Engine Structures Analysis Software: Component Specific Modeling (COSMO)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcknight, R. L.; Maffeo, R. J.; Schwartz, S.

1994-01-01

A component specific modeling software program has been developed for propulsion systems. This expert program is capable of formulating the component geometry as finite element meshes for structural analysis which, in the future, can be spun off as NURB geometry for manufacturing. COSMO currently has geometry recipes for combustors, turbine blades, vanes, and disks. Component geometry recipes for nozzles, inlets, frames, shafts, and ducts are being added. COSMO uses component recipes that work through neutral files with the Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST) program which provides the necessary base parameters and loadings. This report contains the users manual for combustors, turbine blades, vanes, and disks.

Polarizable Molecular Dynamics in a Polarizable Continuum Solvent

PubMed Central

Lipparini, Filippo; Lagardère, Louis; Raynaud, Christophe; Stamm, Benjamin; Cancès, Eric; Mennucci, Benedetta; Schnieders, Michael; Ren, Pengyu; Maday, Yvon; Piquemal, Jean-Philip

2015-01-01

We present for the first time scalable polarizable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within a polarizable continuum solvent with molecular shape cavities and exact solution of the mutual polarization. The key ingredients are a very efficient algorithm for solving the equations associated with the polarizable continuum, in particular, the domain decomposition Conductor-like Screening Model (ddCOSMO), a rigorous coupling of the continuum with the polarizable force field achieved through a robust variational formulation and an effective strategy to solve the coupled equations. The coupling of ddCOSMO with non variational force fields, including AMOEBA, is also addressed. The MD simulations are feasible, for real life systems, on standard cluster nodes; a scalable parallel implementation allows for further speed up in the context of a newly developed module in Tinker, named Tinker-HP. NVE simulations are stable and long term energy conservation can be achieved. This paper is focused on the methodological developments, on the analysis of the algorithm and on the stability of the simulations; a proof-of-concept application is also presented to attest the possibilities of this newly developed technique. PMID:26516318

Model developments in TERRA_URB, the upcoming standard urban parametrization of the atmospheric numerical model COSMO(-CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Hendrik; Blahak, Ulrich; Helmert, Jürgen; Raschendorfer, Matthias; Demuzere, Matthias; Fay, Barbara; Trusilova, Kristina; Mironov, Dmitrii; Reinert, Daniel; Lüthi, Daniel; Machulskaya, Ekaterina

2015-04-01

In order to address urban climate at the regional scales, a new efficient urban land-surface parametrization TERRA_URB has been developed and coupled to the atmospheric numerical model COSMO-CLM. Hereby, several new advancements for urban land-surface models are introduced which are crucial for capturing the urban surface-energy balance and its seasonal dependency in the mid-latitudes. This includes a new PDF-based water-storage parametrization for impervious land, the representation of radiative absorption and emission by greenhouse gases in the infra-red spectrum in the urban canopy layer, and the inclusion of heat emission from human activity. TERRA_URB has been applied in offline urban-climate studies during European observation campaigns at Basel (BUBBLE), Toulouse (CAPITOUL), and Singapore, and currently applied in online studies for urban areas in Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, Helsinki, Singapore, and Melbourne. Because of its computational efficiency, high accuracy and its to-the-point conceptual easiness, TERRA_URB has been selected to become the standard urban parametrization of the atmospheric numerical model COSMO(-CLM). This allows for better weather forecasts for temperature and precipitation in cities with COSMO, and an improved assessment of urban outdoor hazards in the context of global climate change and urban expansion with COSMO-CLM. We propose additional extensions to TERRA_URB towards a more robust representation of cities over the world including their structural design. In a first step, COSMO's standard EXTernal PARarameter (EXTPAR) tool is updated for representing the cities into the land cover over the entire globe. Hereby, global datasets in the standard EXTPAR tool are used to retrieve the 'Paved' or 'sealed' surface Fraction (PF) referring to the presence of buildings and streets. Furthermore, new global data sets are incorporated in EXTPAR for describing the Anthropogenic Heat Flux (AHF) due to human activity, and optionally the Surface Area Index (SAI) derived from the Floor Space Index (FSI). In a second step, it is focussed on the urban/rural contrast in terms of turbulent transport in the surface layer by means of model sensivity experiments: On the theoretical basis of the TKE-based surface-layer transfer scheme of COSMO, we investigate the consistency between empirical functions for thermal roughness lengths and the urban/rural canopy morphology.

Numerical simulation of a dust event in northeastern Germany with a new dust emission scheme in COSMO-ART

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The dust emission scheme of Shao (2004) has been implemented into the regional atmospheric model COSMO-ART and has been applied to a severe dust event in northeastern Germany on 8th April 2011. The model sensitivity to soil moisture and vegetation cover has been studied. Soil moisture has been found...

CosmoSIS: A system for MC parameter estimation

DOE PAGES

Bridle, S.; Dodelson, S.; Jennings, E.; ...

2015-12-23

CosmoSIS is a modular system for cosmological parameter estimation, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo and related techniques. It provides a series of samplers, which drive the exploration of the parameter space, and a series of modules, which calculate the likelihood of the observed data for a given physical model, determined by the location of a sample in the parameter space. While CosmoSIS ships with a set of modules that calculate quantities of interest to cosmologists, there is nothing about the framework itself, nor in the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique, that is specific to cosmology. Thus CosmoSIS could bemore » used for parameter estimation problems in other fields, including HEP. This paper describes the features of CosmoSIS and show an example of its use outside of cosmology. Furthermore, it also discusses how collaborative development strategies differ between two different communities: that of HEP physicists, accustomed to working in large collaborations, and that of cosmologists, who have traditionally not worked in large groups.« less

Membrane-assisted extraction of monoterpenes: from in silico solvent screening towards biotechnological process application

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This work focuses on the process development of membrane-assisted solvent extraction of hydrophobic compounds such as monoterpenes. Beginning with the choice of suitable solvents, quantum chemical calculations with the simulation tool COSMO-RS were carried out to predict the partition coefficient (logP) of (S)-(+)-carvone and terpinen-4-ol in various solvent–water systems and validated afterwards with experimental data. COSMO-RS results show good prediction accuracy for non-polar solvents such as n-hexane, ethyl acetate and n-heptane even in the presence of salts and glycerol in an aqueous medium. Based on the high logP value, n-heptane was chosen for the extraction of (S)-(+)-carvone in a lab-scale hollow-fibre membrane contactor. Two operation modes are investigated where experimental and theoretical mass transfer values, based on their related partition coefficients, were compared. In addition, the process is evaluated in terms of extraction efficiency and overall product recovery, and its biotechnological application potential is discussed. Our work demonstrates that the combination of in silico prediction by COSMO-RS with membrane-assisted extraction is a promising approach for the recovery of hydrophobic compounds from aqueous solutions. PMID:29765654

The on-line coupled atmospheric chemistry model system MECO(n) - Part 5: Expanding the Multi-Model-Driver (MMD v2.0) for 2-way data exchange including data interpolation via GRID (v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerkweg, Astrid; Hofmann, Christiane; Jöckel, Patrick; Mertens, Mariano; Pante, Gregor

2018-03-01

As part of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy), the Multi-Model-Driver (MMD v1.0) was developed to couple online the regional Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model into a driving model, which can be either the regional COSMO model or the global European Centre Hamburg general circulation model (ECHAM) (see Part 2 of the model documentation). The coupled system is called MECO(n), i.e., MESSy-fied ECHAM and COSMO models nested n times. In this article, which is part of the model documentation of the MECO(n) system, the second generation of MMD is introduced. MMD comprises the message-passing infrastructure required for the parallel execution (multiple programme multiple data, MPMD) of different models and the communication of the individual model instances, i.e. between the driving and the driven models. Initially, the MMD library was developed for a one-way coupling between the global chemistry-climate ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) model and an arbitrary number of (optionally cascaded) instances of the regional chemistry-climate model COSMO/MESSy. Thus, MMD (v1.0) provided only functions for unidirectional data transfer, i.e. from the larger-scale to the smaller-scale models.Soon, extended applications requiring data transfer from the small-scale model back to the larger-scale model became of interest. For instance, the original fields of the larger-scale model can directly be compared to the upscaled small-scale fields to analyse the improvements gained through the small-scale calculations, after the results are upscaled. Moreover, the fields originating from the two different models might be fed into the same diagnostic tool, e.g. the online calculation of the radiative forcing calculated consistently with the same radiation scheme. Last but not least, enabling the two-way data transfer between two models is the first important step on the way to a fully dynamical and chemical two-way coupling of the various model instances.In MMD (v1.0), interpolation between the base model grids is performed via the COSMO preprocessing tool INT2LM, which was implemented into the MMD submodel for online interpolation, specifically for mapping onto the rotated COSMO grid. A more flexible algorithm is required for the backward mapping. Thus, MMD (v2.0) uses the new MESSy submodel GRID for the generalised definition of arbitrary grids and for the transformation of data between them.In this article, we explain the basics of the MMD expansion and the newly developed generic MESSy submodel GRID (v1.0) and show some examples of the abovementioned applications.

Particle backscatter and relative humidity measured across cirrus clouds and comparison with state-of-the-art cirrus modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brabec, M.; Wienhold, F. G.; Luo, B.; Vömel, H.; Immler, F.; Steiner, P.; Peter, T.

2012-04-01

Advanced measurement and modelling techniques are employed to determine the partitioning of atmospheric water between the gas phase and the condensed phase in and around cirrus clouds, and thus to identify in-cloud and out-of-cloud supersaturations with respect to ice. In November 2008 the newly developed balloon-borne backscatter sonde COBALD (Compact Optical Backscatter and AerosoL Detector) was flown 14 times together with a CFH (Cryogenic Frost point Hygrometer) from Lindenberg, Germany (52° N, 14° E). The case discussed here in detail shows two cirrus layers with in-cloud relative humidities with respect to ice between 50% and 130%. Global operational analysis data of ECMWF (roughly 1° × 1° horizontal and 1 km vertical resolution, 6-hourly stored fields) fail to represent ice water contents and relative humidities. Conversely, regional COSMO-7 forecasts (6.6 km × 6.6 km, 5-min stored fields) capture the measured humidities and cloud positions remarkably well. The main difference between ECMWF and COSMO data is the resolution of small-scale vertical features responsible for cirrus formation. Nevertheless, ice water contents in COSMO-7 are still off by factors 2-10, likely reflecting limitations in COSMO's ice phase bulk scheme. Significant improvements can be achieved by comprehensive size-resolved microphysical and optical modelling along backward trajectories based on COSMO-7 wind and temperature fields, which allow accurate computation of humidities, ice particle size distributions and backscatter ratios at the COBALD wavelengths. However, only by superimposing small-scale temperature fluctuations, which remain unresolved by the NWP models, can we obtain a satisfying agreement with the observations and reconcile the measured in-cloud non-equilibrium humidities with conventional ice cloud microphysics.

Comparison between the Community Land Model and the Terra Urb model in COSMO 5.0 over tropical Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brousse, Oscar; Wouters, Hendrik; Thiery, Wim; Demuzere, Matthias; Van Lipzig, Nicole

2017-04-01

African urban inhabitants are expected to rise up to 75% of the continent's population at the horizon of 2050 (United Nations, 2014). This unprecedented demographic rise has led to an uncontrolled urbanization, and hence to a lack of public health infrastructures and administration within African cities. During the past decades, as an example, malaria's mitigating infrastructures have been constructed without considering the impact of urbanization. Indexes of malaria's risks have been based on rural areas, driving huge biases by not taking into account characteristics of the urban environment. In response to this challenge, the REACT project sets out to develop an index for malaria risk in urban tropical Africa. In particular, we aim to create two indexes that apply to the regional and local scale, respectively. Especially, intra-urban variability of the near-surface climate and the malaria's epidemiology thus needs to be described. To start, we first conduct a series of sensitivity simulations over a one-year period to determine which Land Surface Model (LSM) implemented within COSMO 5.0 is most suited for the purpose of this research. The model domain will cover the Lake Victoria area, integrating Kampala within its boundaries. The regional climate is considered as tropical and interactions between Lake Victoria and its surroundings have been proven (Thiery et al., 2015; 2016). Since malaria depends on typical meteorological and climatic factors such as precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and temperature, the first part of the project aims at finding which of the LSMs able to assess the more conveniently those epidemiological drivers. Indeed, the results of those runs will serve both the scales for inter- and intra-urban analysis (through a downscaling approach) and hence need to be as detailed as possible. The coupling of COSMO-CLM with the Community Land Model (COSMO-CLM2; Davin and Seneviratne, 2012) is known to have a better integration of vegetation's influence on the meteorological circulations, while the COSMO-CLM coupled with the TerraUrb Urban Canopy Model (Wouters et al., 2015; 2016) is evaluated to have a robust representation of the urban areas' interactions with the atmosphere. Both couplings will be subject to the same boundary conditions and period of study before being compared with a reference run, only vegetated, performed with the COSMO-CLM2, and with a suite of observational products.

Sensitivity analysis with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over the CORDEX-MENA domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucchignani, E.; Cattaneo, L.; Panitz, H.-J.; Mercogliano, P.

2016-02-01

The results of a sensitivity work based on ERA-Interim driven COSMO-CLM simulations over the Middle East-North Africa (CORDEX-MENA) domain are presented. All simulations were performed at 0.44° spatial resolution. The purpose of this study was to ascertain model performances with respect to changes in physical and tuning parameters which are mainly related to surface, convection, radiation and cloud parameterizations. Evaluation was performed for the whole CORDEX-MENA region and six sub-regions, comparing a set of 26 COSMO-CLM runs against a combination of available ground observations, satellite products and reanalysis data to assess temperature, precipitation, cloud cover and mean sea level pressure. The model proved to be very sensitive to changes in physical parameters. The optimized configuration allows COSMO-CLM to improve the simulated main climate features of this area. Its main characteristics consist in the new parameterization of albedo, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data, and the new parameterization of aerosol, based on NASA-GISS AOD distributions. When applying this configuration, Mean Absolute Error values for the considered variables are as follows: about 1.2 °C for temperature, about 15 mm/month for precipitation, about 9 % for total cloud cover, and about 0.6 hPa for mean sea level pressure.

Extensive survey of molecules related to wood formation and gravity for space agriculture.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motohashi, Kyohei; Tomita-Yokotani, Kaori; Baba, Keiichi; Furukawa, Jun; Sato, Seigo; Suzuki, Toshisada; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Yamashita, Masamichi; Japanese Space Tree Working Group

Most, if not all, terrestrial subjects are under the influence of gravity. Since the gravitational force is proportional to the mass of subject, gravity is dominant for larger masses. The response of a plant against gravity is not an exception in this respect even it shows rather complicated features. For the angiosperm tree, its shape is determined by the forming tension wood, which induces more tensile stress in the xylem than in the normal wood. The mechanism of tension wood formation and its relevance to gravity have been extensively studied. Gibberellin is known to be responsible for this phenomenon in angiosperm tree, for example, the Japanese cherry tree, Prunus jamasakura. However, full understanding of the mechanisms has not yet been clarified. For an extensive survey of molecules related to tension wood formation, we induced an artificial tension wood formation and examined the tension wood formation by microscopic observations with double-staining. This enables the screening of really functional molecules in the space environment for future space agriculture. We demonstrated that Prunus incise is suitable for this research as a test material based on several reasons. We focused our attention in the region of the branch, i.e., the CosmoTree in CosmoBon, and established an experimental system to analyze the real functional factors of the tension wood. This study might ensure wood formation in a space environment and use woody plants as a material for space development. ("CosmoBon" is the Bonsai small tree for our space experiments. "CosmoTree" is a small branch/tree.)

Particle backscatter and relative humidity measured across cirrus clouds and comparison with microphysical cirrus modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brabec, M.; Wienhold, F. G.; Luo, B. P.; Vömel, H.; Immler, F.; Steiner, P.; Hausammann, E.; Weers, U.; Peter, T.

2012-10-01

Advanced measurement and modelling techniques are employed to estimate the partitioning of atmospheric water between the gas phase and the condensed phase in and around cirrus clouds, and thus to identify in-cloud and out-of-cloud supersaturations with respect to ice. In November 2008 the newly developed balloon-borne backscatter sonde COBALD (Compact Optical Backscatter and AerosoL Detector) was flown 14 times together with a CFH (Cryogenic Frost point Hygrometer) from Lindenberg, Germany (52° N, 14° E). The case discussed here in detail shows two cirrus layers with in-cloud relative humidities with respect to ice between 50% and 130%. Global operational analysis data of ECMWF (roughly 1° × 1° horizontal and 1 km vertical resolution, 6-hourly stored fields) fail to represent ice water contents and relative humidities. Conversely, regional COSMO-7 forecasts (6.6 km × 6.6 km, 5-min stored fields) capture the measured humidities and cloud positions remarkably well. The main difference between ECMWF and COSMO data is the resolution of small-scale vertical features responsible for cirrus formation. Nevertheless, ice water contents in COSMO-7 are still off by factors 2-10, likely reflecting limitations in COSMO's ice phase bulk scheme. Significant improvements can be achieved by comprehensive size-resolved microphysical and optical modelling along backward trajectories based on COSMO-7 wind and temperature fields, which allow accurate computation of humidities, homogeneous ice nucleation, resulting ice particle size distributions and backscatter ratios at the COBALD wavelengths. However, only by superimposing small-scale temperature fluctuations, which remain unresolved by the numerical weather prediction models, can we obtain a satisfying agreement with the observations and reconcile the measured in-cloud non-equilibrium humidities with conventional ice cloud microphysics. Conversely, the model-data comparison provides no evidence that additional changes to ice-cloud microphysics - such as heterogeneous nucleation or changing the water vapour accommodation coefficient on ice - are required.

Fully automatic oil spill detection from COSMO-SkyMed imagery using a neural network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avezzano, Ruggero G.; Del Frate, Fabio; Latini, Daniele

2012-09-01

The increased amount of available Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images acquired over the ocean represents an extraordinary potential for improving oil spill detection activities. On the other side this involves a growing workload on the operators at analysis centers. In addition, even if the operators go through extensive training to learn manual oil spill detection, they can provide different and subjective responses. Hence, the upgrade and improvements of algorithms for automatic detection that can help in screening the images and prioritizing the alarms are of great benefit. In the framework of an ASI Announcement of Opportunity for the exploitation of COSMO-SkyMed data, a research activity (ASI contract L/020/09/0) aiming at studying the possibility to use neural networks architectures to set up fully automatic processing chains using COSMO-SkyMed imagery has been carried out and results are presented in this paper. The automatic identification of an oil spill is seen as a three step process based on segmentation, feature extraction and classification. We observed that a PCNN (Pulse Coupled Neural Network) was capable of providing a satisfactory performance in the different dark spots extraction, close to what it would be produced by manual editing. For the classification task a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Neural Network was employed.

Selection of ionic liquids for enhancing the gas solubility of volatile organic compounds.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Miquel, Maria; Palomar, Jose; Rodriguez, Francisco

2013-01-10

A systematic thermodynamic analysis has been carried out for selecting cations and anions to enhance the absorption of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at low concentration in gaseous streams by ionic liquids (ILs), using COSMO-RS methodology. The predictability of computational procedure was validated by comparing experimental and COSMO-RS calculated Henry's law constant data over a sample of 125 gaseous solute-IL systems. For more than 2400 solute-IL mixtures evaluated, including 9 solutes and 270 ILs, it was found that the lower the activity coefficient at infinite dilution (γ(∞)) of solutes in the ILs, the more the exothermic excess enthalpy (H(E)) of the equimolar IL-solute mixtures. Then, the solubility of a representative sample of VOC solutes, with very different chemical nature, was screened in a wide number of ILs using COSMO-RS methodology by means of γ(∞) and H(E) parameters, establishing criteria to select the IL structures that promote favorable solute-solvent intermolecular interactions. As a result of this analysis, an attempt of classification of VOCs respect to their potential solubility in ILs was proposed, providing insights to rationally select the cationic and anionic species for a possible development of absorption treatments of VOC pollutants based on IL systems.

High resolution modelling of wind fields for optimization of empirical storm flood predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brecht, B.; Frank, H.

2014-05-01

High resolution wind fields are necessary to predict the occurrence of storm flood events and their magnitude. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) created a catalogue of detailed wind fields of 39 historical storms at the German North Sea coast from the years 1962 to 2011. The catalogue is used by the Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Wasser-, Küsten- und Naturschutz (NLWKN) coastal research center to improve their flood alert service. The computation of wind fields and other meteorological parameters is based on the model chain of the DWD going from the global model GME via the limited-area model COSMO with 7 km mesh size down to a COSMO model with 2.2 km. To obtain an improved analysis COSMO runs are nudged against observations for the historical storms. The global model GME is initialised from the ERA reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). As expected, we got better congruency with observations of the model for the nudging runs than the normal forecast runs for most storms. We also found during the verification process that different land use data sets could influence the results considerably.

Discrete and continuum modeling of solvent effects in a twisted intramolecular charge transfer system: The 4-N,N-dimethylaminobenzonitrile (DMABN) molecule.

PubMed

Modesto-Costa, Lucas; Borges, Itamar

2018-08-05

The 4-N,N-dimethylaminobenzonitrile (DMABN) molecule is a prototypical system displaying twisted intramolecular (TICT) charge transfer effects. The ground and the first four electronic excited states (S 1 -S 4 ) in gas phase and upon solvation were studied. Charge transfer values as function of the torsion angle between the donor group (dimethylamine) and the acceptor moiety (benzonitrile) were explicitly computed. Potential energy curves were also obtained. The algebraic diagrammatic construction method at the second-order [ADC(2)] ab initio wave function was employed. Three solvents of increased polarities (benzene, DMSO and water) were investigated using discrete (average solvent electrostatic configuration - ASEC) and continuum (conductor-like screening model - COSMO) models. The results for the S 3 and S 4 excited states and the S 1 -S 4 charge transfer curves were not previously available in the literature. Electronic gas phase and solvent vertical spectra are in good agreement with previous theoretical and experimental results. In the twisted (90°) geometry the optical oscillator strengths have negligible values even for the S 2 bright state. Potential energy curves show two distinct pairs of curves intersecting at decreasing angles or not crossing in the more polar solvents. Charge transfer and electric dipole values allowed the rationalization of these results. The former effects are mostly independent of the solvent model and polarity. Although COSMO and ASEC solvent models mostly lead to similar results, there is an important difference: some crossings of the excitation energy curves appear only in the ASEC solvation model, which has important implications to the photochemistry of DMABN. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Natural deep eutectic solvents: cytotoxic profile.

PubMed

Hayyan, Maan; Mbous, Yves Paul; Looi, Chung Yeng; Wong, Won Fen; Hayyan, Adeeb; Salleh, Zulhaziman; Mohd-Ali, Ozair

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the cytotoxic profiles of different ternary natural deep eutectic solvents (NADESs) containing water. For this purpose, five different NADESs were prepared using choline chloride as a salt, alongside five hydrogen bond donors (HBD) namely glucose, fructose, sucrose, glycerol, and malonic acid. Water was added as a tertiary component during the eutectics preparation, except for the malonic acid-based mixture. Coincidentally, the latter was found to be more toxic than any of the water-based NADESs. A trend was observed between the cellular requirements of cancer cells, the viscosity of the NADESs, and their cytotoxicity. This study also highlights the first time application of the conductor-like screening model for real solvent (COSMO-RS) software for the analysis of the cytotoxic mechanism of NADESs. COSMO-RS simulation of the interactions between NADESs and cellular membranes' phospholipids suggested that NADESs strongly interacted with cell surfaces and that their accumulation and aggregation possibly defined their cytotoxicity. This reinforced the idea that careful selection of NADESs components is necessary, as it becomes evident that organic acids as HBD highly contribute to the increasing toxicity of these neoteric mixtures. Nevertheless, NADESs in general seem to possess relatively less acute toxicity profiles than their DESs parents. This opens the door for future large scale utilization of these mixtures.

Investigation of polar mesocyclones in Arctic Ocean using COSMO-CLM and WRF numerical models and remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varentsov, Mikhail; Verezemskaya, Polina; Baranyuk, Anastasia; Zabolotskikh, Elizaveta; Repina, Irina

2015-04-01

Polar lows (PL), high latitude marine mesoscale cyclones, are an enigmatic atmospheric phenomenon, which could result in windstorm damage of shipping and infrastructure in high latitudes. Because of their small spatial scales, short life times and their tendency to develop in remote data sparse regions (Zahn, Strorch, 2008), our knowledge of their behavior and climatology lags behind that of synoptic-scale cyclones. In case of continuing global warming (IPCC, 2013) and prospects of the intensification of economic activity and marine traffic in Arctic region, the problem of relevant simulation of this phenomenon by numerical models of the atmosphere, which could be used for weather and climate prediction, is especially important. The focus of this paper is researching the ability to simulate polar lows by two modern nonhydrostatic mesoscale numerical models, driven by realistic lateral boundary conditions from ERA-Interim reanalysis: regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Böhm et. al., 2009) and weather prediction and research model (WRF). Fields of wind, pressure and cloudiness, simulated by models, were compared with remote sensing data and ground meteorological observations for several cases, when polar lows were observed, in Norwegian, Kara and Laptev seas. Several types of satellite data were used: atmospheric water vapor, cloud liquid water content and surface wind fields were resampled by examining AMSR-E and AMSR-2 microwave radiometer data (MODIS Aqua, GCOM-W1), and wind fields were additionally extracted from QuickSCAT scatterometer. Infrared and visible pictures of cloud cover were obtained from MODIS (Aqua). Completed comparison shown that COSMO-CLM and WRF models could successfully reproduce evolution of polar lows and their most important characteristics such as size and wind speed in short experiments with WRF model and longer (up to half-year) experiments with COSMO-CLM model. Improvement of the quality of polar lows reproduction by these models in relation to source reanalysis fields were investigated. References: 1. Böhm U. et al. CLM - the climate version of LM: Brief description and long-term applications [Journal] // COSMO Newsletter. - 2006. - Vol. 6. 2. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2013 (AR5) Rep.,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 3. Zahn, M., and H. von Storch (2008), A long-term climatology of North Atlantic polar lows, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22702

Surface Runoff Estimation Using SMOS Observations, Rain-gauge Measurements and Satellite Precipitation Estimations. Comparison with Model Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia Leal, Julio A.; Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Khodayar, Samiro; Estrela, Teodoro; Fidalgo, Arancha; Gabaldo, Onofre; Kuligowski, Robert; Herrera, Eddy

Surface runoff is defined as the amount of water that originates from precipitation, does not infiltrates due to soil saturation and therefore circulates over the surface. A good estimation of runoff is useful for the design of draining systems, structures for flood control and soil utilisation. For runoff estimation there exist different methods such as (i) rational method, (ii) isochrone method, (iii) triangular hydrograph, (iv) non-dimensional SCS hydrograph, (v) Temez hydrograph, (vi) kinematic wave model, represented by the dynamics and kinematics equations for a uniforme precipitation regime, and (vii) SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number) model. This work presents a way of estimating precipitation runoff through the SCS-CN model, using SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) mission soil moisture observations and rain-gauge measurements, as well as satellite precipitation estimations. The area of application is the Jucar River Basin Authority area where one of the objectives is to develop the SCS-CN model in a spatial way. The results were compared to simulations performed with the 7-km COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling, COSMO model in CLimate Mode) model. The use of SMOS soil moisture as input to the COSMO-CLM model will certainly improve model simulations.

Water solvent effects using continuum and discrete models: The nitromethane molecule, CH3NO2.

PubMed

Modesto-Costa, Lucas; Uhl, Elmar; Borges, Itamar

2015-11-15

The first three valence transitions of the two nitromethane conformers (CH3NO2) are two dark n → π* transitions and a very intense π → π* transition. In this work, these transitions in gas-phase and solvated in water of both conformers were investigated theoretically. The polarizable continuum model (PCM), two conductor-like screening (COSMO) models, and the discrete sequential quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (S-QM/MM) method were used to describe the solvation effect on the electronic spectra. Time dependent density functional theory (TDDFT), configuration interaction including all single substitutions and perturbed double excitations (CIS(D)), the symmetry-adapted-cluster CI (SAC-CI), the multistate complete active space second order perturbation theory (CASPT2), and the algebraic-diagrammatic construction (ADC(2)) electronic structure methods were used. Gas-phase CASPT2, SAC-CI, and ADC(2) results are in very good agreement with published experimental and theoretical spectra. Among the continuum models, PCM combined either with CASPT2, SAC-CI, or B3LYP provided good agreement with available experimental data. COSMO combined with ADC(2) described the overall trends of the transition energy shifts. The effect of increasing the number of explicit water molecules in the S-QM/MM approach was discussed and the formation of hydrogen bonds was clearly established. By including explicitly 24 water molecules corresponding to the complete first solvation shell in the S-QM/MM approach, the ADC(2) method gives more accurate results as compared to the TDDFT approach and with similar computational demands. The ADC(2) with S-QM/MM model is, therefore, the best compromise for accurate solvent calculations in a polar environment. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

CosmoAcademy Training and Certification for Scientists and Engineers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noel-Storr, Jacob; Buxner, Sanlyn; Grier, Jennifer A.; Gay, Pamela L.; CosmoQuest Team

2016-10-01

CosmoQuest is a virtual research facility bringing together scientists, citizens, and learners of all ages. CosmoQuest offers classes, training, and learning opportunities online through CosmoAcademy, offering opportunities for all kinds of learners to become more connected to the science of the Universe. In this poster we describe CosmoAcademy opportunities for Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), scientists and engineers who are interested in broadening their impact of their work by providing learning opportunities for those outside of the scientific community. CosmoAcademy offers SME programs at a variety of levels and across a variety of topics in formal and informal education and outreach -- ranging from sharing the results of your work on social media, through delivering an online class series, to partnering with teachers and schools. SMEs may combine sequences of training to earn certification at various levels for their participation in the CosmoAcademy programs. SMEs who have been trained may also apply to teach CosmoAcademy classes for the community on subjects of their expertise to build a rich and engaging learning resource for members of society who wish to understand more about the Universe.

CosmoQuest: Galvanizing a Dynamic, Inclusive Professional Learning Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, W. H.; Buxner, S.; Bracey, G.; Noel-Storr, J.; Gay, P.; Graff, P. V.

2016-12-01

The CosmoQuest Virtual Research Facility offers experiences to audiences around the nation and globally through pioneering citizen science. An endeavor between universities, research institutes, and NASA centers, CosmoQuest brings together scientists, educators, researchers, programmers—and individuals of all ages—to explore and make sense of our solar system and beyond. Scaffolded by an educational framework that inspires 21stCentury learners, CosmoQuest engages people—you, me!—in analyzing and interpreting real NASA data, inspiring questions and defining problems. Linda Darling-Hammond calls for professional development to be: "focused on the learning and teaching of specific curriculum content [i.e. NGSS disciplinary core ideas]; organized around real problems of practice [i.e. NGSS science and engineering practices] …; [and] connected to teachers' collaborative work in professional learning community...." (2012). In light of that, what can CosmoQuest offer NASA STEM education as a virtual research facility? CosmoQuest engages scientists with learners, and learners with science. As a virual research facility, its focal point must be its online platform. CosmoQuest empowers and expands community through a variety of social channels, including science and education-focused hangouts, podcasts, virtual star parties, and social media. In addition to creating standards-aligned materials, CosmoQuest channels are a hub for excellent resources throughout NASA and the larger astronomical community. In support of CosmoQuest citizen science opportunities, the process and outcomes of CosmoQuest initiatives will be leveraged and shared. Thus, CosmoQuest will be present and alive in the awareness of its growing community. Finally, to make CosmoQuest truly relevant, partnerships between scientists and educators are encouraged and facilitated, and "just-in-time" opportunities to support constituents exploring emerging NASA STEM education and new NASA data will be offered, engaging audiences ranging from diverse educators to the curious learner of any age.

Radiative and temperature effects of aerosol simulated by the COSMO-Ru model for different atmospheric conditions and their testing against ground-based measurements and accurate RT simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chubarova, Nataly; Poliukhov, Alexei; Shatunova, Marina; Rivin, Gdali; Becker, Ralf; Muskatel, Harel; Blahak, Ulrich; Kinne, Stefan; Tarasova, Tatiana

2017-04-01

We use the operational Russian COSMO-Ru weather forecast model (Ritter and and Geleyn, 1991) with different aerosol input data for the evaluation of radiative and temperature effects of aerosol in different atmospheric conditions. Various aerosol datasets were utilized including Tegen climatology (Tegen et al., 1997), updated Macv2 climatology (Kinne et al., 2013), Tanre climatology (Tanre et al., 1984) as well as the MACC data (Morcrette et al., 2009). For clear sky conditions we compare the radiative effects from the COSMO-Ru model over Moscow (55.7N, 37.5E) and Lindenberg/Falkenberg sites (52.2N, 14.1E) with the results obtained using long-term aerosol measurements. Additional tests of the COSMO RT code were performed against (FC05)-SW model (Tarasova T.A. and Fomin B.A., 2007). The overestimation of about 5-8% of COSMO RT code was obtained. The study of aerosol effect on temperature at 2 meters has revealed the sensitivity of about 0.7-1.1 degree C per 100 W/m2 change in shortwave net radiation due to aerosol variations. We also discuss the radiative impact of urban aerosol properties according to the long-term AERONET measurements in Moscow and Moscow suburb as well as long-term aerosol trends over Moscow from the measurements and Macv2 dataset. References: Kinne, S., O'Donnel D., Stier P., et al., J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 704-740, 2013. Morcrette J.-J.,O. Boucher, L. Jones, eet al, J.GEOPHYS. RES.,VOL. 114, D06206, doi:10.1029/2008JD011235, 2009. Ritter, B. and Geleyn, J., Monthly Weather Review, 120, 303-325, 1992. Tanre, D., Geleyn, J., and Slingo, J., A. Deepak Publ., Hampton, Virginia, 133-177, 1984. Tarasova, T., and Fomin, B., Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 24, 1157-1162, 2007. Tegen, I., Hollrig, P., Chin, M., et al., Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres, 102, 23895-23915, 1997.

Multiscale Analysis of the Water Content Output the NWP Model COSMO Over Switzerland and Comparison With Radar Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfensberger, D.; Gires, A.; Berne, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J. M.

2015-12-01

The resolution of operational numerical prediction models is typically of the order of a few kilometres meaning that small-scale features of precipitation can not be resolved explicitly. This creates the need for representative parametrizations of microphysical processes whose properties should be carefully analysed. In this study we will focus on the COSMO model which is a non-hydrostatic limited-area model, initially developed as the Lokal Model and used operationally in Switzerland and Germany. In its operational version, cloud microphysical processes are simulated with a one-moment bulk scheme where five hydrometeor classes are considered: cloud droplets, rain, ice crystals, snow, and graupel. A more sophisticated two-moment scheme is also available. The study will focus on two case studies: one in Payerne in western Switzerland in a relatively flat region and one in Davos in the eastern Swiss Alps in a more complex terrain.The objective of this work is to characterize the ability of the COSMO NWP model to reproduce the microphysics of precipitation across temporal and spatial scales as well as scaling variability. The characterization of COSMO outputs will rely on the Universal Multifractals framework, which allows to analyse and simulate geophysical fields extremely variabile over a wide range of scales with the help of a reduced number of parameters. First COSMO outputs are analysed; spatial multifractal analysis of 2D maps at various altitudes for each time steps are carried out for simulated solid, liquid, vapour and total water content. In general the fields exhibit a good quality of scaling on the whole range of available scales (2 km - 250 km), but some loss of scaling quality corresponding to the emergence of a scaling break are sometimes visible. This behaviour is not found at the same time or at the same altitude according to the water state and does not necessarily spread to the total water content. It is interpreted with the help of the underlying physical process at stake during the events.Second Multifractal comparisons of model outputs will also be made with radar data provided by the Meteo Swiss, both indirectly in terms of precipitation intensities and directly using a polarimetric forward radar operator which is able to simulate radar observations from model outputs.

Towards European-scale convection-resolving climate simulations with GPUs: a study with COSMO 4.19

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, David; Fuhrer, Oliver; Lapillonne, Xavier; Lüthi, Daniel; Schär, Christoph

2016-09-01

The representation of moist convection in climate models represents a major challenge, due to the small scales involved. Using horizontal grid spacings of O(1km), convection-resolving weather and climate models allows one to explicitly resolve deep convection. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. Innovations in supercomputing have led to new hybrid node designs, mixing conventional multi-core hardware and accelerators such as graphics processing units (GPUs). One of the first atmospheric models that has been fully ported to these architectures is the COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling) model.Here we present the convection-resolving COSMO model on continental scales using a version of the model capable of using GPU accelerators. The verification of a week-long simulation containing winter storm Kyrill shows that, for this case, convection-parameterizing simulations and convection-resolving simulations agree well. Furthermore, we demonstrate the applicability of the approach to longer simulations by conducting a 3-month-long simulation of the summer season 2006. Its results corroborate the findings found on smaller domains such as more credible representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in convection-resolving models and a tendency to produce more intensive hourly precipitation events. Both simulations also show how the approach allows for the representation of interactions between synoptic-scale and meso-scale atmospheric circulations at scales ranging from 1000 to 10 km. This includes the formation of sharp cold frontal structures, convection embedded in fronts and small eddies, or the formation and organization of propagating cold pools. Finally, we assess the performance gain from using heterogeneous hardware equipped with GPUs relative to multi-core hardware. With the COSMO model, we now use a weather and climate model that has all the necessary modules required for real-case convection-resolving regional climate simulations on GPUs.

Evaluation of COSMO-ART in the Framework of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordano, Lea; Brunner, Dominik; Im, Ulas; Galmarini, Stefano

2014-05-01

The Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) coordinated by the EC-JRC and US-EPA, promotes since 2008 research on regional air quality model evaluation across the atmospheric modelling communities of Europe and North America. AQMEII has now reached its Phase 2 that is dedicated to the evaluation of on-line coupled chemistry-meteorology models as opposed to Phase 1 where only off-line models were considered. At European level, AQMEII collaborates with the COST Action "European framework for on-line integrated air quality and meteorology modelling" (EuMetChem). All European groups participating in AQMEII performed simulations over the same spatial domain (Europe at a resolution of about 20 km) and using the same simulation strategy (e.g. no nudging allowed) and the same input data as much as possible. The initial and boundary conditions (IC/BC) were shared between all groups. Emissions were provided by the TNO-MACC database for anthropogenic emissions and the FMI database for biomass burning emissions. Chemical IC/BC data were taken from IFS-MOZART output, and meteorological IC/BC from the ECWMF global model. Evaluation data sets were collected by the Joint Research Center (JRC) and include measurements from surface in situ networks (AirBase and EMEP), vertical profiles from ozone sondes and aircraft (MOZAIC), and remote sensing (AERONET, satellites). Since Phase 2 focuses on on-line coupled models, a special effort is devoted to the detailed speciation of particulate matter components, with the goal of studying feedback processes. For the AQMEII exercise, COSMO-ART has been run with 40 levels of vertical resolution, and a chemical scheme that includes the SCAV module of Knote and Brunner (ACP 2013) for wet-phase chemistry and the SOA treatment according to VBS (volatility basis set) approach (Athanasopoulou et al., ACP 2013). The COSMO-ART evaluation shows that, next to a good performance in the meteorology, the gas phase chemistry is well captured throughout the year; the few cases showing a systematic underestimation of chemical concentrations arise as a consequence of the boundary conditions. Through this exercise we have identified the main critical issues in the COSMO-ART performance: sea salt and dust particulate matter components. The AQMEII exercise has provided an excellent platform to evaluate the COSMO-ART performance against both measurement data and other European regional on-line coupled models. From the analysis we have been able to identify specific model deficiencies and situations where the model cannot satisfactorily reproduce the data. Our future work will be focused on improving their modelling.

Evaluation of high-resolution climate simulations for West Africa using COSMO-CLM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieng, Diarra; Smiatek, Gerhard; Bliefernicht, Jan; Laux, Patrick; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Kunstmann, Harald; Sarr, Abdoulaye; Thierno Gaye, Amadou

2017-04-01

The climate change modeling activities within the WASCAL program (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) concentrate on the provisioning of future climate change scenario data at high spatial and temporal resolution and quality in West Africa. Such information is highly required for impact studies in water resources and agriculture for the development of reliable climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study, we present a detailed evaluation of high simulation runs based on the regional climate model, COSMO model in CLimate Mode (COSMO-CLM). The model is applied over West Africa in a nested approach with two simulation domains at 0.44° and 0.11° resolution using reanalysis data from ERA-Interim (1979-2013). The models runs are compared to several state-of-the-art observational references (e.g., CRU, CHIRPS) including daily precipitation data provided by national meteorological services in West Africa. Special attention is paid to the reproduction of the dynamics of the West African Monsoon (WMA), its associated precipitation patterns and crucial agro-climatological indices such as the onset of the rainy season. In addition, first outcomes of the regional climate change simulations driven by MPI-ESM-LR are presented for a historical period (1980 to 2010) and two future periods (2020 to 2050, 2070 to 2100). The evaluation of the reanalysis runs shows that COSMO-CLM is able to reproduce the observed major climate characteristics including the West African Monsoon within the range of comparable RCM evaluations studies. However, substantial uncertainties remain, especially in the Sahel zone. The added value of the higher resolution of the nested run is reflected in a smaller bias in extreme precipitation statistics with respect to the reference data.

Polydimethylsiloxane-air partition ratios for semi-volatile organic compounds by GC-based measurement and COSMO-RS estimation: Rapid measurements and accurate modelling.

PubMed

Okeme, Joseph O; Parnis, J Mark; Poole, Justen; Diamond, Miriam L; Jantunen, Liisa M

2016-08-01

Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) shows promise for use as a passive air sampler (PAS) for semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs). To use PDMS as a PAS, knowledge of its chemical-specific partitioning behaviour and time to equilibrium is needed. Here we report on the effectiveness of two approaches for estimating the partitioning properties of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), values of PDMS-to-air partition ratios or coefficients (KPDMS-Air), and time to equilibrium of a range of SVOCs. Measured values of KPDMS-Air, Exp' at 25 °C obtained using the gas chromatography retention method (GC-RT) were compared with estimates from a poly-parameter free energy relationship (pp-FLER) and a COSMO-RS oligomer-based model. Target SVOCs included novel flame retardants (NFRs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). Significant positive relationships were found between log KPDMS-Air, Exp' and estimates made using the pp-FLER model (log KPDMS-Air, pp-LFER) and the COSMOtherm program (log KPDMS-Air, COSMOtherm). The discrepancy and bias between measured and predicted values were much higher for COSMO-RS than the pp-LFER model, indicating the anticipated better performance of the pp-LFER model than COSMO-RS. Calculations made using measured KPDMS-Air, Exp' values show that a PDMS PAS of 0.1 cm thickness will reach 25% of its equilibrium capacity in ∼1 day for alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) to ∼ 500 years for tris (4-tert-butylphenyl) phosphate (TTBPP), which brackets the volatility range of all compounds tested. The results presented show the utility of GC-RT method for rapid and precise measurements of KPDMS-Air. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

CosmoQuest Collaborative: Galvanizing a Dynamic Professional Learning Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, Whitney; Bracey, Georgia; Buxner, Sanlyn; Gay, Pamela L.; Noel-Storr, Jacob; CosmoQuest Team

2016-10-01

The CosmoQuest Collaboration offers in-depth experiences to diverse audiences around the nation and the world through pioneering citizen science in a virtual research facility. An endeavor between universities, research institutes, and NASA centers, CosmoQuest brings together scientists, educators, researchers, programmers—and citizens of all ages—to explore and make sense of our solar system and beyond. Leveraging human networks to expand NASA science, scaffolded by an educational framework that inspires lifelong learners, CosmoQuest engages citizens in analyzing and interpreting real NASA data, inspiring questions and defining problems.The QuestionLinda Darling-Hammond calls for professional development to be: "focused on the learning and teaching of specific curriculum content [i.e. NGSS disciplinary core ideas]; organized around real problems of practice [i.e. NGSS science and engineering practices] … [and] connected to teachers' collaborative work in professional learning community...." (2012) In light of that, what is the unique role CosmoQuest's virtual research facility can offer NASA STEM education?A Few AnswersThe CosmoQuest Collaboration actively engages scientists in education, and educators (and learners) in science. CosmoQuest uses social channels to empower and expand NASA's learning community through a variety of media, including science and education-focused hangouts, virtual star parties, and social media. In addition to creating its own supportive, standards-aligned materials, CosmoQuest offers a hub for excellent resources and materials throughout NASA and the larger astronomy community.In support of CosmoQuest citizen science opportunities, CQ initiatives (Learning Space, S-ROSES, IDEASS, Educator Zone) will be leveraged and shared through the CQPLN. CosmoQuest can be present and alive in the awareness its growing learning community.Finally, to make the CosmoQuest PLN truly relevant, it aims to encourage partnerships between scientists and educators, and offer "just-in-time" opportunities to support constituents exploring emerging NASA STEM education, from diverse educators to the curious learner of any age.

CosmoSIS: Modular cosmological parameter estimation

DOE PAGES

Zuntz, J.; Paterno, M.; Jennings, E.; ...

2015-06-09

Cosmological parameter estimation is entering a new era. Large collaborations need to coordinate high-stakes analyses using multiple methods; furthermore such analyses have grown in complexity due to sophisticated models of cosmology and systematic uncertainties. In this paper we argue that modularity is the key to addressing these challenges: calculations should be broken up into interchangeable modular units with inputs and outputs clearly defined. Here we present a new framework for cosmological parameter estimation, CosmoSIS, designed to connect together, share, and advance development of inference tools across the community. We describe the modules already available in CosmoSIS, including CAMB, Planck, cosmicmore » shear calculations, and a suite of samplers. Lastly, we illustrate it using demonstration code that you can run out-of-the-box with the installer available at http://bitbucket.org/joezuntz/cosmosis« less

Implementation of aerosol-cloud interactions in the regional atmosphere-aerosol model COSMO-MUSCAT(5.0) and evaluation using satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dipu, Sudhakar; Quaas, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Stoll, Jens; Mühlbauer, Andreas; Sourdeval, Odran; Salzmann, Marc; Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, Ina

2017-06-01

The regional atmospheric model Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) coupled to the Multi-Scale Chemistry Aerosol Transport model (MUSCAT) is extended in this work to represent aerosol-cloud interactions. Previously, only one-way interactions (scavenging of aerosol and in-cloud chemistry) and aerosol-radiation interactions were included in this model. The new version allows for a microphysical aerosol effect on clouds. For this, we use the optional two-moment cloud microphysical scheme in COSMO and the online-computed aerosol information for cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (Cccn), replacing the constant Cccn profile. In the radiation scheme, we have implemented a droplet-size-dependent cloud optical depth, allowing now for aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. To evaluate the models with satellite data, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been implemented. A case study has been carried out to understand the effects of the modifications, where the modified modeling system is applied over the European domain with a horizontal resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. To reduce the complexity in aerosol-cloud interactions, only warm-phase clouds are considered. We found that the online-coupled aerosol introduces significant changes for some cloud microphysical properties. The cloud effective radius shows an increase of 9.5 %, and the cloud droplet number concentration is reduced by 21.5 %.

Monthly and seasonally verification of precipitation in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starosta, K.; Linkowska, J.

2009-04-01

The national meteorological service of Poland - the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM) joined COSMO - The Consortium for Small Scale Modelling on July 2004. In Poland, the COSMO _PL model version 3.5 had run till June 2007. Since July 2007, the model version 4.0 has been running. The model runs in an operational mode at 14-km grid spacing, twice a day (00 UTC, 12 UTC). For scientific research also model with 7-km grid spacing is ran. Monthly and seasonally verification for the 24-hours (06 UTC - 06 UTC) accumulated precipitation is presented in this paper. The precipitation field of COSMO_LM had been verified against rain gauges network (308 points). The verification had been made for every month and all seasons from December 2007 to December 2008. The verification was made for three forecast days for selected thresholds: 0.5, 1, 2.5, 5, 10, 20, 25, 30 mm. Following indices from contingency table were calculated: FBI (bias), POD (probability of detection), PON (probability of detection of non event), FAR (False alarm rate), TSS (True sill statistic), HSS (Heidke skill score), ETS (Equitable skill score). Also percentile ranks and ROC-relative operating characteristic are presented. The ROC is a graph of the hit rate (Y-axis) against false alarm rate (X-axis) for different decision thresholds

Monthly and seasonally verification of precipitation in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starosta, K.; Linkowska, J.

2009-04-01

The national meteorological service of Poland - the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM) joined COSMO - The Consortium for Small Scale Modelling on July 2004. In Poland, the COSMO _PL model version 3.5 had run till June 2007. Since July 2007, the model version 4.0 has been running. The model runs in an operational mode at 14-km grid spacing, twice a day (00 UTC, 12 UTC). For scientific research also model with 7-km grid spacing is ran. Monthly and seasonally verification for the 24-hours (06 UTC - 06 UTC) accumulated precipitation is presented in this paper. The precipitation field of COSMO_LM had been verified against rain gauges network (308 points). The verification had been made for every month and all seasons from December 2007 to December 2008. The verification was made for three forecast days for selected thresholds: 0.5, 1, 2.5, 5, 10, 20, 25, 30 mm. Following indices from contingency table were calculated: FBI (bias), POD (probability of detection), PON (probability of detection of non event), FAR (False alarm rate), TSS (True sill statistic), HSS (Heidke skill score), ETS (Equitable skill score). Also percentile ranks and ROC-relative operating characteristic are presented. The ROC is a graph of the hit rate (Y-axis) against false alarm rate (X-axis) for different decision thresholds.

Tailored high-resolution numerical weather forecasts for energy efficient predictive building control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauch, V. J.; Gwerder, M.; Gyalistras, D.; Oldewurtel, F.; Schubiger, F.; Steiner, P.

2010-09-01

The high proportion of the total primary energy consumption by buildings has increased the public interest in the optimisation of buildings' operation and is also driving the development of novel control approaches for the indoor climate. In this context, the use of weather forecasts presents an interesting and - thanks to advances in information and predictive control technologies and the continuous improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models - an increasingly attractive option for improved building control. Within the research project OptiControl (www.opticontrol.ethz.ch) predictive control strategies for a wide range of buildings, heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, and representative locations in Europe are being investigated with the aid of newly developed modelling and simulation tools. Grid point predictions for radiation, temperature and humidity of the high-resolution limited area NWP model COSMO-7 (see www.cosmo-model.org) and local measurements are used as disturbances and inputs into the building system. The control task considered consists in minimizing energy consumption whilst maintaining occupant comfort. In this presentation, we use the simulation-based OptiControl methodology to investigate the impact of COSMO-7 forecasts on the performance of predictive building control and the resulting energy savings. For this, we have selected building cases that were shown to benefit from a prediction horizon of up to 3 days and therefore, are particularly suitable for the use of numerical weather forecasts. We show that the controller performance is sensitive to the quality of the weather predictions, most importantly of the incident radiation on differently oriented façades. However, radiation is characterised by a high temporal and spatial variability in part caused by small scale and fast changing cloud formation and dissolution processes being only partially represented in the COSMO-7 grid point predictions. On the other hand, buildings are affected by particularly local weather conditions at the building site. To overcome this discrepancy, we make use of local measurements to statistically adapt the COSMO-7 model output to the meteorological conditions at the building. For this, we have developed a general correction algorithm that exploits systematic properties of the COSMO-7 prediction error and explicitly estimates the degree of temporal autocorrelation using online recursive estimation. The resulting corrected predictions are improved especially for the first few hours being the most crucial for the predictive controller and, ultimately for the reduction of primary energy consumption using predictive control. The use of numerical weather forecasts in predictive building automation is one example in a wide field of weather dependent advanced energy saving technologies. Our work particularly highlights the need for the development of specifically tailored weather forecast products by (statistical) postprocessing in order to meet the requirements of specific applications.

Comprehensive Study on the Impact of the Cation Alkyl Side Chain Length on the Solubility of Water in Ionic Liquids.

PubMed

Kurnia, Kiki A; Neves, Catarina M S S; Freire, Mara G; Santos, Luís M N B F; Coutinho, João A P

2015-10-01

A comprehensive study on the phase behaviour of two sets of ionic liquids (ILs) and their interactions with water is here presented through combining experimental and theoretical approaches. The impact of the alkyl side chain length and the cation symmetry on the water solubility in the asymmetric [C N- 1 C 1 im][NTf 2 ] and symmetric [C N- 1 C N- 1 im][NTf 2 ] series of ILs ( N up to 22), from 288.15 K to 318.15 K and at atmospheric pressure, was studied. The experimental data reveal that the solubility of water in ILs with an asymmetric cation is higher than in those with the symmetric isomer. Several trend shifts on the water solubility as a function of the alkyl side chain length were identified, namely at [C 6 C 1 im][NTf 2 ] for asymmetric ILs and at [C 4 C 4 im][NTf 2 ] and [C 7 C 7 im][NTf 2 ] for the symmetric ILs. To complement the experimental data and to further investigate the molecular-level mechanisms behind the dissolution process, Density Functional Theory calculations, using the Conductor-like Screening Model for Real Solvents (COSMO-RS) and the Electrostatic potential-derived CHelpG, were performed. The COSMO-RS model is able to qualitatively predict water solubility as function of temperature and alkyl chain lengths of both symmetric and asymmetric cations. Furthermore, the model is also capable to predict the somewhat higher water solubility in the asymmetric cation, as well as the trend shift as function of alkyl chain lengths experimentally observed. Both COSMO-RS and the electrostatic potential-derived CHelpG show that the interactions of water and the IL cation take place on the IL polar region, namely on the aromatic head and adjacent methylene groups what explains the differences in water solubility observed for cations with different chain lengths. Furthermore, the CHelpG calculations for the isolated cations in the gas phase indicates that the trend shift of water solubility as function of alkyl chain lengths and the difference of water solubility in symmetric may also result from the partial positive charge distribution/contribution of the cation.

CosmoQuest MoonMappers: Citizen Lunar Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gay, P. L.; Antonenko, I.; Robbins, S. J.; Bracey, G.; Lehan, C.; Moore, J.; Huang, D.

2012-09-01

The MoonMappers citizen science project is part of CosmoQuest, a virtual research facility designed for the public. CosmoQuest seeks to take the best aspects of a research center - research, seminars, journal clubs, and community discussions - and provide them to a community of citizen scientists through a virtual facility. MoonMappers was the first citizen science project within CosmoQuest, and is being used to define best practices in getting the public to effectively learn and do science.

Engaging Scientists with the CosmoQuest Citizen Science Virtual Research Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grier, Jennifer A.; Gay, Pamela L.; Buxner, Sanlyn; Noel-Storr, Jacob; CosmoQuest Team

2016-10-01

NASA Science Mission Directorate missions and research return more data than subject matter experts (SMEs - scientists and engineers) can effectively utilize. Citizen scientist volunteers represent a robust pool of energy and talent that SMEs can draw upon to advance projects that require the processing of large quantities of images, and other data. The CosmoQuest Virtual Research Facility has developed roles and pathways to engage SMEs in ways that advance the education of the general public while producing science results publishable in peer-reviewed journals, including through the CosmoQuest Facility Small Grants Program and CosmoAcademy. Our Facility Small Grants Program is open to SMEs to fund them to work with CosmoQuest and engage the public in analysis. Ideal projects have a specific and well-defined need for additional eyes and minds to conduct basic analysis and data collection (such as crater counting, identifying lineaments, etc.) Projects selected will undergo design and implementation as Citizen Science Portals, and citizen scientists will be recruited and trained to complete the project. Users regularly receive feedback on the quality of their data. Data returned will be analyzed by the SME and the CQ Science Team for joint publication in a peer-reviewed journal. SMEs are also invited to consider presenting virtual learning courses in the subjects of their choice in CosmoAcademy. The audience for CosmoAcademy are lifelong-learners and education professionals. Classes are capped at 10, 15, or 20 students. CosmoAcademy can also produce video material to archive seminars long-term. SMEs function as advisors in many other areas of CosmoQuest, including the Educator's Zone (curricular materials for K-12 teachers), Science Fair Projects, and programs that partner to produce material for podcasts and planetaria. Visit the CosmoQuest website at cosmoquest.org to learn more, and to investigate current opportunities to engage with us. CosmoQuest is funded through individual donations, through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AC68A, and through additional grants and contracts that are listed on the About page of our website, cosmoquest.org.

An operational real-time flood forecasting system in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz, Enrique; Coccia, Gabriele; Todini, Ezio

2015-04-01

A real-time flood forecasting system has been operating since year 2012 as a non-structural measure for mitigating the flood risk in Campania Region (Southern Italy), within the Sele river basin (3.240 km2). The Sele Flood Forecasting System (SFFS) has been built within the FEWS (Flood Early Warning System) platform developed by Deltares and it assimilates the numerical weather predictions of the COSMO LAM family: the deterministic COSMO-LAMI I2, the deterministic COSMO-LAMI I7 and the ensemble numerical weather predictions COSMO-LEPS (16 members). Sele FFS is composed by a cascade of three main models. The first model is a fully continuous physically based distributed hydrological model, named TOPKAPI-eXtended (Idrologia&Ambiente s.r.l., Naples, Italy), simulating the dominant processes controlling the soil water dynamics, runoff generation and discharge with a spatial resolution of 250 m. The second module is a set of Neural-Networks (ANN) built for forecasting the river stages at a set of monitored cross-sections. The third component is a Model Conditional Processor (MCP), which provides the predictive uncertainty (i.e., the probability of occurrence of a future flood event) within the framework of a multi-temporal forecast, according to the most recent advancements on this topic (Coccia and Todini, HESS, 2011). The MCP provides information about the probability of exceedance of a maximum river stage within the forecast lead time, by means of a discrete time function representing the variation of cumulative probability of exceeding a river stage during the forecast lead time and the distribution of the time occurrence of the flood peak, starting from one or more model forecasts. This work shows the Sele FFS performance after two years of operation, evidencing the added-values that can provide to a flood early warning and emergency management system.

78 FR 49993 - National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan; National Priorities List...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-16

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Enhanced free energy of extraction of Eu3+ and Am3+ ions towards diglycolamide appended calix[4]arene: insights from DFT-D3 and COSMO-RS solvation models.

PubMed

Ali, Sk Musharaf

2017-08-22

Density functional theory in conjunction with COSMO and COSMO-RS solvation models employing dispersion correction (DFT-D3) has been applied to gain an insight into the complexation of Eu 3+ /Am 3+ with diglycolamide (DGA) and calix[4]arene appended diglycolamide (CAL4DGA) in ionic liquids by studying structures, energetics, thermodynamics and population analysis. The calculated Gibbs free energy for both Eu 3+ and Am 3+ ions with DGA was found to be smaller than that with CAL4DGA. The entropy of complexation was also found to be reduced to a large extent with DGA compared to complexation with CAL4DGA. The solution phase free energy was found to be negative and was higher for Eu 3+ ion. The entropy of complexation was not only found to be further reduced but also became negative in the case of DGA alone. Though the entropy was found to be negative it could not outweigh the high negative enthalpic contribution. The same trend was observed in the solution where the free energy of extraction, ΔG, for Eu 3+ ions was shown to be higher than that for Am 3+ ions towards free DGA. But the values of ΔG and ΔΔG(= ΔG Eu -ΔG Am ) were found to be much higher with CAL4DGA (-12.58 kcal mol -1 ) in the presence of nitrate ions compared to DGA (-1.69 kcal mol -1 ) due to enhanced electronic interaction and positive entropic contribution. Furthermore, both the COSMO and COSMO-RS models predict very close values of ΔΔΔG (= ΔΔG CAL4DGA - ΔΔG nDGA ), indicating that both solvation models could be applied for evaluating the metal ion selectivity. The value of the reaction free energy was found to be higher after dispersion correction. The charge on the Eu and Am atoms for the complexes with DGA and CAL4DGA indicates the charge-dipole type interaction leading to strong binding energy. The present theoretical results support the experimental findings and thus might be of importance in the design of functionalized ligands.

Mesoscale atmospheric modelling technology as a tool for the long-term meteorological dataset development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platonov, Vladimir; Kislov, Alexander; Rivin, Gdaly; Varentsov, Mikhail; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Chumakov, Mikhail

2017-04-01

The detailed hydrodynamic modelling of meteorological parameters during the last 30 years (1985 - 2014) was performed for the Okhotsk Sea and the Sakhalin island regions. The regional non-hydrostatic atmospheric model COSMO-CLM used for this long-term simulation with 13.2, 6.6 and 2.2 km horizontal resolutions. The main objective of creation this dataset was the outlook of the investigation of statistical characteristics and the physical mechanisms of extreme weather events (primarily, wind speed extremes) on the small spatio-temporal scales. COSMO-CLM is the climate version of the well-known mesoscale COSMO model, including some modifications and extensions adapting to the long-term numerical experiments. The downscaling technique was realized and developed for the long-term simulations with three consequent nesting domains. ERA-Interim reanalysis ( 0.75 degrees resolution) used as global forcing data for the starting domain ( 13.2 km horizontal resolution), then these simulation data used as initial and boundary conditions for the next model runs over the domain with 6.6 km resolution, and similarly, for the next step to 2.2 km domain. Besides, the COSMO-CLM model configuration for 13.2 km run included the spectral nudging technique, i.e. an additional assimilation of reanalysis data not only at boundaries, but also inside the whole domain. Practically, this computational scheme realized on the SGI Altix 4700 supercomputer system in the Main Computer Center of Roshydromet and used 2,400 hours of CPU time total. According to modelling results, the verification of the obtained dataset was performed on the observation data. Estimations showed the mean error -0.5 0C, up to 2 - 3 0C RMSE in temperature, and overestimation in wind speed (RMSE is up to 2 m/s). Overall, analysis showed that the used downscaling technique with applying the COSMO-CLM model reproduced the meteorological conditions, spatial distribution, seasonal and synoptic variability of temperature and wind speed for the study area adequately. The dependences between reproduction quality of mesoscale atmospheric circulation features and the horizontal resolution of the model were revealed. In particular, it is shown that the use of 6 km resolution does not give any significant improvement comparing to 13 km resolution, whereas 2.2 km resolution provides an appreciable quality enhancement. Detailed synoptic analysis of extreme wind speed situations identified the main types of favorable to their genesis, associated with developing of cyclones over the Japan Islands or the Primorsky Kray of Russia, and penetration of intensified cyclones from Pacific Ocean through the Kamchatka peninsula, Kuril or Japan Islands. The obtained dataset will continue to be used for a full and comprehensive analysis of the reproduction quality of hydrometeorological fields, their statistical estimates, climatological trends and many other objectives.

Coarse-Grained Models for Automated Fragmentation and Parametrization of Molecular Databases.

PubMed

Fraaije, Johannes G E M; van Male, Jan; Becherer, Paul; Serral Gracià, Rubèn

2016-12-27

We calibrate coarse-grained interaction potentials suitable for screening large data sets in top-down fashion. Three new algorithms are introduced: (i) automated decomposition of molecules into coarse-grained units (fragmentation); (ii) Coarse-Grained Reference Interaction Site Model-Hypernetted Chain (CG RISM-HNC) as an intermediate proxy for dissipative particle dynamics (DPD); and (iii) a simple top-down coarse-grained interaction potential/model based on activity coefficient theories from engineering (using COSMO-RS). We find that the fragment distribution follows Zipf and Heaps scaling laws. The accuracy in Gibbs energy of mixing calculations is a few tenths of a kilocalorie per mole. As a final proof of principle, we use full coarse-grained sampling through DPD thermodynamics integration to calculate log P OW for 4627 compounds with an average error of 0.84 log unit. The computational speeds per calculation are a few seconds for CG RISM-HNC and a few minutes for DPD thermodynamic integration.

CosmoQuest: Creative Engagement & Citizen Science Ignite Authentic Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, W. H.; Noel-Storr, J.; Tweed, A.; Asplund, S.; Aiello, M. P.; Lebofsky, L. A.; Chilton, H.; Gay, P.

2016-12-01

The CosmoQuest Virtual Research Facility offers in-depth experiences to diverse audiences nationally and internationally through pioneering citizen science. An endeavor between universities, research institutes, and NASA centers, CosmoQuest brings together scientists, educators, researchers, programmers—and individuals of all ages—to explore and make sense of our solar system and beyond. CosmoQuest creates pathways for engaging diverse audiences in authentic science, encouraging scientists to engage with learners, and learners to engage with scientists. Here is a sequence of activities developed by CosmoQuest, leveraging a NASA Discovery and New Frontiers Programs activity developed for the general STEAM community, that activates STEM learning. The Spark: Igniting Curiosity Art and the Cosmic Connection uses the elements of art—shape, line, color, texture, value—to hone observation skills and inspire questions. Learners explore NASA image data from celestial bodies in our solar system—planets, asteroids, moons. They investigate their geology, analyzing features and engaging in scientific discourse rising from evidence while creating a beautiful piece of art. The Fuel: Making Connections Crater Comparisons explore authentic NASA image data sets, engrossing learners at a deeper level. With skills learned in Art and the Cosmic Connection, learners analyze specific image sets with the feedback of mission team members. The Burn: Evolving Community Become a Solar System Mapper. Investigate and analyze NASA mission image data of Mars, Mercury, the Moon and Vesta through CosmoQuest's citizen science projects. Learners make real-world connections while contributing to NASA science. Scaffolded by an educational framework that inspires 21st century learners, CosmoQuest engages people in analyzing and interpreting real NASA data, inspiring questions, defining problems, and realizing their potential to contribute to genuine scientific results. Through social channels, CosmoQuest empowers and expands its community, including science and education-focused hangouts, virtual star parties, and diverse social media. CosmoQuest offers a hub for excellent resources throughout NASA and the larger astronomy community and fosters the conversations they inspire.

Multifractal evaluation of simulated precipitation intensities from the COSMO NWP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfensberger, Daniel; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Berne, Alexis

2017-12-01

The framework of universal multifractals (UM) characterizes the spatio-temporal variability in geophysical data over a wide range of scales with only a limited number of scale-invariant parameters. This work aims to clarify the link between multifractals (MFs) and more conventional weather descriptors and to show how they can be used to perform a multi-scale evaluation of model data. The first part of this work focuses on a MF analysis of the climatology of precipitation intensities simulated by the COSMO numerical weather prediction model. Analysis of the spatial structure of the MF parameters, and their correlations with external meteorological and topographical descriptors, reveals that simulated precipitation tends to be smoother at higher altitudes, and that the mean intermittency is mostly influenced by the latitude. A hierarchical clustering was performed on the external descriptors, yielding three different clusters, which correspond roughly to Alpine/continental, Mediterranean and temperate regions. Distributions of MF parameters within these three clusters are shown to be statistically significantly different, indicating that the MF signature of rain is indeed geographically dependent. The second part of this work is event-based and focuses on the smaller scales. The MF parameters of precipitation intensities at the ground are compared with those obtained from the Swiss radar composite during three events corresponding to typical synoptic conditions over Switzerland. The results of this analysis show that the COSMO simulations exhibit spatial scaling breaks that are not present in the radar data, indicating that the model is not able to simulate the observed variability at all scales. A comparison of the operational one-moment microphysical parameterization scheme of COSMO with a more advanced two-moment scheme reveals that, while no scheme systematically outperforms the other, the two-moment scheme tends to produce larger extreme values and more discontinuous precipitation fields, which agree better with the radar composite.

In silico prediction of medium effects on esterification equilibrium using the COSMO-RS method.

PubMed

Fermeglia, Maurizio; Braiuca, Paolo; Gardossi, Lucia; Pricl, Sabrina; Halling, Peter J

2006-01-01

This paper presents a new approach for predicting solvent effects on esterification reactions of industrial importance in the field of biocatalysis. The COSMO-RS method has been used to calculate the activity coefficients of the chemical species involved in various reactions, carried out in different solvents. For comparison we also used the traditional UNIFAC method. Three lipase-catalyzed esterifications were considered: (1) 1-dodecanoic acid with menthol in n-hexane, n-heptane, cyclohexane, 2,2,4-trimethylpentane, toluene, acetonitrile, and 2-methyl-2-butanol; (2) 1-dodecanoic acid and 1-dodecanol in n-hexane, n-heptane, cyclohexane, 2,2,4-trimethylpentane, and toluene; and (3) glycerol and n-octanoic acid in acetonitrile, benzene, and toluene and in the neat reaction mixture (without any solvent). Predicted activities were used to calculate the thermodynamic equilibrium ratio. This should be independent of medium, and the variation in COSMO-RS values is at most 9-fold (corresponding to a DeltaG degrees of about 5.5 kJ/mol, which would still be a very useful prediction) and often only 2-fold (corresponding to less than 2 kJ/mol or 0.5 kcal/mol, therefore comparable with experimental error). UNIFAC is weaker, especially when important roles are played by conformational freedom, intramolecular interactions, strong polar effects, and charge distribution of molecules in the mixture. The relative percent deviations from the mean of equilibrium constants in different solvents range between 17 and 49 for COSMO-RS versus 32 to 65 for UNIFAC. The COSMO-RS method opens up new perspectives for the development of theoretical models for solvent selection with general applicability.

Fire risk and air pollution assessment during the 2007 wildfire events in Greece using the COSMO-ART atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athanasopoulou, E.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Vogel, H.; Rieger, D.; Knote, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Vogel, B.; Karali, A.

2012-04-01

During 2007, Greece experienced an extreme summer and the worst natural hazard in its modern history. Soil dehydration, following a prolonged dry period in combination with hot temperatures and strong winds, yielded favorable conditions for the ignition and spread of wild fires that burnt approximately 200,000 ha of vegetated land (Founda and Gianakopoulos, 2009; Sifakis et al., 2011). The relationship between meteorology and fire potential can be provided by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is already found applicable in the fire activity of the Mediterranean region (Carvalho et al., 2008). However, lack of meteorological data or remote fire spots can be sources of uncertainties for fire risk estimation. In addition to the direct fire damage, these fires produced large quantities of gaseous air pollutants and particles (PM10) dispersed over the area of Greece. Indeed, PM10 concentration measurements showed two pollution episodes over Athens during late August and early September, 2007 (Liu et al., 2009). Nevertheless, these measurements neither show the large spatial extent of fire effects nor reveal its important role on atmospheric chemistry. In the current study, the application of the atmospheric model COSMO-ART is used to investigate the issues addressed above. COSMO-ART (Vogel et al. 2009) is a regional chemistry transport model (ART stands for Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) online-coupled to the COSMO regional numerical weather prediction and climate model (Baldauf et al. 2011). The current simulations are performed between August 15 and September 15 over Greece with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical extend up to 20 km. The initial and boundary meteorological conditions are derived from a coarser COSMO simulation performed by the German Weather Service. Fire emissions are retrieved from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (van der Werf et al., 2010). The anthropogenic emission database used is the TNO/MACC (Kuenen et al. 2011), while biogenic emissions are calculated online (Vogel et al. 1995). The FWI is calculated from air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation data obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service for several sites in proximity to the fire event areas. In parallel, these data serve as evaluation for the respective model predictions. The satisfactory comparison results enable the FWI calculation using the model data over the burnt areas, where observations are missing. The effect of these fire events on atmospheric chemistry is estimated by analyzing the predictions not only for the mainly affected primary species (carbon monoxide, methane, non-methane hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and elemental carbon), but also for the secondary pollutants (ozone, organic and nitrate aerosol). The competence of COSMO-ART mass predictions is evaluated by comparing PM10 outputs with published literature results. The weather conditions during the 2007 wildfire events have already been assessed as a typical summertime meteorological regime during the latter part of the century (Founda and Gianakopoulos, 2009). Therefore, the results presented here can be viewed as representative of a fire event likely to occur by then. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIMRUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010-265192.

An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, N.; Jaun, S.; Zappa, M.

2011-01-01

The Sihl River flows through Zurich, Switzerland's most populated city, for which it represents the largest flood threat. To anticipate extreme discharge events and provide decision support in case of flood risk, a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) was launched operationally in 2008. This models chain relies on limited-area atmospheric forecasts provided by the deterministic model COSMO-7 and the probabilistic model COSMO-LEPS. These atmospheric forecasts are used to force a semi-distributed hydrological model (PREVAH), coupled to a hydraulic model (FLORIS). The resulting hydrological forecasts are eventually communicated to the stakeholders involved in the Sihl discharge management. This fully operational setting provides a real framework to compare the potential of deterministic and probabilistic discharge forecasts for flood mitigation. To study the suitability of HEPS for small-scale basins and to quantify the added-value conveyed by the probability information, a reforecast was made for the period June 2007 to December 2009 for the Sihl catchment (336 km2). Several metrics support the conclusion that the performance gain can be of up to 2 days lead time for the catchment considered. Brier skill scores show that COSMO-LEPS-based hydrological forecasts overall outperform their COSMO-7 based counterparts for all the lead times and event intensities considered. The small size of the Sihl catchment does not prevent skillful discharge forecasts, but makes them particularly dependent on correct precipitation forecasts, as shown by comparisons with a reference run driven by observed meteorological parameters. Our evaluation stresses that the capacity of the model to provide confident and reliable mid-term probability forecasts for high discharges is limited. The two most intense events of the study period are investigated utilising a novel graphical representation of probability forecasts and used to generate high discharge scenarios. They highlight challenges for making decisions on the basis of hydrological predictions, and indicate the need for a tool to be used in addition to forecasts to compare the different mitigation actions possible in the Sihl catchment.

Simulations of Moscow megacity heat island with the COSMO-CLM model using two different urban canopy schemes and realistic building parameters, derived from OpenStreetMap data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varentsov, Mikhail; Wouters, Hendrik; Trusilova, Kristina; Samsonov, Timofey; Konstantinov, Pavel

2017-04-01

In this study we present the application of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM to simulate urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon for Moscow megacity, which is the biggest agglomeration in Europe (with modern population of more than 17 million people). Significant differences of Moscow from the cities of Western Europe are related with much more continental climate with higher diurnal and annual temperature variations, and with specific building features such as its high density and almost total predominance of high-rise and low-rise blocks of flats on the private low-rise houses. Because of these building and climate features, the UHI of Moscow megacity is stronger than UHIs of many other cities of the similar size, with a mean intensity is about 2 °C and maximum intensity reaching up to 13 °C (Lokoschenko, 2014). Such a pronounced UHI together with the existence of an extensive observation network (more than 50 weather and air quality monitoring stations and few microwave temperature profilers) within the city and its surrounding make Moscow an especially interesting place for urban climate researches and good testbed for urban canopy models. In our numerical experiments, regional climate model firstly was adapted for investigated region with aim to improve quality of its simulations of rural areas. Then, to take into account urban canopy effects on thermal regime of the urbanized areas, we used two different versions of COSMO-CLM model. First is coupled with TEB (Town Energy Balance) single layer urban canopy model (Trusilova, 2013), and second is extended with bulk urban canopy scheme TERRA_URB using the Semi-empircal URban-canopY dependency parametriation SURY (Wouters et. al, 2016). Numerical experiments with these two versions of the model were run with spatial resolution about 1 km for several summer and winter months. To provide specific parameters, required for urban parameterizations, such as urban fraction, building height and street canyon aspect ratio, we used originally technology of GIS-based processing of realistic OpenStreetMap data, which includes size and shape of the most of the in the city (Samsonov et al., 2015). Our testbed allows to make more detailed comparison between the modelling approaches, and also reveals the importance of correct definition of the of turbulent mixing in the ABL in the atmospheric model, and the realistic specification of the building morphology parameters and anthropogenic heat fluxes. In addition, strong seasonal variation of the importance of different factors, responsible for UHI appearance, was shown. Moreover, the framework allows to identify and solve issues regarding the different model approaches: detailed analysis of spatial and temporal variations of modelled urban temperature anomalies and their vertical extent has shown that version of COSMO-CLM model with TERRA-URB scheme simulate UHI effect in more realistic way. Research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) and Russian Geographic Society (RGS): RFBR projects № 16-35-00474, 15-35-21129 and 16-05-00704 A, RGS-RFBR project № 13-05-41306. References: 1. Lokoshchenko, M. A. (2014). Urban 'heat island' in Moscow. Urban Climate, 10, 550-562. 2. Samsonov, T. E., Konstantinov, P. I., & Varentsov, M. I. (2015). Object-oriented approach to urban canyon analysis and its applications in meteorological modeling. Urban Climate, 13, 122-139. 3. Trusilova K., Früh, B., Brienen, S., Walter, A., Masson, V., Pigeon, G., Becker, P. Implementation of an Urban Parameterization Scheme into the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM// Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 2013. Vol. 52. P. 2296-2311. 4. Wouters, H., Demuzere, M., Blahak, U., Fortuniak, K., Maiheu, B., Camps, J., & van Lipzig, N. P. (2016). The efficient urban canopy dependency parametrization (SURY) v1.0 for atmospheric modelling: description and application with the COSMO-CLM model for a Belgian summer. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3027-3054.

COSMO 09

ScienceCinema

None

2018-02-13

This year's edition of the annual Cosmo International Conference on Particle Physics and Cosmology -- Cosmo09 -- will be hosted by the CERN Theory Group from Monday September 7 till Friday September 11, 2009. The conference will take place at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). The Cosmo series is one of the major venues of interaction between cosmologists and particle physicists. In the exciting LHC era, the Conference will be devoted to the modern interfaces between Fundamental and Phenomenological Particle Physics and Physical Cosmology and Astronomy. The Conference will be followed by the CERN TH Institute Particle Cosmology which will take place from Monday September 14 till Friday September 18, 2009. The CERN-TH Institutes are visitor programs intended to bring together scientists with similar interests and to promote scientific collaborations. If you wish to participate, please register on the Institute web page. Link to last editions: COSMO 07 (U. of Sussex), COSMO 08 (U. of Wisconsin) List of plenary speakers: Gianfranco Bertone, Pierre Binetruy, Francois Bouchet, Juerg Diemand, Jonathan Feng, Gregory Gabadadze, Francis Halzen, Steen Hannestad, Will Kinney, Johannes Knapp, Hiranya Peiris, Will Percival, Syksy Rasanen, Alexandre Refregier, Pierre Salati, Roman Scoccimarro, Michael Schubnell, Christian Spiering, Neil Spooner, Andrew Tolley, Matteo Viel. The plenary program is available on-line.

Towards Cloud-Resolving European-Scale Climate Simulations using a fully GPU-enabled Prototype of the COSMO Regional Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, David; Fuhrer, Oliver; Cumming, Benjamin; Lapillonne, Xavier; Gysi, Tobias; Lüthi, Daniel; Osuna, Carlos; Schär, Christoph

2014-05-01

The representation of moist convection is a major shortcoming of current global and regional climate models. State-of-the-art global models usually operate at grid spacings of 10-300 km, and therefore cannot fully resolve the relevant upscale and downscale energy cascades. Therefore parametrization of the relevant sub-grid scale processes is required. Several studies have shown that this approach entails major uncertainties for precipitation processes, which raises concerns about the model's ability to represent precipitation statistics and associated feedback processes, as well as their sensitivities to large-scale conditions. Further refining the model resolution to the kilometer scale allows representing these processes much closer to first principles and thus should yield an improved representation of the water cycle including the drivers of extreme events. Although cloud-resolving simulations are very useful tools for climate simulations and numerical weather prediction, their high horizontal resolution and consequently the small time steps needed, challenge current supercomputers to model large domains and long time scales. The recent innovations in the domain of hybrid supercomputers have led to mixed node designs with a conventional CPU and an accelerator such as a graphics processing unit (GPU). GPUs relax the necessity for cache coherency and complex memory hierarchies, but have a larger system memory-bandwidth. This is highly beneficial for low compute intensity codes such as atmospheric stencil-based models. However, to efficiently exploit these hybrid architectures, climate models need to be ported and/or redesigned. Within the framework of the Swiss High Performance High Productivity Computing initiative (HP2C) a project to port the COSMO model to hybrid architectures has recently come to and end. The product of these efforts is a version of COSMO with an improved performance on traditional x86-based clusters as well as hybrid architectures with GPUs. We present our redesign and porting approach as well as our experience and lessons learned. Furthermore, we discuss relevant performance benchmarks obtained on the new hybrid Cray XC30 system "Piz Daint" installed at the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS), both in terms of time-to-solution as well as energy consumption. We will demonstrate a first set of short cloud-resolving climate simulations at the European-scale using the GPU-enabled COSMO prototype and elaborate our future plans on how to exploit this new model capability.

Moving People from Science Adjacent to Science Doers with Twitch.tv

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gay, Pamela L.; CosmoQuest

2017-10-01

The CosmoQuest community is testing the ability to attract people from playing online videogames to doing fully online citizen science by engaging people through the Twitch.tv streaming platform. Twitch.tv launched in 2011 as an online platform for video gamers to stream their gameplay while providing narrative. In its six years of regular growth, the platform has added support for people playing non-video games, and for those participating in non-game activities. As part of their expansion, in April 2017, Twitch.tv hosted a science week during which they streamed the Cosmos series and allowed different feeds provide real-time commentary. They also hosted panel discussions on a variety of science topics. CosmoQuest participated in this event and used it as a jumping off point for beginning to interact with Twitch.tv community members online. With CosmoQuest’s beta launch of Image Detectives, they expanded their use of this streaming platform to include regular “office hours”, during which team members did science with CosmoQuest’s online projects, took questions from community members, and otherwise promoted the CosmoQuest community. This presentation examines this case study, and looks at how well different kinds of Twitter engagements attracted audiences, the conversion rate from viewer to subscriber, and at how effectively CosmoQuest was able to migrate users from viewing citizen science on Twitch.tv to participating in citizen science on CosmoQuest.org.This project was supported through NASA cooperative agreement NNX17AD20A.

A High-resolution Reanalysis for the European CORDEX Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentzien, Sabrina; Bollmeyer, Christoph; Crewell, Susanne; Friederichs, Petra; Hense, Andreas; Keller, Jan; Keune, Jessica; Kneifel, Stefan; Ohlwein, Christian; Pscheidt, Ieda; Redl, Stephanie; Steinke, Sandra

2014-05-01

A High-resolution Reanalysis for the European CORDEX Region Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. The work presented here focuses on the regional reanalysis for Europe with a domain matching the CORDEX-EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km). The COSMO reanalysis system comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO and is complemented by a special soil moisture analysis and boundary conditions given by ERA-interim data. The reanalysis data set currently covers 6 years (2007-2012). The evaluation of the reanalyses is done using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations. The development and evaluation of the COSMO-based reanalysis for the CORDEX-Euro domain can be seen as a preparation for joint European activities on the development of an ensemble system of regional reanalyses for Europe.

Observing floods from space: Experience gained from COSMO-SkyMed observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierdicca, N.; Pulvirenti, L.; Chini, M.; Guerriero, L.; Candela, L.

2013-03-01

The COSMO-SkyMed mission offers a unique opportunity to obtain all weather radar images characterized by short revisit time, thus being useful for flood evolution mapping. The COSMO-SkyMed system has been activated several times in the last few years in occasion of flood events all over the world in order to provide very high resolution X-band SAR images useful for flood detection purposes. This paper discusses the major outcomes of the experience gained, within the framework of the OPERA Pilot Project funded by the Italian Space Agency, from using COSMO-SkyMed data for the purpose of near real time generation of flood maps. A review of the mechanisms which determine the imprints of the inundation on the radar images and of the fundamental simulation tools able to predict these imprints and help image interpretation is provided. The approach developed to process the data and to generate the flood maps is also summarized. Then, the paper illustrates the experience gained with COSMO-SkyMed by describing and discussing a number of significant examples. These examples demonstrate the potential of the COSMO-SkyMed system and the suitability of the approach developed for generating the final products, but they also highlight some critical aspects that require further investigations to improve the reliability of the flood maps.

CosmoQuest: Exploring the Needs of Current & Future Citizen Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bracey, G.; Glushko, A.; Bakerman, M. N.; Gay, P.; Buxner, S.

2016-12-01

The CosmoQuest Virtual Research Facility aims to engage and support professional scientists and the general public-including parents, children, teachers, and students-in learning and doing science. Through the facility's online portal (cosmoquest.org), anyone with internet access can participate in NASA Science Mission Directorate related research by engaging in several online citizen science projects. To support this endeavor, the CosmoQuest team is developing a variety of programs, opportunities, and resources that parallel those available in real-world institutions and that have the potential to reach and impact a large and diverse audience. In order to guide this development and ensure the success of the facility, it is essential to assess the needs of the growing CosmoQuest community. In this presentation, we present the results of a suite of online surveys designed to gauge the interests, motivations, and needs of several groups within the CosmoQuest Community : teachers, parents, adult learners, planetarium professionals, subject matter experts (SMEs), and the general public. Each survey was targeted to a particular group and a particular CosmoQuest program. All surveys asked about attitudes towards technology and social media use. Basic demographics were also collected. We discuss the needs of the various groups and share plans for meeting these needs.

Hydrogen bond basicity of ionic liquids and molar entropy of hydration of salts as major descriptors in the formation of aqueous biphasic systems.

PubMed

Passos, Helena; Dinis, Teresa B V; Cláudio, Ana Filipa M; Freire, Mara G; Coutinho, João A P

2018-05-23

Aqueous biphasic systems (ABS) composed of ionic liquids (ILs) and conventional salts have been largely investigated and successfully used in separation processes, for which the determination of the corresponding ternary phase diagrams is a prerequisite. However, due the large number of ILs that can be prepared and their high structural versatility, it is impossible to experimentally cover and characterize all possible combinations of ILs and salts that may form ABS. The development of tools for the prediction and design of IL-based ABS is thus a crucial requirement. Based on a large compilation of experimental data, a correlation describing the formation of IL-based ABS is shown here, based on the hydrogen-bonding interaction energies of ILs (EHB) obtained by the COnductor-like Screening MOdel for Real Solvents (COSMO-RS) and the molar entropy of hydration of the salt ions. The ability of the proposed model to predict the formation of novel IL-based ABS is further ascertained.

