Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales.

PubMed

Adkin, A; Brouwer, A; Simons, R R L; Smith, R P; Arnold, M E; Broughan, J; Kosmider, R; Downs, S H

2016-01-01

Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What's wrong with hazard-ranking systems? An expository note.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

2009-07-01

Two commonly recommended principles for allocating risk management resources to remediate uncertain hazards are: (1) select a subset to maximize risk-reduction benefits (e.g., maximize the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility of the selected risk-reducing activities), and (2) assign priorities to risk-reducing opportunities and then select activities from the top of the priority list down until no more can be afforded. When different activities create uncertain but correlated risk reductions, as is often the case in practice, then these principles are inconsistent: priority scoring and ranking fails to maximize risk-reduction benefits. Real-world risk priority scoring systems used in homeland security and terrorism risk assessment, environmental risk management, information system vulnerability rating, business risk matrices, and many other important applications do not exploit correlations among risk-reducing opportunities or optimally diversify risk-reducing investments. As a result, they generally make suboptimal risk management recommendations. Applying portfolio optimization methods instead of risk prioritization ranking, rating, or scoring methods can achieve greater risk-reduction value for resources spent.

Improving prediction of outcomes in African Americans with normal stress echocardiograms using a risk scoring system.

PubMed

Sutter, David A; Thomaides, Athanasios; Hornsby, Kyle; Mahenthiran, Jothiharan; Feigenbaum, Harvey; Sawada, Stephen G

2013-06-01

Cardiovascular mortality is high in African Americans, and those with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at increased risk. The aim of this study was to develop a risk scoring system to improve the prediction of cardiovascular events in African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography. Clinical data and rest echocardiographic measurements were obtained in 548 consecutive African Americans with normal results on rest and stress echocardiography and ejection fractions ≥50%. Patients were followed for myocardial infarction and death for 3 years. Predictors of cardiovascular events were determined with Cox regression, and hazard ratios were used to determine the number of points in the risk score attributed to each independent predictor. During follow-up of 3 years, 47 patients (8.6%) had events. Five variables-age (≥45 years in men, ≥55 years in women), history of coronary disease, history of smoking, left ventricular hypertrophy, and exercise intolerance (<7 METs in men, <5 METs in women, or need for dobutamine stress)-were independent predictors of events. A risk score was derived for each patient (ranging from 0 to 8 risk points). The area under the curve for the risk score was 0.82 with the optimum cut-off risk score of 6. Among patients with risk scores ≥6, 30% had events, compared with 3% with risk score <6 (p <0.001). In conclusion, African Americans with normal results on stress echocardiography remain at significant risk for cardiovascular events. A risk score can be derived from clinical and echocardiographic variables, which can accurately distinguish high- and low-risk patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simple Scoring System and Artificial Neural Network for Knee Osteoarthritis Risk Prediction: A Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Yoo, Tae Keun; Kim, Deok Won; Choi, Soo Beom; Oh, Ein; Park, Jee Soo

2016-01-01

Background Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease of adults worldwide. Since the treatments for advanced radiographic knee OA are limited, clinicians face a significant challenge of identifying patients who are at high risk of OA in a timely and appropriate way. Therefore, we developed a simple self-assessment scoring system and an improved artificial neural network (ANN) model for knee OA. Methods The Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES V-1) data were used to develop a scoring system and ANN for radiographic knee OA. A logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of the scoring system. The ANN was constructed using 1777 participants and validated internally on 888 participants in the KNHANES V-1. The predictors of the scoring system were selected as the inputs of the ANN. External validation was performed using 4731 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic was calculated to compare the prediction models. Results The scoring system and ANN were built using the independent predictors including sex, age, body mass index, educational status, hypertension, moderate physical activity, and knee pain. In the internal validation, both scoring system and ANN predicted radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.73 versus 0.81, p<0.001) and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.88 versus 0.94, p<0.001) with good discriminative ability. In the external validation, both scoring system and ANN showed lower discriminative ability in predicting radiographic knee OA (AUC 0.62 versus 0.67, p<0.001) and symptomatic knee OA (AUC 0.70 versus 0.76, p<0.001). Conclusions The self-assessment scoring system may be useful for identifying the adults at high risk for knee OA. The performance of the scoring system is improved significantly by the ANN. We provided an ANN calculator to simply predict the knee OA risk. PMID:26859664

Validation of risk assessment scoring systems for an audit of elective surgery for gastrointestinal cancer in elderly patients: an audit.

PubMed

Wakabayashi, Hisao; Sano, Takanori; Yachida, Shinichi; Okano, Keiichi; Izuishi, Kunihiko; Suzuki, Yasuyuki

2007-10-01

The goal of this study was to validate the usefulness of risk assessment scoring systems for a surgical audit in elective digestive surgery for elderly patients. The validated scoring systems used were the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and the Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality (P-POSSUM). This study involved 153 consecutive patients aged 75 years and older who underwent elective gastric or colorectal surgery between July 2004 and June 2006. A retrospective analysis was performed on data collected prior to each surgery. The predicted mortality and morbidity risks were calculated using each of the scoring systems and were used to obtain the observed/predicted (O/E) mortality and morbidity ratios. New logistic regression equations for morbidity and mortality were then calculated using the scores from the POSSUM system and applied retrospectively. The O/E ratio for morbidity obtained from POSSUM score was 0.23. The O/E ratios for mortality from the POSSUM score and the P-POSSUM were 0.15 and 0.38, respectively. Utilizing the new equations using scores from the POSSUM, the O/E ratio increased to 0.88. Both the POSSUM and P-POSSUM over-predicted the morbidity and mortality in elective gastrointestinal surgery for malignant tumors in elderly patients. However, if a surgical unit makes appropriate calculations using its own patient series and updates these equations, the POSSUM system can be useful in the risk assessment for surgery in elderly patients.

Quantifying Risk of Financial Incapacity and Financial Exploitation in Community-dwelling Older Adults: Utility of a Scoring System for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Peter A; Gross, Evan; Ficker, Lisa J

2018-06-08

This work examines the clinical utility of the scoring system for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale (LFDRS) and its usefulness for decision making capacity and financial exploitation. Objective 1 was to examine the clinical utility of a person centered, empirically supported, financial decision making scale. Objective 2 was to determine whether the risk-scoring system created for this rating scale is sufficiently accurate for the use of cutoff scores in cases of decisional capacity and cases of suspected financial exploitation. Objective 3 was to examine whether cognitive decline and decisional impairment predicted suspected financial exploitation. Two hundred independently living, non-demented community-dwelling older adults comprised the sample. Participants completed the rating scale and other cognitive measures. Receiver operating characteristic curves were in the good to excellent range for decisional capacity scoring, and in the fair to good range for financial exploitation. Analyses supported the conceptual link between decision making deficits and risk for exploitation, and supported the use of the risk-scoring system in a community-based population. This study adds to the empirical evidence supporting the use of the rating scale as a clinical tool assessing risk for financial decisional impairment and/or financial exploitation.

Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

PubMed Central

Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

2015-01-01

International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

Personalized Risk Scoring for Critical Care Prognosis Using Mixtures of Gaussian Processes.

PubMed

Alaa, Ahmed M; Yoon, Jinsung; Hu, Scott; van der Schaar, Mihaela

2018-01-01

In this paper, we develop a personalized real-time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs; the proposed risk scoring system ensures timely intensive care unit admissions for clinically deteriorating patients. The risk scoring system is based on the idea of sequential hypothesis testing under an uncertain time horizon. The system learns a set of latent patient subtypes from the offline electronic health record data, and trains a mixture of Gaussian Process experts, where each expert models the physiological data streams associated with a specific patient subtype. Transfer learning techniques are used to learn the relationship between a patient's latent subtype and her static admission information (e.g., age, gender, transfer status, ICD-9 codes, etc). Experiments conducted on data from a heterogeneous cohort of 6321 patients admitted to Ronald Reagan UCLA medical center show that our score significantly outperforms the currently deployed risk scores, such as the Rothman index, MEWS, APACHE, and SOFA scores, in terms of timeliness, true positive rate, and positive predictive value. Our results reflect the importance of adopting the concepts of personalized medicine in critical care settings; significant accuracy and timeliness gains can be achieved by accounting for the patients' heterogeneity. The proposed risk scoring methodology can confer huge clinical and social benefits on a massive number of critically ill inpatients who exhibit adverse outcomes including, but not limited to, cardiac arrests, respiratory arrests, and septic shocks.

[Cardiovascular risk by Framingham and SCORE in patients 40-65 years old].

PubMed

González, Carmen; Rodilla, Enrique; Costa, José A; Justicia, Jorge; Pascual, José M

2006-04-15

The aim of this study was to compare the clinical and treatment implications of 2 cardiovascular risk stratification systems in a population of patients 40-65 years old. 929 non diabetic patients (40-65 years old) (51% female) with no evidence of previous cardiovascular disease were included in the study. The risk of cardiovascular death was assessed with the charts of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and coronary risk by the Framingham function (National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults -NCEP-ATP-III-). Patients were considered of high risk if risk of cardiovascular death was >or= 5% and coronary risk was > 20%, respectively. 4.1% of patients were considered as high risk by SCORE and 2.5% by Framingham. Only 0.2% of females were classified as high risk with either system. 8.2% and 4.8% of male population were considered as high risk by SCORE and Framingham, respectively. There was a low level of concordance between both systems. Patients classified as high risk by SCORE but not by Framingham were older, smoke less and had a better lipid profile. According to European Guidelines 28% of male and 23% of female were candidates to hypolipemic treatment, that proportion was higher, 43% of males and 28% of females, by NCEP-ATP-III guidelines. In Spanish patients 40-65 years old, SCORE charts almost duplicate the number of high risk individuals compared to Framingham. although the number of patients candidates to hypolipemic treatment is lower with the European than ATP-III guidelines. Differences were more evident in male.

External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p<0.001)/GBS = 0.810 (CI: 0.744-0.877; p->0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; p<0.001)], whereas only CRS achieved significance in identifying re-bleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

An update on risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis assessed using MRI-based semiquantitative grading methods.

PubMed

Alizai, Hamza; Roemer, Frank W; Hayashi, Daichi; Crema, Michel D; Felson, David T; Guermazi, Ali

2015-03-01

Arthroscopy-based semiquantitative scoring systems such as Outerbridge and Noyes' scores were the first to be developed for the purpose of grading cartilage defects. As magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) became available for evaluation of the osteoarthritic knee joint, these systems were adapted for use with MRI. Later on, grading methods such as the Whole Organ Magnetic Resonance Score, the Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score and the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score were designed specifically for performing whole-organ assessment of the knee joint structures, including cartilage. Cartilage grades on MRI obtained with these scoring systems represent optimal outcome measures for longitudinal studies, and are designed to enhance understanding of the knee osteoarthritis disease process. The purpose of this narrative review is to describe cartilage assessment in knee osteoarthritis using currently available MRI-based semiquantitative whole-organ scoring systems, and to provide an update on the risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis as assessed with these scoring systems.

Recognition of Atypical Symptoms of Acute Myocardial Infarction: Development and Validation of a Risk Scoring System.

PubMed

Li, Polly W C; Yu, Doris S F

Atypical symptom presentation in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is associated with longer delay in care seeking and poorer prognosis. Symptom recognition in these patients is a challenging task. Our purpose in this risk prediction model development study was to develop and validate a risk scoring system for estimating cumulative risk for atypical AMI presentation. A consecutive sample was recruited for the developmental (n = 300) and validation (n = 97) cohorts. Symptom experience was measured with the validated Chinese version of the Symptoms of Acute Coronary Syndromes Inventory. Potential predictors were identified from the literature. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify significant predictors. A risk scoring system was then constructed by assigning weights to each significant predictor according to their b coefficients. Five independent predictors for atypical symptom presentation were older age (≥75 years), female gender, diabetes mellitus, history of AMI, and absence of hyperlipidemia. The Hosmer and Lemeshow test (χ6 = 4.47, P = .62) indicated that this predictive model was adequate to predict the outcome. Acceptable discrimination was demonstrated, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.82) (P < .001). The predictive power of this risk scoring system was confirmed in the validation cohort. Atypical AMI presentation is common. A simple risk scoring system developed on the basis of the 5 identified predictors can raise awareness of atypical AMI presentation and promote symptom recognition by estimating the cumulative risk for an individual to present with atypical AMI symptoms.

Proposed prognostic scoring system evaluating risk factors for biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer after salvage radiation therapy.

PubMed

Lee, Richard J; Tzou, Katherine S; Heckman, Michael G; Hobbs, Corey J; Rawal, Bhupendra; Diehl, Nancy N; Peterson, Jennifer L; Paryani, Nitesh N; Ko, Stephen J; Daugherty, Larry C; Vallow, Laura A; Wong, William; Schild, Steven; Pisansky, Thomas M; Buskirk, Steven J

2016-08-01

To update a previously proposed prognostic scoring system that predicts risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) after salvage radiation therapy (SRT) for recurrent prostate cancer when using additional patients and a PSA value of 0.2 ng/mL and rising as the definition of BCR. We included 577 patients who received SRT for a rising PSA after radical prostatectomy in this retrospective cohort study. Clinical, pathological, and SRT characteristics were evaluated for association with BCR using relative risks (RRs) from multivariable Cox regression models. With a median follow-up of 5.5 years after SRT, 354 patients (61%) experienced BCR. At 5 years after SRT, 40% of patients were free of BCR. Independent associations with BCR were identified for the PSA level before SRT (RR [doubling]: 1.25, P < 0.001), pathological tumour stage (RR [T3a vs T2] 1.21, P = 0.19; RR [T3b/T4 vs T2] 2.09, P < 0.001; overall P < 0.001), Gleason score (RR [7 vs <7] 1.63, P < 0.001; RR [8-10 vs <7] 2.28, P < 0.001; overall P < 0.001), and surgical margin status (RR [positive vs negative] 0.71, P = 0.003). We combined these four variables to create a prognostic scoring system that predicted BCR risk with a c-index of 0.66. Scores ranged from 0 to 7, and 5-year freedom from BCR for different levels of the score was as follows: Score = 0-1: 66%, Score = 2: 46%, Score = 3: 28%, Score = 4: 19%, and Score = 5-7: 15%. We developed a scoring system that provides an estimation of the risk of BCR after SRT. These findings will be useful for patients and physicians in decision making for radiation therapy in the salvage setting. © 2015 The Authors BJU International © 2015 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A new scoring system (DAIGA) for predicting bleeding complications in atrial fibrillation patients after drug-eluting stent implantation with triple antithrombotic therapy.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Norihiro; Yamawaki, Masahiro; Nakano, Masatsugu; Hirano, Keisuke; Araki, Motoharu; Takimura, Hideyuki; Sakamoto, Yasunari; Mori, Shinsuke; Tsutsumi, Masakazu; Ito, Yoshiaki

2016-11-15

No scoring system for evaluating the bleeding risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients after drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation with triple antithrombotic therapy (TAT) is available. We aimed to develop a new scoring system for predicting bleeding complications in AF patients after DES implantation with TAT. Between April 2007 and April 2014, 227 AF patients undergoing DES implantation with TAT were enrolled. Bleeding incidence defined as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium criteria≥2 was investigated and predictors of bleeding complications were evaluated using multivariate analysis. Bleeding complications occurred in 58 patients (25.6%) during follow-up. Multivariate analysis revealed dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) continuation (OR 3.33, P=0.01), age>75 (OR 2.14, P=0.037), international normalized ratio>2.2 (OR 5.82, P<0.001), gastrointestinal ulcer history (OR 3.06, P=0.037), and anemia (OR 2.15, P=0.042) as predictors of major bleeding complications. A score was created using the weighted points proportional to the beta regression coefficient of each variable. The DAIGA score showed better predictive ability for bleeding complications than the HAS-BLED score (AUC: 0.79 vs. 0.62, P=0.0003). Bleeding incidence was well stratified: 17.8% in low-risk (scores 0-1), 55.5% in moderate-risk (2-3), and 83.0% in high-risk (4-7) patients (P<0.001). This scoring system is useful for predicting bleeding complications and risk stratification of AF patients after DES implantation with TAT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group.

PubMed

Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A N; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L; Bennett, John M; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

2015-02-01

International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%-20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34(+)) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34(+) peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34(+) blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

A scoring system based on artificial neural network for predicting 10-year survival in stage II A colon cancer patients after radical surgery.

PubMed

Peng, Jian-Hong; Fang, Yu-Jing; Li, Cai-Xia; Ou, Qing-Jian; Jiang, Wu; Lu, Shi-Xun; Lu, Zhen-Hai; Li, Pei-Xing; Yun, Jing-Ping; Zhang, Rong-Xin; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Wan, De Sen

2016-04-19

Nearly 20% patients with stage II A colon cancer will develop recurrent disease post-operatively. The present study aims to develop a scoring system based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting 10-year survival outcome. The clinical and molecular data of 117 stage II A colon cancer patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were used for training set and test set; poor pathological grading (score 49), reduced expression of TGFBR2 (score 33), over-expression of TGF-β (score 45), MAPK (score 32), pin1 (score 100), β-catenin in tumor tissue (score 50) and reduced expression of TGF-β in normal mucosa (score 22) were selected as the prognostic risk predictors. According to the developed scoring system, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups, which were supposed with higher, moderate and lower risk levels. As a result, for the 3 subgroups, the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 16.7%, 62.9% and 100% (P < 0.001); and the 10-year disease free survival (DFS) rates were 16.7%, 61.8% and 98.8% (P < 0.001) respectively. It showed that this scoring system for stage II A colon cancer could help to predict long-term survival and screen out high-risk individuals for more vigorous treatment.

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

PubMed

Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (P<.001). The difference between the combined report and usual care was significant (P<.001) and directly proportional to baseline risk. The three-level risk classification did not reveal approximately 57.3% of the intervention effect detected by the risk score. The risk score also was sufficiently sensitive to detect the intervention effect within the subset of hypertensive patients (n=112; P=.001). As an outcome measure in intervention trials, the finely grained risk score is more sensitive than the trinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

A simple scoring system for predicting early major complications in spine surgery: the cumulative effect of age and size of surgery.

PubMed

Brasil, Albert Vincent Berthier; Teles, Alisson R; Roxo, Marcelo Ricardo; Schuster, Marcelo Neutzling; Zauk, Eduardo Ballverdu; Barcellos, Gabriel da Costa; Costa, Pablo Ramon Fruett da; Ferreira, Nelson Pires; Kraemer, Jorge Luiz; Ferreira, Marcelo Paglioli; Gobbato, Pedro Luis; Worm, Paulo Valdeci

2016-10-01

To analyze the cumulative effect of risk factors associated with early major complications in postoperative spine surgery. Retrospective analysis of 583 surgically-treated patients. Early "major" complications were defined as those that may lead to permanent detrimental effects or require further significant intervention. A balanced risk score was built using multiple logistic regression. Ninety-two early major complications occurred in 76 patients (13%). Age > 60 years and surgery of three or more levels proved to be significant independent risk factors in the multivariate analysis. The balanced scoring system was defined as: 0 points (no risk factor), 2 points (1 factor) or 4 points (2 factors). The incidence of early major complications in each category was 7% (0 points), 15% (2 points) and 29% (4 points) respectively. This balanced scoring system, based on two risk factors, represents an important tool for both surgical indication and for patient counseling before surgery.

Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Rosswog, Carolina; Schmidt, Rene; Oberthuer, André; Juraeva, Dilafruz; Brors, Benedikt; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Volland, Ruth; Bartenhagen, Christoph; Simon, Thorsten; Berthold, Frank; Hero, Barbara; Faldum, Andreas; Fischer, Matthias

2017-12-01

Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n=75) for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n=411) for risk score development, and a validation set (n=209). Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9±3.4 vs 63.6±14.5 vs 31.0±5.4; P<.001), and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pediatric Heart Donor Assessment Tool (PH-DAT): A novel donor risk scoring system to predict 1-year mortality in pediatric heart transplantation.

PubMed

Zafar, Farhan; Jaquiss, Robert D; Almond, Christopher S; Lorts, Angela; Chin, Clifford; Rizwan, Raheel; Bryant, Roosevelt; Tweddell, James S; Morales, David L S

2018-03-01

In this study we sought to quantify hazards associated with various donor factors into a cumulative risk scoring system (the Pediatric Heart Donor Assessment Tool, or PH-DAT) to predict 1-year mortality after pediatric heart transplantation (PHT). PHT data with complete donor information (5,732) were randomly divided into a derivation cohort and a validation cohort (3:1). From the derivation cohort, donor-specific variables associated with 1-year mortality (exploratory p-value < 0.2) were incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression model. Scores were assigned to independent predictors (p < 0.05) based on relative odds ratios (ORs). The final model had an acceptable predictive value (c-statistic = 0.62). The significant 5 variables (ischemic time, stroke as the cause of death, donor-to-recipient height ratio, donor left ventricular ejection fraction, glomerular filtration rate) were used for the scoring system. The validation cohort demonstrated a strong correlation between the observed and expected rates of 1-year mortality (r = 0.87). The risk of 1-year mortality increases by 11% (OR 1.11 [1.08 to 1.14]; p < 0.001) in the derivation cohort and 9% (OR 1.09 [1.04 to 1.14]; p = 0.001) in the validation cohort with an increase of 1-point in score. Mortality risk increased 5 times from the lowest to the highest donor score in this cohort. Based on this model, a donor score range of 10 to 28 predicted 1-year recipient mortality of 11% to 31%. This novel pediatric-specific, donor risk scoring system appears capable of predicting post-transplant mortality. Although the PH-DAT may benefit organ allocation and assessment of recipient risk while controlling for donor risk, prospective validation of this model is warranted. Copyright © 2018 International Society for the Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The mortality risk score and the ADG score: two points-based scoring systems for the Johns Hopkins aggregated diagnosis groups to predict mortality in a general adult population cohort in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Walraven, Carl van

2011-10-01

Logistic regression models that incorporated age, sex, and indicator variables for the Johns Hopkins' Aggregated Diagnosis Groups (ADGs) categories have been shown to accurately predict all-cause mortality in adults. To develop 2 different point-scoring systems using the ADGs. The Mortality Risk Score (MRS) collapses age, sex, and the ADGs to a single summary score that predicts the annual risk of all-cause death in adults. The ADG Score derives weights for the individual ADG diagnosis groups. : Retrospective cohort constructed using population-based administrative data. All 10,498,413 residents of Ontario, Canada, between the age of 20 and 100 years who were alive on their birthday in 2007, participated in this study. Participants were randomly divided into derivation and validation samples. : Death within 1 year. In the derivation cohort, the MRS ranged from -21 to 139 (median value 29, IQR 17 to 44). In the validation group, a logistic regression model with the MRS as the sole predictor significantly predicted the risk of 1-year mortality with a c-statistic of 0.917. A regression model with age, sex, and the ADG Score has similar performance. Both methods accurately predicted the risk of 1-year mortality across the 20 vigintiles of risk. The MRS combined values for a person's age, sex, and the John Hopkins ADGs to accurately predict 1-year mortality in adults. The ADG Score is a weighted score representing the presence or absence of the 32 ADG diagnosis groups. These scores will facilitate health services researchers conducting risk adjustment using administrative health care databases.

New scoring system for intra-abdominal injury diagnosis after blunt trauma.

PubMed

Shojaee, Majid; Faridaalaee, Gholamreza; Yousefifard, Mahmoud; Yaseri, Mehdi; Arhami Dolatabadi, Ali; Sabzghabaei, Anita; Malekirastekenari, Ali

2014-01-01

An accurate scoring system for intra-abdominal injury (IAI) based on clinical manifestation and examination may decrease unnecessary CT scans, save time, and reduce healthcare cost. This study is designed to provide a new scoring system for a better diagnosis of IAI after blunt trauma. This prospective observational study was performed from April 2011 to October 2012 on patients aged above 18 years and suspected with blunt abdominal trauma (BAT) admitted to the emergency department (ED) of Imam Hussein Hospital and Shohadaye Hafte Tir Hospital. All patients were assessed and treated based on Advanced Trauma Life Support and ED protocol. Diagnosis was done according to CT scan findings, which was considered as the gold standard. Data were gathered based on patient's history, physical exam, ultrasound and CT scan findings by a general practitioner who was not blind to this study. Chi-square test and logistic regression were done. Factors with significant relationship with CT scan were imported in multivariate regression models, where a coefficient (β) was given based on the contribution of each of them. Scoring system was developed based on the obtained total β of each factor. Altogether 261 patients (80.1% male) were enrolled (48 cases of IAI). A 24-point blunt abdominal trauma scoring system (BATSS) was developed. Patients were divided into three groups including low (score<8), moderate (8≤score<12) and high risk (score≥12). In high risk group immediate laparotomy should be done, moderate group needs further assessments, and low risk group should be kept under observation. Low risk patients did not show positive CT-scans (specificity 100%). Conversely, all high risk patients had positive CT-scan findings (sensitivity 100%). The receiver operating characteristic curve indicated a close relationship between the results of CT scan and BATSS (sensitivity=99.3%). The present scoring system furnishes a high precision and reproducible diagnostic tool for BAT detection and has the potential to reduce unnecessary CT scan and cut unnecessary costs.

Real-Time Risk Prediction on the Wards: A Feasibility Study.

PubMed

Kang, Michael A; Churpek, Matthew M; Zadravecz, Frank J; Adhikari, Richa; Twu, Nicole M; Edelson, Dana P

2016-08-01

Failure to detect clinical deterioration in the hospital is common and associated with poor patient outcomes and increased healthcare costs. Our objective was to evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of real-time risk stratification using the electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage score, an electronic health record-based early warning score. We conducted a prospective black-box validation study. Data were transmitted via HL7 feed in real time to an integration engine and database server wherein the scores were calculated and stored without visualization for clinical providers. The high-risk threshold was set a priori. Timing and sensitivity of electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage score activation were compared with standard-of-care Rapid Response Team activation for patients who experienced a ward cardiac arrest or ICU transfer. Three general care wards at an academic medical center. A total of 3,889 adult inpatients. The system generated 5,925 segments during 5,751 admissions. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage score was 0.88 for cardiac arrest and 0.80 for ICU transfer, consistent with previously published derivation results. During the study period, eight of 10 patients with a cardiac arrest had high-risk electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage scores, whereas the Rapid Response Team was activated on two of these patients (p < 0.05). Furthermore, electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage score identified 52% (n = 201) of the ICU transfers compared with 34% (n = 129) by the current system (p < 0.001). Patients met the high-risk electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage score threshold a median of 30 hours prior to cardiac arrest or ICU transfer versus 1.7 hours for standard Rapid Response Team activation. Electronic Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage score identified significantly more cardiac arrests and ICU transfers than standard Rapid Response Team activation and did so many hours in advance.

Analysis of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System and Caprini Risk Assessment Model in Predicting Venous Thromboembolic Outcomes in Plastic Surgery Patients.

PubMed

Shaikh, Mohammad-Ali; Jeong, Haneol S; Mastro, Andrew; Davis, Kathryn; Lysikowski, Jerzy; Kenkel, Jeffrey M

2016-04-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) can be a fatal outcome of plastic surgery. Risk assessment models attempt to determine a patient's risk, yet few studies have compared different models in plastic surgery patients. The authors investigated preoperative ASA physical status and 2005 Caprini scores to determine which model was more predictive of VTE. A retrospective chart review examined 1801 patients undergoing contouring and reconstructive procedures from January 2008 to January 2012. Patients were grouped into risk tiers for ASA scores (1-2 = low, 3+ = high) with 2 cutoffs for Caprini scores (1-4 = low, 5+ high; 1-5 = low, 6+ = high), then re-stratified into 3 tiers using Caprini score cutoffs (1-4 = low, 5-8 = high, 9+ = highest; 1-5 = low, 6-8 = high, 9+ = highest). Median scores of VTE patients were compared to those without VTE. Odds ratio and chi-squared analyses were performed. Of the 1598 patients included in the study, 1.50% developed VTE. Median ASA scores differed significantly between comparison groups but Caprini scores did not vary regardless of cutoff. When examining the 2-tiered Caprini scores, using low risk = 1-5 showed a significant relationship between risk tier and DVT development (P = 0.0266). The ASA system yielded the highest odds ratio of VTE development between low and high-risk patients. The Caprini model captured more patients with VTE in its high-risk category. Combining the two models for a more heuristic approach to preoperative care may identify patients at higher risk. 4 Risk. © 2015 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Veterans Affairs Cardiac Risk Score: Recalibrating the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Score for Applied Use.

PubMed

Sussman, Jeremy B; Wiitala, Wyndy L; Zawistowski, Matthew; Hofer, Timothy P; Bentley, Douglas; Hayward, Rodney A

2017-09-01

Accurately estimating cardiovascular risk is fundamental to good decision-making in cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but risk scores developed in one population often perform poorly in dissimilar populations. We sought to examine whether a large integrated health system can use their electronic health data to better predict individual patients' risk of developing CVD. We created a cohort using all patients ages 45-80 who used Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) ambulatory care services in 2006 with no history of CVD, heart failure, or loop diuretics. Our outcome variable was new-onset CVD in 2007-2011. We then developed a series of recalibrated scores, including a fully refit "VA Risk Score-CVD (VARS-CVD)." We tested the different scores using standard measures of prediction quality. For the 1,512,092 patients in the study, the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score had similar discrimination as the VARS-CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 in men and 0.73 in women), but the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease model had poor calibration, predicting 63% more events than observed. Calibration was excellent in the fully recalibrated VARS-CVD tool, but simpler techniques tested proved less reliable. We found that local electronic health record data can be used to estimate CVD better than an established risk score based on research populations. Recalibration improved estimates dramatically, and the type of recalibration was important. Such tools can also easily be integrated into health system's electronic health record and can be more readily updated.

The Impact of Supplemental Education Services Program on Middle School At-Risk Learners' Math and Reading Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maxwell, June B.

2010-01-01

In the state of Georgia, local school systems are under pressure to increase at-risk middle school students' state scores in reading and math. At the data site, the local school system implemented a supplemental education service (SES) program for at-risk students in order to pass the Georgia Criterion Referenced Competency Test (CRCT) in reading…

Relationship between the logistic EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score in patients implanted with the CoreValve ReValving system--a Bern-Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

Piazza, Nicolo; Wenaweser, Peter; van Gameren, Menno; Pilgrim, Thomas; Tzikas, Apostolos; Tsikas, Apostolos; Otten, Amber; Nuis, Rutger; Onuma, Yoshinobu; Cheng, Jin Ming; Kappetein, A Pieter; Boersma, Eric; Juni, Peter; de Jaegere, Peter; Windecker, Stephan; Serruys, Patrick W

2010-02-01

Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or "inoperable" patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% +/- 13.9% vs STS 6.7% +/- 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES > or =15%, 16% had an STS > or =10%, and 40% had an LES > or =20% or STS > or =10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making. Copyright (c) 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

POSSUM--a model for surgical outcome audit in quality care.

PubMed

Ng, K J; Yii, M K

2003-10-01

Comparative surgical audit to monitor quality of care should be performed with a risk-adjusted scoring system rather than using crude morbidity and mortality rates. A validated and widely applied risk adjusted scoring system, P-POSSUM (Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality) methodology, was applied to a prospective series of predominantly general surgical patients at the Sarawak General Hospital, Kuching over a six months period. The patients were grouped into four risk groups. The observed mortality rates were not significantly different from predicted rates, showing that the quality of surgical care was at par with typical western series. The simplicity and advantages of this scoring system over other auditing tools are discussed. The P-POSSUM methodology could form the basis of local comparative surgical audit for assessment and maintenance of quality care.

Management of Coronary Artery Disease in South Asian Populations: Why and How to Prevent and Treat Differently.

PubMed

Ahmed, Emad; El-Menyar, Ayman

2016-03-01

The South Asian (SA) population constitutes one of the largest ethnic groups in the world. Several studies that compared host and migrant populations around the world indicate that SAs have a higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) than their native-born counterparts. Herein, we review the literature to address the role of the screening tools, scoring systems, and guidelines for primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention in these populations. Management based on screening for the CVD risk factors in a high-risk population such as SAs can improve health care outcomes. There are many scoring tools for calculating 10-year CVD risk; however, each scoring system has its limitations in this particular ethnicity. Further work is needed to establish a unique scoring and guidelines in SAs. © The Author(s) 2015.

The Value of ABCD2F Scoring System (ABCD2 Combined with Atrial Fibrillation) to Predict 90-Day Recurrent Brain Stroke

PubMed Central

Almasi, Mostafa; Ghasemi, Faeze; Chardoli, Mojtaba

2016-01-01

Background. The ABCD2 score is now identified as a useful clinical prediction rule to determine the risk for stroke in the days following brain ischemic attacks. Aim. The present study aimed to introduce a new scoring system named “ABCD2F” and compare its value with the previous ABCD2 system to predict recurrent ischemic stroke within 90 days of the initial cerebrovascular accident (CVA). Methods. 138 consecutive patients with the final diagnosis of ischemic CVA or TIAs who referred to emergency ward of Rasoul-e-Akram general hospital in Tehran from September 2012 to December 2013 were eligible. By adding a new score in the presence of atrial fibrillation to ABCD2 system, the new scoring system as ABCD2F was introduced and the risk stratification was done again on this new system. Results. The area under the curve for ABCD2 was 0.434 and for ABCD2F it was 0.452 indicating low value of both systems for assessing recurrence of stroke within 90 days of primary event. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that none of the baseline factors could predict 90-day recurrent stroke. Conclusion. ABCD2 and/or atrial fibrillation are not good scoring candidates for assessing the risk of recurrent stroke within first 90 days. PMID:27642521

Portsmouth physiological and operative severity score for the Enumeration of Mortality and morbidity scoring system in general surgical practice and identifying risk factors for poor outcome

PubMed Central

Tyagi, Ashish; Nagpal, Nitin; Sidhu, D. S.; Singh, Amandeep; Tyagi, Anjali

2017-01-01

Background: Estimation of the outcome is paramount in disease stratification and subsequent management in severely ill surgical patients. Risk scoring helps us quantify the prospects of adverse outcome in a patient. Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) the world over has proved itself as a worthy scoring system and the present study was done to evaluate the feasibility of P-POSSUM as a risk scoring system as a tool in efficacious prediction of mortality and morbidity in our demographic profile. Materials and Methods: Validity of P-POSSUM was assessed prospectively in fifty major general surgeries performed at our hospital from May 2011 to October 2012. Data were collected to obtain P-POSSUM score, and statistical analysis was performed. Results: Majority (72%) of patients was male and mean age was 40.24 ± 18.6 years. Seventy-eight percentage procedures were emergency laparotomies commonly performed for perforation peritonitis. Mean physiological score was 17.56 ± 7.6, and operative score was 17.76 ± 4.5 (total score = 35.3 ± 10.4). The ratio of observed to expected mortality rate was 0.86 and morbidity rate was 0.78. Discussion: P-POSSUM accurately predicted both mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent major surgical procedures in our setup. Thus, it helped us in identifying patients who required preferential attention and aggressive management. Widespread application of this tool can result in better distribution of care among high-risk surgical patients. PMID:28250670

Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System.

PubMed

Tourkmani, Abdo Karim; Sánchez-Huerta, Valeria; De Wit, Guillermo; Martínez, Jaime D; Mingo, David; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Jiménez-Alfaro, Ignacio

2017-01-01

To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS) proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases), incomplete medical notes (5 cases) and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases). We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure ( P <0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed no statistically significant relationship ( P >0.05) between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant ( P <0.05), although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y.

Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System

PubMed Central

Tourkmani, Abdo Karim; Sánchez-Huerta, Valeria; De Wit, Guillermo; Martínez, Jaime D.; Mingo, David; Mahillo-Fernández, Ignacio; Jiménez-Alfaro, Ignacio

2017-01-01

AIM To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS) proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases), incomplete medical notes (5 cases) and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases). We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed no statistically significant relationship (P>0.05) between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05), although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y. PMID:28393027

99mTc MDP SPECT-CT-Based Modified Mirels Classification for Evaluation of Risk of Fracture in Skeletal Metastasis: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Riaz, Saima; Bashir, Humayun; Niazi, Imran Khalid; Butt, Sumera; Qamar, Faisal

2018-06-01

Mirels' scoring system quantifies the risk of sustaining a pathologic fracture in osseous metastases of weight bearing long bones. Conventional Mirels' scoring is based on radiographs. Our pilot study proposes Tc MDP bone SPECT-CT based modified Mirels' scoring system and its comparison with conventional Mirels' scoring. Cortical lysis was noted in 8(24%) by SPECT-CT versus 2 (6.3%) on X-rays. Additional SPECT-CT parameters were; circumferential involvement [1/4 (31%), 1/2 (3%), 3/4 (37.5%), 4/4 (28%)] and extra-osseous soft tissue [3%]. Our pilot study suggests the potential role of SPECT-CT in predicting risk of fracture in osseous metastases.

Time-dependent changes in mortality and transformation risk in MDS

PubMed Central

Tuechler, Heinz; Sanz, Guillermo; Schanz, Julie; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Solé, Francesc; Bennett, John M.; Bowen, David; Fenaux, Pierre; Dreyfus, Francois; Kantarjian, Hagop; Kuendgen, Andrea; Malcovati, Luca; Cazzola, Mario; Cermak, Jaroslav; Fonatsch, Christa; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Levis, Alessandro; Luebbert, Michael; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw; Machherndl-Spandl, Sigrid; Magalhaes, Silvia M. M.; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Sekeres, Mikkael A.; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Stauder, Reinhard; Tauro, Sudhir; Valent, Peter; Vallespi, Teresa; van de Loosdrecht, Arjan A.; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef; Greenberg, Peter L.

2016-01-01

In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs), the evolution of risk for disease progression or death has not been systematically investigated despite being crucial for correct interpretation of prognostic risk scores. In a multicenter retrospective study, we described changes in risk over time, the consequences for basal prognostic scores, and their potential clinical implications. Major MDS prognostic risk scoring systems and their constituent individual predictors were analyzed in 7212 primary untreated MDS patients from the International Working Group for Prognosis in MDS database. Changes in risk of mortality and of leukemic transformation over time from diagnosis were described. Hazards regarding mortality and acute myeloid leukemia transformation diminished over time from diagnosis in higher-risk MDS patients, whereas they remained stable in lower-risk patients. After approximately 3.5 years, hazards in the separate risk groups became similar and were essentially equivalent after 5 years. This fact led to loss of prognostic power of different scoring systems considered, which was more pronounced for survival. Inclusion of age resulted in increased initial prognostic power for survival and less attenuation in hazards. If needed for practicability in clinical management, the differing development of risks suggested a reasonable division into lower- and higher-risk MDS based on the IPSS-R at a cutoff of 3.5 points. Our data regarding time-dependent performance of prognostic scores reflect the disparate change of risks in MDS subpopulations. Lower-risk patients at diagnosis remain lower risk whereas initially high-risk patients demonstrate decreasing risk over time. This change of risk should be considered in clinical decision making. PMID:27335276

The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for predicting ischemic stroke among East Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: A systemic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Xiong, Qinmei; Chen, Sisi; Senoo, Keitaro; Proietti, Marco; Hong, Kui; Lip, Gregory Y H

2015-09-15

Both the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are well-validated in Western populations for predicting risk of stroke among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). There is some uncertainty as to which risk score is best to guide optimal anticoagulant therapy among Asian populations with AF. A systemic literature search of Cochrane library, Scopus, and PubMed databases was conducted using search terms: atrial fibrillation, CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc. Stroke/thromboembolism (TE) outcome events at low, moderate, and high risk groups were compared in relation to both scores. Statistical analyses were performed using Revman 5.3 software. 493 records were retrieved, of which 6 cohort studies focusing on patients from Asian regions were finally appraised and included. Absolute event rates were usually lower when patients were categorized as CHA2DS2-VASc of 0-1, rather than CHADS2 of 0-1, respectively. Meta-analysis revealed that when compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc score, there was a 1.71-fold elevated risk of stroke when patients were stratified as 'low risk' using a CHADS2 score = 0, or a 1.40-fold increase with a CHADS2 score = 1. A 1.19-fold elevated event rate was observed among CHADS2 score ≥ 2 compared to CHA2DS2-VASc, but the total stroke/TE events were numerically higher in patients categorized as CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 2. The CHA2DS2-VASc score is superior to the CHADS2 score in identifying 'low risk' East Asian AF patients. Rather than a categorical approach, Asian guidelines should adopt a 2 step approach, by initially identifying the truly low risk patients, following which effective stroke prevention can be offered to those with ≥ 1 additional stroke risk factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the utility of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress score for predicting post-operative morbidity after orthopaedic surgery.

PubMed

Nagata, Takehiro; Hirose, Jun; Nakamura, Takayuki; Tokunaga, Takuya; Uehara, Yusuke; Mizuta, Hiroshi

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the utility of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) scoring system for predicting post-operative morbidity. We included 1,883 patients (mean age, 52.1 years) who underwent orthopaedic surgery. The post-operative complications were classified as surgical site and non-surgical site complications, and the relationship between the E-PASS scores and post-operative morbidity was investigated. The incidence of post-operative complications (n = 274) significantly increased with an increase in E-PASS scores (p < 0.001). The areas under the curve for the comprehensive risk score of the E-PASS scoring system for overall and non-surgical site complications were 0.777 and 0.794, respectively. The E-PASS scoring system showed some utility in predicting post-operative morbidity after general orthopaedic surgery. However, creating a new risk score that is more suitable for orthopaedic surgery will be challenging.

Defining High Risk Patients for Endovascular Aneurysm Repair: A National Analysis

PubMed Central

Egorova, Natalia; Giacovelli, Jeannine K.; Gelijns, Annetine; Mureebe, Leila; Greco, Giampaolo; Morrissey, Nicholas; Nowygrod, Roman; Moskowitz, Alan; McKinsey, James; Kent, K. Craig

2011-01-01

Background Endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is commonly used as a minimally invasive technique for repairing infrarenal aortic aneurysms. There have been recent concerns that a subset of high-risk patients experience unfavorable outcomes with this intervention. To determine whether such a high-risk cohort exists and to identify the characteristics of these patients, we analyzed the outcomes of Medicare patients treated with EVAR from 2000–2006. Methods and Results We identified 66,943 patients who underwent EVAR from Inpatient Medicare database. The overall 30-day mortality was 1.6%. A risk model for perioperative mortality was developed by randomly selecting 44,630 patients; the other 1/3 of the dataset was used to validate the model. The model was deemed reliable (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics was p=0.25 for the development, p=0.24 for the validation model) and accurate (c=0.735 and c=0.731 for the development and the validation model, respectively). In our scoring system, where scores ranged between 1 and 7, the following were identified as significant baseline factors that predict mortality: renal failure with dialysis (score=7), renal failure without dialysis (score=3), clinically significant lower extremity ischemia (score=5), patient age ≥85 (score=3), 75–84 (score=2), 70–74 (score=1), heart failure (score=3), chronic liver disease (score=3), female gender (score=2), neurological disorders (score=2), , chronic pulmonary disease (score=2), surgeon experience in EVAR<3 procedures (score=1) and hospital annual volume in EVAR <7 procedures (score=1). The majority of Medicare patients who were treated (96.6%, n=64,651) had a score of 9 or less, which correlated with a mortality < 5%. Only 3.4% of patients had a mortality ≥ 5% and 0.8% of patients (n=509) had a score of 13 or higher, which correlated with a mortality >10%. Conclusion We conclude that there is a high-risk cohort of patients that should not be treated with EVAR; however, this cohort is small. Our scoring system, which is based on patient and institutional factors, provides criteria that can be easily used by clinicians to quantify perioperative risk for EVAR candidates. PMID:19782526

School Readiness and the Draw-a-Man Test: An Empiricaly Derived Alternative to Harris' Scoring System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simner, Marvin L.

1985-01-01

An abbreviated scoring system for the Goodenough-Harris Draw-A-Man Test found that three items had the same overall potential for correctly identifying at-risk kindergarteners as more time-consuming scoring methods. (CL)

Prognostic score to predict mortality during TB treatment in TB/HIV co-infected patients.

PubMed

Nguyen, Duc T; Jenkins, Helen E; Graviss, Edward A

2018-01-01

Estimating mortality risk during TB treatment in HIV co-infected patients is challenging for health professionals, especially in a low TB prevalence population, due to the lack of a standardized prognostic system. The current study aimed to develop and validate a simple mortality prognostic scoring system for TB/HIV co-infected patients. Using data from the CDC's Tuberculosis Genotyping Information Management System of TB patients in Texas reported from 01/2010 through 12/2016, age ≥15 years, HIV(+), and outcome being "completed" or "died", we developed and internally validated a mortality prognostic score using multiple logistic regression. Model discrimination was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The model's good calibration was determined by a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness of fit test. Among the 450 patients included in the analysis, 57 (12.7%) died during TB treatment. The final prognostic score used six characteristics (age, residence in long-term care facility, meningeal TB, chest x-ray, culture positive, and culture not converted/unknown), which are routinely collected by TB programs. Prognostic scores were categorized into three groups that predicted mortality: low-risk (<20 points), medium-risk (20-25 points) and high-risk (>25 points). The model had good discrimination and calibration (AUC = 0.82; 0.80 in bootstrap validation), and a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow test p = 0.71. Our simple validated mortality prognostic scoring system can be a practical tool for health professionals in identifying TB/HIV co-infected patients with high mortality risk.

Clinical risk scoring system for predicting extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli infection in hospitalized patients.

PubMed

Kengkla, K; Charoensuk, N; Chaichana, M; Puangjan, S; Rattanapornsompong, T; Choorassamee, J; Wilairat, P; Saokaew, S

2016-05-01

Extended spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) has important implications for infection control and empiric antibiotic prescribing. This study aims to develop a risk scoring system for predicting ESBL-EC infection based on local epidemiology. The study retrospectively collected eligible patients with a positive culture for E. coli during 2011 to 2014. The risk scoring system was developed using variables independently associated with ESBL-EC infection through logistic regression-based prediction. Area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AuROC) was determined to confirm the prediction power of the model. Predictors for ESBL-EC infection were male gender [odds ratio (OR): 1.53], age ≥55 years (OR: 1.50), healthcare-associated infection (OR: 3.21), hospital-acquired infection (OR: 2.28), sepsis (OR: 1.79), prolonged hospitalization (OR: 1.88), history of ESBL infection within one year (OR: 7.88), prior use of broad-spectrum cephalosporins within three months (OR: 12.92), and prior use of other antibiotics within three months (OR: 2.14). Points scored ranged from 0 to 47, and were divided into three groups based on diagnostic performance parameters: low risk (score: 0-8; 44.57%), moderate risk (score: 9-11; 21.85%) and high risk (score: ≥12; 33.58%). The model displayed moderate power of prediction (AuROC: 0.773; 95% confidence interval: 0.742-0.805) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) = 13.29; P = 0.065). This tool may optimize the prescribing of empirical antibiotic therapy, minimize time to identify patients, and prevent spreading of ESBL-EC. Prior to adoption into routine clinical practice, further validation study of the tool is needed. Copyright © 2016 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The New York State risk score for predicting in-hospital/30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Walford, Gary; Jacobs, Alice K; Berger, Peter B; Holmes, David R; Stamato, Nicholas J; Sharma, Samin; King, Spencer B

2013-06-01

This study sought to develop a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk score for in-hospital/30-day mortality. Risk scores are simplified linear scores that provide clinicians with quick estimates of patients' short-term mortality rates for informed consent and to determine the appropriate intervention. Earlier PCI risk scores were based on in-hospital mortality. However, for PCI, a substantial percentage of patients die within 30 days of the procedure after discharge. New York's Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital/30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing PCI in 2010, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that estimates mortality rates. The score was validated by applying it to 2009 New York PCI data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the score to predict complications and length of stay. A total of 54,223 patients were used to develop the risk score. There are 11 risk factors that make up the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 9, and the highest total score is 34. The score was validated based on patients undergoing PCI in the previous year, and accurately predicted mortality for all patients as well as patients who recently suffered a myocardial infarction (MI). The PCI risk score developed here enables clinicians to estimate in-hospital/30-day mortality very quickly and quite accurately. It accurately predicts mortality for patients undergoing PCI in the previous year and for MI patients, and is also moderately related to perioperative complications and length of stay. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The New York risk score for in-hospital and 30-day mortality for coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

PubMed

Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Wechsler, Andrew; Jordan, Desmond; Lahey, Stephen J; Culliford, Alfred T; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R

2013-01-01

Simplified risk scores for coronary artery bypass graft surgery are frequently in lieu of more complicated statistical models and are valuable for informed consent and choice of intervention. Previous risk scores have been based on in-hospital mortality, but a substantial number of patients die within 30 days of the procedure. These deaths should also be accounted for, so we have developed a risk score based on in-hospital and 30-day mortality. New York's Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital and 30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery in 2009, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that provides estimated in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates for different values of the score. The accuracy of the risk score in predicting mortality was tested. This score was also validated by applying it to 2008 New York coronary artery bypass graft data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the risk score to predict complications and length of stay. The overall in-hospital and 30-day mortality rate for the 10,148 patients in the study was 1.79%. There are seven risk factors comprising the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 5, and the highest possible total score is 23. The score accurately predicted mortality in 2009 as well as in 2008, and was strongly correlated with complications and length of stay. The risk score is a simple way of estimating short-term mortality that accurately predicts mortality in the year the model was developed as well as in the previous year. Perioperative complications and length of stay are also well predicted by the risk score. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Examining the association of injury with the Functional Movement Screen and Landing Error Scoring System in military recruits undergoing 16 weeks of introductory fitness training.

PubMed

Everard, Eoin; Lyons, Mark; Harrison, Andrew J

2018-06-01

To examine the association of injury with the Functional Movement Screen (FMS) and Landing Error Scoring System (LESS) in military recruits undergoing an intensive 16-week training block. Prospective cohort study. One hundred and thirty-two entry-level male soldiers (18-25years) were tested using the FMS and LESS. The participants underwent an intensive 16-week training program with injury data recorded daily. Chi-squared statistics were used to examine associations between injury risk and (1) poor LESS scores, (2) any score of 1 on the FMS and (3) composite FMS score of ≤14. A composite FMS score of ≤14 was not a significant predictor of injury. LESS scores of >5 and having a score of 1 on any FMS test were significantly associated with injury. LESS scores had greater relative risk, sensitivity and specificity (2.2 (95% CI=1.48-3.34); 71% and 87% respectively) than scores of 1 on the FMS (relative risk=1.32 (95% CI=1.0-1.7); sensitivity=50% and specificity=76%). There was no association between composite FMS score and injury but LESS scores and scores of 1 in the FMS test were significantly associated with injury in varying degrees. LESS scores had a much better association with injury than both any scores of 1 on the FMS and a combination of LESS scores and scores of 1 on the FMS. Furthermore, the LESS provides comparable information related to injury risk as other well-established markers associated with injury such as age, muscular strength and previous injury. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Probabilistic Model for Cushing's Syndrome Screening in At-Risk Populations: A Prospective Multicenter Study.

PubMed

León-Justel, Antonio; Madrazo-Atutxa, Ainara; Alvarez-Rios, Ana I; Infantes-Fontán, Rocio; Garcia-Arnés, Juan A; Lillo-Muñoz, Juan A; Aulinas, Anna; Urgell-Rull, Eulàlia; Boronat, Mauro; Sánchez-de-Abajo, Ana; Fajardo-Montañana, Carmen; Ortuño-Alonso, Mario; Salinas-Vert, Isabel; Granada, Maria L; Cano, David A; Leal-Cerro, Alfonso

2016-10-01

Cushing's syndrome (CS) is challenging to diagnose. Increased prevalence of CS in specific patient populations has been reported, but routine screening for CS remains questionable. To decrease the diagnostic delay and improve disease outcomes, simple new screening methods for CS in at-risk populations are needed. To develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict CS based on clinical signs and an easy-to-use biochemical test. Observational, prospective, multicenter. Referral hospital. A cohort of 353 patients attending endocrinology units for outpatient visits. All patients were evaluated with late-night salivary cortisol (LNSC) and a low-dose dexamethasone suppression test for CS. Diagnosis or exclusion of CS. Twenty-six cases of CS were diagnosed in the cohort. A risk scoring system was developed by logistic regression analysis, and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. This risk score included clinical signs and symptoms (muscular atrophy, osteoporosis, and dorsocervical fat pad) and LNSC levels. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93, with a sensitivity of 96.2% and specificity of 82.9%. We developed a risk score to predict CS in an at-risk population. This score may help to identify at-risk patients in non-endocrinological settings such as primary care, but external validation is warranted.

Systemic Inflammation-Based Biomarkers and Survival in HIV-Positive Subject With Solid Cancer in an Italian Multicenter Study.

PubMed

Raffetti, Elena; Donato, Francesco; Pezzoli, Chiara; Digiambenedetto, Simona; Bandera, Alessandra; Di Pietro, Massimo; Di Filippo, Elisa; Maggiolo, Franco; Sighinolfi, Laura; Fornabaio, Chiara; Castelnuovo, Filippo; Ladisa, Nicoletta; Castelli, Francesco; Quiros Roldan, Eugenia

2015-08-15

Recently, some systemic inflammation-based biomarkers have been demonstrated useful for predicting risk of death in patients with solid cancer independently of tumor characteristics. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic role of systemic inflammation-based biomarkers in HIV-infected patients with solid tumors and to propose a risk score for mortality in these subjects. Clinical and pathological data on solid AIDS-defining cancer (ADC) and non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC), diagnosed between 1998 and 2012 in an Italian cohort, were analyzed. To evaluate the prognostic role of systemic inflammation- and nutrition-based markers, univariate and multivariable Cox regression models were applied. To compute the risk score equation, the patients were randomly assigned to a derivation and a validation sample. A total of 573 patients (76.3% males) with a mean age of 46.2 years (SD = 10.3) were enrolled. 178 patients died during a median of 3.2 years of follow-up. For solid NADCs, elevated Glasgow Prognostic Score, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, platelet/lymphocyte ratio, and Prognostic Nutritional Index were independently associated with risk of death; for solid ADCs, none of these markers was associated with risk of death. For solid NADCs, we computed a mortality risk score on the basis of age at cancer diagnosis, intravenous drug use, and Prognostic Nutritional Index. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.67 (95% confidence interval: 0.58 to 0.75) in the derivation sample and 0.66 (95% confidence interval: 0.54 to 0.79) in the validation sample. Inflammatory biomarkers were associated with risk of death in HIV-infected patients with solid NADCs but not with ADCs.

Dietary compound score and risk of age-related macular degeneration in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Purpose: Because foods provide many nutrients, which may interact with each other to modify risk for multifactorial diseases such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD), we sought to develop a composite scoring system to summarize the combined effect of multiple dietary nutrients on AMD risk. Th...

Relation of the aortic stiffness with the GRACE risk score in patients with the non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

PubMed Central

Omer, Gedikli; Gokhan, Aksan; Adem, Uzun; Sabri, Demircan; Korhan, Soylu

2014-01-01

Background: Current guidelines recommend clinical risk scoring systems for the patients diagnosed and determinated treatment strategy with in Non-ST-elevation elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Previous studies demonstrated association between aortic elasticity properties, stiffness and severity CAD. However, the associations between Aortic stiffness, elasticity properties and clinical risk scores have not been investigated. In the present study we have evaluated the relation between the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and aortic stiffness in patients with NSTEMI. Method: We prospectively analyzed 87 consecutive patients with NSTEMI. Aortic elastic parameter and stiffness parameter were calculated from the echocardiographically derived thoracic aortic diameters (mm/m2), and the measurement of pulse pressure obtained by cuff sphygmomanometry. We have categorized the patients in to two groups as low ((n = 45) (GRACE risk score ≤ 140)) and high ((n = 42) (GRACE risk score > 140)) risk group according to GRACE risk score and compare the both groups. Results: Table 1 shows baseline characteristics of patients. Our study showed that Aortic strain was significantly low (3.5 ± 1.4, 7.9 ± 2.3 respectively, p < 0.001) and aortic stiffness index was significantly high (3.9 ± 0.38; 3 ± 0.35, respectively, p < 0.001) in the high risk group values compared to those with low risk group. The aortic stiffness index was the only independent predictor of GRACE risk score (OR: 119.390; 95% CI: 2.925-4872.8; p = 0.011) in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We found a significant correlation between aortic stiffness, impaired elasticity and GRACE risk score. Aortic stiffness index was the only independent variable of the high GRACE risk score. The inclusion of aortic stiffness into the GRACE risk score could allow improved risk classification of patients with ACS at admission and this may be important in the diagnosis, follow up and treatment of the patients. PMID:25356178

Relation of the aortic stiffness with the GRACE risk score in patients with the non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Omer, Gedikli; Gokhan, Aksan; Adem, Uzun; Sabri, Demircan; Korhan, Soylu

2014-01-01

Current guidelines recommend clinical risk scoring systems for the patients diagnosed and determinated treatment strategy with in Non-ST-elevation elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Previous studies demonstrated association between aortic elasticity properties, stiffness and severity CAD. However, the associations between Aortic stiffness, elasticity properties and clinical risk scores have not been investigated. In the present study we have evaluated the relation between the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and aortic stiffness in patients with NSTEMI. We prospectively analyzed 87 consecutive patients with NSTEMI. Aortic elastic parameter and stiffness parameter were calculated from the echocardiographically derived thoracic aortic diameters (mm/m(2)), and the measurement of pulse pressure obtained by cuff sphygmomanometry. We have categorized the patients in to two groups as low ((n = 45) (GRACE risk score ≤ 140)) and high ((n = 42) (GRACE risk score > 140)) risk group according to GRACE risk score and compare the both groups. Table 1 shows baseline characteristics of patients. Our study showed that Aortic strain was significantly low (3.5 ± 1.4, 7.9 ± 2.3 respectively, p < 0.001) and aortic stiffness index was significantly high (3.9 ± 0.38; 3 ± 0.35, respectively, p < 0.001) in the high risk group values compared to those with low risk group. The aortic stiffness index was the only independent predictor of GRACE risk score (OR: 119.390; 95% CI: 2.925-4872.8; p = 0.011) in multivariate analysis. We found a significant correlation between aortic stiffness, impaired elasticity and GRACE risk score. Aortic stiffness index was the only independent variable of the high GRACE risk score. The inclusion of aortic stiffness into the GRACE risk score could allow improved risk classification of patients with ACS at admission and this may be important in the diagnosis, follow up and treatment of the patients.

A novel scoring system for gastric cancer risk assessment based on the expression of three CLIP4 DNA methylation-associated genes

PubMed Central

Hu, Chenggong; Zhou, Yongfang; Liu, Chang; Kang, Yan

2018-01-01

Gastric cancer (GC) is the fifth most common cancer and the third leading cause of cancer-associated mortality worldwide. In the current study, comprehensive bioinformatic analyses were performed to develop a novel scoring system for GC risk assessment based on CAP-Gly domain containing linker protein family member 4 (CLIP4) DNA methylation status. Two GC datasets with methylation sequencing information and mRNA expression profiling were downloaded from the The Cancer Genome Atlas and Gene Expression Omnibus databases. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between the CLIP4 hypermethylation and CLIP4 hypomethylation groups were screened using the limma package in R 3.3.1, and survival analysis of these DEGs was performed using the survival package. A risk scoring system was established via regression factor-weighted gene expression based on linear combination to screen the most important genes associated with CLIP4 methylation and prognosis. Genes associated with high/low-risk value were selected using the limma package. Functional enrichment analysis of the top 500 DEGs that positively and negatively associated with risk values was performed using DAVID 6.8 online and the gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) software. In total, 35 genes were identified to be that significantly associated with prognosis and CLIP4 DNA methylation, and three prognostic signature genes, claudin-11 (CLDN11), apolipoprotein D (APOD), and chordin like 1 (CHRDL1), were used to establish a risk assessment system. The prognostic scoring system exhibited efficiency in classifying patients with different prognoses, where the low-risk groups had significantly longer overall survival times than those in the high-risk groups. CLDN11, APOD and CHRDL1 exhibited reduced expression in the hypermethylation and low-risk groups compare with the hypomethylation and high-risk groups, respectively. Multivariate Cox analysis indicated that risk value could be used as an independent prognostic factor. In functional analysis, six functional gene ontology terms and five GSEA pathways were associated with CLDN11, APOD and CHRDL1. The results established the credibility of the scoring system in this study. Additionally, these three genes, which were significantly associated with CLIP4 DNA methylation and GC risk assessment, were identified as potential prognostic biomarkers. PMID:29901187

External Validity of a Risk Stratification Score Predicting Early Distant Brain Failure and Salvage Whole Brain Radiation Therapy After Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases.

PubMed

Press, Robert H; Boselli, Danielle M; Symanowski, James T; Lankford, Scott P; McCammon, Robert J; Moeller, Benjamin J; Heinzerling, John H; Fasola, Carolina E; Burri, Stuart H; Patel, Kirtesh R; Asher, Anthony L; Sumrall, Ashley L; Curran, Walter J; Shu, Hui-Kuo G; Crocker, Ian R; Prabhu, Roshan S

2017-07-01

A scoring system using pretreatment factors was recently published for predicting the risk of early (≤6 months) distant brain failure (DBF) and salvage whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone. Four risk factors were identified: (1) lack of prior WBRT; (2) melanoma or breast histologic features; (3) multiple brain metastases; and (4) total volume of brain metastases <1.3 cm 3 , with each factor assigned 1 point. The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of this scoring system and its appropriateness for clinical use in an independent external patient population. We reviewed the records of 247 patients with 388 brain metastases treated with SRS between 2010 at 2013 at Levine Cancer Institute. The Press (Emory) risk score was calculated and applied to the validation cohort population, and subsequent risk groups were analyzed using cumulative incidence. The low-risk (LR) group had a significantly lower risk of early DBF than did the high-risk (HR) group (22.6% vs 44%, P=.004), but there was no difference between the HR and intermediate-risk (IR) groups (41.2% vs 44%, P=.79). Total lesion volume <1.3 cm 3  (P=.004), malignant melanoma (P=.007), and multiple metastases (P<.001) were validated as predictors for early DBF. Prior WBRT and breast cancer histologic features did not retain prognostic significance. Risk stratification for risk of early salvage WBRT were similar, with a trend toward an increased risk for HR compared with LR (P=.09) but no difference between IR and HR (P=.53). The 3-level Emory risk score was shown to not be externally valid, but the model was able to stratify between 2 levels (LR and not-LR [combined IR and HR]) for early (≤6 months) DBF. These results reinforce the importance of validating predictive models in independent cohorts. Further refinement of this scoring system with molecular information and in additional contemporary patient populations is warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A scoring system for ascertainment of incident stroke; the Risk Index Score (RISc).

PubMed

Kass-Hout, T A; Moyé, L A; Smith, M A; Morgenstern, L B

2006-01-01

The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a computer-based statistical algorithm that could be translated into a simple scoring system in order to ascertain incident stroke cases using hospital admission medical records data. The Risk Index Score (RISc) algorithm was developed using data collected prospectively by the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) project, 2000. The validity of RISc was evaluated by estimating the concordance of scoring system stroke ascertainment to stroke ascertainment by physician and/or abstractor review of hospital admission records. RISc was developed on 1718 randomly selected patients (training set) and then statistically validated on an independent sample of 858 patients (validation set). A multivariable logistic model was used to develop RISc and subsequently evaluated by goodness-of-fit and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. The higher the value of RISc, the higher the patient's risk of potential stroke. The study showed RISc was well calibrated and discriminated those who had potential stroke from those that did not on initial screening. In this study we developed and validated a rapid, easy, efficient, and accurate method to ascertain incident stroke cases from routine hospital admission records for epidemiologic investigations. Validation of this scoring system was achieved statistically; however, clinical validation in a community hospital setting is warranted.

Stroke risks and patterns of warfarin therapy among atrial fibrillation patients post radiofrequency ablation: A real-world experience.

PubMed

Zhang, Juan; Liu, Xingpeng; Liu, Xiaoqing; Yin, Xiandong; Wang, Yanjiang; Lu, Xiaoying; Yang, Xinchun

2017-11-01

We assessed the thromboembolic risks of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients who had undergone radiofrequency ablation (RFA) using the CHADS2-VASc risk scoring system and further investigated the patterns of warfarin use for thromboprophylaxis according to patient thromboembolic risk scores.In this study, we analyzed the stroke risks of patients who had undergone RFA for AF at our hospital between March 2014 and June 2016 using the CHADS2, CHADS2-VASc, and Hypertension, Abnormal renal/liver function, Stroke, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile international normalized ratio, Elderly (> 65 years) (HAS-BLED) scoring systems. We retrieved medications, co-morbidities, and initial warfarin dosage data. The primary outcome was the percentage of patients initiated with warfarin therapy for stroke prophylaxis in AF who had a CHADS2-VASc score of 0.Totally, 309 patients were initiated with warfarin therapy for stroke prophylaxis in AF post-RFA. The baseline warfarin dosage was 2.76 ± 0.61 mg. The baseline CHADS2-VASC score was 2.93 ± 1.96 and 40 (12.95%) had a CHADS2-VASC score of 0, 42 (13.6%) had a CHADS2-VASCscore of 1, and 227 (73.5%) had a CHADS2-VASC score ≥2. The baseline CHADS2 score was 2.17 ± 1.55 and 48 (15.5%) had a CHADS2 score of 0, 68 (22.0%) had a CHADS2 score of 1, and 193 (62.5%) had a CHADS2 score ≥2. The baseline HAS-BLED score was 1.25 ± 0.91 and 69 (22.3%) had a HAS-BLED score of 0, 121 (39.2%) had a HAS-BLED score of 1, and 119 (38.5%) had a HAS-BLED score ≥2. Patients aged <65 years or 65 years, male and female patients, patients with or without hypertension, coronary heart disease, or diabetes mellitus, and patients with or without previous stroke/transient ischemic attack differed significantly in stroke risks by CHADS2-VASC, CHADS2, and HAS-BLED scores for stroke risks. Patients with different baseline international normalized ratio differed significantly in CHADS2-VASC scores. Furthermore, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers and statins were of statistical significance for stroke risks.The majority of AF patients post-RFAs was of high stroke risk and received warfarin thromboprophylaxis in accordance with national guidelines. Our findings suggest that low and intermediate stroke risk patients should be evaluated for stroke risks and risk factors so that tailored warfarin thromboprophylaxis therapy can be given and inappropriate use of warfarin in AF patients can be avoided. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment for Corneal Ectasia following Photorefractive Keratectomy

PubMed Central

Kaiserman, Igor; Domniz, Yuval; Sela, Tzahi; Munzer, Gur

2017-01-01

Purpose To analyze the risk factors associated with a series of ectasia cases following photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and all published cases. Methods In a retrospective study on post-PRK ectasia patients, 9 eyes of 7 patients were included, in addition to 20 eyes of 13 patients from the literature. Risk of post-PRK ectasia was calculated using the ectasia risk score system (ERSS) for laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) patients. The percent tissue altered (PTA) was also evaluated. Results ERSS scoring of zero for age, RSB, and spherical equivalent was found in 66%, 86%, and 86% of the eyes, respectively. Pachymetry risk score was 2 in 60% of the eyes and 3 or 4 in 16% of the eyes. Topography risk score was 3 in 41% of the eyes and 4 in 21% of the eyes. Cumulative ectasia risk score was ≥4 (high risk) in 77% of the eyes and ≥3 (medium and high risk) in 86% of the eyes. Average PTA was 23.2 ± 7.0%. All eyes but one had a PTA < 40%. Conclusions Preoperative corneal topographic abnormalities and thin corneas may be significant risk factors for developing ectasia following PRK. Post-LASIK ectasia risk scoring also has relevance in the risk for developing post-PRK ectasia. PMID:28815089

Scoring life insurance applicants' laboratory results, blood pressure and build to predict all-cause mortality risk.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

2012-01-01

Evaluate the degree of medium to longer term mortality prediction possible from a scoring system covering all laboratory testing used for life insurance applicants, as well as blood pressure and build measurements. Using the results of testing for life insurance applicants who reported a Social Security number in conjunction with the Social Security Death Master File, the mortality associated with each test result was defined by age and sex. The individual mortality scores for each test were combined for each individual and a composite mortality risk score was developed. This score was then tested against the insurance applicant dataset to evaluate its ability to discriminate risk across age and sex. The composite risk score was highly predictive of all-cause mortality risk in a linear manner from the best to worst quintile of scores in a nearly identical fashion for each sex and decade of age. Laboratory studies, blood pressure and build from life insurance applicants can be used to create scoring that predicts all-cause mortality across age and sex. Such an approach may hold promise for preventative health screening as well.

Comparative Evaluation of Four Risk Scores for Predicting Mortality in Patients With Implantable Cardioverter-defibrillator for Primary Prevention.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Mañero, Moisés; Abu Assi, Emad; Sánchez-Gómez, Juan Miguel; Fernández-Armenta, Juan; Díaz-Infante, Ernesto; García-Bolao, Ignacio; Benezet-Mazuecos, Juan; Andrés Lahuerta, Ana; Expósito-García, Víctor; Bertomeu-González, Vicente; Arce-León, Álvaro; Barrio-López, María Teresa; Peinado, Rafael; Martínez-Sande, Luis; Arias, Miguel A

2016-11-01

Several clinical risk scores have been developed to identify patients at high risk of all-cause mortality despite implantation of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. We aimed to examine and compare the predictive capacity of 4 simple scoring systems (MADIT-II, FADES, PACE and SHOCKED) for predicting mortality after defibrillator implantation for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in a Mediterranean country. A multicenter retrospective study was performed in 15 Spanish hospitals. Consecutive patients referred for defibrillator implantation between January 2010 and December 2011 were included. A total of 916 patients with ischemic and nonischemic heart disease were included (mean age, 62 ± 11 years, 81.4% male). Over 33.4 ± 12.9 months, 113 (12.3%) patients died (cardiovascular origin in 86 [9.4%] patients). At 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, mortality rates were 4.5%, 7.6%, 10.8%, and 12.3% respectively. All the risk scores showed a stepwise increase in the risk of death throughout the scoring system of each of the scores and all 4 scores identified patients at greater risk of mortality. The scores were significantly associated with all-cause mortality throughout the follow-up period. PACE displayed the lowest c-index value regardless of whether the population had heart disease of ischemic (c-statistic = 0.61) or nonischemic origin (c-statistic = 0.61), whereas MADIT-II (c-statistic = 0.67 and 0.65 in ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy, respectively), SHOCKED (c-statistic = 0.68 and 0.66, respectively), and FADES (c-statistic = 0.66 and 0.60) provided similar c-statistic values (P ≥ .09). In this nontrial-based cohort of Mediterranean patients, the 4 evaluated risk scores showed a significant stepwise increase in the risk of death. Among the currently available risk scores, MADIT-II, FADES, and SHOCKED provide slightly better performance than PACE. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Scoring systems for outcome prediction in patients with perforated peptic ulcer.

PubMed

Thorsen, Kenneth; Søreide, Jon Arne; Søreide, Kjetil

2013-04-10

Patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) often present with acute, severe illness that carries a high risk for morbidity and mortality. Mortality ranges from 3-40% and several prognostic scoring systems have been suggested. The aim of this study was to review the available scoring systems for PPU patients, and to assert if there is evidence to prefer one to the other. We searched PubMed for the mesh terms "perforated peptic ulcer", "scoring systems", "risk factors", "outcome prediction", "mortality", "morbidity" and the combinations of these terms. In addition to relevant scores introduced in the past (e.g. Boey score), we included recent studies published between January 2000 and December 2012) that reported on scoring systems for prediction of morbidity and mortality in PPU patients. A total of ten different scoring systems used to predict outcome in PPU patients were identified; the Boey score, the Hacettepe score, the Jabalpur score the peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score, the ASA score, the Charlson comorbidity index, the sepsis score, the Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI), the Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II), the Mortality probability models II (MPM II), the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity physical sub-score (POSSUM-phys score). Only four of the scores were specifically constructed for PPU patients. In five studies the accuracy of outcome prediction of different scoring systems was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis, and the corresponding area under the curve (AUC) among studies compared. Considerable variation in performance both between different scores and between different studies was found, with the lowest and highest AUC reported between 0.63 and 0.98, respectively. While the Boey score and the ASA score are most commonly used to predict outcome for PPU patients, considerable variations in accuracy for outcome prediction were shown. Other scoring systems are hampered by a lack of validation or by their complexity that precludes routine clinical use. While the PULP score seems promising it needs external validation before widespread use.

Simple new risk score model for adult cardiac extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: simple cardiac ECMO score.

PubMed

Peigh, Graham; Cavarocchi, Nicholas; Keith, Scott W; Hirose, Hitoshi

2015-10-01

Although the use of cardiac extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is increasing in adult patients, the field lacks understanding of associated risk factors. While standard intensive care unit risk scores such as SAPS II (simplified acute physiology score II), SOFA (sequential organ failure assessment), and APACHE II (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II), or disease-specific scores such as MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) and RIFLE (kidney risk, injury, failure, loss of function, ESRD) exist, they may not apply to adult cardiac ECMO patients as their risk factors differ from variables used in these scores. Between 2010 and 2014, 73 ECMOs were performed for cardiac support at our institution. Patient demographics and survival were retrospectively analyzed. A new easily calculated score for predicting ECMO mortality was created using identified risk factors from univariate and multivariate analyses, and model discrimination was compared with other scoring systems. Cardiac ECMO was performed on 73 patients (47 males and 26 females) with a mean age of 48 ± 14 y. Sixty-four percent of patients (47/73) survived ECMO support. Pre-ECMO SAPS II, SOFA, APACHE II, MELD, RIFLE, PRESERVE, and ECMOnet scores, were not correlated with survival. Univariate analysis of pre-ECMO risk factors demonstrated that increased lactate, renal dysfunction, and postcardiotomy cardiogenic shock were risk factors for death. Applying these data into a new simplified cardiac ECMO score (minimal risk = 0, maximal = 5) predicted patient survival. Survivors had a lower risk score (1.8 ± 1.2) versus the nonsurvivors (3.0 ± 0.99), P < 0.0001. Common intensive care unit or disease-specific risk scores calculated for cardiac ECMO patients did not correlate with ECMO survival, whereas a new simplified cardiac ECMO score provides survival predictability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Auckland Cataract Study II: Reducing Complications by Preoperative Risk Stratification and Case Allocation in a Teaching Hospital.

PubMed

Kim, Bia Z; Patel, Dipika V; McKelvie, James; Sherwin, Trevor; McGhee, Charles N J

2017-09-01

To assess the effect of preoperative risk stratification for phacoemulsification surgery on intraoperative complications in a teaching hospital. Prospective cohort study. Prospective assessment of consecutive phacoemulsification cases (N = 500) enabled calculation of a risk score (M-score of 0-8) using a risk stratification system. M-scores of >3 were allocated to senior surgeons. All surgeries were performed in a public teaching hospital setting, Auckland, New Zealand, in early 2016. Postoperatively, data were reviewed for complications and corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA). Results were compared to a prospective study (N = 500, phase 1) performed prior to formal introduction of risk stratification. Intraoperative complications increased with increasing M-scores (P = .044). Median M-score for complicated cases was higher (P = .022). Odds ratio (OR) for a complication increased 1.269 per unit increase in M-score (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.007-1.599, P = .043). Overall rate of any intraoperative complication was 5.0%. Intraoperative complication rates decreased from 8.4% to 5.0% (OR = 0.576, P = .043) comparing phase 1 and phase 2 (formal introduction of risk stratification). The severity of complications also reduced. A significant decrease in complications for M = 0 (ie, minimal risk cases) was also identified comparing the current study (3.1%) to phase 1 (7.2%), P = .034. There was no change in postoperative complication risks (OR 0.812, P = .434) or in mean postoperative CDVA (20/30, P = .484) comparing current with phase 1 outcomes. A simple preoperative risk stratification system, based on standard patient information gathered at preoperative consultation, appears to reduce intraoperative complications and support safer surgical training by appropriate allocation of higher-risk cases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk scores: Who, when and why?

PubMed Central

Monteiro, Sara; Gonçalves, Tiago Cúrdia; Magalhães, Joana; Cotter, José

2016-01-01

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a significant cause of hospital admission. In order to stratify patients according to the risk of the complications, such as rebleeding or death, and to predict the need of clinical intervention, several risk scores have been proposed and their use consistently recommended by international guidelines. The use of risk scoring systems in early assessment of patients suffering from UGIB may be useful to distinguish high-risks patients, who may need clinical intervention and hospitalization, from low risk patients with a lower chance of developing complications, in which management as outpatients can be considered. Although several scores have been published and validated for predicting different outcomes, the most frequently cited ones are the Rockall score and the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS). While Rockall score, which incorporates clinical and endoscopic variables, has been validated to predict mortality, the GBS, which is based on clinical and laboratorial parameters, has been studied to predict the need of clinical intervention. Despite the advantages previously reported, their use in clinical decisions is still limited. This review describes the different risk scores used in the UGIB setting, highlights the most important research, explains why and when their use may be helpful, reflects on the problems that remain unresolved and guides future research with practical impact. PMID:26909231

[Cost-effectiveness of rosuvastatin versus simvastatin, atorvastatin and pitavastatin in patients with high and very high cardiovascular risk in Spain].

PubMed

Cosin Sales, Juan; Fuentes Jiménez, Francisco José; Mantilla Morató, Teresa; Ruiz, Emilio; Becerra, Virginia; Aceituno, Susana; Ferrario, Maria Giovanna; Lizán, Luis; Gracia, Alfredo

2015-01-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of rosuvastatin versus simvastatin, atorvastatin and pitavastatin in Spain, according to the European guidelines for the treatment of dyslipidemias in patients with high and very high cardiovascular risk. A Markov long-term cost-effectiveness model of rosuvastatin versus simvastatin, atorvastatin and pitavastatin in patients with high and very high cardiovascular risk defined according to 5 factors (sex, age, smoking habit, baseline cholesterol level, and systolic blood pressure) using the SCORE system. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is expressed in euros per quality adjusted life years and is calculated according to the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. Rosuvastatin is associated with a greater health benefit than the other statins across the considered profiles. Rosuvastatin is cost-effective compared to simvastatin in patients with SCORE risk ≥8% in females and ≥6% in males, while between 5% and the indicated values its cost-effectiveness is conditional to the patient baseline c-LDL level. Rosuvastatin is more cost-effective versus atorvastatin in female profiles associated with a SCORE risk≥11% and male profiles with SCORE risk ≥10%. Rosuvastatin is superior versus pitavastatin in both female and male profiles with high and very high cardiovascular risk. Rosuvastatin is a cost-effective therapy in the treatment of hypercholesterolemia versus simvastatin, atorvastatin and pitavastatin, especially in specific profiles of patients with high and very high cardiovascular risk factors, according to the SCORE system, in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Ventilator Dependence Risk Score for the Prediction of Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation in Patients Who Survive Sepsis/Septic Shock with Respiratory Failure.

PubMed

Chang, Ya-Chun; Huang, Kuo-Tung; Chen, Yu-Mu; Wang, Chin-Chou; Wang, Yi-Hsi; Tseng, Chia-Cheng; Lin, Meng-Chih; Fang, Wen-Feng

2018-04-04

We intended to develop a scoring system to predict mechanical ventilator dependence in patients who survive sepsis/septic shock with respiratory failure. This study evaluated 251 adult patients in medical intensive care units (ICUs) between August 2013 to October 2015, who had survived for over 21 days and received aggressive treatment. The risk factors for ventilator dependence were determined. We then constructed a ventilator dependence (VD) risk score using the identified risk factors. The ventilator dependence risk score was calculated as the sum of the following four variables after being adjusted by proportion to the beta coefficient. We assigned a history of previous stroke, a score of one point, platelet count less than 150,000/μL a score of one point, pH value less than 7.35 a score of two points, and the fraction of inspired oxygen on admission day 7 over 39% as two points. The area under the curve in the derivation group was 0.725 (p < 0.001). We then applied the VD risk score for validation on 175 patients. The area under the curve in the validation group was 0.658 (p = 0.001). VD risk score could be applied to predict prolonged mechanical ventilation in patients who survive sepsis/septic shock.

Automated Pressure Injury Risk Assessment System Incorporated Into an Electronic Health Record System.

PubMed

Jin, Yinji; Jin, Taixian; Lee, Sun-Mi

Pressure injury risk assessment is the first step toward preventing pressure injuries, but traditional assessment tools are time-consuming, resulting in work overload and fatigue for nurses. The objectives of the study were to build an automated pressure injury risk assessment system (Auto-PIRAS) that can assess pressure injury risk using data, without requiring nurses to collect or input additional data, and to evaluate the validity of this assessment tool. A retrospective case-control study and a system development study were conducted in a 1,355-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. A total of 1,305 pressure injury patients and 5,220 nonpressure injury patients participated for the development of a risk scoring algorithm: 687 and 2,748 for the validation of the algorithm and 237 and 994 for validation after clinical implementation, respectively. A total of 4,211 pressure injury-related clinical variables were extracted from the electronic health record (EHR) systems to develop a risk scoring algorithm, which was validated and incorporated into the EHR. That program was further evaluated for predictive and concurrent validity. Auto-PIRAS, incorporated into the EHR system, assigned a risk assessment score of high, moderate, or low and displayed this on the Kardex nursing record screen. Risk scores were updated nightly according to 10 predetermined risk factors. The predictive validity measures of the algorithm validation stage were as follows: sensitivity = .87, specificity = .90, positive predictive value = .68, negative predictive value = .97, Youden index = .77, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = .95. The predictive validity measures of the Braden Scale were as follows: sensitivity = .77, specificity = .93, positive predictive value = .72, negative predictive value = .95, Youden index = .70, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = .85. The kappa of the Auto-PIRAS and Braden Scale risk classification result was .73. The predictive performance of the Auto-PIRAS was similar to Braden Scale assessments conducted by nurses. Auto-PIRAS is expected to be used as a system that assesses pressure injury risk automatically without additional data collection by nurses.

Prospective evaluation of the Sunshine Appendicitis Grading System score.

PubMed

Reid, Fiona; Choi, Julian; Williams, Marli; Chan, Steven

2017-05-01

Although there is a wealth of information predicting risk of post-operative intra-abdominal collection and guiding antibiotic therapy following appendicectomy, confusion remains because of lack of consensus on the clinical severity and definition of 'complicated' appendicitis. This study aimed to develop a standardized intra-operative grading system: Sunshine Appendicitis Grading System (SAGS) for acute appendicitis that correlates independently with the risk of intra-abdominal collections. Two-hundred and forty-six patients undergoing emergency laparoscopy for suspected appendicitis were prospectively scored according to the severity of appendicitis and followed up for complications including intra-abdominal collection. After termination of the study, the SAGS score was repeated by an independent surgeon based on operation notes and intra-operative photography to determine inter-rater agreement. The primary outcome measure was incidence of intra-abdominal collection, secondary outcome measures were all complications and length of stay. SAGS score demonstrated good inter-rater agreement (kappa K w 0.869; 95% CI 0.796-0.941; P < 0.001). A risk ratio of 2.594 (95% CI 0.655-4.065; P < 0.001) for intra-abdominal collection was found using SAGS score as a predictor. The discriminative ability of SAGS score was supported by an area under the curve value of 0.850 (95% CI 0.799-0.892; P < 0.001). SAGS score can be used to simply and accurately classify the severity of appendicitis and to independently predict the risk of intra-abdominal collection. It can therefore be used to stratify risk, guide antibiotic therapy, follow-up and standardize the definitions of appendicitis severity for future research. © 2015 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Scoring systems for outcome prediction in patients with perforated peptic ulcer

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) often present with acute, severe illness that carries a high risk for morbidity and mortality. Mortality ranges from 3-40% and several prognostic scoring systems have been suggested. The aim of this study was to review the available scoring systems for PPU patients, and to assert if there is evidence to prefer one to the other. Material and methods We searched PubMed for the mesh terms “perforated peptic ulcer”, “scoring systems”, “risk factors”, ”outcome prediction”, “mortality”, ”morbidity” and the combinations of these terms. In addition to relevant scores introduced in the past (e.g. Boey score), we included recent studies published between January 2000 and December 2012) that reported on scoring systems for prediction of morbidity and mortality in PPU patients. Results A total of ten different scoring systems used to predict outcome in PPU patients were identified; the Boey score, the Hacettepe score, the Jabalpur score the peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score, the ASA score, the Charlson comorbidity index, the sepsis score, the Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI), the Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II), the Mortality probability models II (MPM II), the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity physical sub-score (POSSUM-phys score). Only four of the scores were specifically constructed for PPU patients. In five studies the accuracy of outcome prediction of different scoring systems was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis, and the corresponding area under the curve (AUC) among studies compared. Considerable variation in performance both between different scores and between different studies was found, with the lowest and highest AUC reported between 0.63 and 0.98, respectively. Conclusion While the Boey score and the ASA score are most commonly used to predict outcome for PPU patients, considerable variations in accuracy for outcome prediction were shown. Other scoring systems are hampered by a lack of validation or by their complexity that precludes routine clinical use. While the PULP score seems promising it needs external validation before widespread use. PMID:23574922

A NOVEL SCORING SYSTEM: PREDICTING SEPTIC SHOCK AT DIAGNOSIS EASILY IN ACUTE COMPLICATED PYELONEPHRITIS PATIENTS.

PubMed

Kubota, Masashi; Kanno, Toru; Nishiyama, Ryuichi; Okada, Takashi; Higashi, Yoshihito; Yamada, Hitoshi

2016-01-01

(Objectives) Because acute complicated pyelonephritis can easily cause sepsis and concomitant shock status, it is a potentially lethal disease. However, the predictors for the severity of pyelonephritis is not well analyzed. In this study, we aimed at clarifying the clinical characteristic risk factors associated with septic shock in patients with acute complicated pyelonephritis. (Materials and methods) From May 2009 to March 2014, 267 patients with acute complicated pyelonephritis were treated at our institution. We investigated the characteristics of the patients associated with septic shock, and assessed risk factors in these patients. By using these risk factors, we established a novel scoring system to predict septic shock. (Results) 267 patients included 145 patients with ureteral calculi and 75 patients with stent-related pyelonephritis. Septic shock occurred in 35 patients (13%), and the mortality rate was 0.75%. Multivariate analysis revealed that (P): Performance Status ≥3 (p=0.0014), (U): Presence of Ureteral calculi (p=0.043), (S): Sex of female (p=0.023), and (H): the presence of Hydronephrosis (p=0.039) were independent risk factors for septic shock. P.U.S.H. scoring system (range 0-4), which consists of these 4 factors, were positively correlated with the rate of septic shock (score 0: 0%, 1: 5.3%, 2: 3.4%, 3: 25.0%, 4: 42.3%). Importantly, patients with 3-4 P.U.S.H. scores were statistically more likely to become septic shock than those with 0-2 score (p=0.00014). (Conclusions) These results suggest that P.U.S.H. scoring system using 4 clinical factors is useful to predict the status of septic shock in patients with acute complicated pyelonephritis.

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gearhart, Jared Lee; Samberson, Jonell Nicole; Shettigar, Subhasini

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element canmore » be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).« less

External Validation of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) for Risk Prioritization in an Iranian Population

PubMed Central

Atashi, Alireza; Amini, Shahram; Tashnizi, Mohammad Abbasi; Moeinipour, Ali Asghar; Aazami, Mathias Hossain; Tohidnezhad, Fariba; Ghasemi, Erfan; Eslami, Saeid

2018-01-01

Introduction The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) is a prediction model which maps 18 predictors to a 30-day post-operative risk of death concentrating on accurate stratification of candidate patients for cardiac surgery. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the performance of the EuroSCORE II risk-analysis predictions among patients who underwent heart surgeries in one area of Iran. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect the required variables for all consecutive patients who underwent heart surgeries at Emam Reza hospital, Northeast Iran between 2014 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify covariates which significantly contribute to higher EuroSCORE II in our population. External validation was performed by comparing the real and expected mortality using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discrimination assessment. Also, Brier Score and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to show the overall performance and calibration level, respectively. Results Two thousand five hundred eight one (59.6% males) were included. The observed mortality rate was 3.3%, but EuroSCORE II had a prediction of 4.7%. Although the overall performance was acceptable (Brier score=0.047), the model showed poor discriminatory power by AUC=0.667 (sensitivity=61.90, and specificity=66.24) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P<0.01). Conclusion Our study showed that the EuroSCORE II discrimination power is less than optimal for outcome prediction and less accurate for resource allocation programs. It highlights the need for recalibration of this risk stratification tool aiming to improve post cardiac surgery outcome predictions in Iran. PMID:29617500

Quantifying risk and assessing outcome in cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Higgins, T L

1998-06-01

Quality improvement, research, and reporting of outcome results can be stratified by preoperative risk by using a logistic regression equation or scores to correct for multiple risk factors. The more than 30-fold mortality differences between lowest and highest risk patients make it critical to stratify outcome results by patient severity. Probabilities are not predictions, however, and caution must be exercised when applying scores to individuals. Outcome assessment will grow in its importance to professionals, initially in the guise of quality reporting and improvement, but increasingly as a tool for risk assessment, patient counseling, and directing therapeutic decisions based on more complete information about patient subgroups. Physicians may be called on for recommendations in choosing systems for their hospitals and communities. Therefore, it is important to have an understanding of how such systems are developed, what factors indicate adequate performance of a system, and how such systems of risk stratification should be applied in practice.

APACHE II score in massive upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage from peptic ulcer: prognostic value and potential clinical applications.

PubMed

Schein, M; Gecelter, G

1989-07-01

This study examined the prognostic value of the APACHE II scoring system in patients undergoing emergency operations for bleeding peptic ulcer. There were 96 operations for gastric ulcers and 58 for duodenal ulcers. The mean scores in survivors and in patients who died were 10.8 and 17.5 respectively. None of the 66 patients with an APACHE II score less than 11 died, while the mortality rate in those scored greater than 10 was 22 per cent. In patients scored greater than 10 non-resective procedures carried less risk of mortality than gastrectomy. The APACHE II score is useful when measuring the severity of the acute disease and predicting the outcome in these patients. If used in daily practice it may assist the surgeon in stratifying patients into a low-risk group (score less than 11) in which major operations are well tolerated and outcome is favourable and a high-risk group (score greater than 10) in which the risk of mortality is high and the performance of procedures of lesser magnitude is probably more likely to improve survival.

Diet-quality scores and risk of hip fractures in elderly urban Chinese in Guangdong, China: a case-control study.

PubMed

Zeng, F F; Xue, W Q; Cao, W T; Wu, B H; Xie, H L; Fan, F; Zhu, H L; Chen, Y M

2014-08-01

This case-control study compared the associations of four widely used diet-quality scoring systems with the risk of hip fractures and assessed their utility in elderly Chinese. We found that individuals avoiding a low-quality diet have a lower risk of hip fractures in elderly Chinese. Few studies examined the associations of diet-quality scores on bone health, and no studies were available in Asians and compared their validity and utility in a study. We assessed the associations and utility of four widely used diet-quality scoring systems with the risk of hip fractures. A case-control study of 726 patients with hip fractures (diagnosed within 2 weeks) aged 55-80 years and 726 age- (within 3 years) and gender-matched controls was conducted in Guangdong, China (2009-2013). Dietary intake was assessed using a 79-item food frequency questionnaire with face-to-face interviews, and the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005, 12 items), the alternate Healthy Eating Index (aHEI, 8 items), the Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I, 17 items), and the alternate Mediterranean Diet Score (aMed, 9 items) (the simplest one) were calculated. All greater values of the diet-quality scores were significantly associated with a similar decreased risk of hip fractures (all p trends <0.001). The multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidential intervals (95% CIs) comparing the extreme groups of diet-quality scores were 0.29 (0.18, 0.46) (HEI-2005), 0.20 (0.12, 0.33) (aHEI), 0.25 (0.16, 0.39) (DQI-I), and 0.28 (0.18, 0.43) (aMed) in total subjects; and the corresponding ORs ranged from 0.04 to 0.27 for men and from 0.26 to 0.44 for women (all p trends <0.05), respectively. Avoiding a low-quality diet is associated with a lower risk of hip fractures, and the aMed score is the best scoring system due to its equivalent performance and simplicity for the user.

