Inception of a global atlas of Holocene sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Nicole; Rovere, Alessio; Engelhart, Simon; Horton, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Determining the rates, mechanisms and geographic variability of sea-level change is a priority science question for the next decade of ocean research. To address these research priorities, the HOLocene SEA-level variability (HOLSEA) working group is developing the first standardized global synthesis of Holocene relative sea-level data to: (1) estimate the magnitudes and rates of global mean sea-level change during the Holocene; and (2) identify trends in spatial variability and decipher the processes responsible for geographic differences in relative sea-level change. Here we present the preliminary efforts of the working group to compile the database, which includes sea-level index points and limiting data from a range of different indicators across seven continents from the Last Glacial Maximum to present. We follow a standard protocol that incorporates full consideration of vertical and temporal uncertainty for each sea-level index point, including uncertainties associated with the relationship of each indicator to past sea-level and the methods used to date each indicator. We describe the composition of the global database, identify gaps in data availability, and highlight our effort to create an online platform to access the data. These data will be made available in a special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews and archived on NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in early 2018. We also invite researchers who collect or model Holocene sea-level data to participate. Long-term, this effort will enhance predictions of 21st century sea-level rise, and provide a vital contribution to the assessment of natural hazards with respect to sea-level rise and coastal response.

The role of local and external factors in determining the interannual sea level variability of the Adriatic and Black Seas during the 20th century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scarascia, Luca; Lionello, Piero

2016-04-01

The Adriatic Sea and the Black Sea are two semienclosed basins connected to the Mediterranean Sea by the Otranto and the Bosporus straits, respectively. This work aims to reconstruction the sea level for both basins in the 20th century and to investigate main sources of interannual variability. Using 7 tide gauge timeseries located along the Adriatic coast and 5 along the Black Sea coast, provided by the PSMSL (Permanent service of mean sea level), a seamless sea level timeseries (1900-2009) has been obtained for each basin on the basis of statistical procedure involving PCA and Least Square Method. The comparison with satellite data in the period 1993 - 2009 confirms that these are reliable representations of the observed sea level for the whole basin, showing a great agreement with a correlation value of 0.87 and 0.72 for Adriatic and Black Sea respectively. The sea level has been decomposed in various contributions in order to analyze the role of the factors responsible for its interannual variability. The annual cycles of the local effect of pressure (inverse barometer effect IB), of the steric effect due to temperature and salinity variation and of the wind effect have been computed. The largest contribute for the Adriatic Sea is due to the wind, whilst inverse barometer effect plays a minor role and the steric effect seems to be almost negligible. For the Black Sea, on the contrary, wind effect is negligible, and the largest source of variability is due to the Danube river, which is estimated from the available discharge data of Sulina (one of the exits of the Danube delta. Steric and IB effects play both a minor role in this basin. A linear regression model, built considering as predictor the SLP gradient identified at large scale after having carried out the correlation analysis, is capable to explain a further percentage of variability (about 20-25%) of the sea level after subtracting all the factors considered above. Finally, residual sea levels show a positive correlation (0.42 about) revealing the likely action of a common boundary forcing associated to the mass exchange with Mediterranean sea. The present analysis is still unable to explain a non-negligible fraction of interannual variability of sea level, in particular for Black Sea. This is likely to a substantial extent due to uncertainties of hydrographic data caused by their irregular distribution in space and time and on the lack of regular records of past river discharge. This study is part of the activities of RISES-AM project (FP7-EU-603396).

Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2017-12-01

Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

Coastal sea level variability in the eastern English Channel: Potentialities for future SWOT applicability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turki, Imen; Laignel, Benoit; Chevalier, Laetitia; Costa, Stephane

2014-05-01

Scientists and engineers need to understand the sea level variability in order to provide better estimates of the sea level rise for coastal defense using tide gauges and radar altimetry missions. The natural limitation of the tide gauge records is their geographical sparsity and confinement to coastlines. The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be launched in 2015 over a period of 5 years and will be designated to address this issue. This research was carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Using a series of statistical analyses, we point to characterize the sea level variability in the eastern English Channel (western France) from four tide gauges in Dunkirk, Dieppe, Le Havre and Cherbourg for the period 1964-2012. To assess the extent to which tide gauge point observations represent tide gauge data, we compare tide gauge records to SWOT measurements in their vicinity. Results have shown that the bimodality of the sea level, provided by the distribution analysis, can be reproduced by SWOT measurements with an overestimation of both modes and also the extreme values. The rate of the linear regression was also overestimated from 1.7-4 mm/yr to 2.6-5.4 mm/yr. The continuous wavelet transform of sea level records has shown the large-scale variability of annual (1-year band) and interannual cycles (2-6- and 6-12-year bands) in sea level, which can be explained by oceanographic and hydrological factors. High frequency dynamics of the sea level variability at short time-scales were extracted from SWOT measurements. They provide a good survey of the surge events (band of 3-4 months) and the spring-neap tidal cycle (band of 28 days). Then, tide gauges should be used in conjunction with satellite data to infer the full time-scale variability. Further studies are needed to refine the SWOT applicability in coastal areas. Key words: coastal zone, sea level variability, tide gauges, virtual SWOT measurements

Sea Level Budget along the East Coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pease, A. M.; Davis, J. L.; Vinogradova, N. T.

2016-12-01

We analyzed tide gauge data, taken from 1955 to 2015, from 29 locations along the east coast of North America. A well-documented period of sea-level acceleration began around 1990. The sea level rate (referenced to epoch 1985.0) and acceleration (post-1990) are spatially and temporally variable, due to various physical processes, each of which is also spatially and temporally variable. To determine the sea-level budgets for rate and acceleration, we considered a number of major contributors to sea level change: ocean density and dynamics, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the inverted barometer effect, and mass change associated with the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The geographic variability in the budgets for sea-level rate is dominated by GIA. At some sites, GIA is the largest contributor to the rate. The geographic variability in the budgets for sea-level acceleration is dominated by ocean dynamics and density and GIS mass loss. The figure below shows budgets for sea-level rate (left) and acceleration (right) for Key West, Fla., (top) and The Battery in New York City (bottom). The blue represents values (with error bar shown) estimated from tide gauge observations, and the yellow represents the total values estimated from the individual model contributions (each in red, green, cyan, pink, and black). The estimated totals for rate and acceleration are good matches to the tide-gauge inferences. To achieve a reasonable fit, a scaling factor (admittance) for the combined contribution of ocean dynamics and density was estimated; this admittance may reflect the low spatial sampling of the GECCO2 model we used, or other problems in modeling coastal sea-level. The significant contributions of mass loss to the acceleration enable us to predict that, if such mass-loss continues or increases, the character of sea-level change on the North American east coast will change in the next 50-100 years. In particular, whereas GIA presently dominates the spatial variability of sea-level change, mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica will dominate it by 2050-2100. However, the long-term contribution of ocean dynamics and density remain more of a question.

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE PAGES

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2016-10-04

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

2017-01-01

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Singapore Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung

2013-04-01

Sea level in Singapore Strait is governed by various scale phenomena, from global to local. Global signals are dominated by the climate change and multi-decadal variability and associated sea level rise; at regional scale seasonal sea level variability is caused by ENSO-modulated monsoons; locally, astronomic tides are the strongest force. Tide gauge records in Singapore Strait are analyzed to derive local sea level trend, and attempts are made to attribute observed sea level variability to phenomena at various scales, from global to local. It is found that at annual scale, sea level anomalies in Singapore Strait are quasi-periodic, of the order of ±15 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are related to La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±9 cm. At multi-decadal scale, sea level in Singapore Strait has been rising at the rate 1.2-1.9 mm/year for the period 1975-2009, 2.0±0.3 mm/year for 1984-2009, and 1.3-4.7 mm/year for 1993-2009. When compared with the respective global trends of 2.0±0.3, 2.4, and 2.8±0.8 mm/year, Singapore Strait sea level rise trend was weaker at the earlier period and stronger at the recent decade.

Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA Climate Change Initiative for MSL closure budget studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, JeanFrancois; Cazenave, Anny; Ablain, Michael; Larnicol, Gilles; Benveniste, Jerome; Johannessen, Johnny; Timms, Gary; Andersen, Ole; Cipollini, Paolo; Roca, Monica; Rudenko, Sergei; Fernandes, Joana; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Quartly, Graham; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Meyssignac, Benoit; Scharffenberg, Martin

2016-04-01

Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV with regular updates, as required for climate studies. The program is now in its second phase of 3 year (following phase I during 2011-2013). The objectives are firstly to involve the climate research community, to refine their needs and collect their feedbacks on product quality. And secondly to develop, test and select the best algorithms and standards to generate an updated climate time series and to produce and validate the Sea Level ECV product. This will better answer the climate user needs by improving the quality of the Sea Level products and maintain a sustain service for an up-to-date production. This has led to the production of the Sea Level ECV which has benefited from yearly extensions and now covers the period 1993-2014. We will firstly present the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level Project. On the one hand, the major steps required to produce the 22 years climate time series are briefly described: collect and refine the user requirements, development of adapted algorithms for climate applications and specification of the production system. On the other hand, the product characteristics are described as well as the results from product validation, performed by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community. At last, new altimeter standards have been developed and the best one have been recently selected in order to produce a full reprocessing of the dataset (performed in 2016) adapted for climate studies. These new standards will be presented as well as other results regarding the improvement of the sea level estimation in the Arctic Ocean and in coastal areas for which preliminary results suggest that significant improvements can be achieved.

Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA climate change initiative for MSL closure budget studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, JeanFrancois; Benveniste, Jérôme

2016-07-01

Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV with regular updates, as required for climate studies. The program is now in its second phase of 3 year (following phase I during 2011-2013). The objectives are firstly to involve the climate research community, to refine their needs and collect their feedbacks on product quality. And secondly to develop, test and select the best algorithms and standards to generate an updated climate time series and to produce and validate the Sea Level ECV product. This will better answer the climate user needs by improving the quality of the Sea Level products and maintain a sustain service for an up-to-date production. This has led to the production of a first version of the Sea Level ECV which has benefited from yearly extensions and now covers the period 1993-2014. Within phase II, new altimeter standards have been developed and tested in order to reprocess the dataset with the best standards for climate studies. The reprocessed ECV will be released in summer 2016. We will present the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level Project. On the one hand, the major steps required to produce the 22 years climate time series are briefly described: collect and refine the user requirements, development of adapted algorithms for climate applications and specification of the production system. On the other hand, the product characteristics are described as well as the results from product validation, performed by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community. Efforts have also focused on the improvement of the sea level estimation in the Arctic Ocean and in coastal areas for which preliminary results suggest that significant improvements can be achieved.

What Causes the North Sea Level to Rise Faster over the Last Decade ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpytchev, Mikhail; Letetrel, Camille

2013-04-01

We combined tide gauge records (PSMSL) and satellite altimetry data (TOPEX/POSEIDON-JASON 1-2) to reconstruct the mean level of the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea Shelf (NS-NSS) over 1950-2012. The reconstructed NS-NSS mean sea level fluctuations reveal a pronounced interannual variability and a strong sea level acceleration since the mid-1990's. In order to understand the causes of this acceleration, the NS-NSS mean sea level was cross-correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. While the interannual variability of the mean sea level correlates well with the NAO/AO indices, the observed acceleration in the NS-NSS mean level is not linked linearly to the NAO/AO fluctuations. On the other hand, the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis of steric sea level variations in the eastern North Atlantic gives a dominant EOF pattern (55% of variance explained) that varies on a decadal scale very closely to the NS-NSS mean level flcutuations. Also, the amplification in the temporal amplitude of the dominant steric sea level EOF corresponds to the acceleration observed in the NS-NSS mean sea level signal. This suggests that decadal variations in the mean level of the North Sea - the Norwegian Sea Shelf reflect changes in the Subpolar Front currents (Rossby, 1996).

Consequences of sea level variability and sea level rise for Cuban territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, M.; Martínez, C. A.; Marzo, O.

2015-03-01

The objective of the present paper was to determine a first approximation of coastal zone flooding by 2100, taking into account the more persistent processes of sea level variability and non-accelerated linear sea level rise estimation to assess the main impacts. The annual linear rate of mean sea level rise in the Cuban archipelago, obtained from the longest tide gauge records, has fluctuated between 0.005 cm/year at Casilda and 0.214 cm/year at Siboney. The main sea level rise effects for the Cuban coastal zone due to climate change and global warming are shown. Monthly and annual mean sea level anomalies, some of which are similar to or higher than the mean sea level rise estimated for halfway through the present century, reinforce the inland seawater penetration due to the semi-daily high tide. The combination of these different events will result in the loss of goods and services, and require expensive investments for adaption.

Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Alexander, Michael A.; Yamagata, Toshio; Yuan, Dongliang; Ishii, Masayoshi; Pegion, Philip; Zheng, Jian; Hamlington, Benjamin D.; Quan, Xiao-Wei; Leben, Robert R.

2014-09-01

Previous studies have linked the rapid sea level rise (SLR) in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) since the early 1990s to the Pacific decadal climate modes, notably the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the north Pacific or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) considering its basin wide signature. Here, the authors investigate the changing patterns of decadal (10-20 years) and multidecadal (>20 years) sea level variability (global mean SLR removed) in the Pacific associated with the IPO, by analyzing satellite and in situ observations, together with reconstructed and reanalysis products, and performing ocean and atmosphere model experiments. Robust intensification is detected for both decadal and multidecadal sea level variability in the WTP since the early 1990s. The IPO intensity, however, did not increase and thus cannot explain the faster SLR. The observed, accelerated WTP SLR results from the combined effects of Indian Ocean and WTP warming and central-eastern tropical Pacific cooling associated with the IPO cold transition. The warm Indian Ocean acts in concert with the warm WTP and cold central-eastern tropical Pacific to drive intensified easterlies and negative Ekman pumping velocity in western-central tropical Pacific, thereby enhancing the western tropical Pacific SLR. On decadal timescales, the intensified sea level variability since the late 1980s or early 1990s results from the "out of phase" relationship of sea surface temperature anomalies between the Indian and central-eastern tropical Pacific since 1985, which produces "in phase" effects on the WTP sea level variability.

On the importance of Sri Lanka for sea-level variability along the west coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suresh, I.; Vialard, J.; Izumo, T.; Lengaigne, M.; Han, W.; McCreary, J. P., Jr.; Pillathu Moolayil, M.

2015-12-01

Earlier studies have illustrated the strong influence of remote forcing from the equator and the Bay of Bengal on the sea-level variability off the west coast of India, especially at the seasonal timescale. More recently, Suresh et al. [2013] demonstrated with a simple, linear, continuously-stratified (LCS) model that the equatorial zonal winds contribute to more than 60% of intraseasonal sea-level variability along the Indian west coast. In the present study, we quantify the contributions from various processes to the sea-level variability along the west coast of India at different timescales with the help of a LCS model through both idealized and realistic sensitivity experiments. We demonstrate that remote forcing dominates the sea-level variability along the west coast of India at intraseasonal to interannual timescales. Sri Lanka and the southern tip of India play an important role on Indian west coast sea-level variability at all timescales for two reasons: First, the geometry of the coast favors a strong alongshore wind-stress forcing of coastal Kelvin waves across timescales there. Second, Sri Lanka interacts with low-order meridional mode equatorial Rossby waves forced by equatorial winds or southern Bay of Bengal wind- stress curl. This interaction of coastal waveguide with equatorial waveguide creates a new pathway for the equatorial signals to arrive at the west coast of India, alternative to the "classical" coastal waveguide around the rim of the Bay of Bengal. Reference: Suresh, I., J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, W. Han, J. McCreary, F. Durand, and P. M. Muraleedharan (2013), Origins of wind-driven intraseasonal sea level variations in the North Indian Ocean coastal waveguide, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5740-5744, doi:10.1002/2013GL058312.

Sea level rise and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tay, Tze-Wei

2014-05-01

Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea, both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. As a result, sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); whilst long term sea level trend is coordinated by the global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability surrounding the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr and 2.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. Discounting for their vertical land movements (0.8 ± 2.6 mm/yr and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm/yr, respectively), their pure SLR rates are 1.6 ± 3.4 mm/yr and 1.8 ± 2.8 mm/yr, respectively, which are lower than the global tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian east coast in the range of ± 5 cm with very high correlation coefficient. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies in the Malacca Strait in the range of ± 2 cm with high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian - Indian Monsoon; while single annual cycle is noted in the remaining region, mostly due to East Asian - Western Pacific Monsoon. These results imply that a narrow topographic constriction off Singapore may separate different modes of annual and interannual sea level variability along coastline of Peninsular Malaysia.

The complex reality of sea-level rise in an atoll nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.

2012-12-01

Sea-level rise famously poses an existential threat to island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives. Yet as the global mean sea-level rises, the response of any one location at any given time will depend on the natural variability in regional sea-level and other impact of local human activities on coastal processes. As with climate warming, the state of an individual shoreline or the extent of flooding on a given day is not proof of a sea-level trend, nor is a global sea-level trend a good predictor of individual flooding or erosion events. Failure to consider the effect of natural variability and local human activity on coastal processes often leads to misattribution of flooding events and even some long-term shoreline changes to global sea level rise. Moreover, unverified attribution of individual events or changes to specific islets to sea level rise can inflame or invite scepticism of the strong scientific evidence for an accelerating increase in the global sea level due to the impacts of human activity on the climate system. This is particularly important in developing nations like Kiribati, which are depending on international financial support to adapt to rising sea levels. In this presentation, I use gauge data and examples from seven years of field work in Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of Kiribati, to examine the complexity of local sea level and shoreline change in one of the world's most vulnerable countries. First, I discuss how the combination of El Nino-driven variability in sea-level and the astronomical tidal cycle leads to flooding and erosion events which can be mistaken for evidence of sea-level rise. Second, I show that human modification to shorelines has redirected sediment supply, leading, in some cases, to expansion of islets despite rising sea levels. Taken together, the analysis demonstrates the challenge of attributing particular coastal events to global mean sea-level rise and the impact on decision-making. The presentation concludes with a discussion of the implications for attribution research, discourse about sea-level rise, and adaptation planning.

Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

2011-01-01

On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

Mechanisms of long-term mean sea level variability in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dangendorf, Sönke; Calafat, Francisco; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even; Richter, Kristin; Jensen, Jürgen

2015-04-01

We examine mean sea level (MSL) variations in the North Sea on timescales ranging from months to decades under the consideration of different forcing factors since the late 19th century. We use multiple linear regression models, which are validated for the second half of the 20th century against the output of a state-of-the-art tide+surge model (HAMSOM), to determine the barotropic response of the ocean to fluctuations in atmospheric forcing. We demonstrate that local atmospheric forcing mainly triggers MSL variability on timescales up to a few years, with the inverted barometric effect dominating the variability along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind (piling up the water along the coast) controlling the MSL variability in the south from Belgium up to Denmark. However, in addition to the large inter-annual sea level variability there is also a considerable fraction of decadal scale variability. We show that on decadal timescales MSL variability in the North Sea mainly reflects steric changes, which are mostly remotely forced. A spatial correlation analysis of altimetry observations and baroclinic ocean model outputs suggests evidence for a coherent signal extending from the Norwegian shelf down to the Canary Islands. This supports the theory of longshore wind forcing along the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic causing coastally trapped waves to propagate along the continental slope. With a combination of oceanographic and meteorological measurements we demonstrate that ~80% of the decadal sea level variability in the North Sea can be explained as response of the ocean to longshore wind forcing, including boundary wave propagation in the Northeast Atlantic. These findings have important implications for (i) detecting significant accelerations in North Sea MSL, (ii) the conceptual set up of regional ocean models in terms of resolution and boundary conditions, and (iii) the development of adequate and realistic regional climate change projections.

Long-memory and the sea level-temperature relationship: a fractional cointegration approach.

PubMed

Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Heres, David R; Martínez-Hernández, L Catalina

2014-01-01

Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level.

The Caribbean conundrum of Holocene sea level.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Luke; Mound, Jon

2014-05-01

In the tropics, pre-historic sea-level curve reconstruction is often problematic because it relies upon sea-level indicators whose vertical relationship to the sea surface is poorly constrained. In the Caribbean, fossil corals, mangrove peats and shell material dominate the pre-historic indicator record. The common approach to reconstruction involves the use of modern analogues to these indicators to establish a fixed vertical habitable range. The aim of these reconstructions is to find spatial variability in the Holocene sea level in an area gradually subsiding (< 1.2 mm yr-1) due the water loading following the deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet. We construct two catalogues: one of published Holocene sea-level indicators and the other of published, modern growth rates, abundance and coverage of mangrove and coral species for different depths. We use the first catalogue to calibrate 14C ages to give a probabilistic age range for each indicator. We use the second catalogue to define a depth probability distribution function (pdf) for mangroves and each coral species. The Holocene indicators are grouped into 12 sub-regions around the Caribbean. For each sub-region we apply our sea-level reconstruction, which involves stepping a fixed-length time window through time and calculating the position (and rate) of sea-level (change) using a thousand realisations of the time/depth pdfs to define an envelope of probable solutions. We find that the sub-regional relative sea-level curves display spatio-temporal variability including a south-east to north-west 1500 year lag in the arrival of Holocene sea level to that of the present day. We demonstrate that these variations are primarily due to glacial-isostatic-adjustment induced sea-level change and that sub-regional variations (where sufficient data exists) are due to local uplift variability.

Sea-level variability over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Robert; Horton, Benjamin; Kemp, Andrew; Engelhart, Simon; Little, Chris

2017-04-01

The Common Era (CE) sea-level response to climate forcing, and its relationship to centennial-timescale climate variability such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), is fragmentary relative to other proxy-derived climate records (e.g. atmospheric surface temperature). However, the Atlantic coast of North America provides a rich sedimentary record of CE relative sea level with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to inform mechanisms underlying regional and global sea level variability and their relationship to other climate proxies. This coast has a small tidal range, improving the precision of sea-level reconstructions. Coastal subsidence (from glacial isostatic adjustment, GIA) creates accommodation space that is filled by salt-marsh peat and preserves accurate and precise sea-level indicators and abundant material for radiocarbon dating. In addition to longer term GIA induced land-level change from ongoing collapse of the Laurentide forebulge, these records are ideally situated to capture climate-driven sea level changes. The western North Atlantic Ocean sea level is sensitive to static equilibrium effects from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as well as large-scale changes in ocean circulation and winds. Our reconstructions reveal two distinct patterns in sea-level during the CE along the United States Atlantic coast: (1) South of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Florida sea-level rise is essentially flat, with the record dominated by long-term geological processes until the onset of historic rates of rise in the late 19th century; (2) North of Cape Hatteras to Connecticut, sea level rise to maximum around 1000CE, a sea-level minimum around 1500 CE, and a long-term sea-level rise through the second half of the second millennium. The northern-intensified sea-level fall beginning 1000 is coincident with shifts toward persistent positive NAO-like atmospheric states inferred from other proxy records and is consistent with climate model simulations forced with sustained NAO-like heat fluxes. Changes in the wind-driven ocean circulation may also contribute to alongshore sea level variability over the CE. To reveal global mean sea level variability, we combine the salt-marsh data from North American Atlantic coast with tide-gauge records and other high resolution proxies from the northern and southern hemispheres. All reconstructions are from coasts that are tectonically stable and are based on four types of proxy archives (archaeological indicators, coral microatolls, salt marsh sediments and vermetid [mollusk] bioconstructions) that are best capable of capturing submeter-scale RSL changes. The database consists of reconstructions from Australasia (n = 2), Europe (n=5), Greenland (n = 3), North America (n = 6), the northern Gulf of Mexico (n = 3), the Mediterranean (n = 1), South Africa (n = 2), South America (n =2) and the South Pacific (n =3). We apply a noisy-input Gaussian process spatio-temporal modeling framework, which identifies a long-term falling global mean sea-level, interrupted in the middle of the 19th century by an acceleration yielding a 20th century rate of rise extremely likely (probability P = 0:95) faster than any previous century in the CE.

Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

2018-03-01

Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the observed orbit-related errors are further investigated. The main contributors on all timescales are uncertainties in Earth's time-variable gravity field models and on annual to interannual timescales discrepancies of the tracking station subnetworks, i.e. satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS).

Interannual Variability of Sea Level in Tropical Pacific during 1993-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Greatbatch, R. J.; Claus, M.

2016-12-01

More than 40 years ago, sea level variability in the tropical Pacific was being studied using linear shallow water models driven by observed estimates of the surface wind stress. At that time, the only available sea level data was from the sparse tide gauge record. However, with the advent of satellite data, there has been a revolution in the available data coverage for sea level. Here, a linear model, consisting of the first five baroclinic normal modes, and driven by ERA-Interim monthly wind stress anomalies, is used to investigate interannual variability in tropical Pacific sea level as seen in satellite altimeter data. The model output is fitted to the altimeter data along the equator, in order to derive the vertical profile for the wind forcing, and showing that a signature from modes higher than mode six cannot be extracted from the altimeter data. It is shown that the model has considerable skill at capturing interannual sea level variability both on and off the equator. The correlation between modelled and satellite-derived sea level data exceeds 0.8 over a wide range of longitudes along the equator and readily captures the observed ENSO events. Overall, the combination of the first, second and third and fifth modes can provide a robust estimate of the interannual sea level variability, the second mode being the most dominant. A remarkable feature of both the model and the altimeter data is the presence of a pivot point in the western Pacific on the equator. We show that the westward displacement of the pivot point from the centre of the basin is partly a signature of the recharge/discharge mechanism but is also strongly influenced by the fact that most of the wind stress variance along the equator is found in the western part of the basin. We also show that the Sverdrup transport plays no role in the recharge/discharge mechanism in our model.

Anthropogenic Influence on the Changes of the Subtropical Gyre Circulation in the South Pacific in the 20th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albrecht, F.; Pizarro, O.; Montecinos, A.

2016-12-01

The subtropical ocean gyre in the South Pacific is a large scale wind-driven ocean circulation, including the Peru-Chile Current, the westward South Equatorial Current, the East Australian Current, and the eastward South Pacific Current. Large scale ocean circulations play an essential role in the climate of the Earth over long and short term time scales.In the recent years a spin-up of this circulation has been recognized analyzing observations of sea level, temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface temperature and wind. Until now it is not clear whether this spin-up is decadal variability or whether it is a long-term trend introduced by anthropogenic forcing. This study aims to analyze whether and how anthropogenic forcing influences the position and the strength of the gyre in the 20th century. To determine that, yearly means of different variables of an ensemble of CMIP5 models are analyzed. The experiments 'historical' and 'historicalNat' are examined. The 'historical' experiment simulates the climate of the 20th century and the 'historicalNat' experiment covers the same time period, but only includes natural forcings. Comparing the outcomes of these two experiments is supposed to give information about the anthropogenic influence on the subtropical gyre of the South Pacific.The main variable we analyze is sea level change. This is directly related to the gyre circulation. The center of the gyre is characterized by a high pressure zone (high sea level) and the temporal and spatial variability of the sea level height field gives information about changes in the gyre circulation. The CMIP5 databank includes steric and dynamic sea level changes. Steric sea level, that is the contribution of temperature and salinity of the water, describes the major contribution to regional sea level change with respect to the global mean. Density changes contract or expand the water, which also changes the sea surface height. This does not only occur at the surface, but at all layers in the ocean. Sea level change thus integrates ocean variability throughout the depth of the ocean. Sea level simulations of the different experiments are compared using long-term trends, multi-year anomalies and EOF-Analysis. Changes in temperature and salinity in the deeper ocean are used to describe the development of the gyre below the surface.

Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean

PubMed Central

Tamisiea, Mark E.; Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Simon D. P.; Bingley, Richard M.

2014-01-01

The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. PMID:25157196

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE PAGES

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2017-06-05

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Relative Sea Level Trends Along the Coast of the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Calmant, S.; Papa, F.; Delebecque, C.; Islam, A. S.; Shum, C. K.

2016-12-01

In the coastal belt of the Bay of Bengal, the sea level rise is one of a major threat, linked to climate change, which drastically affects the livelihoods of millions of people. A comprehensive understanding of sea level trends and its variability in this region is therefore crucial and should help to anticipate the impacts of climate change and implement adaptation strategies. This region is bordered mostly by Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand. Here, we revisit the sea level changes in the Bay of Bengal region from tide gauges and satellite altimetry over the period 1993-2014. The 23 monthly mean tide gauge records, used in this study, are retrieved from PSMSL (15 records) and supplemented with Bangladeshi observations (8 records). We show that, over the satellite altimetry era, the sea level interannual/decadal variability is mainly due to ocean thermal expansion variability driven by IOD/ENSO events and their low frequency modulation. We focus on relative sea level rise at major coastal cities and try to separate the climatic signal (long term trend plus interannual/decadal variability) from local effects, in particular vertical land movements. Results from GPS are analysed where available. When no such data exist, vertical land movements are deduced from the combined use of tide gauge and altimetry data. While the analysis is performed over the whole region, a particular attention is given to the low-lyingBangladesh's coastal area.

Effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on sea level anomalies along the Gulf of Mexico coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Andrew J.; Griffin, Melissa L.; Morey, Steven L.; Smith, Shawn R.; O'Brien, James J.

2007-05-01

Analyses of daily sea level data show the impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Data from three stations (St. Petersburg, Florida, Pensacola, Florida, and Galveston, Texas), all of which have at least 50 years of daily observations, are processed to identify the interannual signals. Although low frequency (interannual) signals in the sea level anomaly time series are not clearly evident, a low frequency modulation of the extreme anomaly events (upper 10% or lower 10% of the distributions) is identified. Results show that sea level variability is seasonally dependent at all stations, with maximum variability in the winter months. In the eastern GOM, low sea level events in the winter months are more frequent during El Niño (warm phase) conditions when compared to a neutral ENSO phase. This is consistent with ENSO-related changes in the location where extratropical atmospheric low pressure systems form and in the tracks of these weather systems. The impacts of tropical systems in the summer through early fall months on coastal sea level in the GOM are shown by infrequent extreme high and low anomalies coinciding with individual storms. However, the number of storms affecting the data record from a particular sea level station is too small to confirm ENSO-related variability. Statistical methods are employed to demonstrate a significant link between extreme sea level anomalies in the GOM and ENSO during the October to March period.

Dynamic Topography and Sea Level Anomalies of the Southern Ocean: Variability and Teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armitage, Thomas W. K.; Kwok, Ron; Thompson, Andrew F.; Cunningham, Glenn

2018-01-01

This study combines sea surface height (SSH) estimates of the ice-covered Southern Ocean with conventional open-ocean SSH estimates from CryoSat-2 to produce monthly composites of dynamic ocean topography (DOT) and sea level anomaly (SLA) on a 50 km grid spanning 2011-2016. This data set reveals the full Southern Ocean SSH seasonal cycle for the first time; there is an antiphase relationship between sea level on the Antarctic continental shelf and the deeper basins, with coastal SSH highest in autumn and lowest in spring. As a result of this pattern of seasonal SSH variability, the barotropic component of the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) has speeds that are regionally up to twice as fast in the autumn. Month-to-month circulation variability of the Ross and Weddell Gyres is strongly influenced by the local wind field, and is correlated with the local wind curl (Ross: -0.58; Weddell: -0.67). SSH variability is linked to both the Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, dominant modes of southern hemisphere climate variability. In particular, during the strong 2015-2016 El Niño, a sustained negative coastal SLA of up to -6 cm, implying a weakening of the ASC, was observed in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. The ability to examine sea level variability in the seasonally ice-covered regions of the Southern Ocean—climatically important regions with an acute sparsity of data—makes this new merged sea level record of particular interest to the Southern Ocean oceanography and glaciology communities.

Influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure at the global-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, S.; Haigh, I. D.; Guimarães Nobre, G.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant signal of interannual climate variability. The unusually warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific drives interannual variability in both mean and extreme sea levels, which in turn may influence the probabilities and impacts of coastal flooding. We assess the influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure using daily timeseries from the Global Time and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016). As the GTSR timeseries do not include steric effects (i.e. density differences), we improve the GTSR timeseries by adding steric sea levels. Evaluation against observed sea levels shows that the including steric sea levels leads to a much better representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. We show that sea level anomalies occur during ENSO years with higher sea levels during La Niña in the South-Atlantic, Indian Ocean and the West Pacific, whereas sea levels are lower in the east Pacific. The pattern is generally inversed for El Niño. We also find an effect of ENSO in the number of people exposed to coastal flooding. Although the effect is minor at the global-scale, it may be important for flood risk management to consider at the national or sub national levels. Previous studies at the global-scale have used tide gauge observation to assess the influence of ENSO on extreme sea levels. The advantage of our approach over observations is that GTSR provides a consistent dataset with a full global coverage for the period 1979-2014. This allows us to assess ENSO's influence on sea level extremes anywhere in the world. Furthermore, it enables us to also calculate the impacts of extreme sea levels in terms of coastal flooding and exposed population. ReferencesMuis et al (2016) A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications.7:11969. doi:10.1038/ncomms11969.

Nature of global large-scale sea level variability in relation to atmospheric forcing: A modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukumori, Ichiro; Raghunath, Ramanujam; Fu, Lee-Lueng

1998-03-01

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equation model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to January 1994. The physical nature of sea level's temporal variability from periods of days to a year is examined on the basis of spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements. The study elucidates and diagnoses the inhomogeneous physics of sea level change in space and frequency domain. At midlatitudes, large-scale sea level variability is primarily due to steric changes associated with the seasonal heating and cooling cycle of the surface layer. In comparison, changes in the tropics and high latitudes are mainly wind driven. Wind-driven variability exhibits a strong latitudinal dependence in itself. Wind-driven changes are largely baroclinic in the tropics but barotropic at higher latitudes. Baroclinic changes are dominated by the annual harmonic of the first baroclinic mode and is largest off the equator; variabilities associated with equatorial waves are smaller in comparison. Wind-driven barotropic changes exhibit a notable enhancement over several abyssal plains in the Southern Ocean, which is likely due to resonant planetary wave modes in basins semienclosed by discontinuities in potential vorticity. Otherwise, barotropic sea level changes are typically dominated by high frequencies with as much as half the total variance in periods shorter than 20 days, reflecting the frequency spectra of wind stress curl. Implications of the findings with regards to analyzing observations and data assimilation are discussed.

Interactions of Estuarine Shoreline Infrastructure With Multiscale Sea Level Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ruo-Qian; Herdman, Liv M.; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Hummel, Michelle; Stacey, Mark T.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise increases the risk of storms and other short-term water-rise events, because it sets a higher water level such that coastal surges become more likely to overtop protections and cause floods. To protect coastal communities, it is necessary to understand the interaction among multiday and tidal sea level variabilities, coastal infrastructure, and sea level rise. We performed a series of numerical simulations for San Francisco Bay to examine two shoreline scenarios and a series of short-term and long-term sea level variations. The two shoreline configurations include the existing topography and a coherent full-bay containment that follows the existing land boundary with an impermeable wall. The sea level variability consists of a half-meter perturbation, with duration ranging from 2 days to permanent (i.e., sea level rise). The extent of coastal flooding was found to increase with the duration of the high-water-level event. The nonlinear interaction between these intermediate scale events and astronomical tidal forcing only contributes ˜1% of the tidal heights; at the same time, the tides are found to be a dominant factor in establishing the evolution and diffusion of multiday high water events. Establishing containment at existing shorelines can change the tidal height spectrum up to 5%, and the impact of this shoreline structure appears stronger in the low-frequency range. To interpret the spatial and temporal variability at a wide range of frequencies, Optimal Dynamic Mode Decomposition is introduced to analyze the coastal processes and an inverse method is applied to determine the coefficients of a 1-D diffusion wave model that quantify the impact of bottom roughness, tidal basin geometry, and shoreline configuration on the high water events.

Description and assessment of regional sea-level trends and variability from altimetry and tide gauges at the northern Australian coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharineiat, Zahra; Deng, Xiaoli

2018-05-01

This paper aims at providing a descriptive view of the low-frequency sea-level changes around the northern Australian coastline. Twenty years of sea-level observations from multi-mission satellite altimetry and tide gauges are used to characterize sea-level trends and inter-annual variability over the study region. The results show that the interannual sea-level fingerprint in the northern Australian coastline is closely related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, with the greatest influence on the Gulf Carpentaria, Arafura Sea, and the Timor Sea. The basin average of 14 tide-gauge time series is in strong agreement with the basin average of the altimeter data, with a root mean square difference of 18 mm and a correlation coefficient of 0.95. The rate of the sea-level trend over the altimetry period (6.3 ± 1.4 mm/yr) estimated from tide gauges is slightly higher than that (6.1 ± 1.3 mm/yr) from altimetry in the time interval 1993-2013, which can vary with the length of the time interval. Here we provide new insights into examining the significance of sea-level trends by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. This test is applied to assess if the trends are significant (upward or downward). Apart from a positive rate of sea-level trends are not statistically significant in this region due to the effects of natural variability. The findings suggest that altimetric trends are not significant along the coasts and some parts of the Gulf Carpentaria (14°S-8°S), where geophysical corrections (e.g., ocean tides) cannot be estimated accurately and altimeter measurements are contaminated by reflections from the land.

Spatio-temporal hierarchical modeling of rates and variability of Holocene sea-level changes in the western North Atlantic and the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashe, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Khan, N.; Horton, B.; Engelhart, S. E.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies over of both space and time. Prior to the instrumental period, the sea-level record depends upon geological reconstructions that contain vertical and temporal uncertainty. Spatio-temporal statistical models enable the interpretation of RSL and rates of change as well as the reconstruction of the entire sea-level field from such noisy data. Hierarchical models explicitly distinguish between a process level, which characterizes the spatio-temporal field, and a data level, by which sparse proxy data and its noise is recorded. A hyperparameter level depicts prior expectations about the structure of variability in the spatio-temporal field. Spatio-temporal hierarchical models are amenable to several analysis approaches, with tradeoffs regarding computational efficiency and comprehensiveness of uncertainty characterization. A fully-Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM), which places prior probability distributions upon the hyperparameters, is more computationally intensive than an empirical hierarchical model (EHM), which uses point estimates of hyperparameters, derived from the data [1]. Here, we assess the sensitivity of posterior estimates of relative sea level (RSL) and rates to different statistical approaches by varying prior assumptions about the spatial and temporal structure of sea-level variability and applying multiple analytical approaches to Holocene sea-level proxies along the Atlantic coast of North American and the Caribbean [2]. References: 1. N Cressie, Wikle CK (2011) Statistics for spatio-temporal data (John Wiley & Sons). 2. Kahn N et al. (2016). Quaternary Science Reviews (in revision).

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

Modal recovery of sea-level variability in the South China Sea using merged altimeter data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Haoyu; Chen, Ge

2015-09-01

Using 20 years (1993-2012) of merged data recorded by contemporary multi-altimeter missions, a variety of sea-level variability modes are recovered in the South China Sea employing three-dimensional harmonic extraction. In terms of the long-term variation, the South China Sea is estimated to have a rising sea-level linear trend of 5.39 mm/a over these 20 years. Among the modes extracted, the seven most statistically significant periodic or quasi-periodic modes are identified as principal modes. The geographical distributions of the magnitudes and phases of the modes are displayed. In terms of intraannual and annual regimes, two principal modes with strict semiannual and annual periods are found, with the annual variability having the largest amplitudes among the seven modes. For interannual and decadal regimes, five principal modes at approximately 18, 21, 23, 28, and 112 months are found with the most mode-active region being to the east of Vietnam. For the phase distributions, a series of amphidromes are observed as twins, termed "amphidrome twins", comprising rotating dipole systems. The stability of periodic modes is investigated employing joint spatiotemporal analysis of latitude/longitude sections. Results show that all periodic modes are robust, revealing the richness and complexity of sea-level modes in the South China Sea.

Sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

2014-06-01

Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. Resulting sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); while long-term sea level trend is related to global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 1.6 mm yr-1 and 2.7 ± 1.0 mm yr-1, respectively. Allowing for corresponding vertical land movements (VLM; 0.8 ± 2.6 mm yr-1 and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm yr-1), their absolute SLR rates are 3.2 ± 4.2 mm yr-1 and 3.6 ± 3.2 mm yr-1, respectively. For the common period 1993-2009, absolute SLR rates obtained from both tide gauge and satellite altimetry in Peninsular Malaysia are similar; and they are slightly higher than the global tendency. It further underlines that VLM should be taken into account to get better estimates of SLR observations. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian coast in the range of ±5 cm with a very high correlation. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies mainly in the Malacca Strait in the range of ±2 cm with a high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian-Indian Monsoon; whereas single annual cycle is noted along east coast of Peninsular Malaysia, mostly due to East Asian-Western Pacific Monsoon. These results imply that a narrow topographic constriction in Singapore Strait may separate different modes of annual and interannual sea level variability along coastline of Peninsular Malaysia.

Arterial blood gas reference values for sea level and an altitude of 1,400 meters.

PubMed

Crapo, R O; Jensen, R L; Hegewald, M; Tashkin, D P

1999-11-01

Blood gas measurements were collected on healthy lifetime nonsmokers at sea level (n = 96) and at an altitude of 1,400 meters (n = 243) to establish reference equations. At each study site, arterial blood samples were analyzed in duplicate on two separate blood gas analyzers and CO-oximeters. Arterial blood gas variables included Pa(O(2)), Pa(CO(2)), pH, and calculated alveolar-arterial PO(2) difference (AaPO(2)). CO-oximeter variables were Hb, COHb, MetHb, and Sa(O(2)). Subjects were 18 to 81 yr of age with 166 male and 173 female. Outlier data were excluded from multiple regression analysis, and reference equations were fitted to the data in two ways: (1) best fit using linear, squared, and cross-product terms; (2) simple equations, including only the variables that explained at least 3% of the variance. Two sets of equations were created: (1) using only the sea level data and (2) using the combined data with barometric pressure as an independent variable. Comparisons with earlier studies revealed small but significant differences; the decline in Pa(O(2)) with age at each altitude was consistent with most previous studies. At sea level, the equation that included barometric pressure predicted Pa(O(2)) slightly better than the sea level specific equation. The inclusion of barometric pressure in the equations allows better prediction of blood gas reference values at sea level and at altitudes as high as 1,400 meters.

Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean.

PubMed

Tamisiea, Mark E; Hughes, Chris W; Williams, Simon D P; Bingley, Richard M

2014-09-28

The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

Late Holocene sea level variability and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.; Farmer, Jesse R.; Marzen, R. E.; Thomas, E.; Varekamp, J.C.

2014-01-01

Pre-twentieth century sea level (SL) variability remains poorly understood due to limits of tide gauge records, low temporal resolution of tidal marsh records, and regional anomalies caused by dynamic ocean processes, notably multidecadal changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examined SL and AMOC variability along the eastern United States over the last 2000 years, using a SL curve constructed from proxy sea surface temperature (SST) records from Chesapeake Bay, and twentieth century SL-sea surface temperature (SST) relations derived from tide gauges and instrumental SST. The SL curve shows multidecadal-scale variability (20–30 years) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA), as well as the twentieth century. During these SL oscillations, short-term rates ranged from 2 to 4 mm yr−1, roughly similar to those of the last few decades. These oscillations likely represent internal modes of climate variability related to AMOC variability and originating at high latitudes, although the exact mechanisms remain unclear. Results imply that dynamic ocean changes, in addition to thermosteric, glacio-eustatic, or glacio-isostatic processes are an inherent part of SL variability in coastal regions, even during millennial-scale climate oscillations such as the MCA and LIA and should be factored into efforts that use tide gauges and tidal marsh sediments to understand global sea level rise.

A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

PubMed

Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

2016-02-12

Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Contemporary Sea Level Rise: An Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spada, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) encompasses a suite of geophysical phenomena accompanying the waxing and waning of continental-scale ice sheets. These involve the solid Earth, the oceans and the cryosphere both on short (decade to century) and on long (millennia) timescales. In the framework of contemporary sea-level change, the role of GIA is particular. In fact, among the processes significantly contributing to contemporary sea-level change, GIA is the only one for which deformational, gravitational and rotational effects are simultaneously operating, and for which the rheology of the solid Earth is essential. Here, I review the basic elements of the GIA theory, emphasizing the connections with current sea-level changes observed by tide gauges and altimetry. This purpose is met discussing the nature of the "sea-level equation" (SLE), which represents the basis for modeling the sea-level variations of glacial isostatic origin, also giving access to a full set of geodetic variations associated with GIA. Here, the SLE is employed to characterize the remarkable geographical variability of the GIA-induced sea-level variations, which are often expressed in terms of "fingerprints". Using harmonic analysis, the spatial variability of the GIA fingerprints is compared to that of other components of contemporary sea-level change. In closing, some attention is devoted to the importance of the "GIA corrections" in the context of modern sea-level observations, based on tide gauges or satellite altimeters.

Common behaviour of the Adriatic and Black Seas level in the 20th century as response to a Mediterranean forcing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scarascia, Luca; Stanica, Adrian; Dinu, Irina; Lionello, Piero

2017-04-01

The Adriatic and Black Seas are two marginal seas, both connected with the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, through the Otranto and Bosporus straits respectively. This contribution aims to evidence the fraction of the interannual sea level variability that is common to the two basins, likely an effect of the common forcing produced by Mediterranean Sea. In order to identify the common signal, the effect of the main local factors (wind, inverse barometer effect, steric effects, river runoff) determining the larger fraction of the interannual sea level variability have been identified and subtracted. Using 7 and 5 tide gauge timeseries located along the Adriatic and Black Sea coasts respectively, provided by PSMSL (Permanent Service of Mean Sea Level), two seamless timeseries representing the sea level of the basins from 1900 to 2009 have been produced. The comparison with satellite data, between 1993 and 2009, confirms that these reconstructions are representative of the actual sea level in the two basins (values are 0.87 for the Adriatic and 0.72 for the Black Sea). When considering local factors, for the Adriatic Sea the annual cycle of inverse barometer effect, steric contribution due to local temperature and salinity variations, and wind set-up have been computed. For the Black Sea, the wind factor (negligible in this case) has been replaced by the Danube river contribution estimated from the available discharge data of Sulina (one of the exits of the Danube delta). After subtracting these local factors from the observed sea level of each basin, the correlation between the residual time series amounts to 0.47, suggesting the presence of a common factor acting at Mediterranean scale, which can be attributed to the effect of the large-scale circulation on the mass exchange between the Mediterranean and the two local basins. The present analysis is still unable to explain a non-negligible fraction of interannual variability of sea level of the Black Sea. This is likely, to a substantial extent, due to uncertainties of hydrographic data caused by their irregular distribution in space and time and to the lack of regular records of past river discharge for most rivers contributing to the Black Sea.

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

Multi-linear regression of sea level in the south west Pacific as a first step towards local sea level projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Vandhna; Meyssignac, Benoit; Melet, Angélique; Ganachaud, Alexandre

2017-04-01

Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years is up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we attempt to reconstruct sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka, Noumea - Fiji and New Caledonia) as a mutiple-linear regression of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on interannual-to-decadal scale variability, and lower (including the global mean sea level rise) over the 1979-2014 period. Sea levels are taken from tide gauge records and the ORAS4 reanalysis dataset, and are expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes as a preliminary step. The key development in our methodology is using leading wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component. This is based on the knowledge that wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. The analysis is primarily based on correlation between local sea level and selected predictors, the dominant one being wind stress curl. In the first step, proxy boxes for wind stress curl are determined via regions of highest correlation. The proportion of sea level explained via linear regression is then removed, leaving a residual. This residual is then correlated with other locally acting potential predictors: halosteric sea level, the zonal and meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature. The statistically significant predictors are used in a multi-linear regression function to simulate the observed sea level. The method is able to reproduce between 40 to 80% of the variance in observed sea level. Based on the skill of the model, it has high potential in sea level projection and downscaling studies.

Revisiting sea level changes in the North Sea during the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Jürgen; Dangendorf, Sönke; Wahl, Thomas; Niehüser, Sebastian

2016-04-01

The North Sea is one of the best instrumented ocean basins in the world. Here we revisit sea level changes in the North Sea region from tide gauges, satellite altimetry, hydrographic profiles and ocean reanalysis data from the beginning of the 19th century to present. This includes an overview of the sea level chapter of the North Sea Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) complemented by results from more recent investigations. The estimates of long-term changes from tide gauge records are significantly affected by vertical land motion (VLM), which is related to both the large-scale viscoelastic response of the solid earth to ice melting since the last deglaciation and local effects. Removing VLM (estimated from various data sources such as GPS, tide gauge minus altimetry and GIA) significantly reduces the spatial variability of long-term trends in the basin. VLM corrected tide gauge records suggest a transition from relatively moderate changes in the 19th century towards modern trends of roughly 1.5 mm/yr during the 20th century. Superimposed on the long-term changes there is a considerable inter-annual to multi-decadal variability. On inter-annual timescales this variability mainly reflects the barotropic response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing with the inverted barometer effect dominating along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind forcing controlling the southeastern part of the basin. The decadal variability is mostly remotely forced and dynamically linked to the North Atlantic via boundary waves in response to long-shore winds along the continental slope. These findings give valuable information about the required horizontal resolution of ocean models and the necessary boundary conditions and are therefore important for the dynamical downscaling of sea level projections for the North Sea coastlines.

Regional variability of sea level change using a global ocean model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombard, A.; Garric, G.; Cazenave, A.; Penduff, T.; Molines, J.

2007-12-01

We analyse different runs of a global eddy-permitting (1/4 degree) ocean model driven by atmospheric forcing to evaluate regional variability of sea level change over 1993-2001, 1998-2006 and over the long period 1958-2004. No data assimilation is performed in the model, contrarily to previous similar studies (Carton et al., 2005; Wunsch et al., 2007; Koehl and Stammer, 2007). We compare the model-based regional sea level trend patterns with the one deduced from satellite altimetry data. We examine respective contributions of steric and bottom pressure changes to total regional sea level changes. For the steric component, we analyze separately the contributions of temperature and salinity changes as well as upper and lower ocean contributions.

Implications of multi-scale sea level and climate variability for coastal resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karamperidou, Christina; Engel, Victor; Lall, Upmanu; Stabenau, Erik; Smith, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

While secular changes in regional sea levels and their implications for coastal zone management have been studied extensively, less attention is being paid to natural fluctuations in sea levels, whose interaction with a higher mean level could have significant impacts on low-lying areas, such as wetlands. Here, the long record of sea level at Key West, FL is studied in terms of both the secular trend and the multi-scale sea level variations. This analysis is then used to explore implications for the Everglades National Park (ENP), which is recognized internationally for its ecological significance, and is the site of the largest wetland restoration project in the world. Very shallow topographic gradients (3–6 cm per km) make the region susceptible to small changes in sea level. Observations of surface water levels from a monitoring network within ENP exhibit both the long-term trends and the interannual-to-(multi)decadal variability that are observed in the Key West record. Water levels recorded at four long-term monitoring stations within ENP exhibit increasing trends approximately equal to or larger than the long-term trend at Key West. Time- and frequency-domain analyses highlight the potential influence of climate mechanisms, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on Key West sea levels and marsh water levels, and the potential modulation of their influence by the background state of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures. In particular, the Key West sea levels are found to be positively correlated with the NAO index, while the two series exhibit high spectral power during the transition to a cold Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The correlation between the Key West sea levels and the NINO3 Index reverses its sign in coincidence with a reversal of the AMO phase. Water levels in ENP are also influenced by precipitation and freshwater releases from the northern boundary of the Park. The analysis of both climate variability and climate change in such wetlands is needed to inform management practices in coastal wetland zones around the world.

Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice and sea level pressure: anthropogenic or natural variability? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, W. R.

2013-12-01

Statistically-significant changes in Antarctic sea ice cover and the overlying atmosphere have been observed over the last 30 years, but there is an open question of whether these changes are due to multi-decadal natural variability or an anthropogenically-forced response. A number of recent papers have shown that the slight increase in total sea ice cover is within the bounds of internal variability exhibited by coupled climate models in the CMIP5 suite. Modelled changes for the same time period generally show a decrease, but again with a magnitude that is within internal variability. However, in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice tends in the Antarctic are spatially highly heterogeneous, and consideration of the total ice cover may mask important regional signals. In this work, a robust ';fingerprinting' approach is used to show that the observed spatial pattern of sea ice trends is in fact outside simulated natural variability in west Antarctic, and furthermore that the CMIP5 models consistently show decreased ice cover in the Ross and Weddell Seas, sectors which in fact have an observed increase in cover. As a first step towards understanding the disagreement between models and observations, modelled sea level pressure trends are analysed using and optimal fingerprinting approach, to identify whether atmospheric deficiencies in the models can explain the model-observation discrepancy.

Dynamic and static equilibrium sea level effects of Greenland Ice Sheet melt: An assessment of partially-coupled idealized water hosing experiments (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Griffies, S. M.; Yin, J.; Hay, C. C.; Stouffer, R. J.

2010-12-01

Regional sea level can deviate from mean global sea level because of both dynamic sea level (DSL) effects, resulting from oceanic and atmospheric circulation and temperature and salinity distributions, and changes in the static equilibrium (SE) sea level configuration, produced by the gravitational, elastic, and rotational effects of mass redistribution. Both effects will contribute to future sea level change, but because they are studied by two different subdisciplines -- climate modeling and glacial rebound modeling -- projections that attempt to combine both have to date been scarce. To compare their magnitude, we simulated the effects of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt by conducting idealized North Atlantic "water-hosing" experiments in a climate model unidirectionally coupled to a SE sea level model. At current rates of GIS melt, freshwater hosing experiments in fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) do not yield clear DSL trends but do generate DSL variability; comparing that variability to expected static equilibrium "fingerprints" suggests that at least about 40 years of observations are needed to detect the "fingerprints" of ice sheet melt at current Greenland melt rates of about 0.3 mm equivalent sea level (esl)/year. Accelerated melt rates of about 2--6 mm esl/y, as may occur later in the century, should be detectable above background DSL variability within less than a decade of their onset. At these higher melt rates, AOGCMs do yield clear DSL trends. In the GFDL CM 2.1 model, DSL trends are strongest in the western North Atlantic, while SE effects come to dominate in most of the ocean when melt exceeds about 20 cm esl.

A Poor Relationship Between Sea Level and Deep-Water Sand Delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Ashley D.; Baumgardner, Sarah E.; Sun, Tao; Granjeon, Didier

2018-08-01

The most commonly cited control on delivery of sand to deep water is the rate of relative sea-level fall. The rapid rate of accommodation loss on the shelf causes sedimentation to shift basinward. Field and experimental numerical modeling studies have shown that deep-water sand delivery can occur during any stage of relative sea level position and across a large range of values of rate of relative sea-level change. However, these studies did not investigate the impact of sediment transport efficiency on the relationship between rate of relative sea-level change and deep-water sand delivery rate. We explore this relationship using a deterministic nonlinear diffusion-based numerical stratigraphic forward model. We vary across three orders of magnitude the diffusion coefficient value for marine settings, which controls sediment transport efficiency. We find that the rate of relative sea-level change can explain no more than 1% of the variability in deep-water sand delivery rates, regardless of sediment transport efficiency. Model results show a better correlation with relative sea level, with up to 55% of the variability in deep water sand delivery rates explained. The results presented here are consistent with studies of natural settings which suggest stochastic processes such as avulsion and slope failure, and interactions among such processes, may explain the remaining variance. Relative sea level is a better predictor of deep-water sand delivery than rate of relative sea-level change because it is the sea-level fall itself which promotes sand delivery, not the rate of the fall. We conclude that the poor relationship between sea level and sand delivery is not an artifact of the modeling parameters but is instead due to the inadequacy of relative sea level and the rate of relative sea-level change to fully describe the dimensional space in which depositional systems reside. Subsequently, sea level itself is unable to account for the interaction of multiple processes that contribute to sand delivery to deep water.

A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turki, Imen; Laignel, Benoit; Kakeh, Nabil; Chevalier, Laetitia; Costa, Stephane

2015-04-01

This research is carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Here, a new hybrid model is implemented for filling gaps and forecasting the hourly sea level variability by combining classical harmonic analyses to high statistical methods to reproduce the deterministic and stochastic processes, respectively. After simulating the mean trend sea level and astronomical tides, the nontidal residual surges are investigated using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methods by two ways: (1) applying a purely statistical approach and (2) introducing the SLP in ARMA as a main physical process driving the residual sea level. The new hybrid model is applied to the western Atlantic sea and the eastern English Channel. Using ARMA model and considering the SLP, results show that the hourly sea level observations of gauges with are well reproduced with a root mean square error (RMSE) ranging between 4.5 and 7 cm for 1 to 30 days of gaps and an explained variance more than 80 %. For larger gaps of months, the RMSE reaches 9 cm. The negative and the positive extreme values of sea levels are also well reproduced with a mean explained variance between 70 and 85 %. The statistical behavior of 1-year modeled residual components shows good agreements with observations. The frequency analysis using the discrete wavelet transform illustrate strong correlations between observed and modeled energy spectrum and the bands of variability. Accordingly, the proposed model presents a coherent, simple, and easy tool to estimate the total sea level at timescales from days to months. The ARMA model seems to be more promising for filling gaps and estimating the sea level at larger scales of years by introducing more physical processes driving its stochastic variability.

The role of atmospheric circulation patterns on short-term sea-level fluctuations along the eastern seaboard of the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Lee, C. C.; Pirhalla, D.; Ransi, V.

2017-12-01

Sea-level fluctuations over time are a product of short-term weather events, as well as long-term secular trends in sea-level rise. With sea-levl rise, these fluctuations increasingly have substantial impacts upon coastal ecosystems and impact society through coastal flooding events. In this research, we assess the impact of short-term events, combined with sea-level rise, through synoptic climatological analysis, exploring whether circulation pattern identification can be used to enhance probabilistic forecasts of flood likelihood. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were created for two discrete atmospheric variables: 700-hPa geopotential height (700z) and sea-level pressure (SLP). For each variable, a SOM array of patterns was created based on data spanning 25°-50°N and 60°-90°W for the period 1979-2014. Sea-level values were derived from tidal gauges between Cape May, New Jersey and Charleston, South Carolina, along the mid-Atlantic coast of the US. Both anomalous sea-level values, as well as nuisance flood occurrence (defined using the local gauge threshold), were assessed. Results show the impacts of both the inverted barometer effect as well as surface wind forcing on sea levels. With SLP, higher sea levels are associated with either patterns that were indicative of on-shore flow or cyclones. At 700z, ridges situated along the east coast are associated with higher sea levels. As the SOM matrix arranges atmospheric patterns in a continuum, the nodes of each SOM show a clear spatial pattern in terms of anomalous sea level, including some significant sea-level anomalies associated with relatively ambiguous pressure patterns. Further, multi-day transitions are also analyzed, showing rapidly deepening cyclones, or persistent onshore flow, can be associated with the greatest likelihood of nuisance floods. Results are weaker with 700z than SLP; however, in some cases, it is clear that the mid-tropospheric circulation can modulate the connection between sea-level anomalies and surface circulation.

Uncovering the Anthropogenic Sea Level Change using an Improved Sea Level Reconstruction for the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, P.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Han, W.

2016-12-01

Despite having some of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable coastal regions, sea level (SL) variability in the Indian Ocean (IO) has received considerably less attention than the Pacific Ocean. Differentiating the internal variability from the long-term trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) at decadal time-scales is vital for planning and mitigation efforts in the IO region. Understanding the dynamics of internal and anthropogenic SL change is essential for understanding the dynamic pathways that link the IO basin to terrestrial climates world-wide. With a sparse pre-satellite observational record of the IO, the Indo-Pacific internal climate variability is difficult to represent accurately. However, an improved representation of pre-satellite SL variability can be achieved by using a multivariate reconstruction technique. By using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) that can capture time-varying spatial patterns, gaps in the historical record when observations are sparse are filled using spatial relationships from time periods when the observational network is dense. This reconstruction method combines SL data and sea surface temperature (SST) to create a SL reconstruction that spans a period from 1900 to present, long enough to study climate signals over interannual to decadal time scales. This study aims at estimating the component of SL rise that relates to anthropogenic forcing by identifying and removing the fraction related to internal variability. An improved understanding of how the internal climate variability can affect the IO SL trend and variability, will provide an insight into the future SL changes. It is also important to study links between SL and climate variability in the past to understand how SL will respond to similar climatic events in the future and if this response will be influenced by the changing climate.

Intraseasonal variability and tides in Makassar Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susanto, R. Dwi; Gordon, Arnold L.; Sprintall, Janet; Herunadi, Bambang

2000-05-01

Intraseasonal variability and tides along the Makassar Strait, the major route of Indonesian throughflow, are investigated using spectral and time-frequency analyses which are applied to sea level, wind and mooring data. Semidiurnal and diurnal tides are dominant features, with higher (lower) semidiurnal (diurnal) energy in the north compared to the south. Sea levels and mooring data display intraseasonal variability which are probably a response to remotely forced Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean through Lombok Strait and to Rossby waves from the Pacific Ocean. Sea levels in Tarakan and Balikpapan and Makassar mooring velocities reveal intraseasonal features with periods of 48-62 days associated with Rossby waves from the Sulawesi Sea. Kelvin wave features with periods of 67-100 days are seen in Bali (Lombok Strait), at the mooring sites and in Balikpapan, however, they are not seen in Tarakan, which implies that these waves diminish after passing through the Makassar Strait.

Wind-induced interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and surface salinity on the Northwest Atlantic shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Fratantoni, Paula S.; Chen, Changsheng; Hare, Jonathan A.; Davis, Cabell S.; Beardsley, Robert C.

2014-04-01

In this study, we examine the importance of regional wind forcing in modulating advective processes and hydrographic properties along the Northwest Atlantic shelf, with a focus on the Nova Scotian Shelf (NSS)-Gulf of Maine (GoM) region. Long-term observational data of alongshore wind stress, sea level slope, and along-shelf flow are analyzed to quantify the relationship between wind forcing and hydrodynamic responses on interannual time scales. Additionally, a simplified momentum balance model is used to examine the underlying mechanisms. Our results show significant correlation among the observed interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and alongshore wind stress in the NSS-GoM region. A mechanism is suggested to elucidate the role of wind in modulating the sea level slope and along-shelf flow: stronger southwesterly (northeastward) winds tend to weaken the prevailing southwestward flow over the shelf, building sea level in the upstream Newfoundland Shelf region, whereas weaker southwesterly winds allow stronger southwestward flow to develop, raising sea level in the GoM region. The wind-induced flow variability can influence the transport of low-salinity water from the Gulf of St. Lawrence to the GoM, explaining interannual variations in surface salinity distributions within the region. Hence, our results offer a viable mechanism, besides the freshening of remote upstream sources, to explain interannual patterns of freshening in the GoM.

Sea-level change during the last 2500 years in New Jersey, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kemp, Andrew C.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Vane, Christopher H.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Corbett, D. Reide; Engelhart, Simon E.; Anisfeld, Shimon C.; Parnell, Andrew C.; Cahill, Niamh

2013-01-01

Relative sea-level changes during the last ∼2500 years in New Jersey, USA were reconstructed to test if late Holocene sea level was stable or included persistent and distinctive phases of variability. Foraminifera and bulk-sediment δ13C values were combined to reconstruct paleomarsh elevation with decimeter precision from sequences of salt-marsh sediment at two sites using a multi-proxy approach. The additional paleoenvironmental information provided by bulk-sediment δ13C values reduced vertical uncertainty in the sea-level reconstruction by about one third of that estimated from foraminifera alone using a transfer function. The history of sediment deposition was constrained by a composite chronology. An age–depth model developed for each core enabled reconstruction of sea level with multi-decadal resolution. Following correction for land-level change (1.4 mm/yr), four successive and sustained (multi-centennial) sea-level trends were objectively identified and quantified (95% confidence interval) using error-in-variables change point analysis to account for age and sea-level uncertainties. From at least 500 BC to 250 AD, sea-level fell at 0.11 mm/yr. The second period saw sea-level rise at 0.62 mm/yr from 250 AD to 733 AD. Between 733 AD and 1850 AD, sea level fell at 0.12 mm/yr. The reconstructed rate of sea-level rise since ∼1850 AD was 3.1 mm/yr and represents the most rapid period of change for at least 2500 years. This trend began between 1830 AD and 1873 AD. Since this change point, reconstructed sea-level rise is in agreement with regional tide-gauge records and exceeds the global average estimate for the 20th century. These positive and negative departures from background rates demonstrate that the late Holocene sea level was not stable in New Jersey.

Atmospheric forcing on the seasonal variability of sea level at Cochin, southwest coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivas, K.; Dinesh Kumar, P. K.

2006-07-01

The seasonal cycles of some atmospheric parameters at Cochin (southwest coast of India) have been studied with a specific emphasis on the role played by them in forcing the seasonal sea level. Equatorward along-shore wind stress as well as equatorward volume transport by coastal currents along the Indian peninsula could play an important role in the sea level low during the premonsoon and southwest monsoon seasons. During postmonsoon season, along-shore wind stress plays no major role in the high sea level whereas this could be due to the poleward volume transport by the coastal along-shore currents. Atmospheric pressure and river discharge do not seem to influence much the sea level during the southwest monsoon period, even though the river discharge during that period is considerable. The sea level was minimal during the southwest monsoon season, when the river discharge was at its annual maximum. The difference between the seasonal march of observed and pressure corrected sea level (CSL) was not significant for the study region. Harmonic analysis of the climatological data on the various parameters revealed that air temperature is the only parameter with a dominance of the semi-annual over the annual cycle. Cross-shore wind stress indicated strong interannual variability whereas relative density showed strong seasonal variability. The climatological seasonal cycles of CSL at eight other tide gauge stations along the west coast of the Indian subcontinent are also examined, to assess the role of various forcings on the seasonal sea level cycle. The signatures of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon could be seen in some of the parameters (SST, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, along-shore wind stress, relative density and sea level). The signature of ENSO was particularly strong in the case of atmospheric pressure followed by relative density, the variance accounted by the relationship being 47% and 16%, respectively.

An Ongoing Shift in Pacific Ocean Sea Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheon, S. H.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Merrifield, M. A.; Nerem, R. S.; Leben, R. R.; Kim, K. Y.

2016-12-01

According to the satellite altimeter data, local sea level trends have shown considerable diversity spatially as well as temporally. In particular, dramatic changes in sea level in the Pacific have been observed throughout the altimeter record, with high trends in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and comparatively lower trends in the eastern Pacific. In recent years, however, a shift appears to be occurring, with falling trends in the (WTP) and rising trends in the eastern tropical and northeastern Pacific (ETP and NEP). From a planning perspective, it is important to figure out whether these sharp changes are part of a short-term shift or the beginning of a longer-term change in sea level. In this study, we distinguish the origins of the recent shift in Pacific Ocean sea level. Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis is applied to separate the properties of the recent sea level change in the Pacific Ocean. From the CSEOF analysis results, we point out two dominant modes of sea level shift in the Pacific Ocean. The first mode is related to the biennial oscillation associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the other is related to lower-frequency variability with a strong signal in the northern Pacific. Considering a relatively high correlation between recent sea level change and the low-frequency mode, we suggest that the low-frequency mode has played a dominant role in the sea level shift in the Pacific Ocean. Using a reconstructed sea level dataset, we examine the variability of this low-frequency mode in the past, and find similar periods of dramatic sea level change in the Pacific. Based on the sea level record of the last five years and according to the analysis, we conclude that in the coming decades, higher sea level trends off the U.S. West Coast should be expected, while reduced trends in the WTP will likely be observed.

Importance of coastal change variables in determining vulnerability to sea- and lake-level change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, E.A.; Thieler, E.R.; Williams, S.J.

2010-01-01

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey began conducting scientific assessments of coastal vulnerability to potential future sea- and lake-level changes in 22 National Park Service sea- and lakeshore units. Coastal park units chosen for the assessment included a variety of geological and physical settings along the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Alaska, Caribbean, and Great Lakes shorelines. This research is motivated by the need to understand and anticipate coastal changes caused by accelerating sea-level rise, as well as lake-level changes caused by climate change, over the next century. The goal of these assessments is to provide information that can be used to make long-term (decade to century) management decisions. Here we analyze the results of coastal vulnerability assessments for several coastal national park units. Index-based assessments quantify the likelihood that physical changes may occur based on analysis of the following variables: tidal range, ice cover, wave height, coastal slope, historical shoreline change rate, geomorphology, and historical rate of relative sea- or lake-level change. This approach seeks to combine a coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and it provides a measure of the system's potential vulnerability to the effects of sea- or lake-level change. Assessments for 22 park units are combined to evaluate relationships among the variables used to derive the index. Results indicate that Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico parks have the highest vulnerability rankings relative to other park regions. A principal component analysis reveals that 99% of the index variability can be explained by four variables: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, water-level change rate, and mean significant wave height. Tidal range, ice cover, and historical shoreline change are not as important when the index is evaluated at large spatial scales (thousands of kilometers). ?? 2010 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

Analysis of the nonlinearity of Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability using spherical PDFs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jajcay, Nikola; Hannachi, Abdel

2013-04-01

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is a high-dimensional and highly complex phenomenon affecting more than one fifth of the world population. The intraseasonal component of the ASM undergoes periods of active and break phases associated respectively with enhanced and reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and surroundings. In this paper the nonlinear nature of the intraseasonal monsoon variability is investigated using the leading EOFs of ERA-40 sea level pressure reanalyses field over the ASM region. The probability density function is then computed in spherical coordinates using a Epaneshnikov kernel method. Three significant modes are identified. They represent respectively (i) East - West mode with above normal sea level pressure over East China sea and below normal pressure over Himalayas, (ii) mode with above normal sea level pressure over East China sea (without compensating centre of opposite sign as in (i)) and (iii) mode with below normal sea level pressure over East China sea (same as (ii) but with opposite sign). Relationship to large scale flow are also investigated and discussed.

New evidence for "far-field" Holocene sea level oscillations and links to global climate records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Clark, T. R.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Zhao, J.-x.

2018-04-01

Rising sea level in the coming century is of significant concern, yet predicting relative sea level change in response to eustatic sea level variability is complex. Potential analogues are provided by the recent geological past but, until recently, many sea level reconstructions have been limited to millennial scale interpretations due to age uncertainties and paucity in proxy derived records. Here we present a sea level history for the tectonically stable "far-field" Great Barrier Reef, Australia, derived from 94 high precision uranium-thorium dates of sub-fossil coral microatolls. Our results provide evidence for at least two periods of relative sea level instability during the Holocene. These sea level oscillations are broadly synchronous with Indo-Pacific negative sea surface temperature anomalies, rapid global cooling events and glacial advances. We propose that the pace and magnitude of these oscillations are suggestive of eustatic/thermosteric processes operating in conjunction with regional climatic controls.

High-resolution IP25-based reconstruction of sea-ice variability in the western North Pacific and Bering Sea during the past 18,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méheust, Marie; Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten; Max, Lars; Riethdorf, Jan-Rainer

2016-04-01

Due to its strong influence on heat and moisture exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, sea ice is an essential component of the global climate system. In the context of its alarming decrease in terms of concentration, thickness and duration, understanding the processes controlling sea-ice variability and reconstructing paleo-sea-ice extent in polar regions have become of great interest for the scientific community. In this study, for the first time, IP25, a recently developed biomarker sea-ice proxy, was used for a high-resolution reconstruction of the sea-ice extent and its variability in the western North Pacific and western Bering Sea during the past 18,000 years. To identify mechanisms controlling the sea-ice variability, IP25 data were associated with published sea-surface temperature as well as diatom and biogenic opal data. The results indicate that a seasonal sea-ice cover existed during cold periods (Heinrich Stadial 1 and Younger Dryas), whereas during warmer intervals (Bølling-Allerød and Holocene) reduced sea ice or ice-free conditions prevailed in the study area. The variability in sea-ice extent seems to be linked to climate anomalies and sea-level changes controlling the oceanographic circulation between the subarctic Pacific and the Bering Sea, especially the Alaskan Stream injection though the Aleutian passes.

Evidence for the timing of sea-level events during MIS 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddall, M.

2005-12-01

Four large sea-level peaks of millennial-scale duration occur during MIS 3. In addition smaller peaks may exist close to the sensitivity of existing methods to derive sea level during these periods. Millennial-scale changes in temperature during MIS 3 are well documented across much of the planet and are linked in some unknown, yet fundamental way to changes in ice volume / sea level. It is therefore highly likely that the timing of the sea level events during MIS 3 will prove to be a `Rosetta Stone' for understanding millennial scale climate variability. I will review observational and mechanistic arguments for the variation of sea level on Antarctic, Greenland and absolute time scales.

Relative sea level trend and variability in the central Mediterranean in the time span 1872-2014 from tide gauge data: implications for future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anzidei, Marco; Vecchio, Antonio

2015-04-01

We used tidal data collected in the time span 1872-2014 from a set of historical and modern stations located in the central Mediterranean, along the coasts of Italy, France, Slovenia and Croatia. The longest records span across the last two or three centuries for the tidal stations of Genova, Marseille, Trieste and Venice. While data from Bakar, Dubrovink, Rovinji and Split, all located along the coast of the Adriatic sea, provide valid records for a time span about 50 years long. In addition to these stations, since 1998 become available for the Italian region new sea level data from the dense national tidal network (www.mareografico.it). These digital stations are collecting data continuously at 10 minute sampling interval with a nominal accuracy at 1 mm. Therefore, in addition to the historical stations, we have the opportunity to analyze a sea level data set that cover about the last 16 years. In this study we show and discuss the results of our analysis of sea level data for the central Mediterranean, providing new insights on sea level trend and variability for about the past 140 years. Finally, based on sea level data and IPCC reports, we provide future sea level projections for this region for the year 2100 with implications for coastal flooding of lowland areas.

Observing large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents by satellite altimetry - With application to the Antarctic circumpolar current

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, L.-L.; Chelton, D. B.

1985-01-01

A new method is developed for studying large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents from satellite altimetric sea level measurements at intersections (crossovers) of ascending and descending orbit ground tracks. Using this method, sea level time series can be constructed from crossover sea level differences in small sample areas where altimetric crossovers are clustered. The method is applied to Seasat altimeter data to study the temporal evolution of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) over the 3-month Seasat mission (July-October 1978). The results reveal a generally eastward acceleration of the ACC around the Southern Ocean with meridional disturbances which appear to be associated with bottom topographic features. This is the first direct observational evidence for large-scale coherence in the temporal variability of the ACC. It demonstrates the great potential of satellite altimetry for synoptic observation of temporal variability of the world ocean circulation.

