Simulation analysis of resource flexibility on healthcare processes.

PubMed

Simwita, Yusta W; Helgheim, Berit I

2016-01-01

This paper uses discrete event simulation to explore the best resource flexibility scenario and examine the effect of implementing resource flexibility on different stages of patient treatment process. Specifically we investigate the effect of resource flexibility on patient waiting time and throughput in an orthopedic care process. We further seek to explore on how implementation of resource flexibility on patient treatment processes affects patient access to healthcare services. We focus on two resources, namely, orthopedic surgeon and operating room. The observational approach was used to collect process data. The developed model was validated by comparing the simulation output with actual patient data collected from the studied orthopedic care process. We developed different scenarios to identify the best resource flexibility scenario and explore the effect of resource flexibility on patient waiting time, throughput, and future changes in demand. The developed scenarios focused on creating flexibility on service capacity of this care process by altering the amount of additional human resource capacity at different stages of patient care process and extending the use of operating room capacity. The study found that resource flexibility can improve responsiveness to patient demand in the treatment process. Testing different scenarios showed that the introduction of resource flexibility reduces patient waiting time and improves throughput. The simulation results show that patient access to health services can be improved by implementing resource flexibility at different stages of the patient treatment process. This study contributes to the current health care literature by explaining how implementing resource flexibility at different stages of patient care processes can improve ability to respond to increasing patients demands. This study was limited to a single patient process; studies focusing on additional processes are recommended.

FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

Applying Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Support Quantitative Safety Analysis for Proposed Reduced Wake Separation Conops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortle, John F.; Allocco, Michael

2005-01-01

This paper describes a scenario-driven hazard analysis process to identify, eliminate, and control safety-related risks. Within this process, we develop selective criteria to determine the applicability of applying engineering modeling to hypothesized hazard scenarios. This provides a basis for evaluating and prioritizing the scenarios as candidates for further quantitative analysis. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for closely spaced parallel runways. For arrivals, the process identified 43 core hazard scenarios. Of these, we classified 12 as appropriate for further quantitative modeling, 24 that should be mitigated through controls, recommendations, and / or procedures (that is, scenarios not appropriate for quantitative modeling), and 7 that have the lowest priority for further analysis.

Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David B.; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

2016-01-01

The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

Medical Simulations for Exploration Medicine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reyes, David; Suresh, Rahul; Pavela, James; Urbina, Michelle; Mindock, Jennifer; Antonsen, Erik

2018-01-01

Medical simulation is a useful tool that can be used to train personnel, develop medical processes, and assist cross-disciplinary communication. Medical simulations have been used in the past at NASA for these purposes, however they are usually created ad hoc. A stepwise approach to scenario development has not previously been used. The NASA Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) created a medical scenario development tool to test medical procedures, technologies, concepts of operation and for use in systems engineering (SE) processes.

A Scenario-Based Process for Requirements Development: Application to Mission Operations Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Duane L.; Boyles, Carole A.

2008-01-01

The notion of using operational scenarios as part of requirements development during mission formulation (Phases A & B) is widely accepted as good system engineering practice. In the context of developing a Mission Operations System (MOS), there are numerous practical challenges to translating that notion into the cost-effective development of a useful set of requirements. These challenges can include such issues as a lack of Project-level focus on operations issues, insufficient or improper flowdown of requirements, flowdown of immature or poor-quality requirements from Project level, and MOS resource constraints (personnel expertise and/or dollars). System engineering theory must be translated into a practice that provides enough structure and standards to serve as guidance, but that retains sufficient flexibility to be tailored to the needs and constraints of a particular MOS or Project. We describe a detailed, scenario-based process for requirements development. Identifying a set of attributes for high quality requirements, we show how the portions of the process address many of those attributes. We also find that the basic process steps are robust, and can be effective even in challenging Project environments.

[Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios].

PubMed

Jiang, Oun-ou; Deng, Xiang-zheng; Ke, Xin-li; Zhao, Chun-hong; Zhang, Wei

2014-12-01

The sizes and number of cities in China are increasing rapidly and complicated changes of urban land use system have occurred as the social economy develops rapidly. This study took the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta Region as the study area to explore the driving mechanism of dynamic changes of urban area in the urbanization process under the joint influence of natural environment and social economic conditions. Then the CA (cellular automata) model was used to predict and simulate the urban area changes until 2030 under the designed scenarios of planning and RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The results indicated that urbanization was mainly driven by the non-agricultural population growth and social-economic development, and the transportation had played a fundamental role in the whole process, while the areas with high elevation or steep slope restricted the urbanization. Besides, the urban area would keep an expanding trend regardless of the scenarios, however, the expanding speed would slow down with different inflection points under different scenarios. The urban expansion speed increased in the sequence of the planning scenario, MESSAGE scenario and AIM scenario, and that under the MESSAGE climate scenario was more consistent with the current urban development trend. In addition, the urban expansion would mainly concentrate in regions with the relatively high urbanization level, e.g., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Chaoshan.

Engaging Stakeholders through Participatory Mapping and Spatial Analysis in a Scenarios Process for Alaska's North Slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fradkin, B.; Vargas, J. C.; Lee, O. A.; Emperador, S.

2016-12-01

A scenarios process was conducted for Alaska's North Slope to consider the wide range of drivers of change and uncertainties that could contribute to shifts in research and monitoring needs over the next 25 years. The project team, consisting of specialists in participatory scenarios and academic researchers, developed an interactive approach that helped facilitate the exploration of a range of plausible changes in the region. Over two years, the team designed and executed a series of workshops to capitalize on the collective expertise of researchers, resource managers, industry representatives, and traditional and local knowledge holders on the North Slope. The goal of this process was to evaluate three energy and resource development scenarios, which incorporated biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, to assess the implications of development on high-priority biophysical resources and the subsistence lifestyle and well-being of its Inupiat residents. Due to the diversity of the stakeholders engaged in the process, the workshop materials and activities had to be carefully designed and executed, in order to provide an adequate platform for discussion of each scenario component, as well as generating products that would provide management-relevant information to the NSSI and its member entities. Each workshop implemented a participatory mapping component, which relied on the best available geospatial datasets to generate informational maps that enabled participants to effectively consider a wide range of variables and outcomes for each of the selected scenarios. In addition, the map sketches produced in each workshop were digitized and incorporated into a spatial analysis that evaluated the level of agreement between stakeholder groups, as well as evaluating the geographic overlap of development features and anticipated implications with terrestrial and marine habitats, subsistence hunting zones, and sensitive landscape elements such as permafrost. This presentation will focus on how participatory mapping and analysis aided in eliciting stakeholder input and working towards consensus through a process that engaged a diverse group of parties concerned with the region's future research and monitoring needs.

Economic Impact of NMMO Pretreatment on Ethanol and Biogas Production from Pinewood

PubMed Central

Zilouei, Hamid; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J.

2014-01-01

Processes for ethanol and biogas (scenario 1) and biomethane (scenario 2) production from pinewood improved by N-methylmorpholine-N-oxide (NMMO) pretreatment were developed and simulated by Aspen plus. These processes were compared with two processes using steam explosion instead of NMMO pretreatment ethanol (scenario 3) and biomethane (scenario 4) production, and the economies of all processes were evaluated by Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. Gasoline equivalent prices of the products including 25% value added tax (VAT) and selling and distribution expenses for scenarios 1 to 4 were, respectively, 1.40, 1.20, 1.24, and 1.04 €/l, which are lower than gasoline price. The profitability indexes for scenarios 1 to 4 were 1.14, 0.93, 1.16, and 0.96, respectively. Despite the lower manufacturing costs of biomethane, the profitability indexes of these processes were lower than those of the bioethanol processes, because of higher capital requirements. The results showed that taxing rule is an effective parameter on the economy of the biofuels. The gasoline equivalent prices of the biofuels were 15–37% lower than gasoline; however, 37% of the gasoline price contributes to energy and carbon dioxide tax which are not included in the prices of biofuels based on the Swedish taxation rules. PMID:25276777

Economic impact of NMMO pretreatment on ethanol and biogas production from pinewood.

PubMed

Shafiei, Marzieh; Karimi, Keikhosro; Zilouei, Hamid; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J

2014-01-01

Processes for ethanol and biogas (scenario 1) and biomethane (scenario 2) production from pinewood improved by N-methylmorpholine-N-oxide (NMMO) pretreatment were developed and simulated by Aspen plus. These processes were compared with two processes using steam explosion instead of NMMO pretreatment ethanol (scenario 3) and biomethane (scenario 4) production, and the economies of all processes were evaluated by Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. Gasoline equivalent prices of the products including 25% value added tax (VAT) and selling and distribution expenses for scenarios 1 to 4 were, respectively, 1.40, 1.20, 1.24, and 1.04 €/l, which are lower than gasoline price. The profitability indexes for scenarios 1 to 4 were 1.14, 0.93, 1.16, and 0.96, respectively. Despite the lower manufacturing costs of biomethane, the profitability indexes of these processes were lower than those of the bioethanol processes, because of higher capital requirements. The results showed that taxing rule is an effective parameter on the economy of the biofuels. The gasoline equivalent prices of the biofuels were 15-37% lower than gasoline; however, 37% of the gasoline price contributes to energy and carbon dioxide tax which are not included in the prices of biofuels based on the Swedish taxation rules.

A framework for considering climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : lessons learned from an interagency pilot project on Cape Cod.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-07-01

The Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Pilot Project utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multi-agency transportation- and land use-focused development strategy for Cape Cod, Massachusetts, with the intention of ach...

Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

PubMed

Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

2018-03-15

Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global change impacts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coupling urban growth scenarios with nearshore biophysical change models to inform coastal restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrd, K. B.; Kreitler, J.; Labiosa, W.

2010-12-01

A scenario represents an account of a plausible future given logical assumptions about how conditions change over discrete bounds of space and time. Development of multiple scenarios provides a means to identify alternative directions of urban growth that account for a range of uncertainty in human behavior. Interactions between human and natural processes may be studied by coupling urban growth scenario outputs with biophysical change models; if growth scenarios encompass a sufficient range of alternative futures, scenario assumptions serve to constrain the uncertainty of biophysical models. Spatially explicit urban growth models (map-based) produce output such as distributions and densities of residential or commercial development in a GIS format that can serve as input to other models. Successful fusion of growth model outputs with other model inputs requires that both models strategically address questions of interest, incorporate ecological feedbacks, and minimize error. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that supports land use and restoration planning in Puget Sound, Washington, a 35,500 sq. km region. The PSEPM couples future scenarios of urban growth with statistical, process-based and rule-based models of nearshore biophysical changes and ecosystem services. By using a multi-criteria approach, the PSEPM identifies cross-system and cumulative threats to the nearshore environment plus opportunities for conservation and restoration. Sub-models that predict changes in nearshore biophysical condition were developed and existing models were integrated to evaluate three growth scenarios: 1) Status Quo, 2) Managed Growth, and 3) Unconstrained Growth. These decadal scenarios were developed and projected out to 2060 at Oregon State University using the GIS-based ENVISION model. Given land management decisions and policies under each growth scenario, the sub-models predicted changes in 1) fecal coliform in shellfish growing areas, 2) sediment supply to beaches, 3) State beach recreational visits, 4) eelgrass habitat suitability, 5) forage fish habitat suitability, and 6) nutrient loadings. In some cases thousands of shoreline units were evaluated with multiple predictive models, creating a need for streamlined and consistent database development and data processing. Model development over multiple disciplines demonstrated the challenge of merging data types from multiple sources that were inconsistent in spatial and temporal resolution, classification schemes, and topology. Misalignment of data in space and time created potential for error and misinterpretation of results. This effort revealed that the fusion of growth scenarios and biophysical models requires an up-front iterative adjustment of both scenarios and models so that growth model outputs provide the needed input data in the correct format. Successful design of data flow across models that includes feedbacks between human and ecological systems was found to enhance the use of the final data product for decision making.

Scenario Development Process at the Vertical Motion Simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reardon, Scott E.; Beard, Steven D.; Lewis, Emily

2017-01-01

There has been a significant effort within the simulation community to standardize many aspects of flight simulation. More recently, an effort has begun to develop a formal scenario definition language for aviation. A working group within the AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee has been created to develop a standard aviation scenario definition language, though much of the initial effort has been tailored to training simulators. Research and development (R&D) simulators, like the Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS), and training simulators have different missions and thus have different scenario requirements. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some of the unique tasks and scenario elements used at the VMS so they may be captured by scenario standardization efforts. The VMS most often performs handling qualities studies and transfer of training studies. Three representative handling qualities simulation studies and two transfer of training simulation studies are described in this paper. Unique scenario elements discussed in this paper included special out-the-window (OTW) targets and environmental conditions, motion system parameters, active inceptor parameters, and configurable vehicle math model parameters.

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment.

PubMed

Retèl, Valesca P; Joore, Manuela A; Linn, Sabine C; Rutgers, Emiel J T; van Harten, Wim H

2012-08-16

Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020). In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of scenario drafting into a decision model may reveal unanticipated developments and can demonstrate a range of possible cost-effectiveness outcomes. The effect of scenarios give additional information on the speed with cost effectiveness might be reached and thus provide a more realistic picture for policy makers, opinion leaders and manufacturers.

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020). Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of scenario drafting into a decision model may reveal unanticipated developments and can demonstrate a range of possible cost-effectiveness outcomes. The effect of scenarios give additional information on the speed with cost effectiveness might be reached and thus provide a more realistic picture for policy makers, opinion leaders and manufacturers. PMID:22894140

The Soil Model Development and Intercomparison Panel (SoilMIP) of the International Soil Modeling Consortium (ISMC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanderborght, Jan; Priesack, Eckart

2017-04-01

The Soil Model Development and Intercomparison Panel (SoilMIP) is an initiative of the International Soil Modeling Consortium. Its mission is to foster the further development of soil models that can predict soil functions and their changes (i) due to soil use and land management and (ii) due to external impacts of climate change and pollution. Since soil functions and soil threats are diverse but linked with each other, the overall aim is to develop holistic models that represent the key functions of the soil system and the links between them. These models should be scaled up and integrated in terrestrial system models that describe the feedbacks between processes in the soil and the other terrestrial compartments. We propose and illustrate a few steps that could be taken to achieve these goals. A first step is the development of scenarios that compare simulations by models that predict the same or different soil services. Scenarios can be considered at three different levels of comparisons: scenarios that compare the numerics (accuracy but also speed) of models, scenarios that compare the effect of differences in process descriptions, and scenarios that compare simulations with experimental data. A second step involves the derivation of metrics or summary statistics that effectively compare model simulations and disentangle parameterization from model concept differences. These metrics can be used to evaluate how more complex model simulations can be represented by simpler models using an appropriate parameterization. A third step relates to the parameterization of models. Application of simulation models implies that appropriate model parameters have to be defined for a range of environmental conditions and locations. Spatial modelling approaches are used to derive parameter distributions. Considering that soils and their properties emerge from the interaction between physical, chemical and biological processes, the combination of spatial models with process models would lead to consistent parameter distributions correlations and could potentially represent self-organizing processes in soils and landscapes.

Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

2007-05-01

Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

The development of multi-objective optimization model for excess bagasse utilization: A case study for Thailand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buddadee, Bancha; Wirojanagud, Wanpen; Watts, Daniel J.

In this paper, a multi-objective optimization model is proposed as a tool to assist in deciding for the proper utilization scheme of excess bagasse produced in sugarcane industry. Two major scenarios for excess bagasse utilization are considered in the optimization. The first scenario is the typical situation when excess bagasse is used for the onsite electricity production. In case of the second scenario, excess bagasse is processed for the offsite ethanol production. Then the ethanol is blended with an octane rating of 91 gasoline by a portion of 10% and 90% by volume respectively and the mixture is used asmore » alternative fuel for gasoline vehicles in Thailand. The model proposed in this paper called 'Environmental System Optimization' comprises the life cycle impact assessment of global warming potential (GWP) and the associated cost followed by the multi-objective optimization which facilitates in finding out the optimal proportion of the excess bagasse processed in each scenario. Basic mathematical expressions for indicating the GWP and cost of the entire process of excess bagasse utilization are taken into account in the model formulation and optimization. The outcome of this study is the methodology developed for decision-making concerning the excess bagasse utilization available in Thailand in view of the GWP and economic effects. A demonstration example is presented to illustrate the advantage of the methodology which may be used by the policy maker. The methodology developed is successfully performed to satisfy both environmental and economic objectives over the whole life cycle of the system. It is shown in the demonstration example that the first scenario results in positive GWP while the second scenario results in negative GWP. The combination of these two scenario results in positive or negative GWP depending on the preference of the weighting given to each objective. The results on economics of all scenarios show the satisfied outcomes.« less

Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

2015-12-01

Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

Mise en Scene: Conversion of Scenarios to CSP Traces for the Requirements-to-Design-to-Code Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carter. John D.; Gardner, William B.; Rash, James L.; Hinchey, Michael G.

2007-01-01

The "Requirements-to-Design-to-Code" (R2D2C) project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is based on deriving a formal specification expressed in Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) notation from system requirements supplied in the form of CSP traces. The traces, in turn, are to be extracted from scenarios, a user-friendly medium often used to describe the required behavior of computer systems under development. This work, called Mise en Scene, defines a new scenario medium (Scenario Notation Language, SNL) suitable for control-dominated systems, coupled with a two-stage process for automatic translation of scenarios to a new trace medium (Trace Notation Language, TNL) that encompasses CSP traces. Mise en Scene is offered as an initial solution to the problem of the scenarios-to-traces "D2" phase of R2D2C. A survey of the "scenario" concept and some case studies are also provided.

Scenarios and US National Climate Assessments: Where have they been and where could they go?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leidner, A. K.

2015-12-01

U.S. National Climate Assessments (NCA), conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, analyze the effects of global change on the United States and examine current and projected changes out to 100 years. Scenarios of global change have been incorporated in all NCAs to date, although such scenarios have typically been developed late in the assessment cycle, limiting the depth of their use in regional and sectoral assessments. This lack of use is particularly notable for scenarios focused on aspects other than climate and associated projections of temperature and precipitation. Here, we review how scenarios have been incorporated in previous NCAs and present potential options for both the development and inclusion of a wider range of scenarios topics in future quadrennial NCA reports and other sustained assessment activities within USGCRP and federal agencies. Incorporating a broad range of U.S. scenarios will present both intellectual and programmatic challenges, as scenario developers from relatively disparate communities will need to come together to create internally consistent assumptions within each type of scenario (e.g. climate, land cover and land use, population) for sub-national scales. As USGCRP moves forward with a sustained assessment process, a richer set of scenarios can serve as a bridge between the research community, decision makers, and practitioners.

Automatic Synthesis of UML Designs from Requirements in an Iterative Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schumann, Johann; Whittle, Jon; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Unified Modeling Language (UML) is gaining wide popularity for the design of object-oriented systems. UML combines various object-oriented graphical design notations under one common framework. A major factor for the broad acceptance of UML is that it can be conveniently used in a highly iterative, Use Case (or scenario-based) process (although the process is not a part of UML). Here, the (pre-) requirements for the software are specified rather informally as Use Cases and a set of scenarios. A scenario can be seen as an individual trace of a software artifact. Besides first sketches of a class diagram to illustrate the static system breakdown, scenarios are a favorite way of communication with the customer, because scenarios describe concrete interactions between entities and are thus easy to understand. Scenarios with a high level of detail are often expressed as sequence diagrams. Later in the design and implementation stage (elaboration and implementation phases), a design of the system's behavior is often developed as a set of statecharts. From there (and the full-fledged class diagram), actual code development is started. Current commercial UML tools support this phase by providing code generators for class diagrams and statecharts. In practice, it can be observed that the transition from requirements to design to code is a highly iterative process. In this talk, a set of algorithms is presented which perform reasonable synthesis and transformations between different UML notations (sequence diagrams, Object Constraint Language (OCL) constraints, statecharts). More specifically, we will discuss the following transformations: Statechart synthesis, introduction of hierarchy, consistency of modifications, and "design-debugging".

Automated Simulation For Analysis And Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cantwell, E.; Shenk, Tim; Robinson, Peter; Upadhye, R.

1992-01-01

Design Assistant Workstation (DAWN) software being developed to facilitate simulation of qualitative and quantitative aspects of behavior of life-support system in spacecraft, chemical-processing plant, heating and cooling system of large building, or any of variety of systems including interacting process streams and processes. Used to analyze alternative design scenarios or specific designs of such systems. Expert system will automate part of design analysis: reason independently by simulating design scenarios and return to designer with overall evaluations and recommendations.

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment.

PubMed

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-02-05

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8-61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9-58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3-45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47, and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security.

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

PubMed Central

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-01-01

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

Thermal Model Development for Ares I-X

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amundsen, Ruth M.; DelCorso, Joe

2008-01-01

Thermal analysis for the Ares I-X vehicle has involved extensive thermal model integration, since thermal models of vehicle elements came from several different NASA and industry organizations. Many valuable lessons were learned in terms of model integration and validation. Modeling practices such as submodel, analysis group and symbol naming were standardized to facilitate the later model integration. Upfront coordination of coordinate systems, timelines, units, symbols and case scenarios was very helpful in minimizing integration rework. A process for model integration was developed that included pre-integration runs and basic checks of both models, and a step-by-step process to efficiently integrate one model into another. Extensive use of model logic was used to create scenarios and timelines for avionics and air flow activation. Efficient methods of model restart between case scenarios were developed. Standardization of software version and even compiler version between organizations was found to be essential. An automated method for applying aeroheating to the full integrated vehicle model, including submodels developed by other organizations, was developed.

Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

2008-07-08

The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

Southern Regional Center for Lightweight Innovative Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Paul T.

The Southern Regional Center for Lightweight Innovative Design (SRCLID) has developed an experimentally validated cradle-to-grave modeling and simulation effort to optimize automotive components in order to decrease weight and cost, yet increase performance and safety in crash scenarios. In summary, the three major objectives of this project are accomplished: To develop experimentally validated cradle-to-grave modeling and simulation tools to optimize automotive and truck components for lightweighting materials (aluminum, steel, and Mg alloys and polymer-based composites) with consideration of uncertainty to decrease weight and cost, yet increase the performance and safety in impact scenarios; To develop multiscale computational models that quantifymore » microstructure-property relations by evaluating various length scales, from the atomic through component levels, for each step of the manufacturing process for vehicles; and To develop an integrated K-12 educational program to educate students on lightweighting designs and impact scenarios. In this final report, we divided the content into two parts: the first part contains the development of building blocks for the project, including materials and process models, process-structure-property (PSP) relationship, and experimental validation capabilities; the second part presents the demonstration task for Mg front-end work associated with USAMP projects.« less

Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

2015-04-01

It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The established precipitation-ETo covariations are used to inform the scenario construction process. Additionally, the back-tracking of extreme flows from driving scenarios allows for a diagnosis of the physical responses to climate change scenarios. The method is demonstrated through the application of scenarios from 10 Regional Climate Models,21 Global Climate Models and selected catchments in central Belgium. Reference Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., & Willems, P. (2014). Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments. Journal of Hydrology, 508, 307-321.

Dark scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

Development of Optimal Stressor Scenarios for New Operational Energy Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

Analyzing the previous model using a design of experiments (DOE) and regression analysis provides critical information about the associated operational...from experimentation. The resulting system requirements can be used to revisit the design requirements and develop a more robust system. This process...stressor scenarios for acceptance testing. Analyzing the previous model using a design of experiments (DOE) and regression analysis provides critical

Integrating ecosystem services analysis into scenario planning practice: accounting for street tree benefits with i-Tree valuation in Central Texas.

PubMed

Hilde, Thomas; Paterson, Robert

2014-12-15

Scenario planning continues to gain momentum in the United States as an effective process for building consensus on long-range community plans and creating regional visions for the future. However, efforts to integrate more sophisticated information into the analytical framework to help identify important ecosystem services have lagged in practice. This is problematic because understanding the tradeoffs of land consumption patterns on ecological integrity is central to mitigating the environmental degradation caused by land use change and new development. In this paper we describe how an ecosystem services valuation model, i-Tree, was integrated into a mainstream scenario planning software tool, Envision Tomorrow, to assess the benefits of public street trees for alternative future development scenarios. The tool is then applied to development scenarios from the City of Hutto, TX, a Central Texas Sustainable Places Project demonstration community. The integrated tool represents a methodological improvement for scenario planning practice, offers a way to incorporate ecosystem services analysis into mainstream planning processes, and serves as an example of how open source software tools can expand the range of issues available for community and regional planning consideration, even in cases where community resources are limited. The tool also offers room for future improvements; feasible options include canopy analysis of various future land use typologies, as well as a generalized street tree model for broader U.S. application. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of Regionally Ecological Land Based on a Cellular Automation Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

2012-01-01

Ecological land is like the “liver” of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem. PMID:23066410

Simulation of regionally ecological land based on a cellular automation model: a case study of Beijing, China.

PubMed

Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

2012-08-01

Ecological land is like the "liver" of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem.

Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

2016-04-01

Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as an important element in management and decision-making as problems in today's world are complex and require knowledge from many different domains and disciplines. Participation is also said to be a process of collective learning that changes the way people think and act which is a relevant point in forming appropriate region-specific climate adaptation strategies. The scenarios are based on an analysis of data on recent states and trends in major local sector developments concerning absolute and relative employment and value creation as well as on distinct socio-demographic developments in the region. Categories discussed in the scenario workshop cover inter alia institutions and governance, demographics, production and demand, markets, value-chains and trade, scientific and technological innovations, education and health. The derived stakeholder-based socio-economic scenarios were, in a second step, matched with the Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) in order to frame the locally produced scenarios with global narratives. Both strains were, in a third step, combined and backed-up by scientific literature in order to build the local socio-economic scenarios that served as background information in the analysis of risks, vulnerability and appropriate adaptation measures in the case-study region.

Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Change Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Brewington, L.; Finucane, M.

2015-12-01

For the last century, the island of Maui in Hawai'i has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to both surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for sustainable future freshwater supply in Hawai'i requires adaptive policies and decision-making that emphasizes private and public partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. We have downscaled dynamical climate models to 1 km resolution in Maui and coupled them with a USGS Water Budget model and a participatory scenario building process to quantify future changes in island-scale climate and groundwater recharge under different land uses. Although these projections are uncertain, the integrated nature of the Pacific RISA research program has allowed us to take a multi-pronged approach to facilitate the uptake of climate information into policy and management. This presentation details the ongoing work to support the development of Hawai'i's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of ~100 decision-makers in state and local government, watershed restoration, agriculture, and conservation to 1) determine the type of information (climate variables, land use and development, agricultural practices) they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of nested scenarios that represent alternative climate and management futures. This integration of knowledge is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives of complex futures comprised of information at multiple scales. We will present an overview of the downscaling, scenario building, hydrological modeling processes, and stakeholder response.

Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

2014-12-01

Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The Line' scenarios. Statistical analysis of the scenario-based variations in impacts to private and public resources can help guide future adaptation policy implementation and support Oregon's coastal communities for years to come.

FEST-C 1.3 & 2.0 for CMAQ Bi-directional NH3, Crop Production, and SWAT Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) is developed in a Linux environment, a festc JAVA interface that integrates 14 tools and scenario management options facilitating land use/crop data processing for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system ...

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces of land change, and is transferable to other case study areas with different land use change processes and consequences. The framework starts with the involvement of stakeholders where driving forces of land use change are being studied by performing interviews and group discussions. In order to bridge the gap between qualitative methods and conventional geospatial techniques, we applied cognitive mapping and the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact and Response framework (DPSIR) to develop a conceptual land use change model. This was later transformed into a spatially explicit land use change model based on remote sensing data, GIS and cellular automata spatial allocation. The methodology was developed and applied in a study area in the eastern Italian Alps, where the uncertainties regarding future urban expansion are high. Later, we transferred it to a study area in the Romanian Carpathians, where the identified prevailing process of land use change is deforestation. Both areas are subject to hydro-meteorological risk, posing a need for the analysis of the possible future spatial pattern and locations of land use change. The resulting scenarios enabled us, to point at identifying hot-spots of land use change, serving as a possible input for a risk assessment.

[New paradigm for soil and water conservation: a method based on watershed process modeling and scenario analysis].

PubMed

Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, La-Jiao; Qin, Cheng-Zhi; Wang, Ping; Liu, Jun-Zhi; Li, Run-Kui; Cai, Qiang-Guo

2012-07-01

With the increase of severe soil erosion problem, soil and water conservation has become an urgent concern for sustainable development. Small watershed experimental observation is the traditional paradigm for soil and water control. However, the establishment of experimental watershed usually takes long time, and has the limitations of poor repeatability and high cost. Moreover, the popularization of the results from the experimental watershed is limited for other areas due to the differences in watershed conditions. Therefore, it is not sufficient to completely rely on this old paradigm for soil and water loss control. Recently, scenario analysis based on watershed modeling has been introduced into watershed management, which can provide information about the effectiveness of different management practices based on the quantitative simulation of watershed processes. Because of its merits such as low cost, short period, and high repeatability, scenario analysis shows great potential in aiding the development of watershed management strategy. This paper elaborated a new paradigm using watershed modeling and scenario analysis for soil and water conservation, illustrated this new paradigm through two cases for practical watershed management, and explored the future development of this new soil and water conservation paradigm.

US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John

This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for releasemore » in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in climate and related environmental conditions (e.g., sea level), and evolution of societal capability to respond to climate change. This wide range of scenarios is needed because the implications of climate change for the environment and society depend not only on changes in climate themselves, but also on human responses. This degree of breadth introduces and number of challenges for communication and research.« less

The use of concept maps during knowledge elicitation in ontology development processes – the nutrigenomics use case

PubMed Central

Castro, Alexander Garcia; Rocca-Serra, Philippe; Stevens, Robert; Taylor, Chris; Nashar, Karim; Ragan, Mark A; Sansone, Susanna-Assunta

2006-01-01

Background Incorporation of ontologies into annotations has enabled 'semantic integration' of complex data, making explicit the knowledge within a certain field. One of the major bottlenecks in developing bio-ontologies is the lack of a unified methodology. Different methodologies have been proposed for different scenarios, but there is no agreed-upon standard methodology for building ontologies. The involvement of geographically distributed domain experts, the need for domain experts to lead the design process, the application of the ontologies and the life cycles of bio-ontologies are amongst the features not considered by previously proposed methodologies. Results Here, we present a methodology for developing ontologies within the biological domain. We describe our scenario, competency questions, results and milestones for each methodological stage. We introduce the use of concept maps during knowledge acquisition phases as a feasible transition between domain expert and knowledge engineer. Conclusion The contributions of this paper are the thorough description of the steps we suggest when building an ontology, example use of concept maps, consideration of applicability to the development of lower-level ontologies and application to decentralised environments. We have found that within our scenario conceptual maps played an important role in the development process. PMID:16725019

Performance assessment of multi-frequency processing of ICU chest images for enhanced visualization of tubes and catheters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaohui; Couwenhoven, Mary E.; Foos, David H.; Doran, James; Yankelevitz, David F.; Henschke, Claudia I.

2008-03-01

An image-processing method has been developed to improve the visibility of tube and catheter features in portable chest x-ray (CXR) images captured in the intensive care unit (ICU). The image-processing method is based on a multi-frequency approach, wherein the input image is decomposed into different spatial frequency bands, and those bands that contain the tube and catheter signals are individually enhanced by nonlinear boosting functions. Using a random sampling strategy, 50 cases were retrospectively selected for the study from a large database of portable CXR images that had been collected from multiple institutions over a two-year period. All images used in the study were captured using photo-stimulable, storage phosphor computed radiography (CR) systems. Each image was processed two ways. The images were processed with default image processing parameters such as those used in clinical settings (control). The 50 images were then separately processed using the new tube and catheter enhancement algorithm (test). Three board-certified radiologists participated in a reader study to assess differences in both detection-confidence performance and diagnostic efficiency between the control and test images. Images were evaluated on a diagnostic-quality, 3-megapixel monochrome monitor. Two scenarios were studied: the baseline scenario, representative of today's workflow (a single-control image presented with the window/level adjustments enabled) vs. the test scenario (a control/test image pair presented with a toggle enabled and the window/level settings disabled). The radiologists were asked to read the images in each scenario as they normally would for clinical diagnosis. Trend analysis indicates that the test scenario offers improved reading efficiency while providing as good or better detection capability compared to the baseline scenario.

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

PubMed

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

2017-07-01

The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph

2016-10-01

Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

Ten factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks for health information technology.

PubMed

Russ, Alissa L; Saleem, Jason J

2018-02-01

The quality of usability testing is highly dependent upon the associated usability scenarios. To promote usability testing as part of electronic health record (EHR) certification, the Office of the National Coordinator (ONC) for Health Information Technology requires that vendors test specific capabilities of EHRs with clinical end-users and report their usability testing process - including the test scenarios used - along with the results. The ONC outlines basic expectations for usability testing, but there is little guidance in usability texts or scientific literature on how to develop usability scenarios for healthcare applications. The objective of this article is to outline key factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks to evaluate computer-interface based health information technologies. To achieve this goal, we draw upon a decade of our experience conducting usability tests with a variety of healthcare applications and a wide range of end-users, to include healthcare professionals as well as patients. We discuss 10 key factors that influence scenario development: objectives of usability testing; roles of end-user(s); target performance goals; evaluation time constraints; clinical focus; fidelity; scenario-related bias and confounders; embedded probes; minimize risks to end-users; and healthcare related outcome measures. For each factor, we present an illustrative example. This article is intended to aid usability researchers and practitioners in their efforts to advance health information technologies. The article provides broad guidance on usability scenario development and can be applied to a wide range of clinical information systems and applications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

PubMed

Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

2015-04-01

A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Effects of Computer Animation Exercises on Student Cognitive Processes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fowler, Will

A study examining the effects of computer animation exercises on cognitive development asked two groups of seventh graders to create computer animations, working from a simple mythic text. The ability of students to create narrative scenarios from this mythic text was analyzed. These scenarios were then recreated in the school computer lab, using…

The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User's Guide for Research Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Association of Research Libraries, 2010

2010-01-01

This user's guide was developed to advance local planning at ARL member libraries. It is written for library leaders writ large and for anyone leading or contributing to research library planning processes. Users do not need advanced facilitation skills to benefit from this guide, but facilitators charged with supporting scenario planning will…

Design Process of a Goal-Based Scenario on Computing Fundamentals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beriswill, Joanne Elizabeth

2014-01-01

In this design case, an instructor developed a goal-based scenario (GBS) for undergraduate computer fundamentals students to apply their knowledge of computer equipment and software. The GBS, entitled the MegaTech Project, presented the students with descriptions of the everyday activities of four persons needing to purchase a computer system. The…

Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

PubMed

Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

2018-04-29

This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development

PubMed Central

Abualfaraj, Noura; Olson, Mira S.

2018-01-01

This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study. PMID:29710821

Bridging the sanitation gap between disaster relief and development.

PubMed

Lai, Ka-Man; Ramirez, Claudia; Liu, Weilong; Kirilova, Darina; Vick, David; Mari, Joe; Smith, Rachel; Lam, Ho-Yin; Ostovari, Afshin; Shibakawa, Akifumi; Liu, Yang; Samant, Sidharth; Osaro, Lucky

2015-10-01

By interpreting disasters as opportunities to initiate the fulfilment of development needs, realise the vulnerability of the affected community and environment, and extend the legacy of relief funds and effort, this paper builds upon the concept linking relief, rehabilitation and development (LRRD) in the sanitation sector. It aims to use a composite of case studies to devise a framework for a semi-hypothetical scenario to identify critical components and generic processes for a LRRD action plan. The scenario is based on a latrine wetland sanitation system in a Muslim community. Several sub-frameworks are developed: (i) latrine design; (ii) assessment of human waste treatment; (iii) connective sanitation promotion strategy; and (iv) ecological systems and environmental services for sanitation and development. This scenario illustrates the complex issues involved in LRRD in sanitation work and provides technical notes and references for a legacy plan for disaster relief and development. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

PubMed

Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

2014-03-15

In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Technical Interchange Meeting Guidelines Breakout

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fong, Rob

2002-01-01

Along with concept developers, the Systems Evaluation and Assessment (SEA) sub-element of VAMS will develop those scenarios and metrics required for testing the new concepts that reside within the System-Level Integrated Concepts (SLIC) sub-element in the VAMS project. These concepts will come from the NRA process, space act agreements, a university group, and other NASA researchers. The emphasis of those concepts is to increase capacity while at least maintaining the current safety level. The concept providers will initially develop their own scenarios and metrics for self-evaluation. In about a year, the SEA sub-element will become responsible for conducting initial evaluations of the concepts using a common scenario and metric set. This set may derive many components from the scenarios and metrics used by the concept providers. Ultimately, the common scenario\\metric set will be used to help determine the most feasible and beneficial concepts. A set of 15 questions and issues, discussed below, pertaining to the scenario and metric set, and its use for assessing concepts, was submitted by the SEA sub-element for consideration during the breakout session. The questions were divided among the three breakout groups. Each breakout group deliberated on its set of questions and provided a report on its discussion.

Development and application of a processing model for the Irish dairy industry.

PubMed

Geary, U; Lopez-Villalobos, N; Garrick, D J; Shalloo, L

2010-11-01

A processing-sector model was developed that simulates (i) milk collection, (ii) standardization, and (iii) product manufacture. The model estimates the product yield, net milk value, and component values of milk based on milk quantity, composition, product portfolio, and product values. Product specifications of cheese, butter, skim and whole milk powders, liquid milk, and casein are met through milk separation followed by reconstitution in appropriate proportions. Excess cream or skim milk are used in other product manufacture. Volume-related costs, including milk collection, standardization, and processing costs, and product-related costs, including processing costs per tonne, packaging, storage, distribution, and marketing, are quantified. Operating costs, incurred irrespective of milk received and processing activities, are included in the model on a fixed-rate basis. The net milk value is estimated as sale value less total costs. The component values of fat and protein were estimated from net milk value using the marginal rate of technical substitution. Two product portfolio scenarios were examined: scenario 1 was representative of the Irish product mix in 2000, in which 27, 39, 13, and 21% of the milk pool was processed into cheese (€ 3,291.33/t), butter (€ 2,766.33/t), whole milk powder (€ 2,453.33/t), and skim milk powder (€ 2,017.00/t), respectively, and scenario 2 was representative of the 2008 product mix, in which 43, 30, 14, and 13% was processed into cheese, butter, whole milk powder, and skim milk powder, respectively, and sold at the same market prices. Within both scenarios 3 milk compositions were considered, which were representative of (i) typical Irish Holstein-Friesian, (ii) Jersey, and (iii) the New Zealand strain of Holstein-Friesian, each of which had differing milk constituents. The effect each milk composition had on product yield, processing costs, total revenue, component values of milk, and the net value of milk was examined. The value per liter of milk in scenario 1 was 24.8, 30.8, and 27.4 cents for Irish Holstein-Friesian, Jersey, and New Zealand strain of Holstein-Friesian milk, respectively. In scenario 2 the value per liter of milk was 26.1, 32.6, and 28.9 cents for Irish Holstein-Friesian, Jersey, and New Zealand strain of Holstein-Friesian milk, respectively. Copyright © 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MisTec - A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horsham, Gary A. P.

1992-01-01

This structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this kind of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

Development of DCGLs by using both probabilistic and deterministic analyses in RESRAD (onsite) and RESRAD-OFFSITE codes.

PubMed

Kamboj, Sunita; Yu, Charley; Johnson, Robert

2013-05-01

The Derived Concentration Guideline Levels for two building areas previously used in waste processing and storage at Argonne National Laboratory were developed using both probabilistic and deterministic radiological environmental pathway analysis. Four scenarios were considered. The two current uses considered were on-site industrial use and off-site residential use with farming. The two future uses (i.e., after an institutional control period of 100 y) were on-site recreational use and on-site residential use with farming. The RESRAD-OFFSITE code was used for the current-use off-site residential/farming scenario and RESRAD (onsite) was used for the other three scenarios. Contaminants of concern were identified from the past operations conducted in the buildings and the actual characterization done at the site. Derived Concentration Guideline Levels were developed for all four scenarios using deterministic and probabilistic approaches, which include both "peak-of-the-means" and "mean-of-the-peaks" analyses. The future-use on-site residential/farming scenario resulted in the most restrictive Derived Concentration Guideline Levels for most radionuclides.

MisTec: A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horsham, Gary A. P.

1991-01-01

The structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this king of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

An Information Theoretic Approach for Measuring Data Discovery and Utilization During Analytical and Decision Making Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-31

and make the expected decision outcomes. The scenario is based around a scripted storyboard where an organized crime network is operating in a city to...interdicted by law enforcement to disrupt the network. The scenario storyboard was used to develop a probabilistic vehicle traffic model in order to

Highly immersive virtual reality laparoscopy simulation: development and future aspects.

PubMed

Huber, Tobias; Wunderling, Tom; Paschold, Markus; Lang, Hauke; Kneist, Werner; Hansen, Christian

2018-02-01

Virtual reality (VR) applications with head-mounted displays (HMDs) have had an impact on information and multimedia technologies. The current work aimed to describe the process of developing a highly immersive VR simulation for laparoscopic surgery. We combined a VR laparoscopy simulator (LapSim) and a VR-HMD to create a user-friendly VR simulation scenario. Continuous clinical feedback was an essential aspect of the development process. We created an artificial VR (AVR) scenario by integrating the simulator video output with VR game components of figures and equipment in an operating room. We also created a highly immersive VR surrounding (IVR) by integrating the simulator video output with a [Formula: see text] video of a standard laparoscopy scenario in the department's operating room. Clinical feedback led to optimization of the visualization, synchronization, and resolution of the virtual operating rooms (in both the IVR and the AVR). Preliminary testing results revealed that individuals experienced a high degree of exhilaration and presence, with rare events of motion sickness. The technical performance showed no significant difference compared to that achieved with the standard LapSim. Our results provided a proof of concept for the technical feasibility of an custom highly immersive VR-HMD setup. Future technical research is needed to improve the visualization, immersion, and capability of interacting within the virtual scenario.

Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less computation power. The authors have used this approach for risk assessment towards identification of effectiveness-profitability of risk mitigation measures, using optimization model for resource allocation. Based on the error-computation trade-off, 62-earthquake scenarios are chosen to be used for this purpose.

An interactive ontology-driven information system for simulating background radiation and generating scenarios for testing special nuclear materials detection algorithms

DOE PAGES

Sorokine, Alexandre; Schlicher, Bob G.; Ward, Richard C.; ...

2015-05-22

This paper describes an original approach to generating scenarios for the purpose of testing the algorithms used to detect special nuclear materials (SNM) that incorporates the use of ontologies. Separating the signal of SNM from the background requires sophisticated algorithms. To assist in developing such algorithms, there is a need for scenarios that capture a very wide range of variables affecting the detection process, depending on the type of detector being used. To provide such a cpability, we developed an ontology-driven information system (ODIS) for generating scenarios that can be used in creating scenarios for testing of algorithms for SNMmore » detection. The ontology-driven scenario generator (ODSG) is an ODIS based on information supplied by subject matter experts and other documentation. The details of the creation of the ontology, the development of the ontology-driven information system, and the design of the web user interface (UI) are presented along with specific examples of scenarios generated using the ODSG. We demonstrate that the paradigm behind the ODSG is capable of addressing the problem of semantic complexity at both the user and developer levels. Compared to traditional approaches, an ODIS provides benefits such as faithful representation of the users' domain conceptualization, simplified management of very large and semantically diverse datasets, and the ability to handle frequent changes to the application and the UI. Furthermore, the approach makes possible the generation of a much larger number of specific scenarios based on limited user-supplied information« less

A methodology for modeling barrier island storm-impact scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mickey, Rangley C.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

2017-02-16

A methodology for developing a representative set of storm scenarios based on historical wave buoy and tide gauge data for a region at the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total water level was calculated for a 10-year period and analyzed against existing topographic data to identify when storm-induced wave action would affect island morphology. These events were categorized on the basis of the threshold of total water level and duration to create a set of storm scenarios that were simulated, using a high-fidelity, process-based, morphologic evolution model, on an idealized digital elevation model of the Chandeleur Islands. The simulated morphological changes resulting from these scenarios provide a range of impacts that can help coastal managers determine resiliency of proposed or existing coastal structures and identify vulnerable areas within those structures.

Adaptive Memory: Evaluating Alternative Forms of Fitness-Relevant Processing in the Survival Processing Paradigm

PubMed Central

Sandry, Joshua; Trafimow, David; Marks, Michael J.; Rice, Stephen

2013-01-01

Memory may have evolved to preserve information processed in terms of its fitness-relevance. Based on the assumption that the human mind comprises different fitness-relevant adaptive mechanisms contributing to survival and reproductive success, we compared alternative fitness-relevant processing scenarios with survival processing. Participants rated words for relevancy to fitness-relevant and control conditions followed by a delay and surprise recall test (Experiment 1a). Participants recalled more words processed for their relevance to a survival situation. We replicated these findings in an online study (Experiment 2) and a study using revised fitness-relevant scenarios (Experiment 3). Across all experiments, we did not find a mnemonic benefit for alternative fitness-relevant processing scenarios, questioning assumptions associated with an evolutionary account of remembering. Based on these results, fitness-relevance seems to be too wide-ranging of a construct to account for the memory findings associated with survival processing. We propose that memory may be hierarchically sensitive to fitness-relevant processing instructions. We encourage future researchers to investigate the underlying mechanisms responsible for survival processing effects and work toward developing a taxonomy of adaptive memory. PMID:23585858

Developing authentic clinical simulations for effective listening and communication in pediatric rehabilitation service delivery.

PubMed

King, Gillian; Shepherd, Tracy A; Servais, Michelle; Willoughby, Colleen; Bolack, Linda; Strachan, Deborah; Moodie, Sheila; Baldwin, Patricia; Knickle, Kerry; Parker, Kathryn; Savage, Diane; McNaughton, Nancy

2016-10-01

To describe the creation and validation of six simulations concerned with effective listening and interpersonal communication in pediatric rehabilitation. The simulations involved clinicians from various disciplines, were based on clinical scenarios related to client issues, and reflected core aspects of listening/communication. Each simulation had a key learning objective, thus focusing clinicians on specific listening skills. The article outlines the process used to turn written scenarios into digital video simulations, including steps taken to establish content validity and authenticity, and to establish a series of videos based on the complexity of their learning objectives, given contextual factors and associated macrocognitive processes that influence the ability to listen. A complexity rating scale was developed and used to establish a gradient of easy/simple, intermediate, and hard/complex simulations. The development process exemplifies an evidence-based, integrated knowledge translation approach to the teaching and learning of listening and communication skills.

Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Robert J.

1992-01-01

Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

Sustainability Assessment of Future Scenarios: Methodology and Application to Mountain Areas of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheate, William R.; Partidário, Maria Rosário Do; Byron, Helen; Bina, Olivia; Dagg, Suzan

2008-02-01

BioScene (scenarios for reconciling biodiversity conservation with declining agriculture use in mountain areas in Europe) was a three-year project (2002 2005) funded by the European Union’s Fifth Framework Programme, and aimed to investigate the implications of agricultural restructuring and decline for biodiversity conservation in the mountain areas of Europe. The research took a case study approach to the analysis of the biodiversity processes and outcomes of different scenarios of agri-environmental change in six countries (France, Greece, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) covering the major biogeographical regions of Europe. The project was coordinated by Imperial College London, and each study area had a multidisciplinary team including ecologists and social and economic experts, which sought a comprehensive understanding of the drivers for change and their implications for sustainability. A key component was the sustainability assessment (SA) of the alternative scenarios. This article discusses the development and application of the SA methodology developed for BioScene. While the methodology was objectives-led, it was also strongly grounded in baseline ecological and socio-economic data. This article also describes the engagement of stakeholder panels in each study area and the use of causal chain analysis for understanding the likely implications for land use and biodiversity of strategic drivers of change under alternative scenarios for agriculture and rural policy and for biodiversity management. Finally, this article draws conclusions for the application of SA more widely, its use with scenarios, and the benefits of stakeholder engagement in the SA process.

Urbanization and watershed sustainability: Collaborative simulation modeling of future development states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randhir, Timothy O.; Raposa, Sarah

2014-11-01

Urbanization has a significant impact on water resources and requires a watershed-based approach to evaluate impacts of land use and urban development on watershed processes. This study uses a simulation with urban policy scenarios to model and strategize transferable recommendations for municipalities and cities to guide urban decisions using watershed ecohydrologic principles. The watershed simulation model is used to evaluation intensive (policy in existing built regions) and extensive (policy outside existing build regions) urban development scenarios with and without implementation of Best Management practices (BMPs). Water quantity and quality changes are simulated to assess effectiveness of five urban development scenarios. It is observed that optimal combination of intensive and extensive strategies can be used to sustain urban ecosystems. BMPs are found critical to reduce storm water and water quality impacts on urban development. Conservation zoning and incentives for voluntary adoption of BMPs can be used in sustaining urbanizing watersheds.

Review of unsaturated-zone transport and attenuation of volatile organic compound (VOC) plumes leached from shallow source zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivett, Michael O.; Wealthall, Gary P.; Dearden, Rachel A.; McAlary, Todd A.

2011-04-01

Reliable prediction of the unsaturated zone transport and attenuation of dissolved-phase VOC (volatile organic compound) plumes leached from shallow source zones is a complex, multi-process, environmental problem. It is an important problem as sources, which include solid-waste landfills, aqueous-phase liquid discharge lagoons and NAPL releases partially penetrating the unsaturated zone, may persist for decades. Natural attenuation processes operating in the unsaturated zone that, uniquely for VOCs includes volatilisation, may, however, serve to protect underlying groundwater and potentially reduce the need for expensive remedial actions. Review of the literature indicates that only a few studies have focused upon the overall leached VOC source and plume scenario as a whole. These are mostly modelling studies that often involve high strength, non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) sources for which density-induced and diffusive vapour transport is significant. Occasional dissolved-phase aromatic hydrocarbon controlled infiltration field studies also exist. Despite this lack of focus on the overall problem, a wide range of process-based unsaturated zone — VOC research has been conducted that may be collated to build good conceptual model understanding of the scenario, particularly for the much studied aromatic hydrocarbons and chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons (CAHs). In general, the former group is likely to be attenuated in the unsaturated zone due to their ready aerobic biodegradation, albeit with rate variability across the literature, whereas the fate of the latter is far less likely to be dominated by a single mechanism and dependent upon the relative importance of the various attenuation processes within individual site — VOC scenarios. Analytical and numerical modelling tools permit effective process representation of the whole scenario, albeit with potential for inclusion of additional processes — e.g., multi-mechanistic sorption phase partitioning, and provide good opportunity for further sensitivity analysis and development to practitioner use. There remains a significant need to obtain intermediate laboratory-scale and particularly field-scale (actual site and controlled release) datasets that address the scenario as a whole and permit validation of the available models. Integrated assessment of the range of simultaneous processes that combine to influence leached plume generation, transport and attenuation in the unsaturated zone is required. Component process research needs are required across the problem scenario and include: the simultaneous volatilisation and dissolution of source zones; development of appropriate field-scale dispersion estimates for the unsaturated zone; assessment of transient VOC exchanges between aqueous, vapour and sorbed phases and their influence upon plume attenuation; development of improved field methods to recognise and quantify biodegradation of CAHs; establishment of the influence of co-contaminants; and, finally, translation of research findings into more robust practitioner practice.

Open Scenario Study, Phase II Report: Assessment and Development of Approaches for Satisfying Unclassified Scenario Needs

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

interface, another providing the application logic (a program used to manipulate the data), and a server running Microsoft SQL Server or Oracle RDBMS... Oracle ) • Mysql (Open Source) • Other What application server software will be needed? • Application Server • CGI PHP/Perl (Open Source...are used throughout DoD and serve a variety of functions. While DoD has a codified and institutionalized process for the development of a common set

Applications of advanced transport aircraft in developing countries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gobetz, F. W.; Assarabowski, R. J.; Leshane, A. A.

1978-01-01

Four representative market scenarios were studied to evaluate the relative performance of air-and surface-based transportation systems in meeting the needs of two developing contries, Brazil and Indonesia, which were selected for detailed case studies. The market scenarios were: remote mining, low-density transport, tropical forestry, and large cargo aircraft serving processing centers in resource-rich, remote areas. The long-term potential of various aircraft types, together with fleet requirements and necessary technology advances, is determined for each application.

Integrated Modeling and Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.; Brewington, L.

2014-12-01

For the last century, the island of Maui, Hawaii, has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for adequate future freshwater resources requires flexible and adaptive policies that emphasize partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. In 2012 the Hawai'i state legislature passed the Climate Change Adaptation Priority Guidelines (Act 286) law requiring county and state policy makers to include island-wide climate change scenarios in their planning processes. This research details the ongoing work by researchers in the NOAA funded Pacific RISA to support the development of Hawaii's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. This integrated project combines several models with participatory future scenario planning. The dynamically downscaled triply nested Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) was modified from the WRF community model and calibrated to simulate the many microclimates on the Hawaiian archipelago. For the island of Maui, the HRCM was validated using 20 years of hindcast data, and daily projections were created at a 1 km scale to capture the steep topography and diverse rainfall regimes. Downscaled climate data are input into a USGS hydrological model to quantify groundwater recharge. This model was previously used for groundwater management, and is being expanded utilizing future climate projections, current land use maps and future scenario maps informed by stakeholder input. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of over 50 decision-makers in government, conservation, and agriculture to 1) determine the type of information they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of scenarios that represent alternative climate/management futures. This is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives at multiple scales. The resulting climate, land use, and groundwater recharge maps give stakeholders a common set of future scenarios that they understand through the participatory scenario process, and identify the vulnerabilities, trade-offs, and adaptive priorities for different groundwater management and land uses in an uncertain future.

Development of a safety decision-making scenario to measure worker safety in agriculture.

PubMed

Mosher, G A; Keren, N; Freeman, S A; Hurburgh, C R

2014-04-01

Human factors play an important role in the management of occupational safety, especially in high-hazard workplaces such as commercial grain-handling facilities. Employee decision-making patterns represent an essential component of the safety system within a work environment. This research describes the process used to create a safety decision-making scenario to measure the process that grain-handling employees used to make choices in a safety-related work task. A sample of 160 employees completed safety decision-making simulations based on a hypothetical but realistic scenario in a grain-handling environment. Their choices and the information they used to make their choices were recorded. Although the employees emphasized safety information in their decision-making process, not all of their choices were safe choices. Factors influencing their choices are discussed, and implications for industry, management, and workers are shared.

Teaching the Methodology of Science: The Utilization of Microbial Model Systems for Biometric Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adamo, Joseph A.

Students set in their ways are usually reluctant, as a general rule, to deal with open-ended investigative scenarios. In order to acquaint the student with the physical method and philosophical thought process of the discipline, the tone of the course must be set early on. The present study was conducted to develop scenarios and microbial model…

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Conclusions Our technical advance is the development and use of automated event-based knowledge elicitation to identify suboptimal OR management decisions that decrease the efficiency of use of OR time. The adapted scenarios can be used in future decision-making. PMID:21214905

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

2011-01-07

No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the development and use of automated event-based knowledge elicitation to identify suboptimal OR management decisions that decrease the efficiency of use of OR time. The adapted scenarios can be used in future decision-making.

Time Processing Impairments in Preschoolers at Risk of Developing Difficulties in Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tobia, Valentina; Rinaldi, Luca; Marzocchi, Gian Marco

2018-01-01

The occurrence of time processing problems in individuals with Development Dyscalculia (DD) has favored the view of a general magnitude system devoted to both numerical and temporal information. Yet, this scenario has been partially challenged by studies indicating that time difficulties can be attributed to poor calculation or counting skills,…

Distributed Group Design Process: Lessons Learned.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eseryel, Deniz; Ganesan, Radha

A typical Web-based training development team consists of a project manager, an instructional designer, a subject-matter expert, a graphic artist, and a Web programmer. The typical scenario involves team members working together in the same setting during the entire design and development process. What happens when the team is distributed, that is…

Proposed Requirements-driven User-scenario Development Protocol for the Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wee, B.; Car, N.; Percivall, G.; Allen, D.; Fitch, P. G.; Baumann, P.; Waldmann, H. C.

