The Red Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum: implications for sea level reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gildor, H.; Biton, E.; Peltier, W. R.

2006-12-01

The Red Sea (RS) is a semi-enclosed basin connected to the Indian Ocean via a narrow and shallow strait, and surrounded by arid areas which exhibits high sensitivity to atmospheric changes and sea level reduction. We have used the MIT GCM to investigate the changes in the hydrography and circulation in the RS in response to reduced sea level, variability in the Indian monsoons, and changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The model results show high sensitivity to sea level reduction especially in the salinity field (increasing with the reduction in sea level) together with a mild atmospheric impact. Sea level reduction decreases the stratification, increases subsurface temperatures, and alters the circulation pattern at the Strait of Bab el Mandab, which experiences a transition from submaximal flow to maximal flow. The reduction in sea level at LGM alters the location of deep water formation which shifts to an open sea convective site in the northern part of the RS compared to present day situation in which deep water is formed from the Gulf of Suez outflow. Our main result based on both the GCM and on a simple hydraulic control model which takes into account mixing process at the Strait of Bab El Mandeb, is that sea level was reduced by only ~100 m in the Bab El Mandeb region during the LGM, i.e. the water depth at the Hanish sill (the shallowest part in the Strait Bab el Mandab) was around 34 m. This result agrees with the recent reconstruction of the LGM low stand of the sea in this region based upon the ICE-5G (VM2) model of Peltier (2004).

Holocene relative sea-level change in Hiroshima Bay, Japan: A semi-quantitative reconstruction based on ostracodes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yasuhara, Moriaki; Seto, Koji

2006-01-01

Holocene relative sea-level changes in Hiroshima Bay were reconstructed from fossil ostracodes from a core, using a semi-quantitative method. In Hiroshima Bay, relative sea level rose rapidly (about 25 m) between ca. 9000 cal yr BP and ca. 5800 cal yr BP, after which it gradually fell (about 5 m) to its present level. The peak in relative sea level occurred at ca. 5800 cal yr BP. The sea-level curve for Hiroshima Bay is similar to curves for tectonically stable areas of Japan (e.g., Osaka Bay). ?? by the Palaeontological Society of Japan.

An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michaël; Zawadzki, Lionel; Zuo, Hao; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Scharffenberg, Martin G.; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Joana Fernandes, M.; Baltazar Andersen, Ole; Rudenko, Sergei; Cipollini, Paolo; Quartly, Graham D.; Passaro, Marcello; Cazenave, Anny; Benveniste, Jérôme

2018-02-01

Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change since it integrates the impacts of ocean warming and ice mass loss from glaciers and the ice sheets. Sea level has been listed as an essential climate variable (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). During the past 25 years, the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010-2013), an initial version (v1.1) of the sea level ECV was made available to users (Ablain et al., 2015). During the second phase of the project (2014-2017), improved altimeter standards were selected to produce new sea level products (called SL_cci v2.0) based on nine altimeter missions for the period 1993-2015 (https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612; Legeais and the ESA SL_cci team, 2016c). Corresponding orbit solutions, geophysical corrections and altimeter standards used in this v2.0 dataset are described in detail in Quartly et al. (2017). The present paper focuses on the description of the SL_cci v2.0 ECV and associated uncertainty and discusses how it has been validated. Various approaches have been used for the quality assessment such as internal validation, comparisons with sea level records from other groups and with in situ measurements, sea level budget closure analyses and comparisons with model outputs. Compared with the previous version of the sea level ECV, we show that use of improved geophysical corrections, careful bias reduction between missions and inclusion of new altimeter missions lead to improved sea level products with reduced uncertainties on different spatial and temporal scales. However, there is still room for improvement since the uncertainties remain larger than the GCOS requirements (GCOS, 2011). Perspectives on subsequent evolution are also discussed.

The Adriatic Sea: A Long-Standing Laboratory for Sea Level Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka; Pasarić, Mira; Orlić, Mirko

2017-10-01

The paper provides a comprehensive review of all aspects of Adriatic Sea level research covered by the literature. It discusses changes occurring over millennial timescales and documented by a variety of natural and man-made proxies and post-glacial rebound models; mean sea level changes occurring over centennial to annual timescales and measured by modern instruments; and daily and higher-frequency changes (with periods ranging from minutes to a day) that are contributing to sea level extremes and are relevant for present-day flooding of coastal areas. Special tribute is paid to the historic sea level studies that shaped modern sea level research in the Adriatic, followed by a discussion of existing in situ and remote sensing observing systems operating in the Adriatic area, operational forecasting systems for Adriatic storm surges, as well as warning systems for tsunamis and meteotsunamis. Projections and predictions of sea level and related hazards are also included in the review. Based on this review, open issues and research gaps in the Adriatic Sea level studies are identified, as well as the additional research efforts needed to fill the gaps. The Adriatic Sea, thus, remains a laboratory for coastal sea level studies for semi-enclosed, coastal and marginal seas in the world ocean.

Potentiometric Surface of the Lower Patapsco Aquifer in Southern Maryland, September 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Staley, Andrew W.

2009-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the lower Patapsco aquifer in the Patapsco Formation of Early Cretaceous age in Southern Maryland during September 2007. The map is based on water-level measurements in 65 wells. The highest measured water level was 111 feet above sea level near the northwestern boundary and outcrop area of the aquifer in northern Prince George's County. From this area, the potentiometric surface declined towards well fields at Severndale and Arnold. The measured ground-water levels were 87 feet below sea level at Severndale, and 42 feet below sea level at Arnold. There was also a cone of depression covering a large area in Charles County that includes Waldorf, La Plata, Indian Head, and the Morgantown power plant. The ground-water levels measured were as low as 219 feet below sea level at Waldorf, 187 feet below sea level at La Plata, 106 feet below sea level at Indian Head, and 89 feet below sea level at the Morgantown power plant.

A new Arctic 25-year Altimetric Sea-level Record (1992-2016) and Initial look at Arctic Sea Level Budget Closure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, O. B.; Passaro, M.; Benveniste, J.; Piccioni, G.

2016-12-01

A new initiative within the ESA Sea Level Climate Change initiative (SL-cci) framework to improve the Arctic sea level record has been initiated as a combined effort to reprocess and retrack past altimetry to create a 25-year combined sea level record for sea level research studies. One of the objectives is to retracked ERS-2 dataset for the high latitudes based on the ALES retracking algorithm through adapting the ALES retracker for retracking of specular surfaces (leads). Secondly a reprocessing using tailored editing to Arctic Conditions will be carried out also focusing on the merging of the multi-mission data. Finally an effort is to combine physical and empirical retracked sea surface height information to derive an experimental spatio-temporal enhanced sea level product for high latitude. The first results in analysing Arctic Sea level variations on annual inter-annual scales for the 1992-2015 from a preliminar version of this dataset is presented. By including the GRACE water storage estimates and NOAA halo- and thermo-steric sea level variatios since 2002 a preliminary attempt to close the Arctic Sea level budget is presented here. Closing the Arctic sea level budget is by no mean trivial as both steric data and satellite altimetry is both sparse temporally and limited geographically.

Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

2017-03-01

Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

Reconstruction of Local Sea Levels at South West Pacific Islands—A Multiple Linear Regression Approach (1988-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, V.; Melet, A.; Meyssignac, B.; Ganachaud, A.; Kessler, W. S.; Singh, A.; Aucan, J.

2018-02-01

Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years has been up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we aim at reconstructing sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka—Fiji, and Nouméa—New Caledonia) as a multilinear regression (MLR) of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on sea level variability at interannual-to-interdecadal time scales, and trend over the 1988-2014 period. Local sea levels are first expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes. Then a dynamical approach is used based on wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component, as wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. Statistically significant predictors among wind stress curl, halosteric sea level, zonal/meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature are used to construct a MLR model simulating local sea levels. Although we are focusing on the local scale, the global mean sea level needs to be adjusted for. Our reconstructions provide insights on key drivers of sea level variability at the selected sites, showing that while local dynamics and the global signal modulate sea level to a given extent, most of the variance is driven by regional factors. On average, the MLR model is able to reproduce 82% of the variance in island sea level, and could be used to derive local sea level projections via downscaling of climate models.

Quantitative analysis of Paratethys sea level change during the Messinian Salinity Crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de la Vara, Alba; Meijer, Paul; van Baak, Christiaan; Marzocchi, Alice; Grothe, Arjen

2016-04-01

At the time of the Messinian Salinity Crisis in the Mediterranean Sea (i.e., the Pontian stage of the Paratethys), the Paratethys sea level dropped also. Evidence found in the sedimentary record of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea has been interpreted to indicate that a sea level fall occurred between 5.6 and 5.5 Ma. Estimates for the magnitude of the fall range between tens of meters to more than 1500 m. The purpose of this study is to provide quantitative insight into the sensitivity of the water level of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea to the hydrologic budget, for the case that the Paratethys is disconnected from the Mediterranean. Using a Late Miocene bathymetry based on a palaeographic map by Popov et al. (2004) we quantify the fall in sea level, the mean salinity, and the time to reach equilibrium for a wide range of negative hydrologic budgets. By combining our results with (i) estimates derived from a recent global Late Miocene climate simulation and (ii) reconstructed basin salinities, we are able to rule out a drop in sea level of the order of 1000 m in the Caspian Sea during this time period. In the Black Sea, however, such a large sea level fall cannot be fully discarded.

Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys Coordination and Ocean Profiles

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Morison), UpTempO buoy measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level atmospheric pressure ( SLP ), and velocity (Steele), and dropsonde...dropsondes, micro-aircraft), cloud top/base heights UpTempO buoys for understanding and prediction…. Steele UpTempO buoy drops for SLP , SST, SSS...Air Expendable Current Profiler, SLP = Sea Level atmospheric Pressure, SST= Seas Surface Temperature, A/C= aircraft, SIC=Sea Ice Concentration We

Reconciliation of late Quaternary sea levels derived from coral terraces at Huon Peninsula with deep sea oxygen isotope records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chappell, John; Omura, Akio; Esat, Tezer; McCulloch, Malcolm; Pandolfi, John; Ota, Yoko; Pillans, Brad

1996-06-01

A major discrepancy between the Late Quaternary sea level changes derived from raised coral reef terraces at the Huon Peninsula in Papua New Guinea and from oxygen isotopes in deep sea cores is resolved. The two methods agree closely from 120 ka to 80 ka and from 20 ka to 0 ka (ka = 1000 yr before present), but between 70 and 30 ka the isotopic sea levels are 20-40 m lower than the Huon Peninsula sea levels derived in earlier studies. New, high precision U-series age measurements and revised stratigraphic data for Huon Peninsula terraces aged between 30 and 70 ka now give similar sea levels to those based on deep sea oxygen isotope data planktonic and benthic δ 18O data. Using the sea level and deep sea isotopic data, oxygen isotope ratios are calculated for the northern continental ice sheets through the last glacial cycle and are consistent with results from Greenland ice cores. The record of ice volume changes through the last glacial cycle now appears to be reasonably complete.

Coastal barrier stratigraphy for Holocene high-resolution sea-level reconstruction

PubMed Central

Costas, Susana; Ferreira, Óscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; Leorri, Eduardo

2016-01-01

The uncertainties surrounding present and future sea-level rise have revived the debate around sea-level changes through the deglaciation and mid- to late Holocene, from which arises a need for high-quality reconstructions of regional sea level. Here, we explore the stratigraphy of a sandy barrier to identify the best sea-level indicators and provide a new sea-level reconstruction for the central Portuguese coast over the past 6.5 ka. The selected indicators represent morphological features extracted from coastal barrier stratigraphy, beach berm and dune-beach contact. These features were mapped from high-resolution ground penetrating radar images of the subsurface and transformed into sea-level indicators through comparison with modern analogs and a chronology based on optically stimulated luminescence ages. Our reconstructions document a continuous but slow sea-level rise after 6.5 ka with an accumulated change in elevation of about 2 m. In the context of SW Europe, our results show good agreement with previous studies, including the Tagus isostatic model, with minor discrepancies that demand further improvement of regional models. This work reinforces the potential of barrier indicators to accurately reconstruct high-resolution mid- to late Holocene sea-level changes through simple approaches. PMID:27929122

Coastal barrier stratigraphy for Holocene high-resolution sea-level reconstruction.

PubMed

Costas, Susana; Ferreira, Óscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A; Leorri, Eduardo

2016-12-08

The uncertainties surrounding present and future sea-level rise have revived the debate around sea-level changes through the deglaciation and mid- to late Holocene, from which arises a need for high-quality reconstructions of regional sea level. Here, we explore the stratigraphy of a sandy barrier to identify the best sea-level indicators and provide a new sea-level reconstruction for the central Portuguese coast over the past 6.5 ka. The selected indicators represent morphological features extracted from coastal barrier stratigraphy, beach berm and dune-beach contact. These features were mapped from high-resolution ground penetrating radar images of the subsurface and transformed into sea-level indicators through comparison with modern analogs and a chronology based on optically stimulated luminescence ages. Our reconstructions document a continuous but slow sea-level rise after 6.5 ka with an accumulated change in elevation of about 2 m. In the context of SW Europe, our results show good agreement with previous studies, including the Tagus isostatic model, with minor discrepancies that demand further improvement of regional models. This work reinforces the potential of barrier indicators to accurately reconstruct high-resolution mid- to late Holocene sea-level changes through simple approaches.

Sea-level and deep-sea-temperature variability over the past 5.3 million years.

PubMed

Rohling, E J; Foster, G L; Grant, K M; Marino, G; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

2014-04-24

Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. Here we present a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. We find that deep-sea temperature and sea level generally decreased through time, but distinctly out of synchrony, which is remarkable given the importance of ice-albedo feedbacks on the radiative forcing of climate. In particular, we observe a large temporal offset during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. Last, we tentatively infer that ice sheets may have grown largest during glacials with more modest reductions in deep-sea temperature.

Potentiometric Surface of the Lower Patapsco Aquifer in Southern Maryland, September 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasin, David C.; Staley, Andrew W.

2010-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the lower Patapsco aquifer in the Patapsco Formation of Early Cretaceous age in Southern Maryland during September 2009. The map is based on water-level measurements in 64 wells. The highest measured water level was 110 feet above sea level near the northwestern boundary and outcrop area of the aquifer in northern Prince George's County. From this area, the potentiometric surface declined towards well fields at Severndale, Broad Creek, and Arnold. The measured groundwater levels were 99 feet below sea level at Severndale, 50 feet below sea level at Broad Creek, and 36 feet below sea level at Arnold. There was also a cone of depression in Charles County that includes Waldorf, La Plata, Indian Head, and the Morgantown power plant. The groundwater levels measured were as low as 215 feet below sea level at Waldorf, 149 feet below sea level at La Plata, 121 feet below sea level at Indian Head, and 96 feet below sea level at the Morgantown power plant. The map also shows well yield in gallons per day for 2008 at wells or well fields.

Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

2016-09-01

Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

Revisiting global mean sea level budget closure : Preliminary results from an integrative study within ESA's Climate Change Initiative -Sea level Budget Closure-Climate Change Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palanisamy, H.; Cazenave, A. A.

2017-12-01

The global mean sea level budget is revisited over two time periods: the entire altimetry era, 1993-2015 and the Argo/GRACE era, 2003-2015 using the version '0' of sea level components estimated by the SLBC-CCI teams. The SLBC-CCI is an European Space Agency's project on sea level budget closure using CCI products. Over the entire altimetry era, the sea level budget was performed as the sum of steric and mass components that include contributions from total land water storage, glaciers, ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and total water vapor content. Over the Argo/GRACE era, it was performed as the sum of steric and GRACE based ocean mass. Preliminary budget analysis performed over the altimetry era (1993-2015) results in a trend value of 2.83 mm/yr. On comparison with the observed altimetry-based global mean sea level trend over the same period (3.03 ± 0.5 mm/yr), we obtain a residual of 0.2 mm/yr. In spite of a residual of 0.2 mm/yr, the sea level budget result obtained over the altimetry era is very promising as this has been performed using the version '0' of the sea level components. Furthermore, uncertainties are not yet included in this study as uncertainty estimation for each sea level component is currently underway. Over the Argo/GRACE era (2003-2015), the trend estimated from the sum of steric and GRACE ocean mass amounts to 2.63 mm/yr while that observed by satellite altimetry is 3.37 mm/yr, thereby leaving a residual of 0.7 mm/yr. Here an ensemble GRACE ocean mass data (mean of various available GRACE ocean mass data) was used for the estimation. Using individual GRACE data results in a residual range of 0.5 mm/yr -1.1 mm/yr. Investigations are under way to determine the cause of the vast difference between the observed sea level and the sea level obtained from steric and GRACE ocean mass. One main suspect is the impact of GRACE data gaps on sea level budget analysis due to lack of GRACE data over several months since 2011. The current action plan of the project is to work on an accurate closure of the sea level budget using both the above performed methodologies. We also intend to provide a standardized uncertainty estimation and to correctly identify the causes leading to sea level budget non-closure if that is the case.

Constraining coastal change: A morpho-sedimentological concept to infer sea-level oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauz, Barbara; Shen, Zhixiong

2016-04-01

One of the responders to Milankovitch-scale climate changes is sea level which, in turn, is a driver of coastal change. In literature, the sedimentary sequences representing the coastal change are often linked to high sea-level stands, to intermediate sea-level positions or to regressive shorelines. We note apparent contradictions that indicate a lack of concept and inconsistent usage of sea level-related terms. To overcome this, we combine an integrated morpho-sedimentological concept for microtidal, mid-latitudinal coasts with chronologies based on Bayesian statistics. The concept regards the coastal sedimentary system as a depositional complex consisting of shallow-marine, aeolian and alluvial facies. These facies are in juxtaposition and respond simultaneously to external forcing. Bayesian statistics constrains the timing of the sequence based on optical or radiocarbon ages. Here, we present the site Hergla located on the North African coast of the central Mediterranean Sea as a case study to illustrate how the approach helps eliminating contradictions. The site has been cited frequently for confirming the hypothesis of a global two peak sea-level highstand during the last interglacial (MIS 5e). The ~2 km cliff exposure at Hergla was surveyed, mapped, logged and sampled for further describing the sediments and their depositional environment through thin section and Bayesian modelling of optical ages. Using our concept based on sequence stratigraphy tools, the section is interpreted as representing a coastal barrier with two bounding surfaces in the succession. Both surfaces mark the falling sea level of, first, MIS 5e and, second, MIS 5a and hence bound the falling stage system tract of a forced regression. Part of the deposits between the two surfaces are pulled up onto the shoulder of a small rising horst and the associated tectonic event coincided with the MIS 5a sea-level rise enhancing locally the accommodation space for a second foreshore environment. Our presentation will provide theoretical background of the concept and critically discuss the global dataset for last interglacial sea-level oscillations using both the stratigraphic record and age distributions.

A fractal analysis of quaternary, Cenozoic-Mesozoic, and Late Pennsylvanian sea level changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsui, Albert T.; Rust, Kelly A.; Klein, George D.

1993-01-01

Sea level changes are related to both climatic variations and tectonic movements. The fractal dimensions of several sea level curves were compared to a modern climatic fractal dimension of 1.26 established for annual precipitation records. A similar fractal dimension (1.22) based on delta(O-18/O-16) in deep-sea sediments has been suggested to characterize climatic change during the past 2 m.y. Our analysis indicates that sea level changes over the past 150,000 to 250,000 years also exhibit comparable fractal dimensions. Sea level changes for periods longer than about 30 m.y. are found to produce fractal dimensions closer to unity and Missourian (Late Pennsylvanian) sea level changes yield a fractal dimension of 1.41. The fact that these sea level curves all possess fractal dimensions less than 1.5 indicates that sea level changes exhibit nonperiodic, long-run persistence. The different fractal dimensions calculated for the various time periods could be the result of a characteristic overprinting of the sediment recored by prevailing processes during deposition. For example, during the Quaternary, glacio-eustatic sea level changes correlate well with the present climatic signature. During the Missourian, however, mechanisms such as plate reorganization may have dominated, resulting in a significantly different fractal dimension.

Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2016-01-01

Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

Sphingoid bases from sea cucumber induce apoptosis in human hepatoma HepG2 cells through p-AKT and DR5.

PubMed

Hossain, Zakir; Sugawara, Tatsuya; Hirata, Takashi

2013-03-01

Biofunctional marine compounds have recently received substantial attention for their nutraceutical characteristics. In this study, we investigated the apoptosis-inducing effects of sphingoid bases prepared from sea cucumber using human hepatoma HepG2 cells. Apoptotic effects were determined by cell viability assay, DNA fragmentation assay, caspase-3 and caspase-8 activities. The expression levels of apoptosis-inducing death receptor-5 (DR5) and p-AKT were assayed by western blot analysis, and mRNA expression of bax, GADD45 and PPARγ was assayed by quantitative RT-PCR analysis. Sphingoid bases from sea cucumber markedly reduced the cell viability of HepG2 cells. DNA fragmentation indicative of apoptosis was observed in a dose-dependent manner. The expression levels of the apoptosis inducer protein Bax were increased by the sphingoid bases from sea cucumber. GADD45, which plays an important role in apoptosis-inducing pathways, was markedly upregulated by sphingoid bases from sea cucumber. Upregulation of PPARγ mRNA was also observed during apoptosis induced by the sphingoid bases. The expression levels of DR5 and p-AKT proteins were increased and decreased, respectively, as a result of the effects of sphingoid bases from sea cucumber. The results indicate that sphingoid bases from sea cucumber induce apoptosis in HepG2 cells through upregulation of DR5, Bax, GADD45 and PPARγ and downregulation of p-AKT. Our results show for the first time the functional properties of marine sphingoid bases as inducers of apoptosis in HepG2 cells.

Intermittent sea-level acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivieri, M.; Spada, G.

2013-10-01

Using instrumental observations from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), we provide a new assessment of the global sea-level acceleration for the last ~ 2 centuries (1820-2010). Our results, obtained by a stack of tide gauge time series, confirm the existence of a global sea-level acceleration (GSLA) and, coherently with independent assessments so far, they point to a value close to 0.01 mm/yr2. However, differently from previous studies, we discuss how change points or abrupt inflections in individual sea-level time series have contributed to the GSLA. Our analysis, based on methods borrowed from econometrics, suggests the existence of two distinct driving mechanisms for the GSLA, both involving a minority of tide gauges globally. The first effectively implies a gradual increase in the rate of sea-level rise at individual tide gauges, while the second is manifest through a sequence of catastrophic variations of the sea-level trend. These occurred intermittently since the end of the 19th century and became more frequent during the last four decades.

GSOD Based Daily Global Mean Surface Temperature and Mean Sea Level Air Pressure (1982-2011)

DOE Data Explorer

Xuan Shi, Dali Wang

2014-05-05

This data product contains all the gridded data set at 1/4 degree resolution in ASCII format. Both mean temperature and mean sea level air pressure data are available. It also contains the GSOD data (1982-2011) from NOAA site, contains station number, location, temperature and pressures (sea level and station level). The data package also contains information related to the data processing methods

The effects of time-varying observation errors on semi-empirical sea-level projections

DOE PAGES

Ruckert, Kelsey L.; Guan, Yawen; Bakker, Alexander M. R.; ...

2016-11-30

Sea-level rise is a key driver of projected flooding risks. The design of strategies to manage these risks often hinges on projections that inform decision-makers about the surrounding uncertainties. Producing semi-empirical sea-level projections is difficult, for example, due to the complexity of the error structure of the observations, such as time-varying (heteroskedastic) observation errors and autocorrelation of the data-model residuals. This raises the question of how neglecting the error structure impacts hindcasts and projections. Here, we quantify this effect on sea-level projections and parameter distributions by using a simple semi-empirical sea-level model. Specifically, we compare three model-fitting methods: a frequentistmore » bootstrap as well as a Bayesian inversion with and without considering heteroskedastic residuals. All methods produce comparable hindcasts, but the parametric distributions and projections differ considerably based on methodological choices. In conclusion, our results show that the differences based on the methodological choices are enhanced in the upper tail projections. For example, the Bayesian inversion accounting for heteroskedasticity increases the sea-level anomaly with a 1% probability of being equaled or exceeded in the year 2050 by about 34% and about 40% in the year 2100 compared to a frequentist bootstrap. These results indicate that neglecting known properties of the observation errors and the data-model residuals can lead to low-biased sea-level projections.« less

The effects of time-varying observation errors on semi-empirical sea-level projections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruckert, Kelsey L.; Guan, Yawen; Bakker, Alexander M. R.

Sea-level rise is a key driver of projected flooding risks. The design of strategies to manage these risks often hinges on projections that inform decision-makers about the surrounding uncertainties. Producing semi-empirical sea-level projections is difficult, for example, due to the complexity of the error structure of the observations, such as time-varying (heteroskedastic) observation errors and autocorrelation of the data-model residuals. This raises the question of how neglecting the error structure impacts hindcasts and projections. Here, we quantify this effect on sea-level projections and parameter distributions by using a simple semi-empirical sea-level model. Specifically, we compare three model-fitting methods: a frequentistmore » bootstrap as well as a Bayesian inversion with and without considering heteroskedastic residuals. All methods produce comparable hindcasts, but the parametric distributions and projections differ considerably based on methodological choices. In conclusion, our results show that the differences based on the methodological choices are enhanced in the upper tail projections. For example, the Bayesian inversion accounting for heteroskedasticity increases the sea-level anomaly with a 1% probability of being equaled or exceeded in the year 2050 by about 34% and about 40% in the year 2100 compared to a frequentist bootstrap. These results indicate that neglecting known properties of the observation errors and the data-model residuals can lead to low-biased sea-level projections.« less

Daytime sea fog retrieval based on GOCI data: a case study over the Yellow Sea.

PubMed

Yuan, Yibo; Qiu, Zhongfeng; Sun, Deyong; Wang, Shengqiang; Yue, Xiaoyuan

2016-01-25

In this paper, a new daytime sea fog detection algorithm has been developed by using Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) data. Based on spectral analysis, differences in spectral characteristics were found over different underlying surfaces, which include land, sea, middle/high level clouds, stratus clouds and sea fog. Statistical analysis showed that the Rrc (412 nm) (Rayleigh Corrected Reflectance) of sea fog pixels is approximately 0.1-0.6. Similarly, various band combinations could be used to separate different surfaces. Therefore, three indices (SLDI, MCDI and BSI) were set to discern land/sea, middle/high level clouds and fog/stratus clouds, respectively, from which it was generally easy to extract fog pixels. The remote sensing algorithm was verified using coastal sounding data, which demonstrated that the algorithm had the ability to detect sea fog. The algorithm was then used to monitor an 8-hour sea fog event and the results were consistent with observational data from buoys data deployed near the Sheyang coast (121°E, 34°N). The goal of this study was to establish a daytime sea fog detection algorithm based on GOCI data, which shows promise for detecting fog separately from stratus.

An updated Holocene sea-level curve for the Delaware coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nikitina, D.L.; Pizzuto, J.E.; Schwimmer, R.A.; Ramsey, K.W.

2000-01-01

We present an updated Holocene sea-level curve for the Delaware coast based on new calibrations of 16 previously published radiocarbon dates (Kraft, 1976; Belknap and Kraft, 1977) and 22 new radiocarbon dates of basal peat deposits. A review of published and unpublished 137Cs and 210Pb analyses, and tide gauge data provide the basis for evaluating shorter-term (102 yr) sea-level trends. Paleosea-level elevations for the new basal peat samples were determined from the present vertical zonation of marsh plants relative to mean high water along the Delaware coast and the composition of plant fossils and foraminifera. Current trends in tidal range along the Delaware coast were used to reduce elevations from different locations to a common vertical datum of mean high water at Breakwater Harbor, Delaware. The updated curve is similar to Belknap and Kraft's [J. Sediment. Petrol., 47 (1977) 610-629] original sea-level curve from 12,000 to about 2000 yr BP. The updated curve documents a rate of sea-level rise of 0.9 mm/yr from 1250 yr BP to present (based on 11 dates), in good agreement with other recent sea-level curves from the northern and central U.S. Atlantic coast, while the previous curve documents rates of about 1.3 mm/yr (based on 4 dates). The precision of both estimates, however, is very low, so the significance of these differences is uncertain. A review of 210Pb and 137Cs analyses from salt marshes of Delaware indicates average marsh accretion rates of 3 mm/yr for the last 100 yr, in good agreement with shorter-term estimates of sea-level rise from tide gauge records. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

SeaWiFS technical report series. Volume 32: Level-3 SeaWiFS data products. Spatial and temporal binning algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hooker, Stanford B. (Editor); Firestone, Elaine R. (Editor); Acker, James G. (Editor); Campbell, Janet W.; Blaisdell, John M.; Darzi, Michael

1995-01-01

The level-3 data products from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) are statistical data sets derived from level-2 data. Each data set will be based on a fixed global grid of equal-area bins that are approximately 9 x 9 sq km. Statistics available for each bin include the sum and sum of squares of the natural logarithm of derived level-2 geophysical variables where sums are accumulated over a binning period. Operationally, products with binning periods of 1 day, 8 days, 1 month, and 1 year will be produced and archived. From these accumulated values and for each bin, estimates of the mean, standard deviation, median, and mode may be derived for each geophysical variable. This report contains two major parts: the first (Section 2) is intended as a users' guide for level-3 SeaWiFS data products. It contains an overview of level-0 to level-3 data processing, a discussion of important statistical considerations when using level-3 data, and details of how to use the level-3 data. The second part (Section 3) presents a comparative statistical study of several binning algorithms based on CZCS and moored fluorometer data. The operational binning algorithms were selected based on the results of this study.

Potentiometric Surface of the Patuxent Aquifer in Southern Maryland, September 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Staley, Andrew W.

2009-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the Patuxent aquifer in the Patuxent Formation of Early Cretaceous age in Southern Maryland during September 2007. The map is based on water-level measurements in 41 wells. The highest measured water level was 165 feet above sea level near the northwestern boundary and in the outcrop area of the aquifer in northern Prince George's County. From this area, the potentiometric surface declined south towards well fields at Glen Burnie, Bryans Road, the Morgantown power plant, and the Chalk Point power plant. The measured ground-water levels were 81 feet below sea level at Glen Burnie, 47 feet below sea level southwest of Bryans Road, 27 feet below sea level at the Morgantown power plant, and 24 feet below sea level at the Chalk Point power plant.

Potentiometric Surface of the Upper Patapsco Aquifer in Southern Maryland, September 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Staley, Andrew W.

2009-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the upper Patapsco aquifer in the Patapsco Formation of Early Cretaceous age in Southern Maryland during September 2007. The map is based on water-level measurements in 50 wells. The highest measured water level was 120 feet above sea level near the northern boundary and outcrop area of the aquifer in northern Anne Arundel County. From this area, the potentiometric surface declined to the south toward a well field in the Annapolis-Arnold area, and from all directions toward four cones of depression. These cones are located in the Waldorf-La Plata area, Chalk Point-Prince Frederick area, Swan Point subdivision in southern Charles County, and the Lexington Park-St. Inigoes area. The lowest measured ground-water level was 44 feet below sea level at Arnold, 106 feet below sea level south of Waldorf, 54 feet below sea level at Swan Point, 59 feet below sea level at Chalk Point, and 58 feet below sea level at Lexington Park.

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise that account for this acceleration are needed. One such method is an empirical relationship between air temperatures and global sea levels. The air temperature-sea level rise relationship was applied to the 12 climate change projections selected by the California Climate Action Team to estimate future sea levels. The 95% confidence level developed from the historical data was extrapolated to estimate the uncertainties in the future projections. To create sea level rise trend probability distributions, a lognormal probability distribution and a generalized extreme value probability distribution are used. Parameter estimations for these distributions are subjective and inevitably involve uncertainties, which will be improved as more research is conducted in this area.

Morphological response of the saltmarsh habitats of the Guadiana estuary due to flow regulation and sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampath, D. M. R.; Boski, T.

2016-12-01

In the context of rapid sea-level rise in the 21st century, the reduction of fluvial sediment supply due to the regulation of river discharge represents a major challenge for the management of estuarine ecosystems. Therefore, the present study aims to assess the cumulative impacts of the reduction of river discharge and projected sea-level rise on the morphological evolution of the Guadiana estuary during the 21st century. The assessment was based on a set of analytical solutions to simplified equations of tidal wave propagation in shallow waters and empirical knowledge of the system. As methods applied to estimate environmental flows do not take into consideration the fluvial discharge required to maintain saltmarsh habitats and the impact of sea-level rise, simulations were carried out for ten cases in terms of base river flow and sea-level rise so as to understand their sensitivity on the deepening of saltmarsh platforms. Results suggest saltmarsh habitats may not be affected severely in response to lower limit scenarios of sea-level rise and sedimentation. A similar behaviour can be expected even due to the upper limit scenarios until 2050, but with a significant submergence afterwards. In the case of the upper limit scenarios under scrutiny, there was a net erosion of sediment from the estuary. Multiplications of amplitudes of the base flow function by factors 1.5, 2, and 5 result in reduction of the estimated net eroded sediment volume by 25, 40, and 80%, respectively, with respect to the net eroded volume for observed river discharge. The results also indicate that defining the minimum environmental flow as a percentage of dry season flow (as done presently) should be updated to include the full spectrum of natural flows, incorporating temporal variability to better anticipate scenarios of sea-level rise during this century. As permanent submergence of intertidal habitats can be significant after 2050, due to the projected 79 cm rise of sea-level by the year 2100, a multi-dimensional approach should be adopted to mitigate the consequences of sea-level rise and strong flow regulations on the ecosystem of the Guadiana Estuary.

A Poor Relationship Between Sea Level and Deep-Water Sand Delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Ashley D.; Baumgardner, Sarah E.; Sun, Tao; Granjeon, Didier

2018-08-01

The most commonly cited control on delivery of sand to deep water is the rate of relative sea-level fall. The rapid rate of accommodation loss on the shelf causes sedimentation to shift basinward. Field and experimental numerical modeling studies have shown that deep-water sand delivery can occur during any stage of relative sea level position and across a large range of values of rate of relative sea-level change. However, these studies did not investigate the impact of sediment transport efficiency on the relationship between rate of relative sea-level change and deep-water sand delivery rate. We explore this relationship using a deterministic nonlinear diffusion-based numerical stratigraphic forward model. We vary across three orders of magnitude the diffusion coefficient value for marine settings, which controls sediment transport efficiency. We find that the rate of relative sea-level change can explain no more than 1% of the variability in deep-water sand delivery rates, regardless of sediment transport efficiency. Model results show a better correlation with relative sea level, with up to 55% of the variability in deep water sand delivery rates explained. The results presented here are consistent with studies of natural settings which suggest stochastic processes such as avulsion and slope failure, and interactions among such processes, may explain the remaining variance. Relative sea level is a better predictor of deep-water sand delivery than rate of relative sea-level change because it is the sea-level fall itself which promotes sand delivery, not the rate of the fall. We conclude that the poor relationship between sea level and sand delivery is not an artifact of the modeling parameters but is instead due to the inadequacy of relative sea level and the rate of relative sea-level change to fully describe the dimensional space in which depositional systems reside. Subsequently, sea level itself is unable to account for the interaction of multiple processes that contribute to sand delivery to deep water.

The sea-level fingerprints of ice-sheet collapse during interglacial periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, Carling; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Gomez, Natalya; Creveling, Jessica R.; Austermann, Jacqueline; E. Kopp, Robert

2014-03-01

Studies of sea level during previous interglacials provide insight into the stability of polar ice sheets in the face of global climate change. Commonly, these studies correct ancient sea-level highstands for the contaminating effect of isostatic adjustment associated with past ice age cycles, and interpret the residuals as being equivalent to the peak eustatic sea level associated with excess melting, relative to present day, of ancient polar ice sheets. However, the collapse of polar ice sheets produces a distinct geometry, or fingerprint, of sea-level change, which must be accounted for to accurately infer peak eustatic sea level from site-specific residual highstands. To explore this issue, we compute fingerprints associated with the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and marine sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in order to isolate regions that would have been subject to greater-than-eustatic sea-level change for all three cases. These fingerprints are more robust than those associated with modern melting events, when applied to infer eustatic sea level, because: (1) a significant collapse of polar ice sheets reduces the sensitivity of the computed fingerprints to uncertainties in the geometry of the melt regions; and (2) the sea-level signal associated with the collapse will dominate the signal from steric effects. We evaluate these fingerprints at a suite of sites where sea-level records from interglacial marine isotopes stages (MIS) 5e and 11 have been obtained. Using these results, we demonstrate that previously discrepant estimates of peak eustatic sea level during MIS5e based on sea-level markers in Australia and the Seychelles are brought into closer accord.

Combining urbanization and hydrodynamics data to evaluate sea level rise impacts on coastal water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, C. R.; Martin, J. B.

2016-02-01

Assessments of the potential for salt water intrusion due to sea level rise require consideration of both coastal hydrodynamic and human activity thresholds. In siliciclastic systems, sea level rise may cause salt intrusion to coastal aquifers at annual or decadal scales, whereas in karst systems salt intrudes at the tidal scalse. In both cases, human activity impacts the freshwater portion of the system by altering the water demand on the aquifer. We combine physicochemical and human activity data to evaluate impact of sea level rise on salt intrusion to siliclastic (Indian River Lagoon, Fl, USA) and karst (Puerto Morelos, Yucatan, Mexico) systems under different sea level rise rate scenarios. Two hydrodynamic modeling scenarios are considered; flux controlled and head controlled. Under a flux controlled system hydraulic head gradients remain constant during sea level rise while under a head controlled system hydraulic graidents diminish, allowing saltwater intrusion. Our model contains three key terms; aquifer recharge, groundwater discharge and hydraulic conductivity. Groundwater discharge and hydraulic conductivity were calculated based on high frequency (karst system) and decadal (siliciclastic system) field measurements. Aquifer recharge is defined as precipitation less evapotranspiration and water demand was evaluated based on urban planning data that provided the regional water demand. Water demand includes agricultural area, toursim, traffic patterns, garbage collection and total population. Water demand was initially estimated using a partial leaset squares regression based on these variables. Our model indicates that water demand depends most on agricultural area, which has changed significantly over the last 30 years. In both systems, additional water demand creates a head controlled scenario, thus increaseing the protential fo salt intrusion with projected sea level rise.

Global coastal flood hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilander, Dirk; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Haag, Arjen; Verlaan, Martin; Luo, Tianyi

2017-04-01

Over 10% of the world's population lives in low-lying coastal areas (up to 10m elevation). Many of these areas are prone to flooding from tropical storm surges or extra-tropical high sea levels in combination with high tides. A 1 in 100 year extreme sea level is estimated to expose 270 million people and 13 trillion USD worth of assets to flooding. Coastal flood risk is expected to increase due to drivers such as ground subsidence, intensification of tropical and extra-tropical storms, sea level rise and socio-economic development. For better understanding of the hazard and drivers to global coastal flood risk, a globally consistent analysis of coastal flooding is required. In this contribution we present a comprehensive global coastal flood hazard mapping study. Coastal flooding is estimated using a modular inundation routine, based on a vegetation corrected SRTM elevation model and forced by extreme sea levels. Per tile, either a simple GIS inundation routine or a hydrodynamic model can be selected. The GIS inundation method projects extreme sea levels to land, taking into account physical obstructions and dampening of the surge level land inwards. For coastlines with steep slopes or where local dynamics play a minor role in flood behavior, this fast GIS method can be applied. Extreme sea levels are derived from the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Future sea level projections are based on probabilistic sea level rise for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The approach is validated against observed flood extents from ground and satellite observations. The results will be made available through the online Aqueduct Global Flood Risk Analyzer of the World Resources Institute.

The role of atmospheric circulation patterns on short-term sea-level fluctuations along the eastern seaboard of the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Lee, C. C.; Pirhalla, D.; Ransi, V.

2017-12-01

Sea-level fluctuations over time are a product of short-term weather events, as well as long-term secular trends in sea-level rise. With sea-levl rise, these fluctuations increasingly have substantial impacts upon coastal ecosystems and impact society through coastal flooding events. In this research, we assess the impact of short-term events, combined with sea-level rise, through synoptic climatological analysis, exploring whether circulation pattern identification can be used to enhance probabilistic forecasts of flood likelihood. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were created for two discrete atmospheric variables: 700-hPa geopotential height (700z) and sea-level pressure (SLP). For each variable, a SOM array of patterns was created based on data spanning 25°-50°N and 60°-90°W for the period 1979-2014. Sea-level values were derived from tidal gauges between Cape May, New Jersey and Charleston, South Carolina, along the mid-Atlantic coast of the US. Both anomalous sea-level values, as well as nuisance flood occurrence (defined using the local gauge threshold), were assessed. Results show the impacts of both the inverted barometer effect as well as surface wind forcing on sea levels. With SLP, higher sea levels are associated with either patterns that were indicative of on-shore flow or cyclones. At 700z, ridges situated along the east coast are associated with higher sea levels. As the SOM matrix arranges atmospheric patterns in a continuum, the nodes of each SOM show a clear spatial pattern in terms of anomalous sea level, including some significant sea-level anomalies associated with relatively ambiguous pressure patterns. Further, multi-day transitions are also analyzed, showing rapidly deepening cyclones, or persistent onshore flow, can be associated with the greatest likelihood of nuisance floods. Results are weaker with 700z than SLP; however, in some cases, it is clear that the mid-tropospheric circulation can modulate the connection between sea-level anomalies and surface circulation.

Sea Level Station Metadata for Tsunami Detection, Warning and Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroker, K. J.; Marra, J.; Kari, U. S.; Weinstein, S. A.; Kong, L.

2007-12-01

The devastating earthquake and tsunami of December 26, 2004 has greatly increased recognition of the need for water level data both from the coasts and the deep-ocean. In 2006, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) completed a Tsunami Data Management Report describing the management of data required to minimize the impact of tsunamis in the United States. One of the major gaps defined in this report is the access to global coastal water level data. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) are working cooperatively to bridge this gap. NOAA relies on a network of global data, acquired and processed in real-time to support tsunami detection and warning, as well as high-quality global databases of archived data to support research and advanced scientific modeling. In 2005, parties interested in enhancing the access and use of sea level station data united under the NOAA NCDC's Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center's Pacific Region Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE) program to develop a distributed metadata system describing sea level stations (Kari et. al., 2006; Marra et.al., in press). This effort started with pilot activities in a regional framework and is targeted at tsunami detection and warning systems being developed by various agencies. It includes development of the components of a prototype sea level station metadata web service and accompanying Google Earth-based client application, which use an XML-based schema to expose, at a minimum, information in the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) station database needed to use the PTWC's Tide Tool application. As identified in the Tsunami Data Management Report, the need also exists for long-term retention of the sea level station data. NOAA envisions that the retrospective water level data and metadata will also be available through web services, using an XML-based schema. Five high-priority metadata requirements identified at a water level workshop held at the XXIV IUGG Meeting in Perugia will be addressed: consistent, validated, and well defined numbers (e.g. amplitude); exact location of sea level stations; a complete record of sea level data stored in the archive; identifying high-priority sea level stations; and consistent definitions. NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Center for Solid Earth Geophysics (including tsunamis) would hold the archive of the sea level station data and distribute the standard metadata. Currently, NGDC is also archiving and distributing the DART buoy deep-ocean water level data and metadata in standards based formats. Kari, Uday S., John J. Marra, Stuart A. Weinstein, 2006 A Tsunami Focused Data Sharing Framework For Integration of Databases that Describe Water Level Station Specifications. AGU Fall Meeting, 2006. San Francisco, California. Marra, John, J., Uday S. Kari, and Stuart A. Weinstein (in press). A Tsunami Detection and Warning-focused Sea Level Station Metadata Web Service. IUGG XXIV, July 2-13, 2007. Perugia, Italy.

Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter-model uncertainties for extreme sea-levels at large spatial scales and compare them to the uncertainties in mean sea level projections.

Potentiometric Surface of the Patuxent Aquifer in Southern Maryland, September 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Staley, Andrew W.

2010-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the Patuxent aquifer in the Patuxent Formation of Early Cretaceous age in Southern Maryland during September 2009. The map is based on water-level measurements in 42 wells. The highest measured water level was 169 feet above sea level in the outcrop area of the aquifer in northern Prince George's County. From this area, the potentiometric surface declined south towards well fields at Glen Burnie, Bryans Road, the Morgantown power plant, and the Chalk Point power plant. The measured groundwater levels were 78 feet below sea level at Glen Burnie, 56 feet below sea level at Bryans Road, 29 feet below sea level at the Morgantown power plant, and 28 feet below sea level at the Chalk Point power plant. The map also shows well yield in gallons per day for 2008 at wells or well fields.

Keep up or drown: adjustment of western Pacific coral reefs to sea-level rise in the 21st century

PubMed Central

van Woesik, R.; Golbuu, Y.; Roff, G.

2015-01-01

Since the Mid-Holocene, some 5000 years ago, coral reefs in the Pacific Ocean have been vertically constrained by sea level. Contemporary sea-level rise is releasing these constraints, providing accommodation space for vertical reef expansion. Here, we show that Porites microatolls, from reef-flat environments in Palau (western Pacific Ocean), are ‘keeping up’ with contemporary sea-level rise. Measurements of 570 reef-flat Porites microatolls at 10 locations around Palau revealed recent vertical skeletal extension (78±13 mm) over the last 6–8 years, which is consistent with the timing of the recent increase in sea level. We modelled whether microatoll growth rates will potentially ‘keep up’ with predicted sea-level rise in the near future, based upon average growth, and assuming a decline in growth for every 1°C increase in temperature. We then compared these estimated extension rates with rates of sea-level rise under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our model suggests that under low–mid RCP scenarios, reef-coral growth will keep up with sea-level rise, but if greenhouse gas concentrations exceed 670 ppm atmospheric CO2 levels and with +2.2°C sea-surface temperature by 2100 (RCP 6.0 W m−2), our predictions indicate that Porites microatolls will be unable to keep up with projected rates of sea-level rise in the twenty-first century. PMID:26587277

Coastal Vulnerability Due to Sea-level Rise Hazard in the Bangladesh Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shum, Ck; Ballu, Valérie; Calmant, Stéphane; Duan, Jianbin; Guo, Junyi; Hossain, Fasial; Jenkins, Craig; Haque Khan, Zahirul; Kim, Jinwoo; Kuhn, Michael; Kusche, Jürgen; Papa, Fabrice; Tseng, Kuohsin; Wan, Junkun

2014-05-01

Approximately half of the world's population or 3.2 billion people lives within 200 km of coastlines and many of them in the world's deltaic plains. Sea-level rise, widely recognized as one of consequences resulting from anthropogenic climate change, has induced substantial coastal vulnerability globally and in particular, in the deltaic regions, such as coastal Bangladesh, and Yangtze Delta. Bangladesh, a low-lying, one of the most densely populated countries in the world located at the Bay of Bengal, is prone to transboundary monsoonal flooding, potentially aggravated by more frequent and intensified cyclones resulting from anthropogenic climate change. Sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability. Here we describe the physical science component of the integrated approach based on both physical and social sciences to address the adaption and potential mitigation of coastal Bangladesh vulnerability. The objective is to quantify the estimates of spatial varying sea-level trend separating the vertical motion of the coastal regions using geodetic and remote-sensing measurements (tide gauges, 1950-current; satellite altimetry, 1992-present, GRACE, 2003-present, Landsat/MODIS), reconstructed sea-level trends (1950-current), and GPS and InSAR observed land subsidence. Our goal is to conduct physically based robust projection of relative sea-level change at the end of the 21st century for the Bangladesh Delta to enable quantitative measures of social science based adaption and possible mitigation.

Two Sea-Level Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvin, C.

2008-12-01

"No place on the sandy ocean shores of the world has been shown to be eroding because of sea level rise." This statement appeared nearly 19 years ago in bold print at the top of the page in a brief article published in Shore and Beach (Galvin,1990). The term "sea level rise" was defined in 1990 as follows: "In this statement, "sea level rise" has the meaning that the average person on the street usually attaches to that term. That is, sea level is rising; not, as in some places like the Mississippi River delta, land level is sinking." While still a subject of controversy, it is now (2008) increasingly plausible (Tornqvist et al,2008) that damage from Hurricane Katrina was significantly worse on the Mississippi River delta because floodwaters exploited wetlands and levees whose elevations had been lowered by decades of compaction in the underlying soil. (1) "Sea level" commonly appears in the literature as "relative sea level rise", occurring that way in 711 publications between 1980 and 2009 (GeoRef database on 8 Sep 08). "Relative sea level rise" does not appear in the 2005 AGI Glossary. The nearest Glossary term is "relative change in sea level", but that term occurs in only 12 publications between 1980 and 2009. The Glossary defines this term in a sequence stratigraphy sense, which infers that "relative sea level rise" is the sum of bottom subsidence and eustatic sea level rise. In plain English, "relative sea level rise" means "water depth increase". For present day coastal environments, "relative sea level rise" is commonly used where eustatic sea level rise is less than subsidence, that is, where the magnitude of actual sea level rise is smaller than the magnitude of subsidence. In that situation, "relative sea level rise" misleads both the average person and the scientist who is not a coastal geologist. Thus, the first challenge is to abandon "relative sea level rise" in favor of "water depth increase", in order that the words accurately descibe what happens. It would further clarify popular understanding if the term "actual sea level rise" were used in place of "eustatic sea level rise". (2)Geologists have approximated the the practice of paleontologists and biologists in establishing type examples of important geological features. This is a useful practice. A graduate geologist holds in mind clear conceptions of "beach cusps", "drumlin fields", "birdfoot deltas", and "igneous sills" based on seeing field examples accepted by professional geologists as representative of these features. However, although publications frequently report that sea level rise erodes a particular beach, no one identifies a type beach where that cause has been proven to produce the alleged effect. At the type beach, it is necessary to show that sea level is rising, and that the beach erodes primarily from this sea level rise, rather than from interrupted longshore transport. Thus, the second challenge is to identify a type ocean beach proven to erode because of sea level rise.

Revised paleoenvironmental analysis of the Holocene portion of the Barbados sea-level record: Cobbler's Reef revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toscano, Marguerite A.

2016-06-01

Sample elevations corrected for tectonic uplift and assessed relative to local modeled sea levels provide a new perspective on paleoenvironmental history at Cobbler's Reef, Barbados. Previously, 14C-dated surface samples of fragmented Acropora palmata plotted above paleo sea level based on their present (uplifted) elevations, suggesting supratidal rubble deposited during a period of extreme storms (4500-3000 cal BP), precipitating reef demise. At several sites, however, A. palmata persisted, existing until ~370 cal BP. Uplift-corrected A. palmata sample elevations lie below the western Atlantic sea-level curve, and ~2 m below ICE-6G-modeled paleo sea level, under slow rates of sea-level rise, negating the possibility that Cobbler's Reef is a supratidal storm ridge. Most sites show limited age ranges from corals likely damaged/killed on the reef crest, not the mixed ages of rubble ridges, strongly suggesting the reef framework died off in stages over 6500 yr. Reef crest death assemblages invoke multiple paleohistoric causes, from ubiquitous hurricanes to anthropogenic impacts. Comparison of death assemblage ages to dated regional paleotempestological sequences, proxy-based paleotemperatures, recorded hurricanes, tsunamis, European settlement, deforestation, and resulting turbidity, reveals many possible factors inimical to the survival of A. palmata along Cobbler's Reef.

Caspian sea-level changes during the last millennium: historical and geological evidence from the south Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H.; Mousavi Harami, R.; Arpe, K.; Leroy, S. A. G.; Marriner, N.; Berberian, M.; Andrieu-Ponel, V.; Djamali, M.; Mahboubi, A.; Reimer, P. J.

2013-07-01

Historical literature may constitute a valuable source of information to reconstruct sea-level changes. Here, historical documents and geological records have been combined to reconstruct Caspian sea-level (CSL) changes during the last millennium. In addition to a comprehensive literature review, new data from two short sediment cores were obtained from the south-eastern Caspian coast to identify coastal change driven by water-level changes and to compare the results with other geological and historical findings. The overall results indicate a high-stand during the Little Ice Age, up to -21 m (and extra rises due to manmade river avulsion), with a -28 m low-stand during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, while presently the CSL stands at -26.5 m. A comparison of the CSL curve with other lake systems and proxy records suggests that the main sea-level oscillations are essentially paced by solar irradiance. Although the major controller of the long-term CSL changes is driven by climatological factors, the seismicity of the basin creates local changes in base level. These local base-level changes should be considered in any CSL reconstruction.

Caspian Sea level changes during the last millennium: historical and geological evidences from the south Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H.; Mousavi Harami, R.; Arpe, K.; Leroy, S. A. G.; Marriner, N.; Berberian, M.; Andrieu-Ponel, V.; Djamali, M.; Mahboubi, A.

2013-03-01

Historical literature may constitute a valuable source of information to reconstruct sea level changes. Here, historical documents and geological records have been combined to reconstruct Caspian sea-level (CSL) changes during the last millennium. In addition to a literature survey, new data from two short sediment cores were obtained from the south-eastern Caspian coast to identify coastal change driven by water-level changes. Two articulated bivalve shells from the marine facies were radiocarbon dated and calibrated to establish a chronology and to compare them with historical findings. The overall results indicate a high-stand during the Little Ice Age, up to -19 m, with a -28 m low-stand during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, while presently the CSL stands at -26.5 m. A comparison of the CSL curve with other lake systems and proxy records suggests that the main sea-level oscillations are essentially paced by solar irradiance. Although the major controller of the long-term CSL changes is driven by climatological factors, the seismicity of the basin could create locally changes in base level. These local base-level changes should be considered in any CSL reconstruction.

Predicting location-specific extreme coastal floods in the future climate by introducing a probabilistic method to calculate maximum elevation of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of water level variations and wind waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leijala, Ulpu; Björkqvist, Jan-Victor; Johansson, Milla M.; Pellikka, Havu

2017-04-01

Future coastal management continuously strives for more location-exact and precise methods to investigate possible extreme sea level events and to face flooding hazards in the most appropriate way. Evaluating future flooding risks by understanding the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level variations and wind waves is one of the means to make more comprehensive flooding hazard analysis, and may at first seem like a straightforward task to solve. Nevertheless, challenges and limitations such as availability of time series of the sea level and wave height components, the quality of data, significant locational variability of coastal wave height, as well as assumptions to be made depending on the study location, make the task more complicated. In this study, we present a statistical method for combining location-specific probability distributions of water level variations (including local sea level observations and global mean sea level rise) and wave run-up (based on wave buoy measurements). The goal of our method is to obtain a more accurate way to account for the waves when making flooding hazard analysis on the coast compared to the approach of adding a separate fixed wave action height on top of sea level -based flood risk estimates. As a result of our new method, we gain maximum elevation heights with different return periods of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of both phenomena, "the green water". We also introduce a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the properties and functioning of our method. The sensitivity test is based on using theoretical wave distributions representing different alternatives of wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with the sea level distribution, we get information on how the different wave height conditions and shape of the wave height distribution influence the joint results. Our method presented here can be used as an advanced tool to minimize over- and underestimation of the combined effect of sea level variations and wind waves, and to help coastal infrastructure planning and support smooth and safe operation of coastal cities in a changing climate.

Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales.

PubMed

Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

2017-01-18

Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (<2 h) may substantially contribute to global sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales

PubMed Central

Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

2017-01-01

Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (<2 h) may substantially contribute to global sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates. PMID:28098195

Probabilistic Estimates of Global Mean Sea Level and its Underlying Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, C.; Morrow, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2015-12-01

Local sea level can vary significantly from the global mean value due to a suite of processes that includes ongoing sea-level changes due to the last ice age, land water storage, ocean circulation changes, and non-uniform sea-level changes that arise when modern-day land ice rapidly melts. Understanding these sources of spatial and temporal variability is critical to estimating past and present sea-level change and projecting future sea-level rise. Using two probabilistic techniques, a multi-model Kalman smoother and Gaussian process regression, we have reanalyzed 20th century tide gauge observations to produce a new estimate of global mean sea level (GMSL). Our methods allow us to extract global information from the sparse tide gauge field by taking advantage of the physics-based and model-derived geometry of the contributing processes. Both methods provide constraints on the sea-level contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The Kalman smoother tests multiple discrete models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), probabilistically computing the most likely GIA model given the observations, while the Gaussian process regression characterizes the prior covariance structure of a suite of GIA models and then uses this structure to estimate the posterior distribution of local rates of GIA-induced sea-level change. We present the two methodologies, the model-derived geometries of the underlying processes, and our new probabilistic estimates of GMSL and GIA.

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Contemporary Sea Level Rise: An Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spada, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) encompasses a suite of geophysical phenomena accompanying the waxing and waning of continental-scale ice sheets. These involve the solid Earth, the oceans and the cryosphere both on short (decade to century) and on long (millennia) timescales. In the framework of contemporary sea-level change, the role of GIA is particular. In fact, among the processes significantly contributing to contemporary sea-level change, GIA is the only one for which deformational, gravitational and rotational effects are simultaneously operating, and for which the rheology of the solid Earth is essential. Here, I review the basic elements of the GIA theory, emphasizing the connections with current sea-level changes observed by tide gauges and altimetry. This purpose is met discussing the nature of the "sea-level equation" (SLE), which represents the basis for modeling the sea-level variations of glacial isostatic origin, also giving access to a full set of geodetic variations associated with GIA. Here, the SLE is employed to characterize the remarkable geographical variability of the GIA-induced sea-level variations, which are often expressed in terms of "fingerprints". Using harmonic analysis, the spatial variability of the GIA fingerprints is compared to that of other components of contemporary sea-level change. In closing, some attention is devoted to the importance of the "GIA corrections" in the context of modern sea-level observations, based on tide gauges or satellite altimeters.

Base (100-year) flood elevations for selected sites in Marion County, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Southard, Rodney E.; Wilson, Gary L.

1998-01-01

The primary requirement for community participation in the National Flood Insurance Program is the adoption and enforcement of floodplain management requirements that minimize the potential for flood damages to new construction and avoid aggravating existing flooding conditions. This report provides base flood elevations (BFE) for a 100-year recurrence flood for use in the management and regulation of 14 flood-hazard areas designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency as approximate Zone A areas in Marion County, Missouri. The one-dimensional surface-water flow model, HEC-RAS, was used to compute the base (100-year) flood elevations for the 14 Zone A sites. The 14 sites were located at U.S., State, or County road crossings and the base flood elevation was determined at the upstream side of each crossing. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 1, 2, and 3 on the South Fork North River near Monroe City, Missouri, are 627.7, 579.2, and 545.9 feet above sea level. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 4, 5, 6, and 7 on the main stem of the North River near or at Philadelphia and Palmyra, Missouri, are 560.5, 539.7, 504.2, and 494.4 feet above sea level. BFE 8 is located on Big Branch near Philadelphia, a tributary to the North River, and the base (100-year) flood elevation at this site is 530.5 feet above sea level. One site (BFE 9) is located on the South River near Monroe City, Missouri. The base (100-year) flood elevation at this site is 619.1 feet above sea level. Site BFE 10 is located on Bear Creek near Hannibal, Missouri, and the base (100-year) elevation is 565.5 feet above sea level. The four remaining sites (BFE 11, 12, 13, and 14) are located on the South Fabius River near Philadelphia and Palmyra, Missouri. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 11, 12, 13, and 14 are 591.2, 578.4, 538.7, and 506.9 feet above sea level.

Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys Coordination

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-30

sea surface temperature (SST), sea level atmospheric pressure ( SLP ), and velocity (Steele), and dropsonde measurements of atmospheric properties...aircraft), cloud top/base heights UpTempO buoys for understanding and prediction…. Steele UpTempO buoy drops for SLP , SST, SSS, & surface velocity...reflectance, skin temperature, visible imagery AXCTD= Air Expendable CTD, AXCP= Air Expendable Current Profiler, SLP = Sea Level atmospheric

Paleo-environment Simulation using GIS based on Shell Mounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchiyama, T.; Asanuma, I.; Harada, E.

2016-02-01

Paleo-coastlines are simulated using the geographic information system (GIS) based on the shell mounds as the paleo-environment in the Tsubaki-no-umi, Ocean of Camellia in Japanese, the paleo-ocean, in Japan. The shell mounds, which are introduced in the paleo-study in the class history in junior and senior high, are used to estimate the paleo-coastlines. The paleo-coastlines are simulated as the function of sea levels relative to the current sea level for 6000 to 3000 BP on the digital elevation map of the GIS. The polygon of the simulated sea level height of 10 m extracted the shell mounds during 6000 to 5500 BP as the result of the spatial operation, and exhibited the consistency with the previous studies. The simulated sea level height of 5.5 m showed the paleo-coastline during 3600 to 3220 BP, while the Tsubaki-no-Umiturned into the brackish water lake, partly isolated from the ocean. The simulation of sea levels with GIS could be implemented to the class in the junior and senior high school with minimum efforts of teachers with the available computer and software environments.

An Ongoing Shift in Pacific Ocean Sea Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheon, S. H.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Merrifield, M. A.; Nerem, R. S.; Leben, R. R.; Kim, K. Y.

2016-12-01

According to the satellite altimeter data, local sea level trends have shown considerable diversity spatially as well as temporally. In particular, dramatic changes in sea level in the Pacific have been observed throughout the altimeter record, with high trends in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and comparatively lower trends in the eastern Pacific. In recent years, however, a shift appears to be occurring, with falling trends in the (WTP) and rising trends in the eastern tropical and northeastern Pacific (ETP and NEP). From a planning perspective, it is important to figure out whether these sharp changes are part of a short-term shift or the beginning of a longer-term change in sea level. In this study, we distinguish the origins of the recent shift in Pacific Ocean sea level. Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis is applied to separate the properties of the recent sea level change in the Pacific Ocean. From the CSEOF analysis results, we point out two dominant modes of sea level shift in the Pacific Ocean. The first mode is related to the biennial oscillation associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the other is related to lower-frequency variability with a strong signal in the northern Pacific. Considering a relatively high correlation between recent sea level change and the low-frequency mode, we suggest that the low-frequency mode has played a dominant role in the sea level shift in the Pacific Ocean. Using a reconstructed sea level dataset, we examine the variability of this low-frequency mode in the past, and find similar periods of dramatic sea level change in the Pacific. Based on the sea level record of the last five years and according to the analysis, we conclude that in the coming decades, higher sea level trends off the U.S. West Coast should be expected, while reduced trends in the WTP will likely be observed.

Effects of sediment transport and deposition on crustal loading, Earth's gravitational field, and sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrier, K.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Perron, T.; Milne, G. A.; Wickert, A. D.

2012-12-01

Spatial patterns in static sea level are controlled by the interplay between the history of ice mass variations and the associated deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations in the Earth's state. Over the last decade, there has been a renewed effort to extend classic treatments of ice-age sea-level change (Farrell and Clark, 1976) to incorporate effects such as shoreline migration due to the local onlap or offlap of seawater and changes in the extent of grounded, marine-based ice, as well as feedbacks between sea level and the orientation of Earth's rotation axis. To date, the impact of sediment transport - whether in the context of glacial processes, or other processes such as fluvial deposition - has not been incorporated into a gravitationally self-consistent sea-level theory. Here we briefly summarize the main elements of a new sea-level theory that includes sediment transport, and we apply this new theory to investigate crustal deformation and sea-level changes driven by sediment deposition on the Mississippi fan in the Gulf of Mexico. The calculations incorporate sediment transport from the start of the last glacial cycle through to the present and are constrained to conserve sediment and ocean mass. We compare relative sea level histories predicted with and without sediment transport at sites in and around the Gulf of Mexico, and we quantify the relative impacts of gravitational and deformational effects of sediment deposition. We also explore the extent to which sea-level changes associated with sediment transport impact the interpretation of paleo-sea-level records. Our new sea-level formulation provides an important component of a comprehensive coupling between sediment transfer and sea level on local, regional and global spatial scales, and on time scales extending from decades to tens of thousands of years. References: Farrell, W.E., and Clark, J.A., 1976. On postglacial sea level: Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, v. 46, p. 647-667.

Dtection of Sea Level Rise within the Arabian Gulf Using Space Based GNSS Measurements and Insitu Tide Gauge data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alothman, Abdulaziz; Ayhan, Mehmet

In the 21st century, sea level rise is expected to be about 30 cm or even more (up to 60 cm). Saudi Arabia has very long coasts of about 3400 km and hundreds of islands. Therefore, sea level monitoring may be important in particular along coastal low lands on Red Sea and Arabian Gulf coasts. Arabian Gulf is connected to Indian Ocean and lying along a parallel course in the south-west of the Zagros Trust Belt. We expect vertical land motion within the area due to both tectonic structures of the Arabian Peninsula and oil production activities. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Continues observations were used to estimate the vertical crustal motion. Bahrain International GPS Service (IGS-GPS) station is the only continuous GPS station accessible in the region, and it is close to the Mina Sulman tide gauge station in Bahrain. The weekly GPS time series of vertical component at Bahrain IGS-GPS station referring to the ITRF97 from 1999.2 to 2008.6 are used in the computation. We fitted a linear trend with an annual signal and a break to the GPS vertical time series and found a vertical land motion rate of 0.46 0.11 mm/yr. To investigate sea level variation within the west of Arabian Gulf, monthly means of sea level at 13 tide gauges along the coast of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, available in the database of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), are studied. We analyzed separately the monthly mean sea level measurements at each station, and estimated secular sea level rate by a robust linear trend fitting. We computed the average relative sea level rise rate of 1.96 0.21 mm/yr within the west of Arabian Gulf based on 4 stations spanning longer than 19 years. Sea level rates at the stations are first corrected for vertical land motion contamination using the ICE-5G v1.2 VM4 Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model, and the average sea level rate is found 2.27 0.21 mm/yr. Assuming the vertical rate at Bahrain IGS-GPS station represents the vertical rate at each of the other tide gauge stations studied here in the region, we computed average sea level rise rate of 2.42 0.21 mm/yr within the west of Arabian Gulf.

Clusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hummel, Michelle; Wood, Nathan J.; Schweikert, Amy; Stacey, Mark T.; Jones, Jeanne; Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.

2018-01-01

Sea level is projected to rise over the coming decades, further increasing the extent of flooding hazards in coastal communities. Efforts to address potential impacts from climate-driven coastal hazards have called for collaboration among communities to strengthen the application of best practices. However, communities currently lack practical tools for identifying potential partner communities based on similar hazard exposure characteristics. This study uses statistical cluster analysis to identify similarities in community exposure to flooding hazards for a suite of sea level rise and storm scenarios. We demonstrate this approach using 63 jurisdictions in the San Francisco Bay region of California (USA) and compare 21 distinct exposure variables related to residents, employees, and structures for six hazard scenario combinations of sea level rise and storms. Results indicate that cluster analysis can provide an effective mechanism for identifying community groupings. Cluster compositions changed based on the selected societal variables and sea level rise scenarios, suggesting that a community could participate in multiple networks to target specific issues or policy interventions. The proposed clustering approach can serve as a data-driven foundation to help communities identify other communities with similar adaptation challenges and to enhance regional efforts that aim to facilitate adaptation planning and investment prioritization.

The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

2014-06-01

Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to local departures from the global mean sea level change, through a number of mechanisms including the effect on spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, usually termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the component of dynamic sea level change that might be given by additional freshwater inflow to the ocean under scenarios of 21st-century land-based ice melt. We present regional patterns of dynamic sea level change given by a global-coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model forced by spatially and temporally varying projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century. The temporal evolution of the dynamic sea level changes, in the presence of considerable variations in the ice melt flux, is also analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes occurring in the North Atlantic amounting to 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed CO2 or under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas warming scenario of increasing CO2.

Reply to comment by E. Bard et al. on "Younger Dryas sea level and meltwater pulse 1B recorded in Barbados reef crest coral Acropora palmata" by N. A. Abdul et al.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortlock, Richard A.; Abdul, Nicole A.; Wright, James D.; Fairbanks, Richard G.

2016-12-01

Abdul et al. (2016) presented a detailed record of sea level at Barbados (13.9-9 kyr B.P.) tightly constraining the timing and amplitude during the Younger Dryas and Meltwater Pulse 1B (MWP-1B) based on U-Th dated reef crest coral species Acropora palmata. The Younger Dryas slow stand and the large (14 m) rapid sea level jump are not resolved in the Tahiti record. Tahiti sea level estimates are remarkably close to the Barbados sea level curve between 13.9 and 11.6 kyr but fall below the Barbados sea level curve for a few thousand years following MWP-1B. By 9 kyr the Tahiti sea level estimates again converge with the Barbados sea level curve. Abdul et al. (2016) concluded that Tahiti reefs at the core sites did not keep up with intervals of rapidly rising sea level during MWP-1B. We counter Bard et al. (2016) by showing (1) that there is no evidence for a hypothetical fault in Oistins Bay affecting one of the Barbados coring locations, (2) that the authors confuse the rare occurrences of A. palmata at depths >5 m with the "thickets" of A. palmata fronds representing the reef-crest facies, and (3) that uncertainties in depth habitat proxies largely account for differences in Barbados and Tahiti sea level differences curves with A. palmata providing the most faithful proxy. Given the range in Tahiti paleodepth uncertainties at the cored sites, the most parsimonious explanation remains that Tahiti coralgal ridges did not keep up with the sea level rise of MWP-1B.

Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

2018-03-01

Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

Detection of a dynamic topography signal in last interglacial sea-level records

PubMed Central

Austermann, Jacqueline; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Huybers, Peter; Rovere, Alessio

2017-01-01

Estimating minimum ice volume during the last interglacial based on local sea-level indicators requires that these indicators are corrected for processes that alter local sea level relative to the global average. Although glacial isostatic adjustment is generally accounted for, global scale dynamic changes in topography driven by convective mantle flow are generally not considered. We use numerical models of mantle flow to quantify vertical deflections caused by dynamic topography and compare predictions at passive margins to a globally distributed set of last interglacial sea-level markers. The deflections predicted as a result of dynamic topography are significantly correlated with marker elevations (>95% probability) and are consistent with construction and preservation attributes across marker types. We conclude that a dynamic topography signal is present in the elevation of last interglacial sea-level records and that the signal must be accounted for in any effort to determine peak global mean sea level during the last interglacial to within an accuracy of several meters. PMID:28695210

A heuristic evaluation of long-term global sea level acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spada, Giorgio; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia

2015-05-01

In view of the scientific and social implications, the global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) and its possible causes and future trend have been a challenge for so long. For the twentieth century, reconstructions generally indicate a rate of GMSLR in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 mm yr-1. However, the existence of nonlinear trends is still debated, and current estimates of the secular acceleration are subject to ample uncertainties. Here we use various GMSLR estimates published on scholarly journals since the 1940s for a heuristic assessment of global sea level acceleration. The approach, alternative to sea level reconstructions, is based on simple statistical methods and exploits the principles of meta-analysis. Our results point to a global sea level acceleration of 0.54 ± 0.27 mm/yr/century (1σ) between 1898 and 1975. This supports independent estimates and suggests that a sea level acceleration since the early 1900s is more likely than currently believed.

Indicators' role: How do they influence Strategic Environmental Assessment and Sustainable Planning - The Chinese experience.

PubMed

Gao, Jingjing; Christensen, Per; Kørnøv, Lone

2017-08-15

As an information carrier and communication medium, indicators provide useful decision-making assistance in setting process goals and effectively reaching the goals. The main focus of this article is to investigate indicators' role in influencing planning through Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) especially related to Chinese experiences. From the perspective of planning and decision-making theory, the influence on planning is studied as influence of planning structure and influence of planning actors. Such a conceptual framework is applied in order to demonstrate how the use of indicators can influence planning through a SEA process. The study holds two empirical levels. On a general level, based on an online survey, this article investigates SEA practitioners' experiences in using indicators. On a case level, two urban plans are selected to provide more detailed experiences. The case level investigation is based on a documentary study and individual interviews with SEA practitioners/planners. By exploring how indicators influence planning through the structure of and the actors within SEA, this study tries to provide an overview of indicators' role in SEA. The results indicate that indicators are perceived as a useful tool in the Chinese SEA system. By improving and simplifying the procedures of SEA, the indicators exert more structural influence on SEA and on plan making. On the other hand, indicators are also shown to have more influence through political actors than found among technical actors. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

2017-08-01

The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

Global Sea Level Rise and its Impact Estimation Model by Beach Mechanics, GDP, and Shoreline Length using Big Data Approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, A. A.

2016-12-01

Existing research has shown consistent increase in global sea levels due to warming of the climate; since 1870, average global sea level has risen by about 20 cm. There are processes that scientists and coastal engineers can follow to estimate the erosion and flooding risk impacts for specific locations based on historical data. However, there are no methods available to assess the risk impacts for locations where little research has been conducted. In this study, we introduce a prototype to better predict sea level change and land loss using big data technology. Our approach combines cluster analysis and artificial intelligence to classify and calculate impacts for locations worldwide. Data from 235 locations (89 countries) on sea level change was gathered from NOAA data investigations and other research organizations, including beach profile data, shoreline length data, and GDP data. The rate of sea level rise varies from -18 to 21 mm/yr. We divide the data into 4 groups (Group A: +0 to 9mm, Group B: +10 to +20mm, Group C: -0 to -9mm, and Group D:-10 to -20mm). Our research focuses on types A and B only since both reflect increase on sea level rise. We find the correlation between the sea level rise and factors such as the economic parameter (α), sea level rise height (h), beach breaker wave (Hb), gravitational constant (g), period of wave (T), foreshore slope (i), and sand sizes (D). We conclude the sea level rise impact ($ lost) can be more scientifically and precisely predicted using our model.

A 6,700 years sea-level record based on French Polynesian coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Botella, Albéric; Milne, Glenn; Fietzke, Jan; Dussouillez, Philippe

2015-04-01

Sea-level change during the Mid- to Late Holocene has a similar amplitude to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the 21st century providing a unique opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change and to reveal an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed using coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. Absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements is crucial for an accurate reconstruction of sea-level change. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level. Growth pattern analysis allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Method for Assessing Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Navigation Gate Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Friedman, D.

2015-12-01

Coastal navigation infrastructure may be highly vulnerable to changing climate, including increasing sea levels and altered frequency and intensity of coastal storms. Future gate operations impacted by global sea level rise will pose unique challenges, especially for structures 50 years and older. Our approach is to estimate future changes in gate operational frequency based on a bootstrapping method to forecast future water levels. A case study will be presented to determine future changes in frequency of operations over the next 100 years. A statistical model in the R programming language was developed to apply future sea level rise projections using the three sea level rise scenarios prescribed by USACE Engineer Regulation ER 1100-2-8162. Information derived from the case study will help forecast changes in operational costs caused by increased gate operations and inform timing of decisions on adaptation measures.

The Influence of the Terrestrial Reference Frame on Studies of Sea Level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nerem, R. S.; Bar-Sever, Y. E.; Haines, B. J.; Desai, S.; Heflin, M. B.