Alternative Bio-Based Solvents for Extraction of Fat and Oils: Solubility Prediction, Global Yield, Extraction Kinetics, Chemical Composition and Cost of Manufacturing

PubMed Central

Sicaire, Anne-Gaëlle; Vian, Maryline; Fine, Frédéric; Joffre, Florent; Carré, Patrick; Tostain, Sylvain; Chemat, Farid

2015-01-01

The present study was designed to evaluate the performance of alternative bio-based solvents, more especially 2-methyltetrahydrofuran, obtained from crop’s byproducts for the substitution of petroleum solvents such as hexane in the extraction of fat and oils for food (edible oil) and non-food (bio fuel) applications. First a solvent selection as well as an evaluation of the performance was made with Hansen Solubility Parameters and the COnductor-like Screening MOdel for Realistic Solvation (COSMO-RS) simulations. Experiments were performed on rapeseed oil extraction at laboratory and pilot plant scale for the determination of lipid yields, extraction kinetics, diffusion modeling, and complete lipid composition in term of fatty acids and micronutrients (sterols, tocopherols and tocotrienols). Finally, economic and energetic evaluations of the process were conducted to estimate the cost of manufacturing using 2-methyltetrahydrofuran (MeTHF) as alternative solvent compared to hexane as petroleum solvent. PMID:25884332

Is there potential added value in COSMO-CLM forced by ERA reanalysis data?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenz, Claus-Jürgen; Früh, Barbara; Adalatpanah, Fatemeh Davary

2017-12-01

An application of the potential added value (PAV) concept suggested by Di Luca et al. (Clim Dyn 40:443-464, 2013a) is applied to ERA Interim driven runs of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. They are performed for the time period 1979-2013 for the EURO-CORDEX domain at horizontal grid resolutions 0.11°, 0.22°, and 0.44° such that the higher resolved model grid fits into the next coarser grid. The concept of the potential added value is applied to annual, seasonal, and monthly means of the 2 m air temperature. Results show the highest potential added value at the run with the finest grid and generally increasing PAV with increasing resolution. The potential added value strongly depends on the season as well as the region of consideration. The gain of PAV is higher enhancing the resolution from 0.44° to 0.22° than from 0.22° to 0.11°. At grid aggregations to 0.88° and 1.76° the differences in PAV between the COSMO-CLM runs on the mentioned grid resolutions are maximal. They nearly vanish at aggregations to even coarser grids. In all cases the PAV is dominated by at least 80% by its stationary part.

An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case studies and scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, N.; Jaun, S.; Fundel, F.; Zappa, M.

2011-07-01

The Sihl River flows through Zurich, Switzerland's most populated city, for which it represents the largest flood threat. To anticipate extreme discharge events and provide decision support in case of flood risk, a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) was launched operationally in 2008. This model chain relies on limited-area atmospheric forecasts provided by the deterministic model COSMO-7 and the probabilistic model COSMO-LEPS. These atmospheric forecasts are used to force a semi-distributed hydrological model (PREVAH), coupled to a hydraulic model (FLORIS). The resulting hydrological forecasts are eventually communicated to the stakeholders involved in the Sihl discharge management. This fully operational setting provides a real framework with which to compare the potential of deterministic and probabilistic discharge forecasts for flood mitigation. To study the suitability of HEPS for small-scale basins and to quantify the added-value conveyed by the probability information, a reforecast was made for the period June 2007 to December 2009 for the Sihl catchment (336 km2). Several metrics support the conclusion that the performance gain can be of up to 2 days lead time for the catchment considered. Brier skill scores show that overall COSMO-LEPS-based hydrological forecasts outperforms their COSMO-7-based counterparts for all the lead times and event intensities considered. The small size of the Sihl catchment does not prevent skillful discharge forecasts, but makes them particularly dependent on correct precipitation forecasts, as shown by comparisons with a reference run driven by observed meteorological parameters. Our evaluation stresses that the capacity of the model to provide confident and reliable mid-term probability forecasts for high discharges is limited. The two most intense events of the study period are investigated utilising a novel graphical representation of probability forecasts, and are used to generate high discharge scenarios. They highlight challenges for making decisions on the basis of hydrological predictions, and indicate the need for a tool to be used in addition to forecasts to compare the different mitigation actions possible in the Sihl catchment. No definitive conclusion on the model chain capacity to forecast flooding events endangering the city of Zurich could be drawn because of the under-sampling of extreme events. Further research on the form of the reforecasts needed to infer on floods associated to return periods of several decades, centuries, is encouraged.

Moon Zoo - Examples of Interesting Lunar Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, A. C.; Wilkinson, J.

2012-09-01

The MoonMappers citizen science project is part of CosmoQuest, a virtual research facility designed for the public. CosmoQuest seeks to take the best aspects of a research center - research, seminars, journal clubs, and community discussions - and provide them to a community of citizen scientists through a virtual facility. MoonMappers was the first citizen science project within CosmoQuest, and is being used to define best practices in getting the public to effectively learn and do science.

Secure telemonitoring system for delivering telerehabilitation therapy to enhance children's communication function to home.

PubMed

Parmanto, Bambang; Saptono, Andi; Murthi, Raymond; Safos, Charlotte; Lathan, Corinna E

2008-11-01

A secure telemonitoring system was developed to transform CosmoBot system, a stand-alone speech-language therapy software, into a telerehabilitation system. The CosmoBot system is a motivating, computer-based play character designed to enhance children's communication skills and stimulate verbal interaction during the remediation of speech and language disorders. The CosmoBot system consists of the Mission Control human interface device and Cosmo's Play and Learn software featuring a robot character named Cosmo that targets educational goals for children aged 3-5 years. The secure telemonitoring infrastructure links a distant speech-language therapist and child/parents at home or school settings. The result is a telerehabilitation system that allows a speech-language therapist to monitor children's activities at home while providing feedback and therapy materials remotely. We have developed the means for telerehabilitation of communication skills that can be implemented in children's home settings. The architecture allows the therapist to remotely monitor the children after completion of the therapy session and to provide feedback for the following session.

Influence of forest cover changes on regional weather conditions: estimations using the mesoscale model COSMO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olchev, A. V.; Rozinkina, I. A.; Kuzmina, E. V.; Nikitin, M. A.; Rivin, G. S.

2018-01-01

This modeling study intends to estimate the possible influence of forest cover change on regional weather conditions using the non-hydrostatic model COSMO. The central part of the East European Plain was selected as the ‘model region’ for the study. The results of numerical experiments conducted for the warm period of 2010 for the modeling domain covering almost the whole East European Plain showed that deforestation and afforestation processes within the selected model region of the area about 105 km2 can lead to significant changes in regional weather conditions. The deforestation processes have resulted in an increase of the air temperature and a reduction in the amount of precipitation. The afforestation processes can produce the opposite effects, as manifested in decreased air temperature and increased precipitation. Whereas a change of the air temperature is observed mainly inside of the model region, the changes of the precipitation are evident within the entire East European Plain, even in regions situated far away from the external boundaries of the model region.

Computational solvent system screening for the separation of tocopherols with centrifugal partition chromatography using deep eutectic solvent-based biphasic systems.

PubMed

Bezold, Franziska; Weinberger, Maria E; Minceva, Mirjana

2017-03-31

Tocopherols are a class of molecules with vitamin E activity. Among those, α-tocopherol is the most important vitamin E source in the human diet. The purification of tocopherols involving biphasic liquid systems can be challenging since these vitamins are poorly soluble in water. Deep eutectic solvents (DES) can be used to form water-free biphasic systems and have already proven applicable for centrifugal partition chromatography separations. In this work, a computational solvent system screening was performed using the predictive thermodynamic model COSMO-RS. Liquid-liquid equilibria of solvent systems composed of alkanes, alcohols and DES, as well as partition coefficients of α-tocopherol, β-tocopherol, γ-tocopherol, and σ-tocopherol in these biphasic solvent systems were calculated. From the results the best suited biphasic solvent system, namely heptane/ethanol/choline chloride-1,4-butanediol, was chosen and a batch injection of a tocopherol mixture, mainly consisting of α- and γ-tocopherol, was performed using a centrifugal partition chromatography set up (SCPE 250-BIO). A separation factor of 1.74 was achieved for α- and γ-tocopherol. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of an ocean shelf model for the prediction of mixed-layer properties in the Mediterranean Sea west of Sardinia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onken, Reiner

2017-04-01

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) has been employed to explore the sensitivity of the forecast skill of mixed-layer properties to initial conditions, boundary conditions, and vertical mixing parameterisations. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were provided by the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) or by the MERCATOR global ocean circulation model via one-way nesting; the initial conditions were additionally updated through the assimilation of observations. Nowcasts and forecasts from the weather forecast models COSMO-ME and COSMO-IT, partly melded with observations, served as surface boundary conditions. The vertical mixing was parameterised by the GLS (generic length scale) scheme Umlauf and Burchard (2003) in four different set-ups. All ROMS forecasts were validated against the observations which were taken during the REP14-MED survey to the west of Sardinia. Nesting ROMS in MERCATOR and updating the initial conditions through data assimilation provided the best agreement of the predicted mixed-layer properties with the time series from a moored thermistor chain. Further improvement was obtained by the usage of COSMO-ME atmospheric forcing, which was melded with real observations, and by the application of the k-ω vertical mixing scheme with increased vertical eddy diffusivity. The predicted temporal variability of the mixed-layer temperature was reasonably well correlated with the observed variability, while the modelled variability of the mixed-layer depth exhibited only agreement with the observations near the diurnal frequency peak. For the forecasted horizontal variability, reasonable agreement was found with observations from a ScanFish section, but only for the mesoscale wave number band; the observed sub-mesoscale variability was not reproduced by ROMS.

CosmoQuest: Educating the Public (and Ourselves) With CosmoAcademy Online Classes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francis, M. R.; Gay, P.

2016-12-01

CosmoAcademy is a part of the CosmoQuest mission to educate the public about astronomy, planetary science, and similar subjects. Through short-duration online classes with small enrollment, we can cover many subjects of interest to the interested layperson, taught by experts. Typical CosmoAcademy classes consist of four hours of face-to-face time, and are limited to fewer than 20 students. This is in contrast to massive online classes such as MOOCs, which often replicate typical university courses, but which rarely allow student-instructor interaction. Additionally, we offer continuing-education classes for classroom teachers and other educators on similar subjects, to let them enrich their own teaching. WeBecause of the short classes, we can offer short classes both on standard topics (the Solar System planets, introduction to cosmology) and specific subjects relating to the news (LIGO, asteroid missions). The expert instructors may be graduate students, research professionals, or anyone with the technical background. We also offer classes to train instructors before they begin teaching. These professional development classes are designed to help those without classroom experience, but also support those who To make that work, we offer classes to train the instructors before they begin teaching, if they don't have the experience or just want to learn how to be more effective in the classroom.We will present CosmoAcademy's program, and explain what it offers both to people taking the class and those who might want to teach with us.

Dynamical Downscaling over Siberia: Is there an added value in representing recent climate conditions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klehmet, K.; Rockel, B.

2012-04-01

The analysis of long-term changes and variability of climate variables for the large areal extent of Siberia - covering arctic, subarctic and temperate northern latitudes - is hampered by the sparseness of in-situ observations. To counteract this deficiency we aimed to provide a reconstruction of regional climate for the period 1948-2010 getting homogenous, consistent fields of various terrestrial and atmospheric parameters for Siberia. In order to obtain in addition a higher temporal and spatial resolution than global datasets can provide, we performed the reconstruction using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (climate mode of the limited area model COSMO developed by the German weather service). However, the question arises whether the dynamically downscaled data of reanalysis can improve the representation of recent climate conditions. As global forcing for the initialization and the regional boundaries we use NCEP-1 Reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction since it has the longest temporal data coverage among the reanalysis products. Additionally, spectral nudging is applied to prevent the regional model from deviating from the prescribed large-scale circulation within the whole simulation domain. The area of interest covers a region in Siberia, spanning from the Laptev Sea and Kara Sea to Northern Mongolia and from the West Siberian Lowland to the border of Sea of Okhotsk. The current horizontal resolution is of about 50 km which is planned to be increased to 25 km. To answer the question, we investigate spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation of the model output in comparison to global reanalysis data (NCEP-1, ERA40, ERA-Interim). As reference Russian station data from the "Global Summary of the Day" data set, provided by NCDC, is used. Temperature is analyzed with respect to its climatologically spatial patterns across the model domain and its variability of extremes based on climate indices derived from daily mean, maximum, minimum temperature (e.g. frost days) for different subregions. The decreasing number of frost days from north to south of the region, calculated from the reanalysis datasets and COSMO-CLM output, indicates the temperature gradient from the arctic to temperate latitudes. For most of the considered subregions NCEP-1 shows more frost days than ERA-Interim and COSMO-CLM.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

This year's edition of the annual Cosmo International Conference on Particle Physics and Cosmology -- Cosmo09 -- will be hosted by the CERN Theory Group from Monday September 7 till Friday September 11, 2009. The conference will take place at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). The Cosmo series is one of the major venues of interaction between cosmologists and particle physicists. In the exciting LHC era, the Conference will be devoted to the modern interfaces between Fundamental and Phenomenological Particle Physics and Physical Cosmology and Astronomy. The Conference will be followed by the CERN TH Institute Particle Cosmology which will take placemore » from Monday September 14 till Friday September 18, 2009. The CERN-TH Institutes are visitor programs intended to bring together scientists with similar interests and to promote scientific collaborations. If you wish to participate, please register on the Institute web page. Link to last editions: COSMO 07 (U. of Sussex), COSMO 08 (U. of Wisconsin) List of plenary speakers: Gianfranco Bertone, Pierre Binetruy, Francois Bouchet, Juerg Diemand, Jonathan Feng, Gregory Gabadadze, Francis Halzen, Steen Hannestad, Will Kinney, Johannes Knapp, Hiranya Peiris, Will Percival, Syksy Rasanen, Alexandre Refregier, Pierre Salati, Roman Scoccimarro, Michael Schubnell, Christian Spiering, Neil Spooner, Andrew Tolley, Matteo Viel. The plenary program is available on-line.« less

Screen-level data assimilation of observations and pseudo-observations in COSMO-I2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milelli, Dr.; Turco, Dr.; Cane, Dr.; Oberto, Dr.; Pelosini, Dr.

2009-09-01

The COSMO model has been developed by the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling, an over-national consortium coordinating the cooperation of the national and regional weather services of Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Greece, Poland and Romania. Its operational version does not make use of the 2m temperature, since it has been shown to have potentially adverse effects on the stability of the planetary boundary layer. Moreover, in pre-operational tests, it has been showed to degrade the low-tropospheric thermal structure of the model. The 2m temperature is at the moment only used in the soil moisture analysis, where it has the potential to modify the surface fluxes and to improve the prediction of 2m temperature during the forecast time. Despite these facts, there is an option in the model for the inclusion of 2m temperature in the assimilation cycle. For this reason, considering the great number of non-GTS stations in the ARPA Piemonte ground network, it has been decided to try the assimilation of 2m temperature in the COSMO-I2 version of the model, which has a horizontal resolution of about 3 km more similar to the average resolution of the thermometers. Two different test periods have been considered, from 1 to 15 September 2008 (summer-like weather) and from 3 to 17 January 2009 (winter-like weather). Every day we have run two simulations up to +24h, starting at 00UTC and 12UTC in order to investigate also the dependence on the initial state of the PBL. The aim of the work is to investigate the assimilation of the non-GTS data in the first 12h of the simulations in order to create an operational very high-resolution analysis, but also to test the option of running in the future a very short-range forecast (+12h to +18h) starting from these analyses. The results, in terms of RMSE, Mean Error (ME) and diurnal cycle of some surface variables such as 2m temperature, 2m relative humidity and 10m wind intensity, and in terms of vertical profile of temperature, show in general a positive impact during the assimilation cycle and below 1000-1500 m respectively and a neutral impact elsewhere, because the effect of the nudging vanishes a few hours after the end of the assimilation. As a second step, we introduced the assimilation of the 2 m temperature forecasts given by the Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique for all the available stations of the ARPA Piemonte network into the model, as if they were observations (we call them pseudo-observations), from +12h to +24h. The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters. Several model outputs are combined, using weights calculated during a so-called training period. This technique has already been tested and implemented in many works on limited-area models in order to obtain reliable forecasts in complex orography regions. Also in this case we observe a positive impact mainly on the surface variables, but the effect lasts up to +24h.

Transitioning NWChem to the Next Generation of Manycore Machines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bylaska, Eric J.; Apra, Edoardo; Kowalski, Karol

The NorthWest Chemistry (NWChem) modeling software is a popular molecular chemistry simulation software that was designed from the start to work on massively parallel processing supercomputers[6, 28, 49]. It contains an umbrella of modules that today includes Self Consistent Field (SCF), second order Mller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2), Coupled Cluster, multi-conguration selfconsistent eld (MCSCF), selected conguration interaction (CI), tensor contraction engine (TCE) many body methods, density functional theory (DFT), time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT), real time time-dependent density functional theory, pseudopotential plane-wave density functional theory (PSPW), band structure (BAND), ab initio molecular dynamics, Car-Parrinello molecular dynamics, classical molecular dynamics (MD), QM/MM,more » AIMD/MM, GIAO NMR, COSMO, COSMO-SMD, and RISM solvation models, free energy simulations, reaction path optimization, parallel in time, among other capabilities[ 22]. Moreover new capabilities continue to be added with each new release.« less

Contact angles and wettability of ionic liquids on polar and non-polar surfaces†

PubMed Central

Sousa, Filipa L.; Silva, Nuno J. O.; Lopes-da-Silva, José A.; Coutinho, João A. P.; Freire, Mara G.

2016-01-01

Many applications involving ionic liquids (ILs) require the knowledge of their interfacial behaviour, such as wettability and adhesion. In this context, herein, two approaches were combined aiming at understanding the impact of the IL chemical structures on their wettability on both polar and non-polar surfaces, namely: (i) the experimental determination of the contact angles of a broad range of ILs (covering a wide number of anions of variable polarity, cations, and cation alkyl side chain lengths) on polar and non-polar solid substrates (glass, Al-plate, and poly-(tetrafluoroethylene) (PTFE)); and (ii) the correlation of the experimental contact angles with the cation–anion pair interaction energies generated by the Conductor-like Screening Model for Real Solvents (COSMO-RS). The combined results reveal that the hydrogen-bond basicity of ILs, and thus the IL anion, plays a major role through their wettability on both polar and non-polar surfaces. The increase of the IL hydrogen-bond accepting ability leads to an improved wettability of more polar surfaces (lower contact angles) while the opposite trend is observed on non-polar surfaces. The cation nature and alkyl side chain lengths have however a smaller impact on the wetting ability of ILs. Linear correlations were found between the experimental contact angles and the cation–anion hydrogen-bonding and cation ring energies, estimated using COSMO-RS, suggesting that these features primarily control the wetting ability of ILs. Furthermore, two-descriptor correlations are proposed here to predict the contact angles of a wide variety of ILs on glass, Al-plate, and PTFE surfaces. A new extended list is provided for the contact angles of ILs on three surfaces, which can be used as a priori information to choose appropriate ILs before a given application. PMID:26554705

Contact angles and wettability of ionic liquids on polar and non-polar surfaces.

PubMed

Pereira, Matheus M; Kurnia, Kiki A; Sousa, Filipa L; Silva, Nuno J O; Lopes-da-Silva, José A; Coutinho, João A P; Freire, Mara G

2015-12-21

Many applications involving ionic liquids (ILs) require the knowledge of their interfacial behaviour, such as wettability and adhesion. In this context, herein, two approaches were combined aiming at understanding the impact of the IL chemical structures on their wettability on both polar and non-polar surfaces, namely: (i) the experimental determination of the contact angles of a broad range of ILs (covering a wide number of anions of variable polarity, cations, and cation alkyl side chain lengths) on polar and non-polar solid substrates (glass, Al-plate, and poly-(tetrafluoroethylene) (PTFE)); and (ii) the correlation of the experimental contact angles with the cation-anion pair interaction energies generated by the Conductor-like Screening Model for Real Solvents (COSMO-RS). The combined results reveal that the hydrogen-bond basicity of ILs, and thus the IL anion, plays a major role through their wettability on both polar and non-polar surfaces. The increase of the IL hydrogen-bond accepting ability leads to an improved wettability of more polar surfaces (lower contact angles) while the opposite trend is observed on non-polar surfaces. The cation nature and alkyl side chain lengths have however a smaller impact on the wetting ability of ILs. Linear correlations were found between the experimental contact angles and the cation-anion hydrogen-bonding and cation ring energies, estimated using COSMO-RS, suggesting that these features primarily control the wetting ability of ILs. Furthermore, two-descriptor correlations are proposed here to predict the contact angles of a wide variety of ILs on glass, Al-plate, and PTFE surfaces. A new extended list is provided for the contact angles of ILs on three surfaces, which can be used as a priori information to choose appropriate ILs before a given application.

CosmoQuest: Training Educators and Engaging Classrooms in Citizen Science through a Virtual Research Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buxner, Sanlyn; Bracey, Georgia; Summer, Theresa; Cobb, Whitney; Gay, Pamela L.; Finkelstein, Keely D.; Gurton, Suzanne; Felix-Strishock, Lisa; Kruse, Brian; Lebofsky, Larry A.; Jones, Andrea J.; Tweed, Ann; Graff, Paige; Runco, Susan; Noel-Storr, Jacob; CosmoQuest Team

2016-10-01

CosmoQuest is a Citizen Science Virtual Research Facility that engages scientists, educators, students, and the public in analyzing NASA images. Often, these types of citizen science activities target enthusiastic members of the public, and additionally engage students in K-12 and college classrooms. To support educational engagement, we are developing a pipeline in which formal and informal educators and facilitators use the virtual research facility to engage students in real image analysis that is framed to provide meaningful science learning. This work also contributes to the larger project to produce publishable results. Community scientists are being solicited to propose CosmoQuest Science Projects take advantage of the virtual research facility capabilities. Each CosmoQuest Science Project will result in formal education materials, aligned with Next Generation Science Standards including the 3-dimensions of science learning; core ideas, crosscutting concepts, and science and engineering practices. Participating scientists will contribute to companion educational materials with support from the CosmoQuest staff of data specialists and education specialists. Educators will be trained through in person and virtual workshops, and classrooms will have the opportunity to not only work with NASA data, but interface with NASA scientists. Through this project, we are bringing together subject matter experts, classrooms, and informal science organizations to share the excitement of NASA SMD science with future citizen scientists. CosmoQuest is funded through individual donations, through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AC68A, and through additional grants and contracts that are listed on our website, cosmoquest.org.

75 FR 65383 - Notice Pursuant to the National Cooperative Research and Production Act of 1993-Telemanagement Forum

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-22

..., CA; Compunet Services, Inc., Stockbridge, GA; Cordys, Putten, THE NETHERLANDS; Cosmo Bulgaria Mobile... Inc. to Cloud.com , Cupertino, CA; Globul to Cosmo Bulgaria Mobile EAD(GloBul), Sofia, BULGARIA; CTBC...

Simulations with COSMO-CLM over Turin including TERRA-URB parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Milelli, Massimo; Raffa, Mario

2017-04-01

The increase of built surfaces constitutes the main reason for the formation of Urban Heat Islands (UHIs), since urban canyons block the release of the reflected radiation. The main contribution to the formation of UHIs is the missing night-cooling of horizontal surfaces, together with cloudless sky and light winds. Of course, there is also a contribution from indoor heating, vehicles presence, and waste heat from air conditioning and refrigeration systems. The COSMO-CLM model, even at high resolution, is currently not able to cope with this effect. Nevertheless, the increase of applications in which a high number of grid points is located over urban areas, requires that COSMO-CLM becomes able to take into account also urban climate features. In fact, they are crucial for better forecast of temperature and for a better characterization of the local patterns of several atmospherical variables (wind, surface fluxes). Recently TERRA-URB, a bulk parameterisation scheme with a prescribed anthropogenic heat flux, has been incorporated into COSMO-CLM for the standard land-surface module TERRA-ML. It offers an intrinsic representation of the urban physics with modifications of input data, soil module and land atmospheric interactions. In the first half of July 2015, Piemonte region and Turin in particular experienced extreme temperature values and uncomfortable conditions for the population. In Turin, the maximum temperature since 1990 (38.5°) has been recorded in July 2015. Ground stations data highlighted the presence of a UHI effect over Turin. This is the reason why this area and this period represent a suitable benchmark to test the capabilities of COSMO-CLM, and in particular of the urban parameterization. The computational domain considered is centered over Turin, discretized with 100 x 100 grid-points, employing a spatial resolution of 0.009° (about 1 km). The ECMWF IFS analysis at 0.075° have been used as forcing data. Two simulations have been performed over the period 1 to 7 July 2015, respectively activating and deactivating TERRA-URB, in order to highlight its effects on the model results. Moreover, a third simulation has been performed with TERRA-URB activated, but employing an optimized model configuration. Validation has been carried out against an observational dataset for daily values of temperature, provided by ARPA Piemonte. More specifically, Consolata and Bauducchi stations have been considered, respectively representative of urban and rural areas. Results have highlighted that in Consolata the minimum temperature is simulated better when TERRA-URB is activated, while in Bauducchi no significant differences have been recorded among the simulations. The daily maximum temperature is always overestimated in both stations. Finally, the usage of an optimized configuration allowed a slight improvement of the results.

Interpretation of the Cosmo-SkyMed observations of the 2009 Tanaro river flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulvirenti, L.; Pierdicca, N.; Chini, M.; Guerriero, L.

2010-09-01

The potentiality of spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for flood mapping was demonstrated by several past investigations. The synoptic view and the capability to operate in almost all-weather conditions and during both day and night are the key features that make the SAR images useful for monitoring inundation events. In addition, their high spatial resolution allows a fairly accurate delineation of the flood extent. The Cosmo-SkyMed (COnstellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) mission offers a unique opportunity to obtain radar images characterized by short revisit time, so that an operational use of Cosmo-SkyMed data in flood management systems can be envisaged. However, the interpretation of SAR images of flooded areas might be complex, because of the dependence of the radar response from flooded pixels on land cover, system parameters and environmental conditions. An example of radar data whose interpretation is not straightforward is represented by the Cosmo-SkyMed observations of the overflowing of the Tanaro river, close to the city of Alessandria (Northern Italy), occurred on April, 27-28 2009. Within the framework of a study, funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI), aiming at evaluating the usefulness of Earth Observation techniques into operational flood prediction and assessment chains (named OPERA, civil protection from floods), ASI provided a number of Cosmo-SkyMed images of the Tanaro basin. In this study, we use three images that were acquired during three days in succession: from April, 29 to May, 1 2009, as well as other two acquisitions performed two weeks later (May, 16 and May, 17 2009), when the effects of the flood were disappeared. In this work, we firstly extract information on the spatial extension of homogeneous objects present in the scene through a segmentation procedure. In this way we cope with the speckle noise characteristic of SAR images and produce, from the multi-temporal series of five imagery we employ, a map formed by homogeneous regions. Among these regions we single out some areas presenting a fairly complex temporal evolution of the radar return. To correctly explain the multi-temporal radar signature of these segments, we use of a well-established electromagnetic model. Some reference multi-temporal backscattering trends are analyzed with the aid of the theoretical model to associate the segments to the classes of flooded or non-flooded areas. Using these reference trends as a training set, a classification algorithm is also developed to generate a map of the flood evolution. This study aims at demonstrating the importance and the feasibility of a method based on a joint use of a well-established electromagnetic scattering model and an advanced image processing technique to reliably interpreting SAR observations of floods.

78 FR 57487 - Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Massachusetts; Regional Haze

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-19

... Approval'' dated March 14, 2012 to Mr. Jairaj Gosine, Wheelabrator Saugus, Inc. and signed by Cosmo Buttaro.... Beaudette, Dominion Energy Salem Harbor, LLC and signed by Edward J. Braczyk, Cosmo Buttaro, and James E...

CosmoQuest: Supporting Subject Matter Experts in Broadening the Impacts of their Work beyond their Institutional Walls.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noel-Storr, J.; Buxner, S.; Grier, J.; Gay, P.

2016-12-01

CosmoQuest is a virtual research facility, which, like its physical counterparts, provides tools for scientists to acquire reduced data products (thanks to our cadre of citizen scientists working to analyze images and produce results online), and also to participate in education and outreach activities either directly through CosmoQuest activities (such as CosmoAcademy and the Educators' Zone) or with the support of CosmoQuest. Here, we present our strategies to inspire, engage and support Subject Matter Experts (SMEs - Scientists, Engineers, Technologists and Mathematicians) in activities outside of their institutions, and beyond college classroom teaching. We provide support for SMEs who are interested in increasing the impacts of their science knowledge and expertise by interacting with people online, or in other venues outside of their normal work environment. This includes a broad spectrum of opportunities for those interested in hosting webinars; running short courses for the public; using Facebook, Twitter or other social media to communicate science; or other diverse activities such as supporting an open house, science fair, or star party. As noted by Katheryn Woods-Townsend and colleagues, "...face-to-face interactions with scientists allowed students to view scientists as approachable and normal people, and to begin to understand the range of scientific areas and careers that exist. Scientists viewed the scientist-student interactions as a vehicle for science communication" (2015). As CosmoQuest fosters these relationships, it We present a framework for SMEs which combine opportunities for continuing professional development (virtually and in person at conferences) with ongoing online support, creating a dynamic professional learning network. The goal of this is to deepen SME capacity-knowledge, attitudes and behaviors-both encouraging and empowering them to connect to broader audiences in new ways.

Spatial and temporal variability of clouds and precipitation over Germany: multiscale simulations across the "gray zone"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthlott, C.; Hoose, C.

2015-11-01

This paper assesses the resolution dependance of clouds and precipitation over Germany by numerical simulations with the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) model. Six intensive observation periods of the HOPE (HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment) measurement campaign conducted in spring 2013 and 1 summer day of the same year are simulated. By means of a series of grid-refinement resolution tests (horizontal grid spacing 2.8, 1 km, 500, and 250 m), the applicability of the COSMO model to represent real weather events in the gray zone, i.e., the scale ranging between the mesoscale limit (no turbulence resolved) and the large-eddy simulation limit (energy-containing turbulence resolved), is tested. To the authors' knowledge, this paper presents the first non-idealized COSMO simulations in the peer-reviewed literature at the 250-500 m scale. It is found that the kinetic energy spectra derived from model output show the expected -5/3 slope, as well as a dependency on model resolution, and that the effective resolution lies between 6 and 7 times the nominal resolution. Although the representation of a number of processes is enhanced with resolution (e.g., boundary-layer thermals, low-level convergence zones, gravity waves), their influence on the temporal evolution of precipitation is rather weak. However, rain intensities vary with resolution, leading to differences in the total rain amount of up to +48 %. Furthermore, the location of rain is similar for the springtime cases with moderate and strong synoptic forcing, whereas significant differences are obtained for the summertime case with air mass convection. Domain-averaged liquid water paths and cloud condensate profiles are used to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the simulated clouds. Finally, probability density functions of convection-related parameters are analyzed to investigate their dependance on model resolution and their impact on cloud formation and subsequent precipitation.

Predictability of short-range forecasting: a multimodel approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Moya, Jose-Antonio; Callado, Alfons; Escribà, Pau; Santos, Carlos; Santos-Muñoz, Daniel; Simarro, Juan

2011-05-01

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models (including mesoscale) have limitations when it comes to dealing with severe weather events because extreme weather is highly unpredictable, even in the short range. A probabilistic forecast based on an ensemble of slightly different model runs may help to address this issue. Among other ensemble techniques, Multimodel ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are proving to be useful for adding probabilistic value to mesoscale deterministic models. A Multimodel Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (SREPS) focused on forecasting the weather up to 72 h has been developed at the Spanish Meteorological Service (AEMET). The system uses five different limited area models (LAMs), namely HIRLAM (HIRLAM Consortium), HRM (DWD), the UM (UKMO), MM5 (PSU/NCAR) and COSMO (COSMO Consortium). These models run with initial and boundary conditions provided by five different global deterministic models, namely IFS (ECMWF), UM (UKMO), GME (DWD), GFS (NCEP) and CMC (MSC). AEMET-SREPS (AE) validation on the large-scale flow, using ECMWF analysis, shows a consistent and slightly underdispersive system. For surface parameters, the system shows high skill forecasting binary events. 24-h precipitation probabilistic forecasts are verified using an up-scaling grid of observations from European high-resolution precipitation networks, and compared with ECMWF-EPS (EC).

Synergies Between Grace and Regional Atmospheric Modeling Efforts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusche, J.; Springer, A.; Ohlwein, C.; Hartung, K.; Longuevergne, L.; Kollet, S. J.; Keune, J.; Dobslaw, H.; Forootan, E.; Eicker, A.

2014-12-01

In the meteorological community, efforts converge towards implementation of high-resolution (< 12km) data-assimilating regional climate modelling/monitoring systems based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) cores. This is driven by requirements of improving process understanding, better representation of land surface interactions, atmospheric convection, orographic effects, and better forecasting on shorter timescales. This is relevant for the GRACE community since (1) these models may provide improved atmospheric mass separation / de-aliasing and smaller topography-induced errors, compared to global (ECMWF-Op, ERA-Interim) data, (2) they inherit high temporal resolution from NWP models, (3) parallel efforts towards improving the land surface component and coupling groundwater models; this may provide realistic hydrological mass estimates with sub-diurnal resolution, (4) parallel efforts towards re-analyses, with the aim of providing consistent time series. (5) On the other hand, GRACE can help validating models and aids in the identification of processes needing improvement. A coupled atmosphere - land surface - groundwater modelling system is currently being implemented for the European CORDEX region at 12.5 km resolution, based on the TerrSysMP platform (COSMO-EU NWP, CLM land surface and ParFlow groundwater models). We report results from Springer et al. (J. Hydromet., accept.) on validating the water cycle in COSMO-EU using GRACE and precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff data; confirming that the model does favorably at representing observations. We show that after GRACE-derived bias correction, basin-average hydrological conditions prior to 2002 can be reconstructed better than before. Next, comparing GRACE with CLM forced by EURO-CORDEX simulations allows identifying processes needing improvement in the model. Finally, we compare COSMO-EU atmospheric pressure, a proxy for mass corrections in satellite gravimetry, with ERA-Interim over Europe at timescales shorter/longer than 1 month, and spatial scales below/above ERA resolution. We find differences between regional and global model more pronounced at high frequencies, with magnitude at sub-grid scale and larger scale corresponding to 1-3 hPa (1-3 cm EWH); relevant for the assessment of post-GRACE concepts.

The high-resolution regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohlwein, C.

2016-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers the past 20 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

Are mixed explicit/implicit solvation models reliable for studying phosphate hydrolysis? A comparative study of continuum, explicit and mixed solvation models.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kamerlin, Shina C. L.; Haranczyk, Maciej; Warshel, Arieh

2009-05-01

Phosphate hydrolysis is ubiquitous in biology. However, despite intensive research on this class of reactions, the precise nature of the reaction mechanism remains controversial. In this work, we have examined the hydrolysis of three homologous phosphate diesters. The solvation free energy was simulated by means of either an implicit solvation model (COSMO), hybrid quantum mechanical / molecular mechanical free energy perturbation (QM/MM-FEP) or a mixed solvation model in which N water molecules were explicitly included in the ab initio description of the reacting system (where N=1-3), with the remainder of the solvent being implicitly modelled as a continuum. Here, bothmore » COSMO and QM/MM-FEP reproduce Delta Gobs within an error of about 2kcal/mol. However, we demonstrate that in order to obtain any form of reliable results from a mixed model, it is essential to carefully select the explicit water molecules from short QM/MM runs that act as a model for the true infinite system. Additionally, the mixed models tend to be increasingly inaccurate the more explicit water molecules are placed into the system. Thus, our analysis indicates that this approach provides an unreliable way for modelling phosphate hydrolysis in solution.« less

On the COSMO-SkyMed Exploitation for Interferometric DEM Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teresa, C. M.; Raffaele, N.; Oscar, N. D.; Fabio, B.

2011-12-01

DEM products for Earth observation space-borne applications are being to play a role of increasing importance due to the new generation of high resolution sensors (both optical and SAR). These new sensors demand elevation data for processing and, on the other hand, they provide new possibilities for DEM generation. Till now, for what concerns interferometric DEM, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) has been the reference product for scientific applications all over the world. SRTM mission [1] had the challenging goal to meet the requirements for a homogeneous and reliable DEM fulfilling the DTED-2 specifications. However, new generation of high resolution sensors (including SAR) pose new requirements for elevation data in terms of vertical precision and spatial resolution. DEM are usually used as ancillary input in different processing steps as for instance geocoding and Differential SAR Interferometry. In this context, the recent SAR missions of DLR (TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X) and ASI (COSMO-SkyMed) can play a promising role thanks to their high resolution both in space and time. In particular, the present work investigates the potentialities of the COSMO/SkyMed (CSK) constellation for ground elevation measurement with particular attention devoted to the impact of the improved spatial resolution wrt the previous SAR sensors. The recent scientific works, [2] and [3], have shown the advantages of using CSK in the monitoring of terrain deformations caused by landslides, earthquakes, etc. On the other hand, thanks to the high spatial resolution, CSK appears to be very promising in monitoring man-made structures, such as buildings, bridges, railways and highways, thus enabling new potential applications (urban applications, precise DEM, etc.). We present results obtained by processing both SPOTLIGHT and STRIPMAP acquisitions through standard SAR Interferometry as well as multi-pass interferometry [4] with the aim of measuring ground elevation. Acknowledgments Work supported by ASI (Agenzia Spaziale Italiana) in the framework of the project "AO-COSMO Project ID-1462 - Feasibility of possible use of COSMO/SkyMed in bistatic SAR Earth observation - ASI Contract I/063/09/0". References [1] B. Rabus, M. Eineder, A. Roth, and R. Bamler, "The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission-A new class of digital elevation models acquired by spaceborne radar," ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote Sens., vol. 57, no. 4, pp. 241-262, Feb. 2003. [2] F. BOVENGA, D. O. NITTI, R. NUTRICATO, M. T. CHIARADIA, "C- and X-band multi-pass InSAR analysis over Alpine and Apennine regions". In Proceedings of the European Space Agency Living Planet Symposium, June 28 - July 2, 2010, Bergen, Norway. [3] D. REALE, D. O. NITTI, D. PEDUTO, R. NUTRICATO, F. BOVENGA, G. FORNARO, "Postseismic Deformation Monitoring With The COSMO/SKYMED Constellation". IEEE Geoscience Remote Sensing Letters, 2011. DOI: 10.1109/LGRS.2010.2100364 [4] Nitti, D.O., Nutricato, R., Bovenga, F., Conte, D., Guerriero, L. & Milillo, G., "Quantitative Analysis of Stripmap And Spotlight SAR Interferometry with CosmoSkyMed constellation.", Proceedings if IEEE IGARSS 2009, July 13-17, 2009. Cape Town, South Africa.

Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

2015-05-01

The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

CosmoCalc: An Excel add-in for cosmogenic nuclide calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeesch, Pieter

2007-08-01

As dating methods using Terrestrial Cosmogenic Nuclides (TCN) become more popular, the need arises for a general-purpose and easy-to-use data reduction software. The CosmoCalc Excel add-in calculates TCN production rate scaling factors (using Lal, Stone, Dunai, and Desilets methods); topographic, snow, and self-shielding factors; and exposure ages, erosion rates, and burial ages and visualizes the results on banana-style plots. It uses an internally consistent TCN production equation that is based on the quadruple exponential approach of Granger and Smith (2000). CosmoCalc was designed to be as user-friendly as possible. Although the user interface is extremely simple, the program is also very flexible, and nearly all default parameter values can be changed. To facilitate the comparison of different scaling factors, a set of converter tools is provided, allowing the user to easily convert cut-off rigidities to magnetic inclinations, elevations to atmospheric depths, and so forth. Because it is important to use a consistent set of scaling factors for the sample measurements and the production rate calibration sites, CosmoCalc defines the production rates implicitly, as a function of the original TCN concentrations of the calibration site. The program is best suited for 10Be, 26Al, 3He, and 21Ne calculations, although basic functionality for 36Cl and 14C is also provided. CosmoCalc can be downloaded along with a set of test data from http://cosmocalc.googlepages.com.

CosmoQuest: A Glance at Citizen Science Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Matthew; Grier, Jennifer; Gay, Pamela; Lehan, Cory; Buxner, Sanlyn; CosmoQuest Team

2018-01-01

CosmoQuest is a virtual research facility focused on engaging people - citizen scientists - from across the world in authentic research projects designed to enhance our knowledge of the cosmos around us. Using image data acquired by NASA missions, our citizen scientists are first trained to identify specific features within the data and then requested to identify those features across large datasets. Responses submitted by the citizen scientists are then stored in our database where they await for analysis and eventual publication by CosmoQuest staff and collaborating professional research scientists.While it is clear that the driving power behind our projects are the eyes and minds of our citizen scientists, it is CosmoQuest’s custom software, Citizen Science Builder (CSB), that enables citizen science to be accomplished. On the front end, CosmoQuest’s CSB software allows for the creation of web-interfaces that users can access to perform image annotation through both drawing tools and questions that can accompany images. These tools include: using geometric shapes to identify regions within an image, tracing image attributes using freeform line tools, and flagging features within images. Additionally, checkboxes, dropdowns, and free response boxes may be used to collect information. On the back end, this software is responsible for the proper storage of all data, which allows project staff to perform periodic data quality checks and track the progress of each project. In this poster we present these available tools and resources and seek potential collaborations.

The COronal Solar Magnetism Observatory (COSMO) Large Aperture Coronagraph

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomczyk, Steve; Gallagher, Dennis; Wu, Zhen; Zhang, Haiying; Nelson, Pete; Burkepile, Joan; Kolinksi, Don; Sutherland, Lee

2013-04-01

The COSMO is a facility dedicated to observing coronal and chromospheric magnetic fields. It will be located on a mountaintop in the Hawaiian Islands and will replace the current Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO). COSMO will provide unique observations of the global coronal magnetic fields and its environment to enhance the value of data collected by other observatories on the ground (e.g. SOLIS, BBO NST, Gregor, ATST, EST, Chinese Giant Solar Telescope, NLST, FASR) and in space (e.g. SDO, Hinode, SOHO, GOES, STEREO, Solar-C, Solar Probe+, Solar Orbiter). COSMO will employ a fleet of instruments to cover many aspects of measuring magnetic fields in the solar atmosphere. The dynamics and energy flow in the corona are dominated by magnetic fields. To understand the formation of CMEs, their relation to other forms of solar activity, and their progression out into the solar wind requires measurements of coronal magnetic fields. The large aperture coronagraph, the Chromospheric and Prominence Magnetometer and the K-Coronagraph form the COSMO instrument suite to measure magnetic fields and the polarization brightness of the low corona used to infer electron density. The large aperture coronagraph will employ a 1.5 meter fuse silica singlet lens, birefringent filters, and a spectropolarimeter to cover fields of view of up to 1 degree. It will observe the corona over a wide range of emission lines from 530.3 nm through 1083.0 nm allowing for magnetic field measurements over a wide range of coronal temperatures (e.g. FeXIV at 530.3 nm, Fe X at 637.4 nm, Fe XIII at 1074.7 and 1079.8 nm. These lines are faint and require the very large aperture. NCAR and NSF have provided funding to bring the large aperture coronagraph to a preliminary design review state by the end of 2013. As with all data from Mauna Loa, the data products from COSMO will be available to the community via the Mauna Loa website: http://mlso.hao.ucar.edu

A new framework for the analysis of continental-scale convection-resolving climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, D.; Charpilloz, C.; Arteaga, A.; Ban, N.; Di Girolamo, S.; Fuhrer, O.; Hoefler, T.; Schulthess, T. C.; Christoph, S.

2017-12-01

High-resolution climate simulations at horizontal resolution of O(1-4 km) allow explicit treatment of deep convection (thunderstorms and rain showers). Explicitly treating convection by the governing equations reduces uncertainties associated with parametrization schemes and allows a model formulation closer to physical first principles [1,2]. But kilometer-scale climate simulations with long integration periods and large computational domains are expensive and data storage becomes unbearably voluminous. Hence new approaches to perform analysis are required. In the crCLIM project we propose a new climate modeling framework that allows scientists to conduct analysis at high spatial and temporal resolution. We tackle the computational cost by using the largest available supercomputers such as hybrid CPU-GPU architectures. For this the COSMO model has been adapted to run on such architectures [2]. We then alleviate the I/O-bottleneck by employing a simulation data-virtualizer (SDaVi) that allows to trade-off storage (space) for computational effort (time). This is achieved by caching the simulation outputs and efficiently launching re-simulations in case of cache misses. All this is done transparently from the analysis applications [3]. For the re-runs this approach requires a bit-reproducible version of COSMO. That is to say a model that produces identical results on different architectures to ensure coherent recomputation of the requested data [4]. In this contribution we present a version of SDaVi, a first performance model, and a strategy to obtain bit-reproducibility across hardware architectures.[1] N. Ban, J. Schmidli, C. Schär. Evaluation of the convection-resolving regional climate modeling approach in decade-long simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 7889-7907, 2014.[2] D. Leutwyler, O. Fuhrer, X. Lapillonne, D. Lüthi, C. Schär. Towards European-scale convection-resolving climate simulations with GPUs: a study with COSMO 4.19. Geosci. Model Dev, 3393-3412, 2016.[3] S. Di Girolamo, P. Schmid, T. Schulthess, T. Hoefler. Virtualized Big Data: Reproducing Simulation Output on Demand. Submit. to the 23rd ACM Symposium on PPoPP 18, Vienna, Austria.[4] A. Arteaga, O. Fuhrer, T. Hoefler. Designing Bit-Reproducible Portable High-Performance Applications. IEEE 28th IPDPS, 2014.

Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, N.; Brauch, J.; Dobler, A.; Béranger, K.; Ahrens, B.

2014-03-01

So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid-spacings of 0.44°, 0.22°, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid-spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high-resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.

Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, N.; Brauch, J.; Dobler, A.; Béranger, K.; Ahrens, B.

2014-08-01

So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine, and warm-core Mediterranean cyclones that exhibit some similarities to tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with medicanes threaten the highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. To reduce the risk of casualties and overall negative impacts, it is important to improve the understanding of medicanes with the use of numerical models. In this study, we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (1-D NEMO-MED12) to simulate medicanes. The aim of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model in simulating these extreme events. For this purpose, 11 historical medicane events are simulated using the atmosphere-only model, COSMO-CLM, and coupled model, with different setups (horizontal atmospheric grid spacings of 0.44, 0.22, and 0.08°; with/without spectral nudging, and an ocean grid spacing of 1/12°). The results show that at high resolution, the coupled model is able to not only simulate most of medicane events but also improve the track length, core temperature, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to the atmosphere-only simulations. The results suggest that the coupled model is more proficient for systemic and detailed studies of historical medicane events, and that this model can be an effective tool for future projections.

Structure and thermal properties of salicylate-based-protic ionic liquids as new heat storage media. COSMO-RS structure characterization and modeling of heat capacities.

PubMed

Jacquemin, Johan; Feder-Kubis, Joanna; Zorębski, Michał; Grzybowska, Katarzyna; Chorążewski, Mirosław; Hensel-Bielówka, Stella; Zorębski, Edward; Paluch, Marian; Dzida, Marzena

2014-02-28

During this research, we present a study on the thermal properties, such as the melting, cold crystallization, and glass transition temperatures as well as heat capacities from 293.15 K to 323.15 K of nine in-house synthesized protic ionic liquids based on the 3-(alkoxymethyl)-1H-imidazol-3-ium salicylate ([H-Im-C1OC(n)][Sal]) with n = 3-11. The 3D structures, surface charge distributions and COSMO volumes of all investigated ions are obtained by combining DFT calculations and the COSMO-RS methodology. The heat capacity data sets as a function of temperature of the 3-(alkoxymethyl)-1H-imidazol-3-ium salicylate are then predicted using the methodology originally proposed in the case of ionic liquids by Ge et al. 3-(Alkoxymethyl)-1H-imidazol-3-ium salicylate based ionic liquids present specific heat capacities higher in many cases than other ionic liquids that make them suitable as heat storage media and in heat transfer processes. It was found experimentally that the heat capacity increases linearly with increasing alkyl chain length of the alkoxymethyl group of 3-(alkoxymethyl)-1H-imidazol-3-ium salicylate as was expected and predicted using the Ge et al. method with an overall relative absolute deviation close to 3.2% for temperatures up to 323.15 K.

Facing the challenge of predicting the standard formation enthalpies of n-butyl-phosphate species with ab initio methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saab, Mohamad; Réal, Florent; Šulka, Martin; Cantrel, Laurent; Virot, François; Vallet, Valérie

2017-06-01

Tributyl-phosphate (TBP), a ligand used in the PUREX liquid-liquid separation process of spent nuclear fuel, can form an explosive mixture in contact with nitric acid that might lead to a violent explosive thermal runaway. In the context of safety of a nuclear reprocessing plant facility, it is crucial to predict the stability of TBP at elevated temperatures. So far, only the enthalpies of formation of TBP are available in the literature with rather large uncertainties, while those of its degradation products, di-(HDBP) and mono-(H2MBP), are unknown. In this goal, we have used state-of-the art quantum chemical methods to compute the formation enthalpies and entropies of TBP and its degradation products di-(HDBP) and mono-(H2MBP) in gas and liquid phases. Comparisons of levels of quantum chemical theory revealed that there are significant effects of correlation on their electronic structures, pushing for the need of not only high level of electronic correlation treatment, namely, local coupled cluster with single and double excitation operators and perturbative treatment of triple excitations, but also extrapolations to the complete basis to produce reliable and accurate thermodynamics data. Solvation enthalpies were computed with the conductor-like screening model for real solvents [COSMO-RS], for which we observe errors not exceeding 22 kJ mol-1. We thus propose with final uncertainty of about 20 kJ mol-1 standard enthalpies of formation of TBP, HDBP, and H2MBP which amounts to -1281.7 ± 24.4, -1229.4 ± 19.6, and -1176.7 ± 14.8 kJ mol-1, respectively, in the gas phase. In the liquid phase, the predicted values are -1367.3 ± 24.4, -1348.7 ± 19.6, and -1323.8± 14.8 kJ mol-1, to which we may add about -22 kJ mol-1 error from the COSMO-RS solvent model. From these data, the complete hydrolysis of TBP is predicted as an exothermic phenomena but showing a slightly endergonic process.

COSMO-SkyMed vs RADARSAT-2 for Monitoring Natural and Anthropogenic Components of the Land Movement in Venice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosi, Luigi; Da Lio, Cristina; Strozzi, Tazio; Teatini, Pietro

2016-08-01

We present the result of a test aimed at evaluating the capability of RADARSAT-2 and COSMO-SkyMed to map the natural subsidence and ground movements induced by anthropogenic activities in the historical center of Venice. Firstly, ground movements have been retrieved at quite long- and short-term by the Persistent Scattered Interferometry (PSI) on 2008-2015 RADARSA T-2 and 2013-2015 COSMO-SkyMed image stacks, respectively. Secondly, PSI has been calibrated at regional scale using the records of permanent GPS stations. Thirdly, considering that over the last two decades "in the historical center of Venice" natural land movements are primarily ascribed to long- term processes, and those induced by human activities act at short-term, we have properly resampled 83-month RADARSA T-2 C-band and 27-month COSMO- SkyMed X-band interferometric products by a common grid and processed the outcome to estimate the two components of the displacements. Results show that the average natural subsidence is generally in the range of 0.9 - 1.1 mm/yr and the anthropogenic ground movements are up to 2 mm/yr.

The cosmic web in CosmoGrid void regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, Steven; van de Weygaert, Rien; Cautun, Marius; Beygu, Burcu; Portegies Zwart, Simon

2016-10-01

We study the formation and evolution of the cosmic web, using the high-resolution CosmoGrid ΛCDM simulation. In particular, we investigate the evolution of the large-scale structure around void halo groups, and compare this to observations of the VGS-31 galaxy group, which consists of three interacting galaxies inside a large void. The structure around such haloes shows a great deal of tenuous structure, with most of such systems being embedded in intra-void filaments and walls. We use the Nexus+} algorithm to detect walls and filaments in CosmoGrid, and find them to be present and detectable at every scale. The void regions embed tenuous walls, which in turn embed tenuous filaments. We hypothesize that the void galaxy group of VGS-31 formed in such an environment.

Separation of Aeruginosin-865 from Cultivated Soil Cyanobacterium (Nostoc sp.) by Centrifugal Partition Chromatography combined with Gel Permeation Chromatography.

PubMed

Cheel, José; Minceva, Mirjana; Urajová, Petra; Aslam, Rabya; Hrouzek, Pavel; Kopecký, Jiří

2015-10-01

Aeruginosin-865 was isolated from cultivated soil cyanobacteria using a combination of centrifugal partition chromatography (CPC) and gel permeation chromatography. The solubility of Aer-865 in different solvents was evaluated using the conductor-like screening model for real solvents (COSMO-RS). The CPC separation was performed in descending mode with a biphasic solvent system composed of water-n-BuOH-acetic acid (5:4:1, v/v/v). The upper phase was used as a stationary phase, whereas the lower phase was employed as a mobile phase at a flow rate of 10 mL/min. The revolution speed and temperature of the separation column were 1700 rpm and 25 degrees C, respectively. Preparative CPC separation followed by gel permeation chromatography was performed on 50 mg of crude extract yielding Aer-865 (3.5 mg), with a purity over 95% as determined by HPLC. The chemical identity of the isolated compound was confirmed by comparing its spectroscopic data (UV, HRESI-MS, HRESI-MS/MS) with those of an authentic standard and data available in the literature.

A new climate modeling framework for convection-resolving simulation at continental scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charpilloz, Christophe; di Girolamo, Salvatore; Arteaga, Andrea; Fuhrer, Oliver; Hoefler, Torsten; Schulthess, Thomas; Schär, Christoph

2017-04-01

Major uncertainties remain in our understanding of the processes that govern the water cycle in a changing climate and their representation in weather and climate models. Of particular concern are heavy precipitation events of convective origin (thunderstorms and rain showers). The aim of the crCLIM project [1] is to propose a new climate modeling framework that alleviates the I/O-bottleneck in large-scale, convection-resolving climate simulations and thus to enable new analysis techniques for climate scientists. Due to the large computational costs, convection-resolving simulations are currently restricted to small computational domains or very short time scales, unless the largest available supercomputers system such as hybrid CPU-GPU architectures are used [3]. Hence, the COSMO model has been adapted to run on these architectures for research and production purposes [2]. However, the amount of generated data also increases and storing this data becomes infeasible making the analysis of simulations results impractical. To circumvent this problem and enable high-resolution models in climate we propose a data-virtualization layer (DVL) that re-runs simulations on demand and transparently manages the data for the analysis, that means we trade off computational effort (time) for storage (space). This approach also requires a bit-reproducible version of the COSMO model that produces identical results on different architectures (CPUs and GPUs) [4] that will be coupled with a performance model in order enable optimal re-runs depending on requirements of the re-run and available resources. In this contribution, we discuss the strategy to develop the DVL, a first performance model, the challenge of bit-reproducibility and the first results of the crCLIM project. [1] http://www.c2sm.ethz.ch/research/crCLIM.html [2] O. Fuhrer, C. Osuna, X. Lapillonne, T. Gysi, M. Bianco, and T. Schulthess. "Towards gpu-accelerated operational weather forecasting." In The GPU Technology Conference, GTC. 2013. [3] D. Leutwyler, O. Fuhrer, X. Lapillonne, D. Lüthi, and C. Schär. "Towards European-scale convection-resolving climate simulations with GPUs: a study with COSMO 4.19." Geoscientific Model Development 9, no. 9 (2016): 3393. [4] A. Arteaga, O. Fuhrer, and T. Hoefler. "Designing bit-reproducible portable high-performance applications." In Parallel and Distributed Processing Symposium, 2014 IEEE 28th International, pp. 1235-1244. IEEE, 2014.

Against all odds -- Probabilistic forecasts and decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liechti, Katharina; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

In the city of Zurich (Switzerland) the setting is such that the damage potential due to flooding of the river Sihl is estimated to about 5 billion US dollars. The flood forecasting system that is used by the administration for decision making runs continuously since 2007. It has a time horizon of max. five days and operates at hourly time steps. The flood forecasting system includes three different model chains. Two of those are run by the deterministic NWP models COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 and one is driven by the probabilistic NWP COSMO-Leps. The model chains are consistent since February 2010, so five full years are available for the evaluation for the system. The system was evaluated continuously and is a very nice example to present the added value that lies in probabilistic forecasts. The forecasts are available on an online-platform to the decision makers. Several graphical representations of the forecasts and forecast-history are available to support decision making and to rate the current situation. The communication between forecasters and decision-makers is quite close. To put it short, an ideal situation. However, an event or better put a non-event in summer 2014 showed that the knowledge about the general superiority of probabilistic forecasts doesn't necessarily mean that the decisions taken in a specific situation will be based on that probabilistic forecast. Some years of experience allow gaining confidence in the system, both for the forecasters and for the decision-makers. Even if from the theoretical point of view the handling during crisis situation is well designed, a first event demonstrated that the dialog with the decision-makers still lacks of exercise during such situations. We argue, that a false alarm is a needed experience to consolidate real-time emergency procedures relying on ensemble predictions. A missed event would probably also fit, but, in our case, we are very happy not to report about this option.

Modeling COSMO-SkyMed measurements of precipitating clouds over the sea using simultaneous weather radar observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberto, N.; Baldini, L.; Facheris, L.; Chandrasekar, V.

2014-07-01

Several satellite missions employing X-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) have been activated to provide high-resolution images of normalized radar cross-sections (NRCS) on land and ocean for numerous applications. Rainfall and wind affect the sea surface roughness and consequently the NRCS from the combined effects of corrugation due to impinging raindrops and surface wind. X-band frequencies are sensitive to precipitation: intense convective cells result in irregularly bright and dark patches in SAR images, masking changes in surface NRCS. Several works have modeled SAR images of intense precipitation over land; less adequately investigated is the precipitation effect over the sea surface. These images are analyzed in this study by modeling both the scattering and attenuation of radiation by hydrometeors in the rain cells and the NRCS surface changes using weather radar precipitation estimates as input. The reconstruction of X-band SAR returns in precipitating clouds is obtained by the joint utilization of volume reflectivity and attenuation, the latter estimated by coupling ground-based radar measurements and an electromagnetic model to predict the sea surface NRCS. Radar signatures of rain cells were investigated using X-band SAR images collected from the COSMO-SkyMed constellation of the Italian Space Agency. Two case studies were analyzed. The first occurred over the sea off the coast of Louisiana (USA) in summer 2010 with COSMO-SkyMed (CSK®) ScanSar mode monitoring of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Simultaneously, the NEXRAD S-band Doppler radar (KLIX) located in New Orleans was scanning the same portion of ocean. The second case study occurred in Liguria (Italy) on November 4, 2011, during an extraordinary flood event. The same events were observed by the Bric della Croce C-band dual polarization radar located close to Turin (Italy). The polarimetric capability of the ground radars utilized allows discrimination of the composition of the precipitation volume, in particular distinguishing ice from rain. Results shows that for space-borne SAR at X-band, effects due to precipitation on water surfaces can be modeled using coincident ground-based weather radar measurements.

Thermodynamically based solvent design for enzymatic saccharide acylation with hydroxycinnamic acids in non-conventional media.

PubMed

Zeuner, Birgitte; Kontogeorgis, Georgios M; Riisager, Anders; Meyer, Anne S

2012-02-15

Enzyme-catalyzed synthesis has been widely studied with lipases (EC 3.1.1.3), but feruloyl esterases (FAEs; EC 3.1.1.73) may provide advantages such as higher substrate affinity and regioselectivity in the synthesis of hydroxycinnamate saccharide esters. These compounds are interesting because of their amphiphilicity and antioxidative potential. Synthetic reactions using mono- or disaccharides as one of the substrates may moreover direct new routes for biomass upgrading in the biorefinery. The paper reviews the available data for enzymatic hydroxycinnamate saccharide ester synthesis in organic solvent systems as well as other enzymatic hydroxycinnamate acylations in ionic liquid systems. The choice of solvent system is highly decisive for enzyme stability, selectivity, and reaction yields in these synthesis reactions. To increase the understanding of the reaction environment and to facilitate solvent screening as a crucial part of the reaction design, the review explores the use of activity coefficient models for describing these systems and - more importantly - the use of group contribution model UNIFAC and quantum chemistry based COSMO-RS for thermodynamic predictions and preliminary solvent screening. Surfactant-free microemulsions of a hydrocarbon, a polar alcohol, and water are interesting solvent systems because they accommodate different substrate and product solubilities and maintain enzyme stability. Ionic liquids may provide advantages as solvents in terms of increased substrate and product solubility, higher reactivity and selectivity, as well as tunable physicochemical properties, but their design should be carefully considered in relation to enzyme stability. The treatise shows that thermodynamic modeling tools for solvent design provide a new toolbox to design enzyme-catalyzed synthetic reactions from biomass sources. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison between calculations of shortwave radiation with different aerosol datasets and measured data at the MSU MO (Russia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poliukhov, Aleksei; Chubarova, Natalia; Kinne, Stephan; Rivin, Gdaliy; Shatunova, Marina; Tarasova, Tatiana

2017-02-01

The radiation block of the COSMO non-hydrostatic mesoscale model of the atmosphere and soil active layer was tested against a relatively new effective CLIRAD(FC05)-SW radiation model and radiative measurements at the Moscow State University Meteorological Observatory (MSU MO, 55.7N, 37.5E) using different aerosol datasets in cloudless conditions. We used the data of shortwave radiation components from the Kipp&Zonen net radiometer CNR4. The model simulations were performed with the application of various aerosol climatologies including the new MACv2 climatology and the aerosol and water vapor dataset from CIMEL (AERONET) sun photometer measurements. The application of the new MACv2 climatology in the CLIRAD(FC05)-SW radiation model provides the annual average relative error of the total global radiation of -3% varying from 0.5% in May to -7.7% in December. The uncertainty of radiative calculations in the COSMO model according to preliminary estimates changes from 1.4% to 8.4%. against CLIRAD(FC05)-SW radiation model with the same parameters. We showed that in clear sky conditions the sensitivity of air temperature at 2 meters to shortwave net radiation changes is about 0.7-0.9°C per100 W/m2 due to the application of aerosol climatologies over Moscow.

COSMO-SkyMed Spotlight interometry over rural areas: the Slumgullion landslide in Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milillo, Pietro; Fielding, Eric J.; Schulz, William H.; Delbridge, Brent; Burgmann, Roland

2014-01-01

In the last 7 years, spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data with resolution of better than a meter acquired by satellites in spotlight mode offered an unprecedented improvement in SAR interferometry (InSAR). Most attention has been focused on monitoring urban areas and man-made infrastructure exploiting geometric accuracy, stability, and phase fidelity of the spotlight mode. In this paper, we explore the potential application of the COSMO-SkyMed® Spotlight mode to rural areas where decorrelation is substantial and rapidly increases with time. We focus on the rapid repeat times of as short as one day possible with the COSMO-SkyMed® constellation. We further present a qualitative analysis of spotlight interferometry over the Slumgullion landslide in southwest Colorado, which moves at rates of more than 1 cm/day.

CosmoQuest: Building a Community of Skilled Citizen Science Contributors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gay, P.; Lehan, C.; Bracey, G.; Durrell, P.; Komatsu, T.; Yamani, A.; Francis, M. R.

2016-12-01

The CosmoQuest Virtual Research Facility invites the public to participate in NASA Science Mission Directorate related research that leads to publishable results and data catalogues. CosmoQuest projects range in difficulty from simple crater and transient marking tasks to more complicated mapping tasks. To successfully engage contributors in creating usable results, training and validation are required. This is accomplished through activities that are designed to mirror the experiences students would have in a university, and include mentoring by team scientists, feedback on contributor efforts, seminars to learn about new science, and even formal classes to provide needed background. Recruitment is accomplished using new and social media, and planetarium and Science on the Sphere™ trailers and shows, and community is built through online and real-world collaboration spaces and events. In this presentation, we detail CosmoQuest's four-pronged approach of media recruitment, science education, citizen science, and community collaboration. We also discuss how it is leveraged to create a skilled collaboration of citizen scientists. Training and data validation activities will be be emphasized, with examples of both what can go right and lessons learned from when things go wrong. We conclude with strategies on how to utilize best practices in user interface design to create virtual experiences that allow major citizen science efforts to be scalable to large audiences.

Medical students as teachers at CoSMO, Columbia University's student-run clinic: a pilot study and literature review.

PubMed

Hamso, Magni; Ramsdell, Amanda; Balmer, Dorene; Boquin, Cyrus

2012-01-01

Although medical students are expected to teach as soon as they begin residency, medical schools have just recently begun adding teacher training to their curricula. Student-run clinics (SRCs) may provide opportunities in clinical teaching before residency. The aim of this pilot study was to examine students' experiences in clinical teaching at Columbia Student Medical Outreach (CoSMO), Columbia University's SRC, during the 2009-2010 school year. A mixed-methods approach was used. Data included closed and open-ended surveys (n = 34), combined interviews with preclinical and clinical student pairs (n = 5), individual interviews (n = 10), and focus groups (n = 3). The transcripts were analyzed using the principles of grounded theory. Many students had their first clinical teaching experience while volunteering at CoSMO. Clinical students' ability to teach affected the quality of the learning experience for their preclinical peers. Preclinical students who asked questions and engaged in patient care challenged their clinical peers to balance teaching with patient care. Clinical students began to see themselves as teachers while volunteering at CoSMO. The practical experiences in clinical teaching that students have at SRCs can supplement classroom-based trainings. Medical schools might revisit their SRCs as places for exposure to clinical teaching.

A Decade-Long European-Scale Convection-Resolving Climate Simulation on GPUs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, D.; Fuhrer, O.; Ban, N.; Lapillonne, X.; Lüthi, D.; Schar, C.

2016-12-01

Convection-resolving models have proven to be very useful tools in numerical weather prediction and in climate research. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. Innovations in the supercomputing domain have led to new supercomputer designs that involve conventional multi-core CPUs and accelerators such as graphics processing units (GPUs). One of the first atmospheric models that has been fully ported to GPUs is the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling weather and climate model COSMO. This new version allows us to expand the size of the simulation domain to areas spanning continents and the time period up to one decade. We present results from a decade-long, convection-resolving climate simulation over Europe using the GPU-enabled COSMO version on a computational domain with 1536x1536x60 gridpoints. The simulation is driven by the ERA-interim reanalysis. The results illustrate how the approach allows for the representation of interactions between synoptic-scale and meso-scale atmospheric circulations at scales ranging from 1000 to 10 km. We discuss some of the advantages and prospects from using GPUs, and focus on the performance of the convection-resolving modeling approach on the European scale. Specifically we investigate the organization of convective clouds and on validate hourly rainfall distributions with various high-resolution data sets.

Operational applications of a process-based runoff generation module on the Swiss Plateau and Prealps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horat, Christoph; Antonetti, Manuel; Wernli, Heini; Zappa, Massimiliano

2017-04-01

Flash floods evolve rapidly during and after heavy precipitation events and represent a risk for society, especially in mountainous areas. Knowledge on meteorological variables and their temporal development is often not sufficient to predict their occurrence. Therefore, information about the state of the hydrological system derived from hydrological models is used. These models rely however on strong simplifying assumptions and need therefore to be calibrated. This prevents their application on catchments, where no runoff data is available. Here we present a flash-flood forecasting chain including: (i) a nowcasting product which combines radar and rain gauge rainfall data (CombiPrecip), (ii) meteorological data from numerical weather prediction models at currently finest available resolution (COSMO-1, COSMO-E), (iii) operationally available soil moisture estimations from the PREVAH hydrological model, and (iv) a process-based runoff generation module with no need for calibration (RGM-PRO). This last component uses information on the spatial distribution of dominant runoff processes (DRPs) which can be derived with different mapping approaches, and is parameterised a priori based on expert knowledge. First, we compared the performance of RGM-PRO with the one of a traditional conceptual runoff generation module for several events on Swiss Emme catchment, as well as on their nested catchments. Different DRP-maps are furthermore tested to evaluate the sensitivity of the forecasting chain to the mapping approaches. Then, we benchmarked the new forecasting chain with the traditional chain used on the Swiss Verzasca catchment. The results show that RGM-PRO performs similarly or even better than the traditional calibrated conceptual module on the investigated catchments. The use of strongly simplified DRP mapping approaches still leads to satisfying results, due mainly to the fact that the largest uncertainty source is represented by the meteorological input data. On the Verzasca catchment, RGM-PRO outperformed the traditional forecast chain in terms of mean absolute error, independently from the lead time and threshold quantile, whereas the Brier Skill Score did not show any clear preference. Probabilistic input data led generally to better results compared with those obtained with deterministic forecasts.

COSMO-SkyMed Interoperability, Expandability and Multi-Sensor Capabilities: The Keys for Full Multi-Mission Spectrum Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-01

constellation, SAR Bistatic for interferometry, L-band SAR data from Argentinean SAOCOM satellites, and optical imaging data from the French ‘ Pleiades ...a services federation (e.g. COSMO-SkyMed (SAR) and Pleiades (optical) constellation). Its main purpose is the elaboration of Programming Requests...on catalogue interoperability or on a federation of services (i.e. with French Pleiades optical satellites). The multi-mission objectives are

CosmoQuest Transient Tracker: Opensource Photometry & Astrometry software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, Joseph L.; Lehan, Cory; Gay, Pamela; Richardson, Matthew; CosmoQuest Team

2018-01-01

CosmoQuest is moving from online citizen science, to observational astronomy with the creation of Transient Trackers. This open source software is designed to identify asteroids and other transient/variable objects in image sets. Transient Tracker’s features in final form will include: astrometric and photometric solutions, identification of moving/transient objects, identification of variable objects, and lightcurve analysis. In this poster we present our initial, v0.1 release and seek community input.This software builds on the existing NIH funded ImageJ libraries. Creation of this suite of opensource image manipulation routines is lead by Wayne Rasband and is released primarily under the MIT license. In this release, we are building on these libraries to add source identification for point / point-like sources, and to do astrometry. Our materials released under the Apache 2.0 license on github (http://github.com/CosmoQuestTeam) and documentation can be found at http://cosmoquest.org/TransientTracker.

CosmoBon, tree research team, for studying utilization of woody plant in space environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomita-Yokotani, Kaori; Yamashita, Masamichi; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Sato, Seigo; Baba, Keiichi; Chida, Yukari

2012-07-01

We are proposing to raise woody plants in space for several applications and plant science, as Tree research team, TRT. Trees produce excess oxygen, wooden materials for living cabin, and provide biomass for cultivating mushroom and insect as for the space agriculture. Excellent tree shapes which would be deeply related to wood formation improve quality of life under stressful environment in outer space. We have the serious problem about their size. Bonsai is one of the Japanese traditional arts. We have been investigating the tension wood formation under exotic gravitational environment using Bonsai. CosmoBon is the small tree Bonsai for our space experiment. The tension wood formation in CosmoBon was confirmed as the same as that in the natural trees. Our goal is to examine feasibility to grow various species of trees in space as bioresource for space agriculture.

Hydration of copper(II): new insights from density functional theory and the COSMO solvation model.

PubMed

Bryantsev, Vyacheslav S; Diallo, Mamadou S; van Duin, Adri C T; Goddard, William A

2008-09-25

The hydrated structure of the Cu(II) ion has been a subject of ongoing debate in the literature. In this article, we use density functional theory (B3LYP) and the COSMO continuum solvent model to characterize the structure and stability of [Cu(H2O)n](2+) clusters as a function of coordination number (4, 5, and 6) and cluster size (n = 4-18). We find that the most thermodynamically favored Cu(II) complexes in the gas phase have a very open four-coordinate structure. They are formed from a stable square-planar [Cu(H2O)8](2+) core stabilized by an unpaired electron in the Cu(II) ion d(x(2)-y(2)) orbital. This is consistent with cluster geometries suggested by recent mass-spectrometric experiments. In the aqueous phase, we find that the more compact five-coordinate square-pyramidal geometry is more stable than either the four-coordinate or six-coordinate clusters in agreement with recent combined EXAFS and XANES studies of aqueous solutions of Cu(II). However, a small energetic difference (approximately 1.4 kcal/mol) between the five- and six-coordinate models with two full hydration shells around the metal ion suggests that both forms may coexist in solution.

Predicting CO2-H2O Interfacial Tension Using COSMO-RS.

PubMed

Silvestri, A; Stipp, S L S; Andersson, M P

2017-02-14

Knowledge about the interaction between fluids and solids and the interfacial tension (IFT) that results is important for predicting behavior and properties in industrial systems and in nature, such as in rock formations before, during, and after CO 2 injection for long-term storage. Many authors have studied the effect of the environmental variables on the IFT in the CO 2 -H 2 O system. However, experimental measurements above CO 2 supercritical conditions are scarce and sometimes contradictory. Molecular modeling is a valuable tool for complementing experimental IFT determination, and it can help us interpret results and gain insight under conditions where experiments are difficult or impossible. Here, we report predictions for CO 2 -water interfacial tension performed using density functional theory (DFT) combined with the COSMO-RS implicit solvent model. We predicted the IFT dependence as a function of pressure (0-50 MPa), temperature (273-383 K), and salinity (0-5 M NaCl). The results agree well with literature data, within the estimated uncertainty for experiments and for molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, suggesting that the model can be used as a fast alternative to time-consuming computational approaches for predicting the CO 2 -water IFT over a range of pressures, temperatures, and salinities.

Use of the Azimuth Wavelength Cut-Off to Retrieve the Sea Surface Wind Speed from Sentinel 1 and COSMO-SkyMed SAR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grieco, G.; Nirchio, F.; Montuori, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Lin, W.; Portabella, M.

2016-08-01

The dependency of the azimuth wavelength cut-off on the wind speed has been studied through a dataset of Sentinel-1 multi look SAR images co-located with wind speed measurements, significant wave height and mean wave direction from ECMWF operational output.A Geophysical Model Function (GMF) has been fitted and a retrieval exercise has been done comparing the results to a set of independent wind speed scatterometer measurements of the Chinese mission HY-2A. The preliminary results show that the dependency of the azimuth cut-off on the wind speed is linear only for fully developed sea states and that the agreement between the retrieved values and the measurements is good especially for high wind speed.A similar approach has been used to assess the dependency of the azimuth cut-off also for X-band COSMO-SkyMed data. The dataset is still incomplete but the preliminary results show a similar trend.

A new service support tool for COSMO-SkyMed: civil user coordination service and civil request management optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daraio, M. G.; Battagliere, M. L.; Sacco, P.; Fasano, L.; Coletta, A.

2015-10-01

COSMO-SkyMed is a dual-use program for both civilian and defense provides user community (institutional and commercial) with SAR data in several environmental applications. In the context of COSMO-SkyMed data and User management, one of the aspects carefully monitored is the user satisfaction level, it is links to satisfaction of submitted user requests. The operational experience of the first years of operational phase, and the consequent lessons learnt by the COSMO-SkyMed data and user management, have demonstrated that a lot of acquisition rejections are due to conflicts (time conflicts or system conflicts) among two or more civilian user requests, and they can be managed and solved implementing an improved coordination of users and their requests on a daily basis. With this aim a new Service Support Tool (SST) has been designed and developed to support the operators in the User Request coordination. The Tool allow to analyze conflicts among Acquisition Requests (ARs) before the National Rankization phase and to elaborate proposals for conflict resolution. In this paper the most common causes of the occurred rejections will be showed, for example as the impossibility to aggregate different orders, and the SST functionalities will be described, in particular how it works to remove or minimize the conflicts among different orders.

Adhesion and Interphase Properties of Reinforced Polymeric Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, Kyle Bernd

Reinforced polymeric composites are an increasingly utilized material with a wide range of applications. Fiber reinforced polymeric composites, in particular, possess impressive mechanical properties at a fraction of the weight of many other building materials. There will always, however, be a demand for producing lighter, stiffer, and stronger materials. Understanding the mechanism of adhesion and ways to engineer the reinforcement-matrix interphase can lead to the development of new materials with improved mechanical properties, and even impart additional functionality such as electrical conductivity. The performance of reinforced polymeric composites is critically dependent upon the adhesion between the reinforcement and the surrounding polymer. The relative adhesion between a filler and a thermoplastic matrix can be predicted using calculable thermodynamic quantities such as the Gibbs free energy of mixing. A recent model, COSMO-SAC, is capable of predicting the adhesion between organo-silane treated glass surfaces and several thermoplastic materials. COSMO-SAC uses information based on the charge distribution of a molecule's surface to calculate many thermodynamic properties. Density functional theory calculations, which are relative inexpensive computations, generate the information necessary to perform the COSMO-SAC analysis and can be performed on any given molecule. The flexibility of the COSMO-SAC model is one of the main advantages it possesses over other methods for calculating thermodynamic quantities. In many cases the adhesion between a reinforcing fiber and the surrounding matrix may be improved by incorporating interphase modifiers in the vicinity of the fiber surface. The modifiers can improve the fracture toughness and modulus of the interphase, which may improve the stress transfer from the matrix to the fiber. In addition, the interphase modifiers may improve the mechanical interlock between the fiber surface and the bulk polymer, leading to improved adhesion. In recent years, the use of so called "migrating agents" have been used to self-assemble nanoparticle reinforced fiber-matrix interphases in thermosetting resin systems. The inclusion of a modest amount of thermoplastic migrating agent can lead to the formation of a self-assembled interphase, without causing aggregation of nanoparticles in the bulk phase. Formulations containing excess migrating agent, however, can induce aggregation in the bulk of increasing severity with increasing migrating agent concentration. Several techniques were used to study the mechanism by which the migrating agents operate including, scanning electron microscopy, and in situ fluorescence microscopy. The self-assembly mechanism by which migrating agents operate is described well by depletion forces, which are depend on the geometry of the approaching objects, as well as the migrating agent molecular weight and concentration.

Prediction of the vapor pressure and vaporization enthalpy of 1-n-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium-bis-(trifluoromethanesulfonyl) amide ionic liquids.

PubMed

Diedenhofen, Michael; Klamt, Andreas; Marsh, Kenneth; Schäfer, Ansgar

2007-09-07

The vapor pressures and vaporization enthalpies of a series of 1-n-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium-bis-(trifluoromethanesulfonyl) amide ionic liquids have been predicted with two different approaches using the COSMO-RS method and quantum chemical gas phase calculations. While the calculated enthalpies are in good agreement with the experimental data, COSMO-RS seems to underestimate the vapor pressures by roughly 0.5-4 log units dependent on the IL and approach used.

COSMO 09

ScienceCinema

None

2018-06-20

This year's edition of the annual Cosmo International Conference on Particle Physics and Cosmology -- Cosmo09 -- will be hosted by the CERN Theory Group from Monday September 7 till Friday September 11, 2009. The conference will take place at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). The Cosmo series is one of the major venues of interaction between cosmologists and particle physicists. In the exciting LHC era, the Conference will be devoted to the modern interfaces between Fundamental and Phenomenological Particle Physics and Physical Cosmology and Astronomy. The Conference will be followed by the CERN TH Institute "Particle Cosmology" which will take place from Monday September 14 till Friday September 18, 2009. The CERN-TH Institutes are visitor programs intended to bring together scientists with similar interests and to promote scientific collaborations. If you wish to participate, please register on the Institute web page. Link to last editions: COSMO 07 (U. of Sussex), COSMO 08 (U. of Wisconsin). List of plenary speakers: Gianfranco Bertone, Pierre Binetruy, Francois Bouchet, Juerg Diemand, Jonathan Feng, Gregory Gabadadze, Francis Halzen, Steen Hannestad, Will Kinney, Johannes Knapp, Hiranya Peiris, Will Percival, Syksy Rasanen, Alexandre Refregier, Pierre Salati, Roman Scoccimarro, Michael Schubnell, Christian Spiering, Neil Spooner, Andrew Tolley, Matteo Viel. The plenary program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each plenary session to see details. Parallel sessions: Inflation, convenor: Andrew Liddle. Dark matter, convenor: Marco Cirelli. Dark energy and modified gravity, convenor: Kazuya Koyama. CMB, LSS and cosmological parameters/models, convenor: Licia Verde. String cosmology, convenor: Jim Cline. Baryogenesis and leptogenesis, convenor: Mariano Quiros. The submission of talk proposals is closed by now. The parallel session program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each parallel session title to see details. Posters. Participants willing to present a poster will be offered the opportunity to hang it in the hall, next to the main auditorium. The poster application is closed by now. The poster list is available on-line. Registration. On-line registration is open from January 16 till August 31 (click on the link in the left menu). There will be no registration fees. [Thanks to the generosity of EU's network "UniverseNet", we have some limited funds available for supporting the visit of a few young scientists who could not attend otherwise. The application for funding is closed by now. All applicants have already been informed of the success of their application.] Accomodation. Participants are expected to arrange their accomodation by themselves: some rooms with shower, wc and washbasin have been blocked in the CERN hostel for the conference (price: 58CHF/night). Unfortunately, all these rooms have already been booked. You can book a hotel in Geneva or in the area surrounding CERN using this list. If you book a hotel on the French side, be sure to have a passport or a visa valid also in France. All participants are expected to be in possession of a passport or a visa valid in Swizerland (if relevant), and to be covered by their own health insurance during their visit. Sponsors. This conference is receiving support from the European Community's Marie Curie Research and Training Network UniverseNet.

COSMO 09

ScienceCinema

Peiris, Hiranya

2018-06-12

This year's edition of the annual Cosmo International Conference on Particle Physics and Cosmology -- Cosmo09 -- will be hosted by the CERN Theory Group from Monday September 7 till Friday September 11, 2009. The conference will take place at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). The Cosmo series is one of the major venues of interaction between cosmologists and particle physicists. In the exciting LHC era, the Conference will be devoted to the modern interfaces between Fundamental and Phenomenological Particle Physics and Physical Cosmology and Astronomy. The Conference will be followed by the CERN TH Institute "Particle Cosmology" which will take place from Monday September 14 till Friday September 18, 2009. The CERN-TH Institutes are visitor programs intended to bring together scientists with similar interests and to promote scientific collaborations. If you wish to participate, please register on the Institute web page. Link to last editions: COSMO 07 (U. of Sussex), COSMO 08 (U. of Wisconsin) List of plenary speakers: Gianfranco Bertone, Pierre Binetruy, Francois Bouchet, Juerg Diemand, Jonathan Feng, Gregory Gabadadze, Francis Halzen, Steen Hannestad, Will Kinney, Johannes Knapp, Hiranya Peiris, Will Percival, Syksy Rasanen, Alexandre Refregier, Pierre Salati, Roman Scoccimarro, Michael Schubnell, Christian Spiering, Neil Spooner, Andrew Tolley, Matteo Viel. The plenary program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each plenary session to see details. Parallel sessions: Inflation, convenor: Andrew Liddle Dark matter, convenor: Marco Cirelli Dark energy and modified gravity, convenor: Kazuya Koyama CMB, LSS and cosmological parameters/models, convenor: Licia Verde String cosmology, convenor: Jim Cline Baryogenesis and leptogenesis, convenor: Mariano Quiros The submission of talk proposals is closed by now. The parallel session program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each parallel session title to see details. Posters. Participants willing to present a poster will be offered the opportunity to hang it in the hall, next to the main auditorium. The poster application is closed by now. The poster list is available on-line. Registration. On-line registration is open from January 16 till August 31 (click on the link in the left menu). There will be no registration fees. [Thanks to the generosity of EU's network "UniverseNet", we have some limited funds available for supporting the visit of a few young scientists who could not attend otherwise.The application for funding is closed by now. All applicants have already been informed of the success of their application.] Accomodation. Participants are expected to arrange their accomodation by themselves: some rooms with shower, wc and washbasin have been blocked in the CERN hostel for the conference (price: 58CHF/night). Unfortunately, all these rooms have already been booked. You can book a hotel in Geneva or in the area surrounding CERN using this list. If you book a hotel on the French side, be sure to have a passport or a visa valid also in France. All participants are expected to be in possession of a passport or a visa valid in Swizerland (if relevant), and to be covered by their own health insurance during their visit. Sponsors. This conference is receiving support from the European Community's Marie Curie Research and Training Network UniverseNet.

COSMO 09

ScienceCinema

Knapp, Johannes

2018-06-14

This year's edition of the annual Cosmo International Conference on Particle Physics and Cosmology -- Cosmo09 -- will be hosted by the CERN Theory Group from Monday September 7 till Friday September 11, 2009. The conference will take place at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). The Cosmo series is one of the major venues of interaction between cosmologists and particle physicists. In the exciting LHC era, the Conference will be devoted to the modern interfaces between Fundamental and Phenomenological Particle Physics and Physical Cosmology and Astronomy. The Conference will be followed by the CERN TH Institute "Particle Cosmology" which will take place from Monday September 14 till Friday September 18, 2009. The CERN-TH Institutes are visitor programs intended to bring together scientists with similar interests and to promote scientific collaborations. If you wish to participate, please register on the Institute web page. Link to last editions: COSMO 07 (U. of Sussex), COSMO 08 (U. of Wisconsin) List of plenary speakers: Gianfranco Bertone, Pierre Binetruy, Francois Bouchet, Juerg Diemand, Jonathan Feng, Gregory Gabadadze, Francis Halzen, Steen Hannestad, Will Kinney, Johannes Knapp, Hiranya Peiris, Will Percival, Syksy Rasanen, Alexandre Refregier, Pierre Salati, Roman Scoccimarro, Michael Schubnell, Christian Spiering, Neil Spooner, Andrew Tolley, Matteo Viel. The plenary program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each plenary session to see details. Parallel sessions: Inflation, convenor: Andrew Liddle Dark matter, convenor: Marco Cirelli Dark energy and modified gravity, convenor: Kazuya Koyama CMB, LSS and cosmological parameters/models, convenor: Licia Verde String cosmology, convenor: Jim Cline Baryogenesis and leptogenesis, convenor: Mariano Quiros The submission of talk proposals is closed by now. The parallel session program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each parallel session title to see details. Posters. Participants willing to present a poster will be offered the opportunity to hang it in the hall, next to the main auditorium. The poster application is closed by now. The poster list is available on-line. Registration. On-line registration is open from January 16 till August 31 (click on the link in the left menu). There will be no registration fees. [Thanks to the generosity of EU's network "UniverseNet", we have some limited funds available for supporting the visit of a few young scientists who could not attend otherwise. The application for funding is closed by now. All applicants have already been informed of the success of their application.] Accomodation. Participants are expected to arrange their accomodation by themselves: some rooms with shower, wc and washbasin have been blocked in the CERN hostel for the conference(price: 58CHF/night). Unfortunately, all these rooms have already been booked. You can book a hotel in Geneva or in the area surrounding CERN using this list. If you book a hotel on the French side, be sure to have a passport or a visa valid also in France. All participants are expected to be in possession of a passport or a visa valid in Swizerland (if relevant), and to be covered by their own health insurance during their visit. Sponsors. This conference is receiving support from the European Community's Marie Curie Research and Training Network UniverseNet.