Cumulative risk effect of household dysfunction for child maltreatment after intensive intervention of the child protection system in Japan: a longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Ohashi, Hirotsuna; Wada, Ichiro; Yamaoka, Yui; Nakajima-Yamaguchi, Ryoko; Ogai, Yasukazu; Morita, Nobuaki

2018-04-20

Building an effective casework system for child maltreatment is a global issue. We estimated the effect of household dysfunction (i.e., interparental violence, caregiver mental health problems, and caregiver substance abuse) on child maltreatment to understand how to advance the current framework of child welfare. The sample comprised 759 children (1- to 17-year-old; mean age was 10.6; 404 boys and 355 girls) placed in temporary custody units (one of the strongest intervention of the Japanese child protection system). Caseworkers from 180 units across 43 prefectures completed questionnaires on children and their family and were asked whether a child maltreatment report had been made after cancelation of custody in a 15-month follow-up period. The relations of household dysfunction and maltreatment reports were assessed using the Cox proportional hazard model. About half (48.4%) of the children had been placed in the unit because of maltreatment, and 88.3% had a history of victimization. Seventy-six cases had maltreatment reports after cancelation. We entered household dysfunction variables individually into the model, and each had a significant relationship with maltreatment reports (hazard ratios for interparental violence, caregiver mental health problem, and substance abuse were 1.69, 1.69, and 2.19, respectively) after covariate adjustment. When treating these three variables as cumulative risk score model of household dysfunction, the hazard ratio increased with increasing number of score (1.96 for score two; 2.35 for score three; score 0 as reference). Greater household dysfunction score is a risk of maltreatment after intensive intervention. It is imperative to construct systems facilitating cooperation between child and adult service sectors and to deliver seamless services to children and families. Our findings provide child protect services with risk-stratified interventions for children at victimization risk and promote adult-focused services to be proactive in prevention or intervention for adults with perpetration risk.

Simplification of a scoring system maintained overall accuracy but decreased the proportion classified as low risk.

PubMed

Sanders, Sharon; Flaws, Dylan; Than, Martin; Pickering, John W; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul

2016-01-01

Scoring systems are developed to assist clinicians in making a diagnosis. However, their uptake is often limited because they are cumbersome to use, requiring information on many predictors, or complicated calculations. We examined whether, and how, simplifications affected the performance of a validated score for identifying adults with chest pain in an emergency department who have low risk of major adverse cardiac events. We simplified the Emergency Department Assessment of Chest pain Score (EDACS) by three methods: (1) giving equal weight to each predictor included in the score, (2) reducing the number of predictors, and (3) using both methods--giving equal weight to a reduced number of predictors. The diagnostic accuracy of the simplified scores was compared with the original score in the derivation (n = 1,974) and validation (n = 909) data sets. There was no difference in the overall accuracy of the simplified versions of the score compared with the original EDACS as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.74 to 0.75 for simplified versions vs. 0.75 for the original score in the validation cohort). With score cut-offs set to maintain the sensitivity of the combination of score and tests (electrocardiogram and cardiac troponin) at a level acceptable to clinicians (99%), simplification reduced the proportion of patients classified as low risk from 50% with the original score to between 22% and 42%. Simplification of a clinical score resulted in similar overall accuracy but reduced the proportion classified as low risk and therefore eligible for early discharge compared with the original score. Whether the trade-off is acceptable, will depend on the context in which the score is to be used. Developers of clinical scores should consider simplification as a method to increase uptake, but further studies are needed to determine the best methods of deriving and evaluating simplified scores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calculating the risk of a pancreatic fistula after a pancreaticoduodenectomy: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Vallance, Abigail E; Young, Alastair L; Macutkiewicz, Christian; Roberts, Keith J; Smith, Andrew M

2015-01-01

Background A post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality after a pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). This systematic review aimed to identify all scoring systems to predict POPF after a PD, consider their clinical applicability and assess the study quality. Method An electronic search was performed of Medline (1946–2014) and EMBASE (1996–2014) databases. Results were screened according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, and quality assessed according to the QUIPS (quality in prognostic studies) tool. Results Six eligible scoring systems were identified. Five studies used the International Study Group on Pancreatic Fistula (ISGPF) definition. The proposed scores feature between two and five variables and of the 16 total variables, the majority (12) featured in only one score. Three scores could be fully completed pre-operatively whereas 1 score included intra-operative and two studies post-operative variables. Four scores were internally validated and of these, two scores have been subject to subsequent multicentre review. The median QUIPS score was 38 out of 50 (range 16–50). Conclusion These scores show potential in calculating the individualized patient risk of POPF. There is, however, much variation in current scoring systems and further validation in large multicentre cohorts is now needed. PMID:26456948

The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms.

PubMed

Nishida, Takahiro; Sonoda, Hiromichi; Oishi, Yasuhisa; Tanoue, Yoshihisa; Nakashima, Atsuhiro; Shiokawa, Yuichi; Tominaga, Ryuji

2014-04-01

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was developed to improve the overestimation of surgical risk associated with the original (additive and logistic) EuroSCOREs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the EuroSCORE II by comparing its performance with that of the original EuroSCOREs in Japanese patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta. We have calculated the predicted mortalities according to the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms in 461 patients who underwent surgery on the thoracic aorta during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). The actual in-hospital mortality rates in the low- (additive EuroSCORE of 3-6), moderate- (7-11) and high-risk (≥11) groups (followed by overall mortality) were 1.3, 6.2 and 14.4% (7.2% overall), respectively. Among the three different risk groups, the expected mortality rates were 5.5 ± 0.6, 9.1 ± 0.7 and 13.5 ± 0.2% (9.5 ± 0.1% overall) by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm, 5.3 ± 0.1, 16 ± 0.4 and 42.4 ± 1.3% (19.9 ± 0.7% overall) by the logistic EuroSCORE algorithm and 1.6 ± 0.1, 5.2 ± 0.2 and 18.5 ± 1.3% (7.4 ± 0.4% overall) by the EuroSCORE II algorithm, indicating poor prediction (P < 0.0001) of the mortality in the high-risk group, especially by the logistic EuroSCORE. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms were 0.6937, 0.7169 and 0.7697, respectively. Thus, the mortality expected by the EuroSCORE II more closely matched the actual mortality in all three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE overestimated the risks in the moderate- (P = 0.0002) and high-risk (P < 0.0001) patient groups. Although all of the original EuroSCOREs and EuroSCORE II appreciably predicted the surgical mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in Japanese patients, the EuroSCORE II best predicted the mortalities in all risk groups.

Comparison of the MASCC and CISNE scores for identifying low-risk neutropenic fever patients: analysis of data from three emergency departments of cancer centers in three continents.

PubMed

Ahn, Shin; Rice, Terry W; Yeung, Sai-Ching J; Cooksley, Tim

2018-05-01

Patients with febrile neutropenia are a heterogeneous group with a minority developing serious medical complications. Outpatient management of low-risk febrile neutropenia has been shown to be safe and cost-effective. Scoring systems, such as the Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) score and Clinical Index of Stable Febrile Neutropenia (CISNE), have been developed and validated to identify low-risk patients. We aimed to compare the performance of these two scores in identifying low-risk febrile neutropenic patients. We performed a pooled analysis of patients presenting with febrile neutropenia to three tertiary cancer emergency centers in the USA, UK, and South Korea in 2015. The primary outcome measures were the occurrence of serious complications. Admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and 30-day mortality were secondary outcomes. The predictive performance of each score was analyzed. Five hundred seventy-one patients presented with febrile neutropenia. With MASCC risk index, 508 (89.1%) were classified as low-risk febrile neutropenia, compared to 60 (10.5%) with CISNE classification. Overall, the MASCC score had a greater discriminatory power in the detection of low-risk patients than the CISNE score (AUC 0.772, 95% CI 0.726-0.819 vs. 0.681, 95% CI 0.626-0.737, p = 0.0024). Both MASCC and CISNE scores have reasonable discriminatory value in predicting patients with low-risk febrile neutropenia. Risk scores should be used in conjunction with clinical judgment for the identification of patients suitable for outpatient management of neutropenic fever. Developing more accurate scores, validated in prospective settings, will be useful in facilitating more patients being managed in an outpatient setting.

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

PubMed

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

The Zhongshan score: a novel and simple anatomic classification system to predict perioperative outcomes of nephron-sparing surgery.

PubMed

Zhou, Lin; Guo, Jianming; Wang, Hang; Wang, Guomin

2015-02-01

In the zero ischemia era of nephron-sparing surgery (NSS), a new anatomic classification system (ACS) is needed to adjust to these new surgical techniques. We devised a novel and simple ACS, and compared it with the RENAL and PADUA scores to predict the risk of NSS outcomes. We retrospectively evaluated 789 patients who underwent NSS with available imaging between January 2007 and July 2014. Demographic and clinical data were assessed. The Zhongshan (ZS) score consisted of three parameters. RENAL, PADUA, and ZS scores are divided into three groups, that is, high, moderate, and low scores. For operative time (OT), significant differences were seen between any two groups of ZS score and PADUA score (all P < 0.05). For ZS score, patients with moderate and high scores had longer warm ischemia time (WIT) and greater increase in SCr compared with low score (all P < 0.05). What is more, the differences between moderate and high scores classified by ZS score were borderline but trending toward significance in WIT (P = 0.064) and increase in SCr (P = 0.052). Interestingly, RENAL showed no significant difference between moderate and high complexity in OT, WIT, estimated blood loss, and increase in SCr. Compared with patients with a low score of ZS, those with a high or moderate score had 8.1-fold or 3.3-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). As for RENAL score, patients with a high or moderate score had 5.7-fold or 1.9-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). Patients with a high or moderate score of PADUA had 2.3-fold or 2.8-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). In the ROC curve analysis, ZS score had the greatest AUC for surgical complications (AUC = 0.632) and the conversion to radical nephrectomy (AUC = 0.845) (all P < 0.05). In conclusion, the ability of ZS score to predict the surgical complexity and surgical complications of NSS is better than RENAL and PADUA scores. ZS score could be used to reflect the surgical complexity and predict the risk of surgical complications in patients undergoing NSS.

Systematic screening of common wastewater-marking pharmaceuticals in urban aquatic environments: implications for environmental risk control.

PubMed

Zhou, Haidong; Zhang, Qingjun; Wang, Xuelian; Zhang, Qianqian; Ma, Lixin; Zhan, Yong

2014-01-01

In this report, we refer to pharmaceuticals that are widespread in the urban aquatic environment and that mainly originate from wastewater treatment plants or non-point source sewage as "wastewater-marking pharmaceuticals" (WWMPs). To some extent, they reflect the condition or trend of water contamination and also contribute to aquatic environmental risk assessment. The method reported here for screening typical WWMPs was proposed based on academic concerns about them and their concentrations present in the urban aquatic environment, as well as their properties of accumulation, persistence, eco-toxicity and related environmental risks caused by them. The screening system consisted of an initial screening system and a further screening system. In the former, pharmaceuticals were categorised into different evaluation levels, and in the latter, each pharmaceutical was given a normalised final evaluation score, which was the sum of every score for its properties of accumulation, persistence, eco-toxicity and environmental risk in the aquatic environment. The system was applied to 126 pharmaceuticals frequently detected in the aquatic environment. In the initial screening procedure, five pharmaceuticals were classified into the "high" category, 16 pharmaceuticals into the "medium" category, 15 pharmaceuticals into the "low" category and 90 pharmaceuticals into the "very low" category. Subsequently, further screening were conducted on 36 pharmaceuticals considered as being of "high", "medium" and "low" categories in the former system. We identified 7 pharmaceuticals with final evaluation scores of 1-10, 10 pharmaceuticals with scores of 11-15, 15 pharmaceuticals with scores from 16 to 20 and 4 pharmaceuticals with scores above 21. The results showed that this screening system could contribute to the effective selection of target WWMPs, which would be important for spatial-temporal dynamics, transference and pollution control of pharmaceuticals in the urban aquatic environment. However, there remains a number of pharmaceutical parameters with measured data gaps, such as organic carbon adsorption coefficients and bioconcentration factors, which, if filled, would improve the accuracy of the screening system.

The Introduction of Adult Appendicitis Score Reduced Negative Appendectomy Rate.

PubMed

Sammalkorpi, H E; Mentula, P; Savolainen, H; Leppäniemi, A

2017-09-01

Implementation of a clinical risk score into diagnostics of acute appendicitis may provide accurate diagnosis with selective use of imaging studies. The aim of this study was to prospectively validate recently described diagnostic scoring system, Adult Appendicitis Score, and evaluate its effects on negative appendectomy rate. Adult Appendicitis Score stratifies patients into three groups: high, intermediate, and low risk of appendicitis. The score was implemented in diagnostics of adult patients suspected of acute appendicitis in two university hospitals. We analyzed the effects of Adult Appendicitis Score on diagnostic accuracy, imaging studies, and treatment. The study population was compared with a reference population of 829 patients suspected of acute appendicitis originally enrolled for the study of construction of the Adult Appendicitis Score. This study enrolled 908 patients of whom 432 (48%) had appendicitis. The score stratified 49% of all appendicitis patients into high-risk group with specificity of 93.3%. In the low-risk group, prevalence of appendicitis was 7%. The histologically confirmed negative appendectomy rate decreased from 18.2% to 8.7%, p<0.001, compared to the original dataset. Adult Appendicitis Score is a reliable tool for stratification of patients into selective imaging, which results in low negative appendectomy rate.

Risk score for first-screening of prevalent undiagnosed chronic kidney disease in Peru: the CRONICAS-CKD risk score.

PubMed

Carrillo-Larco, Rodrigo M; Miranda, J Jaime; Gilman, Robert H; Medina-Lezama, Josefina; Chirinos-Pacheco, Julio A; Muñoz-Retamozo, Paola V; Smeeth, Liam; Checkley, William; Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio

2017-11-29

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) represents a great burden for the patient and the health system, particularly if diagnosed at late stages. Consequently, tools to identify patients at high risk of having CKD are needed, particularly in limited-resources settings where laboratory facilities are scarce. This study aimed to develop a risk score for prevalent undiagnosed CKD using data from four settings in Peru: a complete risk score including all associated risk factors and another excluding laboratory-based variables. Cross-sectional study. We used two population-based studies: one for developing and internal validation (CRONICAS), and another (PREVENCION) for external validation. Risk factors included clinical- and laboratory-based variables, among others: sex, age, hypertension and obesity; and lipid profile, anemia and glucose metabolism. The outcome was undiagnosed CKD: eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 . We tested the performance of the risk scores using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive values and positive/negative likelihood ratios. Participants in both studies averaged 57.7 years old, and over 50% were females. Age, hypertension and anemia were strongly associated with undiagnosed CKD. In the external validation, at a cut-off point of 2, the complete and laboratory-free risk scores performed similarly well with a ROC area of 76.2% and 76.0%, respectively (P = 0.784). The best assessment parameter of these risk scores was their negative predictive value: 99.1% and 99.0% for the complete and laboratory-free, respectively. The developed risk scores showed a moderate performance as a screening test. People with a score of ≥ 2 points should undergo further testing to rule out CKD. Using the laboratory-free risk score is a practical approach in developing countries where laboratories are not readily available and undiagnosed CKD has significant morbidity and mortality.

Antipsychotics and mortality: adjusting for mortality risk scores to address confounding by terminal illness.

PubMed

Park, Yoonyoung; Franklin, Jessica M; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Levin, Raisa; Crystal, Stephen; Gerhard, Tobias; Huybrechts, Krista F

2015-03-01

To determine whether adjustment for prognostic indices specifically developed for nursing home (NH) populations affect the magnitude of previously observed associations between mortality and conventional and atypical antipsychotics. Cohort study. A merged data set of Medicaid, Medicare, Minimum Data Set (MDS), Online Survey Certification and Reporting system, and National Death Index for 2001 to 2005. Dual-eligible individuals aged 65 and older who initiated antipsychotic treatment in a NH (N=75,445). Three mortality risk scores (Mortality Risk Index Score, Revised MDS Mortality Risk Index, Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool) were derived for each participant using baseline MDS data, and their performance was assessed using c-statistics and goodness-of-fit tests. The effect of adjusting for these indices in addition to propensity scores (PSs) on the association between antipsychotic medication and mortality was evaluated using Cox models with and without adjustment for risk scores. Each risk score showed moderate discrimination for 6-month mortality, with c-statistics ranging from 0.61 to 0.63. There was no evidence of lack of fit. Imbalances in risk scores between conventional and atypical antipsychotic users, suggesting potential confounding, were much lower within PS deciles than the imbalances in the full cohort. Accounting for each score in the Cox model did not change the relative risk estimates: 2.24 with PS-only adjustment versus 2.20, 2.20, and 2.22 after further adjustment for the three risk scores. Although causality cannot be proven based on nonrandomized studies, this study adds to the body of evidence rejecting explanations other than causality for the greater mortality risk associated with conventional antipsychotics than with atypical antipsychotics. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

Validation of Risk Scoring System Excluding Female Sex From CHA2DS2-VASc in Japanese Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation – Subanalysis of the J-RHYTHM Registry.

PubMed

Tomita, Hirofumi; Okumura, Ken; Inoue, Hiroshi; Atarashi, Hirotsugu; Yamashita, Takeshi; Origasa, Hideki; Tsushima, Eiki

2015-01-01

Because the current Japanese guideline recommends CHADS2 score-based risk stratification in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients and does not list female sex as a risk for thromboembolic events, we designed the present study to compare the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHA2DS2-VA scores in the J-RHYTHM Registry. We prospectively assessed the incidence of thromboembolic events for 2 years in 997 NVAF patients without warfarin treatment (age 68±12 years, 294 females). The predictive value of the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHA2DS2-VA scores for thromboembolic events was evaluated by c-statistic difference and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Thromboembolic events occurred in 7/294 females (1.2%/year) and 23/703 males (1.6%/year) (odds ratio 0.72 for female to male, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.28-1.62, P=0.44). No sex difference was found in patient groups stratified by CHA2DS2-VASc and CHA2DS2-VA scores. There were significant c-statistic difference (0.029, Z=2.3, P=0.02) and NRI (0.11, 95% CI 0.01-0.20, P=0.02), with the CHA2DS2-VA score being superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc score. In patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores 0 and 1 (n=374), there were markedly significant c-statistic difference (0.053, Z=6.6, P<0.0001) and NRI (0.11, 95% CI 0.07-0.14, P<0.0001), again supporting superiority of CHA2DS2-VA to CHA2DS2-VASc score. In Japanese NVAF patients, the CHA2DS2-VA score, a risk scoring system excluding female sex from CHA2DS2-VASc, may be more useful in risk stratification for thromboembolic events than CHA2DS2-VASc score, especially in identifying truly low-risk patients.

Development and validation of a surgical-pathologic staging and scoring system for cervical cancer.

PubMed

Li, Shuang; Li, Xiong; Zhang, Yuan; Zhou, Hang; Tang, Fangxu; Jia, Yao; Hu, Ting; Sun, Haiying; Yang, Ru; Chen, Yile; Cheng, Xiaodong; Lv, Weiguo; Wu, Li; Zhou, Jin; Wang, Shaoshuai; Huang, Kecheng; Wang, Lin; Yao, Yuan; Yang, Qifeng; Yang, Xingsheng; Zhang, Qinghua; Han, Xiaobing; Lin, Zhongqiu; Xing, Hui; Qu, Pengpeng; Cai, Hongbing; Song, Xiaojie; Tian, Xiaoyu; Shen, Jian; Xi, Ling; Li, Kezhen; Deng, Dongrui; Wang, Hui; Wang, Changyu; Wu, Mingfu; Zhu, Tao; Chen, Gang; Gao, Qinglei; Wang, Shixuan; Hu, Junbo; Kong, Beihua; Xie, Xing; Ma, Ding

2016-04-12

Most cervical cancer patients worldwide receive surgical treatments, and yet the current International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system do not consider surgical-pathologic data. We propose a more comprehensive and prognostically valuable surgical-pathologic staging and scoring system (SPSs). Records from 4,220 eligible cervical cancer cases (Cohort 1) were screened for surgical-pathologic risk factors. We constructed a surgical-pathologic staging and SPSs, which was subsequently validated in a prospective study of 1,104 cervical cancer patients (Cohort 2). In Cohort 1, seven independent risk factors were associated with patient outcome: lymph node metastasis (LNM), parametrial involvement, histological type, grade, tumor size, stromal invasion, and lymph-vascular space invasion (LVSI). The FIGO staging system was revised and expanded into a surgical-pathologic staging system by including additional criteria of LNM, stromal invasion, and LVSI. LNM was subdivided into three categories based on number and location of metastases. Inclusion of all seven prognostic risk factors improves practical applicability. Patients were stratified into three SPSs risk categories: zero-, low-, and high-score with scores of 0, 1 to 3, and ≥4 (P=1.08E-45; P=6.15E-55). In Cohort 2, 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) outcomes decreased with increased SPSs scores (P=9.04E-15; P=3.23E-16), validating the approach. Surgical-pathologic staging and SPSs show greater homogeneity and discriminatory utility than FIGO staging. Surgical-pathologic staging and SPSs improve characterization of tumor severity and disease invasion, which may more accurately predict outcome and guide postoperative therapy.

Peritumoral Artery Scoring System: a Novel Scoring System to Predict Renal Function Outcome after Laparoscopic Partial Nephrectomy.

PubMed

Zhang, Ruiyun; Wu, Guangyu; Huang, Jiwei; Shi, Oumin; Kong, Wen; Chen, Yonghui; Xu, Jianrong; Xue, Wei; Zhang, Jin; Huang, Yiran

2017-06-06

The present study aimed to assess the impact of peritumoral artery characteristics on renal function outcome prediction using a novel Peritumoral Artery Scoring System based on computed tomography arteriography. Peritumoral artery characteristics and renal function were evaluated in 220 patients who underwent laparoscopic partial nephrectomy and then validate in 51 patients with split and total glomerular filtration rate (GFR). In particular, peritumoral artery classification and diameter were measured to assign arteries into low, moderate, and high Peritumoral Artery Scoring System risk categories. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were then used to determine risk factors for major renal functional decline. The Peritumoral Artery Scoring System and four other nephrometry systems were compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The Peritumoral Artery Scoring System was significantly superior to the other systems for predicting postoperative renal function decline (p < 0.001). In receiver operating characteristic analysis, our category system was a superior independent predictor of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline (area-under-the-curve = 0.865, p < 0.001) and total GFR decline (area-under-the-curve = 0.796, p < 0.001), and split GFR decline (area-under-the-curve = 0.841, p < 0.001). Peritumoral artery characteristics were independent predictors of renal function outcome after laparoscopic partial nephrectomy.

Percutaneous mitral valve repair with the MitraClip system according to the predicted risk by the logistic EuroSCORE: preliminary results from the German Transcatheter Mitral Valve Interventions (TRAMI) Registry.

PubMed

Wiebe, Jens; Franke, Jennifer; Lubos, Edith; Boekstegers, Peter; Schillinger, Wolfgang; Ouarrak, Taoufik; May, Andreas E; Eggebrecht, Holger; Kuck, Karl-Heinz; Baldus, Stephan; Senges, Jochen; Sievert, Horst

2014-10-01

To evaluate in-hospital and short-term outcomes of percutaneous mitral valve repair according to patients' logistic EuroSCORE (logEuroSCORE) in a multicenter registry The logEuroSCORE is an established tool to predict the risk of mortality during cardiac surgery. In high-risk patients percutaneous mitral valve repair with the MitraClip system represents a less-invasive alternative Data from 1002 patients, who underwent percutaneous mitral valve repair with the MitraClip system, were analyzed in the German Transcatheter Mitral Valve Interventions (TRAMI) Registry. A logEuroSCORE (mortality risk in %) ≥ 20 was considered high risk Of all patients, 557 (55.6%) had a logEuroSCORE ≥ 20. Implantation of the MitraClip was successful in 95.5 % (942/986) patients. Moderate residual mitral valve regurgitation was more often detected in patients with a logEuroSCORE ≥ 20 (23.8% vs. 17.1%, respectively, P < 0.05). In patients with a logEuroSCORE ≥ 20 the procedural complication rate was 8.9% (vs. 6.4, n.s.) and the in-hospital MACCE rate 4.9% (vs. 1.4% P < 0.01). The in-hospital mortality rate in patients with a logEuroSCORE ≥ 20 and logEuroSCORE < 20 was 4.3 and 1.1%, respectively (P ≤ 0.01) CONCLUSION: Percutaneous mitral valve repair with the MitraClip system is feasible in patients with a logEuroSCORE ≥ 20 with similar procedural results compared to patients with lower predicted risk. Although mortality was four times higher than in patients with logEuroSCORE < 20, mortality in high risk patients was lower than predicted. In those with a logEuroSCORE ≥ 20, moderate residual mitral valve regurgitation was more frequent. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Measuring coding intensity in the Medicare Advantage program.

PubMed

Kronick, Richard; Welch, W Pete

2014-01-01

In 2004, Medicare implemented a system of paying Medicare Advantage (MA) plans that gave them greater incentive than fee-for-service (FFS) providers to report diagnoses. Risk scores for all Medicare beneficiaries 2004-2013 and Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) data, 2006-2011. Change in average risk score for all enrollees and for stayers (beneficiaries who were in either FFS or MA for two consecutive years). Prevalence rates by Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC). Each year the average MA risk score increased faster than the average FFS score. Using the risk adjustment model in place in 2004, the average MA score as a ratio of the average FFS score would have increased from 90% in 2004 to 109% in 2013. Using the model partially implemented in 2014, the ratio would have increased from 88% to 102%. The increase in relative MA scores appears to largely reflect changes in diagnostic coding, not real increases in the morbidity of MA enrollees. In survey-based data for 2006-2011, the MA-FFS ratio of risk scores remained roughly constant at 96%. Intensity of coding varies widely by contract, with some contracts coding very similarly to FFS and others coding much more intensely than the MA average. Underpinning this relative growth in scores is particularly rapid relative growth in a subset of HCCs. Medicare has taken significant steps to mitigate the effects of coding intensity in MA, including implementing a 3.4% coding intensity adjustment in 2010 and revising the risk adjustment model in 2013 and 2014. Given the continuous relative increase in the average MA risk score, further policy changes will likely be necessary.

The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer.

PubMed

Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K

2016-02-01

Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001). The PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P < 0.001) and OS (HR 2.2; P < 0.001). The PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

Feasibility of a Modified E-PASS and POSSUM System for Postoperative Risk Assessment in Patients with Spinal Disease.

PubMed

Chun, Dong Hyun; Kim, Do Young; Choi, Sun Kyu; Shin, Dong Ah; Ha, Yoon; Kim, Keung Nyun; Yoon, Do Heum; Yi, Seong

2018-04-01

This retrospective case control study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of using Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems in patients undergoing spinal surgical procedures. Degenerative spine disease has increased in incidence in aging societies, as has the number of older adult patients undergoing spinal surgery. Many older adults are at a high surgical risk because of comorbidity and poor general health. We retrospectively reviewed 217 patients who had undergone spinal surgery at a single tertiary care. We investigated complications within 1 month after surgery. Criteria for both skin incision in E-PASS and operation magnitude in the POSSUM system were modified to fit spine surgery. We calculated the E-PASS and POSSUM scores for enrolled patients, and investigated the relationship between postoperative complications and both surgical risk scoring systems. To reinforce the predictive ability of the E-PASS system, we adjusted equations and developed modified E-PASS systems. The overall complication rate for spinal surgery was 22.6%. Forty-nine patients experienced 58 postoperative complications. Nineteen major complications, including hematoma, deep infection, pleural effusion, progression of weakness, pulmonary edema, esophageal injury, myocardial infarction, pneumonia, reoperation, renal failure, sepsis, and death, occurred in 17 patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicted postoperative complications after spine surgery was 0.588 for E-PASS and 0.721 for POSSUM. For predicted major postoperative complications, the AUC increased to 0.619 for E-PASS and 0.842 for POSSUM. The AUC of the E-PASS system increased from 0.588 to 0.694 with the Modified E-PASS equation. The POSSUM system may be more useful than the E-PASS system for estimating postoperative surgical risk in patients undergoing spine surgery. The preoperative risk scores of E-PASS and POSSUM can be useful for predicting postoperative major complications. To enhance the predictability of the scoring systems, using of modified equations based on spine surgery-specific factors may help ensure surgical outcomes and patient safety. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Predictive models for mortality after ruptured aortic aneurysm repair do not predict futility and are not useful for clinical decision making.

PubMed

Thompson, Patrick C; Dalman, Ronald L; Harris, E John; Chandra, Venita; Lee, Jason T; Mell, Matthew W

2016-12-01

The clinical decision-making utility of scoring algorithms for predicting mortality after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (rAAAs) remains unknown. We sought to determine the clinical utility of the algorithms compared with our clinical decision making and outcomes for management of rAAA during a 10-year period. Patients admitted with a diagnosis rAAA at a large university hospital were identified from 2005 to 2014. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score, Hardman Index, Vancouver Score, Edinburgh Ruptured Aneurysm Score, University of Washington Ruptured Aneurysm Score, Vascular Study Group of New England rAAA Risk Score, and the Artificial Neural Network Score were analyzed for accuracy in predicting mortality. Among patients quantified into the highest-risk group (predicted mortality >80%-85%), we compared the predicted with the actual outcome to determine how well these scores predicted futility. The cohort comprised 64 patients. Of those, 24 (38%) underwent open repair, 36 (56%) underwent endovascular repair, and 4 (6%) received only comfort care. Overall mortality was 30% (open repair, 26%; endovascular repair, 24%; no repair, 100%). As assessed by the scoring systems, 5% to 35% of patients were categorized as high-mortality risk. Intersystem agreement was poor, with κ values ranging from 0.06 to 0.79. Actual mortality was lower than the predicted mortality (50%-70% vs 78%-100%) for all scoring systems, with each scoring system overestimating mortality by 10% to 50%. Mortality rates for patients not designated into the high-risk cohort were dramatically lower, ranging from 7% to 29%. Futility, defined as 100% mortality, was predicted in five of 63 patients with the Hardman Index and in two of 63 of the University of Washington score. Of these, surgery was not offered to one of five and one of two patients, respectively. If one of these two models were used to withhold operative intervention, the mortality of these patients would have been 100%. The actual mortality for these patients was 60% and 50%, respectively. Clinical algorithms for predicting mortality after rAAA were not useful for predicting futility. Most patients with rAAA were not classified in the highest-risk group by the clinical decision models. Among patients identified as highest risk, predicted mortality was overestimated compared with actual mortality. The data from this study support the limited value to surgeons of the currently published algorithms. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical score to predict the risk of bile leakage after liver resection.

PubMed

Kajiwara, Takahiro; Midorikawa, Yutaka; Yamazaki, Shintaro; Higaki, Tokio; Nakayama, Hisashi; Moriguchi, Masamichi; Tsuji, Shingo; Takayama, Tadatoshi

2016-05-06

In liver resection, bile leakage remains the most common cause of operative morbidity. In order to predict the risk of this complication on the basis of various factors, we developed a clinical score system to predict the potential risk of bile leakage after liver resection. We analyzed the postoperative course in 518 patients who underwent liver resection for malignancy to identify independent predictors of bile leakage, which was defined as "a drain fluid bilirubin concentration at least three times the serum bilirubin concentration on or after postoperative day 3," as proposed by the International Study Group of Liver Surgery. To confirm the robustness of the risk score system for bile leakage, we analyzed the independent series of 289 patients undergoing liver resection for malignancy. Among 81 (15.6 %) patients with bile leakage, 76 had grade A bile leakage, and five had grade C leakage and underwent reoperation. The median postoperative hospital stay was significantly longer in patients with bile leakage (median, 14 days; range, 8 to 34) than in those without bile leakage (11 days; 5 to 62; P = 0.001). There was no hepatic insufficiency or in-hospital death. The risk score model was based on the four independent predictors of postoperative bile leakage: non-anatomical resection (odds ratio, 3.16; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.72 to 6.07; P < 0.001), indocyanine green clearance rate (2.43; 1.32 to 7.76; P = 0.004), albumin level (2.29; 1.23 to 4.22; P = 0.01), and weight of resected specimen (1.97; 1.11 to 3.51; P = 0.02). When this risk score system was used to assign patients to low-, middle-, and high-risk groups, the frequency of bile leakage in the high-risk group was 2.64 (95 % CI, 1.12 to 6.41; P = 0.04) than that in the low-risk group. Among the independent series for validation, 4 (5.7 %), 16 (10.0 %), and 10 (16.6 %) patients in low-, middle, and high-risk groups were given a diagnosis of bile leakage after operation, respectively (P = 0.144). Our risk score model can be used to predict the risk of bile leakage after liver resection.

Improving results for carotid artery stenting by validation of the anatomic scoring system for carotid artery stenting with patient-specific simulated rehearsal.

PubMed

Willaert, Willem I M; Cheshire, Nicholas J; Aggarwal, Rajesh; Van Herzeele, Isabelle; Stansby, Gerard; Macdonald, Sumaira; Vermassen, Frank E

2012-12-01

Carotid artery stenting (CAS) is a technically demanding procedure with a risk of periprocedural stroke. A scoring system based on anatomic criteria has been developed to facilitate patient selection for CAS. Advancements in simulation science also enable case evaluation through patient-specific virtual reality (VR) rehearsal on an endovascular simulator. This study aimed to validate the anatomic scoring system for CAS using the patient-specific VR technology. Three patients were selected and graded according to the CAS scoring system (maximum score, 9): one easy (score, <4.9), one intermediate (score, 5.0-5.9), and one difficult (score, >7.0). The three cases were performed on the simulator in random order by 20 novice interventionalists pretrained in CAS. Technical performances were assessed using simulator-based metrics and expert-based ratings. The interventionalists took significantly longer to perform the difficult CAS case (median, 31.6 vs 19.7 vs 14.6 minutes; P<.0001) compared with the intermediate and easy cases; similarly, more fluoroscopy time (20.7 vs 12.1 vs 8.2 minutes; P<.0001), contrast volume (56.5 vs 51.5 vs 50.0 mL; P=.0060), and roadmaps (10 vs 9 vs 9; P=.0040) were used. The quality of performance declined significantly as the cases became more challenging (score, 24 vs 22 vs 19; P<.0001). The anatomic scoring system for CAS can predict the difficulty of a CAS procedure as measured by patient-specific VR. This scoring system, with or without the additional use of patient-specific VR, can guide novice interventionalists in selecting appropriate patients for CAS. This may reduce the perioperative stroke risk and enhance patient safety. Copyright © 2012 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Scoring Systems for Estimating the Risk of Anticoagulant-Associated Bleeding.

PubMed

Parks, Anna L; Fang, Margaret C

2017-07-01

Anticoagulant medications are frequently used to prevent and treat thromboembolic disease. However, the benefits of anticoagulants must be balanced with a careful assessment of the risk of bleeding complications that can ensue from their use. Several bleeding risk scores are available, including the Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and HEMORR 2 HAGES risk assessment tools, and can be used to help estimate patients' risk for bleeding on anticoagulants. These tools vary by their individual risk components and in how they define and weigh clinical factors. However, it is not yet clear how best to integrate bleeding risk tools into clinical practice. Current bleeding risk scores generally have modest predictive ability and limited ability to predict the most devastating complication of anticoagulation, intracranial hemorrhage. In clinical practice, bleeding risk tools should be paired with a formal determination of thrombosis risk, as their results may be most influential for patients at the lower end of thrombosis risk, as well as for highlighting potentially modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Use of bleeding risk scores may assist clinicians and patients in making informed and individualized anticoagulation decisions. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

A Risk Analysis Approach to Prioritizing Epidemics: Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Chughtai, Abrar Ahmad; MacIntyre, C. Raina

2017-01-01

Abstract The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria was developed. The framework includes measures of socioeconomics, health systems, geographical factors, cultural beliefs, and traditional practices. The three worst affected West African countries (Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia) had the highest risk scores. The scores were much lower in developed countries that experienced Ebola compared to West African countries. A more complex risk analysis framework using 18 measures was compared with a simpler one with 10 measures, and both predicted risk equally well. A simple risk scoring system can incorporate measures of hazard and impact that may otherwise be neglected in prioritizing outbreak response. This framework can be used by public health personnel as a tool to prioritize outbreak investigation and flag outbreaks with potentially catastrophic outcomes for urgent response. Such a tool could mitigate costly delays in epidemic response. PMID:28810081

Establishment and Validation of GV-SAPS II Scoring System for Non-Diabetic Critically Ill Patients.

PubMed

Liu, Wen-Yue; Lin, Shi-Gang; Zhu, Gui-Qi; Poucke, Sven Van; Braddock, Martin; Zhang, Zhongheng; Mao, Zhi; Shen, Fei-Xia; Zheng, Ming-Hua

2016-01-01

Recently, glucose variability (GV) has been reported as an independent risk factor for mortality in non-diabetic critically ill patients. However, GV is not incorporated in any severity scoring system for critically ill patients currently. The aim of this study was to establish and validate a modified Simplified Acute Physiology Score II scoring system (SAPS II), integrated with GV parameters and named GV-SAPS II, specifically for non-diabetic critically ill patients to predict short-term and long-term mortality. Training and validation cohorts were exacted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care database III version 1.3 (MIMIC-III v1.3). The GV-SAPS II score was constructed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and compared with the original SAPS II, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment Score (SOFA) and Elixhauser scoring systems using area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic (auROC) curve. 4,895 and 5,048 eligible individuals were included in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The GV-SAPS II score was established with four independent risk factors, including hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, standard deviation of blood glucose levels (GluSD), and SAPS II score. In the validation cohort, the auROC values of the new scoring system were 0.824 (95% CI: 0.813-0.834, P< 0.001) and 0.738 (95% CI: 0.725-0.750, P< 0.001), respectively for 30 days and 9 months, which were significantly higher than other models used in our study (all P < 0.001). Moreover, Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrated significantly worse outcomes in higher GV-SAPS II score groups both for 30-day and 9-month mortality endpoints (all P< 0.001). We established and validated a modified prognostic scoring system that integrated glucose variability for non-diabetic critically ill patients, named GV-SAPS II. It demonstrated a superior prognostic capability and may be an optimal scoring system for prognostic evaluation in this patient group.

Assessing fracture risk in people with MS: a service development study comparing three fracture risk scoring systems

PubMed Central

Dobson, Ruth; Leddy, Sara Geraldine; Gangadharan, Sunay; Giovannoni, Gavin

2013-01-01

Objectives Suboptimal bone health is increasingly recognised as an important cause of morbidity. Multiple sclerosis (MS) has been consistently associated with an increased risk of osteoporosis and fracture. Various fracture risk screening tools have been developed, two of which are in routine use and a further one is MS-specific. We set out to compare the results obtained by these in the MS clinic population. Design This was a service development study. The 10-year risk estimates of any fracture and hip fracture generated by each of the algorithms were compared. Setting The MS clinic at the Royal London Hospital. Participants 88 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MS. Outcome measures Mean 10-year overall fracture risk and hip fracture risk were calculated using each of the three fracture risk calculators. The number of interventions that would be required as a result of using each of these tools was also compared. Results Mean 10-year fracture risk was 4.7%, 2.3% and 7.6% using FRAX, QFracture and the MS-specific calculator, respectively (p<0.0001 for difference). The agreement between risk scoring tools was poor at all levels of fracture risk. Conclusions The agreement between these three fracture risk scoring tools is poor in the MS population. Further work is required to develop and validate an accurate fracture risk scoring system for use in MS. Trial registration This service development study was approved by the Clinical Effectiveness Department at Barts Health NHS Trust (project registration number 156/12). PMID:23482989

A Risk Analysis Approach to Prioritizing Epidemics: Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa as a Case Study.

PubMed

Ajisegiri, Whenayon Simeon; Chughtai, Abrar Ahmad; MacIntyre, C Raina

2018-03-01

The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria was developed. The framework includes measures of socioeconomics, health systems, geographical factors, cultural beliefs, and traditional practices. The three worst affected West African countries (Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia) had the highest risk scores. The scores were much lower in developed countries that experienced Ebola compared to West African countries. A more complex risk analysis framework using 18 measures was compared with a simpler one with 10 measures, and both predicted risk equally well. A simple risk scoring system can incorporate measures of hazard and impact that may otherwise be neglected in prioritizing outbreak response. This framework can be used by public health personnel as a tool to prioritize outbreak investigation and flag outbreaks with potentially catastrophic outcomes for urgent response. Such a tool could mitigate costly delays in epidemic response. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Novel risk score of contrast-induced nephropathy after percutaneous coronary intervention.

PubMed

Ji, Ling; Su, XiaoFeng; Qin, Wei; Mi, XuHua; Liu, Fei; Tang, XiaoHong; Li, Zi; Yang, LiChuan

2015-08-01

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is a major cause of acute kidney injury. In this study, we established a comprehensive risk score model to assess risk of CIN after PCI procedure, which could be easily used in a clinical environment. A total of 805 PCI patients, divided into analysis cohort (70%) and validation cohort (30%), were enrolled retrospectively in this study. Risk factors for CIN were identified using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression in the analysis cohort. Risk score model was developed based on multiple regression coefficients. Sensitivity and specificity of the new risk score system was validated in the validation cohort. Comparisons between the new risk score model and previous reported models were applied. The incidence of post-PCI CIN in the analysis cohort (n = 565) was 12%. Considerably high CIN incidence (50%) was observed in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Age >75, body mass index (BMI) >25, myoglobin level, cardiac function level, hypoalbuminaemia, history of chronic kidney disease (CKD), Intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) and peripheral vascular disease (PVD) were identified as independent risk factors of post-PCI CIN. A novel risk score model was established using multivariate regression coefficients, which showed highest sensitivity and specificity (0.917, 95%CI 0.877-0.957) compared with previous models. A new post-PCI CIN risk score model was developed based on a retrospective study of 805 patients. Application of this model might be helpful to predict CIN in patients undergoing PCI procedure. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

An assessment of the geographical risks of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks in Africa and Asia.

PubMed

O'Reilly, Kathleen M; Lamoureux, Christine; Molodecky, Natalie A; Lyons, Hil; Grassly, Nicholas C; Tallis, Graham

2017-05-26

The international spread of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks continues to threaten eradication of poliomyelitis and in 2014 a public health emergency of international concern was declared. Here we describe a risk scoring system that has been used to assess country-level risks of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks, to inform prioritisation of mass vaccination planning, and describe the change in risk from 2014 to 2016. The methods were also used to assess the risk of emergence of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Potential explanatory variables were tested against the reported outbreaks of wild poliomyelitis since 2003 using multivariable regression analysis. The regression analysis was translated to a risk score and used to classify countries as Low, Medium, Medium High and High risk, based on the predictive ability of the score. Indicators of population immunity, population displacement and diarrhoeal disease were associated with an increased risk of both wild and vaccine-derived outbreaks. High migration from countries with wild cases was associated with wild outbreaks. High birth numbers were associated with an increased risk of vaccine-derived outbreaks. Use of the scoring system is a transparent and rapid approach to assess country risk of wild and vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks. Since 2008 there has been a steep reduction in the number of wild poliomyelitis outbreaks and the reduction in countries classified as High and Medium High risk has reflected this. The risk of vaccine-derived poliomyelitis outbreaks has varied geographically. These findings highlight that many countries remain susceptible to poliomyelitis outbreaks and maintenance or improvement in routine immunisation is vital.

A sudden death risk score specifically for hypertension: based on 25 648 individual patient data from six randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Le, Hai-Ha; Subtil, Fabien; Cerou, Marc; Marchant, Ivanny; Al-Gobari, Muaamar; Fall, Mor; Mimouni, Yanis; Kassaï, Behrouz; Lindholm, Lars; Thijs, Lutgarde; Gueyffier, François

2017-11-01

To construct a sudden death risk score specifically for hypertension (HYSUD) patients with or without cardiovascular history. Data were collected from six randomized controlled trials of antihypertensive treatments with 8044 women and 17 604 men differing in age ranges and blood pressure eligibility criteria. In total, 345 sudden deaths (1.35%) occurred during a mean follow-up of 5.16 years. Risk factors of sudden death were examined using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusted on trials. The model was transformed to an integer system, with points added for each factor according to its association with sudden death risk. Antihypertensive treatment was not associated with a reduction of the sudden death risk and had no interaction with other factors, allowing model development on both treatment and placebo groups. A risk score of sudden death in 5 years was built with seven significant risk factors: age, sex, SBP, serum total cholesterol, cigarette smoking, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction. In terms of discrimination performance, HYSUD model was adequate with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 77.74% (confidence interval 95%, 74.13-81.35) for the derivation set, of 77.46% (74.09-80.83) for the validation set, and of 79.17% (75.94-82.40) for the whole population. Our work provides a simple risk-scoring system for sudden death prediction in hypertension, using individual data from six randomized controlled trials of antihypertensive treatments. HYSUD score could help assessing a hypertensive individual's risk of sudden death and optimizing preventive therapeutic strategies for these patients.

Predicting the occurrence of embolic events: an analysis of 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the Italian Study on Endocarditis (SEI).

PubMed

Rizzi, Marco; Ravasio, Veronica; Carobbio, Alessandra; Mattucci, Irene; Crapis, Massimo; Stellini, Roberto; Pasticci, Maria Bruna; Chinello, Pierangelo; Falcone, Marco; Grossi, Paolo; Barbaro, Francesco; Pan, Angelo; Viale, Pierluigi; Durante-Mangoni, Emanuele

2014-04-29

Embolic events are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. We analyzed the database of the prospective cohort study SEI in order to identify factors associated with the occurrence of embolic events and to develop a scoring system for the assessment of the risk of embolism. We retrospectively analyzed 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the multicenter study SEI. Predictors of embolism were identified. Risk factors identified at multivariate analysis as predictive of embolism in left-sided endocarditis, were used for the development of a risk score: 1 point was assigned to each risk factor (total risk score range: minimum 0 points; maximum 2 points). Three categories were defined by the score: low (0 points), intermediate (1 point), or high risk (2 points); the probability of embolic events per risk category was calculated for each day on treatment (day 0 through day 30). There were 499 episodes of infective endocarditis (34%) that were complicated by ≥ 1 embolic event. Most embolic events occurred early in the clinical course (first week of therapy: 15.5 episodes per 1000 patient days; second week: 3.7 episodes per 1000 patient days). In the total cohort, the factors associated with the occurrence of embolism at multivariate analysis were prosthetic valve localization (odds ratio, 1.84), right-sided endocarditis (odds ratio, 3.93), Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.23) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 1.86). In left-sided endocarditis, Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.1) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 2.1) were independently associated with embolic events; the 30-day cumulative incidence of embolism varied with risk score category (low risk, 12%; intermediate risk, 25%; high risk, 38%; p < 0.001). Staphylococcus aureus etiology and vegetation size are associated with an increased risk of embolism. In left-sided endocarditis, a simple scoring system, which combines etiology and vegetation size with time on antimicrobials, might contribute to a better assessment of the risk of embolism, and to a more individualized analysis of indications and contraindications for early surgery.

New equations for predicting postoperative risk in patients with hip fracture.

PubMed

Hirose, Jun; Ide, Junji; Irie, Hiroki; Kikukawa, Kenshi; Mizuta, Hiroshi

2009-12-01

Predicting the postoperative course of patients with hip fractures would be helpful for surgical planning and risk management. We therefore established equations to predict the morbidity and mortality rates in candidates for hip fracture surgery using the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) risk-scoring system. First we evaluated the correlation between the E-PASS scores and postoperative morbidity and mortality rates in all 722 patients surgically treated for hip fractures during the study period (Group A). Next we established equations to predict morbidity and mortality rates. We then applied these equations to all 633 patients with hip fractures treated at seven other hospitals (Group B) and compared the predicted and actual morbidity and mortality rates to assess the predictive ability of the E-PASS and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems. The ratio of actual to predicted morbidity and mortality rates was closer to 1.0 with the E-PASS than the POSSUM system. Our data suggest the E-PASS scoring system is useful for defining postoperative risk and its underlying algorithm accurately predicts morbidity and mortality rates in patients with hip fractures before surgery. This information then can be used to manage their condition and potentially improve treatment outcomes. Level II, prognostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Development of prediction models of stress and long-term disability among claimants to injury compensation systems: a cohort study

PubMed Central

Spittal, Matthew J; Grant, Genevieve; O’Donnell, Meaghan; McFarlane, Alexander C; Studdert, David M

2018-01-01

Objectives We sought to develop prognostic risk scores for compensation-related stress and long-term disability using markers collected within 3 months of a serious injury. Design Cohort study. Predictors were collected at baseline and at 3 months postinjury. Outcome data were collected at 72 months postinjury. Setting Hospitalised patients with serious injuries recruited from four major trauma hospitals in Australia. Participants 332 participants who made claims for compensation for their injuries to a transport accident scheme or a workers’ compensation scheme. Primary outcome measures 12-item WHO Disability Assessment Schedule and 6 items from the Claims Experience Survey. Results Our model for long-term disability had four predictors (unemployed at the time of injury, history of a psychiatric disorder at time of injury, post-traumatic stress disorder symptom severity at 3 months and disability at 3 months). This model had good discrimination (R2=0.37) and calibration. The disability risk score had a score range of 0–180, and at a threshold of 80 had sensitivity of 56% and specificity of 86%. Our model for compensation-related stress had five predictors (intensive care unit admission, discharged to home, number of traumatic events prior to injury, depression at 3 months and not working at 3 months). This model also had good discrimination (area under the curve=0.83) and calibration. The compensation-related stress risk score had score range of 0–220 and at a threshold of 100 had sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 75%. By combining these two scoring systems, we were able to identify the subgroup of claimants at highest risk of experiencing both outcomes. Conclusions The ability to identify at an early stage claimants at high risk of compensation-related stress and poor recovery is potentially valuable for claimants and the compensation agencies that serve them. The scoring systems we developed could be incorporated into the claims-handling processes to guide prevention-oriented interventions. PMID:29705763

Immunoglobulin M monoclonal gammopathies of undetermined significance and indolent Waldenstrom's macroglobulinemia recognize the same determinants of evolution into symptomatic lymphoid disorders: proposal for a common prognostic scoring system.

PubMed

Baldini, Luca; Goldaniga, Maria; Guffanti, Andrea; Broglia, Chiara; Cortelazzo, Sergio; Rossi, Andrea; Morra, Enrica; Colombi, Mariangela; Callea, Vincenzo; Pogliani, Enrico; Ilariucci, Fiorella; Luminari, Stefano; Morel, Pierre; Merlini, Giampaolo; Gobbi, Paolo

2005-07-20

To evaluate the clinicohematologic variables at diagnosis that are prognostically related to neoplastic progression in patients with immunoglobulin M (IgM) monoclonal gammopathies of undetermined significance (MGUS), and indolent Waldenström's macroglobulinemia (IWM), and propose a scoring system to identify subsets of patients at different risk. We evaluated 217 patients with IgM MGUS and 201 with IWM (male-female ratio, 131:86 and 117:84; mean age, 63.7 and 63.6 years, respectively) diagnosed on the basis of serum monoclonal component (MC) levels and bone marrow lymphoplasmacytic infiltration degree. The variables selected by univariate analyses were multivariately investigated; on the basis of their individual relative hazards, a scoring system was devised to identify subsets of patients at different risk of evolution. After a median follow-up of 56.1 and 60.2 months, 15 of 217 MGUS and 45 of 201 IWM patients, respectively, required chemotherapy for symptomatic WM (13 and 36), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (2 and 6) and amyloidosis (0 and 3). The median time to evolution (TTE) was not reached for MGUS and was 141.5 months for IWM. The variables adversely related to evolution were qualitatively the same in both groups: MC levels, Hb concentrations and sex. A scoring system based on these parameters identified three risk groups with highly significant differences in TTE in both groups (P < .0001). MGUS and IWM identify disease entities with different propensities for symptomatic neoplastic evolution. As both have the same prognostic determinants of progression, we propose a practical scoring system that, identifying different risks of malignant evolution, may allow an individualized clinical approach.

Development and validation of a surgical-pathologic staging and scoring system for cervical cancer

PubMed Central

Zhou, Hang; Tang, Fangxu; Jia, Yao; Hu, Ting; Sun, Haiying; Yang, Ru; Chen, Yile; Cheng, Xiaodong; Lv, Weiguo; Wu, Li; Zhou, Jin; Wang, Shaoshuai; Huang, Kecheng; Wang, Lin; Yao, Yuan; Yang, Qifeng; Yang, Xingsheng; Zhang, Qinghua; Han, Xiaobing; Lin, Zhongqiu; Xing, Hui; Qu, Pengpeng; Cai, Hongbing; Song, Xiaojie; Tian, Xiaoyu; Shen, Jian; Xi, Ling; Li, Kezhen; Deng, Dongrui; Wang, Hui; Wang, Changyu; Wu, Mingfu; Zhu, Tao; Chen, Gang; Gao, Qinglei; Wang, Shixuan; Hu, Junbo; Kong, Beihua; Xie, Xing; Ma, Ding

2016-01-01

Background Most cervical cancer patients worldwide receive surgical treatments, and yet the current International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system do not consider surgical-pathologic data. We propose a more comprehensive and prognostically valuable surgical-pathologic staging and scoring system (SPSs). Methods Records from 4,220 eligible cervical cancer cases (Cohort 1) were screened for surgical-pathologic risk factors. We constructed a surgical-pathologic staging and SPSs, which was subsequently validated in a prospective study of 1,104 cervical cancer patients (Cohort 2). Results In Cohort 1, seven independent risk factors were associated with patient outcome: lymph node metastasis (LNM), parametrial involvement, histological type, grade, tumor size, stromal invasion, and lymph-vascular space invasion (LVSI). The FIGO staging system was revised and expanded into a surgical-pathologic staging system by including additional criteria of LNM, stromal invasion, and LVSI. LNM was subdivided into three categories based on number and location of metastases. Inclusion of all seven prognostic risk factors improves practical applicability. Patients were stratified into three SPSs risk categories: zero-, low-, and high-score with scores of 0, 1 to 3, and ≥4 (P=1.08E-45; P=6.15E-55). In Cohort 2, 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) outcomes decreased with increased SPSs scores (P=9.04E-15; P=3.23E-16), validating the approach. Surgical-pathologic staging and SPSs show greater homogeneity and discriminatory utility than FIGO staging. Conclusions Surgical-pathologic staging and SPSs improve characterization of tumor severity and disease invasion, which may more accurately predict outcome and guide postoperative therapy. PMID:27014971

Expert opinion as 'validation' of risk assessment applied to calf welfare.

PubMed

Bracke, Marc B M; Edwards, Sandra A; Engel, Bas; Buist, Willem G; Algers, Bo

2008-07-14

Recently, a Risk Assessment methodology was applied to animal welfare issues in a report of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) on intensively housed calves. Because this is a new and potentially influential approach to derive conclusions on animal welfare issues, a so-called semantic-modelling type 'validation' study was conducted by asking expert scientists, who had been involved or quoted in the report, to give welfare scores for housing systems and for welfare hazards. Kendall's coefficient of concordance among experts (n = 24) was highly significant (P < 0.001), but low (0.29 and 0.18 for housing systems and hazards respectively). Overall correlations with EFSA scores were significant only for experts with a veterinary or mixed (veterinary and applied ethological) background. Significant differences in welfare scores were found between housing systems, between hazards, and between experts with different backgrounds. For example, veterinarians gave higher overall welfare scores for housing systems than ethologists did, probably reflecting a difference in their perception of animal welfare. Systems with the lowest scores were veal calves kept individually in so-called "baby boxes" (veal crates) or in small groups, and feedlots. A suckler herd on pasture was rated as the best for calf welfare. The main hazards were related to underfeeding, inadequate colostrum intake, poor stockperson education, insufficient space, inadequate roughage, iron deficiency, inadequate ventilation, poor floor conditions and no bedding. Points for improvement of the Risk Assessment applied to animal welfare include linking information, reporting uncertainty and transparency about underlying values. The study provides novel information on expert opinion in relation to calf welfare and shows that Risk Assessment applied to animal welfare can benefit from a semantic modelling approach.

Concordance of Motion Sensor and Clinician-Rated Fall Risk Scores in Older Adults.

PubMed

Elledge, Julie

2017-12-01

As the older adult population in the United States continues to grow, developing reliable, valid, and practical methods for identifying fall risk is a high priority. Falls are prevalent in older adults and contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and rising health costs. Identifying at-risk older adults and intervening in a timely manner can reduce falls. Conventional fall risk assessment tools require a health professional trained in the use of each tool for administration and interpretation. Motion sensor technology, which uses three-dimensional cameras to measure patient movements, is promising for assessing older adults' fall risk because it could eliminate or reduce the need for provider oversight. The purpose of this study was to assess the concordance of fall risk scores as measured by a motion sensor device, the OmniVR Virtual Rehabilitation System, with clinician-rated fall risk scores in older adult outpatients undergoing physical rehabilitation. Three standardized fall risk assessments were administered by the OmniVR and by a clinician. Validity of the OmniVR was assessed by measuring the concordance between the two assessment methods. Stability of the OmniVR fall risk ratings was assessed by measuring test-retest reliability. The OmniVR scores showed high concordance with the clinician-rated scores and high stability over time, demonstrating comparability with provider measurements.

Prediction for Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance by Using Weighted Genetic Risk Score Identified From Genome-Wide Association Study in Kawasaki Disease.

PubMed

Kuo, Ho-Chang; Wong, Henry Sung-Ching; Chang, Wei-Pin; Chen, Ben-Kuen; Wu, Mei-Shin; Yang, Kuender D; Hsieh, Kai-Sheng; Hsu, Yu-Wen; Liu, Shih-Feng; Liu, Xiao; Chang, Wei-Chiao

2017-10-01

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is the treatment of choice in Kawasaki disease (KD). IVIG is used to prevent cardiovascular complications related to KD. However, a proportion of KD patients have persistent fever after IVIG treatment and are defined as IVIG resistant. To develop a risk scoring system based on genetic markers to predict IVIG responsiveness in KD patients, a total of 150 KD patients (126 IVIG responders and 24 IVIG nonresponders) were recruited for this study. A genome-wide association analysis was performed to compare the 2 groups and identified risk alleles for IVIG resistance. A weighted genetic risk score was calculated by the natural log of the odds ratio multiplied by the number of risk alleles. Eleven single-nucleotide polymorphisms were identified by genome-wide association study. The KD patients were categorized into 3 groups based on their calculated weighted genetic risk score. Results indicated a significant association between weighted genetic risk score (groups 3 and 4 versus group 1) and the response to IVIG (Fisher's exact P value 4.518×10 - 03 and 8.224×10 - 10 , respectively). This is the first weighted genetic risk score study based on a genome-wide association study in KD. The predictive model integrated the additive effects of all 11 single-nucleotide polymorphisms to provide a prediction of the responsiveness to IVIG. © 2017 The Authors.

A novel scoring system for predicting adherent placenta in women with placenta previa.

PubMed

Tanimura, Kenji; Morizane, Mayumi; Deguchi, Masashi; Ebina, Yasuhiko; Tanaka, Utaru; Ueno, Yoshiko; Kitajima, Kazuhiro; Maeda, Tetsuo; Sugimura, Kazuro; Yamada, Hideto

2018-04-01

Placenta previa (PP) is one of the most significant risk factors for adherent placenta (AP). The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of a novel scoring system for predicting AP in pregnant women with PP. This prospective cohort study enrolled 175 women with PP. The placenta previa with adherent placenta score (PPAP score) is composed of 2 categories: (1) past history of cesarean section (CS), surgical abortion, and/or uterine surgery; and (2) ultrasonography and magnetic resonance imaging findings. Each category is graded as 0, 1, 2, or 4 points, yielding a total score between 0 and 24. When women with PP had PPAP score ≥8, they were considered to be at a high risk for AP and received placement of preoperative internal iliac artery occlusion balloon catheters. If they were found to have AP during CS, they underwent hysterectomy or placenta removal using advanced bipolar with balloon catheter occlusion. The predictive accuracy of PPAP score was evaluated. In total, 23 of the 175 women with PP were diagnosed as having AP, histopathologically or clinically. Twenty-one of 24 women with PPAP score ≥8 had AP, whereas two of 151 women with PPAP score <8 had AP. The scoring system yielded 91.3% sensitivity, 98.0% specificity, 87.5% positive predictive value, and 98.7% negative predictive value for predicting AP in women with PP. This prospective study demonstrated that PPAP scoring system may be useful for predicting AP in women with PP. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A risk scoring system for prediction of haemorrhagic stroke.

PubMed

Zodpey, S P; Tiwari, R R

2005-01-01

The present pair-matched case control study was carried out at Government Medical College Hospital, Nagpur, India, a tertiary care hospital with the objective to devise and validate a risk scoring system for prediction of hemorrhagic stroke. The study consisted of 166 hospitalized CT scan proved cases of hemorrhagic stroke (ICD 9, 431-432), and a age and sex matched control per case. The controls were selected from patients who attended the study hospital for conditions other than stroke. On conditional multiple logistic regression five risk factors- hypertension (OR = 1.9. 95% Cl = 1.5-2.5). raised scrum total cholesterol (OR = 2.3, 95% Cl = 1.1-4.9). use of anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents (OR = 3.4, 95% Cl =1.1-10.4). past history of transient ischaemic attack (OR = 8.4, 95% Cl = 2.1- 33.6) and alcohol intake (OR = 2.1, 95% Cl = 1.3-3.6) were significant. These factors were ascribed statistical weights (based on regression coefficients) of 6, 8, 12, 21 and 8 respectively. The nonsignificant factors (diabetes mellitus, physical inactivity, obesity, smoking, type A personality, history of claudication, family history of stroke, history of cardiac diseases and oral contraceptive use in females) were not included in the development of scoring system. ROC curve suggested a total score of 21 to be the best cut-off for predicting haemorrhag stroke. At this cut-off the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity and Cohen's kappa were 0.74, 0.74, 0.74 and 0.48 respectively. The overall predictive accuracy of this additive risk scoring system (area under ROC curve by Wilcoxon statistic) was 0.79 (95% Cl = 0.73-0.84). Thus to conclude, if substantiated by further validation, this scorincy system can be used to predict haemorrhagic stroke, thereby helping to devise effective risk factor intervention strategy.

Integrated CLL Scoring System, a New and Simple Index to Predict Time to Treatment and Overall Survival in Patients With Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia.

PubMed

Visentin, Andrea; Facco, Monica; Frezzato, Federica; Castelli, Monica; Trimarco, Valentina; Martini, Veronica; Gattazzo, Cristina; Severin, Filippo; Chiodin, Giorgia; Martines, Annalisa; Bonaldi, Laura; Gianesello, Ilaria; Pagnin, Elisa; Boscaro, Elisa; Piazza, Francesco; Zambello, Renato; Semenzato, Gianpietro; Trentin, Livio

2015-10-01

Several prognostic factors have been identified to predict the outcome of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), but only a few studies analyzed more markers together. Taking advantage of a population of 608 patients, we identified the strongest prognostic markers of survival and, subsequently, in a cohort of 212 patients we integrated data of cytogenetic lesions, IGHV mutational status, and CD38 expression in a new and easy scoring system we called the integrated CLL scoring system (ICSS). ICSS defines 3 groups of risk: (1) low risk (patients with 13q(-) or normal fluorescence in-situ hybridization analysis results, mutated IGHV, and CD38) (2) high risk (all 11q(-) or 17p(-) patients and/or all unmutated IGHV and CD38(+) patients); and (3) intermediate risk (all remaining patients). Using only these 3 already available prognostic factors, we were able to properly redefine patients and better predict the clinical course of the disease. ICSS could become a useful tool for CLL patients' management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive value of the APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA and GCS scoring systems in patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis.

PubMed

Pietraszek-Grzywaczewska, Iwona; Bernas, Szymon; Łojko, Piotr; Piechota, Anna; Piechota, Mariusz

2016-01-01

Scoring systems in critical care patients are essential for predicting of the patient outcome and evaluating the therapy. In this study, we determined the value of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scoring systems in the prediction of mortality in adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with severe purulent bacterial meningitis. We retrospectively analysed data from 98 adult patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis who were admitted to the single ICU between March 2006 and September 2015. Univariate logistic regression identified the following risk factors of death in patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis: APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, and GCS scores, and the lengths of ICU stay and hospital stay. The independent risk factors of patient death in multivariate analysis were the SAPS II score, the length of ICU stay and the length of hospital stay. In the prediction of mortality according to the area under the curve, the SAPS II score had the highest accuracy followed by the APACHE II, GCS and SOFA scores. For the prediction of mortality in a patient with severe purulent bacterial meningitis, SAPS II had the highest accuracy.

Can the FIGO 2000 scoring system for gestational trophoblastic neoplasia be simplified? A new retrospective analysis from a nationwide dataset.

PubMed

Eysbouts, Y K; Ottevanger, P B; Massuger, L F A G; IntHout, J; Short, D; Harvey, R; Kaur, B; Sebire, N J; Sarwar, N; Sweep, F C G J; Seckl, M J

2017-08-01

Worldwide introduction of the International Fedaration of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) 2000 scoring system has provided an effective means to stratify patients with gestational trophoblastic neoplasia to single- or multi-agent chemotherapy. However, the system is quite elaborate with an extensive set of risk factors. In this study, we re-evaluate all prognostic risk factors involved in the FIGO 2000 scoring system and examine if simplification is feasible. Between January 2003 and December 2012, 813 patients diagnosed with gestational trophoblastic neoplasia were identified at the Trophoblastic Disease Centre in London and scored using the FIGO 2000. Multivariable analysis and stepwise logistic regression were carried out to evaluate whether the FIGO 2000 scoring system could be simplified. Of the eight FIGO risk factors only pre-treatment serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels exceeding 10 000 IU/l (OR = 5.0; 95% CI 2.5-10.4) and 100 000 IU/l (OR = 14.3; 95% CI 4.7-44.1), interval exceeding 7 months since antecedent pregnancy (OR = 4.1; 95% CI 1.0-16.2), and tumor size of over 5 cm (OR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.3-3.6) were identified as independently predictive for single-agent resistance. In addition, increased risk was apparent for antecedent term pregnancy (OR = 3.4; 95% CI 0.9-12.7) and the presence of five or more metastases (OR = 3.5; 95% CI 0.4-30.4), but patient numbers in these categories were relatively small. Stepwise logistic regression identified a simplified risk scoring model comprising age, pretreatment serum hCG, number of metastases, antecedent pregnancy, and interval but omitting tumor size, previous failed chemotherapy, and site of metastases. With this model only 1 out 725 patients was classified different from the FIGO 2000 system. Our simplified alternative using only five of the FIGO prognostic factors appears to be an accurate system for discriminating patients requiring single as opposed to multi-agent chemotherapy. Further work is urgently needed to validate these findings. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Individualizing Risk of Multidrug-Resistant Pathogens in Community-Onset Pneumonia

PubMed Central

Falcone, Marco; Russo, Alessandro; Giannella, Maddalena; Cangemi, Roberto; Scarpellini, Maria Gabriella; Bertazzoni, Giuliano; Alarcón, José Martínez; Taliani, Gloria; Palange, Paolo; Farcomeni, Alessio; Vestri, Annarita; Bouza, Emilio; Violi, Francesco; Venditti, Mario

2015-01-01

Introduction The diffusion of multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria has created the need to identify risk factors for acquiring resistant pathogens in patients living in the community. Objective To analyze clinical features of patients with community-onset pneumonia due to MDR pathogens, to evaluate performance of existing scoring tools and to develop a bedside risk score for an early identification of these patients in the Emergency Department. Patients and Methods This was an open, observational, prospective study of consecutive patients with pneumonia, coming from the community, from January 2011 to January 2013. The new score was validated on an external cohort of 929 patients with pneumonia admitted in internal medicine departments participating at a multicenter prospective study in Spain. Results A total of 900 patients were included in the study. The final logistic regression model consisted of four variables: 1) one risk factor for HCAP, 2) bilateral pulmonary infiltration, 3) the presence of pleural effusion, and 4) the severity of respiratory impairment calculated by use of PaO2/FiO2 ratio. A new risk score, the ARUC score, was developed; compared to Aliberti, Shorr, and Shindo scores, this point score system has a good discrimination performance (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.82) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow, χ2 = 7.64; p = 0.469). The new score outperformed HCAP definition in predicting etiology due to MDR organism. The performance of this bedside score was confirmed in the validation cohort (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.60-0.77). Conclusion Physicians working in ED should adopt simple risk scores, like ARUC score, to select the most appropriate antibiotic regimens. This individualized approach may help clinicians to identify those patients who need an empirical broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy. PMID:25860142

Cardiovascular disease risk profiles among 'healthy' siblings of patients with early-onset cardiovascular disease: application of the new SCORE system.

PubMed

Horan, Paul G; Kamaruddin, Muhammad S; Moore, Michael J; McCarty, David; Spence, Mark S; McGlinchey, Paul G; Murphy, Gillian; Jardine, Tracy C L; Patterson, Chris C; McKeown, Pascal P

2007-08-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurs more frequently in individuals with a family history of premature CVD. Within families the demographics of CVD are poorly described. We examined the risk estimation based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) system and the Joint British Guidelines (JBG) for older unaffected siblings of patients with premature CVD (onset

The Adam Walsh Act: An Examination of Sex Offender Risk Classification Systems.

PubMed

Zgoba, Kristen M; Miner, Michael; Levenson, Jill; Knight, Raymond; Letourneau, Elizabeth; Thornton, David

2016-12-01

This study was designed to compare the Adam Walsh Act (AWA) classification tiers with actuarial risk assessment instruments and existing state classification schemes in their respective abilities to identify sex offenders at high risk to re-offend. Data from 1,789 adult sex offenders released from prison in four states were collected (Minnesota, New Jersey, Florida, and South Carolina). On average, the sexual recidivism rate was approximately 5% at 5 years and 10% at 10 years. AWA Tier 2 offenders had higher Static-99R scores and higher recidivism rates than Tier 3 offenders, and in Florida, these inverse correlations were statistically significant. Actuarial measures and existing state tier systems, in contrast, did a better job of identifying high-risk offenders and recidivists. As well, we examined the distribution of risk assessment scores within and across tier categories, finding that a majority of sex offenders fall into AWA Tier 3, but more than half score low or moderately low on the Static-99R. The results indicate that the AWA sex offender classification scheme is a poor indicator of relative risk and is likely to result in a system that is less effective in protecting the public than those currently implemented in the states studied. © The Author(s) 2015.

The PRONE score: an algorithm for predicting doctors’ risks of formal patient complaints using routinely collected administrative data

PubMed Central

Spittal, Matthew J; Bismark, Marie M; Studdert, David M

2015-01-01

Background Medicolegal agencies—such as malpractice insurers, medical boards and complaints bodies—are mostly passive regulators; they react to episodes of substandard care, rather than intervening to prevent them. At least part of the explanation for this reactive role lies in the widely recognised difficulty of making robust predictions about medicolegal risk at the individual clinician level. We aimed to develop a simple, reliable scoring system for predicting Australian doctors’ risks of becoming the subject of repeated patient complaints. Methods Using routinely collected administrative data, we constructed a national sample of 13 849 formal complaints against 8424 doctors. The complaints were lodged by patients with state health service commissions in Australia over a 12-year period. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of subsequent complaints, defined as another complaint occurring within 2 years of an index complaint. Model estimates were then used to derive a simple predictive algorithm, designed for application at the doctor level. Results The PRONE (Predicted Risk Of New Event) score is a 22-point scoring system that indicates a doctor's future complaint risk based on four variables: a doctor's specialty and sex, the number of previous complaints and the time since the last complaint. The PRONE score performed well in predicting subsequent complaints, exhibiting strong validity and reliability and reasonable goodness of fit (c-statistic=0.70). Conclusions The PRONE score appears to be a valid method for assessing individual doctors’ risks of attracting recurrent complaints. Regulators could harness such information to target quality improvement interventions, and prevent substandard care and patient dissatisfaction. The approach we describe should be replicable in other agencies that handle large numbers of patient complaints or malpractice claims. PMID:25855664

Predicting Risk-Taking Behavior from Prefrontal Resting-State Activity and Personality

PubMed Central

Studer, Bettina; Pedroni, Andreas; Rieskamp, Jörg

2013-01-01

Risk-taking is subject to considerable individual differences. In the current study, we tested whether resting-state activity in the prefrontal cortex and trait sensitivity to reward and punishment can help predict risk-taking behavior. Prefrontal activity at rest was assessed in seventy healthy volunteers using electroencephalography, and compared to their choice behavior on an economic risk-taking task. The Behavioral Inhibition System/Behavioral Activation System scale was used to measure participants’ trait sensitivity to reward and punishment. Our results confirmed both prefrontal resting-state activity and personality traits as sources of individual differences in risk-taking behavior. Right-left asymmetry in prefrontal activity and scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System scale, reflecting trait sensitivity to punishment, were correlated with the level of risk-taking on the task. We further discovered that scores on the Behavioral Inhibition System scale modulated the relationship between asymmetry in prefrontal resting-state activity and risk-taking. The results of this study demonstrate that heterogeneity in risk-taking behavior can be traced back to differences in the basic physiology of decision-makers’ brains, and suggest that baseline prefrontal activity and personality traits might interplay in guiding risk-taking behavior. PMID:24116176

Case report: a balance training program using the Nintendo Wii Fit to reduce fall risk in an older adult with bilateral peripheral neuropathy.

PubMed

Hakim, Renée Marie; Salvo, Charles J; Balent, Anthony; Keyasko, Michael; McGlynn, Deidre

2015-02-01

A recent systematic review supported the use of strength and balance training for older adults at risk for falls, and provided preliminary evidence for those with peripheral neuropathy (PN). However, the role of gaming systems in fall risk reduction was not explored. The purpose of this case report was to describe the use of the Nintendo® Wii™ Fit gaming system to train standing balance in a community-dwelling older adult with PN and a history of recurrent near falls. A 76-year-old patient with bilateral PN participated in 1 h of Nintendo® Wii™ Fit balance training, two times a week for 6 weeks. Examination was conducted using a Computerized Dynamic Posturography system (i.e. Sensory Organization Test (SOT), Limits of Stability (LOS), Adaptation Test (ADT) and Motor Control Test (MCT) and clinical testing with the Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Timed Up and Go (TUG), Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale and 30-s Chair Stand. Following training, sensory integration scores on the SOT were unchanged. Maximum excursion abilities improved by a range of 37-86% on the LOS test. MCT scores improved for amplitude with forward translations and ADT scores improved for downward platform rotations. Clinical scores improved on the BBS (28/56-34/56), ABC (57.5-70.6%) and TUG (14.9-10.9 s) which indicated reduced fall risk. Balance training with a gaming system showed promise as a feasible, objective and enjoyable method to improve physical performance and reduce fall risk in an individual with PN.

WHipple-ABACUS, a simple, validated risk score for 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy developed using the ACS-NSQIP database.

PubMed

Gleeson, Elizabeth M; Shaikh, Mohammad F; Shewokis, Patricia A; Clarke, John R; Meyers, William C; Pitt, Henry A; Bowne, Wilbur B

2016-11-01

Pancreaticoduodenectomy needs simple, validated risk models to better identify 30-day mortality. The goal of this study is to develop a simple risk score to predict 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy. We reviewed cases of pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2005-2012 in the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program databases. Logistic regression was used to identify preoperative risk factors for morbidity and mortality from a development cohort. Scores were created using weighted beta coefficients, and predictive accuracy was assessed on the validation cohort using receiver operator characteristic curves and measuring area under the curve. The 30-day mortality rate was 2.7% for patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (n = 14,993). We identified 8 independent risk factors. The score created from weighted beta coefficients had an area under the curve of 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.77) on the validation cohort. Using the score WHipple-ABACUS (hypertension With medication + History of cardiac surgery + Age >62 + 2 × Bleeding disorder + Albumin <3.5 g/dL + 2 × disseminated Cancer + 2 × Use of steroids + 2 × Systemic inflammatory response syndrome), mortality rates increase with increasing score (P < .001). While other risk scores exist for 30-day mortality after pancreaticoduodenectomy, we present a simple, validated score developed using exclusively preoperative predictors surgeons could use to identify patients at risk for this procedure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing the Predictive Validity of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model.

PubMed

Jung, Hyesil; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

2018-03-01

Cumulative data on patient fall risk have been compiled in electronic medical records systems, and it is possible to test the validity of fall-risk assessment tools using these data between the times of admission and occurrence of a fall. The Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scores assessed during three time points of hospital stays were extracted and used for testing the predictive validity: (a) upon admission, (b) when the maximum fall-risk score from admission to falling or discharge, and (c) immediately before falling or discharge. Predictive validity was examined using seven predictive indicators. In addition, logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that significantly affect the occurrence of a fall. Among the different time points, the maximum fall-risk score assessed between admission and falling or discharge showed the best predictive performance. Confusion or disorientation and having a poor ability to rise from a sitting position were significant risk factors for a fall.

The cardiovascular robustness hypothesis: Unmasking young adults' hidden risk for premature cardiovascular death.

PubMed

Kraushaar, Lutz E; Dressel, Alexander

2018-03-01

An undetected high risk for premature death of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among individuals with low-to-moderate risk factor levels is an acknowledged obstacle to CVD prevention. In this paper, we present the hypothesis that the vasculature's robustness against risk factor load will complement conventional risk factor models as a novel stratifier of risk. Figuratively speaking, mortality risk prediction without robustness scoring is akin to predicting the breaking risk of a lake's ice sheet considering load only while disregarding the sheet's bearing strength. Taking the cue from systems biology, which defines robustness as the ability to maintain function against internal and external challenges, we develop a robustness score from the physical parameters that comprehensively quantitate cardiovascular function. We derive the functional parameters using a recently introduced novel system, VascAssist 2 (iSYMED GmbH, Butzbach, Germany). VascAssist 2 (VA) applies the electronic-hydraulic analogy to a digital model of the arterial tree, replicating non-invasively acquired pule pressure waves by modulating the electronic equivalents of the physical parameters that describe in vivo arterial hemodynamics. As the latter is also subject to aging-associated degeneration which (a) progresses at inter-individually different rates, and which (b) affects the biomarker-mortality association, we express the robustness score as a correction factor to calendar age (CA), the dominant risk factor in all CVD risk factor models. We then propose a method for the validation of the score against known time-to-event data in reference populations. Our conceptualization of robustness implies that risk factor-challenged individuals with low robustness scores will face preferential elimination from the population resulting in a significant robustness-CA correlation in this strata absent in the unchallenged stratum. Hence, we also present an outline of a cross-sectional study design suitable to test this hypothesis. We finally discuss the objections that may validly be raised against our robustness hypothesis, and how available evidence encourages us to refute these objections. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of the 21-gene recurrence score assay in the context of multifactorial decision making to guide chemotherapy for early-stage breast cancer.

PubMed

Reed, Shelby D; Dinan, Michaela A; Schulman, Kevin A; Lyman, Gary H

2013-03-01

New evidence is available regarding the utility of the 21-gene recurrence score assay in guiding chemotherapy use for node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. We applied this evidence in a decision-analytic model to re-evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the assay. We cross-classified patients by clinicopathologic characteristics from the Adjuvant! risk index and by recurrence score risk group. For non-recurrence score-guided treatment, we assumed patients receiving hormonal therapy alone had low-risk characteristics and patients receiving chemotherapy and hormonal therapy had higher-risk characteristics. For recurrence score-guided treatment, we assigned chemotherapy probabilities conditional on recurrence score risk group and clinicopathologic characteristics. An estimated 40.4% of patients in the recurrence score-guided strategy and 47.3% in the non-recurrence score-guided strategy were expected to receive chemotherapy. The incremental gain in quality-adjusted life-years was 0.16 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.28) with the recurrence score-guided strategy. Lifetime medical costs to the health system were $2,692 ($1,546-$3,821) higher with the recurrence score-guided strategy, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $16,677/quality-adjusted life-year ($7,613-$37,219). From a societal perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness was $10,788/quality-adjusted life-year ($6,840-$30,265). The findings provide supportive evidence for the economic value of the 21-gene recurrence score assay in node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer.

Calcaneal Scoring as an Adjunct to Modified Oxford Hip Scores: Prediction of Contralateral Slipped Capital Femoral Epiphysis.

PubMed

Nicholson, Allen D; Huez, Coridon M; Sanders, James O; Liu, Raymond W; Cooperman, Daniel R

2016-03-01

In 2 recent studies, modified Oxford hip scores of 16 through 18 have been shown to predict an extremely high risk of contralateral slipping in unilateral slipped capital femoral epiphysis (SCFE). However, the modified Oxford system is not widely used. This may be due, in part, to the complexity of the scoring system, difficulty in viewing all 5 radiographic features on a single x-ray and phenotypic variation in the features. Ossification of the calcaneal apophysis provides an osteologic marker of skeletal maturation in relation to peak height velocity and has been described previously. We examine the value of the calcaneal apophyseal ossification sequence for predicting modified Oxford hip scores. We examined 279 pelvis and matching foot x-rays that were taken at the same session from 94 healthy children aged 3 to 18 years. A fellowship-trained pediatric orthopaedist determined the modified Oxford hip score for each hip radiograph. The calcaneal x-rays had been previously graded. Modified Oxford hip scores were compared with calcaneal scores for each set of matched hip and calcaneal x-rays. Stage 0 to 2 calcanei had 94% of corresponding hip radiographs rated as modified Oxford scores of 16 to 18. Stage 3 calcanei had 54% rated as 16 to 18 and 31% rated as scores 19 to 21. Stage 4 calcanei had 31% rated as scores 19 to 21, and 68% rated as scores 22 to 26. Stage 5 calcanei had 100% rated as 22 to 26. Using data from Popejoy and colleagues' study, the weighted risk of contralateral SCFE was 94% for calcaneal stage 0, 86.5% for calcaneal stage 1, 90.3% for calcaneal stage 2, 55.8% for calcaneal stage 3, 6.1% for calcaneal stage 4, and 0 for calcaneal stage 5. Calcaneal stages 0 to 3 correspond entirely to modified Oxford scores indicating elevated risk of contralateral SCFE. The calcaneal scoring system has potential for adjunctive use with the modified Oxford score for prediction of contralateral SCFE.

Coronary artery disease risk assessment from unstructured electronic health records using text mining.

PubMed

Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Chang, Nai-Wen; Dai, Hong-Jie

2015-12-01

Coronary artery disease (CAD) often leads to myocardial infarction, which may be fatal. Risk factors can be used to predict CAD, which may subsequently lead to prevention or early intervention. Patient data such as co-morbidities, medication history, social history and family history are required to determine the risk factors for a disease. However, risk factor data are usually embedded in unstructured clinical narratives if the data is not collected specifically for risk assessment purposes. Clinical text mining can be used to extract data related to risk factors from unstructured clinical notes. This study presents methods to extract Framingham risk factors from unstructured electronic health records using clinical text mining and to calculate 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores in a cohort of diabetic patients. We developed a rule-based system to extract risk factors: age, gender, total cholesterol, HDL-C, blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. The results showed that the output from the text mining system was reliable, but there was a significant amount of missing data to calculate the Framingham risk score. A systematic approach for understanding missing data was followed by implementation of imputation strategies. An analysis of the 10-year Framingham risk scores for coronary artery disease in this cohort has shown that the majority of the diabetic patients are at moderate risk of CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combination of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, early lactate area, and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide levels as a predictor of mortality in geriatric patients with septic shock.

PubMed

Wang, Hao; Li, Zhong; Yin, Mei; Chen, Xiao-Mei; Ding, Shi-Fang; Li, Chen; Zhai, Qian; Li, Yuan; Liu, Han; Wu, Da-Wei

2015-04-01

Given the high mortality rates in elderly patients with septic shock, the early recognition of patients at greatest risk of death is crucial for the implementation of early intervention strategies. Serum lactate and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels are often elevated in elderly patients with septic shock and are therefore important biomarkers of metabolic and cardiac dysfunction. We hypothesized that a risk stratification system that incorporates the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and lactate and NT-proBNP biomarkers would better predict mortality in geriatric patients with septic shock than the APACHE II score alone. A single-center prospective study was conducted from January 2012 to December 2013 in a 30-bed intensive care unit of a triservice hospital. The lactate area score was defined as the sum of the area under the curve of serial lactate levels measured during the 24 hours following admission divided by 24. The NT-proBNP score was assigned based on NT-proBNP levels measured at admission. The combined score was calculated by adding the lactate area and NT-proBNP scores to the APACHE II score. Multivariate logistic regression analyses and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate which variables and scoring systems served as the best predictors of mortality in elderly septic patients. A total of 115 patients with septic shock were included in the study. The overall 28-day mortality rate was 67.0%. When compared to survivors, nonsurvivors had significantly higher lactate area scores, NT-proBNP scores, APACHE II scores, and combined scores. In the multivariate regression model, the combined score, lactate area score, and mechanical ventilation were independent risk factors associated with death. Receiver operating characteristic curves indicated that the combined score had significantly greater predictive power when compared to the APACHE II score or the NT-proBNP score (P < .05). A combined score that incorporates the APACHE II score with early lactate area and NT-proBNP levels is a useful method for risk stratification in geriatric patients with septic shock. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding factors that influence the use of risk scoring instruments in the management of patients with unstable angina or non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction in the Netherlands: a qualitative study of health care practitioners' perceptions.

PubMed

Engel, Josien; Heeren, Marie-Julie; van der Wulp, Ineke; de Bruijne, Martine C; Wagner, Cordula

2014-09-22

Cardiac risk scores estimate a patient's risk of future cardiac events or death. They are developed to inform treatment decisions of patients diagnosed with unstable angina or non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Despite recommending their use in guidelines and evidence of their prognostic value, they seem underused in practice. The purpose of the study was to gain insight in the motivation for implementing cardiac risk scores, and perceptions of health care practitioners towards the use of these instruments in clinical practice. This qualitative study involved semi-structured interviews with 31 health care practitioners at 11 hospitals throughout the Netherlands. Participants were approached through purposive sampling to represent a broad range of participant- and hospital characteristics, and included cardiologists, medical residents, medical interns, nurse practitioners and an emergency physician. The Pettigrew and Whipp Framework for strategic change was used as a theoretical basis. Data were initially analysed through open coding to avoid forcing data into categories predetermined by the framework. Cardiac risk score use was dependent on several factors, including IT support, clinical relevance for daily practice, rotation of staff and workload. Both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers for implementation were identified. Reminders, feedback and IT solutions were strategies used to improve and sustain the use of these instruments. The scores were seen as valuable support systems in improving uniformity in treatment practices, educating interns, conducting research and quantifying a practitioner's own risk assessment. However, health care practitioners varied in their perceptions regarding the influence of cardiac risk scores on treatment decisions. Health care practitioners disagree on the value of cardiac risk scores for clinical practice. Practitioners driven by intrinsic motivations predominantly experienced benefits in policy-making, education and research. Practitioners who were forced to use cardiac risk scores were less likely to take into account the risk score in their treatment decisions. The results of this study can be used to develop strategies that stimulate or sustain cardiac risk score use in practice, while taking into account barriers that affect cardiac risk score use, and possibly reduce practice variation in the management of unstable angina and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients.

Predicting Long-term Ischemic Events Using Routine Clinical Parameters in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease: The OPT-CAD Risk Score.

PubMed

Han, Yaling; Chen, Jiyan; Qiu, Miaohan; Li, Yi; Li, Jing; Feng, Yingqing; Qiu, Jian; Meng, Liang; Sun, Yihong; Tao, Guizhou; Wu, Zhaohui; Yang, Chunyu; Guo, Jincheng; Pu, Kui; Chen, Shaoliang; Wang, Xiaozeng

2018-06-05

The prognosis of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) at hospital discharge was constantly varying, and post-discharge risk of ischemic events remain a concern. However, risk prediction tools to identify risk of ischemia for these patients has not yet been reported. We sought to develop a scoring system for predicting long-term ischemic events in CAD patients receiving antiplatelet therapy that would be beneficial in appropriate personalized decision-making for these patients. In this prospective Optimal antiPlatelet Therapy for Chinese patients with Coronary Artery Disease (OPT-CAD, NCT01735305) registry, a total of 14,032 patients with CAD receiving at least one kind of antiplatelet agent were enrolled from 107 centers across China, from January 2012 to March 2014. The risk scoring system was developed in a derivation cohort (enrolled initially 10,000 patients in the database) using a logistic regression model and was subsequently tested in a validation cohort (the last 4,032 patients). Points in risk score was assigned based on the multivariable odds ratio of each factor. Ischemic events were defined as the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction or stroke. Ischemic events occurred in 342 (3.4%) patients in the derivation cohort and 160 (4.0%) patients in the validation cohort during 1-year follow-up. The OPT-CAD score, ranging from 0-257 points, consist of 10 independent risk factors, including age (0-71 points), heart rates (0-36 points), hypertension (0-20 points), prior myocardial infarction (16 points), prior stroke (16 points), renal insufficient (21 points), anemia (19 points), low ejection fraction (22 points), positive cardiac troponin (23 points) and ST-segment deviation (13 points). In predicting 1-year ischemic events, the area under receiver operating characteristics curve were 0.73 and 0.72 in derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The incidences of ischemic events in low- (0-90 points), medium- (91-150 points) and high-risk (≥151 points) patients were 1.6%, 5.5%, and 15.0%, respectively. Compared to GRACE score, OPT-CAD score had a better discrimination in predicting ischemic events and all-cause mortality (ischemic events: 0.72 vs 0.65, all-cause mortality: 0.79 vs 0.72, both P<0.001). Among CAD patients, a risk score based on 10 baseline clinical variables performed better than the GRACE risk score in predicting long-term ischemic events. However, further research is needed to assess the value of the OPT-CAD score in guiding the management of antiplatelet therapy for patients with CAD. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Establishment and Validation of GV-SAPS II Scoring System for Non-Diabetic Critically Ill Patients

PubMed Central

Liu, Wen-Yue; Lin, Shi-Gang; Zhu, Gui-Qi; Poucke, Sven Van; Braddock, Martin; Zhang, Zhongheng; Mao, Zhi; Shen, Fei-Xia

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Recently, glucose variability (GV) has been reported as an independent risk factor for mortality in non-diabetic critically ill patients. However, GV is not incorporated in any severity scoring system for critically ill patients currently. The aim of this study was to establish and validate a modified Simplified Acute Physiology Score II scoring system (SAPS II), integrated with GV parameters and named GV-SAPS II, specifically for non-diabetic critically ill patients to predict short-term and long-term mortality. Methods Training and validation cohorts were exacted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care database III version 1.3 (MIMIC-III v1.3). The GV-SAPS II score was constructed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and compared with the original SAPS II, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment Score (SOFA) and Elixhauser scoring systems using area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic (auROC) curve. Results 4,895 and 5,048 eligible individuals were included in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The GV-SAPS II score was established with four independent risk factors, including hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, standard deviation of blood glucose levels (GluSD), and SAPS II score. In the validation cohort, the auROC values of the new scoring system were 0.824 (95% CI: 0.813–0.834, P< 0.001) and 0.738 (95% CI: 0.725–0.750, P< 0.001), respectively for 30 days and 9 months, which were significantly higher than other models used in our study (all P < 0.001). Moreover, Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrated significantly worse outcomes in higher GV-SAPS II score groups both for 30-day and 9-month mortality endpoints (all P< 0.001). Conclusions We established and validated a modified prognostic scoring system that integrated glucose variability for non-diabetic critically ill patients, named GV-SAPS II. It demonstrated a superior prognostic capability and may be an optimal scoring system for prognostic evaluation in this patient group. PMID:27824941

Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) scoring system could provide preoperative advice on whether to undergo laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer patients with a high physiological risk

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ao; Liu, Tingting; Zheng, Kaiyuan; Liu, Ningbo; Huang, Fei; Li, Weidong; Liu, Tong; Fu, Weihua

2017-01-01

Abstract Laparoscopic colorectal surgery had been widely used for colorectal cancer patient and showed a favorable outcome on the postoperative morbidity rate. We attempted to evaluate physiological status of patients by mean of Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) system and to analyze the difference variation of postoperative morbidity rate of open and laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery in patients with different physiological status. In total 550 colorectal cancer patients who underwent surgery treatment were included. E-PASS and some conventional scoring systems were reviewed to examine their mortality prediction ability. The preoperative risk score (PRS) in the E-PASS system was used to evaluate the physiological status of patients. The difference of postoperative morbidity rate between open and laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgeries was analyzed respectively in patients with different physiological status. E-PASS had better prediction ability than other conventional scoring systems in colorectal cancer surgeries. Postoperative morbidities were developed in 143 patients. The parameters in the E-PASS system had positive correlations with postoperative morbidity. The overall postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries was lower than open surgeries (19.61% and 28.46%), but the postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries increased more significantly than in open surgery as PRS increased. When PRS was more than 0.7, the postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries would exceed the postoperative morbidity rate of open surgeries. The E-PASS system was capable to evaluate the physiological and surgical risk of colorectal cancer surgery. PRS could assist preoperative decision-making on the surgical method. Colorectal cancer patients who were assessed with a low physiological risk by PRS would be safe to undergo laparoscopic surgery. On the contrary, surgeons should make decisions prudently on the operation method for patient with a high physiological risk. PMID:28816959

Technical feasibility and validation of a coronary artery calcium scoring system using CT coronary angiography images.

