Developing Simulated Cyber Attack Scenarios Against Virtualized Adversary Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

MAST is a custom software framework originally designed to facilitate the training of network administrators on live networks using SimWare. The MAST...or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services ...scenario development and testing in a virtual test environment. Commercial and custom software tools that provide the ability to conduct network

NEA Mitigation Studies for Short Warning Time Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barbee, Brent; Syal, Megan Bruck; Gisler, Galen

2016-01-01

This talk describes current collaborative research efforts between NASA GSFC and the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) national labs (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) to design systems and frameworks for robust responses to short warning time near-Earth asteroid (NEA) scenarios, in which we would have less than 10 years to respond to an NEA on its way to impact the Earth.

Implementing the water framework directive: contract design and the cost of measures to reduce nitrogen pollution from agriculture.

PubMed

Bartolini, Fabio; Gallerani, Vittorio; Raggi, Meri; Viaggi, Davide

2007-10-01

The performance of different policy design strategies is a key issue in evaluating programmes for water quality improvement under the Water Framework Directive (60/2000). This issue is emphasised by information asymmetries between regulator and agents. Using an economic model under asymmetric information, the aim of this paper is to compare the cost-effectiveness of selected methods of designing payments to farmers in order to reduce nitrogen pollution in agriculture. A principal-agent model is used, based on profit functions generated through farm-level linear programming. This allows a comparison of flat rate payments and a menu of contracts developed through mechanism design. The model is tested in an area of Emilia Romagna (Italy) in two policy contexts: Agenda 2000 and the 2003 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform. The results show that different policy design options lead to differences in policy costs as great as 200-400%, with clear advantages for the menu of contracts. However, different policy scenarios may strongly affect such differences. Hence, the paper calls for greater attention to the interplay between CAP scenarios and water quality measures.

Implementing the Water Framework Directive: Contract Design and the Cost of Measures to Reduce Nitrogen Pollution from Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartolini, Fabio; Gallerani, Vittorio; Raggi, Meri; Viaggi, Davide

2007-10-01

The performance of different policy design strategies is a key issue in evaluating programmes for water quality improvement under the Water Framework Directive (60/2000). This issue is emphasised by information asymmetries between regulator and agents. Using an economic model under asymmetric information, the aim of this paper is to compare the cost-effectiveness of selected methods of designing payments to farmers in order to reduce nitrogen pollution in agriculture. A principal-agent model is used, based on profit functions generated through farm-level linear programming. This allows a comparison of flat rate payments and a menu of contracts developed through mechanism design. The model is tested in an area of Emilia Romagna (Italy) in two policy contexts: Agenda 2000 and the 2003 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform. The results show that different policy design options lead to differences in policy costs as great as 200-400%, with clear advantages for the menu of contracts. However, different policy scenarios may strongly affect such differences. Hence, the paper calls for greater attention to the interplay between CAP scenarios and water quality measures.

Designing Agent Collectives For Systems With Markovian Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolpert, David H.; Lawson, John W.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The "Collective Intelligence" (COIN) framework concerns the design of collectives of agents so that as those agents strive to maximize their individual utility functions, their interaction causes a provided "world" utility function concerning the entire collective to be also maximized. Here we show how to extend that framework to scenarios having Markovian dynamics when no re-evolution of the system from counter-factual initial conditions (an often expensive calculation) is permitted. Our approach transforms the (time-extended) argument of each agent's utility function before evaluating that function. This transformation has benefits in scenarios not involving Markovian dynamics, in particular scenarios where not all of the arguments of an agent's utility function are observable. We investigate this transformation in simulations involving both linear and quadratic (nonlinear) dynamics. In addition, we find that a certain subset of these transformations, which result in utilities that have low "opacity (analogous to having high signal to noise) but are not "factored" (analogous to not being incentive compatible), reliably improve performance over that arising with factored utilities. We also present a Taylor Series method for the fully general nonlinear case.

A Framework For Analysis Of Coastal Infrastructure Vunerabilty To Global Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Veatch, W.; Marzion, R.; Moritz, H.; Moritz, H. R.

2017-12-01

Recorded impacts of global sea rise on coastal water levels have been documented over the past 100 to 150 years. In the recent 40 years the assumption of hydrologic stationarity has been recognized as invalid. New coastal infrastructure designs must recognize the paradigm shift from hydrologic stationarity to non-stationarity in coastal hydrology. A framework for the evaluation of existing coastal infrastructure is proposed to effectively assess design vulnerability. Two data sets developed from existing structures are chosen to test a proposed framework for vunerabilty to global sea level rise, with the proposed name Climate Preparedness and Resilience Register (CPRR). The CPRR framework consists of four major elements; Datum Adjustment, Coastal Water Levels, Scenario Projections and Performance Thresholds.

Bridging the sanitation gap between disaster relief and development.

PubMed

Lai, Ka-Man; Ramirez, Claudia; Liu, Weilong; Kirilova, Darina; Vick, David; Mari, Joe; Smith, Rachel; Lam, Ho-Yin; Ostovari, Afshin; Shibakawa, Akifumi; Liu, Yang; Samant, Sidharth; Osaro, Lucky

2015-10-01

By interpreting disasters as opportunities to initiate the fulfilment of development needs, realise the vulnerability of the affected community and environment, and extend the legacy of relief funds and effort, this paper builds upon the concept linking relief, rehabilitation and development (LRRD) in the sanitation sector. It aims to use a composite of case studies to devise a framework for a semi-hypothetical scenario to identify critical components and generic processes for a LRRD action plan. The scenario is based on a latrine wetland sanitation system in a Muslim community. Several sub-frameworks are developed: (i) latrine design; (ii) assessment of human waste treatment; (iii) connective sanitation promotion strategy; and (iv) ecological systems and environmental services for sanitation and development. This scenario illustrates the complex issues involved in LRRD in sanitation work and provides technical notes and references for a legacy plan for disaster relief and development. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

Automatic Earth observation data service based on reusable geo-processing workflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Nengcheng; Di, Liping; Gong, Jianya; Yu, Genong; Min, Min

2008-12-01

A common Sensor Web data service framework for Geo-Processing Workflow (GPW) is presented as part of the NASA Sensor Web project. This framework consists of a data service node, a data processing node, a data presentation node, a Catalogue Service node and BPEL engine. An abstract model designer is used to design the top level GPW model, model instantiation service is used to generate the concrete BPEL, and the BPEL execution engine is adopted. The framework is used to generate several kinds of data: raw data from live sensors, coverage or feature data, geospatial products, or sensor maps. A scenario for an EO-1 Sensor Web data service for fire classification is used to test the feasibility of the proposed framework. The execution time and influences of the service framework are evaluated. The experiments show that this framework can improve the quality of services for sensor data retrieval and processing.

Automatic Synthesis of UML Designs from Requirements in an Iterative Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schumann, Johann; Whittle, Jon; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Unified Modeling Language (UML) is gaining wide popularity for the design of object-oriented systems. UML combines various object-oriented graphical design notations under one common framework. A major factor for the broad acceptance of UML is that it can be conveniently used in a highly iterative, Use Case (or scenario-based) process (although the process is not a part of UML). Here, the (pre-) requirements for the software are specified rather informally as Use Cases and a set of scenarios. A scenario can be seen as an individual trace of a software artifact. Besides first sketches of a class diagram to illustrate the static system breakdown, scenarios are a favorite way of communication with the customer, because scenarios describe concrete interactions between entities and are thus easy to understand. Scenarios with a high level of detail are often expressed as sequence diagrams. Later in the design and implementation stage (elaboration and implementation phases), a design of the system's behavior is often developed as a set of statecharts. From there (and the full-fledged class diagram), actual code development is started. Current commercial UML tools support this phase by providing code generators for class diagrams and statecharts. In practice, it can be observed that the transition from requirements to design to code is a highly iterative process. In this talk, a set of algorithms is presented which perform reasonable synthesis and transformations between different UML notations (sequence diagrams, Object Constraint Language (OCL) constraints, statecharts). More specifically, we will discuss the following transformations: Statechart synthesis, introduction of hierarchy, consistency of modifications, and "design-debugging".

A concept ideation framework for medical device design.

PubMed

Hagedorn, Thomas J; Grosse, Ian R; Krishnamurty, Sundar

2015-06-01

Medical device design is a challenging process, often requiring collaboration between medical and engineering domain experts. This collaboration can be best institutionalized through systematic knowledge transfer between the two domains coupled with effective knowledge management throughout the design innovation process. Toward this goal, we present the development of a semantic framework for medical device design that unifies a large medical ontology with detailed engineering functional models along with the repository of design innovation information contained in the US Patent Database. As part of our development, existing medical, engineering, and patent document ontologies were modified and interlinked to create a comprehensive medical device innovation and design tool with appropriate properties and semantic relations to facilitate knowledge capture, enrich existing knowledge, and enable effective knowledge reuse for different scenarios. The result is a Concept Ideation Framework for Medical Device Design (CIFMeDD). Key features of the resulting framework include function-based searching and automated inter-domain reasoning to uniquely enable identification of functionally similar procedures, tools, and inventions from multiple domains based on simple semantic searches. The significance and usefulness of the resulting framework for aiding in conceptual design and innovation in the medical realm are explored via two case studies examining medical device design problems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards a Framework for Evolvable Network Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Hoda; Eltarras, Ramy; Eltoweissy, Mohamed

The layered Internet architecture that had long guided network design and protocol engineering was an “interconnection architecture” defining a framework for interconnecting networks rather than a model for generic network structuring and engineering. We claim that the approach of abstracting the network in terms of an internetwork hinders the thorough understanding of the network salient characteristics and emergent behavior resulting in impeding design evolution required to address extreme scale, heterogeneity, and complexity. This paper reports on our work in progress that aims to: 1) Investigate the problem space in terms of the factors and decisions that influenced the design and development of computer networks; 2) Sketch the core principles for designing complex computer networks; and 3) Propose a model and related framework for building evolvable, adaptable and self organizing networks We will adopt a bottom up strategy primarily focusing on the building unit of the network model, which we call the “network cell”. The model is inspired by natural complex systems. A network cell is intrinsically capable of specialization, adaptation and evolution. Subsequently, we propose CellNet; a framework for evolvable network design. We outline scenarios for using the CellNet framework to enhance legacy Internet protocol stack.

A new framework to increase the efficiency of large-scale solar power plants.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alimohammadi, Shahrouz; Kleissl, Jan P.

2015-11-01

A new framework to estimate the spatio-temporal behavior of solar power is introduced, which predicts the statistical behavior of power output at utility scale Photo-Voltaic (PV) power plants. The framework is based on spatio-temporal Gaussian Processes Regression (Kriging) models, which incorporates satellite data with the UCSD version of the Weather and Research Forecasting model. This framework is designed to improve the efficiency of the large-scale solar power plants. The results are also validated from measurements of the local pyranometer sensors, and some improvements in different scenarios are observed. Solar energy.

Proscene: A feature-rich framework for interactive environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charalambos, Jean Pierre

We introduce Proscene, a feature-rich, open-source framework for interactive environments. The design of Proscene comprises a three-layered onion-like software architecture, promoting different possible development scenarios. The framework innermost layer decouples user gesture parsing from user-defined actions. The in-between layer implements a feature-rich set of widely-used motion actions allowing the selection and manipulation of objects, including the scene viewpoint. The outermost layer exposes those features as a Processing library. The results have shown the feasibility of our approach together with the simplicity and flexibility of the Proscene framework API.

Flood hazard assessment for french NPPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebour, Vincent; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Guimier, Laurent

2015-04-01

This paper presents the approach for flood hazard assessment for NPP which is on-going in France in the framework of post-Fukushima activities. These activities were initially defined considering both European "stress tests" of NPPs pursuant to the request of the European Council, and the French safety audit of civilian nuclear facilities in the light of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. The main actors in that process are the utility (EDF is, up to date, the unique NPP's operator in France), the regulatory authority (ASN) and its technical support organization (IRSN). This paper was prepared by IRSN, considering official positions of the other main actors in the current review process, it was not officially endorsed by them. In France, flood hazard to be considered for design basis definition (for new NPPs and for existing NPPs in periodic safety reviews conducted every 10 years) was revised before Fukushima-Daichi accident, due to le Blayais NPP December 1999 experience (partial site flooding and loss of some safety classified systems). The paper presents in the first part an overview of the revised guidance for design basis flood. In order to address design extension conditions (conditions that could result from natural events exceeding the design basis events), a set of flooding scenarios have been defined by adding margins on the scenarios that are considered for the design. Due to the diversity of phenomena to be considered for flooding hazard, the margin assessment is specific to each flooding scenario in terms of parameter to be penalized and of degree of variation of this parameter. The general approach to address design extension conditions is presented in the second part of the paper. The next parts present the approach for five flooding scenarios including design basis scenario and additional margin to define design extension scenarios.

Safer passenger car front shapes for pedestrians: A computational approach to reduce overall pedestrian injury risk in realistic impact scenarios.

PubMed

Li, Guibing; Yang, Jikuang; Simms, Ciaran

2017-03-01

Vehicle front shape has a significant influence on pedestrian injuries and the optimal design for overall pedestrian protection remains an elusive goal, especially considering the variability of vehicle-to-pedestrian accident scenarios. Therefore this study aims to develop and evaluate an efficient framework for vehicle front shape optimization for pedestrian protection accounting for the broad range of real world impact scenarios and their distributions in recent accident data. Firstly, a framework for vehicle front shape optimization for pedestrian protection was developed based on coupling of multi-body simulations and a genetic algorithm. This framework was then applied for optimizing passenger car front shape for pedestrian protection, and its predictions were evaluated using accident data and kinematic analyses. The results indicate that the optimization shows a good convergence and predictions of the optimization framework are corroborated when compared to the available accident data, and the optimization framework can distinguish 'good' and 'poor' vehicle front shapes for pedestrian safety. Thus, it is feasible and reliable to use the optimization framework for vehicle front shape optimization for reducing overall pedestrian injury risk. The results also show the importance of considering the broad range of impact scenarios in vehicle front shape optimization. A safe passenger car for overall pedestrian protection should have a wide and flat bumper (covering pedestrians' legs from the lower leg up to the shaft of the upper leg with generally even contacts), a bonnet leading edge height around 750mm, a short bonnet (<800mm) with a shallow or steep angle (either >17° or <12°) and a shallow windscreen (≤30°). Sensitivity studies based on simulations at the population level indicate that the demands for a safe passenger car front shape for head and leg protection are generally consistent, but partially conflict with pelvis protection. In particular, both head and leg injury risk increase with increasing bumper lower height and depth, and decrease with increasing bonnet leading edge height, while pelvis injury risk increases with increasing bonnet leading edge height. However, the effects of bonnet leading edge height and windscreen design on head injury risk are complex and require further analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data-Adaptable Modeling and Optimization for Runtime Adaptable Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-08

execution scenarios e . Enables model -guided optimization algorithms that outperform state-of-the-art f. Understands the overhead of system...the Data-Adaptable System Model (DASM), that facilitates design by enabling the designer to: 1) specify both an application’s task flow as well as...systems. The MILAN [3] framework specializes in the design, simulation , and synthesis of System On Chip (SoC) applications using model -based techniques

Towards a framework for geospatial tangible user interfaces in collaborative urban planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maquil, Valérie; Leopold, Ulrich; De Sousa, Luís Moreira; Schwartz, Lou; Tobias, Eric

2018-04-01

The increasing complexity of urban planning projects today requires new approaches to better integrate stakeholders with different professional backgrounds throughout a city. Traditional tools used in urban planning are designed for experts and offer little opportunity for participation and collaborative design. This paper introduces the concept of geospatial tangible user interfaces (GTUI) and reports on the design and implementation as well as the usability of such a GTUI to support stakeholder participation in collaborative urban planning. The proposed system uses physical objects to interact with large digital maps and geospatial data projected onto a tabletop. It is implemented using a PostGIS database, a web map server providing OGC web services, the computer vision framework reacTIVision, a Java-based TUIO client, and GeoTools. We describe how a GTUI has be instantiated and evaluated within the scope of two case studies related to real world collaborative urban planning scenarios. Our results confirm the feasibility of our proposed GTUI solutions to (a) instantiate different urban planning scenarios, (b) support collaboration, and (c) ensure an acceptable usability.

Towards a framework for geospatial tangible user interfaces in collaborative urban planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maquil, Valérie; Leopold, Ulrich; De Sousa, Luís Moreira; Schwartz, Lou; Tobias, Eric

2018-03-01

The increasing complexity of urban planning projects today requires new approaches to better integrate stakeholders with different professional backgrounds throughout a city. Traditional tools used in urban planning are designed for experts and offer little opportunity for participation and collaborative design. This paper introduces the concept of geospatial tangible user interfaces (GTUI) and reports on the design and implementation as well as the usability of such a GTUI to support stakeholder participation in collaborative urban planning. The proposed system uses physical objects to interact with large digital maps and geospatial data projected onto a tabletop. It is implemented using a PostGIS database, a web map server providing OGC web services, the computer vision framework reacTIVision, a Java-based TUIO client, and GeoTools. We describe how a GTUI has be instantiated and evaluated within the scope of two case studies related to real world collaborative urban planning scenarios. Our results confirm the feasibility of our proposed GTUI solutions to (a) instantiate different urban planning scenarios, (b) support collaboration, and (c) ensure an acceptable usability.

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. R.

2013-12-01

In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide a firm basis for future climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, offering RCP/SSP-based scenarios that are not only related to the global New Scenarios Framework, but are also recognised by national policy makers and key stakeholders, via the revised national climate change adaptation strategy. References IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Nakićenović, N. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, 600 pp. Kriegler E et al. (2012) The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Envir. Change 22:807-822. Marttila V et al. (2005) Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, MMM publications 1a/2005, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki, Finland, 280 pp. Moss RH et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-756. Taylor KE et al. (2012) A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. BAMS 93:485-498. van Vuuren DP et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109:5-31. Vautard R et al. (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z

Designing Agent Collectives For Systems With Markovian Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolpert, David H.; Lawson, John W.

2004-01-01

The Collective Intelligence (COIN) framework concerns the design of collectives of agents so that as those agents strive to maximize their individual utility functions, their interaction causes a provided world utility function concerning the entire collective to be also maximized. Here we show how to extend that framework to scenarios having Markovian dynamics when no re-evolution of the system from counter-factual initial conditions (an often expensive calculation) is permitted. Our approach transforms the (time-extended) argument of each agent's utility function before evaluating that function. This transformation has benefits in scenarios not involving Markovian dynamics of an agent's utility function are observable. We investigate this transformation in simulations involving both hear and quadratic (nonlinear) dynamics. In addition, we find that a certain subset of these transformations, which result in utilities that have low opacity (analogous to having high signal to noise) but are not factored (analogous to not being incentive compatible), reliably improve performance over that arising with factored utilities. We also present a Taylor Series method for the fully general nonlinear case.

Smart manufacturing systems for Industry 4.0: Conceptual framework, scenarios, and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Pai; wang, Honghui; Sang, Zhiqian; Zhong, Ray Y.; Liu, Yongkui; Liu, Chao; Mubarok, Khamdi; Yu, Shiqiang; Xu, Xun

2018-06-01

Information and communication technology is undergoing rapid development, and many disruptive technologies, such as cloud computing, Internet of Things, big data, and artificial intelligence, have emerged. These technologies are permeating the manufacturing industry and enable the fusion of physical and virtual worlds through cyber-physical systems (CPS), which mark the advent of the fourth stage of industrial production (i.e., Industry 4.0). The widespread application of CPS in manufacturing environments renders manufacturing systems increasingly smart. To advance research on the implementation of Industry 4.0, this study examines smart manufacturing systems for Industry 4.0. First, a conceptual framework of smart manufacturing systems for Industry 4.0 is presented. Second, demonstrative scenarios that pertain to smart design, smart machining, smart control, smart monitoring, and smart scheduling, are presented. Key technologies and their possible applications to Industry 4.0 smart manufacturing systems are reviewed based on these demonstrative scenarios. Finally, challenges and future perspectives are identified and discussed.

DECHADE: DEtecting slight Changes with HArd DEcisions in Wireless Sensor Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciuonzo, D.; Salvo Rossi, P.

2018-07-01

This paper focuses on the problem of change detection through a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) whose nodes report only binary decisions (on the presence/absence of a certain event to be monitored), due to bandwidth/energy constraints. The resulting problem can be modelled as testing the equality of samples drawn from independent Bernoulli probability mass functions, when the bit probabilities under both hypotheses are not known. Both One-Sided (OS) and Two-Sided (TS) tests are considered, with reference to: (i) identical bit probability (a homogeneous scenario), (ii) different per-sensor bit probabilities (a non-homogeneous scenario) and (iii) regions with identical bit probability (a block-homogeneous scenario) for the observed samples. The goal is to provide a systematic framework collecting a plethora of viable detectors (designed via theoretically founded criteria) which can be used for each instance of the problem. Finally, verification of the derived detectors in two relevant WSN-related problems is provided to show the appeal of the proposed framework.

ANOPP2 User's Manual: Version 1.2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopes, L. V.; Burley, C. L.

2016-01-01

This manual documents the Aircraft NOise Prediction Program 2 (ANOPP2). ANOPP2 is a toolkit that includes a framework, noise prediction methods, and peripheral software to aid a user in predicting and understanding aircraft noise. This manual includes an explanation of the overall design and structure of ANOPP2, including a brief introduction to aircraft noise prediction and the ANOPP2 background, philosophy, and architecture. The concept of nested acoustic data surfaces and its application to a mixed-fidelity noise prediction are presented. The structure and usage of ANOPP2, which includes the communication between the user, the ANOPP2 framework, and noise prediction methods, are presented for two scenarios: wind-tunnel and flight. These scenarios serve to provide the user with guidance and documentation references for performing a noise prediction using ANOPP2.

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework

PubMed Central

Warszawski, Lila; Frieler, Katja; Huber, Veronika; Piontek, Franziska; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schewe, Jacob

2014-01-01

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives and framework of the first, fast-tracked phase of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, based on global impact models, and provides an overview of the participating models, input data, and scenario set-up. PMID:24344316

Assessment of Surface Air Temperature over China Using Multi-criterion Model Ensemble Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Zhu, Q.; Su, L.; He, X.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

The General Circulation Models (GCMs) are designed to simulate the present climate and project future trends. It has been noticed that the performances of GCMs are not always in agreement with each other over different regions. Model ensemble techniques have been developed to post-process the GCMs' outputs and improve their prediction reliabilities. To evaluate the performances of GCMs, root-mean-square error, correlation coefficient, and uncertainty are commonly used statistical measures. However, the simultaneous achievements of these satisfactory statistics cannot be guaranteed when using many model ensemble techniques. Meanwhile, uncertainties and future scenarios are critical for Water-Energy management and operation. In this study, a new multi-model ensemble framework was proposed. It uses a state-of-art evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm, termed Multi-Objective Complex Evolution Global Optimization with Principle Component Analysis and Crowding Distance (MOSPD), to derive optimal GCM ensembles and demonstrate the trade-offs among various solutions. Such trade-off information was further analyzed with a robust Pareto front with respect to different statistical measures. A case study was conducted to optimize the surface air temperature (SAT) ensemble solutions over seven geographical regions of China for the historical period (1900-2005) and future projection (2006-2100). The results showed that the ensemble solutions derived with MOSPD algorithm are superior over the simple model average and any single model output during the historical simulation period. For the future prediction, the proposed ensemble framework identified that the largest SAT change would occur in the South Central China under RCP 2.6 scenario, North Eastern China under RCP 4.5 scenario, and North Western China under RCP 8.5 scenario, while the smallest SAT change would occur in the Inner Mongolia under RCP 2.6 scenario, South Central China under RCP 4.5 scenario, and South Central China under RCP 8.5 scenario.

A tool for the consensual analysis of decision-making scenarios.

PubMed

Hunt, Geoffrey; Merzeder, Christine; Bischofberger, Iren

2018-05-01

The authors believe there is a need for novel ways of enhancing professional judgment and discretion in the contemporary healthcare environment. The objective is to provide a framework to guide a discursive analysis of an ongoing clinical scenario by a small group of healthcare professionals (4-12) to achieve consensual understanding in the decision-making necessary to resolve specific healthcare inadequacies and promote organisational learning. REPVAD is an acronym for the framework's five decision-making dimensions of reasoning, evidence, procedures, values, attitudes and defences. The design is set out in terms of well-defined definitions of the dimensions, a rationale for using REPVAD, and explications of dimensions one at a time. Furthermore, the REPVAD process of application to a scenario is set out, and a didactic scenario is given to show how REPVAD works together with a sample case. A discussion is fleshed out in four real life student cases, and a conclusion indicates strengths and weaknesses and the possibility of further development and transferability. In terms of findings, the model has been tried, tested and refined over a number of years in the development of advanced practitioners at university healthcare faculties in two European countries. Consent was obtained from the four participating students.

Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) Sensitivity Analysis Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Meemong; Bowman, Kevin

2014-01-01

Geostationary Coastal and Air pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) is a NASA decadal survey mission to be designed to provide surface reflectance at high spectral, spatial, and temporal resolutions from a geostationary orbit necessary for studying regional-scale air quality issues and their impact on global atmospheric composition processes. GEO-CAPE's Atmospheric Science Questions explore the influence of both gases and particles on air quality, atmospheric composition, and climate. The objective of the GEO-CAPE Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is to analyze the sensitivity of ozone to the global and regional NOx emissions and improve the science impact of GEO-CAPE with respect to the global air quality. The GEO-CAPE OSSE team at Jet propulsion Laboratory has developed a comprehensive OSSE framework that can perform adjoint-sensitivity analysis for a wide range of observation scenarios and measurement qualities. This report discusses the OSSE framework and presents the sensitivity analysis results obtained from the GEO-CAPE OSSE framework for seven observation scenarios and three instrument systems.

Impacts of Transit-Oriented Compact-Growth on Air Pollutant Concentrations and Exposures in the Tampa Region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-03-31

Amy L. Stuart (ORCID # 0000-0003-1229-493) The objective of this study was to model the potential impacts of alternative transit-oriented urban design scenarios on community exposures to roadway air pollution. We used a modeling framework developed p...

A software framework for developing measurement applications under variable requirements.

PubMed

Arpaia, Pasquale; Buzio, Marco; Fiscarelli, Lucio; Inglese, Vitaliano

2012-11-01

A framework for easily developing software for measurement and test applications under highly and fast-varying requirements is proposed. The framework allows the software quality, in terms of flexibility, usability, and maintainability, to be maximized. Furthermore, the development effort is reduced and finalized, by relieving the test engineer of development details. The framework can be configured for satisfying a large set of measurement applications in a generic field for an industrial test division, a test laboratory, or a research center. As an experimental case study, the design, the implementation, and the assessment inside the application to a measurement scenario of magnet testing at the European Organization for Nuclear Research is reported.

Using Game Theoretic Models to Predict Pilot Behavior in NextGen Merging and Landing Scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yildiz, Yildiray; Lee, Ritchie; Brat, Guillaume

2012-01-01

In this paper, we present an implementation of the Semi Network-Form Game framework to predict pilot behavior in a merging and landing scenario. In this scenario, two aircraft are approaching to a freeze horizon with approximately equal distance when they become aware of each other via an ADS-B communication link that will be available in NextGen airspace. Both pilots want to gain advantage over the other by entering the freeze horizon earlier and obtain the first place in landing. They re-adjust their speed accordingly. However, they cannot simply increase their speed to the maximum allowable values since they are concerned with safety, separation distance, effort, possibility of being vectored-off from landing and possibility of violating speed constraints. We present how to model these concerns and the rest of the system using semi network-from game framework. Using this framework, based on certain assumptions on pilot utility functions and on system configuration, we provide estimates of pilot behavior and overall system evolution in time. We also discuss the possible employment of this modeling tool for airspace design optimization. To support this discussion, we provide a case where we investigate the effect of increasing the merging point speed limit on the commanded speed distribution and on the percentage of vectored aircraft.

A simulation framework for mapping risks in clinical processes: the case of in-patient transfers.

PubMed

Dunn, Adam G; Ong, Mei-Sing; Westbrook, Johanna I; Magrabi, Farah; Coiera, Enrico; Wobcke, Wayne

2011-05-01

To model how individual violations in routine clinical processes cumulatively contribute to the risk of adverse events in hospital using an agent-based simulation framework. An agent-based simulation was designed to model the cascade of common violations that contribute to the risk of adverse events in routine clinical processes. Clinicians and the information systems that support them were represented as a group of interacting agents using data from direct observations. The model was calibrated using data from 101 patient transfers observed in a hospital and results were validated for one of two scenarios (a misidentification scenario and an infection control scenario). Repeated simulations using the calibrated model were undertaken to create a distribution of possible process outcomes. The likelihood of end-of-chain risk is the main outcome measure, reported for each of the two scenarios. The simulations demonstrate end-of-chain risks of 8% and 24% for the misidentification and infection control scenarios, respectively. Over 95% of the simulations in both scenarios are unique, indicating that the in-patient transfer process diverges from prescribed work practices in a variety of ways. The simulation allowed us to model the risk of adverse events in a clinical process, by generating the variety of possible work subject to violations, a novel prospective risk analysis method. The in-patient transfer process has a high proportion of unique trajectories, implying that risk mitigation may benefit from focusing on reducing complexity rather than augmenting the process with further rule-based protocols.

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, B.; Melaina, M.; Penev, M.

This report describes the development and analysis of detailed temporal and spatial scenarios for early market hydrogen fueling infrastructure clustering and fuel cell electric vehicle rollout using the Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization and Analysis (SERA) model. The report provides an overview of the SERA scenario development framework and discusses the approach used to develop the nationwidescenario.

Learning Theories 101: Application to Everyday Teaching and Scholarship

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kay, Denise; Kibble, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Shifts in educational research, in how scholarship in higher education is defined, and in how funding is appropriated suggest that educators within basic science fields can benefit from increased understanding of learning theory and how it applies to classroom practice. This article uses a mock curriculum design scenario as a framework for the…

Gamification: A Systematic Review of Design Frameworks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mora, Alberto; Riera, Daniel; González, Carina; Arnedo-Moreno, Joan

2017-01-01

Learner's motivation difficulties are recognized as a problem in diverse educational scenarios, reaching up to university degrees. Among other techniques that are often applied by instructors to counteract this issue, those related to the use of gaming elements seem to very promising. In this context, considering the use of game-like properties in…

Exploration of a Contextual Management Framework for Strategic Learning Alliances

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dealtry, Richard

2008-01-01

Purpose: This article aims to take a further step forward in examining those important business factors that will shape the future of best practice in the quality management of internal and external strategic alliances. Design/methodology/approach: The article presents a speculative scenario on the future of strategic alliances in education,…

A Mobile Service Oriented Multiple Object Tracking Augmented Reality Architecture for Education and Learning Experiences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rattanarungrot, Sasithorn; White, Martin; Newbury, Paul

2014-01-01

This paper describes the design of our service-oriented architecture to support mobile multiple object tracking augmented reality applications applied to education and learning scenarios. The architecture is composed of a mobile multiple object tracking augmented reality client, a web service framework, and dynamic content providers. Tracking of…

A Framework for Human Performance Criteria for Advanced Reactor Operational Concepts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacques V Hugo; David I Gertman; Jeffrey C Joe

2014-08-01

This report supports the determination of new Operational Concept models needed in support of the operational design of new reactors. The objective of this research is to establish the technical bases for human performance and human performance criteria frameworks, models, and guidance for operational concepts for advanced reactor designs. The report includes a discussion of operating principles for advanced reactors, the human performance issues and requirements for human performance based upon work domain analysis and current regulatory requirements, and a description of general human performance criteria. The major findings and key observations to date are that there is some operatingmore » experience that informs operational concepts for baseline designs for SFR and HGTRs, with the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II) as a best-case predecessor design. This report summarizes the theoretical and operational foundations for the development of a framework and model for human performance criteria that will influence the development of future Operational Concepts. The report also highlights issues associated with advanced reactor design and clarifies and codifies the identified aspects of technology and operating scenarios.« less

Operational concepts and implementation strategies for the design configuration management process.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trauth, Sharon Lee

2007-05-01

This report describes operational concepts and implementation strategies for the Design Configuration Management Process (DCMP). It presents a process-based systems engineering model for the successful configuration management of the products generated during the operation of the design organization as a business entity. The DCMP model focuses on Pro/E and associated activities and information. It can serve as the framework for interconnecting all essential aspects of the product design business. A design operation scenario offers a sense of how to do business at a time when DCMP is second nature within the design organization.

Multi-Scenario Use Case based Demonstration of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework Webtool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil G.; Mylrea, Michael E.; Gervais, Easton L.

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the cybersecurity and software capabilities of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework (BCF) webtool. The webtool is designed based on BCF document and existing NIST standards. It’s capabilities and features are depicted through a building usecase with four different investment scenarios geared towards improving the cybersecurity posture of the building. BCF webtool also facilitates implementation of the goals outlined in Presidential Executive Order (EO) on Strengthening the Cybersecurity of Federal Networks and Critical Infrastructure (May 2017. In realization of the EO goals, BCF includes five core elements: Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, and Recover, to helpmore » determine various policy and process level vulnerabilities and provide mitigation strategies. With the BCF webtool, an organization can perform a cybersecurity self-assessment; determine the current cybersecurity posture; define investment based goals to achieve a target state; connect the cybersecurity posture with business processes, functions, and continuity; and finally, develop plans to answer critical organizational cybersecurity questions. In this paper, the webtool and its core capabilities are depicted by performing an extensive comparative assessment over four different scenarios.« less

Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai

2018-05-01

Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

A framework of knowledge creation processes in participatory simulation of hospital work systems.

PubMed

Andersen, Simone Nyholm; Broberg, Ole

2017-04-01

Participatory simulation (PS) is a method to involve workers in simulating and designing their own future work system. Existing PS studies have focused on analysing the outcome, and minimal attention has been devoted to the process of creating this outcome. In order to study this process, we suggest applying a knowledge creation perspective. The aim of this study was to develop a framework describing the process of how ergonomics knowledge is created in PS. Video recordings from three projects applying PS of hospital work systems constituted the foundation of process mining analysis. The analysis resulted in a framework revealing the sources of ergonomics knowledge creation as sequential relationships between the activities of simulation participants sharing work experiences; experimenting with scenarios; and reflecting on ergonomics consequences. We argue that this framework reveals the hidden steps of PS that are essential when planning and facilitating PS that aims at designing work systems. Practitioner Summary: When facilitating participatory simulation (PS) in work system design, achieving an understanding of the PS process is essential. By applying a knowledge creation perspective and process mining, we investigated the knowledge-creating activities constituting the PS process. The analysis resulted in a framework of the knowledge-creating process in PS.

Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Flood Risks in Aging-Dam Management in China: A Framework and Case Study

PubMed Central

Yang, Meng; Qian, Xin; Zhang, Yuchao; Sheng, Jinbao; Shen, Dengle; Ge, Yi

2011-01-01

Approximately 30,000 dams in China are aging and are considered to be high-level risks. Developing a framework for analyzing spatial multicriteria flood risk is crucial to ranking management scenarios for these dams, especially in densely populated areas. Based on the theories of spatial multicriteria decision analysis, this report generalizes a framework consisting of scenario definition, problem structuring, criteria construction, spatial quantification of criteria, criteria weighting, decision rules, sensitivity analyses, and scenario appraisal. The framework is presented in detail by using a case study to rank dam rehabilitation, decommissioning and existing-condition scenarios. The results show that there was a serious inundation, and that a dam rehabilitation scenario could reduce the multicriteria flood risk by 0.25 in the most affected areas; this indicates a mean risk decrease of less than 23%. Although increased risk (<0.20) was found for some residential and commercial buildings, if the dam were to be decommissioned, the mean risk would not be greater than the current existing risk, indicating that the dam rehabilitation scenario had a higher rank for decreasing the flood risk than the decommissioning scenario, but that dam rehabilitation alone might be of little help in abating flood risk. With adjustments and improvement to the specific methods (according to the circumstances and available data) this framework may be applied to other sites. PMID:21655125

Cost-Effectiveness of Adolescent Pertussis Vaccination for The Netherlands: Using an Individual-Based Dynamic Model

PubMed Central

de Vries, Robin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Schellekens, Joop F. P.; Versteegh, Florens G. A.; Westra, Tjalke A.; Roord, John J.; Postma, Maarten J.

2010-01-01

Background Despite widespread immunization programs, a clear increase in pertussis incidence is apparent in many developed countries during the last decades. Consequently, additional immunization strategies are considered to reduce the burden of disease. The aim of this study is to design an individual-based stochastic dynamic framework to model pertussis transmission in the population in order to predict the epidemiologic and economic consequences of the implementation of universal booster vaccination programs. Using this framework, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of universal adolescent pertussis booster vaccination at the age of 12 years in the Netherlands. Methods/Principal Findings We designed a discrete event simulation (DES) model to predict the epidemiological and economic consequences of implementing universal adolescent booster vaccination. We used national age-specific notification data over the period 1996–2000—corrected for underreporting—to calibrate the model assuming a steady state situation. Subsequently, booster vaccination was introduced. Input parameters of the model were derived from literature, national data sources (e.g. costing data, incidence and hospitalization data) and expert opinions. As there is no consensus on the duration of immunity acquired by natural infection, we considered two scenarios for this duration of protection (i.e. 8 and 15 years). In both scenarios, total pertussis incidence decreased as a result of adolescent vaccination. From a societal perspective, the cost-effectiveness was estimated at €4418/QALY (range: 3205–6364 € per QALY) and €6371/QALY (range: 4139–9549 € per QALY) for the 8- and 15-year protection scenarios, respectively. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the outcomes are most sensitive to the quality of life weights used for pertussis disease. Conclusions/Significance To our knowledge we designed the first individual-based dynamic framework to model pertussis transmission in the population. This study indicates that adolescent pertussis vaccination is likely to be a cost-effective intervention for The Netherlands. The model is suited to investigate further pertussis booster vaccination strategies. PMID:20976213

Semantics-enabled service discovery framework in the SIMDAT pharma grid.

PubMed

Qu, Cangtao; Zimmermann, Falk; Kumpf, Kai; Kamuzinzi, Richard; Ledent, Valérie; Herzog, Robert

2008-03-01

We present the design and implementation of a semantics-enabled service discovery framework in the data Grids for process and product development using numerical simulation and knowledge discovery (SIMDAT) Pharma Grid, an industry-oriented Grid environment for integrating thousands of Grid-enabled biological data services and analysis services. The framework consists of three major components: the Web ontology language (OWL)-description logic (DL)-based biological domain ontology, OWL Web service ontology (OWL-S)-based service annotation, and semantic matchmaker based on the ontology reasoning. Built upon the framework, workflow technologies are extensively exploited in the SIMDAT to assist biologists in (semi)automatically performing in silico experiments. We present a typical usage scenario through the case study of a biological workflow: IXodus.

Decision support framework for evaluating the operational environment of forest bioenergy production and use: Case of four European countries.

PubMed

Pezdevšek Malovrh, Špela; Kurttila, Mikko; Hujala, Teppo; Kärkkäinen, Leena; Leban, Vasja; Lindstad, Berit H; Peters, Dörte Marie; Rhodius, Regina; Solberg, Birger; Wirth, Kristina; Zadnik Stirn, Lidija; Krč, Janez

2016-09-15

Complex policy-making situations around bioenergy production and use require examination of the operational environment of the society and a participatory approach. This paper presents and demonstrates a three-phase decision-making framework for analysing the operational environment of strategies related to increased forest bioenergy targets. The framework is based on SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis and the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). Stakeholders of four case countries (Finland, Germany, Norway and Slovenia) defined the factors that affect the operational environments, classified in four pre-set categories (Forest Characteristics and Management, Policy Framework, Technology and Science, and Consumers and Society). The stakeholders participated in weighting of SWOT items for two future scenarios with SMART technique. The first scenario reflected the current 2020 targets (the Business-as-Usual scenario), and the second scenario contained a further increase in the targets (the Increase scenario). This framework can be applied to various problems of environmental management and also to other fields where public decision-making is combined with stakeholders' engagement. The case results show that the greatest differences between the scenarios appear in Germany, indicating a notably negative outlook for the Increase scenario, while the smallest differences were found in Finland. Policy Framework was a highly rated category across the countries, mainly with respect to weaknesses and threats. Intensified forest bioenergy harvesting and utilization has potentially wide country-specific impacts which need to be anticipated and considered in national policies and public dialogue. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating a Modular Decision Support Application for Colorectal Cancer Screening

PubMed Central

Diiulio, Julie B.; Borders, Morgan R.; Sushereba, Christen E.; Saleem, Jason J.; Haverkamp, Donald; Imperiale, Thomas F.

2017-01-01

Summary Background There is a need for health information technology evaluation that goes beyond randomized controlled trials to include consideration of usability, cognition, feedback from representative users, and impact on efficiency, data quality, and clinical workflow. This article presents an evaluation illustrating one approach to this need using the Decision-Centered Design framework. Objective To evaluate, through a Decision-Centered Design framework, the ability of the Screening and Surveillance App to support primary care clinicians in tracking and managing colorectal cancer testing. Methods We leveraged two evaluation formats, online and in-person, to obtain feedback from a range primary care clinicians and obtain comparative data. Both the online and in-person evaluations used mock patient data to simulate challenging patient scenarios. Primary care clinicians responded to a series of colorectal cancer-related questions about each patient and made recommendations for screening. We collected data on performance, perceived workload, and usability. Key elements of Decision-Centered Design include evaluation in the context of realistic, challenging scenarios and measures designed to explore impact on cognitive performance. Results Comparison of means revealed increases in accuracy, efficiency, and usability and decreases in perceived mental effort and workload when using the Screening and Surveillance App. Conclusion The results speak to the benefits of using the Decision-Centered Design approach in the analysis, design, and evaluation of Health Information Technology. Furthermore, the Screening and Surveillance App shows promise for filling decision support gaps in current electronic health records. PMID:28197619

A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Waldhoff, S.; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, J.; Jantarasami, L.; Shouse, K.; Crimmins, A.; Li, J.

2014-12-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the physical impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change. The primary goal of this framework is to estimate the degree to which climate change impacts and damages in the United States are avoided or reduced in the 21st century under multiple greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation scenarios. The first phase of the CIRA project is a modeling exercise that included two integrated assessment models and 15 sectoral models encompassing five broad impacts sectors: water resources, electric power, infrastructure, human health, and ecosystems. Three consistent socioeconomic and climate scenarios are used to analyze the benefits of global GHG mitigation targets: a reference scenario and two policy scenarios with total radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2. In this exercise, the implications of key uncertainties are explored, including climate sensitivity, climate model, natural variability, and model structures and parameters. This presentation describes the motivations and goals of the CIRA project; the design and academic contribution of the first CIRA modeling exercise; and briefly summarizes several papers published in a special issue of Climatic Change. The results across impact sectors show that GHG mitigation provides benefits to the United States that increase over time, the effects of climate change can be strongly influenced by near-term policy choices, adaptation can reduce net damages, and impacts exhibit spatial and temporal patterns that may inform mitigation and adaptation policy discussions.

Information basis for developing comprehensive waste management system-US-Japan joint nuclear energy action plan waste management working group phase I report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nutt, M.; Nuclear Engineering Division

2010-05-25

The activity of Phase I of the Waste Management Working Group under the United States - Japan Joint Nuclear Energy Action Plan started in 2007. The US-Japan JNEAP is a bilateral collaborative framework to support the global implementation of safe, secure, and sustainable, nuclear fuel cycles (referred to in this document as fuel cycles). The Waste Management Working Group was established by strong interest of both parties, which arise from the recognition that development and optimization of waste management and disposal system(s) are central issues of the present and future nuclear fuel cycles. This report summarizes the activity of themore » Waste Management Working Group that focused on consolidation of the existing technical basis between the U.S. and Japan and the joint development of a plan for future collaborative activities. Firstly, the political/regulatory frameworks related to nuclear fuel cycles in both countries were reviewed. The various advanced fuel cycle scenarios that have been considered in both countries were then surveyed and summarized. The working group established the working reference scenario for the future cooperative activity that corresponds to a fuel cycle scenario being considered both in Japan and the U.S. This working scenario involves transitioning from a once-through fuel cycle utilizing light water reactors to a one-pass uranium-plutonium fuel recycle in light water reactors to a combination of light water reactors and fast reactors with plutonium, uranium, and minor actinide recycle, ultimately concluding with multiple recycle passes primarily using fast reactors. Considering the scenario, current and future expected waste streams, treatment and inventory were discussed, and the relevant information was summarized. Second, the waste management/disposal system optimization was discussed. Repository system concepts were reviewed, repository design concepts for the various classifications of nuclear waste were summarized, and the factors to consider in repository design and optimization were then discussed. Japan is considering various alternatives and options for the geologic disposal facility and the framework for future analysis of repository concepts was discussed. Regarding the advanced waste and storage form development, waste form technologies developed in both countries were surveyed and compared. Potential collaboration areas and activities were next identified. Disposal system optimization processes and techniques were reviewed, and factors to consider in future repository design optimization activities were also discussed. Then the potential collaboration areas and activities related to the optimization problem were extracted.« less

Effectiveness of an Electronic Performance Support System on Computer Ethics and Ethical Decision-Making Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kert, Serhat Bahadir; Uz, Cigdem; Gecu, Zeynep

2014-01-01

This study examined the effectiveness of an electronic performance support system (EPSS) on computer ethics education and the ethical decision-making processes. There were five different phases to this ten month study: (1) Writing computer ethics scenarios, (2) Designing a decision-making framework (3) Developing EPSS software (4) Using EPSS in a…

Scenarios and Strategies for Web 2.0

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Graeme; Reddington, Martin; Kneafsey, Mary Beth; Sloman, Martyn

2009-01-01

Purpose: The aim of this article is to bring together ideas from the authors' review of the Web 2.0 literature, the data and their insights from this and other technology-related projects to produce a framework for strategies on Web 2.0 focusing on the implications for human resource professionals. Design/methodology/approach: The authors discuss…

Putting Order into Our Universe: The Concept of "Blended Learning"--A Methodology within the Concept-Based Terminology Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fernandes, Joana; Costa, Rute; Peres, Paula

2016-01-01

This paper aims at discussing the advantages of a methodology design grounded on a concept-based approach to Terminology applied to the most prominent scenario of current Higher Education: "blended learning." Terminology is a discipline that aims at representing, describing and defining specialized knowledge through language, putting…

Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2012-01-01

The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.

Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guarro, Sergio B.

2010-01-01

This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

Open Scenario Study, Phase I. Volume 3. Questionnaire Response

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

a conceptual framework to assist users to grasp new ideas. As the concepts are used by a broad community and internationally, classified scenarios are...framework to assist users to grasp new ideas. As the concepts are used by a broad community and internationally, classified scenarios are not necessary for...from other sources Comment: Normally have an old version that we can update. Occasionally we’ve had to develop new scenarios - the SSSP for example - we

Proposed Requirements-driven User-scenario Development Protocol for the Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wee, B.; Car, N.; Percivall, G.; Allen, D.; Fitch, P. G.; Baumann, P.; Waldmann, H. C.

2014-12-01

The Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement (CRA) is designed to foster a global community to collaborate on e-infrastructure challenges. One of the deliverables is an implementation plan to address global data infrastructure interoperability challenges and align existing domestic and international capabilities. Work package three (WP3) of the CRA focuses on the harmonization of global data infrastructure for sharing environmental data. One of the subtasks under WP3 is the development of user scenarios that guide the development of applicable deliverables. This paper describes the proposed protocol for user scenario development. It enables the solicitation of user scenarios from a broad constituency, and exposes the mechanisms by which those solicitations are evaluated against requirements that map to the Belmont Challenge. The underlying principle of traceability forms the basis for a structured, requirements-driven approach resulting in work products amenable to trade-off analyses and objective prioritization. The protocol adopts the ISO Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP) as a top level framework. User scenarios are developed within RM-ODP's "Enterprise Viewpoint". To harmonize with existing frameworks, the protocol utilizes the conceptual constructs of "scenarios", "use cases", "use case categories", and use case templates as adopted by recent GEOSS Architecture Implementation Project (AIP) deliverables and CSIRO's eReefs project. These constructs are encapsulated under the larger construct of "user scenarios". Once user scenarios are ranked by goodness-of-fit to the Belmont Challenge, secondary scoring metrics may be generated, like goodness-of-fit to FutureEarth science themes. The protocol also facilitates an assessment of the ease of implementing given user scenario using existing GEOSS AIP deliverables. In summary, the protocol results in a traceability graph that can be extended to coordinate across research programmes. If implemented using appropriate technologies and harmonized with existing ontologies, this approach enables queries, sensitivity analyses, and visualization of complex relationships.

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Task management skills and their deficiencies during care delivery in simulated medical emergency situation: A classification.

PubMed

Morineau, Thierry; Chapelain, Pascal; Quinio, Philippe

2016-06-01

Our objective was to develop the analysis of task management skills by proposing a framework classifying task management stages and deficiencies. Few studies of non-technical skills have detailed the components of task management skills through behavioural markers, despite their central role in care delivery. A post hoc qualitative behavioural analysis was performed of recordings made of professional training sessions based upon simulated scenarios. Four recorded sessions in a high-fidelity simulation setting were observed and recorded. Two scenarios were used (cardiac arrest and respiratory failure), and there were two training sessions per scenario. Four types of task management deficiencies were identified with regards to task constraints: constraint relaxation, unsatisfied constraints, additional constraints and constraint transgression. Both equipment and space constraints were also identified. The lack of prerequisite actions when preparing the environment, corequisite actions for equipment and protocol monitoring, or postrequisite actions to restore the environment were associated with task management deficiencies. Deficiencies in task management behaviours can be identified in simulated as well as actual medical emergency settings. This framework opens perspectives for both training caregivers and designing ergonomic work situations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus

2015-07-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets ofmore » 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.« less

How to assess driver's interaction with partially automated driving systems - A framework for early concept assessment.

PubMed

van den Beukel, Arie P; van der Voort, Mascha C

2017-03-01

The introduction of partially automated driving systems changes the driving task into supervising the automation with an occasional need to intervene. To develop interface solutions that adequately support drivers in this new role, this study proposes and evaluates an assessment framework that allows designers to evaluate driver-support within relevant real-world scenarios. Aspects identified as requiring assessment in terms of driver-support within the proposed framework are Accident Avoidance, gained Situation Awareness (SA) and Concept Acceptance. Measurement techniques selected to operationalise these aspects and the associated framework are pilot-tested with twenty-four participants in a driving simulator experiment. The objective of the test is to determine the reliability of the applied measurements for the assessment of the framework and whether the proposed framework is effective in predicting the level of support offered by the concepts. Based on the congruency between measurement scores produced in the test and scores with predefined differences in concept-support, this study demonstrates the framework's reliability. A remaining concern is the framework's weak sensitivity to small differences in offered support. The article concludes that applying the framework is especially advantageous for evaluating early design phases and can successfully contribute to the efficient development of driver's in-control and safe means of operating partially automated vehicles. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of The Scenarios Designed For The Eu Registration of Pesticides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piñeros Garcet, J. D.; de Nie, D.; Vanclooster, M.; Tiktak, A.; Klein, M.

As part of recent efforts to harmonise registration procedures for pesticides within the EU, a set of uniform principles were developed, setting out the detailed evaluation and decision making criteria for pesticide registration. The EU directive 91/414/EEC places great importance on the use of validated models to calculate Predicted Envi- ronmental Concentrations (PECs), as a basis for assessing the environmental risks and health effects. To be used in a harmonised registration process, the quality of PEC modelling needs to be assured. Quality assurance of mathematical modelling implies, amongst others, the validation of the environmental modelling scenarios. The FOrum for the CO-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe (FOCUS), is the cur- rent platform where common modelling methodologies are designed and subjected for approval to the European authorities. In 2000, the FOCUS groundwater scenarios working group defined the procedures for realising tier 1 PEC groundwater calcula- tions for the active substances of plant protection products at the pan-european level. The procedures and guidelines were approved by the Standing Committee on Plant Health, and are now recommended for tier 1 PEC groundwater calculations in the reg-istration dossier. Yet, the working group also identified a range of uncertainties related to the validity of the present leaching scenarios. To mitigate some of these problems,the EU R&D project APECOP was designed and approved for support in the frame-work of the EU-FP5-Quality of Life Programme. One of the objectives of the project is to evaluate the appropriateness of the current Tier 1 groundwater scenarios. In this paper, we summarise the methodology and results of the scenarios validation.

Decision Manifold Approximation for Physics-Based Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, Jay Ming; Samareh, Jamshid A.

2016-01-01

With the recent surge of success in big-data driven deep learning problems, many of these frameworks focus on the notion of architecture design and utilizing massive databases. However, in some scenarios massive sets of data may be difficult, and in some cases infeasible, to acquire. In this paper we discuss a trajectory-based framework that quickly learns the underlying decision manifold of binary simulation classifications while judiciously selecting exploratory target states to minimize the number of required simulations. Furthermore, we draw particular attention to the simulation prediction application idealized to the case where failures in simulations can be predicted and avoided, providing machine intelligence to novice analysts. We demonstrate this framework in various forms of simulations and discuss its efficacy.

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

PubMed

Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

2017-10-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global changes on the six functional groups, in terms of their epidemiology and of the crop losses they cause. Scenario analysis enables qualitative analysis of complex systems, such as plant pathosystems that are evolving in response to global changes, including climate change and technology shifts. It also provides a useful framework for quantitative simulation modeling analysis for plant disease epidemiology.

A Systems Engineering Approach to Architecture Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Di Pietro, David A.

2014-01-01

Architecture development is conducted prior to system concept design when there is a need to determine the best-value mix of systems that works collectively in specific scenarios and time frames to accomplish a set of mission area objectives. While multiple architecture frameworks exist, they often require use of unique taxonomies and data structures. In contrast, this presentation characterizes architecture development using terminology widely understood within the systems engineering community. Using a notional civil space architecture example, it employs a multi-tier framework to describe the enterprise level architecture and illustrates how results of lower tier, mission area architectures integrate into the enterprise architecture. It also presents practices for conducting effective mission area architecture studies, including establishing the trade space, developing functions and metrics, evaluating the ability of potential design solutions to meet the required functions, and expediting study execution through the use of iterative design cycles.

A Systems Engineering Approach to Architecture Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Di Pietro, David A.

2015-01-01

Architecture development is often conducted prior to system concept design when there is a need to determine the best-value mix of systems that works collectively in specific scenarios and time frames to accomplish a set of mission area objectives. While multiple architecture frameworks exist, they often require use of unique taxonomies and data structures. In contrast, this paper characterizes architecture development using terminology widely understood within the systems engineering community. Using a notional civil space architecture example, it employs a multi-tier framework to describe the enterprise level architecture and illustrates how results of lower tier, mission area architectures integrate into the enterprise architecture. It also presents practices for conducting effective mission area architecture studies, including establishing the trade space, developing functions and metrics, evaluating the ability of potential design solutions to meet the required functions, and expediting study execution through the use of iterative design cycles.

A Systems Engineering Approach to Architecture Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Di Pietro, David A.

2015-01-01

Architecture development is often conducted prior to system concept design when there is a need to determine the best-value mix of systems that works collectively in specific scenarios and time frames to accomplish a set of mission area objectives. While multiple architecture frameworks exist, they often require use of unique taxonomies and data structures. In contrast, this paper characterizes architecture development using terminology widely understood within the systems engineering community. Using a notional civil space architecture example, it employs a multi-tier framework to describe the enterprise level architecture and illustrates how results of lower tier, mission area architectures integrate into the enterprise architecture. It also presents practices for conducting effective mission area architecture studies, including establishing the trade space, developing functions and metrics, evaluating the ability of potential design solutions to meet the required functions, and expediting study execution through the use of iterative design cycles

Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

2007-12-01

There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed, and 3) started implementing it to the city of Kawasaki, Kanagawa, Japan, in cooperation with municipal officials and stakeholders. The participatory process is to develop city-scale environmental scenarios toward low carbon society, referring international and domestic environmental scenarios. Though the scenario development is still in process, it has already brought practical knowledge about and experience on how to bridge scenarios developed for different temporal and spatial scales.

A Step-by-Step Framework on Discrete Events Simulation in Emergency Department; A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Dehghani, Mahsa; Moftian, Nazila; Rezaei-Hachesu, Peyman; Samad-Soltani, Taha

2017-04-01

To systematically review the current literature of simulation in healthcare including the structured steps in the emergency healthcare sector by proposing a framework for simulation in the emergency department. For the purpose of collecting the data, PubMed and ACM databases were used between the years 2003 and 2013. The inclusion criteria were to select English-written articles available in full text with the closest objectives from among a total of 54 articles retrieved from the databases. Subsequently, 11 articles were selected for further analysis. The studies focused on the reduction of waiting time and patient stay, optimization of resources allocation, creation of crisis and maximum demand scenarios, identification of overcrowding bottlenecks, investigation of the impact of other systems on the existing system, and improvement of the system operations and functions. Subsequently, 10 simulation steps were derived from the relevant studies after an expert's evaluation. The 10-steps approach proposed on the basis of the selected studies provides simulation and planning specialists with a structured method for both analyzing problems and choosing best-case scenarios. Moreover, following this framework systematically enables the development of design processes as well as software implementation of simulation problems.

Study of a Fine Grained Threaded Framework Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, C. D.

2012-12-01

Traditionally, HEP experiments exploit the multiple cores in a CPU by having each core process one event. However, future PC designs are expected to use CPUs which double the number of processing cores at the same rate as the cost of memory falls by a factor of two. This effectively means the amount of memory per processing core will remain constant. This is a major challenge for LHC processing frameworks since the LHC is expected to deliver more complex events (e.g. greater pileup events) in the coming years while the LHC experiment's frameworks are already memory constrained. Therefore in the not so distant future we may need to be able to efficiently use multiple cores to process one event. In this presentation we will discuss a design for an HEP processing framework which can allow very fine grained parallelization within one event as well as supporting processing multiple events simultaneously while minimizing the memory footprint of the job. The design is built around the libdispatch framework created by Apple Inc. (a port for Linux is available) whose central concept is the use of task queues. This design also accommodates the reality that not all code will be thread safe and therefore allows one to easily mark modules or sub parts of modules as being thread unsafe. In addition, the design efficiently handles the requirement that events in one run must all be processed before starting to process events from a different run. After explaining the design we will provide measurements from simulating different processing scenarios where the processing times used for the simulation are drawn from processing times measured from actual CMS event processing.

An ORCID based synchronization framework for a national CRIS ecosystem.

PubMed

Mendes Moreira, João; Cunha, Alcino; Macedo, Nuno

2015-01-01

PTCRIS (Portuguese Current Research Information System) is a program aiming at the creation and sustained development of a national integrated information ecosystem, to support research management according to the best international standards and practices. This paper reports on the experience of designing and prototyping a synchronization framework for PTCRIS based on ORCID (Open Researcher and Contributor ID). This framework embraces the "input once, re-use often" principle, and will enable a substantial reduction of the research output management burden by allowing automatic information exchange between the various national systems. The design of the framework followed best practices in rigorous software engineering, namely well-established principles in the research field of consistency management, and relied on formal analysis techniques and tools for its validation and verification. The notion of consistency between the services was formally specified and discussed with the stakeholders before the technical aspects on how to preserve said consistency were explored. Formal specification languages and automated verification tools were used to analyze the specifications and generate usage scenarios, useful for validation with the stakeholder and essential to certificate compliant services.

A benefit/risk approach towards selecting appropriate pharmaceutical dosage forms - an application for paediatric dosage form selection.

PubMed

Sam, Tom; Ernest, Terry B; Walsh, Jennifer; Williams, Julie L

2012-10-05

The design and selection of new pharmaceutical dosage forms involves the careful consideration and balancing of a quality target product profile against technical challenges and development feasibility. Paediatric dosage forms present particular complexity due to the diverse patient population, patient compliance challenges and safety considerations of this vulnerable population. This paper presents a structured framework for assessing the comparative benefits and risks of different pharmaceutical design options against pre-determined criteria relating to (1) efficacy, (2) safety and (3) patient access. This benefit/risk framework has then been applied to three hypothetical, but realistic, scenarios for paediatric dosage forms in order to explore its utility in guiding dosage form design and formulation selection. The approach allows a rigorous, systematic and qualitative assessment of the merits and disadvantages of each dosage form option and helps identify mitigating strategies to modify risk. The application of a weighting and scoring system to the criteria depending on the specific case could further refine the analysis and aid decision-making. In this paper, one case study is scored for illustrative purposes. However, it is acknowledged that in real development scenarios, the generation of actual data considering the very specific situation for the patient/product/developer would come into play to drive decisions on the most appropriate dosage form strategy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

PubMed

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

An Integrated Web-Based 3d Modeling and Visualization Platform to Support Sustainable Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amirebrahimi, S.; Rajabifard, A.

2012-07-01

Sustainable Development is found as the key solution to preserve the sustainability of cities in oppose to ongoing population growth and its negative impacts. This is complex and requires a holistic and multidisciplinary decision making. Variety of stakeholders with different backgrounds also needs to be considered and involved. Numerous web-based modeling and visualization tools have been designed and developed to support this process. There have been some success stories; however, majority failed to bring a comprehensive platform to support different aspects of sustainable development. In this work, in the context of SDI and Land Administration, CSDILA Platform - a 3D visualization and modeling platform -was proposed which can be used to model and visualize different dimensions to facilitate the achievement of sustainability, in particular, in urban context. The methodology involved the design of a generic framework for development of an analytical and visualization tool over the web. CSDILA Platform was then implemented via number of technologies based on the guidelines provided by the framework. The platform has a modular structure and uses Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA). It is capable of managing spatial objects in a 4D data store and can flexibly incorporate a variety of developed models using the platform's API. Development scenarios can be modeled and tested using the analysis and modeling component in the platform and the results are visualized in seamless 3D environment. The platform was further tested using number of scenarios and showed promising results and potentials to serve a wider need. In this paper, the design process of the generic framework, the implementation of CSDILA Platform and technologies used, and also findings and future research directions will be presented and discussed.