COSMO 09

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

This year's edition of the annual Cosmo International Conference on Particle Physics and Cosmology -- Cosmo09 -- will be hosted by the CERN Theory Group from Monday September 7 till Friday September 11, 2009. The conference will take place at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). The Cosmo series is one of the major venues of interaction between cosmologists and particle physicists. In the exciting LHC era, the Conference will be devoted to the modern interfaces between Fundamental and Phenomenological Particle Physics and Physical Cosmology and Astronomy. The Conference will be followed by the CERN TH Institute "Particle Cosmology" which will take placemore » from Monday September 14 till Friday September 18, 2009. The CERN-TH Institutes are visitor programs intended to bring together scientists with similar interests and to promote scientific collaborations. If you wish to participate, please register on the Institute web page. Link to last editions: COSMO 07 (U. of Sussex), COSMO 08 (U. of Wisconsin). List of plenary speakers: Gianfranco Bertone, Pierre Binetruy, Francois Bouchet, Juerg Diemand, Jonathan Feng, Gregory Gabadadze, Francis Halzen, Steen Hannestad, Will Kinney, Johannes Knapp, Hiranya Peiris, Will Percival, Syksy Rasanen, Alexandre Refregier, Pierre Salati, Roman Scoccimarro, Michael Schubnell, Christian Spiering, Neil Spooner, Andrew Tolley, Matteo Viel. The plenary program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each plenary session to see details. Parallel sessions: Inflation, convenor: Andrew Liddle. Dark matter, convenor: Marco Cirelli. Dark energy and modified gravity, convenor: Kazuya Koyama. CMB, LSS and cosmological parameters/models, convenor: Licia Verde. String cosmology, convenor: Jim Cline. Baryogenesis and leptogenesis, convenor: Mariano Quiros. The submission of talk proposals is closed by now. The parallel session program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each parallel session title to see details. Posters. Participants willing to present a poster will be offered the opportunity to hang it in the hall, next to the main auditorium. The poster application is closed by now. The poster list is available on-line. Registration. On-line registration is open from January 16 till August 31 (click on the link in the left menu). There will be no registration fees. [Thanks to the generosity of EU's network "UniverseNet", we have some limited funds available for supporting the visit of a few young scientists who could not attend otherwise. The application for funding is closed by now. All applicants have already been informed of the success of their application.] Accomodation. Participants are expected to arrange their accomodation by themselves: some rooms with shower, wc and washbasin have been blocked in the CERN hostel for the conference (price: 58CHF/night). Unfortunately, all these rooms have already been booked. You can book a hotel in Geneva or in the area surrounding CERN using this list. If you book a hotel on the French side, be sure to have a passport or a visa valid also in France. All participants are expected to be in possession of a passport or a visa valid in Swizerland (if relevant), and to be covered by their own health insurance during their visit. Sponsors. This conference is receiving support from the European Community's Marie Curie Research and Training Network UniverseNet.« less

COSMO 09

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

This year's edition of the annual Cosmo International Conference on Particle Physics and Cosmology -- Cosmo09 -- will be hosted by the CERN Theory Group from Monday September 7 till Friday September 11, 2009. The conference will take place at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). The Cosmo series is one of the major venues of interaction between cosmologists and particle physicists. In the exciting LHC era, the Conference will be devoted to the modern interfaces between Fundamental and Phenomenological Particle Physics and Physical Cosmology and Astronomy. The Conference will be followed by the CERN TH Institute "Particle Cosmology" which will take placemore » from Monday September 14 till Friday September 18, 2009. The CERN-TH Institutes are visitor programs intended to bring together scientists with similar interests and to promote scientific collaborations. If you wish to participate, please register on the Institute web page. Link to last editions: COSMO 07 (U. of Sussex), COSMO 08 (U. of Wisconsin) List of plenary speakers: Gianfranco Bertone, Pierre Binetruy, Francois Bouchet, Juerg Diemand, Jonathan Feng, Gregory Gabadadze, Francis Halzen, Steen Hannestad, Will Kinney, Johannes Knapp, Hiranya Peiris, Will Percival, Syksy Rasanen, Alexandre Refregier, Pierre Salati, Roman Scoccimarro, Michael Schubnell, Christian Spiering, Neil Spooner, Andrew Tolley, Matteo Viel. The plenary program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each plenary session to see details. Parallel sessions: Inflation, convenor: Andrew Liddle Dark matter, convenor: Marco Cirelli Dark energy and modified gravity, convenor: Kazuya Koyama CMB, LSS and cosmological parameters/models, convenor: Licia Verde String cosmology, convenor: Jim Cline Baryogenesis and leptogenesis, convenor: Mariano Quiros The submission of talk proposals is closed by now. The parallel session program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each parallel session title to see details. Posters. Participants willing to present a poster will be offered the opportunity to hang it in the hall, next to the main auditorium. The poster application is closed by now. The poster list is available on-line. Registration. On-line registration is open from January 16 till August 31 (click on the link in the left menu). There will be no registration fees. [Thanks to the generosity of EU's network "UniverseNet", we have some limited funds available for supporting the visit of a few young scientists who could not attend otherwise. The application for funding is closed by now. All applicants have already been informed of the success of their application.] Accomodation. Participants are expected to arrange their accomodation by themselves: some rooms with shower, wc and washbasin have been blocked in the CERN hostel for the conference (price: 58CHF/night). Unfortunately, all these rooms have already been booked. You can book a hotel in Geneva or in the area surrounding CERN using this list. If you book a hotel on the French side, be sure to have a passport or a visa valid also in France. All participants are expected to be in possession of a passport or a visa valid in Swizerland (if relevant), and to be covered by their own health insurance during their visit. Sponsors. This conference is receiving support from the European Community's Marie Curie Research and Training Network UniverseNet.« less

COSMO 09

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peiris, Hiranya

This year's edition of the annual Cosmo International Conference on Particle Physics and Cosmology -- Cosmo09 -- will be hosted by the CERN Theory Group from Monday September 7 till Friday September 11, 2009. The conference will take place at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). The Cosmo series is one of the major venues of interaction between cosmologists and particle physicists. In the exciting LHC era, the Conference will be devoted to the modern interfaces between Fundamental and Phenomenological Particle Physics and Physical Cosmology and Astronomy. The Conference will be followed by the CERN TH Institute "Particle Cosmology" which will take placemore » from Monday September 14 till Friday September 18, 2009. The CERN-TH Institutes are visitor programs intended to bring together scientists with similar interests and to promote scientific collaborations. If you wish to participate, please register on the Institute web page. Link to last editions: COSMO 07 (U. of Sussex), COSMO 08 (U. of Wisconsin) List of plenary speakers: Gianfranco Bertone, Pierre Binetruy, Francois Bouchet, Juerg Diemand, Jonathan Feng, Gregory Gabadadze, Francis Halzen, Steen Hannestad, Will Kinney, Johannes Knapp, Hiranya Peiris, Will Percival, Syksy Rasanen, Alexandre Refregier, Pierre Salati, Roman Scoccimarro, Michael Schubnell, Christian Spiering, Neil Spooner, Andrew Tolley, Matteo Viel. The plenary program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each plenary session to see details. Parallel sessions: Inflation, convenor: Andrew Liddle Dark matter, convenor: Marco Cirelli Dark energy and modified gravity, convenor: Kazuya Koyama CMB, LSS and cosmological parameters/models, convenor: Licia Verde String cosmology, convenor: Jim Cline Baryogenesis and leptogenesis, convenor: Mariano Quiros The submission of talk proposals is closed by now. The parallel session program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each parallel session title to see details. Posters. Participants willing to present a poster will be offered the opportunity to hang it in the hall, next to the main auditorium. The poster application is closed by now. The poster list is available on-line. Registration. On-line registration is open from January 16 till August 31 (click on the link in the left menu). There will be no registration fees. [Thanks to the generosity of EU's network "UniverseNet", we have some limited funds available for supporting the visit of a few young scientists who could not attend otherwise.The application for funding is closed by now. All applicants have already been informed of the success of their application.] Accomodation. Participants are expected to arrange their accomodation by themselves: some rooms with shower, wc and washbasin have been blocked in the CERN hostel for the conference (price: 58CHF/night). Unfortunately, all these rooms have already been booked. You can book a hotel in Geneva or in the area surrounding CERN using this list. If you book a hotel on the French side, be sure to have a passport or a visa valid also in France. All participants are expected to be in possession of a passport or a visa valid in Swizerland (if relevant), and to be covered by their own health insurance during their visit. Sponsors. This conference is receiving support from the European Community's Marie Curie Research and Training Network UniverseNet.« less

COSMO 09

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salati, Pierre

Part 5 lecture. Outline 1) Evidence for primary cosmic ray positrons 2) DM species with quite special properties 3) The effect of clumpiness on DM annihilaion 4) Decaying dark matter 5) perpectives more than conclusions. This year's edition of the annual Cosmo International Conference on Particle Physics and Cosmology -- Cosmo09 -- will be hosted by the CERN Theory Group from Monday September 7 till Friday September 11, 2009. The conference will take place at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). The Cosmo series is one of the major venues of interaction between cosmologists and particle physicists. In the exciting LHC era, themore » Conference will be devoted to the modern interfaces between Fundamental and Phenomenological Particle Physics and Physical Cosmology and Astronomy. The Conference will be followed by the CERN TH Institute "Particle Cosmology" which will take place from Monday September 14 till Friday September 18, 2009. The CERN-TH Institutes are visitor programs intended to bring together scientists with similar interests and to promote scientific collaborations. If you wish to participate, please register on the Institute web page. Link to last editions: COSMO 07 (U. of Sussex), COSMO 08 (U. of Wisconsin) List of plenary speakers: Gianfranco Bertone, Pierre Binetruy, Francois Bouchet, Juerg Diemand, Jonathan Feng, Gregory Gabadadze, Francis Halzen, Steen Hannestad, Will Kinney, Johannes Knapp, Hiranya Peiris, Will Percival, Syksy Rasanen, Alexandre Refregier, Pierre Salati, Roman Scoccimarro, Michael Schubnell, Christian Spiering, Neil Spooner, Andrew Tolley, Matteo Viel. The plenary program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each plenary session to see details. Parallel sessions: Inflation, convenor: Andrew Liddle Dark matter, convenor: Marco Cirelli Dark energy and modified gravity, convenor: Kazuya Koyama CMB, LSS and cosmological parameters/models, convenor: Licia Verde String cosmology, convenor: Jim Cline Baryogenesis and leptogenesis, convenor: Mariano Quiros The submission of talk proposals is closed by now. The parallel session program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each parallel session title to see details. Posters. Participants willing to present a poster will be offered the opportunity to hang it in the hall, next to the main auditorium. The poster application is closed by now. The poster list is available on-line. Registration. On-line registration is open from January 16 till August 31 (click on the link in the left menu). There will be no registration fees.[Thanks to the generosity of EU's network "UniverseNet", we have some limited funds available for supporting the visit of a few young scientists who could not attend otherwise. The application for funding is closed by now. All applicants have already been informed of the success of their application.] Accomodation. Participants are expected to arrange their accomodation by themselves: some rooms with shower, wc and washbasin have been blocked in the CERN hostel for the conference (price: 58CHF/night). Unfortunately, all these rooms have already been booked. You can book a hotel in Geneva or in the area surrounding CERN using this list. If you book a hotel on the French side, be sure to have a passport or a visa valid also in France. All participants are expected to be in possession of a passport or a visa valid in Swizerland (if relevant), and to be covered by their own health insurance during their visit. Sponsors. This conference is receiving support from the European Community's Marie Curie Research and Training Network UniverseNet.« less

COSMO 09

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knapp, Johannes

This year's edition of the annual Cosmo International Conference on Particle Physics and Cosmology -- Cosmo09 -- will be hosted by the CERN Theory Group from Monday September 7 till Friday September 11, 2009. The conference will take place at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). The Cosmo series is one of the major venues of interaction between cosmologists and particle physicists. In the exciting LHC era, the Conference will be devoted to the modern interfaces between Fundamental and Phenomenological Particle Physics and Physical Cosmology and Astronomy. The Conference will be followed by the CERN TH Institute "Particle Cosmology" which will take placemore » from Monday September 14 till Friday September 18, 2009. The CERN-TH Institutes are visitor programs intended to bring together scientists with similar interests and to promote scientific collaborations. If you wish to participate, please register on the Institute web page. Link to last editions: COSMO 07 (U. of Sussex), COSMO 08 (U. of Wisconsin) List of plenary speakers: Gianfranco Bertone, Pierre Binetruy, Francois Bouchet, Juerg Diemand, Jonathan Feng, Gregory Gabadadze, Francis Halzen, Steen Hannestad, Will Kinney, Johannes Knapp, Hiranya Peiris, Will Percival, Syksy Rasanen, Alexandre Refregier, Pierre Salati, Roman Scoccimarro, Michael Schubnell, Christian Spiering, Neil Spooner, Andrew Tolley, Matteo Viel. The plenary program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each plenary session to see details. Parallel sessions: Inflation, convenor: Andrew Liddle Dark matter, convenor: Marco Cirelli Dark energy and modified gravity, convenor: Kazuya Koyama CMB, LSS and cosmological parameters/models, convenor: Licia Verde String cosmology, convenor: Jim Cline Baryogenesis and leptogenesis, convenor: Mariano Quiros The submission of talk proposals is closed by now. The parallel session program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each parallel session title to see details. Posters. Participants willing to present a poster will be offered the opportunity to hang it in the hall, next to the main auditorium. The poster application is closed by now. The poster list is available on-line. Registration. On-line registration is open from January 16 till August 31 (click on the link in the left menu). There will be no registration fees. [Thanks to the generosity of EU's network "UniverseNet", we have some limited funds available for supporting the visit of a few young scientists who could not attend otherwise. The application for funding is closed by now. All applicants have already been informed of the success of their application.] Accomodation. Participants are expected to arrange their accomodation by themselves: some rooms with shower, wc and washbasin have been blocked in the CERN hostel for the conference(price: 58CHF/night). Unfortunately, all these rooms have already been booked. You can book a hotel in Geneva or in the area surrounding CERN using this list. If you book a hotel on the French side, be sure to have a passport or a visa valid also in France. All participants are expected to be in possession of a passport or a visa valid in Swizerland (if relevant), and to be covered by their own health insurance during their visit. Sponsors. This conference is receiving support from the European Community's Marie Curie Research and Training Network UniverseNet.« less

COSMO 09

ScienceCinema

None

2018-06-13

This year's edition of the annual Cosmo International Conference on Particle Physics and Cosmology -- Cosmo09 -- will be hosted by the CERN Theory Group from Monday September 7 till Friday September 11, 2009. The conference will take place at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). The Cosmo series is one of the major venues of interaction between cosmologists and particle physicists. In the exciting LHC era, the Conference will be devoted to the modern interfaces between Fundamental and Phenomenological Particle Physics and Physical Cosmology and Astronomy. The Conference will be followed by the CERN TH Institute "Particle Cosmology" which will take place from Monday September 14 till Friday September 18, 2009. The CERN-TH Institutes are visitor programs intended to bring together scientists with similar interests and to promote scientific collaborations. If you wish to participate, please register on the Institute web page. Link to last editions: COSMO 07 (U. of Sussex), COSMO 08 (U. of Wisconsin) List of plenary speakers: Gianfranco Bertone, Pierre Binetruy, Francois Bouchet, Juerg Diemand, Jonathan Feng, Gregory Gabadadze, Francis Halzen, Steen Hannestad, Will Kinney, Johannes Knapp, Hiranya Peiris, Will Percival, Syksy Rasanen, Alexandre Refregier, Pierre Salati, Roman Scoccimarro, Michael Schubnell, Christian Spiering, Neil Spooner, Andrew Tolley, Matteo Viel. The plenary program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each plenary session to see details. Parallel sessions: Inflation, convenor: Andrew Liddle Dark matter, convenor: Marco Cirelli Dark energy and modified gravity, convenor: Kazuya Koyama CMB, LSS and cosmological parameters/models, convenor: Licia Verde String cosmology, convenor: Jim Cline Baryogenesis and leptogenesis, convenor: Mariano Quiros The submission of talk proposals is closed by now. The parallel session program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each parallel session title to see details. Posters. Participants willing to present a poster will be offered the opportunity to hang it in the hall, next to the main auditorium. The poster application is closed by now. The poster list is available on-line. Registration. On-line registration is open from January 16 till August 31 (click on the link in the left menu). There will be no registration fees. [Thanks to the generosity of EU's network "UniverseNet", we have some limited funds available for supporting the visit of a few young scientists who could not attend otherwise. The application for funding is closed by now. All applicants have already been informed of the success of their application.] Accomodation. Participants are expected to arrange their accomodation by themselves: some rooms with shower, wc and washbasin have been blocked in the CERN hostel for the conference (price: 58CHF/night). Unfortunately, all these rooms have already been booked. You can book a hotel in Geneva or in the area surrounding CERN using this list. If you book a hotel on the French side, be sure to have a passport or a visa valid also in France. All participants are expected to be in possession of a passport or a visa valid in Swizerland (if relevant), and to be covered by their own health insurance during their visit. Sponsors. This conference is receiving support from the European Community's Marie Curie Research and Training Network UniverseNet.

COSMO 09

ScienceCinema

Salati, Pierre

2018-05-24

Part 5 lecture. Outline 1) Evidence for primary cosmic ray positrons 2) DM species with quite special properties 3) The effect of clumpiness on DM annihilaion 4) Decaying dark matter 5) perpectives more than conclusions. This year's edition of the annual Cosmo International Conference on Particle Physics and Cosmology -- Cosmo09 -- will be hosted by the CERN Theory Group from Monday September 7 till Friday September 11, 2009. The conference will take place at CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). The Cosmo series is one of the major venues of interaction between cosmologists and particle physicists. In the exciting LHC era, the Conference will be devoted to the modern interfaces between Fundamental and Phenomenological Particle Physics and Physical Cosmology and Astronomy. The Conference will be followed by the CERN TH Institute "Particle Cosmology" which will take place from Monday September 14 till Friday September 18, 2009. The CERN-TH Institutes are visitor programs intended to bring together scientists with similar interests and to promote scientific collaborations. If you wish to participate, please register on the Institute web page. Link to last editions: COSMO 07 (U. of Sussex), COSMO 08 (U. of Wisconsin) List of plenary speakers: Gianfranco Bertone, Pierre Binetruy, Francois Bouchet, Juerg Diemand, Jonathan Feng, Gregory Gabadadze, Francis Halzen, Steen Hannestad, Will Kinney, Johannes Knapp, Hiranya Peiris, Will Percival, Syksy Rasanen, Alexandre Refregier, Pierre Salati, Roman Scoccimarro, Michael Schubnell, Christian Spiering, Neil Spooner, Andrew Tolley, Matteo Viel. The plenary program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each plenary session to see details. Parallel sessions: Inflation, convenor: Andrew Liddle Dark matter, convenor: Marco Cirelli Dark energy and modified gravity, convenor: Kazuya Koyama CMB, LSS and cosmological parameters/models, convenor: Licia Verde String cosmology, convenor: Jim Cline Baryogenesis and leptogenesis, convenor: Mariano Quiros The submission of talk proposals is closed by now. The parallel session program is available on-line. Select "Preliminary programme" in the left menu and click on each parallel session title to see details. Posters. Participants willing to present a poster will be offered the opportunity to hang it in the hall, next to the main auditorium. The poster application is closed by now. The poster list is available on-line. Registration. On-line registration is open from January 16 till August 31 (click on the link in the left menu). There will be no registration fees.[Thanks to the generosity of EU's network "UniverseNet", we have some limited funds available for supporting the visit of a few young scientists who could not attend otherwise. The application for funding is closed by now. All applicants have already been informed of the success of their application.] Accomodation. Participants are expected to arrange their accomodation by themselves: some rooms with shower, wc and washbasin have been blocked in the CERN hostel for the conference (price: 58CHF/night). Unfortunately, all these rooms have already been booked. You can book a hotel in Geneva or in the area surrounding CERN using this list. If you book a hotel on the French side, be sure to have a passport or a visa valid also in France. All participants are expected to be in possession of a passport or a visa valid in Swizerland (if relevant), and to be covered by their own health insurance during their visit. Sponsors. This conference is receiving support from the European Community's Marie Curie Research and Training Network UniverseNet.

CosmoQuest - Scientist Engagement with the Public and Schools via a Virtual Research Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noel-Storr, Jacob; Buxner, Sanlyn; Gay, Pamela L.; Grier, Jennifer A.; Lehan, Cory; CosmoQuest Team

2016-06-01

CosmoQuest is a virtual research facility where science data can be analyzed by teams of interested citizen scientists from across the world. Scientists can apply to have their data analyzed through crowdsourcing in our online observatory, which generates validated and publishable results (Robbins et al 2014). Scientists have the opportunity to provide connections to teachers in classrooms so that students can analyze original data and understand the process that astronomers go through from image to result. Scientists can also teach online classes for different audiences including formal classroom teachers, informal educators, and lifelong learners to further the broader impacts of their work and increase engagement in their scientific endeavors. We provide training, through online and in-person workshops, on how to incorporate your datasets into the observatory and how to deliver online classes through our CosmoAcademy. This work is funded in part by NASA Cooperative Agreement Notice number NNX16AC68A. For more information, visit http://cosmoquest.org/.

Results of Needs Assessments Related to Citizen Science Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buxner, Sanlyn; Bracey, Georgia; Glushko, Anna; Bakerman, Maya; Gay, Pamela L.; CosmoQuest Team

2017-01-01

The CosmoQuest Virtual Research Facility invites the public and classrooms to participate in NASA Science Mission Directorate related research that leads to publishable results and data catalogues. One of the main goals of the project is to support professional scientists in doing science and the general public--including parents, children, teachers, and students--in learning and doing science. Through the effort, the CosmoQuest team is developing a variety of supports and opportunities to support the doing and teaching of science. To inform our efforts, we have implemented a set of needs surveys to assess the needs of our different audiences. These surveys are being used to understand the interests, motivations, resources, challenges and demographics of our growing CosmoQuest community and others interested in engaging in citizen science projects. The surveys include those for teachers, parents, adult learners, planetarium professionals, subject matter experts (SMEs), and the general public. We will share the results of these surveys and discuss the implications of the results for broader education and outreach programs.

Leveraging CosmoQuest: Quantitative Analysis of Audience Interests and Behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buxner, S.; Gay, P.; Bakerman, M. N.; Graziano, N.; Murph, S.; Reiheld, A.

2017-12-01

Online science education projects have the potential to reach larger audiences than any other form of public engagement. For this potential to be realized, educators and communicators must get their message heard above the roar of competing content - the news, memes, games, and gossip that dominate online spaces. Once heard, projects must further inspire engagement, and that engagement needs to be meaningful so that it motivates and supports learning. The CosmoQuest project, launched in 2012, has been collecting data on what factors trigger engagement, and how social media in particular can be used to learn about audiences interests, and measure what kinds of messages trigger interaction. This study examines the interplay between social media frequency and messaging, and user engagement in educational content and citizen science. It further data mines Twitter to directly measure the interests of people who follow CosmoQuest on social media. This information will allow us to effectively recruit new people from space science adjacent interests, and to effectively engage them through research validated strategies.

COSMO-SkyMed Open Call: An Opportunity for the International Scientific Community and National SMEs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battagliere, Maria Libera; Dini, Luigi; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Sacco, Patrizia; Virelli, Maria; Coletta, Alessandro; Piperno, Osvaldo

2016-08-01

COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small satellites for Mediterranean basin Observation) is an Italian Earth Observation (EO) Dual-Use (Civilian and Defence) Space System conceived with the aim to establish a global service able to satisfy almost all user application requirements and most of potential market demand. Thanks to its features, since 2008, Italy plays a key role in the international EO context, being one of the most exploited Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) mission during awareness and disaster events.The Italian Space Agency (ASI) continues to stimulate also the scientific data exploitation of COSMO-SkyMed data, through the issue, in 2015, of an "Open Call for Science", addressed to the international EO scientific community, and an "Open Call for National Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)".This paper is focused on the status and results obtained after one year of activity by ASI through the mentioned calls, considering a quantitative analysis of the received proposals.

Overview of the SkyMed/COSMO mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caltagirone, Francesco; Spera, Paolo; Vigliotti, R.; Manoni, Gemma

1998-12-01

The impact of natural and man-made disasters on the social and economic progress is going to become more significant, making necessary to consider natural disasters reduction. Therefore civil protection and resource managers need elements to make quicker and better decisions on a day-to-day basis, so giving the start to an emerging world-wide remote sensing market. A deep analysis on the potential users, mainly devoted to Mediterranean basin, highlights that existing and/or planned systems are not able to completely satisfy their requirements. To fulfill this gap, Italy decided to promote the SkyMed/COSMO system, presently financed by the Italian Space Agency. SkyMed/COSMO is a constellation of small satellites for observation, remote sensing and data exploitation for risks management and coastal zone monitoring, conceived to provide products, services and logistics to both institutional and commercial remote sensing users on global scale. Furthermore the system is able to satisfy a broad spectrum of important applications also in the field of the resource management, land use and law enforcement. The SkyMed/COSMO current system architecture foresees a constellation of small satellites in two different orbit planes composed by 4 satellite equipped with X-band SAR and 3 satellites equipped with optical sensors. The system is characterized by good spatial resolution, day and night/all-weather imaging capability and by a very good revisit time. The program, currently in phase B, is carried out by an industrial consortium lead by Alenia Aerospazio.

CosmoQuest Year 2: Citizen Science Progress, Motivations, and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gugliucci, Nicole E.; Gay, P. L.; Antonenko, I.; Bracey, G.; Costello, K.; Lehan, C.; Moore, J.; Reilly, E.; Robbins, S. J.; Schmidt, B. E.; CosmoQuest Collaboration

2014-01-01

The CosmoQuest citizen science virtual research facility has wrapped up its second year of operations. With projects mapping the surfaces of the Moon, Mercury, and asteroid Vesta, citizen scientists have marked over 2 million craters as well as other surface features. Analysis of the mapping results show that citizen scientists map high resolution features as well as expert crater markers within a small margin of error. We’ve undertaken a study of citizen science motivations with our users, and find that an interest in astronomy and a desire to contribute new knowledge as primary motivating factors. Ten percent of users surveyed list learning or teaching science as the primary motivating factor. A full analysis of this survey will be presented. Along those lines, the CosmoQuest education team has developed a second middle school educational unit to align with its citizen science projects. In-Vesta-Gate explores asteroid science and is in the trial stage, while we report on several teacher professional development opportunities with Terraluna, a Moon-focused educational unit developed last year. We’ve also taken the CosmoQuest citizen science on the road and outside the website, having a booth and activities at several public events. We present visitor survey results from a recent exhibition at Dragon*Con, a sci-fi/fantasy convention with over 50,000 attendees. We discuss future plans for the project, including the release of several mobile apps to be previewed here.

CosmoQuest: Making the public your students and collaborators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gay, Pamela; Buxner, Sanlyn; Grier, Jennifer; Richardson, Matthew; CosmoQuest Team

2018-01-01

CosmoQuest is a second generation citizen science project that makes it possible for NASA Subject Matter Experts to engage the public as both learners and collaborators in research. Engaging the public in publishable science is termed “Citizen Science.” This is a powerful technique for accomplishing research projects and tasks that require many minds and eyes to complete. While some projects may use undergraduates for help, others simply have too many images or too much data for a small population to sort through. CosmoQuest is a platform that enables scientists to take advantage of already existing science tools to engage the public in their research and to acquire the data analysis they need. Citizen scientists, like students, need their experience properly scaffolded to their understanding, and they require mentoring and training to succeed.This presentation focuses on methods for focusing research projects for successful citizen science engagement, and determining what scaffolding must be built to support citizen education and engagement.This presentation will help you understand how to transform your research project into a successful citizen science engagement. We will also present a flowchart to help you define: what is required, how to focus on what science does and doesn’t work, and what support your project requires. The content presented will allow you to successfully implement a project within the CosmoQuest facility, and determine what educational support you should provide or request aid to provide.

Observation and Modeling of Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprenger, M.; Mayoraz, L.; Stauch, V.; Sharman, B.; Polymeris, J.

2012-04-01

CAT represents a very relevant phenomenon for aviation safety. It can lead to passenger injuries, causes an increase in fuel consumption and, under severe intensity, can involve structural damages to the aircraft. The physical processes causing CAT remain at present not fully understood. Moreover, because of its small scale, CAT cannot be represented in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, the physical processes related to CAT and its representation in NWP models is further investigated. First, 134 CAT events over Europe are extracted from a flight monitoring data base (FDM), run by the SWISS airline and containing over 100'000 flights. The location, time, and meteorological parameters along the turbulent spots are analysed. Furthermore, the 7-km NWP model run by the Swiss National Weather Service (Meteoswiss) is used to calculate model-based CAT indices, e.g. Richardson number, Ellrod & Knapp turbulence index and a complex/combined CAT index developed at NCAR. The CAT indices simulated with COSMO-7 is then compared to the observed CAT spots, hence allowing to assess the model's performance, and potential use in a CAT warning system. In a second step, the meteorological conditions associated with CAT are investigated. To this aim, CAT events are defined as coherent structures in space and in time, i.e. their dimension and life cycle is studied, in connection with jet streams and upper-level fronts. Finally, in a third step the predictability of CAT is assessed, by comparing CAT index predictions based on different lead times of the NWP model COSMO-7

Integration of X-SAR observations with data of other remote sensing techniques: preliminary results achieved with Cosmo/SkyMed announcement of opportunity projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vespe, Francesco; Baldini, Luca; Notarnicola, Claudia; Prati, Claudio; Zerbini, Susanna; Celidonio, G.

2011-11-01

The Italian Space Agency is funding 27 scientific projects in the framework of Cosmo/Skymed program (hereafter CSK) . A subset of them are focusing on the improvements of the quality and quantity of information which can be extracted from X-SAR data if integrated with other independent techniques like GPS or SAR imagery in L and C bands. The GPS observations, namely zenith total delays estimated by means of GPS ground stations, could be helpful to estimate the troposphere bias to remove from IN-SAR imagery. Another contribution of GPS could be the improvements of the orbits of Cosmo/SkyMed satellites. In particular the GPS navigation data of the CSK satellites could serve to improve the atmospheric drag models acting on them. The integration of SAR data in L and C bands on the other hand are helpful to investigate land hydrogeology parameters as well as to improve global precipitation observations. The combined use of L, C and X SAR data with different penetration depth could give profiles of land surface properties, especially in forest and snow/ice-packs. For what concern the use of X-SAR imagery for rain precipitation monitoring, particular attention will be paid to its polarimetric properties that we plan to determine aligning the CSK observations with those obtained with ground L and C radars. Anyway the study goals, the approaches proposed, the test sites identified and the external data selected for the development and validation will be described for each project. Particular attention will be paid to single the advantages that the research activities can benefit from the added potentials of CSK system: the more frequent revisiting time and the higher resolution capabilities.

CosmoQuest: Engaging Students in Authentic Research through Science Fairs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebofsky, Larry A.; Canizo, Thea; Buxner, Sanlyn; Schmitt, Bill; Runco, Susan; Graff, Paige; CosmoQuest Team

2016-10-01

CosmoQuest is embarking on a five-year effort to increase student participation in science fairs through nation-wide training of teachers, science educators, and scientists. The program focuses on helping teachers attain the needed content knowledge and skills to support creation of meaningful science fair research projects. . This includes supporting teachers' understanding of how to engage students in age-appropriate projects as young science and engineering professionals. If successful, students will create their own understanding of STEM content through research. This occurs when students are guided into learning where they become involved at a level that makes it possible for them to independently ask questions and investigate answers by seeking patterns, testing, building conceptual models, and/or designing technology.To support this kind of engagement, we are curating and creating resources to support students of all ages and abilities. Students at different age levels generally have very different developmental reasoning abilities, and engagement and learning are increased when students use age-appropriate reasoning abilities. For instance primary students are effective in observing, communicating, and comparing. As they get older they develop abilities in sequencing and finding relationships. At middle school they add inferring and finally in high school the acquired skills for applying ideas from many disciplines to create more complex understanding.Through a comprehensive program of curriculum development, educator professional development, and building strategic partnerships, we will increase the number and quality of space science related science fair projects in the United States. CosmoQuest is funded through individual donations, through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AC68A, and through additional grants and contracts that are listed on the About page of our website, cosmoquest.org.

A Decade-long Continental-Scale Convection-Resolving Climate Simulation on GPUs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, David; Fuhrer, Oliver; Lapillonne, Xavier; Lüthi, Daniel; Schär, Christoph

2016-04-01

The representation of moist convection in climate models represents a major challenge, due to the small scales involved. Convection-resolving models have proven to be very useful tools in numerical weather prediction and in climate research. Using horizontal grid spacings of O(1km), they allow to explicitly resolve deep convection leading to an improved representation of the water cycle. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. Innovations in the supercomputing domain have led to new supercomputer-designs that involve conventional multicore CPUs and accelerators such as graphics processing units (GPUs). One of the first atmospheric models that has been fully ported to GPUs is the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling weather and climate model COSMO. This new version allows us to expand the size of the simulation domain to areas spanning continents and the time period up to one decade. We present results from a decade-long, convection-resolving climate simulation using the GPU-enabled COSMO version. The simulation is driven by the ERA-interim reanalysis. The results illustrate how the approach allows for the representation of interactions between synoptic-scale and meso-scale atmospheric circulations at scales ranging from 1000 to 10 km. We discuss the performance of the convection-resolving modeling approach on the European scale. Specifically we focus on the annual cycle of convection in Europe, on the organization of convective clouds and on the verification of hourly rainfall with various high resolution datasets.

Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comellas, A.; Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Sairouni, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Siccardi, F.

2011-07-01

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9-10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (≤24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.

COSMO-SkyMed Image Investigation of Snow Features in Alpine Environment

PubMed Central

Paloscia, Simonetta; Pettinato, Simone; Santi, Emanuele; Valt, Mauro

2017-01-01

In this work, X band images acquired by COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) on alpine environment have been analyzed for investigating snow characteristics and their effect on backscattering variations. Preliminary results confirmed the capability of simultaneous optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images (Landsat-8 and CSK) in separating snow/no-snow areas and in detecting wet snow. The sensitivity of backscattering to snow depth has not always been confirmed, depending on snow characteristics related to the season. A model based on Dense Media Radiative Transfer theory (DMRT-QMS) was applied for simulating the backscattering response on the X band from snow cover in different conditions of grain size, snow density and depth. By using DMRT-QMS and snow in-situ data collected on Cordevole basin in Italian Alps, the effect of grain size and snow density, beside snow depth and snow water equivalent, was pointed out, showing that the snow features affect the backscatter in different and sometimes opposite ways. Experimental values of backscattering were correctly simulated by using this model and selected intervals of ground parameters. The relationship between simulated and measured backscattering for the entire dataset shows slope >0.9, determination coefficient, R2 = 0.77, and root mean square error, RMSE = 1.1 dB, with p-value <0.05. PMID:28054962

Urban amplification of the global warming in Moscow megacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kislov, Alexander; Konstantinov, Pavel; Varentsov, Mikhail; Samsonov, Timofey; Gorlach, Irina; Trusilova, Kristina

2015-04-01

Climate changes in the large cities are very important and requires better understanding. The focus of this paper is climate change of the Moscow megacity. Its urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer above the Moscow agglomeration area and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available meteorological observations within the Moscow urban area and surrounding territory allow us to assess the natural climate variations and human-induced climate warming separately. To obtain more precisely viewing on the UHI structure we have included into the analysis the satellite data (Meteosat-10), providing temperature and humidity profiles with high resolution. To investigate the mechanism of the urban amplification we realized the regional climate model COSMO-CLM+TEB. Apart from detailed climate research the model runs will be planned for climate projecting of Moscow agglomeration area. Climate change differences between urban and rural areas are determined by changes of the shape of the UHI and their relationships with changes of building height and density. Therefore, the urban module of COSMO-CLM+TEB model is fed by information from special GIS database contenting both geometric characteristics of the urban canyons and other characteristics of the urban surface. The sources of information were maps belonging to the OpenStreetMap, and digital elevation models SRTM90 and ASTER GDEM v.2 as well. The multiscale GIS database allows us to generate such kind of information with different spatial resolution (200, 500 and 1000 meters).

The WASCAL high-resolution climate projection ensemble for West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunstmann, Harald; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Dieng, Diarra; Smiatek, Gerhard; Bliefernicht, Jan; Hamann, Ilse; Salack, Seyni

2017-04-01

With climate change being one of the most severe challenges to rural Africa in the 21st century, West Africa is facing an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation measures to protect its constantly growing population. We perform ensemble-based regional climate simulations at a high resolution of 12km for West Africa to allow a scientifically sound derivation of climate change adaptation measures. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario, our ensemble consist of three simulation experiments with the Weather Research & Forecasting Tool (WRF) and one additional experiment with the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling Model COSMO in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM). We discuss the model performance over the validation period 1980-2010, including a novel, station-based precipitation database for West Africa obtained within the WASCAL (West African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) program. Particular attention is paid to the representation of the dynamics of the West African Summer Monsoon and to the added value of our high-resolution models over existing data sets. We further present results on the climate change signal obtained for the two future periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 and compare them to current state-of-the-art projections from the CORDEX-Africa project. While the temperature change signal is similar to that obtained within CORDEX-Africa, our simulations predict a wetter future for the Coast of Guinea and the southern Soudano area and a slight drying in the northernmost part of the Sahel.

CosmoTransitions: Computing cosmological phase transition temperatures and bubble profiles with multiple fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wainwright, Carroll L.

2012-09-01

I present a numerical package (CosmoTransitions) for analyzing finite-temperature cosmological phase transitions driven by single or multiple scalar fields. The package analyzes the different vacua of a theory to determine their critical temperatures (where the vacuum energy levels are degenerate), their supercooling temperatures, and the bubble wall profiles which separate the phases and describe their tunneling dynamics. I introduce a new method of path deformation to find the profiles of both thin- and thick-walled bubbles. CosmoTransitions is freely available for public use.Program summaryProgram Title: CosmoTransitionsCatalogue identifier: AEML_v1_0Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEML_v1_0.htmlProgram obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. IrelandLicensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.htmlNo. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 8775No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 621096Distribution format: tar.gzProgramming language: Python.Computer: Developed on a 2009 MacBook Pro. No computer-specific optimization was performed.Operating system: Designed and tested on Mac OS X 10.6.8. Compatible with any OS with Python installed.RAM: Approximately 50 MB, mostly for loading plotting packages.Classification: 1.9, 11.1.External routines: SciPy, NumPy, matplotLibNature of problem: I describe a program to analyze early-Universe finite-temperature phase transitions with multiple scalar fields. The goal is to analyze the phase structure of an input theory, determine the amount of supercooling at each phase transition, and find the bubble-wall profiles of the nucleated bubbles that drive the transitions.Solution method: To find the bubble-wall profile, the program assumes that tunneling happens along a fixed path in field space. This reduces the equations of motion to one dimension, which can then be solved using the overshoot/undershoot method. The path iteratively deforms in the direction opposite the forces perpendicular to the path until the perpendicular forces vanish (or become very small). To find the phase structure, the program finds and integrates the change in a phase's minimum with respect to temperature.Running time: Approximately 1 minute for full analysis of the two-scalar-field test model on a 2.5 GHz CPU.

CosmoQuest - Mapping Surface Features Across the Inner Solar System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grier, Jennifer A.; Richardson, Matthew; Gay, Pamela L.; Lehan, Cory; Owens, Ryan; Robbins, Stuart J.; DellaGiustina, Daniella; Bennett, Carina; Runco, Susan; Graff, Paige

2017-10-01

The CosmoQuest Virtual Research Facility allows research scientists to work together with citizen scientists in ‘big data’ investigations. Some research requires the examination of vast numbers of images - partnering with engaged and trained citizen scientists allows for that research to be completed in a thorough and timely manner. The techniques used by CosmoQuest to collect impact crater data have been validated to ensure robustness (Robbins et al., 2014), and include software tools that accurately identify crater clusters, and multiple crater identifications. CosmoQuest has current or up-and-coming projects that span much of the inner solar system. “Moon Mappers” gives the public a chance to learn about the importance of cratered surfaces, and investigate factors that effect the identification and measurement of impact craters such as incidence angle. In the “Mars Mappers” program citizens map small craters in valley networks. These will be used to estimate times of ancient water flow. In “Mercury Mappers” the public learns about other issues related to crater counting, such as secondaries. On Mercury, secondaries appear to dominate counts up to 10km. By mapping these craters, we will be able to better understand the maximum diameter of secondaries relative to the parent primary. The public encounters Vesta in “Vesta Mappers,” a project that contributes data to the overall crater counting efforts on that body. Asteroid investigations do not end there - the OSIRIS-REx team is collaborating with CosmoQuest to create a science campaign to generate boulder and crater counting datasets of the asteroid Bennu. This “Bennu Mappers” project will inform the final selection of the sample return site. The Earth is the target for the “Image Detective” project, which uses the 2 million images returned from crewed space flight. These images are rich in information about our changing Earth, as well as phenomena like aurora. Citizens tag these images with meta-data such as visible features and the center point location of imagery to enable scientists and the public to more easily search for imagery of interest in NASA’s online database of astronaut imagery of Earth.

Monitoring dam structural health from space: Insights from novel InSAR techniques and multi-parametric modeling applied to the Pertusillo dam Basilicata, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milillo, Pietro; Perissin, Daniele; Salzer, Jacqueline T.; Lundgren, Paul; Lacava, Giusy; Milillo, Giovanni; Serio, Carmine

2016-10-01

The availability of new constellations of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors is leading to important advances in infrastructure monitoring. These constellations offer the advantage of reduced revisit times, providing low-latency data that enable analysis that can identify infrastructure instability and dynamic deformation processes. In this paper we use COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) and TerraSAR-X (TSX) data to monitor seasonal induced deformation at the Pertusillo dam (Basilicata, Italy) using multi-temporal SAR data analysis. We analyzed 198 images spanning 2010-2015 using a coherent and incoherent PS approach to merge COSMO-SkyMed adjacent tracks and TerraSAR-X acquisitions, respectively. We used hydrostatic-seasonal-temporal (HST) and hydrostatic-temperature-temporal (HTT) models to interpret the non-linear deformation at the dam wall using ground measurements together with SAR time-series analysis. Different look geometries allowed us to characterize the horizontal deformation field typically observed at dams. Within the limits of our models and the SAR acquisition sampling we found that most of the deformation at the Pertusillo dam can be explained by taking into account only thermal seasonal dilation and hydrostatic pressure. The different models show slightly different results when interpreting the aging term at the dam wall. The results highlight how short-revisit SAR satellites in combination with models widely used in the literature for interpreting pendulum and GPS data can be used for supporting structural health monitoring and provide valuable information to ground users directly involved in field measurements.

The COSMO-SkyMed ground and ILS and OPS segments upgrades for full civilian capacity exploitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fasano, L.; De Luca, G. F.; Cardone, M.; Loizzo, R.; Sacco, P.; Daraio, M. G.

2015-10-01

COSMO-SkyMed (CSK), is an Earth Observation joint program between Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (Italian Space Agency, ASI) and Italian Ministry of Defense (It-MoD). It consists of a constellation of four X Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) whose first satellite of has been launched on June 2007. Today the full constellation is fully qualified and is in an operative phase. The COSMO-SkyMed System includes 3 Segments: the Space Segment, the Ground Segment and the Integrated Logistic Support and Operations Segment (ILS and OPS) As part of a more complex re-engineering process aimed to improve the expected constellation lifetime, to fully exploit several system capabilities, to manage the obsolescence, to reduce the maintenance costs and to exploit the entire constellation capability for Civilian users a series of activities have been performed. In the next months these activities are planned to be completed and start to be operational so that it will be possible the programming, planning, acquisition, raw processing and archiving of all the images that the constellation can acquire.

The Coronal Solar Magnetism Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomczyk, S.; Landi, E.; Zhang, J.; Lin, H.; DeLuca, E. E.

2015-12-01

Measurements of coronal and chromospheric magnetic fields are arguably the most important observables required for advances in our understanding of the processes responsible for coronal heating, coronal dynamics and the generation of space weather that affects communications, GPS systems, space flight, and power transmission. The Coronal Solar Magnetism Observatory (COSMO) is a proposed ground-based suite of instruments designed for routine study of coronal and chromospheric magnetic fields and their environment, and to understand the formation of coronal mass ejections (CME) and their relation to other forms of solar activity. This new facility will be operated by the High Altitude Observatory of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (HAO/NCAR) with partners at the University of Michigan, the University of Hawaii and George Mason University in support of the solar and heliospheric community. It will replace the current NCAR Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (http://mlso.hao.ucar.edu). COSMO will enhance the value of existing and new observatories on the ground and in space by providing unique and crucial observations of the global coronal and chromospheric magnetic field and its evolution. The design and current status of the COSMO will be reviewed.

CosmoQuest: Measuring Audience Needs to Obtain Better Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buxner, Sanlyn; Bakerman, Maya; Gay, Pamela; Reiheld, Alison; CosmoQuest Team

2018-01-01

The CosmoQuest Virtual Research Facility provides a place for scientists to recruit people to aid in their science projects via citizen science. Just as students need training to be effective researchers, so do citizen scientists, but their needs are different. In this presentation, we present the results of surveys of members of the CosmoQuest community, including both citizen scientists and educators using citizen science in their classrooms. For all members of the community, we investigated the types of projects that respondents enjoyed doing, the level of difficulty they were willing to engage in, and the amount of time they spent doing citizen science projects. We also investigated what other science-related activities respondents were engaged in, other opportunities they were interested in, and what support and resources they needed to be successful in completing projects. For educators, we investigated the types of projects they wanted to engage in with their students, the ideal length of time for citizen science projects to be used in their classrooms, and the resources they needed to be able to engage students in citizen science projects effectively.

Complexation and molecular modeling studies of europium(III)-gallic acid-amino acid complexes.

PubMed

Taha, Mohamed; Khan, Imran; Coutinho, João A P

2016-04-01

With many metal-based drugs extensively used today in the treatment of cancer, attention has focused on the development of new coordination compounds with antitumor activity with europium(III) complexes recently introduced as novel anticancer drugs. The aim of this work is to design new Eu(III) complexes with gallic acid, an antioxida'nt phenolic compound. Gallic acid was chosen because it shows anticancer activity without harming health cells. As antioxidant, it helps to protect human cells against oxidative damage that implicated in DNA damage, cancer, and accelerated cell aging. In this work, the formation of binary and ternary complexes of Eu(III) with gallic acid, primary ligand, and amino acids alanine, leucine, isoleucine, and tryptophan was studied by glass electrode potentiometry in aqueous solution containing 0.1M NaNO3 at (298.2 ± 0.1) K. Their overall stability constants were evaluated and the concentration distributions of the complex species in solution were calculated. The protonation constants of gallic acid and amino acids were also determined at our experimental conditions and compared with those predicted by using conductor-like screening model for realistic solvation (COSMO-RS) model. The geometries of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes were characterized by the density functional theory (DFT). The spectroscopic UV-visible and photoluminescence measurements are carried out to confirm the formation of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes in aqueous solutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of current effect on waves in a semi-enclosed basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benetazzo, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Bergamasco, A.

2012-04-01

The wave-current interaction process in the semi-enclosed Adriatic Sea is studied using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, which is used to exchange data fields between the ocean model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) and the wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). The 2-way data transfer between circulation and wave models is synchronous with ROMS providing current fields, free surface elevation, and bathymetry to SWAN. In particular, the 3-D current profiles are averaged using a formulation that integrates the near-surface velocity over a depth controlled by the spectral mean wave number. This coupling procedure is carried out up to coastal areas by means of an offline grid nesting. The parent grid covers the whole Adriatic Sea and has a horizontal resolution of 2.0 km, whereas the child grid resolution increases to 0.5 km but it is limited to the northern Adriatic Sea (Gulf of Venice), where the current effect on waves is investigated. The most frequent winds blowing on the Adriatic Sea are the so-called Bora and Sirocco which cause high waves in the Adriatic Sea, although Bora waves are generally fetch-limited. In fact, Bora winds blow orthogonal to the main basin axis (approximately aligned with the NW-SE direction), while Sirocco has large spatial scale being a southeasterly wind. For the numerical simulations, the meteorological forcings are provided by the operational meteorological model COSMO-I7, which is the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium. During the analysis period, the simulated wind, current and wave are compared with observations at the ISMAR oceanographic tower located off the Venice littoral. Wave heights and sea surface winds are also compared with satellite-derived data. To account for the variability of sea states during a storm, the expected maximum individual wave height in a sea storm with a given history is also considered. During intense storms, the effect of coupling on wave heights is resulting in variations of the wave heights up to 15%, with some areas experiencing increase or decrease of wave spectral energy for opposite and following currents respectively. The study is part of the activities developed in the European Union (EU) funded FIELD_AC project (Fluxes, Interactions and Environment at the Land-ocean boundary. Downscaling, Assimilation and Coupling), which is conceived with the goal to better identify the most significant natural processes in coastal areas, and to address their impact on the coastal and nearshore dynamics by including them in a complete numerical prediction suite.

Salting-out effect in aqueous NaCl solutions: trends with size and polarity of solute molecules.

PubMed

Endo, Satoshi; Pfennigsdorff, Andrea; Goss, Kai-Uwe

2012-02-07

Salting-out in aqueous NaCl solutions is relevant for the environmental behavior of organic contaminants. In this study, Setschenow (or salting-out) coefficients (K(s) [M(-1)]) for 43 diverse neutral compounds in NaCl solutions were measured using a shared headspace passive dosing method and a negligible depletion solid phase microextraction technique. The results were used to calibrate and evaluate estimation models for K(s). The molar volume of the solute correlated only moderately with K(s) (R(2) = 0.49, SD = 0.052). The polyparameter linear free energy relationship (pp-LFER) model that uses five compound descriptors resulted in a more accurate fit to our data (R(2) = 0.83, SD = 0.031). The pp-LFER analysis revealed that Na(+) and Cl(-) in aqueous solutions increase the cavity formation energy cost and the polar interaction energies toward neutral organic solutes. Accordingly, the salting-out effect increases with the size and decreases with the polarity of the solute molecule. COSMO-RS, a quantum mechanics-based fully predictive model, generally overpredicted the experimental K(s), but the predicted values were moderately correlated with the experimental values (R(2) = 0.66, SD = 0.042). Literature data (n = 93) were predicted by the calibrated pp-LFER and COSMO-RS models with root mean squared errors of 0.047 and 0.050, respectively. This study offers prediction models to estimate K(s), allowing implementation of the salting-out effect in contaminant fate models, linkage of various partition coefficients (such as air-water, sediment-water, and extraction phase-water partition coefficients) measured for fresh water and seawater, and estimation of enhancement of extraction efficiency in analytical procedures.

CosmoQuest: Training Students, Teachers and the Public to do NASA Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buxner, S.; Bracey, G.; Noel-Storr, J.; Murph, S.; Francis, M. R.; Strishock, L.; Cobb, W. H.; Lebofsky, L. A.; Jones, A. P.; Finkelstein, K.; Gay, P.

2016-12-01

Engaging individuals in science who have not been formally trained as research scientists can both capture a wider audiences in the process of science as well as crowdsource data analysis that gets more science done. CosmoQuest is a virtual research facility that leverages these benefits through citizen science projects that has community members to analyze NASA data that contributes to publishable science results. This is accomplished through an inviting experience that recruits members of the public (including students), meets their needs and motivations, and provides them the education they want so they can to be contributing members of the community. Each research project in CosmoQuest presents new training opportunities that are designed to meet the personal needs of the engaged individuals, while also leading to the production of high-quality data that meets the needs of the research teams. These educational opportunities extend into classrooms, where both teachers and students engage in analysis. Training for teachers is done through in-person and online professional development, and through conference workshops for both scientists and educators. Curricular products are available to support students' understanding of citizen science and how to engage in CosmoQuest projects. Professional development for all audiences is done through online tutorials and courses, with social media support. Our goal is to instill expertise in individuals not formally trained as research scientists. This allows them to work with and provide genuine scientific support to practicing experts in a community that benefits all stakeholders. Training focuses on increasing and supporting individuals' core content knowledge as well as building the specific skills necessary to engage in each project. These skills and knowledge are aligned with the 3-dimensional learning of the Next Generation Science Standards, and support lifelong learning opportunities for those in and out of school.

CosmoQuest: Better Citizen Science Through Education

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gay, P. L.; Lehan, C.; Bracey, G.; Yamani, A.; Francis, M.; Durrell, P.; Spivey, C.; Noel-Storr, J.; Buxner, S.; Cobb, W.;

Inter-comparison of hydrological model simulations with dense time series of SAR-derived soil moisture maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iacobellis, V.; Gioia, A.; Milella, P.; Satalino, G.; Balenzano, A.; Mattia, F.

2012-04-01

Over the last years, a vast number of experimental and theoretical studies has widely demonstrated the sensitivity of SAR data to soil moisture content, however, operational services integrating SAR measurements into land process models are not yet available. Important progresses in this field are expected, on the one hand, from SAR missions characterized by a short revisiting time, such as the COSMO-SkyMed or the forthcoming Sentinel-1 and ALOS-2 missions, on the other hand, from a strong effort in implementing hydrological models able to reproduce the dynamic of soil moisture content of the top layer (5 cm depth) of soil. With this latter purpose, we used the DREAM model [Manfreda et al., 2005], realized in a GIS-based approach, that explicitly takes into account the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes. The DREAM model carries out continuous hydrological simulations using the daily and the hourly scales. The distinctive feature of the model, which consists of evaluating the lateral flow through a water content redistribution weighted by the topographic index, was preserved. The latter provided the basis for the nested implementation of the Richard equation which has been used for evaluating vertical flows in the top soil layer (5cm).The Richard routine exploits the numerical solution proposed by Simunek et al. [2009] and runs, for each cell of the river basin, in a sub-module of 60 minutes with a vertical (i.e. depth) and temporal resolution of 1 cm and 1 s, respectively. The model was applied to the portion of the Celone at Foggia San Severo river basin downstream the San Giusto Dam, which is a tributary of the Candelaro river, in Puglia region (Southern Italy). Over this area quasi-dense time series of ALOS/PALSAR ScanSAR WB1 and COSMO-SkyMedStripMap images were acquired in 2007 and 2010, respectively. The SAR data have been used to derive time-series of soil moisture maps by means of the SMOSAR software developed for Sentinel-1 data [Balenzano et al., 2011; Mattia et al., 2011; Balenzano et al., 2012] and adapted to the X- [Mattia et al., 2012] and L-band [Satalino et al., 2010]. First results are promising, showing that the model is able to reproduce the general trend and has a good sensitivity to rainfall inputs. Such a kind of results open wide perspectives for model calibration/validation with external data as well as for assessing the proposed modelling structure, providing strong enhancements in terms of model scientific validation [e.g. Biondi et al. 2011]. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The research in this paper is supported by the Italian Space Agency under contract n. I/051/09/0. COSMO-SkyMed data were provided by ©ASI in the framework of ©CSK AO 2161,PALSAR data were supplied in the framework of JAXA RA 13 & ESA ALOS ADEN AO 3597.

Structure of dimethylphenyl betaine hydrochloride studied by X-ray diffraction, DFT calculation, NMR and FTIR spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szafran, M.; Katrusiak, A.; Dega-Szafran, Z.; Kowalczyk, I.

2013-01-01

The structure of dimethylphenyl betaine hydrochloride (1) has been studied by X-ray diffraction, DFT calculations, NMR and FTIR spectra. The crystals are monoclinic, space group P21/c. In the crystal, the Cl- anion is connected with protonated betaine through the O-H⋯Cl- hydrogen bond of 2.943(2) Å. The structures in the gas phase (2) and water solution (3) have been optimized by the B3LYP/6-311++G(d,p) approach and the geometrical results have been compared with the X-ray data of 1. The FTIR spectrum of the solid compound is consistent with the X-ray results. The probable assignments of the anharmonic experimental vibrational frequencies of the investigated chloride (1) based on the calculated harmonic frequencies in water solution (3) are proposed. The correlations between the experimental 1H and 13C NMR chemical shifts (δexp) of 1 in D2O and the magnetic isotropic shielding constants (σcalc) calculated by the GIAO/B3LYP/6-311G++(d,p) approach, using the screening solvation model (COSMO), δexp = a + b σcalc, for optimized molecule 3 in water solution are linear and correctly reproduce the experimental chemical shifts.

Solvent Dependence of Double Proton Transfer in the Formic Acid-Formamidine Complex: Path Integral Molecular Dynamics Investigation.

PubMed

Kungwan, Nawee; Ngaojampa, Chanisorn; Ogata, Yudai; Kawatsu, Tsutomu; Oba, Yuki; Kawashima, Yukio; Tachikawa, Masanori

2017-10-05

Solvent dependence of double proton transfer in the formic acid-formamidine (FA-FN) complex at room temperature was investigated by means of ab initio path integral molecular dynamics (AIPIMD) simulation with taking nuclear quantum and thermal effects into account. The conductor-like screening model (COSMO) was applied for solvent effect. In comparison with gas phase, double proton delocalization between two heavy atoms (O and N) in FA-FN were observed with reduced proton transfer barrier height in low dielectric constant medium (<4.8). For dielectric constant medium at 4.8, the chance of finding these two protons are more pronounced due to the solvent effect which completely washes out the proton transfer barrier. In the case of higher dielectric constant medium (>4.8), the ionic species becomes more stable than the neutral ones and the formate anion and formamidium cation are thermodynamically stable. For ab initio molecular dynamics simulation, in low dielectric constant medium (<4.8) a reduction of proton transfer barrier with solvent effect is found to be less pronounced than the AIPIMD due to the absence of nuclear quantum effect. Moreover, the motions of FA-FN complex are significantly different with increasing dielectric constant medium. Such a difference is revealed in detail by the principal component analysis.

Catching TFSI: A Computational-Experimental Approach to β-Cyclodextrin-Based Host-Guest Systems as electrolytes for Li-Ion Batteries.

PubMed

Jeschke, Steffen; Jankowski, Piotr; Best, Adam S; Johansson, Patrik

2018-03-12

Cyclodextrins (CDs) are pyranoside-based macromolecules with a hydrophobic cavity to encapsulate small molecules. They are used as molecular vehicles, for instance in pharmaceutical drug delivery or as solubility enhancer of monomers for their polymerization in aqueous solution. In this context, it was discovered about 10 years ago that the bis(trifluoromethylsulonyl)imide (TFSI) anion forms host-guest complexes with βCD in aqueous media. This sparked interest in using the TFSI anion in lithium-based battery electrolytes open for its encapsulation by βCD as an attractive approach to increase the contribution of the cation to the total ion conductivity. By using semi-empirical quantum mechanical (SQM) methods and the conductor-like screening model for a real solvent (COSMO-RS), a randomly methylated βCD (RMβCD) is here identified as a suitable host for TFSI when using organic solvents often used in battery technology. By combining molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with different NMR and FTIR experiments, the formation of the corresponding RMβCD-TFSI complex was investigated. Finally, the effects of the addition RMβCD to a set of electrolytes on the ion conductivity are measured and explained using three distinct scenarios. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Theoretical investigation on the microstructure of triethylene glycol based deep eutectic solvents: COSMO-RS and TURBOMOLE prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aissaoui, Tayeb; Benguerba, Yacine; AlNashef, Inas M.

2017-08-01

The in-silico combination mechanism of triethylene glycol based DESs has been studied. COSMO-RS and graphical user interface TmoleX software were used to predict the interaction mechanism of hydrogen bond donors (HBDs) with hydrogen bond acceptors (HBA) to form DESs. The predicted IR results were compared with the previously reported experimental FT-IR analysis for the same studied DESs. The sigma profiles for the HBD, HBAs and formed DESs were interpreted to identify qualitatively molecular properties like polarity or hydrogen bonding donor and acceptor abilities. The predicted physicochemical properties reported in this study were in good agreement with experimental ones.

PSP SAR interferometry monitoring of ground and structure deformations in the archeological site of Pompeii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costantini, Mario; Francioni, Elena; Paglia, Luca; Minati, Federico; Margottini, Claudio; Spizzichino, Daniele; Trigila, Alessandro; Iadanza, Carla; De Nigris, Bruno

2016-04-01

The "Major Project Pompeii" (MPP) is a great collective commitment of different institututions and people to set about solving the serious problem of conservation of the largest archeological sites in the world. The ancient city of Pompeii with its 66 hectares, 44 of which are excaveted, is divided into 9 regiones (district), subdivided in 118 insulae (blocks) and almost 1500 domus (houses), and is Unesco site since 1996. The Italian Ministry for Heritage and Cultural Activities and Tourism (MiBACT) and Finmeccanica Group have sealed an agreement whereby the Finmeccanica Group will donate innovative technologies and services for monitoring and protecting the archaeological site of Pompeii. Moreover, the Italian Institute for Environment Protection and Research (ISPRA) - Geological Survey of Italy, was also involved to support the ground based analysis and interpretation of the measurements provided by the industrial team, in order to promote an interdisciplinary approach. In this work, we will focus on ground deformation measurements obtained by satellite SAR interferometry and on their interpretation. The satellite monitoring service is based on the processing of COSMO-SkyMed Himage data by the e-Geos proprietary Persistent Scatterer Pair (PSP) SAR interferometry technology. The PSP technique is a proven SAR interferometry method characterized by the fact of exploiting in the processing only the relative properties between close points (pairs) in order to overcome atmospheric artifacts (which are one of the main problems of SAR interferometry). Validations analyses showed that this technique applied to COSMO-SkyMed Himage data is able to retrieve very dense (except of course on vegetated or cultivated areas) millimetric deformation measurements with sub-metric localization. By means of the COSMO-SkyMed PSP SAR interferometry processing, a historical analysis of the ground and structure deformations occurred over the entire archaeological site of Pompeii in the period from 2010 to 2014 was initially performed. Moreover, the deformation monitoring is continuing with monthly updates of the PSP analysis with new COSMO-SkyMed acquisitions both in ascending and descending geometry. The first results of the preliminary analysis over the archaeological site of Pompeii did not show large areas affected by deformations. However, the COSMO-SkyMed PSP SAR interferometry analysis proved to be very efficient due to its capability of providing a large number of deformation measurements over the archaeological site and structures with relatively small impact and cost. Moreover, in areas affected by collapses in the recent past, deformations were detected. Recent instability processes, both for the unexcavated slopes and for the archaeological structures, have promoted this low-impact analysis, aimed at identifying deformation paths and to prevent sudden collapses. Finally, the results obtained from the satellite techniques, will be also used to implement and improve the ground based geotechnical monitoring and warning system recently installed in selected case studies. Cross analysis between interferometric results, meteorological data and historical data of the site (e.g. collapses, works, etc.) are in progress in order to define provisional model aiming at an early identification of areas subjected to potential instability.

Solvent effects in time-dependent self-consistent field methods. I. Optical response calculations

DOE PAGES

Bjorgaard, J. A.; Kuzmenko, V.; Velizhanin, K. A.; ...

2015-01-22

In this study, we implement and examine three excited state solvent models in time-dependent self-consistent field methods using a consistent formalism which unambiguously shows their relationship. These are the linear response, state specific, and vertical excitation solvent models. Their effects on energies calculated with the equivalent of COSMO/CIS/AM1 are given for a set of test molecules with varying excited state charge transfer character. The resulting solvent effects are explained qualitatively using a dipole approximation. It is shown that the fundamental differences between these solvent models are reflected by the character of the calculated excitations.

Motion of David Glacier in East Antarctica Observed by COSMO-SkyMed Differential SAR Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, H.; Lee, H.

2011-12-01

David glacier, located in Victoria Land, East Antarctica (75°20'S, 161°15'E), is an outlet glacier of 13 km width near the grounding line and 50 km long from the source to the grounding line. David glacier flows into Ross Sea forming Drygalski Ice Tongue, 100 km long and 23 km wide. In this study, we extracted a surface displacement map of David by applying differential SAR interferometry (DInSAR) to one-day tandem pairs obtained from COSMO-SkyMed satellites on April 28-29 (descending orbit) and May 5-6 (ascending orbit), 2011, respectively. Terra ASTER global digital elevation model (GDEM) is used to remove the topographic effect from the COSMO-SkyMed interferograms. David glacier showed maximum displacement of 35 cm during April 28-29 and 20 cm during May 5-6 in the direction of radar line of sight. The glacier can be divided into several blocks by the disparities of displacement between the different sliding zone. Surface displacement map contains errors originated from orbit data, atmospheric conditions, DEM error. GDEM is generated from the ASTER optical images acquired from 2000 to 2008. It has the vertical accuracy of about 20 m at 95% confidence with the 30 m of horizontal posting. The accuracy of GDEM reduces when cloud cover is included in the ASTER image. Particularly in the snow and ice area, GDEM is inaccurate due to whiteout effect during stereo matching. The inaccuracy of GDEM could be a reason of the observed glacier motion in the opposite direction of gravity. This problem can be solved by using TanDEM-X DEM. Bistatic acquisition of SAR images from the constellation of TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X will generate a global DEM with the vertical accuracy better than 2 m and the horizontal posting of 12 m. We plan to perform DInSAR of COSMO-SkyMed one-day tandem pairs again when the high-accuracy TanDEM-X DEM is available in the near future. As a conclusion, we could analyze the displacement of David glacier in East Antarctica. The glacier showed very fast motion forming a block of streamlines with different flow velocity. For more accurate analysis, we will use TanDEM-X DEM to perform the DInSAR. The flow characteristics, ice mass balance, ice discharge rate of David glacier remains as an ongoing research.

Studies regarding the quality of numerical weather forecasts of the WRF model integrated at high-resolutions for the Romanian territory

DOE PAGES

Iriza, Amalia; Dumitrache, Rodica C.; Lupascu, Aurelia; ...

2016-01-01

Our paper aims to evaluate the quality of high-resolution weather forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. The lateral and boundary conditions were obtained from the numerical output of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model at 7 km horizontal resolution. Furthermore, the WRF model was run for January and July 2013 at two horizontal resolutions (3 and 1 km). The numerical forecasts of the WRF model were evaluated using different statistical scores for 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed. Our results showed a tendency of the WRF model to overestimate the valuesmore » of the analyzed parameters in comparison to observations.« less

Studies regarding the quality of numerical weather forecasts of the WRF model integrated at high-resolutions for the Romanian territory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iriza, Amalia; Dumitrache, Rodica C.; Lupascu, Aurelia

Our paper aims to evaluate the quality of high-resolution weather forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model. The lateral and boundary conditions were obtained from the numerical output of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model at 7 km horizontal resolution. Furthermore, the WRF model was run for January and July 2013 at two horizontal resolutions (3 and 1 km). The numerical forecasts of the WRF model were evaluated using different statistical scores for 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed. Our results showed a tendency of the WRF model to overestimate the valuesmore » of the analyzed parameters in comparison to observations.« less

The benefit of limb cloud imaging for tropospheric infrared limb sounding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, S.; Spang, R.; Preusse, P.; Heinemann, G.

2009-03-01

Advances in detector technology enable a new generation of infrared limb sounders to measure 2-D images of the atmosphere. A proposed limb cloud imager (LCI) mode will measure clouds with very high spatial resolution. For the inference of temperature and trace gas distributions, detector pixels of the LCI have to be combined into super-pixels which provide the required signal-to-noise ratio and information content for the retrievals. This study examines the extent to which tropospheric coverage can be improved in comparison to limb sounding using a fixed field of view with the size of the super-pixels, as in conventional limb sounders. The study is based on cloud topographies derived from (a) IR brightness temperatures (BT) of geostationary weather satellites in conjunction with ECMWF temperature profiles and (b) ice and liquid water content data of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling-Europe (COSMO-EU) of the German Weather Service. Limb cloud images are simulated by matching the cloud topography with the limb sounding line of sight (LOS). The analysis of the BT data shows that the reduction of the spatial sampling along the track has hardly any effect on the gain in information. The comparison between BT and COSMO-EU data identifies the strength of both data sets, which are the representation of the horizontal cloud extent for the BT data and the reproduction of the cloud amount for the COSMO-EU data. The results of the analysis of both data sets show the great advantage of the cloud imager. However, because both cloud data sets do not present the complete fine structure of the real cloud fields in the atmosphere it is assumed that the results tend to underestimate the increase in information. In conclusion, real measurements by such an instrument may result in an even higher benefit for tropospheric limb retrievals.

The benefit of limb cloud imaging for infrared limb sounding of tropospheric trace gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, S.; Spang, R.; Preusse, P.; Heinemann, G.

2009-06-01

Advances in detector technology enable a new generation of infrared limb sounders to measure 2-D images of the atmosphere. A proposed limb cloud imager (LCI) mode will detect clouds with a spatial resolution unprecedented for limb sounding. For the inference of temperature and trace gas distributions, detector pixels of the LCI have to be combined into super-pixels which provide the required signal-to-noise and information content for the retrievals. This study examines the extent to which tropospheric coverage can be improved in comparison to limb sounding using a fixed field of view with the size of the super-pixels, as in conventional limb sounders. The study is based on cloud topographies derived from (a) IR brightness temperatures (BT) of geostationary weather satellites in conjunction with ECMWF temperature profiles and (b) ice and liquid water content data of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling-Europe (COSMO-EU) of the German Weather Service. Limb cloud images are simulated by matching the cloud topography with the limb sounding line of sight (LOS). The analysis of the BT data shows that the reduction of the spatial sampling along the track has hardly any effect on the gain in information. The comparison between BT and COSMO-EU data identifies the strength of both data sets, which are the representation of the horizontal cloud extent for the BT data and the reproduction of the cloud amount for the COSMO-EU data. The results of the analysis of both data sets show the great advantage of the cloud imager. However, because both cloud data sets do not present the complete fine structure of the real cloud fields in the atmosphere it is assumed that the results tend to underestimate the increase in information. In conclusion, real measurements by such an instrument may result in an even higher benefit for tropospheric limb retrievals.

CosmoQuest: A Cyber-Infrastructure for Crowdsourcing Planetary Surface Mapping and More

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gay, P.; Lehan, C.; Moore, J.; Bracey, G.; Gugliucci, N.

2014-04-01

The design and implementation of programs to crowdsource science presents a unique set of challenges to system architects, programmers, and designers. The CosmoQuest Citizen Science Builder (CSB) is an open source platform designed to take advantage of crowd computing and open source platforms to solve crowdsourcing problems in Planetary Science. CSB combines a clean user interface with a powerful back end to allow the quick design and deployment of citizen science sites that meet the needs of both the random Joe Public, and the detail driven Albert Professional. In this talk, the software will be overviewed, and the results of usability testing and accuracy testing with both citizen and professional scientists will be discussed.

The scatter and evolution of the global hot gas properties of simulated galaxy cluster populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Brun, Amandine M. C.; McCarthy, Ian G.; Schaye, Joop; Ponman, Trevor J.

2017-04-01

We use the cosmo-OverWhelmingly Large Simulation (cosmo-OWLS) suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to investigate the scatter and evolution of the global hot gas properties of large simulated populations of galaxy groups and clusters. Our aim is to compare the predictions of different physical models and to explore the extent to which commonly adopted assumptions in observational analyses (e.g. self-similar evolution) are violated. We examine the relations between (true) halo mass and the X-ray temperature, X-ray luminosity, gas mass, Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) flux, the X-ray analogue of the SZ flux (YX) and the hydrostatic mass. For the most realistic models, which include active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback, the slopes of the various mass-observable relations deviate substantially from the self-similar ones, particularly at late times and for low-mass clusters. The amplitude of the mass-temperature relation shows negative evolution with respect to the self-similar prediction (I.e. slower than the prediction) for all models, driven by an increase in non-thermal pressure support at higher redshifts. The AGN models predict strong positive evolution of the gas mass fractions at low halo masses. The SZ flux and YX show positive evolution with respect to self-similarity at low mass but negative evolution at high mass. The scatter about the relations is well approximated by log-normal distributions, with widths that depend mildly on halo mass. The scatter decreases significantly with increasing redshift. The exception is the hydrostatic mass-halo mass relation, for which the scatter increases with redshift. Finally, we discuss the relative merits of various hot gas-based mass proxies.

Land-atmosphere coupling strength determines impact of land cover change in South-East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toelle, M. H.

2017-12-01

In a previous modeling study of large-scale deforestation in South-East Asia, between 20° S and 20° N, a decrease of latent heat flux and an increase of sensible heat flux is found. This induced higher temperatures, and ultimately deepened the boundary layer with leading to less rainfall, but higher rainfall amounts and extreme temperatures. In order to attribute these differences to a feedback mechanism, a correlation analysis is performed. Therefore, the land-atmosphere coupling strength is compared with the impact of land cover change during seasonal periods and ENSO events. Hereby, ERA-Interim-driven COSMO-CLM simulations are analyzed for the period 1990 to 2004. The regional climate model is able to reproduce the overall soil moisture spatial pattern suggested by the observational Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model. However, COSMO-CLM shows more spatial variability and strength. By deforestation, the coupling strength between land and atmosphere is increased. Major changes in coupling strength occur during La Niña events. The impact due to deforestation depends non-linearly on the coupling strength exemplified by maximum temperature and evapotranspiration. It is shown that the magnitude of change in extreme temperature due to deforestation depends on the former coupling strength over the region. The rise in extreme temperatures due to deforestation occurs mainly over the mainland, where the coupling strength is strongest. The impact is less pronounced over the maritime islands due to the oceanic influence. It is suggested that the regional-scale impact depends on the model-specific coupling strength besides the physical reasoning over this region. Deforestation over South-East Asia will likely have consequences for the agricultural output and increase socio-economic vulnerability.

An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): assessing the added value of probabilistic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, N.; Jaun, S.; Fundel, F.; Zappa, M.

2012-04-01

The Sihl River flows through Zurich, Switzerland's most populated city, for which it represents the largest flood threat. To anticipate extreme discharge events and provide decision support in case of flood risk, a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) was launched operationally in 2008. This model chain relies on deterministic (COSMO-7) and probabilistic (COSMO-LEPS) atmospheric forecasts, which are used to force a semi-distributed hydrological model (PREVAH) coupled to a hydraulic model (FLORIS). The resulting hydrological forecasts are eventually communicated to the stakeholders involved in the Sihl discharge management. This fully operational setting provides a real framework with which we assessed the potential of deterministic and probabilistic discharge forecasts for flood mitigation. To study the suitability of HEPS for small-scale basins and to quantify the added value conveyed by the probability information, a 31-month reforecast was produced for the Sihl catchment (336 km2). Several metrics support the conclusion that the performance gain is of up to 2 days lead time for the catchment considered. Brier skill scores show that probabilistic hydrological forecasts outperform their deterministic counterparts for all the lead times and event intensities considered. The small size of the Sihl catchment does not prevent skillful discharge forecasts, but makes them particularly dependent on correct precipitation forecasts. Our evaluation stresses that the capacity of the model to provide confident and reliable mid-term probability forecasts for high discharges is limited. We finally highlight challenges for making decisions on the basis of hydrological predictions, and discuss the need for a tool to be used in addition to forecasts to compare the different mitigation actions possible in the Sihl catchment.

COSMO-SkyMed and GIS applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milillo, Pietro; Sole, Aurelia; Serio, Carmine

2013-04-01

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing have become key technology tools for the collection, storage and analysis of spatially referenced data. Industries that utilise these spatial technologies include agriculture, forestry, mining, market research as well as the environmental analysis . Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is a coherent active sensor operating in the microwave band which exploits relative motion between antenna and target in order to obtain a finer spatial resolution in the flight direction exploiting the Doppler effect. SAR have wide applications in Remote Sensing such as cartography, surface deformation detection, forest cover mapping, urban planning, disasters monitoring , surveillance etc… The utilization of satellite remote sensing and GIS technology for this applications has proven to be a powerful and effective tool for environmental monitoring. Remote sensing techniques are often less costly and time-consuming for large geographic areas compared to conventional methods, moreover GIS technology provides a flexible environment for, analyzing and displaying digital data from various sources necessary for classification, change detection and database development. The aim of this work si to illustrate the potential of COSMO-SkyMed data and SAR applications in a GIS environment, in particular a demostration of the operational use of COSMO-SkyMed SAR data and GIS in real cases will be provided for what concern DEM validation, river basin estimation, flood mapping and landslide monitoring.

Interactions of ionic liquids and acetone: thermodynamic properties, quantum-chemical calculations, and NMR analysis.

PubMed

Ruiz, Elia; Ferro, Victor R; Palomar, Jose; Ortega, Juan; Rodriguez, Juan Jose

2013-06-20

The interactions between ionic liquids (ILs) and acetone have been studied to obtain a further understanding of the behavior of their mixtures, which generally give place to an exothermic process, mutual miscibility, and negative deviation of Raoult's law. COSMO-RS was used as a suitable computational method to systematically analyze the excess enthalpy of IL-acetone systems (>300), in terms of the intermolecular interactions contributing to the mixture behavior. Spectroscopic and COSMO-RS results indicated that acetone, as a polar compound with strong hydrogen bond acceptor character, in most cases, establishes favorable hydrogen bonding with ILs. This interaction is strengthened by the presence of an acidic cation and an anion with dispersed charge and non-HB acceptor character in the IL. COSMO-RS predictions indicated that gas-liquid and vapor-liquid equilibrium data for IL-acetone systems can be finely tuned by the IL selection, that is, acting on the intermolecular interactions between the molecular and ionic species in the liquid phase. NMR measurements for IL-acetone mixtures at different concentrations were also carried out. Quantum-chemical calculations by using molecular clusters of acetone and IL species were finally performed. These results provided additional evidence of the main role played by hydrogen bonding in the behavior of systems containing ILs and HB acceptor compounds, such as acetone.

Nowcasting of deep convective clouds and heavy precipitation: Comparison study between NWP model simulation and extrapolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bližňák, Vojtěch; Sokol, Zbyněk; Zacharov, Petr

2017-02-01

An evaluation of convective cloud forecasts performed with the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model COSMO and extrapolation of cloud fields is presented using observed data derived from the geostationary satellite Meteosat Second Generation (MSG). The present study focuses on the nowcasting range (1-5 h) for five severe convective storms in their developing stage that occurred during the warm season in the years 2012-2013. Radar reflectivity and extrapolated radar reflectivity data were assimilated for at least 6 h depending on the time of occurrence of convection. Synthetic satellite imageries were calculated using radiative transfer model RTTOV v10.2, which was implemented into the COSMO model. NWP model simulations of IR10.8 μm and WV06.2 μm brightness temperatures (BTs) with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km were interpolated into the satellite projection and objectively verified against observations using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CORR) and Fractions Skill Score (FSS) values. Naturally, the extrapolation of cloud fields yielded an approximately 25% lower RMSE, 20% higher CORR and 15% higher FSS at the beginning of the second forecasted hour compared to the NWP model forecasts. On the other hand, comparable scores were observed for the third hour, whereas the NWP forecasts outperformed the extrapolation by 10% for RMSE, 15% for CORR and up to 15% for FSS during the fourth forecasted hour and 15% for RMSE, 27% for CORR and up to 15% for FSS during the fifth forecasted hour. The analysis was completed by a verification of the precipitation forecasts yielding approximately 8% higher RMSE, 15% higher CORR and up to 45% higher FSS when the NWP model simulation is used compared to the extrapolation for the first hour. Both the methods yielded unsatisfactory level of precipitation forecast accuracy from the fourth forecasted hour onward.

The forecaster's added value in QPF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

2010-03-01

To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this question: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast. Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) in terms of an areal average and maximum value for each of the 13 warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS (Global Telecommunication System) network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from the meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the skill scores of two competitive forecasts. It is important to underline that the conclusions refer to the analysis of the Piemonte operational alert system, so they cannot be directly taken as universally true. But we think that some of the main lessons that can be derived from this study could be useful for the meteorological community. In details, the main conclusions are the following: - despite the overall improvement in global scale and the fact that the resolution of the limited area models has increased considerably over recent years, the QPF produced by the meteorological models involved in this study has not improved enough to allow its direct use: the subjective HQPF continues to offer the best performance for the period +24 h/+48 h (i.e. the warning period in the Piemonte system); - in the forecast process, the step where humans have the largest added value with respect to mathematical models, is the communication. In fact the human characterization and communication of the forecast uncertainty to end users cannot be replaced by any computer code; - eventually, although there is no novelty in this study, we would like to show that the correct application of appropriated statistical techniques permits a better definition and quantification of the errors and, mostly important, allows a correct (unbiased) communication between forecasters and decision makers.

An approach for flood monitoring by the combined use of Landsat 8 optical imagery and COSMO-SkyMed radar imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Xiaohua; Luo, Xin; Liu, Shuguang; Xie, Huan; Chao, Wei; Liu, Shuang; Liu, Shijie; Makhinov, A. N.; Makhinova, A. F.; Jiang, Yuying

2018-02-01

Remote sensing techniques offer potential for effective flood detection with the advantages of low-cost, large-scale, and real-time surface observations. The easily accessible data sources of optical remote sensing imagery provide abundant spectral information for accurate surface water body extraction, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) systems represent a powerful tool for flood monitoring because of their all-weather capability. This paper introduces a new approach for flood monitoring by the combined use of both Landsat 8 optical imagery and COSMO-SkyMed radar imagery. Specifically, the proposed method applies support vector machine and the active contour without edges model for water extent determination in the periods before and during the flood, respectively. A map difference method is used for the flood inundation analysis. The proposed approach is particularly suitable for large-scale flood monitoring, and it was tested on a serious flood that occurred in northeastern China in August 2013, which caused immense loss of human lives and properties. High overall accuracies of 97.46% for the optical imagery and 93.70% for the radar imagery are achieved by the use of the techniques presented in this study. The results show that about 12% of the whole study area was inundated, corresponding to 5466 km2 of land surface.

Effects of temperature on flood forecasting: analysis of an operative case study in Alpine basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceppi, A.; Ravazzani, G.; Salandin, A.; Rabuffetti, D.; Montani, A.; Borgonovo, E.; Mancini, M.

2013-04-01

In recent years the interest in the forecast and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modelling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) for hydrological purposes. After the encouraging results obtained in the MAP D-PHASE Project, we decided to devote further analyses to show recent improvements in the operational use of hydro-meteorological chains, and above all to better investigate the key role played by temperature during snowy precipitation. In this study we present a reanalysis simulation of one meteorological event, which occurred in November 2008 in the Piedmont Region. The attention is focused on the key role of air temperature, which is a crucial feature in determining the partitioning of precipitation in solid and liquid phase, influencing the quantitative discharge forecast (QDF) into the Alpine region. This is linked to the basin ipsographic curve and therefore by the total contributing area related to the snow line of the event. In order to assess hydrological predictions affected by meteorological forcing, a sensitivity analysis of the model output was carried out to evaluate different simulation scenarios, considering the forecast effects which can radically modify the discharge forecast. Results show how in real-time systems hydrological forecasters have to consider also the temperature uncertainty in forecasts in order to better understand the snow dynamics and its effect on runoff during a meteorological warning with a crucial snow line over the basin. The hydrological ensemble forecasts are based on the 16 members of the meteorological ensemble system COSMO-LEPS (developed by ARPA-SIMC) based on the non-hydrostatic model COSMO, while the hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano.

Exploring the calibration of a wind forecast ensemble for energy applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heppelmann, Tobias; Ben Bouallegue, Zied; Theis, Susanne

2015-04-01

In the German research project EWeLiNE, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES) are collaborating with three German Transmission System Operators (TSO) in order to provide the TSOs with improved probabilistic power forecasts. Probabilistic power forecasts are derived from probabilistic weather forecasts, themselves derived from ensemble prediction systems (EPS). Since the considered raw ensemble wind forecasts suffer from underdispersiveness and bias, calibration methods are developed for the correction of the model bias and the ensemble spread bias. The overall aim is to improve the ensemble forecasts such that the uncertainty of the possible weather deployment is depicted by the ensemble spread from the first forecast hours. Additionally, the ensemble members after calibration should remain physically consistent scenarios. We focus on probabilistic hourly wind forecasts with horizon of 21 h delivered by the convection permitting high-resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS which has become operational in 2012 at DWD. The ensemble consists of 20 ensemble members driven by four different global models. The model area includes whole Germany and parts of Central Europe with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical resolution of 50 model levels. For verification we use wind mast measurements around 100 m height that corresponds to the hub height of wind energy plants that belong to wind farms within the model area. Calibration of the ensemble forecasts can be performed by different statistical methods applied to the raw ensemble output. Here, we explore local bivariate Ensemble Model Output Statistics at individual sites and quantile regression with different predictors. Applying different methods, we already show an improvement of ensemble wind forecasts from COSMO-DE-EPS for energy applications. In addition, an ensemble copula coupling approach transfers the time-dependencies of the raw ensemble to the calibrated ensemble. The calibrated wind forecasts are evaluated first with univariate probabilistic scores and additionally with diagnostics of wind ramps in order to assess the time-consistency of the calibrated ensemble members.

Balloon-borne match measurements of mid-latitude cirrus clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cirisan, A.; Luo, B. P.; Engel, I.; Wienhold, F. G.; Krieger, U. K.; Weers, U.; Romanens, G.; Levrat, G.; Jeannet, P.; Ruffieux, D.; Philipona, R.; Calpini, B.; Spichtinger, P.; Peter, T.

2013-10-01

Observations of persistent high supersaturations with respect to ice inside cirrus clouds are challenging our understanding of cloud microphysics and of climate feedback processes in the upper troposphere. Single measurements of a cloudy air mass provide only a snapshot from which the persistence of ice supersaturation cannot be judged. We introduce here the "cirrus match technique" to obtain information of the evolution of clouds and their saturation ratio. The aim of these coordinated balloon soundings is to analyze the same air mass twice. To this end the standard radiosonde equipment is complemented by a frost point hygrometer "SnowWhite" and a particle backscatter detector "COBALD" (Compact Optical Backscatter Aerosol Detector). Extensive trajectory calculations based on regional weather model COSMO forecasts are performed for flight planning and COSMO analyses are used as basis for comprehensive microphysical box modeling (with grid scale 2 km and 7 km, respectively). Here we present the results of matching a cirrus cloud to within 2-15 km, realized on 8 June 2010 over Payerne, Switzerland, and a location 120 km downstream close to Zurich. A thick cirrus was detected over both measurement sites. We show that in order to quantitatively reproduce the measured particle backscatter ratios, the small-scale temperature fluctuations not resolved by COSMO must be superimposed on the trajectories. The stochastic nature of the fluctuations is captured by ensemble calculations. Possibilities for further improvements in the agreement with the measured backscatter data are investigated by assuming a very slow mass accommodation of water on ice, the presence of heterogeneous ice nuclei, or a wide span of (spheroidal) particle shapes. However, the resulting improvements from microphysical refinements are moderate and comparable in magnitude with changes caused by assuming different regimes of temperature fluctuations for clear sky or cloudy sky conditions, highlighting the importance of a proper treatment of subscale fluctuations. The model yields good agreement with the measured backscatter over both sites and reproduces the measured saturation ratios with respect to ice over Payerne. Conversely, the 30% in-cloud supersaturation measured in a massive, 4-km thick cloud layer over Zurich cannot be reproduced, irrespective of the choice of meteorological or microphysical model parameters. The measured supersaturation can only be explained by either resorting to an unknown physical process, which prevents the ice particles from consuming the excess humidity, or - much more likely - by a measurement error, such as a contamination of the sensor housing of the SnowWhite hygrometer by a precipitation drop from a mixed phase cloud just below the cirrus layer or from some very slight rain in the boundary layer. This uncertainty calls for in-flight checks or calibrations of hygrometers under the extreme humidity conditions in the upper troposphere.