2014-12-01

The Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement (CRA) is designed to foster a global community to collaborate on e-infrastructure challenges. One of the deliverables is an implementation plan to address global data infrastructure interoperability challenges and align existing domestic and international capabilities. Work package three (WP3) of the CRA focuses on the harmonization of global data infrastructure for sharing environmental data. One of the subtasks under WP3 is the development of user scenarios that guide the development of applicable deliverables. This paper describes the proposed protocol for user scenario development. It enables the solicitation of user scenarios from a broad constituency, and exposes the mechanisms by which those solicitations are evaluated against requirements that map to the Belmont Challenge. The underlying principle of traceability forms the basis for a structured, requirements-driven approach resulting in work products amenable to trade-off analyses and objective prioritization. The protocol adopts the ISO Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP) as a top level framework. User scenarios are developed within RM-ODP's "Enterprise Viewpoint". To harmonize with existing frameworks, the protocol utilizes the conceptual constructs of "scenarios", "use cases", "use case categories", and use case templates as adopted by recent GEOSS Architecture Implementation Project (AIP) deliverables and CSIRO's eReefs project. These constructs are encapsulated under the larger construct of "user scenarios". Once user scenarios are ranked by goodness-of-fit to the Belmont Challenge, secondary scoring metrics may be generated, like goodness-of-fit to FutureEarth science themes. The protocol also facilitates an assessment of the ease of implementing given user scenario using existing GEOSS AIP deliverables. In summary, the protocol results in a traceability graph that can be extended to coordinate across research programmes. If implemented using appropriate technologies and harmonized with existing ontologies, this approach enables queries, sensitivity analyses, and visualization of complex relationships.

Limitations and information needs for engineered nanomaterial-specific exposure estimation and scenarios: recommendations for improved reporting practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Katherine; van Tongeren, Martie; Christensen, Frans M.; Brouwer, Derk; Nowack, Bernd; Gottschalk, Fadri; Micheletti, Christian; Schmid, Kaspar; Gerritsen, Rianda; Aitken, Rob; Vaquero, Celina; Gkanis, Vasileios; Housiadas, Christos; de Ipiña, Jesús María López; Riediker, Michael

2012-09-01

The aim of this paper is to describe the process and challenges in building exposure scenarios for engineered nanomaterials (ENM), using an exposure scenario format similar to that used for the European Chemicals regulation (REACH). Over 60 exposure scenarios were developed based on information from publicly available sources (literature, books, and reports), publicly available exposure estimation models, occupational sampling campaign data from partnering institutions, and industrial partners regarding their own facilities. The primary focus was on carbon-based nanomaterials, nano-silver (nano-Ag) and nano-titanium dioxide (nano-TiO2), and included occupational and consumer uses of these materials with consideration of the associated environmental release. The process of building exposure scenarios illustrated the availability and limitations of existing information and exposure assessment tools for characterizing exposure to ENM, particularly as it relates to risk assessment. This article describes the gaps in the information reviewed, recommends future areas of ENM exposure research, and proposes types of information that should, at a minimum, be included when reporting the results of such research, so that the information is useful in a wider context.

Operational Tsunami Modelling with TsunAWI for the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System: Recent Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakowsky, N.; Harig, S.; Androsov, A.; Fuchs, A.; Immerz, A.; Schröter, J.; Hiller, W.

2012-04-01

Starting in 2005, the GITEWS project (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) established from scratch a fully operational tsunami warning system at BMKG in Jakarta. Numerical simulations of prototypic tsunami scenarios play a decisive role in a priori risk assessment for coastal regions and in the early warning process itself. Repositories with currently 3470 regional tsunami scenarios for GITEWS and 1780 Indian Ocean wide scenarios in support of Indonesia as a Regional Tsunami Service Provider (RTSP) were computed with the non-linear shallow water modell TsunAWI. It is based on a finite element discretisation, employs unstructured grids with high resolution along the coast and includes inundation. This contribution gives an overview on the model itself, the enhancement of the model physics, and the experiences gained during the process of establishing an operational code suited for thousands of model runs. Technical aspects like computation time, disk space needed for each scenario in the repository, or post processing techniques have a much larger impact than they had in the beginning when TsunAWI started as a research code. Of course, careful testing on artificial benchmarks and real events remains essential, but furthermore, quality control for the large number of scenarios becomes an important issue.

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

PubMed

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

CALIBRATION OF SUBSURFACE BATCH AND REACTIVE-TRANSPORT MODELS INVOLVING COMPLEX BIOGEOCHEMICAL PROCESSES

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, the calibration of subsurface batch and reactive-transport models involving complex biogeochemical processes was systematically evaluated. Two hypothetical nitrate biodegradation scenarios were developed and simulated in numerical experiments to evaluate the perfor...

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

PubMed

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Career Cartography: From Stories to Science and Scholarship.

PubMed

Wilson, Deleise S; Rosemberg, Marie-Anne S; Visovatti, Moira; Munro-Kramer, Michelle L; Feetham, Suzanne

2017-05-01

To present four case scenarios reflecting the process of research career development using career cartography. Career cartography is a novel approach that enables nurses, from all clinical and academic settings, to actively engage in a process that maximizes their clinical, teaching, research, and policy contributions that can improve patient outcomes and the health of the public. Four early-career nurse researchers applied the career cartography framework to describe their iterative process of research career development. They report the development process of each of the components of career cartography, including destination statement, career map, and policy statement. Despite diverse research interests and career mapping approaches, common experiences emerged from the four nurse researchers. Common lessons learned throughout the career cartography process include: (a) have a supportive mentorship team, (b) start early and reflect regularly, (c) be brief and to the point, (d) keep it simple and avoid jargon, (e) be open to change, (f) make time, and (g) focus on the overall career destination. These four case scenarios support the need for nurse researchers to develop their individual career cartography. Regardless of their background, career cartography can help nurse researchers articulate their meaningful contributions to science, policy, and health of the public. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

2014-11-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

PubMed

Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

2014-11-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

Automated Work Package: Conceptual Design and Data Architecture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Al Rashdan, Ahmad; Oxstrand, Johanna; Agarwal, Vivek

The automated work package (AWP) is one of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program efforts to enhance the safety and economics of the nuclear power industry. An AWP is an adaptive and interactive work package that intelligently drives the work process according to the plant condition, resources status, and users progress. The AWP aims to automate several manual tasks of the work process to enhance human performance and reduce human errors. Electronic work packages (eWPs), studied by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), are work packages that rely to various extent on electronic data processingmore » and presentation. AWPs are the future of eWPs. They are envisioned to incorporate the advanced technologies of the future, and thus address the unresolved deficiencies associated with the eWPs in a nuclear power plant. In order to define the AWP, it is necessary to develop an ideal envisioned scenario of the future work process without any current technology restriction. The approach followed to develop this scenario is specific to every stage of the work process execution. The scenario development resulted in fifty advanced functionalities that can be part of the AWP. To rank the importance of these functionalities, a survey was conducted involving several U.S. nuclear utilities. The survey aimed at determining the current need of the nuclear industry with respect to the current work process, i.e. what the industry is satisfied with, and where the industry envisions potential for improvement. The survey evaluated the most promising functionalities resulting from the scenario development. The results demonstrated a significant desire to adopt the majority of these functionalities. The results of the survey are expected to drive the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) AWP research and development (R&D). In order to facilitate this mission, a prototype AWP is needed. Since the vast majority of earlier efforts focused on the frontend aspects of the AWP, the backend data architecture was researched and developed in this effort. The backend design involved data architecture aspects. It was realized through this effort that the key aspects of this design are hierarchy, data configuration and live information, data templates and instances, the flow of work package execution, the introduction of properties, and the means to interface the backend to the frontend. After the backend design was developed, a data structure was built to reflect the developed data architecture. The data structure was developed to accommodate the fifty functionalities identified by the envisioned scenario development. The data structure was evaluated by incorporating an example work order from the nuclear power industry. The implementation resulted in several optimization iterations of the data structure. In addition, the rearrangement of the work order information to fit the data structure highlighted several possibilities for improvement in the current work order design, and significantly reduced the size of the work order.« less

Systematically Extracting Metal- and Solvent-Related Occupational Information from Free-Text Responses to Lifetime Occupational History Questionnaires

PubMed Central

Friesen, Melissa C.; Locke, Sarah J.; Tornow, Carina; Chen, Yu-Cheng; Koh, Dong-Hee; Stewart, Patricia A.; Purdue, Mark; Colt, Joanne S.

2014-01-01

Objectives: Lifetime occupational history (OH) questionnaires often use open-ended questions to capture detailed information about study participants’ jobs. Exposure assessors use this information, along with responses to job- and industry-specific questionnaires, to assign exposure estimates on a job-by-job basis. An alternative approach is to use information from the OH responses and the job- and industry-specific questionnaires to develop programmable decision rules for assigning exposures. As a first step in this process, we developed a systematic approach to extract the free-text OH responses and convert them into standardized variables that represented exposure scenarios. Methods: Our study population comprised 2408 subjects, reporting 11991 jobs, from a case–control study of renal cell carcinoma. Each subject completed a lifetime OH questionnaire that included verbatim responses, for each job, to open-ended questions including job title, main tasks and activities (task), tools and equipment used (tools), and chemicals and materials handled (chemicals). Based on a review of the literature, we identified exposure scenarios (occupations, industries, tasks/tools/chemicals) expected to involve possible exposure to chlorinated solvents, trichloroethylene (TCE) in particular, lead, and cadmium. We then used a SAS macro to review the information reported by study participants to identify jobs associated with each exposure scenario; this was done using previously coded standardized occupation and industry classification codes, and a priori lists of associated key words and phrases related to possibly exposed tasks, tools, and chemicals. Exposure variables representing the occupation, industry, and task/tool/chemicals exposure scenarios were added to the work history records of the study respondents. Our identification of possibly TCE-exposed scenarios in the OH responses was compared to an expert’s independently assigned probability ratings to evaluate whether we missed identifying possibly exposed jobs. Results: Our process added exposure variables for 52 occupation groups, 43 industry groups, and 46 task/tool/chemical scenarios to the data set of OH responses. Across all four agents, we identified possibly exposed task/tool/chemical exposure scenarios in 44–51% of the jobs in possibly exposed occupations. Possibly exposed task/tool/chemical exposure scenarios were found in a nontrivial 9–14% of the jobs not in possibly exposed occupations, suggesting that our process identified important information that would not be captured using occupation alone. Our extraction process was sensitive: for jobs where our extraction of OH responses identified no exposure scenarios and for which the sole source of information was the OH responses, only 0.1% were assessed as possibly exposed to TCE by the expert. Conclusions: Our systematic extraction of OH information found useful information in the task/chemicals/tools responses that was relatively easy to extract and that was not available from the occupational or industry information. The extracted variables can be used as inputs in the development of decision rules, especially for jobs where no additional information, such as job- and industry-specific questionnaires, is available. PMID:24590110

A landscape ecology approach to assessing development impacts in the tropics: A geothermal energy example in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffith, J.A.; Trettin, C.C.; O'Neill, R. V.

2002-01-01

Geographic information systems (GIS) are increasingly being used in environmental impact assessments (EIA) because GIS is useful for analysing spatial impacts of various development scenarios. Spatially representing these impacts provides another tool for landscape ecology in environmental and geographical investigations by facilitating analysis of the effects of landscape patterns on ecological processes and examining change over time. Landscape ecological principles are applied in this study to a hypothetical geothermal development project on the Island of Hawaii. Some common landscape pattern metrics were used to analyse dispersed versus condensed development scenarios and their effect on landscape pattern. Indices of fragmentation and patch shape did not appreciably change with additional development. The amount of forest to open edge, however, greatly increased with the dispersed development scenario. In addition, landscape metrics showed that a human disturbance had a greater simplifying effect on patch shape and also increased fragmentation than a natural disturbance. The use of these landscape pattern metrics can advance the methodology of applying GIS to EIA.

Ethicted (evaluation process model to improve personalised ICT services for independent living and active ageing)--future scenario.

PubMed

Kärki, Anne; Sävel, Jaana; Sallinen, Merja; Kuusinen, Jere

2013-01-01

ICT innovations are constantly developed, and there is no lack of elderly customers, as the number of the elderly is dramatically increasing. Elderly are willing to use ICT to increase their own safety and social activity, but they need trust on the reliability, accessibility and other ethical aspects of ICT including the maintenance of privacy and self-determination. Ethical standards for ICT are usually not considered. "Ethicted" characterizes an ICT service or product as ethically evaluated. As a standardized procedure, it will not only increase the acceptability of ICT, but also provide services for ICT developers. In the future scenario, ICT under development should be evaluated by using a process model that is specifically built to find the lacks in ethical aspects. The model would then be tested by end-users, the formal and informal care givers, to receive direct feedback for redeveloping solutions. As final outcomes, there should be standards for ICT in elderly care and a service for ICT developers to utilize the evaluation model. This future scenario work included partners from 6 EU member countries. The combination of academic research and industrial/commercial interest of ICT developers should and can bring new value to assistive ICT for elderly care.

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

PubMed

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management options across wide-ranging conditions.

A Statistical Bias Correction Tool for Generating Climate Change Scenarios in Indonesia based on CMIP5 Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faqih, A.

2017-03-01

Providing information regarding future climate scenarios is very important in climate change study. The climate scenario can be used as basic information to support adaptation and mitigation studies. In order to deliver future climate scenarios over specific region, baseline and projection data from the outputs of global climate models (GCM) is needed. However, due to its coarse resolution, the data have to be downscaled and bias corrected in order to get scenario data with better spatial resolution that match the characteristics of the observed data. Generating this downscaled data is mostly difficult for scientist who do not have specific background, experience and skill in dealing with the complex data from the GCM outputs. In this regards, it is necessary to develop a tool that can be used to simplify the downscaling processes in order to help scientist, especially in Indonesia, for generating future climate scenario data that can be used for their climate change-related studies. In this paper, we introduce a tool called as “Statistical Bias Correction for Climate Scenarios (SiBiaS)”. The tool is specially designed to facilitate the use of CMIP5 GCM data outputs and process their statistical bias corrections relative to the reference data from observations. It is prepared for supporting capacity building in climate modeling in Indonesia as part of the Indonesia 3rd National Communication (TNC) project activities.

Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

2016-08-01

The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand management scenario. Finally, it will be shown that applying the Meta scenario will improve the water resources from sustainably.

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics

PubMed Central

Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel’s Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species’ available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to ‘errors’ (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario. PMID:29621330

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Troupin, David; Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

WE-G-BRA-07: Analyzing the Safety Implications of a Brachytherapy Process Improvement Project Utilizing a Novel System-Theory-Based Hazard-Analysis Technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, A; Samost, A; Viswanathan, A

Purpose: To investigate the hazards in cervical-cancer HDR brachytherapy using a novel hazard-analysis technique, System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA). The applicability and benefit of STPA to the field of radiation oncology is demonstrated. Methods: We analyzed the tandem and ring HDR procedure through observations, discussions with physicists and physicians, and the use of a previously developed process map. Controllers and their respective control actions were identified and arranged into a hierarchical control model of the system, modeling the workflow from applicator insertion through initiating treatment delivery. We then used the STPA process to identify potentially unsafe control actions. Scenarios weremore » then generated from the identified unsafe control actions and used to develop recommendations for system safety constraints. Results: 10 controllers were identified and included in the final model. From these controllers 32 potentially unsafe control actions were identified, leading to more than 120 potential accident scenarios, including both clinical errors (e.g., using outdated imaging studies for planning), and managerial-based incidents (e.g., unsafe equipment, budget, or staffing decisions). Constraints identified from those scenarios include common themes, such as the need for appropriate feedback to give the controllers an adequate mental model to maintain safe boundaries of operations. As an example, one finding was that the likelihood of the potential accident scenario of the applicator breaking during insertion might be reduced by establishing a feedback loop of equipment-usage metrics and equipment-failure reports to the management controller. Conclusion: The utility of STPA in analyzing system hazards in a clinical brachytherapy system was demonstrated. This technique, rooted in system theory, identified scenarios both technical/clinical and managerial in nature. These results suggest that STPA can be successfully used to analyze safety in brachytherapy and may prove to be an alternative to other hazard analysis techniques.« less

Eliciting design patterns for e-learning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retalis, Symeon; Georgiakakis, Petros; Dimitriadis, Yannis

2006-06-01

Design pattern creation, especially in the e-learning domain, is a highly complex process that has not been sufficiently studied and formalized. In this paper, we propose a systematic pattern development cycle, whose most important aspects focus on reverse engineering of existing systems in order to elicit features that are cross-validated through the use of appropriate, authentic scenarios. However, an iterative pattern process is proposed that takes advantage of multiple data sources, thus emphasizing a holistic view of the teaching learning processes. The proposed schema of pattern mining has been extensively validated for Asynchronous Network Supported Collaborative Learning (ANSCL) systems, as well as for other types of tools in a variety of scenarios, with promising results.

Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

1995-01-01

We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

A design space exploration for control of Critical Quality Attributes of mAb.

PubMed

Bhatia, Hemlata; Read, Erik; Agarabi, Cyrus; Brorson, Kurt; Lute, Scott; Yoon, Seongkyu

2016-10-15

A unique "design space (DSp) exploration strategy," defined as a function of four key scenarios, was successfully integrated and validated to enhance the DSp building exercise, by increasing the accuracy of analyses and interpretation of processed data. The four key scenarios, defining the strategy, were based on cumulative analyses of individual models developed for the Critical Quality Attributes (23 Glycan Profiles) considered for the study. The analyses of the CQA estimates and model performances were interpreted as (1) Inside Specification/Significant Model (2) Inside Specification/Non-significant Model (3) Outside Specification/Significant Model (4) Outside Specification/Non-significant Model. Each scenario was defined and illustrated through individual models of CQA aligning the description. The R(2), Q(2), Model Validity and Model Reproducibility estimates of G2, G2FaGbGN, G0 and G2FaG2, respectively, signified the four scenarios stated above. Through further optimizations, including the estimation of Edge of Failure and Set Point Analysis, wider and accurate DSps were created for each scenario, establishing critical functional relationship between Critical Process Parameters (CPPs) and Critical Quality Attributes (CQAs). A DSp provides the optimal region for systematic evaluation, mechanistic understanding and refining of a QbD approach. DSp exploration strategy will aid the critical process of consistently and reproducibly achieving predefined quality of a product throughout its lifecycle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Part Played by Popular Education in Local Development Processes in Suburban and Rural Areas of Sweden

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eriksson, Lisbeth; Forsberg, Anette

2010-01-01

On the basis of a three-year study of the role of popular education in local development processes in Sweden (2006-2008), this paper sets out to outline the role of popular education as a development actor in rural and urban contexts. Two different scenarios and approaches are discussed. One is the role of popular education in rural areas, which…

Validation of the SEPHIS Program for the Modeling of the HM Process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kyser, E.A.

The SEPHIS computer program is currently being used to evaluate the effect of all process variables on the criticality safety of the HM 1st Uranium Cycle process in H Canyon. The objective of its use has three main purposes. (1) To provide a better technical basis for those process variables that do not have any realistic effect on the criticality safety of the process. (2) To qualitatively study those conditions that have been previously recognized to affect the nuclear safety of the process or additional conditions that modeling has indicated may pose a criticality safety issue. (3) To judge themore » adequacy of existing or future neutron monitors locations in the detection of the initial stages of reflux for specific scenarios.Although SEPHIS generally over-predicts the distribution of uranium to the organic phase, it is a capable simulation tool as long as the user recognizes its biases and takes special care when using the program for scenarios where the prediction bias is non-conservative. The temperature coefficient used by SEPHIS is poor at predicting effect of temperature on uranium extraction for the 7.5 percent TBP used in the HM process. Therefore, SEPHIS should not be used to study temperature related scenarios. However, within normal operating temperatures when other process variables are being studied, it may be used. Care must be is given to understanding the prediction bias and its effect on any conclusion for the particular scenario that is under consideration. Uranium extraction with aluminum nitrate is over-predicted worse than for nitric acid systems. However, the extraction section of the 1A bank has sufficient excess capability that these errors, while relatively large, still allow SEPHIS to be used to develop reasonable qualitative assessments for reflux scenarios. However, high losses to the 1AW stream cannot be modeled by SEPHIS.« less

Toward a Framework for Benefit-Risk Assessment in Diagnostic Imaging: Identifying Scenario-specific Criteria.

PubMed

Agapova, Maria; Bresnahan, Brian W; Linnau, Ken F; Garrison, Louis P; Higashi, Mitchell; Kessler, Larry; Devine, Beth

2017-05-01

Diagnostic imaging has many effects and there is no common definition of value in diagnostic radiology. As benefit-risk trade-offs are rarely made explicit, it is not clear which framework is used in clinical guideline development. We describe initial steps toward the creation of a benefit-risk framework for diagnostic radiology. We performed a literature search and an online survey of physicians to identify and collect benefit-risk criteria (BRC) relevant to diagnostic imaging tests. We operationalized a process for selection of BRC with the use of four clinical use case scenarios that vary by diagnostic alternatives and clinical indication. Respondent BRC selections were compared across clinical scenarios and between radiologists and nonradiologists. Thirty-six BRC were identified and organized into three domains: (1) those that account for differences attributable only to the test or device (n = 17); (2) those that account for clinical management and provider experiences (n = 12); and (3) those that capture patient experience (n = 7). Forty-eight survey participants selected 22 criteria from the initial list in the survey (9-11 per case). Engaging ordering physicians increased the number of criteria selected in each of the four clinical scenarios presented. We developed a process for standardizing selection of BRC in guideline development. These results suggest that a process relying on elements of comparative effectiveness and the use of standardized BRC may ensure consistent examination of differences among alternatives by way of making explicit implicit trade-offs that otherwise enter the decision-making space and detract from consistency and transparency. These findings also highlight the need for multidisciplinary teams that include input from ordering physicians. Copyright © 2017 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating manufacturing softwares for intelligent planning execution: a CIIMPLEX perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Bei Tseng B.; Tolone, William J.; Wilhelm, Robert G.; Hegedus, M.; Fesko, J.; Finin, T.; Peng, Yun; Jones, Chris H.; Long, Junshen; Matthews, Mike; Mayfield, J.; Shimp, J.; Su, S.

1997-01-01

Recent developments have made it possible to interoperate complex business applications at much lower costs. Application interoperation, along with business process re- engineering can result in significant savings by eliminating work created by disconnected business processes due to isolated business applications. However, we believe much greater productivity benefits can be achieved by facilitating timely decision-making, utilizing information from multiple enterprise perspectives. The CIIMPLEX enterprise integration architecture is designed to enable such productivity gains by helping people to carry out integrated enterprise scenarios. An enterprise scenario is triggered typically by some external event. The goal of an enterprise scenario is to make the right decisions considering the full context of the problem. Enterprise scenarios are difficult for people to carry out because of the interdependencies among various actions. One can easily be overwhelmed by the large amount of information. We propose the use of software agents to help gathering relevant information and present them in the appropriate context of an enterprise scenario. The CIIMPLEX enterprise integration architecture is based on the FAIME methodology for application interoperation and plug-and-play. It also explores the use of software agents in application plug-and- play.

Techno-economic analysis of ethanol production from sugarcane bagasse using a Liquefaction plus Simultaneous Saccharification and co-Fermentation process.

PubMed

Gubicza, Krisztina; Nieves, Ismael U; Sagues, William J; Barta, Zsolt; Shanmugam, K T; Ingram, Lonnie O

2016-05-01

A techno-economic analysis was conducted for a simplified lignocellulosic ethanol production process developed and proven by the University of Florida at laboratory, pilot, and demonstration scales. Data obtained from all three scales of development were used with Aspen Plus to create models for an experimentally-proven base-case and 5 hypothetical scenarios. The model input parameters that differed among the hypothetical scenarios were fermentation time, enzyme loading, enzymatic conversion, solids loading, and overall process yield. The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) varied between 50.38 and 62.72 US cents/L. The feedstock and the capital cost were the main contributors to the production cost, comprising between 23-28% and 40-49% of the MESP, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that overall ethanol yield had the greatest effect on the MESP. These findings suggest that future efforts to increase the economic feasibility of a cellulosic ethanol process should focus on optimization for highest ethanol yield. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Southern Regional Center for Lightweight Innovative Design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Horstemeyer, Mark F.; Wang, Paul

The three major objectives of this Phase III project are: To develop experimentally validated cradle-to-grave modeling and simulation tools to optimize automotive and truck components for lightweighting materials (aluminum, steel, and Mg alloys and polymer-based composites) with consideration of uncertainty to decrease weight and cost, yet increase the performance and safety in impact scenarios; To develop multiscale computational models that quantify microstructure-property relations by evaluating various length scales, from the atomic through component levels, for each step of the manufacturing process for vehicles; and To develop an integrated K-12 educational program to educate students on lightweighting designs and impact scenarios.

Journal Article: Using Scientists and Real-World Scenarios in Professional Development for Middle School Science Teachers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrison, Judith A.; Estes, Jeffrey C.

Middle school science teachers were involved in a problem-solving experience presented and guided by research scientists. Data on the teachers’ perspectives about this professional development and any impact it may have had on their teaching practices were collected through interviews, surveys, and classroom observations. The findings show that the professional development experience was positive, although one concern expressed by teachers was their lack of understanding of the scientists’ vocabulary. Using scientists and real-world scenarios was shown to be an effective strategy for encouraging middle school teachers to teach science as a process and help them strengthen their science content understanding.

Immersive simulated reality scenarios for enhancing students' experience of people with learning disabilities across all fields of nurse education.

PubMed

Saunder, Lorna; Berridge, Emma-Jane

2015-11-01

Poor preparation of nurses, regarding learning disabilities can have devastating consequences. High-profile reports and the Nursing and Midwifery Council requirements led this University to introduce Shareville into the undergraduate and postgraduate nursing curriculum. Shareville is a virtual environment developed at Birmingham City University, in which student nurses learn from realistic, problem-based scenarios featuring people with learning disabilities. Following the implementation of the resource an evaluation of both staff and student experience was undertaken. Students reported that problem-based scenarios were sufficiently real and immersive. Scenarios presented previously unanticipated considerations, offering new insights, and giving students the opportunity to practise decision-making in challenging scenarios before encountering them in practice. The interface and the quality of the graphics were criticised, but, this did not interfere with learning. Nine lecturers were interviewed, they generally felt positively towards the resource and identified strengths in terms of blended learning and collaborative teaching. The evaluation contributes to understandings of learning via simulated reality, and identifies process issues that will inform the development of further resources and their roll-out locally, and may guide other education providers in developing and implementing resources of this nature. There was significant parity between lecturers' expectations of students' experience of Shareville. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a Search and Rescue Simulation to Study the Effects of Prolonged Isolation on Team Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entin, Elliot E.; Kerrigan, Caroline; Serfaty, Daniel; Young, Philip

1998-01-01

The goals of this project were to identify and investigate aspects of team and individual decision-making and risk-taking behaviors hypothesized to be most affected by prolonged isolation. A key premise driving our research approach is that effects of stressors that impact individual and team cognitive processes in an isolated, confined, and hazardous environment will be projected onto the performance of a simulation task. To elicit and investigate these team behaviors we developed a search and rescue task concept as a scenario domain that would be relevant for isolated crews. We modified the Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD) simulator, a platform that has been extensively used for empirical research in team processes and taskwork performance, to portray the features of a search and rescue scenario and present the task components incorporated into that scenario. The resulting software is called DD-Search and Rescue (Version 1.0). To support the use of the DDD-Search and Rescue simulator in isolated experiment settings, we wrote a player's manual for teaching team members to operate the simulator and play the scenario. We then developed a research design and experiment plan that would allow quantitative measures of individual and team decision making skills using the DDD-Search and Rescue simulator as the experiment platform. A description of these activities and the associated materials that were produced under this contract are contained in this report.

Far-field DOA estimation and source localization for different scenarios in a distributed sensor network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asgari, Shadnaz

Recent developments in the integrated circuits and wireless communications not only open up many possibilities but also introduce challenging issues for the collaborative processing of signals for source localization and beamforming in an energy-constrained distributed sensor network. In signal processing, various sensor array processing algorithms and concepts have been adopted, but must be further tailored to match the communication and computational constraints. Sometimes the constraints are such that none of the existing algorithms would be an efficient option for the defined problem and as the result; the necessity of developing a new algorithm becomes undeniable. In this dissertation, we present the theoretical and the practical issues of Direction-Of-Arrival (DOA) estimation and source localization using the Approximate-Maximum-Likelihood (AML) algorithm for different scenarios. We first investigate a robust algorithm design for coherent source DOA estimation in a limited reverberant environment. Then, we provide a least-square (LS) solution for source localization based on our newly proposed virtual array model. In another scenario, we consider the determination of the location of a disturbance source which emits both wideband acoustic and seismic signals. We devise an enhanced AML algorithm to process the data collected at the acoustic sensors. For processing the seismic signals, two distinct algorithms are investigated to determine the DOAs. Then, we consider a basic algorithm for fusion of the results yielded by the acoustic and seismic arrays. We also investigate the theoretical and practical issues of DOA estimation in a three-dimensional (3D) scenario. We show that the performance of the proposed 3D AML algorithm converges to the Cramer-Rao Bound. We use the concept of an isotropic array to reduce the complexity of the proposed algorithm by advocating a decoupled 3D version. We also explore a modified version of the decoupled 3D AML algorithm which can be used for DOA estimation with non-isotropic arrays. In this dissertation, for each scenario, efficient numerical implementations of the corresponding AML algorithm are derived and applied into a real-time sensor network testbed. Extensive simulations as well as experimental results are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

2008-01-01

In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

Orbital construction support equipment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

Approximately 200 separate construction steps were defined for the three solar power satellite (SPS) concepts. Detailed construction scenarios were developed which describe the specific tasks to be accomplished, and identify general equipment requirements. The scenarios were used to perform a functional analysis, which resulted in the definition of 100 distinct SPS elements. These elements are the components, parts, subsystems, or assemblies upon which construction activities take place. The major SPS elements for each configuration are shown. For those elements, 300 functional requirements were identified in seven generic processes. Cumulatively, these processes encompass all functions required during SPS construction/assembly. Individually each process is defined such that it includes a specific type of activity. Each SPS element may involve activities relating to any or all of the generic processes. The processes are listed, and examples of the requirements defined for a typical element are given.

Quantifying Hydro-biogeochemical Model Sensitivity in Assessment of Climate Change Effect on Hyporheic Zone Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, X.; Chen, X.; Dai, H.; Hammond, G. E.; Song, H. S.; Stegen, J.

2016-12-01

The hyporheic zone is an active region for biogeochemical processes such as carbon and nitrogen cycling, where the groundwater and surface water mix and interact with each other with distinct biogeochemical and thermal properties. The biogeochemical dynamics within the hyporheic zone are driven by both river water and groundwater hydraulic dynamics, which are directly affected by climate change scenarios. Besides that, the hydraulic and thermal properties of local sediments and microbial and chemical processes also play important roles in biogeochemical dynamics. Thus for a comprehensive understanding of the biogeochemical processes in the hyporheic zone, a coupled thermo-hydro-biogeochemical model is needed. As multiple uncertainty sources are involved in the integrated model, it is important to identify its key modules/parameters through sensitivity analysis. In this study, we develop a 2D cross-section model in the hyporheic zone at the DOE Hanford site adjacent to Columbia River and use this model to quantify module and parametric sensitivity on assessment of climate change. To achieve this purpose, We 1) develop a facies-based groundwater flow and heat transfer model that incorporates facies geometry and heterogeneity characterized from a field data set, 2) derive multiple reaction networks/pathways from batch experiments with in-situ samples and integrate temperate dependent reactive transport modules to the flow model, 3) assign multiple climate change scenarios to the coupled model by analyzing historical river stage data, 4) apply a variance-based global sensitivity analysis to quantify scenario/module/parameter uncertainty in hierarchy level. The objectives of the research include: 1) identifing the key control factors of the coupled thermo-hydro-biogeochemical model in the assessment of climate change, and 2) quantify the carbon consumption in different climate change scenarios in the hyporheic zone.

Thermoseeds for interstitial magnetic hyperthermia: from bioceramics to nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baeza, A.; Arcos, D.; Vallet-Regí, M.

2013-12-01

The development of magnetic materials for interstitial hyperthermia treatment of cancer is an ever evolving research field which provides new alternatives to antitumoral therapies. The development of biocompatible magnetic materials has resulted in new biomaterials with multifunctional properties, which are able to adapt to the complex scenario of tumoral processes. Once implanted or injected in the body, magnetic materials can behave as thermoseeds under the effect of AC magnetic fields. Magnetic bioceramics aimed to treat bone tumors and magnetic nanoparticles are among the most studied thermoseeds, and supply different solutions for the different scenarios in cancerous processes. This paper reviews some of the biomaterials used for bone cancer treatment and skeletal reinforcing, as well as the more complex topic of magnetic nanoparticles for intracellular targeting and hyperthermia.

Thermoseeds for interstitial magnetic hyperthermia: from bioceramics to nanoparticles.

PubMed

Baeza, A; Arcos, D; Vallet-Regí, M

2013-12-04

The development of magnetic materials for interstitial hyperthermia treatment of cancer is an ever evolving research field which provides new alternatives to antitumoral therapies. The development of biocompatible magnetic materials has resulted in new biomaterials with multifunctional properties, which are able to adapt to the complex scenario of tumoral processes. Once implanted or injected in the body, magnetic materials can behave as thermoseeds under the effect of AC magnetic fields. Magnetic bioceramics aimed to treat bone tumors and magnetic nanoparticles are among the most studied thermoseeds, and supply different solutions for the different scenarios in cancerous processes. This paper reviews some of the biomaterials used for bone cancer treatment and skeletal reinforcing, as well as the more complex topic of magnetic nanoparticles for intracellular targeting and hyperthermia.

Floating growth of large-scale freestanding TiO2 nanorod films at the gas-liquid interface for additive-free Li-ion battery applications.

PubMed

Xia, Hua-Rong; Li, Jia; Peng, Chen; Sun, Wen-Tao; Li, Long-Wei; Peng, Lian-Mao

2014-10-22

The floating growth process of large-scale freestanding TiO2 nanorod films at the gas-liquid interface was investigated. On the basis of the experiments, a self-templated growth scenario was developed to account for the self-assembly process. In the scenario, titanium complexes function not only as the Ti source for the growth of TiO2 but also as a soft template provider for the floating growth. According to the scenario, several new recipes of preparing freestanding TiO2 nanorod films at the gas-liquid interface were developed. The freestanding film was applied to a lithium ion battery as a binder-free and conducting agent-free anode, and good cyclability was obtained. This work may pave a new way to floating and freestanding TiO2 and other semiconductor materials, which has great potential not only in basic science but also in the applications such as materials engineering, Li-ion battery, photocatalyst, dye-sensitized solar cell, and flexible electronics.

Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Friesz, Aaron M.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Wilson, Tamara; Soulard, Christopher E.; Knuppe, Michelle; Van Hofwegen, Travis

2014-01-01

Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 5 Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the Forecasting Scenarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit datasets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of 10 anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting have relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less 15 forest cutting. Stand ages differ substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, 20 biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.

Futures of elderly care in Iran: A protocol with scenario approach.

PubMed

Goharinezhad, Salime; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Baradaran, Hamid Reza; Ravaghi, Hamid

2016-01-01

Background: The number of people aged 60 and older is increasing faster than other age groups worldwide. Iran will experience a sharp aging population increase in the next decades, and this will pose new challenges to the healthcare system. Since providing high quality aged-care services would be the major concern of the policymakers, this question arises that what types of aged care services should be organized in the coming 10 years? This protocol has been designed to develop a set of scenarios for the future of elderly care in Iran. Methods: In this study, intuitive logics approach and Global Business Network (GBN) model were used to develop scenarios for elderly care in Iran. In terms of perspective, the scenarios in this approach are normative, qualitative with respect to methodology and deductive in constructing the process of scenarios. The three phases of GBN model are as follows: 1) Orientation: Identifying strategic levels, stakeholders, participants and time horizon; 2) Exploration: Identifying the driving forces and key uncertainties; 3) Synthesis: Defining the scenario logics and constructing scenario storyline. Results: Presently, two phases are completed and the results will be published in mid-2016. Conclusion: This study delivers a comprehensive framework for taking appropriate actions in providing care for the elderly in the future. Moreover, policy makers should specify and provide the full range of services for the elderly, and in doing so, the scenarios and key findings of this study could be of valuable help.

Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

2014-05-01

The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied including: qualitative methods such as interviews, group discussions and fuzzy cognitive mapping to identify land use/cover change processes, their driving forces and possible consequences, and final scenario generation; and geospatial methods such as GIS, geostatistics and environmental modeling in an environment for geoprocessing objects (Dinamica EGO) for spatial allocation of these scenarios. The methods were applied in the Italian Alps and the Romanian Carpathians. Both are mountainous areas, however they differ in terms of past and most likely future socio-economic development, and therefore consequent land use/cover changes. Whereas we focused on urban expansion due to tourism development in the Alps, we focused on possible deforestation trajectories in the Carpathians. In both areas, the recognized most significant driving forces were either not covered by accessible data, or were characterized as intangible. With the proposed framework we were able to generate futures scenarios despite these shortcomings, and enabling the transferability of the method.

Adapting a scenario tree model for freedom from disease as surveillance progresses: the Canadian notifiable avian influenza model.

PubMed

Christensen, Jette; El Allaki, Farouk; Vallières, André

2014-05-01

Scenario tree models with temporal discounting have been applied in four continents to support claims of freedom from animal disease. Recently, a second (new) model was developed for the same population and disease. This is a natural development because surveillance is a dynamic process that needs to adapt to changing circumstances - the difficulty is the justification for, documentation of, presentation of and the acceptance of the changes. Our objective was to propose a systematic approach to present changes to an existing scenario tree model for freedom from disease. We used the example of how we adapted the deterministic Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza scenario tree model published in 2011 to a stochastic scenario tree model where the definition of sub-populations and the estimation of probability of introduction of the pathogen were modified. We found that the standardized approach by Vanderstichel et al. (2013) with modifications provided a systematic approach to make and present changes to an existing scenario tree model. We believe that the new 2013 CanNAISS scenario tree model is a better model than the 2011 model because the 2013 model included more surveillance data. In particular, the new data on Notifiable Avian Influenza in Canada from the last 5 years were used to improve input parameters and model structure. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Transfer of Vibrio Parahaemolyticus During Peeling of Raw Shrimp.

PubMed

Xiao, Xingning; Pang, Haiying; Wang, Wen; Fang, Weihuan; Fu, Yingchun; Li, Yanbin

2018-03-01

This study aimed to qualify the transfer of Vibrio parahaemolyticus during the shrimp peeling process via gloves under 3 different scenarios. The 1st 2 scenarios provided quantitative information for the probability distribution of bacterial transfer rates from (i) contaminated shrimp (6 log CFU/g) to non-contaminated gloves (Scenario 1) and (ii) contaminated gloves (6 log CFU/per pair) to non-contaminated shrimp (Scenario 2). In Scenario 3, bacterial transfer from contaminated shrimp to non-contaminated shrimp in the shrimp peeling process via gloves was investigated to develop a predictive model for describing the successive bacterial transfer. The range of bacterial transfer rate (%) in Scenarios 1 and 2 was 7% to 91.95% and 0.04% to 12.87%, respectively, indicating that the bacteria can be transferred from shrimp to gloves much easier than that from gloves to shrimp. A Logistic (1.59, 0.14) and Triangle distribution (-1.61, 0.12, 1.32) could be used to describe the bacterial transfer rate in Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. In Scenario 3, a continuously decay patterning with fluctuations as the peeling progressed has been observed at all inoculation levels of the 1st shrimp (5, 6, and 7 log CFU/g). The bacteria could be transferred easier at 1st few peels, and the decreasing bacterial transfer was found in later phase. Two models (exponential and Weibull) could describe the successive bacterial transfer satisfactorily (pseudo-R 2 > 0.84, RMSE < 1.23, SEP < 10.37). The result of this study can provide information regarding cross-contamination events in the seafood factory. This study presented that Vibrio parahaemolyticus cross-contamination could be caused by gloves during the shrimp peeling process. The bacterial transfer rate distribution and predictive model derived from this work could be used in risk assessment of V. parahaemolyticus to ensure peeled shrimp safety. © 2018 Institute of Food Technologists®.

Systematically extracting metal- and solvent-related occupational information from free-text responses to lifetime occupational history questionnaires.

PubMed

Friesen, Melissa C; Locke, Sarah J; Tornow, Carina; Chen, Yu-Cheng; Koh, Dong-Hee; Stewart, Patricia A; Purdue, Mark; Colt, Joanne S

2014-06-01

Lifetime occupational history (OH) questionnaires often use open-ended questions to capture detailed information about study participants' jobs. Exposure assessors use this information, along with responses to job- and industry-specific questionnaires, to assign exposure estimates on a job-by-job basis. An alternative approach is to use information from the OH responses and the job- and industry-specific questionnaires to develop programmable decision rules for assigning exposures. As a first step in this process, we developed a systematic approach to extract the free-text OH responses and convert them into standardized variables that represented exposure scenarios. Our study population comprised 2408 subjects, reporting 11991 jobs, from a case-control study of renal cell carcinoma. Each subject completed a lifetime OH questionnaire that included verbatim responses, for each job, to open-ended questions including job title, main tasks and activities (task), tools and equipment used (tools), and chemicals and materials handled (chemicals). Based on a review of the literature, we identified exposure scenarios (occupations, industries, tasks/tools/chemicals) expected to involve possible exposure to chlorinated solvents, trichloroethylene (TCE) in particular, lead, and cadmium. We then used a SAS macro to review the information reported by study participants to identify jobs associated with each exposure scenario; this was done using previously coded standardized occupation and industry classification codes, and a priori lists of associated key words and phrases related to possibly exposed tasks, tools, and chemicals. Exposure variables representing the occupation, industry, and task/tool/chemicals exposure scenarios were added to the work history records of the study respondents. Our identification of possibly TCE-exposed scenarios in the OH responses was compared to an expert's independently assigned probability ratings to evaluate whether we missed identifying possibly exposed jobs. Our process added exposure variables for 52 occupation groups, 43 industry groups, and 46 task/tool/chemical scenarios to the data set of OH responses. Across all four agents, we identified possibly exposed task/tool/chemical exposure scenarios in 44-51% of the jobs in possibly exposed occupations. Possibly exposed task/tool/chemical exposure scenarios were found in a nontrivial 9-14% of the jobs not in possibly exposed occupations, suggesting that our process identified important information that would not be captured using occupation alone. Our extraction process was sensitive: for jobs where our extraction of OH responses identified no exposure scenarios and for which the sole source of information was the OH responses, only 0.1% were assessed as possibly exposed to TCE by the expert. Our systematic extraction of OH information found useful information in the task/chemicals/tools responses that was relatively easy to extract and that was not available from the occupational or industry information. The extracted variables can be used as inputs in the development of decision rules, especially for jobs where no additional information, such as job- and industry-specific questionnaires, is available. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society 2014.

Potato processing scenario in India: Industrial constraints, future projections, challenges ahead and remedies - A review.

PubMed

Marwaha, R S; Pandey, S K; Kumar, Dinesh; Singh, S V; Kumar, Parveen

2010-03-01

Indian potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) processing industry has emerged fast due to economic liberalization coupled with growing urbanization, expanding market options and development of indegenous processing varieties. India's first potato processing varieties 'Kufri Chipsona-1' and 'Kufri Chipsona-2' were developed in 1998, followed by an improved processing variety 'Kufri Chipsona-3' in 2005 for the Indian plains and first chipping variety 'Kufri Himsona' for the hills. These varieties have >21% tuber dry matter content, contain low reducing sugars (<0.1% on fresh wt) and are most suitable for producing chips, French fries and dehydrated products. The availability of these varieties and standardization of storage techniques for processing potatoes at 10-12°C with sprout suppressant isopropyl N-(3-chlorophenyl) carbamate have revolutionized the processing scenario within a short span of 10 years. Currently about 4% of total potato produce is being processed in organized and unorganized sector. Potato processing industry mainly comprises 4 segments: potato chips, French fries, potato flakes/powder and other processed products. However, potato chips still continue to be the most popular processed product. The major challenge facing the industries lies in arranging round the year supply of processing varieties at reasonable price for their uninterrupted operation, besides several others which have been discussed at length and addressed with concrete solutions.

Supporting strategic thinking of smallholder dairy farmers using a whole farm simulation tool.

PubMed

Le Gal, Pierre-Yves; Bernard, Jennifer; Moulin, Charles-Henri

2013-06-01

This article investigates how a one-to-one support process based on the use of a whole dairy farm simulation tool helps both farmers to reflect on their production strategies and researchers to better understand the farmers' contexts of action and decision. The support process consists of a minimum of four discussion sessions with the farmer: designing the Initial Scenario and formulating a diagnosis, building and simulating the Project Scenario corresponding to the objective targeted by the farmer, building and comparing alternative scenarios proposed both by the farmer and the researcher, and evaluating the process with the farmer. The approach was tested with six smallholder farmers in Brazil. It is illustrated with the example of one farmer who aimed to develop his milk production by more than doubling his herd size on the same cultivated area. Two other examples illustrate the diversity of issues addressed with this approach. The first estimates the sensitivity of economic results to price variations of milk and concentrates. The second compares two scenarios in terms of forage supply autonomy. The discussion assesses the outcomes of the approach for farmers in terms of response to their specific issues and of knowledge acquired. The research outputs are discussed in terms of the value and limits of using simulation tools within both participatory action research and advisory processes.

Polyfire project- an example of an industrial research project promoting safe industrial production of fire-resistant nanocomposites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaquero, C.; López de Ipiña, J.; Galarza, N.; Hargreaves, B.; Weager, B.; Breen, C.

2011-07-01

New developments based on nanotechnology have to guarantee safe products and processes to be accepted by society. The Polyfire project will develop and scale-up techniques for processing halogen-free, fire-retardant nanocomposite materials and coatings based on unsaturated polyester resins and organoclays. The project includes a work package that will assess the Health and Environmental impacts derived from the manipulation of nanoparticles. This work package includes the following tasks: (1) Identification of Health and Environment Impacts derived from the processes, (2) Experimentation to study specific Nanoparticle Emissions, (3) Development of a Risk Management Methodology for the process, and (4) A Comparison of the Health and Environmental Impact of New and Existing Materials. To date, potential exposure scenarios to nanomaterials have been identified through the development of a Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the new production processes. In the next step, these scenarios will be studied and simulated to evaluate potential emissions of nanomaterials. Polyfire is a collaborative European project, funded by the European Commission 7th Framework Programme (Grant Agreement No 229220). It features 11 partners from 5 countries (5 SMEs, 3 research institutes, 2 large companies, 1 association) and runs for three years (1st September 2009 - 31st August 2012). This project is an example of an industrial research development which aims to introduce to the market new products promoting the safe use of nanomaterials.

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

An analysis of international nuclear fuel supply options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, J'tia Patrice

As the global demand for energy grows, many nations are considering developing or increasing nuclear capacity as a viable, long-term power source. To assess the possible expansion of nuclear power and the intricate relationships---which cover the range of economics, security, and material supply and demand---between established and aspirant nuclear generating entities requires models and system analysis tools that integrate all aspects of the nuclear enterprise. Computational tools and methods now exist across diverse research areas, such as operations research and nuclear engineering, to develop such a tool. This dissertation aims to develop methodologies and employ and expand on existing sources to develop a multipurpose tool to analyze international nuclear fuel supply options. The dissertation is comprised of two distinct components: the development of the Material, Economics, and Proliferation Assessment Tool (MEPAT), and analysis of fuel cycle scenarios using the tool. Development of MEPAT is aimed for unrestricted distribution and therefore uses publicly available and open-source codes in its development when possible. MEPAT is built using the Powersim Studio platform that is widely used in systems analysis. MEPAT development is divided into three modules focusing on: material movement; nonproliferation; and economics. The material movement module tracks material quantity in each process of the fuel cycle and in each nuclear program with respect to ownership, location and composition. The material movement module builds on techniques employed by fuel cycle models such as the Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation (VISION) code developed at the Idaho National Laboratory under the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI) for the analysis of domestic fuel cycle. Material movement parameters such as lending and reactor preference, as well as fuel cycle parameters such as process times and material factors are user-specified through a Microsoft Excel(c) data spreadsheet. The material movement module is the largest of the three, and the two other modules that assess nonproliferation and economics of the options are dependent on its output. Proliferation resistance measures from literature are modified and incorporated in MEPAT. The module to assess the nonproliferation of the supply options allows the user to specify defining attributes for the fuel cycle processes, and determines significant quantities of materials as well as measures of proliferation resistance. The measure is dependent on user-input and material information. The economics module allows the user to specify costs associated with different processes and other aspects of the fuel cycle. The simulation tool then calculates economic measures that relate the cost of the fuel cycle to electricity production. The second part of this dissertation consists of an examination of four scenarios of fuel supply option using MEPAT. The first is a simple scenario illustrating the modules and basic functions of MEPAT. The second scenario recreates a fuel supply study reported earlier in literature, and compares MEPAT results with those reported earlier for validation. The third, and a rather realistic, scenario includes four nuclear programs with one program entering the nuclear energy market. The fourth scenario assesses the reactor options available to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, which is currently assessing available options to introduce nuclear power in the country. The methodology developed and implemented in MEPAT to analyze the material, proliferation and economics of nuclear fuel supply options is expected to help simplify and assess different reactor and fuel options available to utilities, government agencies and international organizations.

A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, Ghana.

PubMed

Kotir, Julius H; Smith, Carl; Brown, Greg; Marshall, Nadine; Johnstone, Ron

2016-12-15

In a rapidly changing water resources system, dynamic models based on the notion of systems thinking can serve as useful analytical tools for scientists and policy-makers to study changes in key system variables over time. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics simulation model was developed using a system dynamics modelling approach to examine the feedback processes and interaction between the population, the water resource, and the agricultural production sub-sectors of the Volta River Basin in West Africa. The objective of the model is to provide a learning tool for policy-makers to improve their understanding of the long-term dynamic behaviour of the basin, and as a decision support tool for exploring plausible policy scenarios necessary for sustainable water resource management and agricultural development. Structural and behavioural pattern tests, and statistical test were used to evaluate and validate the performance of the model. The results showed that the simulated outputs agreed well with the observed reality of the system. A sensitivity analysis also indicated that the model is reliable and robust to uncertainties in the major parameters. Results of the business as usual scenario showed that total population, agricultural, domestic, and industrial water demands will continue to increase over the simulated period. Besides business as usual, three additional policy scenarios were simulated to assess their impact on water demands, crop yield, and net-farm income. These were the development of the water infrastructure (scenario 1), cropland expansion (scenario 2) and dry conditions (scenario 3). The results showed that scenario 1 would provide the maximum benefit to people living in the basin. Overall, the model results could help inform planning and investment decisions within the basin to enhance food security, livelihoods development, socio-economic growth, and sustainable management of natural resources. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional scenario building as a tool to support vulnerability assessment of food & water security and livelihood conditions under varying natural resources managements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Dickens, Chris; Kabaseke, Clovis; Mulugeta Lemenih, Kassaye; Sghaier, Mongi; Hattermann, Fred

2013-04-01

Participatory regional scenario building was carried out with stakeholders and local researchers in four meso-scale case studies (CS) in Africa. In all CS the improvement of food and / or water security and livelihood conditions was identified as the focal issue. A major concern was to analyze the impacts of different plausible future developments on these issues. The process of scenario development is of special importance as it helps to identify main drivers, critical uncertainties and patterns of change. Opportunities and constraints of actors and actions become clearer and reveal adaptation capacities. Effective strategies must be furthermore reasonable and accepted by local stakeholders to be implemented. Hence, developing scenarios and generating strategies need the integration of local knowledge. The testing of strategies shows how they play out in different scenarios and how robust they are. Reasons and patterns of social and natural vulnerability can so be shown. The scenario building exercise applied in this study is inspired by the approach from Peter Schwartz. It aims at determining critical uncertainties and to identify the most important driving forces for a specific focal issue which are likely to shape future developments of a region. The most important and uncertain drivers were analyzed and systematized with ranking exercises during meetings with local researchers and stakeholders. Cause-effect relationships were drawn in the form of concept maps either during the meetings or by researchers based on available information. Past observations and the scenario building outcomes were used to conduct a trend analysis. Cross-comparisons were made to find similarities and differences between CS in terms of main driving forces, patterns of change, opportunities and constraints. Driving forces and trends which aroused consistently over scenarios and CS were identified. First results indicate that livelihood conditions of people rely often directly on the state and availability of natural resources. Major concerns in all CS are the fast growing populations and natural resources degradation because of unsustainable natural resource management. Land use and resource competition are a consequence of unclear land tenure systems and limited resources availability. Scarce rainfall with high annual variability causes food insecurity if yield failures cannot be compensated, e.g. because of lacking financial resources. In all case studies critical uncertainties were identified to be more or less related to "poor governance". Missing governmental and political stability and effectiveness as well as corruption hamper the implementation of laws and policies related to natural resource management. Other critical uncertainties lie in the social domain. They are either related to demographic patterns like emigration or immigration varying the pressure on natural resources use or to the society in general like the evolvement of people's environmental awareness or voice and accountability. Methodological outcomes of the scenario building were that the complexity of the process requires the use of reliable and powerful tools to support the communication process. Concept maps were found to be a useful tool in this regard.

Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

PubMed

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

2013-01-01

Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

A new comprehension and communication tool: a valuable resource for internationally educated occupational therapists.

PubMed

Nguyen, Tram; Baptiste, Sue; Jung, Bonny; Wilkins, Seanne

2014-06-01

The need was identified for a way to assess internationally educated occupational therapists’ skills in understanding and communicating professional terminology used in occupational therapy practice. The project aim was to develop and validate such a resource. A scenario-based assessment was developed using a three-phase process for tool development. The development process involved completion of a literature scan of professional terminology used in occupational therapy practice; selection of terms and concepts commonly used in occupational therapy practice; and, creation of practice-based scenarios illustrating key concepts complete with rating rubrics. An advisory group provided oversight, and a sample of internationally educated occupational therapists completed pilot and validity testing. The initial findings showed the assessment to be easy to complete and sensitive to testing understanding of the defined terms. The final outcome is an assessment tool that has broad application for occupational therapists wishing to enter professional practice in a new country. © 2013 Occupational Therapy Australia.

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, L. A.

2012-12-01

Resource management decisions must be based on future expectations. Abundant evidence suggests climate change will have highly consequential effects on the Nation's natural and cultural resources, but specific impacts are difficult to accurately predict. This situation of too much information but not enough specificity can often lead to either paralysis or denial for decision makers. Scenario planning is an emerging tool for climate change adaptation that provides a structured framework for identifying and exploring critical drivers of change and their uncertain outcomes. Since 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with its partners to develop and apply a scenario-based approach for adaptation planning that integrates quantitative, model-driven, climate change projections with qualitative, participatory exercises to explore management and policy options under a range of future conditions. Major outcomes of this work are (1) increased understanding of key scientific results and uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into park and landscape level planning, (3) identification of "no brainer" and "no gainer" actions, (4) strengthening of regional science-management partnerships, and (5) overall improved capacity for flexible decision making. The basic approach employed by NPS for scenario planning follows a typical adaptive management process: define the focal question, assess the relevant science, explore plausible futures, identify effective strategies, prioritize and implement actions, and monitor results. Many science and management partners contributed to the process, including NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs) and Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), USGS Research Centers, and other university and government scientists. The Global Business Network, an internationally recognized leader in scenario development, provided expert facilitation and training techniques. Climate science input is provided through global and regional circulation models and downscaling to arrive at climate driver information that is relevant for parks and the landscapes within which they are found. Considerable effort is necessary to synthesize the information and to effectively communicate uncertainties about both values and trend (e.g. scientists have higher confidence in the trend of temperature over a given time period than the value). Drivers that are determined to be highly consequential and uncertain are used to create management-relevant scenarios using various techniques, including a structured 2X2 matrix approach, a succession of rapid combinations using multiple variables, and the development of a base, "least change" scenario from which alternatives are then constructed. Socio-economic factors are also considered as essential factors that define the full decision environment within which management and policy decisions are made. Resulting scenarios incorporate information about impacts to natural and cultural resources as well as facilities and visitor experience. The NPS conducted prototypes for scenario planning in each of seven regions and has begun to incorporate elements of the process into all planning requirements. A significant outcome of this work is managers and scientists alike understand climate and ecosystem models provide tools for exploring the future rather than predicting it.