Towards a Brokering Framework for Business Process Execution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoro, Mattia; Bigagli, Lorenzo; Roncella, Roberto; Mazzetti, Paolo; Nativi, Stefano

2013-04-01

Advancing our knowledge of environmental phenomena and their interconnections requires an intensive use of environmental models. Due to the complexity of Earth system, the representation of complex environmental processes often requires the use of more than one model (often from different disciplines). The Group on Earth Observation (GEO) launched the Model Web initiative to increase present accessibility and interoperability of environmental models, allowing their flexible composition into complex Business Processes (BPs). A few, basic principles are at the base of the Model Web concept (Nativi, et al.): (i) Open access, (ii) Minimal entry-barriers, (iii) Service-driven approach, and (iv) Scalability. This work proposes an architectural solution, based on the Brokering approach for multidisciplinary interoperability, aiming to contribute to the Model Web vision. The Brokering approach is currently adopted in the new GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI) as was presented at the last GEO Plenary meeting in Istanbul, November 2011. We designed and prototyped a component called BP Broker. The high-level functionalities provided by the BP Broker are: • Discover the needed model implementations in an open, distributed and heterogeneous environment; • Check I/O consistency of BPs and provide suggestions for mismatches resolving: • Publish the EBP as a standard model resource for re-use. • Submit the compiled BP (EBP) to a WF-engine for execution. A BP Broker has the following features: • Support multiple abstract BP specifications; • Support encoding in multiple WF-engine languages. According to the Brokering principles, the designed system is flexible enough to support the use of multiple BP design (visual) tools, heterogeneous Web interfaces for model execution (e.g. OGC WPS, WSDL, etc.), and different Workflow engines. The present implementation makes use of BPMN 2.0 notation for BP design and jBPM workflow engine for eBP execution; however, the strong decoupling which characterizes the design of the BP Broker easily allows supporting other technologies. The main benefits of the proposed approach are: (i) no need for a composition infrastructure, (ii) alleviation from technicalities of workflow definitions, (iii) support of incomplete BPs, and (iv) the reuse of existing BPs as atomic processes. The BP Broker was designed and prototyped in the EC funded projects EuroGEOSS (http://www.eurogeoss.eu) and UncertWeb (http://www.uncertweb.org); the latter project provided also the use scenarios that were used to test the framework: the eHabitat scenario (calculation habitat similarity likelihood) and the FERA scenario (impact of climate change on land-use and crop yield). Three more scenarios are presently under development. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant Agreements n. 248488 and n. 226487. References Nativi, S., Mazzetti, P., & Geller, G. (2012), "Environmental model access and interoperability: The GEO Model Web initiative". Environmental Modelling & Software , 1-15

Verification and optimization of the CFETR baseline scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, D.; Lao, L. L.; Meneghini, O.; Staebler, G. M.; Candy, J.; Smith, S. P.; Snyder, P. B.; Prater, R.; Chen, X.; Chan, V. S.; Li, J.; Chen, J.; Shi, N.; Guo, W.; Pan, C.; Jian, X.

2016-10-01

The baseline scenario of China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) was designed starting from 0D calculations. The CFETR baseline scenario satisfies the minimum goal of Fusion Nuclear Science Facility aimed at bridging the gaps between ITER and DEMO. 1.5D calculations are presented to verify the on-going efforts in higher-dimensional modeling of CFETR. Steady-state scenarios are calculated self-consistently by the OMFIT integrated modeling framework that includes EFIT for equilibrium, ONETWO for sources and current, TGYRO for transport. With 68MW of neutral beam power and 8MW of ECH injected to the plasma, the average ion temperature is maintained at 15keV, while 150MW fusion power is produced. The neutral beams also drive 55% of the plasma current. Modest fast ion diffusion will reduce NBCD and affect the profile substantially. Top-launch ECH will increase the current drive and the power absorption rate. EPED model are being included. Work supported by U.S. DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698 and the USTC CFETR contract.

SERENITY in e-Business and Smart Item Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benameur, Azzedine; Khoury, Paul El; Seguran, Magali; Sinha, Smriti Kumar

SERENITY Artefacts, like Class, Patterns, Implementations and Executable Components for Security & Dependability (S&D) in addition to Serenity Runtime Framework (SRF) are discussed in previous chapters. How to integrate these artefacts with applications in Serenity approach is discussed here with two scenarios. The e-Business scenario is a standard loan origination process in a bank. The Smart Item scenario is an Ambient intelligence case study where we take advantage of Smart Items to provide an electronic healthcare infrastructure for remote healthcare assistance. In both cases, we detail how the prototype implementations of the scenarios select proper executable components through Serenity Runtime Framework and then demonstrate how these executable components of the S&D Patterns are deployed.

Interactive Sonification Exploring Emergent Behavior Applying Models for Biological Information and Listening

PubMed Central

Choi, Insook

2018-01-01

Sonification is an open-ended design task to construct sound informing a listener of data. Understanding application context is critical for shaping design requirements for data translation into sound. Sonification requires methodology to maintain reproducibility when data sources exhibit non-linear properties of self-organization and emergent behavior. This research formalizes interactive sonification in an extensible model to support reproducibility when data exhibits emergent behavior. In the absence of sonification theory, extensibility demonstrates relevant methods across case studies. The interactive sonification framework foregrounds three factors: reproducible system implementation for generating sonification; interactive mechanisms enhancing a listener's multisensory observations; and reproducible data from models that characterize emergent behavior. Supramodal attention research suggests interactive exploration with auditory feedback can generate context for recognizing irregular patterns and transient dynamics. The sonification framework provides circular causality as a signal pathway for modeling a listener interacting with emergent behavior. The extensible sonification model adopts a data acquisition pathway to formalize functional symmetry across three subsystems: Experimental Data Source, Sound Generation, and Guided Exploration. To differentiate time criticality and dimensionality of emerging dynamics, tuning functions are applied between subsystems to maintain scale and symmetry of concurrent processes and temporal dynamics. Tuning functions accommodate sonification design strategies that yield order parameter values to render emerging patterns discoverable as well as rehearsable, to reproduce desired instances for clinical listeners. Case studies are implemented with two computational models, Chua's circuit and Swarm Chemistry social agent simulation, generating data in real-time that exhibits emergent behavior. Heuristic Listening is introduced as an informal model of a listener's clinical attention to data sonification through multisensory interaction in a context of structured inquiry. Three methods are introduced to assess the proposed sonification framework: Listening Scenario classification, data flow Attunement, and Sonification Design Patterns to classify sound control. Case study implementations are assessed against these methods comparing levels of abstraction between experimental data and sound generation. Outcomes demonstrate the framework performance as a reference model for representing experimental implementations, also for identifying common sonification structures having different experimental implementations, identifying common functions implemented in different subsystems, and comparing impact of affordances across multiple implementations of listening scenarios. PMID:29755311

Market scenarios and alternative administrative frameworks for US educational satellite systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walkmeyer, J. E., Jr.; Morgan, R. P.; Singh, J. P.

1975-01-01

Costs and benefits of developing an operational educational satellite system in the U.S. are analyzed. Scenarios are developed for each educational submarket and satellite channel and ground terminal requirements for a large-scale educational telecommunications system are estimated. Alternative organizational frameworks for such a system are described.

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nativi, Stefano; Santoro, Mattia

2010-05-01

In the last years, scientific community is producing great efforts in order to study the effects of climate change on life on Earth. In this general framework, a key role is played by the impact of climate change on biodiversity. To assess this, several use scenarios require the modeling of climatological change impact on the regional distribution of biodiversity species. Designing and developing interoperability infrastructures which enable scientists to search, discover, access and use multi-disciplinary resources (i.e. datasets, services, models, etc.) is currently one of the main research fields for the Earth and Space Science Informatics. This presentation introduces and discusses an interoperability infrastructure which implements the discovery, access, and chaining of loosely-coupled resources in the climatology and biodiversity domains. This allows to set up and run forecast and processing models. The presented framework was successfully developed and experimented in the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2) Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group. This interoperability infrastructure is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access Transaction server: this component publishes the model outputs. This framework was assessed in two use scenarios of GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity WG. Both scenarios concern the prediction of species distributions driven by climatological change forecasts. The first scenario dealt with the Pikas specie regional distribution in the Great Basin area (North America). While, the second one concerned the modeling of the Arctic Food Chain species in the North Pole area -the relationships between different environmental parameters and Polar Bears distribution was analyzed. The scientific patronage was provided by the University of Colorado and the University of Alaska, respectively. Results are published in the GEOSS AIP-2 web site: http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP2develop.

A Modular Framework for EEG Web Based Binary Brain Computer Interfaces to Recover Communication Abilities in Impaired People.

PubMed

Placidi, Giuseppe; Petracca, Andrea; Spezialetti, Matteo; Iacoviello, Daniela

2016-01-01

A Brain Computer Interface (BCI) allows communication for impaired people unable to express their intention with common channels. Electroencephalography (EEG) represents an effective tool to allow the implementation of a BCI. The present paper describes a modular framework for the implementation of the graphic interface for binary BCIs based on the selection of symbols in a table. The proposed system is also designed to reduce the time required for writing text. This is made by including a motivational tool, necessary to improve the quality of the collected signals, and by containing a predictive module based on the frequency of occurrence of letters in a language, and of words in a dictionary. The proposed framework is described in a top-down approach through its modules: signal acquisition, analysis, classification, communication, visualization, and predictive engine. The framework, being modular, can be easily modified to personalize the graphic interface to the needs of the subject who has to use the BCI and it can be integrated with different classification strategies, communication paradigms, and dictionaries/languages. The implementation of a scenario and some experimental results on healthy subjects are also reported and discussed: the modules of the proposed scenario can be used as a starting point for further developments, and application on severely disabled people under the guide of specialized personnel.

Prediction based active ramp metering control strategy with mobility and safety assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Jie; Tu, Lili

2018-04-01

Ramp metering is one of the most direct and efficient motorway traffic flow management measures so as to improve traffic conditions. However, owing to short of traffic conditions prediction, in earlier studies, the impact on traffic flow dynamics of the applied RM control was not quantitatively evaluated. In this study, a RM control algorithm adopting Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework to predict and assess future traffic conditions, which taking both the current traffic conditions and the RM-controlled future traffic states into consideration, was presented. The designed RM control algorithm targets at optimizing the network mobility and safety performance. The designed algorithm is evaluated in a field-data-based simulation. Through comparing the presented algorithm controlled scenario with the uncontrolled scenario, it was proved that the proposed RM control algorithm can effectively relieve the congestion of traffic network with no significant compromises in safety aspect.

Design Support of an Above Cap-rock Early Detection Monitoring System using Simulated Leakage Scenarios at the FutureGen2.0 Site

DOE PAGES

Williams, Mark D.; USA, Richland Washington; Vermuel, Vince R.; ...

2014-12-31

The FutureGen 2.0 Project will design and build a first-of-its-kind, near-zero emissions coal-fueled power plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS). To assess storage site performance and meet the regulatory requirements of the Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program for CO 2 Geologic Sequestration, the FutureGen 2.0 project will implement a suite of monitoring technologies designed to evaluate CO 2 mass balance and detect any unforeseen loss in CO 2 containment. The monitoring program will include direct monitoring of the reservoir, and early-leak-detection monitoring directly above the primary confining zone. This preliminary modeling study described here focuses on hypotheticalmore » leakage scenarios into the first permeable unit above the primary confining zone (Ironton Sandstone) and is used to support assessment of early-leak detection capabilities. Future updates of the model will be used to assess potential impacts on the lowermost underground source of drinking water (Saint Peter Sandstone) for a range of theoretical leakage scenarios. This preliminary modeling evaluation considers both pressure response and geochemical signals in the overlying Ironton Sandstone. This model is independent of the FutureGen 2.0 reservoir model in that it does not simulate caprock discontinuities, faults, or failure scenarios. Instead this modeling effort is based on theoretical, volumetric-rate based leakage scenarios. The scenarios include leakage of 1% of the total injected CO 2 mass, but spread out over different time periods (20, 100, and 500 years) with each case yielding a different mass flux (i.e., smaller mass fluxes for longer duration leakage cases]. A brine leakage scenario using a volumetric leakage similar to the 20 year 1% CO 2 case was also considered. A framework for the comparison of the various cases was developed based on the exceedance of selected pressure and geochemical thresholds at different distances from the point of leakage and at different vertical positions within the Ironton Sandstone. These preliminary results, and results from an updated models that incorporate additional site-specific characterization data, support development/refinement of the monitoring system design.« less

BP-Broker use-cases in the UncertWeb framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roncella, Roberto; Bigagli, Lorenzo; Schulz, Michael; Stasch, Christoph; Proß, Benjamin; Jones, Richard; Santoro, Mattia

2013-04-01

The UncertWeb framework is a distributed, Web-based Information and Communication Technology (ICT) system to support scientific data modeling in presence of uncertainty. We designed and prototyped a core component of the UncertWeb framework: the Business Process Broker. The BP-Broker implements several functionalities, such as: discovery of available processes/BPs, preprocessing of a BP into its executable form (EBP), publication of EBPs and their execution through a workflow-engine. According to the Composition-as-a-Service (CaaS) approach, the BP-Broker supports discovery and chaining of modeling resources (and processing resources in general), providing the necessary interoperability services for creating, validating, editing, storing, publishing, and executing scientific workflows. The UncertWeb project targeted several scenarios, which were used to evaluate and test the BP-Broker. The scenarios cover the following environmental application domains: biodiversity and habitat change, land use and policy modeling, local air quality forecasting, and individual activity in the environment. This work reports on the study of a number of use-cases, by means of the BP-Broker, namely: - eHabitat use-case: implements a Monte Carlo simulation performed on a deterministic ecological model; an extended use-case supports inter-comparison of model outputs; - FERA use-case: is composed of a set of models for predicting land-use and crop yield response to climatic and economic change; - NILU use-case: is composed of a Probabilistic Air Quality Forecasting model for predicting concentrations of air pollutants; - Albatross use-case: includes two model services for simulating activity-travel patterns of individuals in time and space; - Overlay use-case: integrates the NILU scenario with the Albatross scenario to calculate the exposure to air pollutants of individuals. Our aim was to prove the feasibility of describing composite modeling processes with a high-level, abstract notation (i.e. BPMN 2.0), and delegating the resolution of technical issues (e.g. I/O matching) as much as possible to an external service. The results of the experimented solution indicate that this approach facilitates the integration of environmental model workflows into the standard geospatial Web Services framework (e.g. the GEOSS Common Infrastructure), mitigating its inherent complexity. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant Agreement n° 248488.

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

A Simulation and Modeling Framework for Space Situational Awareness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olivier, S S

This paper describes the development and initial demonstration of a new, integrated modeling and simulation framework, encompassing the space situational awareness enterprise, for quantitatively assessing the benefit of specific sensor systems, technologies and data analysis techniques. The framework is based on a flexible, scalable architecture to enable efficient, physics-based simulation of the current SSA enterprise, and to accommodate future advancements in SSA systems. In particular, the code is designed to take advantage of massively parallel computer systems available, for example, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The details of the modeling and simulation framework are described, including hydrodynamic models of satellitemore » intercept and debris generation, orbital propagation algorithms, radar cross section calculations, optical brightness calculations, generic radar system models, generic optical system models, specific Space Surveillance Network models, object detection algorithms, orbit determination algorithms, and visualization tools. The use of this integrated simulation and modeling framework on a specific scenario involving space debris is demonstrated.« less

Optimisation of simulated team training through the application of learning theories: a debate for a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Stocker, Martin; Burmester, Margarita; Allen, Meredith

2014-04-03

As a conceptual review, this paper will debate relevant learning theories to inform the development, design and delivery of an effective educational programme for simulated team training relevant to health professionals. Kolb's experiential learning theory is used as the main conceptual framework to define the sequence of activities. Dewey's theory of reflective thought and action, Jarvis modification of Kolb's learning cycle and Schön's reflection-on-action serve as a model to design scenarios for optimal concrete experience and debriefing for challenging participants' beliefs and habits. Bandura's theory of self-efficacy and newer socio-cultural learning models outline that for efficient team training, it is mandatory to introduce the social-cultural context of a team. The ideal simulated team training programme needs a scenario for concrete experience, followed by a debriefing with a critical reflexive observation and abstract conceptualisation phase, and ending with a second scenario for active experimentation. Let them re-experiment to optimise the effect of a simulated training session. Challenge them to the edge: The scenario needs to challenge participants to generate failures and feelings of inadequacy to drive and motivate team members to critical reflect and learn. Not experience itself but the inadequacy and contradictions of habitual experience serve as basis for reflection. Facilitate critical reflection: Facilitators and group members must guide and motivate individual participants through the debriefing session, inciting and empowering learners to challenge their own beliefs and habits. To do this, learners need to feel psychological safe. Let the group talk and critical explore. Motivate with reality and context: Training with multidisciplinary team members, with different levels of expertise, acting in their usual environment (in-situ simulation) on physiological variables is mandatory to introduce cultural context and social conditions to the learning experience. Embedding in situ team training sessions into a teaching programme to enable repeated training and to assess regularly team performance is mandatory for a cultural change of sustained improvement of team performance and patient safety.

Sustainable Water Resources for Communities under Climate Change: Can State-of-the-Art Forecasting Inform Decision-Making in Data Sparse Regions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, A.; Vivoni, E.; Halvorsen, K.; Robles-Morua, A.; Dana, K.; Che, D.; Mirchi, A.; Kossak, D.; Casteneda, M.

2013-05-01

In this project, we are studying decision-making for water resources management in anticipation of climate change in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico as a case study for the broader arid and semiarid southwestern North America. The goal of the proposed project is to determine whether water resources systems modeling, developed within a participatory framework, can contribute to the building of management strategies in a context of water scarcity, conflicting water uses and highly variable and changing climate conditions. The participatory modeling approach will be conducted through a series of three workshops, designed to encourage substantive participation from a broad range of actors, including representatives from federal and local government agencies, water use sectors, non-governmental organizations, and academics. Participants will guide the design of supply- and demand-side management strategies and selection of climate change and infrastructure management scenarios using state-of-the-art engineering tools. These tools include a water resources systems framework, a spatially-explicit hydrologic model, the use of forecasted climate scenarios under 21st century climate change, and observations obtained from field and satellite sensors. Through the theory of planned behavior, the participatory modeling process will be evaluated to understand if, and to what extent, the engineering tools are useful in the uncertain and politically-complex setting. Pre- and post-workshop surveys will be used in this evaluation. For this contribution, we present the results of the first collaborative modeling workshop that will be held in March 2013, where we will develop the initial modeling framework in collaboration with workshop participants.

FHWA scenario planning guidebook

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-02-01

The purpose of this guidebook is to assist transportation agencies with carrying out a scenario planning process from start to finish. Transportation agencies can use the guidebook as a framework to develop a scenario planning approach tailored to th...

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, M.

This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

A Step-by-Step Framework on Discrete Events Simulation in Emergency Department; A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Dehghani, Mahsa; Moftian, Nazila; Rezaei-Hachesu, Peyman; Samad-Soltani, Taha

2017-01-01

Objective: To systematically review the current literature of simulation in healthcare including the structured steps in the emergency healthcare sector by proposing a framework for simulation in the emergency department. Methods: For the purpose of collecting the data, PubMed and ACM databases were used between the years 2003 and 2013. The inclusion criteria were to select English-written articles available in full text with the closest objectives from among a total of 54 articles retrieved from the databases. Subsequently, 11 articles were selected for further analysis. Results: The studies focused on the reduction of waiting time and patient stay, optimization of resources allocation, creation of crisis and maximum demand scenarios, identification of overcrowding bottlenecks, investigation of the impact of other systems on the existing system, and improvement of the system operations and functions. Subsequently, 10 simulation steps were derived from the relevant studies after an expert’s evaluation. Conclusion: The 10-steps approach proposed on the basis of the selected studies provides simulation and planning specialists with a structured method for both analyzing problems and choosing best-case scenarios. Moreover, following this framework systematically enables the development of design processes as well as software implementation of simulation problems. PMID:28507994

REDD+ and climate smart agriculture in landscapes: A case study in Vietnam using companion modelling.

PubMed

Salvini, G; Ligtenberg, A; van Paassen, A; Bregt, A K; Avitabile, V; Herold, M

2016-05-01

Finding land use strategies that merge land-based climate change mitigation measures and adaptation strategies is still an open issue in climate discourse. This article explores synergies and trade-offs between REDD+, a scheme that focuses mainly on mitigation through forest conservation, with "Climate Smart Agriculture", an approach that emphasizes adaptive agriculture. We introduce a framework for ex-ante assessment of the impact of land management policies and interventions and for quantifying their impacts on land-based mitigation and adaptation goals. The framework includes a companion modelling (ComMod) process informed by interviews with policymakers, local experts and local farmers. The ComMod process consists of a Role-Playing Game with local farmers and an Agent Based Model. The game provided a participatory means to develop policy and climate change scenarios. These scenarios were then used as inputs to the Agent Based Model, a spatially explicit model to simulate landscape dynamics and the associated carbon emissions over decades. We applied the framework using as case study a community in central Vietnam, characterized by deforestation for subsistence agriculture and cultivation of acacias as a cash crop. The main findings show that the framework is useful in guiding consideration of local stakeholders' goals, needs and constraints. Additionally the framework provided beneficial information to policymakers, pointing to ways that policies might be re-designed to make them better tailored to local circumstances and therefore more effective in addressing synergistically climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new framework for quantifying uncertainties in modelling studies for future climates - how more certain are CMIP5 precipitation and temperature simulations compared to CMIP3?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sivakumar, B.; Mehrotra, R.

2014-12-01

We outline a new framework for assessing uncertainties in model simulations, be they hydro-ecological simulations for known scenarios, or climate simulations for assumed scenarios representing the future. This framework is illustrated here using GCM projections for future climates for hydrologically relevant variables (precipitation and temperature), with the uncertainty segregated into three dominant components - model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty (representing greenhouse gas emission scenarios), and ensemble uncertainty (representing uncertain initial conditions and states). A novel uncertainty metric, the Square Root Error Variance (SREV), is used to quantify the uncertainties involved. The SREV requires: (1) Interpolating raw and corrected GCM outputs to a common grid; (2) Converting these to percentiles; (3) Estimating SREV for model, scenario, initial condition and total uncertainty at each percentile; and (4) Transforming SREV to a time series. The outcome is a spatially varying series of SREVs associated with each model that can be used to assess how uncertain the system is at each simulated point or time. This framework, while illustrated in a climate change context, is completely applicable for assessment of uncertainties any modelling framework may be subject to. The proposed method is applied to monthly precipitation and temperature from 6 CMIP3 and 13 CMIP5 GCMs across the world. For CMIP3, B1, A1B and A2 scenarios whereas for CMIP5, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 representing low, medium and high emissions are considered. For both CMIP3 and CMIP5, model structure is the largest source of uncertainty, which reduces significantly after correcting for biases. Scenario uncertainly increases, especially for temperature, in future due to divergence of the three emission scenarios analysed. While CMIP5 precipitation simulations exhibit a small reduction in total uncertainty over CMIP3, there is almost no reduction observed for temperature projections. Estimation of uncertainty in both space and time sheds lights on the spatial and temporal patterns of uncertainties in GCM outputs, providing an effective platform for risk-based assessments of any alternate plans or decisions that may be formulated using GCM simulations.

ISECG Mission Scenarios and Their Role in Informing Next Steps for Human Exploration Beyond Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Culbert, Christopher J.; Mongrard, Olivier; Satoh, Naoki; Goodliff, Kandyce; Seaman, Calvin H.; Troutman, Patrick; Martin, Eric

2011-01-01

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) was established in response to The Global Exploration Strategy (GES): The Framework for Coordination developed by fourteen space agencies* and released in May 2007. This GES Framework Document recognizes that preparing for human space exploration is a stepwise process, starting with basic knowledge and culminating in a sustained human presence in deep space. ISECG has developed several optional global exploration mission scenarios enabling the phased transition from human operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and utilization of the International Space Station (ISS) to human missions beyond LEO leading ultimately to human missions to cis-lunar space, the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids, Mars and its environs. Mission scenarios provide the opportunity for judging various exploration approaches in a manner consistent with agreed international goals and strategies. Each ISECG notional mission scenario reflects a series of coordinated human and robotic exploration missions over a 25-year horizon. Mission scenarios are intended to provide insights into next steps for agency investments, following on the success of the ISS. They also provide a framework for advancing the definition of Design Reference Missions (DRMs) and the concepts for capabilities contained within. Each of the human missions contained in the scenarios has been characterized by a DRM which is a top level definition of mission sequence and the capabilities needed to execute that mission. While DRMs are generally destination focused, they will comprise capabilities which are reused or evolved from capabilities used at other destinations. In this way, an evolutionary approach to developing a robust set of capabilities to sustainably explore our solar system is defined. Agencies also recognize that jointly planning for our next steps, building on the accomplishments of ISS, is important to ensuring the robustness and sustainability of any human exploration plan. Developing a shared long-term vision is important, but agencies recognize this is an evolutionary process and requires consideration of many strategic factors. Strategic factors such as the implications of an emerging commercial space industry in LEO, the opportunity provided by extending ISS lifetime to at least 2020, and the importance of defining a plan which is sustainable in light of inevitable domestic policy shifts are timely for agency consideration.

DCF(Registered)-A JAUS and TENA Compliant Agent-Based Framework for Test and Evaluation of Unmanned Vehicles

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

functions of the vignette editor include visualizing the state of the UAS team, creating T&E scenarios, monitoring the UAS team performance, and...These behaviors are then executed by the robot sequentially (Figure 2). A state machine mission editor allows mission builders to use behaviors from the...include control, robotics, distributed applications, multimedia applications, databases, design patterns, and software engineering. Mr. Lenzi is the

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se; KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications; Ekener, Elisabeth

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach,more » and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.« less

Fuel Cycle Analysis Framework Base Cases for the IAEA/INPRO GAINS Collaborative Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brent Dixon

Thirteen countries participated in the Collaborative Project GAINS “Global Architecture of Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems Based on Thermal and Fast Reactors Including a Closed Fuel Cycle”, which was the primary activity within the IAEA/INPRO Program Area B: “Global Vision on Sustainable Nuclear Energy” for the last three years. The overall objective of GAINS was to develop a standard framework for assessing future nuclear energy systems taking into account sustainable development, and to validate results through sample analyses. This paper details the eight scenarios that constitute the GAINS framework base cases for analysis of the transition to future innovative nuclear energymore » systems. The framework base cases provide a reference for users of the framework to start from in developing and assessing their own alternate systems. Each base case is described along with performance results against the GAINS sustainability evaluation metrics. The eight cases include four using a moderate growth projection and four using a high growth projection for global nuclear electricity generation through 2100. The cases are divided into two sets, addressing homogeneous and heterogeneous scenarios developed by GAINS to model global fuel cycle strategies. The heterogeneous world scenario considers three separate nuclear groups based on their fuel cycle strategies, with non-synergistic and synergistic cases. The framework base case analyses results show the impact of these different fuel cycle strategies while providing references for future users of the GAINS framework. A large number of scenario alterations are possible and can be used to assess different strategies, different technologies, and different assumptions about possible futures of nuclear power. Results can be compared to the framework base cases to assess where these alternate cases perform differently versus the sustainability indicators.« less

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

Technology Prioritization: Transforming the U.S. Building Stock to Embrace Energy Efficiency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abdelaziz, Omar; Farese, Philip; Abramson, Alexis

2013-01-01

The U.S. Buildings sector is responsible for about 40% of the national energy expenditures. This is due in part to wasteful use of resources and limited considerations made for energy efficiency during the design and retrofit phases. Recent studies have indicated the potential for up to 30-50% energy savings in the U.S. buildings sector using currently available technologies. This paper discusses efforts to accelerate the transformation in the U.S. building energy efficiency sector using a new technology prioritization framework. The underlying analysis examines building energy use micro segments using the Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook and other publically availablemore » information. The tool includes a stock-and-flow model to track stock vintage and efficiency levels with time. The tool can be used to investigate energy efficiency measures under a variety of scenarios and has a built-in energy accounting framework to prevent double counting of energy savings within any given portfolio. This tool is developed to inform decision making and estimate long term potential energy savings for different market adoption scenarios.« less

A Framework for the Development of Context-Adaptable User Interfaces for Ubiquitous Computing Systems.

PubMed

Varela, Gervasio; Paz-Lopez, Alejandro; Becerra, Jose A; Duro, Richard

2016-07-07

This paper addresses the problem of developing user interfaces for Ubiquitous Computing (UC) and Ambient Intelligence (AmI) systems. These kind of systems are expected to provide a natural user experience, considering interaction modalities adapted to the user abilities and preferences and using whatever interaction devices are present in the environment. These interaction devices are not necessarily known at design time. The task is quite complicated due to the variety of devices and technologies, and the diversity of scenarios, and it usually burdens the developer with the need to create many different UIs in order to consider the foreseeable user-environment combinations. Here, we propose an UI abstraction framework for UC and AmI systems that effectively improves the portability of those systems between different environments and for different users. It allows developers to design and implement a single UI capable of being deployed with different devices and modalities regardless the physical location.

Preservice Elementary Teachers' Instructional Practices and the Teaching Science as Argument Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, Elisebeth

2016-12-01

The research reported in this study examines the very first time the participants planned for and enacted science instruction within a "best-case scenario" teacher preparation program. Evidence from this study indicates that, within this context, preservice teachers are capable of implementing several of the discursive practices of science called for in standards documents including engaging students in science investigations and constructing evidence-based explanations. The participants designed experiences that allowed their students to interact with natural phenomena, gather evidence, and craft explanations of natural phenomenon. The study contends that the participants were able to achieve such successes due to their participation in a teacher education program and field placement, which were designed using a comprehensive, conceptual framework. Video of the participant's teaching and annotated self-analysis videos served as the primary data for this study. Implications for future research and elementary science teacher education are discussed.

Pre-crash scenario framework for crash avoidance systems based on vehicle-to-vehicle communications

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-06-13

This paper prioritizes and statistically describes precrash : scenarios as a basis for the identification of : crash avoidance functions enhanced or enabled by : vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication technology. : Pre-crash scenarios depict vehicle ...

Automatic Association of Chats and Video Tracks for Activity Learning and Recognition in Aerial Video Surveillance

PubMed Central

Hammoud, Riad I.; Sahin, Cem S.; Blasch, Erik P.; Rhodes, Bradley J.; Wang, Tao

2014-01-01

We describe two advanced video analysis techniques, including video-indexed by voice annotations (VIVA) and multi-media indexing and explorer (MINER). VIVA utilizes analyst call-outs (ACOs) in the form of chat messages (voice-to-text) to associate labels with video target tracks, to designate spatial-temporal activity boundaries and to augment video tracking in challenging scenarios. Challenging scenarios include low-resolution sensors, moving targets and target trajectories obscured by natural and man-made clutter. MINER includes: (1) a fusion of graphical track and text data using probabilistic methods; (2) an activity pattern learning framework to support querying an index of activities of interest (AOIs) and targets of interest (TOIs) by movement type and geolocation; and (3) a user interface to support streaming multi-intelligence data processing. We also present an activity pattern learning framework that uses the multi-source associated data as training to index a large archive of full-motion videos (FMV). VIVA and MINER examples are demonstrated for wide aerial/overhead imagery over common data sets affording an improvement in tracking from video data alone, leading to 84% detection with modest misdetection/false alarm results due to the complexity of the scenario. The novel use of ACOs and chat messages in video tracking paves the way for user interaction, correction and preparation of situation awareness reports. PMID:25340453

Automatic association of chats and video tracks for activity learning and recognition in aerial video surveillance.

PubMed

Hammoud, Riad I; Sahin, Cem S; Blasch, Erik P; Rhodes, Bradley J; Wang, Tao

2014-10-22

We describe two advanced video analysis techniques, including video-indexed by voice annotations (VIVA) and multi-media indexing and explorer (MINER). VIVA utilizes analyst call-outs (ACOs) in the form of chat messages (voice-to-text) to associate labels with video target tracks, to designate spatial-temporal activity boundaries and to augment video tracking in challenging scenarios. Challenging scenarios include low-resolution sensors, moving targets and target trajectories obscured by natural and man-made clutter. MINER includes: (1) a fusion of graphical track and text data using probabilistic methods; (2) an activity pattern learning framework to support querying an index of activities of interest (AOIs) and targets of interest (TOIs) by movement type and geolocation; and (3) a user interface to support streaming multi-intelligence data processing. We also present an activity pattern learning framework that uses the multi-source associated data as training to index a large archive of full-motion videos (FMV). VIVA and MINER examples are demonstrated for wide aerial/overhead imagery over common data sets affording an improvement in tracking from video data alone, leading to 84% detection with modest misdetection/false alarm results due to the complexity of the scenario. The novel use of ACOs and chat Sensors 2014, 14 19844 messages in video tracking paves the way for user interaction, correction and preparation of situation awareness reports.

Futures of elderly care in Iran: A protocol with scenario approach.

PubMed

Goharinezhad, Salime; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Baradaran, Hamid Reza; Ravaghi, Hamid

2016-01-01

Background: The number of people aged 60 and older is increasing faster than other age groups worldwide. Iran will experience a sharp aging population increase in the next decades, and this will pose new challenges to the healthcare system. Since providing high quality aged-care services would be the major concern of the policymakers, this question arises that what types of aged care services should be organized in the coming 10 years? This protocol has been designed to develop a set of scenarios for the future of elderly care in Iran. Methods: In this study, intuitive logics approach and Global Business Network (GBN) model were used to develop scenarios for elderly care in Iran. In terms of perspective, the scenarios in this approach are normative, qualitative with respect to methodology and deductive in constructing the process of scenarios. The three phases of GBN model are as follows: 1) Orientation: Identifying strategic levels, stakeholders, participants and time horizon; 2) Exploration: Identifying the driving forces and key uncertainties; 3) Synthesis: Defining the scenario logics and constructing scenario storyline. Results: Presently, two phases are completed and the results will be published in mid-2016. Conclusion: This study delivers a comprehensive framework for taking appropriate actions in providing care for the elderly in the future. Moreover, policy makers should specify and provide the full range of services for the elderly, and in doing so, the scenarios and key findings of this study could be of valuable help.

Self-Tuning Method for Increased Obstacle Detection Reliability Based on Internet of Things LiDAR Sensor Models

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

On-chip LiDAR sensors for vehicle collision avoidance are a rapidly expanding area of research and development. The assessment of reliable obstacle detection using data collected by LiDAR sensors has become a key issue that the scientific community is actively exploring. The design of a self-tuning methodology and its implementation are presented in this paper, to maximize the reliability of LiDAR sensors network for obstacle detection in the ‘Internet of Things’ (IoT) mobility scenarios. The Webots Automobile 3D simulation tool for emulating sensor interaction in complex driving environments is selected in order to achieve that objective. Furthermore, a model-based framework is defined that employs a point-cloud clustering technique, and an error-based prediction model library that is composed of a multilayer perceptron neural network, and k-nearest neighbors and linear regression models. Finally, a reinforcement learning technique, specifically a Q-learning method, is implemented to determine the number of LiDAR sensors that are required to increase sensor reliability for obstacle localization tasks. In addition, a IoT driving assistance user scenario, connecting a five LiDAR sensor network is designed and implemented to validate the accuracy of the computational intelligence-based framework. The results demonstrated that the self-tuning method is an appropriate strategy to increase the reliability of the sensor network while minimizing detection thresholds. PMID:29748521

Self-Tuning Method for Increased Obstacle Detection Reliability Based on Internet of Things LiDAR Sensor Models.

PubMed

Castaño, Fernando; Beruvides, Gerardo; Villalonga, Alberto; Haber, Rodolfo E

2018-05-10

On-chip LiDAR sensors for vehicle collision avoidance are a rapidly expanding area of research and development. The assessment of reliable obstacle detection using data collected by LiDAR sensors has become a key issue that the scientific community is actively exploring. The design of a self-tuning methodology and its implementation are presented in this paper, to maximize the reliability of LiDAR sensors network for obstacle detection in the 'Internet of Things' (IoT) mobility scenarios. The Webots Automobile 3D simulation tool for emulating sensor interaction in complex driving environments is selected in order to achieve that objective. Furthermore, a model-based framework is defined that employs a point-cloud clustering technique, and an error-based prediction model library that is composed of a multilayer perceptron neural network, and k-nearest neighbors and linear regression models. Finally, a reinforcement learning technique, specifically a Q-learning method, is implemented to determine the number of LiDAR sensors that are required to increase sensor reliability for obstacle localization tasks. In addition, a IoT driving assistance user scenario, connecting a five LiDAR sensor network is designed and implemented to validate the accuracy of the computational intelligence-based framework. The results demonstrated that the self-tuning method is an appropriate strategy to increase the reliability of the sensor network while minimizing detection thresholds.

Quantitative design of emergency monitoring network for river chemical spills based on discrete entropy theory.

PubMed

Shi, Bin; Jiang, Jiping; Sivakumar, Bellie; Zheng, Yi; Wang, Peng

2018-05-01

Field monitoring strategy is critical for disaster preparedness and watershed emergency environmental management. However, development of such is also highly challenging. Despite the efforts and progress thus far, no definitive guidelines or solutions are available worldwide for quantitatively designing a monitoring network in response to river chemical spill incidents, except general rules based on administrative divisions or arbitrary interpolation on routine monitoring sections. To address this gap, a novel framework for spatial-temporal network design was proposed in this study. The framework combines contaminant transport modelling with discrete entropy theory and spectral analysis. The water quality model was applied to forecast the spatio-temporal distribution of contaminant after spills and then corresponding information transfer indexes (ITIs) and Fourier approximation periodic functions were estimated as critical measures for setting sampling locations and times. The results indicate that the framework can produce scientific preparedness plans of emergency monitoring based on scenario analysis of spill risks as well as rapid design as soon as the incident happened but not prepared. The framework was applied to a hypothetical spill case based on tracer experiment and a real nitrobenzene spill incident case to demonstrate its suitability and effectiveness. The newly-designed temporal-spatial monitoring network captured major pollution information at relatively low costs. It showed obvious benefits for follow-up early-warning and treatment as well as for aftermath recovery and assessment. The underlying drivers of ITIs as well as the limitations and uncertainty of the approach were analyzed based on the case studies. Comparison with existing monitoring network design approaches, management implications, and generalized applicability were also discussed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A development framework for semantically interoperable health information systems.

PubMed

Lopez, Diego M; Blobel, Bernd G M E

2009-02-01

Semantic interoperability is a basic challenge to be met for new generations of distributed, communicating and co-operating health information systems (HIS) enabling shared care and e-Health. Analysis, design, implementation and maintenance of such systems and intrinsic architectures have to follow a unified development methodology. The Generic Component Model (GCM) is used as a framework for modeling any system to evaluate and harmonize state of the art architecture development approaches and standards for health information systems as well as to derive a coherent architecture development framework for sustainable, semantically interoperable HIS and their components. The proposed methodology is based on the Rational Unified Process (RUP), taking advantage of its flexibility to be configured for integrating other architectural approaches such as Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA), Model-Driven Architecture (MDA), ISO 10746, and HL7 Development Framework (HDF). Existing architectural approaches have been analyzed, compared and finally harmonized towards an architecture development framework for advanced health information systems. Starting with the requirements for semantic interoperability derived from paradigm changes for health information systems, and supported in formal software process engineering methods, an appropriate development framework for semantically interoperable HIS has been provided. The usability of the framework has been exemplified in a public health scenario.

Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

2013-12-01

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences from AgMIP Regional Teams, and from the project on Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest, are used to discuss how the RAPs procedures can be further developed and improved, and how RAPs can help engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results.

Using Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Guide Quantitative Safety Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortle, J. F.; Allocco, M.

2005-01-01

Quantitative methods can be beneficial in many types of safety investigations. However, there are many difficulties in using quantitative m ethods. Far example, there may be little relevant data available. This paper proposes a framework for using quantitative hazard analysis to prioritize hazard scenarios most suitable for quantitative mziysis. The framework first categorizes hazard scenarios by severity and likelihood. We then propose another metric "modeling difficulty" that desc ribes the complexity in modeling a given hazard scenario quantitatively. The combined metrics of severity, likelihood, and modeling difficu lty help to prioritize hazard scenarios for which quantitative analys is should be applied. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for airplane operatio ns at closely spaced parallel runways.

Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

PubMed

Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

2018-02-13

Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

Compromise-based Robust Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Watershed Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Chung, E. S.

2014-12-01

This study suggests a robust prioritization framework for climate change adaptation strategies under multiple climate change scenarios with a case study of selecting sites for reusing treated wastewater (TWW) in a Korean urban watershed. The framework utilizes various multi-criteria decision making techniques, including the VIKOR method and the Shannon entropy-based weights. In this case study, the sustainability of TWW use is quantified with indicator-based approaches with the DPSIR framework, which considers both hydro-environmental and socio-economic aspects of the watershed management. Under the various climate change scenarios, the hydro-environmental responses to reusing TWW in potential alternative sub-watersheds are determined using the Hydrologic Simulation Program in Fortran (HSPF). The socio-economic indicators are obtained from the statistical databases. Sustainability scores for multiple scenarios are estimated individually and then integrated with the proposed approach. At last, the suggested framework allows us to prioritize adaptation strategies in a robust manner with varying levels of compromise between utility-based and regret-based strategies.

A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

2016-05-01

This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

A planning-oriented sustainability assessment framework for peri-urban water management in developing countries.

PubMed

Starkl, Markus; Brunner, Norbert; López, Eduardo; Martínez-Ruiz, José Luis

2013-12-15

DPSIR and the three-pillar model are well-established frameworks for sustainability assessment. This paper proposes a planning-oriented sustainability assessment framework (POSAF). It is informed by those frameworks but differs insofar as it puts more emphasis on a constructivist conception which recognises that sustainability needs to be defined anew for each planning problem. In finding such a consensus definition, POSAF uses participatory scenario analysis and participatory planning, technical feasibility study, participatory assessment, analysis of trade-offs and social networks in an unusual combination and for goals that differ from the original conceptions of these methods. POSAF was applied in a peri-urban area of Mexico City for the design of improved water service provision, integrating solid waste management. It supported consensus amongst users about the importance of environmental issues, informed planners about the values of stakeholders and users, detected local differences, and identified possible conflicts at an early stage of decision-making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FunBlocks. A modular framework for AmI system development.

PubMed

Baquero, Rafael; Rodríguez, José; Mendoza, Sonia; Decouchant, Dominique; Papis, Alfredo Piero Mateos

2012-01-01

The last decade has seen explosive growth in the technologies required to implement Ambient Intelligence (AmI) systems. Technologies such as facial and speech recognition, home networks, household cleaning robots, to name a few, have become commonplace. However, due to the multidisciplinary nature of AmI systems and the distinct requirements of different user groups, integrating these developments into full-scale systems is not an easy task. In this paper we propose FunBlocks, a minimalist modular framework for the development of AmI systems based on the function module abstraction used in the IEC 61499 standard for distributed control systems. FunBlocks provides a framework for the development of AmI systems through the integration of modules loosely joined by means of an event-driven middleware and a module and sensor/actuator catalog. The modular design of the FunBlocks framework allows the development of AmI systems which can be customized to a wide variety of usage scenarios.

FunBlocks. A Modular Framework for AmI System Development

PubMed Central

Baquero, Rafael; Rodríguez, José; Mendoza, Sonia; Decouchant, Dominique; Papis, Alfredo Piero Mateos

2012-01-01

The last decade has seen explosive growth in the technologies required to implement Ambient Intelligence (AmI) systems. Technologies such as facial and speech recognition, home networks, household cleaning robots, to name a few, have become commonplace. However, due to the multidisciplinary nature of AmI systems and the distinct requirements of different user groups, integrating these developments into full-scale systems is not an easy task. In this paper we propose FunBlocks, a minimalist modular framework for the development of AmI systems based on the function module abstraction used in the IEC 61499 standard for distributed control systems. FunBlocks provides a framework for the development of AmI systems through the integration of modules loosely joined by means of an event-driven middleware and a module and sensor/actuator catalog. The modular design of the FunBlocks framework allows the development of AmI systems which can be customized to a wide variety of usage scenarios. PMID:23112599

A Framework for Dimensioning VDL-2 Air-Ground Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ribeiro, Leila Z.; Monticone, Leone C.; Snow, Richard E.; Box, Frank; Apaza, Rafel; Bretmersky, Steven

2014-01-01

This paper describes a framework developed at MITRE for dimensioning a Very High Frequency (VHF) Digital Link Mode 2 (VDL-2) Air-to-Ground network. This framework was developed to support the FAA's Data Communications (Data Comm) program by providing estimates of expected capacity required for the air-ground network services that will support Controller-Pilot-Data-Link Communications (CPDLC), as well as the spectrum needed to operate the system at required levels of performance. The Data Comm program is part of the FAA's NextGen initiative to implement advanced communication capabilities in the National Airspace System (NAS). The first component of the framework is the radio-frequency (RF) coverage design for the network ground stations. Then we proceed to describe the approach used to assess the aircraft geographical distribution and the data traffic demand expected in the network. The next step is the resource allocation utilizing optimization algorithms developed in MITRE's Spectrum ProspectorTM tool to propose frequency assignment solutions, and a NASA-developed VDL-2 tool to perform simulations and determine whether a proposed plan meets the desired performance requirements. The framework presented is capable of providing quantitative estimates of multiple variables related to the air-ground network, in order to satisfy established coverage, capacity and latency performance requirements. Outputs include: coverage provided at different altitudes; data capacity required in the network, aggregated or on a per ground station basis; spectrum (pool of frequencies) needed for the system to meet a target performance; optimized frequency plan for a given scenario; expected performance given spectrum available; and, estimates of throughput distributions for a given scenario. We conclude with a discussion aimed at providing insight into the tradeoffs and challenges identified with respect to radio resource management for VDL-2 air-ground networks.

Design of 2D time-varying vector fields.

PubMed

Chen, Guoning; Kwatra, Vivek; Wei, Li-Yi; Hansen, Charles D; Zhang, Eugene

2012-10-01

Design of time-varying vector fields, i.e., vector fields that can change over time, has a wide variety of important applications in computer graphics. Existing vector field design techniques do not address time-varying vector fields. In this paper, we present a framework for the design of time-varying vector fields, both for planar domains as well as manifold surfaces. Our system supports the creation and modification of various time-varying vector fields with desired spatial and temporal characteristics through several design metaphors, including streamlines, pathlines, singularity paths, and bifurcations. These design metaphors are integrated into an element-based design to generate the time-varying vector fields via a sequence of basis field summations or spatial constrained optimizations at the sampled times. The key-frame design and field deformation are also introduced to support other user design scenarios. Accordingly, a spatial-temporal constrained optimization and the time-varying transformation are employed to generate the desired fields for these two design scenarios, respectively. We apply the time-varying vector fields generated using our design system to a number of important computer graphics applications that require controllable dynamic effects, such as evolving surface appearance, dynamic scene design, steerable crowd movement, and painterly animation. Many of these are difficult or impossible to achieve via prior simulation-based methods. In these applications, the time-varying vector fields have been applied as either orientation fields or advection fields to control the instantaneous appearance or evolving trajectories of the dynamic effects.

Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Jonas; Binkowski, Eva; Bronsart, Robert

2014-06-01

In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS) is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC) the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel's calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

The MMI Semantic Framework: Rosetta Stones for Earth Sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rueda, C.; Bermudez, L. E.; Graybeal, J.; Alexander, P.

2009-12-01

Semantic interoperability—the exchange of meaning among computer systems—is needed to successfully share data in Ocean Science and across all Earth sciences. The best approach toward semantic interoperability requires a designed framework, and operationally tested tools and infrastructure within that framework. Currently available technologies make a scientific semantic framework feasible, but its development requires sustainable architectural vision and development processes. This presentation outlines the MMI Semantic Framework, including recent progress on it and its client applications. The MMI Semantic Framework consists of tools, infrastructure, and operational and community procedures and best practices, to meet short-term and long-term semantic interoperability goals. The design and prioritization of the semantic framework capabilities are based on real-world scenarios in Earth observation systems. We describe some key uses cases, as well as the associated requirements for building the overall infrastructure, which is realized through the MMI Ontology Registry and Repository. This system includes support for community creation and sharing of semantic content, ontology registration, version management, and seamless integration of user-friendly tools and application programming interfaces. The presentation describes the architectural components for semantic mediation, registry and repository for vocabularies, ontology, and term mappings. We show how the technologies and approaches in the framework can address community needs for managing and exchanging semantic information. We will demonstrate how different types of users and client applications exploit the tools and services for data aggregation, visualization, archiving, and integration. Specific examples from OOSTethys (http://www.oostethys.org) and the Ocean Observatories Initiative Cyberinfrastructure (http://www.oceanobservatories.org) will be cited. Finally, we show how semantic augmentation of web services standards could be performed using framework tools.

Modelling runway incursion severity.

PubMed

Wilke, Sabine; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y

2015-06-01

Analysis of the causes underlying runway incursions is fundamental for the development of effective mitigation measures. However, there are significant weaknesses in the current methods to model these factors. This paper proposes a structured framework for modelling causal factors and their relationship to severity, which includes a description of the airport surface system architecture, establishment of terminological definitions, the determination and collection of appropriate data, the analysis of occurrences for severity and causes, and the execution of a statistical analysis framework. It is implemented in the context of U.S. airports, enabling the identification of a number of priority interventions, including the need for better investigation and causal factor capture, recommendations for airfield design, operating scenarios and technologies, and better training for human operators in the system. The framework is recommended for the analysis of runway incursions to support safety improvements and the methodology is transferable to other areas of aviation safety risk analysis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematic exploration of efficient strategies to manage solid waste in U.S. municipalities: perspectives from the solid waste optimization life-cycle framework (SWOLF).

PubMed

Levis, James W; Barlaz, Morton A; Decarolis, Joseph F; Ranjithan, S Ranji

2014-04-01

Solid waste management (SWM) systems must proactively adapt to changing policy requirements, waste composition, and an evolving energy system to sustainably manage future solid waste. This study represents the first application of an optimizable dynamic life-cycle assessment framework capable of considering these future changes. The framework was used to draw insights by analyzing the SWM system of a hypothetical suburban U.S. city of 100 000 people over 30 years while considering changes to population, waste generation, and energy mix and costs. The SWM system included 3 waste generation sectors, 30 types of waste materials, and 9 processes for waste separation, treatment, and disposal. A business-as-usual scenario (BAU) was compared to three optimization scenarios that (1) minimized cost (Min Cost), (2) maximized diversion (Max Diversion), and (3) minimized greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Min GHG) from the system. The Min Cost scenario saved $7.2 million (12%) and reduced GHG emissions (3%) relative to the BAU scenario. Compared to the Max Diversion scenario, the Min GHG scenario cost approximately 27% less and more than doubled the net reduction in GHG emissions. The results illustrate how the timed-deployment of technologies in response to changes in waste composition and the energy system results in more efficient SWM system performance compared to what is possible from static analyses.

Leveraging prior quantitative knowledge in guiding pediatric drug development: a case study.

PubMed

Jadhav, Pravin R; Zhang, Jialu; Gobburu, Jogarao V S

2009-01-01

The manuscript presents the FDA's focus on leveraging prior knowledge in designing informative pediatric trial through this case study. In developing written request for Drug X, an anti-hypertensive for immediate blood pressure (BP) control, the sponsor and FDA conducted clinical trial simulations (CTS) to design trial with proper sample size and support the choice of dose range. The objective was to effectively use prior knowledge from adult patients for drug X, pediatric data from Corlopam (approved for a similar indication) trial and general experience in developing anti-hypertensive agents. Different scenarios governing the exposure response relationship in the pediatric population were simulated to perturb model assumptions. The choice of scenarios was based on the past observation that pediatric population is less responsive and sensitive compared with adults. The conceptual framework presented here should serve as an example on how the industry and FDA scientists can collaborate in designing the pediatric exclusivity trial. Using CTS, inter-disciplinary scientists with the sponsor and FDA can objectively discuss the choice of dose range, sample size, endpoints and other design elements. These efforts are believed to yield plausible trial design, qrational dosing recommendations and useful labeling information in pediatrics. Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Clinical simulation practise framework.

PubMed

Khalili, Hossein

2015-02-01

Historically, simulation has mainly been used to teach students hands-on skills in a relatively safe environment. With changes in the patient population, professional regulations and clinical environments, clinical simulation practise (CSP) must assist students to integrate and apply their theoretical knowledge and skills with their critical thinking, clinical judgement, prioritisation, problem solving, decision making, and teamwork skills to provide holistic care and treatment to their patients. CSP holds great potential to derive a positive transformation in students' transition into the workplace, by associating and consolidating learning from classrooms to clinical settings, and creating bridges between theory and practice. For CSP to be successful in filling the gap, the design and management of the simulation is crucial. In this article a new framework called 'Clinical simulation practise framework: A knowledge to action strategy in health professional education' is being introduced that aims to assist educators and curriculum developers in designing and managing their simulations. This CSP framework theorises that simulation as an experiential educational tool could improve students' competence, confidence and collaboration in performing professional practice in real settings if the CSP provides the following three dimensions: (1) a safe, positive, reflective and fun simulated learning environment; (2) challenging, but realistic, and integrated simulated scenarios; and (3) interactive, inclusive, interprofessional patient-centred simulated practise. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Framework for Reliability and Safety Analysis of Complex Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, John W.; Groen, Frank; Wang, Lui; Austin, Rebekah; Witulski, Art; Mahadevan, Nagabhushan; Cornford, Steven L.; Feather, Martin S.; Lindsey, Nancy

2017-01-01

Long duration and complex mission scenarios are characteristics of NASA's human exploration of Mars, and will provide unprecedented challenges. Systems reliability and safety will become increasingly demanding and management of uncertainty will be increasingly important. NASA's current pioneering strategy recognizes and relies upon assurance of crew and asset safety. In this regard, flexibility to develop and innovate in the emergence of new design environments and methodologies, encompassing modeling of complex systems, is essential to meet the challenges.

Controlling misses and false alarms in a machine learning framework for predicting uniformity of printed pages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Minh Q.; Allebach, Jan P.

2015-01-01

In our previous work1 , we presented a block-based technique to analyze printed page uniformity both visually and metrically. The features learned from the models were then employed in a Support Vector Machine (SVM) framework to classify the pages into one of the two categories of acceptable and unacceptable quality. In this paper, we introduce a set of tools for machine learning in the assessment of printed page uniformity. This work is primarily targeted to the printing industry, specifically the ubiquitous laser, electrophotographic printer. We use features that are well-correlated with the rankings of expert observers to develop a novel machine learning framework that allows one to achieve the minimum "false alarm" rate, subject to a chosen "miss" rate. Surprisingly, most of the research that has been conducted on machine learning does not consider this framework. During the process of developing a new product, test engineers will print hundreds of test pages, which can be scanned and then analyzed by an autonomous algorithm. Among these pages, most may be of acceptable quality. The objective is to find the ones that are not. These will provide critically important information to systems designers, regarding issues that need to be addressed in improving the printer design. A "miss" is defined to be a page that is not of acceptable quality to an expert observer that the prediction algorithm declares to be a "pass". Misses are a serious problem, since they represent problems that will not be seen by the systems designers. On the other hand, "false alarms" correspond to pages that an expert observer would declare to be of acceptable quality, but which are flagged by the prediction algorithm as "fails". In a typical printer testing and development scenario, such pages would be examined by an expert, and found to be of acceptable quality after all. "False alarm" pages result in extra pages to be examined by expert observers, which increases labor cost. But "false alarms" are not nearly as catastrophic as "misses", which represent potentially serious problems that are never seen by the systems developers. This scenario motivates us to develop a machine learning framework that will achieve the minimum "false alarm" rate subject to a specified "miss" rate. In order to construct such a set of receiver operating characteristic2 (ROC) curves, we examine various tools for the prediction, ranging from an exhaustive search over the space of the nonlinear discriminants to a Cost-Sentitive SVM3 framework. We then compare the curves gained from those methods. Our work shows promise for applying a standard framework to obtain a full ROC curve when it comes to tackling other machine learning problems in industry.

Coordinated scenarios for a transdisciplinary assessment of the scientific understanding of Arctic environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.; Holland, M. M.

2016-12-01

The Arctic is undergoing an exceptionally rapid transformation. Trying to predict or project the consequences of this change is pushing nearly every discipline in the physical, biogeochemical and social sciences towards the limits of their current understanding. Adequate data is missing to test and validate models for capturing a state of the Arctic system that we have not observed. But even more challenging is the systems-level evaluation, where impacts can quickly lead to unexpected outcomes with cascading repercussions throughout the different components and subcomponents of the environment. One approach to test our understanding, and to expose gaps in current observation strategies, modeling approaches as well as planning tools (e.g., forecast workflows, or decision frameworks) is to carefully design a small number of coordinated scenarios of plausible future states of the system, and then to study their diverse, potential impacts. A coordination of the scenarios is essential so that all disciplinary perspectives can be arranged around a common state, assumptions can be aligned, and a transdisciplinary conversation can be advanced from a common platform to form a comprehensive assessment of our knowledge. This presentation is a call to the community to join and assist the SEARCH program in designing effective scenarios that can be used for cross-cutting investigation of current limitations in our scientific understanding of how the Arctic environment might change, and what consequences these changes might bring to the physical, biological and social environments.

Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

2018-04-01

Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

A Quantitative Human Spacecraft Design Evaluation Model for Assessing Crew Accommodation and Utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanchiang, Christine

Crew performance, including both accommodation and utilization factors, is an integral part of every human spaceflight mission from commercial space tourism, to the demanding journey to Mars and beyond. Spacecraft were historically built by engineers and technologists trying to adapt the vehicle into cutting edge rocketry with the assumption that the astronauts could be trained and will adapt to the design. By and large, that is still the current state of the art. It is recognized, however, that poor human-machine design integration can lead to catastrophic and deadly mishaps. The premise of this work relies on the idea that if an accurate predictive model exists to forecast crew performance issues as a result of spacecraft design and operations, it can help designers and managers make better decisions throughout the design process, and ensure that the crewmembers are well-integrated with the system from the very start. The result should be a high-quality, user-friendly spacecraft that optimizes the utilization of the crew while keeping them alive, healthy, and happy during the course of the mission. Therefore, the goal of this work was to develop an integrative framework to quantitatively evaluate a spacecraft design from the crew performance perspective. The approach presented here is done at a very fundamental level starting with identifying and defining basic terminology, and then builds up important axioms of human spaceflight that lay the foundation for how such a framework can be developed. With the framework established, a methodology for characterizing the outcome using a mathematical model was developed by pulling from existing metrics and data collected on human performance in space. Representative test scenarios were run to show what information could be garnered and how it could be applied as a useful, understandable metric for future spacecraft design. While the model is the primary tangible product from this research, the more interesting outcome of this work is the structure of the framework and what it tells future researchers in terms of where the gaps and limitations exist for developing a better framework. It also identifies metrics that can now be collected as part of future validation efforts for the model.

Rehabilitation-Oriented Serious Game Development and Evaluation Guidelines for Musculoskeletal Disorders.

PubMed

Idriss, Mohamad; Tannous, Halim; Istrate, Dan; Perrochon, Anaick; Salle, Jean-Yves; Ho Ba Tho, Marie-Christine; Dao, Tien-Tuan

2017-07-04

The progress in information and communication technology (ICT) led to the development of a new rehabilitation technique called "serious game for functional rehabilitation." Previous works have shown that serious games can be used for general health and specific disease management. However, there is still lack of consensus on development and evaluation guidelines. It is important to note that the game performance depends on the designed scenario. The objective of this work was to develop specific game scenarios and evaluate them with a panel of musculoskeletal patients to propose game development and evaluation guidelines. A two-stage workflow was proposed using determinant framework. The development guideline includes the selection of three-dimensional (3D) computer graphics technologies and tools, the modeling of physical aspects, the design of rehabilitation scenarios, and the implementation of the proposed scenarios. The evaluation guideline consists of the definition of evaluation metrics, the execution of the evaluation campaign, the analysis of user results and feedbacks, and the improvement of the designed game. The case study for musculoskeletal disorders on the healthy control and patient groups showed the usefulness of these guidelines and associated games. All participants enjoyed the 2 developed games (football and object manipulation), and found them challenging and amusing. In particular, some healthy subjects increased their score when enhancing the level of difficulty. Furthermore, there were no risks and accidents associated with the execution of these games. It is expected that with the proven effectiveness of the proposed guidelines and associated games, this new rehabilitation game may be translated into clinical routine practice for the benefit of patients with musculoskeletal disorders. ©Mohamad Idriss, Halim Tannous, Dan Istrate, Anaick Perrochon, Jean-Yves Salle, Marie-Christine Ho Ba Tho, Tien-Tuan Dao. Originally published in JMIR Serious Games (http://games.jmir.org), 04.07.2017.

Rehabilitation-Oriented Serious Game Development and Evaluation Guidelines for Musculoskeletal Disorders

PubMed Central

Istrate, Dan; Perrochon, Anaick; Salle, Jean-Yves; Ho Ba Tho, Marie-Christine

2017-01-01

Background The progress in information and communication technology (ICT) led to the development of a new rehabilitation technique called “serious game for functional rehabilitation.” Previous works have shown that serious games can be used for general health and specific disease management. However, there is still lack of consensus on development and evaluation guidelines. It is important to note that the game performance depends on the designed scenario. Objective The objective of this work was to develop specific game scenarios and evaluate them with a panel of musculoskeletal patients to propose game development and evaluation guidelines. Methods A two-stage workflow was proposed using determinant framework. The development guideline includes the selection of three-dimensional (3D) computer graphics technologies and tools, the modeling of physical aspects, the design of rehabilitation scenarios, and the implementation of the proposed scenarios. The evaluation guideline consists of the definition of evaluation metrics, the execution of the evaluation campaign, the analysis of user results and feedbacks, and the improvement of the designed game. Results The case study for musculoskeletal disorders on the healthy control and patient groups showed the usefulness of these guidelines and associated games. All participants enjoyed the 2 developed games (football and object manipulation), and found them challenging and amusing. In particular, some healthy subjects increased their score when enhancing the level of difficulty. Furthermore, there were no risks and accidents associated with the execution of these games. Conclusions It is expected that with the proven effectiveness of the proposed guidelines and associated games, this new rehabilitation game may be translated into clinical routine practice for the benefit of patients with musculoskeletal disorders. PMID:28676468

Model based systems engineering (MBSE) applied to Radio Aurora Explorer (RAX) CubeSat mission operational scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangelo, S. C.; Cutler, J.; Anderson, L.; Fosse, E.; Cheng, L.; Yntema, R.; Bajaj, M.; Delp, C.; Cole, B.; Soremekum, G.; Kaslow, D.