2015-12-01

The terrestrial reference frame (TRF) provides the foundation for the accurate monitoring of sea level using both ground-based (tide gauges) and space-based (satellite altimetry) techniques. For the latter, tide gauges are also used to monitor drifts in the satellite instruments over time. The accuracy of the terrestrial reference frame (TRF) is thus a critical component for both types of sea level measurements. The TRF is central to the formation of geocentric sea-surface height (SSH) measurements from satellite altimeter data. The computed satellite orbits are linked to a particular TRF via the assumed locations of the ground-based tracking systems. The manner in which TRF errors are expressed in the orbit solution (and thus SSH) is not straightforward, and depends on the models of the forces underlying the satellite's motion. We discuss this relationship, and provide examples of the systematic TRF-induced errors in the altimeter derived sea-level record. The TRF is also crucial to the interpretation of tide-gauge measurements, as it enables the separation of vertical land motion from volumetric changes in the water level. TRF errors affect tide gauge measurements through GNSS estimates of the vertical land motion at each tide gauge. This talk will discuss the current accuracy of the TRF and how errors in the TRF impact both satellite altimeter and tide gauge sea level measurements. We will also discuss simulations of how the proposed Geodetic Reference Antenna in SPace (GRASP) satellite mission could reduce these errors and revolutionize how reference frames are computed in general.

Ice sheet systems and sea level change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rignot, E. J.

2015-12-01

Modern views of ice sheets provided by satellites, airborne surveys, in situ data and paleoclimate records while transformative of glaciology have not fundamentally changed concerns about ice sheet stability and collapse that emerged in the 1970's. Motivated by the desire to learn more about ice sheets using new technologies, we stumbled on an unexplored field of science and witnessed surprising changes before realizing that most were coming too fast, soon and large. Ice sheets are integrant part of the Earth system; they interact vigorously with the atmosphere and the oceans, yet most of this interaction is not part of current global climate models. Since we have never witnessed the collapse of a marine ice sheet, observations and exploration remain critical sentinels. At present, these observations suggest that Antarctica and Greenland have been launched into a path of multi-meter sea level rise caused by rapid climate warming. While the current loss of ice sheet mass to the ocean remains a trickle, every mm of sea level change will take centuries of climate reversal to get back, several major marine-terminating sectors have been pushed out of equilibrium, and ice shelves are irremediably being lost. As glaciers retreat from their salty, warm, oceanic margins, they will melt away and retreat slower, but concerns remain about sea level change from vastly marine-based sectors: 2-m sea level equivalent in Greenland and 23-m in Antarctica. Significant changes affect 2/4 marine-based sectors in Greenland - Jakobshavn Isb. and the northeast stream - with Petermann Gl. not far behind. Major changes have affected the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica since the 1980s. Smaller yet significant changes affect the marine-based Wilkes Land sector of East Antarctica, a reminder that not all marine-based ice is in West Antarctica. Major advances in reducing uncertainties in sea level projections will require massive, interdisciplinary efforts that are not currently in place but are getting there. Projection scenarios are overwhelmingly conservative, pushed up by observations, awaiting more detailed knowledge of ocean circulation, winds, ice-ocean interaction, and mechanics of rapid ice fracture, not to mention the mere definition of static boundaries (ice thickness and sea floor bathymetry).

Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellikka, Havu; Leijala, Ulpu; Johansson, Milla M.; Leinonen, Katri; Kahma, Kimmo K.

2018-04-01

Coastal planning requires detailed knowledge of future flooding risks, and effective planning must consider both short-term sea level variations and the long-term trend. We calculate distributions that combine short- and long-term effects to provide estimates of flood probabilities in 2050 and 2100 on the Finnish coast in the Baltic Sea. Our distributions of short-term sea level variations are based on 46 years (1971-2016) of observations from the 13 Finnish tide gauges. The long-term scenarios of mean sea level combine postglacial land uplift, regionally adjusted scenarios of global sea level rise, and the effect of changes in the wind climate. The results predict that flooding risks will clearly increase by 2100 in the Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Sea, while only a small increase or no change compared to present-day conditions is expected in the Bothnian Bay, where the land uplift is stronger.

Estimation of sea level variations with GPS/GLONASS-reflectometry technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padokhin, A. M.; Kurbatov, G. A.; Andreeva, E. S.; Nesterov, I. A.; Nazarenko, M. O.; Berbeneva, N. A.; Karlysheva, A. V.

2017-11-01

In the present paper we study GNSS - reflectometry methods for estimation of sea level variations using a single GNSSreceiver, which are based on the multipath propagation effects caused by the reflection of navigational signals from the sea surface. Such multipath propagation results in the appearance of the interference pattern in the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) of GNSS signals at small satellite elevation angles, which parameters are determined by the wavelength of the navigational signal and height of the antenna phase center above the reflecting sea surface. In current work we used GPS and GLONASS signals and measurements at two working frequencies of both systems to study sea level variations which almost doubles the amount of observations compared to GPS-only tide gauge. For UNAVCO sc02 station and collocated Friday Harbor NOAA tide gauge we show good agreement between GNSS-reflectometry and traditional mareograph sea level data.

Sea Level Rise in the 21st Century: Will projections ever become reliable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, J. K.

2014-12-01

Global sea level rise has the potential to become one of the most costly and least well predicted impacts of human caused climate change. Unlike global surface temperature, the spread of possible scenarios (as little as 1 foot and as much as 6 feet by 2100) is not due to uncertainty about future rates of greenhouse gas emissions, but rather by a fundamental lack of knowledge about how the major ice sheets will behave in a warming climate. Clearly improved projections of sea level rise should become a major research priority in the next decade. At present, controversial techniques based on comparison with historical analogs and rates of recent warming and sea level rise are often used to create projections for the 21st Century. However, many in the scientific community feel that reliable projections must be based on a sound knowledge of the physics governing sea level rise, and particularly ice sheet behavior. In particular, large portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet rest on solid earth that sits below sea level. These regions may be threatened, not by atmospheric warming or changes in precipitation, but rather by direct forcing from the ocean. Fledgling efforts to understand these ocean ice interactions are already underway, as are efforts to make improved models of ice sheet behavior. However a great deal of work is still needed before widely accepted projections of sea level rise become a reality. This paper will highlight the hurdles to making such projections today and suggest ways forward in this critical area of research.

Contemporary sea level rise.

PubMed

Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

2010-01-01

Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

Sea level variations during rapid changing Arctic Ocean from tide gauge and satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Ling; Xu, Daohuan

2016-04-01

Sea level variations can introduce the useful information under the circumstance of the rapid changing Arctic. Based on tide gauge records and the satellite altimetry data in the Arctic Ocean, the sea level variations in the 20th century are analyzed with the stochastic dynamic method. The average secular trend of the sea level record is about 1 mm/yr, which is smaller than the global mean cited by the IPCC climate assessment report. The secular trend in the coastal region differs from that in the deep water. After the mid-1970s, a weak acceleration of sea level rise is found along the coasts of the Siberian and Aleutian Islands. Analysis of synchronous TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry data indicates that the amplitude of the seasonal variation is less than that of the inter-annual variation, whose periods vary from 4.7 to 6 years. This relationship is different from that in the mid-latitudes. The climate indices are the pre-cursors of the sea level variations on multi-temporal scales. The model results show that while steric effects contribute significantly to the seasonal variation, the influence of atmospheric wind forcing is an important factor of sea level during ice free region.

Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

2018-03-01

Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the observed orbit-related errors are further investigated. The main contributors on all timescales are uncertainties in Earth's time-variable gravity field models and on annual to interannual timescales discrepancies of the tracking station subnetworks, i.e. satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS).

An updated 26-year (1991-2017) sea level record from the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kildegaard Rose, Stine; Baltazar Andersen, Ole; Passaro, Marcello; Benveniste, Jerome

2017-04-01

In recent years, there has been a large focus of the Arctic due the rapid changes of the region. The sea level of the Arctic Ocean is an important climate indicator. The Arctic sea ice is decreasing and has since 1997 experienced a steepening in the decrease. The Arctic sea level determination is challenging due to the seasonal to permanent sea ice cover, the lack of regional coverage of satellites, the satellite instruments ability to measure ice, insufficient geophysical models, residual orbit errors, challenging retracking of satellite altimeter data. We present the DTU/TUM 26-year sea level record based on satellite altimetry data in the Arctic Ocean from the ERS1 (1991) to CryoSat-2 (present) satellites. The sea level record is compared with several tide gauges and other available partial sea level records contributing to the ESA CCI Sea level initiative. We use updated geophysical corrections and a combination of altimeter data: REAPER (ERS1), ALES+ retracker (ERS2, Envisat), combined Rads and DTUs in-house retracker LARS (CryoSat-2). The ALES+ is an upgraded version of the Adaptive Leading Edge Subwaveform Retracker that has been developed to improve data quality and quantity in the coastal ocean, without degrading the results in the open ocean. ALES+ aims at retracking peaky waveforms typical of lead reflections without modifying the fitting model used in the open ocean.

Potentiometric surface of the Upper Patapsco aquifer in southern Maryland, September 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Staley, Andrew W.

2010-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the upper Patapsco aquifer in the Patapsco Formation of Early Cretaceous age in Southern Maryland during September 2009. The map is based on water-level measurements in 65 wells. The highest measured water level was 118 feet above sea level near the northern boundary and outcrop area of the aquifer in northern Anne Arundel County. From this area, the potentiometric surface declined to the south toward a well field in the Annapolis-Arnold area, and from all directions toward three additional cones of depression. These cones are located in the Waldorf-La Plata area, Chalk Point, and the Leonardtown-Lexington Park area. The lowest measured groundwater levels were 26 feet below sea level at Annapolis, 108 feet below sea level south of Waldorf, 60 feet below sea level at Chalk Point, and 83 feet below sea level at Leonardtown. The map also shows well yield in gallons per day for 2008 at wells or well fields.

Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene sea-level change from coral microatolls, French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Botella, Alberic; Milne, Glenn; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Pothin, Virginie; Dussouillez, Philippe; Fleury, Jules; Fietzke, Jan

2017-04-01

Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the industrial revolution. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A step-like sea-level rise is evidenced between 6 and 3.9 ka leading to a short sea-level highstand of about a meter in amplitude between 3.9 and 3.6 ka. A sea-level fall, at an average rate of 0.3 mm.yr-1, is recorded between 3.6 and 1.2 ka when sea level approached its present position. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

A New Method for Reconstructing Sea-Level and Deep-Sea-Temperature Variability over the Past 5.3 Million Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohling, E. J.

2014-12-01

Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (d18O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. We have recently presented a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. A serious of caveats applies to this new method, especially in older times of its application, as is always the case with new methods. Independent validation exercises are needed to elucidate where consistency exists, and where solutions drift away from each other. A key observation from our new method is that a large temporal offset existed during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. This observation relies on relative changes within the dataset, which are more robust than absolute values. I will discuss our method and its main caveats and avenues for improvement.

Environmental Assessment: Demolish 452 at Grand Forks Air Force Base

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-01

Data Sheet MSL Mean Sea Level µg/m3 Micrograms Per Meter Cubed NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NAGPRA Native American Graves...elm, cottonwood, and green ash. Dutch elm disease has killed many of the elms. European buckthorn (a highly invasive exotic species), chokecherry...level, with local relief being less that one foot. Land at the base is relatively flat; with elevations ranging from 880 to 920 ft mean sea level (MSL

Sea level forecasts for Pacific Islands based on Satellite Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, H.; Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.; Widlansky, M. J.; Marra, J. J.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding at tropical Pacific Islands often occurs when positive sea level anomalies coincide with high tides. To help mitigate this risk, a forecast tool for daily-averaged sea level anomalies is developed that can be added to predicted tides at tropical Pacific Island sites. The forecast takes advantage of the observed westward propagation that sea level anomalies exhibit over a range of time scales. The daily near-real time altimetry gridded data from Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO) is used to specify upstream sea level at each site, with lead times computed based on mode-one baroclinic Rossby wave speeds. To validate the forecast, hindcasts are compared to tide gauge and nearby AVISO gridded time series. The forecast skills exceed persistence at most stations out to a month or more lead time. The skill is highest at stations where eddy variability is relatively weak. The impacts on the forecasts due to varying propagation speed, decay time, and smoothing of the AVISO data are examined. In addition, the inclusion of forecast winds in a forced wave equation is compared to the freely propagating results. Case studies are presented for seasonally high tide events throughout the Pacific Island region.

Estimates of twenty-first century sea-level changes for Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Matthew J. R.; Breili, Kristian; Kierulf, Halfdan P.

2014-03-01

In this work we establish a framework for estimating future regional sea-level changes for Norway. Following recently published works, we consider how different physical processes drive non-uniform sea-level changes by accounting for spatial variations in (1) ocean density and circulation (2) ice and ocean mass changes and associated gravitational effects on sea level and (3) vertical land motion arising from past surface loading change and associated gravitational effects on sea level. An important component of past and present sea-level change in Norway is glacial isostatic adjustment. Central to our study, therefore, is a reassessment of vertical land motion using a far larger set of new observations from a permanent GNSS network. Our twenty-first century sea-level estimates are split into two parts. Firstly, we show regional projections largely based on findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) and dependent on the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. These indicate that twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway will vary between -0.2 to 0.3 m (1-sigma ± 0.13 m). Secondly, we explore a high-end scenario, in which a global atmospheric temperature rise of up to 6 °C and emerging collapse for some areas of the Antarctic ice sheets are assumed. Using this approach twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway are found to vary between 0.25 and 0.85 m (min/max ± 0.45 m). We attach no likelihood to any of our projections owing to the lack of understanding of some of the processes that cause sea-level change.

Increased Flooding Risk - Accelerating Threat and Stakeholder Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkinson, L. P.; Ezer, T.; De Young, R.; McShane, M. K.; McFarlane, B.

2012-12-01

Coastal cities have been adapting to coastal flooding for centuries. Now, with increased population along the coast combined with increased flooding because of sea level rise (SLR) the vulnerability of coastal cities has increased significantly. In this paper we will discuss the physical threat of accelerating sea level rise and the response of stakeholders. Sallenger et al (2012) stated "... we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modeled fingerprint of dynamic SLR." In the Northeast Hotspot (NEH) dynamic processes such as Gulf Stream transport can cause local sea level differences (Ezer, 2001). Sweet et al (2009) attributed the anomalously high sea level along the mid-Atlantic in 2009 to dynamic SLR. A recent paper (Ezer and Corlett, 2012 submitted), focused on Chesapeake Bay, confirms Sallenger et al. These accelerations suggest that the higher estimates of SLR in IPCC reports may be better estimates. The combination of local sea level rise and acceleration, even with average coastal storm surge, results in increased vulnerability and economic losses. We will use three examples of stakeholder response to this threat: shipbuilding, cities and insurance. Nuclear aircraft carrier drydock in Newport News, VA - The only drydock where nuclear powered aircraft carriers are built flooded during Hurricane Isabel. A study showed that with a 1 meter sea level rise and no change in storm severity they would have 'Major Flooding' every 4 months rather than every 27 years. Cities infrastructure - In a recent report on sea level rise, the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (representing nearly 2m people) found that "sea level rise will be a major issue", "there is not yet official state or federal guidance for addressing sea level rise", "…the "…U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has developed guidance…" for their projects, and "…subsidence …. is not well-documented". Studies sponsored by the City of Norfolk for example suggest massive tidal barriers. Flood insurance - Flood insurance is available only from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), not from private insurers. NFIP has a current deficit of about 18B, which is estimated to increase by about 2B annually. The rates are subsidized and do not reflect the true risk of coastal flooding and do not incorporate the likelihood of future sea-level rise. In effect, the subsidy promotes increased building on the coast, leading to increased deficits in the tax-payer financed program. Risk-based flood insurance pricing would lead to less coastal development, therefore decreasing the tax base of the community. Stakeholder needs - Planning for increased flooding due to sea level rise extends 50 to 100 years given the lifetime of infrastructure. Planners need guidance and error estimates. To make adequate predictions for users we must understand the various components of sea level rise including subsidence, global sea level rise and regional and local dynamic sea level rise. Predictions of regional sea level rise will be presented in the context of existing infrastructure such as NASA research facilities and the city of Norfolk, Virginia.

Holocene sea level and climate change in the Black Sea: Multiple marine incursions related to freshwater discharge events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, R.E.; Leorri, E.; McLaughlin, P.P.

2007-01-01

Repeated marine invasions of the Black Sea during the Holocene have been inferred by many eastern scientists as resulting from episodes of marine inflow from the Mediterranean beneath a brackish outflow from the Black Sea. We support this scenario but a fundamental question remains: What caused the repeated marine invasions? We offer an hypothesis for the repeated marine invasions of the Black Sea based on: (1) the overall similarity of sea-level curves from both tectonically quiescent and active margins of the Black Sea and their similarity to a sequence stratigraphic record from the US mid-Atlantic coast. The similarity of the records from two widely-separated regions suggests their common response to documented Holocene climate ocean-atmosphere reorganizations (coolings); (2) the fact that in the modern Black Sea, freshwater runoff from surrounding rivers dominates over evaporation, so that excess runoff might have temporarily raised Black Sea level (although the Black Sea would have remained brackish). Following the initial invasion of the Black Sea by marine Mediterranean waters (through the Marmara Sea) in the early Holocene, repeated marine incursions were modulated, or perhaps even caused, by freshwater discharge to the Black Sea. Climatic amelioration (warming) following each documented ocean-atmosphere reorganization during the Holocene likely shifted precipitation patterns in the surrounding region and caused mountain glaciers to retreat, increasing freshwater runoff above modern values and temporarily contributing to an increase of Black Sea level. Freshwater-to-brackish water discharges into the Black Sea initially slowed marine inflow but upon mixing of runoff with more marine waters beneath them and their eventual exit through the Bosphorus, marine inflow increased again, accounting for the repeated marine invasions. The magnitude of the hydrologic and sea-level fluctuations became increasingly attenuated through the Holocene, as reflected by Black Sea level curves. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Sea level change in Great Britain between 1859 and the present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodworth, Philip L.

2018-04-01

Short records of sea level measurements by the Ordnance Survey at 31 locations in 1859-1860, together with recent Mean Sea Level (MSL) information from the UK tide gauge network, have been used to estimate the average rates of sea level change around the coast of Great Britain since the mid-19th century. Rates are found to be approximately 1 mm yr-1 in excess of those expected for the present day based on geological information, providing evidence for a climate-change related component of the increase in UK sea level. In turn, the rates of change of MSL for the past 60 yr are estimated to be ˜1 mm yr-1 in excess of the long-term rates since 1859, suggesting an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise between the 19th and 20th/21st centuries. Although the historical records are very short (approximately a fortnight), this exercise in `data archaeology' shows how valuable to research even the shortest records can be, as long as the measurements were made by competent people and the datums of the measurements were fully documented.

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar to capture spatial variability of local land-based subsidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekaert, D. P.; Hamlington, B.; Buzzanga, B. A.; Jones, C. E.

2017-12-01

The rate of relative sea level rise results from a combination of land subsidence and rising seas associated with global warming on long timescales and exacerbated by shifts in ocean dynamics on shorter timescales. An understanding of the current-day magnitude of each component is needed to create accurate projections of future relative sea level rise upon which to base planning efforts. Current day land-based subsidence rates derived from GPS often lack the spatial resolution to capture the local spatial variability needed when assessing the impact of relative sea-level rise. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is an attractive technique that has the potential to provide a measurement every 20-30m when good signal coherence is maintained. In practice, coastal regions are challenging for InSAR due to variable vegetation cover and soil moisture, which can be in part mitigated by applying advanced time-series InSAR techniques. After applying time-series InSAR, derived rates need to be combined with GPS to tie relative subsidence rates into a geodetic reference frame. Given the need to make projections of relative sea-level rise it is particularly important to propagate all uncertainties during the different processing stages. Here we provide results from ALOS and Sentinel-1 over Hampton Roads area in the Chesapeake Bay region, which is experiencing one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United States. Although the current derived subsidence rates have large uncertainties, it is expected that this will improve with the decadal observations from Sentinel-1.

Seasonal sea surface and sea ice signal in the fjords of Eastern Greenland from CryoSat-2 SARin altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abulaitijiang, Adili; Baltazar Andersen, Ole; Stenseng, Lars

2014-05-01

Cryosat-2 offers the first ever possibility to perform coastal altimetric studies using SAR-Interferometry. This enabled qualified measurements of sea surface height (SST) in the fjords in Greenland. Scoresbysund fjord on the east coast of Greenland is the largest fjord in the world which is also covered by CryoSat-2 SAR-In mask making it a good test region. Also, the tide gauge operated by DTU Space is sitting in Scoresbysund bay, which provides solid ground-based sea level variation records throughout the year. We perform an investigation into sea surface height variation since the start of the Cryosat-2 mission using SAR-In L1B data processed with baseline B processing. We have employed a new develop method for projecting all SAR-In observations in the Fjord onto a centerline up the Fjord. Hereby we can make solid estimates of the annual and (semi-) annual signal in sea level/sea ice freeboard within the Fjord. These seasonal height variations enable us to derive sea ice freeboard changes in the fjord from satellite altimetry. Derived sea level and sea-ice freeboard can be validated by comparison with the tide gauge observations for sea level and output from the Microwave Radiometer derived observations of sea ice freeboard developed at the Danish Meteorological Institute.

New Constraints from the Seychelles on the Timing and Magnitude of Peak Global Mean Sea Level during the Last Interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyverberg, K.; Dechnik, B.; Dutton, A.; Webster, J.; Zwartz, D.; Edwards, R. L.

2016-12-01

Projecting the rate of future sea-level rise remains a primary challenge associated with continued climate change. However, uncertainties remain in our understanding of the rate of polar ice sheet retreat in warmer-than-present climates. To address this issue, we present a new sea level reconstruction from the tectonically stable granitic Seychelles based on Last Interglacial coral ages and elevations within their sedimentary and stratigraphic context, including estimates of paleo-water depth based on newly defined coralgal assemblages. The reef facies analyzed here has a narrow and shallow paleowater depth range (<2 m) providing increased control on the absolute position of sea level during this time period. Corrected for local glacial isostatic adjustment effects including the fingerprint associated with polar ice sheet mass loss, corals found in primary growth position within in situ coralgal reef framework confirm that global mean sea level (GMSL) was nearly 6 m above present early in the interglacial period. Each coral was dated in triplicate and screened for anomalous U-series geochemistry parameters. The combination of age-elevation data with the sedimentary micro and macro facies and stratigraphic analysis reveals a sea-level rise over 5-6 thousand years that is punctuated by repeated episodes of reef disturbance. These episodes are marked stratigraphically by coral rubble layers or extensive lateral encrustations of Millepora sp. that are infested with coral-dwelling barnacles. These disturbance layers may have been generated through internal reef processes and/or external agents, including coral disease, bleaching, predation, hurricanes, or sub-aerial exposure. In total, these new observations provide improved constraints on the timing, magnitude, and rates of sea-level rise during the Last Interglacial.

Coupling landscapes to solid-Earth deformation over the ice-age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pico, T.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Ferrier, K.; Braun, J.

2016-12-01

We present initial results of a coupled ice-age sea level - landscape evolution code. Deformation of the solid Earth in response to the growth and ablation of continental ice sheets produces spatially-variable patterns of sea-level change. Recent modeling has considered the impact of sedimentation and erosion on sea level predictions across the last glacial cycle, but these studies have imposed, a-priori, a record of sediment flux and erosion, rather than computing them from a physics-based model of landscape evolution in the presence of sea-level (topography) changes. These topography changes range from 1-10 m/kyr in the near and intermediate field of the Late Pleistocene ice cover, and are thus comparable to (or exceed) tectonic rates in such regions. Our simulations aim to address the following question: how does solid-Earth deformation influence the evolution of landscapes over glacial periods? To address this issue, we couple a highly-efficient landscape evolution code, Fastscape (Braun & Willett, 2013), to a global, gravitationally-self consistent sea-level theory. Fastscape adopts standard geomorphic laws governing incision and marine deposition, and the sea-level model is based on the canonical work of Farrell & Clark (1976), with extensions to include the effects of rotation and time varying shoreline geometries (Kendall et al., 2005), and sediment erosion and deposition (Dalca et al, 2013). We will present global results and focus on a few regional case studies where deposition rates from a dataset of sedimentary cores can be used as a check on the simulations. These predictions quantify the influence of sea-level change (including that associated with sedimentation and erosion) on geomorphic drivers of landscape evolution, and in turn, the solid Earth deformation caused by these surface processes over an ice age.

Stratigraphy and Facies of Cretaceous Schrader Bluff and Prince Creek Formations in Colville River Bluffs, North Slope, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flores, Romeo M.; Myers, Mark D.; Houseknecht, David W.; Stricker, Gary D.; Brizzolara, Donald W.; Ryherd, Timothy J.; Takahashi, Kenneth I.

2007-01-01

Stratigraphic and sedimentologic studies of facies of the Upper Cretaceous rocks along the Colville River Bluffs in the west-central North Slope of Alaska identified barrier shoreface deposits consisting of vertically stacked, coarsening-upward parasequences in the Schrader Bluff Formation. This vertical stack of parasequence deposits represents progradational sequences that were affected by shoaling and deepening cycles caused by fluctuations of sea level. Further, the vertical stack may have served to stabilize accumulation of voluminous coal deposits in the Prince Creek Formation, which formed braided, high-sinuosity meandering, anastomosed, and low-sinuosity meandering fluvial channels and related flood plain deposits. The erosional contact at the top of the uppermost coarsening-upward sequence, however, suggests a significant drop of base level (relative sea level) that permitted a semiregional subaerial unconformity to develop at the contact between the Schrader Bluff and Prince Creek Formations. This drop of relative sea level may have been followed by a relative sea-level rise to accommodate coal deposition directly above the unconformity. This rise was followed by a second drop of relative sea level, with formation of incised valley topography as much as 75 ft deep and an equivalent surface of a major marine erosion or mass wasting, or both, either of which can be traced from the Colville River Bluffs basinward to the subsurface in the west-central North Slope. The Prince Creek fluvial deposits represent late Campanian to late Maastrichtian depositional environments that were affected by these base level changes influenced by tectonism, basin subsidence, and sea-level fluctuations.

Acceleration in U.S. Mean Sea Level? A New Insight using Improved Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Phil J.

2016-08-01

The detection of acceleration in mean sea level around the data-rich margins of the United States has been a keen endeavour of sea-level researchers following the seminal work of Bruce Douglas in 1992. Over the past decade, such investigations have taken on greater prominence given mean sea level remains a key proxy by which to measure a changing climate system. The physics-based climate projection models are forecasting that the current global average rate of mean sea-level rise (≈3 mm/y) might climb to rates in the range of 10020 mm/y by 2100. Most research in this area has centred on reconciling current rates of rise with the significant accelerations required to meet the forecast projections of climate models. The analysis in this paper is based on a recently developed analytical package titled "msltrend," specifically designed to enhance estimates of trend, real-time velocity and acceleration in the relative mean sea-level signal derived from long annual average ocean-water-level time series. Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or substantial evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available for the United States, nor does any evidence exist that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely that a further 20 years of data will identify whether recent increases east of Galveston and along the east coast are evidence of the onset of climate change induced acceleration.

Relative sea level trend and variability in the central Mediterranean in the time span 1872-2014 from tide gauge data: implications for future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anzidei, Marco; Vecchio, Antonio

2015-04-01

We used tidal data collected in the time span 1872-2014 from a set of historical and modern stations located in the central Mediterranean, along the coasts of Italy, France, Slovenia and Croatia. The longest records span across the last two or three centuries for the tidal stations of Genova, Marseille, Trieste and Venice. While data from Bakar, Dubrovink, Rovinji and Split, all located along the coast of the Adriatic sea, provide valid records for a time span about 50 years long. In addition to these stations, since 1998 become available for the Italian region new sea level data from the dense national tidal network (www.mareografico.it). These digital stations are collecting data continuously at 10 minute sampling interval with a nominal accuracy at 1 mm. Therefore, in addition to the historical stations, we have the opportunity to analyze a sea level data set that cover about the last 16 years. In this study we show and discuss the results of our analysis of sea level data for the central Mediterranean, providing new insights on sea level trend and variability for about the past 140 years. Finally, based on sea level data and IPCC reports, we provide future sea level projections for this region for the year 2100 with implications for coastal flooding of lowland areas.

Potentiometric Surface of the Aquia Aquifer in Southern Maryland, September 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Staley, Andrew W.

2009-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the Aquia aquifer in the Aquia Formation of Paleocene age in Southern Maryland during September 2007. The map is based on water-level measurements in 85 wells. The highest measured water level was 50 feet above sea level near the northern boundary and outcrop area of the aquifer in the central part of Anne Arundel County, and was below sea level just south of this area and in the remainder of the study area. The hydraulic gradient increased southeastward toward an extensive cone of depression around well fields at Lexington Park and Solomons Island. A water level measured west of the Cheasapeake Beach area has declined to 57 feet below sea level due to increased withdrawals. The lowest water level measured was 162 feet below sea level at the center of a cone of depression at Lexington Park.

A Late Pleistocene sea level stack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spratt, R. M.; Lisiecki, L. E.

2015-08-01

Late Pleistocene sea level has been reconstructed from ocean sediment core data using a wide variety of proxies and models. However, the accuracy of individual reconstructions is limited by measurement error, local variations in salinity and temperature, and assumptions particular to each technique. Here we present a sea level stack (average) which increases the signal-to-noise ratio of individual reconstructions. Specifically, we perform principal component analysis (PCA) on seven records from 0-430 ka and five records from 0-798 ka. The first principal component, which we use as the stack, describes ~80 % of the variance in the data and is similar using either five or seven records. After scaling the stack based on Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea level estimates, the stack agrees to within 5 m with isostatically adjusted coral sea level estimates for Marine Isotope Stages 5e and 11 (125 and 400 ka, respectively). When we compare the sea level stack with the δ18O of benthic foraminifera, we find that sea level change accounts for about ~40 % of the total orbital-band variance in benthic δ18O, compared to a 65 % contribution during the LGM-to-Holocene transition. Additionally, the second and third principal components of our analyses reflect differences between proxy records associated with spatial variations in the δ18O of seawater.

Regional variability of sea level change using a global ocean model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombard, A.; Garric, G.; Cazenave, A.; Penduff, T.; Molines, J.

2007-12-01

We analyse different runs of a global eddy-permitting (1/4 degree) ocean model driven by atmospheric forcing to evaluate regional variability of sea level change over 1993-2001, 1998-2006 and over the long period 1958-2004. No data assimilation is performed in the model, contrarily to previous similar studies (Carton et al., 2005; Wunsch et al., 2007; Koehl and Stammer, 2007). We compare the model-based regional sea level trend patterns with the one deduced from satellite altimetry data. We examine respective contributions of steric and bottom pressure changes to total regional sea level changes. For the steric component, we analyze separately the contributions of temperature and salinity changes as well as upper and lower ocean contributions.

Possible Evidence of Multiple Sea Level Oscillations in the Seychelles During the Last Interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, A. L.; Vyverberg, K.; Webster, J.; Dechnik, B.; Zwartz, D.; Lambeck, K.

2013-12-01

In search of a eustatic sea level signal on glacial-interglacial timescales, the Seychelles ranks as one of the best places on the planet to study. Owing to its far-field location with respect to the former margins of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, glacio-hydro-isostatic models predict that relative sea level in the Seychelles should lie within a few meters of the globally averaged eustatic signal during interglacial periods. We have surveyed and dated fossil coral reefs from the last interglacial period to determine the magnitude of peak sea level and to assess sedimentologic evidence of potential sea level oscillations. Numerous outcrops we studied in detail exhibit a stratigraphic sequence comprised of in situ coralgal framework at the base, capped by thick coralline algae crusts, and overlain by coral rubble deposits. We also observed a succession of three stacked coralgal reefs within a single outcrop, separated by hardgrounds that have been bored by molluscs. In general, the succession within each reef unit consists of interlayered corals and crusts of coralline algae-vermetid gastropods-encrusting foraminifera. The lower two reef units are capped by a well-cemented 5 to 10 cm thick carbonate mud layer that is heavily bored by molluscs. These two surfaces may represent exposure surfaces during brief sea level oscillations, where sea level fell and exposed the top of the reef sequence, which was subsequently bored when sea level rose again and reef growth resumed. The elevations of the corals in each reef unit provide minimum elevations of sea level during each of the three pulses of sea level highstands during the last interglacial period. Significantly, since many of these corals are capped by thick coralline algae layers that contain vermetid gastropods and encrusting foraminifera that are indicative of the intertidal zone, there is strong evidence that these corals grew in extremely shallow water, providing a robust indication of sea level position. These observations ostensibly support the notion that the last interglacial period was characterized by ice sheet instability, causing multiple sea level oscillations.

Observational analysis of air-sea fluxes and sea water temperature offshore South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, X.; Huang, J.; Gao, Z.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

This paper investigates the air-sea fluxes (momentum flux, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux) from eddy covariance method based on data collected at an offshore observation tower in the South China Sea from January 2009 to December 2016 and sea water temperature (SWT) on six different levels based on data collected from November 2011 to June 2013. The depth of water at the tower over the sea averages about 15 m. This study presents the in-situ measurements of continuous air-sea fluxes and SWT at different depths. Seasonal and diurnal variations in air-sea fluxes and SWT on different depths are examined. Results show that air-sea fluxes and all SWT changed seasonally; sea-land breeze circulation appears all the year round. Unlike winters where SWT on different depths are fairly consistent, the difference between sea surface temperature (SST) and sea temperature at 10 m water depth fluctuates dramatically and the maximum value reaches 7 °C during summer.

Potentiometric Surface of the Aquia Aquifer in Southern Maryland, September 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Wheeler, Judith C.

2001-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the Aquia aquifer in the Aquia Formation of Paleocene age in Southern Maryland during September 1999. The map is based on water-level measurements in 85 wells. The potentiometric surface was above sea level near the northern boundary and outcrop area of the aquifer in a topographically high area of Anne Arundel County, and was below sea level in the remainder of the study area. The hydraulic gradient was directed southeastward toward an extensive cone of depression around well fields at Lexington Park and Solomons Island. Ground-water levels were more than 80 feet below sea level in a 100-square-mile area surrounding the deepest part of the cone of depression. A cone of depression formed in northern Calvert County due to pumpage at Chesapeake Beach and North Beach. The water level has declined to 43 feet below sea level in this area. The lowest measurement was 164 feet below sea level in a well near the center of the cone of depression at Lexington Park.

Assessing the impact of sea level rise due to climate change on seawater intrusion in Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

PubMed

Vu, D T; Yamada, T; Ishidaira, H

2018-03-01

In the context of climate change, salinity intrusion into rivers has been, and will be, one of the most important issues for coastal water resources management. A combination of changes, including increased temperature, change in regional rainfall, especially sea level rise (SLR) related to climate change, will have significant impacts on this phenomenon. This paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (MKD) for evaluating the effect of sea water intrusion under a new SLR scenario. Salinity intrusion was simulated by one-dimensional (1D) modeling. The relative sea level projection was constructed corresponding to the RCP 6.0 emission scenario for MKD based on the statistical downscaling method. The sea level in 2050 is projected to increase from 25 cm to 30 cm compared to the baseline period (in 2000). Furthermore, the simulated results suggested that salinity greater than 4 g/l, which affects rice yield, will intrude up to 50-60 km into the river. Approximately 30,000 ha of agricultural area will be affected if the sea level rise is 30 cm.

Late Pleistocene Sea level on the New Jersey Margin: Implications to eustasy and deep-sea temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, J.D.; Sheridan, R.E.; Miller, K.G.; Uptegrove, J.; Cramer, B.S.; Browning, J.V.

2009-01-01

We assembled and dated a late Pleistocene sea-level record based on sequence stratigraphy from the New Jersey margin and compared it with published records from fossil uplifted coral reefs in New Guinea, Barbados, and Araki Island, as well as a composite sea-level estimate from scaling of Red Sea isotopic values. Radiocarbon dates, amino acid racemization data, and superposition constrain the ages of large (20-80??m) sea-level falls from New Jersey that correlate with Marine Isotope Chrons (MIC) 2, 3b, 4, 5b, and 6 (the past 130??kyr). The sea-level records for MIC 1, 2, 4, 5e, and 6 are similar to those reported from New Guinea, Barbados, Araki, and the Red Sea; some differences exist among records for MIC 3. Our record consistently provides the shallowest sea level estimates for MIC3 (??? 25-60??m below present); it agrees most closely with the New Guinea record of Chappell (2002; ??? 35-70??m), but contrasts with deeper estimates provided by Araki (??? 85-95??m) and the Red Sea (50-90??m). Comparison of eustatic estimates with benthic foraminiferal ??18O records shows that the deep sea cooled ??? 2.5????C between MIC 5e and 5d (??? 120-110??ka) and that near freezing conditions persisted until Termination 1a (14-15??ka). Sea-level variations between MIC 5b and 2 (ca. 90-20??ka) follow a well-accepted 0.1???/10??m linear variation predicted by ice-growth effects on foraminiferal ??18O values. The pattern of deep-sea cooling follows a previously established hysteresis loop between two stable modes of operation. Cold, near freezing deep-water conditions characterize most of the past 130??kyr punctuated only by two warm intervals (the Holocene/MIC 1 and MIC 5e). We link these variations to changes in Northern Component Water (NCW). ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of sea-level rise and pumpage elimination on saltwater intrusion in the Hilton Head Island area, South Carolina, 2004-2104

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payne, Dorothy F.

2010-01-01

Saltwater intrusion of the Upper Floridan aquifer has been observed in the Hilton Head area, South Carolina since the late 1970s and currently affects freshwater supply. Rising sea level in the Hilton Head Island area may contribute to the occurrence of and affect the rate of saltwater intrusion into the Upper Floridan aquifer by increasing the hydraulic gradient and by inundating an increasing area with saltwater, which may then migrate downward into geologic units that presently contain freshwater. Rising sea level may offset any beneficial results from reductions in groundwater pumpage, and thus needs to be considered in groundwater-management decisions. A variable-density groundwater flow and transport model was modified from a previously existing model to simulate the effects of sea-level rise in the Hilton Head Island area. Specifically, the model was used to (1) simulate trends of saltwater intrusion from predevelopment to the present day (1885-2004) and evaluate the conceptual model, (2) project these trends from the present day into the future based on different potential rates of sea-level change, and (3) evaluate the relative influences of pumpage and sea-level rise on saltwater intrusion. Four scenarios were simulated for 2004-2104: (1) continuation of the estimated sea-level rise rate over the last century, (2) a doubling of the sea-level rise, (3) a cessation of sea-level rise, and (4) continuation of the rate over the last century coupled with an elimination of all pumpage. Results show that, if present-day (year 2004) pumping conditions are maintained, the extent of saltwater in the Upper Floridan aquifer will increase, whether or not sea level continues to rise. Furthermore, if all pumpage is eliminated and sea level continues to rise, the simulated saltwater extent in the Upper Floridan aquifer is reduced. These results indicate that pumpage is a strong driving force for simulated saltwater intrusion, more so than sea-level rise at current rates. However, results must be considered in light of limitations in the model, including, but not limited to uncertainty in field data, the conceptual model, the physical properties and representation of the hydrogeologic framework, and boundary and initial conditions, as well as uncertainty in future conditions, such as the rate of sea-level rise.

Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.

2017-12-01

For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.

High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

2017-05-01

Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, Randall W.

2009-07-01

Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.

Coastal sea level measurements using a single geodetic GPS receiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, Kristine M.; Löfgren, Johan S.; Haas, Rüdiger

2013-04-01

This paper presents a method to derive local sea level variations using data from a single geodetic-quality Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver using GPS (Global Positioning System) signals. This method is based on multipath theory for specular reflections and the use of Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) data. The technique could be valuable for altimeter calibration and validation. Data from two test sites, a dedicated GPS tide gauge at the Onsala Space Observatory (OSO) in Sweden and the Friday Harbor GPS site of the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) in USA, are analyzed. The sea level results are compared to independently observed sea level data from nearby and in situ tide gauges. For OSO, the Root-Mean-Square (RMS) agreement is better than 5 cm, while it is in the order of 10 cm for Friday Harbor. The correlation coefficients are better than 0.97 for both sites. For OSO, the SNR-based results are also compared with results from a geodetic analysis of GPS data of a two receivers/antennae tide gauge installation. The SNR-based analysis results in a slightly worse RMS agreement with respect to the independent tide gauge data than the geodetic analysis (4.8 cm and 4.0 cm, respectively). However, it provides results even for rough sea surface conditions when the two receivers/antennae installation no longer records the necessary data for a geodetic analysis.

GIS-based vulnerability assessment to sea level rise of Al Hoceima Bay (Moroccan Mediterranean): towards an integrated coastal zone management (ICZM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khouakhi, A.; Snoussi, M.

2013-12-01

In the context of coastal vulnerability to climate change and human impacts, integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) is an increasingly relevant process for the sustainable development of coastal areas, in which scientific input plays a vital role. In the Mediterranean Basin, projected increases in sea level rise and in the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events pose a major challenge for the management of low-lying coastal ecosystems and human settlements. The bay of Al Hoceima is one of the least studied and largest low-lying coastal areas of the Moroccan Mediterranean coast, and is exposed to the effects of sea level rise and storms. The coast is also a touristic area and one of the most important economic assets in the region. Physical coastal vulnerability assessments, determination of setback lines, and evaluation of coastal aquifer vulnerability to sea level rise are among the principal tools used to help decision makers in such a context. Here we quantified, in the context of sea level rise: (1) the physical vulnerability of the coastline, by developing a standard index methodology based on the five most relevant physical indices for local-scale vulnerability analysis, for a total of 822 50m/50m coastal cells; (2) coastal setback lines, based on shoreline evolutionary trends adjusted to sea level rise scenarios using a digital shoreline Analysis System (DSAS); and (3) the vulnerability to sea water intrusion in the coastal aquifer, using a modified GALDIT index (ground water occurrence, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, depth to groundwater level above the sea; distance from the shore; impact of existing status of sea water intrusion in the area; and thickness of the aquifer), following an integrated GIS approach. We find that 41% of the studied coastline is highly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise and extreme weather events; 60% of the coastline is in retreat (with rates varying between -2m and -0.2m/y), 30% is in dynamic equilibrium (rates of -0.2 to +0.2m/y), and 10% is gradually prograding (with accretion rates of +0.2 to +0.8m/y). Setback line analysis indicates a potential retreat of the coastline of up to -90m by 2050 in the most vulnerable sectors. We find that the aquifer is subject to a moderate to high risk for at least half of its total area, and that for an assumed sea level rise of 0.5 m, the vulnerable surface area will increase by up to two times. The assessment of coastal erosion under different scenarios of sea level rise showed that, if no action is taken, most of the beaches are likely to disappear from the coupled effects of erosion and inundation. These findings will have direct repercussions for coastal development programs over both the short and long terms. The final results aim to provide coastal managers with tools to help the implementation of ICZM.

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Geodetic Vertical Datum of Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Din, A. H. M.; Abazu, I. C.; Pa'suya, M. F.; Omar, K. M.; Hamid, A. I. A.

2016-09-01

Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015) for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015) for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD) is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 - 1993) and 32 years (1984 - 2015) tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.

Dynamic Singularity Spectrum Distribution of Sea Clutter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Gang; Yu, Wenxian; Zhang, Shuning

2015-12-01

The fractal and multifractal theory have provided new approaches for radar signal processing and target-detecting under the background of ocean. However, the related research mainly focuses on fractal dimension or multifractal spectrum (MFS) of sea clutter. In this paper, a new dynamic singularity analysis method of sea clutter using MFS distribution is developed, based on moving detrending analysis (DMA-MFSD). Theoretically, we introduce the time information by using cyclic auto-correlation of sea clutter. For transient correlation series, the instantaneous singularity spectrum based on multifractal detrending moving analysis (MF-DMA) algorithm is calculated, and the dynamic singularity spectrum distribution of sea clutter is acquired. In addition, we analyze the time-varying singularity exponent ranges and maximum position function in DMA-MFSD of sea clutter. For the real sea clutter data, we analyze the dynamic singularity spectrum distribution of real sea clutter in level III sea state, and conclude that the radar sea clutter has the non-stationary and time-varying scale characteristic and represents the time-varying singularity spectrum distribution based on the proposed DMA-MFSD method. The DMA-MFSD will also provide reference for nonlinear dynamics and multifractal signal processing.

Nudging Satellite Altimeter Data Into Quasi-Geostrophic Ocean Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verron, Jacques

1992-05-01

This paper discusses the efficiency of several variants of the nudging technique (derived from the technique of the same name developed by meteorologists) for assimilating altimeter data into numerical ocean models based on quasi-geostrophic formulation. Assimilation experiments are performed with data simulated in the nominal sampling conditions of the Topex-Poseidon satellite mission. Under experimental conditions it is found that nudging on the altimetric sea level is as efficient as nudging on the vorticity (second derivative in space of the dynamic topography), the technique used thus far in studies of this type. The use of altimetric residuals only, instead of the total altimetric sea level signal, is also explored. The critical importance of having an adequate reference mean sea level is largely confirmed. Finally, the possibility of nudging only the signal of sea level tendency (i.e., the successive time differences of the sea level height) is examined. Apart from the barotropic mode, results are not very successful compared with those obtained by assimilating the residuals.

Analysis of sea use landscape pattern based on GIS: a case study in Huludao, China.

PubMed

Suo, Anning; Wang, Chen; Zhang, Minghui

2016-01-01

This study aims to analyse sea use landscape patterns on a regional scale based on methods of landscape ecology integrated with sea use spatial characteristics. Several landscape-level analysis indices, such as the dominance index, complex index, intensivity index, diversity index and sea congruency index, were established using Geographic Information System (GIS) and applied in Huludao, China. The results indicated that sea use landscape analysis indices, which were created based on the characteristics of sea use spatial patterns using GIS, are suitable to quantitatively describe the landscape patterns of sea use. They are operable tools for the landscape analysis of sea use. The sea use landscape in Huludao was dominated by fishing use with a landscape dominance index of 0.724. The sea use landscape is a complex mosaic with high diversity and plenty of fishing areas, as shown by the landscape complex index of 27.21 and the landscape diversity index of 1.25. Most sea use patches correspond to the marine functional zonation plan and the sea use congruency index is 0.89 in the fishing zone and 0.92 in the transportation zone.

A new method to estimate global mass transport and its implication for sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, S.; Heki, K.

2017-12-01

Estimates of changes in global land mass by using GRACE observations can be achieved by two methods, a mascon method and a forward modeling method. However, results from these two methods show inconsistent secular trend. Sea level budget can be adopted to validate the consistency among observations of sea level rise by altimetry, steric change by the Argo project, and mass change by GRACE. Mascon products from JPL, GSFC and CSR are compared here, we find that all these three products cannot achieve a reconciled sea level budget, while this problem can be solved by a new forward modeling method. We further investigate the origin of this difference, and speculate that it is caused by the signal leakage from the ocean mass. Generally, it is well recognized that land signals leak into oceans, but it also happens the other way around. We stress the importance of correction of leakage from the ocean in the estimation of global land masses. Based on a reconciled sea level budget, we confirmed that global sea level rise has been accelerating significantly over 2005-2015, as a result of the ongoing global temperature increase.

Potentiometric Surface of the Aquia Aquifer in Southern Maryland, September 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Wheeler, Judith C.

2002-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the Aquia aquifer in the Aquia Formation of Paleocene age in Southern Maryland during September 2001. The map is based on water-level measurements in 76 wells. The potentiometric surface was highest at 40 feet above sea level near the northern boundary and outcrop area of the aquifer in the central part of Anne Arundel County, and was below sea level in the remainder of the study area. The hydraulic gradient was directed southeastward toward an extensive cone of depression around well fields at Lexington Park and Solomons Island. A cone of depression formed in northern Calvert County due to pumpage at Chesapeake Beach and North Beach. The water level has declined to 44 feet below sea level in this area. The lowest measurement was 160 feet below sea level at the center of a cone of depression at Lexington Park.

Managing for No Net Loss of Ecological Services: An Approach for Quantifying Loss of Coastal Wetlands due to Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassakian, Jennifer; Jones, Ann; Martinich, Jeremy; Hudgens, Daniel

2017-05-01

Sea level rise has the potential to substantially alter the extent and nature of coastal wetlands and the critical ecological services they provide. In making choices about how to respond to rising sea level, planners are challenged with weighing easily quantified risks (e.g., loss of property value due to inundation) against those that are more difficult to quantify (e.g., loss of primary production or carbon sequestration services provided by wetlands due to inundation). Our goal was to develop a cost-effective, appropriately-scaled, model-based approach that allows planners to predict, under various sea level rise and response scenarios, the economic cost of wetland loss—with the estimates proxied by the costs of future restoration required to maintain the existing level of wetland habitat services. Our approach applies the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model to predict changes in wetland habitats over the next century, and then applies Habitat Equivalency Analysis to predict the cost of restoration projects required to maintain ecological services at their present, pre-sea level rise level. We demonstrate the application of this approach in the Delaware Bay estuary and in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida), and discuss how this approach can support future coastal decision-making.

Managing for No Net Loss of Ecological Services: An Approach for Quantifying Loss of Coastal Wetlands due to Sea Level Rise.

PubMed

Kassakian, Jennifer; Jones, Ann; Martinich, Jeremy; Hudgens, Daniel

2017-05-01

Sea level rise has the potential to substantially alter the extent and nature of coastal wetlands and the critical ecological services they provide. In making choices about how to respond to rising sea level, planners are challenged with weighing easily quantified risks (e.g., loss of property value due to inundation) against those that are more difficult to quantify (e.g., loss of primary production or carbon sequestration services provided by wetlands due to inundation). Our goal was to develop a cost-effective, appropriately-scaled, model-based approach that allows planners to predict, under various sea level rise and response scenarios, the economic cost of wetland loss-with the estimates proxied by the costs of future restoration required to maintain the existing level of wetland habitat services. Our approach applies the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model to predict changes in wetland habitats over the next century, and then applies Habitat Equivalency Analysis to predict the cost of restoration projects required to maintain ecological services at their present, pre-sea level rise level. We demonstrate the application of this approach in the Delaware Bay estuary and in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida), and discuss how this approach can support future coastal decision-making.

Asynchronous Patterns of East Asian Monsoon Climate Proxies during the Past 28 000 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, Y.; Li, L.; Jia, G.; He, J.; Dong, L.; Ma, X.; Shi, J.; Wang, H.

2015-12-01

The monsoon system serves as a "bridge" in the atmosphere; it connects the circulation between high and low latitudes, influencing the most densely populated regions on Earth. However, what role it played in the geological history is still elusive despite its significance. The climate of South China Sea and the ambient land masses are dominated by the East Asian monsoon, composed of the temperature-cooling East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the rain-bearing East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). In this study, high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST), terrestrial input and humidity changes since ~28 ka were reconstructed based on alkenones and long chain n-alkanes records in core MD12-3428 in northern South China Sea. Our results demonstrated complex and dynamic paleoclimatic situations since the last glacial superimposed on the overall glacial-interglacial trend. During the last deglacial, the rising of the sea level can be dated back to 17 ka and ended at ~12 ka, according to the gradual decrease of long chain n-alkanes concentrations. However, the SST warming began at ~15 ka (~2 000 years after the initial sea level uplift) and achieved a relatively stable state in mid-Holocene (~6 000 years after the sea level stablization). The humidity varibility linked with EASM based on C31/C27 and ACL record indicated highly humid conditions within the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) period, followed by a rapid drying towards the glacial level during Younger Dryas (YD). EASM gradually strengthened after YD when the sea level had run up to almost the present state, and weakened after ~6 ka when sea level and SST both reached the plateau. These large fluctuations of C31/C27 and ACL implied that humidity was more sensitive to climate events since the last deglacial when compared with SST and sea level. The asynchronous patterns of East Asian monsoon climate proxies in the present work indicated the complex heat transport and atmospheric circulation between low and high latitudes.

Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Robert J.

Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question “how much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?” This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising. Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an “IS92a world” based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude. The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding in 2100 is 16-388 million for the mid (55-cm) global-mean sea-level rise scenarios, and up to 510 million people/year for the high (96-cm) scenario. These results suggest that sea-level rise could be a significant problem if it is ignored, and hence it needs to be considered within the policy process considering climate change in terms of mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (improved coastal management and planning) needs.

Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Change from Coral Microatolls, French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Eisenhauer, A.; Vella, C.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Pothin, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, J.

2017-12-01

Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the Anthropocene. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level changes in French Polynesia encompassing the last 6,000 years were reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene sea-level change from coral microatolls, French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Eisenhauer, A.; Vella, C.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Pothin, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, J.

2016-12-01

Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the industrial revolution. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Sea level rise within the west of Arabian Gulf using tide gauge and continuous GPS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayhan, M. E.; Alothman, A.

2009-04-01

Arabian Gulf is connected to Indian Ocean and located in the south-west of the Zagros Trust Belt. To investigate sea level variations within the west of Arabian Gulf, monthly means of sea level at 13 tide gauges along the coast of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, available in the database of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), are studied. We analyzed individually the monthly means at each station, and estimated secular sea level rate by a robust linear trend fitting. We computed the average relative sea level rise rate of 1.96 ± 0.21 mm/yr within the west of Arabian Gulf based on 4 stations spanning longer than 19 years. Vertical land motions are included into the relative sea level measurements at the tide gauges. Therefore sea level rates at the stations are corrected for vertical land motions using the ICE-5G v1.2 VM4 Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model then we found the average sea level rise rate of 2.27 mm/yr. Bahrain International GPS Service (IGS) GPS station, which is close to the Mina Sulman tide gauge station in Bahrain, is the only continuous GPS station accessible in the region. The weekly GPS time series of vertical component at Bahrain IGS-GPS station referring to the ITRF97 from 1999.2 to 2008.6 are downloaded from http://www-gps.mit.edu/~tah/. We fitted a linear trend with an annual signal and one break to the GPS vertical time series and found a vertical land motion rate of 0.48 ± 0.11 mm/yr. Assuming the vertical rate at Bahrain IGS-GPS station represents the vertical rate at each of the other tide gauge stations studied here in the region, we computed average sea level rise rate of 2.44 ± 0.21 mm/yr within the west of Arabian Gulf.

Revisiting Tectonic Corrections Applied to Pleistocene Sea-Level Highstands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creveling, J. R.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Austermann, J.; Kopp, R. E.

2015-12-01

The robustness of stratigraphic- and geomorphic-based inferences of Quaternary peak interglacial sea levels — and equivalent minimum continental ice volumes — depends on the accuracy with which highstand markers can be corrected for vertical tectonic displacement. For sites that preserve a Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e sea-level highstand marker, the customary method for estimating tectonic uplift/subsidence rate computes the difference between the local elevation of the highstand marker and a reference eustatic (i.e., global mean) MIS 5e sea-level height, typically assumed to be +6 m, and then divides this height difference by the age of the highstand marker. This rate is then applied to correct the elevation of other observed sea-level markers at that site for tectonic displacement. Subtracting a reference eustatic value from a local MIS 5e highstand marker elevation introduces two potentially significant errors. First, the commonly adopted peak eustatic MIS 5e sea-level value (i.e., +6 m) is likely too low; recent studies concluded that MIS 5e peak eustatic sea level was ~6-9 m. Second, local peak MIS 5e sea level was not globally uniform, but instead characterized by significant departures from eustasy due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to successive glacial-interglacial cycles and excess polar ice-sheet melt relative to present day. We present numerical models of GIA that incorporate both of these effects in order to quantify the plausible range in error of previous tectonic corrections. We demonstrate that, even far from melting ice sheets, local peak MIS 5e sea level may have departed from eustasy by 2-4 m, or more. Thus, adopting an assumed reference eustatic value to estimate tectonic displacement, rather than a site-specific GIA signal, can introduce significant error in estimates of peak eustatic sea level (and minimum ice volumes) during Quaternary highstands (e.g., MIS 11, MIS 5c and MIS 5a).

Validation of Mean Absolute Sea Level of the North Atlantic obtained from Drifter, Altimetry and Wind Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maximenko, Nikolai A.

2003-01-01

Mean absolute sea level reflects the deviation of the Ocean surface from geoid due to the ocean currents and is an important characteristic of the dynamical state of the ocean. Values of its spatial variations (order of 1 m) are generally much smaller than deviations of the geoid shape from ellipsoid (order of 100 m) that makes the derivation of the absolute mean sea level a difficult task for gravity and satellite altimetry observations. Technique used by Niiler et al. for computation of the absolute mean sea level in the Kuroshio Extension was then developed into more general method and applied by Niiler et al. (2003b) to the global Ocean. The method is based on the consideration of balance of horizontal momentum.

Potentiometric Surface of the Aquia Aquifer in Southern Maryland, September 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Staley, Andrew W.

2010-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the Aquia aquifer in the Aquia Formation of Paleocene age in Southern Maryland during September 2009. The map is based on water-level measurements in 82 wells. The highest measured water level was 48 feet above sea level near the northern boundary and in the outcrop area of the aquifer in the central part of Anne Arundel County. Water levels also were above sea level in Kent County and northern Queen Anne's County. Water levels were below sea level south and east of these areas and in the remainder of the study area. The hydraulic gradient increased southeastward toward a cone of depression around well fields at Lexington Park and Solomons Island. The lowest measured water level was 145 feet below sea level at the center of a cone of depression at Lexington Park. The map also shows well yield in gallons per day for 2008 at wells or well fields.

Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

2017-04-01

Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities, Mediterranean Sea level would follow global changes with departures lower than + 5 cm. In a second step we use the same methodology to obtain SLR projections at global scale in order to assess the vulnerability of other coastal areas. Namely, we define a vulnerability index based on relating the characteristics of present day variability with SLR projections under different scenarios. Results show that the averaged vulnerability index is 0.5 for scenario RCP8.5 (projected SLR is about a half of the maximum sea level recorded in the last decades). However, in the Mediterranean, the Caribbean and the Sea of Japan the vulnerability index is much higher (2.6, 2.4 and 2.1, respectively). From this point of view, therefore, these regions could be considered the most vulnerable regions in the world.

Climate change and Sea level rise: Potential impact on the coast of the Edremit Plain, NW Turkey.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curebal, Isa; Efe, Recep; Soykan, Abdullah; Sonmez, Suleyman

2015-04-01

Over the past century, most of the world's mountain glaciers and the ice sheets have lost mass due to global warming. When the temperature exceeds a particular level, glaciers and polar ice caps will continue to lose mass. Recent studies report that low-lying coastal areas will be seriously affected by sea level rise. Changes in the amount of natural and anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols had a warming effect on the global climate during last century. Thus, the pace of melting of ice sheets increased, and, accordingly, sea level began to rise faster. Rise in sea level between 1961 and 2003 was equal to 1.8 mm/year while it was 3.1 mm/year between 1993 and 2003. The total rise in the 20th century is estimated to be between 17 and 19 cm. The models based on the sea level change indicate that the average global temperature at the end of the 21st century will increase by 0.3°C - 6.4°C. Global sea level is projected to rise 8-25 cm by 2030, relative to 2000 levels, 18-48 cm by 2050, and 50-140 cm by 20110. The Edremit Plain lies between Mount Madra and the Kaz Mountains on the coast of Aegean Sea in NW Turkey. It is lowland with an area of 141 km2. The widest part of the plain is 16 km along the E - W direction. The N - S direction amounts to a width of 15 km. The plain is covered with alluvial deposits that settled in the Quaternary Period. The elevation ranges from 0 to 50 m a.s.l. in the plain. This study aims to determine how the low-lying coastal land areas of the Edremit Plain may be affected by possible changes in sea level. Elevation dataset is based on the digital elevation model (DEM) of Landsat ETM + satellite images. To that end, satellite images were used to draw the current coastline. Curves of 2.5, 5, and 10 m were drawn through the use of maps with a scale of 1/25.000. Later on, the areas of the fields between these points were calculated. Current estimates show that 2.5 m rise in sea level will cause sea water to cover an area of 8.6 km2 (%14.0), 5 m to 28.4 km2 (%21.2), and 10 m to 58.3 km2 (%41.2) on the coastal land. In such cases, a +2.5 m change will trigger the current coastline to regress by 1.3 km while a +5 m change will lead to 3.4 km, and a +10 m change will cause 5.2 km. As a result, residential, agricultural, and wetlands on the coastal land of the plain will be submerged by rising sea levels, leading to significant habitat loss and changes in the ecosystem. The creation of detailed elevation may reveal more clear effects of the changes in sea level. Key Words: Climate change, coastline, Edremit plain, global warming, sea level rise.

Sensitivity of Hurricane Storm Surge to Land Cover and Topography Under Various Sea Level Rise Scenarios Along the Mississippi Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.

2013-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclone conditions. Literature suggests with 'very high confidence that global sea level will rise at least 0.2 m and no more than 2.0 m by 2011' (Donoghue, 2011; Parris et al., 2012). Further, it is recognized that the Mississippi barrier islands are highly susceptible to a westward migration and retreating shoreline. With predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a changing landscape, it is important to understand how these changes may affect inundation extent and flooding due to hurricane storm surge. A state-of-the-art SWAN+ADCIRC hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past (1960) and future (2050) sea level changes were simulated. In addition to altering the initial sea state, land use land cover (LULC) was modified for 1960 and 2050 based on historic data and future projections. LULC datasets are used to derive surface roughness characteristics, such as Manning's n, and wind reduction factors. The topography along the barrier islands and near the Pascagoula River, MS was also altered to reflect the 1960 landscape. Storm surge sensitivity to topographic change were addressed by comparing model results between two 1960 storm surge simulations; one with current topography and a second with changes to the barrier islands. In addition, model responses to changes in LULC are compared. The results will be used to gain insight into adapting present day storm surge models for future conditions. References Donoghue, J. (2011). Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0077-x Parris, A., Bromirski, P., Burkett, V., Cayan, D., Culver, M., Hall, J., . . . Weiss, J. (2012). Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1 (pp. 37). Resio, D. T. (2007). White paper on estimating hurricane inundation probabilities (pp. 125). Vicksburg, MS: U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center.

Potentiometric Surface of the Aquia Aquifer in Southern Maryland, September 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Wheeler, Judith C.

2003-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the Aquia aquifer in the Aquia Formation of Paleocene age in Southern Maryland during September 2002. The map is based on water-level measurements in 94 wells. The highest measured water level was 38 feet above sea level near the northern boundary and outcrop area of the aquifer in the central part of Anne Arundel County, and was below sea level just south of this area and in the remainder of the study area. The hydraulic gradient increased southeastward toward an extensive cone of depression around well fields at Lexington Park and Solomons Island. Another cone of depression occurred in northern Calvert County due to pumpage at and near Chesapeake Beach and North Beach. The water level measured in this area has declined to 55 feet below sea level. The lowest water level measured was 169 feet below sea level at the center of a cone of depression at Lexington Park.

Potentiometric surface of the Aquia Aquifer in southern Maryland, September 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreason, David C.; Wheeler, Judith C.

2005-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the Aquia aquifer in the Aquia Formation of Paleocene age in Southern Maryland during September 2003. The map is based on water-level measurements in 91 wells. The highest measured water level was 40 feet above sea level near the northern boundary and outcrop area of the aquifer in the central part of Anne Arundel County, and was below sea level just south of this area and in the remainder of the study area. The hydraulic gradient increased southeastward toward an extensive cone of depression around well fields at Lexington Park and Solomons Island. Another cone of depression occurred in northern Calvert County due to pumpage at and near North Beach and Chesapeake Beach. The water level measured in this area has declined to 48 feet below sea level. The lowest water level measured was 156 feet below sea level at the center of a cone of depression at Lexington Park.

Potential Inundation due to Rising Sea Levels in the San Francisco Bay Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, Noah

2009-01-01

An increase in the rate of sea level rise is one of the primary impacts of projected global climate change. To assess potential inundation associated with a continued acceleration of sea level rise, the highest resolution elevation data available were assembled from various sources and mosaicked to cover the land surfaces of the San Francisco Bay region. Next, to quantify high water levels throughout the bay, a hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Estuary was driven by a projection of hourly water levels at the Presidio. This projection was based on a combination of climate model outputs and empirical models and incorporates astronomical, storm surge, El Niño, and long-term sea level rise influences. Based on the resulting data, maps of areas vulnerable to inundation were produced, corresponding to specific amounts of sea level rise and recurrence intervals. These maps portray areas where inundation will likely be an increasing concern. In the North Bay, wetland survival and developed fill areas are at risk. In Central and South bays, a key feature is the bay-ward periphery of developed areas that would be newly vulnerable to inundation. Nearly all municipalities adjacent to South Bay face this risk to some degree. For the Bay as a whole, as early as 2050 under this scenario, the one-year peak event nearly equals the 100-year peak event in 2000. Maps of vulnerable areas are presented and some implications discussed.

De-confounding of Relations Between Land-Level and Sea-Level Change, Humboldt Bay, Northern California: Uncertain Predictions of Magnitude and Timing of Tectonic and Eustatic Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilkerson, W.; Leroy, T. H.; Patton, J. R.; Williams, T. B.

2010-12-01

Humboldt Bay in Northern California provides a unique opportunity to investigate the effects of relative sea level change on both native flora and maritime aquiculture as influenced by both tectonic and eustatic sea-level changes. This combination of superposed influences makes quantitatively predicting relative sea-level more uncertain and consumption of the results for public planning purposes exceedingly difficult. Public digestion for practical purposes is confounded by the fact that the uncertainty for eustatic sea-level changes is a magnitude issue while the uncertainty associated with the tectonic land level changes is both a magnitude and timing problem. Secondly, the public is less well informed regarding how crustal deformation contributes to relative sea-level change. We model the superposed effects of eustatic sea-level rise and tectonically driven land-level changes on the spatial distribution of habitats suitable to native eelgrass (Zostera marina) and oyster mariculture operations in Humboldt Bay. While these intertidal organisms were chosen primarily because they have vertically restricted spatial distributions that can be successfully modeled, the public awareness of their ecologic and economic importance is also well developed. We employ easy to understand graphics depicting conceptual ideas along with maps generated from the modeling results to develop locally relevant estimates of future sea level rise over the next 100 years, a time frame consistent with local planning. We bracket these estimates based on the range of possible vertical deformation changes. These graphic displays can be used as a starting point to propose local outcomes from global and regional relative sea-level changes with respect to changes in the distribution of suitable habitat for ecologically and economically valuable species. Currently the largest sources of uncertainty for changes in relative sea-level in the Humboldt Bay area are 1) the rate and magnitude of tectonic deformation throughout the earthquake cycle and 2) the stability and reliability of the tide gauges and other benchmarks assumed to be stable in the Humboldt Bay region.

Statistical prediction of September Arctic Sea Ice minimum based on stable teleconnections with global climate and oceanic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad information interest exists on sea ice, its coverage, variability and long term change. Knowledge on sea ice requires high quality data on ice extent, thickness and its dynamics. However, its predictability depends on various climate parameters and conditions. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal, we developed a robust statistical model based on ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September minimum sea ice extent for every year. Although previous statistical attempts at monthly/seasonal forecasts of September sea ice minimum show a relatively reduced skill, here it is shown that more than 97% (r = 0.98) of the September sea ice extent can predicted three months in advance by using previous months conditions via a multiple linear regression model based on global sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature at 850hPa (TT850), surface winds and sea ice extent persistence. The statistical model is based on the identification of regions with stable teleconnections between the predictors (climatological parameters) and the predictand (here sea ice extent). The results based on our statistical model contribute to the sea ice prediction network for the sea ice outlook report (https://www.arcus.org/sipn) and could provide a tool for identifying relevant regions and climate parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

Cold climate deglaciation prior to termination 2 implied by new evidence for high sea-levels at 132 KA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, R.G.

1992-01-01

Radioisotope dating of corals from reefs and beaches suggests a high sea stand just prior to termination 2. Lack of precision in the ages, stratigraphic uncertainties, and possible diagenetic alterations in the corals have prevented a widespread acceptance of this sea stand. These disadvantages can be avoided by an approach that uses differential uplift measurements to determine the duration of the interval of generally high sea-levels. The last interglacial terrace on Barbados has features indicating two intervals of constant sea-level: an older wave-cut at the inshore edge of the terrace, and a younger cut formed near present eustatic sea-level, belowmore » the crest, and just before the earliest Wisconsin glacial buildup. The differential uplift between these two features, measured at five locations having uplift rates between 0.18 and 0.39m/ka, yields a eustatic sea-level differences of 5.4m and a minimal duration of 12.1 [+-] 0.6ka between the two still stands. The assigned age of the younger wave-cut is 120 [+-] 0.5ka, based on sea-level regression due to ice sheet buildup implied by a Little Ice Age analog and rapidly falling Milankovitch summer insolation. The resulting minimal age of the first high sea-stand is 132.1 [+-] 1.1ka, about 7ka before termination 2. This age implies a major early deglaciation caused by a deficit of moisture transported to the great ice sheets, and occurring under relatively cold climate conditions.« less

Mean and extreme sea level changes in the southwestern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Jessica; Patzke, Justus; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen; Fröhle, Peter

2016-04-01

In this contribution an overview over the BMBF project AMSeL_Ostsee (2015-2018) for the assessment of mean and extreme sea level changes over the past 150 years in the southwestern Baltic Sea is presented. We compile several high resolution tide gauge records provided by the Water and Shipping Administration (WSV) along the German Baltic Sea coastline and merge them in internationally available data bases (UHSLC, PSMSL, and data officially available at national authorities). In addition, we make efforts in digitizing historical records to expand the number of available data sets in this complex and vulnerable coastal region. To separate absolute from relative long-term changes in sea level the vertical land motion (VLM) at specific sites is assessed. Possible sources of VLM are independently assessed by using different state-of-the-art approaches, that is: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelled by viscoelastic Earth models, GPS derived VLM, and the difference between tide gauge and nearby satellite altimetry. The VLM corrected tide gauge records are further assessed for linear and non-linear trends as well as possible acceleration/deceleration patterns by applying advanced time series models such as Singular System Analysis (SSA) combined with a Monte-Carlo-Autoregressive-Padding approach (Wahl et al., 2010). These trend assessments are applied to mean and extreme sea levels independently to prove whether observed changes in extremes are either due to an underlying trend on mean sea levels or changes in storminess. References: Wahl, T., Jensen, J., Frank, T. (2011): On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844, NHESS, 10, 171-179.

The Offlap Break Position Vs Sea Level: A Discussion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tropeano, M.; Pieri, P.; Pomar, L.; Sabato, L.

Sedimentary lithosomes with subhorizontal topsets, basinward prograding foresets and subhorizontal bottomsets are common in the geologic record, and most of them display similar bedding architectures and/or seismic reflection patterns (i.e. Gylbert- type deltas and shelf wedges). Nevertheless, in shallow marine settings these bodies may form in distinct sedimentary environments and they result from different sed- imentary processes. The offlap break (topset edge) occurs in relation to the posi- tion of baselevel and two main groups of lithosomes can be differentiated with re- spect to the position of the offlap break within the shelf profile. The baselevel of the first group is the sea level (or lake level); the topsets are mainly composed by continental- or very-shallow-water sedimentary facies and the offlap break practi- cally corresponds to the shoreline. Exemples of these lithosomes are high-constructive deltas (river-dominated deltas) and prograding beaches. For the second group, base- level corresponds to the base of wave/tide traction, and their topsets are mostly composed by shoreface/nearshore deposits. Examples of these lithosomes are high- destructive deltas (wave/tide-dominated deltas) and infralittoral prograding wedges (i.e Hernandez-Molina et al., 2000). The offlap break corresponds to the shelf edge (shoreface edge), which is located at the transition between nearshore and offshore set- tings, where a terrace prodelta- or transition-slope may develop (Pomar &Tropeano, 2001). Two main problems derive from these alternative interpretations of shallow- marine seaward prograding lithosomes: 1) both in ancient sedimentary shallow-marine successios (showing seaward prograding foresets) and in high resolution seismic pro- files (showing shelf wedges), the offlap break is commonly considered to correspond to the sea-level (shoreline) and used to inferr paleo sea-level positions and to construct sea-level curves. Without a good facies control, this use of the offlap break might cause a misinterpretation of the ancient sea-level positions and the inferred relative sea-level changes. 2) both baselevels, the sea level and the wave/tide base, govern sedimentary accumulation in wave/tide dominated shelves and, consequently, two offlap breaks may coexist (beach edge and shoreface edge) in shallow-marine depositional profiles (Carter et al., 1991). In this setting, two seaward-clinobedded lithosomes, separated by an unconformity, may develop during relative still-stand or falls of the sea-level (Hill et al., 1998). In this case, the two stacked lithosomes could be misinterpreted as two different systems tracts, or sequences, and it could led to the construction of an 1 uncorrect curve of sea-level changes. Carter R.M., Abbott S.T., Fulthorpe C.S., Haywick D.W. and Henderson R.A. (1991): Application of global sea-level and sequence-stratigraphic models in Southern Hemi- sphere Neogene strata from New Zealand. Sp. Publ. IAS, 12, 41-65. Hernández- Molina F.J., Fernández-Salas L.M., Lobo F., Somoza L., Diaz-del-Rio V. and Alver- inho Dias J.M. (2000): The infralittoral prograding wedge: a new large-scale prograda- tional sedimentary body in shallow marine environments. Geo-Marine Letters, 20, 109-117. Hill P.R., Longuépée H. and Roberge M. (1998). Live from Canada: forced regression in action; deltaic shoreface sandbodies being formed. Abstracts, 15th Int. Cong. IAS, Alicante (Spain), 427-428. Pomar L. and Tropeano M. (2001). The Cal- carenite di Gravina Formation in Matera (southern Italy): new insights for coarse- grained, large-scale, cross-bedded bodies encased in offshore deposits. AAPG Bull., 85, 661-689. 2

Sea-level variability over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Robert; Horton, Benjamin; Kemp, Andrew; Engelhart, Simon; Little, Chris

2017-04-01

The Common Era (CE) sea-level response to climate forcing, and its relationship to centennial-timescale climate variability such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), is fragmentary relative to other proxy-derived climate records (e.g. atmospheric surface temperature). However, the Atlantic coast of North America provides a rich sedimentary record of CE relative sea level with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to inform mechanisms underlying regional and global sea level variability and their relationship to other climate proxies. This coast has a small tidal range, improving the precision of sea-level reconstructions. Coastal subsidence (from glacial isostatic adjustment, GIA) creates accommodation space that is filled by salt-marsh peat and preserves accurate and precise sea-level indicators and abundant material for radiocarbon dating. In addition to longer term GIA induced land-level change from ongoing collapse of the Laurentide forebulge, these records are ideally situated to capture climate-driven sea level changes. The western North Atlantic Ocean sea level is sensitive to static equilibrium effects from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as well as large-scale changes in ocean circulation and winds. Our reconstructions reveal two distinct patterns in sea-level during the CE along the United States Atlantic coast: (1) South of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Florida sea-level rise is essentially flat, with the record dominated by long-term geological processes until the onset of historic rates of rise in the late 19th century; (2) North of Cape Hatteras to Connecticut, sea level rise to maximum around 1000CE, a sea-level minimum around 1500 CE, and a long-term sea-level rise through the second half of the second millennium. The northern-intensified sea-level fall beginning 1000 is coincident with shifts toward persistent positive NAO-like atmospheric states inferred from other proxy records and is consistent with climate model simulations forced with sustained NAO-like heat fluxes. Changes in the wind-driven ocean circulation may also contribute to alongshore sea level variability over the CE. To reveal global mean sea level variability, we combine the salt-marsh data from North American Atlantic coast with tide-gauge records and other high resolution proxies from the northern and southern hemispheres. All reconstructions are from coasts that are tectonically stable and are based on four types of proxy archives (archaeological indicators, coral microatolls, salt marsh sediments and vermetid [mollusk] bioconstructions) that are best capable of capturing submeter-scale RSL changes. The database consists of reconstructions from Australasia (n = 2), Europe (n=5), Greenland (n = 3), North America (n = 6), the northern Gulf of Mexico (n = 3), the Mediterranean (n = 1), South Africa (n = 2), South America (n =2) and the South Pacific (n =3). We apply a noisy-input Gaussian process spatio-temporal modeling framework, which identifies a long-term falling global mean sea-level, interrupted in the middle of the 19th century by an acceleration yielding a 20th century rate of rise extremely likely (probability P = 0:95) faster than any previous century in the CE.

