Anthropogenic Influence on the Changes of the Subtropical Gyre Circulation in the South Pacific in the 20th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albrecht, F.; Pizarro, O.; Montecinos, A.

2016-12-01

The subtropical ocean gyre in the South Pacific is a large scale wind-driven ocean circulation, including the Peru-Chile Current, the westward South Equatorial Current, the East Australian Current, and the eastward South Pacific Current. Large scale ocean circulations play an essential role in the climate of the Earth over long and short term time scales.In the recent years a spin-up of this circulation has been recognized analyzing observations of sea level, temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface temperature and wind. Until now it is not clear whether this spin-up is decadal variability or whether it is a long-term trend introduced by anthropogenic forcing. This study aims to analyze whether and how anthropogenic forcing influences the position and the strength of the gyre in the 20th century. To determine that, yearly means of different variables of an ensemble of CMIP5 models are analyzed. The experiments 'historical' and 'historicalNat' are examined. The 'historical' experiment simulates the climate of the 20th century and the 'historicalNat' experiment covers the same time period, but only includes natural forcings. Comparing the outcomes of these two experiments is supposed to give information about the anthropogenic influence on the subtropical gyre of the South Pacific.The main variable we analyze is sea level change. This is directly related to the gyre circulation. The center of the gyre is characterized by a high pressure zone (high sea level) and the temporal and spatial variability of the sea level height field gives information about changes in the gyre circulation. The CMIP5 databank includes steric and dynamic sea level changes. Steric sea level, that is the contribution of temperature and salinity of the water, describes the major contribution to regional sea level change with respect to the global mean. Density changes contract or expand the water, which also changes the sea surface height. This does not only occur at the surface, but at all layers in the ocean. Sea level change thus integrates ocean variability throughout the depth of the ocean. Sea level simulations of the different experiments are compared using long-term trends, multi-year anomalies and EOF-Analysis. Changes in temperature and salinity in the deeper ocean are used to describe the development of the gyre below the surface.

Remotely sensed sea surface temperature variability off California during a 'Santa Ana' clearing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lynn, R. J.; Svejkovsky, J.

1984-01-01

Multichannel atmospheric correction equations for the NOAA 6 proposed by Bernstein (1982) and by McClain (1981) are evaluated by using satellite and in situ data collected over and in the Southern California Bight. The temporal and spatial variation of sea surface temperature over small scales is estimated from the data, and the effect of this variation in matching satellite and in situ data sets is discussed. Changes in the temperature fields between images are examined for diurnal variation and for surface advection of horizontal temperature gradients.

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited in a high resolution ocean simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Xing; Hünicke, Birgit; Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo

2018-01-01

Studies based on sediment records, sea-surface temperature and wind suggest that upwelling along the western coast of Arabian Sea is strongly affected by the Indian summer Monsoon. We examine this relationship directly in an eddy-resolving global ocean simulation STORM driven by atmospheric reanalysis over the last 61 years. With its very high spatial resolution (10 km), STORM allows us to identify characteristics of the upwelling system. We analyse the co-variability between upwelling and meteorological and oceanic variables from 1950 to 2010. The analysis reveals high interannual correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind-stress (r = 0.73) as well as with sea-surface temperature (r = -0.83). However, the correlation between the upwelling and the Monsoon is small. We find an atmospheric circulation pattern different from the one that drives the Monsoon as the main modulator of the upwelling variability. In spite of this, the patterns of temperature anomalies that are either linked to Arabian Sea upwelling or to the Monsoon are spatially quite similar, although the physical mechanisms of these links are different. In addition, no long-term trend is detected in our modelled upwelling in the Arabian Sea.

Closing the Seasonal Ocean Surface Temperature Balance in the Eastern Tropical Oceans from Remote Sensing and Model Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Clayson, Carol A.

2012-01-01

The Eastern tropical ocean basins are regions of significant atmosphere-ocean interaction and are important to variability across subseasonal to decadal time scales. The numerous physical processes at play in these areas strain the abilities of coupled general circulation models to accurately reproduce observed upper ocean variability. Furthermore, limitations in the observing system of important terms in the surface temperature balance (e.g., turbulent and radiative heat fluxes, advection) introduce uncertainty into the analyses of processes controlling sea surface temperature variability. This study presents recent efforts to close the surface temperature balance through estimation of the terms in the mixed layer temperature budget using state-of-the-art remotely sensed and model-reanalysis derived products. A set of twelve net heat flux estimates constructed using combinations of radiative and turbulent heat flux products - including GEWEX-SRB, ISCCP-SRF, OAFlux, SeaFlux, among several others - are used with estimates of oceanic advection, entrainment, and mixed layer depth variability to investigate the seasonal variability of ocean surface temperatures. Particular emphasis is placed on how well the upper ocean temperature balance is, or is not, closed on these scales using the current generation of observational and model reanalysis products. That is, the magnitudes and spatial variability of residual imbalances are addressed. These residuals are placed into context within the current uncertainties of the surface net heat fluxes and the role of the mixed layer depth variability in scaling the impact of those uncertainties, particularly in the shallow mixed layers of the Eastern tropical ocean basins.

Joint variability of global runoff and global sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2008-01-01

Global land surface runoff and sea surface temperatures (SST) are analyzed to identify the primary modes of variability of these hydroclimatic data for the period 1905-2002. A monthly water-balance model first is used with global monthly temperature and precipitation data to compute time series of annual gridded runoff for the analysis period. The annual runoff time series data are combined with gridded annual sea surface temperature data, and the combined dataset is subjected to a principal components analysis (PCA) to identify the primary modes of variability. The first three components from the PCA explain 29% of the total variability in the combined runoff/SST dataset. The first component explains 15% of the total variance and primarily represents long-term trends in the data. The long-term trends in SSTs are evident as warming in all of the oceans. The associated long-term trends in runoff suggest increasing flows for parts of North America, South America, Eurasia, and Australia; decreasing runoff is most notable in western Africa. The second principal component explains 9% of the total variance and reflects variability of the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its associated influence on global annual runoff patterns. The third component explains 5% of the total variance and indicates a response of global annual runoff to variability in North Aflantic SSTs. The association between runoff and North Atlantic SSTs may explain an apparent steplike change in runoff that occurred around 1970 for a number of continental regions.

Three modes of interdecadal trends in sea surface temperature and sea surface height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M.

2013-12-01

It might be thought that sea surface height and sea surface temperature would be tightly related. We show that this is not necessarily the case on a global scale. We analysed this relationship in a suite of coupled climate models run under 1860 forcing conditions. The models are low-resolution variants of the GFDL Earth System Model, reported in Galbraith et al. (J. Clim. 2011). 1. Correlated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode corresponds to opening and closing of convective chimneys in the Southern Ocean. As the Southern Ocean destratifies, sea ice formation is suppressed during the winter and more heat is taken up during the summer. This mode of variability is highly correlated with changes in the top of the atmosphere radiative budget and weakly correlated with changes in the deep ocean circulation. 2. Uncorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperature. This mode of variability is associated with interdecadal variabliity in tropical winds. Changes in the advective flux of heat to the surface ocean play a critical role in driving these changes, which also result in significant local changes in sea level. Changes sea ice over the Southern Ocean still result in changes in solar absorption, but these are now largely cancelled by changes in outgoing longwave radiation. 3. Anticorrelated changes in global sea surface height and global sea surface temperatures. By varying the lateral diffusion coefficient in the ocean model, we are able to enhance and suppress convection in the Southern and Northern Pacific Oceans. Increasing the lateral diffusion coefficients shifts the balance sources of deep water away from the warm salty deep water of the North Atlantic and towards cold fresh deep water from the other two regions. As a result, even though the planet as a whole warms, the deep ocean cools and sea level falls, with changes of order 30 cm over 500 years. The increase in solar absorption in polar regions is more than compensated by an increase in outgoing longwave radiation. Relationship between global SSH trend over a decade and (A) local SSH change over a decade (m/m). (B) Global SST change over a decade (m/K) (C) Portion of decadal SST change correlated with net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (m/K) (D) Portion of decadal SST change not correlated with net radiation at the top of the atmosphere.

Large Scale Variability of Phytoplankton Blooms in the Arctic and Peripheral Seas: Relationships with Sea Ice, Temperature, Clouds, and Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Cota, Glenn F.

2004-01-01

Spatially detailed satellite data of mean color, sea ice concentration, surface temperature, clouds, and wind have been analyzed to quantify and study the large scale regional and temporal variability of phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic and peripheral seas from 1998 to 2002. In the Arctic basin, phytoplankton chlorophyll displays a large symmetry with the Eastern Arctic having about fivefold higher concentrations than those of the Western Arctic. Large monthly and yearly variability is also observed in the peripheral seas with the largest blooms occurring in the Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, and the Barents Sea during spring. There is large interannual and seasonal variability in biomass with average chlorophyll concentrations in 2002 and 2001 being higher than earlier years in spring and summer. The seasonality in the latitudinal distribution of blooms is also very different such that the North Atlantic is usually most expansive in spring while the North Pacific is more extensive in autumn. Environmental factors that influence phytoplankton growth were examined, and results show relatively high negative correlation with sea ice retreat and strong positive correlation with temperature in early spring. Plankton growth, as indicated by biomass accumulation, in the Arctic and subarctic increases up to a threshold surface temperature of about 276-277 degree K (3-4 degree C) beyond which the concentrations start to decrease suggesting an optimal temperature or nutrient depletion. The correlation with clouds is significant in some areas but negligible in other areas, while the correlations with wind speed and its components are generally weak. The effects of clouds and winds are less predictable with weekly climatologies because of unknown effects of averaging variable and intermittent physical forcing (e.g. over storm event scales with mixing and upwelling of nutrients) and the time scales of acclimation by the phytoplankton.

The SeaFlux Turbulent Flux Dataset Version 1.0 Documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayson, Carol Anne; Roberts, J. Brent; Bogdanoff, Alec S.

2012-01-01

Under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Global Energy and Water cycle EXperiment (GEWEX) Data and Assessment Panel (GDAP), the SeaFlux Project was created to investigate producing a high-resolution satellite-based dataset of surface turbulent fluxes over the global oceans. The most current release of the SeaFlux product is Version 1.0; this represents the initial release of turbulent surface heat fluxes, associated near-surface variables including a diurnally varying sea surface temperature.

Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.

2001-01-01

The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-year of data set from 1982 through 1998. We correlate the polar climate anomalies with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and examine the composites of these anomalies under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > -1), and negative (SOI < -1) phases of SOL The climate data set consists of sea-level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice data set describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables and the SOL The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen and Ross sea sectors. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillating climate anomalies that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea-level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are clearly evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are apparently associated with the SOI include: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid- 1988 through early 199 1; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and, the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea, and the lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellingshausen Sea and central Weddell Sea gyre over the period 1988-1994. Four ENSO episodes over the last 17 years contributed to a negative mean in the SOI (-0.5). In each of these episodes, significant retreats in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Sea were observed providing direct confirmation of the impact of SO on the Antarctic sea ice cover.

Interannual Variation of Surface Circulation in the Japan/East Sea due to External Forcings and Intrinsic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Byoung-Ju; Cho, Seong Hun; Jung, Hee Seok; Lee, Sang-Ho; Byun, Do-Seong; Kwon, Kyungman

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of surface ocean currents can be as large as seasonal variation in the Japan/East Sea (JES). To identify the major factors that cause such interannual variability of surface ocean circulation in the JES, surface circulation was simulated from 1998 to 2009 using a three-dimensional model. Contributions of atmospheric forcing (ATM), open boundary data (OBC), and intrinsic variability (ITV) of the surface flow in the JES on the interannual variability of surface ocean circulation were separately examined using numerical simulations. Variability in surface circulation was quantified in terms of variance in sea surface height, 100-m depth water temperature, and surface currents. ITV was found to be the dominant factor that induced interannual variabilities of surface circulation, the main path of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC), and surface kinetic energy on a time scale of 2-4 years. OBC and ATM were secondary factors contributing to the interannual variation of surface circulation. Interannual variation of ATM changed the separation latitude of EKWC and increased the variability of surface circulation in the Ulleung Basin. Interannual variation of OBC enhanced low-frequency changes in surface circulation and eddies in the Yamato Basin. It also modulated basin-wide uniform oscillations of sea level. This study suggests that precise estimation of initial conditions using data assimilation is essential for long-term prediction of surface circulation in the JES.

Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.

2002-03-01

The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-yr dataset from 1982 to 1998. The polar climate anomalies are correlated with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the composites of these anomalies are examined under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > 1), and negative (SOI < 1) phases of SOI. The climate dataset consists of sea level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice dataset describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables with the SOI. The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen, and Ross Seas. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillations that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are clearly associated with the SOI include the following: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid-1988 to early 1991; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and the ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea and lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellinghausen Sea, and central Weddell Sea gyre during the period 1988-94. Four ENSO episodes over the last 17 years contributed to a negative mean in the SOI (0.5). In each of these episodes, significant retreats in ice cover of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas were observed showing a unique association of this region of the Antarctic with the Southern Oscillation.

Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice.

PubMed

Liu, Jiping; Curry, Judith A

2010-08-24

The observed sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean shows a substantial warming trend for the second half of the 20th century. Associated with the warming, there has been an enhanced atmospheric hydrological cycle in the Southern Ocean that results in an increase of the Antarctic sea ice for the past three decades through the reduced upward ocean heat transport and increased snowfall. The simulated sea surface temperature variability from two global coupled climate models for the second half of the 20th century is dominated by natural internal variability associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, suggesting that the models' internal variability is too strong, leading to a response to anthropogenic forcing that is too weak. With increased loading of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the 21st century, the models show an accelerated warming in the Southern Ocean, and indicate that anthropogenic forcing exceeds natural internal variability. The increased heating from below (ocean) and above (atmosphere) and increased liquid precipitation associated with the enhanced hydrological cycle results in a projected decline of the Antarctic sea ice.

Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

2018-03-01

A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

Tropical Forcing of the Summer East Atlantic Pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wulff, C. Ole; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Gollan, Gereon; Hansen, Felicitas

2017-11-01

The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave.

Late Holocene SST and primary productivity variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea as a recorder for winter monsoon variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böll, Anna; Gaye, Birgit; Lückge, Andreas

2014-05-01

Variability in the oceanic environment of the Arabian Sea region is strongly influenced by the seasonal monsoon cycle of alternating wind directions. Strong south-westerly winds during the summer monsoon induce upwelling of nutrient rich waters along the coast off Somalia, Oman and southwest India, which result in high rates of primary production. In the northeastern Arabian Sea off Pakistan on the other hand, primary production and sea surface temperatures are linked to northeast monsoonal winds that cool the sea surface and drive convective mixing and high surface ocean productivity during the winter season. In this study, we analyzed alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) variations and proxies of primary productivity (organic carbon and δ15N) in a well-laminated sediment core from the Pakistan continental margin to establish the first high-resolution record of winter monsoon variability for the late Holocene. Over the last 2400 years reconstructed SST in the northeastern Arabian Sea decreased whereas productivity increased, imaging a long-term trend of northeast monsoon strengthening in response to insolation-induced southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The comparison of our winter monsoon record with records of summer monsoon intensity suggests that summer and winter monsoon strength was essentially anti-correlated over the late Holocene throughout the Asian monsoon system. In addition, SST variations recorded off Pakistan match very well with Northern Hemisphere temperature records supporting the growing body of evidence that Asian climate is linked to Northern Hemisphere climate change. It reveals a consistent pattern of increased summer monsoon activity in the northeastern Arabian Sea during northern hemispheric warm periods (Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period) and strengthened winter monsoon activity during hemispheric colder periods (Little Ice Age).

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

PubMed Central

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-01-01

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. PMID:25897996

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-04-21

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Impact of Langmuir Turbulence on Upper Ocean Response to Hurricane Edouard: Model and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blair, A.; Ginis, I.; Hara, T.; Ulhorn, E.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclone intensity is strongly affected by the air-sea heat flux beneath the storm. When strong storm winds enhance upper ocean turbulent mixing and entrainment of colder water from below the thermocline, the resulting sea surface temperature cooling may reduce the heat flux to the storm and weaken the storm. Recent studies suggest that this upper ocean turbulence is strongly affected by different sea states (Langmuir turbulence), which are highly complex and variable in tropical cyclone conditions. In this study, the upper ocean response under Hurricane Edouard (2014) is investigated using a coupled ocean-wave model with and without an explicit sea state dependent Langmuir turbulence parameterization. The results are compared with in situ observations of sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth from AXBTs, as well as satellite sea surface temperature observations. Overall, the model results of mixed layer deepening and sea surface temperature cooling under and behind the storm are consistent with observations. The model results show that the effects of sea state dependent Langmuir turbulence can be significant, particularly on the mixed layer depth evolution. Although available observations are not sufficient to confirm such effects, some observed trends suggest that the sea state dependent parameterization might be more accurate than the traditional (sea state independent) parameterization.

Long-memory and the sea level-temperature relationship: a fractional cointegration approach.

PubMed

Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Heres, David R; Martínez-Hernández, L Catalina

2014-01-01

Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level.

Highly variable Pliocene sea surface conditions in the Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachem, Paul E.; Risebrobakken, Bjørg; De Schepper, Stijn; McClymont, Erin L.

2017-09-01

The Pliocene was a time of global warmth with small sporadic glaciations, which transitioned towards the larger-scale Pleistocene glacial-interglacial variability. Here, we present high-resolution records of sea surface temperature (SST) and ice-rafted debris (IRD) in the Norwegian Sea from 5.32 to 3.14 Ma, providing evidence that the Pliocene surface conditions of the Norwegian Sea underwent a series of transitions in response to orbital forcing and gateway changes. Average SSTs are 2 °C above the regional Holocene mean, with notable variability on millennial to orbital timescales. Both gradual changes and threshold effects are proposed for the progression of regional climate towards the Late Pliocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Cooling from 4.5 to 4.3 Ma may be linked to the onset of poleward flow through the Bering Strait. This cooling was further intensified by a period of cool summers due to weak obliquity forcing. A 7 °C warming of the Norwegian Sea at 4.0 Ma suggests a major increase in northward heat transport from the North Atlantic, leading to an enhanced zonal SST gradient in the Nordic Seas, which may be linked to the expansion of sea ice in the Arctic and Nordic Seas. A warm Norwegian Sea and enhanced zonal temperature gradient between 4.0 and 3.6 Ma may have been a priming factor for increased glaciation around the Nordic Seas due to enhanced evaporation and precipitation at high northern latitudes.

Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries

PubMed Central

Liu, Yu; Cobb, Kim M.; Song, Huiming; Li, Qiang; Li, Ching-Yao; Nakatsuka, Takeshi; An, Zhisheng; Zhou, Weijian; Cai, Qiufang; Li, Jinbao; Leavitt, Steven W.; Sun, Changfeng; Mei, Ruochen; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Chan, Ming-Hsun; Sun, Junyan; Yan, Libin; Lei, Ying; Ma, Yongyong; Li, Xuxiang; Chen, Deliang; Linderholm, Hans W.

2017-01-01

The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies. PMID:28555638

Global climatology and variability of potential new production estimated from remote sensing of sea-surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugdale, Richard C.; Wilkerson, Frances P.

1995-01-01

During this project we have collected numerous shipboard data-bases of oceanic nitrate and silicate versus temperature for both equatorial and coastal upwelling regions. These cruises all have accompanying N-15 measurements of new production. The inverse relationships between nutrients and temperatures have been determined and are being used to obtain surface nutrient fields from sea surface temperatures measured remotely by satellite borne sensors- i.e. AVHRR data from NOAA satellites contained in the MCSST data set for the world ocean provided by the University of Miami. The images and data derived from space in this way show the strong seasonal fluctuations and interannual el Nino fluctuations of the nitrate field. the nitrate data has been used to make estimates of new production for the equatorial pacific which are compared with shipboard measurements when available. The importance of silicate as a nutrient driving new production and the ratio of nitrate to silicate has been discovered to be crucial to better understand the causes of new production variability, so we have added these parameters to our study and have begun to make estimates of these for the equatorial Pacific, derived from the weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

Coral-Derived Western Pacific Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures During the Last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tianran; Cobb, Kim M.; Roff, George; Zhao, Jianxin; Yang, Hongqiang; Hu, Minhang; Zhao, Kuan

2018-04-01

Reconstructions of ocean temperatures prior to the industrial era serve to constrain natural climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales, yet relatively few such observations are available from the west Pacific Warm Pool. Here we present multiple coral-based sea surface temperature reconstructions from Yongle Atoll, in the South China Sea over the last 1,250 years (762-2013 Common Era [CE]). Reconstructed coral Sr/Ca-sea surface temperatures indicate that the "Little Ice Age (1711-1817 CE)" period was 0.7°C cooler than the "Medieval Climate Anomaly (913-1132 CE)" and that late 20th century warming of the western Pacific is likely unprecedented over the past millennium. Our findings suggest that the Western Pacific Warm Pool may have expanded (contracted) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (Little Ice Age), leading to a strengthening (weakening) of the Asian summer monsoon, as recorded in Chinese stalagmites.

Spatial Patterns of Variability in Antarctic Surface Temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, Ron; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.

Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Su, Hui

2016-12-01

Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal time scales; thus, understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate prediction. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (climate models) simulate a wide range of magnitudes of unforced interdecadal variability in global mean surface air temperature (UITglobal), hampering efforts to quantify the influence of UITglobal on contemporary global temperature trends. Recently, a preliminary consensus has emerged that unforced interdecadal variability in local surface temperatures (UITlocal) over the tropical Pacific Ocean is particularly influential on UITglobal. Therefore, a reasonable hypothesis might be that the large spread in the magnitude of UITglobal across climate models can be explained by the spread in the magnitude of simulated tropical Pacific UITlocal. Here we show that this hypothesis is mostly false. Instead, the spread in the magnitude of UITglobal is linked much more strongly to the spread in the magnitude of UITlocal over high-latitude regions characterized by significant variability in oceanic convection, sea ice concentration, and energy flux at both the surface and the top of the atmosphere. Thus, efforts to constrain the climate model produced range of UITglobal magnitude would be best served by focusing on the simulation of air-sea interaction at high latitudes.

Ciguatera fish poisoning and sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and the West Indies.

PubMed

Tester, Patricia A; Feldman, Rebecca L; Nau, Amy W; Kibler, Steven R; Wayne Litaker, R

2010-10-01

Ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP) is a circumtropical disease caused by ingestion of a variety of reef fish that bioaccumulate algal toxins. Distribution and abundance of the organisms that produce these toxins, chiefly dinoflagellates of the genus Gambierdiscus, are reported to correlate positively with water temperature. Consequently, there is growing concern that increasing temperatures associated with climate change could increase the incidence of CFP. This concern prompted experiments on the growth rates of six Gambierdiscus species at temperatures between 18 degrees C and 33 degrees C and the examination of sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and West Indies for areas that could sustain rapid Gambierdiscus growth rates year-round. The thermal optimum for five of six Gambierdiscus species tested was >/=29 degrees C. Long-term SST data from the southern Gulf of Mexico indicate the number of days with sea surface temperatures >/=29 degrees C has nearly doubled (44 to 86) in the last three decades. To determine how the sea surface temperatures and Gambierdiscus growth data correlate with CFP incidences in the Caribbean, a literature review and a uniform, region-wide survey (1996-2006) of CFP cases were conducted. The highest CFP incidence rates were in the eastern Caribbean where water temperatures are warmest and least variable. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Toward the S3DVAR data assimilation software for the Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcucci, Rossella; Celestino, Simone; Toumi, Ralf; Laccetti, Giuliano

2017-07-01

Data Assimilation (DA) is an uncertainty quantification technique used to incorporate observed data into a prediction model in order to improve numerical forecasted results. The forecasting model used for producing oceanographic prediction into the Caspian Sea is the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Here we propose the computational issues we are facing in a DA software we are developing (we named S3DVAR) which implements a Scalable Three Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation model for assimilating sea surface temperature (SST) values collected into the Caspian Sea with observations provided by the Group of High resolution sea surface temperature (GHRSST). We present the algorithmic strategies we employ and the numerical issues on data collected in two of the months which present the most significant variability in water temperature: August and March.

Statistical prediction of September Arctic Sea Ice minimum based on stable teleconnections with global climate and oceanic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad information interest exists on sea ice, its coverage, variability and long term change. Knowledge on sea ice requires high quality data on ice extent, thickness and its dynamics. However, its predictability depends on various climate parameters and conditions. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal, we developed a robust statistical model based on ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September minimum sea ice extent for every year. Although previous statistical attempts at monthly/seasonal forecasts of September sea ice minimum show a relatively reduced skill, here it is shown that more than 97% (r = 0.98) of the September sea ice extent can predicted three months in advance by using previous months conditions via a multiple linear regression model based on global sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature at 850hPa (TT850), surface winds and sea ice extent persistence. The statistical model is based on the identification of regions with stable teleconnections between the predictors (climatological parameters) and the predictand (here sea ice extent). The results based on our statistical model contribute to the sea ice prediction network for the sea ice outlook report (https://www.arcus.org/sipn) and could provide a tool for identifying relevant regions and climate parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian monsoon revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, X.; Hünicke, B.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

2015-11-01

Studies based on upwelling indices (sediment records, sea-surface temperature and wind) suggest that upwelling along the western coast of Arabian Sea is strongly affected by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). In order to examine this relationship directly, we employ the vertical water mass transport produced by the eddy-resolving global ocean simulation STORM driven by meteorological reanalysis over the last 61 years. With its very high spatial resolution (10 km), STORM allows us to identify characteristics of the upwelling system. We analyze the co-variability between upwelling and meteorological and oceanic variables from 1950 to 2010. The analyses reveal high interannual correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind-stress (r=0.73) as well as with sea-surface temperature (r0.83). However, the correlation between the upwelling and the ISM is small and other factors might contribute to the upwelling variability. In addition, no long-term trend is detected in our modeled upwelling time series.

Satellite Analysis of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Mesoscale Variability in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siegel, D. A.; Micheals, A. F.; Nelson, N. B.

1997-01-01

The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of spatial variability on the time-series of biogeochemical measurements made at the U.S. JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. Originally the study was planned to use SeaWiFS as well as AVHRR high-resolution data. Despite the SeaWiFS delays we were able to make progress on the following fronts: (1) Operational acquisition, processing, and archive of HRPT data from a ground station located in Bermuda; (2) Validation of AVHRR SST data using BATS time-series and spatial validation cruise CTD data; (3) Use of AVHRR sea surface temperature imagery and ancillary data to assess the impact of mesoscale spatial variability on P(CO2) and carbon flux in the Sargasso Sea; (4) Spatial and temporal extent of tropical cyclone induced surface modifications; and (5) Assessment of eddy variability using TOPEX/Poseidon data.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Blade, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Roberts, Jason B.; Robertson, Franklin R.

2014-01-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong

2016-02-01

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.

The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures.

PubMed

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong

2016-02-17

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO's cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.

Late Holocene sea level variability and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.; Farmer, Jesse R.; Marzen, R. E.; Thomas, E.; Varekamp, J.C.

2014-01-01

Pre-twentieth century sea level (SL) variability remains poorly understood due to limits of tide gauge records, low temporal resolution of tidal marsh records, and regional anomalies caused by dynamic ocean processes, notably multidecadal changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examined SL and AMOC variability along the eastern United States over the last 2000 years, using a SL curve constructed from proxy sea surface temperature (SST) records from Chesapeake Bay, and twentieth century SL-sea surface temperature (SST) relations derived from tide gauges and instrumental SST. The SL curve shows multidecadal-scale variability (20–30 years) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA), as well as the twentieth century. During these SL oscillations, short-term rates ranged from 2 to 4 mm yr−1, roughly similar to those of the last few decades. These oscillations likely represent internal modes of climate variability related to AMOC variability and originating at high latitudes, although the exact mechanisms remain unclear. Results imply that dynamic ocean changes, in addition to thermosteric, glacio-eustatic, or glacio-isostatic processes are an inherent part of SL variability in coastal regions, even during millennial-scale climate oscillations such as the MCA and LIA and should be factored into efforts that use tide gauges and tidal marsh sediments to understand global sea level rise.

Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with US drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Betancourt, J.L.; Gray, S.T.; Palecki, M.A.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2008-01-01

Recent research suggests a link between drought occurrence in the conterminous United States (US) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in both the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans on decadal to multidecadal (D2M) time scales. Results show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is the most consistent indicator of D2M drought variability in the conterminous US during the 20th century, but during the 19th century the tropical Pacific is a more consistent indicator of D2 M drought. The interaction between El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the AMO explain a large part of the D2M drought variability in the conterminous US. More modeling studies are needed to reveal possible mechanisms linking low-frequency ENSO variability and the AMO with drought in the conterminous US. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability.

PubMed

Booth, Ben B B; Dunstone, Nick J; Halloran, Paul R; Andrews, Timothy; Bellouin, Nicolas

2012-04-04

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

Habitat of calling blue and fin whales in the Southern California Bight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirovic, A.; Chou, E.; Roch, M. A.

2016-02-01

Northeast Pacific blue whale B calls and fin whale 20 Hz calls were detected from passive acoustic data collected over seven years at 16 sites in the Southern California Bight (SCB). Calling blue whales were most common in the coastal areas, during the summer and fall months. Fin whales began calling in fall and continued through winter, in the southcentral SCB. These data were used to develop habitat models of calling blue and fin whales in areas of high and low abundance in the SCB, using remotely sensed variables such as sea surface temperature, sea surface height, chlorophyll a, and primary productivity as model covariates. A random forest framework was used for variable selection and generalized additive models were developed to explain functional relationships, evaluate relative contribution of each significant variable, and investigate predictive abilities of models of calling whales. Seasonal component was an important feature of all models. Additionally, areas of high calling blue and fin whale abundance both had a positive relationship with the sea surface temperature. In areas of lower abundance, chlorophyll a concentration and primary productivity were important variables for blue whale models and sea surface height and primary productivity were significant covariates in fin whale models. Predictive models were generally better for predicting general trends than absolute values, but there was a large degree of variation in year-to-year predictability across different sites.

The Spatial Coherence of Interannual Temperature Variations in the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, John C.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Over 50 years of observations from climate stations on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula show that this is a region of extreme interannual variability in near-surface temperatures. The region has also experienced more rapid warming than any other part of the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper we use a new dataset of satellite-derived surface temperatures to define the extent of the region of extreme variability more clearly than was possible using the sparse station data. The region in which satellite surface temperatures correlate strongly with west Peninsula station temperatures is found to be quite small and is largely confined to the seas just west of the Peninsula, with a northward and eastward extension into the Scotia Sea and a southward extension onto the western slopes of Palmer Land. Correlation of Peninsula surface temperatures with surface temperatures over the rest of continental Antarctica is poor confirming that the west Peninsula is in a different climate regime. The analysis has been used to identify sites where ice core proxy records might be representative of variations on the west coast of the Peninsula. Of the five existing core sites examined, only one is likely to provide a representative record for the west coast.

The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

2017-08-01

The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

Impact of change in climate and policy from 1988 to 2007 on environmental and microbial variables at the time series station Boknis Eck, Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoppe, H.-G.; Giesenhagen, H. C.; Koppe, R.; Hansen, H.-P.; Gocke, K.

2012-12-01

Phytoplankton and bacteria are sensitive indicators of environmental change. The temporal development of these key organisms was monitored from 1988 to the end of 2007 at the time series station Boknis Eck in the Western Baltic Sea. This period was characterized by the adaption of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to changes in the environmental conditions caused by the collapse and conversion of the political system in the Southern and Eastern Border States, accompanied by the general effects of global climate change. Measured variables were chlorophyll, primary production, bacteria number, -biomass and -production, glucose turnover rate, macro-nutrients, pH, temperature and salinity. Negative trends with time were recorded for chlorophyll, the bacterial variables, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, silicate, oxygen and salinity while temperature, pH, and the ratio between bacteria numbers and chlorophyll increased. The strongest reductions with time occurred for the annual maximum values, e.g. for chlorophyll during the spring bloom or for nitrate during winter, while the annual minimum values remained more stable. In deep water above sediment the negative trends of oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and bacterial variables as well as the positive trend of temperature were similar to those in the surface while the trends of salinity, ammonia and silicate were opposite to those in the surface. Decreasing oxygen even in the surface layer was of particular interest because it suggested enhanced recycling of nutrients from the deep hypoxic zones to the surface by vertical mixing. In the long run all variables correlated positively with temperature, except chlorophyll and salinity. Salinity correlated negatively with all bacterial variables as well as precipitation and positively with chlorophyll. Surprisingly, bacterial variables did not correlate with chlorophyll which may be inherent with the time lag between the peaks of phytoplankton and bacteria during spring. Compared to the 20-yr averages of the environmental and microbial variables, the strongest negative deviations of corresponding annual averages were measured about ten years after political change for nitrate and bacterial secondary production (~ -60%), followed by chlorophyll (-50%) and bacterial biomass (-40%). Considering the circulation of surface currents in the Baltic Sea we conclude that the improved management of water resources after 1989 together with the trends of the climate variables salinity and temperature were responsible for the observed patterns of the microbial variables at the Boknis Eck time series station.

Understanding Arctic surface temperature differences in reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullather, R. I.; Zhao, B.; Shuman, C. A.; Nowicki, S.

2017-12-01

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. For example, the 1980-2009 mean surface air temperature for the north polar cap (70°N-90°N) among global reanalyses span a range of 2.4 K, which approximates the average warming trend from these reanalyses over the 30-year period of 2.1 K. Understanding these differences requires evaluation over the three principal surface domains of the Arctic: glaciated land, the unglaciated terrestrial surface, and sea ice/ocean. An examination is conducted of contemporary global reanalyses of the ECMWF Interim project, NASA MERRA, MERRA-2, JRA-55, and NOAA CFSR using available in situ data and assessments of the surface energy budget. Overly-simplistic representations of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface are found to be associated with local warm air temperature biases in winter. A review of progress made in the development of the MERRA-2 land-ice representation is presented. Large uncertainty is also found in temperatures over the Arctic tundra and boreal forest zone. But a key focus of temperature differences for northern high latitudes is the Arctic Ocean. Near-surface air temperature differences over the Arctic Ocean are found to be related to discrepancies in sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary data, which are severely compromised in current reanalyses. Issues with the modeled representation of sea ice cover are an additional factor in reanalysis temperature trends. Differences in the representation of the surface energy budget among the various reanalyses are also reviewed.

Understanding Arctic Surface Temperature Differences in Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard; Zhao, Bin; Shuman, Christopher; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Reanalyses in the Arctic are widely used for model evaluation and for understanding contemporary climate change. Nevertheless, differences among reanalyses in fundamental meteorological variables including surface air temperature are large. For example, the 1980-2009 mean surface air temperature for the north polar cap (70ÂdegN-90ÂdegN) among global reanalyses span a range of 2.4 K, which approximates the average warming trend from these reanalyses over the 30-year period of 2.1 K. Understanding these differences requires evaluation over the three principal surface domains of the Arctic: glaciated land, the unglaciated terrestrial surface, and sea ice/ocean. An examination is conducted of contemporary global reanalyses of the ECMWF Interim project, NASA MERRA, MERRA-2, JRA-55, and NOAA CFSR using available in situ data and assessments of the surface energy budget. Overly-simplistic representations of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface are found to be associated with local warm air temperature biases in winter. A review of progress made in the development of the MERRA-2 land-ice representation is presented. Large uncertainty is also found in temperatures over the Arctic tundra and boreal forest zone. But a key focus of temperature differences for northern high latitudes is the Arctic Ocean. Near-surface air temperature differences over the Arctic Ocean are found to be related to discrepancies in sea ice and sea surface temperature boundary data, which are severely compromised in current reanalyses. Issues with the modeled representation of sea ice cover are an additional factor in reanalysis temperature trends. Differences in the representation of the surface energy budget among the various reanalyses are also reviewed.