Army Sustainability Modelling Analysis and Reporting Tool Phase 1: User Manual and Results Interpretation Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-11-01

force structure liability analysis tool, designed to forecast the dynamics of personnel and equipment populations over time for a particular scenario...it is intended that it will support analysis of the sustainability of planned Army force structures against a range of possible scenarios, as well as...the force options testing process. A-SMART Phase 1 has been limited to the development of personnel, major equipment and supplies/strategic lift

Collaboration in Global Software Engineering Based on Process Description Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Harald; Rausch, Andreas; Fischer, Edward

Globalization is one of the big trends in software development. Development projects need a variety of different resources with appropriate expert knowledge to be successful. More and more of these resources are nowadays obtained from specialized organizations and countries all over the world, varying in development approaches, processes, and culture. As seen with early outsourcing attempts, collaboration may fail due to these differences. Hence, the major challenge in global software engineering is to streamline collaborating organizations towards a successful conjoint development. Based on typical collaboration scenarios, this paper presents a structured approach to integrate processes in a comprehensible way.

Responses of eastern Chinese coastal salt marshes to sea-level rise combined with vegetative and sedimentary processes.

PubMed

Ge, Zhen-Ming; Wang, Heng; Cao, Hao-Bin; Zhao, Bin; Zhou, Xiao; Peltola, Heli; Cui, Li-Fang; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Zhang, Li-Quan

2016-06-23

The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems have attracted worldwide attention in relation to global change. In this study, the salt marsh model for the Yangtze Estuary (SMM-YE, developed in China) and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM, developed in the U.S.) were used to simulate the effects of SLR on the coastal salt marshes in eastern China. The changes in the dominant species in the plant community were also considered. Predictions based on the SLAMM indicated a trend of habitat degradation up to 2100; total salt marsh habitat area continued to decline (4-16%) based on the low-level scenario, with greater losses (6-25%) predicted under the high-level scenario. The SMM-YE showed that the salt marshes could be resilient to threats of SLR through the processes of accretion of mudflats, vegetation expansion and sediment trapping by plants. This model predicted that salt marsh areas increased (3-6%) under the low-level scenario. The decrease in the total habitat area with the SMM-YE under the high-level scenario was much lower than the SLAMM prediction. Nevertheless, SLR might negatively affect the salt marsh species that are not adapted to prolonged inundation. An adaptive strategy for responding to changes in sediment resources is necessary in the Yangtze Estuary.

Responses of eastern Chinese coastal salt marshes to sea-level rise combined with vegetative and sedimentary processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Zhen-Ming; Wang, Heng; Cao, Hao-Bin; Zhao, Bin; Zhou, Xiao; Peltola, Heli; Cui, Li-Fang; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Zhang, Li-Quan

2016-06-01

The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems have attracted worldwide attention in relation to global change. In this study, the salt marsh model for the Yangtze Estuary (SMM-YE, developed in China) and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM, developed in the U.S.) were used to simulate the effects of SLR on the coastal salt marshes in eastern China. The changes in the dominant species in the plant community were also considered. Predictions based on the SLAMM indicated a trend of habitat degradation up to 2100; total salt marsh habitat area continued to decline (4-16%) based on the low-level scenario, with greater losses (6-25%) predicted under the high-level scenario. The SMM-YE showed that the salt marshes could be resilient to threats of SLR through the processes of accretion of mudflats, vegetation expansion and sediment trapping by plants. This model predicted that salt marsh areas increased (3-6%) under the low-level scenario. The decrease in the total habitat area with the SMM-YE under the high-level scenario was much lower than the SLAMM prediction. Nevertheless, SLR might negatively affect the salt marsh species that are not adapted to prolonged inundation. An adaptive strategy for responding to changes in sediment resources is necessary in the Yangtze Estuary.

Teaching Driver Education Technology to Novice Drivers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Anthony

A cybernetic unit in driver education was developed to help grade 10 students develop the skills needed to acquire and process driver education information and prepare for the driving phase of driver education in grade 11. Students used a simulator to engage in a series of scenarios designed to promote development of social, behavioral, and mental…

Scenario Planning for Water Resources: a Forward-looking Approach Combining Science, Demographic Trends and Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, F.; Thorsten, W.

2007-12-01

Although there has been much written about the use of scenario analysis for long-term planning, particularly with respect to the decisions facing firms, the extant literature has few examples of scenarios explicitly applied to water resource issues. Fewer still have considered short-fuse events such as floods and failure of water retention and conveyance structures in the context of longer-term scenarios for water resources planning. We report progress on an effort to develop a unified framework for constructing scenarios for water resource management. We place particular emphasis on semi-arid environments and forces external to the traditional water management process such as high-impact weather and climate events or unforeseen changes in government institutions that may drive unanticipated change in environmental systems. Most water resource scenarios are typically based on high, medium and low projections of demographics (gpcd), climate (precipitation, temperature), and perhaps institutional variables (conveyance infrastructure, legal issues). We discuss the relative merits of this with other approaches including: probabalistic scenarios, which explicitly weight the likelihood of different outcomes; anticipatory scenarios, which consider how to achieve or avoid some subjective future state; strategic scenarios, which seeks to identify the inconsistencies between disciplines in the way the environmental models are constructed

Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

2013-12-01

Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to extend and refine participatory scenario planning methods from the development of regional qualitative narratives to (1) development of scenario narratives that are relevant at the local management level, (2) creation and evaluation of portfolios of management options that can accommodate changes in management objectives, connect to formal agency planning processes, and that can be adjusted as the future evolves, and (3) explicit identification of the data and information that link qualitative narratives to quantitative scenario and adaptation assessments, which can be used to drive the timing and implementation of activities within the adaptation portfolios, and to prioritize monitoring and research activities to resolve near-term uncertainties. Project tasks are structured around four resource teams that focus on their specific management concerns (Montane, Riparian, Upland and Cultural), but that come together periodically to consider interaction and conflict among their scenarios or prospective adaptation. Participants are finding that embracing uncertainty enables them to approach climate change with a sense of empowerment rather than a sense of reacting to crises, and they appreciate the methods and opportunities for thinking differently and crossing boundaries that the scenario planning exercises provide.

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

2013-04-01

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process of the development of the climate scenarios; *) users are involved already in the early phases of the development of new scenarios, among others in the following way: **) workshops on users' requirements to check whether they have changed and to get more information; **) feedback group of users to get more detailed feedback on the modes of communication; **) newsletter with information on the progress and procedures to be followed and separate workshops for researchers and policy makers with different levels of detail; **) projects together with impact researchers: tailoring of data and in order to be able to present impact information consistent with the climate scenarios much earlier. During the presentation more detailed information will be given on the interaction with users.

Data quality objectives for TWRS privatization phase 1: confirm tank T is an appropriate feed source for low-activity waste feed batch X

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NGUYEN, D.M.

1999-06-01

The US. Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) has initiated Phase 1 of a two-phase privatization strategy for treatment and immobilization of low-activity waste (LAW) currently being managed by the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Project. In this strategy, DOE will purchase services from a contractor-owned and operated facility under a fixed price. The Phase 1 TWRS privatization contract requires that the Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) contractors, on behalf of DOE, deliver LAW feed in specified quantities and composition to the Privatization Contractor in a timely manner (DOE-RL 1996). Additional requirements are imposed by the interface controlmore » document (ICD-19) for LAW feed (PHMC 1997). In response to these requirements, the Tank Waste Remediation System Operation and Utilization Plan (TWRSO and UP) (Kirkbride et al. 1997) was prepared by the PHMC. The TWRSO and UP, as updated by the Readiness-To-Proceed deliverable (Payne et al. 1998), establishes the baseline operating scenario for the delivery of LAW feed to the Privatization Contractor. The scenario specifies tanks from which LAW will be provided for each feed batch, the operational activities needed to prepare and deliver each batch, and the timing of these activities. The operating scenario was developed based on current knowledge of waste composition and chemistry, waste transfer methods, and operating constraints, such as tank farm logistics and availability of tank space. A project master baseline schedule (PMBS) has been developed to implement the operating scenario. The PMBS also includes activities aimed at reducing programmatic risks. One of the activities, ''Confirm Plans and Requirements,'' was identified to verify the basis used to develop the scenario. Additional data on waste quantity, physical and chemical characteristics, and transfer properties will be needed to support this activity. This document describes the data quality objective (DQO) process undertaken to assme appropriate data will be collected to support the activity, ''Confirm Tank Plans and Requirements.'' The DQO process was implemented in accordance with the TWRS DQO process (Banning 1997) with some modifications to accommodate project or tank-specific requirements and constraints.« less

Understanding the Dynamics of Socio-Hydrological Environment: a Conceptual Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woyessa, Y.; Welderufael, W.; Edossa, D.

2011-12-01

Human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threaten to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the change of ecosystems under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting land-use changes. Recently the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. A conceptual framework is being developed which integrates climate change scenarios and the human dimension of land use decision into a hydrological model in order to assess its impacts on the socio-hydrological dynamics of a river basin. The following figures present the framework for the analysis and modelling of the socio-hydrological dynamics. Keywords: climate change, land use, river basin

Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

2015-11-01

This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania.

PubMed

Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

2015-11-01

This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67% more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10% forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

Image Processing and Computer Aided Diagnosis in Computed Tomography of the Breast

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

TERMS breast imaging, breast CT, scatter compensation, denoising, CAD , Cone-beam CT 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF...clinical projection images. The CAD tool based on signal known exactly (SKE) scenario is under development. Task 6: Test and compare the...performances of the CAD developed in Task 5 applied to processed projection data from Task 1 with the CAD performance on the projection data without Bayesian

Multi-spatial analysis of forest residue utilization for bioenergy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobson, Ryan A.; Keefe, Robert F.; Smith, Alistair M. S.

2016-06-17

The alternative energy sector is expanding quickly in the USA since passage of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Increased interest in wood-based bioenergy has led to the need for robust modeling methods to analyze woody biomass operations at landscape scales. However, analyzing woody biomass operations in regions like the US Inland Northwest is difficult due to highly variable terrain and wood characteristics. We developed the Forest Residue Economic Assessment Model (FREAM) to better integrate with Geographical Information Systems and overcome analytical modeling limitations. FREAM analyzes wood-based bioenergy logistics systems andmore » provides a modeling platform that can be readily modified to analyze additional study locations. We evaluated three scenarios to test the FREAM's utility: a local-scale scenario in which a catalytic pyrolysis process produces gasoline from 181 437 Mg yr-1 of forest residues, a regional-scale scenario that assumes a biochemical process to create aviation fuel from 725 748 Mg yr-1 of forest residues, and an international scenario that assumes a pellet mill producing pellets for international markets from 272 155 Mg yr-1 of forest residues. The local scenario produced gasoline for a modeled cost of $22.33 GJ-1*, the regional scenario produced aviation fuel for a modeled cost of $35.83 GJ-1 and the international scenario produced pellets for a modeled cost of $10.51 GJ-1. Results show that incorporating input from knowledgeable stakeholders in the designing of a model yields positive results.« less

Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mirko Previsic

2010-06-17

Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. Inmore » September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory issues (Pacific Energy Ventures) and navigational issues (PCCI). The results of this study are structured into three reports: (1) Wave power scenario description (2) Tidal power scenario description (3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent (1) a small pilot deployment, (2) a small commercial deployment, and (3) a large commercial scale plant. It is important to understand that the purpose of this study was to establish baseline scenarios based on basic device data that was provided to use by the manufacturer for illustrative purposes only.« less

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nativi, Stefano; Santoro, Mattia

2010-05-01

In the last years, scientific community is producing great efforts in order to study the effects of climate change on life on Earth. In this general framework, a key role is played by the impact of climate change on biodiversity. To assess this, several use scenarios require the modeling of climatological change impact on the regional distribution of biodiversity species. Designing and developing interoperability infrastructures which enable scientists to search, discover, access and use multi-disciplinary resources (i.e. datasets, services, models, etc.) is currently one of the main research fields for the Earth and Space Science Informatics. This presentation introduces and discusses an interoperability infrastructure which implements the discovery, access, and chaining of loosely-coupled resources in the climatology and biodiversity domains. This allows to set up and run forecast and processing models. The presented framework was successfully developed and experimented in the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2) Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group. This interoperability infrastructure is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access Transaction server: this component publishes the model outputs. This framework was assessed in two use scenarios of GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity WG. Both scenarios concern the prediction of species distributions driven by climatological change forecasts. The first scenario dealt with the Pikas specie regional distribution in the Great Basin area (North America). While, the second one concerned the modeling of the Arctic Food Chain species in the North Pole area -the relationships between different environmental parameters and Polar Bears distribution was analyzed. The scientific patronage was provided by the University of Colorado and the University of Alaska, respectively. Results are published in the GEOSS AIP-2 web site: http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP2develop.

Analysis of ground-motion simulation big data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeda, T.; Fujiwara, H.

2016-12-01

We developed a parallel distributed processing system which applies a big data analysis to the large-scale ground motion simulation data. The system uses ground-motion index values and earthquake scenario parameters as input. We used peak ground velocity value and velocity response spectra as the ground-motion index. The ground-motion index values are calculated from our simulation data. We used simulated long-period ground motion waveforms at about 80,000 meshes calculated by a three dimensional finite difference method based on 369 earthquake scenarios of a great earthquake in the Nankai Trough. These scenarios were constructed by considering the uncertainty of source model parameters such as source area, rupture starting point, asperity location, rupture velocity, fmax and slip function. We used these parameters as the earthquake scenario parameter. The system firstly carries out the clustering of the earthquake scenario in each mesh by the k-means method. The number of clusters is determined in advance using a hierarchical clustering by the Ward's method. The scenario clustering results are converted to the 1-D feature vector. The dimension of the feature vector is the number of scenario combination. If two scenarios belong to the same cluster the component of the feature vector is 1, and otherwise the component is 0. The feature vector shows a `response' of mesh to the assumed earthquake scenario group. Next, the system performs the clustering of the mesh by k-means method using the feature vector of each mesh previously obtained. Here the number of clusters is arbitrarily given. The clustering of scenarios and meshes are performed by parallel distributed processing with Hadoop and Spark, respectively. In this study, we divided the meshes into 20 clusters. The meshes in each cluster are geometrically concentrated. Thus this system can extract regions, in which the meshes have similar `response', as clusters. For each cluster, it is possible to determine particular scenario parameters which characterize the cluster. In other word, by utilizing this system, we can obtain critical scenario parameters of the ground-motion simulation for each evaluation point objectively. This research was supported by CREST, JST.

Determination of the potential implementation impact of 2016 ministry of environmental protection generic assessment criteria for potentially contaminated sites in China.

PubMed

Cheng, Yuanyuan; Tang, Yu-Ting; Nathanail, C Paul

2017-04-12

The Ministry of Environmental Protection of China issued a 3rd draft edition of risk-based Generic Assessment Criteria (the MEP-GAC) in March 2016. Since these will be the first authoritative GAC in China, their implementation is likely to have a significant impact on China's growing contaminated land management sector. This study aims to determine the potential implementation impact of the MEP-GAC through an in-depth analysis of the management context, land use scenarios, health criteria values adopted and exposure pathways considered. The MEP-GAC have been proposed for two broad categories of land use scenarios for contaminated land risk assessment, and these two categories of land use scenarios need to be further delved, and a MEP-GAC for Chinese cultivated land scenario ought to be developed, to ensure human health protection of Chinese farmers. The MEP-GAC have adopted 10 -6 as the acceptable lifetime cancer risk, given the widespread extent and severe level of land contamination in China, consideration should be given to the decision on excess lifetime cancer risk of 10 -5 . During risk assessment process in practice, it is better to review the 20% TDI against local circumstances to determine their suitability before adopting it. The MEP-GAC are based on a SOM value of 1%, for regions with particularly high SOM, it might be necessary to develop regional GAC, due to SOM's significant impact on the GAC developed. An authoritative risk assessment model developed based on HJ25.3-2014 would help facilitate the DQRA process in practice. The MEP-GAC could better reflect the likely exposures of China's citizens due to vapour inhalation by using characteristics of Chinese exposure scenarios, including China-generic building stock, as inputs into the Johnson and Ettinger model as opposed to adoption of the US EPA parameters. The MEP-GAC once implemented will set the trajectory for the development of the investigation, assessment and remediation of land contamination for years.

Explaining the Ba, Y, Sr, and Eu abundance scatter in metal-poor halo stars: constraints to the r-process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescutti, G.; Chiappini, C.

2014-05-01

Context. Thanks to the heroic observational campaigns carried out in recent years we now have large samples of metal-poor stars for which measurements of detailed abundances exist. In particular, large samples of stars with metallicities -5 < [Fe/H] <-1 and measured abundances of Sr, Ba, Y, and Eu are now available. These data hold important clues on the nature of the contribution of the first stellar generations to the enrichment of our Galaxy. Aims: We aim to explain the scatter in Sr, Ba, Y, and Eu abundance ratio diagrams unveiled by the metal-poor halo stars. Methods: We computed inhomogeneous chemical evolution models for the Galactic halo assuming different scenarios for the r-process site: the electron-capture (EC) supernovae and the magnetorotationally driven (MRD) supernovae scenarios. We also considered models with and without the contribution of fast-rotating massive stars (spinstars) to an early enrichment by the s-process. A detailed comparison with the now large sample of stars with measured abundances of Sr, Ba, Y, Eu, and Fe is provided (both in terms of scatter plots and number distributions for several abundance ratios). Results: The scatter observed in these abundance ratios of the very metal-poor stars (with [Fe/H] <-2.5) can be explained by combining the s-process production in spinstars, and the r-process contribution coming from massive stars. For the r-process we have developed models for both the EC and the MRD scenarios that match the observations. Conclusions: With the present observational and theoretical constraints we cannot distinguish between the EC and the MRD scenarios in the Galactic halo. Independently of the r-process scenarios adopted, the production of elements by an s-process in spinstars is needed to reproduce the spread in abundances of the light neutron capture elements (Sr and Y) over heavy neutron capture elements (Ba and Eu). We provide a way to test our suggestions by means of the distribution of the Ba isotopic ratios in a [Ba/Fe] or [Sr/Ba] vs. [Fe/H] diagram. Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Minimizing makespan in a two-stage flow shop with parallel batch-processing machines and re-entrant jobs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J. D.; Liu, J. J.; Chen, Q. X.; Mao, N.

2017-06-01

Against a background of heat-treatment operations in mould manufacturing, a two-stage flow-shop scheduling problem is described for minimizing makespan with parallel batch-processing machines and re-entrant jobs. The weights and release dates of jobs are non-identical, but job processing times are equal. A mixed-integer linear programming model is developed and tested with small-scale scenarios. Given that the problem is NP hard, three heuristic construction methods with polynomial complexity are proposed. The worst case of the new constructive heuristic is analysed in detail. A method for computing lower bounds is proposed to test heuristic performance. Heuristic efficiency is tested with sets of scenarios. Compared with the two improved heuristics, the performance of the new constructive heuristic is superior.

Simulation and evaluation on the eco-industrial system of Changchun economic and technological development zone, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yan; Shang, Jin-cheng; Chen, Chong; Wu, He-nan

2008-04-01

Reasonable structure, adaptive patterns and effective regulation of society, economy and environment subsystems should be taken into account in order to obtain harmonious development of urban eco-industrial system. We simulated and evaluated a redesigned eco-industrial system in Changchun Economic and Technological Development Zone (CCETDZ) in the present work using system dynamics and grey cluster methods. Four typical development strategies were simulated during 2005-2020 via standard system dynamic models. Furthermore, analytic hierarchy process and grey cluster allowed for the eco-industrial system evaluation and scenarios optimizing. Our dynamic simulation and statistical analysis revealed that: (1) CCETDZ would have different development scenarios under different strategies. The total population in scenario 2 grew most rapidly and reached 3.28 x 10(5) in 2020, exceeding its long-term planning expected population. And the GDP differences among these four scenarios would amount to 6.41 x 10(10) RMB. On the other hand, environmental pollution would become serious along with economy increasing. As a restriction factor, positive or negative increment of water resource will occur according to the selected strategy. (2) The fourth strategy would have the best efficiency, which means that the most efficiently development of CCETDZ required to take science, technology, environment progress and economy increase into account at the same time. (3) Positive environment protection measures, such as cleaner production, green manufacture, production life cycle management and environment friendly industries, should be attached great importance the same as economy development during 2005-2020 in CCETDZ.

Hydrological Scenario Using Tools and Applications Available in enviroGRIDS Portal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacu, V.; Mihon, D.; Stefanut, T.; Rodila, D.; Cau, P.; Manca, S.; Soru, C.; Gorgan, D.

2012-04-01

Nowadays the decision makers but also citizens are concerning with the sustainability and vulnerability of land management practices on various aspects and in particular on water quality and quantity in complex watersheds. The Black Sea Catchment is an important watershed in the Central and East Europe. In the FP7 project enviroGRIDS [1] was developed a Web Portal that incorporates different tools and applications focused on geospatial data management, hydrologic model calibration, execution and visualization and training activities. This presentation highlights, from the end-user point of view, the scenario related with hydrological models using the tools and applications available in the enviroGRIDS Web Portal [2]. The development of SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) hydrological models is a well known procedure for the hydrological specialists [3]. Starting from the primary data (information related to weather, soil properties, topography, vegetation, and land management practices of the particular watershed) that are used to develop SWAT hydrological models, to specific reports, about the water quality in the studied watershed, the hydrological specialist will use different applications available in the enviroGRIDS portal. The tools and applications available through the enviroGRIDS portal are not dealing with the building up of the SWAT hydrological models. They are mainly focused on: calibration procedure (gSWAT [4]) - uses the GRID computational infrastructure to speed-up the calibration process; development of specific scenarios (BASHYT [5]) - starts from an already calibrated SWAT hydrological model and defines new scenarios; execution of scenarios (gSWATSim [6]) - executes the scenarios exported from BASHYT; visualization (BASHYT) - displays charts, tables and maps. Each application is built-up as a stack of functional layers. We combine different layers of applications by vertical interoperability in order to build the desired complex functionality. On the other hand, the applications can collaborate at the same architectural levels, which represent the horizontal interoperability. Both the horizontal and vertical interoperability is accomplished by services and by exchanging data. The calibration procedure requires huge computational resources, which are provided by the Grid infrastructure. On the other hand the scenario development through BASHYT requires a flexible way of interaction with the SWAT model in order to easily change the input model. The large user community of SWAT from the enviroGRIDS consortium or outside may greatly benefit from tools and applications related with the calibration process, scenario development and execution from the enviroGRIDS portal. [1]. enviroGRIDS project, http://envirogrids.net/ [2]. Gorgan D., Abbaspour K., Cau P., Bacu V., Mihon D., Giuliani G., Ray N., Lehmann A., Grid Based Data Processing Tools and Applications for Black Sea Catchment Basin. IDAACS 2011 - The 6th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications 15-17 September 2011, Prague. IEEE Computer Press, pp. 223 - 228 (2011). [3]. Soil and Water Assessment Tool, http://www.brc.tamus.edu/swat/index.html [4]. Bacu V., Mihon D., Rodila D., Stefanut T., Gorgan D., Grid Based Architectural Components for SWAT Model Calibration. HPCS 2011 - International Conference on High Performance Computing and Simulation, 4-8 July, Istanbul, Turkey, ISBN 978-1-61284-381-0, doi: 10.1109/HPCSim.2011.5999824, pp. 193-198 (2011). [5]. Manca S., Soru C., Cau P., Meloni G., Fiori M., A multi model and multiscale, GIS oriented Web framework based on the SWAT model to face issues of water and soil resource vulnerability. Presentation at the 5th International SWAT Conference, August 3-7, 2009, http://www.brc.tamus.edu/swat/4thswatconf/docs/rooma/session5/Cau-Bashyt.pdf [6]. Bacu V., Mihon D., Stefanut T., Rodila D., Gorgan D., Cau P., Manca S., Grid Based Services and Tools for Hydrological Model Processing and Visualization. SYNASC 2011 - 13 International Symposium on Symbolic and Numeric Algorithms for Scientific Computing (in press).

Impaired ecosystem process despite little effects on populations: modeling combined effects of warming and toxicants.

PubMed

Galic, Nika; Grimm, Volker; Forbes, Valery E

2017-08-01

Freshwater ecosystems are exposed to many stressors, including toxic chemicals and global warming, which can impair, separately or in combination, important processes in organisms and hence higher levels of organization. Investigating combined effects of warming and toxicants has been a topic of little research, but neglecting their combined effects may seriously misguide management efforts. To explore how toxic chemicals and warming, alone and in combination, propagate across levels of biological organization, including a key ecosystem process, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) of a freshwater amphipod detritivore, Gammarus pseudolimnaeus, feeding on leaf litter. In this IBM, life history emerges from the individuals' energy budgets. We quantified, in different warming scenarios (+1-+4 °C), the effects of hypothetical toxicants on suborganismal processes, including feeding, somatic and maturity maintenance, growth, and reproduction. Warming reduced mean adult body sizes and population abundance and biomass, but only in the warmest scenarios. Leaf litter processing, a key contributor to ecosystem functioning and service delivery in streams, was consistently enhanced by warming, through strengthened interaction between the detritivorous consumer and its resource. Toxicant effects on feeding and maintenance resulted in initially small adverse effects on consumers, but ultimately led to population extinction and loss of ecosystem process. Warming in combination with toxicants had little effect at the individual and population levels, but ecosystem process was impaired in the warmer scenarios. Our results suggest that exposure to the same amount of toxicants can disproportionately compromise ecosystem processing depending on global warming scenarios; for example, reducing organismal feeding rates by 50% will reduce resource processing by 50% in current temperature conditions, but by up to 200% with warming of 4 °C. Our study has implications for assessing and monitoring impacts of chemicals on ecosystems facing global warming. We advise complementing existing monitoring approaches with directly quantifying ecosystem processes and services. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Human-environment interactions and sustainable urban development: Spatial modeling and landscape prediction the case of Nang Rong town, Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varnakovida, Pariwate

It is now well-recognized that, at local, regional, and global scales, land use changes are significantly altering land cover, perhaps at an accelerating pace. Further, the world's scientific community is increasingly recognizing what, in retrospect, should have been obvious, that human behavior and agency is a critical driver of Land Cover and Land Use Change. In this research, using recently developed computer modeling procedures and a rich case study, I develop spatially-explicit model-based simulations of LULCC scenarios within the rubric of sustainability science for Nang Rong town, Thailand. The research draws heavily on recent work in geography and complexity theory. A series of scenarios were built to explore different development trajectories based upon empirically observed relationships. The development models incorporate a) history and spatial pattern of village settlement; b) road development and changing geographic accessibility; c) population; d) biophysical characteristics and e) social drivers. This research uses multi-temporal and spatially-explicit data, analytic results, and dynamic modeling approaches combined with to describe, explain, and explore LULCC as the consequences of different production theories for rural, small town urbanization in the South East Asian context. Two Agent Based models were built: 1) Settlement model and 2) Land-use model. The Settlement model suggests that new development will emerge along the existing road network especially along the major highway and in close proximity to the urban center. If the population doubles in 2021, the settlement process may inhibit development along some corridors creating low density sprawl. The Land-use model under the urban expansion scenario suggests that new settlements will occur in close proximity to the town center and roads; even though, the area is suitable for rice farming or located on a flood plain. The Land-use model under the cash-crop expansion scenario captures that new agriculture will occur on the flood plain and other areas suitable for rice farming. The Land-use model under the King's Theory scenario suggests that agriculture agents occupied more disperse lands than the cash-crops scenario. In addition, the King's Theory scenario provided more access to water surface than other scenarios and was the most sustainable development plan. These products offer a better understanding of the urban growth and LULCC at a regional scale and will potentially guide more systematic and effective resource management and policy decisions. Although this research focuses on a specific site, the methods employed are applicable to other rural regions with similar characteristics.

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging activities. The method results in the development of LULC maps providing insights into a range of alternative futures using a scope of socio-economic and environmental conditions. A landslides assessment model, the ALICE model is then used as a final tool to analyze the potential impacts of simulated LUCC on landslide risks and the consequences in terms of vulnerability, e.g. changes in disaster risk allocation or characterization, degree of perturbation. This assessment intends to provide insights onto the potential future development of the valley to help identify areas at stake and to guide decision makers to help the risk management. Preliminary results show strong differences of futures land use and land cover maps that have significant influence on landslides hazards.

Objective comparison of particle tracking methods.

PubMed

Chenouard, Nicolas; Smal, Ihor; de Chaumont, Fabrice; Maška, Martin; Sbalzarini, Ivo F; Gong, Yuanhao; Cardinale, Janick; Carthel, Craig; Coraluppi, Stefano; Winter, Mark; Cohen, Andrew R; Godinez, William J; Rohr, Karl; Kalaidzidis, Yannis; Liang, Liang; Duncan, James; Shen, Hongying; Xu, Yingke; Magnusson, Klas E G; Jaldén, Joakim; Blau, Helen M; Paul-Gilloteaux, Perrine; Roudot, Philippe; Kervrann, Charles; Waharte, François; Tinevez, Jean-Yves; Shorte, Spencer L; Willemse, Joost; Celler, Katherine; van Wezel, Gilles P; Dan, Han-Wei; Tsai, Yuh-Show; Ortiz de Solórzano, Carlos; Olivo-Marin, Jean-Christophe; Meijering, Erik

2014-03-01

Particle tracking is of key importance for quantitative analysis of intracellular dynamic processes from time-lapse microscopy image data. Because manually detecting and following large numbers of individual particles is not feasible, automated computational methods have been developed for these tasks by many groups. Aiming to perform an objective comparison of methods, we gathered the community and organized an open competition in which participating teams applied their own methods independently to a commonly defined data set including diverse scenarios. Performance was assessed using commonly defined measures. Although no single method performed best across all scenarios, the results revealed clear differences between the various approaches, leading to notable practical conclusions for users and developers.

a Distributed Online 3D-LIDAR Mapping System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmiemann, J.; Harms, H.; Schattenberg, J.; Becker, M.; Batzdorfer, S.; Frerichs, L.

2017-08-01

In this paper we are presenting work done within the joint development project ANKommEn. It deals with the development of a highly automated robotic system for fast data acquisition in civil disaster scenarios. One of the main requirements is a versatile system, hence the concept embraces a machine cluster consisting of multiple fundamentally different robotic platforms. To cover a large variety of potential deployment scenarios, neither the absolute amount of participants, nor the precise individual layout of each platform shall be restricted within the conceptual design. Thus leading to a variety of special requirements, like onboard and online data processing capabilities for each individual participant and efficient data exchange structures, allowing reliable random data exchange between individual robots. We are demonstrating the functionality and performance by means of a distributed mapping system evaluated with real world data in a challenging urban and rural indoor/outdoor scenarios.

The Influence of Power Limitations on Closed Environment Life Support System Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flynn, Michael; Kliss, Mark (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

The future of manned space exploration will be determined through a process which balances the innate need of humanity to explore its surroundings and the costs associated with accomplishing these goals. For NASA, this balance is derived from economics and budgetary constraints that hold it accountable for the expenditure of public funds. These budgetary realities demand a reduction in cost and expenditures of exploration and research activities. For missions venturing out to the edge of habitability, the development of cost effective life support approaches will have a significant influence on mission viability. Over the past several years, a variety of mission scenarios for potential Lunar and Mars missions have been developed. The most promising of these scenarios attempt to provide basic mission requirements at a minimum cost. As a result, these scenarios are extremely power limited. For Closed Environment Life Support System (CELSS) applications, these realities impose both limitations and direction to future research. This paper presents a summary of these mission scenarios and an evaluation of the impact which these power limitations will have on CELSS system design.

Integrating science, policy and stakeholder perspectives for water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbour, Emily; Allan, Andrew; Whitehead, Paul; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Lazzar, Attila; Lim, Michelle; Munsur Rahman, Md.

2015-04-01

Successful management of water resources requires an integrated approach considering the complex relationships between different biophysical processes, governance frameworks and socio-economic factors. The Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) Deltas project has developed a range of socio-economic scenarios using a participatory approach, and applied these across different biophysical models as well as an integrated environmental, socio-economic model of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta. This work demonstrates a novel approach through the consideration of multiple ecosystem services and related socio-economic factors in the development of scenarios; the application of these to multiple models at multiple scales; and the participatory approach to improve project outcomes and engage national level stakeholders and policy makers. Scenarios can assist in planning for an uncertain future through exploring plausible alternatives. To adequately assess the potential impacts of future changes and management strategies on water resources, the wider biophysical, socio-economic and governance context needs to be considered. A series of stakeholder workshops have been held in Bangladesh to identify issues of main concern relating to the GBM Delta; to iteratively develop scenario narratives for business as usual, less sustainable, and more sustainable development pathways; and to translate these qualitative scenarios into a quantitative form suitable for analysis. The combined impact of these scenarios and climate change on water quantity and quality within the GBM Basin are demonstrated. Results suggest that climate change is likely to impact on both peak and low flows to a greater extent than most socio-economic changes. However, the diversion of water from the Ganges and Brahmaputra has the potential to significantly impact on water availability in Bangladesh depending on the timing and quantity of diversions. Both climate change and socio-economic scenarios are likely to impact on water quality. This work provides the foundation for investigating the effects of different policy and management interventions in coastal Bangladesh, and exploring trade-offs between different water resource objectives, and other ecosystem, social or economic objectives.

Smart-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat K; Palmintier, Bryan S; Hodge, Brian S

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Universidad Pontificia Comillas (Comillas-IIT, Spain) and GE Grid Solutions, is working on an ARPA-E GRID DATA project, titled Smart-DS, to create: 1) High-quality, realistic, synthetic distribution network models, and 2) Advanced tools for automated scenario generation based on high-resolution weather data and generation growth projections. Through these advancements, the Smart-DS project is envisioned to accelerate the development, testing, and adoption of advanced algorithms, approaches, and technologies for sustainable and resilient electric power systems, especially in the realm of U.S. distribution systems. This talk will present themore » goals and overall approach of the Smart-DS project, including the process of creating the synthetic distribution datasets using reference network model (RNM) and the comprehensive validation process to ensure network realism, feasibility, and applicability to advanced use cases. The talk will provide demonstrations of early versions of synthetic models, along with the lessons learnt from expert engagements to enhance future iterations. Finally, the scenario generation framework, its development plans, and co-ordination with GRID DATA repository teams to house these datasets for public access will also be discussed.« less

Surface extra-vehicular activity emergency scenario management: Tools, procedures, and geologically related implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zea, Luis; Diaz, Alejandro R.; Shepherd, Charles K.; Kumar, Ranganathan

2010-07-01

Extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) are an essential part of human space exploration, but involve inherently dangerous procedures which can put crew safety at risk during a space mission. To help mitigate this risk, astronauts' training programs spend substantial attention on preparing for surface EVA emergency scenarios. With the help of two Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS) crews (61 and 65), wearing simulated spacesuits, the most important of these emergency scenarios were examined at three different types of locations that geologically and environmentally resemble lunar and Martian landscapes. These three platforms were analyzed geologically as well as topographically (utilizing a laser range finder with slope estimation capabilities and a slope determination software). Emergency scenarios were separated into four main groups: (1) suit issues, (2) general physiological, (3) attacks and (4) others. Specific tools and procedures were developed to address each scenario. The tools and processes were tested in the field under Mars-analog conditions with the suited subjects for feasibility and speed of execution.

Data near processing support for climate data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kindermann, Stephan; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Hempelmann, Nils

2016-04-01

Climate data repositories grow in size exponentially. Scalable data near processing capabilities are required to meet future data analysis requirements and to replace current "data download and process at home" workflows and approaches. On one hand side, these processing capabilities should be accessible via standardized interfaces (e.g. OGC WPS), on the other side a large variety of processing tools, toolboxes and deployment alternatives have to be supported and maintained at the data/processing center. We present a community approach of a modular and flexible system supporting the development, deployment and maintenace of OGC-WPS based web processing services. This approach is organized in an open source github project (called "bird-house") supporting individual processing services ("birds", e.g. climate index calculations, model data ensemble calculations), which rely on basic common infrastructural components (e.g. installation and deployment recipes, analysis code dependencies management). To support easy deployment at data centers as well as home institutes (e.g. for testing and development) the system supports the management of the often very complex package dependency chain of climate data analysis packages as well as docker based packaging and installation. We present a concrete deployment scenario at the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The DKRZ one hand side hosts a multi-petabyte climate archive which is integrated e.g. into the european ENES and worldwide ESGF data infrastructure, and on the other hand hosts an HPC center supporting (model) data production and data analysis. The deployment scenario also includes openstack based data cloud services to support data import and data distribution for bird-house based WPS web processing services. Current challenges for inter-institutionnal deployments of web processing services supporting the european and international climate modeling community as well as the climate impact community are highlighted. Also aspects supporting future WPS based cross community usage scenarios supporting data reuse and data provenance aspects are reflected.

Towards an optimal adaptation of exposure to NOAA assessment methodology in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS): the challenges and the decision-making process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López de Ipiña, JM; Vaquero, C.; Gutierrez-Cañas, C.

2017-06-01

It is expected a progressive increase of the industrial processes that manufacture of intermediate (iNEPs) and end products incorporating ENMs (eNEPs) to bring about improved properties. Therefore, the assessment of occupational exposure to airborne NOAA will migrate, from the simple and well-controlled exposure scenarios in research laboratories and ENMs production plants using innovative production technologies, to much more complex exposure scenarios located around processes of manufacture of eNEPs that, in many cases, will be modified conventional production processes. Here will be discussed some of the typical challenging situations in the process of risk assessment of inhalation exposure to NOAA in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS), from the basis of the lessons learned when confronted to those scenarios in the frame of some European and Spanish research projects.

Impact of unseen assumptions on communication of atmospheric carbon mitigation options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliot, T. R.; Celia, M. A.; Court, B.

2010-12-01

With the rapid access and dissemination of information made available through online and digital pathways, there is need for a concurrent openness and transparency in communication of scientific investigation. Even with open communication it is essential that the scientific community continue to provide impartial result-driven information. An unknown factor in climate literacy is the influence of an impartial presentation of scientific investigation that has utilized biased base-assumptions. A formal publication appendix, and additional digital material, provides active investigators a suitable framework and ancillary material to make informed statements weighted by assumptions made in a study. However, informal media and rapid communiqués rarely make such investigatory attempts, often citing headline or key phrasing within a written work. This presentation is focused on Geologic Carbon Sequestration (GCS) as a proxy for the wider field of climate science communication, wherein we primarily investigate recent publications in GCS literature that produce scenario outcomes using apparently biased pro- or con- assumptions. A general review of scenario economics, capture process efficacy and specific examination of sequestration site assumptions and processes, reveals an apparent misrepresentation of what we consider to be a base-case GCS system. The authors demonstrate the influence of the apparent bias in primary assumptions on results from commonly referenced subsurface hydrology models. By use of moderate semi-analytical model simplification and Monte Carlo analysis of outcomes, we can establish the likely reality of any GCS scenario within a pragmatic middle ground. Secondarily, we review the development of publically available web-based computational tools and recent workshops where we presented interactive educational opportunities for public and institutional participants, with the goal of base-assumption awareness playing a central role. Through a series of interactive ‘what if’ scenarios, workshop participants were able to customize the models, which continue to be available from the Princeton University Subsurface Hydrology Research Group, and develop a better comprehension of subsurface factors contributing to GCS. Considering that the models are customizable, a simplified mock-up of regional GCS scenarios can be developed, which provides a possible pathway for informal, industrial, scientific or government communication of GCS concepts and likely scenarios. We believe continued availability, customizable scenarios, and simplifying assumptions are an exemplary means to communicate the possible outcome of CO2 sequestration projects; the associated risk; and, of no small importance, the consequences of base assumptions on predicted outcome.

Quantifying induced effects of subsurface renewable energy storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, Sebastian; Beyer, Christof; Pfeiffer, Tilmann; Boockmeyer, Anke; Popp, Steffi; Delfs, Jens-Olaf; Wang, Bo; Li, Dedong; Dethlefsen, Frank; Dahmke, Andreas

2015-04-01

New methods and technologies for energy storage are required for the transition to renewable energy sources. Subsurface energy storage systems such as salt caverns or porous formations offer the possibility of hosting large amounts of energy or substance. When employing these systems, an adequate system and process understanding is required in order to assess the feasibility of the individual storage option at the respective site and to predict the complex and interacting effects induced. This understanding is the basis for assessing the potential as well as the risks connected with a sustainable usage of these storage options, especially when considering possible mutual influences. For achieving this aim, in this work synthetic scenarios for the use of the geological underground as an energy storage system are developed and parameterized. The scenarios are designed to represent typical conditions in North Germany. The types of subsurface use investigated here include gas storage and heat storage in porous formations. The scenarios are numerically simulated and interpreted with regard to risk analysis and effect forecasting. For this, the numerical simulators Eclipse and OpenGeoSys are used. The latter is enhanced to include the required coupled hydraulic, thermal, geomechanical and geochemical processes. Using the simulated and interpreted scenarios, the induced effects are quantified individually and monitoring concepts for observing these effects are derived. This presentation will detail the general investigation concept used and analyze the parameter availability for this type of model applications. Then the process implementation and numerical methods required and applied for simulating the induced effects of subsurface storage are detailed and explained. Application examples show the developed methods and quantify induced effects and storage sizes for the typical settings parameterized. This work is part of the ANGUS+ project, funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

A Co-Design Process Microanalysis: Stages and Facilitators of an Inquiry-Based and Technology-Enhanced Learning Scenario

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barbera, Elena; Garcia, Iolanda; Fuertes-Alpiste, Marc

2017-01-01

This paper presents a case study of the co-design process for an online course on Sustainable Development (Degree in Tourism) involving the teacher, two students, and the project researchers. The co-design process was founded on an inquiry-based and technology-enhanced model that takes shape in a set of design principles. The research had two main…

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufresne, J.-L.; Foujols, M.-A.; Denvil, S.; Caubel, A.; Marti, O.; Aumont, O.; Balkanski, Y.; Bekki, S.; Bellenger, H.; Benshila, R.; Bony, S.; Bopp, L.; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Cheruy, F.; Codron, F.; Cozic, A.; Cugnet, D.; de Noblet, N.; Duvel, J.-P.; Ethé, C.; Fairhead, L.; Fichefet, T.; Flavoni, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Grandpeix, J.-Y.; Guez, L.; Guilyardi, E.; Hauglustaine, D.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Ghattas, J.; Joussaume, S.; Kageyama, M.; Krinner, G.; Labetoulle, S.; Lahellec, A.; Lefebvre, M.-P.; Lefevre, F.; Levy, C.; Li, Z. X.; Lloyd, J.; Lott, F.; Madec, G.; Mancip, M.; Marchand, M.; Masson, S.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Mignot, J.; Musat, I.; Parouty, S.; Polcher, J.; Rio, C.; Schulz, M.; Swingedouw, D.; Szopa, S.; Talandier, C.; Terray, P.; Viovy, N.; Vuichard, N.

2013-05-01

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Analysis and Comparison on the Flood Simulation in Typical Hilly & Semi-mountainous Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luan, Qinghua; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Xiang; Liu, Jiahong; Fu, Xiaoran; Zhang, Kun; Ma, Jun

2017-12-01

Water-logging and flood are both serious in hilly and semi-mountainous cities of China, but the related research is rare. Lincheng Economic Development Zone (EDZ) in Hebei Province as the typical city was selected and storm water management model (SWMM) was applied for flood simulation in this study. The regional model was constructed through calibrating and verifying the runoff coefficient of different flood processes. Different designed runoff processes in five-year, ten-year and twenty-year return periods in basic scenario and in the low impact development (LID) scenario, respectively, were simulated and compared. The result shows that: LID measures have effect on peak reduction in the study area, but the effectiveness is not significant; the effectiveness of lagging peak time is poor. These simulation results provide decision support for the rational construction of LID in the study area, and provide the references for regional rain flood management.

Computer Simulation in Predicting Biochemical Processes and Energy Balance at WWTPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drewnowski, Jakub; Zaborowska, Ewa; Hernandez De Vega, Carmen

2018-02-01

Nowadays, the use of mathematical models and computer simulation allow analysis of many different technological solutions as well as testing various scenarios in a short time and at low financial budget in order to simulate the scenario under typical conditions for the real system and help to find the best solution in design or operation process. The aim of the study was to evaluate different concepts of biochemical processes and energy balance modelling using a simulation platform GPS-x and a comprehensive model Mantis2. The paper presents the example of calibration and validation processes in the biological reactor as well as scenarios showing an influence of operational parameters on the WWTP energy balance. The results of batch tests and full-scale campaign obtained in the former work were used to predict biochemical and operational parameters in a newly developed plant model. The model was extended with sludge treatment devices, including anaerobic digester. Primary sludge removal efficiency was found as a significant factor determining biogas production and further renewable energy production in cogeneration. Water and wastewater utilities, which run and control WWTP, are interested in optimizing the process in order to save environment, their budget and decrease the pollutant emissions to water and air. In this context, computer simulation can be the easiest and very useful tool to improve the efficiency without interfering in the actual process performance.

ISECG Mission Scenarios and Their Role in Informing Next Steps for Human Exploration Beyond Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Culbert, Christopher J.; Mongrard, Olivier; Satoh, Naoki; Goodliff, Kandyce; Seaman, Calvin H.; Troutman, Patrick; Martin, Eric

2011-01-01

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) was established in response to The Global Exploration Strategy (GES): The Framework for Coordination developed by fourteen space agencies* and released in May 2007. This GES Framework Document recognizes that preparing for human space exploration is a stepwise process, starting with basic knowledge and culminating in a sustained human presence in deep space. ISECG has developed several optional global exploration mission scenarios enabling the phased transition from human operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and utilization of the International Space Station (ISS) to human missions beyond LEO leading ultimately to human missions to cis-lunar space, the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids, Mars and its environs. Mission scenarios provide the opportunity for judging various exploration approaches in a manner consistent with agreed international goals and strategies. Each ISECG notional mission scenario reflects a series of coordinated human and robotic exploration missions over a 25-year horizon. Mission scenarios are intended to provide insights into next steps for agency investments, following on the success of the ISS. They also provide a framework for advancing the definition of Design Reference Missions (DRMs) and the concepts for capabilities contained within. Each of the human missions contained in the scenarios has been characterized by a DRM which is a top level definition of mission sequence and the capabilities needed to execute that mission. While DRMs are generally destination focused, they will comprise capabilities which are reused or evolved from capabilities used at other destinations. In this way, an evolutionary approach to developing a robust set of capabilities to sustainably explore our solar system is defined. Agencies also recognize that jointly planning for our next steps, building on the accomplishments of ISS, is important to ensuring the robustness and sustainability of any human exploration plan. Developing a shared long-term vision is important, but agencies recognize this is an evolutionary process and requires consideration of many strategic factors. Strategic factors such as the implications of an emerging commercial space industry in LEO, the opportunity provided by extending ISS lifetime to at least 2020, and the importance of defining a plan which is sustainable in light of inevitable domestic policy shifts are timely for agency consideration.

LCA of an ice cream cup of polyethylene coated paper: how does the choice of the end-of-life affect the results?

PubMed

Buccino, Carla; Ferrara, Carmen; Malvano, Carmela; De Feo, Giovanni

2017-11-07

This study presents an evaluation of the environmental performance of an ice cream cup made of polyethylene (PE)/paper laminate using a life cycle assessment approach 'from cradle to grave'. Two opposite alternative disposal scenarios, as well as their intermediate combinations, were considered: 100% incineration and 100% landfilling. The environmental impacts were calculated using the EPD 2013 evaluation method since the study was developed in an Environmental Product Declaration perspective as well as the method ReCiPe 2008 H at the endpoint level. PE/paper laminate production was the most impactful process since it provided the highest contribution to total impacts in four of six impact categories considered. Ice cream cup production was the second impactful process. The 100% incineration scenario provided negligible contribution to life cycle total impact for all impact categories; while considering the landfilling scenario, the percentage contributions to the total impact provided by the end-of-life phase increased considerably, until to be comparable to the contributions provided by the production processes of the PE/paper laminate and the ice cream cup. The obtained results highlighted that different disposal scenarios can affect significantly the conclusions of a study. At the endpoint level, incineration was more environmentally sound than landfilling for all the ReCiPe damage categories.

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

2009-12-01

Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access Transaction server: this component publishes the model outputs. The framework was successfully tested in two use scenarios of the GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity WG aiming to predict species distribution changes due to Climate Change factors, with the scientific patronage of the University of Colorado and the University of Alaska. The first scenario dealt with the Pikas specie regional distribution in the Great Basin area (North America). While, the second one concerned the modeling of the Arctic Food Chain species in the North Pole area -the relationships between different environmental parameters and Polar Bears distribution was analyzed. Results are published in the GEOSS AIP-2 web site: http://www.ogcnetwork.net/AIP2develop .

Towards the new CH2018 climate scenarios for Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andreas; Schär, Christoph; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Knutti, Reto; Liniger, Mark; Strassmann, Kuno

2017-04-01

There is a growing demand for regional assessments of future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems to inform and facilitate appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are consistent and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). Since then, new climate model simulations have become available and the scientific understanding has improved. It is hence desirable to update these national scenarios. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS), a network consisting of several federal offices and academic partners. The CH2018 scenarios will build primarily upon the latest Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations assuming different pathways of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Compared to CH2011, more emphasis will be put on changes in extremes and in putting the projected changes in the context of observed variability. Results of a recently conducted survey on end-user needs in Switzerland will guide the development process toward the CH2018 scenarios. It ensures that the scenarios are presented and communicated in a user-oriented format and find a wide applicability across different sectors in Switzerland. In the presentation we will show the full methodological setup to generate the CH2018 scenarios and how consistency across the methods and products is maximized. First results on mean changes and selected indices will be presented. In terms of dissemination, the results of the user survey show the necessity to address all different user types of climate scenarios, especially the non-experts. Compared to CH2011, this implies a stronger focus on consulting, condensing complex information and providing tutorials. In the presentation, we will outline our plans on dissemination in order to adequately address all relevant user groups of CH2018.

Climate Change and Socio-Hydrological Dynamics: Adaptations and Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woyessa, Yali E.; Welderufael, Worku A.

2012-10-01

A functioning ecological system results in ecosystem goods and services which are of direct value to human beings. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes which sustain and fulfil human life, and maintain biodiversity and the production of ecosystem goods. However, human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threatens to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the provision of ecosystem services and how they change under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting landuse changes. Recently, the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. The agent-based perspective, with regard to land-use cover change, is centered on the general nature and rules of land-use decision making by individuals. A conceptual framework is developed to investigate the possibility of incorporating the human dimension of land use decision and climate change model into a hydrological model in order to assess the impact of future land use scenario and climate change on the ecological system in general and water resources in particular.

QuickStrike ASOC Battlefield Simulation: Preparing the War Fighter to Win

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Richard L.

2010-01-01

The QuickStrike ASOC (Air Support Operations Center) Battlefield Simulation fills a crucial gap in USAF and United Kingdom Close Air Support (CAS) and airspace manager training. The system now provides six squadrons with the capability to conduct total-mission training events whenever the personnel and time are available. When the 111th ASOC returned from their first deployment to Afghanistan they realized the training available prior to deployment was inadequate. They sought an organic training capability focused on the ASOC mission that was low cost, simple to use, adaptable, and available now. Using a commercial off-the-shelf simulation, they developed a complete training system by adapting the simulation to their training needs. Through more than two years of spiral development, incorporating lessons learned, the system has matured, and can now realistically replicate the Tactical Operations Center (TOC) in Kabul, Afghanistan, the TOC supporting the mission in Iraq, or can expand to support a major conflict scenario. The training system provides a collaborative workspace for the training audience and exercise control group via integrated software and workstations that can easily adapt to new mission reqUirements and TOC configurations. The system continues to mature. Based on inputs from the war fighter, new capabilities have been incorporated to add realism and simplify the scenario development process. The QuickStrike simulation can now import TBMCS Air Tasking Order air mission data and can provide air and ground tracks to a common operating picture; presented through either C2PC or JADOCS. This oranic capability to practice team processes and tasks and to conduct mission rehearsals proved its value in the 111 h ASOS's next deployment. The ease of scenario development and the simple to learn and intuitive gamelike interface enables the squadrons to develop and share scenarios incorporating lessons learned from every deployment. These war fighters have now filled the training gap and have the capability they need to train to win.

Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment.

PubMed

Kunkel, Kenneth E; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

DOE PAGES

Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

2015-08-29

Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scalesmore » and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.« less

Age-Related Changes in Cognitive Processing of Moral and Social Conventional Violations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lahat, Ayelet; Helwig, Charles C.; Zelazo, Philip David

2012-01-01

Moral and conventional violations are usually judged differently: Only moral violations are treated as independent of social rules. To investigate the cognitive processing involved in the development of this distinction, undergraduates (N = 34), adolescents (N = 34), and children (N = 14) read scenarios presented on a computer that had 1 of 3…

Toward a Unified Modeling of Learner's Growth Process and Flow Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Challco, Geiser C.; Andrade, Fernando R. H.; Borges, Simone S.; Bittencourt, Ig I.; Isotani, Seiji

2016-01-01

Flow is the affective state in which a learner is so engaged and involved in an activity that nothing else seems to matter. In this sense, to help students in the skill development and knowledge acquisition (referred to as learners' growth process) under optimal conditions, the instructional designers should create learning scenarios that favor…

Scenario analysis and strategic planning: practical applications for radiology practices.

PubMed

Lexa, Frank James; Chan, Stephen

2010-05-01

Modern business science has many tools that can be of great value to radiologists and their practices. One of the most important and underused is long-term planning. Part of the problem has been the pace of change. Making a 5-year plan makes sense only if your develop robust scenarios of possible future conditions you will face. Scenario analysis is one of many highly regarded tools that can improve your predictive capability. However, as with many tools, it pays to have some training and to get practical tips on how to improve their value. It also helps to learn from other people's mistakes rather than your own. The authors discuss both theoretical and practical issues in using scenario analysis to improve your planning process. They discuss actionable ways this set of tools can be applied in a group meeting or retreat. Copyright (c) 2010 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Naturalistic Decision Making in Power Grid Operations: Implications for Dispatcher Training and Usability Testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin

2008-11-17

The focus of the present study is on improved training approaches to accelerate learning and improved methods for analyzing effectiveness of tools within a high-fidelity power grid simulated environment. A theory-based model has been developed to document and understand the mental processes that an expert power system operator uses when making critical decisions. The theoretical foundation for the method is based on the concepts of situation awareness, the methods of cognitive task analysis, and the naturalistic decision making (NDM) approach of Recognition Primed Decision Making. The method has been systematically explored and refined as part of a capability demonstration ofmore » a high-fidelity real-time power system simulator under normal and emergency conditions. To examine NDM processes, we analyzed transcripts of operator-to-operator conversations during the simulated scenario to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. The results of the analysis indicate that the proposed framework can be used constructively to map or assess the Situation Awareness Level of the operators at each point in the scenario. We can also identify the mental models and mental simulations that the operators employ at different points in the scenario. This report documents the method, describes elements of the model, and provides appendices that document the simulation scenario and the associated mental models used by operators in the scenario.« less

[Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

PubMed

Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

2015-08-01

Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

The Best-of-2-Worlds philosophy: developing local dismantling and global infrastructure network for sustainable e-waste treatment in emerging economies.

PubMed

Wang, Feng; Huisman, Jaco; Meskers, Christina E M; Schluep, Mathias; Stevels, Ab; Hagelüken, Christian

2012-11-01

E-waste is a complex waste category containing both hazardous and valuable substances. It demands for a cost-efficient treatment system which simultaneously liberates and refines target fractions in an environmentally sound way. In most developing countries there is a lack of systems covering all steps from disposal until final processing due to limited infrastructure and access to technologies and investment. This paper introduces the 'Best-of-2-Worlds' philosophy (Bo2W), which provides a network and pragmatic solution for e-waste treatment in emerging economies. It seeks technical and logistic integration of 'best' pre-processing in developing countries to manually dismantle e-waste and 'best' end-processing to treat hazardous and complex fractions in international state-of-the-art end-processing facilities. A series of dismantling trials was conducted on waste desktop computers, IT equipment, large and small household appliances, in order to compare the environmental and economic performances of the Bo2W philosophy with other conventional recycling scenarios. The assessment showed that the performance of the Bo2W scenario is more eco-efficient than mechanical separation scenarios and other local treatment solutions. For equipment containing substantial hazardous substances, it demands the assistance from domestic legislation for mandatory removal and safe handling of such fractions together with proper financing to cover the costs. Experience from Bo2W pilot projects in China and India highlighted key societal factors influencing successful implementation. These include market size, informal competitors, availability of national e-waste legislation, formal take-back systems, financing and trust between industrial players. The Bo2W philosophy can serve as a pragmatic and environmentally responsible transition before establishment of end-processing facilities in developing countries is made feasible. The executive models of Bo2W should be flexibly differentiated for various countries by adjusting to local conditions related to operational scale, level of centralized operations, dismantling depth, combination with mechanical processing and optimized logistics to international end-processors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Josephson, Gary B.; Geeting, John GH; Bredt, Ofelia P.