Modelling Antarctic sea-level data to explore the possibility of a dominant Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse IA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassett, S. E.; Milne, G. A.; Bentley, M. J.; Huybrechts, P.

2007-09-01

We compare numerical predictions of glaciation-induced sea-level change to data from 8 locations around the Antarctic coast in order to test if the available data preclude the possibility of a dominant Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse IA (mwp-IA). Results based on a subset of 7 spherically symmetric earth viscosity models and 6 different Antarctic deglaciation histories indicate that the sea-level data do not rule out a large Antarctic source for this event. Our preliminary analysis indicates that the Weddell Sea is the most likely source region for a large (˜9 m) Antarctic contribution to mwp-IA. The Ross Sea is also plausible as a significant contributor (˜5 m) from a sea-level perspective, but glacio-geological field observations are not compatible with such a large and rapid melt from this region. Our results suggest that the Lambert Glacier component of the East Antarctic ice sheet experienced significant retreat at the time of mwp-IA, but only contributed ˜0.15 m (eustatic sea-level change). All of the ice models considered under-predicted the isostatic component of the sea-level response in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Sôya Coast region of the East Antarctic ice sheet, indicating that the maximum ice thickness in these regions is underestimated. It is therefore plausible that ice melt from these areas, the Antarctic Peninsula in particular, could have made a significant contribution to mwp-IA.

Projecting future sea level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

2006-01-01

California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and geometry of these structures. Rising sea levels from climate change will increase the frequency and duration of extreme high water levels, causing historical coastal and San Francisco Bay/Delta structure design criteria to be exceeded.

Proceedings of the Coastal Benthic Boundary Layer Key West Workshop

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-06-24

depth are controlled by climatic changes which affect sea level and result in vastly different sedimentary regimes. After several hours of discussion...benthic boundary layer. EOS 75: 201- 206. Tom S.J. and Richardson M.D. (1996) The Key West campaign. Sea Technology 36:17-25. 6 Mi : VA1 I I AI T0. 03 a -1Z...reflectors appear to be unconformable surfaces based on the presence of karst, and probably represent erosion and cementation during sea -level lowstands

GIA modelling of the Hanish and Camarinal Sills to generate isostatic corrections for continuous sea level curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Felicity; Tamisiea, Mark E.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Grant, Katharine M.

2014-05-01

Submarine sills are critical points that regulate the exchange flow between enclosed basins and the open ocean. Isostatic modelling of two sills is presented: The Hanish Sill, which regulates exchange between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, and the Camarinal Sill which performs a similar function between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. A 244 kyr ice history, based on the of the ICE-5G global ice model is used, and a spherically symmetrical, viscoelastic earth is parameterised over three lithospheric thicknesses and a range of upper and lower mantle viscosities. Though the sills are in geologically different settings, with one sill on the basin side, and one sill on the ocean side of the narrowest passage, the relative sea level response is strikingly similar. We determine that in each case, while the offset between relative and global mean sea level is not constant over time, it roughly scales proportionally with land-ice variations such that an estimation of global mean sea level, and thus global ice volume, can be recovered from continuous sea level curves generated at these sills. The relationship between global mean sea level (ESL) and relative sea level (RSL) at the Camarinal Sill can be expressed as ESL=1.23(±0.08)RSL +0.5(±1.9) with errors expressed at two standard deviations. The Hanish Sill response, which displays greater sensitivity to duration of interglacial, is better characterised by two equations which describe an envelope of possible behaviour dependent on phase of glaciation (ESL=1.13RSL +8.5) or deglaciation (ESL=1.24RSL -9.0).

HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

2017-12-01

The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

2017-01-01

The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

Internet-based Modeling, Mapping, and Analysis for the Greater Everglades (IMMAGE; Version 1.0): web-based tools to assess the impact of sea level rise in south Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hearn, Paul; Strong, David; Swain, Eric; Decker, Jeremy

2013-01-01

South Florida's Greater Everglades area is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, due to its rich endowment of animal and plant species and its heavily populated urban areas along the coast. Rising sea levels are expected to have substantial impacts on inland flooding, the depth and extent of surge from coastal storms, the degradation of water supplies by saltwater intrusion, and the integrity of plant and animal habitats. Planners and managers responsible for mitigating these impacts require advanced tools to help them more effectively identify areas at risk. The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Internet-based Modeling, Mapping, and Analysis for the Greater Everglades (IMMAGE) Web site has been developed to address these needs by providing more convenient access to projections from models that forecast the effects of sea level rise on surface water and groundwater, the extent of surge and resulting economic losses from coastal storms, and the distribution of habitats. IMMAGE not only provides an advanced geographic information system (GIS) interface to support decision making, but also includes topic-based modules that explain and illustrate key concepts for nontechnical users. The purpose of this report is to familiarize both technical and nontechnical users with the IMMAGE Web site and its various applications.

IInvestigations of space-time variability of the sea level in the Barents Sea and the White Sea by satellite altimetry data and results of hydrodynamic modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebedev, S. A.; Zilberstein, O. I.; Popov, S. K.; Tikhonova, O. V.

2003-04-01

The problem of retrieving of the sea level anomalies in the Barents and White Seas from satellite can be considered as two different problems. The first one is to calculate the anomalies of sea level along the trek taking into account all amendments including tidal heights. The second one is to obtain of fields of the sea level anomalies on the grid over one cycle of the exact repeat altimetry mission. Experience results show that there is preferable to use the regional tidal model for calculating tidal heights. To construct of the anomalies fields of the sea level during the exact repeat mission (cycle 35 days for ERS-1 and ERS-2), when a density of the coverage of the area of water of the Barents and White Seas by satellite measurements achieves maximum. It is necessary to solve the problem of the error minimum. This error is based by the temporal difference of the measurements over one cycle and by the specific of the hydrodynamic regime of the both seas (tidal, storm surge variations, tidal currents). To solve this problem it is assumed to use the results of the hydrodynamic modeling. The error minimum is preformed by the regression of the model results and satellite measurements. As a version it is considered the possibility of the utilizing of the neuronet obtained by the model results to construct maps of the sea level anomalies. The comparison of the model results and the calculation of the satellite altimetry variability of the sea level of Barents and White Seas shows a good coincidence between them. The satellite altimetry data of ERS-1/2 and TOPEX/POSEIDON of Ocean Altimeter Pathfinder Project (NASA/GSFC) has been used in this study. Results of the regional tidal model computations and three dimensional baroclinic model created in the Hydrometeocenter have been used as well. This study also exploited the atmosphere date of the Project REANALYSIS. The research was undertaken with partial support from the Russian Basic Research Foundation (Project No. 01-07-90106).

Analysis of Groundwater Anomalies Estimated by GRACE and GLDAS Satellite-based Hydrological Model in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotfata, A.; Ambinakudige, S.

2017-12-01

Coastal regions face a higher risk of flooding. A rise in sea-level increases flooding chances in low-lying areas. A major concern is the effect of sea-level rise on the depth of the fresh water/salt water interface in the aquifers of the coastal regions. A sea-level change rise impacts the hydrological system of the aquifers. Salt water intrusion into fresh water aquifers increase water table levels. Flooding prone areas in the coast are at a higher risk of salt water intrusion. The Gulf coast is one of the most vulnerable flood areas due to its natural weather patterns. There is not yet a local assessment of the relation between groundwater level and sea-level rising. This study investigates the projected sea-level rise models and the anomalous groundwater level during January 2002 to December 2016. We used the NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) satellite data in the analysis. We accounted the leakage error and the measurement error in GRACE data. GLDAS data was used to calculate the groundwater storage from the total water storage estimated using GRACE data (ΔGW=ΔTWS (soil moisture, surface water, groundwater, and canopy water) - ΔGLDAS (soil moisture, surface water, and canopy water)). The preliminary results indicate that the total water storage is increasing in parts of the Gulf of Mexico. GRACE data show high soil wetness and groundwater levels in Mississippi, Alabama and Texas coasts. Because sea-level rise increases the probability of flooding in the Gulf coast and affects the groundwater, we will analyze probable interactions between sea-level rise and groundwater in the study area. To understand regional sea-level rise patterns, we will investigate GRACE Ocean data along the Gulf coasts. We will quantify ocean total water storage, its salinity, and its relationship with the groundwater level variations in the Gulf coast.

Measuring the Rate of Change in Sea Level and Its Adherence to USACE Sea Level Rise Planning Scenarios Using Timeseries Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Huang, N.; Huber, M.; Veatch, W.; Moritz, H.; Obrien, P. S.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

In 2013, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) issued guidance for all Civil Works activities to incorporate the effects of sea level change as described in three distinct planning scenarios.[1] These planning scenarios provided a useful framework to incorporate these effects into Civil Works activities, but required the manual calculation of these scenarios for a given gage and set of datum. To address this need, USACE developed the Sea Level Change Curve Calculator (SLCCC) in 2014 which provided a "simple, web-based tool to provide repeatable analytical results."[2]USACE has been developing a successor to the SLCCC application which retains the same, intuitive functionality to calculate these planning scenarios, but it also allows the comparison of actual sea level change between 1992 and today against the projections, and builds on the user's ability to understand the rate of change using a variety of timeseries metrics (e.g. moving averages, trends) and related visualizations. These new metrics help both illustrate and measure the complexity and nuances of sea level change. [1] ER 1000-2-8162. http://www.publications.usace.army.mil/Portals/76/Publications/EngineerRegulations/ER_1100-2-8162.pdf. [2] SLCC Manual. http://www.corpsclimate.us/docs/SLC_Calculator_Manual_2014_88.pdf.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Friess, Daniel A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Krauss, Ken W.; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L.; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

2015-01-01

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world’s mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Lovelock, Catherine E; Cahoon, Donald R; Friess, Daniel A; Guntenspergen, Glenn R; Krauss, Ken W; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

2015-10-22

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

Modeling vegetation community responses to sea-level rise on Barrier Island systems: A case study on the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex, Florida, USA

PubMed Central

Foster, Tammy E.; Stolen, Eric D.; Hall, Carlton R.; Schaub, Ronald; Duncan, Brean W.; Hunt, Danny K.; Drese, John H.

2017-01-01

Society needs information about how vegetation communities in coastal regions will be impacted by hydrologic changes associated with climate change, particularly sea level rise. Due to anthropogenic influences which have significantly decreased natural coastal vegetation communities, it is important for us to understand how remaining natural communities will respond to sea level rise. The Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex (CCBIC) on the east central coast of Florida is within one of the most biologically diverse estuarine systems in North America and has the largest number of threatened and endangered species on federal property in the contiguous United States. The high level of biodiversity is susceptible to sea level rise. Our objective was to model how vegetation communities along a gradient ranging from hydric to upland xeric on CCBIC will respond to three sea level rise scenarios (0.2 m, 0.4 m, and 1.2 m). We used a probabilistic model of the current relationship between elevation and vegetation community to determine the impact sea level rise would have on these communities. Our model correctly predicted the current proportions of vegetation communities on CCBIC based on elevation. Under all sea level rise scenarios the model predicted decreases in mesic and xeric communities, with the greatest losses occurring in the most xeric communities. Increases in total area of salt marsh were predicted with a 0.2 and 0.4 m rise in sea level. With a 1.2 m rise in sea level approximately half of CCBIC’s land area was predicted to transition to open water. On the remaining land, the proportions of most of the vegetation communities were predicted to remain similar to that of current proportions, but there was a decrease in proportion of the most xeric community (oak scrub) and an increase in the most hydric community (salt marsh). Our approach provides a first approximation of the impacts of sea level rise on terrestrial vegetation communities, including important xeric upland communities, as a foundation for management decisions and future modeling. PMID:28796807

Adriatic storm surges and related cross-basin sea-level slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Međugorac, Iva; Orlić, Mirko; Janeković, Ivica; Pasarić, Zoran; Pasarić, Miroslava

2018-05-01

Storm surges pose a severe threat to the northernmost cities of the Adriatic coast, with Venice being most prone to flooding. It has been noted that some flooding episodes cause significantly different effects along the eastern and western Adriatic coasts, with indications that the difference is related to cross-basin sea-level slope. The present study aims to determine specific atmospheric conditions under which the slope develops and to explore connection with increased sea level along the two coastlines. The analysis is based on sea-level time series recorded at Venice and Bakar over the 1984-2014 interval, from which 38 most intensive storm-surge episodes were selected, and their meteorological backgrounds (ERA-Interim) were studied. The obtained sea-level extremes were grouped into three categories according to their cross-basin sea-level slope: storm surges that slope strongly westward (W type), those that slope eastward (E type) and ordinary storm surges (O type). Results show that the slope is controlled by wind action only, specifically, by the wind component towards a particular coast and by the cross-basin shear of along-basin wind. Meteorological fields were used to force an oceanographic numerical model in order to confirm the empirically established connection between the atmospheric forcing and the slope. Finally, it has been found that the intensity of storm surges along a particular Adriatic coast is determined by an interplay of sea-level slopes in the along and cross-basin directions.

Late mid-Holocene sea-level oscillation: A possible cause

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, D. B.; Collins, E. S.

Sea level oscillated between 5500 and 3500 years ago at Murrells Inlet, South Carolina, Chezzetcook and Baie Verte, Nova Scotia and Montmagny, Quebec. The oscillation is well constrained by foraminiferal marsh zonations in three locations and by diatoms in the fourth one. The implications are: (1) there was a eustatic sea-level oscillation of about 2-10 m in the late mid-Holocene on the southeast coast of North America (South Carolina to Quebec) that is not predicted by present geophysical models of relative sea-level change; (2) this oscillation coincides with oceanographic cooling on the east coast of Canada that we associate with melting ice; and (3) this sea- level oscillation/climatic event coincides exactly with the end of pyramid building in Egypt which is suggested to have resulted from a climate change (i.e. drought, cooling). This sea-level/climatic change is a prime example of feedback where climatic warming in the mid-Holocene promoted ice melt in the Arctic which subsequently caused climatic cooling by opening up Arctic channels releasing cold water into the Inner Labrador Current that continued to intensify until 4000 years ago. This sea-level event may also be the best way of measuring when the final ice melted since most estimates of the ages of the last melting are based on end moraine dates in the Arctic which may not coincide with when the last ice actually melted out, since there is no way of dating the final ice positions.

Soil organic matter decomposition follows plant productivity response to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Peter; Jensen, Kai; Megonigal, James Patrick

2015-04-01

The accumulation of soil organic matter (SOM) is an important mechanism for many tidal wetlands to keep pace with sea-level rise. SOM accumulation is governed by the rates of production and decomposition of organic matter. While plant productivity responses to sea-level rise are well understood, far less is known about the response of SOM decomposition to accelerated sea-level rise. Here we quantified the effects of sea-level rise on SOM decomposition by exposing planted and unplanted tidal marsh monoliths to experimentally manipulated flood duration. The study was performed in a field-based mesocosm facility at the Smithsonian Global Change Research Wetland, a micro tidal brackish marsh in Maryland, US. SOM decomposition was quantified as CO2 efflux, with plant- and SOM-derived CO2 separated using a stable carbon isotope approach. Despite the dogma that decomposition rates are inversely related to flooding, SOM mineralization was not sensitive to varying flood duration over a 35 cm range in surface elevation in unplanted mesocoms. In the presence of plants, decomposition rates were strongly and positively related to aboveground biomass (p≤0.01, R2≥0.59). We conclude that rates of soil carbon loss through decomposition are driven by plant responses to sea level in this intensively studied tidal marsh. If our result applies more generally to tidal wetlands, it has important implications for modeling carbon sequestration and marsh accretion in response to accelerated sea-level rise.

Assessing sea-level rise impact on saltwater intrusion into the root zone of a geo-typical area in coastal east-central Florida.

PubMed

Xiao, Han; Wang, Dingbao; Medeiros, Stephen C; Hagen, Scott C; Hall, Carlton R

2018-07-15

Saltwater intrusion (SWI) into root zone in low-lying coastal areas can affect the survival and spatial distribution of various vegetation species by altering plant communities and the wildlife habitats they support. In this study, a baseline model was developed based on FEMWATER to simulate the monthly variation of root zone salinity of a geo-typical area located at the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island Complex (CCBIC) of coastal east-central Florida (USA) in 2010. Based on the developed and calibrated baseline model, three diagnostic FEMWATER models were developed to predict the extent of SWI into root zone by modifying the boundary values representing the rising sea level based on various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios projected for 2080. The simulation results indicated that the extent of SWI would be insignificant if SLR is either low (23.4cm) or intermediate (59.0cm), but would be significant if SLR is high (119.5cm) in that infiltration/diffusion of overtopping seawater in coastal low-lying areas can greatly increase root zone salinity level, since the sand dunes may fail to prevent the landward migration of seawater because the waves of the rising sea level can reach and pass over the crest under high (119.5cm) SLR scenario. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Applegate, Patrick J.; Keller, Klaus

2015-08-01

Albedo modification (AM) is sometimes characterized as a potential means of avoiding climate threshold responses, including large-scale ice sheet mass loss. Previous work has investigated the effects of AM on total sea-level rise over the present century, as well as AM’s ability to reduce long-term (≫103 yr) contributions to sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). These studies have broken new ground, but neglect important feedbacks in the GIS system, or are silent on AM’s effectiveness over the short time scales that may be most relevant for decision-making (<103 yr). Here, we assess AM’s ability to reduce GIS sea-level contributions over decades to centuries, using a simplified ice sheet model. We drive this model using a business-as-usual base temperature forcing scenario, as well as scenarios that reflect AM-induced temperature stabilization or temperature drawdown. Our model results suggest that (i) AM produces substantial near-term reductions in the rate of GIS-driven sea-level rise. However, (ii) sea-level rise contributions from the GIS continue after AM begins. These continued sea level rise contributions persist for decades to centuries after temperature stabilization and temperature drawdown begin, unless AM begins in the next few decades. Moreover, (iii) any regrowth of the GIS is delayed by decades or centuries after temperature drawdown begins, and is slow compared to pre-AM rates of mass loss. Combined with recent work that suggests AM would not prevent mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, our results provide a nuanced picture of AM’s possible effects on future sea-level rise.

Tropical tales of polar ice: evidence of Last Interglacial polar ice sheet retreat recorded by fossil reefs of the granitic Seychelles islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, Andrea; Webster, Jody M.; Zwartz, Dan; Lambeck, Kurt; Wohlfarth, Barbara

2015-01-01

In the search for a record of eustatic sea level change on glacial-interglacial timescales, the Seychelles ranks as one of the best places on the planet to study. Owing to its location with respect to the former margins of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets that wax and wane on orbital cycles, the local-or relative-sea level history is predicted to lie within a few meters of the globally averaged eustatic signal during the Last Interglacial period. We have surveyed and dated Last Interglacial fossil corals to ascertain peak sea level and hence infer maximum retreat of polar ice sheets during this time interval. We observe a pattern of gradually rising sea level in the Seychelles between ˜129 and 125 thousand years ago (ka), with peak eustatic sea level attained after 125 ka at 7.6 ± 1.7 m higher than present. After accounting for thermal expansion and loss of mountain glaciers, this sea-level budget would require ˜5-8 m of polar ice sheet contribution, relative to today's volume, of which only ˜2 m came from the Greenland ice sheet. This result clearly identifies the Antarctic ice sheet as a significant source of melt water, most likely derived from one of the unstable, marine-based sectors in the West and/or East Antarctic ice sheet. Furthermore, the establishment of a +5.9 ± 1.7 m eustatic sea level position by 128.6 ± 0.8 ka would require that partial AIS collapse was coincident with the onset of the sea level highstand.

Relationships between lake-level changes and water and salt budgets in the Dead Sea during extreme aridities in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiro, Yael; Goldstein, Steven L.; Garcia-Veigas, Javier; Levy, Elan; Kushnir, Yochanan; Stein, Mordechai; Lazar, Boaz

2017-04-01

Thick halite intervals recovered by the Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project cores show evidence for severely arid climatic conditions in the eastern Mediterranean during the last three interglacials. In particular, the core interval corresponding to the peak of the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e or MIS 5e) contains ∼30 m of salt over 85 m of core length, making this the driest known period in that region during the late Quaternary. This study reconstructs Dead Sea lake levels during the salt deposition intervals, based on water and salt budgets derived from the Dead Sea brine composition and the amount of salt in the core. Modern water and salt budgets indicate that halite precipitates only during declining lake levels, while the amount of dissolved Na+ and Cl- accumulates during wetter intervals. Based on the compositions of Dead Sea brines from pore waters and halite fluid inclusions, we estimate that ∼12-16 cm of halite precipitated per meter of lake-level drop. During periods of halite precipitation, the Mg2+ concentration increases and the Na+/Cl- ratio decreases in the lake. Our calculations indicate major lake-level drops of ∼170 m from lake levels of 320 and 310 m below sea level (mbsl) down to lake levels of ∼490 and ∼480 mbsl, during MIS 5e and the Holocene, respectively. These lake levels are much lower than typical interglacial lake levels of around 400 mbsl. These lake-level drops occurred as a result of major decreases in average fresh water runoff, to ∼40% of the modern value (pre-1964, before major fresh water diversions), reflecting severe droughts during which annual precipitation in Jerusalem was lower than 350 mm/y, compared to ∼600 mm/y today. Nevertheless, even during salt intervals, the changes in halite facies and the occurrence of alternating periods of halite and detritus in the Dead Sea core stratigraphy reflect fluctuations between drier and wetter conditions around our estimated average. The halite intervals include periods that are richer and poorer in halite, indicating (based on the sedimentation rate) that severe dry conditions with water availability as low as ∼20% of the present day, continued for periods of decades to centuries, and fluctuated with wetter conditions that spanned centuries to millennia when water availability was ∼50-100% of the present day. These conclusions have potential implications for the coming decades, as climate models predict greater aridity in the region.

Climate And Sea Level: It's In Our Hands Now

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turrin, M.; Bell, R. E.; Ryan, W. B. F.

2014-12-01

Changes in sea level are measurable on both a local and a global scale providing an accessible way to connect climate to education, yet engaging teachers and students with the complex science that is behind the change in sea level can be a challenge. Deciding how much should be included and just how it should be introduced in any single classroom subject area can be an obstacle for a teacher. The Sea Level Rise Polar Explorer App developed through the PoLAR CCEP grant offers a guided tour through the many layers of science that impact sea level rise. This map-based data-rich app is framed around a series of questions that move the user through map layers with just the level of complexity they chose to explore. For a quick look teachers and students can review a 3 or 4 sentence introduction on how the given map links to sea level and then launch straight into the interactive touchable map. For a little more in depth look they can listen to (or read) a one-minute recorded background on the data displayed in the map prior to launching in. For those who want more in depth understanding they can click to a one page background piece on the topic with links to further visualizations, videos and data. Regardless of the level of complexity selected each map is composed of clickable data allowing the user to fully explore the science. The different options for diving in allow teachers to differentiate the learning for either the subject being taught or the user level of the student group. The map layers also include a range of complexities. Basic questions like "What is sea level?" talk about shorelines, past sea levels and elevations beneath the sea. Questions like "Why does sea level change?" includes slightly more complex issues like the role of ocean temperature, and how that differs from ocean heat content. And what is the role of the warming atmosphere in sea level change? Questions about "What about sea level in the past?" can bring challenges for students who have difficulty with time scales, but sections on "Who is Vulnerable?" are very tangible to the students as they look at maps of population density, ocean island populations in danger of submersion, and what regions are most vulnerable to flooding. Teachers and students alike can explore a wealth of authentic science data in an engaging and accessible way.

ENSURF: multi-model sea level forecast - implementation and validation results for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, B.; Brower, R.; Beckers, J.; Paradis, D.; Balseiro, C.; Lyons, K.; Cure, M.; Sotillo, M. G.; Hacket, B.; Verlaan, M.; Alvarez Fanjul, E.

2011-04-01

ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast that makes use of existing storm surge or circulation models today operational in Europe, as well as near-real time tide gauge data in the region, with the following main goals: - providing an easy access to existing forecasts, as well as to its performance and model validation, by means of an adequate visualization tool - generation of better forecasts of sea level, including confidence intervals, by means of the Bayesian Model Average Technique (BMA) The system was developed and implemented within ECOOP (C.No. 036355) European Project for the NOOS and the IBIROOS regions, based on MATROOS visualization tool developed by Deltares. Both systems are today operational at Deltares and Puertos del Estado respectively. The Bayesian Modelling Average technique generates an overall forecast probability density function (PDF) by making a weighted average of the individual forecasts PDF's; the weights represent the probability that a model will give the correct forecast PDF and are determined and updated operationally based on the performance of the models during a recent training period. This implies the technique needs the availability of sea level data from tide gauges in near-real time. Results of validation of the different models and BMA implementation for the main harbours will be presented for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions, where this kind of activity is performed for the first time. The work has proved to be useful to detect problems in some of the circulation models not previously well calibrated with sea level data, to identify the differences on baroclinic and barotropic models for sea level applications and to confirm the general improvement of the BMA forecasts.

Correlated environmental corrections in TOPEX/POSEIDON, with a note on ionospheric accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zlotnicki, V.

1994-01-01

Estimates of the effectiveness of an altimetric correction, and interpretation of sea level variability as a response to atmospheric forcing, both depend upon assuming that residual errors in altimetric corrections are uncorrelated among themselves and with residual sea level, or knowing the correlations. Not surprisingly, many corrections are highly correlated since they involve atmospheric properties and the ocean surface's response to them. The full corrections (including their geographically varying time mean values), show correlations between electromagnetic bias (mostly the height of wind waves) and either atmospheric pressure or water vapor of -40%, and between atmospheric pressure and water vapor of 28%. In the more commonly used collinear differences (after removal of the geographically varying time mean), atmospheric pressure and wave height show a -30% correlation, atmospheric pressure and water vapor a -10% correlation, both pressure and water vapor a 7% correlation with residual sea level, and a bit surprisingly, ionospheric electron content and wave height a 15% correlation. Only the ocean tide is totally uncorrelated with other corrections or residual sea level. The effectiveness of three ionospheric corrections (TOPEX dual-frequency, a smoothed version of the TOPEX dual-frequency, and Doppler orbitography and radiopositioning integrated by satellite (DORIS) is also evaluated in terms of their reduction in variance of residual sea level. Smooth (90-200 km along-track) versions of the dual-frequency altimeter ionosphere perform best both globally and within 20 deg in latitude from the equator. The noise variance in the 1/s TOPEX inospheric samples is approximately (11 mm) squared, about the same as noise in the DORIS-based correction; however, the latter has its error over scales of order 10(exp 3) km. Within 20 deg of the equator, the DORIS-based correction adds (14 mm) squared to the residual sea level variance.

Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

2015-01-22

Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jie; Fu, Xinyu; Gu, Yue; Deng, Yujun; Peng, Zhong-Ren

2017-03-01

Coastal regions become unprecedentedly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. The purpose of this paper is therefore to simulate prospective urban exposure to changing sea levels. This article first applied the cellular-automaton-based SLEUTH model (Project Gigalopolis, 2016) to calibrate historical urban dynamics in Bay County, Florida (USA) - a region that is greatly threatened by rising sea levels. This paper estimated five urban growth parameters by multiple-calibration procedures that used different Monte Carlo iterations to account for modeling uncertainties. It then employed the calibrated model to predict three scenarios of urban growth up to 2080 - historical trend, urban sprawl, and compact development. We also assessed land use impacts of four policies: no regulations; flood mitigation plans based on the whole study region and on those areas that are prone to experience growth; and the protection of conservational lands. This study lastly overlaid projected urban areas in 2030 and 2080 with 500-year flooding maps that were developed under 0, 0.2, and 0.9 m sea level rise. The calibration results that a substantial number of built-up regions extend from established coastal settlements. The predictions suggest that total flooded area of new urbanized regions in 2080 would be more than 25 times that under the flood mitigation policy, if the urbanization progresses with few policy interventions. The joint model generates new knowledge in the domain between land use modeling and sea level rise. It contributes to coastal spatial planning by helping develop hazard mitigation schemes and can be employed in other international communities that face combined pressure of urban growth and climate change.

Towards uncertainty estimation for operational forecast products - a multi-model-ensemble approach for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golbeck, Inga; Li, Xin; Janssen, Frank

2014-05-01

Several independent operational ocean models provide forecasts of the ocean state (e.g. sea level, temperature, salinity and ice cover) in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on a daily basis. These forecasts are the primary source of information for a variety of information and emergency response systems used e.g. to issue sea level warnings or carry out oil drift forecast. The forecasts are of course highly valuable as such, but often suffer from a lack of information on their uncertainty. With the aim of augmenting the existing operational ocean forecasts in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea by a measure of uncertainty a multi-model-ensemble (MME) system for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and water transports has been set up in the framework of the MyOcean-2 project. Members of MyOcean-2, the NOOS² and HIROMB/BOOS³ communities provide 48h-forecasts serving as inputs. Different variables are processed separately due to their different physical characteristics. Based on the so far collected daily MME products of SST and SSS, a statistical method, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to assess their spatial and temporal variability. For sea surface currents, progressive vector diagrams at specific points are consulted to estimate the performance of the circulation models especially in hydrodynamic important areas, e.g. inflow/outflow of the Baltic Sea, Norwegian trench and English Channel. For further versions of the MME system, it is planned to extend the MME to other variables like e.g. sea level, ocean currents or ice cover based on the needs of the model providers and their customers. It is also planned to include in-situ data to augment the uncertainty information and for validation purposes. Additionally, weighting methods will be implemented into the MME system to develop more complex uncertainty measures. The methodology used to create the MME will be outlined and different ensemble products will be presented. In addition, some preliminary results based on the statistical analysis of the uncertainty measures provide first estimates of the regional and temporal performance of the ocean models for each parameter. ²Northwest European Shelf Operational Oceanography System ³High-resolution Operational Model of the Baltic / Baltic Operational Oceanographic System

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.

PubMed

Dahl, Kristina A; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001-2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

Temperature rise, sea level rise and increased radiative forcing - an application of cointegration methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmith, Torben; Thejll, Peter; Johansen, Søren

2016-04-01

We analyse the statistical relationship between changes in global temperature, global steric sea level and radiative forcing in order to reveal causal relationships. There are in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We therefore apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis, originating from the field of econometrics, which is able to correctly handle the analysis of series with trends and other long-range dependencies. Further, we find a relationship between steric sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the steric sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. This result is obtained both when analyzing observed data and data from a CMIP5 historical model run. Finally, we find that in the data from the historical run, the steric sea level, in turn, is driven by the external forcing. Finally, we demonstrate that combining these two results can lead to a novel estimate of radiative forcing back in time based on observations.

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

PubMed Central

Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years. PMID:28158209

Sea level and ground water table depth (WTD): A biogeochemical pacemaker for glacial-interglacial cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowling, S. A.

2016-11-01

The role that changes in sea level have on potential carbon-climate feedbacks are discussed as a potential contributing mechanism for terminating glacial periods. Focus will be on coastal wetlands because these systems can be substantially altered by changing sea level and ground water table depth (WTD); in addition to being important moderators of the exchange of nutrients and energy between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. A hypothesis is outlined that describes how the release of carbon from formerly anaerobic wetland soils and sediments can influence climate when sea levels begin to decline. As ground WTD deepens and eventually recedes from the surface, coastal wetland basins may become isolated from their belowground source of water. With their primary source of base flow removed, coastal wetlands likely dried up, promoting decomposition of the carbon compounds buried in their sediments. Depending on the timing of basin isolation and the timing of decomposition, glacial sea level lows could have triggered a relatively large positive carbon feedback on climate warming, just at the time when a new interglacial period is about to begin.

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

2018-04-01

Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

Atmospherically-driven collapse of a marine-based ice stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenwood, S. L.; Clason, C. C.

2016-12-01

Marine-terminating glaciers and the sectors of ice sheets that are grounded below sea level are widely considered to be vulnerable to unstable retreat. The southern sector of the retreating Fennoscandian Ice Sheet comprised a large, aqueous-terminating ice sheet catchment grounded well below sea level throughout its deglaciation. However, the behaviour, timing of and controls upon ice sheet retreat through the Baltic and Bothnian basins have thus far been inferred only indirectly from peripheral, terrestrial-based geological archives. Recent acquisition of high-resolution multibeam bathymetry opens these basins up, for the first time, to direct investigation of their glacial footprint and palaeo-ice sheet behaviour. Multibeam data reveal a rich glacial landform legacy of the Bothnian Sea deglaciation. A late-stage palaeo-ice stream formed a narrow corridor of fast flow. Its pathway is overprinted by a vast field of basal crevasse squeeze ridges, while abundant traces of high subglacial meltwater volumes call for considerable input of surface meltwater to the subglacial system. We interpret a short-lived ice stream event under high extension, precipitating large-scale hydrofracture-driven collapse of the ice sheet sector under conditions of high surface melting. Experiments with a physically-based numerical flowline model indicate that the rate and pattern of Bothnian Sea ice stream retreat are most sensitive to surface mass balance change and crevasse propagation, while remarkably insensitive to submarine melting and sea level change. We interpret strongly atmospherically-driven retreat of this marine-based ice sheet sector.

Changing Sea Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugh, David

2004-04-01

Flooding of coastal communities is one of the major causes of environmental disasters world-wide. This textbook explains how sea levels are affected by astronomical tides, weather effects, ocean circulation and climate trends. Based on courses taught by the author in the U.K. and the U.S., it is aimed at undergraduate students at all levels, with non-basic mathematics being confined to Appendices and a website http://publishing.cambridge.org/resources/0521532183/.

Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

2006-04-15

Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

Modeling tidal marsh distribution with sea-level rise: evaluating the role of vegetation, sediment, and upland habitat in marsh resiliency.

PubMed

Schile, Lisa M; Callaway, John C; Morris, James T; Stralberg, Diana; Parker, V Thomas; Kelly, Maggi

2014-01-01

Tidal marshes maintain elevation relative to sea level through accumulation of mineral and organic matter, yet this dynamic accumulation feedback mechanism has not been modeled widely in the context of accelerated sea-level rise. Uncertainties exist about tidal marsh resiliency to accelerated sea-level rise, reduced sediment supply, reduced plant productivity under increased inundation, and limited upland habitat for marsh migration. We examined marsh resiliency under these uncertainties using the Marsh Equilibrium Model, a mechanistic, elevation-based soil cohort model, using a rich data set of plant productivity and physical properties from sites across the estuarine salinity gradient. Four tidal marshes were chosen along this gradient: two islands and two with adjacent uplands. Varying century sea-level rise (52, 100, 165, 180 cm) and suspended sediment concentrations (100%, 50%, and 25% of current concentrations), we simulated marsh accretion across vegetated elevations for 100 years, applying the results to high spatial resolution digital elevation models to quantify potential changes in marsh distributions. At low rates of sea-level rise and mid-high sediment concentrations, all marshes maintained vegetated elevations indicative of mid/high marsh habitat. With century sea-level rise at 100 and 165 cm, marshes shifted to low marsh elevations; mid/high marsh elevations were found only in former uplands. At the highest century sea-level rise and lowest sediment concentrations, the island marshes became dominated by mudflat elevations. Under the same sediment concentrations, low salinity brackish marshes containing highly productive vegetation had slower elevation loss compared to more saline sites with lower productivity. A similar trend was documented when comparing against a marsh accretion model that did not model vegetation feedbacks. Elevation predictions using the Marsh Equilibrium Model highlight the importance of including vegetation responses to sea-level rise. These results also emphasize the importance of adjacent uplands for long-term marsh survival and incorporating such areas in conservation planning efforts.

Holocene sea-level changes in King George Island, West Antarctica, by virtue of geomorphological coastal evidences and diatom assemblages of sediment sections.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poleshchuk, Ksenia; Verkulich, Sergey; Pushina, Zina; Jozhikov, Ilya

2015-04-01

A new curve of relative sea-level change is presented for the Fildes peninsula, King George Island, West Antarctic. This work is based on renewed paleogeography data, including coastal geomorphological evidence, diatom assemblages of lakes bottom sediments and radiocarbon datings of organics. The new data were obtained in several sections of quaternary sediments and groups of terraces, and allows us to expand and improve relevant conception about relative sea level changes in the King George Island region. The new radiocarbon datings of organics (mosses and shells) allows reconstructing Holocene conditions that maintain and cause the sea-level changes. Sea diatom assemblages of Dlinnoye lake bottom sediment core (that complies period about 8000 years B.P.) mark altitude of marine water penetrated into the lake. The altitudes of shell remains, which have certain life habits and expect specific salinity and depth conditions, coupled with their absolute datings, indicate the probable elevation of the past sea level. The Mid-Holocene marine transgression reached its maximum level of 18-20 m by 5760 years B.P. The transgression influenced the deglaciation of the Fildes peninsula and environment conditions integrally. The ratio of glacio-isostatic adjustment velocity and Holocene transgression leaded to the decrease of relative sea level during the Late Holocene excluding the short period of rising between 2000 and 1300 years B.P. Comparing this data with the curve for Bunger oasis, East Antarctica, introduced earlier gives an interesting result. Despite the maximum altitudes of relative sea-level rise in King George region were higher and occurred later than in Bunger oasis region, the short-term period of Late Holocene sea-level rising contemporizes. Besides that, this work allow to realize a correlation between regions of Antarctica and adjacent territory. That, in turn, lets answer the question of tectonic and eustatic factors ratio and their contribution to the Holocene transgression in different regions.

Correcting for initial Th in speleothems to obtain the age of calcite nucleation after a growth hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, D. A.; Nita, D. C.; Moseley, G. E.; Hoffmann, D. L.; Standish, C. D.; Smart, P. L.; Edwards, R.

2013-12-01

In addition to the many U-Th dated speleothem records (δ18O δ13C, trace elements) of past environmental change based on continuous phases of calcite growth, discontinuous records also provide important constraints for a wide range of past states of the Earth system, including sea levels, permafrost extent, regional aridity and local cave flooding. Chronological information about human activity or faunal evolution can also be obtained where calcite can be seen to overlie cave art or mammalian bones, for example. Among the important considerations when determining the U-Th age of calcite that nucleates on an exposed surface are (1) initial 230Th/232Th, which can be elevated and variable in some settings, and (2) growth rate and sub-sample density, where extrapolation is required. By way of example, we present sea level data based on U-Th ages of vadose speleothems (i.e. formed above the water table and distinct from 'phreatic' examples) from caves of the circum-Caribbean , where calcite growth was interrupted by rising sea levels and then reinitiated after regression. These estimates demand large corrections and derived sea level constraints are compared with alternative data from coral reef terraces, phreatic overgrowths on speleothems or indirect, proxy evidence from oxygen isotopes to constrain rates of ice volume growth. Flowstones from the Bahamas provide useful sea level constraints because they present the longest and most continuous records in such settings (a function of preservation potential in addition to hydrological routing) and also earliest growth post-emergence after sea level fall. We revisit estimates for sea level regression at the end of MIS 5 at ~ 80 ka (Richards et al, 1994; Lundberg and Ford, 1994) and make corrections for non-Bulk Earth initial Th contamination (230Th/232Th activity ratio > 10), based on isochron analysis of alternative stalagmites from the same settings and recent high resolution analysis. We also present new U-Th ages for contiguous layers sub-sampled from the first 2-3 mm of flowstone growth after the MIS 5 hiatus, using a sub-sample milling strategy that matches spatial resolution with maximum achievable precision (ThermoFinnigan Neptune MC-ICPMS methodology; 20-30 mg calcite, U = ~ 300 ng.g-1, 2σ age uncertainty is × 600 a at ~80 ka). Isochron methods are used to estimate the range of initial 230Th/232Th ratio and are compared with elevated values obtained from stalagmites from the same cave (Beck et al, 2001; Hoffmann et al, 2010). A similar strategy is presented for a stalagmite with much faster axial growth data, and the data are combined with additional sea level information from the same region to estimate the rate and uncertainty of sea level regression at the MIS stage 5/4 boundary. Elevated initial 230Th/232Th values have also been observed in a stalagmite from 6 m below present sea level in a cenote from the Yucatan, Mexico, where 5 phases of calcite between 10 and 5.5 ka are separated by serpulid worm tubes formed during periods of submergence. The transition between each phase provides constraints on age and elevation of relative sea level, but the former is hampered by the uncertainty of the high initial 230Th/232Th correction. We consider the possible sources of elevated Th ratios: hydrogenous, colloidal and carbonate or other detrital components.

Mercury concentrations in China's coastal waters and implications for fish consumption by vulnerable populations.

PubMed

Tong, Yindong; Wang, Mengzhu; Bu, Xiaoge; Guo, Xin; Lin, Yan; Lin, Huiming; Li, Jing; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

2017-12-01

We assessed mercury (Hg) pollution in China's coastal waters, including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, based on a nationwide dataset from 301 sampling sites. A methylmercury (MeHg) intake model for humans based on the marine food chain and human fish consumption was established to determine the linkage between water pollutants and the pollutant intake by humans. The predicted MeHg concentration in fish from the Bohai Sea was the highest among the four seas included in the study. The MeHg intake through dietary ingestion was dominant for the fish and was considerably higher than the MeHg intake through water respiration. The predicted MeHg concentrations in human blood in the coastal regions of China ranged from 1.37 to 2.77 μg/L for pregnant woman and from 0.43 to 1.00 μg/L for infants, respectively, based on different diet sources. The carnivorous fish consumption advisory for pregnant women was estimated to be 288-654 g per week to maintain MeHg concentrations in human blood at levels below the threshold level (4.4 μg/L established by the US Environmental Protection Agency). With a 50% increase in Hg concentrations in water in the Bohai Sea, the bioaccumulated MeHg concentration (4.5 μg/L) in the fish consumers will be higher than the threshold level. This study demonstrates the importance in controlling Hg pollution in China's coastal waters. An official recommendation guideline for the fish consumption rate and its sources will be necessary for vulnerable populations in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EM Bias-Correction for Ice Thickness and Surface Roughness Retrievals over Rough Deformed Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Gaiser, P. W.; Allard, R.; Posey, P. G.; Hebert, D. A.; Richter-Menge, J.; Polashenski, C. M.

2016-12-01

The very rough ridge sea ice accounts for significant percentage of total ice areas and even larger percentage of total volume. The commonly used Radar altimeter surface detection techniques are empirical in nature and work well only over level/smooth sea ice. Rough sea ice surfaces can modify the return waveforms, resulting in significant Electromagnetic (EM) bias in the estimated surface elevations, and thus large errors in the ice thickness retrievals. To understand and quantify such sea ice surface roughness effects, a combined EM rough surface and volume scattering model was developed to simulate radar returns from the rough sea ice `layer cake' structure. A waveform matching technique was also developed to fit observed waveforms to a physically-based waveform model and subsequently correct the roughness induced EM bias in the estimated freeboard. This new EM Bias Corrected (EMBC) algorithm was able to better retrieve surface elevations and estimate the surface roughness parameter simultaneously. In situ data from multi-instrument airborne and ground campaigns were used to validate the ice thickness and surface roughness retrievals. For the surface roughness retrievals, we applied this EMBC algorithm to co-incident LiDAR/Radar measurements collected during a Cryosat-2 under-flight by the NASA IceBridge missions. Results show that not only does the waveform model fit very well to the measured radar waveform, but also the roughness parameters derived independently from the LiDAR and radar data agree very well for both level and deformed sea ice. For sea ice thickness retrievals, validation based on in-situ data from the coordinated CRREL/NRL field campaign demonstrates that the physically-based EMBC algorithm performs fundamentally better than the empirical algorithm over very rough deformed sea ice, suggesting that sea ice surface roughness effects can be modeled and corrected based solely on the radar return waveforms.

The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becherer, Johannes; Hofstede, Jacobus; Gräwe, Ulf; Purkiani, Kaveh; Schulz, Elisabeth; Burchard, Hans

2018-01-01

The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010-2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.

Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M.

2014-02-13

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lentz, Erika E.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gesch, Dean B.; Horton, Radley M.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

Response of the Great Barrier Reef to sea-level and environmental changes over the past 30,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, Jody M.; Braga, Juan Carlos; Humblet, Marc; Potts, Donald C.; Iryu, Yasufumi; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Fujita, Kazuhiko; Bourillot, Raphael; Esat, Tezer M.; Fallon, Stewart; Thompson, William G.; Thomas, Alexander L.; Kan, Hironobu; McGregor, Helen V.; Hinestrosa, Gustavo; Obrochta, Stephen P.; Lougheed, Bryan C.

2018-06-01

Previous drilling through submerged fossil coral reefs has greatly improved our understanding of the general pattern of sea-level change since the Last Glacial Maximum, however, how reefs responded to these changes remains uncertain. Here we document the evolution of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the world's largest reef system, to major, abrupt environmental changes over the past 30 thousand years based on comprehensive sedimentological, biological and geochronological records from fossil reef cores. We show that reefs migrated seaward as sea level fell to its lowest level during the most recent glaciation ( 20.5-20.7 thousand years ago (ka)), then landward as the shelf flooded and ocean temperatures increased during the subsequent deglacial period ( 20-10 ka). Growth was interrupted by five reef-death events caused by subaerial exposure or sea-level rise outpacing reef growth. Around 10 ka, the reef drowned as the sea level continued to rise, flooding more of the shelf and causing a higher sediment flux. The GBR's capacity for rapid lateral migration at rates of 0.2-1.5 m yr-1 (and the ability to recruit locally) suggest that, as an ecosystem, the GBR has been more resilient to past sea-level and temperature fluctuations than previously thought, but it has been highly sensitive to increased sediment input over centennial-millennial timescales.

Shelf width and river base level on active margins controlled by a combination of eustasy and local uplift rate, illustration from the Pacific NW of the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malatesta, L. C.; Finnegan, N. J.; Kushwaha, G.

2017-12-01

Sea level defines the elevation where wave-base erosion is the dominant erosive process. Hence, submarine erosion of the margin and creation of a continental shelf depend on the time distribution of sea level relative to bedrock by correcting eustasy for local rock uplift. Eustasy and wave-base erosion also impact most fluvial systems on Earth by affecting the vertical and lateral position of their lower boundary condition, the coastline. When uplift rate is slow, the concentration of wave-base erosion on a restricted range of elevation promotes the creation of wide shelves and of a relatively stable average base level for coastal rivers. While interfluves above the shelf are steep, fluvial valleys in slow uplift regions grade into the shelf and form estuaries that trap sediment at high stand. Alternatively, a fast coastal uplift rate distributes wave-base erosion over a wide range of bedrock elevations that are quickly uplifted above the eustatic range, preventing the beveling of a shelf and the establishment of a river profile equilibrated around an average sea-level. In that case, river base level is highly dependent on the gradient of the continental slope. We show that the width of the shelf is inversely correlated with the uplift rate along the Oregon and northern California coast. The extent of the shelf can be a valuable counterpart to (often absent) marine terraces that provides a record for coastline retreat, local uplift rate and river base level.

Holocene relative sea level changes in Greenland: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennike, O.

2010-12-01

During the Holocene marked relative sea-level changes have taken place in the ice-free parts of Greenland. Already in 1776 it was reported that Thule winter houses and Norse ruins were partly inundated by the sea, and in 1962 the first emergence curve from Greenland was published. This has been followed by reconstruction of many other emergence curves. During the last ice age, large volumes of water were stored in the ice sheets. When the ice melted global sea level rose. In Greenland the ice sheet shrank in size, and the following emergence of the land surpassed the global sea level rise. Raised beach ridges, deltas and marine deposits are widespread in Greenland, and the uppermost form the marine limit, above which fresh-looking till deposits and perched boulders can be found. The marine limit has been mapped at numerous sites in Greenland, and the highest is at about 140 metres above the present sea level. In general, the marine limit is highest in those areas that were released from the largest load of ice. In other Arctic regions, well-constrained sea level curves have been constructed from dated drift-wood samples or whale bones from raised beaches. However, both driftwood and whale bones are rare in Greenland, and most curves have been developed from dated shells of bivalves. In the past years, isolation basins have increasingly been used to reconstruct sea level changes after the last deglaciation. Isolation basins are formed when the threshold of marine basins are lifted up above sea level. The use of this method requires that a series of lakes can be sampled at different elevations below the marine limit. Sampling of marine basins in shallow waters has also shown that many lakes have been inundated by the sea, and by dating the transgression horizons in the sediment sequences and by determining the depth of the sill, it is possible to work out curves for relative sea level rises during the past millennia. The global sea level has been fairly stable during the late Holocene, and the relative sea level rise seen in Greenland may be due to growth of the ice sheet, or related to the decay of the Laurentide ice sheet in North America. New shore-line displacement curves are presented for different parts of Greenland, and their implications with respect to the history of the Greenland ice sheet will be discussed. Comparisons between sea level data and curves based on geophysical modelling often show poor match, and it appears that the models have underestimated the rate and magnitude of ice load changes.

A new perspective on global mean sea level (GMSL) acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Phil J.

2016-06-01

The vast body of contemporary climate change science is largely underpinned by the premise of a measured acceleration from anthropogenic forcings evident in key climate change proxies -- greenhouse gas emissions, temperature, and mean sea level. By virtue, over recent years, the issue of whether or not there is a measurable acceleration in global mean sea level has resulted in fierce, widespread professional, social, and political debate. Attempts to measure acceleration in global mean sea level (GMSL) have often used comparatively crude analysis techniques providing little temporal instruction on these key questions. This work proposes improved techniques to measure real-time velocity and acceleration based on five GMSL reconstructions spanning the time frame from 1807 to 2014 with substantially improved temporal resolution. While this analysis highlights key differences between the respective reconstructions, there is now more robust, convincing evidence of recent acceleration in the trend of GMSL.

Sea Ice Freeboard and Thickness from the 2013 IceBridge ATM and DMS Data in Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, H.; Tian, L.; Tang, J.; Ackley, S. F.

2016-12-01

In November (20, 21, 27, and 28) 2013, NASA's IceBridge mission flew over the Ross Sea, Antarctica and collected important sea ice data with the ATM and DMS for the first time. We will present our methods to derive the local sea level and total freeboard for ice thickness retrieval from these two datasets. The methods include (1) leads classification from DMS data using an automated lead detection method, (2) potential leads from the reflectance of less than 0.25 from the ATM laser shots of L1B data, (3) local sea level retrieval based on these qualified ATM laser shots (L1B) within the DMS-derived leads (after outliers removal from the mean ± 2 standard deviation of these ATM elevations), (4) establishment of an empirical equation of local sea level as a function of distance from the starting point of each IceBridge flight, (5) total freeboard retrieval from the ATM L2 elevations by subtracting the local sea level derived from the empirical equation, and (6) ice thickness retrieval. The ice thickness derived from this method will be analyzed and compared with ICESat data (2003-2009) and other available data for the same region at the similar time period. Possible change and potential reasons will be identified and discussed.

Sensitivity analysis of sea level rise contribution depending on external forcing: A case study of Victoria Land, East Antarctica.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, I. W.; Lee, S. H.; Lee, W. S.; Lee, C. K.; Lee, K. K.

2017-12-01

As global mean temperature increases, it affects increase in polar glacier melt and thermal expansion of sea, which contributed to global sea level rise. Unlike large sea level rise contributors in Western Antarctica (e. g. Pine island glacier, Thwaites glacier), glaciers in East Antarctica shows relatively stable and slow ice velocity. However, recent calving events related to increase of supraglacier lake in Nansen ice shelf arouse the questions in regards to future evolution of ice dynamics at Victoria Land, East Antarctica. Here, using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a series of numerical simulations were carried out to investigate ice dynamics evolution (grounding line migration, ice velocity) and sea level rise contribution in response to external forcing conditions (surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat). In this study, we used control method to set ice dynamic properties (ice rigidity and friction coefficient) with shallow shelf approximation model and check each external forcing conditions contributing to sea level change. Before 50-year transient simulations were conducted based on changing surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat of Drygalski ice tongue and Nansen ice shelf, relaxation was performed for 10 years to reduce non-physical undulation and it was used as initial condition. The simulation results showed that sea level rise contribution were expected to be much less compared to other fast glaciers. Floating ice melting rate was most sensitive parameter to sea level rise, while ice front retreat of Drygalski tongue was negligible. The regional model will be further updated utilizing ice radar topography and measured floating ice melting rate.

First order sea-level cycles and supercontinent break up

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heller, P.L.; Angevine, C.L.

1985-01-01

The authors have developed a model that successfully predicts the approximate magnitude and timing of long term sea-level change without relying on short term increases in global spreading rates. The model involves the following key assumptions. (1) Ocean basins have two types of area/age distributions; Pacific ocean basins are rimmed by subduction zones and have triangular distributions; and Atlantic ocean basins which open at constant rates, have no subduction, and so have rectangular distributions. (2) The total area of the global ocean is constant so that the Pacific basin must close as the Atlantic opens. These assumptions approximate modern globalmore » ocean basin conditions. The model begins with supercontinent break up. As the Atlantic begins to open, the mean age of the global ocean decreases, the mean depth of the sea floor shallows, and sea level, therefore, rises. Once the Atlantic occupies more than 8 to 10% of the global ocean area, the mean age and depth of the ocean floor increases resulting in a sea-level fall. The model can be applied to the mid-Cretaceous sea-level high stand which followed break up of Pangea by 80 to 100 Ma. Based on average Atlantic opening rates, sea level rises to a peak of 44 m at 80 Ma after opening began and then falls by 84 m to the present. Thus the model is capable of explaining approximately half of the total magnitude of the post-mid-Cretaceous eustatic fall without invoking short-term changes in global spreading rates. In addition, the model predicts the observed time lag between supercontinent break up and sea-level high stand for both Mesozoic as well as early Paleozoic time.« less

Complex Mixture-Associated Hormesis and Toxicity: The Case of Leather Tanning Industry

PubMed Central

Pagano, Giovanni; Castello, Giuseppe; Gallo, Marialuisa; Borriello, Ilaria; Guida, Marco

2008-01-01

A series of studies investigated the toxicities of tannery-derived complex mixtures, i.e. vegetable tannin (VT) from Acacia sp. or phenol-based synthetic tannin (ST), and waste-water from tannin-based vs. chromium-based tanneries. Toxicity was evaluated by multiple bioassays including developmental defects and loss of fertilization rate in sea urchin embryos and sperm (Paracentrotus lividus and Sphaerechinus granularis), and algal growth inhibition (Dunaliella tertiolecta and Selenastrum capricornutum). Both VT and ST water extracts resulted in hormetic effects at concentrations ranging 0.1 to 0.3%, and toxicity at levels ≥1%, both in sea urchin embryo and sperm, and in algal growth bioassays. When comparing tannin-based tannery wastewater (TTW) vs. chromium-based tannery effluent (CTE), a hormesis to toxicity trend was observed for TTW both in terms of developmental and fertilization toxicity in sea urchins, and in algal growth inhibition, with hormetic effects at 0.1 to 0.2% TTW, and toxicity at TTW levels ≥1%. Unlike TTW, CTE showed a monotonic toxicity increase from the lowest tested level (0.1%) and CTE toxicity at higher levels was significantly more severe than TTW-induced toxicity. The results support the view that leather production utilizing tannins might be regarded as a more environmentally friendly procedure than chromium-based tanning process. PMID:19088903

Complex mixture-associated hormesis and toxicity: the case of leather tanning industry.

PubMed

Pagano, Giovanni; Castello, Giuseppe; Gallo, Marialuisa; Borriello, Ilaria; Guida, Marco

2008-01-01

A series of studies investigated the toxicities of tannery-derived complex mixtures, i.e. vegetable tannin (VT) from Acacia sp. or phenol-based synthetic tannin (ST), and waste-water from tannin-based vs. chromium-based tanneries. Toxicity was evaluated by multiple bioassays including developmental defects and loss of fertilization rate in sea urchin embryos and sperm (Paracentrotus lividus and Sphaerechinus granularis), and algal growth inhibition (Dunaliella tertiolecta and Selenastrum capricornutum). Both VT and ST water extracts resulted in hormetic effects at concentrations ranging 0.1 to 0.3%, and toxicity at levels > or =1%, both in sea urchin embryo and sperm, and in algal growth bioassays. When comparing tannin-based tannery wastewater (TTW) vs. chromium-based tannery effluent (CTE), a hormesis to toxicity trend was observed for TTW both in terms of developmental and fertilization toxicity in sea urchins, and in algal growth inhibition, with hormetic effects at 0.1 to 0.2% TTW, and toxicity at TTW levels > or =1%. Unlike TTW, CTE showed a monotonic toxicity increase from the lowest tested level (0.1%) and CTE toxicity at higher levels was significantly more severe than TTW-induced toxicity. The results support the view that leather production utilizing tannins might be regarded as a more environmentally friendly procedure than chromium-based tanning process.

Estimation of Sea Level variations with GPS/GLONASS-Reflectometry Technique: Case Study at Stationary Oceanographic Platform in the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurbatov, G. A.; Padokhin, A. M.

2017-12-01

In the present work we study GNSS - reflectometry methods for estimation of sea level variations using a single GNSS-receiver, which are based on the multipath propagation effects (interference pattern in SNR of GNSS signals at small elevation angles) caused by the reflection of navigational signals from the sea surface. The measurements were carried out in the coastal zone of Black Sea at the Stationary Oceanographic Platform during one-week campaign in the summer 2017. GPS/GLONASS signals at two working frequencies of both systems were used to study sea level variations which almost doubled the amount of observations compared to GPS-only tide gauge. Moreover all the measurements were conducted with 4-antenna GNSS receiver providing the opportunity for different orientations of antennas including zenith and nadir looking ones as well as two horizontally oriented ones at different azimuths. As the reference we used data from co-located wire wave gauge which showed good correspondence of both datasets. Though tidal effects are not so pronounced for the Black Sea, the described experimental setup allowed to study the effects of sea surface roughness, driven by meteorological conditions (e.g. wind waves), as well as antenna directivity pattern effects on the observed interference patterns of GPS/GLONASS L1/L2 signals (relation of the main spectral peak to the noise power) and the quality of sea level estimations.

Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

2012-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclonic conditions. Further, it is generally agreed that global sea levels due to climate change will rise anywhere from 18 to 100 cm by the year 2100 (Donoghue, 2011, IPCC, 2007) with some projecting even higher. Further, it is recognized that coastal Mississippi is highly susceptible to a retreating shoreline from sea level rise coupled with predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms from an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (Trenberth, 2005, Webster, et al., 2005). A fully-validated, state-of-the-art ADCIRC+UnSWAN hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past and future sea level changes were simulated. A regression was performed at local tide gauges to estimate past and project future sea levels. Also, surface roughness (i.e. Manning's n and wind reduction factors) was adjusted to reflect past landcover conditions as well as estimate future landcover change. Here, past, present and future sea level scenarios are modeled using a dynamic approach, along with Hurricane Katrina, and compared to present dynamic responses to sea level rise. The dynamic results will be compared and contrasted with a simpler bathtub model (static) approach. It will be demonstrated that water levels do not change linearly with modeled sea level cases (i.e. a 50 cm rise in sea level will not result in an additional 50 cm of water level at a given location) and are highly variable to changes in local conditions (e.g. topography, bathymetry, and surface roughness). Further, nearshore wind-wave conditions are affected by changes in local sea level due to the changes in momentum transfer from the waves to the water column. The results will be used to gain insight into possible morphological changes given several sea level scenarios coupled with an intense tropical cyclone. References Donoghue, J. (2011). "Sea Level History of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the near Future." Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. IPCC (2007). "The Physical Sceince Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." Climate Change 2007, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Avery, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, eds., Cambridge Univesity Press, Cambridge. Resio, D. T. (2007). "White Paper on Estimating Hurricane Inundation Probabilities." U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 125. Trenberth, K. (2005). "Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming." Science, 308(5729), 1753-1754. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment." Science, 309(5742), 1844-1846.

Sea-level changes vs. organic productivity as controls on Early and Middle Devonian bioevents: Facies- and gamma-ray based sequence-stratigraphic correlation of the Prague Basin, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bábek, Ondřej; Faměra, Martin; Šimíček, Daniel; Weinerová, Hedvika; Hladil, Jindřich; Kalvoda, Jiří

2018-01-01

The Devonian marine stratigraphic record is characterized by a number of bioevents - overturns in pelagic and benthic faunal assemblages, which are associated with distinct changes in lithology. The coincidence of lithologic and biotic changes can be explained by the causal link between biotic evolution, carbonate production and relative sea-level changes. To gain insight into the sea-level history of Early and Middle Devonian bioevents (the Lochkovian/Pragian Event, Basal Zlíchovian E., Daleje E., and Choteč E.) we carried out a sequence-stratigraphic analysis of carbonate-dominated successions in the Prague Basin (peri-Gondwana), a classic area of Devonian bioevents. The study is based on a basin-wide correlation of facies and field gamma-ray spectrometry (GRS) logs from 18 sections (Lochkovian to Eifelian), supported by element geochemistry and published biostratigraphic and carbon isotope data. Devonian carbonate deposition in the Prague Basin alternated between two end-member modes: an oligotrophic, homoclinal ramp (Praha and Daleje-Třebotov Formations) and a mesotrophic, distally steepened ramp (Lochkov, Zlíchov, and Choteč Formations). They show contrasting facies, particularly the absence/presence of gravity-flow deposits, allochem composition, U/Th ratios, and geochemical composition (productivity proxies such as P/Al, Si/Al, Zn/Al, TOC and stable carbon isotopes). The mesotrophic systems reflect an increased availability of nutrients on the shelf during the late Lochkovian, early Emsian (Zlíchovian), and Eifelian periods when sea surface temperature, pCO2, and silicate weathering rates were higher. The oligotrophic systems deposited during the Pragian-to-earliest Emsian and late Emsian (Dalejan) periods reflect reversed palaeoclimatic trends. We identified three depositional sequences (DS), DS1 (base of Pragian to early Emsian); DS2 (early Emsian to mid Emsian); and DS3 (mid Emsian to mid Eifelian). These sequences were integrated into a peri-Gondwana relative sea-level curve, which was then compared with the Euramerican sea-level curve of Johnson et al. (1985). The bioevents coincided with several sequence stratigraphic surfaces, representing variable limbs of the relative sea-level curve. On the other hand, their conspicuous coincidence with the switching intervals between the colder oligotrophic and warmer mesotrophic modes suggests that organic production linked to global climate was the primary control on biotic overturns, while sea-level fluctuations may have only amplified its effects.

ENSURF: multi-model sea level forecast - implementation and validation results for the IBIROOS and Western Mediterranean regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, B.; Brouwer, R.; Beckers, J.; Paradis, D.; Balseiro, C.; Lyons, K.; Cure, M.; Sotillo, M. G.; Hackett, B.; Verlaan, M.; Fanjul, E. A.

2012-03-01

ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast that makes use of several storm surge or circulation models and near-real time tide gauge data in the region, with the following main goals: 1. providing easy access to existing forecasts, as well as to its performance and model validation, by means of an adequate visualization tool; 2. generation of better forecasts of sea level, including confidence intervals, by means of the Bayesian Model Average technique (BMA). The Bayesian Model Average technique generates an overall forecast probability density function (PDF) by making a weighted average of the individual forecasts PDF's; the weights represent the Bayesian likelihood that a model will give the correct forecast and are continuously updated based on the performance of the models during a recent training period. This implies the technique needs the availability of sea level data from tide gauges in near-real time. The system was implemented for the European Atlantic facade (IBIROOS region) and Western Mediterranean coast based on the MATROOS visualization tool developed by Deltares. Results of validation of the different models and BMA implementation for the main harbours are presented for these regions where this kind of activity is performed for the first time. The system is currently operational at Puertos del Estado and has proved to be useful in the detection of calibration problems in some of the circulation models, in the identification of the systematic differences between baroclinic and barotropic models for sea level forecasts and to demonstrate the feasibility of providing an overall probabilistic forecast, based on the BMA method.

On the rate and causes of twentieth century sea-level rise.

PubMed

Miller, Laury; Douglas, Bruce C

2006-04-15

Both the rate and causes of twentieth century global sea-level rise (GSLR) have been controversial. Estimates from tide-gauges range from less than one, to more than two millimetre yr(-1). In contrast, values based on the processes mostly responsible for GSLR-mass increase (from mountain glaciers and the great high latitude ice masses) and volume increase (expansion due to ocean warming)-fall below this range. Either the gauge estimates are too high, or one (or both) of the component estimates is too low. Gauge estimates of GSLR have been in dispute for several decades because of vertical land movements, especially due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). More recently, the possibility has been raised that coastal tide-gauges measure exaggerated rates of sea-level rise because of localized ocean warming. Presented here are two approaches to a resolution of these problems. The first is morphological, based on the limiting values of observed trends of twentieth century relative sea-level rise as a function of distance from the centres of the ice loads at last glacial maximum. This observational approach, which does not depend on a geophysical model of GIA, supports values of GSLR near 2 mm yr(-1). The second approach involves an analysis of long records of tide-gauge and hydrographic (in situ temperature and salinity) observations in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. It was found that sea-level trends from tide-gauges, which reflect both mass and volume change, are 2-3 times higher than rates based on hydrographic data which reveal only volume change. These results support those studies that put the twentieth century rate near 2 mm yr(-1), thereby indicating that mass increase plays a much larger role than ocean warming in twentieth century GSLR.

Forecasting the impact of storm waves and sea-level rise on Midway Atoll and Laysan Island within the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument—a comparison of passive versus dynamic inundation models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Berkowitz, Paul; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Logan, Joshua B.

2013-01-01

Two inundation events in 2011 underscored the potential for elevated water levels to damage infrastructure and affect terrestrial ecosystems on the low-lying Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. The goal of this study was to compare passive "bathtub" inundation models based on geographic information systems (GIS) to those that include dynamic water levels caused by wave-induced set-up and run-up for two end-member island morphologies: Midway, a classic atoll with islands on the shallow (2-8 m) atoll rim and a deep, central lagoon; and Laysan, which is characterized by a deep (20-30 m) atoll rim and an island at the center of the atoll. Vulnerability to elevated water levels was assessed using hindcast wind and wave data to drive coupled physics-based numerical wave, current, and water-level models for the atolls. The resulting model data were then used to compute run-up elevations using a parametric run-up equation under both present conditions and future sea-level-rise scenarios. In both geomorphologies, wave heights and wavelengths adjacent to the island shorelines increased more than three times and four times, respectively, with increasing values of sea-level rise, as more deep-water wave energy could propagate over the atoll rim and larger wind-driven waves could develop on the atoll. Although these increases in water depth resulted in decreased set-up along the islands’ shorelines, the larger wave heights and longer wavelengths due to sea-level rise increased the resulting wave-induced run-up. Run-up values were spatially heterogeneous and dependent on the direction of incident wave direction, bathymetry, and island configuration. Island inundation was modeled to increase substantially when wave-driven effects were included, suggesting that inundation and impacts to infrastructure and terrestrial habitats will occur at lower values of predicted sea-level rise, and thus sooner in the 21st century, than suggested by passive GIS-based "bathtub" inundation models. Lastly, observations and the modeling results suggest that classic atolls with islands on a shallow atoll rim are more susceptible to the combined effects of sea-level rise and wave-driven inundation than atolls characterized by a deep atoll rim.

Preparing Norfolk Area Students for America's Second Highest Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, R. R.

2017-12-01

The nonprofit Elizabeth River Project located in Hampton Roads, Virginia was awarded a 3-year national NOAA Environmental Literacy award 2016-2019 to teach 21,000 K-12 youth how to help restore one of the most polluted rivers on the Chesapeake Bay and to help create a resilient community that is facing impacts from the rising seas and changing climate. Through a community collaboration, partners are also creating perhaps the nation's first Youth Resilience Strategy with a vision, goals, best practices and resources on engaging youth to help create resilient cities facing environmental and economic changes. During Year 1, 7,000 elementary students held field investigations aboard the floating classroom Learning Barge and at Paradise Creek Nature Park and helped restore wetland restoration sites. Students performed inquiry based investigations, learned stewardship actions to help create resilience and showed a 40% increase in knowledge. Year 1 best practices in teaching resilience include youth: getting out of the classroom, discovering how rain water travels, performing bioblitzes and water quality testing, engaging in hands-on GreenSTEM activities, using investigation tools, creating innovative solutions to retain and reuse rain water, creating art and voicing their opinions on creating a resilient community.Lessons learned include developing engaging inquiry questions based on creating a resilient community. These included: "What are the impact of rising tides?", "How can sea level rise affect river animals?", "How can we be safe and prepare for extreme weather and flooding as the sea level rises?", "How has the way people worked with the Elizabeth River changed?", "How could sea level rise affect the Elizabeth River's water quality?", "How hot might the air temperature get by 2050 and what can we do to keep it cooler?", "What does this park show us about sea level rise and other ways our climate is changing?", "How do trees help make our park and community resilient?", "How will the rising sea and climate change impact the water quality and river animals?", and "How will sea level rise affect our wetlands and our communities?"

An ecological model of the habitat mosaic in estuarine nursery areas: Part II – Projecting effects of sea level rise on fish production

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding the response of fish populations to habitat change mediated by sea level rise (SLR) is a key component of ecosystem-based management. Yet, no direct link has been established between habitat change due to SLR and fish population production. Here we take a coupled ...

Influence of tidal range on the stability of coastal marshland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2010-01-01

Early comparisons between rates of vertical accretion and sea level rise across marshes in different tidal ranges inspired a paradigm that marshes in high tidal range environments are more resilient to sea level rise than marshes in low tidal range environments. We use field-based observations to propose a relationship between vegetation growth and tidal range and to adapt two numerical models of marsh evolution to explicitly consider the effect of tidal range on the response of the marsh platform channel network system to accelerating rates of sea level rise. We find that the stability of both the channel network and vegetated platform increases with increasing tidal range. Our results support earlier hypotheses that suggest enhanced stability can be directly attributable to a vegetation growth range that expands with tidal range. Accretion rates equilibrate to the rate of sea level rise in all experiments regardless of tidal range, suggesting that comparisons between accretion rate and tidal range will not likely produce a significant relationship. Therefore, our model results offer an explanation to widely inconsistent field-based attempts to quantify this relationship while still supporting the long-held paradigm that high tidal range marshes are indeed more stable.

Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snoussi, Maria; Ouchani, Tachfine; Niazi, Saïda

2008-04-01

The eastern part of the Mediterranean coast of Morocco is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, due to its low topography and its high ecological and touristic value. Assessment of the potential land loss by inundation has been based on empirical approaches using a minimum inundation level of 2 m and a maximum inundation level of 7 m, where scenarios for future sea-level rise range from 200 to 860 mm, with a 'best estimate' of 490 mm. The socio-economic impacts have been based on two possible alternative futures: (1) a 'worst-case' scenario, obtained by combining the 'economic development first' scenario with the maximum inundation level; and (2) a 'best-case' scenario, by combining the 'sustainability first' scenario with the minimum inundation level. Inundation analysis, based on Geographical Information Systems and a modelling approach to erosion, has identified both locations and the socioeconomic sectors that are most at risk to accelerated sea-level rise. Results indicate that 24% and 59% of the area will be lost by flooding at minimum and maximum inundation levels, respectively. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be the residential and recreational areas, agricultural land, and the natural ecosystem. Shoreline erosion will affect 50% and 70% of the total area in 2050 and 2100, respectively. Potential strategies to ameliorate the impact of seawater inundation include: wetland preservation; beach nourishment at tourist resorts; and the afforestation of dunes. As this coast is planned to become one of the most developed tourist resorts in Morocco by 2010, measures such as building regulation, urban growth planning and development of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan, are recommended for the region.

Consistent estimate of ocean warming, land ice melt and sea level rise from Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blazquez, Alejandro; Meyssignac, Benoît; Lemoine, Jean Michel

2016-04-01

Based on the sea level budget closure approach, this study investigates the consistency of observed Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) estimates from satellite altimetry, observed Ocean Thermal Expansion (OTE) estimates from in-situ hydrographic data (based on Argo for depth above 2000m and oceanic cruises below) and GRACE observations of land water storage and land ice melt for the period January 2004 to December 2014. The consistency between these datasets is a key issue if we want to constrain missing contributions to sea level rise such as the deep ocean contribution. Numerous previous studies have addressed this question by summing up the different contributions to sea level rise and comparing it to satellite altimetry observations (see for example Llovel et al. 2015, Dieng et al. 2015). Here we propose a novel approach which consists in correcting GRACE solutions over the ocean (essentially corrections of stripes and leakage from ice caps) with mass observations deduced from the difference between satellite altimetry GMSL and in-situ hydrographic data OTE estimates. We check that the resulting GRACE corrected solutions are consistent with original GRACE estimates of the geoid spherical harmonic coefficients within error bars and we compare the resulting GRACE estimates of land water storage and land ice melt with independent results from the literature. This method provides a new mass redistribution from GRACE consistent with observations from Altimetry and OTE. We test the sensibility of this method to the deep ocean contribution and the GIA models and propose best estimates.

Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majewski, Jedrzej; Pham, Dat; Meltzner, Aron; Switzer, Adam; Horton, Benjamin; Heng, Shu Yun; Warrick, David

2015-04-01

Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls Jędrzej M. Majewski 1, Dat T. Pham1, Aron J. Meltzner 1, Adam D. Switzer 1, Benjamin P. Horton2, Shu Yun Heng1, David Warrick3, 1 Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 2 Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA 3 Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA Coral microatolls can be used to study relative sea-level change at multidecadal timescales associated with vertical land movements, climate induced sea-level rise and other oceanographic phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with the assumption that the highest level of survival (HLS) of coral microatolls track sea level over the course of their lifetimes. In this study we compare microatoll records covering from as early as 1883 through 2013, from two sites in Indonesia, with long records (>20 years) from proximal tide gauges, satellite altimetry, and other sea-level reconstructions. We compared the HLS time series derived from open-ocean and moated (or ponded) microatolls on tectonically stable Belitung Island and a potentially tectonically active setting in Mapur Island, with sea-level reconstructions for 1950-2011. The sea-level reconstructions are based on ground and satellite measurements, combining a tide model with the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model. Our results confirm that open-ocean microatolls do track low water levels at multi decadal time scales and can be used as a proxy for relative sea level (RSL) over time. However, microatolls that are even partially moated are unsuitable and do not track RSL; rather, their growth patterns likely reflect changes in the elevation of the sill of the local pond, as reported by earlier authors. Our ongoing efforts will include an attempt to recognize similarities in moated microatolls that may be helpful in identifying fossil microatolls that grew in moated settings. We will also attempt to build guidelines for recognizing and excluding living ponded microatolls in the field.