Ice Surface Temperature Variability in the Polar Regions and the Relationships to 2 Meter Air Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyer, J.; Madsen, K. S.; Englyst, P. N.

2017-12-01

Determining the surface and near surface air temperature from models or observations in the Polar Regions is challenging due to the extreme conditions and the lack of in situ observations. The errors in near surface temperature products are typically larger than for other regions of the world, and the potential for using Earth Observations is large. As part of the EU project, EUSTACE, we have developed empirical models for the relationship between the satellite observed skin ice temperatures and 2m air temperatures. We use the Arctic and Antarctic Sea and sea ice Surface Temperatures from thermal Infrared satellite sensors (AASTI) reanalysis to estimate daily surface air temperature over land ice and sea ice for the Arctic and the Antarctic. Large efforts have been put into collecting and quality controlling in situ observations from various data portals and research projects. The reconstruction is independent of numerical weather prediction models and thus provides an important alternative to modelled air temperature estimates. The new surface air temperature data record has been validated against more than 58.000 independent in situ measurements for the four surface types: Arctic sea ice, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic sea ice and Antarctic ice sheet. The average correlations are 92-97% and average root mean square errors are 3.1-3.6°C for the four surface types. The root mean square error includes the uncertainty of the in-situ measurement, which ranges from 0.5 to 2°C. A comparison with ERA-Interim shows a consistently better performance of the satellite based air temperatures than the ERA-Interim for the Greenland ice sheet, when compared against observations not used in any of the two estimates. This is encouraging and demonstrates the values of these products. In addition, the procedure presented here works on satellite observations that are available in near real time and this opens up for a near real time estimation of the surface air temperature over ice from satellites.

The absence of an Atlantic imprint on the multidecadal variability of wintertime European temperature.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Ayako; Palter, Jaime B

2016-03-15

Northern Hemisphere climate responds sensitively to multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). It is therefore surprising that an imprint of such variability is conspicuously absent in wintertime western European temperature, despite that Europe's climate is strongly influenced by its neighbouring ocean, where multidecadal variability in basin-average SST persists in all seasons. Here we trace the cause of this missing imprint to a dynamic anomaly of the atmospheric circulation that masks its thermodynamic response to SST anomalies. Specifically, differences in the pathways Lagrangian particles take to Europe during anomalous SST winters suppress the expected fluctuations in air-sea heat exchange accumulated along those trajectories. Because decadal variability in North Atlantic-average SST may be driven partly by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the atmosphere's dynamical adjustment to this mode of variability may have important implications for the European wintertime temperature response to a projected twenty-first century AMOC decline.

Retrieving Temperature Anomaly in the Global Subsurface and Deeper Ocean From Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Hua; Li, Wene; Yan, Xiao-Hai

2018-01-01

Retrieving the subsurface and deeper ocean (SDO) dynamic parameters from satellite observations is crucial for effectively understanding ocean interior anomalies and dynamic processes, but it is challenging to accurately estimate the subsurface thermal structure over the global scale from sea surface parameters. This study proposes a new approach based on Random Forest (RF) machine learning to retrieve subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the global ocean from multisource satellite observations including sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA), and sea surface wind anomaly (SSWA) via in situ Argo data for RF training and testing. RF machine-learning approach can accurately retrieve the STA in the global ocean from satellite observations of sea surface parameters (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA). The Argo STA data were used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the results from the RF model. The results indicated that SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, and SSWA together are useful parameters for detecting SDO thermal information and obtaining accurate STA estimations. The proposed method also outperformed support vector regression (SVR) in global STA estimation. It will be a useful technique for studying SDO thermal variability and its role in global climate system from global-scale satellite observations.

North Atlantic sub-decadal variability in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reintges, Annika; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2017-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant variability mode for the winter climate of the North Atlantic sector. During a positive (negative) NAO phase, the sea level pressure (SLP) difference between the subtropical Azores high and the subpolar Icelandic low is anomalously strong (weak). This affects, for example, temperature, precipitation, wind, and surface heat flux over the North Atlantic, and over large parts of Europe. In observations we find enhanced sub-decadal variability of the NAO index that goes along with a dipolar sea surface temperature (SST) pattern. The corresponding SLP and SST patterns are reproduced in a control experiment of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Large-scale air-sea interaction is suggested to be essential for the North Atlantic sub-decadal variability in the KCM. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a key role, setting the timescale of the variability by providing a delayed negative feedback to the NAO. The interplay of the NAO and the AMOC on the sub-decadal timescale is further investigated in the CMIP5 model ensemble. For example, the average CMIP5 model AMOC pattern associated with sub-decadal variability is characterized by a deep-reaching dipolar structure, similar to the KCM's sub-decadal AMOC variability pattern. The results suggest that dynamical air-sea interactions are crucial to generate enhanced sub-decadal variability in the North Atlantic climate.

Suppression of ENSO in a coupled model without water vapor feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, A.; Manabe, S.

We examine 800-year time series of internally generated variability in both a coupled ocean-atmosphere model where water vapor anomalies are not allowed to interact with longwave radiation and one where they are. The ENSO-like phenomenon in the experiment without water vapor feedback is drastically suppressed both in amplitude and geographic extent relative to the experiment with water vapor feedback. Surprisingly, the reduced amplitude of ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies in the model without water vapor feedback cannot be attributed to greater longwave damping of sea surface temperature. (Differences between the two experiments in radiative feedback due to clouds counterbalance almost perfectly the differences in radiative feedback due to water vapor.) Rather, the interaction between water vapor anomalies and longwave radiation affects the ENSO-like phenomenon through its influence on the vertical structure of radiative heating: Because of the changes in water vapor associated with it, a given warm equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly is associated with a radiative heating profile that is much more gravitationally unstable when water vapor feedback is present. The warm sea surface temperature anomaly therefore results in more convection in the experiment with water vapor feedback. The increased convection, in turn, is related to a larger westerly wind-stress anomaly, which creates a larger decrease in upwelling of cold water, thereby enhancing the magnitude of the original warm sea surface temperature anomaly. In this manner, the interaction between water vapor anomalies and longwave radiation magnifies the air-sea interactions at the heart of the ENSO phenomenon; without this interaction, the coupling between sea surface temperature and wind stress is effectively reduced, resulting in smaller amplitude ENSO episodes with a more limited geographical extent.

Impact of change in climate and policy from 1988 to 2007 on environmental and microbial variables at the time series station Boknis Eck, Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoppe, H.-G.; Giesenhagen, H. C.; Koppe, R.; Hansen, H.-P.; Gocke, K.

2013-07-01

Phytoplankton and bacteria are sensitive indicators of environmental change. The temporal development of these key organisms was monitored from 1988 to the end of 2007 at the time series station Boknis Eck in the western Baltic Sea. This period was characterized by the adaption of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to changes in the environmental conditions caused by the conversion of the political system in the southern and eastern border states, accompanied by the general effects of global climate change. Measured variables were chlorophyll, primary production, bacteria number, -biomass and -production, glucose turnover rate, macro-nutrients, pH, temperature and salinity. Negative trends with time were recorded for chlorophyll, bacteria number, bacterial biomass and bacterial production, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, silicate, oxygen and salinity while temperature, pH, and the ratio between bacteria numbers and chlorophyll increased. Strongest reductions with time occurred for the annual maximum values, e.g. for chlorophyll during the spring bloom or for nitrate during winter, while the annual minimum values remained more stable. In deep water above sediment the negative trends of oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and bacterial variables as well as the positive trend of temperature were similar to those in the surface while the trends of salinity, ammonia and silicate were opposite to those in the surface. Decreasing oxygen, even in the surface layer, was of particular interest because it suggested enhanced recycling of nutrients from the deep hypoxic zones to the surface by vertical mixing. The long-term seasonal patterns of all variables correlated positively with temperature, except chlorophyll and salinity. Salinity correlated negatively with all bacterial variables (as well as precipitation) and positively with chlorophyll. Surprisingly, bacterial variables did not correlate with chlorophyll, which may be inherent with the time lag between the peaks of phytoplankton and bacteria during spring. Compared to the 20-yr averages of the environmental and microbial variables, the strongest negative deviations of corresponding annual averages were measured about ten years after political change for nitrate and bacterial secondary production (~ -60%), followed by chlorophyll (-50%) and bacterial biomass (-40%). Considering the circulation of surface currents in the Baltic Sea we interpret the observed patterns of the microbial variables at the Boknis Eck time series station as a consequence of the improved management of water resources after 1989 and - to a minor extent - the trends of the climate variables salinity and temperature.

The 30-60-day Intraseasonal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea dur1ing May-September

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Jiangyu; Wang, Ming

2018-05-01

This study investigates the structure and propagation of intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the South China Sea (SCS) on the 30-60-day timescale during boreal summer (May-September). TRMM-based SST, GODAS oceanic reanalysis and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis datasets from 1998 to 2013 are used to examine quantitatively the atmospheric thermodynamic and oceanic dynamic mechanisms responsible for its formation. Power spectra show that the 30-60-day SST variability is predominant, accounting for 60% of the variance of the 10-90-day variability over most of the SCS. Composite analyses demonstrate that the 30-60-day SST variability is characterized by the alternate occurrence of basin-wide positive and negative SST anomalies in the SCS, with positive (negative) SST anomalies accompanied by anomalous northeasterlies (southwesterlies). The transition and expansion of SST anomalies are driven by the monsoonal trough-ridge seesaw pattern that migrates northward from the equator to the northern SCS. Quantitative diagnosis of the composite mixed-layer heat budgets shows that, within a strong 30-60-day cycle, the atmospheric thermal forcing is indeed a dominant factor, with the mixed-layer net heat flux (MNHF) contributing around 60% of the total SST tendency, while vertical entrainment contributes more than 30%. However, the entrainment-induced SST tendency is sometimes as large as the MNHF-induced component, implying that ocean processes are sometimes as important as surface fluxes in generating the 30-60-day SST variability in the SCS.

Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

2017-03-01

Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

Dynamics behind warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea and its interruption based on in situ measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathew, Simi; Natesan, Usha; Latha, Ganesan; Venkatesan, Ramasamy

2018-05-01

A study of the inter-annual variability of the warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) during the spring transition months was carried out from 2013 to 2015 based on in situ data from moored buoys. An attempt was made to identify the roles of the different variables in the warming of the SEAS (e.g., net heat flux, advection, entrainment, and thickness of the barrier layer during the previous northeast monsoon season). The intense freshening of the SEAS (approximately 2 PSU) occurring in each December, together with the presence of a downwelling Rossby wave, supports the formation of a thick barrier layer during the northeast monsoon season. It is known that the barrier layer thickness, varying each year, plays a major role in the spring warming of the SEAS. Interestingly, an anomalously thick barrier layer occurred during the northeast monsoon season of 2012-2013. However, the highest sea surface temperature (31 °C) was recorded during the last week of April 2015, while the lowest sea surface temperature (29.7 °C) was recorded during the last week of May 2013. The mixed layer heat budget analysis during the spring transition months proved that the intense warming has been mainly supported by the net heat flux, not by other factors like advection and entrainment. The inter-annual variability analysis of the net heat flux and its components, averaged over a box region of the SEAS, showed a substantial latent heat flux release and a reduction in net shortwave radiation in 2013. Both factors contributed to the negative net heat flux. Strong breaks in the warming were also observed in May due to the entrainment of cold sub-surface waters. These events are associated with the cyclonic eddy persisting over the SEAS during the same time. The entrainment term, favoring the cooling, was stronger in 2015 than that in 2013 and 2014. The surface temperatures measured in 2013 were lower than those in 2014 and 2015 despite the presence of a thick barrier layer. The substantial decrease in net heat flux along with entrainment cooling has been identified as causes for this behavior.

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

DOE PAGES

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; ...

2016-02-17

Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less

Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte, R. M.; Piecuch, C. G.

2018-04-01

Global mean sea surface temperature (T¯) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of T¯ can be influenced by surface heat fluxes (F¯) and by diffusion (D¯) and advection (A¯) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed T¯ budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent T¯, shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to F¯, D¯, or A¯, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in T¯ is mostly determined by small imbalances between F¯ and D¯, with negligible contributions from A¯. While D¯ seems to simply damp F¯ at the annual period, a different dynamical role for D¯ at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than F¯. At periods longer than annual, A¯ contributes importantly to T¯ variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on T¯ and mean surface climate.

Decadal-timescale changes of the Atlantic overturning circulation and climate in a coupled climate model with a hybrid-coordinate ocean component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persechino, A.; Marsh, R.; Sinha, B.; Megann, A. P.; Blaker, A. T.; New, A. L.

2012-08-01

A wide range of statistical tools is used to investigate the decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated key variables in a climate model (CHIME, Coupled Hadley-Isopycnic Model Experiment), which features a novel ocean component. CHIME is as similar as possible to the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) with the important exception that its ocean component is based on a hybrid vertical coordinate. Power spectral analysis reveals enhanced AMOC variability for periods in the range 15-30 years. Strong AMOC conditions are associated with: (1) a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly pattern reminiscent of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) response, but associated with variations in a northern tropical-subtropical gradient; (2) a Surface Air Temperature anomaly pattern closely linked to SST; (3) a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern; (4) a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The primary mode of AMOC variability is associated with decadal changes in the Labrador Sea and the Greenland Iceland Norwegian (GIN) Seas, in both cases linked to the tropical activity about 15 years earlier. These decadal changes are controlled by the low-frequency NAO that may be associated with a rapid atmospheric teleconnection from the tropics to the extratropics. Poleward advection of salinity anomalies in the mixed layer also leads to AMOC changes that are linked to processes in the Labrador Sea. A secondary mode of AMOC variability is associated with interannual changes in the Labrador and GIN Seas, through the impact of the NAO on local surface density.

Subsurface temperature estimation from climatology and satellite SST for the sea around Korean Peninsula 1Bong-Guk, Kim, 1Yang-Ki, Cho, 1Bong-Gwan, Kim, 1Young-Gi, Kim, 1Ji-Hoon, Jung 1School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Bong-Guk; Cho, Yang-Ki; Kim, Bong-Gwan; Kim, Young-Gi; Jung, Ji-Hoon

2015-04-01

Subsurface temperature plays an important role in determining heat contents in the upper ocean which are crucial in long-term and short-term weather systems. Furthermore, subsurface temperature affects significantly ocean ecology. In this study, a simple and practical algorithm has proposed. If we assume that subsurface temperature changes are proportional to surface heating or cooling, subsurface temperature at each depth (Sub_temp) can be estimated as follows PIC whereiis depth index, Clm_temp is temperature from climatology, dif0 is temperature difference between satellite and climatology in the surface, and ratio is ratio of temperature variability in each depth to surface temperature variability. Subsurface temperatures using this algorithm from climatology (WOA2013) and satellite SST (OSTIA) where calculated in the sea around Korean peninsula. Validation result with in-situ observation data show good agreement in the upper 50 m layer with RMSE (root mean square error) less than 2 K. The RMSE is smallest with less than 1 K in winter when surface mixed layer is thick, and largest with about 2~3 K in summer when surface mixed layer is shallow. The strong thermocline and large variability of the mixed layer depth might result in large RMSE in summer. Applying of mixed layer depth information for the algorithm may improve subsurface temperature estimation in summer. Spatial-temporal details on the improvement and its causes will be discussed.

Wind-driven changes of surface current, temperature, and chlorophyll observed by satellites north of New Guinea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radenac, Marie-Hélène; Léger, Fabien; Messié, Monique; Dutrieux, Pierre; Menkes, Christophe; Eldin, Gérard

2016-04-01

Satellite observations of wind, sea level and derived currents, sea surface temperature (SST), and chlorophyll are used to expand our understanding of the physical and biological variability of the ocean surface north of New Guinea. Based on scarce cruise and mooring data, previous studies differentiated a trade wind situation (austral winter) when the New Guinea Coastal Current (NGCC) flows northwestward and a northwest monsoon situation (austral summer) when a coastal upwelling develops and the NGCC reverses. This circulation pattern is confirmed by satellite observations, except in Vitiaz Strait where the surface northwestward flow persists. We find that intraseasonal and seasonal time scale variations explain most of the variance north of New Guinea. SST and chlorophyll variabilities are mainly driven by two processes: penetration of Solomon Sea waters and coastal upwelling. In the trade wind situation, the NGCC transports cold Solomon Sea waters through Vitiaz Strait in a narrow vein hugging the coast. Coastal upwelling is generated in westerly wind situations (westerly wind event, northwest monsoon). Highly productive coastal waters are advected toward the equator and, during some westerly wind events, toward the eastern part of the warm pool. During El Niño, coastal upwelling events and northward penetration of Solomon Sea waters combine to influence SST and chlorophyll anomalies.

Is Global Warming Accelerating?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

2009-12-01

A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

Seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks as determined from NCEP/NCAR ranalysis. Part I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yanai, Michio; Tomita, Tomohiko

1997-11-01

In this paper, an analysis of the heat and moisture budgets of the troposphere is revised and extended. The analysis is based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis from 1980 to 1994. The seasonal and interannual variability of heat sources and sinks and the nature of heating over various geographical locations is examined in detail. Results presented include global distributions of the 15-year mean of the vertically integrated heat source and moisture sink and the outgoing longwave radiation flux for northern winter and northern summer. A time series of monthlymore » mean anomalies of the apparent heat source, the apparent moisture sink, outgoing longwave radiation, sea surface temperature, and divergence at wind fields of 850 hPa and 200 hPa are presented for the equatorial Indian Ocean, the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, western Tibet, and eastern Tibet. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, short period oscillation is superimposed upon longer periods. Over the eastern Pacific, a longer periodicity is dominant and the variability of the heat source is very well correlated with similar variations of outgoing longwave radiation, sea surface temperature, and horizontal divergence. The high correlation with these variables suggests that anomalous heating is accompanied by intensified convective activity favored by warmer sea surface temperature. 13 refs., 5 figs.« less

Evaluating hydrography, circulation and transport in a coastal archipelago using a high-resolution 3D hydrodynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuomi, Laura; Miettunen, Elina; Alenius, Pekka; Myrberg, Kai

2018-04-01

We used a 3D hydrodynamic model, COHERENS, to simulate the temperature, salinity and currents in an extremely complicated area, the Archipelago Sea in the Baltic Sea. The high-resolution model domain with approximately 460 m resolution was nested inside a coarser resolution ( 3.7 km) grid covering the entire Baltic Sea. The verification of the model results against temperature and salinity measurements showed that the model well captured the seasonal temperature cycle in the surface layer, both in the inner and outer archipelago. In the inner archipelago, the model tended to reproduce higher temperatures in the bottom layer than were measured. The modelled vertical temperature and salinity stratifications were not as pronounced as the measured ones but did describe the overall vertical structure. There was large year-to-year variability in the annual mean surface circulation, both in direction and magnitude. In the deeper channels crossing the Archipelago Sea, there were some year-to-year differences in the magnitudes of the bottom layer currents, but there was very little difference in the directions. These differences were studied by introducing passive tracers into the model through river discharge and as point sources. The results showed that the prevailing wind conditions resulted in southward net transport from the Bothnian Sea towards the Baltic Proper. However, due to the variability in the wind conditions in some years, a significant proportion of transport can also be towards north, from the Baltic Proper to the Bothnian Sea.