Small satellites are more highly resource-constrained by mass, power, volume, delivery timelines, and financial cost relative to their larger counterparts. Small satellites are operationally challenging because subsystem functions are coupled and constrained by the limited available commodities (e.g. data, energy, and access times to ground resources). Furthermore, additional operational complexities arise because small satellite components are physically integrated, which may yield thermal or radio frequency interference. In this paper, we extend our initial Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) framework developed for a small satellite mission by demonstrating the ability to model different behaviors and scenarios. We integrate several simulation tools to execute SysML-based behavior models, including subsystem functions and internal states of the spacecraft. We demonstrate utility of this approach to drive the system analysis and design process. We demonstrate applicability of the simulation environment to capture realistic satellite operational scenarios, which include energy collection, the data acquisition, and downloading to ground stations. The integrated modeling environment enables users to extract feasibility, performance, and robustness metrics. This enables visualization of both the physical states (e.g. position, attitude) and functional states (e.g. operating points of various subsystems) of the satellite for representative mission scenarios. The modeling approach presented in this paper offers satellite designers and operators the opportunity to assess the feasibility of vehicle and network parameters, as well as the feasibility of operational schedules. This will enable future missions to benefit from using these models throughout the full design, test, and fly cycle. In particular, vehicle and network parameters and schedules can be verified prior to being implemented, during mission operations, and can also be updated in near real-time with oper- tional performance feedback.

A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Wein, Anne M.; Liu, Shuguang; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Acevedo, William

2012-01-01

Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and land-management activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.

A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Hawbaker, Todd; Wein, Anne; Liu, Shu-Guang; Kanengleter, Ronald; Acevedo, William

2012-01-01

Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and landmanagement activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.

A formal framework of scenario creation and analysis of extreme hydrological events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, D.

2007-12-01

We are presenting a formal framework for a hydrological risk analysis. Different measures of risk will be introduced, such as average annual loss or occurrence exceedance probability. These are important measures for e.g. insurance companies to determine the cost of insurance. One key aspect of investigating the potential consequences of extreme hydrological events (floods and draughts) is the creation of meteorological scenarios that reflect realistic spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation that also have correct local statistics. 100,000 years of these meteorological scenarios are used in a calibrated rainfall-runoff-flood-loss-risk model to produce flood and draught events that have never been observed. The results of this hazard model are statistically analyzed and linked to socio-economic data and vulnerability functions to show the impact of severe flood events. We are showing results from the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Europe Flood Model to introduce this formal framework.

Optimisation of simulated team training through the application of learning theories: a debate for a conceptual framework

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background As a conceptual review, this paper will debate relevant learning theories to inform the development, design and delivery of an effective educational programme for simulated team training relevant to health professionals. Discussion Kolb’s experiential learning theory is used as the main conceptual framework to define the sequence of activities. Dewey’s theory of reflective thought and action, Jarvis modification of Kolb’s learning cycle and Schön’s reflection-on-action serve as a model to design scenarios for optimal concrete experience and debriefing for challenging participants’ beliefs and habits. Bandura’s theory of self-efficacy and newer socio-cultural learning models outline that for efficient team training, it is mandatory to introduce the social-cultural context of a team. Summary The ideal simulated team training programme needs a scenario for concrete experience, followed by a debriefing with a critical reflexive observation and abstract conceptualisation phase, and ending with a second scenario for active experimentation. Let them re-experiment to optimise the effect of a simulated training session. Challenge them to the edge: The scenario needs to challenge participants to generate failures and feelings of inadequacy to drive and motivate team members to critical reflect and learn. Not experience itself but the inadequacy and contradictions of habitual experience serve as basis for reflection. Facilitate critical reflection: Facilitators and group members must guide and motivate individual participants through the debriefing session, inciting and empowering learners to challenge their own beliefs and habits. To do this, learners need to feel psychological safe. Let the group talk and critical explore. Motivate with reality and context: Training with multidisciplinary team members, with different levels of expertise, acting in their usual environment (in-situ simulation) on physiological variables is mandatory to introduce cultural context and social conditions to the learning experience. Embedding in situ team training sessions into a teaching programme to enable repeated training and to assess regularly team performance is mandatory for a cultural change of sustained improvement of team performance and patient safety. PMID:24694243

Prototype software model for designing intruder detection systems with simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Jeffrey S.; Peters, Brett A.; Curry, James C.; Gupta, Dinesh

1998-08-01

This article explores using discrete-event simulation for the design and control of defence oriented fixed-sensor- based detection system in a facility housing items of significant interest to enemy forces. The key issues discussed include software development, simulation-based optimization within a modeling framework, and the expansion of the framework to create real-time control tools and training simulations. The software discussed in this article is a flexible simulation environment where the data for the simulation are stored in an external database and the simulation logic is being implemented using a commercial simulation package. The simulation assesses the overall security level of a building against various intruder scenarios. A series of simulation runs with different inputs can determine the change in security level with changes in the sensor configuration, building layout, and intruder/guard strategies. In addition, the simulation model developed for the design stage of the project can be modified to produce a control tool for the testing, training, and real-time control of systems with humans and sensor hardware in the loop.

Incorporating Guideline Adherence and Practice Implementation Issues into the Design of Decision Support for Beta-Blocker Titration for Heart Failure.

PubMed

Smith, Michael W; Brown, Charnetta; Virani, Salim S; Weir, Charlene R; Petersen, Laura A; Kelly, Natalie; Akeroyd, Julia; Garvin, Jennifer H

2018-04-01

 The recognition of and response to undertreatment of heart failure (HF) patients can be complicated. A clinical reminder can facilitate use of guideline-concordant β-blocker titration for HF patients with depressed ejection fraction. However, the design must consider the cognitive demands on the providers and the context of the work.  This study's purpose is to develop requirements for a clinical decision support tool (a clinical reminder) by analyzing the cognitive demands of the task along with the factors in the Cabana framework of physician adherence to guidelines, the health information technology (HIT) sociotechnical framework, and the Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services (PARIHS) framework of health services implementation. It utilizes a tool that extracts information from medical records (including ejection fraction in free text reports) to identify qualifying patients at risk of undertreatment.  We conducted interviews with 17 primary care providers, 5 PharmDs, and 5 Registered Nurses across three Veterans Health Administration outpatient clinics. The interviews were based on cognitive task analysis (CTA) methods and enhanced through the inclusion of the Cabana, HIT sociotechnical, and PARIHS frameworks. The analysis of the interview data led to the development of requirements and a prototype design for a clinical reminder. We conducted a small pilot usability assessment of the clinical reminder using realistic clinical scenarios.  We identified organizational challenges (such as time pressures and underuse of pharmacists), knowledge issues regarding the guideline, and information needs regarding patient history and treatment status. We based the design of the clinical reminder on how to best address these challenges. The usability assessment indicated the tool could help the decision and titration processes.  Through the use of CTA methods enhanced with adherence, sociotechnical, and implementation frameworks, we designed a decision support tool that considers important challenges in the decision and execution of β-blocker titration for qualifying HF patients at risk of undertreatment. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

A framework for collecting inclusive design data for the UK population.

PubMed

Langdon, Pat; Johnson, Daniel; Huppert, Felicia; Clarkson, P John

2015-01-01

Successful inclusive product design requires knowledge about the capabilities, needs and aspirations of potential users and should cater for the different scenarios in which people will use products, systems and services. This should include: the individual at home; in the workplace; for businesses, and for products in these contexts. It needs to reflect the development of theory, tools and techniques as research moves on. And it must also to draw in wider psychological, social, and economic considerations in order to gain a more accurate understanding of users' interactions with products and technology. However, recent research suggests that although a number of national disability surveys have been carried out, no such knowledge currently exists as information to support the design of products, systems and services for heterogeneous users. This paper outlines the strategy behind specific inclusive design research that is aimed at creating the foundations for measuring inclusion in product designs. A key outcome of this future research will be specifying and operationalising capability, and psychological, social and economic context measures for inclusive design. This paper proposes a framework for capturing such information, describes an early pilot study, and makes recommendations for better practice. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Assessment and comparison of total RF-EMF exposure in femtocell and macrocell base station scenarios.

PubMed

Aerts, Sam; Plets, David; Verloock, Leen; Martens, Luc; Joseph, Wout

2014-12-01

The indoor coverage of a mobile service can be drastically improved by deployment of an indoor femtocell base station (FBS). However, the impact of its proximity on the total exposure of the human body to radio-frequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMFs) is unknown. Using a framework designed for the combination of near-field and far-field exposure, the authors assessed and compared the RF-EMF exposure of a mobile-phone (MP) user that is either connected to an FBS or a conventional macrocell base station while in an office environment. It is found that, in average macrocell coverage and MP use-time conditions and for Universal Mobile Telecommunications System technology, the total exposure can be reduced by a factor of 20-40 by using an FBS, mostly due to the significant decrease in the output power of the MP. In general, the framework presented in this study can be used for any exposure scenario, featuring any number of technologies, base stations and/or access points, users and duration. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global Simulation of Bioenergy Crop Productivity: Analytical Framework and Case Study for Switchgrass

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kang, Shujiang; Kline, Keith L; Nair, S. Surendran

A global energy crop productivity model that provides geospatially explicit quantitative details on biomass potential and factors affecting sustainability would be useful, but does not exist now. This study describes a modeling platform capable of meeting many challenges associated with global-scale agro-ecosystem modeling. We designed an analytical framework for bioenergy crops consisting of six major components: (i) standardized natural resources datasets, (ii) global field-trial data and crop management practices, (iii) simulation units and management scenarios, (iv) model calibration and validation, (v) high-performance computing (HPC) simulation, and (vi) simulation output processing and analysis. The HPC-Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (HPC-EPIC) model simulatedmore » a perennial bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), estimating feedstock production potentials and effects across the globe. This modeling platform can assess soil C sequestration, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, nonpoint source pollution (e.g., nutrient and pesticide loss), and energy exchange with the atmosphere. It can be expanded to include additional bioenergy crops (e.g., miscanthus, energy cane, and agave) and food crops under different management scenarios. The platform and switchgrass field-trial dataset are available to support global analysis of biomass feedstock production potential and corresponding metrics of sustainability.« less

Nonstationary decision model for flood risk decision scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, Caitlin M.; Brown, Casey M.

2016-11-01

Hydroclimatic stationarity is increasingly questioned as a default assumption in flood risk management (FRM), but successor methods are not yet established. Some potential successors depend on estimates of future flood quantiles, but methods for estimating future design storms are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Here we apply a Nonstationary Decision Model (NDM) to flood risk planning within the decision scaling framework. The NDM combines a nonstationary probability distribution of annual peak flow with optimal selection of flood management alternatives using robustness measures. The NDM incorporates structural and nonstructural FRM interventions and valuation of flows supporting ecosystem services to calculate expected cost of a given FRM strategy. A search for the minimum-cost strategy under incrementally varied representative scenarios extending across the plausible range of flood trend and value of the natural flow regime discovers candidate FRM strategies that are evaluated and compared through a decision scaling analysis (DSA). The DSA selects a management strategy that is optimal or close to optimal across the broadest range of scenarios or across the set of scenarios deemed most likely to occur according to estimates of future flood hazard. We illustrate the decision framework using a stylized example flood management decision based on the Iowa City flood management system, which has experienced recent unprecedented high flow episodes. The DSA indicates a preference for combining infrastructural and nonstructural adaptation measures to manage flood risk and makes clear that options-based approaches cannot be assumed to be "no" or "low regret."

PM2.5 Population Exposure in New Delhi Using a Probabilistic Simulation Framework.

PubMed

Saraswat, Arvind; Kandlikar, Milind; Brauer, Michael; Srivastava, Arun

2016-03-15

This paper presents a Geographical Information System (GIS) based probabilistic simulation framework to estimate PM2.5 population exposure in New Delhi, India. The framework integrates PM2.5 output from spatiotemporal LUR models and trip distribution data using a Gravity model based on zonal data for population, employment and enrollment in educational institutions. Time-activity patterns were derived from a survey of randomly sampled individuals (n = 1012) and in-vehicle exposure was estimated using microenvironmental monitoring data based on field measurements. We simulated population exposure for three different scenarios to capture stay-at-home populations (Scenario 1), working population exposed to near-road concentrations during commutes (Scenario 2), and the working population exposed to on-road concentrations during commutes (Scenario 3). Simulated annual average levels of PM2.5 exposure across the entire city were very high, and particularly severe in the winter months: ∼200 μg m(-3) in November, roughly four times higher compared to the lower levels in the monsoon season. Mean annual exposures ranged from 109 μg m(-3) (IQR: 97-120 μg m(-3)) for Scenario 1, to 121 μg m(-3) (IQR: 110-131 μg m(-3)), and 125 μg m(-3) (IQR: 114-136 μ gm(-3)) for Scenarios 2 and 3 respectively. Ignoring the effects of mobility causes the average annual PM2.5 population exposure to be underestimated by only 11%.

Development and Preliminary Testing of a Framework to Evaluate Patients' Experiences of the Fundamentals of Care: A Secondary Analysis of Three Stroke Survivor Narratives

PubMed Central

Kitson, Alison L.; Muntlin Athlin, Åsa

2013-01-01

Aim. To develop and test a framework describing the interrelationship of three key dimensions (physical, psychosocial, and relational) in the provision of the fundamentals of care to patients. Background. There are few conceptual frameworks to help healthcare staff, particularly nurses, know how to provide direct care around fundamental needs such as eating, drinking, and going to the toilet. Design. Deductive development of a conceptual framework and qualitative analysis of secondary interview data. Method. Framework development followed by a secondary in-depth analysis of primary narrative interview data from three stroke survivors. Results. Using the physical, psychosocial and relational dimensions to develop a conceptual framework, it was possible to identify a number of “archetypes” or scenarios that could explain stroke survivors' positive experiences of their care. Factors contributing to suboptimal care were also identified. Conclusions. This way of thinking about how the fundamentals of care are experienced by patients may help to elucidate the complex processes involved around providing high quality fundamentals of care. This analysis illustrates the multiple dimensions at play. However, more systematic investigation is required with further refining and testing with wider healthcare user groups. The framework has potential to be used as a predictive, evaluative, and explanatory tool. PMID:23864946

Design Patterns for Learning and Assessment: Facilitating the Introduction of a Complex Simulation-Based Learning Environment into a Community of Instructors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frezzo, Dennis C.; Behrens, John T.; Mislevy, Robert J.

2010-04-01

Simulation environments make it possible for science and engineering students to learn to interact with complex systems. Putting these capabilities to effective use for learning, and assessing learning, requires more than a simulation environment alone. It requires a conceptual framework for the knowledge, skills, and ways of thinking that are meant to be developed, in order to design activities that target these capabilities. The challenges of using simulation environments effectively are especially daunting in dispersed social systems. This article describes how these challenges were addressed in the context of the Cisco Networking Academies with a simulation tool for computer networks called Packet Tracer. The focus is on a conceptual support framework for instructors in over 9,000 institutions around the world for using Packet Tracer in instruction and assessment, by learning to create problem-solving scenarios that are at once tuned to the local needs of their students and consistent with the epistemic frame of "thinking like a network engineer." We describe a layered framework of tools and interfaces above the network simulator that supports the use of Packet Tracer in the distributed community of instructors and students.

Open-source software platform for medical image segmentation applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namías, R.; D'Amato, J. P.; del Fresno, M.

2017-11-01

Segmenting 2D and 3D images is a crucial and challenging problem in medical image analysis. Although several image segmentation algorithms have been proposed for different applications, no universal method currently exists. Moreover, their use is usually limited when detection of complex and multiple adjacent objects of interest is needed. In addition, the continually increasing volumes of medical imaging scans require more efficient segmentation software design and highly usable applications. In this context, we present an extension of our previous segmentation framework which allows the combination of existing explicit deformable models in an efficient and transparent way, handling simultaneously different segmentation strategies and interacting with a graphic user interface (GUI). We present the object-oriented design and the general architecture which consist of two layers: the GUI at the top layer, and the processing core filters at the bottom layer. We apply the framework for segmenting different real-case medical image scenarios on public available datasets including bladder and prostate segmentation from 2D MRI, and heart segmentation in 3D CT. Our experiments on these concrete problems show that this framework facilitates complex and multi-object segmentation goals while providing a fast prototyping open-source segmentation tool.

A framework to analyze emissions implications of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future uncertainty in regulations and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns. The framework integrates EPA’s energy systems model with an economic Input-Output (I/O) Life Cycle Assessment model. The EPAUS9r MARKAL database is assembled from a set of technologies to represent the U.S. energy system within MARKAL bottom-up technology rich energy modeling framework. The general state of the economy and consequent demands for goods and services from these sectors are taken exogenously in MARKAL. It is important to characterize exogenous inputs about the economy to appropriately represent the industrial sector outlook for each of the scenarios and case studies evaluated. An economic input-output (I/O) model of the US economy is constructed to link up with MARKAL. The I/O model enables user to change input requirements (e.g. energy intensity) for different sectors or the share of consumer income expended on a given good. This gives end-users a mechanism for modeling change in the two dimensions of technological progress and consumer preferences that define the future scenarios. The framework will then be extended to include environmental I/O framework to track life cycle emissions associated

Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jérôme; Brecha, Robert J.

This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to includemore » alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.« less

Developing a comprehensive framework for eutrophication management in off-stream artificial lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khorasani, Hamed; Kerachian, Reza; Malakpour-Estalaki, Siamak

2018-07-01

In this paper, a comprehensive and interdisciplinary framework for management of eutrophication in off-stream artificial lakes in semi-arid and arid regions is proposed. Identification of the lake's water resources system components and stakeholders, simulation of Phosphorus (P) export from upstream watershed, simulation of the lake water quality as well as simulation of water demands and supply, development of management scenarios for the lake and selecting the best scenario using social choice methods (i.e. discrete and fuzzy Borda counts) are the four main parts of the framework. The proposed framework is applied on Chitgar Artificial Lake (ChAL), the largest intra-urban artificial lake in Tehran which has been constructed in 2010-2013 for recreational purposes. The Load Apportionment Model (LAM) is used for the simulation of P loads from the point and non-point (diffusive) sources and the LakeMab model is used for the simulation of P dynamics in the lake. The management scenarios contain optimized rule curves for water intake/outtake blended with P management plans (i.e. removal of point sources of P load in the upstream watershed, construction of a hydroponic bio-filter or an advanced water treatment plant beside the lake for reduction of external loading of P and recycling lake water, alum treatment of lake sediments for controlling the internal loading of P as well as construction of a dry detention basin). The most preferred scenarios selected by the discrete Borda count are the low-cost alum treatment and dry detention basin, while the most preferred scenario according to fuzzy Borda count, which considers the uncertainty of model inputs, is the costly water treatment plant. In all preferred scenarios, water intake is conducted from flood flows in order to avoid conflict with downstream agricultural demands. In addition to decentralized decision making and stakeholders' participation, the proposed framework promotes the integration of the technical aspects such as the role of internal loading in lake eutrophication and separation of flood and non-flood flows in the off-stream lakes' systems.

A Framework for the Development of Context-Adaptable User Interfaces for Ubiquitous Computing Systems

PubMed Central

Varela, Gervasio; Paz-Lopez, Alejandro; Becerra, Jose A.; Duro, Richard

2016-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of developing user interfaces for Ubiquitous Computing (UC) and Ambient Intelligence (AmI) systems. These kind of systems are expected to provide a natural user experience, considering interaction modalities adapted to the user abilities and preferences and using whatever interaction devices are present in the environment. These interaction devices are not necessarily known at design time. The task is quite complicated due to the variety of devices and technologies, and the diversity of scenarios, and it usually burdens the developer with the need to create many different UIs in order to consider the foreseeable user-environment combinations. Here, we propose an UI abstraction framework for UC and AmI systems that effectively improves the portability of those systems between different environments and for different users. It allows developers to design and implement a single UI capable of being deployed with different devices and modalities regardless the physical location. PMID:27399711

FPGA-Based Efficient Hardware/Software Co-Design for Industrial Systems with Consideration of Output Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deliparaschos, Kyriakos M.; Michail, Konstantinos; Zolotas, Argyrios C.; Tzafestas, Spyros G.

2016-05-01

This work presents a field programmable gate array (FPGA)-based embedded software platform coupled with a software-based plant, forming a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) that is used to validate a systematic sensor selection framework. The systematic sensor selection framework combines multi-objective optimization, linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG)-type control, and the nonlinear model of a maglev suspension. A robustness analysis of the closed-loop is followed (prior to implementation) supporting the appropriateness of the solution under parametric variation. The analysis also shows that quantization is robust under different controller gains. While the LQG controller is implemented on an FPGA, the physical process is realized in a high-level system modeling environment. FPGA technology enables rapid evaluation of the algorithms and test designs under realistic scenarios avoiding heavy time penalty associated with hardware description language (HDL) simulators. The HIL technique facilitates significant speed-up in the required execution time when compared to its software-based counterpart model.

The cost of getting CCS wrong: Uncertainty, infrastructure design, and stranded CO 2

DOE PAGES

Middleton, Richard Stephen; Yaw, Sean Patrick

2018-01-11

Carbon capture, and storage (CCS) infrastructure will require industry—such as fossil-fuel power, ethanol production, and oil and gas extraction—to make massive investment in infrastructure. The cost of getting these investments wrong will be substantial and will impact the success of CCS technology. Multiple factors can and will impact the success of commercial-scale CCS, including significant uncertainties regarding capture, transport, and injection-storage decisions. Uncertainties throughout the CCS supply chain include policy, technology, engineering performance, economics, and market forces. In particular, large uncertainties exist for the injection and storage of CO 2. Even taking into account upfront investment in site characterization, themore » final performance of the storage phase is largely unknown until commercial-scale injection has started. We explore and quantify the impact of getting CCS infrastructure decisions wrong based on uncertain injection rates and uncertain CO 2 storage capacities using a case study managing CO 2 emissions from the Canadian oil sands industry in Alberta. We use SimCCS, a widely used CCS infrastructure design framework, to develop multiple CCS infrastructure scenarios. Each scenario consists of a CCS infrastructure network that connects CO 2 sources (oil sands extraction and processing) with CO 2 storage reservoirs (acid gas storage reservoirs) using a dedicated CO 2 pipeline network. Each scenario is analyzed under a range of uncertain storage estimates and infrastructure performance is assessed and quantified in terms of cost to build additional infrastructure to store all CO 2. We also include the role of stranded CO 2, CO 2 that a source was expecting to but cannot capture due substandard performance in the transport and storage infrastructure. Results show that the cost of getting the original infrastructure design wrong are significant and that comprehensive planning will be required to ensure that CCS becomes a successful climate mitigation technology. Here, we show that the concept of stranded CO 2 can transform a seemingly high-performing infrastructure design into the worst case scenario.« less

The cost of getting CCS wrong: Uncertainty, infrastructure design, and stranded CO 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Middleton, Richard Stephen; Yaw, Sean Patrick

Carbon capture, and storage (CCS) infrastructure will require industry—such as fossil-fuel power, ethanol production, and oil and gas extraction—to make massive investment in infrastructure. The cost of getting these investments wrong will be substantial and will impact the success of CCS technology. Multiple factors can and will impact the success of commercial-scale CCS, including significant uncertainties regarding capture, transport, and injection-storage decisions. Uncertainties throughout the CCS supply chain include policy, technology, engineering performance, economics, and market forces. In particular, large uncertainties exist for the injection and storage of CO 2. Even taking into account upfront investment in site characterization, themore » final performance of the storage phase is largely unknown until commercial-scale injection has started. We explore and quantify the impact of getting CCS infrastructure decisions wrong based on uncertain injection rates and uncertain CO 2 storage capacities using a case study managing CO 2 emissions from the Canadian oil sands industry in Alberta. We use SimCCS, a widely used CCS infrastructure design framework, to develop multiple CCS infrastructure scenarios. Each scenario consists of a CCS infrastructure network that connects CO 2 sources (oil sands extraction and processing) with CO 2 storage reservoirs (acid gas storage reservoirs) using a dedicated CO 2 pipeline network. Each scenario is analyzed under a range of uncertain storage estimates and infrastructure performance is assessed and quantified in terms of cost to build additional infrastructure to store all CO 2. We also include the role of stranded CO 2, CO 2 that a source was expecting to but cannot capture due substandard performance in the transport and storage infrastructure. Results show that the cost of getting the original infrastructure design wrong are significant and that comprehensive planning will be required to ensure that CCS becomes a successful climate mitigation technology. Here, we show that the concept of stranded CO 2 can transform a seemingly high-performing infrastructure design into the worst case scenario.« less

A framework for assessing cumulative effects in watersheds: an introduction to Canadian case studies.

PubMed

Dubé, Monique G; Duinker, Peter; Greig, Lorne; Carver, Martin; Servos, Mark; McMaster, Mark; Noble, Bram; Schreier, Hans; Jackson, Lee; Munkittrick, Kelly R

2013-07-01

From 2008 to 2013, a series of studies supported by the Canadian Water Network were conducted in Canadian watersheds in an effort to improve methods to assess cumulative effects. These studies fit under a common framework for watershed cumulative effects assessment (CEA). This article presents an introduction to the Special Series on Watershed CEA in IEAM including the framework and its impetus, a brief introduction to each of the articles in the series, challenges, and a path forward. The framework includes a regional water monitoring program that produces 3 core outputs: an accumulated state assessment, stressor-response relationships, and development of predictive cumulative effects scenario models. The framework considers core values, indicators, thresholds, and use of consistent terminology. It emphasizes that CEA requires 2 components, accumulated state quantification and predictive scenario forecasting. It recognizes both of these components must be supported by a regional, multiscale monitoring program. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Distributed Simulation as a modelling tool for the development of a simulation-based training programme for cardiovascular specialties.

PubMed

Kelay, Tanika; Chan, Kah Leong; Ako, Emmanuel; Yasin, Mohammad; Costopoulos, Charis; Gold, Matthew; Kneebone, Roger K; Malik, Iqbal S; Bello, Fernando

2017-01-01

Distributed Simulation is the concept of portable, high-fidelity immersive simulation. Here, it is used for the development of a simulation-based training programme for cardiovascular specialities. We present an evidence base for how accessible, portable and self-contained simulated environments can be effectively utilised for the modelling, development and testing of a complex training framework and assessment methodology. Iterative user feedback through mixed-methods evaluation techniques resulted in the implementation of the training programme. Four phases were involved in the development of our immersive simulation-based training programme: ( 1) initial conceptual stage for mapping structural criteria and parameters of the simulation training framework and scenario development ( n  = 16), (2) training facility design using Distributed Simulation , (3) test cases with clinicians ( n  = 8) and collaborative design, where evaluation and user feedback involved a mixed-methods approach featuring (a) quantitative surveys to evaluate the realism and perceived educational relevance of the simulation format and framework for training and (b) qualitative semi-structured interviews to capture detailed feedback including changes and scope for development. Refinements were made iteratively to the simulation framework based on user feedback, resulting in (4) transition towards implementation of the simulation training framework, involving consistent quantitative evaluation techniques for clinicians ( n  = 62). For comparative purposes, clinicians' initial quantitative mean evaluation scores for realism of the simulation training framework, realism of the training facility and relevance for training ( n  = 8) are presented longitudinally, alongside feedback throughout the development stages from concept to delivery, including the implementation stage ( n  = 62). Initially, mean evaluation scores fluctuated from low to average, rising incrementally. This corresponded with the qualitative component, which augmented the quantitative findings; trainees' user feedback was used to perform iterative refinements to the simulation design and components (collaborative design), resulting in higher mean evaluation scores leading up to the implementation phase. Through application of innovative Distributed Simulation techniques, collaborative design, and consistent evaluation techniques from conceptual, development, and implementation stages, fully immersive simulation techniques for cardiovascular specialities are achievable and have the potential to be implemented more broadly.

Development of a Distributed Parallel Computing Framework to Facilitate Regional/Global Gridded Crop Modeling with Various Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, W.; Engda, T. A.; Neff, J. C.; Herrick, J.

2017-12-01

Many crop models are increasingly used to evaluate crop yields at regional and global scales. However, implementation of these models across large areas using fine-scale grids is limited by computational time requirements. In order to facilitate global gridded crop modeling with various scenarios (i.e., different crop, management schedule, fertilizer, and irrigation) using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, we developed a distributed parallel computing framework in Python. Our local desktop with 14 cores (28 threads) was used to test the distributed parallel computing framework in Iringa, Tanzania which has 406,839 grid cells. High-resolution soil data, SoilGrids (250 x 250 m), and climate data, AgMERRA (0.25 x 0.25 deg) were also used as input data for the gridded EPIC model. The framework includes a master file for parallel computing, input database, input data formatters, EPIC model execution, and output analyzers. Through the master file for parallel computing, the user-defined number of threads of CPU divides the EPIC simulation into jobs. Then, Using EPIC input data formatters, the raw database is formatted for EPIC input data and the formatted data moves into EPIC simulation jobs. Then, 28 EPIC jobs run simultaneously and only interesting results files are parsed and moved into output analyzers. We applied various scenarios with seven different slopes and twenty-four fertilizer ranges. Parallelized input generators create different scenarios as a list for distributed parallel computing. After all simulations are completed, parallelized output analyzers are used to analyze all outputs according to the different scenarios. This saves significant computing time and resources, making it possible to conduct gridded modeling at regional to global scales with high-resolution data. For example, serial processing for the Iringa test case would require 113 hours, while using the framework developed in this study requires only approximately 6 hours, a nearly 95% reduction in computing time.

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

2009-12-01

Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access Transaction server: this component publishes the model outputs. The framework was successfully tested in two use scenarios of the GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity WG aiming to predict species distribution changes due to Climate Change factors, with the scientific patronage of the University of Colorado and the University of Alaska. The first scenario dealt with the Pikas specie regional distribution in the Great Basin area (North America). While, the second one concerned the modeling of the Arctic Food Chain species in the North Pole area -the relationships between different environmental parameters and Polar Bears distribution was analyzed. Results are published in the GEOSS AIP-2 web site: http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP2develop .

A Brokering Solution for Business Process Execution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoro, M.; Bigagli, L.; Roncella, R.; Mazzetti, P.; Nativi, S.

2012-12-01

Predicting the climate change impact on biodiversity and ecosystems, advancing our knowledge of environmental phenomena interconnection, assessing the validity of simulations and other key challenges of Earth Sciences require intensive use of environmental modeling. The complexity of Earth system requires the use of more than one model (often from different disciplines) to represent complex processes. The identification of appropriate mechanisms for reuse, chaining and composition of environmental models is considered a key enabler for an effective uptake of a global Earth Observation infrastructure, currently pursued by the international geospatial research community. The Group on Earth Observation (GEO) Model Web initiative aims to increase present accessibility and interoperability of environmental models, allowing their flexible composition into complex Business Processes (BPs). A few, basic principles are at the base of the Model Web concept (Nativi, et al.): 1. Open access 2. Minimal entry-barriers 3. Service-driven approach 4. Scalability In this work we propose an architectural solution aiming to contribute to the Model Web vision. This solution applies the Brokering approach for facilitiating complex multidisciplinary interoperability. The Brokering approach is currently adopted in the new GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI) as was presented at the last GEO Plenary meeting in Istanbul, November 2011. According to the Brokering principles, the designed system is flexible enough to support the use of multiple BP design (visual) tools, heterogeneous Web interfaces for model execution (e.g. OGC WPS, WSDL, etc.), and different Workflow engines. We designed and prototyped a component called BP Broker that is able to: (i) read an abstract BP, (ii) "compile" the abstract BP into an executable one (eBP) - in this phase the BP Broker might also provide recommendations for incomplete BPs and parameter mismatch resolution - and (iii) finally execute the eBP using a Workflow engine. The present implementation makes use of BPMN 2.0 notation for BP design and jBPM workflow engine for eBP execution; however, the strong decoupling which characterizes the design of the BP Broker easily allows supporting other technologies. The main benefits of the proposed approach are: (i) no need for a composition infrastructure, (ii) alleviation from technicalities of workflow definitions, (iii) support of incomplete BPs, and (iv) the reuse of existing BPs as atomic processes. The BP Broker was designed and prototyped in the EC funded projects EuroGEOSS (http://www.eurogeoss.eu) and UncertWeb (http://www.uncertweb.org); the latter project provided also the use scenarios that were used to test the framework: the eHabitat scenario (calculation habitat similarity likelihood) and the FERA scenario (impact of climate change on land-use and crop yield). Three more scenarios are presently under development. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant Agreements n. 248488 and n. 226487. References Nativi, S., Mazzetti, P., & Geller, G. (2012), "Environmental model access and interoperability: The GEO Model Web initiative". Environmental Modelling & Software , 1-15

A framework to predict the impacts of shale gas infrastructures on the forest fragmentation of an agroforest region.

PubMed

Racicot, Alexandre; Babin-Roussel, Véronique; Dauphinais, Jean-François; Joly, Jean-Sébastien; Noël, Pascal; Lavoie, Claude

2014-05-01

We propose a framework to facilitate the evaluation of the impacts of shale gas infrastructures (well pads, roads, and pipelines) on land cover features, especially with regards to forest fragmentation. We used a geographic information system and realistic development scenarios largely inspired by the PA (United States) experience, but adapted to a region of QC (Canada) with an already fragmented forest cover and a high gas potential. The scenario with the greatest impact results from development limited by regulatory constraints only, with no access to private roads for connecting well pads to the public road network. The scenario with the lowest impact additionally integrates ecological constraints (deer yards, maple woodlots, and wetlands). Overall the differences between these two scenarios are relatively minor, with <1 % of the forest cover lost in each case. However, large areas of core forests would be lost in both scenarios and the number of forest patches would increase by 13-21 % due to fragmentation. The pipeline network would have a much greater footprint on the land cover than access roads. Using data acquired since the beginning of the shale gas industry, we show that it is possible, within a reasonable time frame, to produce a robust assessment of the impacts of shale gas extraction. The framework we propose could easily be applied to other contexts or jurisdictions.

Learning theories 101: application to everyday teaching and scholarship.

PubMed

Kay, Denise; Kibble, Jonathan

2016-03-01

Shifts in educational research, in how scholarship in higher education is defined, and in how funding is appropriated suggest that educators within basic science fields can benefit from increased understanding of learning theory and how it applies to classroom practice. This article uses a mock curriculum design scenario as a framework for the introduction of five major learning theories. Foundational constructs and principles from each theory and how they apply to the proposed curriculum designs are described. A summative table that includes basic principles, constructs, and classroom applications as well as the role of the teacher and learner is also provided for each theory. Copyright © 2016 The American Physiological Society.

An Integrated Cyberenvironment for Event-Driven Environmental Observatory Research and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, J.; Minsker, B.; Butler, R.

2006-12-01

National environmental observatories will soon provide large-scale data from diverse sensor networks and community models. While much attention is focused on piping data from sensors to archives and users, truly integrating these resources into the everyday research activities of scientists and engineers across the community, and enabling their results and innovations to be brought back into the observatory, also critical to long-term success of the observatories, is often neglected. This talk will give an overview of the Environmental Cyberinfrastructure Demonstrator (ECID) Cyberenvironment for observatory-centric environmental research and education, under development at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA), which is designed to address these issues. Cyberenvironments incorporate collaboratory and grid technologies, web services, and other cyberinfrastructure into an overall framework that balances needs for efficient coordination and the ability to innovate. They are designed to support the full scientific lifecycle both in terms of individual experiments moving from data to workflows to publication and at the macro level where new discoveries lead to additional data, models, tools, and conceptual frameworks that augment and evolve community-scale systems such as observatories. The ECID cyberenvironment currently integrates five major components a collaborative portal, workflow engine, event manager, metadata repository, and social network personalization capabilities - that have novel features inspired by the Cyberenvironment concept and enabling powerful environmental research scenarios. A summary of these components and the overall cyberenvironment will be given in this talk, while other posters will give details on several of the components. The summary will be presented within the context of environmental use case scenarios created in collaboration with researchers from the WATERS (WATer and Environmental Research Systems) Network, a joint National Science Foundation-funded initiative of the hydrology and environmental engineering communities. The use case scenarios include identifying sensor anomalies in point- and streaming sensor data and notifying data managers in near-real time; and referring users of data or data products (e.g., workflows, publications) to related data or data products.

A bottom-up robust optimization framework for identifying river basin development pathways under deep climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Ray, P.; Brown, C.

2016-12-01

Hydroclimatic nonstationarity due to climate change poses challenges for long-term water infrastructure planning in river basin systems. While designing strategies that are flexible or adaptive hold intuitive appeal, development of well-performing strategies requires rigorous quantitative analysis that address uncertainties directly while making the best use of scientific information on the expected evolution of future climate. Multi-stage robust optimization (RO) offers a potentially effective and efficient technique for addressing the problem of staged basin-level planning under climate change, however the necessity of assigning probabilities to future climate states or scenarios is an obstacle to implementation, given that methods to reliably assign probabilities to future climate states are not well developed. We present a method that overcomes this challenge by creating a bottom-up RO-based framework that decreases the dependency on probability distributions of future climate and rather employs them after optimization to aid selection amongst competing alternatives. The iterative process yields a vector of `optimal' decision pathways each under the associated set of probabilistic assumptions. In the final phase, the vector of optimal decision pathways is evaluated to identify the solutions that are least sensitive to the scenario probabilities and are most-likely conditional on the climate information. The framework is illustrated for the planning of new dam and hydro-agricultural expansions projects in the Niger River Basin over a 45-year planning period from 2015 to 2060.

A Flexible Socioeconomic Scenarios Framework for the Study of Plausible Arctic Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reissell, A. K.; Peters, G. P.; Riahi, K.; Kroglund, M.; Lovecraft, A. L.; Nilsson, A. E.; Preston, B. L.; van Ruijven, B. J.

2016-12-01

Future developments of the Arctic region are associated with different drivers of change - climate, environmental, and socio-economic - and their interactions, and are highly uncertain. The uncertainty poses challenges for decision-making, calling for development of new analytical frameworks. Scenarios - coherent narratives describing potential futures, pathways to futures, and drivers of change along the way - can be used to explore the consequences of the key uncertainties, particularly in the long-term. In a participatory scenarios workshop, we used both top-down and bottom-up approaches for the development of a flexible socioeconomic scenarios framework. The top-down approach was linked to the global Integrated Assessment Modeling framework and its Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), developing an Arctic extension of the set of five storylines on the main socioeconomic uncertainties in global climate change research. The bottom-up approach included participatory development of narratives originating from within the Arctic region. For extension of global SSPs to the regional level, we compared the key elements in the global SSPs (Population, Human Development, Economy & Lifestyle, Policies & Institutions, Technology, and Environment & Natural Resources) and key elements in the Arctic. Additional key elements for the Arctic scenarios include, for example, seasonal migration, the large role of traditional knowledge and culture, mixed economy, nested governance structure, human and environmental security, quality of infrastructure. The bottom-up derived results suggested that the scenarios developed independent of the SSPs could be mapped back to the SSPs to demonstrate consistency with respect to representing similar boundary conditions. The two approaches are complimentary, as the top-down approach can be used to set the global socio-economic and climate boundary conditions, and the bottom-up approach providing the regional context. One key uncertainty and driving force is the demand for resources (global or regional) that was mapped against the role of governance as well as adaptive and transformative capacity among actors within the Arctic. Resources demand has significant influence on the society, culture, economy and environment of the Arctic.

A multi-stakeholder framework for urban runoff quality management: Application of social choice and bargaining techniques.

PubMed

Ghodsi, Seyed Hamed; Kerachian, Reza; Zahmatkesh, Zahra

2016-04-15

In this paper, an integrated framework is proposed for urban runoff management. To control and improve runoff quality and quantity, Low Impact Development (LID) practices are utilized. In order to determine the LIDs' areas and locations, the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II), which considers three objective functions of minimizing runoff volume, runoff pollution and implementation cost of LIDs, is utilized. In this framework, the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used for stream flow simulation. The non-dominated solutions provided by the NSGA-II are considered as management scenarios. To select the most preferred scenario, interactions among the main stakeholders in the study area with conflicting utilities are incorporated by utilizing bargaining models including a non-cooperative game, Nash model and social choice procedures of Borda count and approval voting. Moreover, a new social choice procedure, named pairwise voting method, is proposed and applied. Based on each conflict resolution approach, a scenario is identified as the ideal solution providing the LIDs' areas, locations and implementation cost. The proposed framework is applied for urban water quality and quantity management in the northern part of Tehran metropolitan city, Iran. Results show that the proposed pairwise voting method tends to select a scenario with a higher percentage of reduction in TSS (Total Suspended Solid) load and runoff volume, in comparison with the Borda count and approval voting methods. Besides, the Nash method presents a management scenario with the highest cost for LIDs' implementation and the maximum values for percentage of runoff volume reduction and TSS removal. The results also signify that selection of an appropriate management scenario by stakeholders in the study area depends on the available financial resources and the relative importance of runoff quality improvement in comparison with reducing the runoff volume. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph

2016-10-01

Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

Optimal surveillance strategy for invasive species management when surveys stop after detection.

PubMed

Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Hauser, Cindy E; McCarthy, Michael A

2014-05-01

Invasive species are a cause for concern in natural and economic systems and require both monitoring and management. There is a trade-off between the amount of resources spent on surveying for the species and conducting early management of occupied sites, and the resources that are ultimately spent in delayed management at sites where the species was present but undetected. Previous work addressed this optimal resource allocation problem assuming that surveys continue despite detection until the initially planned survey effort is consumed. However, a more realistic scenario is often that surveys stop after detection (i.e., follow a "removal" sampling design) and then management begins. Such an approach will indicate a different optimal survey design and can be expected to be more efficient. We analyze this case and compare the expected efficiency of invasive species management programs under both survey methods. We also evaluate the impact of mis-specifying the type of sampling approach during the program design phase. We derive analytical expressions that optimize resource allocation between monitoring and management in surveillance programs when surveys stop after detection. We do this under a scenario of unconstrained resources and scenarios where survey budget is constrained. The efficiency of surveillance programs is greater if a "removal survey" design is used, with larger gains obtained when savings from early detection are high, occupancy is high, and survey costs are not much lower than early management costs at a site. Designing a surveillance program disregarding that surveys stop after detection can result in an efficiency loss. Our results help guide the design of future surveillance programs for invasive species. Addressing program design within a decision-theoretic framework can lead to a better use of available resources. We show how species prevalence, its detectability, and the benefits derived from early detection can be considered.

Assessing Concentrations and Health Impacts of Air Quality Management Strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST)

PubMed Central

Milando, Chad W.; Martenies, Sheena E.; Batterman, Stuart A.

2017-01-01

In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest the potential for FRESH-EST to identify pollution control alternatives for air quality management planning. PMID:27318620

System to Detect Racial-Based Bullying through Gamification.

PubMed

Álvarez-Bermejo, José A; Belmonte-Ureña, Luis J; Martos-Martínez, Africa; Barragán-Martín, Ana B; Del Mar Simón-Marquez, María

2016-01-01

Prevention and detection of bullying due to racial stigma was studied in school contexts using a system designed following "gamification" principles and integrating less usual elements, such as social interaction, augmented reality and cell phones in educational scenarios. "Grounded Theory" and "User Centered Design" were employed to explore coexistence inside and outside the classroom in terms of preferences and distrust in several areas of action and social frameworks of activity, and to direct the development of a cell phone app for early detection of school bullying scenarios. One hundred and fifty-one interviews were given at five schools selected for their high multiracial percentage and conflict. The most outstanding results were structural, that is the distribution of the classroom group by type of activity and subject being dealt with. Furthermore, in groups over 12 years of age, the relational structures in the classroom in the digital settings in which they participated with their cell phones did not reoccur, because face-to-face and virtual interaction between students with the supervision and involvement of the teacher combined to detect bullying caused by racial discrimination.

A hydroeconomic modeling framework for optimal integrated management of forest and water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Prats, Alberto; del Campo, Antonio D.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-10-01

Forests play a determinant role in the hydrologic cycle, with water being the most important ecosystem service they provide in semiarid regions. However, this contribution is usually neither quantified nor explicitly valued. The aim of this study is to develop a novel hydroeconomic modeling framework for assessing and designing the optimal integrated forest and water management for forested catchments. The optimization model explicitly integrates changes in water yield in the stands (increase in groundwater recharge) induced by forest management and the value of the additional water provided to the system. The model determines the optimal schedule of silvicultural interventions in the stands of the catchment in order to maximize the total net benefit in the system. Canopy cover and biomass evolution over time were simulated using growth and yield allometric equations specific for the species in Mediterranean conditions. Silvicultural operation costs according to stand density and canopy cover were modeled using local cost databases. Groundwater recharge was simulated using HYDRUS, calibrated and validated with data from the experimental plots. In order to illustrate the presented modeling framework, a case study was carried out in a planted pine forest (Pinus halepensis Mill.) located in south-western Valencia province (Spain). The optimized scenario increased groundwater recharge. This novel modeling framework can be used in the design of a "payment for environmental services" scheme in which water beneficiaries could contribute to fund and promote efficient forest management operations.

Is an ecosystem services-based approach developed for setting specific protection goals for plant protection products applicable to other chemicals?

PubMed

Maltby, Lorraine; Jackson, Mathew; Whale, Graham; Brown, A Ross; Hamer, Mick; Solga, Andreas; Kabouw, Patrick; Woods, Richard; Marshall, Stuart

2017-02-15

Clearly defined protection goals specifying what to protect, where and when, are required for designing scientifically sound risk assessments and effective risk management of chemicals. Environmental protection goals specified in EU legislation are defined in general terms, resulting in uncertainty in how to achieve them. In 2010, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) published a framework to identify more specific protection goals based on ecosystem services potentially affected by plant protection products. But how applicable is this framework to chemicals with different emission scenarios and receptor ecosystems? Four case studies used to address this question were: (i) oil refinery waste water exposure in estuarine environments; (ii) oil dispersant exposure in aquatic environments; (iii) down the drain chemicals exposure in a wide range of ecosystems (terrestrial and aquatic); (iv) persistent organic pollutant exposure in remote (pristine) Arctic environments. A four-step process was followed to identify ecosystems and services potentially impacted by chemical emissions and to define specific protection goals. Case studies demonstrated that, in principle, the ecosystem services concept and the EFSA framework can be applied to derive specific protection goals for a broad range of chemical exposure scenarios. By identifying key habitats and ecosystem services of concern, the approach offers the potential for greater spatial and temporal resolution, together with increased environmental relevance, in chemical risk assessments. With modifications including improved clarity on terminology/definitions and further development/refinement of the key concepts, we believe the principles of the EFSA framework could provide a methodical approach to the identification and prioritization of ecosystems, ecosystem services and the service providing units that are most at risk from chemical exposure. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dose-finding designs using a novel quasi-continuous endpoint for multiple toxicities

PubMed Central

Ezzalfani, Monia; Zohar, Sarah; Qin, Rui; Mandrekar, Sumithra J; Deley, Marie-Cécile Le

2013-01-01

The aim of a phase I oncology trial is to identify a dose with an acceptable safety profile. Most phase I designs use the dose-limiting toxicity, a binary endpoint, to assess the unacceptable level of toxicity. The dose-limiting toxicity might be incomplete for investigating molecularly targeted therapies as much useful toxicity information is discarded. In this work, we propose a quasi-continuous toxicity score, the total toxicity profile (TTP), to measure quantitatively and comprehensively the overall severity of multiple toxicities. We define the TTP as the Euclidean norm of the weights of toxicities experienced by a patient, where the weights reflect the relative clinical importance of each grade and toxicity type. We propose a dose-finding design, the quasi-likelihood continual reassessment method (CRM), incorporating the TTP score into the CRM, with a logistic model for the dose–toxicity relationship in a frequentist framework. Using simulations, we compared our design with three existing designs for quasi-continuous toxicity score (the Bayesian quasi-CRM with an empiric model and two nonparametric designs), all using the TTP score, under eight different scenarios. All designs using the TTP score to identify the recommended dose had good performance characteristics for most scenarios, with good overdosing control. For a sample size of 36, the percentage of correct selection for the quasi-likelihood CRM ranged from 80% to 90%, with similar results for the quasi-CRM design. These designs with TTP score present an appealing alternative to the conventional dose-finding designs, especially in the context of molecularly targeted agents. PMID:23335156

Modeling false positive detections in species occurrence data under different study designs.

PubMed

Chambert, Thierry; Miller, David A W; Nichols, James D

2015-02-01

The occurrence of false positive detections in presence-absence data, even when they occur infrequently, can lead to severe bias when estimating species occupancy patterns. Building upon previous efforts to account for this source of observational error, we established a general framework to model false positives in occupancy studies and extend existing modeling approaches to encompass a broader range of sampling designs. Specifically, we identified three common sampling designs that are likely to cover most scenarios encountered by researchers. The different designs all included ambiguous detections, as well as some known-truth data, but their modeling differed in the level of the model hierarchy at which the known-truth information was incorporated (site level or observation level). For each model, we provide the likelihood, as well as R and BUGS code needed for implementation. We also establish a clear terminology and provide guidance to help choosing the most appropriate design and modeling approach.

Multi crop model climate risk country-level management design: case study on the Tanzanian maize production system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, E.

2015-12-01

Future climate projections indicate that a very serious consequence of post-industrial anthropogenic global warming is the likelihood of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme hydrometeorological events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. The design of national and international policies targeted at building more resilient and environmentally sustainable food systems needs to rely on access to robust and reliable data which is largely absent. In this context, the improvement of the modelling of current and future agricultural production losses using the unifying language of risk is paramount. In this study, we use a methodology that allows the integration of the current understanding of the various interacting systems of climate, agro-environment, crops, and the economy to determine short to long-term risk estimates of crop production loss, in different environmental, climate, and adaptation scenarios. This methodology is applied to Tanzania to assess optimum risk reduction and maize production increase paths in different climate scenarios. The simulations carried out use inputs from three different crop models (DSSAT, APSIM, WRSI) run in different technological scenarios and thus allowing to estimate crop model-driven risk exposure estimation bias. The results obtained also allow distinguishing different region-specific optimum climate risk reduction policies subject to historical as well as RCP2.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The region-specific risk profiles obtained provide a simple framework to determine cost-effective risk management policies for Tanzania and allow to optimally combine investments in risk reduction and risk transfer.

A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on Critical Infrastructures.

PubMed

Oakes, Benjamin Donald; Mattsson, Lars-Göran; Näsman, Per; Glazunov, Andrés Alayón

2018-06-01

Modern infrastructures are becoming increasingly dependent on electronic systems, leaving them more vulnerable to electrical surges or electromagnetic interference. Electromagnetic disturbances appear in nature, e.g., lightning and solar wind; however, they may also be generated by man-made technology to maliciously damage or disturb electronic equipment. This article presents a systematic risk assessment framework for identifying possible, consequential, and plausible intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) attacks on an arbitrary distribution network infrastructure. In the absence of available data on IEMI occurrences, we find that a systems-based risk assessment is more useful than a probabilistic approach. We therefore modify the often applied definition of risk, i.e., a set of triplets containing scenario, probability, and consequence, to a set of quadruplets: scenario, resource requirements, plausibility, and consequence. Probability is "replaced" by resource requirements and plausibility, where the former is the minimum amount and type of equipment necessary to successfully carry out an attack scenario and the latter is a subjective assessment of the extent of the existence of attackers who possess the motivation, knowledge, and resources necessary to carry out the scenario. We apply the concept of intrusion areas and classify electromagnetic source technology according to key attributes. Worst-case scenarios are identified for different quantities of attacker resources. The most plausible and consequential of these are deemed the most important scenarios and should provide useful decision support in a countermeasures effort. Finally, an example of the proposed risk assessment framework, based on notional data, is provided on a hypothetical water distribution network. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Modular Simulation Framework for Assessing Swarm Search Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

SUBTITLE A MODULAR SIMULATION FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING SWARM SEARCH MODELS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Blake M. Wanier 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION...Numerical studies demonstrate the ability to leverage the developed simulation and analysis framework to investigate three canonical swarm search models ...as benchmarks for future exploration of more sophisticated swarm search scenarios. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Swarm Search, Search Theory, Modeling Framework

Designing flexible engineering systems utilizing embedded architecture options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, Jeff G.

This dissertation develops and applies an integrated framework for embedding flexibility in an engineered system architecture. Systems are constantly faced with unpredictability in the operational environment, threats from competing systems, obsolescence of technology, and general uncertainty in future system demands. Current systems engineering and risk management practices have focused almost exclusively on mitigating or preventing the negative consequences of uncertainty. This research recognizes that high uncertainty also presents an opportunity to design systems that can flexibly respond to changing requirements and capture additional value throughout the design life. There does not exist however a formalized approach to designing appropriately flexible systems. This research develops a three stage integrated flexibility framework based on the concept of architecture options embedded in the system design. Stage One defines an eight step systems engineering process to identify candidate architecture options. This process encapsulates the operational uncertainty though scenario development, traces new functional requirements to the affected design variables, and clusters the variables most sensitive to change. The resulting clusters can generate insight into the most promising regions in the architecture to embed flexibility in the form of architecture options. Stage Two develops a quantitative option valuation technique, grounded in real options theory, which is able to value embedded architecture options that exhibit variable expiration behavior. Stage Three proposes a portfolio optimization algorithm, for both discrete and continuous options, to select the optimal subset of architecture options, subject to budget and risk constraints. Finally, the feasibility, extensibility and limitations of the framework are assessed by its application to a reconnaissance satellite system development problem. Detailed technical data, performance models, and cost estimates were compiled for the Tactical Imaging Constellation Architecture Study and leveraged to complete a realistic proof-of-concept.

Optical datacenter network employing slotted (TDMA) operation for dynamic resource allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakopoulos, P.; Tokas, K.; Spatharakis, C.; Patronas, I.; Landi, G.; Christodoulopoulos, K.; Capitani, M.; Kyriakos, A.; Aziz, M.; Reisis, D.; Varvarigos, E.; Zahavi, E.; Avramopoulos, H.

2018-02-01

The soaring traffic demands in datacenter networks (DCNs) are outpacing progresses in CMOS technology, challenging the bandwidth and energy scalability of currently established technologies. Optical switching is gaining traction as a promising path for sustaining the explosive growth of DCNs; however, its practical deployment necessitates extensive modifications to the network architecture and operation, tailored to the technological particularities of optical switches (i.e. no buffering, limitations in radix size and speed). European project NEPHELE is developing an optical network infrastructure that leverages optical switching within a software-defined networking (SDN) framework to overcome the bandwidth and energy scaling challenges of datacenter networks. An experimental validation of the NEPHELE data plane is reported based on commercial off-the-shelf optical components controlled by FPGA boards. To facilitate dynamic allocation of the network resources and perform collision-free routing in a lossless network environment, slotted operation is employed (i.e. using time-division multiple-access - TDMA). Error-free operation of the NEPHELE data plane is verified for 200 μs slots in various scenarios that involve communication between Ethernet hosts connected to custom-designed top-of-rack (ToR) switches, located in the same or in different datacenter pods. Control of the slotted data plane is obtained through an SDN framework comprising an OpenDaylight controller with appropriate add-ons. Communication between servers in the optical-ToR is demonstrated with various routing scenarios, concerning communication between hosts located in the same rack or in different racks, within the same or different datacenter pods. Error-free operation is confirmed for all evaluated scenarios, underpinning the feasibility of the NEPHELE architecture.

Virtual machine-based simulation platform for mobile ad-hoc network-based cyber infrastructure

DOE PAGES

Yoginath, Srikanth B.; Perumalla, Kayla S.; Henz, Brian J.

2015-09-29

In modeling and simulating complex systems such as mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs) in de-fense communications, it is a major challenge to reconcile multiple important considerations: the rapidity of unavoidable changes to the software (network layers and applications), the difficulty of modeling the critical, implementation-dependent behavioral effects, the need to sustain larger scale scenarios, and the desire for faster simulations. Here we present our approach in success-fully reconciling them using a virtual time-synchronized virtual machine(VM)-based parallel ex-ecution framework that accurately lifts both the devices as well as the network communications to a virtual time plane while retaining full fidelity. At themore » core of our framework is a scheduling engine that operates at the level of a hypervisor scheduler, offering a unique ability to execute multi-core guest nodes over multi-core host nodes in an accurate, virtual time-synchronized manner. In contrast to other related approaches that suffer from either speed or accuracy issues, our framework provides MANET node-wise scalability, high fidelity of software behaviors, and time-ordering accuracy. The design and development of this framework is presented, and an ac-tual implementation based on the widely used Xen hypervisor system is described. Benchmarks with synthetic and actual applications are used to identify the benefits of our approach. The time inaccuracy of traditional emulation methods is demonstrated, in comparison with the accurate execution of our framework verified by theoretically correct results expected from analytical models of the same scenarios. In the largest high fidelity tests, we are able to perform virtual time-synchronized simulation of 64-node VM-based full-stack, actual software behaviors of MANETs containing a mix of static and mobile (unmanned airborne vehicle) nodes, hosted on a 32-core host, with full fidelity of unmodified ad-hoc routing protocols, unmodified application executables, and user-controllable physical layer effects including inter-device wireless signal strength, reachability, and connectivity.« less

Virtual machine-based simulation platform for mobile ad-hoc network-based cyber infrastructure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoginath, Srikanth B.; Perumalla, Kayla S.; Henz, Brian J.

In modeling and simulating complex systems such as mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs) in de-fense communications, it is a major challenge to reconcile multiple important considerations: the rapidity of unavoidable changes to the software (network layers and applications), the difficulty of modeling the critical, implementation-dependent behavioral effects, the need to sustain larger scale scenarios, and the desire for faster simulations. Here we present our approach in success-fully reconciling them using a virtual time-synchronized virtual machine(VM)-based parallel ex-ecution framework that accurately lifts both the devices as well as the network communications to a virtual time plane while retaining full fidelity. At themore » core of our framework is a scheduling engine that operates at the level of a hypervisor scheduler, offering a unique ability to execute multi-core guest nodes over multi-core host nodes in an accurate, virtual time-synchronized manner. In contrast to other related approaches that suffer from either speed or accuracy issues, our framework provides MANET node-wise scalability, high fidelity of software behaviors, and time-ordering accuracy. The design and development of this framework is presented, and an ac-tual implementation based on the widely used Xen hypervisor system is described. Benchmarks with synthetic and actual applications are used to identify the benefits of our approach. The time inaccuracy of traditional emulation methods is demonstrated, in comparison with the accurate execution of our framework verified by theoretically correct results expected from analytical models of the same scenarios. In the largest high fidelity tests, we are able to perform virtual time-synchronized simulation of 64-node VM-based full-stack, actual software behaviors of MANETs containing a mix of static and mobile (unmanned airborne vehicle) nodes, hosted on a 32-core host, with full fidelity of unmodified ad-hoc routing protocols, unmodified application executables, and user-controllable physical layer effects including inter-device wireless signal strength, reachability, and connectivity.« less

Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Material Selection of High Energy Performance Residential Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Čuláková, Monika; Vilčeková, Silvia; Katunská, Jana; Krídlová Burdová, Eva

2013-11-01

In world with limited amount of energy sources and with serious environmental pollution, interest in comparing the environmental embodied impacts of buildings using different structure systems and alternative building materials will be increased. This paper shows the significance of life cycle energy and carbon perspective and the material selection in reducing energy consumption and emissions production in the built environment. The study evaluates embodied environmental impacts of nearly zero energy residential structures. The environmental assessment uses framework of LCA within boundary: cradle to gate. Designed alternative scenarios of material compositions are also assessed in terms of energy effectiveness through selected thermal-physical parameters. This study uses multi-criteria decision analysis for making clearer selection between alternative scenarios. The results of MCDA show that alternative E from materials on nature plant base (wood, straw bales, massive wood panel) present possible way to sustainable perspective of nearly zero energy houses in Slovak republic

A COMPUTATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATION OF NPS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS: ROLE OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY

EPA Science Inventory

Utility of complex distributed-parameter watershed models for evaluation of the effectiveness of non-point source sediment and nutrient abatement scenarios such as Best Management Practices (BMPs) often follows the traditional {calibrate ---> validate ---> predict} procedure. Des...

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces of land change, and is transferable to other case study areas with different land use change processes and consequences. The framework starts with the involvement of stakeholders where driving forces of land use change are being studied by performing interviews and group discussions. In order to bridge the gap between qualitative methods and conventional geospatial techniques, we applied cognitive mapping and the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact and Response framework (DPSIR) to develop a conceptual land use change model. This was later transformed into a spatially explicit land use change model based on remote sensing data, GIS and cellular automata spatial allocation. The methodology was developed and applied in a study area in the eastern Italian Alps, where the uncertainties regarding future urban expansion are high. Later, we transferred it to a study area in the Romanian Carpathians, where the identified prevailing process of land use change is deforestation. Both areas are subject to hydro-meteorological risk, posing a need for the analysis of the possible future spatial pattern and locations of land use change. The resulting scenarios enabled us, to point at identifying hot-spots of land use change, serving as a possible input for a risk assessment.

Framework for Derivation of Water Quality Criteria Using the Biotic Ligand Model: Copper as a Case Study.