A comparison of two global datasets of extreme sea levels and resulting flood exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Ward, Philip J.

2017-04-01

Estimating the current risk of coastal flooding requires adequate information on extreme sea levels. For over a decade, the only global data available was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL) dataset, which applies a static approximation to estimate extreme sea levels. Recently, a dynamically derived dataset was developed: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here, we compare the two datasets. The differences between DCESL and GTSR are generally larger than the confidence intervals of GTSR. Compared to observed extremes, DCESL generally overestimates extremes with a mean bias of 0.6 m. With a mean bias of -0.2 m GTSR generally underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model is applied to calculate the present-day flood exposure in terms of the land area and the population below the 1 in 100-year sea levels. Global exposed population is 28% lower when based on GTSR instead of DCESL. Considering the limited data available at the time, DCESL provides a good estimate of the spatial variation in extremes around the world. However, GTSR allows for an improved assessment of the impacts of coastal floods, including confidence bounds. We further improve the assessment of coastal impacts by correcting for the conflicting vertical datum of sea-level extremes and land elevation, which has not been accounted for in previous global assessments. Converting the extreme sea levels to the same vertical reference used for the elevation data is shown to be a critical step resulting in 39-59% higher estimate of population exposure.

Development of new geoinformation methods for modelling and prediction of sea level change over different timescales - overview of the project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niedzielski, T.; Włosińska, M.; Miziński, B.; Hewelt, M.; Migoń, P.; Kosek, W.; Priede, I. G.

2012-04-01

The poster aims to provide a broad scientific audience with a general overview of a project on sea level change modelling and prediction that has just commenced at the University of Wrocław, Poland. The initiative that the project fits, called the Homing Plus programme, is organised by the Foundation for Polish Science and financially supported by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund and the Innovative Economy Programme. There are two key research objectives of the project that complement each other. First, emphasis is put on modern satellite altimetric gridded time series from the Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO) repository. Daily sea level anomaly maps, access to which in near-real time is courtesy of AVISO, are being steadily downloaded every day to our local server in Wroclaw, Poland. These data will be processed within a general framework of modelling and prediction of sea level change in short, medium and long term. Secondly, sea level change over geological time is scrutinised in order to cover very long time scales that go far beyond a history of altimetric and tide-gauge measurements. The aforementioned approaches comprise a few tasks that aim to solve the following detailed problems. Within the first one, our objective is to seek spatio-temporal dependencies in the gridded sea level anomaly time series. Subsequently, predictions that make use of such cross-correlations shall be derived, and near-real time service for automatic update with validation will be implemented. Concurrently, (i.e. apart from spatio-temporal dependencies and their use in the process of forecasting variable sea level topography), threshold models shall be utilised for predicting the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal that is normally present in sea level anomaly time series of the equatorial Pacific. Within the second approach, however, the entirely different methods are proposed. Links between sea floor topography and sea level change will be quantified, with a particular emphasis placed on the hypsometric curve and its semi-empirical modelling. Very long-term projections of sea level change will be based on testing statistical hypotheses and trend analyses, but input data will be calculated from theoretical models. Slightly apart from this topic is a notion of nonlinearity that was earlier shown to be present in gridded sea level anomaly time series. Thus, the list of intermediate tasks concludes with a need for a comprehensive interpretation of such irregularities.

Geophysical Imaging of Sea-level Proxies in Beach-Ridge Deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen, L.; Emerich Souza, P.; Meldgaard, A.; Bendixen, M.; Kroon, A.; Clemmensen, L. B.

2017-12-01

We show ground-penetrating radar (GPR) reflection data collected over modern and fossil beach deposits from different localities along coastlines in meso-tidal regimes of Greenland and micro-tidal regimes of Denmark. The acquired reflection GPR sections show several similar characteristics but also some differences. A similar characteristic is the presence of downlapping reflections, where the downlap point is interpreted to mark the transition from upper shoreface to beachface deposits and, thus, be a marker of a level close to or at sea-level at the time of deposition. Differences in grain size of the investigated beach ridge system result in different scattering characteristics of the acquired GPR data. These differences call for tailored, careful processing of the GPR data for optimal imaging of internal beach ridge architecture. We outline elements of the GPR data processing of particular importance for optimal imaging. Moreover, we discuss advantages and challenges related to using GPR-based proxies of sea-level as compared to other methods traditionally used for establishment of curves of past sea-level variation.

Map showing the potentiometric surface of the Magothy Aquifer in southern Maryland, September 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, F.K.; Wheeler, J.C.; Curtin, S.E.

1982-01-01

The map is based on measurements from a network of 83 observation wells cased to the Magothy aquifer. Highest levels of the potentiometric surface, 59 to 60 feet above sea level, were measured near the outcrop-subcrop of the aquifer in topographically high areas of Anne Arundel and Prince Georges Counties. The surface slopes to the southeast to above sea level along much of the western shore of Chesapeake Bay. Three separate, distinct, and extensive cones of depression have developed in the potentiometric surface around the well fields of the city of Annapolis-Broadneck Peninsula area, town of Waldorf, and Chalk Point. Several square miles of each cone are below sea level, and, in some areas at Chalk Point and Waldorf, the cone is 40 to 50 feet below sea level. The network of wells was developed as part of the cooperative program between the U.S. Geological Survey, the Maryland Geological Survey, and the Maryland Energy and Coastal Zone Administration. (USGS)

Map showing the potentiometric surface of the Magothy Aquifer in southern Maryland, September 1979

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Frederick K.; Wheeler, J.C.; Curtin, Stephen E.

1980-01-01

This map is based on measurements made on a network of 77 observation wells in southern Maryland. Highest levels of the potentiometric surface, 63 to 67 feet above sea level, were measured near the outcrop or subcrop of the aquifer in topographically high areas of Anne Arundel and Prince Georges Counties. The surface slopes to the southeast to about 5 feet above sea level along much of the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Four separate, distinct, and extensive cones of depression have developed in the surface around the well fields of the city of Annapolis, Broadneck, town of Waldorf, and Chalk Point. Several square miles of each cone are below sea level and in localized areas at Chalk Point and Waldorf, the surface is 40 to 50 feet below sea level. The network of wells was developed as part of the cooperative program between the U.S. Geological Survey, the Maryland Geological Survey, and the Maryland Energy and Coastal Zone Administration. (USGS)

Holocene sea-level change and Antarctic melting history derived from geological observations and geophysical modeling along the Shimokita Peninsula, northern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokoyama, Yusuke; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Miyairi, Yosuke; Obrochta, Stephen; Demboya, Nobuhiro; Makino, Yoshinori; Kawahata, Hodaka

2012-07-01

A Mid to Late Holocene sea-level record based on combined geomorphological, geological and micropaleontological observations was obtained from well-developed wave cut benches subaerially exposed along the Shimokita Peninsula, northern Japan. Results indicate that the benches were formed during mid to late Holocene sea-level transgressions, reaching a maximum highstand level of 2 m above present at about 4,000 years ago. This timing corresponds to an abrupt, order of magnitude decrease in sedimentation rate as recorded in a core recovered from proximal Mutsu Bay. In addition, glacio-hydro-isostatic adjustment due to crustal deformation in response to postglacial sea-level rise was modeled, and results are consistent with the reconstructed local 2 m highstand. Given that meltwater contributions from the major North American and European ice sheets had largely ceased by 7,000 years ago, these independent lines of evidence, taken together, indicate that melting of the Antarctic ice sheet ended by 4,000 years ago.

Digital shoreline analysis system-based change detection along the highly eroding Krishna-Godavari delta front

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallepalli, Akhil; Kakani, Nageswara Rao; James, David B.; Richardson, Mark A.

2017-07-01

Coastal regions are highly vulnerable to rising sea levels due to global warming. Previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) predictions of 26 to 82 cm global sea level rise are now considered conservative. Subsequent investigations predict much higher levels which would displace 10% of the world's population living less than 10 m above sea level. Remote sensing and GIS technologies form the mainstay of models on coastal retreat and inundation to future sea-level rise. This study estimates the varying trends along the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) delta region. The rate of shoreline shift along the 330-km long K-G delta coast was estimated using satellite images between 1977 and 2008. With reference to a selected baseline from along an inland position, end point rate and net shoreline movement were calculated using a GIS-based digital shoreline analysis system. The results indicated a net loss of about 42.1 km2 area during this 31-year period, which is in agreement with previous literature. Considering the nature of landforms and EPR, the future hazard line (or coastline) is predicted for the area; the predication indicates a net erosion of about 57.6 km2 along the K-G delta coast by 2050 AD.

The global coastline dataset: the observed relation between erosion and sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Luijendijk, A.; Hagenaars, G.

2017-12-01

Erosion of sandy coasts is considered one of the key risks of sea-level rise. Because sandy coastlines of the world are often highly populated, erosive coastline trends result in risk to populations and infrastructure. Most of our understanding of the relation between sea-level rise and coastal erosion is based on local or regional observations and generalizations of numerical and physical experiments. Until recently there was no reliable global scale assessment of the location of sandy coasts and their rate of erosion and accretion. Here we present the global coastline dataset that covers erosion indicators on a local scale with global coverage. The dataset uses our global coastline transects grid defined with an alongshore spacing of 250 m and a cross shore length extending 1 km seaward and 1 km landward. This grid matches up with pre-existing local grids where available. We present the latest results on validation of coastal-erosion trends (based on optical satellites) and classification of sandy versus non-sandy coasts. We show the relation between sea-level rise (based both on tide-gauges and multi-mission satellite altimetry) and observed erosion trends over the last decades, taking into account broken-coastline trends (for example due to nourishments).An interactive web application presents the publicly-accessible results using a backend based on Google Earth Engine. It allows both researchers and stakeholders to use objective estimates of coastline trends, particularly when authoritative sources are not available.

Challenges of Holocene sea-level reconstructions in area of low uplift rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grudzinska, Ieva; Vassiljev, Jüri; Stivrins, Normunds

2017-04-01

Isolated coastal water bodies provide an excellent sedimentary archive of the evolutionary stages of the coastal regions. It is relatively easy to determine lake isolation threshold, time and contact, where marine and brackish diatoms are replaced by halophilous and subsequently by freshwater diatoms, in areas with high land uplift rates and hard bedrock. Whereas, in areas where the land uplift rate is near zero and sedimentary cover of sand, silt and/or clay exists, determination of the lake isolation threshold and time is a rather complicated task. Such an area is the coast of the Gulf of Riga, where the apparent land uplift is about 1 mm yr-1 in the northern part and near zero in the southern part of the area. The aim of the study is to improve the understanding of the nature and extent of the Holocene sea level changes in the eastern Baltic Sea region, in the area with low land uplift rate. This study marks the first attempt to reconstruct sea level changes for a wide variety of settings based on high-resolution bio-, litho-, and chronostratigraphical evidence from sediment records of isolation basins in Latvia. In total, eight lakes were studied in order to revise the relative sea level (RSL) changes at the southern coast of the Gulf of Riga based on new litho- and biostratigraphical data and radiocarbon datings. The palaeogeographical reconstruction was challenging because we had to take into account that the process of isolation was influenced by various factors, such as gradual eustatic sea level (ESL) rise, river delta infilling by sediments and long-shore sediment transport. The water level in the Baltic Sea basin until 8,500 cal BP was influenced primarily by deglaciation dynamics, whereas in the last 8,500 years, the main factor was complicated interplay between the ESL rise and the land uplift rate. According to diatom composition and radiocarbon dates, the Litorina Sea transgression was a long-lasting event (ca. 2,200 years) in the southern part of the Gulf of Riga. It culminated more than 1,000 years later compared with sites with higher uplift rates in the northern part of the Baltic Sea. At the southern coast of the Gulf of Riga the Litorina Sea level reached close to the present sea level at 5,000-4,200 cal BP. On the basis of the obtained results and GIS analysis, palaeogeographical maps for various time windows were compiled. In this study the multi-proxy approach was used, by applying high resolution studies of wide settings of isolation basins, to obtain new evidence of RSL changes and patterns of land uplift. This study can serve as the basis for further investigations in other areas along the coastline of the eastern Baltic Sea. Moreover, it may help to provide answers to unclear questions about the future.

Mass and volume contributions to twentieth-century global sea level rise.

PubMed

Miller, Laury; Douglas, Bruce C

2004-03-25

The rate of twentieth-century global sea level rise and its causes are the subjects of intense controversy. Most direct estimates from tide gauges give 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1), whereas indirect estimates based on the two processes responsible for global sea level rise, namely mass and volume change, fall far below this range. Estimates of the volume increase due to ocean warming give a rate of about 0.5 mm yr(-1) (ref. 8) and the rate due to mass increase, primarily from the melting of continental ice, is thought to be even smaller. Therefore, either the tide gauge estimates are too high, as has been suggested recently, or one (or both) of the mass and volume estimates is too low. Here we present an analysis of sea level measurements at tide gauges combined with observations of temperature and salinity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans close to the gauges. We find that gauge-determined rates of sea level rise, which encompass both mass and volume changes, are two to three times higher than the rates due to volume change derived from temperature and salinity data. Our analysis supports earlier studies that put the twentieth-century rate in the 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1) range, but more importantly it suggests that mass increase plays a larger role than ocean warming in twentieth-century global sea level rise.

A Late Pleistocene sea level stack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spratt, Rachel M.; Lisiecki, Lorraine E.

2016-04-01

Late Pleistocene sea level has been reconstructed from ocean sediment core data using a wide variety of proxies and models. However, the accuracy of individual reconstructions is limited by measurement error, local variations in salinity and temperature, and assumptions particular to each technique. Here we present a sea level stack (average) which increases the signal-to-noise ratio of individual reconstructions. Specifically, we perform principal component analysis (PCA) on seven records from 0 to 430 ka and five records from 0 to 798 ka. The first principal component, which we use as the stack, describes ˜ 80 % of the variance in the data and is similar using either five or seven records. After scaling the stack based on Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea level estimates, the stack agrees to within 5 m with isostatically adjusted coral sea level estimates for Marine Isotope Stages 5e and 11 (125 and 400 ka, respectively). Bootstrapping and random sampling yield mean uncertainty estimates of 9-12 m (1σ) for the scaled stack. Sea level change accounts for about 45 % of the total orbital-band variance in benthic δ18O, compared to a 65 % contribution during the LGM-to-Holocene transition. Additionally, the second and third principal components of our analyses reflect differences between proxy records associated with spatial variations in the δ18O of seawater.

Rapid Ice-Sheet Changes and Mechanical Coupling to Solid-Earth/Sea-Level and Space Geodetic Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2015-12-01

Perturbations in gravitational and rotational potentials caused by climate driven mass redistribution on the earth's surface, such as ice sheet melting and terrestrial water storage, affect the spatiotemporal variability in global and regional sea level. Here we present a numerically accurate, computationally efficient, high-resolution model for sea level. Unlike contemporary models that are based on spherical-harmonic formulation, the model can operate efficiently in a flexible embedded finite-element mesh system, thus capturing the physics operating at km-scale yet capable of simulating geophysical quantities that are inherently of global scale with minimal computational cost. One obvious application is to compute evolution of sea level fingerprints and associated geodetic and astronomical observables (e.g., geoid height, gravity anomaly, solid-earth deformation, polar motion, and geocentric motion) as a companion to a numerical 3-D thermo-mechanical ice sheet simulation, thus capturing global signatures of climate driven mass redistribution. We evaluate some important time-varying signatures of GRACE inferred ice sheet mass balance and continental hydrological budget; for example, we identify dominant sources of ongoing sea-level change at the selected tide gauge stations, and explain the relative contribution of different sources to the observed polar drift. We also report our progress on ice-sheet/solid-earth/sea-level model coupling efforts toward realistic simulation of Pine Island Glacier over the past several hundred years.

Amplitude of late Miocene sea-level fluctuations from karst development in reef-slope deposits (SE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reolid, Jesús; Betzler, Christian; Braga, Juan Carlos

2016-11-01

A prograding late Miocene carbonate platform in southern Spain revealing different sea-level pinning points was analysed with the aim to increase the accuracy of reconstruction of past sea-level changes. These pinning points are distinct diagenetic zones (DZ) and the position of reef-framework deposits. DZ1 is defined by the dissolution of bioclastic components and DZ2 by calcitic cement precipitation in dissolution pores. Calcite cements are granular and radiaxial fibrous, and are of meteoric origin as deduced from cathodoluminescence, EDX spectroscopy, as well as from δ13C and δ18O isotope analyses. DZ3 has moldic porosity after aragonitic bioclasts with minor granular calcitic cements. DZ1 and DZ2 indicate karstification and the development of a coastal palaeoaquifer during a sea-level lowstand. DZ3 diagenetic features are related to the final subaerial exposure of the section during the Messinian Salinity Crisis. Facies and diagenetic data reveal a complete cycle of sea-level fall (23 ± 1 m) and rise (31 ± 1 m). A robust age model based on magneto- and cyclostratigraphy for these deposits places this cycle between 5.89 and 5.87 Ma. Therefore, for the first time, this work allows a direct comparison of an outcrop with a pelagic marine proxy record of a specific Neogene sea-level fluctuation.

Fingerprinting sea-level variations in response to continental ice loss: a benchmark exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barletta, Valentina R.; Spada, Giorgio; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; James, Thomas S.; Simon, Karen M.; van der Wal, Wouter; Martinec, Zdenek; Klemann, Volker; Olsson, Per-Anders; Hagedoorn, Jan; Stocchi, Paolo; Vermeersen, Bert

2013-04-01

Understanding the response of the Earth to the waxing and waning ice sheets is crucial in various contexts, ranging from the interpretation of modern satellite geodetic measurements to the projections of future sea level trends in response to climate change. All the processes accompanying Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) can be described solving the so-called Sea Level Equation (SLE), an integral equation that accounts for the interactions between the ice sheets, the solid Earth, and the oceans. Modern approaches to the SLE are based on various techniques that range from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Here we present the results of a benchmark exercise of independently developed codes designed to solve the SLE. The study involves predictions of current sea level changes due to present-day ice mass loss. In spite of the differences in the methods employed, the comparison shows that a significant number of GIA modellers can reproduce their sea-level computations within 2% for well defined, large-scale present-day ice mass changes. Smaller and more detailed loads need further and dedicated benchmarking and high resolution computation. This study shows how the details of the implementation and the inputs specifications are an important, and often underappreciated, aspect. Hence this represents a step toward the assessment of reliability of sea level projections obtained with benchmarked SLE codes.

A coastal hazards data base for the U.S. West Coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gornitz, V.M.; Beaty, T.W.; Daniels, R.C.

1997-12-01

This document describes the contents of a digital data base that may be used to identify coastlines along the US West Coast that are at risk to sea-level rise. This data base integrates point, line, and polygon data for the US West Coast into 0.25{degree} latitude by 0.25{degree} longitude grid cells and into 1:2,000,000 digitized line segments that can be used by raster or vector geographic information systems (GIS) as well as by non-GIS data bases. Each coastal grid cell and line segment contains data variables from the following seven data sets: elevation, geology, geomorphology, sea-level trends, shoreline displacement (erosion/accretion),more » tidal ranges, and wave heights. One variable from each data set was classified according to its susceptibility to sea-level rise and/or erosion to form 7 relative risk variables. These risk variables range in value from 1 to 5 and may be used to calculate a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Algorithms used to calculate several CVIs are listed within this text.« less

The Holocene palaeogeography and relative sea level for two tidal basins of the German North Sea coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bungenstock, Friederike; Wartenberg, Wolfram; Mauz, Barbara; Freund, Holger; Frechen, Manfred; Weerts, Henk J. T.; Berner, Heinrich

2014-05-01

The response of coasts to global sea-level rise is highly variable. Knowledge of driving coastal parameters alongside the regional sea-level history is therefore indispensable when the response to global sea-level rise is to be assessed. Here, we study the Holocene relative sea-level of the south coast of the North Sea which is controlled by a number of very local parameters, as well as by regional glacio-isostatic adjustments. It is therefore crucial to restrict the data acquisition and evaluation to small coastal sections, ideally to single tidal basins, to minimize the sources of uncertainties (Bungenstock & Weerts 2010, 2012). We present data from two tidal basins, Langeoog and Jade Bay. For Langeoog a database derived from 600 cores, 68 km of Boomer seismic data, 33 radiocarbon ages and 8 OSL dates is available. (Bungenstock & Schäfer 2009, Mauz & Bungenstock 2007). For the Jade bay, the database comprises sedimentary markers, pollen and macro remains derived from 68 cores. The sedentary chronology is based on 54 radiocarbon ages and pollen constraints (Wartenberg & Freund 2011, Wartenberg et al. 2013). For both tidal basins the sedimentological record was interpreted in terms of the local paleogeographical development since about 7000 cal BP and its influence on the local relative sea-level curve. While the trend of the relative sea level is similar for both tidal basins, it shows a different altitude. The timing of the main marine transgression within the Langeoog area takes place ~3000 cal. BP whereas the sedimentological record of the Jade Bay shows two prominent transgressions, one for ~5000 cal. BP and one for ~3000 cal. BP. The Langeoog palaeo-environment is continuously characterised by marine influence. Within the Jade Bay two different palaeo-environments could be identified, documenting that from the West to the centre the landscape development in the Jade Bay was drainage driven feeding the associated fen peat with minerogenic water but being autonomous from isochronic relative sea-level. This all shows the importance to understand the differences of local landscape and depositional developments for a reliable interpretation of sea-level data. References Bungenstock, F. & Schäfer, A. (2009): The Holocene relative sea-level curve for the tidal basin of the barrier island Langeoog, German Bight, Southern North Sea. - Global and Planetary Change 66: 34-51. Bungenstock, F. & Weerts, H.J.T. (2011): The high-resolution Holocene sea-level curve for Nothwest Germany: global signals, local effects or data-artefacts? - International Journal of Earth Sciences 99: 1687-1706. Bungenstock, F. & Weerts, H.J.T. (2012): Holocene relative sea-level curves for the German North Sea coast. International Journal of Earth Sciences. ? - International Journal of Earth Sciences 101:1083-1099. Mauz, B. & Bungenstock, F. (2007):. How to reconstruct trends of late Holocene relative sea level: A new approach using tidal flat clastic sediments and optical dating. Marine Geology 237: 225-237. Wartenberg, W. & Freund, H. (2011): Late Pleistocene and Holocene sedimentary record within the Jade Bay, Lower Saxony, Northwest Germany - New aspects for the palaeoecological record. - Quaternary International:1-11. Wartenberg, W., Vött, A., Freund, H. Hadler, H., Frechen, M., Willershäuser, T., Schnaidt, S., Fischer, P. & Obrocki, L. (2013): Evidence of isochronic transgressive surfaces within the Jade Bay tidal flfl at area, southern German North Sea coast - Holocene event horizons of regional interest. - Zeitschrift für Geomorphologi, Supplementary Issue. DOI: 10.1127/0372-8854/2013/S-00150

Low-mode internal tides and balanced dynamics disentanglement in altimetric observations: Synergy with surface density observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte, Aurélien L.; Klein, Patrice; Dunphy, Michael; Le Gentil, Sylvie

2017-03-01

The performance of a tentative method that disentangles the contributions of a low-mode internal tide on sea level from that of the balanced mesoscale eddies is examined using an idealized high resolution numerical simulation. This disentanglement is essential for proper estimation from sea level of the ocean circulation related to balanced motions. The method relies on an independent observation of the sea surface water density whose variations are 1/dominated by the balanced dynamics and 2/correlate with variations of potential vorticity at depth for the chosen regime of surface-intensified turbulence. The surface density therefore leads via potential vorticity inversion to an estimate of the balanced contribution to sea level fluctuations. The difference between instantaneous sea level (presumably observed with altimetry) and the balanced estimate compares moderately well with the contribution from the low-mode tide. Application to realistic configurations remains to be tested. These results aim at motivating further developments of reconstruction methods of the ocean dynamics based on potential vorticity dynamics arguments. In that context, they are particularly relevant for the upcoming wide-swath high resolution altimetric missions (SWOT).

Transient Three-Dimensional Side Load Analysis of a Film Cooled Nozzle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ten-See; Guidos, Mike

2008-01-01

Transient three-dimensional numerical investigations on the side load physics for an engine encompassing a film cooled nozzle extension and a regeneratively cooled thrust chamber, were performed. The objectives of this study are to identify the three-dimensional side load physics and to compute the associated aerodynamic side load using an anchored computational methodology. The computational methodology is based on an unstructured-grid, pressure-based computational fluid dynamics formulation, and a transient inlet history based on an engine system simulation. Ultimately, the computational results will be provided to the nozzle designers for estimating of effect of the peak side load on the nozzle structure. Computations simulating engine startup at ambient pressures corresponding to sea level and three high altitudes were performed. In addition, computations for both engine startup and shutdown transients were also performed for a stub nozzle, operating at sea level. For engine with the full nozzle extension, computational result shows starting up at sea level, the peak side load occurs when the lambda shock steps into the turbine exhaust flow, while the side load caused by the transition from free-shock separation to restricted-shock separation comes at second; and the side loads decreasing rapidly and progressively as the ambient pressure decreases. For the stub nozzle operating at sea level, the computed side loads during both startup and shutdown becomes very small due to the much reduced flow area.

Importance of coastal change variables in determining vulnerability to sea- and lake-level change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, E.A.; Thieler, E.R.; Williams, S.J.

2010-01-01

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey began conducting scientific assessments of coastal vulnerability to potential future sea- and lake-level changes in 22 National Park Service sea- and lakeshore units. Coastal park units chosen for the assessment included a variety of geological and physical settings along the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Alaska, Caribbean, and Great Lakes shorelines. This research is motivated by the need to understand and anticipate coastal changes caused by accelerating sea-level rise, as well as lake-level changes caused by climate change, over the next century. The goal of these assessments is to provide information that can be used to make long-term (decade to century) management decisions. Here we analyze the results of coastal vulnerability assessments for several coastal national park units. Index-based assessments quantify the likelihood that physical changes may occur based on analysis of the following variables: tidal range, ice cover, wave height, coastal slope, historical shoreline change rate, geomorphology, and historical rate of relative sea- or lake-level change. This approach seeks to combine a coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and it provides a measure of the system's potential vulnerability to the effects of sea- or lake-level change. Assessments for 22 park units are combined to evaluate relationships among the variables used to derive the index. Results indicate that Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico parks have the highest vulnerability rankings relative to other park regions. A principal component analysis reveals that 99% of the index variability can be explained by four variables: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, water-level change rate, and mean significant wave height. Tidal range, ice cover, and historical shoreline change are not as important when the index is evaluated at large spatial scales (thousands of kilometers). ?? 2010 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Verification of an ensemble prediction system for storm surge forecast in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, Riccardo; Lionello, Piero

2014-12-01

In the Adriatic Sea, storm surges present a significant threat to Venice and to the flat coastal areas of the northern coast of the basin. Sea level forecast is of paramount importance for the management of daily activities and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built for the protection of the city. In this paper, an EPS (ensemble prediction system) for operational forecasting of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea is presented and applied to a 3-month-long period (October-December 2010). The sea level EPS is based on the HYPSE (hydrostatic Padua Sea elevation) model, which is a standard single-layer nonlinear shallow water model, whose forcings (mean sea level pressure and surface wind fields) are provided by the ensemble members of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EPS. Results are verified against observations at five tide gauges located along the Croatian and Italian coasts of the Adriatic Sea. Forecast uncertainty increases with the predicted value of the storm surge and with the forecast lead time. The EMF (ensemble mean forecast) provided by the EPS has a rms (root mean square) error lower than the DF (deterministic forecast), especially for short (up to 3 days) lead times. Uncertainty for short lead times of the forecast and for small storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty of the initial condition of the hydrodynamical model. Uncertainty for large lead times and large storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty in the meteorological forcings. The EPS spread increases with the rms error of the forecast. For large lead times the EPS spread and the forecast error substantially coincide. However, the EPS spread in this study, which does not account for uncertainty in the initial condition, underestimates the error during the early part of the forecast and for small storm surge values. On the contrary, it overestimates the rms error for large surge values. The PF (probability forecast) of the EPS has a clear skill in predicting the actual probability distribution of sea level, and it outperforms simple "dressed" PF methods. A probability estimate based on the single DF is shown to be inadequate. However, a PF obtained with a prescribed Gaussian distribution and centered on the DF value performs very similarly to the EPS-based PF.

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks can be potentially exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise in the northern Gulf coast. An unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico.more » Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase of semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a parameter “change of inundation depth” through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.« less

Marine evidence of a deconvolving Antarctic Ice Sheet during post-LGM retreat of the Ross Sea sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prothro, L. O.; Yokoyama, Y.; Simkins, L. M.; Anderson, J. B.; Majewski, W.; Yamane, M.; Ohkouchi, N.

2017-12-01

Predictive models of ice sheet and sea level change are dependent on observational data of ice-sheet behavior for model testing and tuning. The geologic record contains a wealth of information about ice-sheet dynamics, with fewer logistical, spatial, and temporal limitations than are involved in data acquisition along contemporary ice margins. However, past ice-sheet behavior is still largely uncertain or contested due to issues with obtaining meaningful radiocarbon dates. We minimize bias from glacially-reworked carbon and limitations from unknown geomorphic context and uncertainty in sediment facies identification by using careful sedimentary analyses within a geomorphic framework, as well as selection of appropriate dating methods. Our study area, the Ross Sea sector of Antarctica, is the primary drainage outlet for 25% of the continent's grounded ice. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the low-profile, marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and the steeper profile, largely land-based East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) converged in the Ross Sea to flow out to or near the continental shelf edge. Geomorphic and sedimentary data reveal that during their subsequent retreat to form the Ross Sea Embayment, the two ice sheets behaved differently, with the WAIS rapidly retreating tens of kilometers followed by extended pauses, while the EAIS retreated steadily, with shorter (decadal- to century-long) pauses. This behavior leads us to believe that the two ice sheets may have contributed diachronously to sea level. By acquiring accurate timing of grounding line retreat, we are able to calculate volumes of ice lost throughout deglaciation, as well as associated sea level contributions. In addition, we attempt to rectify the contradicting marine and terrestrial interpretations of retreat patterns from the Ross Sea continental shelf.

Salt marsh as a coastal filter for the oceans: changes in function with experimental increases in nitrogen loading and sea-level rise.

PubMed

Nelson, Joanna L; Zavaleta, Erika S

2012-01-01

Coastal salt marshes are among Earth's most productive ecosystems and provide a number of ecosystem services, including interception of watershed-derived nitrogen (N) before it reaches nearshore oceans. Nitrogen pollution and climate change are two dominant drivers of global-change impacts on ecosystems, yet their interacting effects at the land-sea interface are poorly understood. We addressed how sea-level rise and anthropogenic N additions affect the salt marsh ecosystem process of nitrogen uptake using a field-based, manipulative experiment. We crossed simulated sea-level change and ammonium-nitrate (NH(4)NO(3))-addition treatments in a fully factorial design to examine their potentially interacting effects on emergent marsh plants in a central California estuary. We measured above- and belowground biomass and tissue nutrient concentrations seasonally and found that N-addition had a significant, positive effect on a) aboveground biomass, b) plant tissue N concentrations, c) N stock sequestered in plants, and d) shoot:root ratios in summer. Relative sea-level rise did not significantly affect biomass, with the exception of the most extreme sea-level-rise simulation, in which all plants died by the summer of the second year. Although there was a strong response to N-addition treatments, salt marsh responses varied by season. Our results suggest that in our site at Coyote Marsh, Elkhorn Slough, coastal salt marsh plants serve as a robust N trap and coastal filter; this function is not saturated by high background annual N inputs from upstream agriculture. However, if the marsh is drowned by rising seas, as in our most extreme sea-level rise treatment, marsh plants will no longer provide the ecosystem service of buffering the coastal ocean from eutrophication.

Salt Marsh as a Coastal Filter for the Oceans: Changes in Function with Experimental Increases in Nitrogen Loading and Sea-Level Rise

PubMed Central

Nelson, Joanna L.; Zavaleta, Erika S.

2012-01-01

Coastal salt marshes are among Earth's most productive ecosystems and provide a number of ecosystem services, including interception of watershed-derived nitrogen (N) before it reaches nearshore oceans. Nitrogen pollution and climate change are two dominant drivers of global-change impacts on ecosystems, yet their interacting effects at the land-sea interface are poorly understood. We addressed how sea-level rise and anthropogenic N additions affect the salt marsh ecosystem process of nitrogen uptake using a field-based, manipulative experiment. We crossed simulated sea-level change and ammonium-nitrate (NH4NO3)-addition treatments in a fully factorial design to examine their potentially interacting effects on emergent marsh plants in a central California estuary. We measured above- and belowground biomass and tissue nutrient concentrations seasonally and found that N-addition had a significant, positive effect on a) aboveground biomass, b) plant tissue N concentrations, c) N stock sequestered in plants, and d) shoot:root ratios in summer. Relative sea-level rise did not significantly affect biomass, with the exception of the most extreme sea-level-rise simulation, in which all plants died by the summer of the second year. Although there was a strong response to N-addition treatments, salt marsh responses varied by season. Our results suggest that in our site at Coyote Marsh, Elkhorn Slough, coastal salt marsh plants serve as a robust N trap and coastal filter; this function is not saturated by high background annual N inputs from upstream agriculture. However, if the marsh is drowned by rising seas, as in our most extreme sea-level rise treatment, marsh plants will no longer provide the ecosystem service of buffering the coastal ocean from eutrophication. PMID:22879873

Forecasting sea cliff retreat in Southern California using process-based models and artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limber, P. W.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.

2016-02-01

Modeling coastal geomorphic change over multi-decadal time and regional spatial scales (i.e. >20 km alongshore) is in high demand due to rising global sea levels and heavily populated coastal zones, but is challenging for several reasons: adequate geomorphic and oceanographic data often does not exist over the entire study area or time period; models can be too computationally expensive; and model uncertainty is high. In the absence of rich datasets and unlimited computer processing power, researchers are forced to leverage existing data, however sparse, and find analytical methods that minimize computation time without sacrificing (too much) model reliability. Machine learning techniques, such as artificial neural networks, can assimilate and efficiently extrapolate geomorphic model behavior over large areas. They can also facilitate ensemble model forecasts over a broad range of parameter space, which is useful when a paucity of observational data inhibits the constraint of model parameters. Here, we assimilate the behavior of two established process-based sea cliff erosion and retreat models into a neural network to forecast the impacts of sea level rise on sea cliff retreat in Southern California ( 400 km) through the 21st century. Using inputs such as historical cliff retreat rates, mean wave power, and whether or not a beach is present, the neural network independently reproduces modeled sea cliff retreat as a function of sea level rise with a high degree of confidence (R2 > 0.9, mean squared error < 0.1 m yr-1). Results will continuously improve as more model scenarios are assimilated into the neural network, and more field data (i.e., cliff composition and rock hardness) becomes available to tune the cliff retreat models. Preliminary results suggest that sea level rise rates of 2 to 20 mm yr-1 during the next century could accelerate historical cliff retreat rates in Southern California by an average of 0.10 - 0.56 m yr-1.

Ice-sheet collapse and sea-level rise at the Bølling warming 14,600 years ago.

PubMed

Deschamps, Pierre; Durand, Nicolas; Bard, Edouard; Hamelin, Bruno; Camoin, Gilbert; Thomas, Alexander L; Henderson, Gideon M; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Yokoyama, Yusuke

2012-03-28

Past sea-level records provide invaluable information about the response of ice sheets to climate forcing. Some such records suggest that the last deglaciation was punctuated by a dramatic period of sea-level rise, of about 20 metres, in less than 500 years. Controversy about the amplitude and timing of this meltwater pulse (MWP-1A) has, however, led to uncertainty about the source of the melt water and its temporal and causal relationships with the abrupt climate changes of the deglaciation. Here we show that MWP-1A started no earlier than 14,650 years ago and ended before 14,310 years ago, making it coeval with the Bølling warming. Our results, based on corals drilled offshore from Tahiti during Integrated Ocean Drilling Project Expedition 310, reveal that the increase in sea level at Tahiti was between 12 and 22 metres, with a most probable value between 14 and 18 metres, establishing a significant meltwater contribution from the Southern Hemisphere. This implies that the rate of eustatic sea-level rise exceeded 40 millimetres per year during MWP-1A.

Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels; Molgaard, Mads; Andersen, Ole

2016-04-01

We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology, and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from future storm surges and other geo- and hydro-parameters need to be considered in order to provide for the best protection and mitigation efforts, however. Based on the results we present and discuss a simple conceptual model setup that can e.g. be used for 'translation' of regional sea level rise evidence and projections to concrete impact measures. This may be used by potentially affected stakeholders -often working in different sectors and across levels of governance, in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead. The model may also enter dynamic tools to evaluate local impact as sea level research advances and projections for the future are updated.

NASA Sea Level Change Portal - It not just another portal site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, T.; Quach, N.; Abercrombie, S. P.; Boening, C.; Brennan, H. P.; Gill, K. M.; Greguska, F. R., III; Jackson, R.; Larour, E. Y.; Shaftel, H.; Tenenbaum, L. F.; Zlotnicki, V.; Moore, B.; Moore, J.; Boeck, A.

2017-12-01

The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (https://sealevel.nasa.gov) is designed as a "one-stop" source for current sea level change information, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. With increasing global temperatures warming the ocean and melting ice sheets and glaciers, there is an immediate need both for accelerating sea level change research and for making this research accessible to scientists in disparate discipline, to the general public, to policy makers and business. The immersive and innovative NASA portal debuted at the 2015 AGU attracts thousands of daily visitors and over 30K followers on Facebook®. Behind its intuitive interface is an extensible architecture that integrates site contents, data for various sources, visualization, horizontal-scale geospatial data analytic technology (called NEXUS), and an interactive 3D simulation platform (called the Virtual Earth System Laboratory). We will present an overview of our NASA portal and some of our architectural decisions along with discussion on our open-source, cloud-based data analytic technology that enables on-the-fly analysis of heterogeneous data.

Occurrence of Quaternary turbidite deposits in the central South China Sea: Response to global sea-level changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Zhang, X.; Christophe, C.; Peleo-Alampay, A.; Guballa, J. D. S.; Li, P.; Liu, C.

2016-12-01

Terrigenous turbidite layers frequently occur at the upper 150-m-thick sedimentary sequence of Hole U1431D (15º22.54'N, 117 º00.00'E, 4240.5 m water depth), International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 349, near the relict spreading ridge in the central South China Sea. This study implies visual statistics combined with grain size, clay mineralogy, and Nd-Sr isotope analyses to reconstruct the occurrence of these turbidite layers. The age-model of combined calcareous nannofossils, planktonic foraminifers, and paleomagnetism suggests that the sedimentary sequence spans the entire Quaternary with an age of 2.6 Ma at the depth of 150 mcd below the seafloor. Our results show that the turbidite deposits are dominated by silt with sandy silt and silty clay, poorly sorted, and grading upward with erosion base. The occurrence of turbidite layers are highly frequent with about 3.06 layers per meter and an average thickness of 14.64 cm per layer above 96 mcd ( 1.6 Ma), while the lower part turbudite layers are less frequently developed with 1.16 layers per meter and an average thickness of 5.67 cm. Provenance analysis indicates that Taiwan, about 900 km northward to the studied site, is the major source for these terrigenous sediments, implying the long run-out turbidity current activity over the very low-gradient deep-sea plain of the South China Sea. The frequency of the turbidite layer occurrence is well correlated to the Quaternary global sea-level change history, with the high frequency occurred during the lower sea-level stands. Our study suggests that the glacial-interglacial-scale sea-level change has controlled terrigenous sediment input from Taiwan and the northern shelf of the South China Sea during the Quaternary. The increase of turbidite layer frequency since 1.6 Ma in the central South China Sea could be triggered by the enlarged amplitude of sea-level change.

Visible and Thermal Imaging of Sea Ice and Open Water from Coast Guard Arctic Domain Awareness Flights

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

dropsondes, micro- aircraft), cloud top/base heights Arctic Ocean Surface Temperature project Steele Buoy drops for SLP , SST, SSS, & surface velocity...Colón & Vancas (NIC) Drop buoys for SLP , temperature and surface velocity Waves & Fetch in the MIZ Thompson SWIFTS buoys measuring wave energy...Expendable CTD, AXCP= Air Expendable Current Profiler, SLP = Sea Level atmospheric Pressure, SST= Seas Surface Temperature, A/C= aircraft, FSD= Floe Size Distribution, SIC=Sea Ice Concentration

Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise of Bolinao, Pangasinan Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, S. R. C.; Blanco, A. C.

2012-07-01

A number of studies assessing the vulnerability of Southeast Asia to climate change have classified the Philippines as one of the vulnerable countries in the region. Bolinao, Pangasinan is a municipality located in northwestern Luzon, situated in the western part of the Lingayen Gulf and is bounded on the north and west by the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Recent studies have verified the varying trends in sea level across the South China Sea, which is considered as one of the largest, semi-enclosed marginal seas in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Three barangays (villages) were included in the study: (1) Luciente 1.0, (2) Concordia and (3) Germinal. The Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index (SVI) was computed based on population, age, gender, employment, source of income and household size, which were gathered through a qualitative survey in the selected barangays. The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) described the physical vulnerability of these coastal communities based on recorded sea level anomalies and significant wave heights of multiple satellite altimetry missions, coastal topography derived from the 25-m SRTM digital elevation model (DEM), bathymetry from WorldView-2 and additional elevation data from terrestrial laser scanning surveys. The research utilized merged satellite altimetry data downloaded from the Radar Altimetry Database System (RADS), which covered the period from 1991-2010. The SVI and CVI were calculated and evaluated in ArcGIS. The SVI and CVI were integrated to determine the Total Vulnerability Index (TVI), which characterized the vulnerability of the three barangays in five classes, from very low to very high vulnerability.

Do we have to take an acceleration of sea level rise into account?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dillingh, D.; Baart, F.; de Ronde, J.

2012-04-01

In view of preservation of safety against inundation and of the many values and functions of the coastal zone, coastal retreat is no longer acceptable. That is why it was decided to maintain the Dutch coastline on its position in 1990. Later the preservation concept was extended to the Dutch coastal foundation, which is the area that encompasses all dune area's and hard sea defences and reaches seawards until the 20m depth contour line. Present Dutch coastal policy is to grow with sea level by means of sand nourishments. A main issue for the planning of sand nourishments is the rate of sea level rise, because that is the main parameter for the volume of the sand needed. The question is than relevant if we already have to take into account an acceleration of sea level rise. Six stations with long water level records, well spread along the Dutch coast, were analysed. Correction of the measured data was considered necessary for an adaptation of the NAP in 2005 as a consequence of movements of the top of the pleistoceen, on which the NAP bench marks have been founded, and for the 18.6 year (nodal) cycle in the time series of yearly mean sea levels. It has been concluded that along the Dutch coast no significant acceleration of sea level rise could be detected yet. Over the last 120 years sea level rose with an average speed of 19 cm per century relative to NAP (the Dutch ordnance datum). Time series shorter than about 50 years showed less robust estimates of sea level rise. Future sea level rise also needs consideration in view of the estimate of future sand nourishment volumes. Scenario's for sea level rise have been derived for the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 1990 by the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) in 2006 for the Dutch situation. Plausible curves have been drawn from 1990 tangent to the linear regression line in 1990 and forced through the high and low scenario projections for 2050 and 2100. These curves show discrepancies with measurements of the last decade, particularly for the high scenario. Dutch design levels for coastal water defence structures (dikes and dunes) are based on extreme value statistics of long time series of high water levels. These design levels have typically return periods of 2000, 4000 and 10.000 years, depending on the importance of the protected dike ring. The last statistical analysis for the update of the design levels refers to the sea level situation of 1985. According to the Water Act Dutch design levels must be tested periodically (every 6 years). Due to sea level rise and tidal changes the design levels are corrected for the rise of the mean high waters from 1985 until the end of the testing period under consideration. This demands a tailoring approach for different regions or locations instead of a national average as for coastal preservation. Runs with climate models and coupled hydrodynamic models in the framework of the Essence project and the Delta Committee 2008 showed no indication for a change in the statistics of extreme storm surge levels. For the estimation of sea level rise over the last 120 years a linear regression gives the most robust estimate. Showing decadal variability needs more sophisticated models. For the last update of the design levels the elegant Whittaker smoother has been applied. Dutch policy prescribes to account for a future sea level rise of 60 cm per century for the design of new dikes or dike reinforcements and 85 cm per century for the long term (200 years) allocation of space for future reinforcements, in agreement with the KNMI'06 scenario's for sea level rise (central value and upper limit).

Geomorphological & Geoarchaeological Indicators of the Holocene Sea-Level Changes on Ras El Hekma Area, NW Coast of Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torab, Magdy

2016-02-01

Ras El Hekma area is a part of the NW coast of Egypt. It is located on the Egyptian Mediterranean Coast, approximately 220 km West of Alexandria City. It is shaped as a triangle with its headland extending into the Mediterranean sea for about 15 km, and is occupied by sedimentary rocks belonging to the Tertiary and Quaternary Eras. Its western coastline consists of Pleistocene Oolitic limestone ridges with separated steep scarps, while the eastern coastline consists of sandy beaches, coastal spits, coastal bars, tombolos and bays. The objective of this paper is to define some geomorphological and geoarchaelological indicators of The Holocene sea-level changes in the study area, especially the geomorphic landforms such as: marine notches, cliffs, sea caves and benches. This is to add to some archaeological remains that have been discovered by the paper's author under the current sea level. These remains include: submerged ruins of Greek and Roman harbors, wells and fish tanks near the coastline (Leuke Akte, Hermaea, Phoinikous and Zygris), in addition to an ancient Roman harbor used during the World War II in Tell El Zaytun area (Site #6). Evaluations of the discovered archaeological remains help our understanding of the evolution of the sea level during the Holocene. This study is based on observation of the relative sea-level curves drawn of the Holocene, detailed geomorphological and Geoarchaelogical surveying, sampling, dating and mapping as well as satellite image interpretation and GIS techniques.

Absolute Sea-level Changes Derived from Integrated Geodetic Datasets (1955-2016) in the Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, L.; Wang, G.; Liu, H.

2017-12-01

Rising sea level has important direct impacts on coastal and island regions such as the Caribbean where the influence of sea-level rise is becoming more apparent. The Caribbean Sea is a semi-enclosed sea adjacent to the landmasses of South and Central America to the south and west, and the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles separate it from the Atlantic Ocean to the north and east. The work focus on studying the relative and absolute sea-level changes by integrating tide gauge, GPS, and satellite altimetry datasets (1955-2016) within the Caribbean Sea. Further, the two main components of absolute sea-level change, ocean mass and steric sea-level changes, are respectively studied using GRACE, temperature, and salinity datasets (1955-2016). According to the analysis conducted, the sea-level change rates have considerable temporal and spatial variations, and estimates may be subject to the techniques used and observation periods. The average absolute sea-level rise rate is 1.8±0.3 mm/year for the period from 1955 to 2015 according to the integrated tide gauge and GPS observations; the average absolute sea-level rise rate is 3.5±0.6 mm/year for the period from 1993 to 2016 according to the satellite altimetry observations. This study shows that the absolute sea-level change budget in the Caribbean Sea is closed in the periods from 1955 to 2016, in which ocean mass change dominates the absolute sea-level rise. The absolute sea-level change budget is also closed in the periods from 2004 to 2016, in which steric sea-level rise dominates the absolute sea-level rise.

Hierarchy of sedimentary discontinuity surfaces and condensed beds from the middle Paleozoic of eastern North America: Implications for cratonic sequence stratigraphy

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaughlin, P.I.; Brett, Carlton E.; Wilson, M.A.

2008-01-01

Sedimentological analyses of middle Paleozoic epeiric sea successions in North America suggest a hierarchy of discontinuity surfaces and condensed beds of increasing complexity. Simple firmgrounds and hardgrounds, which are comparatively ephemeral features, form the base of the hierarchy. Composite hardgrounds, reworked concretions, authigenic mineral crusts and monomictic intraformational conglomerates indicate more complex histories. Polymictic intraformational conglomerates, ironstones and phosphorites form the most complex discontinuity surfaces and condensed beds. Complexity of discontinuities is closely linked to depositional environments duration of sediment starvation and degree of reworking which in turn show a relationship to stratigraphic cyclicity. A model of cratonic sequence stratigraphy is generated by combining data on the complexity and lateral distribution of discontinuities in the context of facies successions. Lowstand, early transgressive and late transgressive systems tracts are representative of sea-level rise. Early and late transgressive systems tracts are separated by the maximum starvation surface (typically a polymictic intraformational conglomerate or condensed phosphorite), deposited during the peak rate of sea-level rise. Conversely the maximum flooding surface, representing the highest stand of sea level, is marked by little to no break in sedimentation. The highstand and falling stage systems tracts are deposited during relative sea-level fall. They are separated by the forced-regression surface, a thin discontinuity surface or condensed bed developed during the most rapid rate of sea-level fall. The lowest stand of sea level is marked by the sequence boundary. In subaerially exposed areas it is occasionally modified as a rockground or composite hardground.

Long-period sea-level variations in the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerbini, Susanna; Raicich, Fabio; Bruni, Sara; del Conte, Sara; Errico, Maddalena; Prati, Claudio; Santi, Efisio

2016-04-01

Since the beginning of its long-lasting lifetime, the Wegener initiative has devoted careful consideration to studying sea-level variations/changes across the Mediterranean Sea. Our study focuses on several long-period sea-level time series (from end of 1800 to 2012) acquired in the Mediterranean by tide gauge stations. In general, the analysis and interpretation of these data sets can provide an important contribution to research on climate change and its impacts. We have analyzed the centennial sea-level time series of six fairly well documented tide gauges. They are: Marseille, in France, Alicante in Spain, Genoa, Trieste, Venice and Marina di Ravenna (formerly Porto Corsini), in Italy. The data of the Italian stations of Marina di Ravenna and Venice clearly indicate that land subsidence is responsible for most of the observed rate of relative sea level rise. It is well known that, in the two areas, subsidence is caused by both natural processes and human activities. For these two stations, using levelling data of benchmarks at, and/or close to, the tide gauges, and for the recent years, also GPS and InSAR height time series, modelling of the long-period non-linear behavior of subsidence was successfully accomplished. After removing the land vertical motions, the estimate of the linear long-period sea-level rise at all six stations yielded remarkably consistent values, between +1,2 and +1,3 mm/yr, with associated errors ranging from ±0,2 to ±0,3 mm/yr (95% confidence interval), which also account for the statistical autocorrelation of the time series. These trends in the Mediterranean area are lower than the global mean rate of 1,7±0,2 mm/yr (1901-2010) presented by the IPCC in its 5th Assessment Report; however, they are in full agreement with a global mean sea-level rise estimate, over the period 1901-1990, recently published by Hay et al. (2015, doi:10.1038/nature14093) and obtained using probabilistic techniques that combine sea-level records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the contributing processes. An EOF analysis (Empirical Orthogonal Functions) has also been carried out on the six sea-level time series to identify the dominant modes of variability.

Apparent Sea Level Rise due to Loading of the Atlantic City Pier by Spectators Viewing (1929-1978) Diving Horses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galvin, C.

2012-12-01

Cyril Galvin, Coastal Engineer Springfield, Virginia 22150 USA Since 1911, the Steel Pier at Atlantic City, New Jersey, has been the site of the Atlantic City tide gauge, except for two intervals: 1911-1921 when the gauge was at the Million Dollar Pier in Atlantic City, and 1985-1991 when the gauge was at the Ventnor Fishing Pier (see Table 2, Zervos, 2009). By design, the Steel Pier was an amusement pier, and its most famous amusement was the Diving Horses: they dove bareback with a woman rider from a platform about 40 feet above sea level. They did that between 1929 and 1978, except for seven years - a post-war period, 1945 to 1953, when diving was suspended. The popularity of the diving horses is recorded on photos of crowds which occupied the bleachers at the seaward end of the pier to view the diving horses. By my count, the crowd pictured in the end papers of the book by Steve Liebowitz (2009) was about 4000 people. Typically, there were multiple shows daily. The weight of the crowd, estimated from the count of the crowd, was about 150 tons. This weight was loaded down on the piles by the crowd of spectators, and unloaded between shows of the diving horses. Most of the piles supporting the pier deck were imbedded in sand newly deposited since 1850. Using Atlantic City sea levels from the PSMSL data base and historical facts from Liebowitz (2009), and beginning with a 1912 start of the tide gauge, the apparent sea level rose at a rate of 3.1mm/yr until 1929 when the horses began diving. With the 1929 start of diving, the apparent sea level rise tripled, averaging 9.4 mm/yr until the act was suspended in 1945. In the 1945-1953 interval, when the horses did not dive (no crowds on the pier), apparent sea level fell (sea level FELL) at a rate of -1.6 mm/yr. The horses resumed diving in 1953, when the apparent sea level resumed at a rate of 4.0mm/yr. This 4.0 mm/yr is identical to the longtime sea level trend (1911-2006) from Zervos (2009) of 3.99mm/yr The history of apparent sea level rise at Steel Pier is consistent with increases caused by loading the pier deck with crowds, and the absence of apparent sea level rise when the pier deck was not loaded by spectators. CG/08Aug 2012

Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA.

PubMed

Rice, Karen C; Hong, Bo; Shen, Jian

2012-11-30

Global sea level is rising, and the relative rate in the Chesapeake Bay region of the East Coast of the United States is greater than the worldwide rate. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. The effects of future sea-level rise on two tributaries of Chesapeake Bay, the James and Chickahominy (CHK) Rivers, were evaluated in order to quantify the salinity change with respect to the magnitude of sea-level rise. Such changes are critical to: 1) local floral and faunal habitats that have limited tolerance ranges to salinity; and 2) a drinking-water supply for the City of Newport News, Virginia. By using the three-dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), sea-level rise scenarios of 30, 50, and 100 cm, based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for the mid-Atlantic region for the 21st century, were evaluated. The model results indicate that salinity increases in the entire river as sea level rises and that the salinity increase in a dry year is greater than that in a typical year. In the James River, the salinity increase in the middle-to-upper river (from 25 to 50 km upstream of the mouth) is larger than that in the lower and upper parts of the river. The maximum mean salinity increase would be 2 and 4 ppt for a sea-level rise of 50 and 100 cm, respectively. The upstream movement of the 10 ppt isohaline is much larger than the 5 and 20 ppt isohalines. The volume of water with salinity between 10 and 20 ppt would increase greatly if sea level rises 100 cm. In the CHK River, with a sea-level rise of 100 cm, the mean salinity at the drinking-water intake 34 km upstream of the mouth would be about 3 ppt in a typical year and greater than 5 ppt in a dry year, both far in excess of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's secondary standard for total dissolved solids for drinking water. At the drinking-water intake, the number of days of salinity greater than 0.1 ppt increases with increasing sea-level rise; during a dry year, 0.1 ppt would be exceeded for more than 100 days with as small a rise as 30 cm. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen; Bo Hong,; Jian Shen,

2012-01-01

Global sea level is rising, and the relative rate in the Chesapeake Bay region of the East Coast of the United States is greater than the worldwide rate. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. The effects of future sea-level rise on two tributaries of Chesapeake Bay, the James and Chickahominy (CHK) Rivers, were evaluated in order to quantify the salinity change with respect to the magnitude of sea-level rise. Such changes are critical to: 1) local floral and faunal habitats that have limited tolerance ranges to salinity; and 2) a drinking-water supply for the City of Newport News, Virginia. By using the three-dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), sea-level rise scenarios of 30, 50, and 100 cm, based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for the mid-Atlantic region for the 21st century, were evaluated. The model results indicate that salinity increases in the entire river as sea level rises and that the salinity increase in a dry year is greater than that in a typical year. In the James River, the salinity increase in the middle-to-upper river (from 25 to 50 km upstream of the mouth) is larger than that in the lower and upper parts of the river. The maximum mean salinity increase would be 2 and 4 ppt for a sea-level rise of 50 and 100 cm, respectively. The upstream movement of the 10 ppt isohaline is much larger than the 5 and 20 ppt isohalines. The volume of water with salinity between 10 and 20 ppt would increase greatly if sea level rises 100 cm. In the CHK River, with a sea-level rise of 100 cm, the mean salinity at the drinking-water intake 34 km upstream of the mouth would be about 3 ppt in a typical year and greater than 5 ppt in a dry year, both far in excess of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's secondary standard for total dissolved solids for drinking water. At the drinking-water intake, the number of days of salinity greater than 0.1 ppt increases with increasing sea-level rise; during a dry year, 0.1 ppt would be exceeded for more than 100 days with as small a rise as 30 cm.

Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, J. Andrew G.; Pilkey, Orrin H.

2004-11-01

In the face of a global rise in sea level, understanding the response of the shoreline to changes in sea level is a critical scientific goal to inform policy makers and managers. A body of scientific information exists that illustrates both the complexity of the linkages between sea-level rise and shoreline response, and the comparative lack of understanding of these linkages. In spite of the lack of understanding, many appraisals have been undertaken that employ a concept known as the "Bruun Rule". This is a simple two-dimensional model of shoreline response to rising sea level. The model has seen near global application since its original formulation in 1954. The concept provided an advance in understanding of the coastal system at the time of its first publication. It has, however, been superseded by numerous subsequent findings and is now invalid. Several assumptions behind the Bruun Rule are known to be false and nowhere has the Bruun Rule been adequately proven; on the contrary several studies disprove it in the field. No universally applicable model of shoreline retreat under sea-level rise has yet been developed. Despite this, the Bruun Rule is in widespread contemporary use at a global scale both as a management tool and as a scientific concept. The persistence of this concept beyond its original assumption base is attributed to the following factors: Appeal of a simple, easy to use analytical model that is in widespread use. Difficulty of determining the relative validity of 'proofs' and 'disproofs'. Ease of application. Positive advocacy by some scientists. Application by other scientists without critical appraisal. The simple numerical expression of the model. Lack of easy alternatives. The Bruun Rule has no power for predicting shoreline behaviour under rising sea level and should be abandoned. It is a concept whose time has passed. The belief by policy makers that it offers a prediction of future shoreline position may well have stifled much-needed research into the coastal response to sea-level rise.

Infilling and flooding of the Mekong River incised valley during deglacial sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjallingii, Rik; Stattegger, Karl; Wetzel, Andreas; Van Phach, Phung

2010-06-01

The abrupt transition from fluvial to marine deposition of incised-valley-fill sediments retrieved from the southeast Vietnamese shelf, accurately records the postglacial transgression after 14 ka before present (BP). Valley-filling sediments consist of fluvial mud, whereas sedimentation after the transgression is characterized by shallow-marine carbonate sands. This change in sediment composition is accurately marked in high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning records. Rapid aggradation of fluvial sediments at the river mouth nearly completely filled the Mekong incised valley prior to flooding. However, accumulation rates strongly reduced in the valley after the river-mouth system flooded and stepped back. This also affected the sediment supply to deeper parts of the southeast Vietnamese shelf. Comparison of the Mekong valley-filling with the East Asian sea-level history of sub- and inter-tidal sediment records shows that the transgressive surface preserved in the incised-valley-fill records is a robust sea-level indicator. The valley was nearly completely filled with fluvial sediments between 13.0 and 9.5 ka BP when sea-level rose rather constantly with approximately 10 mm/yr, as indicated by the East Asian sea-level record. At shallower parts of the shelf, significant sediment reworking and the establishment of estuarine conditions at the final stage of infilling complicates accurate dating of the transgressive surface. Nevertheless, incised-valley-fill records and land-based drill sites indicate a vast and rapid flooding of the shelf from the location of the modern Vietnamese coastline to the Cambodian lowlands between 9.5 ka and 8.5 ka BP. Fast flooding of this part of the shelf is related with the low shelf gradient and a strong acceleration of the East Asian sea-level rise from 34 to 9 meter below modern sea level (mbsl) corresponding to the sea-level jump of melt water pulse (MWP) 1C.

Determining the response of sea level to atmospheric pressure forcing using TOPEX/POSEIDON data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Pihos, Greg

1994-01-01

The static response of sea level to the forcing of atmospheric pressure, the so-called inverted barometer (IB) effect, is investigated using TOPEX/POSEIDON data. This response, characterized by the rise and fall of sea level to compensate for the change of atmospheric pressure at a rate of -1 cm/mbar, is not associated with any ocean currents and hence is normally treated as an error to be removed from sea level observation. Linear regression and spectral transfer function analyses are applied to sea level and pressure to examine the validity of the IB effect. In regions outside the tropics, the regression coefficient is found to be consistently close to the theoretical value except for the regions of western boundary currents, where the mesoscale variability interferes with the IB effect. The spectral transfer function shows near IB response at periods of 30 degrees is -0.84 +/- 0.29 cm/mbar (1 standard deviation). The deviation from = 1 cm /mbar is shown to be caused primarily by the effect of wind forcing on sea level, based on multivariate linear regression model involving both pressure and wind forcing. The regression coefficient for pressure resulting from the multivariate analysis is -0.96 +/- 0.32 cm/mbar. In the tropics the multivariate analysis fails because sea level in the tropics is primarily responding to remote wind forcing. However, after removing from the data the wind-forced sea level estimated by a dynamic model of the tropical Pacific, the pressure regression coefficient improves from -1.22 +/- 0.69 cm/mbar to -0.99 +/- 0.46 cm/mbar, clearly revealing an IB response. The result of the study suggests that with a proper removal of the effect of wind forcing the IB effect is valid in most of the open ocean at periods longer than 20 days and spatial scales larger than 500 km.

Comparison of absorption properties of colored dissolved organic matter in six different case 2 water bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nima, Ciren; Frette, Øyvind; Hamre, Børge; Erga, Svein Rune; Chen, Yi-Chun; Zhao, Lu; Muyimbwa, Dennis; Ssenyonga, Taddeo; Ssebiyonga, Nicolausi; Okullo, Willy; Stamnes, Knut; Stamnes, Jakob J.

2017-02-01

Colored Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM) is one of the main factors controlling the penetration of solar radiation in Case 2 water and affecting satellite-based estimation of ocean color. We present absorption properties of CDOM sampled in 6 water bodies including three in Norway (Røst coastal water, Samnangerfjord, Lysefjord), two in China (Bohai Sea, Lake Namtso), and one in Africa (Lake Victoria). These locations, which range from near the equator to subarctic regions, include water types from oligotrophic to eutrophic, and altitudes from sea level to 4,700 m above sea level.

Regional sea level projections with observed gauge, altimeter and reconstructed data along China coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, L.; Shi, H.; Zhang, S.

2017-12-01

Acting as the typical shelf seas in northwest Pacific Ocean, regional sea level along China coasts exhibits complicated and multiscale spatial-temporal characteristics under circumstance of global change. In this paper, sea level variability is investigated with tide gauges records, satellite altimetry data, reconstructed sea surface height, and CMIP simulation fields. Sea level exhibits the interannual variability imposing on a remarkable sea level rising in the China seas and coastal region, although its seasonal signals are significant as the results of global ocean. Sea level exhibits faster rising rate during the satellite altimetry era, nearly twice to the rate during the last sixty years. AVISO data and reconstructed sea surface heights illustrate good correlation coefficient, more than 0.8. Interannual sea level variation is mainly modulated by the low-frequency variability of wind fields over northern Pacific Ocean by local and remote processes. Meanwhile sea level varies obviously by the transport fluctuation and bimodality path of Kuroshio. Its variability possibly linked to internal variability of the ocean-atmosphere system influenced by ENSO oscillation. China Sea level have been rising during the 20th century, and are projected to continue to rise during this century. Sea level can reach the highest extreme level in latter half of 21st century. Modeled sea level including regional sea level projection combined with the IPCC climate scenarios play a significant role on coastal storm surge evolution. The vulnerable regions along the ECS coast will suffer from the increasing storm damage with sea level variations.

A New CCI ECV Release (v2.0) to Accurately Measure the Sea Level Change from space (1993-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, Jean-Francois; Benveniste, Jérôme

2017-04-01

Accurate monitoring of the sea level is required to better understand its variability and changes. Sea level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing a long-term homogeneous and accurate sea level record. The needs and feedback of the climate research community have been collected so that the development of the products is adapted to the users. A first version of the sea level ECV product has been generated during phase I of the project (2011-2013). Within phase II (2014-2016), the 15 partner consortium has prepared the production of a new reprocessed homogeneous and accurate altimeter sea level record which is now available (see http://www.esa-sealevel-cci.org/products ). New level 2 altimeter standards developed and tested within the project as well as external contributions have been identified, processed and evaluated by comparison with a reference for different altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 & 2, ERS-1 & 2, Envisat, GFO, SARAL/AltiKa and CryoSat-2). The main evolutions are associated with the wet troposphere correction (based on the GPD+ algorithm including inter calibration with respect to external sensors) but also to the orbit solutions (POE-E and GFZ15), the ERA-Interim based atmospheric corrections and the FES2014 ocean tide model. A new pole tide solution is used and anomalies are referenced to the MSS DTU15. The presentation will focus on the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level project and on the description of the new SL_cci ECV release covering 1993-2015. The major steps required to produce the reprocessed 23 year climate time series will be described. The impacts of the selected level 2 altimeter standards on the SL_cci ECV have been assessed on different spatial scales (global, regional, mesoscale) and temporal scales (long-term, inter-annual, periodic signals). A significant improvement is observed compared to the current v1.1, with the main impacts observed on the long-term evolution on decadal time scale, on global and regional scales, and for mesoscale signals. The results from product validation, carried out by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community will be also presented.

A New CCI ECV Release (v2.0) to Accurately Measure the Sea Level Change (1993-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, J.; Cazenave, A. A.; Ablain, M.; Gilles, G.; Johannessen, J. A.; Scharffenberg, M. G.; Timms, G.; Andersen, O. B.; Cipollini, P.; Roca, M.; Rudenko, S.; Fernandes, J.; Balmaseda, M.; Quartly, G.; Fenoglio Marc, L.; Meyssignac, B.; Benveniste, J.; Ambrozio, A.; Restano, M.

2016-12-01

Accurate monitoring of the sea level is required to better understand its variability and changes. Sea level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing a long-term homogeneous and accurate sea level record. The needs and feedback of the climate research community have been collected and a first version of the sea level ECV product has been generated with the best algorithms and altimeter standards. This record (1993-2014) has been validated by the climate research community. Within phase II (2014-2016), the 15 partner consortium has prepared the production of a new reprocessed homogeneous and accurate altimeter sea level record which will be distributed in Autumn 2016. New level 2 altimeter standards developed and tested within the project as well as external contributions have been identified, processed and evaluated by comparison with a reference for different altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 & 2, ERS-1 & 2, Envisat and GFO). The main evolutions are associated with the wet troposphere correction (based on the GPD+ algorithm including inter calibration with respect to external sensors) but also to the orbit solutions (POE-E and GFZ15), the ERA-Interim based atmospheric corrections and the FES2014 ocean tide model. A new pole tide solution is used and anomalies are referenced to the MSS DTU15. The presentation will focus on the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level project and on the description of the new SL_cci ECV release covering 1993-2015. The major steps required to produce the reprocessed 23 year climate time series will be described. The impacts of the selected level 2 altimeter standards on the SL_cci ECV have been assessed on different spatial scales (global, regional, mesoscale) and temporal scales (long-term, inter-annual, periodic). A significant improvement is expected compared to the current v1.1, with the main impacts observed on the long-term evolution on decadal time scale, on global and regional scales, and for mesoscale signals. The results from product validation, carried out by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community will be also presented.

Late Quaternary depositional history, Holocene sea-level changes, and vertical crustal movement, southern San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atwater, Brian F.; Hedel, Charles W.; Helley, Edward J.

1977-01-01

Sediments collected for bridge foundation studies at southern San Francisco Bay, Calif., record estuaries that formed during Sangamon (100,000 years ago) and post-Wisconsin (less than 10,000 years ago) high stands of sea level. The estuarine deposits of Sangamon and post-Wisconsin ages are separated by alluvial and eolian deposits and by erosional unconformities and surfaces of nondeposition, features that indicate lowered base levels and oceanward migrations of the shoreline accompanying low stands of the sea. Estuarine deposits of mid-Wisconsin age appear to be absent, suggesting that sea level was not near its present height 30,000–40,000 years ago in central California. Holocene sea-level changes are measured from the elevations and apparent 14C ages of plant remains from 13 core samples. Uncertainties of ±2 to ±4 m in the elevations of the dated sea levels represent the sum of errors in determination of (1) sample elevation relative to present sea level, (2) sample elevation relative to sea level at the time of accumulation of the dated material, and (3) postdepositional subsidence of the sample due to compaction of underlying sediments. Sea level in the vicinity of southern San Francisco Bay rose about 2 cm/yr from 9,500 to 8,000 years ago. The rate of relative sea-level rise then declined about tenfold from 8,000 to 6,000 years ago, and it has averaged 0.1–0.2 cm/yr from 6,000 years ago to the present. This submergence history indicates that the rising sea entered the Golden Gate 10,000–11,000 years ago and spread across land areas as rapidly as 30 m/yr until 8,000 years ago. Subsequent shoreline changes were more gradual because of the decrease in rate of sea-level rise. Some of the sediments under southern San Francisco Bay appear to be below the level at which they initially accumulated. The vertical crustal movement suggested by these sediments may be summarized as follows: (1) Some Quaternary(?) sediments have sustained at least 100 m of tectonic subsidence in less than 1.5 million years (<0.07 mm/yr) relative to the likely elevation of the lowest Pleistocene land surface; (2) the deepest Sangamon estuarine deposits subsided tectonically about 20–40 m in about 0.1 million years (0.2±0.1–0.4±0.1 mm/yr) relative to the assumed initial elevations of the thalwegs buried by these sediments; and (3) Holocene salt-marsh deposits have undergone about 5 m of tectonic and possibly isostatic subsidence in about 6,000 years (0.8±.0.7 mm/yr) relative to elevations which might be expected from eustatic sea-level changes alone.

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade

PubMed Central

Price, Stephen F.; Payne, Antony J.; Howat, Ian M.; Smith, Benjamin E.

2011-01-01

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing. PMID:21576500

Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade.

PubMed

Price, Stephen F; Payne, Antony J; Howat, Ian M; Smith, Benjamin E

2011-05-31

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing.

Plants Regulate Soil Organic Matter Decomposition in Response to Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Megonigal, P.; Mueller, P.; Jensen, K.

2014-12-01

Tidal wetlands have a large capacity for producing and storing organic matter, making their role in the global carbon budget disproportionate to their land area. Most of the organic matter stored in these systems is in soils where it contributes 2-5 times more to surface accretion than an equal mass of minerals. Soil organic matter (SOM) sequestration is the primary process by which tidal wetlands become perched high in the tidal frame, decreasing their vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise. Plant growth responses to sea level rise are well understood and represented in century-scale forecast models of soil surface elevation change. We understand far less about the response of soil organic matter decomposition to rapid sea level rise. Here we quantified the effects of sea level on SOM decomposition rates by exposing planted and unplanted tidal marsh monoliths to experimentally manipulated flood duration. The study was performed in a field-based mesocosm facility at the Smithsonian's Global Change Research Wetland. SOM decomposition rate was quantified as CO2 efflux, with plant- and SOM-derived CO2 separated with a two end-member δ13C-CO2 model. Despite the dogma that decomposition rates are inversely related to flooding, SOM mineralization was not sensitive to flood duration over a 35 cm range in soil surface elevation. However, decomposition rates were strongly and positively related to aboveground biomass (R2≥0.59, p≤0.01). We conclude that soil carbon loss through decomposition is driven by plant responses to sea level in this intensively studied tidal marsh. If this result applies more generally to tidal wetlands, it has important implications for modeling soil organic matter and surface elevation change in response to accelerated sea level rise.

Early-to-middle Holocene sea-level fluctuations, coastal progradation and the Neolithic occupations in Yaojiang valley of southern Hangzhou bay, eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Sun, Q.; Fan, D.; Chen, Z.

2017-12-01

The formation of Holocene coast in eastern China provided material base for the development of Neolithic civilizations. The coastal Yaojiang valley of south Hangzhou bay was one of the examples where the well-known Neolithic Hemudu Culture (HC) of Eastern China initiated. Here, we studied the early-to-middle Holocene environment changes in relation to sea-level fluctuations on the basis of a serial of sediment cores based on a set of new Accelerator Mass Spectrometry radiocarbon (AMS 14C) chronology. The result indicated that relative sea-level rose rapidly in the Yaojiang valley at the early Holocene, reaching its maximum at ca. 8000-7800 cal yr BP and then decelerated at ca. 7800-7500 cal yr BP. The alluvial plain in Yaojiang valley began to form at the foothills first and then grew towards the valley center accompanying with the sea-level stabilization after ca. 7500 cal yr BP. This progressive progradation of alluvial plain would attract the early arrivals of foragers to dwell at the foothills to engaging in rice farming after ca.7000 cal yr BP and starting the epic Hemudu Culture. The HC people then move down to the valley center as more land became available thanks to sediment aggregation and progradation. The rise and development of HC were closely associated with the sea-level induced landscape changes in Yaojiang valley at the early-middle Holocene, and the unstable hydraulic condition in the valley after 5000 cal yr BP could be accountable for the cultural termination.

GPS Imaging of Global Vertical Land Motion for Sea Level Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.; Hamlington, B. D.

2015-12-01

Coastal vertical land motion contributes to the signal of local relative sea level change. Moreover, understanding global sea level change requires understanding local sea level rise at many locations around Earth. It is therefore essential to understand the regional secular vertical land motion attributable to mantle flow, tectonic deformation, glacial isostatic adjustment, postseismic viscoelastic relaxation, groundwater basin subsidence, elastic rebound from groundwater unloading or other processes that can change the geocentric height of tide gauges anchored to the land. These changes can affect inferences of global sea level rise and should be taken into account for global projections. We present new results of GPS imaging of vertical land motion across most of Earth's continents including its ice-free coastlines around North and South America, Europe, Australia, Japan, parts of Africa and Indonesia. These images are based on data from many independent open access globally distributed continuously recording GPS networks including over 13,500 stations. The data are processed in our system to obtain solutions aligned to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF08). To generate images of vertical rate we apply the Median Interannual Difference Adjusted for Skewness (MIDAS) algorithm to the vertical times series to obtain robust non-parametric estimates with realistic uncertainties. We estimate the vertical land motion at the location of 1420 tide gauges locations using Delaunay-based geographic interpolation with an empirically derived distance weighting function and median spatial filtering. The resulting image is insensitive to outliers and steps in the GPS time series, omits short wavelength features attributable to unstable stations or unrepresentative rates, and emphasizes long-wavelength mantle-driven vertical rates.