Conditions leading to the unprecedented low Antarctic sea ice extent during the 2016 austral spring season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuecker, Malte F.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Armour, Kyle C.

2017-09-01

The 2016 austral spring was characterized by the lowest Southern Hemisphere (SH) sea ice extent seen in the satellite record (1979 to present) and coincided with anomalously warm surface waters surrounding most of Antarctica. We show that two distinct processes contributed to this event: First, the extreme El Niño event peaking in December-February 2015/2016 contributed to pronounced extratropical SH sea surface temperature and sea ice extent anomalies in the eastern Ross, Amundsen, and Bellingshausen Seas that persisted in part until the following 2016 austral spring. Second, internal unforced atmospheric variability of the Southern Annular Mode promoted the exceptional low sea ice extent in November-December 2016. These results suggest that a combination of tropically forced and internal SH atmospheric variability contributed to the unprecedented sea ice decline during the 2016 austral spring, on top of a background of slow changes expected from greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

Assessing Northern Hemisphere Land-Atmosphere Hotspots Using Dynamical Adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, Anna; Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Xie, Shang-Ping

2017-04-01

Understanding the influence of soil moisture on surface air temperature (SAT) is made more challenging by large-scale, internal atmospheric variability present in the midlatitude summer atmosphere. In this study, dynamical adjustment is used to characterize and remove summer SAT variability associated with large-scale circulation patterns in the Community Earth System Model large ensemble (CESM-LE). The adjustment is performed over North America and Europe with two different circulation indicators: sea level pressure (SLP) and 500mb height (Z500). The removal of dynamical "noise" leaves residual SAT variability in the central U.S. and Mediterranean regions identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere interaction (e.g. Koster et al. 2004, Seneviratne et al. 2006). The residual SAT variability "signal" is not clearly related to modes of sea surface temperature (SST) variability, but is related to local soil moisture, evaporative fraction, and radiation availability. These local relationships suggest that residual SAT variability is representative of the aggregate land surface signal. SLP dynamical adjustment removes ˜15% more variability in the central U.S. hotspot region than Z500 dynamical adjustment. Similar amounts of variability are removed by SLP and Z500 in the Mediterranean region. Differences in SLP and Z500 signal magnitude in the central U.S. are likely due to the modification of SLP by local land surface conditions, while the proximity of European hotspots to the Mediterranean sea mitigates the land surface influence. Variations in the Z500 field more closely resemble large-scale midlatitude circulation patterns and therefore Z500 may be a more suitable circulation indicator for summer dynamical adjustment. Changes in the residual SAT variability signal under increased greenhouse gas forcing will also be explored.

Short-term climatic fluctuations forced by thermal anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanna, A. F.

1982-01-01

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate was developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic (linear balance). Static stability is variable in the model. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only. Convective adjustment is used to avoid supercritical temperature lapse rates. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a vertical velocity at the lower boundary. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. The differential diabatic heating between land and sea is paramterized. On land and sea ice surfaces, a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. On the oceans, the sea surface temperature is specified as the climatological average for January. The model is used to simulate the January, February and March circulations.

Sea ice and oceanic processes on the Ross Sea continental shelf

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobs, S. S.; Comiso, J. C.

1989-01-01

The spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic sea ice concentrations on the Ross Sea continental shelf have been investigated in relation to oceanic and atmospheric forcing. Sea ice data were derived from Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) brightness temperatures from 1979-1986. Ice cover over the shelf was persistently lower than above the adjacent deep ocean, averaging 86 percent during winter with little month-to-month of interannual variability. The large spring Ross Sea polynya on the western shelf results in a longer period of summer insolation, greater surface layer heat storage, and later ice formation in that region the following autumn.

Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Furevik, T.; Zhou, T.

To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1-3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC yields a NAO-like pattern with intensified Icelandic low and Azores high, and a warming of 0.25-0.5 °C of the central North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST). The reanalysis forced simulations indicate a coupling between the Labrador Sea Water production rate and an equatorial Atlantic SST index in accordance with observations. This coupling is not identified in the coupled simulation.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature.

PubMed

Chaidez, V; Dreano, D; Agusti, S; Duarte, C M; Hoteit, I

2017-08-15

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade -1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century 1 . However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade -1 , while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade -1 , all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

Physical Mechanism of the Surface Air Temperature Variability in Korea and Near Seven-Day Oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, K.; Roh, J.

2009-12-01

The first three principal modes of wintertime surface temperature variability in Seoul, Korea (126.59°E, 37.33°N) are extracted from the 1979-2008 observed records via cyclostationary EOF (CSEOF) analysis. Then, physically consistent patterns of several key physical variables over East Asia (97.5°-152.5°E×22.5°-72.5°N) are derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to understand the physical and dynamical mechanisms of the derived CSEOF modes. The first mode represents the seasonal cycle, the principle physical mechanism of which is associated with the continent/ocean sea level pressure contrast. The second mode mainly describes overall wintertime warming or cooling. The third mode depicts subseasonal fluctuations of surface temperature. Sea level pressure anomalies to the west of Korea (eastern China) and those with an opposite sign to the east of Korea (Japan) are a major physical mechanism both for the second mode and the third mode. These sea level pressure anomalies with opposite signs alter the amount of warm air to the south of Korea, which, in turn, varies the surface temperature in Korea. The PC time series of the seasonal cycle is significantly correlated with the East Asian winter monsoon index and exhibits a conspicuous downward trend. The PC time series of the second mode exhibits a positive trend. These trends imply that the wintertime surface temperature in Korea has increased and the seasonal cycle has weakened gradually in the past 30 years; the sign of greenhouse warming is clear in both PC time series. The seasonal cycle has decreased since the impact of warming as reflected in the sea level pressure change is much stronger over the continent than over the ocean; greater sea level pressure decrease over the continent than over the ocean reduces the wintertime sea level pressure contrast between the continent and the ocean thereby weakening the seasonal cycle. The ~7-day oscillations, also called the three-cold-day/four-warm-day events, are clearly seen in the second and the third CSEOF modes. The ~7-day oscillations are a major component of high-frequency variability in much of the analysis domain and are a manifestation of Rossby waves. Rossby waves aloft result in the concerted variation of physical variables in the atmospheric column; the nature of this response is of nearly barotropic and is clearly felt at the surface. Due to the stronger mean zonal wind, the disturbances by Rossby waves propagate eastward at ~8-12 m/sec; the passing of Rossby waves with alternating signs produces the ~7-day temperature oscillations in Korea. Thus, it is the speed of eastward propagation of Rossby waves not the phase speed of Rossby waves that determines the period of oscillations.

Middle Pliocene sea surface temperature variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Chandler, M.A.; Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, Gary S.

2005-01-01

Estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) based upon foraminifer, diatom, and ostracod assemblages from ocean cores reveal a warm phase of the Pliocene between about 3.3 and 3.0 Ma. Pollen records and plant megafossils, although not as well dated, show evidence for a warmer climate at about the same time. Increased greenhouse forcing and altered ocean heat transport are the leading candidates for the underlying cause of Pliocene global warmth. Despite being a period of global warmth, this interval encompasses considerable variability. Two new SST reconstructions are presented that are designed to provide a climatological error bar for warm peak phases of the Pliocene and to document the spatial distribution and magnitude of SST variability within the mid-Pliocene warm period. These data suggest long-term stability of low-latitude SST and document greater variability in regions of maximum warming. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Late Quaternary Palaeoceanographic Changes in Sea Surface Conditions in the Tropical Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischel, Andrea; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Kuijpers, Antoon; Nürnberg, Dirk

2013-04-01

Palaeoceanographic changes and the variability in surface water mass hydrography are reconstructed in order to track tropical ocean and climate variability and inter-hemispheric heat exchange through the last 42,000 year BP. Our studies are based on the relative abundance of planktonic foraminifera combined with sea surface temperature approximation based Mg/Ca measurements, XRF scanning and stable oxygen isotope analyses in a 5 m long gravity core Ga307-Win-12GC (17°50.80N, 64°48.7290W), retrieved in the Virgin Island Basin in approx. 3,960 m water depth. The Virgin Island Basin is the deepest part of the Anegada-Jungfern Passage in the northeast Caribbean, one of the most important pathways for water mass exchange between the Central Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. Due to its bathymetry surface waters as well as deep water mass strata from the northern and southern hemisphere enter the basin, comprising Caribbean Surface Water (CSW), Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Atlantic Intermediate Water (AIW) and North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). The planktonic foraminiferal assemblage suggests rather stable sea-surface conditions during the Holocene in the NE Caribbean. However, major changes in the hydrographic setting could be identified within the glacial period. During the glacial period, clear millennial-scale variability in sea-surface temperature and productivity are present. Fluctuations in the relative abundance of Globigerinoides ruber in the sediment core may be correlated to Dansgaard-Oeschger events in the northern North Atlantic. Furthermore an increase in relative abundance of Globorotalia rubescens occurs synchronous with ice rafted debris layers described from the North Atlantic. The faunal changes in the tropical Atlantic may thus be correlated to major climate changes in the North Atlantic, mainly D-O cyclicity as well as Heinrich events. Thus, the synchronous change in water mass distribution and hydrographic cyclicity suggests a possible linkage between tropical and North Atlantic Ocean variability during the Late Quaternary.

A Possible Cause for Recent Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, Mojib; Park, Taewook; Park, Wonsun

2017-04-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major oceanic current system with widespread climate impacts. AMOC influences have been discussed among others with regard to Atlantic hurricane activity, regional sea level variability, and surface air temperature and precipitation changes on land areas adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. Most climate models project significant AMOC slowing during the 21st century, if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise unabatedly. Recently, a marked decadal decline in AMOC strength has been observed, which was followed by strongly reduced oceanic poleward heat transport and record low sea surface temperature in parts of the North Atlantic. Here, we provide evidence from observations, re-analyses and climate models that the AMOC decline was due to the combined action of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern, the two leading modes of North Atlantic atmospheric surface pressure variability, which prior to the decline both transitioned into their negative phases. This change in atmospheric circulation diminished oceanic heat loss over the Labrador Sea and forced ocean circulation changes lowering upper ocean salinity transport into that region. As a consequence, Labrador Sea deep convection weakened, which eventually slowed the AMOC. This study suggests a new mechanism for decadal AMOC variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability and climate change detection in the North Atlantic sector.

A reanalysis dataset of the South China Sea.

PubMed

Zeng, Xuezhi; Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Zhijin; Qi, Yiquan; Chen, Rongyu

2014-01-01

Ocean reanalysis provides a temporally continuous and spatially gridded four-dimensional estimate of the ocean state for a better understanding of the ocean dynamics and its spatial/temporal variability. Here we present a 19-year (1992-2010) high-resolution ocean reanalysis dataset of the upper ocean in the South China Sea (SCS) produced from an ocean data assimilation system. A wide variety of observations, including in-situ temperature/salinity profiles, ship-measured and satellite-derived sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimetry, are assimilated into the outputs of an ocean general circulation model using a multi-scale incremental three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, yielding a daily high-resolution reanalysis dataset of the SCS. Comparisons between the reanalysis and independent observations support the reliability of the dataset. The presented dataset provides the research community of the SCS an important data source for studying the thermodynamic processes of the ocean circulation and meso-scale features in the SCS, including their spatial and temporal variability.

A reanalysis dataset of the South China Sea

PubMed Central

Zeng, Xuezhi; Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Zhijin; Qi, Yiquan; Chen, Rongyu

2014-01-01

Ocean reanalysis provides a temporally continuous and spatially gridded four-dimensional estimate of the ocean state for a better understanding of the ocean dynamics and its spatial/temporal variability. Here we present a 19-year (1992–2010) high-resolution ocean reanalysis dataset of the upper ocean in the South China Sea (SCS) produced from an ocean data assimilation system. A wide variety of observations, including in-situ temperature/salinity profiles, ship-measured and satellite-derived sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimetry, are assimilated into the outputs of an ocean general circulation model using a multi-scale incremental three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, yielding a daily high-resolution reanalysis dataset of the SCS. Comparisons between the reanalysis and independent observations support the reliability of the dataset. The presented dataset provides the research community of the SCS an important data source for studying the thermodynamic processes of the ocean circulation and meso-scale features in the SCS, including their spatial and temporal variability. PMID:25977803

Relationship between the Arctic oscillation and surface air temperature in multi-decadal time-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Tamura, Mina

2016-09-01

In this study, a simple energy balance model (EBM) was integrated in time, considering a hypothetical long-term variability in ice-albedo feedback mimicking the observed multi-decadal temperature variability. A natural variability was superimposed on a linear warming trend due to the increasing radiative forcing of CO2. The result demonstrates that the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend can offset with each other to show the warming hiatus for some period. It is also stressed that the rapid warming during 1970-2000 can be explained by the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend at least within the simple model. The key process of the fluctuating planetary albedo in multi-decadal time scale is investigated using the JRA-55 reanalysis data. It is found that the planetary albedo increased for 1958-1970, decreased for 1970-2000, and increased for 2000-2012, as expected by the simple EBM experiments. The multi-decadal variability in the planetary albedo is compared with the time series of the AO mode and Barents Sea mode of surface air temperature. It is shown that the recent AO negative pattern showing warm Arctic and cold mid-latitudes is in good agreement with planetary albedo change indicating negative anomaly in high latitudes and positive anomaly in mid-latitudes. Moreover, the Barents Sea mode with the warm Barents Sea and cold mid-latitudes shows long-term variability similar to planetary albedo change. Although further studies are needed, the natural variabilities of both the AO mode and Barents Sea mode indicate some possible link to the planetary albedo as suggested by the simple EBM to cause the warming hiatus in recent years.

Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

PubMed

Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

2017-12-31

Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent 121-year variability of western boundary upwelling in the northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yi; Peng, Zicheng; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Zhou, Renjun; Song, Shaohua; Shi, Zhengguo; Chen, Tegu; Wei, Gangjian; Delong, Kristine L.

2013-06-01

upwelling is typically related to the eastern boundary upwelling system, whereas the powerful southwest Asian summer monsoon can also generate significant cold, nutrient-rich deep water in western coastal zones. Here we present a sea surface temperature record (A.D. 1876-1996) derived from coral Porites Sr/Ca for an upwelling zone in the northern South China Sea. The upwelling-induced sea surface temperature anomaly record reveals prominent multidecadal variability driven by Asian summer monsoon dynamics with an abrupt transition from warmer to colder conditions in 1930, and a return to warmer conditions after 1960. Previous studies suggest the expected increase in atmospheric CO2 for the coming decades may result in intensification in the eastern boundary upwelling system, which could enhance upwelling of CO2-rich deep water thus exacerbating the impact of acidification in these productive zones. In contrast, the weakening trend since 1961 in the upwelling time series from the northern South China Sea suggests moderate regional ocean acidification from upwelling thus a stress relief for marine life in this region.

Determination of a Critical Sea Ice Thickness Threshold for the Central Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, V.; Frauenfeld, O. W.; Nowotarski, C. J.

2017-12-01

While sea ice extent is readily measurable from satellite observations and can be used to assess the overall survivability of the Arctic sea ice pack, determining the spatial variability of sea ice thickness remains a challenge. Turbulent and conductive heat fluxes are extremely sensitive to ice thickness but are dominated by the sensible heat flux, with energy exchange expected to increase with thinner ice cover. Fluxes over open water are strongest and have the greatest influence on the atmosphere, while fluxes over thick sea ice are minimal as heat conduction from the ocean through thick ice cannot reach the atmosphere. We know that turbulent energy fluxes are strongest over open ocean, but is there a "critical thickness of ice" where fluxes are considered non-negligible? Through polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations, this study assesses how the wintertime Arctic surface boundary layer, via sensible heat flux exchange and surface air temperature, responds to sea ice thinning. The region immediately north of Franz Josef Land is characterized by a thickness gradient where sea ice transitions from the thickest multi-year ice to the very thin marginal ice seas. This provides an ideal location to simulate how the diminishing Arctic sea ice interacts with a warming atmosphere. Scenarios include both fixed sea surface temperature domains for idealized thickness variability, and fixed ice fields to detect changes in the ocean-ice-atmosphere energy exchange. Results indicate that a critical thickness threshold exists below 1 meter. The threshold is between 0.4-1 meters thinner than the critical thickness for melt season survival - the difference between first year and multi-year ice. Turbulent heat fluxes and surface air temperature increase as sea ice thickness transitions from perennial ice to seasonal ice. While models predict a sea ice free Arctic at the end of the warm season in future decades, sea ice will continue to transform seasonally during Polar winter. However, despite seasonal sea ice change, if and where its thickness remains below this critical threshold, the Arctic Ocean will continue interacting with the overlying atmosphere and contributing to Arctic amplification during the cold season.

Investigating the use of paired Uk'37 and TEX86 measurements to reconstruct past sea surface and subsurface (thermocline) temperatures (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaneda, I. S.; Urann, B.; Phu, V.