Integrating hydrodynamic models and COSMO-SkyMed derived products for flood damage assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuffra, Flavio; Boni, Giorgio; Pulvirenti, Luca; Pierdicca, Nazzareno; Rudari, Roberto; Fiorini, Mattia

2015-04-01

Floods are the most frequent weather disasters in the world and probably the most costly in terms of social and economic losses. They may have a strong impact on infrastructures and health because the range of possible damages includes casualties, loss of housing and destruction of crops. Presently, the most common approach for remotely sensing floods is the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. Key features of SAR data for inundation mapping are the synoptic view, the capability to operate even in cloudy conditions and during both day and night time and the sensitivity of the microwave radiation to water. The launch of a new generation of instruments, such as TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) allows producing near real time flood maps having a spatial resolution in the order of 1-5 m. Moreover, the present (CSK) and upcoming (Sentinel-1) constellations permit the acquisition of radar data characterized by a short revisit time (in the order of some hours for CSK), so that the production of frequent inundation maps can be envisaged. Nonetheless, gaps might be present in the SAR-derived flood maps because of the limited area imaged by SAR; moreover, the detection of floodwater may be complicated by the presence of very dense vegetation or urban settlements. Hence the need to complement SAR-derived flood maps with the outputs of physical models. Physical models allow delivering to end users very useful information for a complete flood damage assessment, such as data on water depths and flow directions, which cannot be directly derived from satellite remote sensing images. In addition, the flood extent predictions of hydraulic models can be compared to SAR-derived inundation maps to calibrate the models, or to fill the aforementioned gaps that can be present in the SAR-derived maps. Finally, physical models enable the construction of risk scenarios useful for emergency managers to take their decisions and for programming additional SAR acquisitions in order to observe the temporal evolution of the event (e.g. the water receding). In this paper, the first outcomes of a study aiming at combining COSMO-SkyMed derived flood maps with hydrodynamic models are presented. The study is carried out within the framework of the EO-based CHange detection for Operational Flood Management (ECHO-FM) project, funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) as part of the research activities agreed in the cooperation between ASI and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). The flood that hit the region of Shkodër, in Albania, on January 2010, is considered as test case. The work focuses on the utility of a dense temporal series of SAR data, such as that available through CSK for this case study, used in combination with a hydrodynamic model to monitor over a long time (in the order of 3 weeks) the natural drainage of the Shkodër floodplain. It is shown that by matching the outputs of the model to SAR observations, the hydrodynamic inconsistencies in CSK estimates can be corrected.

Near-surface wind variability over the broader Adriatic region: insights from an ensemble of regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belušić, Andreina; Prtenjak, Maja Telišman; Güttler, Ivan; Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Schär, Christoph

2018-06-01

Over the past few decades the horizontal resolution of regional climate models (RCMs) has steadily increased, leading to a better representation of small-scale topographic features and more details in simulating dynamical aspects, especially in coastal regions and over complex terrain. Due to its complex terrain, the broader Adriatic region represents a major challenge to state-of-the-art RCMs in simulating local wind systems realistically. The objective of this study is to identify the added value in near-surface wind due to the refined grid spacing of RCMs. For this purpose, we use a multi-model ensemble composed of CORDEX regional climate simulations at 0.11° and 0.44° grid spacing, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, a COSMO convection-parameterizing simulation at 0.11° and a COSMO convection-resolving simulation at 0.02° grid spacing. Surface station observations from this region and satellite QuikSCAT data over the Adriatic Sea have been compared against daily output obtained from the available simulations. Both day-to-day wind and its frequency distribution are examined. The results indicate that the 0.44° RCMs rarely outperform ERA-Interim reanalysis, while the performance of the high-resolution simulations surpasses that of ERA-Interim. We also disclose that refining the grid spacing to a few km is needed to properly capture the small-scale wind systems. Finally, we show that the simulations frequently yield the accurate angle of local wind regimes, such as for the Bora flow, but overestimate the associated wind magnitude. Finally, spectral analysis shows good agreement between measurements and simulations, indicating the correct temporal variability of the wind speed.

A high-resolution regional reanalysis for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohlwein, C.

2015-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers the past 20 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

Probing the interactions between ionic liquids and water: experimental and quantum chemical approach.

PubMed

Khan, Imran; Kurnia, Kiki A; Mutelet, Fabrice; Pinho, Simão P; Coutinho, João A P

2014-02-20

For an adequate choice or design of ionic liquids, the knowledge of their interaction with other solutes and solvents is an essential feature for predicting the reactivity and selectivity of systems involving these compounds. In this work, the activity coefficient of water in several imidazolium-based ionic liquids with the common cation 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium was measured at 298.2 K. To contribute to a deeper insight into the interaction between ionic liquids and water, COSMO-RS was used to predict the activity coefficient of water in the studied ionic liquids along with the excess enthalpies. The results showed good agreement between experimental and predicted activity coefficient of water in ionic liquids and that the interaction of water and ionic liquids was strongly influenced by the hydrogen bonding of the anion with water. Accordingly, the intensity of interaction of the anions with water can be ranked as the following: [CF3SO3](-) < [SCN](-) < [TFA](-) < Br(-) < [TOS](-) < Cl(-) < [CH3SO3](-) [DMP](-) < [Ac](-). In addition, fluorination and aromatization of anions are shown to reduce their interaction with water. The effect of temperature on the activity coefficient of water at infinite dilution was measured by inverse gas chromatography and predicted by COSMO-RS. Further analysis based on COSMO-RS provided information on the nature of hydrogen bonding between water and anion as well as the possibility of anion-water complex formation.

Application of Bayesian model averaging to measurements of the primordial power spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, David; Liddle, Andrew R.

2010-11-01

Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for assessing parameter uncertainties in situations where there is also uncertainty in the underlying model. We apply model averaging to the estimation of the parameters associated with the primordial power spectra of curvature and tensor perturbations. We use CosmoNest and MultiNest to compute the model evidences and posteriors, using cosmic microwave data from WMAP, ACBAR, BOOMERanG, and CBI, plus large-scale structure data from the SDSS DR7. We find that the model-averaged 95% credible interval for the spectral index using all of the data is 0.940

Wave-current interaction: Effect on the wave field in a semi-enclosed basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benetazzo, A.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.; Bergamasco, A.

2013-10-01

The effect on waves of the Wave-Current Interaction (WCI) process in the semi-enclosed Gulf of Venice (northern region of the Adriatic Sea) was investigated using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system. COAWST relies on the ocean model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System), the wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore), and the CSTMS (Community Sediment Transport Modeling System) routines. The two-way data transfer between circulation and wave models was synchronous via MCT (Model Coupling Toolkit), with ROMS providing: current field, free surface elevation, and bathymetry to SWAN. For coupling, the 3-D current profiles were averaged using a formulation which integrated the near-surface velocity over a depth controlled by the spectral mean wavenumber. COAWST system was implemented on a parent grid (with horizontal resolution of 2.0 km) covering the whole Adriatic Sea with one-way nesting to a child grid resolving the northern area (Gulf of Venice) at a resolution of 0.5 km. The meteorological forcings provided by the operational meteorological model COSMO-I7 (a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) were used to drive the modeling system in the period bracketing September 2010-August 2011. The adopted winds and the simulated waves were compared with observations at the CNR-ISMAR Acqua Alta oceanographic tower, located off the Venice littoral. Wave heights and sea surface winds were also compared with satellite-derived data. The analysis of WCI was performed on the child grid over the winter season (January-March 2011) with particular focus on the waves generated by prevailing and dominant winds blowing on the Adriatic Sea: Bora and Sirocco. Due to the variable wind direction with respect to the ocean current direction different effects on WCI were depicted, showing that within the northern Adriatic Sea the ocean-wave interactions are strongly dependent on the wind forcing direction. Further investigations reveal that, when applied to intense storms, the effect of coupling on waves results in variations of significant wave height up to 0.6 m, with some areas experiencing significant increase/decrease of wave spectral energy for opposite/following currents respectively.

Model Intercomparison of CCN-Limited Arctic Clouds During ASCOS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Robin; Dearden, Chris; Dimetrelos, Antonios; Eirund, Gesa; Possner, Anna; Raatikainen, Tomi; Loewe, Katharina; Hill, Adrian; Shipway, Ben; Connolly, Paul; Ekman, Annica; Hoose, Corinna; Laaksonen, Ari; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Kolmonen, Pekka; Saponaro, Giulia; Field, Paul; Carlsaw, Ken

2017-04-01

Future decreases in Arctic sea ice are expected to increase fluxes of aerosol and precursor gases from the open ocean surface within the Arctic. The resulting increase in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations would be expected to result in increased cloud albedo (Struthers et al, 2011), leading to potentially large changes in radiative forcings. However, Browse et al. (2014) have shown that these increases in condensable material could also result in the growth of existing particles to sizes where they are more efficiently removed by wet deposition in drizzling stratocumulus clouds, ultimately decreasing CCN concentrations in the high Arctic. Their study was limited in that it did not simulate alterations of dynamics or cloud properties due to either changes in heat and moisture fluxes following sea­-ice loss or changing aerosol concentrations. Taken together, these results show that significant uncertainties remain in trying to quantify aerosol­-cloud processes in the Arctic system. The current representation of these processes in global climate models is most likely insufficient to realistically simulate long­-term changes. In order to better understand the microphysical processes currently governing Arctic clouds, we perform a model intercomparison of summertime high Arctic (>80N) clouds observed during the 2008 ASCOS campaign. The intercomparison includes results from three large eddy simulation models (UCLALES-SALSA, COSMO-LES, and MIMICA) and three numerical weather prediction models (COSMO-NWP, WRF, and UM-CASIM). The results of these experiments will be used as a basis for sensitivity studies on the impact of sea-ice loss on Arctic clouds through changes in aerosol and precursor emissions as well as changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Browse, J., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14(14), 7543-7557, doi:10.5194/acp-14-7543-2014, 2014. Struthers, H., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11(7), 3459-3477, doi:10.5194/acp-11-3459-2011, 2011.

Statistical analysis of NWP rainfall data from Poland..

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starosta, Katarzyna; Linkowska, Joanna

2010-05-01

A goal of this work is to summarize the latest results of precipitation verification in Poland. In IMGW, COSMO_PL version 4.0 has been running. The model configuration is: 14 km horizontal grid spacing, initial time at 00 UTC and 12 UTC, the forecast range 72 h. The fields from the model had been verified with Polish SYNOP stations. The verification was performed using a new verification tool. For the accumulated precipitation indices FBI, POD, FAR, ETS from contingency table are calculated. In this paper the comparison of monthly and seasonal verification of 6h, 12h, 24h accumulated precipitation in 2009 is presented. Since February 2010 the model with 7 km grid spacing will be running in IMGW. The results of precipitation verification for two different models' resolution will be shown.

Modeling of Long-Term Evolution of Hydrophysical Fields of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorofeyev, V. L.; Sukhikh, L. I.

2017-11-01

The long-term evolution of the Black Sea dynamics (1980-2020) is reconstructed by numerical simulation. The model of the Black Sea circulation has 4.8 km horizontal spatial resolution and 40 levels in z-coordinates. The mixing processes in the upper layer are parameterized by Mellor-Yamada turbulent model. For the sea surface boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing functions were used, provided for the Black Sea region by the Euro mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) from the COSMO-CLM regional climate model. These data have a spatial resolution of 14 km and a daily temporal resolution. To evaluate the quality of the hydrodynamic fields derived from the simulation, they were compared with in-situ hydrological measurements and similar results from physical reanalysis of the Black Sea.

Theoretical study of chain transfer to solvent reactions of alkyl acrylates.

PubMed

Moghadam, Nazanin; Srinivasan, Sriraj; Grady, Michael C; Rappe, Andrew M; Soroush, Masoud

2014-07-24

This computational and theoretical study deals with chain transfer to solvent (CTS) reactions of methyl acrylate (MA), ethyl acrylate (EA), and n-butyl acrylate (n-BA) self-initiated homopolymerization in solvents such as butanol (polar, protic), methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) (polar, aprotic), and p-xylene (nonpolar). The results indicate that abstraction of a hydrogen atom from the methylene group next to the oxygen atom in n-butanol, from the methylene group in MEK, and from a methyl group in p-xylene by a live polymer chain are the most likely mechanisms of CTS reactions in MA, EA, and n-BA. Energy barriers and molecular geometries of reactants, products, and transition states are predicted. The sensitivity of the predictions to three hybrid functionals (B3LYP, X3LYP, and M06-2X) and three different basis sets (6-31G(d,p), 6-311G(d), and 6-311G(d,p)) is investigated. Among n-butanol, sec-butanol, and tert-butanol, tert-butanol has the highest CTS energy barrier and the lowest rate constant. Although the application of the conductor-like screening model (COSMO) does not affect the predicted CTS kinetic parameter values, the application of the polarizable continuum model (PCM) results in higher CTS energy barriers. This increase in the predicted CTS energy barriers is larger for butanol and MEK than for p-xylene. The higher rate constants of chain transfer to n-butanol reactions compared to those of chain transfer to MEK and p-xylene reactions suggest the higher CTS reactivity of n-butanol.

Satellite-based assessment of grassland yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, K.; Siegmund, R.; Wagner, M.; Hartmann, S.

2015-04-01

Cutting date and frequency are important parameters determining grassland yields in addition to the effects of weather, soil conditions, plant composition and fertilisation. Because accurate and area-wide data of grassland yields are currently not available, cutting frequency can be used to estimate yields. In this project, a method to detect cutting dates via surface changes in radar images is developed. The combination of this method with a grassland yield model will result in more reliable and regional-wide numbers of grassland yields. For the test-phase of the monitoring project, a study area situated southeast of Munich, Germany, was chosen due to its high density of managed grassland. For determining grassland cutting robust amplitude change detection techniques are used evaluating radar amplitude or backscatter statistics before and after the cutting event. CosmoSkyMed and Sentinel-1A data were analysed. All detected cuts were verified according to in-situ measurements recorded in a GIS database. Although the SAR systems had various acquisition geometries, the amount of detected grassland cut was quite similar. Of 154 tested grassland plots, covering in total 436 ha, 116 and 111 cuts were detected using CosmoSkyMed and Sentinel-1A radar data, respectively. Further improvement of radar data processes as well as additional analyses with higher sample number and wider land surface coverage will follow for optimisation of the method and for validation and generalisation of the results of this feasibility study. The automation of this method will than allow for an area-wide and cost efficient cutting date detection service improving grassland yield models.

Simulation of the Aerosol-Atmosphere Interaction in the Dead Sea Area with COSMO-ART

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Bernhard; Bangert, Max; Kottmeier, Christoph; Rieger, Daniel; Schad, Tobias; Vogel, Heike

2014-05-01

The Dead Sea is a unique environment located in the Dead Sea Rift Valley. The fault system of the Dead Sea Rift Valley marks the political borders between Israel, Jordan, and Palestine. The Dead Sea region and the ambient Eastern Mediterranean coastal zone provide a natural laboratory for studying atmospheric processes ranging from the smallest scale of cloud processes to regional weather and climate. The virtual institute DESERVE is designed as a cross-disciplinary and cooperative international project of the Helmholtz Centers KIT, GFZ, and UFZ with well-established partners in Israel, Jordan and Palestine. One main focus of one of the work packages is the role of aerosols in modifying clouds and precipitation and in developing the Dead Sea haze layer as one of the most intriguing questions. The haze influences visibility, solar radiation, and evaporation and may even affect economy and health. We applied the online coupled model system COSMO-ART, which is able to treat the feedback processes between aerosol, radiation, and cloud formation, for a case study above the Dead Sea and adjacent regions. Natural aerosol like mineral dust and sea salt as well as anthropogenic primary and secondary aerosol is taken into account. Some of the observed features like the vertical double structure of the haze layer are already covered by the simulation. We found that absorbing aerosol like mineral dust causes a temperature increase in parts of the model domain. In other areas a decrease in temperature due to cirrus clouds modified by elevated dust layers is simulated.

Improved Weather and Power Forecasts for Energy Operations - the German Research Project EWeLiNE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundgren, Kristina; Siefert, Malte; Hagedorn, Renate; Majewski, Detlev

2014-05-01

The German energy system is going through a fundamental change. Based on the energy plans of the German federal government, the share of electrical power production from renewables should increase to 35% by 2020. This means that, in the near future at certain times renewable energies will provide a major part of Germany's power production. Operating a power supply system with a large share of weather-dependent power sources in a secure way requires improved power forecasts. One of the most promising strategies to improve the existing wind power and PV power forecasts is to optimize the underlying weather forecasts and to enhance the collaboration between the meteorology and energy sectors. Deutscher Wetterdienst addresses these challenges in collaboration with Fraunhofer IWES within the research project EWeLiNE. The overarching goal of the project is to improve the wind and PV power forecasts by combining improved power forecast models and optimized weather forecasts. During the project, the numerical weather prediction models COSMO-DE and COSMO-DE-EPS (Ensemble Prediction System) by Deutscher Wetterdienst will be generally optimized towards improved wind power and PV forecasts. For instance, it will be investigated whether the assimilation of new types of data, e.g. power production data, can lead to improved weather forecasts. With regard to the probabilistic forecasts, the focus is on the generation of ensembles and ensemble calibration. One important aspect of the project is to integrate the probabilistic information into decision making processes by developing user-specified products. In this paper we give an overview of the project and present first results.

COSMO-SkyMed measurements in precipitation over the sea: analysis of Louisiana summer thunderstorms by simultaneous weather radar observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberto, N.; Baldini, L.; Gorgucci, E.; Facheris, L.; Chandrasekar, V.

2012-04-01

Radar signatures of rain cells are investigated using X-band synthetic aperture radar (X-SAR) images acquired from COSMO-SkyMed constellation over oceans off the coast of Louisiana in summer 2010 provided by ASI archive. COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) monitoring of Deepwater Horizon oil spill provided a big amount of data during the period April-September 2010 and in July-August when several thunderstorms occurred in that area. In X-SAR images, radar signatures of rain cells over the sea usually consist of irregularly shaped bright and dark patches. These signatures originate from 1) the scattering and attenuation of radiation by hydrometers in the rain cells and 2) the modification of the sea roughness induced by the impact of raindrops and by wind gusts associated with rain cell. However, the interpretation of precipitation signatures in X-SAR images is not completely straightforward, especially over sea. Coincident measurements from ground based radars and an electromagnetic (EM) model predicting radar returns from the sea surface corrugated by rainfall are used to support the analysis. A dataset consisting of 4 CSK images has been collected over Gulf of Mexico while a WSR-88D NEXRAD S-band Doppler radar (KLIX) located in New Orleans was scanning the nearby portion of ocean. Terrestrial measurements have been used to reconstruct the component of X-SAR returns due to precipitation by modifying the known technique applied on measurements over land (Fritz et al. 2010, Baldini et al. 2011). Results confirm that the attenuation signature in X-SAR images collected over land, particularly pronounced in the presence of heavy precipitation cells, can be related to the S-band radar reflectivity integrated along the same path. The Normalized Radar Cross Section (NRCS) of land is considered to vary usually up to a few dBs in case of rain but with strong dependency on the specific type and conditions of land cover. While the NRCS of sea surface in clear weather condition can be considered as constant, in case of rain, at X-SAR incidence angles, it exhibits a dependence to precipitation event due the combined effects of corrugation due to the impinging raindrops and to the surface wind. Therefore, when retrieving of X-SAR NRCS in precipitation over the sea, this effect must be accounted for and can be quantified based on the precipitation event using a simple NRCS surface model. In this work, an EM model based on Bahar's Full Wave Model is used for evaluating such NRCS depending on polarization, frequency and incidence angle for different values of wind velocity and the root mean square height of the corrugation induced by rainfall. The reconstruction of X-SAR returns in precipitation is finally obtained by joint utilization of volume reflectivity and attenuation estimated from KLIX and the sea NRCS model.

Balloon-borne match measurements of midlatitude cirrus clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cirisan, A.; Luo, B. P.; Engel, I.; Wienhold, F. G.; Sprenger, M.; Krieger, U. K.; Weers, U.; Romanens, G.; Levrat, G.; Jeannet, P.; Ruffieux, D.; Philipona, R.; Calpini, B.; Spichtinger, P.; Peter, T.

2014-07-01

Observations of high supersaturations with respect to ice inside cirrus clouds with high ice water content (> 0.01 g kg-1) and high crystal number densities (> 1 cm-3) are challenging our understanding of cloud microphysics and of climate feedback processes in the upper troposphere. However, single measurements of a cloudy air mass provide only a snapshot from which the persistence of ice supersaturation cannot be judged. We introduce here the "cirrus match technique" to obtain information about the evolution of clouds and their saturation ratio. The aim of these coordinated balloon soundings is to analyze the same air mass twice. To this end the standard radiosonde equipment is complemented by a frost point hygrometer, "SnowWhite", and a particle backscatter detector, "COBALD" (Compact Optical Backscatter AerosoL Detector). Extensive trajectory calculations based on regional weather model COSMO (Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling) forecasts are performed for flight planning, and COSMO analyses are used as a basis for comprehensive microphysical box modeling (with grid scale of 2 and 7 km, respectively). Here we present the results of matching a cirrus cloud to within 2-15 km, realized on 8 June 2010 over Payerne, Switzerland, and a location 120 km downstream close to Zurich. A thick cirrus cloud was detected over both measurement sites. We show that in order to quantitatively reproduce the measured particle backscatter ratios, the small-scale temperature fluctuations not resolved by COSMO must be superimposed on the trajectories. The stochastic nature of the fluctuations is captured by ensemble calculations. Possibilities for further improvements in the agreement with the measured backscatter data are investigated by assuming a very slow mass accommodation of water on ice, the presence of heterogeneous ice nuclei, or a wide span of (spheroidal) particle shapes. However, the resulting improvements from these microphysical refinements are moderate and comparable in magnitude with changes caused by assuming different regimes of temperature fluctuations for clear-sky or cloudy-sky conditions, highlighting the importance of proper treatment of subscale fluctuations. The model yields good agreement with the measured backscatter over both sites and reproduces the measured saturation ratios with respect to ice over Payerne. Conversely, the 30% in-cloud supersaturation measured in a massive 4 km thick cloud layer over Zurich cannot be reproduced, irrespective of the choice of meteorological or microphysical model parameters. The measured supersaturation can only be explained by either resorting to an unknown physical process, which prevents the ice particles from consuming the excess humidity, or - much more likely - by a measurement error, such as a contamination of the sensor housing of the SnowWhite hygrometer by a precipitation drop from a mixed-phase cloud just below the cirrus layer or from some very slight rain in the boundary layer. This uncertainty calls for in-flight checks or calibrations of hygrometers under the special humidity conditions in the upper troposphere.

On the use of COSMO-SkyMed time series for the identification of Archaeological traces dating from the Eastern-Han to Northern-Wei Dynasties in Luoyang city.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Fulong; Masini, Nicola; Yang, Ruixia; Feng, Dexian; Lasaponara, Rosa

2015-04-01

The availability of Very High Resolution (VHR) Synthetic Aperture SAR (SAR) data (Lasaponara and Masini 2013, Tapete et al. 2013), such as TerraSAR-X and Cosmo Sky Med launched in 2007, opened a new era in the spaceborne SAR remote sensing, including archaeology remote sensing previous mainly based on optical data (see for example Lasaponara and Masini 2012, Ciminale et al. 2009, Masini and Lasaponara 2006). They provide powerful tools, based on active sensors from space operating in the microwave frequency range, which are useful to extract information about the contemporary landscape and make possible, in some conditions, to infer changes in the former environment and to detect archaeological remains. Nevertheless, the capability of satellite radar technology in archaeology has so far not been fully assessed. This paper (Chen et al 2015) is a pioneering effort to assess the potential of satellite SAR X-band data in the detection of archaeological marks. We focus on the results obtained from a collaborative contribution jointly carried out by archaeologists and remote sensing experts in order to test the use of COSMO-SkyMed data in different contexts and environmental conditions. The methodological approach we adopted is based on multi-temporal analysis performed to reduce noise and highlight archaeological marks. Results from multi-temporal data analysis, conducted using 40 scenes from COSMO-SkyMed X-band Stripmap data (27 February to 17 October 2013), enable us to detect unknown archaeological crop, soil, and shadow marks representing Luoyang city, dating from the Eastern-Han to Northern-Wei Dynasties. Reference Chen F., Masini N., Yang R., Milillo P., Feng D., Lasaponara R., 2015 A Space View of Radar Archaeological Marks: First Applications of COSMO-SkyMed X-Band Data. Remote Sens. 2015, 7, 24-50; doi:10.3390/rs70100024. Lasaponara R., Masini N. 2013, Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar in Archaeology and Cultural Landscape: An Overview. Archaeological Prospection, 20, 71-78, doi: 10.1002/arp.1452 Tapete D., Cigna F., Masini N., Lasaponara R. 2013. Prospection and monitoring of the archaeological heritage of Nasca, Peru, with ENVISAT ASAR, Archaeological Prospection, 20, 133-147, doi: 10.1002/arp.1449. Ciminale M, D Gallo, R Lasaponara, N Masini, 2009 A multiscale approach for reconstructing archaeological landscapes: applications in Northern Apulia (Italy) Archaeological Prospection 16 (3), 143-153 Lasaponara R, N Masini, 2012 Satellite Remote Sensing, A New Tool for Archaeology (Series Remote Sensing and Digital Image) Springer book Masini N, R Lasaponara, 2006, Satellite-based recognition of landscape archaeological features related to ancient human transformation Journal of Geophysics and Engineering 3 (3), 230.

Hydrological Assessment of Model Performance and Scenario Analyses of Land Use Change and Climate Change in lowlands of Veneto Region (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pijl, Anton; Brauer, Claudia; Sofia, Giulia; Teuling, Ryan; Tarolli, Paolo

2017-04-01

Growing water-related challenges in lowland areas of the world call for good assessment of our past and present actions, in order to guide our future decisions. The novel Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS; Brauer et al., 2014) was developed to simulate hydrological processes and has showed promising performance in recent studies in the Netherlands. Here the model was applied to a coastal basin of 2800 ha in the Veneto Region (northern Italy) to test model performance and evaluate scenario analyses of land use change and climate change. Located partially below sea-level, the reclaimed area is facing persistent land transformation and climate change trends, which alter not only the processes in the catchment but also the demands from it (Tarolli and Sofia, 2016). Firstly results of the calibration (NSE = 0.77; year simulation, daily resolution) and validation (NSE = 0.53; idem) showed that the model is able to reproduce the dominant hydrological processes of this lowland area (e.g. discharge and groundwater fluxes). Land use scenarios between 1951 and 2060 were constructed using demographic models, supported by orthographic interpretation techniques. Climate scenarios were constructed by historical records and future projections by COSMO-CLM regional climate model (Rockel et al., 2008) under the RCP4.5 pathway. WALRUS simulations showed that the land use changes result in a wetter catchment with more discharge, and the climatic changes cause more extremes with longer droughts and stronger rain events. These changes combined show drier summers (-33{%} rainfall, +27{%} soil moisture deficit) and wetter (+13{%} rainfall) and intenser (+30{%} rain intensity) autumn and winters in the future. The simulated discharge regime -particularly peak flow- follows these polarising trends, in good agreement with similar studies in the geographical zone (e.g. Vezzoli et al., 2015). This will increase the pressure on the fully-artificial drainage and agricultural systems, that will need to adapt to prevent largescale floods or crop-failure. Additionally, simulations under 'business-as-usual' pathway RCP8.5 would likely amplify the polarising effects on the hydrological regime as presented here, further stressing the need for adequate adaptation. The proposed presentation at EGU 2017 will contain clear visual results of the model and quantitative scenario simulations. These results are particularly interesting, firstly because they prove how a simple conceptual model can become a powerful tool in scenario analysis of future pathways. Furthermore, they clearly indicate major challenges that lowland areas are facing in modern times - not only the 46.000 km2 Po valley, but all around the world where lowlands often host the centres of our societies and economies. REFERENCES Brauer, C., Teuling, A., Torfs, P., Uijlenhoet, R., 2014. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a lumped rainfall-runoff model for catchments with shallow groundwater. Geoscientific Model Development 7 (5), 2313-2332. Rockel, B., Will, A., Hense, A., 2008. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorologische Zeitschrift 17 (4), 347-348. Tarolli, P., Sofia, G., 2016. Human topographic signatures and derived geomorphic processes across landscapes. Geomorphology 255, 140-161. Vezzoli, R., Mercogliano, P., Pecora, S., Zollo, A., Cacciamani, C., 2015. Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM. Science of The Total Environment 521, 346-358.

The forecaster's added value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

2009-09-01

To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the skill scores of two competitive forecast. It is important to underline that the conclusions refer to the analysis of the Piemonte operational alert system, so they cannot be directly taken as universally true. But we think that some of the main lessons that can be derived from this study could be useful for the meteorological community. In details, the main conclusions are the following: - despite the overall improvement in global scale and the fact that the resolution of the limited area models has increased considerably over recent years, the QPF produced by the meteorological models involved in this study has not improved enough to allow its direct use, that is, the subjective HQPF continues to offer the best performance; - in the forecast process, the step where humans have the largest added value with respect to mathematical models, is the communication. In fact the human characterisation and communication of the forecast uncertainty to end users cannot be replaced by any computer code; - eventually, although there is no novelty in this study, we would like to show that the correct application of appropriated statistical techniques permits a better definition and quantification of the errors and, mostly important, allows a correct (unbiased) communication between forecasters and decision makers.

Recognition of Terrestrial Impact Craters with COSMO-SkyMed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virelli, M.; Staffieri, S.; Battagliere, M. L.; Komatsu, G.; Di Martino, M.; Flamini, E.; Coletta, A.

2016-08-01

All bodies having a solid surface, without distinction, show, with greater or lesser evidence, the marks left by the geological processes they undergone during their evolution. There is a geomorphological feature that is evident in all the images obtained by the probes sent to explore our planetary system: impact craters.Craters formed by the impact of small cosmic bodies have dimensions ranging from some meters to hundreds of kilometers. However, for example on the Lunar regolith particles, have been observed also sub- millimeter craters caused by dust impacts. The kinetic energy of the impactor, which velocity is in general of the order of tens km/s, is released in fractions of a second, generally in a explosive way, generating complex phenomena that transform not only the morphology of the surface involved by the impact, but also the mineralogy and crystallography of the impacted material. Even our planet is not immune to these impacts. At present, more than 180 geological structures recognized as of impact origin are known on Earth.In this article, we aim to show how these impact structures on Earth's surface are observed from space. To do this, we used the images obtained by the COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation.Starting from 2013, ASI proposed, in collaboration with the Astrophysical Observatory of Turin and University D'Annunzio of Chieti, the realization of an Encyclopedic Atlas of Terrestrial Impact Craters using COSMO-SkyMed data that will become the first atlas of all recognized terrestrial impact craters based on images acquired by a X band radar. To observe these impact craters all radar sensor modes have been used, according to the size of the analyzed crater.The project includes research of any new features that could be classified as impact craters and, for the sites whereby it is considered necessary, the implementation of a geological survey on site to validate the observations.In this paper an overview of the Atlas of Terrestrial Impact Craters using COSMO-SkyMed data, currently under review for publication, is provided.

CosmoQuest Year 1.5: Citizen Scientist Behaviors and Site Usage Across Multiple Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gugliucci, Nicole E.; Gay, P. L.; Bracey, G.; CosmoQuest Team

2013-06-01

CosmoQuest launched as a citizen science portal in January 2012 and has since expanded to include three projects in planetary surface mapping, one completed project searching for KBOs, and several more on the way with various astrophysical science goals. We take a close look at how our users move through the site, how much time they spend on various tasks, project retention rate, and how many use multiple projects on the site. We are also piloting a citizen science motivation survey given to random site users to find out why citizen scientists join new projects and continue to participate. This is part of a larger project using online and real-life interactions to study citizen scientist behaviors, motivations, and learning with a goal of building better community with researchers, volunteers, educators, and developers.

A Combined Experimental and Computational Study on Selected Physical Properties of Aminosilicones

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perry, RJ; Genovese, SE; Farnum, RL

2014-01-29

A number of physical properties of aminosilicones have been determined experimentally and predicted computationally. It was found that COSMO-RS predicted the densities of the materials under study to within about 4% of the experimentally determined values. Vapor pressure measurements were performed, and all of the aminosilicones of interest were found to be significantly less volatile than the benchmark MEA material. COSMO-RS was reasonably accurate for predicting the vapor pressures for aminosilicones that were thermally stable. The heat capacities of all aminosilicones tested were between 2.0 and 2.3 J/(g.degrees C); again substantially lower than a benchmark 30% aqueous MEA solution. Surfacemore » energies for the aminosilicones were found to be 23.3-28.3 dyne/cm and were accurately predicted using the parachor method.« less

Large area robust identification of snow cover from multitemporal COSMO-SkyMed images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettinato, S.; Santi, E.; Paloscia, S.; Aiazzi, B.; Baronti, S.; Palchetti, E.; Garzelli, A.

2015-10-01

This paper investigates the ability of the Information Theoretic Snow Detection Algorithm (ITSDA) in detecting changes due to snow cover between summer and winter seasons on large area images acquired by COSMO-SkyMed constellation. ITSDA is a method for change detection in multitemporal SAR images, which has been recently applied by the authors to a subset of Cosmo-SkyMed data. The proposed technique is based on a nonparametric approach in the framework of Shannon's information theory, and in particular it features the conditional probability of the local means between the two images taken at different times. Such an unsupervised approach does not require any preliminary despeckling procedure to be performed before the calculation of the change map. In the case of a low quantity of anomalous changes in relatively small-size images, a mean shift procedure can be utilized for refining the map. However, in the present investigation, the changes to be identified are pervasive in large size images. Consequently, for computational issues, the mean shift refinement has been omitted in the present work. However, a simplified implementation of mean shift procedure to save time will be possibly considered in future submissions. In any case, the present version of ITSDA method preserve its characteristics of flexibility and sensibility to backscattering changes, thanks to the possibility of setting up the number of quantization levels in the estimation of the conditional probability between the amplitude values at the two acquisition dates.

CosmoBon for studying wood formation under exotic gravitational environment for future space agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomita-Yokotani, Kaori; Baba, Keiichi; Suzuki, Toshisada; Funada, Ryo; Nakamura, Teruko; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Yamashita, Masamichi; Cosmobon, Jstwg

We are proposing to raise woody plants in space for several applications and plant science. Japanese flowering cherry tree is one of a candidate for these studies. Mechanism behind sensing gravity and controlling shape of tree has been studied quite extensively. Even molecular mechanism for the response of plant against gravity has been investigated quite intensively for various species, woody plants are left behind. Morphology of woody branch growth is different from that of stem growth in herbs. Morphology in tree is strongly dominated by the secondary xylem formation. Nobody knows the tree shape grown under the space environment. If whole tree could be brought up to space as research materials, it might provide important scientific knowledge. Furthermore, trees produce excess oxygen, wooden materials for living cabin, and provide biomass for cultivating mushroom and insect as for the space agriculture. Excellent tree shapes which would be deeply related to wood formation improve quality of life under stressful environment in outer space. The serious problem would be their size. Bonsai is one of the Japanese traditional arts. We can study secondly xylem formation, wood formation, under exotic gravitational environment using Bonsai. "CosmoBon" is the small tree Bonsai for our space experiment. It has been recognized that the reaction wood in CosmoBon is formed similar to natural trees. Our goal is to examine feasibility to grow various species of trees in space as bioresource for space agriculture.

Determining Heat Waves from Observations and COSMO-CLM Simulations in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuruk, Cemre; Unal, Yurdanur; Irem Bilgen, Simge; Topcu, Sema; Mentes, Sibel

2016-04-01

Climate change has crucial effects on cities and especially for informal settlements, urban poor and other vulnerable groups by influencing human health, assets and livelihoods. These impacts directly result from the variations in temperature and precipitation, and emergence of heat waves, droughts, floods and fires (IPCC, 2014). Summertime episodes with extremely high air temperatures which last for several days or longer are addressed to as heat waves and affect the weather and climate in the globe. The aim of this study is to analyze the occurrence of heat waves in terms of quantity, duration and frequency and also to evaluate the accuracy of the COSMO-CLM (CCLM) model coupled with MPI-ESM-LR in reproducing the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. The summer maximum temperatures of six Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) stations are selected between 1960 and 2013 to estimate the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. We define the heat wave if the maximum temperatures exceed a threshold value for at least three consecutive days. The threshold value is determined as 30.5 °C from the 90th percentile of all six station's observations. Then it is used in the detection of the hot days, heat waves and their durations. The results show that not only the number of heat waves but also duration of heat waves increase towards the end of the study period. Especially, a significant increase in heat wave events is evident after 1990s. An example of this situation is observed in a Kilyos station located northern part of the city. Kilyos experiences only one heat wave in the beginning of 1970s whereas the number of heat waves increases in years and reaches to the maximum value of 5 in 2000. Furthermore, Kartal as an urban area in the Asian side of the city, exhibits highest heat wave duration with 18 consecutive days in 1998. In addition to station data analyses, the local climate of Istanbul and its vicinity is simulated by CCLM model with approximately 3 km resolution between 1970 and 2005 and the verifications of the heat waves are carried out in terms of the intensity, duration and spatial extent. It is found that urban heat island increases the frequency of hot-days at the urbanized areas of Istanbul. This work is supported by TUBITAK project, number 114Y047. Keywords: Heat waves, Istanbul, local climate, COSMO-CLM, urban heat island

The forecaster's added value in QPF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

2009-04-01

To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the skill scores of two competitive forecast. It is important to underline that the conclusions refer to the analysis of the Piemonte operational alert system, so they cannot be directly taken as universally true. But we think that some of the main lessons that can be derived from this study could be useful for the meteorological community. In details, the main conclusions are the following: · despite the overall improvement in global scale and the fact that the resolution of the limited area models has increased considerably over recent years, the QPF produced by the meteorological models involved in this study has not improved enough to allow its direct use: the subjective HQPF continues to offer the best performance; · in the forecast process, the step where humans have the largest added value with respect to mathematical models, is the communication. In fact the human characterisation and communication of the forecast uncertainty to end users cannot be replaced by any computer code; · the QPFs verification is one of the most important activities of a Centro Funzionale because it allows a better understanding of the model behaviour in the different meteorological configurations, highlights the systematic characteristics, and helps in evaluating the reliability, in average or extreme values, over long term or in current situations; · eventually, although there is no novelty in this study, we would like to show that the correct application of appropriated statistical tecniques permits a better definition and quantification of the errors and, mostly important, allows a correct (unbiased) communication between forecasters and decision makers.

From air to clothing: characterizing the accumulation of semi-volatile organic compounds to fabrics in indoor environments.

PubMed

Saini, A; Okeme, J O; Mark Parnis, J; McQueen, R H; Diamond, M L

2017-05-01

Uptake kinetics of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) present indoors, namely phthalates and halogenated flame retardants (HFRs), were characterized for cellulose-based cotton and rayon fabrics. Cotton and rayon showed similar accumulation of gas- and particle-phase SVOCs, when normalized to planar surface area. Accumulation was 3-10 times greater by rayon than cotton, when normalized to Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) specific surface area which suggests that cotton could have a longer linear uptake phase than rayon. Linear uptake rates of eight consistently detected HFRs over 56 days of 0.35-0.92 m 3 /day.dm 2 planar surface area and mass transfer coefficients of 1.5-3.8 m/h were statistically similar for cotton and rayon and similar to those for uptake to passive air sampling media. These results suggest air-side controlled uptake and that, on average, 2 m 2 of clothing typically worn by a person would sequester the equivalent of the chemical content in 100 m 3 of air per day. Distribution coefficients between fabric and air (K') ranged from 6.5 to 7.7 (log K') and were within the range of partition coefficients measured for selected phthalates as reported in the literature. The distribution coefficients were similar for low molecular weight HFRs, and up to two orders of magnitude lower than the equilibrium partition coefficients estimated using the COSMO-RS model. Based on the COSMO-RS model, time to reach 95% of equilibrium for PBDEs between fabric and gas-phase compounds ranged from 0.1 to >10 years for low to high molecular weight HFRs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Antarctic Ice Sheet Grounding line migration monitoring using COSMO-SkyMed very short repeat-time SAR Interferometry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milillo, P.; Rignot, E. J.; Mouginot, J.; Scheuchl, B.; Morlighem, M.; Li, X.; Salzer, J. T.

2016-12-01

We employ data from the second generation of SAR systems e.g. the Italian COSMO-SkyMed constellation and the German TanDEM-X formation to monitor the characteristics of grounding line migration using short repeat-time interferometry and accurate InSAR DEM in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), West Antarctica. The ASE is a marine-based ice sheet with a retrograde bed containing enough ice to raise global sea level by 120 cm. Several studies have inferred the mechanical properties of portions of ASE using observationally constrained numerical models, but these studies offer only temporal snapshots of basal mechanics owing to a dearth of observational time series. Using 1-day CSK repeat pass data and TanDEM-X DEMs, we collected frequent, high-resolution grounding line measurements of Pine Island (PIG), Thwaites, Kohler and Smith glaciers spanning 2015-2016. We compare the results with ERS data spanning 1996-2011, and Sentinel-1a 2014-2015 data. We observe an ongoing, rapid 2km/yr grounding line retreat on Smith, 0.5 km/yr retreat on Pope, ongoing 1 km/yr retreat on Thwaites and PIG and a slight re-advance on Kohler since 2011. On PIG, the data reveal seawater infiltration at high tides over many km along the glacier flanks, significantly more than in 1996/2000. We attribute these infiltrations to the fast retreat of PIG over a rough bed. Such intrusion of warm water fuel the melting of basal ice at the grounding line, which provides an additional positive feedback to the glacier retreat not accounted for in models. We do not observe similar patterns on the other glaciers.

Spectral and structural studies of dimethylphenyl betaine hydrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szafran, M.; Ostrowska, K.; Katrusiak, A.; Dega-Szafran, Z.

2014-07-01

Hydrates of betaines can be divided into four groups depending on the interactions of their water molecules with the carboxylate group. Dimethylphenyl betaine crystallizes as monohydrate (1), in which water molecules mediate in hydrogen bonds between the carboxylate groups. The water molecules are H-bonded only to one oxygen atom of the dimethylphenyl betaine molecules and link them into a chain via two O(1 W)sbnd H⋯O hydrogen bonds of the lengths 2.779(2) and 2.846(2) Å. The structures of monomer (2) and dimer (4) hydrates in vacuum, and the structure of monomer (3) in an aqueous environment have been optimized by the B3LYP/6-311++G(d,p) approach and the geometrical results have been compared with the X-ray diffraction data of 1. The calculated IR frequencies for the optimized structure have been used for the assignments of FTIR bands, the broad absorption band in the range 3415-3230 cm-1 has been assigned to the O(1w)sbnd H⋯O hydrogen bonds. The correlations between the experimental 1H and 13C NMR chemical shifts (δexp) of 1 in D2O and the magnetic isotropic shielding constants (σcalc) calculated by the GIAO/B3LYP/6-311G++(d,p) approach, using the screening solvation model (COSMO), δexp = a + b σcalc, for optimized molecule 3 in water solution are linear and well reproduce the experimental chemical shifts.

"Bligh and Dyer" and Folch Methods for Solid-Liquid-Liquid Extraction of Lipids from Microorganisms. Comprehension of Solvatation Mechanisms and towards Substitution with Alternative Solvents.

PubMed

Breil, Cassandra; Abert Vian, Maryline; Zemb, Thomas; Kunz, Werner; Chemat, Farid

2017-03-27

Bligh and Dyer (B & D) or Folch procedures for the extraction and separation of lipids from microorganisms and biological tissues using chloroform/methanol/water have been used tens of thousands of times and are "gold standards" for the analysis of extracted lipids. Based on the Conductor-like Screening MOdel for realistic Solvatation (COSMO-RS), we select ethanol and ethyl acetate as being potentially suitable for the substitution of methanol and chloroform. We confirm this by performing solid-liquid extraction of yeast ( Yarrowia lipolytica IFP29 ) and subsequent liquid-liquid partition-the two steps of routine extraction. For this purpose, we consider similar points in the ternary phase diagrams of water/methanol/chloroform and water/ethanol/ethyl acetate, both in the monophasic mixtures and in the liquid-liquid miscibility gap. Based on high performance thin-layer chromatography (HPTLC) to obtain the distribution of lipids classes, and gas chromatography coupled with a flame ionisation detector (GC/FID) to obtain fatty acid profiles, this greener solvents pair is found to be almost as effective as the classic methanol-chloroform couple in terms of efficiency and selectivity of lipids and non-lipid material. Moreover, using these bio-sourced solvents as an alternative system is shown to be as effective as the classical system in terms of the yield of lipids extracted from microorganism tissues, independently of their apparent hydrophilicity.

“Bligh and Dyer” and Folch Methods for Solid–Liquid–Liquid Extraction of Lipids from Microorganisms. Comprehension of Solvatation Mechanisms and towards Substitution with Alternative Solvents

PubMed Central

Breil, Cassandra; Abert Vian, Maryline; Zemb, Thomas; Kunz, Werner; Chemat, Farid

2017-01-01

Bligh and Dyer (B & D) or Folch procedures for the extraction and separation of lipids from microorganisms and biological tissues using chloroform/methanol/water have been used tens of thousands of times and are “gold standards” for the analysis of extracted lipids. Based on the Conductor-like Screening MOdel for realistic Solvatation (COSMO-RS), we select ethanol and ethyl acetate as being potentially suitable for the substitution of methanol and chloroform. We confirm this by performing solid–liquid extraction of yeast (Yarrowia lipolytica IFP29) and subsequent liquid–liquid partition—the two steps of routine extraction. For this purpose, we consider similar points in the ternary phase diagrams of water/methanol/chloroform and water/ethanol/ethyl acetate, both in the monophasic mixtures and in the liquid–liquid miscibility gap. Based on high performance thin-layer chromatography (HPTLC) to obtain the distribution of lipids classes, and gas chromatography coupled with a flame ionisation detector (GC/FID) to obtain fatty acid profiles, this greener solvents pair is found to be almost as effective as the classic methanol–chloroform couple in terms of efficiency and selectivity of lipids and non-lipid material. Moreover, using these bio-sourced solvents as an alternative system is shown to be as effective as the classical system in terms of the yield of lipids extracted from microorganism tissues, independently of their apparent hydrophilicity. PMID:28346372

Improved Small Baseline processing by means of CAESAR eigen-interferograms decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verde, Simona; Reale, Diego; Pauciullo, Antonio; Fornaro, Gianfranco

2018-05-01

The Component extrAction and sElection SAR (CAESAR) is a method for the selection and filtering of scattering mechanisms recently proposed in the multibaseline interferometric SAR framework. Its strength is related to the possibility to select and extract multiple dominant scattering mechanisms, even interfering in the same pixel, since the stage of the interferograms generation, and to carry out a decorrelation noise phase filtering. Up to now, the validation of CAESAR has been addressed in the framework of SAR Tomography for the model-based detection of Persistent Scatterers (PSs). In this paper we investigate the effectiveness related to the use of CAESAR eigen-interferograms in classical multi-baseline DInSAR processing, based on the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) strategy, typically adopted to extract large scale distributed deformation and atmospheric phase screen. Such components are also exploited for the calibration of the full resolution data for PS or tomographic analysis. By using COSMO-SKyMed (CSK) SAR data, it is demonstrated that dominant scattering component filtering effectively improves the monitoring of distributed spatially decorrelated areas (f.i. bare soil, rocks, etc.) and allows bringing to light man-made structures with dominant backscattering characteristics embedded in highly temporally decorrelated scenario, as isolated asphalt roads and block of buildings in non-urban areas. Moreover it is shown that, thanks to the CAESAR multiple scattering components separation, the layover mitigation in low-topography eigen-interferograms relieves Phase Unwrapping (PhU) errors in urban areas due to abrupt height variations.

Current status of validating operational model forecasts at the DWD site Lindenberg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyrich, F.; Heret, C.; Vogel, G.

2009-09-01

Based on long experience in the measurement of atmospheric boundary layer parameters, the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg / Richard - Aßmann-Observatory is well qualified to validate operational NWP results for this location. The validation activities cover a large range of time periods from single days or months up to several years and include much more quantities than generally used in areal verification techniques. They mainly focus on land surface and boundary layer processes which play an important role in the atmospheric forc-ing from the surface. Versatility and continuity of the database enable a comprehensive evaluation of the model behaviour under different meteorological conditions in order to esti-mate the accuracy of the physical parameterisations and to detect possible deficiencies in the predicted processes. The measurements from the boundary layer field site Falkenberg serve as reference data for various types of validation studies: 1. The operational boundary-layer measurements are used to identify and to document weather situations with large forecast errors which can then be analysed in more de-tail. Results from a case study will be presented where model deficiencies in the cor-rect simulation of the diurnal evolution of near-surface temperature under winter con-ditions over a closed snow cover where diagnosed. 2. Due to the synopsis of the boundary layer quantities based on monthly averaged di-urnal cycles systematic model deficiencies can be detected more clearly. Some dis-tinctive features found in the annual cycle (e.g. near-surface temperatures, turbulent heat fluxes and soil moisture) will be outlined. Further aspects are their different ap-pearance in the COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE models as well as the effects of start-ing time (00 or 12 UTC) on the prediction accuracy. 3. The evaluation of the model behaviour over several years provides additional insight into the impact of changes in the physical parameterisations, data assimilation or nu-merics on the meteorological quantities. The temporal development of the error char-acteristics of some near-surface weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint tem-perature, wind velocity) and of the energy fluxes at the surface will be discussed.

INSAR Images Hawaii Kilauea Volcano

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-03-10

This satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar image using COSMO-SkyMed radar data, depicts the relative deformation of Earth surface at Kilauea between Feb. 11, 2011 and March 7, 2011 two days following the start of the current eruption.

Operational Monitoring of Mines by COSMO-SkyMed PSP SAR Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costantini, Mario; Malvarosa, Fabio; Miniati, Federico; de Assis, Luciano Mozer

2016-08-01

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry is a powerful technology for detection and monitoring of slow ground surface movements. Monitoring of ground deformations in mining structures is an important application, particularly difficult because the scene changes with time. The persistent scatterer pair (PSP) approach, recently proposed to overcome some limitations of standard persistent scatter interferometry, proved to be effective also for mine monitoring. In this work, after resuming the main ideas of the PSP method, we describe the PSP measurements obtained from high- resolution X-band COSMO-SkyMed data over a large mining area in Minas Gerais state, Brazil. The outcomes demonstrate that dense and accurate ground deformation measurements can be obtained on the mining area and its structures (such as open pits, waste dumps, conveyor belts, water and tailings dams, etc.), achieving a consistent global view including also areas where field instruments are not installed.

Suitable utilization of woody plants for hibitation on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomita-Yokotani, Kaori; Baba, Keiichi; Suzuki, Toshisada; Kimura, Shunta; Sato, Seigo; Katoh, Hiroshi; Abe, Yusuke; Katayama, Takeshi

2016-07-01

We have been investigating the usefulness of woody plants for habitation on Mars. During our research, we have found that woody plants have several properties which can be utilized for therapy and materials for enrage and construction even on Mars. Japanese people traditionally believe that "Bonsai" have therapeudic properties. Trees can become carbon fuel which can be used as energy on Mars. Tree materials could be used as a tool in closed bio-ecosystems such as for the purification and/or separation of solutions in an environment in space. Here, we will show some results of their abilities, the water leakage and vacuum seal test, separation of solutions using carbon materials made from trees. At the initiation of this research, we named the trees used as material for the experiment related to space environments "CosmoBon", small bonsai tree. To establish our research, as the first step, we will try to do the experiment using "CosmoBon".

Application of a COSMO Mesoscale Model to Assess the Influence of Forest Cover Changes on Regional Weather Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olchev, A.; Rozinkina, I.; Kuzmina, E.; Nikitin, M.; Rivin, G. S.

2017-12-01

Modern changes in land use and forest cover have a significant influence on local, regional, and global weather and climate conditions. In this study, the mesoscale model COSMO is used to estimate the possible influence of forest cover change in the central part of the East European Plain on regional weather conditions. The "model region" of the study is surrounded by geographical coordinates 55° and 59°N and 28° and 37°E and situated in the central part of a large modeling domain (50° - 70° N and 15° 55° E), covering almost the entire East European Plain in Northern Eurasia. The forests cover about 50% of the area of the "model region". The modeling study includes 3 main numerical experiments. The first assumes total deforestation of the "model region" and replacement of forests by grasslands. The second is represented by afforestation of the "model region." In the third, weather conditions are simulated with present land use and vegetation structures of the "model region." Output of numerical experiments is at 13.2 km grid resolution, and the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis (with 6-h resolution in time and 0.75°×0.75° in space) is used to quantify initial and boundary conditions. Numerical experiments for the warm period of 2010 taken as an example show that deforestation and afforestation processes in the selected region can lead to significant changes in weather conditions. Deforestation processes in summer conditions can result in increased air temperature and wind speed, reduction of precipitation, lower clouds, and relative humidity. The afforestation process can result in opposite effects (decreased air temperature, increased precipitation, higher air humidity and fog frequency, and strengthened storm winds). Maximum meteorological changes under forest cover changes are projected for the summer months (July and August). It was also shown that changes of some meteorological characteristics (e.g., air temperature) is observed in the "model region" only, and changes in precipitation amount are seen in the entire territory of the East European Plain, even in areas which are a great distance from the boundaries of the "model region." The study was supported by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (14-14-00956).

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be either an intermediate forecast between the extremes of the ensemble spread or a manually selected forecast based on a meteorologists advice. 2. Downstream catchments with low influence of weather forecast In downstream catchments with strong human impact on discharge (e.g. by reservoir operation) and large influence of upstream gauge observation quality on forecast quality, the 'overall error' may in most cases be larger than the combination of the 'model error' and an ensemble spread. Therefore, the overall forecast uncertainty bounds are calculated differently: a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. Here, additionally the corresponding inflow hydrograph from all upstream catchments must be used. b) As for an upstream catchment, the uncertainty range is determined by combination of 'model error' and the ensemble member forecasts c) In addition, the 'overall error' is superimposed on the 'lead forecast'. For reasons of consistency, the lead forecast must be based on the same meteorological forecast in the downstream and all upstream catchments. d) From the resulting two uncertainty ranges (one from the ensemble forecast and 'model error', one from the 'lead forecast' and 'overall error'), the envelope is taken as the most prudent uncertainty range. In sum, the uncertainty associated with each forecast run is calculated and communicated to the public in the form of 10% and 90% percentiles. As in part I of this study, the methodology as well as the useful- or uselessness of the resulting uncertainty ranges will be presented and discussed by typical examples.

Advanced Corrections for InSAR Using GPS and Numerical Weather Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cossu, F.; Foster, J. H.; Amelung, F.; Varugu, B. K.; Businger, S.; Cherubini, T.

2017-12-01

We present results from an investigation into the application of numerical weather models for generating tropospheric correction fields for Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). We apply the technique to data acquired from a UAVSAR campaign as well as from the CosmoSkyMed satellites. The complex spatial and temporal changes in the atmospheric propagation delay of the radar signal remain the single biggest factor limiting InSAR's potential for hazard monitoring and mitigation. A new generation of InSAR systems is being built and launched, and optimizing the science and hazard applications of these systems requires advanced methodologies to mitigate tropospheric noise. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate a 900 m spatial resolution atmospheric models covering the Big Island of Hawaii and an even higher, 300 m resolution grid over the Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes. By comparing a range of approaches, from the simplest, using reanalyses based on typically available meteorological observations, through to the "kitchen-sink" approach of assimilating all relevant data sets into our custom analyses, we examine the impact of the additional data sets on the atmospheric models and their effectiveness in correcting InSAR data. We focus particularly on the assimilation of information from the more than 60 GPS sites in the island. We ingest zenith tropospheric delay estimates from these sites directly into the WRF analyses, and also perform double-difference tomography using the phase residuals from the GPS processing to robustly incorporate heterogeneous information from the GPS data into the atmospheric models. We assess our performance through comparisons of our atmospheric models with external observations not ingested into the model, and through the effectiveness of the derived phase screens in reducing InSAR variance. Comparison of the InSAR data, our atmospheric analyses, and assessments of the active local and mesoscale meteorological processes allows us to assess under what conditions the technique works most effectively. This work will produce best-practice recommendations for the use of weather models for InSAR correction, and inform efforts to design a global strategy for the NISAR mission, for both low-latency and definitive atmospheric correction products.

Quantum Chemically Estimated Abraham Solute Parameters Using Multiple Solvent-Water Partition Coefficients and Molecular Polarizability.

PubMed

Liang, Yuzhen; Xiong, Ruichang; Sandler, Stanley I; Di Toro, Dominic M

2017-09-05

Polyparameter Linear Free Energy Relationships (pp-LFERs), also called Linear Solvation Energy Relationships (LSERs), are used to predict many environmentally significant properties of chemicals. A method is presented for computing the necessary chemical parameters, the Abraham parameters (AP), used by many pp-LFERs. It employs quantum chemical calculations and uses only the chemical's molecular structure. The method computes the Abraham E parameter using density functional theory computed molecular polarizability and the Clausius-Mossotti equation relating the index refraction to the molecular polarizability, estimates the Abraham V as the COSMO calculated molecular volume, and computes the remaining AP S, A, and B jointly with a multiple linear regression using sixty-five solvent-water partition coefficients computed using the quantum mechanical COSMO-SAC solvation model. These solute parameters, referred to as Quantum Chemically estimated Abraham Parameters (QCAP), are further adjusted by fitting to experimentally based APs using QCAP parameters as the independent variables so that they are compatible with existing Abraham pp-LFERs. QCAP and adjusted QCAP for 1827 neutral chemicals are included. For 24 solvent-water systems including octanol-water, predicted log solvent-water partition coefficients using adjusted QCAP have the smallest root-mean-square errors (RMSEs, 0.314-0.602) compared to predictions made using APs estimated using the molecular fragment based method ABSOLV (0.45-0.716). For munition and munition-like compounds, adjusted QCAP has much lower RMSE (0.860) than does ABSOLV (4.45) which essentially fails for these compounds.

Heterogeneous Embedded Real-Time Systems Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-12-01

AFRL-IF-RS-TR-2003-290 Final Technical Report December 2003 HETEROGENEOUS EMBEDDED REAL - TIME SYSTEMS ENVIRONMENT Integrated...HETEROGENEOUS EMBEDDED REAL - TIME SYSTEMS ENVIRONMENT 6. AUTHOR(S) Cosmo Castellano and James Graham 5. FUNDING NUMBERS C - F30602-97-C-0259

Solvent effects on adsorption of CO over CuCl(1 1 1) surface: A density functional theory study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Riguang; Ling, Lixia; Wang, Baojun; Huang, Wei

2010-09-01

DFT calculations have been performed to investigate the effect of dielectric responses of the solvent environment on the CO adsorption over CuCl(1 1 1) surface by using COSMO (conductor-like solvent model) model in Dmol 3. Different dielectric constants, including vacuum, liquid paraffin, methylene chloride, methanol and water solution, are considered. The effects of solvent model on the structural parameters, adsorption energies and vibrational frequency of CO adsorption over CuCl(1 1 1) surface have been investigated. The calculation results suggest that solvent effects can improve the stability of CO adsorption and reduce the intensity of C-O bond, which might mean that solvent is in favor of C-O bond activation and improve the reaction activity of oxidative carbonylation in a slurry reactor.

Scale Dependend Investigations of the Dynamic State Index Concerning the QG-Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Annette; Névir, Peter

2017-04-01

The Dynamic State Index (DSI) indicates local deviations of the atmospheric flow field from a steady wind solution based on the primitive equations under adiabatic and inviscid conditions. We represent generalizations of the DSI for reduced models given by the quasi-geostrophic theory and the Rossby-model. By applying a Fourier transformation to the circumpolar geopotential height field we demonstrate the characteristic dipole structure of the DSI-field related to atmospheric waves. Furthermore, by applying data of the COSMO-DE model of the German Weather Service (DWD), we compare the vertical profile of all three DSI-parameters concerning classes with and without precipitation. We work out that the relation to precipitation decreases with increasing approximation, but in all scales, it can be shown that the DSI is highly correlated to diabatic processes.

Microphysical processing of aerosol particles in orographic clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pousse-Nottelmann, S.; Zubler, E. M.; Lohmann, U.

2015-08-01

An explicit and detailed treatment of cloud-borne particles allowing for the consideration of aerosol cycling in clouds has been implemented into COSMO-Model, the regional weather forecast and climate model of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO). The effects of aerosol scavenging, cloud microphysical processing and regeneration upon cloud evaporation on the aerosol population and on subsequent cloud formation are investigated. For this, two-dimensional idealized simulations of moist flow over two bell-shaped mountains were carried out varying the treatment of aerosol scavenging and regeneration processes for a warm-phase and a mixed-phase orographic cloud. The results allowed us to identify different aerosol cycling mechanisms. In the simulated non-precipitating warm-phase cloud, aerosol mass is incorporated into cloud droplets by activation scavenging and released back to the atmosphere upon cloud droplet evaporation. In the mixed-phase cloud, a first cycle comprises cloud droplet activation and evaporation via the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process. A second cycle includes below-cloud scavenging by precipitating snow particles and snow sublimation and is connected to the first cycle via the riming process which transfers aerosol mass from cloud droplets to snowflakes. In the simulated mixed-phase cloud, only a negligible part of the total aerosol mass is incorporated into ice crystals. Sedimenting snowflakes reaching the surface remove aerosol mass from the atmosphere. The results show that aerosol processing and regeneration lead to a vertical redistribution of aerosol mass and number. Thereby, the processes impact the total aerosol number and mass and additionally alter the shape of the aerosol size distributions by enhancing the internally mixed/soluble Aitken and accumulation mode and generating coarse-mode particles. Concerning subsequent cloud formation at the second mountain, accounting for aerosol processing and regeneration increases the cloud droplet number concentration with possible implications for the ice crystal number concentration.

Evaluation of a High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohlwein, C.; Wahl, S.; Keller, J. D.; Bollmeyer, C.

2014-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers 6 years (2007-2012) and is currently extended to 16 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

A method to derive vegetation distribution maps for pollen dispersion models using birch as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauling, A.; Rotach, M. W.; Gehrig, R.; Clot, B.

2012-09-01

Detailed knowledge of the spatial distribution of sources is a crucial prerequisite for the application of pollen dispersion models such as, for example, COSMO-ART (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling - Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases). However, this input is not available for the allergy-relevant species such as hazel, alder, birch, grass or ragweed. Hence, plant distribution datasets need to be derived from suitable sources. We present an approach to produce such a dataset from existing sources using birch as an example. The basic idea is to construct a birch dataset using a region with good data coverage for calibration and then to extrapolate this relationship to a larger area by using land use classes. We use the Swiss forest inventory (1 km resolution) in combination with a 74-category land use dataset that covers the non-forested areas of Switzerland as well (resolution 100 m). Then we assign birch density categories of 0%, 0.1%, 0.5% and 2.5% to each of the 74 land use categories. The combination of this derived dataset with the birch distribution from the forest inventory yields a fairly accurate birch distribution encompassing entire Switzerland. The land use categories of the Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC2000; Global Land Cover 2000 database, 2003, European Commission, Joint Research Centre; resolution 1 km) are then calibrated with the Swiss dataset in order to derive a Europe-wide birch distribution dataset and aggregated onto the 7 km COSMO-ART grid. This procedure thus assumes that a certain GLC2000 land use category has the same birch density wherever it may occur in Europe. In order to reduce the strict application of this crucial assumption, the birch density distribution as obtained from the previous steps is weighted using the mean Seasonal Pollen Index (SPI; yearly sums of daily pollen concentrations). For future improvement, region-specific birch densities for the GLC2000 categories could be integrated into the mapping procedure.

Calibration of limited-area ensemble precipitation forecasts for hydrological predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diomede, Tommaso; Marsigli, Chiara; Montani, Andrea; Nerozzi, Fabrizio; Paccagnella, Tiziana

2015-04-01

The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of calibration for limited-area ensemble precipitation forecasts, to be used for driving discharge predictions up to 5 days in advance. A reforecast dataset, which spans 30 years, based on the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS) was used for testing the calibration strategy. Three calibration techniques were applied: quantile-to-quantile mapping, linear regression, and analogs. The performance of these methodologies was evaluated in terms of statistical scores for the precipitation forecasts operationally provided by COSMO-LEPS in the years 2003-2007 over Germany, Switzerland, and the Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy). The analog-based method seemed to be preferred because of its capability of correct position errors and spread deficiencies. A suitable spatial domain for the analog search can help to handle model spatial errors as systematic errors. However, the performance of the analog-based method may degrade in cases where a limited training dataset is available. A sensitivity test on the length of the training dataset over which to perform the analog search has been performed. The quantile-to-quantile mapping and linear regression methods were less effective, mainly because the forecast-analysis relation was not so strong for the available training dataset. A comparison between the calibration based on the deterministic reforecast and the calibration based on the full operational ensemble used as training dataset has been considered, with the aim to evaluate whether reforecasts are really worthy for calibration, given that their computational cost is remarkable. The verification of the calibration process was then performed by coupling ensemble precipitation forecasts with a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This test was carried out for a medium-sized catchment located in Emilia-Romagna, showing a beneficial impact of the analog-based method on the reduction of missed events for discharge predictions.

Forecasting skills of the ensemble hydro-meteorological system for the Po river floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricciardi, Giuseppe; Montani, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Pecora, Silvano; Tonelli, Fabrizio

2013-04-01

The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extreme hydrological events, including floods, flash floods and droughts, are expected to become more severe in the next future due to climate change, and related ground effects are linked both with environmental and social resilience. A Warning Operational Center (WOC) for hydrological event management was created in Emilia Romagna region. In the last years, the WOC faced challenges in legislation, organization, technology and economics, achieving improvements in forecasting skill and information dissemination. Since 2005, an operational forecasting and modelling system for flood modelling and forecasting has been implemented, aimed at supporting and coordinating flood control and emergency management on the whole Po basin. This system, referred to as FEWSPo, has also taken care of environmental aspects of flood forecast. The FEWSPo system has reached a very high level of complexity, due to the combination of three different hydrological-hydraulic chains (HEC-HMS/RAS - MIKE11 NAM/HD, Topkapi/Sobek), with several meteorological inputs (forecasted - COSMOI2, COSMOI7, COSMO-LEPS among others - and observed). In this hydrological and meteorological ensemble the management of the relative predictive uncertainties, which have to be established and communicated to decision makers, is a debated scientific and social challenge. Real time activities face professional, modelling and technological aspects but are also strongly interrelated with organization and human aspects. The authors will report a case study using the operational flood forecast hydro-meteorological ensemble, provided by the MIKE11 chain fed by COSMO_LEPS EQPF. The basic aim of the proposed approach is to analyse limits and opportunities of the long term forecast (with a lead time ranging from 3 to 5 days), for the implementation of low cost actions, also looking for a well informed decision making and the improvement of flood preparedness and crisis management for basins greater than 1.000 km2.

Dust sources and atmospheric circulation in concert controlling Saharan dust emission and transport towards the Western Mediterranean Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepanski, Kerstin; Mallet, Marc; Heinold, Bernd; Ulrich, Max

2017-04-01

Dust transported from north African source regions towards Europe is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the Mediterranean region, a geographic region that is in part densely populated. Besides its impacts on the atmospheric radiation budget, dust suspended in the atmosphere results in reduced air quality, which is generally sensed as a reduction in quality of life. Furthermore, the exposure to dust aerosols enhances the prevalence of respiratory diseases, which reduces the general human wellbeing, and ultimately results in an increased loss of working hours due to illness and hospitalization rates. Characteristics of the atmospheric dust life cycle that determine dust transport will be presented with focus on the ChArMEx special observation period in June and July 2013 using the atmosphere-dust model COSMO-MUSCAT (COSMO: Consortium for Small-scale MOdeling; MUSCAT: MUltiScale Chemistry Aerosol Transport Model). Modes of atmospheric circulation were identified from empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the geopotential height at 850 hPa for summer 2013 and compared to EOFs calculated from 1979-2015 ERA-Interim reanalysis. Generally, two different phases were identified. They are related to the eastward propagation of the subtropical ridge into the Mediterranean basin, the position of the Saharan heat low, and the predominant Iberian heat low. The relation of these centres of action illustrates a dipole pattern for enhanced (reduced) dust emission fluxes, stronger (weaker) meridional dust transport, and consequent increase (decrease) atmospheric dust concentrations and deposition fluxes. In concert, the results from this study aim at illustrating the relevance of knowing the dust source locations in concert with the atmospheric circulation. Ultimately, this study addresses the question of what is finally transported towards the Mediterranean basin and Europe from which source regions - and fostered by which atmospheric circulation pattern. Outcomes from this study contribute to the understanding of varying atmospheric mineral dust contributions to the aerosol burden affecting populated areas around Europe.

Uomo, cosmo, cultura: l'Umanesimo di Gerberto

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paladino, Laura C.

Gerbert d'Aurillac, astronomer, musician, logical, Pope, is an outstanding figure of pre-humanist: many aspects of his intellectual activity, science and literature, and his role as religious and Pope put him as an example of a search that wants to put the man in the middle, his intelligence and creativity, and that wants to achieve a real synthesis between Faith and Science. At the dawn of the third millennium, it is strongly present the model of the Pope who drove the Church over the year 1000, an authoritative example that we like to discover, and to whom we like to pay attention and relevance.

Detailed climate-change projections for urban land-use change and green-house gas increases for Belgium with COSMO-CLM coupled to TERRA_URB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Hendrik; Vanden Broucke, Sam; van Lipzig, Nicole; Demuzere, Matthias

2016-04-01

Recent research clearly show that climate modelling at high resolution - which resolve the deep convection, the detailed orography and land-use including urbanization - leads to better modelling performance with respect to temperatures, the boundary-layer, clouds and precipitation. The increasing computational power enables the climate research community to address climate-change projections with higher accuracy and much more detail. In the framework of the CORDEX.be project aiming for coherent high-resolution micro-ensemble projections for Belgium employing different GCMs and RCMs, the KU Leuven contributes by means of the downscaling of EC-EARTH global climate model projections (provided by the Royal Meteorological Institute of the Netherlands) to the Belgian domain. The downscaling is obtained with regional climate simulations at 12.5km resolution over Europe (CORDEX-EU domain) and at 2.8km resolution over Belgium (CORDEX.be domain) using COSMO-CLM coupled to urban land-surface parametrization TERRA_URB. This is done for the present-day (1975-2005) and future (2040 → 2070 and 2070 → 2100). In these high-resolution runs, both GHG changes (in accordance to RCP8.5) and urban land-use changes (in accordance to a business-as-usual urban expansion scenario) are taken into account. Based on these simulations, it is shown how climate-change statistics are modified when going from coarse resolution modelling to high-resolution modelling. The climate-change statistics of particular interest are the changes in number of extreme precipitation events and extreme heat waves in cities. Hereby, it is futher investigated for the robustness of the signal change between the course and high-resolution and whether a (statistical) translation is possible. The different simulations also allow to address the relative impact and synergy between the urban expansion and increased GHG on the climate-change statistics. Hereby, it is investigated for which climate-change statistics the urban heat island and urban expansion is relevant, and to what extent the urban expansion can be included in the coarse-to-high resolution translation.

Status of the seamless coupled modelling system ICON-ART

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Bernhard; Rieger, Daniel; Schroeter, Jenniffer; Bischoff-Gauss, Inge; Deetz, Konrad; Eckstein, Johannes; Foerstner, Jochen; Gasch, Philipp; Ruhnke, Roland; Vogel, Heike; Walter, Carolin; Weimer, Michael

2016-04-01

The integrated modelling framework ICON-ART [1] (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic - Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) extends the numerical weather prediction modelling system ICON by modules for gas phase chemistry, aerosol dynamics and related feedback processes. The nonhydrostatic global modelling system ICON [2] is a joint development of German Weather Service (DWD) and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) with local grid refinement down to grid sizes of a few kilometers. It will be used for numerical weather prediction, climate projections and for research purposes. Since January 2016 ICON runs operationally at DWD for weather forecast on the global scale with a grid size of 13 km. Analogous to its predecessor COSMO-ART [3], ICON-ART is designed to account for feedback processes between meteorological variables and atmospheric trace substances. Up to now, ICON-ART contains the dispersion of volcanic ash, radioactive tracers, sea salt aerosol, as well as ozone-depleting stratospheric trace substances [1]. Recently, we have extended ICON-ART by a mineral dust emission scheme with global applicability and nucleation parameterizations which allow the cloud microphysics to explicitly account for prognostic aerosol distributions. Also very recently an emission scheme for volatile organic compounds was included. We present first results of the impact of natural aerosol (i.e. sea salt aerosol and mineral dust) on cloud properties and precipitation as well as the interaction of primary emitted particles with radiation. Ongoing developments are the coupling with a radiation scheme to calculate the photolysis frequencies, a coupling with the RADMKA (1) chemistry and first steps to include isotopologues of water. Examples showing the capabilities of the model system will be presented. This includes a simulation of the transport of ozone depleting short-lived trace gases from the surface into the stratosphere as well as of long-lived tracers. [1] Rieger, D., et al. (2015), ICON-ART - A new online-coupled model system from the global to regional scale, Geosci. Model Dev., doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1659-2015. [2] Zängl, G., et al. (2014), The ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) modelling framework of DWD MPI-M: Description of the non-hydrostatic dynamical core. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2378 [3] Vogel, B., et al. (2009), The comprehensive model system COSMO-ART - Radiative impact of aerosol on the state of the atmosphere on the regional scale, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 8661-8680

UV-vis light transmittance through tinted contact lenses and the effect of color on values.

PubMed

Osuagwu, Uchechukwu L; Ogbuehi, Kelechi C

2014-06-01

To assess the transmittance, in the 200-700nm electromagnetic radiation spectrum, by popularly used tinted soft contact lenses (CLs). The spectra transmittances of ultraviolet (UV)-blocking (I Day Acuvue Define, Freshlook ONE DAY) and non-UV-blocking (Durasoft 3, Tutti, and NeoCosmo) tinted soft CLs were tested. The transmittance of each lens, including nine different colors of Freshlook CL was recorded on spectrophotometer, and the data used to also calculate a UV protection factor (PF) for each lens brand tested, with a higher value indicating a higher level of protection. The UV-blocking CLs significantly reduced UVC, UVB & UVA transmission and thereby meet the American National Standards Institution standard for class 2 UV blockers: a maximum of 30% transmittance of UVA and 5% transmittance of UVB wavelengths. In contrast, the Durasoft 3, Tutti, and NeoCosmo CLs demonstrated negligible UV-blockage. The Acuvue Define CL offered the greatest protection from UVC (PF=69) and UVB (PF=55), but with only 35% luminous transmittance, while the Freshlook CL (especially gemstone green) offered the best protection from UVA (PF=24) and showed about 55% translucency. Overall, the UV-blocking CLs performed equally well across the UV spectrum. Different colors of Freshlook CL transmitted statistically and clinically significantly different amounts of visible light but similar amounts of UVR. Freshlook and Acuvue Define CLs which are designated as UV-blockers significantly reduced UVR transmission to safe levels whereas Tutti, NeoCosmo and Durasoft 3 did not. Transmission within the Freshlook CL family was more dependent on color in the visible light spectrum, but not in the UV-spectrum, where the gemstone green performing best among the tested colors. Copyright © 2013 British Contact Lens Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CosmoQuest: Virtual Star Parties as a Conduit to Citizen Science Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Scott; Gugliucci, N. E.; Gay, P. L.; Amateur Astronomer Team; Commentator Team

2013-01-01

CosmoQuest has created an environment that actively engages the public through online star parties while building a growing virtual research center that allows individuals anywhere in the world to participate in and contribute to scientific research. Utilizing the infrastructure of Google+ and YouTube, CosmoQuest has brought optical observational astronomy into homes across the world. Every week astronomers - amateur and professional - meet to share live sky images and to discuss the science behind their beauty during Virtual Star parties. A wide array of optics and digital detectors from varied locations collaborate in a fashion not possible in the standard public star party. Every viewer is able to virtually look through the imaging telescope simultaneously while the equipment owner doesn’t need to worry about accidental mishandling by the public. Digital cameras and CCDs also allow longer exposures of deep-sky objects, something not typical in a standard star party event. Our diversity of equipment - ranging from hand-guided Dobsonian telescopes to 16” Schmidt-Cassegrain telescopes on Paramounts - give viewers the opportunity to experience the sky through different systems. Additional Star Parties focus on special astronomical events, such as eclipses and transits. The annular eclipse of 20 May, 2012 brought together astronomers, space enthusiasts and a curious public into a Google+ Hangout On Air to celebrate the event while advocating safe observing methods and explaining the science behind the phenomenon. Public photos of the eclipse were shared live in the broadcast while video of the event was streamed for thousands of viewers to enjoy. Other special event star parties have focused on the Super Moon, Eros Opposition, and the Venus Transit. In this poster we review the technology behind star parties and the reach of these events.

Vessel Classification in Cosmo-Skymed SAR Data Using Hierarchical Feature Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makedonas, A.; Theoharatos, C.; Tsagaris, V.; Anastasopoulos, V.; Costicoglou, S.

2015-04-01

SAR based ship detection and classification are important elements of maritime monitoring applications. Recently, high-resolution SAR data have opened new possibilities to researchers for achieving improved classification results. In this work, a hierarchical vessel classification procedure is presented based on a robust feature extraction and selection scheme that utilizes scale, shape and texture features in a hierarchical way. Initially, different types of feature extraction algorithms are implemented in order to form the utilized feature pool, able to represent the structure, material, orientation and other vessel type characteristics. A two-stage hierarchical feature selection algorithm is utilized next in order to be able to discriminate effectively civilian vessels into three distinct types, in COSMO-SkyMed SAR images: cargos, small ships and tankers. In our analysis, scale and shape features are utilized in order to discriminate smaller types of vessels present in the available SAR data, or shape specific vessels. Then, the most informative texture and intensity features are incorporated in order to be able to better distinguish the civilian types with high accuracy. A feature selection procedure that utilizes heuristic measures based on features' statistical characteristics, followed by an exhaustive research with feature sets formed by the most qualified features is carried out, in order to discriminate the most appropriate combination of features for the final classification. In our analysis, five COSMO-SkyMed SAR data with 2.2m x 2.2m resolution were used to analyse the detailed characteristics of these types of ships. A total of 111 ships with available AIS data were used in the classification process. The experimental results show that this method has good performance in ship classification, with an overall accuracy reaching 83%. Further investigation of additional features and proper feature selection is currently in progress.

Ground Subsidence Along Shanghai Metro Line 6 BY PS-InSAR Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Liao, M.; Li, N.

2018-04-01

With the rapid development of urban economy, convenient, safe, and efficient urban rail transit has become the preferred method for people to travel. In order to ensure the safety and sustainable development of urban rail transit, the PS-InSAR technology with millimeter deformation measurement accuracy has been widely applied to monitor the deformation of urban rail transit. In this paper, 32 scenes of COSMO-SkyMed descending images and 23 scenes of Envisat ASAR images covering the Shanghai Metro Line 6 acquired from 2008 to 2010 are used to estimate the average deformation rate along line-of-sight (LOS) direction by PS-InSAR method. The experimental results show that there are two main subsidence areas along the Shanghai Metro Line 6, which are located between Wuzhou Avenue Station to Wulian Road Station and West Gaoke Road Station to Gaoqing Road Station. Between Wuzhou Avenue Station and Wulian Road Station, the maximum displacement rate in the vertical direction of COSMO-SkyMed images is -9.92 mm/year, and the maximum displacement rate in the vertical direction of Envisat ASAR images is -8.53 mm/year. From the West Gaoke Road Station to the Gaoqing Road Station, the maximum displacement rate in the vertical direction of COSMO-SkyMed images is -15.53 mm/year, and the maximum displacement rate in the vertical direction of Envisat ASAR images is -17.9 mm/year. The results show that the ground deformation rates obtained by two SAR platforms with different wavelengths, different sensors and different incident angles have good consistence with each other, and also that of spirit leveling.

Simulation of the dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull plume over Europe with COSMO-ART in the operational mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, H.; Förstner, J.; Vogel, B.; Hanisch, T.; Mühr, B.; Schättler, U.; Schad, T.

2013-05-01

An extended version of the German operational weather forecast model was used to simulate the ash dispersion during the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull. Sensitivity runs show the ability of the model to simulate thin ash layers when an increased vertical resolution is used. Calibration of the model results with measured data allows for a quantitative forecast of the ash concentration. An independent comparison of the simulated number concentration of 3 μm particles and observations reveals nearly perfect agreement. However, this perfect agreement could only be reached after modification of the emissions. As an operational forecast was launched every six hours, a time-lagged ensemble was obtained. Hence, the probability of violation of a certain threshold can be calculated. This is valuable information for the forecasters advising the organizations responsible for the closing of the airspace.

Solvent effects on the relative stability of radicals derived from artemisinin: DFT study using the PCM/COSMO approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araujo, M. T. De; Carneiro, J. W. De M.; Taranto, A. G.

The PCM/COSMO approach was employed to calculate the relative stability of radicals derived from the antimalarial artemisinin. The calculations were performed in polar (water) and apolar (THF) solvent at the density functional level [B3LYP/6-31g(d)]. Relative stabilities were calculated by means of isodesmic equations using artemisinin as reference. Replacement of oxygen atoms by CH2 unities was found to decrease the relative stability of the anionic radical intermediates. The degree of destabilization is reduced in the presence of solvent, being less in water than in THF. The dipole moment and the corresponding solvation free energies of these species modulate this effect. Derivatives with inverted stereochemistry are more stable than those with the artemisinin-like stereochemistry, although the solvent attenuates this stabilization effect. As was found in the in vacuo calculations, the radicals centered on carbon are always more stable than the corresponding radicals centered on oxygen.

Assessing The Response Of Alpine Natura 2000 Habitat Changes By Using Dual Polarized (VV/VH) COSMO-SkyMed Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spindler, N.; Polychronaki, A.; Notarnicola, C.

2013-12-01

Grasslands cover nearly one quarter of the earth's surface. They are not only a habitat for a diversity of species and therefore an important focus in the Natura 2000 framework but also a crucial factor in the scope of food security and the associated crop estimation as a forage base. Since both topics are strongly linked they are addressed in this study with two main objectives using weather independent satellite data. Initially, we aimed to understand the backscatter mechanism of COSMO-SkyMed X-band dual pol using two different incidence angles for selected Natura conservation sites. In a second step, we then related the backscatter coefficients to a MODIS LAI product. Results indicated a separation potential for different Natura 2000 grasslands types with a difference of 2dB. The associated backscatter signal with the LAI data demonstrated a good correlation values for natural grasslands using low incidence angles.

Rapid Damage Mapping for the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha Earthquake using Synthetic Aperture Radar Data from COSMO-SkyMed and ALOS-2 Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, S. H.; Hudnut, K. W.; Owen, S. E.; Webb, F.; Simons, M.; Macdonald, A.; Sacco, P.; Gurrola, E. M.; Manipon, G.; Liang, C.; Fielding, E. J.; Milillo, P.; Hua, H.; Coletta, A.

2015-12-01

The April 25, 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake caused more than 8,000 fatalities and widespread building damage in central Nepal. Four days after the earthquake, the Italian Space Agency's (ASI's) COSMO-SkyMed Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite acquired data over Kathmandu area. Nine days after the earthquake, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's (JAXA's) ALOS-2 SAR satellite covered larger area. Using these radar observations, we rapidly produced damage proxy maps derived from temporal changes in Interferometric SAR (InSAR) coherence. These maps were qualitatively validated through comparison with independent damage analyses by National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and the UNITAR's (United Nations Institute for Training and Research's) Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT), and based on our own visual inspection of DigitalGlobe's WorldView optical pre- vs. post-event imagery. Our maps were quickly released to responding agencies and the public, and used for damage assessment, determining inspection/imaging priorities, and reconnaissance fieldwork.

Structural, spectroscopic and theoretical studies of dimethylphenyl betaine complex with two molecules of 2,6-dichloro-4-nitro-phenol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szafran, Mirosław; Komasa, Anna; Ostrowska, Kinga; Katrusiak, Andrzej; Dega-Szafran, Zofia

2015-02-01

The 1:2 complex (1) of dimethylphenyl betaine (DMPB) with two molecules of 2,6-dichloro-4-nitro-phenol (DCNP) was prepared and characterized by X-ray diffraction, B3LYP/6-311++G(d,p) and B3LYP-D3/6-311++G(d,p)calculations, FTIR and NMR spectroscopies. The crystal is monoclinic, space group P21/c with Z = 4. The protons at the oxygen atoms of phenols are bonded to each oxygen atoms of the DMPB carboxylate group by two nonequivalent H-bonds with the Osbnd H⋯O distances of 2.473(5) and 2.688(4) Å. Both H-bonds in the optimized structures 2 (in vacuum), 3 (in DMSO solution) and dispersion-correlated functional (D3) 4 (in vacuum) are comparable and are slightly shorter than O(6)sbnd H(O6)⋯O(2) in the crystal. The FTIR spectrum of 1 shows a broad absorption in the 3400-2000 cm-1 region corresponding to a longer hydrogen bond and a broad absorption in the 1800-500 cm-1 region caused by the shorter H-bond. The relations between the experimental 13C and 1H chemical shifts (δexp) of the investigated compound 1 in DMSO solution and GIAO/B3LYP/6-311++G(d,p) magnetic isotropic shielding constants (σcalc) obtained by using the screening solvation model (COSMO) for 3 are linear and reproduce well the experimental chemical shifts described by the equation: δexp = a + b σcalc.