PubMed

Pavitt, Christopher W; Harron, Katie; Lindsay, Alistair C; Zielke, Sayeh; Ray, Robin; Gordon, Daniel; Rubens, Michael B; Padley, Simon P; Nicol, Edward D

2016-05-01

We validate a novel CT coronary angiography (CCTA) coronary calcium scoring system. Calcium was quantified on CCTA images using a new patient-specific attenuation threshold: mean + 2SD of intra-coronary contrast density (HU). Using 335 patient data sets a conversion factor (CF) for predicting CACS from CCTA scores (CCTAS) was derived and validated in a separate cohort (n = 168). Bland-Altman analysis and weighted kappa for MESA centiles and Agatston risk groupings were calculated. Multivariable linear regression yielded a CF: CACS = (1.185 × CCTAS) + (0.002 × CCTAS × attenuation threshold). When applied to CCTA data sets there was excellent correlation (r = 0.95; p < 0.0001) and agreement (mean difference -10.4 [95% limits of agreement -258.9 to 238.1]) with traditional calcium scores. Agreement was better for calcium scores below 500; however, MESA percentile agreement was better for high risk patients. Risk stratification was excellent (Agatston groups k = 0.88 and MESA centiles k = 0.91). Eliminating the dedicated CACS scan decreased patient radiation exposure by approximately one-third. CCTA calcium scores can accurately predict CACS using a simple, individualized, semiautomated approach reducing acquisition time and radiation exposure when evaluating patients for CAD. This method is not affected by the ROI location, imaging protocol, or tube voltage strengthening its clinical applicability. • Coronary calcium scores can be reliably determined on contrast-enhanced cardiac CT • This score can accurately risk stratify patients • Elimination of a dedicated calcium scan reduces patient radiation by a third.

Development of a New Outcome Prediction Model in Early-stage Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Oral Cavity Based on Histopathologic Parameters With Multivariate Analysis: The Aditi-Nuzhat Lymph-node Prediction Score (ANLPS) System.

PubMed

Arora, Aditi; Husain, Nuzhat; Bansal, Ankur; Neyaz, Azfar; Jaiswal, Ritika; Jain, Kavitha; Chaturvedi, Arun; Anand, Nidhi; Malhotra, Kiranpreet; Shukla, Saumya

2017-07-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the histopathologic parameters that predict lymph node metastasis in patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) and to design a new assessment score on the basis of these parameters that could ultimately allow for changes in treatment decisions or aid clinicians in deciding whether there is a need for close follow-up or to perform early lymph node dissection. Histopathologic parameters of 336 cases of OSCC with stage cT1/T2 N0M0 disease were analyzed. The location of the tumor and the type of surgery used for the management of the tumor were recorded for all patients. The parameters, including T stage, grading of tumor, tumor budding, tumor thickness, depth of invasion, shape of tumor nest, lymphoid response at tumor-host interface and pattern of invasion, eosinophilic reaction, foreign-body giant cell reaction, lymphovascular invasion, and perineural invasion, were examined. Ninety-two patients had metastasis in lymph nodes. On univariate and multivariate analysis, independent variables for predicting lymph node metastasis in descending order were depth of invasion (P=0.003), pattern of invasion (P=0.007), perineural invasion (P=0.014), grade (P=0.028), lymphovascular invasion (P=0.038), lymphoid response (P=0.037), and tumor budding (P=0.039). We designed a scoring system on the basis of these statistical results and tested it. Cases with scores ranging from 7 to 11, 12 to 16, and ≥17 points showed LN metastasis in 6.4%, 22.8%, and 77.1% of cases, respectively. The difference between these 3 groups in relation to nodal metastasis was very significant (P<0.0001). A patient at low risk for lymph node metastasis (score, 7 to 11) had a 5-year survival of 93%, moderate-risk patients (score, 12 to 16) had a 5-year survival of 67%, and high-risk patients (score, 17 to 21) had a 5-year survival of 39%. The risk of lymph node metastasis in OSCC is influenced by many histologic parameters that are not routinely analyzed in pathologic reports. These significant independent factors were graded to design a scoring system that permits accurate evaluation of the risk of metastasis with accuracy independent of the traditional TNM system or isolated histologic parameters. The need for neck node dissection can be predicted depending upon the scores obtained.

Additive Genetic Risk from Five Serotonin System Polymorphisms Interacts with Interpersonal Stress to Predict Depression

PubMed Central

Vrshek-Schallhorn, Suzanne; Stroud, Catherine B.; Mineka, Susan; Zinbarg, Richard E.; Adam, Emma K.; Redei, Eva E.; Hammen, Constance; Craske, Michelle G.

2016-01-01

Behavioral genetic research supports polygenic models of depression in which many genetic variations each contribute a small amount of risk, and prevailing diathesis-stress models suggest gene-environment interactions (GxE). Multilocus profile scores of additive risk offer an approach that is consistent with polygenic models of depression risk. In a first demonstration of this approach in a GxE predicting depression, we created an additive multilocus profile score from five serotonin system polymorphisms (one each in the genes HTR1A, HTR2A, HTR2C, and two in TPH2). Analyses focused on two forms of interpersonal stress as environmental risk factors. Using five years of longitudinal diagnostic and life stress interviews from 387 emerging young adults in the Youth Emotion Project, survival analyses show that this multilocus profile score interacts with major interpersonal stressful life events to predict major depressive episode onsets (HR = 1.815, p = .007). Simultaneously, there was a significant protective effect of the profile score without a recent event (HR = 0.83, p = .030). The GxE effect with interpersonal chronic stress was not significant (HR = 1.15, p = .165). Finally, effect sizes for genetic factors examined ignoring stress suggested such an approach could lead to overlooking or misinterpreting genetic effects. Both the GxE effect and the protective simple main effect were replicated in a sample of early adolescent girls (N = 105). We discuss potential benefits of the multilocus genetic profile score approach and caveats for future research. PMID:26595467

ASXL1 and BIM germ line variants predict response and identify CML patients with the greatest risk of imatinib failure

PubMed Central

Marum, Justine E.; Yeung, David T.; Purins, Leanne; Reynolds, John; Parker, Wendy T.; Stangl, Doris; Wang, Paul P. S.; Price, David J.; Tuke, Jonathan; Schreiber, Andreas W.; Scott, Hamish S.; Hughes, Timothy P.

2017-01-01

Scoring systems used at diagnosis of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), such as Sokal risk, provide important response prediction for patients treated with imatinib. However, the sensitivity and specificity of scoring systems could be enhanced for improved identification of patients with the highest risk. We aimed to identify genomic predictive biomarkers of imatinib response at diagnosis to aid selection of first-line therapy. Targeted amplicon sequencing was performed to determine the germ line variant profile in 517 and 79 patients treated with first-line imatinib and nilotinib, respectively. The Sokal score and ASXL1 rs4911231 and BIM rs686952 variants were independent predictors of early molecular response (MR), major MR, deep MRs (MR4 and MR4.5), and failure-free survival (FFS) with imatinib treatment. In contrast, the ASXL1 and BIM variants did not consistently predict MR or FFS with nilotinib treatment. In the imatinib-treated cohort, neither Sokal or the ASXL1 and BIM variants predicted overall survival (OS) or progression to accelerated phase or blast crisis (AP/BC). The Sokal risk score was combined with the ASXL1 and BIM variants in a classification tree model to predict imatinib response. The model distinguished an ultra-high-risk group, representing 10% of patients, that predicted inferior OS (88% vs 97%; P = .041), progression to AP/BC (12% vs 1%; P = .034), FFS (P < .001), and MRs (P < .001). The ultra-high-risk patients may be candidates for more potent or combination first-line therapy. These data suggest that germ line genetic variation contributes to the heterogeneity of response to imatinib and may contribute to a prognostic risk score that allows early optimization of therapy. PMID:29296778

Development of a new scoring system for predicting the 5 year incidence of type 2 diabetes in Japan: the Toranomon Hospital Health Management Center Study 6 (TOPICS 6).

PubMed

Heianza, Y; Arase, Y; Hsieh, S D; Saito, K; Tsuji, H; Kodama, S; Tanaka, S; Ohashi, Y; Shimano, H; Yamada, N; Hara, S; Sone, H

2012-12-01

The aims of this study were to assess the clinical significance of introducing HbA(1c) into a risk score for diabetes and to develop a scoring system to predict the 5 year incidence of diabetes in Japanese individuals. The study included 7,654 non-diabetic individuals aged 40-75 years. Incident diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/l, HbA(1c) ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol) or self-reported clinician-diagnosed diabetes. We constructed a risk score using non-laboratory assessments (NLA) and evaluated improvements in risk prediction by adding elevated FPG, elevated HbA(1c) or both to NLA. The discriminative ability of the NLA score (age, sex, family history of diabetes, current smoking and BMI) was 0.708. The difference in discrimination between the NLA + FPG and NLA + HbA(1c) scores was non-significant (0.836 vs 0.837; p = 0.898). A risk score including family history of diabetes, smoking, obesity and both FPG and HbA(1c) had the highest discrimination (0.887, 95% CI 0.871, 0.903). At an optimal cut-off point, sensitivity and specificity were high at 83.7% and 79.0%, respectively. After initial screening using NLA scores, subsequent information on either FPG or HbA(1c) resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 42.7% or 52.3%, respectively (p < 0.0001). When both were available, net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement were further improved at 56.7% (95% CI 47.3%, 66.1%) and 10.9% (9.7%, 12.1%), respectively. Information on HbA(1c) or FPG levels after initial screening by NLA can precisely refine diabetes risk reclassification.

The UK DCD Risk Score: A new proposal to define futility in donation-after-circulatory-death liver transplantation.

PubMed

Schlegel, Andrea; Kalisvaart, Marit; Scalera, Irene; Laing, Richard W; Mergental, Hynek; Mirza, Darius F; Perera, Thamara; Isaac, John; Dutkowski, Philipp; Muiesan, Paolo

2018-03-01

Primary non-function and ischaemic cholangiopathy are the most feared complications following donation-after-circulatory-death (DCD) liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to design a new score on risk assessment in liver-transplantation DCD based on donor-and-recipient parameters. Using the UK national DCD database, a risk analysis was performed in adult recipients of DCD liver grafts in the UK between 2000 and 2015 (n = 1,153). A new risk score was calculated (UK DCD Risk Score) on the basis of a regression analysis. This is validated using the United Network for Organ Sharing database (n = 1,617) and our own DCD liver-transplant database (n = 315). Finally, the new score was compared with two other available prediction systems: the DCD risk scores from the University of California, Los Angeles and King's College Hospital, London. The following seven strongest predictors of DCD graft survival were identified: functional donor warm ischaemia, cold ischaemia, recipient model for end-stage liver disease, recipient age, donor age, previous orthotopic liver transplantation, and donor body mass index. A combination of these risk factors (UK DCD risk model) stratified the best recipients in terms of graft survival in the entire UK DCD database, as well as in the United Network for Organ Sharing and in our own DCD population. Importantly, the UK DCD Risk Score significantly predicted graft loss caused by primary non-function or ischaemic cholangiopathy in the futile group (>10 score points). The new prediction model demonstrated a better C statistic of 0.79 compared to the two other available systems (0.71 and 0.64, respectively). The UK DCD Risk Score is a reliable tool to detect high-risk and futile combinations of donor-and-recipient factors in DCD liver transplantation. It is simple to use and offers a great potential for making better decisions on which DCD graft should be rejected or may benefit from functional assessment and further optimization by machine perfusion. In this study, we provide a new prediction model for graft loss in donation-after-circulatory-death (DCD) liver transplantation. Based on UK national data, the new UK DCD Risk Score involves the following seven clinically relevant risk factors: donor age, donor body mass index, functional donor warm ischaemia, cold storage, recipient age, recipient laboratory model for end-stage liver disease, and retransplantation. Three risk classes were defined: low risk (0-5 points), high risk (6-10 points), and futile (>10 points). This new model stratified best in terms of graft survival compared to other available models. Futile combinations (>10 points) achieved an only very limited 1- and 5-year graft survival of 37% and less than 20%, respectively. In contrast, an excellent graft survival has been shown in low-risk combinations (≤5 points). The new model is easy to calculate at the time of liver acceptance. It may help to decide which risk combination will benefit from additional graft treatment, or which DCD liver should be declined for a certain recipient. Copyright © 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the occurrence of embolic events: an analysis of 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the Italian Study on Endocarditis (SEI)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Embolic events are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with infective endocarditis. We analyzed the database of the prospective cohort study SEI in order to identify factors associated with the occurrence of embolic events and to develop a scoring system for the assessment of the risk of embolism. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 1456 episodes of infective endocarditis from the multicenter study SEI. Predictors of embolism were identified. Risk factors identified at multivariate analysis as predictive of embolism in left-sided endocarditis, were used for the development of a risk score: 1 point was assigned to each risk factor (total risk score range: minimum 0 points; maximum 2 points). Three categories were defined by the score: low (0 points), intermediate (1 point), or high risk (2 points); the probability of embolic events per risk category was calculated for each day on treatment (day 0 through day 30). Results There were 499 episodes of infective endocarditis (34%) that were complicated by ≥ 1 embolic event. Most embolic events occurred early in the clinical course (first week of therapy: 15.5 episodes per 1000 patient days; second week: 3.7 episodes per 1000 patient days). In the total cohort, the factors associated with the occurrence of embolism at multivariate analysis were prosthetic valve localization (odds ratio, 1.84), right-sided endocarditis (odds ratio, 3.93), Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.23) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 1.86). In left-sided endocarditis, Staphylococcus aureus etiology (odds ratio, 2.1) and vegetation size ≥ 13 mm (odds ratio, 2.1) were independently associated with embolic events; the 30-day cumulative incidence of embolism varied with risk score category (low risk, 12%; intermediate risk, 25%; high risk, 38%; p < 0.001). Conclusions Staphylococcus aureus etiology and vegetation size are associated with an increased risk of embolism. In left-sided endocarditis, a simple scoring system, which combines etiology and vegetation size with time on antimicrobials, might contribute to a better assessment of the risk of embolism, and to a more individualized analysis of indications and contraindications for early surgery. PMID:24779617

Relapses vs. reactions in multibacillary leprosy: proposal of new relapse criteria.

PubMed

Linder, Katharina; Zia, Mutaher; Kern, Winfried V; Pfau, Ruth K M; Wagner, Dirk

2008-03-01

To compare a new scoring system for multibacillary (MB) leprosy relapses, which combines time factor, risk factors and clinical presentation at relapse, to WHO criteria. Data were collected on all relapses diagnosed between 1998 and 2004 at the Marie-Adelaide-Centre in Karachi, Pakistan, including case histories, clinical manifestations, follow-up, bacterial indices, treatment and contacts. For the diagnosis of MB relapses a simple scoring system was developed and validated on a data-set of mouse foot pads (MFP)-confirmed relapses (Leprosy Reviews, 76, 2005, 241). Its sensitivity was further evaluated in the Karachi relapse cohort. The P-value was calculated with McNemar's test with continuity correction. The new scoring system that combines time factor, risk factors and clinical presentation at relapse had a higher sensitivity in MFP-confirmed relapses than the WHO-criteria (95%vs. 65%, P < 0.01). The sensitivity of the scoring system was also significantly higher than the WHO criteria in the 57 cases of MB-relapses diagnosed in Karachi (72%vs. 54%, P < 0.05). This new simple scoring system for diagnosing MB-relapses in leprosy should be further validated in a prospective study to confirm its superior sensitivity and to evaluate the specificity of these criteria by using MFP-confirmation for patients presenting with signs of activity after treatment.

Genetic Predisposition to Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Kamatani, Yoichiro; Takahashi, Atsushi; Hata, Jun; Furukawa, Ryohei; Shiwa, Yuh; Yamaji, Taiki; Hara, Megumi; Tanno, Kozo; Ohmomo, Hideki; Ono, Kanako; Takashima, Naoyuki; Matsuda, Koichi; Wakai, Kenji; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Ago, Tetsuro; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Fukushima, Akimune; Hozawa, Atsushi; Minegishi, Naoko; Satoh, Mamoru; Endo, Ryujin; Sasaki, Makoto; Sakata, Kiyomi; Kobayashi, Seiichiro; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Hitomi, Jiro; Kita, Yoshikuni; Tanaka, Keitaro; Iso, Hiroyasu; Kitazono, Takanari; Kubo, Michiaki; Tanaka, Hideo; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Yamamoto, Masayuki; Sobue, Kenji; Shimizu, Atsushi

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose— The prediction of genetic predispositions to ischemic stroke (IS) may allow the identification of individuals at elevated risk and thereby prevent IS in clinical practice. Previously developed weighted multilocus genetic risk scores showed limited predictive ability for IS. Here, we investigated the predictive ability of a newer method, polygenic risk score (polyGRS), based on the idea that a few strong signals, as well as several weaker signals, can be collectively informative to determine IS risk. Methods— We genotyped 13 214 Japanese individuals with IS and 26 470 controls (derivation samples) and generated both multilocus genetic risk scores and polyGRS, using the same derivation data set. The predictive abilities of each scoring system were then assessed using 2 independent sets of Japanese samples (KyushuU and JPJM data sets). Results— In both validation data sets, polyGRS was shown to be significantly associated with IS, but weighted multilocus genetic risk scores was not. Comparing the highest with the lowest polyGRS quintile, the odds ratios for IS were 1.75 (95% confidence interval, 1.33–2.31) and 1.99 (95% confidence interval, 1.19–3.33) in the KyushuU and JPJM samples, respectively. Using the KyushuU samples, the addition of polyGRS to a nongenetic risk model resulted in a significant improvement of the predictive ability (net reclassification improvement=0.151; P<0.001). Conclusions— The polyGRS was shown to be superior to weighted multilocus genetic risk scores as an IS prediction model. Thus, together with the nongenetic risk factors, polyGRS will provide valuable information for individual risk assessment and management of modifiable risk factors. PMID:28034966

Japanese scoring systems to predict resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin in Kawasaki disease were unreliable for Caucasian Israeli children.

PubMed

Arane, Karen; Mendelsohn, Kerry; Mimouni, Michael; Mimouni, Francis; Koren, Yael; Simon, Dafna Brik; Bahat, Hilla; Helou, Mona Hanna; Mendelson, Amir; Hezkelo, Nofar; Glatstein, Miguel; Berkun, Yackov; Eisenstein, Eli; Aviel, Yonatan Butbul; Brik, Riva; Hashkes, Philip J; Uziel, Yosef; Harel, Liora; Amarilyo, Gil

2018-05-24

This study assessed the validity of using established Japanese risk scoring methods to predict intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance to Kawasaki disease in Israeli children. We reviewed the medical records of 282 patients (70% male) with Kawasaki disease from six Israeli medical centres between 2004-2013. Their mean age was 2.5 years. The risk scores were calculated using the Kobayashi, Sano and Egami scoring methods and analysed to determine if a higher risk score predicted IVIG resistance in this population. Factors that predicted a lack of response to the initial IVIG dose were identified. We found that 18% did not respond to the first IVIG dose. The three scoring methods were unable to reliably predict IVIG resistance, with sensitivities of 23-32% and specificities of 67-87%. Calculating a predictive score that was specific for this population was also unsuccessful. The factors that predicted a lacked of response to the first IVIG dose included low albumin, elevated total bilirubin and ethnicity. The established risk scoring methods created for Japanese populations with Kawasaki disease were not suitable for predicting IVIG resistance in Caucasian Israeli children and we were unable to create a specific scoring method that was able to do this. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Predicting outcome of acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage without endoscopy using the clinical Rockall Score.

PubMed

Tham, T C K; James, C; Kelly, M

2006-11-01

The Rockall risk scoring system uses clinical criteria and endoscopy to identify patients at risk of adverse outcomes after acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. A clinical Rockall score obtained using only the clinical criteria may be able to predict outcome without endoscopy. To validate the clinical Rockall Score in predicting outcome after acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. A retrospective observational study of consecutive patients who were admitted with non-variceal acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage was undertaken. Medical records were abstracted using a standardised form. 102 cases were identified (51 men and 51 women; mean age 59 years). 38 (37%) patients considered to be at low risk of adverse outcomes (clinical Rockall Score 0) had no adverse outcomes and did not require transfusion. Patients with a clinical Rockall Score of 1-3 had no adverse outcomes, although 13 of 45 (29%) patients required blood transfusions. Clinical Rockall Scores >3 (n = 19) were associated with adverse outcomes (rebleeding in 4 (21%), surgery in 1 (5%) and death in 2 (10%)). The clinical Rockall Score without endoscopy may be a useful prognostic indicator in this cohort of patients with acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. This score may reduce the need for urgent endoscopy in low-risk patients, which can instead be carried out on a more elective outpatient basis.

Impact of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System, cytogenetics and monosomal karyotype on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation for myelodysplastic syndromes and secondary acute myeloid leukemia evolving from myelodysplastic syndromes: a retrospective multicenter study of the European Society of Blood and Marrow Transplantation

PubMed Central

Koenecke, Christian; Göhring, Gudrun; de Wreede, Liesbeth C.; van Biezen, Anja; Scheid, Christof; Volin, Liisa; Maertens, Johan; Finke, Jürgen; Schaap, Nicolaas; Robin, Marie; Passweg, Jakob; Cornelissen, Jan; Beelen, Dietrich; Heuser, Michael; de Witte, Theo; Kröger, Nicolaus

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the revised 5-group International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes or secondary acute myeloid leukemia who were reported to the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation database. A total of 903 patients had sufficient cytogenetic information available at stem cell transplantation to be classified according to the 5-group classification. Poor and very poor risk according to this classification was an independent predictor of shorter relapse-free survival (hazard ratio 1.40 and 2.14), overall survival (hazard ratio 1.38 and 2.14), and significantly higher cumulative incidence of relapse (hazard ratio 1.64 and 2.76), compared to patients with very good, good or intermediate risk. When comparing the predictive performance of a series of Cox models both for relapse-free survival and for overall survival, a model with simplified 5-group cytogenetics (merging very good, good and intermediate cytogenetics) performed best. Furthermore, monosomal karyotype is an additional negative predictor for outcome within patients of the poor, but not the very poor risk group of the 5-group classification. The revised International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification allows patients with myelodysplastic syndromes to be separated into three groups with clearly different outcomes after stem cell transplantation. Poor and very poor risk cytogenetics were strong predictors of poor patient outcome. The new cytogenetic classification added value to prediction of patient outcome compared to prediction models using only traditional risk factors or the 3-group International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification. PMID:25552702

Abuse, Nocturnal Stress Hormones, and Coronary Heart Disease Risk Among Women with HIV

PubMed Central

Dale, Sannisha K.; Weber, Kathleen M.; Cohen, Mardge H.; Brody, Leslie R.

2017-01-01

This study investigated the relationships among abuse, nocturnal levels of cortisol and norepinephrine (NE), and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk as measured by the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) among women with HIV. Participants (n=53) from the Chicago Women's Interagency HIV Study, a longitudinal prospective cohort study initiated in 1994, were enrolled in this study during 2012. At WIHS baseline and annual follow-up visits women were asked about recent experiences of abuse. Summary variables captured the proportion of visits for which women reported recent (past 12 months) physical, sexual, and domestic abuse. Cortisol and NE were assayed in overnight urine samples and adjusted for creatinine levels. Recent abuse was not significantly associated with levels of cortisol, NE, or NE/cortisol ratio. However, higher NE/cortisol ratio was significantly related to higher CHD risk score, higher cortisol was significantly related to lower CHD risk score, and NE was not associated with CHD risk score. In addition, higher proportions of visits with recent sexual abuse, physical abuse, and domestic abuse were significantly related to higher CHD risk score. The association between abuse exposure and CHD risk in the context of HIV infection is likely complex and may involve dysregulation of multiple neurobiological systems. Future research is needed to better understand these relationships and prevention and intervention efforts are needed to address abuse among women with HIV. PMID:27733045

External validation of the simple clinical score and the HOTEL score, two scores for predicting short-term mortality after admission to an acute medical unit.

PubMed

Stræde, Mia; Brabrand, Mikkel

2014-01-01

Clinical scores can be of aid to predict early mortality after admission to a medical admission unit. A developed scoring system needs to be externally validated to minimise the risk of the discriminatory power and calibration to be falsely elevated. We performed the present study with the objective of validating the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and the HOTEL score, two existing risk stratification systems that predict mortality for medical patients based solely on clinical information, but not only vital signs. Pre-planned prospective observational cohort study. Danish 460-bed regional teaching hospital. We included 3046 consecutive patients from 2 October 2008 until 19 February 2009. 26 (0.9%) died within one calendar day and 196 (6.4%) died within 30 days. We calculated SCS for 1080 patients. We found an AUROC of 0.960 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.932 to 0.988) for 24-hours mortality and 0.826 (95% CI, 0.774-0.879) for 30-day mortality, and goodness-of-fit test, χ(2) = 2.68 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.998 and χ(2) = 4.00, P = 0.947, respectively. We included 1470 patients when calculating the HOTEL score. Discriminatory power (AUROC) was 0.931 (95% CI, 0.901-0.962) for 24-hours mortality and goodness-of-fit test, χ(2) = 5.56 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.234. We find that both the SCS and HOTEL scores showed an excellent to outstanding ability in identifying patients at high risk of dying with good or acceptable precision.

Development of prediction models of stress and long-term disability among claimants to injury compensation systems: a cohort study.

PubMed

Spittal, Matthew J; Grant, Genevieve; O'Donnell, Meaghan; McFarlane, Alexander C; Studdert, David M

2018-04-28

We sought to develop prognostic risk scores for compensation-related stress and long-term disability using markers collected within 3 months of a serious injury. Cohort study. Predictors were collected at baseline and at 3 months postinjury. Outcome data were collected at 72 months postinjury. Hospitalised patients with serious injuries recruited from four major trauma hospitals in Australia. 332 participants who made claims for compensation for their injuries to a transport accident scheme or a workers' compensation scheme. 12-item WHO Disability Assessment Schedule and 6 items from the Claims Experience Survey. Our model for long-term disability had four predictors (unemployed at the time of injury, history of a psychiatric disorder at time of injury, post-traumatic stress disorder symptom severity at 3 months and disability at 3 months). This model had good discrimination (R 2 =0.37) and calibration. The disability risk score had a score range of 0-180, and at a threshold of 80 had sensitivity of 56% and specificity of 86%. Our model for compensation-related stress had five predictors (intensive care unit admission, discharged to home, number of traumatic events prior to injury, depression at 3 months and not working at 3 months). This model also had good discrimination (area under the curve=0.83) and calibration. The compensation-related stress risk score had score range of 0-220 and at a threshold of 100 had sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 75%. By combining these two scoring systems, we were able to identify the subgroup of claimants at highest risk of experiencing both outcomes. The ability to identify at an early stage claimants at high risk of compensation-related stress and poor recovery is potentially valuable for claimants and the compensation agencies that serve them. The scoring systems we developed could be incorporated into the claims-handling processes to guide prevention-oriented interventions. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Comparison of four contemporary risk models at predicting mortality after aortic valve replacement.

PubMed

Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Choi, David H M; Stewart, Ralph; Gamble, Greg; Haydock, David; Ruygrok, Peter

2015-02-01

Risk stratification for aortic valve replacement (AVR) is desirable given the increased demand for intervention and the introduction of transcatheter aortic valve implantation. We compared the prognostic utility of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), EuroSCORE II, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, and an Australasian model (Aus-AVR score) for AVR. We retrospectively calculated the 4 risk scores for patients undergoing isolated AVR at Auckland City Hospital from 2005 to 2012 and assessed their discrimination and calibration for short- and long-term mortality. A total of 620 patients were followed up for 3.8 ± 2.4 years, with an operative mortality of 2.9% (n = 18). The mean EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II, STS score, and Aus-AVR score was 8.7% ± 8.3%, 3.8% ± 4.7%, 2.8% ± 2.7%, and 3.2% ± 4.8%, respectively. The corresponding C-statistics for operative mortality were 0.752 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.652-0.852), 0.711 (95% CI, 0.607-0.815), 0.716 (95% CI, 0.593-0.837), and 0.684 (95% CI, 0.557-0.811). The corresponding Hosmer-Lemeshow test P and chi-square values for calibration were .007 and 21.1, .125 and 12.6, .753 and 5.0, and .468 and 7.7. The corresponding Brier scores were 0.0348, 0.0278, 0.0276, and 0.0294. Independent predictors of operative mortality included critical preoperative state, atrial fibrillation, extracardiac arteriopathy, and mitral stenosis. The log-rank test P values were all <.001 for mortality during follow-up for all 4 scores, stratified by quintile. All 4 risk scores discriminated operative mortality after isolated AVR. The EuroSCORE had poor calibration, overestimating operative mortality, although the other 3 scores fitted well with contemporary outcomes. The STS score was the best calibrated in the highest quintile of operative risk. Copyright © 2015 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: international multicentre prospective study.

PubMed

Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R; Ngu, Jing H; Schultz, Michael; Abazi, Roseta; Zakko, Liam; Thornton, Susan; Wilkinson, Kelly; Khor, Cristopher J L; Murray, Iain A; Laursen, Stig B

2017-01-04

 To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  International multicentre prospective study.  Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.  3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.  The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay.  The Glasgow Blatchford score has high accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited.Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16235737. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

A point-based prediction model for cardiovascular risk in orthotopic liver transplantation: The CAR-OLT score.

PubMed

VanWagner, Lisa B; Ning, Hongyan; Whitsett, Maureen; Levitsky, Josh; Uttal, Sarah; Wilkins, John T; Abecassis, Michael M; Ladner, Daniela P; Skaro, Anton I; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

2017-12-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications are important causes of morbidity and mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). There is currently no preoperative risk-assessment tool that allows physicians to estimate the risk for CVD events following OLT. We sought to develop a point-based prediction model (risk score) for CVD complications after OLT, the Cardiovascular Risk in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation risk score, among a cohort of 1,024 consecutive patients aged 18-75 years who underwent first OLT in a tertiary-care teaching hospital (2002-2011). The main outcome measures were major 1-year CVD complications, defined as death from a CVD cause or hospitalization for a major CVD event (myocardial infarction, revascularization, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cardiac arrest, pulmonary embolism, and/or stroke). The bootstrap method yielded bias-corrected 95% confidence intervals for the regression coefficients of the final model. Among 1,024 first OLT recipients, major CVD complications occurred in 329 (32.1%). Variables selected for inclusion in the model (using model optimization strategies) included preoperative recipient age, sex, race, employment status, education status, history of hepatocellular carcinoma, diabetes, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary or systemic hypertension, and respiratory failure. The discriminative performance of the point-based score (C statistic = 0.78, bias-corrected C statistic = 0.77) was superior to other published risk models for postoperative CVD morbidity and mortality, and it had appropriate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.33). The point-based risk score can identify patients at risk for CVD complications after OLT surgery (available at www.carolt.us); this score may be useful for identification of candidates for further risk stratification or other management strategies to improve CVD outcomes after OLT. (Hepatology 2017;66:1968-1979). © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhong, Bin-Yan; He, Shi-Cheng; Zhu, Hai-Dong

PurposeWe aim to determine the predictors of new adjacent vertebral fractures (AVCFs) after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) and to construct a risk prediction score to estimate a 2-year new AVCF risk-by-risk factor condition.Materials and MethodsPatients with OVCFs who underwent their first PVP between December 2006 and December 2013 at Hospital A (training cohort) and Hospital B (validation cohort) were included in this study. In training cohort, we assessed the independent risk predictors and developed the probability of new adjacent OVCFs (PNAV) score system using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The accuracy ofmore » this system was then validated in both training and validation cohorts by concordance (c) statistic.Results421 patients (training cohort: n = 256; validation cohort: n = 165) were included in this study. In training cohort, new AVCFs after the first PVP treatment occurred in 33 (12.9%) patients. The independent risk factors were intradiscal cement leakage and preexisting old vertebral compression fracture(s). The estimated 2-year absolute risk of new AVCFs ranged from less than 4% in patients with neither independent risk factors to more than 45% in individuals with both factors.ConclusionsThe PNAV score is an objective and easy approach to predict the risk of new AVCFs.« less

Prescription Pattern of NSAIDs and the Prevalence of NSAID-induced Gastrointestinal Risk Factors of Orthopaedic Patients in Clinical Practice in Korea

PubMed Central

Lee, Sung-Hun; Han, Chang-Dong; Yang, Ick-Hwan

2011-01-01

This is a cross-sectional observational study undertaken to explore the current prescription pattern of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and the prevalence of NSAID-induced gastrointestinal (GI) risk factors of orthopaedic patients in real clinical practice in Korea. Study cohort included 3,140 orthopaedic outpatients at 131 hospitals and clinics between January 2008 and August 2008. A self-administered questionnaire was completed by each patient and physician. A simplified risk scoring scale (the Standardized Calculator of Risk for Events; SCORE) was used to measure patients' risk for GI complications. The pattern of NSAIDs prescription was identified from medical recordings. Forty-five percents of the patients belonged to high risk or very high risk groups for GI complications. The cyclooxygenase-2 enzyme (COX-2) selective NSAID showed a propensity to be prescribed more commonly for high/very high GI risk groups, but the rate was still as low as 51%. In conclusion, physician's considerate prescription of NSAIDs with well-understanding of each patient's GI risk factors is strongly encouraged in order to maximize cost effectiveness and to prevent serious GI complications in Korea. Other strategic efforts such as medical association-led education programs and application of Korean electronic SCORE system to hospital order communication system (OCS) should also be accompanied in a way to promote physician's attention. PMID:21468265

Increased preference of surface ablation over laser in situ keratomileusis between 2008–2011 is correlated to risk of ecatasia

PubMed Central

Moisseiev, Elad; Sela, Tzahi; Minkev, Liza; Varssano, David

2013-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the trends in corneal refractive procedure selection for the correction of myopia, focusing on the relative proportions of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) and surface ablation procedures. Methods Only eyes that underwent LASIK or surface ablation for the correction of myopia between 2008–2011 were included in this retrospective study. Additional recorded parameters included patient age, preoperative manifest refraction, corneal thickness, and calculated residual corneal bed thickness. A risk score was given to each eye, based on these parameters, according to the Ectasia Risk Factor Score System (ERFSS), without the preoperative corneal topography. Results This study included 16,163 eyes, of which 38.4% underwent LASIK and 61.6% underwent surface ablation. The risk score correlated with procedure selection, with LASIK being preferred in eyes with a score of 0 and surface ablation in eyes with a score of 2 or higher. When controlling for age, preoperative manifest refraction, corneal thickness, and all parameters, the relative proportion of surface ablation compared with LASIK was found to have grown significantly during the study period. Conclusions Our results indicate that with time, surface ablation tended to be performed more often than LASIK for the correction of myopia in our cohort. Increased awareness of risk factors and preoperative risk assessment tools, such as the ERFSS, have shifted the current practice of refractive surgery from LASIK towards surface ablation despite the former’s advantages, especially in cases in which the risk for ectasia is more than minimal (risk score 2 and higher). PMID:23345963

Cardiovascular Risk Factor Burden in Veterans and Non-Veterans with Parkinson Disease

PubMed Central

Kotagal, Vikas; Albin, Roger L.; Müller, Martijn L.T.M; Bohnen, Nicolaas I.

2018-01-01

Background Medical comorbidities, including cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes, influence disease progression in Parkinson disease (PD) and may be variably present in different clinical populations. Objective/Methods We conducted a retrospective nested case-control study of 29 Veterans with PD and 29 non-Veteran PD controls. The groups were matched for age, gender, and disease duration. Both groups underwent clinical and imaging testing as part of their participation in a larger cross-sectional PD observational study at our research center. Veterans were recruited primarily from movement disorders neurology clinics at the Ann Arbor Veterans Affairs (VA) Health System. Non-Veterans were recruited primarily from analogous clinics at the University of Michigan Health System. We explored differences in cardiovascular risks factor burden between the groups. Results Veterans with PD showed higher scores on the simplified Framingham 10-year general cardiovascular disease risk calculator (FR score; 27.3% (11.5) vs. 20.7% (6.8); t = −2.66, p = 0.011) and fewer years of self-reported education (14.5 (2.5) vs. 16.7 (2.6); t = 3.33, p = 0.002). After adjusting for age, disease duration, education, and the use of antihypertensive medications, Veterans showed higher FR scores (t = 2.95, p = 0.005) and a higher intra-subject ratio of FR score to age-and-gender normalized FR score (t = 2.49, p = 0.016), representing an elevated component of modifiable cardiovascular risk factor burden. Conclusion Cardiovascular comorbidities are common in Veterans with PD and may be more severe than in non-Veteran PD populations. These findings merit replication in other representative cohorts. Veterans may be a preferred population for clinical trials evaluating cardiovascular risk factor management on PD progression. PMID:29480230

Sub-classification of Advanced-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Cohort Study Including 612 Patients Treated with Sorafenib.

PubMed

Yoo, Jeong-Ju; Chung, Goh Eun; Lee, Jeong-Hoon; Nam, Joon Yeul; Chang, Young; Lee, Jeong Min; Lee, Dong Ho; Kim, Hwi Young; Cho, Eun Ju; Yu, Su Jong; Kim, Yoon Jun; Yoon, Jung-Hwan

2018-04-01

Advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with various clinical conditions including major vessel invasion, metastasis, and poor performance status. The aim of this study was to establish a prognostic scoring system and to propose a sub-classification of the Barcelona-Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage C. This retrospective study included consecutive patientswho received sorafenib for BCLC stage C HCC at a single tertiary hospital in Korea. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to develop a scoring system, and internal validationwas performed by a 5-fold cross-validation. The performance of the model in predicting risk was assessed by the area under the curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. A total of 612 BCLC stage C HCC patients were sub- classified into strata depending on their performance status. Five independent prognostic factors (Child-Pugh score, α-fetoprotein, tumor type, extrahepatic metastasis, and portal vein invasion) were identified and used in the prognostic scoring system. This scoring system showed good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.734 to 0.818) and calibration functions (both p < 0.05 by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test at 1 month and 12 months, respectively). The differences in survival among the different risk groups classified by the total score were significant (p < 0.001 by the log-rank test in both the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 0 and 1 strata). The heterogeneity of patientswith BCLC stage C HCC requires sub-classification of advanced HCC. A prognostic scoring system with five independent factors is useful in predicting the survival of patients with BCLC stage C HCC.

Clinical audit in gynecological cancer surgery: development of a risk scoring system to predict adverse events.

PubMed

Kondalsamy-Chennakesavan, Srinivas; Bouman, Chantal; De Jong, Suzanne; Sanday, Karen; Nicklin, Jim; Land, Russell; Obermair, Andreas

2009-12-01

Advanced gynecological surgery undertaken in a specialized gynecologic oncology unit may be associated with significant perioperative morbidity. Validated risk prediction models are available for general surgical specialties but currently not for gynecological cancer surgery. The objective of this study was to evaluate risk factors for adverse events (AEs) of patients treated for suspected or proven gynecological cancer and to develop a clinical risk score (RS) to predict such AEs. AEs were prospectively recorded and matched with demographical, clinical and histopathological data on 369 patients who had an abdominal or laparoscopic procedure for proven or suspected gynecological cancer at a tertiary gynecological cancer center. Stepwise multiple logistic regression was used to determine the best predictors of AEs. For the risk score (RS), the coefficients from the model were scaled using a factor of 2 and rounded to the nearest integer to derive the risk points. Sum of all the risk points form the RS. Ninety-five patients (25.8%) had at least one AE. Twenty-nine (7.9%) and 77 (20.9%) patients experienced intra- and postoperative AEs respectively with 11 patients (3.0%) experiencing both. The independent predictors for any AE were complexity of the surgical procedure, elevated SGOT (serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase, > or /=35 U/L), higher ASA scores and overweight. The risk score can vary from 0 to 14. The risk for developing any AE is described by the formula 100 / (1 + e((3.697 - (RS /2)))). RS allows for quantification of the risk for AEs. Risk factors are generally not modifiable with the possible exception of obesity.

The discriminatory capability of existing scores to predict advanced colorectal neoplasia: a prospective colonoscopy study of 5,899 screening participants.

PubMed

Wong, Martin C S; Ching, Jessica Y L; Ng, Simpson; Lam, Thomas Y T; Luk, Arthur K C; Wong, Sunny H; Ng, Siew C; Ng, Simon S M; Wu, Justin C Y; Chan, Francis K L; Sung, Joseph J Y

2016-02-03

We evaluated the performance of seven existing risk scoring systems in predicting advanced colorectal neoplasia in an asymptomatic Chinese cohort. We prospectively recruited 5,899 Chinese subjects aged 50-70 years in a colonoscopy screening programme(2008-2014). Scoring systems under evaluation included two scoring tools from the US; one each from Spain, Germany, and Poland; the Korean Colorectal Screening(KCS) scores; and the modified Asia Pacific Colorectal Screening(APCS) scores. The c-statistics, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values(PPVs), and negative predictive values(NPVs) of these systems were evaluated. The resources required were estimated based on the Number Needed to Screen(NNS) and the Number Needed to Refer for colonoscopy(NNR). Advanced neoplasia was detected in 364 (6.2%) subjects. The German system referred the least proportion of subjects (11.2%) for colonoscopy, whilst the KCS scoring system referred the highest (27.4%). The c-statistics of all systems ranged from 0.56-0.65, with sensitivities ranging from 0.04-0.44 and specificities from 0.74-0.99. The modified APCS scoring system had the highest c-statistics (0.65, 95% C.I. 0.58-0.72). The NNS (12-19) and NNR (5-10) were similar among the scoring systems. The existing scoring systems have variable capability to predict advanced neoplasia among asymptomatic Chinese subjects, and further external validation should be performed.

Prediction of Waitlist Mortality in Adult Heart Transplant Candidates: The Candidate Risk Score.

PubMed

Jasseron, Carine; Legeai, Camille; Jacquelinet, Christian; Leprince, Pascal; Cantrelle, Christelle; Audry, Benoît; Porcher, Raphael; Bastien, Olivier; Dorent, Richard

2017-09-01

The cardiac allocation system in France is currently based on urgency and geography. Medical urgency is defined by therapies without considering objective patient mortality risk factors. This study aimed to develop a waitlist mortality risk score from commonly available candidate variables. The study included all patients, aged 16 years or older, registered on the national registry CRISTAL for first single-organ heart transplantation between January 2010 and December 2014. This population was randomly divided in a 2:1 ratio into derivation and validation cohorts. The association of variables at listing with 1-year waitlist death or delisting for worsening medical condition was assessed within the derivation cohort. The predictors were used to generate a candidate risk score (CRS). Validation of the CRS was performed in the validation cohort. Concordance probability estimation (CPE) was used to evaluate the discriminative capacity of the models. During the study period, 2333 patients were newly listed. The derivation (n =1 555) and the validation cohorts (n = 778) were similar. Short-term mechanical circulatory support, natriuretic peptide decile, glomerular filtration rate, and total bilirubin level were included in a simplified model and incorporated into the score. The Concordance probability estimation of the CRS was 0.73 in the derivation cohort and 0.71 in the validation cohort. The correlation between observed and expected 1-year waitlist mortality in the validation cohort was 0.87. The candidate risk score provides an accurate objective prediction of waitlist mortality. It is currently being used to develop a modified cardiac allocation system in France.

Additive genetic risk from five serotonin system polymorphisms interacts with interpersonal stress to predict depression.

PubMed

Vrshek-Schallhorn, Suzanne; Stroud, Catherine B; Mineka, Susan; Zinbarg, Richard E; Adam, Emma K; Redei, Eva E; Hammen, Constance; Craske, Michelle G

2015-11-01

Behavioral genetic research supports polygenic models of depression in which many genetic variations each contribute a small amount of risk, and prevailing diathesis-stress models suggest gene-environment interactions (G×E). Multilocus profile scores of additive risk offer an approach that is consistent with polygenic models of depression risk. In a first demonstration of this approach in a G×E predicting depression, we created an additive multilocus profile score from 5 serotonin system polymorphisms (1 each in the genes HTR1A, HTR2A, HTR2C, and 2 in TPH2). Analyses focused on 2 forms of interpersonal stress as environmental risk factors. Using 5 years of longitudinal diagnostic and life stress interviews from 387 emerging young adults in the Youth Emotion Project, survival analyses show that this multilocus profile score interacts with major interpersonal stressful life events to predict major depressive episode onsets (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.815, p = .007). Simultaneously, there was a significant protective effect of the profile score without a recent event (HR = 0.83, p = .030). The G×E effect with interpersonal chronic stress was not significant (HR = 1.15, p = .165). Finally, effect sizes for genetic factors examined ignoring stress suggested such an approach could lead to overlooking or misinterpreting genetic effects. Both the G×E effect and the protective simple main effect were replicated in a sample of early adolescent girls (N = 105). We discuss potential benefits of the multilocus genetic profile score approach and caveats for future research. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Differential diagnosis between benign and malignant soft tissue tumors utilizing ultrasound parameters.

PubMed

Morii, Takeshi; Kishino, Tomonori; Shimamori, Naoko; Motohashi, Mitsue; Ohnishi, Hiroaki; Honya, Keita; Aoyagi, Takayuki; Tajima, Takashi; Ichimura, Shoichi

2018-01-01

Preoperative discrimination between benign and malignant soft tissue tumors is critical for the prevention of excess application of magnetic resonance imaging and biopsy as well as unplanned resection. Although ultrasound, including power Doppler imaging, is an easy, noninvasive, and cost-effective modality for screening soft tissue tumors, few studies have investigated reliable discrimination between benign and malignant soft tissue tumors. To establish a modality for discrimination between benign and malignant soft tissue tumors using ultrasound, we extracted the significant risk factors for malignancy based on ultrasound information from 40 malignant and 56 benign pathologically diagnosed soft tissue tumors and established a scoring system based on these risk factors. The maximum size, tumor margin, and vascularity evaluated using ultrasound were extracted as significant risk factors. Using the odds ratio from a multivariate regression model, a scoring system was established. Receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed a high area under the curve value (0.85), confirming the accuracy of the scoring system. Ultrasound is a useful modality for establishing the differential diagnosis between benign and malignant soft tissue tumors.

The significance of OLGA and OLGIM staging systems in the risk assessment of gastric cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yue, Hu; Shan, Liu; Bin, Lv

2018-02-19

Despite extensive research on the criteria for the assessment of gastric cancer risk using the Operative Link on Gastritis Assessment (OLGA) and Operative Link on Gastritis/Intestinal-Metaplasia Assessment (OLGIM) systems, no comprehensive overview or systematic summary on their use is currently available. To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the efficacy of the OLGA and OLGIM staging systems in evaluating gastric cancer risk. We searched various databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Medline, and Cochrane's library, for articles published before March 2017 on the association between OLGA/OLGIM stages and risk of gastric cancer. Statistical analysis was performed using RevMan 5.30 and Stata 14.0, with the odds ratio, risk ratio, and 95% confidence interval as the effect measures. A meta-analysis of six case-control studies and two cohort studies, comprising 2700 subjects, was performed. The meta-analysis of prospective case-control studies demonstrated a significant association between the OLGA/OLGIM stages III/IV and gastric cancer. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) score reflected heterogeneity in the case-control studies on OLGA. Subgroup analysis of high-quality (NOS score ≥ 5) studies showed an association between OLGA stage III/IV and increased risk of gastric cancer; the association was also high in the remaining study with low NOS score. The association between higher stages of gastritis defined by OLGA and risk of gastric cancer was significant. This correlation implies that close and frequent monitoring of such high-risk patients is necessary to facilitate timely diagnosis of gastric cancer.

Whole-Body MR Imaging Including Angiography: Predicting Recurrent Events in Diabetics.

PubMed

Bertheau, Robert C; Bamberg, Fabian; Lochner, Elena; Findeisen, Hannes M; Parhofer, Klaus G; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Schoenberg, Stefan O; Weckbach, Sabine; Schlett, Christopher L

2016-05-01

Whether whole-body MRI can predict occurrence of recurrent events in patients with diabetes mellitus. Whole-body MRI was prospectively applied to 61 diabetics and assessed for arteriosclerosis and ischemic cerebral/myocardial changes. Occurrence of cardiocerebral events and diabetic comorbidites was determined. Patients were stratified whether no, a single or recurrent events arose. As a secondary endpoint, events were stratified into organ system-specific groups. During a median follow-up of 70 months, 26 diabetics developed a total of 39 events; 18 (30%) developed one, 8 (13%) recurrent events. Between diabetics with no, a single and recurrent events, a stepwise higher burden was observed for presence of left ventricular (LV) hypo-/akinesia (3/28/75%, p < 0.0001), myocardial delayed-contrast-enhancement (17/33/63%, p = 0.001), carotid artery stenosis (11/17/63%, p = 0.005), peripheral artery stenosis (26/56/88%, p = 0.0006) and vessel score (1.00/1.30/1.76, p < 0.0001). After adjusting for clinical characteristics, LV hypo-/akinesia (hazard rate ratio = 6.57, p < 0.0001) and vessel score (hazard rate ratio = 12.29, p < 0.0001) remained independently associated. Assessing organ system risk, cardiac and cerebral MR findings predicted more strongly events in their respective organ system. Vessel-score predicted both cardiac and cerebral, but not non-cardiocerebral, events. Whole-body MR findings predict occurrence of recurrent events in diabetics independent of clinical characteristics, and may concurrently provide organ system-specific risk. • Patients with long-standing diabetes mellitus are at high risk for recurrent events. • Whole-body MRI predicts occurrence of recurrent events independently of clinical characteristics. • The vessel score derived from whole-body angiography is a good general risk-marker. • Whole-body MRI may also provide organ-specific risk assessment. • Current findings may indicate benefits of whole-body MRI for risk stratification.

Low-Carbohydrate-Diet Score and its Association with the Risk of Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies.

PubMed

Namazi, Nazli; Larijani, Bagher; Azadbakht, Leila

2017-08-01

The association between a low-carbohydrate diet (LCD) score and the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) is contradictory. This study is a systemic review of cohort studies that have focused on the association between the LCD score and DM. We searched PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Embase, ISI Web of Science, and Google Scholar for papers published through January 2017 with no language restrictions. Cohort studies that reported relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for DM were included. Finally, 4 studies were considered for our meta-analysis. The total number of participants ranged from 479 to 85 059. Among 4 cohort studies, 8 081 cases with DM were observed over follow-up durations ranging from 3.6 to 20 years. A marginal significant association was observed between the highest LCD score and the risk of DM (RR=1.17; 95% CI: 0.9, 1.51). Moreover, the RRs for studies with energy adjustments showed a significant association (RR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.49; I 2 : 0%). Based on our findings, study qualities score of less or equal to 7 had a significant influence on the pooled effect size (RR=1.31, 95%CI: 1.15, 1.49; I 2 : 0%), whereas the overall RR in the studies with quality score more than 7 was 1.09 (95% CI: 0.73, 1.63). In conclusion, we have found that the highest LCD score was marginally associated with the risk of DM. However, more prospective cohort studies are needed to clarify the effects of the LCD score on the risk of DM. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Quality of anaesthesia-related information accessed via Internet searches.

PubMed

Caron, S; Berton, J; Beydon, L

2007-08-01

We conducted a study to examine the quality and stability of information available from the Internet on four anaesthesia-related topics. In January 2006, we searched using four key words (porphyria, scleroderma, transfusion risk, and epidural analgesia risk) with five search engines (Google, HotBot, AltaVista, Excite, and Yahoo). We used a published scoring system (NetScoring) to evaluate the first 15 sites identified by each of these 20 searches. We also used a simple four-point scale to assess the first 100 sites in the Google search on one of our four topics ('epidural analgesia risk'). In November 2006, we conducted a second evaluation, using three search engines (Google, AltaVista, and Yahoo) with 14 synonyms for 'epidural analgesia risk'. The five search engines performed similarly. NetScoring scores were lower for transfusion risk (P < 0.001). One or more high-quality sites was identified consistently among the first 15 sites in each search. Quality scored using the simple scale correlated closely with medical content and design by NetScoring and with the number of references (P < 0.05). Synonyms of 'epidural analgesia risk' yielded similar results. The quality of accessed information improved somewhat over the 11 month period with Yahoo and AltaVista, but declined with Google. The Internet is a valuable tool for obtaining medical information, but the quality of websites varies between different topics. A simple rating scale may facilitate the quality scoring on individual websites. Differences in precise search terms used for a given topic did not appear to affect the quality of the information obtained.

[Comparison of predictive factors related to the mortality and rebleeding caused by variceal bleeding: Child-Pugh score, MELD score, and Rockall score].

PubMed

Lee, Ja Young; Lee, Jin Heon; Kim, Soo Jin; Choi, Dae Rho; Kim, Kyung Ho; Kim, Yong Bum; Kim, Hak Yang; Yoo, Jae Young

2002-12-01

The first episode of variceal bleeding is one of the most frequent causes of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. The Child-Pugh(CP) scoring system has been widely accepted for prognostic assessment. Recently, MELD has been known to be better than the CP scoring system for predicting mortality in patients with end-stage liver diseases. The Rockall risk scoring system was developed to predict the outcome of upper GI bleeding including variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to investigate the mortality rate of first variceal bleeding and the predictability of each scoring system. We evaluated the 6-week mortality rate, rebleeding rate, and 1-year mortality rate of all the 136 patients with acute variceal bleeding without previous episode of hemorrhage between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2000. The CP score, MELD score, and Rockall score were estimated and analyzed. Among 136 patients, 35 patients with hepatoma and 8 patients with follow-up loss were excluded. Six-week mortality rate, 1-year mortality rate, and rebleeding rate of first variceal bleeding were 24.7%, 35.5%, and 12.9%, respectively. The c-statistics of CP, MELD, and Rockall score for predicting 6-week mortality rate were 0.809 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.720-0.898), 0.804 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.696-0.911), 0.787 (p<0.001, 95% CI, 0.683-0.890), respectively. For 1-year mortality rate, c-statistics were 0.765 (p<0.005, 95% CI, 0.665-0.865), 0.780 (p<0.005, 95% CI, 0.676-0.883), 0.730 (p<0.01, 95% CI, 0.627-0.834), respectively. The CP, MELD, and Rockall scores were reliable measures of mortality risk in patients with first variceal bleeding. The CP classification is useful in its easy applicability.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: a proposal of a prognostic scoring system.

PubMed

Iwatsuki, S; Dvorchik, I; Marsh, J W; Madariaga, J R; Carr, B; Fung, J J; Starzl, T E

2000-10-01

The current staging system of hepatocellular carcinoma established by the International Union Against Cancer and the American Joint Committee on Cancer does not necessarily predict the outcomes after hepatic resection or transplantation. Various clinical and pathologic risk factors for tumor recurrence were examined on 344 consecutive patients who received hepatic transplantation in the presence of nonfibrolamellar hepatocellular carcinoma to establish a reliable risk scoring system. Multivariate analysis identified three factors as independently significant poor prognosticators: 1) bilobarly distributed tumors, 2) size of the greatest tumor (2 to 5 cm and > 5 cm), and 3) vascular invasion (microscopic and macroscopic). Prognostic risk score (PRS) of each patient was calculated from the relative risks of multivariate analysis. The patients were grouped into five grades of tumor recurrence risk: grade 1: PRS = 0 to < 7.5; grade 2: PRS = 7.5 to < or = 11.0; grade 3: PRS > 11.0 to 15.0; grade 4: PRS > or = 15.0; and grade 5: positive node, metastasis, or margin. The proposed PRS system correlated extremely well with tumor-free survival after liver transplantation (100%, 61%, 40%, 5%, and 0%, from grades 1 to 5, respectively, at 5 years), but current pTNM staging did not. 1) Patients with grades 1 and 2 are effectively treated with liver transplantation, 2) patients with grades 4 and 5 are poor candidates for liver transplantation, and 3) patients with grade 1 do not benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

Practical prognostic index for patients with metastatic recurrent breast cancer: retrospective analysis of 2,322 patients from the GEICAM Spanish El Alamo Register.

PubMed

Puente, Javier; López-Tarruella, Sara; Ruiz, Amparo; Lluch, Ana; Pastor, Miguel; Alba, Emilio; de la Haba, Juan; Ramos, Manuel; Cirera, Luis; Antón, Antonio; Llombart, Antoni; Plazaola, Arrate; Fernández-Aramburo, Antonio; Sastre, Javier; Díaz-Rubio, Eduardo; Martin, Miguel

2010-07-01

Women with recurrent metastatic breast cancer from a Spanish hospital registry (El Alamo, GEICAM) were analyzed in order to identify the most helpful prognostic factors to predict survival and to ultimately construct a practical prognostic index. The inclusion criteria covered women patients diagnosed with operable invasive breast cancer who had metastatic recurrence between 1990 and 1997 in GEICAM hospitals. Patients with stage IV breast cancer at initial diagnosis or with isolated loco-regional recurrence were excluded from this analysis. Data from 2,322 patients with recurrent breast cancer after primary treatment (surgery, radiation and systemic adjuvant treatment) were used to construct the prognostic index. The prognostic index score for each individual patient was calculated by totalling up the scores of each independent variable. The maximum score obtainable was 26.1. Nine-hundred and sixty-two patients who had complete data for all the variables were used in the computation of the prognostic index score. We were able to stratify them into three prognostic groups based on the prognostic index score: 322 patients in the good risk group (score < or =13.5), 308 patients in the intermediate risk group (score 13.51-15.60) and 332 patients in the poor risk group (score > or =15.61). The median survivals for these groups were 3.69, 2.27 and 1.02 years, respectively (P < 0.0001). In conclusion, risk scores are extraordinarily valuable tools, highly recommendable in the clinical practice.

[Screening of malnutrition risk versus indicators of nutritional status and systemic inflammatory response in newly diagnosed lung cancer patients].

PubMed

Illa, P; Tomíšková, M; Skřičková, J

2014-01-01

Most lung cancers are already advanced at the time of dia-gnosis. In these patients, a frequent symptom is protein energy malnutrition, often diagnosed prior to oncological treatment. Malnutrition results in poor tolerance of treatment and increased morbidity and mortality. Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002 adapted for oncological patients was used to assess the risk of undernutrition in a group of 188 lung cancer patients. The risk was evaluated on a 6- point scale according to common signs of nutritional status and tumor and its treatment risk factors. A score of 3 and more (called "nutritional risk") means a significant risk of malnutrition. Furthermore, pretreatment nutritional characteristics were evaluated in patients (including the value of BMI) and laboratory values indicating malnutrition/ acute phase response (albumin/ C reactive protein - CRP). Acceptable NRS score was found in 50.6%, while in 45.3% was suggested into risk of malnutrition ("nutritional risk"). Only 6.6% of our patients had a BMI less than 20 kg/ m2. Significant differences in albumin and CRP values in various categories of NRS were confirmed. Initial signs of cancer malnutrition may be overlooked in patients who fall within or above the range of BMI for adequate weight, although these patients may be at significant risk of malnutrition. The indicators of nutritional status and systemic inflammatory responses were significantly associated with resulting values NRS score.

A novel early risk assessment tool for detecting clinical outcomes in patients with heat-related illness (J-ERATO score): Development and validation in independent cohorts in Japan.

PubMed

Hayashida, Kei; Kondo, Yutaka; Hifumi, Toru; Shimazaki, Junya; Oda, Yasutaka; Shiraishi, Shinichiro; Fukuda, Tatsuma; Sasaki, Junichi; Shimizu, Keiki

2018-01-01

We sought to develop a novel risk assessment tool to predict the clinical outcomes after heat-related illness. Prospective, multicenter observational study. Patients who transferred to emergency hospitals in Japan with heat-related illness were registered. The sample was divided into two parts: 60% to construct the score and 40% to validate it. A binary logistic regression model was used to predict hospital admission as a primary outcome. The resulting model was transformed into a scoring system. A total of 3,001 eligible patients were analyzed. There was no difference in variables between development and validation cohorts. Based on the result of a logistic regression model in the development phase (n = 1,805), the J-ERATO score was defined as the sum of the six binary components in the prehospital setting (respiratory rate≥22 /min, Glasgow coma scale<15, systolic blood pressure≤100 mmHg, heart rate≥100 bpm, body temperature≥38°C, and age≥65 y), for a total score ranging from 0 to 6. In the validation phase (n = 1,196), the score had excellent discrimination (C-statistic 0.84; 95% CI 0.79-0.89, p<0.0001) and calibration (P>0.2 by Hosmer-Lemeshow test). The observed proportion of hospital admission increased with increasing J-ERATO score (score = 0, 5.0%; score = 1, 15.0%; score = 2, 24.6%; score = 3, 38.6%; score = 4, 68.0%; score = 5, 85.2%; score = 6, 96.4%). Multivariate analyses showed that the J-ERATO score was an independent positive predictor of hospital admission (adjusted OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.06-2.87; P<0.001), intensive care unit (ICU) admission (3.73; 2.95-4.72; P<0.001) and in-hospital mortality (1.65; 1.18-2.32; P = 0.004). The J-ERATO score is simply assessed and can facilitate the identification of patients with higher risk of heat-related hospitalization. This scoring system is also significantly associated with the higher likelihood of ICU admission and in-hospital mortality after heat-related hospitalization.

Improving the clinical management of women with borderline tumours: a recurrence risk scoring system from a French multicentre study.

PubMed

Ouldamer, L; Bendifallah, S; Nikpayam, M; Body, G; Fritel, X; Uzan, C; Morice, P; Daraï, E; Ballester, M

2017-05-01

To develop a risk scoring system (RSS) for predicting recurrence in women with borderline ovarian tumours (BOTs). Cohort study of women with BOTs. French multicentre tertiary care centres. A cohort of 360 women with BOTs who received primary surgical treatment between January 2000 and December 2013. Clinical and pathological factors affecting recurrence in women with BOTs. The development of a model for the prediction of recurrence in women with BOTs. Overall the recurrence rate was 20.0% (72/360). Recurrence was associated with five variables: age < 45 years; preoperative serum tumour marker CA125 > 150 IU/mL; a serous histological subtype; International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage other than IA; and ovarian surgery other than bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (BSO; i.e. cystectomy and unilateral salpingo-oophorectomy). These variables were included in the RSS and assigned scores ranging from 0 to 6. The discrimination of the RSS was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 95% CI 0.79-0.85). A total score of 8 points corresponded to the optimal threshold of the RSS, with a rate of recurrence of 11.8% (35/297) and 58.7% (37/63) for women at low risk (<8 points) and women at high risk (≥8 points), respectively. The diagnostic accuracy was 85.0%. This study shows that the risk of BOT recurrence can be accurately predicted so that women at high risk can benefit from adapted surgical treatment. Our RSS permitted women with BOTs at low risk to be distinguished from women with BOTs at high risk of recurrence. © 2017 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

External Validation of the Simple Clinical Score and the HOTEL Score, Two Scores for Predicting Short-Term Mortality after Admission to an Acute Medical Unit

PubMed Central

Stræde, Mia; Brabrand, Mikkel

2014-01-01

Background Clinical scores can be of aid to predict early mortality after admission to a medical admission unit. A developed scoring system needs to be externally validated to minimise the risk of the discriminatory power and calibration to be falsely elevated. We performed the present study with the objective of validating the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and the HOTEL score, two existing risk stratification systems that predict mortality for medical patients based solely on clinical information, but not only vital signs. Methods Pre-planned prospective observational cohort study. Setting Danish 460-bed regional teaching hospital. Findings We included 3046 consecutive patients from 2 October 2008 until 19 February 2009. 26 (0.9%) died within one calendar day and 196 (6.4%) died within 30 days. We calculated SCS for 1080 patients. We found an AUROC of 0.960 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.932 to 0.988) for 24-hours mortality and 0.826 (95% CI, 0.774–0.879) for 30-day mortality, and goodness-of-fit test, χ2 = 2.68 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.998 and χ2 = 4.00, P = 0.947, respectively. We included 1470 patients when calculating the HOTEL score. Discriminatory power (AUROC) was 0.931 (95% CI, 0.901–0.962) for 24-hours mortality and goodness-of-fit test, χ2 = 5.56 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.234. Conclusion We find that both the SCS and HOTEL scores showed an excellent to outstanding ability in identifying patients at high risk of dying with good or acceptable precision. PMID:25144186

The Role of Scoring Systems and Urine Dipstick in Prediction of Rhabdomyolysis-induced Acute Kidney Injury: a Systematic Review.

PubMed

Safari, Saeed; Yousefifard, Mahmoud; Hashemi, Behrooz; Baratloo, Alireza; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Mehdi; Rahmati, Farhad; Motamedi, Maryam; Najafi, Iraj

2016-05-01

During the past decade, using serum biomarkers and clinical decision rules for early prediction of rhabdomyolysis-induced acute kidney injury (AKI) has received much attention from researchers. This study aimed to broadly review the value of scoring systems and urine dipstick in prediction of rhabdomyolysis-induced AKI. The study was designed based on the guidelines of the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology statement. Search was done in electronic databases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and Google Scholar by 2 independent reviewers. Studies evaluating AKI risk factors in rhabdomyolysis patients with the aim of developing a scoring model as well as those assessing the role of urine dipstick in these patients were included. Of the 5997 articles found, 143 were potentially relevant studies. After studying their full texts, 6 articles were entered into the systematic review. Two studies had developed or validated scoring systems of the "rule of thumb," and the AKI index, and the Mangled Extremity Severity Score. Four studies were on the predictive value of urine dipstick in risk prediction of rhabdomyolysis-induced AKI, with favorable results. The findings of this systematic review showed that based on the available resources, using the prediction rules and urine dipstick could be considered as valuable screening tools for detection of patients at risk for AKI following rhabdomyolysis. Yet, the external validity of the mentioned tools should be assessed before their general application in routine practice.

Combining the ASA Physical Classification System and Continuous Intraoperative Surgical Apgar Score Measurement in Predicting Postoperative Risk.

PubMed

Jering, Monika Zdenka; Marolen, Khensani N; Shotwell, Matthew S; Denton, Jason N; Sandberg, Warren S; Ehrenfeld, Jesse Menachem

2015-11-01

The surgical Apgar score predicts major 30-day postoperative complications using data assessed at the end of surgery. We hypothesized that evaluating the surgical Apgar score continuously during surgery may identify patients at high risk for postoperative complications. We retrospectively identified general, vascular, and general oncology patients at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Logistic regression methods were used to construct a series of predictive models in order to continuously estimate the risk of major postoperative complications, and to alert care providers during surgery should the risk exceed a given threshold. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of a model utilizing a continuously measured surgical Apgar score relative to models that use only preoperative clinical factors or continuously monitored individual constituents of the surgical Apgar score (i.e. heart rate, blood pressure, and blood loss). AUROC estimates were validated internally using a bootstrap method. 4,728 patients were included. Combining the ASA PS classification with continuously measured surgical Apgar score demonstrated improved discriminative ability (AUROC 0.80) in the pooled cohort compared to ASA (0.73) and the surgical Apgar score alone (0.74). To optimize the tradeoff between inadequate and excessive alerting with future real-time notifications, we recommend a threshold probability of 0.24. Continuous assessment of the surgical Apgar score is predictive for major postoperative complications. In the future, real-time notifications might allow for detection and mitigation of changes in a patient's accumulating risk of complications during a surgical procedure.

Medical devices; ovarian adnexal mass assessment score test system; labeling; black box restrictions. Final rule.

PubMed

2011-12-30

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is amending the regulation classifying ovarian adnexal mass assessment score test systems to restrict these devices so that a prescribed warning statement that addresses a risk identified in the special controls guidance document must be in a black box and must appear in all labeling, advertising, and promotional material. The black box warning mitigates the risk to health associated with off-label use as a screening test, stand-alone diagnostic test, or as a test to determine whether or not to proceed with surgery.

Predictors of heart failure in patients with stable coronary artery disease: a PEACE study.

PubMed

Lewis, Eldrin F; Solomon, Scott D; Jablonski, Kathleen A; Rice, Madeline Murguia; Clemenza, Francesco; Hsia, Judith; Maggioni, Aldo P; Zabalgoitia, Miguel; Huynh, Thao; Cuddy, Thomas E; Gersh, Bernard J; Rouleau, Jean; Braunwald, Eugene; Pfeffer, Marc A

2009-05-01

Heart failure (HF) is a disease commonly associated with coronary artery disease. Most risk models for HF development have focused on patients with acute myocardial infarction. The Prevention of Events with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibition population enabled the development of a risk model to predict HF in patients with stable coronary artery disease and preserved ejection fraction. In the 8290, Prevention of Events with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibition patients without preexisting HF, new-onset HF hospitalizations, and fatal HF were assessed over a median follow-up of 4.8 years. Covariates were evaluated and maintained in the Cox regression multivariable model using backward selection if P<0.05. A risk score was developed and converted to an integer-based scoring system. Among the Prevention of Events with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibition population (age, 64+/-8; female, 18%; prior myocardial infarction, 55%), there were 268 cases of fatal and nonfatal HF. Twelve characteristics were associated with increased risk of HF along with several baseline medications, including older age, history of hypertension, and diabetes. Randomization to trandolapril independently reduced the risk of HF. There was no interaction between trandolapril treatment and other risk factors for HF. The risk score (range, 0 to 21) demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (c-statistic 0.80). Risk of HF ranged from 1.75% in patients with a risk score of 0% to 33% in patients with risk score >or=16. Among patients with stable coronary artery disease and preserved ejection fraction, traditional and newer factors were independently associated with increased risk of HF. Trandolopril decreased the risk of HF in these patients with preserved ejection fraction.

The risk assessment score in acute whiplash injury predicts outcome and reflects biopsychosocial factors.

PubMed

Kasch, Helge; Qerama, Erisela; Kongsted, Alice; Bach, Flemming W; Bendix, Tom; Jensen, Troels S

2011-12-01

One-year prospective study of 141 acute whiplash patients (WLP) and 40 acute ankle-injured controls. This study investigates a priori determined potential risk factors to develop a risk assessment tool, for which the expediency was examined. The whiplash-associated disorders (WAD) grading system that emerged from The Quebec Task-Force-on-Whiplash has been of limited value for predicting work-related recovery and for explaining biopsychosocial disability after whiplash and new predictive factors, for example, risk criteria that comprehensively differentiate acute WLP in a biopsychosocial manner are needed. Consecutively, 141 acute WLP and 40 ankle-injured recruited from emergency units were examined after 1 week, 1, 3, 6, and 12 months obtaining neck/head visual analog scale score, number of nonpainful complaints, epidemiological, social, psychological data and neurological examination, active neck mobility, and furthermore muscle tenderness and pain response, and strength and duration of neck muscles. Risk factors derived (reduced cervical range of motion, intense neck pain/headache, multiple nonpain complaints) were applied in a risk assessment score and divided into seven risk strata. A receiver operating characteristics curve for the Risk Assessment Score and 1-year work disability showed an area of 0.90. Risk strata and number of sick days showed a log-linear relationship. In stratum 1 full recovery was encountered, but for high-risk patients in stratum 6 only 50% and 7 only 20% had returned to work after 1 year (P < 5.4 × 10). Strength measures, psychophysical pain measurements, and psychological and social data (reported elsewhere) showed significant relation to risk strata. The Risk Assessment score is suggested as a valuable tool for grading WLP early after injury. It has reasonable screening power for encountering work disability and reflects the biopsychosocial nature of whiplash injuries.

Impact of Chronic Glucocorticoid Treatment on Cardiovascular Risk Profile in Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

PubMed

Moya, Fernando Briceño; Pineda Galindo, Luis Francisco; García de la Peña, Maximiliano

2016-01-01

Systemic lupus erythematosus is highly associated with premature atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events. The origin of this subclinical atherosclerosis has been attributed mainly to the inflammatory nature of the disease. To assess the effect of long-term use of glucocorticoids on cardiovascular risk in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. We conducted a registry-based retrospective cohort study. We determined 2 periods: (1) Time 0, that is, time of diagnosis and (2) time 1, that is, when the study was finalized. At both times, the cardiovascular risk was evaluated using the Framingham scale and their scores were compared. Afterward, the change magnitude between the 2 times was evaluated and associated with the cumulative glucocorticoids dose. One hundred one patients were included. The mean ± SD age was 26.5 ± 5 years. Length of disease evolution was of 7.8 ± 4.9 years. There was an 8-point increase in the Framingham score, from -8.1 ± 4 to 0.8 ± 7; P < 0.0001. The correlation between the magnitude of the increase in Framingham score and their corresponding cumulative dose showed a coefficient of 0.88; P < 0.001. The glucocorticoids are a primary factor that influences cardiovascular risk. There is a directly proportional relationship between the cumulative glucocorticoid dose and the increase in cardiovascular risk.

Adding A Measure Of Patient Self-Management Capability To Risk Assessment Can Improve Prediction Of High Costs.

PubMed

Hibbard, Judith H; Greene, Jessica; Sacks, Rebecca; Overton, Valerie; Parrotta, Carmen D

2016-03-01

We explored whether supplementing a clinical risk score with a behavioral measure could improve targeting of the patients most in need of supports that reduce their risk of costly service utilization. Using data from a large health system that determines patient self-management capability using the Patient Activation Measure, we examined utilization of hospital and emergency department care by the 15 percent of patients with the highest clinical risk scores. After controlling for risk scores and placing patients within segments based on their level of activation in 2011, we found that the lower the activation level, the higher the utilization and cost of hospital services in each of the following three years. These findings demonstrate that adding a measure of patient self-management capability to a risk assessment can improve prediction of high care costs and inform actions to better meet patient needs. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

The Zhongshan Score

PubMed Central

Zhou, Lin; Guo, Jianming; Wang, Hang; Wang, Guomin

2015-01-01

Abstract In the zero ischemia era of nephron-sparing surgery (NSS), a new anatomic classification system (ACS) is needed to adjust to these new surgical techniques. We devised a novel and simple ACS, and compared it with the RENAL and PADUA scores to predict the risk of NSS outcomes. We retrospectively evaluated 789 patients who underwent NSS with available imaging between January 2007 and July 2014. Demographic and clinical data were assessed. The Zhongshan (ZS) score consisted of three parameters. RENAL, PADUA, and ZS scores are divided into three groups, that is, high, moderate, and low scores. For operative time (OT), significant differences were seen between any two groups of ZS score and PADUA score (all P < 0.05). For ZS score, patients with moderate and high scores had longer warm ischemia time (WIT) and greater increase in SCr compared with low score (all P < 0.05). What is more, the differences between moderate and high scores classified by ZS score were borderline but trending toward significance in WIT (P = 0.064) and increase in SCr (P = 0.052). Interestingly, RENAL showed no significant difference between moderate and high complexity in OT, WIT, estimated blood loss, and increase in SCr. Compared with patients with a low score of ZS, those with a high or moderate score had 8.1-fold or 3.3-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). As for RENAL score, patients with a high or moderate score had 5.7-fold or 1.9-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). Patients with a high or moderate score of PADUA had 2.3-fold or 2.8-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P < 0.05). In the ROC curve analysis, ZS score had the greatest AUC for surgical complications (AUC = 0.632) and the conversion to radical nephrectomy (AUC = 0.845) (all P < 0.05). In conclusion, the ability of ZS score to predict the surgical complexity and surgical complications of NSS is better than RENAL and PADUA scores. ZS score could be used to reflect the surgical complexity and predict the risk of surgical complications in patients undergoing NSS. PMID:25654399

The UK-PBC risk scores: Derivation and validation of a scoring system for long-term prediction of end-stage liver disease in primary biliary cholangitis.

PubMed

Carbone, Marco; Sharp, Stephen J; Flack, Steve; Paximadas, Dimitrios; Spiess, Kelly; Adgey, Carolyn; Griffiths, Laura; Lim, Reyna; Trembling, Paul; Williamson, Kate; Wareham, Nick J; Aldersley, Mark; Bathgate, Andrew; Burroughs, Andrew K; Heneghan, Michael A; Neuberger, James M; Thorburn, Douglas; Hirschfield, Gideon M; Cordell, Heather J; Alexander, Graeme J; Jones, David E J; Sandford, Richard N; Mells, George F

2016-03-01

The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mossahebi, S; Feigenberg, S; Nichols, E

Purpose: GammaPod™, the first stereotactic radiotherapy device for early stage breast cancer treatment, has been recently installed and commissioned at our institution. A multidisciplinary working group applied the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) approach to perform a risk analysis. Methods: FMEA was applied to the GammaPod™ treatment process by: 1) generating process maps for each stage of treatment; 2) identifying potential failure modes and outlining their causes and effects; 3) scoring the potential failure modes using the risk priority number (RPN) system based on the product of severity, frequency of occurrence, and detectability (ranging 1–10). An RPN of highermore » than 150 was set as the threshold for minimal concern of risk. For these high-risk failure modes, potential quality assurance procedures and risk control techniques have been proposed. A new set of severity, occurrence, and detectability values were re-assessed in presence of the suggested mitigation strategies. Results: In the single-day image-and-treat workflow, 19, 22, and 27 sub-processes were identified for the stages of simulation, treatment planning, and delivery processes, respectively. During the simulation stage, 38 potential failure modes were found and scored, in terms of RPN, in the range of 9-392. 34 potential failure modes were analyzed in treatment planning with a score range of 16-200. For the treatment delivery stage, 47 potential failure modes were found with an RPN score range of 16-392. The most critical failure modes consisted of breast-cup pressure loss and incorrect target localization due to patient upper-body alignment inaccuracies. The final RPN score of these failure modes based on recommended actions were assessed to be below 150. Conclusion: FMEA risk analysis technique was applied to the treatment process of GammaPod™, a new stereotactic radiotherapy technology. Application of systematic risk analysis methods is projected to lead to improved quality of GammaPod™ treatments. Ying Niu and Cedric Yu are affiliated with Xcision Medical Systems.« less

Oral Hygiene and Cardiometabolic Disease Risk in the Survey of the Health of Wisconsin

PubMed Central

VanWormer, Jeffrey J.; Acharya, Amit; Greenlee, Robert T.; Nieto, F. Javier

2012-01-01

Objectives Poor oral health is an increasingly recognized risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D), but little is known about the association between toothbrushing or flossing and cardiometabolic disease risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the degree to which an oral hygiene index was associated with CVD and T2D risk scores among disease-free adults in the Survey of the Health of Wisconsin. Methods All variables were measured in 2008–2010 in this cross-sectional design. Based on toothbrushing and flossing frequency, and oral hygiene index (poor, fair, good, excellent) was created as the primary predictor variable. The outcomes, CVD and T2D risk score, were based on previous estimates from large cohort studies. There were 712 and 296 individuals with complete data available for linear regression analyses in the CVD and T2D samples, respectively. Results After covariate adjustment, the final model indicated that participants in the excellent (β±SE=−0.019±0.008, p=0.020) oral hygiene category had a significantly lower CVD risk score as compared to participants in the poor oral hygiene category. Sensitivity analyses indicated that both toothbrushing and flossing were independently associated with CVD risk score, and various modifiable risk factors. Oral hygiene was not significantly associated with T2D risk score. Conclusions Regular toothbrushing and flossing are associated with a more favorable CVD risk profile, but more experimental research is needed in this area to precisely determine the effects of various oral self-care maintenance behaviors on the control of individual cardiometabolic risk factors. These findings may inform future joint medical-dental initiatives designed to close gaps in the primary prevention of oral and systemic diseases. PMID:23106415

Derivation and validation of a diagnostic score based on case-mix groups to predict 30-day death or urgent readmission.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl; Wong, Jenna; Forster, Alan J

2012-01-01

Between 5% and 10% of patients die or are urgently readmitted within 30 days of discharge from hospital. Readmission risk indexes have either excluded acute diagnoses or modelled them as multiple distinct variables. In this study, we derived and validated a score summarizing the influence of acute hospital diagnoses and procedures on death or urgent readmission within 30 days. From population-based hospital abstracts in Ontario, we randomly sampled 200 000 discharges between April 2003 and March 2009 and determined who had been readmitted urgently or died within 30 days of discharge. We used generalized estimating equation modelling, with a sample of 100 000 patients, to measure the adjusted association of various case-mix groups (CMGs-homogenous groups of acute care inpatients with similar clinical and resource-utilization characteristics) with 30-day death or urgent readmission. This final model was transformed into a scoring system that was validated in the remaining 100 000 patients. Patients in the derivation set belonged to 1 of 506 CMGs and had a 6.8% risk of 30-day death or urgent readmission. Forty-seven CMG codes (more than half of which were directly related to chronic diseases) were independently associated with this outcome, which led to a CMG score that ranged from -6 to 7 points. The CMG score was significantly associated with 30-day death or urgent readmission (unadjusted odds ratio for a 1-point increase in CMG score 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49-1.56). Alone, the CMG score was only moderately discriminative (C statistic 0.650, 95% CI 0.644-0.656). However, when the CMG score was added to a validated risk index for death or readmission, the C statistic increased to 0.759 (95% CI 0.753-0.765). The CMG score was well calibrated for 30-day death or readmission. In this study, we developed a scoring system for acute hospital diagnoses and procedures that could be used as part of a risk-adjustment methodology for analyses of postdischarge outcomes.

Diagnosis of Chronic Pancreatitis Incorporating Endosonographic Features, Demographics, and Behavioral Risk.

PubMed

Lee, Linda S; Tabak, Ying P; Kadiyala, Vivek; Sun, Xiaowu; Suleiman, Shadeah; Johannes, Richard S; Banks, Peter A; Conwell, Darwin L

2017-03-01

Diagnosing chronic pancreatitis remains challenging. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) is utilized to evaluate pancreatic disease. Abnormal pancreas function test is considered the "nonhistologic" criterion standard for chronic pancreatitis. We derived a prediction model for abnormal endoscopic pancreatic function test (ePFT) by enriching EUS findings with patient demographic and pancreatitis behavioral risk characteristics. Demographics, behavioral risk characteristics, EUS findings, and peak bicarbonate results were collected from patients evaluated for pancreatic disease. Abnormal ePFT was defined as peak bicarbonate of less than 75 mEq/L. We fit a logistic regression model and converted it to a risk score system. The risk score was validated using 1000 bootstrap simulations. A total of 176 patients were included; 61% were female with median age of 48 years (interquartile range, 38-57 years). Abnormal ePFT rate was 39.2% (69/176). Four variables formulated the risk score: alcohol or smoking status, number of parenchymal abnormalities, number of ductal abnormalities, and calcifications. Abnormal ePFT occurred in 10.7% with scores 4 or less versus 92.0% scoring 20 or greater. The model C-statistic was 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.85). Number of EUS pancreatic duct and parenchymal abnormalities, presence of calcification, and smoking/alcohol status were predictive of abnormal ePFT. This simple model has good discrimination for ePFT results.

Evaluation of Non-Laboratory and Laboratory Prediction Models for Current and Future Diabetes Mellitus: A Cross-Sectional and Retrospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Hahn, Seokyung; Moon, Min Kyong; Park, Kyong Soo; Cho, Young Min

2016-01-01

Background Various diabetes risk scores composed of non-laboratory parameters have been developed, but only a few studies performed cross-validation of these scores and a comparison with laboratory parameters. We evaluated the performance of diabetes risk scores composed of non-laboratory parameters, including a recently published Korean risk score (KRS), and compared them with laboratory parameters. Methods The data of 26,675 individuals who visited the Seoul National University Hospital Healthcare System Gangnam Center for a health screening program were reviewed for cross-sectional validation. The data of 3,029 individuals with a mean of 6.2 years of follow-up were reviewed for longitudinal validation. The KRS and 16 other risk scores were evaluated and compared with a laboratory prediction model developed by logistic regression analysis. Results For the screening of undiagnosed diabetes, the KRS exhibited a sensitivity of 81%, a specificity of 58%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) of 0.754. Other scores showed AROCs that ranged from 0.697 to 0.782. For the prediction of future diabetes, the KRS exhibited a sensitivity of 74%, a specificity of 54%, and an AROC of 0.696. Other scores had AROCs ranging from 0.630 to 0.721. The laboratory prediction model composed of fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c levels showed a significantly higher AROC (0.838, P < 0.001) than the KRS. The addition of the KRS to the laboratory prediction model increased the AROC (0.849, P = 0.016) without a significant improvement in the risk classification (net reclassification index: 4.6%, P = 0.264). Conclusions The non-laboratory risk scores, including KRS, are useful to estimate the risk of undiagnosed diabetes but are inferior to the laboratory parameters for predicting future diabetes. PMID:27214034

Development of a novel scoring system for identifying emerging chemical risks in the food chain.

PubMed

Oltmanns, J; Licht, O; Bitsch, A; Bohlen, M-L; Escher, S E; Silano, V; MacLeod, M; Serafimova, R; Kass, G E N; Merten, C

2018-02-21

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is responsible for risk assessment of all aspects of food safety, including the establishment of procedures aimed at the identification of emerging risks to food safety. Here, a scoring system was developed for identifying chemicals registered under the European REACH Regulation that could be of potential concern in the food chain using the following parameters: (i) environmental release based on maximum aggregated tonnages and environmental release categories; (ii) biodegradation in the environment; (iii) bioaccumulation and in vivo and in vitro toxicity. The screening approach was tested on 100 data-rich chemicals registered under the REACH Regulation at aggregated volumes of at least 1000 tonnes per annum. The results show that substance-specific data generated under the REACH Regulation can be used to identify potential emerging risks in the food chain. After application of the screening procedure, priority chemicals can be identified as potentially emerging risk chemicals through the integration of exposure, environmental fate and toxicity. The default approach is to generate a single total score for each substance using a predefined weighting scenario. However, it is also possible to use a pivot table approach to combine the individual scores in different ways that reflect user-defined priorities, which enables a very flexible, iterative definition of screening criteria. Possible applications of the approaches are discussed using illustrative examples. Either approach can then be followed by in-depth evaluation of priority substances to ensure the identification of substances that present a real emerging chemical risk in the food chain.

A comparative approach to deep vein thrombosis risk assessment.

PubMed

Hums, Wendy; Blostein, Paul

2006-01-01

Trauma patients are at risk for developing DVT/PE. The Bronson Trauma Model incorporates a DVT scoring system into the daily routine for all injured patients admitted to the Trauma Care Unit. Dr Paul Blostein added the DVT Risk Assessment spreadsheet to his personal digital assistant and made it available to other members of the team to allow calculation of a patient's DVT risk percentage during daily multidisciplinary rounds in the Trauma Care Unit. The Trauma Program has found the incorporation of the scoring systems into the trauma registry to be a value-added component of our performance improvement process. Bronson's unique model of trauma care, where patients are admitted and discharged from the same room, combined with today's technology of wireless laptops and personal digital assistants, promotes a progressive approach to DVT/PE prophylaxis and performance improvement. Our trauma follow-up program has proven to be effective in reintegrating patients back into the trauma system to optimize their functional status and improve their outcome.

The Contribution of Human Factors in Military System Development: Methodological Considerations

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

Risk/Uncertainty Analysis - Project Scoring - Utility Scales - Relevance Tree Techniques (Reverse Factor Analysis) 2. Computer Simulation Simulation...effectiveness of mathematical models for R&D project selection. Management Science, April 1973, 18. 6-43 .1~ *.-. Souder, W.E. h scoring methodology for...per some interval PROFICIENCY test scores (written) RADIATION radiation effects aircrew performance on radiation environments REACTION TIME 1) (time

Comparison of the prognostic utility of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System and the French Prognostic Scoring System in azacitidine-treated patients with myelodysplastic syndromes.

PubMed

Zeidan, Amer M; Lee, Ju-Whei; Prebet, Thomas; Greenberg, Peter; Sun, Zhuoxin; Juckett, Mark; Smith, Mitchell R; Paietta, Elisabeth; Gabrilove, Janice; Erba, Harry P; Tallman, Martin S; Gore, Steven D

2014-08-01

The revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) was developed in a cohort of untreated myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) patients. A French Prognostic Scoring System (FPSS) was recently reported to identify differential survival among azacitidine-treated patients with high-risk MDS. We applied the FPSS and IPSS-R to 150 patients previously randomized to azacitidine monotherapy or a combination of azacitidine with entinostat (a histone deacetylase inhibitor). Neither score predicted response but both discriminated patients with different overall survival (OS; median OS, FPSS: 9·7, 14·7, and 25·3 months, P = 0·018; IPSS-R: 12·5, 11·3, 20·8, and 36 months, P = 0·005). Statistical analysis suggested no improvement in OS prediction for the FPSS over the IPSS-R in azacitidine-treated patients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Scoring system to guide decision making for the use of gentamicin-impregnated collagen sponge to prevent deep sternal wound infection.

PubMed

Benedetto, Umberto; Raja, Shahzad G

2014-11-01

The effectiveness of the routine retrosternal placement of a gentamicin-impregnated collagen sponge (GICS) implant before sternotomy closure is currently a matter of some controversy. We aimed to develop a scoring system to guide decision making for the use of GICS to prevent deep sternal wound infection. Fast backward elimination on predictors, including GICS, was performed using the Lawless and Singhal method. The scoring system was reported as a partial nomogram that can be used to manually obtain predicted individual risk of deep sternal wound infection from the regression model. Bootstrapping validation of the regression models was performed. The final populations consisted of 8750 adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery through full sternotomy during the study period. A total of 329 patients (3.8%) received GICS implant. The overall incidence of deep sternal wound infection was lower among patients who received GICS implant (0.6%) than patients who did not (2.01%) (P=.02). A nomogram to predict the individual risk for deep sternal wound infection was developed that included the use of GICS. Bootstrapping validation confirmed a good discriminative power of the models. The scoring system provides an impartial assessment of the decision-making process for clinicians to establish if GICS implant is effective in reducing the risk for deep sternal wound infection in individual patients undergoing cardiac surgery through full sternotomy. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Derivation and Evaluation of a Risk-Scoring Tool to Predict Participant Attrition in a Lifestyle Intervention Project.

PubMed

Jiang, Luohua; Yang, Jing; Huang, Haixiao; Johnson, Ann; Dill, Edward J; Beals, Janette; Manson, Spero M; Roubideaux, Yvette

2016-05-01

Participant attrition in clinical trials and community-based interventions is a serious, common, and costly problem. In order to develop a simple predictive scoring system that can quantify the risk of participant attrition in a lifestyle intervention project, we analyzed data from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Diabetes Prevention Program (SDPI-DP), an evidence-based lifestyle intervention to prevent diabetes in 36 American Indian and Alaska Native communities. SDPI-DP participants were randomly divided into a derivation cohort (n = 1600) and a validation cohort (n = 801). Logistic regressions were used to develop a scoring system from the derivation cohort. The discriminatory power and calibration properties of the system were assessed using the validation cohort. Seven independent factors predicted program attrition: gender, age, household income, comorbidity, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Six factors predicted long-term attrition: gender, age, marital status, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Each model exhibited moderate to fair discriminatory power (C statistic in the validation set: 0.70 for program attrition, and 0.66 for long-term attrition) and excellent calibration. The resulting scoring system offers a low-technology approach to identify participants at elevated risk for attrition in future similar behavioral modification intervention projects, which may inform appropriate allocation of retention resources. This approach also serves as a model for other efforts to prevent participant attrition.

A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons.

PubMed

Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A

2010-07-01

To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. A longitudinal, community-based study. New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.

Predicting mortality in sick African children: the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) Score.