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been tasked by Bechtel National Inc. (BNI) on the River Protection Project-Waste Treatment Plant (RPP-WTP) project to perform research and development activities to resolve technical issues identified for the Pretreatment Facility (PTF). The Pretreatment Engineering Platform (PEP) was designed, constructed, and operated as part of a plan to respond to issue M12, "Undemonstrated Leaching Processes." The PEP is a 1/4.5-scale test platform designed to simulate the WTP pretreatment caustic leaching, oxidative leaching, ultrafiltration solids concentration, and slurry washing processes. The PEP replicates the WTP leaching processes using prototypic equipment and control strategies. The PEPmore » also includes non-prototypic ancillary equipment to support the core processing. Two operating scenarios are currently being evaluated for the ultrafiltration process (UFP) and leaching operations. The first scenario has caustic leaching performed in the UFP-2 ultrafiltration feed vessels (i.e., vessel UFP-VSL-T02A in the PEP; and vessels UFP-VSL-00002A and B in the WTP PTF). The second scenario has caustic leaching conducted in the UFP-1 ultrafiltration feed preparation vessels (i.e., vessels UFP-VSL-T01A and B in the PEP; vessels UFP-VSL-00001A and B in the WTP PTF). In both scenarios, 19-M sodium hydroxide solution (NaOH, caustic) is added to the waste slurry in the vessels to leach solid aluminum compounds (e.g., gibbsite, boehmite). Caustic addition is followed by a heating step that uses direct injection of steam to accelerate the leach process. Following the caustic leach, the vessel contents are cooled using vessel cooling jackets and/or external heat exchangers. The main difference between the two scenarios is that for leaching in UFP-1, the 19-M NaOH is added to un-concentrated waste slurry (3-8 wt% solids), while for leaching in UFP-2, the slurry is concentrated to nominally 20 wt% solids using cross-flow ultrafiltration before the addition of caustic. In both scenarios, following the caustic leach, the slurry was then concentrated to 17 wt% and washed with inhibited water to remove NaOH and other soluble salts. Next, the slurry was oxidatively leached using sodium permanganate to solubilize chrome. The slurry was then washed to remove the dissolved chrome and concentrated.« less

Physical environment virtualization for human activities recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poshtkar, Azin; Elangovan, Vinayak; Shirkhodaie, Amir; Chan, Alex; Hu, Shuowen

2015-05-01

Human activity recognition research relies heavily on extensive datasets to verify and validate performance of activity recognition algorithms. However, obtaining real datasets are expensive and highly time consuming. A physics-based virtual simulation can accelerate the development of context based human activity recognition algorithms and techniques by generating relevant training and testing videos simulating diverse operational scenarios. In this paper, we discuss in detail the requisite capabilities of a virtual environment to aid as a test bed for evaluating and enhancing activity recognition algorithms. To demonstrate the numerous advantages of virtual environment development, a newly developed virtual environment simulation modeling (VESM) environment is presented here to generate calibrated multisource imagery datasets suitable for development and testing of recognition algorithms for context-based human activities. The VESM environment serves as a versatile test bed to generate a vast amount of realistic data for training and testing of sensor processing algorithms. To demonstrate the effectiveness of VESM environment, we present various simulated scenarios and processed results to infer proper semantic annotations from the high fidelity imagery data for human-vehicle activity recognition under different operational contexts.

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

Scenario workshops: A useful method for participatory water resources planning?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzilacou, Dionyssia; Kallis, Giorgos; Mexa, Alexandra; Coccosis, Harris; Svoronou, Eleni

2007-06-01

This article reports on a scenario workshop (SW) for water resources management at the island of Naxos, Greece. The workshop was part of a European research project studying the advantages and limitations of different participatory methods in the context of the Water Framework Directive. It involved policy makers, scientists, business representatives, and citizens from different parts of the island. On the first day, participants worked to envision a sustainable development future for the island and its water resources. Discussion was inspired by four alternative water development scenarios prepared by the organizers. Participants' vision statements emphasized a diversified development path and balanced water solutions. On the second day, participants worked to plan the actions needed to realize their common vision. The SW turned out to be a good method to initiate a multipartner dialogue, to include new stakeholders in the water policy debate, and to a certain extent, to promote learning between participants. On the other hand, it did not appear well suited to resolve conflicts and aid decisions in the face of scientific complexity and uncertainty. SW seems to be a good method for the "upstream," preparatory, capacity-building tasks of a planning process but not for the production of substantive decision outputs such as consensual agreements or action plans. The Naxos experiment also raised the centrality of framing, participant selection, and facilitation in participatory processes.

Integration of Watershed Model AnnAGNPS and Stream Network Model CCHE1D for the Development of a New GIS-Based BMP Planning Tool

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper presents a new GIS-based Best Management Practice (BMP) Tool developed for watershed managers to assist in the decision making process by simulating various scenarios using various combinations of Best Management Practices (BMPs). The development of this BMPTool is based on the integratio...

Nanosilver as a disinfectant in dental unit waterlines ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dental unit water lines (DUWL) are susceptible to biofilm development and bacterial growth leading to water contamination, causing health and ecological effects. This study monitors the interactions between a commonly used nanosilver disinfectant (ASAP-AGX-32, an antimicrobial cleaner for dental units, 0.0032% Ag) and biofilm development in DUWL. To simulate the disinfection scenario, an in-house DUWL model was assembled and biofilm accumulation was allowed. Subsequent to biofilm development, the disinfection process was performed according to the manufacturer's instructions. The pristine nanosilver particles in the cleaner measured between 3 and 5 nm in diameter and were surrounded by a stabilizing polymer. However, the polymeric stabilizing agent diminished over the disinfection process, initiating partial AgNPs aggregation. Furthermore, surface speciation of the pristine AgNPs were identified as primarily AgO, and after the disinfection process, transformations to AgCl were observed. The physicochemical characteristics of AgNPs are known to govern their fate, and transport and environmental implications. Hence, knowledge of the AgNPs characteristics after the disinfection process (usage scenario) is of significance. This study demonstrates the adsorption of AgNPs onto biofilm surfaces and, therefore, will assist in illustration of the toxicity mechanisms of AgNPs to bacteria and biofilms. This work can be an initial step in better understanding how

Specification, Design, and Analysis of Advanced HUMS Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukkamala, Ravi

2004-01-01

During the two-year project period, we have worked on several aspects of domain-specific architectures for HUMS. In particular, we looked at using scenario-based approach for the design and designed a language for describing such architectures. The language is now being used in all aspects of our HUMS design. In particular, we have made contributions in the following areas. 1) We have employed scenarios in the development of HUMS in three main areas. They are: (a) To improve reusability by using scenarios as a library indexing tool and as a domain analysis tool; (b) To improve maintainability by recording design rationales from two perspectives - problem domain and solution domain; (c) To evaluate the software architecture. 2) We have defined a new architectural language called HADL or HUMS Architectural Definition Language. It is a customized version of xArch/xADL. It is based on XML and, hence, is easily portable from domain to domain, application to application, and machine to machine. Specifications written in HADL can be easily read and parsed using the currently available XML parsers. Thus, there is no need to develop a plethora of software to support HADL. 3) We have developed an automated design process that involves two main techniques: (a) Selection of solutions from a large space of designs; (b) Synthesis of designs. However, the automation process is not an absolute Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach though it uses a knowledge-based system that epitomizes a specific HUMS domain. The process uses a database of solutions as an aid to solve the problems rather than creating a new design in the literal sense. Since searching is adopted as the main technique, the challenges involved are: (a) To minimize the effort in searching the database where a very large number of possibilities exist; (b) To develop representations that could conveniently allow us to depict design knowledge evolved over many years; (c) To capture the required information that aid the automation process.

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

DOE PAGES

Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; ...

2017-09-09

This study presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development,more » regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).« less

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar

This study presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development,more » regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).« less

Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey S.; Cabrall, Christopher; Callantine, Todd

2013-01-01

Well prepared traffic scenarios contribute greatly to the success of controller-in-the-loop simulations. This paper describes each stage in the design process of realistic scenarios based on real-world traffic, to be used in the Airspace Operations Laboratory for simulations within the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration 1 effort. The steps from the initial analysis of real-world traffic, to the editing of individual aircraft records in the scenario file, until the final testing of the scenarios before the simulation conduct, are all described. The iterative nature of the design process and the various efforts necessary to reach the required fidelity, as well as the applied design strategies, challenges, and tools used during this process are also discussed.

A Biophysical Model for Hawaiian Coral Reefs: Coupling Local Ecology, Larval Transport and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapur, M. R.

2016-02-01

Simulative models of reef ecosystems have been used to evaluate ecological responses to a myriad of disturbance events, including fishing pressure, coral bleaching, invasion by alien species, and nutrient loading. The Coral Reef Scenario Evaluation Tool (CORSET), has been developed and instantiated for both the Meso-American Reef (MAR) and South China Sea (SCS) regions. This model is novel in that it accounts for the many scales at which reef ecosystem processes take place; is comprised of a "bottom-up" structure wherein complex behaviors are not pre-programmed, but emergent and highly portable to new systems. Local-scale dynamics are coupled across regions through larval connectivity matrices, derived sophisticated particle transport simulations that include key elements of larval behavior. By this approach, we are able to directly evaluate some of the potential consequences of larval connectivity patterns across a range of spatial scales and under multiple climate scenarios. This work develops and applies the CORSET (Coral Reef Scenario Evaluation Tool) to the Main Hawaiian Islands under a suite of climate and ecological scenarios. We introduce an adaptation constant into reef-building coral dynamics to simulate observed resiliencies to bleaching events. This presentation will share results from the model's instantiation under two Resource Concentration Pathway climate scenarios, with emphasis upon larval connectivity dynamics, emergent coral tolerance to increasing thermal anomalies, and patterns of spatial fishing closures. Results suggest that under a business-as-usual scenario, thermal tolerance and herbivore removal will have synergistic effects on reef resilience.

Objective comparison of particle tracking methods

PubMed Central

Chenouard, Nicolas; Smal, Ihor; de Chaumont, Fabrice; Maška, Martin; Sbalzarini, Ivo F.; Gong, Yuanhao; Cardinale, Janick; Carthel, Craig; Coraluppi, Stefano; Winter, Mark; Cohen, Andrew R.; Godinez, William J.; Rohr, Karl; Kalaidzidis, Yannis; Liang, Liang; Duncan, James; Shen, Hongying; Xu, Yingke; Magnusson, Klas E. G.; Jaldén, Joakim; Blau, Helen M.; Paul-Gilloteaux, Perrine; Roudot, Philippe; Kervrann, Charles; Waharte, François; Tinevez, Jean-Yves; Shorte, Spencer L.; Willemse, Joost; Celler, Katherine; van Wezel, Gilles P.; Dan, Han-Wei; Tsai, Yuh-Show; de Solórzano, Carlos Ortiz; Olivo-Marin, Jean-Christophe; Meijering, Erik

2014-01-01

Particle tracking is of key importance for quantitative analysis of intracellular dynamic processes from time-lapse microscopy image data. Since manually detecting and following large numbers of individual particles is not feasible, automated computational methods have been developed for these tasks by many groups. Aiming to perform an objective comparison of methods, we gathered the community and organized, for the first time, an open competition, in which participating teams applied their own methods independently to a commonly defined data set including diverse scenarios. Performance was assessed using commonly defined measures. Although no single method performed best across all scenarios, the results revealed clear differences between the various approaches, leading to important practical conclusions for users and developers. PMID:24441936

Life sciences biomedical research planning for Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Primeaux, Gary R.; Michaud, Roger; Miller, Ladonna; Searcy, Jim; Dickey, Bernistine

1987-01-01

The Biomedical Research Project (BmRP), a major component of the NASA Life Sciences Space Station Program, incorporates a laboratory for the study of the effects of microgravity on the human body, and the development of techniques capable of modifying or counteracting these effects. Attention is presently given to a representative scenario of BmRP investigations and associated engineering analyses, together with an account of the evolutionary process by which the scenarios and the Space Station design requirements they entail are identified. Attention is given to a tether-implemented 'variable gravity centrifuge'.

An Innovative and Successful Simulation Day.

PubMed

Bowling, Ann M; Eismann, Michelle

This article discusses the development of a creative and innovative plan to incorporate independent activities, including skill reviews and scenarios, into a single eight-hour day, using small student groups to enhance the learning process for pediatric nursing students. The simulation day consists of skills activities and pediatric simulation scenarios using the human patient simulator. Using small student groups in simulation captures the students' attention and enhances motivation to learn. The simulation day is a work in progress; appropriate changes are continually being made to improve the simulation experience for students.

Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 9, No. 2. Volume 9, No. 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowen, Brent (Editor); Kabashkin, Igor (Editor); Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar (Editor); Scarpellini, Nanette (Editor)

2004-01-01

The following articles from the "Journal of Air Transportation" were processed: Future Requirements and Concepts for Cabins of Blended Wing Body Configurations:A Scenario Approach; Future Scenarios for the European Airline Industry: A Marketing-Based Perspective; An Application of the Methodology for Assessment of the Sustainability of the Air Transport System; Modeling the Effect of Enlarged Seating Room on Passenger Preferences of Domestic Airlines in Taiwan; Developing a Fleet Standardization Index for Airline Pricing; and Future Airport Capacity Utilization in Germany: Peaked Congestion and/or Idle Capacity).

Scenario management and automated scenario generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKeever, William; Gilmour, Duane; Lehman, Lynn; Stirtzinger, Anthony; Krause, Lee

2006-05-01

The military planning process utilizes simulation to determine the appropriate course of action (COA) that will achieve a campaign end state. However, due to the difficulty in developing and generating simulation level COAs, only a few COAs are simulated. This may have been appropriate for traditional conflicts but the evolution of warfare from attrition based to effects based strategies, as well as the complexities of 4 th generation warfare and asymmetric adversaries have placed additional demands on military planners and simulation. To keep pace with this dynamic, changing environment, planners must be able to perform continuous, multiple, "what-if" COA analysis. Scenario management and generation are critical elements to achieving this goal. An effects based scenario generation research project demonstrated the feasibility of automated scenario generation techniques which support multiple stove-pipe and emerging broad scope simulations. This paper will discuss a case study in which the scenario generation capability was employed to support COA simulations to identify plan effectiveness. The study demonstrated the effectiveness of using multiple simulation runs to evaluate the effectiveness of alternate COAs in achieving the overall campaign (metrics-based) objectives. The paper will discuss how scenario generation technology can be employed to allow military commanders and mission planning staff to understand the impact of command decisions on the battlespace of tomorrow.

Laboratory Tests on Post-Filtration Precipitation in the WTP Pretreatment Process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russell, Renee L.; Peterson, Reid A.; Rinehart, Donald E.

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been tasked by Bechtel National Inc. (BNI) on the River Protection Project-Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (RPP-WTP) project to perform research and development activities to resolve technical issues identified for the Pretreatment Facility (PTF). The Pretreatment Engineering Platform (PEP) was designed, constructed, and operated as part of a plan to respond to issue M12, "Undemonstrated Leaching Processes," of the External Flowsheet Review Team (EFRT) issue response plan (Barnes et al. 2006). The PEP is a 1/4.5-scale test platform designed to simulate the WTP pretreatment caustic leaching, oxidative leaching, ultrafiltration solids concentration, andmore » slurry washing processes. The PEP replicates the WTP leaching processes using prototypic equipment and control strategies. A simplified flow diagram of the PEP system is shown in Figure 1.1. Two operating scenarios are currently being evaluated for the ultrafiltration process (UFP) and leaching operations. The first scenario has caustic leaching performed in the UFP-2 ultrafiltration feed vessels (i.e., vessel UFP-VSL-T02A in the PEP; and vessels UFP-VSL-00002A and B in the WTP PTF). The second scenario has caustic leaching conducted in the UFP-1 ultrafiltration feed preparation vessels (i.e., vessels UFP-VSL-T01A and B in the PEP; vessels UFP-VSL-00001A and B in the WTP PTF).« less

Opportunities to Foster Efficient Communication in Labor and Delivery Using Simulation.

PubMed

Daniels, Kay; Hamilton, Colleen; Crowe, Susan; Lipman, Steven S; Halamek, Louis P; Lee, Henry C

2017-01-01

Introduction  Communication errors are an important contributing factor in adverse outcomes in labor and delivery (L&D) units. The objective of this study was to identify common lapses in verbal communication using simulated obstetrical scenarios and propose alternative formats for communication. Methods  Health care professionals in L&D participated in three simulated clinical scenarios. Scenarios were recorded and reviewed to identify questions repeated within and across scenarios. Questions that were repeated more than once due to ineffective communication were identified. The frequency with which the questions were asked across simulations was identified. Results  Questions were commonly repeated both within and across 27 simulated scenarios. The median number of questions asked was 27 per simulated scenario. Commonly repeated questions focused on three general topics: (1) historical data/information (i.e., estimated gestational age), (2) maternal clinical status (i.e., estimated blood loss), and (3) personnel (i.e., "Has anesthesiologist been called?"). Conclusion  Inefficient verbal communication exists in the process of transferring information during obstetric emergencies. These findings can inform improved training and development of information displays to improve teamwork and communication. A visual display that can report static historical information and specific dynamic clinical data may facilitate optimal human performance.

Impacts of urbanisation on urban-rural water cycle: a China case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mingna; Singh, Shailesh Kumar; Zhang, Jun-e.; Khu, Soon Thiam

2016-04-01

Urbanization, which essentially create more impervious surface, is an inevitable part of modern societal development throughout the world. It produces several changes in the natural hydrological cycle by adding several processes. A better understanding of the impacts of urbanization, will allow policy makers to balance development and environment sustainability needs. It also helps underdeveloped countries make strategic decisions in their development process. The objective of this study is to understand and quantify the sensitivity of the urban-rural water cycle to urbanisation. A coupled hydrological model, MODCYCLE, was set up to simulate the effect of changes in landuse on daily streamflow and groundwater and applied to the Tianjin municipality, a rapidly urbanising mega-city on the east coast of China. The model uses landuse, land cover, soil, meteorological and climatic data to represent important parameters in the catchment. The fraction of impervious surface was used as a surrogate to quantify the degree of landuse change. In this work, we analysed the water cycle process under current urbanization situation in Tianjin. A number of different future development scenarios on based on increasing urbanisation intensity is explored. The results show that the expansion of urban areas had a great influence on generation of flow process and on ET, and the surface runoff was most sensitive to urbanisation. The results of these scenarios-based study about future urbanisation on hydrological system will help planners and managers in taking proper decisions regarding sustainable development.

An approach for the anticipatory and participatory management of current and future flood risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luther, J.

2012-04-01

Despite the fact that many measures to attenuate flood hazards and reduce vulnerabilities are being implemented, adverse effects of floods are ever-increasing in most parts of the world. On the one hand this holds true for economically and/or demographically growing regions. On the other hand this applies also to areas that face population shrinkage and economic problems. Such flood risks occur in human-environment systems and are subject to dynamics caused by a number of drivers such as climate change, land-use changes, and others. Many drivers evolve slowly over time or show time-lag effects and long return periods. Moreover, certain decisions may determine the control actions of the following decades. At present, current flood risks are mostly determined based on historic developments and the ex post analysis of flood events. Approaches that look at the future dynamics of both hazards and vulnerable elements ex ante in an integrated manner are rare. Instead, future hazard scenarios are often just overlaid with current socio-economic data, which poses a strong inconsistency. Usually the focus lies on rather short-term, specific or local problems. But many developments and measures show their effects only after long time periods and when considering the whole catchment area. This calls for a holistic and long-term view into the future and implies the challenge of dealing with many uncertainties due to the system's complexity. In order to anticipate and react to these developments, this contribution suggests developing a flexible, yet holistic approach to design, analyse and evaluate alternative futures of such human-environment systems. These futures follow a scenario understanding that considers both specific (current) factor constellations as well as consistent assumptions on autonomous developments (so-called development frameworks) and potentials for control (strategic alternatives) of the interacting entities that influence flood risk. Different scenario concepts and the application of respective techniques are thus reviewed and incorporated with regard to their suitability for an integrated management of current and future flood risks. In particular, "hybrid scenarios" with qualitative and quantitative components represented by nested models as well as assumptions across different spatiotemporal scales, respectively, are suggested for dealing with the uncertainties when assessing flood risks throughout a system's possible evolution. The (initially top-down developed) approach and its components will be briefly presented. These "scenario products" could later serve as a stimulus for discussions that bring together different actors and enhance - and eventually legitimise - the scenarios further in a "scenario process": (1) A first step is the conceptualisation of a flood risk system following the SPRC-model. Its physical geographical and anthropogenic factors may either be subject to autonomous trends, target-oriented control, or facultative system behaviour (e.g. dike breaches). With this concept, the integration of different processes and scales is aspired. (2) Secondly, it is conceptually shown how the risk cascade for present and future states of the flood risk system can be calculated based on coupled models ranging from climate change projections to a damage simulation models. (3) Thirdly, ways to develop socioeconomic storylines for the development frameworks and guiding principles for the strategic alternatives are presented and the futures are combined. This involves making plausible and consistent assumptions for many system factors and their drivers and finding ways to harmonise existing data for the same areas and time steps. (4) Fourthly, selected futures can be analysed and evaluated ex ante applying the coupled models of the second step to derive the emerging flood risks. The evaluation addresses, amongst other aspects, the identification of (i) the sensitivity of all scenarios against the current strategic alternative; (ii) the resulting risks when applying different strategic alternatives against one selected scenario; (iii) the efficiency (as cost-effectiveness) and robustness of one selected strategic alternative against the different scenarios; and (iv) the model uncertainty, for example caused by different climate downscaling methods. It is of growing importance to place any scenario/simulation results in a societal or even individual context and confront them with the perspectives of the people potentially affected. Only this yields a holistic picture and may lead to sustainable, comprehensible decisions. The approach is partly exemplified with research conducted in Saxony (Germany) and the Elbe River catchment in Central Europe and concentrates on river or plain floods, neglecting water quality issues.

Data quality objectives for TWRS privatization phase 1: confirm tank T is an appropriate feed source for high-level waste feed batch X

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NGUYEN, D.M.

1999-06-01

The U.S. Department of Energy-Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) has initiated Phase 1 of a two-phase privatization strategy for treatment and immobilization of high-level waste (HLW) that is currently managed by the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Project. In this strategy, DOE will purchase services from a contractor-owned and operated facility under a fixed price. The Phase 1 TWRS privatization contract requires that the Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) contractors, on behalf of DOE, deliver HLW feed in specified quantities and composition to the Privatization Contractor in a timely manner (DOE-RL 1996). Additional requirements are imposed by the interface controlmore » document (ICD) for HLW feed (PHMC 1997). In response to these requirements, the Tank Waste Remediation System Operation and Utilization Plan (TWRSO and UP) (Kirkbride et al. 1997) was prepared by the PHMC. The TWRSO and UP, as updated by the Readiness-To-Proceed (RTP) deliverable (Payne et al. 1998), establishes the baseline operating scenario for the delivery of HLW feed to the Privatization Contractor. The scenario specifies tanks from which HLW will be provided for each feed batch, the operational activities needed to prepare and deliver each batch, and the timing of these activities. The operating scenario was developed based on current knowledge of waste composition and chemistry, waste transfer methods, and operating constraints such as tank farm logistics and availability of tank space. A project master baseline schedule (PMBS) has been developed to implement the operating scenario. The PMBS also includes activities aimed at reducing programmatic risks. One of the activities, ''Confirm Tank TI is Acceptable for Feed,'' was identified to verify the basis used to develop the scenario Additional data on waste quantity, physical and chemical characteristics, and transfer properties will be needed to support this activity. This document describes the data quality objective (DQO) process undertaken to assure appropriate data will be collected to support the activity, ''Confirm Tank T is Acceptable for HLW Feed.'' The DQO process was implemented in accordance with the TWRS DQO process (Banning 1997) with some modifications to accommodate project or tank-specific requirements and constraints.« less

Design and Evaluation of a Cross-Cultural Training System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santarelli, Thomas; Stagl, Kevin C.

2011-01-01

Cross-cultural competency, and the underlying communication and affective skills required to develop such expertise, is becoming increasingly important for a wide variety of domains. To address this need, we developed a blended learning platform which combines virtual role-play with tutorials, assessment and feedback. A Middle-Eastern Curriculum (MEC) exemplar for cross-cultural training U.S. military personnel was developed to guide the refinement of an existing game-based training platform. To complement this curriculum, we developed scenario authoring tools to enable end-users to define training objectives, link performance measures and feedback/remediation to these objectives, and deploy experiential scenarios within a game-based virtual environment (VE). Lessons learned from the design and development of this exemplar cross-cultural competency curriculum, as well as formative evaluation results, are discussed. Initial findings suggest that the underlying training technology promotes deep levels of semantic processing of the key information of relevant cultural and communication skills.

Decision making in trauma settings: simulation to improve diagnostic skills.

PubMed

Murray, David J; Freeman, Brad D; Boulet, John R; Woodhouse, Julie; Fehr, James J; Klingensmith, Mary E

2015-06-01

In the setting of acute injury, a wrong, missed, or delayed diagnosis can impact survival. Clinicians rely on pattern recognition and heuristics to rapidly assess injuries, but an overreliance on these approaches can result in a diagnostic error. Simulation has been advocated as a method for practitioners to learn how to recognize the limitations of heuristics and develop better diagnostic skills. The objective of this study was to determine whether simulation could be used to provide teams the experiences in managing scenarios that require the use of heuristic as well as analytic diagnostic skills to effectively recognize and treat potentially life-threatening injuries. Ten scenarios were developed to assess the ability of trauma teams to provide initial care to a severely injured patient. Seven standard scenarios simulated severe injuries that once diagnosed could be effectively treated using standard Advanced Trauma Life Support algorithms. Because diagnostic error occurs more commonly in complex clinical settings, 3 complex scenarios required teams to use more advanced diagnostic skills to uncover a coexisting condition and treat the patient. Teams composed of 3 to 5 practitioners were evaluated in the performance of 7 (of 10) randomly selected scenarios (5 standard, 2 complex). Expert rates scored teams using standardized checklists and global scores. Eighty-three surgery, emergency medicine, and anesthesia residents constituted 21 teams. Expert raters were able to reliably score the scenarios. Teams accomplished fewer checklist actions and received lower global scores on the 3 analytic scenarios (73.8% [12.3%] and 5.9 [1.6], respectively) compared with the 7 heuristic scenarios (83.2% [11.7%] and 6.6 [1.3], respectively; P < 0.05 for both). Teams led by more junior residents received higher global scores on the analytic scenarios (6.4 [1.3]) than the more senior team leaders (5.3 [1.7]). This preliminary study indicates that teams led by more senior residents received higher scores when managing heuristic scenarios but were less effective when managing the scenarios that require a more analytic approach. Simulation can be used to provide teams with decision-making experiences in trauma settings and could be used to improve diagnostic skills as well as study the decision-making process.

Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

PubMed

Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

2018-05-08

Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

PubMed

Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

2013-12-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Influences of credibility of testimony and strength of statistical evidence on children’s and adolescents’ reasoning

PubMed Central

Kail, Robert V.

2013-01-01

According to dual-process models that include analytic and heuristic modes of processing, analytic processing is often expected to become more common with development. Consistent with this view, on reasoning problems, adolescents are more likely than children to select alternatives that are backed by statistical evidence. It is shown here that this pattern depends on the quality of the statistical evidence and the quality of the testimonial that is the typical alternative to statistical evidence. In Experiment 1, 9- and 13-year-olds (N = 64) were presented with scenarios in which solid statistical evidence was contrasted with casual or expert testimonial evidence. When testimony was casual, children relied on it but adolescents did not; when testimony was expert, both children and adolescents relied on it. In Experiment 2, 9- and 13-year-olds (N = 83) were presented with scenarios in which casual testimonial evidence was contrasted with weak or strong statistical evidence. When statistical evidence was weak, children and adolescents relied on both testimonial and statistical evidence; when statistical evidence was strong, most children and adolescents relied on it. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for dual-process accounts of cognitive development. PMID:23735681

An investigation into pilot and system response to critical in-flight events. Volume 1: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rockwell, T. H.; Griffin, W. C.

1981-01-01

Critical in-flight events (CIFE) that threaten the aircraft were studied. The scope of the CIFE was described and defined with emphasis on characterizing event development, detection and assessment; pilot information requirements, sources, acquisition, and interpretation, pilot response options, decision processed, and decision implementation and event outcome. Detailed scenarios were developed for use in simulators and paper and pencil testing for developing relationships between pilot performance and background information as well as for an analysis of pilot reaction decision and feedback processes. Statistical relationships among pilot characteristics and observed responses to CIFE's were developed.

A simulation framework for mapping risks in clinical processes: the case of in-patient transfers.

PubMed

Dunn, Adam G; Ong, Mei-Sing; Westbrook, Johanna I; Magrabi, Farah; Coiera, Enrico; Wobcke, Wayne

2011-05-01

To model how individual violations in routine clinical processes cumulatively contribute to the risk of adverse events in hospital using an agent-based simulation framework. An agent-based simulation was designed to model the cascade of common violations that contribute to the risk of adverse events in routine clinical processes. Clinicians and the information systems that support them were represented as a group of interacting agents using data from direct observations. The model was calibrated using data from 101 patient transfers observed in a hospital and results were validated for one of two scenarios (a misidentification scenario and an infection control scenario). Repeated simulations using the calibrated model were undertaken to create a distribution of possible process outcomes. The likelihood of end-of-chain risk is the main outcome measure, reported for each of the two scenarios. The simulations demonstrate end-of-chain risks of 8% and 24% for the misidentification and infection control scenarios, respectively. Over 95% of the simulations in both scenarios are unique, indicating that the in-patient transfer process diverges from prescribed work practices in a variety of ways. The simulation allowed us to model the risk of adverse events in a clinical process, by generating the variety of possible work subject to violations, a novel prospective risk analysis method. The in-patient transfer process has a high proportion of unique trajectories, implying that risk mitigation may benefit from focusing on reducing complexity rather than augmenting the process with further rule-based protocols.

A tool for the consensual analysis of decision-making scenarios.

PubMed

Hunt, Geoffrey; Merzeder, Christine; Bischofberger, Iren

2018-05-01

The authors believe there is a need for novel ways of enhancing professional judgment and discretion in the contemporary healthcare environment. The objective is to provide a framework to guide a discursive analysis of an ongoing clinical scenario by a small group of healthcare professionals (4-12) to achieve consensual understanding in the decision-making necessary to resolve specific healthcare inadequacies and promote organisational learning. REPVAD is an acronym for the framework's five decision-making dimensions of reasoning, evidence, procedures, values, attitudes and defences. The design is set out in terms of well-defined definitions of the dimensions, a rationale for using REPVAD, and explications of dimensions one at a time. Furthermore, the REPVAD process of application to a scenario is set out, and a didactic scenario is given to show how REPVAD works together with a sample case. A discussion is fleshed out in four real life student cases, and a conclusion indicates strengths and weaknesses and the possibility of further development and transferability. In terms of findings, the model has been tried, tested and refined over a number of years in the development of advanced practitioners at university healthcare faculties in two European countries. Consent was obtained from the four participating students.

Future Scenario Development from Disruptive Exploration Technologies and Business Models in the U.S. Geothermal Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wall, Anna

With recent trends toward intermittent renewable energy sources in the U.S., the geothermal industry in its current form faces a crossroad: adapt, disrupt, or be left behind. Strategic planning with scenario analysis offers a framework to characterize plausible views of the future given current trends - as well as disruptions to the status quo. To inform strategic planning in the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technology Office (GTO), the Geothermal Vision Study is tasked with offering data-driven pathways for future geothermal development. Scenario analysis is a commonly used tool in private industry corporate strategic planning as a way to prioritizemore » and manage large investments in light of uncertainty and risk. Since much of the uncertainty and risk in a geothermal project is believed to occur within early stage exploration and drilling, this paper focuses on the levers (technical and financial) within the exploration process that can be pulled to affect change. Given these potential changes, this work first qualitatively explores potential shifts to the geothermal industry. Future work within the Geothermal Vision Study will incorporate these qualitative scenarios quantitatively, in competition with other renewable and conventional energy industries.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barr, G.E.; Borns, D.J.; Fridrich, C.

A comprehensive collection of scenarios is presented that connect initiating tectonic events with radionuclide releases by logical and physically possible combinations or sequences of features, events and processes. The initiating tectonic events include both discrete faulting and distributed rock deformation developed through the repository and adjacent to it, as well as earthquake-induced ground motion and changes in tectonic stress at the site. The effects of these tectonic events include impacts on the engineered-barrier system, such as container rupture and failure of repository tunnels. These effects also include a wide range of hydrologic effects such as changes in pathways and flowmore » rates in the unsaturated and saturated zones, changes in the water-table configuration, and in the development of perched-water systems. These scenarios are intended go guide performance-assessment analyses and to assist principal investigators in how essential field, laboratory, and calculational studies are used. This suite of scenarios will help ensure that all important aspects of the system disturbance related to a tectonic scenario are captured in numerical analyses. It also provides a record of all options considered by project analysts to provide documentation required for licensing agreement. The final portion of this report discusses issues remaining to be addressed with respect to tectonic activity. 105 refs.« less

Extracting recurrent scenarios from narrative texts using a Bayesian network: application to serious occupational accidents with movement disturbance.

PubMed

Abdat, F; Leclercq, S; Cuny, X; Tissot, C

2014-09-01

A probabilistic approach has been developed to extract recurrent serious Occupational Accident with Movement Disturbance (OAMD) scenarios from narrative texts within a prevention framework. Relevant data extracted from 143 accounts was initially coded as logical combinations of generic accident factors. A Bayesian Network (BN)-based model was then built for OAMDs using these data and expert knowledge. A data clustering process was subsequently performed to group the OAMDs into similar classes from generic factor occurrence and pattern standpoints. Finally, the Most Probable Explanation (MPE) was evaluated and identified as the associated recurrent scenario for each class. Using this approach, 8 scenarios were extracted to describe 143 OAMDs in the construction and metallurgy sectors. Their recurrent nature is discussed. Probable generic factor combinations provide a fair representation of particularly serious OAMDs, as described in narrative texts. This work represents a real contribution to raising company awareness of the variety of circumstances, in which these accidents occur, to progressing in the prevention of such accidents and to developing an analysis framework dedicated to this kind of accident. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wooden Spaceships: Human-Centered Vehicle Design for Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Twyford, Evan

2009-01-01

Presentation will focus on creative human centered design solutions in relation to manned space vehicle design and development in the NASA culture. We will talk about design process, iterative prototyping, mockup building and user testing and evaluation. We will take an inside look at how new space vehicle concepts are developed and designed for real life exploration scenarios.

First-Year Students' Impressions of Pair Programming in CS1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simon, Beth; Hanks, Brian

2008-01-01

Pair programming, as part of the Agile Development process, has noted benefits in professional software development scenarios. These successes have led to a rise in use of pair programming in educational settings, particularly in Computer Science 1 (CS1). Specifically, McDowell et al. [2006] has shown that students using pair programming in CS1 do…

Case study: Lockheed-Georgia Company integrated design process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waldrop, C. T.

1980-01-01

A case study of the development of an Integrated Design Process is presented. The approach taken in preparing for the development of an integrated design process includes some of the IPAD approaches such as developing a Design Process Model, cataloging Technical Program Elements (TPE's), and examining data characteristics and interfaces between contiguous TPE's. The implementation plan is based on an incremental development of capabilities over a period of time with each step directed toward, and consistent with, the final architecture of a total integrated system. Because of time schedules and different computer hardware, this system will not be the same as the final IPAD release; however, many IPAD concepts will no doubt prove applicable as the best approach. Full advantage will be taken of the IPAD development experience. A scenario that could be typical for many companies, even outside the aerospace industry, in developing an integrated design process for an IPAD-type environment is represented.

High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolae Lerma, Alexandre; Bulteau, Thomas; Elineau, Sylvain; Paris, François; Durand, Paul; Anselme, Brice; Pedreros, Rodrigo

2018-01-01

A modelling chain was implemented in order to propose a realistic appraisal of the risk in coastal areas affected by overflowing as well as overtopping processes. Simulations are performed through a nested downscaling strategy from regional to local scale at high spatial resolution with explicit buildings, urban structures such as sea front walls and hydraulic structures liable to affect the propagation of water in urban areas. Validation of the model performance is based on hard and soft available data analysis and conversion of qualitative to quantitative information to reconstruct the area affected by flooding and the succession of events during two recent storms. Two joint probability approaches (joint exceedance contour and environmental contour) are used to define 100-year offshore conditions scenarios and to investigate the flood response to each scenario in terms of (1) maximum spatial extent of flooded areas, (2) volumes of water propagation inland and (3) water level in flooded areas. Scenarios of sea level rise are also considered in order to evaluate the potential hazard evolution. Our simulations show that for a maximising 100-year hazard scenario, for the municipality as a whole, 38 % of the affected zones are prone to overflow flooding and 62 % to flooding by propagation of overtopping water volume along the seafront. Results also reveal that for the two kinds of statistic scenarios a difference of about 5 % in the forcing conditions (water level, wave height and period) can produce significant differences in terms of flooding like +13.5 % of water volumes propagating inland or +11.3 % of affected surfaces. In some areas, flood response appears to be very sensitive to the chosen scenario with differences of 0.3 to 0.5 m in water level. The developed approach enables one to frame the 100-year hazard and to characterize spatially the robustness or the uncertainty over the results. Considering a 100-year scenario with mean sea level rise (0.6 m), hazard characteristics are dramatically changed with an evolution of the overtopping / overflowing process ratio and an increase of a factor 4.84 in volumes of water propagating inland and 3.47 in flooded surfaces.

Development of energy consumption and energy efficiency potential in the Brazilian industrial sector according to the Integrated Energy Planning Model (IEPM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tolmasquim, M.T.; Szklo, A.S.; Cohen, C.

This paper presents the development of energy consumption in the Brazilian industrial sector and energy efficiency potential based on the analysis undertaken through a model developed in the Energy Planning Program at COPPE/UFRJ, known as the Integrated Energy Planning Model (IEPM). The study starts by presenting the IEPM, which is a technical and economic parameter-based model designed to forecast energy supplies and consumption for all economic sectors in Brazil, within three scenarios. Outlines of all three scenarios are presented, as they were constructed according to certain specific assumptions. The industrial sector was broken down into eleven sub-sectors: food and beverages,more » ceramics, cement, iron and steel, mining and pelletizing, ferroalloys, non-ferrous metals and others (metallurgy), chemicals, pulp and paper, textiles and other industries (MME, 1998). All these sub-sectors will also be presented as well as the results of the scenario forecasts. Results deriving from these forecasts come from very specific studies that analyze all process steps in each sub-sector in order to propose energy replacements, efficiency improvements of structural production alterations that result in major potential energy consumption reductions. Last but not least, this paper gives the development forecasts deriving from the three scenarios over ten years, with their contributions to energy efficiency in the Brazilian industrial sector, showing that the authors can reduce energy consumption in the Brazilian industrial sector by: substituting less efficient processes by more efficient ones, through the conversion of final energy into usable energy, basically, in the cement and aluminum industries; replacing equipment and energy sources; modifying product mix of several industries (pulp and paper), assigning top priority to producing goods with higher added value that are less energy intensive, and, finally, reducing the share held by some energy intensive sectors in the industrial output.« less

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning.

PubMed

Mörtberg, U M; Balfors, B; Knol, W C

2007-03-01

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.

Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Jonas; Binkowski, Eva; Bronsart, Robert

2014-06-01

In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS) is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC) the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel's calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

Catalysis for biomass and CO2 use through solar energy: opening new scenarios for a sustainable and low-carbon chemical production.

PubMed

Lanzafame, Paola; Centi, Gabriele; Perathoner, Siglinda

2014-11-21

The use of biomass, bio-waste and CO2 derived raw materials, the latter synthesized using H2 produced using renewable energy sources, opens new scenarios to develop a sustainable and low carbon chemical production, particularly in regions such as Europe lacking in other resources. This tutorial review discusses first this new scenario with the aim to point out, between the different possible options, those more relevant to enable this new future scenario for the chemical production, commenting in particular the different drivers (economic, technological and strategic, environmental and sustainability and socio-political) which guide the selection. The case of the use of non-fossil fuel based raw materials for the sustainable production of light olefins is discussed in more detail, but the production of other olefins and polyolefins, of drop-in intermediates and other platform molecules are also analysed. The final part discusses the role of catalysis in establishing this new scenario, summarizing the development of catalysts with respect to industrial targets, for (i) the production of light olefins by catalytic dehydration of ethanol and by CO2 conversion via FTO process, (ii) the catalytic synthesis of butadiene from ethanol, butanol and butanediols, and (iii) the catalytic synthesis of HMF and its conversion to 2,5-FDCA, adipic acid, caprolactam and 1,6-hexanediol.

Process simulation and cost analysis for removing inorganics from wood chips using combined mechanical and chemical preprocessing

DOE PAGES

Hu, Hongqiang; Westover, Tyler L.; Cherry, Robert; ...

2016-10-03

Inorganic species (ash) in biomass feedstocks negatively impact thermochemical and biochemical energy conversion processes. In this work, a process simulation model is developed to model the reduction in ash content of loblolly logging residues using a combination of air classification and dilute-acid leaching. Various scenarios are considered, and it is found that costs associated with discarding high-ash material from air classification are substantial. The costs of material loss can be reduced by chemical leaching the high-ash fraction obtained from air classification. The optimal leaching condition is found to be approximately 0.1 wt% sulfuric acid at 24°C. In example scenarios, totalmore » process costs in the range of $10-12/dry tonnes of product are projected that result in a removal of 11, 66, 53 and 86% of organics, total ash (inorganics), alkaline earth metals and phosphorus (AAEMS+P), and silicon, respectively. Here, sensitivity analyses indicate that costs associated with loss of organic material during processing (yield losses), brine disposal, and labor have the greatest potential to impact the total processing cost.« less

CreativeDrought: An interdisciplinary approach to building resilience to drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne; Rohse, Melanie; Day, Rosie; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Makaya, Eugine

2017-04-01

Drought events cause severe water and food insecurities in many developing countries where resilience to natural hazards and change is low due to a number of reasons (including poverty, social and political inequality, and limited access to information). Furthermore, with climate change and increasing pressures from population and societal change, populations are expected to experience future droughts outside of their historic range. Integrated water resources management is an established tool combining natural science, engineering and management to help address drought and associated impacts. However, it often lacks a strong social and cultural aspect, leading to poor implementation on the ground. For a more holistic approach to building resilience to future drought, a stronger interdisciplinary approach is required which can incorporate the local cultural context and perspectives into drought and water management, and communicate information effectively to communities. In this pilot project 'CreativeDrought', we use a novel interdisciplinary approach aimed at building resilience to future drought in rural Africa by combining hydrological modelling with rich local information and engaging communicative approaches from social sciences. The work is conducted through a series of steps in which we i) engage with local rural communities to collect narratives on drought experiences; ii) generate hydrological modelling scenarios based on IPCC projections, existing data and the collected narratives; iii) feed these back to the local community to gather their responses to these scenarios; iv) iteratively adapt them to obtain hypothetical future drought scenarios; v) engage the community with the scenarios to formulate new future drought narratives; and vi) use this new data to enhance local water resource management. Here we present some of the indigenous knowledge gathered through narratives and the hydrological modelling scenarios for a rural community in Southern Africa. We use this local knowledge to develop the hypothetical future scenarios with a hydrological model (SHETRAN), with an iterative process to build trust in the tool. Through workshops, the communities can then use their own experiences, the modelling scenarios and climate analogies to experiment with stories about future drought events and possible effective ways of responding to them. This interdisciplinary approach allows the local community to extrapolate their narrated, experienced droughts from outside their historic range and into their projected range. These workshops will find innovative and effective ways to communicate science and information to the rural population. In this co-creation process of using creative experimentation based on narratives and scenario hydrological modelling, we develop new ways of adapting to drought and building resilience. This approach to increasing resilience is regarded as robust because it uses scientific methods, but is also culturally embedded and bottom-up.

Collection and Processing of Data from Wrist Wearable Devices in Heterogeneous and Multiple-User Scenarios.

PubMed

de Arriba-Pérez, Francisco; Caeiro-Rodríguez, Manuel; Santos-Gago, Juan M

2016-09-21

Over recent years, we have witnessed the development of mobile and wearable technologies to collect data from human vital signs and activities. Nowadays, wrist wearables including sensors (e.g., heart rate, accelerometer, pedometer) that provide valuable data are common in market. We are working on the analytic exploitation of this kind of data towards the support of learners and teachers in educational contexts. More precisely, sleep and stress indicators are defined to assist teachers and learners on the regulation of their activities. During this development, we have identified interoperability challenges related to the collection and processing of data from wearable devices. Different vendors adopt specific approaches about the way data can be collected from wearables into third-party systems. This hinders such developments as the one that we are carrying out. This paper contributes to identifying key interoperability issues in this kind of scenario and proposes guidelines to solve them. Taking into account these topics, this work is situated in the context of the standardization activities being carried out in the Internet of Things and Machine to Machine domains.

Collection and Processing of Data from Wrist Wearable Devices in Heterogeneous and Multiple-User Scenarios

PubMed Central

de Arriba-Pérez, Francisco; Caeiro-Rodríguez, Manuel; Santos-Gago, Juan M.

2016-01-01

Over recent years, we have witnessed the development of mobile and wearable technologies to collect data from human vital signs and activities. Nowadays, wrist wearables including sensors (e.g., heart rate, accelerometer, pedometer) that provide valuable data are common in market. We are working on the analytic exploitation of this kind of data towards the support of learners and teachers in educational contexts. More precisely, sleep and stress indicators are defined to assist teachers and learners on the regulation of their activities. During this development, we have identified interoperability challenges related to the collection and processing of data from wearable devices. Different vendors adopt specific approaches about the way data can be collected from wearables into third-party systems. This hinders such developments as the one that we are carrying out. This paper contributes to identifying key interoperability issues in this kind of scenario and proposes guidelines to solve them. Taking into account these topics, this work is situated in the context of the standardization activities being carried out in the Internet of Things and Machine to Machine domains. PMID:27657081

Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Control Technology Options within the Energy, Water and Food Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Ansari, Tareq; Korre, Anna; Nie, Zhenggang; Shah, Nilay

2015-04-01

The utilisation of Energy, Water and Food (EWF) resources can be described as a nexus of complex linkages embodied in industrial and natural processes. Food production is one such example of a system that mobilises EWF resources to deliver a product which is highly influenced by the efficiency of the industrial processes contributing to it and the conditions of the surrounding natural environment. Aggregating the utilisation of EWF resources into interconnected sub-systems is necessary for the accurate representation of the system's dynamics in terms of its material flow and resource consumption. The methodology used in this study is an extension of previous work developed regarding nexus analysis (Al-Ansari et al. 2014a, Al-Ansari et al. 2014b). Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to prepare detailed models of the sub-system components, determine the linkages between the different nexus constituents and evaluate impacts on the natural environment. The nexus system is comprised of water sub-systems represented by a reverse osmosis (RO) desalination process. Energy sub-systems for power generation include models for a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and solar Photovoltaics (PV) energy generation, as well as an amine based CO2 capture process enabling the utilisation of CO2 for the artificial fertilization of crops. The agricultural sub-systems include the production and application of fertilizers and the raising of livestock. A biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC) for power generation using waste manure from the livestock sub-system is also included. The objective of this study is to consider a conventional food system in Qatar and enhance its environmental performance by using a nexus approach to examine different scenarios and operating modes. For the Qatar case study, three scenarios and four modes of operation were developed as part of the analysis. The baseline scenario uses fossil fuel to power the entire EWF nexus system using CCGT, the second scenario integrates PV to power the RO units and the third scenario uses solar PV to power the RO and fertilizer production facilities. The second operating mode integrates the BIGCC for power generation and the third mode utilises the gasification by-product biochar for the enhancement of agricultural productivity in addition to the power generated from the BIGCC. The final mode of operation examines the use of CO2 capture technology in the baseline scenario to support fertilization resulting in productivity increases for crops. References: Al-Ansari, T., Korre, A., Nie, Z., Shah, N., "Development of a life cycle assessment model for the analysis of the energy, water and food nexus" Computer Aided Chemical Engineering, 33, (2014), 1039-1044. Al-Ansari, T., Korre, A., Nie, Z., Shah, N., Integrated Modelling of the Energy, Water and Food Nexus to Enhance the Environmental Performance of Food Production Systems, 9th International Conference LCA of Food, San Francisco, USA, 8 - 10 October 2014

Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report Rev. 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Peter P.; Wagner, Katie A.

This project Hazard and Risk Analysis Report contains the results of several hazard analyses and risk assessments. An initial assessment was conducted in 2012, which included a multi-step approach ranging from design reviews to a formal What-If hazard analysis. A second What-If hazard analysis was completed during February 2013 to evaluate the operation of the hydrotreater/distillation column processes to be installed in a process enclosure within the Process Development Laboratory West (PDL-West) facility located on the PNNL campus. The qualitative analysis included participation of project and operations personnel and applicable subject matter experts. The analysis identified potential hazardous scenarios, eachmore » based on an initiating event coupled with a postulated upset condition. The unmitigated consequences of each hazardous scenario were generally characterized as a process upset; the exposure of personnel to steam, vapors or hazardous material; a spray or spill of hazardous material; the creation of a flammable atmosphere; or an energetic release from a pressure boundary.« less

Assessment of vulnerability to future marine processes of urbanized coastal environments by a GIS-based approach: expected scenario in the metropolitan area of Bari (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mancini, F.; Ceppi, C.; Christopulos, V.

2013-12-01

Literature concerning the risk assessment procedures after extreme meteorological events is generally focused on the establishing of relationship between actual severe weather conditions and impact detected over the involved zones. Such an events are classified on the basis of measurements and observation able to assess the magnitude of phenomena or on the basis of related effects on the affected area, the latter being deeply connected with the overall physical vulnerability. However such assessment almost never do consider scenario about expected extreme event and possible pattern of urbanization at the time of impact and nor the spatial and temporal uncertainty of phenomena are taken into account. The drawn of future scenario about coastal vulnerability to marine processes is therefore difficult. This work focuses the study case of the Metropoli Terra di Bari (metropolitan area of Bari, Apulia, Italy) where a coastal vulnerability analysis due to climate changes expected on the basis of expert opinions coming from the scientific community was carried out. Several possible impacts on the coastal environments were considered, in particular sea level rise inundation, flooding due to storm surge and coastal erosion. For such a purpose the methodology base on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was adopted after a regionalization procedure as carried out by Verburgh and others (2006) at the European scale. The open source software SLEUTH, base on the cellular automate principle, was used and the reliability of obtained scenario verified through the Monte Carlo method. Once these scenario were produced, a GIS-based multicriteria methodology was implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the urbanized coastal area of interest. Several vulnerability maps related are therefore available for different scenario able to consider the degree of hazards and potential development of the typology and extent of urban settlements. The vulnerability assessments under different scenario could represent a suitable tool in the designing of risk mitigation strategies under uncertain scenario of hazard.

Dynamic image fusion and general observer preference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burks, Stephen D.; Doe, Joshua M.

2010-04-01

Recent developments in image fusion give the user community many options for ways of presenting the imagery to an end-user. Individuals at the US Army RDECOM CERDEC Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate have developed an electronic system that allows users to quickly and efficiently determine optimal image fusion algorithms and color parameters based upon collected imagery and videos from environments that are typical to observers in a military environment. After performing multiple multi-band data collections in a variety of military-like scenarios, different waveband, fusion algorithm, image post-processing, and color choices are presented to observers as an output of the fusion system. The observer preferences can give guidelines as to how specific scenarios should affect the presentation of fused imagery.

Modeling Urban Energy Savings Scenarios Using Earth System Microclimate and Urban Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Rose, A.; New, J. R.; Yuan, J.; Omitaomu, O.; Sylvester, L.; Branstetter, M. L.; Carvalhaes, T. M.; Seals, M.; Berres, A.

2017-12-01

We analyze and quantify the relationships among climatic conditions, urban morphology, population, land cover, and energy use so that these relationships can be used to inform energy-efficient urban development and planning. We integrate different approaches across three research areas: earth system modeling; impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and urban planning in order to address three major gaps in the existing capability in these areas: i) neighborhood resolution modeling and simulation of urban micrometeorological processes and their effect on and from regional climate; ii) projections for future energy use under urbanization and climate change scenarios identifying best strategies for urban morphological development and energy savings; iii) analysis and visualization tools to help planners optimally use these projections.

Optimisation of Critical Infrastructure Protection: The SiVe Project on Airport Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breiing, Marcus; Cole, Mara; D'Avanzo, John; Geiger, Gebhard; Goldner, Sascha; Kuhlmann, Andreas; Lorenz, Claudia; Papproth, Alf; Petzel, Erhard; Schwetje, Oliver

This paper outlines the scientific goals, ongoing work and first results of the SiVe research project on critical infrastructure security. The methodology is generic while pilot studies are chosen from airport security. The outline proceeds in three major steps, (1) building a threat scenario, (2) development of simulation models as scenario refinements, and (3) assessment of alternatives. Advanced techniques of systems analysis and simulation are employed to model relevant airport structures and processes as well as offences. Computer experiments are carried out to compare and optimise alternative solutions. The optimality analyses draw on approaches to quantitative risk assessment recently developed in the operational sciences. To exploit the advantages of the various techniques, an integrated simulation workbench is build up in the project.

Assessment of the visual landscape impact and dominance of wind tubines in Austria using weighted viewshed maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schauppenlehner, Thomas; Salak, Boris; Scherhaufer, Patrick; Höltinger, Stefan; Schmidt, Johannes

2017-04-01

Due to efficiency reasons and broadly availability of wind, wind energy is in focus of strategies regarding the expansion of renewable energy and energy transition policies. Nevertheless, the dimensions of the wind turbines and rotating dynamics have a significant impact on the landscape scenery and recreation as well as tourism activities. This often leads to local opposition against wind energy projects and is a major criterion regarding the acceptance of wind energy. In the project TransWind, the social acceptance of wind energy is surveyed on the basis of different development scenarios for Austria. Therefore, a GIS-based viewshed indicator was developed to assess the visual impact of different development scenarios as well as the current situation using weighted - regarding distance, amount and masking - viewshed analysis. This weighted viewshed maps for Austria allows a comprehensive evaluation of existing and potential wind energy sites regarding dominance and visual impact and can contribute to the spatial development process of wind energy site. Different regions can be compared and repowering strategies can be evaluated. Due to the large project area, data resolutions, generalized assumptions (e.g. tree heights) and missing data (e.g. solitary trees, small hedges) at local level further analysis are necessary but it supports the assessment of large-scale development scenarios can be identified.

Development of a Flexible Framework of Common Hypersonic Navier-Strokes Meshes for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alter, Stephen J.; Reuthler, James J.; McDaniel, Ryan D.

2003-01-01

A flexible framework for the development of block structured volume grids for hypersonic Navier-Stokes flow simulations was developed for analysis of the Shuttle Orbiter Columbia. The development of the flexible framework, resulted in an ability to quickly generate meshes to directly correlate solutions contributed by participating groups on a common surface mesh, providing confidence for the extension of the envelope of solutions and damage scenarios. The framework draws on the experience of NASA Langely and NASA Ames Research Centers in structured grid generation, and consists of a grid generation process that is implemented through a division of responsibilities. The nominal division of labor consisted of NASA Johnson Space Center coordinating the damage scenarios to be analyzed by the Aerothermodynamics Columbia Accident Investigation (CAI) team, Ames developing the surface grids that described the computational volume about the orbiter, and Langely improving grid quality of Ames generated data and constructing the final volume grids. Distributing the work among the participants in the Aerothermodynamic CIA team resulted in significantly less time required to construct complete meshes than possible by any individual participant. The approach demonstrated that the One-NASA grid generation team could sustain the demand for new meshes to explore new damage scenarios within a aggressive timeline.