PubMed

Gondek, John C; Gensemer, Robert W; Claytor, Carrie A; Canton, Steven P; Gorsuch, Joseph W

2018-06-01

Acceptance of the Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) to derive aquatic life criteria, for metals in general and copper in particular, is growing amongst regulatory agencies worldwide. Thus, it is important to ensure that water quality data are used appropriately and consistently in deriving such criteria. Here we present a suggested BLM implementation framework (hereafter referred to as "the Framework") to help guide the decision-making process when designing sampling and analysis programs for use of the BLM to derive water quality criteria applied on a site-specific basis. Such a framework will help inform stakeholders on the requirements needed to derive BLM-based criteria, and thus, ensure the appropriate types and amount of data are being collected and interpreted. The Framework was developed for calculating BLM-based criteria when data are available from multiple sampling locations on a stream. The Framework aspires to promote consistency when applying the BLM across datasets of disparate water quality, data quantity, and spatial and temporal representativeness, and is meant to be flexible to maximize applicability over a wide range of scenarios. Therefore, the Framework allows for a certain level of interpretation and adjustment to address the issues unique to each dataset. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Modules: A New Tool in the Emissions Modeling Framework

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-08-14

The Emissions Modeling Framework (EMF) is used by various organizations, including the US Environmental Protection Agency, to manage their emissions inventories, projections, and emissions modeling scenarios. Modules are a new tool under develo...

Optimization of green infrastructure network at semi-urbanized watersheds to manage stormwater volume, peak flow and life cycle cost: Case study of Dead Run watershed in Maryland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari Haratmeh, B.; Rai, A.; Minsker, B. S.

2016-12-01

Green Infrastructure (GI) has become widely known as a sustainable solution for stormwater management in urban environments. Despite more recognition and acknowledgment, researchers and practitioners lack clear and explicit guidelines on how GI practices should be implemented in urban settings. This study is developing a noisy-based multi-objective, multi-scaled genetic algorithm that determines optimal GI networks for environmental, economic and social objectives. The methodology accounts for uncertainty in modeling results and is designed to perform at sub-watershed as well as patch scale using two different simulation models, SWMM and RHESSys, in a Cloud-based implementation using a Web interface. As an initial case study, a semi-urbanized watershed— DeadRun 5— in Baltimore County, Maryland, is selected. The objective of the study is to minimize life cycle cost, maximize human preference for human well-being and the difference between pre-development hydrographs generated from current rainfall events and design storms, as well as those that result from proposed GI scenarios. Initial results for DeadRun5 watershed suggest that placing GI in the proximity of the watershed outlet optimizes life cycle cost, stormwater volume, and peak flow capture. The framework can easily present outcomes of GI design scenarios to both designers and local stakeholders, and future plans include receiving feedback from users on candidate designs, and interactively updating optimal GI network designs in a crowd-sourced design process. This approach can also be helpful in deriving design guidelines that better meet stakeholder needs.

Drivers of Microbial Risk for Direct Potable Reuse and de Facto Reuse Treatment Schemes: The Impacts of Source Water Quality and Blending.

PubMed

Chaudhry, Rabia M; Hamilton, Kerry A; Haas, Charles N; Nelson, Kara L

2017-06-13

Although reclaimed water for potable applications has many potential benefits, it poses concerns for chemical and microbial risks to consumers. We present a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) Monte Carlo framework to compare a de facto water reuse scenario (treated wastewater-impacted surface water) with four hypothetical Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) scenarios for Norovirus, Cryptosporidium , and Salmonella . Consumer microbial risks of surface source water quality (impacted by 0-100% treated wastewater effluent) were assessed. Additionally, we assessed risks for different blending ratios (0-100% surface water blended into advanced-treated DPR water) when source surface water consisted of 50% wastewater effluent. De facto reuse risks exceeded the yearly 10 -4 infections risk benchmark while all modeled DPR risks were significantly lower. Contamination with 1% or more wastewater effluent in the source water, and blending 1% or more wastewater-impacted surface water into the advanced-treated DPR water drove the risk closer to the 10 -4 benchmark. We demonstrate that de facto reuse by itself, or as an input into DPR, drives microbial risks more so than the advanced-treated DPR water. When applied using location-specific inputs, this framework can contribute to project design and public awareness campaigns to build legitimacy for DPR.

Drivers of Microbial Risk for Direct Potable Reuse and de Facto Reuse Treatment Schemes: The Impacts of Source Water Quality and Blending

PubMed Central

Chaudhry, Rabia M.; Hamilton, Kerry A.; Haas, Charles N.; Nelson, Kara L.

2017-01-01

Although reclaimed water for potable applications has many potential benefits, it poses concerns for chemical and microbial risks to consumers. We present a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) Monte Carlo framework to compare a de facto water reuse scenario (treated wastewater-impacted surface water) with four hypothetical Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) scenarios for Norovirus, Cryptosporidium, and Salmonella. Consumer microbial risks of surface source water quality (impacted by 0–100% treated wastewater effluent) were assessed. Additionally, we assessed risks for different blending ratios (0–100% surface water blended into advanced-treated DPR water) when source surface water consisted of 50% wastewater effluent. De facto reuse risks exceeded the yearly 10−4 infections risk benchmark while all modeled DPR risks were significantly lower. Contamination with 1% or more wastewater effluent in the source water, and blending 1% or more wastewater-impacted surface water into the advanced-treated DPR water drove the risk closer to the 10−4 benchmark. We demonstrate that de facto reuse by itself, or as an input into DPR, drives microbial risks more so than the advanced-treated DPR water. When applied using location-specific inputs, this framework can contribute to project design and public awareness campaigns to build legitimacy for DPR. PMID:28608808

Cultural ergonomics in interactional and experiential design: conceptual framework and case study of the Taiwanese twin cup.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Long; Chen, Si-Jing; Hsiao, Wen-Hsin; Lin, Rungtai

2016-01-01

Cultural ergonomics is an approach that considers interaction- and experience-based variations among cultures. Designers need to develop a better understanding of cultural ergonomics not just to participate in cultural contexts but also to develop interactive experiences for users. Cultural ergonomics extends our understanding of cultural meaning and our ability to utilize such understanding for design and evaluate everyday products. This study aims to combine cultural ergonomics and interactive design to explore human-culture interaction in user experiences. The linnak is a typical Taiwanese aboriginal cultural object. This study examined the cultural meaning and operational interface of the linnak, as well as the scenarios in which it is used in interaction and user experiences. The results produced a cultural ergonomics interface for examining the manner in which designers communicate across cultures as well as the interweaving of design and culture in the design process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Towards Ubiquitous Peer Review Strategies to Sustain and Enhance a Clinical Knowledge Management Framework

PubMed Central

Rocha, Roberto A.; Bradshaw, Richard L.; Bigelow, Sharon M.; Hanna, Timothy P.; Fiol, Guilherme Del; Hulse, Nathan C.; Roemer, Lorrie K.; Wilkinson, Steven G.

2006-01-01

Widespread cooperation between domain experts and front-line clinicians is a key component of any successful clinical knowledge management framework. Peer review is an established form of cooperation that promotes the dissemination of new knowledge. The authors describe three peer collaboration scenarios that have been implemented using the knowledge management infrastructure available at Intermountain Healthcare. Utilization results illustrating the early adoption patterns of the proposed scenarios are presented and discussed, along with succinct descriptions of planned enhancements and future implementation efforts. PMID:17238422

Operationalising a social-ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean.

PubMed

Crépin, Anne-Sophie; Gren, Åsa; Engström, Gustav; Ospina, Daniel

2017-12-01

We propose a framework to support management that builds on a social-ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean. We illustrate the framework's application for two policy-relevant scenarios of climate-driven change, picturing a shift in zooplankton composition and alternatively a crab invasion. We analyse archetypical system dynamics between the socio-economic, the natural, and the governance systems in these scenarios. Our holistic approach can help managers identify looming problems arising from complex system interactions and prioritise among problems and solutions, even when available data are limited.

A Concise and Practical Framework for the Development and Usability Evaluation of Patient Information Websites.

PubMed

Peute, L W; Knijnenburg, S L; Kremer, L C; Jaspers, M W M

2015-01-01

The Website Developmental Model for the Healthcare Consumer (WDMHC) is an extensive and successfully evaluated framework that incorporates user-centered design principles. However, due to its extensiveness its application is limited. In the current study we apply a subset of the WDMHC framework in a case study concerning the development and evaluation of a website aimed at childhood cancer survivors (CCS). To assess whether the implementation of a limited subset of the WDMHC-framework is sufficient to deliver a high-quality website with few usability problems, aimed at a specific patient population. The website was developed using a six-step approach divided into three phases derived from the WDMHC: 1) information needs analysis, mock-up creation and focus group discussion; 2) website prototype development; and 3) heuristic evaluation (HE) and think aloud analysis (TA). The HE was performed by three double experts (knowledgeable both in usability engineering and childhood cancer survivorship), who assessed the site using the Nielsen heuristics. Eight end-users were invited to complete three scenarios covering all functionality of the website by TA. The HE and TA were performed concurrently on the website prototype. The HE resulted in 29 unique usability issues; the end-users performing the TA encountered eleven unique problems. Four issues specifically revealed by HE concerned cosmetic design flaws, whereas two problems revealed by TA were related to website content. Based on the subset of the WDMHC framework we were able to deliver a website that closely matched the expectancy of the end-users and resulted in relatively few usability problems during end-user testing. With the successful application of this subset of the WDMHC, we provide developers with a clear and easily applicable framework for the development of healthcare websites with high usability aimed at specific medical populations.

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

PubMed

Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

2016-07-24

There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

A scenario framework to explore the future migration and adaptation in deltas: A multi-scale and participatory approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kebede, Abiy S.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Inaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hill, Chris T.; Hutton, Craig W.; Kay, Susan; Lawn, Jon; Lazar, Attila N.; Whitehead, Paul W.

2017-04-01

Coastal deltas are home for over 500 million people globally, and they have been identified as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments during the 21st century. They are susceptible to multiple climatic (e.g., sea-level rise, storm surges, change in temperature and precipitation) and socio-economic (e.g., human-induced subsidence, population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth) drivers of change. These drivers also operate at multiple scales, ranging from local to global and short- to long-term. This highlights the complex challenges deltas face in terms of both their long-term sustainability as well as the well-being of their residents and the health of ecosystems that support the livelihood of large (often very poor) population under uncertain changing conditions. A holistic understanding of these challenges and the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes is central for devising robust adaptation policies. Scenario analysis has long been identified as a strategic management tool to explore future climate change and its impacts for supporting robust decision-making under uncertainty. This work presents the overall scenario framework, methodology, and processes adopted for the development of scenarios in the DECCMA* project. DECCMA is analysing the future of three deltas in South Asia and West Africa: (i) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Volta delta (Ghana). This includes comparisons between these three deltas. Hence, the scenario framework comprises a multi-scale hybrid approach, with six levels of scenario considerations: (i) global (climate change, e.g., sea-level rise, temperature change; and socio-economic assumptions, e.g., population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth); (ii) regional catchments (e.g., river flow modelling), (iii) regional seas (e.g., fisheries modelling), (iv) regional politics (e.g., transboundary disputes), (v) national (e.g., socio-economic factors), and (vi) delta-scale (e.g., future adaptation and migration policies) scenarios. The framework includes and combines expert-based and participatory approaches and provides improved specification of the role of scenarios to analyse the future state of adaptation and migration across the three deltas. It facilitates the development of appropriate and consistent endogenous and exogenous scenario futures: (i) at the delta-scale, (ii) across all deltas, and (iii) with wider climate change, environmental change, and adaptation & migration research. Key words: Coastal deltas, sea-level rise, migration and adaptation, multi-scale scenarios, participatory approach *DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) project is part of the Collaborative ADAPTATION Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

PubMed

Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

2016-03-01

A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A mixed-methods study of the causes and impact of poor teamwork between junior doctors and nurses.

PubMed

O'connor, Paul; O'dea, Angela; Lydon, Sinéad; Offiah, Gozie; Scott, Jennifer; Flannery, Antoinette; Lang, Bronagh; Hoban, Anthony; Armstrong, Catherine; Byrne, Dara

2016-06-01

This study aimed to collect and analyse examples of poor teamwork between junior doctors and nurses; identify the teamwork failures contributing to poor team function; and ascertain if particular teamwork failures are associated with higher levels of risk to patients. Critical Incident Technique interviews were carried out with junior doctors and nurses. Two teaching hospitals in the Republic of Ireland. Junior doctors (n = 28) and nurses (n = 8) provided descriptions of scenarios of poor teamwork. The interviews were coded against a theoretical framework of healthcare team function by three psychologists and were also rated for risk to patients by four doctors and three nurses. A total of 33 of the scenarios met the inclusion criteria for analysis. A total of 63.6% (21/33) of the scenarios were attributed to 'poor quality of collaboration', 42.4% (14/33) to 'poor leadership' and 48.5% (16/33) to a 'lack of coordination'. A total of 16 scenarios were classified as high risk and 17 scenarios were classified as medium risk. Significantly more of the high-risk scenarios were associated with a 'lack of a shared mental model' (62.5%, 10/16) and 'poor communication' (50.0%, 8/16) than the medium-risk scenarios (17.6%, 3/17 and 11.8%, 2/17, respectively). Poor teamwork between junior doctors and nurses is common and places patients at considerable risk. Addressing this problem requires a well-designed complex intervention to develop the team skills of doctors and nurses and foster a clinical environment in which teamwork is supported. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

Core Competencies for Medical Teachers (KLM)--A Position Paper of the GMA Committee on Personal and Organizational Development in Teaching.

PubMed

Görlitz, Anja; Ebert, Thomas; Bauer, Daniel; Grasl, Matthäus; Hofer, Matthias; Lammerding-Köppel, Maria; Fabry, Götz

2015-01-01

Recent developments in medical education have created increasing challenges for medical teachers which is why the majority of German medical schools already offer educational and instructional skills trainings for their teaching staff. However, to date no framework for educational core competencies for medical teachers exists that might serve as guidance for the qualification of the teaching faculty. Against the background of the discussion about competency based medical education and based upon the international literature, the GMA Committee for Faculty and Organizational Development in Teaching developed a model of core teaching competencies for medical teachers. This framework is designed not only to provide guidance with regard to individual qualification profiles but also to support further advancement of the content, training formats and evaluation of faculty development initiatives and thus, to establish uniform quality criteria for such initiatives in German-speaking medical schools. The model comprises a framework of six competency fields, subdivided into competency components and learning objectives. Additional examples of their use in medical teaching scenarios illustrate and clarify each specific teaching competency. The model has been designed for routine application in medical schools and is thought to be complemented consecutively by additional competencies for teachers with special duties and responsibilities in a future step.

RELAP-7 Software Verification and Validation Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis L.; Choi, Yong-Joon; Zou, Ling

This INL plan comprehensively describes the software for RELAP-7 and documents the software, interface, and software design requirements for the application. The plan also describes the testing-based software verification and validation (SV&V) process—a set of specially designed software models used to test RELAP-7. The RELAP-7 (Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program) code is a nuclear reactor system safety analysis code being developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The code is based on the INL’s modern scientific software development framework – MOOSE (Multi-Physics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment). The overall design goal of RELAP-7 is to take advantage of the previous thirty yearsmore » of advancements in computer architecture, software design, numerical integration methods, and physical models. The end result will be a reactor systems analysis capability that retains and improves upon RELAP5’s capability and extends the analysis capability for all reactor system simulation scenarios.« less

Untangling Consequential Futures: Discovering Self-Consistent Regional and Global Multi-Sector Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamontagne, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

Impacts and adaptations to global change largely occur at regional scales, yet they are shaped globally through the interdependent evolution of the climate, energy, agriculture, and industrial systems. It is important for regional actors to account for the impacts of global changes on their systems in a globally consistent but regionally relevant way. This can be challenging because emerging global reference scenarios may not reflect regional challenges. Likewise, regionally specific scenarios may miss important global feedbacks. In this work, we contribute a scenario discovery framework to identify regionally-specific decision relevant scenarios from an ensemble of scenarios of global change. To this end, we generated a large ensemble of time evolving regional, multi-sector global change scenarios by a full factorial sampling of the underlying assumptions in the emerging shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Statistical and visual analytics were then used to discover which SSP assumptions are particularly consequential for various regions, considering a broad range of time-evolving metrics that encompass multiple spatial scales and sectors. In an illustrative examples, we identify the most important global change narratives to inform water resource scenarios for several geographic regions using the proposed scenario discovery framework. Our results highlight the importance of demographic and agricultural evolution compared to technical improvements in the energy sector. We show that narrowly sampling a few canonical reference scenarios provides a very narrow view of the consequence space, increasing the risk of tacitly ignoring major impacts. Even optimistic scenarios contain unintended, disproportionate regional impacts and intergenerational transfers of consequence. Formulating consequential scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures requires a better exploration of which quantitative measures of consequences are important, for whom are they important, where, and when. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support `backwards' scenario generation techniques, that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

Sequential Inverse Problems Bayesian Principles and the Logistic Map Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Lian; Farmer, Chris L.; Moroz, Irene M.

2010-09-01

Bayesian statistics provides a general framework for solving inverse problems, but is not without interpretation and implementation problems. This paper discusses difficulties arising from the fact that forward models are always in error to some extent. Using a simple example based on the one-dimensional logistic map, we argue that, when implementation problems are minimal, the Bayesian framework is quite adequate. In this paper the Bayesian Filter is shown to be able to recover excellent state estimates in the perfect model scenario (PMS) and to distinguish the PMS from the imperfect model scenario (IMS). Through a quantitative comparison of the way in which the observations are assimilated in both the PMS and the IMS scenarios, we suggest that one can, sometimes, measure the degree of imperfection.

Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century

DOE PAGES

Fabre, Julie; Ruelland, Denis; Dezetter, Alain; ...

2016-08-02

This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscale river basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes to determining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessment grounded in real-world water management issues, with water management scenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore, we present an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals and present the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furthering the significance of our study for water management. A modeling framework integrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand was applied in two basinsmore » of different scales and with contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km 2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km 2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic, socioeconomic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited. Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied under different combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21st to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthly environmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in both basins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses more than once every 5 years. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water shortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and the pressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. Furthermore, the causes of unsustainability vary across sub-basins and scenarios, and in most areas results are highly dependent on the climate change scenario.« less

Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fabre, Julie; Ruelland, Denis; Dezetter, Alain

This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscale river basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes to determining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessment grounded in real-world water management issues, with water management scenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore, we present an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals and present the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furthering the significance of our study for water management. A modeling framework integrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand was applied in two basinsmore » of different scales and with contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km 2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km 2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic, socioeconomic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited. Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied under different combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21st to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthly environmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in both basins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses more than once every 5 years. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water shortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and the pressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. Furthermore, the causes of unsustainability vary across sub-basins and scenarios, and in most areas results are highly dependent on the climate change scenario.« less

Optimal digital dynamical decoupling for general decoherence via Walsh modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Haoyu; Dowling, Jonathan P.; Viola, Lorenza

2017-11-01

We provide a general framework for constructing digital dynamical decoupling sequences based on Walsh modulation—applicable to arbitrary qubit decoherence scenarios. By establishing equivalence between decoupling design based on Walsh functions and on concatenated projections, we identify a family of optimal Walsh sequences, which can be exponentially more efficient, in terms of the required total pulse number, for fixed cancellation order, than known digital sequences based on concatenated design. Optimal sequences for a given cancellation order are highly non-unique—their performance depending sensitively on the control path. We provide an analytic upper bound to the achievable decoupling error and show how sequences within the optimal Walsh family can substantially outperform concatenated decoupling in principle, while respecting realistic timing constraints.

Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

2016-04-01

It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more vulnerable countries in the global south. We will discuss how this framework can be implemented for large urban agglomerations. To do so, we will examine: (i) by what means globally-developed SSPs can be extended into sector-specific and location-specific socio-economic development scenarios, (ii) in what manner the quantification of key socio-economic indicators (in accordance with the different SSPs), coupled with regional climate projections under different RCPs, can lead to a quantitative and reliable assessment of the evolution of future social vulnerability, and (iii) to which extent the SMA, i.e. the combination of extended SSPs, regional climate projections (under different RCPs) and various locally-developed SPAs, can answer some of the key questions regarding climate change adaptation policies, from a vulnerability perspective.

A GIS based watershed information system for water resources management and planning in semi-arid areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzabiras, John; Spiliotopoulos, Marios; Kokkinos, Kostantinos; Fafoutis, Chrysostomos; Sidiropoulos, Pantelis; Vasiliades, Lampros; Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Mylopoulos, Nikitas

2015-04-01

The overall objective of this work is the development of an Information System which could be used by stakeholders for the purposes of water management as well as for planning and strategic decision-making in semi-arid areas. An integrated modeling system has been developed and applied to evaluate the sustainability of water resources management strategies in Lake Karla watershed, Greece. The modeling system, developed in the framework of "HYDROMENTOR" research project, is based on a GIS modelling approach which uses remote sensing data and includes coupled models for the simulation of surface water and groundwater resources, the operation of hydrotechnical projects (reservoir operation and irrigation works) and the estimation of water demands at several spatial scales. Lake Karla basin was the region where the system was tested but the methodology may be the basis for future analysis elsewhere. Τwo (2) base and three (3) management scenarios were investigated. In total, eight (8) water management scenarios were evaluated: i) Base scenario without operation of the reservoir and the designed Lake Karla district irrigation network (actual situation) • Reduction of channel losses • Alteration of irrigation methods • Introduction of greenhouse cultivation ii) Base scenario including the operation of the reservoir and the Lake Karla district irrigation network • Reduction of channel losses • Alteration of irrigation methods • Introduction of greenhouse cultivation The results show that, under the existing water resources management, the water deficit of Lake Karla watershed is very large. However, the operation of the reservoir and the cooperative Lake Karla district irrigation network coupled with water demand management measures, like reduction of water distribution system losses and alteration of irrigation methods, could alleviate the problem and lead to sustainable and ecological use of water resources in the study area. Acknowledgements: This study has been supported by the research project "Hydromentor" funded by the Greek General Secretariat of Research and Technology in the framework of the E.U. co-funded National Action "Cooperation"

Cosmological singularity resolution from quantum gravity: The emergent-bouncing universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alesci, Emanuele; Botta, Gioele; Cianfrani, Francesco; Liberati, Stefano

2017-08-01

Alternative scenarios to the big bang singularity have been subject of intense research for several decades by now. Most popular in this sense have been frameworks were such singularity is replaced by a bounce around some minimal cosmological volume or by some early quantum phase. This latter scenario was devised a long time ago and referred as an "emergent universe" (in the sense that our universe emerged from a constant volume quantum phase). We show here that within an improved framework of canonical quantum gravity (the so-called quantum reduced loop gravity) the Friedmann equations for cosmology are modified in such a way to replace the big bang singularity with a short bounce preceded by a metastable quantum phase in which the volume of the universe oscillates between a series of local maxima and minima. We call this hybrid scenario an "emergent-bouncing universe" since after a pure oscillating quantum phase the classical Friedmann spacetime emerges. Perspective developments and possible tests of this scenario are discussed in the end.

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs)

Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

PubMed

Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

2016-01-01

Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a Flexible Framework of Common Hypersonic Navier-Strokes Meshes for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alter, Stephen J.; Reuthler, James J.; McDaniel, Ryan D.

2003-01-01

A flexible framework for the development of block structured volume grids for hypersonic Navier-Stokes flow simulations was developed for analysis of the Shuttle Orbiter Columbia. The development of the flexible framework, resulted in an ability to quickly generate meshes to directly correlate solutions contributed by participating groups on a common surface mesh, providing confidence for the extension of the envelope of solutions and damage scenarios. The framework draws on the experience of NASA Langely and NASA Ames Research Centers in structured grid generation, and consists of a grid generation process that is implemented through a division of responsibilities. The nominal division of labor consisted of NASA Johnson Space Center coordinating the damage scenarios to be analyzed by the Aerothermodynamics Columbia Accident Investigation (CAI) team, Ames developing the surface grids that described the computational volume about the orbiter, and Langely improving grid quality of Ames generated data and constructing the final volume grids. Distributing the work among the participants in the Aerothermodynamic CIA team resulted in significantly less time required to construct complete meshes than possible by any individual participant. The approach demonstrated that the One-NASA grid generation team could sustain the demand for new meshes to explore new damage scenarios within a aggressive timeline.

Involving Users to Improve the Collaborative Logical Framework

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

In order to support collaboration in web-based learning, there is a need for an intelligent support that facilitates its management during the design, development, and analysis of the collaborative learning experience and supports both students and instructors. At aDeNu research group we have proposed the Collaborative Logical Framework (CLF) to create effective scenarios that support learning through interaction, exploration, discussion, and collaborative knowledge construction. This approach draws on artificial intelligence techniques to support and foster an effective involvement of students to collaborate. At the same time, the instructors' workload is reduced as some of their tasks—especially those related to the monitoring of the students behavior—are automated. After introducing the CLF approach, in this paper, we present two formative evaluations with users carried out to improve the design of this collaborative tool and thus enrich the personalized support provided. In the first one, we analyze, following the layered evaluation approach, the results of an observational study with 56 participants. In the second one, we tested the infrastructure to gather emotional data when carrying out another observational study with 17 participants. PMID:24592196

The Design of Collectives of Agents to Control Non-Markovian Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawson, John W.; Wolpert, David H.

2004-01-01

The Collective Intelligence (COIN) framework concerns the design of collectives of reinforcement-learning agents such that their interaction causes a provided "world" utility function concerning the entire collective to be maximized. Previously, we applied that framework to scenarios involving Markovian dynamics where no re-evolution of the system from counter-factual initial conditions (an often expensive calculation) is permitted. This approach sets the individual utility function of each agent to be both aligned with the world utility, and at the same time, easy for the associated agents to optimize. Here we extend that approach to systems involving non-Markovian dynamics. In computer simulations, we compare our techniques with each other and with conventional "team games". We show whereas in team games performance often degrades badly with time, it steadily improves when our techniques are used. We also investigate situations where the system's dimensionality is effectively reduced. We show that this leads to difficulties in the agents ability to learn. The implication is that learning is a property only of high-enough dimensional systems.

The Design of Collectives of Agents to Control Non-Markovian Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawson, John W.; Wolpert, David H.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The 'Collective Intelligence' (COIN) framework concerns the design of collectives of reinforcement-learning agents such that their interaction causes a provided 'world' utility function concerning the entire collective to be maximized. Previously, we applied that framework to scenarios involving Markovian dynamics where no re-evolution of the system from counter-factual initial conditions (an often expensive calculation) is permitted. This approach sets the individual utility function of each agent to be both aligned with the world utility, and at the same time, easy for the associated agents to optimize. Here we extend that approach to systems involving non-Markovian dynamics. In computer simulations, we compare our techniques with each other and with conventional-'team games'. We show whereas in team games performance often degrades badly with time, it steadily improves when our techniques are used. We also investigate situations where the system's dimensionality is effectively reduced. We show that this leads to difficulties in the agents' ability to learn. The implication is that 'learning' is a property only of high-enough dimensional systems.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Kandler; Shi, Ying; Santhanagopalan, Shriram

Predictive models of Li-ion battery lifetime must consider a multiplicity of electrochemical, thermal, and mechanical degradation modes experienced by batteries in application environments. To complicate matters, Li-ion batteries can experience different degradation trajectories that depend on storage and cycling history of the application environment. Rates of degradation are controlled by factors such as temperature history, electrochemical operating window, and charge/discharge rate. We present a generalized battery life prognostic model framework for battery systems design and control. The model framework consists of trial functions that are statistically regressed to Li-ion cell life datasets wherein the cells have been aged under differentmore » levels of stress. Degradation mechanisms and rate laws dependent on temperature, storage, and cycling condition are regressed to the data, with multiple model hypotheses evaluated and the best model down-selected based on statistics. The resulting life prognostic model, implemented in state variable form, is extensible to arbitrary real-world scenarios. The model is applicable in real-time control algorithms to maximize battery life and performance. We discuss efforts to reduce lifetime prediction error and accommodate its inevitable impact in controller design.« less

Optimization of storage tank locations in an urban stormwater drainage system using a two-stage approach.

PubMed

Wang, Mingming; Sun, Yuanxiang; Sweetapple, Chris

2017-12-15

Storage is important for flood mitigation and non-point source pollution control. However, to seek a cost-effective design scheme for storage tanks is very complex. This paper presents a two-stage optimization framework to find an optimal scheme for storage tanks using storm water management model (SWMM). The objectives are to minimize flooding, total suspended solids (TSS) load and storage cost. The framework includes two modules: (i) the analytical module, which evaluates and ranks the flooding nodes with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) using two indicators (flood depth and flood duration), and then obtains the preliminary scheme by calculating two efficiency indicators (flood reduction efficiency and TSS reduction efficiency); (ii) the iteration module, which obtains an optimal scheme using a generalized pattern search (GPS) method based on the preliminary scheme generated by the analytical module. The proposed approach was applied to a catchment in CZ city, China, to test its capability in choosing design alternatives. Different rainfall scenarios are considered to test its robustness. The results demonstrate that the optimal framework is feasible, and the optimization is fast based on the preliminary scheme. The optimized scheme is better than the preliminary scheme for reducing runoff and pollutant loads under a given storage cost. The multi-objective optimization framework presented in this paper may be useful in finding the best scheme of storage tanks or low impact development (LID) controls. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nemesis Autonomous Test System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barltrop, Kevin J.; Lee, Cin-Young; Horvath, Gregory A,; Clement, Bradley J.

2012-01-01

A generalized framework has been developed for systems validation that can be applied to both traditional and autonomous systems. The framework consists of an automated test case generation and execution system called Nemesis that rapidly and thoroughly identifies flaws or vulnerabilities within a system. By applying genetic optimization and goal-seeking algorithms on the test equipment side, a "war game" is conducted between a system and its complementary nemesis. The end result of the war games is a collection of scenarios that reveals any undesirable behaviors of the system under test. The software provides a reusable framework to evolve test scenarios using genetic algorithms using an operation model of the system under test. It can automatically generate and execute test cases that reveal flaws in behaviorally complex systems. Genetic algorithms focus the exploration of tests on the set of test cases that most effectively reveals the flaws and vulnerabilities of the system under test. It leverages advances in state- and model-based engineering, which are essential in defining the behavior of autonomous systems. It also uses goal networks to describe test scenarios.

A flexible geospatial sensor observation service for diverse sensor data based on Web service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Nengcheng; Di, Liping; Yu, Genong; Min, Min

Achieving a flexible and efficient geospatial Sensor Observation Service (SOS) is difficult, given the diversity of sensor networks, the heterogeneity of sensor data storage, and the differing requirements of users. This paper describes development of a service-oriented multi-purpose SOS framework. The goal is to create a single method of access to the data by integrating the sensor observation service with other Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) services — Catalogue Service for the Web (CSW), Transactional Web Feature Service (WFS-T) and Transactional Web Coverage Service (WCS-T). The framework includes an extensible sensor data adapter, an OGC-compliant geospatial SOS, a geospatial catalogue service, a WFS-T, and a WCS-T for the SOS, and a geospatial sensor client. The extensible sensor data adapter finds, stores, and manages sensor data from live sensors, sensor models, and simulation systems. Abstract factory design patterns are used during design and implementation. A sensor observation service compatible with the SWE is designed, following the OGC "core" and "transaction" specifications. It is implemented using Java servlet technology. It can be easily deployed in any Java servlet container and automatically exposed for discovery using Web Service Description Language (WSDL). Interaction sequences between a Sensor Web data consumer and an SOS, between a producer and an SOS, and between an SOS and a CSW are described in detail. The framework has been successfully demonstrated in application scenarios for EO-1 observations, weather observations, and water height gauge observations.

Methodological framework for projecting the potential loss of intraspecific genetic diversity due to global climate change

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background While research on the impact of global climate change (GCC) on ecosystems and species is flourishing, a fundamental component of biodiversity – molecular variation – has not yet received its due attention in such studies. Here we present a methodological framework for projecting the loss of intraspecific genetic diversity due to GCC. Methods The framework consists of multiple steps that combines 1) hierarchical genetic clustering methods to define comparable units of inference, 2) species accumulation curves (SAC) to infer sampling completeness, and 3) species distribution modelling (SDM) to project the genetic diversity loss under GCC. We suggest procedures for existing data sets as well as specifically designed studies. We illustrate the approach with two worked examples from a land snail (Trochulus villosus) and a caddisfly (Smicridea (S.) mucronata). Results Sampling completeness was diagnosed on the third coarsest haplotype clade level for T. villosus and the second coarsest for S. mucronata. For both species, a substantial species range loss was projected under the chosen climate scenario. However, despite substantial differences in data set quality concerning spatial sampling and sampling depth, no loss of haplotype clades due to GCC was predicted for either species. Conclusions The suggested approach presents a feasible method to tap the rich resources of existing phylogeographic data sets and guide the design and analysis of studies explicitly designed to estimate the impact of GCC on a currently still neglected level of biodiversity. PMID:23176586

An Integrated Framework for Modeling Air Carrier Behavior, Policy, and Impacts in the U.S. Air Transportation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horio, Brant M.; Kumar, Vivek; DeCicco, Anthony H.; Hasan, Shahab; Stouffer, Virginia L.; Smith, Jeremy C.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.

2015-01-01

The implementation of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in the United States is an ongoing challenge for policymakers due to the complexity of the air transportation system (ATS) with its broad array of stakeholders and dynamic interdependencies between them. The successful implementation of NextGen has a hard dependency on the active participation of U.S. commercial airlines. To assist policymakers in identifying potential policy designs that facilitate the implementation of NextGen, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and LMI developed a research framework called the Air Transportation System Evolutionary Simulation (ATS-EVOS). This framework integrates large empirical data sets with multiple specialized models to simulate the evolution of the airline response to potential future policies and explore consequential impacts on ATS performance and market dynamics. In the ATS-EVOS configuration presented here, we leverage the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), the Airline Evolutionary Simulation (AIRLINE-EVOS), the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES), and the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), all of which enable this research to comprehensively represent the complex facets of the ATS and its participants. We validated this baseline configuration of ATS-EVOS against Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) data and subject matter expert opinion, and we verified the ATS-EVOS framework and agent behavior logic through scenario-based experiments that explored potential implementations of a carbon tax, congestion pricing policy, and the dynamics for equipage of new technology by airlines. These experiments demonstrated ATS-EVOS's capabilities in responding to a wide range of potential NextGen-related policies and utility for decision makers to gain insights for effective policy design.

Groundwater modelling as a tool for the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) application: The Llobregat case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vázquez-Suñé, E.; Abarca, E.; Carrera, J.; Capino, B.; Gámez, D.; Pool, M.; Simó, T.; Batlle, F.; Niñerola, J. M.; Ibáñez, X.

The European Water Framework Directive establishes the basis for Community action in the field of water policy. Water authorities in Catalonia, together with users are designing a management program to improve groundwater status and to assess the impact of infrastructures and city-planning activities on the aquifers and their associated natural systems. The objective is to describe the role of groundwater modelling in addressing the issues raised by the Water Framework Directive, and its application to the Llobregat Delta, Barcelona, Spain. In this case modelling was used to address Water Framework Directive in the following: (1) Characterisation of aquifers and the status of groundwater by integration of existing knowledge and new hydrogeological information. Inverse modelling allowed us to reach an accurate description of the paths and mechanisms for the evolution of seawater intrusion. (2) Quantification of groundwater budget (mass balance). This is especially relevant for those terms that are difficult to asses, such as recharge from river infiltration during floods, which we have found to be very important. (3) Evaluation of groundwater-related environmental needs in aquatic ecosystems. The model allows quantifying groundwater input under natural conditions, which can be used as a reference level for stressed conditions. (4) Evaluation of possible impacts of territory planning (Llobregat river course modification, new railway tunnels, airport and docks enlargement, etc.). (5) Definition of management areas. (6) The assessment of possible future scenarios combined with optimization processes to quantify sustainable pumping rates and design measures to control seawater intrusion. The resulting model has been coupled to a user-friendly interface to allow water managers to design and address corrective measures in an agile and effective way.

LIBVERSIONINGCOMPILER: An easy-to-use library for dynamic generation and invocation of multiple code versions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherubin, S.; Agosta, G.

2018-01-01

We present LIBVERSIONINGCOMPILER, a C++ library designed to support the dynamic generation of multiple versions of the same compute kernel in a HPC scenario. It can be used to provide continuous optimization, code specialization based on the input data or on workload changes, or otherwise to dynamically adjust the application, without the burden of a full dynamic compiler. The library supports multiple underlying compilers but specifically targets the LLVM framework. We also provide examples of use, showing the overhead of the library, and providing guidelines for its efficient use.

Towards an analytical framework for tailoring supercontinuum generation.

PubMed

Castelló-Lurbe, David; Vermeulen, Nathalie; Silvestre, Enrique

2016-11-14

A fully analytical toolbox for supercontinuum generation relying on scenarios without pulse splitting is presented. Furthermore, starting from the new insights provided by this formalism about the physical nature of direct and cascaded dispersive wave emission, a unified description of this radiation in both normal and anomalous dispersion regimes is derived. Previously unidentified physics of broadband spectra reported in earlier works is successfully explained on this basis. Finally, a foundry-compatible few-millimeters-long silicon waveguide allowing octave-spanning supercontinuum generation pumped at telecom wavelengths in the normal dispersion regime is designed, hence showcasing the potential of this new analytical approach.

Uncertainties propagation and global sensitivity analysis of the frequency response function of piezoelectric energy harvesters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz, Rafael O.; Meruane, Viviana

2017-06-01

The goal of this work is to describe a framework to propagate uncertainties in piezoelectric energy harvesters (PEHs). These uncertainties are related to the incomplete knowledge of the model parameters. The framework presented could be employed to conduct prior robust stochastic predictions. The prior analysis assumes a known probability density function for the uncertain variables and propagates the uncertainties to the output voltage. The framework is particularized to evaluate the behavior of the frequency response functions (FRFs) in PEHs, while its implementation is illustrated by the use of different unimorph and bimorph PEHs subjected to different scenarios: free of uncertainties, common uncertainties, and uncertainties as a product of imperfect clamping. The common variability associated with the PEH parameters are tabulated and reported. A global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the Sobol indices. Results indicate that the elastic modulus, density, and thickness of the piezoelectric layer are the most relevant parameters of the output variability. The importance of including the model parameter uncertainties in the estimation of the FRFs is revealed. In this sense, the present framework constitutes a powerful tool in the robust design and prediction of PEH performance.

Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

PubMed

Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

2016-09-01

In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How system designers think: a study of design thinking in human factors engineering.

PubMed

Papantonopoulos, Sotiris

2004-11-01

The paper presents a descriptive study of design thinking in human factors engineering. The objective of the study is to analyse the role of interpretation in design thinking and the role of design practice in guiding interpretation. The study involved 10 system designers undertaking the allocation of cognitive functions in three production planning and control task scenarios. Allocation decisions were recorded and verbal protocols of the design process were collected to elicit the subjects' thought processes. Verbal protocol analysis showed that subjects carried out the design of cognitive task allocation as a problem of applying a selected automation technology from their initial design deliberations. This design strategy stands in contrast to the predominant view of system design that stipulates that user requirements should be thoroughly analysed prior to making any decisions about technology. Theoretical frameworks from design research and ontological design showed that the system design process may be better understood by recognizing the role of design hypotheses in system design, as well as the diverse interactions between interpretation and practice, means and ends, and design practice and the designer's pre-understanding which shape the design process. Ways to balance the bias exerted on the design process were discussed.

Scenario-based design: A method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management

PubMed Central

Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

2011-01-01

Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Methods: Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Results: Interview analysis identified twenty-five information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create twenty-five scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. Conclusion: The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. PMID:21807120

Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J; Newes, Emily K

2017-12-05

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, andmore » provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.« less

Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J; Newes, Emily K

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, andmore » provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.« less

Permutation inference for the general linear model

PubMed Central

Winkler, Anderson M.; Ridgway, Gerard R.; Webster, Matthew A.; Smith, Stephen M.; Nichols, Thomas E.

2014-01-01

Permutation methods can provide exact control of false positives and allow the use of non-standard statistics, making only weak assumptions about the data. With the availability of fast and inexpensive computing, their main limitation would be some lack of flexibility to work with arbitrary experimental designs. In this paper we report on results on approximate permutation methods that are more flexible with respect to the experimental design and nuisance variables, and conduct detailed simulations to identify the best method for settings that are typical for imaging research scenarios. We present a generic framework for permutation inference for complex general linear models (glms) when the errors are exchangeable and/or have a symmetric distribution, and show that, even in the presence of nuisance effects, these permutation inferences are powerful while providing excellent control of false positives in a wide range of common and relevant imaging research scenarios. We also demonstrate how the inference on glm parameters, originally intended for independent data, can be used in certain special but useful cases in which independence is violated. Detailed examples of common neuroimaging applications are provided, as well as a complete algorithm – the “randomise” algorithm – for permutation inference with the glm. PMID:24530839

Policy tree optimization for adaptive management of water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Jonathan; Giuliani, Matteo

2017-04-01

Water resources systems must cope with irreducible uncertainty in supply and demand, requiring policy alternatives capable of adapting to a range of possible future scenarios. Recent studies have developed adaptive policies based on "signposts" or "tipping points" that suggest the need of updating the policy. However, there remains a need for a general method to optimize the choice of the signposts to be used and their threshold values. This work contributes a general framework and computational algorithm to design adaptive policies as a tree structure (i.e., a hierarchical set of logical rules) using a simulation-optimization approach based on genetic programming. Given a set of feature variables (e.g., reservoir level, inflow observations, inflow forecasts), the resulting policy defines both the optimal reservoir operations and the conditions under which such operations should be triggered. We demonstrate the approach using Folsom Reservoir (California) as a case study, in which operating policies must balance the risk of both floods and droughts. Numerical results show that the tree-based policies outperform the ones designed via Dynamic Programming. In addition, they display good adaptive capacity to the changing climate, successfully adapting the reservoir operations across a large set of uncertain climate scenarios.

Exploring the practicing-connections hypothesis: using gesture to support coordination of ideas in understanding a complex statistical concept.

PubMed

Son, Ji Y; Ramos, Priscilla; DeWolf, Melissa; Loftus, William; Stigler, James W

2018-01-01

In this article, we begin to lay out a framework and approach for studying how students come to understand complex concepts in rich domains. Grounded in theories of embodied cognition, we advance the view that understanding of complex concepts requires students to practice, over time, the coordination of multiple concepts, and the connection of this system of concepts to situations in the world. Specifically, we explore the role that a teacher's gesture might play in supporting students' coordination of two concepts central to understanding in the domain of statistics: mean and standard deviation. In Study 1 we show that university students who have just taken a statistics course nevertheless have difficulty taking both mean and standard deviation into account when thinking about a statistical scenario. In Study 2 we show that presenting the same scenario with an accompanying gesture to represent variation significantly impacts students' interpretation of the scenario. Finally, in Study 3 we present evidence that instructional videos on the internet fail to leverage gesture as a means of facilitating understanding of complex concepts. Taken together, these studies illustrate an approach to translating current theories of cognition into principles that can guide instructional design.

Participatory Design of an Integrated Information System Design to Support Public Health Nurses and Nurse Managers

PubMed Central

Reeder, Blaine; Hills, Rebecca A.; Turner, Anne M.; Demiris, George

2014-01-01

Objectives The objectives of the study were to use persona-driven and scenario-based design methods to create a conceptual information system design to support public health nursing. Design and Sample We enrolled 19 participants from two local health departments to conduct an information needs assessment, create a conceptual design, and conduct a preliminary design validation. Measures Interviews and thematic analysis were used to characterize information needs and solicit design recommendations from participants. Personas were constructed from participant background information, and scenario-based design was used to create a conceptual information system design. Two focus groups were conducted as a first iteration validation of information needs, personas, and scenarios. Results Eighty-nine information needs were identified. Two personas and 89 scenarios were created. Public health nurses and nurse managers confirmed the accuracy of information needs, personas, scenarios, and the perceived usefulness of proposed features of the conceptual design. Design artifacts were modified based on focus group results. Conclusion Persona-driven design and scenario-based design are feasible methods to design for common work activities in different local health departments. Public health nurses and nurse managers should be engaged in the design of systems that support their work. PMID:24117760

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng

2017-01-01

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchicalmore » clustering approach.« less

A framework for considering climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : lessons learned from an interagency pilot project on Cape Cod.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-07-01

The Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Pilot Project utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multi-agency transportation- and land use-focused development strategy for Cape Cod, Massachusetts, with the intention of ach...

Interoperable Open-Source Sensor-Net Frameworks with Sensor-Package Workbench Capabilities: Motivation, Survey of Resources, and Exploratory Results

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

Military Scenario Definition Language (MSDL) for Nontraditional Warfare Scenarios," Paper 09S- SIW -001, Proceedings of the Spring Simulation...Update to the M&S Community," Paper 09S- SIW -002, Proceedings of the Spring Simulation Interoperability Workshop, Simulation Interoperability...Multiple Simulations: An Application of the Military Scenario Definition Language (MSDL)," Paper 09S- SIW -003, Proc. of the Spring Simulation

SAFETY: an integrated clinical reasoning and reflection framework for undergraduate nursing students.

PubMed

Hicks Russell, Bedelia; Geist, Melissa J; House Maffett, Jenny

2013-01-01

Nurse educators can no longer focus on imparting to students knowledge that is merely factual and content specific. Activities that provide students with opportunities to apply concepts in real-world scenarios can be powerful tools. Nurse educators should take advantage of student-patient interactions to model clinical reasoning and allow students to practice complex decision making throughout the entire curriculum. In response to this change in nursing education, faculty in a pediatric course designed a reflective clinical reasoning activity based on the SAFETY template, which is derived from the National Council of State Boards of Nursing RN practice analysis. Students were able to prioritize key components of nursing care, as well as integrate practice issues such as delegation, Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act violations, and questioning the accuracy of orders. SAFETY is proposed as a framework for integration of content knowledge, clinical reasoning, and reflection on authentic professional nursing concerns. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

Adding Support to the ALMA Common Software for Real-Time Operations through the Usage of a POSIX-Compliant RTOS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobar, R. J.; von Brand, H.; Araya, M. A.; Juerges, T.

2010-12-01

The ALMA Common Software (ACS) framework lacks of the real-time capabilities to control the antennas’ instrumentation — as has been probed by previous works — which has lead to non-portable workarounds to the problem. Indeed, the time service used in ACS, based in the Container/Component model, presents plenty of results that confirm this statement. This work addresses the problem of design and integrate a real-time service for ACS, providing to the framework an implementation such that the control operations over the different instruments could be done within real-time constraints. This implementation is compared with the current time service, showing the difference between the two systems when subjecting them to common scenarios. Also, the new implementation is done following the POSIX specification, ensuring interoperability and portability through different operating systems.

Participatory design of an integrated information system design to support public health nurses and nurse managers.

PubMed

Reeder, Blaine; Hills, Rebecca A; Turner, Anne M; Demiris, George

2014-01-01

The objectives of the study were to use persona-driven and scenario-based design methods to create a conceptual information system design to support public health nursing. We enrolled 19 participants from two local health departments to conduct an information needs assessment, create a conceptual design, and conduct a preliminary design validation. Interviews and thematic analysis were used to characterize information needs and solicit design recommendations from participants. Personas were constructed from participant background information, and scenario-based design was used to create a conceptual information system design. Two focus groups were conducted as a first iteration validation of information needs, personas, and scenarios. Eighty-nine information needs were identified. Two personas and 89 scenarios were created. Public health nurses and nurse managers confirmed the accuracy of information needs, personas, scenarios, and the perceived usefulness of proposed features of the conceptual design. Design artifacts were modified based on focus group results. Persona-driven design and scenario-based design are feasible methods to design for common work activities in different local health departments. Public health nurses and nurse managers should be engaged in the design of systems that support their work. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An entropy-based analysis of lane changing behavior: An interactive approach.

PubMed

Kosun, Caglar; Ozdemir, Serhan

2017-05-19

As a novelty, this article proposes the nonadditive entropy framework for the description of driver behaviors during lane changing. The authors also state that this entropy framework governs the lane changing behavior in traffic flow in accordance with the long-range vehicular interactions and traffic safety. The nonadditive entropy framework is the new generalized theory of thermostatistical mechanics. Vehicular interactions during lane changing are considered within this framework. The interactive approach for the lane changing behavior of the drivers is presented in the traffic flow scenarios presented in the article. According to the traffic flow scenarios, 4 categories of traffic flow and driver behaviors are obtained. Through the scenarios, comparative analyses of nonadditive and additive entropy domains are also provided. Two quadrants of the categories belong to the nonadditive entropy; the rest are involved in the additive entropy domain. Driving behaviors are extracted and the scenarios depict that nonadditivity matches safe driving well, whereas additivity corresponds to unsafe driving. Furthermore, the cooperative traffic system is considered in nonadditivity where the long-range interactions are present. However, the uncooperative traffic system falls into the additivity domain. The analyses also state that there would be possible traffic flow transitions among the quadrants. This article shows that lane changing behavior could be generalized as nonadditive, with additivity as a special case, based on the given traffic conditions. The nearest and close neighbor models are well within the conventional additive entropy framework. In this article, both the long-range vehicular interactions and safe driving behavior in traffic are handled in the nonadditive entropy domain. It is also inferred that the Tsallis entropy region would correspond to mandatory lane changing behavior, whereas additive and either the extensive or nonextensive entropy region would match discretionary lane changing behavior. This article states that driver behaviors would be in the nonadditive entropy domain to provide a safe traffic stream and hence with vehicle accident prevention in mind.

A generic open-source software framework supporting scenario simulations in bioterrorist crises.

PubMed

Falenski, Alexander; Filter, Matthias; Thöns, Christian; Weiser, Armin A; Wigger, Jan-Frederik; Davis, Matthew; Douglas, Judith V; Edlund, Stefan; Hu, Kun; Kaufman, James H; Appel, Bernd; Käsbohrer, Annemarie

2013-09-01

Since the 2001 anthrax attack in the United States, awareness of threats originating from bioterrorism has grown. This led internationally to increased research efforts to improve knowledge of and approaches to protecting human and animal populations against the threat from such attacks. A collaborative effort in this context is the extension of the open-source Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) simulation and modeling software for agro- or bioterrorist crisis scenarios. STEM, originally designed to enable community-driven public health disease models and simulations, was extended with new features that enable integration of proprietary data as well as visualization of agent spread along supply and production chains. STEM now provides a fully developed open-source software infrastructure supporting critical modeling tasks such as ad hoc model generation, parameter estimation, simulation of scenario evolution, estimation of effects of mitigation or management measures, and documentation. This open-source software resource can be used free of charge. Additionally, STEM provides critical features like built-in worldwide data on administrative boundaries, transportation networks, or environmental conditions (eg, rainfall, temperature, elevation, vegetation). Users can easily combine their own confidential data with built-in public data to create customized models of desired resolution. STEM also supports collaborative and joint efforts in crisis situations by extended import and export functionalities. In this article we demonstrate specifically those new software features implemented to accomplish STEM application in agro- or bioterrorist crisis scenarios.

Analysis of managed aquifer recharge for retiming streamflow in an alluvial river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronayne, Michael J.; Roudebush, Jason A.; Stednick, John D.

2017-01-01

Maintenance of low flows during dry periods is critical for supporting ecosystem function in many rivers. Managed aquifer recharge is one method that can be used to augment low flows in rivers that are hydraulically connected to an alluvial groundwater system. In this study, we performed numerical modeling to evaluate a managed recharge operation designed to retime streamflow in the South Platte River, northeastern Colorado (USA). Modeling involved the simulation of spatially and temporally variable groundwater-surface water exchange, as well as streamflow routing in the river. Periodic solutions that incorporate seasonality were developed for two scenarios, a natural base case scenario and an active management scenario that included groundwater pumping and managed recharge. A framework was developed to compare the scenarios by analyzing changes in head-dependent inflows and outflows to/from the aquifer, which was used to interpret the simulated impacts on streamflow. The results clearly illustrate a retiming of streamflow. Groundwater pumping near the river during winter months causes a reduction in streamflow during those months. Delivery of the pumped water to recharge ponds, located further from the river, has the intended effect of augmenting streamflow during low-flow summer months. Higher streamflow is not limited to the target time period, however, which highlights an inefficiency of flow augmentation projects that rely on water retention in the subsurface.

Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the presentmore » day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios.Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario.« less

Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design

DOE PAGES

Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles; ...

2017-02-08

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the presentmore » day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios.Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario.« less

Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-20

solved by simply using the information provided by the scenario. Instead, additional knowledge is required from relevant fields that study these...resilience function by leveraging Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs), a probabilistic reasoning network framework[5],[6]. BKBs allow for inferencing...reasoning network framework based on Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs). BKBs are central to our social resilience framework as they are used to

Development of a Framework Based on Reflective MCDA to Support Patient-Clinician Shared Decision-Making: The Case of the Management of Gastroenteropancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors (GEP-NET) in the United States.

PubMed

Wagner, Monika; Samaha, Dima; Khoury, Hanane; O'Neil, William M; Lavoie, Louis; Bennetts, Liga; Badgley, Danielle; Gabriel, Sylvie; Berthon, Anthony; Dolan, James; Kulke, Matthew H; Goetghebeur, Mireille

2018-01-01

Well- or moderately differentiated gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NETs) are often slow-growing, and some patients with unresectable, asymptomatic, non-functioning tumors may face the choice between watchful waiting (WW), or somatostatin analogues (SSA) to delay progression. We developed a comprehensive multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to help patients and physicians clarify their values and preferences, consider each decision criterion, and support communication and shared decision-making. The framework was adapted from a generic MCDA framework (EVIDEM) with patient and clinician input. During a workshop, patients and clinicians expressed their individual values and preferences (criteria weights) and, on the basis of two scenarios (treatment vs WW; SSA-1 [lanreotide] vs SSA-2 [octreotide]) with evidence from a literature review, expressed how consideration of each criterion would impact their decision in favor of either option (score), and shared their knowledge and insights verbally and in writing. The framework included benefit-risk criteria and modulating factors, such as disease severity, quality of evidence, costs, and constraints. Overall and progression-free survival being most important, criteria weights ranged widely, highlighting variations in individual values and the need to share them. Scoring and considering each criterion prompted a rich exchange of perspectives and uncovered individual assumptions and interpretations. At the group level, type of benefit, disease severity, effectiveness, and quality of evidence favored treatment; cost aspects favored WW (scenario 1). For scenario 2, most criteria did not favor either option. Patients and clinicians consider many aspects in decision-making. The MCDA framework provided a common interpretive frame to structure this complexity, support individual reflection, and share perspectives. Ipsen Pharma.

Localized Symmetry Breaking for Tuning Thermal Expansion in ScF 3 Nanoscale Frameworks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Lei; Qin, Feiyu; Sanson, Andrea

The local symmetry, beyond the averaged crystallographic structure, tends to bring unu-sual performances. Negative thermal expansion is a peculiar physical property of solids. Here, we report the delicate design of the localized symmetry breaking to achieve the controllable thermal expansion in ScF3 nano-scale frameworks. Intriguingly, an isotropic zero thermal expansion is concurrently engi-neered by localized symmetry breaking, with a remarkably low coefficient of thermal expansion of about +4.0×10-8/K up to 675K. This mechanism is investigated by the joint analysis of atomic pair dis-tribution function of synchrotron X-ray total scattering and extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectra. A localized rhombohedral distortionmore » presumably plays a critical role in stiffening ScF3 nano-scale frameworks and concomitantly suppressing transverse thermal vibrations of fluorine atoms. This physical scenario is also theoretically corroborated by the extinction of phonon modes with negative Grüneisen parameters in the rhombohedral ScF3. The present work opens an untraditional chemical modification to achieve controllable thermal expansion by breaking local symmetries of materials.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Babun, Leonardo; Aksu, Hidayet; Uluagac, A. Selcuk

The core vision of the smart grid concept is the realization of reliable two-­way communications between smart devices (e.g., IEDs, PLCs, PMUs). The benefits of the smart grid also come with tremendous security risks and new challenges in protecting the smart grid systems from cyber threats. Particularly, the use of untrusted counterfeit smart grid devices represents a real problem. Consequences of propagating false or malicious data, as well as stealing valuable user or smart grid state information from counterfeit devices are costly. Hence, early detection of counterfeit devices is critical for protecting smart grid’s components and users. To address thesemore » concerns, in this poster, we introduce our initial design of a configurable framework that utilize system call tracing, library interposition, and statistical techniques for monitoring and detection of counterfeit smart grid devices. In our framework, we consider six different counterfeit device scenarios with different smart grid devices and adversarial seZings. Our initial results on a realistic testbed utilizing actual smart-­grid GOOSE messages with IEC-­61850 communication protocol are very promising. Our framework is showing excellent rates on detection of smart grid counterfeit devices from impostors.« less

LCA of greywater management within a water circular economy restorative thinking framework.

PubMed

Dominguez, Sara; Laso, Jara; Margallo, María; Aldaco, Rubén; Rivero, Maria J; Irabien, Ángel; Ortiz, Inmaculada

2018-04-15

Greywater reuse is an attractive option for the sustainable management of water under water scarcity circumstances, within a water circular economy restorative thinking framework. Its successful deployment relies on the availability of low cost and environmentally friendly technologies. The life cycle assessment (LCA) approach provides the appropriate methodological tool for the evaluation of alternative treatments based on environmental decision criteria and, therefore, it is highly useful during the process conceptual design. This methodology should be employed in the early design phase to select those technologies with lower environmental impact. This work reports the comparative LCA of three scenarios for greywater reuse: photocatalysis, photovoltaic solar-driven photocatalysis and membrane biological reactor, in order to help the selection of the most environmentally friendly technology. The study has been focused on the removal of the surfactant sodium dodecylbenzenesulfonate, which is used in the formulation of detergents and personal care products and, thus, widely present in greywater. LCA was applied using the Environmental Sustainability Assessment methodology to obtain two main environmental indicators in order to simplify the decision making process: natural resources and environmental burdens. Energy consumption is the main contributor to both indicators owing to the high energy consumption of the light source for the photocatalytic greywater treatment. In order to reduce its environmental burdens, the most desirable scenario would be the use of solar light for the photocatalytic transformation. However, while the technological challenge of direct use of solar light is approached, the environmental suitability of the photovoltaic solar energy driven photocatalysis technology to greywater reuse has been demonstrated, as it involves the smallest environmental impact among the three studied alternatives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Multi-criteria Decision Analysis System for Prioritizing Sites and Types of Low Impact Development Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jae Yeol; Chung, Eun-Sung

2017-04-01

This study developed a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to prioritize sites and types of low impact development (LID) practices. This framework was systemized as a web-based system coupled with the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Using the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), which is a type of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method, multiple types and sites of designated LID practices are prioritized. This system is named the Water Management Prioritization Module (WMPM) and is an improved version of the Water Management Analysis Module (WMAM) that automatically generates and simulates multiple scenarios of LID design and planning parameters for a single LID type. WMPM can simultaneously determine the priority of multiple LID types and sites. In this study, an infiltration trench and permeable pavement were considered for multiple sub-catchments in South Korea to demonstrate the WMPM procedures. The TOPSIS method was manually incorporated to select the vulnerable target sub-catchments and to prioritize the LID planning scenarios for multiple types and sites considering socio-economic, hydrologic and physical-geometric factors. In this application, the Delphi method and entropy theory were used to determine the subjective and objective weights, respectively. Comparing the ranks derived by this system, two sub-catchments, S16 and S4, out of 18 were considered to be the most suitable places for installing an infiltration trench and porous pavement to reduce the peak and total flow, respectively, considering both socio-economic factors and hydrological effectiveness. WMPM can help policy-makers to objectively develop urban water plans for sustainable development. Keywords: Low Impact Development, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, SWMM, TOPSIS, Water Management Prioritization Module (WMPM)

Outcomes of the JNT 1955 Phase I Viability Study of Gamma Emission Tomography for Spent Fuel Verification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobsson-Svard, Staffan; Smith, Leon E.; White, Timothy

The potential for gamma emission tomography (GET) to detect partial defects within a spent nuclear fuel assembly has been assessed within the IAEA Support Program project JNT 1955, phase I, which was completed and reported to the IAEA in October 2016. Two safeguards verification objectives were identified in the project; (1) independent determination of the number of active pins that are present in a measured assembly, in the absence of a priori information about the assembly; and (2) quantitative assessment of pin-by-pin properties, for example the activity of key isotopes or pin attributes such as cooling time and relative burnup,more » under the assumption that basic fuel parameters (e.g., assembly type and nominal fuel composition) are known. The efficacy of GET to meet these two verification objectives was evaluated across a range of fuel types, burnups and cooling times, while targeting a total interrogation time of less than 60 minutes. The evaluations were founded on a modelling and analysis framework applied to existing and emerging GET instrument designs. Monte Carlo models of different fuel types were used to produce simulated tomographer responses to large populations of “virtual” fuel assemblies. The simulated instrument response data were then processed using a variety of tomographic-reconstruction and image-processing methods, and scoring metrics were defined and used to evaluate the performance of the methods.This paper describes the analysis framework and metrics used to predict tomographer performance. It also presents the design of a “universal” GET (UGET) instrument intended to support the full range of verification scenarios envisioned by the IAEA. Finally, it gives examples of the expected partial-defect detection capabilities for some fuels and diversion scenarios, and it provides a comparison of predicted performance for the notional UGET design and an optimized variant of an existing IAEA instrument.« less

Scenario-based design: a method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management.