Examining spatial variability in relative sea-level in the New York City/New Jersey region during the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, Jennifer; Clear, Jennifer; Garcia-Artola, Ane; Khan, Nicole; Shaw, Timothy; Corbett, Reide; Kemp, Andrew; Kopp, Robert; Horton, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions extend the 20th century instrumental record (tide gauge and satellite measurements) of spatial and temporal sea-level variability to provide a much longer context for recent trends and projected RSL rise. Common Era (last 2000 years) RSL reconstructions illustrate patterns of natural variability and include natural phases of climate and sea-level which will improve our knowledge basis for sea-level responses to climate changes. The northeast U.S. has exhibited varying rates in relative sea-level rise through the Common Era, primarily due to glacial isostatic adjustment. However, other factors such as ocean/atmosphere dynamics, sediment compaction, and the static equilibrium response to land ice changes, further influence the evolution of relative sea-level. The spatial variability is manifest in the tide gauge records. The tide gauge at the Battery, New York City (1856 to 2015) records a relative sea-level rise of 2.8 mm/yr whereas the tide gauge at Sandy Hook, New Jersey (1932 to 2015), 25 km southeast, records 4.1 mm/yr. Here we present a new reconstruction of RSL in northern New Jersey using geological and tide gauge data. A Common Era sea-level record from northern New Jersey fills in the spatial gap between records completed in southern New Jersey, New York City, and Connecticut. Our field study site is in Cheesequake State Park, where we observed sedimentary sequences dating back 2000 cal. yrs. BP. We use microfossil indicators preserved in salt-marsh sediments as a proxy to reconstruct RSL with decimeter precision. Salt-marsh foraminifera act as reliable RSL indicators because their modern distribution is strongly linked to tidal elevation. The recent application of microfossil-based transfer functions has enabled continuous records of RSL, extending centuries before the modern instrumental period, to be produced with a full consideration of uncertainty. We use a composite chronology of AMS 14C, pollen chrono-horizons, pollution histories, and a 137Cs spike (AD 1963) to achieve multi-decadal temporal precision. The RSL record for northern New Jersey shows a 2.4 m rise during the past 2000 years at a mean rate of 1.2 mm/yr. This compares to rates from a database of Holocene relative sea-level observations for the U.S. Atlantic coast which found a rise of 1.4 mm/yr for New Jersey and 1.3 mm/yr for New York from 4 ka BP to AD 1900 (Engelhart and Horton, 2012).

Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2014-08-01

Detection and attribution of human influence on sea level rise are important topics that have not yet been explored in depth. We question whether the sea level changes (SLC) over the past century were natural in origin. SLC exhibit power law long-term correlations. By estimating Hurst exponent through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and by applying statistics of Lennartz and Bunde, we search the lower bounds of statistically significant external sea level trends in longest tidal records worldwide. We provide statistical evidences that the observed SLC, at global and regional scales, is beyond its natural internal variability. The minimum anthropogenic sea level trend (MASLT) contributes to the observed sea level rise more than 50% in New York, Baltimore, San Diego, Marseille, and Mumbai. A MASLT is about 1 mm/yr in global sea level reconstructions that is more than half of the total observed sea level trend during the XXth century.

GGOS Focus Area 3: Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöne, Tilo; Shum, Ck; Tamisiea, Mark; Woodworth, Philip

2017-04-01

Sea level and its change have been measured for more than a century. Especially for coastal nations, deltaic regions, and coastal-oriented industries, observations of tides, tidal extremes, storm surges, and sea level rise at the interannual or longer scales have substantial impacts on coastal vulnerability towards resilience and sustainability of world's coastal regions. To date, the observed global sea level rise is largely associated with climate related changes. To find the patterns and fingerprints of those changes, and to e.g., separate the land motion from sea level signals, different monitoring techniques have been developed. Some of them are local, e.g., tide gauges, while others are global, e.g., satellite altimetry. It is well known that sea level change and land vertical motion varies regionally, and both signals need to be measured in order to quantify relative sea level at the local scale. The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) and its services contribute in many ways to the monitoring of the sea level. These includes tide gauge observations, estimation of gravity changes, satellite altimetry, InSAR/Lidar, GNSS-control of tide gauges, providing ground truth sites for satellite altimetry, and importantly the maintenance of the International Reference Frame. Focus Area 3 (Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability) of GGOS establishes a platform and a forum for researchers and authorities dealing with estimating global and local sea level changes in a 10- to 30-year time span, and its project to the next century or beyond. It presents an excellent opportunity to emphasize the global, through to regional and local, importance of GGOS to a wide range of sea-level related science and practical applications. Focus Area 3 works trough demonstration projects to highlight the value of geodetic techniques to sea level science and applications. Contributions under a call for participation (http://www.ggos.org/Applications/theme3_SL.html) are welcome. The present status of GGOS Focus Area 3 will be highlighted. http://www.ggos-portal.org/lang_en/GGOS-Portal/EN/Themes/SeaLevel/seaLevel.html

Sensitivity of the sea ice concentration over the Kara-Barents Sea in autumn to the winter temperature variability over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, K. H.; Chang, E. C.

2017-12-01

In this study, we performed sensitivity experiments by utilizing the Global/Regional Integrated Model system with different conditions of the sea ice concentration over the Kara-Barents (KB) Sea in autumn, which can affect winter temperature variability over East Asia. Prescribed sea ice conditions are 1) climatological autumn sea ice concentration obtained from 1982 to 2016, 2) reduced autumn sea ice concentration by 50% of the climatology, and 3) increased autumn sea ice concentration by 50% of climatology. Differently prescribed sea ice concentration changes surface albedo, which affects surface heat fluxes and near-surface air temperature. The reduced (increased) sea ice concentration over the KB sea increases (decreases) near-surface air temperature that leads the lower (higher) sea level pressure in autumn. These patterns are maintained from autumn to winter season. Furthermore, it is shown that the different sea ice concentration over the KB sea has remote effects on the sea level pressure patterns over the East Asian region. The lower (higher) sea level pressure over the KB sea by the locally decreased (increased) ice concentration is related to the higher (lower) pressure pattern over the Siberian region, which induces strengthened (weakened) cold advection over the East Asian region. From these sensitivity experiments it is clarified that the decreased (increased) sea ice concentration over the KB sea in autumn can lead the colder (warmer) surface air temperature over East Asia in winter.

Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, I.; Raghunath, R.; Fu, L. L.

1996-01-01

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

What can we learn from the self-attraction and loading fingerprints about pre-GRACE mass-loss acceleration from Greenland and Antarctica?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, J. L.; Vinogradova, N. T.

2017-12-01

Tide-gauge records from the North Atlantic reveal significant acceleration in sea level starting in the late 20th century. We have analyzed the tide-gauge data using a model in which the accelerations are assumed to be zero prior to 1990. The estimated accelerations range from -1 to +3 m cy-2 and exhibit a systematic spatial variability. Davis and Vinogradova [2017] demonstrated that to model this variability in sea-level acceleration requires contributions from several distinct physical processes: accelerated mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and acceleration associated with ocean circulation and heat uptake. Atmospheric pressure also contributes to the observed changes in sea level, at a much smaller amplitude. Because we are focusing on sea-level accelerations (i.e., sea-level rate changes), the contribution from Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is negligible. Modeling of observed sea-level acceleration is achieved using external constraints for the important physical processes. Using GRACE results, we can calculate the sea-level "fingerprints" for Greenland and Antarctica associated with mass loading and gravitational perturbations. For the North Atlantic, Greenland induces a significant spatial variation in sea-level change—dominated by the solid-Earth response to the mass loss—whereas Antarctica contributes a spatially constant acceleration. The observations prefer a scaling of the solid-Earth/gravitational response, and we present the implications of this result for ice-mass changes prior to the onset of GRACE observations (2002-3).

Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise

PubMed Central

Haigh, Ivan D.; Wahl, Thomas; Rohling, Eelco J.; Price, René M.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Calafat, Francisco M.; Dangendorf, Sönke

2014-01-01

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records. PMID:24728012

Time evolution of atmospheric parameters and their influence on sea level pressure over the head Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Anindita; Bhaskaran, Prasad K.; Jose, Felix

2018-06-01

A zonal dipole in the observed trends of wind speed and significant wave height over the Head Bay of Bengal region was recently reported in the literature attributed due to the variations in sea level pressure (SLP). The SLP in turn is governed by prevailing atmospheric conditions such as local temperature, humidity, rainfall, atmospheric pressure, wind field distribution, formation of tropical cyclones, etc. The present study attempts to investigate the inter-annual variability of atmospheric parameters and its role on the observed zonal dipole trend in sea level pressure, surface wind speed and significant wave height. It reports on the aspects related to linear trend as well as its spatial variability for several atmospheric parameters: air temperature, geopotential height, omega (vertical velocity), and zonal wind, over the head Bay of Bengal, by analyzing National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis 2 dataset covering a period of 38 years (1979-2016). Significant warming from sea level to 200 mb pressure level and thereafter cooling above has been noticed during all the seasons. Warming within the troposphere exhibits spatial difference between eastern and western side of the domain. This led to fall in lower tropospheric geopotential height and its east-west variability, exhibiting a zonal dipole pattern across the Head Bay. In the upper troposphere, uplift in geopotential height was found as a result of cooling in higher levels (10-100 mb). Variability in omega also substantiated the observed variations in geopotential height. The study also finds weakening in the upper level westerlies and easterlies. Interestingly, a linear trend in lower tropospheric u-wind component also reveals an east-west dipole pattern over the study region. Further, the study corroborates the reported dipole in trends of sea level pressure, wind speed and significant wave height by evaluating the influence of atmospheric variability on these parameters.

Rapid changes in the seasonal sea level cycle along the US Gulf coast in the early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Calafat, F. M.; Luther, M. E.

2013-12-01

The seasonal cycle is an energetic component in the sea level spectrum and dominates the intra-annual sea level variability outside the semidiurnal and diurnal tidal bands in most regions. Changes in the annual or semi-annual amplitudes or phase lags have an immediate impact on marine coastal systems. Increases in the amplitudes or phase shifts towards the storm surge season may for instance exacerbate the risk of coastal flooding and/or beach erosion, and the ecological health of estuarine systems is also coupled to the seasonal sea level cycle. Here, we investigate the temporal variability of the seasonal harmonics along the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coastline using records from 13 tide gauges providing at least 30 years of data in total and at least 15 years for the period after 1990. The longest records go back to the early 20th century. Running Fourier analysis (with a window length of 5-years) is used to extract the seasonal harmonics from the observations. The resulting time series show a considerable decadal variability and no longer-term changes are found in the phase lags and the semi-annual amplitude. The amplitude of the dominating annual cycle in contrast shows a tendency towards higher values since the turn of the century at tide gauges in the eastern part of the GOM. This increase of up to more than 25% is found to be significant at the 90% confidence level for most tide gauges along the coastline of West Florida and at the 75% confidence level for virtually all stations in the eastern GOM (from Key West to Dauphin Island). Monthly mean sea level sub-series show that the changes are partly due to smaller values in the cold season but mostly a result of higher values in the warm season, i.e. sea levels tend to be higher during the hurricane season. We use information on the steric sea level component, sea surface and air temperature, wind forcing, precipitation, and sea level pressure to explain the mechanisms driving the decadal variability in the annual amplitude and the rapid increase over the last decade in the eastern GOM. We have developed several multiple regression models (MRM) with a varying number of independent predictors to reconstruct the temporal changes back to the mid and early 20th century (depending on data availability of the predictors). The models are able to explain up to 85% of the observed variability (70% on average across sites) and major parts of the rapid increase in the early 21st century. Multicollinearity between the predictors makes it difficult to quantify the contribution of individual parameters to the increase but sensitivity tests outline that changes in the annual cycle of the air surface temperature (which in turn directly propagates into the sea surface temperature) played a dominant role. The MRMs allow us to reconstruct the seasonal sea level cycle back to the early 20th century at all tide gauge sites and will be used in a follow-up study in combination with regional climate model output to assess potential future changes.

Reconstruction of the 3-D Dynamics From Surface Variables in a High-Resolution Simulation of North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fresnay, S.; Ponte, A. L.; Le Gentil, S.; Le Sommer, J.

2018-03-01

Several methods that reconstruct the three-dimensional ocean dynamics from sea level are presented and evaluated in the Gulf Stream region with a 1/60° realistic numerical simulation. The use of sea level is motivated by its better correlation with interior pressure or quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (PV) compared to sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity, and, by its observability via satellite altimetry. The simplest method of reconstruction relies on a linear estimation of pressure at depth from sea level. Another method consists in linearly estimating PV from sea level first and then performing a PV inversion. The last method considered, labeled SQG for surface quasi-geostrophy, relies on a PV inversion but assumes no PV anomalies. The first two methods show comparable skill at levels above -800 m. They moderately outperform SQG which emphasizes the difficulty of estimating interior PV from surface variables. Over the 250-1,000 m depth range, the three methods skillfully reconstruct pressure at wavelengths between 500 and 200 km whereas they exhibit a rapid loss of skill between 200 and 100 km wavelengths. Applicability to a real case scenario and leads for improvements are discussed.

Modeling Sea-Level Change using Errors-in-Variables Integrated Gaussian Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

2014-05-01

We perform Bayesian inference on historical and late Holocene (last 2000 years) rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to our model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. To accurately estimate rates of sea-level change and reliably compare tide-gauge compilations with proxy reconstructions it is necessary to account for the uncertainties that characterize each dataset. Many previous studies used simple linear regression models (most commonly polynomial regression) resulting in overly precise rate estimates. The model we propose uses an integrated Gaussian process approach, where a Gaussian process prior is placed on the rate of sea-level change and the data itself is modeled as the integral of this rate process. The non-parametric Gaussian process model is known to be well suited to modeling time series data. The advantage of using an integrated Gaussian process is that it allows for the direct estimation of the derivative of a one dimensional curve. The derivative at a particular time point will be representative of the rate of sea level change at that time point. The tide gauge and proxy data are complicated by multiple sources of uncertainty, some of which arise as part of the data collection exercise. Most notably, the proxy reconstructions include temporal uncertainty from dating of the sediment core using techniques such as radiocarbon. As a result of this, the integrated Gaussian process model is set in an errors-in-variables (EIV) framework so as to take account of this temporal uncertainty. The data must be corrected for land-level change known as glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) as it is important to isolate the climate-related sea-level signal. The correction for GIA introduces covariance between individual age and sea level observations into the model. The proposed integrated Gaussian process model allows for the estimation of instantaneous rates of sea-level change and accounts for all available sources of uncertainty in tide-gauge and proxy-reconstruction data. Our response variable is sea level after correction for GIA. By embedding the integrated process in an errors-in-variables (EIV) framework, and removing the estimate of GIA, we can quantify rates with better estimates of uncertainty than previously possible. The model provides a flexible fit and enables us to estimate rates of change at any given time point, thus observing how rates have been evolving from the past to present day.

Multiproxy assessment of Holocene relative sea-level changes in the western Mediterranean: sea-level variability and improvements in the definition of the isostatic signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacchi, Matteo; Rovere, Alessio; Marriner, Nick; Morhange, Christophe; Spada, Giorgio; Fontana, Alessandro

2016-04-01

After the review of 918 radiocarbon dated Relative Sea-Level (RSL) data-points we present here the first quality-controlled database constraining the Holocene sea-level histories of the western Mediterranean Sea (Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta and Tunisia). We reviewed and standardized the geological RSL data-points using a new multi-proxy methodology based on: (1) modern taxa assemblages in Mediterranean lagoons and marshes; (2) beachrock characteristics (cement fabric and chemistry, sedimentary structures); and (3) the modern distribution of Mediterranean fixed biological indicators. These RSL data-points were coupled with the large number of archaeological RSL indicators available for the western Mediterranean. We assessed the spatial variability of RSL histories for 22 regions and compared these with the ICE-5G VM2 GIA model. In the western Mediterranean, RSL rose continuously for the whole Holocene with a sudden slowdown at ~7.5 ka BP and a further deceleration during the last ~4.0 ka BP, after which time observed RSL changes are mainly related to variability in isostatic adjustment. The sole exception is southern Tunisia, where data show evidence of a mid-Holocene high-stand compatible with the isostatic impacts of the melting history of the remote Antarctic ice sheet. Our results indicate that late-Holocene sea-level rise was significantly slower than the current one. First estimates of GIA contribution indicate that, at least in the northwestern sector, it accounts at least for the 25-30% of the ongoing sea-level rise recorded by Mediterranean tidal gauges. Such contribution is less constrained at lower latitudes due to the lower quality of the late Holocene index points. Future applications of spatio-temporal statistical techniques are required to better quantify the gradient of the isostatic contribution and to provide improved context for the assessment of 20th century acceleration of Mediterranean sea-level rise.

Sea level trend and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

2015-08-01

Sea level rise due to climate change is non-uniform globally, necessitating regional estimates. Peninsular Malaysia is located in the middle of Southeast Asia, bounded from the west by the Malacca Strait, from the east by the South China Sea (SCS), and from the south by the Singapore Strait. The sea level along the peninsula may be influenced by various regional phenomena native to the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. To examine the variability and trend of sea level around the peninsula, tide gauge records and satellite altimetry are analyzed taking into account vertical land movements (VLMs). At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) around Peninsular Malaysia on the order of 5-25 cm are mainly monsoon driven. Sea levels at eastern and western coasts respond differently to the Asian monsoon: two peaks per year in the Malacca Strait due to South Asian-Indian monsoon; an annual cycle in the remaining region mostly due to the East Asian-western Pacific monsoon. At interannual scale, regional sea level variability in the range of ±6 cm is correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). SLAs in the Malacca Strait side are further correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the range of ±5 cm. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Nino events and positive phases of IOD, whilst rises are correlated with La Nina episodes and negative values of the IOD index. At seasonal to interannual scales, we observe the separation of the sea level patterns in the Singapore Strait, between the Raffles Lighthouse and Tanjong Pagar tide stations, likely caused by a dynamic constriction in the narrowest part. During the observation period 1986-2013, average relative rates of sea level rise derived from tide gauges in Malacca Strait and along the east coast of the peninsula are 3.6±1.6 and 3.7±1.1 mm yr-1, respectively. Correcting for respective VLMs (0.8±2.6 and 0.9±2.2 mm yr-1), their corresponding geocentric sea level rise rates are estimated at 4.4±3.1 and 4.6±2.5 mm yr-1. The geocentric rates are about 25 % faster than those measured at tide gauges around the peninsula; however, the level of uncertainty associated with VLM data is relatively high. For the common period between 1993 and 2009, geocentric sea level rise values along the Malaysian coast are similar from tide gauge records and satellite altimetry (3.1 and 2.7 mm yr-1, respectively), and arguably correspond to the global trend.

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

2018-04-01

Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

Late Holocene sea- and land-level change on the U.S. southeastern Atlantic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kemp, Andrew C.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Vane, Christopher H.; Peltier, W. Richard; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Parnell, Andrew C.; Cahill, Niamh

2015-01-01

Late Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions can be used to estimate rates of land-level (subsidence or uplift) change and therefore to modify global sea-level projections for regional conditions. These reconstructions also provide the long-term benchmark against which modern trends are compared and an opportunity to understand the response of sea level to past climate variability. To address a spatial absence of late Holocene data in Florida and Georgia, we reconstructed ~ 1.3 m of RSL rise in northeastern Florida (USA) during the past ~ 2600 years using plant remains and foraminifera in a dated core of high salt-marsh sediment. The reconstruction was fused with tide-gauge data from nearby Fernandina Beach, which measured 1.91 ± 0.26 mm/year of RSL rise since 1900 CE. The average rate of RSL rise prior to 1800 CE was 0.41 ± 0.08 mm/year. Assuming negligible change in global mean sea level from meltwater input/removal and thermal expansion/contraction, this sea-level history approximates net land-level (subsidence and geoid) change, principally from glacio-isostatic adjustment. Historic rates of rise commenced at 1850–1890 CE and it is virtually certain (P = 0.99) that the average rate of 20th century RSL rise in northeastern Florida was faster than during any of the preceding 26 centuries. The linearity of RSL rise in Florida is in contrast to the variability reconstructed at sites further north on the U.S. Atlantic coast and may suggest a role for ocean dynamic effects in explaining these more variable RSL reconstructions. Comparison of the difference between reconstructed rates of late Holocene RSL rise and historic trends measured by tide gauges indicates that 20th century sea-level trends along the U.S. Atlantic coast were not dominated by the characteristic spatial fingerprint of melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor.

PubMed

Barnett, Jon; Dessai, Suraje; Jones, Roger N

2007-07-01

This paper presents the results of a preliminary study of climate vulnerability in East Timor. It shows the results of projections of climate change in East Timor. The country's climate may become hotter, drier, and increasingly variable. Sea levels are likely to rise. The paper then considers the implications of these changes on three natural resources--water, soils, and the coastal zone--and finds all to be sensitive to changes in climate and sea level. Changes in the abundance and distribution of these resources is likely to cause a reduction in agricultural production and food security, and sea-level rise is likely to damage coastal areas, including Dili, the capital city.

Impacts of climate-change-driven sea level rise on intertidal rocky reef habitats will be variable and site specific.

PubMed

Thorner, Jaqueline; Kumar, Lalit; Smith, Stephen D A

2014-01-01

Intertidal rocky reefs are complex and rich ecosystems that are vulnerable to even the smallest fluctuations in sea level. We modelled habitat loss associated with sea level rise for intertidal rocky reefs using GIS, high-resolution digital imagery, and LIDAR technology at fine-scale resolution (0.1 m per pixel). We used projected sea levels of +0.3 m, +0.5 m and +1.0 m above current Mean Low Tide Level (0.4 m). Habitat loss and changes were analysed for each scenario for five headlands in the Solitary Islands Marine Park (SIMP), Australia. The results indicate that changes to habitat extent will be variable across different shores and will not necessarily result in net loss of area for some habitats. In addition, habitat modification will not follow a regular pattern over the projected sea levels. Two of the headlands included in the study currently have the maximum level of protection within the SIMP. However, these headlands are likely to lose much of the habitat known to support biodiverse assemblages and may not continue to be suitable sanctuaries into the future. The fine-scale approach taken in this study thus provides a protocol not only for modelling habitat modification but also for future proofing conservation measures under a scenario of changing sea levels.

North Atlantic teleconnection patterns signature on sea level from satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Isabel; Lázaro, Clara; Joana Fernandes, M.; Bastos, Luísa

2015-04-01

Presently, satellite altimetry record is long enough to appropriately study inter-annual signals in sea level anomaly and ocean surface circulation, allowing the association of teleconnection patterns of low-frequency variability with the response of sea level. The variability of the Atlantic Ocean at basin-scale is known to be complex in space and time, with the dominant mode occurring on annual timescales. However, interannual and decadal variability have already been documented in sea surface temperature. Both modes are believed to be linked and are known to influence sea level along coastal regions. The analysis of the sea level multiannual variability is thus essential to understand the present climate and its long-term variability. While in the open-ocean sea level anomaly from satellite altimetry currently possesses centimetre-level accuracy, satellite altimetry measurements become invalid or of lower accuracy along the coast due to the invalidity of the wet tropospheric correction (WTC) derived from on-board microwave radiometers. In order to adequately analyse long-term changes in sea level in the coastal regions, satellite altimetry measurements can be recovered by using an improved WTC computed from recent algorithms that combine wet path delays from all available observations (remote sensing scanning imaging radiometers, GNSS stations, microwave radiometers on-board satellite altimetry missions and numerical weather models). In this study, a 20-year (1993-2013) time series of multi-mission satellite altimetry (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM/Jason-2, ERS-1/2, ENVISAT, CryoSat-2 and SARAL), are used to characterize the North Atlantic (NA) long-term variability on sea level at basin-scale and analyse its response to several atmospheric teleconnections known to operate on the NA. The altimetry record was generated using an improved coastal WTC computed from either the GNSS-derived path Delay or the Data Combination methodologies developed by University of Porto (Fernandes et al., 2010; Fernandes et al., 2013). Regular 0.25°x0.25° latitude-longitude grids were generated at a 10-day interval for the NA Ocean (60°W-5°W, 5°N-60°N) using optimal interpolation with a realistic space-time correlation function (Lázaro et al., 2013). These grids are used to inspect the response of sea level anomalies to several teleconnection patterns as well as the NA variability on annual and longer timescales. The teleconnection patterns selected are the ones that have influence on the NA basin: North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic pattern, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, Scandinavia pattern, Western Mediterranean Oscillation index, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Tropical North Atlantic Index, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Acknowledgments: RAIA tec (0688-RAIATEC-1-P) project. The RAIA Coastal Observatory has been funded by the Programa Operativo de Cooperación Transfronteriza España-Portugal (POCTEP 2007-2013). References: Fernandes M.J., C. Lázaro, A.L. Nunes, N. Pires, L. Bastos, V.B. Mendes (2010). GNSS-derived Path Delay: an approach to compute the wet tropospheric correction for coastal altimetry. IEEE Geosci. Rem. Sens Lett., Vol. 7, NO. 3, 596 - 600, doi: 10.1109/LGRS.2010.2042425. Lázaro, C., M. J. Juliano, M. J. Fernandes (2013): Semi-automatic determination of the Azores Current axis using satellite altimetry: application to the study of the current variability during 1995-2006. Advances in Space Research, Vol. 51(11), pp. 2155-2170, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2012.12.021. Fernandes, M. J., A.L. Nunes, C. Lázaro (2013). Analysis and Inter-Calibration of Wet Path Delay Datasets to Compute the Wet Tropospheric Correction for CryoSat-2 over Ocean. Remote Sensing, 5, 4977-5005.

Characterization of extreme sea level at the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elizalde, Alberto; Jorda, Gabriel; Mathis, Moritz; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2015-04-01

Extreme high sea levels arise as a combination of storm surges and particular high tides events. Future climate simulations not only project changes in the atmospheric circulation, which induces changes in the wind conditions, but also an increase in the global mean sea level by thermal expansion and ice melting. Such changes increase the risk of coastal flooding, which represents a possible hazard for human activities. Therefore, it is important to investigate the pattern of sea level variability and long-term trends at coastal areas. In order to analyze further extreme sea level events at the European coast in the future climate projections, a new setup for the global ocean model MPIOM coupled with the regional atmosphere model REMO is prepared. The MPIOM irregular grid has enhanced resolution in the European region to resolve the North and the Mediterranean Seas (up to 11 x 11 km at the North Sea). The ocean model includes as well the full luni-solar ephemeridic tidal potential for tides simulation. To simulate the air-sea interaction, the regional atmospheric model REMO is interactively coupled to the ocean model over Europe. Such region corresponds to the EuroCORDEX domain with a 50 x 50 km resolution. Besides the standard fluxes of heat, mass (freshwater), momentum and turbulent energy input, the ocean model is also forced with sea level pressure, in order to be able to capture the full variation of sea level. The hydrological budget within the study domain is closed using a hydrological discharge model. With this model, simulations for present climate and future climate scenarios are carried out to study transient changes on the sea level and extreme events. As a first step, two simulations (coupled and uncoupled ocean) driven by reanalysis data (ERA40) have been conducted. They are used as reference runs to evaluate the climate projection simulations. For selected locations at the coast side, time series of sea level are separated on its different components: tides, short time atmospheric process influence (1-30 days), seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Every sea level component is statistically compared with data from local tide gauges.

The Sea Level Fingerprints of Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Kopp, R. E., III; Morrow, E.

2014-12-01

It may be difficult to persuade those living in northern Europe that the sea level changes that their coastal communities face depends less on the total melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers than on the individual contributions to this total. In particular, melting of a specific ice sheet or mountain glacier drives deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations to the Earth system that are manifest in a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of global sea level change. For example, melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet equivalent to 1 mm/yr of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise will lead to sea level rise of ~0 mm/yr in Dublin, ~0.2 mm/yr in Amsterdam, ~0.4 mm/yr in Boston and ~1.2 mm/yr in Cape Town. In contrast, if the same volume of ice melted from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, all of the above sites would experience a sea level rise in the range 1.1-1.2 mm/yr. These fingerprints of modern ice melting, together with ocean thermal expansion and dynamic effects, and the ongoing signal from glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age, combine to produce a sea level field with significant geographic variability. In this talk I will highlight an analysis of global tide gauge records that takes full advantage of this variability to estimate both GMSL and the sources of meltwater over the last century, and to project GMSL to the end of the current century.

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar to capture spatial variability of local land-based subsidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekaert, D. P.; Hamlington, B.; Buzzanga, B. A.; Jones, C. E.

2017-12-01

The rate of relative sea level rise results from a combination of land subsidence and rising seas associated with global warming on long timescales and exacerbated by shifts in ocean dynamics on shorter timescales. An understanding of the current-day magnitude of each component is needed to create accurate projections of future relative sea level rise upon which to base planning efforts. Current day land-based subsidence rates derived from GPS often lack the spatial resolution to capture the local spatial variability needed when assessing the impact of relative sea-level rise. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is an attractive technique that has the potential to provide a measurement every 20-30m when good signal coherence is maintained. In practice, coastal regions are challenging for InSAR due to variable vegetation cover and soil moisture, which can be in part mitigated by applying advanced time-series InSAR techniques. After applying time-series InSAR, derived rates need to be combined with GPS to tie relative subsidence rates into a geodetic reference frame. Given the need to make projections of relative sea-level rise it is particularly important to propagate all uncertainties during the different processing stages. Here we provide results from ALOS and Sentinel-1 over Hampton Roads area in the Chesapeake Bay region, which is experiencing one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United States. Although the current derived subsidence rates have large uncertainties, it is expected that this will improve with the decadal observations from Sentinel-1.

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

PubMed

Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

2015-07-10

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Guinehut, Stéphanie; Xue, Yan; Szekely, Tanguy; Fukumori, Ichiro; Forget, Gael; Chang, You-Soon; Good, Simon A.; Köhl, Armin; Vernieres, Guillaume; Ferry, Nicolas; Peterson, K. Andrew; Behringer, David; Ishii, Masayoshi; Masuda, Shuhei; Fujii, Yosuke; Toyoda, Takahiro; Yin, Yonghong; Valdivieso, Maria; Barnier, Bernard; Boyer, Tim; Lee, Tony; Gourrion, Jérome; Wang, Ou; Heimback, Patrick; Rosati, Anthony; Kovach, Robin; Hernandez, Fabrice; Martin, Matthew J.; Kamachi, Masafumi; Kuragano, Tsurane; Mogensen, Kristian; Alves, Oscar; Haines, Keith; Wang, Xiaochun

2017-08-01

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003-2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993-2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Corbett, D. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Kemp, A.; Lin, N.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

2013-12-01

Future inundation of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. Through ongoing, collaborative research we are employing new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea level rise along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic variability. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers, and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. We produced new, high-resolution proxy sea-level reconstructions to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset spans the alternation between the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' and 'Little Ice Age'. Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from four study areas (Connecticut, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, future storm surges will be superimposed on background sea-level rise. To overcome these problems, we coupled regional sea-level rise projections with hurricane simulations and storm surge models to map coastal inundation for the current climate and the best and worst case climate scenarios of the IPCC AR4. With agency, NGO, and business partners, we have integrated these findings into coastal policy initiatives, including the first ever adoption of sea level Adaptation Action Areas in a Florida city land use plan.

Variability of the Baltic Sea level and floods in the Gulf of Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, E. A.; Medvedev, I. P.

2013-03-01

The statistical analysis of the long-term data on the variability of the Baltic Sea level has revealed the complicated character of the wave field structure. The wave field formed by the variable winds and the disturbances of the atmospheric pressure in the Baltic Sea is a superposition of standing oscillations with random phases. The cross spectral analysis of the synchronous observation series of the level in the Gulf of Finland has shown that the nodal lines of the standing dilatational waves are clearly traced with frequencies corresponding to the distance from the nodal line to the top of the gulf (a quarter of the wave length). Several areas of the water basin with clearly expressed resonant properties may be distinguished: the Gulfs of Finland, Riga, and Bothnia, Neva Bay, etc. The estimations of the statistical correlation of the sea level oscillations with the variation of the wind and atmospheric pressure indicate the dominant role of the zonal wind component during the formation of the floods in the Gulf of Finland. The probable reason for the extreme floods in St. Petersburg may be the resonance rocking of the eigenmode oscillations corresponding to the basic fundamental seiche mode of the Gulf of Finland with a period of 27 h when the repeated atmospheric disturbances in the Baltic Sea occur with a period of 1-2 days.

Sea-level variability in the Common Era along the Atlantic coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kemp, A.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.; Little, C. M.; Engelhart, S. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2017-12-01

Common Era relative sea-level trends on the margins of the North Atlantic Ocean vary through time and across space as a result of simultaneous global (basin-wide)-, regional- (linear and non-linear), and local-scale processes. A growing suite of relative sea-level reconstructions derived from dated salt-marsh (and mangrove) sediment on the Atlantic coast of North America provides an opportunity to quantify the contributions from several physical processes to Common Era sea-level trends. In particular, this coastline is susceptible to relative sea-level changes caused by melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and redistribution of existing ocean mass on timescales of days to centuries by evolving patterns and strengths of atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Using a case study from Newfoundland, Canada, we demonstrate how high-resolution (decadal- and decimeter-scale) relative sea level reconstructions are produced from sequences of salt-marsh sediment that were deposited under conditions of long-term sea-level rise. We use an expanded database of Common Era relative sea-level reconstructions from the Atlantic coast of North America that spans locations from Newfoundland to the southern Florida to identify spatial and temporal patterns of change. A spatio-temporal statistical model enables us to decompose each reconstruction (with uncertainty) into contributions from global-, regional- (linear and non-linear), and local-scale processes. This analysis shows that spatially-variable glacio-isostatic adjustment was the primary driver of sea-level change. The global signal is dominated by the onset of anthropogenic sea-level rise in the late 19th century, which caused the 20th century to experience a faster rate of rise than any of the preceding 26 centuries. Differentiating between regional non-linear and local-scale processes is a challenging using an inherently sparse network of reconstructions. However, we show that sites south of Cape Hatteras have sea-level histories distinct to those from more northward locations and propose that this spatial pattern is best explained by dynamic processes that could include century-scale NAO-driven circulation changes. Complementary paleoenvironmental reconstructions from diverse proxies support this interpretation.

Investigation Hydrometeorological Regime of the White Sea Based on Satellite Altimetry Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebedev, Sergey A.

2016-08-01

The White Sea are the seas of the Arctic Ocean. Today complicated hydrodynamic, tidal, ice, and meteorological regimes of these seas may be investigated on the basis of remote sensing data, specifically of satellite altimetry data. Results of calibration and validation of satellite altimetry measurements (sea surface height and sea surface wind speed) and comparison with regional tidal model show that this type of data may be successfully used in scientific research and in monitoring of the environment. Complex analysis of the tidal regime of the White Sea and comparison between global and regional tidal models show advantages of regional tidal model for use in tidal correction of satellite altimetry data. Examples of using the sea level data in studying long-term variability of the Barents and White Seas are presented. Interannual variability of sea ice edge position is estimated on the basis of altimetry data.

Comparison of seasonal variability of Aquarius sea surface salinity time series with in situ observations in the Karimata Strait, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susanto, R. D.; Setiawan, A.; Zheng, Q.; Sulistyo, B.; Adi, T. R.; Agustiadi, T.; Trenggono, M.; Triyono, T.; Kuswardani, A.

2016-12-01

The seasonal variability of a full lifetime of Aquarius sea surface salinity time series from August 25, 2011 to June 7, 2015 is compared to salinity time series obtained from in situ observations in the Karimata Strait. The Karimata Strait plays dual roles in water exchange between the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The salinity in the Karimata Strait is strongly affected by seasonal monsoon winds. During the boreal winter monsoon, northwesterly winds draws low salinity water from the South China Sea into the Java Sea and at the same time, the Java Sea receives an influx of the Indian Ocean water via the Sunda Strait. The Java Sea water will reduce the main Indonesian throughflow in the Makassar Strait. Conditions are reversed during the summer monsoon. Low salinity water from the South China Sea also controls the vertical structure of water properties in the upper layer of the Makassar Strait and the Lombok Strait. As a part of the South China Sea and Indonesian Seas Transport/Exchange (SITE) program, trawl resistance bottom mounted CTD was deployed in the Karimata Strait in mid-2010 to mid-2016 at water depth of 40 m. CTD casts during the mooring recoveries and deployments are used to compare the bottom salinity data. This in situ salinity time series is compared with various Aquarius NASA salinity products (the level 2, level 3 ascending and descending tracks and the seven-days rolling averaged) to check the consistency, correlation and statistical analysis. The preliminary results show that the seasonal variability of Aquarius salinity time series has larger amplitude variability compared to that of in situ data.

Holocene climate and climate variability of the northern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent northern Gulf Coast: A review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, Richard Z.

2008-01-01

Marine records from the northern Gulf of Mexico indicate that significant multidecadal- and century-scale variability was common during the Holocene. Mean annual sea-surface temperature (SST) during the last 1,400 years may have varied by 3°C, and excursions to cold SST coincide with reductions in solar output. Broad trends in Holocene terrestrial climate and environmental change along the eastern portion of the northern Gulf Coast are evident from existing pollen records, but the high-frequency details of climate variability are not well known. Continuous and well-dated records of climate change and climate variability in the western portion of the northern Gulf Coast are essentially lacking.Information on Holocene floods, droughts, and storm frequency along the northern Gulf Coast is limited. Records of floods may be preserved in continental shelf sediments, but establishing continuity and chronologies for sedimentary sequences on the shelf presents challenges due to sediment remobilization and redeposition during storms. Studies of past storm deposits in coastal lakes and marshes show promise for constructing records of past storm frequency. A recent summary of sea-level history of the northern Gulf Coast indicates sea level was higher than modern sea level several times during the last few thousand years.

Sea Level Changes: Determination and Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodworth, P. L.; Pugh, D. T.; DeRonde, J. G.; Warrick, R. G.; Hannah, J.

The measurement of sea level is of fundamental importance to a wide range of research in climatology, oceanography, geology and geodesy. This volume attempts to cover many aspects of the field. The volume opens with a description by Bolduc and Murty of one of the products stemming from the development of tide gauge networks in the northern and tropical Atlantic. This work is relevant to the growth of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), the main goal of which is to provide the world with an efficient, coherent sea level monitoring system for océanographie and climatological research. The subsequent four papers present results from the analysis of existing tide gauge data, including those datasets available from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level and the TOGA Sea Level Center. Two of the four, by Wroblewski and by Pasaric and Orlic, are concerned with European sea level changes, while Yu Jiye et al. discuss inter-annual changes in the Pacific, and Wang Baocan et al. describe variability in the Changjiang estuary in China. The papers by El- Abd and A wad, on Red Sea levels, are the only contributions to the volume from the large research community of geologists concerned with sea level changes.

A comparison of sea surface salinity in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the 1997-1998, 2012-2013, and 2014-2015 ENSO events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, Caroline M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Giese, Benjamin S.

2017-11-01

Sea surface salinity (SSS) variability during the 1997-1998 El Niño event and the failed 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 El Niño events is explored using a combination of observations and ocean reanalyses. Previously, studies have mainly focused on the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) variability. This analysis utilizes salinity data from Argo and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis to examine the SSS variability. Advective processes and evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability is understood to influence SSS variability. Using surface wind, surface current, evaporation, and precipitation data, we analyze the causes for the observed SSS variability during each event. Barrier layer thickness and upper level salt content are also examined in connection to subsurface salinity variability. Both advective processes and E-P variability are important during the generation and onset of a successful El Niño, while a lack of one or both of these processes leads to a failed ENSO event.

A near uniform basin-wide sea level fluctuation over the Japan/East Sea: A semienclosed sea with multiple straits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seung-Bum; Fukumori, Ichiro

2008-06-01

Sea level of the Japan/East Sea observed by the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) satellite altimeter is analyzed using a 1/4°-resolution ocean general circulation model. A significant fraction of the Japan/East Sea sea level variability is found to be spatially uniform with periods ranging from 20 d to a year. The model simulation is consistent with T/P records in terms of the basin-wide sea level fluctuation's spectral energy and coherence. The simulation indicates that the changes are barotropic in nature and controlled, notably at high frequencies, by the net mass transport through the straits of the Japan/East Sea driven by winds in the vicinity of the Korea/Tsushima and Soya Straits. A series of barotropic simulations suggest that the sea level fluctuations are the result of a dynamic balance at the straits among near-strait winds, friction, and geostrophic control. The basin-wide sea level response is a linear superposition of changes due to winds near the individual straits. In particular, a basin-wide sea level response can be established by winds near either one of the straits alone. For the specific geometry and winds, winds near the Soya Strait have a larger impact on the Japan/East Sea mean sea level than those near the Korea/Tsushima Strait.

Large-scale forcing of the European Slope Current and associated inflows to the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, Robert; Haigh, Ivan; Cunningham, Stuart; Inall, Mark; Porter, Marie; Moat, Ben

2017-04-01

Drifters drogued at 50 m in the European Slope Current at the Hebridean shelf break follow a wide range of pathways, indicating highly variable Atlantic inflow to the North Sea. Slope Current pathways, timescales and transports over 1988-2007 are further quantified in an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast. Particle trajectories calculated with model currents indicate that Slope Current water is largely "recruited" from the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Observations of absolute dynamic topography and climatological density support theoretical expectations that Slope Current transport is to first order associated with meridional density gradients in the eastern subpolar gyre, which support a geostrophic inflow towards the slope. In the model hindcast, Slope Current transport variability is dominated by abrupt 25-50% reductions of these density gradients over 1996-1998. Concurrent changes in wind forcing, expressed in terms of density gradients, act in the same sense to reduce Slope Current transport. This indicates that coordinated regional changes of buoyancy and wind forcing acted together to reduce Slope Current transport during the 1990s. Particle trajectories further show that 10-40% of Slope Current water is destined for the northern North Sea within 6 months of passing to the west of Scotland, with a clear decline in this Atlantic inflow over 1988-2007. The influence of variable Slope Current transport on the northern North Sea is also expressed in salinity variations. A proxy for Atlantic inflow may be found in sea level records. Variability of Slope Current transport is implicit in mean sea level differences between Lerwick (Shetland) and Torshavn (Faeroes), in both tide gauge records and a longer model hindcast spanning 1958-2013. Potential impacts of this variability on North Sea biogeochemistry and ecosystems, via associated changes in temperature and seasonal stratification, are discussed.

Sea-level rise impacts on the temporal and spatial variability of extreme water levels: A case study for St. Peter-Ording, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santamaria-Aguilar, S.; Arns, A.; Vafeidis, A. T.

2017-04-01

Both the temporal and spatial variability of storm surge water level (WL) curves are usually not taken into account in flood risk assessments as observational data are often scarce. In addition, sea-level rise (SLR) can further affect the variability of WLs. We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the WL curve of 75 historical storm surge events that have been numerically simulated for St. Peter-Ording at the German North Sea coast, considering the effects induced by three SLR scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, and a RCP 8.5 high end scenario). We assess potential impacts of these scenarios on two parameters related to flooding: overflow volumes and fullness. Our results indicate that due to both the temporal and spatial variability of those events the resulting overflow volume can be two or even three times greater. We observe a steepening of the WL curve with an increase of the tidal range under the three SLR scenarios, although SLR induced effects are relatively higher for the RCP 4.5. The steepening of the WL curve with SLR produces a reduction of the fullness, but the changes in overflow volumes also depend on the magnitude of the storm surge event.

SeaWiFS technical report series. Volume 32: Level-3 SeaWiFS data products. Spatial and temporal binning algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hooker, Stanford B. (Editor); Firestone, Elaine R. (Editor); Acker, James G. (Editor); Campbell, Janet W.; Blaisdell, John M.; Darzi, Michael

1995-01-01

The level-3 data products from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) are statistical data sets derived from level-2 data. Each data set will be based on a fixed global grid of equal-area bins that are approximately 9 x 9 sq km. Statistics available for each bin include the sum and sum of squares of the natural logarithm of derived level-2 geophysical variables where sums are accumulated over a binning period. Operationally, products with binning periods of 1 day, 8 days, 1 month, and 1 year will be produced and archived. From these accumulated values and for each bin, estimates of the mean, standard deviation, median, and mode may be derived for each geophysical variable. This report contains two major parts: the first (Section 2) is intended as a users' guide for level-3 SeaWiFS data products. It contains an overview of level-0 to level-3 data processing, a discussion of important statistical considerations when using level-3 data, and details of how to use the level-3 data. The second part (Section 3) presents a comparative statistical study of several binning algorithms based on CZCS and moored fluorometer data. The operational binning algorithms were selected based on the results of this study.

Coastal Impact Underestimated From Rapid Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, John; Milliken, Kristy; Wallace, Davin; Rodriguez, Antonio; Simms, Alexander

2010-06-01

A primary effect of global warming is accelerated sea level rise, which will eventually drown low-lying coastal areas, including some of the world's most populated cities. Predictions from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that sea level may rise by as much as 0.6 meter by 2100 [Solomon et al., 2007]. However, uncertainty remains about how projected melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will contribute to sea level rise. Further, considerable variability is introduced to these calculations due to coastal subsidence, especially along the northern Gulf of Mexico (see http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml).

A coastal hazards data base for the U.S. West Coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gornitz, V.M.; Beaty, T.W.; Daniels, R.C.

1997-12-01

This document describes the contents of a digital data base that may be used to identify coastlines along the US West Coast that are at risk to sea-level rise. This data base integrates point, line, and polygon data for the US West Coast into 0.25{degree} latitude by 0.25{degree} longitude grid cells and into 1:2,000,000 digitized line segments that can be used by raster or vector geographic information systems (GIS) as well as by non-GIS data bases. Each coastal grid cell and line segment contains data variables from the following seven data sets: elevation, geology, geomorphology, sea-level trends, shoreline displacement (erosion/accretion),more » tidal ranges, and wave heights. One variable from each data set was classified according to its susceptibility to sea-level rise and/or erosion to form 7 relative risk variables. These risk variables range in value from 1 to 5 and may be used to calculate a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Algorithms used to calculate several CVIs are listed within this text.« less

Comparison of different statistical methods for estimation of extreme sea levels with wave set-up contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kergadallan, Xavier; Bernardara, Pietro; Benoit, Michel; Andreewsky, Marc; Weiss, Jérôme

2013-04-01

Estimating the probability of occurrence of extreme sea levels is a central issue for the protection of the coast. Return periods of sea level with wave set-up contribution are estimated here in one site : Cherbourg in France in the English Channel. The methodology follows two steps : the first one is computation of joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level, the second one is interpretation of that joint probabilities to assess a sea level for a given return period. Two different approaches were evaluated to compute joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level : the first one is multivariate extreme values distributions of logistic type in which all components of the variables become large simultaneously, the second one is conditional approach for multivariate extreme values in which only one component of the variables have to be large. Two different methods were applied to estimate sea level with wave set-up contribution for a given return period : Monte-Carlo simulation in which estimation is more accurate but needs higher calculation time and classical ocean engineering design contours of type inverse-FORM in which the method is simpler and allows more complex estimation of wave setup part (wave propagation to the coast for example). We compare results from the two different approaches with the two different methods. To be able to use both Monte-Carlo simulation and design contours methods, wave setup is estimated with an simple empirical formula. We show advantages of the conditional approach compared to the multivariate extreme values approach when extreme sea-level occurs when either surge or wave height is large. We discuss the validity of the ocean engineering design contours method which is an alternative when computation of sea levels is too complex to use Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Quaternary Sea-Level History from the US Atlantic Coastal Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poirier, R. K.; Cronin, T. M.; Katz, M. E.; Browning, J. V.; Miller, K. G.; Willard, D. A.

2014-12-01

Analyses of emerged Quaternary paleo-shorelines and marine deposits aid in the reconstruction of environmental conditions and variability surrounding recent ice volume and sea-level histories derived from oxygen isotope records. We present preliminary results from a project designed to analyze the age, elevation, and paleoclimate history of Quaternary sediments deposited during sea level highstands along the United States Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) from Maryland to Florida. Prior studies have shown that, depending on the region, ACP sediments correlate with past interglacial periods corresponding to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5, 7, possibly 9, and 11. Stratigraphy, marine micropaleontology, and palynology indicate at least two major marine transgressive sequences on the Delmarva Peninsula in Virginia corresponding to MIS 5a and 11, the Nassawadox Formation and Accomack beds of the Omar Formation, respectively. These depositional sequences represent sea-level positions of approximately +10m and +15m, relative to today. Despite generally corresponding to glacio-eustatic sea levels of +5-9m for MIS 5a-e (Potter & Lambeck, 2003; Kopp et al., 2009), and of +6-13m for MIS 11 (Raymo & Mitrovica, 2012), the relative sea-level positions during both interglacial periods were likely affected by glacio-isostatic adjustment in the region. Corresponding marine units and paleo-shorelines, identified by pronounced inland scarps separated by intermittent terraces on the western side of the Chesapeake Bay, are likely from MIS 5, 7, and 11. Ostracode and foraminifera assemblages identify significant environmental variability within these transgressive interglacial deposits, likely driven by relatively minor, suborbital climatic and sea-level oscillations.

IInvestigations of space-time variability of the sea level in the Barents Sea and the White Sea by satellite altimetry data and results of hydrodynamic modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebedev, S. A.; Zilberstein, O. I.; Popov, S. K.; Tikhonova, O. V.

2003-04-01

The problem of retrieving of the sea level anomalies in the Barents and White Seas from satellite can be considered as two different problems. The first one is to calculate the anomalies of sea level along the trek taking into account all amendments including tidal heights. The second one is to obtain of fields of the sea level anomalies on the grid over one cycle of the exact repeat altimetry mission. Experience results show that there is preferable to use the regional tidal model for calculating tidal heights. To construct of the anomalies fields of the sea level during the exact repeat mission (cycle 35 days for ERS-1 and ERS-2), when a density of the coverage of the area of water of the Barents and White Seas by satellite measurements achieves maximum. It is necessary to solve the problem of the error minimum. This error is based by the temporal difference of the measurements over one cycle and by the specific of the hydrodynamic regime of the both seas (tidal, storm surge variations, tidal currents). To solve this problem it is assumed to use the results of the hydrodynamic modeling. The error minimum is preformed by the regression of the model results and satellite measurements. As a version it is considered the possibility of the utilizing of the neuronet obtained by the model results to construct maps of the sea level anomalies. The comparison of the model results and the calculation of the satellite altimetry variability of the sea level of Barents and White Seas shows a good coincidence between them. The satellite altimetry data of ERS-1/2 and TOPEX/POSEIDON of Ocean Altimeter Pathfinder Project (NASA/GSFC) has been used in this study. Results of the regional tidal model computations and three dimensional baroclinic model created in the Hydrometeocenter have been used as well. This study also exploited the atmosphere date of the Project REANALYSIS. The research was undertaken with partial support from the Russian Basic Research Foundation (Project No. 01-07-90106).

Multidecadal Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation Induces an Increasing Northern Indian Ocean Sea Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swapna, P.; Jyoti, J.; Krishnan, R.; Sandeep, N.; Griffies, S. M.

2017-10-01

North Indian Ocean sea level has shown significant increase during last three to four decades. Analyses of long-term climate data sets and ocean model sensitivity experiments identify a mechanism for multidecadal sea level variability relative to global mean. Our results indicate that North Indian Ocean sea level rise is accompanied by a weakening summer monsoon circulation. Given that Indian Ocean meridional heat transport is primarily regulated by the annual cycle of monsoon winds, weakening of summer monsoon circulation has resulted in reduced upwelling off Arabia and Somalia and decreased southward heat transport, and corresponding increase of heat storage in the North Indian Ocean. These changes in turn lead to increased retention of heat and increased thermosteric sea level rise in the North Indian Ocean, especially in the Arabian Sea. These findings imply that rising North Indian Ocean sea level due to weakening of monsoon circulation demands adaptive strategies to enable a resilient South Asian population.

Sea-level and deep-sea-temperature variability over the past 5.3 million years.

PubMed

Rohling, E J; Foster, G L; Grant, K M; Marino, G; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

2014-04-24

Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. Here we present a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. We find that deep-sea temperature and sea level generally decreased through time, but distinctly out of synchrony, which is remarkable given the importance of ice-albedo feedbacks on the radiative forcing of climate. In particular, we observe a large temporal offset during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. Last, we tentatively infer that ice sheets may have grown largest during glacials with more modest reductions in deep-sea temperature.

Large-scale forcing of the European Slope Current and associated inflows to the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, Robert; Haigh, Ivan D.; Cunningham, Stuart A.; Inall, Mark E.; Porter, Marie; Moat, Ben I.

2017-04-01

The European Slope Current provides a shelf-edge conduit for Atlantic Water, a substantial fraction of which is destined for the northern North Sea, with implications for regional hydrography and ecosystems. Drifters drogued at 50 m in the European Slope Current at the Hebridean shelf break follow a wide range of pathways, indicating highly variable Atlantic inflow to the North Sea. Slope Current pathways, timescales and transports over 1988-2007 are further quantified in an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast. Particle trajectories calculated with model currents indicate that Slope Current water is largely recruited from the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Observations of absolute dynamic topography and climatological density support theoretical expectations that Slope Current transport is to first order associated with meridional density gradients in the eastern subpolar gyre, which support a geostrophic inflow towards the slope. In the model hindcast, Slope Current transport variability is dominated by abrupt 25-50 % reductions of these density gradients over 1996-1998. Concurrent changes in wind forcing, expressed in terms of density gradients, act in the same sense to reduce Slope Current transport. This indicates that coordinated regional changes of buoyancy and wind forcing acted together to reduce Slope Current transport during the 1990s. Particle trajectories further show that 10-40 % of Slope Current water is destined for the northern North Sea within 6 months of passing to the west of Scotland, with a general decline in this percentage over 1988-2007. Salinities in the Slope Current correspondingly decreased, evidenced in ocean analysis data. Further to the north, in the Atlantic Water conveyed by the Slope Current through the Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC), salinity is observed to increase over this period while declining in the hindcast. The observed trend may have broadly compensated for a decline in the Atlantic inflow, limiting salinity changes in the northern North Sea during this period. Proxies for both Slope Current transport and Atlantic inflow to the North Sea are sought in sea level height differences across the FSC and between Shetland and the Scottish mainland (Wick). Variability of Slope Current transport on a wide range of timescales, from seasonal to multi-decadal, is implicit in sea level differences between Lerwick (Shetland) and Tórshavn (Faroes), in both tide gauge records from 1957 and a longer model hindcast spanning 1958-2012. Wick-Lerwick sea level differences in tide gauge records from 1965 indicate considerable decadal variability in the Fair Isle Current transport that dominates Atlantic inflow to the northwest North Sea, while sea level differences in the hindcast are dominated by strong seasonal variability. Uncertainties in the Wick tide gauge record limit confidence in this proxy.

Grain-size based sea-level reconstruction in the south Bohai Sea during the past 135 kyr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Liang; Chen, Yanping

2013-04-01

Future anthropogenic sea-level rise and its impact on coastal regions is an important issue facing human civilizations. Due to the short nature of the instrumental record of sea-level change, development of proxies for sea-level change prior to the advent of instrumental records is essential to reconstruct long-term background sea-level changes on local, regional and global scales. Two of the most widely used approaches for past sea-level changes are: (1) exploitation of dated geomorphologic features such as coastal sands (e.g. Mauz and Hassler, 2000), salt marsh (e.g. Madsen et al., 2007), terraces (e.g. Chappell et al., 1996), and other coastal sediments (e.g. Zong et al., 2003); and (2) sea-level transfer functions based on faunal assemblages such as testate amoebae (e.g. Charman et al., 2002), foraminifera (e.g. Chappell and Shackleton, 1986; Horton, 1997), and diatoms (e.g. Horton et al., 2006). While a variety of methods has been developed to reconstruct palaeo-changes in sea level, many regions, including the Bohai Sea, China, still lack detailed relative sea-level curves extending back to the Pleistocene (Yi et al., 2012). For example, coral terraces are absent in the Bohai Sea, and the poor preservation of faunal assemblages makes development of a transfer function for a relative sea-level reconstruction unfeasible. In contrast, frequent alternations between transgression and regression has presumably imprinted sea-level change on the grain size distribution of Bohai Sea sediments, which varies from medium silt to coarse sand during the late Quaternary (IOCAS, 1985). Advantages of grainsize-based relative sea-level transfer function approaches are that they require smaller sample sizes, allowing for replication, faster measurement and higher spatial or temporal resolution at a fraction of the cost of detail micro-palaeontological analysis (Yi et al., 2012). Here, we employ numerical methods to partition sediment grain size using a combined database of marine surface and core samples, and to quantitatively reconstruct sea-level variation since the late Pleistocene in the south Bohai Sea, China. New insights into regional relative sea-level changes since the late Pleistocene are obtained (Yi et al., 2012): (1) The grain size of surface and core samples can be mathematically partitioned using the Weibull distribution into four components. These four components with differing modal sizes and percentages could be interpreted as a long-term suspension component, which only settles under low turbulence conditions, sortable silt and very fine sand components transported by suspension during greater turbulence and bedload transport component, respectively. (2) Through regression and rigorous verification techniques, the reference water level could be reconstructed from sediment grain size. The reconstruction quantitatively extends the regional relative sea-level history to the late Pleistocene, providing a comparatively long dataset to evaluate regional sea-level variability. (3) We find no evidence of a sea-level high stand during MIS3 but rather a substantial regression during 70-30 cal kyr BP and potentially exposed land during 38-20 cal kyr BP. These results for the south Bohai Sea are in good agreement with published global sea-level records for the late Pleistocene, implying similarities between local and global sea-level patterns. Therefore, it is concluded that grain-size based sea-level reconstruction provide results that are comparable to other reconstruction methods and demonstrates great potential application for future works. (The data was shared on http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/) References Chappell, J., Omura, A., Esat, T., McCulloch, M., Pandolfi, J., Ota, Y., Pillans, B., 1996. Reconciliation of late Quaternary sea levels derived from coral terraces at Huon Peninsula with deep sea oxygen isotope records. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 141, 227-236. Chappell, J., Shackleton, N.J., 1986. Oxygen isotopes and sea level. Nature 324, 137-140. Charman, D.J., Roe, H.M., Roland Gehrels, W., 2002. Modern distribution of saltmarsh testate amoebae: regional variability of zonation and response to environmental variables. Journal of Quaternary Science 17, 387-409. Horton, B.P., 1997. Quantification of the indicative meaning of a range of Holocene sea-level index points from the western North Sea, Department of Geography. University of Durham, Durham City, UK, p. 509. Horton, B.P., Corbett, R., Culver, S.J., Edwards, R.J., Hillier, C., 2006. Modern saltmarsh diatom distributions of the Outer Banks, North Carolina, and the development of a transfer function for high resolution reconstructions of sea level. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 69, 381-394. IOCAS (Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences), 1985. Bohai Sea Geology. Science Press, Beijing, China. Madsen, A.T., Murray, A.S., Andersen, T.J., Pejrup, M., 2007. Temporal changes of accretion rates on an estuarine salt marsh during the late Holocene -Reflection of local sea level changes? The Wadden Sea, Denmark. Marine Geology 242, 221-233. Mauz, B., Hassler, U., 2000. Luminescence chronology of Late Pleistocene raised beaches in southern Italy: new data of relative sea-level changes. Marine Geology 170, 187-203. Yi, L., Yu, H.J., Ortiz, J.D., Xu, X.Y., Qiang, X.K., Huang, H.J., Shi, X., Deng, C.L., 2012. A reconstruction of late Pleistocene relative sea level in the south Bohai Sea, China, based on sediment grain-size analysis. Sedimentary Geology 281, 88-100. Zong, Y., Shennan, I., Combellick, R.A., Hamilton, S.L., Rutherford, M.M., 2003. Microfossil evidence for land movements associated with the AD 1964 Alaska earthquake. The Holocene 13, 7-20.

Mangrove dieback during fluctuating sea levels.

PubMed

Lovelock, Catherine E; Feller, Ilka C; Reef, Ruth; Hickey, Sharyn; Ball, Marilyn C

2017-05-10

Recent evidence indicates that climate change and intensification of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has increased variation in sea level. Although widespread impacts on intertidal ecosystems are anticipated to arise from the sea level seesaw associated with climate change, none have yet been demonstrated. Intertidal ecosystems, including mangrove forests are among those ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, but they may also be vulnerable to sea level variability and extreme low sea level events. During 16 years of monitoring of a mangrove forest in Mangrove Bay in north Western Australia, we documented two forest dieback events, the most recent one being coincident with the large-scale dieback of mangroves in the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia. Diebacks in Mangrove Bay were coincident with periods of very low sea level, which were associated with increased soil salinization of 20-30% above pre-event levels, leading to canopy loss, reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and reduced recruitment. Our study indicates that an intensification of ENSO will have negative effects on some mangrove forests in parts of the Indo-Pacific that will exacerbate other pressures.

Wind-driven variations in an overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bringedal, Carina; Eldevik, Tor; Spall, Michael

2017-04-01

The Atlantic overturning circulation and poleward heat transport is balanced by northern heat loss to the atmosphere and corresponding water mass transformation. The structure of this circulation and transformation is particularly manifested - and observed - at the Greenland-Scotland ridge. There is however a rich variability in the exchanges across the ridge on seasonal and yearly time scales. This variability has been almost perfectly captured in atmospherically forced ocean GCMs (e.g. Olsen et al 2008, Sandø et al 2012), suggesting that on shorter time scales the variability of the exchanges are connected to sea level pressure and corresponding wind stress forcing. Focusing on seasonal and yearly time scales, we accordingly propose that the connection between the exchanges of overturning waters across the Greenland-Scotland ridge and the sea level pressure must be direct and simple, and we use idealized simulations to support this hypothesis. The mechanisms underlying the connection are formulated through conceptual models. Although the models and simulations are simplified with respect to bathymetry and hydrography, they can reproduce the main features of the overturning circulation in the Nordic seas. In the observations, the variable exchanges can largely be related to sea level pressure variations and large scale wind patterns, and the idealized simulations and accompanying conceptual models show how these impacts can manifest via coastal downwelling and gyre circulation. S. M. Olsen, B. Hansen, D. Quadfasel and S. Østerhus, Observed and modelled stability of overflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge, Nature 455, (2008) A. B. Sandø, J. E. Ø. Nilsen, T. Eldevik and M. Bentsen, Mechanisms for variable North Atlantic-Nordic seas exchanges, Journal of Geophysical Research 117, (2012)

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

2017-01-01

Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

Clusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hummel, Michelle; Wood, Nathan J.; Schweikert, Amy; Stacey, Mark T.; Jones, Jeanne; Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.

2018-01-01

Sea level is projected to rise over the coming decades, further increasing the extent of flooding hazards in coastal communities. Efforts to address potential impacts from climate-driven coastal hazards have called for collaboration among communities to strengthen the application of best practices. However, communities currently lack practical tools for identifying potential partner communities based on similar hazard exposure characteristics. This study uses statistical cluster analysis to identify similarities in community exposure to flooding hazards for a suite of sea level rise and storm scenarios. We demonstrate this approach using 63 jurisdictions in the San Francisco Bay region of California (USA) and compare 21 distinct exposure variables related to residents, employees, and structures for six hazard scenario combinations of sea level rise and storms. Results indicate that cluster analysis can provide an effective mechanism for identifying community groupings. Cluster compositions changed based on the selected societal variables and sea level rise scenarios, suggesting that a community could participate in multiple networks to target specific issues or policy interventions. The proposed clustering approach can serve as a data-driven foundation to help communities identify other communities with similar adaptation challenges and to enhance regional efforts that aim to facilitate adaptation planning and investment prioritization.

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan

2015-01-01

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Preface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodworth, P. L.; Pugh, D. T.; De Ronde, J. G.; Warrick, R. G.; Hannah, J.

The measurement of sea level is of fundamental importance to a wide range of research in climatology, oceanography, geology and geodesy. This volume attempts to cover many aspects of the field. The volume opens with a description by Bolduc and Murty of one of the products stemming from the development of tide gauge networks in the northern and tropical Atlantic. This work is relevant to the growth of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), the main goal of which is to provide the world with an efficient, coherent sea level monitoring system for oceanographic and climatological research. The subsequent four papers present results from the analysis of existing tide gauge data, including those datasets available from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level and the TOGA Sea Level Center. Two of the four, by Wróblewski and by Pasarić and Orlić, are concerned with European sea level changes, while Yu Jiye et al. discuss inter-annual changes in the Pacific, and Wang Baocan et al. describe variability in the Changjiang estuary in China. The papers by El-Abd and A wad, on Red Sea levels, are the only contributions to the volume from the large research community of geologists concerned with sea level changes.

Reconstructing Tropical Pacific Sea Level Variability for the Period 1961-2002 Using a Linear Multimode Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greatbatch, Richard J.; Zhu, Xiaoting; Claus, Martin

2018-03-01

Monthly mean sea level anomalies in the tropical Pacific for the period 1961-2002 are reconstructed using a linear, multimode model driven by monthly mean wind stress anomalies from the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalysis products. Overall, the sea level anomalies reconstructed by both wind stress products agree well with the available tide gauge data, although with poor performance at Kanton Island in the western-central equatorial Pacific and reduced amplitude at Christmas Island. The reduced performance is related to model error in locating the pivot point in sea level variability associated with the so-called "tilt" mode. We present evidence that the pivot point was further west during the period 1993-2014 than during the period 1961-2002 and attribute this to a persistent upward trend in the zonal wind stress variance along the equator west of 160° W throughout the period 1961-2014. Experiments driven by the zonal component of the wind stress alone reproduce much of the trend in sea level found in the experiments driven by both components of the wind stress. The experiments show an upward trend in sea level in the eastern tropical Pacific over the period 1961-2002, but with a much stronger upward trend when using the NCEP/NCAR product. We argue that the latter is related to an overly strong eastward trend in zonal wind stress in the eastern-central Pacific that is believed to be a spurious feature of the NCEP/NCAR product.

Spatial variability and response to anthropogenic pressures of assemblages dominated by a habitat forming seaweed sensitive to pollution (northern coast of Alboran Sea).

PubMed

Bermejo, Ricardo; de la Fuente, Gina; Ramírez-Romero, Eduardo; Vergara, Juan J; Hernández, Ignacio

2016-04-15

The Cystoseira ericaefolia group is conformed by three species: C. tamariscifolia, C. mediterranea and C. amentacea. These species are among the most important habitat forming species of the upper sublittoral rocky shores of the Mediterranean Sea and adjacent Atlantic coast. This species group is sensitive to human pressures and therefore is currently suffering important losses. This study aimed to assess the influence of anthropogenic pressures, oceanographic conditions and local spatial variability in assemblages dominated by C. ericaefolia in the Alboran Sea. The results showed the absence of significant effects of anthropogenic pressures or its interactions with environmental conditions in the Cystoseira assemblages. This fact was attributed to the high spatial variability, which is most probably masking the impact of anthropogenic pressures. The results also showed that most of the variability occurred on at local levels. A relevant spatial variability was observed at regional level, suggesting a key role of oceanographic features in these assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion near a coastal well field in southeastern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langevin, Christian D.; Zygnerski, Michael

2013-01-01

A variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model was developed for the shallow coastal aquifer system near a municipal supply well field in southeastern Florida. The model was calibrated for a 105-year period (1900 to 2005). An analysis with the model suggests that well-field withdrawals were the dominant cause of salt water intrusion near the well field, and that historical sea-level rise, which is similar to lower-bound projections of future sea-level rise, exacerbated the extent of salt water intrusion. Average 2005 hydrologic conditions were used for 100-year sensitivity simulations aimed at quantifying the effect of projected rises in sea level on fresh coastal groundwater resources near the well field. Use of average 2005 hydrologic conditions and a constant sea level result in total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of the well field exceeding drinking water standards after 70 years. When sea-level rise is included in the simulations, drinking water standards are exceeded 10 to 21 years earlier, depending on the specified rate of sea-level rise.

Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

2010-01-01

Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavalieri, D. J.; Haekkinen, S.

2000-01-01

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave I pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach to determine significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, A.; Bates, S. C.

2017-12-01

Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic.

Contemporary Arctic Sea Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazenave, A. A.

2017-12-01

During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic indicates a dominant mass contribution, especially in the Greenland, Norwegian, and Barents Seas sector.

Sea level rise at Honolulu and Hilo, Hawaii: GPS estimates of differential land motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caccamise, Dana J.; Merrifield, Mark A.; Bevis, Michael; Foster, James; Firing, Yvonne L.; Schenewerk, Mark S.; Taylor, Frederick W.; Thomas, Donald A.

2005-02-01

Since 1946, sea level at Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii has risen an average of 1.8 +/- 0.4 mm/yr faster than at Honolulu on the island of Oahu. This difference has been attributed to subsidence of the Big Island. However, GPS measurements indicate that Hilo is sinking relative to Honolulu at a rate of -0.4 +/- 0.5 mm/yr, which is too small to account for the difference in sea level trends. In the past 30 years, there has been a statistically significant reduction in the relative sea level trend. While it is possible that the rates of land motion have changed over this time period, the available hydrographic data suggest that interdecadal variations in upper ocean temperature account for much of the differential sea level signal between the two stations, including the recent trend change. These results highlight the challenges involved in estimating secular sea level trends in the presence of significant low frequency variability.

Incorporating climate change and morphological uncertainty into coastal change hazard assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Heather M.; Ruggiero, Peter; Wood, Nathan J.; Harris, Erica L.; Allan, Jonathan; Komar, Paul D.; Corcoran, Patrick

2015-01-01

Documented and forecasted trends in rising sea levels and changes in storminess patterns have the potential to increase the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of coastal change hazards. To develop realistic adaptation strategies, coastal planners need information about coastal change hazards that recognizes the dynamic temporal and spatial scales of beach morphology, the climate controls on coastal change hazards, and the uncertainties surrounding the drivers and impacts of climate change. We present a probabilistic approach for quantifying and mapping coastal change hazards that incorporates the uncertainty associated with both climate change and morphological variability. To demonstrate the approach, coastal change hazard zones of arbitrary confidence levels are developed for the Tillamook County (State of Oregon, USA) coastline using a suite of simple models and a range of possible climate futures related to wave climate, sea-level rise projections, and the frequency of major El Niño events. Extreme total water levels are more influenced by wave height variability, whereas the magnitude of erosion is more influenced by sea-level rise scenarios. Morphological variability has a stronger influence on the width of coastal hazard zones than the uncertainty associated with the range of climate change scenarios.

Implications of sediment redistribution on modeled sea-level changes over millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrier, Ken

2016-04-01

Sea level is a critical link in feedbacks among topography, tectonics, and climate. Over millennial timescales, changes in sea level reshape river networks, regulate organic carbon burial, influence sediment deposition, and set moving boundary conditions for landscape evolution. Sea-level changes influence tectonics by regulating rates and patterns of erosion and deposition, which perturb the surface loads that drive geodynamic processes at depth. These interactions are complex because sea-level changes are influenced by the geomorphic processes that they themselves modify, since sediment redistribution deforms the gravitational and crustal elevation fields that define sea level. A recent advance in understanding the coupling between sea level, tectonics, and topography was the incorporation of sediment redistribution into a gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model, which permits the computation of sea-level responses to erosion and deposition (Dalca et al., 2013, Geophysical Journal International). Here I use this model to quantify changes in sea level resulting from the erosion of some of the most rapidly eroding sites on Earth and the deposition of sediment offshore. These model results show that the sea-level fingerprints of sediment redistribution are strongly variable in space, and that they can represent a significant component of the total sea level change since the last interglacial. This work provides a basis for understanding a fundamental driver of landscape evolution at some of Earth's most geomorphically dynamic sites, and thus aids investigation of the couplings among tectonics, climate, and topography. References Dalca A.V., Ferrier K.L., Mitrovica J.X., Perron J.T., Milne G.A., Creveling J.R., 2013. On postglacial sea level - III. Incorporating sediment redistribution. Geophysical Journal International, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt089.

Influence of seasonal variations in sea level on the salinity regime of a coastal groundwater-fed wetland.

PubMed

Wood, Cameron; Harrington, Glenn A

2015-01-01

Seasonal variations in sea level are often neglected in studies of coastal aquifers; however, they may have important controls on processes such as submarine groundwater discharge, sea water intrusion, and groundwater discharge to coastal springs and wetlands. We investigated seasonal variations in salinity in a groundwater-fed coastal wetland (the RAMSAR listed Piccaninnie Ponds in South Australia) and found that salinity peaked during winter, coincident with seasonal sea level peaks. Closer examination of salinity variations revealed a relationship between changes in sea level and changes in salinity, indicating that sea level-driven movement of the fresh water-sea water interface influences the salinity of discharging groundwater in the wetland. Moreover, the seasonal control of sea level on wetland salinity seems to override the influence of seasonal recharge. A two-dimensional variable density model helped validate this conceptual model of coastal groundwater discharge by showing that fluctuations in groundwater salinity in a coastal aquifer can be driven by a seasonal coastal boundary condition in spite of seasonal recharge/discharge dynamics. Because seasonal variations in sea level and coastal wetlands are ubiquitous throughout the world, these findings have important implications for monitoring and management of coastal groundwater-dependent ecosystems. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

Evidence of a Weakening Gulf Stream from In-situ Expendable Bathythermograph Data, 1996-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roupe, L.; Baringer, M. O.

2014-12-01

A weakening of the Gulf Stream, the upper branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation system, has been hypothesized to accelerate sea level rise on the east coast of the United States, caused by changes in the Gulf Stream strength and, hence, sea level difference across the current. It still remains unclear if the Gulf Stream has in fact weakened or remains stable, along with the potential role of natural long-term variability. Tide gauges along the east coast show an accelerated sea level rise from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod that is 3-4 times higher than global sea level rise. Satellite altimetry shows a weakening gradient in Gulf Stream sea surface height that is highly correlated (r=-0.85) with east coast sea level rise, however, direct velocity measurements showed no significant decrease in Gulf Stream strength over a similar time period. We introduce another in-situ dataset to examine the issues between these conflicting results. Expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) measure temperature at depth directly, and then depth and salinity can be inferred, along with geostrophic velocity and transport. XBT data has been used to measure transport in various current systems, however, the Gulf Stream transport has not been analyzed using the newest high-density XBT data made available since 1996. The trend in sea level difference is determined to be 3.3 +/- 3.2 mm/yr, resulting in an overall decrease of 5.2 cm in sea level from 1996-2013. This result agrees with satellite altimetry results that show a significant decrease in recent years. This data also shows a changing Gulf Stream core position, based on the 15°C isotherm at 200 m, of 0.03°N/yr that is negatively correlated with surface transport (r=-0.25). Issues remain in defining the core and width of the Gulf Stream and with eliminating the possibility of natural variability in the current system.