2013-12-01

Two organic geochemical temperature proxies widely applied to marine sediments are the Uk'37 Index, based on long-chain alkenones produced by haptophyte algae, and TEX86, based on isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), produced by Thaumarchaeota. At some locations, temperature reconstructions based on Uk'37 and TEX86 are in agreement within the calibration errors of each proxy, while at other sites absolute Uk'37 and TEX86 reconstructed temperatures differ but both proxies reveal similar overall trends (e.g. Caley et al., 2011). In contrast, at other locations Uk'37 and TEX86 temperature reconstructions from the same samples yield dramatically different overall trends. Differences observed between Uk'37 and TEX86 temperature reconstructions have been attributed to a variety of factors including seasonal production biases, differences in preservation and lateral transport, and differences related to the depth habitat of the source organisms. An increasing number of studies have provided evidence that TEX86 likely reflects a subsurface water temperature in certain areas of the world's oceans and have used paired Uk'37 and TEX86 measurements to simultaneously examine sea surface and subsurface (in some cases thermocline) temperature variability (e.g. Lopes dos Santos et al., 2010; Rommerskirchen et al., 2011; Li et al., 2013). In the tropical N Atlantic, a distinctive signature of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown is anticorrelated variation between surface and subsurface water temperatures (e.g. Chang et al., 2008; Zhang et al., 2007) where sea surface temperature (SST) cooling is accompanied by shallow subsurface warming (e.g. Chang et al., 2008). Lopes dos Santos et al. (2010) examined a site in the tropical NE Atlantic where they showed that in the modern Uk'37 reflects SST while TEXH86 likely reflects a thermocline temperature. The authors noted several periods during the past 200 kyr when surface cooling and subsurface warming occurred, which they attributed to AMOC slowdown. In this study, we examine sediments from ODP site 660 (NE Atlantic), located near the site studied by Lopes dos Santos et al. (2010), and use paired Uk'37-TEXH86 temperature measurements to investigate changes in sea surface and thermocline temperature variability over the past 4 Ma. We find that following Pliocene warmth, the Uk'37 record indicates an overall cooling trend since ~2.2 Ma, superimposed on glacial-interglacial temperature fluctuations. In contrast, the TEX86 record, which yields consistently cooler temperatures in comparison to Uk'37, does not exhibit an overall cooling trend during the Pleistocene nor elevated warmth during the Pliocene. In portions of the record, anticorrelated variability between Uk'37 and TEX86 temperatures is observed, likely reflecting differences in SST and thermocline temperatures related to AMOC variability. In addition, we examine the carbon (δ13C) and deuterium (δD) isotopic composition of plant leaf waxes, proxies for vegetation type (C3 vs. C4) and precipitation amount, respectively, as several studies have demonstrated close ties between AMOC variability and hydrological conditions in N Africa during the late Pleistocene and Holocene.

Validation of Atmospheric Forcing Data for PIPS 3

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-09-30

members shortly. RESULTS Surface Temperature: Figure 1 shows a comparison of surface air temperatures from the NOGAPS model , the IABP and the NCEP...with some 8,000 daily velocity observations from the IABP buoys shows that the sea-ice model performs better when driven with NOGAPS surface stresses...forcing variables, surface radiative fluxes, surface winds, and precipitation estimates to be used in the development and operation of the PIPS 3.0 model

The absence of an Atlantic imprint on the multidecadal variability of wintertime European temperature

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, Ayako; Palter, Jaime B.

2016-01-01

Northern Hemisphere climate responds sensitively to multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). It is therefore surprising that an imprint of such variability is conspicuously absent in wintertime western European temperature, despite that Europe's climate is strongly influenced by its neighbouring ocean, where multidecadal variability in basin-average SST persists in all seasons. Here we trace the cause of this missing imprint to a dynamic anomaly of the atmospheric circulation that masks its thermodynamic response to SST anomalies. Specifically, differences in the pathways Lagrangian particles take to Europe during anomalous SST winters suppress the expected fluctuations in air–sea heat exchange accumulated along those trajectories. Because decadal variability in North Atlantic-average SST may be driven partly by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the atmosphere's dynamical adjustment to this mode of variability may have important implications for the European wintertime temperature response to a projected twenty-first century AMOC decline. PMID:26975331

Reconstruction of the 3-D Dynamics From Surface Variables in a High-Resolution Simulation of North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fresnay, S.; Ponte, A. L.; Le Gentil, S.; Le Sommer, J.

2018-03-01

Several methods that reconstruct the three-dimensional ocean dynamics from sea level are presented and evaluated in the Gulf Stream region with a 1/60° realistic numerical simulation. The use of sea level is motivated by its better correlation with interior pressure or quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (PV) compared to sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity, and, by its observability via satellite altimetry. The simplest method of reconstruction relies on a linear estimation of pressure at depth from sea level. Another method consists in linearly estimating PV from sea level first and then performing a PV inversion. The last method considered, labeled SQG for surface quasi-geostrophy, relies on a PV inversion but assumes no PV anomalies. The first two methods show comparable skill at levels above -800 m. They moderately outperform SQG which emphasizes the difficulty of estimating interior PV from surface variables. Over the 250-1,000 m depth range, the three methods skillfully reconstruct pressure at wavelengths between 500 and 200 km whereas they exhibit a rapid loss of skill between 200 and 100 km wavelengths. Applicability to a real case scenario and leads for improvements are discussed.

Spatial patterns of Antarctic surface temperature trends in the context of natural variability: Lessons from the CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. L.; Polvani, L. M.

2015-12-01

The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small and weakly negative trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a strong cooling of East Antarctic in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) trends from five temperature reconstructions over two distinct time periods (1979-2005 and 1960-2005), and with those simulated by 40 coupled models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially over the two time periods and, furthermore, is completely absent from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging). We compare the CMIP5 SAT trends to those of 29 historical atmosphere-only simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice and find that these simulations are in better agreement with the observations. This suggests that natural multi-decadal variability associated with SSTs and sea ice and not external forcings is the primary driver of Antarctic SAT trends. We confirm this by showing that the observed trends lie within the distribution of multi-decadal trends from the CMIP5 pre-industrial integrations. These results, therefore, offer new evidence which points to natural climate variability as the more likely cause of the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula.

Evaluating the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on spatial distribution of chlorophyll-a concentration in the East China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Chenxu; Zhang, Yuanzhi; Cheng, Qiuming; Tsou, JinYeu; Jiang, Tingchen; Liang, X. San

2018-06-01

In this study, we analyze spatial and temporal sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophylla (Chl-a) concentration in the East China Sea (ECS) during the period 2003-2016. Level 3 (4 km) monthly SST and Chl-a data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Satellite (MODIS-Aqua) were reconstructed using the data interpolation empirical orthogonal function (DINEOF) method and used to evaluated the relationship between the two variables. The approaches employed included correlation analysis, regression analysis, and so forth. Our results show that certain strong oceanic SSTs affect Chl-a concentration, with particularly high correlation seen in the coastal area of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. The mean temperature of the high correlated region was 18.67 °C. This finding may suggest that the SST has an important impact on the spatial distribution of Chl-a concentration in the ECS.

Variability common to global sea surface temperatures and runoff in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2014-01-01

Singular value decomposition (SVD) is used to identify the variability common to global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and water-balance-modeled water-year (WY) runoff in the conterminous United States (CONUS) for the 1900–2012 period. Two modes were identified from the SVD analysis; the two modes explain 25% of the variability in WY runoff and 33% of the variability in WY SSTs. The first SVD mode reflects the variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the SST data and the hydroclimatic effects of ENSO on WY runoff in the CONUS. The second SVD mode is related to variability of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). An interesting aspect of these results is that both ENSO and AMO appear to have nearly equivalent effects on runoff variability in the CONUS. However, the relatively small amount of variance explained by the SVD analysis indicates that there is little covariation between runoff and SSTs, suggesting that SSTs may not be a viable predictor of runoff variability for most of the conterminous United States.

The role of Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea anticyclonic circulation in forcing marine air intrusions into West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuelsson, B. Daniel; Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Neff, Peter D.; Renwick, James A.; Markle, Bradley R.; Baisden, W. Troy; Keller, Elizabeth D.

2018-01-01

Persistent positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to quantify Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea (ABS) anticyclonic event occurrences associated with precipitation in West Antarctica (WA). We demonstrate that multi-day (minimum 3-day duration) anticyclones play a key role in the ABS by dynamically inducing meridional transport, which is associated with heat and moisture advection into WA. This affects surface climate variability and trends, precipitation rates and thus WA ice sheet surface mass balance. We show that the snow accumulation record from the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core reflects interannual variability of blocking and geopotential height conditions in the ABS/Ross Sea region. Furthermore, our analysis shows that larger precipitation events are related to enhanced anticyclonic circulation and meridional winds, which cause pronounced dipole patterns in air temperature anomalies and sea ice concentrations between the eastern Ross Sea and the Bellingshausen Sea/Weddell Sea, as well as between the eastern and western Ross Sea.

Ocean sea-ice modelling in the Southern Ocean around Indian Antarctic stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Anurag; Dwivedi, Suneet; Rajak, D. Ram

2017-07-01

An eddy-resolving coupled ocean sea-ice modelling is carried out in the Southern Ocean region (9°-78°E; 51°-71°S) using the MITgcm. The model domain incorporates the Indian Antarctic stations, Maitri (11.7{°}E; 70.7{°}S) and Bharati (76.1{°}E; 69.4{°}S). The realistic simulation of the surface variables, namely, sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), surface currents, sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT) is presented for the period of 1997-2012. The horizontal resolution of the model varies between 6 and 10 km. The highest vertical resolution of 5 m is taken near the surface, which gradually increases with increasing depths. The seasonal variability of the SST, SSS, SIC and currents is compared with the available observations in the region of study. It is found that the SIC of the model domain is increasing at a rate of 0.09% per month (nearly 1% per year), whereas, the SIC near Maitri and Bharati regions is increasing at a rate of 0.14 and 0.03% per month, respectively. The variability of the drift of the sea-ice is also estimated over the period of simulation. It is also found that the sea ice volume of the region increases at the rate of 0.0004 km3 per month (nearly 0.005 km3 per year). Further, it is revealed that the accumulation of sea ice around Bharati station is more as compared to Maitri station.

Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes.

PubMed

Freitas, Carla; Olsen, Esben Moland; Moland, Even; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Knutsen, Halvor

2015-05-01

Understanding responses of marine species to temperature variability is essential to predict impacts of future climate change in the oceans. Most ectotherms are expected to adjust their behavior to avoid extreme temperatures and minimize acute changes in body temperature. However, measuring such behavioral plasticity in the wild is challenging. Combining 4 years of telemetry-derived behavioral data on juvenile and adult (30-80 cm) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and in situ ocean temperature measurements, we found a significant effect of sea temperature on cod depth use and activity level in coastal Skagerrak. During summer, cod were found in deeper waters when sea surface temperature increased. Further, this effect of temperature was stronger on larger cod. Diel vertical migration, which consists in a nighttime rise to shallow feeding habitats, was stronger among smaller cod. As surface temperature increased beyond ∼15°C, their vertical migration was limited to deeper waters. In addition to larger diel vertical migrations, smaller cod were more active and travelled larger distances compared to larger specimens. Cold temperatures during winter tended, however, to reduce the magnitude of diel vertical migrations, as well as the activity level and distance moved by those smaller individuals. Our findings suggest that future and ongoing rises in sea surface temperature may increasingly deprive cod in this region from shallow feeding areas during summer, which may be detrimental for local populations of the species.

Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes

PubMed Central

Freitas, Carla; Olsen, Esben Moland; Moland, Even; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Knutsen, Halvor

2015-01-01

Understanding responses of marine species to temperature variability is essential to predict impacts of future climate change in the oceans. Most ectotherms are expected to adjust their behavior to avoid extreme temperatures and minimize acute changes in body temperature. However, measuring such behavioral plasticity in the wild is challenging. Combining 4 years of telemetry-derived behavioral data on juvenile and adult (30–80 cm) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and in situ ocean temperature measurements, we found a significant effect of sea temperature on cod depth use and activity level in coastal Skagerrak. During summer, cod were found in deeper waters when sea surface temperature increased. Further, this effect of temperature was stronger on larger cod. Diel vertical migration, which consists in a nighttime rise to shallow feeding habitats, was stronger among smaller cod. As surface temperature increased beyond ∼15°C, their vertical migration was limited to deeper waters. In addition to larger diel vertical migrations, smaller cod were more active and travelled larger distances compared to larger specimens. Cold temperatures during winter tended, however, to reduce the magnitude of diel vertical migrations, as well as the activity level and distance moved by those smaller individuals. Our findings suggest that future and ongoing rises in sea surface temperature may increasingly deprive cod in this region from shallow feeding areas during summer, which may be detrimental for local populations of the species. PMID:26045957

Sensitivity of Global Sea-Air CO2 Flux to Gas Transfer Algorithms, Climatological Wind Speeds, and Variability of Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Charles R.; Signorini, Sergio

2002-01-01

Sensitivity analyses of sea-air CO2 flux to gas transfer algorithms, climatological wind speeds, sea surface temperatures (SST) and salinity (SSS) were conducted for the global oceans and selected regional domains. Large uncertainties in the global sea-air flux estimates are identified due to different gas transfer algorithms, global climatological wind speeds, and seasonal SST and SSS data. The global sea-air flux ranges from -0.57 to -2.27 Gt/yr, depending on the combination of gas transfer algorithms and global climatological wind speeds used. Different combinations of SST and SSS global fields resulted in changes as large as 35% on the oceans global sea-air flux. An error as small as plus or minus 0.2 in SSS translates into a plus or minus 43% deviation on the mean global CO2 flux. This result emphasizes the need for highly accurate satellite SSS observations for the development of remote sensing sea-air flux algorithms.

Patterns and Variability in Global Ocean Chlorophyll: Satellite Observations and Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson

2004-01-01

Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 4% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. These trend analyses follow earlier results showing decadal declines in global ocean chlorophyll and primary production. To understand the causes of these changes and trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The model utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. This enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll. A full discussion of the changes and trends, possible causes, modeling approaches, and data assimilation will be the focus of the seminar.

Mesoscale model response to random, surface-based perturbations — A sea-breeze experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Pielke, R. A.; Miller, W. F.; Lee, T. J.

1990-09-01

The introduction into a mesoscale model of random (in space) variations in roughness length, or random (in space and time) surface perturbations of temperature and friction velocity, produces a measurable, but barely significant, response in the simulated flow dynamics of the lower atmosphere. The perturbations are an attempt to include the effects of sub-grid variability into the ensemble-mean parameterization schemes used in many numerical models. Their magnitude is set in our experiments by appeal to real-world observations of the spatial variations in roughness length and daytime surface temperature over the land on horizontal scales of one to several tens of kilometers. With sea-breeze simulations, comparisons of a number of realizations forced by roughness-length and surface-temperature perturbations with the standard simulation reveal no significant change in ensemble mean statistics, and only small changes in the sea-breeze vertical velocity. Changes in the updraft velocity for individual runs, of up to several cms-1 (compared to a mean of 14 cms-1), are directly the result of prefrontal temperature changes of 0.1 to 0.2K, produced by the random surface forcing. The correlation and magnitude of the changes are entirely consistent with a gravity-current interpretation of the sea breeze.

Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Meteorological and Oceanographic Data Sets for 1985 and 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.; Ashby, H.; Finch, C.; Smith, E.; Robles, J.

1990-01-01

The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is a component of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) World Climate Research Program (WCRP). One of the objectives of TOGA, which began in 1985, is to determine the limits of predictability of monthly mean sea surface temperature variations in tropical regions. The TOGA program created a raison d'etre for an explosive growth of the tropical ocean observing system and a substantial improvement in numerical simulations from atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models. Institutions located throughout the world are involved in the TOGA-distributed active data archive system. The diverse TOGA data sets for 1985 and 1986, including results from general circulation models, are included on a CD-ROM. Variables on the CD-ROM are barometric pressure, surface air temperature, dewpoint temperature Cartesian components of surface wind, surface sensible and latent heat fluxes,Cartesian components of surface wind stress and of an index of surface wind stress, sea level, sea surface temperature, and depth profiles of temperature and current in the upper ocean. Some data sets are global in extent, some are regional and cover portions of an ocean basin. Data on the CD-ROM can be extracted with an Apple Macintosh or an IBM PC.

The role of internal variability in prolonging the California drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buenning, N. H.; Stott, L. D.

2015-12-01

The current drought in California has been one of the driest on record. Using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), recent studies have demonstrated that the low precipitation anomalies observed during the first three winters of the current drought are mostly attributable to changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice forcing. Here we show through AGCM simulations that the fourth and latest winter of the current drought is not attributable to SST and sea ice forcing, but instead a consequence of higher internal variability. Using the Global Spectral Model (GSM) we demonstrate how the surface forcing reproduces dry conditions over California for the first three winters of the current drought, similar to what other models produced. However, when forced with the SST and sea ice conditions for the winter of 2014-2015, GSM robustly simulates high precipitation conditions over California. This significantly differs with observed precipitation anomalies, which suggests a model deficiency or large influence of internal variability within the climate system during the winter of 2014-2015. Ensemble simulations with 234 realizations reveal that the surface forcing created a broader range of precipitation possibilities over California. Thus, the surface forcing caused a greater degree of internal variations, which was driven by a reduced latitudinal temperature gradient and amplified planetary waves over the Pacific. Similar amplified waves are also seen in 21st century climate projections of upper-level geopotential heights, suggesting that 21st century precipitation over California will become more variable and increasingly difficult to predict on seasonal timescales. When an El Nino pattern is applied to the surface forcing the precipitation further increases and the variance amongst model realizations is reduced, which indicates a strong likelihood of an anomalously wet 2015-2016 winter season.

A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

PubMed

Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

2017-03-21

A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

The impact of land and sea surface variations on the Delaware sea breeze at local scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Christopher P.