PubMed

Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

2011-12-01

Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Interview analysis identified 25 information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create 25 scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Electricity Market Manipulation: How Behavioral Modeling Can Help Market Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallo, Giulia

The question of how to best design electricity markets to integrate variable and uncertain renewable energy resources is becoming increasingly important as more renewable energy is added to electric power systems. Current markets were designed based on a set of assumptions that are not always valid in scenarios of high penetrations of renewables. In a future where renewables might have a larger impact on market mechanisms as well as financial outcomes, there is a need for modeling tools and power system modeling software that can provide policy makers and industry actors with more realistic representations of wholesale markets. One optionmore » includes using agent-based modeling frameworks. This paper discusses how key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach and how this approach may become a useful paradigm that researchers can employ when studying and planning for power systems of the future.« less

Requirements for plug and play information infrastructure frameworks and architectures to enable virtual enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolton, Richard W.; Dewey, Allen; Horstmann, Paul W.; Laurentiev, John

1997-01-01

This paper examines the role virtual enterprises will have in supporting future business engagements and resulting technology requirements. Two representative end-user scenarios are proposed that define the requirements for 'plug-and-play' information infrastructure frameworks and architectures necessary to enable 'virtual enterprises' in US manufacturing industries. The scenarios provide a high- level 'needs analysis' for identifying key technologies, defining a reference architecture, and developing compliant reference implementations. Virtual enterprises are short- term consortia or alliances of companies formed to address fast-changing opportunities. Members of a virtual enterprise carry out their tasks as if they all worked for a single organization under 'one roof', using 'plug-and-play' information infrastructure frameworks and architectures to access and manage all information needed to support the product cycle. 'Plug-and-play' information infrastructure frameworks and architectures are required to enhance collaboration between companies corking together on different aspects of a manufacturing process. This new form of collaborative computing will decrease cycle-time and increase responsiveness to change.

Development of a Flexible Framework for Hypersonic Navier-Stoke Space Shuttle Orbiter Meshes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alter, Stephen J.; Reuthler, James J.; McDaniel, Ryan D.

2004-01-01

A flexible framework constructing block structured volume grids for hypersonic Navier-Strokes flow simulations was developed for the analysis of the Shuttle Orbiter Columbia. The development of the framework, which was partially basedon the requirements of the primary flow solvers used resulted in an ability to directly correlate solutions contributed by participating groups on a common surface mesh. A foundation was built through the assessment of differences between differnt solvers, which provided confidence for independent assessment of other damage scenarios by team members. The framework draws on the experience of NASA Langley and NASA Ames Research Centers in structured grid generation, and consists of a grid generation, and consist of a grid generation process implemented through a division of responsibilities. The nominal division of labor consisted of NASA Johnson Space Center coordinating the damage scenarios to be analyzed by the Aerothermodynamics Columbia Accident Investigation (ACAI) team, Ames developing the surface grids that described the computational volume about the Orbiter, and Langley improving grid quality of Ames generated data and constructing the final computational volume grids. Distributing the work among the participant in th ACAI team resulted in significantl less time required to construct complete meshes than possible by any individual participant. The approach demonstrated that the One-NASA grid generation team could sustain the demand of for five new meshes to explore new damage scenarios within an aggressive time-line.

A Scalable Context-Aware Objective Function (SCAOF) of Routing Protocol for Agricultural Low-Power and Lossy Networks (RPAL).

PubMed

Chen, Yibo; Chanet, Jean-Pierre; Hou, Kun-Mean; Shi, Hongling; de Sousa, Gil

2015-08-10

In recent years, IoT (Internet of Things) technologies have seen great advances, particularly, the IPv6 Routing Protocol for Low-power and Lossy Networks (RPL), which provides a powerful and flexible routing framework that can be applied in a variety of application scenarios. In this context, as an important role of IoT, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) can utilize RPL to design efficient routing protocols for a specific application to increase the ubiquity of networks with resource-constrained WSN nodes that are low-cost and easy to deploy. In this article, our work starts with the description of Agricultural Low-power and Lossy Networks (A-LLNs) complying with the LLN framework, and to clarify the requirements of this application-oriented routing solution. After a brief review of existing optimization techniques for RPL, our contribution is dedicated to a Scalable Context-Aware Objective Function (SCAOF) that can adapt RPL to the environmental monitoring of A-LLNs, through combining energy-aware, reliability-aware, robustness-aware and resource-aware contexts according to the composite routing metrics approach. The correct behavior of this enhanced RPL version (RPAL) was verified by performance evaluations on both simulation and field tests. The obtained experimental results confirm that SCAOF can deliver the desired advantages on network lifetime extension, and high reliability and efficiency in different simulation scenarios and hardware testbeds.

A Scalable Context-Aware Objective Function (SCAOF) of Routing Protocol for Agricultural Low-Power and Lossy Networks (RPAL)

PubMed Central

Chen, Yibo; Chanet, Jean-Pierre; Hou, Kun-Mean; Shi, Hongling; de Sousa, Gil

2015-01-01

In recent years, IoT (Internet of Things) technologies have seen great advances, particularly, the IPv6 Routing Protocol for Low-power and Lossy Networks (RPL), which provides a powerful and flexible routing framework that can be applied in a variety of application scenarios. In this context, as an important role of IoT, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) can utilize RPL to design efficient routing protocols for a specific application to increase the ubiquity of networks with resource-constrained WSN nodes that are low-cost and easy to deploy. In this article, our work starts with the description of Agricultural Low-power and Lossy Networks (A-LLNs) complying with the LLN framework, and to clarify the requirements of this application-oriented routing solution. After a brief review of existing optimization techniques for RPL, our contribution is dedicated to a Scalable Context-Aware Objective Function (SCAOF) that can adapt RPL to the environmental monitoring of A-LLNs, through combining energy-aware, reliability-aware, robustness-aware and resource-aware contexts according to the composite routing metrics approach. The correct behavior of this enhanced RPL version (RPAL) was verified by performance evaluations on both simulation and field tests. The obtained experimental results confirm that SCAOF can deliver the desired advantages on network lifetime extension, and high reliability and efficiency in different simulation scenarios and hardware testbeds. PMID:26266411

The STEP database through the end-users eyes--USABILITY STUDY.

PubMed

Salunke, Smita; Tuleu, Catherine

2015-08-15

The user-designed database of Safety and Toxicity of Excipients for Paediatrics ("STEP") is created to address the shared need of drug development community to access the relevant information of excipients effortlessly. Usability testing was performed to validate if the database satisfies the need of the end-users. Evaluation framework was developed to assess the usability. The participants performed scenario based tasks and provided feedback and post-session usability ratings. Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) was performed to prioritize the problems and improvements to the STEP database design and functionalities. The study revealed several design vulnerabilities. Tasks such as limiting the results, running complex queries, location of data and registering to access the database were challenging. The three critical attributes identified to have impact on the usability of the STEP database included (1) content and presentation (2) the navigation and search features (3) potential end-users. Evaluation framework proved to be an effective method for evaluating database effectiveness and user satisfaction. This study provides strong initial support for the usability of the STEP database. Recommendations would be incorporated into the refinement of the database to improve its usability and increase user participation towards the advancement of the database. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Going DEEP: guidelines for building simulation-based team assessments.

PubMed

Grand, James A; Pearce, Marina; Rench, Tara A; Chao, Georgia T; Fernandez, Rosemarie; Kozlowski, Steve W J

2013-05-01

Whether for team training, research or evaluation, making effective use of simulation-based technologies requires robust, reliable and accurate assessment tools. Extant literature on simulation-based assessment practices has primarily focused on scenario and instructional design; however, relatively little direct guidance has been provided regarding the challenging decisions and fundamental principles related to assessment development and implementation. The objective of this manuscript is to introduce a generalisable assessment framework supplemented by specific guidance on how to construct and ensure valid and reliable simulation-based team assessment tools. The recommendations reflect best practices in assessment and are designed to empower healthcare educators, professionals and researchers with the knowledge to design and employ valid and reliable simulation-based team assessments. Information and actionable recommendations associated with creating assessments of team processes (non-technical 'teamwork' activities) and performance (demonstration of technical proficiency) are presented which provide direct guidance on how to Distinguish the underlying competencies one aims to assess, Elaborate the measures used to capture team member behaviours during simulation activities, Establish the content validity of these measures and Proceduralise the measurement tools in a way that is systematically aligned with the goals of the simulation activity while maintaining methodological rigour (DEEP). The DEEP framework targets fundamental principles and critical activities that are important for effective assessment, and should benefit healthcare educators, professionals and researchers seeking to design or enhance any simulation-based assessment effort.

Redundancy Maintenance and Garbage Collection Strategies in Peer-to-Peer Storage Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xin; Datta, Anwitaman

Maintaining redundancy in P2P storage systems is essential for reliability guarantees. Numerous P2P storage system maintenance algorithms have been proposed in the last years, each supposedly improving upon the previous approaches. We perform a systematic comparative study of the various strategies taking also into account the influence of different garbage collection mechanisms, an issue not studied so far. Our experiments show that while some strategies generally perform better than some others, there is no universally best strategy, and their relative superiority depends on various other design choices as well as the specific evaluation criterion. Our results can be used by P2P storage systems designers to make prudent design decisions, and our exploration of the various evaluation metrics also provides a more comprehensive framework to compare algorithms for P2P storage systems. While there are numerous network simulators specifically developed even to simulate peer-to-peer networks, there existed no P2P storage simulators - a byproduct of this work is a generic modular P2P storage system simulator which we provide as open-source. Different redundancy, maintenance, placement, garbage-collection policies, churn scenarios can be easily integrated to the simulator to try out new schemes in future, and provides a common framework to compare (future) p2p storage systems designs - something which has not been possible so far.

The Education Council Report 2001: An Evaluation Based on the ATEE-RDC19 Scenarios.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mikl, Josef

2003-01-01

Examines recent developments in European Union educational policy, highlighting a 2001 document of the Education Council. Evaluates the document's intentions and directions from a pedagogical viewpoint and assesses the document using the Association for Teacher Education in Europe's scenario framework. Shows that future European Union education…

Understanding Health Information Seeking: A Test of the Risk Perception Attitude Framework.

PubMed

Grasso, Katherine L; Bell, Robert A

2015-01-01

The authors used the Risk Perception Attitude framework, which is grounded in the Extended Parallel Process Model, to predict people's intentions to seek health information. In an online survey, 689 participants recruited from a crowdsource website were queried about their anticipated health information seeking, perceived risk, and efficacy in response to four scenarios pertaining to hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, alcohol dependence, and diabetes. Each participant was categorized for each scenario as responsive (higher risk, higher efficacy), avoidant (higher risk, lower efficacy), proactive (lower risk, higher efficacy), or indifferent (lower risk, lower efficacy). As predicted, responsive individuals were more likely to seek information than avoidant individuals, but only in three of the four scenarios. Also as expected, there was no difference between proactive and indifferent individuals' likelihood of seeking health information for any scenario. Risk and efficacy, while significant predictors of anticipated health information seeking, left much of the variance unexplained. An analysis of the reasons for information seeking and nonseeking among nonconforming cases suggests that a wider range of influences on health information seeking should be investigated, including curiosity, prior knowledge, social expectations, and situational norms.

ISECG Global Exploration Roadmap: A Stepwise Approach to Deep Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martinez, Roland; Goodliff, Kandyce; Whitley, Ryan

2013-01-01

In 2011, ISECG released the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER), advancing the "Global Exploration Strategy: The Framework for Coordination" by articulating the perspectives of participating agencies on exploration goals and objectives, mission scenarios, and coordination of exploration preparatory activities. The GER featured a stepwise development and demonstration of capabilities ultimately required for human exploration of Mars. In 2013 the GER was updated to reflect the ongoing evolution of agency's exploration policies and plans, informed by individual agency and coordinated analysis activities that are relevant to various elements of the GER framework as well as coordinated stakeholder engagement activities. For this release of version 2 of the GER in the mid 2013 timeframe, a modified mission scenario is presented, more firmly reflecting the importance of a stepwise evolution of critical capabilities provided by multiple partners necessary for executing increasingly complex missions to multiple destinations and leading to human exploration of Mars. This paper will describe the updated mission scenario, the changes since the release of version 1, the mission themes incorporated into the scenario, and risk reduction for Mars missions provided by exploration at various destinations.

Design tradeoffs in long-term research for stream salamanders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brand, Adrianne B,; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

Long-term research programs can benefit from early and periodic evaluation of their ability to meet stated objectives. In particular, consideration of the spatial allocation of effort is key. We sampled 4 species of stream salamanders intensively for 2 years (2010–2011) in the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, Maryland, USA to evaluate alternative distributions of sampling locations within stream networks, and then evaluated via simulation the ability of multiple survey designs to detect declines in occupancy and to estimate dynamic parameters (colonization, extinction) over 5 years for 2 species. We expected that fine-scale microhabitat variables (e.g., cobble, detritus) would be the strongest determinants of occupancy for each of the 4 species; however, we found greater support for all species for models including variables describing position within the stream network, stream size, or stream microhabitat. A monitoring design focused on headwater sections had greater power to detect changes in occupancy and the dynamic parameters in each of 3 scenarios for the dusky salamander (Desmognathus fuscus) and red salamander (Pseudotriton ruber). Results for transect length were more variable, but across all species and scenarios, 25-m transects are most suitable as a balance between maximizing detection probability and describing colonization and extinction. These results inform sampling design and provide a general framework for setting appropriate goals, effort, and duration in the initial planning stages of research programs on stream salamanders in the eastern United States.

Applying ecological criteria to marine reserve design: A case study from the California Channel Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Airame, S.; Dugan, J.E.; Lafferty, K.D.; Leslie, H.; McArdle, D.A.; Warner, R.R.

2003-01-01

Using ecological criteria as a theoretical framework, we describe the steps involved in designing a network of marine reserves for conservation and fisheries management. Although we describe the case study of the Channel Islands, the approach to marine reserve design may be effective in other regions where traditional management alone does not sustain marine resources. A group of agencies, organizations, and individuals established clear goals for marine reserves in the Channel Islands, including conservation of ecosystem biodiversity, sustainable fisheries, economic viability, natural and cultural heritage, and education. Given the constraints of risk management, experimental design, monitoring, and enforcement, scientists recommended at least one, but no more than four, reserves in each biogeographic region. In general, the percentage of an area to be included in a reserve network depends on the goals. In the Channel Islands, after consideration of both conservation goals and the risk from human threats and natural catastrophes, scientists recommended reserving an area of 30-50% of all representative habitats in each biogeographic region. For most species of concern, except pinnipeds and seabirds, information about distributions, dispersal, and population growth was limited. As an alternative to species distribution information, suitable habitats for species of concern were used to locate potential reserve sites. We used a simulated annealing algorithm to identify potential reserve network scenarios that would represent all habitats within the smallest area possible. The analysis produced an array of potential reserve network scenarios that all met the established goals.

Defense Resource Management Studies: Introduction to Capability and Acquisition Planning Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-01

interchangeable and useful in a common contextual framework . Currently, both simulations use a common scenario, the same fictitious country, and...culture, legal framework , and institutions. • Incorporate Principles of Good Governance and Respect for Human Rights: Stress accountability and...Preparing for the assessments requires defining the missions to be analyzed; subdividing the mission definitions to provide a framework for analytic work

Frequency assessment of spatially distributed generations of flood scenarios: an application on Italian territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lomazzi, M.; Roth, G.; Rudari, R.; Taramasso, A. C.; Ghizzoni, T.; Benedetti, R.; Espa, G.; Terpessi, C.

2009-12-01

The flooding risk impact on society cannot be understated: it influences land use and territorial planning and development at both physical and regulatory levels. To cope with it, a variety of actions can be put in place, involving multidisciplinary competences. Mitigation measures goes from the improvement of monitoring systems to the development of hydraulic structures, throughout land use restrictions, civil protection and insurance plans. All of those options present social and economic impacts, either positive or negative, whose proper estimate should rely on the assumption of appropriate - present and future - scenarios, i.e. quantitative event descriptions in terms of i) the flood hazard, with its probability of occurrence, extension, intensity, and duration, ii) the exposed values and iii) their vulnerability. At present, initial attention has been devoted to the design of flood scenarios, or ensembles of them, and to the evaluation of their frequency of occurrence. In the present work, a model for spatially distributed flood scenarios generation and frequency assessment is proposed and applied to the Italian territory. The study area has been divided into homogeneous regions according to their hydrologic, orographic and meteoclimatic characteristics. A statistical model for flood scenarios simulation has been implemented throughout a conditional approach based on MCMC simulations by using i) a historical flood events catalogue; ii) a homogeneous regions correlation matrix; and iii) an auxiliary variables data set. In this framework, the role of the information stored in the historical flood events catalogue "Aree Vulnerate Italiane" (AVI, http://avi.gndci.cnr.it/), produced by the Italian National Research Council, is of crucial importance.

The use of engineering design scenarios to assess student knowledge of global, societal, economic, and environmental contexts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, Ann F.; Hynes, Morgan M.; Johnson, Amy M.; Carberry, Adam R.

2016-07-01

Product archaeology as an educational approach asks engineering students to consider and explore the broader societal and global impacts of a product's manufacturing, distribution, use, and disposal on people, economics, and the environment. This study examined the impact of product archaeology in a project-based engineering design course on student attitudes and perceptions about engineering and abilities to extend and refine knowledge about broader contexts. Two design scenarios were created: one related to dental hygiene and one related to vaccination delivery. Design scenarios were used to (1) assess knowledge of broader contexts, and (2) test variability of student responses across different contextual situations. Results from pre- to post-surveying revealed improved student perceptions of knowledge of broader contexts. Significant differences were observed between the two design scenarios. The findings support the assumption that different design scenarios elicit consideration of different contexts and design scenarios can be constructed to target specific contextual considerations.

Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldenson, N.; Mauger, G.; Leung, L. R.

Internal variability in the climate system can contribute substantial uncertainty in climate projections, particularly at regional scales. Internal variability can be quantified using large ensembles of simulations that are identical but for perturbed initial conditions. Here we compare methods for quantifying internal variability. Our study region spans the west coast of North America, which is strongly influenced by El Niño and other large-scale dynamics through their contribution to large-scale internal variability. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find that internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble ofmore » opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter also produce estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible, which has implications for ensemble design in large modeling efforts.« less

Variation and adaptation: learning from success in patient safety-oriented simulation training.

PubMed

Dieckmann, Peter; Patterson, Mary; Lahlou, Saadi; Mesman, Jessica; Nyström, Patrik; Krage, Ralf

2017-01-01

Simulation is traditionally used to reduce errors and their negative consequences. But according to modern safety theories, this focus overlooks the learning potential of the positive performance, which is much more common than errors. Therefore, a supplementary approach to simulation is needed to unfold its full potential. In our commentary, we describe the learning from success (LFS) approach to simulation and debriefing. Drawing on several theoretical frameworks, we suggest supplementing the widespread deficit-oriented, corrective approach to simulation with an approach that focusses on systematically understanding how good performance is produced in frequent (mundane) simulation scenarios. We advocate to investigate and optimize human activity based on the connected layers of any setting: the embodied competences of the healthcare professionals, the social and organizational rules that guide their actions, and the material aspects of the setting. We discuss implications of these theoretical perspectives for the design and conduct of simulation scenarios, post-simulation debriefings, and faculty development programs.

Naturalistic Decision Making for Power System Operators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin; Robinson, Marck

2010-02-01

Motivation – Investigations of large-scale outages in the North American interconnected electric system often attribute the causes to three T’s: Trees, Training and Tools. To document and understand the mental processes used by expert operators when making critical decisions, a naturalistic decision making (NDM) model was developed. Transcripts of conversations were analyzed to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. Findings/Design – An item analysis indicated that the operators’ Situation Awareness Levels, mental models, and mental simulations can be mapped at different points in the training scenario. This may identify improved training methods or analytical/ visualization tools. Originality/Value – This studymore » applies for the first time, the concepts of Recognition Primed Decision Making, Situation Awareness Levels and Cognitive Task Analysis to training of electric power system operators. Take away message – The NDM approach provides a viable framework for systematic training management to accelerate learning in simulator-based training scenarios for power system operators and teams.« less

On-board orbit determination for low thrust LEO-MEO transfer by Consider Kalman Filtering and multi-constellation GNSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menzione, Francesco; Renga, Alfredo; Grassi, Michele

2017-09-01

In the framework of the novel navigation scenario offered by the next generation satellite low thrust autonomous LEO-to-MEO orbit transfer, this study proposes and tests a GNSS based navigation system aimed at providing on-board precise and robust orbit determination strategy to override rising criticalities. The analysis introduces the challenging design issues to simultaneously deal with the variable orbit regime, the electric thrust control and the high orbit GNSS visibility conditions. The Consider Kalman Filtering approach is here proposed as the filtering scheme to process the GNSS raw data provided by a multi-antenna/multi-constellation receiver in presence of uncertain parameters affecting measurements, actuation and spacecraft physical properties. Filter robustness and achievable navigation accuracy are verified using a high fidelity simulation of the low-thrust rising scenario and performance are compared with the one of a standard Extended Kalman Filtering approach to highlight the advantages of the proposed solution. Performance assessment of the developed navigation solution is accomplished for different transfer phases.

The role of patient simulation and incident reporting in the development and evaluation of medical devices and the training of their users.

PubMed

Dieckmann, P; Rall, M; Ostergaard, D

2009-01-01

We describe how simulation and incident reporting can be used in combination to make the interaction between people, (medical) technology and organisation safer for patients and users. We provide the background rationale for our conceptual ideas and apply the concepts to the analysis of an actual incident report. Simulation can serve as a laboratory to analyse such cases and to create relevant and effective training scenarios based on such analyses. We will describe a methodological framework for analysing simulation scenarios in a way that allows discovering and discussing mismatches between conceptual models of the device design and mental models users hold about the device and its use. We further describe how incident reporting systems can be used as one source of data to conduct the necessary needs analyses - both for training and further needs for closer analysis of specific devices or some of their special features or modes during usability analyses.

Radiation Transport Calculation of the UGXR Collimators for the Jules Horowitz Reactor (JHR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chento, Yelko; Hueso, César; Zamora, Imanol; Fabbri, Marco; Fuente, Cristina De La; Larringan, Asier

2017-09-01

Jules Horowitz Reactor (JHR), a major infrastructure of European interest in the fission domain, will be built and operated in the framework of an international cooperation, including the development and qualification of materials and nuclear fuel used in nuclear industry. For this purpose UGXR Collimators, two multi slit gamma and X-ray collimation mechatronic systems, will be installed at the JHR pool and at the Irradiated Components Storage pool. Expected amounts of radiation produced by the spent fuel and X-ray accelerator implies diverse aspects need to be verified to ensure adequate radiological zoning and personnel radiation protection. A computational methodology was devised to validate the Collimators design by means of coupling different engineering codes. In summary, several assessments were performed by means of MCNP5v1.60 to fulfil all the radiological requirements in Nominal scenario (TEDE < 25µSv/h) and in Maintenance scenario (TEDE < 2mSv/h) among others, detailing the methodology, hypotheses and assumptions employed.

A relevance theory of induction.

PubMed

Medin, Douglas L; Coley, John D; Storms, Gert; Hayes, Brett K

2003-09-01

A framework theory, organized around the principle of relevance, is proposed for category-based reasoning. According to the relevance principle, people assume that premises are informative with respect to conclusions. This idea leads to the prediction that people will use causal scenarios and property reinforcement strategies in inductive reasoning. These predictions are contrasted with both existing models and normative logic. Judgments of argument strength were gathered in three different countries, and the results showed the importance of both causal scenarios and property reinforcement in category-based inferences. The relation between the relevance framework and existing models of category-based inductive reasoning is discussed in the light of these findings.

Multiscale Resilience of Complex Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J. M.; Giangola-Murzyn, A.; Hoang Cong, T.

2014-12-01

We first argue the need for well defined resilience metrics to better evaluate the resilience of complex systems such as (peri-)urban flood management systems. We review both the successes and limitations of resilience metrics in the framework of dynamical systems and their generalization in the framework of the viability theory. We then point out that the most important step to achieve is to define resilience across scales instead of doing it at a given scale. Our preliminary, critical analysis of the series of attempts to define an operational resilience metrics led us to consider a scale invariant metrics based on the scale independent codimension of extreme singularities. Multifractal downscaling of climate scenarios can be considered as a first illustration. We focussed on a flood scenario evaluation method with the help of two singularities γ_s and γ_Max, corresponding respectively to an effective and a probable maximum singularity, that yield an innovative framework to address the issues of flood resilience systems in a scale independent manner. Indeed, the stationarity of the universal multifractal parameters would result into a rather stable value of probable maximum singularity γ_s. By fixing the limit of acceptability for a maximum flood water depth at a given scale, with a corresponding singularity, we effectively fix the threshold of the probable maximum singularity γ_s as a criterion of the flood resilience we accept. Then various scenarios of flood resilient measures could be simulated with the help of Multi-Hydro under upcoming climat scenarios. The scenarios that result in estimates of either γ_Max or γ_s below the pre-selected γ_s value will assure the effective flood resilience of the whole modeled system across scales. The research for this work was supported, in part, by the EU FP7 SMARTesT and INTERREG IVB RainGain projects.

A modeling framework for evaluating streambank stabilization practices for reach-scale sediment reduction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Streambank stabilization techniques are often implemented to reduce sediment loads from unstable streambanks. Process-based models can predict sediment yields with stabilization scenarios prior to implementation. However, a framework does not exist on how to effectively utilize these models to evalu...

Where the Money Is

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Kurtz

2018-01-01

This article describes a grantmanship framework for high school science educators. The scenario described illustrates the importance of grant writing in an era of increased school accountability and tightened purse strings. The framework presented can be used for most STEM-related projects and can guide educators toward high-quality instruction…

Design of crashworthy structures with controlled behavior in HCA framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandi, Punit

The field of crashworthiness design is gaining more interest and attention from automakers around the world due to increasing competition and tighter safety norms. In the last two decades, topology and topometry optimization methods from structural optimization have been widely explored to improve existing designs or conceive new designs with better crashworthiness. Although many gradient-based and heuristic methods for topology- and topometry-based crashworthiness design are available these days, most of them result in stiff structures that are suitable only for a set of vehicle components in which maximizing the energy absorption or minimizing the intrusion is the main concern. However, there are some other components in a vehicle structure that should have characteristics of both stiffness and flexibility. Moreover, the load paths within the structure and potential buckle modes also play an important role in efficient functioning of such components. For example, the front bumper, side frame rails, steering column, and occupant protection devices like the knee bolster should all exhibit controlled deformation and collapse behavior. The primary objective of this research is to develop new methodologies to design crashworthy structures with controlled behavior. The well established Hybrid Cellular Automaton (HCA) method is used as the basic framework for the new methodologies, and compliant mechanism-type (sub)structures are the highlight of this research. The ability of compliant mechanisms to efficiently transfer force and/or motion from points of application of input loads to desired points within the structure is used to design solid and tubular components that exhibit controlled deformation and collapse behavior under crash loads. In addition, a new methodology for controlling the behavior of a structure under multiple crash load scenarios by adaptively changing the contributions from individual load cases is developed. Applied to practical design problems, the results demonstrate that the methodologies provide a practical tool to aid the design engineer in generating design concepts for crashworthy structures with controlled behavior. Although developed in the HCA framework, the basic ideas behind these methods are generic and can be easily implemented with other available topology- and topometry-based optimization methods.

The design and implementation of an Interactive Computerised Decision Support Framework (ICDSF) as a strategy to improve nursing students' clinical reasoning skills.

PubMed

Hoffman, Kerry; Dempsey, Jennifer; Levett-Jones, Tracy; Noble, Danielle; Hickey, Noelene; Jeong, Sarah; Hunter, Sharyn; Norton, Carol

2011-08-01

This paper describes the conceptual design and testing of an Interactive Computerised Decision Support Framework (ICDSF) which was constructed to enable student nurses to "think like a nurse." The ICDSF was based on a model of clinical reasoning. Teaching student nurses to reason clinically is important as poor clinical reasoning skills can lead to "failure-to rescue" of deteriorating patients. The framework of the ICDSF was based on nursing concepts to encourage deep learning and transferability of knowledge. The principles of active student participation, situated cognition to solve problems, authenticity, and cognitive rehearsal were used to develop the ICDSF. The ICDSF was designed in such a way that students moved through it in a step-wise fashion and were required to achieve competency at each step before proceeding to the next. The quality of the ICDSF was evaluated using a questionairre survey, students' written comments and student assessment measures on a pilot and the ICDSF. Overall students were highly satisfied with the clinical scenarios of the ICDSF and believed they were an interesting and useful way to engage in authentic clinical learning. They also believed the ICDSF was useful in developing cognitive skills such as clinical reasoning, problem-solving and decision-making. Some reported issues were the need for good technical support and the lack of face to face contact when using e-learning. Some students also believed the ICDSF was less useful than actual clinical placements. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Grid job monitoring system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumitrescu, Catalin; Nowack, Andreas; Padhi, Sanjay; Sarkar, Subir

2010-04-01

This paper presents a web-based Job Monitoring framework for individual Grid sites that allows users to follow in detail their jobs in quasi-real time. The framework consists of several independent components : (a) a set of sensors that run on the site CE and worker nodes and update a database, (b) a simple yet extensible web services framework and (c) an Ajax powered web interface having a look-and-feel and control similar to a desktop application. The monitoring framework supports LSF, Condor and PBS-like batch systems. This is one of the first monitoring systems where an X.509 authenticated web interface can be seamlessly accessed by both end-users and site administrators. While a site administrator has access to all the possible information, a user can only view the jobs for the Virtual Organizations (VO) he/she is a part of. The monitoring framework design supports several possible deployment scenarios. For a site running a supported batch system, the system may be deployed as a whole, or existing site sensors can be adapted and reused with the web services components. A site may even prefer to build the web server independently and choose to use only the Ajax powered web interface. Finally, the system is being used to monitor a glideinWMS instance. This broadens the scope significantly, allowing it to monitor jobs over multiple sites.

IMHOTEP: virtual reality framework for surgical applications.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, Micha; Kenngott, Hannes; Preukschas, Anas; Huber, Matthias; Bettscheider, Lisa; Müller-Stich, Beat; Speidel, Stefanie

2018-05-01

The data which is available to surgeons before, during and after surgery is steadily increasing in quantity as well as diversity. When planning a patient's treatment, this large amount of information can be difficult to interpret. To aid in processing the information, new methods need to be found to present multimodal patient data, ideally combining textual, imagery, temporal and 3D data in a holistic and context-aware system. We present an open-source framework which allows handling of patient data in a virtual reality (VR) environment. By using VR technology, the workspace available to the surgeon is maximized and 3D patient data is rendered in stereo, which increases depth perception. The framework organizes the data into workspaces and contains tools which allow users to control, manipulate and enhance the data. Due to the framework's modular design, it can easily be adapted and extended for various clinical applications. The framework was evaluated by clinical personnel (77 participants). The majority of the group stated that a complex surgical situation is easier to comprehend by using the framework, and that it is very well suited for education. Furthermore, the application to various clinical scenarios-including the simulation of excitation propagation in the human atrium-demonstrated the framework's adaptability. As a feasibility study, the framework was used during the planning phase of the surgical removal of a large central carcinoma from a patient's liver. The clinical evaluation showed a large potential and high acceptance for the VR environment in a medical context. The various applications confirmed that the framework is easily extended and can be used in real-time simulation as well as for the manipulation of complex anatomical structures.

CSNS computing environment Based on OpenStack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yakang; Qi, Fazhi; Chen, Gang; Wang, Yanming; Hong, Jianshu

2017-10-01

Cloud computing can allow for more flexible configuration of IT resources and optimized hardware utilization, it also can provide computing service according to the real need. We are applying this computing mode to the China Spallation Neutron Source(CSNS) computing environment. So, firstly, CSNS experiment and its computing scenarios and requirements are introduced in this paper. Secondly, the design and practice of cloud computing platform based on OpenStack are mainly demonstrated from the aspects of cloud computing system framework, network, storage and so on. Thirdly, some improvments to openstack we made are discussed further. Finally, current status of CSNS cloud computing environment are summarized in the ending of this paper.

Formalising recall by genotype as an efficient approach to detailed phenotyping and causal inference.

PubMed

Corbin, Laura J; Tan, Vanessa Y; Hughes, David A; Wade, Kaitlin H; Paul, Dirk S; Tansey, Katherine E; Butcher, Frances; Dudbridge, Frank; Howson, Joanna M; Jallow, Momodou W; John, Catherine; Kingston, Nathalie; Lindgren, Cecilia M; O'Donavan, Michael; O'Rahilly, Stephen; Owen, Michael J; Palmer, Colin N A; Pearson, Ewan R; Scott, Robert A; van Heel, David A; Whittaker, John; Frayling, Tim; Tobin, Martin D; Wain, Louise V; Smith, George Davey; Evans, David M; Karpe, Fredrik; McCarthy, Mark I; Danesh, John; Franks, Paul W; Timpson, Nicholas J

2018-02-19

Detailed phenotyping is required to deepen our understanding of the biological mechanisms behind genetic associations. In addition, the impact of potentially modifiable risk factors on disease requires analytical frameworks that allow causal inference. Here, we discuss the characteristics of Recall-by-Genotype (RbG) as a study design aimed at addressing both these needs. We describe two broad scenarios for the application of RbG: studies using single variants and those using multiple variants. We consider the efficacy and practicality of the RbG approach, provide a catalogue of UK-based resources for such studies and present an online RbG study planner.

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

DOE PAGES

Absar, Syeda Mariya; Preston, Benjamin L.

2015-05-25

The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However,more » the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.« less

A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations.

PubMed

Dotson, G Scott; Hudson, Naomi L; Maier, Andrew

2015-01-01

Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management.

A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations

PubMed Central

Dotson, G. Scott; Hudson, Naomi L.; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management. PMID:26312660

Teaching Conflict Management Using a Scenario-Based Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Callanan, Gerard A.; Perri, David F.

2006-01-01

In this article, the authors present a framework for the teaching of conflict management in college courses. The framework describes an experiential learning approach for helping individuals understand the influence of contextual factors in the selection of conflict handling strategy. It also includes a comparison of participants' choice of style,…

Optimal Management and Design of Energy Systems under Atmospheric Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anitescu, M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V.

2010-12-01

The generation and distpatch of electricity while maintaining high reliability levels are two of the most daunting engineering problems of the modern era. This was demonstrated by the Northeast blackout of August 2003, which resulted in the loss of 6.2 gigawatts that served more than 50 million people and which resulted in economic losses on the order of $10 billion. In addition, there exist strong socioeconomic pressures to improve the efficiency of the grid. The most prominent solution to this problem is a substantial increase in the use of renewable energy such as wind and solar. In turn, its uncertain availability—which is due to the intrinsic weather variability—will increase the likelihood of disruptions. In this endeavors of current and next-generation power systems, forecasting atmospheric conditions with uncertainty can and will play a central role, at both the demand and the generation ends. User demands are strongly correlated to physical conditions such as temperature, humidity, and solar radiation. The reason is that the ambient temperature and solar radiation dictate the amount of air conditioning and lighting needed in residential and commercial buildings. But these potential benefits would come at the expense of increased variability in the dynamics of both production and demand, which would become even more dependent on weather state and its uncertainty. One of the important challenges for energy in our time is how to harness these benefits while “keeping the lights on”—ensuring that the demand is satisfied at all times and that no blackout occurs while all energy sources are optimally used. If we are to meet this challenge, accounting for uncertainty in the atmospheric conditions is essential, since this will allow minimizing the effects of false positives: committing too little baseline power in anticipation of demand that is underestimated or renewable energy levels that fail to materialize. In this work we describe a framework for the optimal management and design of energy systems, such as the power grid or building systems, under atmospheric conditions uncertainty. The framework is defined in terms of a mathematical paradigm called stochastic programming: minimization of the expected value of the decision-makers objective function subject to physical and operational constraints, such as low blackout porbability, that are enforced on each scenario. We report results on testing the framework on the optimal management of power grid systems under high wind penetration scenarios, a problem whose time horizon is in the order of days. We discuss the computational effort of scenario generation which involves running WRF at high spatio-temporal resolution dictated by the operational constraints as well as solving the optimal dispatch problem. We demonstrate that accounting for uncertainty in atmospheric conditions results in blackout prevention, whereas decisions using only mean forecast does not. We discuss issues in using the framework for planning problems, whose time horizon is of several decades and what requirements this problem would entail from climate simulation systems.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real world climate sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the uppper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present day observables and future changes while the large spread of future projected changes, highlights the ongoing need for such work.

A Micro-Level Data-Calibrated Agent-Based Model: The Synergy between Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modeling.

PubMed

Singh, Karandeep; Ahn, Chang-Won; Paik, Euihyun; Bae, Jang Won; Lee, Chun-Hee

2018-01-01

Artificial life (ALife) examines systems related to natural life, its processes, and its evolution, using simulations with computer models, robotics, and biochemistry. In this article, we focus on the computer modeling, or "soft," aspects of ALife and prepare a framework for scientists and modelers to be able to support such experiments. The framework is designed and built to be a parallel as well as distributed agent-based modeling environment, and does not require end users to have expertise in parallel or distributed computing. Furthermore, we use this framework to implement a hybrid model using microsimulation and agent-based modeling techniques to generate an artificial society. We leverage this artificial society to simulate and analyze population dynamics using Korean population census data. The agents in this model derive their decisional behaviors from real data (microsimulation feature) and interact among themselves (agent-based modeling feature) to proceed in the simulation. The behaviors, interactions, and social scenarios of the agents are varied to perform an analysis of population dynamics. We also estimate the future cost of pension policies based on the future population structure of the artificial society. The proposed framework and model demonstrates how ALife techniques can be used by researchers in relation to social issues and policies.

Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

Sensei: A Multi-Modal Framework for Assessing Stress Resiliency

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-30

DATE MAY2013 2. REPORT TYPE 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Sensei: A Multi-Modal Framework for Assessing Stress Resiliency 6. AUTHOR(S) 7. PERFORMING...Report: Distribution A Page 1 of 3 SRI International (Sarnoff) Document Sensei: A Multi-Modal Framework for Assessing Stress Resiliency (April... Stress Markers in Real-Time in Lab Environment with graded exposure to ICT’s scenarios MAC 1-6 During this reporting period, we established

Modular Autonomous Systems Technology Framework: A Distributed Solution for System Monitoring and Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badger, Julia M.; Claunch, Charles; Mathis, Frank

2017-01-01

The Modular Autonomous Systems Technology (MAST) framework is a tool for building distributed, hierarchical autonomous systems. Originally intended for the autonomous monitoring and control of spacecraft, this framework concept provides support for variable autonomy, assume-guarantee contracts, and efficient communication between subsystems and a centralized systems manager. MAST was developed at NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC) and has been applied to an integrated spacecraft example scenario.

Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and present a good, coherent, and design-oriented story without methodical support. The paper therefore contributes with guidelines that delineate a) what a design-oriented persona-scenario should consist of (product) and b) how to write it (procedure) in order to generate and validate as many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas as possible (purpose). The purpose of the guidelines is to facilitate the construction of persona-scenarios as good, coherent stories, which make sense to the storytellers and to the audience - and which therefore generate many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas.

Teaching Newton's 3rd law of motion using learning by design approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aquino, Jiezel G.; Caliguid, Mariel P.; Buan, Amelia T.; Magsayod, Joy R.; Lahoylahoy, Myrna E.

2018-01-01

This paper presents the process and implementation of Learning by Design Approach in teaching Newton's 3rd Law of Motion. A lesson activity from integrative STEM education was adapted, modified and enhanced through pilot testing. After revisions, the implementation was done to one class. The respondent's prior knowledge was first assessed by a pretest. PPIT (present the scenario, plan, implement and test) was the framework followed in the implementation of Learning by Design. Worksheets were then utilized to measure their conceptual understanding and perception. A score guide was also used to evaluate the student's output. Paired t-test analysis showed that there is a significant difference in the pretest and posttest achievement scores. This implies that the performance of the students have improved during the implementation of the Learning by Design. The Analysis of variance also depicts that the low, average and high benefited in the Learning by Design approach. The results of this study suggests that Learning by Design is an effective approach in teaching Newton's 3rd Law of Motion and thus be used in a Science classroom.

Medical Content Searching, Retrieving, and Sharing Over the Internet: Lessons Learned From the mEducator Through a Scenario-Based Evaluation

PubMed Central

Spachos, Dimitris; Mylläri, Jarkko; Giordano, Daniela; Dafli, Eleni; Mitsopoulou, Evangelia; Schizas, Christos N; Pattichis, Constantinos; Nikolaidou, Maria

2015-01-01

Background The mEducator Best Practice Network (BPN) implemented and extended standards and reference models in e-learning to develop innovative frameworks as well as solutions that enable specialized state-of-the-art medical educational content to be discovered, retrieved, shared, and re-purposed across European Institutions, targeting medical students, doctors, educators and health care professionals. Scenario-based evaluation for usability testing, complemented with data from online questionnaires and field notes of users’ performance, was designed and utilized for the evaluation of these solutions. Objective The objective of this work is twofold: (1) to describe one instantiation of the mEducator BPN solutions (mEducator3.0 - “MEdical Education LINnked Arena” MELINA+) with a focus on the metadata schema used, as well as on other aspects of the system that pertain to usability and acceptance, and (2) to present evaluation results on the suitability of the proposed metadata schema for searching, retrieving, and sharing of medical content and with respect to the overall usability and acceptance of the system from the target users. Methods A comprehensive evaluation methodology framework was developed and applied to four case studies, which were conducted in four different countries (ie, Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria and Romania), with a total of 126 participants. In these case studies, scenarios referring to creating, sharing, and retrieving medical educational content using mEducator3.0 were used. The data were collected through two online questionnaires, consisting of 36 closed-ended questions and two open-ended questions that referred to mEducator 3.0 and through the use of field notes during scenario-based evaluations. Results The main findings of the study showed that even though the informational needs of the mEducator target groups were addressed to a satisfactory extent and the metadata schema supported content creation, sharing, and retrieval from an end-user perspective, users faced difficulties in achieving a shared understanding of the meaning of some metadata fields and in correctly managing the intellectual property rights of repurposed content. Conclusions The results of this evaluation impact researchers, medical professionals, and designers interested in using similar systems for educational content sharing in medical and other domains. Recommendations on how to improve the search, retrieval, identification, and obtaining of medical resources are provided, by addressing issues of content description metadata, content description procedures, and intellectual property rights for re-purposed content. PMID:26453250

A Concise and Practical Framework for the Development and Usability Evaluation of Patient Information Websites

PubMed Central

Knijnenburg, S.L.; Kremer, L.C.; Jaspers, M.W.M.

2015-01-01

Summary Background The Website Developmental Model for the Healthcare Consumer (WDMHC) is an extensive and successfully evaluated framework that incorporates user-centered design principles. However, due to its extensiveness its application is limited. In the current study we apply a subset of the WDMHC framework in a case study concerning the development and evaluation of a website aimed at childhood cancer survivors (CCS). Objective To assess whether the implementation of a limited subset of the WDMHC-framework is sufficient to deliver a high-quality website with few usability problems, aimed at a specific patient population. Methods The website was developed using a six-step approach divided into three phases derived from the WDMHC: 1) information needs analysis, mock-up creation and focus group discussion; 2) website prototype development; and 3) heuristic evaluation (HE) and think aloud analysis (TA). The HE was performed by three double experts (knowledgeable both in usability engineering and childhood cancer survivorship), who assessed the site using the Nielsen heuristics. Eight end-users were invited to complete three scenarios covering all functionality of the website by TA. Results The HE and TA were performed concurrently on the website prototype. The HE resulted in 29 unique usability issues; the end-users performing the TA encountered eleven unique problems. Four issues specifically revealed by HE concerned cosmetic design flaws, whereas two problems revealed by TA were related to website content. Conclusion Based on the subset of the WDMHC framework we were able to deliver a website that closely matched the expectancy of the end-users and resulted in relatively few usability problems during end-user testing. With the successful application of this subset of the WDMHC, we provide developers with a clear and easily applicable framework for the development of healthcare websites with high usability aimed at specific medical populations. PMID:26171083

Needs and challenges for assessing the environmental impacts of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs)

PubMed Central

Romero-Franco, Michelle; Godwin, Hilary A; Bilal, Muhammad

2017-01-01

The potential environmental impact of nanomaterials is a critical concern and the ability to assess these potential impacts is top priority for the progress of sustainable nanotechnology. Risk assessment tools are needed to enable decision makers to rapidly assess the potential risks that may be imposed by engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), particularly when confronted by the reality of limited hazard or exposure data. In this review, we examine a range of available risk assessment frameworks considering the contexts in which different stakeholders may need to assess the potential environmental impacts of ENMs. Assessment frameworks and tools that are suitable for the different decision analysis scenarios are then identified. In addition, we identify the gaps that currently exist between the needs of decision makers, for a range of decision scenarios, and the abilities of present frameworks and tools to meet those needs. PMID:28546894

Integrating software architectures for distributed simulations and simulation analysis communities.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldsby, Michael E.; Fellig, Daniel; Linebarger, John Michael

2005-10-01

The one-year Software Architecture LDRD (No.79819) was a cross-site effort between Sandia California and Sandia New Mexico. The purpose of this research was to further develop and demonstrate integrating software architecture frameworks for distributed simulation and distributed collaboration in the homeland security domain. The integrated frameworks were initially developed through the Weapons of Mass Destruction Decision Analysis Center (WMD-DAC), sited at SNL/CA, and the National Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center (NISAC), sited at SNL/NM. The primary deliverable was a demonstration of both a federation of distributed simulations and a federation of distributed collaborative simulation analysis communities in the context ofmore » the same integrated scenario, which was the release of smallpox in San Diego, California. To our knowledge this was the first time such a combination of federations under a single scenario has ever been demonstrated. A secondary deliverable was the creation of the standalone GroupMeld{trademark} collaboration client, which uses the GroupMeld{trademark} synchronous collaboration framework. In addition, a small pilot experiment that used both integrating frameworks allowed a greater range of crisis management options to be performed and evaluated than would have been possible without the use of the frameworks.« less

An integrated framework for detecting suspicious behaviors in video surveillance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zin, Thi Thi; Tin, Pyke; Hama, Hiromitsu; Toriu, Takashi

2014-03-01

In this paper, we propose an integrated framework for detecting suspicious behaviors in video surveillance systems which are established in public places such as railway stations, airports, shopping malls and etc. Especially, people loitering in suspicion, unattended objects left behind and exchanging suspicious objects between persons are common security concerns in airports and other transit scenarios. These involve understanding scene/event, analyzing human movements, recognizing controllable objects, and observing the effect of the human movement on those objects. In the proposed framework, multiple background modeling technique, high level motion feature extraction method and embedded Markov chain models are integrated for detecting suspicious behaviors in real time video surveillance systems. Specifically, the proposed framework employs probability based multiple backgrounds modeling technique to detect moving objects. Then the velocity and distance measures are computed as the high level motion features of the interests. By using an integration of the computed features and the first passage time probabilities of the embedded Markov chain, the suspicious behaviors in video surveillance are analyzed for detecting loitering persons, objects left behind and human interactions such as fighting. The proposed framework has been tested by using standard public datasets and our own video surveillance scenarios.

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Design and Effects of Scenario Educational Software.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keegan, Mark

1993-01-01

Describes the development of educational computer software called scenario software that was designed to incorporate advances in cognitive, affective, and physiological research. Instructional methods are outlined; the need to change from didactic methods to discovery learning is explained; and scenario software design features are discussed. (24…

Improving Military Change Detection Skills in a Virtual Environment: The Effects of Time, Threat Level, and Tutorials

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

36 b. Designing for Vigilance .............................................. 38 viii c. Landmarks and Spatial Navigation... DESIGNING AND EXECUTING CHANGE DETECTION SCENARIO TRAINING ............................................................................... 153 A...SCENARIO INSTRUCTIONS FOR EDITORS ................................. 153 B. HOW TO DESIGN A CHANGE DETECTION SCENARIO .............. 157 APPENDIX K

Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns in Marine Renewable Energy Projects- Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kramer, Sharon; Previsic, Mirko; Nelson, Peter

2010-06-17

Marine wave and tidal energy technology could interact with marine resources in ways that are not well understood. As wave and tidal energy conversion projects are planned, tested, and deployed, a wide range of stakeholders will be engaged; these include developers, state and federal regulatory agencies, environmental groups, tribal governments, recreational and commercial fishermen, and local communities. Identifying stakeholders’ environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development will help developers address and minimize potential environmental effects. Identifying important concerns will also assist with streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles by the industry inmore » the U.S. today. In September 2008, RE Vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to conduct a scenario-based evaluation of emerging hydrokinetic technologies. The purpose of this evaluation is to identify and characterize environmental impacts that are likely to occur, demonstrate a process for analyzing these impacts, identify the “key” environmental concerns for each scenario, identify areas of uncertainty, and describe studies that could address that uncertainty. This process is intended to provide an objective and transparent tool to assist in decision-making for siting and selection of technology for wave and tidal energy development. RE Vision worked with H. T. Harvey & Associates, to develop a framework for identifying key environmental concerns with marine renewable technology. This report describes the results of this study. This framework was applied to varying wave and tidal power conversion technologies, scales, and locations. The following wave and tidal energy scenarios were considered: 4 wave energy generation technologies 3 tidal energy generation technologies 3 sites: Humboldt coast, California (wave); Makapu’u Point, Oahu, Hawaii (wave); and the Tacoma Narrows, Washington (tidal) 3 project sizes: pilot, small commercial, and large commercial The possible combinations total 24 wave technology scenarios and 9 tidal technology scenarios. We evaluated 3 of the 33 scenarios in detail: 1. A small commercial OPT Power Buoy project off the Humboldt County, California coast 2. A small commercial Pelamis Wave Power P-2 project off Makapu’u Point, Oahu, Hawaii 3. A pilot MCT SeaGen tidal project, sited in the Tacoma Narrows, Washington. This framework document used information available from permitting documents that were written to support actual wave or tidal energy projects, but the results obtained here should not be confused with those of the permitting documents1. The main difference between this framework document and permitting documents of currently proposed pilot projects is that this framework identifies key environmental concerns and describes the next steps in addressing those concerns; permitting documents must identify effects, find or declare thresholds of significance, evaluate the effects against the thresholds, and find mitigation measures that will minimize or avoid the effects so they can be considered less-than-significant. Two methodologies, 1) an environmental effects analysis and 2) Raptools, were developed and tested to identify potential environmental effects associated with wave or tidal energy conversion projects. For the environmental effects analysis, we developed a framework based on standard risk assessment techniques. The framework was applied to the three scenarios listed above. The environmental effects analysis addressed questions such as: What is the temporal and spatial exposure of a species at a site? What are the specific potential project effects on that species? What measures could minimize, mitigate, or eliminate negative effects? Are there potential effects of the project, or species’ response to the effect, that are highly uncertain and warrant additional study? The second methodology, Raptools, is a collaborative approach useful for evaluating multiple characteristics of numerous siting or technology alternatives, and it allows us to graphically compare alternatives. We used Raptools to answer these questions: How do the scenarios compare, in terms of exposure, risks, and effects to the ecological and human environments? Are there sites that seem to present the fewest effects regardless of technology and scale? Which attributes account for many or much of the effects associated with wave or tidal energy development?« less

Manufacturing process and material selection in concurrent collaborative design of MEMS devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zha, Xuan F.; Du, H.

2003-09-01

In this paper we present knowledge of an intensive approach and system for selecting suitable manufacturing processes and materials for microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) devices in concurrent collaborative design environment. In the paper, fundamental issues on MEMS manufacturing process and material selection such as concurrent design framework, manufacturing process and material hierarchies, and selection strategy are first addressed. Then, a fuzzy decision support scheme for a multi-criteria decision-making problem is proposed for estimating, ranking and selecting possible manufacturing processes, materials and their combinations. A Web-based prototype advisory system for the MEMS manufacturing process and material selection, WebMEMS-MASS, is developed based on the client-knowledge server architecture and framework to help the designer find good processes and materials for MEMS devices. The system, as one of the important parts of an advanced simulation and modeling tool for MEMS design, is a concept level process and material selection tool, which can be used as a standalone application or a Java applet via the Web. The running sessions of the system are inter-linked with webpages of tutorials and reference pages to explain the facets, fabrication processes and material choices, and calculations and reasoning in selection are performed using process capability and material property data from a remote Web-based database and interactive knowledge base that can be maintained and updated via the Internet. The use of the developed system including operation scenario, use support, and integration with an MEMS collaborative design system is presented. Finally, an illustration example is provided.

Watershed scale impacts of bioenergy, landscape changes, and ecosystem response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaubey, Indrajeet; Cibin, Raj; Chiang, Li-Chi

2013-04-01

In recent years, high US gasoline prices and national security concerns have prompted a renewed interest in alternative fuel sources to meet increasing energy demands, particularly by the transportation sector. Food and animal feed crops, such as corn and soybean, sugarcane, residue from these crops, and cellulosic perennial crops grown specifically to produce bioenergy (e.g. switchgrass, Miscanthus, mixed grasses), and fast growing trees (e.g. hybrid poplar) are expected to provide the majority of the biofeedstock for energy production. One of the grand challenges in supplying large quantities of grain-based and lignocellulosic materials for the production of biofuels is ensuring that they are produced in environmentally sustainable and economically viable manner. Feedstock selection will vary geographically based on regional adaptability, productivity, and reliability. Changes in land use and management practices related to biofeedstock production may have potential impacts on water quantity and quality, sediments, and pesticides and nutrient losses, and these impacts may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. We have made many improvements in the currently available biophysical models (e.g. Soil and Water Assessment Tool or SWAT model) to evaluate sustainability of energy crop production. We have utilized the improved model to evaluate impacts of both annual (e.g. corn) and perennial bioenergy crops (e.g. Miscanthus and switchgrass at) on hydrology and water quality under the following plausible bioenergy crop production scenarios: (1) at highly erodible areas; (2) at agriculturally marginal areas; (3) at pasture areas; (4) crop residue (corn stover) removal; and (5) combinations of above scenarios. Overall results indicated improvement in water quality with introduction of perennial energy crops. Stream flow at the watershed outlet was reduced under energy crop production scenarios and ranged between 0.3% and 5% across scenarios. Erosion and sediment loading at watershed outlet were reduced with bioenergy scenarios except for stover removal scenarios with reduction ranging between 2.4% to 30.5%. Based on the simulation results for different bioenergy crop production scenario, we have also developed a multi-level spatial optimization framework (MLSOPT) to optimize production of food and energy crops under various sustainability objective functions. The method works in two levels, first level divides large watershed into small subareas and optimum solutions for individually for these subareas are identified. The second level uses these optimum solutions from the first level to identify watershed scale optimum solutions. The framework is tested with a complex spatial optimization case study designed to maximize crop residue (corn stover) harvest with minimum environmental impacts in a 2000 km2 watershed, located in Indiana, USA. In this presentation, results related to optimize sustainability of bioenergy crops will also be discussed.

Are There Scenarios When the Use of Non-Placebo-Control Groups in Experimental Trial Designs Increase Expected Value to Society?

PubMed

Uyei, Jennifer; Braithwaite, R Scott

2016-01-01

Despite the benefits of the placebo-controlled trial design, it is limited by its inability to quantify total benefits and harms. Such trials, for example, are not designed to detect an intervention's placebo or nocebo effects, which if detected could alter the benefit-to-harm balance and change a decision to adopt or reject an intervention. In this article, we explore scenarios in which alternative experimental trial designs, which differ in the type of control used, influence expected value across a range of pretest assumptions and study sample sizes. We developed a decision model to compare 3 trial designs and their implications for decision making: 2-arm placebo-controlled trial ("placebo-control"), 2-arm intervention v. do nothing trial ("null-control"), and an innovative 3-arm trial design: intervention v. do nothing v. placebo trial ("novel design"). Four scenarios were explored regarding particular attributes of a hypothetical intervention: 1) all benefits and no harm, 2) no biological effect, 3) only biological effects, and 4) surreptitious harm (no biological benefit or nocebo effect). Scenario 1: When sample sizes were very small, the null-control was preferred, but as sample sizes increased, expected value of all 3 designs converged. Scenario 2: The null-control was preferred regardless of sample size when the ratio of placebo to nocebo effect was >1; otherwise, the placebo-control was preferred. Scenario 3: When sample size was very small, the placebo-control was preferred when benefits outweighed harms, but the novel design was preferred when harms outweighed benefits. Scenario 4: The placebo-control was preferred when harms outweighed placebo benefits; otherwise, preference went to the null-control. Scenarios are hypothetical, study designs have not been tested in a real-world setting, blinding is not possible in all designs, and some may argue the novel design poses ethical concerns. We identified scenarios in which alternative experimental study designs would confer greater expected value than the placebo-controlled trial design. The likelihood and prevalence of such situations warrant further study. © The Author(s) 2015.

Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2017-07-01

We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.

Preservice Science Teachers' Informal Reasoning about Socioscientific Issues: The influence of issue context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sami Topcu, Mustafa; Sadler, Troy D.; Yilmaz-Tuzun, Ozgul

2010-12-01

The purpose of the current study is to explicitly test the extent to which issue contexts affect the informal reasoning processes engaged in by individuals. In order to address the research question framing this study, we engaged 39 Turkish preservice science teachers (PSTs) in interviews designed to elicit argumentation related to multiple socioscientific scenarios. Three scenarios related to gene therapy, another three related to human cloning, and the final scenario related to global warming. The data were analyzed using an interpretive qualitative research approach. Our work builds on a framework initially proposed by Toulmin in 1958. This study has provided new evidence related to informal reasoning in the context of socioscientific issues (SSI). At the sample level, there was strong consistency in informal reasoning quality among varying socioscientific scenarios. However, finer-grained analyses indicated a greater level of variability in the informal reasoning practices of individual PSTs. These results support previous conclusions that suggest context dependence for informal reasoning related to SSI. This study provides an initial picture of the reasoning practices of preservice teachers as opposed to science learners. The results indicate that teachers, at least those in this Turkish setting, would benefit from learning experiences that support their own informal reasoning practices as well as their ability to foster development of these practices among their students. We encourage the field to continue the investigation of SSI as contexts for education particularly as it relates to the education of teachers.

Scenarios for Chemistry Teacher Training and Practice in Romania in 2030: Views of Chemistry Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Timofte, Roxana S.; Cozma, Danut G.

2017-01-01

Four scenarios regarding Chemistry teacher training and practice in Romania in 2030 were developed by using the 2x2 matrix design for scenario writing. The two driving forces taken in account for the design of scenarios were migration and consumerism. In two of the proposed scenarios teachers are trained to teach socioscientific courses at class.…

Basic Simulation Environment for Highly Customized Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Kinematic Scenarios.

PubMed

Chai, Linguo; Cai, Baigen; ShangGuan, Wei; Wang, Jian; Wang, Huashen

2017-08-23

To enhance the reality of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) kinematic simulation scenarios and to guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the verification, a four-layer CAVs kinematic simulation framework, which is composed with road network layer, vehicle operating layer, uncertainties modelling layer and demonstrating layer, is proposed in this paper. Properties of the intersections are defined to describe the road network. A target position based vehicle position updating method is designed to simulate such vehicle behaviors as lane changing and turning. Vehicle kinematic models are implemented to maintain the status of the vehicles when they are moving towards the target position. Priorities for individual vehicle control are authorized for different layers. Operation mechanisms of CAVs uncertainties, which are defined as position error and communication delay in this paper, are implemented in the simulation to enhance the reality of the simulation. A simulation platform is developed based on the proposed methodology. A comparison of simulated and theoretical vehicle delay has been analyzed to prove the validity and the creditability of the platform. The scenario of rear-end collision avoidance is conducted to verify the uncertainties operating mechanisms, and a slot-based intersections (SIs) control strategy is realized and verified in the simulation platform to show the supports of the platform to CAVs kinematic simulation and verification.

Basic Simulation Environment for Highly Customized Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Kinematic Scenarios

PubMed Central

Chai, Linguo; Cai, Baigen; ShangGuan, Wei; Wang, Jian; Wang, Huashen

2017-01-01

To enhance the reality of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) kinematic simulation scenarios and to guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the verification, a four-layer CAVs kinematic simulation framework, which is composed with road network layer, vehicle operating layer, uncertainties modelling layer and demonstrating layer, is proposed in this paper. Properties of the intersections are defined to describe the road network. A target position based vehicle position updating method is designed to simulate such vehicle behaviors as lane changing and turning. Vehicle kinematic models are implemented to maintain the status of the vehicles when they are moving towards the target position. Priorities for individual vehicle control are authorized for different layers. Operation mechanisms of CAVs uncertainties, which are defined as position error and communication delay in this paper, are implemented in the simulation to enhance the reality of the simulation. A simulation platform is developed based on the proposed methodology. A comparison of simulated and theoretical vehicle delay has been analyzed to prove the validity and the creditability of the platform. The scenario of rear-end collision avoidance is conducted to verify the uncertainties operating mechanisms, and a slot-based intersections (SIs) control strategy is realized and verified in the simulation platform to show the supports of the platform to CAVs kinematic simulation and verification. PMID:28832518

Regional allocation of biomass to U.S. energy demands under a portfolio of policy scenarios.

PubMed

Mullins, Kimberley A; Venkatesh, Aranya; Nagengast, Amy L; Kocoloski, Matt

2014-01-01

The potential for widespread use of domestically available energy resources, in conjunction with climate change concerns, suggest that biomass may be an essential component of U.S. energy systems in the near future. Cellulosic biomass in particular is anticipated to be used in increasing quantities because of policy efforts, such as federal renewable fuel standards and state renewable portfolio standards. Unfortunately, these independently designed biomass policies do not account for the fact that cellulosic biomass can equally be used for different, competing energy demands. An integrated assessment of multiple feedstocks, energy demands, and system costs is critical for making optimal decisions about a unified biomass energy strategy. This study develops a spatially explicit, best-use framework to optimally allocate cellulosic biomass feedstocks to energy demands in transportation, electricity, and residential heating sectors, while minimizing total system costs and tracking greenhouse gas emissions. Comparing biomass usage across three climate policy scenarios suggests that biomass used for space heating is a low cost emissions reduction option, while biomass for liquid fuel or for electricity becomes attractive only as emissions reduction targets or carbon prices increase. Regardless of the policy approach, study results make a strong case for national and regional coordination in policy design and compliance pathways.