Probabilistic Estimates of Global Mean Sea Level and its Underlying Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, C.; Morrow, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2015-12-01

Local sea level can vary significantly from the global mean value due to a suite of processes that includes ongoing sea-level changes due to the last ice age, land water storage, ocean circulation changes, and non-uniform sea-level changes that arise when modern-day land ice rapidly melts. Understanding these sources of spatial and temporal variability is critical to estimating past and present sea-level change and projecting future sea-level rise. Using two probabilistic techniques, a multi-model Kalman smoother and Gaussian process regression, we have reanalyzed 20th century tide gauge observations to produce a new estimate of global mean sea level (GMSL). Our methods allow us to extract global information from the sparse tide gauge field by taking advantage of the physics-based and model-derived geometry of the contributing processes. Both methods provide constraints on the sea-level contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The Kalman smoother tests multiple discrete models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), probabilistically computing the most likely GIA model given the observations, while the Gaussian process regression characterizes the prior covariance structure of a suite of GIA models and then uses this structure to estimate the posterior distribution of local rates of GIA-induced sea-level change. We present the two methodologies, the model-derived geometries of the underlying processes, and our new probabilistic estimates of GMSL and GIA.

Revealing climate modes in steric sea levels: lessons learned from satellite geodesy, objective analyses and ocean reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeffer, J.; Tregoning, P.; Purcell, A. P.

2017-12-01

Due to increased greenhouse gases emissions, the oceans are accumulating heat. In response to the ocean circulation and atmospheric forcing, the heat is irregularly redistributed within the oceans, causing sea level to rise at variable rates in space and time. These rates of steric expansion are extremely difficult to assess because of the sparsity of in-situ hydrographic observations available within the course of the 20th century. We compare here three methods to reconstruct the steric sea levels over the past 13, 25 and 58 years based on satellite geodesy, objective analyses and ocean reanalyses. The interannual to decadal variability of each dataset is explored with a model merging six climate indices representative of the natural variability of the ocean and climate system. Consistent regional patterns are identified for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in all datasets at all timescales. Despite the short time coverage (13 years), the combination of satellite geodetic data (altimetry and GRACE) also reveals significant steric responses to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Indian Dipole (IOD) and Indian ocean basinwide (IOBM) mode. The richer information content in the ocean reanalyses allows us to recover the regional fingerprints of the PDO, ENSO, NPGO, IOD and IOBM, but also of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) acting over longer time scales (40 to 60 years). Therefore, ocean reanalyses, coupled with climate mode analyses, constitute innovative and promising tools to investigate the mechanisms triggering the variability of sea level rise over the past decades.

Regional sea level variability in a high-resolution global coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palko, D.; Kirtman, B. P.

2016-12-01

The prediction of trends at regional scales is essential in order to adapt to and prepare for the effects of climate change. However, GCMs are unable to make reliable predictions at regional scales. The prediction of local sea level trends is particularly critical. The main goal of this research is to utilize high-resolution (HR) (0.1° resolution in the ocean) coupled model runs of CCSM4 to analyze regional sea surface height (SSH) trends. Unlike typical, lower resolution (1.0°) GCM runs these HR runs resolve features in the ocean, like the Gulf Stream, which may have a large effect on regional sea level. We characterize the variability of regional SSH along the Atlantic coast of the US using tide gauge observations along with fixed radiative forcing runs of CCSM4 and HR interactive ensemble runs. The interactive ensemble couples an ensemble mean atmosphere with a single ocean realization. This coupling results in a 30% decrease in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; therefore, the HR interactive ensemble is analogous to a HR hosing experiment. By characterizing the variability in these high-resolution GCM runs and observations we seek to understand what processes influence coastal SSH along the Eastern Coast of the United States and better predict future SLR.

Subtidal sea level variability in a shallow Mississippi River deltaic estuary, Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snedden, G.A.; Cable, J.E.; Wiseman, W.J.

2007-01-01

The relative roles of river, atmospheric, and tidal forcings on estuarine sea level variability are examined in Breton Sound, a shallow (0.7 m) deltaic estuary situated in an interdistributary basin on the Mississippi River deltaic plain. The deltaic landscape contains vegetated marshes, tidal flats, circuitous channels, and other features that frictionally dissipate waves propagating through the system. Direct forcing by local wind stress over the surface of the estuary is minimal, owing to the lack of significant fetch due to landscape features of the estuary. Atmospheric forcing occurs almost entirely through remote forcing, where alongshore winds facilitate estuary-shelf exchange through coastal Ekman convergence. The highly frictional nature of the deltaic landscape causes the estuary to act as a low-pass filter to remote atmospheric forcing, where high-frequency, coastally-induced fluctuations are significantly damped, and the damping increases with distance from the estuary mouth. During spring, when substantial quantities of controlled Mississippi River inputs (q?? = 62 m3 s-1) are discharged into the estuary, upper estuary subtidal sea levels are forced by a combination of river and remote atmospheric forcings, while river effects are less clear downestuary. During autumn (q?? = 7 m3 s-1) sea level variability throughout the estuary is governed entirely by coastal variations at the marine boundary. A frequency-dependent analytical model, previously used to describe sea level dynamics forced by local wind stress and coastal forcing in deeper, less frictional systems, is applied in the shallow Breton Sound estuary. In contrast to deeper systems where coastally-induced fluctuations exhibit little or no frictional attenuation inside the estuary, these fluctuations in the shallow Breton Sound estuary show strong frequency-dependent amplitude reductions that extend well into the subtidal frequency spectrum. ?? 2007 Estuarine Research Federation.

Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

2018-03-01

Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

Variability of the volume and thickness of sea ice in the Bay of Bothnia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronkainen, Iina; Lehtiranta, Jonni; Lensu, Mikko; Rinne, Eero; Hordoir, Robinson; Haapala, Jari

2017-04-01

Variability of the volume and thickness of sea ice in the Bay of Bothnia In our study, we want to quantify the variability of sea ice volume and thickness in the Bay of Bothnia and to introduce the drivers of the observed variability. There has been similar studies, but only for fast ice. We use various different data sets: in-situ ice thickness data, remote sensing data, model data and ice charts. In-situ data is from the regular monitoring stations in the coastal fast ice zone and from field campaigns. The remote sensing data is helicopter-borne and ship-borne electromagnetic data. The models we use are HELMI and NEMO-Nordic. We analyze the different data sets and compare them to each other to solve the inter-annual variability and to discuss the ratio of level and deformed ice.

Time dependent wind fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chelton, D. B.

1986-01-01

Two tasks were performed: (1) determination of the accuracy of Seasat scatterometer, altimeter, and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer measurements of wind speed; and (2) application of Seasat altimeter measurements of sea level to study the spatial and temporal variability of geostrophic flow in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The results of the first task have identified systematic errors in wind speeds estimated by all three satellite sensors. However, in all cases the errors are correctable and corrected wind speeds agree between the three sensors to better than 1 ms sup -1 in 96-day 2 deg. latitude by 6 deg. longitude averages. The second task has resulted in development of a new technique for using altimeter sea level measurements to study the temporal variability of large scale sea level variations. Application of the technique to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current yielded new information about the ocean circulation in this region of the ocean that is poorly sampled by conventional ship-based measurements.

Nordic Sea Level - Analysis of PSMSL RLR Tide Gauge data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole

2015-04-01

Tide gauge data from the Nordic region covering a period of time from 1920 to 2000 are evaluated. 63 stations having RLR data for at least 40 years have been used. Each tide gauge data record was averaged to annual averages after the monthly average seasonal anomalies were removed. Some stations lack data, especially before around 1950. Hence, to compute representative sea level trends for the 1920-2000 period a procedure for filling in estimated sea level values in the voids, is needed. To fill in voids in the tide gauge data records a reconstruction method was applied that utilizes EOF.s in an iterative manner. Subsequently the trends were computed. The estimated trends range from about -8 mm/year to 2 mm/year reflecting both post-glacial uplift and sea level rise. An evaluation of the first EOFs show that the first EOF clearly describes the trends in the time series. EOF #2 and #3 describe differences in the inter-annual sea level variability with-in the Baltic Sea and differences between the Baltic and the North Atlantic / Norwegian seas, respectively.

Contemporary sea level rise.

PubMed

Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

2010-01-01

Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

Effect of sea-level rise on salt water intrusion near a coastal well field in southeastern Florida.

PubMed

Langevin, Christian D; Zygnerski, Michael

2013-01-01

A variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model was developed for the shallow coastal aquifer system near a municipal supply well field in southeastern Florida. The model was calibrated for a 105-year period (1900 to 2005). An analysis with the model suggests that well-field withdrawals were the dominant cause of salt water intrusion near the well field, and that historical sea-level rise, which is similar to lower-bound projections of future sea-level rise, exacerbated the extent of salt water intrusion. Average 2005 hydrologic conditions were used for 100-year sensitivity simulations aimed at quantifying the effect of projected rises in sea level on fresh coastal groundwater resources near the well field. Use of average 2005 hydrologic conditions and a constant sea level result in total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of the well field exceeding drinking water standards after 70 years. When sea-level rise is included in the simulations, drinking water standards are exceeded 10 to 21 years earlier, depending on the specified rate of sea-level rise. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Olympic National Park to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Hammar-Klose, Erika S.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2004-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Olympic National Park (OLYM), Washington. The CVI scores the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. The Olympic National Park coast consists of rocky headlands, pocket beaches, glacial-fluvial features, and sand and gravel beaches. The Olympic coastline that is most vulnerable to sea-level rise are beaches in gently sloping areas.

Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

2018-02-01

This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

Understanding Climate Change and Sea Level: A Case Study of Middle School Student Comprehension and An Evaluation of Tide Gauges off the Panama Canal in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millan-Otoya, Juan C.

The present study had two main objectives. The first was to determine the degree of understanding of climate change, sea level and sea level rise among middle school students. Combining open-ended questions with likert-scaled questions, we identified student conceptions on these topics in 86 students from 7th and 8th grades during 2012 and 2013 before and after implementing a Curriculum Unit (CU). Additional information was obtained by adding drawings to the open-ended questions during the second year to gauge how student conceptions varied from a verbal and a visual perspective. Misconceptions were identified both pre- and post-CU among all the topics taught. Students commonly used climate and climate change as synonyms, sea level was often defined as water depth, and several students failed to understand the complexities that determine changes in sea level due to wind, tides, and changes in sea surface temperature. In general, 8th grade students demonstrated a better understanding of these topics, as reflected in fewer apparent misconceptions after the CU. No previous study had reported such improvement. This showed the value of implementing short lessons. Using Piaget's theories on cognitive development, the differences between 7th and 8th grade students reflect a transition to a more mature level which allowed students to comprehend more complex concepts that included multiple variables. The second objective was to determine if the frequency of sea level maxima not associated with tides over the last 100 years increased in two tide gauges located on the two extremes of the Panama canal, i.e. Balboa in the Pacific Ocean and Cristobal in the Caribbean Sea. These records were compared to time series of regional sea surface temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to determine if these played a role as physical drivers of sea level at either location. Neither record showed an increase in the frequency of sea level maxima events. No parameter analyzed explained variability in sea level maxima in Cristobal. There was a significant correlation between the zonal component of the wind and sea level at Balboa for the early record (r=0.153; p-value<0.05), but for the most part the p-values did not support the hypothesis of a correlation. Similarly, sea surface temperature had an effect on sea level at Balboa, but the null hypothesis that there is no correlation could not be rejected (p-value>0.05). There was a clear relationship between sea level maxima and ENSO. 70% of the years with higher counts of higher sea level events corresponded to El Nino years. A randomization test with 1000 iterations, shuffling the El Nino years, showed most of these randomizations grouped between 14-35% of the events occurring during a randomized El Nino year. In no iteration did the percentage of events that occurred during El Nino years rise above 65%. The correlation with zonal wind and the probable correlation with sea surface temperature can be linked via ENSO, since ENSO is associated with changes in the strength of the Trade Winds and positive anomalies in the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Towards uncertainty estimation for operational forecast products - a multi-model-ensemble approach for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golbeck, Inga; Li, Xin; Janssen, Frank

2014-05-01

Several independent operational ocean models provide forecasts of the ocean state (e.g. sea level, temperature, salinity and ice cover) in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on a daily basis. These forecasts are the primary source of information for a variety of information and emergency response systems used e.g. to issue sea level warnings or carry out oil drift forecast. The forecasts are of course highly valuable as such, but often suffer from a lack of information on their uncertainty. With the aim of augmenting the existing operational ocean forecasts in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea by a measure of uncertainty a multi-model-ensemble (MME) system for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and water transports has been set up in the framework of the MyOcean-2 project. Members of MyOcean-2, the NOOS² and HIROMB/BOOS³ communities provide 48h-forecasts serving as inputs. Different variables are processed separately due to their different physical characteristics. Based on the so far collected daily MME products of SST and SSS, a statistical method, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to assess their spatial and temporal variability. For sea surface currents, progressive vector diagrams at specific points are consulted to estimate the performance of the circulation models especially in hydrodynamic important areas, e.g. inflow/outflow of the Baltic Sea, Norwegian trench and English Channel. For further versions of the MME system, it is planned to extend the MME to other variables like e.g. sea level, ocean currents or ice cover based on the needs of the model providers and their customers. It is also planned to include in-situ data to augment the uncertainty information and for validation purposes. Additionally, weighting methods will be implemented into the MME system to develop more complex uncertainty measures. The methodology used to create the MME will be outlined and different ensemble products will be presented. In addition, some preliminary results based on the statistical analysis of the uncertainty measures provide first estimates of the regional and temporal performance of the ocean models for each parameter. ²Northwest European Shelf Operational Oceanography System ³High-resolution Operational Model of the Baltic / Baltic Operational Oceanographic System

Determination of Interannual to Decadal Changes in Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Busalacchi, Antonioa J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the +/- 25% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to +/- 2 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. Although the overall ice mass balance and seasonal and inter-annual variations can be derived from time-series of ice surface elevations from satellite altimetry, satellite radar altimeters have been limited in spatial coverage and elevation accuracy. Nevertheless, new data analysis shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. In addition, observed seasonal and interannual variations in elevation demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. From 2001, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86 deg latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets. During 3 to 5 years of ICESat-1 operation, an estimate of the overall ice sheet mass balance and sea level contribution will be obtained. The importance of continued ice monitoring after the first ICESat is illustrated by the variability in the area of Greenland surface melt observed over 17-years and its correlation with temperature. In addition, measurement of ice sheet changes, along with measurements of sea level change by a series of ocean altimeters, should enable direct detection of ice level and global sea level correlations.

Corals record long-term Leeuwin current variability including Ningaloo Niño/Niña since 1795

PubMed Central

Zinke, J.; Rountrey, A.; Feng, M.; Xie, S.-P.; Dissard, D.; Rankenburg, K.; Lough, J.M.; McCulloch, M.T.

2014-01-01

Variability of the Leeuwin current (LC) off Western Australia is a footprint of interannual and decadal climate variations in the tropical Indo-Pacific. La Niña events often result in a strengthened LC, high coastal sea levels and unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), termed Ningaloo Niño. The rarity of such extreme events and the response of the southeastern Indian Ocean to regional and remote climate forcing are poorly understood owing to the lack of long-term records. Here we use well-replicated coral SST records from within the path of the LC, together with a reconstruction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to hindcast historical SST and LC strength from 1795 to 2010. We show that interannual and decadal variations in SST and LC strength characterized the past 215 years and that the most extreme sea level and SST anomalies occurred post 1980. These recent events were unprecedented in severity and are likely aided by accelerated global ocean warming and sea-level rise. PMID:24686736

Salinity of the Delaware Estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, Bernard; McCarthy, Leo T.

1962-01-01

The purpose of this investigation was to obtain data on and study the factors affecting the salinity of the Delaware River from Philadelphia, Pa., to the Appoquinimink River, Del. The general chemical quality of water in the estuary is described, including changes in salinity in the river cross section and profile, diurnal and seasonal changes, and the effects of rainfall, sea level, and winds on salinity. Relationships are established of the concentrations of chloride and dissolved solids to specific conductance. In addition to chloride profiles and isochlor plots, time series are plotted for salinity or some quantity representing salinity, fresh-water discharge, mean river level, and mean sea level. The two major variables which appear to have the greatest effect on the salinity of the estuary are the fresh-water flow of the river and sea level. The most favorable combination of these variables for salt-water encroachment occurs from August to early October and the least favorable combination occurs between December and May.

Century and Millennial-scale Changes in the Western Equatorial Pacific Thermocline in Relationship to Higher Latitude Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, T. L. C.; Linsley, B. K.

2017-12-01

The last several glacial-interglacial cycles provide the perfect laboratory for investigating sea level, ocean circulation, and regional climate variability during pronounced global climate transitions. During the most recent deglaciation, the paleo-evidence for the Younger Dryas cold event and preceding meltwater pulse 1A (MWP-1A) and subsequent possible meltwater pulse 1B (MWP-1B) suggests rapid climate variability, in sharp contrast to the gradual deglacial forcing. MWP-1A has been documented in several locations, but there remains a controversy about whether deglacial MWP-1B existed and how much sea level rose across the interval from 11,450 to 11,000 kyr B.P. Due to its location and unusual bathymetry, the Sulu Sea is uniquely situated to monitor western Pacific boundary current (WBC) variability and changes in the proportion of North Pacific vs. South Pacific water in the far western Pacific near the entrance to the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Though the Sulu Sea is a relatively deep basin (>4,000 m), it is isolated from the South China Sea to the North and Sulawesi Sea to the south by shallow sills no deeper than 570 m that limit deepwater ventilation to the basin. As a result, deep basin water below the thermocline is a constant 10° C, a direct function of the ventilating WBCs. Observing past changes in thermocline conditions in the Sulu Sea should provide insight into WBC variability in addition to climate and circulation driven temperature and salinity variability in the South China and Sulawesi Seas. We will present δ18O evidence from the thermocline dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globorotalia tumida extracted from sediment core MD972141 in the Sulu Sea that the thermocline rapidly warmed and/or freshened near the time of MWP-1B. Our new G. tumida δ18O data indicates a 50% larger decrease in δ18O in the thermocline than observed in the surface dwelling Globigerinoides ruber. The Sulu Sea G. tumida δ18O results also indicate relatively cool and salty thermocline conditions from 10,000 kyr BP to 8,400 kyr BP. We will also present new G. tumida and benthic foraminifera Oridorsalis umbonatus δ18O and δ13C results from core MD972141 spanning the last 150 kyr and compare these records to existing G. ruber data from the same core with a focus on comparing Pacific WBC variability across Terminations I and II.

High intraspecific variability in the diet of a deep-sea nematode: Stable isotope and fatty acid analyses of Deontostoma tridentum on Chatham Rise, Southwest Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Daniel; Brown, Julie C. S.; Bury, Sarah J.; Lörz, Anne-Nina

2015-03-01

Small deep-sea organisms may exhibit a high degree of intraspecific variability in diet due to their ability to exploit a wide range of food sources and patchiness in food availability. Trophic interactions of small deep-sea benthic organisms, however, remain poorly understood. Here we describe spatial variation in diet/trophic level of the common deep-sea nematode Deontostoma tridentum on Chatham Rise, Southwest Pacific, using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope and fatty acid analyses. We also analysed sediment organic matter (SOM) and compared the isotopic composition of D. tridentum to other benthic and suprabenthic macrofaunal taxa with a variety of feeding modes. Variability in D. tridentum δ13C and δ15N signatures was high both among sites and within a single site on the southern flank of Chatham Rise. Among-site variation in SOM δ13C signatures was not sufficient to explain variation in nematode isotopic signatures. The presence of a positive correlation between δ13C and δ15N signatures of D. tridentum (both among and within sites) could suggest that differences in trophic level is the cause behind this variation. Nitrogen isotope data suggest the presence of 1-3 trophic levels in this species, which may reflect differences in prey availability, nematode body size, or habitat (benthic versus epizoic). Nematode δ15N values exceeded those of all other taxa we investigated, including other predators, but reasons for this enrichment remain unclear. The fatty acid composition of D. tridentum did not vary substantially between sites and was characterised by relatively high levels of 18:1n9 (15-20%) and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs; 22%). Although limited inferences can be made based on fatty acid composition due to the potential impacts of non-dietary factors, high levels of PUFAs indicate that D. tridentum represents a good source of these essential nutrients to higher trophic levels. In conclusion, our results show that (1) some deep-sea organisms exhibit a high degree of intraspecific variability in diet, and (2) nematodes may be an important source of PUFAs for larger animals in deep-sea environments, where the quality of SOM is low.

Relative sea-level variability recorded by coral microatolls over the past centuries in the Ryukyu arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nathalie, F.; Weil-Accardo, J.; Satake, K.; Goto, T.; Kayanne, H.; Saurel, J. M. M.; Ramos, N. T.; Harada, T.; Goto, K.; Sowa, K.; Nakamura, M.

2017-12-01

Studies on coral microatolls along subduction zones brought new insights about megathrust behaviour and seismic potential, sometimes in disagreement with seismic coupling estimated with usual geodetic tools. Whereas few M8+ earthquakes, whose origin is poorly constrained, were reported along the Ryukyu arc over the past 350 years, the GPS data imply a low coupling rate along the trench and little is known about the Ryukyu megathrust behavior at the intermediate century scale. We started to investigate coral microatolls in this region to reconstruct the relative sea-level (RSL) changes due to tectonics and climates over several centuries. We identified plenty of microatolls along the arc, with variable morphology from cup-shaped corals indicating submergence at Ie-jima to hat-shaped corals indicating emergence at Yoron. We measured and sampled living microatolls in Okinawa, and in Yoron, as well as an 8-m-diameter fossil microatoll in Yoron that died about 50 years ago according to U-Th dating. From the living microatolls, we reconstructed the RSL changes over the last century while about three centuries of record are inferred from the fossil microatoll of Yoron. In Okinawa, we determined a major submergence trend of about 7 mm/yr, which started around 1906 then followed by a slight emergence trend of 1 mm/yr over the last 55 years. In Yoron, the corals recorded periods of emergence, alternating with periods of submergence since 1928. The fossil microatoll in Yoron recorded a similar alternation of submergence and emergence over the last four decades of its record (better preserved from erosion). The satellite altimetry indicates a homogeneous regional sea-level rise in the Ryukyus of 3 mm/yr since at least 1992 (probably since 1950 from sea-level reconstructions) that contrasts with RSL changes recorded by the microatolls of Yoron and Okinawa and with the morphology variability observed among microatolls. This regional sea-level variability is supported by the six longest available tide gauges in the Ryukyus (whose submergence trends vary between 0.5±0.7 mm/yr at Naze and 4.4±1.5 mm/yr at Nakanoshima over the last 50 years) and implies a tectonic signal in addition to the regional sea-level rise that could generate subsidence or uplift. This signal may be due to interseismic strain accumulation and silent earthquakes.

A database of biological and geomorphological sea-level markers from the Last Glacial Maximum to present

PubMed Central

Hibbert, F.D.; Williams, F.H.; Fallon, S.J.; Rohling, E.J.

2018-01-01

The last deglacial was an interval of rapid climate and sea-level change, including the collapse of large continental ice sheets. This database collates carefully assessed sea-level data from peer-reviewed sources for the interval 0 to 25 thousand years ago (ka), from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present interglacial. In addition to facilitating site-specific reconstructions of past sea levels, the database provides a suite of data beyond the range of modern/instrumental variability that may help hone future sea-level projections. The database is global in scope, internally consistent, and contains U-series and radiocarbon dated indicators from both biological and geomorpohological archives. We focus on far-field data (i.e., away from the sites of the former continental ice sheets), but some key intermediate (i.e., from the Caribbean) data are also included. All primary fields (i.e., sample location, elevation, age and context) possess quantified uncertainties, which—in conjunction with available metadata—allows the reconstructed sea levels to be interpreted within both their uncertainties and geological context. PMID:29809175

Sea level, paleogeography, and archeology on California's Northern Channel Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Erlandson, Jon M.; Muhs, Daniel R.; Rick, Torben C.

2015-03-01

Sea-level rise during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene inundated nearshore areas in many parts of the world, producing drastic changes in local ecosystems and obscuring significant portions of the archeological record. Although global forces are at play, the effects of sea-level rise are highly localized due to variability in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects. Interpretations of coastal paleoecology and archeology require reliable estimates of ancient shorelines that account for GIA effects. Here we build on previous models for California's Northern Channel Islands, producing more accurate late Pleistocene and Holocene paleogeographic reconstructions adjusted for regional GIA variability. This region has contributed significantly to our understanding of early New World coastal foragers. Sea level that was about 80-85 m lower than present at the time of the first known human occupation brought about a landscape and ecology substantially different than today. During the late Pleistocene, large tracts of coastal lowlands were exposed, while a colder, wetter climate and fluctuating marine conditions interacted with rapidly evolving littoral environments. At the close of the Pleistocene and start of the Holocene, people in coastal California faced shrinking land, intertidal, and subtidal zones, with important implications for resource availability and distribution.

Sea level, paleogeography, and archeology on California's Northern Channel Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Erlandson, Jon M.; Muhs, Daniel R.; Rick, Torben C.

2015-01-01

Sea-level rise during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene inundated nearshore areas in many parts of the world, producing drastic changes in local ecosystems and obscuring significant portions of the archeological record. Although global forces are at play, the effects of sea-level rise are highly localized due to variability in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects. Interpretations of coastal paleoecology and archeology require reliable estimates of ancient shorelines that account for GIA effects. Here we build on previous models for California's Northern Channel Islands, producing more accurate late Pleistocene and Holocene paleogeographic reconstructions adjusted for regional GIA variability. This region has contributed significantly to our understanding of early New World coastal foragers. Sea level that was about 80–85 m lower than present at the time of the first known human occupation brought about a landscape and ecology substantially different than today. During the late Pleistocene, large tracts of coastal lowlands were exposed, while a colder, wetter climate and fluctuating marine conditions interacted with rapidly evolving littoral environments. At the close of the Pleistocene and start of the Holocene, people in coastal California faced shrinking land, intertidal, and subtidal zones, with important implications for resource availability and distribution.

Changes of the Oceanic Long-term and seasonal variation in a Global-warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Q.; He, Y.; Dong, C.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Gridded absolute dynamic topography (ADT) from AVISO and outputs of sea surface height above geoid from a series of climate models run for CMIP5 are used to analysis global sea level variation. Variance has been calculated to determine the magnitude of change in sea level variation over two decades. Increasing trend of variance of ADT suggests an enhanced fluctuation as well as geostrophic shear of global ocean. To further determine on what scale does the increasing fluctuation dominate, the global absolute dynamic topography (ADT) has been separated into two distinguished parts: the global five-year mean sea surface (MSS) and the residual absolute dynamic topography (RADT). Increased variance of MSS can be ascribed to the nonuniform rising of global sea level and an enhancement of ocean gyres in the Pacific Ocean. While trend in the variance of RADT is found to be close to zero which suggests an unchanged ocean mesoscale variability. The Gaussian-like distribution of global ADT are used to study the change in extreme sea levels. Information entropy has also been adapted in our study. Increasing trend of information entropy which measures the degree of dispersion of a probability distribution suggests more appearance of extreme sea levels. Extreme high sea levels are increasing with a higher growing rate than the mean sea level rise.

Interannual sea level variability in the Pearl River Estuary and its response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Mao, Xian-zhong; Bi, Hongsheng; Yin, Peng

2018-03-01

The South China coast, especially the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) region, is prosperous and densely populated, but vulnerable to sea level changes. Sea level anomalies (SLA) during 1954-2012 from tide gauge station data and regional SLAs during 1993-2012 from satellite altimetry are analyzed and compare to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that sea level declines during El Niño events and rises during La Niña. Sea level in the PRE responds to ENSO with 3-month lag. The ENSO can cause sea level in the PRE to fluctuate from -8.70 to 8.11 cm. Sea level cycles of 3 and 5 years are related to ENSO. The ENSO mechanism affecting sea level in the PRE was analyzed by identifying dominant regional and local forces. Weak/strong SLAs in most El Niño/La Niña events may be attributed to less/more seawater transport driven by anomalously weak/strong north winds and local anomalously high/low sea level pressure. Wind-driven coastal current is the predominant factor. It generated coastal seawater volume transport along a 160 km wide cross section to decrease by 21.07% in a typical El Niño period (January 2010) and increase by 44.03% in a typical La Niña period (January 2011) as compared to an ENSO neutral situation (January 2013). Results of sea level rise and its potential mechanism provide insight for disaster protection during extreme El Niño/La Niña events.

Contribution of vertical land motions to coastal sea level variations: a global synthesis of multisatellite altimetry, tide gauge and GPS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeffer, Julia; Allemand, Pascal

2016-04-01

Coastal sea level variations result from a complex mix of climatic, oceanic and geodynamical processes driven by natural and anthropogenic constraints. Combining data from multiple sources is one solution to identify particular processes and progress towards a better understanding of the sea level variations and the assessment of their impacts at coast. Here, we present a global database merging multisatellite altimetry with tide gauges and Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. Vertical land motions and sea level variations are estimated simultaneously for a network of 886 ground stations with median errors lower than 1 mm/yr. The contribution of vertical land motions to relative sea level variations is explored to better understand the natural hazards associated with sea level rise in coastal areas. Worldwide, vertical land motions dominate 30 % of observed coastal trends. The role of the crust is highly heterogeneous: it can amplify, restrict or counter the effects of climate-induced sea level change. A set of 182 potential vulnerable localities are identified by large coastal subsidence which increases by several times the effects of sea level rise. Though regional behaviours exist, principally caused by GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment), the local variability in vertical land motion prevails. An accurate determination of the vertical motions observed at the coast is fundamental to understand the local processes which contribute to sea level rise, to appraise its impacts on coastal populations and make future predictions.

Investigating the chlorophyll-a variability in the Gulf of Taranto (North-western Ionian Sea) by a multi-temporal analysis of MODIS-Aqua Level 3/Level 2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciancia, Emanuele; Coviello, Irina; Di Polito, Carmine; Lacava, Teodosio; Pergola, Nicola; Satriano, Valeria; Tramutoli, Valerio

2018-03-01

The analysis of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) variability on a long-term basis could allow detecting possible issues in the whole marine ecosystem functioning. The Gulf of Taranto (Southern Italy), in the North-western Ionian Sea (Mediterranean Sea), has been affected by several environmental threats in the last decade, thus deserving the implementation of an adequate monitoring system able to provide accurate indications about the variability of the most relevant bio-optical parameters. In this context, the main objectives of this study are to investigate the long-term chl-a variability in the Gulf of Taranto and identify the occurrence of any past spatiotemporal anomalies by implementing the multi-temporal Robust Satellite Technique (RST) on a 12-year (2003-2015) period of MODIS/AQUA Level 3/Level 2 chlorophyll-a data. The achieved results show well-clustered near-surface positive chl-a anomalies during the January-February 2011 period. This detected offshore phytoplankton bloom may be related to sub-basin processes, such as the inflow of the Western Adriatic Coastal Current (WACC), probably fostered by the cyclonic reversal of the Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS) mechanism. Therefore, the RST approach proved successful in detecting chl-a anomalous variations with a high level of confidence regardless of the absolute value measured, thus suggesting its exportability in other areas with different site-setting conditions.

Increasing Influence of Societal Response Variables in Coastal Evolution Projections (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayes, P. T.; McCoy, C. A.; Pietrafesa, L. J.

2010-12-01

Recent efforts to project changes in coastal erosion and vulnerability of the state of South Carolina’s (SC’s) oceanfront for different scenarios of future sea level have reinforced the significance of the influence of societal modifications and response to past and anticipated coastal change in these systems. For large reaches of the SC coast human interactions have been a dominant signal driving coastal change across annual to decadal scales. Over the last 20 years, SC’s shoreline has been advanced seawards in many areas due to a combination of sustained societal commitment to beach nourishment and to a lull in atmospheric storms; reversing the long-term erosional trend of shoreline change. Adjacent areas not yet threatened or where coastal defense is unsupported economically have continued to migrate landwards. Locally, efforts focused on stabilizing the subaerial beach have not moderated long-term shoreward migration of the shoreface changing the overall morphology of the coastal boundary waves and currents are operating against. These societal effects, coupled with realistic, substative assessments of future atmospheric storm activity and sea level variability, both over scales of seasons to multi-decades, require consideration to realistically project future coastal behavior across time and spatial scales for planning and resource management. As with future climate and sea level variability effects on the shoreline, the scale and intensity of societal response is not static or precisely projected spatially and temporally into the future. With continued expansion of coastal development and erosion into previously lightly developed and defended coastal areas, societal influences should be expected to increase. Increasing cost of larger scale defenses will likely drive pressure for hardened structures to enhance ”softer” nourishment strategies. However, this strategy would further modify the ability of nature to respond to natural forces. Nourishment programs are strongly cyclic and can act in or out of phase with natural cyclic (inlet migration, sea level variability) or stochastic (storms) drivers with significant effects on coastal response and predictions of coastal behavior. Economic cycles and events may similarly moderate timing and scale of coastal defense relative to natural drivers. Societal decisions to not, enhance and or even abandon and remove existing engineering structures as future forces and costs increase, can result in a disproportional response and potentially failure of a section of coast. Some communities have expressed confidence in the ability to maintain the oceanfront shoreline against most projections of sea level rise over the next 100 years. The long-term trend in sea level change may be less important than naturally occurring regional scale, seasonal to inter-annual to multi-decadal variability in sea level; and these are complex but deterministic. There is less confidence, however, in the ability to combat passive submergence and associated flooding issues behind the immediate oceanfront. To the extent that may influence commitment to defend the oceanfront could strongly influence coastal behavior and stability in the long term.

Ecosystem variability in the offshore northeastern Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard, Arny L.; Day, Robert H.; Gall, Adrian E.; Aerts, Lisanne A. M.; Delarue, Julien; Dobbins, Elizabeth L.; Hopcroft, Russell R.; Questel, Jennifer M.; Weingartner, Thomas J.; Wisdom, Sheyna S.

2017-12-01

Understanding influences of cumulative effects from multiple stressors in marine ecosystems requires an understanding of the sources for and scales of variability. A multidisciplinary ecosystem study in the offshore northeastern Chukchi Sea during 2008-2013 investigated the variability of the study area's two adjacent sub-ecosystems: a pelagic system influenced by interannual and/or seasonal temporal variation at large, oceanographic (regional) scales, and a benthic-associated system more influenced by small-scale spatial variations. Variability in zooplankton communities reflected interannual oceanographic differences in waters advected northward from the Bering Sea, whereas variation in benthic communities was associated with seafloor and bottom-water characteristics. Variations in the planktivorous seabird community were correlated with prey distributions, whereas interaction effects in ANOVA for walruses were related to declines of sea-ice. Long-term shifts in seabird distributions were also related to changes in sea-ice distributions that led to more open water. Although characteristics of the lower trophic-level animals within sub-ecosystems result from oceanographic variations and interactions with seafloor topography, distributions of apex predators were related to sea-ice as a feeding platform (walruses) or to its absence (i.e., open water) for feeding (seabirds). The stability of prey resources appears to be a key factor in mediating predator interactions with other ocean characteristics. Seabirds reliant on highly-variable zooplankton prey show long-term changes as open water increases, whereas walruses taking benthic prey in biomass hotspots respond to sea-ice changes in the short-term. A better understanding of how variability scales up from prey to predators and how prey resource stability (including how critical prey respond to environmental changes over space and time) might be altered by climate and anthropogenic stressors is essential to predicting the future state of both the Chukchi and other arctic systems.

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri

2016-03-01

We address the possibilities of a separation of the overall increasing trend in maximum water levels of semi-enclosed water bodies into associated trends in the heights of local storm surges and basin-scale components of the water level based on recorded and modelled local water level time series. The test area is the Baltic Sea. Sequences of strong storms may substantially increase its water volume and raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events are singled out from the water level time series using a weekly-scale average. The trends in the annual maxima of the weekly average have an almost constant value along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast for averaging intervals longer than 4 days. Their slopes are ~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average and decrease with an increase of the averaging interval. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level maxima. Their slopes vary from almost zero for the open Baltic Proper coast up to 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This pattern suggests that an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area but storm duration may have increased and wind direction may have rotated.

Dynamic and Regression Modeling of Ocean Variability in the Tide-Gauge Record at Seasonal and Longer Periods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Emma M.; Ponte, Rui M.; Davis, James L.

2007-01-01

Comparison of monthly mean tide-gauge time series to corresponding model time series based on a static inverted barometer (IB) for pressure-driven fluctuations and a ocean general circulation model (OM) reveals that the combined model successfully reproduces seasonal and interannual changes in relative sea level at many stations. Removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge record produces residual time series with a mean global variance reduction of 53%. The OM is mis-scaled for certain regions, and 68% of the residual time series contain a significant seasonal variability after removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge data. Including OM admittance parameters and seasonal coefficients in a regression model for each station, with IB also removed, produces residual time series with mean global variance reduction of 71%. Examination of the regional improvement in variance caused by scaling the OM, including seasonal terms, or both, indicates weakness in the model at predicting sea-level variation for constricted ocean regions. The model is particularly effective at reproducing sea-level variation for stations in North America, Europe, and Japan. The RMS residual for many stations in these areas is 25-35 mm. The production of "cleaner" tide-gauge time series, with oceanographic variability removed, is important for future analysis of nonsecular and regionally differing sea-level variations. Understanding the ocean model's strengths and weaknesses will allow for future improvements of the model.

Mass Evolution of Mediterranean, Black, Red, and Caspian Seas from GRACE and Altimetry: Accuracy Assessment and Solution Calibration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loomis, B. D.; Luthcke, S. B.

2016-01-01

We present new measurements of mass evolution for the Mediterranean, Black, Red, and Caspian Seas as determined by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) GRACE time-variable global gravity mascon solutions. These new solutions are compared to sea surface altimetry measurements of sea level anomalies with steric corrections applied. To assess their accuracy, the GRACE and altimetry-derived solutions are applied to the set of forward models used by GSFC for processing the GRACE Level-1B datasets, with the resulting inter-satellite range acceleration residuals providing a useful metric for analyzing solution quality.

The Surface Velocity Structure of the Florida Current in a Jet Coordinate Frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archer, Matthew R.; Shay, Lynn K.; Johns, William E.

2017-11-01

The structure and variability of the Florida Current between 25° and 26°N are investigated using HF radar ocean current measurements to provide the most detailed view of the surface jet to date. A 2-D jet coordinate analysis is performed to define lateral displacements of the jet in time (meandering), and associated structural variations over a 2 year period (2005-2006). In the jet coordinate frame, core speed has a median value of ˜160 cm s-1 at the central latitude of the array (25.4°N), with a standard deviation (STD) of 35 cm s-1. The jet meanders at timescales of 3-30 days, with a STD of 8 km, and a downstream phase speed of ˜80 km d-1. Meandering accounts for ˜45% of eddy kinetic energy computed in a fixed (geographical) reference frame. Core speed, width, and shear undergo the same dominant 3-30 day variability, plus an annual cycle that matches seasonality of alongshore wind stress. Jet transport at 25.4°N exhibits a different seasonality to volume transport at 27°N, most likely driven by input from the Northwest Providence Channel. Core speed correlates inversely with Miami sea level fluctuations such that a 40 cm s-1 deceleration is associated with a ˜10 cm elevation in sea level, although there is no correlation of sea level to jet meandering or width. Such accurate quantification of the Florida Current's variability is critical to understand and forecast future changes in the climate system of the North Atlantic, as well as local impacts on coastal circulation and sea level variability along south Florida's coastline.

A New Method for Reconstructing Sea-Level and Deep-Sea-Temperature Variability over the Past 5.3 Million Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohling, E. J.

2014-12-01

Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (d18O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. We have recently presented a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. A serious of caveats applies to this new method, especially in older times of its application, as is always the case with new methods. Independent validation exercises are needed to elucidate where consistency exists, and where solutions drift away from each other. A key observation from our new method is that a large temporal offset existed during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. This observation relies on relative changes within the dataset, which are more robust than absolute values. I will discuss our method and its main caveats and avenues for improvement.

MIS 5e relative sea-level changes in the Mediterranean Sea: Contribution of isostatic disequilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocchi, Paolo; Vacchi, Matteo; Lorscheid, Thomas; de Boer, Bas; Simms, Alexander R.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Vermeersen, Bert L. A.; Pappalardo, Marta; Rovere, Alessio

2018-04-01

Sea-level indicators dated to the Last Interglacial, or Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, have a twofold value. First, they can be used to constrain the melting of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in response to global warming scenarios. Second, they can be used to calculate the vertical crustal rates at active margins. For both applications, the contribution of glacio- and hydro-isostatic adjustment (GIA) to vertical displacement of sea-level indicators must be calculated. In this paper, we re-assess MIS 5e sea-level indicators at 11 Mediterranean sites that have been generally considered tectonically stable or affected by mild tectonics. These are found within a range of elevations of 2-10 m above modern mean sea level. Four sites are characterized by two separate sea-level stands, which suggest a two-step sea-level highstand during MIS 5e. Comparing field data with numerical modeling we show that (i) GIA is an important contributor to the spatial and temporal variability of the sea-level highstand during MIS 5e, (ii) the isostatic imbalance from the melting of the MIS 6 ice sheet can produce a >2.0 m sea-level highstand, and (iii) a two-step melting phase for the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets reduces the differences between observations and predictions. Our results show that assumptions of tectonic stability on the basis of the MIS 5e records carry intrinsically large uncertainties, stemming either from uncertainties in field data and GIA models. The latter are propagated to either Holocene or Pleistocene sea-level reconstructions if tectonic rates are considered linear through time.

Processes governing transient responses of the deep ocean buoyancy budget to a doubling of CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palter, J. B.; Griffies, S. M.; Hunter Samuels, B. L.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2012-12-01

Recent observational analyses suggest there is a temporal trend and high-frequency variability in deep ocean buoyancy in the last twenty years, a phenomenon reproduced even in low-mixing models. Here we use an earth system model (GFDL's ESM2M) to evaluate physical processes that influence buoyancy (and thus steric sea level) budget of the deep ocean in quasi-steady state and under a doubling of CO2. A new suite of model diagnostics allows us to quantitatively assess every process that influences the buoyancy budget and its temporal evolution, revealing surprising dynamics governing both the equilibrium budget and its transient response to climate change. The results suggest that the temporal evolution of the deep ocean contribution to sea level rise is due to a diversity of processes at high latitudes, whose net effect is then advected in the Eulerian mean flow to mid and low latitudes. In the Southern Ocean, a slowdown in convection and spin up of the residual mean advection are approximately equal players in the deep steric sea level rise. In the North Atlantic, the region of greatest deep steric sea level variability in our simulations, a decrease in mixing of cold, dense waters from the marginal seas and a reduction in open ocean convection causes an accumulation of buoyancy in the deep subpolar gyre, which is then advected equatorward.

Measuring progress of the global sea level observing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodworth, Philip L.; Aarup, Thorkild; Merrifield, Mark; Mitchum, Gary T.; Le Provost, Christian

Sea level is such a fundamental parameter in the sciences of oceanography geophysics, and climate change, that in the mid-1980s, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). GLOSS was to improve the quantity and quality of data provided to the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), and thereby, data for input to studies of long-term sea level change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It would also provide the key data needed for international programs, such as the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and later, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR).GLOSS is now one of the main observation components of the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) of IOC and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Progress and deficiencies in GLOSS were presented in July to the 22nd IOC Assembly at UNESCO in Paris and are contained in the GLOSS Assessment Report (GAR) [IOC, 2003a].

Beach Geomorphology and Kemp's Ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) Nest Site Selection along Padre Island, Texas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culver, M.; Gibeaut, J. C.; Shaver, D. J.; Tissot, P.; Starek, M. J.

2017-12-01

The Kemp's ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii) is the most endangered sea turtle in the world, largely due to the limited geographic range of its nesting habitat. In the U.S., the majority of nesting occurs along Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS) in Texas. There has been limited research regarding the connection between beach geomorphology and Kemp's ridley nesting patterns, but studies concerning other sea turtle species suggest that certain beach geomorphology variables, such as beach slope and width, influence nest site selection. This research investigates terrestrial habitat variability of the Kemp's ridley sea turtle and quantifies the connection between beach geomorphology and Kemp's ridley nest site selection on PAIS and South Padre Island, Texas. Airborne topographic lidar data collected annually along the Texas coast from 2009 through 2012 was utilized to extract beach geomorphology characteristics, such as beach slope and width, dune height, and surface roughness, among others. The coordinates of observed Kemp's ridley nests from corresponding years were integrated with the aforementioned data in statistical models, which analyzed the influence of both general trends in geomorphology and individual morphologic variables on nest site selection. This research identified the terrestrial habitat variability of the Kemp's ridley and quantified the range of geomorphic characteristics of nesting beaches. Initial results indicate that dune width, beach width, and wind speed are significant variables in relation to nest presence, using an alpha of 0.1. Higher wind speeds and narrower beaches and foredunes favor nest presence. The average nest elevation is 1.13 m above mean sea level, which corresponds to the area directly below the potential vegetation line, and the majority of nesting occurs between the elevations of 0.68 m and 1.4 m above mean sea level. The results of this study include new information regarding Kemp's ridley beach habitat and its influence on nesting patterns that could be useful for the conservation and management of the species.

Post-Wildfire Potential for Carbon and Nitrogen Sequestration in the Southwestern United States in Restored Ephemeral and Intermittent Stream Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callegary, J. B.; Norman, L.; Eastoe, C. J.; Sankey, J. B.; Youberg, A.

2016-12-01

The Kemp's ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii) is the most endangered sea turtle in the world, largely due to the limited geographic range of its nesting habitat. In the U.S., the majority of nesting occurs along Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS) in Texas. There has been limited research regarding the connection between beach geomorphology and Kemp's ridley nesting patterns, but studies concerning other sea turtle species suggest that certain beach geomorphology variables, such as beach slope and width, influence nest site selection. This research investigates terrestrial habitat variability of the Kemp's ridley sea turtle and quantifies the connection between beach geomorphology and Kemp's ridley nest site selection on PAIS and South Padre Island, Texas. Airborne topographic lidar data collected annually along the Texas coast from 2009 through 2012 was utilized to extract beach geomorphology characteristics, such as beach slope and width, dune height, and surface roughness, among others. The coordinates of observed Kemp's ridley nests from corresponding years were integrated with the aforementioned data in statistical models, which analyzed the influence of both general trends in geomorphology and individual morphologic variables on nest site selection. This research identified the terrestrial habitat variability of the Kemp's ridley and quantified the range of geomorphic characteristics of nesting beaches. Initial results indicate that dune width, beach width, and wind speed are significant variables in relation to nest presence, using an alpha of 0.1. Higher wind speeds and narrower beaches and foredunes favor nest presence. The average nest elevation is 1.13 m above mean sea level, which corresponds to the area directly below the potential vegetation line, and the majority of nesting occurs between the elevations of 0.68 m and 1.4 m above mean sea level. The results of this study include new information regarding Kemp's ridley beach habitat and its influence on nesting patterns that could be useful for the conservation and management of the species.

The Red Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum: implications for sea level reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gildor, H.; Biton, E.; Peltier, W. R.

2006-12-01

The Red Sea (RS) is a semi-enclosed basin connected to the Indian Ocean via a narrow and shallow strait, and surrounded by arid areas which exhibits high sensitivity to atmospheric changes and sea level reduction. We have used the MIT GCM to investigate the changes in the hydrography and circulation in the RS in response to reduced sea level, variability in the Indian monsoons, and changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The model results show high sensitivity to sea level reduction especially in the salinity field (increasing with the reduction in sea level) together with a mild atmospheric impact. Sea level reduction decreases the stratification, increases subsurface temperatures, and alters the circulation pattern at the Strait of Bab el Mandab, which experiences a transition from submaximal flow to maximal flow. The reduction in sea level at LGM alters the location of deep water formation which shifts to an open sea convective site in the northern part of the RS compared to present day situation in which deep water is formed from the Gulf of Suez outflow. Our main result based on both the GCM and on a simple hydraulic control model which takes into account mixing process at the Strait of Bab El Mandeb, is that sea level was reduced by only ~100 m in the Bab El Mandeb region during the LGM, i.e. the water depth at the Hanish sill (the shallowest part in the Strait Bab el Mandab) was around 34 m. This result agrees with the recent reconstruction of the LGM low stand of the sea in this region based upon the ICE-5G (VM2) model of Peltier (2004).

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

PubMed Central

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-01-01

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. PMID:25897996

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-04-21

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2005-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Dry Tortugas National Park in Florida. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) consists of relatively stable to washover-dominated portions of carbonate beach and man-made fortification. The areas within Dry Tortugas that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest rates of shoreline erosion and the highest wave energy.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Theiler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress

2005-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) in North Carolina. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value was calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Cape Hatteras National Seashore consists of stable and washover dominated segments of barrier beach backed by wetland and marsh. The areas within Cape Hatteras that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS) to Sea-Level Rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress; Beavers, Rebecca S.

2004-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Padre Island National Seashore in Texas. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Padre Island National Seashore consists of stable to washover dominated portions of barrier beach backed by wetland, marsh, tidal flat, or grassland. The areas within Padre that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

Challenges in Projecting Sea Level Rise impacts on the Coastal Environment of South Florida (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, J.; Park, J.; Irizarry-Ortiz, M. M.; Barnes, J. A.; Trimble, P.; Said, W.

2010-12-01

Due to flat topography, a highly transmissive groundwater aquifer, and a growing population with the associated infrastructure, South Florida’s coastal environment is one of the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise. Current projections of sea level rise and the associated storm surges will have direct impacts on coastal beaches and infrastructure, flood protection, freshwater aquifers, and both the isolated and regional wetlands. Uncertainties in current projections have made it difficult for regional and local governments to develop adaptation strategies as such measures will depend heavily on the temporal and spatial patterns of sea level rise in the coming decades. We demonstrate the vulnerability of both the built and natural environments of the coastal region and present the current efforts to understand and predict the sea level rise estimate that management agencies could employ in planning of adaptation strategies. In particular, the potential vulnerabilities of the flood control system as well as the threat to the water supply wellfields in the coastal belt will be presented. In an effort to understand the historical variability of sea level rise, we present linkages to natural phenomena such as Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and the analytical methods we have developed to provide probabilistic projections of both mean sea level rise and the extremes.

Distribution of Reynolds stress carried by mesoscale variability in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Thomas J.; Stewart, Robert H.; Shum, C. K.; Tapley, Byron D.

1992-01-01

Satellite altimeter data collected by the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission were used to investigate turbulent stress resulting from the variability of surface geostrophic currents in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The altimeter measured sea level along the subsatellite track. The variability of the along-track slope of sea level is directly proportional to the variability of surface geostrophic currents in the cross-track direction. Because the grid of crossover points is dense at high latitudes, the satellite data could be used for mapping the temporal and spatial variability of the current. Two and a half years of data were used to compute the statistical structure of the variability. The statistics included the probability distribution functions for each component of the current, the time-lagged autocorrelation functions of the variability, and the Reynolds stress produced by the variability. The results demonstrate that stress is correlated with bathymetry. In some areas the distribution of negative stress indicate that eddies contribute to an acceleration of the mean flow, strengthening the hypothesis that baroclinic instability makes important contributions to strong oceanic currents.

Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales

PubMed Central

Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.

2013-01-01

On 103- to 106-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely reflects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO2 and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO2 in determining Earth’s climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relationship between CO2 and sea level we describe portrays the “likely” (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely independent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance, with CO2 stabilized at 400–450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted “acceptable warming” of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO2 should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times. PMID:23292932

A 6,700 years sea-level record based on French Polynesian coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Botella, Albéric; Milne, Glenn; Fietzke, Jan; Dussouillez, Philippe

2015-04-01

Sea-level change during the Mid- to Late Holocene has a similar amplitude to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the 21st century providing a unique opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change and to reveal an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed using coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. Absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements is crucial for an accurate reconstruction of sea-level change. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level. Growth pattern analysis allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

North Atlantic sub-decadal variability in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reintges, Annika; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2017-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant variability mode for the winter climate of the North Atlantic sector. During a positive (negative) NAO phase, the sea level pressure (SLP) difference between the subtropical Azores high and the subpolar Icelandic low is anomalously strong (weak). This affects, for example, temperature, precipitation, wind, and surface heat flux over the North Atlantic, and over large parts of Europe. In observations we find enhanced sub-decadal variability of the NAO index that goes along with a dipolar sea surface temperature (SST) pattern. The corresponding SLP and SST patterns are reproduced in a control experiment of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Large-scale air-sea interaction is suggested to be essential for the North Atlantic sub-decadal variability in the KCM. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a key role, setting the timescale of the variability by providing a delayed negative feedback to the NAO. The interplay of the NAO and the AMOC on the sub-decadal timescale is further investigated in the CMIP5 model ensemble. For example, the average CMIP5 model AMOC pattern associated with sub-decadal variability is characterized by a deep-reaching dipolar structure, similar to the KCM's sub-decadal AMOC variability pattern. The results suggest that dynamical air-sea interactions are crucial to generate enhanced sub-decadal variability in the North Atlantic climate.

Reconstruction from EOF analysis of SMOS salinity data in Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parard, Gaelle; Alvera-Azcárate, Aida; Barth, Alexander; Olmedo, Estrella; Turiel, Antonio; Becker, Jean-Marie

2017-04-01

Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) data from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission is reconstructed in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea using DINEOF (Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions). We used the satellite data Level 2 from SMOS Barcelona Expert Centre between 2011 and 2015. DINEOF is a technique that reconstructs missing data and removes noise by retaining only an optimal set of EOFs. DINEOF analysis is used to detect and remove outliers from the SMOS SSS daily field. The gain obtained with DINEOF method and L2 SMOS data give a higher spatial and temporal resolution between 2011 and 2015, allow to study the SSS variability from daily to seasonal resolution. In order to improve the SMOS salinity data reconstruction we combine with other parameters measured from satellite such chlorophyll, sea surface temperature, precipitation and CDOM variability. After a validation of the SMOS satellite data reconstruction with in situ data (CTD, Argo float salinity measurement) in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea, the main SSS processes and their variability are studied. The gain obtained with the higher spatial and temporal resolution with SMOS salinity data give assess to study the characteristics of oceanic structures in North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea.

Mass-induced sea level variations in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry, GRACE, in-situ bottom pressure records, and hydrographic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Wei; Lemoine, Jean-Michel; Zhong, Min; Xu, Houze

2014-05-01

An annual amplitude of ~18 cm mass-induced sea level variations (SLV) in the Red Sea is detected from steric-corrected altimetry and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites from 2003 to 2011, which dominates the mean sea level in the region. Seawater mass variations here generally reach maximum in late January/early February. The steric component of SLV calculated from oceanographic temperature and salinity data is relatively small and peaks about seven months later than mass variations. The phase difference between the steric SLV and the mass-induced SLV indicates that when the Red Sea gains the mass from inflow water in winter, the steric SLV fall, and vice versa in summer. In-situ bottom pressure records in the eastern coast of the Red Sea validate the high mass variability observed by steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE. Furthermore, we compare the horizontal water mass flux in the Red Sea from steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE with that estimated from hydrographic observations.

Sea level variability influencing coastal flooding in the Swan River region, Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliot, Matt

2012-02-01

Coastal flooding refers to the incidence of high water levels produced by water level fluctuations of marine origin, rather than riverine floods. An understanding of the amplitude and frequency of high water level events is essential to foreshore management and the design of many coastal and estuarine facilities. Coastal flooding events generally determine public perception of sea level phenomena, as they are commonly associated with erosion events. This investigation has explored the nature of coastal flooding events affecting the Swan River Region, Western Australia, considering water level records at four sites in the estuary and lower river, extending from the mouth of the Swan River to 40 km upstream. The analysis examined the significance of tides, storms and mean sea level fluctuations over both seasonal and inter-annual time scales. The relative timing of these processes is significant for the enhanced or reduced frequency of coastal flooding. These variations overlie net sea level rise previously reported from the coastal Fremantle record, which is further supported by changes to the distribution of high water level events at an estuarine tidal station. Seasonally, coastal flooding events observed in the Swan River region are largely restricted to the period from May to July due to the relative phases of the annual mean sea fluctuation and biannual tidal cycle. Although significant storm surge events occur outside this period, their impact is normally reduced, as they are superimposed on lower tidal and mean sea level conditions. Over inter-annual time scales tide, storminess and mean sea level produce cycles of enhanced and depressed frequency of coastal flooding. For the Swan River region, the inter-annual tidal variation is regular, dominated by the 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle. Storminess and mean sea level variations are independent and irregular, with cycles from 3 to 10 year duration. Since 1960, these fluctuations have not occurred in phase, suggesting that recent historic records may not provide a real indication of inundation risk, exclusive of factors linked to climate change. The burst-like nature of coastal flooding incidents, with respect to frequency, has implications for both public perception and coastal management effort. The result, when combined with sea level rise, produces step-like change, with short periods of frequent coastal flooding, followed by extended, slowly varying quiescent periods. This presents challenges for coastal managers to incorporate variability into projections of future management needs, and to ensure that public and political recognition of coastal flooding hazard is not downplayed during quiet periods.

A new phase in the production of quality-controlled sea level data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quartly, Graham D.; Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michaël; Zawadzki, Lionel; Joana Fernandes, M.; Rudenko, Sergei; Carrère, Loren; Nilo García, Pablo; Cipollini, Paolo; Andersen, Ole B.; Poisson, Jean-Christophe; Mbajon Njiche, Sabrina; Cazenave, Anny; Benveniste, Jérôme

2017-08-01

Sea level is an essential climate variable (ECV) that has a direct effect on many people through inundations of coastal areas, and it is also a clear indicator of climate changes due to external forcing factors and internal climate variability. Regional patterns of sea level change inform us on ocean circulation variations in response to natural climate modes such as El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and anthropogenic forcing. Comparing numerical climate models to a consistent set of observations enables us to assess the performance of these models and help us to understand and predict these phenomena, and thereby alleviate some of the environmental conditions associated with them. All such studies rely on the existence of long-term consistent high-accuracy datasets of sea level. The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) of the European Space Agency was established in 2010 to provide improved time series of some ECVs, including sea level, with the purpose of providing such data openly to all to enable the widest possible utilisation of such data. Now in its second phase, the Sea Level CCI project (SL_cci) merges data from nine different altimeter missions in a clear, consistent and well-documented manner, selecting the most appropriate satellite orbits and geophysical corrections in order to further reduce the error budget. This paper summarises the corrections required, the provenance of corrections and the evaluation of options that have been adopted for the recently released v2.0 dataset (https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612). This information enables scientists and other users to clearly understand which corrections have been applied and their effects on the sea level dataset. The overall result of these changes is that the rate of rise of global mean sea level (GMSL) still equates to ˜ 3.2 mm yr-1 during 1992-2015, but there is now greater confidence in this result as the errors associated with several of the corrections have been reduced. Compared with v1.1 of the SL_cci dataset, the new rate of change is 0.2 mm yr-1 less during 1993 to 2001 and 0.2 mm yr-1 higher during 2002 to 2014. Application of new correction models brought a reduction of altimeter crossover variances for most corrections.

A Coastal Hazards Data Base for the U.S. West Coast (1997) (NDP-043C)

DOE Data Explorer

Gomitz, Vivien M. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Beaty, Tammy W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Daniels, Richard C. [The University of Tennessee, Knoville, TN (United States)

1997-01-01

This data base integrates point, line, and polygon data for the U.S. West Coast into 0.25 degree latitude by 0.25 degree longitude grid cells and into 1:2,000,000 digitized line segments that can be used by raster or vector geographic information systems (GIS) as well as by non-GIS data bases. Each coastal grid cell and line segment contains data variables from the following seven data sets: elevation, geology, geomorphology, sea-level trends, shoreline displacement (erosion/accretion), tidal ranges, and wave heights. One variable from each data set was classified according to its susceptibility to sea-level rise and/or erosion to form 7 relative risk variables. These risk variables range in value from 1 to 5 and may be used to calculate a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Algorithms used to calculate several CVIs are listed within this text.

Extreme Statistics of Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, E. A.; Medvedev, I. P.

2017-11-01

Statistical analysis of the extreme values of the Baltic Sea level has been performed for a series of observations for 15-125 years at 13 tide gauge stations. It is shown that the empirical relation between value of extreme sea level rises or ebbs (caused by storm events) and its return period in the Baltic Sea can be well approximated by the Gumbel probability distribution. The maximum values of extreme floods/ebbs of the 100-year recurrence were observed in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The two longest data series, observed in Stockholm and Vyborg over 125 years, have shown a significant deviation from the Gumbel distribution for the rarest events. Statistical analysis of the hourly sea level data series reveals some asymmetry in the variability of the Baltic Sea level. The probability of rises proved higher than that of ebbs. As for the magnitude of the 100-year recurrence surge, it considerably exceeded the magnitude of ebbs almost everywhere. This asymmetry effect can be attributed to the influence of low atmospheric pressure during storms. A statistical study of extreme values has also been applied to sea level series for Narva over the period of 1994-2000, which were simulated by the ROMS numerical model. Comparisons of the "simulated" and "observed" extreme sea level distributions show that the model reproduces quite satisfactorily extreme floods of "moderate" magnitude; however, it underestimates sea level changes for the most powerful storm surges.

Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Woodworth, P. L.; Albrecht, F.; Dillingh, D.; Jensen, J.; Nicholls, R. J.; Weisse, R.; Wöppelmann, G.

2013-09-01

This paper assesses historic changes in mean sea level around the coastline of the North Sea, one of the most densely populated coasts in the world. Typically, such analyses have been conducted at a national level, and detailed geographically wider analyses have not been undertaken for about 20 years. We analyse long records (up to 200 years) from 30 tide gauge sites, which are reasonably uniformly distributed along the coastline, and: (1) calculate relative sea level trends; (2) examine the inter-annual and decadal variations; (3) estimate regional geocentric (sometimes also referred to as 'absolute') sea level rise throughout the 20th century; and (4) assess the evidence for regional acceleration of sea-level rise. Relative sea level changes are broadly consistent with known vertical land movement patterns. The inter-annual and decadal variability is partly coherent across the region, but with some differences between the Inner North Sea and the English Channel. Data sets from various sources are used to provide estimates of the geocentric sea level changes. The long-term geocentric mean sea level trend for the 1900 to 2011 period is estimated to be 1.5 ± 0.1 mm/yr for the entire North Sea region. The trend is slightly higher for the Inner North Sea (i.e. 1.6 ± 0.1 mm/yr), and smaller but not significantly different on the 95% confidence level for the English Channel (i.e. 1.2 ± 0.1 mm/yr). The uncertainties in the estimates of vertical land movement rates are still large, and the results from a broad range of approaches for determining these rates are not consistent. Periods of sea level rise acceleration are detected at different times throughout the last 200 years and are to some extent related to air pressure variations. The recent rates of sea level rise (i.e. over the last two to three decades) are high compared to the long-term average, but are comparable to those which have been observed at other times in the late 19th and 20th century.

Mass-induced sea level variations in the Red Sea from GRACE, steric-corrected altimetry, in situ bottom pressure records, and hydrographic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, W.; Lemoine, J.-M.; Zhong, M.; Hsu, H. T.

2014-08-01

An annual amplitude of ∼18 cm mass-induced sea level variations (SLV) in the Red Sea is detected from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and steric-corrected altimetry from 2003 to 2011. The annual mass variations in the region dominate the mean SLV, and generally reach maximum in late January/early February. The annual steric component of the mean SLV is relatively small (<3 cm) and out of phase of the mass-induced SLV. In situ bottom pressure records at the eastern coast of the Red Sea validate the high mass variability observed by steric-corrected altimetry and GRACE. In addition, the horizontal water mass flux of the Red Sea estimated from GRACE and steric-corrected altimetry is validated by hydrographic observations.

Antarctic Climate Variability: Covariance of Ozone and Sea Ice in Atmosphere - Ocean Coupled Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jrrar, Amna; Abraham, N. Luke; Pyle, John A.; Holland, David

2014-05-01

Changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change because of its high reflective and insulating nature. While Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) shows a negative trend. Antarctic SIE shows a weak but positive trend, estimated at 0.127 x 106 km2 per decade. The trend results from large regional cancellations, more ice in the Weddell and the Ross seas, and less ice in the Amundsen - Bellingshausen seas. A number of studies had demonstrated that stratospheric ozone depletion has had a major impact on the atmospheric circulation, causing a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which has been linked to the observed positive trend in autumn sea ice in the Ross Sea. However, other modelling studies show that models forced with prescribed ozone hole simulate decreased sea ice in all regions comparative to a control run. A recent study has also shown that stratospheric ozone recovery will mitigate Antarctic sea ice loss. To verify this assumed relationship, it is important first to investigate the covariance between ozone's natural (dynamical) variability and Antarctic sea ice distribution in pre-industrial climate, to estimate the trend due to natural variability. We investigate the relationship between anomalous Antarctic ozone years and the subsequent changes in Antarctic sea ice distribution in a multidecadal control simulation using the AO-UMUKCA model. The model has a horizontal resolution of 3.75 X 2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude; and 60 hybrid height levels in the vertical, from the surface up to a height of 84 km. The ocean component is the NEMO ocean model on the ORCA2 tripolar grid, and the sea ice model is CICE. We evaluate the model's performance in terms of sea ice distribution, and we calculate sea ice extent trends for composites of anomalously low versus anomalously high SH polar ozone column. We apply EOF analysis to the seasonal anomalies of sea ice concentration, MSLP, and Z 500, and identify the leading climate modes controlling the variability of Antarctic sea ice in each case, and study their relationship with SH polar ozone column.

Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

DOE PAGES

Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.

2016-08-10

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This maskingmore » arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. As a result, a consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.« less

Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.

Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This maskingmore » arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. As a result, a consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.« less

Covariance Between Arctic Sea Ice and Clouds Within Atmospheric State Regimes at the Satellite Footprint Level

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Patrick C.; Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cai, Ming

2015-01-01

Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

Covariance between Arctic sea ice and clouds within atmospheric state regimes at the satellite footprint level

PubMed Central

Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan‐Man; Cai, Ming

2015-01-01

Abstract Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice‐cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint‐level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A‐Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and midtropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest‐magnitude cloud‐sea ice covariance occurs between 500 m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near‐surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations. PMID:27818851

Covariance between Arctic sea ice and clouds within atmospheric state regimes at the satellite footprint level.

PubMed

Taylor, Patrick C; Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cai, Ming

2015-12-27

Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and midtropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500 m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

Age accuracy and resolution of Quaternary corals used as proxies for sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edinger, E. N.; Burr, G. S.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Ortiz, J. C.

2007-01-01

The accuracy of global eustatic sea level curves measured from raised Quaternary reefs, using radiometric ages of corals at known heights, may be limited by time-averaging, which affects the variation in coral age at a given height. Time-averaging was assessed in uplifted Holocene reef sequences from the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea, using radiocarbon dating of coral skeletons in both horizontal transects and vertical sequences. Calibrated 2σ age ranges varied from 800 to 1060 years along horizontal transects, but weighted mean ages calculated from 15-18 dates per horizon were accurate to a resolution within 154-214 yr. Approximately 40% of the variability in age estimate resulted from internal variability inherent to 14C estimates, and 60% was due to time-averaging. The accuracy of age estimates of sea level change in studies using single dated corals as proxies for sea level is probably within 1000 yr of actual age, but can be resolved to ≤ 250 yr if supported by dates from analysis of a statistical population of corals at each stratigraphic interval. The range of time-averaging among reef corals was much less than that for shelly benthos. Ecological time-averaging dominated over sedimentological time averaging for reef corals, opposite to patterns reported from shelly benthos in siliciclastic environments.

Effects of nonlethal sea lamprey attack on the blood chemistry of lake trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edsall, Carol Cotant; Swink, William D.

2001-01-01

A laboratory study examined changes in the blood chemistry of field-caught and hatchery-reared lake trout Salvelinus namaycush subjected to a nonlethal attack by sea lampreys Petromyzon marinus. We measured glucose, total protein, amylase, alkaline phosphatase (ALKP), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), creatine kinase, calcium, magnesium, triglycerides, sodium, and potassium with a Kodak Ektachem DT60 Analyzer, Ektachem DTSC Module, and the DTE Module. Mean levels of total protein, AST, ALKP, hematocrit, calcium, magnesium, and sodium decreased significantly (Pa?? 0.05), and mean levels of ALT and potassium increased significantly (Pa?? 0.05) after sea lamprey feeding. Lake trout condition (K) and hematocrit levels also decreased significantly (Pa?? 0.05) after the sea lamprey attack. Frequency distributions of eight lake trout blood chemistry variables and the hematocrit were significantly different before and after a sea lamprey attack. A second study that used hatchery lake trout broodstock measured changes in hematocrit before and after a sea lamprey attack.

Examining global extreme sea level variations on the coast from in-situ and remote observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menendez, Melisa; Benkler, Anna S.

2017-04-01

The estimation of extreme water level values on the coast is a requirement for a wide range of engineering and coastal management applications. In addition, climate variations of extreme sea levels on the coastal area result from a complex interacting of oceanic, atmospheric and terrestrial processes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, variations of extreme sea level return values are investigated from two available sources of information: in-situ tide-gauge records and satellite altimetry data. Long time series of sea level from tide-gauge records are the most valuable observations since they directly measure water level in a specific coastal location. They have however a number of sources of in-homogeneities that may affect the climate description of extremes when this data source is used. Among others, the presence of gaps, historical time in-homogeneities and jumps in the mean sea level signal are factors that can provide uncertainty in the characterization of the extreme sea level behaviour. Moreover, long records from tide-gauges are sparse and there are many coastal areas worldwide without in-situ available information. On the other hand, with the accumulating altimeter records of several satellite missions from the 1990s, approaching 25 recorded years at the time of writing, it is becoming possible the analysis of extreme sea level events from this data source. Aside the well-known issue of altimeter measurements very close to the coast (mainly due to corruption by land, wet troposphere path delay errors and local tide effects on the coastal area), there are other aspects that have to be considered when sea surface height values estimated from satellite are going to be used in a statistical extreme model, such as the use of a multi-mission product to get long observed periods and the selection of the maxima sample, since altimeter observations do not provide values uniform in time and space. Here, we have compared the extreme values of 'still water level' and 'non-tidal-residual' of in-situ records from the GESLA2 dataset (Woodworth et al. 2016) against the novel coastal altimetry datasets (Cipollini et al. 2016). Seasonal patterns, inter-annual variability and long-term trends are analyzed. Then, a time-dependent extreme model (Menendez et al. 2009) is applied to characterize extreme sea level return values and their variability on the coastal area around the world.

Polar ice-sheet contributions to sea level during past warm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, A.

2015-12-01

Recent sea-level rise has been dominated by thermal expansion and glacier loss, but the contribution from mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions under future sustained warming. Due to limitations of existing ice sheet models and the lack of relevant analogues in the historical record, projecting the timing and magnitude of polar ice sheet mass loss in the future remains challenging. One approach to improving our understanding of how polar ice-sheet retreat will unfold is to integrate observations and models of sea level, ice sheets, and climate during past intervals of warmth when the polar ice sheets contributed to higher sea levels. A recent review evaluated the evidence of polar ice sheet mass loss during several warm periods, including interglacials during the mid-Pliocene warm period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, 5e (Last Interglacial), and 1 (Holocene). Sea-level benchmarks of ice-sheet retreat during the first of these three periods, when global mean climate was ~1 to 3 deg. C warmer than preindustrial, are useful for understanding the long-term potential for future sea-level rise. Despite existing uncertainties in these reconstructions, it is clear that our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, resulting in a conservative estimate for a global mean sea-level rise of 6 meters above present (or more). This presentation will focus on identifying the approaches that have yielded significant advances in terms of past sea level and ice sheet reconstruction as well as outstanding challenges. A key element of recent advances in sea-level reconstructions is the ability to recognize and quantify the imprint of geophysical processes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography, that lead to significant spatial variability in sea level reconstructions. Identifying specific ice-sheet sources that contributed to higher sea levels is a challenge that is currently hindered by limited field evidence at high latitudes. Finally, I will explore the concept of how increasing the quantity and quality of paleo sea level and ice sheet reconstructions can lead to improved quantification of contemporary changes in ice sheets and sea level.

Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene sea-level change from coral microatolls, French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Botella, Alberic; Milne, Glenn; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Pothin, Virginie; Dussouillez, Philippe; Fleury, Jules; Fietzke, Jan

2017-04-01

Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the industrial revolution. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A step-like sea-level rise is evidenced between 6 and 3.9 ka leading to a short sea-level highstand of about a meter in amplitude between 3.9 and 3.6 ka. A sea-level fall, at an average rate of 0.3 mm.yr-1, is recorded between 3.6 and 1.2 ka when sea level approached its present position. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Record in French Polynesia, South-Central Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Vella, C.; Eisenhauer, A.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Fietzke, J.; Dussouillez, P.; Plaine, J.

2014-12-01

The Mid- to Late Holocene provides the opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change that has a similar amplitude (i.e., a few decimetres up to 1 m) to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the current century. Furthermore, this time period provides an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. This study aims to reconstruct Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia by examining coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level change studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets ('far-field'), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. The accurate reconstruction of sea-level change relies on absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements with a vertical and horizontal precision of ± 2.5 cm and ~1 cm, respectively. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the water level. Their growth patterns allow the reconstruction of low-amplitude and high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than ~1 m is documented between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Interannual Variation of Surface Circulation in the Japan/East Sea due to External Forcings and Intrinsic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Byoung-Ju; Cho, Seong Hun; Jung, Hee Seok; Lee, Sang-Ho; Byun, Do-Seong; Kwon, Kyungman

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of surface ocean currents can be as large as seasonal variation in the Japan/East Sea (JES). To identify the major factors that cause such interannual variability of surface ocean circulation in the JES, surface circulation was simulated from 1998 to 2009 using a three-dimensional model. Contributions of atmospheric forcing (ATM), open boundary data (OBC), and intrinsic variability (ITV) of the surface flow in the JES on the interannual variability of surface ocean circulation were separately examined using numerical simulations. Variability in surface circulation was quantified in terms of variance in sea surface height, 100-m depth water temperature, and surface currents. ITV was found to be the dominant factor that induced interannual variabilities of surface circulation, the main path of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC), and surface kinetic energy on a time scale of 2-4 years. OBC and ATM were secondary factors contributing to the interannual variation of surface circulation. Interannual variation of ATM changed the separation latitude of EKWC and increased the variability of surface circulation in the Ulleung Basin. Interannual variation of OBC enhanced low-frequency changes in surface circulation and eddies in the Yamato Basin. It also modulated basin-wide uniform oscillations of sea level. This study suggests that precise estimation of initial conditions using data assimilation is essential for long-term prediction of surface circulation in the JES.