A risk explicit interval linear programming model for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization in the Lake Fuxian watershed, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoling; Huang, Kai; Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

2013-01-01

The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of "low risk and high return efficiency" in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management.

A Risk Explicit Interval Linear Programming Model for Uncertainty-Based Environmental Economic Optimization in the Lake Fuxian Watershed, China

PubMed Central

Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

2013-01-01

The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of “low risk and high return efficiency” in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management. PMID:24191144

Defining a quantitative framework for evaluation and optimisation of the environmental impacts of mega-event projects.

PubMed

Parkes, Olga; Lettieri, Paola; Bogle, I David L

2016-02-01

This paper presents a novel quantitative methodology for the evaluation and optimisation of the environmental impacts of the whole life cycle of a mega-event project: construction and staging the event and post-event site redevelopment and operation. Within the proposed framework, a mathematical model has been developed that takes into account greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from use of transportation fuel, energy, water and construction materials used at all stages of the mega-event project. The model is applied to a case study - the London Olympic Park. Three potential post-event site design scenarios of the Park have been developed: Business as Usual (BAU), Commercial World (CW) and High Rise High Density (HRHD). A quantitative summary of results demonstrates that the highest GHG emissions associated with the actual event are almost negligible compared to those associated with the legacy phase. The highest share of emissions in the legacy phase is attributed to embodied emissions from construction materials (almost 50% for the BAU and HRHD scenarios) and emissions resulting from the transportation of residents, visitors and employees to/from the site (almost 60% for the CW scenario). The BAU scenario is the one with the lowest GHG emissions compared to the other scenarios. The results also demonstrate how post-event site design scenarios can be optimised to minimise the GHG emissions. The overall outcomes illustrate how the proposed framework can be used to support decision making process for mega-event projects planning. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

How Do Land-Use and Climate Change Affect Watershed Health? A Scenario-Based Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

With the growing emphasis on biofuel crops and potential impacts of climate variability and change, there is a need to quantify their effects on hydrological processes for developing watershed management plans. Environmental consequences are currently estimated by utilizing comp...

Culturally Relevant Management Education: Insights from Experience in Nunavut

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wihak, Christine

2005-01-01

The author's experience with a Nunavut business management education program illustrates how to develop culturally relevant organizational behavior curriculum. The process initially involved interviews with Inuit Elders about culturally appropriate responses to scenarios of cultural conflicts in the workplace identified by Inuit managers. The…

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

2014-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

An avionics scenario and command model description for Space Generic Open Avionics Architecture (SGOAA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stovall, John R.; Wray, Richard B.

1994-01-01

This paper presents a description of a model for a space vehicle operational scenario and the commands for avionics. This model will be used in developing a dynamic architecture simulation model using the Statemate CASE tool for validation of the Space Generic Open Avionics Architecture (SGOAA). The SGOAA has been proposed as an avionics architecture standard to NASA through its Strategic Avionics Technology Working Group (SATWG) and has been accepted by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) for conversion into an SAE Avionics Standard. This architecture was developed for the Flight Data Systems Division (FDSD) of the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) by the Lockheed Engineering and Sciences Company (LESC), Houston, Texas. This SGOAA includes a generic system architecture for the entities in spacecraft avionics, a generic processing external and internal hardware architecture, and a nine class model of interfaces. The SGOAA is both scalable and recursive and can be applied to any hierarchical level of hardware/software processing systems.

Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuldna, Piret, E-mail: piret.kuldna@seit.ee; Peterson, Kaja; Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the nationalmore » energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.« less

Scientific governance and the process for exposure scenario development in REACH.

PubMed

Money, Chris D; Van Hemmen, Joop J; Vermeire, Theo G

2007-12-01

The primary process established by the European Commission to address the science needed to define key REACH concepts and to help rationally implement REACH's ambitions is enshrined in a series of activities known as the REACH Implementation Projects (RIPs). These are projects that aim to define the methodology that could be used, and present the basis for guidance on the actual principles and procedures that may be (are proposed to be) followed in the development of the required documentation that ensures the safe use of chemicals. In order to develop soundly based and equitable regulation, it is necessary that science governance using established and accepted scientific principles must take a leading role. The extent to which such governance is embraced will be determined by many factors, but notably the process adopted to enable scientific discussion to take place. This article addresses the issues of science as they have impacted on the exemplification of the Exposure Scenario concept under REACH. The current RIP activities have created a non-adversarial process in which the key stakeholders are able to discuss the key REACH challenges. But the RIP activities will be finalised before REACH comes into force. A suitable mechanism should perhaps now be identified to ensure that this positive spirit of scientific discussion and collaboration can continue to benefit REACH and those that it serves well into the future.

PEP Support Laboratory Leaching and Permeate Stability Tests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russell, Renee L.; Peterson, Reid A.; Rinehart, Donald E.

2009-09-25

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been tasked by Bechtel National Inc. (BNI) on the River Protection Project-Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (RPP-WTP) project to perform research and development activities to resolve technical issues identified for the Pretreatment Facility (PTF). The Pretreatment Engineering Platform (PEP) was designed, constructed, and operated as part of a plan to respond to issue M12, "Undemonstrated Leaching Processes," of the External Flowsheet Review Team (EFRT) issue response plan.( ) The PEP is a 1/4.5-scale test platform designed to simulate the WTP pretreatment caustic leaching, oxidative leaching, ultrafiltration solids concentration, and slurry washing processes.more » The PEP replicates the WTP leaching processes using prototypic equipment and control strategies. A simplified flow diagram of the PEP system is shown in Figure 1.1. Two operating scenarios are currently being evaluated for the ultrafiltration process (UFP) and leaching operations. The first scenario has caustic leaching performed in the UFP-2 ultrafiltration feed vessels (i.e., vessel UFP-VSL-T02A in the PEP and vessels UFP-VSL-00002A and B in the WTP PTF). The second scenario has caustic leaching conducted in the UFP-1 ultrafiltration feed preparation vessels (i.e., vessels UFP-VSL-T01A and B in the PEP and vessels UFP-VSL-00001A and B in the WTP PTF). In both scenarios, 19-M sodium hydroxide solution (NaOH, caustic) is added to the waste slurry in the vessels to leach solid aluminum compounds (e.g., gibbsite, boehmite). Caustic addition is followed by a heating step that uses direct injection of steam to accelerate the leach process. Following the caustic leach, the vessel contents are cooled using vessel cooling jackets and/or external heat exchangers. The main difference between the two scenarios is that for leaching in UFP-VSL-T01A and B, the 19-M NaOH is added to un-concentrated waste slurry (3 to 8 wt% solids), while for leaching in UFP-VSL-T02A, the slurry is concentrated to nominally 20 wt% solids using cross-flow ultrafiltration before adding caustic.« less

Crossing the Barriers: An Analysis of Land Access Barriers to Geothermal Development and Potential Improvement Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, Aaron L; Young, Katherine R

Developers have identified many non-technical barriers to geothermal power development, including access to land. Activities required for accessing land, such as environmental review and private and public leasing can take a considerable amount of time and can delay or prevent project development. This paper discusses the impacts to available geothermal resources and deployment caused by land access challenges, including tribal and cultural resources, environmentally sensitive areas, biological resources, land ownership, federal and state lease queues, and proximity to military installations. In this analysis, we identified challenges that have the potential to prevent development of identified and undiscovered hydrothermal geothermal resources.more » We found that an estimated 400 MW of identified geothermal resource potential and 4,000 MW of undiscovered geothermal resource potential were either unallowed for development or contained one or more significant barriers that could prevent development at the site. Potential improvement scenarios that could be employed to overcome these barriers include (1) providing continuous funding to the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) for processing geothermal leases and permit applications and (2) the creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures. The model results forecast that continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 80 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 124 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures coupled with continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 97 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 152 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The small impact on potential deployment in these improvement scenarios suggests that these 4,400 MW have other barriers to development in addition to land access. In other words, simply making more resources available for development does not increase deployment; however, impacts to deployment could increase when coupled with other improvements (e.g., permitting, market and/or technology improvements).« less

Is story-based blended learning a promising avenue for skin and sexual health education? Results from the PAEDIMED project.

PubMed

Apfelbacher, Christian J; Deimling, Erika; Wulfhorst, Britta; Adler, Frederic; Diepgen, Thomas L; Linder, Dennis; Blenk, Holger; Stosiek, Nikolaus; Reinmann, Gabi

2010-03-01

The PAEDIMED study group developed a learning and teaching scenario for school health education in the area of skin and sexual health in Italy, Romania and Germany, combining web-based and traditional learning ("blended learning"). A questionnaire-based needs assessment and context analysis were conducted, based on which an education scenario was designed. Particular emphasis was put on emotional and motivational aspects, using narrative components in the didactic concept. The design process occupied a central role in the project (design-based research). Evaluation was both formative and summative. Continuous feedback was obtained from relevant stakeholders. Following a prototypical implementation, the scenario was evaluated using questionnaires. The results revealed a high level of acceptance of the education scenario as well as an increase in students' knowledge concerning skin and sexual health. Evaluation also suggested that health education is highly influenced by cultural background and habits as well as diverse contextual and personal conditions.

Integrating volcanic hazard data in a systematic approach to develop volcanic hazard maps in the Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, Jan M.; Robertson, Richard E. A.

2018-04-01

We report on the process of generating the first suite of integrated volcanic hazard zonation maps for the islands of Dominica, Grenada (including Kick 'em Jenny and Ronde/Caille), Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts, Saint Lucia and St Vincent in the Lesser Antilles. We developed a systematic approach that accommodated the range in prior knowledge of the volcanoes in the region. A first-order hazard assessment for each island was used to develop one or more scenario(s) of likely future activity, for which scenario-based hazard maps were generated. For the most-likely scenario on each island we also produced a poster-sized integrated volcanic hazard zonation map, which combined the individual hazardous phenomena depicted in the scenario-based hazard maps into integrated hazard zones. We document the philosophy behind the generation of this suite of maps, and the method by which hazard information was combined to create integrated hazard zonation maps, and illustrate our approach through a case study of St. Vincent. We also outline some of the challenges we faced using this approach, and the lessons we have learned by observing how stakeholders have interacted with the maps over the past 10 years. Based on our experience, we recommend that future map makers involve stakeholders in the entire map generation process, especially when making design choices such as type of base map, use of colour and gradational boundaries, and indeed what to depict on the map. We also recommend careful consideration of how to evaluate and depict offshore hazard of island volcanoes, and recommend computer-assisted modelling of all phenomena to generate more realistic hazard footprints. Finally, although our systematic approach to integrating individual hazard data into zones generally worked well, we suggest that a better approach might be to treat the integration of hazards on a case-by-case basis to ensure the final product meets map users' needs. We hope that the documentation of our experience might be useful for other map makers to take into account when creating new or updating existing maps.

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gentile, J.H.; Harwell, M.A.; Cropper, W.; Harwell, C. C.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Davis, S.; Ogden, J.C.; Lirman, D.

2001-01-01

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability.

PubMed

Gentile, J H; Harwell, M A; Cropper, W; Harwell, C C; DeAngelis, D; Davis, S; Ogden, J C; Lirman, D

2001-07-02

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability, and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

PubMed

Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were compatible with existing policy. We found that two key stakeholder groups, agricultural and Indigenous residents, had divergent satisfaction levels with the amount of clearing and agricultural development. Based on the range of benefits and potential adverse impacts of each scenario, we suggest that the 10% clearing scenarios are most aligned with stakeholder preferences and best balance preferences across stakeholder groups. Our approach to scenario planning is applicable generally to exploring the potential conflicts between goals for conservation and development. Our case study is particularly relevant to current discussion about increased agricultural and pastoral development in northern Australia.

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values

PubMed Central

Pressey, Robert L.; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were compatible with existing policy. We found that two key stakeholder groups, agricultural and Indigenous residents, had divergent satisfaction levels with the amount of clearing and agricultural development. Based on the range of benefits and potential adverse impacts of each scenario, we suggest that the 10% clearing scenarios are most aligned with stakeholder preferences and best balance preferences across stakeholder groups. Our approach to scenario planning is applicable generally to exploring the potential conflicts between goals for conservation and development. Our case study is particularly relevant to current discussion about increased agricultural and pastoral development in northern Australia. PMID:27362347

Scenarios of stable Vapor→Liquid Droplet→Solid Nanowire growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nebol`sin, Valery A.; Dunaev, Alexander I.; Tatarenkov, Alexander F.; Shmakova, Svetlana S.

2016-09-01

In the process of Nanowire (NW) growth under the Vapor→Liquid Droplet→Solid (VLS) scheme, the stages that reach the boundary of the crystallization front (the triple phase line (TPL)) under the droplet of the catalyst are either absorbed by the TPL, or accumulate ahead of it. It has been shown that, in the first case, TPL can release stages, which leads to a decrease in supersaturation necessary for NW growth. An equation has been derived, which defines the change in free surface energy of the three-phase system in the absorption (release) of a stage, being a function of the contact angle of the droplet, and the ratio between the phase conjugation angles interface at equilibrium shift in the boundary line. A thermodynamic model has been developed and three possible scenarios for sustainable NW growth: Non-Wetting, Wetting and Fully Wetting have been considered in accordance with the processes occurring at the interface of three phases. The results obtained for each scenario were used to analyze the polytypism of GaAs and InAs NW, the radial periodic instability of Si NW and the formation of "negative" NW.

Multi-Scenario Use Case based Demonstration of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework Webtool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil G.; Mylrea, Michael E.; Gervais, Easton L.

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the cybersecurity and software capabilities of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework (BCF) webtool. The webtool is designed based on BCF document and existing NIST standards. It’s capabilities and features are depicted through a building usecase with four different investment scenarios geared towards improving the cybersecurity posture of the building. BCF webtool also facilitates implementation of the goals outlined in Presidential Executive Order (EO) on Strengthening the Cybersecurity of Federal Networks and Critical Infrastructure (May 2017. In realization of the EO goals, BCF includes five core elements: Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, and Recover, to helpmore » determine various policy and process level vulnerabilities and provide mitigation strategies. With the BCF webtool, an organization can perform a cybersecurity self-assessment; determine the current cybersecurity posture; define investment based goals to achieve a target state; connect the cybersecurity posture with business processes, functions, and continuity; and finally, develop plans to answer critical organizational cybersecurity questions. In this paper, the webtool and its core capabilities are depicted by performing an extensive comparative assessment over four different scenarios.« less

Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

2013-01-01

A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year. The difference between current conditions and measured monthly values for the two warmest months (July and August) were 0.5°C and 0.2°C, respectively. The model predicted that water temperature generally becomes less sensitive to air temperature increases as the distance from the mouth of the river decreases. As a consequence, the difference between climate warming scenarios also decreased. The pattern of decreasing sensitivity is most pronounced from August to October. Interactive graphing tools were developed to explore the relative sensitivity of average monthly and mean daily water temperature to increases in air temperature for model output locations along the lower Yakima River main stem.

The development of a novel knowledge-based weaning algorithm using pulmonary parameters: a simulation study.

PubMed

Guler, Hasan; Kilic, Ugur

2018-03-01

Weaning is important for patients and clinicians who have to determine correct weaning time so that patients do not become addicted to the ventilator. There are already some predictors developed, such as the rapid shallow breathing index (RSBI), the pressure time index (PTI), and Jabour weaning index. Many important dimensions of weaning are sometimes ignored by these predictors. This is an attempt to develop a knowledge-based weaning process via fuzzy logic that eliminates the disadvantages of the present predictors. Sixteen vital parameters listed in published literature have been used to determine the weaning decisions in the developed system. Since there are considered to be too many individual parameters in it, related parameters were grouped together to determine acid-base balance, adequate oxygenation, adequate pulmonary function, hemodynamic stability, and the psychological status of the patients. To test the performance of the developed algorithm, 20 clinical scenarios were generated using Monte Carlo simulations and the Gaussian distribution method. The developed knowledge-based algorithm and RSBI predictor were applied to the generated scenarios. Finally, a clinician evaluated each clinical scenario independently. The Student's t test was used to show the statistical differences between the developed weaning algorithm, RSBI, and the clinician's evaluation. According to the results obtained, there were no statistical differences between the proposed methods and the clinician evaluations.

The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. J.; Allsopp, T. R.

1988-07-01

In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions.There were many uncertainties involved in the climate scenario development and the impacts modeling. Time and resource constraints restricted this study to one climate scenario and to the selection of several available models that could be adapted to these impact studies. The pilot study emphasized the approach and process required to investigate potential regional impacts in an interdisciplinary manner, rather than to produce a forecast of the future.The climate scenario chosen was adapted from experimental model results produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), coupled with current climate normals. Gridded monthly mean temperatures and precipitation were then used to develop projected biophysical effects. For example, existing physical and/or statistical models were adapted to determine impacts on the Great Lakes net basin supplies, levels and outflows, streamflow subbasin, snowfall and length of snow season.The second phase of the study addressed the impacts of the climate system scenario on natural resources and resource dependent activities. For example, the impacts of projected decreased lake levels and outflows on commercial navigation and hydroelectric generation were assessed. The impacts of the climate scenario on municipal water use, residential beating and cooling energy requirements opportunities and constraints for food production and tourism and recreation were determined quantitatively where models and methodologies were available, otherwise, qualitatively.First order interdependencies of the biophysical effects of the climate scenario and resource dependent activities were evaluated qualitatively in a workshop format culminating in a series of statements on (i) possible preventive, compensatory and substitution strategies and (ii) an assessment of current knowledge gaps and deficiencies, with recommendations for future areas of research.

Incorporating scenario-based simulation into a hospital nursing education program.

PubMed

Nagle, Beth M; McHale, Jeanne M; Alexander, Gail A; French, Brian M

2009-01-01

Nurse educators are challenged to provide meaningful and effective learning opportunities for both new and experienced nurses. Simulation as a teaching and learning methodology is being embraced by nursing in academic and practice settings to provide innovative educational experiences to assess and develop clinical competency, promote teamwork, and improve care processes. This article provides an overview of the historical basis for using simulation in education, simulation methodologies, and perceived advantages and disadvantages. It also provides a description of the integration of scenario-based programs using a full-scale patient simulator into nursing education programming at a large academic medical center.

Baryogenesis in false vacuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamada, Yuta; Yamada, Masatoshi

2017-09-01

The null result in the LHC may indicate that the standard model is not drastically modified up to very high scales, such as the GUT/string scale. Having this in the mind, we suggest a novel leptogenesis scenario realized in the false vacuum of the Higgs field. If the Higgs field develops a large vacuum expectation value in the early universe, a lepton number violating process is enhanced, which we use for baryogenesis. To demonstrate the scenario, several models are discussed. For example, we show that the observed baryon asymmetry is successfully generated in the standard model with higher-dimensional operators.

Pathways of Understanding: the Interactions of Humanity and Global Environmental Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobson, Harold K.; Katzenberger, John; Lousma, Jack; Mooney, Harold A.; Moss, Richard H.; Kuhn, William; Luterbacher, Urs; Wiegandt, Ellen

1992-01-01

How humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change is explored. Recognizing the impact human activities have on the environment and responding to the need to document the interactions among human activities, the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of 12 scientists to develop a framework illustrating the key human systems that contribute to global change. This framework, called the Social Process Diagram, will help natural and social scientists, educators, resource managers and policy makers envision and analyze how human systems interact among themselves and with the natural system. The Social Process Diagram consists of the following blocks that constitute the Diagram's structural framework: (1) fund of knowledge and experience; (2) preferences and expectations; (3) factors of production and technology; (4) population and social structure; (5) economic systems; (6) political systems and institutions; and (7) global scale environmental processes. To demonstrate potential ways the Diagram can be used, this document includes 3 hypothetical scenarios of global change issues: global warming and sea level rise; the environmental impact of human population migration; and energy and the environment. These scenarios demonstrate the Diagram's usefulness for visualizing specific processes that might be studied to evaluate a particular global change issues. The scenario also shows that interesting and unanticipated questions may emerge as links are explored between categories on the Diagram.

Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1999-09-01

Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what typemore » of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and selecting projects for funding is discussed objectively. Although defined as separate sub-tasks, the EGS site review and reference scenarios are closely related. The incremental approach to EGS development that has recently been adopted could logically be expected to yield proposals for studies that lead up to and include production-enhancement experiments in producing geothermal fields in the very near future. However, the strategic plan clearly calls for the development of a more comprehensive demonstration project that can generate up to perhaps 10 MW (gross). It is anticipated that a series of small-scale experiments will define what realistically may be achieved in the near future, thus setting the stage for a successful pilot demonstration. This report continues the process of presenting information on EGS sites and experiments, and begins the process of defining what a demonstration project might be.« less

A GIS-based tool for an integrated assessment of spatial planning trade-offs with aquaculture.

PubMed

Gimpel, Antje; Stelzenmüller, Vanessa; Töpsch, Sandra; Galparsoro, Ibon; Gubbins, Matthew; Miller, David; Murillas, Arantza; Murray, Alexander G; Pınarbaşı, Kemal; Roca, Guillem; Watret, Robert

2018-06-15

The increasing demand for protein from aquaculture will trigger a global expansion of the sector in coastal and offshore waters. While contributing to food security, potential conflicts with other traditional activities such as fisheries or tourism are inevitable, thus calling for decision-support tools to assess aquaculture planning scenarios in a multi-use context. Here we introduce the AquaSpace tool, one of the first Geographic Information System (GIS)-based planning tools empowering an integrated assessment and mapping of 30 indicators reflecting economic, environmental, inter-sectorial and socio-cultural risks and opportunities for proposed aquaculture systems in a marine environment. A bottom-up process consulting more than 350 stakeholders from 10 countries across southern and northern Europe enabled the direct consideration of stakeholder needs when developing the GIS AddIn. The AquaSpace tool is an open source product and builds in the prospective use of open source datasets at a European scale, hence aiming to improve reproducibility and collaboration in aquaculture science and research. Tool outputs comprise detailed reports and graphics allowing key stakeholders such as planners or licensing authorities to evaluate and communicate alternative planning scenarios and to take more informed decisions. With the help of the German North Sea case study we demonstrate here the tool application at multiple spatial scales with different aquaculture systems and under a range of space-related development constraints. The computation of these aquaculture planning scenarios and the assessment of their trade-offs showed that it is entirely possible to identify aquaculture sites, that correspondent to multifarious potential challenges, for instance by a low conflict potential, a low risk of disease spread, a comparable high economic profit and a low impact on touristic attractions. We believe that a transparent visualisation of risks and opportunities of aquaculture planning scenarios helps an effective Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) process, supports the licensing process and simplifies investments. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring the life cycle management of industrial solid waste in the case of copper slag.

PubMed

Song, Xiaolong; Yang, Jianxin; Lu, Bin; Li, Bo

2013-06-01

Industrial solid waste has potential impacts on soil, water and air quality, as well as human health, during its whole life stages. A framework for the life cycle management of industrial solid waste, which integrates the source reduction process, is presented and applied to copper slag management. Three management scenarios of copper slag are developed: (i) production of cement after electric furnace treatment, (ii) production of cement after flotation, and (iii) source reduction before the recycling process. A life cycle assessment is carried out to estimate the environmental burdens of these three scenarios. Life cycle assessment results showed that the environmental burdens of the three scenarios are 2710.09, 2061.19 and 2145.02 Pt respectively. In consideration of the closed-loop recycling process, the environmental performance of the flotation approach excelled that of the electric furnace approach. Additionally, although flash smelting promotes the source reduction of copper slag compared with bath smelting, it did not reduce the overall environmental burdens resulting from the complete copper slag management process. Moreover, it led to the shifting of environmental burdens from ecosystem quality damage and resources depletion to human health damage. The case study shows that it is necessary to integrate the generation process into the whole life cycle of industrial solid waste, and to make an integrated assessment for quantifying the contribution of source reduction, rather than to simply follow the priority of source reduction and the hierarchy of waste management.

Hypothetical scenario exercises to improve planning and readiness for drinking water quality management during extreme weather events.

PubMed

Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Cunliffe, David; Khan, Stuart J

2017-03-15

Two hypothetical scenario exercises were designed and conducted to reflect the increasingly extreme weather-related challenges faced by water utilities as the global climate changes. The first event was based on an extreme flood scenario. The second scenario involved a combination of weather events, including a wild forest fire ('bushfire') followed by runoff due to significant rainfall. For each scenario, a panel of diverse personnel from water utilities and relevant agencies (e.g. health departments) formed a hypothetical water utility and associated regulatory body to manage water quality following the simulated extreme weather event. A larger audience participated by asking questions and contributing key insights. Participants were confronted with unanticipated developments as the simulated scenarios unfolded, introduced by a facilitator. Participants were presented with information that may have challenged their conventional experiences regarding operational procedures in order to identify limitations in current procedures, assumptions, and readily available information. The process worked toward the identification of a list of specific key lessons for each event. At the conclusion of each simulation a facilitated discussion was used to establish key lessons of value to water utilities in preparing them for similar future extreme events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New trends in transportation and land use scenario planning : five case studies of regional and local scenario planning efforts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

This report summarizes important findings from a literature review on scenario planning processes and a scan of stakeholders. It also presents case studies on innovative, next generation scenario planning efforts. The project team defined next ...

Cognitive Requirements for Small Unit Leaders in Military Operations in Urban Terrain

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-09-01

operations specifically. A cognitive task analysis , based on in depth interviews with subject matter experts (n=7), was conducted to expose the...process. The findings of the cognitive task analysis guided the development of training recommendations, particularly the need for a scenario based

Long-Term Prospects for Developments in Space (A Scenario Approach)

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-10-30

to operate and maintain the facility. Its first products were biological materials of great purity unavailable from earth-bound processes ( vaccines ...as autism , schizo- phrenia, and severe neuroses; these all came about by the year 2025 because of the computer. Within the dominant knowledge-oriented

Statistical analysis of large simulated yield datasets for studying climate effects

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ensembles of process-based crop models are now commonly used to simulate crop growth and development for climate scenarios of temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of de...

Write the Plan before You Have the Crisis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wirth, Eileen

2002-01-01

Outlines the development process and essential elements of a crisis communication strategy. Key steps include: (1) selecting a spokesperson; (2) publicizing the spokesperson's identity; (3) preparing a crisis notebook; (4) providing cell phones; (5) choosing a news conference location; (6) rehearsing crisis scenarios; and (7) obtaining interview…

Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Frid, Leonardo; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management alternatives, (5) evaluating and refining the simulation, and (6) interpreting the results. We also reflect on lessons learned and offer several recommendations for future co-production efforts, with the aim of advancing the pursuit of usable science.

Alternative scenarios of bioenergy crop production in an agricultural landscape and implications for bird communities.

PubMed

Blank, Peter J; Williams, Carol L; Sample, David W; Meehan, Timothy D; Turner, Monica G

2016-01-01

Increased demand and government mandates for bioenergy crops in the United States could require a large allocation of agricultural land to bioenergy feedstock production and substantially alter current landscape patterns. Incorporating bioenergy landscape design into land-use decision making could help maximize benefits and minimize trade-offs among alternative land uses. We developed spatially explicit landscape scenarios of increased bioenergy crop production in an 80-km radius agricultural landscape centered on a potential biomass-processing energy facility and evaluated the consequences of each scenario for bird communities. Our scenarios included conversion of existing annual row crops to perennial bioenergy grasslands and conversion of existing grasslands to annual bioenergy row crops. The scenarios explored combinations of four biomass crop types (three potential grassland crops along a gradient of plant diversity and one annual row crop [corn]), three land conversion percentages to bioenergy crops (10%, 20%, or 30% of row crops or grasslands), and three spatial configurations of biomass crop fields (random, clustered near similar field types, or centered on the processing plant), yielding 36 scenarios. For each scenario, we predicted the impact on four bird community metrics: species richness, total bird density, species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) density, and SGCN hotspots (SGCN birds/ha ≥ 2). Bird community metrics consistently increased with conversion of row crops to bioenergy grasslands and consistently decreased with conversion of grasslands to bioenergy row crops. Spatial arrangement of bioenergy fields had strong effects on the bird community and in some cases was more influential than the amount converted to bioenergy crops. Clustering grasslands had a stronger positive influence on the bird community than locating grasslands near the central plant or at random. Expansion of bioenergy grasslands onto marginal agricultural lands will likely benefit grassland bird populations, and bioenergy landscapes could be designed to maximize biodiversity benefits while meeting targets for biomass production.

Collaborative Adaptation Planning for Water Security: Preliminary Lessons, Challenges, and the Way Forward for Maipo Basin Adaptation Plan, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicuna, S.; Scott, C. A.; Bonelli, S.; Bustos, E.; Meza, F. J.

2014-12-01

The Maipo basin holds 40% of Chile's total population and almost half of the country's Gross Domestic Product. The basin is located in the semiarid central region of the country and, aside from the typical pressures of growth in developing country basins, the Maipo river faces climate change impacts associated with a reduction in total runoff and changes in its seasonality. Surface water is the main water source for human settlements and economic activities including agriculture. In 2012 we started a research project to create a climate variability and climate change adaptation plan for the basin. The pillars of the plan are co-produced by researchers and a Scenario Building Team (SBT) with membership of relevant water and land use stakeholders (including from civil society, public and private sectors) in the basin. Following similar experiences in other regions in the world that have faced the challenges of dealing with long term planning under uncertainty, the project has divided the task of developing the plan into a series of interconnected elements. A critical first component is to work on the desired vision(s) of the basin for the future. In this regards, the "water security" concept has been chosen as a framework that accommodates all objectives of the SBT members. Understanding and quantifying the uncertainties that could affect the future water security of the basin is another critical aspect of the plan. Near and long term climate scenarios are one dimension of these uncertainties that are combined with base development uncertainties such as urban growth scenarios. A third component constructs the models/tools that allows the assessment of impacts on water security that could arise under these scenarios. The final critical component relates to the development of the adaptation measures that could avoid the negative impacts and/or capture the potential opportunities. After two years in the development of the adaptation plan a series of results has been achieved in all critical components that are presented here. The success in the process now poses a series of new challenges, most importantly: how to implement and monitor the evolution of the adaptation process.

Evaluation of RPE-Select: A Web-Based Respiratory Protective Equipment Selector Tool.

PubMed

Vaughan, Nick; Rajan-Sithamparanadarajah, Bob; Atkinson, Robert

2016-08-01

This article describes the evaluation of an open-access web-based respiratory protective equipment selector tool (RPE-Select, accessible at http://www.healthyworkinglives.com/rpe-selector). This tool is based on the principles of the COSHH-Essentials (C-E) control banding (CB) tool, which was developed for the exposure risk management of hazardous chemicals in the workplace by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and general practice H&S professionals. RPE-Select can be used for identifying adequate and suitable RPE for dusts, fibres, mist (solvent, water, and oil based), sprays, volatile solids, fumes, gases, vapours, and actual or potential oxygen deficiency. It can be applied for substances and products with safety data sheets as well as for a large number of commonly encountered process-generated substances (PGS), such as poultry house dusts or welding fume. Potential international usability has been built-in by using the Hazard Statements developed for the Globally Harmonised System (GHS) and providing recommended RPE in picture form as well as with a written specification. Illustration helps to compensate for the variabilities in assigned protection factors across the world. RPE-Select uses easily understandable descriptions/explanations and an interactive stepwise flow for providing input/answers at each step. The output of the selection process is a report summarising the user input data and a selection of RPE, including types of filters where applicable, from which the user can select the appropriate one for each wearer. In addition, each report includes 'Dos' and 'Don'ts' for the recommended RPE. RPE-Select outcomes, based on up to 20 hypothetical use scenarios, were evaluated in comparison with other available RPE selection processes and tools, and by 32 independent users with a broad range of familiarities with industrial use scenarios in general and respiratory protection in particular. For scenarios involving substances having safety data sheets, 87% of RPE-Select outcomes resulted in a 'safe' RPE selection, while 98% 'safe' outcomes were achieved for scenarios involving process-generated substances. Reasons for the outliers were examined. User comments and opinions on the mechanics and usability of RPE-Select are also presented. © Crown copyright 2016.

Evaluation of RPE-Select: A Web-Based Respiratory Protective Equipment Selector Tool

PubMed Central

Vaughan, Nick; Rajan-Sithamparanadarajah, Bob; Atkinson, Robert

2016-01-01

This article describes the evaluation of an open-access web-based respiratory protective equipment selector tool (RPE-Select, accessible at http://www.healthyworkinglives.com/rpe-selector). This tool is based on the principles of the COSHH-Essentials (C-E) control banding (CB) tool, which was developed for the exposure risk management of hazardous chemicals in the workplace by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and general practice H&S professionals. RPE-Select can be used for identifying adequate and suitable RPE for dusts, fibres, mist (solvent, water, and oil based), sprays, volatile solids, fumes, gases, vapours, and actual or potential oxygen deficiency. It can be applied for substances and products with safety data sheets as well as for a large number of commonly encountered process-generated substances (PGS), such as poultry house dusts or welding fume. Potential international usability has been built-in by using the Hazard Statements developed for the Globally Harmonised System (GHS) and providing recommended RPE in picture form as well as with a written specification. Illustration helps to compensate for the variabilities in assigned protection factors across the world. RPE-Select uses easily understandable descriptions/explanations and an interactive stepwise flow for providing input/answers at each step. The output of the selection process is a report summarising the user input data and a selection of RPE, including types of filters where applicable, from which the user can select the appropriate one for each wearer. In addition, each report includes ‘Dos’ and ‘Don’ts’ for the recommended RPE. RPE-Select outcomes, based on up to 20 hypothetical use scenarios, were evaluated in comparison with other available RPE selection processes and tools, and by 32 independent users with a broad range of familiarities with industrial use scenarios in general and respiratory protection in particular. For scenarios involving substances having safety data sheets, 87% of RPE-Select outcomes resulted in a ‘safe’ RPE selection, while 98% ‘safe’ outcomes were achieved for scenarios involving process-generated substances. Reasons for the outliers were examined. User comments and opinions on the mechanics and usability of RPE-Select are also presented. PMID:27286763

A scenario framework to explore the future migration and adaptation in deltas: A multi-scale and participatory approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kebede, Abiy S.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Inaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hill, Chris T.; Hutton, Craig W.; Kay, Susan; Lawn, Jon; Lazar, Attila N.; Whitehead, Paul W.

2017-04-01

Coastal deltas are home for over 500 million people globally, and they have been identified as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments during the 21st century. They are susceptible to multiple climatic (e.g., sea-level rise, storm surges, change in temperature and precipitation) and socio-economic (e.g., human-induced subsidence, population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth) drivers of change. These drivers also operate at multiple scales, ranging from local to global and short- to long-term. This highlights the complex challenges deltas face in terms of both their long-term sustainability as well as the well-being of their residents and the health of ecosystems that support the livelihood of large (often very poor) population under uncertain changing conditions. A holistic understanding of these challenges and the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes is central for devising robust adaptation policies. Scenario analysis has long been identified as a strategic management tool to explore future climate change and its impacts for supporting robust decision-making under uncertainty. This work presents the overall scenario framework, methodology, and processes adopted for the development of scenarios in the DECCMA* project. DECCMA is analysing the future of three deltas in South Asia and West Africa: (i) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Volta delta (Ghana). This includes comparisons between these three deltas. Hence, the scenario framework comprises a multi-scale hybrid approach, with six levels of scenario considerations: (i) global (climate change, e.g., sea-level rise, temperature change; and socio-economic assumptions, e.g., population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth); (ii) regional catchments (e.g., river flow modelling), (iii) regional seas (e.g., fisheries modelling), (iv) regional politics (e.g., transboundary disputes), (v) national (e.g., socio-economic factors), and (vi) delta-scale (e.g., future adaptation and migration policies) scenarios. The framework includes and combines expert-based and participatory approaches and provides improved specification of the role of scenarios to analyse the future state of adaptation and migration across the three deltas. It facilitates the development of appropriate and consistent endogenous and exogenous scenario futures: (i) at the delta-scale, (ii) across all deltas, and (iii) with wider climate change, environmental change, and adaptation & migration research. Key words: Coastal deltas, sea-level rise, migration and adaptation, multi-scale scenarios, participatory approach *DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) project is part of the Collaborative ADAPTATION Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, M.

This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Banar, Mufide; Cokaygil, Zerrin; Ozkan, Aysun

Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was used to determine the optimum municipal solid waste (MSW) management strategy for Eskisehir city. Eskisehir is one of the developing cities of Turkey where a total of approximately 750 tons/day of waste is generated. An effective MSW management system is needed in this city since the generated MSW is dumped in an unregulated dumping site that has no liner, no biogas capture, etc. Therefore, five different scenarios were developed as alternatives to the current waste management system. Collection and transportation of waste, a material recovery facility (MRF), recycling, composting, incineration and landfilling processes weremore » considered in these scenarios. SimaPro7 libraries were used to obtain background data for the life cycle inventory. One ton of municipal solid waste of Eskisehir was selected as the functional unit. The alternative scenarios were compared through the CML 2000 method and these comparisons were carried out from the abiotic depletion, global warming, human toxicity, acidification, eutrophication and photochemical ozone depletion points of view. According to the comparisons and sensitivity analysis, composting scenario, S3, is the more environmentally preferable alternative. In this study waste management alternatives were investigated only on an environmental point of view. For that reason, it might be supported with other decision-making tools that consider the economic and social effects of solid waste management.« less

Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

2006-12-01

The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration in the southwest

Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns in Marine Renewable Energy Projects- Appendices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kramer, Sharon; Previsic, Mirko; Nelson, Peter

2010-06-17

Marine wave and tidal energy technology could interact with marine resources in ways that are not well understood. As wave and tidal energy conversion projects are planned, tested, and deployed, a wide range of stakeholders will be engaged; these include developers, state and federal regulatory agencies, environmental groups, tribal governments, recreational and commercial fishermen, and local communities. Identifying stakeholders’ environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development will help developers address and minimize potential environmental effects. Identifying important concerns will also assist with streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles by the industry inmore » the U.S. today. In September 2008, RE Vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to conduct a scenario-based evaluation of emerging hydrokinetic technologies. The purpose of this evaluation is to identify and characterize environmental impacts that are likely to occur, demonstrate a process for analyzing these impacts, identify the “key” environmental concerns for each scenario, identify areas of uncertainty, and describe studies that could address that uncertainty. This process is intended to provide an objective and transparent tool to assist in decision-making for siting and selection of technology for wave and tidal energy development. RE Vision worked with H. T. Harvey & Associates, to develop a framework for identifying key environmental concerns with marine renewable technology. This report describes the results of this study. This framework was applied to varying wave and tidal power conversion technologies, scales, and locations. The following wave and tidal energy scenarios were considered: 4 wave energy generation technologies 3 tidal energy generation technologies 3 sites: Humboldt coast, California (wave); Makapu’u Point, Oahu, Hawaii (wave); and the Tacoma Narrows, Washington (tidal) 3 project sizes: pilot, small commercial, and large commercial The possible combinations total 24 wave technology scenarios and 9 tidal technology scenarios. We evaluated 3 of the 33 scenarios in detail: 1. A small commercial OPT Power Buoy project off the Humboldt County, California coast 2. A small commercial Pelamis Wave Power P-2 project off Makapu’u Point, Oahu, Hawaii 3. A pilot MCT SeaGen tidal project, sited in the Tacoma Narrows, Washington. This framework document used information available from permitting documents that were written to support actual wave or tidal energy projects, but the results obtained here should not be confused with those of the permitting documents1. The main difference between this framework document and permitting documents of currently proposed pilot projects is that this framework identifies key environmental concerns and describes the next steps in addressing those concerns; permitting documents must identify effects, find or declare thresholds of significance, evaluate the effects against the thresholds, and find mitigation measures that will minimize or avoid the effects so they can be considered less-than-significant. Two methodologies, 1) an environmental effects analysis and 2) Raptools, were developed and tested to identify potential environmental effects associated with wave or tidal energy conversion projects. For the environmental effects analysis, we developed a framework based on standard risk assessment techniques. The framework was applied to the three scenarios listed above. The environmental effects analysis addressed questions such as: What is the temporal and spatial exposure of a species at a site? What are the specific potential project effects on that species? What measures could minimize, mitigate, or eliminate negative effects? Are there potential effects of the project, or species’ response to the effect, that are highly uncertain and warrant additional study? The second methodology, Raptools, is a collaborative approach useful for evaluating multiple characteristics of numerous siting or technology alternatives, and it allows us to graphically compare alternatives. We used Raptools to answer these questions: How do the scenarios compare, in terms of exposure, risks, and effects to the ecological and human environments? Are there sites that seem to present the fewest effects regardless of technology and scale? Which attributes account for many or much of the effects associated with wave or tidal energy development?« less

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

PubMed

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

EPA Science Inventory

Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

Influences of credibility of testimony and strength of statistical evidence on children's and adolescents' reasoning.

PubMed

Kail, Robert V

2013-11-01

According to dual-process models that include analytic and heuristic modes of processing, analytic processing is often expected to become more common with development. Consistent with this view, on reasoning problems, adolescents are more likely than children to select alternatives that are backed by statistical evidence. It is shown here that this pattern depends on the quality of the statistical evidence and the quality of the testimonial that is the typical alternative to statistical evidence. In Experiment 1, 9- and 13-year-olds (N=64) were presented with scenarios in which solid statistical evidence was contrasted with casual or expert testimonial evidence. When testimony was casual, children relied on it but adolescents did not; when testimony was expert, both children and adolescents relied on it. In Experiment 2, 9- and 13-year-olds (N=83) were presented with scenarios in which casual testimonial evidence was contrasted with weak or strong statistical evidence. When statistical evidence was weak, children and adolescents relied on both testimonial and statistical evidence; when statistical evidence was strong, most children and adolescents relied on it. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for dual-process accounts of cognitive development. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Entanglement and Coherence in Quantum State Merging.

PubMed

Streltsov, A; Chitambar, E; Rana, S; Bera, M N; Winter, A; Lewenstein, M

2016-06-17

Understanding the resource consumption in distributed scenarios is one of the main goals of quantum information theory. A prominent example for such a scenario is the task of quantum state merging, where two parties aim to merge their tripartite quantum state parts. In standard quantum state merging, entanglement is considered to be an expensive resource, while local quantum operations can be performed at no additional cost. However, recent developments show that some local operations could be more expensive than others: it is reasonable to distinguish between local incoherent operations and local operations which can create coherence. This idea leads us to the task of incoherent quantum state merging, where one of the parties has free access to local incoherent operations only. In this case the resources of the process are quantified by pairs of entanglement and coherence. Here, we develop tools for studying this process and apply them to several relevant scenarios. While quantum state merging can lead to a gain of entanglement, our results imply that no merging procedure can gain entanglement and coherence at the same time. We also provide a general lower bound on the entanglement-coherence sum and show that the bound is tight for all pure states. Our results also lead to an incoherent version of Schumacher compression: in this case the compression rate is equal to the von Neumann entropy of the diagonal elements of the corresponding quantum state.

Using in situ simulation to evaluate operational readiness of a children's hospital-based obstetrics unit.

PubMed

Ventre, Kathleen M; Barry, James S; Davis, Deborah; Baiamonte, Veronica L; Wentworth, Allen C; Pietras, Michele; Coughlin, Liza; Barley, Gwyn

2014-04-01

Relocating obstetric (OB) services to a children's hospital imposes demands on facility operations, which must be met to ensure quality care and a satisfactory patient experience. We used in situ simulations to prospectively and iteratively evaluate operational readiness of a children's hospital-based OB unit before it opened for patient care. This project took place at a 314-bed, university-affiliated children's hospital. We developed 3 full-scale simulation scenarios depicting a concurrent maternal and neonatal emergency. One scenario began with a standardized patient experiencing admission; the mannequin portrayed a mother during delivery. We ran all 3 scenarios on 2 dates scheduled several weeks apart. We ran 2 of the scenarios on a third day to verify the reliability of key processes. During the simulations, content experts completed equipment checklists, and participants identified latent safety hazards. Each simulation involved a unique combination of scheduled participants who were supplemented by providers from responding ancillary services. The simulations involved 133 scheduled participants representing OB, neonatology, and anesthesiology. We exposed and addressed operational deficiencies involving equipment availability, staffing, interprofessional communication, and systems issues such as transfusion protocol failures and electronic order entry challenges. Process changes between simulation days 1 to 3 decreased the elapsed time between transfusion protocol activation and blood arrival to the operating room and labor/delivery/recovery/postpartum setting. In situ simulations identified multiple operational deficiencies on the OB unit, allowing us to take corrective action before its opening. This project may guide other children's hospitals regarding care processes likely to require significant focus and possible modification to accommodate an OB service.

ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries.

PubMed

Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cécile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

2006-03-31

In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term "major accidents" must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called "risk matrix", crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage.

Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

2016-09-01

Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

Economic Impact Analyses of Interdisciplinary Multi-hazard Scenarios: ShakeOut and ARkStorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

2011-12-01

U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are using an interdisciplinary strategy to develop and analyze multi-hazard scenarios to help communities enhance resilience to natural hazard disasters. Two such scenarios are the southern California ShakeOut earthquake and the California ARkStorm winter storm. Both scenarios are multi-hazard: Shakeout ground motions trigger landslides and liquefaction and ARkStorm involves wind, flood, landslide, and coastal hazards. A collaborative scenario-process engages partners and stakeholders throughout the development and use of the scenarios, In doing so, community resilience is enhanced by educating communities about hazards and hazard interdependencies, building networks from scientists to decision makers, exercising emergency management strategies, identifying emergency management issues, and motivating solutions prior to an event. In addition, interdisciplinary scenarios stimulate research on the various steps of analysis (e.g., natural hazard processes, physical damages, societal consequences, and policy connections). In particular, USGS scientists have collaborated with economists to advance methods to estimate the economic impacts (business interruption losses) of disasters. Our economic impact analyses evolved from the economic module in the Federal Emergency Management Agency's loss-estimation tool, HAZUS-MH, to a more encompassing input-output analysis for ShakeOut, to a more sophisticated Computable General Equilibrium model for ARkStorm. The analyses depend on physical damage and restoration time estimates from engineers and geographic analyses of economic assets in hazard zones. Economic resilience strategies are incorporated to represent resourcefulness and ingenuity that avoids potential losses during and after an event. Such strategies operate at three levels of the economy: micro (e.g., ability to catch up on lost production time), meso (e.g., coordination within a sector to share resources), and macro (e.g., price adjustments to redistribute scarce resources). A sensitivity analysis of the ARkStorm economic impact model explores the effects of 1) the magnitude of the shocks (e.g., flood damages to buildings and infrastructure, agricultural productivity, and lifeline service disruptions), 2) the sustainability of the economic resilience strategies, and 3) the amount, timing, and source of reconstruction funds. The inclusion of an economic analysis in ShakeOut and ARkStorm broadens the range of interest in the scenario results. For example, the relative contribution of ShakeOut economic shocks to business interruption losses emphasized the need to reduce the impacts of fire following earthquake and water service disruption. Based on the magnitude and duration of the economic impacts for the ARkStorm scenario, policy experts surmised that business interruption policy time elements would be exceeded and business interruptions would be largely unfunded calling attention to the need for innovative funding solutions. Finally, economic impact analyses inform the question of paying now to mitigate or paying more later to recover.

Assessment of Polarimetric SAR Interferometry for Improving Ship Classification based on Simulated Data

PubMed Central

Margarit, Gerard; Mallorqui, Jordi J.

2008-01-01

This paper uses a complete and realistic SAR simulation processing chain, GRECOSAR, to study the potentialities of Polarimetric SAR Interferometry (POLInSAR) in the development of new classification methods for ships. Its high processing efficiency and scenario flexibility have allowed to develop exhaustive scattering studies. The results have revealed, first, vessels' geometries can be described by specific combinations of Permanent Polarimetric Scatterers (PePS) and, second, each type of vessel could be characterized by a particular spatial and polarimetric distribution of PePS. Such properties have been recently exploited to propose a new Vessel Classification Algorithm (VCA) working with POLInSAR data, which, according to several simulation tests, may provide promising performance in real scenarios. Along the paper, explanation of the main steps summarizing the whole research activity carried out with ships and GRECOSAR are provided as well as examples of the main results and VCA validation tests. Special attention will be devoted to the new improvements achieved, which are related to simulations processing a new and highly realistic sea surface model. The paper will show that, for POLInSAR data with fine resolution, VCA can help to classify ships with notable robustness under diverse and adverse observation conditions. PMID:27873954

Development of digital reconstructed radiography software at new treatment facility for carbon-ion beam scanning of National Institute of Radiological Sciences.

PubMed

Mori, Shinichiro; Inaniwa, Taku; Kumagai, Motoki; Kuwae, Tsunekazu; Matsuzaki, Yuka; Furukawa, Takuji; Shirai, Toshiyuki; Noda, Koji

2012-06-01

To increase the accuracy of carbon ion beam scanning therapy, we have developed a graphical user interface-based digitally-reconstructed radiograph (DRR) software system for use in routine clinical practice at our center. The DRR software is used in particular scenarios in the new treatment facility to achieve the same level of geometrical accuracy at the treatment as at the imaging session. DRR calculation is implemented simply as the summation of CT image voxel values along the X-ray projection ray. Since we implemented graphics processing unit-based computation, the DRR images are calculated with a speed sufficient for the particular clinical practice requirements. Since high spatial resolution flat panel detector (FPD) images should be registered to the reference DRR images in patient setup process in any scenarios, the DRR images also needs higher spatial resolution close to that of FPD images. To overcome the limitation of the CT spatial resolution imposed by the CT voxel size, we applied image processing to improve the calculated DRR spatial resolution. The DRR software introduced here enabled patient positioning with sufficient accuracy for the implementation of carbon-ion beam scanning therapy at our center.

Untangling Risk in Water Supply Systems: What Factors Drive Long-term Adaptation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeff, H. B.; Lin, L.; Band, L. E.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

2016-12-01

Deeply uncertain factors like climate change, the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, forest evolution, and long-term demand forecasts make water supply planning a `wicked' problem. The traditional technique of assessing risk based on historical observations can be inadequate in the face of environmental non-stationarity. However, competing models and limited observational data make it difficult for decision makers and experts to agree on how much uncertainty should be built into analyses of risk, particularly at the timescales relevant to long-term investments in water infrastructure. Further, the physical connectivity of these deeply uncertain processes create inter-related systems, amplifying the challenges of a `worst case scenario'. The development of adaptive systems and planning processes provide solutions that have been shown to meet technical, environmental, and social objectives at lower costs. Instead of developing plans with fixed targets for the timing of actions, adaptive plans develop risk metrics and thresholds that are able to integrate new information to determine when conditions reach a `tipping point' which necessitates action. It is an open question as to how new information can be best integrated into the decision-making process (i.e. how much weight do we give new observations relative to the historical record), but a better understanding of the way the relevant systems are expected to evolve and change over time could inform these decisions. In this study, we use linked, dynamic models of temperature and precipitation changes, forest evolution, urbanization, hydrology, and water demand to develop scenarios for an adaptive water management framework that uses risk-based metrics to make short- and long-term decisions. The impact of individual environmental processes on the adaptive capability of this management framework is evaluated through problem formulations that successively increase the complexity of the uncertainty scenarios. Although this work is focused on a group of water utilities in the Research Triangle of North Carolina, results provide insights into the conditions under which environmental changes could outpace our adaptive skill. In turn, risk measures can be designed to identify these conditions and better inform adaptive planning methods.

Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

PubMed

Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

2016-07-01

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling the Water - Quality Effects of Changes to the Klamath River Upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Annett B.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The Link River to Keno Dam (Link-Keno) reach of the Klamath River, Oregon, generally has periods of water-quality impairment during summer, including low dissolved oxygen, elevated concentrations of ammonia and algae, and high pH. Efforts are underway to improve water quality in this reach through a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program and other management and operational actions. To assist in planning, a hydrodynamic and water-quality model was used in this study to provide insight about how various actions could affect water quality in the reach. These model scenarios used a previously developed and calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 model of the Link-Keno reach developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Watercourse Engineering Inc., and the Bureau of Reclamation for calendar years 2006-09 (referred to as the "USGS model" in this report). Another model of the same river reach was previously developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. and the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality for years 2000 and 2002 and was used in the TMDL process; that model is referred to as the "TMDL model" in this report. This report includes scenarios that (1) assess the effect of TMDL allocations on water quality, (2) provide insight on certain aspects of the TMDL model, (3) assess various methods to improve water quality in this reach, and (4) examine possible water-quality effects of a future warmer climate. Results presented in this report for the first 5 scenarios supersede or augment those that were previously published (scenarios 1 and 2 in Sullivan and others [2011], 3 through 5 in Sullivan and others [2012]); those previous results are still valid, but the results for those scenarios in this report are more current.

Modelling the impact of liner shipping network perturbations on container cargo routing: Southeast Asia to Europe application.

PubMed

Achurra-Gonzalez, Pablo E; Novati, Matteo; Foulser-Piggott, Roxane; Graham, Daniel J; Bowman, Gary; Bell, Michael G H; Angeloudis, Panagiotis

2016-06-03

Understanding how container routing stands to be impacted by different scenarios of liner shipping network perturbations such as natural disasters or new major infrastructure developments is of key importance for decision-making in the liner shipping industry. The variety of actors and processes within modern supply chains and the complexity of their relationships have previously led to the development of simulation-based models, whose application has been largely compromised by their dependency on extensive and often confidential sets of data. This study proposes the application of optimisation techniques less dependent on complex data sets in order to develop a quantitative framework to assess the impacts of disruptive events on liner shipping networks. We provide a categorization of liner network perturbations, differentiating between systemic and external and formulate a container assignment model that minimises routing costs extending previous implementations to allow feasible solutions when routing capacity is reduced below transport demand. We develop a base case network for the Southeast Asia to Europe liner shipping trade and review of accidents related to port disruptions for two scenarios of seismic and political conflict hazards. Numerical results identify alternative routing paths and costs in the aftermath of port disruptions scenarios and suggest higher vulnerability of intra-regional connectivity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the long-term effects of land use changes on runoff patterns and food production in a large lake watershed with policy implications.

PubMed

Sun, Zhandong; Lotz, Tom; Chang, Ni-Bin

2017-12-15

Effects of land use development on runoff patterns are salient at a hydrological response unit scale. However, quantitative analysis at the watershed scale is still a challenge due to the complex spatial heterogeneity of the upstream and downstream hydrological relationships and the inherent structure of drainage systems. This study aims to use the well-calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the response of hydrological processes under different land use scenarios in a large lake watershed (Lake Dongting) in the middle Yangtze River basin in China. Based on possible land use changes, scale-dependent land use scenarios were developed and parameters embedded in SWAT were calibrated and validated for hydrological systems analysis. This approach leads to the simulation of the land use change impacts on the hydrological cycle. Results indicated that evapotranspiration, surface runoff, groundwater flow, and water yield were affected by the land use change scenarios in different magnitudes. Overall, changes of land use and land cover have significant impacts on runoff patterns at the watershed scale in terms of both the total water yield (i.e., groundwater flow, surface runoff, and interflow, minus transmission losses) and the spatial distribution of runoff. The changes in runoff distribution were resulted in opposite impacts within the two land use scenarios including forest and agriculture. Water yield has a decrease of 1.8 percent in the forest-prone landscape scenario and an increase of 4.2 percent in the agriculture-rich scenario during the simulated period. Surface runoff was the most affected component in the hydrological cycle. Whereas surface runoff as part of water yield has a decrease of 8.2 percent in the forest- prone landscape scenario, there is an increase of 8.6 percent in the agriculture-rich landscape scenario. Different runoff patterns associated with each land use scenario imply the potential effect on flood or drought mitigation policy. Based on the results, key areas were identified to show that hydrological extreme mitigation and flood control can be coordinated by some land use regulations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Problem Solving and the Development of Expertise in Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lash, Fredrick B.

This study investigated novice and expert problem solving behavior in management to examine the role of domain specific knowledge on problem solving processes. Forty-one middle level marketing managers in a large petrochemical organization provided think aloud protocols in response to two hypothetical management scenarios. Protocol analysis…

A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ensembles of process-based crop models are now commonly used to simulate crop growth and development for climate scenarios of temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of de...

Exploring an Alternative Model of Human Reproductive Capability: A Creative Learning Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cherif, Abour H.; Jedlicka, Dianne M.