A Coastal Hazards Data Base for the U.S. Gulf Coast (1993) (NDP-04bB)

DOE Data Explorer

Gornitz, Vivien M. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (USA); White, Tammy W. [CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (USA)

2008-01-01

This document describes the contents of a digital data base that may be used to identify coastlines along the U.S. Gulf Coast at risk to sea-level rise. The data base integrates point, line, and polygon data for the U.S. Gulf Coast into 0.25° latitude by 0.25° longitude grid cells and into 1:2,000,000 digitized line segments that can be used by raster or vector geographic information systems (GIS) as well as by non-GIS data base systems. Each coastal grid cell and line segment contains data on elevations, geology, geomorphology, sea-level trends, shoreline displacement (erosion/accretion), tidal ranges, and wave heights.

Vertical accretion and shallow subsidence in a mangrove forest of southwestern Florida, U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cahoon, D.R.; Lynch, J.C.

1997-01-01

Simultaneous measurements of vertical accretion from artificial soil marker horizons and soil elevation change from sedimentation-erosion table (SET) plots were used to evaluate the processes related to soil building in range, basin, and overwash mangrove forests located in a low-energy lagoon which recieves minor inputs of terregenous sediments. Vertical accretion measures reflect the contribution of surficial sedimentation (sediment deposition and surface root growth). Measures of elevation change reflect not only the contributions of vertical accretion but also those of subsurface processes such as compaction, decomposition and shrink-swell. The two measures were used to calculate amounts of shallow subsidence (accretion minus elevation change) in each mangrove forest. The three forest types represent different accretionary envrionments. The basin forest was located behind a natural berm. Hydroperiod here was controlled primarily by rainfall rather than tidal exchange, although the basin flooded during extreme tidal events. Soil accretion here occurred primarily by autochthonous organic matter inputs, and elevation was controlled by accretion and shrink-swell of the substrate apparently related to cycles of flooding-drying and/or root growth-decomposition. This hydrologically-restricted forest did not experience an accretion or elevation deficit relative to sea-level rise. The tidally dominated fringe and overwash island forests accreted through mineral sediment inputs bound in place by plant roots. Filamentous turf algae played an important role in stabilizing loose muds in the fringe forest where erosion was prevalent. Elevation in these high-energy environments was controlled not only by accretion but also by erosion and/or shallow subsidence. The rate of shallow subsidence was consistently 3-4 mm y-1 in the fringe and overwash island forests but was negligible in the basin forest. Hence, the vertical development of mangrove soils was influenced by both surface and subsurface processes and the procces controlling soil elevation differed among forest types. The mangrove ecosystem at Rookery Bay has remained stable as sea level has risen during the past 70 years. Yet, lead-210 accretion data suggest a substantial accretion deficit has occurred in the past century (accretion was 10-20 cm < sea-level rise from 1930 to 1990) in the fringe and island forests at Rookery Bay. In contrast, our measures of elevation change mostly equalled the estimates of sea-level rise and shallow subsidence. These data suggest that (1) vertical accretion in this system is driven by local sea-level rise and shallow subsidence, and (2) the mangrove forests are mostly keeping pace with sea-level rise. Thus, the vulnerability of this mangrove ecosystem to sea-level rise is best described in terms of an elevation deficit (elevation change minus sea-level rise) based on annual measures rather than an accretion deficit (accretion minus sea-level rise) based on decadal measures.

Coral ages and island subsidence, Hilo drill hole

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, J.G.; Ingram, B.L.; Ludwig, K. R.; Clague, D.A.

1996-01-01

A 25.8-m-thick sedimentary section containing coral fragments occurs directly below a surface lava flow (the ???1340 year old Panaewa lava flow) at the Hilo drill hole. Ten coral samples from this section dated by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon and five by thermal infrared multispectral scanner (TIMS) 230Th/U methods show good agreement. The calcareous unit is 9790 years old at the bottom and 1690 years old at the top and was deposited in a shallow lagoon behind an actively growing reef. This sedimentary unit is underlain by a 34-m-thick lava flow which in turn overlies a thin volcaniclastic silt with coral fragments that yield a single 14C date of 10,340 years. The age-depth relations of the dated samples can be compared with proposed eustatic sea level curves after allowance for island subsidence is taken. Island subsidence averages 2.2 mm/yr for the last 47 years based on measurements from a tide gage near the drill hole or 2.5-2.6 mm/yr for the last 500,000 years based on the ages and depths of a series of drowned coral reefs offshore from west Hawaii. The age-depth measurements of coral fragments are more consistent with eustatic sea levels as determined by coral dating at Barbados and Albrolhos Islands than those based on oxygen isotopic data from deep sea cores. The Panaewa lava flow entered a lagoon underlain by coral debris and covered the drill site with 30.9 m of lava of which 11 m was above sea level. This surface has now subsided to 4.2 m above sea level, but it demonstrates how a modern lava flow entering Hilo Bay would not only change the coastline but could extensively modify the offshore shelf.

Explicit Simulation of Networks of Outlet Glaciers to Constrain Greenland's Sea Level Contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ultee, E.; Bassis, J. N.

2017-12-01

Ice from the Greenland Ice Sheet drains to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers, many of which are too small to be accurately resolved in continental-scale ice sheet models. Moreover, despite the fact that dynamic changes in Greenland outlet glaciers are currently responsible for about half of the ice sheet's contribution to global sea level, all but the largest are often excluded from major sea level assessments. We have previously developed and validated a simple model that simulates advance and retreat of networks of marine-terminating glaciers based on the perfect plastic approximation. Here we apply this model to a selection of forcing scenarios, representing both climate persistence and extreme scenarios, to constrain changes in calving flux from the most significant Greenland outlet glaciers. Our model can be implemented in standalone mode or as the calving module in a more sophisticated large-scale model, providing constraints on Greenland's future contribution to global sea level rise under a range of scenarios.

Objective sea level pressure analysis for sparse data areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, L. M.

1972-01-01

A computer procedure was used to analyze the pressure distribution over the North Pacific Ocean for eleven synoptic times in February, 1967. Independent knowledge of the central pressures of lows is shown to reduce the analysis errors for very sparse data coverage. The application of planned remote sensing of sea-level wind speeds is shown to make a significant contribution to the quality of the analysis especially in the high gradient mid-latitudes and for sparse coverage of conventional observations (such as over Southern Hemisphere oceans). Uniform distribution of the available observations of sea-level pressure and wind velocity yields results far superior to those derived from a random distribution. A generalization of the results indicates that the average lower limit for analysis errors is between 2 and 2.5 mb based on the perfect specification of the magnitude of the sea-level pressure gradient from a known verification analysis. A less than perfect specification will derive from wind-pressure relationships applied to satellite observed wind speeds.

Forecasting Caspian Sea level changes using satellite altimetry data (June 1992-December 2013) based on evolutionary support vector regression algorithms and gene expression programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imani, Moslem; You, Rey-Jer; Kuo, Chung-Yen

2014-10-01

Sea level forecasting at various time intervals is of great importance in water supply management. Evolutionary artificial intelligence (AI) approaches have been accepted as an appropriate tool for modeling complex nonlinear phenomena in water bodies. In the study, we investigated the ability of two AI techniques: support vector machine (SVM), which is mathematically well-founded and provides new insights into function approximation, and gene expression programming (GEP), which is used to forecast Caspian Sea level anomalies using satellite altimetry observations from June 1992 to December 2013. SVM demonstrates the best performance in predicting Caspian Sea level anomalies, given the minimum root mean square error (RMSE = 0.035) and maximum coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.96) during the prediction periods. A comparison between the proposed AI approaches and the cascade correlation neural network (CCNN) model also shows the superiority of the GEP and SVM models over the CCNN.

Potentiometric surface map of the Magothy aquifer in southern Maryland, September, 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Wheeler, Judith C.

2005-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the Magothy aquifer in the Magothy Formation of Upper Cretaceous age in Southern Maryland during September 2002. The map is based on water-level measurements in 79 wells. The highest measured water level was 83 feet above sea level near the northern boundary and outcrop area of the aquifer in the north-central part of Anne Arundel County. The potentiometric surface declined towards the south and east. Local gradients were directed toward the centers of two cones of depression that developed in response to pumping. These cones of depression were centered around well fields in the Waldorf area and at the Chalk Point power plant. Measured ground-water levels were as low as 81 feet below sea level in the Waldorf area and 75 feet below sea level at Chalk Point.

Potentiometric Surface of the Magothy Aquifer in Southern Maryland, September 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Wheeler, Judith C.

2003-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the Magothy aquifer in the Magothy Formation of Upper Cretaceous age in Southern Maryland during September 2002. The map is based on water-level measurements in 79 wells. The highest measured water level was 83 feet above sea level near the northern boundary and outcrop area of the aquifer in the north-central part of Anne Arundel County. The potentiometric surface declined towards the south and east. Local gradients were directed toward the centers of two cones of depression that developed in response to pumping. These cones of depression were centered around well fields in the Waldorf area and at the Chalk Point power plant. Measured ground-water levels were as low as 81 feet below sea level in the Waldorf area and 75 feet below sea level at Chalk Point.

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level

PubMed Central

Strauss, Benjamin H.; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3–9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185–1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon. PMID:26460051

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level.

PubMed

Strauss, Benjamin H; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders

2015-11-03

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3-9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185-1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.

Assessing Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Surficial Aquifer in the Kennedy Space Center Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Warnock, A. M.; Hall, C. R.

2014-12-01

Global sea level rise in the past century due to climate change has been seen at an average rate of approximately 1.7-2.2 mm per year, with an increasing rate over the next century. The increasing SLR rate poses a severe threat to the low-lying land surface and the shallow groundwater system in the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, resulting in saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding. A three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport model is implemented to investigate and evaluate the extent of floods due to rising water table as well as saltwater intrusion. The SEAWAT model is chosen to solve the variable-density groundwater flow and salinity transport governing equations and simulate the regional-scale spatial and temporal evolution of groundwater level and chloride concentration. The horizontal resolution of the model is 50 m, and the vertical domain includes both the Surficial Aquifer and the Floridan Aquifer. The numerical model is calibrated based on the observed hydraulic head and chloride concentration. The potential impacts of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion and groundwater induced flooding are assessed under various sea level rise scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the potential landward movement of saltwater and freshwater fringe is projected. The existing water supply wells are examined overlaid with the projected salinity distribution map. The projected Surficial Aquifer water tables are overlaid with data of high resolution land surface elevation, land use and land cover, and infrastructure to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise. This study provides useful tools for decision making on ecosystem management, water supply planning, and facility management.

Formation and fate of sedimentary depocentres on Southeast Asia's Sunda Shelf over the past sea-level cycle and biogeographic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanebuth, Till J. J.; Voris, Harold K.; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Saito, Yoshiki; Okuno, Jun'ichi

2011-01-01

Sea-level variations are the major factor controlling sedimentation as well as the biogeographic patterns at continental margins over late Quaternary times. Fluctuations on millennial time-scales produce locally complex deposits in coasts and on shelves, associated with short-term influence on species development. This article reviews the sedimentary and biogeographic history of the tropical siliciclastic Sunda Shelf as an end-member of continental shelves regarding extreme width, an enormous sediment supply, and highest biodiversity in response to rapid sea-level fluctuations. We describe particular depositional segments as part of a genetic succession of zones from land to the deep sea based on literature data, field observations, and calculation of hydro-isostatic adjustment effects on changing relative sea level. These segments are characterized by individual sedimentary processes and deposits, and by a specific potential for material storage and re-mobilization. Long-term regressive intervals led to overall sigmoidal-promoting, extremely thick, and wide succeeding units. In contrast, rapid lateral shifts of defined depocentres over long distances took place in response to short-term sea level fluctuations. Fully isolated small-scale sediment bodies formed when sea level changed at exceptionally high rates. As a result of the high availability of organic-rich sediments, mangrove and freshwater peats formed frequently over late Quaternary times. The appearance of thick, massive and widespread peats is mainly linked to time intervals of a sea-level rise at slow rates, whilst organic matter appears much more dispersely in the sediments during episodes of rapidly changing sea level. The preservation potential of the regressive units is generally high due to highest initial sediment supply, stabilizing soil formation during exposure and rapid subsidence. Preservation of depositional elements from other periods is more exceptional and either restricted to local morphological depressions or to episodes of rapid sea level change. Besides complex channel incision, an overall lowering of the sediment surface related to erosion, as deep as 20 m or more, over wide areas took place mainly during sea level lowering. The final export of shelf material is documented by enormous mass-wasting packages on the associated continental slope. From a palaeogeographic perspective, the rapid formation or disappearance of special habitat zones, such as mangrove fringes and extended mud flats, led to species establishment or truncation in distribution. In addition, the opening or closure of ocean passages, as narrow bridges allowing limited species crossing or as fully colonized corridors, had severe impact on eco-fragmentation and the expansion or contraction of species. Independent of such particular conditions, sea-level changes have been too rapid over the past climatic cycle to allow full regeneration and mature development of coast-related ecosystems.

Holocene sea-level changes in the Falkland Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newton, Tom; Gehrels, Roland; Daley, Tim; Long, Antony; Bentley, Mike

2014-05-01

In many locations in the southern hemisphere, relative sea level (RSL) reached its maximum position during the middle Holocene. This highstand is used by models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to constrain the melt histories of the large ice sheets, particularly Antarctica. In this paper we present the first Holocene sea-level record from the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), an archipelago located on the Patagonian continental shelf about 500 km east of mainland South America at a latitude of ca. 52 degrees. Unlike coastal locations in southernmost South America, Holocene sea-level data from the Falklands are not influenced by tectonics, local ice loading effects and large tidal ranges such that GIA and ice-ocean mass flux are the dominant drivers of RSL change. Our study site is a salt marsh located in Swan Inlet in East Falkland, around 50 km southwest of Stanley. This is the largest and best developed salt marsh in the Falkland Islands. Cores were collected in 2005 and 2013. Lithostratigraphic analyses were complemented by analyses of foraminifera, testate amoebae and diatoms to infer palaeoenvironments. The bedrock, a Permian black shale, is overlain by grey-brown organic salt-marsh clay, up to 90 cm thick, which, in a landward direction, is replaced by freshwater organic sediments. Overlying these units are medium-coarse sands with occasional pebbles, up to 115 cm thick, containing tidal flat foraminifera. The sandy unit is erosively overlain by a grey-brown organic salt-marsh peat which extends up to the present surface. Further away from the sea this unit is predominantly of freshwater origin. Based on 13 radiocarbon dates we infer that prior to ~9.5 ka sea level was several metres below present. Under rising sea levels a salt marsh developed which was suddenly drowned around 8.4 ka, synchronous with a sea-level jump known from northern hemisphere locations. Following the drowning, RSL rose to its maximum position around 7 ka, less than 0.5 m above present sea level. RSL then fell slowly during the middle and late Holocene, eroding the elevated tidal flat deposits in places, and allowing development of thin salt marsh deposits and encroachment of freshwater marsh. Our new sea-level index points are roughly in agreement with GIA model predictions but place tight constraints on the timing of early Holocene RSL rise and the height and timing of the maximum Holocene RSL position.

Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.

PubMed

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

2014-06-01

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework†

PubMed Central

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

2014-01-01

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25505370

Investigation on the antidepressant effect of sea buckthorn seed oil through the GC-MS-based metabolomics approach coupled with multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Tian, Jun-sheng; Liu, Cai-chun; Xiang, Huan; Zheng, Xiao-fen; Peng, Guo-jiang; Zhang, Xiang; Du, Guan-hua; Qin, Xue-mei

2015-11-01

Depression is one of the prevalent and serious mental disorders and the number of depressed patients has been on the rise globally during the recent decades. Sea buckthorn seed oil from traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is edible and has been widely used for treatment of different diseases for a long time. However, there are few published reports on the antidepressant effect of sea buckthorn seed oil. With the objective of finding potential biomarkers of the therapeutic response of sea buckthorn seed oil in chronic unpredictable mild stress (CUMS) rats, urine metabolomics based on gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) coupled with multivariate analysis was applied. In this study, we discovered a higher level of pimelic acid as well as palmitic acid and a lower level of suberic acid, citrate, phthalic acid, cinnamic acid and Sumiki's acid in urine of rats exposed to CUMS procedures after sea buckthorn seed oil was administered. These changes of metabolites are involved in energy metabolism, fatty acid metabolism and other metabolic pathways as well as in the synthesis of neurotransmitters and it is helpful to facilitate the efficacy evaluation and mechanism elucidating the effect of sea buckthorn seed oil for depression management.

Future Wave Height Situation estimated by the Latest Climate Scenario around Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, D.; Yokoki, H.; Kuwahara, Y.; Yamano, H.; Kayanne, H.; Okajima, H.; Kawamiya, M.

2012-12-01

Sea-level rise due to the global warming is significant phenomenon to coastal region in the world. Especially the atoll islands, which are low-lying and narrow, have high vulnerability against the sea-level rise. Recently the improved future climate projection (MIROC-ESM) was provided by JAMSTEC, which adopted the latest climate scenarios based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) of the green house gasses. Wave field simulation including the latest sea-level rise pathway by MIROC-ESM was conducted to understand the change of significant wave heights in Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, which was an important factor to manage the coast protection. MIROC-ESM provides monthly sea surface height in the fine gridded world (1.5 degree near the equator). Wave field simulation was conducted using the climate scenario of RCP45 in which the radioactive forcing of the end of 21st century was stabilized to 4.5 W/m2. Sea-level rise ratio of every 10 years was calculated based on the historical data set from 1850 to 2005 and the estimated data set from 2006 to 2100. In that case, the sea-level increases by 10cm after 100 years. In this study, the numerical simulation of wave field at the rate of sea-level rise was carried out using the SWAN model. The wave and wind conditions around Funafuti atoll is characterized by two seasons that are the trade (Apr. - Nov.) and non-trade (Jan. - Mar., Dec.) wind season. Then, we set up the two seasonal boundary conditions for one year's simulation, which were calculated from ECMWF reanalysis data. Simulated results of significant wave heights are analyzed by the increase rate (%) calculated from the base results (Average for 2000 - 2005) and the results of 2100. Calculated increase rate of the significant wave height for both seasons was extremely high on the reef-flat. Maximum increase rates of the trade and non-trade wind season were 1817% and 686%, respectively. The southern part of the atoll has high increasing rate through the two seasons. In the non-trade wind season, the northern tip and the southern part of the island were higher increase rate in the lagoon-side coasts, which was about 7%, and the average rate was 3.4%. On the other hand, the average rate in the trade wind season was 5.0%. Ocean side coast has high increase rate through the two seasons. Especially, the very large rate was calculated in the northern part of the Fongafale Island locally. The DEM data in the middle of Fongafale Island, which is most populated area in the island, showed that the northern oceanic coast has wide and high storm ridge and the increase rate was extremely large there. In such coasts, sea-level rise due to global warming has same effect as storm surge due to tropical cyclone in the point of increasing the sea-level, although the time scale of them is not same. Thus we can consider that the calculated area with large increase rate has already experienced the high wave due to tropical cyclone, which was enabled to construct the wide and high storm ridge. This result indicated that the effective coastal management under the sea-level rise needs to understand not only the quantitative estimation of the future situation but also the protect potential constructed by the present wave and wind condition.

Estimating amplitudes of fifth-order sea level fluctuations from peritidal through basinal carbonate deposits, Lower Mississippian, Wyoming-Montana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elrick, M.; Read, J.F.

1990-05-01

Three types of 1-10-m upward-shallowing cycles are observed in the Lower Mississippian Lodgepole and lower Madison formations of Wyoming and Montana. Typical peritidal cycles have pellet grainstone bases overlain by algal laminites, which are rarely capped by paleosol/regolith horizons. Shallow ramp cycles have burrowed pellet-skeletal wackestone bases overlain by cross-bedded ooid/crinoid grainstone caps. Deep ramp cycles are characterized by sub-wave base limestone/argillite, storm-deposited limestone, overlain by hummocky stratified grainstone caps. Average cycle periods range from 17-155 k.y. This, rhythmically bedded limestone/argillite deposits of basinal facies do not contain shallowing-upward cycles, but do contain 2-4 k.y. limestone/argillite rhythms. These sub-wave basemore » deposit are associated with Waulsortian-type mud mounds which have >50 m synoptic relief. This relief provides minimum water depth estimates for the deposits, and implies storm-wave base was less than 50 m. Two-dimensional computer modeling of cyclic platform through noncyclic basinal deposits allows for bracketing of fifth-order sea level fluctuation amplitudes, thought responsible for cycle formation. Computer models using fifth-order amplitudes less than 20 m do not produce cycles on the deep ramp (assuming a 25-30 m storm-wave base). Amplitudes >30 m produce water depths on the inner ramp that are too deep, and disconformities extend too far into the basin. The absence of meter-scale cycles in the basin suggests water depths were too great to record the effects of sea level oscillations occurring on the platform, or climatic fluctuation, associated with glacio-eustatic sea level oscillations, were not sufficient to affect hemipelagic depositional patterns in the tropical basin environment.« less

Gradual demise of a thin southern Laurentide ice sheet recorded by Mississippi drainage.

PubMed

Wickert, Andrew D; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Williams, Carlie; Anderson, Robert S

2013-10-31

At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), about 21,000 years before present, land-based ice sheets held enough water to reduce global mean sea level by 130 metres. Yet after decades of study, major uncertainties remain as to the distribution of that ice. Here we test four reconstructions of North American deglacial ice-sheet history by quantitatively connecting them to high-resolution oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) records from the Gulf of Mexico using a water mixing model. For each reconstruction, we route meltwater and seasonal runoff through the time-evolving Mississippi drainage basin, which co-evolves with ice geometry and changing topography as ice loads deform the solid Earth and produce spatially variable sea level in a process known as glacial isostatic adjustment. The δ(18)O records show that the Mississippi-drained southern Laurentide ice sheet contributed only 5.4 ± 2.1 metres to global sea level rise, of which 0.66 ± 0.07 metres were released during the meltwater pulse 1A event 14,650-14,310 years before present, far less water than previously thought. In contrast, the three reconstructions based on glacial isostatic adjustment overpredict the δ(18)O-based post-LGM meltwater volume by a factor of 1.6 to 3.6. The fourth reconstruction, which is based on ice physics, has a low enough Mississippi-routed meltwater discharge to be consistent with δ(18)O constraints, but also contains the largest LGM North American ice volume. This suggests that modelling based on ice physics may be the best way of matching isotopic records while also sequestering enough water in the North American ice sheets to match the observed LGM sea level fall.

Mean Tide Level Data in the PSMSL Mean Sea Level Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, Andrew; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Gordon, Kathy; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rickards, Lesley; Tamisiea, Mark; Williams, Simon; Woodworth, Philip

2016-04-01

The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is the internationally recognised global sea level data bank for long term sea level change information from tide gauges. Established in 1933, the PSMSL continues to be responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data. The PSMSL operates under the auspices of the International Council for Science (ICSU), is a regular member of the ICSU World Data System and is associated with the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO) and the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). The PSMSL continues to work closely with other members of the sea level community through the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). Currently, the PSMSL data bank holds over 67,000 station-years of monthly and annual mean sea level data from over 2250 tide gauge stations. Data from each site are quality controlled and, wherever possible, reduced to a common datum, whose stability is monitored through a network of geodetic benchmarks. PSMSL also distributes a data bank of measurements taken from in-situ ocean bottom pressure recorders. Most of the records in the main PSMSL dataset indicate mean sea level (MSL), derived from high-frequency tide gauge data, with sampling typically once per hour or higher. However, some of the older data is based on mean tide level (MTL), which is obtained from measurements taken at high and low tide only. While usually very close, MSL and MTL can occasionally differ by many centimetres, particularly in shallow water locations. As a result, care must be taken when using long sea level records that contain periods of MTL data. Previously, periods during which the values indicated MTL rather than MSL were noted in the documentation, and sometimes suggested corrections were supplied. However, these comments were easy to miss, particularly in large scale studies that used multiple stations from across a wide area. Therefore, the PSMSL have decided to begin applying a correction to all mixed MTL/MSL records in its datum-controlled RLR dataset, where a suitable correction is available. These corrections will be clearly flagged, allowing users of PSMSL data to quickly identify these values and ignore these data, or apply a different correction. Here we describe the corrections applied to the PSMSL dataset, how users can find MTL data and the corrections made, and some caveats and warnings that need to be considered.

Influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the evolution of central California's shoreline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Griggs, Gary B.

2000-01-01

Significant sea-cliff erosion and storm damage occurred along the central coast of California during the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño winters. This generated interest among scientists and land-use planners in how historic El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters have affected the coastal climate of central California. A relative ENSO intensity index based on oceanographic and meteorologic data defines the timing and magnitude of ENSO events over the past century. The index suggests that five higher intensity (relative values 4–6) and 17 lower intensity (relative values 1–3) ENSO events took place between 1910 and 1995. The ENSO intensity index correlates with fluctuations in the time series of cyclone activity, precipitation, detrended sea level, wave height, sea-surface temperature, and sea-level barometric pressure. Wave height, sea level, and precipitation, which are the primary external forcing parameters in sea-cliff erosion, increase nonlinearly with increasing relative ENSO event intensity. The number of storms that caused coastal erosion or storm damage and the historic occurrence of large-scale sea-cliff erosion along the central coast also increase nonlinearly with increasing relative event intensity. These correlations and the frequency distribution of relative ENSO event intensities indicate that moderate- to high-intensity ENSO events cause the most sea-cliff erosion and shoreline recession over the course of a century.

An Experimental Real-Time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System for Intra America Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, D. S.; Preller, R. H.; Martin, P. J.

2003-04-01

An experimental real-time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System has been developed for the Intra America Seas (IASNFS). The area of coverage includes the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. The system produces nowcast and up to 72 hours forecast the sea level variation, 3D ocean current, temperature and salinity fields. IASNFS consists an 1/24 degree (~5 km), 41-level sigma-z data-assimilating ocean model based on NCOM. For daily nowcast/forecast the model is restarted from previous nowcast. Once model is restarted it continuously assimilates the synthetic temperature/salinity profiles generated by a data analysis model called MODAS to produce nowcast. Real-time data come from satellite altimeter (GFO, TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2) sea surface height anomaly and AVHRR sea surface temperature. Three hourly surface heat fluxes, including solar radiation, wind stresses and sea level air pressure from NOGAPS/FNMOC are applied for surface forcing. Forecasts are produced with available NOGAPS forecasts. Once the nowcast/forecast are produced they are distributed through the Internet via the updated web pages. The open boundary conditions including sea surface elevation, transport, temperature, salinity and currents are provided by the NRL 1/8 degree Global NCOM which is operated daily. An one way coupling scheme is used to ingest those boundary conditions into the IAS model. There are 41 rivers with monthly discharges included in the IASNFS.

Quaternary Sea-ice history in the Arctic Ocean based on a new Ostracode sea-ice proxy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Gemery, L.; Briggs, W.M.; Jakobsson, M.; Polyak, L.; Brouwers, E.M.

2010-01-01

Paleo-sea-ice history in the Arctic Ocean was reconstructed using the sea-ice dwelling ostracode Acetabulastoma arcticum from late Quaternary sediments from the Mendeleyev, Lomonosov, and Gakkel Ridges, the Morris Jesup Rise and the Yermak Plateau. Results suggest intermittently high levels of perennial sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (25-45 ka), minimal sea ice during the last deglacial (16-11 ka) and early Holocene thermal maximum (11-5 ka) and increasing sea ice during the mid-to-late Holocene (5-0 ka). Sediment core records from the Iceland and Rockall Plateaus show that perennial sea ice existed in these regions only during glacial intervals MIS 2, 4, and 6. These results show that sea ice exhibits complex temporal and spatial variability during different climatic regimes and that the development of modern perennial sea ice may be a relatively recent phenomenon. ?? 2010.

Investigation Hydrometeorological Regime of the White Sea Based on Satellite Altimetry Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebedev, Sergey A.

2016-08-01

The White Sea are the seas of the Arctic Ocean. Today complicated hydrodynamic, tidal, ice, and meteorological regimes of these seas may be investigated on the basis of remote sensing data, specifically of satellite altimetry data. Results of calibration and validation of satellite altimetry measurements (sea surface height and sea surface wind speed) and comparison with regional tidal model show that this type of data may be successfully used in scientific research and in monitoring of the environment. Complex analysis of the tidal regime of the White Sea and comparison between global and regional tidal models show advantages of regional tidal model for use in tidal correction of satellite altimetry data. Examples of using the sea level data in studying long-term variability of the Barents and White Seas are presented. Interannual variability of sea ice edge position is estimated on the basis of altimetry data.

Evidence of a Weakening Gulf Stream from In-situ Expendable Bathythermograph Data, 1996-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roupe, L.; Baringer, M. O.

2014-12-01

A weakening of the Gulf Stream, the upper branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation system, has been hypothesized to accelerate sea level rise on the east coast of the United States, caused by changes in the Gulf Stream strength and, hence, sea level difference across the current. It still remains unclear if the Gulf Stream has in fact weakened or remains stable, along with the potential role of natural long-term variability. Tide gauges along the east coast show an accelerated sea level rise from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod that is 3-4 times higher than global sea level rise. Satellite altimetry shows a weakening gradient in Gulf Stream sea surface height that is highly correlated (r=-0.85) with east coast sea level rise, however, direct velocity measurements showed no significant decrease in Gulf Stream strength over a similar time period. We introduce another in-situ dataset to examine the issues between these conflicting results. Expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) measure temperature at depth directly, and then depth and salinity can be inferred, along with geostrophic velocity and transport. XBT data has been used to measure transport in various current systems, however, the Gulf Stream transport has not been analyzed using the newest high-density XBT data made available since 1996. The trend in sea level difference is determined to be 3.3 +/- 3.2 mm/yr, resulting in an overall decrease of 5.2 cm in sea level from 1996-2013. This result agrees with satellite altimetry results that show a significant decrease in recent years. This data also shows a changing Gulf Stream core position, based on the 15°C isotherm at 200 m, of 0.03°N/yr that is negatively correlated with surface transport (r=-0.25). Issues remain in defining the core and width of the Gulf Stream and with eliminating the possibility of natural variability in the current system.

Multiproxy assessment of Holocene relative sea-level changes in the western Mediterranean: sea-level variability and improvements in the definition of the isostatic signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacchi, Matteo; Rovere, Alessio; Marriner, Nick; Morhange, Christophe; Spada, Giorgio; Fontana, Alessandro

2016-04-01

After the review of 918 radiocarbon dated Relative Sea-Level (RSL) data-points we present here the first quality-controlled database constraining the Holocene sea-level histories of the western Mediterranean Sea (Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta and Tunisia). We reviewed and standardized the geological RSL data-points using a new multi-proxy methodology based on: (1) modern taxa assemblages in Mediterranean lagoons and marshes; (2) beachrock characteristics (cement fabric and chemistry, sedimentary structures); and (3) the modern distribution of Mediterranean fixed biological indicators. These RSL data-points were coupled with the large number of archaeological RSL indicators available for the western Mediterranean. We assessed the spatial variability of RSL histories for 22 regions and compared these with the ICE-5G VM2 GIA model. In the western Mediterranean, RSL rose continuously for the whole Holocene with a sudden slowdown at ~7.5 ka BP and a further deceleration during the last ~4.0 ka BP, after which time observed RSL changes are mainly related to variability in isostatic adjustment. The sole exception is southern Tunisia, where data show evidence of a mid-Holocene high-stand compatible with the isostatic impacts of the melting history of the remote Antarctic ice sheet. Our results indicate that late-Holocene sea-level rise was significantly slower than the current one. First estimates of GIA contribution indicate that, at least in the northwestern sector, it accounts at least for the 25-30% of the ongoing sea-level rise recorded by Mediterranean tidal gauges. Such contribution is less constrained at lower latitudes due to the lower quality of the late Holocene index points. Future applications of spatio-temporal statistical techniques are required to better quantify the gradient of the isostatic contribution and to provide improved context for the assessment of 20th century acceleration of Mediterranean sea-level rise.

Sea-level Fingerprinting, Vertical Crustal Motion from GIA, and Projections of Relative Sea-level Change in the Canadian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Thomas; Simon, Karen; Forbes, Donald; Dyke, Arthur; Mazzotti, Stephane

2010-05-01

We present projections of relative sea-level rise in the 21st century for communities in the Canadian Arctic. First, for selected communities, we determine the sea-level fingerprinting response from Antarctica, Greenland, and mountain glaciers and ice caps. Then, for various published projections of global sea-level change in the 21st century, we determine the local amount of "absolute" sea-level change. We next determine the vertical land motion arising from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and incorporate this into the estimates of absolute sea-level change to obtain projections of relative sea-level change. The sea-level fingerprinting effect is especially important in the Canadian Arctic owing to proximity to Arctic ice caps and especially to the Greenland ice sheet. Its effect is to reduce the range of projected relative sea-level change compared to the range of global sea-level projections. Vertical crustal motion is assessed through empirically derived regional isobases, the Earth's predicted response to ice-sheet loading and unloading by the ICE-5G ice sheet reconstruction, and Global Positioning System vertical velocities. Owing to the large rates of crustal uplift from glacial isostatic adjustment across a large region of central Arctic Canada, many communities are projected to experience relative sea-level fall despite projections of global sea-level rise. Where uplift rates are smaller, such as eastern Baffin Island and the western Canadian Arctic, sea-level is projected to rise.

Improving the Predictability of Severe Water Levels along the Coasts of Marginal Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridder, N. N.; de Vries, H.; van den Brink, H.; De Vries, H.

2016-12-01

Extreme water levels can lead to catastrophic consequences with severe societal and economic repercussions. Particularly vulnerable are countries that are largely situated below sea level. To support and optimize forecast models, as well as future adaptation efforts, this study assesses the modeled contribution of storm surges and astronomical tides to total water levels under different air-sea momentum transfer parameterizations in a numerical surge model (WAQUA/DCSMv5) of the North Sea. It particularly focuses on the implications for the representation of extreme and rapidly recurring severe water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5, which is currently used to forecast coastal water levels in the Netherlands, is forced with ERA Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from two different methodologies to parameterize air-sea momentum transfer. The first calculates the governing wind stress forcing using a drag coefficient derived from the conventional approach of wind speed dependent Charnock constants. The other uses instantaneous wind stress from the parameterization of the quasi-linear theory applied within the ECMWF wave model which is expected to deliver a more realistic forcing. The performance of both methods is tested by validating the model output with observations, paying particular attention to their ability to reproduce rapidly succeeding high water levels and extreme events. In a second step, the common features of and connections between these events are analyzed. The results of this study will allow recommendations for the improvement of water level forecasts within marginal seas and support decisions by policy makers. Furthermore, they will strengthen the general understanding of severe and extreme water levels as a whole and help to extend the currently limited knowledge about clustering events.

Map showing the potentiometric surface of the Magothy Aquifer in southern Maryland, September 1982

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Frederick K.; Wheeler, Judith C.; Curtin, Stephen E.

1982-01-01

A map was prepared that shows the potentiometric surface of the Magothy aquifer in southern Maryland in September 1982. The map is based on measurements from a network of 83 observation wells. The highest levels of the potentiometric surface, 57 and 58 feet above sea level, were measured near the outcrop-subcrop of the aquifer in topographically high areas of Anne Arundel and Prince Georges Counties. The potentiometric surface slopes to the southeast to about sea level along much of the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Three distinct and extensive cones of depression have developed in the potentiometric surface around the well fields of the Annapolis area, Waldorf area, and Chalk Point. Several square miles of each cone are below sea level, and in some areas at Chalk Point and Waldorf, the cone is more than 50 feet below sea level. The network of wells was developed as part of the cooperative program between the U.S. Geological Survey, the Maryland Geological Survey, and the Maryland Energy Administration. (USGS)

Holocene sea-level change and Antarctic melting history derived from geological observations and geophysical modeling along the Shimokita Peninsula, northern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokoyama, Y.; Okuno, J.; Miyairi, Y.; Obrochta, S.; Demboya, N.; Makino, Y.; Kawahata, H.

2012-12-01

A Mid to Late Holocene sea-level record based on combined geomorphological, geological and micropaleontological observations was obtained from well-developed wave cut benches subaerially exposed along the Shimokita Peninsula, northern Japan. Results indicate that the benches were formed during mid to late Holocene sea-level transgressions, reaching a maximum highstand level of 2 m above present at about 3,000 to 4,000 years ago. This timing corresponds to an abrupt, order of magnitude decrease in sedimentation rate as recorded in a core recovered from proximal Mutsu Bay. In addition, glacio-hydro-isostatic adjustment due to crustal deformation in response to postglacial sea-level rise was modeled, and results are consistent with the reconstructed local 2 m highstand. Given that meltwater contributions from the major North American and European ice sheets had largely ceased by 7,000 years ago, these independent lines of evidence, taken together, indicate that melting of the Antarctic ice sheet ended by late Holocene, around 3,000-4,000 years ago.

Observations and estimates of wave-driven water level extremes at the Marshall Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y.

2014-10-01

Wave-driven extreme water levels are examined for coastlines protected by fringing reefs using field observations obtained in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The 2% exceedence water level near the shoreline due to waves is estimated empirically for the study sites from breaking wave height at the outer reef and by combining separate contributions from setup, sea and swell, and infragravity waves, which are estimated based on breaking wave height and water level over the reef flat. Although each component exhibits a tidal dependence, they sum to yield a 2% exceedence level that does not. A hindcast based on the breaking wave height parameterization is used to assess factors leading to flooding at Roi-Namur caused by an energetic swell event during December 2008. Extreme water levels similar to December 2008 are projected to increase significantly with rising sea level as more wave and tide events combine to exceed inundation threshold levels.

(abstract) Using TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Level Observations to Test the Sensitivity of an Ocean Model to Wind Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Chao, Yi

1996-01-01

It has been demonstrated that current-generation global ocean general circulation models (OGCM) are able to simulate large-scale sea level variations fairly well. In this study, a GFDL/MOM-based OGCM was used to investigate its sensitivity to different wind forcing. Simulations of global sea level using wind forcing from the ERS-1 Scatterometer and the NMC operational analysis were compared to the observations made by the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) radar altimeter for a two-year period. The result of the study has demonstrated the sensitivity of the OGCM to the quality of wind forcing, as well as the synergistic use of two spaceborne sensors in advancing the study of wind-driven ocean dynamics.

Contemporary Arctic Sea Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazenave, A. A.

2017-12-01

During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic indicates a dominant mass contribution, especially in the Greenland, Norwegian, and Barents Seas sector.

The sea-level highstand correlated to marine isotope stage (MIS) 7 in the coastal plain of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

PubMed

Lopes, Renato P; Dillenburg, Sergio R; Schultz, Cesar L; Ferigolo, Jorge; Ribeiro, Ana Maria; Pereira, Jamil C; Holanda, Elizete C; Pitana, Vanessa G; Kerber, Leonardo

2014-12-01

The coastal plain of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, in southern Brazil, includes four barrier-lagoon depositional systems formed by successive Quaternary sea-level highstands that were correlated to marine isotope stages (MIS) 11, 9, 5 and 1, despite the scarcity of absolute ages. This study describes a sea-level highstand older than MIS 5, based on the stratigraphy, ages and fossils of the shallow marine facies found in coastal barrier (Barrier II). This facies outcrops along the banks of Chuí Creek, it is composed of fine, well-sorted quartz sand and contains ichnofossils Ophiomorpha nodosa and Rosselia sp., and molluscan shells. The sedimentary record indicates coastal aggradation followed by sea-level fall and progradation of the coastline. Thermoluminescence (TL) and electron spin resonance (ESR) ages from sediments and fossil shells point to an age of ∼220 ka for the end of this marine transgression, thus correlating it to MIS 7 (substage 7e). Altimetric data point to a maximum amplitude of about 10 meters above present-day mean sea-level, but tectonic processes may be involved. Paleoceanographic conditions at the time of the highstand and correlations with other deposits in the Brazilian coasts are also discussed.

The sea-level highstand correlated to marine isotope stage (MIS) 7 in the coastal plain of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

PubMed

Lopes, Renato P; Dillenburg, Sergio R; Schultz, Cesar L; Ferigolo, Jorge; Ribeiro, Ana Maria; Pereira, Jamil C; Holanda, Elizete C; Pitana, Vanessa G; Kerber, Leonardo

2014-12-09

The coastal plain of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, in southern Brazil, includes four barrier-lagoon depositional systems formed by successive Quaternary sea-level highstands that were correlated to marine isotope stages (MIS) 11, 9, 5 and 1, despite the scarcity of absolute ages. This study describes a sea-level highstand older than MIS 5, based on the stratigraphy, ages and fossils of the shallow marine facies found in coastal barrier (Barrier II). This facies outcrops along the banks of Chuí Creek, it is composed of fine, well-sorted quartz sand and contains ichnofossils Ophiomorpha nodosa and Rosselia sp., and molluscan shells. The sedimentary record indicates coastal aggradation followed by sea-level fall and progradation of the coastline. Thermoluminescence (TL) and electron spin resonance (ESR) ages from sediments and fossil shells point to an age of ∼220 ka for the end of this marine transgression, thus correlating it to MIS 7 (substage 7e). Altimetric data point to a maximum amplitude of about 10 meters above present-day mean sea-level, but tectonic processes may be involved. Paleoceanographic conditions at the time of the highstand and correlations with other deposits in the Brazilian coasts are also discussed.

The impact of sea-level rise on organic matter decay rates in Chesapeake Bay brackish tidal marshes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwanm, M.L.; Langley, J.A.; Guntenspergen, Gleen R.; Megonigal, J.P.

2013-01-01

The balance between organic matter production and decay determines how fast coastal wetlands accumulate soil organic matter. Despite the importance of soil organic matter accumulation rates in influencing marsh elevation and resistance to sea-level rise, relatively little is known about how decomposition rates will respond to sea-level rise. Here, we estimate the sensitivity of decomposition to flooding by measuring rates of decay in 87 bags filled with milled sedge peat, including soil organic matter, roots and rhizomes. Experiments were located in field-based mesocosms along 3 mesohaline tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay. Mesocosm elevations were manipulated to influence the duration of tidal inundation. Although we found no significant influence of inundation on decay rate when bags from all study sites were analyzed together, decay rates at two of the sites increased with greater flooding. These findings suggest that flooding may enhance organic matter decay rates even in water-logged soils, but that the overall influence of flooding is minor. Our experiments suggest that sea-level rise will not accelerate rates of peat accumulation by slowing the rate of soil organic matter decay. Consequently, marshes will require enhanced organic matter productivity or mineral sediment deposition to survive accelerating sea-level rise.

The impact of sea-level rise on organic matter decay rates in Chesapeake Bay brackish tidal marshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirwan, M. L.; Langley, J. A.; Guntenspergen, G. R.; Megonigal, J. P.

2013-03-01

The balance between organic matter production and decay determines how fast coastal wetlands accumulate soil organic matter. Despite the importance of soil organic matter accumulation rates in influencing marsh elevation and resistance to sea-level rise, relatively little is known about how decomposition rates will respond to sea-level rise. Here, we estimate the sensitivity of decomposition to flooding by measuring rates of decay in 87 bags filled with milled sedge peat, including soil organic matter, roots and rhizomes. Experiments were located in field-based mesocosms along 3 mesohaline tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay. Mesocosm elevations were manipulated to influence the duration of tidal inundation. Although we found no significant influence of inundation on decay rate when bags from all study sites were analyzed together, decay rates at two of the sites increased with greater flooding. These findings suggest that flooding may enhance organic matter decay rates even in water-logged soils, but that the overall influence of flooding is minor. Our experiments suggest that sea-level rise will not accelerate rates of peat accumulation by slowing the rate of soil organic matter decay. Consequently, marshes will require enhanced organic matter productivity or mineral sediment deposition to survive accelerating sea-level rise.

The impact of sea-level rise on organic matter decay rates in Chesapeake Bay brackish tidal marshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirwan, M. L.; Langley, J. A.; Guntenspergen, G. R.; Megonigal, J. P.

2012-10-01

The balance between organic matter production and decay determines how fast coastal wetlands accumulate soil organic matter. Despite the importance of soil organic matter accumulation rates in influencing marsh elevation and resistance to sea-level rise, relatively little is known about how decomposition rates will respond to sea-level rise. Here, we estimate the sensitivity of decomposition to flooding by measuring rates of decay in 87 bags filled with milled sedge peat, including soil organic matter, roots and rhizomes. Experiments were located in field-based mesocosms along 3 mesohaline tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay. Mesocosm elevations were manipulated to influence the duration of tidal inundation. Although we found no significant influence of inundation on decay rate when bags from all study sites were analyzed together, decay rates at two of the sites increased with greater flooding. These findings suggest that flooding may enhance organic matter decay rates even in water-logged soils, but that the overall influence of flooding is minor. Our experiments suggest that sea-level rise will not accelerate rates of peat accumulation by slowing the rate of soil organic matter decay. Consequently, marshes will require enhanced organic matter productivity or mineral sediment deposition to survive accelerating sea-level rise.

The Potential Effect of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Property Values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, J.

2015-12-01

It is well established that one consequence of increasing global sea level is that the frequency of flooding at low-lying coastal sites will increase. We review recent evidence that the effects coastal geometry will create substantial spatial variations in the changes in flooding frequency with scales of order 100km. Using a simple model of the evolution of coastal property values we demonstrate that a consequence of sea level rise is that the appreciation of coastal properties will peak, and then decline relative to higher properties. The time when the value reach a maximum is shown to depend upon the demand for the coastal property, and the local rate of change of flooding frequency due to sea level rise. The simple model is then extended to include, in an elementary manner, the effects on the value of adjacent but higher properties. We show that the effect of increased flooding frequency of the lower properties leads to an accelerated appreciation of the value of upland properties and an accelerated decline in the value of the coastal properties. We then provide some example calculations for selected sites. We conclude with a discussion of comparisons of the prediction of the analyses to recent data, and then comments on the impact of sea level rise on tax base of coastal communities.

Modeling Holocene Barrier Island Morphodynamics and Potential Future Response to Sea- Level Rise, Outer Banks, North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, L. J.; List, J. H.; Williams, S. J.; Stolper, D.

2006-12-01

A morphological-behavior model, GEOMBEST, which simulates the evolution of coastal morphology and stratigraphy resulting from changes in sea level and sediment supply provides insight into how barriers evolve over time scales ranging from decades to millenia. The model is based upon behavior rules originating from "Bruun rule" concepts, with additional parameters to allow simulation of more complex real-world scenarios. Morphological evolution in the model is driven by disequilibrium between the shoreface and a user-specified theoretical equilibrium profile that maintains its vertical position relative to sea level. As sea level continues rising to an estimated 48 cm above current MSL by AD 2100 (IPCC 2001) and hurricanes of potentially greater intensity impact the coast, barrier islands will respond either by transgressing across underlying strata or by disintegrating and ultimately submerging. Recent studies suggest that some barriers along the U.S. East Coast will break up and become submerged within decades. Other studies show that barriers in Louisiana have already submerged while others are in the process of narrowing in place and submerging. Several factors determine barrier island response to sea-level rise. These include initial topography and morphology of the barrier, underlying geologic framework, availability and supply of sediment, rate of sea-level rise, frequency and intensity of coastal storms, and anthropogenic modifications to the coast. Sensitivity analyses conducted in GEOMBEST suggest that of these factors, barrier-island response is most sensitive to the rate of sea-level rise. The Holocene evolution of the Outer Banks and potential future responses to sea-level rise are explored for a 25-km stretch of coast between Rodanthe and Cape Hatteras, NC using GEOMBEST. An 8500-year hindcast simulation for the study area reproduces closely the morphology and stratigraphy of the modern barrier with approximately 5 x 109 m3 excavated from the Pleistocene substrate, liberating a volume of material sufficient to construct Diamond Shoals. This hindcast simulation serves as the basis for forward simulations of potential future barrier island evolution. A series of model runs based on the low- (0.09 m), mid- (0.48 m) and upper- (0.88 m) range of IPCC (2001) estimates for sea-level rise by the year 2100, suggest the barrier would migrate at rates of approximately 2, 6 and 10 m/yr, respectively. The latter two results would represent an increase over modern long-term erosion rates in the study area, which serve as a proxy for migration rates. Model simulations of barrier response to 4 and 6 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100 (Overpeck et al., 2006), result in model-generated migration rates of 43 and 68 m/yr, respectively. These rates far exceed the highest average long-term barrier island erosion rates observed today along the Louisiana Coast where the Chandeleur Islands disintegrated in response to Hurricane Katrina. If observations in Louisiana can be applied to barrier islands in North Carolina, then we can expect the Outer Banks to become vulnerable to disintegration when migration rates reach approximately 15-20 m/yr. The five forward simulations for the study area suggest rates in this range may be achieved in the Outer Banks if sea-level rise by AD 2100 exceeds IPCC (2001) estimates.

Quantitative controls on location and architecture of carbonate depositional sequences: Upper miocene, cabo de gata region, SE Spain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franseen, E.K.; Goldstein, R.H.; Farr, M.R.

1997-01-01

Sequence stratigraphy, pinning-point relative sea-level curves, and magnetostratigraphy provide the quantitative data necessary to understand how rates of sea-level change and different substrate paleoslopes are dominant controls on accumulation rate, carbonate depositional sequence location, and internal architecture. Five third-order (1-10 my) and fourth-order (0.1-1.0 my) upper Miocene carbonate depositional sequences (DS1A, DS1B, DS2, DS3, TCC) formed with superimposed higher-frequency sea-level cycles in an archipelago setting in SE Spain. Overall, our study indicates when areas of high substrate slope (> 15??) are in shallow water, independent of climate, the location and internal architecture of carbonate deposits are not directly linked to sea-level position but, instead, are controlled by location of gently sloping substrates and processes of bypass. In contrast, if carbonate sediments are generated where substrates of low slope ( 15.6 cm/ky to ??? 2 cm/ky and overall relative sea level rose at rates of 17-21.4 cm/ky. Higher frequency sea-level rates were about 111 to more than 260 cm/ky, producing onlapping, fining- (deepening-) upward cycles. Decreasing accumulation rates resulted from decreasing surface area for shallow-water sediment production, drowning of shallow-water substrates, and complex sediment dispersal related to the archipelago setting. Typical systems tract and parasequence development should not be expected in "bypass ramp" settings; facies of onlapping strata do not track base level and are likely to be significantly different compared to onlapping strata associated with coastal onlap. Basal and upper DS2 reef megabreccias (indicating the transition from cool to warmer climatic conditions) were eroded from steep upslope positions and redeposited downslope onto areas of gentle substrate during rapid sea-level falls (> 22.7 cm/ky) of short duration. Such rapid sea-level falls and presence of steep slopes are not conducive to formation of forced regressive systems tracts composed of down-stepping reef clinoforms. The DS3 reefal platform formed where shallow water coincided with gently sloping substrates created by earlier deposition. Slow progradation (0.39-1.45 km/my) is best explained by the lack of an extensive bank top, progressively falling sea level, and low productivity resulting from siliciclastic debris and excess nutrients shed from nearby volcanic islands. Although DS3 strata were deposited during a third-order relative sea-level cycle, a typical transgressive systems tract is not recognizable, indicating that the initial relative rise in sea level was too rapid (??? 19 cm/ky). Downstepping reefs, forming a forced regressive systems tract, were deposited during the relative sea-level fall at the end of DS3, indicating that relatively slow rates of fall (10 cm/ky or less) over favorable paleoslope conditions are conducive to generation of forced regressive systems tracts consisting of downstepping reef clinoforms. The TCC sequence consists of four shallow-water sedimentary cycles that were deposited during a 400 ky to 100 ky time span. Such shallow-water cycles, typical of many platforms, form only where shallow water intersects gently sloping substrates. The relative thicknesses of cycles (< 2 m to 15 m thick), magnitudes of relative sea-level fluctuations associated with each cycle (25-30 m), high rates of relative sea-level fluctuations (minimum of 25-120 cm/ky), and the widespread distribution of similar TCC cycles in the Mediterranean and elsewhere are supportive of a glacio-eustatic

Quantitative controls on location and architecture of carbonate depositional sequences: upper miocene, cabo de gata region, se Spain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franseen, E.K.; Goldstein, R.H.; Farr, M.R.

1998-01-01

Sequence stratigraphy, pinning-point relative sea-level curves, and magnetostratigraphy provide the quantitative data necessary to understand how rates of sea-level change and different substrate paleoslopes are dominant controls on accumulation rate, carbonate depositional sequence location, and internal architecture. Five third-order (1-10 my) and fourth-order (0.1-1.0 my) upper Miocene carbonate depositional sequences (DS1A, DS1B, DS2, DS3, TCC) formed with superimposed higher-frequency sea-level cycles in an archipelago setting in SE Spain. Overall, our study indicates when areas of high substrate slope (> 15??) are in shallow water, independent of climate, the location and internal architecture of carbonate deposits are not directly linked to sea-level position but, instead, are controlled by location of gently sloping substrates and processes of bypass. In contrast, if carbonate sediments are generated where substrates of low slope ( 15.6 cm/ky to ??? 2 cm/ky and overall relative sea level rose at rates of 17-21.4 cm/ky. Higher frequency sea-level rates were about 111 to more than 260 cm/ky, producing onlapping, fining- (deepening-) upward cycles. Decreasing accumulation rates resulted from decreasing surface area for shallow-water sediment production, drowning of shallow-water substrates, and complex sediment dispersal related to the archipelago setting. Typical systems tract and parasequence development should not be expected in "bypass ramp" settings; facies of onlapping strata do not track base level and are likely to be significantly different compared to onlapping strata associated with coastal onlap. Basal and upper DS2 reef megabreccias (indicating the transition from cool to warmer climatic conditions) were eroded from steep upslope positions and redeposited downslope onto areas of gentle substrate during rapid sea-level falls (> 22.7 cm/ky) of short duration. Such rapid sea-level falls and presence of steep slopes are not conducive to formation of forced regressive systems tracts composed of downstepping reef clinoforms. The DS3 reefal platform formed where shallow water coincided with gently sloping substrates created by earlier deposition. Slow progradation (0.39-1.45 km/my) is best explained by the lack of an extensive bank top, progressively falling sea level, and low productivity resulting from siliciclastic debris and excess nutrients shed from nearby volcanic islands. Although DS3 strata were deposited during a third-order relative sea-level cycle, a typical transgresse??e systems tract is not recognizable, indicating that the initial relative rise in sea level was too rapid (??? 19 cm/ky). Downstepping reefs, forming a forced regressive systems tract, were deposited during the relative sea-level fall at the end of DS3, indicating that relatively slow rates of fall (10 cm/ky or less) over favorable paleoslope conditions are conducive to generation of forced regressive systems tracts consisting of downstepping reef clinoforms. The TCC sequence consists of four shallow -water sedimentary cycles that were deposited during a 400 ky to 100 ky time span. Such shallow-water cycles, typical of many platforms, form only where shallow water intersects gently sloping substrates. The relative thicknesses of cycles (< 2 m to 15 m thick), magnitudes of relative sea-level fluctuations associated with each cycle (25-30 m), high rates of relative sea-level fluctuations (minimum of 25-120 cm/ky), and the widespread distribution of similar TCC cycles in the Mediterranean and elsewhere are supportive of a glacio-eustati

Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage.

PubMed

Kopp, Robert E; Simons, Frederik J; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Maloof, Adam C; Oppenheimer, Michael

2009-12-17

With polar temperatures approximately 3-5 degrees C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (approximately 125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1-2 degrees C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (>or=-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr(-1) but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr(-1). Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.

Past and present Aral Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dukhovniy, Viktor; Stulina, Galina; Eshchanov, Odylbek

2013-04-01

The tragedy of disappearing of Aral Sea is well known to the World. Before and after collapse of Soviet Union, a huge quantity of scientific and popular editions described with grief the situation around the Aral Sea. After the NIS states became independent, World Bank, UNDP, UNEP in proper competition with each other had provided some assessment of the situation through presentation of some small and medium grants, but after 2000, the local population remained alone with own problems. Although on the eyes of the present generation a unique transformation of great water body into deserts took place, the global scientific community did not find forces and financing for real and detail investigation of the processes accompanying the Sea shrinking and land formation. We should acknowledge and give big respect to NATO, later to German Government that through GTZ (now GIZ) - German International Collaboration Agency - and GFZ (Potzdam) paid attention to this area of environment crisis and organized scientific and protective design in the so-called Priaralie - the territory around the drying Sea and delta of the two rivers - Amudarya and Syrdarya. Thank to this assistance, the local specialists in collaboration with limited a number of foreign scientists (N.Aladin, P.Zavialov, Joop de Schutter, Hans Wilps, Hedi Oberhansli) organized significant works for detail socioeconomic, ecological and hydrological assessment situation in Priaralie and on the Aral sea coast. On this base, Ministry of Agriculture and Water resources of Uzbekistan and State Committee of Water resources of Kazakhstan developed a plan of rehabilitation of Amudarya and Syrdarya deltas and started implementation of these projects. If Kazakh water authority moved ahead in wetland restoration faster, a forestation of delta and drying bed of Aral Sea got big success in Uzbek territory. 244 thousands hectares of saxsaul and tamarix were planted for protection of the Priaralie. By request of GTZ SIC, ICWC organized in 2005-2009 sixth expeditions for complex remote sensing and ground investigations Aral Sea former bottom that were complemented in 2010 -2011 by two expeditions with GFZ. As a result, the landscape, soils and environment mapping was done with determination of ecologically unstable zones and assessment total change of lands situation compared with the pre-independence time. Moreover - methodic of monitoring water, environment and hydro geological indicators on the all deltas area was elaborated, organized its testing and combined with remote sensing data on Amudarya delta for 2009-2012. It permits to SIC ICWC to organize systematic permanent (decadal) monitoring and recording of size, volume and level of water in Aral Sea. Since the beginning of regular observations over the Aral Sea level, 2 periods can be emphasized: 1. Conditionally natural period - 1911-1960 - characterized by a relatively stable hydrological regime, with fluctuations in the level around 53 m and the range of inter-annual fluctuations at no more than 1 m., when the sea received annually about a half of the run-off in the Syrdarya and Amudarya Rivers, i.e. 50-60 km3/yr. 2. Intensive anthropogenic impact period - since the 1960s, a vast extension of irrigable land was carried out in Central Asia that resulted in intensive diversion of river run-off. Since then, the sea level has been falling steadily, causing a dramatic reduction in the water surface area, a decrease in water volume and depths, great changes in shoreline configuration and an expansion of the desert areas adjacent to the Aral Sea. From 1960-1985, when the sea was an integral water body, slight lowering in the sea level took place until the 1970s, when the sea-level decreased with the mean level lowering 1 m. The desiccation process accelerated visibly from the mid 1970s. In 1975-1980, the level decreased by 0.65 m a year on average. Moreover, the level dropped greatly, when the run-off of the Amudarya did not reach the Aral Sea any more (1980-1990). Kokaral was the first of the large islands becoming a peninsula, separating the Small Aral Sea in the north-east by joining the shoreline in the west. By 1986, the peninsula practically detached the small Aral Sea from the large Aral Sea, leaving only a narrow flow passage in the east. Since that time, the hydrological regimes of the Small and Large Seas have become separated. The construction of Kokaral dam in Kazakhstan, 12 km long and 8 m high, then completely separated the small Aral Sea from the large Aral Sea and changed the hydrological regimes of the water bodies. Level of this part of Sea became from this moment permanently higher than in the large Aral Sea on 42 m a.s.l. The eastern part of the sea, where the bed is much shallower and the slope is gentler is more subjected to shrinking then the western part. 2005 year became threshold, from which Eastern Aral Sea began new story - deviation from almost empty water body to almost 4 meters depth. Present assessment of water balance of Aral Sea and delta at whole dependent from delivery water river and drainage flow through control section of Samanbay on the Amudarya and some cross sections on the enter main collectors to the delta boundary. These hydrological characteristics accepted on the base of information from BWO Amudarya and our monitoring of allocation of different waters on the delta. Water volume and water surface area of Eastern and Western Aral Sea bowls were definite on the result RS data from Landsat. Bathymetric curves gave ability to assess dynamic levels of Seas. After series of enough water years 2002 - 2005 with average water income to south Priaralie 12.5 km3 period of water scarce years lead to sharp decrease of surface water area of the Eastern bowl from 1010,5 th.ha on average on two time with failure of level from 31,1 m up to average 28,5 m. But phase of permanent reducing all indicators water body changed in 2008 on deviation in range from 26.3 m to 29.5 m. Some time sharp changes in the level of water in 2.0 m take place in time one year. These changes same as degree of deltas' watering depends fully from inflow water to boundary of deltas. At the same time, the Western bowl remained more or less stable and without direct flow of surface water supported own water stability based on balance between evaporation and precipitation plus presumably the inflow of deep ground water.

Water levels in major artesian aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain, 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eckel, J.A.; Walker, R.L.

1986-01-01

Water levels and changes in water levels in the major aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain are documented. Water levels in 1,071 wells were measured in 1983, and are compared with 827 water level measurements made in the same wells in 1978. Increased groundwater withdrawals from the major artesian aquifers that underlie the New Jersey Coastal Plain have caused large cones of depression in the artesian heads. These cones are delineated on detailed potentiometric surface maps based on water level data collected in the fall of 1983. Hydrographs from observation wells show trends of water levels for the 6-year period of 1978 through 1983. The Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system is divided into the lower, middle, and upper aquifers. The potentiometric surfaces in these aquifers form large cones of depression centered in the Camden and Middlesex-Monmouth County areas. Measured water levels declined as much as 23 ft in these areas for the period of study. The lowest levels are 96 ft below sea level in Camden County and 91 ft below sea level in the Middlesex-Monmouth County area. Deep cones of depression in coastal Monmouth and Ocean counties in both the Englishtown aquifer system and Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer are similar in location and shape. This is because of an effective hydraulic connection between these aquifers. Measured water levels declined as much as 29 ft in the Englishtown aquifer system and 21 ft in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer during the period of study. The lowest levels are 249 ft below sea level in the Englishtown aquifer system and 196 ft below sea level in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer. Water levels in the Piney Point aquifer are as low as 75 ft below sea level at Seaside Park, Ocean County and 35 ft below sea level in southern Cumberland County. Water levels in Cumberland County are affected by large withdrawals of groundwater in Kent County, Delaware. Water levels in the Atlantic City 800 ft sand of the Kirkwood Formation define an extensive elongated cone of depression. Water levels are as low as 76 ft below sea level near Margate and Ventnor, Atlantic County. Measured water levels declined as much as 9 ft in the coastal region between Cape May County and Ocean County for the period of study. (Author 's abstract)

What Causes the North Sea Level to Rise Faster over the Last Decade ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpytchev, Mikhail; Letetrel, Camille

2013-04-01

We combined tide gauge records (PSMSL) and satellite altimetry data (TOPEX/POSEIDON-JASON 1-2) to reconstruct the mean level of the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea Shelf (NS-NSS) over 1950-2012. The reconstructed NS-NSS mean sea level fluctuations reveal a pronounced interannual variability and a strong sea level acceleration since the mid-1990's. In order to understand the causes of this acceleration, the NS-NSS mean sea level was cross-correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. While the interannual variability of the mean sea level correlates well with the NAO/AO indices, the observed acceleration in the NS-NSS mean level is not linked linearly to the NAO/AO fluctuations. On the other hand, the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis of steric sea level variations in the eastern North Atlantic gives a dominant EOF pattern (55% of variance explained) that varies on a decadal scale very closely to the NS-NSS mean level flcutuations. Also, the amplification in the temporal amplitude of the dominant steric sea level EOF corresponds to the acceleration observed in the NS-NSS mean sea level signal. This suggests that decadal variations in the mean level of the North Sea - the Norwegian Sea Shelf reflect changes in the Subpolar Front currents (Rossby, 1996).

Modelling coastal processes and morphological changes of the UK east coast in support of coastal decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaorong; Leonardi, Nicoletta; Brown, Jennifer; Plater, Andy

2017-04-01

The coastline of Eastern England is home to about one quarter of the UK's coastal habitats, including intertidal salt marshes, tidal flats and sand dunes. These geomorphic features are of great importance to the local wildlife, global biodiversity, marine environment and human society and economy. Due to sea-level rise and the occurrence of extreme weather conditions, the coastline of Eastern England is under high risk of erosion and recession, which could lead to tidal inundation of sites such as the RSPB Minsmere Reserve and power generation infrastructure at Sizewell. This research responds to the need for sustainable shoreline management plans of the UK east coast through sensitivity studies at the Dunwich-Sizewell area, Suffolk, UK. Particular interest is on the long-term morphodynamic response of the study area to possible environmental variations associated with global climate change. Key coastal processes, i.e. current, waves and sediment transport, and morphological evolution are studied using a process-based numerical model under the following scenarios: current mean sea level + calm wave conditions, current mean sea level + storms, sea level rise + calm wave conditions, and sea level rise + storms, all with a 'do nothing' management plan which allows the coastal environment to exist and respond dynamically. As a further aspect of this research, rules will be generalized for reduced-complexity, system-based modelling. Alternative management plans, including 'managed realignment' and 'advance the line', are also investigated in this research under the same environmental forcing scenarios, for the purposes of protection of infrastructure of national importance and conservation of wetland habitats. Both 'hard' and 'soft' engineering options, such as groynes and beach nourishment respectively, are considered. A more ecohydrological option which utilizes aquatic plant communities for wave energy dissipation and sediment trapping is also studied. The last option requires the numerical models to be modified based on understandings obtained through analysis of on-site observations and laboratory measurements.

Environmental Assessment: Construct New Pavilion Playground at Grand Forks AFB, North Dakota

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-07-12

Mean Sea Level National Ambient Air Quality Standards Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act North Dakota North Dakota National...cottonwood, and green ash. Dutch elm disease has killed many of the elms. European buckthorn (a highly invasive exotic species), chokecherry, and...foot. Land at the base is relatively flat, with elevations ranging from 880 to 920 feet mean sea level (MSL) and averaging about 890 feet MSL. The land

Forecasting sea fog on the coast of southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.; Huang, B.; Liu, C.; Tu, J.; Wen, G.; Mao, W.

2016-12-01

Forecast sea fog is still full of challenges. We have performed the numerical forecasting of sea fog on the coast of southern China by using the operational meso-scale regional model GRAPES (Global/Regional assimilation and prediction system). The GRAPES model horizontal resolution was 3km and with 66 vertical levels. A total of 72 hours forecasting of sea fog was conducted with hourly outputs over the sea fog event. The results show that the model system can predict reasonable characteristics of typical sea fog events on the coast of southern China. The scope of sea fog coincides with the observations of meteorological stations, the observations of the Marine Meteorological Science Experiment Base (MMSEB) at Bohe, Maoming and satellite products of sea fog. The goal of this study is to establish an operational numerical forecasting model system of sea fog on the coast of southern China.

Multi-objective spatial tools to inform maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic Sea.

PubMed

Depellegrin, Daniel; Menegon, Stefano; Farella, Giulio; Ghezzo, Michol; Gissi, Elena; Sarretta, Alessandro; Venier, Chiara; Barbanti, Andrea

2017-12-31

This research presents a set of multi-objective spatial tools for sea planning and environmental management in the Adriatic Sea Basin. The tools address four objectives: 1) assessment of cumulative impacts from anthropogenic sea uses on environmental components of marine areas; 2) analysis of sea use conflicts; 3) 3-D hydrodynamic modelling of nutrient dispersion (nitrogen and phosphorus) from riverine sources in the Adriatic Sea Basin and 4) marine ecosystem services capacity assessment from seabed habitats based on an ES matrix approach. Geospatial modelling results were illustrated, analysed and compared on country level and for three biogeographic subdivisions, Northern-Central-Southern Adriatic Sea. The paper discusses model results for their spatial implications, relevance for sea planning, limitations and concludes with an outlook towards the need for more integrated, multi-functional tools development for sea planning. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A search for scale in sea-level studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, C.E.; Clark, I.

2006-01-01

Many researchers assume a proportional relationship among the atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and sea level. Thus, the rate of sea-level rise should increase in concert with the documented exponential increase in CO2. Although sea surface temperature has increased in places over the past century and short-term sea level rose abruptly during the 1990s, it is difficult to demonstrate a proportional relationship using existing geologic or historic records. Tide gauge records in the United States cover too short a time interval to verify acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, although multicentury tide gauge and staff records from the Netherlands and Sweden suggest a mid-19th-century acceleration in sea-level rise. Reconstructions of sea-level changes for the past 1000 years derived using benthic foraminifer data from salt marshes along the East Coast of the United States suggest an increased rate of relative sea-level rise beginning in the 1600s. Geologic records of relative sea-level rise for the past 6000 years are available for several sites along the US East Coast from 14C-dated basal peat below salt marshes and estuarine sediments. When these three scales of sea-level variation are integrated, adjusted for postglacial isostatic movement, and replotted, the range of variation in sea level suggested by basal peat ages is within ??1 meter of the long-term trend. The reconstruction from Long Island Sound data shows a linear rise in sea level beginning in the mid-1600s at a rate consistent with the historic record of mean high water. Long-term tide gauge records from Europe and North America show similar trends since the mid-19th century. There is no clear proportional exponential increase in the rate of sea-level rise. If proportionality exists among sea level, atmospheric CO2, and temperature, there may be a significant time lag before an anthropogenic increase in the rate of sea-level rise occurs.

Adapting to Sea Level Rise to the Year 2100 and Beyond in the State of Florida, USA: A Regional Approach Based upon Common Vulnerabilities and the Utility of Shared Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, R. W.; Harlem, P. W.; Meeder, J.

2014-12-01

We simulate the vulnerability of all 35 Florida coastal counties to the ongoing Anthropocene marine transgression unconstrained by the artificial end date of year 2100. Coastal submergence was emulated using a 'bathtub model' and rising sea level associated with an atmospheric temperature increase of +1 oC to +4 oC (see Levermann et al. [1]). Simulation results are organized into seven regions, each representing an area of common vulnerability characterized in this study as high (9% to 30% land loss), higher (16 to 68% land loss) and highest (48% to 97% land loss). This grouping provides a logical basis for establishing or re-enforcing collaboration based upon a common threat and the utility of shared technical and financial resources. Our bathtub model assumes Florida terrain is simply submerged as the shoreline migrates across a static landscape without change in the physical and biological materials subject to marine transgression. However, geologic studies of past and present Florida shorelines indicate the rate of rise is as important as the magnitude when predicting coastal response. To determine the utility of the bathtub model as a representative simulation of Florida's response to future sea level rise, we considered Florida's coastal response to varying rates of sea level rise over the last 14,000 years. Available data clearly demonstrate predicted rates of sea level rise will result in widespread submergence; the rate of rise will be too fast to be offset by the stabilizing forces of biogenic or physical sediment accumulation. Hence the magnitude of land loss and associated shoreline retreat in each of the seven Florida regions - and likely other coastal zones in the southeast U.S. - will be solely a function of topographic elevation and can therefore be reasonably forecast using a bathtub model. While our focus is on Florida's coastal counties, we recognize in some regions the effects of sea level rise will extend further inland. In these areas, the regional boundaries could be expanded to include adjacent non-coastal counties. However, differences in the perception of risk and associated vulnerability between coastal and inland counties may complicate timely collaboration. References: [1] A. Levermann et al. (2013), The Multi-Millennial Sea-Level Commitment of Global Warming, doi:10.1073/pnas.1219414110.

Steric sea level change in the Bay of Bengal: investigating the most variable component of sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uebbing, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen; Rietbroek, Roelof; Shum, Ck

2015-04-01

Regional sea level change is influenced by contributions from mass sources, like melting of glaciers and the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, as well as steric contributions from changes in temperature and salinity of the oceans. Radar altimetry indicates a sea level trend in the Bay of Bengal of about 6 mm- yr over the time period of 2002-2014, which is significantly larger than the global mean trend. Here, we explain 80% of this rise by steric contributions and 20% by mass-related contributions. The increased rise of sea level in the Bay of Bengal threatens the coastal vulnerability of the surrounding countries like Bangladesh, where this effect is exacerbated in combination with land subsidence of the very low lying coastal areas. The BanD-AID (Bangladesh Delta: Assessment of the Causes of Sea-level Rise Hazards and Integrated Development of Predictive Modeling Towards Mitigation and Adaptation) project tries to assess the current and future sea level rise and its impacts on the people living in the threatened coastal areas. As a part of this, it is necessary to analyze the different mass and steric contributors to the total sea level rise to aid in the prediction of future risks. We use data from radar altimetry and the GRACE mission to separate the total sea level rise into contributions from mass sources and steric changes. In our approach, temporal GRACE gravity data and Jason-1 and -2 along track altimetry data are fitted to time invariant spatial patterns (fingerprints) to avoid problems with GRACE resolution, filtering, geocenter and related issues. Our results show that in the Bay of Bengal the steric component is influenced by annual and interannual phenomena and, at the same time, it is significantly larger compared to the individual mass contributions, which show a linear and relatively stable behavior over time. We validate the steric component of our inversion by comparing it to independent steric estimates from 4-D gridded temperature and salinity products from different ARGO processing facilities. We also compare to the classical approach of subtracting the mass component, estimated by GRACE, from the total sea level change, measured by altimetry. Furthermore, we assess the sensitivity of our inversion to the normalized steric fingerprints, which are either based on ARGO fields or derived from ocean modeling. While most steric changes are taking place in the upper 700 m of the ocean, our inversion also allows us to (indirectly) assess the influence from the deep ocean, which is not negligible for the total steric trend.

Examining spatial variability in relative sea-level in the New York City/New Jersey region during the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, Jennifer; Clear, Jennifer; Garcia-Artola, Ane; Khan, Nicole; Shaw, Timothy; Corbett, Reide; Kemp, Andrew; Kopp, Robert; Horton, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions extend the 20th century instrumental record (tide gauge and satellite measurements) of spatial and temporal sea-level variability to provide a much longer context for recent trends and projected RSL rise. Common Era (last 2000 years) RSL reconstructions illustrate patterns of natural variability and include natural phases of climate and sea-level which will improve our knowledge basis for sea-level responses to climate changes. The northeast U.S. has exhibited varying rates in relative sea-level rise through the Common Era, primarily due to glacial isostatic adjustment. However, other factors such as ocean/atmosphere dynamics, sediment compaction, and the static equilibrium response to land ice changes, further influence the evolution of relative sea-level. The spatial variability is manifest in the tide gauge records. The tide gauge at the Battery, New York City (1856 to 2015) records a relative sea-level rise of 2.8 mm/yr whereas the tide gauge at Sandy Hook, New Jersey (1932 to 2015), 25 km southeast, records 4.1 mm/yr. Here we present a new reconstruction of RSL in northern New Jersey using geological and tide gauge data. A Common Era sea-level record from northern New Jersey fills in the spatial gap between records completed in southern New Jersey, New York City, and Connecticut. Our field study site is in Cheesequake State Park, where we observed sedimentary sequences dating back 2000 cal. yrs. BP. We use microfossil indicators preserved in salt-marsh sediments as a proxy to reconstruct RSL with decimeter precision. Salt-marsh foraminifera act as reliable RSL indicators because their modern distribution is strongly linked to tidal elevation. The recent application of microfossil-based transfer functions has enabled continuous records of RSL, extending centuries before the modern instrumental period, to be produced with a full consideration of uncertainty. We use a composite chronology of AMS 14C, pollen chrono-horizons, pollution histories, and a 137Cs spike (AD 1963) to achieve multi-decadal temporal precision. The RSL record for northern New Jersey shows a 2.4 m rise during the past 2000 years at a mean rate of 1.2 mm/yr. This compares to rates from a database of Holocene relative sea-level observations for the U.S. Atlantic coast which found a rise of 1.4 mm/yr for New Jersey and 1.3 mm/yr for New York from 4 ka BP to AD 1900 (Engelhart and Horton, 2012).