Hookworm infection, anaemia and genetic variability of the New Zealand sea lion.

PubMed

Acevedo-Whitehouse, Karina; Petetti, Laura; Duignan, Padraig; Castinel, Aurelie

2009-10-07

Hookworms are intestinal blood-feeding nematodes that parasitize and cause high levels of mortality in a wide range of mammals, including otariid pinnipeds. Recently, an empirical study showed that inbreeding (assessed by individual measures of multi-locus heterozygosity) is associated with hookworm-related mortality of California sea lions. If inbreeding increases susceptibility to hookworms, effects would expectedly be stronger in small, fragmented populations. We tested this assumption in the New Zealand sea lion, a threatened otariid that has low levels of genetic variability and high hookworm infection rates. Using a panel of 22 microsatellites, we found that average allelic diversity (5.9) and mean heterozygosity (0.72) were higher than expected for a small population with restricted breeding, and we found no evidence of an association between genetic variability and hookworm resistance. However, similar to what was observed for the California sea lion, homozygosity at a single locus explained the occurrence of anaemia and thrombocytopenia in hookworm-infected pups (generalized linear model, F = 11.81, p < 0.001) and the effect was apparently driven by a particular allele (odds ratio = 34.95%; CI: 7.12-162.41; p < 0.00001). Our study offers further evidence that these haematophagus parasites exert selective pressure on otariid blood-clotting processes.

Hookworm infection, anaemia and genetic variability of the New Zealand sea lion

PubMed Central

Acevedo-Whitehouse, Karina; Petetti, Laura; Duignan, Padraig; Castinel, Aurelie

2009-01-01

Hookworms are intestinal blood-feeding nematodes that parasitize and cause high levels of mortality in a wide range of mammals, including otariid pinnipeds. Recently, an empirical study showed that inbreeding (assessed by individual measures of multi-locus heterozygosity) is associated with hookworm-related mortality of California sea lions. If inbreeding increases susceptibility to hookworms, effects would expectedly be stronger in small, fragmented populations. We tested this assumption in the New Zealand sea lion, a threatened otariid that has low levels of genetic variability and high hookworm infection rates. Using a panel of 22 microsatellites, we found that average allelic diversity (5.9) and mean heterozygosity (0.72) were higher than expected for a small population with restricted breeding, and we found no evidence of an association between genetic variability and hookworm resistance. However, similar to what was observed for the California sea lion, homozygosity at a single locus explained the occurrence of anaemia and thrombocytopenia in hookworm-infected pups (generalized linear model, F = 11.81, p < 0.001) and the effect was apparently driven by a particular allele (odds ratio = 34.95%; CI: 7.12–162.41; p < 0.00001). Our study offers further evidence that these haematophagus parasites exert selective pressure on otariid blood-clotting processes. PMID:19605394

Doomed to Drown? Sediment Dynamics, Infrastructure, and the Threat of Sea Level Rise in the Bengal Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, K. G.; Overeem, I.

2017-12-01

The Bengal Delta in Bangladesh is regularly described as a "delta in peril" of catastrophic coastal flooding. In order to maintain a positive surface elevation, sediment aggradation on the delta must be equal to or greater than that of local sea level rise. Paradoxically, widespread armoring of the delta by coastal embankments meant to protect crops from tidal flooding has limited fluvial floodplain deposition, leading to rapid compaction and lowered land surface levels. This renders the floodplains of the delta susceptible to devastating flooding by sea level rise and storm surges capable of breaching the poorly maintained embankments. The government of Bangladesh is currently considering a one-size-fits-all approach to renovating the embankments under the assumption that sediment dynamics in the delta are everywhere the same. However, natural physical processes are spatially variable across the delta front and therefore the impact of dikes on sediment dispersal and morphology should reflect these variations. Direct sedimentation measurements, short-lived radionuclides, and a simplified sediment routing model are used to show that transport processes and sedimentation rates are highly variable across the lower delta. Aggradation is more than double the rate of local sea level rise in some areas, and dominant modes of transport are reflected in the patterns of sediment routing and flux across the lower deltaplain, though embankments are major controls on sediment dynamics throughout the coastal delta. This challenges the assumption that the Bengal Delta is doomed to drown; rather it signifies that effective preparation for 21st century climate change requires consideration of spatially variable physical dynamics and local feedbacks with large-scale infrastructure.

The Glacial-Interglacial summer monsoon recorded in southwest Sulawesi speleothems: Evidence for sea level thresholds driving tropical monsoon strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimbrough, A. K.; Gagan, M. K.; Dunbar, G. B.; Krause, C.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Hantoro, W. S.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Shen, C. C.; Sun, H.; Cai, B.; Rifai, H.

2016-12-01

Southwest Sulawesi lies within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP), at the center of atmospheric convection for two of the largest circulation cells on the planet, the meridional Hadley Cell and zonal Indo-Pacific Walker Circulation. Due to the geographic coincidence of these circulation cells, southwest Sulawesi serves as a hotspot for changes in tropical Pacific climate variability and Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) strength over glacial-interglacial (G-I) timescales. The work presented here spans 386 - 127 ky BP, including glacial terminations IV ( 340 ky BP) and both phases of TIII (TIII 248 ky BP and TIIIa 217 ky BP). This record, along with previous work from southwest Sulawesi spanning the last 40 kyr, reveals coherent climatic features over three complete G-I cycles. The multi-stalagmite Sulawesi speleothem δ18O record demonstrates that on G-I timescales, the strength of the AISM is most sensitive to changes in sea level and its impact on the regional distribution of land and shallow ocean. Stalagmite δ18O and trace element (Mg/Ca) data indicate a rapid increase in rainfall at glacial terminations and wet interglacials. TIV, TIII, TIIIa, and TI are each characterized by an abrupt 3‰ decrease in δ18O that coincides with sea level rise and flooding of the Sunda and Sahul shelves. Strong evidence for a sea level (flooding/exposure) threshold is found throughout the southwest Sulawesi record. This is most clearly demonstrated over the period 230 - 212 ky BP (MIS 7d-7c), when a sea level fall to only -80 to -60 m for 10 kyr results in a weakened AISM and glacial conditions, followed by a full termination. Taken together, both glaciations and glacial terminations imply a sea level threshold driving the AISM between two primary levels of intensity (`interglacial' & `glacial'). These massive, sea-level driven shifts in AISM strength are superimposed on precession-scale variability associated with boreal fall insolation at the equator, indicating sensitivity to tropical Pacific influence on warm pool convection.

Arctic sea ice area in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate model ensembles - variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, V. A.; Martin, T.; Behrens, L. K.; Latif, M.

2015-02-01

The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the model results exhibit considerable spread. The last generation of climate models from World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), when compared to the previous CMIP3 model ensemble and considering the whole Arctic, were found to be more consistent with the observed changes in sea ice extent during the recent decades. Some CMIP5 models project strongly accelerated (non-linear) sea ice loss during the first half of the 21st century. Here, complementary to previous studies, we compare results from CMIP3 and CMIP5 with respect to regional Arctic sea ice change. We focus on September and March sea ice. Sea ice area (SIA) variability, sea ice concentration (SIC) variability, and characteristics of the SIA seasonal cycle and interannual variability have been analysed for the whole Arctic, termed Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA changes to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH) averaged temperature is investigated and several important dynamical links between SIA and natural climate variability involving the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea level pressure gradient (SLPG) in the western Barents Sea opening serving as an index of oceanic inflow to the Barents Sea are studied. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle and in the aforementioned dynamical links. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in the CMIP5 ensemble, particularly in summer. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes. Our analysis suggests that, on average, the sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in the CMIP5 models. The Arctic SIA variability response to anthropogenic forcing is different in CMIP3 and CMIP5. While the CMIP3 models simulate increased variability in March and September, the CMIP5 ensemble shows the opposite tendency. A noticeable improvement in the simulation of summer SIA by the CMIP5 models is often accompanied by worse results for winter SIA characteristics. The relation between SIA and mean AMOC changes is opposite in September and March, with March SIA changes being positively correlated with AMOC slowing. Finally, both CMIP ensembles demonstrate an ability to capture, at least qualitatively, important dynamical links of SIA to decadal variability of the AMOC, NAO and SLPG. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a large spread giving rise to high uncertainty.

Assessment of ocean models in Mediterranean Sea against altimetry and gravimetry measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Uebbing, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen

2017-04-01

This work aims at assessing in a regional study in the Mediterranean Sea the agreement between ocean model outputs and satellite altimetry and satellite gravity observations. Satellite sea level change are from altimeter data made available by the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative (SLCCI) and from satellite gravity data made available by GRACE. We consider two ocean simulations not assimilating satellite altimeter data and one ocean model reanalysis assimilating satellite altimetry. Ocean model simulations can provide some insight on the ocean variability, but they are affected by biases due to errors in model formulation, specification of initial states and forcing, and are not directly constrained by observations. Their trend can be quite different from the altimetric observations due to surface radiation biases, however they are physically consistent. Ocean reanalyses are the combination of ocean models, atmospheric forcing fluxes and ocean observations via data assimilation methods and have the potential to provide more accurate information than observation-only or model-only based ocean estimations. They will be closer to altimetry at long and short timescales, but assimilation may destroy mass consistency. We use two ocean simulations which are part of the Med-CORDEX initiative (https://www.medcordex.eu). The first is the CNRM-RCM4 fully-coupled Regional Climate System Model (RCMS) simulation developed at METEOFRANCE for 1980-2012. The second is the PROTHEUS standalone hindcast simulation developed at ENEA and covers the interval 1960-2012. The third model is the regional model MEDSEA_REANALYSIS_PHIS_006_004 assimilating satellite altimeter data (http://marine.copernicus.eu/) and available over 1987-2014. Comparison at basin and regional scale are made. First the steric, thermo-steric, halosteric and dynamic components output of the models are compared. Then the total sea level given by the models is compared to the altimeter observations. Finally the mass component derived from GRACE is compared to the difference between the total sea level and the steric component. We observe large differences between the ocean models and discuss the model which best agrees with the CCI sea level product at short and at longer timescales. We consider departure in sea level trends, inter-annual variability and seasonal cycle. The work is part of the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative project.

Uncertainty estimates of altimetric Global Mean Sea Level timeseries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharffenberg, Martin; Hemming, Michael; Stammer, Detlef

2016-04-01

An attempt is being presented concerned with providing uncertainty measures for global mean sea level time series. For this purpose sea surface height (SSH) fields, simulated by the high resolution STORM/NCEP model for the period 1993 - 2010, were subsampled along altimeter tracks and processed similar to techniques used by five working groups to estimate GMSL. Results suggest that the spatial and temporal resolution have a substantial impact on GMSL estimates. Major impacts can especially result from the interpolation technique or the treatment of SSH outliers and easily lead to artificial temporal variability in the resulting time series.

An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michaël; Zawadzki, Lionel; Zuo, Hao; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Scharffenberg, Martin G.; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Joana Fernandes, M.; Baltazar Andersen, Ole; Rudenko, Sergei; Cipollini, Paolo; Quartly, Graham D.; Passaro, Marcello; Cazenave, Anny; Benveniste, Jérôme

2018-02-01

Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change since it integrates the impacts of ocean warming and ice mass loss from glaciers and the ice sheets. Sea level has been listed as an essential climate variable (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). During the past 25 years, the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010-2013), an initial version (v1.1) of the sea level ECV was made available to users (Ablain et al., 2015). During the second phase of the project (2014-2017), improved altimeter standards were selected to produce new sea level products (called SL_cci v2.0) based on nine altimeter missions for the period 1993-2015 (https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612; Legeais and the ESA SL_cci team, 2016c). Corresponding orbit solutions, geophysical corrections and altimeter standards used in this v2.0 dataset are described in detail in Quartly et al. (2017). The present paper focuses on the description of the SL_cci v2.0 ECV and associated uncertainty and discusses how it has been validated. Various approaches have been used for the quality assessment such as internal validation, comparisons with sea level records from other groups and with in situ measurements, sea level budget closure analyses and comparisons with model outputs. Compared with the previous version of the sea level ECV, we show that use of improved geophysical corrections, careful bias reduction between missions and inclusion of new altimeter missions lead to improved sea level products with reduced uncertainties on different spatial and temporal scales. However, there is still room for improvement since the uncertainties remain larger than the GCOS requirements (GCOS, 2011). Perspectives on subsequent evolution are also discussed.

Analysis of the most recent data of Cascais Tide Gauge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antunes, Carlos; Taborda, Rui; Mendes, Virgílio B.

2010-05-01

In order to meet international standards and to integrate sea level changes and tsunami monitoring networks, Cascais tide gauge, one of the oldest in the world, has been upgraded in 2003 with new acoustic equipment with digital data acquisition, temperature and air-pressure sensors, and internet connection for real time data. The new tide gauge is located very close to the old analogical gauge, which is still working. Datum links between both gauges and the permanent GPS station of Cascais were made and height differences between gauges and the GPS station have been monitored to verify site stability and to estimate the absolute vertical velocity of the site, and therefore, the absolute sea level changes. Tide gauge data from 2000 to 2009 has been analyzed and relative and absolute sea level rise rates have been estimated. The estimation of sea level rise rate with the short baseline of 10 years is made with the daily mean sea level data corrected from the inverse barometric effect. The relative sea level trend is obtained from a 60-day moving average run over the corrected daily mean sea level. The estimated rate has shown greater stability in contrast to the analysis of daily mean sea level raw data, which shows greater variability and uncertainty. Our results show a sea level rise rate of 2.6 mm/year (± 0.3 mm/year), higher than previous rates (2.1 mm/year for 1990 decade and 1.6 mm/year from 1920 to 2000), which is compatible with a sea level rise acceleration scenario. From the analysis of Cascais GPS data, for the period 1990.0 to 2010.0 we obtain an uplift rate of 0.3 mm/year leading to an absolute sea level rise of 2.9 mm/year for Cascais, under the assumption, as predicted by the ICE-5G model, that Cascais has no vertical displacement caused by the post-glacial isostatic adjustment.

Sea level reconstructions from altimetry and tide gauges using independent component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen; Forootan, Ehsan

2017-04-01

Many reconstructions of global and regional sea level rise derived from tide gauges and satellite altimetry used the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) to reduce noise, improving the spatial resolution of the reconstructed outputs and investigate the different signals in climate time series. However, the second order EOF method has some limitations, e.g. in the separation of individual physical signals into different modes of sea level variations and in the capability to physically interpret the different modes as they are assumed to be orthogonal. Therefore, we investigate the use of the more advanced statistical signal decomposition technique called independent component analysis (ICA) to reconstruct global and regional sea level change from satellite altimetry and tide gauge records. Our results indicate that the used method has almost no influence on the reconstruction of global mean sea level change (1.6 mm/yr from 1960-2010 and 2.9 mm/yr from 1993-2013). Only different numbers of modes are needed for the reconstruction. Using the ICA method is advantageous for separating independent climate variability signals from regional sea level variations as the mixing problem of the EOF method is strongly reduced. As an example, the modes most dominated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal are compared. Regional sea level changes near Tianjin, China, Los Angeles, USA, and Majuro, Marshall Islands are reconstructed and the contributions from ENSO are identified.

Last Deglacial Sea Level: A Curated Database of Indicators of Past Sea Levels from Biological and Geomorphological Archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbert, F. D.; Williams, F. H.; Fallon, S.; Rohling, E. J.

2017-12-01

The last deglacial was an interval of rapid climate and sea-level change, including the collapse of large continental ice sheets. This database collates carefully assessed sea-level data from peer-reviewed sources for the interval 0 to 25 thousand years ago (ka), from the last glacial maximum to the present interglacial conditions. In addition to facilitating site-specific reconstructions of past sea levels, the database provides a suite of data beyond the range of modern/instrumental variability that may help hone future sea-level projections. The database is global in scope, internally consistent, and contains U-series and radiocarbon dated indicators from both biological and geomorpohological archives. We focus on far-field data (i.e., away from the sites of the former continental ice sheets), but some key intermediate (i.e., from the Caribbean) data are also included. All primary fields (i.e., sample location, elevation, age and context) possess quantified uncertainties, which - in conjunction with available metadata - allows the reconstructed sea levels to be interpreted within both their uncertainties and geological context. Consistent treatment of each of the individual records in the database, and incorporation of fully expressed uncertainties, allows datasets to be easily compared. The compilation contains 145 studies from 40 locations (>2,000 data points) and includes all raw information and metadata.

Observational evidence for volcanic impact on sea level and the global water cycle.

PubMed

Grinsted, A; Moore, J C; Jevrejeva, S

2007-12-11

It has previously been noted that there are drops in global sea level (GSL) after some major volcanic eruptions. However, observational evidence has not been convincing because there is substantial variability in the global sea level record over periods similar to those at which we expect volcanoes to have an impact. To quantify the impact of volcanic eruptions we average monthly GSL data from 830 tide gauge records around five major volcanic eruptions. Surprisingly, we find that the initial response to a volcanic eruption is a significant rise in sea level of 9 +/- 3 mm in the first year after the eruption. This rise is followed by a drop of 7 +/- 3 mm in the period 2-3 years after the eruption relative to preeruption sea level. These results are statistically robust and no particular volcanic eruption or ocean region dominates the signature we find. Neither the drop nor especially the rise in GSL can be explained by models of lower oceanic heat content. We suggest that the mechanism is a transient disturbance of the water cycle with a delayed response of land river runoff relative to ocean evaporation and global precipitation that affects global sea level. The volcanic impact on the water cycle and sea levels is comparable in magnitude to that of a large El Niño-La Niña cycle, amounting to approximately 5% of global land precipitation.

How climate and weather affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Plant, N. G.

2015-12-01

Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic way while accounting for non-stationarity due to climate variability and change can help decision makers and planners to implement improved monitoring and adaptation strategies for long-term sustainability of the coastline and barrier islands.

Erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico - the effects of climate and weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

2016-04-01

Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic way while accounting for non-stationarity due to climate variability and change can help decision makers and planners to implement improved monitoring and adaptation strategies for long-term sustainability of the coastline and barrier islands.

Geostatistical Analysis of Mesoscale Spatial Variability and Error in SeaWiFS and MODIS/Aqua Global Ocean Color Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glover, David M.; Doney, Scott C.; Oestreich, William K.; Tullo, Alisdair W.

2018-01-01

Mesoscale (10-300 km, weeks to months) physical variability strongly modulates the structure and dynamics of planktonic marine ecosystems via both turbulent advection and environmental impacts upon biological rates. Using structure function analysis (geostatistics), we quantify the mesoscale biological signals within global 13 year SeaWiFS (1998-2010) and 8 year MODIS/Aqua (2003-2010) chlorophyll a ocean color data (Level-3, 9 km resolution). We present geographical distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of key geostatistical parameters: unresolved variability or noise, resolved variability, and spatial range. Resolved variability is nearly identical for both instruments, indicating that geostatistical techniques isolate a robust measure of biophysical mesoscale variability largely independent of measurement platform. In contrast, unresolved variability in MODIS/Aqua is substantially lower than in SeaWiFS, especially in oligotrophic waters where previous analysis identified a problem for the SeaWiFS instrument likely due to sensor noise characteristics. Both records exhibit a statistically significant relationship between resolved mesoscale variability and the low-pass filtered chlorophyll field horizontal gradient magnitude, consistent with physical stirring acting on large-scale gradient as an important factor supporting observed mesoscale variability. Comparable horizontal length scales for variability are found from tracer-based scaling arguments and geostatistical decorrelation. Regional variations between these length scales may reflect scale dependence of biological mechanisms that also create variability directly at the mesoscale, for example, enhanced net phytoplankton growth in coastal and frontal upwelling and convective mixing regions. Global estimates of mesoscale biophysical variability provide an improved basis for evaluating higher resolution, coupled ecosystem-ocean general circulation models, and data assimilation.

Geomagnetic South Atlantic Anomaly and global sea level rise: A direct connection?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Santis, A.; Qamili, E.; Spada, G.; Gasperini, P.

2012-01-01

We highlight the existence of an intriguing and to date unreported relationship between the surface area of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) of the geomagnetic field and the current trend in global sea level rise. These two geophysical variables have been growing coherently during the last three centuries, thus strongly suggesting a causal relationship supported by some statistical tests. The monotonic increase of the SAA surface area since 1600 may have been associated with an increased inflow of radiation energy through the inner Van Allen belt with a consequent warming of the Earth's atmosphere and finally global sea level rise. An alternative suggestive and original explanation is also offered, in which pressure changes at the core-mantle boundary cause surface deformations and relative sea level variations. Although we cannot establish a clear connection between SAA dynamics and global warming, the strong correlation between the former and global sea level supports the idea that global warming may be at least partly controlled by deep Earth processes triggering geomagnetic phenomena, such as the South Atlantic Anomaly, on a century time scale.

High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

2017-05-01

Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Wellness, fatigue and physical performance acclimatisation to a 2-week soccer camp at 3600 m (ISA3600)

PubMed Central

Buchheit, Martin; Simpson, Ben M; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Hammond, Kristal; Kley, Marlen; Schmidt, Walter F; Aughey, Robert J; Soria, Rudy; Sargent, Charli; Roach, Gregory D; Claros, Jesus C Jimenez; Wachsmuth, Nadine; Gore, Christopher J; Bourdon, Pitre C

2013-01-01

Objectives To examine the time course of wellness, fatigue and performance during an altitude training camp (La Paz, 3600 m) in two groups of either sea-level (Australian) or altitude (Bolivian) native young soccer players. Methods Wellness and fatigue were assessed using questionnaires and resting heart rate (HR) and HR variability. Physical performance was assessed using HR responses to a submaximal run, a Yo-Yo Intermittent recovery test level 1 (Yo-YoIR1) and a 20 m sprint. Most measures were performed daily, with the exception of Yo-YoIR1 and 20 m sprints, which were performed near sea level and on days 3 and 10 at altitude. Results Compared with near sea level, Australians had moderate-to-large impairments in wellness and Yo-YoIR1 relative to the Bolivians on arrival at altitude. The acclimatisation of most measures to altitude was substantially slower in Australians than Bolivians, with only Bolivians reaching near sea-level baseline high-intensity running by the end of the camp. Both teams had moderately impaired 20 m sprinting at the end of the camp. Exercise HR had large associations (r>0.5–0.7) with changes in Yo-YoIR1 in both groups. Conclusions Despite partial physiological and perceptual acclimatisation, 2 weeks is insufficient for restoration of physical performance in young sea-level native soccer players. Because of the possible decrement in 20 m sprint time, a greater emphasis on speed training may be required during and after altitude training. The specific time course of restoration for each variable suggests that they measure different aspects of acclimatisation to 3600 m; they should therefore be used in combination to assess adaptation to altitude. PMID:24282195

Simulating reef response to sea-level rise at Lizard Island: A geospatial approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamylton, S. M.; Leon, J. X.; Saunders, M. I.; Woodroffe, C. D.

2014-10-01

Sea-level rise will result in changes in water depth over coral reefs, which will influence reef platform growth as a result of carbonate production and accretion. This study simulates the pattern of reef response on the reefs around Lizard Island in the northern Great Barrier Reef. Two sea-level rise scenarios are considered to capture the range of likely projections: 0.5 m and 1.2 m above 1990 levels by 2100. Reef topography has been established through extensive bathymetric profiling, together with available data, including LiDAR, single beam bathymetry, multibeam swath bathymetry, LADS and digitised chart data. The reef benthic cover around Lizard Island has been classified using a high resolution WorldView-2 satellite image, which is calibrated and validated against a ground referencing dataset of 364 underwater video records of the reef benthic character. Accretion rates are parameterised using published hydrochemical measurements taken in-situ and rules are applied using Boolean logic to incorporate geomorphological transitions associated with different depth ranges, such as recolonisation of the reef flat when it becomes inundated as sea level rises. Simulations indicate a variable platform response to the different sea-level rise scenarios. For the 0.5 m rise, the shallower reef flats are gradually colonised by corals, enabling this active geomorphological zone to keep up with the lower rate of rise while the other sand dominated areas get progressively deeper. In the 1.2 m scenario, a similar pattern is evident for the first 30 years of rise, beyond which the whole reef platform begins to slowly drown. To provide insight on reef response to sea-level rise in other areas, simulation results of four different reef settings are discussed and compared at the southeast reef flat (barrier reef), Coconut Beach (fringing reef), Watson's Bay (leeward bay with coral patches) and Mangrove Beach (sheltered lagoonal embayment). The reef sites appear to accrete upwards at a rate commensurate with the rate of rise, thereby maintaining their original profile and position relative to the sea surface and the leeward and lagoonal sites with a low accretion rate maintain a similar profile but slowly gain depth relative to sea-level. The result of this variable response is that elevated features of the reef platform, such as reef patches and crests tend to become more pronounced.

Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice.

PubMed

Li, Xichen; Holland, David M; Gerber, Edwin P; Yoo, Changhyun

2014-01-23

In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change.

Coastal and rain-induced wind variability depicted by scatterometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portabella, M.; Lin, W.; Stoffelen, A.; Turiel, A.; Verhoef, A.; Verspeek, J.; Ballabrera, J.; Vogelzang, J.

2012-04-01

A detailed knowledge of local wind variability near the shore is very important since it strongly affects the weather and microclimate in coastal regions. Since coastal areas are densely populated and most activity at sea occurs near the shore, sea-surface wind field information is important for a number of applications. In the vicinity of land sea-breeze, wave fetch, katabatic and current effects are more likely than in the open ocean, thus enhancing air-sea interaction. Also very relevant for air-sea interaction are the rain-induced phenomena, such as downbursts and convergence. Relatively cold and dry air is effectively transported to the ocean surface and surface winds are enhanced. In general, both coastal and rain-induced wind variability are poorly resolved by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Satellite real aperture radars (i.e., scatterometers) are known to provide accurate mesoscale (25-50 km resolution) sea surface wind field information used in a wide variety of applications. Nowadays, there are two operating scatterometers in orbit, i.e., the C-band Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard Metop-A and the Ku-band scatterometer (OSCAT) onboard Oceansat-2. The EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF) delivers several ASCAT level 2 wind products with 25 km and 12.5 km Wind Vector Cell (WVC) spacing, including a pre-operational coastal wind product as well as an OSCAT level 2 wind product with 50 km spacing in development status. Rain is known to both attenuate and scatter the microwave signal. In addition, there is a "splashing" effect. The roughness of the sea surface is increased because of splashing due to rain drops. The so-called "rain contamination" is larger for Ku-band scatterometer systems than for C-band systems. Moreover, the associated downdrafts lead to variable wind speeds and directions, further complicating the wind retrieval. The C-band ASCAT high resolution wind processing is validated under rainy conditions, using collocations with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) rain data, and the tropical moored buoy wind and precipitation data. It turns out that the effect of low and moderate rain appears mainly in increasing the wind variability near the surface and, unlike for Ku-band scatterometers, the rain rate itself does not appear clearly as a limiting factor in ASCAT wind quality. Moreover, the downburst patterns as observed by ASCAT are unique and have large implications for air-sea exchange. At the conference, the main progress in scatterometer wind data processing will be shown.

Environmental Variability in the Florida Keys: Impacts on Coral Reef Resilience and Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soto, I. M.; Muller-Karger, F. E.

2005-12-01

Environmental variability contributes to both mass mortality and resilience in tropical coral reef communities. We assess variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean color in the Florida Keys using satellite imagery, and provide insight into how this variability is associated with locations of resilient coral communities (those unaffected by or able to recover from major events). The project tests the hypothesis that areas with historically low environmental variability promote lower levels of coral reef resilience. Time series of SST from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors and ocean color derived quantities (e.g., turbidity and chlorophyll) from the Sea-viewing Wide Field of View Sensor (SeaWiFS) are being constructed over the entire Florida Keys region for a period of twelve and nine years, respectively. These data will be compared with historical coral cover data derived from Landsat imagery (1984-2002). Improved understanding of the causes of coral reef decline or resilience will help protect and manage these natural treasures.

Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2016-12-01

Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few centuries to obtain robust estimates of the contribution of ice sheet melt to SLR.

Assimilation of ocean colour to improve the simulation and understanding of the North West European shelf-sea ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavatta, Stefano; Brewin, Robert; Skakala, Jozef; Sursham, David; Ford, David

2017-04-01

Shelf-seas and coastal zones provide essential goods and services to humankind, such as fisheries, aquaculture, tourism and climate regulation. The understanding and management of these regions can be enhanced by merging ocean-colour observations and marine ecosystem simulations through data assimilation, which provides (sub)optimal estimates of key biogeochemical variables. Here we present a range of applications of ocean-colour data assimilation in the North West European shelf-sea. A reanalysis application illustrates that assimilation of error-characterized chlorophyll concentrations could provide a map of the shelf sea vulnerability to oxygen deficiency, as well as estimates of the shelf sea uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the last decade. The interannual variability of CO2 uptake and its uncertainty were related significantly to interannual fluctuations of the simulated primary production. However, the reanalysis also indicates that assimilation of total chlorophyll did not improve significantly the simulation of some other variables, e.g. nutrients. We show that the assimilation of alternative products derived from ocean colour (i.e. spectral diffuse attenuation coefficient and phytoplankton size classes) can overcome this limitation. In fact, these products can constrain a larger number of model variables, which define either the underwater light field or the structure of the lower trophic levels. Therefore, the assimilation of such ocean-colour products into marine ecosystem models is an advantageous novel approach to improve the understanding and simulation of shelf-sea environments.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.G.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.; Bauer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir-Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Friess, Daniel A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Krauss, Ken W.; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L.; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

2015-01-01

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world’s mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Lovelock, Catherine E; Cahoon, Donald R; Friess, Daniel A; Guntenspergen, Glenn R; Krauss, Ken W; Reef, Ruth; Rogers, Kerrylee; Saunders, Megan L; Sidik, Frida; Swales, Andrew; Saintilan, Neil; Thuyen, Le Xuan; Triet, Tran

2015-10-22

Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.

Determination of sound types and source levels of airborne vocalizations by California sea lions, Zalophus californianus, in rehabilitation at the Marine Mammal Center in Sausalito, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwalm, Afton Leigh

California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) are a highly popular and easily recognized marine mammal in zoos, aquariums, circuses, and often seen by ocean visitors. They are highly vocal and gregarious on land. Surprisingly, little research has been performed on the vocalization types, source levels, acoustic properties, and functions of airborne sounds used by California sea lions. This research on airborne vocalizations of California sea lions will advance the understanding of this aspect of California sea lions communication, as well as examine the relationship between health condition and acoustic behavior. Using a PhillipsRTM digital recorder with attached microphone and a calibrated RadioShackRTM sound pressure level meter, acoustical data were recorded opportunistically on California sea lions during rehabilitation at The Marine Mammal Center in Sausalito, CA. Vocalizations were analyzed using frequency, time, and amplitude variables with Raven Pro: Interactive Sound Analysis Software Version 1.4 (The Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Ithaca, NY). Five frequency, three time, and four amplitude variables were analyzed for each vocalization. Differences in frequency, time, and amplitude variables were not significant by sex. The older California sea lion group produced vocalizations that were significantly lower in four frequency variables, significantly longer in two time variables, significantly higher in calibrated maximum and minimum amplitude variables, and significantly lower in frequency at maximum and minimum amplitude compared with pups. Six call types were identified: bark, goat, growl/grumble, bark/grumble, bark/growl, and grumble/moan. The growl/grumble call was higher in dominant beginning, ending, and minimum frequency, as well as in the frequency at maximum amplitude compared with the bark, goat, bark/grumble calls in the first versus last vocalization sample. The goat call was significantly higher in first harmonic interval than any other call type in the all vocalizations sample. The "fate" of a sea lion was categorized as: released, placed at another facility, remained at TMMC, euthanized, or died. To determine if acoustic features could be used to assess the recovery of a pup, the acoustic features of a pup's first recorded vocalization were compared with the frequency, time, and amplitude of the last vocalization recorded (i.e., before it was released or placed at another facility). In addition, all first vocalizations were pooled and all last vocalizations were pooled for acoustic analysis, regardless of their fate. Released pups had shorter duration calls, a greater first harmonic interval, and a higher dominant maximum frequency than either pups that died or pups remaining at TMMC. Released pups had a higher frequency at maximum and minimum amplitude compared to dead and remaining pups. Pups that died had significantly lower dominant ending frequency and a lower dominant minimum frequency than released or remaining pups. These results were supported by other studies on different species of otariids, phocids, and cetaceans. The preliminary analyses presented in this thesis holds promise that with additional data acoustic features of California sea lion airborne vocalizations could indicate sex, age, and possibly health condition or the potential for release.

Temporal and spatial variabilities of Antarctic ice mass changes inferred by GRACE in a Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Davis, J. L.; Tamisiea, M. E.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) holds about 60% of all fresh water on the Earth, an amount equivalent to about 58 m of sea-level rise. Observation of AIS mass change is thus essential in determining and predicting its contribution to sea level. While the ice mass loss estimates for West Antarctica (WA) and the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are in good agreement, what the mass balance over East Antarctica (EA) is, and whether or not it compensates for the mass loss is under debate. Besides the different error sources and sensitivities of different measurement types, complex spatial and temporal variabilities would be another factor complicating the accurate estimation of the AIS mass balance. Therefore, a model that allows for variabilities in both melting rate and seasonal signals would seem appropriate in the estimation of present-day AIS melting. We present a stochastic filter technique, which enables the Bayesian separation of the systematic stripe noise and mass signal in decade-length GRACE monthly gravity series, and allows the estimation of time-variable seasonal and inter-annual components in the signals. One of the primary advantages of this Bayesian method is that it yields statistically rigorous uncertainty estimates reflecting the inherent spatial resolution of the data. By applying the stochastic filter to the decade-long GRACE observations, we present the temporal variabilities of the AIS mass balance at basin scale, particularly over East Antarctica, and decipher the EA mass variations in the past decade, and their role in affecting overall AIS mass balance and sea level.

Benthic communities in the deep Mediterranean Sea: exploring microbial and meiofaunal patterns in slope and basin ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sevastou, K.; Lampadariou, N.; Polymenakou, P. N.; Tselepides, A.

2013-07-01

The long-held perception of the deep sea consisting of monotonous slopes and uniform oceanic basins has over the decades given way to the idea of a complex system with wide habitat heterogeneity. Under the prism of a highly diverse environment, a large dataset was used to describe and compare spatial patterns of the dominant small-size components of deep-sea benthos, metazoan meiofauna and microbes, from Mediterranean basins and slopes. A grid of 73 stations sampled at five geographical areas along the central-eastern Mediterranean Basin (central Mediterranean, northern Aegean Sea, Cretan Sea, Libyan Sea, eastern Levantine) spanning over 4 km in depth revealed a high diversity, irrespective of the benthic group or level of taxonomic analysis. A common decreasing bathymetric trend was detected for meiobenthic abundance, major taxa diversity and nematode genera richness, but no differences were found between the two habitats (basin vs slope). In contrast, microbial richness is significantly higher at the basin ecosystem and tends to increase with depth. Multivariate analyses (β- and δ-diversity and ordination analysis) complemented these results and underlined the high within-habitat variability of benthic communities. Meiofaunal communities in particular were found to change gradually and vary more towards the abyss. On the other hand, microbial communities were highly variable, even among samples of the same area, habitat and bathymetry. A significant proportion of the variation of benthic communities and their descriptors was explained by depth and proxies of food availability (sedimentary pigments and organic content), but the combination of predictor variables and the strength of the relationship varied depending on the data set used (based on type of habitat, benthic component, taxonomic level). This, along with the observed high within-habitat variability suggests that other factors, which tend to vary at local scale (hydrodynamics, substrate structure, geochemistry, food quality, etc.), may also relate to the observed benthic patterns. Overall, the results presented here suggest that differences in small-size benthos between the basin and slope habitats are neither strong nor consistent; it appears that within-habitat variability is high, differences among depth ranges are important and further investigation of possible environmental drivers of benthic patterns is needed.

A south equatorial African precipitation dipole and the associated atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dezfuli, A. K.; Zaitchik, B.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2013-12-01

South Equatorial Africa (SEA) is a climatically diverse region that includes a dramatic topographic and vegetation contrast between the lowland, humid Congo basin to the west and the East African Plateau to the east. Due to lack of conventional weather data and a tendency for researchers to treat East and western Africa as separate regions, dynamics of the atmospheric water cycle across SEA have received relatively little attention, particularly at subseasonal timescales. Both western and eastern sectors of SEA are affected by large-scale drivers of the water cycle associated with Atlantic variability (western sector), Indian Ocean variability (eastern sector) and Pacific variability (both sectors). However, a specific characteristic of SEA is strong heterogeneity in interannual rainfall variability that cannot be explained by large-scale climatic phenomena. For this reason, this study examines regional climate dynamics on daily time-scale with a focus on the role that the abrupt topographic contrast between the lowland Congo and the East African highlands plays in driving rainfall behavior on short timescales. Analysis of daily precipitation data during November-March reveals a zonally-oriented dipole mode over SEA that explains the leading pattern of weather-scale precipitation variability in the region. The separating longitude of the two poles is coincident with the zonal variation of topography. An anomalous counter-clockwise atmospheric circulation associated with the dipole mode appears over the entire SEA. The circulation is triggered by its low-level westerly component, which is in turn generated by an interhemispheric pressure gradient. These enhanced westerlies hit the East African highlands and produce topographically-driven low-level convergence and convection that further intensifies the circulation. Recent studies have shown that under climate change the position and intensity of subtropical highs in both hemispheres and the intensity of precipitation over equatorial Africa are projected to change. Both of these trends have implications for the manner in which large-scale dynamics will interact with regional topography, affecting the intensity and frequency of the dipole mode characterized in this study and the occurrence of extreme wet and dry spells in the region.

North Atlantic influence on 19th-20th century rainfall in the Dead Sea watershed, teleconnections with the Sahel, and implication for Holocene climate fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushnir, Yochanan; Stein, Mordechai

2010-12-01

The importance of understanding processes that govern the hydroclimate of the Mediterranean Basin is highlighted by the projected significant drying of the region in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we study the long-term hydroclimatic variability of the central Levant region, situated in the eastern boundary of the Basin, as reveled by instrumental observations and the Holocene record of Dead Sea level variations. Observations of 19th and 20th century precipitation in the Dead Sea watershed region display a multidecadal, anti-phase relationship to North Atlantic (NAtl) sea surface temperature (SST) variability, such that when the NAtl is relatively cold, Jerusalem experiences higher than normal precipitation and vice versa. This association is underlined by a negative correlation to precipitation in the sub-Saharan Sahel and a positive correlation to precipitation in western North America, areas that are also affected by multidecadal NAtl SST variability. These observations are consistent with a broad range of Holocene hydroclimatic fluctuations from the epochal, to the millennial and centennial time scales, as displayed by the Dead Sea lake level, by lake levels in the Sahel, and by direct and indirect proxy indicators of NAtl SSTs. On the epochal time scale, the gradual cooling of NAtl SSTs throughout the Holocene in response to precession-driven reduction of summer insolation is associated with previously well-studied wet-to-dry transition in the Sahel and with a general increase in Dead Sea lake levels from low stands after the Younger Dryas to higher stands in the mid- to late-Holocene. On the millennial and centennial time scales there is also evidence for an anti-phase relationship between Holocene variations in the Dead Sea and Sahelian lake levels and with proxy indicators of NAtl SSTs. However the records are punctuated by abrupt lake-level drops, which appear to be in-phase and which occur during previously documented abrupt major cooling events in the Northern Hemisphere. We propose that the mechanisms by which NAtl SSTs affect precipitation in the central Levant is related to the tendency for high (low) pressure anomalies to persist over the eastern North Atlantic/Western Mediterranean region when the Basin is cold (warm). This, in turn, affects the likelihood of cold air outbreaks and cyclogenesis in the Eastern Mediterranean and, consequently, rainfall in the central Levant region. Depending on its phase, this natural mechanism can alleviate or exacerbate the anthropogenic impact on the regions' hydroclimatic future.

MIS 5e sea level: up to what point can we use literature reviews to answer the most pressing questions on the Last Interglacial ice sheets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovere, A.; Raymo, M. E.

2014-12-01

During MIS 5e (between ~128 and 116 kyr BP) greenhouse gas concentrations were comparable to pre-industrial levels, summer insolation was higher by ~10% at high latitudes and polar temperatures in both hemispheres were about 3-5 °C warmer than today. Sea level (SL) at this time has been a subject of numerous studies (and some debate) with ~1000 sites with MIS 5e sea level markers recognized worldwide. Recently, Kopp et al. (Nature, 2009) and Dutton & Lambeck (Science, 2012) analyzed worldwide datasets of sea level markers pertaining to the last interglacial. After accounting for GIA, they reached similar conclusions that eustatic (i.e., globally averaged) sea level (ESL) was between +5 and +9.4 m above modern during MIS 5e. Furthermore, Kopp et al. (Nature, 2009; GJI, 2013) suggest that sea level was not uniform during the LIG, but instead underwent at least two rapid oscillations including a rapid late 5e rise first proposed by Hearty et al. (QSR, 2007) and later by O'Leary et al. (Nat. Geo., 2013). Investigating the temporal and geographic variability of MIS 5e sea level opens new lines of research, in particular the possibility to fingerprint (Hay et al., QSR, 2014) the source of the proposed rapid ice sheet collapse near the end of the Last Interglacial. In this presentation we ask: can we use a database of published sea level estimates for this purpose? To answer this question, we built a relative sea level (RSL) database using RSLcalc 2.0; this is a relational database specifically designed to review relative sea level data points while keeping all the relevant information contained in the original publications. RSlcalc allows to estimate the measurement error (on the actual elevation of the SL feature), the error on the indicative range (the elevation range occupied by a sea level indicator) as well as the reference water level (the relationship between the marker and the former sea level). We show that the majority of published data have an accuracy of few meters at best and, in most cases, are not precise enough for sea level fingerprinting. We conclude that the use of topographic-grade survey techniques is paramount in the study of paleo-sea levels and that revisiting known sites using such techniques is a priority for the understanding of polar ice volume and sea level changes during past interglacials

Variability of Relative Sea Level Rise: Spatial and Temporal Correlations in Northwest Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tissot, P.; Reisinger, A. S.; Besonen, M. R.

2017-12-01

While our understanding of global sea level rise and its budget has made great progress over the past decade, the spatial and temporal variability of relative sea level rise along the coasts still needs to be better understood and quantified. We developed a technique to reduce the confidence intervals associated with relative sea level rise (RSLR) estimates for 15 tide gauges located along the Texas coast for the period 1993-2016. Seasonally detrended monthly mean water levels are highly correlated after removal of station-specific RSLR trends, which allows for the quantification of a common, low frequency oceanic signal. RSLR confidence intervals are reduced from over 1.9 mm/yr, on average 2.3mm, to less than 1.1 mm/yr, on average 0.7 mm/yr after removing this common signal. The resulting RSLR rates range from 3.0 to 8.4 mm/yr. The range is wider than the longer-term rates of 5.3, 3.8 and 1.9 mm/yr measured from north to south by the three National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON) stations covering the study area (over different and longer time spans). The results emphasize the importance of the spatial variability of the vertical land motion component of RSLR. The temporal variability of the coherent oceanic signal is not significantly correlated to the ENSO signal for the study period and is only weakly correlated to the AMO and PDO climate indices. The coherence of the signal is further investigated by comparison with other locations along the Gulf of Mexico and along the Northeast Atlantic coast. The results are discussed while considering strong local processes along the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, such as wind forcing and intermittent eddies and the spatially broader influence of the Gulf Stream. The local significance of the RSLR spatial and temporal differences are discussed in terms of the differences in inundation frequency for nuisance type flooding including comparing the time span to reach a probability of at least one nuisance flood event per year.

Natural variability of bio-optical properties in an ultra-oligotrophic region: backscattering, attenuation and absorption coefficients as observed in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kheireddine, M.; Jones, B. H.

2016-02-01

Until recently, satellite-derived ocean color observations have been the only means of evaluating optical variability of the Red Sea. The optical properties of the Red Sea have been empirically related to the chlorophyll concentration, [Chl], historically used as an index of the trophic state and of the abundance of the biological materials. The natural variability around the mean statistical relationships is here examined by comparing the optical properties as a function of [Chl] in different area of the Red Sea: the North Red Sea (NRS), the North Central Red Sea (NCRS) and the South Central Red Sea (SCRS) waters. The systematic deviations, with respect to the average laws provided for the global ocean, mainly result from the differing contents in non-algal particles, phytoplankton communities and dissolved colored substance for a given [Chl] level. These optical anomalies relate to the specific biological and environmental conditions occurring in the Red Sea ecosystem, showing the peculiar character of the Red Sea. Specifically, absorption's values of colored dissolved organic matter are lower than the values predicted from the global relationships, the surface specific phytoplankton absorption coefficients are lower than the values predicted from the global relationships due to a high proportion of relatively large sized phytoplankton. Conversely, bbp values are much higher than the mean standard values for a given [Chl] concentration. This presumably results from the influence of highly refractive submicrometer particles of Saharan or Arabian origin in the surface layer of the water column.

Deglacial-Holocene short-term variability in sea-ice distribution on the Eurasian shelf (Arctic Ocean) - An IP25 biomarker reconstruction.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hörner, Tanja; Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten

2016-04-01

Four well-dated sediment cores from the Eurasian continental shelf, i.e., the Kara Sea (Cores BP99/07 and BP00/07) and Laptev Sea (Cores PS51/154 and PS51/159), were selected for high-resolution reconstruction of past Arctic environmental conditions during the deglacial-Holocene time interval. These marginal seas are strongly affected by the post-glacial sea-level rise of about 120m. The major focus of our study was the reconstruction of the paleo-sea-ice distribution as sea-ice plays a key role within the modern and past climate system. For reconstruction of paleo-sea ice, the sea-ice proxy IP25 in combination with open-water phytoplankton biomarkers was used (for approach see Belt et al., 2007; Müller et al., 2009, 2011). In addition, specific sterols were determined to reconstruct changes in river run-off and biological production. The post-glacial sea-level rise is especially reflected in prominent decrease in terrigenous biomarkers. Deglacial variations in sea-ice cover sustained for thousand of years, mostly following climatic changes like the Bølling/Allerød (14.7-12.9 ka), Younger Dryas (12.9-11.6 ka) and Holocene warm phase (10-8 ka). Superimposed on a (Late) Holocene cooling trend, short-term fluctuations in sea-ice cover (on centennial scale) are distinctly documented in the distal/off-shore Core BP00/07 from the Kara Sea, less pronounced in the proximal/near-shore Core PS99/07 and in the Laptev Sea cores. Interestingly, this short-term variability in sea-ice cover correlates quite well to changes in Siberian river run-off (e.g., Stein et al. 2004), pointing to a direct linkage between precipitation (atmospheric circulation) and sea-ice formation. References Belt, S.T., Massé, G., Rowland, S.J., Poulin, M., Michel, C., LeBlanc, B., 2007. A novel chemical fossil of palaeo sea ice: IP25. Organic Geochemistry 38, 16-27. Müller, J., Masse, G., Stein, R., Belt, S.T., 2009. Variability of sea-ice conditions in the Fram Strait over the past 30,000 years. Nature Geoscience 2, 772-776. Müller, J., Wagner, A., Fahl, K., Stein, R., Prange, M., Lohmann, G., 2011. Towards quantitative sea ice reconstructions in the northern North Atlantic: A combined biomarker and numerical modelling approach. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 306, 137-148. Stein, R., Steinke, T., Dittmers, K., Fahl, K., Kraus, M., Matthiessen, J., Niessen, F., Pirrung, M., Polyakova, Ye., Achoster, F., Fqtterer, D.K., 2004. Terrigenous sediment supply and paleoenvironment of the Holocene Kara Sea. Quaternary Science Reviews, 23, 485-1511.

Biophysical Variability in the Kuroshio Extension from Altimeter and SeaWiFS

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

Prediction Laboratory Department of Oceanography Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943 Abstract— Ten years (1998- 2007 ) of Sea Level Anomaly...heights have been measured by the ERS 1/2 and TOPEX/Poseidon satellites from 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2007 at 7-day intervals. Radar altimeters...3) from January 1998 to December 2007 (10 years period). Temporal variations of sea surface elevation residuals and Chl-a along the mean KE axis

Mean Cancer Mortality Rates in Low Versus High Elevation Counties in Texas

PubMed Central

Hart, John

2010-01-01

There is controversy as to whether low levels of radiation (i.e., < 5 rem) pose a health risk. This brief inquiry compares archived cancer mortality data in counties having relatively low (0–250 feet above sea level), medium (500–1000 feet above sea level), and high (3000+ feet above sea level) elevations also having corresponding greater natural background levels of radiation respectively. Cancer mortality was found to be lowest in the high elevation counties (mean = 58.2) followed by low elevation counties (67.5) and then medium elevation counties (70.4). Statistically significant differences were found between low –high elevations (p = 0.003), and medium – high elevations (p = 0.010), but not between low and medium elevations (p = 0.5). More rigorous research, with an accounting of confounding variables, is indicated. PMID:21191484

Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era.

PubMed

Kopp, Robert E; Kemp, Andrew C; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Gehrels, W Roland; Hay, Carling C; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Morrow, Eric D; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2016-03-15

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ∼ 0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability [Formula: see text]) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely ([Formula: see text]) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed [Formula: see text] cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.

Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

PubMed Central

Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2016-01-01

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. PMID:26903659

Airborne geophysics for mesoscale observations of polar sea ice in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks, S.; Haas, C.; Krumpen, T.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.

2016-12-01

Sea ice thickness is an important geophysical parameter with a significant impact on various processes of the polar energy balance. It is classified as Essential Climate Variable (ECV), however the direct observations of the large ice-covered oceans are limited due to the harsh environmental conditions and logistical constraints. Sea-ice thickness retrieval by the means of satellite remote sensing is an active field of research, but current observational capabilities are not able to capture the small scale variability of sea ice thickness and its evolution in the presence of surface melt. We present an airborne observation system based on a towed electromagnetic induction sensor that delivers long range measurements of sea ice thickness for a wide range of sea ice conditions. The purpose-built sensor equipment can be utilized from helicopters and polar research aircraft in multi-role science missions. While airborne EM induction sounding is used in sea ice research for decades, the future challenge is the development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform that meet the requirements for low-level EM sea ice surveys in terms of range and altitude of operations. The use of UAV's could enable repeated sea ice surveys during the the polar night, when manned operations are too dangerous and the observational data base is presently very sparse.

Possible connections of the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover.

PubMed

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Winkler, Julie A; Zhou, Mingyu; Lenschow, Donald H; Li, Bingrui; Wang, Xianqiao; Yang, Qinghua

2017-04-05

Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and a key indicator of climate change. A decreasing trend in Arctic sea-ice concentration is evident in recent years, whereas Antarctic sea-ice concentration exhibits a generally increasing trend. Various studies have investigated the underlying causes of the observed trends for each region, but possible linkages between the regional trends have not been studied. Here, we hypothesize that the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice concentration may be linked, at least partially, through interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Although evaluation of this hypothesis is constrained by the limitations of the sea-ice cover record, preliminary statistical analyses of one short-term and two long-term time series of observed and reanalysis sea-ice concentrations data suggest the possibility of the hypothesized linkages. For all three data sets, the leading mode of variability of global sea-ice concentration is positively correlated with the AMO and negatively correlated with the PDO. Two wave trains related to the PDO and the AMO appear to produce anomalous surface-air temperature and low-level wind fields in the two polar regions that contribute to the opposite changes in sea-ice concentration.

Possible connections of the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover

PubMed Central

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Winkler, Julie A.; Zhou, Mingyu; Lenschow, Donald H.; Li, Bingrui; Wang, Xianqiao; Yang, Qinghua

2017-01-01

Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and a key indicator of climate change. A decreasing trend in Arctic sea-ice concentration is evident in recent years, whereas Antarctic sea-ice concentration exhibits a generally increasing trend. Various studies have investigated the underlying causes of the observed trends for each region, but possible linkages between the regional trends have not been studied. Here, we hypothesize that the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice concentration may be linked, at least partially, through interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Although evaluation of this hypothesis is constrained by the limitations of the sea-ice cover record, preliminary statistical analyses of one short-term and two long-term time series of observed and reanalysis sea-ice concentrations data suggest the possibility of the hypothesized linkages. For all three data sets, the leading mode of variability of global sea-ice concentration is positively correlated with the AMO and negatively correlated with the PDO. Two wave trains related to the PDO and the AMO appear to produce anomalous surface-air temperature and low-level wind fields in the two polar regions that contribute to the opposite changes in sea-ice concentration. PMID:28378830

Physical Mechanism of the Surface Air Temperature Variability in Korea and Near Seven-Day Oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K.; Roh, J.

2009-12-01

The first three principal modes of wintertime surface temperature variability in Seoul, Korea (126.59°E, 37.33°N) are extracted from the 1979-2008 observed records via cyclostationary EOF (CSEOF) analysis. Then, physically consistent patterns of several key physical variables over East Asia (97.5°-152.5°E×22.5°-72.5°N) are derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to understand the physical and dynamical mechanisms of the derived CSEOF modes. The first mode represents the seasonal cycle, the principle physical mechanism of which is associated with the continent/ocean sea level pressure contrast. The second mode mainly describes overall wintertime warming or cooling. The third mode depicts subseasonal fluctuations of surface temperature. Sea level pressure anomalies to the west of Korea (eastern China) and those with an opposite sign to the east of Korea (Japan) are a major physical mechanism both for the second mode and the third mode. These sea level pressure anomalies with opposite signs alter the amount of warm air to the south of Korea, which, in turn, varies the surface temperature in Korea. The PC time series of the seasonal cycle is significantly correlated with the East Asian winter monsoon index and exhibits a conspicuous downward trend. The PC time series of the second mode exhibits a positive trend. These trends imply that the wintertime surface temperature in Korea has increased and the seasonal cycle has weakened gradually in the past 30 years; the sign of greenhouse warming is clear in both PC time series. The seasonal cycle has decreased since the impact of warming as reflected in the sea level pressure change is much stronger over the continent than over the ocean; greater sea level pressure decrease over the continent than over the ocean reduces the wintertime sea level pressure contrast between the continent and the ocean thereby weakening the seasonal cycle. The ~7-day oscillations, also called the three-cold-day/four-warm-day events, are clearly seen in the second and the third CSEOF modes. The ~7-day oscillations are a major component of high-frequency variability in much of the analysis domain and are a manifestation of Rossby waves. Rossby waves aloft result in the concerted variation of physical variables in the atmospheric column; the nature of this response is of nearly barotropic and is clearly felt at the surface. Due to the stronger mean zonal wind, the disturbances by Rossby waves propagate eastward at ~8-12 m/sec; the passing of Rossby waves with alternating signs produces the ~7-day temperature oscillations in Korea. Thus, it is the speed of eastward propagation of Rossby waves not the phase speed of Rossby waves that determines the period of oscillations.

Coastal vulnerability assessment of the Northern Gulf of Mexico to sea-level rise and coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, E.A.; Barras, J.A.; Williams, S.J.; Twichell, D.C.

2010-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise along the Northern Gulf of Mexico from Galveston, TX, to Panama City, FL. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rate, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable are combined and an index value is calculated for 1-kilometer grid cells along the coast. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. The CVI assessment presented here builds on an earlier assessment conducted for the Gulf of Mexico. Recent higher resolution shoreline change, land loss, elevation, and subsidence data provide the foundation for a better assessment for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The areas along the Northern Gulf of Mexico that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are parts of the Louisiana Chenier Plain, Teche-Vermillion Basin, and the Mississippi barrier islands, as well as most of the Terrebonne and Barataria Bay region and the Chandeleur Islands. These very high vulnerability areas have the highest rates of relative sea-level rise and the highest rates of shoreline change or land area loss. The information provided by coastal vulnerability assessments can be used in long-term coastal management and policy decision making.

Observational evidence for volcanic impact on sea level and the global water cycle

PubMed Central

Grinsted, A.; Moore, J. C.; Jevrejeva, S.

2007-01-01

It has previously been noted that there are drops in global sea level (GSL) after some major volcanic eruptions. However, observational evidence has not been convincing because there is substantial variability in the global sea level record over periods similar to those at which we expect volcanoes to have an impact. To quantify the impact of volcanic eruptions we average monthly GSL data from 830 tide gauge records around five major volcanic eruptions. Surprisingly, we find that the initial response to a volcanic eruption is a significant rise in sea level of 9 ± 3 mm in the first year after the eruption. This rise is followed by a drop of 7 ± 3 mm in the period 2–3 years after the eruption relative to preeruption sea level. These results are statistically robust and no particular volcanic eruption or ocean region dominates the signature we find. Neither the drop nor especially the rise in GSL can be explained by models of lower oceanic heat content. We suggest that the mechanism is a transient disturbance of the water cycle with a delayed response of land river runoff relative to ocean evaporation and global precipitation that affects global sea level. The volcanic impact on the water cycle and sea levels is comparable in magnitude to that of a large El Niño–La Niña cycle, amounting to ≈5% of global land precipitation. PMID:18056644

Sea-Level Allowances along the World Coastlines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandewal, R.; Tsitsikas, C.; Reerink, T.; Slangen, A.; de Winter, R.; Muis, S.; Hunter, J. R.

2017-12-01

Sea level changes as a result of climate change. For projections we take ocean mass changes and volume changes into account. Including gravitational and rotational fingerprints this provide regional sea level changes. Hence we can calculate sea-level rise patterns based on CMIP5 projections. In order to take the variability around the mean state, which follows from the climate models, into account we use the concept of allowances. The allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be increased to maintain the likelihood of sea-level extremes. Here we use a global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels based on a global hydrodynamic model in order to calculate allowances. It is shown that the model compares in most regions favourably with tide gauge records from the GESLA data set. Combining the CMIP5 projections and the global hydrodynamical model we calculate sea-level allowances along the global coastlines and expand the number of points with a factor 50 relative to tide gauge based results. Results show that allowances increase gradually along continental margins with largest values near the equator. In general values are lower at midlatitudes both in Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Increased risk for extremes are typically 103-104 for the majority of the coastline under the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. Finally we will show preliminary results of the effect of changing wave heights based on the coordinated ocean wave project.

Improved estimates of global sea level change from Ice Sheets, glaciers and land water storage using GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velicogna, I.; Hsu, C. W.; Ciraci, E.; Sutterley, T. C.

2015-12-01

We use observations of time variable gravity from GRACE to estimate mass changes for the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets, the Glaciers and Ice Caps (GIC) and land water storage for the time period 2002-2015 and evaluate their total contribution to sea level. We calculate regional sea level changes from these present day mass fluxes using an improved scaling factor for the GRACE data that accounts for the spatial and temporal variability of the observed signal. We calculate a separate scaling factor for the annual and the long-term components of the GRACE signal. To estimate the contribution of the GIC, we use a least square mascon approach and we re-analyze recent inventories to optimize the distribution of mascons and recover the GRACE signal more accurately. We find that overall, Greenland controls 43% of the global trend in eustatic sea level rise, 16% for Antarctica and 29% for the GIC. The contribution from the GIC is dominated by the mass loss of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, followed by Alaska, Patagonia and the High Mountains of Asia. We report a marked increase in mass loss for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In Greenland, following the 2012 high summer melt, years 2013 and 2014 have slowed down the increase in mass loss, but our results will be updated with summer 2015 observations at the meeting. In Antarctica, the mass loss is still on the rise with increased contributions from the Amundsen Sea sector and surprisingly from the Wilkes Land sector of East Antarctica, including Victoria Land. Conversely, the Queen Maud Land sector experienced a large snowfall in 2009-2013 and has now resumed to a zero mass gain since 2013. We compare sea level changes from these GRACE derived mass fluxes after including the atmospheric and ocean loading signal with sea level change from satellite radar altimetry (AVISO) corrected for steric signal of the ocean using Argo measurements and find an excellent agreement in amplitude, phase and trend in these estimates. This work was conducted at UC Irvine and at Caltech's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with NASA's Cryospheric Science Program.

Marine aerosol source regions to Prince of Wales Icefield, Ellesmere Island, and influence from the tropical Pacific, 1979-2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Criscitiello, Alison S.; Marshall, Shawn J.; Evans, Matthew J.; Kinnard, Christophe; Norman, Ann-Lise; Sharp, Martin J.

2016-08-01

Using a coastal ice core collected from Prince of Wales (POW) Icefield on Ellesmere Island, we investigate source regions of sea ice-modulated chemical species (methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and chloride (Cl-)) to POW Icefield and the influence of large-scale atmospheric variability on the transport of these marine aerosols (1979-2001). Our key findings are (1) MSA in the POW Icefield core is derived primarily from productivity in the sea ice zone of Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, with influence from waters within the North Water (NOW) polynya, (2) sea ice formation processes within the NOW polynya may be a significant source of sea-salt aerosols to the POW core site, in addition to offshore open water source regions primarily in Hudson Bay, and (3) the tropical Pacific influences the source and transport of marine aerosols to POW Icefield through its remote control on regional winds and sea ice variability. Regression analyses during times of MSA deposition reveal sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies favorable for opening of the NOW polynya and subsequent oceanic dimethyl sulfide production. Regression analyses during times of Cl- deposition reveal SLP anomalies that indicate a broader oceanic region of sea-salt sources to the core site. These results are supported by Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer- and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager-based sea ice reconstructions and air mass transport density analyses and suggest that the marine biogenic record may capture local polynya variability, while sea-salt transport to the site from larger offshore source regions in Baffin Bay is likely. Regression analyses show a link to tropical dynamics via an atmospheric Rossby wave.

Spatial scales of light transmission through Antarctic pack ice: Surface flooding vs. floe-size distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, S.; Meiners, K.; Krumpen, T.; Ricker, R.; Nicolaus, M.

2016-12-01

Snow on sea ice plays a crucial role for interactions between the ocean and atmosphere within the climate system of polar regions. Antarctic sea ice is covered with snow during most of the year. The snow contributes substantially to the sea-ice mass budget as the heavy snow loads can depress the ice below water level causing flooding. Refreezing of the snow and seawater mixture results in snow-ice formation on the ice surface. The snow cover determines also the amount of light being reflected, absorbed, and transmitted into the upper ocean, determining the surface energy budget of ice-covered oceans. The amount of light penetrating through sea ice into the upper ocean is of critical importance for the timing and amount of bottom sea-ice melt, biogeochemical processes and under-ice ecosystems. Here, we present results of several recent observations in the Weddell Sea measuring solar radiation under Antarctic sea ice with instrumented Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV). The combination of under-ice optical measurements with simultaneous characterization of surface properties, such as sea-ice thickness and snow depth, allows the identification of key processes controlling the spatial distribution of the under-ice light. Thus, our results show how the distinction between flooded and non-flooded sea-ice regimes dominates the spatial scales of under-ice light variability for areas smaller than 100-by-100m. In contrast, the variability on larger scales seems to be controlled by the floe-size distribution and the associated lateral incidence of light. These results are related to recent studies on the spatial variability of Arctic under-ice light fields focusing on the distinctly differing dominant surface properties between the northern (e.g. summer melt ponds) and southern (e.g. year-round snow cover, surface flooding) hemisphere sea-ice cover.

A New CCI ECV Release (v2.0) to Accurately Measure the Sea Level Change from space (1993-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, Jean-Francois; Benveniste, Jérôme

2017-04-01

Accurate monitoring of the sea level is required to better understand its variability and changes. Sea level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing a long-term homogeneous and accurate sea level record. The needs and feedback of the climate research community have been collected so that the development of the products is adapted to the users. A first version of the sea level ECV product has been generated during phase I of the project (2011-2013). Within phase II (2014-2016), the 15 partner consortium has prepared the production of a new reprocessed homogeneous and accurate altimeter sea level record which is now available (see http://www.esa-sealevel-cci.org/products ). New level 2 altimeter standards developed and tested within the project as well as external contributions have been identified, processed and evaluated by comparison with a reference for different altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 & 2, ERS-1 & 2, Envisat, GFO, SARAL/AltiKa and CryoSat-2). The main evolutions are associated with the wet troposphere correction (based on the GPD+ algorithm including inter calibration with respect to external sensors) but also to the orbit solutions (POE-E and GFZ15), the ERA-Interim based atmospheric corrections and the FES2014 ocean tide model. A new pole tide solution is used and anomalies are referenced to the MSS DTU15. The presentation will focus on the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level project and on the description of the new SL_cci ECV release covering 1993-2015. The major steps required to produce the reprocessed 23 year climate time series will be described. The impacts of the selected level 2 altimeter standards on the SL_cci ECV have been assessed on different spatial scales (global, regional, mesoscale) and temporal scales (long-term, inter-annual, periodic signals). A significant improvement is observed compared to the current v1.1, with the main impacts observed on the long-term evolution on decadal time scale, on global and regional scales, and for mesoscale signals. The results from product validation, carried out by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community will be also presented.

A New CCI ECV Release (v2.0) to Accurately Measure the Sea Level Change (1993-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, J.; Cazenave, A. A.; Ablain, M.; Gilles, G.; Johannessen, J. A.; Scharffenberg, M. G.; Timms, G.; Andersen, O. B.; Cipollini, P.; Roca, M.; Rudenko, S.; Fernandes, J.; Balmaseda, M.; Quartly, G.; Fenoglio Marc, L.; Meyssignac, B.; Benveniste, J.; Ambrozio, A.; Restano, M.

2016-12-01

Accurate monitoring of the sea level is required to better understand its variability and changes. Sea level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing a long-term homogeneous and accurate sea level record. The needs and feedback of the climate research community have been collected and a first version of the sea level ECV product has been generated with the best algorithms and altimeter standards. This record (1993-2014) has been validated by the climate research community. Within phase II (2014-2016), the 15 partner consortium has prepared the production of a new reprocessed homogeneous and accurate altimeter sea level record which will be distributed in Autumn 2016. New level 2 altimeter standards developed and tested within the project as well as external contributions have been identified, processed and evaluated by comparison with a reference for different altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 & 2, ERS-1 & 2, Envisat and GFO). The main evolutions are associated with the wet troposphere correction (based on the GPD+ algorithm including inter calibration with respect to external sensors) but also to the orbit solutions (POE-E and GFZ15), the ERA-Interim based atmospheric corrections and the FES2014 ocean tide model. A new pole tide solution is used and anomalies are referenced to the MSS DTU15. The presentation will focus on the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level project and on the description of the new SL_cci ECV release covering 1993-2015. The major steps required to produce the reprocessed 23 year climate time series will be described. The impacts of the selected level 2 altimeter standards on the SL_cci ECV have been assessed on different spatial scales (global, regional, mesoscale) and temporal scales (long-term, inter-annual, periodic). A significant improvement is expected compared to the current v1.1, with the main impacts observed on the long-term evolution on decadal time scale, on global and regional scales, and for mesoscale signals. The results from product validation, carried out by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community will be also presented.

A Rossby whistle: A resonant basin mode observed in the Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Joanne; Hibbert, Angela; Boening, Carmen; Oram, James

2016-07-01

We show that an important source of coastal sea level variability around the Caribbean Sea is a resonant basin mode. The mode consists of a baroclinic Rossby wave which propagates westward across the basin and is rapidly returned to the east along the southern boundary as coastal shelf waves. Almost two wavelengths of the Rossby wave fit across the basin, and it has a period of 120 days. The porous boundary of the Caribbean Sea results in this mode exciting a mass exchange with the wider ocean, leading to a dominant mode of bottom pressure variability which is almost uniform over the Grenada, Venezuela, and Colombia basins and has a sharp spectral peak at 120 day period. As the Rossby waves have been shown to be excited by instability of the Caribbean Current, this resonant mode is dynamically equivalent to the operation of a whistle.

Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Change from Coral Microatolls, French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Eisenhauer, A.; Vella, C.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Pothin, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, J.

2017-12-01

Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the Anthropocene. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level changes in French Polynesia encompassing the last 6,000 years were reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene sea-level change from coral microatolls, French Polynesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Eisenhauer, A.; Vella, C.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Pothin, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, J.

2016-12-01

Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the industrial revolution. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

Effects of sea-level rise and pumpage elimination on saltwater intrusion in the Hilton Head Island area, South Carolina, 2004-2104

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payne, Dorothy F.

2010-01-01

Saltwater intrusion of the Upper Floridan aquifer has been observed in the Hilton Head area, South Carolina since the late 1970s and currently affects freshwater supply. Rising sea level in the Hilton Head Island area may contribute to the occurrence of and affect the rate of saltwater intrusion into the Upper Floridan aquifer by increasing the hydraulic gradient and by inundating an increasing area with saltwater, which may then migrate downward into geologic units that presently contain freshwater. Rising sea level may offset any beneficial results from reductions in groundwater pumpage, and thus needs to be considered in groundwater-management decisions. A variable-density groundwater flow and transport model was modified from a previously existing model to simulate the effects of sea-level rise in the Hilton Head Island area. Specifically, the model was used to (1) simulate trends of saltwater intrusion from predevelopment to the present day (1885-2004) and evaluate the conceptual model, (2) project these trends from the present day into the future based on different potential rates of sea-level change, and (3) evaluate the relative influences of pumpage and sea-level rise on saltwater intrusion. Four scenarios were simulated for 2004-2104: (1) continuation of the estimated sea-level rise rate over the last century, (2) a doubling of the sea-level rise, (3) a cessation of sea-level rise, and (4) continuation of the rate over the last century coupled with an elimination of all pumpage. Results show that, if present-day (year 2004) pumping conditions are maintained, the extent of saltwater in the Upper Floridan aquifer will increase, whether or not sea level continues to rise. Furthermore, if all pumpage is eliminated and sea level continues to rise, the simulated saltwater extent in the Upper Floridan aquifer is reduced. These results indicate that pumpage is a strong driving force for simulated saltwater intrusion, more so than sea-level rise at current rates. However, results must be considered in light of limitations in the model, including, but not limited to uncertainty in field data, the conceptual model, the physical properties and representation of the hydrogeologic framework, and boundary and initial conditions, as well as uncertainty in future conditions, such as the rate of sea-level rise.

A nonstationary analysis for the Northern Adriatic extreme sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masina, Marinella; Lamberti, Alberto

2013-09-01

The historical data from the Trieste, Venice, Porto Corsini, and Rimini tide gauges have been used to investigate the spatial and temporal changes in extreme high water levels in the Northern Adriatic. A detailed analysis of annual mean sea level evolution at the three longest operating stations shows a coherent behavior both on a regional and global scale. A slight increase in magnitude of extreme water elevations, after the removal of the regularized annual mean sea level necessary to eliminate the effect of local subsidence and sea level rise, is found at the Venice and Porto Corsini stations. It seems to be mainly associated with a wind regime change occurred in the 1990s, due to an intensification of Bora wind events after their decrease in frequency and intensity during the second half of the 20th century. The extreme values, adjusted for the annual mean sea level trend, are modeled using a time-dependent GEV distribution. The inclusion of seasonality in the GEV parameters considerably improves the data fitting. The interannual fluctuations of the detrended monthly maxima exhibit a significant correlation with the variability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. The different coast exposure to the Bora and Sirocco winds and their seasonal character explain the various seasonal patterns of extreme sea levels observed at the tide gauges considered in the present analysis.

Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.

2001-01-01

The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-year of data set from 1982 through 1998. We correlate the polar climate anomalies with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and examine the composites of these anomalies under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > -1), and negative (SOI < -1) phases of SOL The climate data set consists of sea-level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice data set describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables and the SOL The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen and Ross sea sectors. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillating climate anomalies that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea-level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are clearly evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are apparently associated with the SOI include: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid- 1988 through early 199 1; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and, the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea, and the lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellingshausen Sea and central Weddell Sea gyre over the period 1988-1994. Four ENSO episodes over the last 17 years contributed to a negative mean in the SOI (-0.5). In each of these episodes, significant retreats in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Sea were observed providing direct confirmation of the impact of SO on the Antarctic sea ice cover.

Observing and Studying Extreme Low Pressure Events with Altimetry

PubMed Central

Carrère, Loren; Mertz, Françoise; Dorandeu, Joel; Quilfen, Yves; Patoux, Jerome

2009-01-01

The ability of altimetry to detect extreme low pressure events and the relationship between sea level pressure and sea level anomalies during extra-tropical depressions have been investigated. Specific altimeter treatments have been developed for tropical cyclones and applied to obtain a relevant along-track sea surface height (SSH) signal: the case of tropical cyclone Isabel is presented here. The S- and C-band measurements are used because they are less impacted by rain than the Ku-band, and new sea state bias (SSB) and wet troposphere corrections are proposed. More accurate strong altimeter wind speeds are computed thanks to the Young algorithm. Ocean signals not related to atmospheric pressure can be removed with accuracy, even within a Near Real Time context, by removing the maps of sea level anomaly (SLA) provided by SSALTO/Duacs. In the case of Extra-Tropical Depressions, the classical altimeter processing can be used. Ocean signal not related to atmospheric pressure is along-track filtered. The sea level pressure (SLP)-SLA relationship is investigated for the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Indian oceans; three regression models are proposed allowing restoring an altimeter SLP with a mean error of 5 hPa if compared to ECMWF or buoys SLP. The analysis of barotropic simulation outputs points out the regional variability of the SLP/Model Sea Level relationship and the wind effects. PMID:22573955

Seasonal and interannual variability of chlorophyll-a and associated physical synchronous variability in the western tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Xueyan; Dong, Qing; Xue, Cunjin; Wu, Shuchao

2016-06-01

Based on long-term satellite-derived ocean data sets and methods of empirical orthogonal function and singular value decomposition, we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of the chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL) on seasonal and interannual timescales in the western tropical Pacific associated with physical ocean variables of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level anomaly (SLA) and sea surface wind (SSW), and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. The bio-physical synchronous variation on interannual timescale was also confirmed in terms of the scales of variability and oscillation periods in the time-frequency space using the methods of Fourier transform, Morlet wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence analysis. On a seasonal timescale, the first two modes of the monthly mean CHL fields described the consecutive spatiotemporal variation in CHL in the western tropical Pacific. CHL reached the maximum during late winter-early spring and minimum during summer-early autumn with the exception of the northeast of Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. The CHL bloom in boreal winter-spring was closely associated with cold SST, high sea level along the North Equatorial Countercurrent meanders, and strong wind. On an interannual timescale, the variability of CHL exhibited a close correlation with SST, SLA, SSW, and ENSO. During El Niño, CHL increased in the oligotrophic western basin of the warm pool associated with cold SST, low SLA, and strong westerly winds but decreased in the mesotrophic eastern basin of the warm pool in association with warm SST, high SLA, and weak easterly trade winds. There may exist time-lag for the bio-physical covariation, i.e., CHL and SST varied simultaneously within 1 month, and CHL variations led SLA by approximately 0-3 months but lagged wind speed by about 1 month. In the time-frequency domain, the interannual variability in CHL and physical ocean variables had high common power, indicating that the variability scales and oscillation periods of CHL were significantly related to these of SST, SLA, and ENSO index. The significant anti-phase relationships were also shown between CHL and SST, CHL and SLA, and CHL and multivariate ENSO index through the wavelet coherence analysis.