2012-01-01

Biological and social evolutionary processes, along with social and cultural developments, have allowed humans to separate procreation from pleasurable/recreational sexual activity. As a class learning project, an alternative, hypothetical reproductive scenario is presented: "What if humans were biologically ready to conceive only during one…

Projection of anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions in China for the period 2010-2020

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Wei; Wang, Shuxiao; Hao, Jiming; Cheng, Shuiyuan

2011-12-01

The future (2010-2020) anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions in China were projected in this study using 2005 as the reference year. The projections are based on the assumptions of a lower population growth rate (less than 1%), continuous economic development with high GDP growth, and increased urbanization. The results show that the national VOCs emissions would continuously increase from 19.4 Tg in 2005 to 25.9 Tg in 2020, even if China's legislative standards for VOCs emissions are implemented effectively in the future (assumed as control scenario I). The contributions of various emission sources were found to differ greatly in the period of 2010-2020. Solvent utilization would become the largest contributor rising from 22% to 37%, along with an increase for industrial processes from 17% to 24%. However, road vehicle emissions would rapidly decrease from 25% to 11% due to the strict VOCs emission limit standards in China, along with the decrease for stationary fuel combustion from 23% to 16% caused by the reduction of domestic biofuel consumption. Additionally, there would be a notable divergence among provincial emissions. The developed eastern and coastal regions would emit more VOCs than the relatively underdeveloped western and inland regions. Moreover, this divergence grows in the future. When we assumed stricter control measures for solvent utilization and industrial processes (control scenario II) for that period, the projections revealed national VOCs emissions per year would remain at about 20 Tg, if exhaust after-treatment systems are installed in newly-built factories (after 2005) for the most important industrial sources, and the market shares of "low/zero-VOCs" products in paints, adhesives and printing ink raise to the present levels of developed countries. The emission abatements of the two types of measures were estimated to be similar. While scenario II indicates that the sectoral and provincial differences of VOCs emissions would still exist, they would be smaller than in scenario I.

Evaluation of new alternatives in wastewater treatment plants based on dynamic modelling and life cycle assessment (DM-LCA).

PubMed

Bisinella de Faria, A B; Spérandio, M; Ahmadi, A; Tiruta-Barna, L

2015-11-01

With a view to quantifying the energy and environmental advantages of Urine Source-Separation (USS) combined with different treatment processes, five wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) scenarios were compared to a reference scenario using Dynamic Modelling (DM) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and an integrated DM-LCA framework was thus developed. Dynamic simulations were carried out in BioWin(®) in order to obtain a realistic evaluation of the dynamic behaviour and performance of plants under perturbation. LCA calculations were performed within Umberto(®) using the Ecoinvent database. A Python™ interface was used to integrate and convert simulation data and to introduce them into Umberto(®) to achieve a complete LCA evaluation comprising foreground and background processes. Comparisons between steady-state and dynamic simulations revealed the importance of considering dynamic aspects such as nutrient and flow peaks. The results of the evaluation highlighted the potential of the USS scenario for nutrient recovery whereas the Enhanced Primary Clarification (EPC) scenario gave increased biogas production and also notably decreased aeration consumption, leading to a positive energy balance. Both USS and EPC scenarios also showed increased stability of plant operation, with smaller daily averages of total nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, USS and EPC results demonstrated that the coupled USS + EPC scenario and its combinations with agricultural spreading of N-rich effluent and nitritation/anaerobic deammonification could present an energy-positive balance with respectively 27% and 33% lower energy requirements and an increase in biogas production of 23%, compared to the reference scenario. The coupled scenarios also presented lesser environmental impacts (reduction of 31% and 39% in total endpoint impacts) along with effluent quality well within the specified limits. The marked environmental performance (reduction of global warming) when nitrogen is used in agriculture shows the importance of future research on sustainable solutions for nitrogen recovery. The contribution analysis of midpoint impacts also showed hotspots that it will be important to optimize further, such as plant infrastructure and direct N2O emissions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Load Runoff by a GIS-based Distributed Model for Chikugo River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iseri, Haruka; Hiramatsu, Kazuaki; Harada, Masayoshi

A distributed model was developed in order to simulate the process of nitrogen and phosphorus load runoff in the semi-urban watershed of the Chikugo River, Japan. A grid of cells 1km in size was laid over the study area, and several input variables for each cell area including DEM, land use and statistical data were extracted by GIS. In the process of water runoff, hydrograph calculated at Chikugo Barrage was in close agreement with the observed one, which achieved Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.90. In addition, the model simulated reasonably well the movement of TN and TP at each station. The model was also used to analyze three scenarios based on the watershed management: (1) reduction of nutrient loads from livestock farm, (2) improvement of septic tanks' wastewater treatment system and (3) application of purification function of paddy fields. As a result, effectiveness of management strategy in each scenario depended on land use patterns. The reduction rates of nutrient load effluent in scenarios (1) and (3) were higher than that in scenario (2). The present result suggests that an appropriate management of livestock farm together with the effective use of paddy environment would have significant effects on the reduction of nutrient loads. A suitable management strategy should be planned based on the land use pattern in the watershed.

A complete life cycle assessment of high density polyethylene plastic bottle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Treenate, P.; Limphitakphong, N.; Chavalparit, O.

2017-07-01

This study was aimed to determine environmental performances of a lubricant oil bottle made from high density polyethylene and to develop potential measures for reducing its impacts. A complete life cycle assessment was carried out to understand a whole effect on the environment from acquiring, processing, using, and disposing the product. Two scenarios of disposal phase; recycle and incineration: were examined to quantify a lesser degree on environmental impact. The results illustrated that major impacts of the two scenarios were at the same categories with the highest contributor of raw material acquisition and pre-processing. However, all impacts in case of recycling provided a lower point than that in case of incineration, except mineral extraction. Finally, feasible measures for reducing the environmental impact of high density polyethylene plastic bottle were proposed in accordance with 3Rs concept.

Task analysis of intersection driving scenarios : information processing bottlenecks

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-08-01

The purpose of this report is to identify the information processing bottlenecks that drivers face in specific intersection driving scenarios. These bottlenecks represent situations in which drivers may become 'overloaded' by driving demands, which c...

Carbon plants nutrition and global food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, Luigi

2017-02-01

To evaluate the effects of carbon nutrition on agricultural productivity, a physiological-process-based crop simulation model, driven by the 1961-1990 monthly climate data from global FAO dataset, was developed and applied to four crops (wheat, maize, rice and soybean -WMRS) which account for 64% of the global caloric consumption of humans. Five different temperatures and CO2 scenarios (current; glacial; pre-industrial; future_1 with 560 ppmv for CO2 and +2 °C for temperature; and future_2 with 800 ppmv for CO2 and +4 °C) were investigated. The relative values of WMRS global productions for past and future scenarios were, respectively, 49% of the present-day scenario for glacial, 82% for pre-industrial, 115% for future_1 and 124% for future_2. A sensitive growth of productivity of future scenarios (respectively to 117% and 134%) was observed if the northward shift of crops was allowed, and a strong increase was obtained without water limitation (from 151% to 157% for the five scenarios) and without biotic and abiotic stresses (from 30% to 40% for WMRS subject to the current scenario). Furthermore since the beginning of the Green Revolution (roughly happened between the '30s and the '50s of the twentieth century) production losses due to sub-optimal levels of CO2 and to biotic and abiotic stresses have been masked by the strong technological innovation trend still ongoing, which, in the last century, led to a strong increase in the global crop production (+400%-600%). These results show the crucial relevance of the future choices of research and development in agriculture (genetics, land reclamation, irrigation, plant protection, and so on) to ensure global food security.

Evaluating Dietary Changes and Their Impact on the Food-Energy-Water Nexus and Climate Change Mitigation using an Integrated Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kim, S. H.; Waldhoff, S.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

2016-12-01

The composition of the global diet has evolved with the rise of meat consumption in developing countries. The steady rise in the consumption of meat, along with an increasing global population, has changed the agricultural and livestock landscape of the world. We have developed diet scenarios in which the global food consumption is increased to match the USDA recommended daily caloric intake while the percentage of meat within the diet is changed to closely mirror that of the standard United States diet (High Meat) and the diet of India (Low Meat). We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), to process our dietary change scenarios. We attempt to quantify the changes in the global land, water, and emissions footprint. Along with the standard diet scenarios, we aim to understand the implications of our diet scenarios within a strict RCP 2.6 climate change scenario. Changes in land use, emissions, and water consumption are largely dependent upon the resultant changes to the livestock sector. Scenarios of increased dependency on livestock result in cropland expansion, a rise in water withdrawals, and escalated non-CO2 emissions that lead to consequent increases in global mean temperature. Under strict climate policies, extensive cropland and biomass expansion is observed at the expense of much of the global forests. Our analysis shows that even in the absence of climate policies, the burden that increasing the amount of meat in the global diet has upon the global landscape could be unsustainable, while lowering global meat consumption could lead to water savings, decreases in emissions, and available land for reforestation or biomass growth.

A web-based 3D visualisation and assessment system for urban precinct scenario modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trubka, Roman; Glackin, Stephen; Lade, Oliver; Pettit, Chris

2016-07-01

Recent years have seen an increasing number of spatial tools and technologies for enabling better decision-making in the urban environment. They have largely arisen because of the need for cities to be more efficiently planned to accommodate growing populations while mitigating urban sprawl, and also because of innovations in rendering data in 3D being well suited for visualising the urban built environment. In this paper we review a number of systems that are better known and more commonly used in the field of urban planning. We then introduce Envision Scenario Planner (ESP), a web-based 3D precinct geodesign, visualisation and assessment tool, developed using Agile and Co-design methods. We provide a comprehensive account of the tool, beginning with a discussion of its design and development process and concluding with an example use case and a discussion of the lessons learned in its development.

Biomass to levulinic acid: A techno-economic analysis and sustainability of biorefinery processes in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Isoni, V; Kumbang, D; Sharratt, P N; Khoo, H H

2018-05-15

Aligned with Singapore's commitment to sustainable development and investment in renewable resources, cleaner energy and technology (Sustainable Singapore Blueprint), we report a techno-economic analysis of the biorefinery process in Southeast Asia. The considerations in this study provide an overview of the current and future challenges in the biomass-to-chemical processes with life-cycle thinking, linking the land used for agriculture and biomass to the levulinic acid production. 7-8 kg of lignocellulosic feedstock (glucan content 30-35 wt%) from agriculture residues empty fruit bunches (EFB) or rice straw (RS) can be processed to yield 1 kg of levulinic acid. Comparisons of both traditional and "green" alternative solvents and separation techniques for the chemical process were modelled and their relative energy profiles evaluated. Using 2-methyltetrahydrofuran (2-MeTHF) as the process solvent showed to approx. 20 fold less energy demand compared to methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) or approx. 180 fold less energy demand compared to direct distillation from aqueous stream. Greenhouse gases emissions of the major operations throughout the supply chain (energy and solvent use, transport, field emissions) were estimated and compared against the impact of deforestation to make space for agriculture purposes. A biorefinery process for the production of 20 ktonne/year of levulinic acid from two different types of lignocellulosic feedstock was hypothesized for different scenarios. In one scenario the chemical plant producing levulinic acid was located in Singapore whereas in other scenarios, its location was placed in a neighboring country, closer to the biomass source. Results from this study show the importance of feedstock choices, as well as the associated plant locations, in the quest for sustainability objectives. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A scenario-planning approach to human resources for health: the case of community pharmacists in Portugal.

PubMed

Gregório, João; Cavaco, Afonso; Velez Lapão, Luís

2014-10-13

Health workforce planning is especially important in a setting of political, social, and economic uncertainty. Portuguese community pharmacists are experiencing such conditions as well as increasing patient empowerment, shortage of primary care physicians, and primary health care reforms. This study aims to design three future scenarios for Portuguese community pharmacists, recognizing the changing environment as an opportunity to develop the role that community pharmacists may play in the Portuguese health system. The community pharmacist scenario design followed a three-stage approach. The first stage comprised thinking of relevant questions to be addressed and definition of the scenarios horizon. The second stage comprised two face-to-face, scenario-building workshops, for which 10 experts from practice and academic settings were invited. Academic and professional experience was the main selection criteria. The first workshop was meant for context analysis and design of draft scenarios, while the second was aimed at scenario analysis and validation. The final scenarios were built merging workshops' information with data collected from scientific literature followed by team consensus. The final stage involved scenario development carried by the authors alone, developing the narratives behind each scenario. Analysis allowed the identification of critical factors expected to have particular influence in 2020 for Portuguese community pharmacists, leading to two critical uncertainties: the "Legislative environment" and "Ability to innovate and develop services". Three final scenarios were built, namely "Pharmacy-Mall", "e-Pharmacist", and "Reorganize or Die". These scenarios provide possible trends for market needs, pharmacist workforce numbers, and expected qualifications to be developed by future professionals. In all scenarios it is clear that the future advance of Portuguese community pharmacists will depend on pharmaceutical services provision beyond medicine dispensing. This innovative professional role will require the acquisition or development of competencies in the fields of management, leadership, marketing, information technologies, teamwork abilities, and behavioural and communication skills. To accomplish a sustainable evolution, legislative changes and adequate financial incentives will be beneficial. The scenario development proves to be valuable as a strategic planning tool, not only for understanding future community pharmacist needs in a complex and uncertain environment, but also for other health care professionals.

Validation of Variations in Mental Workload as a Function of Scenario Difficulty: Traffic Density and Visibility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2003-01-01

Fluctuations in mental workload can be expected as a function of traffic density and visibility. The aim of the current investigation was to establish simulation scenarios that differed in attentional processing requirements. Four scenarios were created and tested representing two levels of traffic density (urban versus freeway) and two levels of visibility (clear versus foggy). An array of mental workload assessment measures were used to exam changes in attentional processing requirements in each scenario. The assessment array consisted of physiological (P300 amplitude and latency) and behavioral (RT and accuracy) indices. Preliminary results indicate that workload differs significantly as a function of traffic density in rural versus freeway scenarios. Workload also differs significantly in rural versus freeway scenarios as a function of visibility as observed by a significant interaction between the two variables of interest. Results are discussed in terms of their application for validating the difficulty level of simulation scenarios as a format for examining mental workload.

Agricultural Recharge Practices for Managing Nitrate in Regional Groundwater: Time-Resolution Assessment of Numerical Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastani, M.; Harter, T.

2017-12-01

Intentional recharge practices in irrigated landscapes are promising options to control and remediate groundwater quality degradation with respect to nitrate. To better understand the effect of these practices, a fully 3D transient heterogeneous transport model simulation is developed using MODFLOW and MT3D. The model is developed for a long-term study of nitrate improvements in an alluvial groundwater basin in Eastern San Joaquin Valley, CA. Different scenarios of agricultural recharge strategies including crop type change and winter flood flows are investigated. Transient simulations with high spatio-temporal resolutions are performed. We then consider upscaling strategies that would allow us to simplify the modeling process such that it can be applied at a very large basin-scale (1000s of square kilometers) for scenario analysis. We specifically consider upscaling of time-variant boundary conditions (both internal and external) that have significant influence on calculation cost of the model. We compare monthly transient stresses to upscaled annual and further upscaled average steady-state stresses on nitrate transport in groundwater under recharge scenarios.

Bringing politics back into water planning scenarios in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Sara; Bouleau, Gabrielle; Treyer, Sébastien

2014-10-01

The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

Effects of reducing processed culinary ingredients and ultra-processed foods in the Brazilian diet: a cardiovascular modelling study.

PubMed

Moreira, Patrícia Vl; Hyseni, Lirije; Moubarac, Jean-Claude; Martins, Ana Paula B; Baraldi, Larissa G; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin; Guzman-Castillo, Maria

2018-01-01

To estimate the impact of reducing saturated fat, trans-fat, salt and added sugar from processed culinary ingredients and ultra-processed foods in the Brazilian diet on preventing cardiovascular deaths by 2030. A modelling study. Data were obtained from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey 2008/2009. All food items purchased were categorized into food groups according to the NOVA classification. We estimated the energy and nutrient profile of foods then used the IMPACT Food Policy model to estimate the reduction in deaths from CVD up to 2030 in three scenarios. In Scenario A, we assumed that the intakes of saturated fat, trans-fat, salt and added sugar from ultra-processed foods and processed culinary ingredients were reduced by a quarter. In Scenario B, we assumed a reduction of 50 % of the same nutrients in ultra-processed foods and processed culinary ingredients. In Scenario C, we reduced the same nutrients in ultra-processed foods by 75 % and in processed culinary ingredients by 50 %. Approximately 390 400 CVD deaths might be expected in 2030 if current mortality patterns persist. Under Scenarios A, B and C, CVD mortality can be reduced by 5·5, 11·0 and 29·0 %, respectively. The main impact is on stroke with a reduction of approximately 6·0, 12·6 and 32·0 %, respectively. Substantial potential exists for reducing the CVD burden through overall improvements of the Brazilian diet. This might require reducing the penetration of ultra-processed foods by means of regulatory policies, as well as improving the access to and promotion of fresh and minimally processed foods.

Efficient and sustainable deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in mitigation pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Moriyama, R.; Kurosawa, A.

2016-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions at the end of the 21st century. Also, in the Paris agreement from COP21, it is denoted "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century" which could require large scale deployment of negative emissions technologies later in this century. Because of the additional requirement for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of large-scale BECCS. In this study, we present possible development strategies of low carbon scenarios that consider interaction of economically efficient deployment of bioenergy and/or BECCS technologies, biophysical limit of bioenergy productivity, and food production. In the evaluations, detailed bioenergy representations, including bioenergy feedstocks and conversion technologies with and without CCS, are implemented in an integrated assessment model GRAPE. Also, to overcome a general discrepancy about yield development between 'top-down' integrate assessment models and 'bottom-up' estimates, we applied yields changes of food and bioenergy crops consistent with process-based biophysical models; PRYSBI-2 (Process-Based Regional-Scale Yield Simulator with Bayesian Inference) for food crops, and SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for bioenergy crops in changing climate conditions. Using the framework, economically viable strategy for implementing sustainable BECCS are evaluated.

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, B.; Melaina, M.; Penev, M.

This report describes the development and analysis of detailed temporal and spatial scenarios for early market hydrogen fueling infrastructure clustering and fuel cell electric vehicle rollout using the Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization and Analysis (SERA) model. The report provides an overview of the SERA scenario development framework and discusses the approach used to develop the nationwidescenario.

Sustainable BECCS pathways evaluated by an integrated assessment model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.

2017-12-01

Negative emissions technologies, particularly Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), are key components of mitigation strategies in ambitious future socioeconomic scenarios analysed by integrated assessment models. Generally, scenarios aiming to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Also, in the context of Paris agreement which acknowledges "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century", RD&D for the negative emissions technologies in this decade has a crucial role for the possibility of early deployment of the technology. Because of the requirement of potentially extensive use of land and water for producing the bioenergy feedstock to get the anticipated level of gross negative emissions, researches on how to develop sustainable scenarios of BECCS is needed. Here, we present BECCS deployment scenarios that consider economically viable flow of bioenergy system including power generation and conversion process to liquid and gaseous fuels for transportation and heat with consideration of sustainable global biomass use. In the modelling process, detailed bioenergy representations, i.e. various feedstock and conversion technologies with and without CCS, are implemented in an integrated assessment (IA) model GRAPE (Global Relationship Assessment to Protect the Environment). Also, to overcome a general discrepancy about assumed future agricultural yield between 'top-down' IA models and 'bottom-up' estimates, which would crucially affect the land-use pattern, we applied yields change of food and energy crops consistent with process-based biophysical crop models in consideration of changing climate conditions. Using the framework, economically viable strategy for implementing sustainable bioenergy and BECCS flow are evaluated in the scenarios targeting to keep global average temperature rise below 2°C and/or 1.5°C above pre-industrial.

Can bottom-up processes of attention be a source of 'interference' in situations where top-down control of attention is crucial?

PubMed

Nikolla, Dritan; Edgar, Graham; Catherwood, Dianne; Matthews, Tristan

2018-02-01

In this study, we investigate whether emotionally engaged bottom-up processes of attention can be a source of 'interference' in situations where top-down control of attention is necessary. Participants were asked to monitor and report on a video of a war scenario showing a developing battle in two conditions: emotionally positive and emotionally negative. Half of the participants (n = 15) were exposed to task-irrelevant pictures of positive emotional valence embedded within the scenario; the other half were exposed to task-irrelevant pictures of negative emotional valence. Sensitivity and Bias scores were calculated using signal detection theory. Overall, task accuracy scores were dependent upon the valence; negative pictures had an adverse effect on performance, whereas positive pictures improved performance. We concluded that negative emotional pictures interfered with top-down control of attention by attracting competing bottom-up processes of attention. We found the opposite effect for positive emotional stimuli. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Advanced local area network concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grant, Terry

1985-01-01

Development of a good model of the data traffic requirements for Local Area Networks (LANs) onboard the Space Station is the driving problem in this work. A parameterized workload model is under development. An analysis contract has been started specifically to capture the distributed processing requirements for the Space Station and then to develop a top level model to simulate how various processing scenarios can handle the workload and what data communication patterns result. A summary of the Local Area Network Extendsible Simulator 2 Requirements Specification and excerpts from a grant report on the topological design of fiber optic local area networks with application to Expressnet are given.

A general engineering scenario for concurrent engineering environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mucino, V. H.; Pavelic, V.

The paper describes an engineering method scenario which categorizes the various activities and tasks into blocks seen as subjects which consume and produce data and information. These methods, tools, and associated utilities interact with other engineering tools by exchanging information in such a way that a relationship between customers and suppliers of engineering data is established clearly, while data exchange consistency is maintained throughout the design process. The events and data transactions are presented in the form of flowcharts in which data transactions represent the connection between the various bricks, which in turn represent the engineering activities developed for the particular task required in the concurrent engineering environment.

Voltammetry Method Evaluation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoyt, N.; Pereira, C.; Willit, J.

2016-07-29

The purpose of the ANL MPACT Voltammetry project is to evaluate the suitability of previously developed cyclic voltammetry techniques to provide electroanalytical measurements of actinide concentrations in realistic used fuel processing scenarios. The molten salts in these scenarios are very challenging as they include high concentrations of multiple electrochemically active species, thereby creating a variety of complications. Some of the problems that arise therein include issues related to uncompensated resistance, cylindrical diffusion, and alloying of the electrodeposited metals. Improvements to the existing voltammetry technique to account for these issues have been implemented, resulting in good measurements of actinide concentrations acrossmore » a wide range of adverse conditions.« less

Parallel Processing of Numerical Tsunami Simulations on a High Performance Cluster based on the GDAL Library

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, Matthias; Jankowski, Cedric; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

2014-05-01

Thousands of numerical tsunami simulations allow the computation of inundation and run-up along the coast for vulnerable areas over the time. A so-called Matching Scenario Database (MSDB) [1] contains this large number of simulations in text file format. In order to visualize these wave propagations the scenarios have to be reprocessed automatically. In the TRIDEC project funded by the seventh Framework Programme of the European Union a Virtual Scenario Database (VSDB) and a Matching Scenario Database (MSDB) were established amongst others by the working group of the University of Bologna (UniBo) [1]. One part of TRIDEC was the developing of a new generation of a Decision Support System (DSS) for tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) [2]. A working group of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences was responsible for developing the Command and Control User Interface (CCUI) as central software application which support operator activities, incident management and message disseminations. For the integration and visualization in the CCUI, the numerical tsunami simulations from MSDB must be converted into the shapefiles format. The usage of shapefiles enables a much easier integration into standard Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Since also the CCUI is based on two widely used open source products (GeoTools library and uDig), whereby the integration of shapefiles is provided by these libraries a priori. In this case, for an example area around the Western Iberian margin several thousand tsunami variations were processed. Due to the mass of data only a program-controlled process was conceivable. In order to optimize the computing efforts and operating time the use of an existing GFZ High Performance Computing Cluster (HPC) had been chosen. Thus, a geospatial software was sought after that is capable for parallel processing. The FOSS tool Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL/OGR) was used to match the coordinates with the wave heights and generates the different shapefiles for certain time steps. The shapefiles contain afterwards lines for visualizing the isochrones of the wave propagation and moreover, data about the maximum wave height and the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) at the coast. Our contribution shows the entire workflow and the visualizing results of the-processing for the example region Western Iberian ocean margin. [1] Armigliato A., Pagnoni G., Zaniboni F, Tinti S. (2013), Database of tsunami scenario simulations for Western Iberia: a tool for the TRIDEC Project Decision Support System for tsunami early warning, Vol. 15, EGU2013-5567, EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna (Austria). [2] Löwe, P., Wächter, J., Hammitzsch, M., Lendholt, M., Häner, R. (2013): The Evolution of Service-oriented Disaster Early Warning Systems in the TRIDEC Project, 23rd International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference - ISOPE-2013, Anchorage (USA).

Multi-frame image processing with panning cameras and moving subjects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paolini, Aaron; Humphrey, John; Curt, Petersen; Kelmelis, Eric

2014-06-01

Imaging scenarios commonly involve erratic, unpredictable camera behavior or subjects that are prone to movement, complicating multi-frame image processing techniques. To address these issues, we developed three techniques that can be applied to multi-frame image processing algorithms in order to mitigate the adverse effects observed when cameras are panning or subjects within the scene are moving. We provide a detailed overview of the techniques and discuss the applicability of each to various movement types. In addition to this, we evaluated algorithm efficacy with demonstrated benefits using field test video, which has been processed using our commercially available surveillance product. Our results show that algorithm efficacy is significantly improved in common scenarios, expanding our software's operational scope. Our methods introduce little computational burden, enabling their use in real-time and low-power solutions, and are appropriate for long observation periods. Our test cases focus on imaging through turbulence, a common use case for multi-frame techniques. We present results of a field study designed to test the efficacy of these techniques under expanded use cases.

Managing Multiplicity: Conceptualizing Physician Cognition in Multipatient Environments.

PubMed

Chan, Teresa M; Mercuri, Mathew; Van Dewark, Kenneth; Sherbino, Jonathan; Schwartz, Alan; Norman, Geoff; Lineberry, Matthew

2018-05-01

Emergency physicians (EPs) regularly manage multiple patients simultaneously, often making time-sensitive decisions around priorities for multiple patients. Few studies have explored physician cognition in multipatient scenarios. The authors sought to develop a conceptual framework to describe how EPs think in busy, multipatient environments. From July 2014 to May 2015, a qualitative study was conducted at McMaster University, using a think-aloud protocol to examine how 10 attending EPs and 10 junior residents made decisions in multipatient environments. Participants engaged in the think-aloud exercise for five different simulated multipatient scenarios. Transcripts from recorded interviews were analyzed inductively, with an iterative process involving two independent coders, and compared between attendings and residents. The attending EPs and junior residents used similar processes to prioritize patients in these multipatient scenarios. The think-aloud processes demonstrated a similar process used by almost all participants. The cognitive task of patient prioritization consisted of three components: a brief overview of the entire cohort of patients to determine a general strategy; an individual chart review, whereby the participant created a functional patient story from information available in a file (i.e., vitals, brief clinical history); and creation of a relative priority list. Compared with residents, the attendings were better able to construct deeper and more complex patient stories. The authors propose a conceptual framework for how EPs prioritize care for multiple patients in complex environments. This study may be useful to teachers who train physicians to function more efficiently in busy clinical environments.

Scenario Planning: A Phenomenological Examination of Influence on Organizational Learning and Decision-Making in a K-12 Public Education System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deklotz, Patricia F.

2013-01-01

Organizations commonly engage in long range planning to direct decisions. Scenario planning, one method of private sector planning, is recognized as useful when organizations are facing uncertainty. Scenario planning engages the organization in a process that produces plausible stories, called scenarios, describing the organization in several…

Some considerations on the attractiveness of participatory processes for researchers from natural science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthel, Roland

2013-04-01

Participatory modeling and participatory scenario development have become an essential part of environmental impact assessment and planning in the field of water resources management. But even if most people agree that participation is required to solve environmental problems in a way that satisfies both the environmental and societal needs, success stories are relatively rare, while many attempts to include stakeholders in the development of models are still reported to have failed. This paper proposes the hypothesis, that the lack of success in participatory modeling can partly be attributed to a lack of attractiveness of participatory approaches for researchers from natural sciences (subsequently called 'modelers'). It has to be pointed out that this discussion is mainly concerned with natural scientists in academia and not with modelers who develop models for commercial purposes or modelers employed by public agencies. The involvement of modelers and stakeholders in participatory modeling has been intensively studied during recent years. However, such analysis is rarely made from the viewpoint of the modelers themselves. Modelers usually don't see participatory modeling and scenario development as scientific targets as such, because the theoretical foundations of such processes usually lie far outside their own area of expertise. Thus, participatory processes are seen mainly as a means to attract funding or to facilitate the access to data or (relatively rarely) as a way to develop a research model into a commercial product. The majority of modelers very likely do not spend too much time on reflecting whether or not their new tools are helpful to solve real world problems or if the results are understandable and acceptable for stakeholders. They consider their task completed when the model they developed satisfies the 'scientific requirements', which are essentially different from the requirements to satisfy a group of stakeholders. Funding often stops before a newly developed model can actually be tested in a stakeholder process. Therefore the gap between stakeholders and modelers persists or is even growing. A main reason for this probably lies in the way that the work of scientists (modelers) is evaluated. What counts is the number of journal articles produced, while applicability or societal impact is still not a measure of scientific success. A good journal article on a model requires an exemplary validation but only very rarely would a reviewer ask if a model was accepted by stakeholders. So why should a scientist go through a tedious stakeholder process? The stakeholder process might be a requirement of the research grant, but whether this is taken seriously, can be questioned, as long as stakeholder dialogues do not lead to quantifiable scientific success. In particular for researchers in early career stages who undergo typical, publication-based evaluation processes, participatory research is hardly beneficial. The discussion in this contribution is based on three pillars: (i) a comprehensive evaluation of the literature published on participatory modeling and scenario development, (ii) a case study involving the development of an integrated model for water and land use management including an intensive stakeholder process and (iii) unstructured, personal communication - with mainly young scientists - about the attractiveness of multidisciplinary, applied research.

A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

PubMed Central

Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

2003-01-01

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

Hot Swapping Protocol Implementations in the OPNET Modeler Development Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

components. Unfortunately, this style is not efficient or particularly human–readable. Even purely pedagogical scenarios consisting of a client and a...definition provided by the mock object. sion of this kernel procedure steers all packets sent with op pk deliver() to the unit testing’s specialized...forms of development. Moreover, batteries of unit tests could ship with the accompanying process models and serve as robust regression tests

Mobile, Collaborative Situated Knowledge Creation for Urban Planning

PubMed Central

Zurita, Gustavo; Baloian, Nelson

2012-01-01

Geo-collaboration is an emerging research area in computer sciences studying the way spatial, geographically referenced information and communication technologies can support collaborative activities. Scenarios in which information associated to its physical location are of paramount importance are often referred as Situated Knowledge Creation scenarios. To date there are few computer systems supporting knowledge creation that explicitly incorporate physical context as part of the knowledge being managed in mobile face-to-face scenarios. This work presents a collaborative software application supporting visually-geo-referenced knowledge creation in mobile working scenarios while the users are interacting face-to-face. The system allows to manage data information associated to specific physical locations for knowledge creation processes in the field, such as urban planning, identifying specific physical locations, territorial management, etc.; using Tablet-PCs and GPS in order to geo-reference data and information. It presents a model for developing mobile applications supporting situated knowledge creation in the field, introducing the requirements for such an application and the functionalities it should have in order to fulfill them. The paper also presents the results of utility and usability evaluations. PMID:22778639

Mobile, collaborative situated knowledge creation for urban planning.

PubMed

Zurita, Gustavo; Baloian, Nelson

2012-01-01

Geo-collaboration is an emerging research area in computer sciences studying the way spatial, geographically referenced information and communication technologies can support collaborative activities. Scenarios in which information associated to its physical location are of paramount importance are often referred as Situated Knowledge Creation scenarios. To date there are few computer systems supporting knowledge creation that explicitly incorporate physical context as part of the knowledge being managed in mobile face-to-face scenarios. This work presents a collaborative software application supporting visually-geo-referenced knowledge creation in mobile working scenarios while the users are interacting face-to-face. The system allows to manage data information associated to specific physical locations for knowledge creation processes in the field, such as urban planning, identifying specific physical locations, territorial management, etc.; using Tablet-PCs and GPS in order to geo-reference data and information. It presents a model for developing mobile applications supporting situated knowledge creation in the field, introducing the requirements for such an application and the functionalities it should have in order to fulfill them. The paper also presents the results of utility and usability evaluations.

Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

PubMed

Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

2013-01-01

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

PubMed Central

Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

2013-01-01

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. PMID:24204922

Potential for recycling of slightly radioactive metals arising from decommissioning within nuclear sector in Slovakia.

PubMed

Hrncir, Tomas; Strazovec, Roman; Zachar, Matej

2017-09-07

The decommissioning of nuclear installations represents a complex process resulting in the generation of large amounts of waste materials containing various concentrations of radionuclides. Selection of an appropriate strategy of management of the mentioned materials strongly influences the effectiveness of decommissioning process keeping in mind safety, financial and other relevant aspects. In line with international incentives for optimization of radioactive material management, concepts of recycling and reuse of materials are widely discussed and applications of these concepts are analysed. Recycling of some portion of these materials within nuclear sector (e.g. scrap metals or concrete rubble) seems to be highly desirable from economical point of view and may lead to conserve some disposal capacity. However, detailed safety assessment along with cost/benefit calculations and feasibility study should be developed in order to prove the safety, practicality and cost effectiveness of possible recycling scenarios. Paper discussed the potential for recycling of slightly radioactive metals arising from decommissioning of NPPs within nuclear sector in Slovakia. Various available recycling scenarios are introduced and method for overall assessment of various recycling scenarios is outlined including the preliminary assessment of safety and financial aspects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agricultural Model for the Nile Basin Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bolt, Frank; Seid, Abdulkarim

2014-05-01

To analyze options for increasing food supply in the Nile basin the Nile Agricultural Model (AM) was developed. The AM includes state-of-the-art descriptions of biophysical, hydrological and economic processes and realizes a coherent and consistent integration of hydrology, agronomy and economics. The AM covers both the agro-ecological domain (water, crop productivity) and the economic domain (food supply, demand, and trade) and allows to evaluate the macro-economic and hydrological impacts of scenarios for agricultural development. Starting with the hydrological information from the NileBasin-DSS the AM calculates the available water for agriculture, the crop production and irrigation requirements with the FAO-model AquaCrop. With the global commodity trade model MAGNET scenarios for land development and conversion are evaluated. The AM predicts consequences for trade, food security and development based on soil and water availability, crop allocation, food demand and food policy. The model will be used as a decision support tool to contribute to more productive and sustainable agriculture in individual Nile countries and the whole region.

Using Simulation to Teach Project Management in the Professional Writing Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krause, Tim

2010-01-01

It hardly bears noting that when writing instructors teach professional writing they focus on helping students learn to analyze complex communication scenarios, conduct careful research to support their position, and to responsibly and succinctly apply the process of writing any number of supporting documents. Developing these skills are essential…

Population viability as a measure of forest sustainability

Treesearch

Eric T. Linder; Nathan A. Klaus; David A. Buehler

2004-01-01

Many forest managers work to balance timber production with protection of ecological processes and other nontimber values. The preservation of biodiversity is an important nontimber value. When a suite of management options is being developed, it is difficult to estimate quantitatively the impact of the various scenarios on biodiversity. We suggest population viability...

Scenario planning.

PubMed

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can suggest which basic features among the "possible futures" are playing out. Scenario planning provides for the implementation of appropriate constructed strategic responses. Scenarios allow for a pre-prepared game plan available for ready use as the future unfolds. They allow a deliberative response rather than a hastily constructed, urgent response. Copyright © 2011 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

2005-10-01

The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processesmore » will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.« less

Development of an Intelligent Digital Watershed to understand water-human interaction for a sustainable Agroeconomy in Midwest USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, S. K.; Rapolu, U.; Ding, D.; Muste, M.; Bennett, D.; Schnoor, J. L.

2011-12-01

Human activity is intricately linked to the quality and quantity of water resources. Although many studies have examined water-human interaction, the complexity of such coupled systems is not well understood largely because of gaps in our knowledge of water-cycle processes which are heavily influenced by socio-economic drivers. Considerable research has been performed to develop an understanding of the impact of local land use decisions on field and catchment processes at an annual basis. Still less is known about the impact of economic and environmental outcomes on decision-making processes at the local and national level. Traditional geographic information management systems lack the ability to support the modeling and analysis of complex spatial processes. New frameworks are needed to track, query, and analyze the massive amounts of data generated by ensembles of simulations produced by multiple models that couple socioeconomic and natural system processes. On this context, we propose to develop an Intelligent Digital Watershed (IDW) which fuses emerging concepts of Digital Watershed (DW). DW is a comprehensive characterization of the eco hydrologic systems based on the best available digital data generated by measurements and simulations models. Prototype IDW in the form of a cyber infrastructure based engineered system will facilitate novel insights into human/environment interactions through multi-disciplinary research focused on watershed-related processes at multiple spatio-temporal scales. In ongoing effort, the prototype IDW is applied to Clear Creek watershed, an agricultural dominating catchment in Iowa, to understand water-human processes relevant to management decisions by farmers regarding agro ecosystems. This paper would also lay out the database design that stores metadata about simulation scenarios, scenario inputs and outputs, and connections among these elements- essentially the database. The paper describes the cyber infrastructure and workflows developed for connecting the IDW modeling tools: ABM, Data-Driven Modeling, and SWAT.

Life Cycle Assessment of Mixed Municipal Solid Waste: Multi-input versus multi-output perspective.

PubMed

Fiorentino, G; Ripa, M; Protano, G; Hornsby, C; Ulgiati, S

2015-12-01

This paper analyses four strategies for managing the Mixed Municipal Solid Waste (MMSW) in terms of their environmental impacts and potential advantages by means of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. To this aim, both a multi-input and a multi-output approach are applied to evaluate the effect of these perspectives on selected impact categories. The analyzed management options include direct landfilling with energy recovery (S-1), Mechanical-Biological Treatment (MBT) followed by Waste-to-Energy (WtE) conversion (S-2), a combination of an innovative MBT/MARSS (Material Advanced Recovery Sustainable Systems) process and landfill disposal (S-3), and finally a combination of the MBT/MARSS process with WtE conversion (S-4). The MARSS technology, developed within an European LIFE PLUS framework and currently implemented at pilot plant scale, is an innovative MBT plant having the main goal to yield a Renewable Refined Biomass Fuel (RRBF) to be used for combined heat and power production (CHP) under the regulations enforced for biomass-based plants instead of Waste-to-Energy systems, for increased environmental performance. The four scenarios are characterized by different resource investment for plant and infrastructure construction and different quantities of matter, heat and electricity recovery and recycling. Results, calculated per unit mass of waste treated and per unit exergy delivered, under both multi-input and multi-output LCA perspectives, point out improved performance for scenarios characterized by increased matter and energy recovery. Although none of the investigated scenarios is capable to provide the best performance in all the analyzed impact categories, the scenario S-4 shows the best LCA results in the human toxicity and freshwater eutrophication categories, i.e. the ones with highest impacts in all waste management processes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Downscaling SSPs in Bangladesh - Integrating Science, Modelling and Stakeholders Through Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allan, A.; Barbour, E.; Salehin, M.; Hutton, C.; Lázár, A. N.; Nicholls, R. J.; Rahman, M. M.

2015-12-01

A downscaled scenario development process was adopted in the context of a project seeking to understand relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. The aim was to link the concerns and priorities of relevant stakeholders with the integrated biophysical and poverty models used in the project. A 2-stage process was used to facilitate the connection between stakeholders concerns and available modelling capacity: the first to qualitatively describe what the future might look like in 2050; the second to translate these qualitative descriptions into the quantitative form required by the numerical models. An extended, modified SSP approach was adopted, with stakeholders downscaling issues identified through interviews as being priorities for the southwest of Bangladesh. Detailed qualitative futures were produced, before modellable elements were quantified in conjunction with an expert stakeholder cadre. Stakeholder input, using the methods adopted here, allows the top-down focus of the RCPs to be aligned with the bottom-up approach needed to make the SSPs appropriate at the more local scale, and also facilitates the translation of qualitative narrative scenarios into a quantitative form that lends itself to incorporation of biophysical and socio-economic indicators. The presentation will describe the downscaling process in detail, and conclude with findings regarding the importance of stakeholder involvement (and logistical considerations), balancing model capacity with expectations and recommendations on SSP refinement at local levels.

Downscaling SSPs in the GBM Delta - Integrating Science, Modelling and Stakeholders Through Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allan, Andrew; Barbour, Emily; Salehin, Mashfiqus; Munsur Rahman, Md.; Hutton, Craig; Lazar, Attila

2016-04-01

A downscaled scenario development process was adopted in the context of a project seeking to understand relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. The aim was to link the concerns and priorities of relevant stakeholders with the integrated biophysical and poverty models used in the project. A 2-stage process was used to facilitate the connection between stakeholders concerns and available modelling capacity: the first to qualitatively describe what the future might look like in 2050; the second to translate these qualitative descriptions into the quantitative form required by the numerical models. An extended, modified SSP approach was adopted, with stakeholders downscaling issues identified through interviews as being priorities for the southwest of Bangladesh. Detailed qualitative futures were produced, before modellable elements were quantified in conjunction with an expert stakeholder cadre. Stakeholder input, using the methods adopted here, allows the top-down focus of the RCPs to be aligned with the bottom-up approach needed to make the SSPs appropriate at the more local scale, and also facilitates the translation of qualitative narrative scenarios into a quantitative form that lends itself to incorporation of biophysical and socio-economic indicators. The presentation will describe the downscaling process in detail, and conclude with findings regarding the importance of stakeholder involvement (and logistical considerations), balancing model capacity with expectations and recommendations on SSP refinement at local levels.

Deployment Effects of Marin Renewable Energy Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brian Polagye; Mirko Previsic

2010-06-17

Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, marine and hydrokinetic technologies could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood, due to a lack of technical certainty.more » In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based approach to the emerging wave and tidal technology sectors in order to evaluate the impact of these technologies on the marine environment and potentially conflicting uses. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios will capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental impacts and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders onto the critical issues that need to be addressed. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory and navigational issues. The results of this study are structured into three reports: 1. Wave power scenario description 2. Tidal power scenario description 3. Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the second report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of tidal power plants deployed in Tacoma Narrows, Washington. The Narrows contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other tidal power sites and serves as a representative case study. Tidal power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize impacts, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informs the process of selecting representative tidal power devices. The selection criteria is that such devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development including Verdant Power, which has demonstrated an array of turbines in the East River of New York, Clean Current, which has demonstrated a device off Race Rocks, BC, and OpenHydro, which has demonstrated a device at the European Marine Energy Test Center and is on the verge of deploying a larger device in the Bay of Fundy. MCT demonstrated their device both at Devon (UK) and Strangford Narrows (Northern Ireland). Furthermore OpenHydro, CleanCurrent, and MCT are the three devices being installed at the Minas Passage (Canada). Environmental effects will largely scale with the size of tidal power development. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent (1) a small pilot deployment, (2) an early, small commercial deployment, and (3) a large commercial scale plant. For the three technologies and scales at the selected site, this results in a total of nine deployment scenarios outlined in the report.« less

Non-Markovian Complexity in the Quantum-to-Classical Transition

PubMed Central

Xiong, Heng-Na; Lo, Ping-Yuan; Zhang, Wei-Min; Feng, Da Hsuan; Nori, Franco

2015-01-01

The quantum-to-classical transition is due to environment-induced decoherence, and it depicts how classical dynamics emerges from quantum systems. Previously, the quantum-to-classical transition has mainly been described with memory-less (Markovian) quantum processes. Here we study the complexity of the quantum-to-classical transition through general non-Markovian memory processes. That is, the influence of various reservoirs results in a given initial quantum state evolving into one of the following four scenarios: thermal state, thermal-like state, quantum steady state, or oscillating quantum nonstationary state. In the latter two scenarios, the system maintains partial or full quantum coherence due to the strong non-Markovian memory effect, so that in these cases, the quantum-to-classical transition never occurs. This unexpected new feature provides a new avenue for the development of future quantum technologies because the remaining quantum oscillations in steady states are decoherence-free. PMID:26303002

Integrated versus stand-alone second generation ethanol production from sugarcane bagasse and trash.

PubMed

Dias, Marina O S; Junqueira, Tassia L; Cavalett, Otávio; Cunha, Marcelo P; Jesus, Charles D F; Rossell, Carlos E V; Maciel Filho, Rubens; Bonomi, Antonio

2012-01-01

Ethanol production from lignocellulosic materials is often conceived considering independent, stand-alone production plants; in the Brazilian scenario, where part of the potential feedstock (sugarcane bagasse) for second generation ethanol production is already available at conventional first generation production plants, an integrated first and second generation production process seems to be the most obvious option. In this study stand-alone second generation ethanol production from surplus sugarcane bagasse and trash is compared with conventional first generation ethanol production from sugarcane and with integrated first and second generation; simulations were developed to represent the different technological scenarios, which provided data for economic and environmental analysis. Results show that the integrated first and second generation ethanol production process from sugarcane leads to better economic results when compared with the stand-alone plant, especially when advanced hydrolysis technologies and pentoses fermentation are included. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sayers, Nicola

2011-01-01

Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

PubMed

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Combinatorial life cycle assessment to inform process design of industrial production of algal biodiesel.

PubMed

Brentner, Laura B; Eckelman, Matthew J; Zimmerman, Julie B

2011-08-15

The use of algae as a feedstock for biodiesel production is a rapidly growing industry, in the United States and globally. A life cycle assessment (LCA) is presented that compares various methods, either proposed or under development, for algal biodiesel to inform the most promising pathways for sustainable full-scale production. For this analysis, the system is divided into five distinct process steps: (1) microalgae cultivation, (2) harvesting and/or dewatering, (3) lipid extraction, (4) conversion (transesterification) into biodiesel, and (5) byproduct management. A number of technology options are considered for each process step and various technology combinations are assessed for their life cycle environmental impacts. The optimal option for each process step is selected yielding a best case scenario, comprised of a flat panel enclosed photobioreactor and direct transesterification of algal cells with supercritical methanol. For a functional unit of 10 GJ biodiesel, the best case production system yields a cumulative energy demand savings of more than 65 GJ, reduces water consumption by 585 m(3) and decreases greenhouse gas emissions by 86% compared to a base case scenario typical of early industrial practices, highlighting the importance of technological innovation in algae processing and providing guidance on promising production pathways.

Finite Element Analysis of Interaction of Laser Beam with Material in Laser Metal Powder Bed Fusion Process.

PubMed

Fu, Guang; Zhang, David Z; He, Allen N; Mao, Zhongfa; Zhang, Kaifei

2018-05-10

A deep understanding of the laser-material interaction mechanism, characterized by laser absorption, is very important in simulating the laser metal powder bed fusion (PBF) process. This is because the laser absorption of material affects the temperature distribution, which influences the thermal stress development and the final quality of parts. In this paper, a three-dimensional finite element analysis model of heat transfer taking into account the effect of material state and phase changes on laser absorption is presented to gain insight into the absorption mechanism, and the evolution of instantaneous absorptance in the laser metal PBF process. The results showed that the instantaneous absorptance was significantly affected by the time of laser radiation, as well as process parameters, such as hatch space, scanning velocity, and laser power, which were consistent with the experiment-based findings. The applicability of this model to temperature simulation was demonstrated by a comparative study, wherein the peak temperature in fusion process was simulated in two scenarios, with and without considering the effect of material state and phase changes on laser absorption, and the simulated results in the two scenarios were then compared with experimental data respectively.

Application of stochastic multiattribute analysis to assessment of single walled carbon nanotube synthesis processes.

PubMed

Canis, Laure; Linkov, Igor; Seager, Thomas P

2010-11-15

The unprecedented uncertainty associated with engineered nanomaterials greatly expands the need for research regarding their potential environmental consequences. However, decision-makers such as regulatory agencies, product developers, or other nanotechnology stakeholders may not find the results of such research directly informative of decisions intended to mitigate environmental risks. To help interpret research findings and prioritize new research needs, there is an acute need for structured decision-analytic aids that are operable in a context of extraordinary uncertainty. Whereas existing stochastic decision-analytic techniques explore uncertainty only in decision-maker preference information, this paper extends model uncertainty to technology performance. As an illustrative example, the framework is applied to the case of single-wall carbon nanotubes. Four different synthesis processes (arc, high pressure carbon monoxide, chemical vapor deposition, and laser) are compared based on five salient performance criteria. A probabilistic rank ordering of preferred processes is determined using outranking normalization and a linear-weighted sum for different weighting scenarios including completely unknown weights and four fixed-weight sets representing hypothetical stakeholder views. No single process pathway dominates under all weight scenarios, but it is likely that some inferior process technologies could be identified as low priorities for further research.

In situ medical simulation investigation of emergency department procedural sedation with randomized trial of experimental bedside clinical process guidance intervention.

PubMed

Siegel, Nathan A; Kobayashi, Leo; Dunbar-Viveiros, Jennifer A; Devine, Jeffrey; Al-Rasheed, Rakan S; Gardiner, Fenwick G; Olsson, Krister; Lai, Stella; Jones, Mark S; Dannecker, Max; Overly, Frank L; Gosbee, John W; Portelli, David C; Jay, Gregory D

2015-06-01

Patient safety during emergency department procedural sedation (EDPS) can be difficult to study. Investigators sought to delineate and experimentally assess EDPS performance and safety practices of senior-level emergency medicine residents through in situ simulation. Study sessions used 2 pilot-tested EDPS scenarios with critical action checklists, institutional forms, embedded probes, and situational awareness questionnaires. An experimental informatics system was separately developed for bedside EDPS process guidance. Postgraduate year 3 and 4 subjects completed both scenarios in randomized order; only experimental subjects were provided with the experimental system during second scenarios. Twenty-four residents were recruited into a control group (n = 12; 6.2 ± 7.4 live EDPS experience) and experimental group (n = 12; 11.3 ± 8.2 live EDPS experience [P = 0.10]). Critical actions for EDPS medication selection, induction, and adverse event recognition with resuscitation were correctly performed by most subjects. Presedation evaluations, sedation rescue preparation, equipment checks, time-outs, and documentation were frequently missed. Time-outs and postsedation assessments increased during second scenarios in the experimental group. Emergency department procedural sedation safety probe detection did not change across scenarios in either group. Situational awareness scores were 51% ± 7% for control group and 58% ± 12% for experimental group. Subjects using the experimental system completed more time-outs and scored higher Simulation EDPS Safety Composite Scores, although without comprehensive improvements in EDPS practice or safety. Study simulations delineated EDPS and assessed safety behaviors in senior emergency medicine residents, who exhibited the requisite medical knowledge base and procedural skill set but lacked some nontechnical skills that pertain to emergency department microsystem functions and patient safety. The experimental system exhibited limited impact only on in-simulation time-out compliance.

A Blueprint for the Ecological Monitoring of Australia's Oceans.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bax, N. J.; Hayes, K. R.; Dambacher, J. M.; Hosack, G. R.; Dunstan, P. K.; Fulton, E.; Thompson, P. A.; Hartog, J. R.; Hobday, A. J.; Bradford, R.; Foster, S.; Hedge, P.; Smith, D.; Marshall, C. M.

2016-02-01

Monitoring Australia's marine area is fundamental to understanding and documenting how the ocean is changing in response to human pressures. Fifty-four key ecological features (KEFs) were identified as areas of particular value to the Australian Government over the last 8 years. These were divided into six reporting groups: areas of enhanced pelagic productivity, canyons, deep seabeds, seamounts, shelf reefs and seabeds. Ecosystem models were built for 33 KEF systems that have the strongest datasets, based on a theoretical understanding of how they function. Human pressures were identified by regional specialists and combined with the KEF models to create a set of medium-term pressure scenarios for each KEF. Between four and 25 pressure scenarios were identified for each KEF. Examples of human pressures include the strengthening of the East Australian Current and shifts in ocean upwelling due to climate change, major fluctuations in pelagic fish and fur seal populations, and fishing, shipping and oil and gas activities. KEF models encompass parts of the ecosystem that have potential to be monitored as long-term indicators that increase, decrease, or remain unchanged under each pressure scenario. Suitable indicators are those that respond in predictable ways across all pressure scenarios for a KEF. Results from pressure scenarios developed to test indicators for Australia's nine enhanced pelagic productivity KEFs will be presented. Satellite observations were analysed to tease out the long-term trend in phytoplankton and ocean upwelling. The comparison of predicted and observed trends in indicators leads to an improved understanding of KEF systems and the utility of the indicators. A change in indicator is a signal that something was happening to a valued system. The prediction-observation process would explain why. This process is repeatable and can be updated as new information comes available.

Global economic-biophysical assessment of midterm scenarios for agricultural markets—biofuel policies, dietary patterns, cropland expansion, and productivity growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delzeit, Ruth; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Mauser, Wolfram

2018-02-01

Land-use decisions are made at the local level. They are influenced both by local factors and by global drivers and trends. These will most likely change over time e.g. due to political shocks, market developments or climate change. Hence, their influence should be taken into account when analysing and projecting local land-use decisions. We provide a set of mid-term scenarios of global drivers (until 2030) for use in regional and local studies on agriculture and land-use. In a participatory process, four important drivers are identified by experts from globally distributed regional studies: biofuel policies, increase in preferences for meat and dairy products in Asia, cropland expansion into uncultivated areas, and changes in agricultural productivity growth. Their impact on possible future developments of global and regional agricultural markets are analysed with a modelling framework consisting of a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop growth model. The business as usual (BAU) scenario causes production and prices of crops to rise over time. It also leads to a conversion of pasture land to cropland. Under different scenarios, global price changes range between -42 and +4% in 2030 compared to the BAU. An abolishment of biofuel targets does not significantly improve food security while an increased agricultural productivity and cropland expansion have a stronger impact on changes in food production and prices.

Use-Exposure Relationships of Pesticides for Aquatic Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Luo, Yuzhou; Spurlock, Frank; Deng, Xin; Gill, Sheryl; Goh, Kean

2011-01-01

Field-scale environmental models have been widely used in aquatic exposure assessments of pesticides. Those models usually require a large set of input parameters and separate simulations for each pesticide in evaluation. In this study, a simple use-exposure relationship is developed based on regression analysis of stochastic simulation results generated from the Pesticide Root-Zone Model (PRZM). The developed mathematical relationship estimates edge-of-field peak concentrations of pesticides from aerobic soil metabolism half-life (AERO), organic carbon-normalized soil sorption coefficient (KOC), and application rate (RATE). In a case study of California crop scenarios, the relationships explained 90–95% of the variances in the peak concentrations of dissolved pesticides as predicted by PRZM simulations for a 30-year period. KOC was identified as the governing parameter in determining the relative magnitudes of pesticide exposures in a given crop scenario. The results of model application also indicated that the effects of chemical fate processes such as partitioning and degradation on pesticide exposure were similar among crop scenarios, while the cross-scenario variations were mainly associated with the landscape characteristics, such as organic carbon contents and curve numbers. With a minimum set of input data, the use-exposure relationships proposed in this study could be used in screening procedures for potential water quality impacts from the off-site movement of pesticides. PMID:21483772

InaSAFE applications in disaster preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pranantyo, Ignatius Ryan; Fadmastuti, Mahardika; Chandra, Fredy

2015-04-01

Disaster preparedness activities aim to reduce the impact of disasters by being better prepared to respond when a disaster occurs. In order to better anticipate requirements during a disaster, contingency planning activities can be undertaken prior to a disaster based on a realistic disaster scenario. InaSAFE is a tool that can inform this process. InaSAFE is a free and open source software that estimates the impact to people and infrastructure from potential hazard scenarios. By using InaSAFE, disaster managers can develop scenarios of disaster impacts (people and infrastructures affected) to inform their contingency plan and emergency response operation plan. While InaSAFE provides the software framework exposure data and hazard data are needed as inputs to run this software. Then InaSAFE can be used to forecast the impact of the hazard scenario to the exposure data. InaSAFE outputs include estimates of the number of people, buildings and roads are affected, list of minimum needs (rice and clean water), and response checklist. InaSAFE is developed by Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) and the Australian Government, through the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction (AIFDR), in partnership with the World Bank - Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). This software has been used in many parts of Indonesia, including Padang, Maumere, Jakarta, and Slamet Mountain for emergency response and contingency planning.