Variations in mid-ocean ridge magmatism and carbon emissions driven by glacial cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, R. F.; Burley, J. M.; Huybers, P. J.; Langmuir, C. H.; Crowley, J. W.; Park, S. H.; Carbotte, S. M.; Ferguson, D.; Proistosescu, C.; Boulahanis, B.

2015-12-01

Glacial cycles transfer ˜5×10^19 kg of water between the oceans and ice sheets, causing pressure changes in the upper mantle with consequences for the melting of Earth's interior. Forced with Plio-Pleistocene sea-level variations, theoretical models of mid-ocean ridge magma/mantle dynamics predict temporal variations up to 10% in melt supply to the base of the crust. Moreover, a transport model for a perfectly incompatible element suggests that CO2 emissions from mid-ocean ridges could vary by a similar proportion, though with a longer time-lag.Bathymetry from the Australian-Antarctic ridge shows statistically significant spectral energy near the Milankovitch periods of 23, 41, and 100 thousand years, which is consistent with model predictions. These results suggest that abyssal hills record the magmatic response to changes in sea level. The mechanism by which variations in the rate of melt supply are expressed in the bathymetry is not understood.The same pressure variations that modulate the melting rate could also modulate the depth of the onset of silicate melting. As ice sheets grow and sea level drops, this onset deepens, causing melting at the base of the silicate melting regime. Excess highly incompatible elements like CO2 enter the melt and begin their journey to the ridge axis. Tens of thousands of years later, this additional CO2 flux is emitted into the climate system. Because of its delay with respect to sea-level change, the predicted variation in CO2 emissions could represent a restoring force on climate (and sea-level) excursions. This mechanism has a response time determined by the time scale of melt transport; it potentially introduces a resonant frequency into the climate system.

Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Simple Search-Based Web Tool for Local Sea Level Rise Projections, Coastal Flood Risk Forecasts, and Inundation Exposure Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauss, B.; Dodson, D.; Kulp, S. A.; Rizza, D. H.

2016-12-01

Surging Seas Risk Finder (riskfinder.org) is an online tool for accessing extensive local projections and analysis of sea level rise; coastal floods; and land, populations, contamination sources, and infrastructure and other assets that may be exposed to inundation. Risk Finder was first published in 2013 for Florida, New York and New Jersey, expanding to all states in the contiguous U.S. by 2016, when a major new version of the tool was released with a completely new interface. The revised tool was informed by hundreds of survey responses from and conversations with planners, local officials and other coastal stakeholders, plus consideration of modern best practices for responsive web design and user interfaces, and social science-based principles for science communication. Overarching design principles include simplicity and ease of navigation, leading to a landing page with Google-like sparsity and focus on search, and to an architecture based on search, so that each coastal zip code, city, county, state or other place type has its own webpage gathering all relevant analysis in modular, scrollable units. Millions of users have visited the Surging Seas suite of tools to date, and downloaded thousands of files, for stated purposes ranging from planning to business to education to personal decisions; and from institutions ranging from local to federal government agencies, to businesses, to NGOs, and to academia.

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2005-12-01

Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous, distributed, and integrated surface-water and ground-water model. It can simulate one-dimensional canal/stream flow and two-dimensional overland and groundwater flow in arbitrarily shaped areas using a variable triangular mesh. The overland and groundwater flow components are fully coupled in the RSM for a more realistic representation of runoff generation.

Can sea level rise cause large submarine landslides on continental slopes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urlaub, Morelia

2014-05-01

Submarine landslides are one of the volumetrically most important sediment transport processes at continental margins. Moreover, these landslides are a major geohazard as they can cause damaging tsunamis and destroy seabed infrastructure. Due to their inaccessibility our understanding of what causes these landslides is limited and based on hypotheses that are difficult to test. Some of the largest submarine landslides, such as the Storegga Slide off Norway, occurred during times of eustatic sea level rise. It has been suggested that this global sea level rise was implicated in triggering of the landslides by causing an increase in excess pore pressure in the subseafloor. However, in a homogeneous slope a change in the thickness of the overlying water mass is not expected to affect its stability, as only the hydrostatic pressure component will change, whereas pore pressures in excess of hydrostatic will remain unaltered. Whether sufficiently rapid sea level rise, aided by rather impermeable sediment and complex layering, could cause excess pore pressures that may destabilise a continental slope is more difficult to answer and has not yet been tested. I use Finite Element Modelling to explore and quantify the direct effect of changes in the thickness of the overlying water mass on the stability of a generic sediment column with different stratigraphic conditions and hydro-mechanical properties. The results show that the direct effect of sea level rise on continental slope stability is minimal. Nevertheless, sea level rise may foster other processes, such as lithospheric stress changes resulting in increased seismicity, that could potentially cause large submarine landslides on continental slopes.

Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and its application to habitat sustainability for endangered species in the San Francisco Estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Thorne, Karen M.; Casazza, Michael L.; Overton, Cory T.; Callaway, John C.; Takekawa, John Y.

2014-01-01

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.

The influence of high viscosity slabs on post-glacial sea-level change: the case of Barbados

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austermann, Jacqueline; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Latychev, Konstantin

2013-04-01

The coral record at Barbados is one of the best available measures of relative sea level during the last glacial cycle and has been widely used to reconstruct ice volume (or, equivalently, eustatic sea-level, ESL) changes during the last deglaciation phase of the ice age. However, to estimate ESL variations from the local relative sea level (RSL) history at Barbados, one has to account for the contaminating effect of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). In previous work, the GIA signal at this site has been corrected for by assuming a spherically symmetric (i.e., 1-D) viscoelastic Earth. Since Barbados is located at the margin of the South American - Caribbean subduction zone, this assumption may introduce a significant error in inferences of ice volumes. To address this issue, we use a finite-volume numerical code to model GIA in the Caribbean region including the effects of a lithosphere with variable elastic thickness, plate boundaries, lateral variations in lower mantle viscosity, and a high viscosity slab within the upper mantle. The geometry of the subducted slab is inferred from local seismicity. We find that predictions of relative sea-level change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Caribbean region are diminished by ~10 m, relative to 1-D calculations, which suggests that previous studies have underestimated post-LGM ESL change by the same amount. This perturbation, which largely reflects the impact of the high viscosity slab, is nearly twice the total GIA-induced departure from eustasy predicted at Barbados using the 1-D Earth model. Our calculations imply an excess ice-volume equivalent to ~130 m ESL at the LGM, which brings the Barbados-based estimate into agreement with inferences based on other far-field RSL histories, such as at Bonaparte Gulf. This inference, together with recent studies that have substantially lowered estimates of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass at LGM, suggest that a significant amount of ice remains unaccounted for in sea-level based ice sheet reconstructions. In addition, we conclude that inference of ice age ice volumes derived from RSL histories at sites in proximity to subduction zones must incorporate slab structure into the numerical predictions of the GIA process.

Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2017-08-01

The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

New evidence for "far-field" Holocene sea level oscillations and links to global climate records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Clark, T. R.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Zhao, J.-x.

2018-04-01

Rising sea level in the coming century is of significant concern, yet predicting relative sea level change in response to eustatic sea level variability is complex. Potential analogues are provided by the recent geological past but, until recently, many sea level reconstructions have been limited to millennial scale interpretations due to age uncertainties and paucity in proxy derived records. Here we present a sea level history for the tectonically stable "far-field" Great Barrier Reef, Australia, derived from 94 high precision uranium-thorium dates of sub-fossil coral microatolls. Our results provide evidence for at least two periods of relative sea level instability during the Holocene. These sea level oscillations are broadly synchronous with Indo-Pacific negative sea surface temperature anomalies, rapid global cooling events and glacial advances. We propose that the pace and magnitude of these oscillations are suggestive of eustatic/thermosteric processes operating in conjunction with regional climatic controls.

The Last Interglacial sea level change: new evidence from the Abrolhos islands, West Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisenhauer, A.; Zhu, Z. R.; Collins, L. B.; Wyrwoll, K. H.; Eichstätter, R.

U-series ages measured by thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (TIMS) are reported for a Last Interglacial (LI) fossil coral core from the Turtle Bay, Houtman Abrolhos islands, western Australia. The core is 33.4m long the top of which is approximately 5ma.p.s.l. (above present sea level). From the 232Th concentrations and the reliability of the U-series ages, two sections in the core can be distinguished. Calculated U/Th ages in core sectionI (3.3ma.p.s.l to 11mb.p.s.l) vary between 124+/-1.7kaBP (3.3ma.p.s.l.) and 132.5+/-1.8ka (4mb.p.s.l., i.e. below present sea level), and those of sectionII (11-23mb.p.s.l.) between 140+/-3 and 214+/-5kaBP, respectively. The ages of core sectionI are in almost perfect chronological order, whereas for sectionII no clear age-depth relationship of the samples can be recognised. Further assessments based on the ∂234U(T) criteria reveal that none of the samples of core sectionII give reliable ages, whereas for core sectionI several samples can be considered to be moderately reliable within 2ka. The data of the Turtle Bay core complement and extend our previous work from the Houtman Abrolhos showing that the sea level reached a height of approximately 4mb.p.s.l at approximately 134kaBP and a sea level highstand of at least 3.3ma.p.s.l. at approximately 124kaBP. Sea level dropped below its present position at approximately 116kaBP. Although the new data are in general accord with the Milankovitch theory of climate change, a detailed comparison reveals considerable differences between the Holocenand LI sea level rise as monitored relative to the Houtman Abrolhos islands. These observation apparently add further evidence to the growing set of data that the LI sea level rise started earlier than recognised by SPECMAP chronology. A reconciliation of these contradictionary observations following the line of arguments presented by Crowley (1994) are discussed with respect to the Milankovitch theory.

Depositional and sea-level history from MIS 6 (Termination II) to MIS 3 on the southern continental shelf of South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cawthra, H. C.; Jacobs, Z.; Compton, J. S.; Fisher, E. C.; Karkanas, P.; Marean, C. W.

2018-02-01

Pleistocene shoreline deposits comprised of calcified shallow marine (palaeobeach) and aeolian (palaeodune) facies found along mid-latitude coastlines can be useful indicators of past sea levels. Here, we describe a succession of such deposits that are presently exposed both above (subaerial) and below (submerged) mean sea level along the southern Cape coast of South Africa, 18 km east of the town of Mossel Bay. The submerged units provide a window on Late Pleistocene coastal processes, as palaeoshoreline deposits in this study extend to water depths of up to 55 m on the mid-shelf. Five sedimentary facies were identified in the strata and were compared to modern depositional environments of the local littoral zone, which include aeolian dune, upper shoreface, foreshore, intertidal swash and back-barrier settings. Twenty-two geological units were observed and mapped. Some of these units were directly dated with optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. OSL ages were obtained for ten samples from the subaerial and twelve samples from the submerged deposits. Those geological units not directly dated were interpreted based on sedimentology and field/stratigraphic relationships to dated units. The stratigraphy and chronology of the succession indicates a record of initial deposition during Termination II (T-II) meltwater events, preceding and leading to marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e. Indicators for multiple sea-level fluctuations between MIS 5d and MIS 4, and sediment deposition at the end of MIS 4 and start of MIS 3 are also found. Both regressive and transgressive depositional cycles are well-preserved in the succession. We propose that palaeodune and palaeobeach deposits along the South Coast of South Africa have no clear preference for deposition during sea-level transgressions or regressions. Sediment deposition more closely mirrors the rate of sea level change, with deposition and preservation either during times of rapid sea-level movement, or oscillation around still-stand events. Periods of relatively slow average rise or fall of sea level are represented by erosional planation surfaces in this record.

A process for developing and revising a learning progression on sea level rise using learners' explanations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Robert Christopher

The purpose of this study was to explore the process of developing a learning progression (LP) on constructing explanations about sea level rise. I used a learning progressions theoretical framework informed by the situated cognition learning theory. During this exploration, I explicitly described my decision-making process as I developed and revised a hypothetical learning progression. Correspondingly, my research question was: What is a process by which a hypothetical learning progression on sea level rise is developed into an empirical learning progression using learners' explanations? To answer this question, I used a qualitative descriptive single case study with multiple embedded cases (Yin, 2014) that employed analytic induction (Denzin, 1970) to analyze data collected on middle school learners (grades 6-8). Data sources included written artifacts, classroom observations, and semi-structured interviews. Additionally, I kept a researcher journal to track my thinking about the learning progression throughout the research study. Using analytic induction to analyze collected data, I developed eight analytic concepts: participant explanation structures varied widely, global warming and ice melt cause sea level rise, participants held alternative conceptions about sea level rise, participants learned about thermal expansion as a fundamental aspect of sea level rise, participants learned to incorporate authentic scientific data, participants' mental models of the ocean varied widely, sea ice melt contributes to sea level rise, and participants held vague and alternative conceptions about how pollution impacts the ocean. I started with a hypothetical learning progression, gathered empirical data via various sources (especially semi-structured interviews), revised the hypothetical learning progression in response to those data, and ended with an empirical learning progression comprising six levels of learner thinking. As a result of developing an empirically based LP, I was able to compare two learning progressions on the same topic. By comparing my learning progression with the LP in Breslyn, McGinnis, McDonald, and Hestness (2016), I was able to confirm portions of the two learning progressions and explore different possible pathways for learners to achieve progress towards upper anchors of the LPs through targeted instruction. Implications for future LP research, curriculum, instruction, assessment, and policy related to learning progressions are presented.

Interannual Variation of Sea Level in the South Atlantic Based on Satellite Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grodsky, S. A.; Carton, J. A.

2006-07-01

13 years of altimeter month ly sea level ar e used to explore interannual variability of the South Atlantic. The strongest v ariability outside the eastern and western boundaries is conf ined to a relatively narrow zonally oriented band b etw een 35°S and 25°S, the Agulhas eddy corridor. On th eir way across th e South Atlantic th e Agulh as eddies g ain energy on the southern flank of the eddy corridor via baro tropic conversions by deceler ating the South Atlan tic Curren t. On interannual time scales the sea level in the corridor fluctu ates out of phase in the w est and east r evealing noticeab le v ariations of 10 cm amp litude at 4 to 5 year periods.

Muon Simulation at the Daya Bay SIte

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mengyun, Guan; Jun, Cao; Changgen, Yang

2006-05-23

With a pretty good-resolution mountain profile, we simulated the underground muon background at the Daya Bay site. To get the sea-level muon flux parameterization, a modification to the standard Gaisser's formula was introduced according to the world muon data. MUSIC code was used to transport muon through the mountain rock. To deploy the simulation, first we generate a statistic sample of sea-level muon events according to the sea-level muon flux distribution formula; then calculate the slant depth of muon passing through the mountain using an interpolation method based on the digitized data of the mountain; finally transport muons through rockmore » to get underground muon sample, from which we can get results of muon flux, mean energy, energy distribution and angular distribution.« less

Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) ‐ New functionality for predicting changes in distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation in response to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee II, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Frazier, Melanie R; McCoy, Lee M; Clinton, Patrick J.; Clough, Jonathan S.

2014-01-01

The “Sea‐Level Affecting Marshes Model” (SLAMM) is a moderate resolution model used to predict the effects of sea level rise on marsh habitats (Craft et al. 2009). SLAMM has been used extensively on both the west coast (e.g., Glick et al., 2007) and east coast (e.g., Geselbracht et al., 2011) of the United States to evaluate potential changes in the distribution and extent of tidal marsh habitats. However, a limitation of the current version of SLAMM, (Version 6.2) is that it lacks the ability to model distribution changes in seagrass habitat resulting from sea level rise. Because of the ecological importance of SAV habitats, U.S. EPA, USGS, and USDA partnered with Warren Pinnacle Consulting to enhance the SLAMM modeling software to include new functionality in order to predict changes in Zostera marina distribution within Pacific Northwest estuaries in response to sea level rise. Specifically, the objective was to develop a SAV model that used generally available GIS data and parameters that were predictive and that could be customized for other estuaries that have GIS layers of existing SAV distribution. This report describes the procedure used to develop the SAV model for the Yaquina Bay Estuary, Oregon, appends a statistical script based on the open source R software to generate a similar SAV model for other estuaries that have data layers of existing SAV, and describes how to incorporate the model coefficients from the site‐specific SAV model into SLAMM to predict the effects of sea level rise on Zostera marina distributions. To demonstrate the applicability of the R tools, we utilize them to develop model coefficients for Willapa Bay, Washington using site‐specific SAV data.

Sea Level Rise, Rainfall and Coastal Flooding in Northeastern U.S. Cities Vivien Gornitz, Radley Horton, Philip Orton, Nickitas Georgas, Alan Blumberg, and Cynthia Rosenzweig

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gornitz, V.; Horton, R. M.; Orton, P. M.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Rosenzweig, C.

2012-12-01

Populations and infrastructure along much of the northeastern coast of the United States will become increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of rising sea level and storm surges over the coming century. This vulnerability is amplified by regional land subsidence and likely also by shifts in ocean circulation. Building upon recent studies for the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), New York State ClimAid assessment, and the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment, we report new regional sea level rise projections based on the latest CMIP-5 global climate models (GCMs) and RCP emission scenarios, adjusted for revised glacial ice melt contributions, and other factors such as gravitational effects, land water storage, and changes in the Atlantic Meriodional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Over the coming two years, GCM-derived sea level outputs for future decades will be utilized in risk assessments for coastal flooding in New York City, Boston, and Philadelphia, as part of the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast-RISA project. The Stevens Institute Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM) will be used to produce best estimates (including uncertainty ranges) of sea level rise impacts for a wide range of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones for the 2010s, 2050s, and 2080s. Major improvements over prior studies include (a) the use of a detailed, extensively validated ocean model, and (b) inclusion of rainfall and river flow influences on coastal flooding, which affect flood levels in enclosed tidal waterways (e.g., the Hudson and Delaware Rivers), and which are also likely important in coastal confluence zones of impermeable urbanized watersheds. In addition to the sea level rise results, we present initial model validation results for historical storms.

Integrating Thematic Web Portal Capabilities into the NASA Earthdata Web Infrastructure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, Minnie; Baynes, Kathleen E.; Huang, Thomas; McLaughlin, Brett

2015-01-01

This poster will present the process of integrating thematic web portal capabilities into the NASA Earth data web infrastructure, with examples from the Sea Level Change Portal. The Sea Level Change Portal will be a source of current NASA research, data and information regarding sea level change. The portal will provide sea level change information through articles, graphics, videos and animations, an interactive tool to view and access sea level change data and a dashboard showing sea level change indicators.

Climate Sensitivity Runs and Regional Hydrologic Modeling for Predicting the Response of the Greater Florida Everglades Ecosystem to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, Jayantha; Barnes, Jenifer; Nungesser, Martha

2015-04-01

It is important to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida and to determine the resilience and robustness of greater Everglades restoration plans under future climate change. The current climate models, at both global and regional scales, are not ready to deliver specific climatic datasets for water resources investigations involving future plans and therefore a scenario based approach was adopted for this first study in restoration planning. We focused on the general implications of potential changes in future temperature and associated changes in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and sea levels at the regional boundary. From these, we developed a set of six climate and sea level scenarios, used them to simulate the hydrologic response of the greater Everglades region including agricultural, urban, and natural areas, and compared the results to those from a base run of current conditions. The scenarios included a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, ±10 % change in precipitation, and a 0.46 m (1.5 feet) increase in sea level for the 50-year planning horizon. The results suggested that, depending on the rainfall and temperature scenario, there would be significant changes in water budgets, ecosystem performance, and in water supply demands met. The increased sea level scenarios also show that the ground water levels would increase significantly with associated implications for flood protection in the urbanized areas of southeastern Florida.

Quaternary sea level high-stand deposits of the southeast U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain: Age, distribution, and implications.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poirier, R. K.; Cronin, T. M.; Ghaleb, B.; Portell, R.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; Wehmiller, J. F.; Thompson, W. G.; Oches, E. A.; Willard, D. A.; Katz, M. E.

2015-12-01

Emerged Quaternary paleo-shorelines and marine deposits provide a more direct way to reconstruct and analyze sea-level variability than methods using oxygen isotope analyses of deep ocean benthic foraminifera. New Uranium-series dates on fossil corals (primarily Astrangia spp. and Septastrea spp.) combined with previously published dates have allowed us to constrain the age, elevation, and geographical distribution of marine sediments deposited in the United States Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) from Virginia to Florida during periods of past high relative sea level (SL). We present new dates from deposits (VA/NC: Tabb/Norfolk, Nassawadox, & Omar Formations; SC: Wando, Socastee, & Canepatch Formations; FL: Anastasia, Ft. Thompson, & Bermont Formations) representing interglacial high-stands during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5, 7, 9, and 11. In addition, we incorporate stratigraphic, marine micropaleontologic, and palynologic records with our SL chronology to reconstruct a more complete history of middle-to-late Pleistocene interglacial climates of the ACP. Ultimately, these results will test modeled sea-level fingerprint studies based on various melting scenarios of the Greenland and/or Antarctic ice sheets.

Contributions of a Strengthened Early Holocene Monsoon and Sediment Loading to Present-Day Subsidence of the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpytchev, M.; Ballu, V.; Krien, Y.; Becker, M.; Goodbred, S.; Spada, G.; Calmant, S.; Shum, C. K.; Khan, Z.

2018-02-01

The contribution of subsidence to relative sea level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta (GBD) is largely unknown and may considerably enhance exposure of the Bengal Basin populations to sea level rise and storm surges. This paper focuses on estimating the present-day subsidence induced by Holocene sediment in the Bengal Basin and by oceanic loading due to eustatic sea level rise over the past 18 kyr. Using a viscoelastic Earth model and sediment deposition history based on in situ measurements, results suggest that massive sediment influx initiated in the early Holocene under a strengthened South Asian monsoon may have contributed significantly to the present-day subsidence of the GBD. We estimate that the Holocene loading generates up to 1.6 mm/yr of the present-day subsidence along the GBD coast, depending on the rheological model of the Earth. This rate is close to the twentieth century global mean sea level rise (1.1-1.7 mm/yr). Thus, past climate change, by way of enhanced sedimentation, is impacting vulnerability of the GBD populations.

The complex reality of sea-level rise in an atoll nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.

2012-12-01

Sea-level rise famously poses an existential threat to island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives. Yet as the global mean sea-level rises, the response of any one location at any given time will depend on the natural variability in regional sea-level and other impact of local human activities on coastal processes. As with climate warming, the state of an individual shoreline or the extent of flooding on a given day is not proof of a sea-level trend, nor is a global sea-level trend a good predictor of individual flooding or erosion events. Failure to consider the effect of natural variability and local human activity on coastal processes often leads to misattribution of flooding events and even some long-term shoreline changes to global sea level rise. Moreover, unverified attribution of individual events or changes to specific islets to sea level rise can inflame or invite scepticism of the strong scientific evidence for an accelerating increase in the global sea level due to the impacts of human activity on the climate system. This is particularly important in developing nations like Kiribati, which are depending on international financial support to adapt to rising sea levels. In this presentation, I use gauge data and examples from seven years of field work in Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of Kiribati, to examine the complexity of local sea level and shoreline change in one of the world's most vulnerable countries. First, I discuss how the combination of El Nino-driven variability in sea-level and the astronomical tidal cycle leads to flooding and erosion events which can be mistaken for evidence of sea-level rise. Second, I show that human modification to shorelines has redirected sediment supply, leading, in some cases, to expansion of islets despite rising sea levels. Taken together, the analysis demonstrates the challenge of attributing particular coastal events to global mean sea-level rise and the impact on decision-making. The presentation concludes with a discussion of the implications for attribution research, discourse about sea-level rise, and adaptation planning.

How can climate change and engineered water conveyance affect sediment dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, Fernanda; Van der Wegen, Mick; Roelvink, Jan Adriaan; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2017-01-01

Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health.

Contribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karabil, Sitar; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit

2018-01-01

The main purpose of this study is to quantify the contribution of atmospheric factors to recent off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea on interannual timescales. For this purpose, we statistically analysed sea-level records from tide gauges and satellite altimetry and several climatic data sets covering the last century. Previous studies had concluded that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main pattern of atmospheric variability affecting sea level in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in wintertime. However, we identify a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely connected to sea-level variability than the NAO. This circulation pattern displays a link to sea level that remains stable through the 20th century, in contrast to the much more variable link between sea level and the NAO. We denote this atmospheric variability mode as the Baltic Sea and North Sea Oscillation (BANOS) index. The sea-level pressure (SLP) BANOS pattern displays an SLP dipole with centres of action located over (5° W, 45° N) and (20° E, 70° N) and this is distinct from the standard NAO SLP pattern in wintertime. In summertime, the discrepancy between the SLP BANOS and NAO patterns becomes clearer, with centres of action of the former located over (30° E, 45° N) and (20° E, 60° N). This index has a stronger connection to off-shore sea-level variability in the study area than the NAO in wintertime for the period 1993-2013, explaining locally up to 90 % of the interannual sea-level variance in winter and up to 79 % in summer. The eastern part of the Gulf of Finland is the area where the BANOS index is most sensitive to sea level in wintertime, whereas the Gulf of Riga is the most sensitive region in summertime. In the North Sea region, the maximum sea-level sensitivity to the BANOS pattern is located in the German Bight for both winter and summer seasons. We investigated, and when possible quantified, the contribution of several physical mechanisms which may explain the link between the sea-level variability and the atmospheric pattern described by the BANOS index. These mechanisms include the inverse barometer effect (IBE), freshwater balance, net energy surface flux and wind-induced water transport. We found that the most important mechanism is the IBE in both wintertime and summertime. Assuming a complete equilibration of seasonal sea level to the SLP gradients over this region, the IBE can explain up to 88 % of the sea-level variability attributed to the BANOS index in wintertime and 34 % in summertime. The net energy flux at the surface is found to be an important factor for the variation of sea level, explaining 35 % of sea-level variance in wintertime and a very small amount in summer. The freshwater flux could only explain 27 % of the variability in summertime and a negligible part in winter. In contrast to the NAO, the direct wind forcing associated with the SLP BANOS pattern does not lead to transport of water from the North Sea into the Baltic Sea in wintertime.

The Effects of Snow Depth Forcing on Southern Ocean Sea Ice Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powel, Dylan C.; Markus, Thorsten; Stoessel, Achim

2003-01-01

The spatial and temporal distribution of snow on sea ice is an important factor for sea ice and climate models. First, it acts as an efficient insulator between the ocean and the atmosphere, and second, snow is a source of fresh water for altering the already weak Southern Ocean stratification. For the Antarctic, where the ice thickness is relatively thin, snow can impact the ice thickness in two ways: a) As mentioned above snow on sea ice reduces the ocean-atmosphere heat flux and thus reduces freezing at the base of the ice flows; b) a heavy snow load can suppress the ice below sea level which causes flooding and, with subsequent freezing, a thickening of the sea ice (snow-to-ice conversion). In this paper, we compare different snow fall paramterizations (incl. the incorporation of satellite-derived snow depth) and study the effect on the sea ice using a sea ice model.

The impact of half-a-degree Celsius upon the spatial pattern of future sea-level change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Luke

2017-04-01

It has been shown that the global thermal expansion of sea level and ocean dynamics are linearly related to global temperature change. On this basis one can estimate the difference in local sea-level change between a 1.5°C and 2.0°C world. The mitigation scenario RCP 2.6 shows an end-of-century global temperature range of 0.9 to 2.3°C (median 1.6°C). Additional sea-level components, such as mass changes in ice sheets, glaciers and land-water storage have unique spatial patterns that contribute to sea-level change and will be indirectly affected by global temperature change. We project local sea-level change for RCP 2.6 using sub-sets of models in the CMIP5 archive that follow different global temperature pathways. The method used to calculate local sea-level change is probabilistic and combines the normalised spatial patterns of sea-level components with global average projections of individual sea-level components.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

PubMed Central

MIMURA, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

Incorporating Sediment Compaction Into a Gravitationally Self-consistent Model for Global Sea-level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrier, K.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2015-12-01

In sedimentary deltas and fans, sea-level changes are strongly modulated by the deposition and compaction of marine sediment. The deposition of sediment and incorporation of water into the sedimentary pore space reduces sea level by increasing the elevation of the seafloor, which reduces the thickness of sea-water above the bed. In a similar manner, the compaction of sediment and purging of water out of the sedimentary pore space increases sea level by reducing the elevation of the seafloor, which increases the thickness of sea water above the bed. Here we show how one can incorporate the effects of sediment deposition and compaction into the global, gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model of Dalca et al. (2013). Incorporating sediment compaction requires accounting for only one additional quantity that had not been accounted for in Dalca et al. (2013): the mean porosity in the sediment column. We provide a general analytic framework for global sea-level changes including sediment deposition and compaction, and we demonstrate how sea level responds to deposition and compaction under one simple parameterization for compaction. The compaction of sediment generates changes in sea level only by changing the elevation of the seafloor. That is, sediment compaction does not affect the mass load on the crust, and therefore does not generate perturbations in crustal elevation or the gravity field that would further perturb sea level. These results have implications for understanding sedimentary effects on sea-level changes and thus for disentangling the various drivers of sea-level change. ReferencesDalca A.V., Ferrier K.L., Mitrovica J.X., Perron J.T., Milne G.A., Creveling J.R., 2013. On postglacial sea level - III. Incorporating sediment redistribution. Geophysical Journal International, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt089.

Reef productivity and preservation during the Late Neogene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husson, Laurent; Pastier, Anne-Morwenn; Schmitt, Anais; Sarr, Anta-Clarisse; Elliot, Mary; Pedoja, Kevin; Bezos, Antoine

2016-04-01

During the glacial-interglacials cycles that prevailed during Plio-Pleistocence times, the pace of sea level oscillations exerts a major control on coral reef growth and expansion. We designed a numerical model to quantify reef productivity and carbonate preservation that accounts for sea level oscillations, reef growth, erosion and subsequent geomorphological carving. We carried out a parametric study of a variety of processes (reef growth, erosion, local slope, uplift and subsidence, relative sea level, etc) towards a probabilistic analysis of reef productivity and carbonate production. We further test the effect of the frequency and amplitude of sea level oscillations using sea level curves derived from both the 18O isotope record of past sea level change and synthetic sinusoidal sea level curves. Over a typical climate cycle, our model simulations confirm that the rate of sea level change is the primary controlling factor of reef production, as it modifies the productivity by several orders of magnitude. Most importantly, reef productivity increases during periods of sea level rise, and decreases during sea level stands, while conversely, the morphology records the opposite in a misleading fashion: Reef terraces expand during sea level stands due to the joint effects of erosion and patient reef growth at a stationary level until the accommodation space is filled up. On the long-term, over the Plio-Pleistocene period, vertical ground motion also significantly alters the production: moderate uplift or subsidence can boost reef productivity up to tenfold with respect to a stationary coastline. Last, the amplitude and frequency of the sea level oscillations (typically 40 kyrs vs. 100 kyrs periods) moderately impact reef productivity. These results can be ultimately converted into estimates of carbonate production and carbon sequestration during the Late Neogene, provided relative sea level is documented in the tectonically agitated intertropical zone.

Exploratory drilling and aquifer testing at the Kipahulu District, Haleakala National Park, Maui, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Souza, W.R.

1983-01-01

An exploratory well, located at 388 feet above sea level in Kipahulu Valley on Maui, Hawaii, was completed and tested in October 1980. The 410-foot well penetrates a series of very dense basaltic lava flows of the Hana Formation. At an elevation of 10 feet above mean sea level, the well penetrated a water-bearing zone of permeable basaltic rock. Water from this zone had a head of about 76 feet above sea level. In October of 1980, the well was pump tested for 9 hours at various discharge rates up to 350 gallons per minute with a maximum drawdown of about 12 feet. Based on the test data, the well should produce water at a rate of 200 gallons per minute with a drawdown of less than 3 feet. The water level in the well was continuously monitored from October 1980 to mid-November 1981, during which period a maximum decline of 20 feet was recorded. Water level fluctuations in the well can be correlated to the flow in nearby Palikea Stream. The long-term water level in the well should stabilize at about 75 feet above sea level. Water quality was excellent. The total dissolved-solids content was 49 milligrams per liter and the chloride content was 4.2 milligrams per liter. (USGS)

A near uniform basin-wide sea level fluctuation over the Japan/East Sea: A semienclosed sea with multiple straits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seung-Bum; Fukumori, Ichiro

2008-06-01

Sea level of the Japan/East Sea observed by the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) satellite altimeter is analyzed using a 1/4°-resolution ocean general circulation model. A significant fraction of the Japan/East Sea sea level variability is found to be spatially uniform with periods ranging from 20 d to a year. The model simulation is consistent with T/P records in terms of the basin-wide sea level fluctuation's spectral energy and coherence. The simulation indicates that the changes are barotropic in nature and controlled, notably at high frequencies, by the net mass transport through the straits of the Japan/East Sea driven by winds in the vicinity of the Korea/Tsushima and Soya Straits. A series of barotropic simulations suggest that the sea level fluctuations are the result of a dynamic balance at the straits among near-strait winds, friction, and geostrophic control. The basin-wide sea level response is a linear superposition of changes due to winds near the individual straits. In particular, a basin-wide sea level response can be established by winds near either one of the straits alone. For the specific geometry and winds, winds near the Soya Strait have a larger impact on the Japan/East Sea mean sea level than those near the Korea/Tsushima Strait.

Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Notz, Dirk

2018-02-01

We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P> 99%) for global warming of +2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5°C warming (P≪ 1%) and has low likelihood (P≈ 10%) to disappear even for +2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.

Geochronology and subsurface stratigraphy of Pukapuka and Rakahanga atolls, Cook Islands: Late Quaternary reef growth and sea level history

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, S.C.; Hein, J.R.; Hausmann, R.; Radtke, U.

1992-01-01

Eustatic sea-level cycles superposed on thermal subsidence of an atoll produce layers of high sea-level reefs separated by erosional unconformities. Coral samples from these reefs from cores drilled to 50 m beneath the lagoons of Pukapuka and Rakahanga atolls, northern Cook Islands give electron spin resonance (ESR) and U-series ages ranging from the Holocene to 600,000 yr B.P. Subgroups of these ages and the stratigraphic position of their bounding unconformities define at least 5 periods of reef growth and high sea-level (0-9000 yr B.P., 125,000-180,000 yr B.P., 180,000-230,000 yr B.P., 300,000-460,000 yr B.P., 460,000-650,000 yr B.P.). Only two ages fall within error of the last interglacial high sea-level stand (???125,000-135,000 yr B.P.). This paucity of ages may result from extensive erosion of the last intergracial reef. In addition, post-depositional isotope exchange may have altered the time ages of three coral samples to apparent ages that fall within glacial stage 6. For the record to be preserved, vertical accretion during rising sea-level must compensate for surface lowering from erosion during sea-level lowstands and subsidence of the atoll; erosion rates (6-63 cm/1000 yr) can therefore be calculated from reef accretion rates (100-400 cm/1000 yr), subsidence rates (2-6 cm/1000 yr), and the duration of island submergence (8-15% of the last 600,000 yr). The stratigraphy of coral ages indicates island subsidence rates of 4.5 ?? 2.8 cm/1000 yr for both islands. A model of reef growth and erosion based on the stratigraphy of the Cook Islands atolls suggests average subsidence and erosion rates of between 3-6 and 15-20 cm/1000 yr, respectively. ?? 1992.

Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100, implying that physically plausible upper limits on future sea-level rise might need to be reconsidered.

[Vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under sea-level rise].

PubMed

Cui, Li-Fang; Wang, Ning; Ge, Zhen-Ming; Zhang, Li-Quan

2014-02-01

To study the response of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on the coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisite for securing coastal ecosystems. In this paper, the possible impacts of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model and IPCC definition on the vulnerability. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment was established, in which sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, habitat elevation, inundation threshold of habitat and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability index for the assessment of coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the scenarios of sea-level rise. The vulnerability assessments on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary in 2030 and 2050 were performed under two sea-level rise scenarios (the present sea-level rise trend over recent 30 years and IPCC A1F1 scenario). The results showed that with the projection in 2030 under the present trend of sea-level rise (0.26 cm x a(-1)), 6.6% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.8% and 0.2% of the coastal wetlands were in low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively. With the projection in 2030 under the A1F1 scenario (0.59 cm x a(-1)), 9.0% and 0.1% of the coastal wetlands were in the low and moderate vulnerabilities, respectively; and in 2050, 9.5%, 1.0% and 0.3% of the coastal wetlands were in the low, moderate and high vulnerabilities, respectively.

Sea Level Trend and Variability in the Straits of Singapore and Malacca

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luu, Q.; Tkalich, P.

2013-12-01

The Straits of Singapore and Malacca (SSM) connect the Andaman Sea located northeast of the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea, the largest marginal sea situated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Consequently, sea level in the SSM is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale sea level variability is dominant by the Asian monsoon. Interannual sea level signals are modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In the long term, regional sea level is driven by the global climate change. However, relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on regional sea level in the SSM are yet to be quantified. In present study, publicly available tide gauge records and satellite altimetry data are used to derive long-term sea level trend and variability in SSM. We used the data from research-quality stations, including four located in the Singapore Strait (Tanjong Pagar, Raffles Lighthouse, Sultan Shoal and Sembawang) and seven situated in the Malacca Strait (Kelang, Keling, Kukup, Langkawji, Lumut, Penang and Ko Taphao Noi), each one having 25-39 year data up to the year 2011. Harmonic analysis is performed to filter out astronomic tides from the tide gauge records when necessary; and missing data are reconstructed using identified relationships between sea level and the governing phenomena. The obtained sea level anomalies (SLAs) and reconstructed mean sea level are then validated against satellite altimetry data from AVISO. At multi-decadal scale, annual measured sea level in the SSM is varying with global mean sea level, rising for the period 1984-2009 at the rate 1.8-2.3 mm/year in the Singapore Strait and 1.1-2.8 mm/year in the Malacca Strait. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ×5 cm with correlation coefficient of -0.7 (in correspondence with the Multivariate ENSO Index). The IOD modulates interannual sea level variability only in the Malacca Strait in the range of ×3 cm with a correlation coefficient of -0.6 (with respect to the Dipole Mode Index). At annual scale, SLAs in the SSM are mainly monsoon-driven; of the order of 20 cm. Mean sea level in the Singapore Strait reach the peak during northeast monsoon and trough during southwest monsoon; while these in the Malacca Strait are highest at middle of both monsoons and lowest during their transitional monsoonal seasons. Global and regional signals are quantitatively captured in the SSM. In comparison with the global sea level trends, SSM sea level rise are larger for recent decades 1984-2009. Taking into account the rough estimate of land subsidence rates in Singapore (2006-2011) and Peninsular Malaysia (1994-2004), the trend of absolute sea level rise in SSM follows regional tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO modulates sea level variabilities in the entire SSM region, while IOD affects the Malacca Strait only. At annual scale, sea level responds differently to the Asian monsoon: quasi-periodic cycles are observed twice a year in the Malacca Strait, but once a year in the Singapore Strait. Such behavior implies that the narrow channel constriction between the Singapore and Malacca Straits may be a reason of different variability of sea level in the domains.

Dasymetric high resolution population distribution estimates for improved decision making, with a case study of sea-level rise vulnerability in Boca Raton, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziegler, Hannes Moritz

Planners and managers often rely on coarse population distribution data from the census for addressing various social, economic, and environmental problems. In the analysis of physical vulnerabilities to sea-level rise, census units such as blocks or block groups are coarse relative to the required decision-making application. This study explores the benefits offered from integrating image classification and dasymetric mapping at the household level to provide detailed small area population estimates at the scale of residential buildings. In a case study of Boca Raton, FL, a sea-level rise inundation grid based on mapping methods by NOAA is overlaid on the highly detailed population distribution data to identify vulnerable residences and estimate population displacement. The enhanced spatial detail offered through this method has the potential to better guide targeted strategies for future development, mitigation, and adaptation efforts.

A stochastic storm surge generator for the German North Sea and the multivariate statistical assessment of the simulation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Jensen, Jürgen; Mudersbach, Christoph

2010-05-01

Storm surges along the German North Sea coastline led to major damages in the past and the risk of inundation is expected to increase in the course of an ongoing climate change. The knowledge of the characteristics of possible storm surges is essential for the performance of integrated risk analyses, e.g. based on the source-pathway-receptor concept. The latter includes the storm surge simulation/analyses (source), modelling of dike/dune breach scenarios (pathway) and the quantification of potential losses (receptor). In subproject 1b of the German joint research project XtremRisK (www.xtremrisk.de), a stochastic storm surge generator for the south-eastern North Sea area is developed. The input data for the multivariate model are high resolution sea level observations from tide gauges during extreme events. Based on 25 parameters (19 sea level parameters and 6 time parameters) observed storm surge hydrographs consisting of three tides are parameterised. Followed by the adaption of common parametric probability distributions and a large number of Monte-Carlo-Simulations, the final reconstruction leads to a set of 100.000 (default) synthetic storm surge events with a one-minute resolution. Such a data set can potentially serve as the basis for a large number of applications. For risk analyses, storm surges with peak water levels exceeding the design water levels are of special interest. The occurrence probabilities of the simulated extreme events are estimated based on multivariate statistics, considering the parameters "peak water level" and "fullness/intensity". In the past, most studies considered only the peak water levels during extreme events, which might not be the most important parameter in any cases. Here, a 2D-Archimedian copula model is used for the estimation of the joint probabilities of the selected parameters, accounting for the structures of dependence overlooking the margins. In coordination with subproject 1a, the results will be used as the input for the XtremRisK subprojects 2 to 4. The project is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Project No. 03 F 0483 B).

Taphonomic problems in reconstructing sea-level history from the late Quaternary marine terraces of Barbados

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhs, Daniel; Simmons, Kathleen R.

2017-01-01

Although uranium series (U-series) ages of growth-position fossil corals are important to Quaternary sea-level history, coral clast reworking from storms can yield ages on a terrace dating to more than one high-sea stand, confounding interpretations of sea-level history. On northern Barbados, U-series ages corals from a thick storm deposit are not always younger with successively higher stratigraphic positions, but all date to the last interglacial period (~127 ka to ~112 ka), Marine Isotope Substage (MIS) 5.5. The storm deposit ages are consistent with the ages of growth-position corals found at the base of the section and at landward localities on this terrace. Thus, in this case, analysis of only a few corals would not have led to an error in interpreting sea-level history. In contrast, a notch cut into older Pleistocene limestone below the MIS 5.5 terrace contains corals that date to both MIS 5.5 (~125 ka) and MIS 5.3 (~108 ka). We infer that the notch formed during MIS 5.3 and the MIS 5.5 corals are reworked. Similar multiple ages of corals on terraces have been reported elsewhere on Barbados. Thus, care must be taken in interpreting U-series ages of corals that are reported without consideration of taphonomy.

Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar Survey of Subsidence in Hampton Roads, Virginia (USA).

PubMed

Bekaert, D P S; Hamlington, B D; Buzzanga, B; Jones, C E

2017-11-07

Over the past century, the Hampton Roads area of the Chesapeake Bay region has experienced one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United States. This rate of relative sea level rise results from a combination of land subsidence, which has long been known to be present in the region, and rising seas associated with global warming on long timescales and exacerbated by shifts in ocean dynamics on shorter timescales. An understanding of the current-day magnitude of each component is needed to create accurate projections of future relative sea level rise upon which to base planning efforts. The objective of this study is to estimate the land component of relative sea level rise using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis applied to ALOS-1 synthetic aperture radar data acquired during 2007-2011 to generate high-spatial resolution (20-30 m) estimates of vertical land motion. Although these results are limited by the uncertainty associated with the small set of available historical SAR data, they highlight both localized rates of high subsidence and a significant spatial variability in subsidence, emphasizing the need for further measurement, which could be done with Sentinel-1 and NASA's upcoming NISAR mission.

Incorporating Infrastructure and Vegetation Effects on Sea Level Rise Predictions in Low-Gradient Coastal Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, J. F.; Sandi Rojas, S.; Trivisonno, F.; Saco, P. M.; Riccardi, G.

2015-12-01

At the regional and global scales, coastal management and planning for future sea level rise scenarios is typically supported by modelling tools that predict the expected inundation extent. These tools rely on a number of simplifying assumptions that, in some cases, may result in important overestimation or underestimation of the inundation extent. One of such cases is coastal wetlands, where vegetation strongly affects both the magnitude and the timing of inundation. Many coastal wetlands display other forms of flow restrictions due to, for example, infrastructure or drainage works, which also alters the inundation patterns. In this contribution we explore the effects of flow restrictions on inundation patterns under sea level rise conditions in coastal wetlands. We use a dynamic wetland evolution model that not only incorporates the effects of flow restrictions due to culverts, bridges and weirs as well as vegetation, but also considers that vegetation changes as a consequence of increasing inundation. We apply our model to a coastal wetland in Australia and compare predictions of our model to predictions using conventional approaches. We found that some restrictions accentuate detrimental effects of sea level rise while others moderate them. We also found that some management strategies based on flow redistribution that provide short term solution may result more damaging in the long term if sea level rise is considered.

An Update of Sea Level Rise in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alothman, Abdulaziz; Bos, Machiel; Fernandes, Rui

2017-04-01

Relative sea level variations in the northwestern part of the Arabian Gulf have been estimated in the past using no more than 10 to 15 years of observations. In Alothman et al. (2014), we have almost doubled the period to 28.7 years by examining all available tide gauge data in the area and constructing a mean gauge time-series from seven coastal tide gauges. We found for the period 1979-2007 a relative sea level rise of about 2mm/yr, which correspond to an absolute sea level rise of about 1.5mm/yr based on the vertical displacement of GNSS stations in the region. By taking into account the temporal correlations we concluded that previous published results underestimate the true sea level rate error in this area by a factor of 5-10. In this work, we discuss and update the methodology and results from Alothman et al. (2014), particularly by checking and extending the GNSS solutions. Since 3 of the 6 GPS stations used only started observing in the end of 2011, the longer time series have now significantly lower uncertainties in the estimated vertical rate. In addition, we compare our results with GRACE derived ocean bottom pressure time series which are a good proxy of the changes in water mass in this area over time.

A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest U.S. military installations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chadwick, B.; Flick, Reinhard; Helly, J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Pei, Fang Wang; O'Reilly, W.; Guza, R.; Bromirski, Peter; Young, A.; Crampton, W.; Wild, B.; Canner, I.

2011-01-01

We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S.

The flooding of the San Matías Gulf: The Northern Patagonia sea-level curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isla, Federico Ignacio

2013-12-01

Northern Patagonia is characterised by tectonic depressions below present sea level. Some of them are today flooded by the sea; others remain emerged although they are at altitudes of - 50 m (Bajo del Gualicho), - 35 m (Salinas Grandes) and - 7 m (Salina La Piedra). San Matías Gulf also was such an emerged depression below contemporary mean sea level during the Late Pleistocene. It flooded between 11,500 and 11,000 years ago, when the sea level surpassed the sill of the gulf (today 50 m below mean sea level) during postglacial sea-level rise. In those days, shrublands extended on the slopes of the tectonic depression. In-situ pieces of woods dredged from the bottom of the gulf at depths of 70 m gave a conventional age of 11,310 ± 150 years BP. We used the wood, together with dated shells from the continental shelf, and shells and organic matter dated from the San Blas, Negro and Chubut coastal plains to construct a sea-level curve. Sea level rise surpassed the present level somewhat before 6000 years BP, reaching a maximum stand of + 6 m. It has since gently diminished towards present sea level.

Loggerhead sea turtle environmental sex determination: implications of moisture and temperature for climate change based predictions for species survival.

PubMed

Wyneken, Jeanette; Lolavar, Alexandra

2015-05-01

It has been proposed that because marine turtles have environmentally determined sex by incubation temperature, elevated temperatures might skew sex ratios to unsustainable levels, leading to extinction. Elevated temperatures may also reduce availability of suitable nesting sites via sea level rise. Increased tropical storm activity can directly affect nest site moisture, embryonic development, and the probability that nests will survive. Here, we question some of these assumptions and review the limits of sex ratio estimates. Sea turtles may be more resilient to climate change than previously thought, in part because of hitherto unappreciated mechanisms for coping with variable incubation conditions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Analysis of present and future potential compound flooding risk along the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevacqua, Emanuele; Maraun, Douglas; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Widmann, Martin; Manning, Colin; Vrac, Mathieu

2017-04-01

The coastal zone is the natural border between the sea and the mainland, and it is constantly under the influence of marine and land-based natural and human-induced pressure. Compound floods are extreme events occurring in coastal areas where the interaction of joint high sea level and large amount of precipitation causes extreme floodings. Typically the risk of flooding in coastal areas is defined analysing either sea level or precipitation driven floodings, however compound floods should be considered to avoid an underestimation of the risk. In the future, the human pressure at the coastal zone is expected to increase, urging for a comprehensive analysis of the compound flooding risk under different climate change scenarios. In this study we introduce the concept of "potential risk" as we investigate how often large amount of precipitation and high sea level may co-occur, and not the effective impact due to the interaction of these two hazards. The effective risk of compound flooding in a specific place depends also on the local orography and on the existing protections. The estimation of the potential risk of compound flooding is useful to individuate places where an effective risk of compound flooding may exist, and where further studies would be useful to get more precise information on the local risk. We estimate the potential risk of compound flooding along the European coastal zone incorporating the ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis for the past and present state, and the future projections from two RCP scenarios (namely the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) as derived from 8 CMIP5 models of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Sea level data are estimated by forcing the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow with 6-hourly wind and atmospheric pressure fields. Based on sea level (storm surge and astronomical tide) and precipitation joint occurrence analysis, a map of the potential compound flooding risk along the European coast is proposed and critical places with high potential risk are identified. For these critical places, we plan to asses the potential compound flood risk driven by coinciding extreme values of sea level and river discharge. Finally, we analyse the atmospheric large scale processes that lead to compound floods and their variation under future climate change scenarios.

Implications of sediment redistribution on modeled sea-level changes over millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrier, Ken

2016-04-01

Sea level is a critical link in feedbacks among topography, tectonics, and climate. Over millennial timescales, changes in sea level reshape river networks, regulate organic carbon burial, influence sediment deposition, and set moving boundary conditions for landscape evolution. Sea-level changes influence tectonics by regulating rates and patterns of erosion and deposition, which perturb the surface loads that drive geodynamic processes at depth. These interactions are complex because sea-level changes are influenced by the geomorphic processes that they themselves modify, since sediment redistribution deforms the gravitational and crustal elevation fields that define sea level. A recent advance in understanding the coupling between sea level, tectonics, and topography was the incorporation of sediment redistribution into a gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model, which permits the computation of sea-level responses to erosion and deposition (Dalca et al., 2013, Geophysical Journal International). Here I use this model to quantify changes in sea level resulting from the erosion of some of the most rapidly eroding sites on Earth and the deposition of sediment offshore. These model results show that the sea-level fingerprints of sediment redistribution are strongly variable in space, and that they can represent a significant component of the total sea level change since the last interglacial. This work provides a basis for understanding a fundamental driver of landscape evolution at some of Earth's most geomorphically dynamic sites, and thus aids investigation of the couplings among tectonics, climate, and topography. References Dalca A.V., Ferrier K.L., Mitrovica J.X., Perron J.T., Milne G.A., Creveling J.R., 2013. On postglacial sea level - III. Incorporating sediment redistribution. Geophysical Journal International, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt089.

Global DEM Errors Underpredict Coastal Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise and Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulp, Scott; Strauss, Benjamin

2016-04-01

Elevation data based on NASA's Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) have been widely used to evaluate threats from global sea level rise, storm surge, and coastal floods. However, SRTM data are known to include large vertical errors in densely urban or densely vegetated areas. The errors may propagate to derived land and population exposure assessments. We compare assessments based on SRTM data against references employing high-accuracy bare-earth elevation data generated from lidar data available for coastal areas of the United States. We find that both 1-arcsecond and 3-arcsecond horizontal resolution SRTM data systemically underestimate exposure across all assessed spatial scales and up to at least 10m above the high tide line. At 3m, 1-arcsecond SRTM underestimates U.S. population exposure by more than 60%, and under-predicts population exposure in 90% of coastal states, 87% of counties, and 83% of municipalities. These fractions increase with elevation, but error medians and variability fall to lower levels, with national exposure underestimated by just 24% at 10m. Results using 3-arcsecond SRTM are extremely similar. Coastal analyses based on SRTM data thus appear to greatly underestimate sea level and flood threats, especially at lower elevations. However, SRTM-based estimates may usefully be regarded as providing lower bounds to actual threats. We additionally assess the performance of NOAA's Global Land One-km Base Elevation Project (GLOBE), another publicly-available global DEM, but do not reach any definitive conclusion because of the spatial heterogeneity in its quality.

Remote sensing of the coastal ocean with standard geodetic GNSS-equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löfgren, J. S.; Haas, R.; Larson, K. M.; Scherneck, H.-G.

2012-04-01

We use standard geodetic Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) equipment to perform remote sensing measurements of the coastal ocean. This is done by a so-called GNSS-based tide gauge that uses both direct GNSS-signals and GNSS-signals that are reflected off the sea surface. Our installation is located at the Onsala Space Observatory (OSO) at the west coast of Sweden and consists of a zenith-looking Right Hand Circularly Polarized (RHCP) and a nadir-looking Left Hand Circularly Polarized (LHCP) antenna. Each antenna is connected to a standard geodetic-type GNSS-receiver. We applied two different analysis strategies to our GNSS data set. The first strategy is based on a traditional geodetic differential analysis [Löfgren et al., 2011] and makes use of the data from both receivers; connected to the zenith and the nadir looking antennae. This approach results in local sea level that is automatically corrected for land motion, meaning that the GNSS-based tide gauge can provide reliable sea-level estimates even in tectonic active regions. The second strategy focuses on the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) recorded with the receiver connected to the zenith-looking antenna [Larson et al., 2011]. The SNR is affected by multipath originating from the sea surface reflections. Analysis of the SNR data allows to determine the distance between the antenna and the reflecting surface, and thus to measure sea surface height. Results from both analysis strategies are compared to independently observed sea-level data from two stilling-well gauges operated by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), which lie in a distance of several km from OSO. The root-mean-square agreement between the different time series of several month's length is on the order of 5 cm and better. These results indicate the large potential for using coastal GNSS-sites for the monitoring of the coastal ocean.

PACT - a bottom pressure based, compact deep-ocean tsunameter with acoustic surface coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macrander, A.; Gouretski, V.; Boebel, O.

2009-04-01

The German-Indonsian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) processes a multitude of information to comprehensively and accurately evaluate the possible risks inherent to seismic events around Indonesia. Within just a few minutes, measurements of the vibration and horizontal movements off the coastal regions of Indonesia provide a clear picture of the location and intensity of a seaquake. However, not every seaquake causes a tsunami, nor is every tsunami caused by a seaquake. To avoid nerve-wrecking and costly false alarms and to protect against tsunamis caused by landslides, the oceanic sea-level must be measured directly. This goal is pursued in the GITEWS work package "ocean instrumentation", aiming at a a highest reliability and redundancy by developing a set of independent instruments, which measure the sea-level both offshore in the deep ocean and at the coast on the islands off Indonesia. Deep ocean sea-level changes less than a centimetre can be detected by pressure gauges deployed at the sea floor. Based on some of the concepts developed as part of the US DART system, a bottom pressure based, acoustically coupled tsunami detector (PACT) was developed under the auspices of the AWI in collaboration with two German SME and with support of University of Bremen and University of Rhode Island. The PACT system records ocean bottom pressure, performs on-board tsunami detection and acoustically relays the data to the surface buoy. However, employing computational powers and communication technologies of the new millennium, PACT integrates the entire sea-floor package (pressure gauge, data logger and analyzer, acoustic modem, acoustic release and relocation aids) into a single unit, i.e. a standard benthos sphere. PACT thereby reduces costs, minimizes the deployment efforts, while maximizing reliability and maintenance intervals. Several PACT systems are scheduled for their first deployment off Indonesia during 2009. In this presentation, the technical specifications and results from extensive laboratory and at-sea tests are shown.

A global compilation of coral sea-level benchmarks: Implications and new challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina-Elizalde, Martín

2013-01-01

I present a quality-controlled compilation of sea-level data from U-Th dated corals, encompassing 30 studies of 13 locations around the world. The compilation contains relative sea level (RSL) data from each location based on both conventional and open-system U-Th ages. I have applied a commonly used age quality control criterion based on the initial 234U/238U activity ratios of corals in order to select reliable ages and to reconstruct sea level histories for the last 150,000 yr. This analysis reveals scatter of RSL estimates among coeval coral benchmarks both within individual locations and between locations, particularly during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5a and the glacial inception following the last interglacial. The character of data scatter during these time intervals imply that uncertainties still exist regarding tectonics, glacio-isostacy, U-series dating, and/or coral position. To elucidate robust underlying patterns, with confidence limits, I performed a Monte Carlo-style statistical analysis of the compiled coral data considering appropriate age and sea-level uncertainties. By its nature, such an analysis has the tendency to smooth/obscure millennial-scale (and finer) details that may be important in individual datasets, and favour the major underlying patterns that are supported by all datasets. This statistical analysis is thus functional to illustrate major trends that are statistically robust ('what we know'), trends that are suggested but still are supported by few data ('what we might know, subject to addition of more supporting data and improved corrections'), and which patterns/data are clear outliers ('unlikely to be realistic given the rest of the global data and possibly needing further adjustments'). Prior to the last glacial maximum and with the possible exception of the 130-120 ka period, available coral data generally have insufficient temporal resolution and unexplained scatter, which hinders identification of a well-defined pattern with usefully narrow confidence limits. This analysis thus provides a framework that objectively identifies critical targets for new data collection, improved corrections, and integration of coral data with independent, stratigraphically continuous methods of sea-level reconstruction.

Caribbean Sea Level Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Crespo Jones, H.

2012-12-01

Over the past 500 years almost 100 tsunamis have been observed in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic, with at least 3510 people having lost their lives to this hazard since 1842. Furthermore, with the dramatic increase in population and infrastructure along the Caribbean coasts, today, millions of coastal residents, workers and visitors are vulnerable to tsunamis. The UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for Tsunamis and other Coastal Hazards for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) was established in 2005 to coordinate and advance the regional tsunami warning system. The CARIBE EWS focuses on four areas/working groups: (1) Monitoring and Warning, (2) Hazard and Risk Assessment, (3) Communication and (4) Education, Preparedness and Readiness. The sea level monitoring component is under Working Group 1. Although in the current system, it's the seismic data and information that generate the initial tsunami bulletins, it is the data from deep ocean buoys (DARTS) and the coastal sea level gauges that are critical for the actual detection and forecasting of tsunamis impact. Despite multiple efforts and investments in the installation of sea level stations in the region, in 2004 there were only a handful of sea level stations operational in the region (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Bermuda, Bahamas). Over the past 5 years there has been a steady increase in the number of stations operating in the Caribbean region. As of mid 2012 there were 7 DARTS and 37 coastal gauges with additional ones being installed or funded. In order to reach the goal of 100 operational coastal sea level stations in the Caribbean, the CARIBE EWS recognizes also the importance of maintaining the current stations. For this, a trained workforce in the region for the installation, operation and data analysis and quality control is considered to be critical. Since 2008, three training courses have been offered to the sea level station operators and data analysts. Other requirements and factors have been considered for the sustainability of the stations. The sea level stations have to potentially sustain very aggressive conditions of not only tsunamis, but on a more regular basis, hurricanes. Given the requirement that the data be available in near real time, for tsunami and other coastal hazard application, robust communication systems are also essential. For the local operator, the ability to be able to visualize the data is critical and tools like the IOC Sea level Monitoring Facility and the Tide Tool program are very useful. It has also been emphasized the need for these stations to serve multiple purposes. For climate and other research applications the data need to be archived, QC'd and analyzed. Increasing the user base for the sea level data has also been seen as an important goal to gain the local buy in; local weather and meteorological offices are considered as key stakeholders but for whom applications still need to be developed. The CARIBE EWS continues to look forward to working with other IOC partners including the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) and Sub-Commission for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (IOCARIBE)/GOOS, as well as with local, national and global sea level station operators and agencies for the development of a sustainable sea level network.

Spatial-temporal analysis of sea level changes in China seas and neighboring oceans by merged altimeter data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yao; Zhou, Bin; Yu, Zhifeng; Lei, Hui; Sun, Jiamin; Zhu, Xingrui; Liu, Congjin

2017-01-01

The knowledge of sea level changes is critical important for social, economic and scientific development in coastal areas. Satellite altimeter makes it possible to observe long term and large scale dynamic changes in the ocean, contiguous shelf seas and coastal zone. In this paper, 1993-2015 altimeter data of Topex/Poseidon and its follow-on missions is used to get a time serious of continuous and homogeneous sea level anomaly gridding product. The sea level rising rate is 0.39 cm/yr in China Seas and the neighboring oceans, 0.37 cm/yr in the Bo and Yellow Sea, 0.29 cm/yr in the East China Sea and 0.40 cm/yr in the South China Sea. The mean sea level and its rising rate are spatial-temporal non-homogeneous. The mean sea level shows opposite characteristics in coastal seas versus open oceans. The Bo and Yellow Sea has the most significant seasonal variability. The results are consistent with in situ data observation by the Nation Ocean Agency of China. The coefficient of variability model is introduced to describe the spatial-temporal variability. Results show that the variability in coastal seas is stronger than that in open oceans, especially the seas off the entrance area of the river, indicating that the validation of altimeter data is less reasonable in these seas.

Airborne geophysics for mesoscale observations of polar sea ice in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks, S.; Haas, C.; Krumpen, T.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.

2016-12-01

Sea ice thickness is an important geophysical parameter with a significant impact on various processes of the polar energy balance. It is classified as Essential Climate Variable (ECV), however the direct observations of the large ice-covered oceans are limited due to the harsh environmental conditions and logistical constraints. Sea-ice thickness retrieval by the means of satellite remote sensing is an active field of research, but current observational capabilities are not able to capture the small scale variability of sea ice thickness and its evolution in the presence of surface melt. We present an airborne observation system based on a towed electromagnetic induction sensor that delivers long range measurements of sea ice thickness for a wide range of sea ice conditions. The purpose-built sensor equipment can be utilized from helicopters and polar research aircraft in multi-role science missions. While airborne EM induction sounding is used in sea ice research for decades, the future challenge is the development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform that meet the requirements for low-level EM sea ice surveys in terms of range and altitude of operations. The use of UAV's could enable repeated sea ice surveys during the the polar night, when manned operations are too dangerous and the observational data base is presently very sparse.

The SeaDAS Processing and Analysis System: SeaWiFS, MODIS, and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, M. D.; Ruebens, M.; Wang, L.; Franz, B. A.

2005-12-01

The SeaWiFS Data Analysis System (SeaDAS) is a comprehensive software package for the processing, display, and analysis of ocean data from a variety of satellite sensors. Continuous development and user support by programmers and scientists for more than a decade has helped to make SeaDAS the most widely used software package in the world for ocean color applications, with a growing base of users from the land and sea surface temperature community. Full processing support for past (CZCS, OCTS, MOS) and present (SeaWiFS, MODIS) sensors, and anticipated support for future missions such as NPP/VIIRS, enables end users to reproduce the standard ocean archive product suite distributed by NASA's Ocean Biology Processing Group (OBPG), as well as a variety of evaluation and intermediate ocean, land, and atmospheric products. Availability of the processing algorithm source codes and a software build environment also provide users with the tools to implement custom algorithms. Recent SeaDAS enhancements include synchronization of MODIS processing with the latest code and calibration updates from the MODIS Calibration Support Team (MCST), support for all levels of MODIS processing including Direct Broadcast, a port to the Macintosh OS X operating system, release of the display/analysis-only SeaDAS-Lite, and an extremely active web-based user support forum.

Ensemble-based evaluation of extreme water levels for the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo

2016-04-01

The risks and damages associated with coastal flooding that are naturally associated with an increase in the magnitude of extreme storm surges are one of the largest concerns of countries with extensive low-lying nearshore areas. The relevant risks are even more contrast for semi-enclosed water bodies such as the Baltic Sea where subtidal (weekly-scale) variations in the water volume of the sea substantially contribute to the water level and lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using large ensembles of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. Single projections of the ensemble are constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima with various extreme value distributions. The ensemble is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. A hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and a similar hindcast by the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the annual maxima of water levels in the Baltic Sea are not always uncorrelated, we employ maxima for calendar years and for stormy seasons. As the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution changes its sign and substantially varies in magnitude along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, the use of a single distribution for the entire coast is inappropriate. The ensemble involves projections based on the Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distributions. The parameters of these distributions are evaluated using three different ways: maximum likelihood method and method of moments based on both biased and unbiased estimates. The total number of projections in the ensemble is 40. As some of the resulting estimates contain limited additional information, the members of pairs of projections that are highly correlated are assigned weights 0.6. A comparison of the ensemble-based projection of extreme water levels and their return periods with similar estimates derived from local observations reveals an interesting pattern of match and mismatch. The match is almost perfect in measurement sites where local effects (e.g., wave-induced set-up or local surge in very shallow areas that are not resolved by circulation models) do not contribute to the observed values of water level. There is, however, substantial mismatch between projected and observed extreme values for most of the Estonian coast. The mismatch is largest for sections that are open to high waves and for several bays that are deeply cut into mainland but open for predominant strong wind directions. Detailed quantification of this mismatch eventually makes it possible to develop substantially improved estimates of extreme water levels in sections where local effects considerably contribute into the total water level.

The changing architecture of sea-level lowstand deposits across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition: South Evoikos Gulf, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anastasakis, George; Piper, David J. W.

2013-08-01

On subsiding continental shelves, the style of stacked coastal and deltaic progradational packages is directly dependent on relative sea-level changes. In the past ˜0.6 Ma, sea-level change has been dominated by asymmetric 100 ka eustatic sea-level cycles, whereas the record of sea-level changes in earlier Pleistocene progradational sequences is less clear. In a steadily subsiding basin in which accommodation balances sediment flux, the depth of a eustatic lowstand determines the paleo-depth of the deepest clinoform inflection point and the seaward limit of the erosional transgressive surface, whereas the duration of a lowstand controls the amount of progradation that takes place. We report high-resolution seismic profiles of an exceptionally preserved coastal progradational sequence from a coastal embayment in the Aegean Sea that is subsiding at ˜100 m/Ma. The seismic profiles show clinoforms of smaller amplitude and volume that were deposited before the 100 ka cyclic progradational units. This contrasts with literature reports of complexity in progradational sequences at that time. We assume that published stacked benthic foram O-isotope records are a good proxy for the duration and a reasonable proxy for the amplitude of Pleistocene eustatic sea-level cycles. The MIS 6-5 eustatic sea-level rise is recognised based on sedimentation rates from cores. The underlying major progradational units are correlated with the long-duration, extreme lowstand 100 ka cycles of MIS 6, 12 and 16. Changes in the elevation of lowstand inflection points in clinoforms are used to tentatively extend the record back to MIS 38, by comparison with the benthic foram proxy. The deposits of the higher and longer highstands of MIS 25, 31 and 37 are also recognised. This record provides a testable template for future studies of short early Pleistocene sections on land and raises questions of detail about parts of the published δ18O records. It independently supports the recent evidence that the Mid-Pleistocene transition was an abrupt event, with an extreme lowstand in MIS 22.

Flooded! An Investigation of Sea-Level Rise in a Changing Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillette, Brandon; Hamilton, Cheri

2011-01-01

Explore how melting ice sheets affect global sea levels. Sea-level rise (SLR) is a rise in the water level of the Earth's oceans. There are two major kinds of ice in the polar regions: sea ice and land ice. Land ice contributes to SLR and sea ice does not. This article explores the characteristics of sea ice and land ice and provides some hands-on…

Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2014-08-01

Detection and attribution of human influence on sea level rise are important topics that have not yet been explored in depth. We question whether the sea level changes (SLC) over the past century were natural in origin. SLC exhibit power law long-term correlations. By estimating Hurst exponent through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and by applying statistics of Lennartz and Bunde, we search the lower bounds of statistically significant external sea level trends in longest tidal records worldwide. We provide statistical evidences that the observed SLC, at global and regional scales, is beyond its natural internal variability. The minimum anthropogenic sea level trend (MASLT) contributes to the observed sea level rise more than 50% in New York, Baltimore, San Diego, Marseille, and Mumbai. A MASLT is about 1 mm/yr in global sea level reconstructions that is more than half of the total observed sea level trend during the XXth century.

Brest sea level record: a time series construction back to the early eighteenth century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wöppelmann, Guy; Pouvreau, Nicolas; Simon, Bernard

2006-12-01

The completeness and the accuracy of the Brest sea level time series dating from 1807 make it suitable for long-term sea level trend studies. New data sets were recently discovered in the form of handwritten tabulations, including several decades of the eighteenth century. Sea level observations have been made in Brest since 1679. This paper presents the historical data sets which have been assembled so far. These data sets span approximately 300 years and together constitute the longest, near-continuous set of sea level information in France. However, an important question arises: Can we relate the past and the present-day records? We partially provide an answer to this question by analysing the documents of several historical libraries with the tidal data using a ‘data archaeology’ approach advocated by Woodworth ( Geophys Res Lett 26:1589 1592, 1999b). A second question arises concerning the accuracy of such records. Careful editing was undertaken by examining the residuals between tidal predictions and observations. It proved useful to remove the worst effects of timing errors, in particular the sundial correction to be applied prior to August 1, 1714. A refined correction based on sundial literature [Savoie, La gnomique, Editions Les Belles Lettres, Paris, 2001] is proposed, which eliminates the systematic offsets seen in the discrepancies in timing of the sea level measurements. The tidal analysis has also shown that shallow-water tidal harmonics at Brest causes a systematic difference of 0.023 m between mean sea level (MSL) and mean tide level (MTL). Thus, MTL should not be mixed with the time series of MSL because of this systematic offset. The study of the trends in MTL and MSL however indicates that MTL can be used as a proxy for MSL. Three linear trend periods are distinguished in the Brest MTL time series over the period 1807 2004. Our results support the recent findings of Holgate and Woodworth ( Geophys Res Lett) of an enhanced coastal sea level rise during the last decade compared to the global estimations of about 1.8 mm/year over longer periods (Douglas, J Geophys Res 96:6981 6992, 1991). The onset of the relatively large global sea level trends observed in the twentieth century is an important question in the science of climate change. Our findings point out to an ‘inflexion point’ at around 1890, which is remarkably close to that in 1880 found in the Liverpool record by Woodworth ( Geophys Res Lett 26:1589 1592, 1999b).

Anticipating Future Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storms in New York City (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, R. M.; Gornitz, V.; Bader, D.; Little, C. M.; Oppenheimer, M.; Patrick, L.; Orton, P. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.

2013-12-01

Hurricane Sandy caused 43 fatalities in New York City and 19 billion in damages. Mayor Michael Bloomberg responded by convening the second New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2), to provide up-to-date climate information for the City's Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR). The Mayor's proposed 20 billion plan aims to strengthen the City's resilience to coastal inundation. Accordingly, the NPCC2 scientific and technical support team generated a suite of temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise and extreme event projections through the 2050s. The NPCC2 sea level rise projections include contributions from ocean thermal expansion, dynamic changes in sea surface height, mass changes in glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets, and land water storage. Local sea level changes induced by changes in ice mass include isostatic, gravitational, and rotational effects. Results are derived from CMIP5 model-based outputs, expert judgment, and literature surveys. Sea level at the Battery, lower Manhattan, is projected to rise by 7-31 in (17.8-78.7cm) by the 2050s relative to 2000-2004 (10 to 90 percentile). As a result, flood heights above NAVD88 for the 100-year storm (stillwater plus waves) would rise from 15.0 ft (0.71 m) in the 2000s to 15.6-17.6 ft (4.8-5.4 m) by the 2050s (10-90 percentile). The annual chance of today's 100-year flood would increase from 1 to 1.4-5.0 percent by the 2050s.

The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, I.; Raghunath, R.; Fu, L. L.

1996-01-01

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

Environmental Assessment: Armory Addition to CATM with Parking at Grand Forks AFB, North Dakota

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-07-01

Term MBTA Migratory Bird Treaty Act MFH Military Family Housing mph Miles Per Hour MSDS Material Safety Data Sheet MSL Mean Sea Level μg/m 3...emergent aquatic plants, green algae, diatoms, diverse invertebrate animals such as sponges, flatworms, nematode worms, segmented worms, snails, clams, and...base is relatively flat; with elevations ranging from 880 to 920 ft mean sea level (MSL) and averaging about 890 ft MSL. The land slopes to the

Can human activities alter the drowning fate of barrier islands?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Ashton, A. D.; Jin, D.; Hoagland, P.; Kite-Powell, H.

2012-12-01

Low-lying coastal barriers face an uncertain future over the coming century and beyond as sea levels rise, with many projections suggesting end-of-century rates of sea-level rise as high or higher than 1 cm/yr. Geologically, such rates of sea-level rise have been experienced several thousand years ago and we can use our understanding of geological processes and sedimentary evidence to help unravel the dynamics of natural barriers experiencing sea-level rise. Along many modern coastal barriers, however, anthropic change, such as beach nourishment, dune construction, and emplacement of hard structures, plays a dominant role in coastline dynamics. A fundamental question to be addressed is whether human activities intended to preserve infrastructure and beach recreation may make wholesale collapse, or 'drowning,' of barrier systems more likely. Here we present a numerical modeling tool that couples natural processes and the human responses to these changes (and the subsequent of human responses on natural processes). Recent theoretical model development suggests that barriers are intrinsically morphodynamic features, responding to sea-level rise in complex ways through the interactions of marine processes and barrier overwash. Undeveloped coastal barriers would therefore respond to an accelerated sea-level rise in complex, less predictable manners than suggested by existing long-term models. We have developed a model that examines non-equilibrium cross-shore evolution of barrier systems at decadal to centennial temporal scales, focusing on the interactions between processes of shoreface evolution and overwash deposition. Model responses demonstrate two means of barrier collapse during sea-level rise: 'height drowning', which occurs when overwash fluxes are insufficient to maintain the landward migration rate required to keep in pace with sea-level rise, and 'width drowning', which occurs when the shoreface response is insufficient to maintain the barrier geometry during landward migration. The model also demonstrates the potential for discontinuous shoreline retreat, with alternating periods of barrier stability and rapid migration, even for constant rates of sea-level rise. Anthropic activities can strongly interact with these behaviors. In particular, considering only cross-shore processes, beach nourishment activities widen the beach and can affect shoreface fluxes, and dune building, which curtails the overwash process, can potentially enhance barrier drowning by reducing overwash fluxes. Furthermore, coastal protection activities of adjacent communities or even individual property holders can be uncoordinated or coordinated, with their effects coupled along the coast through coastal reorientation and gradients in alongshore sediment transport. In the coordinated framework, owners act in concert to alter the barrier based upon community benefits, whereas in the non-coordinated framework owners alter only their own property. Another important role in management is the perception of future sea-level-rise-associated losses—communities manage their coast differently depending on their adopted forecast for sea-level rise. We find that coordinated behavior coupled with natural processes can substantially affect the drowning scenarios from the individual decision-making process.