PubMed

George, Elizabeth C; Walker, A Sarah; Kiguli, Sarah; Olupot-Olupot, Peter; Opoka, Robert O; Engoru, Charles; Akech, Samuel O; Nyeko, Richard; Mtove, George; Reyburn, Hugh; Berkley, James A; Mpoya, Ayub; Levin, Michael; Crawley, Jane; Gibb, Diana M; Maitland, Kathryn; Babiker, Abdel G

2015-07-31

Mortality in paediatric emergency care units in Africa often occurs within the first 24 h of admission and remains high. Alongside effective triage systems, a practical clinical bedside risk score to identify those at greatest risk could contribute to reducing mortality. Data collected during the Fluid As Expansive Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial, a multi-centre trial involving 3,170 severely ill African children, were analysed to identify clinical and laboratory prognostic factors for mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to build a model in this derivation dataset based on clinical parameters that could be quickly and easily assessed at the bedside. A score developed from the model coefficients was externally validated in two admissions datasets from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and compared to published risk scores using Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) was used to identify additional laboratory prognostic factors. A risk score using 8 clinical variables (temperature, heart rate, capillary refill time, conscious level, severe pallor, respiratory distress, lung crepitations, and weak pulse volume) was developed. The score ranged from 0-10 and had an AUROC of 0.82 (95 % CI, 0.77-0.87) in the FEAST trial derivation set. In the independent validation datasets, the score had an AUROC of 0.77 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.82) amongst admissions to a paediatric high dependency ward and 0.86 (95 % CI, 0.82-0.89) amongst general paediatric admissions. This discriminative ability was similar to, or better than other risk scores in the validation datasets. NRI identified lactate, blood urea nitrogen, and pH to be important prognostic laboratory variables that could add information to the clinical score. Eight clinical prognostic factors that could be rapidly assessed by healthcare staff for triage were combined to create the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) score and externally validated. The score discriminated those at highest risk of fatal outcome at the point of hospital admission and compared well to other published risk scores. Further laboratory tests were also identified as prognostic factors which could be added if resources were available or as indices of severity for comparison between centres in future research studies.

Cardiovascular risk

PubMed Central

Payne, Rupert A

2012-01-01

Cardiovascular disease is a major, growing, worldwide problem. It is important that individuals at risk of developing cardiovascular disease can be effectively identified and appropriately stratified according to risk. This review examines what we understand by the term risk, traditional and novel risk factors, clinical scoring systems, and the use of risk for informing prescribing decisions. Many different cardiovascular risk factors have been identified. Established, traditional factors such as ageing are powerful predictors of adverse outcome, and in the case of hypertension and dyslipidaemia are the major targets for therapeutic intervention. Numerous novel biomarkers have also been described, such as inflammatory and genetic markers. These have yet to be shown to be of value in improving risk prediction, but may represent potential therapeutic targets and facilitate more targeted use of existing therapies. Risk factors have been incorporated into several cardiovascular disease prediction algorithms, such as the Framingham equation, SCORE and QRISK. These have relatively poor predictive power, and uncertainties remain with regards to aspects such as choice of equation, different risk thresholds and the roles of relative risk, lifetime risk and reversible factors in identifying and treating at-risk individuals. Nonetheless, such scores provide objective and transparent means of quantifying risk and their integration into therapeutic guidelines enables equitable and cost-effective distribution of health service resources and improves the consistency and quality of clinical decision making. PMID:22348281

Impact of maternal education level on risk of low Apgar score.

PubMed

Almeida, N K O; Pedreira, C E; Almeida, R M V R

2016-11-01

To investigate the association between 5-min Apgar score and socio-economic characteristics of pregnant women, particularly education level. Population-based cross-sectional study. This study used hospital records of live term singleton births in Brazil from 2004 to 2009, obtained from the Ministry of Health National Information System. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were used to estimate the risk of a low 5-min Apgar score (≤6) associated with maternal education level, maternal age, marital status, primiparity, number of prenatal visits and mode of delivery (vaginal/caesarean section). Nearly 12 million records were analysed. Births from mothers with 0, 1-3, 4-7 and 8-11 years of education resulted in crude ORs for low 5-min Apgar score of 3.1, 2.2, 1.8 and 1.3, respectively (reference: ≥12 years of education). The crude OR for mothers aged ≥41 years (reference 21-34 years) was 1.4, but no risk was detected for those with ≥12 years of education and those who gave birth by caesarean section (OR 1.0 [95% confidence interval 0.9-1.2]). Generally, the risk of a low 5-min Apgar score was found to increase as maternal age moved away from 21 to 34 years (OR 1.1-1.7), and for mothers with the same characteristics, the risk of a low 5-min Apgar score was found to decrease markedly as education level increased (adjusted OR decreased from 2.6 to 1.2). Maternal education level is clearly associated with the risk of a low 5-min Apgar score. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A user-friendly risk-score for predicting in-hospital cardiac arrest among patients admitted with suspected non ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome - The SAFER-score.

PubMed

Faxén, Jonas; Hall, Marlous; Gale, Chris P; Sundström, Johan; Lindahl, Bertil; Jernberg, Tomas; Szummer, Karolina

2017-12-01

To develop a simple risk-score model for predicting in-hospital cardiac arrest (CA) among patients hospitalized with suspected non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Using the Swedish Web-system for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-based care in Heart disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies (SWEDEHEART), we identified patients (n=242 303) admitted with suspected NSTE-ACS between 2008 and 2014. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between 26 candidate variables and in-hospital CA. A risk-score model was developed and validated using a temporal cohort (n=126 073) comprising patients from SWEDEHEART between 2005 and 2007 and an external cohort (n=276 109) comprising patients from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) between 2008 and 2013. The incidence of in-hospital CA for NSTE-ACS and non-ACS was lower in the SWEDEHEART-derivation cohort than in MINAP (1.3% and 0.5% vs. 2.3% and 2.3%). A seven point, five variable risk score (age ≥60 years (1 point), ST-T abnormalities (2 points), Killip Class >1 (1 point), heart rate <50 or ≥100bpm (1 point), and systolic blood pressure <100mmHg (2 points) was developed. Model discrimination was good in the derivation cohort (c-statistic 0.72) and temporal validation cohort (c-statistic 0.74), and calibration was reasonable with a tendency towards overestimation of risk with a higher sum of score points. External validation showed moderate discrimination (c-statistic 0.65) and calibration showed a general underestimation of predicted risk. A simple points score containing five variables readily available on admission predicts in-hospital CA for patients with suspected NSTE-ACS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva (PNED) system vs. the Rockall score as mortality predictors in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A multicenter prospective study.

PubMed

Contreras-Omaña, R; Alfaro-Reynoso, J A; Cruz-Chávez, C E; Velarde-Ruiz Velasco, A; Flores-Ramírez, D I; Romero-Hernández, I; Donato-Olguín, I; García-Samper, X; Bautista-Santos, A; Reyes-Bastidas, M; Millán-Marín, E

The predictive scale for mortality risk in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) proposed by Italy's PNED (Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva) group has not been validated in Latin America since its original publication. To compare the PNED system and the Rockall score as mortality predictors in patients hospitalized for NVUGIB. A multicenter, prospective, cross-sectional, analytic study was conducted that recruited patients diagnosed with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding within the time frame of 2011 to 2015. Six Mexican hospital centers participated in the study. The Rockall and PNED system scores were calculated, classifying the patients as having mild, moderate, or severe disease. The association between mortality and risk was determined through the chi-square test and relative risk (RR) calculation. Statistical significance was set at a P<.05. Information on 198 patients was collected. Only 8 patients (4%) died from causes directly associated with bleeding. According to the Rockall score, 46 patients had severe disease (23.2%), 5 of whom died, with a RR of 5.5 (CI 1.35-22.02, P=.006). In relation to the PNED, only 8 patients had severe disease (4%), 5 of whom died, with a RR of 38.7 (CI 11.4-137.3, P=.001). The PNED system was more selective for classifying a case as severe, but it had a greater predictive capacity for mortality, compared with the Rockall score. Copyright © 2016 Asociación Mexicana de Gastroenterología. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

A Point System to Forecast Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Before and After Treatment Among Persons with Chronic Hepatitis C.

PubMed

Xing, Jian; Spradling, Philip R; Moorman, Anne C; Holmberg, Scott D; Teshale, Eyasu H; Rupp, Loralee B; Gordon, Stuart C; Lu, Mei; Boscarino, Joseph A; Schmidt, Mark A; Trinacty, Connie M; Xu, Fujie

2017-11-01

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may be difficult to determine in the clinical setting. Develop a scoring system to forecast HCC risk among patients with chronic hepatitis C. Using data from the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study collected during 2005-2014, we derived HCC risk scores for males and females using an extended Cox model with aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as a time-dependent variables and mean Kaplan-Meier survival functions from patient data at two study sites, and used data collected at two separate sites for external validation. For model calibration, we used the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino goodness-of-fit statistic to examine differences between predicted and observed risk. Of 12,469 patients (1628 with a history of sustained viral response [SVR]), 504 developed HCC; median follow-up was 6 years. Final predictors in the model included age, alcohol abuse, interferon-based treatment response, and APRI. Point values, ranging from -3 to 14 (males) and -3 to 12 (females), were established using hazard ratios of the predictors aligned with 1-, 3-, and 5-year Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities of HCC. Discriminatory capacity was high (c-index 0.82 males and 0.84 females) and external calibration demonstrated no differences between predicted and observed HCC risk for 1-, 3-, and 5-year forecasts among males (all p values >0.97) and for 3- and 5-year risk among females (all p values >0.87). This scoring system, based on age, alcohol abuse history, treatment response, and APRI, can be used to forecast up to a 5-year risk of HCC among hepatitis C patients before and after SVR.

The utility of the additive EuroSCORE, RIFLE and AKIN staging scores in the prediction and diagnosis of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Duthie, Fiona A I; McGeehan, Paul; Hill, Sharleen; Phelps, Richard; Kluth, David C; Zamvar, Vipin; Hughes, Jeremy; Ferenbach, David A

2014-01-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) following cardiac surgery is a complication associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. We compared staging systems for the diagnosis of AKI after cardiac surgery, and assessed pre-operative factors predictive of post-operative AKI. Clinical data, surgical risk scores, procedure and clinical outcome were obtained on all 4,651 patients undergoing cardiac surgery to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh between April 2006 and March 2011, of whom 4,572 had sufficient measurements of creatinine before and after surgery to permit inclusion and analysis. The presence of AKI was assessed using the AKIN and RIFLE criteria. By AKIN criteria, 12.4% of the studied population developed AKI versus 6.5% by RIFLE criteria. Any post-operation AKI was associated with increased mortality from 2.2 to 13.5% (relative risk 7.0, p < 0.001), and increased inpatient stay from a median of 7 (IQR 4) to 9 (IQR 11) days (p < 0.05). Patients identified by AKIN, but not RIFLE, had a mean peak creatinine rise of 34% from baseline and had a significantly lower mortality compared to RIFLE-'Risk' AKI (mortality 6.1 vs. 9.7%; p < 0.05). Pre-operative creatinine, diabetes, NYHA Class IV dyspnoea and EuroSCORE-1 (a surgical risk score) all predicted subsequent AKI on multivariate analysis. EuroSCORE-1 outperformed any single demographic factor in predicting post-operative AKI risk, equating to an 8% increase in relative risk for each additional point. AKI after cardiac surgery is associated with delayed discharge and high mortality rates. The AKIN and RIFLE criteria identify patients at a range of AKI severity levels suitable for trial recruitment. The utility of EuroSCORE as a risk stratification tool to identify high AKI-risk subjects for prospective intervention merits further study.

Predicting Early Death Among Elderly Dialysis Patients: Development and Validation of a Risk Score to Assist Shared Decision Making for Dialysis Initiation.

PubMed

Thamer, Mae; Kaufman, James S; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Qian; Cotter, Dennis J; Bang, Heejung

2015-12-01

A shared decision-making tool could help elderly patients with advanced chronic kidney disease decide about initiating dialysis therapy. Because mortality may be high in the first few months after initiating dialysis therapy, incorporating early mortality predictors in such a tool would be important for an informed decision. Our objective is to derive and validate a predictive risk score for early mortality after initiating dialysis therapy. Retrospective observational cohort, with development and validation cohorts. US Renal Data System and claims data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for 69,441 (aged ≥67 years) patients with end-stage renal disease with a previous 2-year Medicare history who initiated dialysis therapy from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2010. Demographics, predialysis care, laboratory data, functional limitations, and medical history. All-cause mortality in the first 3 and 6 months. Predicted mortality by logistic regression. The simple risk score (total score, 0-9) included age (0-3 points), low albumin level, assistance with daily living, nursing home residence, cancer, heart failure, and hospitalization (1 point each), and showed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)=0.69 in the validation sample. A comprehensive risk score with additional predictors was also developed (with AUROC=0.72, high concordance between predicted vs observed risk). Mortality probabilities were estimated from these models, with the median score of 3 indicating 12% risk in 3 months and 20% in 6 months, and the highest scores (≥8) indicating 39% risk in 3 months and 55% in 6 months. Patients who did not choose dialysis therapy and did not have a 2-year Medicare history were excluded. Routinely available information can be used by patients with chronic kidney disease, families, and their nephrologists to estimate the risk of early mortality after dialysis therapy initiation, which may facilitate informed decision making regarding treatment options. Copyright © 2015 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of a Predictive Scoring System for Deep Sternal Wound Infection after Bilateral Internal Thoracic Artery Grafting in a Cohort of French Patients.

PubMed

Perrotti, Andrea; Gatti, Giuseppe; Dorigo, Enrica; Sinagra, Gianfranco; Pappalardo, Aniello; Chocron, Sidney

The Gatti score is a weighted scoring system based on risk factors for deep sternal wound infection (DSWI) that was created in an Italian center to predict DSWI risk after bilateral internal thoracic artery (BITA) grafting. No external evaluation based on validation samples derived from other surgical centers has been performed. The aim of this study is to perform this validation. During 2015, BITA grafts were used as skeletonized conduits in all 255 consecutive patients with multi-vessel coronary disease who underwent isolated coronary bypass surgery at the Department of Thoracic and Cardio-Vascular Surgery, University Hospital Jean Minjoz, Besançon, France. Baseline characteristics, operative data, and immediate outcomes of every patient were collected prospectively. A DSWI risk score was assigned to each patient pre-operatively. The discrimination power of both models, pre-operative and combined, of the Gatti score was assessed with the calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Fourteen (5.5%) patients had DSWI. Major differences both as the baseline characteristics of patients and surgical techniques were found between this series and the original series from which the Gatti score was derived. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.64-0.92) for the pre-operative model and 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.98) for the combined model. The Gatti score has proven to be effective even in a cohort of French patients despite major differences from the original Italian series. Multi-center validation studies must be performed before introducing the score into clinical practice.

The ability of the 2013 ACC/AHA cardiovascular risk score to identify rheumatoid arthritis patients with high coronary artery calcification scores

PubMed Central

Kawai, Vivian K.; Chung, Cecilia P.; Solus, Joseph F.; Oeser, Annette; Raggi, Paolo; Stein, C. Michael

2014-01-01

Objective Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) that is underestimated by the Framingham risk score (FRS). We hypothesized that the 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year risk score would perform better than the FRS and the Reynolds risk score (RRS) in identifying RA patients known to have elevated cardiovascular risk based on high coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores. Methods Among 98 RA patients eligible for risk stratification using the ACC/AHA score we identified 34 patients with high CAC (≥ 300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile) and compared the ability of the 10-year FRS, RRS and the ACC/AHA risk scores to correctly assign these patients to an elevated risk category. Results All three risk scores were higher in patients with high CAC (P values <0.05). The percentage of patients with high CAC correctly assigned to the elevated risk category was similar among the three scores (FRS 32%, RRS 32%, ACC/AHA 41%) (P=0.233). The c-statistics for the FRS, RRS and ACC/AHA risk scores predicting the presence of high CAC were 0.65, 0.66, and 0.65, respectively. Conclusions The ACC/AHA 10-year risk score does not offer any advantage compared to the traditional FRS and RRS in the identification of RA patients with elevated risk as determined by high CAC. The ACC/AHA risk score assigned almost 60% of patients with high CAC into a low risk category. Risk scores and standard risk prediction models used in the general population do not adequately identify many RA patients with elevated cardiovascular risk. PMID:25371313

Does non-central nervous system tuberculosis increase the risk of ischemic stroke? A population-based propensity score-matched follow-up study.

PubMed

Wu, Chueh-Hung; Chen, Li-Sheng; Yen, Ming-Fang; Chiu, Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Ching-Yuan; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Pan, Shin-Liang

2014-01-01

Previous studies on the association between tuberculosis and the risk of developing ischemic stroke have generated inconsistent results. We therefore performed a population-based, propensity score-matched longitudinal follow-up study to investigate whether contracting non-central nervous system (CNS) tuberculosis leads to an increased risk of ischemic stroke. We used a logistic regression model that includes age, sex, pre-existing comorbidities and socioeconomic status as covariates to compute the propensity score. A total of 5804 persons with at least three ambulatory visits in 2001 with the principal diagnosis of non-CNS tuberculosis were enrolled in the tuberculosis group. The non-tuberculosis group consisted of 5804, propensity score-matched subjects without tuberculosis. The three-year ischemic stroke-free survival rates for these 2 groups were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The stratified Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the effect of tuberculosis on the occurrence of ischemic stroke. During three-year follow-up, 176 subjects in the tuberculosis group (3.0%) and 207 in the non-tuberculosis group (3.6%) had ischemic stroke. The hazard ratio for developing ischemic stroke in the tuberculosis group was 0.92 compared to the non-tuberculosis group (95% confidence interval: 0.73-1.14, P = 0.4299). Non-CNS tuberculosis does not increase the risk of subsequent ischemic stroke.

Diagnostic performance of an acoustic-based system for coronary artery disease risk stratification.

PubMed

Winther, Simon; Nissen, Louise; Schmidt, Samuel Emil; Westra, Jelmer Sybren; Rasmussen, Laust Dupont; Knudsen, Lars Lyhne; Madsen, Lene Helleskov; Kirk Johansen, Jane; Larsen, Bjarke Skogstad; Struijk, Johannes Jan; Frost, Lars; Holm, Niels Ramsing; Christiansen, Evald Høj; Botker, Hans Erik; Bøttcher, Morten

2018-06-01

Diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD) continues to require substantial healthcare resources. Acoustic analysis of transcutaneous heart sounds of cardiac movement and intracoronary turbulence due to obstructive coronary disease could potentially change this. The aim of this study was thus to test the diagnostic accuracy of a new portable acoustic device for detection of CAD. We included 1675 patients consecutively with low to intermediate likelihood of CAD who had been referred for cardiac CT angiography. If significant obstruction was suspected in any coronary segment, patients were referred to invasive angiography and fractional flow reserve (FFR) assessment. Heart sound analysis was performed in all patients. A predefined acoustic CAD-score algorithm was evaluated; subsequently, we developed and validated an updated CAD-score algorithm that included both acoustic features and clinical risk factors. Low risk is indicated by a CAD-score value ≤20. Haemodynamically significant CAD assessed from FFR was present in 145 (10.0%) patients. In the entire cohort, the predefined CAD-score had a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 44%. In total, 50% had an updated CAD-score value ≤20. At this cut-off, sensitivity was 81% (95% CI 73% to 87%), specificity 53% (95% CI 50% to 56%), positive predictive value 16% (95% CI 13% to 18%) and negative predictive value 96% (95% CI 95% to 98%) for diagnosing haemodynamically significant CAD. Sound-based detection of CAD enables risk stratification superior to clinical risk scores. With a negative predictive value of 96%, this new acoustic rule-out system could potentially supplement clinical assessment to guide decisions on the need for further diagnostic investigation. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02264717; Results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Development and validation of a predictive score for perioperative transfusion in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing liver resection.

PubMed

Wang, Hai-Qing; Yang, Jian; Yang, Jia-Yin; Wang, Wen-Tao; Yan, Lu-Nan

2015-08-01

Liver resection is a major surgery requiring perioperative blood transfusion. Predicting the need for blood transfusion for patients undergoing liver resection is of great importance. The present study aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting transfusion requirement in HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing liver resection. A total of 1543 consecutive liver resections were included in the study. Randomly selected sample set of 1080 cases (70% of the study cohort) were used to develop a predictive score for transfusion requirement and the remaining 30% (n=463) was used to validate the score. Based on the preoperative and predictable intraoperative parameters, logistic regression was used to identify risk factors and to create an integer score for the prediction of transfusion requirement. Extrahepatic procedure, major liver resection, hemoglobin level and platelets count were identified as independent predictors for transfusion requirement by logistic regression analysis. A score system integrating these 4 factors was stratified into three groups which could predict the risk of transfusion, with a rate of 11.4%, 24.7% and 57.4% for low, moderate and high risk, respectively. The prediction model appeared accurate with good discriminatory abilities, generating an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.736 in the development set and 0.709 in the validation set. We have developed and validated an integer-based risk score to predict perioperative transfusion for patients undergoing liver resection in a high-volume surgical center. This score allows identifying patients at a high risk and may alter transfusion practices.

Prognostic value of the Rockall score in patients with acute nonvariceal bleeding from the upper gastrointestinal tract.

PubMed

Cieniawski, Dominik; Kuźniar, Ewelina; Winiarski, Marek; Matłok, Maciej; Kostarczyk, Wojciech; Pedziwiatr, Michał

2013-01-01

Non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common problem in everyday clinical practice. While treating patients affected by UGIB, the estimation of the risk of complications is very important. The Rockall Score is one of the methods used in clinical practice that allows doing that. The aim of this paper is to assess the usefulness of the aforementioned scoring system while treating patients with UGIB. The analysis included, 651 patients with nonvariceal UGIB. The average age of the group was 62.86+16.96 years. Each patient was subjected to the retrospective analysis according to the Rockall Scale's criteria. Then the entire group was divided into the complication risk groups according to the obtained amount of points (low<3, moderate 3 to 8, high>8). After dividing into groups the effort has been taken to find a relationship between Rockall Score points and the occurrences of individual complications. Mortality among the respondents amounted to 11.36%. The hospitalization of 97.70% patients with <3 points on the scale progressed without complications (p<0.001; X2=22.90). In the moderate risk group the highest frequency of re-bleeding and need for surgery were observed. Whereas among patients with >8 points the mortality of 78.95% was noted. Rockall Score is a simple and useful method for assessing prognosis for patients with the non-variceal UGIB. The highest scores are obtained by the patients with a great risk of demise. Rockall Score may be used for classifying patients to appropriate risk groups.

Evaluation of a prospective scoring system designed for a multicenter breast MR imaging screening study.

PubMed

Warren, Ruth M L; Thompson, Deborah; Pointon, Linda J; Hoff, Rebecca; Gilbert, Fiona J; Padhani, Anwar R; Easton, Douglas F; Lakhani, Sunil R; Leach, Martin O

2006-06-01

To evaluate prospectively the accuracy of a lesion classification system designed for use in a magnetic resonance (MR) imaging high-breast-cancer-risk screening study. All participating patients provided written informed consent. Ethics committee approval was obtained. The results of 1541 contrast material-enhanced breast MR imaging examinations were analyzed; 1441 screening examinations were performed in 638 women aged 24-51 years at high risk for breast cancer, and 100 examinations were performed in 100 women aged 23-81 years. Lesion analysis was performed in 991 breasts, which were divided into design (491 breasts) and testing (500 breasts) sets. The reference standard was histologic analysis of biopsy samples, fine-needle aspiration cytology, or minimal follow-up of 24 months. The scoring system involved the use of five features: morphology (MOR), pattern of enhancement (POE), percentage of maximal focal enhancement (PMFE), maximal signal intensity-time ratio (MITR), and pattern of contrast material washout (POCW). The system was evaluated by means of (a) assessment of interreader agreement, as expressed in kappa statistics, for 315 breasts in which both readers analyzed the same lesion, (b) assessment of the diagnostic accuracy of the scored components with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and (c) logistic regression analysis to determine which components of the scoring system were critical to the final score. A new simplified scoring system developed with the design set was applied to the testing set. There was moderate reader agreement regarding overall lesion outcome (ie, malignant, suspicious, or benign) (kappa=0.58) and less agreement regarding the scored components. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the overall lesion score, 0.88, was higher than the AUC for any one component. The components MOR, POE, and POCW yielded the best overall result. PMFE and MITR did not contribute to diagnostic utility. Applying a simplified scoring system to the testing set yielded a nonsignificantly (P=.2) higher AUC than did applying the original scoring system (sensitivity, 84%; specificity, 86.0%). Good diagnostic accuracy can be achieved by using simple qualitative descriptors of lesion enhancement, including POCW. In the context of screening, quantitative enhancement parameters appear to be less useful for lesion characterization. Copyright (c) RSNA, 2006.

A climate-based prediction model in the high-risk clusters of the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam: towards improving dengue prevention and control.

PubMed

Phung, Dung; Talukder, Mohammad Radwanur Rahman; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia

2016-10-01

To develop a prediction score scheme useful for prevention practitioners and authorities to implement dengue preparedness and controls in the Mekong Delta region (MDR). We applied a spatial scan statistic to identify high-risk dengue clusters in the MDR and used generalised linear-distributed lag models to examine climate-dengue associations using dengue case records and meteorological data from 2003 to 2013. The significant predictors were collapsed into categorical scales, and the β-coefficients of predictors were converted to prediction scores. The score scheme was validated for predicting dengue outbreaks using ROC analysis. The north-eastern MDR was identified as the high-risk cluster. A 1 °C increase in temperature at lag 1-4 and 5-8 weeks increased the dengue risk 11% (95% CI, 9-13) and 7% (95% CI, 6-8), respectively. A 1% rise in humidity increased dengue risk 0.9% (95% CI, 0.2-1.4) at lag 1-4 and 0.8% (95% CI, 0.2-1.4) at lag 5-8 weeks. Similarly, a 1-mm increase in rainfall increased dengue risk 0.1% (95% CI, 0.05-0.16) at lag 1-4 and 0.11% (95% CI, 0.07-0.16) at lag 5-8 weeks. The predicted scores performed with high accuracy in diagnosing the dengue outbreaks (96.3%). This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a dengue prediction score scheme derived from complex statistical models for high-risk dengue clusters. We recommend a further study to examine the possibility of incorporating such a score scheme into the dengue early warning system in similar climate settings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

EUTOS CML prognostic scoring system predicts ELN-based 'event-free survival' better than Euro/Hasford and Sokal systems in CML patients receiving front-line imatinib mesylate.

PubMed

Uz, Burak; Buyukasik, Yahya; Atay, Hilmi; Kelkitli, Engin; Turgut, Mehmet; Bektas, Ozlen; Eliacik, Eylem; Isik, Ayşe; Aksu, Salih; Goker, Hakan; Sayinalp, Nilgun; Ozcebe, Osman I; Haznedaroglu, Ibrahim C

2013-09-01

The validity of the three currently used chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) scoring systems (Sokal CML prognostic scoring system, Euro/Hasford CML scoring system, and the EUTOS CML prognostic scoring system) were compared in the CML patients receiving frontline imatinib mesylate. One hundred and fourty-three chronic phase CML patients (71 males, 72 females) taking imatinib as frontline treatment were included in the study. The median age was 44 (16-82) years. Median total and on-imatinib follow-up durations were 29 (3.8-130) months and 25 (3-125) months, respectively. The complete hematological response (CHR) rate at 3 months was 95%. The best cumulative complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) rate at 24 months was 79.6%. Euro/Hasford scoring system was well-correlated with both Sokal and EUTOS scores (r = 0.6, P < 0.001 and r = 0.455, P < 0.001). However, there was only a weak correlation between Sokal and EUTOS scores (r = 0.2, P = 0.03). The 5-year median estimated event-free survival for low and high EUTOS risk patients were 62.6 (25.7-99.5) and 15.3 (7.4-23.2) months, respectively (P < 0.001). This performance was better than Sokal (P = 0.3) and Euro/Hasford (P = 0.04) scoring systems. Overall survival and CCyR rates were also better predicted by the EUTOS score. EUTOS CML prognostic scoring system, which is the only prognostic system developed during the imatinib era, predicts European LeukemiaNet (ELN)-based event-free survival better than Euro/Hasford and Sokal systems in CML patients receiving frontline imatinib mesylate. This observation might have important clinical implications.

Evaluation of pneumonia severity and acute physiology scores to predict ICU admission and mortality in patients hospitalized for influenza.

PubMed

Muller, Matthew P; McGeer, Allison J; Hassan, Kazi; Marshall, John; Christian, Michael

2010-03-05

The demand for inpatient medical services increases during influenza season. A scoring system capable of identifying influenza patients at low risk death or ICU admission could help clinicians make hospital admission decisions. Hospitalized patients with laboratory confirmed influenza were identified over 3 influenza seasons at 25 Ontario hospitals. Each patient was assigned a score for 6 pneumonia severity and 2 sepsis scores using the first data available following their registration in the emergency room. In-hospital mortality and ICU admission were the outcomes. Score performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the sensitivity and specificity for identifying low risk patients (risk of outcome <5%). The cohort consisted of 607 adult patients. Mean age was 76 years, 12% of patients died (71/607) and 9% required ICU care (55/607). None of the scores examined demonstrated good discriminatory ability (AUC>or=0.80). The Pneumonia Severity Index (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.72-0.83) and the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score (AUC 0.77, 95% 0.71-0.83) demonstrated fair predictive ability (AUC>or=0.70) for in-hospital mortality. The best predictor of ICU admission was SMART-COP (AUC 0.73, 95% CI 0.67-0.79). All other scores were poor predictors (AUC <0.70) of either outcome. If patients classified as low risk for in-hospital mortality using the PSI were discharged, 35% of admissions would have been avoided. None of the scores studied were good predictors of in-hospital mortality or ICU admission. The PSI and MEDS score were fair predictors of death and if these results are validated, their use could reduce influenza admission rates significantly.

Failure mode and effects analysis drastically reduced potential risks in clinical trial conduct.

PubMed

Lee, Howard; Lee, Heechan; Baik, Jungmi; Kim, Hyunjung; Kim, Rachel

2017-01-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a risk management tool to proactively identify and assess the causes and effects of potential failures in a system, thereby preventing them from happening. The objective of this study was to evaluate effectiveness of FMEA applied to an academic clinical trial center in a tertiary care setting. A multidisciplinary FMEA focus group at the Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center selected 6 core clinical trial processes, for which potential failure modes were identified and their risk priority number (RPN) was assessed. Remedial action plans for high-risk failure modes (RPN >160) were devised and a follow-up RPN scoring was conducted a year later. A total of 114 failure modes were identified with an RPN score ranging 3-378, which was mainly driven by the severity score. Fourteen failure modes were of high risk, 11 of which were addressed by remedial actions. Rescoring showed a dramatic improvement attributed to reduction in the occurrence and detection scores by >3 and >2 points, respectively. FMEA is a powerful tool to improve quality in clinical trials. The Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center is expanding its FMEA capability to other core clinical trial processes.

Risk scoring for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Karmali, Kunal N; Persell, Stephen D; Perel, Pablo; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Berendsen, Mark A; Huffman, Mark D

2017-03-14

The current paradigm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) emphasises absolute risk assessment to guide treatment decisions in primary prevention. Although the derivation and validation of multivariable risk assessment tools, or CVD risk scores, have attracted considerable attention, their effect on clinical outcomes is uncertain. To assess the effects of evaluating and providing CVD risk scores in adults without prevalent CVD on cardiovascular outcomes, risk factor levels, preventive medication prescribing, and health behaviours. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library (2016, Issue 2), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March week 1 2016), Embase (embase.com) (1974 to 15 March 2016), and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S) (1990 to 15 March 2016). We imposed no language restrictions. We searched clinical trial registers in March 2016 and handsearched reference lists of primary studies to identify additional reports. We included randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing the systematic provision of CVD risk scores by a clinician, healthcare professional, or healthcare system compared with usual care (i.e. no systematic provision of CVD risk scores) in adults without CVD. Three review authors independently selected studies, extracted data, and evaluated study quality. We used the Cochrane 'Risk of bias' tool to assess study limitations. The primary outcomes were: CVD events, change in CVD risk factor levels (total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and multivariable CVD risk), and adverse events. Secondary outcomes included: lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication prescribing in higher-risk people. We calculated risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous data and mean differences (MD) or standardised mean differences (SMD) for continuous data using 95% confidence intervals. We used a fixed-effects model when heterogeneity (I²) was at least 50% and a random-effects model for substantial heterogeneity (I² > 50%). We evaluated the quality of evidence using the GRADE framework. We identified 41 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving 194,035 participants from 6422 reports. We assessed studies as having high or unclear risk of bias across multiple domains. Low-quality evidence evidence suggests that providing CVD risk scores may have little or no effect on CVD events compared with usual care (5.4% versus 5.3%; RR 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95 to 1.08; I² = 25%; 3 trials, N = 99,070). Providing CVD risk scores may reduce CVD risk factor levels by a small amount compared with usual care. Providing CVD risk scores reduced total cholesterol (MD -0.10 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.20 to 0.00; I² = 94%; 12 trials, N = 20,437, low-quality evidence), systolic blood pressure (MD -2.77 mmHg, 95% CI -4.16 to -1.38; I² = 93%; 16 trials, N = 32,954, low-quality evidence), and multivariable CVD risk (SMD -0.21, 95% CI -0.39 to -0.02; I² = 94%; 9 trials, N = 9549, low-quality evidence). Providing CVD risk scores may reduce adverse events compared with usual care, but results were imprecise (1.9% versus 2.7%; RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.49 to 1.04; I² = 0%; 4 trials, N = 4630, low-quality evidence). Compared with usual care, providing CVD risk scores may increase new or intensified lipid-lowering medications (15.7% versus 10.7%; RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.87; I² = 40%; 11 trials, N = 14,175, low-quality evidence) and increase new or increased antihypertensive medications (17.2% versus 11.4%; RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.11; I² = 53%; 8 trials, N = 13,255, low-quality evidence). There is uncertainty whether current strategies for providing CVD risk scores affect CVD events. Providing CVD risk scores may slightly reduce CVD risk factor levels and may increase preventive medication prescribing in higher-risk people without evidence of harm. There were multiple study limitations in the identified studies and substantial heterogeneity in the interventions, outcomes, and analyses, so readers should interpret results with caution. New models for implementing and evaluating CVD risk scores in adequately powered studies are needed to define the role of applying CVD risk scores in primary CVD prevention.

Comparison of Different Scoring Systems Based on Both Donor and Recipient Characteristics for Predicting Outcome after Living Donor Liver Transplantation.

PubMed

Ma, Yucheng; Wang, Qing; Yang, Jiayin; Yan, Lunan

2015-01-01

In order to provide a good match between donor and recipient in liver transplantation, four scoring systems [the product of donor age and Model for End-stage Liver Disease score (D-MELD), the score to predict survival outcomes following liver transplantation (SOFT), the balance of risk score (BAR), and the transplant risk index (TRI)] based on both donor and recipient parameters were designed. This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the four scores in living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) and compare them with the MELD score. The clinical data of 249 adult patients undergoing LDLT in our center were retrospectively evaluated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of each score were calculated and compared at 1-, 3-, 6-month and 1-year after LDLT. The BAR at 1-, 3-, 6-month and 1-year after LDLT and the D-MELD and TRI at 1-, 3- and 6-month after LDLT showed acceptable performances in the prediction of survival (AUC>0.6), while the SOFT showed poor discrimination at 6-month after LDLT (AUC = 0.569). In addition, the D-MELD and BAR displayed positive correlations with the length of ICU stay (D-MELD, p = 0.025; BAR, p = 0.022). The SOFT was correlated with the time of mechanical ventilation (p = 0.022). The D-MELD, BAR and TRI provided acceptable performance in predicting survival after LDLT. However, even though these scoring systems were based on both donor and recipient parameters, only the BAR provided better performance than the MELD in predicting 1-year survival after LDLT.

Comparison of Different Scoring Systems Based on Both Donor and Recipient Characteristics for Predicting Outcome after Living Donor Liver Transplantation

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background and Objectives In order to provide a good match between donor and recipient in liver transplantation, four scoring systems [the product of donor age and Model for End-stage Liver Disease score (D-MELD), the score to predict survival outcomes following liver transplantation (SOFT), the balance of risk score (BAR), and the transplant risk index (TRI)] based on both donor and recipient parameters were designed. This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the four scores in living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) and compare them with the MELD score. Patients and Methods The clinical data of 249 adult patients undergoing LDLT in our center were retrospectively evaluated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of each score were calculated and compared at 1-, 3-, 6-month and 1-year after LDLT. Results The BAR at 1-, 3-, 6-month and 1-year after LDLT and the D-MELD and TRI at 1-, 3- and 6-month after LDLT showed acceptable performances in the prediction of survival (AUC>0.6), while the SOFT showed poor discrimination at 6-month after LDLT (AUC = 0.569). In addition, the D-MELD and BAR displayed positive correlations with the length of ICU stay (D-MELD, p = 0.025; BAR, p = 0.022). The SOFT was correlated with the time of mechanical ventilation (p = 0.022). Conclusion The D-MELD, BAR and TRI provided acceptable performance in predicting survival after LDLT. However, even though these scoring systems were based on both donor and recipient parameters, only the BAR provided better performance than the MELD in predicting 1-year survival after LDLT. PMID:26378786

Estimating Bird / Aircraft Collision Probabilities and Risk Utilizing Spatial Poisson Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-10

Operations (1995-2011) ........................................... 2 Table 2 DeVault Top 15 Relative Hazard Score...dedicated bird radar (Dokter, et al. 2011). The WRS-88D is used in the Avian Hazard Advisory System which is described later in this paper. Advisory...Avian Hazard Advisory System (AHAS) is an online, near real-time, geographic information system (GIS) used for bird strike risk flight planning across

Performance of stroke risk scores in older people with atrial fibrillation not taking warfarin: comparative cohort study from BAFTA trial.

PubMed

Hobbs, F D R; Roalfe, A K; Lip, G Y H; Fletcher, K; Fitzmaurice, D A; Mant, J

2011-06-23

To compare the predictive power of the main existing and recently proposed schemes for stratification of risk of stroke in older patients with atrial fibrillation. Comparative cohort study of eight risk stratification scores. Trial of thromboprophylaxis in stroke, the Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation in the Aged (BAFTA) trial. 665 patients aged 75 or over with atrial fibrillation based in the community who were randomised to the BAFTA trial and were not taking warfarin throughout or for part of the study period. Events rates of stroke and thromboembolism. 54 (8%) patients had an ischaemic stroke, four (0.6%) had a systemic embolism, and 13 (2%) had a transient ischaemic attack. The distribution of patients classified into the three risk categories (low, moderate, high) was similar across three of the risk stratification scores (revised CHADS(2), NICE, ACC/AHA/ESC), with most patients categorised as high risk (65-69%, n = 460-457) and the remaining classified as moderate risk. The original CHADS(2) (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥ 75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score identified the lowest number as high risk (27%, n = 180). The incremental risk scores of CHADS(2), Rietbrock modified CHADS(2), and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc (CHA(2)DS(2)-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex) failed to show an increase in risk at the upper range of scores. The predictive accuracy was similar across the tested schemes with C statistic ranging from 0.55 (original CHADS(2)) to 0.62 (Rietbrock modified CHADS(2)), with all except the original CHADS(2) predicting better than chance. Bootstrapped paired comparisons provided no evidence of significant differences between the discriminatory ability of the schemes. Based on this single trial population, current risk stratification schemes in older people with atrial fibrillation have only limited ability to predict the risk of stroke. Given the systematic undertreatment of older people with anticoagulation, and the relative safety of warfarin versus aspirin in those aged over 70, there could be a pragmatic rationale for classifying all patients over 75 as "high risk" until better tools are available.

Multicentre validation of the bedside paediatric early warning system score: a severity of illness score to detect evolving critical illness in hospitalised children

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction The timely provision of critical care to hospitalised patients at risk for cardiopulmonary arrest is contingent upon identification and referral by frontline providers. Current approaches require improvement. In a single-centre study, we developed the Bedside Paediatric Early Warning System (Bedside PEWS) score to identify patients at risk. The objective of this study was to validate the Bedside PEWS score in a large patient population at multiple hospitals. Methods We performed an international, multicentre, case-control study of children admitted to hospital inpatient units with no limitations on care. Case patients had experienced a clinical deterioration event involving either an immediate call to a resuscitation team or urgent admission to a paediatric intensive care unit. Control patients had no events. The scores ranged from 0 to 26 and were assessed in the 24 hours prior to the clinical deterioration event. Score performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUCROC) curve by comparison with the retrospective rating of nurses and the temporal progression of scores in case patients. Results A total of 2,074 patients were evaluated at 4 participating hospitals. The median (interquartile range) maximum Bedside PEWS scores for the 12 hours ending 1 hour before the clinical deterioration event were 8 (5 to 12) in case patients and 2 (1 to 4) in control patients (P < 0.0001). The AUCROC curve (95% confidence interval) was 0.87 (0.85 to 0.89). In case patients, mean scores were 5.3 at 20 to 24 hours and 8.4 at 0 to 4 hours before the event (P < 0.0001). The AUCROC curve (95% CI) of the retrospective nurse ratings was 0.83 (0.81 to 0.86). This was significantly lower than that of the Bedside PEWS score (P < 0.0001). Conclusions The Bedside PEWS score identified children at risk for cardiopulmonary arrest. Scores were elevated and continued to increase in the 24 hours before the clinical deterioration event. Prospective clinical evaluation is needed to determine whether this score will improve the quality of care and patient outcomes. PMID:21812993

Predicting recurrence after chronic subdural haematoma drainage.

PubMed

Jack, Andrew; O'Kelly, Cian; McDougall, Cameron; Findlay, J Max

2015-01-01

Recurrence of chronic subdural haematomas (CSDHs) after surgical drainage is a significant problem with rates up to 20%. This study focuses on determining factors predictive of haematoma recurrence and presents a scoring system stratifying recurrence risk for individual patients. Between the years 2005 and 2009, 331 consecutive patients with CSDHs treated with surgery were included in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed searching for risk factors of increased post-operative haematoma volume and haematoma recurrence requiring repeat drainage. We found a 12% reoperation rate. CSDH septation (seen on computed tomogram scan) was found to be an independent risk factor for recurrence requiring reoperation (p=0.04). Larger post-operative subdural haematoma volume was also significantly associated with requiring a second drainage procedure (p<0.001). Independent risk factors of larger post-operative haematoma volume included septations within a CSDH (p<0.01), increased pre-operative haematoma volume (p<0.01), and a greater amount of parenchymal atrophy (p=0.04). A simple scoring system for quantifying recurrence risk was created and validated based on patient age (< or ≥ 80 years), haematoma volume (< or ≥ 160 cc), and presence of septations within the subdural collection (yes or no). Septations within CSDHs are associated with larger post-operative residual haematoma collections requiring repeat drainage. When septations are clearly visible within a CSDH, craniotomy might be more suitable as a primary procedure as it allows greater access to a septated subdural collection. Our proposed scoring system combining haematoma volume, age, and presence of septations might be useful in identifying patients at higher risk for recurrence.

Predicting vascular complications in percutaneous coronary interventions.

PubMed

Piper, Winthrop D; Malenka, David J; Ryan, Thomas J; Shubrooks, Samuel J; O'Connor, Gerald T; Robb, John F; Farrell, Karen L; Corliss, Mary S; Hearne, Michael J; Kellett, Mirle A; Watkins, Matthew W; Bradley, William A; Hettleman, Bruce D; Silver, Theodore M; McGrath, Paul D; O'Mears, John R; Wennberg, David E

2003-06-01

Using a large, current, regional registry of percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI), we identified risk factors for postprocedure vascular complications and developed a scoring system to estimate individual patient risk. A vascular complication (access-site injury requiring treatment or bleeding requiring transfusion) is a potentially avoidable outcome of PCI. Data were collected on 18,137 consecutive patients undergoing PCI in northern New England from January 1997 to December 1999. Multivariate regression was used to identify characteristics associated with vascular complications and to develop a scoring system to predict risk. The rate of vascular complication was 2.98% (541 cases). Variables associated with increased risk in the multivariate analysis included age >or=70, odds ratio (OR) 2.7, female sex (OR 2.4), body surface area <1.6 m(2) (OR 1.9), history of congestive heart failure (OR 1.4), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 1.5), renal failure (OR 1.9), lower extremity vascular disease (OR 1.4), bleeding disorder (OR 1.68), emergent priority (OR 2.3), myocardial infarction (OR 1.7), shock (1.86), >or=1 type B2 (OR 1.32) or type C (OR 1.7) lesions, 3-vessel PCI (OR 1.5), use of thienopyridines (OR 1.4) or use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor inhibitors (OR 1.9). The model performed well in tests for significance, discrimination, and calibration. The scoring system captured 75% of actual vascular complications in its highest quintiles of predicted risk. Predicting the risk of post-PCI vascular complications is feasible. This information may be useful for clinical decision-making and institutional efforts at quality improvement.

The incidences and risk factors related to early dysphagia after anterior cervical spine surgery: A prospective study.

PubMed

Liu, Jia-Ming; Tong, Wei-Lai; Chen, Xuan-Yin; Zhou, Yang; Chen, Wen-Zhao; Huang, Shan-Hu; Liu, Zhi-Li

2017-01-01

Dysphagia is a common complication following anterior cervical spine surgery (ACSS). The incidences of dysphagia were variable and controversial. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of early dysphagia after ACSS with a new scoring system, and to identify the risk factors of it. A prospective study was carried out and patients who underwent ACSS from March 2014 to August 2014 in our hospital were included in this study. A self-designed dysphagia questionnaire was delivered to all of the patients from the first day to the fifth day after ACSS. Perioperative characteristics of patients were recorded, and incidences and risk factors of dysphagia were analyzed. A total of 104 patients who underwent ACSS were included and incidences of dysphagia from the first to the fifth day after ACSS was 87.5%, 79.81%, 62.14%, 50% and 44.23%, respectively. There was a good correlation between the new dysphagia scoring system and Bazaz scoring system (P < 0.001). Operative time and body mass index (BMI) were the risk factors for dysphagia during the first to the second day postoperatively. However, the dC2-C7angle was the main risk factor for dysphagia from the third to the fifth day after surgery. There were comparatively high incidences of early dysphagia after ACSS, which may be ascribed to operative time, BMI and the dC2-C7 angle.

The incidences and risk factors related to early dysphagia after anterior cervical spine surgery: A prospective study

PubMed Central

Chen, Xuan-Yin; Zhou, Yang; Chen, Wen-Zhao; Huang, Shan-Hu; Liu, Zhi-Li

2017-01-01

Dysphagia is a common complication following anterior cervical spine surgery (ACSS). The incidences of dysphagia were variable and controversial. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of early dysphagia after ACSS with a new scoring system, and to identify the risk factors of it. A prospective study was carried out and patients who underwent ACSS from March 2014 to August 2014 in our hospital were included in this study. A self-designed dysphagia questionnaire was delivered to all of the patients from the first day to the fifth day after ACSS. Perioperative characteristics of patients were recorded, and incidences and risk factors of dysphagia were analyzed. A total of 104 patients who underwent ACSS were included and incidences of dysphagia from the first to the fifth day after ACSS was 87.5%, 79.81%, 62.14%, 50% and 44.23%, respectively. There was a good correlation between the new dysphagia scoring system and Bazaz scoring system (P < 0.001). Operative time and body mass index (BMI) were the risk factors for dysphagia during the first to the second day postoperatively. However, the dC2-C7angle was the main risk factor for dysphagia from the third to the fifth day after surgery. There were comparatively high incidences of early dysphagia after ACSS, which may be ascribed to operative time, BMI and the dC2-C7 angle. PMID:28267777

Poor performances of EuroSCORE and CARE score for prediction of perioperative mortality in octogenarians undergoing aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis.

PubMed

Chhor, Vibol; Merceron, Sybille; Ricome, Sylvie; Baron, Gabriel; Daoud, Omar; Dilly, Marie-Pierre; Aubier, Benjamin; Provenchere, Sophie; Philip, Ivan

2010-08-01

Although results of cardiac surgery are improving, octogenarians have a higher procedure-related mortality and more complications with increased length of stay in ICU. Consequently, careful evaluation of perioperative risk seems necessary. The aims of our study were to assess and compare the performances of EuroSCORE and CARE score in the prediction of perioperative mortality among octogenarians undergoing aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis and to compare these predictive performances with those obtained in younger patients. This retrospective study included all consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery in our institution between November 2005 and December 2007. For each patient, risk assessment for mortality was performed using logistic EuroSCORE, additive EuroSCORE and CARE score. The main outcome measure was early postoperative mortality. Predictive performances of these scores were assessed by calibration and discrimination using goodness-of-fit test and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, respectively. During this 2-year period, we studied 2117 patients, among whom 134/211 octogenarians and 335/1906 nonoctogenarians underwent an aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis. When considering patients with aortic stenosis, discrimination was poor in octogenarians and the difference from nonoctogenarians was significant for each score (0.58, 0.59 and 0.56 vs. 0.82, 0.81 and 0.77 for additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and CARE score in octogenarians and nonoctogenarians, respectively, P < 0.05). Moreover, in the whole cohort, logistic EuroSCORE significantly overestimated mortality among octogenarians. Predictive performances of these scores are poor in octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery, especially aortic valve replacement. Risk assessment and therapeutic decisions in octogenarians should not be made with these scoring systems alone.

Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand position statement executive summary: coronary artery calcium scoring.

PubMed

Hamilton-Craig, Christian R; Chow, Clara K; Younger, John F; Jelinek, V M; Chan, Jonathan; Liew, Gary Yh

2017-10-16

Introduction This article summarises the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand position statement on coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring. CAC scoring is a non-invasive method for quantifying coronary artery calcification using computed tomography. It is a marker of atherosclerotic plaque burden and the strongest independent predictor of future myocardial infarction and mortality. CAC scoring provides incremental risk information beyond traditional risk calculators such as the Framingham Risk Score. Its use for risk stratification is confined to primary prevention of cardiovascular events, and can be considered as individualised coronary risk scoring for intermediate risk patients, allowing reclassification to low or high risk based on the score. Medical practitioners should carefully counsel patients before CAC testing, which should only be undertaken if an alteration in therapy, including embarking on pharmacotherapy, is being considered based on the test result. Main recommendations CAC scoring should primarily be performed on individuals without coronary disease aged 45-75 years (absolute 5-year cardiovascular risk of 10-15%) who are asymptomatic. CAC scoring is also reasonable in lower risk groups (absolute 5-year cardiovascular risk, < 10%) where risk scores traditionally underestimate risk (eg, family history of premature CVD) and in patients with diabetes aged 40-60 years. We recommend aspirin and a high efficacy statin in high risk patients, defined as those with a CAC score ≥ 400, or a CAC score of 100-399 and above the 75th percentile for age and sex. It is reasonable to treat patients with CAC scores ≥ 100 with aspirin and a statin. It is reasonable not to treat asymptomatic patients with a CAC score of zero. Changes in management as a result of this statement Cardiovascular risk is reclassified according to CAC score. High risk patients are treated with a high efficacy statin and aspirin. Very low risk patients (ie, CAC score of zero) do not benefit from treatment.

siMS Score: Simple Method for Quantifying Metabolic Syndrome.

PubMed

Soldatovic, Ivan; Vukovic, Rade; Culafic, Djordje; Gajic, Milan; Dimitrijevic-Sreckovic, Vesna

2016-01-01

To evaluate siMS score and siMS risk score, novel continuous metabolic syndrome scores as methods for quantification of metabolic status and risk. Developed siMS score was calculated using formula: siMS score = 2*Waist/Height + Gly/5.6 + Tg/1.7 + TAsystolic/130-HDL/1.02 or 1.28 (for male or female subjects, respectively). siMS risk score was calculated using formula: siMS risk score = siMS score * age/45 or 50 (for male or female subjects, respectively) * family history of cardio/cerebro-vascular events (event = 1.2, no event = 1). A sample of 528 obese and non-obese participants was used to validate siMS score and siMS risk score. Scores calculated as sum of z-scores (each component of metabolic syndrome regressed with age and gender) and sum of scores derived from principal component analysis (PCA) were used for evaluation of siMS score. Variants were made by replacing glucose with HOMA in calculations. Framingham score was used for evaluation of siMS risk score. Correlation between siMS score with sum of z-scores and weighted sum of factors of PCA was high (r = 0.866 and r = 0.822, respectively). Correlation between siMS risk score and log transformed Framingham score was medium to high for age groups 18+,30+ and 35+ (0.835, 0.707 and 0.667, respectively). siMS score and siMS risk score showed high correlation with more complex scores. Demonstrated accuracy together with superior simplicity and the ability to evaluate and follow-up individual patients makes siMS and siMS risk scores very convenient for use in clinical practice and research as well.

Development, Validation and Deployment of a Real Time 30 Day Hospital Readmission Risk Assessment Tool in the Maine Healthcare Information Exchange.

PubMed

Hao, Shiying; Wang, Yue; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Young; Zhu, Chunqing; Huang, Min; Zheng, Le; Luo, Jin; Hu, Zhongkai; Fu, Changlin; Dai, Dorothy; Wang, Yicheng; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

2015-01-01

Identifying patients at risk of a 30-day readmission can help providers design interventions, and provide targeted care to improve clinical effectiveness. This study developed a risk model to predict a 30-day inpatient hospital readmission for patients in Maine, across all payers, all diseases and all demographic groups. Our objective was to develop a model to determine the risk for inpatient hospital readmission within 30 days post discharge. All patients within the Maine Health Information Exchange (HIE) system were included. The model was retrospectively developed on inpatient encounters between January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012 from 24 randomly chosen hospitals, and then prospectively validated on inpatient encounters from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 using all HIE patients. A risk assessment tool partitioned the entire HIE population into subgroups that corresponded to probability of hospital readmission as determined by a corresponding positive predictive value (PPV). An overall model c-statistic of 0.72 was achieved. The total 30-day readmission rates in low (score of 0-30), intermediate (score of 30-70) and high (score of 70-100) risk groupings were 8.67%, 24.10% and 74.10%, respectively. A time to event analysis revealed the higher risk groups readmitted to a hospital earlier than the lower risk groups. Six high-risk patient subgroup patterns were revealed through unsupervised clustering. Our model was successfully integrated into the statewide HIE to identify patient readmission risk upon admission and daily during hospitalization or for 30 days subsequently, providing daily risk score updates. The risk model was validated as an effective tool for predicting 30-day readmissions for patients across all payer, disease and demographic groups within the Maine HIE. Exposing the key clinical, demographic and utilization profiles driving each patient's risk of readmission score may be useful to providers in developing individualized post discharge care plans.

Comparison of the Framingham Risk Score, UKPDS Risk Engine, and SCORE for Predicting Carotid Atherosclerosis and Peripheral Arterial Disease in Korean Type 2 Diabetic Patients.

PubMed

Ahn, Hye-Ran; Shin, Min-Ho; Yun, Woo-Jun; Kim, Hye-Yeon; Lee, Young-Hoon; Kweon, Sun-Seog; Rhee, Jung-Ae; Choi, Jin-Su; Choi, Seong-Woo

2011-03-01

To compare the predictability of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) for carotid atherosclerosis and peripheral arterial disease in Korean type 2 diabetic patients. Among 1,275 registered type 2 diabetes patients in the health center, 621 subjects with type 2 diabetes participated in the study. Well-trained examiners measured the carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), carotid plaque, and ankle brachial index (ABI). The subject's 10-year risk of coronary heart disease was calculated according to the FRS, UKPDS, and SCORE risk scores. These three risk scores were compared to the areas under the curve (AUC). The odds ratios (ORs) of all risk scores increased as the quartiles increased for plaque, IMT, and ABI. For plaque and IMT, the UKPDS risk score provided the highest OR (95% confidence interval) at 3.82 (2.36, 6.17) and at 6.21 (3.37, 11.45). For ABI, the SCORE risk estimation provided the highest OR at 7.41 (3.20, 17.18). However, no significant difference was detected for plaque, IMT, or ABI (P = 0.839, 0.313, and 0.113, respectively) when the AUCs of the three risk scores were compared. When we graphed the Kernel density distribution of these three risk scores, UKPDS had a higher distribution than FRS and SCORE. No significant difference was observed when comparing the predictability of the FRS, UKPDS risk engine, and SCORE risk estimation for carotid atherosclerosis and peripheral arterial disease in Korean type 2 diabetic patients.

Outcomes for endocarditis surgery in North America: a simplified risk scoring system.

PubMed

Gaca, Jeffrey G; Sheng, Shubin; Daneshmand, Mani A; O'Brien, Sean; Rankin, J Scott; Brennan, J Matthew; Hughes, G Chad; Glower, Donald D; Gammie, James S; Smith, Peter K

2011-01-01

Operation for infective endocarditis is associated with the highest mortality of any valve disease, with overall rates of in-hospital mortality exceeding 20%. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database was examined to develop a simple risk scoring system and identify areas for quality improvement. From 2002 through 2008, 19,543 operations were performed for infective endocarditis. Logistic regression analysis related baseline characteristics to both operative mortality and a composite of mortality and major morbidity within 30 days. Points were assigned to each risk factor, and estimated risk was obtained by averaging events for all patients having the same number of points. Overall unadjusted mortality was 8.2%, and complications occurred in 53%. Significant preoperative risk factors for mortality (associated points) were as follows: emergency, salvage status, or cardiogenic shock (17), preoperative hemodialysis, renal failure, or creatinine level less than 2.0 (12), preoperative inotropic or balloon pump support (10), active (vs treated) endocarditis (10), multiple valve involvement (9), insulin-dependent diabetes (8), arrhythmia (8), previous cardiac surgery (7), urgent status without cardiogenic shock (6), non-insulin-dependent diabetes (6), hypertension (5), and chronic lung disease (5), with a C statistic of 0.7578 (all P < .001). Risk-adjusted mortality and major morbidity were unchanged over the course of the study. In the entire data set, mortality was better if "any valve" was repaired (odds ratio = 0.76; P = .0023). Operative mortality for surgically treated infective endocarditis is substantially lower than reported in-hospital mortality rates for infective endocarditis. The described risk scoring system will inform clinical decision-making in these complex patients. Published by Mosby, Inc.

The key incident monitoring and management system - history and role in quality improvement.

PubMed

Badrick, Tony; Gay, Stephanie; Mackay, Mark; Sikaris, Ken

2018-01-26

The determination of reliable, practical Quality Indicators (QIs) from presentation of the patient with a pathology request form through to the clinician receiving the report (the Total Testing Process or TTP) is a key step in identifying areas where improvement is necessary in laboratories. The Australasian QIs programme Key Incident Monitoring and Management System (KIMMS) began in 2008. It records incidents (process defects) and episodes (occasions at which incidents may occur) to calculate incident rates. KIMMS also uses the Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) to assign quantified risk to each incident type. The system defines risk as incident frequency multiplied by both a harm rating (on a 1-10 scale) and detection difficulty score (also a 1-10 scale). Between 2008 and 2016, laboratories participating rose from 22 to 69. Episodes rose from 13.2 to 43.4 million; incidents rose from 114,082 to 756,432. We attribute the rise in incident rate from 0.86% to 1.75% to increased monitoring. Haemolysis shows the highest incidence (22.6% of total incidents) and the highest risk (26.68% of total risk). "Sample is suspected to be from the wrong patient" has the second lowest frequency, but receives the highest harm rating (10/10) and detection difficulty score (10/10), so it is calculated to be the 8th highest risk (2.92%). Similarly, retracted (incorrect) reports QI has the 10th highest frequency (3.9%) but the harm/difficulty calculation confers the second highest risk (11.17%). TTP incident rates are generally low (less than 2% of observed episodes), however, incident risks, their frequencies multiplied by both ratings of harm and discovery difficulty scores, concentrate improvement attention and resources on the monitored incident types most important to manage.

Multidrug-resistant pathogens in patients with pneumonia coming from the community.

PubMed

Sibila, Oriol; Rodrigo-Troyano, Ana; Shindo, Yuichiro; Aliberti, Stefano; Restrepo, Marcos I

2016-05-01

Identification of patients with multidrug-resistant (MDR) pathogens at initial diagnosis is essential for the appropriate selection of empiric treatment of patients with pneumonia coming from the community. The term Healthcare-Associated Pneumonia (HCAP) is controversial for this purpose. Our goal is to summarize and interpret the data addressing the association of MDR pathogens and community-onset pneumonia. Most recent clinical studies conclude that HCAP risk factor does not accurately identify resistant pathogens. Several risk factors related to MDR pathogens, including new ones that were not included in the original HCAP definition, have been described and different risk scores have been proposed. The present review focuses on the most recent literature assessing the importance of different risk factors for MDR pathogens in patients with pneumonia coming from the community. These included generally MDR risk factors, specific risk factors related to methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus or Pseudomonas aeruginosa and clinical scoring systems develop to assess the MDR risk factors and its application in clinical practice. Different MDR risk factors and prediction scores have been recently developed. However, further research is needed in order to help clinicians in distinguishing between different MDR pathogens causing pneumonia.

Associations of genetic risk scores based on adult adiposity pathways with childhood growth and adiposity measures.

PubMed

Monnereau, Claire; Vogelezang, Suzanne; Kruithof, Claudia J; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Felix, Janine F

2016-08-18

Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identified many loci and biological pathways that influence adult body mass index (BMI). We aimed to identify if biological pathways related to adult BMI also affect infant growth and childhood adiposity measures. We used data from a population-based prospective cohort study among 3,975 children with a mean age of 6 years. Genetic risk scores were constructed based on the 97 SNPs associated with adult BMI previously identified with GWAS and on 28 BMI related biological pathways based on subsets of these 97 SNPs. Outcomes were infant peak weight velocity, BMI at adiposity peak and age at adiposity peak, and childhood BMI, total fat mass percentage, android/gynoid fat ratio, and preperitoneal fat area. Analyses were performed using linear regression models. A higher overall adult BMI risk score was associated with infant BMI at adiposity peak and childhood BMI, total fat mass, android/gynoid fat ratio, and preperitoneal fat area (all p-values < 0.05). Analyses focused on specific biological pathways showed that the membrane proteins genetic risk score was associated with infant peak weight velocity, and the genetic risk scores related to neuronal developmental processes, hypothalamic processes, cyclicAMP, WNT-signaling, membrane proteins, monogenic obesity and/or energy homeostasis, glucose homeostasis, cell cycle, and muscle biology pathways were associated with childhood adiposity measures (all p-values <0.05). None of the pathways were associated with childhood preperitoneal fat area. A genetic risk score based on 97 SNPs related to adult BMI was associated with peak weight velocity during infancy and general and abdominal fat measurements at the age of 6 years. Risk scores based on genetic variants linked to specific biological pathways, including central nervous system and hypothalamic processes, influence body fat development from early life onwards.

Influence of Cardiovascular Risk in the Prediction and Timing of Cardiac Events After Exercise Echocardiogram Testing Without Ischemia.

PubMed

Velasco Del Castillo, Sonia; Antón Ladislao, Ane; Gómez Sánchez, Verónica; Onaindia Gandarias, José Juan; Cacicedo Fernández de Bobadilla, Ángela; Rodríguez Sánchez, Ibon; Laraudogoitia Zaldumbide, Eva

2017-09-01

There have been no analyses of the influence of cardiovascular risk as a predictor of events in patients with exercise echocardiography (EE) without ischemia. Our objective was to determine the predictors of cardiac events, paying special attention to cardiovascular risk. This study included 1640 patients with EE without ischemia. Of these, there were 1206 with no previously known coronary artery disease (CAD), whose risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event was estimated according to the European SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) risk assessment system, and 434 with known CAD. The primary endpoint was cardiac event-free survival (EFS) (cardiac death, nonfatal acute coronary syndrome, and coronary revascularization). After a median follow-up of 35 [23-54] months, no differences were found in cardiac EFS between patients with a SCORE ≥ 10 or diabetes and patients with previous CAD (89.8% vs 87.1%). In the first year, cardiac EFS was high in all groups (99.4% if SCORE < 5; 100% if 5-9; 98% if ≥ 10 or diabetes and 97% in patients with CAD). In the third year, cardiac EFS was similar in the group with SCORE ≥ 10 or diabetes (94.5%) and patients with CAD (91.1%, P = NS). In these patients, the annualized event rate was 2.8% and 2.55%, respectively, and was significantly higher than in groups with SCORE < 5 (0.6%) and SCORE 5-9 (0.12%). The most frequent events were non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome and late revascularization. Predictors of cardiac events were previous CAD, SCORE ≥ 10 or diabetes mellitus, creatinine clearance, left ventricular ejection fraction, and chest pain during EE. Initial outcome after an EE without ischemia is favorable but is subsequently modulated by cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Influences on Adaptive Planning to Reduce Flood Risks among Parishes in South Louisiana.

PubMed

Paille, Mary; Reams, Margaret; Argote, Jennifer; Lam, Nina S-N; Kirby, Ryan

2016-02-01

Residents of south Louisiana face a range of increasing, climate-related flood exposure risks that could be reduced through local floodplain management and hazard mitigation planning. A major incentive for community planning to reduce exposure to flood risks is offered by the Community Rating System (CRS) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP encourages local collective action by offering reduced flood insurance premiums for individual policy holders of communities where suggested risk-reducing measures have been implemented. This preliminary analysis examines the extent to which parishes (counties) in southern Louisiana have implemented the suggested policy actions and identifies key factors that account for variation in the implementation of the measures. More measures implemented results in higher CRS scores. Potential influences on scores include socioeconomic attributes of residents, government capacity, average elevation and past flood events. The results of multiple regression analysis indicate that higher CRS scores are associated most closely with higher median housing values. Furthermore, higher scores are found in parishes with more local municipalities that participate in the CRS program. The number of floods in the last five years and the revenue base of the parish does not appear to influence CRS scores. The results shed light on the conditions under which local adaptive planning to mitigate increasing flood risks is more likely to be implemented and offer insights for program administrators, researchers and community stakeholders.

Influences on Adaptive Planning to Reduce Flood Risks among Parishes in South Louisiana

PubMed Central

Paille, Mary; Reams, Margaret; Argote, Jennifer; Lam, Nina S.-N.; Kirby, Ryan

2016-01-01

Residents of south Louisiana face a range of increasing, climate-related flood exposure risks that could be reduced through local floodplain management and hazard mitigation planning. A major incentive for community planning to reduce exposure to flood risks is offered by the Community Rating System (CRS) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP encourages local collective action by offering reduced flood insurance premiums for individual policy holders of communities where suggested risk-reducing measures have been implemented. This preliminary analysis examines the extent to which parishes (counties) in southern Louisiana have implemented the suggested policy actions and identifies key factors that account for variation in the implementation of the measures. More measures implemented results in higher CRS scores. Potential influences on scores include socioeconomic attributes of residents, government capacity, average elevation and past flood events. The results of multiple regression analysis indicate that higher CRS scores are associated most closely with higher median housing values. Furthermore, higher scores are found in parishes with more local municipalities that participate in the CRS program. The number of floods in the last five years and the revenue base of the parish does not appear to influence CRS scores. The results shed light on the conditions under which local adaptive planning to mitigate increasing flood risks is more likely to be implemented and offer insights for program administrators, researchers and community stakeholders. PMID:27330828

Prognostic factors and scoring system for survival in colonic perforation.

PubMed

Komatsu, Shuhei; Shimomatsuya, Takumi; Nakajima, Masayuki; Amaya, Hirokazu; Kobuchi, Taketsune; Shiraishi, Susumu; Konishi, Sayuri; Ono, Susumu; Maruhashi, Kazuhiro

2005-01-01

No ideal and generally accepted prognostic factors and scoring systems exist to determine the prognosis of peritonitis associated with colonic perforation. This study was designed to investigate prognostic factors and evaluate the various scoring systems to allow identification of high-risk patients. Between 1996 and 2003, excluding iatrogenic and trauma cases, 26 consecutive patients underwent emergency operations for colorectal perforation and were selected for this retrospective study. Several clinical factors were analyzed as possible predictive factors, and APACHE II, SOFA, MPI, and MOF scores were calculated. The overall mortality was 26.9%. Compared with the survivors, non-survivors were found more frequently in Hinchey's stage III-IV, a low preoperative marker of pH, base excess (BE), and a low postoperative marker of white blood cell count, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, and renal output (24h). According to the logistic regression model, BE was a significant independent variable. Concerning the prognostic scoring systems, an APACHE II score of 19, a SOFA score of 8, an MPI score of 30, and an MOF score of 7 or more were significantly related to poor prognosis. Preoperative BE and postoperative white blood cell count were reliable prognostic factors and early classification using prognostic scoring systems at specific points in the disease process are useful to improve our understanding of the problems involved.

Cardiovascular risk scores for coronary atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Yalcin, Murat; Kardesoglu, Ejder; Aparci, Mustafa; Isilak, Zafer; Uz, Omer; Yiginer, Omer; Ozmen, Namik; Cingozbay, Bekir Yilmaz; Uzun, Mehmet; Cebeci, Bekir Sitki

2012-10-01

The objective of this study was to compare frequently used cardiovascular risk scores in predicting the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 3-vessel disease. In 350 consecutive patients (218 men and 132 women) who underwent coronary angiography, the cardiovascular risk level was determined using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Modified Framingham Risk Score (MFRS), the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) score, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic curves showed that FRS had more predictive value than the other scores for CAD (area under curve, 0.76, P < or = 0.001), but all scores had good specificity and positive predictive value. For 3-vessel disease, the FRS had better predictive value than the other scores (area under curve, 0.74, P < or = 0.001), but all scores had good specificity and negative predictive value. The risk scores (FRS, MFRS, PROCAM, and SCORE) may predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.The FRS had better predictive value than the other scores.

Impact of care management processes and integration of care on blood pressure control in diabetes.

PubMed

Wong, Ken; Boulanger, Luke; Smalarz, Amy; Wu, Ning; Fraser, Kimberly; Wogen, Jenifer

2013-02-27

Fragmentation within health care systems may negatively impact the quality of chronic disease patient care. We sought to evaluate the relationship between care management processes (CMP), integration of services, and blood pressure (BP) control among diabetic patients. Retrospective chart reviews were performed for a random sample of adult diabetic hypertensive patients (n = 2,162) from 28 physician organizations in the United States (US). A modified version of the Physician Practice Connection Readiness Survey (PPC-RS) was completed by the chief medical officer at each site. The PPC-RS measured health system organization, delivery system redesign, decision support, clinical information systems, and self-management support, and an integration scale measured structure, functions, and financial risk. Correlations between PPC and integration scores and BP outcomes were assessed using Spearman correlation coefficients. Approximately 39.9% of diabetic patients had controlled BP. Mean total PPC score across sites was 55, with highest mean scores for health system organization (81), followed by design support (60), clinical information systems (57), self-management support (39), and delivery system redesign (39). Mean integration score was 46 (SD 27, range 4-93), and means of subscores were 64 for structure, 33 for financial risk, and 42 for function. Clinical information systems subscore was correlated with uncontrolled BP (r = -0.38, p < 0.05), while association with total PPC score was strong but not significant at p < 0.05 (r = -0.32). Total integration score and the structure subscore were significantly correlated with BP control (r = 0.38, p < 0.05, and r = 0.49, p < 0.01). This study suggests that CMP and service integration may be associated with better outcomes in diabetes, though results were mixed and limited by a small number of participating sites. Primary care implementation of integrated electronic medical records may have a beneficial effect on patient outcomes for diabetes and other chronic diseases.

Validation of Boey's score in predicting morbidity and mortality in peptic perforation peritonitis in Northwestern India.

PubMed

Agarwal, Abhishek; Jain, Sanchit; Meena, L N; Jain, Sumita A; Agarwal, Lakshman

2015-01-01

The major complications of peptic ulcer are hemorrhage, perforation and gastric outlet obstruction with perforation occurring in about 2-10% of patients. Patients with perforated peptic ulcer still have a high rate of morbidity and mortality and to improve the outcomes it is important to stratify the patients into different categories. To evaluate the accuracy of Boey scoring system in predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients operated for peptic perforation. It was a prospective observational single centre study conducted at SMS Medical College and Hospital, Jaipur, from October 2011 to October 2012 on 180 patients undergoing open surgery for peptic ulcer perforation. Postoperative outcomes in terms of recovery and complications were studied. For prediction of morbidity and mortality by Boey risk stratification, the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of each risk score were compared with the outcomes of "0" risk score. The mortality rate increased progressively with increasing numbers of the Boey score: 1.9%, 7.1%, 31.7% and 40% for 0, 1, 2, and 3 scores, respectively (p < 0.001). The morbidity rates for 0, 1, 2, and 3 Boey scores were 13%, 45.7%, 70.7% and 73.3% respectively (p < 0.001). Boey score is a useful tool for assessing the prognosis of operated cases of peptic perforation and helps in the assessment of mortality and morbidity of these patients.

Burnout among workers in a pediatric health care system.

PubMed

Jacobs, Linda M; Nawaz, Muhammad K; Hood, Joyce L; Bae, Sejong

2012-08-01

Burnout among health care workers is recognized as an organizational risk contributing to absenteeism, presenteeism, excessive turnover, or illness, and may also manifest as decreased patient satisfaction. Pediatric health care may add stressors including worried parents of ill or dying children, child custody issues, child abuse, and workplace violence. The purpose of this study was to measure burnout among workers in a regional pediatric health care system and report whether burnout in a pediatric health care system is different from previously published data on human service workers. The Maslach Burnout Inventory-Human Services Survey (MBI-HSS) and the Copenhagen Burnout Inventory (CBI) were used to measure burnout. Pediatric health care workers expressed significantly less burnout as compared to published MBI-HSS scores and client-related CBI scores. Personal burnout CBI scores were not different, but work-related CBI scores were significantly higher than normative scores. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

PubMed

Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

2015-03-01

Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

The Healthy Beverage Index Is Associated with Reduced Cardiometabolic Risk in US Adults: A Preliminary Analysis.

PubMed

Duffey, Kiyah J; Davy, Brenda M

2015-10-01

Beverage recommendations exist, but few evaluate overall beverage intake quality. Our objective was to develop a scoring algorithm for assessing beverage intake quality among US adults (aged ≥19 years), and to examine the association between overall beverage quality and cardiometabolic risk. We developed a scoring algorithm, similar to the Healthy Eating Index-2010, using recommendations for total beverage energy, meeting fluid requirements, and consuming within recommended limits for beverage subgroups (eg, low-fat milk, fruit juice). Multiple scoring systems were evaluated. The final scoring system, which consisted of 10 components, was applied to the average of 2 days of 24-hour dietary intake data for adults (aged ≥19 years) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 2005-2010. Poisson regression models stratified by sex and body mass index multivariables were used to examine the cross-sectional association between the Healthy Beverage Index (HBI) score and cardiometabolic outcomes. The 10-item index had a mean±standard deviation score of 63±16 from a possible 100 points. Each 10-point higher HBI score was associated with lower odds ratios for hypertension (men and women); high fasting insulin level, high fasting glucose level, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (women and overweight/obese men), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level (women), and high C-reactive protein level (men). We found positive associations between higher HBI scores and more favorable lipid profiles; hypertension risk; and, among men, C-reactive protein levels. These preliminary results suggest that the HBI could be a valuable tool to evaluate overall beverage intake quality in adults. More research is needed to understand whether improvements in beverage quality and, thus, HBI score, are associated with beneficial changes in health. Copyright © 2015 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rockall score in predicting outcomes of elderly patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

PubMed Central

Wang, Chang-Yuan; Qin, Jian; Wang, Jing; Sun, Chang-Yi; Cao, Tao; Zhu, Dan-Dan

2013-01-01

AIM: To validate the clinical Rockall score in predicting outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and mortality) in elderly patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). METHODS: A retrospective analysis was undertaken in 341 patients admitted to the emergency room and Intensive Care Unit of Xuanwu Hospital of Capital Medical University with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The Rockall scores were calculated, and the association between clinical Rockall scores and patient outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and mortality) was assessed. Based on the Rockall scores, patients were divided into three risk categories: low risk ≤ 3, moderate risk 3-4, high risk ≥ 4, and the percentages of rebleeding/death/surgery in each risk category were compared. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to assess the validity of the Rockall system in predicting rebleeding, surgery and mortality of patients with AUGIB. RESULTS: A positive linear correlation between clinical Rockall scores and patient outcomes in terms of rebleeding, surgery and mortality was observed (r = 0.962, 0.955 and 0.946, respectively, P = 0.001). High clinical Rockall scores > 3 were associated with adverse outcomes (rebleeding, surgery and death). There was a significant correlation between high Rockall scores and the occurrence of rebleeding, surgery and mortality in the entire patient population (χ2 = 49.29, 23.10 and 27.64, respectively, P = 0.001). For rebleeding, the area under the ROC curve was 0.788 (95%CI: 0.726-0.849, P = 0.001); For surgery, the area under the ROC curve was 0.752 (95%CI: 0.679-0.825, P = 0.001) and for mortality, the area under the ROC curve was 0.787 (95%CI: 0.716-0.859, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The Rockall score is clinically useful, rapid and accurate in predicting rebleeding, surgery and mortality outcomes in elderly patients with AUGIB. PMID:23801840

Validation of the MARS: a combined physiological and laboratory risk prediction tool for 5- to 7-day in-hospital mortality.

PubMed

Öhman, M C; Atkins, T E H; Cooksley, T; Brabrand, M

2018-06-01

The Medical Admission Risk System (MARS) uses 11 physiological and laboratory data and had promising results in its derivation study for predicting 5- and 7- day mortality. To perform an external independent validation of the MARS score. An unplanned secondary cohort study. Patients admitted to the medical admission unit at The Hospital of South West Jutland were included from 2 October 2008 until 19 February 2009 and 23 February 2010 until 26 May 2010 were analysed. Validation of the MARS scores using 5- and 7- day mortality was the primary endpoint. Patients of 5858 were included in the study. Patients of 2923 (49.9%) were women with a median age of 65 years (15-107). The MARS score had an area under the receiving operator characteristic curve of 0.858 (95% CI: 0.831-0.884) for 5-day mortality and 0.844 (0.818-0.870) for 7 day mortality with poor calibration for both outcomes. The MARS score had excellent discriminatory power but poor calibration in predicting both 5- and 7-day mortality. The development of accurate combination physiological/laboratory data risk scores has the potential to improve the recognition of at risk patients.

Tracking Success in Large Introductory Classes using Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, Thomas H.

2011-01-01

A common problem frequently encountered in large introductory classes is the anonymity experienced by students. An effort is underway at Ball State University to explore the impact of technology on reducing this anonymity and improving student performance and success. In preparation for this study, performance and success measures for students in a previous class have been examined to provide background for construction of a model for formal testing and a control group for comparison of future results. Student performance measures obtained early in the course and final course grades were examined to identify potential early warning indicators that might be used to plan interventions much earlier than the traditional midterm course reports used to alert freshmen at academic risk. Class participation scores were based on data obtained with a personal response system (i>clicker). The scores were scaled to reflect about 80% comprehension and 20% attendance. Homework scores were obtained using the LON-CAPA Course Management System and instructional materials created by the author. Substantial linear correlations exist between 1) Exam 1 Scores after Four Weeks and 2) Raw Class Participation Scores for the First Six Weeks and the Final Course Score. A more modest linear correlation was found between 3) Homework Scores for First Six Weeks and Final Course Score. Of these three measures, only Class Participation Scores identified all students who ultimately received course grades lower than C. Several students scored in the danger zone according to Homework and Class Participation Scores but earned course grades of C or better. It appears that an early warning plan based on Class Participation Scores would permit effective identification of at-risk students early in the course.

Risk Factors and Predictive Clinical Scores for Asthma Exacerbations in Childhood

PubMed Central

Forno, Erick; Fuhlbrigge, Anne; Soto-Quirós, Manuel E.; Avila, Lydiana; Raby, Benjamin A.; Brehm, John; Sylvia, Jody M.; Weiss, Scott T.

2010-01-01

Background: Asthma is a major public health problem that affects millions of children worldwide, and exacerbations account for most of its morbidity and costs. Primary-care providers lack efficient tools to identify children at high risk for exacerbations. We aimed to construct a clinical score to help providers to identify such children. Methods: Our main outcome was severe asthma exacerbation, which was defined as any hospitalization, urgent visit, or systemic steroid course for asthma in the previous year, in children. A clinical score, consisting of a checklist questionnaire made up of 17 yes-no questions regarding asthma symptoms, use of medications and health-care services, and history, was built and validated in a cross-sectional study of Costa Rican children with asthma. It was then evaluated using data from the Childhood Asthma Management Program (CAMP), a longitudinal trial cohort of North American children. Results: Compared with children at average risk for an exacerbation in the Costa Rican validation set, the odds of an exacerbation among children in the low-risk (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.1-0.4) and high-risk (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 1.5-19.2) score categories were significantly reduced and increased, respectively. In CAMP, the hazard ratios for an exacerbation after 1-year follow-up in the low-risk and high-risk groups were 0.6 (95% CI, 0.5-0.7) and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.4), respectively, with similar results at 2 years. Conclusions: The proposed Asthma Exacerbation Clinical Score is simple to use and effective at identifying children at high and low risk for asthma exacerbations. The tool can easily be used in primary-care settings. PMID:20472862

Risk factors and predictive clinical scores for asthma exacerbations in childhood.

PubMed

Forno, Erick; Fuhlbrigge, Anne; Soto-Quirós, Manuel E; Avila, Lydiana; Raby, Benjamin A; Brehm, John; Sylvia, Jody M; Weiss, Scott T; Celedón, Juan C

2010-11-01

Asthma is a major public health problem that affects millions of children worldwide, and exacerbations account for most of its morbidity and costs. Primary-care providers lack efficient tools to identify children at high risk for exacerbations. We aimed to construct a clinical score to help providers to identify such children. Our main outcome was severe asthma exacerbation, which was defined as any hospitalization, urgent visit, or systemic steroid course for asthma in the previous year, in children. A clinical score, consisting of a checklist questionnaire made up of 17 yes-no questions regarding asthma symptoms, use of medications and health-care services, and history, was built and validated in a cross-sectional study of Costa Rican children with asthma. It was then evaluated using data from the Childhood Asthma Management Program (CAMP), a longitudinal trial cohort of North American children. Compared with children at average risk for an exacerbation in the Costa Rican validation set, the odds of an exacerbation among children in the low-risk (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.1-0.4) and high-risk (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 1.5-19.2) score categories were significantly reduced and increased, respectively. In CAMP, the hazard ratios for an exacerbation after 1-year follow-up in the low-risk and high-risk groups were 0.6 (95% CI, 0.5-0.7) and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.4), respectively, with similar results at 2 years. The proposed Asthma Exacerbation Clinical Score is simple to use and effective at identifying children at high and low risk for asthma exacerbations. The tool can easily be used in primary-care settings.

Socioeconomic factors and survival in patients with non-metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Xu, Cheng; Chen, Yu-Pei; Liu, Xu; Tang, Ling-Long; Chen, Lei; Mao, Yan-Ping; Zhang, Yuan; Guo, Rui; Zhou, Guan-Qun; Li, Wen-Fei; Lin, Ai-Hua; Sun, Ying; Ma, Jun

2017-06-01

The effect of socioeconomic factors on receipt of definitive treatment and survival outcomes in non-metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) remains unclear. Eligible patients (n = 37 995) were identified from the United States Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database between 2007 and 2012. Socioeconomic factors (i.e., median household income, education level, unemployment rate, insurance status, marital status and residence) were included in univariate/multivariate Cox regression analysis; validated factors were used to generate nomograms for cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS), and a prognostic score model for risk stratification. Low- and high-risk groups were compared for all cancer subsites. Impact of race/ethnicity on survival was investigated in each risk group. Marital status, median household income and insurance status were included in the nomograms for CSS and OS, which had higher c-indexes than the 6th edition TNM staging system (all P < 0.001). Based on three disadvantageous socioeconomic factors (i.e., unmarried status, uninsured status, median household income

Relationship between lower urinary tract symptoms and cardiovascular risk scores including Framingham risk score and ACC/AHA risk score.

PubMed

Lee, Bora; Lee, Sang Wook; Kang, Hye Rim; Kim, Dae In; Sun, Hwa Yeon; Kim, Jae Heon

2018-01-01

This study attempted to investigate the association between lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) and CVD risk scores and to overcome the limitations of previous relevant studies. A total of 2994 ostensibly healthy males, who participated in a voluntary health check in a health promotion center from January 2010 to December 2014, were reviewed. CVD risk scores were calculated using Framingham risk score and American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) score. Correlation and multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict the CVD risk severity were performed. Correlation between total IPSS with CVD risk scores demonstrated significant positive associations, which showed higher correlation with ACC/AHA score than the Framingham score (r = 0.18 vs 0.09, respectively). For ACC/AHA score, the partial correlation after adjustment of body mass index (BMI) showed significant positive correlations between all LUTS parameters and PSA. For the Framingham score, all variables, except IPSS Q2 and IPSS Q6, showed significant positive correlations. After adjustment of BMI, prostate volume and PSA, only the severe LUTS group showed significant relationship with intermediate-high CVD risk severity, as compared with normal LUTS group (OR = 2.97, 95%CI (1.35-6.99)). Using two validated CVD risk calculators, we observed that LUTS is closely associated with future CVD risk. To predict the intermediate-high CVD risk severity, severe LUTS was a sentinel sign, the presence of which warrants the importance of an earlier screening for CVD. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Validation of COLA score for predicting wound infection in patients undergoing surgery for rectal cancer.

PubMed

Saylam, Baris; Tez, Mesut; Comcali, Bulent; Vural, Veli; Duzgun, Arife Polat; Ozer, Mehmet Vasfi; Coskun, Faruk

2017-01-01

The purpose of our study was to estimate the incidence of SSI (Surgical site infection) and the effect of COLA (contamination, obesity, laparotomy and ASA grade) score on SSI in patients undergoing rectal surgical procedures for rectal cancer. A total of 92 patients who underwent operation for rectum cancer were enrolled in this study. Wound surveillance was performed in all patients by a staff surgeon identified infected wounds during the hospital stay, and collected information for up to 30 days after operation. The overall rate of incisional SSI and organ/space SSI was 22.8% and 7.6% respectively. Surgical site infection rates were 14.2%, 20.58%, 40.7%, 57.1% for COLA 1,2,3 and 4 scores respectively. The area under the receiver/ operator characteristic curve for the score was 0,660. COLA scoring systems predict, with reasonable accuracy, the risk of SSI in rectal cancer patients undergoing elective rectal surgery. COLA score Rectal surgery, Surgical site infection, Risk prediction, Wound infection.

Using a quantitative risk register to promote learning from a patient safety reporting system.

PubMed

Mansfield, James G; Caplan, Robert A; Campos, John S; Dreis, David F; Furman, Cathie

2015-02-01

Patient safety reporting systems are now used in most health care delivery organizations. These systems, such as the one in use at Virginia Mason (Seattle) since 2002, can provide valuable reports of risk and harm from the front lines of patient care. In response to the challenge of how to quantify and prioritize safety opportunities, a risk register system was developed and implemented. Basic risk register concepts were refined to provide a systematic way to understand risks reported by staff. The risk register uses a comprehensive taxonomy of patient risk and algorithmically assigns each patient safety report to 1 of 27 risk categories in three major domains (Evaluation, Treatment, and Critical Interactions). For each category, a composite score was calculated on the basis of event rate, harm, and cost. The composite scores were used to identify the "top five" risk categories, and patient safety reports in these categories were analyzed in greater depth to find recurrent patterns of risk and associated opportunities for improvement. The top five categories of risk were easy to identify and had distinctive "profiles" of rate, harm, and cost. The ability to categorize and rank risks across multiple dimensions yielded insights not previously available. These results were shared with leadership and served as input for planning quality and safety initiatives. This approach provided actionable input for the strategic planning process, while at the same time strengthening the Virginia Mason culture of safety. The quantitative patient safety risk register serves as one solution to the challenge of extracting valuable safety lessons from large numbers of incident reports and could profitably be adopted by other organizations.

Gaming in risk-adjusted mortality rates: effect of misclassification of risk factors in the benchmarking of cardiac surgery risk-adjusted mortality rates.

PubMed

Siregar, Sabrina; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Versteegh, Michel I M; Noyez, Luc; ter Burg, Willem Jan P P; Bots, Michiel L; van der Graaf, Yolanda; van Herwerden, Lex A

2013-03-01

Upcoding or undercoding of risk factors could affect the benchmarking of risk-adjusted mortality rates. The aim was to investigate the effect of misclassification of risk factors on the benchmarking of mortality rates after cardiac surgery. A prospective cohort was used comprising all adult cardiac surgery patients in all 16 cardiothoracic centers in The Netherlands from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2009. A random effects model, including the logistic European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) was used to benchmark the in-hospital mortality rates. We simulated upcoding and undercoding of 5 selected variables in the patients from 1 center. These patients were selected randomly (nondifferential misclassification) or by the EuroSCORE (differential misclassification). In the random patients, substantial misclassification was required to affect benchmarking: a 1.8-fold increase in prevalence of the 4 risk factors changed an underperforming center into an average performing one. Upcoding of 1 variable required even more. When patients with the greatest EuroSCORE were upcoded (ie, differential misclassification), a 1.1-fold increase was sufficient: moderate left ventricular function from 14.2% to 15.7%, poor left ventricular function from 8.4% to 9.3%, recent myocardial infarction from 7.9% to 8.6%, and extracardiac arteriopathy from 9.0% to 9.8%. Benchmarking using risk-adjusted mortality rates can be manipulated by misclassification of the EuroSCORE risk factors. Misclassification of random patients or of single variables will have little effect. However, limited upcoding of multiple risk factors in high-risk patients can greatly influence benchmarking. To minimize "gaming," the prevalence of all risk factors should be carefully monitored. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Cyber Contingency Analysis version 1.x

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Contingency analysis based approach for quantifying and examining the resiliency of a cyber system in respect to confidentiality, integrity and availability. A graph representing an organization's cyber system and related resources is used for the availability contingency analysis. The mission critical paths associated with an organization are used to determine the consequences of a potential contingency. A node (or combination of nodes) are removed from the graph to analyze a particular contingency. The value of all mission critical paths that are disrupted by that contingency are used to quantify its severity. A total severity score can be calculated based onmore » the complete list of all these contingencies. A simple n1 analysis can be done in which only one node is removed at a time for the analysis. We can also compute nk analysis, where k is the number of nodes to simultaneously remove for analysis. A contingency risk score can also be computed, which takes the probability of the contingencies into account. In addition to availability, we can also quantify confidentiality and integrity scores for the system. These treat user accounts as potential contingencies. The amount (and type) of files that an account can read to is used to compute the confidentiality score. The amount (and type) of files that an account can write to is used to compute the integrity score. As with availability analysis, we can use this information to compute total severity scores in regards to confidentiality and integrity. We can also take probability into account to compute associated risk scores.« less

Predicted 25(OH)D score and colorectal cancer risk according to vitamin D receptor expression.

PubMed

Jung, Seungyoun; Qian, Zhi Rong; Yamauchi, Mai; Bertrand, Kimberly A; Fitzgerald, Kathryn C; Inamura, Kentaro; Kim, Sun A; Mima, Kosuke; Sukawa, Yasutaka; Zhang, Xuehong; Wang, Molin; Smith-Warner, Stephanie A; Wu, Kana; Fuchs, Charles S; Chan, Andrew T; Giovannucci, Edward L; Ng, Kimmie; Cho, Eunyoung; Ogino, Shuji; Nishihara, Reiko

2014-08-01

Despite accumulating evidence for the preventive effect of vitamin D on colorectal carcinogenesis, its precise mechanisms remain unclear. We hypothesized that vitamin D was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer with high-level vitamin D receptor (VDR) expression, but not with risk of tumor with low-level VDR expression. Among 140,418 participants followed from 1986 through 2008 in the Nurses' Health Study and the Health Professionals' Follow-up Study, we identified 1,059 incident colorectal cancer cases with tumor molecular data. The predicted 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] score was developed using the known determinants of plasma 25(OH)D. We estimated the HR for cancer subtypes using the duplication method Cox proportional hazards model. A higher predicted 25(OH)D score was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer irrespective of VDR expression level (P(heterogeneity) for subtypes = 0.75). Multivariate HRs (95% confidence intervals) comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of predicted 25(OH)D scores were 0.48 (0.30-0.78) for VDR-negative tumor and 0.56 (0.42-0.75) for VDR-positive tumor. Similarly, the significant inverse associations of the predicted 25(OH)D score with colorectal cancer risk did not significantly differ by KRAS, BRAF, or PIK3CA status (P(heterogeneity) for subtypes ≥ 0.22). A higher predicted vitamin D score was significantly associated with a lower colorectal cancer risk, regardless of VDR status and other molecular features examined. The preventive effect of vitamin D on colorectal carcinogenesis may not totally depend on tumor factors. Host factors (such as local and systemic immunity) may need to be considered. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

Risk score to predict the outcome of patients with cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis.