Influence of regional climate change on meteorological characteristics and their subsequent effect on ozone dispersion in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Fang-Yi; Jian, Shan-Ping; Yang, Zhih-Min; Yen, Ming-Cheng; Tsuang, Ben-Jei

2015-02-01

The objective of this study is to understand the influence of regional climate change on local meteorological conditions and their subsequent effect on local ozone (O3) dispersion in Taiwan. The 33-year NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 (NNR2) data set (1979-2011) was analyzed to understand the variations in regional-scale atmospheric conditions in East Asia and the western North Pacific. To save computational processing time, two scenarios representative of past (1979-86) and current (2004-11) atmospheric conditions were selected but only targeting the autumn season (September, October and November) when the O3 concentrations were at high levels. Numerical simulations were performed using weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for the past and current scenarios individually but only for the month of October because of limited computational resources. Analysis of NNR2 data exhibited increased air temperature, weakened Asian continental anticyclone, enhanced northeasterly monsoonal flow, and a deepened low-pressure system forming near Taiwan. With enhanced evaporation from oceans along with a deepened low-pressure system, precipitation amounts increased in Taiwan in the current scenario. As demonstrated in the WRF simulation, the land surface physical process responded to the enhanced precipitation resulting in damper soil conditions, and reduced ground temperatures that in turn restricted the development of boundary layer height. The weakened land-sea breeze flow was simulated in the current scenario. With reduced dispersion capability, air pollutants would tend to accumulate near the emission source leading to a degradation of air quality in this region. The conditions would be even worse in southwestern Taiwan due to the fact that stagnant wind fields would occur more frequently in the current scenario. On the other hand, in northern Taiwan, the simulated O3 concentrations are lower during the day in the current scenario due to the enhanced cloud conditions and reduced solar radiation.

Regional landslide hazard assesment for Kulon Progo Area, Central Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnawati, D.

2009-12-01

Karanganyar region is situated in a dynamic volcanic region in Java Island, where rain-induced landslides are frequent and widespread. Shallow-rapid earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common landslide type occurring on the steep slope and had resulted in major casualties, whilst deep soil creeping is more prominant on the gentle slope which creat a lot of damages on the houses and infrastructure. A landslide hazard assessment had been conducted to support the landslide mitigation program in this region. Such assessment was carried out by applying a semi qualitative approach (Analytical Hierarchical Process) where a weighting system was applied to assess the level of importance of each controlling parameter as suggested by Saaty (1980). Existing conditions of each controlling parameters were also assessed based on relative hierarchical system by applying scoring. Geographical Information System was used as a tool in such analysis and mapping process. The isohyet map was also prepared from statistical and spatial analyses on rain fall data. Finally, two different scenarios of landslide hazard maps were established, i.e. the scenario without any rainfall (Scenario 1) and with the reainfall (Scenario 2). It was found that the most susceptible zone of landslide was localised on the steep slope (with the inclination beyond 45o ) of jointed andesitic breccia, which was covered by thinck silty clay and situated close to the stream zone (Scenario 1). However from the hazard map and analysis on scenario 2, it can be identified that the susceptible zone expanded larger due to the rainfall, covering most region of the west-slope area of Lawu Volcano. Therefore, it can be concluded that the rainfall intensity is very crucial to induce the landslide not only in the most susceptible zone, but also in the larger area which also include the less susceptbile zone. This findings is also crucial to support the development of landslide spatial-early-warning system in the region.

New land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazonia: how to reach a sustainable future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguiar, A. P. D.; Vieira, I.; Toledo, P.; Araujo, R.; Coelho, A.; Pinho, P.; Assis, T.; Dalla-Nora, E. L.; Kawakami Savaget, E.; Batistella, M.

2014-12-01

Following an intense deforestation process initiated in the 1960s, clear-cut deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring and control systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Although regional social indicators have also slightly improved, society remains unequal and violent, both in urban and rural areas. Furthermore, the combined results of the fall of deforestation and the increased economic importance of the agribusiness sector have led to the political weakening of the so-called socio-environmental model. Thus, the current situation indicates a future of low (clear-cut) carbon emissions and low social conditions. On the other hand, other threats remain, including forest degradation derived from illegal logging and forest fires. There is also considerable uncertainty about the fate of the remaining forest areas as multiple forces can contribute to the return of high deforestation, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We present the results of a participatory scenario process, in which we discussed the future of the region until 2050 combining normative and exploratory approaches. We include an ideal "Sustainability" scenario (Scenario A) in which we envision major socioeconomic, institutional and environmental achievements. Scenario B stays in the "Middle of the road", in which the society maintains some of the positive environmental trends of the last decade, but not reversing the structural situation of social inequities. Scenario C is a pessimistic vision, named "Fragmentation" with high deforestation rates and low social development. The goal of the work was twofold: (a) to propose a method to enrich the discussion among different private and governmental stakeholders on how to build a trajectory towards sustainability; (b) to support the parameterization of spatially-explicit LUCC models in the scope of the AMAZALERT project.

Proceedings of the Lunar Materials Technology Symposium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

The meeting was organized around a possible lunar outpost scenario, featuring industrial technologies, systems, and components applicable to the extraction, processing, and fabrication of local materials. Acknowledged space resources experts as well as investigators from outside the field whose knowledge could be applied to space development activities were brought together. Presentations came from a variety of specialists in fields such as minerals processing, environmental control, and communications. The sessions of the symposium were divided into the following areas: resource characterization, energy management, materials processing, environment control, and automation and communications.

Naturalistic Decision Making For Power System Operators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin; Robinson, Marck

2009-06-23

Abstract: Motivation -- As indicated by the Blackout of 2003, the North American interconnected electric system is vulnerable to cascading outages and widespread blackouts. Investigations of large scale outages often attribute the causes to the three T’s: Trees, Training and Tools. A systematic approach has been developed to document and understand the mental processes that an expert power system operator uses when making critical decisions. The approach has been developed and refined as part of a capability demonstration of a high-fidelity real-time power system simulator under normal and emergency conditions. To examine naturalistic decision making (NDM) processes, transcripts of operator-to-operatormore » conversations are analyzed to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. Findings/Design -- The results of the study indicate that we can map the Situation Awareness Level of the operators at each point in the scenario. We can also identify clearly what mental models and mental simulations are being performed at different points in the scenario. As a result of this research we expect that we can identify improved training methods and improved analytical and visualization tools for power system operators. Originality/Value -- The research applies for the first time, the concepts of Recognition Primed Decision Making, Situation Awareness Levels and Cognitive Task Analysis to training of electric power system operators. Take away message -- The NDM approach provides an ideal framework for systematic training management and mitigation to accelerate learning in team-based training scenarios with high-fidelity power grid simulators.« less

The Use of Regulatory Air Quality Models to Develop Successful Ozone Attainment Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canty, T. P.; Salawitch, R. J.; Dickerson, R. R.; Ring, A.; Goldberg, D. L.; He, H.; Anderson, D. C.; Vinciguerra, T.

2015-12-01

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently proposed lowering the 8-hr ozone standard to between 65-70 ppb. Not all regions of the U.S. are in attainment of the current 75 ppb standard and it is expected that many regions currently in attainment will not meet the future, lower surface ozone standard. Ozone production is a nonlinear function of emissions, biological processes, and weather. Federal and state agencies rely on regulatory air quality models such as the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) to test ozone precursor emission reduction strategies that will bring states into compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). We will describe various model scenarios that simulate how future limits on emission of ozone precursors (i.e. NOx and VOCs) from sources such as power plants and vehicles will affect air quality. These scenarios are currently being developed by states required to submit a State Implementation Plan to the EPA. Projections from these future case scenarios suggest that strategies intended to control local ozone may also bring upwind states into attainment of the new NAAQS. Ground based, aircraft, and satellite observations are used to ensure that air quality models accurately represent photochemical processes within the troposphere. We will highlight some of the improvements made to the CMAQ and CAMx model framework based on our analysis of NASA observations obtained by the OMI instrument on the Aura satellite and by the DISCOVER-AQ field campaign.

75 FR 54627 - ICLUS v1.3 User's Manual: ArcGIS Tools and Datasets for Modeling U.S. Housing Density Growth

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-08

... Climate and Land Use Scenarios, a project which is described in the 2009 EPA Report, ``Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing- Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines.'' These scenarios are... economic development, which are used by climate change modelers to develop projections of future climate...

A High-Fidelity Virtual Environment for the Study of Paranoia

PubMed Central

Broome, Matthew R.; Zányi, Eva; Selmanovic, Elmedin; Czanner, Silvester; Birchwood, Max; Chalmers, Alan; Singh, Swaran P.

2013-01-01

Psychotic disorders carry social and economic costs for sufferers and society. Recent evidence highlights the risk posed by urban upbringing and social deprivation in the genesis of paranoia and psychosis. Evidence based psychological interventions are often not offered because of a lack of therapists. Virtual reality (VR) environments have been used to treat mental health problems. VR may be a way of understanding the aetiological processes in psychosis and increasing psychotherapeutic resources for its treatment. We developed a high-fidelity virtual reality scenario of an urban street scene to test the hypothesis that virtual urban exposure is able to generate paranoia to a comparable or greater extent than scenarios using indoor scenes. Participants (n = 32) entered the VR scenario for four minutes, after which time their degree of paranoid ideation was assessed. We demonstrated that the virtual reality scenario was able to elicit paranoia in a nonclinical, healthy group and that an urban scene was more likely to lead to higher levels of paranoia than a virtual indoor environment. We suggest that this study offers evidence to support the role of exposure to factors in the urban environment in the genesis and maintenance of psychotic experiences and symptoms. The realistic high-fidelity street scene scenario may offer a useful tool for therapists. PMID:24455255

Programming in a proposed 9X distributed Ada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waldrop, Raymond S.; Volz, Richard A.; Goldsack, Stephen J.; Holzbach-Valero, A. A.

1991-01-01

The studies of the proposed Ada 9X constructs for distribution, now referred to as AdaPT are reported. The goals for this time period were to revise the chosen example scenario and to begin studying about how the proposed constructs might be implemented. The example scenario chosen is the Submarine Combat Information Center (CIC) developed by IBM for the Navy. The specification provided by IBM was preliminary and had several deficiencies. To address these problems, some changes to the scenario specification were made. Some of the more important changes include: (1) addition of a system database management function; (2) addition of a fourth processing unit to the standard resources; (3) addition of an operator console interface function; and (4) removal of the time synchronization function. To implement the CIC scenario in AdaPT, the decided strategy were publics, partitions, and nodes. The principle purpose for implementing the CIC scenario was to demonstrate how the AdaPT constructs interact with the program structure. While considering ways that the AdaPt constructs might be translated to Ada 83, it was observed that the partition construct could reasonably be modeled as an abstract data type. Although this gives a useful method of modeling partitions, it does not at all address the configuration aspects on the node construct.

A high-fidelity virtual environment for the study of paranoia.

PubMed

Broome, Matthew R; Zányi, Eva; Hamborg, Thomas; Selmanovic, Elmedin; Czanner, Silvester; Birchwood, Max; Chalmers, Alan; Singh, Swaran P

2013-01-01

Psychotic disorders carry social and economic costs for sufferers and society. Recent evidence highlights the risk posed by urban upbringing and social deprivation in the genesis of paranoia and psychosis. Evidence based psychological interventions are often not offered because of a lack of therapists. Virtual reality (VR) environments have been used to treat mental health problems. VR may be a way of understanding the aetiological processes in psychosis and increasing psychotherapeutic resources for its treatment. We developed a high-fidelity virtual reality scenario of an urban street scene to test the hypothesis that virtual urban exposure is able to generate paranoia to a comparable or greater extent than scenarios using indoor scenes. Participants (n = 32) entered the VR scenario for four minutes, after which time their degree of paranoid ideation was assessed. We demonstrated that the virtual reality scenario was able to elicit paranoia in a nonclinical, healthy group and that an urban scene was more likely to lead to higher levels of paranoia than a virtual indoor environment. We suggest that this study offers evidence to support the role of exposure to factors in the urban environment in the genesis and maintenance of psychotic experiences and symptoms. The realistic high-fidelity street scene scenario may offer a useful tool for therapists.

Human health risk assessment case study: an abandoned metal smelter site in Poland.

PubMed

Wcisło, Eleonora; Ioven, Dawn; Kucharski, Rafal; Szdzuj, Jerzy

2002-05-01

United States Environmental Protection Agency methodologies for human health risk assessment (HRA) were applied in a Brownfields Demonstration Project on the Warynski smelter site (WSS), an abandoned industrial site at Piekary Slaskie town, Upper Silesia, Poland. The HRA included the baseline risk assessment (BRA) and the development of risk-based preliminary remedial goals (RBPRGs). The HRA focused on surface area covered with waste materials, which were evaluated with regard to the potential risks they may pose to humans. Cadmium, copper, iron, manganese, lead, and zinc were proposed as the contaminants of potential concern (COPCs) at WSS based on archive data on chemical composition of waste located on WSS. For the defined future land use patterns, the industrial (I) and recreational (II) exposure scenarios were assumed and evaluated. The combined hazard index for all COPCs was 3.1E+00 for Scenario I and 3.2E+00 for Scenario II. Regarding potential carcinogenic risks associated with the inhalation route, only cadmium was a contributor, with risks of 1.6E-06 and 2.6E-07 for Scenario I and Scenario II, respectively. The results of the BRA indicated that the potential health risks at WSS were mainly associated with waste material exposure to cadmium (industrial and recreational scenarios) and lead (industrial scenario). RBPRGs calculated under the industrial scenario were 1.17E+03 and 1.62E+03 mg/kg for cadmium and lead, respectively. The RBPRG for cadmium was 1.18E+03 mg/kg under the recreational scenario. The BRA results, as well as RBCs, are comparable for both scenarios, so it is impossible to prioritize land use patterns for WSS based on these results. For choosing a future land use pattern or an appropriate redevelopment option, different factors would be decisive in the decision-making process, e.g., social, market needs, technical feasibility and costs of redevelopment actions or acceptance of local community.

Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.; Groff, Loren; Newman, Richard L.; Foster, John V.; Crider, Dennis H.; Klyde, David H.; Huston, A. McCall

2014-01-01

Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se; KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications; Ekener, Elisabeth

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach,more » and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.« less

Capturing Essential Information to Achieve Safe Interoperability.

PubMed

Weininger, Sandy; Jaffe, Michael B; Rausch, Tracy; Goldman, Julian M

2017-01-01

In this article, we describe the role of "clinical scenario" information to assure the safety of interoperable systems, as well as the system's ability to deliver the requisite clinical functionality to improve clinical care. Described are methods and rationale for capturing the clinical needs, workflow, hazards, and device interactions in the clinical environment. Key user (clinician and clinical engineer) needs and system requirements can be derived from this information, therefore, improving the communication from clinicians to medical device and information technology system developers. This methodology is intended to assist the health care community, including researchers, standards developers, regulators, and manufacturers, by providing clinical definition to support requirements in the systems engineering process, particularly those focusing on development of Integrated Clinical Environments described in standard ASTM F2761. Our focus is on identifying and documenting relevant interactions and medical device capabilities within the system using a documentation tool called medical device interface data sheets and mitigating hazardous situations related to workflow, product usability, data integration, and the lack of effective medical device-health information technology system integration to achieve safe interoperability. Portions of the analysis of a clinical scenario for a "patient-controlled analgesia safety interlock" are provided to illustrate the method. Collecting better clinical adverse event information and proposed solutions can help identify opportunities to improve current device capabilities and interoperability and support a learning health system to improve health care delivery. Developing and analyzing clinical scenarios are the first steps in creating solutions to address vexing patient safety problems and enable clinical innovation. A Web-based research tool for implementing a means of acquiring and managing this information, the Clinical Scenario Repository™ (MD PnP Program), is described.

[Epistemic injustice during the medical education process in the hospital context].

PubMed

Consejo-Y Chapela, Carolina; Viesca-Treviño, Carlos Alfonso

2017-01-01

The educational model adopted by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) Faculty of Medicine is constructivist; it is a model based on competence development. It aims to provide learning environments that incorporate real activities (it helps the students to develop social negotiation skills, as part of their integral learning; it encourages them to take a critical and reflexive approach; and it is also a student-centered model). However, many challenges arise when this model is implemented in the context of hospital environments. Therefore, our aim was to analyse the hospital as an hermeneutical community and as a power relations scenario, contrary to the constructivist model. In the analysis of a conflict between a chief of a medical department and an undergraduated medical intern, we use Miranda Fricker's categories discriminatory epistemic injustice, and testimonial injustice, as well as Foucault's power relationships and knowledge. The program implementation is placed in the context of power relations and different disciplinary methods that could affect the training process of the students, whose educational background belongs to the constructivist model. This in part is due to the existence of informal normative structures that are hidden in the process of medical knowledge construction at the hospital scenario. Practices of epistemic discriminatory injustice in the hospital environment increase vulnerability conditions for medical students in their education process.

Modeling soil conservation, water conservation and their tradeoffs: a case study in Beijing.

PubMed

Bai, Yang; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Zheng, Hua; Li, Xiaoma; Zhuang, Changwei; Jiang, Bo

2012-01-01

Natural ecosystems provide society with important goods and services. With the rapid increase in human populations and excessive utilization of natural resources, humans frequently enhance the production of some services at the expense of the others. Although the need for tradeoffs between conservation and development is urgent, the lack of efficient methods to assess such tradeoffs has impeded progress. Three land use strategy scenarios (development scenario, plan trend scenario and conservation scenario) were created to forecast potential changes in ecosystem services from 2007 to 2050 in Beijing, China. GIS-based techniques were used to map spatial and temporal distribution and changes in ecosystem services for each scenario. The provision of ecosystem services differed spatially, with significant changes being associated with different scenarios. Scenario analysis of water yield (as average annual yield) and soil retention (as retention rate per unit area) for the period 2007 to 2050 indicated that the highest values for these parameters were predicted for the forest habitat under all three scenarios. Annual yield/retention of forest, shrub, and grassland ranked the highest in the conservation scenario. Total water yield and soil retention increased in the conservation scenario and declined dramatically in the other two scenarios, especially the development scenario. The conservation scenario was the optimal land use strategy, resulting in the highest soil retention and water yield. Our study suggests that the evaluation and visualization of ecosystem services can effectively assist in understanding the tradeoffs between conservation and development. Results of this study have implications for planning and monitoring future management of natural capital and ecosystem services, which can be integrated into land use decision-making.

Development of a Flexible Framework for Hypersonic Navier-Stoke Space Shuttle Orbiter Meshes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alter, Stephen J.; Reuthler, James J.; McDaniel, Ryan D.

2004-01-01

A flexible framework constructing block structured volume grids for hypersonic Navier-Strokes flow simulations was developed for the analysis of the Shuttle Orbiter Columbia. The development of the framework, which was partially basedon the requirements of the primary flow solvers used resulted in an ability to directly correlate solutions contributed by participating groups on a common surface mesh. A foundation was built through the assessment of differences between differnt solvers, which provided confidence for independent assessment of other damage scenarios by team members. The framework draws on the experience of NASA Langley and NASA Ames Research Centers in structured grid generation, and consists of a grid generation, and consist of a grid generation process implemented through a division of responsibilities. The nominal division of labor consisted of NASA Johnson Space Center coordinating the damage scenarios to be analyzed by the Aerothermodynamics Columbia Accident Investigation (ACAI) team, Ames developing the surface grids that described the computational volume about the Orbiter, and Langley improving grid quality of Ames generated data and constructing the final computational volume grids. Distributing the work among the participant in th ACAI team resulted in significantl less time required to construct complete meshes than possible by any individual participant. The approach demonstrated that the One-NASA grid generation team could sustain the demand of for five new meshes to explore new damage scenarios within an aggressive time-line.

Information processing of an acquaintance rape scenario among high- and low-dissociating college women.

PubMed

Sandberg, D A; Lynn, S J; Matorin, A I

2001-07-01

To assess the impact of dissociation on information processing, 66 college women with high and low levels of trait dissociation were studied with regard to how they unitized videotape segments of an acquaintance rape scenario (actual assault not shown) and a nonthreatening control scenario. Unitization is a paradigm that measures how actively people process stimuli by recording how many times they press a button to indicate that they have seen a significant or meaningful event. Trait dissociation was negatively correlated with participants' unitization of the acquaintance rape videotape, unitization was positively correlated with danger cue identification, and state dissociation was negatively correlated with dangerousness ratings.

Assessment of the impact of oxidation processes on indoor air pollution using the new time-resolved INCA-Indoor model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendez, Maxence; Blond, Nadège; Blondeau, Patrice; Schoemaecker, Coralie; Hauglustaine, Didier A.

2015-12-01

INCA-Indoor, a new indoor air quality (IAQ) model, has been developed to simulate the concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxidants considering indoor air specific processes such as: emission, ventilation, surface interactions (sorption, deposition, uptake). Based on the detailed version of SAPRC-07 chemical mechanism, INCA-Indoor is able to analyze the contribution of the production and loss pathways of key chemical species (VOCs, oxidants, radical species). The potential of this model has been tested through three complementary analyses: a comparison with the most detailed IAQ model found in the literature, focusing on oxidant species; realistic scenarios covering a large range of conditions, involving variable OH sources like HONO; and the investigation of alkenes ozonolysis under a large range of indoor conditions that can increase OH and HO2 concentrations. Simulations have been run changing nitrous acid (HONO) concentrations, NOx levels, photolysis rates and ventilation rates, showing that HONO can be the main source of indoor OH. Cleaning events using products containing D-limonene have been simulated at different periods of the day. These scenarios show that HOX concentrations can significantly increase in specific conditions. An assessment of the impact of indoor chemistry on the potential formation of secondary species such as formaldehyde (HCHO) and acetaldehyde (CH3CHO) has been carried out under various room configuration scenarios and a study of the HOx budget for different realistic scenarios has been performed. It has been shown that, under the simulation conditions, formaldehyde can be affected by oxidant concentrations via chemical production which can account for more than 10% of the total production, representing 6.5 ppb/h. On the other hand, acetaldehyde production is affected more by oxidation processes. When the photolysis rates are high, chemical processes are responsible for about 50% of the total production of acetaldehyde (9 ppb/h).

Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

2013-12-01

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences from AgMIP Regional Teams, and from the project on Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest, are used to discuss how the RAPs procedures can be further developed and improved, and how RAPs can help engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results.

Interactive Learning Environment: Web-based Virtual Hydrological Simulation System using Augmented and Immersive Reality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.

2014-12-01

Recent developments in internet technologies make it possible to manage and visualize large data on the web. Novel visualization techniques and interactive user interfaces allow users to create realistic environments, and interact with data to gain insight from simulations and environmental observations. The hydrological simulation system is a web-based 3D interactive learning environment for teaching hydrological processes and concepts. The simulation systems provides a visually striking platform with realistic terrain information, and water simulation. Students can create or load predefined scenarios, control environmental parameters, and evaluate environmental mitigation alternatives. The web-based simulation system provides an environment for students to learn about the hydrological processes (e.g. flooding and flood damage), and effects of development and human activity in the floodplain. The system utilizes latest web technologies and graphics processing unit (GPU) for water simulation and object collisions on the terrain. Users can access the system in three visualization modes including virtual reality, augmented reality, and immersive reality using heads-up display. The system provides various scenarios customized to fit the age and education level of various users. This presentation provides an overview of the web-based flood simulation system, and demonstrates the capabilities of the system for various visualization and interaction modes.

GIS-based integrated assessment and decision support system for land use planning in consideration of carbon sequestration benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Chen, J. M.; Li, Manchun; Ju, Weimin

2007-06-01

As the major eligible land use activities in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), afforestation and reforestation offer opportunities and potential economic benefits for developing countries to participate in carbon-trade in the potential international carbon (C) sink markets. However, the design and selection of appropriate afforestation and reforestation locations in CDM are complex processes which need integrated assessment (IA) of C sequestration (CS) potential, environmental effects, and socio-economic impacts. This paper promotes the consideration of CS benefits in local land use planning and presents a GIS-based integrated assessment and spatial decision support system (IA-SDSS) to support decision-making on 'where' and 'how' to afforest. It integrates an Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Model (InTEC) and a GIS platform for modeling regional long-term CS potential and assessment of geo-referenced land use criteria including CS consequence, and produces ranking of plantation schemes with different tree species using the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Three land use scenarios are investigated: (i) traditional land use planning criteria without C benefits, (ii) land use for CS with low C price, and (iii) land use for CS with high price. Different scenarios and consequences will influence the weights of tree-species selection in the AHP decision process.

Hydroclimatic Change in the Congo River Basin: Past, Present and Future169

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloysius, N. R.

2016-12-01

Tropical regions provide habitat for the world's most diverse fauna and flora, sequester more atmospheric carbon and provide livelihood for millions of people. The hydrological cycle provides vital linkages for maintaining these ecosystem functions, yet, the understanding of its spatiotemporal variability is limited. Research on the hydrological cycle of the Congo River Basin (CRB), which encompasses the second largest rainforests, has been largely ignored. Global Climate Models (GCM) show limited skills in simulating CRB's climate and their future projections vary widely. Yet, GCMs provide the most plausible scenarios of future climate, based upon which changes in hydrologic fluxes can be predicted with the aid hydrological models. In order to address the gaps in knowledge and to highlight the research needs, we i) developed a spatially explicit hydrological model suitable for describing key hydrological processes, ii) evaluated the performance of GCMs in simulating precipitation and temperature in the region, iii) developed a set of climate change scenarios for the CRB and iv) developed a simplified modeling framework to quantify water management options for rain-fed agriculture with the objective of achieving the triple goals of sustainable development: food security, poverty alleviation and ecosystem conservation. The hydrology model, which was validated with observed stream flows at 50 locations, satisfactorily characterizes spatiotemporal variability of key fluxes. Our evaluation of 25 GCM outputs reveal that many GCMs poorly simulate regional precipitation. We implemented a statistical bias-correction method to develop precipitation and temperature projections for two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. These climate forcings were, then, used to drive the hydrology model. Our results show that the near-term projections are not affected by emission scenarios. However, towards the mid-21st century, projections are emission scenario dependent. Available freshwater resources are projected to increase in the CRB, except in the semiarid southeast. Our findings have wider implications for climate change assessment and water resource management, because the region, with high population growth and limited capacity to adapt, are primary targets of land and water grabs. 155

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

Evidence and future scenarios of a low-carbon energy transition in Central America: a case study in Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barido, Diego Ponce de Leon; Johnston, Josiah; Moncada, Maria V.; Callaway, Duncan; Kammen, Daniel M.

2015-10-01

The global carbon emissions budget over the next decades depends critically on the choices made by fast-growing emerging economies. Few studies exist, however, that develop country-specific energy system integration insights that can inform emerging economies in this decision-making process. High spatial- and temporal-resolution power system planning is central to evaluating decarbonization scenarios, but obtaining the required data and models can be cost prohibitive, especially for researchers in low, lower-middle income economies. Here, we use Nicaragua as a case study to highlight the importance of high-resolution open access data and modeling platforms to evaluate fuel-switching strategies and their resulting cost of power under realistic technology, policy, and cost scenarios (2014-2030). Our results suggest that Nicaragua could cost-effectively achieve a low-carbon grid (≥80%, based on non-large hydro renewable energy generation) by 2030 while also pursuing multiple development objectives. Regional cooperation (balancing) enables the highest wind and solar generation (18% and 3% by 2030, respectively), at the least cost (US127 MWh-1). Potentially risky resources (geothermal and hydropower) raise system costs but do not significantly hinder decarbonization. Oil price sensitivity scenarios suggest renewable energy to be a more cost-effective long-term investment than fuel oil, even under the assumption of prevailing cheap oil prices. Nicaragua’s options illustrate the opportunities and challenges of power system decarbonization for emerging economies, and the key role that open access data and modeling platforms can play in helping develop low-carbon transition pathways.

The Integrated Landscape Modeling partnership - Current status and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.; Scherff, Eric J.

2016-01-28

The Integrated Landscape Modeling (ILM) partnership is an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to identify, evaluate, and develop models to quantify services derived from ecosystems, with a focus on wetland ecosystems and conservation effects. The ILM partnership uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modeling platform to facilitate regional quantifications of ecosystem services under various scenarios of land-cover change that are representative of differing conservation program and practice implementation scenarios. To date, the ILM InVEST partnership has resulted in capabilities to quantify carbon stores, amphibian habitat, plant-community diversity, and pollination services. Work to include waterfowl and grassland bird habitat quality is in progress. Initial InVEST modeling has been focused on the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States; future efforts might encompass other regions as data availability and knowledge increase as to how functions affecting ecosystem services differ among regions.The ILM partnership is also developing the capability for field-scale process-based modeling of depressional wetland ecosystems using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model. Progress was made towards the development of techniques to use the APEX model for closed-basin depressional wetlands of the PPR, in addition to the open systems that the model was originally designed to simulate. The ILM partnership has matured to the stage where effects of conservation programs and practices on multiple ecosystem services can now be simulated in selected areas. Future work might include the continued development of modeling capabilities, as well as development and evaluation of differing conservation program and practice scenarios of interest to partner agencies including the USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). When combined, the ecosystem services modeling capabilities of InVEST and the process-based abilities of the APEX model should provide complementary information needed to meet USDA and the Department of the Interior information needs.

Environmental and economic life cycle assessment for sewage sludge treatment processes in Japan.

PubMed

Hong, Jinglan; Hong, Jingmin; Otaki, Masahiro; Jolliet, Olivier

2009-02-01

Life cycle assessment for sewage sludge treatment was carried out by estimating the environmental and economic impacts of the six alternative scenarios most often used in Japan: dewatering, composting, drying, incineration, incinerated ash melting and dewatered sludge melting, each with or without digestion. Three end-of-life treatments were also studied: landfilling, agricultural application and building material application. The results demonstrate that sewage sludge digestion can reduce the environmental load and cost through reduced dry matter volume. The global warming potential (GWP) generated from incineration and melting processes can be significantly reduced through the reuse of waste heat for electricity and/or heat generation. Equipment production in scenarios except dewatering has an important effect on GWP, whereas the contribution of construction is negligible. In addition, the results show that the dewatering scenario has the highest impact on land use and cost, the drying scenario has the highest impact on GWP and acidification, and the incinerated ash melting scenario has the highest impact on human toxicity due to re-emissions of heavy metals from incinerated ash in the melting unit process. On the contrary, the dewatering, composting and incineration scenarios generate the lowest impact on human toxicity, land use and acidification, respectively, and the incinerated ash melting scenario has the lowest impact on GWP and cost. Heavy metals released from atmospheric effluents generated the highest human toxicity impact, with the effect of dioxin emissions being significantly lower. This study proved that the dewatered sludge melting scenario is an environmentally optimal and economically affordable method.

Policy Model of Sustainable Infrastructure Development (Case Study : Bandarlampung City, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persada, C.; Sitorus, S. R. P.; Marimin; Djakapermana, R. D.

2018-03-01

Infrastructure development does not only affect the economic aspect, but also social and environmental, those are the main dimensions of sustainable development. Many aspects and actors involved in urban infrastructure development requires a comprehensive and integrated policy towards sustainability. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate an infrastructure development policy that considers various dimensions of sustainable development. The main objective of this research is to formulate policy of sustainable infrastructure development. In this research, urban infrastructure covers transportation, water systems (drinking water, storm water, wastewater), green open spaces and solid waste. This research was conducted in Bandarlampung City. This study use a comprehensive modeling, namely the Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) with Rapid Appraisal of Infrastructure (Rapinfra), it uses of Analytic Network Process (ANP) and it uses system dynamics model. The findings of the MDS analysis showed that the status of Bandarlampung City infrastructure sustainability is less sustainable. The ANP analysis produces 8 main indicators of the most influential in the development of sustainable infrastructure. The system dynamics model offered 4 scenarios of sustainable urban infrastructure policy model. The best scenario was implemented into 3 policies consist of: the integrated infrastructure management, the population control, and the local economy development.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The ICLUS report describes the methods used to develop land-use scenarios by decade from the year 2000 to 2100 that are consistent with these storylines.

Techno-economic and environmental assessment of biogas production from banana peel (Musa paradisiaca) in a biorefinery concept.

PubMed

Martínez-Ruano, Jimmy Anderson; Caballero-Galván, Ashley Sthefanía; Restrepo-Serna, Daissy Lorena; Cardona, Carlos Ariel

2018-04-07

Two scenarios for the biogas production using Banana Peel as raw material were evaluated. The first scenario involves the stand-alone production of biogas and the second scenario includes the biogas production together with other products under biorefinery concept. In both scenarios, the influence of the production scale on the process economy was assessed and feasibility limits were defined. For this purpose, the mass and energy balances were established using the software Aspen Plus along with kinetic models reported in the literature. The economic and environmental analysis of the process was performed considering Colombian economic conditions. As a result, it was found that different process scales showed great potential for biogas production. Thus, plants with greater capacity have a greater economic benefit than those with lower capacity. However, this benefit leads to high-energy consumption and greater environmental impact.

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-12-31

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example.more » The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.« less

Using the Small Ruminant Nutrition System to develop and evaluate an alternative approach to estimating the dry matter intake of goats when accounting for ruminal fiber stratification.

PubMed

Regadas Filho, J G L; Tedeschi, L O; Cannas, A; Vieira, R A M; Rodrigues, M T

2014-11-01

The first objective of this research was to assess the ability of the Small Ruminant Nutrition System (SRNS) mechanistic model to predict metabolizable energy intake (MEI) and milk yield (MY) when using a heterogeneous fiber pool scenario (GnG1), compared with a traditional, homogeneous scenario (G1). The second objective was to evaluate an alternative approach to estimating the dry matter intake (DMI) of goats to be used in the SRNS model. The GnG1 scenario considers an age-dependent fractional transference rate for fiber particles from the first ruminal fiber pool (raft) to an escapable pool (λr), and that this second ruminal fiber pool (i.e., escapable pool) follows an age-independent fractional escape rate for fiber particles (ke). Scenario G1 adopted only a single fractional passage rate (kp). All parameters were estimated individually by using equations published in the literature, except for 2 passage rate equations in the G1 scenario: 1 developed with sheep data (G1-S) and another developed with goat data (G1-G). The alternative approach to estimating DMI was based on an optimization process using a series of dietary constraints. The DMI, MEI, and MY estimated for the GnG1 and G1 scenarios were compared with the results of an independent dataset (n=327) that contained information regarding DMI, MEI, MY, and milk and dietary compositions. The evaluation of the scenarios was performed using the coefficient of determination (R(2)) between the observed and predicted values, mean bias (MB), bias correction factor (Cb), and concordance correlation coefficient. The MEI estimated by the GnG1 scenario yielded precise and accurate values (R(2) = 082; MB = 0.21 Mcal/d; Cb = 0.98) similar to those of the G1-S (R(2) = 0.85; MB = 0.10 Mcal/d; Cb=0.99) and G1-G (R(2) = 0.84; MB = 0.18 Mcal/d; Cb = 0.98) scenarios. The results were also similar for the MY, but a substantial MB was found as follows: GnG1 (R(2) = 0.74; MB = 0.70 kg/d; Cb = 0.79), G1-S (R(2) = 0.71; MB = 0.58 kg/d(1); Cb = 0.85) and G1-G (R(2) = 0.71; MB = 0.65 kg/d; Cb = 0.82). The alternative approach for DMI prediction provided better results with the G1-G scenario (R(2)=0.88; MB = -71.67 g/d; Cb = 0.98). We concluded that the GnG1 scenario is valid within mechanistic models such as the SRNS and that the alternative approach for estimating DMI is reasonable and can be used in diet formulations for goats. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A streamlined sustainability assessment tool for improved decision making in the urban water industry.

PubMed

Schulz, Matthias; Short, Michael D; Peters, Gregory M

2012-01-01

Water supply is a key consideration in sustainable urban planning. Ideally, detailed quantitative sustainability assessments are undertaken during the planning stage to inform the decision-making process. In reality, however, the significant time and cost associated with undertaking such detailed environmental and economic assessments is often cited as a barrier to wider implementation of these key decision support tools, particularly for decisions made at the local or regional government level. In an attempt to overcome this barrier of complexity, 4 water service providers in Melbourne, Australia, funded the development of a publicly available streamlined Environmental Sustainability Assessment Tool, which is aimed at a wide range of decision makers to assist them in broadening the type and number of water servicing options that can be considered for greenfield or backlog developments. The Environmental Sustainability Assessment Tool consists of a simple user interface and draws on life cycle inventory data to allow for rapid estimation of the environmental and economic performance of different water servicing scenarios. Scenario options can then be further prioritized by means of an interactive multicriteria analysis. The intent of this article is to identify the key issues to be considered in a streamlined sustainability assessment tool for the urban water industry, and to demonstrate the feasibility of generating accurate life cycle assessments and life cycle costings, using such a tool. We use a real-life case study example consisting of 3 separate scenarios for a planned urban development to show that this kind of tool can emulate life cycle assessments and life cycle costings outcomes obtained through more detailed studies. This simplified approach is aimed at supporting "sustainability thinking" early in the decision-making process, thereby encouraging more sustainable water and sewerage infrastructure solutions. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perona, Ralph; Whicker, Jeffrey Jay; Mirenda, Richard J.

This report documents the calculation of Authorized Limits for radionuclides in soil to be used in the transfer of property by the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Authorized Limits support the evaluation process to clear land for release under different uses even though the soil contains small residual amounts of radioactivity. The Authorized Limits are developed for four exposure scenarios: residential, commercial/industrial, construction worker, and recreational. Exposure to radionuclides in soil under these scenarios is assessed for exposure routes that include incidental ingestion of soil; inhalation of soil particulates; ingestion of homegrown produce (residential only); and external irradiation frommore » soil. Inhalation and dermal absorption of tritiated water vapor in air are also assessed.« less

Feminist Pedagogy, Body Image, and the Dance Technique Class

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barr, Sherrie; Oliver, Wendy

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the evolution of feminist consciousness in dance technique class as related to body image, the myth of the perfect body, and the development of feminist pedagogy. Western concert dance forms have often been taught in a manner where imitating the teacher is primary in the learning process. In this traditional scenario,…

Space station needs, attributes and architectural options study. Volume 2: Mission analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

Space environment studies, astrophysics, Earth environment, life sciences, and material sciences are discussed. Commercial communication, materials processing, and Earth observation missions are addressed. Technology development, space operations, scenarios of operational capability, mission requirements, and benefits analysis results for space-produced gallium arsenide crystals, direct broadcasting satellite systems, and a high inclination space station are covered.

Effectiveness of an Electronic Performance Support System on Computer Ethics and Ethical Decision-Making Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kert, Serhat Bahadir; Uz, Cigdem; Gecu, Zeynep

2014-01-01

This study examined the effectiveness of an electronic performance support system (EPSS) on computer ethics education and the ethical decision-making processes. There were five different phases to this ten month study: (1) Writing computer ethics scenarios, (2) Designing a decision-making framework (3) Developing EPSS software (4) Using EPSS in a…

Development and Evaluation of a Virtual Campus on Second Life: The Case of SecondDMI

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Lucia, Andrea; Francese, Rita; Passero, Ignazio; Tortora, Genoveffa

2009-01-01

Video games and new communication metaphors are quickly changing today's young people habits. Considering the actual e-learning scenarios, embedded in a fully technological enabled environment it is crucial to take advantage of this kind of capabilities to let learning process gain best results. This paper presents a virtual campus created using…

Embedding Game-Based Problem-Solving Phase into Problem-Posing System for Mathematics Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Kuo-En; Wu, Lin-Jung; Weng, Sheng-En; Sung, Yao-Ting

2012-01-01

A problem-posing system is developed with four phases including posing problem, planning, solving problem, and looking back, in which the "solving problem" phase is implemented by game-scenarios. The system supports elementary students in the process of problem-posing, allowing them to fully engage in mathematical activities. In total, 92 fifth…

Utilization of eucalyptus for bioelectricity production in brazil via fast pyrolysis: a techno-economic analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this study, a process model of a 2000 metric ton per day (MTPD) eucalyptus Tail Gas Reactive Pyrolysis (TGRP) and electricity generation plant was developed and simulated in SimSci Pro/II software for the purpose of evaluating its techno-economic viability in Brazil. Two scenarios were compared b...

Skill Standards for Open Cut Pipe Laying.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laborers-AGC Education and Training Fund, Pomfret Center, CT.

This document identifies skill standards for utility construction in a format that uses scenarios to provide a picture of the construction process under consideration. The scenarios provide a general description of the pipe laying and utility construction process. An introduction describes use and benefits of skill standards. Section 2 presents…

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused by ozone was about 5.0-5.6% in the SSP2 scenario and 3.8-4.2% in the RCP scenario.

Water-Energy Nexus Challenges & Opportunities in the Arabian Peninsula under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores-Lopez, F.; Yates, D. N.; Galaitsi, S.; Binnington, T.; Dougherty, W.; Vinnaccia, M.; Glavan, J. C.

2016-12-01

Demand for water in the GCC countries relies mainly on fossil groundwater resources and desalination. Satisfying water demand requires a great deal of energy as it treats and moves water along the supply chain from sources, through treatment processes, and ultimately to the consumer. Hence, there is an inherent connection between water and energy and with climate change, the links between water and energy are expected to become even stronger. As part of AGEDI's Local, National, and Regional Climate Change Programme, a study of the water-energy nexus of the countries in the Arabian Peninsula was implemented. For water, WEAP models both water demand - and its main drivers - and water supply, simulating policies, priorities and preferences. For energy, LEAP models both energy supply and demand, and is able to capture the impacts of low carbon development strategies. A coupled WEAP-LEAP model was then used to evaluate the future performance of the energy-water system under climate change and policy scenarios. The coupled models required detailed data, which were obtained through literature reviews and consultations with key stakeholders in the region. As part of this process, the outputs of both models were validated for historic periods using existing data The models examined 5 policy scenarios of different futures of resource management to the year 2060. A future under current management practices with current climate and a climate projection based on the RCP8.5; a High Efficiency scenario where each country gradually implements policies to reduce the consumption of water and electricity; a Natural Resource Protection scenario with resource efficiency and phasing out of groundwater extraction and drastic reduction of fossil fuel usage in favor of solar; and an Integrated Policy scenario that integrates the prior two policy scenarios Water demands can mostly be met in any scenario through supply combinations of groundwater, desalination and wastewater reuse, with some regional fossil groundwater basins draw to extinction by 2060. While the analysis includes both demand and supply oriented scenarios, the results of the analysis strongly suggest that the region will need to simultaneously purse demand and supply side policies to achieve more sustainable uses of water and energy into the second half of the 21st century.

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Makowski, David; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Bassu, Simona; Durand, Jean-Louis; Martre, Pierre; Adam, Myriam; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Baron, Chritian;

[Horizon scanning in preparation for future health threats: a pilot exercise conducted by the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance in 2014].

PubMed

Eilstein, Daniel; Xerri, Bertrand; Viso, Anne-Catherine; Therre, Hélène; Gorza, Maud; Fuchs, Doriane; Pozuelos, Jérôme; Ioos, Sophie; Che, Didier; Bertrand, Edwige; El Yamani, Mounia; Empereur-Bissonnet, Pascal; Duport, Nicolas; Desenclos, Jean-Claude

2016-01-01

Background: Health surveillance is a reactive process, with no real hindsight for dealing with signals and alerts. It may fail to detect more radical changes with a major medium-term or long-term impact on public health. To increase proactivity, the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance has opted for a prospective monitoring approach.Methods: Several steps were necessary: 1) Identification of public health determinants. 2) Identification of key variables based on a combination of determinants. Variables were classified into three groups (health event trigger factors, dissemination factors and response factors) and were submitted to future development assumptions. 3) Identification, in each of the three groups, of micro-scenarios derived from variable trends. 4) Identification of macro-scenarios, each built from the three micro-scenarios for each of the three groups. 5) Identification of issues for the future of public health.Results: The exercise identified 22 key variables, 17 micro-scenarios and 5 macro-scenarios. The topics retained relate to issues on social and territorial health inequalities, health burden, individual and collective responsibilities in terms of health, ethical aspects, emerging phenomena, ‘Big data’, data mining, new health technologies, interlocking of analysis scales.Conclusions: The approach presented here guides the programming of activities of a health safety agency, particularly for monitoring and surveillance. By describing possible future scenarios, health surveillance can help decision-makers to influence the context towards one or more favourable futures.

Of possible cheminformatics futures.

PubMed

Oprea, Tudor I; Taboureau, Olivier; Bologa, Cristian G

2012-01-01

For over a decade, cheminformatics has contributed to a wide array of scientific tasks from analytical chemistry and biochemistry to pharmacology and drug discovery; and although its contributions to decision making are recognized, the challenge is how it would contribute to faster development of novel, better products. Here we address the future of cheminformatics with primary focus on innovation. Cheminformatics developers often need to choose between "mainstream" (i.e., accepted, expected) and novel, leading-edge tools, with an increasing trend for open science. Possible futures for cheminformatics include the worst case scenario (lack of funding, no creative usage), as well as the best case scenario (complete integration, from systems biology to virtual physiology). As "-omics" technologies advance, and computer hardware improves, compounds will no longer be profiled at the molecular level, but also in terms of genetic and clinical effects. Among potentially novel tools, we anticipate machine learning models based on free text processing, an increased performance in environmental cheminformatics, significant decision-making support, as well as the emergence of robot scientists conducting automated drug discovery research. Furthermore, cheminformatics is anticipated to expand the frontiers of knowledge and evolve in an open-ended, extensible manner, allowing us to explore multiple research scenarios in order to avoid epistemological "local information minimum trap".

Framework for Uncertainty Assessment - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergeron, M. P.; Cole, C. R.; Murray, C. J.; Thorne, P. D.; Wurstner, S. K.

2002-05-01

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is in the process of development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology for use in future site assessments that addresses parameter uncertainty as well as uncertainties related to the groundwater conceptual model. The long-term goals of the effort are development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology for use in future assessments and analyses being made with the Hanford site-wide groundwater model. The basic approach in the framework developed for uncertainty assessment consists of: 1) Alternate conceptual model (ACM) identification to identify and document the major features and assumptions of each conceptual model. The process must also include a periodic review of the existing and proposed new conceptual models as data or understanding become available. 2) ACM development of each identified conceptual model through inverse modeling with historical site data. 3) ACM evaluation to identify which of conceptual models are plausible and should be included in any subsequent uncertainty assessments. 4) ACM uncertainty assessments will only be carried out for those ACMs determined to be plausible through comparison with historical observations and model structure identification measures. The parameter uncertainty assessment process generally involves: a) Model Complexity Optimization - to identify the important or relevant parameters for the uncertainty analysis; b) Characterization of Parameter Uncertainty - to develop the pdfs for the important uncertain parameters including identification of any correlations among parameters; c) Propagation of Uncertainty - to propagate parameter uncertainties (e.g., by first order second moment methods if applicable or by a Monte Carlo approach) through the model to determine the uncertainty in the model predictions of interest. 5)Estimation of combined ACM and scenario uncertainty by a double sum with each component of the inner sum (an individual CCDF) representing parameter uncertainty associated with a particular scenario and ACM and the outer sum enumerating the various plausible ACM and scenario combinations in order to represent the combined estimate of uncertainty (a family of CCDFs). A final important part of the framework includes identification, enumeration, and documentation of all the assumptions, which include those made during conceptual model development, required by the mathematical model, required by the numerical model, made during the spatial and temporal descretization process, needed to assign the statistical model and associated parameters that describe the uncertainty in the relevant input parameters, and finally those assumptions required by the propagation method. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC06-76RL01830.

The influence of teacher feedback on children's perceptions of student-teacher relationships.

PubMed

Skipper, Yvonne; Douglas, Karen

2015-09-01

Teachers can deliver feedback using person ('you are clever') or process terms ('you worked hard'). Person feedback can lead to negative academic outcomes, but there is little experimental research examining the impact of feedback on children's perceptions of the student-teacher relationship. We examined the effects of person, process, and no feedback on children's perceptions of their relationship with a (fictional) teacher following success and failure. Participants were British children (145 aged 9-11 in experiment 1 and 98 aged 7-11 in experiment 2). In experiment 1, participants read three scenarios where they succeeded and received one of two types of praise (person or process) or no praise. Participants then read two scenarios where they failed. In experiment 2, participants read that they had failed in three tasks and received one of two types of criticism (person or process) or no criticism. Participants then read two scenarios where they succeeded. They rated how much they liked the teacher and how much they felt that the teacher liked them. Children felt more positive about the student-teacher relationship following success than failure. Type of praise did not influence perceptions of the student-teacher relationship following success or failure. However, person criticism led children to view the student-teacher relationship more negatively following failure and maintain this negative view following the first success. Success appears to be important for developing positive student-teacher relationships. In response to failure, teachers could avoid person criticism which may negatively influence the student-teacher relationship. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Effects of alcohol on automated and controlled driving performances.

PubMed

Berthelon, Catherine; Gineyt, Guy

2014-05-01

Alcohol is the most frequently detected substance in fatal automobile crashes, but its precise mode of action is not always clear. The present study was designed to establish the influence of blood alcohol concentration as a function of the complexity of the scenarios. Road scenarios implying automatic or controlled driving performances were manipulated in order to identify which behavioral parameters were deteriorated. A single blind counterbalanced experiment was conducted on a driving simulator. Sixteen experienced drivers (25.3 ± 2.9 years old, 8 men and 8 women) were tested with 0, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.8 g/l of alcohol. Driving scenarios varied: road tracking, car following, and an urban scenario including events inspired by real accidents. Statistical analyses were performed on driving parameters as a function of alcohol level. Automated driving parameters such as standard deviation of lateral position measured with the road tracking and car following scenarios were impaired by alcohol, notably with the highest dose. More controlled parameters such as response time to braking and number of crashes when confronted with specific events (urban scenario) were less affected by the alcohol level. Performance decrement was greater with driving scenarios involving automated processes than with scenarios involving controlled processes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carpenter, Alberta; Mann, Margaret; Gelman, Rachel

In evaluating next-generation materials and processes, the supply chain can have a large impact on the life cycle energy impacts. The Materials Flow through Industry (MFI) tool was developed for the Department of Energy's Advanced Manufacturing Office to be able to evaluate the energy impacts of the U.S. supply chain. The tool allows users to perform process comparisons, material substitutions, and grid modifications, and to see the effects of implementing sector efficiency potentials (Masanet, et al. 2009). This paper reviews the methodology of the tool and provides results around specific scenarios.

Performance indicators for the efficiency analysis of urban drainage systems.

PubMed

Artina, S; Becciu, G; Maglionico, M; Paoletti, A; Sanfilippo, U

2005-01-01

Performance indicators implemented in a decision support system (DSS) for the technical, managerial and economic evaluation of urban drainage systems (UDS), called MOMA FD, are presented. Several kinds of information are collected and processed by MOMA FD to evaluate both present situation and future scenarios of development and enhancement. Particular interest is focused on the evaluation of the environmental impact, which is considered a very relevant factor in the decision making process to identify the priorities for UDS improvements.

Climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessment of solid radioactive waste disposal: Results of an initiative of the IAEA.

PubMed

Lindborg, T; Thorne, M; Andersson, E; Becker, J; Brandefelt, J; Cabianca, T; Gunia, M; Ikonen, A T K; Johansson, E; Kangasniemi, V; Kautsky, U; Kirchner, G; Klos, R; Kowe, R; Kontula, A; Kupiainen, P; Lahdenperä, A-M; Lord, N S; Lunt, D J; Näslund, J-O; Nordén, M; Norris, S; Pérez-Sánchez, D; Proverbio, A; Riekki, K; Rübel, A; Sweeck, L; Walke, R; Xu, S; Smith, G; Pröhl, G

2018-03-01

The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing climate change and landscape development in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The work has been supported by results of parallel on-going research that has been published in a variety of reports and peer reviewed journal articles. The project is due to be described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Noting the multi-disciplinary nature of post-closure safety assessments, here, an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radiological safety assessment with a review of the work that has been undertaken. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of climate change and landscape development within an overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: identification of the key processes that drive environmental change (mainly those associated with climate and climate change), and description of how a relevant future may develop on a global scale; development of a methodology for characterising environmental change that is valid on a global scale, showing how modelled global changes in climate can be downscaled to provide information that may be needed for characterising environmental change in site-specific assessments, and illustrating different aspects of the methodology in a number of case studies that show the evolution of site characteristics and the implications for the dose assessment models. Overall, the study has shown that quantitative climate and landscape modelling has now developed to the stage that it can be used to define an envelope of climate and landscape change scenarios at specific sites and under specific greenhouse-gas emissions assumptions that is suitable for use in quantitative post-closure performance assessments. These scenarios are not predictions of the future, but are projections based on a well-established understanding of the important processes involved and their impacts on different types of landscape. Such projections support the understanding of, and selection of, plausible ranges of scenarios for use in post-closure safety assessments. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A Scientific Workflow System for Satellite Data Processing with Real-Time Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Minh Duc

2018-02-01

This paper provides a case study on satellite data processing, storage, and distribution in the space weather domain by introducing the Satellite Data Downloading System (SDDS). The approach proposed in this paper was evaluated through real-world scenarios and addresses the challenges related to the specific field. Although SDDS is used for satellite data processing, it can potentially be adapted to a wide range of data processing scenarios in other fields of physics.

The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

2015-04-01

There are many evidences that the combined effects of variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change can result in a significant change of the recharge to groundwater at different time scales. A possible reduction of effective infiltration can result in a significant decrease, temporary or permanent, of the availability of the resource and, consequently, the sustainable pumping rate should be reassessed. In addition to this, one should also consider the so called indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from human intervention (e.g. augmentation of abstractions) which are feared to be even more important than the direct ones in the medium term: thus, a possible increase of episodes of shortage (i.e. the inability of the groundwater system to completely supply the water demand) can result both from change in the climate forcing and change in the demand. In order to assess future scenarios of water shortage a modelling chain is often used. It includes: 1) the use of General Circulation Models to estimate changes in temperature and precipitation; 2) downscaling procedures to match modeling scenarios to the observed meteorological time series; 3) soil-atmosphere modelling to estimate the time variation of the recharge to the aquifer; 4) groundwater flow models to simulate the water budget and piezometric head evolution; 5) future scenarios of groundwater quantitative status that include scenarios of demand variation. It is well known that each of these processing steps is affected by an intrinsic uncertainty that propagates through the whole chain leading to a final uncertainty on the piezometric head scenarios. The estimate of such an uncertainty is a key point for a correct management of groundwater resources, in case of water shortage due to prolonged droughts as well as for planning purposes. This study analyzes the uncertainty of the processing chain from GCM scenarios to its impact on an alluvial aquifer in terms of exploitation sustainability. To this goal, three GCMs (ECHAM5, PCM and CCSM3) and two downscaling methods (Linear Rescaling and Quantile Mapping) are used to generate future scenarios of precipitation and temperature; the Thornthwaite-Mather soil water balance model is used to estimate the recharge to the aquifer; the evolution in time of the piezometric heads is estimated through a numerical model developed using the MODFLOW2005 code. Finally, different scenarios of water demand are applied. Final results show that the uncertainty due to the groundwater flow model calibration/validation in steady-state conditions is comparable to that arising from the whole processing chain from the GCM choice to the effective infiltration estimates. Simulations in transient conditions show the high impact of the uncertainty related to the calibration of the storage coefficient, that significantly drives the resilience of the system, thus the ability of the aquifer to sustain the demand during the periods of prolonged drought.

Land use scenarios development and impacts assessment on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration in the West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chabi, A.

2015-12-01

ackground: Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), being developed through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires information on the carbon/nitrogen stocks in the plant biomass for predicting future climate under scenarios development. The development of land use scenarios in West Africa is needed to predict future impacts of change in the environment and the socio-economic status of rural communities. The study aims at developing land use scenario based on mitigation strategy to climate change as an issue of contributing for carbon and nitrogen sequestration, the condition 'food focused' as a scenario based crop production and 'financial investment' as scenario based on an economic development pathway, and to explore the possible future temporal and spatial impacts on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration/emission and socio-economic status of rural communities. Preliminary results: BEN-LUDAS (Benin-Land Use DyNamic Simulator) model, carbon and nitrogen equations, remote sensing and socio-economic data were used to predict the future impacts of each scenario in the environment and human systems. The preliminary results which are under analysis will be presented soon. Conclusion: The proposed BEN-LUDAS models will help to contribute to policy decision making at the local and regional scale and to predict future impacts of change in the environment and socio-economic status of the rural communities. Keywords: Land use scenarios development, BEN-LUDAS, socio-economic status of rural communities, future impacts of change, assessment, West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

PubMed

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Geographic Information System Tools for Conservation Planning: User's Manual

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fox, Timothy J.; Rohweder, Jason J.; Kenow, K.P.; Korschgen, C.E.; DeHaan, H.C.