A note on sea level variability at Clipperton Island from GEOSAT and in-situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maul, George A.; Hansen, Donald V.; Bravo, Nicolas J.

During the 1986-1989 Exact Repeat Mission (ERM) of GEOSAT, in-situ observations of sea level at Clipperton Island (10°N/109°W) and satellite-tracked free-drifting drogued buoys in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are concurrently available. A map of the standard deviations of GEOSAT sea surface heights (2.9 years) shows a variance maximum along ˜12°N from Central America, past Clipperton to ˜160°W. Sea floor pressure gauge observations from a shallow (10m depth) site on Clipperton Island and an ERM crossover point in deep water nearby show a correlation of r = 0.76 with a residual of ±6.7 cm RMS. Approximately 17% of the difference (GEOSAT minus sea level) is characterized by a 4 cm amplitude 0° phase annual harmonic, which is probably caused by unaccounted-for tropospheric water vapor affecting the altimeter and/or ERM orbit error removal. Wintertime anticyclonic mesoscale eddies advecting past Clipperton Island each year have GEOSAT sea surface height and in-situ sea level signals of more than 30 cm, some of which are documented by the satellite-tracked drifters. Meridional profiles of the annual harmonic of zonal geostrophic current from GEOSAT and from the drifters both show synchronous maxima in the North Equatorial Countercurrent and the North Equatorial Current. Other Clipperton sea level maxima seen during late spring of each year may involve anticyclonic vortices formed along Central America the previous winter.

Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.

2002-03-01

The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-yr dataset from 1982 to 1998. The polar climate anomalies are correlated with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the composites of these anomalies are examined under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > 1), and negative (SOI < 1) phases of SOI. The climate dataset consists of sea level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice dataset describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables with the SOI. The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen, and Ross Seas. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillations that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are clearly associated with the SOI include the following: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid-1988 to early 1991; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and the ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea and lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellinghausen Sea, and central Weddell Sea gyre during the period 1988-94. Four ENSO episodes over the last 17 years contributed to a negative mean in the SOI (0.5). In each of these episodes, significant retreats in ice cover of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas were observed showing a unique association of this region of the Antarctic with the Southern Oscillation.

Weighing the Evidence of Ecological Risk From Chemical Contamination in the Estuarine Environment Adjacent to the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, Kittery, Maine, USA

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-05-30

for mussel growth and sea urchin toxicity were medium, we seasonal variations of AVS- SEM in sediments and the degree concluded medium weight of...and phaeopigments), toxicity to fertilization of sea iment (Table 3). Conversely, the measures used for the pelagic urchin (Arbacia punctulata...account for temporal and spatial variability. fidence level (C) for each assessment endpoint were assigned For toxicity to sea urchins , data quality

Deep sea tides determination from GEOS-3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maul, G. A.; Yanaway, A.

1978-01-01

GEOS 3 altimeter data in a 5 degree X 5 degree square centered at 30 deg N, 70 deg W were analyzed to evaluate deep sea tide determination from a spacecraft. The signal to noise ratio of known tidal variability to altimeter measurement of sea level above the ellipsoid was 0.1. A sample was obtained in a 5 deg x 5 deg area approximately once every four days. The randomly spaced time series was analyzed using two independent least squares techniques.

Quaternary Sea-ice history in the Arctic Ocean based on a new Ostracode sea-ice proxy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Gemery, L.; Briggs, W.M.; Jakobsson, M.; Polyak, L.; Brouwers, E.M.

2010-01-01

Paleo-sea-ice history in the Arctic Ocean was reconstructed using the sea-ice dwelling ostracode Acetabulastoma arcticum from late Quaternary sediments from the Mendeleyev, Lomonosov, and Gakkel Ridges, the Morris Jesup Rise and the Yermak Plateau. Results suggest intermittently high levels of perennial sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (25-45 ka), minimal sea ice during the last deglacial (16-11 ka) and early Holocene thermal maximum (11-5 ka) and increasing sea ice during the mid-to-late Holocene (5-0 ka). Sediment core records from the Iceland and Rockall Plateaus show that perennial sea ice existed in these regions only during glacial intervals MIS 2, 4, and 6. These results show that sea ice exhibits complex temporal and spatial variability during different climatic regimes and that the development of modern perennial sea ice may be a relatively recent phenomenon. ?? 2010.

Glacial cycles drive variations in the production of oceanic crust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowley, J. W.; Katz, R. F.; Langmuir, C. H.; Huybers, P. J.

2013-12-01

Changes in sea level accompanying glacial cycles affect the static pressure within the asthenosphere; these variations could modulate melting rates beneath the mid-ocean ridge system as well as crustal thickness. These effects can be investigated and quantified using models of ridges based on conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and composition for two phases (magma & mantle) and two thermodynamic components (enriched & depleted). The models predict that the sensitivity of crustal thickness to oscillations in sea-level depends on the period of oscillation, the spreading rate of the ridge, and the assumed permeability scale of the melting regime. In contrast to previous studies (Huybers & Langmuir, 2009 and Lund & Asimow, 2011), the new results indicate that effects are larger for ridges with faster spreading rates. They also show that the dominant period of variations in crustal thickness changes with spreading rate and permeability. Sea-level variations with periods in the range of 10 ky - 100 ky can result in significant changes in crustal thickness that are orders of magnitude larger than the sea-level variations that drive them. Accurately modelling this process requires the inclusion of two previously unaccounted for processes: (1) determining the volume of the melting regime that is consistent with the ridge spreading rate and (2) properly treating the transport of melt. These enable us to capture the non-linear dependencies on spreading rate and other model parameters. Spectral analysis of bathymetry at two ridge segments that have a symmetric bathymetric signal and hence are undisturbed by off-axis volcanism or ridge jumps reveals the presence of variability at frequencies associated with precession, obliquity, and the 100 ky glacial/inter-glacial variability. Furthermore, the faster spreading ridge has larger amplitude responses to changes in sea level and shows a proportionately greater response at higher frequencies. These observations reinforce the possible links among climate cycles at the surface, mantle melting at depth and the crustal fabric of the sea floor.

Impacts of past climate and sea level change on Everglades wetlands: placing a century of anthropogenic change into a late-Holocene context

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.

2011-01-01

We synthesize existing evidence on the ecological history of the Florida Everglades since its inception ~7 ka (calibrated kiloannum) and evaluate the relative impacts of sea level rise, climate variability, and human alteration of Everglades hydrology on wetland plant communities. Initial freshwater peat accumulation began between 6 and 7 ka on the platform underlying modern Florida Bay when sea level was ~6.2 m below its current position. By 5 ka, sawgrass and waterlily peats covered the area bounded by Lake Okeechobee to the north and the Florida Keys to the south. Slower rates of relative sea level rise ~3 ka stabilized the south Florida coastline and initiated transitions from freshwater to mangrove peats near the coast. Hydrologic changes in freshwater marshes also are indicated ~3 ka. During the last ~2 ka, the Everglades wetland was affected by a series of hydrologic fluctuations related to regional to global-scale fluctuations in climate and sea level. Pollen evidence indicates that regional-scale droughts lasting two to four centuries occurred ~1 ka and ~0.4 ka, altering wetland community composition and triggering development of characteristic Everglades habitats such as sawgrass ridges and tree islands. Intercalation of mangrove peats with estuarine muds ~1 ka indicates a temporary slowing or stillstand of sea level. Although sustained droughts and Holocene sea level rise played large roles in structuring the greater Everglades ecosystem, twentieth century reductions in freshwater flow, compartmentalization of the wetland, and accelerated rates of sea level rise had unprecedented impacts on oxidation and subsidence of organic soils, changes/loss of key Everglades habitats, and altered distribution of coastal vegetation.

Severe flooding along the eastern Adriatic coast: the case of 1 December 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Međugorac, Iva; Pasarić, Miroslava; Orlić, Mirko

2015-06-01

This paper addresses an extraordinary storm surge in the Northern Adriatic that was more pronounced on the eastern than on the western shore. On 1 December 2008, Adriatic monitoring stations detected exceptionally high sea levels; the oldest Croatian tide gauge station recorded the highest water level in its operating history at the time. Apart from the Northern Adriatic, large portion of the Dalmatian Coast was also exposed to high water levels, while Venice experienced a less-dramatic event. This marine storm was different from the capital storm of 4 November 1966 during which the surge had the highest impact ahead of Venice and along the north-western coastline. The 2008 event is studied here in detail, and the mechanisms that resulted in the different flooding of the two shores are identified. The study is based on hourly sea level, air pressure and wind data measured along both basin sides together with ECMWF reanalysis fields. Four components of sea-level evolution are identified: the storm surge, tide, Adriatic seiche and, low-frequency variability. The 2008 event was the outcome of a fine interplay between the first three components, which were all superimposed on the raised sea level due to low-frequency variability. The marine storm differed from the 1966 storm in the atmospheric forcing and relative timing of all contributing processes. The 2008 flooding of the eastern coast was mainly due to the Sirocco-wind shear, whereas the 1966 flooding of the western coast was due to the combined effect of almost uniform Sirocco and bottom slope.

Tropical vegetation evidence for rapid sea level changes associated with Heinrich Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, Catalina; Dupont, Lydie M.

2010-03-01

A Cariaco Basin pollen record shows the development of tropical salt marshes during marine isotope stage 3. Rapid and abrupt expansions of salt marsh vegetation in tropical South America are associated with north Atlantic Heinrich Events stadials (HE-stadials). Intervals of salt marsh expansion have an internal structure, which consists of a recurrent alternation of species that starts with pollen increments of Chenopodiaceae, that are followed by increments of grasses, and subsequently by increments of Cyperaceae. This pattern suggests a successional process that is determined by the close relationship between sea-level and plant community dynamics. The salt tolerant Chenopodiaceae, indicate hypersaline intertidal environments, which were most likely promoted by extremely dry atmospheric conditions. Rapid sea-level rise characterizes the onset of HE-stadials, causing the continued recruitment of pioneer species, which are the only ones tolerating rapid rates of disturbance. Once sea-level rise decelerates, marsh plants are able to trap and stabilize sediments, favouring the establishment of more competitive species. These results add to the scarce knowledge on the dynamics of tropical salt marsh ecosystems, and provide independent paleoclimatic evidence on sea-level changes following Antarctic climate variability.

Sea level forecasts for Pacific Islands based on Satellite Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, H.; Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.; Widlansky, M. J.; Marra, J. J.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding at tropical Pacific Islands often occurs when positive sea level anomalies coincide with high tides. To help mitigate this risk, a forecast tool for daily-averaged sea level anomalies is developed that can be added to predicted tides at tropical Pacific Island sites. The forecast takes advantage of the observed westward propagation that sea level anomalies exhibit over a range of time scales. The daily near-real time altimetry gridded data from Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO) is used to specify upstream sea level at each site, with lead times computed based on mode-one baroclinic Rossby wave speeds. To validate the forecast, hindcasts are compared to tide gauge and nearby AVISO gridded time series. The forecast skills exceed persistence at most stations out to a month or more lead time. The skill is highest at stations where eddy variability is relatively weak. The impacts on the forecasts due to varying propagation speed, decay time, and smoothing of the AVISO data are examined. In addition, the inclusion of forecast winds in a forced wave equation is compared to the freely propagating results. Case studies are presented for seasonally high tide events throughout the Pacific Island region.

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

2003-01-01

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, M.C.

2003-01-01

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981-1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981-1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993-1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system.

The vertical correction of point cloud strips performed over the coastal zone of changing sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasińska-Kolyszko, Ewa; Furmańczyk, Kazimierz

2017-10-01

The main principle of LIDAR is to measure the accurate time of the laser pulses sent from the system to the target surface. In the operation, laser pulses gradually scan the water surface and in combination with aircraft speed they should perform almost simultaneous soundings of each strip. Vectors sent from aircraft to the Sea are linked to the position of the aircraft. Coordinates of the points - X, Y, Z, are calculated at the time of each measurement. LIDAR crosses the surface of the sea while other impulses pass through the water column and, depending on the depth of the water, reflect from the seabed. Optical receiver on board of the aircraft detects pulse reflections from the seabed and sea surface. On the tidal water basins lidar strips must be adjusted by the changes in sea level. The operation should be reduced to a few hours during low water level. Typically, a surface of 20 to 30 km2 should be covered in an hour. The Baltic Sea is an inland sea, and the surveyed area is located in its South - western part, where meteorological and hydrological conditions affect the sea level changes in a short period of time. A lidar measurement of sea surface, that was done within 2 days, in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea and the sea level measured 6 times a day at 8, 12, 16, 20, 00, 04 by a water gauge located in the port of Dziwnów (Poland) were used for this study. On the basis of the lidar data, strips were compared with each other. Calculation of time measurement was made for each single line separately. Profiles showing the variability of sea level for each neighboring and overlapping strips were generated. Differences were calculated changes in sea level were identified and on such basis, an adjustment was possible to perform. Microstation software and terrasolid application were used during the research. The latter allowed automatically and manual classification of the point cloud. A sea surface class was distinguished that way. Point cloud was adjusted to flight lines in terms of time and then compared.

Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, Bruce C.

Twentieth-century relative sea level rise shows considerable variability along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts. Local rates of rise lie in the range of about 1.5 to more than 4 mm per year for records from Key West, Florida, to New York City. Rates of sea level rise in the Gulf of Mexico can be much higher. In Texas and Louisiana, long-term water levels are rising up to about 10 mm per year. This is having disastrous consequences in the form of wetlands loss in the region, estimated to be as much as 65 km2 per year in the Mississippi Delta area of Louisiana alone. Beach erosion is also significant along both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, resulting in ever-increasing exposure of fixed structures to the damaging impacts of storms. The especially high rates of sea level rise in Louisiana and Texas are a result of their particular geomorphology, and anthropogenic alterations in the form of sediment diversion and withdrawal of underground fluids. The average long-term local rate of sea level rise on the rest of the U.S. East and Gulf coasts when corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment is about 2 mm per year, in conformity with 20th century global sea level rise. U.S. East and Gulf coast tide gauge records also have regionally coherent low frequency (decadal and longer) variations that need to be understood because of their impact on wetlands loss, and to enable accurate determination of long-term trends of sea level rise.

Cenozoic stratigraphy of the Sahara, Northern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swezey, Christopher S.

2009-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the Cenozoic stratigraphic record in the Sahara, and shows that the strata display some remarkably similar characteristics across much of the region. In fact, some lithologies of certain ages are exceptionally widespread and persistent, and many of the changes from one lithology to another appear to have been relatively synchronous across the Sahara. The general stratigraphic succession is that of a transition from early Cenozoic carbonate strata to late Cenozoic siliciclastic strata. This transition in lithology coincides with a long-term eustatic fall in sea level since the middle Cretaceous and with a global climate transition from a Late Cretaceous–Early Eocene “warm mode” to a Late Eocene–Quaternary “cool mode”. Much of the shorter-term stratigraphic variability in the Sahara (and even the regional unconformities) also can be correlated with specific changes in sea level, climate, and tectonic activity during the Cenozoic. Specifically, Paleocene and Eocene carbonate strata and phosphate are suggestive of a warm and humid climate, whereas latest Eocene evaporitic strata (and an end-Eocene regional unconformity) are correlated with a eustatic fall in sea level, the build-up of ice in Antarctica, and the appearance of relatively arid climates in the Sahara. The absence of Oligocene strata throughout much of the Sahara is attributed to the effects of generally low eustatic sea level during the Oligocene and tectonic uplift in certain areas during the Late Eocene and Oligocene. Miocene sandstone and conglomerate are attributed to the effects of continued tectonic uplift around the Sahara, generally low eustatic sea level, and enough rainfall to support the development of extensive fluvial systems. Middle–Upper Miocene carbonate strata accumulated in northern Libya in response to a eustatic rise in sea level, whereas Upper Miocene mudstone accumulated along the south side of the Atlas Mountains because uplift of the mountains blocked fluvial access to the Mediterranean Sea. Uppermost Miocene evaporites (and an end-Miocene regional unconformity) in the northern Sahara are correlated with the Messinian desiccation of the Mediterranean Sea. Abundant and widespread Pliocene paleosols are attributed to the onset of relatively arid climate conditions and (or) greater variability of climate conditions, and the appearance of persistent and widespread eolian sediments in the Sahara is coincident with the major glaciation in the northern hemisphere during the Pliocene.

Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Color Variability in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conaty, A. P.

2001-12-01

The South China Sea is a marginal sea in the Southeast Asian region whose surface circulation is driven by monsoons and whose surface currents have complex seasonal patterns. Its rich natural resources and strategic location have made its small islands areas of political dispute among the neighboring nations. This study aims to show the seasonal and interannual variability of sea surface temperature and ocean color in South China Sea. It makes use of NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data sets on sea surface temperature for the period 1981-2000 and NASA's Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite data sets on pigment concentration (ocean color) for the period 1981-1996 and 1997-2000, respectively. Transect lines were drawn along several potential hotspot areas to show the variability in sea surface temperature and pigment concentration through time. In-situ data on sea surface temperature along South China Sea were likewise plotted to see the variability with time. Higher seasonal variability in sea surface temperature was seen at higher latitudes. Interannual variability was within 1-3 Kelvin. In most areas, pigment concentration was higher during northern hemisphere winter and autumn, after the monsoon rains, with a maximum of 30 milligrams per cubic meter.

Cardiovascular autonomic modulation and activity of carotid baroreceptors at altitude.

PubMed

Bernardi, L; Passino, C; Spadacini, G; Calciati, A; Robergs, R; Greene, R; Martignoni, E; Anand, I; Appenzeller, O

1998-11-01

1. To assess the effects of acute exposure to high altitude on baroreceptor function in man we evaluated the effects of baroreceptor activation on R-R interval and blood pressure control at high altitude. We measured the low-frequency (LF) and high-frequency (HF) components in R-R, non-invasive blood pressure and skin blood flow, and the effect of baroreceptor modulation by 0. 1-Hz sinusoidal neck suction. Ten healthy sea-level natives and three high-altitude native, long-term sea-level residents were evaluated at sea level, upon arrival at 4970 m and 1 week later.2. Compared with sea level, acute high altitude decreased R-R and increased blood pressure in all subjects [sea-level natives: R-R from 1002+/-45 to 775+/-57 ms, systolic blood pressure from 130+/-3 to 150+/-8 mmHg; high-altitude natives: R-R from 809+/-116 to 749+/-47 ms, systolic blood pressure from 110+/-12 to 125+/-11 mmHg (P<0.05 for all)]. One week later systolic blood pressure was similar to values at sea level in all subjects, whereas R-R remained elevated in sea-level natives. The low-frequency power in R-R and systolic blood pressure increased in sea-level natives [R-R-LF from 47+/-8 to 65+/-10% (P<0.05), systolic blood pressure-LF from 1.7+/-0. 3 to 2.6+/-0.4 ln-mmHg2 (P<0.05)], but not in high-altitude natives (R-R-LF from 32+/-13 to 38+/-19%, systolic blood pressure-LF from 1. 9+/-0.5 to 1.7+/-0.8 ln-mmHg2). The R-R-HF decreased in sea-level natives but not in high-altitude natives, and no changes occurred in systolic blood pressure-HF. These changes remained evident 1 week later. Skin blood flow variability and its spectral components decreased markedly at high altitude in sea-level natives but showed no changes in high-altitude natives. Neck suction significantly increased the R-R- and systolic blood pressure-LF in all subjects at both sea level and high altitude.3. High altitude induces sympathetic activation in sea-level natives which is partially counteracted by active baroreflex. Despite long-term acclimatization at sea level, high-altitude natives also maintain active baroreflex at high altitude but with lower sympathetic activation, indicating a persisting high-altitude adaptation which may be genetic or due to baroreflex activity not completely lost by at least 1 year's sea-level residence.

Quantitative Assessment of Antarctic Climate Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordonez, A.; Schneider, D. P.

2013-12-01

The Antarctic climate is both extreme and highly variable, but there are indications it may be changing. As the climate in Antarctica can affect global sea level and ocean circulation, it is important to understand and monitor its behavior. Observational and model data have been used to study climate change in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, though observational data is sparse and models have difficulty reproducing many observed climate features. For example, a leading hypothesis that ozone depletion has been responsible for sea ice trends is struggling with the inability of ozone-forced models to reproduce the observed sea ice increase. The extent to which this data-model disagreement represents inadequate observations versus model biases is unknown. This research assessed a variety of climate change indicators to present an overview of Antarctic climate that will allow scientists to easily access this data and compare indicators with other observational data and model output. Indicators were obtained from observational and reanalysis data for variables such as temperature, sea ice area, and zonal wind stress. Multiple datasets were used for key variables. Monthly and annual anomaly data from Antarctica and the Southern Ocean as well as tropical indices were plotted as time series on common axes for comparison. Trends and correlations were also computed. Zonal wind, surface temperature, and austral springtime sea ice had strong relationships and were further discussed in terms of how they may relate to climate variability and change in the Antarctic. This analysis will enable hypothesized mechanisms of Antarctic climate change to be critically evaluated.

Rapid Ice-Sheet Changes and Mechanical Coupling to Solid-Earth/Sea-Level and Space Geodetic Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2015-12-01

Perturbations in gravitational and rotational potentials caused by climate driven mass redistribution on the earth's surface, such as ice sheet melting and terrestrial water storage, affect the spatiotemporal variability in global and regional sea level. Here we present a numerically accurate, computationally efficient, high-resolution model for sea level. Unlike contemporary models that are based on spherical-harmonic formulation, the model can operate efficiently in a flexible embedded finite-element mesh system, thus capturing the physics operating at km-scale yet capable of simulating geophysical quantities that are inherently of global scale with minimal computational cost. One obvious application is to compute evolution of sea level fingerprints and associated geodetic and astronomical observables (e.g., geoid height, gravity anomaly, solid-earth deformation, polar motion, and geocentric motion) as a companion to a numerical 3-D thermo-mechanical ice sheet simulation, thus capturing global signatures of climate driven mass redistribution. We evaluate some important time-varying signatures of GRACE inferred ice sheet mass balance and continental hydrological budget; for example, we identify dominant sources of ongoing sea-level change at the selected tide gauge stations, and explain the relative contribution of different sources to the observed polar drift. We also report our progress on ice-sheet/solid-earth/sea-level model coupling efforts toward realistic simulation of Pine Island Glacier over the past several hundred years.

Historical Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of the Ponto-Caspian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koriche, Sifan A.; Singarayer, Joy S.; Coe, Michael T.; Nandini, Sri; Prange, Matthias; Cloke, Hannah; Lunt, Dan

2017-04-01

The Ponto-Caspian basin is one of the largest basins globally, composed of a closed basin (Caspian Sea) and open basins connecting to the global ocean (Black and Azov Sea). Over the historical time period (1850-present) Caspian Sea levels have varied between -25 and -29mbsl (Arpe et al., 2012), resulting in considerable changes to the area of the lake (currently 371,000 km2). Given projections of future climate change and the importance of the Caspian Sea for fisheries, agriculture, and industry, it is vital to understand how sea levels may vary in the future. Hydrological models can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes for future forecasts. However, it is critical to first evaluate such models using observational data for the present and recent past, and to understand the key hydrological processes driving past changes in sea level. In this study, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model (THMB) (Coe, 2000, 2002) is applied and evaluated to investigate the hydrological processes of the Ponto-Caspian basin for the historical period 1900 to 2000. The model has been forced using observational reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-20) and historical climate model data outputs (from CESM and HadCM3 models) to investigate the variability in the Caspian Sea level and the major river discharges. We examine the differences produced by driving the hydrological model with reanalysis data or climate models. We evaluate the model performance compared to observational discharge measurements and Caspian Sea level data. Secondly, we investigated the sensitivity of historical Caspian Sea level variations to different aspects of climate changes to examine the most important processes involved over this time period.

Hydroclimatic variability in the Levant during the early last glacial (∼ 117-75 ka) derived from micro-facies analyses of deep Dead Sea sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neugebauer, I.; Schwab, M. J.; Waldmann, N. D.; Tjallingii, R.; Frank, U.; Hadzhiivanova, E.; Naumann, R.; Taha, N.; Agnon, A.; Enzel, Y.; Brauer, A.

2015-08-01

The new sediment record from the deep Dead Sea basin (ICDP core 5017-1) provides a unique archive for hydroclimatic variability in the Levant. Here, we present high-resolution sediment facies analysis and elemental composition by μXRF scanning of core 5017-1 to trace lake levels and responses of the regional hydroclimatology during the time interval from ca 117-75 ka, i.e. the transition between the last interglacial and the onset of the last glaciation. We distinguished six major micro-facies types and interpreted these and their alterations in the core in terms of relative lake level changes. The two end-member facies for highest and lowest lake levels are (a) up to several meters thick, greenish sediments of alternating aragonite and detrital marl laminae (aad) and (b) thick halite facies, respectively. Intermediate lake levels are characterised by detrital marls with varying amounts of aragonite, gypsum or halite, reflecting lower-amplitude, shorter-term variability. Two intervals of pronounced lake level drops occurred at ∼110-108 ± 5 and ∼93-87 ± 7 ka. They likely coincide with stadial conditions in the central Mediterranean (Melisey I and II pollen zones in Monticchio) and low global sea levels during MIS 5d and 5b. However, our data do not support the current hypothesis of an almost complete desiccation of the Dead Sea during the earlier of these lake level low stands based on a recovered gravel layer. Based on new petrographic analyses, we propose that, although it was a low stand, this well-sorted gravel layer may be a vestige of a thick turbidite that has been washed out during drilling rather than an in-situ beach deposit. Two intervals of higher lake stands at ∼108-93 ± 6 and ∼87-75 ± 7 ka correspond to interstadial conditions in the central Mediterranean, i.e. pollen zones St. Germain I and II in Monticchio, and GI 24 + 23 and 21 in Greenland, as well as to sapropels S4 and S3 in the Mediterranean Sea. These apparent correlations suggest a close link of the climate in the Levant to North Atlantic and Mediterranean climates during the time of the build-up of Northern Hemisphere ice shields in the early last glacial period.

On the Impact of Sea Level Fingerprints on the Estimation of the Meridional Geostrophic Transport in the Atlantic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, C. W.; Velicogna, I.

2017-12-01

The mid-ocean geostrophic transport accounts for more than half of the seasonal and inter-annual variabilities in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) based on the in-situ measurement from RAPID MOC/MOCHA array since 2004. Here, we demonstrate that the mid-ocean geostrophic transport estimates derived from ocean bottom pressure (OBP) are affected by the sea level fingerprint (SLF), which is a variation of the equi-geopotential height (relative sea level) due to rapid mass unloading of the entire Earth system and in particular from glaciers and ice sheets. This potential height change, although it alters the OBP, should not be included in the derivation of the mid-ocean geostrophic transport. This "pseudo" geostrophic-transport due to the SLF is in-phase with the seasonal and interannual signal in the upper mid-ocean geostrophic transport. The east-west SLF gradient across the Atlantic basin could be mistaken as a north-south geostrophic transport that increases by 54% of its seasonal variability and by 20% of its inter-annual variability. This study demonstrates for the first time the importance of this pseudo transport in both the annual and interannual signals by comparing the SLF with in-situ observation from RAPID MOC/MOCHA array. The pseudo transport needs to be taken into account if OBP measurements and remote sensing are used to derive mid-ocean geostrophic transport.

Loggerhead sea turtle environmental sex determination: implications of moisture and temperature for climate change based predictions for species survival.

PubMed

Wyneken, Jeanette; Lolavar, Alexandra

2015-05-01

It has been proposed that because marine turtles have environmentally determined sex by incubation temperature, elevated temperatures might skew sex ratios to unsustainable levels, leading to extinction. Elevated temperatures may also reduce availability of suitable nesting sites via sea level rise. Increased tropical storm activity can directly affect nest site moisture, embryonic development, and the probability that nests will survive. Here, we question some of these assumptions and review the limits of sex ratio estimates. Sea turtles may be more resilient to climate change than previously thought, in part because of hitherto unappreciated mechanisms for coping with variable incubation conditions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An Earth's Future Special Collection: Impacts of the coastal dynamics of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kidwell, David M.; Dietrich, J. Casey; Hagen, Scott C.; Medeiros, Stephen C.

2017-01-01

Rising sea level represents a significant threat to coastal communities and ecosystems, including altered habitats and increased vulnerability to coastal storms and recurrent inundation. This threat is exemplified in the northern Gulf of Mexico, where low topography, marshes, and a prevalence of tropical storms have resulted in extensive coastal impacts. The ability to facilitate adaptation and mitigation measures relies, in part, on the development of robust predictive capabilities that incorporate complex biological processes with physical dynamics. Initiated in 2010, the 6-year Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise—Northern Gulf of Mexico project applied a transdisciplinary science approach to develop a suite of integrated modeling platforms informed by empirical data that are capable of evaluating a range of climate change scenarios. This special issue highlights resultant integrated models focused on tidal hydrodynamics, shoreline morphology, oyster ecology, coastal wetland vulnerability, and storm surges that demonstrate the need for dynamic models to incorporate feedbacks among physical and biological processes in assessments of sea level rise effects on coastal systems. Effects are projected to be significant, spatially variable and nonlinear relative to sea level rise rates. Scenarios of higher sea level rise rates are projected to exceed thresholds of wetland sustainability, and many regions will experience enhanced storm surges. Influenced by an extensive collaborative stakeholder engagement process, these assessments on the coastal dynamics of sea level rise provide a strong foundation for resilience measures in the northern Gulf of Mexico and a transferable approach for application to other coastal regions throughout the world.

Holocene reef development where wave energy reduces accommodation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grossman, Eric E.; Fletcher, Charles H.

2004-01-01

Analyses of 32 drill cores obtained from the windward reef of Kailua Bay, Oahu, Hawaii, indicate that high wave energy significantly reduced accommodation space for reef development in the Holocene and produced variable architecture because of the combined influence of sea-level history and wave exposure over a complex antecedent topography. A paleostream valley within the late Pleistocene insular limestone shelf provided accommodation space for more than 11 m of vertical accretion since sea level flooded the bay 8000 yr BP. Virtually no net accretion (pile-up of fore-reef-derived rubble (rudstone) and sparse bindstone, and (3) a final stage of catch-up bindstone accretion in depths > 6 m. Coral framestone accreted at rates of 2.5-6.0 mm/yr in water depths > 11 m during the early Holocene; it abruptly terminated at ~4500 yr BP because of wave scour as sea level stabilized. More than 4 m of rudstone derived from the upper fore reef accreted at depths of 6 to 13 m below sea level between 4000 and 1500 yr BP coincident with late Holocene relative sea-level fall. Variations in the thickness, composition, and age of these reef facies across spatial scales of 10-1000 m within Kailua Bay illustrate the importance of antecedent topography and wave-related stress in reducing accommodation space for reef development set by sea level. Although accommodation space of 6 to 17 m has existed through most of the Holocene, the Kailua reef has been unable to catch up to sea level because of persistent high wave stress.

Interannual Variation of Sea Level in the South Atlantic Based on Satellite Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grodsky, S. A.; Carton, J. A.

2006-07-01

13 years of altimeter month ly sea level ar e used to explore interannual variability of the South Atlantic. The strongest v ariability outside the eastern and western boundaries is conf ined to a relatively narrow zonally oriented band b etw een 35°S and 25°S, the Agulhas eddy corridor. On th eir way across th e South Atlantic th e Agulh as eddies g ain energy on the southern flank of the eddy corridor via baro tropic conversions by deceler ating the South Atlan tic Curren t. On interannual time scales the sea level in the corridor fluctu ates out of phase in the w est and east r evealing noticeab le v ariations of 10 cm amp litude at 4 to 5 year periods.

Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu

2017-10-01

Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to mixed-layer oceanic model. The rainfall anomaly (with respect to control simulation), forced by the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly and averaged over the 30-year period, exhibits prevalence of dry conditions over East and equatorial Africa in agreement with observation. The atmospheric response to secular SST warming anomaly led to divergent flow at low levels and subsidence at the upper troposphere over regions north of 5° S on the continent and vice versa over the Indian Ocean. This surface difluence over East Africa, in addition to its role in suppressing convective activity, deprives the region of moisture supply from the Indian Ocean as well as the Atlantic and Congo basins.

Applying generalized linear models as an explanatory tool of sex steroids, thyroid hormones and their relationships with environmental and physiologic factors in immature East Pacific green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas).

PubMed

Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Méndez-Rodríguez, Lia C; Mangel, Marc; Zenteno-Savín, Tania

2013-09-01

Generalized linear models were fitted to evaluate the relationship between 17β-estradiol (E2), testosterone (T) and thyroxine (T4) levels in immature East Pacific green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) and their body condition, size, mass, blood biochemistry parameters, handling time, year, season and site of capture. According to external (tail size) and morphological (<77.3 straight carapace length) characteristics, 95% of the individuals were juveniles. Hormone levels, assessed on sea turtles subjected to a capture stress protocol, were <34.7nmolTL(-1), <532.3pmolE2 L(-1) and <43.8nmolT4L(-1). The statistical model explained biologically plausible metabolic relationships between hormone concentrations and blood biochemistry parameters (e.g. glucose, cholesterol) and the potential effect of environmental variables (season and study site). The variables handling time and year did not contribute significantly to explain hormone levels. Differences in sex steroids between season and study sites found by the models coincided with specific nutritional, physiological and body condition differences related to the specific habitat conditions. The models correctly predicted the median levels of the measured hormones in green sea turtles, which confirms the fitted model's utility. It is suggested that quantitative predictions could be possible when the model is tested with additional data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms driving variability in the ocean forcing of Pine Island Glacier

PubMed Central

Webber, Benjamin G. M.; Heywood, Karen J.; Stevens, David P.; Dutrieux, Pierre; Abrahamsen, E. Povl; Jenkins, Adrian; Jacobs, Stanley S.; Ha, Ho Kyung; Lee, Sang Hoon; Kim, Tae Wan

2017-01-01

Pine Island Glacier (PIG) terminates in a rapidly melting ice shelf, and ocean circulation and temperature are implicated in the retreat and growing contribution to sea level rise of PIG and nearby glaciers. However, the variability of the ocean forcing of PIG has been poorly constrained due to a lack of multi-year observations. Here we show, using a unique record close to the Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIIS), that there is considerable oceanic variability at seasonal and interannual timescales, including a pronounced cold period from October 2011 to May 2013. This variability can be largely explained by two processes: cumulative ocean surface heat fluxes and sea ice formation close to PIIS; and interannual reversals in ocean currents and associated heat transport within Pine Island Bay, driven by a combination of local and remote forcing. Local atmospheric forcing therefore plays an important role in driving oceanic variability close to PIIS. PMID:28211473

Statistical prediction of September Arctic Sea Ice minimum based on stable teleconnections with global climate and oceanic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad information interest exists on sea ice, its coverage, variability and long term change. Knowledge on sea ice requires high quality data on ice extent, thickness and its dynamics. However, its predictability depends on various climate parameters and conditions. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal, we developed a robust statistical model based on ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September minimum sea ice extent for every year. Although previous statistical attempts at monthly/seasonal forecasts of September sea ice minimum show a relatively reduced skill, here it is shown that more than 97% (r = 0.98) of the September sea ice extent can predicted three months in advance by using previous months conditions via a multiple linear regression model based on global sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature at 850hPa (TT850), surface winds and sea ice extent persistence. The statistical model is based on the identification of regions with stable teleconnections between the predictors (climatological parameters) and the predictand (here sea ice extent). The results based on our statistical model contribute to the sea ice prediction network for the sea ice outlook report (https://www.arcus.org/sipn) and could provide a tool for identifying relevant regions and climate parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

Does the poleward boundary current off Western Australia exert a dominant influence on coastal chaetognaths and siphonophores?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaughan, D. J.; Pearce, A. F.; Lewis, P. D.

2009-08-01

A transect that extended 40 km offshore across the continental shelf off Perth, Western Australia, was sampled monthly during 1997 and 1998. Zooplankton was sampled at 5 km intervals with a 300 micron-mesh bongo net deployed vertically to within 3 m of the bottom, or to a maximum depth of 70 m. Numbers of species of chaetognaths and siphonores were quantified, as were abundances of the common species from these groups and of the hydromedusae Auglaura hemistoma. The potential influences of four environmental variables (sea-level, sea surface temperature, salinity and chlorophyll concentration) on variability in diversity and abundance were assessed using generalized additive modeling. A combination of factors were found to influence the seasonal and spatial biological variability and, of these factors, non-linear relationships always contributed to the best fitting models. In all but one case, each of the environmental variables was included in the final model. The seasonally variable Leeuwin Current, whose strength is measured as variations in local sea-level, is the dominant mesoscale oceanographic feature in the study region but was not found to have an overriding influence on the shelf zooplankton. This contrasts a previous hypothesis that subjectively attributed seasonal variability of the same taxa examined in this study to seasonal variations in the Leeuwin Current. There remains a poor understanding of shelf zooplankton off Western Australia and, in particular, of the processes that influence seasonal and spatial variability. A more complete understanding of potential causative influences of the Leeuwin Current on the shelf plankton community of south-western Australia must be cognizant of a range of biophysical factors operating at both the broader mesoscale and at smaller scales within the shelf pelagic ecosystem.

The influence of wave energy and sediment transport on seagrass distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Andrew W.; Lacy, Jessica R.

2012-01-01

A coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model (Delft3D) was used to simulate the water levels, waves, and currents associated with a seagrass (Zostera marina) landscape along a 4-km stretch of coast in Puget Sound, WA, USA. A hydroacoustic survey of seagrass percent cover and nearshore bathymetry was conducted, and sediment grain size was sampled at 53 locations. Wave energy is a primary factor controlling seagrass distribution at the site, accounting for 73% of the variability in seagrass minimum depth and 86% of the variability in percent cover along the shallow, sandy portions of the coast. A combination of numerical simulations and a conceptual model of the effect of sea-level rise on the cross-shore distribution of seagrass indicates that the area of seagrass habitat may initially increase and that wave dynamics are an important factor to consider in predicting the effect of sea-level rise on seagrass distributions in wave-exposed areas.

Abrupt aridities in the Levant-Sahel linked with solar activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, M.; Kushnir, Y.

2012-04-01

Observations of 19th and 20th century precipitation in the Dead Sea watershed region display a multidecadal, anti-phase relationship to North Atlantic (NAtl) sea surface temperature (SST) variability, such that when the NAtl is relatively cold, Jerusalem experiences higher than normal precipitation and vice versa. This association is underlined by a negative correlation to precipitation in the sub-Saharan Sahel and a positive correlation to precipitation in western North America, areas that are also affected by multidecadal NAtl SST variability. These observations are consistent with broad range of Holocene hydroclimatic fluctuations from the epochal, to the millennial and centennial time scales, as displayed by the Dead Sea and Sahelian lake levels and by direct and indirect proxy indicators of NAtl SSTs. On the epochal time scale, the gradual cooling of NAtl SSTs throughout the Holocene in response to precession-driven reduction of summer insolation is associated with previously well-studied wet-to-dry transition in the Sahel and with a general increase in Dead Sea lake levels from low stands after the Younger Dryas to higher stands in the mid- to late-Holocene. On the millennial and centennial time scales there is also evidence for an antiphase relationship between Holocene variations in the Dead Sea and Sahelian lake levels and with proxy indicators of NAtl SSTs. However, the records are punctuated by abrupt lake-level drops and extensive expansion of the desert belt at ~8.1, 5.7, 3.3 and 1.4 ka cal BP, which appear to be in-phase and which occur during previously documented abrupt major cooling events in the Northern Hemisphere. We link these cooling to solar activity variations that were identified in the North Atlantic IRD and cosmogenic isotopes records.

Storm surges in the White and Barents Seas: formation, statistics, analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korablina, Anastasia; Arkhipkin, Victor

2017-04-01

Arctic seas storm surges investigation are high priority in Russia due to the active development of offshore oil and gas, construction of facilities in the coastal zone, as well as for the navigation safety. It is important to study the surges variability, to predict this phenomena and subsequent economic losses, thus including such information into the Russian Arctic Development Program 2020. White and Barents Seas storm surges are caused mainly by deep cyclones of two types: "diving" from the north (88% of all cyclones) and Atlantic from the west. The surge height was defined as the excess of the level that was obtained as the difference between the observed level and subtracting tide level and low-frequency level. The period of low-frequency level oscillation was determined by spectral analysis of the in-situ data. ADCIRC model is used for calculating the storm surge height. We did the calculations on unstructured grid with variable step from 50 to 5000 m. The ADCIRC model was based on the data on wind field, the sea level pressure, the concentration of ice reanalysis CFSR (1979-2010) in increments 0.3°, CFSv2 (2011-2015) in increments 0.2°. On the boundary conditions harmonic constants from Finite Element Solution tide model 2004 (FES2004) in increments 1/8° were set. The following stations on the coast Varandey, Pechora Bay, Chosha Bay, Severodvinsk, Onega, Solovki and other were selected for the storm surges statistical analysis in the period 1979-2015. The number of storm surges (> 0.3 m) long-term variability was obtained, the number of surges at a height (m) range (0.3-0.6, 0.6-0.9, 0.9-1.2, >1.2) was estimated. It shows that 1980 and 1998 are the years with the fewest number storms. For example, the largest number of storm surge (53) was observed in 1995 in Varandey. The height of the surge, possible only once in 100 years, is counted. This maximum height (m) of the surge was noted in Varandey (4.1), Chosha Bay (3.4), Barents Sea, Onega Bay (2.4), White Sea. Quantitative assessment of the pressure and wind contributing to the surge formation was made. The analysis has shown that the wind has a larger contribution (90%) to surge formation in the study area. The study was performed in the framework of the Russian Science Foundation (project 14-37-00038).

Intraseasonal flow and its impact on the chlorophyll-a concentration in the Sunda Strait and its vicinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Tengfei; Li, Shujiang; Hamzah, Faisal; Setiawan, Agus; Susanto, R. Dwi; Cao, Guojiao; Wei, Zexun

2018-06-01

Sunda Strait is the outflow strait of the South China Sea branch of the Pacific to Indian Ocean Throughflow. The annual mean volume transport through the Sunda Strait is around 0.25 Sv from the Java Sea to the eastern Indian Ocean, only 2.5% of the IndonesianThroughflow, and thus has been ignored by previous investigations. However, the Nutrient concentrations in the Sunda Strait and its vicinity are found highly related to the water transport through the Sunda Strait. Particularly, our observation shows significant intraseasonal variability (ISV) of currents at period around 25-45 days in the Sunda Strait. Both remote and local wind forcing contribute to the ISVs in the Sunda Strait. The intraseasonal oscillation of sea surface wind in the central Indian Ocean drives upwelling/downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves to propagate along the equator and subsequently along the Sumatra-Java coasts, resulting in negative/positive sea level anomalies in the south of the Sunda Strait. The local intraseasonal sea surface wind anomalies also tend to induce negative/positive sea level anomalies in the south of the Sunda Strait by offshore/onshore Ekman transport while there are upwelling/downwelling events. The ensuring sea level gradient associated with the sea level anomalies in the south of the Sunda Strait induces intraseasonal outflow (from Indian Ocean to Java Sea) and inflow (from Java Sea to Indian Ocean) through the strait. Analyses also show that the chlorophyll-a concentrations in the south of the Sunda Strait are lower/higher during the inflow/outflow period of the ISV events in March through May. The mechanism attributes to both the nutrient-rich water transported by the intraseasonal flow in the Sunda Strait and by the upwelling and Ekman transport driven by the local sea surface wind anomalies.

Low-frequency variability of the Atlantic MOC in the eddying regime : the intrinsic component.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregorio, S.; Penduff, T.; Barnier, B.; Molines, J.-M.; Le Sommer, J.

2012-04-01

A 327-year 1/4° global ocean/sea-ice simulation has been produced by the DRAKKAR ocean modeling consortium. This simulation is forced by a repeated seasonal atmospheric forcing but nevertheless exhibits a substantial low-frequency variability (at interannual and longer timescales), which is therefore of intrinsic origin. This nonlinearly-generated intrinsic variability is almost absent from the coarse-resolution (2°) version of this simulation. Comparing the 1/4° simulation with its fully-forced counterpart, Penduff et al. (2011) have shown that the low-frequency variability of local sea-level is largely generated by the ocean itself in eddying areas, rather than directly forced by the atmosphere. Using the same simulations, the present study quantifies the imprint of the intrinsic low-frequency variability on the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) at interannual-to-decadal timescales in the Atlantic. We first compare the intrinsic and atmospherically-forced interannual variances of the Atlantic MOC calculated in geopotential coordinates. This analysis reveals substantial sources of intrinsic MOC variability in the South Atlantic (driven by the Agulhas mesoscale activity according to Biastoch et al. (2008)), but also in the North Atlantic. We extend our investigation to the MOC calculated in isopycnal coordinates, and identify regions in the basin where the water mass transformation exhibits low-frequency intrinsic variability. In this eddy-permitting regime, intrinsic processes are shown to generate about half the total (geopotential and isopycnal) MOC interannual variance in certain key regions of the Atlantic. This intrinsic variability is absent from 2° simulations. Penduff, T., Juza, M., Barnier, B., Zika, J., Dewar, W.K., Treguier, A.-M., Molines, J.-M., Audiffren, N., 2011: Sea-level expression of intrinsic and forced ocean variabilities at interannual time scales. J. Climate, 24, 5652-5670. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00077.1. Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Lutjeharms, J. R. E., 2008: Agulhas leakage dynamics affects decadal variability in Atlantic overturning circulation. Nature, 456, 489-492, doi: 10.1038/nature07426.

Reclaiming the past: Using hierarchical Bayesian analysis to fill missing values in the tide gauge mean sea level record, with application to extreme value analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Tingley, M.

2015-12-01

Tide gauge records of mean sea level are some of the most valuable instrumental time series of oceanic variability and change. Yet these time series sometimes have short record lengths and intermittently missing values. Such issues can limit the utility of the data, for example, precluding rigorous analyses of return periods of extreme mean sea level events and whether they are unprecedented. With a view to filling gaps in the tide gauge mean sea level time series, we describe a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach. The model, which is predicated on the notion of conditional probabilities, comprises three levels: a process level, which casts mean sea level as a field with spatiotemporal covariance; a data level, which represents tide gauge observations as noisy, biased versions of the true process; and a prior level, which gives prior functional forms to model parameters. Using Bayes' rule, this technique gives estimates of the posterior probability of the process and the parameters given the observations. To demonstrate the approach, we apply it to 2,967 station-years of annual mean sea level observations over 1856-2013 from 70 tide gauges along the United States East Coast from Florida to Maine (i.e., 26.8% record completeness). The model overcomes the data paucity by sharing information across space and time. The result is an ensemble of realizations, each member of which is a possible history of sea level changes at these locations over this period, which is consistent with and equally likely given the tide gauge data and underlying model assumptions. Using the ensemble of histories furnished by the Bayesian model, we identify extreme events of mean sea level change in the tide gauge time series. Specifically, we use the model to address the particular hypothesis (with rigorous uncertainty quantification) that a recently reported interannual sea level rise during 2008-2010 was unprecedented in the instrumental record along the northeast coast of North America, and that it had a return period of 850 years. Preliminary analysis suggests that this event was likely unprecedented on the coast of Maine in the last century.

Time series analysis of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave via symbolic transfer entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Mingi; Kim, Sehyun; Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Soo Yong

2018-06-01

An attempt to interpret a large-scale climate phenomenon in the Southern Ocean (SO), the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW), has been made using an information entropy method, symbolic transfer entropy (STE). Over the areas of 50-60∘S latitude belt, information flow for four climate variables, sea surface temperature (SST), sea-ice edge (SIE), sea level pressure (SLP) and meridional wind speed (MWS) is examined. We found a tendency that eastward flow of information is preferred only for oceanic variables, which is a main characteristic of the ACW, an eastward wave making a circuit around the Antarctica. Since the ACW is the coherent pattern in both ocean and atmosphere it is reasonable to infer that the tendency reflects the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) encircling the Antarctica, rather than an evidence of the ACW. We observed one common feature for all four variables, a strong information flow over the area of the eastern Pacific Ocean, which suggest a signature of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Arctic circulation regimes

PubMed Central

Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2015-01-01

Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. PMID:26347536

Using stable isotopes to investigate individual diet specialization in California sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newsome, S.D.; Tinker, M.T.; Monson, Daniel H.; Oftedal, O.T.; Ralls, K.; Staedler, M.M.; Fogel, M.L.; Estes, J.A.

2009-01-01

Differences in diet composition among conspecifics (dietary specialization) have been documented across a broad range of taxonomic groups and habitats, and such variation at the individual level is increasingly recognized as an important component of diversity in trophic interactions. Accurate identification of individual dietary specialization, however, requires longitudinal dietary records that are labor-intensive and cost-prohibitive to obtain for many species. Here we explore the use of stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) as a promising technique for detecting and quantifying patterns of individual dietary specialization. Southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) offer a unique opportunity for testing this approach because (1) they consume a wide variety of prey that span multiple trophic levels, habitats, and ecologically defined functional groups; and (2) individual diet specialization can be validated with existing observational data. We analyzed the isotopic composition of sea otter vibrissae (n = 31) in order to characterize inter- and intra-individual variation in sea otter diets at Monterey Bay, California, USA. At the population level, sea otters showed substantial variation in both δ13C and δ15N values, occupying nearly all of the “isotopic space” created by the diversity of isotopic signatures of potential prey taxa. Most of the variation in sea otter vibrissae was accounted for by differences between individuals, with much less contributed by within-individual variation. A majority of sea otters (∼80%) showed relatively little temporal variability in isotopic composition, suggesting that the proportional composition of most individuals' diets is relatively constant over time; a few individuals (∼20%) exhibited a high degree of intra-vibrissa isotopic variability, suggesting seasonal shifts in diet composition. These results and our interpretation of them were supported by long-term observational data on the diets of radio-tagged sea otters from the same population (n = 23). Our results demonstrate that stable isotopes can provide an efficient tool for measuring individual- and population-level dietary breadth and may be useful for studying populations where longitudinal data on individuals would otherwise be impossible to acquire. This will be critical for examining the causes and consequences of dietary variation within and among consumer populations, thereby improving our understanding of these important ecological and evolutionary processes at the community level.

Current and Future Urban Stormwater Flooding Scenarios in the Southeast Florida Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huq, E.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

This study computed rainfall-fed stormwater flooding under the historical and future reference scenarios for the Southeast Coasts Basin of Florida. A large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model was developed using the U.S. E.P.A. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). The model parameterized important processes of urban hydrology, groundwater, and sea level, while including hydroclimatological variables and land use features. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. It was then used to estimate the sensitivity of stormwater runoff to the reference changes in hydroclimatological variables (rainfall and evapotranspiration) and different land use/land cover features (imperviousness, roughness). Furthermore, historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets were also estimated for the Florida Southeast Coasts Basin by incorporating climatic projections from different GCMs and RCMs, as well as by using relevant projections of sea level and land use/cover. Comparative synthesis of the historical and future scenarios along with the results of sensitivity analysis can aid in efficient management of stormwater flooding for the southeast Florida coasts and similar urban centers under a changing regime of climate, sea level, land use/cover and hydrology.

Unveiling climate and ice-sheet history from drilling in high-latitude margins and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escutia Dotti, Carlota

2010-05-01

Polar ice is an important component of the climate system, affecting global sea level, ocean circulation and heat transport, marine productivity, and albedo. During the last decades drilling in the Arctic (IODP ACEX and Bering Expeditions) and in Antarctica (ODP Legs 178, 188, IODP Expedition 318 and ANDRILL) has revealed regional information about sea ice and ice sheets development and evolution. Integration of this data with numerical modeling provide an understanding of the early development of the ice sheets and their variability through the Cenozoic. Much of this work points to atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases concentrations as important triggering mechanism driving the onset of glaciation and subsequent ice volume variability. With current increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations resulting in rapidly rising global temperatures, studies of polar climates become increasingly prominent on the research agenda. Despite of the relevance of the high-latitudes in the global climate systems, the short- and long-term history of the ice sheets and sea-ice and its relationships with paleoclimatic, paleoceanographic, and sea level changes is still poorly understood. A multinational, multiplatform scientific drilling strategy is being developed to recover key physical evidence from selected high-latitude areas. This strategy is aimed at addressing key knowledge gaps about the role of polar ice in climate change, targeting questions such as timing of events, rates of change, tipping points, regional variations, and northern vs. southern hemispheres (in phase or out-of-phase) variability. This data is critical to provide constrains to sea-ice and ice sheet models, which are the basis for forecasting the future of the cryosphere in a warming world.

Modeling sea-surface temperature and its variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarachik, E. S.

1985-01-01

A brief review is presented of the temporal scales of sea surface temperature variability. Progress in modeling sea surface temperature, and remaining obstacles to the understanding of the variability is discussed.

Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Furevik, T.; Zhou, T.

To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1-3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC yields a NAO-like pattern with intensified Icelandic low and Azores high, and a warming of 0.25-0.5 °C of the central North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST). The reanalysis forced simulations indicate a coupling between the Labrador Sea Water production rate and an equatorial Atlantic SST index in accordance with observations. This coupling is not identified in the coupled simulation.

Subseasonal to Seasonal Predictions of U.S. West Coast High Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khouakhi, A.; Villarini, G.; Zhang, W.; Slater, L. J.

2017-12-01

Extreme sea levels pose a significant threat to coastal communities, ecosystems, and assets, as they are conducive to coastal flooding, coastal erosion and inland salt-water intrusion. As sea levels continue to rise, these sea level extremes - including occasional minor coastal flooding experienced during high tide (nuisance floods) - are of concern. Extreme sea levels are increasing at many locations around the globe and have been attributed largely to rising mean sea levels associated with intra-seasonal to interannual climate processes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, intra-seasonal to seasonal probabilistic forecasts of high water levels are computed at the Toke Point tide gage station on the US west coast. We first identify the main climate drivers that are responsible for high water levels and examine their predictability using General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). These drivers are then used to develop a probabilistic framework for the seasonal forecasting of high water levels. We focus on the climate controls on the frequency of high water levels using the number of exceedances above the 99.5th percentile and above the nuisance flood level established by the National Weather Service. Our findings indicate good forecast skill at the shortest lead time, with the skill that decreases as we increase the lead time. In general, these models aptly capture the year-to-year variability in the observational records.

The distribution and utility of sea-level indicators in Eurasian sub-Arctic salt marshes (White Sea, Russia).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikitina, Daria; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin; Van, Christopher; Potapova, Marina; Culver, Stephen; Repkina, Tatyana; Hill, David

2017-04-01

We investigated the utility of foraminifera, diatoms and bulk-sediment geochemistry (δ13C and parameters measured by RockEval pyrolysis) as sea-level indicators in Eurasian sub-Arctic salt marshes. At three salt marshes in Dvina Bay (White Sea, Russia), we collected surface sediment samples along transects sequentially crossing sub-tidal, tidal-flat, salt-marsh and Taiga forest environments. Foraminifera formed bipartite assemblages, where elevations below mean high higher water (MHHW) were dominated by Miliammina spp. and elevations between MHHW and the highest occurrence of foraminifera were dominated by Jadammina macrescens and Balticammina pseudomacrescens. Both assemblages existed on all three transects and we conclude that foraminifera are sea-level indicators in Eurasian sub-Arctic salt marshes. Five, high-diversity groups of diatoms were identified and they displayed geographic variability among the study sites (<15 km apart). RockEval pyrolysis and δ13C measurements recognized two groups (clastic-dominated environments below MHHW and organic-rich environments above MHHW). Since one group included sub-tidal elevations and the other supra-tidal elevations, we conclude that the measured geochemical parameters do not meet the criteria for being stand-alone sea-level indicators. Core JT2012 captured a regressive sediment sequence of clastic, tidal-flat sediment overlain by salt-marsh organic silt and freshwater peat. The salt-marsh sediment accumulated at 2804 ± 52 years BP years before present and preserved foraminifera (J. macrescens and B. pseudomacrescens) with a high degree of analogy to modern assemblages indicating that relative sea level was 2.60 ± 0.47 m above present at this time. Diatoms confirm that marine influence decreased through time, but the lack of analogy between modern and core assemblages limits their utility as sea-level indicators in this setting.

Estimation of Atlantic-Mediterranean netflow variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerreiro, Catarina; Peliz, Alvaro; Miranda, Pedro

2016-04-01

The exchanges at the Strait of Gibraltar are extremely difficult to measure due to the strong temporal and across-strait variabilities; yet the Atlantic inflow into the Mediterranean is extremely important both for climate and to ecosystems. Most of the published numerical modeling studies do not resolve the Strait of Gibraltar realistically. Models that represent the strait at high resolution focus primarily in high frequency dynamics, whereas long-term dynamics are studied in low resolution model studies, and for that reason the Strait dynamics are poorly resolved. Estimating the variability of the exchanges requires long term and high-resolutions studies, thus an improved simulation with explicit and realistic representation of the Strait is necessary. On seasonal to inter-annual timescales the flow is essentially driven by the net evaporation contribution and consequently realistic fields of precipitation and evaporation are necessary for model setup. A comparison between observations, reanalysis and combined products shows ERA-Interim Reanalysis has the most suitable product for Mediterranean Sea. Its time and space variability are in close agreement with NOC 1.1 for the common period (1980 - 1993) and also with evaporation from OAFLUX (1989 - 2014). Subinertial fluctuations, periods from days to a few months, are the second most energetic, after tides, and are the response to atmospheric pressure fluctuations and local winds. Atmospheric pressure fluctuations in the Mediterranean cause sea level oscillations that induce a barotropic flow through the Strait. Candela's analytical model has been used to quantify this response in later studies, though comparison with observations points to an underestimation of the flow at strait. An improved representation of this term contribution to the Atlantic - Mediterranean exchange must be achieved on longer time-scales. We propose a new simulation for the last 36 years (1979 - 2014) for the Mediterranean - Atlantic domain with explicit representation of the Strait. The simulations are performed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and forced with the different contributions of the freshwater budget, sea level pressure fluctuations and winds from ERA-Interim Reanalysis. The model of sea level pressure induced barotropic fluctuations simulates the barotropic variability at the Strait of Gibraltar for the last decades.

Sea level and shoreline reconstructions for the Red Sea: isostatic and tectonic considerations and implications for hominin migration out of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambeck, Kurt; Purcell, Anthony; Flemming, Nicholas. C.; Vita-Finzi, Claudio; Alsharekh, Abdullah M.; Bailey, Geoffrey N.

2011-12-01

The history of sea level within the Red Sea basin impinges on several areas of research. For archaeology and prehistory, past sea levels of the southern sector define possible pathways of human dispersal out of Africa. For tectonics, the interglacial sea levels provide estimates of rates for vertical tectonics. For global sea level studies, the Red Sea sediments contain a significant record of changing water chemistry with implications on the mass exchange between oceans and ice sheets during glacial cycles. And, because of its geometry and location, the Red Sea provides a test laboratory for models of glacio-hydro-isostasy. The Red Sea margins contain incomplete records of sea level for the Late Holocene, for the Last Glacial Maximum, for the Last Interglacial and for earlier interglacials. These are usually interpreted in terms of tectonics and ocean volume changes but it is shown here that the glacio-hydro-isostatic process is an additional important component with characteristic spatial variability. Through an iterative analysis of the Holocene and interglacial evidence a separation of the tectonic, isostatic and eustatic contributions is possible and we present a predictive model for palaeo-shorelines and water depths for a time interval encompassing the period proposed for migrations of modern humans out of Africa. Principal conclusions include the following. (i) Late Holocene sea level signals evolve along the length of the Red Sea, with characteristic mid-Holocene highstands not developing in the central part. (ii) Last Interglacial sea level signals are also location dependent and, in the absence of tectonics, are not predicted to occur more than 1-2 m above present sea level. (iii) For both periods, Red Sea levels at 'expected far-field' elevations are not necessarily indicative of tectonic stability and the evidence points to a long-wavelength tectonic uplift component along both the African and Arabian northern and central sides of the Red Sea. (iv) The observational evidence is consistent with tectonic and isostatic processes both operating over the past 300,000 years without requiring changes in the time averaged (over a few thousand years) tectonic rates. (v) Recent bathymetric data for the Bab al Mandab region have been compiled to confirm the location and depth of the sill controlling flow in and out of the Red Sea. Throughout the last 400,000 years the Red Sea has remained open to the Gulf of Aden with cross sectional areas at times of glacial maxima about 2% of that today. (vi) The minimum channel widths connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden at times of lowstand occur south of the Hanish Sill. The channels are less than 4 km wide and remain narrow for as long as local sea levels are below -50 m. This occurs for a number of sustained periods during the last two glacial cycles and earlier. (vii) Periods suitable for crossing between Africa and Arabia without requiring seaworthy boats or seafaring skills occurred periodically throughout the Pleistocene, particularly at times of favourable environmental climatic conditions that occurred during times of sea level lowstand.

Differential responses of seabirds to environmental variability over 2 years in the continental shelf and oceanic habitats of southeastern Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Takashi; Kokubun, Nobuo; Kikuchi, Dale M.; Sato, Nobuhiko; Takahashi, Akinori; Will, Alexis P.; Kitaysky, Alexander S.; Watanuki, Yutaka

2016-04-01

Seasonal sea-ice cover has been decreasing in the southeastern Bering Sea shelf, which might affect ecosystem dynamics and availability of food resources to marine top predators breeding in the region. In this study, we investigated the foraging responses of two seabird species, surface-foraging red-legged kittiwakes Rissa brevirostris (hereafter, RLKI) and pursuit-diving foraging thick-billed murres Uria lomvia (TBMU) to different marine environmental conditions over 2 years. At-sea distributions of RLKI and TBMU breeding on St. George Island, the largest seabird colony in the region, were recorded using GPS loggers, and blood samples were taken to examine their physiological condition and isotopic foraging niche in a given year. Between the study years, winter ice retreated earlier and summer water temperatures were relatively warmer in 2014 compared to those in 2013. RLKI foraging occurred mostly over the oceanic basin in both years. TBMU, however, foraged mostly over the shelf but showed a relatively higher use of the shelf break and oceanic basin in 2013. The foraging distances from the colony peaked at 250-300 km in 2013 and bimodally at 150-250 and 300-350 km in 2014 for RLKI and tended to be farther in 2013 compared to those in 2014 for TBMU. Plasma levels of corticosterone did not differ between the years in RLKI but differed in TBMU, showing higher levels of physiological stress incurred by murres in 2013, the year of relatively cooler sea surface temperatures with later sea-ice retreat. δ13N (a proxy of trophic level of prey) did not differ between the years in either RLKI or TBMU. These results suggest that the response of ecosystem dynamics to climate variability in the southeastern Bering Sea may differ between the ocean basin and continental shelf regions, which, in turn, may generate differential responses in seabirds relying on those habitats for foraging.

Risk factor analysis for sea lice, Caligus rogercresseyi, levels in farmed salmonids in southern Chile.

PubMed

Yatabe, T; Arriagada, G; Hamilton-West, C; Urcelay, S

2011-05-01

Sea lice, Caligus rogercresseyi, are ectoparasitic copepods, which severely affect the salmon farming industry in southern Chile, reducing the health status of fish and producing both direct and indirect economic losses. Local farmers have reported increasing infestation levels since 2004, reaching a peak in 2007. In response to this situation, the Chilean Fisheries Service (Sernapesca) developed a surveillance programme; the first step of which consisted of a general survey of salmon farms. This survey included documenting counts of parasite burdens on fish and measurements of several husbandry and environmental factors providing an evaluation of risk factors for the observed infestation levels. The information collected was analysed using a linear mixed model technique, which takes into account the clustered structure of data, decomposing the unexplained variation and assigning it to different aggregation levels of the productive system. Geographical zones, fish species, treatment against sea lice performed 1 month before sampling, stocking density, fish weight and water salinity were the variables significantly associated with sea lice burdens. In contrast, treatments performed 2-3 months before sampling, use of photoperiod in sea cages and water temperature, were not significant. There was significant unexplained variation at all aggregation levels, i.e. sub-zone, fish farm and cage level, with the fish farm level showing the greatest variation. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Seasonal southern hemisphere multi-variable reflection of the southern annular mode in atmosphere and ocean reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhaoru; Uotila, Petteri; Stössel, Achim; Vihma, Timo; Liu, Hailong; Zhong, Yisen

2018-02-01

Variations of southern hemisphere (SH) climate variables are often linked to the southern annular mode (SAM) variability. We examined such linkage by seasons using state-of-the-art atmosphere and ocean/sea-ice reanalyses. The associated SAM related anomaly (SRA) fields of the climate variables, denoting anomalies corresponding to the same variation in SAM, are overall consistent across the reanalyses. Among the atmospheric products, 20CRV2 differs from ERA-interim and CFSR in the sea-level pressure SRAs over the Amundsen Sea, resulting in less warming over the Antarctic Peninsula. Among the ocean reanalyses, ORAP5 and C-GLORS exhibit the largest consistency. The major difference between them and the lower-resolution CFSR and SODA reanalyses is deeper penetration of anomalous meridional currents. Compared to the other ocean reanalyses, CFSR exhibits stronger and spatially more coherent surface-current SRAs, resulting in greater SRAs of sea-ice motion and ice thickness along the ice edges. The SRAs of sensible and total surface heat fluxes are reduced in CFSR due to ocean-atmosphere coupling. Significant sea-ice concentration SRAs are present on the west side of peninsulas along the east Antarctica coast in spring and winter, most notably in ORAP5 and C-GLORS, implying changes in new-ice production and shelf-water formation. Most atmosphere and ocean variables manifest an annular SRA pattern in summer and a non-annular pattern in the other seasons, with a wavenumber-3 structure strongest in autumn and weakest in summer. The wavenumber-3 structure should be related to the zonal wave three pattern of the SH circulation, the relation of which to SAM needs further exploration.

Accommodation space, relative sea level, and the archiving of paleo-earthquakes along subduction zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelsey, Harvey M.; Engelhart, Simon E.; Pilarczyk, Jessica E.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Rubin, Charles; Daryono, Mudrik; Ismail, Nazli; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Cahill, Niamh

2015-01-01

The spatial variability of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) change influences the capacities of coastal environments to accommodate a sedimentary record of paleoenvironmental change. In this study we couch a specific investigation in more general terms in order to demonstrate the applicability of the relative sea-level history approach to paleoseismic investigations. Using subsidence stratigraphy, we trace the different modes of coastal sedimentation over the course of time in the eastern Indian Ocean where RSL change evolved from rapidly rising to static from 8000 yr ago to present. Initially, the coastal sites from the Aceh, Sumatra, coastal plain, which are subject to repeated great earthquakes and tsunamis, built up a sedimentary sequence in response to a RSL rise of 1.4 mm/yr. The sequence found at 2 sites 8 km apart contained 3 soils of a mangrove origin (Rhizophora,Bruguiera/Ceriops, Avicennia pollen, and/or intertidal foraminifera) buried by sudden submergence related to coseismic subsidence and 6 tsunami sands that contain pristine subtidal and planktic foraminifera. After 3800 cal yr B.P. (years before A.D. 1950), sea level stabilized and remained such to the present. The stable relative sea level reduced accommodation space in the late Holocene, suggesting that the continued aggradation of the coastal plain was a consequence of periodic coastal inundation by tsunamis.

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masina, Simona; Storto, Andrea; Ferry, Nicolas; Valdivieso, Maria; Haines, Keith; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Zuo, Hao; Drevillon, Marie; Parent, Laurent

2017-08-01

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993-2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state.

Morphometric variability of Arctodiaptomus salinus (Copepoda) in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region.

PubMed

Anufriieva, Elena V; Shadrin, Nickolai V

2015-11-18

Inter-species variability in morphological traits creates a need to know the range of variability of characteristics in the species for taxonomic and ecological tasks. Copepoda Arctodiaptomus salinus, which inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa, plays a dominant role in plankton of different water bodies-from fresh to hypersaline. This work assesses the intra- and inter-population morphometric variability of A. salinus in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region and discusses some observed regularities. The variability of linear body parameters and proportions was studied. The impacts of salinity, temperature, and population density on morphological characteristics and their variability can manifest themselves in different ways at the intra- and inter-population levels. A significant effect of salinity, pH and temperature on the body proportions was not found. Their intra-population variability is dependent on temperature and salinity. Sexual dimorphism of A. salinus manifests in different linear parameters, proportions, and their variability. There were no effects of temperature, pH and salinity on the female/male parameter ratio. There were significant differences in the body proportions of males and females in different populations. The influence of temperature, salinity, and population density can be attributed to 80%-90% of intra-population variability of A. salinus. However, these factors can explain less than 40% of inter-population differences. Significant differences in the body proportions of males and females from different populations may suggest that some local populations of A. salinus in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region are in the initial stages of differentiation.

Modeling of local sea level rise and its future projection under climate change using regional information through EOF analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naren, A.; Maity, Rajib

2017-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the manifestations of climate change and may cause a threat to the coastal regions. Estimates from global circulation models (GCMs) are either not available on coastal locations due to their coarse spatial resolution or not reliable since the mismatch between (interpolated) GCM estimates at coastal locations and actual observation over historical period is significantly different. We propose a semi-empirical framework to model the local sea level rise (SLR) using the possibly existing relationship between local SLR and regional atmospheric/oceanic variables. Selection of set of input variables mostly based on the literature bears the signature of both atmospheric and oceanic variables that possibly have an effect on SLR. The proposed approach offers a method to extract the combined information hidden in the regional fields of atmospheric/oceanic variables for a specific target coastal location. Generality of the approach ensures the inclusion of more variables in the set of inputs depending on the geographical location of any coastal station. For demonstration, 14 coastal locations along the Indian coast and islands are considered and a set of regional atmospheric and oceanic variables are considered. After development and validation of the model at each coastal location with the historical data, the model is further used for future projection of local SLR up to the year 2100 for three different future emission scenarios represented by representative concentration pathways (RCPs)—RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The maximum projected SLR is found to vary from 260.65 to 393.16 mm (RCP8.5) by the end of 2100 among the locations considered. Outcome of the proposed approach is expected to be useful in regional coastal management and in developing mitigation strategies in a changing climate.

Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Historical and Late Holocene Rates of Sea-Level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

2014-05-01

A fundamental concern associated with climate change is the rate at which sea levels are rising. Studies of past sea level (particularly beyond the instrumental data range) allow modern sea-level rise to be placed in a more complete context. Considering this, we perform a Bayesian statistical analysis on historical and late Holocene rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to the statistical model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. The aims are to estimate rates of sea-level rise, to determine when modern rates of sea-level rise began and to observe how these rates have been changing over time. Many of the current methods for doing this use simple linear regression to estimate rates. This is often inappropriate as it is too rigid and it can ignore uncertainties that arise as part of the data collection exercise. This can lead to over confidence in the sea-level trends being characterized. The proposed Bayesian model places a Gaussian process prior on the rate process (i.e. the process that determines how rates of sea-level are changing over time). The likelihood of the observed data is the integral of this process. When dealing with proxy reconstructions, this is set in an errors-in-variables framework so as to take account of age uncertainty. It is also necessary, in this case, for the model to account for glacio-isostatic adjustment, which introduces a covariance between individual age and sea-level observations. This method provides a flexible fit and it allows for the direct estimation of the rate process with full consideration of all sources of uncertainty. Analysis of tide-gauge datasets and proxy reconstructions in this way means that changing rates of sea level can be estimated more comprehensively and accurately than previously possible. The model captures the continuous and dynamic evolution of sea-level change and results show that not only are modern sea levels rising but that the rates of rise are continuously increasing. Analysis of the a global tide-gauge record (Church and White, 2011) indicated that the rate of sea-level rise increased continuously since 1880AD and is currently 2.57mm/yr (95% credible interval of 1.71 to 4.35mm/yr). Application of the model a proxy reconstruction from North Carolina (Kemp et al., 2011) indicated that the mean rate of rise in this locality since the middle of the 19th century (current rate of 2.66 mm/yr with a 95% credible interval of 1.29 to 4.59mm/yr) is in agreement with results from the tide gauge analysis and is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years.

Sea level variability at the coast: is it dominated by waves even at interdecadal time scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melet, Angelique; Almar, Rafael; Meyssignac, Benoit

2017-04-01

Tide gauge records and satellite altimetry indicate that global mean sea level has risen by 16±3 cm during the 20th century. This rise is essentially due to thermal expansion of the ocean and land ice loss from glaciers and ice sheets in response to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. It is projected to continue over the 21st century and raise concerns for coastal regions. But coastal sea level variations are influenced by other processes such as tides, atmospheric surges and wave induced run-up and set-up. Here we examine the relative importance of the processes causing sea level variations at the coast over the last 23 years from observational datasets and model reanalyses focusing on coastal sites distributed along the world's coastlines for which tide gauges records are available. We show that the long term wave signal can dampen or enhance the effect of the ocean thermal expansion and land ice loss at the coast, over all time scales from subannnual to multidecadal. We estimate that the effect of waves generally explains 60%±20% of the coastal sea level variations at interannual to multidecadal time scales. In the Eastern Pacific, the wave effect dominates the total budget and counterbalances the thermal expansion of the ocean and land ice loss signals. These results highlight that the wave effect has to be taken into account in sea level predictions and projections.