Evidence for latest Pleistocene to Holocene uplift at the southern margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau (CAP), southern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosentino, Domenico; Öǧretmen, Nazik; Cipollari, Paola; Gliozzi, Elsa; Radeff, Giuditta; Yıldırım, Cengiz; Baykara, Oruc M.; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2016-04-01

Along the Mediterranean coastal area of southern Anatolia, markers of ancient sea-level have been reported west of Alanya and east of the Göksu delta. In both areas, bioconstructed fossil rims, consisting mainly of calcareous algae, are situated 0.5 m above the live counterpart. The fossil rim to the west of Alanya has been dated between 2690 to 1545 yrs BP, evidencing late Holocene rock uplift at the CAP southern margin. More recently, based on beachrocks along the coastal area from Incekum to the south of Adana, authors showed that the shoreline was raised around 0.5 m after 19 BC-200 AD. Based on new field observations along the coast between Aydı ncı k and Ayaş (Mersin, southern Turkey), together with AMS 14C dating and high-resolution U-Th chronology, a more complex uplift history can be suggested. Along the coast of Yeşilovacı k, we observed up to seven uplifted marine notches, from 0.5 m to 6.10 m above sea level. Some of them show relationships with a travertine crust that yielded U-Th ages of 2727 ± 1559 years and 5236 ± 2255 years. In the same area, a calcareous algae fossil trottoir related to a marine notch 5.40 m above sea level yielded an AMS 14C 2σ age of 32700 to 31645 years cal BP. Considering that the global ocean was 60 m below the present sea level at 32 ka, the Yeşilovacı k coastal area has been uplifted at 2 mm/yr. Moving to the east, in a small embayment at Eǧribük, two distinct well cemented beach deposits containing Murex brandaris, Cerithium vulgatum, and Columbella rustica have been uplifted at 0.3 m and 0.7 m above the present sea level. Although it is difficult to reconstruct the paleodepth of those beach deposits, AMS 14C 2σ ages of 5575 to 5445 years cal BP and 2130 to 1965 years cal BP show late Holocene uplift. In the Narlı kuyu area, up to seven different uplifted markers of sea level were observed between 0.8 and 7.2 m above the present sea level. In addition, near Ayaş new insights for late Holocene uplift are from the northern harbour of the ancient Roman town Elaiussa-Sebaste, which now is 4 m above sea level. More evidence for late Holocene uplift of the Elaiussa-Sebaste area come from a Roman pool located in the small peninsula to the east of the northern harbour. There, a fossil shell of Patella cf. aspera, collected 1 m above the highest living Patella, yielded an AMS 14C 2σ age of 850 to 1164 years cal AD. Considering an age of 1000 yrs AD and the level of the Mediterranean sea that was 0.2 m below the present sea level, we can estimate a tectonic uplift rate of 1.2 mm/yr for the last 1000 years. Although the CAP southern margin shows clear evidence of recent uplift, with uplift rates between 2 mm/yr to 1.2 mm/yr, to reconstruct a well-constrained uplift curve for the Holocene more AMS 14C and U-Th dates need to be collected.

The Influence of Terrestrial Matter in Marine Food Webs of the Beaufort Sea Shelf and Slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, L.; Iken, K.; Bluhm, B.

2016-02-01

Forecasted increases in terrestrial organic matter (OMterr) inputs to the Beaufort Sea necessitate a better understanding of the contribution of this organic matter food source to the trophic structure of marine communities. This study investigated the relative ecological importance of OMterr across the Beaufort Sea shelf and slope by examining differences in community trophic structure concurrent with variation in terrestrial versus marine organic matter influence. Interannual variability in organism trophic level was assessed to confirm the persistent impact of these large-scale patterns in food source distribution on marine consumers. Oxygen stable isotope ratios (δ18O) of surface water confirmed the widespread influence of Canada's Mackenzie River plume across the Beaufort Sea. Carbon stable isotope ratios (δ13C values) of pelagic particulate organic matter (pPOM) and marine consumers from locations ranging from 20 to 1000 m bottom depth revealed a strong isotopic imprint of OMterr in the eastern Beaufort Sea, which decreased westward from the Mackenzie River. Food web length, based on the nitrogen stable isotope ratios (δ15N values) of marine consumers, was greater closer to the Mackenzie River outflow both in shelf and slope locations due to relatively higher δ15N values of pelagic and benthic primary consumers. Strong microbial processing of OMterr in the eastern regions of the Beaufort Sea is inferred based on a trophic gap between sources and lower trophic consumers. A large proportion of epifaunal biomass occupying higher trophic levels suggests that OMterr as a basal food source can provide substantial energetic support for higher marine trophic levels. These findings support the concept that terrestrial matter is an important source in the Arctic marine food web, and compel a more specific understanding of energy transfer through the OMterr-associated microbial loop.

Quantifying Population-Level Risks Using an Individual-Based Model: Sea Otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-01-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500 000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for characterizing the environmental thresholds below which no population-level effects could be detected and above which population-level effects would be expected to become manifest. This approach provides risk managers an enhanced understanding of the risks to populations under various conditions and assumptions, whether under hypothetically increased exposure regimes, as demonstrated here, or in situations in which actual exposures are near toxic effects levels. This study shows that individual-based models are especially amenable and appropriate for conducting population-level risk assessments, and that they can readily be used to answer questions about the risks to individuals and populations across a variety of exposure conditions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2012; 8: 503–522. © 2012 SETAC PMID:22275071

Quantifying population-level risks using an individual-based model: sea otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

PubMed

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-07-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500,000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for characterizing the environmental thresholds below which no population-level effects could be detected and above which population-level effects would be expected to become manifest. This approach provides risk managers an enhanced understanding of the risks to populations under various conditions and assumptions, whether under hypothetically increased exposure regimes, as demonstrated here, or in situations in which actual exposures are near toxic effects levels. This study shows that individual-based models are especially amenable and appropriate for conducting population-level risk assessments, and that they can readily be used to answer questions about the risks to individuals and populations across a variety of exposure conditions. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Generalized Cauchy model of sea level fluctuations with long-range dependence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ming; Li, Jia-Yue

2017-10-01

This article suggests the contributions with two highlights. One is to propose a novel model of sea level fluctuations (sea level for short), which is called the generalized Cauchy (GC) process. It provides a new outlook for the description of local and global behaviors of sea level from a view of fractal in that the fractal dimension D that measures the local behavior of sea level and the Hurst parameter H which characterizes the global behavior of sea level are independent of each other. The other is to show that sea level appears multi-fractal in both spatial and time. Such a meaning of multi-fractal is new in the sense that a pair of fractal parameters (D, H) of sea level is varying with measurement sites and time. This research exhibits that the ranges of D and H of sea level, in general, are 1 ≤ D < 2 and 0 . 5 < H < 1, respectively but D is independent of H. With respect to the global behavior of sea level, we shall show that H > 0 . 96 for all data records at all measurement sites, implying that strong LRD may be a general phenomenon of sea level. On the other side, regarding with the local behavior, we will reveal that there appears D = 1 or D ≈ 1 for data records at a few stations and at some time, but D > 0 . 96 at most stations and at most time, meaning that sea level may appear highly local irregularity more frequently than weak local one.

Inception of a global atlas of Holocene sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Nicole; Rovere, Alessio; Engelhart, Simon; Horton, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Determining the rates, mechanisms and geographic variability of sea-level change is a priority science question for the next decade of ocean research. To address these research priorities, the HOLocene SEA-level variability (HOLSEA) working group is developing the first standardized global synthesis of Holocene relative sea-level data to: (1) estimate the magnitudes and rates of global mean sea-level change during the Holocene; and (2) identify trends in spatial variability and decipher the processes responsible for geographic differences in relative sea-level change. Here we present the preliminary efforts of the working group to compile the database, which includes sea-level index points and limiting data from a range of different indicators across seven continents from the Last Glacial Maximum to present. We follow a standard protocol that incorporates full consideration of vertical and temporal uncertainty for each sea-level index point, including uncertainties associated with the relationship of each indicator to past sea-level and the methods used to date each indicator. We describe the composition of the global database, identify gaps in data availability, and highlight our effort to create an online platform to access the data. These data will be made available in a special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews and archived on NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in early 2018. We also invite researchers who collect or model Holocene sea-level data to participate. Long-term, this effort will enhance predictions of 21st century sea-level rise, and provide a vital contribution to the assessment of natural hazards with respect to sea-level rise and coastal response.

Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, T.W.; Krauss, K.W.; Conner, W.H.; From, A.S.

2010-01-01

Tidal freshwater forests in coastal regions of the southeastern United States are undergoing dieback and retreat from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. In many areas, tidal saltwater forests (mangroves) contrastingly are expanding landward in subtropical coastal reaches succeeding freshwater marsh and forest zones. Hydrological characteristics of these low-relief coastal forests in intertidal settings are dictated by the influence of tidal and freshwater forcing. In this paper, we describe the application of the Sea Level Over Proportional Elevation (SLOPE) model to predict coastal forest retreat and migration from projected sea-level rise based on a proxy relationship of saltmarsh/mangrove area and tidal range. The SLOPE model assumes that the sum area of saltmarsh/mangrove habitat along any given coastal reach is determined by the slope of the landform and vertical tide forcing. Model results indicated that saltmarsh and mangrove migration from sea-level rise will vary by county and watershed but greater in western Gulf States than in the eastern Gulf States where millions of hectares of coastal forest will be displaced over the next century with a near meter rise in relative sea level alone. Substantial losses of coastal forests will also occur in the eastern Gulf but mangrove forests in subtropical zones of Florida are expected to replace retreating freshwater forest and affect regional biodiversity. Accelerated global eustacy from climate change will compound the degree of predicted retreat and migration of coastal forests with expected implications for ecosystem management of State and Federal lands in the absence of adaptive coastal management.

Solving the Sea-Level Equation in an Explicit Time Differencing Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klemann, V.; Hagedoorn, J. M.; Thomas, M.

2016-12-01

In preparation of coupling the solid-earth to an ice-sheet compartment in an earth-system model, the dependency of initial topography on the ice-sheet history and viscosity structure has to be analysed. In this study, we discuss this dependency and how it influences the reconstruction of former sea level during a glacial cycle. The modelling is based on the VILMA code in which the field equations are solved in the time domain applying an explicit time-differencing scheme. The sea-level equation is solved simultaneously in the same explicit scheme as the viscoleastic field equations (Hagedoorn et al., 2007). With the assumption of only small changes, we neglect the iterative solution at each time step as suggested by e.g. Kendall et al. (2005). Nevertheless, the prediction of the initial paleo topography in case of moving coastlines remains to be iterated by repeated integration of the whole load history. The sensitivity study sketched at the beginning is accordingly motivated by the question if the iteration of the paleo topography can be replaced by a predefined one. This study is part of the German paleoclimate modelling initiative PalMod. Lit:Hagedoorn JM, Wolf D, Martinec Z, 2007. An estimate of global mean sea-level rise inferred from tide-gauge measurements using glacial-isostatic models consistent with the relative sea-level record. Pure appl. Geophys. 164: 791-818, doi:10.1007/s00024-007-0186-7Kendall RA, Mitrovica JX, Milne GA, 2005. On post-glacial sea level - II. Numerical formulation and comparative reesults on spherically symmetric models. Geophys. J. Int., 161: 679-706, doi:10.1111/j.365-246.X.2005.02553.x

Vulnerability of the Nile Delta coastal areas to inundation by sea level rise.

PubMed

Hassaan, M A; Abdrabo, M A

2013-08-01

Sea level changes are typically caused by several natural phenomena, including ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. Global average sea level is expected to rise, through the twenty-first century, according to the IPCC projections by between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea level will significantly impact coastal area of the Nile Delta, consisting generally of lowland and is densely populated areas and accommodates significant proportion of Egypt's economic activities and built-up areas. The Nile Delta has been examined in several previous studies, which worked under various hypothetical sea level rise (SLR) scenarios and provided different estimates of areas susceptible to inundation due to SLR. The paper intends, in this respect, to identify areas, as well as land use/land cover, susceptible to inundation by SLR based upon most recent scenarios of SLR, by the year 2100 using GIS. The results indicate that about 22.49, 42.18, and 49.22 % of the total area of coastal governorates of the Nile Delta would be susceptible to inundation under different scenarios of SLR. Also, it was found that 15.56 % of the total areas of the Nile Delta that would be vulnerable to inundation due to land subsidence only, even in the absence of any rise in sea level. Moreover, it was found that a considerable proportion of these areas (ranging between 32.32 and 53.66 %) are currently either wetland or undeveloped areas. Furthermore, natural and/or man-made structures, such as the banks of the International Coastal Highway, were found to provide unintended protection to some of these areas. This suggests that the inundation impact of SLR on the Nile Delta is less than previously reported.

Space use of a dominant Arctic vertebrate: Effects of prey, sea ice, and land on Pacific walrus resource selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beatty, William; Jay, Chadwick V.; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Blanchard, Arny L.; Jewett, Stephen C.

2016-01-01

Sea ice dominates marine ecosystems in the Arctic, and recent reductions in sea ice may alter food webs throughout the region. Sea ice loss may also stress Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), which feed on benthic macroinvertebrates in the Bering and Chukchi seas. However, no studies have examined the effects of sea ice on foraging Pacific walrus space use patterns. We tested a series of hypotheses that examined walrus foraging resource selection as a function of proximity to resting substrates and prey biomass. We quantified walrus prey biomass with 17 benthic invertebrate families, which included bivalves, polychaetes, amphipods, tunicates, and sipunculids. We included covariates for distance to sea ice and distance to land, and systematically developed a series of candidate models to examine interactions among benthic prey biomass and resting substrates. We ranked candidate models with Bayesian Information Criterion and made inferences on walrus resource selection based on the top-ranked model. Based on the top model, biomass of the bivalve family Tellinidae, distance to ice, distance to land, and the interaction of distances to ice and land all positively influenced walrus foraging resource selection. Standardized model coefficients indicated that distance to ice explained the most variation in walrus foraging resource selection followed by Tellinidae biomass. Distance to land and the interaction of distances to ice and land accounted for similar levels of variation. Tellinidae biomass likely represented an index of overall bivalve biomass, indicating walruses focused foraging in areas with elevated levels of bivalve and tellinid biomass. Our results also emphasize the importance of sea ice to walruses. Projected sea ice loss will increase the duration of the open water season in the Chukchi Sea, altering the spatial distribution of resting sites relative to current foraging areas and possibly affecting the spatial structure of benthic communities.

Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, Fanny; Jordà, Gabriel; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Arsouze, Thomas; Meyssignac, Benoit; Li, Laurent; Planton, Serge

2017-08-01

For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

PubMed

Mimura, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

DNA metabarcoding and microscopic analyses of sea turtles biofilms: Complementary to understand turtle behavior

PubMed Central

Vasselon, Valentin; Ballorain, Katia; Carpentier, Alice; Wetzel, Carlos E.; Ector, Luc; Bouchez, Agnès; Rimet, Frédéric

2018-01-01

Sea turtles are distributed in tropical and subtropical seas worldwide. They play several ecological roles and are considered important indicators of the health of marine ecosystems. Studying epibiotic diatoms living on turtle shells suggestively has great potential in the study of turtle behavior because diatoms are always there. However, diatom identification at the species level is time consuming, requires well-trained specialists, and there is a high probability of finding new taxa growing on turtle shells, which makes identification tricky. An alternative approach based on DNA barcoding and high throughput sequencing (HTS), metabarcoding, has been developed in recent years to identify species at the community level by using a DNA reference library. The suitabilities of morphological and molecular approaches were compared. Diatom assemblages were sampled from seven juvenile green turtles (Chelonia mydas) from Mayotte Island, France. The structures of the epibiotic diatom assemblages differed between both approaches. This resulted in different clustering of the turtles based on their diatom communities. Metabarcoding allowed better discrimination between turtles based on their epibiotic diatom assemblages and put into evidence the presence of a cryptic diatom diversity. Microscopy, for its part, provided more ecological information of sea turtles based on historical bibliographical data and the abundances of ecological guilds of the diatom species present in the samples. This study shows the complementary nature of these two methods for studying turtle behavior. PMID:29659610

DNA metabarcoding and microscopic analyses of sea turtles biofilms: Complementary to understand turtle behavior.

PubMed

Rivera, Sinziana F; Vasselon, Valentin; Ballorain, Katia; Carpentier, Alice; Wetzel, Carlos E; Ector, Luc; Bouchez, Agnès; Rimet, Frédéric

2018-01-01

Sea turtles are distributed in tropical and subtropical seas worldwide. They play several ecological roles and are considered important indicators of the health of marine ecosystems. Studying epibiotic diatoms living on turtle shells suggestively has great potential in the study of turtle behavior because diatoms are always there. However, diatom identification at the species level is time consuming, requires well-trained specialists, and there is a high probability of finding new taxa growing on turtle shells, which makes identification tricky. An alternative approach based on DNA barcoding and high throughput sequencing (HTS), metabarcoding, has been developed in recent years to identify species at the community level by using a DNA reference library. The suitabilities of morphological and molecular approaches were compared. Diatom assemblages were sampled from seven juvenile green turtles (Chelonia mydas) from Mayotte Island, France. The structures of the epibiotic diatom assemblages differed between both approaches. This resulted in different clustering of the turtles based on their diatom communities. Metabarcoding allowed better discrimination between turtles based on their epibiotic diatom assemblages and put into evidence the presence of a cryptic diatom diversity. Microscopy, for its part, provided more ecological information of sea turtles based on historical bibliographical data and the abundances of ecological guilds of the diatom species present in the samples. This study shows the complementary nature of these two methods for studying turtle behavior.

Potentiometric Surface of the Magothy Aquifer in Southern Maryland, September 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Andreasen, David C.; Staley, Andrew W.

2009-01-01

This report presents a map showing the potentiometric surface of the Magothy aquifer in the Magothy Formation of Late Cretaceous age in Southern Maryland during September 2007. The map is based on water-level measurements in 69 wells. The highest measured water level was 85 feet above sea level near the northern boundary and outcrop area of the aquifer in the north-central part of Anne Arundel County. The potentiometric surface declined towards the south. Local gradients were directed toward the center of a cone of depression in the Waldorf area that developed in response to pumping. Measured ground-water levels were as low as 90 feet below sea level in the Waldorf area.

Marine Fog over the Western Pacific Marginal Seas Based Upon Ship Observations for 1950 - 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, C. E.; Koracin, D. R.

2016-12-01

An analysis is presented of the marine fog distribution over the western Pacific marginal seas based upon the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) ship observations taken during 1950-2007. Fog occurrence is reported in routine weather reports that are encoded in an ICOADS ship observation. This includes the marginal seas of Okhotsk Sea, Japan Sea, Yellow Sea and South China Sea which have significant fog occurrences with values much greater than in the surrounding ocean with distinct seasonal trends but different generation mechanisms. The greatest occurrence is 55 % in Jun-Jul-Aug over the Okhotsk Sea followed by 28 % over the Japan Sea. This is seasonally controlled by the sea level pressure gradient moving air over a negative sea surface temperature gradient. During Dec-Jan-Feb, the SLP gradient reverses, moving cold, dry continental air over the Okhotsk and Japan Seas, eliminating any fog. The maximum fog over the Okhotsk Sea is over isolated locations with shallow water. In the Japan Sea, the most frequent fog occurs along the north side of the sea over a narrow shelf with the lowest SST of the entire Sea. In the Yellow Sea, the fog frequency peak is from Dec through May. In Mar-Apr-May the highest value is 18 % which is centered at 33 N 122 W while elevated values extend along the China coast to Taiwan. In Jun-Jul-Aug, highest values are mostly confined to the Yellow Sea. In Dec-Jan-Feb, decreased but significant fog occurrences extend along the entire China coast when the highest value in the Yellow Sea is 5 % and in South China Sea it is 6 %. The only other world marine fog occurrence analysis discovered by us is a US Department of Agriculture Jun-Jul-Aug marine fog frequency chart published in 1938 that does not show any fog in the Okhotsk Sea and misses most of the fog occurrence reported by ships in the Yellow Sea.

Quantifying and Projecting Relative Sea-Level Rise At The Regional Scale: The Bangladesh Sea-Level Project (BanD-AID)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shum, C. K.; Kuo, C. Y.; Guo, J.; Shang, K.; Tseng, K. H.; Wan, J.; Calmant, S.; Ballu, V.; Valty, P.; Kusche, J.; Hossain, F.; Khan, Z. H.; Rietbroek, R.; Uebbing, B.

2014-12-01

The potential for accelerated sea-level rise under anthropogenic warming is a significant societal problem, in particular in world's coastal deltaic regions where about half of the world's population resides. Quantifying geophysical sources of sea-level rise with the goal of improved projection at local scales remains a complex and challenging interdisciplinary research problem. These processes include ice-sheet/glacier ablations, steric sea-level, solid Earth uplift or subsidence due to GIA, tectonics, sediment loading or anthropogenic causes, hydrologic imbalance, and human processes including water retention in reservoirs and aquifer extraction. The 2013 IPCC AR5 concluded that the observed and explained geophysical causes of global geocentric sea-level rise, 1993-2010, is closer towards closure. However, the discrepancy reveals that circa 1.3→37.5% of the observed sea-level rise remains unexplained. This relatively large discrepancy is primarily attributable to the wide range of estimates of respective contributions of Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets and mountain/peripheral glaciers to sea-level rise. Understanding and quantifying the natural and anthropogenic processes governing solid Earth (land, islands and sea-floor) uplift or subsidence at the regional and local scales remain elusive to enable addressing coastal vulnerability due to relative sea-level rise hazards, such as the Bangladesh Delta. This study focuses on addressing coastal vulnerability of Bangladesh, a Belmont Forum/IGFA project, BanD-AID (http://Belmont-SeaLevel.org). Sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability, affecting 150 million people in one of the world's most densely populated regions. Here we present preliminary results using space geodetic observations, including satellite radar and laser altimetry, GRACE gravity, tide gauge, hydrographic, and GPS/InSAR observed land subsidence, and via fingerprint sea-level adjustment and reconstructed sea-level approaches, for improved quantification of major contributions to, and the projection of relative sea-level rise at the Bangladesh delta, towards addressing its coastal vulnerability and sustainability.

The Middle and Upper Eocene sections of the Omsk trough, West Siberian Platform: Palynological, stratigraphic, hydrologic, and climatic aspects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaporozhets, N. I.; Akhmetiev, M. A.

2013-01-01

The thorough analysis and correlation of Middle-Upper Eocene sections in the Omsk trough (southern West Siberian Platform) recovered by Borehole 9 in its axial part near the Chistoozernoe Settlement (Novosibirsk region) and Borehole 8 on the southern limb near the Russkaya Polyana Settlement (southern Omsk region) revealed hiatuses at the base and top of the Russkaya Polyana Beds, a lithostratigraphic unit defined in the Lyulinvor Formation based on its substantially fine-grained composition and poor siliceous microplankton fossil remains. The overlying Tavda Formation (Middle-Upper Eocene) is traditionally accepted to consist of two subformations. The last formation was deposited in the West Siberian inner sea isolated from the Arctic basin. Particular attention is paid to eustatic sea level fluctuation especially during the period marked by accumulation of Azolla Beds under considerable desalination of surface waters in the basin. The curve of variations in the open sea factor based on the quantitative ratio between organic-walled phytoplankton fossils and higher plant palynomorphs is correlated with the modified version of the wellknown Vail curve. It is established that the West Siberian sea level experienced a brief rise in the terminal late Eocene prior to its complete desiccation at the Eocene-Oligocene transition because of global regression in response to glaciation in Antarctica.

Morphology of GALÁPAGOS Platform Seamounts: a History of Emergence and Submergmence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soule, S. A.; Wanless, V. D.; Fornari, D. J.; Jones, M.; Schwartz, D. M.; Richards, M. A.

2016-12-01

The morphology of submarine volcanoes is generally well-preserved due to the lack of erosion. However, when submarine volcanoes breach the sea surface, significant erosion can occur through wave action. New bathymetric mapping of seamounts around the Galápagos Islands of Santiago, Floreana, and Isabela show evidence of such subaerial erosion despite currently residing at depths >100m. We present results from a Sept. 2015 cruise to the Galapagos platform on the M/V Alucia including ship-based bathymetric mapping, AUV-based bathymetric and sidescan sonar mapping, and observations and samples from human-occupied submersible dives. The bathymetric mapping reveals dozens of previously unknown seamounts on the relatively unexplored shallow Galápagos platform (<1000m). Among these seamounts, many display evidence of having been previously above sea level including erosional benches (insular shelves) or entirely flat tops along, heavily eroded cobbles and beach deposits, and subaerially erupted lavas at depths from 120m to >200m. Seamounts, however, can develop flat tops without having been exposed above sea level. Thus, we combine a variety of data sets to determine whether seamounts were exposed above sea level and how the morphology of those seamounts can be discriminated from seamounts that have never reached the sea surface. Included in these data sets are measurements of cosmogenic Helium that provides an independent means to confirm which seamounts were emergent. The existence of broad areas of originally-subaerial lava flows on the Galápagos platform that are now at water depths >200 m requires that in addition to ice-age-related sea level excursions, there has also been at least 100m (and perhaps more) dynamic subsidence of the platform as it has passed over the active Galapagos plume. As a result, much of the platform may have been exposed subaerially during the past several million years, with significant implications for speciation among the endemic fauna.

Does it pay to have a damper in a powered ankle prosthesis? A power-energy perspective.

PubMed

Eslamy, Mahdy; Grimmer, Martin; Rinderknecht, Stephan; Seyfarth, Andre

2013-06-01

In this paper we investigated on peak power (PP) and energy (ER) requirements for different active ankle actuation concepts that can have both elasticity and damping characteristics. A lower PP or ER requirement is an important issue because it will lead to a smaller motor or battery. In addition to spring, these actuation concepts are assumed to have (passive) damper in series (series elastic-damper actuator SEDA) or parallel (parallel elastic-damper actuator PEDA) to the motor. For SEA (series elastic actuator), SEDA and PEDA, we calculated the required minimum motor PP and ER in different human gaits: normal level walking, ascending and descending the stairs. We found that for level walking and ascending the stairs, the SEA concept, and for descending, the SEDA, were the favorable concepts to reduce required minimum PP and ER in comparison to a DD (direct drive) concept. In SEDA concept, the minimum PP could be reduced to half of what SEA would require. Nevertheless, it was found that spring was always required, however damper showed 'task specific' advantages. As a result, if a simple design perspective is in mind, from PP-ER viewpoint, SEA could be the best compromise to be used for different above-mentioned gaits. For SEDA or PEDA concepts, a controllable damper should be used. In addition, our results show that it is beneficial to select spring stiffness in SEA, based on level walking gait. The PP and ER requirements would increase very slightly for stairs ascending, and to some extent (10.5%) for descending as a consequence of this selection. In contrast, stiffness selection based on stair ascending or descending, increases the PP requirements of level walking more noticeably (17-24%).

Assessment of ocean models in Mediterranean Sea against altimetry and gravimetry measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Uebbing, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen

2017-04-01

This work aims at assessing in a regional study in the Mediterranean Sea the agreement between ocean model outputs and satellite altimetry and satellite gravity observations. Satellite sea level change are from altimeter data made available by the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative (SLCCI) and from satellite gravity data made available by GRACE. We consider two ocean simulations not assimilating satellite altimeter data and one ocean model reanalysis assimilating satellite altimetry. Ocean model simulations can provide some insight on the ocean variability, but they are affected by biases due to errors in model formulation, specification of initial states and forcing, and are not directly constrained by observations. Their trend can be quite different from the altimetric observations due to surface radiation biases, however they are physically consistent. Ocean reanalyses are the combination of ocean models, atmospheric forcing fluxes and ocean observations via data assimilation methods and have the potential to provide more accurate information than observation-only or model-only based ocean estimations. They will be closer to altimetry at long and short timescales, but assimilation may destroy mass consistency. We use two ocean simulations which are part of the Med-CORDEX initiative (https://www.medcordex.eu). The first is the CNRM-RCM4 fully-coupled Regional Climate System Model (RCMS) simulation developed at METEOFRANCE for 1980-2012. The second is the PROTHEUS standalone hindcast simulation developed at ENEA and covers the interval 1960-2012. The third model is the regional model MEDSEA_REANALYSIS_PHIS_006_004 assimilating satellite altimeter data (http://marine.copernicus.eu/) and available over 1987-2014. Comparison at basin and regional scale are made. First the steric, thermo-steric, halosteric and dynamic components output of the models are compared. Then the total sea level given by the models is compared to the altimeter observations. Finally the mass component derived from GRACE is compared to the difference between the total sea level and the steric component. We observe large differences between the ocean models and discuss the model which best agrees with the CCI sea level product at short and at longer timescales. We consider departure in sea level trends, inter-annual variability and seasonal cycle. The work is part of the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative project.

Erosion and deposition on a beach raised by the 1964 earthquake, Montague Island, Alaska: Chapter H in The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: regional effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirkby, M.J.; Kirkby, Anne V.

1969-01-01

During the 1964 Alaska earthquake, tectonic deformation uplifted the southern end of Montague Island as much as 33 feet or more. The uplifted shoreline is rapidly being modified by subaerial and marine processes. The new raised beach is formed in bedrock, sand, gravel, and deltaic bay-head deposits, and the effect of each erosional process was measured in each material. Fieldwork was concentrated in two areas—MacLeod Harbor on the northwest side and Patton Bay on the southeast side of Montague Island. In the unconsolidated deltaic deposits of MacLeod Harbor, 97 percent of the erosion up to June 1965, 15 months after the earthquake, was fluvial, 2.2 percent was by rainwash, and only 0.8 percent was marine; 52 percent of the total available raised beach material had already been removed. The volume removed by stream erosion was proportional to low-flow discharge raised to the power of 0.75 to 0.95, and this volume increased as the bed material became finer. Stream response to the relative fall in base level was very rapid, most of the downcutting in unconsolidated materials occurring within 48 hours of the uplift for streams with low flows greater than 10 cubic feet per second. Since then, erosion by these streams has been predominantly lateral. Streams with lower discharges, in unconsolidated materials, still had knickpoints after 15 months. No response to uplift could be detected in stream courses above the former preearthquake sea level. Where the raised beach is in bedrock, it is being destroyed principally by marine action but at such a low rate that no appreciable erosion of bedrock was found 15 months after the earthquake. A dated rock platform raised earlier has eroded at a mean rate of 0.49 foot per year. In this area the factor limiting the rate of erosion was rock resistance rather than the transporting capacity of the waves. The break in slope between the top of the raised beach and the former seacliff is being obliterated by debris which is accumulating at the base of the cliffs and which is no longer being removed by the sea. Current cliff retreat by rockfall, mudflows, and landslides was estimated at 0.7 to 2.0 feet per year, and in parts of Patton Bay the accumulation of debris has obliterated 78 percent of the original break in slope in 15 months. Evidence of two relative sea-level changes before 1964 was found in Patton Bay. At a high stand of sea level lasting until about 2000 B.P. (before present), an older raised beach was formed which, over a distance of 5 miles, shows 40 feet of deformation relative to the present sea level. Peat deposits exposed by the 1964 uplift also record a low sea level that lasted until at least 600 B.P. The 1964 raised beach was used to test the accuracy of identification of former sea-level elevations from raised beach features. The Pre-1964 sea level could be accurately determined from the height of the former barnacle line, so an independent check on high-water level was available. The most reliable topographic indicator was the elevation of the break in slope at the top of a beach between a bedrock platform and a cliff. Even here, the former sea level could only be identified within 5 feet. The breaks in slope at the top of gravel beaches were found to be poor indicators of former sea level. On Montague Island, evidence of former high sea levels appeared to be best preserved (1) as raised bedrock platforms on rocks of moderate resistance in slightly sheltered locations and (2) as raised storm beaches where the relief immediately inland was very low.

Benthic foraminifera as indicators of pollution in high latitude marine environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dijkstra, N.; Junttila, J.; Husum, K.; Carroll, J.; Klitgaard-Kristensen, D.; Hald, M.

2012-04-01

An increasing number of studies demonstrate the potential of benthic foraminifera to characterize ecological status. However, the use of benthic foraminifera as bio-indicators has previously not been tested in high latitudes. This research contributes to the development of foraminifera as a bio-monitoring technique for the Arctic region, as industrial activities in this region will increase in the coming years. Surface sediments (0-1 cm) from sites close to gas fields in the SW Barents Sea were studied. In addition, to elucidate the range from less to very affected, surface sediments from the harbor of the town of Hammerfest (70° N) were studied. At least 300 living benthic foraminifera from the size fraction 100 µm-1 mm were counted and identified at species level. Pollution levels (heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants) and sediment properties (grainsize and TOC) were also analyzed. Pollution levels at the sea floor in the SW Barents Sea are of background to good level (level I-II) according to the definitions by the Water Framework Directorate (WFD). Benthic foraminiferal assemblages are influenced by natural environmental parameters such as water mass properties, water depth, nutrient availability, bottom current strength, and grain size. Surface sediments from the Hammerfest harbor are of moderate environmental status (WFD level II-III) based on heavy metal concentrations and of bad environmental status (WFD IV-V) based on persistent organic pollutant concentrations. Opportunistic benthic foraminifera are dominating the assemblages. The most polluted areas in the harbor are barren for foraminifera or have high amounts of deformed shells. In both environments the foraminiferal diversity of the samples, does not correspond to expected environmental status based on the pollution levels of the sediments. Environmental status classes, based on benthic foraminifera instead of macrofauna, would allow rapid analyses of the environmental impact of pollution.

Groundwater management based on monitoring of land subsidence and groundwater levels in the Kanto Groundwater Basin, Central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furuno, K.; Kagawa, A.; Kazaoka, O.; Kusuda, T.; Nirei, H.

2015-11-01

Over 40 million people live on and exploit the groundwater resources of the Kanto Plain. The Plain encompasses metropolitan Tokyo and much of Chiba Prefecture. Useable groundwater extends to the base of the Kanto Plain, some 2500 to 3000 m below sea level. Much of the Kanto Plain surface is at sea level. By the early 1970s, with increasing urbanization and industrial expansion, local overdraft of groundwater resources caused major ground subsidence and damage to commercial and residential structures as well as to local and regional infrastructure. Parts of the lowlands around Tokyo subsided to 4.0 m below sea level; particularly affected were the suburbs of Funabashi and Gyotoku in western Chiba. In the southern Kanto Plain, regulations, mainly by local government and later by regional agencies, led to installation of about 500 monitoring wells and almost 5000 bench marks by the 1990's. Many of them are still working with new monitoring system. Long-term monitoring is important. The monitoring systems are costly, but the resulting data provide continuous measurement of the "health" of the Kanto Groundwater Basin, and thus permit sustainable use of the groundwater resource.

Sea level estimate from multi-frequency signal-to-noise ratio data collected by a single geodetic receiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roussel, Nicolas; Frappart, Frédéric; Ramillien, Guillaume; Darrozes, José; Cornu, Gwendolyne; Koummarasy, Khanithalath

2016-04-01

GNSS-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) altimetry has demonstrated a strong potential for sea level monitoring. Interference Pattern Technique (IPT) based on the analysis of the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) estimated by a GNSS receiver, presents the main advantage of being applicable everywhere by using a single geodetic antenna and receiver, transforming them to real tide gauges. Such a technique has already been tested in various configurations of acquisition of surface-reflected GNSS signals with an accuracy of a few centimeters. Nevertheless, the classical SNR analysis method for estimating the reflecting surface-antenna height is limited by an approximation: the vertical velocity of the reflecting surface must be negligible. Authors present a significant improvement of the SNR technique to solve this problem and broaden the scope of SNR-based tide monitoring. The performances achieved on the different GNSS frequency band (L1, L2 and L5) are analyzed. The method is based on a Least-Mean Square Resolution Method (LSM), combining simultaneous measurements from different GNSS constellations (GPS, GLONASS), which permits to take the dynamic of the surface into account. It was validated in situ [1], with an antenna placed at 60 meters above the Atlantic Ocean surface with variations reaching ±3 meters, and amplitude rate of the semi-diurnal tide up to 0.5 mm/s. Over the three months of SNR records on L1 frequency band for sea level determination, we found linear correlations of 0.94 by comparing with a classical tide gauge record. Our SNR-based time series was also compared to a tide theoretical model and amplitudes and phases of the main astronomical periods (6-, 12- and 24-h) were perfectly well detected. Waves and swell are also likely to be detected. If the validity of our method is already well-established with L1 band [1], the aim of our current study is to analyze the results obtained with the other GNSS frequency band: L2 and L5. L1 band seems to provide the best sea level estimation, but the combination of SNR data from each frequency increases the number of observables and thus the quality of the final estimation. [1] N. Roussel, G. Ramillien, F. Frappart, J. Darrozes, A. Gay, R. Biancale, N. Striebig, V. Hanquiez, X. Bertin, D. Allain : "Sea level monitoring and sea state estimate using a single geodetic receiver", Remote Sensing of Environment 171 (2015) 261-277.

SeaWIFS Postlaunch Technical Report Series. Volume 13; The SeaWiFS Photometer Revision for Incident Surface Measurement (SeaPRISM) Field Commissioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hooker, Stanford B. (Editor); Zibordi, Giuseppe; Berthon, Jean-Francois; Bailey, Sean W.; Pietras, Christophe M.; Firestone, Elaine R. (Editor)

2000-01-01

This report documents the scientific activities that took place at the Acqua Alta Oceanographic Tower (AAOT) in the northern Adriatic Sea off the coast of Italy from 2-6 August 1999. The ultimate objective of the field campaign was to evaluate the capabilities of a new instrument called the SeaWiFS Photometer Revision for Incident Surface Measurements (SeaPRISM). SeaPRISM is based on a CE-318 sun photometer made by CIMEL Electronique (Paris, France). The CE-318 is an automated, robotic system which measures the direct sun irradiance plus the sky radiance in the sun plane and in the almucantar plane. The data are transmitted over a satellite link, and this remote operation capability has made the device very useful for atmospheric measurements. The revision to the CE-318 that makes the instrument potentially useful for SeaWiFS calibration and validation activities is to include a capability for measuring the radiance leaving the sea surface in wavelengths suitable for the determination of chlorophyll a concentration. The initial evaluation of this new capability involved above- and in-water measurement protocols. An intercomparison of the water-leaving radiances derived from SeaPRISM and an in-water system showed the overall spectral agreement was approximately 8.6%, but the blue-green channels intercompared at the 5% level. A blue-green band ratio comparison was at the 4% level.

Sea-level change during the last 2500 years in New Jersey, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kemp, Andrew C.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Vane, Christopher H.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Corbett, D. Reide; Engelhart, Simon E.; Anisfeld, Shimon C.; Parnell, Andrew C.; Cahill, Niamh

2013-01-01

Relative sea-level changes during the last ∼2500 years in New Jersey, USA were reconstructed to test if late Holocene sea level was stable or included persistent and distinctive phases of variability. Foraminifera and bulk-sediment δ13C values were combined to reconstruct paleomarsh elevation with decimeter precision from sequences of salt-marsh sediment at two sites using a multi-proxy approach. The additional paleoenvironmental information provided by bulk-sediment δ13C values reduced vertical uncertainty in the sea-level reconstruction by about one third of that estimated from foraminifera alone using a transfer function. The history of sediment deposition was constrained by a composite chronology. An age–depth model developed for each core enabled reconstruction of sea level with multi-decadal resolution. Following correction for land-level change (1.4 mm/yr), four successive and sustained (multi-centennial) sea-level trends were objectively identified and quantified (95% confidence interval) using error-in-variables change point analysis to account for age and sea-level uncertainties. From at least 500 BC to 250 AD, sea-level fell at 0.11 mm/yr. The second period saw sea-level rise at 0.62 mm/yr from 250 AD to 733 AD. Between 733 AD and 1850 AD, sea level fell at 0.12 mm/yr. The reconstructed rate of sea-level rise since ∼1850 AD was 3.1 mm/yr and represents the most rapid period of change for at least 2500 years. This trend began between 1830 AD and 1873 AD. Since this change point, reconstructed sea-level rise is in agreement with regional tide-gauge records and exceeds the global average estimate for the 20th century. These positive and negative departures from background rates demonstrate that the late Holocene sea level was not stable in New Jersey.

Validation of the Lanzarote Tide Gauges system designed at the Royal Observatory of Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruymbeke, Michel; Dumont, Philippe; Seknik, Matej

2017-04-01

A series of tide gauges was set-up in a very favorable site located inside a lava tube plunging in the Atlantic ocean. The damping of waves motion is dramaticaly large, allowing to observe very tight modulations of the sea level. The gauges are based on the EDAS interface connected to a capacitor variying with the level of the sea . Filtering is gained by counting of frequency modulated signal during a one minute interval The scale factor is defined by comparizon of the output signals of sensors and reading the water level at different time. We evaluate the performance of our design by analysing the long series of records at disposal. The analysis is based on a stacking approach to extract components for periodicities existing in the spectrum of sea tides . Concordance of the results between the three gauges recording simultaneously the same signal confirms applicability of our design in such environment. After de-tiding application, the residuals signals are correlated to various physical parameters which could contribute to the understanding of the involved geophysical process.

Paleocene-Eocene and Plio-Pleistocene sea-level changes as "species pumps" in Southeast Asia: Evidence from Althepus spiders.

PubMed

Li, Fengyuan; Li, Shuqiang

2018-05-17

Sea-level change has been viewed as a primary driver in the formation of biodiversity. Early studies confirmed that Plio-Pleistocene sea-level changes led to the isolation and subsequent genetic differentiation of Southeast (SE) Asian organisms over short geological timescales. However, long-time consequences of sea-level fluctuations remain unclear. Herein, we analyze the evolutionary history of Althepus (spiders) whose distribution encompasses Indo-Burma and the Sunda shelf islands to understand how sea-level changes over shallow and deep timescales effected their history. Our integrative analyses, including phylogeny, divergence times, ancestral area reconstruction and diversification dynamics, reveal an intricate pattern of diversification, probably triggered by sea-level fluctuations during the Paleocene-Eocene and Plio-Pleistocene. The timing of one early divergence between the Indo-Burmese and Sundaic species coincides with late Paleocene and early Eocene high global sea levels, which induced the formation of inland seaways in the Thai-Malay Peninsula. Subsequent lowered sea levels could have provided a land bridge for its dispersal colonization across the Isthmus of Kra. Analyses suggest that Plio-Pleistocene sea-level rises contributed to recent divergence of many species. Thus, our findings cannot reject the hypothesis that sea-level changes during the Paleocene-Eocene and Plio-Pleistocene played a major role in generating biodiversity in SE Asia; sea-level changes can act as "species pumps". Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Responses of eastern Chinese coastal salt marshes to sea-level rise combined with vegetative and sedimentary processes.

PubMed

Ge, Zhen-Ming; Wang, Heng; Cao, Hao-Bin; Zhao, Bin; Zhou, Xiao; Peltola, Heli; Cui, Li-Fang; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Zhang, Li-Quan

2016-06-23

The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems have attracted worldwide attention in relation to global change. In this study, the salt marsh model for the Yangtze Estuary (SMM-YE, developed in China) and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM, developed in the U.S.) were used to simulate the effects of SLR on the coastal salt marshes in eastern China. The changes in the dominant species in the plant community were also considered. Predictions based on the SLAMM indicated a trend of habitat degradation up to 2100; total salt marsh habitat area continued to decline (4-16%) based on the low-level scenario, with greater losses (6-25%) predicted under the high-level scenario. The SMM-YE showed that the salt marshes could be resilient to threats of SLR through the processes of accretion of mudflats, vegetation expansion and sediment trapping by plants. This model predicted that salt marsh areas increased (3-6%) under the low-level scenario. The decrease in the total habitat area with the SMM-YE under the high-level scenario was much lower than the SLAMM prediction. Nevertheless, SLR might negatively affect the salt marsh species that are not adapted to prolonged inundation. An adaptive strategy for responding to changes in sediment resources is necessary in the Yangtze Estuary.

Responses of eastern Chinese coastal salt marshes to sea-level rise combined with vegetative and sedimentary processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Zhen-Ming; Wang, Heng; Cao, Hao-Bin; Zhao, Bin; Zhou, Xiao; Peltola, Heli; Cui, Li-Fang; Li, Xiu-Zhen; Zhang, Li-Quan

2016-06-01

The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems have attracted worldwide attention in relation to global change. In this study, the salt marsh model for the Yangtze Estuary (SMM-YE, developed in China) and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM, developed in the U.S.) were used to simulate the effects of SLR on the coastal salt marshes in eastern China. The changes in the dominant species in the plant community were also considered. Predictions based on the SLAMM indicated a trend of habitat degradation up to 2100; total salt marsh habitat area continued to decline (4-16%) based on the low-level scenario, with greater losses (6-25%) predicted under the high-level scenario. The SMM-YE showed that the salt marshes could be resilient to threats of SLR through the processes of accretion of mudflats, vegetation expansion and sediment trapping by plants. This model predicted that salt marsh areas increased (3-6%) under the low-level scenario. The decrease in the total habitat area with the SMM-YE under the high-level scenario was much lower than the SLAMM prediction. Nevertheless, SLR might negatively affect the salt marsh species that are not adapted to prolonged inundation. An adaptive strategy for responding to changes in sediment resources is necessary in the Yangtze Estuary.

Potentiometric surface and water-level difference maps of selected confined aquifers in Southern Maryland and Maryland’s Eastern Shore, 1975-2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curtin, Stephen E.; Staley, Andrew W.; Andreasen, David C.

2016-01-01

Key Results This report presents potentiometric-surface maps of the Aquia and Magothy aquifers and the Upper Patapsco, Lower Patapsco, and Patuxent aquifer systems using water levels measured during September 2015. Water-level difference maps are also presented for these aquifers. The water-level differences in the Aquia aquifer are shown using groundwater-level data from 1982 and 2015, while the water-level differences are shown for the Magothy aquifer using data from 1975 and 2015. Water-level difference maps for both the Upper Patapsco and Lower Patapsco aquifer systems are shown using data from 1990 and 2015. The water-level differences in the Patuxent aquifer system are shown using groundwater-level data from 2007 and 2015. The potentiometric surface maps show water levels ranging from 53 feet above sea level to 164 feet below sea level in the Aquia aquifer, from 86 feet above sea level to 106 feet below sea level in the Magothy aquifer, from 115 feet above sea level to 115 feet below sea level in the Upper Patapsco aquifer system, from 106 feet above sea level to 194 feet below sea level in the Lower Patapsco aquifer system, and from 165 feet above sea level to 171 feet below sea level in the Patuxent aquifer system. Water levels have declined by as much as 116 feet in the Aquia aquifer since 1982, 99 feet in the Magothy aquifer since 1975, 66 and 83 feet in the Upper Patapsco and Lower Patapsco aquifer systems, respectively, since 1990, and 80 feet in the Patuxent aquifer system since 2007.

The coastal oasis: ice age springs on emerged continental shelves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faure, Hugues; Walter, Robert C.; Grant, Douglas R.

2002-06-01

As ice caps expanded during each of the last five glaciations, sea level fell at least 120 m below current levels, exposing continental shelves worldwide to create vast areas of new land. As a result of this exposure, the ecology, climate, pedology, and geology of global shorelines were dramatically transformed, which in turn altered the carbon cycle and biodynamics of this new landmass. In this paper, we focus on a little-known hydrogeological phenomenon that may have had profound influences on biodiversity, human evolution, and carbon storage during periods of severe climatic stress of the Pleistocene Ice Ages. We propose that freshwater springs appeared on emerged continental shelves because falling sea level not only drew down and steepened the coastal water table gradient, thus increasing the hydrostatic head on inland groundwater aquifers, but also removed up to 120 m of hydrostatic pressure on the shelf, further enhancing groundwater flow. We call this phenomenon the "coastal oasis", a model based on three well-established facts. (1) In all coastal areas of the world, continental aquifers discharge a continuous flow of fresh water to the oceans. (2) Many submarine sedimentary and morphological features, as well as seepages and flow of fresh water, are known on and below the shelves from petroleum explorations, deep-sea drilling programs, and mariners' observations. (3) Hydraulic principles (Darcy's law) predict increased groundwater flow at the coast when sea level drops because the piezometric head increases by the equivalent depth of sea-level lowering. Sea level is presently in a relatively high interglacial position. Direct observation and verification of our model is difficult and must rely on explorations of terrain that are now deeply submerged on continental shelves. For this reason, we draw parallels between our predicted model and simple, well-exposed terrestrial hydrological systems, such as present-day springs that appear on the exposed shores of lakes whose free-air water levels fell during periods of aridity. Such modern examples are seen in the Caspian Sea and Dead Sea, the Afar Depression, and the Sahara Desert. These modern analogues demonstrate the likelihood that underground water will be more abundant on emerged shelves during sea-level fall, causing springs, oases, and wetlands to appear. Our model creates an apparent paradox: in tropical and subtropical arid lands, such as most of Africa, sea-level fall during hyperarid glacial phases would produce abundant fresh water flow onto emerged continental shelves as the continental interior desiccated. Thus, emergent shoreline springs provided new habitats for terrestrial vegetation and animals displaced from the interior by increasingly arid conditions, shrinking ecosystems, and dwindling water supplies. Such a scenario would have had a profound influence on the vegetation that spreads naturally to colonize the emerged shelves during glacio-eustatic sea-level lowstands, as well as creating new habitats for terrestrial mammals, including early humans.

A pulse in the delivery of ice-rafted debris at site 704 in the southeast Atlantic during glacial Termination V

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanfoush, Sharon L.

2016-03-01

Termination V, the transition from glacial marine isotope stage 12 to interglacial stage 11-425 ka, is the largest deglaciation of the late Pleistocene and culminated with temperatures potentially warmer than present. Coastal geomorphic and stratigraphic evidence provides estimates of a sea-level high-stand 20 m above present at the time (Hearty et al. in Geology 27(4):375-378, 1999). Such sea-level rise would require disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet and West Antarctic Ice Sheet as well as part of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (Raynaud et al. in Earth's climate and orbital eccentricity: the marine isotope stage 11 question. Geophysical monograph 137. American Geophysical Union, Washington, 2003). Lithic fragments in deep-sea sediments >150 μm at Site 704 in the South Atlantic Ocean were quantified. A large multipronged peak in concentration of this ice-rafted debris consisting of clear minerals, rose-colored transparent minerals, and ash punctuates glacial Termination V. It coincides with a brief two-pronged 1 ‰ reversal to heavier isotopic values from ~2.4 to ~3.4 ‰ at ~416 ka interpreted to reflect cooling resulting from influx of a large number of icebergs. The peak in ice-rafted debris also coincides with a 1 ‰ decrease in carbon isotopic ratios interrupting the ~2 ‰ increase in carbon isotope values across the entirety of Termination V. This is interpreted to reflect a reduction or shutdown in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and attendant Circumpolar Deep Water upwelling at the site and is also consistent with a shift in storage of carbon and carbonate from the deep sea to continental shelves resulting from a dramatic sea-level high-stand. Consequently, the lithic record at Site 704 lends support for the upper end of sea-level estimates based upon land-based evidence that requires a substantial contribution from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, caution is warranted as differences with lithic records from Site 1089, 1090 and 1094 suggest sea-surface temperatures may have also affected lithic concentration through controls on iceberg trajectories and decay.

Monitoring and Management of Coastal Zones Which are Under Flooding Risk with Remote Sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Direk, S.; Seker, D. Z.; Musaoglu, N.; Gazioglu, C.

2012-12-01

Coastal zone areas play an important role in value to the welfare of nations and provides natural, social, cultural and economic benefits and increased quality of life. A great majority of the earth population live in coastal zone areas and they are under flooding risk due to tsunamies, storm surge, typhoon, sea level rise, precipitation and dam destruction. Global warming from the grenhouse effect raises sea level by expanding seawater, melting water and causing ice sheets to melt. Based on a selection of nine long, high quality tide gauge records, Holgate analyzed that the Mean Sea Level (MSL) rise over the period of 1904-2003 was found to be 1.74 ± 0.16 mm/year. Consider the whole century showed that the high decadal rates of change in global MSL was observed during the last 20 years of the records. Based on 4 tide gauge records in Marmara Sea, Aegean Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, Yildiz analyzed that MSL rise during 1984-2002 was found to be 9.6 ± 0.9 mm/year, 5.1 ± 1 mm/year and 8.7 ± 0.8 mm/year respectively. By analyzing the whole recorded data, it is found that the annual MSL rise in eastern mediterranean was 4-7 mm/year which was higher than the global prediction. A rise in sea level would accelerate coastal erosion, aggravate flooding, threaten coastal area structures and inundate wetlands. The salinity of rivers and bays would increase. A 1 meter in sea level rise would enable a 15-20 year storm to flood many areas. Higher water levels would reduce coastal drainage which would cause an increase flooding by rain storms. Finally, a rise in sea level would raise water tables and would flood basements. Geographic Information System (GIS) is a state of art technology and operationally being used more frequently by commercial and scientific society. GIS system provides a stable platform for the integration of data from different sources, allows a large quantity of data to be stored and processed, provides a seamless geographical database and provides a great flexibility for the display and visualization of data to a wider audience. Today GIS, plays a key role in monitoring and management procedures and re-shaping the environment. The capability of GIS in handling spatial data, presented new opportunities for adaptation of more cost-effective and efficient procedures. By using remote sensing and GIS, coastal zone could be monitored and managed more easily. The map/chart of interested coastal areas could be done more accurately and rapidly. Maps/charts of areas before and after flooding could be done by using satellites or areal images and the effect of damage could be analyzed in a short time.

Sea-Level Projections from the SeaRISE Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert

2011-01-01

SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) is a community organized modeling effort, whose goal is to inform the fifth IPCC of the potential sea-level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in the 21st and 22nd century. SeaRISE seeks to determine the most likely ice sheet response to imposed climatic forcing by initializing an ensemble of models with common datasets and applying the same forcing to each model. Sensitivity experiments were designed to quantify the sea-level rise associated with a change in: 1) surface mass balance, 2) basal lubrication, and 3) ocean induced basal melt. The range of responses, resulting from the multi-model approach, is interpreted as a proxy of uncertainty in our sea-level projections. http://websrv.cs .umt.edu/isis/index.php/SeaRISE_Assessment.

Steric and mass-induced Mediterranean sea level trends from 14 years of altimetry data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Criado-Aldeanueva, Francisco; Del Río Vera, Jorge; García-Lafuente, Jesús

2008-02-01

Long-term series of almost 14 years of altimetry data (1992-2005) have been analysed along with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles to investigate sea level trends over the Mediterranean Sea. Although sea level variations are mainly driven by the steric contribution, the mass-induced component plays some role in modulating its oscillation. A spatially averaged positive trend of 2.1 ± 0.6 mm/year has been observed, but a change in sign in 2001 seems to appear. Steric effects (mainly on thermal origin) account for ˜ 55% of sea level trend. Although Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed basin, this value is comparable to that reported for the global ocean. Sea level rise is particularly important in the Levantine basin south of Crete with values up to 10 ± 1 mm/year. Other areas of sea level rise are localised throughout the Levantine basin and in the Adriatic and Alboran Seas, with more moderate values. Sea level drop areas are localised in the Algerian basin, between the Balearic Islands and the African coasts and, particularly, in the Ionian basin. In this area, negative trends as high as - 10 ± 0.8 mm/year are detected mainly due to the mass-induced contribution, which suggests decadal changes of surface circulation. The inferred sea level trends have been correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and a low but significant correlation has been detected between sea level in the Levantine and Balearic basins and NAO index.

On the sea-state bias of the Geosat altimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.; Koblinsky, Chester J.

1991-01-01

The sea-state bias in a satellite altimeter's range measurement is caused by the influence of ocean waves on the radar return pulse; it results in an estimate of sea level that is too low according to some function of the wave height. This bias is here estimated for Geosat by correlating collinear differences of altimetric sea-surface heights with collinear differences of significant wave heights (H1/3). Corrections for satellite orbit error are estimated simultaneously with the sea-state bias. Based on twenty 17-day repeat cycles of the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission, the solution for the sea-state bias is 2.6 + or - 0.2 percent of H1/3. The least-squares residuals, however, show a correlation with wind speed U, so the traditional model of the bias has been supplemented with a second term: H1/3 + alpha-2H1/3U. This second term produces a small, but statistically significant, reduction in variance of the residuals. Both systematic and random errors in H1/3 and U tend to bias the estimates of alpha-1 and alpha-2, which complicates comparisons of the results with ground-based measurements of the sea-state bias.

On the sea-state bias of the Geosat altimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, Richard D.; Koblinsky, Chester J.

1991-06-01

The sea-state bias in a satellite altimeter's range measurement is caused by the influence of ocean waves on the radar return pulse; it results in an estimate of sea level that is too low according to some function of the wave height. This bias is here estimated for Geosat by correlating collinear differences of altimetric sea-surface heights with collinear differences of significant wave heights (H1/3). Corrections for satellite orbit error are estimated simultaneously with the sea-state bias. Based on twenty 17-day repeat cycles of the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission, the solution for the sea-state bias is 2.6 + or - 0.2 percent of H1/3. The least-squares residuals, however, show a correlation with wind speed U, so the traditional model of the bias has been supplemented with a second term: H1/3 + alpha-2H1/3U. This second term produces a small, but statistically significant, reduction in variance of the residuals. Both systematic and random errors in H1/3 and U tend to bias the estimates of alpha-1 and alpha-2, which complicates comparisons of the results with ground-based measurements of the sea-state bias.

Influence of sea ice on Arctic coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, K. R.; Kay, J. E.; Overeem, I.; Anderson, R. S.

2017-12-01

Coasts form the dynamic interface between the terrestrial and oceanic systems. In the Arctic, and in much of the world, the coast is a focal point for population, infrastructure, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. A key difference between Arctic and temperate coasts is the presence of sea ice. Changes in sea ice cover can influence the coast because (1) the length of the sea ice-free season controls the time over which nearshore water can interact with the land, and (2) the location of the sea ice edge controls the fetch over which storm winds can interact with open ocean water, which in turn governs nearshore water level and wave field. We first focus on the interaction of sea ice and ice-rich coasts. We combine satellite records of sea ice with a model for wind-driven storm surge and waves to estimate how changes in the sea ice-free season have impacted the nearshore hydrodynamic environment along Alaska's Beaufort Sea Coast for the period 1979-2012. This region has experienced some of the greatest changes in both sea ice cover and coastal erosion rates in the Arctic: the median length of the open-water season has expanded by 90 percent, while coastal erosion rates have more than doubled from 8.7 to 19 m yr-1. At Drew Point, NW winds increase shoreline water levels that control the incision of a submarine notch, the rate-limiting step of coastal retreat. The maximum water-level setup at Drew Point has increased consistently with increasing fetch. We extend our analysis to the entire Arctic using both satellite-based observations and global coupled climate model output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. This 30-member ensemble employs a 1-degree version of the CESM-CAM5 historical forcing for the period 1920-2005, and RCP 8.5 forcing from 2005-2100. A control model run with constant pre-industrial (1850) forcing characterizes internal variability in a constant climate. Finally, we compare observations and model results to identify locations of both observed and expected rapid sea ice change. Based on satellite observations, the median length of the 2012 open-water season expanded by between 1.5 and 3-fold relative to 1979 over the Arctic Sea region. This results in open water during the stormy Arctic fall, with implications for not only coastal processes but for amplification of warming on land.

Sea-level responses to sediment transport over the last ice age cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrier, K.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2013-12-01

Sea-level changes over the last ice age cycle were instrumental in steering Earth's topographic evolution. These sea-level variations were driven by changes in surface mass loads, including not only ice and ocean mass variations but also the transfer of rock from eroding mountains to sedimentary deposits. Here we use an extended numerical model of ice age sea level (Dalca et al., 2013) to explore how sediment erosion and deposition affected global sea-level variations over the last ice age cycle. The model takes histories of ice and sediment loads as inputs, and it computes gravitationally self-consistent sea level responses by accounting for the deformational, gravitational, and rotational perturbations in the Earth's viscoelastic form. In these model simulations, we use published estimates of erosion rates, sedimentation rates, and ice sheet variations to constrain sediment and ice loading since the Last Interglacial. We explore sea-level responses to several erosional and depositional scenarios, and in each we quantify the relative contributions of crustal deformation and gravitational perturbation to the computed sea-level change. We also present a case study to illustrate the effects that sediment transfer can have on sea level at the regional scale. In particular, we focus on the region surrounding the Indus River, where fluvial sediment fluxes are among the highest on Earth. Preliminary model results suggest that sediment fluxes from Asia to the ocean are large enough to produce a significant response in sea level along the northeastern coast of the Arabian Sea. Moreover, they suggest that modeled sea-level histories are sensitive to the timing and spatial distribution of sediment erosion and deposition. For instance, sediment deposition along the continental shelf - which may have been the primary site of Indus River sediment deposition during the Holocene - produces a different sea-level response than sediment deposition on the deep-sea Indus Fan, where most of the Indus sediment may have been deposited during the glacial period preceding the Holocene. These simulations highlight the role that massive continent-to-ocean sediment fluxes can play in driving sea-level patterns over thousands of years. References: Dalca A.V., Ferrier K.L., Mitrovica J.X., Perron J.T., Milne G.A., Creveling J.R., 2013. On postglacial sea level - III: Incorporating sediment redistribution. Geophys. J. Int., doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt089.

A Reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature Gradients and an Assessment of the Suspected Presence of Continental Ice During the Cold Mid-Paleocene (61-57 Ma)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bijl, P.; Cramwinckel, M.; Frieling, J.; Peterse, F.

2016-12-01

The early Eocene `hothouse' climate experienced paratropical vegetation on high latitudes and high (>1100 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. It is generally considered as analogous to the endmember climate state should we use up all available fossil fuels. However, we do not know exactly through which processes this long-term warm episode came to be nor do we understand what the initial climate state was at the onset of this long-term climate. Deep-sea warming towards early Eocene hothouse conditions started in the mid-Paleocene, ending a 2 Myr time interval of relatively cold deep ocean temperatures. Reconstructed pCO2 concentrations of the mid-Paleocene seem to have been close to those of present-day, although data is scarce. The mid-Paleocene is notoriously sparsely represented in shelf sedimentary records, as most records show a conspicuous hiatus between 58 and 60 Mys. This gives the suggestion of a major global low in sea level, which is inconsistent with estimates of global ocean spreading rates, which suggest a relatively high sea level on long time scales for the Cretaceous-early Paleogene. The cold deep-sea temperatures, the conspicuously low sea level and low atmospheric CO2 during the mid-Paleocene have stimulated suggestions of the presence of major ice sheets on the poles, yet the absence of any trace for continental ice, either direct ice-proximal evidence or from benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records, calls the presence of such ice sheets into question. I will present a number of high resolution sea surface temperature records (based mostly on organic geochemical biomarker proxies) which start to reveal a latitudinal temperature gradient for the mid-Paleocene. Reconstructions come from shelf sediments from Tasmania, Australia, Tanzania, Tropical Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey). With these new records, I put Paleogene climate evolution into context. I will further present a review of shelf sedimentary records across the mid-paleocene to assess the sea level variability in this time, to verifiy the suspected presence of continental ice, and speculate on possible alternative mechanisms for sea level change.

Consequences of sea level variability and sea level rise for Cuban territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, M.; Martínez, C. A.; Marzo, O.

2015-03-01

The objective of the present paper was to determine a first approximation of coastal zone flooding by 2100, taking into account the more persistent processes of sea level variability and non-accelerated linear sea level rise estimation to assess the main impacts. The annual linear rate of mean sea level rise in the Cuban archipelago, obtained from the longest tide gauge records, has fluctuated between 0.005 cm/year at Casilda and 0.214 cm/year at Siboney. The main sea level rise effects for the Cuban coastal zone due to climate change and global warming are shown. Monthly and annual mean sea level anomalies, some of which are similar to or higher than the mean sea level rise estimated for halfway through the present century, reinforce the inland seawater penetration due to the semi-daily high tide. The combination of these different events will result in the loss of goods and services, and require expensive investments for adaption.

Indo-Pacific sea level variability during recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamanaka, G.; Tsujino, H.; Nakano, H.; Urakawa, S. L.; Sakamoto, K.

2016-12-01

Decadal variability of sea level in the Indo-Pacific region is investigated using a historical OGCM simulation. The OGCM driven by the atmospheric forcing removing long-term trends clearly exhibits decadal sea level variability in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with eastern tropical Pacific thermal anomalies. During the period of 1977-1987, the sea level anomalies are positive in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show deviations from a north-south symmetric distribution, with strongly negative anomalies in the western tropical South Pacific. During the period of 1996-2006, in contrast, the sea level anomalies are negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show a nearly north-south symmetric pattern, with positive anomalies in both hemispheres. Concurrently, sea level anomalies in the south-eastern Indian Ocean vary with those in the western tropical Pacific. These sea level variations are closely related to large-scale wind fields. Indo-Pacific sea level distributions are basically determined by wind anomalies over the equatorial region as well as wind stress curl anomalies over the off-equatorial region.

Assessing coastal flood risk and sea level rise impacts at New York City area airports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohman, K. A.; Kimball, N.; Osler, M.; Eberbach, S.

2014-12-01

Flood risk and sea level rise impacts were assessed for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) at four airports in the New York City area. These airports included John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, Newark International, and Teterboro Airports. Quantifying both present day and future flood risk due to climate change and developing flood mitigation alternatives is crucial for the continued operation of these airports. During Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 all four airports were forced to shut down, in part due to coastal flooding. Future climate change and sea level rise effects may result in more frequent shutdowns and disruptions in travel to and from these busy airports. The study examined the effects of the 1%-annual-chance coastal flooding event for present day existing conditions and six different sea level rise scenarios at each airport. Storm surge model outputs from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provided the present day storm surge conditions. 50th and 90thpercentile sea level rise projections from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2013 report were incorporated into storm surge results using linear superposition methods. These projections were evaluated for future years 2025, 2035, and 2055. In addition to the linear superposition approach for storm surge at airports where waves are a potential hazard, one dimensional wave modeling was performed to get the total water level results. Flood hazard and flood depth maps were created based on these results. In addition to assessing overall flooding at each airport, major at-risk infrastructure critical to the continued operation of the airport was identified and a detailed flood vulnerability assessment was performed. This assessment quantified flood impacts in terms of potential critical infrastructure inundation and developed mitigation alternatives to adapt to coastal flooding and future sea level changes. Results from this project are advancing the PANYNJ's understanding of the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding at the airports and guiding decision-making in the selection of effective adaptation actions. Given the importance of these airports to transportation, this project is advancing security and continuity of national and international commerce well into the 21st century.

Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

SERDP NOAA USACE Ocean MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE COASTAL SITES...WORLDWIDE APRIL 2016 REGIONAL SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS FOR COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: COVER PHOTOS, FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: - Overwash of the island of Roi-Namur on...J.A., S. Gill, J. Obeysekera, W. Sweet, K. Knuuti, and J. Marburger. 2016. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the

Size stratification in a Gilbert delta due to a varying base level: flume experiments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavarrias, Victor; Orru, Clara; Viparelli, Enrica; Vide, Juan Pedro Martin; Blom, Astrid

2014-05-01

A foreset-dominated Gilbert delta is a delta that is dominated by sediment avalanches (i.e., discontinuous grain flows) over its front. It forms when a river flows into a basin or sea characterized by a flow depth that is much larger than the one in the fluvial reach, and the conditions are such that the transported sediment passing the brinkpoint forms a wedge at the topmost part of the foreset, which results in avalanches down the foreset and a fining upward pattern within the foreset deposit. A Gilbert delta is typically described in terms of a low-slope topset (resulting from deposition over the fluvial reach), a steep-slope foreset (resulting from sediment avalanches over the lee face), and a bottomset (resulting from deposition of fine sediment passing the brinkpoint as suspended load). The objective of the present study is to gain insight into the mechanisms taking part in Gilbert delta formation and progradation under variable base level conditions. In order to do so, three flume experiments were conducted in which the water discharge and sediment feed rate were maintained constant but the base level varied between the experiments: (I) constant base level, (II) a gradually rising base level, and (III) a slowly varying base level. The stratigraphy within the delta deposit was measured using image analysis combined with particle coloring. A steady base level resulted in aggradation over the fluvial reach in order to maintain a slope required to transport the supplied sediment downstream. Sea level rise enhanced the amount of aggradation over the fluvial reach due to the presence of an M1 backwater curve. The aggrading flux to the substrate was slightly coarser than the fed sediment. The sediment at the base of the foreset deposit appeared to become coarser in streamwise direction. Eventually, a fall of the base level induced an M2 backwater curve over the fluvial reach that caused degradation of the fluvial reach. Base level fall first induced erosion of the mobile armor that covered the fluvial reach. This led to an initial coarsening of the brinkpoint load (and foreset deposit). Once the mobile armour was eroded, base level fall led to degradation of the finer substrate, which resulted in a fining of the brinkpoint load and foreset deposit. The relation between the sediment size stratification and the base level change may be used for the reconstruction of the paleo sea level from the stratigraphy of ancient Gilbert deltas.

GGOS Focus Area 3: Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöne, Tilo; Shum, Ck; Tamisiea, Mark; Woodworth, Philip

2017-04-01

Sea level and its change have been measured for more than a century. Especially for coastal nations, deltaic regions, and coastal-oriented industries, observations of tides, tidal extremes, storm surges, and sea level rise at the interannual or longer scales have substantial impacts on coastal vulnerability towards resilience and sustainability of world's coastal regions. To date, the observed global sea level rise is largely associated with climate related changes. To find the patterns and fingerprints of those changes, and to e.g., separate the land motion from sea level signals, different monitoring techniques have been developed. Some of them are local, e.g., tide gauges, while others are global, e.g., satellite altimetry. It is well known that sea level change and land vertical motion varies regionally, and both signals need to be measured in order to quantify relative sea level at the local scale. The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) and its services contribute in many ways to the monitoring of the sea level. These includes tide gauge observations, estimation of gravity changes, satellite altimetry, InSAR/Lidar, GNSS-control of tide gauges, providing ground truth sites for satellite altimetry, and importantly the maintenance of the International Reference Frame. Focus Area 3 (Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability) of GGOS establishes a platform and a forum for researchers and authorities dealing with estimating global and local sea level changes in a 10- to 30-year time span, and its project to the next century or beyond. It presents an excellent opportunity to emphasize the global, through to regional and local, importance of GGOS to a wide range of sea-level related science and practical applications. Focus Area 3 works trough demonstration projects to highlight the value of geodetic techniques to sea level science and applications. Contributions under a call for participation (http://www.ggos.org/Applications/theme3_SL.html) are welcome. The present status of GGOS Focus Area 3 will be highlighted. http://www.ggos-portal.org/lang_en/GGOS-Portal/EN/Themes/SeaLevel/seaLevel.html

Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and extreme sea levels in the South Pacific — A regional assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; McBride, John L.

2012-01-01

This paper reviews the current understanding of the effect of climate change on extreme sea levels in the South Pacific region. This region contains many locations that are vulnerable to extreme sea levels in the current climate, and projections indicate that this vulnerability will increase in the future. The recent publication of authoritative statements on the relationship between global warming and global sea level rise, tropical cyclones and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon has motivated this review. Confident predictions of global mean sea level rise are modified by regional differences in the steric (density-related) component of sea level rise and changing gravitational interactions between the ocean and the ice sheets which affect the regional distribution of the eustatic (mass-related) contribution to sea level rise. The most extreme sea levels in this region are generated by tropical cyclones. The intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones is likely to increase, but many climate models project a substantial decrease in tropical cyclone numbers in this region, which may lead to an overall decrease in the total number of intense tropical cyclones. This projection, however, needs to be better quantified using improved high-resolution climate model simulations of tropical cyclones. Future changes in ENSO may lead to large regional variations in tropical cyclone incidence and sea level rise, but these impacts are also not well constrained. While storm surges from tropical cyclones give the largest sea level extremes in the parts of this region where they occur, other more frequent high sea level events can arise from swell generated by distant storms. Changes in wave climate are projected for the tropical Pacific due to anthropogenically-forced changes in atmospheric circulation. Future changes in sea level extremes will be caused by a combination of changes in mean sea level, regional sea level trends, tropical cyclone incidence and wave climate. Recommendations are given for research to increase understanding of the response of these factors to climate change. Implications of the results for adaptation research are also discussed.

Adaptation and evolution of deep-sea scale worms (Annelida: Polynoidae): insights from transcriptome comparison with a shallow-water species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yanjie; Sun, Jin; Chen, Chong; Watanabe, Hiromi K.; Feng, Dong; Zhang, Yu; Chiu, Jill M. Y.; Qian, Pei-Yuan; Qiu, Jian-Wen

2017-04-01

Polynoid scale worms (Polynoidae, Annelida) invaded deep-sea chemosynthesis-based ecosystems approximately 60 million years ago, but little is known about their genetic adaptation to the extreme deep-sea environment. In this study, we reported the first two transcriptomes of deep-sea polynoids (Branchipolynoe pettiboneae, Lepidonotopodium sp.) and compared them with the transcriptome of a shallow-water polynoid (Harmothoe imbricata). We determined codon and amino acid usage, positive selected genes, highly expressed genes and putative duplicated genes. Transcriptome assembly produced 98,806 to 225,709 contigs in the three species. There were more positively charged amino acids (i.e., histidine and arginine) and less negatively charged amino acids (i.e., aspartic acid and glutamic acid) in the deep-sea species. There were 120 genes showing clear evidence of positive selection. Among the 10% most highly expressed genes, there were more hemoglobin genes with high expression levels in both deep-sea species. The duplicated genes related to DNA recombination and metabolism, and gene expression were only enriched in deep-sea species. Deep-sea scale worms adopted two strategies of adaptation to hypoxia in the chemosynthesis-based habitats (i.e., rapid evolution of tetra-domain hemoglobin in Branchipolynoe or high expression of single-domain hemoglobin in Lepidonotopodium sp.).