2003-01-01

Public and private land managers desire better ways to incorporate landscape, species, and habitat relations into their conservation planning processes. We present three tools, developed for the Environmental Systems Research Institute?s ArcView 3.x platform, applicable to many types of wildlife conservation management and planning efforts. These tools provide managers and planners with the ability to rapidly assess landscape attributes and link these attributes with species-habitat information. To use the tools, the user provides a detailed land cover spatial database and develops a matrix to identify species-habitat relations for the landscape of interest. The tools are applicable to any taxa or suite of taxa for which the required data are available. The user also has the ability to interactively make polygon-specific changes to the landscape and re-examine species-habitat relations. The development of these tools has given resource managers the means to evaluate the merits of proposed landscape management scenarios and to choose the scenario that best fits the goals of the managed area.

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Thorburn, Peter

2017-01-01

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

Combined sewer overflow control with LID based on SWMM: an example in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Liao, Z L; Zhang, G Q; Wu, Z H; He, Y; Chen, H

2015-01-01

Although low impact development (LID) has been commonly applied across the developed countries for mitigating the negative impacts of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) on urban hydrological environment, it has not been widely used in developing countries yet. In this paper, a typical combined sewer system in an urbanized area of Shanghai, China was used to demonstrate how to design and choose CSO control solutions with LID using stormwater management model. We constructed and simulated three types of CSO control scenarios. Our findings support the notion that LID measures possess favorable capability on CSO reduction. Nevertheless, the green scenarios which are completely comprised by LID measures fail to achieve the maximal effectiveness on CSO reduction, while the gray-green scenarios (LID measure combined with gray measures) achieve it. The unit cost-effectiveness of each type of scenario sorts as: green scenario > gray-green scenario > gray scenario. Actually, as the storage tank is built in the case catchment, a complete application of green scenario is inaccessible here. Through comprehensive evaluation and comparison, the gray-green scenario F which used the combination of storage tank, bio-retention and rain barrels is considered as the most feasible one in this case.

Developing High-Fidelity Health Care Simulation Scenarios: A Guide for Educators and Professionals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alinier, Guillaume

2011-01-01

The development of appropriate scenarios is critical in high-fidelity simulation training. They need to be developed to address specific learning objectives, while not preventing other learning points from emerging. Buying a patient simulator, finding a volunteer to act as the patient, or even obtaining ready-made scenarios from another simulation…

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Characterization of Visual Scanning Patterns in Air Traffic Control

PubMed Central

McClung, Sarah N.; Kang, Ziho

2016-01-01

Characterization of air traffic controllers' (ATCs') visual scanning strategies is a challenging issue due to the dynamic movement of multiple aircraft and increasing complexity of scanpaths (order of eye fixations and saccades) over time. Additionally, terminologies and methods are lacking to accurately characterize the eye tracking data into simplified visual scanning strategies linguistically expressed by ATCs. As an intermediate step to automate the characterization classification process, we (1) defined and developed new concepts to systematically filter complex visual scanpaths into simpler and more manageable forms and (2) developed procedures to map visual scanpaths with linguistic inputs to reduce the human judgement bias during interrater agreement. The developed concepts and procedures were applied to investigating the visual scanpaths of expert ATCs using scenarios with different aircraft congestion levels. Furthermore, oculomotor trends were analyzed to identify the influence of aircraft congestion on scan time and number of comparisons among aircraft. The findings show that (1) the scanpaths filtered at the highest intensity led to more consistent mapping with the ATCs' linguistic inputs, (2) the pattern classification occurrences differed between scenarios, and (3) increasing aircraft congestion caused increased scan times and aircraft pairwise comparisons. The results provide a foundation for better characterizing complex scanpaths in a dynamic task and automating the analysis process. PMID:27239190

Characterization of Visual Scanning Patterns in Air Traffic Control.

PubMed

McClung, Sarah N; Kang, Ziho

2016-01-01

Characterization of air traffic controllers' (ATCs') visual scanning strategies is a challenging issue due to the dynamic movement of multiple aircraft and increasing complexity of scanpaths (order of eye fixations and saccades) over time. Additionally, terminologies and methods are lacking to accurately characterize the eye tracking data into simplified visual scanning strategies linguistically expressed by ATCs. As an intermediate step to automate the characterization classification process, we (1) defined and developed new concepts to systematically filter complex visual scanpaths into simpler and more manageable forms and (2) developed procedures to map visual scanpaths with linguistic inputs to reduce the human judgement bias during interrater agreement. The developed concepts and procedures were applied to investigating the visual scanpaths of expert ATCs using scenarios with different aircraft congestion levels. Furthermore, oculomotor trends were analyzed to identify the influence of aircraft congestion on scan time and number of comparisons among aircraft. The findings show that (1) the scanpaths filtered at the highest intensity led to more consistent mapping with the ATCs' linguistic inputs, (2) the pattern classification occurrences differed between scenarios, and (3) increasing aircraft congestion caused increased scan times and aircraft pairwise comparisons. The results provide a foundation for better characterizing complex scanpaths in a dynamic task and automating the analysis process.

Hydrological Assessment of Model Performance and Scenario Analyses of Land Use Change and Climate Change in lowlands of Veneto Region (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pijl, Anton; Brauer, Claudia; Sofia, Giulia; Teuling, Ryan; Tarolli, Paolo

2017-04-01

Growing water-related challenges in lowland areas of the world call for good assessment of our past and present actions, in order to guide our future decisions. The novel Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS; Brauer et al., 2014) was developed to simulate hydrological processes and has showed promising performance in recent studies in the Netherlands. Here the model was applied to a coastal basin of 2800 ha in the Veneto Region (northern Italy) to test model performance and evaluate scenario analyses of land use change and climate change. Located partially below sea-level, the reclaimed area is facing persistent land transformation and climate change trends, which alter not only the processes in the catchment but also the demands from it (Tarolli and Sofia, 2016). Firstly results of the calibration (NSE = 0.77; year simulation, daily resolution) and validation (NSE = 0.53; idem) showed that the model is able to reproduce the dominant hydrological processes of this lowland area (e.g. discharge and groundwater fluxes). Land use scenarios between 1951 and 2060 were constructed using demographic models, supported by orthographic interpretation techniques. Climate scenarios were constructed by historical records and future projections by COSMO-CLM regional climate model (Rockel et al., 2008) under the RCP4.5 pathway. WALRUS simulations showed that the land use changes result in a wetter catchment with more discharge, and the climatic changes cause more extremes with longer droughts and stronger rain events. These changes combined show drier summers (-33{%} rainfall, +27{%} soil moisture deficit) and wetter (+13{%} rainfall) and intenser (+30{%} rain intensity) autumn and winters in the future. The simulated discharge regime -particularly peak flow- follows these polarising trends, in good agreement with similar studies in the geographical zone (e.g. Vezzoli et al., 2015). This will increase the pressure on the fully-artificial drainage and agricultural systems, that will need to adapt to prevent largescale floods or crop-failure. Additionally, simulations under 'business-as-usual' pathway RCP8.5 would likely amplify the polarising effects on the hydrological regime as presented here, further stressing the need for adequate adaptation. The proposed presentation at EGU 2017 will contain clear visual results of the model and quantitative scenario simulations. These results are particularly interesting, firstly because they prove how a simple conceptual model can become a powerful tool in scenario analysis of future pathways. Furthermore, they clearly indicate major challenges that lowland areas are facing in modern times - not only the 46.000 km2 Po valley, but all around the world where lowlands often host the centres of our societies and economies. REFERENCES Brauer, C., Teuling, A., Torfs, P., Uijlenhoet, R., 2014. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a lumped rainfall-runoff model for catchments with shallow groundwater. Geoscientific Model Development 7 (5), 2313-2332. Rockel, B., Will, A., Hense, A., 2008. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorologische Zeitschrift 17 (4), 347-348. Tarolli, P., Sofia, G., 2016. Human topographic signatures and derived geomorphic processes across landscapes. Geomorphology 255, 140-161. Vezzoli, R., Mercogliano, P., Pecora, S., Zollo, A., Cacciamani, C., 2015. Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM. Science of The Total Environment 521, 346-358.

Development of a Distributed Parallel Computing Framework to Facilitate Regional/Global Gridded Crop Modeling with Various Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, W.; Engda, T. A.; Neff, J. C.; Herrick, J.

2017-12-01

Many crop models are increasingly used to evaluate crop yields at regional and global scales. However, implementation of these models across large areas using fine-scale grids is limited by computational time requirements. In order to facilitate global gridded crop modeling with various scenarios (i.e., different crop, management schedule, fertilizer, and irrigation) using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, we developed a distributed parallel computing framework in Python. Our local desktop with 14 cores (28 threads) was used to test the distributed parallel computing framework in Iringa, Tanzania which has 406,839 grid cells. High-resolution soil data, SoilGrids (250 x 250 m), and climate data, AgMERRA (0.25 x 0.25 deg) were also used as input data for the gridded EPIC model. The framework includes a master file for parallel computing, input database, input data formatters, EPIC model execution, and output analyzers. Through the master file for parallel computing, the user-defined number of threads of CPU divides the EPIC simulation into jobs. Then, Using EPIC input data formatters, the raw database is formatted for EPIC input data and the formatted data moves into EPIC simulation jobs. Then, 28 EPIC jobs run simultaneously and only interesting results files are parsed and moved into output analyzers. We applied various scenarios with seven different slopes and twenty-four fertilizer ranges. Parallelized input generators create different scenarios as a list for distributed parallel computing. After all simulations are completed, parallelized output analyzers are used to analyze all outputs according to the different scenarios. This saves significant computing time and resources, making it possible to conduct gridded modeling at regional to global scales with high-resolution data. For example, serial processing for the Iringa test case would require 113 hours, while using the framework developed in this study requires only approximately 6 hours, a nearly 95% reduction in computing time.

Explosion/Blast Dynamics for Constellation Launch Vehicles Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baer, Mel; Crawford, Dave; Hickox, Charles; Kipp, Marlin; Hertel, Gene; Morgan, Hal; Ratzel, Arthur; Cragg, Clinton H.

2009-01-01

An assessment methodology is developed to guide quantitative predictions of adverse physical environments and the subsequent effects on the Ares-1 crew launch vehicle associated with the loss of containment of cryogenic liquid propellants from the upper stage during ascent. Development of the methodology is led by a team at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) with guidance and support from a number of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) personnel. The methodology is based on the current Ares-1 design and feasible accident scenarios. These scenarios address containment failure from debris impact or structural response to pressure or blast loading from an external source. Once containment is breached, the envisioned assessment methodology includes predictions for the sequence of physical processes stemming from cryogenic tank failure. The investigative techniques, analysis paths, and numerical simulations that comprise the proposed methodology are summarized and appropriate simulation software is identified in this report.

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2014-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their specific concerns; 3) providing groups with information packaged specifically for them; 4) recognizing the value of having scenario developers personally present the scenario to user groups and 5) having the SAFRR work applied to support ongoing activities by and future directions of the California state tsunami program.

2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Potential Commercial Development Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Creech, Stephen D.; Rogacki, John R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The presentation will discuss potential commercial development scenarios for a Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. The analysis of potential scenarios will include commercial rates of return, government return on investment, and market considerations. The presentation will include policy considerations in addition to analysis of Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle economics. The data discussed is being developed as a part of NASA's Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program, for consideration as potential scenarios for enabling a next generation system. Material will include potential scenarios not previously considered by NASA or presented at other conferences. Candidate paper has not been presented at a previous meeting, and conference attendance of the author has been approved by NASA.

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling environment.

Dependency, self-criticism and negative affective responses following imaginary rejection and failure threats: meaning-making processes as moderators or mediators.

PubMed

Besser, Avi; Priel, Beatriz

2011-01-01

This study evaluated the intervening role of meaning-making processes in emotional responses to negative life events based on Blatt's (1974, 2004) formulations concerning the role of personality predispositions in depression. In a pre/post within-subject study design, a community sample of 233 participants reacted to imaginary scenarios of interpersonal rejection and achievement failure. Meaning-making processes relating to threats to self-definition and interpersonal relatedness were examined following the exposure to the scenarios. The results indicated that the personality predisposition of Dependency, but not Self-Criticism predicted higher levels of negative affect following the interpersonal rejection event, independent of baseline levels of negative affect. This effect was mediated by higher levels of negative meaning-making processes related to the effect of the interpersonal rejection scenario on Dependent individuals' senses of interpersonal relatedness and self-worth. In addition, both Self-Criticism and Dependency predicted higher levels of negative affect following the achievement failure event, independent of baseline levels of negative affect. Finally, the effect of Self-Criticism was mediated by higher levels of negative meaning-making processes related to the effect of the achievement failure scenario on self-critical individuals' senses of self-definition.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;

System and method for deriving a process-based specification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinchey, Michael Gerard (Inventor); Rouff, Christopher A. (Inventor); Rash, James Larry (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A system and method for deriving a process-based specification for a system is disclosed. The process-based specification is mathematically inferred from a trace-based specification. The trace-based specification is derived from a non-empty set of traces or natural language scenarios. The process-based specification is mathematically equivalent to the trace-based specification. Code is generated, if applicable, from the process-based specification. A process, or phases of a process, using the features disclosed can be reversed and repeated to allow for an interactive development and modification of legacy systems. The process is applicable to any class of system, including, but not limited to, biological and physical systems, electrical and electro-mechanical systems in addition to software, hardware and hybrid hardware-software systems.

Developing a customized multiple interview for dental school admissions.

PubMed

Gardner, Karen M

2014-04-01

From the early 1980s until recently, the University of British Columbia Faculty of Dentistry had employed the Canadian Dental Association (CDA) Structured Interview in its Phase 2 admissions process (with those applicants invited for interviews). While this structured interview had demonstrated reliability and validity, the Faculty of Dentistry came to believe that a multiple interview process using scenarios would help it better identify applicants who would match its mission. After a literature review that investigated such interview protocols as unstructured, semi-structured, computerized, and telephone formats, a multiple interview format was chosen. This format was seen as an emerging trend, with evidence that it has been deemed fairer by applicants, more reliable by interviewers, more difficult for applicants to provide set answers for the scenarios, and not to require as many interviewers as other formats. This article describes the process undertaken to implement a customized multiple interview format for admissions and reports these outcomes of the process: a smoothly running multiple interview; effective training protocols for staff, interviewers, and applicants; and reports from successful applicants and interviewers that they felt the multiple interview was a more reliable and fairer recruiting tool than other models.

Recent updates in developing a statistical pseudo-dynamic source-modeling framework to capture the variability of earthquake rupture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Seok Goo; Kwak, Sangmin; Lee, Kyungbook; Park, Donghee

2017-04-01

It is a critical element to predict the intensity and variability of strong ground motions in seismic hazard assessment. The characteristics and variability of earthquake rupture process may be a dominant factor in determining the intensity and variability of near-source strong ground motions. Song et al. (2014) demonstrated that the variability of earthquake rupture scenarios could be effectively quantified in the framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters, constrained by rupture dynamics and past events. The developed pseudo-dynamic source modeling schemes were also validated against the recorded ground motion data of past events and empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at the broadband platform (BBP) developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Recently we improved the computational efficiency of the developed pseudo-dynamic source-modeling scheme by adopting the nonparametric co-regionalization algorithm, introduced and applied in geostatistics initially. We also investigated the effect of earthquake rupture process on near-source ground motion characteristics in the framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics, particularly focusing on the forward directivity region. Finally we will discuss whether the pseudo-dynamic source modeling can reproduce the variability (standard deviation) of empirical GMPEs and the efficiency of 1-point and 2-point statistics to address the variability of ground motions.

Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests.

PubMed

Moore, John R; Watt, Michael S

2015-08-01

Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Development method of healthcare information system integration based on business collaboration model].

PubMed

Li, Shasha; Nie, Hongchao; Lu, Xudong; Duan, Huilong

2015-02-01

Integration of heterogeneous systems is the key to hospital information construction due to complexity of the healthcare environment. Currently, during the process of healthcare information system integration, people participating in integration project usually communicate by free-format document, which impairs the efficiency and adaptability of integration. A method utilizing business process model and notation (BPMN) to model integration requirement and automatically transforming it to executable integration configuration was proposed in this paper. Based on the method, a tool was developed to model integration requirement and transform it to integration configuration. In addition, an integration case in radiology scenario was used to verify the method.

Remediation scenarios for attenuating peak flows and reducing sediment transport in Fountain Creek, Colorado, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kohn, Michael S.; Fulton, John W.; Williams, Cory A.; Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Fountain Creek Watershed, Flood Control and Greenway District assessed remediation scenarios to attenuate peak flows and reduce sediment loads in the Fountain Creek watershed. To evaluate these strategies, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) hydrologic and hydraulic models were employed. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling system HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Modeling System) version 3.5 was used to simulate runoff in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, associated with storms of varying magnitude and duration. Rain-gage precipitation data and radar-based precipitation data from the April 28–30, 1999, and September 14–15, 2011, storm events were used in the calibration process for the HEC-HMS model. The curve number and lag time for each subwatershed and Manning's roughness coefficients for each channel reach were adjusted within an acceptable range so that the simulated and measured streamflow hydrographs for each of the 12 USGS streamgages approximated each other. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling system HEC-RAS (River Analysis System) versions 4.1 and 4.2 were used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport, respectively, for the Fountain Creek watershed generated by a particular storm event. Data from 15 USGS streamgages were used for model calibration and 7 of those USGS streamgages were used for model validation. The calibration process consisted of comparing the simulated water-surface elevations and the cross-section-averaged velocities from the model with those surveyed in the field at the cross section at the corresponding 15 and 7 streamgages, respectively. The final Manning’s roughness coefficients were adjusted between –30 and 30 percent at the 15 calibration streamgages from the original left, right, and channel-averaged Manning's roughness coefficients upon completion of calibration. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling system HEC-RAS version 4.2 was used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport for the Fountain Creek watershed generated by a design-storm event. The Laursen-Copeland sediment-transport function was used in conjunction with the Exner 5 sorting method and the Ruby fall-velocity method to predict sediment transport. Six USGS streamgages equipped with suspended-sediment samplers were used to develop sediment-flow rating curves for the sediment-transport-model calibration. The critical Shields number in the Laursen-Copeland sediment-transport function and the volume of sediment available at a given cross section were adjusted during the HEC-RAS sediment-model calibration process. HEC-RAS model simulations used to evaluate the 14 remediation scenarios were based on unsteady-state streamflows associated with a 24-hour, 1-percent annual exceedance probability (100-year) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Type II precipitation event. Scenario 0 represents the baseline or current conditions in the watershed and was used to compare the remaining 13 scenarios. Scenarios 1–8 and 12 rely on side-detention facilities to reduce peak flows and sediment transport. Scenario 9 has a diversion channel, and scenario 10 has a reservoir. Scenarios 11 and 13 incorporate channel armoring and channel widening, respectively. Scenarios 8 and 10, the scenario with the most side-detention facilities, and the scenario with the reservoir, respectively, were the most effective at reducing sediment transport and peak flow at the Pueblo, Colorado, streamgage. Scenarios 8 and 10 altered the peak flow by –58.9 and –56.4 percent, respectively. In turn, scenarios 8 and 10 altered the sediment transport by –17.7 and –62.1 percent, respectively.

A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

PubMed

Almahayni, T

2014-12-01

The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating impacts of climate change on future water scarcity in an intensively managed semi-arid region using a coupled model of biophysical processes and water rights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Flores, A. N.; Benner, S. G.

2017-12-01

In semiarid and arid regions where water supply is intensively managed, future water scarcity is a product of complex interactions between climate change and human activities. Evaluating future water scarcity under alternative scenarios of climate change, therefore, necessitates modeling approaches that explicitly represent the coupled biophysical and social processes responsible for the redistribution of water in these regions. At regional scales a particular challenge lies in adequately capturing not only the central tendencies of change in projections of climate change, but also the associated plausible range of variability in those projections. This study develops a framework that combines a stochastic weather generator, historical climate observations, and statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections. The method generates a large ensemble of daily climate realizations, avoiding deficiencies of using a few or mean values of individual GCM realizations. Three climate change scenario groups reflecting the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 future projections are developed. Importantly, the model explicitly captures the spatiotemporally varying irrigation activities as constrained by local water rights in a rapidly growing, semi-arid human-environment system in southwest Idaho. We use this modeling framework to project water use and scarcity patterns under the three future climate change scenarios. The model is built using the Envision alternative futures modeling framework. Climate projections for the region show future increases in both precipitation and temperature, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. The increase of temperature has a direct influence on the increase of the irrigation water use and water scarcity, while the influence of increased precipitation on water use is less clear. The predicted changes are potentially useful in identifying areas in the watershed particularly sensitive to water scarcity, the relative importance of changes in precipitation versus temperature as a driver of scarcity, and potential shortcomings of the current water management framework in the region.

Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

2014-12-01

Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC-processes, mutual effects and influences on protected entities. The scenario analyses allow the deduction of monitoring concepts as well as a first methodology for large scale spatial planning of the geological subsurface. This concept is illustrated for different storage options and their impacts in space and time.

A comparative study on the clinical decision-making processes of nurse practitioners vs. medical doctors using scenarios in a secondary care environment.

PubMed

Thompson, Stephen; Moorley, Calvin; Barratt, Julian

2017-05-01

To investigate the decision-making skills of secondary care nurse practitioners compared with those of medical doctors. A literature review was conducted, searching for articles published from 1990 - 2012. The review found that nurse practitioners are key to the modernization of the National Health Service. Studies have shown that compared with doctors, nurse practitioners can be efficient and cost-effective in consultations. Qualitative research design. The information processing theory and think aloud approach were used to understand the cognitive processes of 10 participants (5 doctors and 5 nurse practitioners). One nurse practitioner was paired with one doctor from the same speciality and they were compared using a structured scenario-based interview. To ensure that all critical and relevant cues were covered by the individual participating in the scenario, a reference model was used to measure the degree of successful diagnosis, management and treatment. This study was conducted from May 2012 - January 2013. The data were processed for 5 months, from July to November 2012. The two groups of practitioners differed in the number of cue acquisitions obtained in the scenarios. In our study, nurse practitioners took 3 minutes longer to complete the scenarios. This study suggests that nurse practitioner consultations are comparable to those of medical doctors in a secondary care environment in terms of correct diagnoses and therapeutic treatments. The information processing theory highlighted that both groups of professionals had similar models for decision-making processes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.

This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

Personnel Dose Assessment during Active Interrogation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Thomas Martin; Akkurt, Hatice; Patton, Bruce W

A leading candidate in the detection of special nuclear material (SNM) is active interrogation (AI). Unlike passive interrogation, AI uses a source to enhance or create a detectable signal from SNM (usually fission), particularly in shielded scenarios or scenarios where the SNM has a low activity. The use of AI thus makes the detection of SNM easier or, in some scenarios, even enables previously impossible detection. During the development of AI sources, significant effort is put into determining the source strength required to detect SNM in specific scenarios. Usually during this process, but not always, an evaluation of personnel dosemore » is also completed. In this instance personnel dose could involve any of the following: (1) personnel performing the AI; (2) unknown stowaways who are inside the object being interrogated; or (3) in clandestine interrogations, personnel who are known to be inside the object being interrogated but are unaware of the interrogation. In most instances, dose to anyone found smuggling SNM will be a secondary issue. However, for the organizations performing the AI, legal if not moral considerations should make dose to the personnel performing the AI, unknown stowaways, or innocent bystanders in clandestine interrogations a serious concern.« less

Predicting future land cover change and its impact on streamflow and sediment load in a trans-boundary river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jie; Wang, Hao; Ning, Shaowei; Hiroshi, Ishidaira

2018-06-01

Sediment load can provide very important perspective on erosion of river basin. The changes of human-induced vegetation cover, such as deforestation or afforestation, affect sediment yield process of a catchment. We have already evaluated that climate change and land cover change changed the historical streamflow and sediment yield, and land cover change is the main factor in Red river basin. But future streamflow and sediment yield changes under potential future land cover change scenario still have not been evaluated. For this purpose, future scenario of land cover change is developed based on historical land cover changes and land change model (LCM). In addition, future leaf area index (LAI) is simulated by ecological model (Biome-BGC) based on future land cover scenario. Then future scenarios of land cover change and LAI are used to drive hydrological model and new sediment rating curve. The results of this research provide information that decision-makers need in order to promote water resources planning efforts. Besides that, this study also contributes a basic framework for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield that can be applied in the other basins around the world.

Techno-economic analysis of different pretreatment processes for lignocellulosic-based bioethanol production.

PubMed

da Silva, André Rodrigues Gurgel; Torres Ortega, Carlo Edgar; Rong, Ben-Guang

2016-10-01

In this work, a method based on process synthesis, simulation and evaluation has been used to setup and study the industrial scale lignocellulosic bioethanol productions processes. Scenarios for pretreatment processes of diluted acid, liquid hot water and ammonia fiber explosion were studied. Pretreatment reactor temperature, catalyst loading and water content as well as solids loading in the hydrolysis reactor were evaluated regarding its effects on the process energy consumption and bioethanol concentration. The best scenarios for maximizing ethanol concentration and minimizing total annual costs (TAC) were selected and their minimum ethanol selling price was calculated. Ethanol concentration in the range of 2-8% (wt.) was investigated after the pretreatment. The best scenarios maximizing the ethanol concentration and minimizing TAC obtained a reduction of 19.6% and 30.2% respectively in the final ethanol selling price with respect to the initial base case. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Futures Scenario in Science Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

2010-01-01

In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

Implementation of Lean System on Erbium Doped Fibre Amplifier Manufacturing Process to Reduce Production Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maneechote, T.; Luangpaiboon, P.

2010-10-01

A manufacturing process of erbium doped fibre amplifiers is complicated. It needs to meet the customers' requirements under a present economic status that products need to be shipped to customers as soon as possible after purchasing orders. This research aims to study and improve processes and production lines of erbium doped fibre amplifiers using lean manufacturing systems via an application of computer simulation. Three scenarios of lean tooled box systems are selected via the expert system. Firstly, the production schedule based on shipment date is combined with a first in first out control system. The second scenario focuses on a designed flow process plant layout. Finally, the previous flow process plant layout combines with production schedule based on shipment date including the first in first out control systems. The computer simulation with the limited data via an expected value is used to observe the performance of all scenarios. The most preferable resulted lean tooled box systems from a computer simulation are selected to implement in the real process of a production of erbium doped fibre amplifiers. A comparison is carried out to determine the actual performance measures via an analysis of variance of the response or the production time per unit achieved in each scenario. The goodness of an adequacy of the linear statistical model via experimental errors or residuals is also performed to check the normality, constant variance and independence of the residuals. The results show that a hybrid scenario of lean manufacturing system with the first in first out control and flow process plant lay out statistically leads to better performance in terms of the mean and variance of production times.

Conversion of municipal solid waste to hydrogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, J. H.; Rogers, R. S.; Thorsness, C. B.

1995-04-01

LLNL and Texaco are cooperatively developing a physical and chemical treatment method for the conversion of municipal solid waste (MSW) to hydrogen via the steps of hydrothermal pretreatment, gasification and purification. LLNL's focus has been on hydrothermal pretreatment of MSW in order to prepare a slurry of suitable viscosity and heating value to allow efficient and economical gasification and hydrogen production. The project has evolved along 3 parallel paths: laboratory scale experiments, pilot scale processing, and process modeling. Initial laboratory-scale MSW treatment results (e.g., viscosity, slurry solids content) over a range of temperatures and times with newspaper and plastics will be presented. Viscosity measurements have been correlated with results obtained at MRL. A hydrothermal treatment pilot facility has been rented from Texaco and is being reconfigured at LLNL; the status of that facility and plans for initial runs will be described. Several different operational scenarios have been modeled. Steady state processes have been modeled with ASPEN PLUS; consideration of steam injection in a batch mode was handled using continuous process modules. A transient model derived from a general purpose packed bed model is being developed which can examine the aspects of steam heating inside the hydrothermal reactor vessel. These models have been applied to pilot and commercial scale scenarios as a function of MSW input parameters and have been used to outline initial overall economic trends. Part of the modeling, an overview of the MSW gasification process and the modeling of the MSW as a process material, was completed by a DOE SERS (Science and Engineering Research Semester) student. The ultimate programmatic goal is the technical demonstration of the gasification of MSW to hydrogen at the laboratory and pilot scale and the economic analysis of the commercial feasibility of such a process.

Developing ecological scenarios for the prospective aquatic risk assessment of pesticides.

PubMed

Rico, Andreu; Van den Brink, Paul J; Gylstra, Ronald; Focks, Andreas; Brock, Theo Cm

2016-07-01

The prospective aquatic environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is generally based on the comparison of predicted environmental concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters with regulatory acceptable concentrations derived from laboratory and/or model ecosystem experiments with aquatic organisms. New improvements in mechanistic effect modeling have allowed a better characterization of the ecological risks of pesticides through the incorporation of biological trait information and landscape parameters to assess individual, population and/or community-level effects and recovery. Similarly to exposure models, ecological models require scenarios that describe the environmental context in which they are applied. In this article, we propose a conceptual framework for the development of ecological scenarios that, when merged with exposure scenarios, will constitute environmental scenarios for prospective aquatic ERA. These "unified" environmental scenarios are defined as the combination of the biotic and abiotic parameters that are required to characterize exposure, (direct and indirect) effects, and recovery of aquatic nontarget species under realistic worst-case conditions. Ideally, environmental scenarios aim to avoid a potential mismatch between the parameter values and the spatial-temporal scales currently used in aquatic exposure and effect modeling. This requires a deeper understanding of the ecological entities we intend to protect, which can be preliminarily addressed by the formulation of ecological scenarios. In this article we present a methodological approach for the development of ecological scenarios and illustrate this approach by a case-study for Dutch agricultural ditches and the example focal species Sialis lutaria. Finally, we discuss the applicability of ecological scenarios in ERA and propose research needs and recommendations for their development and integration with exposure scenarios. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:510-521. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. R.

2013-12-01

In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide a firm basis for future climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, offering RCP/SSP-based scenarios that are not only related to the global New Scenarios Framework, but are also recognised by national policy makers and key stakeholders, via the revised national climate change adaptation strategy. References IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Nakićenović, N. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, 600 pp. Kriegler E et al. (2012) The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Envir. Change 22:807-822. Marttila V et al. (2005) Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, MMM publications 1a/2005, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki, Finland, 280 pp. Moss RH et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-756. Taylor KE et al. (2012) A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. BAMS 93:485-498. van Vuuren DP et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109:5-31. Vautard R et al. (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z

Investigating the feasibility of a reuse scenario for textile fibres recovered from end-of-life tyres.

PubMed

Landi, Daniele; Gigli, Silvia; Germani, Michele; Marconi, Marco

2018-05-01

The management of end-of-life tyres (ELTs) is regulated by several national and international legislations aiming to promote the recovery of materials and energy from this waste. The three main materials used in tyres are considered: rubber (main product), which is currently reused in other closed-loop applications; steel, which is used for the production of virgin materials; and textile fibres (approximately 10% by weight of ELTs), which are mainly incinerated for energy recovery (open-loop scenario). This study aims to propose and validate a new closed-loop scenario for textile fibres based on material reuse for bituminous conglomerates. The final objective is to verify the technical, environmental, financial, and economic feasibility of the proposed treatment process and reuse scenario. After characterization of the textile material, which is required to determine the technological feasibility, a specific process has been developed to clean, compact, and prepare the fibres for subsequent reuse. A life cycle assessment (LCA) has been carried out to quantify the environmental benefits of reusing the fibres. Finally, a cost benefit analysis based on the LCA results was conducted to establish the long-term financial and economic sustainability. From a technological point of view, the tyre textile fibres could be a promising substitute to the reinforcement cellulose commonly used in asphalts as long as the fibres are properly prepared (compaction and pellet production) for application in the standard bituminous conglomerate production process. From an environmental point of view, relevant benefits in terms of global warming potential and acidification potential reduction were observed in comparison with the standard incineration for energy recovery (respectively -86% and -45%). Moreover, the proposed scenario can be considered as financially viable in the medium to long term (cumulative generated cash flow is positive after the 5th year) and economically sustainable (expected net present value of more than €3,000,000 and economic rate of return of approximately 30%). Finally, the sensitivity and risk analyses show that no specific issues are foreseen for the future implementation in real industrial applications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shuttle Abort Flight Management (SAFM) - Application Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, Howard; Straube, Tim; Madsen, Jennifer; Ricard, Mike

2002-01-01

One of the most demanding tasks that must be performed by the Space Shuttle flight crew is the process of determining whether, when and where to abort the vehicle should engine or system failures occur during ascent or entry. Current Shuttle abort procedures involve paging through complicated paper checklists to decide on the type of abort and where to abort. Additional checklists then lead the crew through a series of actions to execute the desired abort. This process is even more difficult and time consuming in the absence of ground communications since the ground flight controllers have the analysis tools and information that is currently not available in the Shuttle cockpit. Crew workload specifically abort procedures will be greatly simplified with the implementation of the Space Shuttle Cockpit Avionics Upgrade (CAU) project. The intent of CAU is to maximize crew situational awareness and reduce flight workload thru enhanced controls and displays, and onboard abort assessment and determination capability. SAFM was developed to help satisfy the CAU objectives by providing the crew with dynamic information about the capability of the vehicle to perform a variety of abort options during ascent and entry. This paper- presents an overview of the SAFM application. As shown in Figure 1, SAFM processes the vehicle navigation state and other guidance information to provide the CAU displays with evaluations of abort options, as well as landing site recommendations. This is accomplished by three main SAFM components: the Sequencer Executive, the Powered Flight Function, and the Glided Flight Function, The Sequencer Executive dispatches the Powered and Glided Flight Functions to evaluate the vehicle's capability to execute the current mission (or current abort), as well as more than IS hypothetical abort options or scenarios. Scenarios are sequenced and evaluated throughout powered and glided flight. Abort scenarios evaluated include Abort to Orbit (ATO), Transatlantic Abort Landing (TAL), East Coast Abort Landing (ECAL) and Return to Launch Site (RTLS). Sequential and simultaneous engine failures are assessed and landing footprint information is provided during actual entry scenarios as well as hypothetical "loss of thrust now" scenarios during ascent.

Scenario prediction of emerging coastal city using CA modeling under different environmental conditions: a case study of Lingang New City, China.

PubMed

Feng, Yongjiu; Liu, Yan

2016-09-01

The world's coastal regions are experiencing rapid urbanization coupled with increased risk of ecological damage and storm surge related to global climate and sea level rising. This urban development issue is particularly important in China, where many emerging coastal cities are being developed. Lingang New City, southeast of Shanghai, is an excellent example of a coastal city that is increasingly vulnerable to environmental change. Sustainable urban development requires planning that classifies and allocates coastal lands using objective procedures that incorporate changing environmental conditions. In this paper, we applied cellular automata (CA) modeling based on self-adaptive genetic algorithm (SAGA) to predict future scenarios and explore sustainable urban development options for Lingang. The CA model was calibrated using the 2005 initial status, 2015 final status, and a set of spatial variables. We implemented specific ecological and environmental conditions as spatial constraints for the model and predicted four 2030 scenarios: (a) an urban planning-oriented Plan Scenario; (b) an ecosystem protection-oriented Eco Scenario; (c) a storm surge-affected Storm Scenario; and (d) a scenario incorporating both ecosystem protection and the effects of storm surge, called the Ecostorm Scenario. The Plan Scenario has been taken as the baseline, with the Lingang urban area increasing from 45.8 km(2) in 2015 to 66.8 km(2) in 2030, accounting for 23.9 % of the entire study area. The simulated urban land size of the Plan Scenario in 2030 was taken as the target to accommodate the projected population increase in this city, which was then applied in the remaining three development scenarios. We used CA modeling to reallocate the urban cells to other unconstrained areas in response to changing spatial constraints. Our predictions should be helpful not only in assessing and adjusting the urban planning schemes for Lingang but also for evaluating urban planning in coastal cities elsewhere.

An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process.

PubMed

Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Soares, C Guedes

2017-10-01

This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The influence of expert opinions on the selection of wastewater treatment alternatives: a group decision-making approach.

PubMed

Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

2013-10-15

The application of multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) to real life decision problems suggests that avoiding the loss of information through scenario-based approaches and including expert opinions in the decision-making process are two major challenges that require more research efforts. Recently, a wastewater treatment technology selection effort has been made with a 'scenario-based' method of MADM. This paper focuses on a novel approach to incorporate expert opinions into the scenario-based decision-making process, as expert opinions play a major role in the selection of treatment technologies. The sets of criteria and the indicators that are used consist of both qualitative and quantitative criteria. The group decision-making (GDM) approach that is implemented for aggregating expert opinions is based on an analytical hierarchy process (AHP), which is the most widely used MADM method. The pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs) for qualitative criteria are formed based on expert opinions, whereas, a novel approach is proposed for generating PCMs for quantitative criteria. It has been determined that the experts largely prefer natural treatment systems because they are more sustainable in any scenario. However, PCMs based on expert opinions suggest that advanced technologies such as the sequencing batch reactor (SBR) can also be appropriate for a given decision scenario. The proposed GDM approach is a rationalized process that will be more appropriate in realistic scenarios where multiple stakeholders with local and regional societal priorities are involved in the selection of treatment technology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

2014-01-01

Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment modelled in the control simulation.

Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

2014-07-01

Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment modeled in the control simulation.

Architectures Toward Reusable Science Data Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moses, John Firor

2014-01-01

Science Data Systems (SDS) comprise an important class of data processing systems that support product generation from remote sensors and in-situ observations. These systems enable research into new science data products, replication of experiments and verification of results. NASA has been building systems for satellite data processing since the first Earth observing satellites launched and is continuing development of systems to support NASA science research and NOAA's Earth observing satellite operations. The basic data processing workflows and scenarios continue to be valid for remote sensor observations research as well as for the complex multi-instrument operational satellite data systems being built today.

Get People Talking: Sharing Tsunami Science Beyond the Web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D. M.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, W. R.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Barberopoulou, A.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V. V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2016-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, a collaborative product between the USGS, NOAA, the California Geological Survey, Cal OES and other agencies and institutions, modeled the potential implications of a plausible tsunami caused by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake off the Alaskan Peninsula. A multi-disciplinary team of researchers and practitioners looked at what such an event could mean to the coastal residents, visitors, infrastructure, economy, and environment in California. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process was evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; it was the first time that a USGS scenario of that scale was formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The scenario was published as a USGS Open-File Report (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/) and as a fact sheet. The report's website received over 1 million hits in the first year, demonstrating that the project received a great deal of attention. To make sure the information was accessible to the key users, we also held a series of regional workshops. These workshops brought together project scientists with emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities. Each workshop had about 10 SAFRR project participants and an audience of about 40-100 potential users. The half-day workshops began with presentations on the scenario results and also included significant time for facilitated discussions to identify practical problems and propose solutions to mitigate the hazards. Two of the key lessons learned included: a) recognizing the value of having scenario developers personally present the scenario to user groups and b) stimulating dialogue among the practitioners to solve problems.

TERRORIST PROTECTION PLANNING USING A RELATIVE RISK REDUCTION APPROACH, SESSION VIII: TECHNOLOGY FORUM FOCUS GROUPS.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

INDUSI,J.P.

2003-06-16

Since the events of 9/11, there have been considerable concerns and associated efforts to prevent or respond to acts of terrorism. Very often we hear calls to reduce the threat from or correct vulnerabilities to various terrorist acts. Others fall victim to anxiety over potential scenarios with the gravest of consequences involving hundreds of thousands of casualties. The problem is complicated by the fact that planners have limited, albeit in some cases significant, resources and less than perfect intelligence on potential terrorist plans. However, valuable resources must be used prudently to reduce the overall risk to the nation. A systematicmore » approach to this process of asset allocation is to reduce the overall risk and not just an individual element of risk such as vulnerabilities. Hence, we define risk as a function of three variables: the threat (the likelihood and scenario of the terrorist act), the vulnerability (the vulnerability of potential targets to the threat), and the consequences (health and safety, economic, etc.) resulting from a successful terrorist scenario. Both the vulnerability and consequences from a postulated adversary scenario can be reasonably well estimated. However, the threat likelihood and scenarios are much more difficult to estimate. A possible path forward is to develop scenarios for each potential target in question using experts from many disciplines. This should yield a finite but large number of target-scenario pairs. The vulnerabilities and consequences for each are estimated and then ranked relative to one another. The resulting relative risk ranking will have targets near the top of the ranking for which the threat is estimated to be more likely, the vulnerability greatest, and the consequences the most grave. In the absence of perfect intelligence, this may be the best we can do.« less

Economic and environmental evaluation model for selecting the optimum design of green roof systems in elementary schools.

PubMed

Kim, JiMin; Hong, TaeHoon; Koo, Choong-Wan

2012-08-07

Green-roof systems offer various benefits to man and nature, such as establishing ecological environments, improving landscape and air quality, and offering pleasant living environments. This study aimed to develop an optimal-scenario selection model that considers both the economic and the environmental effect in applying GRSs to educational facilities. The following process was carried out: (i) 15 GRSs scenarios were established by combining three soil and five plant types and (ii) the results of the life cycle CO(2) analyses with the GRSs scenarios were converted to an economic value using certified emission reductions (CERs) carbon credits. Life cycle cost (LCC) analyses were performed based on these results. The results showed that when considering only the currently realized economic value, the conventional roof system is superior to the GRSs. However, the LCC analysis that included the environmental value, revealed that compared to the conventional roof system, the following six GRSs scenarios are superior (cost reduction; reduction ratio; in descending order): scenarios 13 ($195,229; 11.0%), 3 ($188,178; 10.6%), 8 ($181,558; 10.3%), 12 ($130,464; 7.4%), 2 ($124,566; 7.0%), and 7 ($113,931; 6.4%). Although the effect is relatively small in terms of cost reduction, environmental value attributes cannot be ignored in terms of the reduction ratio.

Evaluating hydrological response to forecasted land-use change—scenario testing with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kepner, William G.; Semmens, Darius J.; Hernandez, Mariano; Goodrich, David C.

2009-01-01

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.

FINDING A METHOD FOR THE MADNESS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF STRATEGIC DESIGN METHODOLOGIES

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

FINDING A METHOD FOR THE MADNESS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF STRATEGIC DESIGN METHODOLOGIES BY AMANDA DONNELLY A THESIS...work develops a comparative model for strategic design methodologies, focusing on the primary elements of vision, time, process, communication and...collaboration, and risk assessment. My analysis dissects and compares three potential design methodologies including, net assessment, scenarios and

A web based growth and yield systems for southeastern pine and hardwood stands

Treesearch

Jacob R. Beard; Thomas G. Matney; Emily B. Schultz; Stephen C. Grado; Charles O. Sabatia

2016-01-01

Faced with the challenges of maintaining customer-specified objectives and meeting deadlines, forest land managers must integrate various mensurational information sources for developing management scenarios. Cost efficient measures are a consideration to save both time and money for a client. While inventory data collection is time and money intensive, data processing...

Planning in the 90's for Community Colleges: Coping with Rapid Change by Linking Futures Research with Professional Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Diana K.

The rate of the change now occurring outside of community colleges has made long-range planning an especially difficult task. Futures research, which attempts to forecast future scenarios by studying societal, economic, and demographic trends, can be used effectively to facilitate the institutional planning process by anticipating both internal…

TRU Waste Management Program cost/schedule optimization analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Detamore, J.A.; Raudenbush, M.H.; Wolaver, R.W.

1985-10-01

The cost/schedule optimization task is a necessary function to insure that program goals and plans are optimized from a cost and schedule aspect. Results of this study will offer DOE information with which it can establish, within institutional constraints, the most efficient program for the long-term management and disposal of contact handled transuranic waste (CH-TRU). To this end, a comprehensive review of program cost/schedule tradeoffs has been made, to identify any major cost saving opportunities that may be realized by modification of current program plans. It was decided that all promising scenarios would be explored, and institutional limitations to implementationmore » would be described. Since a virtually limitless number of possible scenarios can be envisioned, it was necessary to distill these possibilities into a manageable number of alternatives. The resultant scenarios were described in the cost/schedule strategy and work plan document. Each scenario was compared with the base case: waste processing at the originating site; transport of CH-TRU wastes in TRUPACT; shipment of drums in 6-Packs; 25 year stored waste workoff; WIPP operational 10/88, with all sites shipping to WIPP beginning 10/88; and no processing at WIPP. Major savings were identified in two alternate scenarios: centralize waste processing at INEL and eliminate rail shipment of TRUPACT. No attempt was made to calculate savings due to combination of scenarios. 1 ref., 5 figs., 1 tab. (MHB)« less

Modeling a terminology-based electronic nursing record system: an object-oriented approach.

PubMed

Park, Hyeoun-Ae; Cho, InSook; Byeun, NamSoo

2007-10-01

The aim of this study was to present our perspectives on healthcare information analysis at a conceptual level and the lessons learned from our experience with the development of a terminology-based enterprise electronic nursing record system - which was one of components in an EMR system at a tertiary teaching hospital in Korea - using an object-oriented system analysis and design concept. To ensure a systematic approach and effective collaboration, the department of nursing constituted a system modeling team comprising a project manager, systems analysts, user representatives, an object-oriented methodology expert, and healthcare informaticists (including the authors). A rational unified process (RUP) and the Unified Modeling Language were used as a development process and for modeling notation, respectively. From the scenario and RUP approach, user requirements were formulated into use case sets and the sequence of activities in the scenario was depicted in an activity diagram. The structure of the system was presented in a class diagram. This approach allowed us to identify clearly the structural and behavioral states and important factors of a terminology-based ENR system (e.g., business concerns and system design concerns) according to the viewpoints of both domain and technical experts.

Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

2017-04-01

Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the significant impact on future precipitation development on the risk of not achieving nutrient criteria of the good ecological water quality status of surface waters. Policy measures show relatively low impacts for nitrogen, while they may highly affect the phosphorus emissions and hence the compliance with environmental quality standards for phosphate phosphorus.

Investigating GHGs and VOCs emissions from a shale gas industry in Germany and the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremonese, L.; Weger, L.; Denier Van Der Gon, H.; Bartels, M. P.; Butler, T. M.

2017-12-01

The shale gas and shale oil production boom experienced in the US led the country to a significant reduction of foreign fuel imports and an increase in domestic energy security. Several European countries are considering to extract domestic shale gas reserves that might serve as a bridge in the transition to renewables. Nevertheless, the generation of shale gas leads to emissions of CH4 and pollutants such as PM, NOx and VOCs, which in turn impact local and regional air quality and climate. Results from numerous studies investigating greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions from shale oil and shale gas extraction in North America can help in estimating the impact of such industrial activity elsewhere, when local regulations are taken into consideration. In order to investigate the extent of emissions and their distribution from a potential shale gas industry in Germany and the United Kingdom, we develop three drilling scenarios compatible with desired national gas outputs based on available geological information on potential productivity ranges of the reservoirs. Subsequently we assign activity data and emissions factors to wells under development, as well as to producing wells (from activities at the well site up until processing plants) to enable emissions quantification. We then define emissions scenarios to explore different shale gas development pathways: 1) implementation of "high-technology" devices and recovery practices (low emissions); 2) implementation of "low-technology" devices and recovery practices (high emissions), and 3) intermediate scenarios reflecting assumptions on local and national settings, or extremely high emission events (e.g. super-emitters); all with high and low boundaries of confidence driven by uncertainties. A comparison of these unconventional gas production scenarios to conventional natural gas production in Germany and the United Kingdom is also planned. The aim of this work is to highlight important variables and their ranges, to promote discussion and communication of potential impacts, and to construct possible visions for a future shale gas development in the two study countries. In a follow-up study, the impact of pollutant emissions from these scenarios on air quality will be explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) model.

Real-time high-level video understanding using data warehouse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lienard, Bruno; Desurmont, Xavier; Barrie, Bertrand; Delaigle, Jean-Francois

2006-02-01

High-level Video content analysis such as video-surveillance is often limited by computational aspects of automatic image understanding, i.e. it requires huge computing resources for reasoning processes like categorization and huge amount of data to represent knowledge of objects, scenarios and other models. This article explains how to design and develop a "near real-time adaptive image datamart", used, as a decisional support system for vision algorithms, and then as a mass storage system. Using RDF specification as storing format of vision algorithms meta-data, we can optimise the data warehouse concepts for video analysis, add some processes able to adapt the current model and pre-process data to speed-up queries. In this way, when new data is sent from a sensor to the data warehouse for long term storage, using remote procedure call embedded in object-oriented interfaces to simplified queries, they are processed and in memory data-model is updated. After some processing, possible interpretations of this data can be returned back to the sensor. To demonstrate this new approach, we will present typical scenarios applied to this architecture such as people tracking and events detection in a multi-camera network. Finally we will show how this system becomes a high-semantic data container for external data-mining.

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

PubMed

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complexity associated with the optimisation of capability options in military operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincombe, A.; Bender, A.; Allen, G.

2005-12-01

In the context of a military operation, even if the intended actions, the geographic location, and the capabilities of the opposition are known, there are still some critical uncertainties that could have a major impact on the effectiveness of a given set of capabilities. These uncertainties include unpredictable events and the response alternatives that are available to the command and control elements of the capability set. They greatly complicate any a priori mathematical description. In a forecasting approach, the most likely future might be chosen and a solution sought that is optimal for that case. With scenario analysis, futures are proposed on the basis of critical uncertainties and the option that is most robust is chosen. We use scenario analysis but our approach is different in that we focus on the complexity and use the coupling between scenarios and options to create information on ideal options. The approach makes use of both soft and hard operations research methods, with subject matter expertise being used to define plausible responses to scenarios. In each scenario, uncertainty affects only a subset of the system-inherent variables and the variables that describe system-environment interactions. It is this scenario-specific reduction of variables that makes the problem mathematically tractable. The process we define is significantly different to existing scenario analysis processes, so we have named it adversarial scenario analysis. It can be used in conjunction with other methods, including recent improvements to the scenario analysis process. To illustrate the approach, we undertake a tactical level scenario analysis for a logistics problem that is defined by a network, expected throughputs to end users, the transport capacity available, the infrastructure at the nodes and the capacities of roads, stocks etc. The throughput capacity, e.g. the effectiveness, of the system relies on all of these variables and on the couplings between them. The system is initially in equilibrium for a given level of demand. However, different, and simpler, solutions emerge as the balance of couplings and the importance of variables change. The scenarios describe such changes in conditions. For each scenario it was possible to define measures that describe the differences between options. As with agent-based distillations, the solution is essentially qualitative and exploratory, bringing awareness of possible future difficulties and of the capabilities that are necessary if we are to deal successfully with those difficulties.

New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2015-12-01

Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

Summary Reporting for a Linked Interaction Design-Scrum Approach: How Much Modeling Is Useful?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keenan, Frank; Damdul, Namgyal; Kelly, Sandra; Connolly, David

Identifying the minimum beneficial modeling to support an agile development team is crucial. Often, story cards arranged on wall charts or spontaneously drawn diagrams provide sufficient detail to allow a team to understand an emerging problem. However, what is beneficial when a new stakeholder joins a team after development has commenced and needs to have project background and progress reported? This poster reports on the models produced by a process combining aspects of Interaction Design (ID) and Scrum for internet development in such a scenario.

Future electro-optical sensors and processing in urban operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grönwall, Christina; Schwering, Piet B.; Rantakokko, Jouni; Benoist, Koen W.; Kemp, Rob A. W.; Steinvall, Ove; Letalick, Dietmar; Björkert, Stefan

2013-10-01

In the electro-optical sensors and processing in urban operations (ESUO) study we pave the way for the European Defence Agency (EDA) group of Electro-Optics experts (IAP03) for a common understanding of the optimal distribution of processing functions between the different platforms. Combinations of local, distributed and centralized processing are proposed. In this way one can match processing functionality to the required power, and available communication systems data rates, to obtain the desired reaction times. In the study, three priority scenarios were defined. For these scenarios, present-day and future sensors and signal processing technologies were studied. The priority scenarios were camp protection, patrol and house search. A method for analyzing information quality in single and multi-sensor systems has been applied. A method for estimating reaction times for transmission of data through the chain of command has been proposed and used. These methods are documented and can be used to modify scenarios, or be applied to other scenarios. Present day data processing is organized mainly locally. Very limited exchange of information with other platforms is present; this is performed mainly at a high information level. Main issues that arose from the analysis of present-day systems and methodology are the slow reaction time due to the limited field of view of present-day sensors and the lack of robust automated processing. Efficient handover schemes between wide and narrow field of view sensors may however reduce the delay times. The main effort in the study was in forecasting the signal processing of EO-sensors in the next ten to twenty years. Distributed processing is proposed between hand-held and vehicle based sensors. This can be accompanied by cloud processing on board several vehicles. Additionally, to perform sensor fusion on sensor data originating from different platforms, and making full use of UAV imagery, a combination of distributed and centralized processing is essential. There is a central role for sensor fusion of heterogeneous sensors in future processing. The changes that occur in the urban operations of the future due to the application of these new technologies will be the improved quality of information, with shorter reaction time, and with lower operator load.

Developing and Optimizing Applications in Hadoop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kothuri, P.; Garcia, D.; Hermans, J.

2017-10-01

This contribution is about sharing our recent experiences of building Hadoop based application. Hadoop ecosystem now offers myriad of tools which can overwhelm new users, yet there are successful ways these tools can be leveraged to solve problems. We look at factors to consider when using Hadoop to model and store data, best practices for moving data in and out of the system and common processing patterns, at each stage relating with the real world experience gained while developing such application. We share many of the design choices, tools developed and how to profile a distributed application which can be applied for other scenarios as well. In conclusion, the goal of the presentation is to provide guidance to architect Hadoop based application and share some of the reusable components developed in this process.

Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

2012-01-01

Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

The health impacts of globalisation: a conceptual framework

PubMed Central

Huynen, Maud MTE; Martens, Pim; Hilderink, Henk BM

2005-01-01

This paper describes a conceptual framework for the health implications of globalisation. The framework is developed by first identifying the main determinants of population health and the main features of the globalisation process. The resulting conceptual model explicitly visualises that globalisation affects the institutional, economic, social-cultural and ecological determinants of population health, and that the globalisation process mainly operates at the contextual level, while influencing health through its more distal and proximal determinants. The developed framework provides valuable insights in how to organise the complexity involved in studying the health effects resulting from globalisation. It could, therefore, give a meaningful contribution to further empirical research by serving as a 'think-model' and provides a basis for the development of future scenarios on health. PMID:16078989

Impact of Unconventional Energy Development using Hydraulic Fracturing on Louisiana Water Resources Availability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unruh, H. G., Sr.; Habib, E. H.; Borrok, D. M.

2017-12-01

Unconventional oil and gas extraction around United States has been deployed significantly in the recent years. The current study focuses on the impact of Hydraulic fracturing (HF) on the sustainability of water resources in Louisiana. This impact is measured by quantifying the stress for current and future scenarios of HF water use in the two-main shale plays in Louisiana, the Haynesville and Tuscaloosa. The assessment is conducted at the HUC-12 fine catchment spatial scale. Initially, sectored stress metrics were calculated for surface and groundwater, respectively, without including HF water use. Demand sectors involved in this first stress estimation are power generation, public supply, industrial, etc. Once both stress metrics were estimated with the reported water sources and uses in Louisiana corresponding to the 2010 year, several scenarios for both sources were evaluated. In the first scenario, a peak year (2011) of HF water use was added as a water demand new category into the stress calculation matrices. The results indicate that a significant variability in the calculated stress metric with and without HF is reflected only for the groundwater sector. On the other hand, surface water sector doesn't seem to be affected for the HF water use. However, this apparent abundant surface water in the catchment, the location of the wells is not always adjacent to the body of water, and then trucking or piping of water may be required. For this reason, availability of groundwater in situ is a relevant factor in terms of production cost. Additional tested scenarios consist of increasing the number of wells in both shale play locations. Existing wells scenario calculates the stress including the water use of the total number of wells that currently exist in both shale plays in a short period (one year). The other additional tested scenario consists of increase of 100% of the required number of wells to extract the expected total shale play capacity. Results of the additional scenarios follow the same pattern as the first scenario. This analysis can be useful for water management authorities to consider recycled flow-back as an alternative resource for HF water use. Additionally, a cost analysis can be developed in a future study analyzing the economic feasibility of treating and reusing the wastewater as a source in the HF process.