PubMed

Ferro, José M; Bacelar-Nicolau, Helena; Rodrigues, Teresa; Bacelar-Nicolau, Leonor; Canhão, Patrícia; Crassard, Isabelle; Bousser, Marie-Germaine; Dutra, Aurélio Pimenta; Massaro, Ayrton; Mackowiack-Cordiolani, Marie-Anne; Leys, Didier; Fontes, João; Stam, Jan; Barinagarrementeria, Fernando

2009-01-01

Around 15% of patients die or become dependent after cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis (CVT). We used the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis (ISCVT) sample (624 patients, with a median follow-up time of 478 days) to develop a Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict outcome, dichotomised by a modified Rankin Scale score >2. From the model hazard ratios, a risk score was derived and a cut-off point selected. The model and the score were tested in 2 validation samples: (1) the prospective Cerebral Venous Thrombosis Portuguese Collaborative Study Group (VENOPORT) sample with 91 patients; (2) a sample of 169 consecutive CVT patients admitted to 5 ISCVT centres after the end of the ISCVT recruitment period. Sensitivity, specificity, c statistics and overall efficiency to predict outcome at 6 months were calculated. The model (hazard ratios: malignancy 4.53; coma 4.19; thrombosis of the deep venous system 3.03; mental status disturbance 2.18; male gender 1.60; intracranial haemorrhage 1.42) had overall efficiencies of 85.1, 84.4 and 90.0%, in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Using the risk score (range from 0 to 9) with a cut-off of >or=3 points, overall efficiency was 85.4, 84.4 and 90.1% in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity in the combined samples were 96.1 and 13.6%, respectively. The CVT risk score has a good estimated overall rate of correct classifications in both validation samples, but its specificity is low. It can be used to avoid unnecessary or dangerous interventions in low-risk patients, and may help to identify high-risk CVT patients. (c) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts

PubMed Central

de las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine

2016-01-01

Background The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. Methods We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994–1995) and S4 (1999–2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000–2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. Results The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. Conclusions The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany. PMID:27732641

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts.

PubMed

de Las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine; Mahabadi, Amir Abbas; Koenig, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994-1995) and S4 (1999-2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000-2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany.

The Pediatric Risk of Mortality Score: Update 2015

PubMed Central

Pollack, Murray M.; Holubkov, Richard; Funai, Tomohiko; Dean, J. Michael; Berger, John T.; Wessel, David L.; Meert, Kathleen; Berg, Robert A.; Newth, Christopher J. L.; Harrison, Rick E.; Carcillo, Joseph; Dalton, Heidi; Shanley, Thomas; Jenkins, Tammara L.; Tamburro, Robert

2016-01-01

Objectives Severity of illness measures have long been used in pediatric critical care. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is a physiologically based score used to quantify physiologic status, and when combined with other independent variables, it can compute expected mortality risk and expected morbidity risk. Although the physiologic ranges for the Pediatric Risk of Mortality variables have not changed, recent Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection improvements have been made to adapt to new practice patterns, minimize bias, and reduce potential sources of error. These include changing the outcome to hospital survival/death for the first PICU admission only, shortening the data collection period and altering the Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection period for patients admitted for “optimizing” care before cardiac surgery or interventional catheterization. This analysis incorporates those changes, assesses the potential for Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable subcategories to improve score performance, and recalibrates the Pediatric Risk of Mortality score, placing the algorithms (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) in the public domain. Design Prospective cohort study from December 4, 2011, to April 7, 2013. Measurements and Main Results Among 10,078 admissions, the unadjusted mortality rate was 2.7% (site range, 1.3–5.0%). Data were divided into derivation (75%) and validation (25%) sets. The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality prediction algorithm (Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV) includes the same Pediatric Risk of Mortality physiologic variable ranges with the subcategories of neurologic and nonneurologic Pediatric Risk of Mortality scores, age, admission source, cardiopulmonary arrest within 24 hours before admission, cancer, and low-risk systems of primary dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.88 ± 0.013 and 0.90 ± 0.018, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit statistics indicated adequate model fit for both the development (p = 0.39) and validation (p = 0.50) sets. Conclusions The new Pediatric Risk of Mortality data collection methods include significant improvements that minimize the potential for bias and errors, and the new Pediatric Risk of Mortality IV algorithm for survival and death has excellent prediction performance. PMID:26492059

Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of correlation between a simple, non-laboratory-based CVD risk score and commonly-used laboratory-based risk scores. The burden of CVD mortality risk was high for men and women in South Africa. The policy and clinical implications are that fast, low-cost screening tools can lead to similar risk assessment results compared to time- and resource-intensive approaches. Until setting-specific cohort studies can derive and validate country-specific risk scores, non-laboratory-based CVD risk assessment could be an effective and efficient primary CVD screening approach in South Africa. PMID:23880010

Atrial fibrillation incrementally increases dementia risk across all CHADS2 and CHA2DS2VASc strata in patients receiving long-term warfarin.

PubMed

Graves, Kevin G; May, Heidi T; Jacobs, Victoria; Bair, Tami L; Stevens, Scott M; Woller, Scott C; Crandall, Brian G; Cutler, Michael J; Day, John D; Mallender, Charles; Osborn, Jeffrey S; Peter Weiss, J; Jared Bunch, T

2017-06-01

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at higher risk for developing dementia. Warfarin is a common therapy for the prevention of thromboembolism in AF, valve replacement, and thrombosis patients. The extent to which AF itself increases dementia risk remains unknown. A total 6030 patients with no history of dementia and chronically anticoagulated with warfarin were studied. Warfarin management was provided through a Clinical Pharmacy Anticoagulation Service. Patients were stratified by warfarin indication of AF (n=3015) and non-AF (n=3015) and matched by propensity score (±0.01). Patients were stratified by the congestive heart failure, hypertension, age >75 years, diabetes, stroke (CHADS 2 ) score calculated at the time of warfarin initiation and followed for incident dementia. The average age of the AF cohort was 69.3±11.2 years, and 52.7% were male; average age of non-AF cohort was 69.3±10.9 years, and 51.5% were male. Increasing CHADS 2 score was associated with increased dementia incidence, P trend=.004. When stratified by warfarin indication, AF patients had an increased risk of dementia incidence. After multivariable adjustment, AF patients continued to display a significantly increased risk of dementia when compared with non-AF patients across all CHADS 2 scores strata. In patients receiving long-term warfarin therapy, dementia risk increased with increasing CHADS 2 scores. However, the presence of AF was associated with higher rates of dementia across all CHADS 2 score strata. These data suggest that AF contributes to the risk of dementia and that this risk is not solely attributable to anticoagulant use. Dementia may be an end manifestation of a systemic disease state, and AF likely contributes to its progression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of the "Pediatric Risk of Nosocomial Sepsis (PRiNS)" score for health care-associated infections in a medical pediatric intensive care unit of a developing economy--a prospective observational cohort study.

PubMed

Saptharishi, L G; Jayashree, Muralidharan; Singhi, Sunit

2016-04-01

Given the high burden of health care-associated infections (HAIs) in resource-limited settings, there is a tendency toward overdiagnosis/treatment. This study was designed to create an easy-to-use, dynamic, bedside risk stratification model for classifying children based on their risk of developing HAIs during their pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) stay, to aid judicious resource utilization. A prospective, observational cohort study was conducted in the 12-bed PICU of a large Indian tertiary care hospital between January and October 2011. A total of 412 consecutive admissions, aged 1 month to 12 years with PICU stay greater than 48 hours were enrolled. Independent predictors for HAIs identified using multivariate regression analysis were combined to create a novel scoring system. Performance and calibration of score were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, respectively. Internal validation was done. Age (<5 years), Pediatric Risk of Mortality III (24 hours) score, presence of indwelling catheters, need for intubation, albumin infusion, immunomodulator, and prior antibiotic use (≥4) were independent predictors of HAIs. This model, with area under the ROC curve of 0.87, at a cutoff of 15, had a negative predictive value of 89.9% with overall accuracy of 79.3%. It reduced classification errors from 29.8% to 20.7%. All 7 predictors retained their statistical significance after bootstrapping, confirming the internal validity of the score. The "Pediatric Risk of Nosocomial Sepsis" score can reliably classify children into high- and low-risk groups, based on their risk of developing HAIs in the PICU of a resource-limited setting. In view of its high sensitivity and specificity, diagnostic and therapeutic interventions may be directed away from the low-risk group, ensuring effective utilization of limited resources. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stroke prevention with oral anticoagulation in older people with atrial fibrillation - a pragmatic approach.

PubMed

Ali, Ali; Bailey, Claire; Abdelhafiz, Ahmed H

2012-08-01

With advancing age, the prevalence of both stroke and non valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is increasing. NVAF in old age has a high embolic potential if not anticoagulated. Oral anticoagulation therapy is cost effective in older people with NVAF due to their high base line stroke risk. The current stroke and bleeding risk scoring schemes have been based on complex scoring systems that are difficult to apply in clinical practice. Both scoring schemes include similar risk factors for ischemic and bleeding events which may lead to confusion in clinical decision making to balance the risks of bleeding against the risks of stroke, thereby limiting the applicability of such schemes. The difficulty in application of such schemes combined with physicians' fear of inducing bleeding complications has resulted in under use of anticoagulation therapy in older people. As older people (≥75 years) with NVAF are all at high risk of stroke, we are suggesting a pragmatic approach based on a yes/no decision rather than a risk scoring stratification which involves an opt out rather an opt in approach unless there is a contraindication for oral anticoagulation. Antiplatelet agents should not be an alternative option for antithrombotic treatment in older people with NVAF due to lack of efficacy and the potential of being used as an excuse of not prescribing anticoagulation. Bleeding risk should be assessed on individual basis and the decision to anticoagulate should include patients' views.

Stroke Prevention with Oral Anticoagulation in Older People with Atrial Fibrillation - A Pragmatic Approach

PubMed Central

Ali, Ali; Bailey, Claire; Abdelhafiz, Ahmed H

2012-01-01

With advancing age, the prevalence of both stroke and non valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is increasing. NVAF in old age has a high embolic potential if not anticoagulated. Oral anticoagulation therapy is cost effective in older people with NVAF due to their high base line stroke risk. The current stroke and bleeding risk scoring schemes have been based on complex scoring systems that are difficult to apply in clinical practice. Both scoring schemes include similar risk factors for ischemic and bleeding events which may lead to confusion in clinical decision making to balance the risks of bleeding against the risks of stroke, thereby limiting the applicability of such schemes. The difficulty in application of such schemes combined with physicians’ fear of inducing bleeding complications has resulted in under use of anticoagulation therapy in older people. As older people (≥75 years) with NVAF are all at high risk of stroke, we are suggesting a pragmatic approach based on a yes/no decision rather than a risk scoring stratification which involves an opt out rather an opt in approach unless there is a contraindication for oral anticoagulation. Antiplatelet agents should not be an alternative option for antithrombotic treatment in older people with NVAF due to lack of efficacy and the potential of being used as an excuse of not prescribing anticoagulation. Bleeding risk should be assessed on individual basis and the decision to anticoagulate should include patients’ views. PMID:23185715

Risk stratification in patients with advanced heart failure requiring biventricular assist device support as a bridge to cardiac transplantation.

PubMed

Cheng, Richard K; Deng, Mario C; Tseng, Chi-hong; Shemin, Richard J; Kubak, Bernard M; MacLellan, W Robb

2012-08-01

Prior studies have identified risk factors for survival in patients with end-stage heart failure (HF) requiring left ventricular assist device (LVAD) support. However, patients with biventricular HF may represent a unique cohort. We retrospectively evaluated a consecutive cohort of 113 adult, end-stage HF patients at University of California Los Angeles Medical Center who required BIVAD support between 2000 and 2009. Survival to transplant was 66.4%, with 1-year actuarial survival of 62.8%. All patients were Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) Level 1 or 2 and received Thoratec (Pleasanton, CA) paracorporeal BIVAD as a bridge to transplant. Univariate analyses showed dialysis use, ventilator use, extracorporal membrane oxygenation use, low cardiac output, preserved LV ejection fraction (restrictive physiology), normal-to-high sodium, low platelet count, low total cholesterol, low high-density and high-density lipoprotein, low albumin, and elevated aspartate aminotransferase were associated with increased risk of death. We generated a scoring system for survival to transplant. Our final model, with age, sex, dialysis, cholesterol, ventilator, and albumin, gave a C-statistic of 0.870. A simplified system preserved a C-statistic of 0.844. Patients were divided into high-risk or highest-risk groups (median respective survival, 367 and 17 days), with strong discrimination between groups for death. We have generated a scoring system that offers high prognostic ability for patients requiring BIVAD support and hope that it may assist in clinical decision making. Further studies are needed to prospectively validate our scoring system. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Physical risk factors identification based on body sensor network combined to videotaping.

PubMed

Vignais, Nicolas; Bernard, Fabien; Touvenot, Gérard; Sagot, Jean-Claude

2017-11-01

The aim of this study was to perform an ergonomic analysis of a material handling task by combining a subtask video analysis and a RULA computation, implemented continuously through a motion capture system combining inertial sensors and electrogoniometers. Five workers participated to the experiment. Seven inertial measurement units, placed on the worker's upper body (pelvis, thorax, head, arms, forearms), were implemented through a biomechanical model of the upper body to continuously provide trunk, neck, shoulder and elbow joint angles. Wrist joint angles were derived from electrogoniometers synchronized with the inertial measurement system. Worker's activity was simultaneously recorded using video. During post-processing, joint angles were used as inputs to a computationally implemented ergonomic evaluation based on the RULA method. Consequently a RULA score was calculated at each time step to characterize the risk of exposure of the upper body (right and left sides). Local risk scores were also computed to identify the anatomical origin of the exposure. Moreover, the video-recorded work activity was time-studied in order to classify and quantify all subtasks involved into the task. Results showed that mean RULA scores were at high risk for all participants (6 and 6.2 for right and left sides respectively). A temporal analysis demonstrated that workers spent most part of the work time at a RULA score of 7 (right: 49.19 ± 35.27%; left: 55.5 ± 29.69%). Mean local scores revealed that most exposed joints during the task were elbows, lower arms, wrists and hands. Elbows and lower arms were indeed at a high level of risk during the total time of a work cycle (100% for right and left sides). Wrist and hands were also exposed to a risky level for much of the period of work (right: 82.13 ± 7.46%; left: 77.85 ± 12.46%). Concerning the subtask analysis, subtasks called 'snow thrower', 'opening the vacuum sealer', 'cleaning' and 'storing' have been identified as the most awkward for right and left sides given mean RULA scores and percentages of time spent at risky levels. Results analysis permitted to suggest ergonomic recommendations for the redesign of the workstation. Contributions of the proposed innovative system dedicated to physical ergonomic assessment are further discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of three scoring systems in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Zhong, Min; Chen, Wan Jun; Lu, Xiao Ye; Qian, Jie; Zhu, Chang Qing

2016-12-01

To compare the performances of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), modified GBS (mGBS) and AIMS65 in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). This study enrolled 320 consecutive patients with AUGIB. Patients at high and low risks of developing adverse clinical outcomes (rebleeding, the need of clinical intervention and death) were categorized according to the GBS, mGBS and AIMS65 scoring systems. The outcome of the patients were the occurrences of adverse clinical outcomes. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of three scoring systems were compared. Irrespective of the systems used, the high-risk groups showed higher rates of rebleeding, intervention and death compared with the low-risk groups (P < 0.05). For the prediction of rebleeding, AIMS65 (AUROC 0.735, 95% CI 0.667-0.802) performed significantly better than GBS (AUROC 0.672, 95% CI 0.597-0.747; P < 0.01) and mGBS (AUROC 0.677, 95% CI 0.602-0.753; P < 0.01). For the prediction of interventions, there was no significant difference among the three systems (GBS: AUROC 0.769, 95% CI 0.668-0.870; mGBS: AUROC 0.745, 95% CI 0.643-0.847; AIMS65: AUROC 0.746, 95% CI 0.640-0.851). For the prediction of in-hospital mortality, there was no significant difference among the three systems (GBS: AUROC 0.796, 95% CI 0.694-0.898; mGBS: AUROC 0.803, 95% CI 0.703-0.904; AIMS65: AUROC 0.786, 95% CI 0.670-0.903). The three scoring systems are reliable and accurate in predicting the rates of rebleeding, surgery and mortality in AUGIB. However, AIMS65 outperforms GBS and mGBS in predicting rebleeding. © 2016 Chinese Medical Association Shanghai Branch, Chinese Society of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Predicting two-year mortality from discharge after acute coronary syndrome: An internationally-based risk score.

PubMed

Pocock, Stuart J; Huo, Yong; Van de Werf, Frans; Newsome, Simon; Chin, Chee Tang; Vega, Ana Maria; Medina, Jesús; Bueno, Héctor

2017-08-01

Long-term risk of post-discharge mortality associated with acute coronary syndrome remains a concern. The development of a model to reliably estimate two-year mortality risk from hospital discharge post-acute coronary syndrome will help guide treatment strategies. EPICOR (long-tErm follow uP of antithrombotic management patterns In acute CORonary syndrome patients, NCT01171404) and EPICOR Asia (EPICOR Asia, NCT01361386) are prospective observational studies of 23,489 patients hospitalized for an acute coronary syndrome event, who survived to discharge and were then followed up for two years. Patients were enrolled from 28 countries across Europe, Latin America and Asia. Risk scoring for two-year all-cause mortality risk was developed using identified predictive variables and forward stepwise Cox regression. Goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power was estimated. Within two years of discharge 5.5% of patients died. We identified 17 independent mortality predictors: age, low ejection fraction, no coronary revascularization/thrombolysis, elevated serum creatinine, poor EQ-5D score, low haemoglobin, previous cardiac or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, elevated blood glucose, on diuretics or an aldosterone inhibitor at discharge, male sex, low educational level, in-hospital cardiac complications, low body mass index, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction diagnosis, and Killip class. Geographic variation in mortality risk was seen following adjustment for other predictive variables. The developed risk-scoring system provided excellent discrimination ( c-statistic=0.80, 95% confidence interval=0.79-0.82) with a steep gradient in two-year mortality risk: >25% (top decile) vs. ~1% (bottom quintile). A simplified risk model with 11 predictors gave only slightly weaker discrimination ( c-statistic=0.79, 95% confidence interval =0.78-0.81). This risk score for two-year post-discharge mortality in acute coronary syndrome patients ( www.acsrisk.org ) can facilitate identification of high-risk patients and help guide tailored secondary prevention measures.

Metabolic syndrome predicts vascular changes in whole body magnetic resonance imaging in patients with long standing diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Although diabetic patients have an increased rate of cardio-vascular events, there is considerable heterogeneity with respect to cardiovascular risk, requiring new approaches to individual cardiovascular risk factor assessment. In this study we used whole body-MR-angiography (WB-MRA) to assess the degree of atherosclerosis in patients with long-standing diabetes and to determine the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and atherosclerotic burden. Methods Long standing (≥10 years) type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients (n = 59; 31 males; 63.3 ± 1.7 years) were examined by WB-MRA. Based on the findings in each vessel, we developed an overall score representing the patient's vascular atherosclerotic burden (MRI-score). The score's association with components of the MetS was assessed. Results The median MRI-score was 1.18 [range: 1.00-2.41] and MetS was present in 58% of the cohort (type 2 diabetics: 73%; type 1 diabetics: 26%). Age (p = 0.0002), HDL-cholesterol (p = 0.016), hypertension (p = 0.0008), nephropathy (p = 0.0093), CHD (p = 0.001) and MetS (p = 0.0011) were significantly associated with the score. Adjusted for age and sex, the score was significantly (p = 0.02) higher in diabetics with MetS (1.450 [1.328-1.572]) compared to those without MetS (1.108 [0.966-1.50]). The number of MetS components was associated with a linear increase in the MRI-score (increase in score: 0.09/MetS component; r2 = 0.24, p = 0.038). Finally, using an established risk algorithm, we found a significant association between MRI-score and 10-year risk for CHD, fatal CHD and stroke. Conclusion In this high-risk diabetic population, WB-MRA revealed large heterogeneity in the degree of systemic atherosclerosis. Presence and number of traits of the MetS are associated with the extent of atherosclerotic burden. These results support the perspective that diabetic patients are a heterogeneous population with increased but varying prevalence of atherosclerosis and risk. PMID:20804545

Metabolic syndrome predicts vascular changes in whole body magnetic resonance imaging in patients with long standing diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Findeisen, Hannes M; Weckbach, Sabine; Stark, Renée G; Reiser, Maximilian F; Schoenberg, Stefan O; Parhofer, Klaus G

2010-08-30

Although diabetic patients have an increased rate of cardio-vascular events, there is considerable heterogeneity with respect to cardiovascular risk, requiring new approaches to individual cardiovascular risk factor assessment. In this study we used whole body-MR-angiography (WB-MRA) to assess the degree of atherosclerosis in patients with long-standing diabetes and to determine the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and atherosclerotic burden. Long standing (> or = 10 years) type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients (n = 59; 31 males; 63.3 +/- 1.7 years) were examined by WB-MRA. Based on the findings in each vessel, we developed an overall score representing the patient's vascular atherosclerotic burden (MRI-score). The score's association with components of the MetS was assessed. The median MRI-score was 1.18 [range: 1.00-2.41] and MetS was present in 58% of the cohort (type 2 diabetics: 73%; type 1 diabetics: 26%). Age (p = 0.0002), HDL-cholesterol (p = 0.016), hypertension (p = 0.0008), nephropathy (p = 0.0093), CHD (p = 0.001) and MetS (p = 0.0011) were significantly associated with the score. Adjusted for age and sex, the score was significantly (p = 0.02) higher in diabetics with MetS (1.450 [1.328-1.572]) compared to those without MetS (1.108 [0.966-1.50]). The number of MetS components was associated with a linear increase in the MRI-score (increase in score: 0.09/MetS component; r2 = 0.24, p = 0.038). Finally, using an established risk algorithm, we found a significant association between MRI-score and 10-year risk for CHD, fatal CHD and stroke. In this high-risk diabetic population, WB-MRA revealed large heterogeneity in the degree of systemic atherosclerosis. Presence and number of traits of the MetS are associated with the extent of atherosclerotic burden. These results support the perspective that diabetic patients are a heterogeneous population with increased but varying prevalence of atherosclerosis and risk.

A prospective study of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score in acute pancreatitis: an Indian perspective.

PubMed

Senapati, Debadutta; Debata, Prasanna Kumar; Jenasamant, Saumya Sekhar; Nayak, Anil Kumar; Gowda S, Manoj; Swain, Narendra Nath

2014-01-01

A simple and easily applicable system for stratifying patients with acute pancreatitis is lacking. The aim of our study was to evaluate the ability of BISAP score to predict mortality in acute pancreatitis patients from our institution and to predict which patients are at risk for development of organ failure, persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis. All patients with acute pancreatitis were included in the study. BISAP score was calculated within 24 h of admission. A Contrast CT was used to differentiate interstitial from necrotizing pancreatitis within seven days of hospitalization whereas Marshall Scoring System was used to characterize organ failure. Among 246 patients M:F = 153:93, most common aetiology among men was alcoholism and among women was gallstone disease. 207 patients had no organ failure and remaining 39 developed organ failure. 17 patients had persistent organ failure, 16 of those with BISAP score ≥3. 13 patients in our study died, out of which 12 patients had BISAP score ≥3. We also found that a BISAP score of ≥3 had a sensitivity of 92%, specificity of 76%, a positive predictive value of 17%, and a negative predictive value of 99% for mortality. The BISAP score is a simple and accurate method for the early identification of patients at increased risk for in hospital mortality and morbidity. Copyright © 2014 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Risk Score for Predicting Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Dobson, Ruth; Ramagopalan, Sreeram; Topping, Joanne; Smith, Paul; Solanky, Bhavana; Schmierer, Klaus; Chard, Declan; Giovannoni, Gavin

2016-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) develops as a result of environmental influences on the genetically susceptible. Siblings of people with MS have an increased risk of both MS and demonstrating asymptomatic changes in keeping with MS. We set out to develop an MS risk score integrating both genetic and environmental risk factors. We used this score to identify siblings at extremes of MS risk and attempted to validate the score using brain MRI. 78 probands with MS, 121 of their unaffected siblings and 103 healthy controls were studied. Personal history was taken, and serological and genetic analysis using the illumina immunochip was performed. Odds ratios for MS associated with each risk factor were derived from existing literature, and the log values of the odds ratios from each of the risk factors were combined in an additive model to provide an overall score. Scores were initially calculated using log odds ratio from the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele only, secondly using data from all MS-associated SNPs identified in the 2011 GWAS. Subjects with extreme risk scores underwent validation studies. MRI was performed on selected individuals. There was a significant difference in the both risk scores between people with MS, their unaffected siblings and healthy controls (p<0.0005). Unaffected siblings had a risk score intermediate to people with MS and controls (p<0.0005). The best performing risk score generated an AUC of 0.82 (95%CI 0.75-0.88). The risk score demonstrates an AUC on the threshold for clinical utility. Our score enables the identification of a high-risk sibling group to inform pre-symptomatic longitudinal studies.

Development and Validation of a Model to Determine Risk of Progression of Barrett's Esophagus to Neoplasia.

PubMed

Parasa, Sravanthi; Vennalaganti, Sreekar; Gaddam, Srinivas; Vennalaganti, Prashanth; Young, Patrick; Gupta, Neil; Thota, Prashanthi; Cash, Brooks; Mathur, Sharad; Sampliner, Richard; Moawad, Fouad; Lieberman, David; Bansal, Ajay; Kennedy, Kevin F; Vargo, John; Falk, Gary; Spaander, Manon; Bruno, Marco; Sharma, Prateek

2018-04-01

A system is needed to determine the risk of patients with Barrett's esophagus for progression to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We developed and validated a model to determine of progression to HGD or EAC in patients with BE, based on demographic data and endoscopic and histologic findings at the time of index endoscopy. We performed a longitudinal study of patients with BE at 5 centers in United States and 1 center in Netherlands enrolled in the Barrett's Esophagus Study database from 1985 through 2014. Patients were excluded from the analysis if they had less than 1 year of follow-up, were diagnosed with HGD or EAC within the past year, were missing baseline histologic data, or had no intestinal metaplasia. Seventy percent of the patients were used to derive the model and 30% were used for the validation study. The primary outcome was development of HGD or EAC during the follow-up period (median, 5.9 years). Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. We assigned a specific number of points to each BE risk factor, and point totals (scores) were used to create categories of low, intermediate, and high risk. We used Cox regression to compute hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals to determine associations between risk of progression and scores. Of 4584 patients in the database, 2697 were included in our analysis (84.1% men; 87.6% Caucasian; mean age, 55.4 ± 20.1 years; mean body mass index, 27.9 ± 5.5 kg/m 2 ; mean length of BE, 3.7 ± 3.2 cm). During the follow-up period, 154 patients (5.7%) developed HGD or EAC, with an annual rate of progression of 0.95%. Male sex, smoking, length of BE, and baseline-confirmed low-grade dysplasia were significantly associated with progression. Scores assigned identified patients with BE that progressed to HGD or EAC with a c-statistic of 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.80; P < .001). The calibration slope was 0.9966 (P = .99), determined from the validation cohort. We developed a scoring system (Progression in Barrett's Esophagus score) based on male sex, smoking, length of BE, and baseline low-grade dysplasia that identified patients with BE at low, intermediate, and high risk for HGD or EAC. This scoring system might be used in management of patients. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Failure mode and effects analysis drastically reduced potential risks in clinical trial conduct

PubMed Central

Baik, Jungmi; Kim, Hyunjung; Kim, Rachel

2017-01-01

Background Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a risk management tool to proactively identify and assess the causes and effects of potential failures in a system, thereby preventing them from happening. The objective of this study was to evaluate effectiveness of FMEA applied to an academic clinical trial center in a tertiary care setting. Methods A multidisciplinary FMEA focus group at the Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center selected 6 core clinical trial processes, for which potential failure modes were identified and their risk priority number (RPN) was assessed. Remedial action plans for high-risk failure modes (RPN >160) were devised and a follow-up RPN scoring was conducted a year later. Results A total of 114 failure modes were identified with an RPN score ranging 3–378, which was mainly driven by the severity score. Fourteen failure modes were of high risk, 11 of which were addressed by remedial actions. Rescoring showed a dramatic improvement attributed to reduction in the occurrence and detection scores by >3 and >2 points, respectively. Conclusions FMEA is a powerful tool to improve quality in clinical trials. The Seoul National University Hospital Clinical Trials Center is expanding its FMEA capability to other core clinical trial processes. PMID:29089745

Impact of the International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic risk groups on the outcome of patients with primary myelodysplastic syndromes undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation from human leukocyte antigen-identical siblings: a retrospective analysis of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation-Chronic Malignancies Working Party.

PubMed

Onida, Francesco; Brand, Ronald; van Biezen, Anja; Schaap, Michel; von dem Borne, Peter A; Maertens, Johan; Beelen, Dietrich W; Carreras, Enric; Alessandrino, Emilio P; Volin, Liisa; Kuball, Jürgen H E; Figuera, Angela; Sierra, Jorge; Finke, Jürgen; Kröger, Nicolaus; de Witte, Theo

2014-10-01

Acquired chromosomal abnormalities are important prognostic factors in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes treated with supportive care and with disease-modifying therapeutic interventions, including allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. To assess the prognostic impact of cytogenetic characteristics after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation accurately, we investigated a homogeneous group of 523 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndromes who have received stem cells from human leukocyte antigen-identical siblings. Overall survival at five years from transplantation in good, intermediate, and poor cytogenetic risk groups according to the International Prognostic Scoring System was 48%, 45% and 30%, respectively (P<0.01). Both the disease status (complete remission vs. not in complete remission) and the morphological classification at transplant in the untreated patients were significantly associated with probability of overall survival and relapse-free survival (P<0.01). The cytogenetic risk groups have no prognostic impact in untreated patients with refractory anemia ± ringed sideroblasts (P=0.90). However, combining the good and intermediate cytogenetic risk groups and comparing them to the poor-risk group showed within the other three disease-status-at-transplant groups a hazard ratio of 1.86 (95%CI: 1.41-2.45). In conclusion, this study shows that, in a large series of patients with primary myelodysplastic syndromes, poor-risk cytogenetics as defined by the standard International Prognostic Scoring System is associated with a relatively poor survival after allogeneic stem cell transplantation from human leukocyte antigen-identical siblings except in patients who are transplanted in refractory anemia/refractory anemia with ringed sideroblasts stage before progression to higher myelodysplastic syndrome stages. Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

Assessment of coronary artery calcium by chest CT compared with EKG-gated cardiac CT in the multicenter AIDS cohort study.

PubMed

Chandra, Divay; Gupta, Aman; Leader, Joseph K; Fitzpatrick, Meghan; Kingsley, Lawrence A; Kleerup, Eric; Haberlen, Sabina A; Budoff, Matthew J; Witt, Mallory; Post, Wendy S; Sciurba, Frank C; Morris, Alison

2017-01-01

Individuals with HIV are at increased risk for coronary artery disease (CAD). Early detection of subclinical CAD by assessment of coronary artery calcium (CAC) may help risk stratify and prevent CAD events in these individuals. However, the current standard to quantify CAC i.e. Agatston scoring requires EKG-gated cardiac CT imaging. To determine if the assessment of CAC using non-EKG-gated chest CT and the Weston scoring system is a useful surrogate for Agatston scores in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals. CAC was assessed by both the Weston and Agatston score in 108 men enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. Participants were 55.2 (IQR 50.4; 59.9) years old and 62 (57.4%) were seropositive for HIV. Inter-observer agreement (rs = 0.94, κ = 90.0%, p<0.001, n = 21) and intra-observer agreement (rs = 0.95, κ = 95.2%, p<0.001, n = 97) for category of Weston score were excellent. Weston scores were associated with similar CAD risk factors as Agatston scores (age, race, HDL cholesterol level, all p<0.05) in our cohort. There was excellent correlation (rs = 0.92, p<0.001) and agreement (κw = 0.77, p<0.001) between Weston and Agatston scores. This study is the first to examine calcium scoring using chest CT in HIV-infected individuals and to independently validate the Weston score as a surrogate for the Agatston score. In clinical or research settings where EKG-gated cardiac CT is not feasible for the assessment of coronary calcium, Weston scoring by using chest CT should be considered.

Assessment of coronary artery calcium by chest CT compared with EKG-gated cardiac CT in the multicenter AIDS cohort study

PubMed Central

Chandra, Divay; Gupta, Aman; Leader, Joseph K.; Fitzpatrick, Meghan; Kingsley, Lawrence A.; Kleerup, Eric; Haberlen, Sabina A.; Budoff, Matthew J.; Witt, Mallory; Post, Wendy S.; Sciurba, Frank C.; Morris, Alison

2017-01-01

Rationale Individuals with HIV are at increased risk for coronary artery disease (CAD). Early detection of subclinical CAD by assessment of coronary artery calcium (CAC) may help risk stratify and prevent CAD events in these individuals. However, the current standard to quantify CAC i.e. Agatston scoring requires EKG-gated cardiac CT imaging. Objective To determine if the assessment of CAC using non-EKG-gated chest CT and the Weston scoring system is a useful surrogate for Agatston scores in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals. Methods and measurements CAC was assessed by both the Weston and Agatston score in 108 men enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. Results Participants were 55.2 (IQR 50.4; 59.9) years old and 62 (57.4%) were seropositive for HIV. Inter-observer agreement (rs = 0.94, κ = 90.0%, p<0.001, n = 21) and intra-observer agreement (rs = 0.95, κ = 95.2%, p<0.001, n = 97) for category of Weston score were excellent. Weston scores were associated with similar CAD risk factors as Agatston scores (age, race, HDL cholesterol level, all p<0.05) in our cohort. There was excellent correlation (rs = 0.92, p<0.001) and agreement (κw = 0.77, p<0.001) between Weston and Agatston scores. Conclusions This study is the first to examine calcium scoring using chest CT in HIV-infected individuals and to independently validate the Weston score as a surrogate for the Agatston score. In clinical or research settings where EKG-gated cardiac CT is not feasible for the assessment of coronary calcium, Weston scoring by using chest CT should be considered. PMID:28453572

Likelihood ratio-based integrated personal risk assessment of type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Sato, Noriko; Htun, Nay Chi; Daimon, Makoto; Tamiya, Gen; Kato, Takeo; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa; Muramatsu, Masaaki

2014-01-01

To facilitate personalized health care for multifactorial diseases, risks of genetic and clinical/environmental factors should be assessed together for each individual in an integrated fashion. This approach is possible with the likelihood ratio (LR)-based risk assessment system, as this system can incorporate manifold tests. We examined the usefulness of this system for assessing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Our system employed 29 genetic susceptibility variants, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension as risk factors whose LRs can be estimated from openly available T2D association data for the Japanese population. The pretest probability was set at a sex- and age-appropriate population average of diabetes prevalence. The classification performance of our LR-based risk assessment was compared to that of a non-invasive screening test for diabetes called TOPICS (with score based on age, sex, family history, smoking, BMI, and hypertension) using receiver operating characteristic analysis with a community cohort (n = 1263). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the LR-based assessment and TOPICS was 0.707 (95% CI 0.665-0.750) and 0.719 (0.675-0.762), respectively. These AUCs were much higher than that of a genetic risk score constructed using the same genetic susceptibility variants, 0.624 (0.574-0.674). The use of ethnically matched LRs is necessary for proper personal risk assessment. In conclusion, although LR-based integrated risk assessment for T2D still requires additional tests that evaluate other factors, such as risks involved in missing heritability, our results indicate the potential usability of LR-based assessment system and stress the importance of stratified epidemiological investigations in personalized medicine.

Development and validation of a prognostic scoring system for patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia.

PubMed

Such, Esperanza; Germing, Ulrich; Malcovati, Luca; Cervera, José; Kuendgen, Andrea; Della Porta, Matteo G; Nomdedeu, Benet; Arenillas, Leonor; Luño, Elisa; Xicoy, Blanca; Amigo, Mari L; Valcarcel, David; Nachtkamp, Kathrin; Ambaglio, Ilaria; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Lorenzo, Ignacio; Cazzola, Mario; Sanz, Guillermo

2013-04-11

The natural course of chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is highly variable but a widely accepted prognostic scoring system for patients with CMML is not available. The main aim of this study was to develop a new CMML-specific prognostic scoring system (CPSS) in a large series of 558 patients with CMML (training cohort, Spanish Group of Myelodysplastic Syndromes) and to validate it in an independent series of 274 patients (validation cohort, Heinrich Heine University Hospital, Düsseldorf, Germany, and San Matteo Hospital, Pavia, Italy). The most relevant variables for overall survival (OS) and evolution to acute myeloblastic leukemia (AML) were FAB and WHO CMML subtypes, CMML-specific cytogenetic risk classification, and red blood cell (RBC) transfusion dependency. CPSS was able to segregate patients into 4 clearly different risk groups for OS (P < .001) and risk of AML evolution (P < .001) and its predictive capability was confirmed in the validation cohort. An alternative CPSS with hemoglobin instead of RBC transfusion dependency offered almost identical prognostic capability. This study confirms the prognostic impact of FAB and WHO subtypes, recognizes the importance of RBC transfusion dependency and cytogenetics, and offers a simple and powerful CPSS for accurately assessing prognosis and planning therapy in patients with CMML.

Quantifying risk and benchmarking performance in the adult intensive care unit.

PubMed

Higgins, Thomas L

2007-01-01

Morbidity, mortality, and length-of-stay outcomes in patients receiving critical care are difficult to interpret unless they are risk-stratified for diagnosis, presenting severity of illness, and other patient characteristics. Acuity adjustment systems for adults include the Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), the Mortality Probability Model (MPM), and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS). All have recently been updated and recalibrated to reflect contemporary results. Specialized scores are also available for patient subpopulations where general acuity scores have drawbacks. Demand for outcomes data is likely to grow with pay-for-performance initiatives as well as for routine clinical, prognostic, administrative, and research applications. It is important for clinicians to understand how these scores are derived and how they are properly applied to quantify patient severity of illness and benchmark intensive care unit performance.

Systemic risk score evaluation in ischemic stroke patients (SCALA): a prospective cross sectional study in 85 German stroke units.

PubMed

Weimar, Christian; Goertler, Michael; Röther, Joachim; Ringelstein, E Bernd; Darius, Harald; Nabavi, Darius Günther; Kim, In-Ha; Theobald, Karlheinz; Diener, Han-Christoph

2007-11-01

Stratification of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke (IS) by risk of recurrent stroke can contribute to optimized secondary prevention. We therefore aimed to assess cardiovascular risk factor profiles of consecutive patients hospitalized with TIA/IS to stratify the risk of recurrent stroke according to the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and of future cardiovascular events according to the ankle brachial index (ABI) as a marker of generalized atherosclerosis In this cross-sectional observational study, 85 neurological stroke units throughout Germany documented cardiovascular risk factor profiles of 10 consecutive TIA/IS patients on standardized questionnaires. Screening for PAD was done with Doppler ultrasonography to calculate the ABI. A total of 852 patients (57% men) with a mean age of 67+/-12.4 years were included of whom 82.9 % had IS. The median National Institutes of Health stroke sum score was 4 (TIA: 1). Arterial hypertension was reported in 71%, diabetes mellitus in 26%, clinical PAD in 10%, and an ABI < or = 0.9 in 51%. An ESRS > or = 3 was observed in 58%, which in two previous retrospective analyses corresponded to a recurrent stroke risk of > or = 4%/year. The correlation between the ESRS and the ABI was low (r = 0.21). A high proportion of patients had asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease and a considerable risk of recurrent stroke according to the ABI and ESRS category. The prognostic accuracy as well as the potential benefit of various risk stratification scores in secondary stroke prevention require validation in a larger prospective study.

Standardized error severity score (ESS) ratings to quantify risk associated with child restraint system (CRS) and booster seat misuse.

PubMed

Rudin-Brown, Christina M; Kramer, Chelsea; Langerak, Robin; Scipione, Andrea; Kelsey, Shelley

2017-11-17

Although numerous research studies have reported high levels of error and misuse of child restraint systems (CRS) and booster seats in experimental and real-world scenarios, conclusions are limited because they provide little information regarding which installation issues pose the highest risk and thus should be targeted for change. Beneficial to legislating bodies and researchers alike would be a standardized, globally relevant assessment of the potential injury risk associated with more common forms of CRS and booster seat misuse, which could be applied with observed error frequency-for example, in car seat clinics or during prototype user testing-to better identify and characterize the installation issues of greatest risk to safety. A group of 8 leading world experts in CRS and injury biomechanics, who were members of an international child safety project, estimated the potential injury severity associated with common forms of CRS and booster seat misuse. These injury risk error severity score (ESS) ratings were compiled and compared to scores from previous research that had used a similar procedure but with fewer respondents. To illustrate their application, and as part of a larger study examining CRS and booster seat labeling requirements, the new standardized ESS ratings were applied to objective installation performance data from 26 adult participants who installed a convertible (rear- vs. forward-facing) CRS and booster seat in a vehicle, and a child test dummy in the CRS and booster seat, using labels that only just met minimal regulatory requirements. The outcome measure, the risk priority number (RPN), represented the composite scores of injury risk and observed installation error frequency. Variability within the sample of ESS ratings in the present study was smaller than that generated in previous studies, indicating better agreement among experts on what constituted injury risk. Application of the new standardized ESS ratings to installation performance data revealed several areas of misuse of the CRS/booster seat associated with high potential injury risk. Collectively, findings indicate that standardized ESS ratings are useful for estimating injury risk potential associated with real-world CRS and booster seat installation errors.

Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS): A novel severity score to predict mortality among hospitalized patients with Clostridium difficile infection

PubMed Central

Kassam, Zain; Fabersunne, Camila Cribb; Smith, Mark B.; Alm, Eric J.; Kaplan, Gilaad G.; Nguyen, Geoffrey C.; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N.

2016-01-01

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is public health threat and associated with significant mortality. However, there is a paucity of objectively derived CDI severity scoring systems to predict mortality. Aims To develop a novel CDI risk score to predict mortality entitled: Clostridium difficile Associated Risk of Death Score (CARDS). Methods We obtained data from the United States 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database. All CDI-associated hospitalizations were identified using discharge codes (ICD-9-CM, 008.45). Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to identify independent predictors of mortality. CARDS was calculated by assigning a numeric weight to each parameter based on their odds ratio in the final logistic model. Predictive properties of model discrimination were assessed using the c-statistic and validated in an independent sample using the 2010 NIS database. Results We identified 77,776 hospitalizations, yielding an estimate of 374,747 cases with an associated diagnosis of CDI in the United States, 8% of whom died in the hospital. The 8 severity score predictors were identified on multivariate analysis: age, cardiopulmonary disease, malignancy, diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease, acute renal failure, liver disease and ICU admission, with weights ranging from −1 (for diabetes) to 5 (for ICU admission). The overall risk score in the cohort ranged from 0 to 18. Mortality increased significantly as CARDS increased. CDI-associated mortality was 1.2% with a CARDS of 0 compared to 100% with CARDS of 18. The model performed equally well in our validation cohort. Conclusion CARDS is a promising simple severity score to predict mortality among those hospitalized with CDI. PMID:26849527

Incidence of surgical-site infections and the validity of the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance System risk index in a general surgical ward in Santa Cruz, Bolivia.

PubMed

Soleto, Lorena; Pirard, Marianne; Boelaert, Marleen; Peredo, Remberto; Vargas, Reinerio; Gianella, Alberto; Van der Stuyft, Patrick

2003-01-01

To estimate the frequency of and risk factors for surgical-site infections (SSIs) in Bolivia, and to study the performance of the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance (NNIS) System risk index in a developing country. A prospective study with patient follow-up until the 30th postoperative day. A general surgical ward of a public hospital in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. Patients admitted to the ward between July 1998 and June 1999 on whom surgical procedures were performed. Follow-up was complete for 91.5% of 376 surgical procedures. The overall SSI rate was 12%. Thirty-four (75.6%) of the 45 SSIs were culture positive. A logistic regression model retained an American Society of Anesthesiologists score of more than 1 (odds ratio [OR], 1.87), a not-clean wound class (OR, 2.28), a procedure duration of more than 1 hour (OR, 1.81), and drain (OR, 1.98) as independent risk factors for SSI. There was no significant association between the NNIS System risk index and SSI rates. However, a "local" risk index constructed with the above cutoff points showed a linear trend with SSI (P < .001) and a relative risk of 3.18 for risk class 3 versus a class of less than 3. SSIs cause considerable morbidity in Santa Cruz. Appropriate nosocomial infection surveillance and control should be introduced. The NNIS System risk index did not discriminate between patients at low and high risk for SSI in this hospital setting, but a risk score based on local cutoff points performed substantially better.

Conditional Disease-Free Survival After Surgical Resection of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors

PubMed Central

Bischof, Danielle A.; Kim, Yuhree; Dodson, Rebecca; Jimenez, M. Carolina; Behman, Ramy; Cocieru, Andrei; Fisher, Sarah B.; Groeschl, Ryan T.; Squires, Malcolm H.; Maithel, Shishir K.; Blazer, Dan G.; Kooby, David A.; Gamblin, T. Clark; Bauer, Todd W.; Quereshy, Fayez A.; Karanicolas, Paul J.; Law, Calvin H. L.; Pawlik, Timothy M.

2015-01-01

IMPORTANCE Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are the most commonly diagnosed mesenchymal tumors of the gastrointestinal tract. The risk of recurrence following surgical resection of GISTs is typically reported from the date of surgery. However, disease-free survival (DFS) over time is dynamic and changes based on disease-free time already accumulated following surgery. OBJECTIVES To assess the comparative performance of established GIST recurrence risk prognostic scoring systems and to characterize conditional DFS following surgical resection of GISTs. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A retrospective cohort study of 502 patients who underwent surgery for a primary, nonmetastatic GIST between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2012, at 7 major academic cancer centers in the United States and Canada. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Disease-free survival of the patients was classified according to 5 prognostic scoring systems, including the National Institutes of Health criteria, modified National Institutes of Health criteria, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center GIST nomogram, and American Joint Committee on Cancer gastric and nongastric categories. The concordance index (also known as the C statistic or the area under the receiver operating curve) of established GIST recurrence risk prognostic scoring systems. Conditional DFS estimates were calculated. RESULTS Overall 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year DFS following resection of GISTs was 95%, 83%, and 74%, respectively. All the prognostic scoring systems had fair prognostic ability. For all tumor sites, the American Joint Committee on Cancer gastric category demonstrated the best discrimination (C = 0.79). Using conditional DFS, the probability of remaining disease free for an additional 3 years given that a patient was disease free at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years was 82%, 89%, and 92%, respectively. Patients with the highest initial recurrence risk demonstrated the greatest increase in conditional survival as time elapsed. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Conditional DFS improves over time following resection of GISTs. This is valuable information about long-term prognosis to communicate to patients who are disease free after a period following surgery. PMID:25671681

Prenatal High Risk Scoring: How Family Doctors Do It

PubMed Central

Shea, Philip

1978-01-01

Assessment of risk factors is an integral part of family medicine and of prenatal care. A strong positive relationship has been demonstrated between a high risk score and higher incidence of maternal or perinatal morbidity and mortality. The family physician, because of his previous knowledge of the patient, and his familiarity with a broad range of normals, is in a good position to use his clinical judgement in high risk scoring in pregnancy. We must also be cautious that high risk scoring does not become a self fulfilling prophecy. Risk scoring is simply risk scoring, not a plan of management and intervention. PMID:21301562

Predicting mortality after congenital heart surgeries: evaluation of the Aristotle and Risk Adjustement in Congenital Heart Surgery-1 risk prediction scoring systems: a retrospective single center analysis of 1150 patients.

PubMed

Joshi, Shreedhar S; Anthony, G; Manasa, D; Ashwini, T; Jagadeesh, A M; Borde, Deepak P; Bhat, Seetharam; Manjunath, C N

2014-01-01

To validate Aristotle basic complexity and Aristotle comprehensive complexity (ABC and ACC) and risk adjustment in congenital heart surgery-1 (RACHS-1) prediction models for in hospital mortality after surgery for congenital heart disease in a single surgical unit. Patients younger than 18 years, who had undergone surgery for congenital heart diseases from July 2007 to July 2013 were enrolled. Scoring for ABC and ACC scoring and assigning to RACHS-1 categories were done retrospectively from retrieved case files. Discriminative power of scoring systems was assessed with area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating curves (ROC). Calibration (test for goodness of fit of the model) was measured with Hosmer-Lemeshow modification of χ2 test. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to assess reclassification. A total of 1150 cases were assessed with an all-cause in-hospital mortality rate of 7.91%. When modeled for multivariate regression analysis, the ABC (χ2 = 8.24, P = 0.08), ACC (χ2 = 4.17 , P = 0.57) and RACHS-1 (χ2 = 2.13 , P = 0.14) scores showed good overall performance. The AUC was 0.677 with 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.61-0.73 for ABC score, 0.704 (95% CI: 0.64-0.76) for ACC score and for RACHS-1 it was 0.607 (95%CI: 0.55-0.66). ACC had an improved predictability in comparison to RACHS-1 and ABC on analysis with NRI and IDI. ACC predicted mortality better than ABC and RCAHS-1 models. A national database will help in developing predictive models unique to our populations, till then, ACC scoring model can be used to analyze individual performances and compare with other institutes.

Risk-Assessment Score and Patient Optimization as Cost Predictors for Ventral Hernia Repair.

PubMed

Saleh, Sherif; Plymale, Margaret A; Davenport, Daniel L; Roth, John Scott

2018-04-01

Ventral hernia repair (VHR) is associated with complications that significantly increase healthcare costs. This study explores the associations between hospital costs for VHR and surgical complication risk-assessment scores, need for cardiac or pulmonary evaluation, and smoking or obesity counseling. An IRB-approved retrospective study of patients having undergone open VHR over 3 years was performed. Ventral Hernia Risk Score (VHRS) for surgical site occurrence and surgical site infection, and the Ventral Hernia Working Group grade were calculated for each case. Also recorded were preoperative cardiology or pulmonary evaluations, smoking cessation and weight reduction counseling, and patient goal achievement. Hospital costs were obtained from the cost accounting system for the VHR hospitalization stratified by major clinical cost drivers. Univariate regression analyses were used to compare the predictive power of the risk scores. Multivariable analysis was performed to develop a cost prediction model. The mean cost of index VHR hospitalization was $20,700. Total and operating room costs correlated with increasing CDC wound class, VHRS surgical site infection score, VHRS surgical site occurrence score, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, and Ventral Hernia Working Group (all p < 0.01). The VHRS surgical site infection scores correlated negatively with contribution margin (-280; p < 0.01). Multivariable predictors of total hospital costs for the index hospitalization included wound class, hernia defect size, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists class 3 or 4, use of biologic mesh, and 2+ mesh pieces; explaining 73% of the variance in costs (p < 0.001). Weight optimization significantly reduced direct and operating room costs (p < 0.05). Cardiac evaluation was associated with increased costs. Ventral hernia repair hospital costs are more accurately predicted by CDC wound class than VHR risk scores. A straightforward 6-factor model predicted most cost variation for VHR. Copyright © 2018 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Magnetic Resonance Imaging on Prediction of Extraprostatic Extension and Prostatectomy Outcome in Patients with Low-, Intermediate- and High-Risk Prostate Cancer: Try to Find a Standard.

PubMed

Radtke, Jan Philipp; Hadaschik, Boris A; Wolf, Maya B; Freitag, Martin T; Schwab, Constantin; Alt, Celine; Roth, Wilfried; Duensing, Stefan; Pahernik, Sascha A; Roethke, Matthias C; Schlemmer, Heinz-Peter; Hohenfellner, Markus; Teber, Dogu

2015-12-01

To investigate the value of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and to predict extracapsular extension (ECE), seminal vesicle (SV) infiltration, and a negative surgical margin (SM) status at radical prostatectomy (RP) for different prostate cancer (PC) risk groups. In the study, 805 men underwent 3 tesla mpMRI without endorectal coil before MRI/transrectal ultrasonography-fusion guided prostate biopsy. MRIs were analyzed using the prostate imaging reporting and data system. The cohort was classified into risk groups according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) criteria. Of 132 men who subsequently underwent RP, pathologic stage and SM status at RP were used as reference. Retrospectively, we investigated a European Society of Urogenital Radiology (ESUR) score for ECE and SV-infiltration. Statistical analyses included regression analyses, receiver operating characteristics (ROC), and Youden Index to assess an ESUR-score cutoff. Area under the curve in ROC curve analyses was 0.82 for ESUR-ECE score to detect pT(3a)-disease and 0.77 for ESUR-SV score for pT(3b). Using a cutoff of 4 for ECE and of 2 for SV, the positive predictive value of the ECE-score for harboring pT(3) was 50.0%, 90.0%, and 88.8% for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk cohort. Retrospectively, the use of the ESUR-ECE score preoperatively would have changed the initial surgical plan, according to NCCN criteria, in 31.1% of patients. In the high-risk subgroup, 9/35 (25.7%) patients were correctly assessed as not harboring pT(3) by imaging (ECE score <4), and would have allowed secure robot-assisted radical prostatectomy and nerve-sparing surgery (NSS). When T3 suspicion on preoperative MRI would be taken into account, intraoperative frozen-sections (IFS) might avoid positive SM in 12/18 high-risk patients and an oncologic secure NSS in 8/20 intermediate-risk patients. Prediction of pT(3) disease is crucial to plan NSS and to achieve negative SM in RP. Standardized ECE scoring on mpMRI is an independent predictor of pT(3) and may help to plan RP with oncologic security, even in high-risk patients. In addition, it allows more accurate selection of a subgroup of patients for systematic and MRI-guided IFS.

The Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment: a scoring system to predict the risk of relapse to any alcohol use after liver transplant.

PubMed

Rodrigue, James R; Hanto, Douglas W; Curry, Michael P

2013-12-01

Alcohol relapse after liver transplant heightens concern about recurrent disease, nonadherence to the immunosuppression regimen, and death. To develop a scoring system to stratify risk of alcohol relapse after liver transplant. Retrospective medical record review. All adult liver transplants performed from May 2002 to February 2011 at a single center in the United States. The incidence of return to any alcohol consumption after liver transplant. Thirty-four percent (40/118) of patients with a history of alcohol abuse/dependency relapsed to use of any alcohol after liver transplant. Nine of 25 hypothesized risk factors were predictive of alcohol relapse after liver transplant: absence of hepatocellular carcinoma, tobacco dependence, continued alcohol use after liver disease diagnosis, low motivation for alcohol treatment, poor stress management skills, no rehabilitation relationship, limited social support, lack of nonmedical behavioral consequences, and continued engagement in social activities with alcohol present. Each independent predictor was assigned an Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment (ARRA) risk value of 1 point, and patients were classified into 1 of 4 groups by ARRA score: ARRA I = 0, ARRA II = 1 to 3, ARRA III = 4 to 6, and ARRA IV = 7 to 9. Patients in the 2 higher ARRA classifications had significantly higher rates of alcohol relapse and were more likely to return to pretransplant levels of drinking. Alcohol relapse rates are moderately high after liver transplant. The ARRA is a valid and practical tool for identifying pretransplant patients with alcohol abuse or dependency at elevated risk of any alcohol use after liver transplant.

Management of heart failure in the new era: the role of scores.

PubMed

Mantegazza, Valentina; Badagliacca, Roberto; Nodari, Savina; Parati, Gianfranco; Lombardi, Carolina; Di Somma, Salvatore; Carluccio, Erberto; Dini, Frank Lloyd; Correale, Michele; Magrì, Damiano; Agostoni, Piergiuseppe

2016-08-01

Heart failure is a widespread syndrome involving several organs, still characterized by high mortality and morbidity, and whose clinical course is heterogeneous and hardly predictable.In this scenario, the assessment of heart failure prognosis represents a fundamental step in clinical practice. A single parameter is always unable to provide a very precise prognosis. Therefore, risk scores based on multiple parameters have been introduced, but their clinical utility is still modest. In this review, we evaluated several prognostic models for acute, right, chronic, and end-stage heart failure based on multiple parameters. In particular, for chronic heart failure we considered risk scores essentially based on clinical evaluation, comorbidities analysis, baroreflex sensitivity, heart rate variability, sleep disorders, laboratory tests, echocardiographic imaging, and cardiopulmonary exercise test parameters. What is at present established is that a single parameter is not sufficient for an accurate prediction of prognosis in heart failure because of the complex nature of the disease. However, none of the scoring systems available is widely used, being in some cases complex, not user-friendly, or based on expensive or not easily available parameters. We believe that multiparametric scores for risk assessment in heart failure are promising but their widespread use needs to be experienced.

Proposed algorithm for management of patients with thyroid nodules/focal lesions, based on ultrasound (US) and fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB); our own experience

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The standard management in patients with thyroid nodules is to assess the risk of malignancy, based on cytological examination. On the other hand, there are thyroid patterns of ultrasound (US) image, associated with an increased risk of malignancy. The aim of our study was to create a diagnostic algorithm that would employ both data from US examination (expressed by a total score, according to our scoring system) and FNAB results, classified according to Bethesda system (The Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology - TBSRTC categories). Material and methods 100 thyroid cancer foci (94 papillary carcinomas, 4 medullary carcinomas, 2 undifferentiated carcinomas) and 100 benign focal lesions were selected during postoperative histopathological examination of thyroid glands excised during surgery from 111 patients. The corresponding US images of each lesion – performed in the course of preoperative diagnostics – were evaluated for the presence of seven (7) different features in US image, suggesting a malignant character of lesion, viz. vascularity, i.e., the increased central intranodular blood flows, microcalcifications, “taller-than-wide” orientation, solid composition, hypoechogenicity, irregular margin and either absence of peripheral halo or the presence of outer shell of uneven thickness, surrounding the lesion. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, negative predictive values and odds ratios for each US feature were calculated. Results In US image of the analyzed cancer foci, we obtained the following values of odds ratio for each of the above mentioned features suggesting malignancy: “taller-than-wide” orientation - odds ratio - 301.0, microcalcifications - 24.67, increased intranodular vascularity - 20.44, hypoechogenicity - 18.61, irregular margins - 7.81, absence of halo - 5.88, and solid composition - 4.16. Taking into account our own experience and the present data, in juxtaposition with the opinions of other authors, we propose a division of US features into 3 groups of different prognostic importance, expressed by a total score calculated based on our scoring system. Accordingly, microcalcifications, “taller-than-wide” orientation, the increased intranodular vascularity, and hypoechogenicity constitute one group - each of the features in this group is awarded 1 point. In turn, the characteristics of minor prognostic importance, such as irregular margin, absence of halo, solid composition, and large size (a diameter longer than 3.0 cm) - are associated with the granting 0.5 points each. The most important prognostic features – a rapid growth (enlargement) of nodules/focal lesions and a presence of pathologically altered lymph nodes are associated with the granting 3 points for each. Our scoring system can be applied in order to better assessment of thyroid US patterns in whole. In patients with a total score ranging from 0 < 4 points there is US pattern of a low risk of malignancy, with ≥ 4 < 7 points - intermediate risk, and in patients with a score ≥ 7 points – a high risk in question. Conclusion Complementary use of our scoring system and FNAB TBSRTC categories can help to make optimal clinical decisions as regards the selection of treatment strategy. PMID:23601166

Proposed algorithm for management of patients with thyroid nodules/focal lesions, based on ultrasound (US) and fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB); our own experience.

PubMed

Adamczewski, Zbigniew; Lewiński, Andrzej

2013-01-01

The standard management in patients with thyroid nodules is to assess the risk of malignancy, based on cytological examination. On the other hand, there are thyroid patterns of ultrasound (US) image, associated with an increased risk of malignancy. The aim of our study was to create a diagnostic algorithm that would employ both data from US examination (expressed by a total score, according to our scoring system) and FNAB results, classified according to Bethesda system (The Bethesda System for Reporting Thyroid Cytopathology - TBSRTC categories). 100 thyroid cancer foci (94 papillary carcinomas, 4 medullary carcinomas, 2 undifferentiated carcinomas) and 100 benign focal lesions were selected during postoperative histopathological examination of thyroid glands excised during surgery from 111 patients. The corresponding US images of each lesion - performed in the course of preoperative diagnostics - were evaluated for the presence of seven (7) different features in US image, suggesting a malignant character of lesion, viz. vascularity, i.e., the increased central intranodular blood flows, microcalcifications, "taller-than-wide" orientation, solid composition, hypoechogenicity, irregular margin and either absence of peripheral halo or the presence of outer shell of uneven thickness, surrounding the lesion. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, negative predictive values and odds ratios for each US feature were calculated. IN US IMAGE OF THE ANALYZED CANCER FOCI, WE OBTAINED THE FOLLOWING VALUES OF ODDS RATIO FOR EACH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES SUGGESTING MALIGNANCY: "taller-than-wide" orientation - odds ratio - 301.0, microcalcifications - 24.67, increased intranodular vascularity - 20.44, hypoechogenicity - 18.61, irregular margins - 7.81, absence of halo - 5.88, and solid composition - 4.16. Taking into account our own experience and the present data, in juxtaposition with the opinions of other authors, we propose a division of US features into 3 groups of different prognostic importance, expressed by a total score calculated based on our scoring system. Accordingly, microcalcifications, "taller-than-wide" orientation, the increased intranodular vascularity, and hypoechogenicity constitute one group - each of the features in this group is awarded 1 point. In turn, the characteristics of minor prognostic importance, such as irregular margin, absence of halo, solid composition, and large size (a diameter longer than 3.0 cm) - are associated with the granting 0.5 points each. The most important prognostic features - a rapid growth (enlargement) of nodules/focal lesions and a presence of pathologically altered lymph nodes are associated with the granting 3 points for each. Our scoring system can be applied in order to better assessment of thyroid US patterns in whole. In patients with a total score ranging from 0 < 4 points there is US pattern of a low risk of malignancy, with ≥ 4 < 7 points - intermediate risk, and in patients with a score ≥ 7 points - a high risk in question. Complementary use of our scoring system and FNAB TBSRTC categories can help to make optimal clinical decisions as regards the selection of treatment strategy.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score and FIB-4 scoring system could identify patients at risk of systemic complications.

PubMed

Takahashi, Yuka; Kurosaki, Masayuki; Tamaki, Nobuharu; Yasui, Yutaka; Hosokawa, Takanori; Tsuchiya, Kaoru; Nakanishi, Hiroyuki; Itakura, Jun; Izumi, Namiki

2015-06-01

To investigate the relation between systemic complications of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-invasive fibrosis scores. The NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) and FIB-4 were measured in 1559 people who underwent a complete medical checkup at our hospital and were followed for more than 3 years. Correlation between these scores and prevalence and new incidence rates of diabetes or cerebral-cardiovascular diseases were analyzed. The 1559 cases were classified into two groups using the low cut-off values of NFS and FIB-4: group 1 (≥low cut-off score with fatty liver) and group 2 (the others). In group 1, the prevalence of diabetes and cerebral-cardiovascular diseases at baseline and additional incidences during the observation period was higher compared with group 2. Diabetes at baseline in group 1 versus group 2 were 31.5% versus 3.1% (NFS, P < 0.0001), 17.0% versus 4.7% (FIB-4, P < 0.0001), and cerebral-cardiovascular diseases at baseline were 7.7% versus 2.3% (NFS, P = 0.002) and 9.0% versus 2.3% (FIB-4, P = 0.0012). New incidences of diabetes were 4.5% versus 1.2% (NFS, P = 0.034) and 3.6% versus 1.2% (FIB-4, P = 0.11), and of cerebral-cardiovascular diseases were 5.0% versus 0.9% (NFS, P = 0.0019) and 5.4% versus 0.9% (FIB-4, P = 0.0034). NFS and FIB-4 are useful to extract cases with high risk of systemic complications of NAFLD in the public. © 2014 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Determining venous thromboembolic risk assessment for patients with trauma: the Trauma Embolic Scoring System.

PubMed

Rogers, Frederick B; Shackford, Steven R; Horst, Michael A; Miller, Jo Ann; Wu, Daniel; Bradburn, Eric; Rogers, Amelia; Krasne, Margaret

2012-08-01

This study aimed to determine the relative "weight" of risk factors known to be associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE) for patients with trauma based on injuries and comorbidities. A retrospective review of 16,608 consecutive admissions to a trauma center was performed. Patients were separated into those who developed VTE (n = 141) versus those who did not (16,467). Univariate analysis was performed for each risk factor reported in the trauma literature. Risk factors that were shown to be significant (p < 0.05) by univariate analysis underwent multivariate analysis to develop odds ratios for VTE. The Trauma Embolic Scoring System (TESS) was derived from the multivariate coefficients. The resulting TESS was compared with a data set from the National Trauma Data Bank (2002-2006) to determine its ability to predict VTE. The multivariate analysis demonstrated that age, Injury Severity Score, obesity, ventilator use for more than 3 days, and lower-extremity trauma were significant predictors of VTE in our patient population. The TESS was from 0 to 14, with the best prediction for those patients with a score of more than 6 (sensitivity, 81.6%; specificity, 84%). Overall, the model had excellent discrimination in predicting VTE with a receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89. The VTE rates for TESS in the National Trauma Data Bank data set were similar for all integers except for 3 and 4, in which the VTE rates were significantly higher (3, 0.2% vs. 0.6%; 4, 0.4% vs. 1.0%). The TESS provides an objective measure of classifying VTE risk for patients with trauma. The TESS could allow informed decision making regarding prophylaxis strategies in patients with trauma.

Predictors of long-term recurrent vascular events after ischemic stroke at young age: the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults.

PubMed

Pezzini, Alessandro; Grassi, Mario; Lodigiani, Corrado; Patella, Rosalba; Gandolfo, Carlo; Zini, Andrea; Delodovici, Maria Luisa; Paciaroni, Maurizio; Del Sette, Massimo; Toriello, Antonella; Musolino, Rossella; Calabrò, Rocco Salvatore; Bovi, Paolo; Adami, Alessandro; Silvestrelli, Giorgio; Sessa, Maria; Cavallini, Anna; Marcheselli, Simona; Bonifati, Domenico Marco; Checcarelli, Nicoletta; Tancredi, Lucia; Chiti, Alberto; Del Zotto, Elisabetta; Spalloni, Alessandra; Giossi, Alessia; Volonghi, Irene; Costa, Paolo; Giacalone, Giacomo; Ferrazzi, Paola; Poli, Loris; Morotti, Andrea; Rasura, Maurizia; Simone, Anna Maria; Gamba, Massimo; Cerrato, Paolo; Micieli, Giuseppe; Melis, Maurizio; Massucco, Davide; De Giuli, Valeria; Iacoviello, Licia; Padovani, Alessandro

2014-04-22

Data on long-term risk and predictors of recurrent thrombotic events after ischemic stroke at a young age are limited. We followed 1867 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke who were 18 to 45 years of age (mean age, 36.8±7.1 years; women, 49.0%), as part of the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults (IPSYS). Median follow-up was 40 months (25th to 75th percentile, 53). The primary end point was a composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or other arterial events. One hundred sixty-three patients had recurrent thrombotic events (average rate, 2.26 per 100 person-years at risk). At 10 years, cumulative risk was 14.7% (95% confidence interval, 12.2%-17.9%) for primary end point, 14.0% (95% confidence interval, 11.4%-17.1%) for brain ischemia, and 0.7% (95% confidence interval, 0.4%-1.3%) for myocardial infarction or other arterial events. Familial history of stroke, migraine with aura, circulating antiphospholipid antibodies, discontinuation of antiplatelet and antihypertensive medications, and any increase of 1 traditional vascular risk factor were independent predictors of the composite end point in multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis. A point-scoring system for each variable was generated by their β-coefficients, and a predictive score (IPSYS score) was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the 0- to 5-year score was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.71; mean, 10-fold internally cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.65). Among patients with ischemic stroke aged 18 to 45 years, the long-term risk of recurrent thrombotic events is associated with modifiable, age-specific risk factors. The IPSYS score may serve as a simple tool for risk estimation.

Risk score to predict gastrointestinal bleeding after acute ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Ji, Ruijun; Shen, Haipeng; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Penglian; Liu, Gaifen; Wang, Yilong; Li, Hao; Singhal, Aneesh B; Wang, Yongjun

2014-07-25

Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common and often serious complication after stroke. Although several risk factors for post-stroke GIB have been identified, no reliable or validated scoring system is currently available to predict GIB after acute stroke in routine clinical practice or clinical trials. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk model (acute ischemic stroke associated gastrointestinal bleeding score, the AIS-GIB score) to predict in-hospital GIB after acute ischemic stroke. The AIS-GIB score was developed from data in the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). Eligible patients in the CNSR were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and internal validation (40%) cohorts. External validation was performed using data from the prospective Chinese Intracranial Atherosclerosis Study (CICAS). Independent predictors of in-hospital GIB were obtained using multivariable logistic regression in the derivation cohort, and β-coefficients were used to generate point scoring system for the AIS-GIB. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration, respectively. A total of 8,820, 5,882, and 2,938 patients were enrolled in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. The overall in-hospital GIB after AIS was 2.6%, 2.3%, and 1.5% in the derivation, internal, and external validation cohort, respectively. An 18-point AIS-GIB score was developed from the set of independent predictors of GIB including age, gender, history of hypertension, hepatic cirrhosis, peptic ulcer or previous GIB, pre-stroke dependence, admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale score, Glasgow Coma Scale score and stroke subtype (Oxfordshire). The AIS-GIB score showed good discrimination in the derivation (0.79; 95% CI, 0.764-0.825), internal (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.82) and external (0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.82) validation cohorts. The AIS-GIB score was well calibrated in the derivation (P = 0.42), internal (P = 0.45) and external (P = 0.86) validation cohorts. The AIS-GIB score is a valid clinical grading scale to predict in-hospital GIB after AIS. Further studies on the effect of the AIS-GIB score on reducing GIB and improving outcome after AIS are warranted.

Identification of a 5‑lncRNA signature‑based risk scoring system for survival prediction in colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Gu, Liqiang; Yu, Jun; Wang, Qing; Xu, Bin; Ji, Liechen; Yu, Lin; Zhang, Xipeng; Cai, Hui

2018-05-03

The present study aimed to investigate potential prognostic long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) associated with colorectal cancer (CRC). An mRNA‑seq dataset obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas was employed to identify the differentially expressed lncRNAs (DELs) between CRC patients with good and poor prognoses. Subsequently, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to analyze the prognosis‑associated lncRNAs among all DELs. In addition, a risk scoring system was developed according to the expression levels of the prognostic lncRNAs, which was then applied to a training set and an independent testing set. Furthermore, the co‑expressed genes of prognostic lncRNAs were screened using a Multi‑Experiment Matrix online tool for construction of lncRNA‑gene networks. Finally, Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway and Gene Ontology (GO) function enrichment analyses were performed on genes in the lncRNA‑gene networks using KOBAS, GOATOOLS and ClusterProfiler. The present study identified 82 DELs, of which long intergenic nonprotein coding RNA 2159, RP11‑452L6.6, RP11‑894P9.1 and RP11‑69M1.6, and whey acidic protein four‑disulfide core domain 21 (WFDC21P) were reported to be independently associated with the prognosis of patients with CRC. A 5‑lncRNA signature‑based risk scoring system was developed, which may be used to classify patients into low‑ and high‑risk groups with significantly different recurrence‑free survival times in the training and testing sets (P<0.05). Co‑expressed genes of WFDC21P or RP11‑69M1.6 were utilized to construct the lncRNA‑gene networks. Genes in the networks were significantly enriched in 'tight junction', 'focal adhesion' and 'regulation of actin cytoskeleton' pathways, and numerous GO terms associated with 'reactive oxygen species metabolism' and 'nitric oxide metabolism'. The present study proposed a 5‑lncRNA signature‑based risk scoring system for predicting the prognosis of patients with CRC, and revealed the associated signaling pathways and biological processes. The results of the present study may help improve prognostic evaluation in clinical practice.

[The use of scores in general medicine].

PubMed

Huber, Ursula; Rösli, Andreas; Ballmer, Peter E; Rippin, Sarah Jane

2013-10-01

Scores are tools to combine complex information into a numerical value. In General Medicine, there are scores to assist in making diagnoses and prognoses, scores to assist therapeutic decision making and to evaluate therapeutic results and scores to help physicians when informing and advising patients. We review six of the scoring systems that have the greatest utility for the General Physician in hospital-based care and in General Practice. The Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS 2002) tool is designed to identify hospital patients in danger of malnutrition. The aim is to improve the nutritional status of these patients. The CURB-65 score predicts 30-day mortality in patients with community acquired pneumonia. Patients with a low score can be considered for home treatment, patients with an elevated score require hospitalisation and those with a high score should be treated as having severe pneumonia; treatment in the intensive care unit should be considered. The IAS-AGLA score of the Working Group on Lipids and Atherosclerosis of the Swiss Society of Cardiology calculates the 10-year risk of a myocardial infarction for people living in Switzerland. The working group makes recommendations for preventative treatment according to the calculated risk status. The Body Mass Index, which is calculated by dividing the body weight in kilograms by the height in meters squared and then divided into weight categories, is used to classify people as underweight, of normal weight, overweight or obese. The prognostic value of this classification is discussed. The Mini-Mental State Examination allows the physician to assess important cognitive functions in a simple and standardised form. The Glasgow Coma Scale is used to classify the level of consciousness in patients with head injury. It can be used for triage and correlates with prognosis.

Personal coronary risk profiles modify autonomic nervous system responses to air pollution.

PubMed

Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Stone, Peter H; Verrier, Richard L; Nearing, Bruce D; MacCallum, Gail; Kim, Jee-Young; Herrick, Robert F; You, Jinhong; Zhou, Haibo; Christiani, David C

2006-11-01

We investigated whether PM2.5-mediated autonomic modulation depends on individual coronary risk profiles. Five-minute average heart rate (HR) and heart rate variability (HRV, including standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals [SDNN], square root of the mean squared differences of successive NN intervals [rMSSD], high frequency [HF]) were measured from 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiograms, and personal PM(2.5) exposures were monitored in a prospective study of 10 male boilermakers (aged 34.3 +/- 8.1 years). We used the Framingham score to classify individuals into low (score = 1-3) and high (score = 5-6) risk categories. Mixed-effect models were used for statistical analyses. Each 1-mg/m(3) increase in the preceding 4-hour moving average PM(2.5) was associated with HR increase (5.3 beats/min) and HRV reduction (11.7%, confidence interval [CI] = 6.2-17.1% for SDNN; 11.1%, CI = 3.1-19.1% for rMSSD; 16.6%, CI = 1.5-31.7% for HF). Greater responses (2- to 4-fold differences) were observed in high-risk subjects than in low-risk subjects. Our study suggests that adverse autonomic responses to metal particulate are aggravated in workers with higher coronary risk profiles.

Aspirin in stroke prevention in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and stable vascular disease: an era of new anticoagulants.

PubMed

Turagam, Mohit K; Velagapudi, Poonam; Leal, Miguel A; Kocheril, Abraham G

2012-04-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major cause of ischemic stroke, especially in the elderly. There are currently enough data to support the notion that anticoagulation with warfarin or dabigatran is far superior to aspirin in the prevention of stroke or systemic embolism in AF. Aspirin is the preferred modality in patients who are either not candidates for anticoagulation, such as patients with increased risk for bleeding, low-risk patients based on the CHADS2 score or patients who have difficulty in maintaining a therapeutic international normalized ratio. There is no dispute on the recommendations regarding stroke prevention in high-risk patients (CHADS2 risk score of 2 and beyond) with AF. However, there is some controversy regarding the appropriate strategy (anticoagulation vs aspirin) for stroke prevention in low-risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0-1). Novel oral anticoagulant drugs (direct thrombin inhibitors and Factor Xa inhibitors) might further diminish the role of aspirin for stroke prevention in AF due to their superior efficacy, lack of need for monitoring of therapeutic effects and lower bleeding risk when compared with warfarin, especially in patients with stable vascular disease.

Development of a Risk Assessment Tool to Predict Fall-Related Severe Injuries Occurring in a Hospital

PubMed Central

Toyabe, Shin-ichi

2014-01-01

Inpatient falls are the most common adverse events that occur in a hospital, and about 3 to 10% of falls result in serious injuries such as bone fractures and intracranial haemorrhages. We previously reported that bone fractures and intracranial haemorrhages were two major fall-related injuries and that risk assessment score for osteoporotic bone fracture was significantly associated not only with bone fractures after falls but also with intracranial haemorrhage after falls. Based on the results, we tried to establish a risk assessment tool for predicting fall-related severe injuries in a hospital. Possible risk factors related to fall-related serious injuries were extracted from data on inpatients that were admitted to a tertiary-care university hospital by using multivariate Cox’ s regression analysis and multiple logistic regression analysis. We found that fall risk score and fracture risk score were the two significant factors, and we constructed models to predict fall-related severe injuries incorporating these factors. When the prediction model was applied to another independent dataset, the constructed model could detect patients with fall-related severe injuries efficiently. The new assessment system could identify patients prone to severe injuries after falls in a reproducible fashion. PMID:25168984

Perforated peptic ulcer: clinical presentation, surgical outcomes, and the accuracy of the Boey scoring system in predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality.

PubMed

Lohsiriwat, Varut; Prapasrivorakul, Siriluck; Lohsiriwat, Darin

2009-01-01

The purposes of this study were to determine clinical presentations and surgical outcomes of perforated peptic ulcer (PPU), and to evaluate the accuracy of the Boey scoring system in predicting mortality and morbidity. We carried out a retrospective study of patients undergoing emergency surgery for PPU between 2001 and 2006 in a university hospital. Clinical presentations and surgical outcomes were analyzed. Adjusted odds ratio (OR) of each Boey score on morbidity and mortality rate was compared with zero risk score. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis was used to compare the predictive ability between Boey score, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, and Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI). The study included 152 patients with average age of 52 years (range: 15-88 years), and 78% were male. The most common site of PPU was the prepyloric region (74%). Primary closure and omental graft was the most common procedure performed. Overall mortality rate was 9% and the complication rate was 30%. The mortality rate increased progressively with increasing numbers of the Boey score: 1%, 8% (OR=2.4), 33% (OR=3.5), and 38% (OR=7.7) for 0, 1, 2, and 3 scores, respectively (p<0.001). The morbidity rates for 0, 1, 2, and 3 Boey scores were 11%, 47% (OR=2.9), 75% (OR=4.3), and 77% (OR=4.9), respectively (p<0.001). Boey score and ASA classification appeared to be better than MPI for predicting the poor surgical outcomes. Perforated peptic ulcer is associated with high rates of mortality and morbidity. The Boey risk score serves as a simple and precise predictor for postoperative mortality and morbidity.

The ADOPT-LC score: a novel predictive index of in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients following surgical procedures, based on a national survey.

PubMed

Sato, Masaya; Tateishi, Ryosuke; Yasunaga, Hideo; Horiguchi, Hiromasa; Matsui, Hiroki; Yoshida, Haruhiko; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Koike, Kazuhiko

2017-03-01

We aimed to develop a model for predicting in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients following major surgical procedures using a large sample of patients derived from a Japanese nationwide administrative database. We enrolled 2197 cirrhotic patients who underwent elective (n = 1973) or emergency (n = 224) surgery. We analyzed the risk factors for postoperative mortality and established a scoring system for predicting postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients using a split-sample method. In-hospital mortality rates following elective or emergency surgery were 4.7% and 20.5%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, patient age, Child-Pugh (CP) class, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and duration of anesthesia in elective surgery were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. In emergency surgery, CP class and duration of anesthesia were significant factors. Based on multivariate analysis in the training set (n = 987), the Adequate Operative Treatment for Liver Cirrhosis (ADOPT-LC) score that used patient age, CP class, CCI, and duration of anesthesia to predict in-hospital mortality following elective surgery was developed. This scoring system was validated in the testing set (n = 986) and produced an area under the curve of 0.881. We also developed iOS/Android apps to calculate ADOPT-LC scores to allow easy access to the current evidence in daily clinical practice. Patient age, CP class, CCI, and duration of anesthesia were identified as important risk factors for predicting postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients. The ADOPT-LC score effectively predicts in-hospital mortality following elective surgery and may assist decisions regarding surgical procedures in cirrhotic patients based on a quantitative risk assessment. © 2016 The Authors Hepatology Research published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japan Society of Hepatology.

Fat-related dietary behaviors of adult Puerto Ricans, with and without diabetes, in New York City.

PubMed

Melnik, Thomas A; Spence, Maureen M; Hosler, Akiko S

2006-09-01

To assess the fat-related dietary behaviors of adult Puerto Ricans with and without diagnosed diabetes, living in New York City. A random-digit-dialing telephone survey was conducted following Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System procedures. Dietary behavior was assessed using a brief Fat-Related Diet Habits Questionnaire, in which higher scores indicated higher fat intake. A total of 1,304 adult Puerto Ricans living in New York City were interviewed. Diabetes status was assessed using standard Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System questions. Weighted analyses using SUDAAN software for complex surveys were done, and t tests were used to assess differences in mean fat-related dietary score by sociodemographic and health characteristics. Age-adjusted least-squared means were used to compare scores between those with and without diabetes. Linear regression was used to model characteristics associated with fat-related dietary score. Fat-related dietary score was lower among those with diabetes and varied by population and health characteristics. Age-adjusted scores were significantly lower for those with diabetes who were younger, less educated, obese, or physically active. In the regression model, family history, weight, and exercise interacted with diabetes status. Those with diabetes were significantly more likely to modify meat consumption practices (eg, remove skin or trim fat) to reduce fat compared with those without diabetes. New York City Puerto Ricans with diabetes are somewhat more likely to engage in behaviors to reduce fat compared with those without diabetes. Targeted, culturally sensitive nutrition education and counseling emphasizing lower-fat food choices and other fat-reducing behaviors can help reduce risk and control diabetes. Education messages should be tailored to the individual's diabetes status and other health and sociodemographic characteristics.

What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

PubMed Central

Pletcher, Mark J; Tice, Jeffrey A; Pignone, Michael; McCulloch, Charles; Callister, Tracy Q; Browner, Warren S

2004-01-01

Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female), we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham) to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance), her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years). In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy. PMID:15327691

The predictive ability of the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation: the MAQI(2) experience.

PubMed

Barnes, Geoffrey D; Gu, Xiaokui; Haymart, Brian; Kline-Rogers, Eva; Almany, Steve; Kozlowski, Jay; Besley, Dennis; Krol, Gregory D; Froehlich, James B; Kaatz, Scott

2014-08-01

Guidelines recommend the assessment of stroke and bleeding risk before initiating warfarin anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation. Many of the elements used to predict stroke also overlap with bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation patients and it is tempting to use stroke risk scores to efficiently estimate bleeding risk. Comparison of stroke risk scores to bleeding risk scores to predict bleeding has not been thoroughly assessed. 2600 patients followed at seven anticoagulation clinics were followed from October 2009-May 2013. Five risk models (CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED and ATRIA) were retrospectively applied to each patient. The primary outcome was the first major bleeding event. Area under the ROC curves were compared with C statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis was performed. 110 patients experienced a major bleeding event in 2581.6 patient-years (4.5%/year). Mean follow up was 1.0±0.8years. All of the formal bleeding risk scores had a modest predictive value for first major bleeding events (C statistic 0.66-0.69), performing better than CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (C statistic difference 0.10 - 0.16). NRI analysis demonstrated a 52-69% and 47-64% improvement of the formal bleeding risk scores over the CHADS2 score and CHA2DS2-VASc score, respectively. The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores did not perform as well as formal bleeding risk scores for prediction of major bleeding in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients treated with warfarin. All three bleeding risk scores (HAS-BLED, ATRIA and HEMORR2HAGES) performed moderately well. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Usability verification of the Emergency Trauma Score (EMTRAS) and Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) in patients with trauma: A retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Park, Hyun Oh; Kim, Jong Woo; Kim, Sung Hwan; Moon, Seong Ho; Byun, Joung Hun; Kim, Ki Nyun; Yang, Jun Ho; Lee, Chung Eun; Jang, In Seok; Kang, Dong Hun; Kim, Seong Chun; Kang, Changwoo; Choi, Jun Young

2017-11-01

Early estimation of mortality risk in patients with trauma is essential. In this study, we evaluate the validity of the Emergency Trauma Score (EMTRAS) and Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with trauma. Furthermore, we compared the REMS and the EMTRAS with 2 other scoring systems: the Revised Trauma Score (RTS) and Injury Severity score (ISS).We performed a retrospective chart review of 6905 patients with trauma reported between July 2011 and June 2016 at a large national university hospital in South Korea. We analyzed the associations between patient characteristics, treatment course, and injury severity scoring systems (ISS, RTS, EMTRAS, and REMS) with in-hospital mortality. Discriminating power was compared between scoring systems using the areas under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 3.1%. Higher EMTRAS and REMS scores were associated with hospital mortality (P < .001). The ROC curve demonstrated adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.957 for EMTRAS and 0.9 for REMS). After performing AUC analysis followed by Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons, EMTRAS was significantly superior to REMS and ISS in predicting in-hospital mortality (P < .001), but not significantly different from the RTS (P = .057). The other scoring systems were not significantly different from each other.The EMTRAS and the REMS are simple, accurate predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with trauma.

64 slice MDCT generally underestimates coronary calcium scores as compared to EBT: A phantom study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greuter, M. J. W.; Dijkstra, H.; Groen, J. M.

The objective of our study was the determination of the influence of the sequential and spiral acquisition modes on the concordance and deviation of the calcium score on 64-slice multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) scanners in comparison to electron beam tomography (EBT) as the gold standard. Our methods and materials were an anthropomorphic cardio CT phantom with different calcium inserts scanned in sequential and spiral acquisition modes on three identical 64-slice MDCT scanners of manufacturer A and on three identical 64-slice MDCT scanners of manufacturer B and on an EBT system. Every scan was repeated 30 times with and 15 timesmore » without a small random variation in the phantom position for both sequential and spiral modes. Significant differences were observed between EBT and 64-slice MDCT data for all inserts, both acquisition modes, and both manufacturers of MDCT systems. High regression coefficients (0.90-0.98) were found between the EBT and 64-slice MDCT data for both scoring methods and both systems with high correlation coefficients (R{sup 2}>0.94). System A showed more significant differences between spiral and sequential mode than system B. Almost no differences were observed in scanners of the same manufacturer for the Agatston score and no differences for the Volume score. The deviations of the Agatston and Volume scores showed regression dependencies approximately equal to the square root of the absolute score. The Agatston and Volume scores obtained with 64-slice MDCT imaging are highly correlated with EBT-obtained scores but are significantly underestimated (-10% to -2%) for both sequential and spiral acquisition modes. System B is more independent of acquisition mode to calcium score than system A. The Volume score shows no intramanufacturer dependency and its use is advocated versus the Agatston score. Using the same cut points for MDCT-based calcium scores as for EBT-based calcium scores can result in classifying individuals into a too low risk category. System information and scanprotocol is therefore needed for every calcium score procedure to ensure a correct clinical interpretation of the obtained calcium score results.« less

Derivation and validation of a novel risk score for safe discharge after acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding: a modelling study.

PubMed

Oakland, Kathryn; Jairath, Vipul; Uberoi, Raman; Guy, Richard; Ayaru, Lakshmana; Mortensen, Neil; Murphy, Mike F; Collins, Gary S

2017-09-01

Acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding is a common reason for emergency hospital admission, and identification of patients at low risk of harm, who are therefore suitable for outpatient investigation, is a clinical and research priority. We aimed to develop and externally validate a simple risk score to identify patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding who could safely avoid hospital admission. We undertook model development with data from the National Comparative Audit of Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding from 143 hospitals in the UK in 2015. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to identify predictors of safe discharge, defined as the absence of rebleeding, blood transfusion, therapeutic intervention, 28 day readmission, or death. The model was converted into a simplified risk scoring system and was externally validated in 288 patients admitted with lower gastrointestinal bleeding (184 safely discharged) from two UK hospitals (Charing Cross Hospital, London, and Hammersmith Hospital, London) that had not contributed data to the development cohort. We calculated C statistics for the new model and did a comparative assessment with six previously developed risk scores. Of 2336 prospectively identified admissions in the development cohort, 1599 (68%) were safely discharged. Age, sex, previous admission for lower gastrointestinal bleeding, rectal examination findings, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, and haemoglobin concentration strongly discriminated safe discharge in the development cohort (C statistic 0·84, 95% CI 0·82-0·86) and in the validation cohort (0·79, 0·73-0·84). Calibration plots showed the new risk score to have good calibration in the validation cohort. The score was better than the Rockall, Blatchford, Strate, BLEED, AIMS65, and NOBLADS scores in predicting safe discharge. A score of 8 or less predicts a 95% probability of safe discharge. We developed and validated a novel clinical prediction model with good discriminative performance to identify patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding who are suitable for safe outpatient management, which has important economic and resource implications. Bowel Disease Research Foundation and National Health Service Blood and Transplant. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Working postures of dental students: ergonomic analysis using the Ovako Working Analysis System and rapid upper limb assessment.

PubMed

Petromilli Nordi Sasso Garcia, Patrícia; Polli, Gabriela Scatimburgo; Campos, Juliana Alvares Duarte Bonini

2013-01-01

As dentistry is a profession that demands a manipulative precision of hand movements, musculoskeletal disorders are among the most common occupational diseases. This study estimated the risk of musculoskeletal disorders developing in dental students using the Ovako Working Analysis System (OWAS) and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) methods, and estimated the diagnostic agreement between the 2 methods. Students (n = 75), enrolled in the final undergraduate year at the Araraquara School of Dentistry--UNESP--were studied. Photographs were taken of students while performing diverse clinical procedures (n = 283) using a digital camera, which were assessed using OWAS and RULA. A risk score was attributed following each procedure performed by the student. The prevalence of the risk of musculoskeletal disorders was estimated per point and for a 95% CI. To assess the agreement between the 2 methods, Kappa statistics with linear weighting were used. The level of significance adopted was 5%. There was a high prevalence of the mean score for risk of musculoskeletal disorders in the dental students evaluated according to the OWAS method (p = 97.88%; 95% CI: 96.20-99.56%), and a high prevalence of the high score (p = 40.6; 95% CI: 34.9-46.4%) and extremely high risk (p = 59.4%; 95% CI: 53.6-65.1%) according to RULA method Null agreement was verified (k = 0) in the risk di agnosis of the tested methods. The risk of musculoskeletal disorders in dental students estimated by the OWAS method was medium, whereas the same risk by the RULA method was extremely high. There was no diagnostic agreement between the OWAS and RULA methods.

Contribution of Revised International Prognostic Scoring System Cytogenetics to Predict Outcome After Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation for Myelodysplastic Syndromes: A Study From the French Society of Bone Marrow Transplantation and Cellular Therapy.

PubMed

Gauthier, Jordan; Damaj, Gandhi; Langlois, Carole; Robin, Marie; Michallet, Mauricette; Chevallier, Patrice; Beguin, Yves; N'guyen, Stéphanie; Bories, Pierre; Blaise, Didier; Cornillon, Jérôme; Clavert, Aline; Mohty, Mohamad; Huynh, Anne; Thiébaut-Bertrand, Anne; Vigouroux, Stéphane; Duhamel, Alain; Yakoub-Agha, Ibrahim

2015-08-01

The prognosis of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) after allogeneic stem cell transplantation is critically determined by cytogenetic abnormalities, as previously defined by International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) cytogenetics. It has been shown that a new cytogenetic classification, included in the IPSS-R (cytogenetic-IPSS-R [C-IPSS-R]), can better predict the outcome of untreated MDS patients. In this study, we assessed the impact of the IPSS-R cytogenetic score (C-IPSS-R) on the outcome of 367 MDS patients transplanted from HLA-identical siblings or HLA allele-matched unrelated donors. According to the C-IPSS-R, 178 patients (48%) fell in the good risk, 102 (28%) in the intermediate risk, 77 (21%) in the poor risk, and 10 (3%) in the very poor risk group. In multivariate analysis, after a median follow-up of 4 years, the poor and very poor-risk categories correlated with shorter overall survival (OS) (4-year OS, 32%; hazard ratio [HR], 1.59; P = 0.009 and OS, 10%; HR, 3.18; P = 0.002, respectively) and higher cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR) (CIR, 52%; HR, 1.82; P = 0.004 and CIR, 60%; HR, 2.44; P = 0.060, respectively). Overall, the C-IPSS-R changed the IPSS cytogenetic risk only in 8% of cases but identified a new risk group, the very poor C-IPSS-R category, with dismal outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (10% 4-year OS, 60% 4-year CIR). Posttransplantation maintenance therapy should be investigated in prospective trials for patients with high-risk C-IPSS-R karyotypes.