Adaptation and evolution of deep-sea scale worms (Annelida: Polynoidae): insights from transcriptome comparison with a shallow-water species

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yanjie; Sun, Jin; Chen, Chong; Watanabe, Hiromi K.; Feng, Dong; Zhang, Yu; Chiu, Jill M.Y.; Qian, Pei-Yuan; Qiu, Jian-Wen

2017-01-01

Polynoid scale worms (Polynoidae, Annelida) invaded deep-sea chemosynthesis-based ecosystems approximately 60 million years ago, but little is known about their genetic adaptation to the extreme deep-sea environment. In this study, we reported the first two transcriptomes of deep-sea polynoids (Branchipolynoe pettiboneae, Lepidonotopodium sp.) and compared them with the transcriptome of a shallow-water polynoid (Harmothoe imbricata). We determined codon and amino acid usage, positive selected genes, highly expressed genes and putative duplicated genes. Transcriptome assembly produced 98,806 to 225,709 contigs in the three species. There were more positively charged amino acids (i.e., histidine and arginine) and less negatively charged amino acids (i.e., aspartic acid and glutamic acid) in the deep-sea species. There were 120 genes showing clear evidence of positive selection. Among the 10% most highly expressed genes, there were more hemoglobin genes with high expression levels in both deep-sea species. The duplicated genes related to DNA recombination and metabolism, and gene expression were only enriched in deep-sea species. Deep-sea scale worms adopted two strategies of adaptation to hypoxia in the chemosynthesis-based habitats (i.e., rapid evolution of tetra-domain hemoglobin in Branchipolynoe or high expression of single-domain hemoglobin in Lepidonotopodium sp.). PMID:28397791

Eustatic control of turbidites and winnowed turbidites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shanmugam, G.; Moiola, R.J.

1982-05-01

Global changes in sea level, primarily the results of tectonism and glaciation, control deep-sea sedimentation. During periods of low sea level the frequency of turbidity currents is greatly increased. Episodes of low sea level also cause vigorous contour currents, which winnow away the fines of turbidites. In the rock record, the occurrence of most turbidites and winnowed turbidities closely corresponds to global lowstands of paleo-sea level. This observation may be useful in predicting the occurrence of deep-sea reservoir facies in the geologic record.

A new classification scheme of European cold-water coral habitats: Implications for ecosystem-based management of the deep sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, J. S.; Guillaumont, B.; Tempera, F.; Vertino, A.; Beuck, L.; Ólafsdóttir, S. H.; Smith, C. J.; Fosså, J. H.; van den Beld, I. M. J.; Savini, A.; Rengstorf, A.; Bayle, C.; Bourillet, J.-F.; Arnaud-Haond, S.; Grehan, A.

2017-11-01

Cold-water corals (CWC) can form complex structures which provide refuge, nursery grounds and physical support for a diversity of other living organisms. However, irrespectively from such ecological significance, CWCs are still vulnerable to human pressures such as fishing, pollution, ocean acidification and global warming Providing coherent and representative conservation of vulnerable marine ecosystems including CWCs is one of the aims of the Marine Protected Areas networks being implemented across European seas and oceans under the EC Habitats Directive, the Marine Strategy Framework Directive and the OSPAR Convention. In order to adequately represent ecosystem diversity, these initiatives require a standardised habitat classification that organises the variety of biological assemblages and provides consistent and functional criteria to map them across European Seas. One such classification system, EUNIS, enables a broad level classification of the deep sea based on abiotic and geomorphological features. More detailed lower biotope-related levels are currently under-developed, particularly with regards to deep-water habitats (>200 m depth). This paper proposes a hierarchical CWC biotope classification scheme that could be incorporated by existing classification schemes such as EUNIS. The scheme was developed within the EU FP7 project CoralFISH to capture the variability of CWC habitats identified using a wealth of seafloor imagery datasets from across the Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean. Depending on the resolution of the imagery being interpreted, this hierarchical scheme allows data to be recorded from broad CWC biotope categories down to detailed taxonomy-based levels, thereby providing a flexible yet valuable information level for management. The CWC biotope classification scheme identifies 81 biotopes and highlights the limitations of the classification framework and guidance provided by EUNIS, the EC Habitats Directive, OSPAR and FAO; which largely underrepresent CWC habitats.

Monitoring Sea Level At L'Estartit, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Benjamin, J.; Ortiz Castellon, M.; Martinez-Garcia, M.; Talaya, J.; Rodriguez Velasco, G.; Perez, B.

2007-12-01

Sea level is an environmental variable which is widely recognised as being important in many scientific disciplines as a control parameter for coastal dynamical processes or climate processes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean systems, as well as engineering applications. A major source of sea-level data are the national networks of coastal tide gauges, in Spain belonging to different institutions as the Instituto Geográfico Nacional (IGN), Puertos del Estado (PE), Instituto Hidrográfico de la Marina (IHM), Ports de la Generalitat, etc. Three Begur Cape experiences on radar altimeter calibration and marine geoid mapping made on 1999, 2000 and 2002 are overviewed. The marine geoid has been used to relate the coastal tide gauge data from l'Estartit harbour to off-shore altimetric data. The necessity to validate and calibrate the satellite's altimeter due to increasing needs in accuracy and long term integrity implies establishing calibration sites with enhanced ground based methods for sea level monitoring. A technical Spanish contribution to the calibration experience has been the design of GPS buoys and GPS catamaran taking in account the University of Colorado at Boulder and Senetosa/Capraia designs. Altimeter calibration is essential to obtain an absolute measure of sea level, as are knowing the instrument's drifts and bias. Specially designed tidegauges are necessary to improve the quality of altimetric data, preferably near the satellite track. Further, due to systematic differences a month instruments onboard different satellites, several in-situ calibrations are essentials to tie their systematic differences. L'Estartit tide gauge is a classical floating tide gauge set up in l'Estartit harbour (NE Spain) in 1990. It provides good quality information about the changes in the sea heights at centimetre level, that is the magnitude of the common tides in theMediterranean. In the framework of a Spanish Space Project, ref:ESP2001- 4534-PE, the instrumentation of sea level measurements as been improved by providing this site with a radar tide gauge and with a continuous GPS station nearby. This will have a significant incidence in the satellite altimeter calibration activities. The radar tide gauge with data recorder and transmitter is a Datamar 3000C with 26 GHz frequency, 1mm resolution, 8º beam width incorporating a GPS receiver for automatic clock synchronization and a Thales Navigation Internet-Enabled GPS Continuous Geodetic Reference Station (iCGRS) with a choke ring antenna. It is intended that the overall system will constitute a CGPS Station of the ESEAS (European Sea Level) and TIGA (GPS Tide Gauge Benchmark Monitoring) networks. A Partenavia P-68 airborne LIDAR campaign carrying an Optech Lidar ALT-3025 has been made in June 2007 to test the potential of Lidar to connect sea level measurements from tide gauges at the coast with satellite (as Jason-1 or Envisat) altimetry measurements offshore. The calibrated airborne Lidar can then be used over ocean to detect the sea surface height. In consequence, the objective is to check that the coastal sea level can be observed with GPS buoys and may be Lidar campaigns for get detailed regional geoid and sea surface topography models for referencing satellite altimeter measurements.

Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Woodworth, P. L.; Albrecht, F.; Dillingh, D.; Jensen, J.; Nicholls, R. J.; Weisse, R.; Wöppelmann, G.

2013-09-01

This paper assesses historic changes in mean sea level around the coastline of the North Sea, one of the most densely populated coasts in the world. Typically, such analyses have been conducted at a national level, and detailed geographically wider analyses have not been undertaken for about 20 years. We analyse long records (up to 200 years) from 30 tide gauge sites, which are reasonably uniformly distributed along the coastline, and: (1) calculate relative sea level trends; (2) examine the inter-annual and decadal variations; (3) estimate regional geocentric (sometimes also referred to as 'absolute') sea level rise throughout the 20th century; and (4) assess the evidence for regional acceleration of sea-level rise. Relative sea level changes are broadly consistent with known vertical land movement patterns. The inter-annual and decadal variability is partly coherent across the region, but with some differences between the Inner North Sea and the English Channel. Data sets from various sources are used to provide estimates of the geocentric sea level changes. The long-term geocentric mean sea level trend for the 1900 to 2011 period is estimated to be 1.5 ± 0.1 mm/yr for the entire North Sea region. The trend is slightly higher for the Inner North Sea (i.e. 1.6 ± 0.1 mm/yr), and smaller but not significantly different on the 95% confidence level for the English Channel (i.e. 1.2 ± 0.1 mm/yr). The uncertainties in the estimates of vertical land movement rates are still large, and the results from a broad range of approaches for determining these rates are not consistent. Periods of sea level rise acceleration are detected at different times throughout the last 200 years and are to some extent related to air pressure variations. The recent rates of sea level rise (i.e. over the last two to three decades) are high compared to the long-term average, but are comparable to those which have been observed at other times in the late 19th and 20th century.

Assessing the Potential for Inland Migration of a Northeastern Salt Marsh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farron, S.; FitzGerald, D.; Hughes, Z. J.

2017-12-01

It is often assumed that as sea level rises, salt marshes will expand inland. If the slope of the upland is relatively flat and sufficient sediment is available, marshes should be able to spread horizontally and grow vertically in order to maintain their areal extent. However, in cases where marshes are backed by steeper slopes, or sediment supply is limited, rising sea level will produce minimal gains along the landward edge insufficient to offset potential losses along the seaward edge. This study uses future sea level rise scenarios to project areal losses for the Great Marsh in Massachusetts, the largest continuous salt marsh in New England. Land area covered by salt marsh is defined by surface elevation. Annual sediment input to the system is estimated based on the areal extent of high and low marsh, historical accretion rates for each, and known organic/inorganic ratios. Unlike other studies, sediment availability is considered to be finite, and future accretion rates are limited based on the assumption that the system is presently receiving the maximum sediment input available. The Great Marsh is dominated by high marsh; as sea level rises, it will convert to low marsh, vastly altering the ecological and sedimentological dynamics of the system. If it is assumed that former high marsh areas will build vertically at the increased rate associated with low marsh, then much of the total marsh area will be maintained. However, this may be an unrealistic assumption due to the low levels of suspended sediment within the Great Marsh system. Modeling the evolution of the Great Marsh by assuming that the current accretion rate is the maximum possible for this system reveals much greater losses than models assuming an unlimited sediment supply would predict (17% less marsh by 2115). In addition, uplands surrounding the Great Marsh have been shaped by glaciation, leaving numerous drumlins and other glacial landforms. Compared to the flat backbarrier, the surrounding hills offer little opportunity for expansion. Modeling results suggest that sea level rise over the next century will convert 12 km2 of marsh to open water, but only 9 km2 of new marsh will be formed through uplands inundation and sedimentation. These findings suggest that sea level rise presents a particular threat to the Great Marsh, and marshes like it.

Sea Level Changes: Determination and Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodworth, P. L.; Pugh, D. T.; DeRonde, J. G.; Warrick, R. G.; Hannah, J.

The measurement of sea level is of fundamental importance to a wide range of research in climatology, oceanography, geology and geodesy. This volume attempts to cover many aspects of the field. The volume opens with a description by Bolduc and Murty of one of the products stemming from the development of tide gauge networks in the northern and tropical Atlantic. This work is relevant to the growth of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), the main goal of which is to provide the world with an efficient, coherent sea level monitoring system for océanographie and climatological research. The subsequent four papers present results from the analysis of existing tide gauge data, including those datasets available from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level and the TOGA Sea Level Center. Two of the four, by Wroblewski and by Pasaric and Orlic, are concerned with European sea level changes, while Yu Jiye et al. discuss inter-annual changes in the Pacific, and Wang Baocan et al. describe variability in the Changjiang estuary in China. The papers by El- Abd and A wad, on Red Sea levels, are the only contributions to the volume from the large research community of geologists concerned with sea level changes.

Seasonal Sea-Level Variations in San Francisco Bay in Response to Atmospheric Forcing, 1980

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Jingyuan; Cheng, R.T.; Smith, P.C.

1997-01-01

The seasonal response of sea level in San Francisco Bay (SFB) to atmospheric forcing during 1980 is investigated. The relations between sea-level data from the Northern Reach, Central Bay and South Bay, and forcing by local wind stresses, sea level pressure (SLP), runoff and the large scale sea level pressure field are examined in detail. The analyses show that the sea-level elevations and slopes respond to the along-shore wind stress T(V) at most times of the year, and to the cross-shore wind stress T(N) during two transition periods in spring and autumn. River runoff raises the sea-level elevation during winter. It is shown that winter precipitation in the SFB area is mainly attributed to the atmospheric circulation associated with the Alcutian Low, which transports the warm, moist air into the Bay area. A multiple linear regression model is employed to estimate the independent contributions of barometric pressure and wind stress to adjusted sea level. These calculations have a simple dynamical interpretation which confirms the importance of along-shore wind to both sea level and north-south slope within the Bay.

Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

PubMed

Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

2017-04-20

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

Optical Modeling of Sea Salt Aerosols: The Effects of Nonsphericity and Inhomogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, Lei; Lin, Wushao; Wang, Zheng; Tang, Xiaoyun; Zhang, Xiaoyu; Yi, Bingqi

2018-01-01

The nonsphericity and inhomogeneity of marine aerosols (sea salts) have not been addressed in pertinent radiative transfer calculations and remote sensing studies. This study investigates the optical properties of nonspherical and inhomogeneous sea salts using invariant imbedding T-matrix simulations. Dry sea salt aerosols are modeled based on superellipsoidal geometries with a prescribed aspect ratio and roundness parameter. Wet sea salt particles are modeled as coated superellipsoids, as spherical particles with a superellipsoidal core, and as homogeneous spheres depending on the level of relative humidity. Aspect ratio and roundness parameters are found to be critical to interpreting the linear depolarization ratios (LDRs) of NaCl crystals from laboratory measurements. The optimal morphology parameters of NaCl necessary to reproduce the measurements are found to be consistent with data gleaned from an electron micrograph. The LDRs of wet sea salts are computed based on inhomogeneous models and compared with the measured data from ground-based LiDAR. The dependence of the LDR on relative humidity is explicitly considered. The increase in the LDR with relative humidity at the initial phase of deliquescence is attributed to both the size increase and the inhomogeneity effect. For large humidity values, the LDR substantially decreases because the overall particle shape becomes more spherical and the inhomogeneity effect in a particle on the LDR is suppressed for submicron sea salts. However, the effect of inhomogeneity on optical properties is pronounced for coarse-mode sea salts. These findings have important implications for atmospheric radiative transfer and remote sensing involving sea salt aerosols.

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri

2016-03-01

We address the possibilities of a separation of the overall increasing trend in maximum water levels of semi-enclosed water bodies into associated trends in the heights of local storm surges and basin-scale components of the water level based on recorded and modelled local water level time series. The test area is the Baltic Sea. Sequences of strong storms may substantially increase its water volume and raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events are singled out from the water level time series using a weekly-scale average. The trends in the annual maxima of the weekly average have an almost constant value along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast for averaging intervals longer than 4 days. Their slopes are ~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average and decrease with an increase of the averaging interval. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level maxima. Their slopes vary from almost zero for the open Baltic Proper coast up to 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This pattern suggests that an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area but storm duration may have increased and wind direction may have rotated.

Aquatic antagonists: cutaneous sea urchin spine injury.

PubMed

Hsieh, Clifford; Aronson, Erica R; Ruiz de Luzuriaga, Arlene M

2016-11-01

Injuries from sea urchin spines are commonly seen in coastal regions with high levels of participation in water activities. Although these injuries may seem minor, the consequences vary based on the location of the injury. Sea urchin spine injuries may cause arthritis and synovitis from spines in the joints. Nonjoint injuries have been reported, and dermatologic aspects of sea urchin spine injuries rarely have been discussed. We present a case of a patient with sea urchin spines embedded in the thigh who subsequently developed painful skin nodules. Tissue from the site of the injury demonstrated foreign-body type granulomas. Following the removal of the spines and granulomatous tissue, the patient experienced resolution of the nodules and associated pain. Extraction of sea urchin spines can attenuate the pain and decrease the likelihood of granuloma formation, infection, and long-term sequelae.

Projected Sea Level Rise and Changes in Extreme Storm Surge and Wave Events During the 21st Century in the Region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, M. D.; Cannaby, H.; Howard, T.; Bricheno, L.

2016-02-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980-2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m(0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5(8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaby, H.; Palmer, M. D.; Howard, T.; Bricheno, L.; Calvert, D.; Krijnen, J.; Wood, R.; Tinker, J.; Bunney, C.; Harle, J.; Saulter, A.; O'Neill, C.; Bellingham, C.; Lowe, J.

2015-12-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ~ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled (~ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980-2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2 year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ~ 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

Sea level response to ENSO along the central California coast: How the 1997-1998 event compares with the historic record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, H.F.; Noble, M.

2002-01-01

Long-term monthly sea level and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from central California show that during winter months, positive anomalies are associated with El Nin??o events and the negative ones with La Nin??a events. There is no significant impact on monthly mean anomalies associated with Pacific decadal oscillations, although there is a tendency for more extreme events and greater variance during positive decadal oscillations. The very strong 1997-1998 El Nin??o was analyzed with respect to the long-term historic record to assess the forcing mechanisms for sea level and SST. Beginning in the spring of 1997, we observed several long-period (> 30days) fluctuations in daily sea level with amplitudes of over 10 cm at San Francisco, California. Fluctuations of poleward long-period alongshore wind stress anomalies (AWSA) are coherent with the sea level anomalies. However, the wind stress cannot entirely account for the observed sea level signals. The sea level fluctuations are also correlated with sea level fluctuations observed further south at Los Angeles and Tumaco, Columbia, which showed a poleward phase propagation of the sea level signal. We suggest that the sea level fluctuations were, to a greater degree, forced by the passage of remotely generated and coastally trapped waves that were generated along the equator and propagated to the north along the west coast of North America. However, both local and remote AWSA can significantly modulate the sea level signals. The arrival of coastally trapped waves began in the spring of 1997, which is earlier than previous strong El Nin??o events such as the 1982-1983 event. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

How climate and weather affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Plant, N. G.

2015-12-01

Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic way while accounting for non-stationarity due to climate variability and change can help decision makers and planners to implement improved monitoring and adaptation strategies for long-term sustainability of the coastline and barrier islands.

Erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico - the effects of climate and weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

2016-04-01

Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic way while accounting for non-stationarity due to climate variability and change can help decision makers and planners to implement improved monitoring and adaptation strategies for long-term sustainability of the coastline and barrier islands.

High resolution climate projection of storm surge at the Venetian coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, R.; Sterl, A.; Lionello, P.

2013-04-01

Climate change impact on storm surge regime is of great importance for the safety and maintenance of Venice. In this study a future storm surge scenario is evaluated using new high resolution sea level pressure and wind data recently produced by EC-Earth, an Earth System Model based on the operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The study considers an ensemble of six 5 yr long simulations of the rcp45 scenario at 0.25° resolution and compares the 2094-2098 to the 2004-2008 period. EC-Earth sea level pressure and surface wind fields are used as input for a shallow water hydrodynamic model (HYPSE) which computes sea level and barotropic currents in the Adriatic Sea. Results show that a high resolution climate model is needed for producing realistic values of storm surge statistics and confirm previous studies in that they show little sensitivity of storm surge levels to climate change. However, some climate change signals are detected, such as increased persistence of high pressure conditions, an increased frequency of windless hour, and a decreased number of moderate windstorms.

Vertical Crustal Motion Derived from Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauges, and Comparisons with DORIS Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, R. D.; Beckley, B. D.; Lemoine, F. G.

2010-01-01

A somewhat unorthodox method for determining vertical crustal motion at a tide-gauge location is to difference the sea level time series with an equivalent time series determined from satellite altimetry, To the extent that both instruments measure an identical ocean signal, the difference will be dominated by vertical land motion at the gauge. We revisit this technique by analyzing sea level signals at 28 tide gauges that are colocated with DORIS geodetic stations. Comparisons of altimeter-gauge vertical rates with DORIS rates yield a median difference of 1.8 mm/yr and a weighted root-mean-square difference of2.7 mm/yr. The latter suggests that our uncertainty estimates, which are primarily based on an assumed AR(l) noise process in all time series, underestimates the true errors. Several sources of additional error are discussed, including possible scale errors in the terrestrial reference frame to which altimeter-gauge rates are mostly insensitive, One of our stations, Male, Maldives, which has been the subject of some uninformed arguments about sea-level rise, is found to have almost no vertical motion, and thus is vulnerable to rising sea levels. Published by Elsevier Ltd. on behalf of COSPAR.

Closed-form analytical solutions for assessing the consequences of sea-level rise on unconfined sloping island aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chesnaux, R.

2016-04-01

Closed-form analytical solutions for assessing the consequences of sea-level rise on fresh groundwater oceanic island lenses are provided for the cases of both strip and circular islands. Solutions are proposed for directly calculating the change in the thickness of the lens, the changes in volume and the changes in travel time of fresh groundwater within island aquifers. The solutions apply for homogenous aquifers recharged by surface infiltration and discharged by a down-gradient, fixed-head boundary. They also take into account the inland shift of the ocean due to land surface inundation, this shift being determined by the coastal slope of inland aquifers. The solutions are given for two simple island geometries: circular islands and strip islands. Base case examples are presented to illustrate, on one hand, the amplitude of the change of the fresh groundwater lens thickness and the volume depletion of the lens in oceanic island with sea-level rise, and on the other hand, the shortening of time required for groundwater to discharge into the ocean. These consequences can now be quantified and may help decision-makers to anticipate the effects of sea-level rise on fresh groundwater availability in oceanic island aquifers.

The color of sea level: Importance of spatial variations in spectral shape for assessing the significance of trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Simon D. P.

2010-10-01

We investigate spatial variations in the shape of the spectrum of sea level variability based on a homogeneously sampled 12 year gridded altimeter data set. We present a method of plotting spectral information as color, focusing on periods between 2 and 24 weeks, which shows that significant spatial variations in the spectral shape exist and contain useful dynamical information. Using the Bayesian Information Criterion, we determine that, typically, a fifth-order autoregressive model is needed to capture the structure in the spectrum. Using this model, we show that statistical errors in fitted local trends range between less than 1 and more than 5 times of what would be calculated assuming "white" noise and that the time needed to detect a 1 mm/yr trend ranges between about 5 years and many decades. For global mean sea level, the statistical error reduces to 0.1 mm/yr over 12 years, with only 2 years needed to detect a 1 mm/yr trend. We find significant regional differences in trend from the global mean. The patterns of these regional differences are indicative of a sea level trend dominated by dynamical ocean processes over this period.

The use of piezocone tests for high-resolution stratigraphy of Quaternary sediment sequences in the Brazilian coast.

PubMed

de Mio, Giuliano; Giacheti, Heraldo L

2007-03-01

Correlations between mapping units of costal sedimentary basin and interpretation of piezocone test results are presented and discussed based on examples from Caravelas strandplain, (State of Bahia), Paranaguá (State of Paraná) and Guarujá bays (State of São Paulo), Brazil. Recognizing that the sedimentary environment was mainly controlled by sea level fluctuations led to the interpretation of transgressive and regressive sedimentary sequences, which is in a good agreement with the sea level fluctuation curves currently accepted for these regions. The interpretation of piezocone test results shows that the sedimentary sequences of Caravelas and Guarujá sites are similar and they have a good correlation to the sea level fluctuation curve accepted for Salvador region, State of Bahia. On the other hand, the piezocone test results from Paranaguá site indicate a different sedimentary sequence from the previous ones, relating to the sea level fluctuation curve accepted for Paranaguá region. The results show the high applicability of piezocone testing for stratigraphical logging and suggest that it is possible to integrate it with other current techniques used for paleo-environmental studies in Brazil, in accordance with recent approaches used in international research on the subject.

Coastal marsh response to historical and future sea-level acceleration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, M.; Temmerman, S.

2009-01-01

We consider the response of marshland to accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise by utilizing two previously described numerical models of marsh elevation. In a model designed for the Scheldt Estuary (Belgium-SW Netherlands), a feedback between inundation depth and suspended sediment concentrations allows marshes to quickly adjust their elevation to a change in sea-level rise rate. In a model designed for the North Inlet Estuary (South Carolina), a feedback between inundation and vegetation growth allows similar adjustment. Although the models differ in their approach, we find that they predict surprisingly similar responses to sea-level change. Marsh elevations adjust to a step change in the rate of sea-level rise in about 100 years. In the case of a continuous acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, modeled accretion rates lag behind sea-level rise rates by about 20 years, and never obtain equilibrium. Regardless of the style of acceleration, the models predict approximately 6-14 cm of marsh submergence in response to historical sea-level acceleration, and 3-4 cm of marsh submergence in response to a projected scenario of sea-level rise over the next century. While marshes already low in the tidal frame would be susceptible to these depth changes, our modeling results suggest that factors other than historical sea-level acceleration are more important for observations of degradation in most marshes today.

Coupling physically based and data-driven models for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayzel, Georgy; Izhitskiy, Alexander

2018-06-01

The Aral Sea desiccation and related changes in hydroclimatic conditions on a regional level is a hot topic for past decades. The key problem of scientific research projects devoted to an investigation of modern Aral Sea basin hydrological regime is its discontinuous nature - the only limited amount of papers takes into account the complex runoff formation system entirely. Addressing this challenge we have developed a continuous prediction system for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea based on coupling stack of hydrological and data-driven models. Results show a good prediction skill and approve the possibility to develop a valuable water assessment tool which utilizes the power of classical physically based and modern machine learning models both for territories with complex water management system and strong water-related data scarcity. The source code and data of the proposed system is available on a Github page (https://github.com/SMASHIproject/IWRM2018).

Using continuous GPS and absolute gravity to separate vertical land movements and changes in sea-level at tide-gauges in the UK.

PubMed

Teferle, F N; Bingley, R M; Williams, S D P; Baker, T F; Dodson, A H

2006-04-15

Researchers investigating climate change have used historical tide-gauge measurements from all over the world to investigate the changes in sea-level that have occurred over the last century or so. However, such estimates are a combination of any true sea-level variations and any vertical movements of the land at the specific tide-gauge. For a tide- gauge record to be used to determine the climate related component of changes in sea-level, it is therefore necessary to correct for the vertical land movement component of the observed change in sea-level.In 1990, the Institute of Engineering Surveying and Space Geodesy and Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory started developing techniques based on the Global Positioning System (GPS) for measuring vertical land movements (VLM) at tide-gauges in the UK. This paper provides brief details of these early developments and shows how they led to the establishment of continuous GPS (CGPS) stations at a number of tide-gauges. The paper then goes on to discuss the use of absolute gravity (AG), as an independent technique for measuring VLM at tide-gauges. The most recent results, from CGPS time-series dating back to 1997 and AG time-series dating back to 1995/1996, are then used to demonstrate the complementarity of these two techniques and their potential for providing site-specific estimates of VLM at tide-gauges in the UK.

An empirical approach to improving tidal predictions using recent real-time tide gauge data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbert, Angela; Royston, Samantha; Horsburgh, Kevin J.; Leach, Harry

2014-05-01

Classical harmonic methods of tidal prediction are often problematic in estuarine environments due to the distortion of tidal fluctuations in shallow water, which results in a disparity between predicted and observed sea levels. This is of particular concern in the Bristol Channel, where the error associated with tidal predictions is potentially greater due to an unusually large tidal range of around 12m. As such predictions are fundamental to the short-term forecasting of High Water (HW) extremes, it is vital that alternative solutions are found. In a pilot study, using a year-long observational sea level record from the Port of Avonmouth in the Bristol Channel, the UK National Tidal and Sea Level Facility (NTSLF) tested the potential for reducing tidal prediction errors, using three alternatives to the Harmonic Method of tidal prediction. The three methods evaluated were (1) the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models, (2) the Species Concordance technique and (3) a simple empirical procedure for correcting Harmonic Method High Water predictions based upon a few recent observations (referred to as the Empirical Correction Method). This latter method was then successfully applied to sea level records from an additional 42 of the 45 tide gauges that comprise the UK Tide Gauge Network. Consequently, it is to be incorporated into the operational systems of the UK Coastal Monitoring and Forecasting Partnership in order to improve short-term sea level predictions for the UK and in particular, the accurate estimation of HW extremes.

21st Century Sea-Level Rise in Line with the Paris Accord

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Luke P.; Grinsted, Aslak; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

2018-02-01

As global average sea-level rises in the early part of this century there is great interest in how much global and local sea level will change in the forthcoming decades. The Paris Climate Agreement's proposed temperature thresholds of 1.5°C and 2°C have directed the research community to ask what differences occur in the climate system for these two states. We have developed a novel approach to combine climate model outputs that follow specific temperature pathways to make probabilistic projections of sea-level in a 1.5°C and 2°C world. We find median global sea-level (GSL) projections for 1.5°C and 2°C temperature pathways of 44 and 50 cm, respectively. The 90% uncertainty ranges (5%-95%) are both around 48 cm by 2100. In addition, we take an alternative approach to estimate the contribution from ice sheets by using a semi-empirical GSL model. Here we find median projections of 58 and 68 cm for 1.5°C and 2°C temperature pathways. The 90% uncertainty ranges are 67 and 82 cm respectively. Regional projections show similar patterns for both temperature pathways, though differences vary between the median projections (2-10 cm) and 95th percentile (5-20 cm) for the bulk of oceans using process-based approach and 10-15 cm (median) and 15-25 cm (95th percentile) using the semi-empirical approach.

Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise

PubMed Central

Haigh, Ivan D.; Wahl, Thomas; Rohling, Eelco J.; Price, René M.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Calafat, Francisco M.; Dangendorf, Sönke

2014-01-01

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records. PMID:24728012

Assessing risk of navigational hazard from sea-level-related datum in the South West of Java Sea, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poerbandono

2017-07-01

This paper assesses the presence of navigational hazards due to underestimation of charted depths originated from an establishment of a sea-level-related reference plane, i.e. datum. The study domain is situated in one of Indonesia's densest marine traffic, SW Java Sea, Indonesia. The assessment is based on the comparison of the authorized Chart Datum (CD), being uniformly located at 0.6 m below Mean Sea Level (MSL), and a spatially varying Lowest Astronomical Tide (LAT) generated for the purpose of this research. Hazards are considered here as the deviation of LAT from CD and quantified as the ratio of LAT -CD deviation with respect to the allowable Total Vertical Uncertainty (TVU), i.e. the international standard for accuracy of depth information on nautical charts. Underestimation of charted depth is expected for the case that LAT falls below CD. Such a risk magnifies with decreasing depths, as well as the increasing volume of traffic and draught of the vessel. It is found that most of the domain is in the interior of risk-free zone from using uniform CD. As much as 0.08 and 0.19 parts of the area are in zones where the uncertainty of CD contributes respectively to 50% and 30% of Total Vertical Uncertainty. These are zones where the hazard of navigation is expected to increase due to underestimated lowest tidal level.

Percolation blockage: A process that enables melt pond formation on first year Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polashenski, Chris; Golden, Kenneth M.; Perovich, Donald K.; Skyllingstad, Eric; Arnsten, Alexandra; Stwertka, Carolyn; Wright, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Melt pond formation atop Arctic sea ice is a primary control of shortwave energy balance in the Arctic Ocean. During late spring and summer, the ponds determine sea ice albedo and how much solar radiation is transmitted into the upper ocean through the sea ice. The initial formation of ponds requires that melt water be retained above sea level on the ice surface. Both theory and observations, however, show that first year sea ice is so highly porous prior to the formation of melt ponds that multiday retention of water above hydraulic equilibrium should not be possible. Here we present results of percolation experiments that identify and directly demonstrate a mechanism allowing melt pond formation. The infiltration of fresh water into the pore structure of sea ice is responsible for blocking percolation pathways with ice, sealing the ice against water percolation, and allowing water to pool above sea level. We demonstrate that this mechanism is dependent on fresh water availability, known to be predominantly from snowmelt, and ice temperature at melt onset. We argue that the blockage process has the potential to exert significant control over interannual variability in ice albedo. Finally, we suggest that incorporating the mechanism into models would enhance their physical realism. Full treatment would be complex. We provide a simple temperature threshold-based scheme that may be used to incorporate percolation blockage behavior into existing model frameworks.

Fuzzy interval Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis for mid-frequency analysis of built-up systems with mixed fuzzy and interval parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Hui; Yu, Dejie; Yin, Shengwen; Xia, Baizhan

2016-10-01

This paper introduces mixed fuzzy and interval parametric uncertainties into the FE components of the hybrid Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (FE/SEA) model for mid-frequency analysis of built-up systems, thus an uncertain ensemble combining non-parametric with mixed fuzzy and interval parametric uncertainties comes into being. A fuzzy interval Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (FIFE/SEA) framework is proposed to obtain the uncertain responses of built-up systems, which are described as intervals with fuzzy bounds, termed as fuzzy-bounded intervals (FBIs) in this paper. Based on the level-cut technique, a first-order fuzzy interval perturbation FE/SEA (FFIPFE/SEA) and a second-order fuzzy interval perturbation FE/SEA method (SFIPFE/SEA) are developed to handle the mixed parametric uncertainties efficiently. FFIPFE/SEA approximates the response functions by the first-order Taylor series, while SFIPFE/SEA improves the accuracy by considering the second-order items of Taylor series, in which all the mixed second-order items are neglected. To further improve the accuracy, a Chebyshev fuzzy interval method (CFIM) is proposed, in which the Chebyshev polynomials is used to approximate the response functions. The FBIs are eventually reconstructed by assembling the extrema solutions at all cut levels. Numerical results on two built-up systems verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Satellite altimetry in sea ice regions - detecting open water for estimating sea surface heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Felix L.; Dettmering, Denise; Bosch, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

The Greenland Sea and the Farm Strait are transporting sea ice from the central Arctic ocean southwards. They are covered by a dynamic changing sea ice layer with significant influences on the Earth climate system. Between the sea ice there exist various sized open water areas known as leads, straight lined open water areas, and polynyas exhibiting a circular shape. Identifying these leads by satellite altimetry enables the extraction of sea surface height information. Analyzing the radar echoes, also called waveforms, provides information on the surface backscatter characteristics. For example waveforms reflected by calm water have a very narrow and single-peaked shape. Waveforms reflected by sea ice show more variability due to diffuse scattering. Here we analyze altimeter waveforms from different conventional pulse-limited satellite altimeters to separate open water and sea ice waveforms. An unsupervised classification approach employing partitional clustering algorithms such as K-medoids and memory-based classification methods such as K-nearest neighbor is used. The classification is based on six parameters derived from the waveform's shape, for example the maximum power or the peak's width. The open-water detection is quantitatively compared to SAR images processed while accounting for sea ice motion. The classification results are used to derive information about the temporal evolution of sea ice extent and sea surface heights. They allow to provide evidence on climate change relevant influences as for example Arctic sea level rise due to enhanced melting rates of Greenland's glaciers and an increasing fresh water influx into the Arctic ocean. Additionally, the sea ice cover extent analyzed over a long-time period provides an important indicator for a globally changing climate system.

Groundwater-saline lakes interaction - The contribution of saline groundwater circulation to solute budget of saline lakes: a lesson from the Dead Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiro, Yael; Weinstein, Yishai; Starinsky, Abraham; Yechieli, Yoseph

2013-04-01

Saline lakes act as base level for both surface water and groundwater. Thus, a change in lake levels is expected to result in changes in the hydrogeological system in its vicinity, exhibited in groundwater levels, location of the fresh-saline water interface, sub-lacustrine groundwater discharge (SGD) and saline water circulation. All these processes were observed in the declining Dead Sea system, whose water level dropped by ~35 meters in the last 50 years. This work focuses mainly on the effect of circulation of Dead Sea water in the aquifer, which continues even in this very rapid base level drop. In general, seawater circulation in coastal aquifers is now recognized as a major process affecting trace element mass balances in coastal areas. Estimates of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) vary over several orders of magnitude (1-1000000 m3/yr per meter shoreline). These estimates are sensitive to fresh-saline SGD ratios and to the temporal and spatial scales of the circulation. The Dead Sea system is an excellent natural field lab for studying seawater-groundwater interaction and large-scale circulation due to the absence of tides and to the minor role played by waves. During Dead Sea water circulation in the aquifer several geochemical reactions occur, ranging from short-term adsorption-desorption reactions and up to long-term precipitation and dissolution reactions. These processes affect the trace element distribution in the saline groundwater. Barite and celestine, which are supersaturated in the lake water, precipitate during circulation in the aquifer, reducing barium (from 5 to 1.5 mg/L), strontium (from 350 to 300 mg/L) and the long-lived 226Ra (from 145 to 60 dpm/L) in the saline groundwater. Redox-controlled reactions cause a decrease in uranium from 2.4 to 0.1 μg/L, and an increase in iron from 1 to 13 mg/L. 228Ra (t1/2=5.75 yr) activity in the Dead Sea is ~1 dpm/L and increase gradually as the saline water flows further inland until reaching steady-state activities (~27 dpm/L) with the aquifer sediments. The decrease in 226Ra and increase in 228Ra in the circulation process provide a robust method for calculating the amount of Dead Sea water circulating in the aquifer. This process can affect trace element concentrations in the Dead Sea and emphasize the potential of long-term seawater circulation in mass balances of saline water bodies.

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) for wind energy planning: Lessons from the United Kingdom and Germany

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phylip-Jones, J., E-mail: jonesjp@liverpool.ac.uk; Fischer, T.B., E-mail: fischer@liv.ac.uk

This paper reports on SEA applied in the wind energy sector in the UK and Germany. Based on a review of 18 SEAs, it is found that the quality of SEA documentation is variable, with over a third of them being deemed unsatisfactory. Furthermore, SEA processes are conducted to varying degrees of effectiveness, with scoping a strength but impact prediction and mitigation weaknesses. Generally speaking, the influence of SEA on German wind energy plan making was found to be low and the influence of SEA on UK plans deemed to be moderate. The German plans had a low influence mainlymore » because of a perceived high environmental performance of the underlying plans in the first instance. Substantive outcomes of SEA are not always clear and the influence of SEA on decision making is said to be limited in many cases. Finally, a lack of effective tiering between SEA and project level EIA is also observed. In addition, our findings echo some of the weaknesses of SEA practice found in previous studies of SEA effectiveness, including poor impact prediction and significance sections and a lack of detailed monitoring programmes for post plan implementation.« less

Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: An example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology).

PubMed

Anderson, David G; Bissett, Thaddeus G; Yerka, Stephen J; Wells, Joshua J; Kansa, Eric C; Kansa, Sarah W; Myers, Kelsey Noack; DeMuth, R Carl; White, Devin A

2017-01-01

The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts.

Sea-level rise and archaeological site destruction: An example from the southeastern United States using DINAA (Digital Index of North American Archaeology)

PubMed Central

Wells, Joshua J.; Kansa, Eric C.; Kansa, Sarah W.; Myers, Kelsey Noack; DeMuth, R. Carl; White, Devin A.

2017-01-01

The impact of changing climate on terrestrial and underwater archaeological sites, historic buildings, and cultural landscapes can be examined through quantitatively-based analyses encompassing large data samples and broad geographic and temporal scales. The Digital Index of North American Archaeology (DINAA) is a multi-institutional collaboration that allows researchers online access to linked heritage data from multiple sources and data sets. The effects of sea-level rise and concomitant human population relocation is examined using a sample from nine states encompassing much of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States. A 1 m rise in sea-level will result in the loss of over >13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites, as well as over 1000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP), encompassing archaeological sites, standing structures, and other cultural properties. These numbers increase substantially with each additional 1 m rise in sea level, with >32,000 archaeological sites and >2400 NRHP properties lost should a 5 m rise occur. Many more unrecorded archaeological and historic sites will also be lost as large areas of the landscape are flooded. The displacement of millions of people due to rising seas will cause additional impacts where these populations resettle. Sea level rise will thus result in the loss of much of the record of human habitation of the coastal margin in the Southeast within the next one to two centuries, and the numbers indicate the magnitude of the impact on the archaeological record globally. Construction of large linked data sets is essential to developing procedures for sampling, triage, and mitigation of these impacts. PMID:29186200

Glacial-eustatic/climatic model for Upper Pennsylvanian marine and nonmarine cyclothems in the Appalachian basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heckel, P.H.

1992-01-01

Only glacial-eustatic sea-level fluctuations can account for all the characteristics of Upper Pennsylvanian marine cyclothems in the Midcontinent. Because this control is global, it must have affected deposition during this time everywhere. In the Appalachian basin widespread well developed paleosols represent long-term sea-level lowstand. During Conemaugh marine incursions, rising sea level ponded fresh-water influx to form peat swamps that migrated landward ahead of transgression and produced early transgressive coals. Marine highstand deposits commonly are conodont-rich limestones, typically skeletal packstone with glaucony and phosphorite. Regression resulted in progradation of detrital shorelines with local delta cycles, followed eventually by more paleosol formationmore » and local erosional incision that removed older sediments including the marine units in places. Fluvial sands filled many of these channels. During Monongahela deposition when marine incursions no longer entered the Appalachian basin, the climatic fluctuations recognized by Cecil can reasonably be related to sea-level fluctuations nearby, but with shifts in climatic significance of gross lithotopes. Coal swamps would more likely have formed at maximum marine highstand when the nearby sea would have provided both high base level and an abundant source of rainfall. Nonmarine limestones would more likely have formed at maximum lowstand when the sea was most distant and the climate driest. The intervening detrital deposits between the coals and limestones formed under intermediate seasonal rainfall regimes during both marine transgression and regression farther west in the Midcontinent. Conemaugh and Allegheny coals without overlying marine units probably also represent mainly marine highstand elsewhere, and nonmarine limestones of these ages typically are associated with lowstand paleosols.« less

Decadal sea level variability in the East China Sea linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Jae-Hong; Song, Y. Tony

2017-07-01

In view of coastal community's need for adapting to sea level rise (SLR), understanding and predicting regional variability on decadal to longer time scales still remain a challenging issue in SLR research. Here, we have examined the low-frequency sea level signals in the East China Sea (ECS) from the 50-year hindcast of a non-Boussinesq ocean model in comparison with data sets from altimeters, tide-gauges, and steric sea level produced by in-situ profiles. It is shown that the mean sea levels in the ECS represent significant decadal fluctuations over the past 50 years, with a multi-decadal trend shift since the mid-1980s compared to the preceding 30 years. The decadal fluctuations in sea level are more closely linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflects the multi-decadal trend shift. A composite analysis indicates that wind patterns associated with the NPGO is shown to control the decadal variability of the western subtropical North Pacific. A positive NPGO corresponds to cyclonic wind stress curl anomaly in the western subtropical regions that results in a higher sea level in the ECS, particularly along the continental shelf, and lower sea levels off the ECS. The reverse occurs in years of negative NPGO.

Influences of Relative Sea-Level Rise and Mississippi River Delta Plain Evolution on the Holocene Middle Amite River, Southeastern Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Autin, W.J.

1993-01-01

The Holocene geomorphic history of southeastern Louisiana's middle Amite River is recorded in the stratigraphy of three alloformations, identified in decreasing age as the Watson (WAT), Denham Springs (DS), and Magnolia Bridge (MAG). The WAT meander belt formed by at least 9000 yr B.P., when sea level was lower and the Amite River was tributary to a larger ancestral drainage basin. The DS became an active meander belt by at least 3000 yr B.P., in response to relative sea-level rise and eastward progradation of the Mississippi River delta plain. The MAG developed its meander belt, in part, during the European settlement of the drainage basin, and is now attempting to adjust to modern anthropogenic influences. Geomorphic influences on the middle Amite River floodplain have temporal and spatial components that induce regional- and local-scale effects. Regional extrinsic influences caused meander belt avulsion that produced alloformations. However, local influences produced intrinsic geomorphic thresholds that modified channel morphology within a meander belt but did not induce alloformation development. Base-level influences of the relative sea-level rise and the Mississippi River delta plain were so dominant that the effects of possible climate change were not recognized in the Holocene Amite River system.

Flooding Risk for Coastal Infrastructure: a Stakeholder-Oriented Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plater, A. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Knight, P. J.; Morrissey, K.

2015-12-01

A flood risk assessment for coastal energy infrastructure in the UK with respect to long-term sea-level rise and extreme water levels has been conducted using a combination of numerical modelling approaches (LISFLOOD-FP, SWAB, XBeach-G, POLCOMS). Model outputs have been incorporated into a decision-support tool that enables users from a wide spectrum of coastal stakeholders (e.g. nuclear energy, utility providers, local government, environmental regulators, communities) to explore the potential impacts of flooding on both operational (events to 10 years) and strategic (10 to 50 years) timescales. Examples illustrate the physical and economic impacts of flooding from combined extreme water levels, wave overtopping and high river flow for Fleetwood, NW England; changes in the extent of likely flooding arising from an extreme event due to sea-level rise for Oldbury, SW England; and the relative vulnerability to overtopping and breaching of sea defences for Dungeness, SE England. The impacts of a potential large-scale beach recharge scheme to mitigate coastal erosion and flood risk along the southern shoreline of Dungeness are also examined using a combination of coastal evolution and particle-tracking modelling. The research goal is to provide an evidence base for resource allocation, investment in interventions, and communication and dialogue in relation to sea-level rise to 2500 AD.

Sea-level rise impacts on the tides of the European Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idier, Déborah; Paris, François; Cozannet, Gonéri Le; Boulahya, Faiza; Dumas, Franck

2017-04-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) can modify not only total water levels, but also tidal dynamics. Several studies have investigated the effects of SLR on the tides of the western European continental shelf (mainly the M2 component). We further investigate this issue using a modelling-based approach, considering uniform SLR scenarios from -0.25 m to +10 m above present-day sea level. Assuming that coastal defenses are constructed along present-day shorelines, the patterns of change in high tide levels (annual maximum water level) are spatially similar, regardless of the magnitude of sea-level rise (i.e., the sign of the change remains the same, regardless of the SLR scenario) over most of the area (70%). Notable increases in high tide levels occur especially in the northern Irish Sea, the southern part of the North Sea and the German Bight, and decreases occur mainly in the western English Channel. These changes are generally proportional to SLR, as long as SLR remains smaller than 2 m. Depending on the location, they can account for +/-15% of regional SLR. High tide levels and the M2 component exhibit slightly different patterns. Analysis of the 12 largest tidal components highlights the need to take into account at least the M2, S2, N2, M4, MS4 and MN4 components when investigating the effects of SLR on tides. Changes in high tide levels are much less proportional to SLR when flooding is allowed, in particular in the German Bight. However, some areas (e.g., the English Channel) are not very sensitive to this option, meaning that the effects of SLR would be predictable in these areas, even if future coastal defense strategies are ignored. Physically, SLR-induced tidal changes result from the competition between reductions in bed friction damping, changes in resonance properties and increased reflection at the coast, i.e., local and non-local processes. A preliminary estimate of tidal changes by 2100 under a plausible non-uniform SLR scenario (using the RCP4.5 scenario) is provided. Though the changes display similar patterns, the high water levels appear to be sensitive to the non-uniformity of SLR.

MIS 5e sea level: up to what point can we use literature reviews to answer the most pressing questions on the Last Interglacial ice sheets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovere, A.; Raymo, M. E.

2014-12-01

During MIS 5e (between ~128 and 116 kyr BP) greenhouse gas concentrations were comparable to pre-industrial levels, summer insolation was higher by ~10% at high latitudes and polar temperatures in both hemispheres were about 3-5 °C warmer than today. Sea level (SL) at this time has been a subject of numerous studies (and some debate) with ~1000 sites with MIS 5e sea level markers recognized worldwide. Recently, Kopp et al. (Nature, 2009) and Dutton & Lambeck (Science, 2012) analyzed worldwide datasets of sea level markers pertaining to the last interglacial. After accounting for GIA, they reached similar conclusions that eustatic (i.e., globally averaged) sea level (ESL) was between +5 and +9.4 m above modern during MIS 5e. Furthermore, Kopp et al. (Nature, 2009; GJI, 2013) suggest that sea level was not uniform during the LIG, but instead underwent at least two rapid oscillations including a rapid late 5e rise first proposed by Hearty et al. (QSR, 2007) and later by O'Leary et al. (Nat. Geo., 2013). Investigating the temporal and geographic variability of MIS 5e sea level opens new lines of research, in particular the possibility to fingerprint (Hay et al., QSR, 2014) the source of the proposed rapid ice sheet collapse near the end of the Last Interglacial. In this presentation we ask: can we use a database of published sea level estimates for this purpose? To answer this question, we built a relative sea level (RSL) database using RSLcalc 2.0; this is a relational database specifically designed to review relative sea level data points while keeping all the relevant information contained in the original publications. RSlcalc allows to estimate the measurement error (on the actual elevation of the SL feature), the error on the indicative range (the elevation range occupied by a sea level indicator) as well as the reference water level (the relationship between the marker and the former sea level). We show that the majority of published data have an accuracy of few meters at best and, in most cases, are not precise enough for sea level fingerprinting. We conclude that the use of topographic-grade survey techniques is paramount in the study of paleo-sea levels and that revisiting known sites using such techniques is a priority for the understanding of polar ice volume and sea level changes during past interglacials

Ghost forest creation and the conversion of uplands to wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirwan, M. L.; Schieder, N. W.; Reay, W.

2017-12-01

Global sea level rise rates began accelerating sharply in the late 19th century, with an approximate tripling in sea level rise rates in many regions of the world. Some portions of the coastal landscape, such as marshes and barrier islands, survive relative sea level rise by natural eco-geomorphic processes that allow them to build elevation vertically and migrate landward. In contrast, adjacent uplands typically occupied by forests and agricultural fields have limited ability to resist the impacts of sea level rise. This portion of the coastal landscape consists of mostly salt intolerant plants, receives little mineral sediment deposition, and rarely builds elevation through the accumulation of soil organic matter. Thus, ghost forests- dead trees surrounded by marshland- are a prominent feature of many low-relief coastal landscapes, and represent a striking visual indicator of upland to wetland conversion. Here, we report preliminary results of several efforts designed to quantify rates and drivers of upland to wetland conversion in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Drone based canopy monitoring and ground-based seedling experiments suggest that ghost forests are created by episodic, storm-driven adult tree mortality paired with continuous seedling mortality. Preliminary comparisons between sediment cores and historical photographs from 5 sites in Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina suggest that modern coastal forest retreat is 2-10 times faster than late-Holocene retreat rates, and that rates have accelerated in most decades since the 1930's. Finally, historical T-Sheet maps suggest that approximately 100,000 acres (400 km2) of uplands have converted to wetlands in the Chesapeake region, and that about 1/3 of all present-day marsh was created by upland drowning since the late 19th Century. Together, these observations indicate rapid coastal transgression, where low-relief, terrestrial portions of the coastal landscape are perhaps more sensitive to sea level rise than better studied, more seaward portions.

Prognocean Plus: the Science-Oriented Sea Level Prediction System as a Tool for Public Stakeholders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Świerczyńska, M. G.; Miziński, B.; Niedzielski, T.

2015-12-01

The novel real-time system for sea level prediction, known as Prognocean Plus, has been developed as a new generation service available through the Polish supercomputing grid infrastructure. The researchers can access the service at https://prognocean.plgrid.pl/. Although the system is science-oriented, we wish to discuss herein its potentials to enhance ocean management studies carried out routinely by public stakeholders. The system produces the short- and medium-term predictions of global altimetric gridded Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) time series, updated daily. The spatial resolution of the SLA forecasts is 1/4° x 1/4°, while the temporal resolution of prognoses is equal to 1 day. The system computes the predictions of time-variable ocean topography using five data-based models, which are not computationally demanding, enabling us to compare their skillfulness in respect to physically-based approaches commonly used by different sea level prediction systems. However, the aim of the system is not only to compute the predictions for science purposes, but primarily to build a user-oriented platform that serves the prognoses and their statistics to a broader community. Thus, we deliver the SLA forecasts as a rapid service available online. In order to provide potential users with the access to science results the Web Map Service (WMS) for Prognocean Plus is designed. We regularly publish the forecasts, both in the interactive graphical WMS service, available from the browser, as well as through the Web Coverage Service (WCS) standard. The Prognocean Plus system, as an early-response system, may be interesting for public stakeholders. It may be used for marine navigation as well as for climate risk management (delineate areas vulnerable to local sea level rise), marine management (advise offered for offshore activities) and coastal management (early warnings against coastal floodings).

Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert

2007-01-01

Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold state (e.g., dramatic change in barrier evolution, such as segmentation or disintegration) for some barrier island systems. The likelihood of the potential coastal responses is expressed using standard terminology employed in climate change assessments (e.g., as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and CCSP). This assessment was based on the coastal geomorphology in its present condition and does not consider any coastal protection that might be undertaken in the future. The committee recognized that a variety of erosion mitigation measures have been implemented along developed portions of the coast and these are very likely to be applied in the future. It was also acknowledged that economics, political will, and other factors can drive decisions to implement these measures, and that such decisions cannot be predicted with confidence. The results of this assessment are depicted graphically on maps of the study area.

Time dependent wind fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chelton, D. B.

1986-01-01

Two tasks were performed: (1) determination of the accuracy of Seasat scatterometer, altimeter, and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer measurements of wind speed; and (2) application of Seasat altimeter measurements of sea level to study the spatial and temporal variability of geostrophic flow in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The results of the first task have identified systematic errors in wind speeds estimated by all three satellite sensors. However, in all cases the errors are correctable and corrected wind speeds agree between the three sensors to better than 1 ms sup -1 in 96-day 2 deg. latitude by 6 deg. longitude averages. The second task has resulted in development of a new technique for using altimeter sea level measurements to study the temporal variability of large scale sea level variations. Application of the technique to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current yielded new information about the ocean circulation in this region of the ocean that is poorly sampled by conventional ship-based measurements.

Organic matter content and particle size modifications in mangrove sediments as responses to sea level rise.

PubMed

Sanders, Christian J; Smoak, Joseph M; Waters, Mathew N; Sanders, Luciana M; Brandini, Nilva; Patchineelam, Sambasiva R

2012-06-01

Mangroves sediments contain large reservoirs of organic material (OM) as mangrove ecosystems produce large quantities and rapidly burial OM. Sediment accumulation rates of approximately 2.0 mm year(-1), based on (210)Pb(ex) dating, were estimated at the margin of two well-developed mangrove forest in southern Brazil. Regional data point to a relative sea level (RSL) rise of up to ∼4.0 mm year(-1). This RSL rise in turn, may directly influence the origin and quantity of organic matter (OM) deposited along mangrove sediments. Lithostratigraphic changes show that sand deposition is replacing the mud (<63 μm) fraction and OM content is decreasing in successively younger sediments. Sediment accumulation in coastal areas that are not keeping pace with sea level rise is potentially conducive to the observed shifts in particle size and OM content. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sea level and turbidity controls on mangrove soil surface elevation change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Fernanda Adame, Maria; Bennion, Vicki; Hayes, Matthew; Reef, Ruth; Santini, Nadia; Cahoon, Donald R.

2015-01-01

Increases in sea level are a threat to seaward fringing mangrove forests if levels of inundation exceed the physiological tolerance of the trees; however, tidal wetlands can keep pace with sea level rise if soil surface elevations can increase at the same pace as sea level rise. Sediment accretion on the soil surface and belowground production of roots are proposed to increase with increasing sea level, enabling intertidal habitats to maintain their position relative to mean sea level, but there are few tests of these predictions in mangrove forests. Here we used variation in sea level and the availability of sediments caused by seasonal and inter-annual variation in the intensity of La Nina-El Nino to assess the effects of increasing sea level on surface elevation gains and contributing processes (accretion on the surface, subsidence and root growth) in mangrove forests. We found that soil surface elevation increased with mean sea level (which varied over 250 mm during the study) and with turbidity at sites where fine sediment in the water column is abundant. In contrast, where sediments were sandy, rates of surface elevation gain were high, but not significantly related to variation in turbidity, and were likely to be influenced by other factors that deliver sand to the mangrove forest. Root growth was not linked to soil surface elevation gains, although it was associated with reduced shallow subsidence, and therefore may contribute to the capacity of mangroves to keep pace with sea level rise. Our results indicate both surface (sedimentation) and subsurface (root growth) processes can influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with sea level rise within the same geographic location, and that current models of tidal marsh responses to sea level rise capture the major feature of the response of mangroves where fine, but not coarse, sediments are abundant.

Sea level history in Beringia during the past 250,000 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hopkins, D.M.

1973-01-01

This paper attempts to relate current knowledge of sea-level history in Beringia to the Broecker-van Donk "Termination" concept of climatic and sea-level history. The Einahnuhtan transgression is thought to represent Termination III, which according to Broecker and van Donk, took place about 225,000 y.a. The Kotzebuan transgression is thought to represent a positive fluctuation that modulated the generally falling sea level during the ensuing 100,000 yr. Sea level probably fell to about -135 m in the Bering Sea area during the maximum phase of the penultimate glaciation. The two Pelukian shorelines probably represent Termination II (about 125,000 yr BP in the Broecker-van Donk chronology) and one of the two positive fluctuations that modulated the generally falling sea level of early Wisconsinan time, about 105,000 and 80,000 y.a. according to Broecker and van Donk. Another positive modulation brought sea level to at least -20 m, about 30,000 y.a. Sea level evidently fell to between -90 and -100 m during the late Wisconsinan regression, but a substantial part of the outer Bering shelf remained submerged. Submerged shoreline features at -38m, -30 m, -24 to -20 m, and -12 to -10 m represent stillstands or slight regressions that modulated Termination I, the late Wisconsinan, and early Holocene recovery of sea level. ?? 1973.

Evidence for the timing of sea-level events during MIS 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddall, M.

2005-12-01

Four large sea-level peaks of millennial-scale duration occur during MIS 3. In addition smaller peaks may exist close to the sensitivity of existing methods to derive sea level during these periods. Millennial-scale changes in temperature during MIS 3 are well documented across much of the planet and are linked in some unknown, yet fundamental way to changes in ice volume / sea level. It is therefore highly likely that the timing of the sea level events during MIS 3 will prove to be a `Rosetta Stone' for understanding millennial scale climate variability. I will review observational and mechanistic arguments for the variation of sea level on Antarctic, Greenland and absolute time scales.

Polar ice-sheet contributions to sea level during past warm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, A.

2015-12-01

Recent sea-level rise has been dominated by thermal expansion and glacier loss, but the contribution from mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions under future sustained warming. Due to limitations of existing ice sheet models and the lack of relevant analogues in the historical record, projecting the timing and magnitude of polar ice sheet mass loss in the future remains challenging. One approach to improving our understanding of how polar ice-sheet retreat will unfold is to integrate observations and models of sea level, ice sheets, and climate during past intervals of warmth when the polar ice sheets contributed to higher sea levels. A recent review evaluated the evidence of polar ice sheet mass loss during several warm periods, including interglacials during the mid-Pliocene warm period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, 5e (Last Interglacial), and 1 (Holocene). Sea-level benchmarks of ice-sheet retreat during the first of these three periods, when global mean climate was ~1 to 3 deg. C warmer than preindustrial, are useful for understanding the long-term potential for future sea-level rise. Despite existing uncertainties in these reconstructions, it is clear that our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, resulting in a conservative estimate for a global mean sea-level rise of 6 meters above present (or more). This presentation will focus on identifying the approaches that have yielded significant advances in terms of past sea level and ice sheet reconstruction as well as outstanding challenges. A key element of recent advances in sea-level reconstructions is the ability to recognize and quantify the imprint of geophysical processes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography, that lead to significant spatial variability in sea level reconstructions. Identifying specific ice-sheet sources that contributed to higher sea levels is a challenge that is currently hindered by limited field evidence at high latitudes. Finally, I will explore the concept of how increasing the quantity and quality of paleo sea level and ice sheet reconstructions can lead to improved quantification of contemporary changes in ice sheets and sea level.

Anthropogenic sea level rise and adaptation in the Yangtze estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Ruan, R.; Xu, G.; Zeng, G.; Zhu, J.; Dai, Z.; Gu, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.

2016-02-01

Sea level rise is a major projected threat of climate change. There are regional variations in sea level changes, depending on both naturally the tectonic subsidence, geomorphology, naturally changing river inputs and anthropogenic driven forces as artificial reservoir water impoundment within the watershed and urban land subsidence driven by ground water depletion in the river delta. Little is known on regional sea level fall in response to the channel erosion due to the sediment discharge decline by reservoir interception in the upstream watershed, and water level rise driven by anthropogenic measures as the land reclamation, deep waterway regulation and fresh water reservoir construction to the sea level change in estuaries. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened in various degrees. Shanghai belongs to those cities. Here we show that the anthropogenic driven sea level rise in the Yangtze estuary from the point of view of the continuous hydrodynamic system consisted of river catchment, estuary and coastal sea. Land subsidence is cited as 4 mm/a (2011-2030). Scour depth of the estuarine channel by upstream engineering as Three Gauge Dam is estimated at 2-10 cm (2011-2030). The rise of water level by deep waterway and land reclamation is estimated at 8-10 cm (2011-2030). The relative sea level rise will be speculated about 10 -16 cm (2011-2030), which these anthropogenic sea level changes will be imposed into the absolute sea level rise 2 mm/a and tectonic subsidence 1 mm/a measured in 1990s. The action guideline to the sea level rise strategy in the Shanghai city have been proposed to the Shanghai government as (1) recent actions (2012-2015) to upgrade the city water supply and drainage engineering and protective engineering; (2) interim actions (2016-2020) to improve sea level monitoring and early warning system, and then the special, city, regional planning considering sea level rise; (3) long term actions (2021-2030) to implement both the safety and the transformation and development of the city.

Precise mean sea level measurements using the Global Positioning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelecy, Thomas M.; Born, George H.; Parke, Michael E.; Rocken, Christian

1994-01-01

This paper describes the results of a sea level measurement test conducted off La Jolla, California, in November of 1991. The purpose of this test was to determine accurate sea level measurements using a Global Positioning System (GPS) equipped buoy. These measurements were intended to be used as the sea level component for calibration of the ERS 1 satellite altimeter. Measurements were collected on November 25 and 28 when the ERS 1 satellite overflew the calibration area. Two different types of buoys were used. A waverider design was used on November 25 and a spar design on November 28. This provided the opportunity to examine how dynamic effects of the measurement platform might affect the sea level accuracy. The two buoys were deployed at locations approximately 1.2 km apart and about 15 km west of a reference GPS receiver located on the rooftop of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography. GPS solutions were computed for 45 minutes on each day and used to produce two sea level time series. An estimate of the mean sea level at both locations was computed by subtracting tide gage data collected at the Scripps Pier from the GPS-determined sea level measurements and then filtering out the high-frequency components due to waves and buoy dynamics. In both cases the GPS estimate differed from Rapp's mean altimetric surface by 0.06 m. Thus, the gradient in the GPS measurements matched the gradient in Rapp's surface. These results suggest that accurate sea level can be determined using GPS on widely differing platforms as long as care is taken to determine the height of the GPS antenna phase center above water level. Application areas include measurement of absolute sea level, of temporal variations in sea level, and of sea level gradients (dominantly the geoid). Specific applications would include ocean altimeter calibration, monitoring of sea level in remote regions, and regional experiments requiring spatial and temporal resolution higher than that available from altimeter data.

Coastal wetlands, sea level, and the dimensions of geomorphic resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, Jonathan D.

2018-03-01

Geomorphic system resilience is often perceived as an intrinsic property of system structure and interactions but is also related to idiosyncratic place and history factors. The importance of geographical and historical circumstances makes it difficult to generate categorical statements about geomorphic resilience. However, network-based analyses of system structure can be used to determine the dynamical stability (= resilience) based on generally applicable relationships and to determine scenarios of stability or instability. These provide guidelines for assessing place and history factors to assess resilience. A model of coastal wetlands is analyzed, based on interactions among relative sea level, wetland surface elevation, hydroperiod, vegetation, and sedimentation. The system is generally (but not always) dynamically unstable and non-resilient. Because of gradients of environmental factors and patchy distributions of microtopography and vegetation, a coastal wetland landscape may have extensive local variations in stability/resilience and in the key relationships that trigger instabilities. This is illustrated by a case study where dynamically unstable fragmentation is found in two nearby coastal wetlands in North Carolina's Neuse River estuary-Otter Creek Mouth and Anderson Creek. Neither is keeping pace with relative sea level rise, and both show unstable state transitions within the wetland system; but locally stable relationships exist within the wetland systems.

Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

2018-02-01

This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

Implications of sea level rise scenarios on land use /land cover classes of the coastal zones of Cochin, India.

PubMed

Mani Murali, R; Dinesh Kumar, P K

2015-01-15

Physical responses of the coastal zones in the vicinity of Cochin, India due to sea level rise are investigated based on analysis of inundation scenarios. Quantification of potential habitat loss was made by merging the Land use/Land cover (LU/LC) prepared from the satellite imagery with the digital elevation model. Scenarios were generated for two different rates of sea level rise and responses of changes occurred were made to ascertain the vulnerability and loss in extent. LU/LC classes overlaid on 1 m and 2 m elevation showed that it was mostly covered by vegetation areas followed by water and urban zones. For the sea level rise scenarios of 1 m and 2 m, the total inundation zones were estimated to be 169.11 km(2) and 598.83 km(2) respectively using Geographic Information System (GIS). The losses of urban areas were estimated at 43 km(2) and 187 km(2) for the 1 m and 2 m sea level rise respectively which is alarming information for the most densely populated state of India. Quantitative comparison of other LU/LC classes showed significant changes under each of the inundation scenarios. The results obtained conclusively point that sea level rise scenarios will bring profound effects on the land use and land cover classes as well as on coastal landforms in the study region. Coastal inundation would leave ocean front and inland properties vulnerable. Increase in these water levels would alter the coastal drainage gradients. Reduction in these gradients would increase flooding attributable to rainstorms which could promote salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers and force water tables to rise. Changes in the coastal landforms associated with inundation generate concern in the background that the coastal region may continue to remain vulnerable in the coming decades due to population growth and development pressures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SeaWiFS calibration and validation plan, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hooker, Stanford B. (Editor); Firestone, Elaine R. (Editor); Mcclain, Charles R.; Esaias, Wayne E.; Barnes, William; Guenther, Bruce; Endres, Daniel; Mitchell, B. Greg; Barnes, Robert

1992-01-01

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) will be the first ocean-color satellite since the Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS), which ceased operation in 1986. Unlike the CZCS, which was designed as a proof-of-concept experiment, SeaWiFS will provide routine global coverage every 2 days and is designed to provide estimates of photosynthetic concentrations of sufficient accuracy for use in quantitative studies of the ocean's primary productivity and biogeochemistry. A review of the CZCS mission is included that describes that data set's limitations and provides justification for a comprehensive SeaWiFS calibration and validation program. To accomplish the SeaWiFS scientific objectives, the sensor's calibration must be constantly monitored, and robust atmospheric corrections and bio-optical algorithms must be developed. The plan incorporates a multi-faceted approach to sensor calibration using a combination of vicarious (based on in situ observations) and onboard calibration techniques. Because of budget constraints and the limited availability of ship resources, the development of the operational algorithms (atmospheric and bio-optical) will rely heavily on collaborations with the Earth Observing System (EOS), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) oceans team, and projects sponsored by other agencies, e.g., the U.S. Navy and the National Science Foundation (NSF). Other elements of the plan include the routine quality control of input ancillary data (e.g., surface wind, surface pressure, ozone concentration, etc.) used in the processing and verification of the level-0 (raw) data to level-1 (calibrated radiances), level-2 (derived products), and level-3 (gridded and averaged derived data) products.

Albian to Santonian carbon isotope excursions and faunal extinctions in the Canadian Western Interior Sea: Recognition of eustatic sea-level controls on a forebulge setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröder-Adams, Claudia J.; Herrle, Jens O.; Tu, Qiang

2012-12-01

The forebulge region of the Cretaceous Canadian Western Interior Sea (CWIS) was susceptible to subaerial exposure and marine erosion during sea level lowstands. The middle Albian to Santonian record as cored at Cold Lake, east-central Alberta, Canada documents numerous disconformities that are expressed in bioclastic concentration horizons and faunal extinctions and turnovers. Detailed comparison between a newly established δ13Corg. record measured on bulk sediment at Cold Lake and a combined δ13Ccarb. reference curve based on the Cretaceous English chalk and SE France hemipelagic marlstones highlights missing positive and negative δ13C excursions at the CWIS forebulge and thus missing sections that precisely corroborate with sequence boundaries. Disconformable boundaries correlate closely with global sea-level lowstands as established for the Cretaceous North Atlantic suggesting a pronounced eustatic influence on the CWIS forebulge setting. Sequence boundaries occur in the uppermost Middle Albian, lowermost Upper Albian, Albian/Cenomanian boundary, Cenomanian/Turonian boundary, middle Turonian to lower Coniacian and uppermost Middle Santonian, each followed by a positive δ13C excursion. Oceanic anoxic events 1d, 2 and 3 are recognized and linked to major faunal and floral assemblage changes. Of these the Albian/Cenomanian biotic turnover is the most severe in the CWIS marked by the total loss of Albian benthic foraminifera species. Causes of this benthic extinction might be linked to a period of anoxia (OAE 1d) during the latest Albian followed by sea-level controlled basin restriction.

Estimation of the Aral Sea state predictability based on the open data sources and the unique field observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izhitskiy, Alexander; Ayzel, Georgy; Zavialov, Peter; Kurbaniyazov, Abilgazi

2016-04-01

The Aral Sea, formerly one of the four largest lakes in the world, has lost over 90% of its volume during the dramatical dessication mainly caused by the severe alteration of water budget of the basin. Shrinkage of the Aral Sea resulted in profound changes of the lake's ecosystem, that became a subject for a number of publications based on a wide range of methods such as field observations, remote sensing data analysis and numerical modeling. However, by the early 21th century, the number of field studies decreased significantly due to almost complete cessation of navigation and displacement of the Aral's shoreline far away from roads and other infrastructure. Thus, only a small amount of field data (salinity, temperature, etc.) for different regions of the lake is available for the last two decades. On the other hand, a set of the open data sources (sea level variability, atmospheric reanalysis) were developed for the region. The main idea of the presented study is to estimate the possibility of prediction of the Aral Sea state using coupled system of basic geoanalysis tools, numerical modeling of hydrological cycle (both for sea and land-surface interactions with atmosphere) and state-of-art machine learning techniques. Firstly, available in situ data, obtained in the Aral Sea by Shirshov Institute and other researchers, are concerned as the "base points of state" for each year within the studied period. Secondly, consistent patterns in the interannual variability of all other available parameters, taken from the open data sources and numerical modeling predictions, are founded out. As a result, such an approach allows predicting the future state of sea basing on the possible climatic scenario.

Sedimentary noise and sea levels linked to land-ocean water exchange and obliquity forcing.

PubMed

Li, Mingsong; Hinnov, Linda A; Huang, Chunju; Ogg, James G

2018-03-08

In ancient hothouses lacking ice sheets, the origins of large, million-year (myr)-scale sea-level oscillations remain a mystery, challenging current models of sea-level change. To address this mystery, we develop a sedimentary noise model for sea-level changes that simultaneously estimates geologic time and sea level from astronomically forced marginal marine stratigraphy. The noise model involves two complementary approaches: dynamic noise after orbital tuning (DYNOT) and lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient (ρ 1 ). Noise modeling of Lower Triassic marine slope stratigraphy in South China reveal evidence for global sea-level variations in the Early Triassic hothouse that are anti-phased with continental water storage variations in the Germanic Basin. This supports the hypothesis that long-period (1-2 myr) astronomically forced water mass exchange between land and ocean reservoirs is a missing link for reconciling geological records and models for sea-level change during non-glacial periods.

Calcareous microfossil-based orbital cyclostratigraphy in the Arctic Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marzen, Rachel; DeNinno, Lauren H.; Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Microfaunal and geochemical proxies from marine sediment records from central Arctic Ocean (CAO) submarine ridges suggest a close relationship over the last 550 thousand years (kyr) between orbital-scale climatic oscillations, sea-ice cover, marine biological productivity and other parameters. Multiple paleoclimate proxies record glacial to interglacial cycles. To understand the climate-cryosphere-productivity relationship, we examined the cyclostratigraphy of calcareous microfossils and constructed a composite Arctic Paleoclimate Index (API) "stack" from benthic foraminiferal and ostracode density from 14 sediment cores. Following the hypothesis that API is driven mainly by changes in sea-ice related productivity, the API stack shows the Arctic experienced a series of highly productive interglacials and interstadials every ∼20 kyr. These periods signify minimal ice shelf and sea-ice cover and maximum marine productivity. Rapid transitions in productivity are seen during shifts from interglacial to glacial climate states. Discrepancies between the Arctic API curves and various global climatic, sea-level and ice-volume curves suggest abrupt growth and decay of Arctic ice shelves related to climatic and sea level oscillations.

Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Nicholls, Robert J; Marinova, Natasha; Lowe, Jason A; Brown, Sally; Vellinga, Pier; de Gusmão, Diogo; Hinkel, Jochen; Tol, Richard S J

2011-01-13

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m--the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

Perceptions of fishers to sea turtle bycatch, illegal capture and consumption in the San Ignacio-Navachiste-Macapule lagoon complex, Gulf of California, Mexico.

PubMed

Aguilar-González, Myrna E; Luna-González, Antonio; Aguirre, Alonso; Zavala-Norzagaray, Alan A; Mundo-Ocampo, Manuel; González-Ocampo, Héctor A

2014-01-01

In this study, 10% of all registered fishermen in the coastal towns of Navachiste in Sinaloa, in northwestern Mexico, answered a survey designed to collect data on their perceptions of the following topics: the impact of turtle meat consumption; human health; bycatch; illegal turtle fishing; the illegal sea turtle market; the local economy; pollution; environmental education; the success of protective legislation; and sea turtle-based ecotourism. Perceptions were analyzed using the fuzzy logic method through classification into 5 fuzzy membership sets: VL, very low; L, low; M, moderate; H, high; VH, very high. The 9 topics generated decision areas upon applying fuzzy inference that revealed the membership level of the answers in each fuzzy set. The economic potential of sea turtle-based ecotourism and the economic profitability of the illegal turtle meat market were perceived as VL. Conservation legislation was perceived as H, although inefficiently applied due to corruption. Ecotourism and impacts on sea turtles were perceived as VL, because they were deemed unprofitable activities at the individual and community levels. Environmental education was perceived as L, because it centers on nesting, hatching and releasing turtles and is directed at elementary and middle-school students. While fishers perceive a serious negative impact of fishing activities on sea turtles in the San Ignacio-Navachiste-Macapule area, they do not see themselves individually as part of the problem. Achieving sea turtle conservation in this region requires: suitable ecotourism infrastructure, government investments in promotion, and studies to estimate the minimum number of tourists needed to assure profitability. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.