Crops in silico: A community wide multi-scale computational modeling framework of plant canopies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Christensen, A.; Borkiewic, K.; Yiwen, X.; Ellis, A.; Panneerselvam, B.; Kannan, K.; Shrivastava, S.; Cox, D.; Hart, J.; Marshall-Colon, A.; Long, S.

2016-12-01

Current crop models predict a looming gap between supply and demand for primary foodstuffs over the next 100 years. While significant yield increases were achieved in major food crops during the early years of the green revolution, the current rates of yield increases are insufficient to meet future projected food demand. Furthermore, with projected reduction in arable land, decrease in water availability, and increasing impacts of climate change on future food production, innovative technologies are required to sustainably improve crop yield. To meet these challenges, we are developing Crops in silico (Cis), a biologically informed, multi-scale, computational modeling framework that can facilitate whole plant simulations of crop systems. The Cis framework is capable of linking models of gene networks, protein synthesis, metabolic pathways, physiology, growth, and development in order to investigate crop response to different climate scenarios and resource constraints. This modeling framework will provide the mechanistic details to generate testable hypotheses toward accelerating directed breeding and engineering efforts to increase future food security. A primary objective for building such a framework is to create synergy among an inter-connected community of biologists and modelers to create a realistic virtual plant. This framework advantageously casts the detailed mechanistic understanding of individual plant processes across various scales in a common scalable framework that makes use of current advances in high performance and parallel computing. We are currently designing a user friendly interface that will make this tool equally accessible to biologists and computer scientists. Critically, this framework will provide the community with much needed tools for guiding future crop breeding and engineering, understanding the emergent implications of discoveries at the molecular level for whole plant behavior, and improved prediction of plant and ecosystem responses to the environment.

Infrastructure management : Project A : developing a framework for prioritizing infrastructure improvements on critical freight corridors; Project B : developing a market based framework for freight infrastructure management.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-12-01

Fully operational highways are necessary for efficient freight movements by the trucking industry. Yet, the combination of limited funding and aging infrastructure creates a grim scenario for states, which are dependent upon the economic benefits of ...

Sensei: A Multi-Modal Framework for Assessing Stress Resiliency

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-01

Modal Framework for Assessing Stress Resiliency (May 1-31, 2013) From: Ajay Divakaran, Technical Leader Jeffrey Lubin, Senior Research Scientist...17 (May 2013): Task 3.1: Capture Behavioral Stress Markers in Real-Time in Lab Environment with graded exposure to ICT’s scenarios MAC 1-6...Modal Framework for Assessing Stress Resiliency 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER

Integrating Disparate Information

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-21

are intended to encapsulate some loosely articulated notions about the unknowns. The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework that is able to...show how each of these terms can be made precise, so that each reflects a distinct meaning. To construct our framework , we use a basic scenario upon...practice, namely our proposed framework , is the novel aspect of this paper. To appreciate all this, we require of the reader a knowledge of the calculus of

A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change.

PubMed

Gibon, Thomas; Wood, Richard; Arvesen, Anders; Bergesen, Joseph D; Suh, Sangwon; Hertwich, Edgar G

2015-09-15

Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling "technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term.

Extracting recurrent scenarios from narrative texts using a Bayesian network: application to serious occupational accidents with movement disturbance.

PubMed

Abdat, F; Leclercq, S; Cuny, X; Tissot, C

2014-09-01

A probabilistic approach has been developed to extract recurrent serious Occupational Accident with Movement Disturbance (OAMD) scenarios from narrative texts within a prevention framework. Relevant data extracted from 143 accounts was initially coded as logical combinations of generic accident factors. A Bayesian Network (BN)-based model was then built for OAMDs using these data and expert knowledge. A data clustering process was subsequently performed to group the OAMDs into similar classes from generic factor occurrence and pattern standpoints. Finally, the Most Probable Explanation (MPE) was evaluated and identified as the associated recurrent scenario for each class. Using this approach, 8 scenarios were extracted to describe 143 OAMDs in the construction and metallurgy sectors. Their recurrent nature is discussed. Probable generic factor combinations provide a fair representation of particularly serious OAMDs, as described in narrative texts. This work represents a real contribution to raising company awareness of the variety of circumstances, in which these accidents occur, to progressing in the prevention of such accidents and to developing an analysis framework dedicated to this kind of accident. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated modeling of agricultural scenarios (IMAS) to support pesticide action plans: the case of the Coulonge drinking water catchment area (SW France).

PubMed

Vernier, Françoise; Leccia-Phelpin, Odile; Lescot, Jean-Marie; Minette, Sébastien; Miralles, André; Barberis, Delphine; Scordia, Charlotte; Kuentz-Simonet, Vanessa; Tonneau, Jean-Philippe

2017-03-01

Non-point source pollution is a cause of major concern within the European Union. This is reflected in increasing public and political focus on a more sustainable use of pesticides, as well as a reduction in diffuse pollution. Climate change will likely to lead to an even more intensive use of pesticides in the future, affecting agriculture in many ways. At the same time, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and associated EU policies called for a "good" ecological and chemical status to be achieved for water bodies by the end of 2015, currently delayed to 2021-2027 due to a lack of efficiency in policies and timescale of resilience for hydrosystems, especially groundwater systems. Water managers need appropriate and user-friendly tools to design agro-environmental policies. These tools should help them to evaluate the potential impacts of mitigation measures on water resources, more clearly define protected areas, and more efficiently distribute financial incentives to farmers who agree to implement alternative practices. At present, a number of reports point out that water managers do not use appropriate information from monitoring or models to make decisions and set environmental action plans. In this paper, we propose an integrated and collaborative approach to analyzing changes in land use, farming systems, and practices and to assess their effects on agricultural pressure and pesticide transfers to waters. The integrated modeling of agricultural scenario (IMAS) framework draws on a range of data and expert knowledge available within areas where a pesticide action plan can be defined to restore the water quality, French "Grenelle law" catchment areas, French Water Development and Management Plan areas, etc. A so-called "reference scenario" represents the actual soil occupation and pesticide-spraying practices used in both conventional and organic farming. A number of alternative scenarios are then defined in cooperation with stakeholders, including socio-economic conditions for developing alternative agricultural systems or targeting mitigation measures. Our integrated assessment of these scenarios combines the calculation of spatialized environmental indicators with integrated bio-economic modeling. The latter is achieved by a combined use of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling with our own purpose-built land use generator module (Generator of Land Use version 2 (GenLU2)) and an economic model developed using General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) for cost-effectiveness assessment. This integrated approach is applied to two embedded catchment areas (total area of 360,000 ha) within the Charente river basin (SW France). Our results show that it is possible to differentiate scenarios based on their effectiveness, represented by either evolution of pressure (agro-environmental indicators) or transport into waters (pesticide concentrations). By analyzing the implementation costs borne by farmers, it is possible to identify the most cost-effective scenarios at sub-basin and other aggregated levels (WFD hydrological entities, sensitive areas). Relevant results and indicators are fed into a specifically designed database. Data warehousing is used to provide analyses and outputs at all thematic, temporal, or spatial aggregated levels, defined by the stakeholders (type of crops, herbicides, WFD areas, years), using Spatial On-Line Analytical Processing (SOLAP) tools. The aim of this approach is to allow public policy makers to make more informed and reasoned decisions when managing sensitive areas and/or implementing mitigation measures.

Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

2017-01-01

This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

Analysis of radio wave propagation for ISM 2.4 GHz Wireless Sensor Networks in inhomogeneous vegetation environments.

PubMed

Azpilicueta, Leire; López-Iturri, Peio; Aguirre, Erik; Mateo, Ignacio; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Falcone, Francisco

2014-12-10

The use of wireless networks has experienced exponential growth due to the improvements in terms of battery life and low consumption of the devices. However, it is compulsory to conduct previous radio propagation analysis when deploying a wireless sensor network. These studies are necessary to perform an estimation of the range coverage, in order to optimize the distance between devices in an actual network deployment. In this work, the radio channel characterization for ISM 2.4 GHz Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) in an inhomogeneous vegetation environment has been analyzed. This analysis allows designing environment monitoring tools based on ZigBee and WiFi where WSN and smartphones cooperate, providing rich and customized monitoring information to users in a friendly manner. The impact of topology as well as morphology of the environment is assessed by means of an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching code, to emulate the realistic operation in the framework of the scenario. Experimental results gathered from a measurement campaign conducted by deploying a ZigBee Wireless Sensor Network, are analyzed and compared with simulations in this paper. The scenario where this network is intended to operate is a combination of buildings and diverse vegetation species. To gain insight in the effects of radio propagation, a simplified vegetation model has been developed, considering the material parameters and simplified geometry embedded in the simulation scenario. An initial location-based application has been implemented in a real scenario, to test the functionality within a context aware scenario. The use of deterministic tools can aid to know the impact of the topological influence in the deployment of the optimal Wireless Sensor Network in terms of capacity, coverage and energy consumption, making the use of these systems attractive for multiple applications in inhomogeneous vegetation environments.

Integrated assessments of green infrastructure for flood mitigation to support robust decision-making for sponge city construction in an urbanized watershed.

PubMed

Mei, Chao; Liu, Jiahong; Wang, Hao; Yang, Zhiyong; Ding, Xiangyi; Shao, Weiwei

2018-10-15

Green Infrastructure (GI) has become increasingly important in urban stormwater management because of the effects of climate change and urbanization. To mitigate severe urban water-related problems, China is implementing GI at the national scale under its Sponge City Program (SCP). The SCP is currently in a pilot period, however, little attention has been paid to the cost-effectiveness of GI implementation in China. In this study, an evaluation framework based on the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) was applied to undertake integrated assessments of the development of GI for flood mitigation, to support robust decision making regarding sponge city construction in urbanized watersheds. A baseline scenario and 15 GI scenarios under six design rainfall events with recurrence intervals ranging from 2-100 years were simulated and assessed. Model simulation results confirmed the effectiveness of GI for flood mitigation. Nevertheless, even under the most beneficial scenario, the results showed the hydrological performance of GI was incapable of eliminating flooding. Analysis indicated the bioretention cell (BC) plus vegetated swale (VS) scenario was the most cost-effective GI option for unit investment under all rainfall events. However, regarding the maximum potential of the implementation areas of all GI scenarios, the porous pavement plus BC + VS strategy was considered most reasonable for the study area. Although the optimal combinations are influenced by uncertainties in both the model and the GI parameters, the main trends and key insights derived remain unaffected; therefore, the conclusions are relevant regarding sponge city construction within the study area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of SO2 emission control policy on power plants in the Yangtze River Delta, China-post-assessment of the 11th Five-Year Plan.

PubMed

Tan, Jiani; Fu, Joshua S; Huang, Kan; Yang, Cheng-En; Zhuang, Guoshun; Sun, Jian

2017-03-01

Facing the air pollution problems in China, emission control strategies have been implemented within the framework of national Five-Year Plan (FYP). According to the lack of post-assessment studies in the literature, this study assessed the effectiveness of the SO 2 emission control policies on power plants after the 11th FYP (2006-2010) by modeling emission control scenarios. The idealized emission control policy (the PS90 scenario with assumption of 90% SO 2 emission reduction from power plants) could reduce the SO 2 and SO 4 2- concentrations by about 51 and 14%, respectively, over the Yangtze River Delta region. While the actual emission control condition (the P2010 scenario based on the actual emissions from power plants in 2010) demonstrated that the actual reduction benefits were 30% of SO 2 and 9% of SO 4 2- . On the city scale, the P2010 scenario imposed positive benefits on Shanghai, Nanjing, Nantong, and Hangzhou with SO 2 reductions of about 55, 12, 30, and 21%, respectively, while an 11% increase of SO 2 concentration was found in Ningbo. The number of days exceeding China's National Ambient Air Quality Standard of Class I daily SO 2 concentration was estimated to be 75, 52, 7, 77, and 40 days for Shanghai, Nanjing, Nantong, Ningbo, and Hangzhou under the real SO 2 control condition (P2010). The numbers could be decreased by 16, 11, 2, 21, and 11% if the control effect reaches the level of the PS90 scenario. This study serves as a scientific basis to design capable enforcement of emission control strategies in China in the future national plans.

Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey S.; Cabrall, Christopher; Callantine, Todd

2013-01-01

Well prepared traffic scenarios contribute greatly to the success of controller-in-the-loop simulations. This paper describes each stage in the design process of realistic scenarios based on real-world traffic, to be used in the Airspace Operations Laboratory for simulations within the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration 1 effort. The steps from the initial analysis of real-world traffic, to the editing of individual aircraft records in the scenario file, until the final testing of the scenarios before the simulation conduct, are all described. The iterative nature of the design process and the various efforts necessary to reach the required fidelity, as well as the applied design strategies, challenges, and tools used during this process are also discussed.

Framework of sensor-based monitoring for pervasive patient care.

PubMed

Triantafyllidis, Andreas K; Koutkias, Vassilis G; Chouvarda, Ioanna; Adami, Ilia; Kouroubali, Angelina; Maglaveras, Nicos

2016-09-01

Sensor-based health systems can often become difficult to use, extend and sustain. The authors propose a framework for designing sensor-based health monitoring systems aiming to provide extensible and usable monitoring services in the scope of pervasive patient care. The authors' approach relies on a distributed system for monitoring the patient health status anytime-anywhere and detecting potential health complications, for which healthcare professionals and patients are notified accordingly. Portable or wearable sensing devices measure the patient's physiological parameters, a smart mobile device collects and analyses the sensor data, a Medical Center system receives notifications on the detected health condition, and a Health Professional Platform is used by formal caregivers in order to review the patient condition and configure monitoring schemas. A Service-oriented architecture is utilised to provide extensible functional components and interoperable interactions among the diversified system components. The framework was applied within the REMOTE ambient-assisted living project in which a prototype system was developed, utilising Bluetooth to communicate with the sensors and Web services for data exchange. A scenario of using the REMOTE system and preliminary usability results show the applicability, usefulness and virtue of our approach.

Framework of sensor-based monitoring for pervasive patient care

PubMed Central

Koutkias, Vassilis G.; Chouvarda, Ioanna; Adami, Ilia; Kouroubali, Angelina; Maglaveras, Nicos

2016-01-01

Sensor-based health systems can often become difficult to use, extend and sustain. The authors propose a framework for designing sensor-based health monitoring systems aiming to provide extensible and usable monitoring services in the scope of pervasive patient care. The authors’ approach relies on a distributed system for monitoring the patient health status anytime-anywhere and detecting potential health complications, for which healthcare professionals and patients are notified accordingly. Portable or wearable sensing devices measure the patient's physiological parameters, a smart mobile device collects and analyses the sensor data, a Medical Center system receives notifications on the detected health condition, and a Health Professional Platform is used by formal caregivers in order to review the patient condition and configure monitoring schemas. A Service-oriented architecture is utilised to provide extensible functional components and interoperable interactions among the diversified system components. The framework was applied within the REMOTE ambient-assisted living project in which a prototype system was developed, utilising Bluetooth to communicate with the sensors and Web services for data exchange. A scenario of using the REMOTE system and preliminary usability results show the applicability, usefulness and virtue of our approach. PMID:27733920

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

A framework for modeling contaminant impacts on reservoir water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeznach, Lillian C.; Jones, Christina; Matthews, Thomas; Tobiason, John E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2016-06-01

This study presents a framework for using hydrodynamic and water quality models to understand the fate and transport of potential contaminants in a reservoir and to develop appropriate emergency response and remedial actions. In the event of an emergency situation, prior detailed modeling efforts and scenario evaluations allow for an understanding of contaminant plume behavior, including maximum concentrations that could occur at the drinking water intake and contaminant travel time to the intake. A case study assessment of the Wachusett Reservoir, a major drinking water supply for metropolitan Boston, MA, provides an example of an application of the framework and how hydrodynamic and water quality models can be used to quantitatively and scientifically guide management in response to varieties of contaminant scenarios. The model CE-QUAL-W2 was used to investigate the water quality impacts of several hypothetical contaminant scenarios, including hypothetical fecal coliform input from a sewage overflow as well as an accidental railway spill of ammonium nitrate. Scenarios investigated the impacts of decay rates, season, and inter-reservoir transfers on contaminant arrival times and concentrations at the drinking water intake. The modeling study highlights the importance of a rapid operational response by managers to contain a contaminant spill in order to minimize the mass of contaminant that enters the water column, based on modeled reservoir hydrodynamics. The development and use of hydrodynamic and water quality models for surface drinking water sources subject to the potential for contaminant entry can provide valuable guidance for making decisions about emergency response and remediation actions.

The design of scenario-based training from the resilience engineering perspective: a study with grid electricians.

PubMed

Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu; Wachs, Priscila; Righi, Angela Weber; Henriqson, Eder

2014-07-01

Although scenario-based training (SBT) can be an effective means to help workers develop resilience skills, it has not yet been analyzed from the resilience engineering (RE) perspective. This study introduces a five-stage method for designing SBT from the RE view: (a) identification of resilience skills, work constraints and actions for re-designing the socio-technical system; (b) design of template scenarios, allowing the simulation of the work constraints and the use of resilience skills; (c) design of the simulation protocol, which includes briefing, simulation and debriefing; (d) implementation of both scenarios and simulation protocol; and (e) evaluation of the scenarios and simulation protocol. It is reported how the method was applied in an electricity distribution company, in order to train grid electricians. The study was framed as an application of design science research, and five research outputs are discussed: method, constructs, model of the relationships among constructs, instantiations of the method, and theory building. Concerning the last output, the operationalization of the RE perspective on three elements of SBT is presented: identification of training objectives; scenario design; and debriefing. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating impacts of climate change on future water scarcity in an intensively managed semi-arid region using a coupled model of biophysical processes and water rights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Flores, A. N.; Benner, S. G.

2017-12-01

In semiarid and arid regions where water supply is intensively managed, future water scarcity is a product of complex interactions between climate change and human activities. Evaluating future water scarcity under alternative scenarios of climate change, therefore, necessitates modeling approaches that explicitly represent the coupled biophysical and social processes responsible for the redistribution of water in these regions. At regional scales a particular challenge lies in adequately capturing not only the central tendencies of change in projections of climate change, but also the associated plausible range of variability in those projections. This study develops a framework that combines a stochastic weather generator, historical climate observations, and statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections. The method generates a large ensemble of daily climate realizations, avoiding deficiencies of using a few or mean values of individual GCM realizations. Three climate change scenario groups reflecting the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 future projections are developed. Importantly, the model explicitly captures the spatiotemporally varying irrigation activities as constrained by local water rights in a rapidly growing, semi-arid human-environment system in southwest Idaho. We use this modeling framework to project water use and scarcity patterns under the three future climate change scenarios. The model is built using the Envision alternative futures modeling framework. Climate projections for the region show future increases in both precipitation and temperature, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. The increase of temperature has a direct influence on the increase of the irrigation water use and water scarcity, while the influence of increased precipitation on water use is less clear. The predicted changes are potentially useful in identifying areas in the watershed particularly sensitive to water scarcity, the relative importance of changes in precipitation versus temperature as a driver of scarcity, and potential shortcomings of the current water management framework in the region.

On fair, effective and efficient REDD mechanism design

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

The issues surrounding 'Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation' (REDD) have become a major component of continuing negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This paper aims to address two key requirements of any potential REDD mechanism: first, the generation of measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) REDD credits; and secondly, the sustainable and efficient provision of emission reductions under a robust financing regime. To ensure the supply of MRV credits, we advocate the establishment of an 'International Emission Reference Scenario Coordination Centre' (IERSCC). The IERSCC would act as a global clearing house for harmonized data to be used in implementing reference level methodologies. It would be tasked with the collection, reporting and subsequent processing of earth observation, deforestation- and degradation driver information in a globally consistent manner. The IERSCC would also assist, coordinate and supervise the computation of national reference scenarios according to rules negotiated under the UNFCCC. To overcome the threats of "market flooding" on the one hand and insufficient economic incentives for REDD on the other hand, we suggest an 'International Investment Reserve' (IIR) as REDD financing framework. In order to distribute the resources of the IIR we propose adopting an auctioning mechanism. Auctioning not only reveals the true emission reduction costs, but might also allow for incentivizing the protection of biodiversity and socio-economic values. The introduced concepts will be vital to ensure robustness, environmental integrity and economic efficiency of the future REDD mechanism. PMID:19943927

Secure Distributed Detection under Energy Constraint in IoT-Oriented Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Guomei; Sun, Hao

2016-12-16

We study the secure distributed detection problems under energy constraint for IoT-oriented sensor networks. The conventional channel-aware encryption (CAE) is an efficient physical-layer secure distributed detection scheme in light of its energy efficiency, good scalability and robustness over diverse eavesdropping scenarios. However, in the CAE scheme, it remains an open problem of how to optimize the key thresholds for the estimated channel gain, which are used to determine the sensor's reporting action. Moreover, the CAE scheme does not jointly consider the accuracy of local detection results in determining whether to stay dormant for a sensor. To solve these problems, we first analyze the error probability and derive the optimal thresholds in the CAE scheme under a specified energy constraint. These results build a convenient mathematic framework for our further innovative design. Under this framework, we propose a hybrid secure distributed detection scheme. Our proposal can satisfy the energy constraint by keeping some sensors inactive according to the local detection confidence level, which is characterized by likelihood ratio. In the meanwhile, the security is guaranteed through randomly flipping the local decisions forwarded to the fusion center based on the channel amplitude. We further optimize the key parameters of our hybrid scheme, including two local decision thresholds and one channel comparison threshold. Performance evaluation results demonstrate that our hybrid scheme outperforms the CAE under stringent energy constraints, especially in the high signal-to-noise ratio scenario, while the security is still assured.

Application of an Environmental Decision Support System to a Water Quality Trading Program Affected by Surface Water Diversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obropta, Christopher C.; Niazi, Mehran; Kardos, Josef S.

2008-12-01

Environmental decision support systems (EDSSs) are an emerging tool used to integrate the evaluation of highly complex and interrelated physicochemical, biological, hydrological, social, and economic aspects of environmental problems. An EDSS approach is developed to address hot-spot concerns for a water quality trading program intended to implement the total maximum daily load (TMDL) for phosphorus in the Non-Tidal Passaic River Basin of New Jersey. Twenty-two wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) spread throughout the watershed are considered the major sources of phosphorus loading to the river system. Periodic surface water diversions to a major reservoir from the confluence of two key tributaries alter the natural hydrology of the watershed and must be considered in the development of a trading framework that ensures protection of water quality. An EDSS is applied that enables the selection of a water quality trading framework that protects the watershed from phosphorus-induced hot spots. The EDSS employs Simon’s (1960) three stages of the decision-making process: intelligence, design, and choice. The identification of two potential hot spots and three diversion scenarios enables the delineation of three management areas for buying and selling of phosphorus credits among WWTPs. The result shows that the most conservative option entails consideration of two possible diversion scenarios, and trading between management areas is restricted accordingly. The method described here is believed to be the first application of an EDSS to a water quality trading program that explicitly accounts for surface water diversions.

Secure Distributed Detection under Energy Constraint in IoT-Oriented Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zhang, Guomei; Sun, Hao

2016-01-01

We study the secure distributed detection problems under energy constraint for IoT-oriented sensor networks. The conventional channel-aware encryption (CAE) is an efficient physical-layer secure distributed detection scheme in light of its energy efficiency, good scalability and robustness over diverse eavesdropping scenarios. However, in the CAE scheme, it remains an open problem of how to optimize the key thresholds for the estimated channel gain, which are used to determine the sensor’s reporting action. Moreover, the CAE scheme does not jointly consider the accuracy of local detection results in determining whether to stay dormant for a sensor. To solve these problems, we first analyze the error probability and derive the optimal thresholds in the CAE scheme under a specified energy constraint. These results build a convenient mathematic framework for our further innovative design. Under this framework, we propose a hybrid secure distributed detection scheme. Our proposal can satisfy the energy constraint by keeping some sensors inactive according to the local detection confidence level, which is characterized by likelihood ratio. In the meanwhile, the security is guaranteed through randomly flipping the local decisions forwarded to the fusion center based on the channel amplitude. We further optimize the key parameters of our hybrid scheme, including two local decision thresholds and one channel comparison threshold. Performance evaluation results demonstrate that our hybrid scheme outperforms the CAE under stringent energy constraints, especially in the high signal-to-noise ratio scenario, while the security is still assured. PMID:27999282

Unsupervised Deep Hashing With Pseudo Labels for Scalable Image Retrieval.

PubMed

Zhang, Haofeng; Liu, Li; Long, Yang; Shao, Ling

2018-04-01

In order to achieve efficient similarity searching, hash functions are designed to encode images into low-dimensional binary codes with the constraint that similar features will have a short distance in the projected Hamming space. Recently, deep learning-based methods have become more popular, and outperform traditional non-deep methods. However, without label information, most state-of-the-art unsupervised deep hashing (DH) algorithms suffer from severe performance degradation for unsupervised scenarios. One of the main reasons is that the ad-hoc encoding process cannot properly capture the visual feature distribution. In this paper, we propose a novel unsupervised framework that has two main contributions: 1) we convert the unsupervised DH model into supervised by discovering pseudo labels; 2) the framework unifies likelihood maximization, mutual information maximization, and quantization error minimization so that the pseudo labels can maximumly preserve the distribution of visual features. Extensive experiments on three popular data sets demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method, which leads to significant performance improvement over the state-of-the-art unsupervised hashing algorithms.

Towards decision support for waiting lists: an operations management view.

PubMed

Vissers, J M; Van Der Bij, J D; Kusters, R J

2001-06-01

This paper considers the phenomenon of waiting lists in a healthcare setting, which is characterised by limitations on the national expenditure, to explore the potentials of an operations management perspective. A reference framework for waiting list management is described, distinguishing different levels of planning in healthcare--national, regional, hospital and process--that each contributes to the existence of waiting lists through managerial decision making. In addition, different underlying mechanisms in demand and supply are distinguished, which together explain the development of waiting lists. It is our contention that within this framework a series of situation specific models should be designed to support communication and decision making. This is illustrated by the modelling of the demand for cataract treatment in a regional setting in the south-eastern part of the Netherlands. An input-output model was developed to support decisions regarding waiting lists. The model projects the demand for treatment at a regional level and makes it possible to evaluate waiting list impacts for different scenarios to meet this demand.

Decision support for green supply chain operations by integrating dynamic simulation and LCA indicators: diaper case study.

PubMed

Adhitya, Arief; Halim, Iskandar; Srinivasan, Rajagopalan

2011-12-01

As the issue of environmental sustainability is becoming an important business factor, companies are now looking for decision support tools to assess the fuller picture of the environmental impacts associated with their manufacturing operations and supply chain (SC) activities. Lifecycle assessment (LCA) is widely used to measure the environmental consequences assignable to a product. However, it is usually limited to a high-level snapshot of the environmental implications over the product value chain without consideration of the dynamics arising from the multitiered structure and the interactions along the SC. This paper proposes a framework for green supply chain management by integrating a SC dynamic simulation and LCA indicators to evaluate both the economic and environmental impacts of various SC decisions such as inventories, distribution network configuration, and ordering policy. The advantages of this framework are demonstrated through an industrially motivated case study involving diaper production. Three distinct scenarios are evaluated to highlight how the proposed approach enables integrated decision support for green SC design and operation.

A Model-Based Approach for Bridging Virtual and Physical Sensor Nodes in a Hybrid Simulation Framework

PubMed Central

Mozumdar, Mohammad; Song, Zhen Yu; Lavagno, Luciano; Sangiovanni-Vincentelli, Alberto L.

2014-01-01

The Model Based Design (MBD) approach is a popular trend to speed up application development of embedded systems, which uses high-level abstractions to capture functional requirements in an executable manner, and which automates implementation code generation. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are an emerging very promising application area for embedded systems. However, there is a lack of tools in this area, which would allow an application developer to model a WSN application by using high level abstractions, simulate it mapped to a multi-node scenario for functional analysis, and finally use the refined model to automatically generate code for different WSN platforms. Motivated by this idea, in this paper we present a hybrid simulation framework that not only follows the MBD approach for WSN application development, but also interconnects a simulated sub-network with a physical sub-network and then allows one to co-simulate them, which is also known as Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) simulation. PMID:24960083

Mixed Integer Programming and Heuristic Scheduling for Space Communication Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheung, Kar-Ming; Lee, Charles H.

2012-01-01

We developed framework and the mathematical formulation for optimizing communication network using mixed integer programming. The design yields a system that is much smaller, in search space size, when compared to the earlier approach. Our constrained network optimization takes into account the dynamics of link performance within the network along with mission and operation requirements. A unique penalty function is introduced to transform the mixed integer programming into the more manageable problem of searching in a continuous space. The constrained optimization problem was proposed to solve in two stages: first using the heuristic Particle Swarming Optimization algorithm to get a good initial starting point, and then feeding the result into the Sequential Quadratic Programming algorithm to achieve the final optimal schedule. We demonstrate the above planning and scheduling methodology with a scenario of 20 spacecraft and 3 ground stations of a Deep Space Network site. Our approach and framework have been simple and flexible so that problems with larger number of constraints and network can be easily adapted and solved.

Trajectory optimization for lunar rover performing vertical takeoff vertical landing maneuvers in the presence of terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Lin; Wang, Kexin; Xu, Zuhua; Shao, Zhijiang; Song, Zhengyu; Biegler, Lorenz T.

2018-05-01

This study presents a trajectory optimization framework for lunar rover performing vertical takeoff vertical landing (VTVL) maneuvers in the presence of terrain using variable-thrust propulsion. First, a VTVL trajectory optimization problem with three-dimensional kinematics and dynamics model, boundary conditions, and path constraints is formulated. Then, a finite-element approach transcribes the formulated trajectory optimization problem into a nonlinear programming (NLP) problem solved by a highly efficient NLP solver. A homotopy-based backtracking strategy is applied to enhance the convergence in solving the formulated VTVL trajectory optimization problem. The optimal thrust solution typically has a "bang-bang" profile considering that bounds are imposed on the magnitude of engine thrust. An adaptive mesh refinement strategy based on a constant Hamiltonian profile is designed to address the difficulty in locating the breakpoints in the thrust profile. Four scenarios are simulated. Simulation results indicate that the proposed trajectory optimization framework has sufficient adaptability to handle VTVL missions efficiently.

Understanding Compound, Interconnected, Interacting, and Cascading Risks: A Holistic Framework.

PubMed

Pescaroli, Gianluca; Alexander, David

2018-06-15

In recent years, there has been a gradual increase in research literature on the challenges of interconnected, compound, interacting, and cascading risks. These concepts are becoming ever more central to the resilience debate. They aggregate elements of climate change adaptation, critical infrastructure protection, and societal resilience in the face of complex, high-impact events. However, despite the potential of these concepts to link together diverse disciplines, scholars and practitioners need to avoid treating them in a superficial or ambiguous manner. Overlapping uses and definitions could generate confusion and lead to the duplication of research effort. This article gives an overview of the state of the art regarding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks. It is intended to help build a coherent basis for the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The main objective is to propose a holistic framework that highlights the complementarities of the four kinds of complex risk in a manner that is designed to support the work of researchers and policymakers. This article suggests how compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks could be used, with little or no redundancy, as inputs to new analyses and decisional tools designed to support the implementation of the SFDRR. The findings can be used to improve policy recommendations and support tools for emergency and crisis management, such as scenario building and impact trees, thus contributing to the achievement of a system-wide approach to resilience. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeuland, Marc; Whittington, Dale

2014-03-01

This article presents a methodology for planning new water resources infrastructure investments and operating strategies in a world of climate change uncertainty. It combines a real options (e.g., options to defer, expand, contract, abandon, switch use, or otherwise alter a capital investment) approach with principles drawn from robust decision-making (RDM). RDM comprises a class of methods that are used to identify investment strategies that perform relatively well, compared to the alternatives, across a wide range of plausible future scenarios. Our proposed framework relies on a simulation model that includes linkages between climate change and system hydrology, combined with sensitivity analyses that explore how economic outcomes of investments in new dams vary with forecasts of changing runoff and other uncertainties. To demonstrate the framework, we consider the case of new multipurpose dams along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. We model flexibility in design and operating decisions—the selection, sizing, and sequencing of new dams, and reservoir operating rules. Results show that there is no single investment plan that performs best across a range of plausible future runoff conditions. The decision-analytic framework is then used to identify dam configurations that are both robust to poor outcomes and sufficiently flexible to capture high upside benefits if favorable future climate and hydrological conditions should arise. The approach could be extended to explore design and operating features of development and adaptation projects other than dams.

The Automatic Neuroscientist: A framework for optimizing experimental design with closed-loop real-time fMRI

PubMed Central

Lorenz, Romy; Monti, Ricardo Pio; Violante, Inês R.; Anagnostopoulos, Christoforos; Faisal, Aldo A.; Montana, Giovanni; Leech, Robert

2016-01-01

Functional neuroimaging typically explores how a particular task activates a set of brain regions. Importantly though, the same neural system can be activated by inherently different tasks. To date, there is no approach available that systematically explores whether and how distinct tasks probe the same neural system. Here, we propose and validate an alternative framework, the Automatic Neuroscientist, which turns the standard fMRI approach on its head. We use real-time fMRI in combination with modern machine-learning techniques to automatically design the optimal experiment to evoke a desired target brain state. In this work, we present two proof-of-principle studies involving perceptual stimuli. In both studies optimization algorithms of varying complexity were employed; the first involved a stochastic approximation method while the second incorporated a more sophisticated Bayesian optimization technique. In the first study, we achieved convergence for the hypothesized optimum in 11 out of 14 runs in less than 10 min. Results of the second study showed how our closed-loop framework accurately and with high efficiency estimated the underlying relationship between stimuli and neural responses for each subject in one to two runs: with each run lasting 6.3 min. Moreover, we demonstrate that using only the first run produced a reliable solution at a group-level. Supporting simulation analyses provided evidence on the robustness of the Bayesian optimization approach for scenarios with low contrast-to-noise ratio. This framework is generalizable to numerous applications, ranging from optimizing stimuli in neuroimaging pilot studies to tailoring clinical rehabilitation therapy to patients and can be used with multiple imaging modalities in humans and animals. PMID:26804778

The Automatic Neuroscientist: A framework for optimizing experimental design with closed-loop real-time fMRI.

PubMed

Lorenz, Romy; Monti, Ricardo Pio; Violante, Inês R; Anagnostopoulos, Christoforos; Faisal, Aldo A; Montana, Giovanni; Leech, Robert

2016-04-01

Functional neuroimaging typically explores how a particular task activates a set of brain regions. Importantly though, the same neural system can be activated by inherently different tasks. To date, there is no approach available that systematically explores whether and how distinct tasks probe the same neural system. Here, we propose and validate an alternative framework, the Automatic Neuroscientist, which turns the standard fMRI approach on its head. We use real-time fMRI in combination with modern machine-learning techniques to automatically design the optimal experiment to evoke a desired target brain state. In this work, we present two proof-of-principle studies involving perceptual stimuli. In both studies optimization algorithms of varying complexity were employed; the first involved a stochastic approximation method while the second incorporated a more sophisticated Bayesian optimization technique. In the first study, we achieved convergence for the hypothesized optimum in 11 out of 14 runs in less than 10 min. Results of the second study showed how our closed-loop framework accurately and with high efficiency estimated the underlying relationship between stimuli and neural responses for each subject in one to two runs: with each run lasting 6.3 min. Moreover, we demonstrate that using only the first run produced a reliable solution at a group-level. Supporting simulation analyses provided evidence on the robustness of the Bayesian optimization approach for scenarios with low contrast-to-noise ratio. This framework is generalizable to numerous applications, ranging from optimizing stimuli in neuroimaging pilot studies to tailoring clinical rehabilitation therapy to patients and can be used with multiple imaging modalities in humans and animals. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

User needs elicitation via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study on a Computed Tomography (CT) scanner.

PubMed

Pecchia, Leandro; Martin, Jennifer L; Ragozzino, Angela; Vanzanella, Carmela; Scognamiglio, Arturo; Mirarchi, Luciano; Morgan, Stephen P

2013-01-05

The rigorous elicitation of user needs is a crucial step for both medical device design and purchasing. However, user needs elicitation is often based on qualitative methods whose findings can be difficult to integrate into medical decision-making. This paper describes the application of AHP to elicit user needs for a new CT scanner for use in a public hospital. AHP was used to design a hierarchy of 12 needs for a new CT scanner, grouped into 4 homogenous categories, and to prepare a paper questionnaire to investigate the relative priorities of these. The questionnaire was completed by 5 senior clinicians working in a variety of clinical specialisations and departments in the same Italian public hospital. Although safety and performance were considered the most important issues, user needs changed according to clinical scenario. For elective surgery, the five most important needs were: spatial resolution, processing software, radiation dose, patient monitoring, and contrast medium. For emergency, the top five most important needs were: patient monitoring, radiation dose, contrast medium control, speed run, spatial resolution. AHP effectively supported user need elicitation, helping to develop an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making. User needs varied according to working scenario (elective versus emergency medicine) more than clinical specialization. This method should be considered by practitioners involved in decisions about new medical technology, whether that be during device design or before deciding whether to allocate budgets for new medical devices according to clinical functions or according to hospital department.

Asynchronous Runtimes in Action: An Introspective Framework for a Next Gen Runtime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suetterlein, Joshua D.; Landwehr, Joshua B.; Marquez, Andres

2016-05-23

One of the most critical challenges that new high performance systems face is the lack of system software support for these large scale systems. Investment on system stack components is essential in the development, debugging and optimization of the new emerging programming models. These emerging models have the promise to better utilize the vast hardware resources available in current and future systems. To aid in the development of applications and new system stacks, runtimes, as instances of their respective execution models, need to produce facilities to introspect their inner workings and allow an indepth attribution of performance bottlenecks and computationalmore » patterns. In other words, the runtime systems need to reduce their opacity to observers so that users of a novel program execution model can adapt their designs to fit the intended model usage, regardless of the layer that they are working on. This design/development loop (akin to co-design) enables synergistic opportunities across the entire computational stack. This paper presents the design and implementation of a simple “gray” box performance attribution harness running inside a fine grain runtime system: the Open Community Runtime (OCR). We showcase what such a framework can indicate regarding the runtime behavior while running at scale. To this end, we have designed a set of synthetic scenarios aimed to test the runtime at their best and worst cases. We present an analysis of the most important runtime features, properties and idiosyncrasies that will affect the development of new runtime features, algorithmic selection, and application development.« less

Framework for assessing impacts of pile-driving noise from offshore wind farm construction on a harbour seal population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thompson, Paul M., E-mail: lighthouse@abdn.ac.uk; Hastie, Gordon D., E-mail: gdh10@st-andrews.ac.uk; Nedwell, Jeremy, E-mail: Jeremy.Nedwell@subacoustech.com

2013-11-15

Offshore wind farm developments may impact protected marine mammal populations, requiring appropriate assessment under the EU Habitats Directive. We describe a framework developed to assess population level impacts of disturbance from piling noise on a protected harbour seal population in the vicinity of proposed wind farm developments in NE Scotland. Spatial patterns of seal distribution and received noise levels are integrated with available data on the potential impacts of noise to predict how many individuals are displaced or experience auditory injury. Expert judgement is used to link these impacts to changes in vital rates and applied to population models thatmore » compare population changes under baseline and construction scenarios over a 25 year period. We use published data and hypothetical piling scenarios to illustrate how the assessment framework has been used to support environmental assessments, explore the sensitivity of the framework to key assumptions, and discuss its potential application to other populations of marine mammals. -- Highlights: • We develop a framework to support Appropriate Assessment for harbour seal populations. • We assessed potential impacts of wind farm construction noise. • Data on distribution of seals and noise were used to predict effects on individuals. • Expert judgement linked these impacts to vital rates to model population change. • We explore the sensitivity of the framework to key assumptions and uncertainties.« less

Modeling Real-Time Coordination of Distributed Expertise and Event Response in NASA Mission Control Center Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onken, Jeffrey

This dissertation introduces a multidisciplinary framework for the enabling of future research and analysis of alternatives for control centers for real-time operations of safety-critical systems. The multidisciplinary framework integrates functional and computational models that describe the dynamics in fundamental concepts of previously disparate engineering and psychology research disciplines, such as group performance and processes, supervisory control, situation awareness, events and delays, and expertise. The application in this dissertation is the real-time operations within the NASA Mission Control Center in Houston, TX. This dissertation operationalizes the framework into a model and simulation, which simulates the functional and computational models in the framework according to user-configured scenarios for a NASA human-spaceflight mission. The model and simulation generates data according to the effectiveness of the mission-control team in supporting the completion of mission objectives and detecting, isolating, and recovering from anomalies. Accompanying the multidisciplinary framework is a proof of concept, which demonstrates the feasibility of such a framework. The proof of concept demonstrates that variability occurs where expected based on the models. The proof of concept also demonstrates that the data generated from the model and simulation is useful for analyzing and comparing MCC configuration alternatives because an investigator can give a diverse set of scenarios to the simulation and the output compared in detail to inform decisions about the effect of MCC configurations on mission operations performance.

A framework to analyze emissions implications of manufacturing shifts in the industrial sector through integrating bottom-up energy models and economic input-output environmental life cycle assessment models

EPA Science Inventory

Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future unc...

A framework to analyze emissions implications of manufacturing shifts in the industrial sector through integrating bottom-up energy models and economic input/output environmental life cycle assessment models

EPA Science Inventory

Future year emissions depend highly on economic, technological, societal and regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze technology development pathways and changes in consumer preferences, and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns while considering fut...

Packing Boxes into Multiple Containers Using Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menghani, Deepak; Guha, Anirban

2016-07-01

Container loading problems have been studied extensively in the literature and various analytical, heuristic and metaheuristic methods have been proposed. This paper presents two different variants of a genetic algorithm framework for the three-dimensional container loading problem for optimally loading boxes into multiple containers with constraints. The algorithms are designed so that it is easy to incorporate various constraints found in real life problems. The algorithms are tested on data of standard test cases from literature and are found to compare well with the benchmark algorithms in terms of utilization of containers. This, along with the ability to easily incorporate a wide range of practical constraints, makes them attractive for implementation in real life scenarios.

SIERRA Code Coupling Module: Arpeggio User Manual Version 4.44

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Subia, Samuel R.; Overfelt, James R.; Baur, David G.

2017-04-01

The SNL Sierra Mechanics code suite is designed to enable simulation of complex multiphysics scenarios. The code suite is composed of several specialized applications which can operate either in standalone mode or coupled with each other. Arpeggio is a supported utility that enables loose coupling of the various Sierra Mechanics applications by providing access to Framework services that facilitate the coupling. More importantly Arpeggio orchestrates the execution of applications that participate in the coupling. This document describes the various components of Arpeggio and their operability. The intent of the document is to provide a fast path for analysts interested inmore » coupled applications via simple examples of its usage.« less

Environments for online maritime simulators with cloud computing capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raicu, Gabriel; Raicu, Alexandra

2016-12-01

This paper presents the cloud computing environments, network principles and methods for graphical development in realistic naval simulation, naval robotics and virtual interactions. The aim of this approach is to achieve a good simulation quality in large networked environments using open source solutions designed for educational purposes. Realistic rendering of maritime environments requires near real-time frameworks with enhanced computing capabilities during distance interactions. E-Navigation concepts coupled with the last achievements in virtual and augmented reality will enhance the overall experience leading to new developments and innovations. We have to deal with a multiprocessing situation using advanced technologies and distributed applications using remote ship scenario and automation of ship operations.

Analyzing Uncertainty and Risk in the Management of Water Resources in the State Of Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Hauffpauir, R.; Mishra, S.; Lavenue, M.

2010-12-01

The State of Texas updates its state water plan every five years to determine the water demand required to meet its growing population. The plan compiles forecasts of water deficits from state-wide regional water planning groups as well as the water supply strategies to address these deficits. To date, the plan has adopted a deterministic framework, where reference values (e.g., best estimates, worst-case scenario) are used for key factors such as population growth, demand for water, severity of drought, water availability, etc. These key factors can, however, be affected by multiple sources of uncertainties such as - the impact of climate on surface water and groundwater availability, uncertainty in population projections, changes in sectoral composition of the economy, variability in water usage, feasibility of the permitting process, cost of implementation, etc. The objective of this study was to develop a generalized and scalable methodology for addressing uncertainty and risk in water resources management both at the regional and the local water planning level. The study proposes a framework defining the elements of an end-to-end system model that captures the key components of demand, supply and planning modules along with their associated uncertainties. The framework preserves the fundamental elements of the well-established planning process in the State of Texas, promoting an incremental and stakeholder-driven approach to adding different levels of uncertainty (and risk) into the decision-making environment. The uncertainty in the water planning process is broken down into two primary categories: demand uncertainty and supply uncertainty. Uncertainty in Demand is related to the uncertainty in population projections and the per-capita usage rates. Uncertainty in Supply, in turn, is dominated by the uncertainty in future climate conditions. Climate is represented in terms of time series of precipitation, temperature and/or surface evaporation flux for some future time period of interest, which can be obtained as outputs of global climate models (GCMs). These are then linked with hydrologic and water-availability models (WAMs) to estimate water availability for the worst drought conditions under each future climate scenario. Combining the demand scenarios with the water availability scenarios yields multiple scenarios for water shortage (or surplus). Given multiple shortage/surplus scenarios, various water management strategies can be assessed to evaluate the reliability of meeting projected deficits. These reliabilities are then used within a multi-criteria decision-framework to assess trade-offs between various water management objectives, thus helping to make more robust decisions while planning for the water needs of the future.

MoGIRE: A Model for Integrated Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynaud, A.; Leenhardt, D.

2008-12-01

Climate change and growing water needs have resulted in many parts of the world in water scarcity problems that must by managed by public authorities. Hence, policy-makers are more and more often asked to define and to implement water allocation rules between competitive users. This requires to develop new tools aiming at designing those rules for various scenarios of context (climatic, agronomic, economic). If models have been developed for each type of water use however, very few integrated frameworks link these different uses, while such an integrated approach is a relevant stake for designing regional water and land policies. The lack of such integrated models can be explained by the difficulty of integrating models developed by very different disciplines and by the problem of scale change (collecting data on large area, arbitrate between the computational tractability of models and their level of aggregation). However, modelers are more and more asked to deal with large basin scales while analyzing some policy impacts at very high detailed levels. These contradicting objectives require to develop new modeling tools. The CALVIN economically-driven optimization model developed for managing water in California is a good example of this type of framework, Draper et al. (2003). Recent reviews of the literature on integrated water management at the basin level include Letcher et al. (2007) or Cai (2008). We present here an original framework for integrated water management at the river basin scale called MoGIRE ("Modèle pour la Gestion Intégrée de la Ressource en Eau"). It is intended to optimize water use at the river basin level and to evaluate scenarios (agronomic, climatic or economic) for a better planning of agricultural and non-agricultural water use. MoGIRE includes a nodal representation of the water network. Agricultural, urban and environmental water uses are also represented using mathematical programming and econometric approaches. The model then optimizes at each date (10 days step) the allocation of water across agricultural and urban water demands in order to maximize the social surplus derived from water consumption given the constraints imposed by the water network. An application of the model is proposed for the Neste system located in South-West of France. 67 regions competing for water allocation have been identified in the Neste system. Those regions are characterized by specific cropping systems, specific climate and soil characteristics and by their connections to the water network. The model, including the nodal representation of the water network, has been coded using the algebraic modeling language GAMS. We are currently analyzing the robustness of the approach through scenario testing. Keywords : Integrated water management, optimization-simulation model, agronomic-economic modeling, river basin.

Innovation strategies in a fruit growers association impacts assessment by using combined LCA and s-LCA methodologies.

PubMed

Tecco, Nadia; Baudino, Claudio; Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana

2016-10-15

In the challenging world of territorial transformations within the agriculture, there is an increasing need for an integrated methodological framework of assessment that is able to reconcile the demand for solutions that are both economically sustainable and contribute to environmental and social improvement. This study aims to assess the introduction of innovation into agro-food systems by combining an environmental life cycle (LCA) assessment and a social life cycle assessment (s-LCA) to support the decision making process of a fruit growers co-op for the adoption of mulching and covering in raspberry farming. LCA and s-LCA have been applied independently under specific consistency requirements, selecting two scenarios to compare the impact with (1) and without (2) the innovation and then combined within a cause-effect chain. The interactions between the environment and socioeconomic components were considered within a nested frameset of business and territorial features. The total emissions from raspberry production in Scenario 1, according to the Global Warming Potential (GWP) Impact Category amounted to 2.2840kg of CO2 eq. In Scenario 2, the impact of production was associated with a GWP of 0.1682kg of CO2 eq. Social repercussions analysis from Scenario 1 compared to Scenario 2 indicate more satisfaction for working conditions and the management of climate risks. The mulching and covering, implemented within a given framework of farm activity, created conditions for the preservation of a model in which raspberry production contributes to landscape protection, the business sustainability of farms and the creation of employment. The combined use of the two methods contributes to the development of a strategy planning due to its ability to deliver, as well as specific analysis at a functional level, a wider framework for assessing the consistency of the impacts related to innovation in raspberry production. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A paradigm shift toward a consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Fant, C.; Chen, H.; Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Ejaz, Q.; Couzo, E. A.; Prinn, R. G.; Haigh, M.

2017-12-01

Estimates of physical and economic impacts of future climate change are subject to substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches of assessing climate impacts by evaluating a damage function or by multi-model comparisons based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we focus here on integrating impacts into a self-consistent coupled human and Earth system modeling framework that includes modules that represent multiple physical impacts. In a sample application we show that this framework is capable of investigating the physical impacts of climate change and socio-economic stressors. The projected climate impacts vary dramatically across the globe in a set of scenarios with global mean warming ranging between 2.4°C and 3.6°C above pre-industrial by 2100. Unabated emissions lead to substantial sea level rise, acidification that impacts the base of the oceanic food chain, air pollution that exceeds health standards by tenfold, water stress that impacts an additional 1 to 2 billion people globally and agricultural productivity that decreases substantially in many parts of the world. We compare the outcomes from these forward-looking scenarios against the common goal described by the target-driven scenario of 2°C, which results in much smaller impacts. It is challenging for large internationally coordinated exercises to respond quickly to new policy targets. We propose that a paradigm shift toward a self-consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts is needed to produce information relevant to evolving global climate policy and mitigation strategies in a timely way.

Helios: a Multi-Purpose LIDAR Simulation Framework for Research, Planning and Training of Laser Scanning Operations with Airborne, Ground-Based Mobile and Stationary Platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bechtold, S.; Höfle, B.

2016-06-01

In many technical domains of modern society, there is a growing demand for fast, precise and automatic acquisition of digital 3D models of a wide variety of physical objects and environments. Laser scanning is a popular and widely used technology to cover this demand, but it is also expensive and complex to use to its full potential. However, there might exist scenarios where the operation of a real laser scanner could be replaced by a computer simulation, in order to save time and costs. This includes scenarios like teaching and training of laser scanning, development of new scanner hardware and scanning methods, or generation of artificial scan data sets to support the development of point cloud processing and analysis algorithms. To test the feasibility of this idea, we have developed a highly flexible laser scanning simulation framework named Heidelberg LiDAR Operations Simulator (HELIOS). HELIOS is implemented as a Java library and split up into a core component and multiple extension modules. Extensible Markup Language (XML) is used to define scanner, platform and scene models and to configure the behaviour of modules. Modules were developed and implemented for (1) loading of simulation assets and configuration (i.e. 3D scene models, scanner definitions, survey descriptions etc.), (2) playback of XML survey descriptions, (3) TLS survey planning (i.e. automatic computation of recommended scanning positions) and (4) interactive real-time 3D visualization of simulated surveys. As a proof of concept, we show the results of two experiments: First, a survey planning test in a scene that was specifically created to evaluate the quality of the survey planning algorithm. Second, a simulated TLS scan of a crop field in a precision farming scenario. The results show that HELIOS fulfills its design goals.

VALUE - Validating and Integrating Downscaling Methods for Climate Change Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin; Benestad, Rasmus; Kotlarski, Sven; Huth, Radan; Hertig, Elke; Wibig, Joanna; Gutierrez, Jose

2013-04-01

Our understanding of global climate change is mainly based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) with a relatively coarse resolution. Since climate change impacts are mainly experienced on regional scales, high-resolution climate change scenarios need to be derived from GCM simulations by downscaling. Several projects have been carried out over the last years to validate the performance of statistical and dynamical downscaling, yet several aspects have not been systematically addressed: variability on sub-daily, decadal and longer time-scales, extreme events, spatial variability and inter-variable relationships. Different downscaling approaches such as dynamical downscaling, statistical downscaling and bias correction approaches have not been systematically compared. Furthermore, collaboration between different communities, in particular regional climate modellers, statistical downscalers and statisticians has been limited. To address these gaps, the EU Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) action VALUE (www.value-cost.eu) has been brought into life. VALUE is a research network with participants from currently 23 European countries running from 2012 to 2015. Its main aim is to systematically validate and develop downscaling methods for climate change research in order to improve regional climate change scenarios for use in climate impact studies. Inspired by the co-design idea of the international research initiative "future earth", stakeholders of climate change information have been involved in the definition of research questions to be addressed and are actively participating in the network. The key idea of VALUE is to identify the relevant weather and climate characteristics required as input for a wide range of impact models and to define an open framework to systematically validate these characteristics. Based on a range of benchmark data sets, in principle every downscaling method can be validated and compared with competing methods. The results of this exercise will directly provide end users with important information about the uncertainty of regional climate scenarios, and will furthermore provide the basis for further developing downscaling methods. This presentation will provide background information on VALUE and discuss the identified characteristics and the validation framework.

Development of Improved Models, Stochasticity, and Frameworks for the MIT Extensible Air Network Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clarke, John-Paul

2004-01-01

MEANS, the MIT Extensible Air Network Simulation, was created in February of 2001, and has been developed with support from NASA Ames since August of 2001. MEANS is a simulation tool which is designed to maximize fidelity without requiring data of such a low level as to preclude easy examination of alternative scenarios. To this end, MEANS is structured in a modular fashion to allow more detailed components to be brought in when desired, and left out when they would only be an impediment. Traditionally, one of the difficulties with high-fidelity models is that they require a level of detail in their data that is difficult to obtain. For analysis of past scenarios, the required data may not have been collected, or may be considered proprietary and thus difficult for independent researchers to obtain. For hypothetical scenarios, generation of the data is sufficiently difficult to be a task in and of itself. Often, simulations designed by a researcher will model exactly one element of the problem well and in detail, while assuming away other parts of the problem which are not of interest or for which data is not available. While these models are useful for working with the task at hand, they are very often not applicable to future problems. The MEAN Simulation attempts to address these problems by using a modular design which provides components of varying fidelity for each aspect of the simulation. This allows for the most accurate model for which data is available to be used. It also provides for easy analysis of sensitivity to data accuracy. This can be particularly useful in the case where accurate data is available for some subset of the situations that are to be considered. Furthermore, the ability to use the same model while examining effects on different parts of a system reduces the time spent learning the simulation, and provides for easier comparisons between changes to different parts of the system.

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Go, Susie

2006-01-01

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

Future U.S. ozone projections dependence on regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport and differences in modeling design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Lei, Hang; Wuebbles, Donald J.

2016-03-01

A consistent modeling framework with nested global and regional chemical transport models (CTMs) is used to separate and quantitatively assess the relative contributions to projections of future U.S. ozone pollution from the effects of emissions changes, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and differences in modeling design. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, a regional CTM's representation of present-day U.S. ozone pollution is notably improved, especially relative to results from the regional CTM with fixed LBCs or from the global CTM alone. This nested system of global and regional CTMs projects substantial surface ozone trends for the 2050's: 6-10 ppb decreases under the 'clean' A1B scenario and ∼15 ppb increases under the 'dirty' A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends of future ozone, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 25-60% in A1B and positive 30-45% in A1Fi. Comparatively, climate change contributes positive 10-30%, while LRT effects through changing chemical LBCs account for positive 15-20% in both scenarios, suggesting introducing dynamic LBCs could influence projections of the U.S. future ozone pollution with a magnitude comparable to effects of climate change alone. The contribution to future ozone projections due to differences in modeling design, including model formulations, emissions treatments, and other factors between the global and the nested regional CTMs, is regionally dependent, ranging from negative 20% to positive 25%. It is shown that the model discrepancies for present-day simulations between global and regional CTMs can propagate into future U.S. ozone projections systematically but nonlinearly, especially in California and the Southeast. Therefore in addition to representations of emissions change and climate change, accurate treatment of LBCs for the regional CTM is essential for projecting the future U.S. ozone pollution.

The amount of consolation compensation in road traffic accidents.

PubMed

Jou, Rong-Chang

2014-06-01

This study aimed to investigate the amount of consolation compensation that road accident perpetrators were willing to pay victims. It used 2010 statistics for general road accidents from Taiwan's National Police Agency (NPA) for further sampling and to mail questionnaires. In investigating consolation compensation, the framework of the contingent valuation method was used, and the data were collected through the design of different scenarios. In this study, five injury levels were designed to further analyse the consolation compensation price the perpetrators were willing to pay: minor injury, moderate injury, serious injury, disability, and death. The results revealed the price that many perpetrators were willing to pay was zero; however, we overcame this issue by using the Spike model. The estimated results showed that road accident perpetrators were willing to pay more consolation compensation with increased injury severity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

R2U2: Monitoring and Diagnosis of Security Threats for Unmanned Aerial Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schumann, Johann; Moosbruger, Patrick; Rozier, Kristin Y.

2015-01-01

We present R2U2, a novel framework for runtime monitoring of security properties and diagnosing of security threats on-board Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). R2U2, implemented in FPGA hardware, is a real-time, REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, UNOBTRUSIVE Unit for security threat detection. R2U2 is designed to continuously monitor inputs from the GPS and the ground control station, sensor readings, actuator outputs, and flight software status. By simultaneously monitoring and performing statistical reasoning, attack patterns and post-attack discrepancies in the UAS behavior can be detected. R2U2 uses runtime observer pairs for linear and metric temporal logics for property monitoring and Bayesian networks for diagnosis of security threats. We discuss the design and implementation that now enables R2U2 to handle security threats and present simulation results of several attack scenarios on the NASA DragonEye UAS.

The inescapable smart impact detection system (ISIS): An ubiquitous and personalized fall detector based on a distributed 'divide and conquer strategy'.

PubMed

Prado-Velasco, Manuel; del Rio-Cidoncha, Maria Gloria; Ortiz-Marin, Rafael

2008-01-01

Despite the intense research in the last decade with the aim of developing a reliable solution for fall detection in the elderly and other risk populations, it can be asserted that the diffusion of fall detectors in the geriatric practice is near null. This scenario is similar to the very scarce use of telemedicine in healthcare. The present work begins analyzing why fall detectors have not achieved to permeate the industry. That road is used to know the drawbacks of current devices and systems, besides to allow studying several important concepts underlying the principles of fall detection. A novel smart detection system based on that survey is finally briefly presented. The design of this device is founded on the experience and results obtained by an earlier device that was designed in the framework of the thesis of one of the authors.

Decision making with epistemic uncertainty under safety constraints: An application to seismic design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veneziano, D.; Agarwal, A.; Karaca, E.

2009-01-01

The problem of accounting for epistemic uncertainty in risk management decisions is conceptually straightforward, but is riddled with practical difficulties. Simple approximations are often used whereby future variations in epistemic uncertainty are ignored or worst-case scenarios are postulated. These strategies tend to produce sub-optimal decisions. We develop a general framework based on Bayesian decision theory and exemplify it for the case of seismic design of buildings. When temporal fluctuations of the epistemic uncertainties and regulatory safety constraints are included, the optimal level of seismic protection exceeds the normative level at the time of construction. Optimal Bayesian decisions do not depend on the aleatory or epistemic nature of the uncertainties, but only on the total (epistemic plus aleatory) uncertainty and how that total uncertainty varies randomly during the lifetime of the project. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

System to Detect Racial-Based Bullying through Gamification

PubMed Central

Álvarez-Bermejo, José A.; Belmonte-Ureña, Luis J.; Martos-Martínez, Africa; Barragán-Martín, Ana B.; del Mar Simón-Marquez, María

2016-01-01

Prevention and detection of bullying due to racial stigma was studied in school contexts using a system designed following “gamification” principles and integrating less usual elements, such as social interaction, augmented reality and cell phones in educational scenarios. “Grounded Theory” and “User Centered Design” were employed to explore coexistence inside and outside the classroom in terms of preferences and distrust in several areas of action and social frameworks of activity, and to direct the development of a cell phone app for early detection of school bullying scenarios. One hundred and fifty-one interviews were given at five schools selected for their high multiracial percentage and conflict. The most outstanding results were structural, that is the distribution of the classroom group by type of activity and subject being dealt with. Furthermore, in groups over 12 years of age, the relational structures in the classroom in the digital settings in which they participated with their cell phones did not reoccur, because face-to-face and virtual interaction between students with the supervision and involvement of the teacher combined to detect bullying caused by racial discrimination. PMID:27933006

Access to Mars from Earth-Moon Libration Point Orbits:. [Manifold and Direct Options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kakoi, Masaki; Howell, Kathleen C.; Folta, David

2014-01-01

This investigation is focused specifically on transfers from Earth-Moon L(sub 1)/L(sub 2) libration point orbits to Mars. Initially, the analysis is based in the circular restricted three-body problem to utilize the framework of the invariant manifolds. Various departure scenarios are compared, including arcs that leverage manifolds associated with the Sun-Earth L(sub 2) orbits as well as non-manifold trajectories. For the manifold options, ballistic transfers from Earth-Moon L(sub 2) libration point orbits to Sun-Earth L(sub 1)/L(sub 2) halo orbits are first computed. This autonomous procedure applies to both departure and arrival between the Earth-Moon and Sun-Earth systems. Departure times in the lunar cycle, amplitudes and types of libration point orbits, manifold selection, and the orientation/location of the surface of section all contribute to produce a variety of options. As the destination planet, the ephemeris position for Mars is employed throughout the analysis. The complete transfer is transitioned to the ephemeris model after the initial design phase. Results for multiple departure/arrival scenarios are compared.