The summertime climate of coastal Delaware is greatly influenced by the intensity, frequency, and location of the local sea breeze circulation. Sea breeze induced changes in temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation influence many aspects of Delaware's economy by affecting tourism, farming, air pollution density, energy usage, and the strength, and persistence of Delaware's wind resource. The sea breeze front can develop offshore or along the coastline and often creates a near surface thermal gradient in excess of 5°C. The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the dynamics of the Delaware sea breeze with a focus on the immediate coastline using observed and modeled components, both at high resolutions (~200m). The Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.5) was employed over southern Delaware with 5 domains (4 levels of nesting), with resolutions ranging from 18km to 222m, for June 2013 to investigate the sensitivity of the sea breeze to land and sea surface variations. The land surface was modified in the model to improve the resolution, which led to the addition of land surface along the coastline and accounted for recent urban development. Nine-day composites of satellite sea surface temperatures were ingested into the model and an in-house SST forcing dataset was developed to account for spatial SST variation within the inland bays. Simulations, which include the modified land surface, introduce a distinct secondary atmospheric circulation across the coastline of Rehoboth Bay when synoptic offshore wind flow is weak. Model runs using high spatial- and temporal-resolution satellite sea surface temperatures over the ocean indicate that the sea breeze landfall time is sensitive to the SST when the circulation develops offshore. During the summer of 2013 a field campaign was conducted in the coastal locations of Rehoboth Beach, DE and Cape Henlopen, DE. At each location, a series of eleven small, autonomous thermo-sensors (i-buttons) were placed along 1-km transects oriented perpendicular to the coastline where each sensor recorded temperatures at five-minute intervals. This novel approach allows for detailed characterization of the sea breeze front development over the immediate coastline not seen in previous studies. These observations provide evidence of significant variability in frontal propagation (advancing, stalling, and retrograding) within the first kilometer of the coast. Results from this observational study indicate that the land surface has the largest effect on the frontal location when the synoptic winds have a strong offshore component, which forces the sea breeze front to move slowly through the region. When this happens, the frequency of occurrence and sea breeze frontal speed decreases consistently across the first 500 m of Rehoboth Beach, after which, the differences become insignificant. At Cape Henlopen the decrease in intensity across the transect is much less evident and the reduction in frequency does not occur until after the front is 500 m from the coast. Under these conditions at Rehoboth Beach, the near surface air behind the front warms due to the land surface which, along with the large surface friction component of the urbanized land surface, causes the front to slow as it traverses the region. Observation and modeling results suggest that the influence of variations in the land and sea surface on the sea breeze circulation is complex and highly dependent on the regional synoptic wind regime. This result inspired the development of a sea breeze prediction algorithm using a generalized linear regression model which, incorporated real-time synoptic conditions to forecast the likelihood of a sea breeze front passing through a coastal station. The forecast skill increases through the morning hours after sunrise. The inland synoptic wind direction is the most influential variable utilized by the algorithm. Such a model could be enhanced to forecast local temperature with coonfidence, which could be useful in an economic or energy usage model.

Recent Trends in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson; Casey, Nancy

2004-01-01

Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 5% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. To understand the causes of these trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The mode1 utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. Ths enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll.

Variability of the Labrador Sea Surface Eddy Kinetic Energy Observed by Altimeter From 1993 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weiwei; Yan, Xiao-Hai

2018-01-01

A merged along track altimeter data set is used to study the variability of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Labrador Sea from 1993 to 2012. The EKE near the west Greenland current (WGC) has strong interannual variability without long-term trend from 1993 to 2012. The propagation direction of the Irminger Rings (IRs) originating from the WGC can be inferred from the EKE derived from altimeter, and the southward propagation of the IRs varies interannually. The central Labrador Sea EKE increases significantly from 1993 to 2012. The central Labrador Sea temperature difference between the end and the beginning of the winter convections is defined as restratification index to measure the restratification strengths. The relation between the central Labrador Sea EKE and the restratification index shows that the enhanced eddy activity originating from the west of the central Labrador Sea may cool the central Labrador Sea significantly. The interannual variability of the WGC EKE is likely to be driven by the large scale Subpolar Gyre (SPG) circulation variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO also affects the central Labrador Sea EKE through its fingerprint in the local wind stress and surface heat flux. The NAO affects the WGC EKE by changing the SPG circulation strength, which will subsequently affect the WGC EKE through unknown physical processes.

Multidecadal Variability in Surface Albedo Feedback Across CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Adam; Flanner, Mark; Perket, Justin

2018-02-01

Previous studies quantify surface albedo feedback (SAF) in climate change, but few assess its variability on decadal time scales. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble data set, we calculate time evolving SAF in multiple decades from surface albedo and temperature linear regressions. Results are meaningful when temperature change exceeds 0.5 K. Decadal-scale SAF is strongly correlated with century-scale SAF during the 21st century. Throughout the 21st century, multimodel ensemble mean SAF increases from 0.37 to 0.42 W m-2 K-1. These results suggest that models' mean decadal-scale SAFs are good estimates of their century-scale SAFs if there is at least 0.5 K temperature change. Persistent SAF into the late 21st century indicates ongoing capacity for Arctic albedo decline despite there being less sea ice. If the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble results are representative of the Earth, we cannot expect decreasing Arctic sea ice extent to suppress SAF in the 21st century.

Deriving a sea surface climatology of CO2 fugacity in support of air-sea gas flux studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddijn-Murphy, L. M.; Woolf, D. K.; Land, P. E.; Shutler, J. D.; Donlon, C.

2014-07-01

Climatologies, or long-term averages, of essential climate variables are useful for evaluating models and providing a baseline for studying anomalies. The Surface Ocean Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Atlas (SOCAT) has made millions of global underway sea surface measurements of CO2 publicly available, all in a uniform format and presented as fugacity, fCO2. fCO2 is highly sensitive to temperature and the measurements are only valid for the instantaneous sea surface temperature (SST) that is measured concurrent with the in-water CO2 measurement. To create a climatology of fCO2 data suitable for calculating air-sea CO2 fluxes it is therefore desirable to calculate fCO2 valid for climate quality SST. This paper presents a method for creating such a climatology. We recomputed SOCAT's fCO2 values for their respective measurement month and year using climate quality SST data from satellite Earth observation and then extrapolated the resulting fCO2 values to reference year 2010. The data were then spatially interpolated onto a 1° × 1° grid of the global oceans to produce 12 monthly fCO2 distributions for 2010. The partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is also provided for those who prefer to use pCO2. The CO2 concentration difference between ocean and atmosphere is the thermodynamic driving force of the air-sea CO2 flux, and hence the presented fCO2 distributions can be used in air-sea gas flux calculations together with climatologies of other climate variables.

North American west coast summer low cloudiness: Broadscale variability associated with sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Rachel E.; Gershunov, Alexander; Iacobellis, Sam F.; Cayan, Daniel R.

2014-05-01

Six decades of observations at 20 coastal airports, from Alaska to southern California, reveal coherent interannual to interdecadal variation of coastal low cloudiness (CLC) from summer to summer over this broad region. The leading mode of CLC variability represents coherent variation, accounting for nearly 40% of the total CLC variance spanning 1950-2012. This leading mode and the majority of individual airports exhibit decreased low cloudiness from the earlier to the later part of the record. Exploring climatic controls on CLC, we identify North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, largely in the form of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as well correlated with, and evidently helping to organize, the coherent patterns of summer coastal cloud variability. Links from the PDO to summer CLC appear a few months in advance of the summer. These associations hold up consistently in interannual and interdecadal frequencies.

The forcing of southwestern Asia teleconnections by low-frequency sea surface temperature variability during boreal winter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Mathew Barlow,

2015-01-01

Southwestern Asia, defined here as the domain bounded by 20°–40°N and 40°–70°E, which includes the nations of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, is a water-stressed and semiarid region that receives roughly 75% of its annual rainfall during November–April. The November–April climate of southwestern Asia is strongly influenced by tropical Indo-Pacific variability on intraseasonal and interannual time scales, much of which can be attributed to sea surface temperature (SST) variations. The influences of lower-frequency SST variability on southwestern Asia climate during November–April Pacific decadal SST (PDSST) variability and the long-term trend in SST (LTSST) is examined. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Drought Working Group forced global atmospheric climate models with PDSST and LTSST patterns, identified using empirical orthogonal functions, to show the steady atmospheric response to these modes of decadal to multidecadal SST variability. During November–April, LTSST forces an anticyclone over southwestern Asia, which results in reduced precipitation and increases in surface temperature. The precipitation and tropospheric circulation influences of LTSST are corroborated by independent observed precipitation and circulation datasets during 1901–2004. The decadal variations of southwestern Asia precipitation may be forced by PDSST variability, with two of the three models indicating that the cold phase of PDSST forces an anticyclone and precipitation reductions. However, there are intermodel circulation variations to PDSST that influence subregional precipitation patterns over the Middle East, southwestern Asia, and subtropical Asia. Changes in wintertime temperature and precipitation over southwestern Asia forced by LTSST and PDSST imply important changes to the land surface hydrology during the spring and summer.

Validation of newly designed regional earth system model (RegESM) for Mediterranean Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turuncoglu, Ufuk Utku; Sannino, Gianmaria

2017-05-01

We present a validation analysis of a regional earth system model system (RegESM) for the Mediterranean Basin. The used configuration of the modeling system includes two active components: a regional climate model (RegCM4) and an ocean modeling system (ROMS). To assess the performance of the coupled modeling system in representing the climate of the basin, the results of the coupled simulation (C50E) are compared to the results obtained by a standalone atmospheric simulation (R50E) as well as several observation datasets. Although there is persistent cold bias in fall and winter, which is also seen in previous studies, the model reproduces the inter-annual variability and the seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) in a general good agreement with the available observations. The analysis of the near-surface wind distribution and the main circulation of the sea indicates that the coupled model can reproduce the main characteristics of the Mediterranean Sea surface and intermediate layer circulation as well as the seasonal variability of wind speed and direction when it is compared with the available observational datasets. The results also reveal that the simulated near-surface wind speed and direction have poor performance in the Gulf of Lion and surrounding regions that also affects the large positive SST bias in the region due to the insufficient horizontal resolution of the atmospheric component of the coupled modeling system. The simulated seasonal climatologies of the surface heat flux components are also consistent with the CORE.2 and NOCS datasets along with the overestimation in net long-wave radiation and latent heat flux (or evaporation, E), although a large observational uncertainty is found in these variables. Also, the coupled model tends to improve the latent heat flux by providing a better representation of the air-sea interaction as well as total heat flux budget over the sea. Both models are also able to reproduce the temporal evolution of the inter-annual anomaly of surface air temperature and precipitation (P) over defined sub-regions. The Mediterranean water budget (E, P and E-P) estimates also show that the coupled model has high skill in the representation of water budget of the Mediterranean Sea. To conclude, the coupled model reproduces climatological land surface fields and the sea surface variables in the range of observation uncertainty and allow studying air-sea interaction and main regional climate characteristics of the basin.

Land- and sea-surface impacts on local coastal breezes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veron, D. E.; Hughes, C.; Gilchrist, J.; Lodise, J.; Goldman, W.

2014-12-01

The state of Delaware has seen significant increases in population along the coastline in the past three decades. With this increase in population have come changes to the land surface, as forest and farmland has been converted to residential and commercial purposes, causing changes in the surface roughness, temperature, and land-atmosphere fluxes. There is also a semi-permanent upwelling center in the spring and summer outside the Delaware Bay mouth that significantly changes the structure of the sea surface temperature both inside and outside the Bay. Through a series of high resolution modeling and observational studies, we have determined that in cases of strong synoptic forcing, the impact of the land-surface on the boundary layer properties can be advected offshore, creating a false coastline and modifying the location and timing of the sea breeze circulation. In cases of weak synoptic forcing, the influence of the upwelling and the tidal circulation of the Delaware Bay waters can greatly change the location, strength, and penetration of the sea breeze. Understanding the importance of local variability in the surface-atmosphere interactions on the sea breeze can lead to improved prediction of sea breeze onset, penetration, and duration which is important for monitoring air quality and developing offshore wind power production.

Ecosystem responses to recent oceanographic variability in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueter, Franz J.; Broms, Cecilie; Drinkwater, Kenneth F.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Hunt, George L., Jr.; Melle, Webjørn; Taylor, Maureen

2009-04-01

As part of the international MENU collaboration, we compared and contrasted ecosystem responses to climate-forced oceanographic variability across several high latitude regions of the North Pacific (Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA)) and North Atlantic Oceans (Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank (GOM/GB) and the Norwegian/Barents Seas (NOR/BAR)). Differences in the nitrate content of deep source waters and incoming solar radiation largely explain differences in average primary productivity among these ecosystems. We compared trends in productivity and abundance at various trophic levels and their relationships with sea-surface temperature. Annual net primary production generally increases with annual mean sea-surface temperature between systems and within the EBS, BAR, and GOM/GB. Zooplankton biomass appears to be controlled by both top-down (predation by fish) and bottom-up forcing (advection, SST) in the BAR and NOR regions. In contrast, zooplankton in the GOM/GB region showed no evidence of top-down forcing but appeared to control production of major fish populations through bottom-up processes that are independent of temperature variability. Recruitment of several fish stocks is significantly and positively correlated with temperature in the EBS and BAR, but cod and pollock recruitment in the EBS has been negatively correlated with temperature since the 1977 shift to generally warmer conditions. In each of the ecosystems, fish species showed a general poleward movement in response to warming. In addition, the distribution of groundfish in the EBS has shown a more complex, non-linear response to warming resulting from internal community dynamics. Responses to recent warming differ across systems and appear to be more direct and more pronounced in the higher latitude systems where food webs and trophic interactions are simpler and where both zooplankton and fish species are often limited by cold temperatures.

Rectification of Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillations on Seasonal to Interannual Sea Surface Temperature in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duncan, B.; Han, W.

2010-12-01

An ocean general circulation model (the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM) is used to examine the rectification of atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) on lower-frequency seasonal to interannual sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean (IO). Existing studies have shown that ISOs rectify on low-frequency equatorial surface currents, suggesting that they may also have important impacts on low-frequency SST variability. To evaluate these impacts, a hierarchy of experiments is run with HYCOM that isolates the ocean response to atmospheric forcing by 10-30 day (submonthly), 30-90 day (dominated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation), and 10-90 day (all ISO) events. Other experiments isolate the ocean response to a range of forcing processes including shortwave radiation, precipitation, and winds. Results indicate that ISOs have a non-negligible effect on the seasonal and annual cycles of SST in the Arabian Sea. The maximum seasonal SST variability in the Arabian Sea is 1.6°C, while the ISO-forced seasonal SST variability has a maximum of 0.4°C. Because SSTs in the Arabian Sea are already warm (>28°C), a change of 0.4°C can affect convection there. ISOs also have non-negligible effects on the seasonal variability of SST in the south- and west- equatorial IO. The ISO contribution to the seasonal cycle of mixed layer thickness (hmix) in the eastern equatorial IO has a maximum of 9m, while the total hmix seasonal cycle has a maximum of 14m. ISOs affect the hmix seasonal cycle by up to 10m in the Arabian Sea, where the total seasonal cycle has a maximum of 75m. Further work will seek to explain the causes of this observed rectification of ISOs on seasonal SST and mixed layer variability, and to extend our results to include interannual timescales.

Visible and thermal imaging of sea ice and open water from Coast Guard Arctic Domain Awareness flights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chickadel, C. C.; Lindsay, R. W.; Clark, D.

2014-12-01

An uncooled thermal camera (microbolometer) and RGB camera were mounted in the tail section of a US Coast Guard HC-130 to observe sea ice, open water, and cloud tops through the open rear cargo doors during routine Arctic Domain Awareness (ADA) flights. Recent flights were conducted over the Beaufort Sea in June, July, and August of 2014, with flights planned for September and October. Thermal and visible images were collected at low altitude (100m) during times when the cargo doors were open and recorded high resolution information on ice floes, melt ponds, and surface temperature variability associated with the marginal ice zone (MIZ). These observations of sea ice conditions and surface water temperatures will be used to characterize floe size development and the temperature and albedo of ice ponds and leads. This information will allow for a detailed characterization of sea ice that can be used in process studies and for model evaluation, calibration of satellite remote sensing products, and initialization of sea ice prediction schemes.

North Atlantic climate model bias influence on multiyear predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y.; Park, T.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

2018-01-01

The influences of North Atlantic biases on multiyear predictability of unforced surface air temperature (SAT) variability are examined in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). By employing a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model, which strongly alleviates both North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface temperature (SST) biases, the freshwater flux-corrected integration depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector in comparison to the uncorrected one. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected integration is due to a stronger and more variable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic SST. Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SAT and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.

Sea surface temperature anomalies, planetary waves, and air-sea feedback in the middle latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frankignoul, C.

1985-01-01

Current analytical models for large-scale air-sea interactions in the middle latitudes are reviewed in terms of known sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The scales and strength of different atmospheric forcing mechanisms are discussed, along with the damping and feedback processes controlling the evolution of the SST. Difficulties with effective SST modeling are described in terms of the techniques and results of case studies, numerical simulations of mixed-layer variability and statistical modeling. The relationship between SST and diabatic heating anomalies is considered and a linear model is developed for the response of the stationary atmosphere to the air-sea feedback. The results obtained with linear wave models are compared with the linear model results. Finally, sample data are presented from experiments with general circulation models into which specific SST anomaly data for the middle latitudes were introduced.