Explicit treatment of active-site waters enhances quantum mechanical/implicit solvent scoring: Inhibition of CDK2 by new pyrazolo[1,5-a]pyrimidines.

PubMed

Hylsová, Michaela; Carbain, Benoit; Fanfrlík, Jindřich; Musilová, Lenka; Haldar, Susanta; Köprülüoğlu, Cemal; Ajani, Haresh; Brahmkshatriya, Pathik S; Jorda, Radek; Kryštof, Vladimír; Hobza, Pavel; Echalier, Aude; Paruch, Kamil; Lepšík, Martin

2017-01-27

We present comprehensive testing of solvent representation in quantum mechanics (QM)-based scoring of protein-ligand affinities. To this aim, we prepared 21 new inhibitors of cyclin-dependent kinase 2 (CDK2) with the pyrazolo[1,5-a]pyrimidine core, whose activities spanned three orders of magnitude. The crystal structure of a potent inhibitor bound to the active CDK2/cyclin A complex revealed that the biphenyl substituent at position 5 of the pyrazolo[1,5-a]pyrimidine scaffold was located in a previously unexplored pocket and that six water molecules resided in the active site. Using molecular dynamics, protein-ligand interactions and active-site water H-bond networks as well as thermodynamics were probed. Thereafter, all the inhibitors were scored by the QM approach utilizing the COSMO implicit solvent model. Such a standard treatment failed to produce a correlation with the experiment (R 2  = 0.49). However, the addition of the active-site waters resulted in significant improvement (R 2  = 0.68). The activities of the compounds could thus be interpreted by taking into account their specific noncovalent interactions with CDK2 and the active-site waters. In summary, using a combination of several experimental and theoretical approaches we demonstrate that the inclusion of explicit solvent effects enhance QM/COSMO scoring to produce a reliable structure-activity relationship with physical insights. More generally, this approach is envisioned to contribute to increased accuracy of the computational design of novel inhibitors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Intrinsic alignments of galaxies in the EAGLE and cosmo-OWLS simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velliscig, Marco; Cacciato, Marcello; Schaye, Joop; Hoekstra, Henk; Bower, Richard G.; Crain, Robert A.; van Daalen, Marcel P.; Furlong, Michelle; McCarthy, I. G.; Schaller, Matthieu; Theuns, Tom

2015-12-01

We report results for the alignments of galaxies in the EAGLE and cosmo-OWLS hydrodynamical cosmological simulations as a function of galaxy separation (-1 ≤ log10(r/[ h-1 Mpc]) ≤ 2) and halo mass (10.7 ≤ log10(M200/[h-1 M⊙]) ≤ 15). We focus on two classes of alignments: the orientations of galaxies with respect to either the directions to, or the orientations of, surrounding galaxies. We find that the strength of the alignment is a strongly decreasing function of the distance between galaxies. For galaxies hosted by the most massive haloes in our simulations the alignment can remain significant up to ˜100 Mpc. Galaxies hosted by more massive haloes show stronger alignment. At a fixed halo mass, more aspherical or prolate galaxies exhibit stronger alignments. The spatial distribution of satellites is anisotropic and significantly aligned with the major axis of the main host halo. The major axes of satellite galaxies, when all stars are considered, are preferentially aligned towards the centre of the main host halo. The predicted projected direction-orientation alignment, ɛg+(rp), is in broad agreement with recent observations. We find that the orientation-orientation alignment is weaker than the orientation-direction alignment on all scales. Overall, the strength of galaxy alignments depends strongly on the subset of stars that are used to measure the orientations of galaxies and it is always weaker than the alignment of dark matter haloes. Thus, alignment models that use halo orientation as a direct proxy for galaxy orientation overestimate the impact of intrinsic galaxy alignments.

A debate on open inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawking, S. W.

1999-07-01

This is a reproduction of Professor Stephen Hawking's part in a debate, which took place at the COSMO 98 Coference, in Monterey, California. Two other physicists, Andrei Linde and Alexander Villenkin, also took part. Professor Hawking is the Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge, in England.

Acute toxicity and sublethal effects of the mixture glyphosate (Roundup Active) and Cosmo-Flux 411F to anuran embryos and tadpoles of four Colombian species.

PubMed

Henao Muñoz, Liliana Marcela; Montes Rojas, Claudia Marsela; Bernal Bautista, Manuel Hernando

2015-03-01

Glyphosate is the most widely used herbicide in the world with application in agriculture, forestry, industrial weed control, garden and aquatic environments. However, its use is highly controversial for the possible impact on not-target organisms, such as amphibians, which are vanishing at an alarming and rapid rate. Due to the high solubility in water and ionic nature, the glyphosate requires of surfactants to increase activity. In addition, for the control of coca (Erythroxylum coca) and agricultural weeds in Colombia, formulated glyphosate is mixed and sprayed with the adjuvant Cosmo-Flux 411F to increase the penetration and activity of the herbicide. This study evaluates the acute toxic and sublethal effects (embryonic development, tadpole body size, tadpole swimming performance) of the mixture of the formulated glyphosate Roundup Active and Cosmo-Flux 411F to anuran embryos and tadpoles of four Colombian species under 96h laboratory standard tests and microcosms, which are more similar to field conditions as they include soil, sand and macrophytes. In the laboratory, embryos and tadpoles of Engystomops pustulosus were the most tolerant (LC50 = 3904 microg a.e./L; LC50=2 799 pg a.e./L, respectively), while embryos and tadpoles of Hypsiboas crepitans (LC50=2 203 microg a.e./L; LC50=1424 microgg a.e./L, respectively) were the most sensitive. R. humboldti and R. marina presented an intermediate toxicity. Embryos were significantly more tolerant to the mixture than tadpoles, which could be likely attributed to the exclusion of chemicals by the embryonic membranes and the lack of organs, such as gills, which are sensitive to surfactants. Sublethal effects were observed for the tadpole body size, but not for the embryonic development and tadpole swimming performance. In microcosms, no toxicity (LC50 could not be estimated), or sublethal responses were observed at concentrations up to fourfold (14.76 kg glyphosate a.e./ha) the highest field application rate of 3.69 kg glyphosate a.e./ha. Thus, toxicity was less in the microcosms than in laboratory tests, which may be attributed to the presence of sediments and organic matter which rapidly adsorb glyphosate and surfactants such as POEA. It is concluded that the mixture of glyphosate (Roundup Active) and Cosmo-Flux*411F, as used in the field, has a negligible toxic effect to embryos and tadpoles of the species tested in this study.

Regional Climate Simulations with COSMO-CLM for West Africa using three different soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breil, Marcus; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

2014-05-01

Climate predictions on decadal timescales constitute a new field of research, closing the gap between short-term and seasonal weather predictions and long-term climate projections. Therefore, the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany (BMBF) has recently funded the research program MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen), which aims to create a model system that can provide reliable decadal climate forecasts. Recent studies have suggested that one region with high potential decadal predictability is West Africa. Therefore, the project DEPARTURE (DEcadal Prediction of African Rainfall and ATlantic HURricanE Activity) was established within the MiKlip program to assess the feasibility and the potential added value of regional decadal climate predictions for West Africa. To quantify the potential decadal climate predictability, a multi-model approach with the three different regional climate models REMO, WRF and COSMO-CLM (CCLM) will be realized. The presented research will contribute to DEPARTURE by performing hindcast ensemble simulations with CCLM, driven by global decadal MPI-ESM-LR simulations. Thereby, one focus is on the dynamic soil-vegetation-climate interaction on decadal timescales. Recent studies indicate that there are significant feedbacks between the land-surface and the atmosphere, which might influence the decadal climate variability substantially. To investigate this connection, two different SVATs (Community Land Model (CLM), and VEG3D) will be coupled with the CCLM, replacing TERRA_ML, the standard SVAT implemented in CCLM. Thus, sensitive model parameters shall be identified, whereby the understanding of important processes might be improved. As a first step, TERRA_ML is substituted by VEG3D, a SVAT developed at the IMK-TRO, Karlsruhe, Germany. Compared to TERRA_ML, VEG3D includes an explicit vegetation layer by using a big leaf approach, inducing higher correlations with observations as it has been shown in previous studies. The coupling of VEG3D with CCLM is performed by using the OASIS3-MCT coupling software, developed by CERFACS, Toulouse, France. Results of CCLM simulations using both SVATs are analysed and compared for the DEPARTURE model domain. Thereby ERA-Interim driven CCLM simulations with VEG3D showed better agreement with observational data than simulations with TERRA_ML, especially for dense vegetaded areas. This will be demonstrated exemplarily. Additionally, results for MPI-ESM-LR driven decadal hindcast simulations (1966 - 1975) are analysed and presented.

Regional Climate Simulations with COSMO-CLM for West Africa using different soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer module's (SVAT's)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breil, Marcus; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

2013-04-01

Climate predictions on decadal timescales constitute a new field of research, closing the gap between short-term and seasonal weather predictions and long-term climate projections. Therefore, the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany (BMBF) has recently funded the research program MiKlip (Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen), which aims to create a model system that can provide reliable decadal climate forecasts. Recent studies have suggested that one region with high potential decadal predictability is West Africa. Therefore, the DEPARTURE project (DEcadal Prediction of African Rainfall and ATlantic HURricanE Activity) was established within the MiKlip program to assess the feasibility and the potential added value of regional decadal climate predictions for West Africa. To quantify the potential decadal climate predictability, a multi-model approach with the three different regional climate models REMO, WRF and COSMO-CLM (CCLM) will be realized. The presented research will contribute to DEPARTURE by performing hindcast ensemble simulations with CCLM, based on SST-driven global MPI-ESM-LR simulations. Thereby, one focus is on the dynamic soil-vegetation-climate interaction on decadal timescales. Recent studies indicate that there are significant feedbacks between the land-surface and the atmosphere, which might influence the decadal climate variability substantially. To investigate this connection, three different SVAT's (TERRA_ML, Community Land Model (CLM), and VEG3D) will be coupled with the CCLM. Thus, sensitive model parameters shall be identified, whereby the understanding of important processes might be improved. As a first step, the influence of the model domain on the CCLM results was examined. For this purpose, recent CCLM results from simulations for the official CORDEX domain were compared with CCLM results achieved by using an extended DEPARTURE model domain to about 60°W. This sensitivity analysis was performed with a horizontal resolution of 0.44°. Thereby, the analysis showed that the domain size doesn't affect the quality of the simulation results significantly. The impact of different SVAT's on the model performance is supposed to be higher. To investigate this assumption, TERRA_ML, the standard SVAT implemented in CCLM, is replaced by VEG3D using the OASIS3-MCT coupling software. Compared to TERRA_ML, VEG3D includes an explicit vegetation layer, inducing higher correlations with observations as it has been shown in previous studies. The results of both model configurations are analysed and presented for the DEPARTURE model domain.

McEducation Marginalized: Multiverse of Learning-Living in Grassroots Commons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prakash, Madhu Suri; Stuchul, Dana; Madhu, Suri; Stuchul, Dana

2004-01-01

Fast food explored both as metaphor and social reality help us challenge the assumptions about education as a universal good transformed into a universal human right. Relations between education, development, and "one world" discourses expose the incommensurability of Western liberal ideals with diverse cosmo-visions now flourishing among…

Cosmopolitanism and the De-Colonial Option

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mignolo, Walter

2010-01-01

What are the differences between cosmopolitanism and globalization? Are they "natural" historical processes or are they designed for specific purposes? Was Kant cosmopolitanism good for the entire population of the globe or did it respond to a particular Eurocentered view of what a cosmo-polis should be? The article argues that, while…

Snow Water Equivalent Retrieval Using Multitemporal COSMO Skymed X-Band SAR Images To Inform Water Systems Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denaro, S.; Del Gobbo, U.; Castelletti, A.; Tebaldini, S.; Monti Guarnieri, A.

2015-12-01

In this work, we explore the use of exogenous snow-related information for enhancing the operation of water facilities in snow dominated watersheds. Traditionally, such information is assimilated into short-to-medium term streamflow forecasts, which are then used to inform water systems operation. Here, we adopt an alternative model-free approach, where the policy is directly conditioned upon a small set of selected observational data able to surrogate the snow-pack dynamics. In snow-fed water systems, the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) stored in the basin often represents the largest contribution to the future season streamflow. The SWE estimation process is challenged by the high temporal and spatial variability of snow-pack and snow properties. Traditional retrieval methods, based on few ground sensors and optical satellites, often fail at representing the spatial diversity of snow conditions over large basins and at producing continuous (gap-free) data at the high sample frequency (e.g. daily) required to optimally control water systems. Against this background, SWE estimates from remote sensed radar products stand out, being able to acquire spatial information with no dependence on cloud coverage. In this work, we propose a technique for retrieving SWE estimates from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Cosmo SkyMed X-band images: a regression model, calibrated on ground SWE measurements, is implemented on dry snow maps obtained through a multi-temporal approach. The unprecedented spatial scale of this application is novel w.r.t. state of the art radar analysis conducted on limited spatial domains. The operational value of the SAR retrieved SWE estimates is evaluated based on ISA, a recently developed information selection and assessment framework. The method is demonstrated on a snow-rain fed river basin in the Italian Alps. Preliminary results show SAR images have a good potential for monitoring snow conditions and for improving water management operations.

Near-global climate simulation at 1 km resolution: establishing a performance baseline on 4888 GPUs with COSMO 5.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuhrer, Oliver; Chadha, Tarun; Hoefler, Torsten; Kwasniewski, Grzegorz; Lapillonne, Xavier; Leutwyler, David; Lüthi, Daniel; Osuna, Carlos; Schär, Christoph; Schulthess, Thomas C.; Vogt, Hannes

2018-05-01

The best hope for reducing long-standing global climate model biases is by increasing resolution to the kilometer scale. Here we present results from an ultrahigh-resolution non-hydrostatic climate model for a near-global setup running on the full Piz Daint supercomputer on 4888 GPUs (graphics processing units). The dynamical core of the model has been completely rewritten using a domain-specific language (DSL) for performance portability across different hardware architectures. Physical parameterizations and diagnostics have been ported using compiler directives. To our knowledge this represents the first complete atmospheric model being run entirely on accelerators on this scale. At a grid spacing of 930 m (1.9 km), we achieve a simulation throughput of 0.043 (0.23) simulated years per day and an energy consumption of 596 MWh per simulated year. Furthermore, we propose a new memory usage efficiency (MUE) metric that considers how efficiently the memory bandwidth - the dominant bottleneck of climate codes - is being used.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps - a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rössler, O.; Froidevaux, P.; Börst, U.; Rickli, R.; Martius, O.; Weingartner, R.

2014-06-01

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Spray droplet size, drift potential, and risks to nontarget organisms from aerially applied glyphosate for coca control in Colombia.

PubMed

Hewitt, Andrew J; Solomon, Keith R; Marshall, E J P

2009-01-01

A wind tunnel atomization study was conducted to measure the emission droplet size spectra for water and Glyphos (a glyphosate formulation sold in Colombia) + Cosmo-flux sprays for aerial application to control coca and poppy crops in Colombia. The droplet size spectra were measured in a wind tunnel for an Accu-Flo nozzle (with 16 size 0.085 [2.16 mm] orifices), under appropriate simulated aircraft speeds (up to 333 km/h), using a laser diffraction instrument covering a dynamic size range for droplets of 0.5 to 3,500 microm. The spray drift potential of the glyphosate was modeled using the AGDISP spray application and drift model, using input parameters representative of those occurring in Colombia for typical aerial application operations. The droplet size spectra for tank mixes containing glyphosate and Cosmo-Flux were considerably finer than water and became finer with higher aircraft speeds. The tank mix with 44% glyphosate had a D(v0.5) of 128 microm, while the value at the 4.9% glyphosate rate was 140 microm. These are classified as very fine to fine sprays. Despite being relatively fine, modeling showed that the droplets would not evaporate as rapidly as most similarly sized agricultural sprays because the nonvolatile proportion of the tank mix (active and inert adjuvant ingredients) was large. Thus, longer range drift is small and most drift that does occur will deposit relatively close to the application area. Drift will only occur downwind and, with winds of velocity less than the modeled maximum of 9 km/h, the drift distance would be substantially reduced. Spray drift potential might be additionally reduced through various practices such as the selection of nozzles, tank mix adjuvants, aircraft speeds, and spray pressures that would produce coarser sprays. Species sensitivity distributions to glyphosate were constructed for plants and amphibians. Based on modeled drift and 5th centile concentrations, appropriate no-spray buffer zones (distance from the end of the spray boom as recorded electronically +/-5%) for protection of sensitive plants were 50-120 m for coca spray scenarios and considerably lower for poppy spray scenarios. The equivalent buffer zone for amphibia was 5 m. The low toxicity of glyphosate to humans suggests that these aerial applications are not a concern for human health.

Geodetic constraints to the source mechanism of the 2011-2013 unrest at Campi Flegrei (Italy) caldera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trasatti, Elisa; Polcari, Marco; Bonafede, Maurizio; Stramondo, Salvatore

2016-04-01

Campi Flegrei (Italy) is a nested caldera and together with Vesuvius is one of the Italian GEO Geohazard Supersites (GSNL). The area is characterized by one of the highest volcanic hazard of the world, due to the very high density of inhabitants (1800/km²), the persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of volcanism. A major unrest episode took place in 1982-84, when the town of Pozzuoli, located at the caldera center, was uplifted by 1.80 m. Minor uplifts of few centimeters, seismic swarms and degassing episodes took place in 1989, 2000 and 2004-06. Since 2005 Campi Flegrei is uplifting, reaching a ground velocity of 9 cm/yr in 2012, showing that the caldera is in a critical state on the verge of instability. In this work, we present results from SAR Interferometry and geodetic data modelling at Campi Flegrei in the framework of the EU's FP7 MED-SUV Project. We exploit two COSMO-SkyMed data sets to map the deformation field during 2011-2013. The spatial distributions of the cumulative displacement from COSMO-SkyMed ascending/descending orbits show similar behaviors, confirming the bell-shaped pattern of the deformation at least within the inner rim of the caldera. The resulting data, together with GPS data from the Neapolitan Volcanoes Continuous GPS network (NeVoCGPS) is fitted through a geophysical inversion process using finite element forward models to account for the 3D heterogeneous medium. The best fit model is a north dipping mixed-mode dislocation source lying at ~5 km depth. The driving mechanism is ascribable to magma input into the source of the large 1982-1984 unrest (since similar source characteristics were inferred) that generates initial inflation followed by additional shear slip accompanying the extension of crack tips. The history and the current state of the system indicate that Campi Flegrei is able to erupt again. Constraining the defomation source may have important implications in terms of civil protection and the advanced techniques adopted provide useful information for short-term forecasting.

Model simulations with COSMO-SPECS: impact of heterogeneous freezing modes and ice nucleating particle types on ice formation and precipitation in a deep convective cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diehl, Karoline; Grützun, Verena

2018-03-01

In deep convective clouds, heavy rain is often formed involving the ice phase. Simulations were performed using the 3-D cloud resolving model COSMO-SPECS with detailed spectral microphysics including parameterizations of homogeneous and three heterogeneous freezing modes. The initial conditions were selected to result in a deep convective cloud reaching 14 km of altitude with strong updrafts up to 40 m s-1. At such altitudes with corresponding temperatures below -40 °C the major fraction of liquid drops freezes homogeneously. The goal of the present model simulations was to investigate how additional heterogeneous freezing will affect ice formation and precipitation although its contribution to total ice formation may be rather low. In such a situation small perturbations that do not show significant effects at first sight may trigger cloud microphysical responses. Effects of the following small perturbations were studied: (1) additional ice formation via immersion, contact, and deposition modes in comparison to solely homogeneous freezing, (2) contact and deposition freezing in comparison to immersion freezing, and (3) small fractions of biological ice nucleating particles (INPs) in comparison to higher fractions of mineral dust INP. The results indicate that the modification of precipitation proceeds via the formation of larger ice particles, which may be supported by direct freezing of larger drops, the growth of pristine ice particles by riming, and by nucleation of larger drops by collisions with pristine ice particles. In comparison to the reference case with homogeneous freezing only, such small perturbations due to additional heterogeneous freezing rather affect the total precipitation amount. It is more likely that the temporal development and the local distribution of precipitation are affected by such perturbations. This results in a gradual increase in precipitation at early cloud stages instead of a strong increase at later cloud stages coupled with approximately 50 % more precipitation in the cloud center. The modifications depend on the active freezing modes, the fractions of active INP, and the composition of the internal mixtures in the drops.

MINERVE flood warning and management project. What is computed, what is required and what is visualized?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia Hernandez, J.; Boillat, J.-L.; Schleiss, A.

2010-09-01

During last decades several flood events caused important inundations in the Upper Rhone River basin in Switzerland. As a response to such disasters, the MINERVE project aims to improve the security by reducing damages in this basin. The main goal of this project is to predict floods in advance in order to obtain a better flow control during flood peaks taking advantage from the multireservoir system of the existing hydropower schemes. The MINERVE system evaluates the hydro-meteorological situation on the watershed and provides hydrological forecasts with a horizon from three to five days. It exploits flow measurements, data from reservoirs and hydropower plants as well as deterministic (COSMO-7 and COSMO-2) and ensemble (COSMO-LEPS) meteorological forecast from MeteoSwiss. The hydrological model is based on a semi-distributed concept, dividing the watershed in 239 sub-catchments, themselves decomposed in elevation bands in order to describe the temperature-driven processes related to snow and glacier melt. The model is completed by rivers and hydraulic works such as water intakes, reservoirs, turbines and pumps. Once the hydrological forecasts are calculated, a report provides the warning level at selected control points according to time, being a support to decision-making for preventive actions. A Notice, Alert or Alarm is then activated depending on the discharge thresholds defined by the Valais Canton. Preventive operation scenarios are then generated based on observed discharge at control points, meteorological forecasts from MeteoSwiss, hydrological forecasts from MINERVE and retention possibilities in the reservoirs. An update of the situation is done every time new data or new forecasts are provided, keeping last observations and last forecasts in the warning report. The forecasts can also be used for the evaluation of priority decisions concerning the management of hydropower plants for security purposes. Considering future inflows and reservoir levels, turbine and bottom outlet preventive operations can be proposed to the hydropower plants operators in order to store water inflows and to stop turbining during the peak flow. Appropriate operations can thus reduce the peak discharges in the Rhone River and its tributaries, limiting or avoiding damages. Results presentation in a clear and understandable way is an important goal of the project and is considered as one of the main focuses. The MINERVE project is developed in partnership by the Swiss Federal Office for Environment (FOEV), Services of Roads and Water courses as well as Water Power and Energy of the Wallis Canton and Service of Water, Land and Sanitation of the Vaud Canton. The Swiss Weather Service (MeteoSwiss) provides the weather forecasts and hydroelectric companies communicate specific information regarding the hydropower plants. Scientific developments are entrusted to two entities of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), the Hydraulic Constructions Laboratory (LCH) and the Ecohydrology Laboratory (ECHO), as well as to the Institute of Geomatics and Analysis of Risk (IGAR) of Lausanne University (UNIL).

Cb-LIKE - Thunderstorm forecasts up to six hours with fuzzy logic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhler, Martin; Tafferner, Arnold

2016-04-01

Thunderstorms with their accompanying effects like heavy rain, hail, or downdrafts cause delays and flight cancellations and therefore high additional cost for airlines and airport operators. A reliable thunderstorm forecast up to several hours could provide more time for decision makers in air traffic for an appropriate reaction on possible storm cells and initiation of adequate counteractions. To provide the required forecasts Cb-LIKE (Cumulonimbus-LIKElihood) has been developed at the DLR (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt) Institute of Atmospheric Physics. The new algorithm is an automated system which designates areas with possible thunderstorm development by using model data of the COSMO-DE weather model, which is driven by the German Meteorological Service (DWD). A newly developed "Best-Member- Selection" method allows the automatic selection of that particular model run of a time-lagged COSMO- DE model ensemble, which matches best the current thunderstorm situation. Thereby the application of the best available data basis for the calculation of the thunderstorm forecasts by Cb-LIKE is ensured. Altogether there are four different modes for the selection of the best member. Four atmospheric parameters (CAPE, vertical wind velocity, radar reflectivity and cloud top temperature) of the model output are used within the algorithm. A newly developed fuzzy logic system enables the subsequent combination of the model parameters and the calculation of a thunderstorm indicator within a value range of 12 up to 88 for each grid point of the model domain for the following six hours in one hour intervals. The higher the indicator value the more the model parameters imply the development of thunderstorms. The quality of the Cb-LIKE thunderstorm forecasts was evaluated by a substantial verification using a neighborhood verification approach and multi-event contingency tables. The verification was performed for the whole summer period of 2012. On the basis of a deterministic object comparison with heavy precipitation cells observed by the radar-based thunderstorm tracking algorithm Rad-TRAM, several verification scores like BIAS, POD, FAR and CSI were calculated to identify possible advantages of the new algorithm. The presentation illustrates in detail the concept of the Cb-LIKE algorithm with regard to the fuzzy logic system and the Best-Member-Selection. Additionally some case studies and the most important results of the verification will be shown. The implementation of the forecasts into the DLR WxFUSION system, an user oriented forecasting system for air traffic, will also be included.

27ps DFTMD Simulations of Maltose using a Reduced Basis Set

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The disaccharide, a-maltose, has been studied using constant energy density functional molecular dynamics (DFTMD) at the B3LYP/6-31+G*/4-31G+COSMO (solvent) level of theory. Maltose is of particular interest as the variation in glycosidic dihedral angles has been found to be dependent upon the star...

Study of Citizen Scientist Motivations and Effectiveness of Social Media Campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gugliucci, Nicole E.; Gay, P. L.; Bracey, G.; Lehan, C.; Lewis, S.; Moore, J.; Rhea, J.

2013-01-01

CosmoQuest is an online citizen science and astronomy education portal that invites users to explore the universe. Since its launch in January 2012, several thousand citizen scientists have participated in mapping and discovery projects involving the Moon, the Kuiper Belt, and asteroid Vesta. Since our goal is to support community building as well as involving users with citizen science tasks, we are interested in what motivates users to join the site, participate in the science, participate in the forums, and come back to the site over a period of time. We would also like to efficiently target our social media interactions towards activities that are more likely to bring new and existing users to the site. With those goals in mind, we analyze site usage statistics and correlate them with specific, targeted social media campaigns to highlight events or projects that CosmoQuest has hosted in its first year. We also survey our users to get a more detailed look at citizen scientist motivations and the efficacy of our community building activities.

Effectively parameterizing dissipative particle dynamics using COSMO-SAC: A partition coefficient study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saathoff, Jonathan

2018-04-01

Dissipative Particle Dynamics (DPD) provides a tool for studying phase behavior and interfacial phenomena for complex mixtures and macromolecules. Methods to quickly and automatically parameterize DPD greatly increase its effectiveness. One such method is to map predicted activity coefficients derived from COSMO-SAC onto DPD parameter sets. However, there are serious limitations to the accuracy of this mapping, including the inability of single DPD beads to reproduce asymmetric infinite dilution activity coefficients, the loss of precision when reusing parameters for different molecular fragments, and the error due to bonding beads together. This report describes these effects in quantitative detail and provides methods to mitigate much of their deleterious effects. This includes a novel approach to remove errors caused by bonding DPD beads together. Using these methods, logarithm hexane/water partition coefficients were calculated for 61 molecules. The root mean-squared error for these calculations was determined to be 0.14—a very low value—with respect to the final mapping procedure. Cognizance of the above limitations can greatly enhance the predictive power of DPD.

Performance of High Resolution Satellite InSAR in Detection of Dangerous Subsidence in Case of Brno Urban Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazecky, Milan; Rapant, Petr; Blaha, Pavel; Perissin, Daniele

2016-08-01

For the work, we have achieved 20 Radarsat-2 acquisitions in fine beam mode within ESA project C1P.21629 - Evaluation of Potential Threats to Stability of Linear Structures using InSAR Technology. These acquisitions show deformations in Brno city between August 2014 and October 2015 with a regular step of 24 days temporal difference. Also, we have additionally achieved a series of 75 Cosmo SkyMed images with temporal step every 16 days in average, for dates between June 2011 and July 2014. The Cosmo SkyMed dataset partially overlaps with the reference measurements of tilt and height changes. After the end of the intensive measurements, the PS InSAR time series can deliver knowledge about continuation of movement and depict the date of final stabilization of the area. The accuracy can be validated using the limited number of the continuing warranty levelling mission. We have realized that the available dataset can be used also for monitoring of other events. We provide an example of potential detection of a cavity under a house in Brno-Bystrc.

Summer Crop Classification by Multi-Temporal COSMO-SkyMed® Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guarini, Rocchina; Bruzzone, Lorenzo; Santoni, Massimo; Vuolo, Francesco; Luigi, Dini

2016-08-01

In this study, we propose a multi-temporal and multi- polarization approach to discriminate different crop types in the Marchefel region, Austria. The sensitivity of X-band COSMO-SkyMed® (CSK®) data with respect to five crop classes, namely carrot, corn, potato, soybean and sugarbeet is investigated. In particular, the capabilities of dual-polarization (StripMap PingPong) HH/HV, and single-polarization (StripMap Himage), HH and VH, in distinguishing among the five crop types are evaluated. A total of twenty-one Himage and ten PingPong images were acquired in a seven-months period, from April to October 2014. Therefore, the backscattering coefficient was extracted for each dataset and the classification was performed using a pixel-based support vector machine (SVM) approach. The accuracy of the obtained crop classifications was assessed by comparing them with ground truth. The dual-polarization results are contrasted between the HH and HV polarization, and with single-polarization ones (HH and VH polarizations). The best accuracy is obtained by using time-series of StripMap Himage data, at VH polarization, covering the whole season period.

The 21 August 2017 Ischia (Italy) Earthquake Source Model Inferred From Seismological, GPS, and DInSAR Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Novellis, V.; Carlino, S.; Castaldo, R.; Tramelli, A.; De Luca, C.; Pino, N. A.; Pepe, S.; Convertito, V.; Zinno, I.; De Martino, P.; Bonano, M.; Giudicepietro, F.; Casu, F.; Macedonio, G.; Manunta, M.; Cardaci, C.; Manzo, M.; Di Bucci, D.; Solaro, G.; Zeni, G.; Lanari, R.; Bianco, F.; Tizzani, P.

2018-03-01

The causative source of the first damaging earthquake instrumentally recorded in the Island of Ischia, occurred on 21 August 2017, has been studied through a multiparametric geophysical approach. In order to investigate the source geometry and kinematics we exploit seismological, Global Positioning System, and Sentinel-1 and COSMO-SkyMed differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar coseismic measurements. Our results indicate that the retrieved solutions from the geodetic data modeling and the seismological data are plausible; in particular, the best fit solution consists of an E-W striking, south dipping normal fault, with its center located at a depth of 800 m. Moreover, the retrieved causative fault is consistent with the rheological stratification of the crust in this zone. This study allows us to improve the knowledge of the volcano-tectonic processes occurring on the Island, which is crucial for a better assessment of the seismic risk in the area.

Evaluation of precipitation nowcasting techniques for the Alpine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panziera, L.; Mandapaka, P.; Atencia, A.; Hering, A.; Germann, U.; Gabella, M.; Buzzi, M.

2010-09-01

This study presents a large sample evaluation of different nowcasting systems over the Southern Swiss Alps. Radar observations are taken as a reference against which to assess the performance of the following short-term quantitative precipitation forecasting methods: -Eulerian persistence: the current radar image is taken as forecast. -Lagrangian persistence: precipitation patterns are advected following the field of storm motion (the MAPLE algorithm is used). -NORA: novel nowcasting system which exploits the presence of the orographic forcing; by comparing meteorological predictors estimated in real-time with those from the large historical data set, the events with the highest resemblance are picked to produce the forecast. -COSMO2, the limited area numerical model operationally used at MeteoSwiss -Blending of the aforementioned nowcasting tools precipitation forecasts. The investigation is aimed to set up a probabilistic radar rainfall runoff model experiment for steep Alpine catchments as part of the European research project IMPRINTS.

Dynamic magmatic processes at a continental rift caldera, observed using satellite geodesy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lloyd, Ryan; Biggs, Juliet; Birhanu, Yelebe; Wilks, Matt; Gottsmann, Jo; Kendall, Mike; Lewi, Elias

2016-04-01

Large silicic calderas are a key feature of developing continental rifts, such as the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER), and are often observed to be deforming. Corbetti is one such example of a Holocene caldera in the MER that is undergoing deformation. However, the cause of the unrest, and the relationship to rift processes such as magma storage, transport and extension remain poorly understood. To investigate, we use InSAR (ascending and descending Cosmo-SkyMed data) and continuous GPS to observe the temporal and spatial evolution of sustained uplift at the Corbetti Caldera. Within the caldera, which was thought to have formed ~200 ka, there is evidence for numerous periods of resurgent volcanism in the form of plinian eruptions as well as effusive obsidian flows. How the sources of these varying styles of volcanism are reconciled at depth and in time is currently poorly constrained. Previous research has shown that pre-rift structures have a significant influence on the strain field, and hence on the magmatic and hydrothermal processes which drive it. The Cosmo-SkyMed data used in this study was specifically chosen such that each ascending image has a corresponding descending image acquired as contemporaneously as possible. This is necessary, given the rate of uplift, so as to reduce the number of assumptions when constructing time-series from multiple look directions, and when incorporating GPS data. We decompose the ascending and descending line-of-site deformation signals into vertical and east-west components and use finite source modeling to constrain the depth and geometry of the source of deformation. These results are then compared to available seismic, dynamic microgravity and magnetotelluric data to better understand this system, and how it is related to the volcanic hazard and local geothermal resources.

Statistical characterisation of COSMO Sky-Med X-SAR retrieved precipitation fields by scale-invariance analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deidda, Roberto; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Hellies, Matteo; Baldini, Luca; Roberto, Nicoletta

2013-04-01

COSMO Sky-Med (CSK) is an important programme of the Italian Space Agency aiming at supporting environmental monitoring and management of exogenous, endogenous and anthropogenic risks through X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (X-SAR) on board of 4 satellites forming a constellation. Most of typical SAR applications are focused on land or ocean observation. However, X-band SAR can be detect precipitation that results in a specific signature caused by the combination of attenuation of surface returns induced by precipitation and enhancement of backscattering determined by the hydrometeors in the SAR resolution volume. Within CSK programme, we conducted an intercomparison between the statistical properties of precipitation fields derived by CSK SARs and those derived by the CNR Polar 55C (C-band) ground based weather radar located in Rome (Italy). This contribution presents main results of this research which was aimed at the robust characterisation of rainfall statistical properties across different scales by means of scale-invariance analysis and multifractal theory. The analysis was performed on a dataset of more two years of precipitation observations collected by the CNR Polar 55C radar and rainfall fields derived from available images collected by the CSK satellites during intense rainfall events. Scale-invariance laws and multifractal properties were detected on the most intense rainfall events derived from the CNR Polar 55C radar for spatial scales from 4 km to 64 km. The analysis on X-SAR retrieved rainfall fields, although based on few images, leaded to similar results and confirmed the existence of scale-invariance and multifractal properties for scales larger than 4 km. These outcomes encourage investigating SAR methodologies for future development of meteo-hydrological forecasting models based on multifractal theory.

A novel multi-band SAR data technique for fully automatic oil spill detection in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Frate, Fabio; Latini, Daniele; Taravat, Alireza; Jones, Cathleen E.

2013-10-01

With the launch of the Italian constellation of small satellites for the Mediterranean basin observation COSMO-SkyMed and the German TerraSAR-X missions, the delivery of very high-resolution SAR data to observe the Earth day or night has remarkably increased. In particular, also taking into account other ongoing missions such as Radarsat or those no longer working such as ALOS PALSAR, ERS-SAR and ENVISAT the amount of information, at different bands, available for users interested in oil spill analysis has become highly massive. Moreover, future SAR missions such as Sentinel-1 are scheduled for launch in the very next years while additional support can be provided by Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle (UAV) SAR systems. Considering the opportunity represented by all these missions, the challenge is to find suitable and adequate image processing multi-band procedures able to fully exploit the huge amount of data available. In this paper we present a new fast, robust and effective automated approach for oil-spill monitoring starting from data collected at different bands, polarizations and spatial resolutions. A combination of Weibull Multiplicative Model (WMM), Pulse Coupled Neural Network (PCNN) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) techniques is proposed for achieving the aforementioned goals. One of the most innovative ideas is to separate the dark spot detection process into two main steps, WMM enhancement and PCNN segmentation. The complete processing chain has been applied to a data set containing C-band (ERS-SAR, ENVISAT ASAR), X-band images (Cosmo-SkyMed and TerraSAR-X) and L-band images (UAVSAR) for an overall number of more than 200 images considered.

Improving efficiency and value in health care. Intravenous iron management for anaemia associated with chronic kidney disease: linking treatment to an outpatient clinic, optimizing service provision and patient choice.

PubMed

Bhandari, Sunil; Naudeer, Sarah

2008-12-01

The National Service Framework advocates correction of anaemia in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Oral iron is insufficient, while intravenous (IV) supplementation replenishes and maintains iron stores. In Yorkshire numerous peripheral clinics exist to reduce travel for patients, but patients must travel to the main unit for IV iron therapy. Therefore an outpatient service in tandem with a routine clinic for administration of IV CosmoFer was created. To evaluate the feasibility and benefits of IV iron therapy in the outpatient clinic during active patient review for CKD patients. A cross-sectional study of patients attending for total dose IV iron (n = 57) at a peripheral clinic. Iron was administered and monitored according to protocol by one of the clinic nurses with medical staff available in the adjoining room. Haemoglobin, ferritin and renal function were recorded pre-infusion and after 4-6 months. Results are given as medians/means +/- standard error. A total of 76 IV infusions were carried out with no reported side effects or haemodynamic instability. Haemoglobin (median 10.9 vs. 11.3 g dL(-1), P = NS), creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over the 6-month period remained stable. Serum ferritin rose significantly [80.9 +/- 6.2 vs. 186.4 +/- 18.2 g L(-1) (P < 0.001)]. Hospital time saved 380 day case bed hours, doctor hours saved 76 hours, and patient hours saved 3 hours/patient. Cost savings for TDI CosmoFer in peripheral clinic versus in centre therapy and versus sucrose, respectively, for 76 treatments was pound 5749.40 and pound 46,320.80 respectively. We have demonstrated, in a resource-limited service, the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of a management care pathway for patients with CKD, in a peripheral clinic, to receive total dose IV CosmoFer without disruption of a functioning renal clinic.

Time-lagged ensemble simulations of the dispersion of the Eyjafjallajökull plume over Europe with COSMO-ART

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, H.; Förstner, J.; Vogel, B.; Hanisch, T.; Mühr, B.; Schättler, U.; Schad, T.

2014-08-01

An extended version of the German operational weather forecast model was used to simulate the ash dispersion during the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull. As an operational forecast was launched every 6 hours, a time-lagged ensemble was obtained. Sensitivity runs show the ability of the model to simulate thin ash layers when an increased vertical resolution is used. Calibration of the model results with measured data allows for a quantitative forecast of the ash concentration. After this calibration an independent comparison of the simulated number concentration of 3 μm particles and observations at Hohenpeißenberg gives a correlation coefficient of 0.79. However, this agreement could only be reached after additional modifications of the emissions. Based on the time lagged ensemble the conditional probability of violation of a certain threshold is calculated. Improving the ensemble technique used in our study such probabilities could become valuable information for the forecasters advising the organizations responsible for the closing of the airspace.

Going full circle: phase-transition thermodynamics of ionic liquids.

PubMed

Preiss, Ulrich; Verevkin, Sergey P; Koslowski, Thorsten; Krossing, Ingo

2011-05-27

We present the full enthalpic phase transition cycle for ionic liquids (ILs) as examples of non-classical salts. The cycle was closed for the lattice, solvation, dissociation, and vaporization enthalpies of 30 different ILs, relying on as much experimental data as was available. High-quality dissociation enthalpies were calculated at the G3 MP2 level. From the cycle, we could establish, for the first time, the lattice and solvation enthalpies of ILs with imidazolium ions. For vaporization, lattice, and dissociation enthalpies, we also developed new prediction methods in the course of our investigations. Here, as only single-ion values need to be calculated and the tedious optimization of an ion pair can be circumvented, the computational time is short. For the vaporization enthalpy, a very simple approach was found, using a surface term and the calculated enthalpic correction to the total gas-phase energy. For the lattice enthalpy, the most important constituent proved to be the calculated conductor-like screening model (COSMO) solvation enthalpy in the ideal electric conductor. A similar model was developed for the dissociation enthalpy. According to our assessment, the typical error of the lattice enthalpy would be 9.4 kJ mol(-1), which is less than half the deviation we get when using the (optimized) Kapustinskii equation or the recent volume-based thermodynamics (VBT) theory. In contrast, the non-optimized VBT formula gives lattice enthalpies 20 to 140 kJ mol(-1) lower than the ones we assessed in the cycle, because of the insufficient description of dispersive interactions. Our findings show that quantum-chemical calculations can greatly improve the VBT approaches, which were parameterized for simple, inorganic salts with ideally point-shaped charges. In conclusion, we suggest the term "augmented VBT", or "aVBT", to describe this kind of theoretical approach. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Redox properties of biscyclopentadienyl uranium(V) imido-halide complexes: a relativistic DFT study.

PubMed

Elkechai, Aziz; Kias, Farida; Talbi, Fazia; Boucekkine, Abdou

2014-06-01

Calculations of ionization energies (IE) and electron affinities (EA) of a series of biscyclopentadienyl imido-halide uranium(V) complexes Cp*2U(=N-2,6-(i)Pr2-C6H3)(X) with X =  F, Cl, Br, and I, related to the U(IV)/U(V) and U(V)/U(VI) redox systems, were carried out, for the first time, using density functional theory (DFT) in the framework of the relativistic zeroth order regular approximation (ZORA) coupled with the conductor-like screening model (COSMO) solvation approach. A very good linear correlation (R(2) =  0.993) was obtained, between calculated ionization energies at the ZORA/BP86/TZP level, and the experimental half-wave oxidation potentials E1/2. A similar linear correlation between the computed electron affinities and the electrochemical reduction U(IV)/U(III) potentials (R(2) =  0.996) is obtained. The importance of solvent effects and of spin-orbit coupling is definitively confirmed. The molecular orbital analysis underlines the crucial role played by the 5f orbitals of the central metal whereas the Nalewajski-Mrozek (N-M) bond indices explain well the bond distances variations following the redox processes. The IE variation of the complexes, i.e., IE(F) < IE(Cl) < IE(Br) < IE(I) is also well rationalized considering the frontier MO diagrams of these species. Finally, this work confirms the relevance of the Hirshfeld charges analysis which bring to light an excellent linear correlation (R(2) =  0.999) between the variations of the uranium charges and E1/2 in the reduction process of the U(V) species.

A review on regional convection permitting climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Lipzig, Nicole; Prein, Andreas; Brisson, Erwan; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Demuzere, Matthias; Saeed, Sajjad; Stengel, Martin

2016-04-01

With the increase of computational resources, it has recently become possible to perform climate model integrations where at least part the of convection is resolved. Since convection-permitting models (CPMs) are performing better than models where convection is parameterized, especially for high-impact weather like extreme precipitation, there is currently strong scientific progress in this research domain (Prein et al., 2015). Another advantage of CPMs, that have a horizontal grid spacing <4 km, is that they better resolve complex orography and land use. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM is frequently applied for CPM simulations, due to its non-hydrostatic dynamics and open international network of scientists. This presentation consists of an overview of the recent progress in CPM, with a focus on COSMO-CLM. It consists of three parts, namely the discussion of i) critical components of CPM, ii) the added value of CPM in the present-day climate and iii) the difference in climate sensitivity in CPM compared to coarser scale models. In terms of added value, the CPMs especially improve the representation of precipitation's, diurnal cycle, intensity and spatial distribution. However, an in depth-evaluation of cloud properties with CCLM over Belgium indicates a strong underestimation of the cloud fraction, causing an overestimation of high temperature extremes (Brisson et al., 2016). In terms of climate sensitivity, the CPMs indicate a stronger increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains compared to coarser scale models. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, additional efforts are necessary to overcome remaining deficiencies, like improving the cloud characteristics. This will be a challenging task due to compensating deficiencies that currently exist in `state-of-the-art' models, yielding a good representation of average climate conditions. In the light of using CPMs to study climate change it is necessary that these deficiencies are addressed in future research. Coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs. Brisson, E., K. Van Weverberg, M. Demuzere, A. Devis, S. Saeed, M. Stengel, N.P.M. van Lipzig, 2016. How well can a convection-permitting climate model reproduce 1 decadal statistics of precipitation, temperature and cloud characteristics? Clim. Dyn. (minor revisions). Prein, Andreas F., Wolfgang Langhans, Giorgia Fosser, Andrew Ferrone, Nikolina Ban, Klaus Goergen, Michael Keller, Merja Tölle, Oliver Gutjahr, Frauke Feser, Erwan Brisson, Stefan Kollet, Juerg Schmidli, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Ruby Leung. (2015) A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges. Reviews of Geophysics 53:10.1002/rog.v53.2, 323-361

DFT studies of the hydrated carbohydrate, glucose: optimization and DFTMD simulations of ten explicit waters superimposed with an implicit solvation method, COSMO

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

One of the most important and least understood properties of carbohydrates is their conformational profile in solution. The study of carbohydrates in solution is a most difficult computational problem, a result of the many soft conformational variables (hydroxyl groups) inherent in the structures of...

Cosmo Girls: Configurations of Class and Femininity in Elite Educational Settings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allan, Alexandra; Charles, Claire

2014-01-01

In this paper we offer a unique contribution to understandings of schooling as a site for the production of social class difference. We bring together the rich body of work that has been conducted on middle-class educational identities, with explorations of the centrality of the feminine in representations of class difference from the field of…

The Joy of Creating Virtual Mathematical Sculptures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chuan, Jen-chung

The process of turning symbols into a mathematical sculpture has never been easier. A copy of Maple V release five and a Web browser configured with a VRML plug-in such as the Cosmo Player is necessary to do these activities. Maple V furnishes the computing environment with the capability of allowing for concentration on the mathematical…

Effects of forest cover changes in European Russia on regional weather conditions: results of numerical experiments with the COSMO-CLM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olchev, Alexander; Kuzmina, Ekaterina; Rozinkina, Inna; Nikitin, Mikhail; Rivin, Gdaly S.

2017-04-01

The forests have a significant effect on the climatic system. They capture CO2 from the atmosphere, regulate the surface evaporation and runoff, and influence the radiation and thermal conditions of the land surface. It is obvious, that their influence depends on many different factors including regional climate conditions, land use and vegetation structure, surface topography, etc. The main goal of the study is to assess the possible influence of forest cover changes (under deforestation and/or afforestation) on regional weather conditions in the central part of European Russia using the results of modeling experiments provided by the meso-scale COSMO-CLM model. The need of the study lies in a lack of the experimental and modeling data characterizing the influence of the forest and land-use changes on regional weather conditions in European part of Russia. The forest ecosystems in the study region play a very important biosphere role that is significantly increased in the last decades due to considerable strengthening of anthropogenic activity in the area of European Russia. The area selected for the study is located in the central part of European Russia between 55 and 59N and 28 and 37E. It comprises several geographical zones including dark-coniferous forests of the South-European taiga in the north, the mixed forests in the central part and the broad-leaved forests in the south. The forests within the study area are very heterogeneous. The total area covered by forests according to recent remote sensing data is about 50%. The numerical experiments were provided using the COSMO-CLM model with the spatial resolution 13.2 km. As initial and boundary conditions for the numerical experiments the global reanalysis ERA Interim (with the 6-hour resolution in time and 0.75° × 0.75° in space) were used. The weather conditions were simulated in a continuous cycle for several months for the entire area of European Russia using the results of global reanalysis on external boundaries of the modeling domain. For the modeling experiments the warm period (from May to September) of 2010 was selected. The first modeling experiment assumed total deforestation of the study area. The second experiment suggested complete interruption of economic activity in the region, forest regeneration and total area afforestation. It was assumed that the forest cover increase in the considered scenario was only due to increase of the fraction of pioneer small-leaved tree species (e.g. birch, aspen). Any possible changes in proportion of coniferous species were ignored. The results of the modeling experiments showed considerable influence of forest cover changes on regional weather conditions. The influence of forest cover was manifested in changes of spatial patterns of the air temperature at different levels in the atmosphere, in changes of amount and intensity of precipitation, dew point, cloud cover, relative humidity, wind speed, and in changes of a number of other meteorological parameters. It was shown that the total deforestation of the study region can result in increase of the mean air temperature in summer on 0.3°C and in reduction of precipitation by about 6%. The afforestation processes can lead to opposite effects: in case of modeling scenario imitating the total afforestation of the study area the model predicts the decrease of the mean summer temperatures on 0.1°C and increase of precipitation by 4%. The diurnal changes of meteorological parameters can be significantly higher and more heterogeneous. Whereas the changes of the surface air temperature and humidity, wind speed and some other parameters are mainly appeared within the area with changed forest cover only, the changes of precipitation and cloud cover patterns are manifested within the entire European part of Russia including the areas situated outside the study region. The study is involved in the NEESPI program and it was supported by grant of the Russian Science Foundation (14-14- 00956).

Response of different regional online coupled models to aerosol-radiation interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, Renate; Balzarini, Alessandra; Brunner, Dominik; Baró, Rocio; Curci, Gabriele; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro; Jorba, Oriol; Pérez, Juan L.; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Schröder, Wolfram; Tuccella, Paolo; Werhahn, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Žabkar, Rahela

2016-04-01

The importance of aerosol-meteorology interactions and their representation in online coupled regional atmospheric chemistry-meteorology models was investigated in COST Action ES1004 (EuMetChem, http://eumetchem.info/). Case study results from different models (COSMO-Muscat, COSMO-ART, and different configurations of WRF-Chem), which were applied for Europe as a coordinated exercise for the year 2010, are analyzed with respect to inter-model variability and the response of the different models to direct and indirect aerosol-radiation interactions. The main focus was on two episodes - the Russian heat wave and wildfires episode in July/August 2010 and a period in October 2010 with enhanced cloud cover and rain and including an of Saharan dust transport to Europe. Looking at physical plausibility the decrease in downward solar radiation and daytime temperature due to the direct aerosol effect is robust for all model configurations. The same holds for the pronounced decrease in cloud water content and increase in solar radiation for cloudy conditions and very low aerosol concentrations that was found for WRF-Chem when aerosol cloud interactions were considered. However, when the differences were tested for statistical significance no significant differences in mean solar radiation and mean temperature between the baseline case and the simulations including the direct and indirect effect from simulated aerosol concentrations were found over Europe for the October episode. Also for the fire episode differences between mean temperature and radiation from the simulations with and without the direct aerosol effect were not significant for the major part of the modelling domain. Only for the region with high fire emissions in Russia, the differences in mean solar radiation and temperature due to the direct effect were found to be significant during the second half of the fire episode - however only for a significance level of 0.1. The few observational data indicate that the inclusion of aerosol radiative effects improves simulated temperatures in this area. In summary, the direct aerosol effect leads to lower temperatures and PBL heights for all seasons whereas the impact of the aerosol indirect effect on temperature and pollutant concentrations over Northern Europe was found to depend strongly on the season. It cannot be generalized whether the inclusion of aerosol radiative effects and aerosol cloud interactions based on simulated aerosol concentrations does improve the simulation results. Furthermore, assumptions how aerosol optical properties are calculated, i.e. on the aerosol's mixing state have a strong effect on simulated aerosol optical depth and the aerosol effect on incoming solar radiation and temperature. The inter-model variation of the response of different online coupled models suggests that further work comparing the methodologies and parameterizations used to represent the direct and indirect aerosol effect in these models is still necessary.

Calculation of distribution coefficients in the SAMPL5 challenge from atomic solvation parameters and surface areas.

PubMed

Santos-Martins, Diogo; Fernandes, Pedro Alexandrino; Ramos, Maria João

2016-11-01

In the context of SAMPL5, we submitted blind predictions of the cyclohexane/water distribution coefficient (D) for a series of 53 drug-like molecules. Our method is purely empirical and based on the additive contribution of each solute atom to the free energy of solvation in water and in cyclohexane. The contribution of each atom depends on the atom type and on the exposed surface area. Comparatively to similar methods in the literature, we used a very small set of atomic parameters: only 10 for solvation in water and 1 for solvation in cyclohexane. As a result, the method is protected from overfitting and the error in the blind predictions could be reasonably estimated. Moreover, this approach is fast: it takes only 0.5 s to predict the distribution coefficient for all 53 SAMPL5 compounds, allowing its application in virtual screening campaigns. The performance of our approach (submission 49) is modest but satisfactory in view of its efficiency: the root mean square error (RMSE) was 3.3 log D units for the 53 compounds, while the RMSE of the best performing method (using COSMO-RS) was 2.1 (submission 16). Our method is implemented as a Python script available at https://github.com/diogomart/SAMPL5-DC-surface-empirical .

Towards a More Accurate Solar Power Forecast By Improving NWP Model Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhler, C.; Lee, D.; Steiner, A.; Ritter, B.

2014-12-01

The growing importance and successive expansion of renewable energies raise new challenges for decision makers, transmission system operators, scientists and many more. In this interdisciplinary field, the role of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is to reduce the uncertainties associated with the large share of weather-dependent power sources. Precise power forecast, well-timed energy trading on the stock market, and electrical grid stability can be maintained. The research project EWeLiNE is a collaboration of the German Weather Service (DWD), the Fraunhofer Institute (IWES) and three German transmission system operators (TSOs). Together, wind and photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts shall be improved by combining optimized NWP and enhanced power forecast models. The conducted work focuses on the identification of critical weather situations and the associated errors in the German regional NWP model COSMO-DE. Not only the representation of the model cloud characteristics, but also special events like Sahara dust over Germany and the solar eclipse in 2015 are treated and their effect on solar power accounted for. An overview of the EWeLiNE project and results of the ongoing research will be presented.

Effective field theory of cosmic acceleration: Constraining dark energy with CMB data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raveri, Marco; Hu, Bin; Frusciante, Noemi; Silvestri, Alessandra

2014-08-01

We introduce EFTCAMB/EFTCosmoMC as publicly available patches to the commonly used camb/CosmoMC codes. We briefly describe the structure of the codes, their applicability and main features. To illustrate the use of these patches, we obtain constraints on parametrized pure effective field theory and designer f(R) models, both on ΛCDM and wCDM background expansion histories, using data from Planck temperature and lensing potential spectra, WMAP low-ℓ polarization spectra (WP), and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). Upon inspecting the theoretical stability of the models on the given background, we find nontrivial parameter spaces that we translate into viability priors. We use different combinations of data sets to show their individual effects on cosmological and model parameters. Our data analysis results show that, depending on the adopted data sets, in the wCDM background case these viability priors could dominate the marginalized posterior distributions. Interestingly, with Planck +WP+BAO+lensing data, in f(R) gravity models, we get very strong constraints on the constant dark energy equation of state, w0∈(-1,-0.9997) (95% C.L.).

A Comparison of Predictive Thermo and Water Solvation Property Prediction Tools and Experimental Data for Selected Traditional Chemical Warfare Agents and Simulants II: COSMO RS and COSMOTherm

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-01

A COMPARISON OF PREDICTIVE THERMO AND WATER SOLVATION PROPERTY PREDICTION TOOLS AND EXPERIMENTAL DATA FOR...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A Comparison of Predictive Thermo and Water Solvation Property Prediction Tools and Experimental Data for Selected...1  2.  EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURE

A conceptual design for cosmo-biology experiments in Earth's Orbit.

PubMed

Hashimoto, H; Greenberg, M; Brack, A; Colangeli, L; Horneck, G; Navarro-Gonzalez, R; Raulin, F; Kouchi, A; Saito, T; Yamashita, M; Kobayashi, K

1998-06-01

A conceptual design was developed for a cosmo-biology experiment. It is intended to expose simulated interstellar ice materials deposited on dust grains to the space environment. The experimental system consists of a cryogenic system to keep solidified gas sample, and an optical device to select and amplify the ultraviolet part of the solar light for irradiation. By this approach, the long lasting chemical evolution of icy species could be examined in a much shorter time of exposure by amplification of light intensity. The removal of light at longer wavelength, which is ineffective to induce photochemical reactions, reduces the heat load to the cryogenic system that holds solidified reactants including CO as a constituent species of interstellar materials. Other major hardware components were also defined in order to achieve the scientific objectives of this experiment. Those are a cold trap maintained at liquid nitrogen temperature to prevent the contamination of the sample during the exposure, a mechanism to exchange multiple samples, and a system to perform bake-out of the sample exposure chamber. This experiment system is proposed as a candidate payload implemented on the exposed facility of Japanese Experiment Module on International Space Station.

Stability and subsidence across Rome (Italy) in 2011-2013 based on COSMO-SkyMed Persistent Scatterer Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francesca, Cigna; Lasaponara, Rosa; Nicola, Masini; Pietro, Milillo; Deodato, Tapete

2015-04-01

Ground stability of the built environment of the city of Rome in central Italy has been extensively investigated in the last years by using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), with focus on deformation of both the monuments of the historic centre (e.g., [1-2]) and the southern residential quarters (e.g., [3]). C-band ERS-1/2 and ENVISAT ASAR time series deformation analyses brought evidence of overall stability across the town centre, except for localized deformation concentrated in areas geologically susceptible to instability (e.g. western slope of the Palatine Hill), whereas clear subsidence patterns were detected over the compressible alluvial deposits lying in proximity of the Tiber River. To retrieve an updated picture of stability and subsidence across the city, we analysed a time series of 32 COSMO-SkyMed StripMap HIMAGE, right-looking, ascending mode scenes with an image swath of 40 km, 3-m resolution and HH polarization, acquired between 21 March 2011 and 10 June 2013, with repeat cycle mostly equal to 16 days. Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) processing was undertaken by using the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS) as detailed in [4], and more than 310,000 radar targets (i.e. PS) were identified, with an average target density of over 2,800 PS/km2. The performance of StaMPS to retrieve satisfactory PS coverage over the urban features of interest was assessed against their orientation and visibility to the satellite Line-Of-Sight, as well as their conservation history throughout the biennial investigated (2011-2013). In this work we discuss effects due to local land cover and land use by exploiting the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) European Urban Atlas (IT001L) of Rome at 1:10,000 scale, thereby also evaluating the capability of the X-band to spatially resolve targets coinciding with man-made structures in vegetated areas. Based on this assessment, our PSI results highlight those environmental constraints that can prevent, even at such high spatial resolution, obtaining satisfactory PS densities in peri-urban areas with high vegetation coverage. With regard to recent deformation patterns, COSMO-SkyMed time series confirm the persistence of subsidence processes in southern Rome. In areas of recent urbanization, such as that surrounding the Basilica of St Paul Outside-the-Walls, the estimated vertical motion velocity reaches values higher than -7.0 mm/yr. Further proof of the potentiality of COSMO-SkyMed constellation to extend almost seamlessly ground motion time series from previous SAR missions is offered by the deformation detected at the single-monument scale over the archaeological ruins of the Oppian Hill, the monuments and historical building in the riverside quarter of Trastevere, and the Basilica di San Saba within the Aurelian Walls. References [1] Tapete, D.; Fanti, R.; Cecchi, R.; Petrangeli, P.; Casagli, N. Satellite radar interferometry for monitoring and early-stage warning of structural instability in archaeological sites. J. Geophys. Eng. 2012, 9 S10-S25. [2] Tapete, D.; Casagli, N.; Fanti, R. Radar interferometry for early stage warning on monuments at risk. In Landslide Science and Practice; Margottini, C., Canuti, P., Sassa, K., Eds.; Springer: Berlin/Heidelberg, Germany, 2013; Volume 1, pp. 619-625. [3] Stramondo, S.; Bozzano, F.; Marra, F.; Wegmuller, U.; Cinti, F.R.; Moro, M.; Saroli, M. Subsidence induced by urbanisation in the city of Rome detected by advanced InSAR technique and geotechnical investigations. Remote Sens. Environ. 2008, 112, 3160-3172. [4] Cigna, F.; Lasaponara, R.; Masini, N.; Milillo, P.; Tapete, D. Persistent Scatterer Interferometry Processing of COSMO-SkyMed StripMap HIMAGE Time Series to Depict Deformation of the Historic Centre of Rome, Italy. Remote Sens. 2014, 6, 12593-12618.

Urban Modelling Performance of Next Generation SAR Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sefercik, U. G.; Yastikli, N.; Atalay, C.

2017-09-01

In synthetic aperture radar (SAR) technology, urban mapping and modelling have become possible with revolutionary missions TerraSAR-X (TSX) and Cosmo-SkyMed (CSK) since 2007. These satellites offer 1m spatial resolution in high-resolution spotlight imaging mode and capable for high quality digital surface model (DSM) acquisition for urban areas utilizing interferometric SAR (InSAR) technology. With the advantage of independent generation from seasonal weather conditions, TSX and CSK DSMs are much in demand by scientific users. The performance of SAR DSMs is influenced by the distortions such as layover, foreshortening, shadow and double-bounce depend up on imaging geometry. In this study, the potential of DSMs derived from convenient 1m high-resolution spotlight (HS) InSAR pairs of CSK and TSX is validated by model-to-model absolute and relative accuracy estimations in an urban area. For the verification, an airborne laser scanning (ALS) DSM of the study area was used as the reference model. Results demonstrated that TSX and CSK urban DSMs are compatible in open, built-up and forest land forms with the absolute accuracy of 8-10 m. The relative accuracies based on the coherence of neighbouring pixels are superior to absolute accuracies both for CSK and TSX.

Sensitivity of sea-level forecasting to the horizontal resolution and sea surface forcing for different configurations of an oceanographic model of the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bressan, Lidia; Valentini, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Montani, Andrea; Marsigli, Chiara; Stefania Tesini, Maria

2017-04-01

At the Hydro-meteo-climate service of the Regional environmental agency of Emilia-Romagna, Italy (Arpae-SIMC), the oceanographic numerical model AdriaROMS is used in the operational forecasting suite to compute sea level, temperature, salinity and 3-D current fields of the Adriatic Sea (northern Mediterranean Sea). In order to evaluate the performance of the sea-level forecast and to study different configurations of the ROMS model, two marine storms occurred on the Emilia Romagna coast during the winter 2015-2016 are investigated. The main focus of this study is to analyse the sensitivity of the model to the horizontal resolution and to the meteorological forcing. To this end, the model is run with two different configurations and with two horizontal grids at 1 and 2 km resolution. To study the influence of the meteorological forcing, the two storms have been reproduced by running ROMS in ensemble mode, forced by the 16-members of the meteorological ensemble COSMO-LEPS system. Possible optimizations of the model set-up are deduced by the comparison of the different run outputs.

Downscaling scheme to drive soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schomburg, Annika; Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf; Ament, Felix; Simmer, Clemens

2010-05-01

The earth's surface is characterized by heterogeneity at a broad range of scales. Weather forecast models and climate models are not able to resolve this heterogeneity at the smaller scales. Many processes in the soil or at the surface, however, are highly nonlinear. This holds, for example, for evaporation processes, where stomata or aerodynamic resistances are nonlinear functions of the local micro-climate. Other examples are threshold dependent processes, e.g., the generation of runoff or the melting of snow. It has been shown that using averaged parameters in the computation of these processes leads to errors and especially biases, due to the involved nonlinearities. Thus it is necessary to account for the sub-grid scale surface heterogeneities in atmospheric modeling. One approach to take the variability of the earth's surface into account is the mosaic approach. Here the soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model is run on an explicit higher resolution than the atmospheric part of a coupled model, which is feasible due to generally lower computational costs of a SVAT model compared to the atmospheric part. The question arises how to deal with the scale differences at the interface between the two resolutions. Usually the assumption of a homogeneous forcing for all sub-pixels is made. However, over a heterogeneous surface, usually the boundary layer is also heterogeneous. Thus, by assuming a constant atmospheric forcing again biases in the turbulent heat fluxes may occur due to neglected atmospheric forcing variability. Therefore we have developed and tested a downscaling scheme to disaggregate the atmospheric variables of the lower atmosphere that are used as input to force a SVAT model. Our downscaling scheme consists of three steps: 1) a bi-quadratic spline interpolation of the coarse-resolution field; 2) a "deterministic" part, where relationships between surface and near-surface variables are exploited; and 3) a noise-generation step, in which the still missing, not explained, variance is added as noise. The scheme has been developed and tested based on high-resolution (400 m) model output of the weather forecast (and regional climate) COSMO model. Downscaling steps 1 and 2 reduce the error made by the homogeneous assumption considerably, whereas the third step leads to close agreement of the sub-grid scale variance with the reference. This is, however, achieved at the cost of higher root mean square errors. Thus, before applying the downscaling system to atmospheric data a decision should be made whether the lowest possible errors (apply only downscaling step 1 and 2) or a most realistic sub-grid scale variability (apply also step 3) is desired. This downscaling scheme is currently being implemented into the COSMO model, where it will be used in combination with the mosaic approach. However, this downscaling scheme can also be applied to drive stand-alone SVAT models or hydrological models, which usually also need high-resolution atmospheric forcing data.

Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

2017-11-01

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.

Changes in Extreme Maximum Temperature Events and Population Exposure in China under Global Warming Scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C: Analysis Using the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Mingjin; Li, Xiucang; Sun, Hemin; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun

2018-02-01

We used daily maximum temperature data (1986-2100) from the COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode) regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events (EMTEs) with the intensity-area-duration method. Between 1986 and 2005 (reference period), the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330-1680 times yr-1, 31.4-33.3°C, and 1.76-3.88 million km2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5-392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986-2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13-6.84, 0.32-1.50, and 15.98%-30.68%, respectively, under 1.5°C warming; under 2.0°C warming, the increases are 1.73-12.48, 0.64-2.76, and 31.96%-50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5°C warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0°C warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%-39.2% and 26.6%-48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0°C warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0°C will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5°C.

Recent improvements of reactor physics codes in MHI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Shinya; Yamaji, Kazuya; Kirimura, Kazuki; Kamiyama, Yohei; Matsumoto, Hideki

2015-12-01

This paper introduces recent improvements for reactor physics codes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd(MHI). MHI has developed a new neutronics design code system Galaxy/Cosmo-S(GCS) for PWR core analysis. After TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi accident, it is required to consider design extended condition which has not been covered explicitly by the former safety licensing analyses. Under these circumstances, MHI made some improvements for GCS code system. A new resonance calculation model of lattice physics code and homogeneous cross section representative model for core simulator have been developed to apply more wide range core conditions corresponding to severe accident status such like anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) analysis and criticality evaluation of dried-up spent fuel pit. As a result of these improvements, GCS code system has very wide calculation applicability with good accuracy for any core conditions as far as fuel is not damaged. In this paper, the outline of GCS code system is described briefly and recent relevant development activities are presented.

Recent improvements of reactor physics codes in MHI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kosaka, Shinya, E-mail: shinya-kosaka@mhi.co.jp; Yamaji, Kazuya; Kirimura, Kazuki

2015-12-31

This paper introduces recent improvements for reactor physics codes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd(MHI). MHI has developed a new neutronics design code system Galaxy/Cosmo-S(GCS) for PWR core analysis. After TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi accident, it is required to consider design extended condition which has not been covered explicitly by the former safety licensing analyses. Under these circumstances, MHI made some improvements for GCS code system. A new resonance calculation model of lattice physics code and homogeneous cross section representative model for core simulator have been developed to apply more wide range core conditions corresponding to severe accident status such like anticipatedmore » transient without scram (ATWS) analysis and criticality evaluation of dried-up spent fuel pit. As a result of these improvements, GCS code system has very wide calculation applicability with good accuracy for any core conditions as far as fuel is not damaged. In this paper, the outline of GCS code system is described briefly and recent relevant development activities are presented.« less

Designing a Virtual Research Facility to motivate Professional-Citizen Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gay, Pamela

In order to handle the onslaught of data spilling from telescopes on the Earth and on orbit, CosmoQuest has created a virtual research facility that allows the public to collaborate with science teams on projects that would otherwise lack the necessary human resources. This second-generation citizen science site goes beyond asking people to click on images to also engaging them in taking classes, attending virtual seminars, and participating in virtual star parties. These features were introduced to try and expand the diversity of motivations that bring people to the project and to keep them engaged overtime - just as a research center seeks to bring a diversity of people together to work and learn over time. In creating the CosmoQuest Virtual Research Facility, we sought to answer the question, “What would happen if we provided the public with the same kinds of facilities scientists have, and invite them to be our collaborators?” It had already been observed that the public readily attends public science lectures, open houses at science facilities, and education programs such as star parties. It was hoped that by creating a central facility, we could build a community of people learning and doing science in a productive manner. In order to be successful, we needed to first create the facility, then test if people were coming both to learn and to do science, and finally to verify that people were doing legitimate science. During the past 18 months of operations, we have continued to work through each of these stages, as discussed talk. At this early date, progress is on-going, and much research remains to be done, but all indications show that we are on our way to building a community of people learning and doing science. During 2013-2014, a series of studies looked at the motivations of CosmoQuest users, as well as their forms of site interactions. During this talk, we will review these results, as well as the demographics of our user population.

Image Detective 2.0: Engaging Citizen Scientists with NASA Astronaut Photography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Higgins, Melissa; Graff, Paige Valderrama; Heydorn, James; Jagge, Amy; Vanderbloemen, Lisa; Stefanov, William; Runco, Susan; Lehan, Cory; Gay, Pamela

2017-01-01

Image Detective 2.0 engages citizen scientists with NASA astronaut photography of the Earth obtained by crew members on the International Space Station (ISS). Engaged citizen scientists are helping to build a more comprehensive and searchable database by geolocating this imagery and contributing to new imagery collections. Image Detective 2.0 is the newest addition to the suite of citizen scientist projects available through CosmoQuest, an effort led by the Astronomical Society of the Pacific (ASP) and supported through a NASA Science Mission Directorate Cooperative Agreement Notice award. CosmoQuest hosts a number of citizen science projects enabling individuals from around the world to engage in authentic NASA science. Image Detective 2.0, an effort that focuses on imagery acquired by astronauts on the International Space Station, builds on work initiated in 2012 by scientists and education specialists at the NASA Johnson Space Center. Through the many lessons learned, Image Detective 2.0 enhances the original project by offering new and improved options for participation. Existing users, as well as new Image Detective participants joining through the CosmoQuest platform, gain first-hand experience working with astronaut photography and become more engaged with this valuable data being obtained from the International Space Station. Citizens around the world are captivated by astronauts living and working in space. As crew members have a unique vantage point from which to view our Earth, the Crew Earth Observations (CEO) online database, referred to as the Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth (https://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/), provides a means for crew members to share their unique views of our home planet from the ISS with the scientific community and the public. Astronaut photography supports multiple uses including scientific investigations, visualizations, education, and outreach. These astronaut images record how the planet is changing over time, from human-made changes like urban growth and agriculture, to natural features and landforms such as tropical cyclones, aurora, coastlines, volcanoes and more. This imagery provides researchers on Earth with data to understand the planet from the perspective of the ISS, and is a useful complement to other remotely sensed datasets collected from robotic satellite platforms.

Preface: MHD wave phenomena in the solar interior and atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedun, Viktor; Srivastava, A. K.

2018-01-01

The Sun is our nearest star and this star produces various plasma wave processes and energetic events. These phenomena strongly influence interplanetary plasma dynamics and contribute to space-weather. The understanding of solar atmospheric dynamics requires hi-resolution modern observations which, in turn, further advances theoretical models of physical processes in the solar interior and atmosphere. In particular, it is essential to connect the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) wave processes with the small and large-scale solar phenomena vis-a-vis transport of energy and mass. With the advent of currently available and upcoming high-resolution space (e.g., IRIS, SDO, Hinode, Aditya-L1, Solar-C, Solar Orbiter), and ground-based (e.g., SST, ROSA, NLST, Hi-C, DKIST, EST, COSMO) observations, solar physicists are able to explore exclusive wave processes in various solar magnetic structures at different spatio-temporal scales.

Towards energy-efficient nonoscillatory forward-in-time integrations on lat-lon grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polkowski, Marcin; Piotrowski, Zbigniew; Ryczkowski, Adam

2017-04-01

The design of the next-generation weather prediction models calls for new algorithmic approaches allowing for robust integrations of atmospheric flow over complex orography at sub-km resolutions. These need to be accompanied by efficient implementations exposing multi-level parallelism, capable to run on modern supercomputing architectures. Here we present the recent advances in the energy-efficient implementation of the consistent soundproof/implicit compressible EULAG dynamical core of the COSMO weather prediction framework. Based on the experiences of the atmospheric dwarfs developed within H2020 ESCAPE project, we develop efficient, architecture agnostic implementations of fully three-dimensional MPDATA advection schemes and generalized diffusion operator in curvilinear coordinates and spherical geometry. We compare optimized Fortran implementation with preliminary C++ implementation employing the Gridtools library, allowing for integrations on CPU and GPU while maintaining single source code.

Correlation Between the Effective Neutrino Number and Curvature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Aaron; Archidiacono, M.; Cooray, A.; De Bernardis, F.; Melchiorri, A.; Smidt, J.

2012-01-01

Cosmological data seems to favor models with more than three neutrinos. This poster focuses on recent discussion regarding additional sterile neutrinos and neutrino mass constraints in cosmology. We present a theoretical argument for correlation between the number of effective neutrinos and the curvature of the universe. This naturally arises from simple considerations of distance measurements. For example, with the degree of damping prior to recombination fixed by observation, we find that if we allow for an open universe then the angular diameter distance increases. To counterbalance this effect the sound horizon distance must increase as well which corresponds to decreasing the effective neutrino number. This qualitative argument is confirmed by statistical analysis with CosmoMC adapted to include CMB anisotropy measurements from a variety of experiments. This research was supported by Asantha Cooray at the University of California, Irvine.

A downscaling scheme for atmospheric variables to drive soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schomburg, A.; Venema, V.; Lindau, R.; Ament, F.; Simmer, C.

2010-09-01

For driving soil-vegetation-transfer models or hydrological models, high-resolution atmospheric forcing data is needed. For most applications the resolution of atmospheric model output is too coarse. To avoid biases due to the non-linear processes, a downscaling system should predict the unresolved variability of the atmospheric forcing. For this purpose we derived a disaggregation system consisting of three steps: (1) a bi-quadratic spline-interpolation of the low-resolution data, (2) a so-called `deterministic' part, based on statistical rules between high-resolution surface variables and the desired atmospheric near-surface variables and (3) an autoregressive noise-generation step. The disaggregation system has been developed and tested based on high-resolution model output (400m horizontal grid spacing). A novel automatic search-algorithm has been developed for deriving the deterministic downscaling rules of step 2. When applied to the atmospheric variables of the lowest layer of the atmospheric COSMO-model, the disaggregation is able to adequately reconstruct the reference fields. Applying downscaling step 1 and 2, root mean square errors are decreased. Step 3 finally leads to a close match of the subgrid variability and temporal autocorrelation with the reference fields. The scheme can be applied to the output of atmospheric models, both for stand-alone offline simulations, and a fully coupled model system.

Description of the behavior of dichloroalkanes-containing solutions with three [bXmpy][BF4] isomers, using the experimental information of thermodynamic properties, 1H NMR spectral and the COSMO-RS-methodology.

PubMed

Fernández, Luis; Ortega, Juan; Palomar, José; Toledo, Francisco; Marrero, Elena

2015-02-26

This work studies the binaries of 1-butyl-X-methylpyridinium tetrafluoroborate [bXmpy][BF4] (X = 2, 3, and 4) with four 1,ω-dichloroalkanes, ω = 1-4, using the results obtained for the mixing properties h(E) and v(E) at two temperatures. The three isomers of the ionic liquid (IL) are weakly miscible with the 1,ω-dichloroalkanes when ω ≥ 5 and moderately soluble for ω = 4. The v(E)s of all the binaries present contractive effects, v(E) < 0, which are more pronounced with increasing temperature; the variation in v(E) with ω is positive, although this changes after ω = 4 due to problems of immiscibility. The energetic effects of the mixing process are exothermic in the solutions with the shorter dichloroalkanes, ω = 1 and 2, and this effect increases slightly with temperature. However, mildly exothermic effects are found in the binaries with larger halides, where (dh(E)/dT) > 0. The experimental data are correlated with a suitable equation. The study is completed with (1)H NMR measurements of both the pure compounds and some of the solutions, which showed minor diamagnetic shifts with increasing IL compositions, related to the anisotropy of the pyridine ring. The variation in h(E) with ω for a same IL, due to an increase in the contact surfaces, is related to the reduction in polarity which, in turn, depends on the smaller chemical shifts of the pure dihalide compounds. The COSMO-RS method determines the energetic effects of the mixing process and predicts an exothermic contribution for the electrostatic Misfit-interaction which is quantitatively very similar for the three IL isomers. The differences proposed by the model are mainly reflected in the van der Waals interactions, which are exothermic and clearly influenced by the position of the methylene group in the IL. The contribution made by hydrogen bonds is negligible.

Sensitivity of soil moisture initialization for decadal predictions under different regional climatic conditions in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodayar, S.; Sehlinger, A.; Feldmann, H.; Kottmeier, C.

2015-12-01

The impact of soil initialization is investigated through perturbation simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The focus of the investigation is to assess the sensitivity of simulated extreme periods, dry and wet, to soil moisture initialization in different climatic regions over Europe and to establish the necessary spin up time within the framework of decadal predictions for these regions. Sensitivity experiments consisted of a reference simulation from 1968 to 1999 and 5 simulations from 1972 to 1983. The Effective Drought Index (EDI) is used to select and quantify drought status in the reference run to establish the simulation time period for the sensitivity experiments. Different soil initialization procedures are investigated. The sensitivity of the decadal predictions to soil moisture initial conditions is investigated through the analysis of water cycle components' (WCC) variability. In an episodic time scale the local effects of soil moisture on the boundary-layer and the propagated effects on the large-scale dynamics are analysed. The results show: (a) COSMO-CLM reproduces the observed features of the drought index. (b) Soil moisture initialization exerts a relevant impact on WCC, e.g., precipitation distribution and intensity. (c) Regional characteristics strongly impact the response of the WCC. Precipitation and evapotranspiration deviations are larger for humid regions. (d) The initial soil conditions (wet/dry), the regional characteristics (humid/dry) and the annual period (wet/dry) play a key role in the time that soil needs to restore quasi-equilibrium and the impact on the atmospheric conditions. Humid areas, and for all regions, a humid initialization, exhibit shorter spin up times, also soil reacts more sensitive when initialised during dry periods. (e) The initial soil perturbation may markedly modify atmospheric pressure field, wind circulation systems and atmospheric water vapour distribution affecting atmospheric stability conditions, thus modifying precipitation intensity and distribution even several years after the initialization.

Theoretical study on the dimerization of Si(OH) 4 in aqueous solution and its dependence on temperature and dielectric constant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tossell, J. A.

2005-01-01

Energetics for the condensation dimerization reaction of monosilicic acid: 2Si(⇒SiOH+HO have been calculated quantum mechanically, in gas-phase and aqueous solution, over a range of temperatures and dielectric constants. The calculated gas phase energy, E g, for this reaction is -6.6 kcal/mol at the very accurate composite G2 level, but the vibrational, rotational and translational contributions to the free energy in the gas-phase, ΔG VRT, sum to + 2.5 kcal/mol and the hydration free energy contribution calculated with a polarizable continuum model, ΔΔG COSMO, for a dielectric constant of 78.5, is about + 6.2 kcal/mol. Thus, the free energy change for the reaction in aqueous solution at ambient conditions is about + 2.1 kcal/mol and the equilibrium constant is ˜10 -1.5, in reasonable agreement with experiment. As T increases, ΔG VRT increases slowly. As the dielectric constant decreases (for example, under high T and P conditions in the supercritical region), ΔΔG COSMO decreases substantially. Thus, at elevated T and P, if the effective dielectric constant of the aqueous fluid is 10 or less, the reaction becomes much more favorable, consistent with recent experimental observations. The PΔV contribution to the enthalpy is also considered, but cannot be accurately determined. We have also calculated 29Si-NMR shieldings and Raman frequencies for Si(OH) 4, Si 2O 7H 6 and some other oligomeric silicates. We correctly reproduce the separation of monomer and dimer peaks observed in the 29Si-NMR spectrra at ambient T and P. The Raman spectral data are somewhat ambiguous, and the new peaks seen at high T and P could arise either from the dimer or from a 3-ring trimer, which is calculated to be highly stabilized entropically at high T.

Development of Critical Technologies for the COSMO/SkyMed Hyperspectral Camera

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-10-01

Carbide (SiC) material (SiC or lightweighted Zerodur mirrors , carbon fiber technology. structures). - development of electronics blocks at high - High...investigation was Kcarried out to get the highest lightening factors on the Zerodur mirror substrates. Several samples of the TMA Fig. 5 - Prototypes of...implementation of state-of-the-art - manufacturing of very light mirrors with special manufacturing techniques for light components emphasis on Silicon

Parents' Appraisals of the Animacy and Likability of Socially Interactive Robots for Intervening with Young Children with Disabilities. Social Robots Research Reports, Number 2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunst, Carl J.; Trivette, Carol M.; Prior, Jeremy; Hamby, Deborah W.; Embler, Davon

2013-01-01

Findings from a survey of parents' ratings of seven different human-like qualities of four socially interactive robots are reported. The four robots were Popchilla, Keepon, Kaspar, and CosmoBot. The participants were 96 parents and other primary caregivers of young children with disabilities 1 to 12 years of age. Results showed that Popchilla, a…

Medicanes in an ocean-atmosphere coupled regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, Naveed; Brauch, Jennifer; Ahrens, Bodo

2014-05-01

So-called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes) are meso-scale, marine and warm core Mediterranean cyclones which exhibit some similarities with tropical cyclones. The strong cyclonic winds associated with them are a potential thread for highly populated coastal areas around the Mediterranean basin. In this study we employ an atmospheric limited-area model (COSMO-CLM) coupled with a one-dimensional ocean model (NEMO-1d) to simulate medicanes. The goal of this study is to assess the robustness of the coupled model to simulate these extreme events. For this purpose 11 historical medicane events are simulated by the atmosphere-only and the coupled models using different set-ups (horizontal grid-spacings: 0.44o, 0.22o, 0.088o; with/with-out spectral nudging). The results show that at high resolution the coupled model is not only able to simulate all medicane events but also improves the simulated track length, warm core, and wind speed of simulated medicanes compared to atmosphere-only simulations. In most of the cases the medicanes trajectories and structures are better represented in coupled simulations compared to atmosphere-only simulations. We conclude that the coupled model is a suitable tool for systemic and detailed study of historical medicane events and also for future projections.

Object-based land cover classification based on fusion of multifrequency SAR data and THAICHOTE optical imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukawattanavijit, Chanika; Srestasathiern, Panu

2017-10-01

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) information are significant to observe and evaluate environmental change. LULC classification applying remotely sensed data is a technique popularly employed on a global and local dimension particularly, in urban areas which have diverse land cover types. These are essential components of the urban terrain and ecosystem. In the present, object-based image analysis (OBIA) is becoming widely popular for land cover classification using the high-resolution image. COSMO-SkyMed SAR data was fused with THAICHOTE (namely, THEOS: Thailand Earth Observation Satellite) optical data for land cover classification using object-based. This paper indicates a comparison between object-based and pixel-based approaches in image fusion. The per-pixel method, support vector machines (SVM) was implemented to the fused image based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA). For the objectbased classification was applied to the fused images to separate land cover classes by using nearest neighbor (NN) classifier. Finally, the accuracy assessment was employed by comparing with the classification of land cover mapping generated from fused image dataset and THAICHOTE image. The object-based data fused COSMO-SkyMed with THAICHOTE images demonstrated the best classification accuracies, well over 85%. As the results, an object-based data fusion provides higher land cover classification accuracy than per-pixel data fusion.

A cross-cultural content-analytic comparison of the hookup culture in U.S. and Dutch teen girl magazines.

PubMed

Joshi, Suchi Pradyumn; Peter, Jochen; Valkenburg, Patti M

2014-01-01

This quantitative content analysis investigated the hookup culture in U.S. and Dutch teen girl magazines. Using Hofstede's cultural dimension of masculinity/femininity, the hookup culture (i.e., the relational context of sex, emotional context of sex, specific sexual activities, and contraceptives) was examined in 2,496 stories from all 2006 through 2008 issues of the three most popular U.S. (i.e., Seventeen, CosmoGirl! U.S. edition, and Teen) and Dutch teen girl magazines (i.e., Fancy, CosmoGirl! Netherlands edition, and Girlz!). Regarding the relational context of sex, stories about casual sex occurred more often in U.S. magazines, and Dutch magazines focused more on committed sex. Dutch magazines also emphasized sex within the emotional context of love more often than did U.S. magazines. In terms of sexual activities, coital sex was mentioned more often in U.S. coverage, while petting was mentioned more frequently in Dutch coverage. Condoms were covered more positively in U.S. magazines than in Dutch magazines. Overall, the hookup culture seems to be more visible in U.S. magazines for the occurrence of casual sex and lack of love stories, whereas it does not emerge in Dutch magazines due to the presence of committed sex and love-related articles.

Bayesian explorations of fault slip evolution over the earthquake cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duputel, Z.; Jolivet, R.; Benoit, A.; Gombert, B.

2017-12-01

The ever-increasing amount of geophysical data continuously opens new perspectives on fundamental aspects of the seismogenic behavior of active faults. In this context, the recent fleet of SAR satellites including Sentinel-1 and COSMO-SkyMED permits the use of InSAR for time-dependent slip modeling with unprecedented resolution in time and space. However, existing time-dependent slip models rely on spatial smoothing regularization schemes, which can produce unrealistically smooth slip distributions. In addition, these models usually do not include uncertainty estimates thereby reducing the utility of such estimates. Here, we develop an entirely new approach to derive probabilistic time-dependent slip models. This Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method involves a series of transitional steps to predict and update posterior Probability Density Functions (PDFs) of slip as a function of time. We assess the viability of our approach using various slow-slip event scenarios. Using a dense set of SAR images, we also use this method to quantify the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of slip along a creeping segment of the North Anatolian Fault. This allows us to track a shallow aseismic slip transient lasting for about a month with a maximum slip of about 2 cm.