Verifying Diagnostic Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindsey, Tony; Pecheur, Charles

2004-01-01

Livingstone PathFinder (LPF) is a simulation-based computer program for verifying autonomous diagnostic software. LPF is designed especially to be applied to NASA s Livingstone computer program, which implements a qualitative-model-based algorithm that diagnoses faults in a complex automated system (e.g., an exploratory robot, spacecraft, or aircraft). LPF forms a software test bed containing a Livingstone diagnosis engine, embedded in a simulated operating environment consisting of a simulator of the system to be diagnosed by Livingstone and a driver program that issues commands and faults according to a nondeterministic scenario provided by the user. LPF runs the test bed through all executions allowed by the scenario, checking for various selectable error conditions after each step. All components of the test bed are instrumented, so that execution can be single-stepped both backward and forward. The architecture of LPF is modular and includes generic interfaces to facilitate substitution of alternative versions of its different parts. Altogether, LPF provides a flexible, extensible framework for simulation-based analysis of diagnostic software; these characteristics also render it amenable to application to diagnostic programs other than Livingstone.

Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Meneely, John; Crossley, Laura H.

2016-10-01

Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.

Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sherwin, P.

1981-01-01

All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

Sample size calculations for stepped wedge and cluster randomised trials: a unified approach

PubMed Central

Hemming, Karla; Taljaard, Monica

2016-01-01

Objectives To clarify and illustrate sample size calculations for the cross-sectional stepped wedge cluster randomized trial (SW-CRT) and to present a simple approach for comparing the efficiencies of competing designs within a unified framework. Study Design and Setting We summarize design effects for the SW-CRT, the parallel cluster randomized trial (CRT), and the parallel cluster randomized trial with before and after observations (CRT-BA), assuming cross-sectional samples are selected over time. We present new formulas that enable trialists to determine the required cluster size for a given number of clusters. We illustrate by example how to implement the presented design effects and give practical guidance on the design of stepped wedge studies. Results For a fixed total cluster size, the choice of study design that provides the greatest power depends on the intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC) and the cluster size. When the ICC is small, the CRT tends to be more efficient; when the ICC is large, the SW-CRT tends to be more efficient and can serve as an alternative design when the CRT is an infeasible design. Conclusion Our unified approach allows trialists to easily compare the efficiencies of three competing designs to inform the decision about the most efficient design in a given scenario. PMID:26344808

Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina-Perez, Edmundo

It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty: climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund.

Latency-Efficient Communication in Wireless Mesh Networks under Consideration of Large Interference Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xin, Qin; Yao, Xiaolan; Engelstad, Paal E.

2010-09-01

Wireless Mesh Networking is an emerging communication paradigm to enable resilient, cost-efficient and reliable services for the future-generation wireless networks. We study here the minimum-latency communication primitive of gossiping (all-to-all communication) in multi-hop ad-hoc Wireless Mesh Networks (WMNs). Each mesh node in the WMN is initially given a message and the objective is to design a minimum-latency schedule such that each mesh node distributes its message to all other mesh nodes. Minimum-latency gossiping problem is well known to be NP-hard even for the scenario in which the topology of the WMN is known to all mesh nodes in advance. In this paper, we propose a new latency-efficient approximation scheme that can accomplish gossiping task in polynomial time units in any ad-hoc WMN under consideration of Large Interference Range (LIR), e.g., the interference range is much larger than the transmission range. To the best of our knowledge, it is first time to investigate such a scenario in ad-hoc WMNs under LIR, our algorithm allows the labels (e.g., identifiers) of the mesh nodes to be polynomially large in terms of the size of the WMN, which is the first time that the scenario of large labels has been considered in ad-hoc WMNs under LIR. Furthermore, our gossiping scheme can be considered as a framework which can be easily implied to the scenario under consideration of mobility-related issues since we assume that the mesh nodes have no knowledge on the network topology even for its neighboring mesh nodes.

Parametric Studies for Scenario Earthquakes: Site Effects and Differential Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panza, G. F.; Panza, G. F.; Romanelli, F.

2001-12-01

In presence of strong lateral heterogeneities, the generation of local surface waves and local resonance can give rise to a complicated pattern in the spatial groundshaking scenario. For any object of the built environment with dimensions greater than the characteristic length of the ground motion, different parts of its foundations can experience severe non-synchronous seismic input. In order to perform an accurate estimate of the site effects, and of differential motion, in realistic geometries, it is necessary to make a parametric study that takes into account the complex combination of the source and propagation parameters. The computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different source and structural models, allows us the construction of damage scenarios that are out of reach of stochastic models. Synthetic signals, to be used as seismic input in a subsequent engineering analysis, e.g. for the design of earthquake-resistant structures or for the estimation of differential motion, can be produced at a very low cost/benefit ratio. We illustrate the work done in the framework of a large international cooperation following the guidelines of the UNESCO IUGS IGCP Project 414 "Realistic Modeling of Seismic Input for Megacities and Large Urban Areas" and show the very recent numerical experiments carried out within the EC project "Advanced methods for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing motorway bridges" (VAB) to assess the importance of non-synchronous seismic excitation of long structures. >http://www.ictp.trieste.it/www_users/sand/projects.html

Economic assessment of home-based COPD management programs.

PubMed

Liu, Sheena Xin; Lee, Michael C; Atakhorrami, Maryam; Tatousek, Jan; McCormack, Meredith; Yung, Rex; Hart, Nicholas; White, David P

2013-12-01

Home-based exacerbation management programs have been proposed as an approach to reducing the clinical and financial burden of COPD. We demonstrate a framework to evaluate such programs in order to guide program design and performance decisions towards optimizing cost and clinical outcomes. This study models the impact of hypothetical exacerbation management programs through probabilistic Markov simulations. Patients were stratified by risk using exacerbation rates from the ECLIPSE study and expert opinion. Three scenarios were modeled, using base, worst and best case parameters to suggest potential telehealth program performance. In these scenarios, acute exacerbations could be detected early, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 60-90%. Detected acute exacerbations could be diverted to either a sub-acute pathway (12.5-50% probability), thus entirely avoiding hospitalization, or a lower cost pathway through length-of-stay reduction (14-28% reduction). For a cohort of patients without prior hospitalization, the base case telehealth scenario results in a cumulative per-patient lifetime savings of $2.9 K over ≈ 12 years. For a higher risk cohort of patients with a prior admission and 1 to 2 acute exacerbations per year, a cumulative $16K per patient was saved during the remaining ≈ 3 life-years. Acceptable prices for home-based exacerbation detection testing were highly dependent on patient risk and scenario, but ranged from $290-$1263 per month for the highest risk groups. These results suggest the economic viability of exacerbation management programs and highlight the importance of risk stratification in such programs. The presented model can further be adapted to model specific programs as trial data becomes available.

Analysis of intra-country virtual water trade strategy to alleviate water scarcity in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, M.; Yang, H.; Mousavi, J.; Schulin, R.; Binder, C. R.; Abbaspour, K. C.

2010-08-01

Increasing water scarcity has posed a major constraint to sustain food production in many parts of the world. To study the situation at the regional level, we took Iran as an example and analyzed how an intra-country "virtual water trade strategy" (VWTS) may help improve cereal production as well as alleviate the water scarcity problem. This strategy calls, in part, for the adjustment of the structure of cropping pattern (ASCP) and interregional food trade where crop yield and crop water productivity as well as local economic and social conditions are taken into account. We constructed a systematic framework to assess ASCP at the provincial level under various driving forces and constraints. A mixed-integer, multi-objective, linear optimization model was developed and solved by linear programming. Data from 1990-2004 were used to account for yearly fluctuations of water availability and food production. Five scenarios were designed aimed at maximizing the national cereal production while meeting certain levels of wheat self-sufficiency under various water and land constraints in individual provinces. The results show that under the baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of the existing water use and food policy at the national level, some ASCP scenarios could produce more wheat with less water. Based on different scenarios in ASCP, we calculated that 31% to 100% of the total wheat shortage in the deficit provinces could be supplied by the wheat surplus provinces. As a result, wheat deficit provinces would receive 3.5 billion m3 to 5.5 billion m3 of virtual water by importing wheat from surplus provinces.

Analysis of intra-country virtual water trade strategy to alleviate water scarcity in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, M.; Yang, H.; Mousavi, J.; Schulin, R.; Binder, C. R.; Abbaspour, K. C.

2010-04-01

Increasing water scarcity has posed a major constraint to sustain food production in many parts of the world. To study the situation at the regional level, we took Iran as an example and analyzed how an intra-country "virtual water trade strategy" (VWTS) may help improve cereal production as well as alleviate the water scarcity problem. This strategy calls, in part, for the adjustment of the structure of cropping pattern (ASCP) and interregional food trade where crop yield and crop water productivity as well as local economic and social conditions are taken into account. We constructed a systematic framework to assess ASCP at the provincial level under various driving forces and constraints. A mixed-integer, multi-objective, linear optimization model was developed and solved by linear programming. Data from 1990-2004 were used to account for yearly fluctuations of water availability and food production. Five scenarios were designed aimed at maximizing the national cereal production while meeting certain levels of wheat self-sufficiency under various water and land constraints in individual provinces. The results show that under the baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of the existing water use and food policy at the national level, some ASCP scenarios could produce more wheat with less water. Based on different scenarios in ASCP, we calculated that 31% to 100% of the total wheat shortage in the deficit provinces could be supplied by the wheat surplus provinces. As a result, wheat deficit provinces would receive 3.5 billion m3 to 5.5 billion m3 of virtual water by importing wheat from surplus provinces.

Finding the right compromise between productivity and environmental efficiency on high input tropical dairy farms: a case study.

PubMed

Berre, David; Blancard, Stéphane; Boussemart, Jean-Philippe; Leleu, Hervé; Tillard, Emmanuel

2014-12-15

This study focused on the trade-off between milk production and its environmental impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and nitrogen surplus in a high input tropical system. We first identified the objectives of the three main stakeholders in the dairy sector (farmers, a milk cooperative and environmentalists). The main aim of the farmers and cooperative's scenarios was to increase milk production without additional environmental deterioration but with the possibility of increasing the inputs for the cooperative. The environmentalist's objective was to reduce environmental deterioration. Second, we designed a sustainable intensification scenario combining maximization of milk production and minimization of environmental impacts. Third, the objectives for reducing the eco-inefficiency of dairy systems in Reunion Island were incorporated in a framework for activity analysis, which was used to model a technological approach with desirable and undesirable outputs. Of the four scenarios, the sustainable intensification scenario produced the best results, with a potential decrease of 238 g CO2-e per liter of milk (i.e. a reduction of 13.93% compared to the current level) and a potential 7.72 L increase in milk produced for each kg of nitrogen surplus (i.e. an increase of 16.45% compared to the current level). These results were based on the best practices observed in Reunion Island and optimized manure management, crop-livestock interactions, and production processes. Our results also showed that frontier efficiency analysis can shed new light on the challenge of developing sustainable intensification in high input tropical dairy systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Treesearch

John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

Baryon isocurvature scenario in inflationary cosmology - A particle physics model and its astrophysical implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yokoyama, Jun'ichi; Suto, Yasushi

1991-01-01

A phenomenological model to produce isocurvature baryon-number fluctuations is proposed in the framework of inflationary cosmology. The resulting spectrum of density fluctuation is very different from the conventional Harrison-Zel'dovich shape. The model, with the parameters satisfying several requirements from particle physics and cosmology, provides an appropriate initial condition for the minimal baryon isocurvature scenario of galaxy formation discussed by Peebles.

The Personal Satellite Assistant: An Internal Spacecraft Autonomous Mobile Monitor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dorais, Gregory A.; Gawdiak, Yuri; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the research and development effort at the NASA Ames Research Center to create an internal spacecraft autonomous mobile monitor capable of performing intra-vehicular sensing activities by autonomously navigating onboard the International Space Station. We describe the capabilities, mission roles, rationale, high-level functional requirements, and design challenges for an autonomous mobile monitor. The rapid prototyping design methodology used, in which five prototypes of increasing fidelity are designed, is described as well as the status of these prototypes, of which two are operational and being tested, and one is actively being designed. The physical test facilities used to perform ground testing are briefly described, including a micro-gravity test facility that permits a prototype to propel itself in 3 dimensions with 6 degrees-of-freedom as if it were in an micro-gravity environment. We also describe an overview of the autonomy framework and its components including the software simulators used in the development process. Sample mission test scenarios are also described. The paper concludes with a discussion of future and related work followed by the summary.

An activity theory perspective of how scenario-based simulations support learning: a descriptive analysis.

PubMed

Battista, Alexis

2017-01-01

The dominant frameworks for describing how simulations support learning emphasize increasing access to structured practice and the provision of feedback which are commonly associated with skills-based simulations. By contrast, studies examining student participants' experiences during scenario-based simulations suggest that learning may also occur through participation. However, studies directly examining student participation during scenario-based simulations are limited. This study examined the types of activities student participants engaged in during scenario-based simulations and then analyzed their patterns of activity to consider how participation may support learning. Drawing from Engeström's first-, second-, and third-generation activity systems analysis, an in-depth descriptive analysis was conducted. The study drew from multiple qualitative methods, namely narrative, video, and activity systems analysis, to examine student participants' activities and interaction patterns across four video-recorded simulations depicting common motivations for using scenario-based simulations (e.g., communication, critical patient management). The activity systems analysis revealed that student participants' activities encompassed three clinically relevant categories, including (a) use of physical clinical tools and artifacts, (b) social interactions, and (c) performance of structured interventions. Role assignment influenced participants' activities and the complexity of their engagement. Importantly, participants made sense of the clinical situation presented in the scenario by reflexively linking these three activities together. Specifically, student participants performed structured interventions, relying upon the use of physical tools, clinical artifacts, and social interactions together with interactions between students, standardized patients, and other simulated participants to achieve their goals. When multiple student participants were present, such as in a team-based scenario, they distributed the workload to achieve their goals. The findings suggest that student participants learned as they engaged in these scenario-based simulations when they worked to make sense of the patient's clinical presentation. The findings may provide insight into how student participants' meaning-making efforts are mediated by the cultural artifacts (e.g., physical clinical tools) they access, the social interactions they engage in, the structured interventions they perform, and the roles they are assigned. The findings also highlight the complex and emergent properties of scenario-based simulations as well as how activities are nested. Implications for learning, instructional design, and assessment are discussed.

Using humanising values to support care.

PubMed

Scammell, Janet; Tait, Desi

National responses to the Francis report recommendations call for a stronger emphasis on the service-user perspective. This article uses a client scenario to reflect on how dehumanised aspects of care can become humanised by basing our practice on a humanising values framework, and argues that the framework can, despite the system, provide a guide to support us "to do the right thing".

A unified framework for image retrieval using keyword and visual features.

PubMed

Jing, Feng; Li, Mingling; Zhang, Hong-Jiang; Zhang, Bo

2005-07-01

In this paper, a unified image retrieval framework based on both keyword annotations and visual features is proposed. In this framework, a set of statistical models are built based on visual features of a small set of manually labeled images to represent semantic concepts and used to propagate keywords to other unlabeled images. These models are updated periodically when more images implicitly labeled by users become available through relevance feedback. In this sense, the keyword models serve the function of accumulation and memorization of knowledge learned from user-provided relevance feedback. Furthermore, two sets of effective and efficient similarity measures and relevance feedback schemes are proposed for query by keyword scenario and query by image example scenario, respectively. Keyword models are combined with visual features in these schemes. In particular, a new, entropy-based active learning strategy is introduced to improve the efficiency of relevance feedback for query by keyword. Furthermore, a new algorithm is proposed to estimate the keyword features of the search concept for query by image example. It is shown to be more appropriate than two existing relevance feedback algorithms. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

A decision framework for managing risk to airports from terrorist attack.

PubMed

Shafieezadeh, Abdollah; Cha, Eun J; Ellingwood, Bruce R

2015-02-01

This article presents an asset-level security risk management framework to assist stakeholders of critical assets with allocating limited budgets for enhancing their safety and security against terrorist attack. The proposed framework models the security system of an asset, considers various threat scenarios, and models the sequential decision framework of attackers during the attack. Its novel contributions are the introduction of the notion of partial neutralization of attackers by defenders, estimation of total loss from successful, partially successful, and unsuccessful actions of attackers at various stages of an attack, and inclusion of the effects of these losses on the choices made by terrorists at various stages of the attack. The application of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example dealing with security risk management of a U.S. commercial airport, in which a set of plausible threat scenarios and risk mitigation options are considered. It is found that a combination of providing blast-resistant cargo containers and a video surveillance system on the airport perimeter fence is the best option based on minimum expected life-cycle cost considering a 10-year service period. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

An economic assessment of foot and mouth disease in Japan.

PubMed

Hayama, Y; Osada, Y; Oushiki, D; Tsutsui, T

2017-04-01

A large-scale foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Japan in 2010 caused severe economic losses for livestock and related industries. In this paper, the authors develop a clear and usable framework to estimate the economic impact of this FMD outbreak. An economic analysis is then conducted by combining this framework with an epidemiological model. The framework estimates the direct and indirect costs to livestock and related industries by applying an input-output model, as well as by addressing expenditure on disease control. The direct cost to the livestock industry was estimated at 51.2 billion Japanese yen (JPY), engendering an indirect cost to related industries of JPY 25.5 billion. The expenditure for disease control activities was estimated at JPY 8.2 billion. The total impact of the 2010 FMD epidemic was estimated at almost JPY 85 billion. Within the economic analysis, the authors evaluate several control measure scenarios: a baseline scenario, which assumes that the rapid disease spread observed in the early phase of the 2010 FMD epidemic would continue; prompt culling within 24 hours; early detection of the first case; and emergency vaccination within a radius of 10 km around the affected farms in either seven or 28 days. Prompt culling and early detection were superior from an economic point of view, reducing the total economic impact to 30% and 2% of that in the baseline scenario, respectively. Compared with these scenarios, vaccination was less cost effective. However, vaccination suppressed the speed of disease spread and shortened the duration of the epidemic, suggesting its potential effectiveness in curbing rapid disease spread in a densely populated area.

Toward a Framework for Benefit-Risk Assessment in Diagnostic Imaging: Identifying Scenario-specific Criteria.

PubMed

Agapova, Maria; Bresnahan, Brian W; Linnau, Ken F; Garrison, Louis P; Higashi, Mitchell; Kessler, Larry; Devine, Beth

2017-05-01

Diagnostic imaging has many effects and there is no common definition of value in diagnostic radiology. As benefit-risk trade-offs are rarely made explicit, it is not clear which framework is used in clinical guideline development. We describe initial steps toward the creation of a benefit-risk framework for diagnostic radiology. We performed a literature search and an online survey of physicians to identify and collect benefit-risk criteria (BRC) relevant to diagnostic imaging tests. We operationalized a process for selection of BRC with the use of four clinical use case scenarios that vary by diagnostic alternatives and clinical indication. Respondent BRC selections were compared across clinical scenarios and between radiologists and nonradiologists. Thirty-six BRC were identified and organized into three domains: (1) those that account for differences attributable only to the test or device (n = 17); (2) those that account for clinical management and provider experiences (n = 12); and (3) those that capture patient experience (n = 7). Forty-eight survey participants selected 22 criteria from the initial list in the survey (9-11 per case). Engaging ordering physicians increased the number of criteria selected in each of the four clinical scenarios presented. We developed a process for standardizing selection of BRC in guideline development. These results suggest that a process relying on elements of comparative effectiveness and the use of standardized BRC may ensure consistent examination of differences among alternatives by way of making explicit implicit trade-offs that otherwise enter the decision-making space and detract from consistency and transparency. These findings also highlight the need for multidisciplinary teams that include input from ordering physicians. Copyright © 2017 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

WaLA, a versatile model for the life cycle assessment of urban water systems: Formalism and framework for a modular approach.

PubMed

Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

2016-01-01

The emphasis on the sustainable urban water management has increased over the last decades. In this context decision makers need tools to measure and improve the environmental performance of urban water systems (UWS) and their related scenarios. In this paper, we propose a versatile model, named WaLA (Water system Life cycle Assessment), which reduces the complexity of the UWS while ensuring a good representation of water issues and fulfilling life cycle assessment (LCA) requirements. Indeed, LCAs require building UWS models, which can be tedious if several scenarios are to be compared. The WaLA model is based on a framework that uses a "generic component" representing alternately water technology units and water users, with their associated water flows, and the associated impacts due to water deprivation, emissions, operation and infrastructure. UWS scenarios can be built by inter-operating and connecting the technologies and users components in a modular and integrated way. The model calculates life cycle impacts at a monthly temporal resolution for a set of services provided to users, as defined by the scenario. It also provides the ratio of impacts to amount of services provided and useful information for UWS diagnosis or comparison of different scenarios. The model is implemented in a Matlab/Simulink interface thanks to object-oriented programming. The applicability of the model is demonstrated using a virtual case study based on available life cycle inventory data. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On Maximizing the Lifetime of Wireless Sensor Networks by Optimally Assigning Energy Supplies

PubMed Central

Asorey-Cacheda, Rafael; García-Sánchez, Antonio Javier; García-Sánchez, Felipe; García-Haro, Joan; Gonzalez-Castaño, Francisco Javier

2013-01-01

The extension of the network lifetime of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) is an important issue that has not been appropriately solved yet. This paper addresses this concern and proposes some techniques to plan an arbitrary WSN. To this end, we suggest a hierarchical network architecture, similar to realistic scenarios, where nodes with renewable energy sources (denoted as primary nodes) carry out most message delivery tasks, and nodes equipped with conventional chemical batteries (denoted as secondary nodes) are those with less communication demands. The key design issue of this network architecture is the development of a new optimization framework to calculate the optimal assignment of renewable energy supplies (primary node assignment) to maximize network lifetime, obtaining the minimum number of energy supplies and their node assignment. We also conduct a second optimization step to additionally minimize the number of packet hops between the source and the sink. In this work, we present an algorithm that approaches the results of the optimization framework, but with much faster execution speed, which is a good alternative for large-scale WSN networks. Finally, the network model, the optimization process and the designed algorithm are further evaluated and validated by means of computer simulation under realistic conditions. The results obtained are discussed comparatively. PMID:23939582

A physical framework for implementing virtual models of intracranial pressure and cerebrospinal fluid dynamics in hydrocephalus shunt testing.

PubMed

Venkataraman, Pranav; Browd, Samuel R; Lutz, Barry R

2016-09-01

OBJECTIVE The surgical placement of a shunt designed to resolve the brain's impaired ability to drain excess CSF is one of the most common treatments for hydrocephalus. The use of a dynamic testing platform is an important part of shunt testing that can faithfully reproduce the physiological environment of the implanted shunts. METHODS A simulation-based framework that serves as a proof of concept for enabling the application of virtual intracranial pressure (ICP) and CSF models to a physical shunt-testing system was engineered. This was achieved by designing hardware and software that enabled the application of dynamic model-driven inlet and outlet pressures to a shunt and the subsequent measurement of the resulting drainage rate. RESULTS A set of common physiological scenarios was simulated, including oscillations in ICP due to respiratory and cardiac cycles, changes in baseline ICP due to changes in patient posture, and transient ICP spikes caused by activities such as exercise, coughing, sneezing, and the Valsalva maneuver. The behavior of the Strata valve under a few of these physiological conditions is also demonstrated. CONCLUSIONS Testing shunts with dynamic ICP and CSF simulations can facilitate the optimization of shunts to be more failure resistant and better suited to patient physiology.

On maximizing the lifetime of Wireless Sensor Networks by optimally assigning energy supplies.

PubMed

Asorey-Cacheda, Rafael; García-Sánchez, Antonio Javier; García-Sánchez, Felipe; García-Haro, Joan; González-Castano, Francisco Javier

2013-08-09

The extension of the network lifetime of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) is an important issue that has not been appropriately solved yet. This paper addresses this concern and proposes some techniques to plan an arbitrary WSN. To this end, we suggest a hierarchical network architecture, similar to realistic scenarios, where nodes with renewable energy sources (denoted as primary nodes) carry out most message delivery tasks, and nodes equipped with conventional chemical batteries (denoted as secondary nodes) are those with less communication demands. The key design issue of this network architecture is the development of a new optimization framework to calculate the optimal assignment of renewable energy supplies (primary node assignment) to maximize network lifetime, obtaining the minimum number of energy supplies and their node assignment. We also conduct a second optimization step to additionally minimize the number of packet hops between the source and the sink. In this work, we present an algorithm that approaches the results of the optimization framework, but with much faster execution speed, which is a good alternative for large-scale WSN networks. Finally, the network model, the optimization process and the designed algorithm are further evaluated and validated by means of computer simulation under realistic conditions. The results obtained are discussed comparatively.

Pathways of Understanding: the Interactions of Humanity and Global Environmental Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobson, Harold K.; Katzenberger, John; Lousma, Jack; Mooney, Harold A.; Moss, Richard H.; Kuhn, William; Luterbacher, Urs; Wiegandt, Ellen

1992-01-01

How humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change is explored. Recognizing the impact human activities have on the environment and responding to the need to document the interactions among human activities, the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of 12 scientists to develop a framework illustrating the key human systems that contribute to global change. This framework, called the Social Process Diagram, will help natural and social scientists, educators, resource managers and policy makers envision and analyze how human systems interact among themselves and with the natural system. The Social Process Diagram consists of the following blocks that constitute the Diagram's structural framework: (1) fund of knowledge and experience; (2) preferences and expectations; (3) factors of production and technology; (4) population and social structure; (5) economic systems; (6) political systems and institutions; and (7) global scale environmental processes. To demonstrate potential ways the Diagram can be used, this document includes 3 hypothetical scenarios of global change issues: global warming and sea level rise; the environmental impact of human population migration; and energy and the environment. These scenarios demonstrate the Diagram's usefulness for visualizing specific processes that might be studied to evaluate a particular global change issues. The scenario also shows that interesting and unanticipated questions may emerge as links are explored between categories on the Diagram.

Understanding the Dynamics of Socio-Hydrological Environment: a Conceptual Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woyessa, Y.; Welderufael, W.; Edossa, D.

2011-12-01

Human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threaten to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the change of ecosystems under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting land-use changes. Recently the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. A conceptual framework is being developed which integrates climate change scenarios and the human dimension of land use decision into a hydrological model in order to assess its impacts on the socio-hydrological dynamics of a river basin. The following figures present the framework for the analysis and modelling of the socio-hydrological dynamics. Keywords: climate change, land use, river basin

Effects of Governance on Availability of Land for Agriculture and Conservation in Brazil.

PubMed

Sparovek, Gerd; Barretto, Alberto Giaroli de Oliveira Pereira; Matsumoto, Marcelo; Berndes, Göran

2015-09-01

The 2012 revision of the Brazilian Forest Act changed the relative importance of private and public governance for nature conservation and agricultural production. We present a spatially explicit land-use model for Brazilian agricultural production and nature conservation that considers the spatial distribution of agricultural land suitability, technological and management options, legal command, and control frameworks including the Atlantic Forest Law, the revised Forest Act, and the Amazonian land-titling, "Terra Legal," and also market-driven land use regulations. The model is used to analyze land use allocation under three scenarios with varying priorities among agricultural production and environmental protection objectives. In all scenarios, the legal command and control frameworks were the most important determinants of conservation outcomes, protecting at least 80% of the existing natural vegetation. Situations where such frameworks are not expected to be effective can be identified and targeted for additional conservation (beyond legal requirements) through voluntary actions or self-regulation in response to markets. All scenarios allow for a substantial increase in crop production, using an area 1.5-2.7 times the current cropland area, with much of new cropland occurring on current pastureland. Current public arrangements that promote conservation can, in conjunction with voluntary schemes on private lands where conversion to agriculture is favored, provide important additional nature conservation without conflicting with national agricultural production objectives.

[Analyzing the impact of decisions in the scope of long term care by fuzzy cognitive maps, Spain].

PubMed

Gutiérrez Moya, Ester; González Camacho, M Carmen; Salmerón Silvera, Jose Luis

2012-12-01

System for Autonomy and Care for Dependency (Spanish acronym SAAD) was created to provide a framework for the protection of dependent people. The priority established by law on benefits in kind over cash benefits, together with the efficient management of public resources provided economic returns for the SAAD, such as employment generation. The variables that influence the implementation of the SAAD are extremely complex and dynamic, and there are multiple relationships between them. The aim of this paper is to analyze the problem of satisfying a growing demand for protection, at minimum cost, and reaps the economic returns using fuzzy logic (fuzzy cognitive map). This technique is designed as a tool for decision-making in this area, to analyze the evolution of causal variables to a state of equilibrium. To do this, we have developed 4 scenarios (E1: Ageing, E2: Ageing and benefits in kind, E3: Ageing and cash benefits, E4: Ageing and cash benefit for care in the family), to analyze the evolution of variables, especially public expenditure and employment. Among the main results are: ageing is critical for the increased spending in all scenarios, but only in E1 and E2 is generated employment, residential care is not altered, even in E2; Telecare increases in all scenarios, and the cash benefit for personal attendant increases in E1 and E2.

Preliminary Design of ArchE: A Software Architecture Design Assistant

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-01

This report presents a procedure for moving from a set of quality attribute scenarios to an architecture design that satisfies those scenarios. This...procedure is embodied in a preliminary design for an architecture design assistant named ArchE (Architecture Expert), which will be implemented on a

Design and simulation of control algorithms for stored energy and plasma current in non-inductive scenarios on NSTX-U

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, Mark; Andre, Robert; Gates, David; Gerhardt, Stefan; Menard, Jonathan; Poli, Francesca

2015-11-01

One of the major goals of NSTX-U is to demonstrate non-inductive operation. To facilitate this and other program goals, the center stack has been upgraded and a second neutral beam line has been added with three sources aimed more tangentially to provide higher current drive efficiency and the ability to shape the current drive profile. While non-inductive start-up and ramp-up scenarios are being developed, initial non-inductive studies will likely rely on clamping the Ohmic coil current after the plasma current has been established inductively. In this work the ability to maintain control of stored energy and plasma current once the Ohmic coil has been clamped is explored. The six neutral beam sources and the mid-plane outer gap of the plasma are considered as actuators. System identification is done using TRANSP simulations in which the actuators are modulated around a reference shot. The resulting reduced model is used to design an optimal control law with anti-windup and a recently developed framework for closed loop simulations in TRANSP is used to test the control. Limitations due to actuator saturation are assessed and robustness to beam modulation, changes in the plasma density and confinement, and changes in density and temperature profile shapes are studied. Supported by US DOE contract DE-AC02-09CH11466.

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

Application of a web-based Decision Support System in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2013-04-01

Increasingly, risk information is widely available with the help of advanced technologies such as earth observation satellites, global positioning technologies, coupled with hazard modeling and analysis, and geographical information systems (GIS). Even though it exists, no effort will be put into action if it is not properly presented to the decision makers. These information need to be communicated clearly and show its usefulness so that people can make better informed decision. Therefore, communicating available risk information has become an important challenge and decision support systems have been one of the significant approaches which can help not only in presenting risk information to the decision makers but also in making efficient decisions while reducing human resources and time needed. In this study, the conceptual framework of an internet-based decision support system is presented to highlight its importance role in risk management framework and how it can be applied in case study areas chosen. The main purpose of the proposed system is to facilitate the available risk information in risk reduction by taking into account of the changes in climate, land use and socio-economic along with the risk scenarios. It allows the users to formulate, compare and select risk reduction scenarios (mainly for floods and landslides) through an enhanced participatory platform with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the decision making process. It is based on the three-tier (client-server) architecture which integrates web-GIS plus DSS functionalities together with cost benefit analysis and other supporting tools. Embedding web-GIS provides its end users to make better planning and informed decisions referenced to a geographical location, which is the one of the essential factors in disaster risk reduction programs. Different risk reduction measures of a specific area (local scale) will be evaluated using this web-GIS tool, available risk scenarios obtained from Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) model and the knowledge collected from experts. The visualization of the risk reduction scenarios can also be shared among the users on the web to support the on-line participatory process. In addition, cost-benefit ratios of the different risk reduction scenarios can be prepared in order to serve as inputs for high-level decision makers. The most appropriate risk reduction scenarios will be chosen using Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method by weighting different parameters according to the preferences and criteria defined by the users. The role of public participation has been changing from one-way communication between authorities, experts, stakeholders and citizens towards more intensive two-way interaction. Involving the affected public and interest groups can enhance the level of legitimacy, transparency, and confidence in the decision making process. Due to its important part in decision making, online participatory tool is included in the DSS in order to allow the involved stakeholders interactively in risk reduction and be aware of the existing vulnerability conditions of the community. Moreover, it aims to achieve a more transparent and better informed decision-making process. The system is under in progress and the first tools implemented will be presented showing the wide possibilities of new web technologies which can have a great impact on the decision making process. It will be applied in four pilot areas in Europe: French Alps, North Eastern Italy, Romania and Poland. Nevertheless, the framework will be designed and implemented in a way to be applicable in any other regions.

Coevolutionary Free Lunches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolpert, David H.; Macready, William G.

2005-01-01

Recent work on the foundations of optimization has begun to uncover its underlying rich structure. In particular, the "No Free Lunch" (NFL) theorems [WM97] state that any two algorithms are equivalent when their performance is averaged across all possible problems. This highlights the need for exploiting problem-specific knowledge to achieve better than random performance. In this paper we present a general framework covering most search scenarios. In addition to the optimization scenarios addressed in the NFL results, this framework covers multi-armed bandit problems and evolution of multiple co-evolving agents. As a particular instance of the latter, it covers "self-play" problems. In these problems the agents work together to produce a champion, who then engages one or more antagonists in a subsequent multi-player game In contrast to the traditional optimization case where the NFL results hold, we show that in self-play there are free lunches: in coevolution some algorithms have better performance than other algorithms, averaged across all possible problems. However in the typical coevolutionary scenarios encountered in biology, where there is no champion, NFL still holds.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Complexity: A Model-Based Scenario Approach to Supporting Integrated Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Gupta, H.; Wagener, T.; Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H.; Springer, E.

2007-12-01

Some of the most challenging issues facing contemporary water resources management are those typified by complex coupled human-environmental systems with poorly characterized uncertainties. In other words, major decisions regarding water resources have to be made in the face of substantial uncertainty and complexity. It has been suggested that integrated models can be used to coherently assemble information from a broad set of domains, and can therefore serve as an effective means for tackling the complexity of environmental systems. Further, well-conceived scenarios can effectively inform decision making, particularly when high complexity and poorly characterized uncertainties make the problem intractable via traditional uncertainty analysis methods. This presentation discusses the integrated modeling framework adopted by SAHRA, an NSF Science & Technology Center, to investigate stakeholder-driven water sustainability issues within the semi-arid southwestern US. The multi-disciplinary, multi-resolution modeling framework incorporates a formal scenario approach to analyze the impacts of plausible (albeit uncertain) alternative futures to support adaptive management of water resources systems. Some of the major challenges involved in, and lessons learned from, this effort will be discussed.

Real-time reservoir operation considering non-stationary inflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, J.; Xu, W.; Cai, X.; Wang, Z.

2011-12-01

Stationarity of inflow has been a basic assumption for reservoir operation rule design, which is now facing challenges due to climate change and human interferences. This paper proposes a modeling framework to incorporate non-stationary inflow prediction for optimizing the hedging operation rule of large reservoirs with multiple-year flow regulation capacity. A multi-stage optimization model is formulated and a solution algorithm based on the optimality conditions is developed to incorporate non-stationary annual inflow prediction through a rolling, dynamic framework that updates the prediction from period to period and adopt the updated prediction in reservoir operation decision. The prediction model is ARIMA(4,1,0), in which parameter 4 stands for the order of autoregressive, 1 represents a linear trend, and 0 is the order of moving average. The modeling framework and solution algorithm is applied to the Miyun reservoir in China, determining a yearly operating schedule during the period from 1996 to 2009, during which there was a significant declining trend of reservoir inflow. Different operation policy scenarios are modeled, including standard operation policy (SOP, matching the current demand as much as possible), hedging rule (i.e., leaving a certain amount of water for future to avoid large risk of water deficit) with forecast from ARIMA (HR-1), hedging (HR) with perfect forecast (HR-2 ). Compared to the results of these scenarios to that of the actual reservoir operation (AO), the utility of the reservoir operation under HR-1 is 3.0% lower than HR-2, but 3.7% higher than the AO and 14.4% higher than SOP. Note that the utility under AO is 10.3% higher than that under SOP, which shows that a certain level of hedging under some inflow prediction or forecast was used in the real-world operation. Moreover, the impacts of discount rate and forecast uncertainty level on the operation will be discussed.

A Biophysical Modeling Framework for Assessing the Environmental Impact of Biofuel Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Izaurradle, C.; Manowitz, D.; West, T. O.; Post, W. M.; Thomson, A. M.; Nichols, J.; Bandaru, V.; Williams, J. R.

2009-12-01

Long-term sustainability of a biofuel economy necessitates environmentally friendly biofuel production systems. We describe a biophysical modeling framework developed to understand and quantify the environmental value and impact (e.g. water balance, nutrients balance, carbon balance, and soil quality) of different biomass cropping systems. This modeling framework consists of three major components: 1) a Geographic Information System (GIS) based data processing system, 2) a spatially-explicit biophysical modeling approach, and 3) a user friendly information distribution system. First, we developed a GIS to manage the large amount of geospatial data (e.g. climate, land use, soil, and hydrograhy) and extract input information for the biophysical model. Second, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) biophysical model is used to predict the impact of various cropping systems and management intensities on productivity, water balance, and biogeochemical variables. Finally, a geo-database is developed to distribute the results of ecosystem service variables (e.g. net primary productivity, soil carbon balance, soil erosion, nitrogen and phosphorus losses, and N2O fluxes) simulated by EPIC for each spatial modeling unit online using PostgreSQL. We applied this framework in a Regional Intensive Management Area (RIMA) of 9 counties in Michigan. A total of 4,833 spatial units with relatively homogeneous biophysical properties were derived using SSURGO, Crop Data Layer, County, and 10-digit watershed boundaries. For each unit, EPIC was executed from 1980 to 2003 under 54 cropping scenarios (eg. corn, switchgrass, and hybrid poplar). The simulation results were compared with historical crop yields from USDA NASS. Spatial mapping of the results show high variability among different cropping scenarios in terms of the simulated ecosystem services variables. Overall, the framework developed in this study enables the incorporation of environmental factors into economic and life-cycle analysis in order to optimize biomass cropping production scenarios.

Sketchy Rendering for Information Visualization.

PubMed

Wood, J; Isenberg, P; Isenberg, T; Dykes, J; Boukhelifa, N; Slingsby, A

2012-12-01

We present and evaluate a framework for constructing sketchy style information visualizations that mimic data graphics drawn by hand. We provide an alternative renderer for the Processing graphics environment that redefines core drawing primitives including line, polygon and ellipse rendering. These primitives allow higher-level graphical features such as bar charts, line charts, treemaps and node-link diagrams to be drawn in a sketchy style with a specified degree of sketchiness. The framework is designed to be easily integrated into existing visualization implementations with minimal programming modification or design effort. We show examples of use for statistical graphics, conveying spatial imprecision and for enhancing aesthetic and narrative qualities of visualization. We evaluate user perception of sketchiness of areal features through a series of stimulus-response tests in order to assess users' ability to place sketchiness on a ratio scale, and to estimate area. Results suggest relative area judgment is compromised by sketchy rendering and that its influence is dependent on the shape being rendered. They show that degree of sketchiness may be judged on an ordinal scale but that its judgement varies strongly between individuals. We evaluate higher-level impacts of sketchiness through user testing of scenarios that encourage user engagement with data visualization and willingness to critique visualization design. Results suggest that where a visualization is clearly sketchy, engagement may be increased and that attitudes to participating in visualization annotation are more positive. The results of our work have implications for effective information visualization design that go beyond the traditional role of sketching as a tool for prototyping or its use for an indication of general uncertainty.

Projection of U.S. forest sector carbon sequestration under U.S. and global timber market and wood energy consumption scenarios, 2010-2060

Treesearch

Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

2012-01-01

This study provides a modeling framework to examine change over time in U.S. forest sector carbon inventory (in U.S. timberland tree biomass and harvested wood products) for alternative projections of U.S. and global timber markets, including wood energy consumption, based on established IPCC/RPA scenarios. Results indicated that the U.S. forest sector’s projected...

An index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management in a changing climate.

PubMed

Kim, Yeonjoo; Chung, Eun-Sung

2014-03-01

This study developed an index-based robust decision making framework for watershed management dealing with water quantity and quality issues in a changing climate. It consists of two parts of management alternative development and analysis. The first part for alternative development consists of six steps: 1) to understand the watershed components and process using HSPF model, 2) to identify the spatial vulnerability ranking using two indices: potential streamflow depletion (PSD) and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD), 3) to quantify the residents' preferences on water management demands and calculate the watershed evaluation index which is the weighted combinations of PSD and PWQD, 4) to set the quantitative targets for water quantity and quality, 5) to develop a list of feasible alternatives and 6) to eliminate the unacceptable alternatives. The second part for alternative analysis has three steps: 7) to analyze all selected alternatives with a hydrologic simulation model considering various climate change scenarios, 8) to quantify the alternative evaluation index including social and hydrologic criteria with utilizing multi-criteria decision analysis methods and 9) to prioritize all options based on a minimax regret strategy for robust decision. This framework considers the uncertainty inherent in climate models and climate change scenarios with utilizing the minimax regret strategy, a decision making strategy under deep uncertainty and thus this procedure derives the robust prioritization based on the multiple utilities of alternatives from various scenarios. In this study, the proposed procedure was applied to the Korean urban watershed, which has suffered from streamflow depletion and water quality deterioration. Our application shows that the framework provides a useful watershed management tool for incorporating quantitative and qualitative information into the evaluation of various policies with regard to water resource planning and management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A surgical simulation curriculum for senior medical students based on TeamSTEPPS.

PubMed

Meier, Andreas H; Boehler, Maggie L; McDowell, Chris M; Schwind, Cathy; Markwell, Steve; Roberts, Nicole K; Sanfey, Hilary

2012-08-01

To investigate whether the existing Team Strategies and Tools to Enhance Performance and Patient Safety (TeamSTEPPS) curriculum can effectively teach senior medical students team skills. DESIGN Single-group preintervention and postintervention study. We integrated a TeamSTEPPS module into our existing resident readiness elective. The curriculum included interactive didactic sessions, discussion groups, role-plays, and videotaped immersive simulation scenarios. Improvement of self-assessment scores, multiple-choice examination scores, and performance ratings of videotaped simulation scenarios before and after intervention. The videos were rated by masked reviewers on the basis of a global rating instrument (TeamSTEPPS) and a more detailed nontechnical skills evaluation tool(NOTECHS). Seventeen students participated and completed the study. The self-evaluation scores improved from 12.76 to 16.06 (P < .001). The increase was significant for all of the TeamSTEPPS competencies and highest for leadership skills (from 2.2 to 3.2; P < .001). The multiple-choice score rose from 84.9% to 94.1% (P < .01). The postintervention video ratings were significantly higher for both instruments (TeamSTEPPS, from 2.99 to 3.56; P < .01; and NOTECHS, from 4.07 to 4.59; P < .001). The curriculum led to improved self-evaluation and multiple-choice scores as well as improved team skills during simulated immersive patient encounters. The TeamSTEPPS framework may be suitable for teaching medical students teamwork concepts and improving their competencies. Larger studies using this framework should be considered to further evaluate the generalizability of our results and the effectiveness of TeamSTEPPS for medical students.

Proposal of a New Adverse Event Classification by the Society of Interventional Radiology Standards of Practice Committee.

PubMed

Khalilzadeh, Omid; Baerlocher, Mark O; Shyn, Paul B; Connolly, Bairbre L; Devane, A Michael; Morris, Christopher S; Cohen, Alan M; Midia, Mehran; Thornton, Raymond H; Gross, Kathleen; Caplin, Drew M; Aeron, Gunjan; Misra, Sanjay; Patel, Nilesh H; Walker, T Gregory; Martinez-Salazar, Gloria; Silberzweig, James E; Nikolic, Boris

2017-10-01

To develop a new adverse event (AE) classification for the interventional radiology (IR) procedures and evaluate its clinical, research, and educational value compared with the existing Society of Interventional Radiology (SIR) classification via an SIR member survey. A new AE classification was developed by members of the Standards of Practice Committee of the SIR. Subsequently, a survey was created by a group of 18 members from the SIR Standards of Practice Committee and Service Lines. Twelve clinical AE case scenarios were generated that encompassed a broad spectrum of IR procedures and potential AEs. Survey questions were designed to evaluate the following domains: educational and research values, accountability for intraprocedural challenges, consistency of AE reporting, unambiguity, and potential for incorporation into existing quality-assurance framework. For each AE scenario, the survey participants were instructed to answer questions about the proposed and existing SIR classifications. SIR members were invited via online survey links, and 68 members participated among 140 surveyed. Answers on new and existing classifications were evaluated and compared statistically. Overall comparison between the two surveys was performed by generalized linear modeling. The proposed AE classification received superior evaluations in terms of consistency of reporting (P < .05) and potential for incorporation into existing quality-assurance framework (P < .05). Respondents gave a higher overall rating to the educational and research value of the new compared with the existing classification (P < .05). This study proposed an AE classification system that outperformed the existing SIR classification in the studied domains. Copyright © 2017 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Resistance vs resilience to Alzheimer disease: Clarifying terminology for preclinical studies.

PubMed

Arenaza-Urquijo, Eider M; Vemuri, Prashanthi

2018-04-10

Preventing or delaying Alzheimer disease (AD) through lifestyle interventions will come from a better understanding of the mechanistic underpinnings of (1) why a significant proportion of elderly remain cognitively normal with AD pathologies (ADP), i.e., amyloid or tau; and (2) why some elderly individuals do not have significant ADP. In the last decades, concepts such as brain reserve, cognitive reserve, and more recently brain maintenance have been proposed along with more general notions such as (neuro)protection and compensation. It is currently unclear how to effectively apply these concepts in the new field of preclinical AD specifically separating the 2 distinct mechanisms of coping with pathology vs avoiding pathology. We propose a simplistic conceptual framework that builds on existing concepts using the nomenclature of resistance in the context of avoiding pathology, i.e., remaining cognitively normal without significant ADP, and resilience in the context of coping with pathology, i.e., remaining cognitively normal despite significant ADP. In the context of preclinical AD studies, we (1) define these concepts and provide recommendations (and common scenarios) for their use; (2) discuss how to employ this terminology in the context of investigating mechanisms and factors; (3) highlight the complementarity and clarity they provide to existing concepts; and (4) discuss different study designs and methodologies. The application of the proposed framework for framing hypotheses, study design, and interpretation of results and mechanisms can provide a consistent framework and nomenclature for researchers to reach consensus on identifying factors that may prevent ADP or delay the onset of cognitive impairment. © 2018 American Academy of Neurology.

Toward improved design of check dam systems: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Debasish; Galelli, Stefano; Tang, Honglei; Ran, Qihua

2018-04-01

Check dams are one of the most common strategies for controlling sediment transport in erosion prone areas, along with soil and water conservation measures. However, existing mathematical models that simulate sediment production and delivery are often unable to simulate how the storage capacity of check dams varies with time. To explicitly account for this process-and to support the design of check dam systems-we developed a modelling framework consisting of two components, namely (1) the spatially distributed Soil Erosion and Sediment Delivery Model (WaTEM/SEDEM), and (2) a network-based model of check dam storage dynamics. The two models are run sequentially, with the second model receiving the initial sediment input to check dams from WaTEM/SEDEM. The framework is first applied to Shejiagou catchment, a 4.26 km2 area located in the Loess Plateau, China, where we study the effect of the existing check dam system on sediment dynamics. Results show that the deployment of check dams altered significantly the sediment delivery ratio of the catchment. Furthermore, the network-based model reveals a large variability in the life expectancy of check dams and abrupt changes in their filling rates. The application of the framework to six alternative check dam deployment scenarios is then used to illustrate its usefulness for planning purposes, and to derive some insights on the effect of key decision variables, such as the number, size, and site location of check dams. Simulation results suggest that better performance-in terms of life expectancy and sediment delivery ratio-could have been achieved with an alternative deployment strategy.

A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: The case of the US water supply system

Treesearch

Romano Foti; Jorge A. Ramirez; Thomas C. Brown

2014-01-01

We introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climatemodels examined, the US Southwest including California and...

Threat detection of liquid explosives and precursors from their x-ray scattering pattern using energy dispersive detector technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kehres, Jan; Lyksborg, Mark; Olsen, Ulrik L.

2017-09-01

Energy dispersive X-ray diffraction (EDXRD) can be applied for identification of liquid threats in luggage scanning in security applications. To define the instrumental design, the framework for data reduction and analysis and test the performance of the threat detection in various scenarios, a flexible laboratory EDXRD test setup was build. A data set of overall 570 EDXRD spectra has been acquired for training and testing of threat identification algorithms. The EDXRD data was acquired with limited count statistics and at multiple detector angles and merged after correction and normalization. Initial testing of the threat detection algorithms with this data set indicate the feasibility of detection levels of > 95 % true positive with < 6 % false positive alarms.

Percolation of localized attack on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Shuai; Huang, Xuqing; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

2015-02-01

The robustness of complex networks against node failure and malicious attack has been of interest for decades, while most of the research has focused on random attack or hub-targeted attack. In many real-world scenarios, however, attacks are neither random nor hub-targeted, but localized, where a group of neighboring nodes in a network are attacked and fail. In this paper we develop a percolation framework to analytically and numerically study the robustness of complex networks against such localized attack. In particular, we investigate this robustness in Erdős-Rényi networks, random-regular networks, and scale-free networks. Our results provide insight into how to better protect networks, enhance cybersecurity, and facilitate the design of more robust infrastructures.

Influence of camera parameters on the quality of mobile 3D capture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiev, Mihail; Boev, Atanas; Gotchev, Atanas; Hannuksela, Miska

2010-01-01

We investigate the effect of camera de-calibration on the quality of depth estimation. Dense depth map is a format particularly suitable for mobile 3D capture (scalable and screen independent). However, in real-world scenario cameras might move (vibrations, temp. bend) form their designated positions. For experiments, we create a test framework, described in the paper. We investigate how mechanical changes will affect different (4) stereo-matching algorithms. We also assess how different geometric corrections (none, motion compensation-like, full rectification) will affect the estimation quality (how much offset can be still compensated with "crop" over a larger CCD). Finally, we show how estimated camera pose change (E) relates with stereo-matching, which can be used for "rectification quality" measure.

Research on the framework and key technologies of panoramic visualization for smart distribution network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Jian; Sheng, Wanxing; Lin, Tao; Lv, Guangxian

2018-05-01

Nowadays, the smart distribution network has made tremendous progress, and the business visualization becomes even more significant and indispensable. Based on the summarization of traditional visualization technologies and demands of smart distribution network, a panoramic visualization application is proposed in this paper. The overall architecture, integrated architecture and service architecture of panoramic visualization application is firstly presented. Then, the architecture design and main functions of panoramic visualization system are elaborated in depth. In addition, the key technologies related to the application is discussed briefly. At last, two typical visualization scenarios in smart distribution network, which are risk warning and fault self-healing, proves that the panoramic visualization application is valuable for the operation and maintenance of the distribution network.

Activity recognition using dynamic multiple sensor fusion in body sensor networks.

PubMed

Gao, Lei; Bourke, Alan K; Nelson, John

2012-01-01

Multiple sensor fusion is a main research direction for activity recognition. However, there are two challenges in those systems: the energy consumption due to the wireless transmission and the classifier design because of the dynamic feature vector. This paper proposes a multi-sensor fusion framework, which consists of the sensor selection module and the hierarchical classifier. The sensor selection module adopts the convex optimization to select the sensor subset in real time. The hierarchical classifier combines the Decision Tree classifier with the Naïve Bayes classifier. The dataset collected from 8 subjects, who performed 8 scenario activities, was used to evaluate the proposed system. The results show that the proposed system can obviously reduce the energy consumption while guaranteeing the recognition accuracy.

Event-based design tool for construction site erosion and sediment controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenouth, William R.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2015-09-01

This paper provides additional discussion surrounding the novel event-based soil loss models developed by Trenouth and Gharabaghi (2015) for the design of erosion and sediment controls (ESCs) for various phases of construction - from pre-development to post-development conditions. The datasets for the study were obtained from three Ontario sites - Greensborough, Cookstown, and Alcona - in addition to datasets mined from the literature for three additional sites - Treynor, Iowa, Coshocton, Ohio and Cordoba, Spain. Model performances were evaluated for each of the study sites, and quantified using commonly-reported statistics. This work is nested within a broader conceptual framework, which includes the estimation of ambient receiving water quality, the prediction of event mean runoff quality for a given design storm, and the calculation of the required level of protection using adequate ESCs to meet receiving water quality guidelines. These models allow design engineers and regulatory agencies to assess the potential risk of ecological damage to receiving waters due to inadequate soil erosion and sediment control practices using dynamic scenario forecasting when considering rapidly changing land use conditions during various phases of construction, typically for a 2- or 5-year design storm return period.

A cultural historical theoretical perspective of discourse and design in the science classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Megan

2015-06-01

Flavio Azevedo, Peggy Martalock and Tugba Keser have initiated an important conversation in science education as they use sociocultural theory to introduce design based scenarios into the science classroom. This response seeks to expand Azevedo, Martalock and Keser's article The discourse of design- based science classroom activities by using a specific perspective within a sociocultural framework. Through using a cultural historical (Vygotsky in The history and development of higher mental functions, Plenum Press, New York, 1987) reading of design based activity and discourse in the science classroom, it is proposed that learning should be an integral part of these processes. Therefore, everyday and scientific concepts are explained and expanded in relation to Inventing Graphing and discourse presented in Azevedo, Martalock and Keser's article. This response reports on the importance of teacher's being explicit in relation to connecting everyday and scientific concepts alongside design based activity and related science concepts when teaching students. It is argued that explicit teaching of concepts should be instigated prior to analysis of discourse in the science classroom as it is only with experience and understanding these processes that students have the resources to call upon to argue like practicing scientists.

Energy Technology Allocation for Distributed Energy Resources: A Technology-Policy Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallikarjun, Sreekanth

Distributed energy resources (DER) are emerging rapidly. New engineering technologies, materials, and designs improve the performance and extend the range of locations for DER. In contrast, constructing new or modernizing existing high voltage transmission lines for centralized generation are expensive and challenging. In addition, customer demand for reliability has increased and concerns about climate change have created a pull for swift renewable energy penetration. In this context, DER policy makers, developers, and users are interested in determining which energy technologies to use to accommodate different end-use energy demands. We present a two-stage multi-objective strategic technology-policy framework for determining the optimal energy technology allocation for DER. The framework simultaneously considers economic, technical, and environmental objectives. The first stage utilizes a Data Envelopment Analysis model for each end-use to evaluate the performance of each energy technology based on the three objectives. The second stage incorporates factor efficiencies determined in the first stage, capacity limitations, dispatchability, and renewable penetration for each technology, and demand for each end-use into a bottleneck multi-criteria decision model which provides the Pareto-optimal energy resource allocation. We conduct several case studies to understand the roles of various distributed energy technologies in different scenarios. We construct some policy implications based on the model results of set of case studies.

Role-playing simulation as an educational tool for health care personnel: developing an embedded assessment framework.

PubMed

Libin, Alexander; Lauderdale, Manon; Millo, Yuri; Shamloo, Christine; Spencer, Rachel; Green, Brad; Donnellan, Joyce; Wellesley, Christine; Groah, Suzanne

2010-04-01

Simulation- and video game-based role-playing techniques have been proven effective in changing behavior and enhancing positive decision making in a variety of professional settings, including education, the military, and health care. Although the need for developing assessment frameworks for learning outcomes has been clearly defined, there is a significant gap between the variety of existing multimedia-based instruction and technology-mediated learning systems and the number of reliable assessment algorithms. This study, based on a mixed methodology research design, aims to develop an embedded assessment algorithm, a Knowledge Assessment Module (NOTE), to capture both user interaction with the educational tool and knowledge gained from the training. The study is regarded as the first step in developing an assessment framework for a multimedia educational tool for health care professionals, Anatomy of Care (AOC), that utilizes Virtual Experience Immersive Learning Simulation (VEILS) technology. Ninety health care personnel of various backgrounds took part in online AOC training, choosing from five possible scenarios presenting difficult situations of everyday care. The results suggest that although the simulation-based training tool demonstrated partial effectiveness in improving learners' decision-making capacity, a differential learner-oriented approach might be more effective and capable of synchronizing educational efforts with identifiable relevant individual factors such as sociobehavioral profile and professional background.

A Report on Simulation-Driven Reliability and Failure Analysis of Large-Scale Storage Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wan, Lipeng; Wang, Feiyi; Oral, H. Sarp

High-performance computing (HPC) storage systems provide data availability and reliability using various hardware and software fault tolerance techniques. Usually, reliability and availability are calculated at the subsystem or component level using limited metrics such as, mean time to failure (MTTF) or mean time to data loss (MTTDL). This often means settling on simple and disconnected failure models (such as exponential failure rate) to achieve tractable and close-formed solutions. However, such models have been shown to be insufficient in assessing end-to-end storage system reliability and availability. We propose a generic simulation framework aimed at analyzing the reliability and availability of storagemore » systems at scale, and investigating what-if scenarios. The framework is designed for an end-to-end storage system, accommodating the various components and subsystems, their interconnections, failure patterns and propagation, and performs dependency analysis to capture a wide-range of failure cases. We evaluate the framework against a large-scale storage system that is in production and analyze its failure projections toward and beyond the end of lifecycle. We also examine the potential operational impact by studying how different types of components affect the overall system reliability and availability, and present the preliminary results« less

Analysis and Modeling of DIII-D Experiments With OMFIT and Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meneghini, O.; Luna, C.; Smith, S. P.; Lao, L. L.; GA Theory Team

2013-10-01

The OMFIT integrated modeling framework is designed to facilitate experimental data analysis and enable integrated simulations. This talk introduces this framework and presents a selection of its applications to the DIII-D experiment. Examples include kinetic equilibrium reconstruction analysis; evaluation of MHD stability in the core and in the edge; and self-consistent predictive steady-state transport modeling. The OMFIT framework also provides the platform for an innovative approach based on neural networks to predict electron and ion energy fluxes. In our study a multi-layer feed-forward back-propagation neural network is built and trained over a database of DIII-D data. It is found that given the same parameters that the highest fidelity models use, the neural network model is able to predict to a large degree the heat transport profiles observed in the DIII-D experiments. Once the network is built, the numerical cost of evaluating the transport coefficients is virtually nonexistent, thus making the neural network model particularly well suited for plasma control and quick exploration of operational scenarios. The implementation of the neural network model and benchmark with experimental results and gyro-kinetic models will be discussed. Work supported in part by the US DOE under DE-FG02-95ER54309.

Improved hydrological modeling using AGWA; incorporation of different management practices in hydrological modeling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vithanage, J.; Miller, S. N.; Paige, G. B.; Liu, T.

2017-12-01

We present a novel way to simulate the effects of rangeland management decisions in a GIS-based hydrologic modeling toolkit. We have implemented updates to the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) in which a landscape can be broken into management units (e.g., high intensity grazing, low intensity grazing, fire management, and unmanaged), each of which is assigned a different hydraulic conductivity (Ks) parameter in KINEmatic Runoff and EROSion model (KINEROS2). These updates are designed to provide modeling support to land managers tasked with rangeland watershed management planning and/or monitoring, and evaluation of water resources management. Changes to hydrologic processes and resulting hydrographs and sedigraphs are simulated within the AGWA framework. Case studies are presented in which a user selects various management scenarios and design storms, and the model identifies areas that become susceptible to change as a consequence of management decisions. The baseline (unmanaged) scenario is built using commonly available GIS data, after which the watershed is subdivided into management units. We used an array of design storms with various return periods and frequencies to evaluate the impact of management practices while changing the scale of watershed. Watershed parameters governing interception, infiltration, and surface runoff were determined with the aid of literature published on research studies carried out in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in southeast Arizona. We observed varied, but significant changes in hydrological responses (runoff) with different management practices as well with varied scales of watersheds. Results show that the toolkit can be used to quantify potential hydrologic change as a result of unitized land use decision-making.

Expanding the Reach of Participatory Risk Management: Testing an Online Decision-Aiding Framework for Informing Internally Consistent Choices.

PubMed

Bessette, Douglas L; Campbell-Arvai, Victoria; Arvai, Joseph

2016-05-01

This article presents research aimed at developing and testing an online, multistakeholder decision-aiding framework for informing multiattribute risk management choices associated with energy development and climate change. The framework was designed to provide necessary background information and facilitate internally consistent choices, or choices that are in line with users' prioritized objectives. In order to test different components of the decision-aiding framework, a six-part, 2 × 2 × 2 factorial experiment was conducted, yielding eight treatment scenarios. The three factors included: (1) whether or not users could construct their own alternatives; (2) the level of detail regarding the composition of alternatives users would evaluate; and (3) the way in which a final choice between users' own constructed (or highest-ranked) portfolio and an internally consistent portfolio was presented. Participants' self-reports revealed the framework was easy to use and providing an opportunity to develop one's own risk-management alternatives (Factor 1) led to the highest knowledge gains. Empirical measures showed the internal consistency of users' decisions across all treatments to be lower than expected and confirmed that providing information about alternatives' composition (Factor 2) resulted in the least internally consistent choices. At the same time, those users who did not develop their own alternatives and were not shown detailed information about the composition of alternatives believed their choices to be the most internally consistent. These results raise concerns about how the amount of information provided and the ability to construct alternatives may inversely affect users' real and perceived internal consistency. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

SpaceCubeX: A Framework for Evaluating Hybrid Multi-Core CPU FPGA DSP Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Andrew G.; Weisz, Gabriel; French, Matthew; Flatley, Thomas; Villalpando, Carlos Y.