Impact of Arctic shelf summer stratification on Holocene climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibodeau, Benoit; Bauch, Henning A.; Knies, Jochen

2018-07-01

Understanding the dynamic of freshwater and sea-ice export from the Arctic is crucial to better comprehend the potential near-future climate change consequences. Here, we report nitrogen isotope data of a core from the Laptev Sea to shed light on the impact of the Holocene Siberian transgression on the summer stratification of the Laptev Sea. Our data suggest that the oceanographic setting was less favourable to sea-ice formation in the Laptev Sea during the early to mid-Holocene. It is only after the sea level reached a standstill at around 4 ka that the water column structure in the Laptev Sea became more stable. Modern-day conditions, often described as "sea-ice factory", were reached about 2 ka ago, after the development of a strong summer stratification. These results are consistent with sea-ice reconstruction along the Transpolar Drift, highlighting the potential contribution of the Laptev Sea to the export of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean.

The timing of Mediterranean sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level and African monsoon changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, K. M.; Grimm, R.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Marino, G.; Ziegler, M.; Rohling, E. J.

2016-05-01

The Mediterranean basin is sensitive to global sea-level changes and African monsoon variability on orbital timescales. Both of these processes are thought to be important to the deposition of organic-rich sediment layers or 'sapropels' throughout the eastern Mediterranean, yet their relative influences remain ambiguous. A related issue is that an assumed 3-kyr lag between boreal insolation maxima and sapropel mid-points remains to be tested. Here we present new geochemical and ice-volume-corrected planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope records for sapropels S1 (Holocene), S3, S4, and S5 (Marine Isotope Stage 5) in core LC21 from the southern Aegean Sea. The records have a radiometrically constrained chronology that has already been synchronised with the Red Sea relative sea-level record, and this allows detailed examination of the timing of sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level, and African monsoon changes. We find that sapropel onset was near-synchronous with monsoon run-off into the eastern Mediterranean, but that insolation-sapropel/monsoon phasings were not systematic through the last glacial cycle. These latter phasings instead appear to relate to sea-level changes. We propose that persistent meltwater discharges into the North Atlantic (e.g., at glacial terminations) modified the timing of sapropel deposition by delaying the timing of peak African monsoon run-off. These observations may reconcile apparent model-data offsets with respect to the orbital pacing of the African monsoon. Our observations also imply that the previous assumption of a systematic 3-kyr lag between insolation maxima and sapropel midpoints may lead to overestimated insolation-sapropel phasings. Finally, we surmise that both sea-level rise and monsoon run-off contributed to surface-water buoyancy changes at times of sapropel deposition, and their relative influences differed per sapropel case, depending on their magnitudes. Sea-level rise was clearly important for sapropel S1, whereas monsoon forcing was more important for sapropels S3, S4, and S5.

Residual circulation and suspended sediment transport in the Dutch Wadden Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duran-Matute, Matias; Sassi, Maximiliano; de Boer, Gerben; Grawë, Ulf; Gerkema, Theo; van Kessel, Thijs; Cronin, Katherine

2014-05-01

The Dutch Wadden Sea (DWS), situated between continental Europe and the Dutch Wadden Islands, is a semi enclosed basin connected to the North Sea by a series of tidal inlets and composed mainly of tidal flats and sea gullies. The DWS is of high ecological importance due to its biodiversity and has been declared a World Heritage site by UNESCO. It is a dynamic area subject to regional relative sea level rise due to global sea level rise, postglacial rebound and gas exploitation. For intertidal areas to continue to serve as feeding ground for migratory birds, a net import of sediment is required. Observations are crucial but provide only scarce information in space and time. Hence, to estimate the net influx of suspended sediment into the DWS, realistic high resolution three-dimensional numerical simulations have been carried out using the General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM). The hydrodynamics are mainly governed by the tides, the fresh water discharge from several sluices into the DWS and wind variability. It is expected that the transport of suspended particulate matter (SPM) is governed by the same factors, too, in combination with sediment sink and source terms. For validation, the results are compared against different observational data sets, such as tidal gauges, temperature and salinity at a fixed station, and the volumetric flux rate through one of the inlets obtained from an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) attached to a ferry. SPM transport is modeled for four different sediment classes each of which is defined by the critical shear stress and the settling velocity. Results show a clear net import of SPM through one of the inlets, which is in agreement with the observations. First estimates of the total sediment fluxes through the different inlets are presented together with an analysis on their variability and sensibility to the external forcing. Of particular importance is the net export of SPM during storms as well as the role of storms on sub-tidal variability.

Distribution of sea anemones (Cnidaria, Actiniaria) in Korea analyzed by environmental clustering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cha, H.-R.; Buddemeier, R.W.; Fautin, D.G.; Sandhei, P.

2004-01-01

Using environmental data and the geospatial clustering tools LOICZView and DISCO, we empirically tested the postulated existence and boundaries of four biogeographic regions in the southern part of the Korean peninsula. Environmental variables used included wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, tidal amplitude, and the chlorophyll spectral signal. Our analysis confirmed the existence of four biogeographic regions, but the details of the borders between them differ from those previously postulated. Specimen-level distribution records of intertidal sea anemones were mapped; their distribution relative to the environmental data supported the importance of the environmental parameters we selected in defining suitable habitats. From the geographic coincidence between anemone distribution and the clusters based on environmental variables, we infer that geospatial clustering has the power to delimit ranges for marine organisms within relatively small geographical areas.

Combining urbanization and hydrodynamics data to evaluate sea level rise impacts on coastal water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, C. R.; Martin, J. B.

2016-02-01

Assessments of the potential for salt water intrusion due to sea level rise require consideration of both coastal hydrodynamic and human activity thresholds. In siliciclastic systems, sea level rise may cause salt intrusion to coastal aquifers at annual or decadal scales, whereas in karst systems salt intrudes at the tidal scalse. In both cases, human activity impacts the freshwater portion of the system by altering the water demand on the aquifer. We combine physicochemical and human activity data to evaluate impact of sea level rise on salt intrusion to siliclastic (Indian River Lagoon, Fl, USA) and karst (Puerto Morelos, Yucatan, Mexico) systems under different sea level rise rate scenarios. Two hydrodynamic modeling scenarios are considered; flux controlled and head controlled. Under a flux controlled system hydraulic head gradients remain constant during sea level rise while under a head controlled system hydraulic graidents diminish, allowing saltwater intrusion. Our model contains three key terms; aquifer recharge, groundwater discharge and hydraulic conductivity. Groundwater discharge and hydraulic conductivity were calculated based on high frequency (karst system) and decadal (siliciclastic system) field measurements. Aquifer recharge is defined as precipitation less evapotranspiration and water demand was evaluated based on urban planning data that provided the regional water demand. Water demand includes agricultural area, toursim, traffic patterns, garbage collection and total population. Water demand was initially estimated using a partial leaset squares regression based on these variables. Our model indicates that water demand depends most on agricultural area, which has changed significantly over the last 30 years. In both systems, additional water demand creates a head controlled scenario, thus increaseing the protential fo salt intrusion with projected sea level rise.

Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie

Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of themore » inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.« less

Coupling landscapes to solid-Earth deformation over the ice-age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pico, T.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Ferrier, K.; Braun, J.

2016-12-01

We present initial results of a coupled ice-age sea level - landscape evolution code. Deformation of the solid Earth in response to the growth and ablation of continental ice sheets produces spatially-variable patterns of sea-level change. Recent modeling has considered the impact of sedimentation and erosion on sea level predictions across the last glacial cycle, but these studies have imposed, a-priori, a record of sediment flux and erosion, rather than computing them from a physics-based model of landscape evolution in the presence of sea-level (topography) changes. These topography changes range from 1-10 m/kyr in the near and intermediate field of the Late Pleistocene ice cover, and are thus comparable to (or exceed) tectonic rates in such regions. Our simulations aim to address the following question: how does solid-Earth deformation influence the evolution of landscapes over glacial periods? To address this issue, we couple a highly-efficient landscape evolution code, Fastscape (Braun & Willett, 2013), to a global, gravitationally-self consistent sea-level theory. Fastscape adopts standard geomorphic laws governing incision and marine deposition, and the sea-level model is based on the canonical work of Farrell & Clark (1976), with extensions to include the effects of rotation and time varying shoreline geometries (Kendall et al., 2005), and sediment erosion and deposition (Dalca et al, 2013). We will present global results and focus on a few regional case studies where deposition rates from a dataset of sedimentary cores can be used as a check on the simulations. These predictions quantify the influence of sea-level change (including that associated with sedimentation and erosion) on geomorphic drivers of landscape evolution, and in turn, the solid Earth deformation caused by these surface processes over an ice age.

Quaternary sea level high-stand deposits of the southeast U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain: Age, distribution, and implications.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poirier, R. K.; Cronin, T. M.; Ghaleb, B.; Portell, R.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; Wehmiller, J. F.; Thompson, W. G.; Oches, E. A.; Willard, D. A.; Katz, M. E.

2015-12-01

Emerged Quaternary paleo-shorelines and marine deposits provide a more direct way to reconstruct and analyze sea-level variability than methods using oxygen isotope analyses of deep ocean benthic foraminifera. New Uranium-series dates on fossil corals (primarily Astrangia spp. and Septastrea spp.) combined with previously published dates have allowed us to constrain the age, elevation, and geographical distribution of marine sediments deposited in the United States Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) from Virginia to Florida during periods of past high relative sea level (SL). We present new dates from deposits (VA/NC: Tabb/Norfolk, Nassawadox, & Omar Formations; SC: Wando, Socastee, & Canepatch Formations; FL: Anastasia, Ft. Thompson, & Bermont Formations) representing interglacial high-stands during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5, 7, 9, and 11. In addition, we incorporate stratigraphic, marine micropaleontologic, and palynologic records with our SL chronology to reconstruct a more complete history of middle-to-late Pleistocene interglacial climates of the ACP. Ultimately, these results will test modeled sea-level fingerprint studies based on various melting scenarios of the Greenland and/or Antarctic ice sheets.

Eddy energy sources and mesoscale eddies in the Sea of Okhotsk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanov, Dmitry V.; Diansky, Nikolay A.; Fomin, Vladimir V.

2018-05-01

Based on eddy-permitting ocean circulation model outputs, the mesoscale variability is studied in the Sea of Okhotsk. We confirmed that the simulated circulation reproduces the main features of the general circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk. In particular, it reproduced a complex structure of the East-Sakhalin current and the pronounced seasonal variability of this current. We established that the maximum of mean kinetic energy was associated with the East-Sakhalin Current. In order to uncover causes and mechanisms of the mesoscale variability, we studied the budget of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Sea of Okhotsk. Spatial distribution of the EKE showed that intensive mesoscale variability occurs along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk, where the East-Sakhalin Current extends. We revealed a pronounced seasonal variability of EKE with its maximum intensity in winter and its minimum intensity in summer. Analysis of EKE sources and rates of energy conversion revealed a leading role of time-varying (turbulent) wind stress in the generation of mesoscale variability along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk in winter and spring. We established that a contribution of baroclinic instability predominates over that of barotropic instability in the generation of mesoscale variability along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk. To demonstrate the mechanism of baroclinic instability, the simulated circulation was considered along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk from January to April 2005. In April, the mesoscale anticyclonic eddies are observed along the western boundary of the Sea of Okhotsk. The role of the sea ice cover in the intensification of the mesoscale variability in the Sea of Okhotsk was discussed.

Prediction of dissolved oxygen in the Mediterranean Sea along Gaza, Palestine - an artificial neural network approach.

PubMed

Zaqoot, Hossam Adel; Ansari, Abdul Khalique; Unar, Mukhtiar Ali; Khan, Shaukat Hyat

2009-01-01

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are flexible tools which are being used increasingly to predict and forecast water resources variables. The human activities in areas surrounding enclosed and semi-enclosed seas such as the Mediterranean Sea always produce in the long term a strong environmental impact in the form of coastal and marine degradation. The presence of dissolved oxygen is essential for the survival of most organisms in the water bodies. This paper is concerned with the use of ANNs - Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function neural networks for predicting the next fortnight's dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea water along Gaza. MLP and Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural networks are trained and developed with reference to five important oceanographic variables including water temperature, wind velocity, turbidity, pH and conductivity. These variables are considered as inputs of the network. The data sets used in this study consist of four years and collected from nine locations along Gaza coast. The network performance has been tested with different data sets and the results show satisfactory performance. Prediction results prove that neural network approach has good adaptability and extensive applicability for modelling the dissolved oxygen in the Mediterranean Sea along Gaza. We hope that the established model will help in assisting the local authorities in developing plans and policies to reduce the pollution along Gaza coastal waters to acceptable levels.

Evaluation of the Navys Sea/Shore Flow Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

Std. Z39.18 i Abstract CNA developed an independent Discrete -Event Simulation model to evaluate and assess the effect of...a more steady manning level, but the variability remains, even if the system is optimized. In building a Discrete -Event Simulation model, we...steady-state model. In FY 2014, CNA developed a Discrete -Event Simulation model to evaluate the impact of sea/shore flow policy (the DES-SSF model

Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deser, C.; Walsh, J.E.; Timlin, M.S.

Sea ice is a sensitive component of the climate system, influenced by conditions in both the atmosphere and ocean. Variations in sea ice may in turn modulate climate by altering the surface albedo; the exchange of heat, moisture, and momentum between the atmosphere and ocean; and the upper ocean stratification in areas of deep water formation. The surface albedo effect is considered to be one of the dominant factors in the poleward amplification of global warming due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations simulated in many climate models. Forty years (1958--97) of reanalysis products and corresponding sea ice concentration data aremore » used to document Arctic sea ice variability and its association with surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) throughout the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The dominant mode of winter (January-March) sea ice variability exhibits out-of-phase fluctuations between the western and eastern North Atlantic, together with a weaker dipole in the North Pacific. The time series of this mode has a high winter-to-winter autocorrelation (0.69) and is dominated by decadal-scale variations and a longer-term trend of diminishing ice cover east of Greenland and increasing ice cover west of Greenland. Associated with the dominant pattern of winter sea ice variability are large-scale changes in SAT and SLP that closely resemble the North Atlantic oscillation. The associated SAT and surface sensible and latent heat flux anomalies are largest over the portions of the marginal sea ice zone in which the trends of ice coverage have been greatest, although the well-documented warming of the northern continental regions is also apparent. the temporal and spatial relationships between the SLP and ice anomaly fields are consistent with the notion that atmospheric circulation anomalies force the sea ice variations. However, there appears to be a local response of the atmospheric circulation to the changing sea ice variations. However, there appears to be a local response of the atmospheric circulation to the changing sea ice cover east of Greenland. Specifically, cyclone frequencies have increased and mean SLPs have decreased over the retracted ice margin in the Greenland Sea, and these changes differ from those associated directly with the North Atlantic oscillation. The dominant mode of sea ice variability in summer (July-September) is more spatially uniform than that in winter. Summer ice extent for the Arctic as a whole has exhibited a nearly monotonic decline (-4% decade{sup {minus}1}) during the past 40 yr. Summer sea ice variations appear to be initiated by atmospheric circulation anomalies over the high Arctic in late spring. Positive ice-albedo feedback may account for the relatively long delay (2--3 months) between the time of atmospheric forcing and the maximum ice response, and it may have served to amplify the summer ice retreat.« less

Downscaling of sea level and fluxes in the Malacca and Singapore Straits using A2 scenario projections of AR4 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkalich, Pavel; Koshebutsky, Volodymyr; Maderich, Vladimir; Thompson, Bijoy

2013-04-01

IPCC-coordinated work has been completed within Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to project climate and ocean variables for the 21st century using coupled atmospheric-ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs). Resolution of the GCMs is not sufficient to resolve local features of narrow Malacca and Singapore Straits, having complex coastal line and bathymetry; therefore, dynamical downscaling of ocean variables from the global grid to the regional scale is advisable using ocean models, such as Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). ROMS is customized for the domain centered on the Singapore and Malacca Straits, extending from 98°E to 109°E and 6°S to 14°N. Following IPCC methodology, the modelling is done for the past reference period 1961-1990, and then for the 21st century projections; subsequently, established past and projected trends and variability of ocean parameters are inter-compared. Boundary conditions for the past reference period are extracted from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), while the projections are made using A2 scenario runs of ECHAM5 and CCSM3 GCMs. Atmospheric forcing for ROMS is downscaled with WRF using ERA-40 dataset for the past period, and outputs of atmospheric variables of respective GCMs for the projections. ROMS-downscaled regional sea level change during 1961-1990, corrected for the global thermosteric effect, land-ice melting and Global Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) effect, corresponds to a mean total trend of 1.52 mm/year, which is higher than the global estimate 1.25 mm/year and observed global sea-level rise (1.44 mm/year) for the same period. Local linear trend in the Singapore Strait (0.9 mm/year) corresponds to the observed trend at Victoria Dock tide gauge (1.1 mm/year) for the past period. Mean discharges through the Karimata, Malacca and Singapore Straits are 0.9, 0.21 and 0.12 Sv, respectively, fall in the range of observations and recent model estimates. A2 scenario projections using ROMS-ECHAM5 and ROMS-CCSM3 for 2011-2099 suggest that linear trends of sea level rise in Singapore Strait are 5.4 and 6.1 mm/year, respectively. These values fall in the range of global estimates of 3.0-8.5 mm/year. Mean sea level rise is expected around 0.43 m (ROMS-ECHAM5) and 0.47 m (ROMS-CCSM3) in 2099 relative to mean sea level in 2011. These values are greater than median estimation of global sea rise 0.32 under scenario A2. Mean discharge through Singapore Strait for scenario A2 during 2011 to 2099 is projected to be 0.062 Sv for ROMS-ECHAM5 and 0.11 Sv for ROMS-CCSM3. These projections are comparable to the discharges during 1961-1990 (0.065 and 0.11 Sv, respectively). The linear trend in discharges for the period 2011-2099 is relatively small with statistical confidence level being less than 95%. An important feature computationally discovered is the transient reversal of flow in the Singapore Strait during southwest monsoon. In general, the reversals of flow in ROMS-ECHAM5 and ROMS-CCSM3 are observed respectively to occur 1/3 and 1/5 of the whole period.

The role of surface and subsurface processes in keeping pace with sea level rise in intertidal wetlands of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Bennion, Vicki; Grinham, Alistair; Cahoon, Donald R.

2011-01-01

Increases in the elevation of the soil surfaces of mangroves and salt marshes are key to the maintenance of these habitats with accelerating sea level rise. Understanding the processes that give rise to increases in soil surface elevation provides science for management of landscapes for sustainable coastal wetlands. Here, we tested whether the soil surface elevation of mangroves and salt marshes in Moreton Bay is keeping up with local rates of sea level rise (2.358 mm y-1) and whether accretion on the soil surface was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise. We found variability in surface elevation gains, with sandy areas in the eastern bay having the highest surface elevation gains in both mangrove and salt marsh (5.9 and 1.9 mm y-1) whereas in the muddier western bay rates of surface elevation gain were lower (1.4 and -0.3 mm y-1 in mangrove and salt marsh, respectively). Both sides of the bay had similar rates of surface accretion (~7–9 mm y-1 in the mangrove and 1–3 mm y-1 in the salt marsh), but mangrove soils in the western bay were subsiding at a rate of approximately 8 mm y-1, possibly due to compaction of organic sediments. Over the study surface elevation increments were sensitive to position in the intertidal zone (higher when lower in the intertidal) and also to variation in mean sea level (higher at high sea level). Although surface accretion was the most important process for keeping up with sea level rise in the eastern bay, subsidence largely negated gains made through surface accretion in the western bay indicating a high vulnerability to sea level rise in these forests.

Determining the response of sea level to atmospheric pressure forcing using TOPEX/POSEIDON data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Pihos, Greg

1994-01-01

The static response of sea level to the forcing of atmospheric pressure, the so-called inverted barometer (IB) effect, is investigated using TOPEX/POSEIDON data. This response, characterized by the rise and fall of sea level to compensate for the change of atmospheric pressure at a rate of -1 cm/mbar, is not associated with any ocean currents and hence is normally treated as an error to be removed from sea level observation. Linear regression and spectral transfer function analyses are applied to sea level and pressure to examine the validity of the IB effect. In regions outside the tropics, the regression coefficient is found to be consistently close to the theoretical value except for the regions of western boundary currents, where the mesoscale variability interferes with the IB effect. The spectral transfer function shows near IB response at periods of 30 degrees is -0.84 +/- 0.29 cm/mbar (1 standard deviation). The deviation from = 1 cm /mbar is shown to be caused primarily by the effect of wind forcing on sea level, based on multivariate linear regression model involving both pressure and wind forcing. The regression coefficient for pressure resulting from the multivariate analysis is -0.96 +/- 0.32 cm/mbar. In the tropics the multivariate analysis fails because sea level in the tropics is primarily responding to remote wind forcing. However, after removing from the data the wind-forced sea level estimated by a dynamic model of the tropical Pacific, the pressure regression coefficient improves from -1.22 +/- 0.69 cm/mbar to -0.99 +/- 0.46 cm/mbar, clearly revealing an IB response. The result of the study suggests that with a proper removal of the effect of wind forcing the IB effect is valid in most of the open ocean at periods longer than 20 days and spatial scales larger than 500 km.

Relative sea-level change in the central Cyclades (Greece) since the Early Bronze Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Draganits, E.

2012-04-01

The Aegean is a focus of important cultural achievements in Europe since the Neolithic period. The resulting abundance of archaeological remains, many of them below sea-level represent an advantageous area for the study of local relative sea-level change. We have carried out detailed mapping of Despotiko Island (SW of Antiparos) and its surrounding. Despotiko is situated almost exactly in the center of the Cyclades (as defined nowadays), more so than Delos, and therefore is very well suited for sea-level studies of the Cyclades. This beneficial location, combined with a spacious and protected bay, additionally may explain its former importance as stepping-stone in the Aegean Sea. The island is uninhabited at present, but Early Bronze Age settlement sites and graveyards as well as a large Archaic sanctuary proof its former importance. The sanctuary is situated on a gently northeast dipping slope in the northeast part of Despotiko, in range of sight of the Órmos Despotiko. Since 1997 large parts of this important sanctuary have been excavated during several excavation campaigns. Tectonically, Despotiko, Antiparos and Paros, belong to the Attic-Cycladic Crystalline of the Central Hellenides, a stack of metamorphic tectonic nappes, mainly comprising variable types of gneiss, schist, marble and amphibolite, and tectonic slices of unmetamorphosed sediments on top, separated by low-angle normal faults from the metamorphic units below. Submerged archaeological structures at the sea bottom of the Órmos Despotiko, a Classical marble inscription from the sanctuary and partly submerged agriculture trenches at the east coast Despotiko, indicate that the relative sea-level in this area was some 3 m lower during the Early Bronze Age and still more than 1 m lower during Classical time. These values of relative sea-level rise indicate a subsidence component additional to the global sea-level rise in the investigated time period. Neglecting possible vertical tectonic movements and by means of the present sea floor bathymetric configuration the sea level reconstruction would imply the existence of an isthmus between Despotiko, Kimitiri and Antiparos linking the islands at least until Classical time. The existence of an isthmus would not only have altered the communication paths between the two islands, but Despotiko Bay would also have been even better protected from northwest winds than at present. The sea-level values from Despotiko are compared with other recent sea-level reconstructions on other islands of the Cyclades.

Effect of altitude on spirometric parameters and the performance of peak flow meters.

PubMed Central

Pollard, A. J.; Mason, N. P.; Barry, P. W.; Pollard, R. C.; Collier, D. J.; Fraser, R. S.; Miller, M. R.; Milledge, J. S.

1996-01-01

BACKGROUND: Portable peak flow meters are used in clinical practice for measurement of peak expiratory flow (PEF) at many different altitudes throughout the world. Some PEF meters are affected by gas density. This study was undertaken to establish which type of meter is best for use above sea level and to determine changes in spirometric measurements at altitude. METHODS: The variable orifice mini-Wright peak flow meter was compared with the fixed orifice Micro Medical Microplus turbine microspirometer at sea level and at Everest Base Camp (5300 m). Fifty one members of the 1994 British Mount Everest Medical Expedition were studied (age range, 19-55). RESULTS: Mean forced vital capacity (FVC) fell by 5% and PEF rose by 25.5%. However, PEF recorded with the mini-Wright peak flow meter underestimated PEF by 31%, giving readings 6.6% below sea level values. FVC was lowest in the mornings and did not improve significantly with acclimatisation. Lower PEF values were observed on morning readings and were associated with higher acute mountain sickness scores, although the latter may reflect decreased effort in those with acute mountain sickness. There was no change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) at altitude when measured with the turbine microspirometer. CONCLUSIONS: The cause of the fall in FVC at 5300 m is unknown but may be attributed to changes in lung blood volume, interstitial lung oedema, or early airways closure. Variable orifice peak flow meters grossly underestimate PEF at altitude and fixed orifice devices are therefore preferable where accurate PEF measurements are required above sea level. PMID:8711651

Decadal trends in deep ocean salinity and regional effects on steric sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purkey, S. G.; Llovel, W.

2017-12-01

We present deep (below 2000 m) and abyssal (below 4000 m) global ocean salinity trends from the 1990s through the 2010s and assess the role of deep salinity in local and global sea level budgets. Deep salinity trends are assessed using all deep basins with available full-depth, high-quality hydrographic section data that have been occupied two or more times since the 1980s through either the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Hydrographic Program or the Global Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP). All salinity data is calibrated to standard seawater and any intercruise offsets applied. While the global mean deep halosteric contribution to sea level rise is close to zero (-0.017 +/- 0.023 mm/yr below 4000 m), there is a large regional variability with the southern deep basins becoming fresher and northern deep basins becoming more saline. This meridional gradient in the deep salinity trend reflects different mechanisms driving the deep salinity variability. The deep Southern Ocean is freshening owing to a recent increased flux of freshwater to the deep ocean. Outside of the Southern Ocean, the deep salinity and temperature changes are tied to isopycnal heave associated with a falling of deep isopycnals in recent decades. Therefore, regions of the ocean with a deep salinity minimum are experiencing both a halosteric contraction with a thermosteric expansion. While the thermosteric expansion is larger in most cases, in some regions the halosteric compensates for as much as 50% of the deep thermal expansion, making a significant contribution to local sea level rise budgets.

Interannual and intra-annual variability of rainfall in Haiti (1905-2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moron, Vincent; Frelat, Romain; Jean-Jeune, Pierre Karly; Gaucherel, Cédric

2015-08-01

The interannual variability of annual and monthly rainfall in Haiti is examined from a database of 78 rain gauges in 1905-2005. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall is rather low, which is partly due to Haiti's rugged landscape, complex shoreline, and surrounding warm waters (mean sea surface temperatures >27 °C from May to December). The interannual variation of monthly rainfall is mostly shaped by the intensity of the low-level winds across the Caribbean Sea, leading to a drier- (or wetter-) than-average rainy season associated with easterly (or westerly) anomalies, increasing (or decreasing) winds. The varying speed of low-level easterlies across the Caribbean basin may reflect at least four different processes during the year: (1) an anomalous trough/ridge over the western edge of the Azores high from December to February, peaking in January; (2) a zonal pressure gradient between Eastern Pacific and the tropical Northern Atlantic from May/June to September, with a peak in August (i.e. lower-than-average rainfall in Haiti is associated with positive sea level pressure anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic and negative sea level pressure anomalies over the Eastern Pacific); (3) a local ocean-atmosphere coupling between the speed of the Caribbean Low Level Jet and the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the Caribbean basin (i.e. colder-than-average SST in the southern Caribbean sea is associated with increased easterlies and below-average rainfall in Haiti). This coupling is triggered when the warmest Caribbean waters move northward toward the Gulf of Mexico; (4) in October/November, a drier- (or wetter-) than-usual rainy season is related to an almost closed anticyclonic (or cyclonic) anomaly located ENE of Haiti on the SW edge of the Azores high. This suggests a main control of the interannual variations of rainfall by intensity, track and/or recurrence of tropical depressions traveling northeast of Haiti. During this period, the teleconnection of Haitian rainfall with synchronous Atlantic and Eastern Pacific SST is at a minimum.

A High-Resolution Reconstruction of Late-Holocene Relative Sea Level in Rhode Island, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stearns, R. B.; Engelhart, S. E.; Kemp, A.; Cahill, N.; Halavik, B. T.; Corbett, D. R.; Brain, M.; Hill, T. D.

2017-12-01

Studies on the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts have utilized salt-marsh peats and the macro- and microfossils preserved within them to reconstruct high-resolution records of relative sea level (RSL). We followed this approach to investigate spatial and temporal RSL variability in southern New England, USA, by reconstructing 3,300 years of RSL change in lower Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island. After reconnaisance of lower Narragansett Bay salt marshes, we recovered a 3.4m core at Fox Hill Marsh on Conanicut Island. We enumerated foraminiferal assemblages at 3cm intervals throughout the length of the core and we assessed trends in δ13C at 5 cm resolution. We developed a composite chronology (average resolution of ±50 years for a 1 cm slice) using 30 AMS radiocarbon dates and historical chronological markers of known age (137Cs, heavy metals, Pb isotopes, pollen). We assessed core compaction (mechanical compression) by collecting compaction-free basal-peat samples and using a published decompaction model. We employed fossil foraminifera and bulk sediment δ13C to estimate paleomarsh elevation using a Bayesian transfer function trained by a previously-published regional modern foraminiferal dataset. We combined the proxy RSL reconstruction and local tide-gauge measurements from Newport, Rhode Island (1931 CE to present) and estimated past rates of RSL change using an Errors-in-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process (EIV-IGP) model. Both basal peats and the decompaction model suggest that our RSL record is not significantly compacted. RSL rose from -3.9 m at 1250 BCE reaching -0.4 m at 1850 CE (1 mm/yr). We removed a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) contribution of 0.9 mm/yr based on a local GPS site to facilitate comparison to regional records. The detrended sea-level reconstruction shows multiple departures from stable sea level (0 mm/yr) over the last 3,300 years and agrees with prior reconstructions from the US Atlantic coast showing evidence for sea-level changes that may be related to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age. In contrast to a similar study in Connecticut, we identified oscillations in RSL prior to the MCA. Further records in the region are required to identify whether these RSL oscillations are related to other periods of climate variability or reflect local-scale processes.

Diagnosing the leading mode of interdecadal covariability between the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and summer precipitation in southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jingpeng; Ren, Hong-Li; Li, Weijing; Zuo, Jinqing

2018-03-01

Precipitation in southern China during boreal summer (June to August) shows a substantial interdecadal variability on the timescale longer than 8 years. In this study, based on the analysis of singular value decomposition, we diagnose the leading mode of interdecadal covariability between the observational precipitation in southern China and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean. Results indicate that there exist a remarkable southern China zonal dipole (SCZD) pattern of interdecadal variability of summer precipitation and an interdecadal Indian Ocean basin mode (ID-IOBM) of SST. It is found that the SCZD is evidently covaried with the ID-IOBM, which may induce anomalous inter-hemispheric vertical circulation and atmospheric Kelvin waves. During the warm phase of the ID-IOBM, an enhanced lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence exist over the tropical Indian Ocean, which is a typical Gill-Matsuno-type response to the SST warming. Meanwhile, the accompanied upper-level outflow anomalies further converge over the Indo-China peninsula, resulting in a lower-level anticyclone that contributes to reduction of the eastward moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal to the west part of southern China. In addition, the Kelvin wave-like pattern, as a response of the warm ID-IOBM phase, further induces the lower-level anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea-Philippines. Such an anticyclonic circulation is favorable for more water vapor transport from the East China Sea into the east part of southern China. Therefore, the joint effects of the anomalous inter-hemispheric vertical circulation and the Kelvin wave-like pattern associated with the ID-IOBM may eventually play a key role in generating the SCZD pattern.

Interactions between Antarctic sea ice and large-scale atmospheric modes in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeter, Serena; Hobbs, Will; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

2017-03-01

The response of Antarctic sea ice to large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability varies according to sea ice sector and season. In this study, interannual atmosphere-sea ice interactions were explored using observations and reanalysis data, and compared with simulated interactions by models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulated relationships between atmospheric variability and sea ice variability generally reproduced the observed relationships, though more closely during the season of sea ice advance than the season of sea ice retreat. Atmospheric influence on sea ice is known to be strongest during advance, and it appears that models are able to capture the dominance of the atmosphere during advance. Simulations of ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions during retreat, however, require further investigation. A large proportion of model ensemble members overestimated the relative importance of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) compared with other modes of high southern latitude climate, while the influence of tropical forcing was underestimated. This result emerged particularly strongly during the season of sea ice retreat. The zonal patterns of the SAM in many models and its exaggerated influence on sea ice overwhelm the comparatively underestimated meridional influence, suggesting that simulated sea ice variability would become more zonally symmetric as a result. Across the seasons of sea ice advance and retreat, three of the five sectors did not reveal a strong relationship with a pattern of large-scale atmospheric variability in one or both seasons, indicating that sea ice in these sectors may be influenced more strongly by atmospheric variability unexplained by the major atmospheric modes, or by heat exchange in the ocean.

Recruitment success of different fish stocks in the North Sea in relation to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dippner, Joachim W.

1997-09-01

Long-term data of year class strengths of different commercially harvested fish stocks based on a virtual population analysis (VPA) are available from ICES. The anomalies of these long-term data sets of year class strength are analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) and are related to climate variability: the anomalies of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern North Sea and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) between the leading eigenmodes is performed. The results suggest that the variability in the fish recruitment of western mackerel and three gadoids, namely North Sea cod, North Sea saithe, and North Sea whiting is highly correlated to the variability of the North Sea SST which is directly influenced by the NAO. For North Sea haddock and herring no meaningful correlation exists to North Sea SST and NAO. The results allow the conclusion that is seems possible to predict long-term changes in the fish recruitment from climate change scenarios for North Sea cod, North Sea saithe and western mackerel. Furthermore, the results indicate the possibility of recruitment failure for North Sea cod, North Sea whiting, and western mackerel in the case of global warming.

Assessment of Climatological Trends of Sea Level over the Indian Coast Using Artificial Neural Network and Wavelet Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudha Rani, N. N. V.; Satyanarayana, A. N. V.; Bhaskaran, Prasad Kumar

2017-04-01

In the present study, an attempt has been made to understand the variability of mean sea level (MSL) over east and west coast of India during 1973-2010. For this purpose, the monthly tide gauge data available over Kandla, Mumbai and Cochin along west coast and Diamond Harbour, Haldia, Visakhapatnam and Chennai along east coast obtained from PSMSL data archives has been considered. Sea level data from the tide gauge records show loss of data due to any disfunctioning of equipment or upgrade of the tide gauge resulting loss of data. It requires no gaps in the time series of MSL during the study period, and needs to be filled with better accuracy and hence artificial neural networks was implemented. To examine any periodicities of MSL variability, continuous wavelet analysis was conducted. The interrelationships between the stations in time-frequency space were examined, using cross and coherence wavelet analysis as well. The study reveals notable interannual variability of MSL. An observational analysis was done to understand the relation between inter-annual variability of MSL anomalies and ENSO. During positive (negative) SOI as associated with positive (negative) MSL anomaly was noticed significantly for the winter season over east (west) coast, where as during post-monsoon season this was observed for east coast and is less prevalent along the west coast. The observational analysis revealed that for the west (east) coast positive IOD showed significantly increased (decreased) MSL anomalies and negative IOD showed significantly decreased (increased) MSL anomalies. It is also found that the concurrent ENSO and IOD may have a different impact on MSL. The observations also reveal an increase of 1.353 mm/year on the east coast and observed a total 0.372 mm/year on the west coast.

Rising climate variability and synchrony in North Pacific ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, Bryan

2017-04-01

Rising climate variability and synchrony in North Pacific ecosystems Evidence is growing that climate variability of the northeast Pacific Ocean has increased over the last century, culminating in such events as the record-breaking El Niño years 1983, 1998, and 2016 and the unusually persistent 2014/15 North Pacific Ocean heat wave known as "The Blob." Of particular concern is that rising variability could increase synchrony within and among North Pacific ecosystems, which could reduce the diversity of biological responses to climate (i.e. the "portfolio effect"), diminish resilience, and leave populations more prone to extirpation. To test this phenomenon, we use a network of multidecadal fish otolith growth-increment chronologies that were strongly correlated to records of winter (Jan-Mar) sea level. These biological and physical datasets spanned the California Current through the Gulf of Alaska. Synchrony was quantified as directional changes in running (31-year window) mean pairwise correlation within sea level and then within otolith time series. Synchrony in winter sea level at the nine stations with the longest records has increased by more than 40% over the 1950-2015 interval. Likewise, synchrony among the eight longest otolith chronologies has increased more than 100% over a comparable time period. These directional changes in synchrony are highly unlikely due to chance alone, as confirmed by comparing trends in observed data to those in simulated data (n = 10,000 iterations) with time series of identical number, length, and autocorrelation. Ultimately, this trend in rising synchrony may be linked to increased impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on mid-latitude ecosystems of North America, and may therefore reflect a much broader, global-scale signature.

Development of new geoinformation methods for modelling and prediction of sea level change over different timescales - overview of the project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niedzielski, T.; Włosińska, M.; Miziński, B.; Hewelt, M.; Migoń, P.; Kosek, W.; Priede, I. G.

2012-04-01

The poster aims to provide a broad scientific audience with a general overview of a project on sea level change modelling and prediction that has just commenced at the University of Wrocław, Poland. The initiative that the project fits, called the Homing Plus programme, is organised by the Foundation for Polish Science and financially supported by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund and the Innovative Economy Programme. There are two key research objectives of the project that complement each other. First, emphasis is put on modern satellite altimetric gridded time series from the Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO) repository. Daily sea level anomaly maps, access to which in near-real time is courtesy of AVISO, are being steadily downloaded every day to our local server in Wroclaw, Poland. These data will be processed within a general framework of modelling and prediction of sea level change in short, medium and long term. Secondly, sea level change over geological time is scrutinised in order to cover very long time scales that go far beyond a history of altimetric and tide-gauge measurements. The aforementioned approaches comprise a few tasks that aim to solve the following detailed problems. Within the first one, our objective is to seek spatio-temporal dependencies in the gridded sea level anomaly time series. Subsequently, predictions that make use of such cross-correlations shall be derived, and near-real time service for automatic update with validation will be implemented. Concurrently, (i.e. apart from spatio-temporal dependencies and their use in the process of forecasting variable sea level topography), threshold models shall be utilised for predicting the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal that is normally present in sea level anomaly time series of the equatorial Pacific. Within the second approach, however, the entirely different methods are proposed. Links between sea floor topography and sea level change will be quantified, with a particular emphasis placed on the hypsometric curve and its semi-empirical modelling. Very long-term projections of sea level change will be based on testing statistical hypotheses and trend analyses, but input data will be calculated from theoretical models. Slightly apart from this topic is a notion of nonlinearity that was earlier shown to be present in gridded sea level anomaly time series. Thus, the list of intermediate tasks concludes with a need for a comprehensive interpretation of such irregularities.

Raising the Dead without a Red Sea-Dead Sea Canal? A hydro-economic-institutional analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenberg, D. E.

2010-12-01

Presently, just 100 million cubic meters per year (MCM/year) of the 1,000+ MCM/year that historically flowed in the lower Jordan River reach the Dead Sea. Israeli, Jordanian, and Syrian dam and extraction projects built over seven decades have principally caused the reduced flow, associated falling Dead Sea level, shrinking surface area, sink holes, salinity, and other catastrophic problems. These problems will be magnified in the face of up to 20% reductions in precipitation expected with climate change. The fix proposed by Jordan, Israel, and Palestine—and now under study by the World Bank—envisions building a $US 5 billion multipurpose canal from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea that would also generate hydropower and desalinated water. Yet alternatives to raise the Dead Sea level that could take advantage of hydrologic variability remain unstudied. Here we show system-wide hydrologic and economic impacts of and discusses institutional management for alternatives to raise the Dead Sea level. Hydro-economic model results for the inter-tied Israel-Jordan-Palestinian water systems show the desalination component of the Red Sea-Dead Sea project is economically unviable. Further, many decentralized new supply, wastewater reuse, conveyance, conservation, and leak reduction projects and programs in each country together increase economic benefits and can reliably deliver up to 900 MCM/year to the Dead Sea. In all cases, results show that net benefits fall and water scarcity rises as the flow volume delivered to the Dead Sea increases. These findings suggest that (i) each country has little individual incentive to allow water to flow to the Dead Sea, and (ii) outside institutions—such as the World Bank—that seek to raise the Dead should instead offer the countries direct incentives to deliver water rather than build them new infrastructure. The work expands the set of viable options to raise the Dead Sea level and can help the World Bank and others recommend whether to move forward with the Red Sea-Dead Sea project.

Morphological response of the saltmarsh habitats of the Guadiana estuary due to flow regulation and sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampath, D. M. R.; Boski, T.

2016-12-01

In the context of rapid sea-level rise in the 21st century, the reduction of fluvial sediment supply due to the regulation of river discharge represents a major challenge for the management of estuarine ecosystems. Therefore, the present study aims to assess the cumulative impacts of the reduction of river discharge and projected sea-level rise on the morphological evolution of the Guadiana estuary during the 21st century. The assessment was based on a set of analytical solutions to simplified equations of tidal wave propagation in shallow waters and empirical knowledge of the system. As methods applied to estimate environmental flows do not take into consideration the fluvial discharge required to maintain saltmarsh habitats and the impact of sea-level rise, simulations were carried out for ten cases in terms of base river flow and sea-level rise so as to understand their sensitivity on the deepening of saltmarsh platforms. Results suggest saltmarsh habitats may not be affected severely in response to lower limit scenarios of sea-level rise and sedimentation. A similar behaviour can be expected even due to the upper limit scenarios until 2050, but with a significant submergence afterwards. In the case of the upper limit scenarios under scrutiny, there was a net erosion of sediment from the estuary. Multiplications of amplitudes of the base flow function by factors 1.5, 2, and 5 result in reduction of the estimated net eroded sediment volume by 25, 40, and 80%, respectively, with respect to the net eroded volume for observed river discharge. The results also indicate that defining the minimum environmental flow as a percentage of dry season flow (as done presently) should be updated to include the full spectrum of natural flows, incorporating temporal variability to better anticipate scenarios of sea-level rise during this century. As permanent submergence of intertidal habitats can be significant after 2050, due to the projected 79 cm rise of sea-level by the year 2100, a multi-dimensional approach should be adopted to mitigate the consequences of sea-level rise and strong flow regulations on the ecosystem of the Guadiana Estuary.

Advanced Regional and Decadal Predictions of Coastal Inundation for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B. P.; Donnelly, J. P.; Corbett, D. R.; Kemp, A.; Lindeman, K.; Mann, M. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Rahmstorf, S.

2012-12-01

Future inundation of the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts will depend upon both sea-level rise and the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones, each of which will be affected by climate change. In this proposal, we will employ new interdisciplinary approaches to bring about a step change in the reliability of predictions of such inundation. The rate of sea-level rise along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts has increased throughout the 20th century. Whilst there is widespread agreement that it continue to accelerate during the 21st century, great uncertainty surrounds its magnitude and geographic distribution. Key uncertainties include the role of continental ice sheets, mountain glaciers and ocean density changes. Insufficient understanding of these complex physical processes precludes accurate prediction of sea-level rise. New approaches using semi-empirical models that relate instrumental records of climate and sea-level rise have projected up to 2 m of sea-level rise by AD 2100. But the time span of instrumental sea-level records is insufficient to adequately constrain the climate:sea-level relationship. Here, we produce new high resolution proxy data of sea-level and temperature to provide crucial additional constraints to such semi-empirical models. Our dataset will span the alternation between the "Medieval Climate Anomaly" and "Little Ice Age". Before the models can provide appropriate data for coastal management and planning, they must be complemented with regional estimates of sea-level rise. Therefore, the proxy sea-level data has been collected from six study areas (Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia and Atlantic and Gulf coasts of Florida) to accommodate the required extent of regional variability. In the case of inundation arising from tropical cyclones, the historical and observational records are insufficient for predicting their nature and recurrence, because they are such extreme and rare events. Moreover, in the future, the resultant storm surges will be superimposed on background sea-level rise. To overcome these problems, we couple regional sea-level rise projections with hurricane simulations and storm surge models to map coastal inundation for the current climate and the best and worst case climate scenarios of the IPCC AR4. The products of this proposal will raise the bar for the scientific prediction of region-specific inundation probabilities in terms of coordinated semi-empirical proxy data, hindcast- and forecast-driven sea-level modeling and tropical cyclone forecasting. To optimize transfer of this often complex information for effective adaptive decision-making by managers and planners, we will systematically review >800 adaptation reports and consult early and often with primary endusers to identify their exact needs. We will produce high penetration print and web products for diverse audiences, specific to each region.

Hydroclimatic variability in the Levant during the early last glacial (˜ 117-75 ka) derived from micro-facies analyses of deep Dead Sea sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neugebauer, I.; Schwab, M. J.; Waldmann, N. D.; Tjallingii, R.; Frank, U.; Hadzhiivanova, E.; Naumann, R.; Taha, N.; Agnon, A.; Enzel, Y.; Brauer, A.

2016-01-01

The new sediment record from the deep Dead Sea basin (ICDP core 5017-1) provides a unique archive for hydroclimatic variability in the Levant. Here, we present high-resolution sediment facies analysis and elemental composition by micro-X-ray fluorescence (µXRF) scanning of core 5017-1 to trace lake levels and responses of the regional hydroclimatology during the time interval from ca. 117 to 75 ka, i.e. the transition between the last interglacial and the onset of the last glaciation. We distinguished six major micro-facies types and interpreted these and their alterations in the core in terms of relative lake level changes. The two end-member facies for highest and lowest lake levels are (a) up to several metres thick, greenish sediments of alternating aragonite and detrital marl laminae (aad) and (b) thick halite facies, respectively. Intermediate lake levels are characterised by detrital marls with varying amounts of aragonite, gypsum or halite, reflecting lower-amplitude, shorter-term variability. Two intervals of pronounced lake level drops occurred at ˜ 110-108 ± 5 and ˜ 93-87 ± 7 ka. They likely coincide with stadial conditions in the central Mediterranean (Melisey I and II pollen zones in Monticchio) and low global sea levels during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5d and 5b. However, our data do not support the current hypothesis of an almost complete desiccation of the Dead Sea during the earlier of these lake level low stands based on a recovered gravel layer. Based on new petrographic analyses, we propose that, although it was a low stand, this well-sorted gravel layer may be a vestige of a thick turbidite that has been washed out during drilling rather than an in situ beach deposit. Two intervals of higher lake stands at ˜ 108-93 ± 6 and ˜ 87-75 ± 7 ka correspond to interstadial conditions in the central Mediterranean, i.e. pollen zones St. Germain I and II in Monticchio, and Greenland interstadials (GI) 24+23 and 21 in Greenland, as well as to sapropels S4 and S3 in the Mediterranean Sea. These apparent correlations suggest a close link of the climate in the Levant to North Atlantic and Mediterranean climates during the time of the build-up of Northern Hemisphere ice shields in the early last glacial period.

Gravity Field Changes due to Long-Term Sea Level Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarynskyy, O.; Kuhn, M.; Featherstone, W. E.

2004-12-01

Long-term sea level changes caused by climatic changes (e.g. global warming) will alter the system Earth. This includes the redistribution of ocean water masses due to the migration of cold fresh water from formerly ice-covered regions to the open oceans mainly caused by the deglaciation of polar ice caps. Consequently also a change in global ocean circulation patterns will occur. Over a longer timescale, such mass redistributions will be followed by isostatic rebound/depression due to the changed surface un/loading, resulting in variable sea level change around the world. These, in turn, will affect the gravity field, location of the geocentre, and the Earth's rotation vector. This presentation focuses mainly on gravity field changes induced by long-term (hundredths to many thousand years) sea level changes using an Earth System Climate Model (ESCM) of intermediate complexity. In this study, the coupled University of Victoria (Victoria, Canada) Earth System Climate Model (Uvic ESCM) was used, which embraces the primary thermodynamic and hydrological components of the climate system including sea and land-ice information. The model was implemented to estimate changes in global precipitation, ocean mass redistribution, seawater temperature and salinity on timescales from hundreds to thousands years under different greenhouse warming scenarios. The sea level change output of the model has been converted into real mass changes by removing the steric effect, computed from seawater temperature and salinity information at different layers also provided by Uvic ESCM. Finally the obtained mass changes have been converted into changes of the gravitational potential and subsequently of the geoid height using a spherical harmonic representation of the different data. Preliminary numerical results are provided for sea level change as well as change in geoid height.

The Linear Predictability of Sea Level: A Benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonnewald, M.; Wunsch, C.; Heimbach, P.

2016-12-01

A benchmark of linear predictive skill of global sea level is presented, complimenting more complicated model studies of future predictive skill. Sea level is of great socioeconomic interest, as most of the worlds population live by the sea. Currently, the spread in model projections suggests poor predictive skill outside the seasonal cycle. We use 20 years of data from the ECCOv4 state estimate (1992-2012), assessing the variance attributable to the seasons and the linear predictability potential of the deseasoned component of sea level. The Northern Hemisphere has large regions where the seasons make up >90% of the variance, particularly in the western boundary current regions and zonal bands along the equator. The deaseasoned sea level is more dominant in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the Southern Ocean. We treat the deseasoned sea level as a weakly stationary random process, whose predictability is given by the covariance structure. Fitting an ARMA(n,m) model, we choose the order using the Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC and BIC). The AIC is more appropriate, with generally higher orders chosen and offering slightly more predictive accuracy. Monthly detrended data shows skill generally of the order of a few months, with isolated regions of twelve months or more. With the trend, the predictive skill increases, particularly in the South Pacific. We assess the annually averaged data, although our time-series is too short to assess the variability. There is some predictive skill, which is enhanced if the trend is not removed. A major caveat of our approach is that we test and train our model on the same dataset due to the short duration of available data.

Nest inundation from sea-level rise threatens sea turtle population viability.

PubMed

Pike, David A; Roznik, Elizabeth A; Bell, Ian

2015-07-01

Contemporary sea-level rise will inundate coastal habitats with seawater more frequently, disrupting the life cycles of terrestrial fauna well before permanent habitat loss occurs. Sea turtles are reliant on low-lying coastal habitats worldwide for nesting, where eggs buried in the sand remain vulnerable to inundation until hatching. We show that saltwater inundation directly lowers the viability of green turtle eggs (Chelonia mydas) collected from the world's largest green turtle nesting rookery at Raine Island, Australia, which is undergoing enigmatic decline. Inundation for 1 or 3 h reduced egg viability by less than 10%, whereas inundation for 6 h reduced viability by approximately 30%. All embryonic developmental stages were vulnerable to mortality from saltwater inundation. Although the hatchlings that emerged from inundated eggs displayed normal physical and behavioural traits, hypoxia during incubation could influence other aspects of the physiology or behaviour of developing embryos, such as learning or spatial orientation. Saltwater inundation can directly lower hatching success, but it does not completely explain the consistently low rates of hatchling production observed on Raine Island. More frequent nest inundation associated with sea-level rise will increase variability in sea turtle hatching success spatially and temporally, due to direct and indirect impacts of saltwater inundation on developing embryos.

Nest inundation from sea-level rise threatens sea turtle population viability

PubMed Central

Pike, David A.; Roznik, Elizabeth A.; Bell, Ian

2015-01-01

Contemporary sea-level rise will inundate coastal habitats with seawater more frequently, disrupting the life cycles of terrestrial fauna well before permanent habitat loss occurs. Sea turtles are reliant on low-lying coastal habitats worldwide for nesting, where eggs buried in the sand remain vulnerable to inundation until hatching. We show that saltwater inundation directly lowers the viability of green turtle eggs (Chelonia mydas) collected from the world's largest green turtle nesting rookery at Raine Island, Australia, which is undergoing enigmatic decline. Inundation for 1 or 3 h reduced egg viability by less than 10%, whereas inundation for 6 h reduced viability by approximately 30%. All embryonic developmental stages were vulnerable to mortality from saltwater inundation. Although the hatchlings that emerged from inundated eggs displayed normal physical and behavioural traits, hypoxia during incubation could influence other aspects of the physiology or behaviour of developing embryos, such as learning or spatial orientation. Saltwater inundation can directly lower hatching success, but it does not completely explain the consistently low rates of hatchling production observed on Raine Island. More frequent nest inundation associated with sea-level rise will increase variability in sea turtle hatching success spatially and temporally, due to direct and indirect impacts of saltwater inundation on developing embryos. PMID:26587269

Improvement in Simulation of Eurasian Winter Climate Variability with a Realistic Arctic Sea Ice Condition in an Atmospheric GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong

2012-01-01

The present study investigates how much a realistic Arctic sea ice condition can contribute to improve simulation of the winter climate variation over the Eurasia region. Model experiments are set up using different sea ice boundary conditions over the past 24 years (i.e., 1988-2011). One is an atmospheric model inter-comparison (AMIP) type of run forced with observed sea-surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and greenhouse gases (referred to as Exp RSI), and the other is the same as Exp RSI except for the sea ice forcing, which is a repeating climatological annual cycle (referred to as Exp CSI). Results show that Exp RSI produces the observed dominant pattern of Eurasian winter temperatures and their interannual variation better than Exp CSI (correlation difference up to approx. 0.3). Exp RSI captures the observed strong relationship between the sea ice concentration near the Barents and Kara seas and the temperature anomaly across Eurasia, including northeastern Asia, which is not well captured in Exp CSI. Lagged atmospheric responses to sea ice retreat are examined using observations to understand atmospheric processes for the Eurasian cooling response including the Arctic temperature increase, sea-level pressure increase, upper-level jet weakening and cold air outbreak toward the mid-latitude. The reproducibility of these lagged responses by Exp RSI is also evaluated.

Temporal variability in SeaWiFS derived apparent optical properties in European seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vantrepotte, V.; Mélin, F.

2010-02-01

The 10-year record of ocean color data provided by the SeaWiFS mission is an important asset for monitoring and research activities conducted on the optically complex European seas. This study makes use of the SeaWiFS data set of normalized water leaving radiances LWN to study the major characteristics of temporal variability associated with optical properties across the entire European domain. Specifically, the time series of LWN and associated band ratios are decomposed into terms representing a fixed seasonal cycle, irregular variations and trends, and the contribution of these components to the total variance is described for the various basins. The diversity of the European waters is fully reflected by the range of results varying with regions and wavelengths. Generally, the Mediterranean and Baltic seas appear as two end-members with, respectively, high and low contributions of the seasonal component to the total variance. The existence of linear trends affecting the satellite products is also explored for each basin. By focusing the analysis on LWN and band ratios, the validity of the results is not limited by the varying levels of uncertainty that characterize derived products such as the concentration of chlorophyll a in optically complex waters. Statistically significant, and in some cases large, trends are detected in the Atlantic Ocean west of the European western shelf, the central North Sea, the English Channel, the Black Sea, the northern Adriatic, and various regions of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern Baltic Sea, revealing changes in the concentrations of optically significant constituents in these regions.

The long-term variability of chemical structure of deep-water basins of the Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serebrennikova, Ekaterina

2017-04-01

The Caspian Sea is a unique water object: the biggest lake on Earth, so large that it actually functions as a sea, but totally isolated from the World Ocean and extremely responsive to the climatic changes. The Caspian Sea is characterized by periodical large-scale sea level oscillations - it is one of the manifestations of multidecadal climatic fluctuations on East European Plain. In order to monitor the environmental conditions staff of the Laboratory of Hydrochemistry of Russian Federal Research Institution of Fisheries and Oceanography (FSBSI "VNIRO") in collaboration with other russian scientific institutions conducts annual research cruises to the Caspian Sea. For the last 40 years natural and anthropogenic climatic changes caused a stable stratification of the water column in both Caspian basins and the nourishment depletion of the photic layer, created and annually aggravated by the biological pump. The data, collected in annual expeditions since 1995, shows the progressing hypoxia below the depth of 400 meters and the formation of hydrogen sulfidic contamination in bottom waters. The cumulative effect of natural variability and extremely intensive anthropogenic stress creates a very depressing environment for all the aquatics, from phytoplankton to unique commercial species. In the last 20 years the level of the Caspian Sea has lowered for 2,5 meters. This is a result of changes in the water balance of the Caspian Sea, that includes the decrease of freshwater income. In long-term perspective this leads to an increase in surface water density and in winter convection depth. However up until 2016 the stratification of the water column stayed stable, so the deep waters were isolated form the atmosphere. Annual monitoring since 1995 has shown gradual oxygen depletion and intensive accumulation of biogenic elements. In 2016 concentrations of phosphate and nitrate were the highest ever registered for the Caspian Sea. The analysis of the research conducted in last 4 years shows the increasing possibility of major change in the hydrological and chemical structure of the waters in both Caspian deep-water basins. In June 2016 oxygenated waters were registered at the bottom of the Middle Caspian Basin for the first time in the last 20 years. This allows us to conclude, that in winter 2015-2016 the environmental conditions created surface water, dense enough to reach the bottom of the basin cascading the continental slope. Based on data, collected over the last century, the sea level, critical for the major winter convection to occur, was calculated, and in 2015 the level of the Caspian Sea has reached this mark. If the sea level lowering continues we can expect an intensive convective deep-water ventilation caused by winter cascading. This can lead to fundamental shift in nourishment enriching mechanisms of the photic layer that can boost the primary production and have positive repercussions throughout all the food chains in Caspian ecosystem.

Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakobson, L.; Jakobson, E.

2017-12-01

The observed enhanced warming of the Arctic, referred to as the AA, is expected to be related to further changes that impact mid-latitudes and the rest of the world. Our aim is to clarify how the climatic parameters in the Baltic Sea and Arctic regions are associated. Knowledge of such connections helps to define regions in the Arctic that could be with higher extent associated with the Baltic Sea region climate change. We used monthly mean reanalysis data from NCEP-CFSR and ERA-Interim. The strongest teleconnections between the same parameter (temperature, SLP, specific humidity, wind speed) at the Baltic Sea region and the Arctic are found in winter, but they are clearly affected by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. After removal of the AO index variability, correlations in winter were everywhere below ±0.5, while in other seasons there remained regions with strong (|R|>0.5, p<0.002) correlations. Strong correlations are also present between different climate variables at the Baltic Sea region and different regions of the Arctic. Temperature from 1000 to 500 hPa level at the Baltic Sea region have a strong negative correlation with the Greenland sector (the region between 20 - 80W and 55 - 80N) during all seasons except summer. The positive temperature anomaly of mild winter at the Greenland sector shifts towards east during the next seasons, reaching to Scandinavia/Baltic Sea region in summer. The Greenland sector is the region which gives the most significant correlations with the climatic parameters (temperature, wind speed, specific humidity, SLP) of the Baltic Sea region. These relationships can be explained by the AO index variability only in winter. In other seasons there has to be other influencing factors. The results of this study are valuable for selecting regions in the Arctic that have statistically the largest effect on climate in the Baltic Sea region.

Projecting future sea level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

2006-01-01

California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and geometry of these structures. Rising sea levels from climate change will increase the frequency and duration of extreme high water levels, causing historical coastal and San Francisco Bay/Delta structure design criteria to be exceeded.

Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations.

PubMed

McCarthy, Gerard D; Haigh, Ivan D; Hirschi, Joël J-M; Grist, Jeremy P; Smeed, David A

2015-05-28

Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO. We take a new approach, using sea level along the east coast of the United States to estimate ocean circulation on decadal timescales. We show that ocean circulation responds to the first mode of Atlantic atmospheric forcing, the North Atlantic Oscillation, through circulation changes between the subtropical and subpolar gyres--the intergyre region. These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States.

Sea-Level Rise and Flood Potential along the California Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delepine, Q.; Leung, C.

2013-12-01

Sea-level rise is becoming an ever-increasing problem in California. Sea-level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years, which will raise flood elevations in coastal communities. This will be an issue for private homeowners, businesses, and the state. One study suggests that Venice Beach could lose a total of at least $440 million in tourism spending and tax dollars from flooding and beach erosion if sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100. In addition, several airports, such as San Francisco International Airport, are located in coastal regions that have flooded in the past and will likely be flooded again in the next 30 years, but sea-level rise is expected to worsen the effects of flooding in the coming decades It is vital for coastal communities to understand the risks associated with sea-level rise so that they can plan to adapt to it. By obtaining accurate LiDAR elevation data from the NOAA Digital Coast Website (http://csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/?keyword=lidar#), we can create flood maps to simulate sea level rise and flooding. The data are uploaded to ArcGIS and contour lines are added for different elevations that represent future coastlines during 100-year flooding. The following variables are used to create the maps: 1. High-resolution land surface elevation data - obtained from NOAA 2. Local mean high water level - from USGS 3. Local 100-year flood water level - from the Pacific Institute 4. Sea-level rise projections for different future dates (2030, 2050, and 2100) - from the National Research Council The values from the last three categories are added to represent sea-level rise plus 100-year flooding. These values are used to make the contour lines that represent the projected flood elevations, which are then exported as KML files, which can be opened in Google Earth. Once these KML files are made available to the public, coastal communities will gain an improved understanding of how flooding and sea-level rise might affect them in the future. This would allow them to plan ahead to reduce the level of risk to homes, industry, and infrastructure San Francisco International Airport will be most likely be flooded in the next 30 years. Blue lines indicate current Mean High Water Levels. Yellow lines indicate the Mean High Water level combined with flood levels for 2030. Green, 2050, and Red lines, 2100

Holocene Sea-Levels from Greenland to Antarctica: A Pole-to-Pole Transect of Sea Level History

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, Benjamin; Peltier, William; Roy, Keven; Ashe, Erica; Shaw, Tim; Engelhart, Simon; Khan, Nicole; Kopp, Robert; Simkins, Lauren; Vacchi, Matteo; Woodroffe, Sarah

2017-04-01

The Holocene is the most recent period during which natural temperature variability predominates and, therefore, provides an important paleo perspective for understanding the climate:sea-level relationship prior to anthropogenic modification of the climate system. But our understanding of Holocene sea level is limited by a lack of a standard protocol that incorporates full consideration of vertical and temporal uncertainty for each sea-level index point. We have compiled a Holocene RSL database of 3000 validated sea-level index points from Greenland, North American Atlantic coast, Caribbean, South American Atlantic coast and Antarctica. The databases were collated using a formalized and consistent methodology to facilitate the development and comparison of regional RSL records. The database also includes information relevant to sediment compaction, and modelling of both modern-day and paleotidal ranges. We develop a spatio-temporal empirical hierarchical model to compare regional RSL histories and estimate rates of change. Holocene RSL history from near-field regions (e.g., Antarctica, Greenland and Canada) reveal a complex pattern of RSL fall from a maximum marine limit due to the net effect of eustatic sea-level rise and glacio-isostatic uplift with rates of RSL fall as great as 70 ± 5 m/ka (East Hudson Bay). Intermediate field regions (e.g., North American mid-Atlantic coast) display variable rates of RSL rise from the cumulative effect of eustatic and isostatic factors. Fast rates of RSL rise (up to 10 ± 4m/ka; New Jersey) are found in the early Holocene in regions near the center of forebulge collapse. Far-field RSL records (South American Atlantic coast) exhibit a mid-Holocene highstand, the timing and magnitude of which varies between 8 and 4 ka and <1 and 6 m, respectively. We compare RSL histories with the predictions from two recent models of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) process, namely the ICE-6GC (VM5a) model of Peltier et al. (2015) and the ICE-7G_NA (VM7) model of Roy and Peltier (2017 in press). Although the fit of these models to the wide range of inferred RSL histories along the pole-to-pole transect is very high quality, unexplained signals are identified in several restricted regions upon which work is continuing. It is remarkable that a spherically symmetric model of the internal viscoelastic structure is able to reconcile the wide range of RSL signals observed.

Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar Survey of Subsidence in Hampton Roads, Virginia (USA).

PubMed

Bekaert, D P S; Hamlington, B D; Buzzanga, B; Jones, C E

2017-11-07

Over the past century, the Hampton Roads area of the Chesapeake Bay region has experienced one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United States. This rate of relative sea level rise results from a combination of land subsidence, which has long been known to be present in the region, and rising seas associated with global warming on long timescales and exacerbated by shifts in ocean dynamics on shorter timescales. An understanding of the current-day magnitude of each component is needed to create accurate projections of future relative sea level rise upon which to base planning efforts. The objective of this study is to estimate the land component of relative sea level rise using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis applied to ALOS-1 synthetic aperture radar data acquired during 2007-2011 to generate high-spatial resolution (20-30 m) estimates of vertical land motion. Although these results are limited by the uncertainty associated with the small set of available historical SAR data, they highlight both localized rates of high subsidence and a significant spatial variability in subsidence, emphasizing the need for further measurement, which could be done with Sentinel-1 and NASA's upcoming NISAR mission.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.

2017-12-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

PubMed Central

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-01-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO–WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind–evaporation–SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST–sea level pressure–cloud–longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability. PMID:28685765

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-07-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Long and Short Term Variability of the Main Physical Parameters in the Coastal Area of the SE Baltic Proper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mingelaite, Toma; Rukseniene, Viktorija; Dailidiene, Inga

2015-04-01

Keywords: SE Baltic Sea, coastal upwelling, IR Remote Sensing The memory of the ocean and seas of atmospheric forcing events contributes to the long-term climate change. Intensifying climate change processes in the North Atlantic region including Baltic Sea has drawn widespread interest, as a changing water temperature has ecological, economic and social impact in coastal areas of the Europe seas. In this work we analyse long and short term variability of the main physical parameters in the coastal area of the South Eastern Baltic Sea Proper. The analysis of long term variability is based on monitoring data measured in the South Eastern Baltic Sea for the last 50 years. The main focus of the long term variability is changes of hydro meteorological parameters relevant to the observed changes in the climate.The water salinity variations in the Baltic Sea near the Lithuanian coast and in the Curonian Lagoon, a shallow and enclosed sub-basin of the Baltic Sea, were analysed along with the time series of some related hydroclimatic factors. The short term water temperature and salinity variations were analysed with a strong focus on coastal upwelling events. Combining both remote sensing and in situ monitoring data physical parameters such as vertical salinity variations during upwelling events was analysed. The coastal upwelling in the SE Baltic Sea coast, depending on its scale and intensity, may lead to an intrusion of colder and saltier marine waters to the Curonian Lagoon resulting in hydrodynamic changes and pronounced temperature drop extending for 30-40 km further down the Lagoon. The study results show that increasing trends of water level, air and water temperature, and decreasing ice cover duration are related to the changes in meso-scale atmospheric circulation, and more specifically, to the changes in regional and local wind regime climate. That is in a good agreement with the increasing trends in local higher intensity of westerly winds, and with the winter NAO index that indicates the change and variations of the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, including the Baltic Sea area. This work is supported by "Lithuanian Maritime Sectors' Technologies and Environmental Research Development" project Nr. VP1-3.1-ŠMM-08-K-01-019 funded by the European Social Fund Agency.

Identification of Transportation Infrastructure at Risk Due To Sea-Level Rise and Subsidence of Land In Coastal Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewari, S.; Palmer, W.; Manning, F.

2017-12-01

Climate change can affect coastal areas in a variety of ways. Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise, changes in the frequency/intensity of storms, increase in precipitation and storm surges. The resilience of transportation infrastructure located in Louisiana's coastal zone, against storm surges and climatic sea-level rise is critical. The net change in sea-level is affected by the increase in global sea level as well as land movement up or down. There are many places in coastal Louisiana that have a high subsidence rate. The subsidence could be related to excess extraction activities of oil and water, natural and/or human induced compaction, and tectonic movement. Where the land is sinking, the rate of relative sea level rise is larger than the global rate. Some of the fastest rates of relative sea level rise in the United States are occurring in areas where the land is sinking, including parts of the Gulf Coast. For example, coastal Louisiana has seen its relative sea level rise by eight inches or more in the last 50 years, which is about twice the global rate. Subsiding land in the Gulf area worsens the effects of relative sea level rise, increasing the risk of flooding in cities, inhabited islands, and tidal wetlands. The research team is investigating the trends for sea-level rise and land subsidence in coastal region of Louisiana. The variability in storm surges and its potential implication on the transportation infrastructure in the region is the focus of the study. The spatial maps will be created for spatial trends. This is extremely useful in being prepared for long-term natural hazards. The results of this study will be helpful to LADOTD and infrastructure managers and officials who are tasked with resiliency planning and management. Research results will also directly benefit university researchers in the state, Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority and LADOTD/LTRC through collaborative activity which will educate both professionals and the general public on issues related to transportation infrastructure in coastal areas while increasing overall public awareness. Also, the outcomes of the project will serve as an educational and research tool to convey to undergraduate and graduate students on how climate changes affect the transportation infrastructure safety/stability in the coastal region of the state.

Long-period sea-level variations in the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerbini, Susanna; Raicich, Fabio; Bruni, Sara; del Conte, Sara; Errico, Maddalena; Prati, Claudio; Santi, Efisio

2016-04-01

Since the beginning of its long-lasting lifetime, the Wegener initiative has devoted careful consideration to studying sea-level variations/changes across the Mediterranean Sea. Our study focuses on several long-period sea-level time series (from end of 1800 to 2012) acquired in the Mediterranean by tide gauge stations. In general, the analysis and interpretation of these data sets can provide an important contribution to research on climate change and its impacts. We have analyzed the centennial sea-level time series of six fairly well documented tide gauges. They are: Marseille, in France, Alicante in Spain, Genoa, Trieste, Venice and Marina di Ravenna (formerly Porto Corsini), in Italy. The data of the Italian stations of Marina di Ravenna and Venice clearly indicate that land subsidence is responsible for most of the observed rate of relative sea level rise. It is well known that, in the two areas, subsidence is caused by both natural processes and human activities. For these two stations, using levelling data of benchmarks at, and/or close to, the tide gauges, and for the recent years, also GPS and InSAR height time series, modelling of the long-period non-linear behavior of subsidence was successfully accomplished. After removing the land vertical motions, the estimate of the linear long-period sea-level rise at all six stations yielded remarkably consistent values, between +1,2 and +1,3 mm/yr, with associated errors ranging from ±0,2 to ±0,3 mm/yr (95% confidence interval), which also account for the statistical autocorrelation of the time series. These trends in the Mediterranean area are lower than the global mean rate of 1,7±0,2 mm/yr (1901-2010) presented by the IPCC in its 5th Assessment Report; however, they are in full agreement with a global mean sea-level rise estimate, over the period 1901-1990, recently published by Hay et al. (2015, doi:10.1038/nature14093) and obtained using probabilistic techniques that combine sea-level records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the contributing processes. An EOF analysis (Empirical Orthogonal Functions) has also been carried out on the six sea-level time series to identify the dominant modes of variability.

Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

2012-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclonic conditions. Further, it is generally agreed that global sea levels due to climate change will rise anywhere from 18 to 100 cm by the year 2100 (Donoghue, 2011, IPCC, 2007) with some projecting even higher. Further, it is recognized that coastal Mississippi is highly susceptible to a retreating shoreline from sea level rise coupled with predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms from an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (Trenberth, 2005, Webster, et al., 2005). A fully-validated, state-of-the-art ADCIRC+UnSWAN hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past and future sea level changes were simulated. A regression was performed at local tide gauges to estimate past and project future sea levels. Also, surface roughness (i.e. Manning's n and wind reduction factors) was adjusted to reflect past landcover conditions as well as estimate future landcover change. Here, past, present and future sea level scenarios are modeled using a dynamic approach, along with Hurricane Katrina, and compared to present dynamic responses to sea level rise. The dynamic results will be compared and contrasted with a simpler bathtub model (static) approach. It will be demonstrated that water levels do not change linearly with modeled sea level cases (i.e. a 50 cm rise in sea level will not result in an additional 50 cm of water level at a given location) and are highly variable to changes in local conditions (e.g. topography, bathymetry, and surface roughness). Further, nearshore wind-wave conditions are affected by changes in local sea level due to the changes in momentum transfer from the waves to the water column. The results will be used to gain insight into possible morphological changes given several sea level scenarios coupled with an intense tropical cyclone. References Donoghue, J. (2011). "Sea Level History of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the near Future." Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. IPCC (2007). "The Physical Sceince Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." Climate Change 2007, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Avery, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, eds., Cambridge Univesity Press, Cambridge. Resio, D. T. (2007). "White Paper on Estimating Hurricane Inundation Probabilities." U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 125. Trenberth, K. (2005). "Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming." Science, 308(5729), 1753-1754. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment." Science, 309(5742), 1844-1846.

XXI century projections of wind-wave conditions and sea-level rise in the Black sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonsky, A.; Garmashov, A.; Fomin, V.; Valchev, N.; Trifonova, E.

2012-04-01

Projection of regional climate changes for XXI century is one of the priorities of EC environmental programme. Potential worsening of the waves' statistics, sea level rise and extreme surges are the principal negative consequences of the climate change for marine environment. That is why the main purpose of this presentation is to discuss the above issue for the Black sea region (with a strong focus to the south-west subregion because the maximum heights of waves exceeding 10 m occur just here) using output of several global coupled models (GCM) for XXI century, wave simulation, long-term observations of sea level and statistical techniques. First of all we tried to choose the best coupled model (s) simulated the Black sea climate change and variability using the control experiments for 20 century (203). The principal result is as follows. There is not one model which is simulating adequately even one atmospheric parameter for all seasons. Therefore we considered (for the climate projection) different outputs form various models. When it was possible we calculated also the ensemble mean projection for the selected model (s) and emission scenarios. To calculate the wave projection we used the output of SWAN model forced by the GCM wind projection for 2010 to 2100. To estimate the sea level rise in XXI century and future surges statistics we extrapolate the observed sea level rise tendencies, statistical relation between wave heights and sea level and wave scenarios. Results show that in general, the climate change in XXI century doesn't lead to the catastrophic change of the Black sea wind-wave statistics including the extreme waves in the S-W Black sea. The typical atmospheric pattern leading to the intense storm in the S-W Black sea is characterized by the persistent anticyclonic area to the North of the Black sea and cyclonic conditions in the Southern Black sea region. Such pressure pattern causes persistent and strong eastern or north-eastern wind which generates the high waves in the S-E Black sea. The climate projections show that the frequency of such atmospheric pattern will not principally increase. The recent probability of the extreme wave height (exceeding 8 to10 m) in the S-W Black sea (~1 occurrence per 10 years) will not be much worse in XXI century. Similar conclusion is true for the storm surges along the Bulgarian coastline. Expected sea level rise in the Black sea basin for XXI century due to regional climate changes is about 2 mm per year (±50%). However, some Black sea subregions (such as Odessa and Varna bay) are characterized by fivefold sea level rise because of the local land subsidence. So, this geomorphologic effect is the most dangerous local consequence for the sustainable development and management of the coastal zone in such subregions. This study was supported by EC project "THESEUS".