Decadal prediction of European soil moisture from 1961 to 2010 using a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mieruch-Schnuelle, S.; Schädler, G.; Feldmann, H.

2014-12-01

The German national research program on decadal climate prediction(MiKlip) aims at the development of an operational decadal predictionsystem. To explore the potential of decadal predictions a hindcastensemble from 1961 to 2010 has been generated by the MPI-ESM, the newEarth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Toimprove the decadal predictions on higher spatial resolutions wedownscaled the MPI-ESM simulations by the regional model COSMO-CLM(CCLM) for Europe. In this study we will characterize and validatethe predictability of extreme states of soil moisture in Europesimulated by the MPI-ESM and the value added by the CCLM. The wateramount stored in the soil is a crucial component of the climate systemand especially important for agriculture, and has an influence onevaporation, groundwater and runoff. Thus, skillful prediction of soilmoisture in the order of years up to a decade could be used tomitigate risk and benefit society. Since soil moisture observationsare rare and validation of model output is difficult, we will ratherinvestigate the effective drought index (EDI), which can be retrievedsolely from precipitation data. Therefore we show that the EDI is agood estimator of the soil water content.

Regional climate simulations with COSMO-CLM over MENA-CORDEX domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galluccio, Salvatore; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Montesarchio, Myriam

2014-05-01

In the frame of WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), a set of common Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD) domains has been defined, as a prerequisite for the development of model evaluation and climate projection frameworks. CORDEX domains encompass the majority of land areas of the world. In this work, climate simulations have been performed over MENA-CORDEX domain, which includes North-Africa, southern Europe and the whole Arabian peninsula. The non-hydrostatic regional climate model COSMO-CLM has been used. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A series of simulations has been conducted over the MENA-CORDEX area at spatial resolution of 0.44°. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to adjust the model configuration to better reproduce the observed climate data. The numerical simulations were driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis (horizontal resolution of 0.703°) for the period 1979-1984; the first year, was considered as a spin up period. The validation was performed by using several data sets: CRU data set was used to validate temperature, precipitation and cloud cover; MERRA data set was used to validate temperature and precipitation and GPCP for precipitation. The model sensitivity to the external parameters was tested considering two different configurations for the surface albedo. In the first one, albedo is only function of soil-type whereas in the second configuration it is prescribed by two external fields for dry and saturated soil based on MODIS data. Moreover, we tested two aerosol distributions as well, namely the default Tanre aerosol distribution and aerosol maps according to Tegen (NASA/GISS). We found, as expected, a significant sensitivity, in particular on the African region. We also varied tuning and physical parameters, such as the scaling factor for the thickness of the laminar boundary layer for heat, which defines the layer with non-turbulent characteristics, mean entrainment rate for shallow convection, cloud ice threshold for autoconversion, radiation and clouds. We choose such parameters following several literature works, which showed that these parameters mostly affect the fields simulated by the model. However, it is known that the sensitivity of a RCM with respect to parameter variations depends, in general, on the model domain, the temporal and spatial scales and the model variables considered. We made a first set of simulations varying one parameter at a time, using Taylor's diagrams, as well as seasonal cycles and bias maps to take tracking changes in the model performance. Successively, we run a second set of simulations in which we varied two or three parameters at a time to get an optimal configuration. The selected configuration is being used to carry out simulations on a 30-years past period, starting from 1979, for three horizontal resolutions, namely 0.44°, 0.22° and 0.11°.

Monitoring and understanding crustal deformation by means of GPS and InSAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerbini, Susanna; Prati, Claudio; Bruni, Sara; Errico, Maddalena; Musicò, Elvira; Novali, Fabrizio; Santi, Efisio

2014-05-01

Monitoring deformation of the Earth's crust by using data acquired by both the GNSS and SAR techniques allows describing crustal movements with high spatial and temporal resolution. This is a key contribution for achieving a deeper and better insight of geodynamic processes. Combination of the two techniques provides a very powerful means, however, before combing the different data sets it is important to properly understand their respective contribution. For this purpose, strictly simultaneous and long time series would be necessary. This is not, in general, a common case due to the relatively long SAR satellites revisit time. A positive exception is represented by the data set of COSMO SKYMed (CSK) images made available for this study by the Italian Space Agency (ASI). The flyover area encompass the city of Bologna and the smaller nearby town of Medicina where permanent GPS stations are operational. At the times of the CSK flyovers, we compared the GPS and SAR Up and East coordinates of a few stations as well as differential tropospheric delays derived by both techniques. The GPS time series were carefully screened and corrected for the presence of discontinuities by adopting a dedicated statistical procedure. The comparisons of both the estimated deformation and the tropospheric delays are encouraging and highlight the need for having available a more evenly sampled SAR data set.

Performance evaluation of a non-hydrostatic regional climate model over the Mediterranean/Black Sea area and climate projections for the XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, Paola; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Montesarchio, Myriam; Zollo, Alessandra Lucia

2013-04-01

In the framework of the Work Package 4 (Developing integrated tools for environmental assessment) of PERSEUS Project, high resolution climate simulations have been performed, with the aim of furthering knowledge in the field of climate variability at regional scale, its causes and impacts. CMCC is a no profit centre whose aims are the promotion, research coordination and scientific activities in the field of climate changes. In this work, we show results of numerical simulation performed over a very wide area (13W-46E; 29-56N) at spatial resolution of 14 km, which includes the Mediterranean and Black Seas, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. It is a non-hydrostatic model for the simulation of atmospheric processes, developed by the DWD-Germany for weather forecast services; successively, the model has been updated by the CLM-Community, in order to develop climatic applications. It is the only documented numerical model system in Europe designed for spatial resolutions down to 1 km with a range of applicability encompassing operational numerical weather prediction, regional climate modelling the dispersion of trace gases and aerosol and idealised studies and applicable in all regions of the world for a wide range of available climate simulations from global climate and NWP models. Different reasons justify the development of a regional model: the first is the increasing number of works in literature asserting that regional models have also the features to provide more detailed description of the climate extremes, that are often more important then their mean values for natural and human systems. The second one is that high resolution modelling shows adequate features to provide information for impact assessment studies. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A simulation covering the period 1971-2000 and driven by ERA40 reanalysis has been performed, in order to assess the capability of the model to reproduce the present climate, with "perfect boundary conditions". A comparison, in terms of 2-metre temperature and precipitation, with EOBS dataset will be shown and discussed, in order to analyze the capabilities in simulating the main features of the observed climate over a wide area, at high spatial resolution. Then, a comparison between the results of COSMO-CLM driven by the global model CMCC-MED (whose atmospheric component is ECHAM5) and by ERA40 will be provided for a characterization of the errors induced by the global model. Finally, climate projections on the examined area for the XXI century, considering the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the future, will be provided. In this work a special emphasis will be issued to the analysis of the capability to reproduce not only the average climate trend but also extremes of the present and future climate, in terms of temperature, precipitation and wind.

Assessment of temperature and precipitation over Mediterranean Area and Black Sea with non hydrostatic high resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, P.; Montesarchio, M.; Zollo, A.; Bucchignani, E.

2012-12-01

In the framework of the Italian GEMINA Project (program of expansion and development of the Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), high resolution climate simulations have been performed, with the aim of furthering knowledge in the field of climate variability at regional scale, its causes and impacts. CMCC is a no profit centre whose aims are the promotion, research coordination and scientific activities in the field of climate changes. In this work, we show results of numerical simulation performed over a very wide area (13W-46E; 29-56N) at spatial resolution of 14 km, which includes all the Mediterranean Sea, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. It is a non-hydrostatic model for the simulation of atmospheric processes, developed by the DWD-Germany for weather forecast services; successively, the model has been updated by the CLM-Community, in order to develop climatic applications. It is the only documented numerical model system in Europe designed for spatial resolutions down to 1 km with a range of applicability encompassing operational numerical weather prediction, regional climate modelling the dispersion of trace gases and aerosol and idealised studies and applicable in all regions of the world for a wide range of available climate simulations from global climate and NWP models. Different reasons justify the development of a regional model: the first is the increasing number of works in literature asserting that regional models have also the features to provide more detailed description of the climate extremes, that are often more important then their mean values for natural and human systems. The second one is that high resolution modelling shows adequate features to provide information for impact assessment studies. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A simulation covering the period 1971-2000 and driven by ERA40 reanalysis has been performed, in order to assess the capability of the model to reproduce the present climate, with "perfect boundary conditions". A comparison, in terms of 2-metre temperature and precipitation, with EOBS dataset will be shown and discussed, in order to analyze the capabilities in simulating the main features of the observed climate over a wide area, at high spatial resolution. Then, a comparison between the results of COSMO-CLM driven by the global model CMCC-MED (whose atmospheric component is ECHAM5) and by ERA40 will be provided for a characterization of the errors induced by the global model. Finally, climate projections on the examined area for the XXI century, considering the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the future, will be provided. In this work a special emphasis will be issued to the analysis of the capability to reproduce not only the average climate patterns but also extremes of the present and future climate, in terms of temperature, precipitation and wind.

Mesoscale high-resolution modeling of extreme wind speeds over western water areas of the Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platonov, Vladimir S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

2016-11-01

A statistical analysis of extreme weather events over coastal areas of the Russian Arctic based on observational data has revealed many interesting features of wind velocity distributions. It has been shown that the extremes contain data belonging to two different statistical populations. Each of them is reliably described by a Weibull distribution. According to the standard terminology, these sets of extremes are named ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’. The ‘dragons’ are responsible for most extremes, surpassing the ‘black swans’ by 10 - 30 %. Since the data of the global climate model INM-CM4 do not contain ‘dragons’, the wind speed extremes are investigated on the mesoscale using the COSMO-CLM model. The modelling results reveal no differences between the ‘swans’ and ‘dragons’ situations. It could be associated with the poor sample data used. However, according to many case studies and modeling results we assume that it is caused by a rare superposition of large-scale synoptic factors and many local meso- and microscale factors (surface, coastline configuration, etc.). Further studies of extreme wind speeds in the Arctic, such as ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’, are necessary to focus on non-hydrostatic high-resolution atmospheric modelling using downscaling techniques.

Performance analysis of coupled and uncoupled hydrodynamic and wave models in the northern Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busca, Claudia; Coluccelli, Alessandro; Valentini, Andrea; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bonaldo, Davide; Bortoluzzi, Giovanni; Carniel, Sandro; Falcieri, Francesco; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Ravaioli, Mariangela; Riminucci, Francesco; Sclavo, Mauro; Russo, Aniello

2014-05-01

The complex dynamics of the Adriatic Sea are the result of geographical position, orography and bathymetry, as well as rivers discharge and meteorological conditions that influence, more strongly, the shallow northern part. Such complexity requires a constant monitoring of marine conditions in order to support several activities (marine resources management, naval operations, emergency management, shipping, tourism, as well as scientific ones). Platforms, buoys and mooring located in Adriatic Sea supply almost continuously real time punctual information, which can be spatially extended, with some limitations, by drifters and remote sensing. Operational forecasting systems represent valid tools to provide a complete tridimensional coverage of the area, with a high spatial and temporal resolution. The Hydro-Meteo-Clima Service of the Emilia-Romagna Environmental Agency (ARPA-SIMC, Bologna, Italy) and the Dept. of Life and Environmental Sciences of Università Politecnica delle Marche (DISVA-UNIVPM, Ancona, Italy), in collaboration with the Institute of Marine Science of the National Research Council (ISMAR-CNR, Italy) operationally run several wave and hydrodynamic models on the Adriatic Sea. The main implementations are based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the coupling of the former two models in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) system. Horizontal resolutions of the different systems range from the 2 km of AdriaROMS to the 0.5 km of the recently implemented northern Adriatic COAWST. Forecasts are produced every day for the subsequent 72 hour with hourly resolution. All the systems compute the fluxes exchanged through the interface with the atmosphere from the numerical weather prediction system named COSMO-I7, an implementation for Italy of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model, at 7 km horizontal resolution. Considering the several operational implementations currently running, there is the need to: assess their forecast skill; quantitatively evaluate if the new, coupled systems provide better performances than the uncoupled ones; individuate weaknesses and eventual time trends in the forecasts quality, their causes, and actions to improve the systems. This work presents a first effort aimed to satisfy such need. We employ in situ and remote sensing data collected starting from November 2011, in particular: temperature and salinity data collected during several oceanographic cruises, sea surface temperature derived from satellite measurements, waves, sea level and currents measurements from oceanographic buoys and platforms; specific observational activities funded by the Italian Flagship project RITMARE allowed to collect new measurements in NA coastal areas. Data-model comparison is firstly performed with exploratory qualitative comparisons in order to highlight discrepancies between observed and forecasted data, then a quantitative comparison is performed through the computation of standard statistical scores (root mean square error, mean error, mean bias, standard deviation, cross-correlation). Results are plotted in Taylor diagrams for a rapid evaluation of the overall performances.

Phenol-quinone tautomerism in (arylazo)naphthols and the analogous Schiff bases: benchmark calculations.

PubMed

Ali, S Tahir; Antonov, Liudmil; Fabian, Walter M F

2014-01-30

Tautomerization energies of a series of isomeric [(4-R-phenyl)azo]naphthols and the analogous Schiff bases (R = N(CH3)2, OCH3, H, CN, NO2) are calculated by LPNO-CEPA/1-CBS using the def2-TZVPP and def2-QZVPP basis sets for extrapolation. The performance of various density functionals (B3LYP, M06-2X, PW6B95, B2PLYP, mPW2PLYP, PWPB95) as well as MP2 and SCS-MP2 is evaluated against these results. M06-2X and SCS-MP2 yield results close to the LPNO-CEPA/1-CBS values. Solvent effects (CCl4, CHCl3, CH3CN, and CH3OH) are treated by a variety of bulk solvation models (SM8, IEFPCM, COSMO, PBF, and SMD) as well as explicit solvation (Monte Carlo free energy perturbation using the OPLSAA force field).

Mössbauer properties of the diferric cluster and the differential iron(II)-binding affinity of the iron sites in protein R2 of class Ia Escherichia coli ribonucleotide reductase: a DFT/electrostatics study.

PubMed

Han, Wen-Ge; Sandala, Gregory M; Giammona, Debra Ann; Bashford, Donald; Noodleman, Louis

2011-11-14

The R2 subunit of class-Ia ribonucleotide reductase (RNR) from Escherichia coli (E. coli) contains a diiron active site. Starting from the apo-protein and Fe(II) in solution at low Fe(II)/apoR2 ratios, mononuclear Fe(II) binding is observed indicating possible different Fe(II) binding affinities for the two alternative sites. Further, based on their Mössbauer spectroscopy and two-iron-isotope reaction experiments, Bollinger et al. (J. Am. Chem. Soc., 1997, 119, 5976-5977) proposed that the site Fe1, which bonds to Asp84, should be associated with the higher observed (57)Fe Mössbauer quadrupole splitting (2.41 mm s(-1)) and lower isomer shift (0.45 mm s(-1)) in the Fe(III)Fe(III) state, site Fe2, which is further from Tyr122, should have a greater affinity for Fe(II) binding than site Fe1, and Fe(IV) in the intermediate X state should reside at site Fe2. In this paper, using density functional theory (DFT) incorporated with the conductor-like screening (COSMO) solvation model and with the finite-difference Poisson-Boltzmann self-consistent reaction field (PB-SCRF) methodologies, we have demonstrated that the observed large quadrupole splitting for the diferric state R2 does come from site Fe1(III) and it is mainly caused by the binding position of the carboxylate group of the Asp84 sidechain. Further, a series of active site clusters with mononuclear Fe(II) binding at either site Fe1 or Fe2 have been studied, which show that with a single dielectric medium outside the active site quantum region, there is no energetic preference for Fe(II) binding at one site over another. However, when including the explicit extended protein environment in the PB-SCRF model, the reaction field favors the Fe(II) binding at site Fe2 rather than at site Fe1 by ~9 kcal mol(-1). Therefore our calculations support the proposal of the previous Mössbauer spectroscopy and two-iron-isotope reaction experiments by Bollinger et al.

Coca and poppy eradication in Colombia: environmental and human health assessment of aerially applied glyphosate.

PubMed

Solomon, Keith R; Anadón, Arturo; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Cerdeira, Antonio L; Marshall, Jon; Sanin, Luz-Helena

2007-01-01

The production of coca and poppy as well as the processing and production of cocaine and heroin involve significant environmental impacts. Both coca and poppy are grown intensively in a process that involves the clearing of land in remote areas, the planting of the crop, and protection against pests such as weeds, insects, and pathogens. The aerial spray program to control coca and poppy production in Colombia with the herbicide glyphosate is conducted with modern state-of-the-art aircraft and spray equipment. As a result of the use of best available spray and navigation technology, the likelihood of accidental off-target spraying is small and is estimated to be less than 1% of the total area sprayed. Estimated exposures in humans resulting from direct overspray, contact with treated foliage after reentry to fields, inhalation, diet, and drinking water were small and infrequent. Analyses of surface waters in five watersheds showed that, on most occasions, glyphosate was not present at measurable concentrations; only two samples had residues just above the method detection limit of 25 microg/L. Concentrations of glyphosate in air were predicted to be very small because of negligible volatility. Glyphosate in soils that are directly sprayed will be tightly bound and biologically unavailable and have no residual activity. Concentrations of glyphosate plus Cosmo-Flux will be relatively large in shallow surface waters that are directly oversprayed (maximum instantaneous concentration of 1,229microgAE/L in water 30cm deep); however, no information was available on the number of fields in close proximity to surface waters, and thus it was not possible to estimate the likelihood of such contamination. The formulation used in Colombia, a mixture of glyphosate and Cosmo-Flux, has low toxicity to mammals by all routes of exposure, although some temporary eye irritation may occur. Published epidemiological studies have not suggested a strong or consistent linkage between glyphosate use and specific human health outcomes. An epidemiology study conducted in Colombia did not show any association between time to pregnancy in humans and the use of glyphosate in eradication spraying. The mixture of glyphosate and Cosmo-Flux was not toxic to honeybees. The mixture was, however, more toxic to the alga Selenastrum, the cladoceran Daphnia magna, fathead minnow, and rainbow trout than formulated glyphosate (Roundup) alone. Studies on the use of glyphosate in agriculture and forestry have shown that direct effects on nontarget organisms other than plants are unlikely. Indirect effects on terrestrial arthropods and other wildlife may be the result of habitat alteration and environmental change brought about by the removal of plants by glyphosate. Because of the lack of residual activity, recovery of glyphosate-treated areas in Colombia is expected to be rapid because of good plant growth conditions. However, return to the conditions of tropical old-growth forest that existed before clear-cutting and burning may take hundreds of years, not from the use of glyphosate but because of the clear-cutting and burning, which are the primary cause of effects in the environment. The risk assessment concluded that glyphosate and Cosmo-Flux did not present a significant risk to human health. In the entire cycle of coca and poppy production and eradication, human health risks associated with physical injury during clear-cutting and burning and the use of pesticides for protection of the illicit crops were judged to be considerably more important than those from exposure to glyphosate. For the environment, direct risks from the use of glyphosate and Cosmo-Flux to terrestrial mammals and birds were judged to be negligible. Moderate risks could occur in aquatic organisms in shallow surface waters that are oversprayed during the eradication program. However, the frequency of occurrence and extent to which this happens are unknown as data on the proximity of surface waters to coca fields were not available. Considering the effects of the entire cycle of coca and poppy production and eradication, clear-cutting and burning and displacement of the natural flora and fauna were identified as the greatest environmental risks and are considerably more important than those from the use of glyphosate for the control of coca and poppy.

A green analytical chemistry approach for lipid extraction: computation methods in the selection of green solvents as alternative to hexane.

PubMed

Cascant, Mari Merce; Breil, Cassandra; Garrigues, Salvador; de la Guardia, Miguel; Fabiano-Tixier, Anne Silvie; Chemat, Farid

2017-05-01

There is a great interest in finding alternatives and green solvents in extraction processes to replace petroleum based solvents. In order to investigate these possibilities, computational methods, as Hansen solubility parameters (HSP) and conductor-like screening model for real solvent (COSMO-RS), were used in this work to predict the solvation power of a series of solvents in salmon fish lipids. Additionally, experimental studies were used to evaluate the performance in lipids extraction using 2-methyltetrahydrofurane, cyclopentyl methyl ether, dimethyl carbonate, isopropanol, ethanol, ethyl acetate, p-cymene and d-limonene compared with hexane. Lipid classes of extracts were obtained by using high performance thin-layer chromatography (HPTLC), whereas gas chromatography with a flame ionization detector (GC/FID) technique was employed to obtain fatty acid profiles. Some differences between theoretical and experimental results were observed, especially regarding the behavior of p-cymene and d-limonene, which separate from the predicted capability. Results obtained from HPTLC indicated that p-cymene and d-limonene extract triglycerides (TAGs) and diglycerides (DAGs) at levels of 73 and 19%, respectively, whereas the other studied extracts contain between 75 and 76% of TAGs and between 16 and 17% of DAGs. Fatty acid profiles, obtained by using GC-FID, indicated that saturated fatty acids (SFAs) between 19.5 and 19.9% of extracted oil, monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) in the range between 43.5 and 44.9%, and PUFAs between 31.2 and 34.6% were extracted. p-Cymene and limonene extracts contained lower percentages than the other studied solvents of some PUFAs due probably to the fact that these unsaturated fatty acids are more susceptible to oxidative degradation than MUFAs. Ethyl acetate has been found to be the best alternative solvent to hexane for the extraction of salmon oil lipids. Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

The simulation of UV spectroscopy and electronic analysis of temozolomide and dacarbazine chemical decomposition to their metabolites.

PubMed

Khalilian, M Hossein; Mirzaei, Saber; Taherpour, Avat Arman

2016-11-01

The electronic features of anti-tumor agent, temozolomide, and its degradation products (MTIC and metabolite AIC) have been traced by means of UV absorption spectroscopy in vacuo and aqueous media. For comparison, electronic spectra of related structures and drugs (e.g., dacarbazine) were also investigated. These investigations were carried out using time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) method while the conductor like screening model (COSMO) were applied for the inclusion of solvent effects in electronic spectra. From functional benchmarking, two methods; B3LYP and O3LYP were selected among several other methods with 6-311+G(2d,p) basis set aiming to get the best results in accord with the experimental values. An assessment of the obtained spectra has shown that O3LYP functional gives a mean absolute error (MAE) from experimental absorption peaks of 4.3 nm compared to the 7.2 nm MAE value at B3LYP level in aqueous media. Furthermore, since the structural and tautomeric conformers affect the electronic spectra, conformational preferences have been analyzed in temozolomide, dacarbazine, and their related structures. Temozolomide structure possesses two rotamers that differ in the orientation of carboxamide moiety with a small energy difference (energy difference of 1.39 kcal mol -1 in vacuo and 0.35 kcal mol -1 in aqueous media at B3LYP/6-311++G(2df,3pd). The more stable and meta-stable TMZ rotamer have shown their absorption maxima at 329-334 nm, respectively, at O3LYP level in aqueous media. Applying statistical calculation according to Boltzmann population formula at 25 °C and computed weighed mean estimates the λ max of temozolomide at 331 nm, which is in notable agreement with the experimental value (330 nm). Moreover, molecular orbital composition analysis has been conducted in order to interpret these findings. Graphical Abstract Temozolomide and dacarbazine.

The severe hailstorm in Germany on 28 July 2013: Characteristics and meteorological conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunz, Michael; Blahak, Ulrich; Handwerker, Jan; Schmidberger, Manuel; Mohr, Susanna; Jürgen Punge, Heinz; Fluck, Elody; Mühr, Bernhard

2015-04-01

At the end of July 2013, a series of violent thunderstorms with large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain affected several parts of Germany. These storms were triggered by pre-frontal convergence zones that formed within unstable air masses ahead of a low pressure system named Andreas. They marked the end of a short, but intense heat wave with temperatures up to 38°C. On 28 July, two supercell thunderstorms formed in the Rhine valley upstream of the Black Forest Mountains and moved almost parallel over the Swabian Jura and Bavaria. While the northern cell was weaker, the southern cell substantially intensified in the first hours and created hailstones with diameters of up to 8 cm. The hail fell mainly over a heavily populated region between the cities of Reutlingen and Tübingen with a high concentration of exposed assets. The track of that supercell ended in the north of Czech Republic and had a length of 500 km. Approximately 80,000 buildings were severely damaged by this major hailstorm. In total, insured loss was estimated to amount around 2 bn EURO, which is even higher than that related to the June flood in Germany in the same year. In this paper we investigate the temporal evolution and the characteristics of the most damaging supercell on 28 July by combining different data from remote sensing instruments such as radar, satellite, and lightning detection systems with ground-based observations and reports from eye-witnesses and a crop insurance company. Additional simulations with the Consortium for Small Scale Modelling COSMO-DE model with different setups reveal the important role of the cold pool for the triggering of the most severe hail cell. It will be shown that a major problem for simulating the storm was its initiation, while, once triggered artificially by 'warm bubbles', its track could be simulated rather well over several hours. Moreover, the operational COSMO version has some problems to simulate the observed reflectivity structure of the hailstorm, while a two-moment microphysical scheme yields results in very good agreement to the observations. Finally, a historical context is provided by comparing that event with other severe hailstorms that occurred over recent decades in Germany.

Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C on precipitation patterns in China by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Huang, Jinlong; Wang, Yanjun; Wen, Shanshan; Zeng, Xiaofan; Su, Buda

2018-05-01

Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980-2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400-800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual precipitation is expected to decrease in southeastern China. Therefore, flood risk in northern China and drought risk in southern China should draw more attention for a global air temperature increase from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C.

Westerly jet stream and past millennium climate change in Arid Central Asia simulated by COSMO-CLM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah, Bijan; Sodoudi, Sahar; Cubasch, Ulrich

2016-05-01

This study tackles one of the most debated questions around the evolution of Central Asian climate: the "Puzzle" of moisture changes in Arid Central Asia (ACA) throughout the past millennium. A state-of-the-art Regional Climate Model (RCM) is subsequently employed to investigate four different 31-year time slices of extreme dry and wet spells, chosen according to changes in the driving data, in order to analyse the spatio-temporal evolution of the moisture variability in two different climatological epochs: Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). There is a clear regime behavior and bimodality in the westerly Jet phase space throughout the past millennium in ACA. The results indicate that the regime changes during LIA show a moist ACA and a dry East China. During the MCA, the Kazakhstan region shows a stronger response to the westerly jet equatorward shift than during the LIA. The out-of-phase pattern of moisture changes between India and ACA exists during both the LIA and the MCA. However, the pattern is more pronounced during the LIA.

Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard; Price, Layne C.

2015-09-01

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitly describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.

Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard; Price, Layne C., E-mail: g.aslanyan@auckland.ac.nz, E-mail: r.easther@auckland.ac.nz, E-mail: lpri691@aucklanduni.ac.nz

2015-09-01

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitlymore » describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.« less

COSMO - SkyMed Mission Overview

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-10-01

antenna with range and cross-range steering capabilities; The SAR Payload is an X-band Radar which 0 development and qualification of low mass ...summarised as follows: * Swaths: 20 Kmn to 300 Km SIlfale sflos" Swaccs: regKion: t 350 (a) to support the Payload mass (on ground,"• Access region: -/+ 35...real-time product is requested); situ" product delivery. This raises the problem of the size of the data to be transmitted and the geo- Customisation

COSMO-RS analysis on mixing properties obtained for the systems 1-butyl-X-methylpyridinium tetrafluoroborate [X = 2,3,4] and 1,ω-dibromoalkanes [ω = 1-6].

PubMed

Navas, Ana; Ortega, Juan; Palomar, José; Díaz, Carlos; Vreekamp, Remko

2011-05-07

A theoretical-experimental study for a set of 18 binary systems comprised of [bXmpy][BF(4)] (X=2-4) + 1,ω-Br(CH(2))(v)Br (v =ω=1-6) at a temperature of 298.15 K is presented. The solubility curves are determined for each binary system, establishing the intervals of measurement for the excess properties, H(E)(m) and V(E)(m). These properties are then determined for those systems that present a miscibility zone. Binary systems containing 1,ω-dibromoalkanes with ω=5,6 present reduced solubility intervals at the temperature of 298.15 K. However, the mixtures with 1,1-dibromomethane were totally miscible with the three isomers of 1-butyl-X-methylpyridinium tetrafluoroborate. Mixtures with dibromomethane present H(E)(m) <0, whereas H(E)(m) >0 for the other binary systems. Sigmoidal curves were observed for the V(E)(m) describing expansion and contraction processes for all the systems, except for the mixtures of [b2mpy][BF(4)] with the smaller dibromoalkanes, which present contraction effects. The COSMO-RS methodology was used to estimate the solubilities and the intermolecular interaction energies, giving an acceptable explanation of the behavioral structure of pure compounds and solutions. This journal is © the Owner Societies 2011

Analysis of building deformation in landslide area using multisensor PSInSAR™ technique.

PubMed

Ciampalini, Andrea; Bardi, Federica; Bianchini, Silvia; Frodella, William; Del Ventisette, Chiara; Moretti, Sandro; Casagli, Nicola

2014-12-01

Buildings are sensitive to movements caused by ground deformation. The mapping both of spatial and temporal distribution, and of the degree of building damages represents a useful tool in order to understand the landslide evolution, magnitude and stress distribution. The high spatial resolution of space-borne SAR interferometry can be used to monitor displacements related to building deformations. In particular, PSInSAR technique is used to map and monitor ground deformation with millimeter accuracy. The usefulness of the above mentioned methods was evaluated in San Fratello municipality (Sicily, Italy), which was historically affected by landslides: the most recent one occurred on 14th February 2010. PSInSAR data collected by ERS 1/2, ENVISAT, RADARSAT-1 were used to study the building deformation velocities before the 2010 landslide. The X-band sensors COSMO-SkyMed and TerraSAR-X were used in order to monitor the building deformation after this event. During 2013, after accurate field inspection on buildings and structures, damage assessment map of San Fratello were created and then compared to the building deformation velocity maps. The most interesting results were obtained by the comparison between the building deformation velocity map obtained through COSMO-SkyMed and the damage assessment map. This approach can be profitably used by local and Civil Protection Authorities to manage the post-event phase and evaluate the residual risks.

Development of a tunable filter for coronal polarimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomczyk, S.; Mathew, S. K.; Gallagher, D.

2016-07-01

Measuring magnetic fields in the solar corona is crucial to understanding and predicting the Sun's generation of space weather that affects communications, GPS systems, space flight, and power transmission. The Coronal Solar Magnetism Observatory Large Coronagraph (COSMO LC) is a proposed 1.5 m aperture coronagraph designed to synoptically observe magnetic fields and plasma properties in the large-scale corona to improve our understanding of solar processes that cause space weather. The LC will observe coronal emission lines over the wavelength range from 500 to 1100 nm with a field of view of 1° and a spatial resolution of 2 arcsec. A spectral resolution greater than 8000 over the wavelength range is needed to resolve the polarization signatures of magnetic fields in the emission line profiles. The aperture and field of view of the LC set an étendue requirement of 1.39 m2 deg2 for the postfocus instrumentation. We find that a tunable wide-field birefringent filter using Lithium Niobate crystals can meet the étendue and spectral resolution requirements for the LC spectrometer. We have tested a number of commercially available crystals and verify that crystals of the required size and birefringence uniformity are available. We also evaluate electro-optical tuning of a Lithium Niobate birefringent filter by the application of high voltage. This tunable filter represents a key enabling technology for the COSMO LC.

Application of asymmetric mapping and selective filtering (AM and SF) method to Cosmo/SkyMed images by implementation of a selective blocks approach for ship detection optimization in SEASAFE framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loreggia, D.; Tataranni, F.; Trivero, P.; Biamino, W.; Di Matteo, L.

2017-10-01

We present the implementation of a procedure to adapt an Asymmetric Wiener Filtering (AWF) methodology aimed to detect and discard ghost signal due to azimuth ambiguities in SAR images to the case for X-band Cosmo Sky Med (CSK) images in the framework of SEASAFE (Slick Emissions And Ship Automatic Features Extraction) project, developed at the Department of Science and Technology Innovation of the University of Piemonte Orientale, Alessandria, Italy. SAR is a useful tool to daily and nightly monitoring of the sea surface in all weather conditions. SEASAFE project is a software platform developed in IDL language able to process data in C- Land X-band SAR images with enhanced algorithm modules for land masking, sea pollution (oil spills) and ship detection; wind and wave evaluation are also available. In this contest, the need to individuate and discard false alarms is a critical requirement. The azimuth ambiguity is one of the main causes that generate false alarm in the ship detection procedure. Many methods to face with this problem were proposed and presented in recent literature. After a review of different approach to this problem, we describe the procedure to adapt the AWF approach presented in [1,2] to the case of X-band CSK images by implementing a selective blocks approach.

CORDEX.be: COmbining Regional climate Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Termonia, P.

2015-12-01

The main objective of the ongoing project CORDEX.be, "COmbining Regional Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium: CORDEX and Beyond", is to gather existing and ongoing Belgian research activities in the domain of climate modelling to create a coherent scientific basis for future climate services in Belgium. The project regroups 8 Belgian Institutes under a single research program of the Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO). The project involves three regional climate models: the ALARO model, the COSMO-CLM model and the MAR model running according to the guidelines of the CORDEX project and at convection permitting resolution on small domains over Belgium. The project creates a framework to address four objectives/challenges. First, this projects aims to contribute to the EURO-CORDEX project. Secondly, RCP simulations are executed at convection-permitting resolutions (3 to 5 km) on small domains. Thirdly, the output of the atmospheric models is used to drive land surface models (the SURFEX model and the Urbclim model) with urban modules, a crop model (REGCROP), a tides and storm model (COHERENS) and the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model that simulates the fluxes emitted by vegetation. Finally, one work package will translate the uncertainty present in the CORDEX database to the high-resolution output of the CORDEX.be project. The organization of the project will be presented and first results will be shown, demonstrating that convection-permitting models can add extra skill to the mesoscale version of the regional climate models, in particular regarding the extreme value statistics and the diurnal cycle.

CORDEX.be: COmbining Regional climate Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Termonia, Piet; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; De Ridder, Koen; Fettweis, Xavier; Gobin, Anne; Luyten, Patrick; Marbaix, Philippe; Pottiaux, Eric; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Van Lipzig, Nicole; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Willems, Patrick

2016-04-01

The main objective of the ongoing project CORDEX.be, "COmbining Regional Downscaling EXpertise in Belgium: CORDEX and Beyond" is to gather existing and ongoing Belgian research activities in the domain of climate modelling to create a coherent scientific basis for future climate services in Belgium. The project regroups eight Belgian Institutes under a single research program of the Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO). The project involves three regional climate models: the ALARO model, the COSMO-CLM model and the MAR model running according to the guidelines of the CORDEX project and at convection permitting resolution on small domains over Belgium. The project creates a framework to address four objectives/challenges. First, this projects aims to contribute to the EURO-CORDEX project. Secondly, RCP simulations are executed at convection-permitting resolutions (3 to 5 km) on small domains. Thirdly, the output of the atmospheric models is used to drive land surface models (the SURFEX model and the Urbclim model) with urban modules, a crop model (REGCROP), a tides and storm model (COHERENS) and the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model that simulates the fluxes emitted by vegetation. Finally, one work package will translate the uncertainty present in the CORDEX database to the high-resolution output of the CORDEX.be project. The organization of the project will be presented and first results will be shown, demonstrating that convection-permitting models can add extra skill to the mesoscale version of the regional climate models, in particular regarding the extreme value statistics and the diurnal cycle.

Direct and semi-direct effects of aerosol climatologies on long-term climate simulations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultze, Markus; Rockel, Burkhardt

2017-08-01

This study compares the direct and semi-direct aerosol effects of different annual cycles of tropospheric aerosol loads for Europe from 1950 to 2009 using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, which is laterally forced by reanalysis data and run using prescribed, climatological aerosol optical properties. These properties differ with respect to the analysis strategy and the time window, and are then used for the same multi-decadal period. Five simulations with different aerosol loads and one control simulation without any tropospheric aerosols are integrated and compared. Two common limitations of our simulation strategy, to fully assess direct and semi-direct aerosol effects, are the applied observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions, and the lack of short-term variations in the aerosol load. Nevertheless, the impact of different aerosol climatologies on common regional climate model simulations can be assessed. The results of all aerosol-including simulations show a distinct reduction in solar irradiance at the surface compared with that in the control simulation. This reduction is strongest in the summer season and is balanced primarily by a weakening of turbulent heat fluxes and to a lesser extent by a decrease in longwave emissions. Consequently, the seasonal mean surface cooling is modest. The temperature profile responses are characterized by a shallow near-surface cooling and a dominant warming up to the mid-troposphere caused by aerosol absorption. The resulting stabilization of stratification leads to reduced cloud cover and less precipitation. A decrease in cloud water and ice content over Central Europe in summer possibly reinforce aerosol absorption and thus strengthen the vertical warming. The resulting radiative forcings are positive. The robustness of the results was demonstrated by performing a simulation with very strong aerosol forcing, which lead to qualitatively similar results. A distinct added value over the default aerosol setup of Tanré et al. (1984) was found in the simulations with more recent aerosol data sets for solar irradiance. The improvements are largest under low cloud conditions, while overestimated cloud cover in all setups causes a common underestimation of low and medium values of solar irradiance. In addition, the prevalent cold bias in the COSMO-CLM is reduced in winter and spring when using updated aerosol data. Our results emphasize the importance of semi-direct aerosol effects, especially over Central Europe in terms of changes in turbulent fluxes and changes in cloud properties. We also suggest to replace the default Tanré et al. (1984) aerosol climatology with more recent and realistic data sets. Thereby, a better model performance in comparison to observations can be achieved, or the masking of model shortcomings due to a too strong direct aerosol forcing thus far is prevented.

Retrieving Precise Three-Dimensional Deformation on the 2014 M6.0 South Napa Earthquake by Joint Inversion of Multi-Sensor SAR.

PubMed

Jo, Min-Jeong; Jung, Hyung-Sup; Yun, Sang-Ho

2017-07-14

We reconstructed the three-dimensional (3D) surface displacement field of the 24 August 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake using SAR data from the Italian Space Agency's COSMO-SkyMed and the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1A satellites. Along-track and cross-track displacements produced with conventional SAR interferometry (InSAR) and multiple-aperture SAR interferometry (MAI) techniques were integrated to retrieve the east, north, and up components of surface deformation. The resulting 3D displacement maps clearly delineated the right-lateral shear motion of the fault rupture with a maximum surface displacement of approximately 45 cm along the fault's strike, showing the east and north components of the trace particularly clearly. These maps also suggested a better-constrained model for the South Napa earthquake. We determined a strike of approximately 338° and dip of 85° by applying the Okada dislocation model considering a single patch with a homogeneous slip motion. Using the distributed slip model obtained by a linear solution, we estimated that a peak slip of approximately 1.7 m occurred around 4 km depth from the surface. 3D modelling using the retrieved 3D maps helps clarify the fault's nature and thus characterize its behaviour.

Prospects for Determining the Mass Distributions of Galaxy Clusters on Large Scales Using Weak Gravitational Lensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fong, M.; Bowyer, R.; Whitehead, A.; Lee, B.; King, L.; Applegate, D.; McCarthy, I.

2018-05-01

For more than two decades, the Navarro, Frenk, and White (NFW) model has stood the test of time; it has been used to describe the distribution of mass in galaxy clusters out to their outskirts. Stacked weak lensing measurements of clusters are now revealing the distribution of mass out to and beyond their virial radii, where the NFW model is no longer applicable. In this study we assess how well the parameterised Diemer & Kravstov (DK) density profile describes the characteristic mass distribution of galaxy clusters extracted from cosmological simulations. This is determined from stacked synthetic lensing measurements of the 50 most massive clusters extracted from the Cosmo-OWLS simulations, using the Dark Matter Only run and also the run that most closely matches observations. The characteristics of the data reflect the Weighing the Giants survey and data from the future Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). In comparison with the NFW model, the DK model favored by the stacked data, in particular for the future LSST data, where the number density of background galaxies is higher. The DK profile depends on the accretion history of clusters which is specified in the current study. Eventually however subsamples of galaxy clusters with qualities indicative of disparate accretion histories could be studied.

Massive separation around bluff bodies: comparisons among different cfd solvers and turbulence models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armenio, Vincenzo; Fakhari, Ahmad; Petronio, Andrea; Padovan, Roberta; Pittaluga, Chiara; Caprino, Giovanni

2015-11-01

Massive flow separation is ubiquitous in industrial applications, ruling drag and hydrodynamic noise. In spite of considerable efforts, its numerical prediction still represents a challenge for CFD models in use in engineering. Aside commercial software, over the latter years the opensource software OpenFOAMR (OF) has emerged as a valid tool for prediction of complex industrial flows. In the present work, we simulate two flows representative of a class of situations occurring in industrial problems: the flow around sphere and that around a wall-mounted square cylinder at Re = 10000 . We compare the performance two different tools, namely OF and ANSYS CFX 15.0 (CFX) using different unstructured grids and turbulence models. The grids have been generated using SNAPPYHEXMESH and ANSYS ICEM CFD 15.0 with different near wall resolutions. The codes have been run in a RANS mode using k - ɛ model (OF) and SST - k - ω (CFX) with and without wall-layer models. OF has been also used in LES, WMLES and DES mode. Regarding the sphere, RANS models were not able to catch separation, while good prediction of separation and distribution of stresses over the surface were obtained using LES, WMLES and DES. Results for the second test case are currently under analysis. Financial support from COSMO ``cfd open source per opera mortta'' PAR FSC 2007-2013, Friuli Venezia Giulia.

MontePython 3: Parameter inference code for cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinckmann, Thejs; Lesgourgues, Julien; Audren, Benjamin; Benabed, Karim; Prunet, Simon

2018-05-01

MontePython 3 provides numerous ways to explore parameter space using Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling, including Metropolis-Hastings, Nested Sampling, Cosmo Hammer, and a Fisher sampling method. This improved version of the Monte Python (ascl:1307.002) parameter inference code for cosmology offers new ingredients that improve the performance of Metropolis-Hastings sampling, speeding up convergence and offering significant time improvement in difficult runs. Additional likelihoods and plotting options are available, as are post-processing algorithms such as Importance Sampling and Adding Derived Parameter.

Conference on Singlet Molecular Oxygen (COSMO 84) Held at Clearwater, Beach, Florida on 4-7 January 1984. Program and Abstracts.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-09-24

BREAKS will be announced by the SESSION CHAIRMAN. 6. LOCAL INFORMATION may be obtained at the HILTON REGISTRATION DESK or the LOBBY REGISTRATION DESK...carotene and laser flash photolysis experiments to determine the rates of quenching of 3 BChl a by oxygen, $-carotene#,3 tetracene and pentacene . References...with the tumor localizing and photosensitizing constituent of HPD strongly suggests that the in situ "’ * tumor sensitizer in photoradiation therapy is

Practical Advances in Petroleum Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Chang S.; Robinson, Paul R.

"This comprehensive book by Robinson and Hsu will certainly become the standard text book for the oil refining business...[A] must read for all who are associated with oil refining." - Dr. Walter Fritsch, Senior Vice President Refining, OMV "This book covers a very advanced horizon of petroleum processing technology. For all refiners facing regional and global environmental concerns, and for those who seek a more sophisticated understanding of the refining of petroleum resources, this book has been long in coming." - Mr. Naomasa Kondo, Cosmo Oil Company, Ltd.

Update on the management of ulcerative colitis: treatment and maintenance approaches focused on MMX® mesalamine

PubMed Central

Nanda, Kavinderjit; Moss, Alan C

2012-01-01

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the colon that typically manifests as diarrhea, abdominal pain, and bloody stool. Complications, such as colorectal cancer and extraintestinal manifestations, may also develop. The goals of management are to induce and maintain clinical remission and to screen for complications of this disease. Mesalamine is a 5-aminosalicylic acid compound that is the first-line therapy to induce and maintain clinical remission in patients with mild-to-moderate UC. For patients who are refractory to mesalamine or have more severe disease, steroids, azathioprine/mercaptopurine, cyclosporine, or infliximab may be used, induce and/or maintain remission. The various formulations of mesalamine available are primarily differentiated by the methods of delivery of the active compound of the drug to the colon. Mesalamine with Multi-Matrix System® (MMX) technology (Cosmo SpA, Milan, Italy) is an oral (1.2 g), once-daily tablet formulation of mesalamine used for the treatment of UC (Lialda® or Mezavant®, Shire Pharmaceuticals Inc, Wayne, PA). In clinical studies, MMX mesalamine (taken as a once-daily dose of 2.4 or 4.8 g) effectively induced and maintained clinical remission in patients with active mild-to-moderate UC. The overall safety profile of MMX mesalamine is similar to other oral mesalamine formulations. The use of such once-daily formulations has led to intense interest in whether simplified pill regimens can improve patient adherence to mesalamine therapy. PMID:22888278

Exploring reanalysis application for the purposes of climatological applications at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaspar, F.; Kaiser-Weiss, A.; Obregon, A.; Borsche, M.

2014-12-01

Recent advances in reanalysis methods yield new tools for climatological application. Here we use applications in Germany to discuss methodological issues at regional scale. Especially in the field of renewable energy planning and production there is a need for climatological information across all spatial scales, i.e., from climatology at a certain site to the spatial scale of national renewable energy production. Also, there is the need for the temporal resolution between the scales of a few minutes up to decadal changes. We explore the spatio-temporal scales where reanalyses can be used with benefit together with the traditional approaches which are based on station measurements only. Reanalyses can provide valuable additional information on larger scale variability, e.g. multi-annual variation over Germany. However, the change in the observing system, model errors and biases have to be carefully considered. On the other hand, the ground-based observation networks suffer from change of the station distribution, changes in instrumentation, measurements procedures and quality control as well as local changes which might modify their spatial representativity. All these effects might often been unknown or hard to characterize, although plenty of the meta-data information has been recorded for the German stations. European research activities on global and regional reanalysis are supported by the Framework Program 7 (FP7) of the European Commission as a preparation activity for the European COPERNICUS climate change service. Here we start from the user requirements for reanalyses as they were collected in the FP7 project CORE-CLIMAX. Second, we give an overview over the methods to determine whether a specific reanalysis is fit for a certain purpose (discussed in FP7 projects CORE-CLIMAX and UERRA) . Thirdly, we compare for an example application the feedback statistics from global (ERA-Interim) and regional (HErZ - COSMO) reanalyses and show which conclusion can be drawn. Finally, the wind climatologies derived from the different reanalyses (ERA-Interim, ERA-20C, HErZ-COSMO) are compared with point measurements and gridded field climatologies derived from ground-based stations, illustrating the added value of the reanalysis fields.

Impacts of the land-lake breeze of the Volta reservoir on the diurnal cycle of cloudiness and precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchholz, Marcel; Fink, Andreas H.; Knippertz, Peter; Yorke, Charles

2017-04-01

Lake Volta in Ghana is the artificial lake on Earth with the largest surface area (8502 km2). It has been constructed in the early 1960s, with the lake being filled around 1966. Land-lake breezes and their effects on the diurnal cycle of local wind systems, cloudiness, and precipitation have been studied for several tropical lakes, among which studies on the effects of Lake Victoria in East Africa are one of the most perceived ones. To date, no studies on the strengths and effects of the land-lake breeze of the Volta reservoir are known to the authors. Using surface station data, a variety of satellite data on clouds and precipitation, and a convection-resolving regional model, the land-lake breeze and its impacts were studied for Lake Volta between 1998 and 2015. The observational data sets confirm a significant land-lake circulation. The only manned weather station operated by the Ghana Meteorological Service that is situated at the lake is Kete Krachi. Hourly observations for 2006 and 2014 show on several days a clearing of skies in the afternoon associated with a shift in the surface winds from southwest to southeast, the latter potentially indicating a lake breeze effect. Cloud occurrence frequency derived from the CLARA-A2, MODIS, and CLAAS2 cloud masks and the cloud physical properties from CLAAS2 clearly show the development of clouds at the lake breeze front in the course of the morning and around mid-day. This effect is most pronounced in March when also the difference between the surface temperatures of the lake and the desiccated land surface is strongest. During the peak of the wet season in July, the lake breeze cloudiness is masked by a high background cloudiness and likely also weaker due to the strong southwesterly monsoon flow that tends to weaken the land-lake circulation. However, the precipitation signal was found to be strongest in July, most probably due to the fact that in boreal fall, winter and spring, the lake breeze cloudiness often fails to develop into afternoon showers or thunderstorms, or if, they are short-lived with substantial below-cloud evaporation. Two cases in 2007 and 2014 were synoptically analyzed with weather charts and modeled using the COSMO model, the current regional operational weather forecasting model of the German Weather Service (DWD). The COSMO experiments with and without the lake were integrated for 48 hours at convection-resolving resolution of 2.8 km. Initial and boundary conditions were taken from ECWMF operational analysis. Model results confirm the development of the daytime lake breeze and suggest that the existence of the lake has substantially changed the local circulation, cloudiness and precipitation regime. Our results imply a significant impact of the artificial lake on the local climate and ecosystems that warrants further study.

Numerical modeling of space-time wave extremes using WAVEWATCH III

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbariol, Francesco; Alves, Jose-Henrique G. M.; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bergamasco, Filippo; Bertotti, Luciana; Carniel, Sandro; Cavaleri, Luigi; Y. Chao, Yung; Chawla, Arun; Ricchi, Antonio; Sclavo, Mauro; Tolman, Hendrik

2017-04-01

A novel implementation of parameters estimating the space-time wave extremes within the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III (WW3) is presented. The new output parameters, available in WW3 version 5.16, rely on the theoretical model of Fedele (J Phys Oceanogr 42(9):1601-1615, 2012) extended by Benetazzo et al. (J Phys Oceanogr 45(9):2261-2275, 2015) to estimate the maximum second-order nonlinear crest height over a given space-time region. In order to assess the wave height associated to the maximum crest height and the maximum wave height (generally different in a broad-band stormy sea state), the linear quasi-determinism theory of Boccotti (2000) is considered. The new WW3 implementation is tested by simulating sea states and space-time extremes over the Mediterranean Sea (forced by the wind fields produced by the COSMO-ME atmospheric model). Model simulations are compared to space-time wave maxima observed on March 10th, 2014, in the northern Adriatic Sea (Italy), by a stereo camera system installed on-board the "Acqua Alta" oceanographic tower. Results show that modeled space-time extremes are in general agreement with observations. Differences are mostly ascribed to the accuracy of the wind forcing and, to a lesser extent, to the approximations introduced in the space-time extremes parameterizations. Model estimates are expected to be even more accurate over areas larger than the mean wavelength (for instance, the model grid size).

A vector auto-regressive model for onshore and offshore wind synthesis incorporating meteorological model information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, D.; Bell, K. R. W.; McMillan, D.; Infield, D.

2014-05-01

The growth of wind power production in the electricity portfolio is striving to meet ambitious targets set, for example by the EU, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020. Huge investments are now being made in new offshore wind farms around UK coastal waters that will have a major impact on the GB electrical supply. Representations of the UK wind field in syntheses which capture the inherent structure and correlations between different locations including offshore sites are required. Here, Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) models are presented and extended in a novel way to incorporate offshore time series from a pan-European meteorological model called COSMO, with onshore wind speeds from the MIDAS dataset provided by the British Atmospheric Data Centre. Forecasting ability onshore is shown to be improved with the inclusion of the offshore sites with improvements of up to 25% in RMS error at 6 h ahead. In addition, the VAR model is used to synthesise time series of wind at each offshore site, which are then used to estimate wind farm capacity factors at the sites in question. These are then compared with estimates of capacity factors derived from the work of Hawkins et al. (2011). A good degree of agreement is established indicating that this synthesis tool should be useful in power system impact studies.

Vessel and oil spill early detection using COSMO satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revollo, Natalia V.; Delrieux, Claudio A.

2017-10-01

Oil spillage is one of the most common sources of environmental damage in places where coastal wild life is found in natural reservoirs. This is especially the case in the Patagonian coast, with a littoral more than 5000 km long and a surface above a million and half square km. In addition, furtive fishery activities in Argentine waters are depleting the food supplies of several species, altering the ecological equilibrium. For this reason, early oil spills and vessel detection is an imperative surveillance task for environmental and governmental authorities. However, given the huge geographical extension, human assisted monitoring is unfeasible, and therefore real time remote sensing technologies are the only operative and economically feasible solution. In this work we describe the theoretical foundations and implementation details of a system specifically designed to take advantage of the SAR imagery delivered by two satellite constellations (the SAOCOM mission, developed by the Argentine Space Agency, and the COSMO mission, developed by the Italian Space Agency), to provide real-time detection of vessels and oil spills. The core of the system is based on pattern recognition over a statistical characterization of the texture patterns arising in the positive and negative conditions (i.e., vessel, oil, or plain sea surfaces). Training patterns were collected from a large number of previously reported contacts tagged by experts in the National Commission on Space Activities (CONAE). The resulting system performs well above the sensitivity and specificity of other avalilable systems.

MultiNest: Efficient and Robust Bayesian Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feroz, F.; Hobson, M. P.; Bridges, M.

2011-09-01

We present further development and the first public release of our multimodal nested sampling algorithm, called MultiNest. This Bayesian inference tool calculates the evidence, with an associated error estimate, and produces posterior samples from distributions that may contain multiple modes and pronounced (curving) degeneracies in high dimensions. The developments presented here lead to further substantial improvements in sampling efficiency and robustness, as compared to the original algorithm presented in Feroz & Hobson (2008), which itself significantly outperformed existing MCMC techniques in a wide range of astrophysical inference problems. The accuracy and economy of the MultiNest algorithm is demonstrated by application to two toy problems and to a cosmological inference problem focusing on the extension of the vanilla LambdaCDM model to include spatial curvature and a varying equation of state for dark energy. The MultiNest software is fully parallelized using MPI and includes an interface to CosmoMC. It will also be released as part of the SuperBayeS package, for the analysis of supersymmetric theories of particle physics, at this http URL.

A theoretical study on the mechanistic highlights behind the Brønsted-acid dependent mer-fac isomerization of homoleptic carbenic iridium complexes for PhOLEDs.

PubMed

Setzer, Tobias; Lennartz, Christian; Dreuw, Andreas

2017-06-06

Recently, a successful Brønsted-acid mediated geometric isomerization of the meridional homoleptic carbenic iridium(iii) complexes tris-(N-phenyl,N-methyl-benzimidazol-2-yl)iridium(iii) (1) and tris-(N-phenyl,N-benzyl-benzimidazol-2-yl)iridium(iii) (2) into their facial form has been reported. In the present work the pronounced acid-dependency of this particular isomerization procedure is revisited and additional mechanistic pathways are taken into account. Moreover, the acid-induced material decomposition is addressed. All calculations are carried out using density functional theory (DFT) while the environmental effects in solution are accounted for by the COSMO-RS model. The simulated results clearly reveal the outstanding importance of the complex interplay between acid strength, coordinating power of the corresponding base and the steric influence of the ligand system in contrast to the plain calculation of minimum energy pathways for selected complexes. Eventually, general rules to enhance the material-specific reaction yields are provided.

Wall-layer model for LES with massive separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhari, Ahmad; Armenio, Vincenzo; Roman, Federico

2016-11-01

Currently, Wall Functions (WF) work well under specific conditions, mostly exhibit drawbacks specially in flows with separation beyond curvatures. In this work, we propose a more general WF which works well in attached and detached flows, in presence and absence of Immersed Boundaries (IB). First we modified an equilibrium stress WF for boundary-fitted geometry making dynamic the computation of the k (von Karman constant) of the log-law; the model was first applied to a periodic open channel flow, and then to the flow over a 2D single hill using uniform coarse grids; the model captured separation with reasonable accuracy. Thereafter IB Method by Roman et al. was improved to avoid momentum loss at the interface between the fluid-solid regions. This required calibration of interfacial eddy viscosity; also a random stochastic forcing was used in wall-normal direction to increase Reynolds stresses and improve mean velocity profile. Finally, to reproduce flow separation, a simplified boundary layer equation was applied to construct velocity at near wall computational nodes. The new scheme was tested on the 2D single hill and periodic hills applying Cartesian and curvilinear grids; good agreement with references was obtained with reduction in cost and complexity. Financial support from project COSMO "CFD open source per opera morta" PAR FSC 2007-2013, Friuli Venezia Giulia.

Implementing Cargo Movement into Climate Based Risk Assessment of Vector-Borne Diseases

PubMed Central

Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Tjaden, Nils Benjamin; van den Bos, Sanne; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

2014-01-01

During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito) has rapidly spread around the globe. Global shipment of goods contributes to its permanent introduction. Invaded regions are facing novel and serious public health concerns, especially regarding the transmission of formerly non-endemic arboviruses such as dengue and chikungunya. The further development and potential spread to other regions depends largely on their climatic suitability. Here, we have developed a tool for identifying and prioritizing European areas at risk for the establishment of Aedes albopictus by taking into account, for the first time, the freight imports from this mosquito’s endemic countries and the climate suitability at harbors and their surrounding regions. In a second step we consider the further transport of containers by train and inland waterways because these types of transport can be well controlled. We identify European regions at risk, where a huge amount of transported goods meet climatically suitable conditions for the disease vector. The current and future suitability of the climate for Aedes albopictus was modeled by a correlative niche model approach and the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. This risk assessment combines impacts of globalization and global warming to improve effective and proactive interventions in disease vector surveillance and control actions. PMID:24658412

Liquid–Liquid Equilibrium Measurements for Model Systems Related to Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis of Biomass

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jasperson, Louis V.; McDougal, Rubin J.; Diky, Vladimir

Here in this paper we report liquid-liquid mutual solubilities for binary aqueous mixtures involving 2-, 3-, and 4-ethylphenol, 2-, 3-, and 4-methoxyphenol, benzofuran, and 1H-indene for the temperature range (300 < T/K < 360). Measurements in the water-rich phase for (2-ethylphenol + water) were extended to T = 440 K to facilitate comparison with literature values. Liquid-liquid equilibrium tie-line determinations were made for four ternary systems involving (water + toluene) mixed with a third component; phenol, 3-ethylphenol, 4-methoxyphenol, or 2,4-dimethylphenol. Literature values at higher temperatures are available for the three (ethylphenol + water) systems, and, in general, good agreement ismore » seen. The ternary system (water + toluene + phenol) has been studied previously with inconsistent results reported in the literature, and one report is shown to be anomalous. All systems are modeled with the predictive methods NIST-Modified-UNIFAC and NIST-COSMO-SAC, with generally good success in the temperature range of interest (300 < T/K < 360). This work is part of a larger project on the testing and development of predictive phase equilibrium models for compound types occurring in catalytic fast pyrolysis of biomass, and background information for the larger project is provided.« less

Liquid–Liquid Equilibrium Measurements for Model Systems Related to Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis of Biomass

DOE PAGES

Jasperson, Louis V.; McDougal, Rubin J.; Diky, Vladimir; ...

2016-11-02

Here in this paper we report liquid-liquid mutual solubilities for binary aqueous mixtures involving 2-, 3-, and 4-ethylphenol, 2-, 3-, and 4-methoxyphenol, benzofuran, and 1H-indene for the temperature range (300 < T/K < 360). Measurements in the water-rich phase for (2-ethylphenol + water) were extended to T = 440 K to facilitate comparison with literature values. Liquid-liquid equilibrium tie-line determinations were made for four ternary systems involving (water + toluene) mixed with a third component; phenol, 3-ethylphenol, 4-methoxyphenol, or 2,4-dimethylphenol. Literature values at higher temperatures are available for the three (ethylphenol + water) systems, and, in general, good agreement ismore » seen. The ternary system (water + toluene + phenol) has been studied previously with inconsistent results reported in the literature, and one report is shown to be anomalous. All systems are modeled with the predictive methods NIST-Modified-UNIFAC and NIST-COSMO-SAC, with generally good success in the temperature range of interest (300 < T/K < 360). This work is part of a larger project on the testing and development of predictive phase equilibrium models for compound types occurring in catalytic fast pyrolysis of biomass, and background information for the larger project is provided.« less

Calculation of Host-Guest Binding Affinities Using a Quantum-Mechanical Energy Model.

PubMed

Muddana, Hari S; Gilson, Michael K

2012-06-12

The prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities is of central interest in computer-aided drug discovery, but it is still difficult to achieve a high degree of accuracy. Recent studies suggesting that available force fields may be a key source of error motivate the present study, which reports the first mining minima (M2) binding affinity calculations based on a quantum mechanical energy model, rather than an empirical force field. We apply a semi-empirical quantum-mechanical energy function, PM6-DH+, coupled with the COSMO solvation model, to 29 host-guest systems with a wide range of measured binding affinities. After correction for a systematic error, which appears to derive from the treatment of polar solvation, the computed absolute binding affinities agree well with experimental measurements, with a mean error 1.6 kcal/mol and a correlation coefficient of 0.91. These calculations also delineate the contributions of various energy components, including solute energy, configurational entropy, and solvation free energy, to the binding free energies of these host-guest complexes. Comparison with our previous calculations, which used empirical force fields, point to significant differences in both the energetic and entropic components of the binding free energy. The present study demonstrates successful combination of a quantum mechanical Hamiltonian with the M2 affinity method.

Modeling of catalytically active metal complex species and intermediates in reactions of organic halides electroreduction.

PubMed

Lytvynenko, Anton S; Kolotilov, Sergey V; Kiskin, Mikhail A; Eremenko, Igor L; Novotortsev, Vladimir M

2015-02-28

The results of quantum chemical modeling of organic and metal-containing intermediates that occur in electrocatalytic dehalogenation reactions of organic chlorides are presented. Modeling of processes that take place in successive steps of the electrochemical reduction of representative C1 and C2 chlorides - CHCl3 and Freon R113 (1,1,2-trifluoro-1,2,2-trichloroethane) - was carried out by density functional theory (DFT) and second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2). It was found that taking solvation into account using an implicit solvent model (conductor-like screening model, COSMO) or considering explicit solvent molecules gave similar results. In addition to modeling of simple non-catalytic dehalogenation, processes with a number of complexes and their reduced forms, some of which were catalytically active, were investigated by DFT. Complexes M(L1)2 (M = Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, L1H = Schiff base from 2-pyridinecarbaldehyde and the hydrazide of 4-pyridinecarboxylic acid), Ni(L2) (H2L2 is the Schiff base from salicylaldehyde and 1,2-ethylenediamine, known as salen) and Co(L3)2Cl2, representing a fragment of a redox-active coordination polymer [Co(L3)Cl2]n (L3 is the dithioamide of 1,3-benzenedicarboxylic acid), were considered. Gradual changes in electronic structure in a series of compounds M(L1)2 were observed, and correlations between [M(L1)2](0) spin-up and spin-down LUMO energies and the relative energies of the corresponding high-spin and low-spin reduced forms, as well as the shape of the orbitals, were proposed. These results can be helpful for determination of the nature of redox-processes in similar systems by DFT. No specific covalent interactions between [M(L1)2](-) and the R113 molecule (M = Fe, Co, Ni, Zn) were found, which indicates that M(L1)2 electrocatalysts act rather like electron transfer mediators via outer-shell electron transfer. A relaxed surface scan of the adducts {M(L1)2·R113}(-) (M = Ni or Co) versus the distance between the chlorine atom leaving during reduction and the corresponding carbon atom showed an energy barrier to electron transfer (the first stage of R113 catalytic reduction), while DFT optimization of the {Ni(L2)·R113}(-) adduct showed barrier-free decomposition. The difference between the stabilities of the {Ni(L1)2·R113}(-) and {Ni(L2)·R113}(-) adducts correlates with the difference between the catalytic activities of Ni(L1)2 and Ni(L2) in the electrochemical reduction of R113.

R-process Enrichment in Cosmological Zoom Simulation of a Milkyway Type Halo by Neutron Star Mergers; The Origin of the MP-R and CEMP-R Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safarzadeh, Mohammadtaher; Scannapieco, Evan

2018-06-01

The history of r-process enrichment in our galaxy is modeled through a novel set of zoom cosmo- logical simulations on a MilkyWay type galaxy. r-process sources are assumed to be neutron star mergers with a distribution of natal kicks and merge time distribution. We model turbulent mixing to estimate the pristine gas fraction in each simulation cell which we use to determine the Pop III star formation with assigned Carbon rich ejecta when going off as SNe. We follow the formation of Carbon-Enhanced Metal-Poor (CEMP) stars and the statistics of different r-process enhanced class of stars. The simulation underpredict the frequency of CEMP/MP stars by a factor of 2-4. Likewise the MP-rI/MP and MP-rII/MP and CEMP-r/CEMP cumulative ratios are all under predicted by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Our results show that NS binaries by themselves fall too short to explain the observed frequency of r-process enhanced stars and other sources of r-process enrichment at high redshifts are needed to fill the gap.

A virtual remote sensing observation network for continuous, near-real-time monitoring of atmospheric instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toporov, Maria; Löhnert, Ulrich; Potthast, Roland; Cimini, Domenico; De Angelis, Francesco

2017-04-01

Short-term forecasts of current high-resolution numerical weather prediction models still have large deficits in forecasting the exact temporal and spatial location of severe, locally influenced weather such as summer-time convective storms or cool season lifted stratus or ground fog. Often, the thermodynamic instability - especially in the boundary layer - plays an essential role in the evolution of weather events. While the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere is well measured close to the surface (i.e. 2 m) by in-situ sensors and in the upper troposphere by satellite sounders, the planetary boundary layer remains a largely under-sampled region of the atmosphere where only sporadic information from radiosondes or aircraft observations is available. The major objective of the presented DWD-funded project ARON (Extramural Research Programme) is to overcome this observational gap and to design an optimized network of ground based microwave radiometers (MWR) and compact Differential Absorption Lidars (DIAL) for a continuous, near-real-time monitoring of temperature and humidity in the atmospheric boundary layer in order to monitor thermodynamic (in)stability. Previous studies showed, that microwave profilers are well suited for continuously monitoring the temporal development of atmospheric stability (i.e. Cimini et al., 2015) before the initiation of deep convection, especially in the atmospheric boundary layer. However, the vertical resolution of microwave temperature profiles is best in the lowest kilometer above the surface, decreasing rapidly with increasing height. In addition, humidity profile retrievals typically cannot be resolved with more than two degrees of freedom for signal, resulting in a rather poor vertical resolution throughout the troposphere. Typical stability indices used to assess the potential of convection rely on temperature and humidity values not only in the region of the boundary layer but also in the layers above. Therefore, satellite remote sensing (i.e. SEVIRI, AMSU) is used to complement observations from a virtual ground-based microwave radiometer network based on the reanalysis of the COSMO model for Europe. In this contribution, we present a synergetic retrieval algorithm of stability indices from satellite observations and ground-based microwave measurements based on the COSMO-DE reanalysis as truth. In order to make the approach feasible for data assimilation applications at national weather services, we simulate satellite observations with the standard RTTOV model and use the newly developed RTTOV-gb (ground-based) for the ground-based radiometers (De Angelis et al., 2016). For the detection of significant instabilities, we show the synergy benefit in terms of uncertainty reduction, probability of detection and other forecast skill scores. The overall goal of ARON is to quantify the impact of ground-based vertical profilers within an integrated forecasting system, which combines short-term and now-casting.

LMC: Logarithmantic Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantz, Adam B.

2017-06-01

LMC is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo engine in Python that implements adaptive Metropolis-Hastings and slice sampling, as well as the affine-invariant method of Goodman & Weare, in a flexible framework. It can be used for simple problems, but the main use case is problems where expensive likelihood evaluations are provided by less flexible third-party software, which benefit from parallelization across many nodes at the sampling level. The parallel/adaptive methods use communication through MPI, or alternatively by writing/reading files, and mostly follow the approaches pioneered by CosmoMC (ascl:1106.025).

Constellation analysis of an integrated AIS/remote sensing spaceborne system for ship detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graziano, Maria Daniela; D'Errico, Marco; Razzano, Elena

2012-08-01

A future system integrating data from remote sensing and upcoming AIS satellites is analyzed through the development of a novel design method for global, discontinuous coverage constellations. It is shown that 8 AIS satellites suffice to guarantee global coverage and a ship location update of 50 min if the spaceborne AIS receiver has a swath of 2800 nm. Furthermore, synergic utilization of COSMO/SkyMed and Radarsat-C data would provide a mean revisit time of 7 h, with AIS information available within 25 min from SAR data acquisition.

Monitoring and modeling of sinkholes affecting the Jordanian coast of the Dead Sea through satellite interferometric techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessari, Giulia; Pasquali, Paolo; Floris, Mario

2016-04-01

Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) techniques have been applied to investigate sinkholes affecting the Jordanian coast of the Dead Sea. The Dead Sea is a hyper saline terminal lake located in a pull-apart basin. Most of the area is characterized by highly karstic and fractured rock formations that are connected with faults. Karstic conduits extend from the land into the sea. Since the 1960s, the Dead Sea level is dropping at an increasing rate: from about 60 cm/yr in the 1970s up to 1 m/yr in the 2000s. From about the mid-1980s, sinkholes appeared more and more frequently over and around the emerged mudflats and salt flats. Strong subsidence and landslides also affect some segments of the coast. Nowadays, several thousands of sinkholes attest that the degradation of the Dead Sea coast is worsening. Deformation analysis has been focused on the Ghor Al Haditha area, located in the South-Eastern part of the lake coast. SAR data acquired by three different sensors, ERS, ENVISAT and COSMO- SkyMed have been analysed. 70 ERS images from 1992 to 2009 and 30 ENVISAT images from 2003 to 2010 have been processed. SBAS technique has been applied to define surface velocity and displacement maps. Results obtained from the SBAS technique, applied to ERS and Envisat data, highlight a diffuse subsiding of the entire Eastern coast of the Dead Sea. It was not possible to detect single sinkholes because of the resolution of these sensors (25m2) and the small size of each punctual event that is generally varying from a few meters to a hundred meters diameter. Furthermore, SBAS has been applied to 23 COSMO-SkyMed SAR satellite images from December 2011 to May 2013. The high resolution of these data (3m x 3m) and the short revisiting time allowed precise information of the displacement of punctual sinkholes beyond the overall subsidence of the coast. A specific sinkhole has been identified in order to understand its temporal evolution. The considered phenomenon reached a total displacement of around 120 mm in 18 months in its central part. On the basis of the results from DInSAR processing, a simplified analytical model has been implemented. Vertical and horizontal components of the surface displacement field obtained from analysis of SAR images have been used as input data to derive geometric parameters of the source and in particular to estimate the volumetric strain of the phenomenon. Position, dimension and mechanism have been obtained.

Financial Incentives and Cervical Cancer Screening Participation in Ontario's Primary Care Practice Models.

PubMed

Pendrith, Ciara; Thind, Amardeep; Zaric, Gregory S; Sarma, Sisira

2016-08-01

The primary objective of this paper is to compare cervical cancer screening rates of family physicians in Ontario's two dominant reformed practice models, Family Health Group (FHG) and Family Health Organization (FHO), and traditional fee-for-service (FFS) model. Both reformed models formally enrol patients and offer extensive pay-for-performance incentives; however, they differ by remuneration for core services (FHG is FFS; FHO is capitated). The secondary objective is to estimate the average and marginal costs of screening in each model. Using administrative data on 7,298 family physicians and their 2,083,633 female patients aged 35-69 eligible for cervical cancer screening in 2011, we assessed screening rates after adjusting for patient and physician characteristics. Predicted screening rates, fees and bonus payments were used to estimate the average and marginal costs of cervical cancer screening. Adjusted screening rates were highest in the FHG (81.9%), followed by the FHO (79.6%), and then the traditional FFS model (74.2%). The cost of a cervical cancer screening was $18.30 in the FFS model. The estimated average cost of screening in the FHGs and FHOs were $29.71 and $35.02, respectively, while the corresponding marginal costs were $33.05 and $39.06. We found significant differences in cervical cancer screening rates across Ontario's primary care practice models. Cervical screening rates were significantly higher in practice models eligible for incentives (FHGs and FHOs) than the traditional FFS model. However, the average and marginal cost of screening were lowest in the traditional FFS model and highest in the FHOs. Copyright © 2016 Longwoods Publishing.

Computational Evaluation of Mixtures of Hydrofluorocarbons and Deep Eutectic Solvents for Absorption Refrigeration Systems.

PubMed

Abedin, Rubaiyet; Heidarian, Sharareh; Flake, John C; Hung, Francisco R

2017-10-24

We used computational tools to evaluate three working fluid mixtures for single-effect absorption refrigeration systems, where the generator (desorber) is powered by waste or solar heat. The mixtures studied here resulted from combining a widely used hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerant, R134a, with three common deep eutectic solvents (DESs) formed by mixing choline chloride (hydrogen bond acceptor, HBA) with urea, glycerol, or ethylene glycol as the hydrogen bond donor (HBD) species. The COSMOtherm/TmoleX software package was used in combination with refrigerant data from NIST/REFPROP, to perform a thermodynamic evaluation of absorption refrigeration cycles using the proposed working fluid mixtures. Afterward, classical MD simulations of the three mixtures were performed to gain insight on these systems at the molecular level. Larger cycle efficiencies are obtained when R134a is combined with choline chloride and ethylene glycol, followed by the system where glycerol is the HBD, and finally that where the HBD is urea. MD simulations indicate that the local density profiles of all species exhibit very sharp variations in systems containing glycerol or urea; furthermore, the Henry's law constants of R134a in these two systems are larger than those observed for the HFC in choline chloride and ethylene glycol, indicating that R134a is more soluble in the latter DES. Interaction energies indicate that the R134a-R134a interactions are weaker in the system where ethylene glycol is the HBD, as compared to in the other DES. Radial distribution functions confirm that in all systems, the DES species do not form strong directional interactions (e.g., hydrogen bonds) with the R134a molecules. Relatively strong interactions are observed between the Cl anions and the hydrogen atoms in R134a; however, the atom-atom interactions between R134a and the cation and HBD species are weaker and do not play a significant role in the solvation of the refrigerant. In all systems, R134a has the largest diffusion coefficients, followed by the HBD, the anion and the cation; the diffusion coefficients are the largest in the systems containing ethylene glycol, followed by those having glycerol and urea. This work is our first step toward our long-term goal of designing and demonstrating optimal working fluid mixtures for use in absorption refrigeration systems. Our results suggest that COSMO-RS can be used to perform a rapid screening of a large number of working fluid mixtures, and select a few candidates for further exploration using molecular simulations and experiments. These latter approaches can be used to refine the accuracy of the COSMO-RS predictions, and to optimize the selection of optimal working fluid mixtures for demonstration in absorption refrigeration systems powered by solar or waste heat sources.

International Observe the Moon Night: Eight Years of Engaging Scientists, Educators, and Citizen Enthusiasts in NASA Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buxner, Sanlyn; Jones, Andrea; Bleacher, Lora; Wasser, Molly; Day, Brian; Bakerman, Maya; Shaner, Andrew; Joseph, Emily; International Observe the Moon Night Coordinating Committee

2018-01-01

International Observe the Moon Night (InOMN) is an annual worldwide event, held in the fall, that celebrates lunar and planetary science and exploration. InOMN is sponsored by NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) in collaboration with NASA’s Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI), the NASA’s Heliophysics Education Consortium, CosmoQuest, Night Sky Network, and Science Festival Alliance. Other key partners include the NASA Museum Alliance, Night Sky Network, and NASA Solar System Ambassadors.In 2017 InOMN will be held on October 28th, and will engage thousands of people across the globe to observe and learn about the Moon and its connection to planetary science. This year, we have partnered with the NASA Science Mission Directorate total solar eclipse team to highlight InOMN as an opportunity to harness and sustain the interest and momentum in space science and observation following the August 21st eclipse. Since 2010, over 3,800 InOMN events have been registered engaging over 550,000 visitors worldwide. Most InOMN events are held in the United States, with strong representation from many other countries. We will present current results from the 2017 InOMN evaluation.Through InOMN, we annually provide resources such as event-specific Moon maps, presentations, advertising materials, and certificates of participation. Additionally, InOMN highlights partner resources such as online interfaces including Moon Trek (https://moontrek.jpl.nasa.gov) and CosmoQuest (https://cosmoquest.org/x/) to provide further opportunities to engage with NASA science.Learn more about InOMN at http://observethemoonnight.org.

CosmoQuest:Using Data Validation for More Than Just Data Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehan, C.; Gay, P.

2016-12-01

It is often taken for granted that different scientists completing the same task (e.g. mapping geologic features) will get the same results, and data validation is often skipped or under-utilized due to time and funding constraints. Robbins et. al (2014), however, demonstrated that this is a needed step, as large variation can exist even among collaborating team members completing straight-forward tasks like marking craters. Data Validation should be much more than a simple post-project verification of results. The CosmoQuest virtual research facility employs regular data-validation for a variety of benefits, including real-time user feedback, real-time tracking to observe user activity while it's happening, and using pre-solved data to analyze users' progress and to help them retain skills. Some creativity in this area can drastically improve project results. We discuss methods of validating data in citizen science projects and outline the variety of uses for validation, which, when used properly, improves the scientific output of the project and the user experience for the citizens doing the work. More than just a tool for scientists, validation can assist users in both learning and retaining important information and skills, improving the quality and quantity of data gathered. Real-time analysis of user data can give key information in the effectiveness of the project that a broad glance would miss, and properly presenting that analysis is vital. Training users to validate their own data, or the data of others, can significantly improve the accuracy of misinformed or novice users.

An organic cosmo-barometer: Distinct pressure and temperature effects for methyl substituted polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Montgomery, Wren; Watson, Jonathan S.; Sephton, Mark A., E-mail: w.montgomery@imperial.ac.uk

2014-04-01

There are a number of key structures that can be used to reveal the formation and modification history of organic matter in the cosmos. For instance, the susceptibility of organic matter to heat is well documented and the relative thermal stabilities of different isomers can be used as cosmothermometers. Yet despite being an important variable, no previously recognized organic marker of pressure exists. The absence of a pressure marker is unfortunate considering our ability to effectively recognize extraterrestrial organic structures both remotely and in the laboratory. There are a wide variety of pressures in cosmic settings that could potentially bemore » reflected by organic structures. Therefore, to develop an organic cosmic pressure marker, we have used state-of-the-art diamond anvil cell (DAC) and synchrotron-source Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy to reveal the effects of pressure on the substitution patterns for representatives of the commonly encountered methyl substituted naphthalenes, specifically the dimethylnaphthalenes. Interestingly, although temperature and pressure effects are concordant for many isomers, pressure appears to have the opposite effect to heat on the final molecular architecture of the 1,5-dimethylnaphthalene isomer. Our data suggest the possibility of the first pressure parameter or 'cosmo-barometer' (1,5-dimethylnaphthalene/total dimethylnaphthalenes) that can distinguish pressure from thermal effects. Information can be obtained from the new pressure marker either remotely by instrumentation on landers or rovers or directly by laboratory measurement, and its use has relevance for all cases where organic matter, temperature, and pressure interplay in the cosmos.« less

The Impact of Three-Dimensional Effects on the Simulation of Turbulence Kinetic Energy in a Major Alpine Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goger, Brigitta; Rotach, Mathias W.; Gohm, Alexander; Fuhrer, Oliver; Stiperski, Ivana; Holtslag, Albert A. M.

2018-02-01

The correct simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is crucial for reliable weather forecasts in truly complex terrain. However, common assumptions for model parametrizations are only valid for horizontally homogeneous and flat terrain. Here, we evaluate the turbulence parametrization of the numerical weather prediction model COSMO with a horizontal grid spacing of Δ x = 1.1 km for the Inn Valley, Austria. The long-term, high-resolution turbulence measurements of the i-Box measurement sites provide a useful data pool of the ABL structure in the valley and on slopes. We focus on days and nights when ABL processes dominate and a thermally-driven circulation is present. Simulations are performed for case studies with both a one-dimensional turbulence parametrization, which only considers the vertical turbulent exchange, and a hybrid turbulence parametrization, also including horizontal shear production and advection in the budget of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE). We find a general underestimation of TKE by the model with the one-dimensional turbulence parametrization. In the simulations with the hybrid turbulence parametrization, the modelled TKE has a more realistic structure, especially in situations when the TKE production is dominated by shear related to the afternoon up-valley flow, and during nights, when a stable ABL is present. The model performance also improves for stations on the slopes. An estimation of the horizontal shear production from the observation network suggests that three-dimensional effects are a relevant part of TKE production in the valley.

The Impact of Three-Dimensional Effects on the Simulation of Turbulence Kinetic Energy in a Major Alpine Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goger, Brigitta; Rotach, Mathias W.; Gohm, Alexander; Fuhrer, Oliver; Stiperski, Ivana; Holtslag, Albert A. M.

2018-07-01

The correct simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is crucial for reliable weather forecasts in truly complex terrain. However, common assumptions for model parametrizations are only valid for horizontally homogeneous and flat terrain. Here, we evaluate the turbulence parametrization of the numerical weather prediction model COSMO with a horizontal grid spacing of Δ x = 1.1 km for the Inn Valley, Austria. The long-term, high-resolution turbulence measurements of the i-Box measurement sites provide a useful data pool of the ABL structure in the valley and on slopes. We focus on days and nights when ABL processes dominate and a thermally-driven circulation is present. Simulations are performed for case studies with both a one-dimensional turbulence parametrization, which only considers the vertical turbulent exchange, and a hybrid turbulence parametrization, also including horizontal shear production and advection in the budget of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE). We find a general underestimation of TKE by the model with the one-dimensional turbulence parametrization. In the simulations with the hybrid turbulence parametrization, the modelled TKE has a more realistic structure, especially in situations when the TKE production is dominated by shear related to the afternoon up-valley flow, and during nights, when a stable ABL is present. The model performance also improves for stations on the slopes. An estimation of the horizontal shear production from the observation network suggests that three-dimensional effects are a relevant part of TKE production in the valley.

Monitoring large-scale landslides and their induced hazard with COSMO-SkyMed Intermittent SBAS (ISBAS): a case study in north-western Sicily, Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novellino, Alessandro; Cigna, Francesca; Jordan, Colm; Sowter, Andrew; Calcaterra, Domenico

2014-05-01

Landslides detection and mapping are fundamental requirements for every hazard and risk evaluation. Due to their inevitable shortcomings, geomorphological field surveys and airphoto interpretation do not document all the gravitational events. Indeed some unstable slopes are inaccessible to field surveyors, while some landslides are too slow to be detected with the naked eye or interpretation of aerial photographs. In this work, we integrate geomorphological surveys with ground motion data derived by employing COSMO-SkyMed satellite imagery and the Intermittent Small BAseline Subset (ISBAS; Sowter et al., 2013), a new Advanced Differential Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (ADInSAR) technique which has been developed recently at the Nottingham University in the UK. The main advantage of ISBAS with respect to other InSAR and SBAS techniques, is the possibility to detect good radar reflectors even in non-urbanized terrain, where ground targets usually look intermittently coherent, meaning they have high coherence only in some interferograms but not in others. ISBAS has proven capable of increasing results over natural, woodland and agricultural terrains and, as a result, it makes it possible to improve the detection of landslide boundaries and the assessment of the state of activity where other InSAR approaches fail. We used COSMO-SkyMed StripMap data covering the period between November 2008 and October 2011, with 3m ground range resolution, 40° look angle and minimum revisiting time of 8 days. The data consist of 38 ascending images (track 133, frame 380) with ground track angle at scene centre of 169.5° from the north-south direction. These have been obtained thanks to an agreement between the Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea and the University of Naples 'Federico II'. We tested ISBAS in north-western Sicily (southern Italy), over a 1,530 km2 area where 1,473 landslides have been identified based on optical imagery and field surveys by the local Hydro-geomorphological Setting Plan published in 2006. The geological and tectonic setting of the area, related to the Apenninic-Maghrebian Chain orogeny, makes most of the instability phenomena of complex or flow type with an extremely slow to very slow velocity, namely very suitable for an interferometric analysis. We show the results for Piana degli Albanesi, a thrust faults-bounded basin located in the northern Mt. Kumeta massif, filled in with Lower Miocene marls and pelitic deposits. Here landslide risk affects housing and public infrastructure (e.g. the SP34, the SP38 and SP102 highways), and the unstable slopes extend up to a gravity masonry dam, such as to require continuous rebuilding of infrastructures in the portions with the higher displacement rates. The ISBAS results for ascending geometry entail an unprecedented 685,518 points in a 90 km2 extended processing area, and their Line Of Sight velocities range between -6.4 mm/yr (away from the sensor) and +6.6mm/yr (towards the sensor). ISBAS results detect a total of 89 mapped landslides, of which 23 are previously not recorded. The analysis of ISBAS COSMO-SKyMed time-series allows us to compare the deformation trends to rainfall events, and to evaluate the correlation between heavy or prolonged rainfall and accelerations in the ground motion histories of the identified landslides. Sowter A., Bateson L., Strange P., Ambrose K., Syafiudin M.F., 2013. DInSAR estimation of land motion using intermittent coherence with application to the South Derbyshire and Leicestershire coalfields. Remote Sensing Letters, v.4 : 979-987.

Variability of Wind Speeds and Power over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tambke, J.; von Bremen, L.; de Decker, J.; Schmidt, M.; Steinfeld, G.; Wolff, J.-O.