Sorting Out the Health Risk in California's State-Based Marketplace.

PubMed

Bindman, Andrew B; Hulett, Denis; Gilmer, Todd P; Bertko, John

2016-02-01

To characterize the health risk of enrollees in California's state-based insurance marketplace (Covered California) by metal tier, region, month of enrollment, and plan. 2014 Open-enrollment data from Covered California linked with 2012 hospitalization and emergency department (ED) visit records from statewide all-payer administrative databases. Chronic Illness and Disability Payment System (CDPS) health risk scores derived from an individual's age and sex from the enrollment file and the diagnoses captured in the hospitalization and ED records. CDPS scores were standardized by setting the average to 1.00. Among the 1,286,089 enrollees, 120,573 (9.4 percent) had at least one ED visit and/or a hospitalization in 2012. Higher risk enrollees chose plans with greater actuarial value. The standardized CDPS health risk score was 11 percent higher in the first month of enrollment (1.08; 99 percent CI: 1.07-1.09) than the last month (0.97; 99 percent CI: 0.97-0.97). Four of the 12 plans enrolled 91 percent of individuals; their average health risk scores were each within 3 percent of the marketplace's statewide average. Providing health plans with a means to assess the health risk of their year 1 enrollees allowed them to anticipate whether they would receive or contribute payments to a risk-adjustment pool. After receiving these findings as a part of their negotiations with Covered California, health plans covering the majority of enrollees decreased their initially proposed 2015 rates, saving consumers tens of millions of dollars in potential premiums. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Nonresponse to 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate for recurrent spontaneous preterm birth prevention: clinical prediction and generation of a risk scoring system.

PubMed

Manuck, Tracy A; Stoddard, Gregory J; Fry, Rebecca C; Esplin, M Sean; Varner, Michael W

2016-11-01

Spontaneous preterm birth remains a leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality among nonanomalous neonates in the United States. Spontaneous preterm birth tends to recur at similar gestational ages. Intramuscular 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate reduces the risk of recurrent spontaneous preterm birth. Unfortunately, one-third of high-risk women will have a recurrent spontaneous preterm birth despite 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate therapy; the reasons for this variability in response are unknown. We hypothesized that clinical factors among women treated with 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate who suffer recurrent spontaneous preterm birth at a similar gestational age differ from women who deliver later, and that these associations could be used to generate a clinical scoring system to predict 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate response. Secondary analysis of a prospective, multicenter, randomized controlled trial enrolling women with ≥1 previous singleton spontaneous preterm birth <37 weeks' gestation. Participants received daily omega-3 supplementation or placebo for the prevention of recurrent preterm birth; all were provided 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate. Women were classified as a 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate responder or nonresponder by calculating the difference in delivery gestational age between the 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate-treated pregnancy and her earliest previous spontaneous preterm birth. Responders were women with pregnancy extending ≥3 weeks later compared with the delivery gestational age of their earliest previous preterm birth; nonresponders delivered earlier or within 3 weeks of the gestational age of their earliest previous preterm birth. A risk score for nonresponse to 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate was generated from regression models via the use of clinical predictors and was validated in an independent population. Data were analyzed with multivariable logistic regression. A total of 754 women met inclusion criteria; 159 (21%) were nonresponders. Responders delivered later on average (37.7±2.5 weeks) than nonresponders (31.5±5.3 weeks), P<.001. Among responders, 27% had a recurrent spontaneous preterm birth (vs 100% of nonresponders). Demographic characteristics were similar between responders and nonresponders. In a multivariable logistic regression model, independent risk factors for nonresponse to 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate were each additional week of gestation of the earliest previous preterm birth (odds ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.30, P<.001), placental abruption or significant vaginal bleeding (odds ratio, 5.60; 95% confidence interval, 2.46-12.71, P<.001), gonorrhea and/or chlamydia in the current pregnancy (odds ratio, 3.59; 95% confidence interval, 1.36-9.48, P=.010), carriage of a male fetus (odds ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-2.24, P=.040), and a penultimate preterm birth (odds ratio, 2.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-4.25, P=.041). These clinical factors were used to generate a risk score for nonresponse to 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate as follows: black +1, male fetus +1, penultimate preterm birth +2, gonorrhea/chlamydia +4, placental abruption +5, earliest previous preterm birth was 32-36 weeks +5. A total risk score >6 was 78% sensitive and 60% specific for predicting nonresponse to 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate (area under the curve=0.69). This scoring system was validated in an independent population of 287 women; in the validation set, a total risk score >6 performed similarly with a 65% sensitivity, 67% specificity and area under the curve of 0.66. Several clinical characteristics define women at risk for recurrent preterm birth at a similar gestational age despite 17-alpha hydroxyprogesterone caproate therapy and can be used to generate a clinical risk predictor score. These data should be refined and confirmed in other cohorts, and women at high risk for nonresponse should be targets for novel therapeutic intervention studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the use of antibiotic prophylaxis during open reduction and internal fixation surgery in patients at low risk of surgical site infection.

PubMed

Xu, Sheng-Gen; Mao, Zhao-Guang; Liu, Bin-Sheng; Zhu, Hui-Hua; Pan, Hui-Lin

2015-02-01

Widespread overuse and inappropriate use of antibiotics contribute to increasingly antibiotic-resistant pathogens and higher health care costs. It is not clear whether routine antibiotic prophylaxis can reduce the rate of surgical site infection (SSI) in low-risk patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery. We designed a simple scorecard to grade SSI risk factors and determined whether routine antibiotic prophylaxis affects SSI occurrence during open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) orthopaedic surgeries in trauma patients at low risk of developing SSI. The SSI risk scorecard (possible total points ranged from 5 to 25) was designed to take into account a patient's general health status, the primary cause of fractures, surgical site tissue condition or wound class, types of devices implanted, and surgical duration. Patients with a low SSI risk score (≤8 points) who were undergoing clean ORIF surgery were divided into control (routine antibiotic treatment, cefuroxime) and evaluation (no antibiotic treatment) groups and followed up for 13-17 months after surgery. The infection rate was much higher in patients with high SSI risk scores (≥9 points) than in patients with low risk scores assigned to the control group (10.7% vs. 2.2%, P<0.0001). SSI occurred in 11 of 499 patients in the control group and in 13 of 534 patients in the evaluation group during the follow-up period of 13-17 months. The SSI occurrence rate did not differ significantly (2.2% vs. 2.4%, P=0.97) between the control and evaluation groups. Routine antibiotic prophylaxis does not significantly decrease the rate of SSI in ORIF surgical patients with a low risk score. Implementation of this scoring system could guide the rational use of perioperative antibiotics and ultimately reduce antibiotic resistance, health care costs, and adverse reactions to antibiotics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimizing Clinical Drug Product Performance: Applying Biopharmaceutics Risk Assessment Roadmap (BioRAM) and the BioRAM Scoring Grid.

PubMed

Dickinson, Paul A; Kesisoglou, Filippos; Flanagan, Talia; Martinez, Marilyn N; Mistry, Hitesh B; Crison, John R; Polli, James E; Cruañes, Maria T; Serajuddin, Abu T M; Müllertz, Anette; Cook, Jack A; Selen, Arzu

2016-11-01

The aim of Biopharmaceutics Risk Assessment Roadmap (BioRAM) and the BioRAM Scoring Grid is to facilitate optimization of clinical performance of drug products. BioRAM strategy relies on therapy-driven drug delivery and follows an integrated systems approach for formulating and addressing critical questions and decision-making (J Pharm Sci. 2014,103(11): 3777-97). In BioRAM, risk is defined as not achieving the intended in vivo drug product performance, and success is assessed by time to decision-making and action. Emphasis on time to decision-making and time to action highlights the value of well-formulated critical questions and well-designed and conducted integrated studies. This commentary describes and illustrates application of the BioRAM Scoring Grid, a companion to the BioRAM strategy, which guides implementation of such an integrated strategy encompassing 12 critical areas and 6 assessment stages. Application of the BioRAM Scoring Grid is illustrated using published literature. Organizational considerations for implementing BioRAM strategy, including the interactions, function, and skillsets of the BioRAM group members, are also reviewed. As a creative and innovative systems approach, we believe that BioRAM is going to have a broad-reaching impact, influencing drug development and leading to unique collaborations influencing how we learn, and leverage and share knowledge. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Computed Tomographic Evaluation of Posttreatment Soft-Tissue Changes by Using a Lymphedema Scoring System in Patients with Oral Cancer.

PubMed

Akashi, Masaya; Teraoka, Shun; Kakei, Yasumasa; Kusumoto, Junya; Hasegawa, Takumi; Minamikawa, Tsutomu; Hashikawa, Kazunobu; Komori, Takahide

2018-04-01

This study aimed to evaluate posttreatment soft-tissue changes in patients with oral cancer with computed tomography (CT). To accomplish that purpose, a scoring system was established, referring to the criteria of lower leg lymphedema (LE). One hundred and six necks in 95 patients who underwent oral oncologic surgery with neck dissection (ND) were analyzed retrospectively using routine follow-up CT images. A two-point scoring system to evaluate soft-tissue changes (so-called "LE score") was established as follows: Necks with a "honeycombing" appearance were assigned 1 point. Necks with "taller than wide" fat lobules were assigned 1 point. Necks with neither appearance were assigned 0 points. Comparisons between patients with LE score ≥1 and LE score = 0 at 6 months postoperatively were performed using the Fisher exact test for discrete variables and the Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables. Univariate predictors associated with posttreatment changes (i.e., LE score ≥1 at 6 months postoperatively) were entered into a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Values of p < 0.05 were considered to indicate statistical significance. The occurrence of the posttreatment soft-tissue changes was 32%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that postoperative radiation therapy (RT) and bilateral ND were potential risk factors of posttreatment soft-tissue changes on CT images. Sequential evaluation of "honeycombing" and the "taller than wide" appearances on routine follow-up CT revealed the persistence of posttreatment soft-tissue changes in patients who underwent oral cancer treatment, and those potential risk factors were postoperative RT and bilateral ND.

Performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II: a meta-analysis of 22 studies involving 145,592 cardiac surgery procedures.

PubMed

Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico

2014-12-01

A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous improvement of patients' risk stratification before cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Computed tomographic measurement of coronary artery calcification in the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a descriptive study].

PubMed

Morcillo, César; Valderas, José M; Roca, Joan M; Oliveró, Ruperto; Núñez, Cristina; Sánchez, Mónica; Bechich, Siraj

2007-03-01

Measurement of coronary artery calcification (CAC) is used in the evaluation of cardiovascular risk. We investigated its usefulness by comparing CAC assessment with that of various risk charts. We determined cardiovascular risk in patients without known atherosclerosis using the 1998 European Task Force (ETF), REGICOR (Registre Gironí del Corazón) and SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation) charts. CAC was assessed by computerized tomography and measurements were classified as low risk (i.e., score <1), intermediate risk (i.e., score 1-100), or high risk (i.e., score >100). The study included 331 patients (mean age 54 [8.5] years, 89% male). In 44.1%, CAC was detected (mean score 96 [278]). The degree of agreement between the cardiovascular risk derived from the CAC score and that derived from the SCORE and ETF charts was acceptable: kappa=.33 (P<.05) and kappa=.28 (P<.05), respectively, but agreement was poor with the REGICOR chart: kappa=.02 (P=.32). The SCORE and ETF charts, respectively, classified 45.0% and 38.3% of patients with a CAC score >100 as high risk, whereas the REGICOR chart did not classify any of these patients as high risk. Male sex, older age, smoking history, and a family history of coronary heart disease were all associated with the detection of CAC. Measurement of CAC demonstrated calcification in 44.1% of patients without known atherosclerosis. By regarding those with a CAC score > 100 as high-risk, 10.4% of patients evaluated using the SCORE chart would be reclassified as high risk, as would 11.6% of those evaluated using the ETF chart, and 18.9% of those evaluated using the REGICOR chart. Consequently, more patients would be eligible for preventative treatment.

Prediction of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: performance of original and adapted SCORE algorithms.

PubMed

Arts, E E A; Popa, C D; Den Broeder, A A; Donders, R; Sandoo, A; Toms, T; Rollefstad, S; Ikdahl, E; Semb, A G; Kitas, G D; Van Riel, P L C M; Fransen, J

2016-04-01

Predictive performance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk calculators appears suboptimal in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A disease-specific CVD risk algorithm may improve CVD risk prediction in RA. The objectives of this study are to adapt the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm with determinants of CVD risk in RA and to assess the accuracy of CVD risk prediction calculated with the adapted SCORE algorithm. Data from the Nijmegen early RA inception cohort were used. The primary outcome was first CVD events. The SCORE algorithm was recalibrated by reweighing included traditional CVD risk factors and adapted by adding other potential predictors of CVD. Predictive performance of the recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms was assessed and the adapted SCORE was externally validated. Of the 1016 included patients with RA, 103 patients experienced a CVD event. Discriminatory ability was comparable across the original, recalibrated and adapted SCORE algorithms. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results indicated that all three algorithms provided poor model fit (p<0.05) for the Nijmegen and external validation cohort. The adapted SCORE algorithm mainly improves CVD risk estimation in non-event cases and does not show a clear advantage in reclassifying patients with RA who develop CVD (event cases) into more appropriate risk groups. This study demonstrates for the first time that adaptations of the SCORE algorithm do not provide sufficient improvement in risk prediction of future CVD in RA to serve as an appropriate alternative to the original SCORE. Risk assessment using the original SCORE algorithm may underestimate CVD risk in patients with RA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

2018-03-01

While modifiable bleeding risks should be addressed in all patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), use of a bleeding risk score enables clinicians to 'flag up' those at risk of bleeding for more regular patient contact reviews. We compared a risk assessment strategy for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) based on modifiable bleeding risk factors (referred to as a 'MBR factors' score) against established bleeding risk stratification scores (HEMORR 2 HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT). A nationwide cohort study of 40,450 AF patients who received warfarin for stroke prevention was performed. The clinical endpoints included ICH and major bleeding. Bleeding scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (areas under the ROC curves [AUCs], or c-index) and the net reclassification index (NRI). During a follow up of 4.60±3.62years, 1581 (3.91%) patients sustained ICH and 6889 (17.03%) patients sustained major bleeding events. All tested bleeding risk scores at baseline were higher in those sustaining major bleeds. When compared to no ICH, patients sustaining ICH had higher baseline HEMORR 2 HAGES (p=0.003), HAS-BLED (p<0.001) and MBR factors score (p=0.013) but not ATRIA and ORBIT scores. When HAS-BLED was compared to other bleeding scores, c-indexes were significantly higher compared to MBR factors (p<0.001) and ORBIT (p=0.05) scores for major bleeding. C-indexes for the MBR factors score was significantly lower compared to all other scores (De long test, all p<0.001). When NRI was performed, HAS-BLED outperformed all other bleeding risk scores for major bleeding (all p<0.001). C-indexes for ATRIA and ORBIT scores suggested no significant prediction for ICH. All contemporary bleeding risk scores had modest predictive value for predicting major bleeding but the best predictive value and NRI was found for the HAS-BLED score. Simply depending on modifiable bleeding risk factors had suboptimal predictive value for the prediction of major bleeding in AF patients, when compared to the HAS-BLED score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metabolomic determinants of metabolic risk in Mexican adolescents

PubMed Central

Perng, Wei; Hector, Emily C.; Song, Peter X.K.; Rojo, Martha Maria Tellez; Raskind, Sasha; Kachman, Maureen; Cantoral, Alejandra; Burant, Charles F.; Peterson, Karen E.

2017-01-01

Objective To identify metabolites associated with metabolic risk, separately by sex, in Mexican adolescents. Methods We carried out untargeted metabolomic profiling on fasting serum of 238 youth age 8–14 years, and identified metabolites associated with a metabolic syndrome risk z-score (MetRisk z-score), separately for boys and girls using the simulation and extrapolation (SIMEX) algorithm. We examined associations of each metabolite with MetRisk z-score using linear regression models that accounted for maternal education, child’s age, and pubertal status. Results Of the 938 features identified in metabolomics analysis, 7 named compounds (of 27 identified metabolites) were associated with MetRisk z-score in girls, and 3 named compounds (of 14 identified) were associated with MetRisk z-score in boys. In girls, diacylglycerol (DG) 16:0/16:0, 1,3-dielaidin, myo-inositol, and urate corresponded with higher MetRisk z-score, whereas N-acetylglycine, thymine, and dodecenedioic acid were associated with lower MetRisk z-score. For example, each z-score increment in DG 16:0/16:0 corresponded with 0.60 (0.47, 0.74). In boys, we found positive associations of DG 16:0/16:0, tyrosine, and 5′-methylthioadenosine with MetRisk z-score. Conclusions Metabolites on lipid, amino acid, and carbohydrate metabolism pathways are associated with metabolic risk in girls. Compounds on lipid and DNA pathways correspond with metabolic risk in boys. PMID:28758362

Differences of wells scores accuracy, caprini scores and padua scores in deep vein thrombosis diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gatot, D.; Mardia, A. I.

2018-03-01

Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) is the venous thrombus in lower limbs. Diagnosis is by using venography or ultrasound compression. However, these examinations are not available yet in some health facilities. Therefore many scoring systems are developed for the diagnosis of DVT. The scoring method is practical and safe to use in addition to efficacy, and effectiveness in terms of treatment and costs. The existing scoring systems are wells, caprini and padua score. There have been many studies comparing the accuracy of this score but not in Medan. Therefore, we are interested in comparative research of wells, capriniand padua score in Medan.An observational, analytical, case-control study was conducted to perform diagnostic tests on the wells, caprini and padua score to predict the risk of DVT. The study was at H. Adam Malik Hospital in Medan.From a total of 72 subjects, 39 people (54.2%) are men and the mean age are 53.14 years. Wells score, caprini score and padua score has a sensitivity of 80.6%; 61.1%, 50% respectively; specificity of 80.65; 66.7%; 75% respectively, and accuracy of 87.5%; 64.3%; 65.7% respectively.Wells score has better sensitivity, specificity and accuracy than caprini and padua score in diagnosing DVT.

Leisure-Time Physical Activity, but not Commuting Physical Activity, is Associated with Cardiovascular Risk among ELSA-Brasil Participants.

PubMed

Pitanga, Francisco José Gondim; Matos, Sheila M A; Almeida, Maria da Conceição; Barreto, Sandhi Maria; Aquino, Estela M L

2018-01-01

Despite reports in the literature that both leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and commuting physical activity (CPA) can promote health benefits, the literature lacks studies comparing the associations of these domains of physical activity with cardiovascular risk scores. To investigate the association between LTPA and CPA with different cardiovascular risk scores in the cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Adult Health ELSA-Brasil. Cross-sectional study with data from 13,721 participants of both genders, aged 35-74 years, free of cardiovascular disease, from ELSA Brazil. Physical activity was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Five cardiovascular risk scores were used: Framingham score - coronary heart disease (cholesterol); Framingham score - coronary heart disease (LDL-C); Framingham score - cardiovascular disease (cholesterol); Framingham score - cardiovascular disease (body mass index, BMI); and pooled cohort equations for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Associations adjusted for confounding variables between physical activity and different cardiovascular risk scores were analyzed by logistic regression. Confidence interval of 95% (95%CI) was considered. LTPA is inversely associated with almost all cardiovascular risk scores analyzed, while CPA shows no statistically significant association with any of them. Dose-response effect in association between LTPA and cardiovascular risk scores was also found, especially in men. LTPA was shown to be associated with the cardiovascular risk scores analyzed, but CPA not. The amount of physical activity (duration and intensity) was more significantly associated, especially in men, with cardiovascular risk scores in ELSA-Brasil.

A simplified clinical risk score predicts the need for early endoscopy in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Tammaro, Leonardo; Buda, Andrea; Di Paolo, Maria Carla; Zullo, Angelo; Hassan, Cesare; Riccio, Elisabetta; Vassallo, Roberto; Caserta, Luigi; Anderloni, Andrea; Natali, Alessandro

2014-09-01

Pre-endoscopic triage of patients who require an early upper endoscopy can improve management of patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. To validate a new simplified clinical score (T-score) to assess the need of an early upper endoscopy in non variceal bleeding patients. Secondary outcomes were re-bleeding rate, 30-day bleeding-related mortality. In this prospective, multicentre study patients with bleeding who underwent upper endoscopy were enrolled. The accuracy for high risk endoscopic stigmata of the T-score was compared with that of the Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Overall, 602 patients underwent early upper endoscopy, and 472 presented with non-variceal bleeding. High risk endoscopic stigmata were detected in 145 (30.7%) cases. T-score sensitivity and specificity for high risk endoscopic stigmata and bleeding-related mortality was 96% and 30%, and 80% and 71%, respectively. No statistically difference in predicting high risk endoscopic stigmata between T-score and Glasgow Blatchford risk score was observed (ROC curve: 0.72 vs. 0.69, p=0.11). The two scores were also similar in predicting re-bleeding (ROC curve: 0.64 vs. 0.63, p=0.4) and 30-day bleeding-related mortality (ROC curve: 0.78 vs. 0.76, p=0.3). The T-score appeared to predict high risk endoscopic stigmata, re-bleeding and mortality with similar accuracy to Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Such a score may be helpful for the prediction of high-risk patients who need a very early therapeutic endoscopy. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanquist, Thomas F.; Mahy, Heidi A.; Morris, Fred A.

Understanding the issues surrounding public acceptance of homeland security systems is important for balancing security needs and potential civil liberties infringements. A psychometric survey was used to measure attitudes regarding homeland security systems. Psychometric rating data were obtained from 182 respondents on psychological attributes associated with 12 distinct types of homeland security systems. An inverse relationship was observed for the overall rating attributes of acceptability and risk of civil liberties infringement. Principal components analysis yielded a two factor solution, with the rating scale loading pattern suggesting factors of Perceived Effectiveness and Perceived Intrusiveness. These factors also showed an inverse relationship.more » The 12 different homeland security systems showed significantly different scores on the rating scales and PCA factors, which were used to rank the systems in terms of overall acceptability. Difference scores for the rating scales and PCA factors were used to compute a single acceptability value reflecting the relative weight of risks and benefits. Of the 12 systems studied, airport screening, canine detectors and radiation monitoring at borders were found to be relatively acceptable, i.e., the perceived benefits for homeland security outweighed the perceived risks to civil liberties. Students rated several systems as more effective than professionals, but the overall pattern of results for both types of subjects was similar. The data suggest that risk perception research and the psychometric paradigm are useful approaches for quantifying attitudes regarding homeland security systems and policies, and can be used to anticipate potentially significant public acceptance issues.« less

Derivation, Validation and Application of a Pragmatic Risk Prediction Index for Benchmarking of Surgical Outcomes.

PubMed

Spence, Richard T; Chang, David C; Kaafarani, Haytham M A; Panieri, Eugenio; Anderson, Geoffrey A; Hutter, Matthew M

2018-02-01

Despite the existence of multiple validated risk assessment and quality benchmarking tools in surgery, their utility outside of high-income countries is limited. We sought to derive, validate and apply a scoring system that is both (1) feasible, and (2) reliably predicts mortality in a middle-income country (MIC) context. A 5-step methodology was used: (1) development of a de novo surgical outcomes database modeled around the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) in South Africa (SA dataset), (2) use of the resultant data to identify all predictors of in-hospital death with more than 90% capture indicating feasibility of collection, (3) use these predictors to derive and validate an integer-based score that reliably predicts in-hospital death in the 2012 ACS-NSQIP, (4) apply the score in the original SA dataset and demonstrate its performance, (5) identify threshold cutoffs of the score to prompt action and drive quality improvement. Following step one-three above, the 13 point Codman's score was derived and validated on 211,737 and 109,079 patients, respectively, and includes: age 65 (1), partially or completely dependent functional status (1), preoperative transfusions ≥4 units (1), emergency operation (2), sepsis or septic shock (2) American Society of Anesthesia score ≥3 (3) and operative procedure (1-3). Application of the score to 373 patients in the SA dataset showed good discrimination and calibration to predict an in-hospital death. A Codman Score of 8 is an optimal cutoff point for defining expected and unexpected deaths. We have designed a novel risk prediction score specific for a MIC context. The Codman Score can prove useful for both (1) preoperative decision-making and (2) benchmarking the quality of surgical care in MIC's.

Clinical predictors of risk for atrial fibrillation: implications for diagnosis and monitoring.

PubMed

Brunner, Kyle J; Bunch, T Jared; Mullin, Christopher M; May, Heidi T; Bair, Tami L; Elliot, David W; Anderson, Jeffrey L; Mahapatra, Srijoy

2014-11-01

To create a risk score using clinical factors to determine whom to screen and monitor for atrial fibrillation (AF). The AF risk score was developed based on the summed odds ratios (ORs) for AF development of 7 accepted clinical risk factors. The AF risk score is intended to assess the risk of AF similar to how the CHA2DS2-VASc score assesses stroke risk. Seven validated risk factors for AF were used to develop the AF risk score: age, coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus, sex, heart failure, hypertension, and valvular disease. The AF risk score was tested within a random population sample of the Intermountain Healthcare outpatient database. Outcomes were stratified by AF risk score for OR and Kaplan-Meier analysis. A total of 100,000 patient records with an index follow-up from January 1, 2002, through December 31, 2007, were selected and followed up for the development of AF through the time of this analysis, May 13, 2013, through September 6, 2013. Mean ± SD follow-up time was 3106±819 days. The ORs of subsequent AF diagnosis of patients with AF risk scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 or higher were 3.05, 12.9, 22.8, 34.0, and 48.0, respectively. The area under the curve statistic for the AF risk score was 0.812 (95% CI, 0.805-0.820). We developed a simple AF risk score made up of common clinical factors that may be useful to possibly select patients for long-term monitoring for AF detection. Copyright © 2014 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Joint relative risks for estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer from a clinical model, polygenic risk score, and sex hormones.

PubMed

Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Ziv, Elad; Kerlikowske, Karla; Cummings, Steven R

2017-11-01

Models that predict the risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers may improve our ability to target chemoprevention. We investigated the contributions of sex hormones to the discrimination of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model and a polygenic risk score comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We conducted a nested case-control study of 110 women with ER-positive breast cancers and 214 matched controls within a mammography screening cohort. Participants were postmenopausal and not on hormonal therapy. The associations of estradiol, estrone, testosterone, and sex hormone binding globulin with ER-positive breast cancer were evaluated using conditional logistic regression. We assessed the individual and combined discrimination of estradiol, the BCSC risk score, and polygenic risk score using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Of the sex hormones assessed, estradiol (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.64-8.06 for top vs bottom quartile), and to a lesser degree estrone, was most strongly associated with ER-positive breast cancer in unadjusted analysis. The BCSC risk score (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00-1.75 per 1% increase) and polygenic risk score (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.06-2.36 per standard deviation) were also associated with ER-positive cancers. A model containing the BCSC risk score, polygenic risk score, and estradiol levels showed good discrimination for ER-positive cancers (AUROC 0.72, 95% CI 0.65-0.79), representing a significant improvement over the BCSC risk score (AUROC 0.58, 95% CI 0.50-0.65). Adding estradiol and a polygenic risk score to a clinical risk model improves discrimination for postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancers.

East meets West: the influence of racial, ethnic and cultural risk factors on cardiac surgical risk model performance.

PubMed

Soo-Hoo, Sarah; Nemeth, Samantha; Baser, Onur; Argenziano, Michael; Kurlansky, Paul

2018-01-01

To explore the impact of racial and ethnic diversity on the performance of cardiac surgical risk models, the Chinese SinoSCORE was compared with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk model in a diverse American population. The SinoSCORE risk model was applied to 13 969 consecutive coronary artery bypass surgery patients from twelve American institutions. SinoSCORE risk factors were entered into a logistic regression to create a 'derived' SinoSCORE whose performance was compared with that of the STS risk model. Observed mortality was 1.51% (66% of that predicted by STS model). The SinoSCORE 'low-risk' group had a mortality of 0.15%±0.04%, while the medium-risk and high-risk groups had mortalities of 0.35%±0.06% and 2.13%±0.14%, respectively. The derived SinoSCORE model had a relatively good discrimination (area under of the curve (AUC)=0.785) compared with that of the STS risk score (AUC=0.811; P=0.18 comparing the two). However, specific factors that were significant in the original SinoSCORE but that lacked significance in our derived model included body mass index, preoperative atrial fibrillation and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. SinoSCORE demonstrated limited discrimination when applied to an American population. The derived SinoSCORE had a discrimination comparable with that of the STS, suggesting underlying similarities of physiological substrate undergoing surgery. However, differential influence of various risk factors suggests that there may be varying degrees of importance and interactions between risk factors. Clinicians should exercise caution when applying risk models across varying populations due to potential differences that racial, ethnic and geographic factors may play in cardiac disease and surgical outcomes.

[Characterisation of thromboembolic risk in a mexican population with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and its effect on anticoagulation (MAYA Study)].

PubMed

Vázquez-Acosta, Jorge A; Ramírez-Gutiérrez, Álvaro E; Cerecedo-Rosendo, Mario A; Olivera-Barrera, Francisco M; Tenorio-Sánchez, Salvador S; Nieto-Villarreal, Javier; González-Borjas, José M; Villanueva-Rodríguez, Estefanie

2016-01-01

To evaluate the risk of stroke and bleeding using the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores in Mexican patients with atrial fibrillation and to analyze whether the risk score obtained determined treatment decisions regarding antithrombotic therapy. This is an observational, retrospective study in Mexican patients recently diagnosed with atrial fibrillation. The risk of stroke was assessed using the CHA2DS2-VASc scores. The bleeding risk was evaluated using the HAS-BLED score. The frequency of use of antithrombotic therapy was calculated according to the results of the score risk assessment. A total of 350 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation were analyzed. A 92.9% of patients had a high risk (score ≥ 2) of stroke according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score and only 17.2% were treated with anticoagulants. A high proportion of patients with atrial fibrillation (72.5%) showed both a high risk of stroke and a high risk of bleeding based on HAS-BLED score. In this group of patients with atrial fibrillation, from Northeast Mexico, there is a remarkably underutilization of anticoagulation despite the high risk of stroke of these patients.

Absolute fracture risk assessment using lumbar spine and femoral neck bone density measurements: derivation and validation of a hybrid system.

PubMed

Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M

2011-03-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) computes 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture from multiple risk factors, including femoral neck (FN) T-scores. Lumbar spine (LS) measurements are not currently part of the FRAX formulation but are used widely in clinical practice, and this creates confusion when there is spine-hip discordance. Our objective was to develop a hybrid 10-year absolute fracture risk assessment system in which nonvertebral (NV) fracture risk was assessed from the FN and clinical vertebral (V) fracture risk was assessed from the LS. We identified 37,032 women age 45 years and older undergoing baseline FN and LS dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA; 1990-2005) from a population database that contains all clinical DXA results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Results were linked to longitudinal health service records for physician billings and hospitalizations to identify nontrauma vertebral and nonvertebral fracture codes after bone mineral density (BMD) testing. The population was randomly divided into equal-sized derivation and validation cohorts. Using the derivation cohort, three fracture risk prediction systems were created from Cox proportional hazards models (adjusted for age and multiple FRAX risk factors): FN to predict combined all fractures, FN to predict nonvertebral fractures, and LS to predict vertebral (without nonvertebral) fractures. The hybrid system was the sum of nonvertebral risk from the FN model and vertebral risk from the LS model. The FN and hybrid systems were both strongly predictive of overall fracture risk (p < .001). In the validation cohort, ROC analysis showed marginally better performance of the hybrid system versus the FN system for overall fracture prediction (p = .24) and significantly better performance for vertebral fracture prediction (p < .001). In a discordance subgroup with FN and LS T-score differences greater than 1 SD, there was a significant improvement in overall fracture prediction with the hybrid method (p = .025). Risk reclassification under the hybrid system showed better alignment with observed fracture risk, with 6.4% of the women reclassified to a different risk category. In conclusion, a hybrid 10-year absolute fracture risk assessment system based on combining FN and LS information is feasible. The improvement in fracture risk prediction is small but supports clinical interest in a system that integrates LS in fracture risk assessment. Copyright © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Advanced age, cardiovascular risk burden, and timed up and go test performance in Parkinson disease.

PubMed

Kotagal, Vikas; Albin, Roger L; Müller, Martijn L T M; Koeppe, Robert A; Studenski, Stephanie; Frey, Kirk A; Bohnen, Nicolaas I

2014-12-01

Cardiovascular comorbidities are a known risk factor for impaired mobility in elderly individuals. Motor impairments in Parkinson disease are conventionally ascribed to nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation although progressive gait and balance impairments become more common with aging and often show limited response to dopaminergic replacement therapies. We explored the association between elevated cardiovascular risk factors and performance on the Timed Up and Go test in cross-sectional of Parkinson disease subjects (n = 83). Cardiovascular risk factor status was estimated using the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease risk-scoring algorithm in order to dichotomize the cohort into those with and without elevated modifiable cardiovascular risk compared with normative scores for age and gender. All subjects underwent clinical and neuroimaging evaluations including a 3-m Timed Up and Go test, [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine positron emission tomography imaging to estimate nigrostriatal dopamine terminal loss, and an magnetic resonance imaging assessment of leukoaraiosis. A similar analysis was performed in 49 healthy controls. After adjusting for disease duration, leukoaraiosis, and nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation, Parkinson disease subjects with elevated Framingham risk scores (n = 61) displayed slower Timed Up and Go test performance (β = 1.86, t = 2.41, p = .018) compared with subjects with normal range Framingham risk scores (n = 22). When age ≥65 was added to the model in a post hoc analysis, the strength of effect seen with older age (β = 1.51, t = 2.44, p = .017) was similar to that of elevated Framingham risk scoring (β = 1.87, t = 2.51, p = .014). In a multivariable regression model studying the healthy control population, advanced age (t = 2.15, p = .037) was a significant predictor of Timed Up and Go speed though striatal [(11)C]dihydrotetrabenazine (t = -1.30, p = .19) and elevated Framingham risk scores (t = 1.32, p = .19) were not. Modifiable cardiovascular risk factors and older age may independently exacerbate balance-related disability in Parkinson disease and may exert additive or synergistic pathological effects. The pathophysiology of these impairments cannot be explained completely by nigrostriatal dopaminergic denervation or leukoaraiosis burden and may relate to systemic factors seen with accelerated aging. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Importance of Rockall Scoring System for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Long-Term Follow-Up.

PubMed

Bozkurt, Mehmet Abdussamet; Peker, Kıvanç Derya; Unsal, Mustafa Gökhan; Yırgın, Hakan; Kahraman, İzzettin; Alış, Halil

2017-06-01

The aim of the study is to examine the importance of Rockall scoring system in long-term setting to estimate re-bleeding and mortality rate due to upper gastrointestinal bleeding. A total of 321 patients who had been treated for upper gastrointestinal bleeding were recruited to the study. Patients' demographic and clinical data, the amount of blood transfusion, endoscopy results, and Rockall scores were retrieved from patients' charts. The re-bleeding, morbidity, and mortality rates were noted after 3 years of follow-up with telephone. Re-bleeding rate was statistically significantly higher in Rockall 4 group compared to Rockall 0 group. Mortality rate was also statistically significantly higher in Rockall 4 group. Rockall risk scoring system is a valuable tool to predict re-bleeding and mortality rates for patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding in long-term setting.

Different risk scores consider different types of risks: the deficiencies of the 2015 ESPEN consensus on diagnostic criteria for malnutrition.

PubMed

Xu, Jingyong; Jiang, Zhuming

2018-03-02

In 2015, an European Society for the Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition malnutrition diagnosis consensus was published to unify the definition and simplify the diagnostic procedure of malnutrition, in which 'nutritional risk', 'malnutrition risk' and 'at risk of malnutrition' were referred to several times, and 'at risk of malnutrition' was encouraged to be coded and reimbursed in the International Classification of Diseases and diagnosis-related group system systems. However, there may be some mistakes when using the concepts of different 'risk' mentioned above. In this study, we aimed to explain different 'risks' using the original concept by different screening tools to clarify the definition and provide a recommendation for nutritional screening.

Psoriasis and cardiovascular risk. Assessment by different cardiovascular risk scores.

PubMed

Fernández-Torres, R; Pita-Fernández, S; Fonseca, E

2013-12-01

Psoriasis is an inflammatory disease associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, very few studies determine cardiovascular risk by means of Framingham risk score or other indices more appropriate for countries with lower prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. To determine multiple cardiovascular risk scores in psoriasis patients, the relation between cardiovascular risk and psoriasis features and to compare our results with those in the literature. We assessed demographic data, smoking status, psoriasis features, blood pressure and analytical data. Cardiovascular risk was determined by means of Framingham, SCORE, DORICA and REGICOR scores. A total of 395 patients (59.7% men and 40.3% women) aged 18-86 years were included. The proportion of patients at intermediate and high risk of suffering a major cardiovascular event in the next 10 years was 30.5% and 11.4%, respectively, based on Framingham risk score; 26.9% and 2.2% according to DORICA and 6.8% and 0% using REGICOR score. According to the SCORE index, 22.1% of patients had a high risk of death due to a cardiovascular event over the next 10 years. Cardiovascular risk was not related to psoriasis characteristics, except for the Framingham index, with higher risk in patients with more severe psoriasis (P = 0.032). A considerable proportion of patients had intermediate or high cardiovascular risk, without relevant relationship with psoriasis characteristics and treatment schedules. Therefore, systematic evaluation of cardiovascular risk scores in all psoriasis patients could be useful to identify those with increased cardiovascular risk, subsidiary of lifestyle changes or therapeutic interventions. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology © 2012 European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.

Review article: scoring systems for assessing prognosis in critically ill adult cirrhotics.

PubMed

Cholongitas, E; Senzolo, M; Patch, D; Shaw, S; Hui, C; Burroughs, A K

2006-08-01

Cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) still have poor outcomes. Some current ICU prognostic models [Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), Organ System Failure (OSF) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA)] were used to stratify cirrhotics into risk categories, but few cirrhotics were included in the original model development. Liver-specific scores [Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)] could be useful in this setting. To evaluate whether ICU prognostic models perform better compared with liver-disease specific ones in cirrhotics admitted to ICU. We performed a structured literature review identifying clinical studies focusing on prognosis and risk factors for mortality in adult cirrhotics admitted to ICU. We found 21 studies (five solely dealing with gastrointestinal bleeding) published during the last 20 years (54-420 patients in each). APACHE II and III, SOFA and OSF had better discrimination for correctly predicting death compared with the CTP score. The MELD score was evaluated only in one study and had good predictive accuracy [receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve: 0.81). Organ dysfunction models (OSF, SOFA) were superior compared with APACHE II and III (ROC curve: range 0.83-0.94 vs. 0.66-0.88 respectively). Cardiovascular, liver and renal system dysfunction were more frequently independently associated with mortality. General-ICU models had better performance in cirrhotic populations compared with CTP score; OSF and SOFA had the best predictive ability. Further prospective and validation studies are needed.

Validation of MASCC Score for Risk Stratification in Patients of Hematological Disorders with Febrile Neutropenia.

PubMed

Taj, M; Nadeem, M; Maqsood, S; Shah, T; Farzana, T; Shamsi, T S

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association of MASCC score (Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer Score) in patients with febrile neutropenia (as resultant treatment of hematological disorders) for risk assessment of morbidity and mortality. Patients presenting with Febrile Neutropenia from November 2011 till December 2013 were enrolled in the study. Initially all patients were hospitalized and their MASCC score was calculated, however those with high risk stayed in hospital till full ANC recovery while low risk group was discharged earlier and keenly followed as out-patient while being on prophylactic oral antibiotics. The MASCC risk-index score was calculated and patients with risk score >21 were regarded as low-risk while <21 were labeled as high-risk. On the basis of 226 febrile neutropenia patient 132(58.4 %) were categorized as low risk while 94(41.5 %) as high risk patients according to MASCC risk index score. In low risk group 123(93 %) had uncomplicated infection while 9(7 %) had complicated infections. There was no mortality documented in low risk group while eight patients died in high risk group. In this study we correctly predicted outcome of 123(93 %) low risk group patients. The study had positive predictive value of 93 % with both sensitivity and specificity of 65 and 75 % respectively. The MASCC risk score is a valuable tool in determining the outcome in patients with febrile neutropenia.

Validation of the pooled cohort risk score in an Asian population - a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chia, Yook Chin; Lim, Hooi Min; Ching, Siew Mooi

2014-11-20

The Pooled Cohort Risk Equation was introduced by the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) 2013 in their Blood Cholesterol Guideline to estimate the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. However, absence of Asian ethnicity in the contemporary cohorts and limited studies to examine the use of the risk score limit the applicability of the equation in an Asian population. This study examines the validity of the pooled cohort risk score in a primary care setting and compares the cardiovascular risk using both the pooled cohort risk score and the Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk score. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study of randomly selected patients aged 40-79 years. Baseline demographic data, co-morbidities and cardiovascular (CV) risk parameters were captured from patient records in 1998. Pooled cohort risk score and Framingham General CVD risk score for each patient were computed. All ASCVD events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease (CHD) death, fatal and nonfatal stroke) occurring from 1998-2007 were recorded. A total of 922 patients were studied. In 1998, mean age was 57.5 ± 8.8 years with 66.7% female. There were 47% diabetic patients and 59.9% patients receiving anti-hypertensive treatment. More than 98% of patients with pooled cohort risk score ≥7.5% had FRS >10%. A total of 45 CVD events occurred, 22 (7.2%) in males and 23 (3.7%) in females. The median pooled cohort risk score for the population was 10.1 (IQR 4.7-20.6) while the actual ASCVD events that occurred was 4.9% (45/922). Our study showed moderate discrimination with AUC of 0.63. There was good calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2 = 12.6, P = 0.12. The pooled cohort risk score appears to overestimate CV risk but this apparent over-prediction could be a result of treatment. In the absence of a validated score in an untreated population, the pooled cohort risk score appears to be appropriate for use in a primary care setting.

The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score to predict 1-year mortality in hospitalized patients with advanced decompensated heart failure.

PubMed

Scrutinio, Domenico; Ammirati, Enrico; Guida, Pietro; Passantino, Andrea; Raimondo, Rosa; Guida, Valentina; Sarzi Braga, Simona; Canova, Paolo; Mastropasqua, Filippo; Frigerio, Maria; Lagioia, Rocco; Oliva, Fabrizio

2014-04-01

The acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (ADHF/NT-proBNP) score is a validated risk scoring system that predicts mortality in hospitalized heart failure patients with a wide range of left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). We sought to assess discrimination and calibration of the score when applied to patients with advanced decompensated heart failure (AHF). We studied 445 patients hospitalized for AHF, defined by the presence of severe symptoms of worsening HF at admission, severely depressed LVEF, and the need for intravenous diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. The primary outcome was cumulative (in-hospital and post-discharge) mortality and post-discharge 1-year mortality. Separate analyses were performed for patients aged ≤ 70 years. A Seattle Heart Failure Score (SHFS) was calculated for each patient discharged alive. During follow-up, 144 patients (32.4%) died, and 69 (15.5%) underwent heart transplantation (HT) or ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation. After accounting for the competing events (VAD/HT), the ADHF/NT-proBNP score's C-statistic for cumulative mortality was 0.738 in the overall cohort and 0.771 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. The C-statistic for post-discharge mortality was 0.741 and 0.751, respectively. Adding prior (≤6 months) hospitalizations for HF to the score increased the C-statistic for post-discharge mortality to 0.759 in the overall cohort and to 0.774 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. Predicted and observed mortality rates by quartiles of score were highly correlated. The SHFS demonstrated adequate discrimination but underestimated the risk. The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk calculator is available at http://www.fsm.it/fsm/file/NTproBNPscore.zip. Our data suggest that the ADHF/NT-proBNP score may efficiently predict mortality in patients hospitalized with AHF. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

18F Fluorocholine Dynamic Time-of-Flight PET/MR Imaging in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Intermediate- to High-Risk Prostate Cancer: Initial Clinical-Pathologic Comparisons.

PubMed

Choi, Joon Young; Yang, Jaewon; Noworolski, Susan M; Behr, Spencer; Chang, Albert J; Simko, Jeffry P; Nguyen, Hao G; Carroll, Peter R; Kurhanewicz, John; Seo, Youngho

2017-02-01

Purpose To investigate the initial clinical value of fluorine 18 ( 18 F) fluorocholine (FCH) dynamic positron emission tomography (PET)/magnetic resonance (MR) imaging by comparing its parameters with clinical-pathologic findings in patients with newly diagnosed intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) who plan to undergo radical prostatectomy. Materials and Methods The institutional review board approved the study protocol, and informed written consent was obtained from all subjects for this HIPAA-compliant study. Twelve men (mean age ± standard deviation, 61.7 years ± 8.4; range, 46-74 years) with untreated intermediate- to high-risk PCa characterized according to Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) underwent preoperative FCH dynamic PET/MR imaging followed by radical prostatectomy between April and November 2015. PET/MR imaging parameters including average and maximum K1 (delivery rate constant) and standardized uptake values (SUVs) and Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) version 2 scores were measured and compared with clinical-pathologic characteristics. For statistical analysis, the Spearman rank correlation and Mann-Whitney U tests were performed. Results Of the PET parameters, maximum SUV of primary tumors showed significant correlations with several clinical-pathologic parameters including serum prostate-specific antigen level (ρ = 0.71, P = .01), pathologic stage (ρ = 0.59, P = .043), and postsurgical CAPRA score (ρ = 0.72, P = .008). The overall PI-RADS score showed significant correlations with pathologic tumor volume (ρ = 0.81, P < .001), percentage of tumor cells with Gleason scores greater than 3 (ρ = 0.59, P = .02), and postsurgical CAPRA score (ρ = 0.58, P = .046). The high-risk postsurgical CAPRA score patient group had a significantly higher maximum SUV than did the intermediate-risk group. Combined PET and MR imaging showed improved sensitivity (88%) for prediction of pathologic extraprostatic extension compared with that with MR imaging (50%) and PET (75%) performed separately. Conclusion Maximum SUVs and PI-RADS scores from FCH PET/MR imaging show good correlation with clinical-pathologic characteristics, such as postsurgical CAPRA score, which are related to prognosis in patients with newly diagnosed intermediate- to high-risk PCa. © RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

STONE score versus Guy's Stone Score - prospective comparative evaluation for success rate and complications in percutaneous nephrolithotomy

PubMed Central

Kumar, Ujwal; Tomar, Vinay; Yadav, Sher Singh; Priyadarshi, Shivam; Vyas, Nachiket; Agarwal, Neeraj; Dayal, Ram

2018-01-01

Purpose: The aim of the current study was to compare Guy's score and STONE score in predicting the success and complication rate of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). Materials and Methods: A total of 445 patients were included in the study between July 2015 and December 2016. The patients were given STONE score and Guy's Stone Score (GSS) grades based on CT scan done preoperatively and intra- and post-operative complications were graded using the modified Clavien grading system. The PCNL were done by a standard technique in prone positions. Results: The success rate in our study was 86.29% and both the GSS and STONE score were significantly associated with a success rate of the procedure. Both the scoring systems correlated with operative time and postoperative hospital stay. Of the total cases, 102 patients (22.92%) experienced complications. A correlation between STONE score stratified into low, moderate, and high nephrolithometry score risk groups (low scores 4–5, moderate scores 6–8, high scores 9–13), and complication was also found (P = 0.04) but not between the GSS and complication rate (P = 0.054). Conclusion: Both GSS and STONE scores are equally effective in predicting success rate of the procedure. PMID:29416280

Risk stratification and prognostic performance of the predisposition, infection, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) scoring system in septic patients in the emergency department: a cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Xia; Li, Chun-Sheng

2014-04-16

The predisposition, infection, response and organ dysfunction (PIRO) staging system was designed as a stratification tool to deal with the inherent heterogeneity of septic patients. The present study was conducted to assess the performance of PIRO in predicting multiple organ dysfunction (MOD), intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 28-day mortality in septic patients in the emergency department (ED), and to compare this scoring system with the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) scores. Consecutive septic patients (n = 680) admitted to the ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were enrolled. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores were calculated for each patient on ED arrival. Organ function was reassessed within 3 days of enrollment. All patients were followed up for 28 days. Outcome criteria were the development of MOD within 3 days, ICU admission or death within 28 days after enrollment. The predictive ability of the four components of PIRO was analyzed separately. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic and risk stratification value of the scoring systems. Organ dysfunction independently predicted ICU admission, MOD, and 28-day mortality, with areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.888, 0.851, and 0.816, respectively. The predictive value of predisposition, infection, and response was weaker than that of organ dysfunction. A negative correlation was found between the response component and MOD, as well as mortality. PIRO, MEDS, and APACHE II scores significantly differed between patients who did and did not meet the outcome criteria (P < 0.001). PIRO and APACHE II independently predicted ICU admission and MOD, but MEDS did not. All three systems were independent predictors of 28-day mortality with similar AUC values. The AUC of PIRO was 0.889 for ICU admission, 0.817 for MOD, and 0.744 for 28-day mortality. The AUCs of PIRO were significantly greater than those of APACHE II and MEDS (P < 0.05) in predicting ICU admission and MOD. The study indicates that PIRO is helpful for risk stratification and prognostic determinations in septic patients in the ED.

A cross-sectional multicentre study of cardiac risk score use in the management of unstable angina and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Engel, Josien; van der Wulp, Ineke; de Bruijne, Martine; Wagner, Cordula

2015-11-24

Quantitative risk assessment in unstable angina (UA) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), by using cardiac risk scores, is recommended in international guidelines. However, a gap between recommended care and actual practice exists, as these instruments seem underused in practice. The present study aimed to determine the extent of cardiac risk score use and to study factors associated with lower or higher cardiac risk score use. 13 hospitals throughout the Netherlands. A retrospective chart review of 1788 charts of patients with UA and NSTEMI, discharged in 2012. The extent of cardiac risk score use reflected in a documented risk score outcome in the patient's chart. Factors associated with cardiac risk score use determined by generalised linear mixed models. In 57% (n=1019) of the charts, physicians documented the use of a cardiac risk score. Substantial variation between hospitals was observed (16.7-87%), although this variation could not be explained by the presence of on-site revascularisation facilities or a hospitals' teaching status. Obese patients (OR=1.49; CI 95%1.03 to 2.15) and former smokers (OR=1.56; CI 95%1.15 to 2.11) were more likely to have a cardiac risk score documented. Risk scores were less likely to be used among patients diagnosed with UA (OR=0.60; CI 95% 0.46 to 0.77), in-hospital resuscitation (OR=0.23; CI 95% 0.09 to 0.64), in-hospital heart failure (OR=0.46; CI 95% 0.27 to 0.76) or tachycardia (OR=0.45; CI 95% 0.26 to 0.75). Despite recommendations in cardiac guidelines, the use of cardiac risk scores has not been fully implemented in Dutch practice. A substantial number of patients did not have a cardiac risk score documented in their chart. Strategies to improve cardiac risk score use should pay special attention to patient groups in which risk scores were less often documented, as these patients may currently be undertreated. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

External validation of the TIMI risk score for secondary cardiovascular events among patients with recent myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Williams, Brent A; Chagin, Kevin M; Bash, Lori D; Boden, William E; Duval, Sue; Fowkes, F Gerry R; Mahaffey, Kenneth W; Patel, Mehul D; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Peterson, Eric D; Kattan, Michael W; Bhatt, Deepak L; Bonaca, Marc P

2018-05-01

Risk stratification of patients with recent myocardial infarction (MI) for subsequent cardiovascular (CV) events helps identify patients most likely to benefit from secondary prevention therapies. This study externally validated a new risk score (TRS2˚P) for secondary events derived from the TRA2°P-TIMI 50 trial among post-MI patients from two large health care systems. This retrospective cohort study included 9618 patients treated for acute MI at either the Cleveland Clinic (CC) or Geisinger Health System (GHS) between 2008 and 2013. Patients with a clinic visit within 2-52 weeks of MI were included and followed for CV death, repeat MI, and ischemic stroke through electronic medical records (EMR). The TRS2˚P is based on nine factors determined through EMR documentation. Discrimination and calibration of the TRS2˚P were quantified in both patient populations. MI patients at CC and GHS were older, had more comorbidities, received fewer medications, and had higher 3-year event rates compared to subjects in the TRA2°P trial: 31% (CC), 33% (GHS), and 10% (TRA2°P-TIMI 50). The proposed risk score had similar discrimination across the three cohorts with c-statistics of 0.66 (CC), 0.66 (GHS), and 0.67 (TRA2°P-TIMI 50). A strong graded relationship between the risk score and event rates was observed in all cohorts, though 3-year event rates were consistently higher within TRS2°P strata in the CC and GHS cohorts relative to TRA2˚P-TIMI 50. The TRS2˚P demonstrated consistent risk discrimination across trial and non-trial patients with recent MI, but event rates were consistently higher in the non-trial cohorts. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

French Multicenter Study Evaluating the Risk of Lymph Node Metastases in Early-Stage Endometrial Cancer: Contribution of a Risk Scoring System.

PubMed

Bendifallah, Sofiane; Canlorbe, Geoffroy; Arsène, Emmanuelle; Collinet, Pierre; Huguet, Florence; Coutant, Charles; Hudry, Delphine; Graesslin, Olivier; Raimond, Emilie; Touboul, Cyril; Daraï, Emile; Ballester, Marcos

2015-08-01

This study was designed to develop a risk scoring system (RSS) for predicting lymph node (LN) metastases in patients with early-stage endometrial cancer (EC). Data of 457 patients with early-stage EC who received primary surgical treatment between January 2001 and December 2012 were abstracted from a prospective, multicentre database (training set). A risk model based on factors impacting LN metastases was developed. To assess the discrimination of the RSS, both internal by the bootstrap approach and external validation (validation set) were adopted. Overall the LN metastasis rate was 11.8 % (54/457). LN metastases were associated with five variables: age ≥60 years, histological grade 3 and/or type 2, primary tumor diameter ≥1.5 cm, depth of myometrial invasion ≥50 %, and the positive lymphovascular space involvement status. These variables were included in the RSS and assigned scores ranging from 0 to 9. The discrimination of the RSS was 0.81 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.78-0.84] in the training set. The area under the curve of the receiver-operating characteristics for predicting LN metastases after internal and external validation was 0.80 (95 % CI 0.77-0.83) and 0.85 (95 % CI 0.81-0.89), respectively. A total score of 6 points corresponded to the optimal threshold of the RSS with a rate of LN metastases of 7.5 % (29/385) and 34.7 % (25/72) for low-risk (≤6 points) and high-risk patients (>6 points), respectively. At this threshold, the diagnostic accuracy was 83 %. This RSS could be useful in clinical practice to determine which patients with early-stage EC should benefit from secondary surgical staging including complete lymphadenectomy.

An Imaging Biomarker for Assessing Hepatic Function in Patients with Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis.

PubMed

Schulze, Jennifer; Lenzen, Henrike; Hinrichs, Jan B; Ringe, Burckhardt; Manns, Michael P; Wacker, Frank; Ringe, Kristina I

2018-05-15

We aimed to evaluate the potential of hepatobiliary phase magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as parameter for assessment of hepatocellular function in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). We collected data from 111 patients (83 male, 28 female; median, 44 years old), from March 2012 through March 2016, with a confirmed diagnosis of PSC who underwent MRI evaluation before and after injection (hepatobiliary phase) of a hepatocyte-specific contrast agent (gadoxetate disodium). Signal intensities were measured in each liver segment. Mean relative enhancement values were calculated and correlated with findings from liver functions tests, prognostic scoring systems (model for end-stage liver disease [MELD] score; Mayo risk score; Amsterdam-Oxford-PSC score), abnormalities detected by endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (using the Amsterdam cholangiographic classification system), and clinical endpoints (liver transplantation, cholangiocarcinoma, liver-related death). Our primary aim was to associate relative enhancement values with liver function and patient outcomes. Most patients had moderate-stage disease and had intermediate levels of risk (median MELD score, 8 and median Mayo score, 0.27). Clinical endpoints were reached by 21 patients (6 developed cholangiocarcinoma, 8 underwent liver transplantation, and 7 patients died). The highest levels of correlations were observed for relative enhancement 20 min after contrast injection and level of alkaline phosphatase (r= -0.636), bilirubin (r= -0.646), albumin (r= 0.538); as well as international normalized ratio (r=0.456); MELD score (r= -0.587); Mayo risk score (r= -0.535), and Amsterdam-Oxford model score (r= -0.595) (P<.0001). Relative enhancement correlated with all clinical endpoints (all P<.05). A cutoff relative enhancement value of 0.65 identified patients with a clinical endpoint with 73.9% sensitivity 92.9% specificity (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.901; likelihood ratio, 10.34; P<.0001). In an analysis of 111 patients with PSC, we found MRI-measured relative enhancement, using a hepatocyte-specific contrast agent, to identify patients with clinical outcomes with 73.9% sensitivity 92.9% specificity. Long-term, multicenter studies are needed to further evaluate this marker of PSC progression. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Study on the overall implementation status of the National Demonstration Areas for Comprehensive Prevention and Control of Non-communicable Diseases].

PubMed

Li, J J; Li, J L; Zhang, J; Jin, R R; Ma, S; Deng, G J; Su, X W; Bian, F; Qu, Y M; Hu, L L; Jiang, Y

2018-04-10

Objective: To understand the current overall status of implementation on the National Demonstration Areas of Comprehensive Prevention and Control of Non-communicable Diseases. Methods: According to the scheme design of the questionnaires, all the National Demonstration Areas were involved in this study. For each National Demonstration Areas, eight departments were selected to complete a total of 12 questionnaires. Results: Scores related to the implementation of the National Demonstration Areas accounted for 71.8% of the total 170 points. Based on the scores gathered from this study, the 23-items-index-system that represented the status of project implementation was classified into seven categories. Categories with higher percentile scores would include: monitoring (88.0%), safeguard measures (75.0%), health education and health promotion (75.0%). Categories with lower percentile scores would include: the national health lifestyle actions (67.7%), community diagnosis (66.7%), discovery and intervention of high-risk groups (64.7%), and patient management (60.9%). There were significant differences noticed among the eastern, central and western areas on items as safeguard measures, health education/promotion, discovery and intervention of high-risk groups. In all, the implementation programs in the eastern Demonstration Areas seemed better than in the central or western regions. As for the 23 items, five of the highest scores appeared on policy support, mortality surveillance, tumor registration, reporting system on cardiovascular/cerebrovascular events, and on tobacco control, respectively. However, the lowest five scores fell on healthy diet, patient self-management program, oral hygiene, setting up the demonstration units and promotion on basic public health services, respectively. The overall scores in the eastern region was higher than that in the central or the western regions. The scores in the central and western regions showed basically the same. Conclusions: The overall status of implementation on the National Demonstration Areas was satisfactory. Future attention should be focusing on patient management as well as discovery and intervention of high-risk groups, which also presented the lowest scores, in this survey.

A diagnostic scoring system for myxedema coma.

PubMed

Popoveniuc, Geanina; Chandra, Tanu; Sud, Anchal; Sharma, Meeta; Blackman, Marc R; Burman, Kenneth D; Mete, Mihriye; Desale, Sameer; Wartofsky, Leonard

2014-08-01

To develop diagnostic criteria for myxedema coma (MC), a decompensated state of extreme hypothyroidism with a high mortality rate if untreated, in order to facilitate its early recognition and treatment. The frequencies of characteristics associated with MC were assessed retrospectively in patients from our institutions in order to derive a semiquantitative diagnostic point scale that was further applied on selected patients whose data were retrieved from the literature. Logistic regression analysis was used to test the predictive power of the score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to test the discriminative power of the score. Of the 21 patients examined, 7 were reclassified as not having MC (non-MC), and they were used as controls. The scoring system included a composite of alterations of thermoregulatory, central nervous, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, and metabolic systems, and presence or absence of a precipitating event. All 14 of our MC patients had a score of ≥60, whereas 6 of 7 non-MC patients had scores of 25 to 50. A total of 16 of 22 MC patients whose data were retrieved from the literature had a score ≥60, and 6 of 22 of these patients scored between 45 and 55. The odds ratio per each score unit increase as a continuum was 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.16; P = .019); a score of 60 identified coma, with an odds ratio of 1.22. The area under the ROC curve was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.65 to 1.00), and the score of 60 had 100% sensitivity and 85.71% specificity. A score ≥60 in the proposed scoring system is potentially diagnostic for MC, whereas scores between 45 and 59 could classify patients at risk for MC.

[Usefulness of scoring risk for adverse outcomes in older patients with the Identification of Seniors at Risk scale and the Triage Risk Screening Tool: a meta-analysis].

PubMed

Rivero-Santana, Amado; Del Pino-Sedeño, Tasmania; Ramallo-Fariña, Yolanda; Vergara, Itziar; Serrano-Aguilar, Pedro

2017-02-01

A considerable proportion of the geriatric population experiences unfavorable outcomes of hospital emergency department care. An assessment of risk for adverse outcomes would facilitate making changes in clinical management by adjusting available resources to needs according to an individual patient's risk. Risk assessment tools are available, but their prognostic precision varies. This systematic review sought to quantify the prognostic precision of 2 geriatric screening and risk assessment tools commonly used in emergency settings for patients at high risk of adverse outcomes (revisits, functional deterioration, readmissions, or death): the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) scale and the Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST). We searched PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and SCOPUS, with no date limits, to find relevant studies. Quality was assessed with the QUADAS-2 checklist (for quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies). We pooled data for prognostic yield reported for the ISAR and TRST scores for each short- and medium-term outcome using bivariate random-effects modeling. The sensitivity of the ISAR scoring system as a whole ranged between 67% and 99%; specificity fell between 21% and 41%. TRST sensitivity ranged between 52% and 75% and specificity between 39% and 51%.We conclude that the tools currently used to assess risk of adverse outcomes in patients of advanced age attended in hospital emergency departments do not have adequate prognostic precision to be clinically useful.

Development and validation of a Hospital Frailty Risk Score focusing on older people in acute care settings using electronic hospital records: an observational study.

PubMed

Gilbert, Thomas; Neuburger, Jenny; Kraindler, Joshua; Keeble, Eilis; Smith, Paul; Ariti, Cono; Arora, Sandeepa; Street, Andrew; Parker, Stuart; Roberts, Helen C; Bardsley, Martin; Conroy, Simon

2018-05-05

Older people are increasing users of health care globally. We aimed to establish whether older people with characteristics of frailty and who are at risk of adverse health-care outcomes could be identified using routinely collected data. A three-step approach was used to develop and validate a Hospital Frailty Risk Score from International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) diagnostic codes. First, we carried out a cluster analysis to identify a group of older people (≥75 years) admitted to hospital who had high resource use and diagnoses associated with frailty. Second, we created a Hospital Frailty Risk Score based on ICD-10 codes that characterised this group. Third, in separate cohorts, we tested how well the score predicted adverse outcomes and whether it identified similar groups as other frailty tools. In the development cohort (n=22 139), older people with frailty diagnoses formed a distinct group and had higher non-elective hospital use (33·6 bed-days over 2 years compared with 23·0 bed-days for the group with the next highest number of bed-days). In the national validation cohort (n=1 013 590), compared with the 429 762 (42·4%) patients with the lowest risk scores, the 202 718 (20·0%) patients with the highest Hospital Frailty Risk Scores had increased odds of 30-day mortality (odds ratio 1·71, 95% CI 1·68-1·75), long hospital stay (6·03, 5·92-6·10), and 30-day readmission (1·48, 1·46-1·50). The c statistics (ie, model discrimination) between individuals for these three outcomes were 0·60, 0·68, and 0·56, respectively. The Hospital Frailty Risk Score showed fair overlap with dichotomised Fried and Rockwood scales (kappa scores 0·22, 95% CI 0·15-0·30 and 0·30, 0·22-0·38, respectively) and moderate agreement with the Rockwood Frailty Index (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0·41, 95% CI 0·38-0·47). The Hospital Frailty Risk Score provides hospitals and health systems with a low-cost, systematic way to screen for frailty and identify a group of patients who are at greater risk of adverse outcomes and for whom a frailty-attuned approach might be useful. National Institute for Health Research. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score: Results from the Filipino-American Women Cardiovascular Study.

PubMed

Ancheta, Irma B; Battie, Cynthia A; Volgman, Annabelle S; Ancheta, Christine V; Palaniappan, Latha

2017-02-01

Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality of Filipino-Americans, conventional CVD risk calculators may not be accurate for this population. CVD risk scores of a group of Filipino-American women (FAW) were measured using the major risk calculators. Secondly, the sensitivity of the various calculators to obesity was determined. This is a cross-sectional descriptive study that enrolled 40-65-year-old FAW (n = 236), during a community-based health screening study. Ten-year CVD risk was calculated using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Reynolds Risk Score (RRS), and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) calculators. The 30-year risk FRS and the lifetime ASCVD calculators were also determined. Levels of predicted CVD risk varied as a function of the calculator. The 10-year ASCVD calculator classified 12 % of participants with ≥10 % risk, but the 10-year FRS and RRS calculators classified all participants with ≤10 % risk. The 30-year "Hard" Lipid and BMI FRS calculators classified 32 and 43 % of participants with high (≥20 %) risk, respectively, while 95 % of participants were classified with ≥20 % risk by the lifetime ASCVD calculator. The percent of participants with elevated CVD risk increased as a function of waist circumference for most risk score calculators. Differences in risk score as a function of the risk score calculator indicate the need for outcome studies in this population. Increased waist circumference was associated with increased CVD risk scores underscoring the need for obesity control as a primary prevention of CVD in FAW.

Use of a prenatal risk screen to predict maternal traumatic pregnancy-associated death: program and policy implications.

PubMed

Hardt, Nancy S; Eliazar, Jessica; Burt, Martha; Das, Rajeeb; Winter, William P; Saliba, Heidi; Roth, Jeffrey

2013-01-01

Motor vehicle crashes, homicide, suicide, and drug abuse are among the leading causes of pregnancy-associated deaths. To prevent such deaths, identifying women for intervention is required. The universally offered Florida Healthy Start Prenatal Risk Screen was evaluated to identify women at increased risk for traumatic pregnancy-associated death. Florida's Enhanced Maternal Mortality Reporting Database for 1999 through 2005 was linked with Florida's Healthy Start Prenatal Risk Screen to identify traumatic pregnancy-associated death as the outcome. Distribution of Healthy Start risk scores among women who died were compared with the screened population. Traumatic death estimates per 100,000 births were drawn for each risk score, along with estimates of the relative risk (RR) of traumatic death for each score. The RR of women with scores greater than or equal to 4 were compared with the risk of women scoring 0 to 3. Almost 20% of the 620,959 women who did not die of traumatic death had a risk score of 0, compared with only 3% of the 144 women who did die of traumatic death. As risk scores increased, the chance of traumatic deaths sharply increased. A woman with a score of 4 had 11.78 times (confidence interval [CI], 4.63-29.69) the risk of traumatic death compared with a woman with a risk score of 0. The implementation of prenatal risk screening to identify women at increased risk for traumatic pregnancy-associated death would help to ensure that policies to reduce infant risk factors also address maternal risk factors. Copyright © 2013 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular risk estimation by professionally active cardiovascular nurses: results from the Basel 2005 Nurses Cohort.

PubMed

Scholte op Reimer, Wilma J M; Moons, Philip; De Geest, Sabina; Fridlund, Bengt; Heikkilä, Johanna; Jaarsma, Tiny; Lenzen, Mattie; Martensson, Jan; Norekvål, Tone M; Smith, Karen; Stewart, Simon; Strömberg, Anna; Thompson, David R

2006-12-01

Nurses play a key role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and one would, therefore, expect them to have a heightened awareness of the need for systematic screening and their own CVD risk profile. The aim of this study was to examine personal awareness of CVD risk among a cohort of cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference. Of the 340 delegates attending the 5th annual Spring Meeting on Cardiovascular Nursing (Basel, Switzerland, 2005), 287 (83%) completed a self-report questionnaire to assess their own risk factors for CVD. Delegates were also asked to give an estimation of their absolute total risk of experiencing a fatal CVD event in the next 10 years. Level of agreement between self-reported CVD risk estimation and their actual risk according to the SCORE risk assessment system was compared by calculating weighted Kappa (kappa(w)). Overall, 109 responders (38%) self-reported having either pre-existing CVD (only 2%), one or more markedly raised CVD risk factors, a high total risk of fatal CVD (> or =5% in 10 years) or a strong family history of CVD. About half of this cohort (53%) did not know their own total cholesterol level. Less than half (45%) reported having a 10-year risk of fatal CVD of <1%, while 13% reported having a risk > or =5%. Based on the SCORE risk function, the estimated 10-year risk of a fatal CVD event was <1% for 96% of responders: only 2% had a > or =5% risk of such an event. Overall, less than half (46%) of this cohort's self-reported CVD risk corresponded with that calculated using the SCORE risk function (kappa(w)=0.27). Most cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference in 2005 poorly understood their own CVD risk profile, and the agreement between their self-reported 10-year risk of a fatal CVD and their CVD risk using SCORE was only fair. Given the specialist nature of this conference, our findings clearly demonstrate a need to improve overall nursing awareness of the role and importance of systematic CVD risk assessment.

Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict Outcomes of Patients With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis Receiving Ursodeoxycholic Acid Therapy.

PubMed

Lammers, Willem J; Hirschfield, Gideon M; Corpechot, Christophe; Nevens, Frederik; Lindor, Keith D; Janssen, Harry L A; Floreani, Annarosa; Ponsioen, Cyriel Y; Mayo, Marlyn J; Invernizzi, Pietro; Battezzati, Pier M; Parés, Albert; Burroughs, Andrew K; Mason, Andrew L; Kowdley, Kris V; Kumagi, Teru; Harms, Maren H; Trivedi, Palak J; Poupon, Raoul; Cheung, Angela; Lleo, Ana; Caballeria, Llorenç; Hansen, Bettina E; van Buuren, Henk R

2015-12-01

Approaches to risk stratification for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) are limited, single-center based, and often dichotomous. We aimed to develop and validate a better model for determining prognoses of patients with PBC. We performed an international, multicenter meta-analysis of 4119 patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid at liver centers in 8 European and North American countries. Patients were randomly assigned to derivation (n = 2488 [60%]) and validation cohorts (n = 1631 [40%]). A risk score (GLOBE score) to predict transplantation-free survival was developed and validated with univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses using clinical and biochemical variables obtained after 1 year of ursodeoxycholic acid therapy. Risk score outcomes were compared with the survival of age-, sex-, and calendar time-matched members of the general population. The prognostic ability of the GLOBE score was evaluated alongside those of the Barcelona, Paris-1, Rotterdam, Toronto, and Paris-2 criteria. Age (hazard ratio = 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.06; P < .0001); levels of bilirubin (hazard ratio = 2.56; 95% CI: 2.22-2.95; P < .0001), albumin (hazard ratio = 0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.24; P < .0001), and alkaline phosphatase (hazard ratio = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.18-1.67; P = .0002); and platelet count (hazard ratio/10 units decrease = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96-0.99; P < .0001) were all independently associated with death or liver transplantation (C-statistic derivation, 0.81; 95% CI: 0.79-0.83, and validation cohort, 0.82; 95% CI: 0.79-0.84). Patients with risk scores >0.30 had significantly shorter times of transplant-free survival than matched healthy individuals (P < .0001). The GLOBE score identified patients who would survive for 5 years and 10 years (responders) with positive predictive values of 98% and 88%, respectively. Up to 22% and 21% of events and nonevents, respectively, 10 years after initiation of treatment were correctly reclassified in comparison with earlier proposed criteria. In subgroups of patients aged <45, 45-52, 52-58, 58-66, and ≥66 years, age-specific GLOBE-score thresholds beyond which survival significantly deviated from matched healthy individuals were -0.52, 0.01, 0.60, 1.01 and 1.69, respectively. Transplant-free survival could still be accurately calculated by the GLOBE score with laboratory values collected at 2-5 years after treatment. We developed and validated scoring system (the GLOBE score) to predict transplant-free survival of ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC. This score might be used to select strategies for treatment and care. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Oncological Outcomes After Radical Prostatectomy for High-Risk Prostate Cancer Based on New Gleason Grouping System: A Validation Study From University of Southern California With 3,755 Cases.

PubMed

Djaladat, Hooman; Amini, Erfan; Xu, Weichen; Cai, Jie; Daneshmand, Siamak; Lieskovsky, Gary

2017-05-01

To assess the prognostic value of new Gleason grade grouping system in high-risk prostate cancer patients, we compared oncological outcomes after radical prostatectomy for patients with Gleason score 8 versus 9-10. Between 1987 and 2008, 3,755 men underwent radical prostatectomy with curative intent at University of Southern California. Patients who had Gleason score 8-10 at final histopathological evaluation (pT2-4N0) were included in this study. Eligible patients were divided into two groups; 226 with Gleason score 8 and 132 with Gleason score 9-10. Various patient and disease characteristics as well as oncological outcomes (biochemical recurrence, clinical recurrence, and overall survival) were compared between the groups. Impact of Gleason score on outcomes was controlled for preoperative prostate specific antigen, pathological stage, use of adjuvant radiotherapy, and neoadjuvant/adjuvant hormone therapy in multivariable analyses. A total of 358 patients (mean age: 65 years) were included in the analysis. Mean age and median duration of follow-up (9.6 years) were comparable between the study groups. Gleason 9-10 prostate cancer was associated with worse biochemical (HR 1.6; 95%CI [1.1-2.3]) and clinical recurrence free survival (HR = 1.9; 95%CI [1.1-3.3]); however, overall survival did not differ significantly between the groups. In addition, more patients with Gleason score 9-10 received adjuvant hormone therapy in the course of disease. Long-term follow-up after radical prostatectomy revealed significant differences in disease-specific outcomes between patients with Gleason score 8 versus 9-10. This sub-classification of high-risk patients might be helpful for patient counseling and determining therapeutic strategies. Prostate 77:743-748, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Factors associated with multidisciplinary case conference outcomes in children admitted to a regional hospital in Hong Kong with suspected child abuse: a retrospective case series with internal comparison.

PubMed

Lo, W C; Fung, G Pg; Cheung, P Ch

2017-10-01

In all cases of suspected child abuse, accurate risk assessment is vital to guide further management. This study examined the relationship between risk factors in a risk assessment matrix and child abuse case conference outcomes. Records of all children hospitalised at United Christian Hospital in Hong Kong for suspected child abuse from January 2012 to December 2014 were reviewed. Outcomes of the hospital abuse work-up as concluded in the Multi-Disciplinary Case Conference were categorised as 'established', 'high risk', or 'not established'. All cases of 'established' and 'high risk' were included in the positive case conference outcome group and all cases of 'not established' formed the comparison group. On the other hand, using the Risk Assessment Matrix developed by the California State University, Fresno in 1990, each case was allotted a matrix score of low, intermediate, or high risk in each of 15 matrix domains, and an aggregate matrix score was derived. The effect of individual matrix domain on case conference outcome was analysed. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to examine the relationship between case conference outcome and aggregate matrix score. In this study, 265 children suspected of being abused were included, with 198 in the positive case conference outcome group and 67 in the comparison group. Three matrix domains (severity and frequency of abuse, location of injuries, and strength of family support systems) were significantly associated with case conference outcome. An aggregate cut-off score of 23 yielded a sensitivity of 91.4% and specificity of 38.2% in relation to outcome of abuse categorisation. Risk assessment should be performed when handling suspected child abuse cases. A high aggregate score should arouse suspicion in all disciplines managing child abuse cases.

Scoring Idiopathic Granulomatous Mastitis: An Effective System for Predicting Recurrence?

PubMed Central

Gürel, Bora; Güler, Sertaç Ata; Baran, Mehmet Ali; Erşan, Büşra; Duman, Seda; Utkan, Zafer

2018-01-01

Objective Idiopathic granulomatous mastitis is a breast disease without a definitive etiology. There are no definitive classifications, scoring systems or certitudes. The aim of this study is to define the factors related to the recurrence and design a scoring system. Material and Methods Patients who were admitted to the general surgery department with symptoms of granulomatous mastitis were evaluated by ultrasonography and underwent antibiotic therapy. Granulomatous mastitis is diagnosed by core biopsy and treated with steroid therapy. Patients without improvement underwent surgery and were included in the study. In total, 53 patients were included in the study. There were 8 recurrent cases. Factors related with recurrences were defined. Results Number of births over 2, duration of lactation more than 18 months, body mass index greater than 31, having fistula in physical examination, abscess collection in ultrasonographic examination, and luminal inflammation score over 2 were scored as 1. Severity score in recurrent cases were 5.1±0.6 whereas 1.9±1.0 in nonrecurrent cases. Conclusion Granulomatous mastitis score is a tool targeted at predicting the risk of recurrences. The patients with these factors are more prone for recurrences. PMID:29774320

Does present use of cardiovascular medication reflect elevated cardiovascular risk scores estimated ten years ago? A population based longitudinal observational study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background It is desirable that those at highest risk of cardiovascular disease should have priority for preventive measures, eg. treatment with prescription drugs to modify their risk. We wanted to investigate to what extent present use of cardiovascular medication (CVM) correlates with cardiovascular risk estimated by three different risk scores (Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK) ten years ago. Methods Prospective logitudinal observational study of 20 252 participants in The Hordaland Health Study born 1950-57, not using CVM in 1997-99. Prescription data obtained from The Norwegian Prescription Database in 2008. Results 26% of men and 22% of women aged 51-58 years had started to use some CVM during the previous decade. As a group, persons using CVM scored significantly higher on the risk algorithms Framingham, SCORE and NORRISK compared to those not treated. 16-20% of men and 20-22% of women with risk scores below the high-risk thresholds for the three risk scores were treated with CVM, while 60-65% of men and 25-45% of women with scores above the high-risk thresholds received no treatment. Among women using CVM, only 2.2% (NORRISK), 4.4% (SCORE) and 14.5% (Framingham) had risk scores above the high-risk values. Low education, poor self-reported general health, muscular pains, mental distress (in females only) and a family history of premature cardiovascular disease correlated with use of CVM. Elevated blood pressure was the single factor most strongly predictive of CVM treatment. Conclusion Prescription of CVM to middle-aged individuals by large seems to occur independently of estimated total cardiovascular risk, and this applies especially to females. PMID:21366925

Comparison of traditional diabetes risk scores and HbA1c to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in a population based cohort study.

PubMed

Krabbe, Christine Emma Maria; Schipf, Sabine; Ittermann, Till; Dörr, Marcus; Nauck, Matthias; Chenot, Jean-François; Markus, Marcello Ricardo Paulista; Völzke, Henry

2017-11-01

Compare performances of diabetes risk scores and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to estimate the risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Northeast Germany. We studied 2916 subjects (20 to 81years) from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) in a 5-year follow-up period. Diabetes risk scores included the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) base model, the Danish diabetes risk score and the Data from the Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance syndrome (D.E.S.I.R) clinical risk score. We assessed the performance of each of the diabetes risk scores and the HbA1c for 5-year risk of T2DM by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. In SHIP, the incidence of T2DM was 5.4% (n=157) in the 5-year follow-up period. Diabetes risk scores and HbA1c achieved AUCs ranging from 0.76 for the D.E.S.I.R. clinical risk score to 0.82 for the KORA base model. For diabetes risk scores, the discriminative ability was lower for the age group 55 to 74years. For HbA1c, the discriminative ability also decreased for the group 55 to 74years while it was stable in the age group 30 to 64years old. All diabetes risk scores and the HbA1c showed a good prediction for the risk of T2DM in SHIP. Which model or biomarker should be used is driven by its context of use, e.g. the practicability, implementation of interventions and availability of measurement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficacy of risk stratification in tailoring immunosuppression regimens in kidney transplant patients at the national kidney and transplant institute.

PubMed

Ledesma-Gumba, M A; Danguilan, R A; Casasola, C C; Ona, E T

2008-09-01

To evaluate the efficacy of tailored immunosuppressive regimens prescribed according to a risk stratification scoring system based on the number of HLA mismatches, donor source, panel-reactive antibodies (PRA), and repeat transplant. Patients in a retrospective cohort of 329 kidney transplantations performed from October 2004 to December 2005 were assigned scores of 0, 2, 4, or 6 with higher scores for > or =1 HLA mismatches, PRA > 10%, repeat transplant, and unrelated or deceased donor. Added scores of < or =4 comprised the low-risk group who received a Calcineurin inhibitor (CNI)-based regimen without induction, whereas a score > or = 6 denoted high risk including a CNI-based regimen with an interleukin-2 receptor antibody. The efficacy analysis compared the incidences of biopsy-proven acute rejection episodes (BPAR) at 1 year. Only 227 (69%) of 329 patients had a complete data set and 84 were excluded because they did not follow the prescribed protocol, yielding 113 low- and 30 high-risk patients in the final population. Low-risk patients had a mean PRA of 5.4%, living related donors in 68%, and primary transplants. High-risk patients had a mean PRA of 18.8% (range = 10%-97%), living nonrelated donors in 84%, four deceased donors, and four repeat transplants. The overall 1-year incidence of BPAR was 5.7%. No significant difference (P = .081) was observed in 1-year BPAR between the low- (4.5%) and high-risk (9.8%) groups. Likewise, no significant difference in the 1-year mean serum creatinine was observed according to the CNI. The mean creatinine was 1.12 for cyclosporine and 1.38 for tacrolimus treatment (P = .06) in the low-risk group and 1.08 for cyclosporine and 1.2 for tacrolimus (P = .61) in the high-risk cohort. There was no significant difference in acute rejection rates between the immunologically low- or high-risk patients using tailored immunosuppression, which was effective to minimize its occurrence with good renal function at 1 year.

Automated Quantification of the Landing Error Scoring System With a Markerless Motion-Capture System.

PubMed

Mauntel, Timothy C; Padua, Darin A; Stanley, Laura E; Frank, Barnett S; DiStefano, Lindsay J; Peck, Karen Y; Cameron, Kenneth L; Marshall, Stephen W

2017-11-01

  The Landing Error Scoring System (LESS) can be used to identify individuals with an elevated risk of lower extremity injury. The limitation of the LESS is that raters identify movement errors from video replay, which is time-consuming and, therefore, may limit its use by clinicians. A markerless motion-capture system may be capable of automating LESS scoring, thereby removing this obstacle.   To determine the reliability of an automated markerless motion-capture system for scoring the LESS.   Cross-sectional study.   United States Military Academy.   A total of 57 healthy, physically active individuals (47 men, 10 women; age = 18.6 ± 0.6 years, height = 174.5 ± 6.7 cm, mass = 75.9 ± 9.2 kg).   Participants completed 3 jump-landing trials that were recorded by standard video cameras and a depth camera. Their movement quality was evaluated by expert LESS raters (standard video recording) using the LESS rubric and by software that automates LESS scoring (depth-camera data). We recorded an error for a LESS item if it was present on at least 2 of 3 jump-landing trials. We calculated κ statistics, prevalence- and bias-adjusted κ (PABAK) statistics, and percentage agreement for each LESS item. Interrater reliability was evaluated between the 2 expert rater scores and between a consensus expert score and the markerless motion-capture system score.   We observed reliability between the 2 expert LESS raters (average κ = 0.45 ± 0.35, average PABAK = 0.67 ± 0.34; percentage agreement = 0.83 ± 0.17). The markerless motion-capture system had similar reliability with consensus expert scores (average κ = 0.48 ± 0.40, average PABAK = 0.71 ± 0.27; percentage agreement = 0.85 ± 0.14). However, reliability was poor for 5 LESS items in both LESS score comparisons.   A markerless motion-capture system had the same level of reliability as expert LESS raters, suggesting that an automated system can accurately assess movement. Therefore, clinicians can use the markerless motion-capture system to reliably score the LESS without being limited by the time requirements of manual LESS scoring.

Meta-analysis of CHADS2 versus CHA2DS2-VASc for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation patients independent of anticoagulation.

PubMed

Zhu, Wen-Gen; Xiong, Qin-Mei; Hong, Kui

2015-02-01

Two validated scoring systems for predicting embolic risk, CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc, contribute to optimizing antithrombotic prescription practices in patients who have atrial fibrillation. However, data about anticoagulated patients are sparse. We compared CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc, in terms of their predictive risk evaluation, in patients with atrial fibrillation who were and were not taking anticoagulants. We systematically searched the Cochrane Library, PubMed, and Embase databases for studies of the comparative diagnostic performance of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc. We identified 12 cohort studies for meta-analysis. With regard to the occurrence of cardiovascular events individually, patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥2 have a greater risk of stroke (risk ratio [RR]=5.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.85-6.88; P <0.00001) and thromboembolism (RR=5.96; 95% CI, 5.50-6.45; P <0.00001) (P diff=0.34) than do patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores <2, independent of anticoagulation therapy (RR=5.76; 95% CI, 5.23-6.35; P <0.00001 in anticoagulated patients; and RR=6.12; 95% CI, 5.40-6.93; P <0.00001 in patients not taking anticoagulants; P diff=0.45). The pooled RR estimates indicate an approximate 6-fold increase in the risk of endpoint events in patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥2 (RR=5.90; 95% CI, 5.46-6.37; P <0.0001). These results clearly indicate the discriminative capacity of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for stroke, thromboembolic events, or both, independent of optimal anticoagulation. The CHA2DS2-VASc score enables the identification of patients who are at genuinely high risk and can direct the selection of appropriate therapeutic approaches.

Enumerating bone marrow blasts from nonerythroid cellularity improves outcome prediction in myelodysplastic syndromes and permits a better definition of the intermediate risk category of the Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R).

PubMed

Calvo, Xavier; Arenillas, Leonor; Luño, Elisa; Senent, Leonor; Arnan, Montserrat; Ramos, Fernando; Pedro, Carme; Tormo, Mar; Montoro, Julia; Díez-Campelo, María; Blanco, María Laura; Arrizabalaga, Beatriz; Xicoy, Blanca; Bonanad, Santiago; Jerez, Andrés; Nomdedeu, Meritxell; Ferrer, Ana; Sanz, Guillermo F; Florensa, Lourdes

2017-07-01

The Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) has been recognized as the score with the best outcome prediction capability in MDS, but this brought new concerns about the accurate prognostication of patients classified into the intermediate risk category. The correct enumeration of blasts is essential in prognostication of MDS. Recent data evidenced that considering blasts from nonerythroid cellularity (NECs) improves outcome prediction in the context of IPSS and WHO classification. We assessed the percentage of blasts from total nucleated cells (TNCs) and NECs in 3924 MDS patients from the GESMD, 498 of whom were MDS with erythroid predominance (MDS-E). We assessed if calculating IPSS-R by enumerating blasts from NECs improves prognostication of MDS. Twenty-four percent of patients classified into the intermediate category were reclassified into higher-risk categories and showed shorter overall survival (OS) and time to AML evolution than those who remained into the intermediate one. Likewise, a better distribution of patients was observed, since lower-risk patients showed longer survivals than previously whereas higher-risk ones maintained the outcome expected in this poor prognostic group (median OS < 20 months). Furthermore, our approach was particularly useful for detecting patients at risk of dying with AML. Regarding MDS-E, 51% patients classified into the intermediate category were reclassified into higher-risk ones and showed shorter OS and time to AML. In this subgroup of MDS, IPSS-R was capable of splitting our series in five groups with significant differences in OS only when blasts were assessed from NECs. In conclusion, our easy-applicable approach improves prognostic assessment of MDS patients. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Validation of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome in Japan: results from a prospective multicenter registry.

PubMed

Kawabata, Hiroshi; Tohyama, Kaoru; Matsuda, Akira; Araseki, Kayano; Hata, Tomoko; Suzuki, Takahiro; Kayano, Hidekazu; Shimbo, Kei; Zaike, Yuji; Usuki, Kensuke; Chiba, Shigeru; Ishikawa, Takayuki; Arima, Nobuyoshi; Nogawa, Masaharu; Ohta, Akiko; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Mitani, Kinuko; Ozawa, Keiya; Arai, Shunya; Kurokawa, Mineo; Takaori-Kondo, Akifumi

2017-09-01

The Japanese National Research Group on Idiopathic Bone Marrow Failure Syndromes has been conducting prospective registration, central review, and follow-up study for patients with aplastic anemia and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) since 2006. Using this database, we retrospectively analyzed the prognosis of patients with MDS. As of May 2016, 351 cases were registered in this database, 186 of which were eligible for the present study. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that overall survival (OS) curves of the five risk categories stipulated by the revised international prognostic scoring system (IPSS-R) were reasonably separated. 2-year OS rates for the very low-, low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk categories were 95, 89, 79, 35, and 12%, respectively. In the same categories, incidence of leukemic transformation at 2 years was 0, 10, 8, 56, and 40%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that male sex, low platelet counts, increased blast percentage (>2%), and high-risk karyotype abnormalities were independent risk factors for poor OS. Based on these data, we classified Japanese MDS patients who were classified as intermediate-risk in IPSS-R, into the lower risk MDS category, highlighting the need for careful assessment of treatments within low- and high-risk treatment protocols.

Risk factor analysis for the recurrence of resected solitary fibrous tumours of the pleura: a 33-year experience and proposal for a scoring system.

PubMed

Tapias, Luis F; Mino-Kenudson, Mari; Lee, Hang; Wright, Cameron; Gaissert, Henning A; Wain, John C; Mathisen, Douglas J; Lanuti, Michael

2013-07-01

Surveillance after resection of solitary fibrous tumours of the pleura (SFTP) remains undefined. This study reviews our experience with surgical treatment of SFTP to determine the specific risk factors to predict recurrence. A retrospective review of 59 patients surgically treated for SFTP during the years 1977-2010 was conducted. Clinico-pathological factors for recurrence were analysed by Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard methods. The mean age was 57 ± 14 years. There were 32 (54%) men. Among 32 (54%) symptomatic patients, chest pain (22%), cough (19%) and dyspnoea (17%) were most frequent. The mean tumour size was 7.3 ± 6.7 cm, and 14 patients had SFTPs larger than 10 cm. An SFTP was pedunculated in 38 (67%) cases and had a visceral origin in 40 (68%). Paraneoplastic syndromes were observed in 3 (5%) patients. On histopathologic analysis, 4 (7%) presented ≥ 4 mitosis/10 high-power fields (HPFs), 8 (15%) atypia, 14 (24%) hypercellularity and 6 (10%) necrosis. After a mean follow-up of 8.8 ± 7.0 years, we observed 8 (14%) recurrences; median time to recurrence was 6 years (range 2-16 years). Two (3%) patients received adjuvant therapy. We constructed a predictive score for recurrence by assigning one point to each of the six variables: parietal (vs visceral) pleural origin, sessile (vs pedunculated) morphology, size >10 cm (vs <10 cm), the presence of hypercellularity, necrosis and mitotic activity ≥ 4/HPF (vs <4). A score of ≥ 3 best predicted recurrence (sensitivity: 100%, specificity: 92%, area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.966, P < 0.0001). With a score of ≥ 3, recurrence-free survival was 80%, 69, 23 and 23% at 3, 5, 10 and 15 years, whereas a score of <3 was 100% up to 15 years. Our scoring system was superior in predicting malignant behaviour and recurrence compared with England's criteria or de Perrot staging. The proposed scoring system is simple, easily obtained from existing pathological description and reliably predicts recurrence in this patient population harbouring SFTP. The SFTP score may stratify patient risk and guide postoperative surveillance. We recommend validation in additional clinical series.

A Study of Correlation of Neck Circumference with Framingham Risk Score as a Predictor of Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Koppad, Anand K; Kaulgud, Ram S; Arun, B S

2017-09-01

It has been observed that metabolic syndrome is risk factor for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) and exerts its effects through fat deposition and vascular aging. CAD has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death. In earlier studies, the metabolic risk has been estimated by Framingham risk score. Recent studies have shown that Neck Circumference (NC) has a good correlation with other traditional anthropometric measurements and can be used as marker of obesity. It also correlates with Framingham risk score, which is slightly more sophisticated measure of CAD risk. To assess the risk of CAD in a subject based on NC and to correlate the NC to Framingham risk score. The present cross-sectional study, done at Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences, Hubli, Karnataka, India, includes 100 subjects. The study duration was of one year from 1 st January 2015 to 31 st December 2015. Anthropometric indices Body Mass Index (BMI) and NC were correlated with 10 year CAD risk as calculated by Framingham risk score. The correlation between BMI, NC, vascular age and Framingham risk score was calculated using Karl Pearson's correlation method. NC has a strong correlation with 10 year CAD risk (p≤0.001). NC was significantly greater in males as compared to females (p≤0.001). Males had greater risk of cardiovascular disease as reflected by higher 10 year Framingham risk score (p≤0.0035). NC gives simple and easy prediction of CAD risk and is more reliable than traditional risk markers like BMI. NC correlates positively with 10 year Framingham risk score.