Dominant covarying climate signals in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Sea Ice influence during last three decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrone, Dario; Fusco, Giannetta; Simmonds, Ian; Aulicino, Giuseppe; Budillon, Giorgio

2017-04-01

A composite dataset (comprising geopotential height, sea surface temperature, zonal and meridional surface winds, precipitation, cloud cover, surface air temperature, latent plus sensible heat fluxes , and sea ice concentration) has been investigated with the aim of revealing the dominant timescales of variability from 1982 to 2013. Three covarying climate signals associated with variations in the sea ice distribution around Antarctica have been detected through the application of the Multiple-Taper Method with Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD). Features of the established patterns of variation over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics have been identified in each of these three climate signals in the form of coupled or individual oscillations. The climate patterns considered here are the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Pacific-South America (PSA) teleconnection, the Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) and Zonal Wavenumber-3 (ZW3) mode. It is shown that most of the sea ice temporal variance is concentrated at the quasi-triennial scale resulting from the constructive superposition of the PSA and ZW3 patterns. In addition the combination of the SAM and SAO patterns is found to promote the interannual sea ice variations underlying a general change in the Southern Ocean atmospheric and oceanic circulations. These two modes of variability are also found consistent with the occurrence of the SAM+/PSA- or SAM-/PSA+ combinations, which could have favored the cooling of the sub-Antarctic and important changes in the Antarctic sea ice distribution since 2000.

Modelling dengue fever risk in the State of Yucatan, Mexico using regional-scale satellite-derived sea surface temperature.

PubMed

Laureano-Rosario, Abdiel E; Garcia-Rejon, Julian E; Gomez-Carro, Salvador; Farfan-Ale, Jose A; Muller-Karger, Frank E

2017-08-01

Accurately predicting vector-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, is essential for communities worldwide. Changes in environmental parameters such as precipitation, air temperature, and humidity are known to influence dengue fever dynamics. Furthermore, previous studies have shown how oceanographic variables, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related sea surface temperature from the Pacific Ocean, influences dengue fever in the Americas. However, literature is lacking on the use of regional-scale satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) to assess its relationship with dengue fever in coastal areas. Data on confirmed dengue cases, demographics, precipitation, and air temperature were collected. Incidence of weekly dengue cases was examined. Stepwise multiple regression analyses (AIC model selection) were used to assess which environmental variables best explained increased dengue incidence rates. SST, minimum air temperature, precipitation, and humidity substantially explained 42% of the observed variation (r 2 =0.42). Infectious diseases are characterized by the influence of past cases on current cases and results show that previous dengue cases alone explained 89% of the variation. Ordinary least-squares analyses showed a positive trend of 0.20±0.03°C in SST from 2006 to 2015. An important element of this study is to help develop strategic recommendations for public health officials in Mexico by providing a simple early warning capability for dengue incidence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice.

PubMed

Li, Xichen; Holland, David M; Gerber, Edwin P; Yoo, Changhyun

2014-01-23

In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change.

Interannual variability of March snow mass over Northern Eurasia and its relation to the concurrent and preceding surface air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Kunhui

2018-06-01

The interannual variability of March snow water equivalent (SWE) in Northern Eurasia and its influencing factors are studied. The surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation are the dominant factors for the snow accumulation in northern Europe and the remaining region, respectively. The strongest contribution of SAT to snow accumulation is mainly found in those months with moderate mean SAT. The strongest contribution of precipitation is not collocated with the climatological maxima in precipitation. The leading mode of March SWE variability is obtained and characterized by a spatial dipole. Anomalies in atmospheric water vapor divergence, storm activity and the associated atmospheric circulation can explain many of the associated precipitation and SAT features. Anomalies in autumn Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents Sea and Kara Sea (B/K Sea) and a dipole pattern of November snow cover (SC) in Eurasia are also observed. The atmospheric circulation anomalies that resemble a negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) are strongly projected onto the wintertime atmospheric circulation. Both observations and model experiment support that the autumn B/K Sea SIC has some impacts on the autumn and AO/NAO-like wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns. The dipole pattern of November Eurasian SC seems to be strongly forced by the autumn B/K Sea SIC and its feedback to the atmospheric circulation is important. Therefore, the impacts of autumn B/K Sea SIC on the autumn/wintertime atmospheric circulation and thus the March SWE variability may be modulated by both constructive and destructive interference of autumn Eurasian SC.

Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

PubMed

Wang, Wuke; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib

2016-07-12

Tropopause temperatures (TPTs) control the amount of stratospheric water vapour, which influences chemistry, radiation and circulation in the stratosphere, and is also an important driver of surface climate. Decadal variability and long-term trends in tropical TPTs as well as stratospheric water vapour are largely unknown. Here, we present for the first time evidence, from reanalysis and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, of a link between decadal variability in tropical TPTs and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The negative phase of the PDO is associated with anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical east and central Pacific, which enhance the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The latter drives a stronger Walker Circulation and a weaker Hadley Circulation, which leads to less convection and subsequently a warmer tropopause over the central equatorial Pacific. Over the North Pacific, positive sea level pressure anomalies occur, which damp vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. This in turn slows the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and hence warms the tropical tropopause, enabling more water vapour to enter the stratosphere. The reverse chain of events holds for the positive phase of the PDO. Such ocean-troposphere-stratosphere interactions may provide an important feedback on the Earth's global surface temperature.

Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

PubMed Central

Wang, Wuke; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib

2016-01-01

Tropopause temperatures (TPTs) control the amount of stratospheric water vapour, which influences chemistry, radiation and circulation in the stratosphere, and is also an important driver of surface climate. Decadal variability and long-term trends in tropical TPTs as well as stratospheric water vapour are largely unknown. Here, we present for the first time evidence, from reanalysis and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, of a link between decadal variability in tropical TPTs and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The negative phase of the PDO is associated with anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical east and central Pacific, which enhance the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The latter drives a stronger Walker Circulation and a weaker Hadley Circulation, which leads to less convection and subsequently a warmer tropopause over the central equatorial Pacific. Over the North Pacific, positive sea level pressure anomalies occur, which damp vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. This in turn slows the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and hence warms the tropical tropopause, enabling more water vapour to enter the stratosphere. The reverse chain of events holds for the positive phase of the PDO. Such ocean-troposphere-stratosphere interactions may provide an important feedback on the Earth’s global surface temperature. PMID:27404090

Large and local-scale influences on physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Western Europe during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tréguer, Paul; Goberville, Eric; Barrier, Nicolas; L'Helguen, Stéphane; Morin, Pascal; Bozec, Yann; Rimmelin-Maury, Peggy; Czamanski, Marie; Grossteffan, Emilie; Cariou, Thierry; Répécaud, Michel; Quéméner, Loic

2014-11-01

There is now a strong scientific consensus that coastal marine systems of Western Europe are highly sensitive to the combined effects of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. However, it still remains challenging to assess the spatial and temporal scales at which climate influence operates. While large-scale hydro-climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the weather regimes such as the Atlantic Ridge (AR), are known to be relevant predictors of physical processes, changes in coastal waters can also be related to local hydro-meteorological and geochemical forcing. Here, we study the temporal variability of physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters located at about 48°N over the period 1998-2013 using (1) sea surface temperature, (2) sea surface salinity and (3) nutrient concentration observations for two coastal sites located at the outlet of the Bay of Brest and off Roscoff, (4) river discharges of the major tributaries close to these two sites and (5) regional and local precipitation data over the region of interest. Focusing on the winter months, we characterize the physical and chemical variability of these coastal waters and document changes in both precipitation and river runoffs. Our study reveals that variability in coastal waters is connected to the large-scale North Atlantic atmospheric circulation but is also partly explained by local river influences. Indeed, while the NAO is strongly related to changes in sea surface temperature at the Brest and Roscoff sites, the EAP and the AR have a major influence on precipitations, which in turn modulate river discharges that impact sea surface salinity at the scale of the two coastal stations.

Ocean circulation and biogeochemistry moderate interannual and decadal surface water pH changes in the Sargasso Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathalie F. Goodkin,; Bo-Shian Wang,; Chen-Feng You,; Konrad Hughen,; Prouty, Nancy G.; Bates, Nicholas; Scott Doney,

2015-01-01

The oceans absorb anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere, lowering surface ocean pH, a concern for calcifying marine organisms. The impact of ocean acidification is challenging to predict as each species appears to respond differently and because our knowledge of natural changes to ocean pH is limited in both time and space. Here we reconstruct 222 years of biennial seawater pH variability in the Sargasso Sea from a brain coral, Diploria labyrinthiformis. Using hydrographic data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study and the coral-derived pH record, we are able to differentiate pH changes due to surface temperature versus those from ocean circulation and biogeochemical changes. We find that ocean pH does not simply reflect atmospheric CO2 trends but rather that circulation/biogeochemical changes account for >90% of pH variability in the Sargasso Sea and more variability in the last century than would be predicted from anthropogenic uptake of CO2 alone.

Recruitment success of different fish stocks in the North Sea in relation to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dippner, Joachim W.

1997-09-01

Long-term data of year class strengths of different commercially harvested fish stocks based on a virtual population analysis (VPA) are available from ICES. The anomalies of these long-term data sets of year class strength are analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) and are related to climate variability: the anomalies of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern North Sea and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) between the leading eigenmodes is performed. The results suggest that the variability in the fish recruitment of western mackerel and three gadoids, namely North Sea cod, North Sea saithe, and North Sea whiting is highly correlated to the variability of the North Sea SST which is directly influenced by the NAO. For North Sea haddock and herring no meaningful correlation exists to North Sea SST and NAO. The results allow the conclusion that is seems possible to predict long-term changes in the fish recruitment from climate change scenarios for North Sea cod, North Sea saithe and western mackerel. Furthermore, the results indicate the possibility of recruitment failure for North Sea cod, North Sea whiting, and western mackerel in the case of global warming.

Variability of hydrological extreme events in East Asia and their dynamical control: a comparison between observations and two high-resolution global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freychet, N.; Duchez, A.; Wu, C.-H.; Chen, C.-A.; Hsu, H.-H.; Hirschi, J.; Forryan, A.; Sinha, B.; New, A. L.; Graham, T.; Andrews, M. B.; Tu, C.-Y.; Lin, S.-J.

2017-02-01

This work investigates the variability of extreme weather events (drought spells, DS15, and daily heavy rainfall, PR99) over East Asia. It particularly focuses on the large scale atmospheric circulation associated with high levels of the occurrence of these extreme events. Two observational datasets (APHRODITE and PERSIANN) are compared with two high-resolution global climate models (HiRAM and HadGEM3-GC2) and an ensemble of other lower resolution climate models from CMIP5. We first evaluate the performance of the high resolution models. They both exhibit good skill in reproducing extreme events, especially when compared with CMIP5 results. Significant differences exist between the two observational datasets, highlighting the difficulty of having a clear estimate of extreme events. The link between the variability of the extremes and the large scale circulation is investigated, on monthly and interannual timescales, using composite and correlation analyses. Both extreme indices DS15 and PR99 are significantly linked to the low level wind intensity over East Asia, i.e. the monsoon circulation. It is also found that DS15 events are strongly linked to the surface temperature over the Siberian region and to the land-sea pressure contrast, while PR99 events are linked to the sea surface temperature anomalies over the West North Pacific. These results illustrate the importance of the monsoon circulation on extremes over East Asia. The dependencies on of the surface temperature over the continent and the sea surface temperature raise the question as to what extent they could affect the occurrence of extremes over tropical regions in future projections.

A statistical examination of Nimbus 7 SMMR data and remote sensing of sea surface temperature, liquid water content in the atmosphere and surfaces wind speed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Wang, I.; Chang, A. T. C.; Gloersen, P.

1982-01-01

Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) brightness temperature measurements over the global oceans have been examined with the help of statistical and empirical techniques. Such analyses show that zonal averages of brightness temperature measured by SMMR, over the oceans, on a large scale are primarily influenced by the water vapor in the atmosphere. Liquid water in the clouds and rain, which has a much smaller spatial and temporal scale, contributes substantially to the variability of the SMMR measurements within the latitudinal zones. The surface wind not only increases the surface emissivity but through its interactions with the atmosphere produces correlations, in the SMMR brightness temperature data, that have significant meteorological implications. It is found that a simple meteorological model can explain the general characteristics of the SMMR data. With the help of this model methods to infer over the global oceans, the surface temperature, liquid water content in the atmosphere, and surface wind speed are developed. Monthly mean estimates of the sea surface temperature and surface winds are compared with the ship measurements. Estimates of liquid water content in the atmosphere are consistent with earlier satellite measurements.

Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, A.; Bates, S. C.

2017-12-01

Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic.

Strong Dependence of U.S. Summertime Air Quality on the Decadal Variability of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Li, Mingwei

2017-12-01

We find that summertime air quality in the eastern U.S. displays strong dependence on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, resulting from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Using observations, reanalysis data sets, and climate model simulations, we further identify a multidecadal variability in surface air quality driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In one-half cycle ( 35 years) of the AMO from cold to warm phase, summertime maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations increase by 1-4 ppbv and PM2.5 concentrations increase by 0.3-1.0 μg m-3 over much of the east. These air quality changes are related to warmer, drier, and more stagnant weather in the AMO warm phase, together with anomalous circulation patterns at the surface and aloft. If the AMO shifts to the cold phase in future years, it could partly offset the climate penalty on U.S. air quality brought by global warming, an effect which should be considered in long-term air quality planning.

The North Atlantic Ocean Is in a State of Reduced Overturning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smeed, D. A.; Josey, S. A.; Beaulieu, C.; Johns, W. E.; Moat, B. I.; Frajka-Williams, E.; Rayner, D.; Meinen, C. S.; Baringer, M. O.; Bryden, H. L.; McCarthy, G. D.

2018-02-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for a variable and climatically important northward transport of heat. Using data from an array of instruments that span the Atlantic at 26°N, we show that the AMOC has been in a state of reduced overturning since 2008 as compared to 2004-2008. This change of AMOC state is concurrent with other changes in the North Atlantic such as a northward shift and broadening of the Gulf Stream and altered patterns of heat content and sea surface temperature. These changes resemble the response to a declining AMOC predicted by coupled climate models. Concurrent changes in air-sea fluxes close to the western boundary reveal that the changes in ocean heat transport and sea surface temperature have altered the pattern of ocean-atmosphere heat exchange over the North Atlantic. These results provide strong observational evidence that the AMOC is a major factor in decadal-scale variability of North Atlantic climate.

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-01-01

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging Over the Northeastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-11-01

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter "rainy season." Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient—including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

The classification of the Arctic Sea ice types and the determination of surface temperature using advanced very high resolution radiometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massom, Robert; Comiso, Josefino C.

1994-01-01

The accurate quantification of new ice and open water areas and surface temperatures within the sea ice packs is a key to the realistic parameterization of heat, moisture, and turbulence fluxes between ocean and atmosphere in the polar regions. Multispectral NOAA advanced very high resolution radiometer/2 (AVHRR/2) satellite images are analyzed to evaluate how effectively the data can be used to characterize sea ice in the Bering and Greenland seas, both in terms of surface type and physical temperature. The basis of the classification algorithm, which is developed using a late wintertime Bering Sea ice cover data, is that frequency distributions of 10.8- micrometers radiances provide four distinct peaks, represeting open water, new ice, young ice, and thick ice with a snow cover. The results are found to be spatially and temporally consistent. Possible sources of ambiguity, especially associated with wider temporal and spatial application of the technique, are discussed. An ice surface temperature algorithm is developed for the same study area by regressing thermal infrared data from 10.8- and 12.0- micrometers channels against station air temperatures, which are assumed to approximate the skin temperatures of adjacent snow and ice. The standard deviations of the results when compared with in situ data are about 0.5 K over leads and polynyas to about 0.5-1.5 K over thick ice. This study is based upon a set of in situ data limited in scope and coverage. Cloud masks are applied using a thresholding technique that utilizes 3.74- and 10.8- micrometers channel data. The temperature maps produced show coherence with surface features like new ice and leads, and consistency with corresponding surface type maps. Further studies are needed to better understand the effects of both the spatial and temporal variability in emissivity, aerosol and precipitable atmospheric ice particle distribution, and atmospheric temperature inversions.

Seasonal variability of the Red Sea, from satellite gravity, radar altimetry, and in situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahr, John; Smeed, David A.; Leuliette, Eric; Swenson, Sean

2014-08-01

Seasonal variations of sea surface height (SSH) and mass within the Red Sea are caused mostly by exchange of heat with the atmosphere and by flow through the strait opening into the Gulf of Aden to the south. That flow involves a net mass transfer into the Red Sea during fall and out during spring, though in summer there is an influx of cool water at intermediate depths. Thus, summer water in the south is warmer near the surface due to higher air temperatures, but cooler at intermediate depths. Summer water in the north experiences warming by air-sea exchange only. The temperature affects water density, which impacts SSH but has no effect on mass. We study this seasonal cycle by combining GRACE mass estimates, altimeter SSH measurements, and steric contributions derived from the World Ocean Atlas temperature climatology. Among our conclusions are: mass contributions are much larger than steric contributions; the mass is largest in winter, consistent with winds pushing water into the Red Sea in fall and out during spring; the steric signal is largest in summer, consistent with surface warming; and the cool, intermediate-depth water flowing into the Red Sea in spring has little impact on the steric signal, because contributions from the lowered temperature are offset by effects of decreased salinity. The results suggest that the combined use of altimeter and GRACE measurements can provide a useful alternative to in situ data for monitoring the steric signal.

Surface Heat Budgets and Sea Surface Temperature in the Pacific Warm Pool During TOGA COARE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Zhao, Wenzhong; Chou, Ming-Dah

1998-01-01

The daily mean heat and momentum fluxes at the surface derived from the SSM/I and Japan's GMS radiance measurements are used to study the temporal and spatial variability of the surface energy budgets and their relationship to the sea surface temperature during the COARE intensive observing period (IOP). For the three time legs observed during the IOP, the retrieved surface fluxes compare reasonably well with those from the IMET buoy, RV Moana Wave, and RV Wecoma. The characteristics of surface heat and momentum fluxes are very different between the southern and northern warm pool. In the southern warm pool, the net surface heat flux is dominated by solar radiation which is, in turn, modulated by the two Madden-Julian oscillations. The surface winds are generally weak, leading to a shallow ocean mixed layer. The solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is significant, and the change in the sea surface temperature during the IOP does not follow the net surface heat flux. In the northern warm pool, the northeasterly trade wind is strong and undergoes strong seasonal variation. The variation of the net surface heat flux is dominated by evaporation. The two westerly wind bursts associated with the Madden-Julian oscillations seem to have little effect on the net surface heat flux. The ocean mixed layer is deep, and the solar radiation penetrating through the bottom of the mixed layer is small. As opposed to the southern warm pool, the trend of the sea surface temperature in the northern warm pool during the IOP is in agreement with the variation of the net heat flux at the surface.