2010-09-01

This study comprises two parts: First, we describe the vertical wind speed and turbulence profiles that result from our improved PBL scheme and compare it to observations and 1-dimensional approaches (Monin-Obukhov etc.). Second, we analyse the spatio-temporal correlations in our meso-scale simulations for the years 2004 to 2007 over entire Europe, with special focus on the Irish, North and Baltic Sea. 1.) Vertical Wind Speed Profiles The vertical wind profile above the sea has to be modelled with high accuracy for tip heights up to 160m in order to achieve precise wind resource assessments, to calculate loads and wakes of wind turbines as well as for reliable short-term wind power forecasts. We present an assessment of different models for wind profiles in unstable, neutral and stable thermal stratification. The meso-scale models comprise MM5, WRF and COSMO-EU (LME). Both COSMO-EU from the German Weather Service DWD and WRF use a turbulence closure of 2.5th order - and lead to similar results. Especially the limiting effect of low boundary layer heights on the wind shear in very stable stratification is well captured. In our new WRF-formulation for the mixing length in the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) parameterisation of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL-scheme), the master length scale itself depends on the Monin-Obukhov-Length as a parameter for the heat flux effects on the turbulent mixing. This new PBL-scheme shows a better performance for all weather conditions than the original MYJ-scheme. Apart from the low-boundary-layer-effect in very stable situations (which are seldom), standard Monin-Obukhov formulations in combination with the Charnock relation for the sea surface roughness show good agreement with the FINO1-data (German Bight). Interesting results were achieved with two more detailed micro-scale approaches: - the parameterization proposed by Pena, Gryning and Hasager [BLM 2008] that depends on the boundary layer height - our ICWP-model, were the flux of momentum through the air-sea interface is described by a common wave boundary layer with enhanced Charnock dynamics. 2.) Wind Field Variability Time series of wind speed and power from 400 potential offshore locations and 16,000 onshore sites in the 2020 and 2030 scenarios are part of the design basis of the EU-project www.OffshoreGrid.eu. This project investigates the grid integration of all planned offshore farms in Northern Europe and will serve as the basis for the "Blueprint for Offshore Grids" by the European Commission. The synchronous wind time series were calculated with the WRF-model. The simulation comprises four years and was validated with a number of wind measurements. We present detailed statistics of local, clustered and regional power production. The analysis quantifies spatial and temporal correlations, extreme events and ramps. Important results are the smoothing effects in a pan-European offshore grid. Key words: Offshore Wind Resource Assessment; Marine Meteorology; Wind Speed Profile; Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer; Wind Variability, Spatio-temporal Correlation; Electricity Grid Integration

Current levels of gonorrhoea screening in MSM in Belgium may have little effect on prevalence: a modelling study.

PubMed

Buyze, J; Vanden Berghe, W; Hens, N; Kenyon, C

2018-02-01

There is considerable uncertainty as to the effectiveness of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) screening in men who have sex with men. It is important to ensure that screening has benefits that outweigh the risks of increased antibiotics resistance. We develop a mathematical model to estimate the effectiveness of screening on prevalence. Separable Temporal Exponential family Random Graph Models are used to model the sexual relationships network, both with main and casual partners. Next, the transmission of Gonorrhoea is simulated on this network. The models are implemented using the R package 'statnet', which we adapted among other things to incorporate infection status at the pharynx, urethra and rectum separately and to distinguish between anal sex, oral sex and rimming. The different screening programmes compared are no screening, 3.5% of the population screened, 32% screened and 50% screened. The model simulates day-by-day evolution for 10 years of a population of 10 000. If half of the population would be screened, the prevalence in the pharynx decreases from 11.9% to 10.2%. We conclude that the limited impact of screening on NG prevalence may not outweigh the increased risk of antibiotic resistance.

Climatology of convective showers dynamics in a convection-permitting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brisson, Erwan; Brendel, Christoph; Ahrens, Bodo

2017-04-01

Convection-permitting simulations have proven their usefulness in improving both the representation of convective rain and the uncertainty range of climate projections. However, most studies have focused on temporal scales greater or equal to convection cell lifetime. A large knowledge gap remains on the model's performance in representing the temporal dynamic of convective showers and how could this temporal dynamic be altered in a warmer climate. In this study, we proposed to fill this gap by analyzing 5-minute convection-permitting model (CPM) outputs. In total, more than 1200 one-day cases are simulated at the resolution of 0.01° using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe. The analysis follows a Lagrangian approach and consists of tracking showers characterized by five-minute intensities greater than 20 mm/hour. The different features of these showers (e.g., temporal evolution, horizontal speed, lifetime) are investigated. These features as modeled by an ERA-Interim forced simulation are evaluated using a radar dataset for the period 2004-2010. The model shows good performance in representing most features observed in the radar dataset. Besides, the observed relation between the temporal evolution of precipitation and temperature are well reproduced by the CPM. In a second modeling experiment, the impact of climate change on convective cell features are analyzed based on an EC-Earth RCP8.5 forced simulation for the period 2071-2100. First results show only minor changes in the temporal structure and size of showers. The increase in convective precipitation found in previous studies seems to be mainly due to an increase in the number of convective cells.

Development of a Clinical Forecasting Model to Predict Comorbid Depression Among Diabetes Patients and an Application in Depression Screening Policy Making.

PubMed

Jin, Haomiao; Wu, Shinyi; Di Capua, Paul

2015-09-03

Depression is a common but often undiagnosed comorbid condition of people with diabetes. Mass screening can detect undiagnosed depression but may require significant resources and time. The objectives of this study were 1) to develop a clinical forecasting model that predicts comorbid depression among patients with diabetes and 2) to evaluate a model-based screening policy that saves resources and time by screening only patients considered as depressed by the clinical forecasting model. We trained and validated 4 machine learning models by using data from 2 safety-net clinical trials; we chose the one with the best overall predictive ability as the ultimate model. We compared model-based policy with alternative policies, including mass screening and partial screening, on the basis of depression history or diabetes severity. Logistic regression had the best overall predictive ability of the 4 models evaluated and was chosen as the ultimate forecasting model. Compared with mass screening, the model-based policy can save approximately 50% to 60% of provider resources and time but will miss identifying about 30% of patients with depression. Partial-screening policy based on depression history alone found only a low rate of depression. Two other heuristic-based partial screening policies identified depression at rates similar to those of the model-based policy but cost more in resources and time. The depression prediction model developed in this study has compelling predictive ability. By adopting the model-based depression screening policy, health care providers can use their resources and time better and increase their efficiency in managing their patients with depression.

Models of Community-Based Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Screening Programs in the U.S. and Their Estimated Outcomes and Costs

PubMed Central

Rein, David B.; Lesesne, Sarah B.; Smith, Bryce D.; Weinbaum, Cindy M.

2011-01-01

Objectives Information on the process and method of service delivery is sparse for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) testing, and no systematic study has evaluated the relative effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of different HBsAg screening models. To address this need, we compared five specific community-based screening programs. Methods We funded five HBsAg screening programs to collect information on their design, costs, and outcomes of participants during a six-month observation period. We categorized programs into four types of models. For each model, we calculated the number screened, the number screened as per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendations, and the cost per screening. Results The models varied by cost per person screened and total number of people screened, but they did not differ meaningfully in the proportion of people screened following CDC recommendations, the proportion of those screened who tested positive, or the proportion of those who newly tested positive. Conclusions Integrating screening into outpatient service settings is the most cost-effective method but may not reach all people needing to be screened. Future research should examine cost-effective methods that expand the reach of screening into communities in outpatient settings. PMID:21800750

Implications of Nine Risk Prediction Models for Selecting Ever-Smokers for Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening.

PubMed

Katki, Hormuzd A; Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Petito, Lucia C; Cheung, Li C; Jacobs, Eric; Jemal, Ahmedin; Berg, Christine D; Chaturvedi, Anil K

2018-05-15

Lung cancer screening guidelines recommend using individualized risk models to refer ever-smokers for screening. However, different models select different screening populations. The performance of each model in selecting ever-smokers for screening is unknown. To compare the U.S. screening populations selected by 9 lung cancer risk models (the Bach model; the Spitz model; the Liverpool Lung Project [LLP] model; the LLP Incidence Risk Model [LLPi]; the Hoggart model; the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model 2012 [PLCOM2012]; the Pittsburgh Predictor; the Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool [LCRAT]; and the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool [LCDRAT]) and to examine their predictive performance in 2 cohorts. Population-based prospective studies. United States. Models selected U.S. screening populations by using data from the National Health Interview Survey from 2010 to 2012. Model performance was evaluated using data from 337 388 ever-smokers in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study and 72 338 ever-smokers in the CPS-II (Cancer Prevention Study II) Nutrition Survey cohort. Model calibration (ratio of model-predicted to observed cases [expected-observed ratio]) and discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]). At a 5-year risk threshold of 2.0%, the models chose U.S. screening populations ranging from 7.6 million to 26 million ever-smokers. These disagreements occurred because, in both validation cohorts, 4 models (the Bach model, PLCOM2012, LCRAT, and LCDRAT) were well-calibrated (expected-observed ratio range, 0.92 to 1.12) and had higher AUCs (range, 0.75 to 0.79) than 5 models that generally overestimated risk (expected-observed ratio range, 0.83 to 3.69) and had lower AUCs (range, 0.62 to 0.75). The 4 best-performing models also had the highest sensitivity at a fixed specificity (and vice versa) and similar discrimination at a fixed risk threshold. These models showed better agreement on size of the screening population (7.6 million to 10.9 million) and achieved consensus on 73% of persons chosen. No consensus on risk thresholds for screening. The 9 lung cancer risk models chose widely differing U.S. screening populations. However, 4 models (the Bach model, PLCOM2012, LCRAT, and LCDRAT) most accurately predicted risk and performed best in selecting ever-smokers for screening. Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health/National Cancer Institute.

Revisiting the collision risk with cataloged objects for the Iridium and COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pardini, Carmen; Anselmo, Luciano

2017-05-01

After two decades of slightly declining growth rate, the population of cataloged objects around the Earth increased by more than 56% in just a couple of years, from January 2007 to February 2009, due to two collisions in space involving the catastrophic destruction of three intact satellites (Fengyun 1C, Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33) in high inclination orbits. Both events had occurred in the altitude range already most affected by previous launch activity and breakups. In 2011 a detailed analysis had been carried out to analyze the consequences of these fragmentations, in particular concerning the evolution of the collision risk for the Iridium and COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellations. Five years after such first assessment, the cataloged objects environment affecting the two constellations was revisited to evaluate how the situation had evolved due to the varying contribution of the above mentioned breakup fragments and the space activities carried out in the meantime. Being distributed, at 778 km, over six nearly polar orbit planes separated by just 30° at the equator, the Iridium satellites represent a very good gauge for checking the evolution of the environment in the most critical low Earth region. In approximately five years, from May 2011 to June 2016, the average flux of cataloged objects on the Iridium satellites increased by about 14%, to 1.59×10-5 m-2 per year. The cataloged fragments of Fengyun 1C, Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 still accounted for, on average, 54% of the total flux. More than 39% of the latter was associated with the Fengyun 1C fragments, about 11% with the Cosmos 2251 fragments and less than 4% with the Iridium 33 fragments. Specifically concerning the mutual interaction among the Iridium 33 debris and the parent constellation, the progressive dispersion and rather fast decay of the fragments below the Iridium operational altitude, coupled with a slow differential plane precession and low average relative velocities with respect to four of the six constellation planes, determined in five years, on average, a decline of the flux by about 31%, i.e. to about 5.75×10-7 m-2 per year. The decrease occurred in each constellation plane, even though with different rates and percentages, due to the varying relative orbit geometry. From May 2011 to June 2016, the mean flux of cataloged objects on the COSMO-SkyMed satellites, at 623 km, increased by about 26%, to 7.24×10-6 m-2 per year. The Fengyun 1C, Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 cataloged fragments accounted for, on average, about 1/4 of the total, with 12% due to Fengyun 1C, 8% to Cosmos 2251 and 4% to Iridium 33.

Response: Reading between the lines of cancer screening trials: using modeling to understand the evidence.

PubMed

Etzioni, Ruth; Gulati, Roman

2013-04-01

In our article about limitations of basing screening policy on screening trials, we offered several examples of ways in which modeling, using data from large screening trials and population trends, provided insights that differed somewhat from those based only on empirical trial results. In this editorial, we take a step back and consider the general question of whether randomized screening trials provide the strongest evidence for clinical guidelines concerning population screening programs. We argue that randomized trials provide a process that is designed to protect against certain biases but that this process does not guarantee that inferences based on empirical results from screening trials will be unbiased. Appropriate quantitative methods are key to obtaining unbiased inferences from screening trials. We highlight several studies in the statistical literature demonstrating that conventional survival analyses of screening trials can be misleading and list a number of key questions concerning screening harms and benefits that cannot be answered without modeling. Although we acknowledge the centrality of screening trials in the policy process, we maintain that modeling constitutes a powerful tool for screening trial interpretation and screening policy development.

The Hawai`i Supersite: Update and results (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poland, M. P.

2013-12-01

The Hawai`i Supersite was initially established in 2008 and was made permanent in 2012. Over the course of its existence, SAR data have been provided to the Supersite by the Canadian, Japanese, European, Italian, and German space agencies. Well over 2000 individual scenes are part of the Hawai`i archive, amounting to nearly 10 TB of raw data. A diversity of ground-based data, including deformation, seismic, and gas emissions, are also part of the Supersite, supplied by the U.S. Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and collaborators. The availability of such a broad suite of remote and terrestrial data has facilitated numerous explorations into Hawaiian volcanism, including both operational volcano monitoring and scientific investigations. For example, the 5-9 March 2011 Kamoamoa fissure eruption at Kilauea Volcano was tracked by a spatially and temporally dense set of deformation data. Models based on GPS, tilt, and multiple interferogams acquired over the course of the 4-day-long eruption by the ALOS, TerraSAR-X, and COSMO-SkyMed satellites revealed the complexity of dike opening over time and were corroborated by seismic and gas emission measurements. SAR data provided by the Supersite have also enabled views of surface change that are not possible using other means. High-resolution interferograms (3-m pixel size) from TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed have detected localized, cm-scale subsidence around Kilauea's summit eruptive vent, with increases in rate during periods of vent instability and rim collapse. South of the summit, along the Koa`e fault zone, InSAR data detected deformation due to shallow earthquakes in June 2011 that could only loosely be characterized by vertical deformation from leveling. Along Kilauea's east rift zone, SAR data have proven invaluable in mapping lava flow activity, especially given their all-weather, broad-scale, and high resolution capabilities. Continued contributions of both ground- and space-based data to the Hawai`i Supersite will expand both the use of such data, as well as the scope of the monitoring and scientific investigations of Hawaiian volcanism. The ultimate goal of the Supersite is to facilitate large-scale collaborations on complex problems of extreme importance to society, for instance, volcanic flank instability, magma plumbing system structure, and eruption precursors.

Breast cancer screening in an era of personalized regimens: a conceptual model and National Cancer Institute initiative for risk-based and preference-based approaches at a population level.

PubMed

Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F; Sprague, Brian L; Barlow, William E; Haas, Jennifer S; Tosteson, Anna N A; D Schnall, Mitchell; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L; Conant, Emily F

2014-10-01

Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women's health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for "overdiagnosis," and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a "1-size-fits-all" guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women's risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Unifying Screening Processes Within the PROSPR Consortium: A Conceptual Model for Breast, Cervical, and Colorectal Cancer Screening

PubMed Central

Kim, Jane J.; Schapira, Marilyn M.; Tosteson, Anna N. A.; Zauber, Ann G.; Geiger, Ann M.; Kamineni, Aruna; Weaver, Donald L.; Tiro, Jasmin A.

2015-01-01

General frameworks of the cancer screening process are available, but none directly compare the process in detail across different organ sites. This limits the ability of medical and public health professionals to develop and evaluate coordinated screening programs that apply resources and population management strategies available for one cancer site to other sites. We present a trans-organ conceptual model that incorporates a single screening episode for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers into a unified framework based on clinical guidelines and protocols; the model concepts could be expanded to other organ sites. The model covers four types of care in the screening process: risk assessment, detection, diagnosis, and treatment. Interfaces between different provider teams (eg, primary care and specialty care), including communication and transfer of responsibility, may occur when transitioning between types of care. Our model highlights across each organ site similarities and differences in steps, interfaces, and transitions in the screening process and documents the conclusion of a screening episode. This model was developed within the National Cancer Institute–funded consortium Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens (PROSPR). PROSPR aims to optimize the screening process for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer and includes seven research centers and a statistical coordinating center. Given current health care reform initiatives in the United States, this conceptual model can facilitate the development of comprehensive quality metrics for cancer screening and promote trans-organ comparative cancer screening research. PROSPR findings will support the design of interventions that improve screening outcomes across multiple cancer sites. PMID:25957378

DART: A Community Facility Providing State-of-the-Art, Efficient Ensemble Data Assimilation for Large (Coupled) Geophysical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoar, T. J.; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Kershaw, H.; Hendricks, J.; Raeder, K.; Mizzi, A. P.; Barré, J.; Gaubert, B.; Madaus, L. E.; Aydogdu, A.; Raeder, J.; Arango, H.; Moore, A. M.; Edwards, C. A.; Curchitser, E. N.; Escudier, R.; Dussin, R.; Bitz, C. M.; Zhang, Y. F.; Shrestha, P.; Rosolem, R.; Rahman, M.

2016-12-01

Strongly-coupled ensemble data assimilation with multiple high-resolution model components requires massive state vectors which need to be efficiently stored and accessed throughout the assimilation process. Supercomputer architectures are tending towards increasing the number of cores per node but have the same or less memory per node. Recent advances in the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a freely-available community ensemble data assimilation facility that works with dozens of large geophysical models, have addressed the need to run with a smaller memory footprint on a higher node count by utilizing MPI-2 one-sided communication to do non-blocking asynchronous access of distributed data. DART runs efficiently on many computational platforms ranging from laptops through thousands of cores on the newest supercomputers. Benefits of the new DART implementation will be shown. In addition, overviews of the most recently supported models will be presented: CAM-CHEM, WRF-CHEM, CM1, OpenGGCM, FESOM, ROMS, CICE5, TerrSysMP (COSMO, CLM, ParFlow), JULES, and CABLE. DART provides a comprehensive suite of software, documentation, and tutorials that can be used for ensemble data assimilation research, operations, and education. Scientists and software engineers at NCAR are available to support DART users who want to use existing DART products or develop their own applications. Current DART users range from university professors teaching data assimilation, to individual graduate students working with simple models, through national laboratories and state agencies doing operational prediction with large state-of-the-art models.

Breast Cancer Screening in an Era of Personalized Regimens

PubMed Central

Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F.; Sprague, Brian L.; Barlow, William E.; Haas, Jennifer S.; Tosteson, Anna N.A.; Schnall, Mitchell D.; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M.; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L.; Conant, Emily F.

2014-01-01

Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women’s health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for “overdiagnosis,” and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a “1-size-fits-all” guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women’s risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. PMID:24830599

Low cost, multiscale and multi-sensor application for flooded area mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordan, Daniele; Notti, Davide; Villa, Alfredo; Zucca, Francesco; Calò, Fabiana; Pepe, Antonio; Dutto, Furio; Pari, Paolo; Baldo, Marco; Allasia, Paolo

2018-05-01

Flood mapping and estimation of the maximum water depth are essential elements for the first damage evaluation, civil protection intervention planning and detection of areas where remediation is needed. In this work, we present and discuss a methodology for mapping and quantifying flood severity over floodplains. The proposed methodology considers a multiscale and multi-sensor approach using free or low-cost data and sensors. We applied this method to the November 2016 Piedmont (northwestern Italy) flood. We first mapped the flooded areas at the basin scale using free satellite data from low- to medium-high-resolution from both the SAR (Sentinel-1, COSMO-Skymed) and multispectral sensors (MODIS, Sentinel-2). Using very- and ultra-high-resolution images from the low-cost aerial platform and remotely piloted aerial system, we refined the flooded zone and detected the most damaged sector. The presented method considers both urbanised and non-urbanised areas. Nadiral images have several limitations, in particular in urbanised areas, where the use of terrestrial images solved this limitation. Very- and ultra-high-resolution images were processed with structure from motion (SfM) for the realisation of 3-D models. These data, combined with an available digital terrain model, allowed us to obtain maps of the flooded area, maximum high water area and damaged infrastructures.

Towards improved hydrologic predictions using data assimilation techniques for water resource management at the continental scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naz, Bibi; Kurtz, Wolfgang; Kollet, Stefan; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Sharples, Wendy; Görgen, Klaus; Keune, Jessica; Kulkarni, Ketan

2017-04-01

More accurate and reliable hydrologic simulations are important for many applications such as water resource management, future water availability projections and predictions of extreme events. However, simulation of spatial and temporal variations in the critical water budget components such as precipitation, snow, evaporation and runoff is highly uncertain, due to errors in e.g. model structure and inputs (hydrologic parameters and forcings). In this study, we use data assimilation techniques to improve the predictability of continental-scale water fluxes using in-situ measurements along with remotely sensed information to improve hydrologic predications for water resource systems. The Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM) integrated with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF) was implemented at spatial resolution of 1/36 degree (3 km) over the European CORDEX domain. The modeling system was forced with a high-resolution reanalysis system COSMO-REA6 from Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research (HErZ) and ERA-Interim datasets for time period of 1994-2014. A series of data assimilation experiments were conducted to assess the efficiency of assimilation of various observations, such as river discharge data, remotely sensed soil moisture, terrestrial water storage and snow measurements into the CLM-PDAF at regional to continental scales. This setup not only allows to quantify uncertainties, but also improves streamflow predictions by updating simultaneously model states and parameters utilizing observational information. The results from different regions, watershed sizes, spatial resolutions and timescales are compared and discussed in this study.

Comparison of optometry vs digital photography screening for diabetic retinopathy in a single district.

PubMed

Tu, K L; Palimar, P; Sen, S; Mathew, P; Khaleeli, A

2004-01-01

To compare (a). the clinical effectiveness and (b). cost effectiveness of the two models in screening for diabetic retinopathy. (a). Retrospective analysis of referral diagnoses of each screening model in their first respective years of operation and an audit of screen positive patients and a sample of screen negatives referred to the hospital eye service from both screening programmes. (b). Cost effectiveness study. (1). A total of 1643 patients screened in the community and in digital photography clinics; (2). 109 consecutive patients referred to the Diabetic Eye Clinic through the two existing models of diabetic retinopathy screening; (3). 55 screen negative patients from the optometry model; (4). 68 screen negative patients audited from the digital photography model. The compliance rate was 45% for optometry (O) vs 50% for the digital imaging system (I). Background retinopathy was recorded at screening in 22% (O) vs 17% (I) (P=0.03) and maculopathy in 3.8% (O) vs 1.7% (I) (P=0.02). Hospital referral rates were 3.8% (O) vs 4.2% (I) Sensitivity (75% for optometry, 80% for digital photography) and specificity (98% for optometry and digital photography) were similar in both models. The cost of screening each patient was pound 23.99 (O) vs pound 29.29 (I). The cost effectiveness was pound 832 (O) vs pound 853(I) in the first year. The imaging system was not always able to detect early retinopathy and maculopathy; it was equally specific in identifying sight-threatening disease. Cost effectiveness was poor in both models, in their first operational year largely as a result of poor compliance rates in the newly introduced screening programme. Cost effectiveness of the imaging model should further improve with falling costs of imaging systems. Until then, it is essential to continue any existing well-coordinated optometry model.

Unifying screening processes within the PROSPR consortium: a conceptual model for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Beaber, Elisabeth F; Kim, Jane J; Schapira, Marilyn M; Tosteson, Anna N A; Zauber, Ann G; Geiger, Ann M; Kamineni, Aruna; Weaver, Donald L; Tiro, Jasmin A

2015-06-01

General frameworks of the cancer screening process are available, but none directly compare the process in detail across different organ sites. This limits the ability of medical and public health professionals to develop and evaluate coordinated screening programs that apply resources and population management strategies available for one cancer site to other sites. We present a trans-organ conceptual model that incorporates a single screening episode for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers into a unified framework based on clinical guidelines and protocols; the model concepts could be expanded to other organ sites. The model covers four types of care in the screening process: risk assessment, detection, diagnosis, and treatment. Interfaces between different provider teams (eg, primary care and specialty care), including communication and transfer of responsibility, may occur when transitioning between types of care. Our model highlights across each organ site similarities and differences in steps, interfaces, and transitions in the screening process and documents the conclusion of a screening episode. This model was developed within the National Cancer Institute-funded consortium Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens (PROSPR). PROSPR aims to optimize the screening process for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer and includes seven research centers and a statistical coordinating center. Given current health care reform initiatives in the United States, this conceptual model can facilitate the development of comprehensive quality metrics for cancer screening and promote trans-organ comparative cancer screening research. PROSPR findings will support the design of interventions that improve screening outcomes across multiple cancer sites. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Added value of non-calibrated and BMA calibrated AEMET-SREPS probabilistic forecasts: the 24 January 2009 extreme wind event over Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escriba, P. A.; Callado, A.; Santos, D.; Santos, C.; Simarro, J.; García-Moya, J. A.

2009-09-01

At 00 UTC 24 January 2009 an explosive ciclogenesis originated over the Atlantic Ocean reached its maximum intensity with observed surface pressures lower than 970 hPa on its center and placed at Gulf of Vizcaya. During its path through southern France this low caused strong westerly and north-westerly winds over the Iberian Peninsula higher than 150 km/h at some places. These extreme winds leaved 10 casualties in Spain, 8 of them in Catalonia. The aim of this work is to show whether exists an added value in the short range prediction of the 24 January 2009 strong winds when using the Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (SREPS) of the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), with respect to the operational forecasting tools. This study emphasizes two aspects of probabilistic forecasting: the ability of a 3-day forecast of warn an extreme windy event and the ability of quantifying the predictability of the event so that giving value to deterministic forecast. Two type of probabilistic forecasts of wind are carried out, a non-calibrated and a calibrated one using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). AEMET runs daily experimentally SREPS twice a day (00 and 12 UTC). This system consists of 20 members that are constructed by integrating 5 local area models, COSMO (COSMO), HIRLAM (HIRLAM Consortium), HRM (DWD), MM5 (NOAA) and UM (UKMO), at 25 km of horizontal resolution. Each model uses 4 different initial and boundary conditions, the global models GFS (NCEP), GME (DWD), IFS (ECMWF) and UM. By this way it is obtained a probabilistic forecast that takes into account the initial, the contour and the model errors. BMA is a statistical tool for combining predictive probability functions from different sources. The BMA predictive probability density function (PDF) is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias-corrected forecasts. The weights are equal to posterior probabilities of the models generating the forecasts and reflect the skill of the ensemble members. Here BMA is applied to provide probabilistic forecasts of wind speed. In this work several forecasts for different time ranges (H+72, H+48 and H+24) of 10 meters wind speed over Catalonia are verified subjectively at one of the instants of maximum intensity, 12 UTC 24 January 2009. On one hand, three probabilistic forecasts are compared, ECMWF EPS, non-calibrated SREPS and calibrated SREPS. On the other hand, the relationship between predictability and skill of deterministic forecast is studied by looking at HIRLAM 0.16 deterministic forecasts of the event. Verification is focused on location and intensity of 10 meters wind speed and 10-minutal measures from AEMET automatic ground stations are used as observations. The results indicate that SREPS is able to forecast three days ahead mean winds higher than 36 km/h and that correctly localizes them with a significant probability of ocurrence in the affected area. The probability is higher after BMA calibration of the ensemble. The fact that probability of strong winds is high allows us to state that the predictability of the event is also high and, as a consequence, deterministic forecasts are more reliable. This is confirmed when verifying HIRLAM deterministic forecasts against observed values.

Top-down emission estimation of European sources of halogenated hydrocarbons using a Kalman-filter based inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Dominik; Henne, Stephan; Keller, Christoph A.; Reimann, Stefan; Vollmer, Martin K.; O'Doherty, Simon

2010-05-01

Halogenated hydrocarbons in the atmosphere are mostly synthetic products of the chemical industry designed for a wide range of applications. The first generation of compounds, the bromine- and chlorine-containing halons and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), were shown to be harmful to the stratospheric ozone layer. This motivated the international community to initiate the Montreal Protocol in 1987 to phase out their production globally. In the industrialized countries CFCs were consequently replaced by the shorter-lived hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) during the 1990s and thereafter by the completely chlorine-free HFCs. Although not harmful to the ozone layer anymore, some of the HFCs are potent greenhouse gases and are therefore regulated under the Kyoto Protocol. The high-alpine station Jungfraujoch and the coastal station Mace Head are two of only four sites of the European SOGE network (System for Observation of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases in Europe) with high-frequency measurements of halogenated compounds. Based on observations at these two sites, we here present a combined measurement - model analysis of the distribution of European emissions for a selection of compounds, and trace their evolution with time since measurements started in 2000. For the spatial allocation of sources, the measurements were combined with detailed transport simulations. For a qualitative allocation of sources in Europe we employed the trajectory statistics method of Seibert et al. (1994) and Stohl (1996). For Mace Head trajectories were computed with the FLEXPART model driven by ECMWF analyzed winds at 1°x1° resolution. For the station Jungfraujoch, however, we used the model COSMO-TRAJ driven by high-resolution wind fields (7 km x 7 km) of the weather forecast model COSMO of MeteoSwiss in order to better represent the transport in complex topography over the Alps. The method allows identifying the major source regions of the different compounds in Western and Central Europe. The pesticide methyl bromide (CH3Br), for example, was applied primarily in southern Europe to protect vegetable and strawberry plantations. Its production was banned by the Montreal Protocol which is reflected by a strong reduction in emissions between 2003 and 2008 as seen from Jungfraujoch. A contrasting example is the cooling agent HFC-125 belonging to the second generation of replacement compounds not regulated under the Montreal Protocol. During the same period, HFC-125 exhibited a marked increase with sources more homogeneously spread over Europe than those of CH3Br. For a more quantitative analysis for the years 2007-2009, we applied the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model FLEXPART using meteorological input data of the IFS model of ECMWF at 0.2° x 0.2° resolution, together with a new source inversion method based on sequential Kalman filtering. Different from other approaches the method is essentially independent of an a-priori and adjusts both the emission field and the trace gas background levels in an iterative fashion. In this study, we will contrast results of the trajectory statistics method with the more advanced source inversion, address uncertainties in the methods, and show the evolution of European emissions of a selection of compounds in comparison to official numbers reported by the individual countries to the Montreal and Kyoto protocols, respectively.

Harmattan, Saharan heat low, and West African monsoon circulation: modulations on the Saharan dust outflow towards the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schepanski, Kerstin; Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, Ina

2017-09-01

The outflow of dust from the northern African continent towards the North Atlantic is stimulated by the atmospheric circulation over North Africa, which modulates the spatio-temporal distribution of dust source activation and consequently the entrainment of mineral dust into the boundary layer, as well as the transport of dust out of the source regions. The atmospheric circulation over the North African dust source regions, predominantly the Sahara and the Sahel, is characterized by three major circulation regimes: (1) the harmattan (trade winds), (2) the Saharan heat low (SHL), and (3) the West African monsoon circulation. The strength of the individual regimes controls the Saharan dust outflow by affecting the spatio-temporal distribution of dust emission, transport pathways, and deposition fluxes.This study aims at investigating the atmospheric circulation pattern over North Africa with regard to its role favouring dust emission and dust export towards the tropical North Atlantic. The focus of the study is on summer 2013 (June to August), during which the SALTRACE (Saharan Aerosol Long-range TRansport and Aerosol-Cloud interaction Experiment) field campaign also took place. It involves satellite observations by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) flying on board the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite, which are analysed and used to infer a data set of active dust sources. The spatio-temporal distribution of dust source activation frequencies (DSAFs) allows for linking the diurnal cycle of dust source activations to dominant meteorological controls on dust emission. In summer, Saharan dust source activations clearly differ from dust source activations over the Sahel regarding the time of day when dust emission begins. The Sahara is dominated by morning dust source activations predominantly driven by the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet. In contrast, dust source activations in the Sahel are predominantly activated during the second half of the day, when downdrafts associated with deep moist convection are the major atmospheric driver. Complementary to the satellite-based analysis on dust source activations and implications from their diurnal cycle, simulations on atmosphere and dust life cycle were performed using the mesoscale atmosphere-dust model system COSMO-MUSCAT (COSMO: COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling; MUSCAT: MUltiScale Chemistry Aerosol Transport Model). Fields from this simulation were analysed regarding the variability of the harmattan, the Saharan heat low, and the monsoon circulation as well as their impact on the variability of the Saharan dust outflow towards the North Atlantic. This study illustrates the complexity of the interaction among the three major circulation regimes and their modulation of the North African dust outflow. Enhanced westward dust fluxes frequently appear following a phase characterized by a deep SHL. Ultimately, findings from this study contribute to the quantification of the interannual variability of the atmospheric dust burden.

The German cervical cancer screening model: development and validation of a decision-analytic model for cervical cancer screening in Germany.

PubMed

Siebert, Uwe; Sroczynski, Gaby; Hillemanns, Peter; Engel, Jutta; Stabenow, Roland; Stegmaier, Christa; Voigt, Kerstin; Gibis, Bernhard; Hölzel, Dieter; Goldie, Sue J

2006-04-01

We sought to develop and validate a decision-analytic model for the natural history of cervical cancer for the German health care context and to apply it to cervical cancer screening. We developed a Markov model for the natural history of cervical cancer and cervical cancer screening in the German health care context. The model reflects current German practice standards for screening, diagnostic follow-up and treatment regarding cervical cancer and its precursors. Data for disease progression and cervical cancer survival were obtained from the literature and German cancer registries. Accuracy of Papanicolaou (Pap) testing was based on meta-analyses. We performed internal and external model validation using observed epidemiological data for unscreened women from different German cancer registries. The model predicts life expectancy, incidence of detected cervical cancer cases, lifetime cervical cancer risks and mortality. The model predicted a lifetime cervical cancer risk of 3.0% and a lifetime cervical cancer mortality of 1.0%, with a peak cancer incidence of 84/100,000 at age 51 years. These results were similar to observed data from German cancer registries, German literature data and results from other international models. Based on our model, annual Pap screening could prevent 98.7% of diagnosed cancer cases and 99.6% of deaths due to cervical cancer in women completely adherent to screening and compliant to treatment. Extending the screening interval from 1 year to 2, 3 or 5 years resulted in reduced screening effectiveness. This model provides a tool for evaluating the long-term effectiveness of different cervical cancer screening tests and strategies.

Lung cancer risk prediction to select smokers for screening CT--a model based on the Italian COSMOS trial.

PubMed

Maisonneuve, Patrick; Bagnardi, Vincenzo; Bellomi, Massimo; Spaggiari, Lorenzo; Pelosi, Giuseppe; Rampinelli, Cristiano; Bertolotti, Raffaella; Rotmensz, Nicole; Field, John K; Decensi, Andrea; Veronesi, Giulia

2011-11-01

Screening with low-dose helical computed tomography (CT) has been shown to significantly reduce lung cancer mortality but the optimal target population and time interval to subsequent screening are yet to be defined. We developed two models to stratify individual smokers according to risk of developing lung cancer. We first used the number of lung cancers detected at baseline screening CT in the 5,203 asymptomatic participants of the COSMOS trial to recalibrate the Bach model, which we propose using to select smokers for screening. Next, we incorporated lung nodule characteristics and presence of emphysema identified at baseline CT into the Bach model and proposed the resulting multivariable model to predict lung cancer risk in screened smokers after baseline CT. Age and smoking exposure were the main determinants of lung cancer risk. The recalibrated Bach model accurately predicted lung cancers detected during the first year of screening. Presence of nonsolid nodules (RR = 10.1, 95% CI = 5.57-18.5), nodule size more than 8 mm (RR = 9.89, 95% CI = 5.84-16.8), and emphysema (RR = 2.36, 95% CI = 1.59-3.49) at baseline CT were all significant predictors of subsequent lung cancers. Incorporation of these variables into the Bach model increased the predictive value of the multivariable model (c-index = 0.759, internal validation). The recalibrated Bach model seems suitable for selecting the higher risk population for recruitment for large-scale CT screening. The Bach model incorporating CT findings at baseline screening could help defining the time interval to subsequent screening in individual participants. Further studies are necessary to validate these models.

COSMO-SkyMed potentiality to identify crop-specific behavior and monitor phenological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guarini, Rocchina; Segalini, Federica; Mastronardi, Giovanni; Notarnicola, Claudia; Vuolo, Francesco; Dini, Luigi

2014-10-01

This work aims at investigating the capability of COSMO-SkyMed® (CSK®) constellation of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) system to monitor the Leaf Area Index (LAI) of different crops. The experiment was conducted in the Marchfeld Region, an agricultural Austrian area, and focused on five crop species: sugar beet, soybean, potato, pea and corn. A linear regression analysis was carried out to assess the sensitivity of CSK® backscattering coefficients to crops changes base on LAI values. CSK® backscattering coefficients were averaged at a field scale (<σ°dB>) and were compared to the DEIMOS-1 derived values of estimated LAI. LAI were as well averaged over the corresponding fields (). CSK® data acquired at three polarizations (HH, VV and VH), four incidence angles (23°, 33°, 40° and 57°) and at different pixel spacings (2.5 m and 10 m) were tested to assess whether spatial resolution may influence results at a field scale and to find the best combination of polarizations and CSK® acquisition beams which indicate the highest sensitivity to crop LAI values. The preliminary results show that sugar beet can be well monitored (r = 0.72 - 0.80) by CSK® by using any of the polarization acquisition modes, at moderate to shallow incidence angles (33° - 57°). Slightly weaker correlations were found, at VH polarization only, between CSK® < σ°dB> and for potato (r = 0.65), pea (r = 0.65) and soybean (r = -0.83). Shallower view incidence angles seem to be preferable to steep ones in most cases. CSK® backscattering coefficients were no sensitive at all to LAI changes for already developed corn fields.

Toxicity of Cúspide 480SL® spray mixture formulation of glyphosate to aquatic organisms.

PubMed

Currie, Zachary; Prosser, Ryan S; Rodriguez-Gil, Jose Luis; Mahon, Kim; Poirier, Dave; Solomon, Keith R

2015-05-01

In 2011, an alternative formulation of glyphosate (Cúspide 480SL®) was chosen to replace Roundup-SL®, Fuete-SL®, and Gly-41® for the control of Erythroxylum coca, the source of cocaine, in Colombia. Cúspide 480SL contains the active ingredient glyphosate isopropylamine (IPA) salt, which is the same active ingredient used in previous formulations. However, Cúspide 480SL contains an alkyl polyglycoside surfactant rather than the polyethoxylated tallow amine (POEA) surfactant used in other formulations and known to be more toxic to nonprimary producing aquatic organisms than glyphosate itself. An adjuvant, Cosmo-Flux F411, and water also are added to the spray mixture before application. Aquatic ecosystems adjacent to the target coca fields might be exposed to the spray mix, placing aquatic organisms at risk. Because no toxicity data were available for spray mixture on aquatic organisms, acute toxicity tests were conducted on aquatic plants, invertebrates, and fish, by using the Cúspide 480SL spray mix as described on the label. Based on the median effective concentration (EC50) values for similar organisms, the spray mixture was less toxic to aquatic organisms than formulations previously used for the control of coca (i.e., Roundup-SL, Fuete-SL, and Gly-41). A physical effect induced by Cosmo-Flux F411 was observed in Daphnia magna, Ceriodaphnia dubia, and Hyalella azteca, causing the invertebrates to be trapped in an oily film that was present at the surface of the water. However, a hazard assessment for the Cúspide 480SL spray mix, using estimated worst-case exposure scenario concentrations and EC50 values from the toxicity tests, indicated de minimis hazard for the tested aquatic animals, with hazard quotients all <1. © 2015 SETAC.

Assessing COSMO-SkyMed capability for crops identification and monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guarini, R.; Dini, L.

2015-12-01

In the last decade, it has been possible to better understand the impact of agricultural human practices on the global environmental change at different spatial (from local to global) and time (from seasonal to decadal) scales. This has been achieved thanks to: big dataset continuously acquired by Earth Observation (EO) satellites; the improved capabilities of remote sensing techniques in extracting valuable information from the EO datasets; the new EO data policy which allowed unrestricted data usage; the net technologies which allowed to quickly and easily share national, international and market-derived information; an increasingly performing computing technology which allows to massively process large amount of data easier and at decreasing costs. To better understand the environmental impacts of agriculture and to monitor the consequences of human agricultural activities on the biosphere, scientists require to better identify crops and monitor crop conditions over time and space. Traditionally, NDVI time series maps derived from optical sensors have been used to this aim. As well-known this important source of information is conditioned by cloud cover. Unlike passive systems, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) ones are almost insensitive to atmospheric influences; thus, they are especially suitable for crop identification and condition monitoring. Among the other SAR systems currently in orbit, the Italian Space Agency (ASI) COSMO Sky-Med® (CSK®) constellation (X-band, frequency 9.6 GHz, wavelength 3.1 cm), especially for its peculiar high revisit capability (up to four images in 16 days with same acquisition geometry) seems to be particular suitable for providing information in addition and/or in alternative to other optical EO systems. To assess the capability of the CSK® constellation in identifying crops and in monitoring crops condition in 2013 ASI started the "AGRICIDOT" project. Some of the main project achievements will be presented at the congress.

Comparison of the hazards posed to amphibians by the glyphosate spray control program versus the chemical and physical activities of coca production in Colombia.

PubMed

Brain, Richard A; Solomon, Keith R

2009-01-01

This study evaluates the cumulative multifactorial physical and chemical impacts resulting from coca production on amphibian populations in comparison with the potential impacts produced by the herbicide glyphosate (Glyphos), which, mixed with the surfactant Cosmo-Flux, is used in the spray control program for illicit crops in Colombia. Using similar worst-case assumptions for exposure, several other pesticides used for coca production, including mancozeb, lambda cyhalothrin, endosulfan, diazinon, malathion, and chlorpyrifos, were up to 10- to 100-fold more toxic to frogs than the Glyphos-Cosmo-Flux mixture. Comparing hazard quotients based on application rates, several of these compounds demonstrated hazards 3-383 times that of formulated glyphosate. Secondary effects, particularly of insecticides, are also a concern, as these agents selectively target the primary food source of amphibians, which may indirectly impact growth and development. Although the potential chemical impacts by other pesticides are considerable, physical activities associated with coca production, particularly deforestation of primary forests for new coca plots, portend the greatest hazard to amphibian populations. The entire production cycle of cocaine has been linked to ecosystem degradation. The clearing of pristine forests for coca propagation in Colombia is well documented, and some of these regions coincide with those that contain exceptional amphibian biodiversity. This is particularly problematic as coca production encroaches more deeply into more remote areas of tropical rain forest. Transportation of disease, including the chitrid fungus, to these remote regions via human intrusion may also adversely affect amphibian populations. Therefore, the cumulative impacts of coca production, through habitat destruction, application of agrochemicals, and potential transmission of disease, are judged to pose greater risks to amphibian populations in coca-growing regions than the glyphosate spray control program.

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tölle, Merja H.; Schefczyk, Lukas; Gutjahr, Oliver

2017-11-01

A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

Development and application of a backscatter lidar forward operator for quantitative validation of aerosol dispersion models and future data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geisinger, Armin; Behrendt, Andreas; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Strohbach, Jens; Förstner, Jochen; Potthast, Roland

2017-12-01

A new backscatter lidar forward operator was developed which is based on the distinct calculation of the aerosols' backscatter and extinction properties. The forward operator was adapted to the COSMO-ART ash dispersion simulation of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010. While the particle number concentration was provided as a model output variable, the scattering properties of each individual particle type were determined by dedicated scattering calculations. Sensitivity studies were performed to estimate the uncertainties related to the assumed particle properties. Scattering calculations for several types of non-spherical particles required the usage of T-matrix routines. Due to the distinct calculation of the backscatter and extinction properties of the models' volcanic ash size classes, the sensitivity studies could be made for each size class individually, which is not the case for forward models based on a fixed lidar ratio. Finally, the forward-modeled lidar profiles have been compared to automated ceilometer lidar (ACL) measurements both qualitatively and quantitatively while the attenuated backscatter coefficient was chosen as a suitable physical quantity. As the ACL measurements were not calibrated automatically, their calibration had to be performed using satellite lidar and ground-based Raman lidar measurements. A slight overestimation of the model-predicted volcanic ash number density was observed. Major requirements for future data assimilation of data from ACL have been identified, namely, the availability of calibrated lidar measurement data, a scattering database for atmospheric aerosols, a better representation and coverage of aerosols by the ash dispersion model, and more investigation in backscatter lidar forward operators which calculate the backscatter coefficient directly for each individual aerosol type. The introduced forward operator offers the flexibility to be adapted to a multitude of model systems and measurement setups.

Development and validation of risk models to select ever-smokers for CT lung-cancer screening

PubMed Central

Katki, Hormuzd A.; Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Berg, Christine D.; Cheung, Li C.; Chaturvedi, Anil K.

2016-01-01

Importance The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends computed-tomography (CT) lung-cancer screening for ever-smokers ages 55-80 years who smoked at least 30 pack-years with no more than 15 years since quitting. However, selecting ever-smokers for screening using individualized lung-cancer risk calculations may be more effective and efficient than current USPSTF recommendations. Objective Comparison of modeled outcomes from risk-based CT lung-screening strategies versus USPSTF recommendations. Design/Setting/Participants Empirical risk models for lung-cancer incidence and death in the absence of CT screening using data on ever-smokers from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO; 1993-2009) control group. Covariates included age, education, sex, race, smoking intensity/duration/quit-years, Body Mass Index, family history of lung-cancer, and self-reported emphysema. Model validation in the chest radiography groups of the PLCO and the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST; 2002-2009), with additional validation of the death model in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS; 1997-2001), a representative sample of the US. Models applied to US ever-smokers ages 50-80 (NHIS 2010-2012) to estimate outcomes of risk-based selection for CT lung-screening, assuming screening for all ever-smokers yields the percent changes in lung-cancer detection and death observed in the NLST. Exposure Annual CT lung-screening for 3 years. Main Outcomes and Measures Model validity: calibration (number of model-predicted cases divided by number of observed cases (Estimated/Observed)) and discrimination (Area-Under-Curve (AUC)). Modeled screening outcomes: estimated number of screen-avertable lung-cancer deaths, estimated screening effectiveness (number needed to screen (NNS) to prevent 1 lung-cancer death). Results Lung-cancer incidence and death risk models were well-calibrated in PLCO and NLST. The lung-cancer death model calibrated and discriminated well for US ever-smokers ages 50-80 (NHIS 1997-2001: Estimated/Observed=0.94, 95%CI=0.84-1.05; AUC=0.78, 95%CI=0.76-0.80). Under USPSTF recommendations, the models estimated 9.0 million US ever-smokers would qualify for lung-cancer screening and 46,488 (95%CI=43,924-49,053) lung-cancer deaths were estimated as screen-avertable over 5 years (estimated NNS=194, 95%CI=187-201). In contrast, risk-based selection screening the same number of ever-smokers (9.0 million) at highest 5-year lung-cancer risk (≥1.9%), was estimated to avert 20% more deaths (55,717; 95%CI=53,033-58,400) and was estimated to reduce the estimated NNS by 17% (NNS=162, 95%CI=157-166). Conclusions and Relevance Among a cohort of US ever-smokers age 50-80 years, application of a risk-based model for CT screening for lung cancer compared with a model based on USPSTF recommendations was estimated to be associated with a greater number of lung-cancer deaths prevented over 5 years along with a lower NNS to prevent 1 lung-cancer death. PMID:27179989

Development and Validation of Risk Models to Select Ever-Smokers for CT Lung Cancer Screening.

PubMed

Katki, Hormuzd A; Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Berg, Christine D; Cheung, Li C; Chaturvedi, Anil K

2016-06-07

The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for ever-smokers aged 55 to 80 years who have smoked at least 30 pack-years with no more than 15 years since quitting. However, selecting ever-smokers for screening using individualized lung cancer risk calculations may be more effective and efficient than current USPSTF recommendations. Comparison of modeled outcomes from risk-based CT lung-screening strategies vs USPSTF recommendations. Empirical risk models for lung cancer incidence and death in the absence of CT screening using data on ever-smokers from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO; 1993-2009) control group. Covariates included age; education; sex; race; smoking intensity, duration, and quit-years; body mass index; family history of lung cancer; and self-reported emphysema. Model validation in the chest radiography groups of the PLCO and the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST; 2002-2009), with additional validation of the death model in the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS; 1997-2001), a representative sample of the United States. Models were applied to US ever-smokers aged 50 to 80 years (NHIS 2010-2012) to estimate outcomes of risk-based selection for CT lung screening, assuming screening for all ever-smokers, yield the percent changes in lung cancer detection and death observed in the NLST. Annual CT lung screening for 3 years beginning at age 50 years. For model validity: calibration (number of model-predicted cases divided by number of observed cases [estimated/observed]) and discrimination (area under curve [AUC]). For modeled screening outcomes: estimated number of screen-avertable lung cancer deaths and estimated screening effectiveness (number needed to screen [NNS] to prevent 1 lung cancer death). Lung cancer incidence and death risk models were well calibrated in PLCO and NLST. The lung cancer death model calibrated and discriminated well for US ever-smokers aged 50 to 80 years (NHIS 1997-2001: estimated/observed = 0.94 [95%CI, 0.84-1.05]; AUC, 0.78 [95%CI, 0.76-0.80]). Under USPSTF recommendations, the models estimated 9.0 million US ever-smokers would qualify for lung cancer screening and 46,488 (95% CI, 43,924-49,053) lung cancer deaths were estimated as screen-avertable over 5 years (estimated NNS, 194 [95% CI, 187-201]). In contrast, risk-based selection screening of the same number of ever-smokers (9.0 million) at highest 5-year lung cancer risk (≥1.9%) was estimated to avert 20% more deaths (55,717 [95% CI, 53,033-58,400]) and was estimated to reduce the estimated NNS by 17% (NNS, 162 [95% CI, 157-166]). Among a cohort of US ever-smokers aged 50 to 80 years, application of a risk-based model for CT screening for lung cancer compared with a model based on USPSTF recommendations was estimated to be associated with a greater number of lung cancer deaths prevented over 5 years, along with a lower NNS to prevent 1 lung cancer death.

Weak constrained localized ensemble transform Kalman filter for radar data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janjic, Tijana; Lange, Heiner

2015-04-01

The applications on convective scales require data assimilation with a numerical model with single digit horizontal resolution in km and time evolving error covariances. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithm incorporates these two requirements. However, some challenges for the convective scale applications remain unresolved when using the EnKF approach. These include a need on convective scale to estimate fields that are nonnegative (as rain, graupel, snow) and use of data sets as radar reflectivity or cloud products that have the same property. What underlines these examples are errors that are non-Gaussian in nature causing a problem with EnKF, which uses Gaussian error assumptions to produce the estimates from the previous forecast and the incoming data. Since the proper estimates of hydrometeors are crucial for prediction on convective scales, question arises whether EnKF method can be modified to improve these estimates and whether there is a way of optimizing use of radar observations to initialize NWP models due to importance of this data set for prediction of connective storms. In order to deal with non-Gaussian errors different approaches can be taken in the EnKF framework. For example, variables can be transformed by assuming the relevant state variables follow an appropriate pre-specified non-Gaussian distribution, such as the lognormal and truncated Gaussian distribution or, more generally, by carrying out a parameterized change of state variables known as Gaussian anamorphosis. In a recent work by Janjic et al. 2014, it was shown on a simple example how conservation of mass could be beneficial for assimilation of positive variables. The method developed in the paper outperformed the EnKF as well as the EnKF with the lognormal change of variables. As argued in the paper the reason for this, is that each of these methods preserves mass (EnKF) or positivity (lognormal EnKF) but not both. Only once both positivity and mass were preserved in a new algorithm, the good estimates of the fields were obtained. The alternative to strong constraint formulation in Janjic et al. 2014 is to modify LETKF algorithm to take into the account physical properties only approximately. In this work we will include the weak constraints in the LETKF algorithm for estimation of hydrometers. The benefit on prediction is illustrated in an idealized setup (Lange and Craig, 2013). This setup uses the non hydrostatic COSMO model with a 2 km horizontal resolution, and the LETKF as implemented in KENDA (Km-scale Ensemble Data Assimilation) system of German Weather Service (Reich et al. 2011). Due to the Gaussian assumptions that underline the LETKF algorithm, the analyses of water species will become negative in some grid points of the COSMO model. These values are set to zero currently in KENDA after the LETKF analysis step. The tests done within this setup show that such a procedure introduces a bias in the analysis ensemble with respect to the true, that increases in time due to the cycled data assimilation. The benefits of including the constraints in LETKF are illustrated on the bias values during assimilation and the prediction.

Modeling Individual Patient Preferences for Colorectal Cancer Screening Based on Their Tolerance for Complications Risk.

PubMed

Taksler, Glen B; Perzynski, Adam T; Kattan, Michael W

2017-04-01

Recommendations for colorectal cancer screening encourage patients to choose among various screening methods based on individual preferences for benefits, risks, screening frequency, and discomfort. We devised a model to illustrate how individuals with varying tolerance for screening complications risk might decide on their preferred screening strategy. We developed a discrete-time Markov mathematical model that allowed hypothetical individuals to maximize expected lifetime utility by selecting screening method, start age, stop age, and frequency. Individuals could choose from stool-based testing every 1 to 3 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy every 1 to 20 years with annual stool-based testing, colonoscopy every 1 to 20 years, or no screening. We compared the life expectancy gained from the chosen strategy with the life expectancy available from a benchmark strategy of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual at average risk of colorectal cancer who was risk neutral with respect to screening complications (and therefore was willing to undergo screening if it would actuarially increase life expectancy), the model predicted that he or she would choose colonoscopy every 10 years, from age 53 to 73 years, consistent with national guidelines. For a similar individual who was moderately averse to screening complications risk (and therefore required a greater increase in life expectancy to accept potential risks of colonoscopy), the model predicted that he or she would prefer flexible sigmoidoscopy every 12 years with annual stool-based testing, with 93% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual with higher risk aversion, the model predicted that he or she would prefer 2 lifetime flexible sigmoidoscopies, 20 years apart, with 70% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. Mathematical models may formalize how individuals with different risk attitudes choose between various guideline-recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies.

Scheme for the selection of measurement uncertainty models in blood establishments' screening immunoassays.

PubMed

Pereira, Paulo; Westgard, James O; Encarnação, Pedro; Seghatchian, Jerard; de Sousa, Gracinda

2015-02-01

Blood establishments routinely perform screening immunoassays to assess safety of the blood components. As with any other screening test, results have an inherent uncertainty. In blood establishments the major concern is the chance of false negatives, due to its possible impact on patients' health. This article briefly reviews GUM and diagnostic accuracy models for screening immunoassays, recommending a scheme to support the screening laboratories' staffs on the selection of a model considering the intended use of the screening results (i.e., post-transfusion safety). The discussion is grounded on a "risk-based thinking", risk being considered from the blood donor selection to the screening immunoassays. A combination of GUM and diagnostic accuracy models to evaluate measurement uncertainty in blood establishments is recommended. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large Scale Gaussian Processes for Atmospheric Parameter Retrieval and Cloud Screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camps-Valls, G.; Gomez-Chova, L.; Mateo, G.; Laparra, V.; Perez-Suay, A.; Munoz-Mari, J.

2017-12-01

Current Earth-observation (EO) applications for image classification have to deal with an unprecedented big amount of heterogeneous and complex data sources. Spatio-temporally explicit classification methods are a requirement in a variety of Earth system data processing applications. Upcoming missions such as the super-spectral Copernicus Sentinels EnMAP and FLEX will soon provide unprecedented data streams. Very high resolution (VHR) sensors like Worldview-3 also pose big challenges to data processing. The challenge is not only attached to optical sensors but also to infrared sounders and radar images which increased in spectral, spatial and temporal resolution. Besides, we should not forget the availability of the extremely large remote sensing data archives already collected by several past missions, such ENVISAT, Cosmo-SkyMED, Landsat, SPOT, or Seviri/MSG. These large-scale data problems require enhanced processing techniques that should be accurate, robust and fast. Standard parameter retrieval and classification algorithms cannot cope with this new scenario efficiently. In this work, we review the field of large scale kernel methods for both atmospheric parameter retrieval and cloud detection using infrared sounding IASI data and optical Seviri/MSG imagery. We propose novel Gaussian Processes (GPs) to train problems with millions of instances and high number of input features. Algorithms can cope with non-linearities efficiently, accommodate multi-output problems, and provide confidence intervals for the predictions. Several strategies to speed up algorithms are devised: random Fourier features and variational approaches for cloud classification using IASI data and Seviri/MSG, and engineered randomized kernel functions and emulation in temperature, moisture and ozone atmospheric profile retrieval from IASI as a proxy to the upcoming MTG-IRS sensor. Excellent compromise between accuracy and scalability are obtained in all applications.

Source model for the Copahue volcano magmaplumbing system constrained by InSARsurface deformation observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundgren, P.; Nikkhoo, M.; Samsonov, S. V.; Milillo, P.; Gil-Cruz, F., Sr.; Lazo, J.

2017-12-01

Copahue volcano straddling the edge of the Agrio-Caviahue caldera along the Chile-Argentinaborder in the southern Andes has been in unrest since inflation began in late 2011. We constrain Copahue'ssource models with satellite and airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) deformationobservations. InSAR time series from descending track RADARSAT-2 and COSMO-SkyMed data span theentire inflation period from 2011 to 2016, with their initially high rates of 12 and 15 cm/yr, respectively,slowing only slightly despite ongoing small eruptions through 2016. InSAR ascending and descending tracktime series for the 2013-2016 time period constrain a two-source compound dislocation model, with a rate ofvolume increase of 13 × 106 m3/yr. They consist of a shallow, near-vertical, elongated source centered at2.5 km beneath the summit and a deeper, shallowly plunging source centered at 7 km depth connecting theshallow source to the deeper caldera. The deeper source is located directly beneath the volcano tectonicseismicity with the lower bounds of the seismicity parallel to the plunge of the deep source. InSAR time seriesalso show normal fault offsets on the NE flank Copahue faults. Coulomb stress change calculations forright-lateral strike slip (RLSS), thrust, and normal receiver faults show positive values in the north caldera forboth RLSS and normal faults, suggesting that northward trending seismicity and Copahue fault motion withinthe caldera are caused by the modeled sources. Together, the InSAR-constrained source model and theseismicity suggest a deep conduit or transfer zone where magma moves from the central caldera toCopahue's upper edifice.

Development and verification of a model for estimating the screening utility in the detection of PCBs in transformer oil.

PubMed

Terakado, Shingo; Glass, Thomas R; Sasaki, Kazuhiro; Ohmura, Naoya

2014-01-01

A simple new model for estimating the screening performance (false positive and false negative rates) of a given test for a specific sample population is presented. The model is shown to give good results on a test population, and is used to estimate the performance on a sampled population. Using the model developed in conjunction with regulatory requirements and the relative costs of the confirmatory and screening tests allows evaluation of the screening test's utility in terms of cost savings. Testers can use the methods developed to estimate the utility of a screening program using available screening tests with their own sample populations.

Optimal healthcare decision making under multiple mathematical models: application in prostate cancer screening.

PubMed

Bertsimas, Dimitris; Silberholz, John; Trikalinos, Thomas

2018-03-01

Important decisions related to human health, such as screening strategies for cancer, need to be made without a satisfactory understanding of the underlying biological and other processes. Rather, they are often informed by mathematical models that approximate reality. Often multiple models have been made to study the same phenomenon, which may lead to conflicting decisions. It is natural to seek a decision making process that identifies decisions that all models find to be effective, and we propose such a framework in this work. We apply the framework in prostate cancer screening to identify prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based strategies that perform well under all considered models. We use heuristic search to identify strategies that trade off between optimizing the average across all models' assessments and being "conservative" by optimizing the most pessimistic model assessment. We identified three recently published mathematical models that can estimate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) of PSA-based screening strategies and identified 64 strategies that trade off between maximizing the average and the most pessimistic model assessments. All prescribe PSA thresholds that increase with age, and 57 involve biennial screening. Strategies with higher assessments with the pessimistic model start screening later, stop screening earlier, and use higher PSA thresholds at earlier ages. The 64 strategies outperform 22 previously published expert-generated strategies. The 41 most "conservative" ones remained better than no screening with all models in extensive sensitivity analyses. We augment current comparative modeling approaches by identifying strategies that perform well under all models, for various degrees of decision makers' conservativeness.

Lung Cancer Screening Participation: Developing a Conceptual Model to Guide Research

PubMed Central

Carter-Harris, Lisa; Davis, Lorie L.; Rawl, Susan M.

2017-01-01

Purpose To describe the development of a conceptual model to guide research focused on lung cancer screening participation from the perspective of the individual in the decision-making process. Methods Based on a comprehensive review of empirical and theoretical literature, a conceptual model was developed linking key psychological variables (stigma, medical mistrust, fatalism, worry, and fear) to the health belief model and precaution adoption process model. Results Proposed model concepts have been examined in prior research of either lung or other cancer screening behavior. To date, a few studies have explored a limited number of variables that influence screening behavior in lung cancer specifically. Therefore, relationships among concepts in the model have been proposed and future research directions presented. Conclusion This proposed model is an initial step to support theoretically based research. As lung cancer screening becomes more widely implemented, it is critical to theoretically guide research to understand variables that may be associated with lung cancer screening participation. Findings from future research guided by the proposed conceptual model can be used to refine the model and inform tailored intervention development. PMID:28304262

Lung Cancer Screening Participation: Developing a Conceptual Model to Guide Research.

PubMed

Carter-Harris, Lisa; Davis, Lorie L; Rawl, Susan M

2016-11-01

To describe the development of a conceptual model to guide research focused on lung cancer screening participation from the perspective of the individual in the decision-making process. Based on a comprehensive review of empirical and theoretical literature, a conceptual model was developed linking key psychological variables (stigma, medical mistrust, fatalism, worry, and fear) to the health belief model and precaution adoption process model. Proposed model concepts have been examined in prior research of either lung or other cancer screening behavior. To date, a few studies have explored a limited number of variables that influence screening behavior in lung cancer specifically. Therefore, relationships among concepts in the model have been proposed and future research directions presented. This proposed model is an initial step to support theoretically based research. As lung cancer screening becomes more widely implemented, it is critical to theoretically guide research to understand variables that may be associated with lung cancer screening participation. Findings from future research guided by the proposed conceptual model can be used to refine the model and inform tailored intervention development.

Radar-driven high-resolution hydro-meteorological forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossa, Andrea M.; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

2010-11-01

SummaryThis study aims to assess the feasibility of assimilating carefully checked radar rainfall estimates into a numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extend the forecasting lead time for an extreme flash flood. The hydro-meteorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model. Radar rainfall estimates are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood which impacted the coastal area of North-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the 90 km2 Dese river basin draining to the Venice Lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including rain-induced signal attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar rainfall estimates in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant. The main individual organized convective systems are successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, high-intensity incorrectly localized precipitation is correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the highest rainfall intensities computed after assimilation underestimate the observed values by 20% and 50% at a scale of 20 km and 5 km, respectively. The positive impact of assimilating radar rainfall estimates is carried over into the free forecast for about 2-5 h, depending on when the forecast was started. The positive impact is larger when the main mesoscale convective system is present in the initial conditions. The improvements in the precipitation forecasts are propagated to the river flow simulations, with an extension of the forecasting lead time up to 3 h.

The value of models in informing resource allocation in colorectal cancer screening – 1 the case of the Netherlands

PubMed Central

van Hees, Frank; Zauber, Ann G.; van Veldhuizen, Harriët; Heijnen, Marie-Louise A.; Penning, Corine; de Koning, Harry J.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2015-01-01

In May 2011, the Dutch government decided to implement a national programme for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening using biennial faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening between ages 55 and 75.[1] Decision modelling played an important role in informing this decision, as well as in the planning and implementation of the programme afterwards. In this overview, we illustrate the value of models in informing resource allocation in CRC screening, using the role that decision modelling has played in the Dutch CRC screening programme as an example. PMID:26063755

Individual-Level Factors in Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Review of the Literature on the Relation of Individual-Level Health Behavior Constructs and Screening Behavior

PubMed Central

Kiviniemi, Marc T.; Bennett, Alyssa; Zaiter, Marie; Marshall, James R.

2010-01-01

Compliance with colorectal cancer screening recommendations requires considerable conscious effort on the part of the individual patient, making an individual's decisions about engagement in screening an important contributor to compliance or noncompliance. The objective of this paper was to examine the effectiveness of individual-level behavior theories and their associated constructs in accounting for engagement in colorectal cancer screening behavior. We reviewed the literature examining constructs from formal models of individual-level health behavior as factors associated with compliance with screening for colorectal cancer. All published studies examining one or more constructs from the health belief model, theory of planned behavior, transtheoretical model, or social cognitive theory and their relation to screening behavior or behavioral intentions were included in the analysis. By and large, results of studies supported the theory-based predictions for the influence of constructs on cancer screening behavior. However, the evidence base for many of these relations, especially for models other than the health belief model, is quite limited. Suggestions are made for future research on individual-level determinants of colorectal cancer screening. PMID:21954045

Colorectal Cancer Deaths Attributable to Nonuse of Screening in the United States

PubMed Central

Meester, Reinier G.S.; Doubeni, Chyke A.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Goede, S.L.; Levin, Theodore R.; Quinn, Virginia P.; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Corley, Douglas A.; Zauber, Ann G.

2015-01-01

Purpose Screening is a major contributor to colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality reductions in the U.S., but is underutilized. We estimated the fraction of CRC deaths attributable to nonuse of screening to demonstrate the potential benefits from targeted interventions. Methods The established MISCAN-colon microsimulation model was used to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) in people aged ≥50 years. The model incorporates long-term patterns and effects of screening by age and type of screening test. PAF for 2010 was estimated using currently available data on screening uptake; PAF was also projected assuming constant future screening rates to incorporate lagged effects from past increases in screening uptake. We also computed PAF using Levin's formula to gauge how this simpler approach differs from the model-based approach. Results There were an estimated 51,500 CRC deaths in 2010, about 63% (N∼32,200) of which were attributable to non-screening. The PAF decreases slightly to 58% in 2020. Levin's approach yielded a considerably more conservative PAF of 46% (N∼23,600) for 2010. Conclusions The majority of current U.S. CRC deaths are attributable to non-screening. This underscores the potential benefits of increasing screening uptake in the population. Traditional methods of estimating PAF underestimated screening effects compared with model-based approaches. PMID:25721748

Discrete Event Simulation for Decision Modeling in Health Care: Lessons from Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening

PubMed Central

Jones, Edmund; Masconi, Katya L.; Sweeting, Michael J.; Thompson, Simon G.; Powell, Janet T.

2018-01-01

Markov models are often used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions but they are sometimes not flexible enough to allow accurate modeling or investigation of alternative scenarios and policies. A Markov model previously demonstrated that a one-off invitation to screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) for men aged 65 y in the UK and subsequent follow-up of identified AAAs was likely to be highly cost-effective at thresholds commonly adopted in the UK (£20,000 to £30,000 per quality adjusted life-year). However, new evidence has emerged and the decision problem has evolved to include exploration of the circumstances under which AAA screening may be cost-effective, which the Markov model is not easily able to address. A new model to handle this more complex decision problem was needed, and the case of AAA screening thus provides an illustration of the relative merits of Markov models and discrete event simulation (DES) models. An individual-level DES model was built using the R programming language to reflect possible events and pathways of individuals invited to screening v. those not invited. The model was validated against key events and cost-effectiveness, as observed in a large, randomized trial. Different screening protocol scenarios were investigated to demonstrate the flexibility of the DES. The case of AAA screening highlights the benefits of DES, particularly in the context of screening studies.

High-throughput screening and small animal models, where are we?

PubMed Central

Giacomotto, Jean; Ségalat, Laurent

2010-01-01

Current high-throughput screening methods for drug discovery rely on the existence of targets. Moreover, most of the hits generated during screenings turn out to be invalid after further testing in animal models. To by-pass these limitations, efforts are now being made to screen chemical libraries on whole animals. One of the most commonly used animal model in biology is the murine model Mus musculus. However, its cost limit its use in large-scale therapeutic screening. In contrast, the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, and the fish Danio rerio are gaining momentum as screening tools. These organisms combine genetic amenability, low cost and culture conditions that are compatible with large-scale screens. Their main advantage is to allow high-throughput screening in a whole-animal context. Moreover, their use is not dependent on the prior identification of a target and permits the selection of compounds with an improved safety profile. This review surveys the versatility of these animal models for drug discovery and discuss the options available at this day. PMID:20423335

Enhancing HIV Testing and Treatment among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China: A Pilot Model with Two-Rapid Tests, Single Blood Draw Session, and Intensified Case Management in Six Cities in 2013.

PubMed

Zhang, Dapeng; Lu, Hongyan; Zhuang, Minghua; Wu, Guohui; Yan, Hongjing; Xu, Jun; Wei, Xiaoli; Li, Chengmei; Meng, Sining; Fu, Xiaojing; Qi, Jinlei; Wang, Peng; Luo, Mei; Dai, Min; Yip, Ray; Sun, Jiangping; Wu, Zunyou

2016-01-01

To explore models to improve HIV testing, linkage to care and treatment among men who have sex with men (MSM) in cooperation with community-based organizations (CBOs) in China. We introduced a new model for HIV testing services targeting MSM in six cities in 2013.These models introduced provision of rapid HIV testing by CBO staff and streamlined processes for HIV screening, confirmation of initial reactive screening results, and linkage to care among diagnosed people. We monitored attrition along each step of the continuum of care from screening to treatment and compared program performance between 2012 and 2013. According to the providers of two rapid tests (HIV screening), four different services delivery models were examined in 2013: Model A = first screen at CDC, second at CDC (Model A = CDC+CDC), Model B = first and second screens at CBOs (Model B = CBO+CBO), Model C = first screen at CBO, second at Hospital (Model C = CBO+Hosp), and Model D = first screen at CBO, second at CDC (Model D = CBO+CDC). Logistic regressions were performed to assess advantages of different screening models of case finding and case management. Compared to 2012, the number of HIV screening tests performed for MSM increased 35.8% in 2013 (72,577 in 2013 vs. 53,455 in 2012). We observed a 5.6% increase in proportion of cases screened reactive receiving HIV confirmatory tests (93.9% in 2013 vs. 89.2% in 2012, χ2 = 48.52, p<0.001) and 65% reduction in loss to CD4 cell count tests (15% in 2013 vs. 43% in 2012, χ2 = 628.85, p<0.001). Regarding linkage to care and treatment, the 2013 pilot showed that the Model D had the highest rate of loss between screening reactive and confirmatory test among the four models, with 18.1% fewer receiving a second screening test and a further 5.9% loss among those receiving HIV confirmatory tests. The Model B and the Model C showed lower losses (0.8% and 1.3%) for newly diagnosed HIV positives receiving CD4 cell count tests, and higher rates of HIV positives referred to designated ART hospitals (88.0% and 93.3%) than the Model A and Model D (4.6% and 5.7% for CD4 cell count test, and 68.9% and 64.4% for referring to designated ART hospitals). The proportion of cases where the screening test was reactive that were commenced on ART was highest in Model C; 52.8% of cases commenced on ART compared to 38.9%, 34.2% and 21.1% in Models A, B and D respectively. Using Model A as a reference group, the multivariate logistic regression results also showed the advantages of Models B, C and D, which increased CD4 cell count test, referral to designated ART hospitals and initiation of ART, when controlling for program city and other factors. This study has demonstrated that involvement of CBOs in HIV rapid testing provision, streamlining testing and care procedures and early hospital case management can improve testing, linkage to, and retention in care and treatment among MSM in China.

Is prostate cancer screening cost-effective? A microsimulation model of prostate-specific antigen-based screening for British Columbia, Canada

PubMed Central

Pataky, Reka; Gulati, Roman; Etzioni, Ruth; Black, Peter; Chi, Kim N.; Coldman, Andrew J.; Pickles, Tom; Tyldesley, Scott; Peacock, Stuart

2015-01-01

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer may reduce mortality, but it incurs considerable risk of overdiagnosis and potential harm to quality of life. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PSA screening, with and without adjustment for quality of life, for the British Columbia (BC) population. We adapted an existing natural history model using BC incidence, treatment, cost and mortality patterns. The modeled mortality benefit of screening derives from a stage-shift mechanism, assuming mortality reduction consistent with the European Study of Randomized Screening for Prostate Cancer. The model projected outcomes for 40 year-old men under 14 combinations of screening ages and frequencies. Cost and utility estimates were explored with deterministic sensitivity analysis. The incremental cost-effectiveness of regular screening ranged from $36,300/LYG, for screening every four years from ages 55-69, to $588,300/LYG, for screening every two years from ages 40-74. The marginal benefits of increasing screening frequency to two years or starting screening at age 40 were small and came at significant cost. After utility adjustment, all screening strategies resulted in a loss of QALYs; however, this result was very sensitive to utility estimates. Plausible outcomes under a range of screening strategies inform discussion of prostate cancer screening policy in BC and similar jurisdictions. Screening may be cost-effective but the sensitivity of results to utility values suggests individual preferences for quality versus quantity of life should be a key consideration. PMID:24443367

Predicting the stage shift as a result of breast cancer screening in low- and middle-income countries: a proof of concept.

PubMed

Zelle, Sten G; Baltussen, Rob; Otten, Johannes D M; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A M; van Schoor, Guido; Broeders, Mireille J M

2015-03-01

To provide proof of concept for a simple model to estimate the stage shift as a result of breast cancer screening in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Stage shift is an essential early detection indicator and an important proxy for the performance and possible further impact of screening programmes. Our model could help LIMCs to choose appropriate control strategies. We assessed our model concept in three steps. First, we calculated the proportional performance rates (i.e. index number Z) based on 16 screening rounds of the Nijmegen Screening Program (384,884 screened women). Second, we used linear regression to assess the association between Z and the amount of stage shift observed in the programme. Third, we hypothesized how Z could be used to estimate the stage shift as a result of breast cancer screening in LMICs. Stage shifts can be estimated by the proportional performance rates (Zs) using linear regression. Zs calculated for each screening round are highly associated with the observed stage shifts in the Nijmegen Screening Program (Pearson's R: 0.798, R square: 0.637). Our model can predict the stage shifts in the Nijmegen Screening Program, and could be applied to settings with different characteristics, although it should not be straightforwardly used to estimate the impact on mortality. Further research should investigate the extrapolation of our model to other settings. As stage shift is an essential screening performance indicator, our model could provide important information on the performance of breast cancer screening programmes that LMICs consider implementing. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Modeling the cost-benefit of nerve conduction studies in pre-employment screening for carpal tunnel syndrome.

PubMed

Evanoff, Bradley; Kymes, Steve

2010-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the costs associated with pre-employment nerve conduction testing as a screening tool for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) in the workplace. We used a Markov decision analysis model to compare the costs associated with a strategy of screening all prospective employees for CTS and not hiring those with abnormal nerve conduction, versus a strategy of not screening for CTS. The variables included in our model included employee turnover rate, the incidence of CTS, the prevalence of median nerve conduction abnormalities, the relative risk of developing CTS conferred by abnormal nerve conduction screening, the costs of pre-employment screening, and the worker's compensation costs to the employer for each case of CTS. In our base case, total employer costs for CTS from the perspective of the employer (cost of screening plus costs for workers' compensation associated with CTS) were higher when screening was used. Median costs per employee position over five years were US$503 for the screening strategy versus US$200 for a no-screening strategy. A sensitivity analysis showed that a strategy of screening was cost-beneficial from the perspective of the employer only under a few circumstances. Using Monte Carlo simulation varying all parameters, we found a 30% probability that screening would be cost-beneficial. A strategy of pre-employment screening for CTS should be carefully evaluated for yield and social consequences before being implemented. Our model suggests such screening is not appropriate for most employers.

Breast cancer risk from different mammography screening practices.

PubMed

Bijwaard, Harmen; Brenner, Alina; Dekkers, Fieke; van Dillen, Teun; Land, Charles E; Boice, John D

2010-09-01

Mammography screening is an accepted procedure for early detection of breast tumors among asymptomatic women. Since this procedure involves the use of X rays, it is itself potentially carcinogenic. Although there is general consensus about the benefit of screening for older women, screening practices differ between countries. In this paper radiation risks for these different practices are estimated using a new approach. We model breast cancer induction by ionizing radiation in a cohort of patients exposed to frequent X-ray examinations. The biologically based, mechanistic model provides a better foundation for the extrapolation of risks to different mammography screening practices than empirical models do. The model predicts that the excess relative risk (ERR) doubles when screening starts at age 40 instead of 50 and that a continuation of screening at ages 75 and higher carries little extra risk. The number of induced fatal breast cancers is estimated to be considerably lower than derived from epidemiological studies and from internationally accepted radiation protection risks. The present findings, if used in a risk-benefit analysis for mammography screening, would be more favorable to screening than estimates currently recommended for radiation protection. This has implications for the screening ages that are currently being reconsidered in several countries.

Mathematic model analysis of Gaussian beam propagation through an arbitrary thickness random phase screen.

PubMed

Tian, Yuzhen; Guo, Jin; Wang, Rui; Wang, Tingfeng

2011-09-12

In order to research the statistical properties of Gaussian beam propagation through an arbitrary thickness random phase screen for adaptive optics and laser communication application in the laboratory, we establish mathematic models of statistical quantities, which are based on the Rytov method and the thin phase screen model, involved in the propagation process. And the analytic results are developed for an arbitrary thickness phase screen based on the Kolmogorov power spectrum. The comparison between the arbitrary thickness phase screen and the thin phase screen shows that it is more suitable for our results to describe the generalized case, especially the scintillation index.

Comparative economic evaluation of data from the ACRIN National CT Colonography Trial with three cancer intervention and surveillance modeling network microsimulations.

PubMed

Vanness, David J; Knudsen, Amy B; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Rutter, Carolyn M; Gareen, Ilana F; Herman, Benjamin A; Kuntz, Karen M; Zauber, Ann G; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Feuer, Eric J; Chen, Mei-Hsiu; Johnson, C Daniel

2011-11-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of computed tomographic (CT) colonography for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in average-risk asymptomatic subjects in the United States aged 50 years. Enrollees in the American College of Radiology Imaging Network National CT Colonography Trial provided informed consent, and approval was obtained from the institutional review board at each site. CT colonography performance estimates from the trial were incorporated into three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network CRC microsimulations. Simulated survival and lifetime costs for screening 50-year-old subjects in the United States with CT colonography every 5 or 10 years were compared with those for guideline-concordant screening with colonoscopy, flexible sigmoidoscopy plus either sensitive unrehydrated fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) or fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), and no screening. Perfect and reduced screening adherence scenarios were considered. Incremental cost-effectiveness and net health benefits were estimated from the U.S. health care sector perspective, assuming a 3% discount rate. CT colonography at 5- and 10-year screening intervals was more costly and less effective than FOBT plus flexible sigmoidoscopy in all three models in both 100% and 50% adherence scenarios. Colonoscopy also was more costly and less effective than FOBT plus flexible sigmoidoscopy, except in the CRC-SPIN model assuming 100% adherence (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $26,300 per life-year gained). CT colonography at 5- and 10-year screening intervals and colonoscopy were net beneficial compared with no screening in all model scenarios. The 5-year screening interval was net beneficial over the 10-year interval except in the MISCAN model when assuming 100% adherence and willingness to pay $50,000 per life-year gained. All three models predict CT colonography to be more costly and less effective than non-CT colonographic screening but net beneficial compared with no screening given model assumptions. RSNA, 2011

Using an Ocean of Data, Researchers Model Real-Life Benefits of Cancer Screening

Cancer.gov

Using the results of screening trials, the NCI Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network is trying to estimate the true benefit of cancer screening in the general population and identify the optimal way to implement screening within the health care system.

Cost Effectiveness of Screening Patients With Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease for Barrett's Esophagus With a Minimally Invasive Cell Sampling Device.

PubMed

Heberle, Curtis R; Omidvari, Amir-Houshang; Ali, Ayman; Kroep, Sonja; Kong, Chung Yin; Inadomi, John M; Rubenstein, Joel H; Tramontano, Angela C; Dowling, Emily C; Hazelton, William D; Luebeck, E Georg; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Hur, Chin

2017-09-01

It is important to identify patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE), the precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Patients with BE usually are identified by endoscopy, which is expensive. The Cytosponge, which collects tissue from the esophagus noninvasively, could be a cost-effective tool for screening individuals with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) who are at increased risk for BE. We developed a model to analyze the cost effectiveness of using the Cytosponge in first-line screening of patients with GERD for BE with endoscopic confirmation, compared with endoscopy screening only. We incorporated data from a large clinical trial of Cytosponge performance into 2 validated microsimulation models of EAC progression (the esophageal adenocarcinoma model from Massachusetts General Hospital and the microsimulation screening analysis model from Erasmus University Medical Center). The models were calibrated for US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data on EAC incidence and mortality. In each model, we simulated the effect of a 1-time screen for BE in male patients with GERD, 60 years of age, using endoscopy alone or Cytosponge collection of tissue, and analysis for the level of trefoil factor 3 with endoscopic confirmation of positive results. For each strategy we recorded the number of cases of EAC that developed, the number of EAC cases detected with screening by Cytosponge only or by subsequent targeted surveillance, and the number of endoscopies needed. In addition, we recorded the cumulative costs (including indirect costs) incurred and quality-adjusted years of life lived within each strategy, discounted at a rate of 3% per year, and computed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) among the 3 strategies. According to the models, screening patients with GERD by Cytosponge with follow-up confirmation of positive results by endoscopy would reduce the cost of screening by 27% to 29% compared with screening by endoscopy, but led to 1.8 to 5.5 (per 1000 patients) fewer quality-adjusted life years. The ICERs for Cytosponge screening compared with no screening ranged from $26,358 to $33,307. For screening patients by endoscopy compared with Cytosponge the ICERs ranged from $107,583 to $330,361. These results were sensitive to Cytosponge cost within a plausible range of values. In a comparative modeling analysis of screening strategies for BE in patients with GERD, we found Cytosponge screening with endoscopic confirmation to be a cost-effective strategy. The greatest benefit was achieved by endoscopic screening, but with an unfavorable cost margin. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of wind energy potential in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starosta, Katarzyna; Linkowska, Joanna; Mazur, Andrzej

2014-05-01

The aim of the presentation is to show the suitability of using numerical model wind speed forecasts for the wind power industry applications in Poland. In accordance with the guidelines of the European Union, the consumption of wind energy in Poland is rapidly increasing. According to the report of Energy Regulatory Office from 30 March 2013, the installed capacity of wind power in Poland was 2807MW from 765 wind power stations. Wind energy is strongly dependent on the meteorological conditions. Based on the climatological wind speed data, potential energy zones within the area of Poland have been developed (H. Lorenc). They are the first criterion for assessing the location of the wind farm. However, for exact monitoring of a given wind farm location the prognostic data from numerical model forecasts are necessary. For the practical interpretation and further post-processing, the verification of the model data is very important. Polish Institute Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI) runs an operational model COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling, version 4.8) using two nested domains at horizontal resolutions of 7 km and 2.8 km. The model produces 36 hour and 78 hour forecasts from 00 UTC, for 2.8 km and 7 km domain resolutions respectively. Numerical forecasts were compared with the observation of 60 SYNOP and 3 TEMP stations in Poland, using VERSUS2 (Unified System Verification Survey 2) and R package. For every zone the set of statistical indices (ME, MAE, RMSE) was calculated. Forecast errors for aerological profiles are shown for Polish TEMP stations at Wrocław, Legionowo and Łeba. The current studies are connected with a topic of the COST ES1002 WIRE-Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies.

The Evonik-Mainz Eye Care-Study (EMECS): Development of an Expert System for Glaucoma Risk Detection in a Working Population

PubMed Central

Wahl, Jochen; Barleon, Lorenz; Morfeld, Peter; Lichtmeß, Andrea; Haas-Brähler, Sibylle; Pfeiffer, Norbert

2016-01-01

Purpose To develop an expert system for glaucoma screening in a working population based on a human expert procedure using images of optic nerve head (ONH), visual field (frequency doubling technology, FDT) and intraocular pressure (IOP). Methods 4167 of 13037 (32%) employees between 40 and 65 years of Evonik Industries were screened. An experienced glaucoma expert (JW) assessed papilla parameters and evaluated all individual screening results. His classification into “no glaucoma”, “possible glaucoma” and “probable glaucoma” was defined as “gold standard”. A screening model was developed which was tested versus the gold-standard. This model took into account the assessment of the ONH. Values and relationships of CDR and IOP and the FDT were considered additionally and a glaucoma score was generated. The structure of the screening model was specified a priori whereas values of the parameters were chosen post-hoc to optimize sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm. Simple screening models based on IOP and / or FDT were investigated for comparison. Results 111 persons (2.66%) were classified as glaucoma suspects, thereof 13 (0.31%) as probable and 98 (2.35%) as possible glaucoma suspects by the expert. Re-evaluation by the screening model revealed a sensitivity of 83.8% and a specificity of 99.6% for all glaucoma suspects. The positive predictive value of the model was 80.2%, the negative predictive value 99.6%. Simple screening models showed insufficient diagnostic accuracy. Conclusion Adjustment of ONH and symmetry parameters with respect to excavation and IOP in an expert system produced sufficiently satisfying diagnostic accuracy. This screening model seems to be applicable in such a working population with relatively low age and low glaucoma prevalence. Different experts should validate the model in different populations. PMID:27479301

The Evonik-Mainz Eye Care-Study (EMECS): Development of an Expert System for Glaucoma Risk Detection in a Working Population.

PubMed

Wahl, Jochen; Barleon, Lorenz; Morfeld, Peter; Lichtmeß, Andrea; Haas-Brähler, Sibylle; Pfeiffer, Norbert

2016-01-01

To develop an expert system for glaucoma screening in a working population based on a human expert procedure using images of optic nerve head (ONH), visual field (frequency doubling technology, FDT) and intraocular pressure (IOP). 4167 of 13037 (32%) employees between 40 and 65 years of Evonik Industries were screened. An experienced glaucoma expert (JW) assessed papilla parameters and evaluated all individual screening results. His classification into "no glaucoma", "possible glaucoma" and "probable glaucoma" was defined as "gold standard". A screening model was developed which was tested versus the gold-standard. This model took into account the assessment of the ONH. Values and relationships of CDR and IOP and the FDT were considered additionally and a glaucoma score was generated. The structure of the screening model was specified a priori whereas values of the parameters were chosen post-hoc to optimize sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm. Simple screening models based on IOP and / or FDT were investigated for comparison. 111 persons (2.66%) were classified as glaucoma suspects, thereof 13 (0.31%) as probable and 98 (2.35%) as possible glaucoma suspects by the expert. Re-evaluation by the screening model revealed a sensitivity of 83.8% and a specificity of 99.6% for all glaucoma suspects. The positive predictive value of the model was 80.2%, the negative predictive value 99.6%. Simple screening models showed insufficient diagnostic accuracy. Adjustment of ONH and symmetry parameters with respect to excavation and IOP in an expert system produced sufficiently satisfying diagnostic accuracy. This screening model seems to be applicable in such a working population with relatively low age and low glaucoma prevalence. Different experts should validate the model in different populations.