Research on Operation Assessment Method for Energy Meter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiangqun; Huang, Rui; Shen, Liman; chen, Hao; Xiong, Dezhi; Xiao, Xiangqi; Liu, Mouhai; Xu, Renheng

2018-03-01

The existing electric energy meter rotation maintenance strategy regularly checks the electric energy meter and evaluates the state. It only considers the influence of time factors, neglects the influence of other factors, leads to the inaccuracy of the evaluation, and causes the waste of resources. In order to evaluate the running state of the electric energy meter in time, a method of the operation evaluation of the electric energy meter is proposed. The method is based on extracting the existing data acquisition system, marketing business system and metrology production scheduling platform that affect the state of energy meters, and classified into error stability, operational reliability, potential risks and other factors according to the influencing factors, based on the above basic test score, inspecting score, monitoring score, score of family defect detection. Then, according to the evaluation model according to the scoring, we evaluate electric energy meter operating state, and finally put forward the corresponding maintenance strategy of rotation.

A Method of Evaluating Operation of Electric Energy Meter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiangqun; Li, Tianyang; Cao, Fei; Chu, Pengfei; Zhao, Xinwang; Huang, Rui; Liu, Liping; Zhang, Chenglin

2018-05-01

The existing electric energy meter rotation maintenance strategy regularly checks the electric energy meter and evaluates the state. It only considers the influence of time factors, neglects the influence of other factors, leads to the inaccuracy of the evaluation, and causes the waste of resources. In order to evaluate the running state of the electric energy meter in time, a method of the operation evaluation of the electric energy meter is proposed. The method is based on extracting the existing data acquisition system, marketing business system and metrology production scheduling platform that affect the state of energy meters, and classified into error stability, operational reliability, potential risks and other factors according to the influencing factors, based on the above basic test score, inspecting score, monitoring score, score of family defect detection. Then, according to the evaluation model according to the scoring, we evaluate electric energy meter operating state, and finally put forward the corresponding maintenance strategy of rotation.

Utility of different cardiovascular disease prediction models in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Purcarea, A; Sovaila, S; Udrea, G; Rezus, E; Gheorghe, A; Tiu, C; Stoica, V

2014-01-01

Rheumatoid arthritis comes with a 30% higher probability for cardiovascular disease than the general population. Current guidelines advocate for early and aggressive primary prevention and treatment of risk factors in high-risk populations but this excess risk is under-addressed in RA in real life. This is mainly due to difficulties met in the correct risk evaluation. This study aims to underline the differences in results of the main cardiovascular risk screening models in the real life rheumatoid arthritis population. In a cross-sectional study, patients addressed to a tertiary care center in Romania for an biannual follow-up of rheumatoid arthritis and the ones who were considered free of any cardiovascular disease were assessed for subclinical atherosclerosis. Clinical, biological and carotidal ultrasound evaluations were performed. A number of cardiovascular disease prediction scores were performed and differences between tests were noted in regard to subclinical atherosclerosis as defined by the existence of carotid intima media thickness over 0,9 mm or carotid plaque. In a population of 29 Romanian rheumatoid arthritis patients free of cardiovascular disease, the performance of Framingham Risk Score, HeartSCORE, ARIC cardiovascular disease prediction score, Reynolds Risk Score, PROCAM risk score and Qrisk2 score were compared. All the scores under-diagnosed subclinical atherosclerosis. With an AUROC of 0,792, the SCORE model was the only one that could partially stratify patients in low, intermediate and high-risk categories. The use of the EULAR recommended modifier did not help to reclassify patients. The only score that showed a statistically significant prediction capacity for subclinical atherosclerosis in a Romanian rheumatoid arthritis population was SCORE. The additional calibration or the use of imaging techniques in CVD risk prediction for the intermediate risk category might be warranted.

Utility of different cardiovascular disease prediction models in rheumatoid arthritis

PubMed Central

Purcarea, A; Sovaila, S; Udrea, G; Rezus, E; Gheorghe, A; Tiu, C; Stoica, V

2014-01-01

Background. Rheumatoid arthritis comes with a 30% higher probability for cardiovascular disease than the general population. Current guidelines advocate for early and aggressive primary prevention and treatment of risk factors in high-risk populations but this excess risk is under-addressed in RA in real life. This is mainly due to difficulties met in the correct risk evaluation. This study aims to underline the differences in results of the main cardiovascular risk screening models in the real life rheumatoid arthritis population. Methods. In a cross-sectional study, patients addressed to a tertiary care center in Romania for an biannual follow-up of rheumatoid arthritis and the ones who were considered free of any cardiovascular disease were assessed for subclinical atherosclerosis. Clinical, biological and carotidal ultrasound evaluations were performed. A number of cardiovascular disease prediction scores were performed and differences between tests were noted in regard to subclinical atherosclerosis as defined by the existence of carotid intima media thickness over 0,9 mm or carotid plaque. Results. In a population of 29 Romanian rheumatoid arthritis patients free of cardiovascular disease, the performance of Framingham Risk Score, HeartSCORE, ARIC cardiovascular disease prediction score, Reynolds Risk Score, PROCAM risk score and Qrisk2 score were compared. All the scores under-diagnosed subclinical atherosclerosis. With an AUROC of 0,792, the SCORE model was the only one that could partially stratify patients in low, intermediate and high-risk categories. The use of the EULAR recommended modifier did not help to reclassify patients. Conclusion. The only score that showed a statistically significant prediction capacity for subclinical atherosclerosis in a Romanian rheumatoid arthritis population was SCORE. The additional calibration or the use of imaging techniques in CVD risk prediction for the intermediate risk category might be warranted. PMID:25713628

Perspective: NutriGrade: A Scoring System to Assess and Judge the Meta-Evidence of Randomized Controlled Trials and Cohort Studies in Nutrition Research.

PubMed

Schwingshackl, Lukas; Knüppel, Sven; Schwedhelm, Carolina; Hoffmann, Georg; Missbach, Benjamin; Stelmach-Mardas, Marta; Dietrich, Stefan; Eichelmann, Fabian; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Iqbal, Khalid; Aleksandrova, Krasimira; Lorkowski, Stefan; Leitzmann, Michael F; Kroke, Anja; Boeing, Heiner

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to develop a scoring system (NutriGrade) to evaluate the quality of evidence of randomized controlled trial (RCT) and cohort study meta-analyses in nutrition research, building upon previous tools and expert recommendations. NutriGrade aims to assess the meta-evidence of an association or effect between different nutrition factors and outcomes, taking into account nutrition research-specific requirements not considered by other tools. In a pretest study, 6 randomly selected meta-analyses investigating diet-disease relations were evaluated with NutriGrade by 5 independent raters. After revision, NutriGrade was applied by the same raters to 30 randomly selected meta-analyses in the same thematic area. The reliability of ratings of NutriGrade items was calculated with the use of a multirater κ, and reliability of the total (summed scores) was calculated with the use of intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). The following categories for meta-evidence evaluation were established: high (8-10), moderate (6-7.99), low (4-5.99), and very low (0-3.99). The NutriGrade scoring system (maximum of 10 points) comprises the following items: 1) risk of bias, study quality, and study limitations, 2) precision, 3) heterogeneity, 4) directness, 5) publication bias, 6) funding bias, 7) study design, 8) effect size, and 9) dose-response. The NutriGrade score varied between 2.9 (very low meta-evidence) and 8.8 (high meta-evidence) for meta-analyses of RCTs, and it ranged between 3.1 and 8.8 for meta-analyses of cohort studies. The κ value of the ratings for each scoring item varied from 0.32 (95% CI: 0.22, 0.42) for risk of bias for cohort studies and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.99) for study design, with a mean κ of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.53, 0.79). The ICC of the total score was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.90). The NutriGrade scoring system showed good agreement and reliability. The initial findings regarding the performance of this newly established scoring system need further evaluation in independent analyses. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Perspective: NutriGrade: A Scoring System to Assess and Judge the Meta-Evidence of Randomized Controlled Trials and Cohort Studies in Nutrition Research123

PubMed Central

Knüppel, Sven; Schwedhelm, Carolina; Hoffmann, Georg; Missbach, Benjamin; Stelmach-Mardas, Marta; Dietrich, Stefan; Eichelmann, Fabian; Kontopanteils, Evangelos; Iqbal, Khalid; Aleksandrova, Krasimira; Lorkowski, Stefan; Leitzmann, Michael F; Kroke, Anja; Boeing, Heiner

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a scoring system (NutriGrade) to evaluate the quality of evidence of randomized controlled trial (RCT) and cohort study meta-analyses in nutrition research, building upon previous tools and expert recommendations. NutriGrade aims to assess the meta-evidence of an association or effect between different nutrition factors and outcomes, taking into account nutrition research–specific requirements not considered by other tools. In a pretest study, 6 randomly selected meta-analyses investigating diet–disease relations were evaluated with NutriGrade by 5 independent raters. After revision, NutriGrade was applied by the same raters to 30 randomly selected meta-analyses in the same thematic area. The reliability of ratings of NutriGrade items was calculated with the use of a multirater κ, and reliability of the total (summed scores) was calculated with the use of intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). The following categories for meta-evidence evaluation were established: high (8–10), moderate (6–7.99), low (4–5.99), and very low (0–3.99). The NutriGrade scoring system (maximum of 10 points) comprises the following items: 1) risk of bias, study quality, and study limitations, 2) precision, 3) heterogeneity, 4) directness, 5) publication bias, 6) funding bias, 7) study design, 8) effect size, and 9) dose-response. The NutriGrade score varied between 2.9 (very low meta-evidence) and 8.8 (high meta-evidence) for meta-analyses of RCTs, and it ranged between 3.1 and 8.8 for meta-analyses of cohort studies. The κ value of the ratings for each scoring item varied from 0.32 (95% CI: 0.22, 0.42) for risk of bias for cohort studies and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.99) for study design, with a mean κ of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.53, 0.79). The ICC of the total score was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.90). The NutriGrade scoring system showed good agreement and reliability. The initial findings regarding the performance of this newly established scoring system need further evaluation in independent analyses. PMID:28140319

Incident Risk Factors and Major Bleeding in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation Treated with Oral Anticoagulants: A Comparison of Baseline, Follow-up and Delta HAS-BLED Scores with an Approach Focused on Modifiable Bleeding Risk Factors.

PubMed

Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

2018-04-01

 When assessing bleeding risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), risk stratification is often based on the baseline risks. We aimed to investigate changes in bleeding risk factors and alterations in the HAS-BLED score in AF patients. We hypothesized that a follow-up HAS-BLED score and the 'delta HAS-BLED score' (reflecting the change in score between baseline and follow-up) would be more predictive of major bleeding, when compared with baseline HAS-BLED score.  A total of 19,566 AF patients receiving warfarin and baseline HAS-BLED score ≤2 were studied. After a follow-up of 93,783 person-years, 3,032 major bleeds were observed. The accuracies of baseline, follow-up, and delta HAS-BLED scores as well as cumulative numbers of baseline modifiable bleeding risk factors, in predicting subsequent major bleeding, were analysed and compared. The mean baseline HAS-BLED score was 1.43 which increased to 2.45 with a mean 'delta HAS-BLED score' of 1.03. The HAS-BLED score remained unchanged in 38.2% of patients. Of those patients experiencing major bleeding, 76.6% had a 'delta HAS-BLED' score ≥1, compared with only 59.0% in patients without major bleeding ( p  < 0.001). For prediction of major bleeding, AUC was significantly higher for the follow-up HAS-BLED (0.63) or delta HAS-BLED (0.62) scores, compared with baseline HAS-BLED score (0.54). The number of baseline modifiable risk factors was non-significantly predictive of major bleeding (AUC = 0.49).  In this 'real-world' nationwide AF cohort, follow-up HAS-BLED or 'delta HAS-BLED score' was more predictive of major bleeding compared with baseline HAS-BLED or the simple determination of 'modifiable bleeding risk factors'. Bleeding risk in AF is a dynamic process and use of the HAS-BLED score should be to 'flag up' patients potentially at risk for more regular review and follow-up, and to address the modifiable bleeding risk factors during follow-up visits. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome Without Diabetes or Cardiovascular Disease: Usefulness of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score.

PubMed

Masson, Walter; Epstein, Teo; Huerín, Melina; Lobo, Lorenzo Martín; Molinero, Graciela; Angel, Adriana; Masson, Gerardo; Millán, Diana; De Francesca, Salvador; Vitagliano, Laura; Cafferata, Alberto; Losada, Pablo

2017-09-01

The estimated cardiovascular risk determined by the different risk scores, could be heterogeneous in patients with metabolic syndrome without diabetes or vascular disease. This risk stratification could be improved by detecting subclinical carotid atheromatosis. To estimate the cardiovascular risk measured by different scores in patients with metabolic syndrome and analyze its association with the presence of carotid plaque. Non-diabetic patients with metabolic syndrome (Adult Treatment Panel III definition) without cardiovascular disease were enrolled. The Framingham score, the Reynolds score, the new score proposed by the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator were calculated. Prevalence of carotid plaque was determined by ultrasound examination. A Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was performed. A total of 238 patients were enrolled. Most patients were stratified as "low risk" by Framingham score (64%) and Reynolds score (70.1%). Using the 2013 ACC/AHA score, 45.3% of the population had a risk ≥7.5%. A significant correlation was found between classic scores but the agreement (concordance) was moderate. The correlation between classical scores and the Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator was poor. Overall, the prevalence of carotid plaque was 28.2%. The continuous metabolic syndrome score used in our study showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque (area under the curve 0.752). In this population, the calculated cardiovascular risk was heterogenic. The prevalence of carotid plaque was high. The Metabolic Syndrome Severity Calculator showed a good predictive power to detect carotid plaque.

Does the Aristotle Score predict outcome in congenital heart surgery?

PubMed

Kang, Nicholas; Tsang, Victor T; Elliott, Martin J; de Leval, Marc R; Cole, Timothy J

2006-06-01

The Aristotle Score has been proposed as a measure of 'complexity' in congenital heart surgery, and a tool for comparing performance amongst different centres. To date, however, it remains unvalidated. We examined whether the Basic Aristotle Score was a useful predictor of mortality following open-heart surgery, and compared it to the Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) system. We also examined the ability of the Aristotle Score to measure performance. The Basic Aristotle Score and RACHS-1 risk categories were assigned retrospectively to 1085 operations involving cardiopulmonary bypass in children less than 18 years of age. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the significance of the Aristotle Score and RACHS-1 category as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Operative performance was calculated using the Aristotle equation: performance = complexity x survival. Multiple logistic regression identified RACHS-1 category to be a powerful predictor of mortality (Wald 17.7, p < 0.0001), whereas Aristotle Score was only weakly associated with mortality (Wald 4.8, p = 0.03). Age at operation and bypass time were also highly significant predictors of postoperative death (Wald 13.7 and 33.8, respectively, p < 0.0001 for both). Operative performance was measured at 7.52 units. The Basic Aristotle Score was only weakly associated with postoperative mortality in this series. Operative performance appeared to be inflated by the fact that the overall complexity of cases was relatively high in this series. An alternative equation (performance = complexity/mortality) is proposed as a fairer and more logical method of risk-adjustment.

Lowering risk score profile during PCI in multiple vessel disease is associated with low adverse events: The ERACI risk score.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Alfredo E; Fernandez-Pereira, Carlos; Mieres, Juan; Pavlovsky, Hernan; Del Pozo, Juan; Rodriguez-Granillo, Alfredo M; Antoniucci, David

2018-02-13

In recent years angiographic risk scores have been introduced in clinical practice to stratify different levels of risk after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). The SYNTAX score included all intermediate lesions in vessels ≥1.5 mm, consequently, multiple stent implantation was required. Four years ago, we built a new angiographic score in order to guide PCI strategy avoiding stent deployment both in intermediate stenosis as in small vessels, therefore these were not scored (ERACI risk score). The purpose of this mini review is to validate the strategy of PCI guided by this scoring, taking into account long term follow up outcomes of two observational and prospective registries where this policy was used. With this new risk score we have modified risk profile of our patient's candidates for PCI or coronary artery bypass surgery lowering the risk and <20% of them are now included anatomically as high risk for PCI. The simple exclusion of small vessels and intermediate stenosis from the revascularization approach resulted in clinical outcome comparable with the one of fractional flow reserve guided revascularization. Low events rate at late follow up observed in both studies was also in agreement with guided PCI by functional lesion assessment observed by Syntax II registry, where investigators found lower events rate in spite of a few number of stents implanted per patient. use of ERACI risk scores may significantly reclassify patients into a lower risk category and be associated with low adverse events rate. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Does Field Reliability for Static-99 Scores Decrease as Scores Increase?

PubMed Central

Rice, Amanda K.; Boccaccini, Marcus T.; Harris, Paige B.; Hawes, Samuel W.

2015-01-01

This study examined the field reliability of Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) scores among 21,983 sex offenders and focused on whether rater agreement decreased as scores increased. As expected, agreement was lowest for high-scoring offenders. Initial and most recent Static-99 scores were identical for only about 40% of offenders who had been assigned a score of 6 during their initial evaluations, but for more than 60% of offenders who had been assigned a score of 2 or lower. In addition, the size of the difference between scores increased as scores increased, with pairs of scores differing by 2 or more points for about 30% of offenders scoring in the high-risk range. Because evaluators and systems use high Static-99 scores to identify sexual offenders who may require intensive supervision or even postrelease civil commitment, it is important to recognize that there may be more measurement error for high scores than low scores and to consider adopting procedures for minimizing or accounting for measurement error. PMID:24932647

Hyperspectral imaging for melanoma screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Justin; Krueger, James; Gareau, Daniel

2014-03-01

The 5-year survival rate for patients diagnosed with Melanoma, a deadly form of skin cancer, in its latest stages is about 15%, compared to over 90% for early detection and treatment. We present an imaging system and algorithm that can be used to automatically generate a melanoma risk score to aid clinicians in the early identification of this form of skin cancer. Our system images the patient's skin at a series of different wavelengths and then analyzes several key dermoscopic features to generate this risk score. We have found that shorter wavelengths of light are sensitive to information in the superficial areas of the skin while longer wavelengths can be used to gather information at greater depths. This accompanying diagnostic computer algorithm has demonstrated much higher sensitivity and specificity than the currently commercialized system in preliminary trials and has the potential to improve the early detection of melanoma.

Identification and Progression of Heart Disease Risk Factors in Diabetic Patients from Longitudinal Electronic Health Records.

PubMed

Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Dai, Hong-Jie; Hsu, Chien-Yeh

2015-01-01

Heart disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Therefore, assessing the risk of its occurrence is a crucial step in predicting serious cardiac events. Identifying heart disease risk factors and tracking their progression is a preliminary step in heart disease risk assessment. A large number of studies have reported the use of risk factor data collected prospectively. Electronic health record systems are a great resource of the required risk factor data. Unfortunately, most of the valuable information on risk factor data is buried in the form of unstructured clinical notes in electronic health records. In this study, we present an information extraction system to extract related information on heart disease risk factors from unstructured clinical notes using a hybrid approach. The hybrid approach employs both machine learning and rule-based clinical text mining techniques. The developed system achieved an overall microaveraged F-score of 0.8302.

Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

2013-04-01

The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data, helping non-expert audiences better understand and evaluate risks facing water users. This presentation will discuss the methodology used to combine the indicator values into aggregated risk scores and lessons learned from working with diverse audiences in academia, development institutions, and the public and private sectors.

Genetic markers enhance coronary risk prediction in men: the MORGAM prospective cohorts.

PubMed

Hughes, Maria F; Saarela, Olli; Stritzke, Jan; Kee, Frank; Silander, Kaisa; Klopp, Norman; Kontto, Jukka; Karvanen, Juha; Willenborg, Christina; Salomaa, Veikko; Virtamo, Jarmo; Amouyel, Phillippe; Arveiler, Dominique; Ferrières, Jean; Wiklund, Per-Gunner; Baumert, Jens; Thorand, Barbara; Diemert, Patrick; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Hengstenberg, Christian; Peters, Annette; Evans, Alun; Koenig, Wolfgang; Erdmann, Jeanette; Samani, Nilesh J; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Schunkert, Heribert

2012-01-01

More accurate coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction, specifically in middle-aged men, is needed to reduce the burden of disease more effectively. We hypothesised that a multilocus genetic risk score could refine CHD prediction beyond classic risk scores and obtain more precise risk estimates using a prospective cohort design. Using data from nine prospective European cohorts, including 26,221 men, we selected in a case-cohort setting 4,818 healthy men at baseline, and used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between CHD and risk scores based on genetic variants representing 13 genomic regions. Over follow-up (range: 5-18 years), 1,736 incident CHD events occurred. Genetic risk scores were validated in men with at least 10 years of follow-up (632 cases, 1361 non-cases). Genetic risk score 1 (GRS1) combined 11 SNPs and two haplotypes, with effect estimates from previous genome-wide association studies. GRS2 combined 11 SNPs plus 4 SNPs from the haplotypes with coefficients estimated from these prospective cohorts using 10-fold cross-validation. Scores were added to a model adjusted for classic risk factors comprising the Framingham risk score and 10-year risks were derived. Both scores improved net reclassification (NRI) over the Framingham score (7.5%, p = 0.017 for GRS1, 6.5%, p = 0.044 for GRS2) but GRS2 also improved discrimination (c-index improvement 1.11%, p = 0.048). Subgroup analysis on men aged 50-59 (436 cases, 603 non-cases) improved net reclassification for GRS1 (13.8%) and GRS2 (12.5%). Net reclassification improvement remained significant for both scores when family history of CHD was added to the baseline model for this male subgroup improving prediction of early onset CHD events. Genetic risk scores add precision to risk estimates for CHD and improve prediction beyond classic risk factors, particularly for middle aged men.

Cardiac risk stratification: Role of the coronary calcium score

PubMed Central

Sharma, Rakesh K; Sharma, Rajiv K; Voelker, Donald J; Singh, Vibhuti N; Pahuja, Deepak; Nash, Teresa; Reddy, Hanumanth K

2010-01-01

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an integral part of atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD is the leading cause of death in industrialized nations and there is a constant effort to develop preventative strategies. The emphasis is on risk stratification and primary risk prevention in asymptomatic patients to decrease cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The Framingham Risk Score predicts CHD events only moderately well where family history is not included as a risk factor. There has been an exploration for new tests for better risk stratification and risk factor modification. While the Framingham Risk Score, European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project, and European Prospective Cardiovascular Munster study remain excellent tools for risk factor modification, the CAC score may have additional benefit in risk assessment. There have been several studies supporting the role of CAC score for prediction of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. It has been shown to have great scope in risk stratification of asymptomatic patients in the emergency room. Additionally, it may help in assessment of progression or regression of coronary artery disease. Furthermore, the CAC score may help differentiate ischemic from nonischemic cardiomyopathy. PMID:20730016

Association of Practice-Level Social and Medical Risk With Performance in the Medicare Physician Value-Based Payment Modifier Program

PubMed Central

Epstein, Arnold M.; Orav, E. John; Filice, Clara E.; Samson, Lok Wong; Joynt Maddox, Karen E.

2017-01-01

Importance Medicare recently launched the Physician Value-Based Payment Modifier (PVBM) Program, a mandatory pay-for-performance program for physician practices. Little is known about performance by practices that serve socially or medically high-risk patients. Objective To compare performance in the PVBM Program by practice characteristics. Design, Setting, and Participants Cross-sectional observational study using PVBM Program data for payments made in 2015 based on performance of large US physician practices caring for fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in 2013. Exposures High social risk (defined as practices in the top quartile of proportion of patients dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid) and high medical risk (defined as practices in the top quartile of mean Hierarchical Condition Category risk score among fee-for-service beneficiaries). Main Outcomes and Measures Quality and cost z scores based on a composite of individual measures. Higher z scores reflect better performance on quality; lower scores, better performance on costs. Results Among 899 physician practices with 5 189 880 beneficiaries, 547 practices were categorized as low risk (neither high social nor high medical risk) (mean, 7909 beneficiaries; mean, 320 clinicians), 128 were high medical risk only (mean, 3675 beneficiaries; mean, 370 clinicians), 102 were high social risk only (mean, 1635 beneficiaries; mean, 284 clinicians), and 122 were high medical and social risk (mean, 1858 beneficiaries; mean, 269 clinicians). Practices categorized as low risk performed the best on the composite quality score (z score, 0.18 [95% CI, 0.09 to 0.28]) compared with each of the practices categorized as high risk (high medical risk only: z score, −0.55 [95% CI, −0.77 to −0.32]; high social risk only: z score, −0.86 [95% CI, −1.17 to −0.54]; and high medical and social risk: −0.78 [95% CI, −1.04 to −0.51]) (P < .001 across groups). Practices categorized as high social risk only performed the best on the composite cost score (z score, −0.52 [95% CI, −0.71 to −0.33]), low risk had the next best cost score (z score, −0.18 [95% CI, −0.25 to −0.10]), then high medical and social risk (z score, 0.40 [95% CI, 0.23 to 0.57]), and then high medical risk only (z score, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.65 to 0.99]) (P < .001 across groups). Total per capita costs were $9506 for practices categorized as low risk, $13 683 for high medical risk only, $8214 for high social risk only, and $11 692 for high medical and social risk. These patterns were associated with fewer bonuses and more penalties for high-risk practices. Conclusions and Relevance During the first year of the Medicare Physician Value-Based Payment Modifier Program, physician practices that served more socially high-risk patients had lower quality and lower costs, and practices that served more medically high-risk patients had lower quality and higher costs. PMID:28763549

[Prediction of postoperative nausea and vomiting using an artificial neural network].

PubMed

Traeger, M; Eberhart, A; Geldner, G; Morin, A M; Putzke, C; Wulf, H; Eberhart, L H J

2003-12-01

Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) are still frequent side-effects after general anaesthesia. These unpleasant symptoms for the patients can be sufficiently reduced using a multimodal antiemetic approach. However, these efforts should be restricted to risk patients for PONV. Thus, predictive models are required to identify these patients before surgery. So far all risk scores to predict PONV are based on results of logistic regression analysis. Artificial neural networks (ANN) can also be used for prediction since they can take into account complex and non-linear relationships between predictive variables and the dependent item. This study presents the development of an ANN to predict PONV and compares its performance with two established simplified risk scores (Apfel's and Koivuranta's scores). The development of the ANN was based on data from 1,764 patients undergoing elective surgical procedures under balanced anaesthesia. The ANN was trained with 1,364 datasets and a further 400 were used for supervising the learning process. One of the 49 ANNs showing the best predictive performance was compared with the established risk scores with respect to practicability, discrimination (by means of the area under a receiver operating characteristics curve) and calibration properties (by means of a weighted linear regression between the predicted and the actual incidences of PONV). The ANN tested showed a statistically significant ( p<0.0001) and clinically relevant higher discriminating power (0.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.70-0.78) than the Apfel score (0.66; 95% CI: 0.61-0.71) or Koivuranta's score (0.69; 95% CI: 0.65-0.74). Furthermore, the agreement between the actual incidences of PONV and those predicted by the ANN was also better and near to an ideal fit, represented by the equation y=1.0x+0. The equations for the calibration curves were: KNN y=1.11x+0, Apfel y=0.71x+1, Koivuranta 0.86x-5. The improved predictive accuracy achieved by the ANN is clinically relevant. However, the disadvantages of this system prevail because a computer is required for risk calculation. Thus, we still recommend the use of one of the simplified risk scores for clinical practice.

Comparison of transplant-specific prognostic scoring systems in haploidentical transplantation for myelodysplastic syndrome.

PubMed

Shin, Seung-Hwan; Jeon, Young-Woo; Yoon, Jae-Ho; Yahng, Seung-Ah; Lee, Sung-Eun; Cho, Byung-Sik; Eom, Ki-Seong; Lee, Seok; Kim, Hee-Je; Min, Chang-Ki; Cho, Seok-Goo; Kim, Dong-Wook; Lee, Jong-Wook; Min, Woo-Sung; Kim, Yoo-Jin

2018-05-14

We intended to identify the predictive abilities of recently published transplant-specific prognostic scoring systems in myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) patients receiving haploidentical transplantation. The outcomes of 73 MDS patients receiving haploidentical transplantation were analyzed, according to the MTPSS, the TRI, and the CIBMTR scoring systems. The median age of patients at transplantation was 50 (range, 19-69) years. The IPSS-R cytogenetic risks of very good/good, intermediate, and poor/very poor were respectively observed in 35 (48.0%), 25 (34.2%), and 13 (17.8%) patients, including 4 (5.5%) with a monosomal karyotype. Pre-transplant treatment failure and high (≥ 3) HCT-CI were observed in 30 (41.1%) and 35 (48.0%) patients, respectively. With survivor's median follow-up of 42.3 months, the overall survival rate at 4 years of all patients was 65.5% (95% CI, 52.4-75.9). The MTPSS (100%, 77.3%, 62.5%, and 42.0% at 4 years; P = 0.02) and the TRI (100%, 79.9%, 76.0%, and 17.1% at 4 years; P < 0.01) differentiate proportionally overall survival rates according to their 4 risk groups, whereas the CIBMTR scoring system did not (P = 0.17). Our results suggest the potential ability of the MPTSS and the TRI as prognostic tools for MDS patients receiving haploidentical transplantation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment and risk scores in the management of aortic aneurysms.

PubMed

Von Meijenfeldt, Gerdine C I; Van Der Laan, Maarten J; Zeebregts, Clark J; Balm, Ron; Verhagen, Hence J M

2016-04-01

The decision whether to operate a patient or not can be challenging for a clinician for both ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) as well as elective AAAs. Prior to surgical intervention it would be preferable that the clinician exactly knows which clinical variables lower or increase the chances of morbidity and mortality postintervention. To help in the preoperative counselling and shared decision making several clinical variables can be identified as risk factors and with these, risk models can be developed. An ideal risk score for aneurysm repair includes routinely obtained physiological and anatomical variables, has excellent discrimination and calibration, and is validated in different geographical areas. For elective AAA repair, several risk scores are available, for ruptured AAA treatment, these scores are far less well developed. In this manuscript, we describe the designs and results of published risk scores for elective and open repair. Also, suggestions for uniformly reporting of risk factors and their statistical analyses are described. Furthermore, the preliminary results of a new risk model for ruptured aortic aneurysm will be discussed. This score identifies age, hemoglobin, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and preoperative systolic blood pressure as risk factors after multivariate regression analysis. This new risk score can help to identify patients that would not benefit from repair, but it can also potentially identify patients who would benefit and therefore lower turndown rates. The challenge for further research is to expand on validation of already existing promising risk scores in order to come to a risk model with optimal discrimination and calibration.

A Comparison between SRSS-IE and SSiS-PSG Scores: Examining Convergent Validity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lane, Kathleen Lynne; Oakes, Wendy Peia; Common, Eric Alan; Zorigian, Kris; Brunsting, Nelson C.; Schatschneider, Christopher

2015-01-01

We report findings of a validation study comparing two screening tools: the Student Risk Screening Scale-Internalizing and Externalizing (SRSS-IE, an adapted version of the Student Risk Screening Scale) and the Social Skills Improvement System-Performance Screening Guide (SSiS-PSG). Participants included 458 kindergarten through fifth-grade…

Neurobehavioral and Neurophysiological Assessment of Healthy and "At-Risk" Full-Term Infants.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eldredge, Lynnette; Salamy, Alan

1988-01-01

Study evaluates the functioning of the central nervous system (CNS) of 15 neonates born at-risk for neurological sequelae and 15 healthy controls. CNS information was generated through the use of two measures: (1) the Neurological and Adaptive Capacity Score (NACS) and the auditory brainstem response (ABR). (Author/RWB)

Single Measure and Gated Screening Approaches for Identifying Students At-Risk for Academic Problems: Implications for Sensitivity and Specificity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Norman, Ethan R.; Nelson, Peter M.; Klingbeil, David A.

2017-01-01

Educators need recommendations to improve screening practices without limiting students' instructional opportunities. Repurposing previous years' state test scores has shown promise in identifying at-risk students within multitiered systems of support. However, researchers have not directly compared the diagnostic accuracy of previous years' state…

Affordable, automatic quantitative fall risk assessment based on clinical balance scales and Kinect data.

PubMed

Colagiorgio, P; Romano, F; Sardi, F; Moraschini, M; Sozzi, A; Bejor, M; Ricevuti, G; Buizza, A; Ramat, S

2014-01-01

The problem of a correct fall risk assessment is becoming more and more critical with the ageing of the population. In spite of the available approaches allowing a quantitative analysis of the human movement control system's performance, the clinical assessment and diagnostic approach to fall risk assessment still relies mostly on non-quantitative exams, such as clinical scales. This work documents our current effort to develop a novel method to assess balance control abilities through a system implementing an automatic evaluation of exercises drawn from balance assessment scales. Our aim is to overcome the classical limits characterizing these scales i.e. limited granularity and inter-/intra-examiner reliability, to obtain objective scores and more detailed information allowing to predict fall risk. We used Microsoft Kinect to record subjects' movements while performing challenging exercises drawn from clinical balance scales. We then computed a set of parameters quantifying the execution of the exercises and fed them to a supervised classifier to perform a classification based on the clinical score. We obtained a good accuracy (~82%) and especially a high sensitivity (~83%).

Comparison of scoring systems for nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a multicenter prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Yang, Hae Min; Jeon, Seong Woo; Jung, Jin Tae; Lee, Dong Wook; Ha, Chang Yoon; Park, Kyung Sik; Lee, Si Hyung; Yang, Chang Heon; Park, Jun Hyung; Park, Youn Sun

2016-01-01

The Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) and Rockall score (RS) are widely used to assess risk in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). We compared both scoring systems and evaluated their clinical usefulness. Between February 2011 and December 2013, 1584 patients with nonvariceal UGIB were included in the study. A prospective study was conducted to compare the performance of the GBS, pre-RS, and full RS. We compared the performance of these scores using receiver operating characteristic curves. For prediction of the need for hospital-based intervention, the GBS was similar to the full RS (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves [AUROC] 0.705 vs 0.727; P = 0.282) and superior to the pre-RS (AUROC 0.705 vs 0.601; P < 0.0001). In predicting death, the full RS was superior to the GBS (AUROC 0.758 vs 0.644; P = 0.0006) and similar to the pre-RS (AUROC 0.758 vs 0.754; P = 0.869). In predicting rebleeding, the full RS was superior to both GBS (AUROC 0.642 vs 0.585; P = 0.031) and pre-RS (AUROC 0.642 vs 0.593; P = 0.0003). Of 1584 patients, 13 (0.8%) scored 0 on the GBS. Therapeutic intervention was not performed in any of these patients. The GBS is more useful than the pre-RS for predicting the need for hospital-based intervention. A cutoff value of 0 for low-risk patients who might be suitable for outpatient management is useful. The full RS is helpful in predicting death. None of the systems accurately predict rebleeding with a low AUROC. ( cris.nih.go.kr/KCT0000514). © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

A new pathological scoring system by the Japanese classification to predict renal outcome in diabetic nephropathy.

PubMed

Hoshino, Junichi; Furuichi, Kengo; Yamanouchi, Masayuki; Mise, Koki; Sekine, Akinari; Kawada, Masahiro; Sumida, Keiichi; Hiramatsu, Rikako; Hasegawa, Eiko; Hayami, Noriko; Suwabe, Tatsuya; Sawa, Naoki; Hara, Shigeko; Fujii, Takeshi; Ohashi, Kenichi; Kitagawa, Kiyoki; Toyama, Tadashi; Shimizu, Miho; Takaichi, Kenmei; Ubara, Yoshifumi; Wada, Takashi

2018-01-01

The impact of the newly proposed pathological classification by the Japan Renal Pathology Society (JRPS) on renal outcome is unclear. So we evaluated that impact and created a new pathological scoring to predict outcome using this classification. A multicenter cohort of 493 biopsy-proven Japanese patients with diabetic nephropathy (DN) were analyzed. The association between each pathological factor-Tervaert' and JRPS classifications-and renal outcome (dialysis initiation or 50% eGFR decline) was estimated by adjusted Cox regression. The overall pathological risk score (J-score) was calculated, whereupon its predictive ability for 10-year risk of renal outcome was evaluated. The J-scores of diffuse lesion classes 2 or 3, GBM doubling class 3, presence of mesangiolysis, polar vasculosis, and arteriolar hyalinosis were, respectively, 1, 2, 4, 1, and 2. The scores of IFTA classes 1, 2, and 3 were, respectively, 3, 4, and 4, and those of interstitial inflammation classes 1, 2, and 3 were 5, 5, and 4 (J-score range, 0-19). Renal survival curves, when dividing into four J-score grades (0-5, 6-10, 11-15, and 16-19), were significantly different from each other (p<0.01, log-rank test). After adjusting clinical factors, the J-score was a significant predictor of renal outcome. Ability to predict 10-year renal outcome was improved when the J-score was added to the basic model: c-statistics from 0.661 to 0.685; category-free net reclassification improvement, 0.154 (-0.040, 0.349, p = 0.12); and integrated discrimination improvement, 0.015 (0.003, 0.028, p = 0.02). Mesangiolysis, polar vasculosis, and doubling of GBM-features of the JRPS system-were significantly associated with renal outcome. Prediction of DN patients' renal outcome was better with the J-score than without it.

The utility of diabetes risk score items as predictors of incident type 2 diabetes in Asian populations: An evidence-based review.

PubMed

Hu, Pei Lin; Koh, Yi Ling Eileen; Tan, Ngiap Chuan

2016-12-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus is rising, with many Asian countries featured in the top 10 countries with the highest numbers of persons with diabetes. Reliable diabetes risk scores enable the identification of individuals at risk of developing diabetes for early intervention. This article aims to identify common risk factors in the risk scores with the highest discrimination; factors with the most influence on the risk score in Asian populations, and to propose a set of factors translatable to the multi-ethnic Singapore population. A systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE databases was conducted to identify studies published before August 2016 that developed risk prediction models for incident diabetes. 12 studies were identified. Risk scores that included laboratory measurements had better discrimination. Coefficient analysis showed fasting glucose and HbA1c having the greatest impact on the risk score. A proposed Asian risk score would include: family history of diabetes, age, gender, smoking status, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, fasting plasma glucose, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides. Future research is required on the influence of ethnicity in Singapore. The risk score may potentially be used to stratify individuals for enrolment into diabetes prevention programmes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relationship between neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, platelet to lymphocyte ratio and thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk score in patients with ST elevation acute myocardial infarction before primary coronary intervention

PubMed Central

Ertaş, Faruk; Bilik, Mehmet Zihni; Akıl, Mehmet Ata; Özyurtlu, Ferhat; Aydın, Mesut; Oylumlu, Mustafa; Polat, Nihat; Yüksel, Murat; Yıldız, Abdulkadir; Kaya, Hasan; Akyüz, Abdurrahman; Ayçiçek, Hilal; Özbek, Mehmet; Toprak, Nizamettin

2015-01-01

Introduction The thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk score is calculated as the sum of independent predictors of mortality and ischemic events in ST elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI). Several studies show that the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a prognostic inflammatory marker. In preliminary studies, platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) has been proposed as a pro-thrombotic marker. The relationship between NLR, PLR and TIMI risk score for STEMI has never been studied. Aim To evaluate the association between TIMI-STEMI risk score and NLR, PLR and other biochemical indices in STEMI. Material and methods In this retrospective study, we evaluated 390 patients who presented with STEMI within 12 h of symptom onset. Patients were grouped according to low and high TIMI risk scores. Results We enrolled 390 patients (mean age 61.9 ±13.6 years; 73% were men). The NLR, platelet distribution width (PDW) and uric acid level (UA) were significantly associated with a high TIMI-STEMI risk score (p = 0.016, p = 0.008, p = 0.030, respectively), but PLR was not associated with a high TIMI-STEMI risk score. Left ventricular ejection fraction was an independent predictor of TIMI-STEMI risk score. A cut-off point of TIMI-STEMI score of > 4 predicted in-hospital mortality (sensitivity 75%, specificity 70%, p < 0.001). We found that NLR, PDW, and UA level were associated with TIMI-STEMI risk score. Conclusions Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, PDW and UA level are convenient, inexpensive and reproducible biomarkers for STEMI prognosis before primary angioplasty when these indicators are combined with the TIMI-STEMI risk score. We believe that these significant findings can guide further clinical practice. PMID:26161105

Factors predicting life-threatening infections with respiratory syncytial virus in adult patients.

PubMed

Park, Se Yoon; Kim, Taeeun; Jang, Young Rock; Kim, Min-Chul; Chong, Yong Pil; Lee, Sang-Oh; Choi, Sang-Ho; Kim, Yang Soo; Woo, Jun Hee; Kim, Sung-Han

2017-05-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a significant cause of acute respiratory illness with a clinical spectrum ranging from self-limiting upper respiratory infection to severe lower respiratory infection in elderly persons as well as young children. However, there are limited data on risk factors for life-threatening infections that could guide the appropriate use of antiviral agents in adult patients with RSV. We conducted a retrospective cohort study from October 2013 to September 2015. Adult patients with RSV who visited the emergency department were enrolled. Primary outcome was life-threatening infection (admission to intensive care unit, need for ventilator care or in-hospital death). A total of 227 patients were analysed. Thirty-four (15%) were classified as having life-threatening infections. By logistic regression, lower respiratory infection, chronic lung disease and bacterial co-infection were independent predictors of life-threatening infections. We developed a simple clinical scoring system using these variables (lower respiratory tract infection = score 4, chronic respiratory disease = score 3, bacterial co-infection = score 3 and fever ≥38 °C = score 2) to predict life-threatening infection. A score of >5 differentiated life-threatening RSV from non-life-threatening RSV with 82% sensitivity (95% CI, 66-93) and 72% specificity (95% CI, 65-78). The use of a clinical scoring system based on lower respiratory infection, chronic respiratory disease, bacterial co-infection and fever appears to be useful for outcome prediction and risk stratification in order to select patients who may need early antiviral therapy.

Clinical risk scoring for predicting non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in metabolic syndrome patients (NAFLD-MS score).

PubMed

Saokaew, Surasak; Kanchanasuwan, Shada; Apisarnthanarak, Piyaporn; Charoensak, Aphinya; Charatcharoenwitthaya, Phunchai; Phisalprapa, Pochamana; Chaiyakunapruk, Nathorn

2017-10-01

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can progress from simple steatosis to hepatocellular carcinoma. None of tools have been developed specifically for high-risk patients. This study aimed to develop a simple risk scoring to predict NAFLD in patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS). A total of 509 patients with MetS were recruited. All were diagnosed by clinicians with ultrasonography-confirmed whether they were patients with NAFLD. Patients were randomly divided into derivation (n=400) and validation (n=109) cohort. To develop the risk score, clinical risk indicators measured at the time of recruitment were built by logistic regression. Regression coefficients were transformed into item scores and added up to a total score. A risk scoring scheme was developed from clinical predictors: BMI ≥25, AST/ALT ≥1, ALT ≥40, type 2 diabetes mellitus and central obesity. The scoring scheme was applied in validation cohort to test the performance. The scheme explained, by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC), 76.8% of being NAFLD with good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 =4.35; P=.629). The positive likelihood ratio of NAFLD in patients with low risk (scores below 3) and high risk (scores 5 and over) were 2.32 (95% CI: 1.90-2.82) and 7.77 (95% CI: 2.47-24.47) respectively. When applied in validation cohort, the score showed good performance with AuROC 76.7%, and illustrated 84%, and 100% certainty in low- and high-risk groups respectively. A simple and non-invasive scoring scheme of five predictors provides good prediction indices for NAFLD in MetS patients. This scheme may help clinicians in order to take further appropriate action. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Decreased Renal Function Is Associated with Elevated CHA2DS2VASC and R2CHADS2 Scores in Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients Presenting with Stroke.

PubMed

Vindhyal, Mohinder; Vindhyal, Shravani R; Haneke, Travis; Ndunda, Paul M; Eid, Freidy; Kallail, K James

2017-12-11

Introduction Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac arrhythmia, affects approximately 2.3 million patients in the United States, costing around $26 billion. Atrial fibrillation is associated with a two- to seven-fold increased risk of stroke, one of the most serious complications. Chronic kidney disease affects approximately 13% of the US population and has been associated with higher rates of AF than the general population. In patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), the risk of stroke increases as the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decreases, especially in CKD stages three and four. Several risks stratification scores such as CHADS2 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes mellitus, stroke), CHA2DS2VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes mellitus, stroke, vascular disease, age, sex), and R2CHADS2 (renal failure, congestive heart failure, age, diabetes, stroke) scores are used for stroke risk assessment in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This study investigates the association between renal functions and risk stratification scoring systems in patients with non-valvular AF presenting with stroke. Methods Using the convenience sampling method, 171 subjects were selected from the eligible population (n = 386). A Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the association between the GFR and each of the CHA2DS2VASc and R2CHADS2 scores. In addition, a Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the association between the CHA2DS2VASc and R2CHADS2 scores. Results The selected population represented 44.3% of the eligible subjects. Of these, 88% were Caucasian, 60% were female, and the mean age was 78 years. The mean CHA2DS2VASc score was six (range 2-9). The mean eGFR was 69.77 (range 6-108). Both the mode and the median CHA2DS2VASc score was four (range 2-8). A weak, but significant, negative correlation was found between renal function (eGFR) and the CHA2DS2VASc score (r = -0.263; p = 0.0005). There was a stronger negative correlation between the eGFR and R2CHADS2score (r = -0.70; p < 0.00001). The CHA2DS2VASc and R2CHADS2scoring schemes were significantly and positively correlated (r = 0.627; p < 0.00001). Discussion In NVAF patients presenting with stroke, renal failure is associated with higher CHA2DS2VASc and R2CHADS2 scores. One must consider renal failure (end-stage or non-end stage renal failure) as an additional potential risk factor for stroke when recommending anticoagulation in non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

Comparison of risk classification between EndoPredict and MammaPrint in ER-positive/HER2-negative primary invasive breast cancer

PubMed Central

Peláez-García, Alberto; Yébenes, Laura; Berjón, Alberto; Angulo, Antonia; Zamora, Pilar; Sánchez-Méndez, José Ignacio; Espinosa, Enrique; Redondo, Andrés; Heredia-Soto, Victoria; Mendiola, Marta; Feliú, Jaime

2017-01-01

Purpose To compare the concordance in risk classification between the EndoPredict and the MammaPrint scores obtained for the same cancer samples on 40 estrogen-receptor positive/HER2-negative breast carcinomas. Methods Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded invasive breast carcinoma tissues that were previously analyzed with MammaPrint as part of routine care of the patients, and were classified as high-risk (20 patients) and low-risk (20 patients), were selected to be analyzed by the EndoPredict assay, a second generation gene expression test that combines expression of 8 genes (EP score) with two clinicopathological variables (tumor size and nodal status, EPclin score). Results The EP score classified 15 patients as low-risk and 25 patients as high-risk. EPclin re-classified 5 of the 25 EP high-risk patients into low-risk, resulting in a total of 20 high-risk and 20 low-risk tumors. EP score and MammaPrint score were significantly correlated (p = 0.008). Twelve of 20 samples classified as low-risk by MammaPrint were also low-risk by EP score (60%). 17 of 20 MammaPrint high-risk tumors were also high-risk by EP score. The overall concordance between EP score and MammaPrint was 72.5% (κ = 0.45, (95% CI, 0.182 to 0.718)). EPclin score also correlated with MammaPrint results (p = 0.004). Discrepancies between both tests occurred in 10 cases: 5 MammaPrint low-risk patients were classified as EPclin high-risk and 5 high-risk MammaPrint were classified as low-risk by EPclin and overall concordance of 75% (κ = 0.5, (95% CI, 0.232 to 0.768)). Conclusions This pilot study demonstrates a limited concordance between MammaPrint and EndoPredict. Differences in results could be explained by the inclusion of different gene sets in each platform, the use of different methodology, and the inclusion of clinicopathological parameters, such as tumor size and nodal status, in the EndoPredict test. PMID:28886093

What is the best predictor of mortality in perforated peptic ulcer disease? A population-based, multivariable regression analysis including three clinical scoring systems.

PubMed

Thorsen, Kenneth; Søreide, Jon Arne; Søreide, Kjetil

2014-07-01

Mortality rates in perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) have remained unchanged. The aim of this study was to compare known clinical factors and three scoring systems (American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), Boey and peptic ulcer perforation (PULP)) in the ability to predict mortality in PPU. This is a consecutive, observational cohort study of patients surgically treated for perforated peptic ulcer over a decade (January 2001 through December 2010). Primary outcome was 30-day mortality. A total of 172 patients were included, of whom 28 (16 %) died within 30 days. Among the factors associated with mortality, the PULP score had an odds ratio (OR) of 18.6 and the ASA score had an OR of 11.6, both with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79. The Boey score had an OR of 5.0 and an AUC of 0.75. Hypoalbuminaemia alone (≤37 g/l) achieved an OR of 8.7 and an AUC of 0.78. In multivariable regression, mortality was best predicted by a combination of increasing age, presence of active cancer and delay from admission to surgery of >24 h, together with hypoalbuminaemia, hyperbilirubinaemia and increased creatinine values, for a model AUC of 0.89. Six clinical factors predicted 30-day mortality better than available risk scores. Hypoalbuminaemia was the strongest single predictor of mortality and may be included for improved risk estimation.

B-type Natriuretic Peptide and RISK-PCI Score in the Risk Assessment in Patients with STEMI Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

PubMed

Asanin, Milika; Mrdovic, Igor; Savic, Lidija; Matic, Dragan; Krljanac, Gordana; Vukcevic, Vladan; Orlic, Dejan; Stankovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Stankovic, Sanja

2016-01-01

RISK-PCI score is a novel score for risk stratification of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and the RISK-PCI score for early risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI. In 120 patients with STEMI treated by pPCI, BNP was measured on admission before pPCI. The primary end point was 30-day mortality. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the most powerful predictive factors of 30-day mortality were the plasma level of BNP ≥ 206.6 pg/mL with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 87.5% and the RISK-PCI score ≥ 5.25 with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 85.7%. Thirty-day mortality was 6.7%. After multivariate adjustment, admission BNP (≥ 206.6 pg/mL) (OR 2.952, 95% CI 1.072 - 8.133, p = 0.036) and the RISK-PCI score (≥ 5.25) (OR 2.284, 95% CI 1.140-4.578, p = 0.020) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. The area under the ROC curve using the RISK-PCI score and BNP to detect mortality was 0.828 (p = 0.002) and 0.903 (p < 0.001), respectively. Addition of BNP to RISK-PCI score increased the area under the ROC to 0.949 (p < 0.001), but this increase measured by the c-statistic was not significant (p = 0.107). Furthermore, the significant improvement in risk reclassification (p < 0.001) and the integrated discrimination index (p = 0.042) were observed with the addition of BNP to RISK-PCI score for 30-day mortality. BNP on admission and the RISK-PCI score were the independent predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with the STEMI treated by pPCI. BNP in combination with the RISK-PCI score showed the way to more accurate risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI.

Stratifying the risks of oral anticoagulation in patients with liver disease.

PubMed

Efird, Lydia M; Mishkin, Daniel S; Berlowitz, Dan R; Ash, Arlene S; Hylek, Elaine M; Ozonoff, Al; Reisman, Joel I; Zhao, Shibei; Jasuja, Guneet K; Rose, Adam J

2014-05-01

Chronic liver disease presents a relative contraindication to warfarin therapy, but some patients with liver disease nevertheless require long-term anticoagulation. The goal is to identify which patients with liver disease might safely receive warfarin. Among 102 134 patients who received warfarin from the Veterans Affairs from 2007 to 2008, International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision codes identified 1763 patients with chronic liver disease. Specific diagnoses and laboratory values (albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, creatinine, and cholesterol) were examined to identify risk of adverse outcomes, while controlling for available bleeding risk factors. Outcomes included percent time in therapeutic range, a measure of anticoagulation control, and major hemorrhagic events, by International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision codes. Patients with liver disease had lower mean time in therapeutic range (53.5%) when compared with patients without (61.7%; P<0.001) and more hemorrhages (hazard ratio, 2.02; P<0.001). Among patients with liver disease, serum albumin and creatinine levels were the strongest predictors of both outcomes. We created a 4-point score system: patients received 1 point each for albumin (2.5-3.49 g/dL) or creatinine (1.01-1.99 mg/dL), and 2 points each for albumin (<2.5 g/dL) or creatinine (≥2 mg/dL). This score predicted both anticoagulation control and hemorrhage. When compared with patients without liver disease, those with a score of zero had modestly lower time in therapeutic range (56.7%) and no increase in hemorrhages (hazard ratio, 1.16; P=0.59), whereas those with the worst score (4) had poor control (29.4%) and high hazard of hemorrhage (hazard ratio, 8.53; P<0.001). Patients with liver disease receiving warfarin have poorer anticoagulation control and more hemorrhages. A simple 4-point scoring system using albumin and creatinine identifies those at risk for poor outcomes. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

A clinical scoring system for predicting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in morbidly obese patients.

PubMed

Campos, Guilherme M; Bambha, Kiran; Vittinghoff, Eric; Rabl, Charlotte; Posselt, Andrew M; Ciovica, Ruxandra; Tiwari, Umesh; Ferrel, Linda; Pabst, Mark; Bass, Nathan M; Merriman, Raphael B

2008-06-01

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is common in morbidly obese persons. Liver biopsy is diagnostic but technically challenging in such individuals. This study was undertaken to develop a clinically useful scoring system to predict the probability of NASH in morbidly obese persons, thus assisting in the decision to perform liver biopsy. Consecutive subjects undergoing bariatric surgery without evidence of other liver disease underwent intraoperative liver biopsy. The outcome was pathologic diagnosis of NASH. Predictors evaluated were demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables. A clinical scoring system was constructed by rounding the estimated regression coefficients for the independent predictors in a multivariate logistic model for the diagnosis of NASH. Of 200 subjects studied, 64 (32%) had NASH. Median body mass index was 48 kg/m(2) (interquartile range, 43-55). Multivariate analysis identified six predictive factors for NASH: the diagnosis of hypertension (odds ratio [OR], 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1-5.6), type 2 diabetes (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.1-6.3), sleep apnea (OR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.3-12.2), AST > 27 IU/L (OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.2-7.0), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) > 27 IU/L (OR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.4-8.0), and non-Black race (OR, 8.4; 95% CI, 1.9-37.1). A NASH Clinical Scoring System for Morbid Obesity was derived to predict the probability of NASH in four categories (low, intermediate, high, and very high). The proposed clinical scoring can predict NASH in morbidly obese persons with sufficient accuracy to be considered for clinical use, identifying a very high-risk group in whom liver biopsy would be very likely to detect NASH, as well as a low-risk group in whom biopsy can be safely delayed or avoided.

Identifying child abuse and neglect risk among postpartum women in Japan using the Japanese version of the Kempe Family Stress Checklist.

PubMed

Baba, Kaori; Kataoka, Yaeko

2014-11-01

The aims of this study were to determine the rate of women who are high-risk for child abuse and neglect in a perinatal unit in Japan, and to identify the factors associated with risk level. To assess the potential risk for child abuse and neglect the Japanese version of the Kempe Family Stress Checklist (FSC-J) was used to guide interviews with postpartum women. FSC-J uses a three-point scale to score 10 categories, categorizing responses as "no risk=0", "risk=5", and "high risk=10". The range of FSC-J is 0-100. Using an established cutoff point of 25, subjects were divided into high and low risk groups. For both groups, relationships between factors were analyzed. Of the 174 subjects who agreed to participate, 12 (6.9%) scored high-risk, and 162 (93.1%) scored low-risk. Adjusted odds ratio identified three associated factors as important for predicting risk level: past mental illness (OR=341.1), previous experience of intimate partner violence (OR=68.0), and having a partner who was unemployed (OR=14.5). Although this study was on a small sample of women in one hospital in Japan and a larger population would make this study much stronger, these results suggest that some 6.9% of postpartum women in Japan may be at high-risk for child abuse and neglect. It is critical, therefore, to develop a system for screening, intervention, and referral for such women and their children. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of EuroSCORE II in a large US database: implications for transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

PubMed

Osnabrugge, Ruben L; Speir, Alan M; Head, Stuart J; Fonner, Clifford E; Fonner, Edwin; Kappetein, A Pieter; Rich, Jeffrey B

2014-09-01

Validation studies of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) have been limited to European datasets. Therefore, the aims of this study were to assess the performance of EuroSCORE II in a large multicentre US database, and compare it with the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS-PROM). In addition, implications for patient selection for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were explored. EuroSCORE II and the STS-PROM were calculated for 50 588 patients from a multi-institutional statewide database of all cardiac surgeries performed since 2003. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), observed vs expected (O:E) ratios and calibration plots. Analyses were performed for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (n = 40 871), aortic valve replacement (AVR) (n = 4107), AVR + CABG (n = 3480), mitral valve (MV) replacement (n = 1071) and MV repair (n = 1059). The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 2.1%. EuroSCORE II was outperformed by the STS-PROM in the overall cohort with regard to discrimination (AUC = 0.77 vs 0.81, respectively; P < 0.001) and calibration (O:E = 0.68 vs 0.80, respectively). Discrimination for CABG was worse with EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.77 vs STS-PROM: 0.81, P < 0.001). For other procedures discrimination was similar: AVR (AUC = 0.71 vs STS-PROM: 0.74, P = 0.40), AVR + CABG (AUC = 0.72 vs STS-PROM: 0.74, P = 0.47), MV repair (AUC = 0.82 vs STS-PROM: 0.86, P = 0.55) and MV replacement (AUC = 0.78 vs STS-PROM: 0.79, P = 0.69). Calibration of EuroSCORE II was worse for CABG (O:E = 0.68 vs STS-PROM: 0.80), similar in AVR + CABG (O:E = 0.76 vs STS-PROM: 0.70) and MV repair (O:E = 0.64 vs STS-PROM: 0.67), while EuroSCORE II may be more accurate in AVR (O:E = 0.96 vs STS-PROM: 0.76). Performance of both models improved when only recent cases (after 1 January 2008) were used. Ongoing TAVI trials aimed at patients with an estimated 4-10% risk of mortality are enrolling patients with mean estimated risks of 6.2% (EuroSCORE II) or 6.0% (STS-PROM), and an actual mortality rate of 4.6% (EuroSCORE II) or 4.8% (STS-PROM). In a large US multicentre database, the STS-PROM performs better than EuroSCORE II for CABG. However, EuroSCORE II is a reasonable alternative in low-risk CABG patients and in those undergoing other cardiac surgical procedures. Clinical trials and physicians that use these scores recruit and treat patients who are at a lower risk than anticipated. This potentially leads to overtreatment with an investigational device. Decision-making should not solely be based on risk scores, but should comprise multidisciplinary heart team discussions. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Ultrasound Scoring of Endometrial Pattern for Fast-Track Identification or Exclusion of Endometrial Cancer in Women with Postmenopausal Bleeding.

PubMed

Dueholm, Margit; Hjorth, Ina Marie Dueholm; Dahl, Katja; Hansen, Estrid Stær; Ørtoft, Gitte

2018-06-23

To evaluate the Risk of Endometrial Cancer (REC) scoring system for the prediction of high and low probability of endometrial cancer (EC) in women with postmenopausal bleeding (PMB). Prospective study (Canadian Task Force classification II-1). Academic hospital. Nine hundred and fifty consecutive patients with PMB underwent transvaginal ultrasonography (TVS) and REC scoring between November 2013 and December 2015. Obstetrics and gynecology residents, supervised by trained physicians, scored endometrial patterns according to the previously established REC scoring system. The reference standard was endometrial samples, endometrial thickness (ET; 4-4.9 mm), operative hysteroscopy, or hysterectomy (ET ≥5 mm), and one-year follow-up in all patients presenting with ET <4 mm. Diagnostic performance for prediction of probability of malignancy was assessed using the REC scoring system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of the TVS REC score system was 97% (range: 95-98) for prediction of malignancy. In 656 patients with ET ≥4 mm, REC scoring effectively predicted high probability of malignancy: sensitivity (95% confidence interval): 92% (range: 87%-95%); specificity: 94% (range: 91%-96%). An REC score of 0 was present in 206 (32%) patients with ET ≥4 mm and was associated with a low negative likelihood ratio of 0.026 for EC. Only 7 patients with EC/atypical hyperplasia were seen among these 206 patients. The REC scoring system identified or ruled out most ECs, clearly demonstrating that more specific image analysis at first-line TVS can accelerate the diagnosis of EC in patients with PMB and may allow for improved selection of second-line strategies in patients with ET ≥4 mm. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Joint use of cardio-embolic and bleeding risk scores in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Marcucci, Maura; Nobili, Alessandro; Tettamanti, Mauro; Iorio, Alfonso; Pasina, Luca; Djade, Codjo D; Franchi, Carlotta; Marengoni, Alessandra; Salerno, Francesco; Corrao, Salvatore; Violi, Francesco; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio

2013-12-01

Scores for cardio-embolic and bleeding risk in patients with atrial fibrillation are described in the literature. However, it is not clear how they co-classify elderly patients with multimorbidity, nor whether and how they affect the physician's decision on thromboprophylaxis. Four scores for cardio-embolic and bleeding risks were retrospectively calculated for ≥ 65 year old patients with atrial fibrillation enrolled in the REPOSI registry. The co-classification of patients according to risk categories based on different score combinations was described and the relationship between risk categories tested. The association between the antithrombotic therapy received and the scores was investigated by logistic regressions and CART analyses. At admission, among 543 patients the median scores (range) were: CHADS2 2 (0-6), CHA2DS2-VASc 4 (1-9), HEMORR2HAGES 3 (0-7), HAS-BLED 2 (1-6). Most of the patients were at high cardio-embolic/high-intermediate bleeding risk (70.5% combining CHADS2 and HEMORR2HAGES, 98.3% combining CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED). 50-60% of patients were classified in a cardio-embolic risk category higher than the bleeding risk category. In univariate and multivariable analyses, a higher bleeding score was negatively associated with warfarin prescription, and positively associated with aspirin prescription. The cardio-embolic scores were associated with the therapeutic choice only after adjusting for bleeding score or age. REPOSI patients represented a population at high cardio-embolic and bleeding risks, but most of them were classified by the scores as having a higher cardio-embolic than bleeding risk. Yet, prescription and type of antithrombotic therapy appeared to be primarily dictated by the bleeding risk. © 2013.

Development of a simple tool to predict the risk of postpartum diabetes in women with gestational diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Köhler, M; Ziegler, A G; Beyerlein, A

2016-06-01

Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) have an increased risk of diabetes postpartum. We developed a score to predict the long-term risk of postpartum diabetes using clinical and anamnestic variables recorded during or shortly after delivery. Data from 257 GDM women who were prospectively followed for diabetes outcome over 20 years of follow-up were used to develop and validate the risk score. Participants were divided into training and test sets. The risk score was calculated using Lasso Cox regression and divided into four risk categories, and its prediction performance was assessed in the test set. Postpartum diabetes developed in 110 women. The computed training set risk score of 5 × body mass index in early pregnancy (per kg/m(2)) + 132 if GDM was treated with insulin (otherwise 0) + 44 if the woman had a family history of diabetes (otherwise 0) - 35 if the woman lactated (otherwise 0) had R (2) values of 0.23, 0.25, and 0.33 at 5, 10, and 15 years postpartum, respectively, and a C-Index of 0.75. Application of the risk score in the test set resulted in observed risk of postpartum diabetes at 5 years of 11 % for low risk scores ≤140, 29 % for scores 141-220, 64 % for scores 221-300, and 80 % for scores >300. The derived risk score is easy to calculate, allows accurate prediction of GDM-related postpartum diabetes, and may thus be a useful prediction tool for clinicians and general practitioners.

Risk management of QTc-prolongation in patients receiving haloperidol: an epidemiological study in a University hospital in Belgium.

PubMed

Vandael, Eline; Vandenberk, Bert; Vandenberghe, Joris; Spriet, Isabel; Willems, Rik; Foulon, Veerle

2016-04-01

Many drugs, including haloperidol, are linked with a risk of QTc-prolongation, which can lead to Torsade de Pointes and sudden cardiac death. To investigate the prevalence of concomitant risk factors for QTc-prolongation in patients treated with haloperidol, and the use of safety measures to minimize this risk. University Hospitals of Leuven, Belgium. Methods A retrospective epidemiological study was performed. On 15 consecutive Mondays, all patients with a prescription for haloperidol were included. A risk score for QTc-prolongation, inspired by the pro-QTc score of Haugaa et al., was calculated based on gender, comorbidities, lab results and concomitant QTc-prolonging drugs (each factor counting for one point). Available electrocardiograms before and during the treatment of haloperidol were registered. Management of the risk of QTc-prolongation. Two hundred twenty-two patients were included (59.0 % men, median age 77 years) of whom 26.6 % had a risk score of ≥4 (known to significantly increase the mortality). Overall, 24.3 % received haloperidol in combination with other drugs with a known risk of Torsade de Pointes. Half of the patients had an electrocardiogram in the week before the start of haloperidol; only in one-third a follow-up electrocardiogram during haloperidol treatment was performed. Of the patients with a moderately (n = 41) or severely (n = 14) prolonged QTc-interval before haloperidol, 48.8 % and 42.9 % respectively had a follow-up electrocardiogram. In patients with a risk score ≥4, significantly more electrocardiograms were taken before starting haloperidol (p = 0.020). Although many patients had risk factors for QTc-prolongation (including the use of other QTc-prolonging drugs) or had a prolonged QTc on a baseline electrocardiogram, follow-up safety measures were limited. Persistent efforts should be taken to develop decision support systems to manage this risk.

All-cause mortality in asymptomatic persons with extensive Agatston scores above 1000.

PubMed

Patel, Jaideep; Blaha, Michael J; McEvoy, John W; Qadir, Sadia; Tota-Maharaj, Rajesh; Shaw, Leslee J; Rumberger, John A; Callister, Tracy Q; Berman, Daniel S; Min, James K; Raggi, Paolo; Agatston, Arthur A; Blumenthal, Roger S; Budoff, Matthew J; Nasir, Khurram

2014-01-01

Risk assessment in the extensive calcified plaque phenotype has been limited by small sample size. We studied all-cause mortality rates among asymptomatic patients with markedly elevated Agatston scores > 1000. We studied a clinical cohort of 44,052 asymptomatic patients referred for coronary calcium scans. Mean follow-up was 5.6 years (range, 1-13 years). All-cause mortality rates were calculated after stratifying by Agatston score (0, 1-1000, 1001-1500, 1500-2000, and >2000). A multivariable Cox regression model adjusting for self-reported traditional risk factors was created to assess the relative mortality hazard of Agatston scores 1001 to 1500, 1501 to 2000, and >2000. With the use of post-estimation modeling, we assessed for the presence of an upper threshold of risk with high Agatston scores. A total of 1593 patients (4% of total population) had Agatston score > 1000. There was a continuous graded decrease in estimated 10-year survival across increasing Agatston score, continuing when Agatston score > 1000 (Agatston score 1001-1500, 78%; Agatston score 1501-2000, 74%; Agatston score > 2000, 51%). After multivariable adjustment, Agatston scores 1001 to 1500, 1501 to 2000, and >2000 were associated with an 8.05-, 7.45-, and 13.26-fold greater mortality risk, respectively, than for Agatston score of 0. Compared with Agatston score 1001 to 1500, Agatston score 1501 to 2000 had a similar all-cause mortality risk, whereas Agatston score > 2000 had an increased relative risk (Agatston score 1501-2000: hazard ratio [HR], 1.01 [95% CI, 0.67-1.51]; Agatston score > 2000: HR, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.30-2.46]). Graphical assessment of the predicted survival model suggests no upper threshold for risk associated with calcified plaque in coronary arteries. Increasing calcified plaque in coronary arteries continues to predict a graded decrease in survival among patients with extensive Agatston score > 1000 with no apparent upper threshold. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

PubMed

Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

2014-12-02

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

The East London glaucoma prediction score: web-based validation of glaucoma risk screening tool

PubMed Central

Stephen, Cook; Benjamin, Longo-Mbenza

2013-01-01

AIM It is difficult for Optometrists and General Practitioners to know which patients are at risk. The East London glaucoma prediction score (ELGPS) is a web based risk calculator that has been developed to determine Glaucoma risk at the time of screening. Multiple risk factors that are available in a low tech environment are assessed to provide a risk assessment. This is extremely useful in settings where access to specialist care is difficult. Use of the calculator is educational. It is a free web based service. Data capture is user specific. METHOD The scoring system is a web based questionnaire that captures and subsequently calculates the relative risk for the presence of Glaucoma at the time of screening. Three categories of patient are described: Unlikely to have Glaucoma; Glaucoma Suspect and Glaucoma. A case review methodology of patients with known diagnosis is employed to validate the calculator risk assessment. RESULTS Data from the patient records of 400 patients with an established diagnosis has been captured and used to validate the screening tool. The website reports that the calculated diagnosis correlates with the actual diagnosis 82% of the time. Biostatistics analysis showed: Sensitivity = 88%; Positive predictive value = 97%; Specificity = 75%. CONCLUSION Analysis of the first 400 patients validates the web based screening tool as being a good method of screening for the at risk population. The validation is ongoing. The web based format will allow a more widespread recruitment for different geographic, population and personnel variables. PMID:23550097

Outcomes of Critical Limb Ischemia in an Urban, Safety Net Hospital Population with High WIfI Amputation Scores

PubMed Central

Ward, Robert; Dunn, Joie; Clavijo, Leonardo; Shavelle, David; Rowe, Vincent; Woo, Karen

2017-01-01

Background Patients presenting to a public hospital with critical limb ischemia (CLI) typically have advanced disease with significant comorbidities. The purpose of this study was to assess the influence of revascularization on 1-year amputation rate of CLI patients presenting to Los Angeles County USC Medical Center, classified according to the Society for Vascular Surgery Wound, Ischemia and foot Infection (WIfI). Methods A retrospective review of patients who presented to a public hospital with CLI from February 2010 to July 2014 was performed. Patients were classified according to the WIfI system. Only patients with complete data who survived at least 12 months after presentation were included. Results Ninety-three patients with 98 affected limbs were included. The mean age was 62.8 years. Eighty-two patients (84%) had hypertension and 71 (72%) had diabetes. Fifty (57.5%) limbs had Trans-Atlantic Inter-Society Consensus (TASC) C or D femoral–popliteal lesions and 82 (98%) had significant infrapopliteal disease. The majority had moderate or high WIfI amputation and revascularization scores. Eighty-four (86%) limbs underwent open, endovascular, or hybrid revascularization. Overall, one year major amputation (OYMA) rate was 26.5%. In limbs with high WIfI amputation score, the OYMA was 34.5%: 21.4% in those who were revascularized and 57% in those who were not. On univariable analysis, factors associated with increased risk of OYMA were nonrevascularization (P = 0.005), hyperlipidemia (P = 0.06), hemodialysis (P = 0.005), gangrene (P = 0.02), ulcer classification (P = 0.05), WIfI amputation score (P = 0.026), and WIfI wound grade (P = 0.04). On multivariable analysis, increasing WIfI amputation score (odds ratio [OR] 1.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0–3.39) was associated with increased risk of OYMA while revascularization (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.07–0.80) was associated with decreased risk of OYMA. Conclusions The OYMA rates in this population were consistent with those predicted by the WIfI classification system. In this population, revascularization significantly reduced the risk of amputation. Comorbidities including diabetes mellitus and TASC classification did not moderate the association of WIfI amputation score with risk of 1-year major amputation. PMID:27546850

Outcomes of Critical Limb Ischemia in an Urban, Safety Net Hospital Population with High WIfI Amputation Scores.

PubMed

Ward, Robert; Dunn, Joie; Clavijo, Leonardo; Shavelle, David; Rowe, Vincent; Woo, Karen

2017-01-01

Patients presenting to a public hospital with critical limb ischemia (CLI) typically have advanced disease with significant comorbidities. The purpose of this study was to assess the influence of revascularization on 1-year amputation rate of CLI patients presenting to Los Angeles County USC Medical Center, classified according to the Society for Vascular Surgery Wound, Ischemia and foot Infection (WIfI). A retrospective review of patients who presented to a public hospital with CLI from February 2010 to July 2014 was performed. Patients were classified according to the WIfI system. Only patients with complete data who survived at least 12 months after presentation were included. Ninety-three patients with 98 affected limbs were included. The mean age was 62.8 years. Eighty-two patients (84%) had hypertension and 71 (72%) had diabetes. Fifty (57.5%) limbs had Trans-Atlantic Inter-Society Consensus (TASC) C or D femoral-popliteal lesions and 82 (98%) had significant infrapopliteal disease. The majority had moderate or high WIfI amputation and revascularization scores. Eighty-four (86%) limbs underwent open, endovascular, or hybrid revascularization. Overall, one year major amputation (OYMA) rate was 26.5%. In limbs with high WIfI amputation score, the OYMA was 34.5%: 21.4% in those who were revascularized and 57% in those who were not. On univariable analysis, factors associated with increased risk of OYMA were nonrevascularization (P = 0.005), hyperlipidemia (P = 0.06), hemodialysis (P = 0.005), gangrene (P = 0.02), ulcer classification (P = 0.05), WIfI amputation score (P = 0.026), and WIfI wound grade (P = 0.04). On multivariable analysis, increasing WIfI amputation score (odds ratio [OR] 1.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-3.39) was associated with increased risk of OYMA while revascularization (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.07-0.80) was associated with decreased risk of OYMA. The OYMA rates in this population were consistent with those predicted by the WIfI classification system. In this population, revascularization significantly reduced the risk of amputation. Comorbidities including diabetes mellitus and TASC classification did not moderate the association of WIfI amputation score with risk of 1-year major amputation. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Longitudinal associations of sleep curtailment with metabolic risk in mid-childhood.

PubMed

Cespedes, Elizabeth M; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Redline, Susan; Gillman, Matthew W; Peña, Michelle-Marie; Taveras, Elsie M

2014-12-01

To examine associations of chronic insufficient sleep with mid-childhood cardiometabolic health. At 6 months and yearly from 1 to 7 years, mothers participating in the Project Viva cohort reported children's 24-h sleep duration. The main exposure was a sleep curtailment score, ranging from 0 (maximal curtailment) to 13 (never having curtailed sleep). The main outcome was a mid-childhood metabolic risk score, derived as the mean of five sex- and cohort-specific z scores for waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol (scaled inversely), and log-transformed triglycerides and HOMA-IR; higher scores indicate higher risk. The mean (SD) sleep score was 10.0 (2.8); 5.1% scored 0-4, 13.9% scored 5-7, 14.1% scored 8-9, 28.7% scored 10-11, and 38.3% scored 12-13. Mean (SD, range) metabolic risk score was -0.03 (0.6, -1.8 to 2.6). In multivariable models, the metabolic risk score difference for children with most versus least curtailed sleep was 0.29 units (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02, 0.57). Further adjustment for mid-childhood BMI z score attenuated this difference to 0.08 units (95% CI: -0.14, 0.30). Chronic insufficient sleep from infancy to school-age was associated with higher mid-childhood metabolic risk. This association was explained by sleep duration's influence on mid-childhood adiposity. © 2014 The Obesity Society.

Risk-adjusted scoring systems in colorectal surgery.

PubMed

Leung, Edmund; McArdle, Kirsten; Wong, Ling S

2011-01-01

Consequent to recent advances in surgical techniques and management, survival rate has increased substantially over the last 25 years, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. However, post-operative morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer vary widely across the country. Therefore, standardised outcome measures are emphasised not only for professional accountability, but also for comparison between treatment units and regions. In a heterogeneous population, the use of crude mortality as an outcome measure for patients undergoing surgery is simply misleading. Meaningful comparisons, however, require accurate risk stratification of patients being analysed before conclusions can be reached regarding the outcomes recorded. Sub-specialised colorectal surgical units usually dedicated to more complex and high-risk operations. The need for accurate risk prediction is necessary in these units as both mortality and morbidity often are tools to justify the practice of high-risk surgery. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a system for classifying patients in the intensive care unit. However, APACHE score was considered too complex for general surgical use. The American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade has been considered useful as an adjunct to informed consent and for monitoring surgical performance through time. ASA grade is simple but too subjective. The Physiological & Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its variant Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) were devised to predict outcomes in surgical patients in general, taking into account of the variables in the case-mix. POSSUM has two parts, which include assessment of physiological parameters and operative scores. There are 12 physiological parameters and 6 operative measures. The physiological parameters are taken at the time of surgery. Each physiological parameter or operative variable is sub-divided into three or four levels with an exponentially increasing score. However, POSSUM and P-POSSUM over-predict mortality in patients who have had colorectal surgery. Discrepancies in these models have led to the introduction of a specialty-specific POSSUM: the ColoRectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM). CR-POSSUM only uses six physiological parameters and four operative measures for prediction of mortality. It is much simplified to allow ease of use. Copyright © 2010 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A proposal for a comprehensive risk scoring system for predicting postoperative complications in octogenarian patients with medically operable lung cancer: JACS1303.

PubMed

Saji, Hisashi; Ueno, Takahiko; Nakamura, Hiroshige; Okumura, Norihito; Tsuchida, Masanori; Sonobe, Makoto; Miyazaki, Takuro; Aokage, Keiju; Nakao, Masayuki; Haruki, Tomohiro; Ito, Hiroyuki; Kataoka, Kazuhiko; Okabe, Kazunori; Tomizawa, Kenji; Yoshimoto, Kentaro; Horio, Hirotoshi; Sugio, Kenji; Ode, Yasuhisa; Takao, Motoshi; Okada, Morihito; Chida, Masayuki

2018-04-01

Although some retrospective studies have reported clinicopathological scoring systems for predicting postoperative complications and survival outcomes for elderly lung cancer patients, optimized scoring systems remain controversial. The Japanese Association for Chest Surgery (JACS) conducted a nationwide multicentre prospective cohort and enrolled a total of 1019 octogenarians with medically operable lung cancer. Details of the clinical factors, comorbidities and comprehensive geriatric assessment were recorded for 895 patients to develop a comprehensive risk scoring (RS) system capable of predicting severe complications. Operative (30 days) and hospital mortality rates were 1.0% and 1.6%, respectively. Complications were observed in 308 (34%) patients, of whom 81 (8.4%) had Grade 3-4 severe complications. Pneumonia was the most common severe complication, observed in 27 (3.0%) patients. Five predictive factors, gender, comprehensive geriatric assessment75: memory and Simplified Comorbidity Score (SCS): diabetes mellitus, albumin and percentage vital capacity, were identified as independent predictive factors for severe postoperative complications (odds ratio = 2.73, 1.86, 1.54, 1.66 and 1.61, respectively) through univariate and multivariate analyses. A 5-fold cross-validation was performed as an internal validation to reconfirm these 5 predictive factors (average area under the curve 0.70). We developed a simplified RS system as follows: RS = 3 (gender: male) + 2 (comprehensive geriatric assessment 75: memory: yes) + 2 (albumin: <3.8 ng/ml) + 1 (percentage vital capacity: ≤90) + 1 (SCS: diabetes mellitus: yes). The current series shows that octogenarians can be successfully treated for lung cancer with surgical resection with an acceptable rate of severe complications and mortality. We propose a simplified RS system to predict severe complications in octogenarian patients with medically operative lung cancer. JACS1303 (UMIN000016756).

Increased Arterial Stiffness in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) Patients at Low Risk for Cardiovascular Disease: A Cross-Sectional Controlled Study

PubMed Central

Sacre, Karim; Escoubet, Brigitte; Pasquet, Blandine; Chauveheid, Marie-Paule; Zennaro, Maria-Christina; Tubach, Florence; Papo, Thomas

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of death in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. Although the risk for cardiovascular events in patients with SLE is significant, the absolute number of events per year in any given cohort remains small. Thus, CVD risks stratification in patients with SLE focuses on surrogate markers for atherosclerosis at an early stage, such as reduced elasticity of arteries. Our study was designed to determine whether arterial stiffness is increased in SLE patients at low risk for CVD and analyze the role for traditional and non-traditional CVD risk factors on arterial stiffness in SLE. Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) was prospectively assessed as a measure of arterial stiffness in 41 SLE patients and 35 controls (CTL). Adjustment on age or Framingham score was performed using a logistic regression model. Factors associated with PWV were identified separately in SLE patients and in controls using Pearson's correlation coefficient for univariate analysis and multiple linear regression for multivariate analysis. SLE patients and controls displayed a low 10-year risk for CVD according to Framingham score (1.8±3.6% in SLE vs 1.6±2.8% in CTL, p = 0.46). Pulse wave velocity was, however, higher in SLE patients (7.1±1.6 m/s) as compared to controls (6.3±0.8 m/s; p = 0.01, after Framingham score adjustment) and correlated with internal carotid wall thickness (p = 0.0017). In multivariable analysis, only systolic blood pressure (p = 0.0005) and cumulative dose of glucocorticoids (p = 0.01) were associated with PWV in SLE patients. Interestingly, the link between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and arterial stiffness was also confirmed in SLE patients with normal systolic blood pressure. In conclusion, arterial stiffness is increased in SLE patients despite a low risk for CVD according to Framingham score and is associated with systolic blood pressure and glucocorticoid therapy. PMID:24722263

A methodology to assess groundwater risk from hydraulic fracturing and other hydrocarbon activities in 3D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loveless, S.; Lewis, M.; Bloomfield, J.; Ward, R.; Davey, I.; Hart, A.

2017-12-01

The shale gas boom of the US has prompted a renewed interest in onshore oil and gas in England. Shale gas has received most public attention, but exploration licences have also been granted for coal bed methane and conventional hydrocarbon resources. Hydraulic fracturing, both from vertical and lateral wells, is a significant contributing factor to the recent successes of hydrocarbon activities in the US. However, there are concerns in England regarding potential environmental impacts of subsurface pathways which may connect the hydrocarbon rocks (and injected fluids) with exploitable groundwater. In England groundwater is an important resource, providing 31% (locally up to 100% in the southeast) of water resources. The British Geological Survey has been working with the Environment Agency in England to understand the hazards and risks to overlying groundwater from onshore hydrocarbon exploitation. In the US, contrasting evidence for stray gas migration from shale targets to drinking water shows that differences in geological conditions contribute to a variation in risk between sites. These geological factors include proximity of the hydrocarbon rock to the groundwater receptor, pre-existing geological pathways, low permeability units, and a driving force (e.g. hydraulic head). Due to substantial geological variation across England, a generic approach to risk assessment that can be applied to specific sites has been developed. A methodology has been developed based on DRASTIC principles, whereby a risk score is attributed to formations within a volume of interest, based on a rank and weighting system for each geological factor, multiplied by a hazard score for a given hydrocarbon activity. This score is compared with an assessment of the importance of the receptor. Scores are relative and enable comparison between different activities and sites. Uncertainty is explicitly assessed and factors with a high degree of uncertainty to be systematically identified and addressed. Rankings should be amended as additional data is obtained. Tests on areas identified for potential hydrocarbon exploration in England show that whilst geological scenarios with very high and low risks are theoretically possible, the majority of proposed locations would have similar risks under the current categorisation system.

Proposal for a new categorization of aseptic processing facilities based on risk assessment scores.

PubMed

Katayama, Hirohito; Toda, Atsushi; Tokunaga, Yuji; Katoh, Shigeo

2008-01-01

Risk assessment of aseptic processing facilities was performed using two published risk assessment tools. Calculated risk scores were compared with experimental test results, including environmental monitoring and media fill run results, in three different types of facilities. The two risk assessment tools used gave a generally similar outcome. However, depending on the tool used, variations were observed in the relative scores between the facilities. For the facility yielding the lowest risk scores, the corresponding experimental test results showed no contamination, indicating that these ordinal testing methods are insufficient to evaluate this kind of facility. A conventional facility having acceptable aseptic processing lines gave relatively high risk scores. The facility showing a rather high risk score demonstrated the usefulness of conventional microbiological test methods. Considering the significant gaps observed in calculated risk scores and in the ordinal microbiological test results between advanced and conventional facilities, we propose a facility categorization based on risk assessment. The most important risk factor in aseptic processing is human intervention. When human intervention is eliminated from the process by advanced hardware design, the aseptic processing facility can be classified into a new risk category that is better suited for assuring sterility based on a new set of criteria rather than on currently used microbiological analysis. To fully benefit from advanced technologies, we propose three risk categories for these aseptic facilities.

Predictive Ability of the SVS WIfI Classification System following First-time Lower Extremity Revascularizations

PubMed Central

Darling, Jeremy D.; McCallum, John C.; Soden, Peter A.; Guzman, Raul J.; Wyers, Mark C.; Hamdan, Allen D.; Verhagen, Hence J.; Schermerhorn, Marc L.

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES The SVS WIfI (wound, ischemia, foot infection) classification system was proposed to predict 1-year amputation risk and potential benefit from revascularization. Our goal was to evaluate the predictive ability of this scale in a “real world” selection of patients undergoing a first time lower extremity revascularization for chronic limb threatening ischemia (CLTI). METHODS From 2005 to 2014, 1,336 limbs underwent a first time lower extremity revascularization for CLTI, of which 992 had sufficient data to classify all three WIfI components (wound, ischemia, and foot infection). Limbs were stratified into the SVS WIfI clinical stages (from 1 to 4) for 1-year amputation risk estimation, as well as a novel WIfI composite score from 0 to 9 (that weighs all WIfI variables equally) and a novel WIfI mean score from 0 to 3 (that can incorporate limbs missing any of the three WIfI components). Outcomes included major amputation, RAS events (revascularization, major amputation, or stenosis [>3.5× step-up by duplex]), and mortality. Predictors were identified using Cox regression models and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. RESULTS Of the 1,336 first-time procedures performed, 992 limbs were classified in all three WIfI components (524 endovascular, 468 bypass; 26% rest pain, 74% tissue loss). Cox regression demonstrated that a one-unit increase in the WIfI clinical stage increases the risk of major amputation and RAS events in all limbs (Hazard Ratio [HR] 2.4; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.7–3.2 and 1.2 [1.1–1.3], respectively). Separate models of the entire cohort, a bypass only cohort, and an endovascular only cohort showed that a one-unit increase in the WIfI mean score is associated with an increase in the risk of major amputation (all three cohorts; 5.3 [3.6–6.8], 4.1 [2.4–6.9], and 6.6 [3.8–11.6], respectively) and RAS events (all three cohorts; 1.7 [1.4–2.0], 1.9 [1.4–2.6], and 1.4 [1.1–1.9], respectively). The novel WIfI composite and WIfI mean scores were the only consistent predictors of mortality among the three cohorts, with the WIfI mean score proving most strongly predictive in the entire cohort (1.4 [1.1–1.7]), the bypass only cohort (1.5 [1.1–1.9]) and the endovascular only cohort (1.4 [1.0–1.8]). Although the individual WIfI wound component was able to predict mortality among all patients (1.1 [1.0–1.2]) and bypass only patients (1.2 [1.1–1.3]), no other individual WIfI component, nor the WIfI clinical stage, were able to significantly predict mortality among any cohort. CONCLUSION This study supports the ability of the SVS WIfI classification system to predict major amputation; however, the novel WIfI mean and WIfI composite scores predict amputation, RAS events, and mortality more consistently than any other current WIfI scoring system. The WIfI mean score allows inclusion of all limbs, and both novel scoring systems are easier to conceptualize, give equal weight to each WIfI component, and may provide clinicians more effective comparisons in outcomes between patients. PMID:28073665

Assessing for suicidal behavior in youth using the Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment.

PubMed

Van Meter, Anna R; Algorta, Guillermo Perez; Youngstrom, Eric A; Lechtman, Yana; Youngstrom, Jen K; Feeny, Norah C; Findling, Robert L

2018-02-01

This study investigated the clinical utility of the Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA) for identifying youth at risk for suicide. Specifically, we investigated how well the Total Problems scores and the sum of two suicide-related items (#18 "Deliberately harms self or attempts suicide" and #91 "Talks about killing self") were able to distinguish youth with a history of suicidal behavior. Youth (N = 1117) aged 5-18 were recruited for two studies of mental illness. History of suicidal behavior was assessed by semi-structured interviews (K-SADS) with youth and caregivers. Youth, caregivers, and a primary teacher each completed the appropriate form (YSR, CBCL, and TRF, respectively) of the ASEBA. Areas under the curve (AUCs) from ROC analyses and diagnostic likelihood ratios (DLRs) were used to measure the ability of both Total Problems T scores, as well as the summed score of two suicide-related items, to identify youth with a history of suicidal behavior. The Suicide Items from the CBCL and YSR performed well (AUCs = 0.85 and 0.70, respectively). The TRF Suicide Items did not perform better than chance, AUC = 0.45. The AUCs for the Total Problems scores were poor-to-fair (0.33-0.65). The CBCL Suicide Items outperformed all other scores (ps = 0.04 to <0.0005). Combining the CBCL and YSR items did not lead to incremental improvement in prediction over the CBCL alone. The sum of two questions from a commonly used assessment tool can offer important information about a youth's risk for suicidal behavior. The low burden of this approach could facilitate wide-spread screening for suicide in an increasingly at-risk population.

A characterization of factors determining postoperative ileus after laparoscopic colectomy enables the generation of a novel predictive score.

PubMed

Kronberg, Udo; Kiran, Ravi P; Soliman, Mohamed S M; Hammel, Jeff P; Galway, Ursula; Coffey, John Calvin; Fazio, Victor W

2011-01-01

Postoperative ileus (POI) after colorectal surgery is associated with prolonged hospital stay and increased costs. The aim of this study is to investigate pre-, intra-, and postoperative risk factors associated with the development of POI in patients undergoing laparoscopic partial colectomy. Patients operated between 2004 and 2008 were retrospectively identified from a prospectively maintained database, and clinical, metabolic, and pharmacologic data were obtained. Postoperative ileus was defined as the absence of bowel function for 5 or more days or the need for reinsertion of a nasogastric tube after starting oral diet in the absence of mechanical obstruction. Associations between likelihood of POI and study variables were assessed univariably by using χ tests, Fisher exact tests, and logistic regression models. A scoring system for prediction of POI was constructed by using a multivariable logistic regression model based on forward stepwise selection of preoperative factors. A total of 413 patients (mean age, 58 years; 53.5% women) were included, and 42 (10.2%) of them developed POI. Preoperative albumin, postoperative deep-vein thrombosis, and electrolyte levels were associated with POI. Age, previous abdominal surgery, and chronic preoperative use of narcotics were independently correlated with POI on multivariate analysis, which allowed the creation of a predictive score. Patients with a score of 2 or higher had an 18.3% risk of POI (P < 0.001). Postoperative ileus after laparoscopic partial colectomy is associated with specific preoperative and postoperative factors. The likelihood of POI can be predicted by using a preoperative scoring system. Addressing the postoperative factors may be expected to reduce the incidence of this common complication in high-risk patients.

Time to foster a rational approach to preventing cardiovascular morbid events.

PubMed

Cohn, Jay N; Duprez, Daniel A

2008-07-29

Efforts to prevent atherosclerotic morbid events have focused primarily on risk factor prevention and intervention. These approaches, based on the statistical association of risk factors with events, have dominated clinical practice in the last generation. Because the cardiovascular abnormalities eventuating in morbid events are detectable in the arteries and heart before the development of symptomatic disease, recent efforts have focused on identifying the presence of these abnormalities as a more sensitive and specific guide to the need for therapy. Advances in noninvasive techniques for studying the vasculature and the left ventricle now provide the opportunity to use early disease rather than risk factors as the tool for clinical decision making. A disease scoring system has been developed using 10 tests of vascular and cardiac function and structure. More extensive data to confirm the sensitivity and specificity of this scoring system and to demonstrate its utility in tracking the response to therapy are needed to justify widespread application in clinical practice.