2017-01-01

The SpaceCubeX project is motivated by the need for high performance, modular, and scalable on-board processing to help scientists answer critical 21st century questions about global climate change, air quality, ocean health, and ecosystem dynamics, while adding new capabilities such as low-latency data products for extreme event warnings. These goals translate into on-board processing throughput requirements that are on the order of 100-1,000 more than those of previous Earth Science missions for standard processing, compression, storage, and downlink operations. To study possible future architectures to achieve these performance requirements, the SpaceCubeX project provides an evolvable testbed and framework that enables a focused design space exploration of candidate hybrid CPU/FPGA/DSP processing architectures. The framework includes ArchGen, an architecture generator tool populated with candidate architecture components, performance models, and IP cores, that allows an end user to specify the type, number, and connectivity of a hybrid architecture. The framework requires minimal extensions to integrate new processors, such as the anticipated High Performance Spaceflight Computer (HPSC), reducing time to initiate benchmarking by months. To evaluate the framework, we leverage a wide suite of high performance embedded computing benchmarks and Earth science scenarios to ensure robust architecture characterization. We report on our projects Year 1 efforts and demonstrate the capabilities across four simulation testbed models, a baseline SpaceCube 2.0 system, a dual ARM A9 processor system, a hybrid quad ARM A53 and FPGA system, and a hybrid quad ARM A53 and DSP system.

The GLEaMviz computational tool, a publicly available software to explore realistic epidemic spreading scenarios at the global scale

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Computational models play an increasingly important role in the assessment and control of public health crises, as demonstrated during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Much research has been done in recent years in the development of sophisticated data-driven models for realistic computer-based simulations of infectious disease spreading. However, only a few computational tools are presently available for assessing scenarios, predicting epidemic evolutions, and managing health emergencies that can benefit a broad audience of users including policy makers and health institutions. Results We present "GLEaMviz", a publicly available software system that simulates the spread of emerging human-to-human infectious diseases across the world. The GLEaMviz tool comprises three components: the client application, the proxy middleware, and the simulation engine. The latter two components constitute the GLEaMviz server. The simulation engine leverages on the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) framework, a stochastic computational scheme that integrates worldwide high-resolution demographic and mobility data to simulate disease spread on the global scale. The GLEaMviz design aims at maximizing flexibility in defining the disease compartmental model and configuring the simulation scenario; it allows the user to set a variety of parameters including: compartment-specific features, transition values, and environmental effects. The output is a dynamic map and a corresponding set of charts that quantitatively describe the geo-temporal evolution of the disease. The software is designed as a client-server system. The multi-platform client, which can be installed on the user's local machine, is used to set up simulations that will be executed on the server, thus avoiding specific requirements for large computational capabilities on the user side. Conclusions The user-friendly graphical interface of the GLEaMviz tool, along with its high level of detail and the realism of its embedded modeling approach, opens up the platform to simulate realistic epidemic scenarios. These features make the GLEaMviz computational tool a convenient teaching/training tool as well as a first step toward the development of a computational tool aimed at facilitating the use and exploitation of computational models for the policy making and scenario analysis of infectious disease outbreaks. PMID:21288355

Convoy Protection under Multi-Threat Scenario

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

14. SUBJECT TERMS antisubmarine warfare, convoy protection, screening, design of experiments, agent-based simulation 15. NUMBER OF...46 5. Scenarios 33–36 (Red Submarine Tactic-2) ...............................46 IV. DESIGN OF EXPERIMENT...47 C. NEARLY ORTHOGONAL LATIN HYPERCUBE DESIGN ............51 V. DATA ANALYSIS

Impact of air pollutants from surface transport sources on human health: A modeling and epidemiological approach.

PubMed

Aggarwal, Preeti; Jain, Suresh

2015-10-01

This study adopted an integrated 'source-to-receptor' assessment paradigm in order to determine the effects of emissions from passenger transport on urban air quality and human health in the megacity, Delhi. The emission modeling was carried out for the base year 2007 and three alternate (ALT) policy scenarios along with a business as usual (BAU) scenario for the year 2021. An Activity-Structure-Emission Factor (ASF) framework was adapted for emission modeling, followed by a grid-wise air quality assessment using AERMOD and a health impact assessment using an epidemiological approach. It was observed that a 2021-ALT-III scenario resulted in a maximum concentration reduction of ~24%, ~42% and ~58% for carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM), respectively, compared to a 2021-BAU scenario. Further, it results in significant reductions in respiratory and cardiovascular mortality, morbidity and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) by 41% and 58% on exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations when compared to the 2021-BAU scenario, respectively. In other words, a mix of proposed policy interventions namely the full-phased introduction of the Integrated Mass Transit System, fixed bus speed, stringent vehicle emission norms and a hike in parking fees for private vehicles would help in strengthening the capability of passenger transport to cater to a growing transport demand with a minimum health burden in the Delhi region. Further, the study estimated that the transport of goods would be responsible for ~5.5% additional VKT in the 2021-BAU scenario; however, it will contribute ~49% and ~55% additional NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations, respectively, in the Delhi region. Implementation of diesel particulate filters for goods vehicles in the 2021-ALT-IV-O scenario would help in the reduction of ~87% of PM2.5 concentration, compared to the 2021-BAU scenario; translating into a gain of 1267 and 505 DALY per million people from exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations, respectively. These findings suggest that significant health benefits are possible if goods transport is also included while designing strategies and policies in order to improve the overall urban air quality and minimize health impacts in city areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design of Adaptive Policy Pathways under Deep Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babovic, Vladan

2013-04-01

The design of large-scale engineering and infrastructural systems today is growing in complexity. Designers need to consider sociotechnical uncertainties, intricacies, and processes in the long- term strategic deployment and operations of these systems. In this context, water and spatial management is increasingly challenged not only by climate-associated changes such as sea level rise and increased spatio-temporal variability of precipitation, but also by pressures due to population growth and particularly accelerating rate of urbanisation. Furthermore, high investment costs and long term-nature of water-related infrastructure projects requires long-term planning perspective, sometimes extending over many decades. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future unfolds, as well as by policy responses to social and water events. As a result, a pathway emerges. Instead of responding to 'surprises' and making decisions on ad hoc basis, exploring adaptation pathways into the future provide indispensable support in water management decision-making. In this contribution, a structured approach for designing a dynamic adaptive policy based on the concepts of adaptive policy making and adaptation pathways is introduced. Such an approach provides flexibility which allows change over time in response to how the future unfolds, what is learned about the system, and changes in societal preferences. The introduced flexibility provides means for dealing with complexities of adaptation under deep uncertainties. It enables engineering systems to change in the face of uncertainty to reduce impacts from downside scenarios while capitalizing on upside opportunities. This contribution presents comprehensive framework for development and deployment of adaptive policy pathway framework, and demonstrates its performance under deep uncertainties on a case study related to urban water catchment in Singapore. Ingredients of this approach are: (a) transient scenarios (time series of various uncertain developments such as climate change, economic developments, societal changes), (b) a methodology for exploring many options and sequences of these options across different futures, and (c) a stepwise policy analysis. The strategy is applied on case of flexible deployment of novel, so-called Next Generation Infrastructure, and assessed in context of the proposed. Results of the study show that flexible design alternatives deliver much enhanced performance compared to systems optimized under deterministic forecasts of the future. The work also demonstrates that explicit incorporation of uncertainty and flexibility into decision-making process reduces capital expenditures while allowing decision makers to learn about system evolution throughout the lifetime of the project.

Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

2014-05-01

The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied including: qualitative methods such as interviews, group discussions and fuzzy cognitive mapping to identify land use/cover change processes, their driving forces and possible consequences, and final scenario generation; and geospatial methods such as GIS, geostatistics and environmental modeling in an environment for geoprocessing objects (Dinamica EGO) for spatial allocation of these scenarios. The methods were applied in the Italian Alps and the Romanian Carpathians. Both are mountainous areas, however they differ in terms of past and most likely future socio-economic development, and therefore consequent land use/cover changes. Whereas we focused on urban expansion due to tourism development in the Alps, we focused on possible deforestation trajectories in the Carpathians. In both areas, the recognized most significant driving forces were either not covered by accessible data, or were characterized as intangible. With the proposed framework we were able to generate futures scenarios despite these shortcomings, and enabling the transferability of the method.

Visual analytics of geo-social interaction patterns for epidemic control.

PubMed

Luo, Wei

2016-08-10

Human interaction and population mobility determine the spatio-temporal course of the spread of an airborne disease. This research views such spreads as geo-social interaction problems, because population mobility connects different groups of people over geographical locations via which the viruses transmit. Previous research argued that geo-social interaction patterns identified from population movement data can provide great potential in designing effective pandemic mitigation. However, little work has been done to examine the effectiveness of designing control strategies taking into account geo-social interaction patterns. To address this gap, this research proposes a new framework for effective disease control; specifically this framework proposes that disease control strategies should start from identifying geo-social interaction patterns, designing effective control measures accordingly, and evaluating the efficacy of different control measures. This framework is used to structure design of a new visual analytic tool that consists of three components: a reorderable matrix for geo-social mixing patterns, agent-based epidemic models, and combined visualization methods. With real world human interaction data in a French primary school as a proof of concept, this research compares the efficacy of vaccination strategies between the spatial-social interaction patterns and the whole areas. The simulation results show that locally targeted vaccination has the potential to keep infection to a small number and prevent spread to other regions. At some small probability, the local control strategies will fail; in these cases other control strategies will be needed. This research further explores the impact of varying spatial-social scales on the success of local vaccination strategies. The results show that a proper spatial-social scale can help achieve the best control efficacy with a limited number of vaccines. The case study shows how GS-EpiViz does support the design and testing of advanced control scenarios in airborne disease (e.g., influenza). The geo-social patterns identified through exploring human interaction data can help target critical individuals, locations, and clusters of locations for disease control purposes. The varying spatial-social scales can help geographically and socially prioritize limited resources (e.g., vaccines).

On quantum effects in a theory of biological evolution.

PubMed

Martin-Delgado, M A

2012-01-01

We construct a descriptive toy model that considers quantum effects on biological evolution starting from Chaitin's classical framework. There are smart evolution scenarios in which a quantum world is as favorable as classical worlds for evolution to take place. However, in more natural scenarios, the rate of evolution depends on the degree of entanglement present in quantum organisms with respect to classical organisms. If the entanglement is maximal, classical evolution turns out to be more favorable.

On Quantum Effects in a Theory of Biological Evolution

PubMed Central

Martin-Delgado, M. A.

2012-01-01

We construct a descriptive toy model that considers quantum effects on biological evolution starting from Chaitin's classical framework. There are smart evolution scenarios in which a quantum world is as favorable as classical worlds for evolution to take place. However, in more natural scenarios, the rate of evolution depends on the degree of entanglement present in quantum organisms with respect to classical organisms. If the entanglement is maximal, classical evolution turns out to be more favorable. PMID:22413059

Energy-saving framework for passive optical networks with ONU sleep/doze mode.

PubMed

Van, Dung Pham; Valcarenghi, Luca; Dias, Maluge Pubuduni Imali; Kondepu, Koteswararao; Castoldi, Piero; Wong, Elaine

2015-02-09

This paper proposes an energy-saving passive optical network framework (ESPON) that aims to incorporate optical network unit (ONU) sleep/doze mode into dynamic bandwidth allocation (DBA) algorithms to reduce ONU energy consumption. In the ESPON, the optical line terminal (OLT) schedules both downstream (DS) and upstream (US) transmissions in the same slot in an online and dynamic fashion whereas the ONU enters sleep mode outside the slot. The ONU sleep time is maximized based on both DS and US traffic. Moreover, during the slot, the ONU might enter doze mode when only its transmitter is idle to further improve energy efficiency. The scheduling order of data transmission, control message exchange, sleep period, and doze period defines an energy-efficient scheme under the ESPON. Three schemes are designed and evaluated in an extensive FPGA-based evaluation. Results show that whilst all the schemes significantly save ONU energy for different evaluation scenarios, the scheduling order has great impact on their performance. In addition, the ESPON allows for a scheduling order that saves ONU energy independently of the network reach.

Development of fuzzy multi-criteria approach to prioritize locations of treated wastewater use considering climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Chung, Eun-Sung; Kim, Yeonjoo

2014-12-15

This study proposed a robust prioritization framework to identify the priorities of treated wastewater (TWW) use locations with consideration of various uncertainties inherent in the climate change scenarios and the decision-making process. First, a fuzzy concept was applied because future forecast precipitation and their hydrological impact analysis results displayed significant variances when considering various climate change scenarios and long periods (e.g., 2010-2099). Second, various multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques including weighted sum method (WSM), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and fuzzy TOPSIS were introduced to robust prioritization because different MCDM methods use different decision philosophies. Third, decision making method under complete uncertainty (DMCU) including maximin, maximax, minimax regret, Hurwicz, and equal likelihood were used to find robust final rankings. This framework is then applied to a Korean urban watershed. As a result, different rankings were obviously appeared between fuzzy TOPSIS and non-fuzzy MCDMs (e.g., WSM and TOPSIS) because the inter-annual variability in effectiveness was considered only with fuzzy TOPSIS. Then, robust prioritizations were derived based on 18 rankings from nine decadal periods of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For more robust rankings, five DMCU approaches using the rankings from fuzzy TOPSIS were derived. This framework combining fuzzy TOPSIS with DMCU approaches can be rendered less controversial among stakeholders under complete uncertainty of changing environments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

Initial Demonstration of the Real-Time Safety Monitoring Framework for the National Airspace System Using Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roychoudhury, Indranil; Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai; Spirkovska, Lilly; Sankararaman, Shankar; Ossenfort, John; Kulkarni, Chetan; McDermott, William; Poll, Scott

2016-01-01

As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have an automated framework to provide an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecast, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. Towards this end, as part of our earlier work, we formulated the Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) framework for monitoring and predicting the state of safety and to predict unsafe events. In our previous work, the RTSM framework was demonstrated in simulation on three different constructed scenarios. In this paper, we further develop the framework and demonstrate it on real flight data from multiple data sources. Specifically, the flight data is obtained through the Shadow Mode Assessment using Realistic Technologies for the National Airspace System (SMART-NAS) Testbed that serves as a central point of collection, integration, and access of information from these different data sources. By testing and evaluating using real-world scenarios, we may accelerate the acceptance of the RTSM framework towards deployment. In this paper we demonstrate the framework's capability to not only estimate the state of safety in the NAS, but predict the time and location of unsafe events such as a loss of separation between two aircraft, or an aircraft encountering convective weather. The experimental results highlight the capability of the approach, and the kind of information that can be provided to operators to improve their situational awareness in the context of safety.

Teaching Innovation and Use of the ICT in the Teaching-Learning Process within the New Framework of the EHEA, by Means of Moodle Platform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ciudad-Gómez, Adelaida

2010-01-01

The framework of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) has turned the student into the main protagonist of the new educational scenario, and the teacher into the coordinator of teaching-learning process instead of transmitter of knowledge. In this new model of learning, the use of ICT is facilitating competency-based learning and the…

Agent-based Large-Scale Emergency Evacuation Using Real-Time Open Government Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Wei; Liu, Cheng; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

The open government initiatives have provided tremendous data resources for the transportation system and emergency services in urban areas. This paper proposes a traffic simulation framework using high temporal resolution demographic data and real time open government data for evacuation planning and operation. A comparison study using real-world data in Seattle, Washington is conducted to evaluate the framework accuracy and evacuation efficiency. The successful simulations of selected area prove the concept to take advantage open government data, open source data, and high resolution demographic data in emergency management domain. There are two aspects of parameters considered in this study: usermore » equilibrium (UE) conditions of traffic assignment model (simple Non-UE vs. iterative UE) and data temporal resolution (Daytime vs. Nighttime). Evacuation arrival rate, average travel time, and computation time are adopted as Measure of Effectiveness (MOE) for evacuation performance analysis. The temporal resolution of demographic data has significant impacts on urban transportation dynamics during evacuation scenarios. Better evacuation performance estimation can be approached by integrating both Non-UE and UE scenarios. The new framework shows flexibility in implementing different evacuation strategies and accuracy in evacuation performance. The use of this framework can be explored to day-to-day traffic assignment to support daily traffic operations.« less

A framework for multivariate data-based at-site flood frequency analysis: Essentiality of the conjugal application of parametric and nonparametric approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vittal, H.; Singh, Jitendra; Kumar, Pankaj; Karmakar, Subhankar

2015-06-01

In watershed management, flood frequency analysis (FFA) is performed to quantify the risk of flooding at different spatial locations and also to provide guidelines for determining the design periods of flood control structures. The traditional FFA was extensively performed by considering univariate scenario for both at-site and regional estimation of return periods. However, due to inherent mutual dependence of the flood variables or characteristics [i.e., peak flow (P), flood volume (V) and flood duration (D), which are random in nature], analysis has been further extended to multivariate scenario, with some restrictive assumptions. To overcome the assumption of same family of marginal density function for all flood variables, the concept of copula has been introduced. Although, the advancement from univariate to multivariate analyses drew formidable attention to the FFA research community, the basic limitation was that the analyses were performed with the implementation of only parametric family of distributions. The aim of the current study is to emphasize the importance of nonparametric approaches in the field of multivariate FFA; however, the nonparametric distribution may not always be a good-fit and capable of replacing well-implemented multivariate parametric and multivariate copula-based applications. Nevertheless, the potential of obtaining best-fit using nonparametric distributions might be improved because such distributions reproduce the sample's characteristics, resulting in more accurate estimations of the multivariate return period. Hence, the current study shows the importance of conjugating multivariate nonparametric approach with multivariate parametric and copula-based approaches, thereby results in a comprehensive framework for complete at-site FFA. Although the proposed framework is designed for at-site FFA, this approach can also be applied to regional FFA because regional estimations ideally include at-site estimations. The framework is based on the following steps: (i) comprehensive trend analysis to assess nonstationarity in the observed data; (ii) selection of the best-fit univariate marginal distribution with a comprehensive set of parametric and nonparametric distributions for the flood variables; (iii) multivariate frequency analyses with parametric, copula-based and nonparametric approaches; and (iv) estimation of joint and various conditional return periods. The proposed framework for frequency analysis is demonstrated using 110 years of observed data from Allegheny River at Salamanca, New York, USA. The results show that for both univariate and multivariate cases, the nonparametric Gaussian kernel provides the best estimate. Further, we perform FFA for twenty major rivers over continental USA, which shows for seven rivers, all the flood variables followed nonparametric Gaussian kernel; whereas for other rivers, parametric distributions provide the best-fit either for one or two flood variables. Thus the summary of results shows that the nonparametric method cannot substitute the parametric and copula-based approaches, but should be considered during any at-site FFA to provide the broadest choices for best estimation of the flood return periods.

A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

2014-12-01

Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the irrigated area. The most sensitive area is along the Boise Foothill which is the transitioning zone from water deficit to water abundant. However, these trends vary significantly between scenarios in space and time. The outcome of the study will serve as a reference for local stakeholders to make decisions on future land use.

A novel procedure for generating solar irradiance TSYs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanego, Vicente Lara; Rubio, Jesús Pulgar; Peruchena, Carlos M. Fernández; Romeo, Martín Gastón; Tejera, Sara Moreno; Santigosa, Lourdes Ramírez; Balderrama, Rita X. Valenzuela; Tirado, Luis F. Zarzalejo; Pantaleón, Diego Bermejo; Pérez, Manuel Silva; Contreras, Manuel Pavón; García, Ana Bernardos; Anarte, Sergio Macías

2017-06-01

Typical Solar Years (TSYs) are key parameters for the solar energy industry. In particular, TSYs are mainly used for the design and bankability analysis of solar projects. In essence, a TSY intends to describe the expected long-term behavior of the solar resource (direct and/or global irradiance) into a condensed period of one year at the specific location of interest. A TSY differs from a conventional Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) by its absence of meteorological variables other than solar radiation. Concerning the probability of exceedance (Pe) needed for bankability, various scenarios are commonly used, with Pe90, Pe95 or even Pe99 being most usually required as unfavorable scenarios, along with the most widely used median scenario (Pe50). There is no consensus in the scientific community regarding the methodology for generating TSYs for any Pe scenario. Furthermore, the application of two different construction methods to the same original dataset could produce differing TSYs. Within this framework, a group of experts has been established by the Spanish Association for Standardization and Certification (AENOR) in order to propose a method that can be standardized. The method developed by this working group, referred to as the EVA method, is presented in this contribution. Its evaluation shows that it provides reasonable results for the two main irradiance components (direct and global), with low errors in the annual estimations for any given Pe. The EVA method also preserves the long-term statistics when the computed TSYs for a specific Pe are expanded from the monthly basis used in the generation of the TSY to higher time resolutions, such as 1 hour, which are necessary for the precise energy simulation of solar systems.

POLARIS: Agent-based modeling framework development and implementation for integrated travel demand and network and operations simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Auld, Joshua; Hope, Michael; Ley, Hubert

This paper discusses the development of an agent-based modelling software development kit, and the implementation and validation of a model using it that integrates dynamic simulation of travel demand, network supply and network operations. A description is given of the core utilities in the kit: a parallel discrete event engine, interprocess exchange engine, and memory allocator, as well as a number of ancillary utilities: visualization library, database IO library, and scenario manager. The overall framework emphasizes the design goals of: generality, code agility, and high performance. This framework allows the modeling of several aspects of transportation system that are typicallymore » done with separate stand-alone software applications, in a high-performance and extensible manner. The issue of integrating such models as dynamic traffic assignment and disaggregate demand models has been a long standing issue for transportation modelers. The integrated approach shows a possible way to resolve this difficulty. The simulation model built from the POLARIS framework is a single, shared-memory process for handling all aspects of the integrated urban simulation. The resulting gains in computational efficiency and performance allow planning models to be extended to include previously separate aspects of the urban system, enhancing the utility of such models from the planning perspective. Initial tests with case studies involving traffic management center impacts on various network events such as accidents, congestion and weather events, show the potential of the system.« less

Scenario Planning for Water Resources: a Forward-looking Approach Combining Science, Demographic Trends and Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, F.; Thorsten, W.

2007-12-01

Although there has been much written about the use of scenario analysis for long-term planning, particularly with respect to the decisions facing firms, the extant literature has few examples of scenarios explicitly applied to water resource issues. Fewer still have considered short-fuse events such as floods and failure of water retention and conveyance structures in the context of longer-term scenarios for water resources planning. We report progress on an effort to develop a unified framework for constructing scenarios for water resource management. We place particular emphasis on semi-arid environments and forces external to the traditional water management process such as high-impact weather and climate events or unforeseen changes in government institutions that may drive unanticipated change in environmental systems. Most water resource scenarios are typically based on high, medium and low projections of demographics (gpcd), climate (precipitation, temperature), and perhaps institutional variables (conveyance infrastructure, legal issues). We discuss the relative merits of this with other approaches including: probabalistic scenarios, which explicitly weight the likelihood of different outcomes; anticipatory scenarios, which consider how to achieve or avoid some subjective future state; strategic scenarios, which seeks to identify the inconsistencies between disciplines in the way the environmental models are constructed

Spatial optimization of watershed management practices for nitrogen load reduction using a modeling-optimization framework.

PubMed

Yang, Guoxiang; Best, Elly P H

2015-09-15

Best management practices (BMPs) can be used effectively to reduce nutrient loads transported from non-point sources to receiving water bodies. However, methodologies of BMP selection and placement in a cost-effective way are needed to assist watershed management planners and stakeholders. We developed a novel modeling-optimization framework that can be used to find cost-effective solutions of BMP placement to attain nutrient load reduction targets. This was accomplished by integrating a GIS-based BMP siting method, a WQM-TMDL-N modeling approach to estimate total nitrogen (TN) loading, and a multi-objective optimization algorithm. Wetland restoration and buffer strip implementation were the two BMP categories used to explore the performance of this framework, both differing greatly in complexity of spatial analysis for site identification. Minimizing TN load and BMP cost were the two objective functions for the optimization process. The performance of this framework was demonstrated in the Tippecanoe River watershed, Indiana, USA. Optimized scenario-based load reduction indicated that the wetland subset selected by the minimum scenario had the greatest N removal efficiency. Buffer strips were more effective for load removal than wetlands. The optimized solutions provided a range of trade-offs between the two objective functions for both BMPs. This framework can be expanded conveniently to a regional scale because the NHDPlus catchment serves as its spatial computational unit. The present study demonstrated the potential of this framework to find cost-effective solutions to meet a water quality target, such as a 20% TN load reduction, under different conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of coastal management options by means of multilayered ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobre, Ana M.; Ferreira, João G.; Nunes, João P.; Yan, Xiaojun; Bricker, Suzanne; Corner, Richard; Groom, Steve; Gu, Haifeng; Hawkins, Anthony J. S.; Hutson, Rory; Lan, Dongzhao; Silva, João D. Lencart e.; Pascoe, Philip; Telfer, Trevor; Zhang, Xuelei; Zhu, Mingyuan

2010-03-01

This paper presents a multilayered ecosystem modelling approach that combines the simulation of the biogeochemistry of a coastal ecosystem with the simulation of the main forcing functions, such as catchment loading and aquaculture activities. This approach was developed as a tool for sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. A key feature is to simulate management scenarios that account for changes in multiple uses and enable assessment of cumulative impacts of coastal activities. The model was applied to a coastal zone in China with large aquaculture production and multiple catchment uses, and where management efforts to improve water quality are under way. Development scenarios designed in conjunction with local managers and aquaculture producers include the reduction of fish cages and treatment of wastewater. Despite the reduction in nutrient loading simulated in three different scenarios, inorganic nutrient concentrations in the bay were predicted to exceed the thresholds for poor quality defined by Chinese seawater quality legislation. For all scenarios there is still a Moderate High to High nutrient loading from the catchment, so further reductions might be enacted, together with additional decreases in fish cage culture. The model predicts that overall, shellfish production decreases by 10%-28% using any of these development scenarios, principally because shellfish growth is being sustained by the substances to be reduced for improvement of water quality. The model outcomes indicate that this may be counteracted by zoning of shellfish aquaculture at the ecosystem level in order to optimize trade-offs between productivity and environmental effects. The present case study exemplifies the value of multilayered ecosystem modelling as a tool for Integrated Coastal Zone Management and for the adoption of ecosystem approaches for marine resource management. This modelling approach can be applied worldwide, and may be particularly useful for the application of coastal management regulation, for instance in the implementation of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

Combining Domain-driven Design and Mashups for Service Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Carlos A.; Fernández-Villamor, José Ignacio; Del Pozo, David; Garulli, Luca; García, Boni

This chapter presents the Romulus project approach to Service Development using Java-based web technologies. Romulus aims at improving productivity of service development by providing a tool-supported model to conceive Java-based web applications. This model follows a Domain Driven Design approach, which states that the primary focus of software projects should be the core domain and domain logic. Romulus proposes a tool-supported model, Roma Metaframework, that provides an abstraction layer on top of existing web frameworks and automates the application generation from the domain model. This metaframework follows an object centric approach, and complements Domain Driven Design by identifying the most common cross-cutting concerns (security, service, view, ...) of web applications. The metaframework uses annotations for enriching the domain model with these cross-cutting concerns, so-called aspects. In addition, the chapter presents the usage of mashup technology in the metaframework for service composition, using the web mashup editor MyCocktail. This approach is applied to a scenario of the Mobile Phone Service Portability case study for the development of a new service.

Independent Manipulation of Heat and Electrical Current via Bifunctional Metamaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moccia, Massimo; Castaldi, Giuseppe; Savo, Salvatore; Sato, Yuki; Galdi, Vincenzo

2014-04-01

Spatial tailoring of the material constitutive properties is a well-known strategy to mold the local flow of given observables in different physical domains. Coordinate-transformation-based methods (e.g., transformation optics) offer a powerful and systematic approach to design anisotropic, spatially inhomogeneous artificial materials (metamaterials) capable of precisely manipulating wave-based (electromagnetic, acoustic, elastic) as well as diffusion-based (heat) phenomena in a desired fashion. However, as versatile as these approaches have been, most designs have thus far been limited to serving single-target functionalities in a given physical domain. Here, we present a step towards a "transformation multiphysics" framework that allows independent and simultaneous manipulation of multiple physical phenomena. As a proof of principle of this new scheme, we design and synthesize (in terms of realistic material constituents) a metamaterial shell that simultaneously behaves as a thermal concentrator and an electrical "invisibility cloak." Our numerical results open up intriguing possibilities in the largely unexplored phase space of multifunctional metadevices, with a wide variety of potential applications to electrical, magnetic, acoustic, and thermal scenarios.

Environmental management system for transportation maintenance operations : [technical brief].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-04-01

This report provides the framework for the environmental management system to analyze : greenhouse gas emissions from transportation maintenance operations. The system enables user : to compare different scenarios and make informed decisions to minim...

A Framework for Understanding Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

operations. Experiments that emphasize free play and uncertainty in scenarios reflect conditions found in existent operations and satisfy external...validity Requirement 4, the ability to relate results. Conversely, experiments emphasizing similar conditions with diminished free play across multiple

The use of Ethics Decision-Making Frameworks by Canadian Ethics Consultants: A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Kaposy, Chris; Brunger, Fern; Maddalena, Victor; Singleton, Richard

2016-10-01

In this study, Canadian healthcare ethics consultants describe their use of ethics decision-making frameworks. Our research finds that ethics consultants in Canada use multi-purpose ethics decision-making frameworks, as well as targeted frameworks that focus on reaching an ethical resolution to a particular healthcare issue, such as adverse event reporting, or difficult triage scenarios. Several interviewees mention the influence that the accreditation process in Canadian healthcare organizations has on the adoption and use of such frameworks. Some of the ethics consultants we interviewed also report on their reluctance to use these tools. Limited empirical work has been done previously on the use of ethics decision-making frameworks. This study begins to fill this gap in our understanding of the work of healthcare ethics consultants. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

LHC benchmark scenarios for the real Higgs singlet extension of the standard model

DOE PAGES

Robens, Tania; Stefaniak, Tim

2016-05-13

Here, we present benchmark scenarios for searches for an additional Higgs state in the real Higgs singlet extension of the Standard Model in Run 2 of the LHC. The scenarios are selected such that they ful ll all relevant current theoretical and experimental constraints, but can potentially be discovered at the current LHC run. We take into account the results presented in earlier work and update the experimental constraints from relevant LHC Higgs searches and signal rate measurements. The benchmark scenarios are given separately for the low mass and high mass region, i.e. the mass range where the additional Higgsmore » state is lighter or heavier than the discovered Higgs state at around 125 GeV. They have also been presented in the framework of the LHC Higgs Cross Section Working Group.« less

Collision-model approach to steering of an open driven qubit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyer, Konstantin; Luoma, Kimmo; Strunz, Walter T.

2018-03-01

We investigate quantum steering of an open quantum system by measurements on its environment in the framework of collision models. As an example we consider a coherently driven qubit dissipatively coupled to a bath. We construct local nonadaptive and adaptive as well as nonlocal measurement scenarios specifying explicitly the measured observable on the environment. Our approach shows transparently how the conditional evolution of the open system depends on the type of the measurement scenario and the measured observables. These can then be optimized for steering. The nonlocal measurement scenario leads to maximal violation of the used steering inequality at zero temperature. Further, we investigate the robustness of the constructed scenarios against thermal noise. We find generally that steering becomes harder at higher temperatures. Surprisingly, the system can be steered even when bipartite entanglement between the system and individual subenvironments vanishes.

Game-Like Technology Innovation Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magnussen, Rikke

2011-01-01

This paper examines the methodological challenges and perspectives of designing game-like scenarios for the implementation of innovation processes in school science education. This paper presents a design-based research study of a game-like innovation scenario designed for technology education for Danish public school students aged 13-15. Students…

Scalable Cloning on Large-Scale GPU Platforms with Application to Time-Stepped Simulations on Grids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoginath, Srikanth B.; Perumalla, Kalyan S.

Cloning is a technique to efficiently simulate a tree of multiple what-if scenarios that are unraveled during the course of a base simulation. However, cloned execution is highly challenging to realize on large, distributed memory computing platforms, due to the dynamic nature of the computational load across clones, and due to the complex dependencies spanning the clone tree. In this paper, we present the conceptual simulation framework, algorithmic foundations, and runtime interface of CloneX, a new system we designed for scalable simulation cloning. It efficiently and dynamically creates whole logical copies of a dynamic tree of simulations across a largemore » parallel system without full physical duplication of computation and memory. The performance of a prototype implementation executed on up to 1,024 graphical processing units of a supercomputing system has been evaluated with three benchmarks—heat diffusion, forest fire, and disease propagation models—delivering a speed up of over two orders of magnitude compared to replicated runs. Finally, the results demonstrate a significantly faster and scalable way to execute many what-if scenario ensembles of large simulations via cloning using the CloneX interface.« less

Cost Implications of Value-Based Pricing for Companion Diagnostic Tests in Precision Medicine.

PubMed

Zaric, Gregory S

2016-07-01

Many interpretations of personalized medicine, also referred to as precision medicine, include discussions of companion diagnostic tests that allow drugs to be targeted to those individuals who are most likely to benefit or that allow treatment to be designed in a way such that individuals who are unlikely to benefit do not receive treatment. Many authors have commented on the clinical and competitive implications of companion diagnostics, but there has been relatively little formal analysis of the cost implications of companion diagnostics, although cost reduction is often cited as a significant benefit of precision medicine. We investigate the potential impact on costs of precision medicine implemented through the use of companion diagnostics. We develop a framework in which the costs of companion diagnostic tests are determined by considerations of profit maximization and cost effectiveness. We analyze four scenarios that are defined by the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the new drug in the absence of a companion diagnostic test. We find that, in most scenarios, precision medicine strategies based on companion diagnostics should be expected to lead to increases in costs in the short term and that costs would fall only in a limited number of situations.

Scalable Cloning on Large-Scale GPU Platforms with Application to Time-Stepped Simulations on Grids

DOE PAGES

Yoginath, Srikanth B.; Perumalla, Kalyan S.

2018-01-31

Cloning is a technique to efficiently simulate a tree of multiple what-if scenarios that are unraveled during the course of a base simulation. However, cloned execution is highly challenging to realize on large, distributed memory computing platforms, due to the dynamic nature of the computational load across clones, and due to the complex dependencies spanning the clone tree. In this paper, we present the conceptual simulation framework, algorithmic foundations, and runtime interface of CloneX, a new system we designed for scalable simulation cloning. It efficiently and dynamically creates whole logical copies of a dynamic tree of simulations across a largemore » parallel system without full physical duplication of computation and memory. The performance of a prototype implementation executed on up to 1,024 graphical processing units of a supercomputing system has been evaluated with three benchmarks—heat diffusion, forest fire, and disease propagation models—delivering a speed up of over two orders of magnitude compared to replicated runs. Finally, the results demonstrate a significantly faster and scalable way to execute many what-if scenario ensembles of large simulations via cloning using the CloneX interface.« less

Using foresight methods to anticipate future threats: the case of disease management.

PubMed

Ma, Sai; Seid, Michael

2006-01-01

We describe a unique foresight framework for health care managers to use in longer-term planning. This framework uses scenario-building to envision plausible alternate futures of the U.S. health care system and links those broad futures to business-model-specific "load-bearing" assumptions. Because the framework we describe simultaneously addresses very broad and very specific issues, it can be easily applied to a broad range of health care issues by using the broad framework and business-specific assumptions for the particular case at hand. We illustrate this method using the case of disease management, pointing out that although the industry continues to grow rapidly, its future also contains great uncertainties.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mourhatch, Ramses

This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis. As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California. Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2s-2.0s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period (> 2.0s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms. Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.

Naturalistic Decision Making For Power System Operators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin; Robinson, Marck

2009-06-23

Abstract: Motivation -- As indicated by the Blackout of 2003, the North American interconnected electric system is vulnerable to cascading outages and widespread blackouts. Investigations of large scale outages often attribute the causes to the three T’s: Trees, Training and Tools. A systematic approach has been developed to document and understand the mental processes that an expert power system operator uses when making critical decisions. The approach has been developed and refined as part of a capability demonstration of a high-fidelity real-time power system simulator under normal and emergency conditions. To examine naturalistic decision making (NDM) processes, transcripts of operator-to-operatormore » conversations are analyzed to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. Findings/Design -- The results of the study indicate that we can map the Situation Awareness Level of the operators at each point in the scenario. We can also identify clearly what mental models and mental simulations are being performed at different points in the scenario. As a result of this research we expect that we can identify improved training methods and improved analytical and visualization tools for power system operators. Originality/Value -- The research applies for the first time, the concepts of Recognition Primed Decision Making, Situation Awareness Levels and Cognitive Task Analysis to training of electric power system operators. Take away message -- The NDM approach provides an ideal framework for systematic training management and mitigation to accelerate learning in team-based training scenarios with high-fidelity power grid simulators.« less

Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

Exploring the impact of co-varying water availability and energy price on productivity and profitability of Alpine hydropower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Botter, Martina; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

Alpine hydropower systems are experiencing dramatic changes both from the point of view of hydrological conditions, e.g., water availability and frequency of extremes events, and of energy market conditions, e.g., partial or total liberalization of the market and increasing share of renewable power sources. Scientific literature has, so far, mostly focused on the analysis of climate change impacts and associated uncertainty on hydropower operation, underlooking the consequences that socio-economic changes, e.g., energy demand and/or price changes, can have on hydropower productivity and profitability. In this work, we analyse how hydropower reservoir operation is affected by changes in both water availability and energy price. We consider stochastically downscaled climate change scenarios of precipitation and temperature to simulate reservoir inflows using a physically explicit hydrological model. We consider different scenarios of energy demand and generation mix to simulate energy prices using an electricity market model, which includes different generation sources, demand sinks, and features of the transmission lines. We then use Multi-Objective optimization techniques to design the operation of hydropower reservoirs for different purposes, e.g. maximization of revenue and/or energy production. The objective of the work is to assess how the tradeoffs between the multiple operating objectives evolve under different co-varying climate change and socio-economic scenarios and to assess the adaptive capacity of the system. The modeling framework is tested on the real-world case study of the Mattmark reservoir in Switzerland.

Simulating surface oil transport during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: Experiments with the BioCast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolliff, Jason Keith; Smith, Travis A.; Ladner, Sherwin; Arnone, Robert A.

2014-03-01

The U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) is developing nowcast/forecast software systems designed to combine satellite ocean color data streams with physical circulation models in order to produce prognostic fields of ocean surface materials. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico provided a test case for the Bio-Optical Forecasting (BioCast) system to rapidly combine the latest satellite imagery of the oil slick distribution with surface circulation fields in order to produce oil slick transport scenarios and forecasts. In one such sequence of experiments, MODIS satellite true color images were combined with high-resolution ocean circulation forecasts from the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) to produce 96-h oil transport simulations. These oil forecasts predicted a major oil slick landfall at Grand Isle, Louisiana, USA that was subsequently observed. A key driver of the landfall scenario was the development of a coastal buoyancy current associated with Mississippi River Delta freshwater outflow. In another series of experiments, longer-term regional circulation model results were combined with oil slick source/sink scenarios to simulate the observed containment of surface oil within the Gulf of Mexico. Both sets of experiments underscore the importance of identifying and simulating potential hydrodynamic conduits of surface oil transport. The addition of explicit sources and sinks of surface oil concentrations provides a framework for increasingly complex oil spill modeling efforts that extend beyond horizontal trajectory analysis.

Quantifying and Comparing Effects of Climate Engineering Methods on the Earth System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonntag, Sebastian; Ferrer González, Miriam; Ilyina, Tatiana; Kracher, Daniela; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Pongratz, Julia; Reick, Christian H.; Schmidt, Hauke

2018-02-01

To contribute to a quantitative comparison of climate engineering (CE) methods, we assess atmosphere-, ocean-, and land-based CE measures with respect to Earth system effects consistently within one comprehensive model. We use the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) with prognostic carbon cycle to compare solar radiation management (SRM) by stratospheric sulfur injection and two carbon dioxide removal methods: afforestation and ocean alkalinization. The CE model experiments are designed to offset the effect of fossil-fuel burning on global mean surface air temperature under the RCP8.5 scenario to follow or get closer to the RCP4.5 scenario. Our results show the importance of feedbacks in the CE effects. For example, as a response to SRM the land carbon uptake is enhanced by 92 Gt by the year 2100 compared to the reference RCP8.5 scenario due to reduced soil respiration thus reducing atmospheric CO2. Furthermore, we show that normalizations allow for a better comparability of different CE methods. For example, we find that due to compensating processes such as biogeophysical effects of afforestation more carbon needs to be removed from the atmosphere by afforestation than by alkalinization to reach the same global warming reduction. Overall, we illustrate how different CE methods affect the components of the Earth system; we identify challenges arising in a CE comparison, and thereby contribute to developing a framework for a comparative assessment of CE.

A framework for public involvement at the design stage of NHS health and social care research: time to develop ethically conscious standards.

PubMed

Pandya-Wood, Raksha; Barron, Duncan S; Elliott, Jim

2017-01-01

Researchers who conduct studies in health and social care are encouraged to involve the public as early as possible in the process of designing their studies. Before their studies are allowed to start researchers must seek approval from a Research Ethics Committee, which will assess whether the study is going to be safe and ethical for patients or healthy volunteers to take part in. The process of ethical review does not consider how researchers work with patients and the public early on to design their studies. Furthermore, there is no requirement for researchers to seek ethical approval for public involvement. However, in our work advising researchers about public involvement we have found that the ways in which researchers involve the public in the design of their studies are sometimes unintentionally unethical, and this is the focus of our paper. We have observed ten areas where ethical issues may arise because of the actions researchers may or may not take and which might consequently have a negative impact. Therefore, we have used these observations to develop a "framework" to help researchers and the public work together at the early design stage in ways that are ethical. Our intention for the framework is to help researchers be mindful of these ten areas and how easily ethical issues can arise. The framework suggests some ways to overcome the potential issues in each of the ten areas. The ten areas are: 1) Allocating sufficient time for public involvement; 2) Avoiding tokenism; 3) Registering research design stage public involvement work with NHS Research & Development Trust Office at earliest opportunity; 4) Communicating clearly from the outset; 5) Entitling public contributors to stop their involvement for any unstated reasons; 6) Operating fairness of opportunity; 7) Differentiating qualitative research methods and public involvement activities; 8) Working sensitively; 9) Being conscious of confidentiality and 10) Valuing, acknowledging and rewarding public involvement. We looked to see whether any other similar approaches to helping researchers address potential ethical issues when working with the public on designing studies have been published and to our knowledge none exist. Our framework is presented as a draft and believe that it would now benefit from input from researchers and the public to gauge how useful it is and whether there are any other possible situations that it might need to cover. The current paper highlights real life examples of how ethical issues can arise during public involvement activities at the research design stage. We refer to "the research design stage" as the time between the generation of the research ideas and when formal permissions to start the work including ethical approval are granted. We argue that although most researchers work ethically at this early stage, some may still benefit from being informed about ethically conscious approaches to involving the public. The paper highlights 10 ethical issues that we have observed with involving the public at the research design stage. We provide examples of these observed scenarios to illustrate the issues and make suggestions for how they can be avoided to help researchers become more ethically conscious when involving the public at the research design stage. Currently the draft framework comprises: 1) Allocating sufficient time for public involvement; 2) Avoiding tokenism; 3) Registering research design stage public involvement work with NHS Research & Development Trust Office at earliest opportunity; 4) Communicating clearly from the outset; 5) Entitling public contributors to stop their involvement for any unstated reasons; 6) Operating fairness of opportunity; 7) Differentiating qualitative research methods and public involvement activities; 8) Working sensitively; 9) Being conscious of confidentiality and 10) Valuing, acknowledging and rewarding public involvement. The draft framework will help researchers to recognise the ethical issues when involving the public and is intended to be used voluntarily in a self-regulatory way. We believe that the draft framework requires further consultation and input from the wider research community and the public before endorsement by national UK bodies such as INVOLVE and the Health Research Authority (HRA).

Study on Potential Changes in Geological and Disposal Environment Caused by 'Natural Phenomena' on a HLW Disposal System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamura, M.; Umeda, K.; Ohi, T.; Ishimaru, T.; Niizato, T.; Yasue, K.; Makino, H.

2007-12-01

We have developed a formal evaluation method to assess the potential impact of natural phenomena (earthquakes and faulting; volcanism; uplift, subsidence, denudation and sedimentation; climatic and sea-level changes) on a High Level Radioactive Waste (HLW) Disposal System. In 2000, we had developed perturbation scenarios in a generic and conservative sense and illustrated the potential impact on a HLW disposal system. As results of the development of perturbation scenarios, two points were highlighted for consideration in subsequent work: improvement of the scenarios from the viewpoints of reality, transparency, traceability and consistency and avoiding extreme conservatism. Subsequently, we have thus developed a new procedure for describing such perturbation scenarios based on further studies of the characteristics of these natural perturbation phenomena in Japan. The approach to describing the perturbation scenario is effectively developed in five steps: Step 1: Description of potential process of phenomena and their impacts on the geological environment. Step 2: Characterization of potential changes of geological environment in terms of T-H-M-C (Thermal - Hydrological - Mechanical - Chemical) processes. The focus is on specific T-H-M-C parameters that influence geological barrier performance, utilizing the input from Step 1. Step 3: Classification of potential influences, based on similarity of T-H-M-C perturbations. This leads to development of perturbation scenarios to serve as a basis for consequence analysis. Step 4: Establishing models and parameters for performance assessment. Step 5: Calculation and assessment. This study focuses on identifying key T-H-M-C process associated with perturbations at Step 2. This framework has two advantages. First one is assuring maintenance of traceability during the scenario construction processes, facilitating the production and structuring of suitable records. The second is providing effective elicitation and organization of information from a wide range of investigations of earth sciences within a performance assessment context. In this framework, scenario development work proceeds in a stepwise manner, to ensure clear identification of the impact of processes associated with these phenomena on a HLW disposal system. Output is organized to create credible scenarios with required transparency, consistency, traceability and adequate conservatism. In this presentation, the potential impact of natural phenomena in the viewpoint of performance assessment for HLW disposal will be discussed and modeled using the approach.

An integrated pipeline to create and experience compelling scenarios in virtual reality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Springer, Jan P.; Neumann, Carsten; Reiners, Dirk; Cruz-Neira, Carolina

2011-03-01

One of the main barriers to create and use compelling scenarios in virtual reality is the complexity and time-consuming efforts for modeling, element integration, and the software development to properly display and interact with the content in the available systems. Still today, most virtual reality applications are tedious to create and they are hard-wired to the specific display and interaction system available to the developers when creating the application. Furthermore, it is not possible to alter the content or the dynamics of the content once the application has been created. We present our research on designing a software pipeline that enables the creation of compelling scenarios with a fair degree of visual and interaction complexity in a semi-automated way. Specifically, we are targeting drivable urban scenarios, ranging from large cities to sparsely populated rural areas that incorporate both static components (e. g., houses, trees) and dynamic components (e. g., people, vehicles) as well as events, such as explosions or ambient noise. Our pipeline has four basic components. First, an environment designer, where users sketch the overall layout of the scenario, and an automated method constructs the 3D environment from the information in the sketch. Second, a scenario editor used for authoring the complete scenario, incorporate the dynamic elements and events, fine tune the automatically generated environment, define the execution conditions of the scenario, and set up any data gathering that may be necessary during the execution of the scenario. Third, a run-time environment for different virtual-reality systems provides users with the interactive experience as designed with the designer and the editor. And fourth, a bi-directional monitoring system that allows for capturing and modification of information from the virtual environment. One of the interesting capabilities of our pipeline is that scenarios can be built and modified on-the-fly as they are being presented in the virtual-reality systems. Users can quickly prototype the basic scene using the designer and the editor on a control workstation. More elements can then be introduced into the scene from both the editor and the virtual-reality display. In this manner, users are able to gradually increase the complexity of the scenario with immediate feedback. The main use of this pipeline is the rapid development of scenarios for human-factors studies. However, it is applicable in a much more general context.

Dual acquisition of 18F-FMISO and 18F-FDOPA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Christopher; Rose, Stephen; Puttick, Simon; Pagnozzi, Alex; Poole, Christopher M.; Gal, Yaniv; Thomas, Paul; Fay, Michael; Jeffree, Rosalind L.; Dowson, Nicholas

2014-07-01

Metabolic imaging using positron emission tomography (PET) has found increasing clinical use for the management of infiltrating tumours such as glioma. However, the heterogeneous biological nature of tumours and intrinsic treatment resistance in some regions means that knowledge of multiple biological factors is needed for effective treatment planning. For example, the use of 18F-FDOPA to identify infiltrative tumour and 18F-FMISO for localizing hypoxic regions. Performing multiple PET acquisitions is impractical in many clinical settings, but previous studies suggest multiplexed PET imaging could be viable. The fidelity of the two signals is affected by the injection interval, scan timing and injected dose. The contribution of this work is to propose a framework to explicitly trade-off signal fidelity with logistical constraints when designing the imaging protocol. The particular case of estimating 18F-FMISO from a single frame prior to injection of 18F-FDOPA is considered. Theoretical experiments using simulations for typical biological scenarios in humans demonstrate that results comparable to a pair of single-tracer acquisitions can be obtained provided protocol timings are carefully selected. These results were validated using a pre-clinical data set that was synthetically multiplexed. The results indicate that the dual acquisition of 18F-FMISO and 18F-FDOPA could be feasible in the clinical setting. The proposed framework could also be used to design protocols for other tracers.

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McRae, B.H.; Schumaker, N.H.; McKane, R.B.; Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; Burdick, C.A.

2008-01-01

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Sensei: A Multi-Modal Framework for Assessing Stress Resiliency

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-01

interest for the second subject is the upturn in the GSR response before the start of the Stroop test, possibly indicating some anticipatory stress ...Framework for Assessing Stress Resiliency (March 1-31, 2013) From: Ajay Divakaran, Technical Leader Jeffrey Lubin, Senior Research Scientist Joe...Period 15 (March 2013): Task 3.1: Capture Behavioral Stress Markers in Real-Time in Lab Environment with graded exposure to ICT’s scenarios MAC 1-6

Characterizing Wheel-Soil Interaction Loads Using Meshfree Finite Element Methods: A Sensitivity Analysis for Design Trade Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Contreras, Michael T.; Trease, Brian P.; Bojanowski, Cezary; Kulakx, Ronald F.

2013-01-01

A wheel experiencing sinkage and slippage events poses a high risk to planetary rover missions as evidenced by the mobility challenges endured by the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) project. Current wheel design practice utilizes loads derived from a series of events in the life cycle of the rover which do not include (1) failure metrics related to wheel sinkage and slippage and (2) performance trade-offs based on grouser placement/orientation. Wheel designs are rigorously tested experimentally through a variety of drive scenarios and simulated soil environments; however, a robust simulation capability is still in development due to myriad of complex interaction phenomena that contribute to wheel sinkage and slippage conditions such as soil composition, large deformation soil behavior, wheel geometry, nonlinear contact forces, terrain irregularity, etc. For the purposes of modeling wheel sinkage and slippage at an engineering scale, meshfree nite element approaches enable simulations that capture su cient detail of wheel-soil interaction while remaining computationally feasible. This study implements the JPL wheel-soil benchmark problem in the commercial code environment utilizing the large deformation modeling capability of Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) meshfree methods. The nominal, benchmark wheel-soil interaction model that produces numerically stable and physically realistic results is presented and simulations are shown for both wheel traverse and wheel sinkage cases. A sensitivity analysis developing the capability and framework for future ight applications is conducted to illustrate the importance of perturbations to critical material properties and parameters. Implementation of the proposed soil-wheel interaction simulation capability and associated sensitivity framework has the potential to reduce experimentation cost and improve the early stage wheel design proce

Robust planning of sanitation services in urban informal settlements: An analytical framework.

PubMed

Schmitt, Rafael J P; Morgenroth, Eberhard; Larsen, Tove A

2017-03-01

New types of sanitation services are emerging to tackle the sanitation crisis in informal settlements. These services link toilet facilities to semi-decentralized treatment plants via frequent, road-based transport of excreta. However, information for the planning of such sanitation services is scarce, and their future operating conditions are highly uncertain. The key questions of this paper are therefore: a) what are the drivers behind success or failure of a service-based sanitation system in informal settlements and b) on what scales and under which conditions can such a system operate successfully? To answer these questions, already at an early stage of the planning process, we introduce a stochastic model to analyze a wide range of system designs under varying technical designs, socio-economic factors, and spatial condition. Based on these initial results, we design a sanitation service and use the numeric model to study its reliability and costs over a wide range of scales, i.e., system capacities, from very few to many hundred users per semi-decentralized treatment unit. Key findings are that such a system can only operate within a narrow, but realistic range of conditions. Key requirements are toilet facilities, which can be serviced rapidly, and a flexible workforce. A high density of facilities will also lower the costs. Under these premises, we develop a road-based sanitation service and model its functionality in different settings and under many scenarios. Results show that the developed sanitation system using a single vehicle is scalable (100-700 users), can provide reliable service, and can be cheap (<1.5 c/p/day). Hence, this paper demonstrates opportunities for road-based sanitation in informal settlements and presents a quantitative framework for designing such systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cybersecurity for distributed energy resources and smart inverters

DOE PAGES

Qi, Junjian; Hahn, Adam; Lu, Xiaonan; ...

2016-12-01

The increased penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) will significantly increase the number of devices that are owned and controlled by consumers and third parties. These devices have a significant dependency on digital communication and control, which presents a growing risk from cyber attacks. This paper proposes a holistic attack-resilient framework to protect the the integrated DER and the critical power grid infrastructure from malicious cyber attacks, helping ensure the secure integration of DER without harming the grid reliability and stability. Specifically, we discuss the architecture of the cyber-physical power system with a high penetration of DER and analyze themore » unique cybersecurity challenges introduced by DER integration. Next, we summarize important attack scenarios against DER, propose a systematic DER resilience analysis methodology, and develop effective and quantifiable resilience metrics and design principles. Lastly, we introduce attack prevention, detection, and response measures specifically designed for DER integration across cyber, physical device, and utility layers of the future smart grid.« less

Framework for Defining and Assessing Benefits of a Modular Assembly Design Approach for Exploration Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dorsey, John T.; Collins, Timothy J.; Moe, Rud V.; Doggett,. William R.

2006-01-01

A comprehensive modular assembly system model has been proposed that extends the art from modular hardware, to include in-space assembly, servicing and repair and it s critical components of infrastructure, agents and assembly operations. Benefits of modular assembly have been identified and a set of metrics defined that extends the art beyond the traditional measures of performance, with emphasis on criteria that allow life-cycle mission costs to be used as a figure of merit (and include all substantive terms that have an impact on the evaluation). The modular assembly approach was used as a basis for developing a Solar Electric Transfer Vehicle (SETV) concept and three modular assembly scenarios were developed. The modular assembly approach also allows the SETV to be entered into service much earlier than competing conventional configurations and results in a great deal of versatility in accommodating different launch vehicle payload capabilities, allowing for modules to be pre-assembled before launch or assembled on orbit, without changing the space vehicle design.

Design and implementation of the standards-based personal intelligent self-management system (PICS).

PubMed

von Bargen, Tobias; Gietzelt, Matthias; Britten, Matthias; Song, Bianying; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Kohlmann, Martin; Marschollek, Michael; Haux, Reinhold

2013-01-01

Against the background of demographic change and a diminishing care workforce there is a growing need for personalized decision support. The aim of this paper is to describe the design and implementation of the standards-based personal intelligent care systems (PICS). PICS makes consistent use of internationally accepted standards such as the Health Level 7 (HL7) Arden syntax for the representation of the decision logic, HL7 Clinical Document Architecture for information representation and is based on a open-source service-oriented architecture framework and a business process management system. Its functionality is exemplified for the application scenario of a patient suffering from congestive heart failure. Several vital signs sensors provide data for the decision support system, and a number of flexible communication channels are available for interaction with patient or caregiver. PICS is a standards-based, open and flexible system enabling personalized decision support. Further development will include the implementation of components on small computers and sensor nodes.

Augmenting Probabilistic Risk Assesment with Malevolent Initiators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith; David Schwieder

2011-11-01

As commonly practiced, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in nuclear power plants only considers accident initiators such as natural hazards, equipment failures, and human error. Malevolent initiators are ignored in PRA, but are considered the domain of physical security, which uses vulnerability assessment based on an officially specified threat (design basis threat). This paper explores the implications of augmenting and extending existing PRA models by considering new and modified scenarios resulting from malevolent initiators. Teaming the augmented PRA models with conventional vulnerability assessments can cost-effectively enhance security of a nuclear power plant. This methodology is useful for operatingmore » plants, as well as in the design of new plants. For the methodology, we have proposed an approach that builds on and extends the practice of PRA for nuclear power plants for security-related issues. Rather than only considering 'random' failures, we demonstrated a framework that is able to represent and model malevolent initiating events and associated plant impacts.« less

SmartSIM - a virtual reality simulator for laparoscopy training using a generic physics engine.

PubMed

Khan, Zohaib Amjad; Kamal, Nabeel; Hameed, Asad; Mahmood, Amama; Zainab, Rida; Sadia, Bushra; Mansoor, Shamyl Bin; Hasan, Osman

2017-09-01

Virtual reality (VR) training simulators have started playing a vital role in enhancing surgical skills, such as hand-eye coordination in laparoscopy, and practicing surgical scenarios that cannot be easily created using physical models. We describe a new VR simulator for basic training in laparoscopy, i.e. SmartSIM, which has been developed using a generic open-source physics engine called the simulation open framework architecture (SOFA). This paper describes the systems perspective of SmartSIM including design details of both hardware and software components, while highlighting the critical design decisions. Some of the distinguishing features of SmartSIM include: (i) an easy-to-fabricate custom-built hardware interface; (ii) use of a generic physics engine to facilitate wider accessibility of our work and flexibility in terms of using various graphical modelling algorithms and their implementations; and (iii) an intelligent and smart evaluation mechanism that facilitates unsupervised and independent learning. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cybersecurity for distributed energy resources and smart inverters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qi, Junjian; Hahn, Adam; Lu, Xiaonan

The increased penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) will significantly increase the number of devices that are owned and controlled by consumers and third parties. These devices have a significant dependency on digital communication and control, which presents a growing risk from cyber attacks. This paper proposes a holistic attack-resilient framework to protect the the integrated DER and the critical power grid infrastructure from malicious cyber attacks, helping ensure the secure integration of DER without harming the grid reliability and stability. Specifically, we discuss the architecture of the cyber-physical power system with a high penetration of DER and analyze themore » unique cybersecurity challenges introduced by DER integration. Next, we summarize important attack scenarios against DER, propose a systematic DER resilience analysis methodology, and develop effective and quantifiable resilience metrics and design principles. Lastly, we introduce attack prevention, detection, and response measures specifically designed for DER integration across cyber, physical device, and utility layers of the future smart grid.« less

The Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo): Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCabe, Kevin; Mooney, Meghan E; Sigrin, Benjamin O

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) as a tool to explore the potential role of geothermal distributed energy resources (DERs) in meeting thermal energy demands in the United States. The dGeo model simulates the potential for deployment of geothermal DERs in the residential and commercial sectors of the continental United States for two specific technologies: ground-source heat pumps (GHP) and geothermal direct use (DU) for district heating. To quantify the opportunity space for these technologies, dGeo leverages a highly resolved geospatial database and robust bottom-up, agent-based modeling framework. This design is consistentmore » with others in the family of Distributed Generation Market Demand models (dGen; Sigrin et al. 2016), including the Distributed Solar Market Demand (dSolar) and Distributed Wind Market Demand (dWind) models. dGeo is intended to serve as a long-term scenario-modeling tool. It has the capability to simulate the technical potential, economic potential, market potential, and technology deployment of GHP and DU through the year 2050 under a variety of user-defined input scenarios. Through these capabilities, dGeo can provide substantial analytical value to various stakeholders interested in exploring the effects of various techno-economic, macroeconomic, financial, and policy factors related to the opportunity for GHP and DU in the United States. This report documents the dGeo modeling design, methodology, assumptions, and capabilities.« less

Embedding ecosystem services in coastal planning leads to better outcomes for people and nature

PubMed Central

Arkema, Katie K.; Verutes, Gregory M.; Wood, Spencer A.; Clarke-Samuels, Chantalle; Rosado, Samir; Canto, Maritza; Rosenthal, Amy; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Guannel, Gregory; Toft, Jodie; Faries, Joe; Silver, Jessica M.; Griffin, Robert; Guerry, Anne D.

2015-01-01

Recent calls for ocean planning envision informed management of social and ecological systems to sustain delivery of ecosystem services to people. However, until now, no coastal and marine planning process has applied an ecosystem-services framework to understand how human activities affect the flow of benefits, to create scenarios, and to design a management plan. We developed models that quantify services provided by corals, mangroves, and seagrasses. We used these models within an extensive engagement process to design a national spatial plan for Belize’s coastal zone. Through iteration of modeling and stakeholder engagement, we developed a preferred plan, currently under formal consideration by the Belizean government. Our results suggest that the preferred plan will lead to greater returns from coastal protection and tourism than outcomes from scenarios oriented toward achieving either conservation or development goals. The plan will also reduce impacts to coastal habitat and increase revenues from lobster fishing relative to current management. By accounting for spatial variation in the impacts of coastal and ocean activities on benefits that ecosystems provide to people, our models allowed stakeholders and policymakers to refine zones of human use. The final version of the preferred plan improved expected coastal protection by >25% and more than doubled the revenue from fishing, compared with earlier versions based on stakeholder preferences alone. Including outcomes in terms of ecosystem-service supply and value allowed for explicit consideration of multiple benefits from oceans and coasts that typically are evaluated separately in management decisions. PMID:26082545