Cold Regime Interannual Variability of Primary and Secondary Producer Community Composition in the Southeastern Bering Sea

PubMed Central

Stauffer, Beth A.; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I.

2015-01-01

Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009–2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing climate scenarios. PMID:26110822

Cold Regime interannual variability of primary and secondary producer community composition in the southeastern Bering Sea.

PubMed

Stauffer, Beth A; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I

2015-01-01

Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009-2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing climate scenarios.

Decadal variability on the Northwest European continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Sam; Cottier, Finlo; Inall, Mark; Griffiths, Colin

2018-02-01

Decadal scale time series of the shelf seas are important for understanding both climate and process studies. Despite numerous investigations of long-term temperature variability in the shelf seas, studies of salinity variability are few. Salt is a more conservative tracer than temperature in shallow seas, and it can reveal changes in local hydrographic conditions as well as transmitted basin-scale changes. Here, new inter-annual salinity time series on the northwest European shelf are developed and a 13 year high resolution salinity record from a coastal mooring in western Scotland is presented and analysed. We find strong temporal variability in coastal salinity on timescales ranging from tidal to inter-annual, with the magnitude of variability greatest during winter months. There is little seasonality and no significant decadal trend in the coastal time series of salinity. We propose 4 hydrographic states to explain salinity variance in the shelf area west of Scotland based on the interaction between a baroclinic coastal current and wind-forced barotropic flow: while wind forcing is important, we find that changes in the buoyancy-driven flow are more likely to influence long-term salinity observations. We calculate that during prevailing westerly wind conditions, surface waters in the Sea of the Hebrides receive a mix of 62% Atlantic origin water to 38% coastal sources. This contrasts with easterly wind conditions, during which the mix is 6% Atlantic to 94% coastal sources on average. This 'switching' between hydrographic states is expected to impact nutrient transport and therefore modify the level of primary productivity on the shelf. This strong local variability in salinity is roughly an order of magnitude greater than changes in the adjacent ocean basin, and we infer from this that Scottish coastal waters are likely to be resilient to decadal changes in ocean climate.

Morphometric variability of Arctodiaptomus salinus (Copepoda) in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region

PubMed Central

ANUFRIIEVA, Elena V.; SHADRIN, Nickolai V.

2015-01-01

Inter-species variability in morphological traits creates a need to know the range of variability of characteristics in the species for taxonomic and ecological tasks. Copepoda Arctodiaptomus salinus, which inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa, plays a dominant role in plankton of different water bodies-from fresh to hypersaline. This work assesses the intra- and inter-population morphometric variability of A. salinus in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region and discusses some observed regularities. The variability of linear body parameters and proportions was studied. The impacts of salinity, temperature, and population density on morphological characteristics and their variability can manifest themselves in different ways at the intra- and inter-population levels. A significant effect of salinity, pH and temperature on the body proportions was not found. Their intra-population variability is dependent on temperature and salinity. Sexual dimorphism of A. salinus manifests in different linear parameters, proportions, and their variability. There were no effects of temperature, pH and salinity on the female/male parameter ratio. There were significant differences in the body proportions of males and females in different populations. The influence of temperature, salinity, and population density can be attributed to 80%-90% of intra-population variability of A. salinus. However, these factors can explain less than 40% of inter-population differences. Significant differences in the body proportions of males and females from different populations may suggest that some local populations of A. salinus in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region are in the initial stages of differentiation. PMID:26646569

Evidence for multidecadal variability in US extreme sea level records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Chambers, Don P.

2015-03-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multidecadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Different data sampling and analysis techniques are applied to test the robustness of the results against the selected methodology. Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extratropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multidecadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-nonstationary extreme value analysis, we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (50-200 year return periods) ranging from ˜10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. The results raise questions as to the applicability of the "MSL offset method," assuming that ESL changes are primarily driven by changes in MSL without allowing for distinct long-term trends or low-frequency variations. Identifying the coherent multidecadal ESL variability is crucial in order to understand the physical driving factors. Ultimately, this information must be included into coastal design and adaptation processes.

Development of flood probability charts for urban drainage network in coastal areas through a simplified joint assessment approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archetti, R.; Bolognesi, A.; Casadio, A.; Maglionico, M.

2011-10-01

The operating conditions of urban drainage networks during storm events depend on the hydraulic conveying capacity of conduits and also on downstream boundary conditions. This is particularly true in coastal areas where the level of the receiving water body is directly or indirectly affected by tidal or wave effects. In such cases, not just different rainfall conditions (varying intensity and duration), but also different sea-levels and their effects on the network operation should be considered. This paper aims to study the behaviour of a seaside town storm sewer network, estimating the threshold condition for flooding and proposing a simplified method to assess the urban flooding severity as a function of climate variables. The case study is a portion of the drainage system of Rimini (Italy), implemented and numerically modelled by means of InfoWorks CS code. The hydraulic simulation of the sewerage system identified the percentage of nodes of the drainage system where flooding is expected to occur. Combining these percentages with both climate variables' values has lead to the definition of charts representing the combined degree of risk "rainfall-sea level" for the drainage system under investigation. A final comparison between such charts and the results obtained from a one-year rainfall-sea level time series has demonstrated the reliability of the analysis.

A Possible Cause for Recent Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, Mojib; Park, Taewook; Park, Wonsun

2017-04-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major oceanic current system with widespread climate impacts. AMOC influences have been discussed among others with regard to Atlantic hurricane activity, regional sea level variability, and surface air temperature and precipitation changes on land areas adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. Most climate models project significant AMOC slowing during the 21st century, if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise unabatedly. Recently, a marked decadal decline in AMOC strength has been observed, which was followed by strongly reduced oceanic poleward heat transport and record low sea surface temperature in parts of the North Atlantic. Here, we provide evidence from observations, re-analyses and climate models that the AMOC decline was due to the combined action of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern, the two leading modes of North Atlantic atmospheric surface pressure variability, which prior to the decline both transitioned into their negative phases. This change in atmospheric circulation diminished oceanic heat loss over the Labrador Sea and forced ocean circulation changes lowering upper ocean salinity transport into that region. As a consequence, Labrador Sea deep convection weakened, which eventually slowed the AMOC. This study suggests a new mechanism for decadal AMOC variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability and climate change detection in the North Atlantic sector.

Data-adaptive harmonic analysis and prediction of sea level change in North Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondrashov, D. A.; Chekroun, M.

2017-12-01

This study aims to characterize North Atlantic sea level variability across the temporal and spatial scales. We apply recently developed data-adaptive Harmonic Decomposition (DAH) and Multilayer Stuart-Landau Models (MSLM) stochastic modeling techniques [Chekroun and Kondrashov, 2017] to monthly 1993-2017 dataset of Combined TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2/OSTM altimetry fields over North Atlantic region. The key numerical feature of the DAH relies on the eigendecomposition of a matrix constructed from time-lagged spatial cross-correlations. In particular, eigenmodes form an orthogonal set of oscillating data-adaptive harmonic modes (DAHMs) that come in pairs and in exact phase quadrature for a given temporal frequency. Furthermore, the pairs of data-adaptive harmonic coefficients (DAHCs), obtained by projecting the dataset onto associated DAHMs, can be very efficiently modeled by a universal parametric family of simple nonlinear stochastic models - coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators stacked per frequency, and synchronized across different frequencies by the stochastic forcing. Despite the short record of altimetry dataset, developed DAH-MSLM model provides for skillful prediction of key dynamical and statistical features of sea level variability. References M. D. Chekroun and D. Kondrashov, Data-adaptive harmonic spectra and multilayer Stuart-Landau models. HAL preprint, 2017, https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01537797

Holocene Relative Sea-Level Changes from Near-, Intermediate-, and Far-Field Locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. S.; Khan, N.; Shaw, T.; Ashe, E.; Vacchi, M.; Peltier, W. R.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.

2015-12-01

Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) records exhibit spatial and temporal variability that arises mainly from the interaction of eustatic (land ice volume and thermal expansion) and isostatic (glacio- and hydro-) factors. We fit RSL histories from near-, intermediate-, and far-field locations with noisy-input Gaussian process models to assess rates of RSL change from selected study areas. Records from near-field regions (e.g., Antarctica, Greenland, Canada, Sweden, and Scotland) reveal a complex pattern of RSL fall from a maximum marine limit due to the net effect of eustatic sea-level rise and glacial-isostatic uplift with rates of RSL fall as great as -69 ± 9 m/ka. Intermediate-field regions (e.g., mid-Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the United States, Netherlands, Southern France, St. Croix) display variable rates of RSL rise from the cumulative effect of isostatic and eustatic factors. Fast rates of RSL rise (up to 10 ± 1 m/ka) are found in the early Holocene in regions near the center of forebulge collapse. Far-field RSL records exhibit a mid-Holocene highstand, the timing (between 8 and 4 ka) and magnitude (between <1 and 6 m) of which varies across South America, Africa, Asia and Australia regions.

Using GRACE and climate model simulations to predict mass loss of Alaskan glaciers through 2100

DOE PAGES

Wahr, John; Burgess, Evan; Swenson, Sean

2016-05-30

Glaciers in Alaska are currently losing mass at a rate of ~–50 Gt a –1, one of the largest ice loss rates of any regional collection of mountain glaciers on Earth. Existing projections of Alaska's future sea-level contributions tend to be divergent and are not tied directly to regional observations. Here we develop a simple, regional observation-based projection of Alaska's future sea-level contribution. We compute a time series of recent Alaska glacier mass variability using monthly GRACE gravity fields from August 2002 through December 2014. We also construct a three-parameter model of Alaska glacier mass variability based on monthly ERA-Interimmore » snowfall and temperature fields. When these three model parameters are fitted to the GRACE time series, the model explains 94% of the variance of the GRACE data. Using these parameter values, we then apply the model to simulated fields of monthly temperature and snowfall from the Community Earth System Model, to obtain predictions of mass variations through 2100. Here, we conclude that mass loss rates may increase between –80 and –110 Gt a –1by 2100, with a total sea-level rise contribution of 19 ± 4 mm during the 21st century.« less

Modelling the thermosteric contribution to global and regional sea-level rise during the last interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singarayer, Joy; Stone, Emma; Whipple, Matthew; Lunt, Dan; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Gregory, Jonathan

2014-05-01

Global sea level during the last interglacial is likely to have been between 5.5 and 9m above present (Dutton and Lambeck, 2012). Recent calculations, taking into account latest NEEM ice core information, suggest that Greenland would probably not have contributed more than 2.2m to this (Stone et al, 2013), implying a considerable contribution from Antarctica. Previous studies have suggested a significant loss from the West Antarctic ice-sheet (e.g. Holden et al, 2010), which could be initiated following a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and resultant warming in the Southern Ocean. Here, model simulations with FAMOUS and HadCM3 have been performed of the last interglacial under various scenarios of reduced Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet configurations, and with and without collapsed AMOC. Thermal expansion and changes in regional density structure (resulting from ocean circulation changes) can also influence sea level, in addition to ice mass effects discussed thus far. The HadCM3 and FAMOUS simulations will be used to estimate the contribution to global and regional sea level change in interglacials from the latter two factors using a similar methodology to the IPCC TAR/AR4 estimations of future sea level rise (Gregory and Lowe, 2000). The HadCM3 and FAMOUS both have a rigid lid in their ocean model, and consequently a fixed ocean volume. Thermal expansion can, however, be calculated as a volume change from in-situ density (a prognostic variable from the model). Relative sea surface topography will then be estimated from surface pressure gradients and changes in atmospheric pressure. Dutton A., and Lambeck K., 2013. Ice Volume and Sea Level During the Last Interglacial. Science, 337, 216-219 Gregory J.M. and Lowe J.A., 2000. Predictions of global and regional sea-level using AOGCMs with and without flux adjustment. GRL, 27, 3069-3072 Holden P. et al., 2010. Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials. Clim. Past, 6, 431-443 Stone E.J., et al., 2013. Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise. Clim. Past, 9, 621-639

Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saurral, Ramiro I.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; García-Serrano, Javier

2018-02-01

The South Pacific (SP) region exerts large control on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere at many times scales. This paper identifies the main modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SP which consist of a tropical-driven mode related to a horseshoe structure of positive/negative SST anomalies within midlatitudes and highly correlated to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) variability, and another mode mostly confined to extratropical latitudes which is characterized by zonal propagation of SST anomalies within the South Pacific Gyre. Both modes are associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies over the continental regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Besides the leading mode which is related to well known warmer/cooler and drier/moister conditions due to its relationship with ENSO and the IPO, an inspection of the extratropical mode indicates that it is associated with distinct patterns of sea level pressure and surface temperature advection. These relationships are used here as plausible and partial explanations to the observed warming trend observed within the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades.

Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries

PubMed Central

Liu, Yu; Cobb, Kim M.; Song, Huiming; Li, Qiang; Li, Ching-Yao; Nakatsuka, Takeshi; An, Zhisheng; Zhou, Weijian; Cai, Qiufang; Li, Jinbao; Leavitt, Steven W.; Sun, Changfeng; Mei, Ruochen; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Chan, Ming-Hsun; Sun, Junyan; Yan, Libin; Lei, Ying; Ma, Yongyong; Li, Xuxiang; Chen, Deliang; Linderholm, Hans W.

2017-01-01

The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies. PMID:28555638

Interannual to decadal climate variability of sea salt aerosols in the coupled climate model CESM1.0: Climate variability of sea salt aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Li; Pierce, David W.; Russell, Lynn M.

This study examines multi-year climate variability associated with sea salt aerosols and their contribution to the variability of shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) using a 150-year simulation for pre-industrial conditions of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). The results suggest that changes in sea salt and related cloud and radiative properties on interannual timescales are dominated by the ENSO cycle. Sea salt variability on longer (interdecadal) timescales is associated with low-frequency Pacific ocean variability similar to the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), but does not show a statistically significant spectral peak. A multivariate regression suggests that sea salt aerosol variabilitymore » may contribute to SWCF variability in the tropical Pacific, explaining up to 25-35% of the variance in that region. Elsewhere, there is only a small aerosol influence on SWCF through modifying cloud droplet number and liquid water path that contributes to the change of cloud effective radius and cloud optical depth (and hence cloud albedo), producing a multi-year aerosol-cloud-wind interaction.« less

Ground air: A first approximation of the Earth's second largest reservoir of carbon dioxide gas.

PubMed

Baldini, James U L; Bertram, Rachel A; Ridley, Harriet E

2018-03-01

It is becoming increasingly clear that a substantial reservoir of carbon exists in the unsaturated zone of aquifers, though the total size of this reservoir on a global scale remains unquantified. Here we provide the first broad estimate of the amount of carbon dioxide gas found in this terrestrial reservoir. We calculate that between 2 and 53 PgC exists as gaseous CO 2 in aquifers worldwide, generated by the slow microbial oxidation of organic particles transported into aquifers by percolating groundwater. Importantly, this carbon reservoir is in the form of CO 2 gas, and is therefore transferable to the Earth's atmosphere without any phase change. On a coarse scale, water table depths are partially controlled by local sea level; sea level lowering therefore allows slow carbon sequestration into the reservoir and sea level increases force rapid CO 2 outgassing from this reservoir. High-resolution cave air pCO 2 data demonstrate that sea level variability does affect CO 2 outgassing rates from the unsaturated zone, and that the CO 2 outgassing due to sea level rise currently occurs on daily (tidal) timescales. We suggest that global mean water table depth must modulate the global unsaturated zone volume and the size of this carbon reservoir, potentially affecting atmospheric CO 2 on geological timescales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of the North Atlantic circulation on the climate change patterns of North Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayan, Nikesh; Mathis, Mortiz; Klein, Birgit; Klein, Holger; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2017-04-01

The physical properties of the North Sea are characterized by the exchange of water masses with the North Atlantic at the northern boundary and Baltic Sea to the east. The combined effects of localized forcing, tidal mixing and advection of water masses make the North Sea a challenging study area. Previous investigations indicated a possibility that the variability of the North Atlantic circulation and the strength of the sub-polar gyre (SPG) might influence the physical properties of the North Sea. The assessment of the complex interaction between the North Atlantic and the North Sea in a climate change scenario requires regionally coupled global RCP simulations with enhanced resolution of the North Sea and the North Atlantic. In this study we analyzed result from the regionally coupled ocean-atmosphere-biogeochemistry model system (MPIOM-REMO-HAMOCC) with a hydrodynamic (HD) model. The ocean model has a zoomed grid which provides the highest resolution over the West European Shelf by shifting its poles over Chicago and Central Europe. An index for the intensity of SPG was estimated by averaging the barotropic stream function (ψ) over the North Atlantic. Various threshold values for ψ were tested to define the strength of the SPG. These SPG indices have been correlated with North Sea hydrographic parameters at various levels to identify areas affected by SPG variability. The influence of the Atlantic's eastern boundary current, contributing more saline waters to the North West European shelf area is also investigated.

Changes and variations in the turning angle of Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukita, J.; Honda, M.; Ishizuka, S.

2012-12-01

The motion of sea ice is under influences of forcing from winds and currents and of sea ice properties. In facing rapidly changing Arctic climate we are interested in whether we observe and quantify changes in sea ice conditions reflected in its velocity field. Theoretical consideration on the freedrift model predicts a change in the sea ice turning angle with respect to the direction of forcing wind in association with thinning sea ice thickness. Possible changes in atmospheric and ocean boundary layer conditions may be reflected in the sea ice turning angle through modification of both atmospheric and oceanic Ekman spirals. With these in mind this study examines statistical properties of the turning angle of the Arctic sea ice and compares them with atmospheric/ice/ocean conditions for the period of 1979-2010 on the basis of IABP buoy data. Preliminary results indicate that over this period the turning angle has varying trends depending on different seasons. We found weakly significant (>90% level) changes in the turning angle from August to October with the maximum trend in October. The direction of trends is counter-clockwise with respect to the geostrophic wind direction, which is consistent with the thinning of sea ice. The interannual variability of the turning angle for this peak season of the reduced sea ice cover is not the same as that of the Arctic SIE. However, in recent years the turning angle appears to covary with the surface air temperature, providing supporting evidence for the relationship between the angle and sea ice thickness. In the presentation we will provide results on the relationships between the turning angle and atmospheric and oceanic variables and further discuss their implications.

Wind extremes in the North Sea basin under climate change: an ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Winter, R.; Ruessink, G.; Sterl, A.

2012-12-01

Coastal safety may be influenced by climate change, as changes in extreme surge levels and wave extremes may increase the vulnerability of dunes and other coastal defenses. In the North Sea, an area already prone to severe flooding, these high surge levels and waves are generated by severe wind speeds during storm events. As a result of the geometry of the North Sea, not only the maximum wind speed is relevant, but also wind direction. Analyzing changes in a changing climate implies that several uncertainties need to be taken into account. First, there is the uncertainty in climate experiments, which represents the possible development of the emission of greenhouse gases. Second, there is uncertainty between the climate models that are used to analyze the effect of different climate experiments. The third uncertainty is the natural variability of the climate. When this system variability is large, small trends will be difficult to detect. The natural variability results in statistical uncertainty, especially for events with high return values. We addressed the first two types of uncertainties for extreme wind conditions in the North Sea using 12 CMIP5 GCMs. To evaluate the differences between the climate experiments, two climate experiments (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5) from 2050-2100 are compared with historical runs, running from 1950-2000. Rcp4.5 is considered to be a middle climate experiment and rcp8.5 represents high-end climate scenarios. The projections of the 12 GCMs for a given scenario illustrate model uncertainty. We focus on the North Sea basin, because changes in wind conditions could have a large impact on safety of the densely populated North Sea coast, an area that has already a high exposure to flooding. Our results show that, consistent with ERA-Interim results, the annual maximum wind speed in the historical run demonstrates large interannual variability. For the North Sea, the annual maximum wind speed is not projected to change in either rcp4.5 or rcp8.5. In fact, the differences in the 12 GCMs are larger than the difference between the three experiments. Furthermore, our results show that, the variation in direction of annual maximum wind speed is large and this precludes a firm statement on climate-change induced changes in these directions. Nonetheless, most models indicate a decrease in annual maximum wind speed from south-eastern directions and an increase from south-western and western directions. This might be caused by a poleward shift of the storm track. The amount of wind from north-west and north-north-west, wind directions that are responsible for the development of extreme storm surges in the southern part of the North Sea, are not projected to change. However, North Sea coasts that have the longest fetch for western direction, e.g. the German Bight, may encounter more often high storm surge levels and extreme waves when the annual maximum wind will indeed be more often from western direction.

The effects of sea level and palaeotopography on lithofacies distribution and geometries in heterozoan carbonates, south-eastern Spain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, C.L.; Franseen, E.K.; Goldstein, R.H.

2005-01-01

This study utilized three-dimensional exposures to evaluate how sea-level position and palaeotopography control the facies and geometries of heterozoan carbonates. Heterozoan carbonates were deposited on top of a Neogene volcanic substrate characterized by palaeotopographic highs, palaeovalleys, and straits that were formed by subaerial erosion, possibly original volcanic topography, and faults prior to carbonate deposition. The depositional sequence that is the focus of this study (DS1B) consists of 7-10 fining upward cycles that developed in response to relative sea-level fluctuations. A complete cycle has a basal erosion surface overlain by deposits of debrisflows and high-density turbidity currents, which formed during relative sea-level fall. Overlying tractive deposits most likely formed during the lowest relative position of sea level. Overlying these are debrites grading upward to high-density turbidites and low-density turbidites that formed during relative sea-level rise. The tops of the cycles consist of hemipelagic deposits that formed during the highest relative position of sea level. The cycles fine upward because upslope carbonate production decreased as relative sea level rose due to less surface area available for shallow-water carbonate production and partial drowning of substrates. The cycles are dominated by two end-member types of facies associations and stratal geometries that formed in response to fluctuating sea-level position over variable substrate palaeotopography. One end-member is termed 'flank flow cycle' because this type of cycle indicates dominant sediment transport down the flanks of palaeovalleys. Those cycles drape the substrate, have more debrites, high-density turbidites and erosion on palaeovalley flanks, and in general, the lithofacies fine down the palaeovalley flanks into the palaeovalley axes. The second end-member is termed 'axial flow cycle' because it indicates a dominance of sediment transport down the axes of palaeovalleys. Those cycles are characterized by debrites and high-density turbidites in palaeovalley axes, and lap out of strata against the flanks of palaeovalleys. Where and when an axial flow cycle or flank flow cycle developed appears to be related to the intersection of sea level with areas of gentle or steep substrate slopes, during an overall relative rise in sea level. Results from this study provide a model for similar systems that must combine carbonate principles for sediment production, palaeotopographic controls, and physical principles of sediment remobilization into deep water. ?? 2005 International Association of Sedimentologists.

Design and skill assessment of an Operational Forecasting System for currents and sea level variability to the Santos Estuarine System - Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godoi Rezende Costa, C.; Castro, B. M.; Blumberg, A. F.; Leite, J. R. B., Sr.

2017-12-01

Santos City is subject to an average of 12 storm tide events per year. Such events bring coastal flooding able to threat human life and damage coastal infrastructure. Severe events have forced the interruption of ferry boat services and ship traffic through Santos Harbor, causing great impacts to Santos Port, the largest in South America, activities. Several studies have focused on the hydrodynamics of storm tide events but only a few of those studies have pursued an operational initiative to predict short term (< 3 days) sea level variability. The goals of this study are (i) to describe the design of an operational forecasting system built to predict sea surface elevation and currents in the Santos Estuarine System and (ii) to evaluate model performance in simulating observed sea surface elevation. The Santos Operational Forecasting System (SOFS) hydrodynamic module is based on the Stevens Institute Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM). The fully automated SOFS is designed to provide up to 71 h forecast of sea surface elevations and currents every day. The system automatically collects results from global models to run the SOFS nested into another sECOM based model for the South Brazil Bight (SBB). Global forecasting results used to force both models come from Mercator Ocean, released by Copernicus Marine Service, and from the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) stablished by the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (with Portuguese acronym CPTEC). The complete routines task take about 8 hours of run time to finish. SOFS was able to hindcast a severe storm tide event that took place in Santos on August 21-22, 2016. Comparisons with observed sea level provided skills of 0.92 and maximum root mean square errors of 25 cm. The good agreement with observed data shows the potential of the designed system to predict storm tides and to support both human and assets protection.

Numerical Simulation of the RTA Combustion Rig

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davoudzadeh, Farhad; Buehrle, Robert; Liu, Nan-Suey; Winslow, Ralph

2005-01-01

The Revolutionary Turbine Accelerator (RTA)/Turbine Based Combined Cycle (TBCC) project is investigating turbine-based propulsion systems for access to space. NASA Glenn Research Center and GE Aircraft Engines (GEAE) planned to develop a ground demonstrator engine for validation testing. The demonstrator (RTA-1) is a variable cycle, turbofan ramjet designed to transition from an augmented turbofan to a ramjet that produces the thrust required to accelerate the vehicle from Sea Level Static (SLS) to Mach 4. The RTA-1 is designed to accommodate a large variation in bypass ratios from sea level static to Mach 4 conditions. Key components of this engine are new, such as a nickel alloy fan, advanced trapped vortex combustor, a Variable Area Bypass Injector (VABI), radial flameholders, and multiple fueling zones. A means to mitigate risks to the RTA development program was the use of extensive component rig tests and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bougamont, M.; Christoffersen, P.; Price, S. F.

Ongoing, centennial-scale flow variability within the Ross ice streams of West Antarctica suggests that the present-day positive mass balance in this region may reverse in the future. Here we use a three-dimensional ice sheet model to simulate ice flow in this region over 250 years. The flow responds to changing basal properties, as a subglacial till layer interacts with water transported in an active subglacial hydrological system. We show that a persistent weak bed beneath the tributaries of the dormant Kamb Ice Stream is a source of internal ice flow instability, which reorganizes all ice streams in this region, leadingmore » to a reduced (positive) mass balance within decades and a net loss of ice within two centuries. This hitherto unaccounted for flow variability could raise sea level by 5 mm this century. Furthermore, better constraints on future sea level change from this region will require improved estimates of geothermal heat flux and subglacial water transport.« less

Estimating relative sea-level rise and submergence potential at a coastal wetland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cahoon, Donald R.

2015-01-01

A tide gauge records a combined signal of the vertical change (positive or negative) in the level of both the sea and the land to which the gauge is affixed; or relative sea-level change, which is typically referred to as relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Complicating this situation, coastal wetlands exhibit dynamic surface elevation change (both positive and negative), as revealed by surface elevation table (SET) measurements, that is not recorded at tide gauges. Because the usefulness of RSLR is in the ability to tie the change in sea level to the local topography, it is important that RSLR be calculated at a wetland that reflects these local dynamic surface elevation changes in order to better estimate wetland submergence potential. A rationale is described for calculating wetland RSLR (RSLRwet) by subtracting the SET wetland elevation change from the tide gauge RSLR. The calculation is possible because the SET and tide gauge independently measure vertical land motion in different portions of the substrate. For 89 wetlands where RSLRwet was evaluated, wetland elevation change differed significantly from zero for 80 % of them, indicating that RSLRwet at these wetlands differed from the local tide gauge RSLR. When compared to tide gauge RSLR, about 39 % of wetlands experienced an elevation rate surplus and 58 % an elevation rate deficit (i.e., sea level becoming lower and higher, respectively, relative to the wetland surface). These proportions were consistent across saltmarsh, mangrove, and freshwater wetland types. Comparison of wetland elevation change and RSLR is confounded by high levels of temporal and spatial variability, and would be improved by co-locating tide gauge and SET stations near each other and obtaining long-term records for both.

Predicting location-specific extreme coastal floods in the future climate by introducing a probabilistic method to calculate maximum elevation of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of water level variations and wind waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leijala, Ulpu; Björkqvist, Jan-Victor; Johansson, Milla M.; Pellikka, Havu

2017-04-01

Future coastal management continuously strives for more location-exact and precise methods to investigate possible extreme sea level events and to face flooding hazards in the most appropriate way. Evaluating future flooding risks by understanding the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level variations and wind waves is one of the means to make more comprehensive flooding hazard analysis, and may at first seem like a straightforward task to solve. Nevertheless, challenges and limitations such as availability of time series of the sea level and wave height components, the quality of data, significant locational variability of coastal wave height, as well as assumptions to be made depending on the study location, make the task more complicated. In this study, we present a statistical method for combining location-specific probability distributions of water level variations (including local sea level observations and global mean sea level rise) and wave run-up (based on wave buoy measurements). The goal of our method is to obtain a more accurate way to account for the waves when making flooding hazard analysis on the coast compared to the approach of adding a separate fixed wave action height on top of sea level -based flood risk estimates. As a result of our new method, we gain maximum elevation heights with different return periods of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of both phenomena, "the green water". We also introduce a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the properties and functioning of our method. The sensitivity test is based on using theoretical wave distributions representing different alternatives of wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with the sea level distribution, we get information on how the different wave height conditions and shape of the wave height distribution influence the joint results. Our method presented here can be used as an advanced tool to minimize over- and underestimation of the combined effect of sea level variations and wind waves, and to help coastal infrastructure planning and support smooth and safe operation of coastal cities in a changing climate.

Gravitational failure of sea cliffs in weakly lithified sediment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hampton, M.A.

2002-01-01

Gravitational failure of sea cliffs eroded into weakly lithified sediment at several sites in California involves episodic stress-release fracturing and cantilevered block falls. The principal variables that influence the gravitational stability are tensional stresses generated during the release of horizontal confining stress and weakening of the sediment with increased saturation levels. Individual failures typically comprise less than a cubic meter of sediment, but large areas of a cliff face can be affected by sustained instability over a period of several days. Typically, only the outer meter or so of sediment is removed during a failure episode. In-place sediment saturation levels vary over time and space, generally being higher during the rainy season but moderate to high year-round. Laboratory direct-shear tests show that sediment cohesion decreases abruptly with increasing saturation level; the decrease is similar for all tested sediment if the cohesion is normalized by the maximum, dry-sediment cohesion. Large failures that extend over most or all of the height of the sea cliff are uncommon, but a few large wedge-shaped failures sometimes occur, as does separation of large blocks at sea cliff-gully intersections.

Subtropical Gyre Variability as Seen from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, Sergio R.; McClain, Charles R.

2011-01-01

A satellite multi-sensor approach is used to analyse the biological response of open ocean regions of the subtropical gyres to changes in physical forcing. Thirteen years (1998-2010) of SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (Chl-a), combined with concurrent satellite records of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea level height, were analysed to investigate the seasonal and interannual variability of Chl-a concentration within these immense so-called ocean deserts. The seasonal variability of Chl-a within the gyres is driven mostly by the warming/cooling of surface waters. Summer warming promotes shallower mixed layers and lower Chl-a due to a reduction of vertical mixing and consequently a decrease in nutrient supply. The opposite happens during the winter cooling period. Therefore, long-term trends in SST have the potential to cause an impact on the interannual variability of Chl-a. Our analyses show that, during the 13 whole years of SeaWiFS data record, the North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and North Atlantic gyres experienced a decrease in Chl-a of 9%, 12%, and 11%, respectively, with corresponding SST increases of 0.27 C, 0.42 C, and 0.32 C. The South Pacific and South Atlantic gyres also showed warming trends but with weak positive trends in Chl-a that are not statistically significant. We hypothesize that the warming of surface waters in these two gyres are counterbalanced by other interacting physical and biological driving mechanisms, as indicated in previous studies.

Compound-Specific Amino Acid Isotopic Analysis of Benthic Food Webs in the Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, M.; Cooper, L. W.; Biasatti, D. M.; Grebmeier, J. M.

2014-12-01

The Chukchi Sea is known for locally high standing stocks of benthic macrofauna and strong coupling between pelagic-benthic components of the ecosystem. However, benthic food structure is not fully understood, due to varied sources of particulate organic matter (POM) and the high diversity of benthic invertebrates. We provide the first demonstration of the application of compound-specific amino acid isotope analysis to study the dietary sources and trophic structure for this Arctic marginal sea. About 20 stations in Chukchi Sea were sampled during cruises in August of 2012 and 2013. At each station, phytoplankton, POM and benthic fauna were collected, processed and analyzed using GC-C-IRMS (gas chromatography-combustion-isotope ratio mass spectrometry). Among benthic fauna, dominant species included the following taxonomic groups: Ophiuroidea, Amphipoda, Polychaeta, Gastropoda, Bivalvia, and Cnidaria. The benthic fauna showed similar patterns of individual amino acid δ13C, with glycine the most enriched in 13C and leucine the most depleted in 13C. Specific amino acids including phenylalanine showed spatial variability in δ13C and δ15N values within the sampled area, indicating contributions of different dietary sources including phytoplankton, sea ice algae, benthic algae and terrestrial organic materials. δ15N values of individual amino acids such as the difference between glutamic acid and phenylalanine, i.e. Δ15Nglu-phe (δ15Nglu - δ15Nphe), were also used to identify trophic levels of benthic invertebrates relative to estimates available from bulk δ15N values. These data will ultimately be used to evaluate the spatial variability of organic carbon sources and trophic level interactions of dominant benthic species in the Chukchi Sea.

Ecological effects of co-culturing the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus with the Chinese white shrimp Fenneropenaeus chinensis in an earthen pond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Shun; Ren, Yichao; Pearce, Christopher M.; Dong, Shuanglin; Tian, Xiangli; Gao, Qinfeng; Wang, Fang

2017-01-01

Using net enclosures in an earthen pond, we established three culture treatments with the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus and the Chinese white shrimp Fenneropenaeus chinensis: monoculture of sea cucumbers (C), monoculture of shrimp (S), and co-culture of the two species (CS). We measured levels of suspended particulate matter in the water column; total organic matter, total organic carbon, total nitrogen, and carbon/nitrogen ratios in both settling particles and the sediment; and chlorophyll a levels in the sediment. We then compared these variables between the three treatments. We also examined growth, survival, and yield of the two species in the different treatments. From June to September, the mean monthly suspended particulate matter sedimentation rates in the CS and S treatments were significantly ( P<0.05) greater than those in the C treatment. From August to November, the mean monthly total organic matter, total organic carbon, total nitrogen, and chlorophyll a contents in the sediment in the CS and S treatments were significantly ( P <0.05) greater than those in the C treatment. Final wet weight, specific growth rate, survival rate, and total yield of sea cucumbers in co-culture were all significantly greater than those of sea cucumbers in monoculture. There were no significant differences among any of these variables for shrimp reared in the two systems. The bioturbation of the sediment and fecal production of the shrimp likely supplied natural food for the sea cucumbers. Co-culture of the two species is a viable option for increasing yield per unit area, maximizing use of the water body, and diversifying crop production.

Hydrological state of the Large Aral Sea in the fall season of 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izhitskiy, Alexander; Zavialov, Peter

2014-05-01

We report here the results of the latest expedition of the Shirshov Institute to the Aral Sea. The survey encompassed 8 field days in October-November, 2013. Direct measurements of thermohaline characteristics and water currents were conducted in the western basin of the Large Aral Sea during the expedition. Vertical profiles of temperature and salinity were obtained using a CTD profiler at 9 stations, situated on two cross-sections of the western basin. Four mooring stations equipped with current meters, as well as pressure gauges, were deployed for 4-6 days on the slopes of the deepest portion of the western basin. A portable automatic meteorological station, continuously recording the variability of wind and principal meteorological parameters, was installed near the mooring sites. Analysis of the current measurements data along with the meteorological data records demonstrated the current velocity and level anomalies responded energetically to winds. Correlation analysis of the velocity series versus the wind stress allowed to quantify the response of the system to the wind forcing. Together with the similar results of more earlier surveys, recently collected data shows that the mean surface circulation of the western basin remains anti-cyclonic under the predominant winds. Character of the interannual variability of salinity values in the Aral Sea water manifested increase in the surface layer during last 5 years. On the other hand, salinity values in the bottom layer appear to be decreased due to ceasing of the influence of the interbasin water exchange since 2010. Water level of the Large Aral Sea is still falling. Assessment of the on-going changes holds promise to help predicting the subsequent state of the Aral Sea region.

Near-field sea-level variability in northwest Europe and ice sheet stability during the last interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, A. J.; Barlow, N. L. M.; Busschers, F. S.; Cohen, K. M.; Gehrels, W. R.; Wake, L. M.

2015-10-01

Global sea level during the Last Interglacial (LIG, Marine Isotope Sub-stage 5e) peaked between c. 5.5 and 9 m above present, implying significant melt from Greenland and Antarctica. Relative sea level (RSL) observations from several far- and intermediate-field sites suggest abrupt fluctuations or jumps in RSL during the LIG highstand that require one or more episodes of ice-sheet collapse and regrowth. Such events should be manifest as unique sea-level fingerprints, recorded in far-, intermediate- and near-field sites depending on the source(s) of ice-mass change involved. To date, though, no coherent evidence of such fluctuations has been reported from near-field RSL studies in northwest Europe. This is an important problem because RSL fluctuations during the LIG are portrayed as warning signs for how polar ice sheets may behave in a future, warmer than present, world. Here we review the evidence for RSL change during the LIG using stratigraphic data from the best resolved highstand records that exist in the near-field of northwest Europe, from a range of settings that include lagoonal, shallow marine, tidal flat, salt marsh and brackish-water fluviatile environments. Consideration of previously published stratigraphic records from two sites in the Eemian coastal-marine embayment that existed in the central Netherlands, yields no clear indications for abrupt RSL change during the attainment of the near-field highstand. Nor do we find any such indications common to other records from countries bordering the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the White Sea. Two modelling experiments that explore the global signal of hypothetical sea-level oscillations caused by partial collapse and regrowth of either the Greenland or Antarctic LIG ice-sheet, show that the North Sea region is relatively insensitive to mass changes sourced from Greenland but should clearly register events with an Antarctic origin, especially those that occur late in the LIG. The lack of evidence for abrupt sea-level fluctuations at this time in northwest Europe concurs with a lack of clear near-field evidence for ice sheet collapse.

The timing of Mediterranean sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level and African monsoon changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, Katharine; Grimm, Rosina; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Marino, Gianluca; Rohling, Eelco

2016-04-01

The periodic deposition of organic rich layers or 'sapropels' in eastern Mediterranean sediments can be linked to orbital-driven changes in the strength and location of (east) African monsoon precipitation. Sapropels are therefore an extremely useful tool for establishing orbital chronologies, and for providing insights about African monsoon variability on long timescales. However, the link between sapropel formation, insolation variations, and African monsoon 'maxima' is not straightforward because other processes (notably, sea-level rise) may have contributed to their deposition, and because there are uncertainties about monsoon-sapropel phase relationships. For example, different phasings are observed between Holocene and early Pleistocene sapropels, and between proxy records and model simulations. To address these issues, we have established geochemical and ice-volume-corrected planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope records for sapropels S1, S3, S4, and S5 in core LC21 from the southern Aegean Sea. The records have a radiometrically constrained chronology that has already been synchronised with the Red Sea relative sea-level record, and this allows us to examine in detail the timing of sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level, and African monsoon changes. Our records suggest that the onset of sapropel deposition and monsoon run-off was near synchronous, yet insolation-sapropel/monsoon phasings varied, whereby monsoon/sapropel onset was relatively delayed (with respect to insolation maxima) after glacial terminations. We suggest that large meltwater discharges into the North Atlantic modified the timing of sapropel deposition by delaying the timing of peak African monsoon run-off. Hence, the previous assumption of a systematic 3-kyr lag between insolation maxima and sapropel midpoints may lead to overestimated insolation-sapropel phasings. We also surmise that both monsoon run-off and sea-level rise were important buoyancy-forcing mechanisms for the studied sapropels, and their relative influences differed per sapropel case. For instance, sea-level rise was clearly important for sapropel S1, whereas monsoon forcing was likely more important for sapropel S5.

Understanding Sea Level Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Benjamin F.

2004-01-01

Today more than 100 million people worldwide live on coastlines within one meter of mean sea level; any short-term or long-term sea level change relative to vertical ground motion is of great societal and economic concern. As palm-environment and historical data have clearly indicated the existence and prevalence of such changes in the past, new scientific information regarding to the nature and causes and a prediction capability are of utmost importance for the future. The 10-20 cm global sea-level rise recorded over the last century has been broadly attributed to two effects: (1) the steric effect (thermal expansion and salinity-density compensation of sea water) following global climate; (2) mass-budget changes due to a number of competing geophysical and hydrological processes in the Earth-atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere system, including water exchange from polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers to the ocean, atmospheric water vapor and land hydrological variations, and anthropogenic effects such as water impoundment in artificial reservoirs and extraction of groundwater, all superimposed on the vertical motions of solid Earth due to tectonics, rebound of the mantle from past and present deglaciation, and other local ground motions. As remote-sensing tools, a number of space geodetic measurements of sea surface topography (e.g., TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason), ice mass (e.g., ICESat), time-variable gravity (e.g. GRACE), and ground motions (SLR, VLBI, GPS, InSAR, Laser altimetry, etc.) become directly relevant. Understanding sea level changes "anywhere, anytime" in a well-defined terrestrial reference frame in terms of climate change and interactions among ice masses, oceans, and the solid Earth, and being able to predict them, emerge as one of the scientific challenges in the Solid Earth Science Working Group (SESWG, 2003) conclusions.

Development 3D model of adaptation of the Azerbaijan coastal zone at the various levels of Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mammadov, Ramiz

2013-04-01

The most characteristic feature of the Caspian Sea which difference it on relation other seas is its periodical fluctuating in its level. In many coastal regions of the world the problem of influence of change of a sea level on activities of the human is a problem of the long-term future, but in region of Caspian Sea, especially in its Azerbaijan sector, it is already actual. Also experience accumulated here, can be use at the decision of problems of optimization of wildlife management in conditions of significant change of a sea level as model of potential consequences of warming of a climate. Changeableness of the level of the Caspian sea over many years can be observed better on the basis of natural observations, a systematic basis of which has been put by the academician E. Lents in 1830 year in Baku coastal line. According these data in 1882 the average level has reached its level -25.2 m. the highest point over the observations, i.e. by 1.8 m. higher than today's level. The average level over 1830-1930 was about -25.83 m. In 1960 some stabilization in the level, about 28,4 meters, in 1970 was a sharp drop, in 1977 - sharp drop reached -29.00 rn. The drop over the whole period of observations totaled 3.8 m within diapason -25.2 -29.0 m. In 1978 the level of the sea began to increase and in 1995 its average yearly mark reach -26,62 rn. Intensiveness of the rise of the level ever that period totaled in average about 14 cm per year. As a result of this rise of a sea level about 800 km2 of a coastal zone it has been flooded, the ecological situation has worsened, and there were ecological refugees. The damage to a coastal zone of Azerbaijan was 2 billion USA dollars. Caspian sea also has within-year (seasonal) variability equal 32 sm and sleeve and pileup change of level. Its estimate in Azerbaijan coastal zone is 0.8-1.0 m. In the coastal zone also necessary take into height of the wave which in these coasts can be 3.0 m height. All these means that in the coastal areas at hydraulic engineering projects the sea level should be considered as multistage process, what we have considered by development of adaptation of a coastal zone The exact three-dimensional map of a coastal zone has been created. For different scenario sea levels, or example, -30.0; -29.0; -28.0; -27.0; -26.0; -25.0 and -24.0 exact coastal lines have been certain. Further maps of a vegetative cover, ground, social and economic and ecological conditions have been developed for different level and respective alterations are certain. More vulnerable coastal zone, flooded area and socio-economic damage were estimated.

Interannual variability in global mean sea level estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles

DOE PAGES

Fasullo, John T.; Nerem, Robert S.

2016-10-31

To better understand global mean sea level (GMSL) as an indicator of climate variability and change, contributions to its interannual variation are quantified in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. Consistent with expectations, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to exert a strong influence due to variability in rainfall over land (PL) and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Other important contributors include changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and precipitable water (PW). The temporal evolution of individual contributing terms is documented. The magnitude of peak GMSL anomalies associated with ENSO generally are of themore » order of 0.5 mm·K -1 with significant inter-event variability, with a standard deviation (σ) that is about half as large The results underscore the exceptional rarity of the 2010/2011 La Niña-related GMSL drop and estimate the frequency of such an event to be about only once in every 75 years. In addition to ENSO, major volcanic eruptions are found to be a key driver of interannual variability. Associated GMSL variability contrasts with that of ENSO as TWS and PW anomalies initially offset the drop due to OHC reductions but short-lived relative to them. Furthermore, responses up to 25 mm are estimated for the largest eruptions of the Last Millennium.« less

Interannual variability in global mean sea level estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasullo, John T.; Nerem, Robert S.

To better understand global mean sea level (GMSL) as an indicator of climate variability and change, contributions to its interannual variation are quantified in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. Consistent with expectations, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to exert a strong influence due to variability in rainfall over land (PL) and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Other important contributors include changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and precipitable water (PW). The temporal evolution of individual contributing terms is documented. The magnitude of peak GMSL anomalies associated with ENSO generally are of themore » order of 0.5 mm·K -1 with significant inter-event variability, with a standard deviation (σ) that is about half as large The results underscore the exceptional rarity of the 2010/2011 La Niña-related GMSL drop and estimate the frequency of such an event to be about only once in every 75 years. In addition to ENSO, major volcanic eruptions are found to be a key driver of interannual variability. Associated GMSL variability contrasts with that of ENSO as TWS and PW anomalies initially offset the drop due to OHC reductions but short-lived relative to them. Furthermore, responses up to 25 mm are estimated for the largest eruptions of the Last Millennium.« less

The Holocene palaeogeography and relative sea level for two tidal basins of the German North Sea coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bungenstock, Friederike; Wartenberg, Wolfram; Mauz, Barbara; Freund, Holger; Frechen, Manfred; Weerts, Henk J. T.; Berner, Heinrich

2014-05-01

The response of coasts to global sea-level rise is highly variable. Knowledge of driving coastal parameters alongside the regional sea-level history is therefore indispensable when the response to global sea-level rise is to be assessed. Here, we study the Holocene relative sea-level of the south coast of the North Sea which is controlled by a number of very local parameters, as well as by regional glacio-isostatic adjustments. It is therefore crucial to restrict the data acquisition and evaluation to small coastal sections, ideally to single tidal basins, to minimize the sources of uncertainties (Bungenstock & Weerts 2010, 2012). We present data from two tidal basins, Langeoog and Jade Bay. For Langeoog a database derived from 600 cores, 68 km of Boomer seismic data, 33 radiocarbon ages and 8 OSL dates is available. (Bungenstock & Schäfer 2009, Mauz & Bungenstock 2007). For the Jade bay, the database comprises sedimentary markers, pollen and macro remains derived from 68 cores. The sedentary chronology is based on 54 radiocarbon ages and pollen constraints (Wartenberg & Freund 2011, Wartenberg et al. 2013). For both tidal basins the sedimentological record was interpreted in terms of the local paleogeographical development since about 7000 cal BP and its influence on the local relative sea-level curve. While the trend of the relative sea level is similar for both tidal basins, it shows a different altitude. The timing of the main marine transgression within the Langeoog area takes place ~3000 cal. BP whereas the sedimentological record of the Jade Bay shows two prominent transgressions, one for ~5000 cal. BP and one for ~3000 cal. BP. The Langeoog palaeo-environment is continuously characterised by marine influence. Within the Jade Bay two different palaeo-environments could be identified, documenting that from the West to the centre the landscape development in the Jade Bay was drainage driven feeding the associated fen peat with minerogenic water but being autonomous from isochronic relative sea-level. This all shows the importance to understand the differences of local landscape and depositional developments for a reliable interpretation of sea-level data. References Bungenstock, F. & Schäfer, A. (2009): The Holocene relative sea-level curve for the tidal basin of the barrier island Langeoog, German Bight, Southern North Sea. - Global and Planetary Change 66: 34-51. Bungenstock, F. & Weerts, H.J.T. (2011): The high-resolution Holocene sea-level curve for Nothwest Germany: global signals, local effects or data-artefacts? - International Journal of Earth Sciences 99: 1687-1706. Bungenstock, F. & Weerts, H.J.T. (2012): Holocene relative sea-level curves for the German North Sea coast. International Journal of Earth Sciences. ? - International Journal of Earth Sciences 101:1083-1099. Mauz, B. & Bungenstock, F. (2007):. How to reconstruct trends of late Holocene relative sea level: A new approach using tidal flat clastic sediments and optical dating. Marine Geology 237: 225-237. Wartenberg, W. & Freund, H. (2011): Late Pleistocene and Holocene sedimentary record within the Jade Bay, Lower Saxony, Northwest Germany - New aspects for the palaeoecological record. - Quaternary International:1-11. Wartenberg, W., Vött, A., Freund, H. Hadler, H., Frechen, M., Willershäuser, T., Schnaidt, S., Fischer, P. & Obrocki, L. (2013): Evidence of isochronic transgressive surfaces within the Jade Bay tidal flfl at area, southern German North Sea coast - Holocene event horizons of regional interest. - Zeitschrift für Geomorphologi, Supplementary Issue. DOI: 10.1127/0372-8854/2013/S-00150

Adapting to rates versus amounts of climate change: a case of adaptation to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shayegh, Soheil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

2016-10-01

Adaptation is the process of adjusting to climate change in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities associated with it. Most adaptation strategies are designed to adjust to a new climate state. However, despite our best efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, climate is likely to continue changing far into the future. Here, we show how considering rates of change affects the projected optimal adaptation strategy. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal investment in the face of continued sea-level rise, presenting a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among physical and economic factors governing coastal development decisions such as rate of sea-level rise, land slope, discount rate, and depreciation rate. This model shows that the determination of optimal investment strategies depends on taking into account future rates of sea-level rise, as well as social and political constraints. This general approach also applies to the development of improved strategies to adapt to ongoing trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Adaptation to some amount of change instead of adaptation to ongoing rates of change may produce inaccurate estimates of damages to the social systems and their ability to respond to external pressures.

The color of sea level: Importance of spatial variations in spectral shape for assessing the significance of trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Simon D. P.

2010-10-01

We investigate spatial variations in the shape of the spectrum of sea level variability based on a homogeneously sampled 12 year gridded altimeter data set. We present a method of plotting spectral information as color, focusing on periods between 2 and 24 weeks, which shows that significant spatial variations in the spectral shape exist and contain useful dynamical information. Using the Bayesian Information Criterion, we determine that, typically, a fifth-order autoregressive model is needed to capture the structure in the spectrum. Using this model, we show that statistical errors in fitted local trends range between less than 1 and more than 5 times of what would be calculated assuming "white" noise and that the time needed to detect a 1 mm/yr trend ranges between about 5 years and many decades. For global mean sea level, the statistical error reduces to 0.1 mm/yr over 12 years, with only 2 years needed to detect a 1 mm/yr trend. We find significant regional differences in trend from the global mean. The patterns of these regional differences are indicative of a sea level trend dominated by dynamical ocean processes over this period.

A Note on the Barotropic Response of Sea Level to Time-Dependent Wind Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Davidson, Roger A.

1995-01-01

This study examines the extent to which sea level variations at periods between 30 days and 1 year and spatial scales greater than 1000 km can be described by the wind- driven linear barotropic vorticity dynamics. The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric observations of sea level and the wind products of the National Meteorological Center are used as the database for the study. Each term of the linear barotropic vorticity equation was evaluated by averaging over regions of 10 deg x 10 deg. In most of the open ocean the result of the analysis suggests that the sea level variabilities at the scales considered cannot be fully described by the equation; the apparent net vorticity change is more than what can be explained by the local wind stress curl. In the few regions where the wind stress curl is strong enough to balance the vorticity budget, predominantly in the northeast Pacific and the southeast Pacific, the balance is basically achieved in terms of the time-dependent topographic Sverdrup relation, namely, the balance between the advection of the planetary vorticity plus the topography-induced vorticity and the forcing by the wind stress curl.

600 kyr of Hydrothermal Activity on the Cleft Segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, J. L.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Langmuir, C. H.; Costa, K.; McManus, J. F.; Katz, R. F.; Huybers, P. J.; Winckler, G.; Li, Y.

2017-12-01

Pressure fluctuations caused by glacially driven variations in sea level may modulate magmatic and hydrothermal output at submarine volcanic centers, with falling sea level driving increased volcanic activity. In turn, glacially paced changes in submarine volcanism could induce globally synchronous variations in the delivery of bioavailable iron and CO2 from mid-ocean ridges and thus provide solid-Earth feedbacks into the climate system. While evaluation of submarine volcanic output on orbital-timescales is technically challenging, near-ridge sediment cores hosting hydrothermal plume precipitates provide continuous, spatially integrated, and datable records to investigate the long-term behavior of hydrothermal systems. We will present new sedimentary records of hydrothermal variability spanning the past 600 kyr on the Cleft Segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge in the Northeast Pacific. As an intermediate spreading-rate ridge, the Juan de Fuca Ridge is hypothesized to be particularly sensitive to sea level forcing at the Milankovitch frequencies of Pleistocene glacial cycles. Thus, the new records can be used to examine the connection between sea level and hydrothermal activity over multiple glacial cycles. Hydrothermal input is determined from iron and copper, with a titanium-based correction for lithogenic contributions. Sedimentary fluxes are then constrained using excess thorium-230 and extraterrestrial helium-3 as constant flux proxies. Preliminary results indicate 10-fold changes in hydrothermal iron and copper fluxes over the past 600 kyr and suggest a quasiperiodic variability in hydrothermal deposition on 100 to 120 kyr cycles. Comparison of the Juan de Fuca record with model predictions for an intermediate spreading ridge forced by Pleistocene glacial cycles finds frequent coincidence between predicted positive anomalies in magmatic output and observed peaks in hydrothermal deposition. This work encourages the continued exploration of the relationship between glacial cycles and submarine volcanic activity.

Physical associations to spring phytoplankton biomass interannual variability in the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Hyde, Kimberly J. W.; Rebuck, Nathan D.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Kahru, Mati; Fogarty, Michael J.

2015-02-01

The continental shelf of the Northeast United States and Nova Scotia is a productive marine ecosystem that supports a robust biomass of living marine resources. Understanding marine ecosystem sensitivity to changes in the physical environment can start with the first-order response of phytoplankton (i.e., chlorophyll a), the base of the marine food web. However, the primary physical associations to the interannual variability of chlorophyll a in these waters are unclear. Here we used ocean color satellite measurements and identified the local and remote physical associations to interannual variability of spring surface chlorophyll a from 1998 to 2013. The highest interannual variability of chlorophyll a occurred in March and April on the northern flank of Georges Bank, the western Gulf of Maine, and Nantucket Shoals. Complex interactions between winter wind speed over the Shelf, local winter water levels, and the relative proportions of Atlantic versus Labrador Sea source waters entering the Gulf of Maine from the previous summer/fall were associated with the variability of March/April chlorophyll a in Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine. Sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity were not robust correlates to spring chlorophyll a. Surface nitrate in the winter was not a robust correlate to chlorophyll a or the physical variables in every case suggesting that nitrate limitation may not be the primary constraint on the interannual variability of the spring bloom throughout all regions. Generalized linear models suggest that we can resolve 88% of March chlorophyll a interannual variability in Georges Bank using lagged physical data.

Potential Influence of Arctic Sea Ice to the Inter-annual Variations of East Asian Spring Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xinxin; Wu, Zhiwei; Li, Yanjie

2016-04-01

Arctic sea ice (ASI) and its potential climatic impacts have received increasing attention during the past decades, yet the relevant mechanisms are far from being understood, particularly on how anomalous ASI affects climate in midlatitudes. The spring precipitation takes up as much as 30% of the annual total and has significant influences to agriculture in East Asia. Here, observed evidence and numerical experiment results manifest that the ASI variability in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea in preceding winter is intimately connected with interannual variations of the East Asian spring precipitation (EAP). The former can explain about 14% of the total variances of the latter. The ASI anomalies persist from winter through the ensuing spring and excite downstream tele-connections of a distinct Rossby wave train prevailing over the Eurasian continent. For the reduced ASI, such a wave train pattern is usually associated with an anomalous low pressure center over Mongolian Plateau, which accelerates the East Asian subtropical westerly jet. The intensified subtropical westerly jet, concurrent with lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, enhances the local convection and consequently favors rich spring precipitation over East Asia. For the excessive ASI, the situation tends to be opposite. Given that seasonal prediction of the EAP remains a challenging issue, the winter ASI variability may provide another potential predictability source besides El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Structural Uncertainty in Antarctic sea ice simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, D. P.

2016-12-01

The inability of the vast majority of historical climate model simulations to reproduce the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice has motivated many studies about the quality of the observational record, the role of natural variability versus forced changes, and the possibility of missing or inadequate forcings in the models (such as freshwater discharge from thinning ice shelves or an inadequate magnitude of stratospheric ozone depletion). In this presentation I will highlight another source of uncertainty that has received comparatively little attention: Structural uncertainty, that is, the systematic uncertainty in simulated sea ice trends that arises from model physics and mean-state biases. Using two large ensembles of experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), I will show that the model is predisposed towards producing negative Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979-present, and that this outcome is not simply because the model's decadal variability is out-of-synch with that in nature. In the "Tropical Pacific Pacemaker" ensemble, in which observed tropical Pacific SST anomalies are prescribed, the model produces very realistic atmospheric circulation trends over the Southern Ocean, yet the sea ice trend is negative in every ensemble member. However, if the ensemble-mean trend (commonly interpreted as the forced response) is removed, some ensemble members show a sea ice increase that is very similar to the observed. While this results does confirm the important role of natural variability, it also suggests a strong bias in the forced response. I will discuss the reasons for this systematic bias and explore possible remedies. This an important problem to solve because projections of 21st -Century changes in the Antarctic climate system (including ice sheet surface mass balance changes and related changes in the sea level budget) have a strong dependence on the mean state of and changes in the Antarctic sea ice cover. This problem is not unique to CESM, but is pervasive across CMIP5-class models.

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) for wind energy planning: Lessons from the United Kingdom and Germany

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phylip-Jones, J., E-mail: jonesjp@liverpool.ac.uk; Fischer, T.B., E-mail: fischer@liv.ac.uk

This paper reports on SEA applied in the wind energy sector in the UK and Germany. Based on a review of 18 SEAs, it is found that the quality of SEA documentation is variable, with over a third of them being deemed unsatisfactory. Furthermore, SEA processes are conducted to varying degrees of effectiveness, with scoping a strength but impact prediction and mitigation weaknesses. Generally speaking, the influence of SEA on German wind energy plan making was found to be low and the influence of SEA on UK plans deemed to be moderate. The German plans had a low influence mainlymore » because of a perceived high environmental performance of the underlying plans in the first instance. Substantive outcomes of SEA are not always clear and the influence of SEA on decision making is said to be limited in many cases. Finally, a lack of effective tiering between SEA and project level EIA is also observed. In addition, our findings echo some of the weaknesses of SEA practice found in previous studies of SEA effectiveness, including poor impact prediction and significance sections and a lack of detailed monitoring programmes for post plan implementation.« less

Fast ice in the Canadian Arctic: Climatology, Atmospheric Forcing and Relation to Bathymetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galley, R. J.; Barber, D. G.

2010-12-01

Mobile sea ice in the northern hemisphere has experienced significant reductions in both extent and thickness over the last thirty years, and global climate models agree that these decreases will continue. However, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) creates a much different icescape than in the central Arctic Ocean due to its distinctive topographic, bathymetric and climatological conditions. Of particular interest is the continued viability of landfast sea ice as a means of transportation and platform for transportation and hunting for the Canadian Inuit that reside in the region, as is the possibility of the Northwest Passage becoming a viable shipping lane in the future. Here we determine the climatological average landfast ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago over the last 27 years, we investigate variability and trends in these landfast ice conditions, and we attempt to elucidate the physical parameters conducive to landfast sea ice formation in sub-regions of the CAA during different times of the year. We use the Canadian Ice Service digital sea ice charts between 1983 and 2009 on a 2x2km grid to determine the sea ice concentration-by-type and whether the sea ice in a grid cell was landfast on a weekly, bi-weekly or monthly basis depending on the time of year. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) atmospheric data were used in this work, including air temperature, surface level pressure and wind speed and direction. The bathymetric data employed was from the International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean. Results indicate that the CAA sea ice regime is not climatologically analogous to the mobile sea ice of the central Arctic Ocean. The sea ice and the atmospheric and bathymetric properties that control the amount and timing of landfast sea ice within the CAA are regionally variable.

Multi-decadal storminess fluctuations of Black Sea due to North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsov, Sergey; Saprykina, Yana; Grigorieva, Victoria; Aydoǧan, Berna; Aydoǧan, Burak

2017-04-01

Storminess variability is of key importance for many marine applications, naval and coastal engineering. Studying the evolution of this phenomenon along with large scale atmospheric patterns and being able to predict them is crucial for in the context of rising sea level due to climate change what make the low-lying coasts in the Black Sea to become increasingly vulnerable to marine hazards. The aim of this work is to clarify the trends, statistics and reasons of variations of storminess in dependence of such climatic characteristic as NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation Index). The analysis of Black Sea storminess activity was performed on the base of visual wave observations (Voluntary Observing Ship or VOS) for the period 1970-2011. Annual means and maximum heights of wind-driven seas and swell waves averaging over whole Black Sea area were investigated separately. The both wind-driven seas and swell demonstrate the decreasing in heights about 10% the same as their periods for the chosen time frame. Parametric spectral analysis was performed. The periods of wave height fluctuations for wind-driven seas and swell were shown to coincide with each other and with periods of low frequency fluctuation of NOA: 14 and 4 year respectively. Correlation coefficients of wave height and NOA were 0.3 for swell and 0.4 for wind-driven sea. Nonlinear regularities of NAO fluctuations were investigated using wavelet and spavlet (spectra of modules of wavelet coefficients) analyses. Their influence on variability of storminess in Black Sea is discussed. The reported study was funded by RFBR (project No. 16-55-76002 ERA_a) and by TUBITAK (project No. 116M061) in frame of BS STEMA project.

More than 70 years of continuous sea level records on the Santander Bay.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavín, Alicia; Tel, Elena; Molinero, Joaquin; Rodriguez, Carmen

2017-04-01

The knowledge of sea level height is important for many different sectors as navigation, transport, building infrastructures, tourism, or maritime sports, between others. Tides are mainly composed of an astronomical part and a meteorological one. Sometimes, their joined action is the responsible of extreme behaviors in the sea level. Influence of pressure differences, as well as related winds, is important in the behavior of sea level to analyze. The first system for reading the sea level was a tide board attached at the pier. In Spain the first modern tide gauge was installed in the Port of Alicante, Mediterranean Sea, in 1873 depending of the National Geographic Institute (IGN). Just the following year, a similar tide gauge was installed at the entrance of the Santander Bay. "La Magdalena" tide gauge was working during two periods 1876-1928 and 1963-1975. Together with Cádiz, the IGN tide gauges were used to determinate the national datum for terrestrial cartography. The Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO) tide gauge network was initiated in 1943 with the installation of tide gauges along the Spanish coast. One of them was located in Santander and has been working since then. At the beginning it was a float tide gauge connected to a graphical continuous recorder. Nowadays, it also has a digital encoder and a remote connection that allow using the recorded data for operational purposes. Later a Radar system was added. This tide gauge is referred to the Tide Gauge Zero and also calibrated to a benchmark in order to have a unique reference. This high quality sea level information is required for international and regional research activities, as Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). In particular, long time series are widely used for climate change detection. The sea level long term variability studies require a very good quality data focus in the reference of the data along the whole period and also it will be more precisely if we can remove the crustal movements by monitoring the tide gauge benchmark. Increase in sea level detected in the Santander tide gauge is more than 2 mm/year. Annual and semi-annual cycles are detected in the monthly mean sea level. The amplitude of the annual cycle is 30 mm. and the semiannual 21 mm. Due to the good correlation between the NAO index and the monthly mean sea level we can assume that an important part of these cycles corresponds to the meteorological influence. The historical original records on paper are also digitalized images in order to avoid loses by paper degrading, facilitate the access to them, and in the future, keep a higher frequency record for systematic studies of extreme events.

The Solomon Sea eddy activity from a 1/36° regional model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djath, Bughsin; Babonneix, Antoine; Gourdeau, Lionel; Marin, Frédéric; Verron, Jacques

2013-04-01

In the South West Pacific, the Solomon Sea exhibits the highest levels of eddy kinetic energy but relatively little is known about the eddy activity in this region. This Sea is directly influenced by a monsoonal regime and ENSO variability, and occupies a strategical location as the Western Boundary Currents exiting it are known to feed the warm pool and to be the principal sources of the Equatorial UnderCurrent. During their transit in the Solomon Sea, meso-scale eddies are suspected to notably interact and influence these water masses. The goal of this study is to give an exhaustive description of this eddy activity. A dual approach, based both on altimetric data and high resolution modeling, has then been chosen for this purpose. First, an algorithm is applied on nearly 20 years of 1/3° x 1/3° gridded SLA maps (provided by the AVISO project). This allows eddies to be automatically detected and tracked, thus providing some basic eddy properties. The preliminary results show that two main and distinct types of eddies are detected. Eddies in the north-eastern part shows a variability associated with the mean structure, while those in the southern part are associated with generation/propagation processes. However, the resolution of the AVISO dataset is not very well suited to observe fine structures and to match with the numerous islands bordering the Solomon Sea. For this reason, we will confront these observations with the outputs of a 1/36° resolution realistic model of the Solomon Sea. The high resolution numerical model (1/36°) indeed permits to reproduce very fine scale features, such as eddies and filaments. The model is two-way embedded in a 1/12° regional model which is itself one-way embedded in the DRAKKAR 1/12° global model. The NEMO code is used as well as the AGRIF software for model nestings. Validation is realized by comparison with AVISO observations and available in situ data. In preparing the future wide-swath altimetric SWOT mission that is expected to provide observations of small-scale sea level variability, spectral analysis is performed from the 1/36° resolution realistic model in order to characterize the finer scale signals in the Solomon sea region. The preliminary SSH spectral analysis shows a k-4 slope, in good agreement with the suface quasigeostrophic (SQG) turbulence theory. Keywords: Solomon Sea; meso-scale activity; eddy detection, tracking and properties; wavenumber spectrum.

Wind waves climatology of the Southeast Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguirre, Catalina; Rutllant, José; Falvey, Mark

2017-04-01

The Southeast Pacific coast still lacks a high-resolution wave hindcast and a detailed description of its wave climatology. Since buoy wave measurements are particularly scarce along the coast of South America, a model hindcast forced with wind information derived from atmospheric Reanalysis seems an attractive way to generate a wave climatology in this poorly studied region, providing far better spatial and temporal coverage than can be achieved using observational data alone. Here, the climatology of wind waves over the Southeast Pacific is analyzed using a 32-year hindcast from the WaveWatch III model, complemented by satellite-derived Significant Wave Height (SWH) and buoy measurements for validation. Using partitioned spectral data, a regional climatology of wind sea and swell parameters was constructed. In general, the simulated SWH shows a good agreement with satellite and in-situ SWH measurements. The spatial pattern of SWH is clearly influenced by the meridional variation of mean surface wind speed, where the stronger winds over the Southern Ocean play a significant role generating higher waves at higher latitudes. Nevertheless, regional features are observed in the annual variability of SWH, which are associated with the existence of atmospheric coastal low-level jets off the coast of Peru and central Chile. In particular, the seasonal variation of these synoptic scale jets shows a direct relationship with the annual variability of SWH. Off the coast of Peru at 15°S the coastal low-level jet is strongest during austral winter, increasing the wind sea SWH. In contrast, off central Chile, there is an important increase of wind sea SWH during summer. The seasonal variation of the wind sea component leads to a contrasting seasonal variation of the total SWH at these locations: off Peru the coastal jet amplifies the annual variability of SWH, while off Central Chile the annual variability of SWH is suppressed by the presence of the coastal jet.

Mechanisms of the 40-70 Day Variability in the Yucatan Channel Volume Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, René M.; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Klees, Roland; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; Slobbe, D. Cornelis; van der Boog, Carine G.; Katsman, Caroline A.; Candy, Adam S.; Pietrzak, Julie D.; Zijlema, Marcel; James, Rebecca K.; Bouma, Tjeerd J.

2018-02-01

The Yucatan Channel connects the Caribbean Sea with the Gulf of Mexico and is the main outflow region of the Caribbean Sea. Moorings in the Yucatan Channel show high-frequent variability in kinetic energy (50-100 days) and transport (20-40 days), but the physical mechanisms controlling this variability are poorly understood. In this study, we show that the short-term variability in the Yucatan Channel transport has an upstream origin and arises from processes in the North Brazil Current. To establish this connection, we use data from altimetry and model output from several high resolution global models. A significant 40-70 day variability is found in the sea surface height in the North Brazil Current retroflection region with a propagation toward the Lesser Antilles. The frequency of variability is generated by intrinsic processes associated with the shedding of eddies, rather than by atmospheric forcing. This sea surface height variability is able to pass the Lesser Antilles, it propagates westward with the background ocean flow in the Caribbean Sea and finally affects the variability in the Yucatan Channel volume transport.

Influences of sediment redistribution on sea-level changes along the U.S. Atlantic margin since the mid-Pliocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.; Ferrier, K.; Austermann, J.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2017-12-01

The Orangeburg Scarp is a paleo-shoreline formed along the southeastern U.S. Atlantic coast during the mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; 3.3 - 2.9 Ma). The MPWP is a time of interest because it is often cited as an analog for modern climate and thus an important target for understanding sea-level responses to climate change. The present Orangeburg Scarp exhibits 40-meter variations in elevation along its length, implying that it has been warped since its formation, which complicates efforts to infer global ice volume at the MPWP. Previous studies have shown that the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography (DT) on sea level can explain a significant fraction of the observed variability in elevation along the Orangeburg Scarp. Here we build on these studies by using a gravitationally self-consistent ice age sea-level model to compute the effects of sediment loading and unloading on paleo-shoreline elevation since the mid-Pliocene. To constrain the sediment loading history in this region, we present a new compilation of erosion and deposition rates along the U.S. Atlantic margin, from which we generate a range of sediment redistribution scenarios since the MPWP. We simultaneously drive the sea-level model with these sediment redistribution histories and existing ice and dynamic topography histories. Our results show that sediment loading and unloading is capable of warping the elevation of this paleo-shoreline by 20 meters since its formation, similar in magnitude to the contributions from GIA and DT over the same time period. These results demonstrate that sediment redistribution can induce significant perturbations in sea-level markers from the MPWP, and thus accounting for its influence will improve reconstructions of sea level and global ice volume during the MPWP and perhaps other periods of relative ice age warmth.

Effects of Climate Change on Exposure to Coastal Flooding in Latin America and the Caribbean

PubMed Central

Reguero, Borja G.; Losada, Iñigo J.; Díaz-Simal, Pedro; Méndez, Fernando J.; Beck, Michael W.

2015-01-01

This study considers and compares several of the most important factors contributing to coastal flooding in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) while accounting for the variations of these factors with location and time. The study assesses the populations, the land areas and the built capital exposed at present and at the middle and end of the 21st century for a set of scenarios that include both climatic and non-climatic drivers. Climatic drivers include global mean sea level, natural modes of climate variability such as El Niño, natural subsidence, and extreme sea levels resulting from the combination of projected local sea-level rise, storm surges and wave setup. Population is the only human-related driver accounted for in the future. Without adaptation, more than 4 million inhabitants will be exposed to flooding from relative sea-level rise by the end of the century, assuming the 8.5 W m−2 trajectory of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), or RCP8.5. However, the contributions from El Niño events substantially raise the threat in several Pacific-coast countries of the region and sooner than previously anticipated. At the tropical Pacific coastlines, the exposure by the mid-century for an event similar to El Niño 1998 would be comparable to that of the RCP4.5 relative sea-level rise by the end of the century. Furthermore, more than 7.5 million inhabitants, 42,600 km2 and built capital valued at 334 billion USD are currently situated at elevations below the 100-year extreme sea level. With sea levels rising and the population increasing, it is estimated that more than 9 million inhabitants will be exposed by the end of the century for either of the RCPs considered. The spatial distribution of exposure and the comparison of scenarios and timeframes can serve as a guide in future adaptation and risk reduction policies in the region. PMID:26177285

An Analysis of the Beaufort Sea Thermohaline Structure and Variability, and Its Effects on Acoustic Propagation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

BEAUFORT SEA THERMOHALINE STRUCTURE AND VARIABILITY, AND ITS EFFECTS ON ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION by Annalise N. Pearson June 2016 Thesis...STRUCTURE AND VARIABILITY, AND ITS EFFECTS ON ACOUSTIC PROPAGATION 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Annalise N. Pearson 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION...public release; distribution is unlimited AN ANALYSIS OF THE BEAUFORT SEA THERMOHALINE STRUCTURE AND VARIABILITY, AND ITS EFFECTS ON ACOUSTIC

The hydro-climatic history of the Gulf of Cadiz throughout the last ~570 kyr from IODP 339 Site U1386

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaboth, Stefanie; de Boer, Bas; Bahr, Andrè; Zeeden, Christian; Lourens, Lucas

2016-04-01

Here we present the first continuous and high-resolution (~ 1 kyr) benthic δ18O record from IODP Site U1386 (Gulf of Cadiz, IODP Exp. 339) representing the last 570 kyr. We find distinct and periodic δ18O enrichment events overimposed on patterns of global ice volume change as inferred from the global mean δ18O signal (i.e. LR04). These events occur most prominently during glacials, and are characterized by a relative increase of up to 1‰. The observed glacial δ18O enrichment represents a striking difference to deep-sea benthic δ18O records worldwide but is not without precedent as similar δ18O variability can be observed in the planktic signal of the Red Sea (Sites KL11 and KL23). There, similar glacial δ18O enrichment events have not raised particular interest since their occurrence was attributed to sea level induced salinity increase within this virtually landlocked basin. Our results suggest that the glacial δ18O enrichment at Site U1386 present salinity and/or temperature variability related to changes in the position of the frontal zone between subpolar and subtropical water masses within the Gulf of Cadiz. Interestingly, the δ18O enrichments at Site U1386 strongly reflect precession and semi-precession patterns. Since similar patterns can be observed in the Red Sea isotopic records, we argue that part of the inferred sea level reconstructions are biased by a regional and precession controlled mechanism.