Healthcare access and mammography screening in Michigan: a multilevel cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Breast cancer screening rates have increased over time in the United States. However actual screening rates appear to be lower among black women compared with white women. Purpose To assess determinants of breast cancer screening among women in Michigan USA, focusing on individual and neighborhood socio-economic status and healthcare access. Methods Data from 1163 women ages 50-74 years who participated in the 2008 Michigan Special Cancer Behavioral Risk Factor Survey were analyzed. County-level SES and healthcare access were obtained from the Area Resource File. Multilevel logistic regression models were fit using SAS Proc Glimmix to account for clustering of individual observations by county. Separate models were fit for each of the two outcomes of interest; mammography screening and clinical breast examination. For each outcome, two sequential models were fit; a model including individual level covariates and a model including county level covariates. Results After adjusting for misclassification bias, overall cancer screening rates were lower than reported by survey respondents; black women had lower mammography screening rates but higher clinical breast examination rates than white women. However, after adjusting for other individual level variables, race was not a significant predictor of screening. Having health insurance or a usual healthcare provider were the most important predictors of cancer screening. Discussion Access to healthcare is important to ensuring appropriate cancer screening among women in Michigan. PMID:22436125

Predicting Reduction Rates of Energetic Nitroaromatic Compounds Using Calculated One-Electron Reduction Potentials

DOE PAGES

Salter-Blanc, Alexandra; Bylaska, Eric J.; Johnston, Hayley; ...

2015-02-11

The evaluation of new energetic nitroaromatic compounds (NACs) for use in green munitions formulations requires models that can predict their environmental fate. The susceptibility of energetic NACs to nitro reduction might be predicted from correlations between rate constants (k) for this reaction and one-electron reduction potentials (E1NAC) / 0.059 V, but the mechanistic implications of such correlations are inconsistent with evidence from other methods. To address this inconsistency, we have reevaluated existing kinetic data using a (non-linear) free-energy relationship (FER) based on the Marcus theory of outer-sphere electron transfer. For most reductants, the results are inconsistent with rate limitation bymore » an initial, outer-sphere electron transfer, suggesting that the strong correlation between k and E1NAC is justified only as an empirical model. This empirical correlation was used to calibrate a new quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) using previously reported values of k for non-energetic NAC reduction by Fe(II) porphyrin and newly reported values of E1NAC determined using density functional theory at the B3LYP/6-311++G(2d,2p) level with the COSMO solvation model. The QSAR was then validated for energetic NACs using newly measured kinetic data for 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT), and 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN). The data show close agreement with the QSAR, supporting its applicability to energetic NACs.« less

Assessing the Predictability of Convection using Ensemble Data Assimilation of Simulated Radar Observations in an LETKF system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Heiner; Craig, George

2014-05-01

This study uses the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to perform storm-scale Data Assimilation of simulated Doppler radar observations into the non-hydrostatic, convection-permitting COSMO model. In perfect model experiments (OSSEs), it is investigated how the limited predictability of convective storms affects precipitation forecasts. The study compares a fine analysis scheme with small RMS errors to a coarse scheme that allows for errors in position, shape and occurrence of storms in the ensemble. The coarse scheme uses superobservations, a coarser grid for analysis weights, a larger localization radius and larger observation error that allow a broadening of the Gaussian error statistics. Three hour forecasts of convective systems (with typical lifetimes exceeding 6 hours) from the detailed analyses of the fine scheme are found to be advantageous to those of the coarse scheme during the first 1-2 hours, with respect to the predicted storm positions. After 3 hours in the convective regime used here, the forecast quality of the two schemes appears indiscernible, judging by RMSE and verification methods for rain-fields and objects. It is concluded that, for operational assimilation systems, the analysis scheme might not necessarily need to be detailed to the grid scale of the model. Depending on the forecast lead time, and on the presence of orographic or synoptic forcing that enhance the predictability of storm occurrences, analyses from a coarser scheme might suffice.

Biomimetic three-dimensional tissue models for advanced high-throughput drug screening

PubMed Central

Nam, Ki-Hwan; Smith, Alec S.T.; Lone, Saifullah; Kwon, Sunghoon; Kim, Deok-Ho

2015-01-01

Most current drug screening assays used to identify new drug candidates are 2D cell-based systems, even though such in vitro assays do not adequately recreate the in vivo complexity of 3D tissues. Inadequate representation of the human tissue environment during a preclinical test can result in inaccurate predictions of compound effects on overall tissue functionality. Screening for compound efficacy by focusing on a single pathway or protein target, coupled with difficulties in maintaining long-term 2D monolayers, can serve to exacerbate these issues when utilizing such simplistic model systems for physiological drug screening applications. Numerous studies have shown that cell responses to drugs in 3D culture are improved from those in 2D, with respect to modeling in vivo tissue functionality, which highlights the advantages of using 3D-based models for preclinical drug screens. In this review, we discuss the development of microengineered 3D tissue models which accurately mimic the physiological properties of native tissue samples, and highlight the advantages of using such 3D micro-tissue models over conventional cell-based assays for future drug screening applications. We also discuss biomimetic 3D environments, based-on engineered tissues as potential preclinical models for the development of more predictive drug screening assays for specific disease models. PMID:25385716

An Efficient Variable Screening Method for Effective Surrogate Models for Reliability-Based Design Optimization

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-01

surrogate model generation is difficult for high -dimensional problems, due to the curse of dimensionality. Variable screening methods have been...a variable screening model was developed for the quasi-molecular treatment of ion-atom collision [16]. In engineering, a confidence interval of...for high -level radioactive waste [18]. Moreover, the design sensitivity method can be extended to the variable screening method because vital

Hydrodynamic model of screen channel liquid acquisition devices for in-space cryogenic propellant management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darr, Samuel Ryan

Technologies that enable the storage and transfer of cryogenic propellants in space will be needed for the next generation vehicles that will carry humans to Mars. One of the candidate technologies is the screen channel liquid acquisition device (LAD), which uses a metal woven wire mesh to separate the liquid and vapor phases so that single-phase liquid propellant can be transferred in microgravity. The purpose of this work is to provide an accurate hydrodynamic model of the liquid flow through a screen channel LAD. Chapter 2 provides a derivation of the flow-through-screen (FTS) boundary condition. The final boundary condition more accurately represents the complex geometry of metal woven wire mesh than the current model used in the literature. The effect of thermal contraction on the screen geometry due to large temperature changes common in cryogenic systems is quantified in this chapter as well. Chapter 3 provides a two-dimensional (2-D) analytical solution of the velocity and pressure fields in a screen channel LAD. This solution, which accounts for non-uniform injection through the screen, is compared with the traditional 1-D model which assumes a constant, uniform injection velocity. Chapter 4 describes the setup and results of an experiment that measures both the velocity and pressure fields in a screen channel LAD in order to validate the 2-D model. Results show that the 2-D model performs best against the new data and historical data. With the improved FTS boundary condition and the 2-D model, the pressure drop of a screen channel LAD is described with excellent accuracy. The result of this work is a predictive tool that will instill confidence in the design of screen channel LADs for future in-space propulsion systems.

Computed tomography screening for lung cancer: results of ten years of annual screening and validation of cosmos prediction model.

PubMed

Veronesi, G; Maisonneuve, P; Rampinelli, C; Bertolotti, R; Petrella, F; Spaggiari, L; Bellomi, M

2013-12-01

It is unclear how long low-dose computed tomographic (LDCT) screening should continue in populations at high risk of lung cancer. We assessed outcomes and the predictive ability of the COSMOS prediction model in volunteers screened for 10 years. Smokers and former smokers (>20 pack-years), >50 years, were enrolled over one year (2000-2001), receiving annual LDCT for 10 years. The frequency of screening-detected lung cancers was compared with COSMOS and Bach risk model estimates. Among 1035 recruited volunteers (71% men, mean age 58 years) compliance was 65% at study end. Seventy-one (6.95%) lung cancers were diagnosed, 12 at baseline. Disease stage was: IA in 48 (66.6%); IB in 6; IIA in 5; IIB in 2; IIIA in 5; IIIB in 1; IV in 5; and limited small cell cancer in 3. Five- and ten-year survival were 64% and 57%, respectively, 84% and 65% for stage I. Ten (12.1%) received surgery for a benign lesion. The number of lung cancers detected during the first two screening rounds was close to that predicted by the COSMOS model, while the Bach model accurately predicted frequency from the third year on. Neither cancer frequency nor proportion at stage I decreased over 10 years, indicating that screening should not be discontinued. Most cancers were early stage, and overall survival was high. Only a limited number of invasive procedures for benign disease were performed. The Bach model - designed to predict symptomatic cancers - accurately predicted cancer frequency from the third year, suggesting that overdiagnosis is a minor problem in lung cancer screening. The COSMOS model - designed to estimate screening-detected lung cancers - accurately predicted cancer frequency at baseline and second screening round. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Parametric Adaptive Signal Detection with Applications to Radars and Hyperspectral Imaging

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-01

98 8.4.5 Training Screening ............................. .................................................................99 8.5 Experimental...associated with the proposed parametric model. Several im- portant issues are discussed, including model order selection, training screening , and time...parameters associated with the NS-AR model. In addition, we develop model order selection, training screening , and time-series based whitening and

Screening fifth forces in k-essence and DBI models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brax, Philippe; Burrage, Clare; Davis, Anne-Christine, E-mail: Philippe.Brax@cea.fr, E-mail: Clare.Burrage@nottingham.ac.uk, E-mail: A.C.Davis@damtp.cam.ac.uk

New fifth forces have not yet been detected in the laboratory or in the solar system, hence it is typically difficult to introduce new light scalar fields that would mediate such forces. In recent years it has been shown that a number of non-linear scalar field theories allow for a dynamical mechanism, such as the Vainshtein and chameleon ones, that suppresses the strength of the scalar fifth force in experimental environments. This is known as screening, however it is unclear how common screening is within non-linear scalar field theories. k-essence models are commonly studied examples of non-linear models, with DBImore » as the best motivated example, and so we ask whether these non-linearities are able to screen a scalar fifth force. We find that a Vainshtein-like screening mechanism exists for such models although with limited applicability. For instance, we cannot find a screening mechanism for DBI models. On the other hand, we construct a large class of k-essence models which lead to the acceleration of the Universe in the recent past for which the fifth force mediated by the scalar can be screened.« less

A Comparison of Parallel and Integrated Models for Implementation of Routine HIV Screening in a Large, Urban Emergency Department.

PubMed

Hankin, Abigail; Freiman, Heather; Copeland, Brittney; Travis, Natasha; Shah, Bijal

2016-01-01

This study compared two approaches for implementation of non-targeted HIV screening in the emergency department (ED): (1) designated HIV counselors screening in parallel with ED care and (2) nurse-based screening integrated into patient triage. A retrospective analysis was performed to compare parallel and integrated screening models using data from the first 12 months of each program. Data for the parallel screening model were extracted from information collected by HIV test counselors and the electronic medical record (EMR). Integrated screening model data were extracted from the EMR and supplemented by data collected by HIV social workers during patient interaction. For both programs, data included demographics, HIV test offer, test acceptance or declination, and test result. A Z-test between two proportions was performed to compare screening frequencies and results. During the first 12 months of parallel screening, approximately 120,000 visits were made to the ED, with 3,816 (3%) HIV tests administered and 65 (2%) new diagnoses of HIV infection. During the first 12 months of integrated screening, 111,738 patients were triaged in the ED, with 16,329 (15%) patients tested and 190 (1%) new diagnoses. Integrated screening resulted in an increased frequency of HIV screening compared with parallel screening (0.15 tests per ED patient visit vs. 0.03 tests per ED patient visit, p<0.001) and an increase in the absolute number of new diagnoses (190 vs. 65), representing a slight decrease in the proportion of new diagnoses (1% vs. 2%, p=0.007). Non-targeted, integrated HIV screening, with test offer and order by ED nurses during patient triage, is feasible and resulted in an increased frequency of HIV screening and a threefold increase in the absolute number of newly identified HIV-positive patients.

Transregional Collaborative Research Centre 32: Patterns in Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masbou, M.; Simmer, C.; Kollet, S.; Boessenkool, K.; Crewell, S.; Diekkrüger, B.; Huber, K.; Klitzsch, N.; Koyama, C.; Vereecken, H.

2012-04-01

The soil-vegetation-atmosphere system is characterized by non-linear exchanges of mass, momentum and energy with complex patterns, structures and processes that act at different temporal and spatial scales. Under the TR32 framework, the characterisation of these structures and patterns will lead to a deeper qualitative and quantitative understanding of the SVA system, and ultimately to better predictions of the SVA state. Research in TR32 is based on three methodological pillars: Monitoring, Modelling and Data Assimilation. Focusing our research on the Rur Catchment (Germany), patterns are monitored since 2006 continuously using existing and novel geophysical and remote sensing techniques from the local to the catchment scale based on ground penetrating radar methods, induced polarization, radiomagnetotellurics, electrical resistivity tomography, boundary layer scintillometry, lidar techniques, cosmic-ray, microwave radiometry, and precipitation radars with polarization diversity. Modelling approaches involve development of scaled consistent coupled model platform: high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP; 400m) and hydrological models (few meters). In the second phase (2011-2014), the focus is on the integration of models from the groundwater to the atmosphere for both the m- and km-scale and the extension of the experimental monitoring in respect to vegetation. The coupled modelling platform is based on the atmospheric model COSMO, the land surface model CLM and the hydrological model ParFlow. A scale consistent two-way coupling is performed using the external OASIS coupler. Example work includes the transfer of laboratory methods to the field; the measurements of patterns of soil-carbon, evapotranspiration and respiration measured in the field; catchment-scale modeling of exchange processes and the setup of an atmospheric boundary layer monitoring network. These modern and predominantly non-invasive measurement techniques are exploited in combination with advanced modelling systems by data assimilation to yield improved numerical models for the prediction of water-, energy and CO2-transfer by accounting for the patterns occurring at various scales.

[Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal screening for thyroid disease in pregnant women in Spain].

PubMed

Donnay Candil, Sergio; Balsa Barro, José Antonio; Álvarez Hernández, Julia; Crespo Palomo, Carlos; Pérez-Alcántara, Ferrán; Polanco Sánchez, Carlos

2015-01-01

To assess the cost-effectiveness of universal screening for thyroid disease in pregnant women in Spain as compared to high risk screening and no screening. A decision-analytic model comparing the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) of universal screening versus high risk screening and versus no screening. was used for the pregnancy and postpartum period. Probabilities from randomized controlled trials were considered for adverse obstetrical outcomes. A Markov model was used to assess the lifetime period after the first postpartum year and account for development of overt hypothyroidism. The main assumptions in the model and use of resources were assessed by local clinical experts. The analysis considered direct healthcare costs only. Universal screening gained .011 QALYs over high risk screening and .014 QALYS over no screening. Total direct costs per patient were €5,786 for universal screening, €5,791 for high risk screening, and €5,781 for no screening. Universal screening was dominant compared to risk-based screening and a very cost-effective alternative as compared to no screening. Use of universal screening instead of high risk screening would result in €2,653,854 annual savings for the Spanish National Health System. Universal screening for thyroid disease in pregnant women in the first trimester is dominant in Spain as compared to risk-based screening, and is cost-effective as compared to no screening (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €374 per QALY). Moreover, it allows diagnosing and treating cases of clinical and subclinical hypothyroidism that may not be detected when only high-risk women are screened. Copyright © 2014 SEEN. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

High-throughput screening (HTS) and modeling of the retinoid ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Presentation at the Retinoids Review 2nd workshop in Brussels, Belgium on the application of high throughput screening and model to the retinoid system Presentation at the Retinoids Review 2nd workshop in Brussels, Belgium on the application of high throughput screening and model to the retinoid system

Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Upper Age Limits for Breast Cancer Screening in England and Wales.

PubMed

Rafia, Rachid; Brennan, Alan; Madan, Jason; Collins, Karen; Reed, Malcolm W R; Lawrence, Gill; Robinson, Thompson; Greenberg, David; Wyld, Lynda

2016-06-01

Currently in the United Kingdom, the National Health Service (NHS) Breast Screening Programme invites all women for triennial mammography between the ages of 47 and 73 years (the extension to 47-50 and 70-73 years is currently examined as part of a randomized controlled trial). The benefits and harms of screening in women 70 years and older, however, are less well documented. The aim of this study was to examine whether extending screening to women older than 70 years would represent a cost-effective use of NHS resources and to identify the upper age limit at which screening mammography should be extended in England and Wales. A mathematical model that allows the impact of screening policies on cancer diagnosis and subsequent management to be assessed was built. The model has two parts: a natural history model of the progression of breast cancer up to discovery and a postdiagnosis model of treatment, recurrence, and survival. The natural history model was calibrated to available data and compared against published literature. The management of breast cancer at diagnosis was taken from registry data and valued using official UK tariffs. The model estimated that screening would lead to overdiagnosis in 6.2% of screen-detected women at the age of 72 years, increasing up to 37.9% at the age of 90 years. Under commonly quoted willingness-to-pay thresholds in the United Kingdom, our study suggests that an extension to screening up to the age of 78 years represents a cost-effective strategy. This study provides encouraging findings to support the extension of the screening program to older ages and suggests that further extension of the UK NHS Breast Screening Programme up to age 78 years beyond the current upper age limit of 73 years could be potentially cost-effective according to current NHS willingness-to-pay thresholds. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applying Risk Prediction Models to Optimize Lung Cancer Screening: Current Knowledge, Challenges, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Sakoda, Lori C; Henderson, Louise M; Caverly, Tanner J; Wernli, Karen J; Katki, Hormuzd A

2017-12-01

Risk prediction models may be useful for facilitating effective and high-quality decision-making at critical steps in the lung cancer screening process. This review provides a current overview of published lung cancer risk prediction models and their applications to lung cancer screening and highlights both challenges and strategies for improving their predictive performance and use in clinical practice. Since the 2011 publication of the National Lung Screening Trial results, numerous prediction models have been proposed to estimate the probability of developing or dying from lung cancer or the probability that a pulmonary nodule is malignant. Respective models appear to exhibit high discriminatory accuracy in identifying individuals at highest risk of lung cancer or differentiating malignant from benign pulmonary nodules. However, validation and critical comparison of the performance of these models in independent populations are limited. Little is also known about the extent to which risk prediction models are being applied in clinical practice and influencing decision-making processes and outcomes related to lung cancer screening. Current evidence is insufficient to determine which lung cancer risk prediction models are most clinically useful and how to best implement their use to optimize screening effectiveness and quality. To address these knowledge gaps, future research should be directed toward validating and enhancing existing risk prediction models for lung cancer and evaluating the application of model-based risk calculators and its corresponding impact on screening processes and outcomes.

Linear free energy relationships between aqueous phase hydroxyl radical reaction rate constants and free energy of activation.

PubMed

Minakata, Daisuke; Crittenden, John

2011-04-15

The hydroxyl radical (HO(•)) is a strong oxidant that reacts with electron-rich sites on organic compounds and initiates complex radical chain reactions in aqueous phase advanced oxidation processes (AOPs). Computer based kinetic modeling requires a reaction pathway generator and predictions of associated reaction rate constants. Previously, we reported a reaction pathway generator that can enumerate the most important elementary reactions for aliphatic compounds. For the reaction rate constant predictor, we develop linear free energy relationships (LFERs) between aqueous phase literature-reported HO(•) reaction rate constants and theoretically calculated free energies of activation for H-atom abstraction from a C-H bond and HO(•) addition to alkenes. The theoretical method uses ab initio quantum mechanical calculations, Gaussian 1-3, for gas phase reactions and a solvation method, COSMO-RS theory, to estimate the impact of water. Theoretically calculated free energies of activation are found to be within approximately ±3 kcal/mol of experimental values. Considering errors that arise from quantum mechanical calculations and experiments, this should be within the acceptable errors. The established LFERs are used to predict the HO(•) reaction rate constants within a factor of 5 from the experimental values. This approach may be applied to other reaction mechanisms to establish a library of rate constant predictions for kinetic modeling of AOPs.

Designing a New Class of Bases for Nucleic Acid Quadruplexes and Quadruplex-Active Ligands.

PubMed

Bazzi, Sophia; Novotný, Jan; Yurenko, Yevgen P; Marek, Radek

2015-06-22

A new class of quadruplex nucleobases, derived from 3-deazaguanine, has been designed for various applications as smart quadruplex ligands as well as quadruplex-based aptamers, receptors, and sensors. An efficient strategy for modifying the guanine quadruplex core has been developed and tested by using quantum chemistry methods. Several potential guanine derivatives modified at the 3- or 8-position or both are analyzed, and the results compared to reference systems containing natural guanine. Analysis of the formation energies (BLYP-D3(BJ)/def2-TZVPP level of theory, in combination with the COSMO model for water) in model systems consisting of two and three stacked tetrads with Na(+) /K(+) ion(s) inside the internal channel indicates that the formation of structures with 3-halo-3-deazaguanine bases leads to a substantial gain in energy, as compared to the corresponding reference guanine complexes. The results cast light on changes in the noncovalent interactions (hydrogen bonding, stacking, and ion coordination) in a quadruplex stem upon modification of the guanine core. In particular, the enhanced stability of the modified quadruplexes was shown to originate mainly from increased π-π stacking. Our study suggests the 3-halo-3-deazaguanine skeleton as a potential building unit for quadruplex systems and smart G-quadruplex ligands. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A multivariate cure model for left-censored and right-censored data with application to colorectal cancer screening patterns.

PubMed

Hagar, Yolanda C; Harvey, Danielle J; Beckett, Laurel A

2016-08-30

We develop a multivariate cure survival model to estimate lifetime patterns of colorectal cancer screening. Screening data cover long periods of time, with sparse observations for each person. Some events may occur before the study begins or after the study ends, so the data are both left-censored and right-censored, and some individuals are never screened (the 'cured' population). We propose a multivariate parametric cure model that can be used with left-censored and right-censored data. Our model allows for the estimation of the time to screening as well as the average number of times individuals will be screened. We calculate likelihood functions based on the observations for each subject using a distribution that accounts for within-subject correlation and estimate parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We apply our methods to the estimation of lifetime colorectal cancer screening behavior in the SEER-Medicare data set. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

2018-02-01

Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

IRRIMET: a web 2.0 advisory service for irrigation water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Michele, Carlo; Anzano, Enrico; Colandrea, Marco; Marotta, Luigi; Mula, Ileana; Pelosi, Anna; D'Urso, Guido; Battista Chirico, Giovanni

2016-04-01

Irrigation agriculture is one the biggest consumer of water in Europe, especially in southern regions, where it accounts for up to 70% of the total water consumption. The EU Common Agricultural Policy, combined with the Water Framework Directive, imposes to farmers and irrigation managers a substantial increase of the efficiency in the use of water in agriculture for the next decade. Irrigating according to reliable crop water requirement estimates is one of the most convincing solution to decrease agricultural water use. Here we present an innovative irrigation advisory service, applied in Campania region (Southern Italy), where a satellite assisted irrigation advisory service has been operating since 2006. The advisory service is based on the optimal combination of VIS-NIR high resolution satellite images (Landsat, Deimos, Rapideye) to map crop vigour, and high resolution numerical weather prediction for assessing the meteorological variables driving the crop water needs in the short-medium range. The advisory service is broadcasted with a simple and intuitive web app interface which makes daily real time irrigation and evapotranspiration maps and customized weather forecasts (based on Cosmo Leps model) accessible from desktop computers, tablets and smartphones.

The artificial object detection and current velocity measurement using SAR ocean surface images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpatov, Boris; Strotov, Valery; Ershov, Maksim; Muraviev, Vadim; Feldman, Alexander; Smirnov, Sergey

2017-10-01

Due to the fact that water surface covers wide areas, remote sensing is the most appropriate way of getting information about ocean environment for vessel tracking, security purposes, ecological studies and others. Processing of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images is extensively used for control and monitoring of the ocean surface. Image data can be acquired from Earth observation satellites, such as TerraSAR-X, ERS, and COSMO-SkyMed. Thus, SAR image processing can be used to solve many problems arising in this field of research. This paper discusses some of them including ship detection, oil pollution control and ocean currents mapping. Due to complexity of the problem several specialized algorithm are necessary to develop. The oil spill detection algorithm consists of the following main steps: image preprocessing, detection of dark areas, parameter extraction and classification. The ship detection algorithm consists of the following main steps: prescreening, land masking, image segmentation combined with parameter measurement, ship orientation estimation and object discrimination. The proposed approach to ocean currents mapping is based on Doppler's law. The results of computer modeling on real SAR images are presented. Based on these results it is concluded that the proposed approaches can be used in maritime applications.

Nonlinear waves in viscoelastic magnetized complex astroplasmas with polarized dust-charge variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Papari; Karmakar, Pralay Kumar

2018-01-01

A nonextensive nonthermal magnetized viscoelastic astrofluid, compositionally containing nonthermal electrons and ions together with massive polarized dust micro-spherical grains of variable electric charge, is allowed to endure weakly nonlinear perturbation around its equilibrium. The nonextensivity originating from the large-scale non-local effects is included via the Tsallis thermo-statistical distribution laws describing the lighter species. Assuming the equilibrium as a homogeneous hydrostatic one, the dust polarization effects are incorporated via the conventional homogeneous polarization force law. The perturbed fluid model evolves as a unique conjugate pair of coupled extended Korteweg-de Vries (e-KdV) equations. A constructed numerical tapestry shows the collective excitations of a new pair of distinct classes of nonlinear mode structures in new parametric space. The first family indicates periodic electrostatic compressive eigenmodes in the form of soliton-chains. Likewise, the second one reveals gravitational rarefactive solitary patterns. Their microphysical multi-parametric dependencies of the eigen-patterns are illustratively analyzed and bolstered. The paper ends up with some promising implications and applications in the astro-cosmo-plasmic context of wave-induced accretive triggering processes responsible for gravitationally bounded (gravito-condensed) astro-structure formation, such as stellesimals, planetsimals, etc.

Validation of Models Used to Inform Colorectal Cancer Screening Guidelines: Accuracy and Implications.

PubMed

Rutter, Carolyn M; Knudsen, Amy B; Marsh, Tracey L; Doria-Rose, V Paul; Johnson, Eric; Pabiniak, Chester; Kuntz, Karen M; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Zauber, Ann G; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2016-07-01

Microsimulation models synthesize evidence about disease processes and interventions, providing a method for predicting long-term benefits and harms of prevention, screening, and treatment strategies. Because models often require assumptions about unobservable processes, assessing a model's predictive accuracy is important. We validated 3 colorectal cancer (CRC) microsimulation models against outcomes from the United Kingdom Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening (UKFSS) Trial, a randomized controlled trial that examined the effectiveness of one-time flexible sigmoidoscopy screening to reduce CRC mortality. The models incorporate different assumptions about the time from adenoma initiation to development of preclinical and symptomatic CRC. Analyses compare model predictions to study estimates across a range of outcomes to provide insight into the accuracy of model assumptions. All 3 models accurately predicted the relative reduction in CRC mortality 10 years after screening (predicted hazard ratios, with 95% percentile intervals: 0.56 [0.44, 0.71], 0.63 [0.51, 0.75], 0.68 [0.53, 0.83]; estimated with 95% confidence interval: 0.56 [0.45, 0.69]). Two models with longer average preclinical duration accurately predicted the relative reduction in 10-year CRC incidence. Two models with longer mean sojourn time accurately predicted the number of screen-detected cancers. All 3 models predicted too many proximal adenomas among patients referred to colonoscopy. Model accuracy can only be established through external validation. Analyses such as these are therefore essential for any decision model. Results supported the assumptions that the average time from adenoma initiation to development of preclinical cancer is long (up to 25 years), and mean sojourn time is close to 4 years, suggesting the window for early detection and intervention by screening is relatively long. Variation in dwell time remains uncertain and could have important clinical and policy implications. © The Author(s) 2016.

Bistatic SAR: Signal Processing and Image Formation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wahl, Daniel E.; Yocky, David A.

This report describes the significant processing steps that were used to take the raw recorded digitized signals from the bistatic synthetic aperture RADAR (SAR) hardware built for the NCNS Bistatic SAR project to a final bistatic SAR image. In general, the process steps herein are applicable to bistatic SAR signals that include the direct-path signal and the reflected signal. The steps include preprocessing steps, data extraction to for a phase history, and finally, image format. Various plots and values will be shown at most steps to illustrate the processing for a bistatic COSMO SkyMed collection gathered on June 10, 2013more » on Kirtland Air Force Base, New Mexico.« less

"Gioco del Mondo" an Alpine Hopscotch Game and Prehistoric Cosmology. (Italian Title: Il "Gioco del Mondo" e il cosmo preistorico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragazzi, G.

2015-04-01

"Gioco del Mondo" ("Hopscotch game" in Anglo-Saxon countries), is a children's game in which the memory of a knowledge belonging to the prehistory of western thought is preserved. The path of the game is an image of the cosmos. The jumps allow the player to move from one region to another in the cosmos, in order to retrieve the pebble, wich is interpreted as a symbol of the human soul. The game is the imitation of a healing ritual in which a shaman brings back the soul kidnapped by a spirit from in his headquarters in a region of the cosmos.

The impact of baryonic matter on gravitational lensing by galaxy clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Brandyn E.; King, Lindsay; Applegate, Douglas; McCarthy, Ian

2017-01-01

Since the bulk of the matter comprising galaxy clusters exists in the form of dark matter, gravitational N-body simulations have historically been an effective way to investigate large scale structure formation and the astrophysics of galaxy clusters. However, upcoming telescopes such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope are expected to have lower systematic errors than older generations, reducing measurement uncertainties and requiring that astrophysicists better quantify the impact of baryonic matter on the cluster lensing signal. Here we outline the effects of baryonic processes on cluster density profiles and on weak lensing mass and concentration estimates. Our analysis is done using clusters grown in the suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations known as cosmo-OWLS.

Randomized controlled trial of storytelling compared to a personal risk tool intervention on colorectal cancer screening in low-income patients.

PubMed

Larkey, Linda K; McClain, Darya; Roe, Denise J; Hector, Richard D; Lopez, Ana Maria; Sillanpaa, Brian; Gonzalez, Julie

2015-01-01

Screening rates for colorectal cancer (CRC) lag for low-income, minority populations, contributing to poorer survival rates. A model of storytelling as culture-centric health promotion was tested for promoting CRC screening. A two-group parallel randomized controlled trial. Primary care, safety-net clinics. Low-income patients due for CRC screening, ages 50 to 75 years, speaking English or Spanish. Patients were exposed to either a video created from personal stories composited into a drama about "Papa" receiving CRC screening, or an instrument estimating level of personal cancer risk. Patients received a health care provider referral for CRC screening and were followed up for 3 months to document adherence. Behavioral factors related to the narrative model (identification and engagement) and theory of planned behavior. Main effects of the interventions on screening were tested, controlling for attrition factors, and demographic factor associations were assessed. Path analysis with model variables was used to test the direct effects and multiple mediator models. Main effects on CRC screening (roughly half stool-based tests, half colonoscopy) did not indicate significant differences (37% and 42% screened for storytelling and risk-based messages, respectively; n = 539; 33.6% male; 62% Hispanic). Factors positively associated with CRC screening included being female, Hispanic, married or living with a partner, speaking Spanish, having a primary care provider, lower income, and no health insurance. Engagement, working through positive attitudes toward the behavior, predicted CRC screening. A storytelling and a personalized risk-tool intervention achieved similar levels of screening among unscreened/underscreened, low-income patients. Factors usually associated with lower rates of screening (e.g., no insurance, being Hispanic) were related to more adherence. Both interventions' engagement factor facilitated positive attitudes about CRC screening associated with behavior change.

Operational SAR Data Processing in GIS Environments for Rapid Disaster Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahr, Thomas

2014-05-01

The use of SAR data has become increasingly popular in recent years and in a wide array of industries. Having access to SAR can be highly important and critical especially for public safety. Updating a GIS with contemporary information from SAR data allows to deliver a reliable set of geospatial information to advance civilian operations, e.g. search and rescue missions. SAR imaging offers the great advantage, over its optical counterparts, of not being affected by darkness, meteorological conditions such as clouds, fog, etc., or smoke and dust, frequently associated with disaster zones. In this paper we present the operational processing of SAR data within a GIS environment for rapid disaster mapping. For this technique we integrated the SARscape modules for ENVI with ArcGIS®, eliminating the need to switch between software packages. Thereby the premier algorithms for SAR image analysis can be directly accessed from ArcGIS desktop and server environments. They allow processing and analyzing SAR data in almost real time and with minimum user interaction. This is exemplified by the November 2010 flash flood in the Veneto region, Italy. The Bacchiglione River burst its banks on Nov. 2nd after two days of heavy rainfall throughout the northern Italian region. The community of Bovolenta, 22 km SSE of Padova, was covered by several meters of water. People were requested to stay in their homes; several roads, highways sections and railroads had to be closed. The extent of this flooding is documented by a series of Cosmo-SkyMed acquisitions with a GSD of 2.5 m (StripMap mode). Cosmo-SkyMed is a constellation of four Earth observation satellites, allowing a very frequent coverage, which enables monitoring using a very high temporal resolution. This data is processed in ArcGIS using a single-sensor, multi-mode, multi-temporal approach consisting of 3 steps: (1) The single images are filtered with a Gamma DE-MAP filter. (2) The filtered images are geocoded using a reference DEM without the need of ground control points. This step includes radiometric calibration. (3) A subsequent change detection analysis generates the final map showing the extent of the flash flood on Nov. 5th 2010. The underlying algorithms are provided by three different sources: Geocoding & radiometric calibration (2) is a standard functionality from the commercial SARscape Toolbox for ArcGIS. This toolbox is extended by the filter tool (1), which is called from the SARscape modules in ENVI. The change detection analysis (3) is based on ENVI processing routines and scripted with IDL. (2) and (3) are integrated with ArcGIS using a predefined Python interface. These 3 processing steps are combined using the ArcGIS ModelBuilder to create a new model for rapid disaster mapping in ArcGIS, based on SAR data. Moreover, this model can be dissolved from its desktop environment and published to users across the ArcGIS Server enterprise. Thus disaster zones, e.g. after severe flooding, can be automatically identified and mapped to support local task forces - using an operational workflow for SAR image analysis, which can be executed by the responsible operators without SAR expert knowledge.

Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

2012-04-01

At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

The influence of subsurface hydrodynamics on convective precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, A. S. M. M.; Sulis, M.; Kollet, S. J.

2014-12-01

The terrestrial hydrological cycle comprises complex processes in the subsurface, land surface, and atmosphere, which are connected via complex non-linear feedback mechanisms. The influence of subsurface hydrodynamics on land surface mass and energy fluxes has been the subject of previous studies. Several studies have also investigated the soil moisture-precipitation feedback, neglecting however the connection with groundwater dynamics. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of subsurface hydrodynamics on convective precipitation events via shallow soil moisture and land surface processes. A scale-consistent Terrestrial System Modeling Platform (TerrSysMP) that consists of an atmospheric model (COSMO), a land surface model (CLM), and a three-dimensional variably saturated groundwater-surface water flow model (ParFlow), is used to simulate hourly mass and energy fluxes over days with convective rainfall events over the Rur catchment, Germany. In order to isolate the effect of groundwater dynamics on convective precipitation, two different model configurations with identical initial conditions are considered. The first configuration allows the groundwater table to evolve through time, while a spatially distributed, temporally constant groundwater table is prescribed as a lower boundary condition in the second configuration. The simulation results suggest that groundwater dynamics influence land surface soil moisture, which in turn affects the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height by modifying atmospheric thermals. It is demonstrated that because of this sensitivity of ABL height to soil moisture-temperature feedback, the onset and magnitude of convective precipitation is influenced by subsurface hydrodynamics. Thus, the results provide insight into the soil moisture-precipitation feedback including groundwater dynamics in a physically consistent manner by closing the water cycle from aquifers to the atmosphere.

Source model for the Copahue volcano magma plumbing system constrained by InSAR surface deformation observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundgren, Paul; Nikkhoo, Mehdi; Samsonov, Sergey V.; Milillo, Pietro; Gil-Cruz, Fernando; Lazo, Jonathan

2017-07-01

Copahue volcano straddling the edge of the Agrio-Caviahue caldera along the Chile-Argentina border in the southern Andes has been in unrest since inflation began in late 2011. We constrain Copahue's source models with satellite and airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) deformation observations. InSAR time series from descending track RADARSAT-2 and COSMO-SkyMed data span the entire inflation period from 2011 to 2016, with their initially high rates of 12 and 15 cm/yr, respectively, slowing only slightly despite ongoing small eruptions through 2016. InSAR ascending and descending track time series for the 2013-2016 time period constrain a two-source compound dislocation model, with a rate of volume increase of 13 × 106 m3/yr. They consist of a shallow, near-vertical, elongated source centered at 2.5 km beneath the summit and a deeper, shallowly plunging source centered at 7 km depth connecting the shallow source to the deeper caldera. The deeper source is located directly beneath the volcano tectonic seismicity with the lower bounds of the seismicity parallel to the plunge of the deep source. InSAR time series also show normal fault offsets on the NE flank Copahue faults. Coulomb stress change calculations for right-lateral strike slip (RLSS), thrust, and normal receiver faults show positive values in the north caldera for both RLSS and normal faults, suggesting that northward trending seismicity and Copahue fault motion within the caldera are caused by the modeled sources. Together, the InSAR-constrained source model and the seismicity suggest a deep conduit or transfer zone where magma moves from the central caldera to Copahue's upper edifice.

Effect of vibration on retention characteristics of screen acquisition systems. [for surface tension propellant acquisition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tegart, J. R.; Aydelott, J. C.

1978-01-01

The design of surface tension propellant acquisition systems using fine-mesh screen must take into account all factors that influence the liquid pressure differentials within the system. One of those factors is spacecraft vibration. Analytical models to predict the effects of vibration have been developed. A test program to verify the analytical models and to allow a comparative evaluation of the parameters influencing the response to vibration was performed. Screen specimens were tested under conditions simulating the operation of an acquisition system, considering the effects of such parameters as screen orientation and configuration, screen support method, screen mesh, liquid flow and liquid properties. An analytical model, based on empirical coefficients, was most successful in predicting the effects of vibration.

Drug screening using model systems: some basics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT An increasing number of laboratories that focus on model systems are considering drug screening. Executing a drug screen is complicated enough. But the path for moving initial hits towards the clinic requires a different knowledge base and even a different mindset. In this Editorial I discuss the importance of doing some homework before you start screening. 'Lead hits', 'patentable chemical space' and 'druggability' are all concepts worth exploring when deciding which screening path to take. I discuss some of the lessons I learned that may be useful as you navigate the screening matrix. PMID:27821602

Application of ToxCast High-Throughput Screening and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Slide presentation at the SETAC annual meeting on High-Throughput Screening and Modeling Approaches to Identify Steroidogenesis Distruptors Slide presentation at the SETAC annual meeting on High-Throughput Screening and Modeling Approaches to Identify Steroidogenssis Distruptors

Carbon monoxide screen for signalized intersections COSIM, version 3.0 : technical documentation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-07-01

The Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) currently uses the computer screening model Illinois : CO Screen for Intersection Modeling (COSIM) to estimate worst-case CO concentrations for proposed roadway : projects affecting signalized intersec...

Assessing the uncertainty of soil moisture impacts on convective precipitation using a new ensemble approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henneberg, Olga; Ament, Felix; Grützun, Verena

2018-05-01

Soil moisture amount and distribution control evapotranspiration and thus impact the occurrence of convective precipitation. Many recent model studies demonstrate that changes in initial soil moisture content result in modified convective precipitation. However, to quantify the resulting precipitation changes, the chaotic behavior of the atmospheric system needs to be considered. Slight changes in the simulation setup, such as the chosen model domain, also result in modifications to the simulated precipitation field. This causes an uncertainty due to stochastic variability, which can be large compared to effects caused by soil moisture variations. By shifting the model domain, we estimate the uncertainty of the model results. Our novel uncertainty estimate includes 10 simulations with shifted model boundaries and is compared to the effects on precipitation caused by variations in soil moisture amount and local distribution. With this approach, the influence of soil moisture amount and distribution on convective precipitation is quantified. Deviations in simulated precipitation can only be attributed to soil moisture impacts if the systematic effects of soil moisture modifications are larger than the inherent simulation uncertainty at the convection-resolving scale. We performed seven experiments with modified soil moisture amount or distribution to address the effect of soil moisture on precipitation. Each of the experiments consists of 10 ensemble members using the deep convection-resolving COSMO model with a grid spacing of 2.8 km. Only in experiments with very strong modification in soil moisture do precipitation changes exceed the model spread in amplitude, location or structure. These changes are caused by a 50 % soil moisture increase in either the whole or part of the model domain or by drying the whole model domain. Increasing or decreasing soil moisture both predominantly results in reduced precipitation rates. Replacing the soil moisture with realistic fields from different days has an insignificant influence on precipitation. The findings of this study underline the need for uncertainty estimates in soil moisture studies based on convection-resolving models.

[Economic impact of lung cancer screening in France: A modeling study].

PubMed

Gendarme, S; Perrot, É; Reskot, F; Bhoowabul, V; Fourre, G; Souquet, P-J; Milleron, B; Couraud, S

2017-09-01

The National Lung Screening Trial found that, in a selected population with a high risk of lung cancer, an annual low-dose CT-scan decreased lung cancer mortality by 20% and overall mortality by 7% compared to annual chest X-Ray. In France, a work group stated that individual screening should be considered in this setting. However, the economic impact of an organized and generalized (to all eligible individuals) screening in France was never reported. This is a modeling study using French population demographic data and published data from randomized screening trials. We used the same selection criteria as NLST: 55-74-year-old smokers for at least 30 pack-years, current smoker or quit less than 15 years. We computed a second model including also 50-54-year-old individuals. Then, we used different participation rates: 65%, 45%, and 32%. According to the considered model, there would be 1,650,588 to 2,283,993 subjects eligible to screening in France. According to the model and participation rate, lung cancer screening would diagnose 3600 to 10,118 stages 1/2 lung cancer each year. There would be 5991 to 16,839 false-positives, of whom 1416 to 3981 would undergo unnecessary surgery. Screening policy would cost 105 to 215 € million per year. However, increasing the price of a cigarette pack by 0.05 to 0.10 € would fully cover the screening costs. Participation rate is a key point for screening impact. Screening could be easily funded by a small increase in cigarette prices. Copyright © 2015 SPLF. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Feasibility and patient acceptability of a novel artificial intelligence-based screening model for diabetic retinopathy at endocrinology outpatient services: a pilot study.

PubMed

Keel, Stuart; Lee, Pei Ying; Scheetz, Jane; Li, Zhixi; Kotowicz, Mark A; MacIsaac, Richard J; He, Mingguang

2018-03-12

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the feasibility and patient acceptability of a novel artificial intelligence (AI)-based diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening model within endocrinology outpatient settings. Adults with diabetes were recruited from two urban endocrinology outpatient clinics and single-field, non-mydriatic fundus photographs were taken and graded for referable DR ( ≥ pre-proliferative DR). Each participant underwent; (1) automated screening model; where a deep learning algorithm (DLA) provided real-time reporting of results; and (2) manual model where retinal images were transferred to a retinal grading centre and manual grading outcomes were distributed to the patient within 2 weeks of assessment. Participants completed a questionnaire on the day of examination and 1-month following assessment to determine overall satisfaction and the preferred model of care. In total, 96 participants were screened for DR and the mean assessment time for automated screening was 6.9 minutes. Ninety-six percent of participants reported that they were either satisfied or very satisfied with the automated screening model and 78% reported that they preferred the automated model over manual. The sensitivity and specificity of the DLA for correct referral was 92.3% and 93.7%, respectively. AI-based DR screening in endocrinology outpatient settings appears to be feasible and well accepted by patients.

Hydrodynamic model of screen channel liquid acquisition devices for in-space cryogenic propellant management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darr, S. R.; Camarotti, C. F.; Hartwig, J. W.; Chung, J. N.

2017-01-01

Technologies that enable the storage and transfer of cryogenic propellants in space will be needed for the next generation vehicles that will carry humans to Mars. One of the candidate technologies is the screen channel liquid acquisition device (LAD), which uses a metal woven wire mesh to separate the liquid and vapor phases so that single-phase liquid propellant can be transferred in microgravity. In this work, an experiment is carried out that provides measurements of the velocity and pressure fields in a screen channel LAD. These data are used to validate a new analytical solution of the liquid flow through a screen channel LAD. This hydrodynamic model, which accounts for non-uniform injection through the screen, is compared with the traditional pressure term summation model which assumes a constant, uniform injection velocity. Results show that the new model performs best against the new data and historical data. The velocity measurements inside the screen channel LAD are used to provide a more accurate velocity profile which further improves the new model. The result of this work is a predictive tool that will instill confidence in the design of screen channel LADs for future in-space propulsion systems.

Effects of Screening and Systemic Adjuvant Therapy on ER-Specific US Breast Cancer Mortality

PubMed Central

Munoz, Diego; Near, Aimee M.; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T.; Lee, Sandra J.; Schechter, Clyde B.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Berry, Donald A.; Burnside, Elizabeth S.; Chang, Yaojen; Chisholm, Gary; de Koning, Harry J.; Ali Ergun, Mehmet; Heijnsdijk, Eveline A. M.; Huang, Hui; Stout, Natasha K.; Sprague, Brian L.; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S.

2014-01-01

Background Molecular characterization of breast cancer allows subtype-directed interventions. Estrogen receptor (ER) is the longest-established molecular marker. Methods We used six established population models with ER-specific input parameters on age-specific incidence, disease natural history, mammography characteristics, and treatment effects to quantify the impact of screening and adjuvant therapy on age-adjusted US breast cancer mortality by ER status from 1975 to 2000. Outcomes included stage-shifts and absolute and relative reductions in mortality; sensitivity analyses evaluated the impact of varying screening frequency or accuracy. Results In the year 2000, actual screening and adjuvant treatment reduced breast cancer mortality by a median of 17 per 100000 women (model range = 13–21) and 5 per 100000 women (model range = 3–6) for ER-positive and ER-negative cases, respectively, relative to no screening and no adjuvant treatment. For ER-positive cases, adjuvant treatment made a higher relative contribution to breast cancer mortality reduction than screening, whereas for ER-negative cases the relative contributions were similar for screening and adjuvant treatment. ER-negative cases were less likely to be screen-detected than ER-positive cases (35.1% vs 51.2%), but when screen-detected yielded a greater survival gain (five-year breast cancer survival = 35.6% vs 30.7%). Screening biennially would have captured a lower proportion of mortality reduction than annual screening for ER-negative vs ER-positive cases (model range = 80.2%–87.8% vs 85.7%–96.5%). Conclusion As advances in risk assessment facilitate identification of women with increased risk of ER-negative breast cancer, additional mortality reductions could be realized through more frequent targeted screening, provided these benefits are balanced against screening harms. PMID:25255803

Computationally inexpensive identification of noninformative model parameters by sequential screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuntz, Matthias; Mai, Juliane; Zink, Matthias; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Schäfer, David; Schrön, Martin; Craven, John; Rakovec, Oldrich; Spieler, Diana; Prykhodko, Vladyslav; Dalmasso, Giovanni; Musuuza, Jude; Langenberg, Ben; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis

2015-08-01

Environmental models tend to require increasing computational time and resources as physical process descriptions are improved or new descriptions are incorporated. Many-query applications such as sensitivity analysis or model calibration usually require a large number of model evaluations leading to high computational demand. This often limits the feasibility of rigorous analyses. Here we present a fully automated sequential screening method that selects only informative parameters for a given model output. The method requires a number of model evaluations that is approximately 10 times the number of model parameters. It was tested using the mesoscale hydrologic model mHM in three hydrologically unique European river catchments. It identified around 20 informative parameters out of 52, with different informative parameters in each catchment. The screening method was evaluated with subsequent analyses using all 52 as well as only the informative parameters. Subsequent Sobol's global sensitivity analysis led to almost identical results yet required 40% fewer model evaluations after screening. mHM was calibrated with all and with only informative parameters in the three catchments. Model performances for daily discharge were equally high in both cases with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies above 0.82. Calibration using only the informative parameters needed just one third of the number of model evaluations. The universality of the sequential screening method was demonstrated using several general test functions from the literature. We therefore recommend the use of the computationally inexpensive sequential screening method prior to rigorous analyses on complex environmental models.

Computationally inexpensive identification of noninformative model parameters by sequential screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, Juliane; Cuntz, Matthias; Zink, Matthias; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Schäfer, David; Schrön, Martin; Craven, John; Rakovec, Oldrich; Spieler, Diana; Prykhodko, Vladyslav; Dalmasso, Giovanni; Musuuza, Jude; Langenberg, Ben; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis

2016-04-01

Environmental models tend to require increasing computational time and resources as physical process descriptions are improved or new descriptions are incorporated. Many-query applications such as sensitivity analysis or model calibration usually require a large number of model evaluations leading to high computational demand. This often limits the feasibility of rigorous analyses. Here we present a fully automated sequential screening method that selects only informative parameters for a given model output. The method requires a number of model evaluations that is approximately 10 times the number of model parameters. It was tested using the mesoscale hydrologic model mHM in three hydrologically unique European river catchments. It identified around 20 informative parameters out of 52, with different informative parameters in each catchment. The screening method was evaluated with subsequent analyses using all 52 as well as only the informative parameters. Subsequent Sobol's global sensitivity analysis led to almost identical results yet required 40% fewer model evaluations after screening. mHM was calibrated with all and with only informative parameters in the three catchments. Model performances for daily discharge were equally high in both cases with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies above 0.82. Calibration using only the informative parameters needed just one third of the number of model evaluations. The universality of the sequential screening method was demonstrated using several general test functions from the literature. We therefore recommend the use of the computationally inexpensive sequential screening method prior to rigorous analyses on complex environmental models.

Characteristics of white LED transmission through a smoke screen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Yunfei; Yang, Aiying; Feng, Lihui; Guo, Peng

2018-01-01

The characteristics of white LED transmission through a smoke screen is critical for visible light communication through a smoke screen. Based on the Mie scattering theory, the Monte Carlo transmission model is established. Based on the probability density function, the white LED sampling model is established according to the measured spectrum of a white LED and the distribution angle of the lambert model. The sampling model of smoke screen particle diameter is also established according to its distribution. We simulate numerically the influence the smoke thickness, the smoke concentration and the angle of irradiance of white LED on transmittance of the white LED. We construct a white LED smoke transmission experiment system. The measured result on the light transmittance and the smoke concentration agreed with the simulated result, and demonstrated the validity of simulation model for visible light transmission channel through a smoke screen.

A phase screen model for simulating numerically the propagation of a laser beam in rain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lukin, I P; Rychkov, D S; Falits, A V

2009-09-30

The method based on the generalisation of the phase screen method for a continuous random medium is proposed for simulating numerically the propagation of laser radiation in a turbulent atmosphere with precipitation. In the phase screen model for a discrete component of a heterogeneous 'air-rain droplet' medium, the amplitude screen describing the scattering of an optical field by discrete particles of the medium is replaced by an equivalent phase screen with a spectrum of the correlation function of the effective dielectric constant fluctuations that is similar to the spectrum of a discrete scattering component - water droplets in air. Themore » 'turbulent' phase screen is constructed on the basis of the Kolmogorov model, while the 'rain' screen model utiises the exponential distribution of the number of rain drops with respect to their radii as a function of the rain intensity. Theresults of the numerical simulation are compared with the known theoretical estimates for a large-scale discrete scattering medium. (propagation of laser radiation in matter)« less

Customizing G Protein-coupled receptor models for structure-based virtual screening.

PubMed

de Graaf, Chris; Rognan, Didier

2009-01-01

This review will focus on the construction, refinement, and validation of G Protein-coupled receptor models for the purpose of structure-based virtual screening. Practical tips and tricks derived from concrete modeling and virtual screening exercises to overcome the problems and pitfalls associated with the different steps of the receptor modeling workflow will be presented. These examples will not only include rhodopsin-like (class A), but also secretine-like (class B), and glutamate-like (class C) receptors. In addition, the review will present a careful comparative analysis of current crystal structures and their implication on homology modeling. The following themes will be discussed: i) the use of experimental anchors in guiding the modeling procedure; ii) amino acid sequence alignments; iii) ligand binding mode accommodation and binding cavity expansion; iv) proline-induced kinks in transmembrane helices; v) binding mode prediction and virtual screening by receptor-ligand interaction fingerprint scoring; vi) extracellular loop modeling; vii) virtual filtering schemes. Finally, an overview of several successful structure-based screening shows that receptor models, despite structural inaccuracies, can be efficiently used to find novel ligands.

The DACCIWA model evaluation project: representation of the meteorology of southern West Africa in state-of-the-art weather, seasonal and climate prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniffka, Anke; Benedetti, Angela; Knippertz, Peter; Stanelle, Tanja; Brooks, Malcolm; Deetz, Konrad; Maranan, Marlon; Rosenberg, Philip; Pante, Gregor; Allan, Richard; Hill, Peter; Adler, Bianca; Fink, Andreas; Kalthoff, Norbert; Chiu, Christine; Vogel, Bernhard; Field, Paul; Marsham, John

2017-04-01

DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) is an EU-funded project that aims to determine the influence of anthropogenic and natural emissions on the atmospheric composition, air quality, weather and climate over southern West Africa. DACCIWA organised a major international field campaign in June-July 2016 and involves a wide range of modelling activities. Here we report about the coordinated model evaluation performed in the framework of DACCIWA focusing on meteorological fields. This activity consists of two elements: (a) the quality of numerical weather prediction during the field campaign, (b) the ability of seasonal and climate models to represent the mean state and its variability. For the first element, the extensive observations from the main field campaign in West Africa in June-July 2016 (ground supersites, radiosondes, aircraft measurements) will be combined with conventional data (synoptic stations, satellites data from various sensors) to evaluate models against. The forecasts include operational products from centres such as the ECMWF, UK MetOffice and the German Weather Service and runs specifically conducted for the planning and the post-analysis of the field campaign using higher resolutions (e.g., WRF, COSMO). The forecast and the observations are analysed in a concerted way to assess the ability of the models to represent the southern West African weather systems and secondly to provide a comprehensive synoptic overview of the state of the atmosphere. In a second step the process will be extended to long-term modelling periods. This includes both seasonal and climate models, respectively. In this case, the observational dataset contains long-term satellite observations and station data, some of which were digitised from written records in the framework of DACCIWA. Parameter choice and spatial averaging will build directly on the weather forecasting evaluation to allow an assessment of the impact of short-term errors on long-term simulations.

Event-based aquifer-to-atmosphere modeling over the European CORDEX domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keune, J.; Goergen, K.; Sulis, M.; Shrestha, P.; Springer, A.; Kusche, J.; Ohlwein, C.; Kollet, S. J.

2014-12-01

Despite the fact that recent studies focus on the impact of soil moisture on climate and especially land-energy feedbacks, groundwater dynamics are often neglected or conceptual groundwater flow models are used. In particular, in the context of climate change and the occurrence of droughts and floods, a better understanding and an improved simulation of the physical processes involving groundwater on continental scales is necessary. This requires the implementation of a physically consistent terrestrial modeling system, which explicitly incorporates groundwater dynamics and the connection with shallow soil moisture. Such a physics-based system enables simulations and monitoring of groundwater storage and enhanced representations of the terrestrial energy and hydrologic cycles over long time periods. On shorter timescales, the prediction of groundwater-related extremes, such as floods and droughts, are expected to improve, because of the improved simulation of components of the hydrological cycle. In this study, we present a fully coupled aquifer-to-atmosphere modeling system over the European CORDEX domain. The integrated Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform, TerrSysMP, consisting of the three-dimensional subsurface model ParFlow, the Community Land Model CLM3.5 and the numerical weather prediction model COSMO of the German Weather Service, is used. The system is set up with a spatial resolution of 0.11° (12.5km) and closes the terrestrial water and energy cycles from aquifers into the atmosphere. Here, simulations of the fully coupled system are performed over events, such as the 2013 flood in Central Europe and the 2003 European heat wave, and over extended time periods on the order of 10 years. State and flux variables of the terrestrial hydrologic and energy cycle are analyzed and compared to both in situ (e.g. stream and water level gauge networks, FLUXNET) and remotely sensed observations (e.g. GRACE, ESA ICC ECV soil moisture and SMOS). Additionally, the presented modeling system may be useful in the assessment of groundwater-related uncertainties in virtual reality and scenario simulations.

Continuously on-­going regional climate hindcast simulations for impact applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anders, Ivonne; Piringer, Martin; Kaufmann, Hildegard; Knauder, Werner; Resch, Gernot; Andre, Konrad

2017-04-01

Observational data for e.g. temperature, precipitation, radiation, or wind are often used as meteorological forcing for different impact models, like e.g. crop models, urban models, economic models and energy system models. To assess a climate signal, the time period covered by the observation is often too short, they have gaps in between, and are inhomogeneous over time, due to changes in the measurements itself or in the near surrounding. Thus output from global and regional climate models can close the gap and provide homogeneous and physically consistent time series of meteorological parameters. CORDEX evaluation runs performed for the IPCC-AR5 provide a good base for the regional scale. However, with respect to climate services, continuously on-going hindcast simulations are required for regularly updated applications. The Climate Research group at the national Austrian weather service, ZAMG, is focusing on high mountain regions and, especially on the Alps. The hindcast-simulation performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM is forced by ERAinterim and optimized for the Alpine Region. The simulation available for the period of 1979-2015 in a spatial resolution of about 10km is prolonged ongoing and fullfils the customer's needs with respect of output variables, levels, intervals and statistical measures. One of the main tasks is to capture strong precipitation events which often occur during summer when low pressure systems develop over the Golf of Genoa, moving to the Northeast. This leads to floods and landslide events in Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. Such events are not sufficiently represented in the CORDEX-evaluation runs. ZAMG use high quality gridded precipitation and temperature data for the Alpine Region (1-6km) to evaluate the model performance. Data is provided e.g. to hydrological modellers (high water, low water), but also to assess icing capability of infrastructure or the calculation the separation distances between livestock farming and residential area.

Coca (Erythroxylum coca) Control is Affected by Glyphosate Formulations and Adjuvants.

PubMed

Marshall, E J P; Solomon, Keith R; Carrasquilla, Gabriel

2009-01-01

The aerial spray program for the eradication of coca in Colombia uses Glyphos, a local formulation of glyphosate tank-mixed with an adjuvant product, Cosmo-Flux. There are some potential risks to amphibians from direct overspraying of shallow waters. In order to evaluate potential alternative mixtures, a field experiment was conducted at the Center of National Training of Police Operations in Tolima province, Colombia. Plants of coca were established with irrigation and grown to 75 cm tall. A randomized split-plot design experiment was laid out and sprayed with a range of glyphosate formulations and different adjuvants using an experimental ground sprayer. Assessments were made of plant vigor, height, and above-ground standing crop (fresh weight) 3 wk after application. Resprouting of plants was assessed at 9 wk after treatment. Unformulated glyphosate applied as the product Rodeo gave poorer control of coca than two formulated products, Roundup Biactive (from Europe) and Colombian Glyphos. In general, these products performed well without added adjuvants, giving control similar to that of the eradication mixture with Cosmo-Flux. There was some evidence that addition of the adjuvant Silwet L-77 and to a lesser extent Mixture B (from the United Kingdom) gave more rapid herbicide symptoms. There were also indications that glyphosate rates of less than 3.69 kg acid equivalents (a.e.)/ha could give control in the range of 95%. Depending on the environmental risk requirements, the experiment indicates that, should other spray mixtures be required, there are potential alternatives. These would require extensive field testing to cover different environmental conditions, different coca varieties, and particularly aerial application, prior to a recommendation. Should the glyphosate product require changing, Roundup Biactive may be considered. Should the adjuvant require changing, then on the basis of this research, Silwet L-77 and Mixture B would be good candidates for further evaluation.

An assessment of wind energy potential in Iberia under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Santos, João A.; Rochinha, Carlos; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2015-04-01

Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day-1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (<15% of mean output), but exacerbated in winter (40%). Climate change projections show significant decreases over most of Iberia (<2 MWh day-1). The strong enhancement of autumn potentials in Southern Andalucía is noteworthy (>2 MWh day-1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. Santos, J.A.; Rochinha, C.; Liberato, M.L.R.; Reyers, M.; Pinto, J.G. (2015) Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, 75, 1: 68-80. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Exploiting COSMO-Skymed Data and Multi-Temporal Interferometry for Early Detection of Landslide Hazard: A Case of Slope Failure and Train Derailment Near Marina Di Andora, Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wasowski, J.; Chiaradia, M.; Bovenga, F.; Nutricato, R.; Nitti, D. O.; Milillo, G.; Guerriero, L.

2014-12-01

The improving temporal and spatial resolutions of new generation space-borne X-Band SAR sensors such as COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) constellation, and therefore their better monitoring capabilities, will guarantee increasing and more efficient use of multi-temporal interferometry (MTI) in landslide investigations. Thanks to their finer spatial resolution with respect to C-band data, X-band InSAR applications are very promising also for monitoring smaller landslides and single engineering structures sited on potentially unstable slopes. This work is focused on the detection of precursory signals of an impending slope failure from MTI time series of ground deformations obtained by exploiting 3 m resolution CSK data. We show the case of retrospectively captured pre-failure strains related to the landslide which occurred on January 2014 close to the town of Marina di Andora. The landslide caused the derailment of a train and the interruption of the railway line connecting north-western Italy to France. A dataset of 56 images acquired in STRIPMAP HIMAGE mode by CSK constellation from October 2008 to May 2014 was processed through SPINUA algorithm to derive the ground surface deformation map and the time series of displacement rates for each coherent radar target. We show that a cluster of moving targets coincides with the structures (buildings and terraces) affected by the 2014 landslide. The analysis of the MTI time series further shows that the targets had been moving since 2009, and thus could have provided a forewarning signal about ongoing slope or engineering structure instability. Although temporal landslide prediction remains difficult even via in situ monitoring, the presented case study indicates that MTI relying on high resolution radars such as CSK can provide very useful information for slope hazard mapping and possibly for early warning. Acknowledgments DIF provided contribution to data analysis within the framework of CAR-SLIDE project funded by MIUR (PON01_00536).

Cross-Cultural Validation of the Preventive Health Model for Colorectal Cancer Screening: An Australian Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flight, Ingrid H.; Wilson, Carlene J.; McGillivray, Jane; Myers, Ronald E.

2010-01-01

We investigated whether the five-factor structure of the Preventive Health Model for colorectal cancer screening, developed in the United States, has validity in Australia. We also tested extending the model with the addition of the factor Self-Efficacy to Screen using Fecal Occult Blood Test (SESFOBT). Randomly selected men and women aged between…

The impact of overdiagnosis on the selection of efficient lung cancer screening strategies.

PubMed

Han, Summer S; Ten Haaf, Kevin; Hazelton, William D; Munshi, Vidit N; Jeon, Jihyoun; Erdogan, Saadet A; Johanson, Colden; McMahon, Pamela M; Meza, Rafael; Kong, Chung Yin; Feuer, Eric J; de Koning, Harry J; Plevritis, Sylvia K

2017-06-01

The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recently updated their national lung screening guidelines and recommended low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for lung cancer (LC) screening through age 80. However, the risk of overdiagnosis among older populations is a concern. Using four comparative models from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network, we evaluate the overdiagnosis of the screening program recommended by USPSTF in the U.S. 1950 birth cohort. We estimate the number of LC deaths averted by screening (D) per overdiagnosed case (O), yielding the ratio D/O, to quantify the trade-off between the harms and benefits of LDCT. We analyze 576 hypothetical screening strategies that vary by age, smoking, and screening frequency and evaluate efficient screening strategies that maximize the D/O ratio and other metrics including D and life-years gained (LYG) per overdiagnosed case. The estimated D/O ratio for the USPSTF screening program is 2.85 (model range: 1.5-4.5) in the 1950 birth cohort, implying LDCT can prevent ∼3 LC deaths per overdiagnosed case. This D/O ratio increases by 22% when the program stops screening at an earlier age 75 instead of 80. Efficiency frontier analysis shows that while the most efficient screening strategies that maximize the mortality reduction (D) irrespective of overdiagnosis screen through age 80, screening strategies that stop at age 75 versus 80 produce greater efficiency in increasing life-years gained per overdiagnosed case. Given the risk of overdiagnosis with LC screening, the stopping age of screening merits further consideration when balancing benefits and harms. © 2017 UICC.

Evaluating the impacts of screening and smoking cessation programmes on lung cancer in a high-burden region of the USA: a simulation modelling study

PubMed Central

Tramontano, Angela C; Sheehan, Deirdre F; McMahon, Pamela M; Dowling, Emily C; Holford, Theodore R; Ryczak, Karen; Lesko, Samuel M; Levy, David T; Kong, Chung Yin

2016-01-01

Objective While the US Preventive Services Task Force has issued recommendations for lung cancer screening, its effectiveness at reducing lung cancer burden may vary at local levels due to regional variations in smoking behaviour. Our objective was to use an existing model to determine the impacts of lung cancer screening alone or in addition to increased smoking cessation in a US region with a relatively high smoking prevalence and lung cancer incidence. Setting Computer-based simulation model. Participants Simulated population of individuals 55 and older based on smoking prevalence and census data from Northeast Pennsylvania. Interventions Hypothetical lung cancer control from 2014 to 2050 through (1) screening with CT, (2) intensified smoking cessation or (3) a combination strategy. Primary and secondary outcome measures Primary outcomes were lung cancer mortality rates. Secondary outcomes included number of people eligible for screening and number of radiation-induced lung cancers. Results Combining lung cancer screening with increased smoking cessation would yield an estimated 8.1% reduction in cumulative lung cancer mortality by 2050. Our model estimated that the number of screening-eligible individuals would progressively decrease over time, indicating declining benefit of a screening-only programme. Lung cancer screening achieved a greater mortality reduction in earlier years, but was later surpassed by smoking cessation. Conclusions Combining smoking cessation programmes with lung cancer screening would provide the most benefit to a population, especially considering the growing proportion of patients ineligible for screening based on current recommendations. PMID:26928026

Postpartum nurses' perceptions of barriers to screening for intimate partner violence: a cross-sectional survey

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a human rights violation that is pervasive worldwide, and is particularly critical for women during the reproductive period. IPV includes physical, sexual and emotional abuse. Nurses on in-patient postpartum units are well-positioned to screen women for IPV, yet low screening rates suggest that barriers to screening exist. The purpose of this study was to (a) identify the frequency of screening for IPV, (b) the most important barriers to screening, (c) the relationship between the barriers to screening and the frequency of screening for types of abuse, and (d) to identify other factors that contribute to the frequency of screening for IPV. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of 96 nurses from postpartum inpatient units in three Canadian urban hospitals. The survey included the Barriers to Abuse Assessment Tool (BAAT), adapted for postpartum nurses (PPN). Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models were used to predict barriers to screening for each type of IPV. Results The frequency of screening varied by the type of abuse with highest screening rates found for physical and emotional abuse. According to the BAAT-PPN, lack of knowledge was the most important barrier to screening. The BAAT-PPN total score was negatively correlated with screening for physical, sexual, and emotional abuse. Using OLS regression models and after controlling for demographic characteristics, the BAAT-PPN explained 14%, 12%, and 11% of the variance in screening for physical, sexual and emotional abuse, respectively. Fluency in the language of the patient was negatively correlated with screening for each type of abuse. When added as Step 3 to OLS regression models, language fluency was associated with an additional decrease in the likelihood of screening for physical (beta coefficient = -.38, P < .001), sexual (beta coefficient = -.24, P = .05), and emotional abuse (beta coefficient = -.48, P < .001) and increased the variance explained by the model to 25%, 17%, and 31%, respectively. Conclusions Our findings support an inverse relationship between rates of screening for IPV and nurses' perceptions of barriers. Barriers to screening for IPV, particularly related to knowledge and language fluency, need to be addressed to increase rates of screening on postpartum units. PMID:22348260

A model to evaluate the costs and clinical effectiveness of human papilloma virus screening compared with annual papanicolaou cytology in Germany.

PubMed

Petry, Karl Ulrich; Barth, Cordula; Wasem, Jürgen; Neumann, Anja

2017-05-01

We modelled human papilloma virus (HPV) primary screening scenarios compared with Pap cytology to evaluate clinical effectiveness and projected annual costs in Germany. A Markov cohort model was built to compare the budget impact of annual Pap cytology with different 5-yearly HPV screening scenarios: (1) a positive HPV test followed by Pap cytology; (2) a positive HPV test followed by p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology; (3) a positive HPV test followed by colposcopy if HPV-16/18-positive or p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology if positive for other subtypes; (4) co-testing with HPV and Pap. Screening scenarios were based on a 10-year horizon. All HPV screening scenarios in the model were associated with fewer deaths from missed diagnosis of cervical cancer compared with Pap screening; 10-year totals n=172-344 (1.5-3 per 100,000) versus n=477 (4.1 per 100,000), respectively. Total annual costs were lower with HPV screening than Pap cytology. The projected average annual cost for HPV screening ranged from €117 million to €136 million compared with €177 million for Pap screening, representing annual savings of €41-60 million. The greatest clinical impact was achieved with primary HPV screening (with genotyping) followed by colposcopy for HPV 16/18-positive women or p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology for women positive for other HPV subtypes. Screening strategies including primary HPV testing for high-risk subtypes (HPV-16/18) in conjunction with p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology can improve the detection of cervical cancer at a lower total annual cost than conventional Pap cytology screening. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Determinants of participation in colorectal cancer screening among community-dwelling Chinese older people: Testing a comprehensive model using a descriptive correlational study.

PubMed

Leung, Doris Y P; Wong, Eliza M L; Chan, Carmen W H

2016-04-01

The prevalence of colorectal cancer (CRC) among older people is high. Screening for CRC presents a cost-effective secondary prevention and control strategy which results in a significant reduction in mortality. This study aims to describe the prevalence of CRC screening and examine its risk factors among Chinese community-dwelling older people guided by a comprehensive model combining Health Belief Model and Extended Parallel Processing Model. A descriptive correlational study was conducted. A convenience sample of 240 community-dwelling adults aged ≥60 was recruited in May-July in 2012 in Hong Kong. Participants were asked to complete a questionnaire which collected information on demographic variables, CRC-related psychosocial variables and whether they had a CRC screening in the past 10 years. Among the participants, 25.4% reported having a CRC screening test. Results of logistic regression analyses indicated that participants with a higher level in cue to action, and lower perceived knowledge barriers and severity-fear were significantly associated with participation in CRC screening. But there were no significant associations between fatalism and cancer fear with screening. The prevalence of CRC screening was low in Hong Kong Chinese community-dwelling elders. A number of modifiable factors associated with CRC screening were identified which provides specific targets for interventions. This study also adds to the knowledge regarding the associations between fatalism and fear with CRC screening behaviors among Chinese older people. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of a school-based amblyopia screening protocol in a kindergarten population.

PubMed

Casas-Llera, Pilar; Ortega, Paula; Rubio, Inmaculada; Santos, Verónica; Prieto, María J; Alio, Jorge L

2016-08-04

To validate a school-based amblyopia screening program model by comparing its outcomes to those of a state-of-the-art conventional ophthalmic clinic examination in a kindergarten population of children between the ages of 4 and 5 years. An amblyopia screening protocol, which consisted of visual acuity measurement using Lea charts, ocular alignment test, ocular motility assessment, and stereoacuity with TNO random-dot test, was performed at school in a pediatric 4- to 5-year-old population by qualified healthcare professionals. The outcomes were validated in a selected group by a conventional ophthalmologic examination performed in a fully equipped ophthalmologic center. The ophthalmologic evaluation was used to confirm whether or not children were correctly classified by the screening protocol. The sensitivity and specificity of the test model to detect amblyopia were established. A total of 18,587 4- to 5-year-old children were subjected to the amblyopia screening program during the 2010-2011 school year. A population of 100 children were selected for the ophthalmologic validation screening. A sensitivity of 89.3%, specificity of 93.1%, positive predictive value of 83.3%, negative predictive value of 95.7%, positive likelihood ratio of 12.86, and negative likelihood ratio of 0.12 was obtained for the amblyopia screening validation model. The amblyopia screening protocol model tested in this investigation shows high sensitivity and specificity in detecting high-risk cases of amblyopia compared to the standard ophthalmologic examination. This screening program may be highly relevant for amblyopia screening at schools.

Selecting a mix of prevention strategies against cervical cancer for maximum efficiency with an optimization program.

PubMed

Demarteau, Nadia; Breuer, Thomas; Standaert, Baudouin

2012-04-01

Screening and vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) can protect against cervical cancer. Neither alone can provide 100% protection. Consequently it raises the important question about the most efficient combination of screening at specified time intervals and vaccination to prevent cervical cancer. Our objective was to identify the mix of cervical cancer prevention strategies (screening and/or vaccination against HPV) that achieves maximum reduction in cancer cases within a fixed budget. We assessed the optimal mix of strategies for the prevention of cervical cancer using an optimization program. The evaluation used two models. One was a Markov cohort model used as the evaluation model to estimate the costs and outcomes of 52 different prevention strategies. The other was an optimization model in which the results of each prevention strategy of the previous model were entered as input data. The latter model determined the combination of the different prevention options to minimize cervical cancer under budget, screening coverage and vaccination coverage constraints. We applied the model in two countries with different healthcare organizations, epidemiology, screening practices, resource settings and treatment costs: the UK and Brazil. 100,000 women aged 12 years and above across the whole population over a 1-year period at steady state were included. The intervention was papanicolaou (Pap) smear screening programmes and/or vaccination against HPV with the bivalent HPV 16/18 vaccine (Cervarix® [Cervarix is a registered trademark of the GlaxoSmithKline group of companies]). The main outcome measures were optimal distribution of the population between different interventions (screening, vaccination, screening plus vaccination and no screening or vaccination) with the resulting number of cervical cancer and associated costs. In the base-case analysis (= same budget as today), the optimal prevention strategy would be, after introducing vaccination with a coverage rate of 80% in girls aged 12 years and retaining screening coverage at pre-vaccination levels (65% in the UK, 50% in Brazil), to increase the screening interval to 6 years (from 3) in the UK and to 5 years (from 3) in Brazil. This would result in a reduction of cervical cancer by 41% in the UK and by 54% in Brazil from pre-vaccination levels with no budget increase. Sensitivity analysis shows that vaccination alone at 80% coverage with no screening would achieve a cervical cancer reduction rate of 20% in the UK and 43% in Brazil compared with the pre-vaccination situation with a budget reduction of 30% and 14%, respectively. In both countries, the sharp reduction in cervical cancer is seen when the vaccine coverage rate exceeds the maximum screening coverage rate, or when screening coverage rate exceeds the maximum vaccine coverage rate, while maintaining the budget. As with any model, there are limitations to the value of predictions depending upon the assumptions made in each model. Spending the same budget that was used for screening and treatment of cervical cancer in the pre-vaccination era, results of the optimization program show that it would be possible to substantially reduce the number of cases by implementing an optimal combination of HPV vaccination (80% coverage) and screening at pre-vaccination coverage (65% UK, 50% Brazil) while extending the screening interval to every 6 years in the UK and 5 years in Brazil.

PSP SAR interferometry monitoring of ground and structure deformations applied to archaeological sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costantini, Mario; Francioni, Elena; Trillo, Francesco; Minati, Federico; Margottini, Claudio; Spizzichino, Daniele; Trigila, Alessandro; Iadanza, Carla

2017-04-01

Archaeological sites and cultural heritage are considered as critical assets for the society, representing not only the history of region or a culture, but also contributing to create a common identity of people living in a certain region. In this view, it is becoming more and more urgent to preserve them from climate changes effect and in general from their degradation. These structures are usually just as precious as fragile: remote sensing technology can be useful to monitor these treasures. In this work, we will focus on ground deformation measurements obtained by satellite SAR interferometry and on the methodology adopted and implemented in order to use the results operatively for conservation policies in a Italian archaeological site. The analysis is based on the processing of COSMO-SkyMed Himage data by the e-GEOS proprietary Persistent Scatterer Pair (PSP) SAR interferometry technology. The PSP technique is a proven SAR interferometry technology characterized by the fact of exploiting in the processing only the relative properties between close points (pairs) in order to overcome atmospheric artefacts (which are one of the main problems of SAR interferometry). Validations analyses [Costantini et al. 2015] settled that this technique applied to COSMO-SkyMed Himage data is able to retrieve very dense (except of course on vegetated or cultivated areas) millimetric deformation measurements with sub-metric localization. Considering the limitations of all the interferometric techniques, in particular the fact that the measurement are along the line of sight (LOS) and the geometric distortions, in order to obtain the maximum information from interferometric analysis, both ascending and descending geometry have been used. The ascending analysis allows selecting measurements points over the top and, approximately, South-West part of the structures, while the descending one over the top and the South-East part of the structures. The interferometric techniques needs to use a stack of SAR images to separate the deformation phase contributions from other spurious components (atmospheric, orbital, etc.). Historical/reference analyses of the period 2011-2014 have been performed to obtain such deformations and to have a start point for the next updates. In fact, starting from the reference analyses the deformation monitoring has then continued with monthly updates of the PSP analysis with new COSMO-SkyMed acquisitions both in ascending and descending geometry. In addition to this traditional monitoring service, the satellite interferometry analysis has been realized over specific time frame that have been selected on the bases of some important events (damages to structures, collapses, works etc.) and the analysis have been correlated with additional site information as weather conditions, critical meteorological events, historical information of the site, etc. The objective is to find a nominal behaviour of the site in response to critical events and/or related to natural degradation of infrastructures in order to prevent damages and guide maintenance activities. The first results of this cross correlated analysis showed that some deformation phenomena are identifiable by SAR satellite interferometric analysis and it has also been possible to validate them on field through a direct survey.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Screening for and Managing Identified Hypertension for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Vietnam

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Thi-Phuong-Lan; Wright, E. Pamela; Nguyen, Thanh-Trung; Schuiling-Veninga, C. C. M.; Bijlsma, M. J.; Nguyen, Thi-Bach-Yen; Postma, M. J.

2016-01-01

Objective To inform development of guidelines for hypertension management in Vietnam, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different strategies on screening for hypertension in preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods A decision tree was combined with a Markov model to measure incremental cost-effectiveness of different approaches to hypertension screening. Values used as input parameters for the model were taken from different sources. Various screening intervals (one-off, annually, biannually) and starting ages to screen (35, 45 or 55 years) and coverage of treatment were analysed. We ran both a ten-year and a lifetime horizon. Input parameters for the models were extracted from local and regional data. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate parameter uncertainty. A threshold of three times GDP per capita was applied. Results Cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained varied in different screening scenarios. In a ten-year horizon, the cost-effectiveness of screening for hypertension ranged from cost saving to Int$ 758,695 per QALY gained. For screening of men starting at 55 years, all screening scenarios gave a high probability of being cost-effective. For screening of females starting at 55 years, the probability of favourable cost-effectiveness was 90% with one-off screening. In a lifetime horizon, cost per QALY gained was lower than the threshold of Int$ 15,883 in all screening scenarios among males. Similar results were found in females when starting screening at 55 years. Starting screening in females at 45 years had a high probability of being cost-effective if screening biannually was combined with increasing coverage of treatment by 20% or even if sole biannual screening was considered. Conclusion From a health economic perspective, integrating screening for hypertension into routine medical examination and related coverage by health insurance could be recommended. Screening for hypertension has a high probability of being cost-effective in preventing CVD. An adequate screening strategy can best be selected based on age, sex and screening interval. PMID:27192051

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Individuals With Cystic Fibrosis for Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Gini, Andrea; Zauber, Ann G; Cenin, Dayna R; Omidvari, Amir-Houshang; Hempstead, Sarah E; Fink, Aliza K; Lowenfels, Albert B; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2017-12-27

Individuals with cystic fibrosis are at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) compared to the general population, and risk is higher among those who received an organ transplant. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine optimal CRC screening strategies for patients with cystic fibrosis. We adjusted the existing Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon microsimulation model to reflect increased CRC risk and lower life expectancy in patients with cystic fibrosis. Modeling was performed separately for individuals who never received an organ transplant and patients who had received an organ transplant. We modeled 76 colonoscopy screening strategies that varied the age range and screening interval. The optimal screening strategy was determined based on a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per life-year gained. Sensitivity and supplementary analyses were performed, including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) as an alternative test, earlier ages of transplantation, and increased rates of colonoscopy complications, to assess whether optimal screening strategies would change. Colonoscopy every 5 years, starting at age 40 years, was the optimal colonoscopy strategy for patients with cystic fibrosis who never received an organ transplant; this strategy prevented 79% of deaths from CRC. Among patients with cystic fibrosis who had received an organ transplant, optimal colonoscopy screening should start at an age of 30 or 35 years, depending on the patient's age at time of transplantation. Annual FIT screening was predicted to be cost-effective for patients with cystic fibrosis. However, the level of accuracy of the FIT in population is not clear. Using a Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon microsimulation model, we found screening of patients with cystic fibrosis for CRC to be cost-effective. Due to the higher risk in these patients for CRC, screening should start at an earlier age with a shorter screening interval. The findings of this study (especially those on FIT screening) may be limited by restricted evidence available for patients with cystic fibrosis. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost Effectiveness of Screening Individuals With Cystic Fibrosis for Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Gini, Andrea; Zauber, Ann G; Cenin, Dayna R; Omidvari, Amir-Houshang; Hempstead, Sarah E; Fink, Aliza K; Lowenfels, Albert B; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2018-02-01

Individuals with cystic fibrosis are at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) compared with the general population, and risk is higher among those who received an organ transplant. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine optimal CRC screening strategies for patients with cystic fibrosis. We adjusted the existing Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model to reflect increased CRC risk and lower life expectancy in patients with cystic fibrosis. Modeling was performed separately for individuals who never received an organ transplant and patients who had received an organ transplant. We modeled 76 colonoscopy screening strategies that varied the age range and screening interval. The optimal screening strategy was determined based on a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per life-year gained. Sensitivity and supplementary analyses were performed, including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) as an alternative test, earlier ages of transplantation, and increased rates of colonoscopy complications, to assess if optimal screening strategies would change. Colonoscopy every 5 years, starting at an age of 40 years, was the optimal colonoscopy strategy for patients with cystic fibrosis who never received an organ transplant; this strategy prevented 79% of deaths from CRC. Among patients with cystic fibrosis who had received an organ transplant, optimal colonoscopy screening should start at an age of 30 or 35 years, depending on the patient's age at time of transplantation. Annual FIT screening was predicted to be cost-effective for patients with cystic fibrosis. However, the level of accuracy of the FIT in this population is not clear. Using a Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model, we found screening of patients with cystic fibrosis for CRC to be cost effective. Because of the higher risk of CRC in these patients, screening should start at an earlier age with a shorter screening interval. The findings of this study (especially those on FIT screening) may be limited by restricted evidence available for patients with cystic fibrosis. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Radiation Risk Models in Cancer Screening Simulations: Important Assumptions and Effects on Outcome Projections

PubMed Central

Lee, Janie M.; McMahon, Pamela M.; Lowry, Kathryn P.; Omer, Zehra B.; Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Pandharipande, Pari V.; Gazelle, G. Scott

2012-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the effect of incorporating radiation risk into microsimulation (first-order Monte Carlo) models for breast and lung cancer screening to illustrate effects of including radiation risk on patient outcome projections. Materials and Methods: All data used in this study were derived from publicly available or deidentified human subject data. Institutional review board approval was not required. The challenges of incorporating radiation risk into simulation models are illustrated with two cancer screening models (Breast Cancer Model and Lung Cancer Policy Model) adapted to include radiation exposure effects from mammography and chest computed tomography (CT), respectively. The primary outcome projected by the breast model was life expectancy (LE) for BRCA1 mutation carriers. Digital mammographic screening beginning at ages 25, 30, 35, and 40 years was evaluated in the context of screenings with false-positive results and radiation exposure effects. The primary outcome of the lung model was lung cancer–specific mortality reduction due to annual screening, comparing two diagnostic CT protocols for lung nodule evaluation. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to estimate the mean values of the results with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Without radiation exposure effects, the breast model indicated that annual digital mammography starting at age 25 years maximized LE (72.03 years; 95% UI: 72.01 years, 72.05 years) and had the highest number of screenings with false-positive results (2.0 per woman). When radiation effects were included, annual digital mammography beginning at age 30 years maximized LE (71.90 years; 95% UI: 71.87 years, 71.94 years) with a lower number of screenings with false-positive results (1.4 per woman). For annual chest CT screening of 50-year-old females with no follow-up for nodules smaller than 4 mm in diameter, the lung model predicted lung cancer–specific mortality reduction of 21.50% (95% UI: 20.90%, 22.10%) without radiation risk and 17.75% (95% UI: 16.97%, 18.41%) with radiation risk. Conclusion: Because including radiation exposure risk can influence long-term projections from simulation models, it is important to include these risks when conducting modeling-based assessments of diagnostic imaging. © RSNA, 2012 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.11110352/-/DC1 PMID:22357897

A stochastic ensemble-based model to predict crop water requirements from numerical weather forecasts and VIS-NIR high resolution satellite images in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelosi, Anna; Falanga Bolognesi, Salvatore; De Michele, Carlo; Medina Gonzalez, Hanoi; Villani, Paolo; D'Urso, Guido; Battista Chirico, Giovanni

2015-04-01

Irrigation agriculture is one the biggest consumer of water in Europe, especially in southern regions, where it accounts for up to 70% of the total water consumption. The EU Common Agricultural Policy, combined with the Water Framework Directive, imposes to farmers and irrigation managers a substantial increase of the efficiency in the use of water in agriculture for the next decade. Ensemble numerical weather predictions can be valuable data for developing operational advisory irrigation services. We propose a stochastic ensemble-based model providing spatial and temporal estimates of crop water requirements, implemented within an advisory service offering detailed maps of irrigation water requirements and crop water consumption estimates, to be used by water irrigation managers and farmers. The stochastic model combines estimates of crop potential evapotranspiration retrieved from ensemble numerical weather forecasts (COSMO-LEPS, 16 members, 7 km resolution) and canopy parameters (LAI, albedo, fractional vegetation cover) derived from high resolution satellite images in the visible and near infrared wavelengths. The service provides users with daily estimates of crop water requirements for lead times up to five days. The temporal evolution of the crop potential evapotranspiration is simulated with autoregressive models. An ensemble Kalman filter is employed for updating model states by assimilating both ground based meteorological variables (where available) and numerical weather forecasts. The model has been applied in Campania region (Southern Italy), where a satellite assisted irrigation advisory service has been operating since 2006. This work presents the results of the system performance for one year of experimental service. The results suggest that the proposed model can be an effective support for a sustainable use and management of irrigation water, under conditions of water scarcity and drought. Since the evapotranspiration term represents a staple component in the water balance of a catchment, as outstanding future development, the model could also offer an advanced support for water resources management decisions at catchment scale.