Predictive Analytics for Identification of Patients at Risk for QT Interval Prolongation - A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Tomaselli Muensterman, Elena; Tisdale, James E

2018-06-08

Prolongation of the heart rate-corrected QT (QTc) interval increases the risk for torsades de pointes (TdP), a potentially fatal arrhythmia. The likelihood of TdP is higher in patients with risk factors, which include female sex, older age, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, hypokalemia, hypomagnesemia, concomitant administration of ≥ 2 QTc interval-prolonging medications, among others. Assessment and quantification of risk factors may facilitate prediction of patients at highest risk for developing QTc interval prolongation and TdP. Investigators have utilized the field of predictive analytics, which generates predictions using techniques including data mining, modeling, machine learning, and others, to develop methods of risk quantification and prediction of QTc interval prolongation. Predictive analytics have also been incorporated into clinical decision support (CDS) tools to alert clinicians regarding patients at increased risk of developing QTc interval prolongation. The objectives of this paper are to assess the effectiveness of predictive analytics for identification of patients at risk of drug-induced QTc interval prolongation, and to discuss the efficacy of incorporation of predictive analytics into CDS tools in clinical practice. A systematic review of English language articles (human subjects only) was performed, yielding 57 articles, with an additional 4 articles identified from other sources; a total of 10 articles were included in this review. Risk scores for QTc interval prolongation have been developed in various patient populations including those in cardiac intensive care units (ICUs) and in broader populations of hospitalized or health system patients. One group developed a risk score that includes information regarding genetic polymorphisms; this score significantly predicted TdP. Development of QTc interval prolongation risk prediction models and incorporation of these models into CDS tools reduces the risk of QTc interval prolongation in cardiac ICUs and identifies health-system patients at increased risk for mortality. The impact of these QTc interval prolongation predictive analytics on overall patient safety outcomes, such as TdP and sudden cardiac death relative to the cost of development and implementation, requires further study. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A robust prognostic signature for hormone-positive node-negative breast cancer.

PubMed

Griffith, Obi L; Pepin, François; Enache, Oana M; Heiser, Laura M; Collisson, Eric A; Spellman, Paul T; Gray, Joe W

2013-01-01

Systemic chemotherapy in the adjuvant setting can cure breast cancer in some patients that would otherwise recur with incurable, metastatic disease. However, since only a fraction of patients would have recurrence after surgery alone, the challenge is to stratify high-risk patients (who stand to benefit from systemic chemotherapy) from low-risk patients (who can safely be spared treatment related toxicities and costs). We focus here on risk stratification in node-negative, ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. We use a large database of publicly available microarray datasets to build a random forests classifier and develop a robust multi-gene mRNA transcription-based predictor of relapse free survival at 10 years, which we call the Random Forests Relapse Score (RFRS). Performance was assessed by internal cross-validation, multiple independent data sets, and comparison to existing algorithms using receiver-operating characteristic and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Internal redundancy of features was determined using k-means clustering to define optimal signatures with smaller numbers of primary genes, each with multiple alternates. Internal OOB cross-validation for the initial (full-gene-set) model on training data reported an ROC AUC of 0.704, which was comparable to or better than those reported previously or obtained by applying existing methods to our dataset. Three risk groups with probability cutoffs for low, intermediate, and high-risk were defined. Survival analysis determined a highly significant difference in relapse rate between these risk groups. Validation of the models against independent test datasets showed highly similar results. Smaller 17-gene and 8-gene optimized models were also developed with minimal reduction in performance. Furthermore, the signature was shown to be almost equally effective on both hormone-treated and untreated patients. RFRS allows flexibility in both the number and identity of genes utilized from thousands to as few as 17 or eight genes, each with multiple alternatives. The RFRS reports a probability score strongly correlated with risk of relapse. This score could therefore be used to assign systemic chemotherapy specifically to those high-risk patients most likely to benefit from further treatment.

A robust prognostic signature for hormone-positive node-negative breast cancer

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Systemic chemotherapy in the adjuvant setting can cure breast cancer in some patients that would otherwise recur with incurable, metastatic disease. However, since only a fraction of patients would have recurrence after surgery alone, the challenge is to stratify high-risk patients (who stand to benefit from systemic chemotherapy) from low-risk patients (who can safely be spared treatment related toxicities and costs). Methods We focus here on risk stratification in node-negative, ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. We use a large database of publicly available microarray datasets to build a random forests classifier and develop a robust multi-gene mRNA transcription-based predictor of relapse free survival at 10 years, which we call the Random Forests Relapse Score (RFRS). Performance was assessed by internal cross-validation, multiple independent data sets, and comparison to existing algorithms using receiver-operating characteristic and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Internal redundancy of features was determined using k-means clustering to define optimal signatures with smaller numbers of primary genes, each with multiple alternates. Results Internal OOB cross-validation for the initial (full-gene-set) model on training data reported an ROC AUC of 0.704, which was comparable to or better than those reported previously or obtained by applying existing methods to our dataset. Three risk groups with probability cutoffs for low, intermediate, and high-risk were defined. Survival analysis determined a highly significant difference in relapse rate between these risk groups. Validation of the models against independent test datasets showed highly similar results. Smaller 17-gene and 8-gene optimized models were also developed with minimal reduction in performance. Furthermore, the signature was shown to be almost equally effective on both hormone-treated and untreated patients. Conclusions RFRS allows flexibility in both the number and identity of genes utilized from thousands to as few as 17 or eight genes, each with multiple alternatives. The RFRS reports a probability score strongly correlated with risk of relapse. This score could therefore be used to assign systemic chemotherapy specifically to those high-risk patients most likely to benefit from further treatment. PMID:24112773

Predictors of re-entry into the child protection system in Singapore: a cumulative ecological-transactional risk model.

PubMed

Li, Dongdong; Chu, Chi Meng; Ng, Wei Chern; Leong, Wai

2014-11-01

This study examines the risk factors of re-entry for 1,750 child protection cases in Singapore using a cumulative ecological-transactional risk model. Using administrative data, the present study found that the overall percentage of Child Protection Service (CPS) re-entry in Singapore is 10.5% based on 1,750 cases, with a range from 3.9% (within 1 year) to 16.5% (within 8 years after case closure). One quarter of the re-entry cases were observed to occur within 9 months from case closure. Seventeen risk factors, as identified from the extant literature, were tested for their utility to predict CPS re-entry in this study using a series of Cox regression analyses. A final list of seven risk factors (i.e., children's age at entry, case type, case closure result, duration of case, household income, family size, and mother's employment status) was used to create a cumulative risk score. The results supported the cumulative risk model in that higher risk score is related to higher risk of CPS re-entry. Understanding the prevalence of CPS re-entry and the risk factors associated with re-entry is the key to informing practice and policy in a culturally relevant way. The results from this study could then be used to facilitate critical case management decisions in order to enhance positive outcomes of families and children in Singapore's care system. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MARK’s Quadrant scoring system: a symptom-based targeted screening tool for gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Tata, Mahadevan D.; Gurunathan, Ramesh; Palayan, Kandasami

2014-01-01

Background Gastric cancer is notably one of the leading causes of cancer-related death in the world. In Malaysia, these patients present in the advanced stage, thus narrowing the treatment options and making the surgery nearly impossible for successful curative resection. Failure to identify high-risk patients and delay in diagnostic endoscope procedure contributed to the delay in diagnosis. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a scoring system (MARK’s Quadrant) which can identify symptomatic patients who are at risk for gastric cancer. Methods A 3-phase approach was undertaken: Phase 1: development of the weighted scoring system; Phase 2: estimating positive predicting value of MARK’s Quadrant; and Phase 3: a) testing the validity of MARK’s Quadrant in an open-access endoscope system; and b) comparing its usefulness compared to conventional referral system. Results In phases 1 and 2, MARK’s Quadrant with weighted symptoms was developed. The sensitivity of MARK’s Quadrant is 88% and the specificity is 45.5% to detect cancerous and precancerous lesions of gastric. This was confirmed by the prospective data from phase 3 of this study where the diagnostic yield of MARK’s Quadrant to detect any pathological lesion was 95.2%. This score has a high accuracy efficiency of 75%, hence comparing to routine referral system it has an odds ratio (95%CI) of 10.98 (4.63-26.00), 6.71 (4.46-10.09) and 0.95 (0.06-0.15) (P<0.001 respectively) for cancer, precancerous lesion and benign lesion diagnosis respectively. Conclusion MARK’s Quadrant is a useful tool to detect early gastric cancer among symptomatic patients in a low incidence region. PMID:24714557

Using Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS)-based analysis in the development of regional risk adjustment tools to trend quality in a voluntary trauma system: the experience of the Trauma Foundation of Northeast Ohio.

PubMed

Mancuso, C; Barnoski, A; Tinnell, C; Fallon, W

2000-04-01

Presently, no trauma system exists in Ohio. Since 1993, all hospitals in Cuyahoga County (CUY), northeast Ohio (n = 22) provide data to a trauma registry. In return, each received hospital-specific data, comparison data by trauma care level and a county-wide aggregate summary. This report describes the results of this approach in our region. All cases were entered by paper abstract or electronic download. Interrater reliability audits and z score analysis was performed by using the Major Trauma Outcome Study and the CUY 1994 baseline groups. Risk adjustment of mortality data was performed using statistical modeling and logistic regression (Trauma and Injury Severity Score, Major Trauma Outcome Study, CUY). Trauma severity measures were defined. In 1995, 3,375 patients were entered. Two hundred ninety-one died (8.6%). Severity measures differed by level of trauma care, indicating differences in case mix. Probability of survival was lowest in the Level I centers, highest in the acute care hospitals. Outcomes z scores demonstrated survival differences for all levels. In a functioning trauma system, the most severely injured patients should be cared for at the trauma centers. A low volume at acute care hospitals is desirable. By using Trauma and Injury Severity Score with community-specific constants, NE Ohio is accomplishing these goals. The Level I performance data are an interesting finding compared with the data from the Level II centers in the region

Evacuation of a Tertiary Neonatal Centre: Lessons from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes

PubMed Central

Iwata, Osuke; Kawase, Akihiko; Iwai, Masanori; Wada, Kazuko

2017-01-01

Background Newborn infants hospitalised in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) are vulnerable to natural disasters. However, publications on evacuation from NICUs are sparse. The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes caused serious damage to Kumamoto City Hospital and its level III regional core NICU. Local/neighbour NICU teams and the disaster-communication team of a neonatal academic society cooperated to evacuate 38 newborn infants from the ward. Objective The aim of this paper was to highlight potential key factors to improve emergency NICU evacuation and coordination of hospital transportation following natural disasters. Methods Background variables including clinical risk scores and timing/destination of transportation were compared between infants, who subsequently were transferred to destinations outside of Kumamoto Prefecture, and their peers. Results All but 1 of the infants were successfully evacuated from their NICU within 8 h. One very-low-birth-weight infant developed moderate hypothermia following transportation. Fourteen infants were transferred to NICUs outside of Kumamoto Prefecture, which was associated with the diagnosis of congenital heart disease, dependence on respiratory support, higher risk scores, and longer elapsed time from the decision to departure. There was difficulty in arranging helicopter transportation because the coordination office of the Disaster Medical Assistance Team had requisitioned most air/ground ambulances and only helped arrange ground transportations for 13 low-risk infants. Transportation for all 10 high-risk infants (risk scores greater than or equal to the upper quartile) was arranged by local/neighbour NICUs. Conclusions Although the overall evacuation process was satisfactory, potential risks of relying on the adult-based emergency transportation system were highlighted. A better system needs to be developed urgently to put appropriate priority on vulnerable infants. PMID:28437783

Novel biomarker-based model for the prediction of sorafenib response and overall survival in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Kim, Hwi Young; Lee, Dong Hyeon; Lee, Jeong-Hoon; Cho, Young Youn; Cho, Eun Ju; Yu, Su Jong; Kim, Yoon Jun; Yoon, Jung-Hwan

2018-03-20

Prediction of the outcome of sorafenib therapy using biomarkers is an unmet clinical need in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim was to develop and validate a biomarker-based model for predicting sorafenib response and overall survival (OS). This prospective cohort study included 124 consecutive HCC patients (44 with disease control, 80 with progression) with Child-Pugh class A liver function, who received sorafenib. Potential serum biomarkers (namely, hepatocyte growth factor [HGF], fibroblast growth factor [FGF], vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1, CD117, and angiopoietin-2) were tested. After identifying independent predictors of tumor response, a risk scoring system for predicting OS was developed and 3-fold internal validation was conducted. A risk scoring system was developed with six covariates: etiology, platelet count, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, protein induced by vitamin K absence-II, HGF, and FGF. When patients were stratified into low-risk (score ≤ 5), intermediate-risk (score 6), and high-risk (score ≥ 7) groups, the model provided good discriminant functions on tumor response (concordance [c]-index, 0.884) and 12-month survival (area under the curve [AUC], 0.825). The median OS was 19.0, 11.2, and 6.1 months in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk group, respectively (P < 0.001). In internal validation, the model maintained good discriminant functions on tumor response (c-index, 0.825) and 12-month survival (AUC, 0.803), and good calibration functions (all P > 0.05 between expected and observed values). This new model including serum FGF and HGF showed good performance in predicting the response to sorafenib and survival in patients with advanced HCC.

Evacuation of a Tertiary Neonatal Centre: Lessons from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes.

PubMed

Iwata, Osuke; Kawase, Akihiko; Iwai, Masanori; Wada, Kazuko

2017-01-01

Newborn infants hospitalised in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) are vulnerable to natural disasters. However, publications on evacuation from NICUs are sparse. The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes caused serious damage to Kumamoto City Hospital and its level III regional core NICU. Local/neighbour NICU teams and the disaster-communication team of a neonatal academic society cooperated to evacuate 38 newborn infants from the ward. The aim of this paper was to highlight potential key factors to improve emergency NICU evacuation and coordination of hospital transportation following natural disasters. Background variables including clinical risk scores and timing/destination of transportation were compared between infants, who subsequently were transferred to destinations outside of Kumamoto Prefecture, and their peers. All but 1 of the infants were successfully evacuated from their NICU within 8 h. One very-low-birth-weight infant developed moderate hypothermia following transportation. Fourteen infants were transferred to NICUs outside of Kumamoto Prefecture, which was associated with the diagnosis of congenital heart disease, dependence on respiratory support, higher risk scores, and longer elapsed time from the decision to departure. There was difficulty in arranging helicopter transportation because the coordination office of the Disaster Medical Assistance Team had requisitioned most air/ground ambulances and only helped arrange ground transportations for 13 low-risk infants. Transportation for all 10 high-risk infants (risk scores greater than or equal to the upper quartile) was arranged by local/neighbour NICUs. Although the overall evacuation process was satisfactory, potential risks of relying on the adult-based emergency transportation system were highlighted. A better system needs to be developed urgently to put appropriate priority on vulnerable infants. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Perioperative outcomes of zero ischemia radiofrequency ablation-assisted tumor enucleation for renal cell carcinoma: results of 182 patients.

PubMed

Zhang, Chengwei; Zhao, Xiaozhi; Guo, Suhan; Ji, Changwei; Wang, Wei; Guo, Hongqian

2018-05-15

To evaluate the perioperative outcomes of zero ischemia radiofrequency ablation-assisted tumor enucleation. Patients undergoing zero ischemia radiofrequency ablation-assisted tumor enucleation were retrospectively identified from July 2008 to March 2013. The tumor was enucleated after RFA treatment. R.E.N.A.L., PADUA and centrality index (C-index) score systems were used to assess each tumor case. We analyzed the correlation of perioperative outcomes with these scores. Postoperative complications were graded with Clavien-Dindo system. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess risk of complications. Among 182 patients assessed, median tumor size, estimated blood loss, hospital stay and operative time were 3.2 cm (IQR 2.8-3.4), 80 ml (IQR 50-120), 7 days (IQR 6-8) and 100 min (IQR 90-120), respectively. All three scoring systems were strongly correlated with estimated blood loss, hospital stay and operative time. We found 3 (1.6%) intraoperative and 23 (12.6%, 13 [7.1%] Grade 1 and 10 [5.5%] Grade 2 & 3a) postoperative complications. The median follow-up was 55.5 months (IQR 45-70). Additionally, the complexities of R.E.N.A.L., PADUA and C-index scores were significantly correlated with complication grades (P < 0.001; P < 0.001; P < 0.001; respectively). As the representative, R.E.N.A.L. score was an independent predictive factor for postoperative complications and patients with a high complexity had an over 24-fold higher risk compared to those with a low complexity (OR 24.360, 95% CI 4.412-134.493, P < 0.001). Zero ischemia radiofrequency ablation-assisted tumor enucleation is considered an effective nephron-sparing treatment. Scoring systems could be useful for predicting perioperative outcomes of radiofrequency ablation-assisted tumor enucleation.

Insufficient access to harm reduction measures in prisons in 5 countries (PRIDE Europe): a shared European public health concern.

PubMed

Michel, Laurent; Lions, Caroline; Van Malderen, Sara; Schiltz, Julie; Vanderplasschen, Wouter; Holm, Karina; Kolind, Torsten; Nava, Felice; Weltzien, Nadja; Moser, Andrea; Jauffret-Roustide, Marie; Maguet, Olivier; Carrieri, Patrizia M; Brentari, Cinzia; Stöver, Heino

2015-10-27

Prisoners constitute a high-risk population, particularly for infectious diseases. The aim of this study was to estimate the level of infectious risk in the prisons of five different European countries by measuring to what extent the prison system adheres to WHO/UNODC recommendations. Following the methodology used in a previous French survey, a postal/electronic questionnaire was sent to all prisons in Austria, Belgium, Denmark and Italy to collect data on the availability of several recommended HIV-HCV prevention interventions and HBV vaccination for prisoners. A score was built to compare adherence to WHO/UNODC recommendations (considered a proxy of environmental infectious risk) in those 4 countries. It ranged from 0 (no adherence) to 12 (full adherence). A second score (0 to 9) was built to include data from a previous French survey, thereby creating a 5-country comparison. A majority of prisons answered in Austria (100 %), France (66 %) and Denmark (58 %), half in Belgium (50 %) and few in Italy (17 %), representing 100, 74, 89, 47 and 23 % coverage of the prison populations, respectively. Availability of prevention measures was low, with median adherence scores ranging from 3.5 to 4.5 at the national level. These results were confirmed when using the second score which included France in the inter-country comparison. Overall, the adherence score was inversely associated with prison overpopulation rates (p = 0.08). Using a score of adherence to WHO/UNODC recommendations, the estimated environmental infectious risk remains extremely high in the prisons of the 5 European countries assessed. Public health strategies should be adjusted to comply with the principle of equivalence of care and prevention with the general community.

Accuracy, calibration and clinical performance of the EuroSCORE: can we reduce the number of variables?

PubMed

Ranucci, Marco; Castelvecchio, Serenella; Menicanti, Lorenzo; Frigiola, Alessandro; Pelissero, Gabriele

2010-03-01

The European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) is currently used in many institutions and is considered a reference tool in many countries. We hypothesised that too many variables were included in the EuroSCORE using limited patient series. We tested different models using a limited number of variables. A total of 11150 adult patients undergoing cardiac operations at our institution (2001-2007) were retrospectively analysed. The 17 risk factors composing the EuroSCORE were separately analysed and ranked for accuracy of prediction of hospital mortality. Seventeen models were created by progressively including one factor at a time. The models were compared for accuracy with a receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis and area under the curve (AUC) evaluation. Calibration was tested with Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Clinical performance was assessed by comparing the predicted with the observed mortality rates. The best accuracy (AUC 0.76) was obtained using a model including only age, left ventricular ejection fraction, serum creatinine, emergency operation and non-isolated coronary operation. The EuroSCORE AUC (0.75) was not significantly different. Calibration and clinical performance were better in the five-factor model than in the EuroSCORE. Only in high-risk patients were 12 factors needed to achieve a good performance. Including many factors in multivariable logistic models increases the risk for overfitting, multicollinearity and human error. A five-factor model offers the same level of accuracy but demonstrated better calibration and clinical performance. Models with a limited number of factors may work better than complex models when applied to a limited number of patients. Copyright (c) 2009 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Same score, different message: perceptions of offender risk depend on Static-99R risk communication format.

PubMed

Varela, Jorge G; Boccaccini, Marcus T; Cuervo, Veronica A; Murrie, Daniel C; Clark, John W

2014-10-01

The popular Static-99R allows evaluators to convey results in terms of risk category (e.g., low, moderate, high), relative risk (compared with other sexual offenders), or normative sample recidivism rate formats (e.g., 30% reoffended in 5 years). But we do not know whether judges and jurors draw similar conclusions about the same Static-99R score when findings are communicated using different formats. Community members reporting for jury duty (N = 211) read a tutorial on the Static-99R and a description of a sexual offender and his crimes. We varied his Static-99R score (1 or 6) and risk communication format (categorical, relative risk, or recidivism rate). Participants rated the high-scoring offender as higher risk than the low-scoring offender in the categorical communication condition, but not in the relative risk or recidivism rate conditions. Moreover, risk ratings of the high-scoring offender were notably higher in the categorical communication condition than the relative risk and recidivism rate conditions. Participants who read about a low Static-99R score tended to report that Static-99R results were unimportant and difficult to understand, especially when risk was communicated using categorical or relative risk formats. Overall, results suggest that laypersons are more receptive to risk results indicating high risk than low risk and more receptive to risk communication messages that provide an interpretative label (e.g., high risk) than those that provide statistical results. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Development of a self-assessment score for metabolic syndrome risk in non-obese Korean adults.

PubMed

Je, Youjin; Kim, Youngyo; Park, Taeyoung

2017-03-01

There is a need for simple risk scores that identify individuals at high risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS). Therefore, this study was performed to develop and validate a self-assessment score for MetS risk in non-obese Korean adults. Data from the fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES IV), 2007-2009 were used to develop a MetS risk score. We included a total of 5,508 non-obese participants aged 19-64 years who were free of a self-reported diagnosis of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, stroke, angina, or cancer. Multivariable logistic regression model coefficients were used to assign each variable category a score. The validity of the score was assessed in an independent population survey performed in 2010 and 2011, KNHANES V (n=3,892). Age, BMI, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, dairy consumption, dietary habit of eating less salty and food insecurity were selected as categorical variables. The MetS risk score value varied from 0 to 13, and a cut-point MetS risk score of >=7 was selected based on the highest Youden index. The cut-point provided a sensitivity of 81%, specificity of 61%, positive predictive value of 14%, and negative predictive value of 98%, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78. Consistent results were obtained in the validation data sets. This simple risk score may be used to identify individuals at high risk for MetS without laboratory tests among non-obese Korean adults. Further studies are needed to verify the usefulness and feasibility of this score in various settings.

Comparison of Glasgow-Blatchford score and full Rockall score systems to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Mokhtare, Marjan; Bozorgi, Vida; Agah, Shahram; Nikkhah, Mehdi; Faghihi, Amirhossein; Boghratian, Amirhossein; Shalbaf, Neda; Khanlari, Abbas; Seifmanesh, Hamidreza

2016-01-01

Various risk scoring systems have been recently developed to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The two commonly used scoring systems include full Rockall score (RS) and the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS). Bleeding scores were assessed in terms of prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with UGIB. Two hundred patients (age >18 years) with obvious symptoms of UGIB in the emergency department of Rasoul Akram Hospital were enrolled. Full RS and GBS were calculated. We followed the patients for records of rebleeding and 1-month mortality. A receiver operating characteristic curve by using areas under the curve (AUCs) was used to statistically identify the best cutoff point. Eighteen patients were excluded from the study due to failure to follow-up. Rebleeding and mortality rate were 9.34% (n=17) and 11.53% (n=21), respectively. Regarding 1-month mortality, full RS was better than GBS (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P =0.021). GBS was more accurate in terms of detecting transfusion need (AUC, 0.757 versus 0.528; P =0.001), rebleeding rate (AUC, 0.722 versus 0.520; P =0.002), intensive care unit admission rate (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P =0.021), and endoscopic intervention rate (AUC, 0.771 versus 0.650; P <0.001). We found the full RS system is better for 1-month mortality prediction while GBS system is better for prediction of other outcomes.

Differentiating Community Dwellers at Risk for Pathological Narcissism From Community Dwellers at Risk for Psychopathy Using Measures of Emotion Recognition and Subjective Emotional Activation.

PubMed

Fossati, Andrea; Somma, Antonella; Pincus, Aaron; Borroni, Serena; Dowgwillo, Emily A

2017-06-01

The Italian translations of the Pathological Narcissism Inventory (PNI) and Triarchic Psychopathy Measure (TriPM) were administered to 609 community dwelling adults. Participants who scored in the upper 10% of the distribution of the PNI total score were assigned to the group of participants at risk for pathological narcissism, whereas participants who scored in the upper 10% of the distribution of the TriPM total score were assigned to the group of participants at risk for psychopathy. The final sample included 126 participants who were administered the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test (RMET) and emotion-eliciting movie clips. Participants at risk for pathological narcissism scored significantly lower on the RMET total score than participants who were not at risk for pathological narcissism. Participants at risk for psychopathy showed a significant reduction in the subjective experience of disgust, fear, sadness, and tenderness compared to participants who were not at risk for psychopathy.

Age, PaO2/FIO2, and Plateau Pressure Score: A Proposal for a Simple Outcome Score in Patients With the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

PubMed

Villar, Jesús; Ambrós, Alfonso; Soler, Juan Alfonso; Martínez, Domingo; Ferrando, Carlos; Solano, Rosario; Mosteiro, Fernando; Blanco, Jesús; Martín-Rodríguez, Carmen; Fernández, María Del Mar; López, Julia; Díaz-Domínguez, Francisco J; Andaluz-Ojeda, David; Merayo, Eleuterio; Pérez-Méndez, Lina; Fernández, Rosa Lidia; Kacmarek, Robert M

2016-07-01

Although there is general agreement on the characteristic features of the acute respiratory distress syndrome, we lack a scoring system that predicts acute respiratory distress syndrome outcome with high probability. Our objective was to develop an outcome score that clinicians could easily calculate at the bedside to predict the risk of death of acute respiratory distress syndrome patients 24 hours after diagnosis. A prospective, multicenter, observational, descriptive, and validation study. A network of multidisciplinary ICUs. Six-hundred patients meeting Berlin criteria for moderate and severe acute respiratory distress syndrome enrolled in two independent cohorts treated with lung-protective ventilation. None. Using individual demographic, pulmonary, and systemic data at 24 hours after acute respiratory distress syndrome diagnosis, we derived our prediction score in 300 acute respiratory distress syndrome patients based on stratification of variable values into tertiles, and validated in an independent cohort of 300 acute respiratory distress syndrome patients. Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. We found that a 9-point score based on patient's age, PaO2/FIO2 ratio, and plateau pressure at 24 hours after acute respiratory distress syndrome diagnosis was associated with death. Patients with a score greater than 7 had a mortality of 83.3% (relative risk, 5.7; 95% CI, 3.0-11.0), whereas patients with scores less than 5 had a mortality of 14.5% (p < 0.0000001). We confirmed the predictive validity of the score in a validation cohort. A simple 9-point score based on the values of age, PaO2/FIO2 ratio, and plateau pressure calculated at 24 hours on protective ventilation after acute respiratory distress syndrome diagnosis could be used in real time for rating prognosis of acute respiratory distress syndrome patients with high probability.

The association between surgical complications and the POSSUM score in head and neck reconstruction: a retrospective single-center study.

PubMed

Makino, Yohjiroh; Ishida, Katsuhiro; Kishi, Keita; Kodama, Hiroki; Miyawaki, Takeshi

2018-06-01

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) is widely used to predict surgical complications affecting various organs. However, there are few reports about objective evaluation methods for head and neck surgery. In this study, we retrospectively examined the association between POSSUM score and actual surgical complications of head and neck reconstruction surgery. In total, 711 patients who underwent head and neck reconstruction after cancer extirpation between January 2007 and January 2015 were studied. The predicted risk of complications was calculated using the POSSUM score and compared with the actual rate of perioperative complications. Perioperative complications occurred in 178 (25%) patients, comprising systemic complications in 52 (7%) patients, surgical site infection of the head and neck area in 78 (11%) patients and failure of the free flap in 55 (8.8%) patients. When patients were divided into a perioperative complication group and a no-complication group, a significant difference between the two groups was observed in the predicted postoperative rate calculated from the POSSUM score (p < .0001, odds ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.04). Furthermore, the cutoff value of the POSSUM score calculated from the receiver operating characteristic curve using Youden's index was 43.0%. POSSUM is a useful risk indicator for head and neck reconstruction surgery. It is possible to objectively calculate the prediction level using a standard assessment method without adding burden to any medical facility. Therefore, patients may be considered at high risk for perioperative complications when the POSSUM score is 43.0% or higher.

Development of a Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS) for Predicting Osteoporotic Fracture Risk: Analysis of Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service

PubMed Central

Jang, Eun Jin; Park, ByeongJu; Kim, Tae-Young; Shin, Soon-Ae

2016-01-01

Background Asian-specific prediction models for estimating individual risk of osteoporotic fractures are rare. We developed a Korean fracture risk prediction model using clinical risk factors and assessed validity of the final model. Methods A total of 718,306 Korean men and women aged 50–90 years were followed for 7 years in a national system-based cohort study. In total, 50% of the subjects were assigned randomly to the development dataset and 50% were assigned to the validation dataset. Clinical risk factors for osteoporotic fracture were assessed at the biennial health check. Data on osteoporotic fractures during the follow-up period were identified by ICD-10 codes and the nationwide database of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS). Results During the follow-up period, 19,840 osteoporotic fractures were reported (4,889 in men and 14,951 in women) in the development dataset. The assessment tool called the Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS) is comprised of a set of nine variables, including age, body mass index, recent fragility fracture, current smoking, high alcohol intake, lack of regular exercise, recent use of oral glucocorticoid, rheumatoid arthritis, and other causes of secondary osteoporosis. The KFRS predicted osteoporotic fractures over the 7 years. This score was validated using an independent dataset. A close relationship with overall fracture rate was observed when we compared the mean predicted scores after applying the KFRS with the observed risks after 7 years within each 10th of predicted risk. Conclusion We developed a Korean specific prediction model for osteoporotic fractures. The KFRS was able to predict risk of fracture in the primary population without bone mineral density testing and is therefore suitable for use in both clinical setting and self-assessment. The website is available at http://www.nhis.or.kr. PMID:27399597

Development of a Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS) for Predicting Osteoporotic Fracture Risk: Analysis of Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service.

PubMed

Kim, Ha Young; Jang, Eun Jin; Park, ByeongJu; Kim, Tae-Young; Shin, Soon-Ae; Ha, Yong-Chan; Jang, Sunmee

2016-01-01

Asian-specific prediction models for estimating individual risk of osteoporotic fractures are rare. We developed a Korean fracture risk prediction model using clinical risk factors and assessed validity of the final model. A total of 718,306 Korean men and women aged 50-90 years were followed for 7 years in a national system-based cohort study. In total, 50% of the subjects were assigned randomly to the development dataset and 50% were assigned to the validation dataset. Clinical risk factors for osteoporotic fracture were assessed at the biennial health check. Data on osteoporotic fractures during the follow-up period were identified by ICD-10 codes and the nationwide database of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS). During the follow-up period, 19,840 osteoporotic fractures were reported (4,889 in men and 14,951 in women) in the development dataset. The assessment tool called the Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS) is comprised of a set of nine variables, including age, body mass index, recent fragility fracture, current smoking, high alcohol intake, lack of regular exercise, recent use of oral glucocorticoid, rheumatoid arthritis, and other causes of secondary osteoporosis. The KFRS predicted osteoporotic fractures over the 7 years. This score was validated using an independent dataset. A close relationship with overall fracture rate was observed when we compared the mean predicted scores after applying the KFRS with the observed risks after 7 years within each 10th of predicted risk. We developed a Korean specific prediction model for osteoporotic fractures. The KFRS was able to predict risk of fracture in the primary population without bone mineral density testing and is therefore suitable for use in both clinical setting and self-assessment. The website is available at http://www.nhis.or.kr.

Development of a fuzzy-stochastic programming with Green Z-score criterion method for planning water resources systems with a trading mechanism.

PubMed

Zeng, X T; Huang, G H; Li, Y P; Zhang, J L; Cai, Y P; Liu, Z P; Liu, L R

2016-12-01

This study developed a fuzzy-stochastic programming with Green Z-score criterion (FSGZ) method for water resources allocation and water quality management with a trading-mechanism (WAQT) under uncertainties. FSGZ can handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, and it can also quantify objective/subjective fuzziness in the decision-making process. Risk-averse attitudes and robustness coefficient are joined to express the relationship between the expected target and outcome under various risk preferences of decision makers and systemic robustness. The developed method is applied to a real-world case of WAQT in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin in northwest China, where an effective mechanism (e.g., market trading) to simultaneously confront severely diminished water availability and degraded water quality is required. Results of water transaction amounts, water allocation patterns, pollution mitigation schemes, and system benefits under various scenarios are analyzed, which indicate that a trading-mechanism is a more sustainable method to manage water-environment crisis in the study region. Additionally, consideration of anthropogenic (e.g., a risk-averse attitude) and systemic factors (e.g., the robustness coefficient) can support the generation of a robust plan associated with risk control for WAQT when uncertainty is present. These findings assist local policy and decision makers to gain insights into water-environment capacity planning to balance the basin's social and economic growth with protecting the region's ecosystems.

Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

PubMed

Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

2017-09-01

We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prospective comparison of three risk scoring systems in non-variceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Thanapirom, Kessarin; Ridtitid, Wiriyaporn; Rerknimitr, Rungsun; Thungsuk, Rattikorn; Noophun, Phadet; Wongjitrat, Chatchawan; Luangjaru, Somchai; Vedkijkul, Padet; Lertkupinit, Comson; Poonsab, Swangphong; Ratanachu-ek, Thawee; Hansomburana, Piyathida; Pornthisarn, Bubpha; Thongbai, Thirada; Mahachai, Varocha; Treeprasertsuk, Sombat

2016-04-01

Data regarding the efficacy of the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), full Rockall score (FRS) and pre-endoscopic Rockall scores (PRS) in comparing non-variceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) are limited. Our aim was to determine the performance of these three risk scores in predicting the need for treatment, mortality, and re-bleeding among patients with non-variceal and variceal UGIB. During January, 2010 and September, 2011, patients with UGIB from 11 hospitals were prospectively enrolled. The GBS, FRS, and PRS were calculated. Discriminative ability for each score was assessed using the receiver operated characteristics curve (ROC) analysis. A total of 981 patients presented with acute UGIB, 225 patients (22.9%) had variceal UGIB. The areas under the ROC (AUC) of the GBS, FRS, and PRS for predicting the need for treatment were 0.77, 0.69, and 0.61 in non-variceal versus 0.66, 0.66, and 0.59 in variceal UGIB. The AUC for predicting mortality and re-bleeding during admission were 0.66, 0.80, and 0.76 in non-variceal versus 0.63, 0.57, and 0.63 in variceal UGIB. AUC score was not statistically significant for predicting need for therapy and clinical outcome in variceal UGIB. The GBS ≤ 2 and FRS ≤ 1 identified low-risk non-variceal UGIB patients for death and re-bleeding during hospitalization. In contrast to non-variceal UGIB, the GBS, FRS, and PRS were not precise scores for assessing the need for therapy, mortality, and re-bleeding during admission in variceal UGIB. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Optimal Utilization of Donor Grafts With Extended Criteria

PubMed Central

Cameron, Andrew M.; Ghobrial, R Mark; Yersiz, Hasan; Farmer, Douglas G.; Lipshutz, Gerald S.; Gordon, Sherilyn A.; Zimmerman, Michael; Hong, Johnny; Collins, Thomas E.; Gornbein, Jeffery; Amersi, Farin; Weaver, Michael; Cao, Carlos; Chen, Tony; Hiatt, Jonathan R.; Busuttil, Ronald W.

2006-01-01

Objective: Severely limited organ resources mandate maximum utilization of donor allografts for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). This work aimed to identify factors that impact survival outcomes for extended criteria donors (ECD) and developed an ECD scoring system to facilitate graft-recipient matching and optimize utilization of ECDs. Methods: Retrospective analysis of over 1000 primary adult OLTs at UCLA. Extended criteria (EC) considered included donor age (>55 years), donor hospital stay (>5 days), cold ischemia time (>10 hours), and warm ischemia time (>40 minutes). One point was assigned for each extended criterion. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for multivariate analysis. Results: Of 1153 allografts considered in the study, 568 organs exhibited no extended criteria (0 score), while 429, 135 and 21 donor allografts exhibited an EC score of 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Overall 1-year patient survival rates were 88%, 82%, 77% and 48% for recipients with EC scores of 0, 1, 2 and 3 respectively (P < 0.001). Adjusting for recipient age and urgency at the time of transplantation, multivariate analysis identified an ascending mortality risk ratio of 1.4 and 1.8 compared to a score of 0 for an EC score of 1, and 2 (P < 0.01) respectively. In contrast, an EC score of 3 was associated with a mortality risk ratio of 4.5 (P < 0.001). Further, advanced recipient age linearly increased the death hazard ratio, while an urgent recipient status increased the risk ratio of death by 50%. Conclusions: Extended criteria donors can be scored using readily available parameters. Optimizing perioperative variables and matching ECD allografts to appropriately selected recipients are crucial to maintain acceptable outcomes and represent a preferable alternative to both high waiting list mortality and to a potentially futile transplant that utilizes an ECD for a critically ill recipient. PMID:16772778

Neonatal systemic inflammation and the risk of low scores on measures of reading and mathematics achievement at age 10 years among children born extremely preterm.

PubMed

Leviton, Alan; Dammann, Olaf; Allred, Elizabeth N; Joseph, Robert M; Fichorova, Raina N; O'Shea, T Michael; Kuban, Karl C K

2018-05-01

Difficulties with reading and math occur more commonly among children born extremely preterm than among children born at term. Reasons for this are unclear. We measured the concentrations of 27 inflammatory-related and neurotrophic/angiogenic proteins (angio-neurotrophic proteins) in multiple blood specimens collected a week apart during the first postnatal month from 660 children born before the 28th week of gestation who at age 10 years had an IQ ≥ 70 and a Wechsler Individual Achievement Test 3rd edition (WIAT-III) assessment. We identified four groups of children, those who had a Z-score ≤ -1 on the Word Reading assessment only, on the Numerical Operations assessment only, on both of these assessments, and on neither, which served as the referent group. We then modeled the risk of each learning limitation associated with a top quartile concentration of each protein, and with high and lower concentrations of multiple proteins. The protein profile of low reading scores was confined to the third and fourth postnatal weeks when increased risks were associated with high concentrations of IL-8 and ICAM-1 in the presence of low concentrations of angio-neurotrophic proteins. The profile of low math scores was very similar, except it did not include ICAM-1. In contrast, the profile of low scores on both assessments was present in each of the first four postnatal weeks. The increased risks associated with high concentrations of TNF-α in the first two weeks and of IL-8 and ICAM-1 in the next two weeks were modulated down by high concentrations of angio-neurotrophic proteins. High concentrations of angio-neurotrophic proteins appear to reduce/moderate the risk of each learning limitation associated with systemic inflammation. The three categories of limitations have protein profiles with some similarities, and yet some differences, too. Copyright © 2018 ISDN. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bleeding Risk Profile in Patients With Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease.

PubMed

Baumann, Frederic; Husmann, Marc; Benenati, James F; Katzen, Barry T; Del Conde, Ian

2016-06-01

To assess the bleeding risk profile using the HAS-BLED score in patients with symptomatic peripheral artery disease (PAD). A post hoc analysis was performed using data from a series of 115 consecutive patients (mean age 72.4±11.4 years; 68 men) with symptomatic PAD undergoing endovascular revascularization. The endpoint of the study was to assess bleeding risk using the 9-point HAS-BLED score, which was previously validated in cohorts of patients with and without atrial fibrillation. For the purpose of this study, the low (0-1), intermediate (2), and high-risk (≥3) scores were stratified as low/intermediate risk (HAS-BLED <3) vs high risk (HAS-BLED ≥3). The mean HAS-BLED score was 2.76±1.16; 64 (56%) patients had a HAS-BLED score ≥3.0. Patients with PAD Rutherford category 5/6 ischemia had an even higher mean HAS-BLED score (3.20±1.12). Logistic regression analysis revealed aortoiliac or femoropopliteal segment involvement, chronic kidney disease, as well as Rutherford category 5/6, to be independent risk factors associated with a HAS-BLED score ≥3. Patients with PAD, especially those presenting with Rutherford category 5/6 ischemic symptoms, have high HAS-BLED scores, suggesting increased risk for major bleeding. Prospective clinical validation of the HAS-BLED score in patients with PAD may help with the risk-benefit assessment when prescribing antithrombotic therapy. © The Author(s) 2016.

Prophylactic Groin Wound Vacuum-assisted Therapy in Vascular Surgery Patients at Enhanced Risk for Postoperative Wound Infection.

PubMed

Pesonen, Luke O; Halloran, Brian G; Aziz, Abdulhameed

2018-01-01

Vascular groin wounds have higher than expected surgical site infection (SSI) rates and some patients are at enhanced risk. The Wiseman et al. paper suggests an objective scoring system that identifies patients at enhanced risk of postdischarge SSI. We hypothesize that prophylactic groin wound vacuum-assisted closure (VAC) therapy in enhanced risk patients will decrease SSI and readmission and the Wiseman model provides potential evidence that enhanced risk patients can be objectively identified. A single institution, retrospective analysis was conducted from January 2013 to September 2016 utilizing procedure codes to identify patients with wound VACs placed in the operating room. Two distinct groups were identified. The first was a wound complication patient group with 15 limbs (13 patients) with a groin wound VAC placed within 45 days postoperatively for groin wound complications. Eleven of these limbs had the VAC placed at readmission. The second group was a prophylactic patient group that included 8 limbs (7 patients) who received a VAC prophylactically placed in the enhanced risk wounds. These wounds were determined to be enhanced risk based on clinical criteria judged by the operating surgeon such as a large overhanging panniculus and/or one of several ongoing medical issues. We calculated a Wiseman score for all patients, determined total cost of the readmissions, and determined 30-day postsurgical SSI incidence for the prophylactic VAC group. Per the Wiseman scores, 9 limbs with postoperative complications were high risk and 3 limbs were moderate/high risk. Eleven limbs had a VAC placed at readmission with an average readmission cost of $8876.77. For the prophylactic group, 8 limbs were high risk with no observed postdischarge SSI in the first 30 days from surgery. The Wiseman scores showed close correlation between the retrospective high and moderate/high risk groups versus the prophylactic VAC group (31.5 ± 7.3 vs. 32 ± 5.5, P = 0.87). The Wiseman scores showed objective validation in the prognosis of anticipating groin wound breakdown. Our initial results suggest that prophylactic groin wound VAC placement for enhanced risk vascular surgery patients may proactively decrease wound morbidity, decrease readmission secondary to groin wound complications, and provide some cost benefit. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

PubMed Central

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

PubMed

Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

2015-03-01

In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Paediatric nutrition risk scores in clinical practice: children with inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Wiskin, A E; Owens, D R; Cornelius, V R; Wootton, S A; Beattie, R M

2012-08-01

There has been increasing interest in the use of nutrition risk assessment tools in paediatrics to identify those who need nutrition support. Four non-disease specific screening tools have been developed, although there is a paucity of data on their application in clinical practice and the degree of inter-tool agreement. The concurrent validity of four nutrition screening tools [Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Paediatrics (STAMP), Screening Tool for Risk On Nutritional status and Growth (STRONGkids), Paediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score (PYMS) and Simple Paediatric Nutrition Risk Score (PNRS)] was examined in 46 children with inflammatory bowel disease. Degree of malnutrition was determined by anthropometry alone using World Health Organization International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) criteria. There was good agreement between STAMP, STRONGkids and PNRS (kappa > 0.6) but there was only modest agreement between PYMS and the other scores (kappa = 0.3). No children scored low risk with STAMP, STRONGkids or PNRS; however, 23 children scored low risk with PYMS. There was no agreement between the risk tools and the degree of malnutrition based on anthropometric data (kappa < 0.1). Three children had anthropometry consistent with malnutrition and these were all scored high risk. Four children had body mass index SD scores < -2, one of which was scored at low nutrition risk. The relevance of nutrition screening tools for children with chronic disease is unclear. In addition, there is the potential to under recognise nutritional impairment (and therefore nutritional risk) in children with inflammatory bowel disease. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics © 2012 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Using Latent Class Analysis to Identify Academic and Behavioral Risk Status in Elementary Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Kathleen R.; Lembke, Erica S.; Reinke, Wendy M.

2016-01-01

Identifying classes of children on the basis of academic and behavior risk may have important implications for the allocation of intervention resources within Response to Intervention (RTI) and Multi-Tiered System of Support (MTSS) models. Latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted with a sample of 517 third grade students. Fall screening scores in…

Functional Movement Screen: Pain versus composite score and injury risk.

PubMed

Alemany, Joseph A; Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson; Anderson, Morgan K; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H

2017-11-01

The Functional Movement Screen (FMS™) has been used as a screening tool to determine musculoskeletal injury risk using composite scores based on movement quality and/or pain. However, no direct comparisons between movement quality and pain have been quantified. Retrospective injury data analysis. Male Soldiers (n=2154, 25.0±1.3years; 26.2±.7kg/m 2 ) completed the FMS (scored from 0 points (pain) to 3 points (no pain and perfect movement quality)) with injury data over the following six months. The FMS is seven movements. Injury data were collected six months after FMS completion. Sensitivity, specificity, receiver operator characteristics and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for pain occurrence and low (≤14 points) composite score. Risk, risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for injury risk. Pain was associated with slightly higher injury risk (RR=1.62) than a composite score of ≤14 points (RR=1.58). When comparing injury risk between those who scored a 1, 2 or 3 on each individual movement, no differences were found (except deep squat). However, Soldiers who experienced pain on any movement had a greater injury risk than those who scored 3 points for that movement (p<0.05). A progressive increase in the relative risk occurred as the number of movements in which pain occurrence increased, so did injury risk (p<0.01). Pain occurrence may be a stronger indicator of injury risk than a low composite score and provides a simpler method of evaluating injury risk compared to the full FMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Risk assessment of Pakistani individuals for diabetes (RAPID).

PubMed

Riaz, Musarrat; Basit, Abdul; Hydrie, Muhammad Zafar Iqbal; Shaheen, Fariha; Hussain, Akhtar; Hakeem, Rubina; Shera, Abdus Samad

2012-12-01

To develop and evaluate a risk score to predict people at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes in Pakistan. Cross sectional data regarding primary prevention of diabetes in Pakistan. Diabetes risk score was developed by using simple parameters namely age, waist circumference, and family history of diabetes. Odds ratios of the model were used to assign a score value for each variable and the diabetes risk score was calculated as the sum of those scores. We externally validated the score using two data from 1264 subjects and 856 subjects aged 25 years and above from two separate studies respectively. Validating this score using the first data from the second screening study gave an area under the receive operator characteristics curve [AROC] of 0.758. A cut point of 4 had a sensitivity of 47.0% and specificity of 88% and in the second data AROC is 0.7 with 44% sensitivity and 89% specificity. A simple diabetes risk score, based on a set of variables can be used for the identification of high risk individuals for early intervention to delay or prevent type 2 diabetes in Pakistani population. Copyright © 2012 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Construction of an Exome-Wide Risk Score for Schizophrenia Based on a Weighted Burden Test.

PubMed

Curtis, David

2018-01-01

Polygenic risk scores obtained as a weighted sum of associated variants can be used to explore association in additional data sets and to assign risk scores to individuals. The methods used to derive polygenic risk scores from common SNPs are not suitable for variants detected in whole exome sequencing studies. Rare variants, which may have major effects, are seen too infrequently to judge whether they are associated and may not be shared between training and test subjects. A method is proposed whereby variants are weighted according to their frequency, their annotations and the genes they affect. A weighted sum across all variants provides an individual risk score. Scores constructed in this way are used in a weighted burden test and are shown to be significantly different between schizophrenia cases and controls using a five-way cross-validation procedure. This approach represents a first attempt to summarise exome sequence variation into a summary risk score, which could be combined with risk scores from common variants and from environmental factors. It is hoped that the method could be developed further. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/University College London.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital

PubMed Central

Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W.; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

2014-01-01

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions. PMID:25404329

Predictive accuracy of combined genetic and environmental risk scores.

PubMed

Dudbridge, Frank; Pashayan, Nora; Yang, Jian

2018-02-01

The substantial heritability of most complex diseases suggests that genetic data could provide useful risk prediction. To date the performance of genetic risk scores has fallen short of the potential implied by heritability, but this can be explained by insufficient sample sizes for estimating highly polygenic models. When risk predictors already exist based on environment or lifestyle, two key questions are to what extent can they be improved by adding genetic information, and what is the ultimate potential of combined genetic and environmental risk scores? Here, we extend previous work on the predictive accuracy of polygenic scores to allow for an environmental score that may be correlated with the polygenic score, for example when the environmental factors mediate the genetic risk. We derive common measures of predictive accuracy and improvement as functions of the training sample size, chip heritabilities of disease and environmental score, and genetic correlation between disease and environmental risk factors. We consider simple addition of the two scores and a weighted sum that accounts for their correlation. Using examples from studies of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer, we show that improvements in discrimination are generally small but reasonable degrees of reclassification could be obtained with current sample sizes. Correlation between genetic and environmental scores has only minor effects on numerical results in realistic scenarios. In the longer term, as the accuracy of polygenic scores improves they will come to dominate the predictive accuracy compared to environmental scores. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Predictive accuracy of combined genetic and environmental risk scores

PubMed Central

Pashayan, Nora; Yang, Jian

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT The substantial heritability of most complex diseases suggests that genetic data could provide useful risk prediction. To date the performance of genetic risk scores has fallen short of the potential implied by heritability, but this can be explained by insufficient sample sizes for estimating highly polygenic models. When risk predictors already exist based on environment or lifestyle, two key questions are to what extent can they be improved by adding genetic information, and what is the ultimate potential of combined genetic and environmental risk scores? Here, we extend previous work on the predictive accuracy of polygenic scores to allow for an environmental score that may be correlated with the polygenic score, for example when the environmental factors mediate the genetic risk. We derive common measures of predictive accuracy and improvement as functions of the training sample size, chip heritabilities of disease and environmental score, and genetic correlation between disease and environmental risk factors. We consider simple addition of the two scores and a weighted sum that accounts for their correlation. Using examples from studies of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer, we show that improvements in discrimination are generally small but reasonable degrees of reclassification could be obtained with current sample sizes. Correlation between genetic and environmental scores has only minor effects on numerical results in realistic scenarios. In the longer term, as the accuracy of polygenic scores improves they will come to dominate the predictive accuracy compared to environmental scores. PMID:29178508

Association of Risk Estimates of Three Different Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Tools with Carotid Intima Media Thickness in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.

PubMed

Herath, Herath Mudiyanselage Meththananda; Weerarathna, Thilak Priyantha; Dulanjalee, Ranasinghe Bethmi Arachige Thilini; Jayawardana, Madumekala Rupasinghe; Edirisingha, Udara Priyadarshani; Rathnayake, Madushanka

2016-07-01

Risk assessment tools used to calculate the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes study (UKPDS) risk engine and the World Health Organization (WHO) risk score have not been tested on their ability to detect subclinical atherosclerosis in most developing countries. To study the association between the calculated CVD risk scores using each of these tools and Carotid Intima Medial Thickness (CIMT), a surrogate marker of atherosclerosis, in a group of patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in Sri Lanka. We calculated CVD risk scores of 68 randomly selected patients with T2DM with no history or symptoms of CVD and measured their CIMT using B-mode ultrasonography (USS). Carotid USS was considered positive when the maximum carotid IMT was 0.9mm or when arteriosclerotic plaques were detected. The 10-year CVD risk was calculated using the FRS, the UKPDS risk engine and the WHO risk score. Pearson correlation was used to study the association between CVD risk scores with CIMT. Of the 68 patients studied, 50% were males and their mean age (SD) was 56.9 (±9.6) years. The mean age at onset and duration of diabetes were 44.3(±9.1) and 12.2(±7.6) years respectively. Of the scoring methods, UKPDS tool had weak, but significantly positive (r = 0.26, p < 0.05) and FRS had positive but not significant association (r= 0. 21) with CIMT. There was a negative association between CIMT and WHO risk score (r= - 0.07). Of the three CVD risk assessment tools, both UKPDS risk engine and FRS have almost equal ability (former being marginally superior) in predicting underlying atherosclerotic vascular disease in patients with T2DM. Negative association of the WHO risk score with CIMT argues against its utility for CVD screening. These findings highlight the need for developing more sensitive and reliable CVD risk assessment tools for developing countries.

Association of Risk Estimates of Three Different Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Tools with Carotid Intima Media Thickness in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Weerarathna, Thilak Priyantha; Dulanjalee, Ranasinghe Bethmi Arachige Thilini; Jayawardana, Madumekala Rupasinghe; Edirisingha, Udara Priyadarshani; Rathnayake, Madushanka

2016-01-01

Introduction Risk assessment tools used to calculate the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes study (UKPDS) risk engine and the World Health Organization (WHO) risk score have not been tested on their ability to detect subclinical atherosclerosis in most developing countries. Aim To study the association between the calculated CVD risk scores using each of these tools and Carotid Intima Medial Thickness (CIMT), a surrogate marker of atherosclerosis, in a group of patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in Sri Lanka. Materials and Methods We calculated CVD risk scores of 68 randomly selected patients with T2DM with no history or symptoms of CVD and measured their CIMT using B-mode ultrasonography (USS). Carotid USS was considered positive when the maximum carotid IMT was 0.9mm or when arteriosclerotic plaques were detected. The 10-year CVD risk was calculated using the FRS, the UKPDS risk engine and the WHO risk score. Pearson correlation was used to study the association between CVD risk scores with CIMT. Results Of the 68 patients studied, 50% were males and their mean age (SD) was 56.9 (±9.6) years. The mean age at onset and duration of diabetes were 44.3(±9.1) and 12.2(±7.6) years respectively. Of the scoring methods, UKPDS tool had weak, but significantly positive (r = 0.26, p < 0.05) and FRS had positive but not significant association (r= 0. 21) with CIMT. There was a negative association between CIMT and WHO risk score (r= - 0.07). Conclusion Of the three CVD risk assessment tools, both UKPDS risk engine and FRS have almost equal ability (former being marginally superior) in predicting underlying atherosclerotic vascular disease in patients with T2DM. Negative association of the WHO risk score with CIMT argues against its utility for CVD screening. These findings highlight the need for developing more sensitive and reliable CVD risk assessment tools for developing countries. PMID:27630880

Identifying Patients at Higher Risk of Prolonged Air Leak After Lung Resection.

PubMed

Gilbert, Sebastien; Maghera, Sonam; Seely, Andrew J; Maziak, Donna E; Shamji, Farid M; Sundaresan, Sudhir R; Villeneuve, Patrick J

2016-11-01

Predictive models of prolonged air leak have relied on information not always available preoperatively (eg, extent of resection, pleural adhesions). Our objective was to construct a model to identify patients at increased risk of prolonged air leak using preoperative factors exclusively. From 2012 to 2014, data on consecutive patients undergoing pulmonary resection were collected prospectively. Prolonged air leak was defined as lasting longer than 7 days and requiring hospitalization. Factors associated with the primary outcome (p < 0.2) were included in a multivariate model. Regression coefficients were used to develop a weighted risk score for prolonged air leak. Of 225 patients, 8% (18/225) experienced a prolonged air leak. Male gender (p = 0.08), smoking history (p = 0.03), body mass index (BMI) 25 or below (p < 0.01), Medical Research Council (MRC) dyspnea score above 1 (p = 0.06), and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide below 80% (Dlco) (p = 0.01) were selected for inclusion in the final model. Weighted scores were male gender (1 point), BMI 25 or below (0.5 point), smoker (2 points), Dlco% below 80% (2 points), and MRC dyspnea score above 1 (1 point). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.7 to 0.9]. An air leak score above 4 points offered the best combination of sensitivity (83% [95% CI = 58 to 96]) and specificity (65% [95% CI = 58 to 71]). A subgroup of lung resection patients at higher risk for a prolonged air leak can be effectively identified with the use of widely available, preoperative factors. The proposed scoring system is simple, is clinically relevant to the informed consent, and allows preoperative patient selection for interventions to reduce the risk of prolonged air leak. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficacy of ACL injury risk screening methods in identifying high-risk landing patterns during a sport-specific task.

PubMed

Fox, A S; Bonacci, J; McLean, S G; Saunders, N

2017-05-01

Screening methods sensitive to movement strategies that increase anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) loads are likely to be effective in identifying athletes at-risk of ACL injury. Current ACL injury risk screening methods are yet to be evaluated for their ability to identify athletes' who exhibit high-risk lower limb mechanics during sport-specific maneuvers associated with ACL injury occurrences. The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of two ACL injury risk screening methods in identifying high-risk lower limb mechanics during a sport-specific landing task. Thirty-two female athletes were screened using the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS) and Tuck Jump Assessment. Participants' also completed a sport-specific landing task, during which three-dimensional kinematic and kinetic data were collected. One-dimensional statistical parametric mapping was used to examine the relationships between screening method scores, and the three-dimensional hip and knee joint rotation and moment data from the sport-specific landing. Higher LESS scores were associated with reduced knee flexion from 30 to 57 ms after initial contact (P = 0.003) during the sport-specific landing; however, no additional relationships were found. These findings suggest the LESS and Tuck Jump Assessment may have minimal applicability in identifying athletes' who exhibit high-risk landing postures in the sport-specific task examined. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Venous thromboembolism prevention guidelines for medical inpatients: mind the (implementation) gap.

PubMed

Maynard, Greg; Jenkins, Ian H; Merli, Geno J

2013-10-01

Hospital-associated nonsurgical venous thromboembolism (VTE) is an important problem addressed by new guidelines from the American College of Physicians (ACP) and American College of Chest Physicians (AT9). Narrative review and critique. Both guidelines discount asymptomatic VTE outcomes and caution against overprophylaxis, but have different methodologies and estimates of risk/benefit. Guideline complexity and lack of consensus on VTE risk assessment contribute to an implementation gap. Methods to estimate prophylaxis benefit have significant limitations because major trials included mostly screening-detected events. AT9 relies on a single Italian cohort study to conclude that those with a Padua score ≥4 have a very high VTE risk, whereas patients with a score <4 (60% of patients) have a very small risk. However, the cohort population has less comorbidity than US inpatients, and over 1% of patients with a score of 3 suffered pulmonary emboli. The ACP guideline does not endorse any risk-assessment model. AT9 includes the Padua model and Caprini point-based system for nonsurgical inpatients and surgical inpatients, respectively, but there is no evidence they are more effective than simpler risk-assessment models. New VTE prevention guidelines provide varied guidance on important issues including risk assessment. If Padua is used, a threshold of 3, as well as 4, should be considered. Simpler VTE risk-assessment models may be superior to complicated point-based models in environments without sophisticated clinical decision support. © 2013 Society of Hospital Medicine.

A refined risk score for acute GVHD that predicts response to initial therapy, survival and transplant-related mortality

PubMed Central

MacMillan, Margaret L.; Robin, Marie; Harris, Andrew C.; DeFor, Todd E.; Martin, Paul J.; Alousi, Amin; Ho, Vincent T.; Bolaños-Meade, Javier; Ferrara, James L.M.; Jones, Richard; Arora, Mukta; Blazar, Bruce R.; Holtan, Shernan G.; Jacobsohn, David; Pasquini, Marcelo; Socie, Gerard; Antin, Joseph H.; Levine, John E.; Weisdorf, Daniel J.

2015-01-01

To develop a novel acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) Risk Score, we examined the GVHD clinical stage and grade of 1723 patients at the onset of treatment with systemic steroids. Using clinical grouping, descriptive statistics and recursive partitioning, we identified poorly responsive, high-risk (HR) acute GVHD by the number of involved organs and severity of GVHD at onset. The overall response [(complete response/partial response (CR/PR)] rate 28 days after initiation of steroid therapy for acute GVHD was lower in the 269 patients with HR-GVHD than in the 1454 patients with standard risk (SR)-GVHD [44% (95% CI 38–50%) vs. 68% (95% CI 66–70%), p<0.001. Patients with HR-GVHD were less likely to respond at day 28 [odds ratio (OR), 0.3, 95% CI 0.2–0.4, p<0.001], and had higher risks of mortality [relative risk (RR) 2.1, 95% CI 1.7–2.6, P<0.001] and transplant-related mortality (RR 2.5, 95% CI 2.0–3.2%, p<0.001) compared to patients with SR-GVHD. This refined definition of acute GVHD risk is a better predictor of response, survival and transplant-related mortality than other published acute GVHD risk scores. Patients with HR-GVHD are candidates for studies investigating new treatment approaches. Likewise, patients with SR-GVHD are candidates for studies investigating less toxic therapy. PMID:25585275

Prognostic discrimination for early chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia in imatinib era: comparison of Sokal, Euro, and EUTOS scores in Korean population.

PubMed

Yahng, Seung-Ah; Jang, Eun-Jung; Choi, Soo-Young; Lee, Sung-Eun; Kim, Soo-Hyun; Kim, Dong-Wook

2014-08-01

Beyond the conventional Sokal and Euro scores, a new prognostic risk classification, based on the European Treatment Outcome Study (EUTOS), has been developed to predict the outcome of treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). In the present study, each risk score was validated by various endpoints in 206 Korean patients with early chronic-phase CML treated with up-front standard dose imatinib. In our analysis, all three scores were found to be valid. The 5-year event-free survival (EFS) was significantly discriminated using Sokal (P = 0.002), Euro (P = 0.003), and EUTOS (P = 0.029), with the worst probability by Euro high-risk (62 vs. 49 vs. 67 %) and better EFS in Sokal low-risk (89 vs. 86 vs. 82 %). Combining all scores identified 6 % of all patients having homogeneous high-risk with distinctively worse outcomes (5-year EFS of 41 %, cumulative complete cytogenetic response rate of 56 %, and cumulative major molecular response rate of 27 %), whereas the group of discordance in risk scores (60 %) had similar results to those of intermediate-risk groups of Sokal and Euro scores. Combining all risk scores for baseline risk assessment may be useful in clinical practice for identifying groups of patients who may benefit from treatment initiation with a more potent TKI among the currently available first-line TKIs.

Mortality Risk After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: Analysis of the Predictive Accuracy of the Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry Risk Assessment Model.

PubMed

Codner, Pablo; Malick, Waqas; Kouz, Remi; Patel, Amisha; Chen, Cheng-Han; Terre, Juan; Landes, Uri; Vahl, Torsten Peter; George, Isaac; Nazif, Tamim; Kirtane, Ajay J; Khalique, Omar K; Hahn, Rebecca T; Leon, Martin B; Kodali, Susheel

2018-05-08

Risk assessment tools currently used to predict mortality in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were designed for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We aim to assess the accuracy of the TAVI dedicated American College of Cardiology / Transcatheter Valve Therapies (ACC/TVT) risk score in predicting mortality outcomes. Consecutive patients (n=1038) undergoing TAVI at a single institution from 2014 to 2016 were included. The ACC/TVT registry mortality risk score, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons - Patient Reported Outcomes (STS-PROM) score and the EuroSCORE II were calculated for all patients. In hospital and 30-day all-cause mortality rates were 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The ACC/TVT risk stratification tool scored higher for patients who died in-hospital than in those who survived the index hospitalization (6.4 ± 4.6 vs. 3.5 ± 1.6, p = 0.03; respectively). The ACC/TVT score showed a high level of discrimination, C-index for in-hospital mortality 0.74, 95% CI [0.59 - 0.88]. There were no significant differences between the performance of the ACC/TVT registry risk score, the EuroSCORE II and the STS-PROM for in hospital and 30-day mortality rates. The ACC/TVT registry risk model is a dedicated tool to aid in the prediction of in-hospital mortality risk after TAVI.

Modern risk stratification in coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Ginghina, C; Bejan, I; Ceck, C D

2011-11-14

The prevalence and impact of cardiovascular diseases in the world are growing. There are 2 million deaths due to cardiovascular disease each year in the European Union; the main cause of death being the coronary heart disease responsible for 16% of deaths in men and 15% in women. Prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Romania is estimated at 7 million people, of which 2.8 million have ischemic heart disease. In this epidemiological context, risk stratification is required for individualization of therapeutic strategies for each patient. The continuing evolution of the diagnosis and treatment techniques combines personalized medicine with the trend of therapeutic management leveling, based on guidelines and consensus, which are in constant update. The guidelines used in clinical practice have involved risk stratification and identification of patient groups in whom the risk-benefit ratio of using new diagnostic and therapeutic techniques has a positive value. Presence of several risk factors may indicate a more important total risk than the presence / significant increase from normal values of a single risk factor. Modern trends in risk stratification of patients with coronary heart disease are polarized between the use of simple data versus complex scores, traditional data versus new risk factors, generally valid scores versus personalized scores, depending on patient characteristics, type of coronary artery disease, with impact on the suggested therapy. All known information and techniques can be integrated in a complex system of risk assessment. The current trend in risk assessment is to identify coronary artery disease in early forms, before clinical manifestation, and to guide therapy, particularly in patients with intermediate risk, which can be classified in another class of risk based on new obtained information.

Evaluation of paediatric cardiosurgical model in Croatia by using the Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment for congenital cardiac surgery-1 method.

PubMed

Dilber, Daniel; Malcic, Ivan

2010-08-01

The Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method were developed and used to compare outcomes of congenital cardiac surgery. Both methods were used to compare results of procedures performed on our patients in Croatian cardiosurgical centres and results of procedures were taken abroad. The study population consisted of all patients with congenital cardiac disease born to Croatian residents between 1 October, 2002 and 1 October, 2007 undergoing a cardiovascular operation during this period. Of the 556 operations, the Aristotle basic complexity score could be assigned to 553 operations and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method to 536 operations. Procedures were performed in two institutions in Croatia and seven institutions abroad. The average complexity for cardiac procedures performed in Croatia was significantly lower. With both systems, along with the increase in complexity, there is also an increase in mortality before discharge and postoperative length of stay. Only after the adjustment for complexity there are marked differences in mortality and occurrence of postoperative complications. Both, the Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method were predictive of in-hospital mortality as well as prolonged postoperative length to stay, and can be used as a tool in our country to evaluate a cardiosurgical model and recognise potential problems.

Prognostic scoring systems for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in a population-based setting: a report from the Swedish MDS register.

PubMed

Moreno Berggren, Daniel; Folkvaljon, Yasin; Engvall, Marie; Sundberg, Johan; Lambe, Mats; Antunovic, Petar; Garelius, Hege; Lorenz, Fryderyk; Nilsson, Lars; Rasmussen, Bengt; Lehmann, Sören; Hellström-Lindberg, Eva; Jädersten, Martin; Ejerblad, Elisabeth

2018-06-01

The myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) have highly variable outcomes and prognostic scoring systems are important tools for risk assessment and to guide therapeutic decisions. However, few population-based studies have compared the value of the different scoring systems. With data from the nationwide Swedish population-based MDS register we validated the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), revised IPSS (IPSS-R) and the World Health Organization (WHO) Classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS). We also present population-based data on incidence, clinical characteristics including detailed cytogenetics and outcome from the register. The study encompassed 1329 patients reported to the register between 2009 and 2013, 14% of these had therapy-related MDS (t-MDS). Based on the MDS register, the yearly crude incidence of MDS in Sweden was 2·9 per 100 000 inhabitants. IPSS-R had a significantly better prognostic power than IPSS (P < 0·001). There was a trend for better prognostic power of IPSS-R compared to WPSS (P = 0·05) and for WPSS compared to IPSS (P = 0·07). IPSS-R was superior to both IPSS and WPSS for patients aged ≤70 years. Patients with t-MDS had a worse outcome compared to de novo MDS (d-MDS), however, the validity of the prognostic scoring systems was comparable for d-MDS and t-MDS. In conclusion, population-based studies are important to validate prognostic scores in a 'real-world' setting. In our nationwide cohort, the IPSS-R showed the best predictive power. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Underestimation of Risk of Carotid Subclinical Atherosclerosis by Cardiovascular Risk Scores in Patients with Psoriatic Arthritis.

PubMed

Shen, Jiayun; Lam, Steven H; Shang, Qing; Wong, Chun-Kwok; Li, Edmund K; Wong, Priscilla; Kun, Emily W; Cheng, Isaac T; Li, Martin; Li, Tena K; Zhu, Tracy Y; Lee, Jack Jock-Wai; Chang, Mimi; Lee, Alex Pui-Wai; Tam, Lai-Shan

2018-02-01

To test the performances of established cardiovascular (CV) risk scores in discriminating subclinical atherosclerosis (SCA) in patients with psoriatic arthritis. These scores were calculated: Framingham risk score (FRS), QRISK2, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk algorithm (ASCVD) from the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association, and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)-recommended modified versions (by 1.5 multiplication factor, m-). Carotid intima-media thickness > 0.9 mm and/or the presence of plaque determined by ultrasound were classified as SCA+. We recruited 146 patients [49.4 ± 10.2 yrs, male: 90 (61.6%)], of whom 142/137/128/118 patients were eligible to calculate FRS/QRISK2/SCORE/ASCVD. Further, 62 (42.5%) patients were SCA+ and were significantly older, with higher systolic blood pressure and higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (all p < 0.05). All CV risk scores were significantly higher in patients with SCA+ [FRS: 7.8 (3.9-16.5) vs 2.7 (1.1-7.8), p < 0.001; QRISK2: 5.5 (3.1-10.2) vs 2.9 (1.2-6.3), p < 0.001; SCORE: 1 (0-2) vs 0 (0-1), p < 0.001; ASCVD: 5.6 (2.6-12.4) vs 3.4 (1.4-6.1), p = 0.001]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed moderate goodness of fit for the 4 CV scores (p ranged from 0.087 to 0.686). However, of the patients with SCA+, those identified as high risk were only 44.1% (by FRS > 10%), 1.8% (QRISK2 > 20%), 10.9% (SCORE > 5%), and 43.6% (ASCVD > 7.5%). By applying the EULAR multiplication factor, 50.8%/14.3%/14.5%/54.5% of the patients with SCA+ were identified as high risk by m-FRS/m-QRISK2/m-SCORE/m-ASCVD, respectively. EULAR modification increased the sensitivity of FRS and ASCVD in discriminating SCA+ from 44% to 51%, and 44% to 55%, respectively. All CV risk scores underestimated the SCA+ risk. EULAR-recommended modification improved the sensitivity of FRS and ASCVD only to a moderate level.

The value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for refining stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation with a CHADS2 score 0-1: a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock; Lip, Gregory Y H

2012-06-01

North American and European guidelines on atrial fibrillation (AF) are conflicting regarding the classification of patients at low/intermediate risk of stroke. We aimed to investigate if the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved risk stratification of AF patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1. Using individual-level-linkage of nationwide Danish registries 1997-2008, we identified patients discharged with AF having a CHADS2 score of 0-1 and not treated with vitamin K antagonist or heparin. In patients with a CHADS2 score of 0, 1, and 0-1, rates of stroke/ thromboembolism were determined according to CHA2DS2-VASc score, and the risk associated with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated in Cox regression models adjusted for year of inclusion and antiplatelet therapy. The value of adding the extra CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors to the CHADS2 score was evaluated by c-statistics, Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI). We included 47,576 patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1, from these 7,536 (15.8%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=0, 10,062 (21.2%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=1, 14,310 (30.1%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=2, 14,188 (29.8%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=3, and 1,480 (3.1%) were CHA2DS2-VASc score=4. Of the cohort with a CHADS2 score of 0-1, the stroke/thromboembolism rate per 100 person-years increased with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score (95% confidence interval): 0.84 (0.65-1.08), 1.79 (1.53-2.09), 3.67 (3.34-4.03), 5.75 (5.33-6.21), and 8.18 (6.68-10.02) at one year follow-up with CHA2DS2-VASc scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Patients with a CHADS2 score=0 were not all 'low risk', with one-year event rates ranging from 0.84 (CHA2DS2-VASc score=0) to 3.2 (CHA2DS2-VASc score=3). Results from Cox regression analyses, NRI, and IDI confirmed the improved predictive ability of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in the AF patients who have a CHADS2 score of 0-1. In conclusion, the CHA2DS2-VASc provides critical information on risk of stroke in AF patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1 that can aid a decision of using anticoagulation. Even in patients categorised as 'low risk' using a CHADS2 score=0, the CHA2DS2-VASc score significantly improved the predictive value of the CHADS2 score alone and a CHA2DS2-VASc score=0 could clearly identify 'truly low risk' subjects. Use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score would significantly improve classification of AF patients at low and intermediate risk of stroke, compared to the commonly used CHADS2 score.

Common Clinical Practice versus new PRIM Score in Predicting Coronary Heart Disease Risk

PubMed Central

Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Schnohr, Peter; Jensen, Gorm B.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.

2011-01-01

Objectives To compare the new Patient Rule Induction Method(PRIM) Score and common clinical practice with the Framingham Point Score for classification of individuals with respect to coronary heart disease(CHD) risk. Methods and Results PRIM Score and the Framingham Point Score were estimated for 11,444 participants from the Copenhagen City Heart Study. Gender specific cumulative incidences and 10 year absolute CHD risks were estimated for subsets defined by age, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein(HDL) cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking categories. PRIM defined seven mutually exclusive subsets in women and men, with cumulative incidences of CHD from 0.01 to 0.22 in women, and from 0.03 to 0.26 in men. PRIM versus Framingham Point Score found 11% versus 4% of all women, and 31% versus 35% of all men to have 10 year CHD risks >20%. Among women ≥65 years with hypertension and/or with diabetes, 10 year CHD risk >20% was found for 100% with PRIM scoring but for only 18% with the Framingham Point Score. Conclusion Compared to the PRIM Score, common clinical practice with the Framingham Point Score underestimates CHD risk in women, especially in women ≥65 years with hypertension and/or with diabetes. PMID:20728887

Gender, TIMI risk score and in-hospital mortality in STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI: results from the Belgian STEMI registry.

PubMed

Gevaert, Sofie A; De Bacquer, Dirk; Evrard, Patrick; Convens, Carl; Dubois, Philippe; Boland, Jean; Renard, Marc; Beauloye, Christophe; Coussement, Patrick; De Raedt, Herbert; de Meester, Antoine; Vandecasteele, Els; Vranckx, Pascal; Sinnaeve, Peter R; Claeys, Marc J

2014-01-22

The relationship between the predictive performance of the TIMI risk score for STEMI and gender has not been evaluated in the setting of primary PCI (pPCI). Here, we compared in-hospital mortality and predictive performance of the TIMI risk score between Belgian women and men undergoing pPCI. In-hospital mortality was analysed in 8,073 (1,920 [23.8%] female and 6,153 [76.2%] male patients) consecutive pPCI-treated STEMI patients, included in the prospective, observational Belgian STEMI registry (January 2007 to February 2011). A multivariable logistic regression model, including TIMI risk score variables and gender, evaluated differences in in-hospital mortality between men and women. The predictive performance of the TIMI risk score according to gender was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Mortality rates for TIMI scores in women and men were compared. Female patients were older, had more comorbidities and longer ischaemic times. Crude in-hospital mortality was 10.1% in women vs. 4.9% in men (OR 2.2; 95% CI: 1.82-2.66, p<0.001). When adjusting for TIMI risk score variables, mortality remained higher in women (OR 1.47, 95% CI: 1.15-1.87, p=0.002). The TIMI risk score provided a good predictive discrimination and calibration in women as well as in men (c-statistic=0.84 [95% CI: 0.809-0.866], goodness-of-fit p=0.53 and c-statistic=0.89 [95% CI: 0.873-0.907], goodness-of-fit p=0.13, respectively), but mortality prediction for TIMI scores was better in men (p=0.02 for TIMI score x gender interaction). In the Belgian STEMI registry, pPCI-treated women had a higher in-hospital mortality rate even after correcting for TIMI risk score variables. The TIMI risk score was effective in predicting in-hospital mortality but performed slightly better in men. The database was registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00727623).

FIASCO II failure to achieve a satisfactory cardiac outcome study: the elimination of system errors.

PubMed

Farid, Shakil; Page, Aravinda; Jenkins, David; Jones, Mark T; Freed, Darren; Nashef, Samer A M

2013-07-01

Death in low-risk cardiac surgical patients provides a simple and accessible method by which modifiable causes of death can be identified. In the first FIASCO study published in 2009, local potentially modifiable causes of preventable death in low-risk patients with a logistic EuroSCORE of 0-2 undergoing cardiac surgery were inadequate myocardial protection and lack of clarity in the chain of responsibility. As a result, myocardial protection was improved, and a formalized system introduced to ensure clarity of the chain of responsibility in the care of all cardiac surgical patients. The purpose of the current study was to re-audit outcomes in low-risk patients to see if improvements have been achieved. Patients with a logistic EuroSCORE of 0-2 who had cardiac surgery from January 2006 to August 2012 were included. Data were prospectively collected and retrospectively analysed. The case notes of patients who died in hospital were subject to internal and external review and classified according to preventability. Two thousand five hundred and forty-nine patients with a logistic EuroSCORE of 0-2 underwent cardiac surgery during the study period. Seven deaths occurred in truly low-risk patients, giving a mortality of 0.27%. Of the seven, three were considered preventable and four non-preventable. Mortality was marginally lower than in our previous study (0.37%), and no death occurred as a result of inadequate myocardial protection or communication failures. We postulate that the regular study of such events in all institutions may unmask systemic errors that can be remedied to prevent or reduce future occurrences. We encourage all units to use this methodology to detect any similarly modifiable factors in their practice.

Comparing the performance of English mental health providers in achieving patient outcomes.

PubMed

Moran, Valerie; Jacobs, Rowena

2015-09-01

Evidence on provider payment systems that incorporate patient outcomes is limited for mental health care. In England, funding for mental health care services is changing to a prospective payment system with a future objective of linking some part of provider payment to outcomes. This research examines performance of mental health providers offering hospital and community services, in order to investigate if some are delivering better outcomes. Outcomes are measured using the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS) - a clinician-rated routine outcome measure (CROM) mandated for national use. We use data from the Mental Health Minimum Data Set (MHMDS) - a dataset on specialist mental health care with national coverage - for the years 2011/12 and 2012/13 with a final estimation sample of 305,960 observations with follow-up HoNOS scores. A hierarchical ordered probit model is used and outcomes are risk adjusted with independent variables reflecting demographic, need, severity and social indicators. A hierarchical linear model is also estimated with the follow-up total HoNOS score as the dependent variable and the baseline total HoNOS score included as a risk-adjuster. Provider performance is captured by a random effect that is quantified using Empirical Bayes methods. We find that worse outcomes are associated with severity and better outcomes with older age and social support. After adjusting outcomes for various risk factors, variations in performance are still evident across providers. This suggests that if the intention to link some element of provider payment to outcomes becomes a reality, some providers may gain financially whilst others may lose. The paper contributes to the limited literature on risk adjustment of outcomes and performance assessment of providers in mental health in the context of prospective activity-based payment systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

External Validation of Risk Scores for Major Bleeding in a Population-Based Cohort of Transient Ischemic Attack and Ischemic Stroke Patients.

PubMed

Hilkens, Nina A; Li, Linxin; Rothwell, Peter M; Algra, Ale; Greving, Jacoba P

2018-03-01

The S 2 TOP-BLEED score may help to identify patients at high risk of bleeding on antiplatelet drugs after a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. The score was derived on trial populations, and its performance in a real-world setting is unknown. We aimed to externally validate the S 2 TOP-BLEED score for major bleeding in a population-based cohort and to compare its performance with other risk scores for bleeding. We studied risk of bleeding in 2072 patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke on antiplatelet agents in the population-based OXVASC (Oxford Vascular Study) according to 3 scores: S 2 TOP-BLEED, REACH, and Intracranial-B 2 LEED 3 S. Performance was assessed with C statistics and calibration plots. During 8302 patient-years of follow-up, 117 patients had a major bleed. The S 2 TOP-BLEED score showed a C statistic of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.73) and accurate calibration for 3-year risk of major bleeding. The S 2 TOP-BLEED score was much more predictive of fatal bleeding than nonmajor bleeding (C statistics 0.77; 95% CI, 0.69-0.85 and 0.50; 95% CI, 0.44-0.58). The REACH score had a C statistic of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.58-0.69) for major bleeding and the Intracranial-B 2 LEED 3 S score a C statistic of 0.60 (95% CI, 0.51-0.70) for intracranial bleeding. The ratio of ischemic events versus bleeds decreased across risk groups of bleeding from 6.6:1 in the low-risk group to 1.8:1 in the high-risk group. The S 2 TOP-BLEED score shows modest performance in a population-based cohort of patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. Although bleeding risks were associated with risks of ischemic events, risk stratification may still be useful to identify a subgroup of patients at particularly high risk of bleeding, in whom preventive measures are indicated. © 2018 The Authors.

Using a genetic/clinical risk score to stop smoking (GeTSS): randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Nichols, John A A; Grob, Paul; Kite, Wendy; Williams, Peter; de Lusignan, Simon

2017-10-23

As genetic tests become cheaper, the possibility of their widespread availability must be considered. This study involves a risk score for lung cancer in smokers that is roughly 50% genetic (50% clinical criteria). The risk score has been shown to be effective as a smoking cessation motivator in hospital recruited subjects (not actively seeking cessation services). This was an RCT set in a United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS) smoking cessation clinic. Smokers were identified from medical records. Subjects that wanted to participate were randomised to a test group that was administered a gene-based risk test and given a lung cancer risk score, or a control group where no risk score was performed. Each group had 8 weeks of weekly smoking cessation sessions involving group therapy and advice on smoking cessation pharmacotherapy and follow-up at 6 months. The primary endpoint was smoking cessation at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included ranking of the risk score and other motivators. 67 subjects attended the smoking cessation clinic. The 6 months quit rates were 29.4%, (10/34; 95% CI 14.1-44.7%) for the test group and 42.9% (12/28; 95% CI 24.6-61.2%) for the controls. The difference is not significant. However, the quit rate for test group subjects with a "very high" risk score was 89% (8/9; 95% CI 68.4-100%) which was significant when compared with the control group (p = 0.023) and test group subjects with moderate risk scores had a 9.5% quit rate (2/21; 95% CI 2.7-28.9%) which was significantly lower than for above moderate risk score 61.5% (8/13; 95% CI 35.5-82.3; p = 0.03). Only the sub-group with the highest risk score showed an increased quit rate. Controls and test group subjects with a moderate risk score were relatively unlikely to have achieved and maintained non-smoker status at 6 months. ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT01176383 (date of registration: 3 August 2010).

Impact of Replacing the Pooled Cohort Equation With Other Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores on Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]).

PubMed

Qureshi, Waqas T; Michos, Erin D; Flueckiger, Peter; Blaha, Michael; Sandfort, Veit; Herrington, David M; Burke, Gregory; Yeboah, Joseph

2016-09-01

The increase in statin eligibility by the new cholesterol guidelines is mostly driven by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) criterion (≥7.5% 10-year PCE). The impact of replacing the PCE with either the modified Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) on assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment and statin eligibility remains unknown. We assessed the comparative benefits of using the PCE, FRS, and SCORE for ASCVD risk assessment in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Of 6,815 participants, 654 (mean age 61.4 ± 10.3; 47.1% men; 37.1% whites; 27.2% blacks; 22.3% Hispanics; 12.0% Chinese-Americans) were included in analysis. Area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis were used to compare the 3 risk scores. Decision curve analysis is the plot of net benefit versus probability thresholds; net benefit = true positive rate - (false positive rate × weighting factor). Weighting factor = Threshold probability/1 - threshold probability. After a median of 8.6 years, 342 (6.0%) ASCVD events (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, fatal or nonfatal stroke) occurred. All 4 risk scores had acceptable discriminative ability for incident ASCVD events; (AUC [95% CI] PCE: 0.737 [0.713 to 0.762]; FRS: 0.717 [0.691 to 0.743], SCORE (high risk) 0.722 [0.696 to 0.747], and SCORE (low risk): 0.721 [0.696 to 0.746]. At the ASCVD risk threshold recommended for statin eligibility for primary prevention (≥7.5%), the PCE provides the best net benefit. Replacing the PCE with the SCORE (high), SCORE (low) and FRS results in a 2.9%, 8.9%, and 17.1% further increase in statin eligibility. The PCE has the best discrimination and net benefit for primary ASCVD risk assessment in a US-based multiethnic cohort compared with the SCORE or the FRS. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Occult Breast Cancer: Scintimammography with High-Resolution Breast-specific Gamma Camera in Women at High Risk for Breast Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rachel F. Brem; Jocelyn A. Rapelyea; , Gilat Zisman

2005-08-01

To prospectively evaluate a high-resolution breast-specific gamma camera for depicting occult breast cancer in women at high risk for breast cancer but with normal mammographic and physical examination findings. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Institutional Review Board approval and informed consent were obtained. The study was HIPAA compliant. Ninety-four high-risk women (age range, 36-78 years; mean, 55 years) with normal mammographic (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System [BI-RADS] 1 or 2) and physical examination findings were evaluated with scintimammography. After injection with 25-30 mCi (925-1110 MBq) of technetium 99m sestamibi, patients were imaged with a high-resolution small-field-of-view breast-specific gamma camera in craniocaudalmore » and mediolateral oblique projections. Scintimammograms were prospectively classified according to focal radiotracer uptake as normal (score of 1), with no focal or diffuse uptake; benign (score of 2), with minimal patchy uptake; probably benign (score of 3), with scattered patchy uptake; probably abnormal (score of 4), with mild focal radiotracer uptake; and abnormal (score of 5), with marked focal radiotracer uptake. Mammographic breast density was categorized according to BI-RADS criteria. Patients with normal scintimammograms (scores of 1, 2, or 3) were followed up for 1 year with an annual mammogram, physical examination, and repeat scintimammography. Patients with abnormal scintimammograms (scores of 4 or 5) underwent ultrasonography (US), and those with focal hypoechoic lesions underwent biopsy. If no lesion was found during US, patients were followed up with scintimammography. Specific pathologic findings were compared with scintimammographic findings. RESULTS: Of 94 women, 78 (83%) had normal scintimammograms (score of 1, 2, or 3) at initial examination and 16 (17%) had abnormal scintimammograms (score of 4 or 5). Fourteen (88%) of the 16 patients had either benign findings at biopsy or no focal abnormality at US; in two (12%) patients, invasive carcinoma was diagnosed at US-guided biopsy (9 mm each at pathologic examination). CONCLUSION: High-resolution breast-specific scintimammography can depict small (<1-cm), mammographically occult, nonpalpable lesions in women at increased risk for breast cancer not otherwise identified at mammography or physical examination.« less

Predicting the Necessity for Extracorporeal Circulation During Lung Transplantation: A Feasibility Study.

PubMed

Hinske, Ludwig Christian; Hoechter, Dominik Johannes; Schröeer, Eva; Kneidinger, Nikolaus; Schramm, René; Preissler, Gerhard; Tomasi, Roland; Sisic, Alma; Frey, Lorenz; von Dossow, Vera; Scheiermann, Patrick

2017-06-01

The factors leading to the implementation of unplanned extracorporeal circulation during lung transplantation are poorly defined. Consequently, the authors aimed to identify patients at risk for unplanned extracorporeal circulation during lung transplantation. Retrospective data analysis. Single-center university hospital. A development data set of 170 consecutive patients and an independent validation cohort of 52 patients undergoing lung transplantation. The authors investigated a cohort of 170 consecutive patients undergoing single or sequential bilateral lung transplantation without a priori indication for extracorporeal circulation and evaluated the predictive capability of distinct preoperative and intraoperative variables by using automated model building techniques at three clinically relevant time points (preoperatively, after endotracheal intubation, and after establishing single-lung ventilation). Preoperative mean pulmonary arterial pressure was the strongest predictor for unplanned extracorporeal circulation. A logistic regression model based on preoperative mean pulmonary arterial pressure and lung allocation score achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85. Consequently, the authors developed a novel 3-point scoring system based on preoperative mean pulmonary arterial pressure and lung allocation score, which identified patients at risk for unplanned extracorporeal circulation and validated this score in an independent cohort of 52 patients undergoing lung transplantation. The authors showed that patients at risk for unplanned extracorporeal circulation during lung transplantation could be identified by their novel 3-point score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

White Matter Hyperintensities Improve Ischemic Stroke Recurrence Prediction.

PubMed

Andersen, Søren Due; Larsen, Torben Bjerregaard; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Yavarian, Yousef; Lip, Gregory Y H; Bach, Flemming W

2017-01-01

Nearly one in 5 patients with ischemic stroke will invariably experience a second stroke within 5 years. Stroke risk stratification schemes based solely on clinical variables perform only modestly in non-atrial fibrillation (AF) patients and improvement of these schemes will enhance their clinical utility. Cerebral white matter hyperintensities are associated with an increased risk of incident ischemic stroke in the general population, whereas their association with the risk of ischemic stroke recurrence is more ambiguous. In a non-AF stroke cohort, we investigated the association between cerebral white matter hyperintensities and the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke, and we evaluated the predictive performance of the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score (clinical scores) when augmented with information on white matter hyperintensities. In a registry-based, observational cohort study, we included 832 patients (mean age 59.6 (SD 13.9); 42.0% females) with incident ischemic stroke and no AF. We assessed the severity of white matter hyperintensities using MRI. Hazard ratios stratified by the white matter hyperintensities score and adjusted for the components of the CHA2DS2VASc score were calculated based on the Cox proportional hazards analysis. Recalibrated clinical scores were calculated by adding one point to the score for the presence of moderate to severe white matter hyperintensities. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with the C-statistic. White matter hyperintensities were significantly associated with the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke after adjusting for clinical risk factors. The hazard ratios ranged from 1.65 (95% CI 0.70-3.86) for mild changes to 5.28 (95% CI 1.98-14.07) for the most severe changes. C-statistics for the prediction of recurrent ischemic stroke were 0.59 (95% CI 0.51-0.65) for the CHA2DS2VASc score and 0.60 (95% CI 0.53-0.68) for the Essen Stroke Risk Score. The recalibrated clinical scores showed improved C-statistics: the recalibrated CHA2DS2VASc score 0.62 (95% CI 0.54-0.70; p = 0.024) and the recalibrated Essen Stroke Risk Score 0.63 (95% CI 0.56-0.71; p = 0.031). C-statistics of the white matter hyperintensities score were 0.62 (95% CI 0.52-0.68) to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.73). An increasing burden of white matter hyperintensities was independently associated with recurrent ischemic stroke in a cohort of non-AF ischemic stroke patients. Recalibration of the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score with one point for the presence of moderate to severe white matter hyperintensities led to improved discriminatory performance in ischemic stroke recurrence prediction. Risk scores based on white matter hyperintensities alone were at least as accurate as the established clinical risk scores in the prediction of ischemic stroke recurrence. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

An inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score system in patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma in rituximab era.

PubMed

Sun, Feifei; Zhu, Jia; Lu, Suying; Zhen, Zijun; Wang, Juan; Huang, Junting; Ding, Zonghui; Zeng, Musheng; Sun, Xiaofei

2018-01-02

Systemic inflammatory parameters are associated with poor outcomes in malignant patients. Several inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score systems were established for various solid tumors. However, there is few inflammation based cumulative prognostic score system for patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We retrospectively reviewed 564 adult DLBCL patients who had received rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisolone (R-CHOP) therapy between Nov 1 2006 and Dec 30 2013 and assessed the prognostic significance of six systemic inflammatory parameters evaluated in previous studies by univariate and multivariate analysis:C-reactive protein(CRP), albumin levels, the lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR), the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio(PLR)and fibrinogen levels. Multivariate analysis identified CRP, albumin levels and the LMR are three independent prognostic parameters for overall survival (OS). Based on these three factors, we constructed a novel inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score (ICPS) system. Four risk groups were formed: group ICPS = 0, ICPS = 1, ICPS = 2 and ICPS = 3. Advanced multivariate analysis indicated that the ICPS model is a prognostic score system independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) for both progression-free survival (PFS) (p < 0.001) and OS (p < 0.001). The 3-year OS for patients with ICPS =0, ICPS =1, ICPS =2 and ICPS =3 were 95.6, 88.2, 76.0 and 62.2%, respectively (p < 0.001). The 3-year PFS for patients with ICPS = 0-1, ICPS = 2 and ICPS = 3 were 84.8, 71.6 and 54.5%, respectively (p < 0.001). The prognostic value of the ICPS model indicated that the degree of systemic inflammatory status was associated with clinical outcomes of patients with DLBCL in rituximab era. The ICPS model was shown to classify risk groups more accurately than any single inflammatory prognostic parameters. These findings may be useful for identifying candidates for further inflammation-related mechanism research or novel anti-inflammation target therapies.