Synthesis of nearshore recovery following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill: sea otter liver pathology and survival in Western Prince William Sound, 2001 – 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ballachey, Brenda E.; Monson, Daniel H.; Kloecker, Kimberly A.; Esslinger, George G.; Mohr, F.C.; Lipscomb, T.P.; Murray, M.J.; Howlin, S.

2014-01-01

We examined livers and liver biopsies collected from captured sea otters in WPWS, 2001–2008, to determine whether indicators of liver health correlated with history of oil contamination from the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Sea otters captured in oiled areas had a significantly higher proportion of livers with gross pathological change, based on visual inspection at the time of capture, than those from unoiled areas. Of the 10 histopathology variables scored on liver biopsies, only two (vacuolar change and pigment) differed between animals from oiled and unoiled areas, and neither correlated with gross pathology scores. Vacuolar change indicates physiological disturbance, which is consistent with potential effects from oil exposure but also could be influenced by a number of other factors. We concluded that, as of 2008, some differences in liver health were evident between sea otters from oiled and unoiled areas; these differences were consistent with, but not specific to, effects that might be expected with sublethal exposure to lingering Exxon Valdez oil. We also quantified variation in survival of radiomarked sea otters within oiled areas of WPWS in relation to age, sex, body condition, selected blood serum chemistry variables, and histological scores indicative of liver health. Of the variables considered, only the serum enzyme aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and the ratio of serum proteins albumin and globulin (A/G) were correlated with survival, with higher levels of AST and lower levels of A/G associated with increased likelihood of mortality. High AST and low A/G both may be indicative of liver disease. Taken together, results reported here suggest that liver health of sea otters in oiled areas was slightly poorer than those from unoiled areas and, ifurther, that this may have translated to poorer survival through 2008, nearly 2 decades after the spill. More recently collected information indicated that mortality patterns and abundance had returned to pre-spill conditions between 2010 and 2013, suggesting that the effects that we detected through 2008 may have represented the end of effects related to exposure to lingering oil.

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron

2015-01-01

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.

2015-01-01

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

A cross-sectional study of differences in 6-min walk distance in healthy adults residing at high altitude versus sea level

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background We sought to determine if adult residents living at high altitude have developed sufficient adaptation to a hypoxic environment to match the functional capacity of a similar population at sea level. To test this hypothesis, we compared the 6-min walk test distance (6MWD) in 334 residents living at sea level vs. at high altitude. Methods We enrolled 168 healthy adults aged ≥35 years residing at sea level in Lima and 166 individuals residing at 3,825 m above sea level in Puno, Peru. Participants completed a 6-min walk test, answered a sociodemographics and clinical questionnaire, underwent spirometry, and a blood test. Results Average age was 54.0 vs. 53.8 years, 48% vs. 43% were male, average height was 155 vs. 158 cm, average blood oxygen saturation was 98% vs. 90%, and average resting heart rate was 67 vs. 72 beats/min in Lima vs. Puno. In multivariable regression, participants in Puno walked 47.6 m less (95% CI -81.7 to -13.6 m; p < 0.01) than those in Lima. Other variables besides age and height that were associated with 6MWD include change in heart rate (4.0 m per beats/min increase above resting heart rate; p < 0.001) and percent body fat (-1.4 m per % increase; p = 0.02). Conclusions The 6-min walk test predicted a lowered functional capacity among Andean high altitude vs. sea level natives at their altitude of residence, which could be explained by an incomplete adaptation or a protective mechanism favoring neuro- and cardioprotection over psychomotor activity. PMID:24484777

Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, T.W.; Krauss, K.W.; Conner, W.H.; From, A.S.

2010-01-01

Tidal freshwater forests in coastal regions of the southeastern United States are undergoing dieback and retreat from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. In many areas, tidal saltwater forests (mangroves) contrastingly are expanding landward in subtropical coastal reaches succeeding freshwater marsh and forest zones. Hydrological characteristics of these low-relief coastal forests in intertidal settings are dictated by the influence of tidal and freshwater forcing. In this paper, we describe the application of the Sea Level Over Proportional Elevation (SLOPE) model to predict coastal forest retreat and migration from projected sea-level rise based on a proxy relationship of saltmarsh/mangrove area and tidal range. The SLOPE model assumes that the sum area of saltmarsh/mangrove habitat along any given coastal reach is determined by the slope of the landform and vertical tide forcing. Model results indicated that saltmarsh and mangrove migration from sea-level rise will vary by county and watershed but greater in western Gulf States than in the eastern Gulf States where millions of hectares of coastal forest will be displaced over the next century with a near meter rise in relative sea level alone. Substantial losses of coastal forests will also occur in the eastern Gulf but mangrove forests in subtropical zones of Florida are expected to replace retreating freshwater forest and affect regional biodiversity. Accelerated global eustacy from climate change will compound the degree of predicted retreat and migration of coastal forests with expected implications for ecosystem management of State and Federal lands in the absence of adaptive coastal management.

Soccer activity profile of altitude versus sea-level natives during acclimatisation to 3600 m (ISA3600)

PubMed Central

Aughey, Robert J; Hammond, Kristal; Varley, Matthew C; Schmidt, Walter F; Bourdon, Pitre C; Buchheit, Martin; Simpson, Ben; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Kley, Marlen; Soria, Rudy; Sargent, Charli; Roach, Gregory D; Claros, Jesus C Jimenez; Wachsmuth, Nadine; Gore, Christopher J

2013-01-01

Objectives We investigated the effect of high altitude on the match activity profile of elite youth high altitude and sea level residents. Methods Twenty Sea Level (Australian) and 19 Altitude-resident (Bolivian) soccer players played five games, two near sea level (430 m) and three in La Paz (3600 m). Match activity profile was quantified via global positioning system with the peak 5 min period for distance ((D5peak)) and high velocity running (>4.17 m/s, HIVR5peak); as well as the 5 min period immediately subsequent to the peak for both distance (D5sub) and high-velocity running (HIVR5sub) identified using a rolling 5 min epoch. The games at 3600 m were compared with the average of the two near sea-level games. Results The total distance per minute was reduced by a small magnitude in the first match at altitude in both teams, without any change in low-velocity running. There were variable changes in HiVR, D5peak and HiVR5peak from match to match for each team. There were within-team reductions in D5peak in each game at altitude compared with those at near sea level, and this reduction was greater by a small magnitude in Australians than Bolivians in game 4. The effect of altitude on HiVR5peak was moderately lower in Australians compared with Bolivians in game 3. There was no clear difference in the effect of altitude on maximal accelerations between teams. Conclusions High altitude reduces the distance covered by elite youth soccer players during matches. Neither 13 days of acclimatisation nor lifelong residence at high altitude protects against detrimental effects of altitude on match activity profile. PMID:24282196

Correlated environmental corrections in TOPEX/POSEIDON, with a note on ionospheric accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zlotnicki, V.

1994-01-01

Estimates of the effectiveness of an altimetric correction, and interpretation of sea level variability as a response to atmospheric forcing, both depend upon assuming that residual errors in altimetric corrections are uncorrelated among themselves and with residual sea level, or knowing the correlations. Not surprisingly, many corrections are highly correlated since they involve atmospheric properties and the ocean surface's response to them. The full corrections (including their geographically varying time mean values), show correlations between electromagnetic bias (mostly the height of wind waves) and either atmospheric pressure or water vapor of -40%, and between atmospheric pressure and water vapor of 28%. In the more commonly used collinear differences (after removal of the geographically varying time mean), atmospheric pressure and wave height show a -30% correlation, atmospheric pressure and water vapor a -10% correlation, both pressure and water vapor a 7% correlation with residual sea level, and a bit surprisingly, ionospheric electron content and wave height a 15% correlation. Only the ocean tide is totally uncorrelated with other corrections or residual sea level. The effectiveness of three ionospheric corrections (TOPEX dual-frequency, a smoothed version of the TOPEX dual-frequency, and Doppler orbitography and radiopositioning integrated by satellite (DORIS) is also evaluated in terms of their reduction in variance of residual sea level. Smooth (90-200 km along-track) versions of the dual-frequency altimeter ionosphere perform best both globally and within 20 deg in latitude from the equator. The noise variance in the 1/s TOPEX inospheric samples is approximately (11 mm) squared, about the same as noise in the DORIS-based correction; however, the latter has its error over scales of order 10(exp 3) km. Within 20 deg of the equator, the DORIS-based correction adds (14 mm) squared to the residual sea level variance.

Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

2012-07-01

The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

Soccer activity profile of altitude versus sea-level natives during acclimatisation to 3600 m (ISA3600).

PubMed

Aughey, Robert J; Hammond, Kristal; Varley, Matthew C; Schmidt, Walter F; Bourdon, Pitre C; Buchheit, Martin; Simpson, Ben; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Kley, Marlen; Soria, Rudy; Sargent, Charli; Roach, Gregory D; Claros, Jesus C Jimenez; Wachsmuth, Nadine; Gore, Christopher J

2013-12-01

We investigated the effect of high altitude on the match activity profile of elite youth high altitude and sea level residents. Twenty Sea Level (Australian) and 19 Altitude-resident (Bolivian) soccer players played five games, two near sea level (430 m) and three in La Paz (3600 m). Match activity profile was quantified via global positioning system with the peak 5 min period for distance ((D₅(peak)) and high velocity running (>4.17 m/s, HIVR₅(peak)); as well as the 5 min period immediately subsequent to the peak for both distance (D₅(sub)) and high-velocity running (HIVR₅(sub)) identified using a rolling 5 min epoch. The games at 3600 m were compared with the average of the two near sea-level games. The total distance per minute was reduced by a small magnitude in the first match at altitude in both teams, without any change in low-velocity running. There were variable changes in HiVR, D₅(peak) and HiVR₅(peak) from match to match for each team. There were within-team reductions in D₅(peak) in each game at altitude compared with those at near sea level, and this reduction was greater by a small magnitude in Australians than Bolivians in game 4. The effect of altitude on HiVR₅(peak) was moderately lower in Australians compared with Bolivians in game 3. There was no clear difference in the effect of altitude on maximal accelerations between teams. High altitude reduces the distance covered by elite youth soccer players during matches. Neither 13 days of acclimatisation nor lifelong residence at high altitude protects against detrimental effects of altitude on match activity profile.

Interactions of ice sheet evolution, sea level and GIA in a region of complex Earth structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez, N. A.; Chan, N. H.; Latychev, K.; Pollard, D.; Powell, E. M.

2017-12-01

Constraining glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is challenging in Antarctica, where the solid Earth deformation, sea level changes and ice dynamics are strongly linked on all timescales. Furthermore, Earth structure beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet is characterized by significant lateral variability. A stable, thick craton exists in the east, while the west is underlain by a large continental rift system, with a relatively thin lithosphere and hot, low viscosity asthenosphere, as indicated by high resolution seismic tomography. This implies that in parts of the West Antarctic, the Earth's mantle may respond to surface loading on shorter than average (centennial, or even decadal) timescales. Accounting for lateral variations in viscoelastic Earth structure alters the timing and geometry of load-induced Earth deformation, which in turn impacts the timing and extent of the ice-sheet retreat via a sea-level feedback, as well as predictions of relative sea-level change and GIA. We explore the impact of laterally varying Earth structure on ice-sheet evolution, sea level change and Earth deformation in the Antarctic region since the Last Glacial Maximum using a newly developed coupled ice sheet - sea level model that incorporates 3-D variations in lithospheric thickness and mantle viscosity derived from recent seismic tomographic datasets. Our results focus on identifying the regions and time periods in which the incorporation of 3-D Earth structure is critical for accurate predictions of ice sheet evolution and interpretation of geological and geodetic observations. We also investigate the sensitivity to the regional Earth structure of the relative contributions to modern GIA predictions of Last Deglacial and more recent Holocene ice cover changes.

Friend or Foe: Variability in How Sea Ice Can Both Hinder and Enhance Phytoplankton Blooms Across the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohr, T.

2016-02-01

Globally, a suite of physical and biogeochemical controls govern the structure, size, and timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms. In the Southern Ocean, the introduction of seasonal sea ice provides an additional constraining factor. From a bottom-up perspective, a reduction in sea ice can both enhance bloom development by permitting greater levels of surface PAR uninhibited by ice and suppress a bloom when reduced fresh melt-water inputs and increased vulnerability to wind stress combine to create deeper mixed layers and decrease depth integrated light availability. Regions along the Western Antarctic Peninsula have already seen a contradictory response to reduced ice cover, with enhanced summertime chlorophyll concentrations in the South, and large declines to the North. This dichotomy is thought to arise from differences in the interannual mean sea ice state, with extensively ice covered regions benefiting from reduced coverage and more sparsely covered regions hindered by further reductions. The questions arises: 1) At what threshold does a reduction in sea ice transition from amplifying blooms to suppressing them? 2) How do additional environmental considerations such as nutrient availability and trophic interactions complicate this transition? Here, we combine remote sensing observations and in-situ data (from PAL LTER) with a hierarchy of 1-D water column and global general circulation (CESM) models to access the variability in how regional differences in mean ice state combine with other environmental forcings to dictate how interannual variability (or long term trends) in ice coverage will affect bloom structure, size and dynamics. In doing so we will gain a better understanding of how predicted changes in sea ice will effect Southern Ocean productivity, which of course will have important consequences in the global carbon cycle and sustainability of healthy marine ecosystems.

Assessing Northern Hemisphere Land-Atmosphere Hotspots Using Dynamical Adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, Anna; Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Xie, Shang-Ping

2017-04-01

Understanding the influence of soil moisture on surface air temperature (SAT) is made more challenging by large-scale, internal atmospheric variability present in the midlatitude summer atmosphere. In this study, dynamical adjustment is used to characterize and remove summer SAT variability associated with large-scale circulation patterns in the Community Earth System Model large ensemble (CESM-LE). The adjustment is performed over North America and Europe with two different circulation indicators: sea level pressure (SLP) and 500mb height (Z500). The removal of dynamical "noise" leaves residual SAT variability in the central U.S. and Mediterranean regions identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere interaction (e.g. Koster et al. 2004, Seneviratne et al. 2006). The residual SAT variability "signal" is not clearly related to modes of sea surface temperature (SST) variability, but is related to local soil moisture, evaporative fraction, and radiation availability. These local relationships suggest that residual SAT variability is representative of the aggregate land surface signal. SLP dynamical adjustment removes ˜15% more variability in the central U.S. hotspot region than Z500 dynamical adjustment. Similar amounts of variability are removed by SLP and Z500 in the Mediterranean region. Differences in SLP and Z500 signal magnitude in the central U.S. are likely due to the modification of SLP by local land surface conditions, while the proximity of European hotspots to the Mediterranean sea mitigates the land surface influence. Variations in the Z500 field more closely resemble large-scale midlatitude circulation patterns and therefore Z500 may be a more suitable circulation indicator for summer dynamical adjustment. Changes in the residual SAT variability signal under increased greenhouse gas forcing will also be explored.

EROD activity measured in flatfish from the area of the Sea Empress oil spill.

PubMed

Kirby, M F; Neall, P; Tylor, T

1999-05-01

Dab (Limanda limanda) and plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) were collected at five stations near to the site of the Sea Empress oil spill within two weeks of the incident and a further fourteen stations three months after the spillage. Ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity was determined in the livers of the specimens to determine whether induction could be detected. Statistically significant inter-site differences in EROD levels in both species were demonstrated. Elevated levels of EROD activity in dab were found at the two stations nearest to the incident up to three months after the spill but no clear relationship to putative contaminant levels was determined. EROD levels in plaice showed a generally similar pattern of induction as in dab. Correlation of EROD levels with other variables showed that sexual maturity had the greatest influence on dab during the study period. The plaice specimens were sexually immature and, therefore, did not demonstrate a corresponding relationship. It was concluded that, for EROD monitoring purposes, fish should be sampled during their sexually inactive phase and that close attention needs to be paid to other variables (depth, temperature, GSI, length, influential contaminants etc.) when interpreting the results.

Percolation blockage: A process that enables melt pond formation on first year Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polashenski, Chris; Golden, Kenneth M.; Perovich, Donald K.; Skyllingstad, Eric; Arnsten, Alexandra; Stwertka, Carolyn; Wright, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Melt pond formation atop Arctic sea ice is a primary control of shortwave energy balance in the Arctic Ocean. During late spring and summer, the ponds determine sea ice albedo and how much solar radiation is transmitted into the upper ocean through the sea ice. The initial formation of ponds requires that melt water be retained above sea level on the ice surface. Both theory and observations, however, show that first year sea ice is so highly porous prior to the formation of melt ponds that multiday retention of water above hydraulic equilibrium should not be possible. Here we present results of percolation experiments that identify and directly demonstrate a mechanism allowing melt pond formation. The infiltration of fresh water into the pore structure of sea ice is responsible for blocking percolation pathways with ice, sealing the ice against water percolation, and allowing water to pool above sea level. We demonstrate that this mechanism is dependent on fresh water availability, known to be predominantly from snowmelt, and ice temperature at melt onset. We argue that the blockage process has the potential to exert significant control over interannual variability in ice albedo. Finally, we suggest that incorporating the mechanism into models would enhance their physical realism. Full treatment would be complex. We provide a simple temperature threshold-based scheme that may be used to incorporate percolation blockage behavior into existing model frameworks.

The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Florida's Everglades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2005-12-01

Global warming and the resulting melting of polar ice sheets could increase global sea levels significantly. Some studies have predicted mean sea level increases in the order of six inches to one foot in the next 25 to 50 years. This could have severe irreversible impacts on low-lying areas of Florida's Everglades. The key objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of a one foot sea level rise on Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) nesting areas within the Everglades National Park (ENP). A regional-scale hydrologic model is used to assess the sensitivities of this sea-level rise scenario. Florida's Everglades supports a unique ecosystem. At present, about 50 percent of this unique ecosystem has been lost due to urbanization and farming. Today, the water flow in the remnant Everglades is also regulated to meet a variety of competing environmental, water-supply and flood-control needs. A 30-year, eight billion dollar (1999 estimate) project has been initiated to improve Everglades' water flows. The expected benefits of this restoration project will be short-lived if the predicted sea level rise causes severe impacts on the environmentally sensitive areas of the Everglades. Florida's Everglades is home to many threatened and endangered species of wildlife. The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow population in the ENP is one such species that is currently listed as endangered. Since these birds build their nests close to the ground surface (the base of the nest is approximately six inches from the ground surface), they are directly affected by any sea level induced ponding depth, frequency or duration change. Therefore, the CSSS population serves as a good indicator species for evaluating the negative impacts of sea level rise on the Everglades' ecosystem. The impact of sea level rise on the CSSS habitat is evaluated using the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) developed by the South Florida Water Management District. The RSM is an implicit, finite-volume, continuous, distributed, and integrated surface-water and ground-water model. It can simulate one-dimensional canal/stream flow and two-dimensional overland and groundwater flow in arbitrarily shaped areas using a variable triangular mesh. The overland and groundwater flow components are fully coupled in the RSM for a more realistic representation of runoff generation.

Land Sea Level Difference Impacts on Socio-Hydrological System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, K.; Yu, D. J.; Oh, W. S.; Sangwan, N.

2016-12-01

Allowing moderate shocks can be a new solution that helps to build adaptive capacity in society is a rising issue. In Social-Ecological field, Carpenter et al. (2015) suggested that exposure to short-term variability leads to long term resilience by enlarging safe operating space (SOS). The SOS refers to the boundary of favorable state that ecosystem can maintain resilience without imposing certain conditions (Carpenter et al. 2015). Our work is motivated by defining SOS in socio-hydrological system(SHS) because it can be an alternative way for flood management beyond optimized or robust flood control. In this context, large flood events that make system to cross the SOS should be fully managed, but frequent small floods need to be allowed if the system is located in SOS. Especially, land sea level change is critical factor to change flood resilience since it is one of the most substantial disturbance that changes the entire boundary of SOS. In order to have broader perspective of vulnerability and resilience of the coastal region, it is crucial to understand the land sea level dynamics changed with human activities and natural variances.The risk of land sea level change has been researched , but most of these researches have focused on explain cause and effect of land sea level change, paying little attention to its dynamics interacts with human activities. Thus, an objective of this research is to study dynamics of human work, land sea level change and resilience to flood with SOS approach. Especially, we focus on the case in Ganges-Brahmaputra, Bangladesh where has high vulnerability to flood, and is faced with relatively rapid land sea level change problem. To acheive the goal, this study will develop a stylized model by extending the human - flood interaction model combined with relative sea level difference equation. The model describes the dynamics of flood protection system which is changed by SHS and land sea level chage. we will focus on the aggradation and human compaction which are highly chaged by human-flood interactions. Carpenter, S. R., W. A. Brock, C. Folke, E. H. van Nes, and M. Scheffer. 2015. Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(46):14384-14389.

Do we have to take an acceleration of sea level rise into account?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dillingh, D.; Baart, F.; de Ronde, J.

2012-04-01

In view of preservation of safety against inundation and of the many values and functions of the coastal zone, coastal retreat is no longer acceptable. That is why it was decided to maintain the Dutch coastline on its position in 1990. Later the preservation concept was extended to the Dutch coastal foundation, which is the area that encompasses all dune area's and hard sea defences and reaches seawards until the 20m depth contour line. Present Dutch coastal policy is to grow with sea level by means of sand nourishments. A main issue for the planning of sand nourishments is the rate of sea level rise, because that is the main parameter for the volume of the sand needed. The question is than relevant if we already have to take into account an acceleration of sea level rise. Six stations with long water level records, well spread along the Dutch coast, were analysed. Correction of the measured data was considered necessary for an adaptation of the NAP in 2005 as a consequence of movements of the top of the pleistoceen, on which the NAP bench marks have been founded, and for the 18.6 year (nodal) cycle in the time series of yearly mean sea levels. It has been concluded that along the Dutch coast no significant acceleration of sea level rise could be detected yet. Over the last 120 years sea level rose with an average speed of 19 cm per century relative to NAP (the Dutch ordnance datum). Time series shorter than about 50 years showed less robust estimates of sea level rise. Future sea level rise also needs consideration in view of the estimate of future sand nourishment volumes. Scenario's for sea level rise have been derived for the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 1990 by the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) in 2006 for the Dutch situation. Plausible curves have been drawn from 1990 tangent to the linear regression line in 1990 and forced through the high and low scenario projections for 2050 and 2100. These curves show discrepancies with measurements of the last decade, particularly for the high scenario. Dutch design levels for coastal water defence structures (dikes and dunes) are based on extreme value statistics of long time series of high water levels. These design levels have typically return periods of 2000, 4000 and 10.000 years, depending on the importance of the protected dike ring. The last statistical analysis for the update of the design levels refers to the sea level situation of 1985. According to the Water Act Dutch design levels must be tested periodically (every 6 years). Due to sea level rise and tidal changes the design levels are corrected for the rise of the mean high waters from 1985 until the end of the testing period under consideration. This demands a tailoring approach for different regions or locations instead of a national average as for coastal preservation. Runs with climate models and coupled hydrodynamic models in the framework of the Essence project and the Delta Committee 2008 showed no indication for a change in the statistics of extreme storm surge levels. For the estimation of sea level rise over the last 120 years a linear regression gives the most robust estimate. Showing decadal variability needs more sophisticated models. For the last update of the design levels the elegant Whittaker smoother has been applied. Dutch policy prescribes to account for a future sea level rise of 60 cm per century for the design of new dikes or dike reinforcements and 85 cm per century for the long term (200 years) allocation of space for future reinforcements, in agreement with the KNMI'06 scenario's for sea level rise (central value and upper limit).

Ross sea ice motion, area flux, and deformation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

kwok, Ron

2005-01-01

The sea ice motion, area export, and deformation of the Ross Sea ice cover are examined with satellite passive microwave and RADARSAT observations. The record of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, from 1998 and 2000, allows the estimation of the variability of ice deformation at the small scale (10 km) and to assess the quality of the longer record of passive microwave ice motion. Daily and subdaily deformation fields and RADARSAT imagery highlight the variability of motion and deformation in the Ross Sea. With the passive microwave ice motion, the area export at a flux gate positioned between Cape Adare and Land Bay is estimated. Between 1992 and 2003, a positive trend can be seen in the winter (March-November) ice area flux that has a mean of 990 x 103 km2 and ranges from a low of 600 x 103 km2 in 1992 to a peak of 1600 x 103 km2 in 2001. In the mean, the southern Ross Sea produces almost twice its own area of sea ice during the winter. Cross-gate sea level pressure (SLP) gradients explain 60% of the variance in the ice area flux. A positive trend in this gradient, from reanalysis products, suggests a 'spinup' of the Ross Sea Gyre over the past 12 yr. In both the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 surface pressure fields, longer-term trends in this gradient and mean SLP between 1979 and 2002 are explored along with positive anomalies in the monthly cross-gate SLP gradient associated with the positive phase of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation.

Long-Term Monitoring of Regional Sea Surface Height Variability Using High-Resolution Satellite Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, A. E.; Crout, R. L.

2017-12-01

Shallow water altimetry is an emerging field that in recent years has rapidly gained attention for both the numerous applications it can offer to the oceanographic community (e.g. assessment of climate change impacts to the coastal zone; quantification of sea state etc.) and, depending on the altimeter used, for the wealth of available historical data that can be employed for climatological studies. In this study we focus on the long-term analysis of regional sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) variability over the mid and outer shelf (≥ 16 km from the coast) for 18 selected coastal altimeter tracks located on the east coast of the US and Asia for a period of eight years (294 passes from July 2008 to July 2016) using Jason-2 20 Hz altimeter data from the L2 AVISO-PISTACH experimental products. After implementing geophysical corrections to the raw altimeter range, signal noise in the individual SSH passes was reduced by applying a median filter followed by a 60-point (18 km) low-pass filter as in Birol and Delebeque (2014). Since individual altimeter passes did not cease to collect data at the same distance from the coastline, a nearest-point-to-land (NPTL) was determined for each track for statistical analysis of the data. NPTL time series and SSHA envelopes, computed by subtracting mean SSHAs from individual passes, were used for the analysis. A comparison of wind and water level gauge data to a US east coast track reveals correlation between SSHA and winds and a relationship to subtidal water level frequencies. Time series of NPTL for all tracks show intra-annual and inter and intra-seasonal variability, with higher and lower water levels linked to seasons. Lastly, envelope plots display higher SSHA variability over the mid shelf than the outer shelf, revealing the location and magnitude (up to 0.5 m water level differences) of setup and set down occurrences. Various products derived from the analysis that are useful for oceanographic operations, including water level change percentages and width of coastal boundary layers, are discussed.

Three modes of interdecadal trends in sea surface temperature and sea surface height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M.

2013-12-01

It might be thought that sea surface height and sea surface temperature would be tightly related. We show that this is not necessarily the case on a global scale. We analysed this relationship in a suite of coupled climate models run under 1860 forcing conditions. The models are low-resolution variants of the GFDL Earth System Model, reported in Galbraith et al. (J. Clim. 2011). 1. Correlated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode corresponds to opening and closing of convective chimneys in the Southern Ocean. As the Southern Ocean destratifies, sea ice formation is suppressed during the winter and more heat is taken up during the summer. This mode of variability is highly correlated with changes in the top of the atmosphere radiative budget and weakly correlated with changes in the deep ocean circulation. 2. Uncorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode of variability is associated with interdecadal variabliity in tropical winds. Changes in the advective flux of heat to the surface ocean play a critical role in driving these changes, which also result in significant local changes in sea level. Changes sea ice over the Southern Ocean still result in changes in solar absorption, but these are now largely cancelled by changes in outgoing longwave radiation. 3. Anticorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperatures. By varying the lateral diffusion coefficient in the ocean model, we are able to enhance and suppress convection in the Southern and Northern Pacific Oceans. Increasing the lateral diffusion coefficients shifts the balance sources of deep water away from the warm salty deep water of the North Atlantic and towards cold fresh deep water from the other two regions. As a result, even though the planet as a whole warms, the deep ocean cools and sea level falls, with changes of order 30 cm over 500 years. The increase in solar absorption in polar regions is more than compensated by an increase in outgoing longwave radiation. Relationship between global SSH trend over a decade and (A) local SSH change over a decade (m/m). (B) Global SST change over a decade (m/K) (C) Portion of decadal SST change correlated with net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (m/K) (D) Portion of decadal SST change not correlated with net radiation at the top of the atmosphere.

Steric sea level change in the Bay of Bengal: investigating the most variable component of sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uebbing, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen; Rietbroek, Roelof; Shum, Ck

2015-04-01

Regional sea level change is influenced by contributions from mass sources, like melting of glaciers and the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, as well as steric contributions from changes in temperature and salinity of the oceans. Radar altimetry indicates a sea level trend in the Bay of Bengal of about 6 mm- yr over the time period of 2002-2014, which is significantly larger than the global mean trend. Here, we explain 80% of this rise by steric contributions and 20% by mass-related contributions. The increased rise of sea level in the Bay of Bengal threatens the coastal vulnerability of the surrounding countries like Bangladesh, where this effect is exacerbated in combination with land subsidence of the very low lying coastal areas. The BanD-AID (Bangladesh Delta: Assessment of the Causes of Sea-level Rise Hazards and Integrated Development of Predictive Modeling Towards Mitigation and Adaptation) project tries to assess the current and future sea level rise and its impacts on the people living in the threatened coastal areas. As a part of this, it is necessary to analyze the different mass and steric contributors to the total sea level rise to aid in the prediction of future risks. We use data from radar altimetry and the GRACE mission to separate the total sea level rise into contributions from mass sources and steric changes. In our approach, temporal GRACE gravity data and Jason-1 and -2 along track altimetry data are fitted to time invariant spatial patterns (fingerprints) to avoid problems with GRACE resolution, filtering, geocenter and related issues. Our results show that in the Bay of Bengal the steric component is influenced by annual and interannual phenomena and, at the same time, it is significantly larger compared to the individual mass contributions, which show a linear and relatively stable behavior over time. We validate the steric component of our inversion by comparing it to independent steric estimates from 4-D gridded temperature and salinity products from different ARGO processing facilities. We also compare to the classical approach of subtracting the mass component, estimated by GRACE, from the total sea level change, measured by altimetry. Furthermore, we assess the sensitivity of our inversion to the normalized steric fingerprints, which are either based on ARGO fields or derived from ocean modeling. While most steric changes are taking place in the upper 700 m of the ocean, our inversion also allows us to (indirectly) assess the influence from the deep ocean, which is not negligible for the total steric trend.

Critical width of tidal flats triggers marsh collapse in the absence of sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Mariotti, Giulio; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2013-01-01

High rates of wave-induced erosion along salt marsh boundaries challenge the idea that marsh survival is dictated by the competition between vertical sediment accretion and relative sea-level rise. Because waves pounding marshes are often locally generated in enclosed basins, the depth and width of surrounding tidal flats have a pivoting control on marsh erosion. Here, we show the existence of a threshold width for tidal flats bordering salt marshes. Once this threshold is exceeded, irreversible marsh erosion takes place even in the absence of sea-level rise. This catastrophic collapse occurs because of the positive feedbacks among tidal flat widening by wave-induced marsh erosion, tidal flat deepening driven by wave bed shear stress, and local wind wave generation. The threshold width is determined by analyzing the 50-y evolution of 54 marsh basins along the US Atlantic Coast. The presence of a critical basin width is predicted by a dynamic model that accounts for both horizontal marsh migration and vertical adjustment of marshes and tidal flats. Variability in sediment supply, rather than in relative sea-level rise or wind regime, explains the different critical width, and hence erosion vulnerability, found at different sites. We conclude that sediment starvation of coastlines produced by river dredging and damming is a major anthropogenic driver of marsh loss at the study sites and generates effects at least comparable to the accelerating sea-level rise due to global warming. PMID:23513219

Critical width of tidal flats triggers marsh collapse in the absence of sea-level rise.

PubMed

Mariotti, Giulio; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2013-04-02

High rates of wave-induced erosion along salt marsh boundaries challenge the idea that marsh survival is dictated by the competition between vertical sediment accretion and relative sea-level rise. Because waves pounding marshes are often locally generated in enclosed basins, the depth and width of surrounding tidal flats have a pivoting control on marsh erosion. Here, we show the existence of a threshold width for tidal flats bordering salt marshes. Once this threshold is exceeded, irreversible marsh erosion takes place even in the absence of sea-level rise. This catastrophic collapse occurs because of the positive feedbacks among tidal flat widening by wave-induced marsh erosion, tidal flat deepening driven by wave bed shear stress, and local wind wave generation. The threshold width is determined by analyzing the 50-y evolution of 54 marsh basins along the US Atlantic Coast. The presence of a critical basin width is predicted by a dynamic model that accounts for both horizontal marsh migration and vertical adjustment of marshes and tidal flats. Variability in sediment supply, rather than in relative sea-level rise or wind regime, explains the different critical width, and hence erosion vulnerability, found at different sites. We conclude that sediment starvation of coastlines produced by river dredging and damming is a major anthropogenic driver of marsh loss at the study sites and generates effects at least comparable to the accelerating sea-level rise due to global warming.

Autonomous Control Modes and Optimized Path Guidance for Shipboard Landing in High Sea States

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-15

50 0 50 Singular Values Frequency (rad/s) S in g u la r V a lu e s ( d B ) controller . The non -output variables can be estimated by reliable linear...Contract # N00014-14-C-0004 Autonomous Control Modes and Optimized Path Guidance for Shipboard Landing in High Sea States Progress Report...recovery of a VTOL UAV. There is a clear need for additional levels of stability and control augmentation and, ultimately, fully autonomous landing

Variability in global ocean phytoplankton distribution over 1979-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masotti, I.; Alvain, S.; Moulin, C.; Antoine, D.

2009-04-01

Recently, reanalysis of long-term ocean color data (CZCS and SeaWiFS; Antoine et al., 2005) has shown that world ocean average phytoplankton chlorophyll levels show an increase of 20% over the last two decades. It is however unknown whether this increase is associated with a change in the distribution of phytoplankton groups or if it simply corresponds to an increase of the productivity. Within the framework of the GLOBPHY project, the distribution of the phytoplankton groups was monitored by applying the PHYSAT method (Alvain et al., 2005) to the historical ocean color data series from CZCS, OCTS and SeaWiFS sensors. The PHYSAT algorithm allows identification of several phytoplankton, like nanoeucaryotes, prochlorococcus, synechococcus and diatoms. Because both sensors (OCTS-SeaWiFS) are very similar, OCTS data were processed with the standard PHYSAT algorithm to cover the 1996-1997 period during which a large El Niño event occurred, just before the SeaWiFS era. Our analysis of this dataset (1996-2006) evidences a strong variability in the distribution of phytoplankton groups at both regional and global scales. In the equatorial region (0°-5°S), a three-fold increase of nanoeucaryotes frequency was detected in opposition to a two-fold decrease of synechococcus during the early stages of El Niño conditions (May-June 1997, OCTS). The impact of this El Niño is however not confined to the Equatorial Pacific and has affected the global ocean. The processing of CZCS data with PHYSAT has required several adaptations of this algorithm due to the lower performances and the reduced number of spectral bands of the sensor. Despites higher uncertainties, the phytoplankton groups distribution obtained with CZCS is globally consistent with that of SeaWiFS. A comparison of variability in global phytoplankton distribution between 1979-1982 (CZCS) and 1999-2002 (SeaWiFS) suggests an increase in nanoeucaryotes at high latitudes (>40°) and in the equatorial region (10°S-10°N ) for prochlorococcus and synechococcus during 1999-2002. Our results show variability in global ocean phytoplankton distribution over a 20-year timescale. Strong variability observed over the inter-annual and inter-decadal scales are shown and tentatively explained using environmental variables.

Accretion of a New England (U.S.A.) salt marsh in response to inlet migration, storms, and sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, C.T.; Peck, J.A.; Allen, J.R.; King, J.W.; Appleby, P.G.

1997-01-01

Sediment accumulation rates were determined at several sites throughout Nauset Marsh (Massachusetts, U.S.A.), a back-barrier lagoonal system, using feldspar marker horizons to evaluate short-term rates (1 to 2 year scales) and radiometric techniques to estimate rates over longer time scales (137Cs, 210Pb, 14C). The barrier spit fronting the Spartima-dominated study site has a complex geomorphic history of inlet migration and overwash events. This study evaluates sediment accumulation rates in relation to inlet migration, storm events and sea-level rise. The marker horizon technique displayed strong temporal and spatial variability in response to storm events and proximity to the inlet. Sediment accumulation rates of up to 24 mm year-1 were recorded in the immediate vicinity of the inlet during a period that included several major coastal storms, while feldspar sites remote from the inlet had substantially lower rates (trace accumulation to 2.2 mm year-1). During storm-free periods, accumulation rates did not exceed 6.7 mm year-1, but remained quite variable among sites. Based on 137Cs (3.8 to 4.5 mm year-1) and 210Pb (2.6 to 4.2 mm year-1) radiometric techniques, integrating sediment accumulation over decadal time scales, the marsh appeared to be keeping pace with the relative rate of sea-level rise from 1921 to 1993 of 2.4 mm year-1. At one site, the 210Pb-based sedimentation rate and rate of relative sea-level rise were nearly similar and peat rhizome analysis revealed that Distichlis spicata recently replaced this once S. patens site, suggesting that this portion of Nauset Marsh may be getting wetter, thus representing an initial response to wetland submergence. Horizon markers are useful in evaluating the role of short-term events, such as storms or inlet migration, influencing marsh sedimentation processes. However, sampling methods that integrate marsh sedimentation over decadal time scales are preferable when evaluating a systems response to sea-level rise.

The Impacts of 3-D Earth Structure on GIA-Induced Crustal Deformation and Future Sea-Level Change in the Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, E. M.; Hay, C.; Latychev, K.; Gomez, N. A.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2016-12-01

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models used to constrain the extent of past ice sheets and viscoelastic Earth structure, or to correct geodetic and geological observables for ice age effects, generally only consider depth-dependent variations in Earth viscosity and lithospheric structure. A et al. [2013] argued that 3-D Earth structure could impact GIA observables in Antarctica, but concluded that the presence of such structure contributes less to GIA uncertainty than do differences in Antarctic deglaciation histories. New seismic and geological evidence, however, indicates the Antarctic is underlain by complex, high amplitude variability in viscoelastic structure, including a low viscosity zone (LVZ) under West Antarctica. Hay et al. [2016] showed that sea-level fingerprints of modern melting calculated using such Earth models differ from those based on elastic or 1-D viscoelastic Earth models within decades of melting. Our investigation is motivated by two questions: (1) How does 3-D Earth structure, especially this LVZ, impact observations of GIA-induced crustal deformation associated with the last deglaciation? (2) How will 3-D Earth structure affect predictions of future sea-level rise in Antarctica? We compute the gravitationally self-consistent sea level, uplift, and gravity changes using the finite volume treatment of Latychev et al. [2005]. We consider four viscoelastic Earth models: a global 1-D model; a regional, West Antarctic-like 1-D model; a 3-D model where the lithospheric thickness varies laterally; and a 3-D model where both viscosity and lithospheric thickness vary laterally. For our Last Glacial Maximum to present investigations we employ ICE6g [Peltier et al., 2015]. For our present-future investigations we consider a melt scenario consistent with GRACE satellite gravity derived solutions [Harig et al., 2015]. Our calculations indicate that predictions of crustal deformations due to both GIA and ongoing melting are strongly influenced by 3-D lithospheric thickness and viscosity structure. Future sea level change due to ongoing melting is primarily influenced by 3-D viscosity structure. We show that 1-D Earth models built using regional inferences of viscosity and lithospheric thickness do not accurately capture the variability introduced by 3-D Earth structure.

The Impacts of 3-D Earth Structure on GIA-Induced Crustal Deformation and Future Sea-Level Change in the Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, E. M.; Hay, C.; Latychev, K.; Gomez, N. A.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2017-12-01

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models used to constrain the extent of past ice sheets and viscoelastic Earth structure, or to correct geodetic and geological observables for ice age effects, generally only consider depth-dependent variations in Earth viscosity and lithospheric structure. A et al. [2013] argued that 3-D Earth structure could impact GIA observables in Antarctica, but concluded that the presence of such structure contributes less to GIA uncertainty than do differences in Antarctic deglaciation histories. New seismic and geological evidence, however, indicates the Antarctic is underlain by complex, high amplitude variability in viscoelastic structure, including a low viscosity zone (LVZ) under West Antarctica. Hay et al. [2016] showed that sea-level fingerprints of modern melting calculated using such Earth models differ from those based on elastic or 1-D viscoelastic Earth models within decades of melting. Our investigation is motivated by two questions: (1) How does 3-D Earth structure, especially this LVZ, impact observations of GIA-induced crustal deformation associated with the last deglaciation? (2) How will 3-D Earth structure affect predictions of future sea-level rise in Antarctica? We compute the gravitationally self-consistent sea level, uplift, and gravity changes using the finite volume treatment of Latychev et al. [2005]. We consider four viscoelastic Earth models: a global 1-D model; a regional, West Antarctic-like 1-D model; a 3-D model where the lithospheric thickness varies laterally; and a 3-D model where both viscosity and lithospheric thickness vary laterally. For our Last Glacial Maximum to present investigations we employ ICE6g [Peltier et al., 2015]. For our present-future investigations we consider a melt scenario consistent with GRACE satellite gravity derived solutions [Harig et al., 2015]. Our calculations indicate that predictions of crustal deformations due to both GIA and ongoing melting are strongly influenced by 3-D lithospheric thickness and viscosity structure. Future sea level change due to ongoing melting is primarily influenced by 3-D viscosity structure. We show that 1-D Earth models built using regional inferences of viscosity and lithospheric thickness do not accurately capture the variability introduced by 3-D Earth structure.

Tropical Forcing of the Summer East Atlantic Pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wulff, C. Ole; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Gollan, Gereon; Hansen, Felicitas

2017-11-01

The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave.

Wind-driven changes of surface current, temperature, and chlorophyll observed by satellites north of New Guinea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radenac, Marie-Hélène; Léger, Fabien; Messié, Monique; Dutrieux, Pierre; Menkes, Christophe; Eldin, Gérard

2016-04-01

Satellite observations of wind, sea level and derived currents, sea surface temperature (SST), and chlorophyll are used to expand our understanding of the physical and biological variability of the ocean surface north of New Guinea. Based on scarce cruise and mooring data, previous studies differentiated a trade wind situation (austral winter) when the New Guinea Coastal Current (NGCC) flows northwestward and a northwest monsoon situation (austral summer) when a coastal upwelling develops and the NGCC reverses. This circulation pattern is confirmed by satellite observations, except in Vitiaz Strait where the surface northwestward flow persists. We find that intraseasonal and seasonal time scale variations explain most of the variance north of New Guinea. SST and chlorophyll variabilities are mainly driven by two processes: penetration of Solomon Sea waters and coastal upwelling. In the trade wind situation, the NGCC transports cold Solomon Sea waters through Vitiaz Strait in a narrow vein hugging the coast. Coastal upwelling is generated in westerly wind situations (westerly wind event, northwest monsoon). Highly productive coastal waters are advected toward the equator and, during some westerly wind events, toward the eastern part of the warm pool. During El Niño, coastal upwelling events and northward penetration of Solomon Sea waters combine to influence SST and chlorophyll anomalies.

Barrier island response to an elevated sea-level anomaly: Onslow Beach, North Carolina, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theuerkauf, E. J.; Rodriguez, A. B.; Fegley, S. R.; Luettich, R.

2012-12-01

Variations in sea level over time scales ranging from hours to millennia influence coastal processes and evolution. At annual time scales, elevated sea-level anomalies produce coastal flooding and promote beach erosion. This study examines the coastal response of Onslow Beach, North Carolina to the summer 2009 East Coast sea-level anomaly. Onslow Beach is a 12-km-long wave-dominated barrier island with highly variable along-barrier morphology. The transgressive southern portion of the island is characterized by a narrow beach, low dunes, and multiple washover fans, while the regressive northern portion is characterized by a wide beach and continuous tall dunes. Hourly tide gauge data from adjacent NOAA stations (Beaufort and Wrightsville Beach) are used to determine the timing and extent of elevated water levels. The seasonal and longer term trends (relative sea level rise) are removed from both of the water level series and the sea-level anomaly is represented by a large residual between the observed and predicted water levels. Beach response is quantified using terrestrial laser scanning for morphology and from geoprobe cores to determine the maximum depth of erosion (MDOE). The mean high water (MHW) shoreline and dune toe are digitized from digital elevation models derived from the laser scans and analyzed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). Landward (negative) movement of these contacts indicates erosion. Wave data collected from an Acoustic Wave and Current Meter (AWAC) located offshore of the southern end of Onslow Beach is used to characterize the wave regime throughout the study. Water level is elevated in the tide gauge data from June 2009 to March 2010. This sea-level anomaly corresponds with an increase in the maximum depth of erosion between 2009 and 2010. Landward movement of the MHW shoreline and the dunetoe increased during the period between September 2009 and May 2010 indicating an increase in beach erosion during the sea-level anomaly. No significant increase in wave height was observed during this period, suggesting that the increase in beach erosion resulted from the sea-level anomaly. The sites that were strongly impacted by the sea-level anomaly did not fully recover from the beach erosion and consequently experienced large amounts of erosion in response to Hurricane Irene in 2011. These results suggest that long duration (weeks to months) high water levels cause changes to the beach similar to those generally thought to occur only during large storms. Dune erosion from higher sea levels weakens a beaches defense to storms, leading to increased beach erosion and overwash if a storm occurs before the beach can recover. It is likely that similar high water events will increase in duration and magnitude with future climate change, leading to increased "fair-weather" beach erosion and priming the system for devastating hurricane impacts.

Sea Level Variability in the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zerbini, S.; Bruni, S.; del Conte, S.; Errico, M.; Petracca, F.; Prati, C.; Raicich, F.; Santi, E.

2015-12-01

Tide gauges measure local sea-level relative to a benchmark on land, therefore the interpretation of these measurements can be limited by the lack of appropriate knowledge of vertical crustal motions. The oldest sea-level records date back to the 18th century; these observations are the only centuries-old data source enabling the estimate of historical sea-level trends/variations. In general, tide gauge benchmarks were not frequently levelled, except in those stations where natural and/or anthropogenic subsidence was a major concern. However, in most cases, it is difficult to retrieve the historical geodetic levelling data. Space geodetic techniques, such as GNSS, Doris and InSAR are now providing measurements on a time and space-continuous basis, giving rise to a large amount of different data sets. The vertical motions resulting from the various analyses need to be compared and best exploited for achieving reliable estimates of sea level variations. In the Mediterranean area, there are a few centennial tide gauge records; our study focuses, in particular, on the Italian time series of Genoa, Marina di Ravenna, Venice and Trieste. Two of these stations, Marina di Ravenna and Venice, are affected by both natural and anthropogenic subsidence, the latter was particularly intense during a few decades of the 20th century because of ground fluids withdrawal. We have retrieved levelling data of benchmarks at and/or close to the tide gauges from the end of 1800 and, for the last couple of decades, also GPS and InSAR height time series in close proximity of the stations. By using an ensemble of these data, modelling of the long-period non-linear behavior of subsidence was successfully accomplished. After removal of the land vertical motions, the linear long period sea-level rates of all stations are in excellent agreement. Over the last two decades, the tide gauge rates were also compared with those obtained by satellite radar altimetry data.

Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

2017-04-01

Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities, Mediterranean Sea level would follow global changes with departures lower than + 5 cm. In a second step we use the same methodology to obtain SLR projections at global scale in order to assess the vulnerability of other coastal areas. Namely, we define a vulnerability index based on relating the characteristics of present day variability with SLR projections under different scenarios. Results show that the averaged vulnerability index is 0.5 for scenario RCP8.5 (projected SLR is about a half of the maximum sea level recorded in the last decades). However, in the Mediterranean, the Caribbean and the Sea of Japan the vulnerability index is much higher (2.6, 2.4 and 2.1, respectively). From this point of view, therefore, these regions could be considered the most vulnerable regions in the world.

The seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea: model results against satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton; Sein, Dmitry; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Gorchakov, Victor; Pugalova, Svetlana

2015-04-01

This study is aimed at modelling the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea in the modern period. Adequate description of marine ecosystems in the ice-covered seas crucially depends on the accuracy in determining of thicknesses of ice and snow on the sea surface which control penetrating photosynthetically active radiation under the ice. One of the few models of ice able to adequately reproduce the dynamics of sea ice is the sea ice model HELMI [1], containing 7 different categories of ice. This model has been imbedded into the Princeton Ocean Model. With this coupled model 2 runs for the period 1998-2007 were performed under different atmospheric forcing prescribed from NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 archives. For prescribing conditions at the open boundary, all the necessary information about the horizontal velocity, level, temperature and salinity of the water, ice thickness and compactness was taken from the results of the global ocean general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg, Germany) MPIOM [2]. The resulting solution with NCEP forcing with a high accuracy simulates the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from MODIS data. The maximum difference between the calculated and satellite-derived SSTs (averaged over 4 selected areas of the Barents Sea) during the period 2000-2007 does not exceed 1.5 °C. Seasonal and inter-annual variations in the area of ice cover are also in good agreement with satellite-derived estimates. Pelagic ecosystem model developed in [3] has been coupled into the above hydrodynamic model and used to calculate the changes in the characteristics of marine ecosystems under NCEP forcing. Preliminarily the ecosystem model has been improved by introducing a parameterization of detritus deposition on the bottom and through the selection of optimal parameters for photosynthesis and zooplankton grazing, providing a solution having acceptable agreement with SeaWiFS estimates of surface chlorophyll "a" concentration. The solution for the period 1998-2007 correctly reproduces the start and end of vegetation period, and, with satisfactory accuracy, the level of the spring phytoplankton bloom, but systematically overestimates the SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentrations in the northern part of the sea and in the summer everywhere except for the southern part. According to the results, the region of phytoplankton blooming during the spring outbreak is bounded by the western boundary of the sea and the edge of solid ice. This work was supported by RFBR project № 13-05-00652 References 1. Haapala, J., Lönnroth, N., Stössel, A., 2005. A numerical study of open water formation in sea ice. J. Geophys. Res., V. 110(C9). P.1-17: doi: 10.1029/2003JC002200. 2. Gröger M., E. Maier-Reimer, U. Mikolajewicz, A. Moll, and D. Sein, 2013. NW European shelf under climate warming: implications for open ocean - shelf exchange, primary production, and carbon absorption. Biogeosciences, vol.10, 3767-3792, doi:10.5194/bg-10-3767-2013. 3. Anderson T.R., V. A. Ryabchenko; M. J. Fasham; V. A. Gorchakov. Denitrification in the Arabian Sea: A 3D ecosystem modeling study. Deep-Sea Research, Part I, V. 54, Issue 12, 2007, 2082-2119

Post-glacial variability of sea ice cover, river run-off and biological production in the western Laptev Sea (Arctic Ocean) - A high-resolution biomarker study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hörner, T.; Stein, R.; Fahl, K.; Birgel, D.

2016-07-01

Multi-proxy biomarker measurements were applied on two sediment cores (PS51/154, PS51/159) to reconstruct sea ice cover (IP25), biological production (brassicasterol, dinosterol) and river run-off (campesterol, β-sitosterol) in the western Laptev Sea over the last ∼17 ka with unprecedented temporal resolution. The absence of IP25 from 17.2 to 15.5 ka, in combination with minimum concentration of phytoplankton biomarkers, suggests that the western Laptev Sea shelf was mostly covered with permanent sea ice. Very minor river run-off and restricted biological production occurred during this cold interval. From ∼16 ka until 7.5 ka, a long-term decrease of terrigenous (riverine) organic matter and a coeval increase of marine organic matter reflect the gradual establishment of fully marine conditions in the western Laptev Sea, caused by the onset of the post-glacial transgression. Intensified river run-off and reduced sea ice cover characterized the time interval between 15.2 and 12.9 ka, including the Bølling/Allerød warm period (14.7-12.9 ka). Prominent peaks of the DIP25 Index coinciding with maximum abundances of subpolar foraminifers, are interpreted as pulses of Atlantic water inflow on the western Laptev Sea shelf. After the warm period, a sudden return to severe sea ice conditions with strongest ice-coverage between 11.9 and 11 ka coincided with the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.6 ka). At the onset of the Younger Dryas, a distinct alteration of the ecosystem (reflected in a distinct drop in terrigenous and phytoplankton biomarkers) was detected. During the last 7 ka, the sea ice proxies reflect a cooling of the Laptev Sea spring/summer season. This cooling trend was superimposed by a short-term variability in sea ice coverage, probably representing Bond cycles (1500 ± 500 ka) that are related to solar activity changes. Hence, atmospheric circulation changes were apparently able to affect the sea ice conditions on the Laptev Sea shelf under modern sea level conditions.

Use of the quasi-geostrophic dynamical framework to reconstruct the 3-D ocean state in a high-resolution realistic simulation of North Atlantic.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fresnay, Simon; Ponte, Aurélien

2017-04-01

The quasi-geostrophic (QG) framework has been, is and will be still for years to come a cornerstone method linking observations with estimates of the ocean circulation and state. We have used here the QG framework to reconstruct dynamical variables of the 3-D ocean in a state-of-the-art high-resolution (1/60 deg, 300 vertical levels) numerical simulation of the North Atlantic (NATL60). The work was carried out in 3 boxes of the simulation: Gulf Stream, Azores and Reykjaness Ridge. In a first part, general diagnostics describing the eddying dynamics have been performed and show that the QG scaling verifies in general, at depths distant from mixed layer and bathymetric gradients. Correlations with surface observables variables (e.g. temperature, sea level) were computed and estimates of quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (QGPV) were reconstructed by the means of regression laws. It is shown that that reconstruction of QGPV exhibits valuable skill for a restricted scale range, mainly using sea level as the variable of regression. Additional discussion is given, based on the flow balanced with QGPV. This work is part of the DIMUP project, aiming to improve our ability to operationnaly estimate the ocean state.

Monsoon-driven variability in the southern Red Sea and the exchange with the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, S. S.; Papadopoulos, V. P.; Abualnaja, Y.; Nenes, A.; Hoteit, I.

2016-02-01

Although progress has been achieved in describing and understanding the mean state and seasonal cycle of the Red Sea dynamics, their interannual variability is not yet well evaluated and explained. The thermohaline characteristics and the circulation patterns present strong variability at various time scales and are affected by the strong and variable atmospheric forcing and the exchange with the Indian Ocean and the gulfs located at the northern end of the basin. Sea surface temperature time-series, derived from satellite observations, show considerable trends and interannual variations. The spatial variability pattern is very diverse, especially in the north-south direction. The southern part of the Red Sea is significantly influenced by the Indian Monsoon variability that affects the sea surface temperature through the surface fluxes and the circulation patterns. This variability has also a strong impact on the lateral fluxes and the exchange with the Indian Ocean through the strait of Bab el Mandeb. During summer, there is a reversal of the surface flow and an intermediate intrusion of a relatively cold and fresh water mass. This water originates from the Gulf of Aden (the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water - GAIW), is identified in the southern part of the basin and spreads northward along the eastern Red Sea boundary to approximately 24°N and carried across the Red Sea by basin-size eddies. The GAIW intrusion plays an important role in the heat and freshwater budget of the southern Red Sea, especially in summer, impacting the thermohaline characteristics of the region. It is a permanent feature of the summer exchange flow but it exhibits significant variation from year to year. The intrusion is controlled by a monsoon-driven pressure gradient in the two ends of the strait and thus monsoon interannual variability can laterally impose its signal to the southern Red Sea thermohaline patterns.

Is the Oceanography of the New Zealand Subantarctic Region Responding to the Tropics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forcen-Vazquez, A. N.

2016-02-01

The Campbell Plateau, south of New Zealand plays an important role in New Zealand's regional climate and its oceanography may have a significant impact on fluctuations in fish stocks and marine mammal populations. It is located between the Subtropical and Subantarctic Fronts and exhibits marked variability over long time scales. It has been previously assumed, because of its location, that the Campbell Plateau oceanography is driven by Subantarctic and polar processes. Recent analysis, presented here, suggests this in not the case, and instead forcing comes from the tropics and subtropics. This is supported by positive correlations of Sea Level Anomalies (SLA) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) with SOI leading changes on the Campbell Plateau by two months for SLA and seven months for SST. Here we will present evidence of the similarity between the Campbell Plateau and the Tasman Sea SLA trends which suggests a closer relationship with the subtropical region. Satellite collected SLA data and SST from the last two decades are investigated to understand trends and long-term variability over the Campbell Plateau and its relationship with the surrounding open ocean, and other potential remote drivers of variability.

Changes in erosion and flooding risk due to long-term and cyclic oceanographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2015-01-01

We assess temporal variations in waves and sea level, which are driving factors for beach 23 erosion and coastal flooding in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We find that long-term trends in 24 the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion/flooding risk since the 25 1980s. Changes in the wave climate-which have often been ignored in earlier assessments-26 were at least as important as sea-level rise (SLR). In the next decades, SLR will likely become 27 the dominating driver and may in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and 28 depending on the emission scenario) escalate the erosion/flooding risk by up to 300% over the 29 next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and 30 significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the 31 erosion/flooding risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term 32 trends)

Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

PubMed Central

Shirzaei, Manoochehr; Bürgmann, Roland

2018-01-01

The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km2 will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km2 considering sea level rise alone. PMID:29536042

Sea Surface Temperature Products and Research Associated with GHRSST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser-Weiss, Andrea K.; Minnett, Peter J.; Kaplan, Alexey; Wick, Gary A.; Castro, Sandra; Llewellyn-Jones, David; Merchant, Chris; LeBorgne, Pierre; Beggs, Helen; Donlon, Craig J.

2012-03-01

GHRSST serves its user community through the specification of operational Sea Surface Temperature (SST) products (Level 2, Level 3 and Level 4) based on international consensus. Providers of SST data from individual satellites create and deliver GHRSST-compliant near-real time products to a global GHRSST data assembly centre and a long-term stewardship facility. The GHRSST-compliant data include error estimates and supporting data for interpretation. Groups organised within GHRSST perform research on issues relevant to applying SST for air-sea exchange, for instance the Diurnal Variability Working Group (DVWG) analyses the evolution of the skin temperature. Other GHRSST groups concentrate on improving the SST estimate (Estimation and Retrievals Working Group EARWiG) and on improving the error characterization, (Satellite SST Validation Group, ST-VAL) and on improving the methods for SST analysis (Inter-Comparison Technical Advisory Group, IC-TAG). In this presentation we cover the data products and the scientific activities associated with GHRSST which might be relevant for investigating ocean-atmosphere interactions.

ICESat Observations of Arctic Sea Ice: A First Look

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, Ron; Zwally, H. Jay; Yi, Dong-Hui

2004-01-01

Analysis of near-coincident ICESat and RADARSAT imagery shows that the retrieved elevations from the laser altimeter are sensitive to new openings (containing thin ice or open water) in the sea ice cover as well as to surface relief of old and first-year ice. The precision of the elevation estimates, measured over relatively flat sea ice, is approx. 2 cm Using the thickness of thin-ice in recent openings to estimate sea level references, we obtain the sea-ice free-board along the altimeter tracks. This step is necessitated by the large uncertainties in the time-varying sea surface topography compared to that required for accurate determination of free-board. Unknown snow depth introduces the largest uncertainty in the conversion of free-board to ice thickness. Surface roughness is also derived, for the first time, from the variability of successive elevation estimates along the altimeter track Overall, these ICESat measurements provide an unprecedented view of the Arctic Ocean ice cover at length scales at and above the spatial dimension of the altimeter footprint.

Using Groundwater Modeling to Evaluate Impacts of Sea Level Rise on A Coastal Riverine Ecosystem: A Case Study of Saint Jones River Water Shed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, C.; McKenna, T. E.

2016-12-01

A 3-D, transient, variable-density groundwater flow model (SEAWAT) is used to simulate the groundwater response to predicted sea level rise in the Saint Jones River watershed adjacent to the Delaware Estuary. Sea level rise directly leads to substantial changes in the depth of water table, and these changes can extend far inland due to the long tidal rivers in this area. This research studied the impacts of three different sea level rise scenarios (0.5m, 1.0m and 1.5m) on two concerned aspects in the area: failure of septic tank system and loss of agriculture land. The model results indicate that 1) 10% 13% of current existing septic tank will fail as the water table rise to less than 1.5meters from land surface, and 2) approximate 271 to 927 acres of agriculture land, which covers about 4% 13% of total current agriculture land in the study area, will be lost due to water table rise above the effective rooting depth. To count in the uncertainty of climate change in the future, Monte Carlo simulation was applied and a linear transformation model was created and verified to facilitate the tremendous computation.

A cross-assessment of CCI-ECVs and RCSM simulations over the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Errico, Miriam; Planton, Serge; Nabat, Pierre

2017-04-01

A first objective of this study, conducted in the framework of the Climate Modelling Users Group (CMUG), one of the projects of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) program, is a cross-assessment of simulations of a Med-CORDEX regional climate system model (CNRM-RCSM5) and a sub-set of atmosphere, marine and surface interrelated Satellite-Derived Essential Climate Variables (CCI-ECVs) (i.e. sea surface temperature, sea level, aerosols and soil moisture content) over the Mediterranean area. The consistency between the model and the CCI-ECVs is evaluated through the analysis of a climate specific event that can be observed with the CCI-ECVs, in atmospheric reanalysis and reproduced in the RCSM simulations. In this presentation we focus on the July 2006 heat wave that affected the western part of the Mediterranean continental and marine area. The application of a spectral nudging method using ERA-Interim reanalysis in our simulation allows to reproduce this event with a proper chronology. As a result we show that the consistency between the simulated model aerosol optical depth and the ECV products (being produced by the ESA Aerosol CCI project consortium) depends on the choice of the algorithm used to infer the variable from the satellite observations. In particular the heat wave main characteristics become consistent between the model and the satellite-derived observations for sea surface temperature, soil moisture and sea level. The link between the atmospheric circulation and the aerosols distribution is also investigated.

Seasonal antioxidant responses in the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck 1816) used as a bioindicator of the environmental contamination in the South-East Mediterranean.

PubMed

Amri, Sandra; Samar, Mohamed-Faouzi; Sellem, Fériel; Ouali, Kheireddine

2017-09-15

In this study, sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus were sampled seasonally at three stations during 2012 in the coastal areas of the Gulf of Annaba (southeast Mediterranean). For all sea urchins, the gonad index was calculated to determine sea urchin reproductive status. Moreover, a set of biochemical parameters, including biomarkers and oxidative stress parameters, was measured in gonads. The pesticides and physiochemical parameters were measured and dosed in sea water. The results obtained highlighted that the levels of pesticide were generally low and below those commonly applied by environmental quality standards (EQS), indicating that no alarm state is currently present in the Gulf of Annaba. In addition to pollution, seasonal change is an important factor influencing biomarker activity, and the significant increases in biomarker levels in spring are a major observed trend. This activity may also be related to reproductive status. Seasonal variability was confirmed by the significant results of the Kruskal-Wallis test and by the high degree of divergence between seasons in PCA, with a total of 83.83% of variance explained. These results indicate that environmental factors that vary seasonally may affect the antioxidant status of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prolonged effect of the stratospheric pathway in linking Barents-Kara Sea sea ice variability to the midlatitude circulation in a simplified model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Yutian; Smith, Karen L.

2018-01-01

To better understand the dynamical mechanism that accounts for the observed lead-lag correlation between the early winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice variability and the later winter midlatitude circulation response, a series of experiments are conducted using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model with a prescribed idealized near-surface heating over the BKS. A prolonged effect is found in the idealized experiments following the near-surface heating and can be explicitly attributed to the stratospheric pathway and the long time scale in the stratosphere. The analysis of the Eliassen-Palm flux shows that, as a result of the imposed heating and linear constructive interference, anomalous upward propagating planetary-scale waves are excited and weaken the stratospheric polar vortex. This stratospheric response persists for approximately 1-2 months accompanied by downward migration to the troposphere and the surface. This downward migration largely amplifies and extends the low-level jet deceleration in the midlatitudes and cold air advection over central Asia. The idealized model experiments also suggest that the BKS region is the most effective in affecting the midlatitude circulation than other regions over the Arctic.

Improved exploration of fishery resources through the integration of remotely sensed merged sea level anomaly, chlorophyll concentration, and sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priya, R. Kanmani Shanmuga; Balaguru, B.; Ramakrishnan, S.

2013-10-01

The capabilities of evolving satellite remote sensing technology, combined with conventional data collection techniques, provide a powerful tool for efficient and cost effective management of living marine resources. Fishes are the valuable living marine resources producing food, profit and pleasure to the human community. Variations in oceanic condition play a role in natural fluctuations of fish stocks. The Satellite Altimeter derived Merged Sea Level Anomaly(MSLA) results in the better understanding of ocean variability and mesosclae oceanography and provides good possibility to reveal the zones of high dynamic activity. This study comprised the synergistic analysis of signatures of SEAWIFS derived chlorophyll concentration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(NOAA-AVHRR) derived Sea Surface Temperature and the monthly Merged Sea Level Anomaly data derived from Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1 and ERS-1 Altimeters for the past 7 years during the period from 1998 to 2004. The overlapping Chlorophyll, SST and MSLA were suggested for delineating Potential Fishing Zones (PFZs). The Chlorophyll and SST data set were found to have influenced by short term persistence from days to week while MSLA signatures of respective features persisted for longer duration. Hence, the study used Altimeter derived MSLA as an index for long term variability detection of fish catches along with Chlorophyll and SST images and the maps showing PFZs of the study area were generated. The real time Fishing statistics of the same duration were procured from FSI Mumbai. The catch contours were generated with respect to peak spectra of chlorophyll variation and trough spectra of MSLA and SST variation. The vice- a- versa patterns were observed in the poor catch contours. The Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) for each fishing trail was calculated to normalize the fish catch. Based on the statistical analysis the actual CPUEs were classified at each probable MSLA depth zones and plotted on the same images.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 20; The Climate of the FVCCM-3 Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Chang, Yehui; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Nebuda, Sharon; Shen, Bo-Wen

2001-01-01

This document describes the climate of version 1 of the NASA-NCAR model developed at the Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model consists of a new finite-volume dynamical core and an implementation of the NCAR climate community model (CCM-3) physical parameterizations. The version of the model examined here was integrated at a resolution of 2 degrees latitude by 2.5 degrees longitude and 32 levels. The results are based on assimilation that was forced with observed sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 1979-1995, and are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and various other observational data sets. The results include an assessment of seasonal means, subseasonal transients including the Madden Julian Oscillation, and interannual variability. The quantities include zonal and meridional winds, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, stream function, velocity potential, precipitation, sea level pressure, and cloud radiative forcing.

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Determined from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1999-01-01

The compiled, quality-controlled satellite multichannel passive-microwave record of polar sea ice now spans over 18 years, from November 1978 through December 1996, and is revealing considerable information about the Arctic sea ice cover and its variability. The information includes data on ice concentrations (percent areal coverages of ice), ice extents, ice melt, ice velocities, the seasonal cycle of the ice, the interannual variability of the ice, the frequency of ice coverage, and the length of the sea ice season. The data reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 sq km, while individual regions experienced much greater percent variations, for instance, with the Greenland Sea having a range of 740,000 - 1,110,000 sq km in its yearly maximum ice coverage. In spite of the large variations from year to year and region to region, overall the Arctic ice extents showed a statistically significant, 2.80% / decade negative trend over the 18.2-year period. Ice season lengths, which vary from only a few weeks near the ice margins to the full year in the large region of perennial ice coverage, also experienced interannual variability, along with spatially coherent overall trends. Linear least squares trends show the sea ice season to have lengthened in much of the Bering Sea, Baffin Bay, the Davis Strait, and the Labrador Sea, but to have shortened over a much larger area, including the Sea of Okhotsk, the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, and the southeastern Arctic.

Diagnosing and Reconstructing Real-World Hydroclimatic Dynamics from Time Sequenced Data: The Case of Saltwater Intrusion into Coastal Wetlands in Everglades National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffaker, R.; Munoz-Carpena, R.

2016-12-01

There are increasing calls to audit decision-support models used for environmental policy to ensure that they correspond with the reality facing policy makers. Modelers can establish correspondence by providing empirical evidence of real-world dynamic behavior that their models skillfully simulate. We present a pre-modeling diagnostic framework—based on nonlinear dynamic analysis—for detecting and reconstructing real-world environmental dynamics from observed time-sequenced data. Phenomenological (data-driven) modeling—based on machine learning regression techniques—extracts a set of ordinary differential equations governing empirically-diagnosed system dynamics from a single time series, or from multiple time series on causally-interacting variables. We apply the framework to investigate saltwater intrusion into coastal wetlands in Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. We test the following hypotheses posed in the literature linking regional hydrologic variables with global climatic teleconnections: (1) Sea level in Florida Bay drives well level and well salinity in the coastal Everglades; (2) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) drives sea level, well level and well salinity; and (3) AMO and (El Niño Southern Oscillation) ENSO bi-causally interact. The thinking is that salt water intrusion links ocean-surface salinity with salinity of inland water sources, and sea level with inland water; that AMO and ENSO share a teleconnective relationship (perhaps through the atmosphere); and that AMO and ENSO both influence inland precipitation and thus well levels. Our results support these hypotheses, and we successfully construct a parsimonious phenomenological model that reproduces diagnosed nonlinear dynamics and system interactions. We propose that reconstructed data dynamics be used, along with other expert information, as a rigorous benchmark to guide specification and testing of hydrologic decision support models corresponding with real-world behavior.

Variability of the Labrador Sea Surface Eddy Kinetic Energy Observed by Altimeter From 1993 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weiwei; Yan, Xiao-Hai

2018-01-01

A merged along track altimeter data set is used to study the variability of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Labrador Sea from 1993 to 2012. The EKE near the west Greenland current (WGC) has strong interannual variability without long-term trend from 1993 to 2012. The propagation direction of the Irminger Rings (IRs) originating from the WGC can be inferred from the EKE derived from altimeter, and the southward propagation of the IRs varies interannually. The central Labrador Sea EKE increases significantly from 1993 to 2012. The central Labrador Sea temperature difference between the end and the beginning of the winter convections is defined as restratification index to measure the restratification strengths. The relation between the central Labrador Sea EKE and the restratification index shows that the enhanced eddy activity originating from the west of the central Labrador Sea may cool the central Labrador Sea significantly. The interannual variability of the WGC EKE is likely to be driven by the large scale Subpolar Gyre (SPG) circulation variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO also affects the central Labrador Sea EKE through its fingerprint in the local wind stress and surface heat flux. The NAO affects the WGC EKE by changing the SPG circulation strength, which will subsequently affect the WGC EKE through unknown physical processes.

The impact of ENSO on regional chlorophyll-a anomaly in the Arafura Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewi, D. M. P. R.; Fatmasari, D.; Kurniawan, A.; Munandar, M. A.

2018-03-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific. ENSO influences ocean climate variability in Indonesia including the Arafura Sea. The relationship between oceanic chlorophyll-a and ENSO has been the focus of study over the past decade. Here we examine the impact of ENSO on regional chlorophyll-a anomaly in the Papua waters using 14 years of chlorophyll-a and sea surface temperature (SST) data from AQUA MODIS and sea level anomaly data from AVISO. It is found that when El Niño events occur the negative SST anomaly in the Papua waters as well as the enhanced upwelling cause the increase of chlorophyll-a concentration. The highest chlorophyll-a concentration (> 1 mg–cm-3) occured during El Niño and observed around the Aru archipelago. In contrast during La Niña event, the positive SST anomaly in Papua waters and the suppressed upwelling cause the decrease of chlorophyll-a concentration. Our results suggest that during El Niño (La Niña), the enhanced (suppressed) upwelling related to the significant decreasing (increasing) of sea level anomaly.

In-Situ and Remotely-Sensed Observations of Biomass Burning Aerosols at Doi Ang Khang, Thailand During 7-SEAS BASELInE 2015

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sayer, Andrew M.; Hsu, N. Christina; Hsiao, Ta-Chih; Pantina, Peter; Kuo, Ferret; Ou-Yang, Chang-Feng; Holben, Brent N.; Janjai, Serm; Chantara, Somporn; Wang, Sheng-Hsiang;

Impact of climate change on freshwater resources in a heterogeneous coastal aquifer of Bremerhaven, Germany: A three-dimensional modeling study.

PubMed

Yang, Jie; Graf, Thomas; Ptak, Thomas

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to induce sea level rise in the German Bight, which is part of the North Sea, Germany. Climate change may also modify river discharge of the river Weser flowing into the German Bight, which will alter both pressure and salinity distributions in the river Weser estuary. To study the long-term interaction between sea level rise, discharge variations, a storm surge and coastal aquifer flow dynamics, a 3D seawater intrusion model was designed using the fully coupled surface-subsurface numerical model HydroGeoSphere. The model simulates the coastal aquifer as an integral system considering complexities such as variable-density flow, variably saturated flow, irregular boundary conditions, irregular land surface and anthropogenic structures (e.g., dyke, drainage canals, water gates). The simulated steady-state groundwater flow of the year 2009 is calibrated using PEST. In addition, four climate change scenarios are simulated based on the calibrated model: (i) sea level rise of 1m, (ii) the salinity of the seaside boundary increases by 4 PSU (Practical Salinity Units), (iii) the salinity of the seaside boundary decreases by 12 PSU, and (iv) a storm surge with partial dyke failure. Under scenarios (i) and (iv), the salinized area expands several kilometers further inland during several years. Natural remediation can take up to 20 years. However, sudden short-term salinity changes in the river Weser estuary do not influence the salinized area in the coastal aquifer. The obtained results are useful for coastal engineering practices and drinking water resource management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.