Reconstructing Hydrologic Variability in Southwestern North America Using Speleothem Proxies and Precipitation Isotopes from California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCabe-Glynn, Staryl

Precipitation in southwestern North America has exhibited significant natural variability over the past few thousand years. This variability has been attributed to sea surface temperature regimes in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and to the attendant shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. In particular, decadal variability in the North Pacific has influenced precipitation in this region during the twentieth century, but links to earlier droughts and pluvials are unclear. Here I assess these links using delta18 O measurements from a speleothem from southern California that spans AD 854-- 2007. I show that variations in the oxygen isotopes of the speleothem correlate to sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Extension region of the North Pacific, which affect the atmospheric trajectory and isotopic composition of moisture reaching the study site. Interpreting our speleothem data as a record of sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Extension, I find a strong 22-year periodicity, suggesting a persistent solar influence on North Pacific decadal variability. A comparison with tree-ring records of precipitation during the past millennium shows that some droughts occurred during periods of warmth in the Kuroshio Extension, similar to the instrumental record. However, other droughts did not and instead were likely influenced by other factors. The carbon isotope record indicates drier conditions are associated with higher delta13C values and may be a suitable proxy for reconstructing past drought variability. More research is needed to determine the controls on trace element concentrations. Finally, I find a significant increase in sea surface temperature variability over the past 150 years, which may reflect an influence of greenhouse gas concentrations on variability in the North Pacific. While drought is a common feature of climate in this region, most climate models also project extreme precipitation events to increase in frequency and severity because the climate changes largely due to increased water vapor content in a warmer atmosphere. I also utilize precipitation data and isotopic analysis from precipitation samples collected weekly from near the cave site at Giant Forest, Sequoia National Park, California, from 2001 to 2011, to analyze climate mode patterns during extreme precipitation events and to construct an isotopic data base of precipitation samples. Composite maps indicate extreme precipitation weeks consist of a weaker Aleutian Low, coupled with a deep low pressure cell located northwest of California and enhanced subtropical moisture. I find extreme precipitation weeks occur more often during the La Nina phase and less during the positive Eastern Pacific (EP) phase or during the Central Pacific (CP) neutral phase at our site. Analyses of climate mode patterns and precipitation amounts indicate that when the negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), negative and neutral Pacific North American pattern (PNA), and positive Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (La Nina) are in sync, the maximum amount of precipitation anomalies are distributed along the Western US. Additionally, the central or eastern Pacific location of El Nino Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature anomalies can further enhance predictive capabilities of the landfall location of extreme precipitation.

Determination of ocean surface heat fluxes by a variational method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roquet, H.; Planton, S.; Gaspar, P.

1993-06-01

A new technique of determination of the "nonsolar" heat flux (sum of the latent, sensible, and net infrared fluxes) at the ocean surface is proposed. It applies when oceanic advection remains weak and thus relies on a one-dimensional modeling approach. It is based on a variational data assimilation scheme using the adjoint equation formalism. This allows to take advantage of all observed data with their error estimates. Results from experiments performed with station Papa (Gulf of Alaska) and Long-Term Upper Ocean Study (LOTUS, Sargasso Sea) data sets are discussed. The temperature profiles assimilation allows the one-dimensional model to reproduce correctly the temperature evolution at the surface and under the oceanic mixed layer at the two sites. The retrieved fluxes are compared to the fluxes calculated through classical empirical formulae. The diurnal dependence of the fluxes at the LOTUS site is particularly investigated. The results are also compared with those obtained using a simpler technique based on an iterative shooting method and allowing the assimilation of the only sea surface temperature. This second comparison reveals that the variability of the retrieved fluxes is damped when temperature in the inner ocean are assimilated. This is the case for the diurnal cycle at the LOTUS mooring. When the available current data at this site are assimilated, the diurnal variability of the retrieved fluxes is further decreased. This points out a model discrepancy in the representation of mixing processes associated to internal wave activity. The remaining part of the diurnal cycle is significant and could be due to a direct effect of air-sea temperature difference.

Seasonal variability of thermal fronts in the northern South China Sea from satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dongxiao; Liu, Yun; Qi, Yiquan; Shi, Ping

The 8-year (1991-1998) Pathfinder sea surface temperature data have been applied here to produce the objectively derived seasonality of the oceanic thermal fronts in the northern South China Sea from 17°N to 25°N. Several fronts have been clearly distinguished, namely, Fujian and Guangdong Coastal Water, Pear River Estuary Coastal, Taiwan Bank, Kuroshio Intrusion, Hainan Island East Coast and Tonkin Gulf Coastal fronts. The frontal patterns in winter, spring and summer are quite similar, whereas individual fronts display different modes of seasonal variability due to different mechanisms favoring those fronts.

The OceanFlux Greenhouse Gases methodology for deriving a sea surface climatology of CO2 fugacity in support of air-sea gas flux studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddijn-Murphy, L. M.; Woolf, D. K.; Land, P. E.; Shutler, J. D.; Donlon, C.

2015-07-01

Climatologies, or long-term averages, of essential climate variables are useful for evaluating models and providing a baseline for studying anomalies. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) has made millions of global underway sea surface measurements of CO2 publicly available, all in a uniform format and presented as fugacity, fCO2. As fCO2 is highly sensitive to temperature, the measurements are only valid for the instantaneous sea surface temperature (SST) that is measured concurrently with the in-water CO2 measurement. To create a climatology of fCO2 data suitable for calculating air-sea CO2 fluxes, it is therefore desirable to calculate fCO2 valid for a more consistent and averaged SST. This paper presents the OceanFlux Greenhouse Gases methodology for creating such a climatology. We recomputed SOCAT's fCO2 values for their respective measurement month and year using monthly composite SST data on a 1° × 1° grid from satellite Earth observation and then extrapolated the resulting fCO2 values to reference year 2010. The data were then spatially interpolated onto a 1° × 1° grid of the global oceans to produce 12 monthly fCO2 distributions for 2010, including the prediction errors of fCO2 produced by the spatial interpolation technique. The partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is also provided for those who prefer to use pCO2. The CO2 concentration difference between ocean and atmosphere is the thermodynamic driving force of the air-sea CO2 flux, and hence the presented fCO2 distributions can be used in air-sea gas flux calculations together with climatologies of other climate variables.

Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. L.; Del Genio, A. D.

1994-01-01

Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

Reconstruction from EOF analysis of SMOS salinity data in Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parard, Gaelle; Alvera-Azcárate, Aida; Barth, Alexander; Olmedo, Estrella; Turiel, Antonio; Becker, Jean-Marie

2017-04-01

Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) data from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission is reconstructed in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea using DINEOF (Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions). We used the satellite data Level 2 from SMOS Barcelona Expert Centre between 2011 and 2015. DINEOF is a technique that reconstructs missing data and removes noise by retaining only an optimal set of EOFs. DINEOF analysis is used to detect and remove outliers from the SMOS SSS daily field. The gain obtained with DINEOF method and L2 SMOS data give a higher spatial and temporal resolution between 2011 and 2015, allow to study the SSS variability from daily to seasonal resolution. In order to improve the SMOS salinity data reconstruction we combine with other parameters measured from satellite such chlorophyll, sea surface temperature, precipitation and CDOM variability. After a validation of the SMOS satellite data reconstruction with in situ data (CTD, Argo float salinity measurement) in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea, the main SSS processes and their variability are studied. The gain obtained with the higher spatial and temporal resolution with SMOS salinity data give assess to study the characteristics of oceanic structures in North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea.

Climatic change by cloudiness linked to the spatial variability of sea surface temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.

1975-01-01

An active role in modifying the earth's climate is suggested for low cloudiness over the circumarctic oceans. Such cloudiness, linked to the spatial differences in ocean surface temperatures, was studied. The temporal variations from year to year of ocean temperature patterns can be pronounced and therefore, the low cloudiness over this region should also show strong temporal variations, affecting the albedo of the earth and therefore the climate. Photographs are included.

High-resolution IP25-based reconstruction of sea-ice variability in the western North Pacific and Bering Sea during the past 18,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méheust, Marie; Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten; Max, Lars; Riethdorf, Jan-Rainer

2016-04-01

Due to its strong influence on heat and moisture exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, sea ice is an essential component of the global climate system. In the context of its alarming decrease in terms of concentration, thickness and duration, understanding the processes controlling sea-ice variability and reconstructing paleo-sea-ice extent in polar regions have become of great interest for the scientific community. In this study, for the first time, IP25, a recently developed biomarker sea-ice proxy, was used for a high-resolution reconstruction of the sea-ice extent and its variability in the western North Pacific and western Bering Sea during the past 18,000 years. To identify mechanisms controlling the sea-ice variability, IP25 data were associated with published sea-surface temperature as well as diatom and biogenic opal data. The results indicate that a seasonal sea-ice cover existed during cold periods (Heinrich Stadial 1 and Younger Dryas), whereas during warmer intervals (Bølling-Allerød and Holocene) reduced sea ice or ice-free conditions prevailed in the study area. The variability in sea-ice extent seems to be linked to climate anomalies and sea-level changes controlling the oceanographic circulation between the subarctic Pacific and the Bering Sea, especially the Alaskan Stream injection though the Aleutian passes.

Testing for the Possible Influence of Unknown Climate Forcings upon Global Temperature Increases from 1950-2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Bruce T.; Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A.

2012-10-15

Global-scale variations in the climate system over the last half of the twentieth century, including long-term increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures, are consistent with concurrent human-induced emissions of radiatively active gases and aerosols. However, such consistency does not preclude the possible influence of other forcing agents, including internal modes of climate variability or unaccounted for aerosol effects. To test whether other unknown forcing agents may have contributed to multidecadal increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures from 1950 to 2000, data pertaining to observed changes in global-scale sea surface temperatures and observed changes in radiatively active atmospheric constituents are incorporated into numericalmore » global climate models. Results indicate that the radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trends in sea surface temperatures—and global-mean near-surface temperatures—is provided predominantly by known changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Further, results indicate that less than 10% of the long-term historical increase in global-mean near-surface temperatures over the last half of the twentieth century could have been the result of internal climate variability. In addition, they indicate that less than 25%of the total radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trend in global-mean near-surface temperatures could have been provided by changes in net radiative forcing from unknown sources (either positive or negative). These results, which are derived from simple energy balance requirements, emphasize the important role humans have played in modifying the global climate over the last half of the twentieth century.« less

Evaluation of Oceanic Surface Observation for Reproducing the Upper Ocean Structure in ECHAM5/MPI-OM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Hao; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2017-12-01

Better constraints of initial conditions from data assimilation are necessary for climate simulations and predictions, and they are particularly important for the ocean due to its long climate memory; as such, ocean data assimilation (ODA) is regarded as an effective tool for seasonal to decadal predictions. In this work, an ODA system is established for a coupled climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM), which can assimilate all available oceanic observations using an ensemble optimal interpolation approach. To validate and isolate the performance of different surface observations in reproducing air-sea climate variations in the model, a set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) was performed over 150 model years. Generally, assimilating sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface height (SSH) can reasonably reproduce the climate variability and vertical structure of the upper ocean, and assimilating SSH achieves the best results compared to the true states. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), assimilating different surface observations captures true aspects of ENSO well, but assimilating SSH can further enhance the accuracy of ENSO-related feedback processes in the coupled model, leading to a more reasonable ENSO evolution and air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific. For ocean heat content, there are still limitations in reproducing the long time-scale variability in the North Atlantic, even if SSH has been taken into consideration. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of assimilating surface observations in capturing the interannual signal and, to some extent, the decadal signal but still highlight the necessity of assimilating profile data to reproduce specific decadal variability.

Tree-Structured Methods for Prediction and Data Visualization

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-18

which variables are most important for predicting smoking abstinence . GUIDE, on the other hand, can model interactions of any order. Fur- ther, it...tree for predicting smoking abstinence after one week of treatment. An observation goes to the left node if and only if the stated condition is...H. E., and Loh, W.-Y. (2009). Which surface atmospheric variable drives the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature over the global ocean

Large-scale sea surface temperature variability from satellite and shipboard measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bernstein, R. L.; Chelton, D. B.

1985-01-01

A series of satellite sea surface temperature intercomparison workshops were conducted under NASA sponsorship at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Three different satellite data sets were compared with each other, with routinely collected ship data, and with climatology, for the months of November 1979, December 1981, March 1982, and July 1982. The satellite and ship data were differenced against an accepted climatology to produce anomalies, which in turn were spatially and temporally averaged into two-degree latitude-longitude, one-month bins. Monthly statistics on the satellite and ship bin average temperatures yielded rms differences ranging from 0.58 to 1.37 C, and mean differences ranging from -0.48 to 0.72 C, varying substantially from month to month, and sensor to sensor.

Extratropical Influence of Sea Surface Temperature and Wind on Water Recycling Rate Over Oceans and Coastal Lands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, Hua; Liu, W. Timothy

1999-01-01

Water vapor and precipitation are two important parameters confining the hydrological cycle in the atmosphere and over the ocean surface. In the extratropical areas, due to variations of midlatitude storm tracks and subtropical jetstreams, water vapor and precipitation have large variability. Recently, a concept of water recycling rate defined previously by Chahine et al. (GEWEX NEWS, August, 1997) has drawn increasing attention. The recycling rate of moisture is calculated as the ratio of precipitation to total precipitable water (its inverse is the water residence time). In this paper, using multi-sensor spacebased measurements we will study the role of sea surface temperature and ocean surface wind in determining the water recycling rate over oceans and coastal lands. Response of water recycling rate in midlatitudes to the El Nino event will also be discussed. Sea surface temperature data are derived from satellite observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) blended with in situ measurements, available for the period 1982-1998. Global sea surface wind observations are obtained from spaceborne scatterometers aboard on the European Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS1 and 2), available for the period 1991-1998. Global total precipitable water provided by the NASA Water Vapor Project (NVAP) is available for the period 1988-1995. Global monthly mean precipitation provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is available for the period 1987-1998.

Phytoplankton in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas: Distributions, Dynamics and Environmental Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jian; Cota, Glenn F.; Comiso, Josefino C.

2005-01-01

Time-series of remotely sensed distributions of phytoplankton, sea ice, surface temperature, albedo, and clouds were examined to evaluate the impact of the variability of environmental conditions and physical forcing on the phytoplankton distribution in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Large-scale distributions of these parameters were studied for the first time using weekly and monthly composites from April 1998 through September 2002. The basic data set used in this study are phytoplankton pigment concentration derived from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), ice concentration obtained from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and surface temperature, cloud cover, and albedo derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Seasonal variations of the sea ice cover was observed to be the dominant environmental factor as the ice edge blooms followed the retreating marginal ice zones northward. Blooms were most prominent in the southwestern Chukchi Sea, and were especially persistent immediately north of the Bering Strait in nutrient- rich Anadyr water and in some fronts. Chlorophyll concentrations are shown to increase from a nominal value during onset of melt in April to a maximum value in mid-spring or summer depending on location. Large interannual variability of ice cover and phytoplankton distributions was observed with the year 1998 being uniquely associated with an early season occurrence of a massive bloom. This is postulated to be caused in part by a rapid response of phytoplankton to an early retreat of the sea ice cover in the Beaufort Sea region. Correlation analyses showed relatively high negative correlation between chlorophyll and ice concentration with the correlation being highest in May, the correlation coefficient being -0.45. 1998 was also the warmest among the five years globally and the sea ice cover was least extensive in the Beaufort-Khukchi Sea region, partly because of the 1997-98 El Nino. Strong correlations were noted between ice extent and surface temperature, the correlation coefficient being highest at - 0.79 in April, during the onset of the bloom period

Submesoscale Sea Surface Temperature Variability from UAV and Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, S. L.; Emery, W. J.; Tandy, W., Jr.; Good, W. S.

2017-12-01

Technological advances in spatial resolution of observations have revealed the importance of short-lived ocean processes with scales of O(1km). These submesoscale processes play an important role for the transfer of energy from the meso- to small scales and for generating significant spatial and temporal intermittency in the upper ocean, critical for the mixing of the oceanic boundary layer. Submesoscales have been observed in sea surface temperatures (SST) from satellites. Satellite SST measurements are spatial averages over the footprint of the satellite. When the variance of the SST distribution within the footprint is small, the average value is representative of the SST over the whole pixel. If the variance is large, the spatial heterogeneity is a source of uncertainty in satellite derived SSTs. Here we show evidence that the submesoscale variability in SSTs at spatial scales of 1km is responsible for the spatial variability within satellite footprints. Previous studies of the spatial variability in SST, using ship-based radiometric data suggested that variability at scales smaller than 1 km is significant and affects the uncertainty of satellite-derived skin SSTs. We examine data collected by a calibrated thermal infrared radiometer, the Ball Experimental Sea Surface Temperature (BESST), flown on a UAV over the Arctic Ocean and compare them with coincident measurements from the MODIS spaceborne radiometer to assess the spatial variability of SST within 1 km pixels. By taking the standard deviation of all the BESST measurements within individual MODIS pixels we show that significant spatial variability exists within the footprints. The distribution of the surface variability measured by BESST shows a peak value of O(0.1K) with 95% of the pixels showing σ < 0.45K. More importantly, high-variability pixels are located at density fronts in the marginal ice zone, which are a primary source of submesoscale intermittency near the surface in the Arctic Ocean. Wavenumber spectra of the BESST SSTs indicate a spectral slope of -2, consistent with the presence of submesoscale processes. Furthermore, not only is the BESST wavenumber spectra able to match the MODIS SST spectra well, but also extends the spectral slope of -2 by 2 decades relative to MODIS, from wavelengths of 8km to 0.08km.

Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis; Case, Jonathan L.; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Mecikalski, John R.; Haines, Stephanie L.

2008-01-01

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics.

Interannual coherent variability of SSTA and SSHA in the Tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, J. Q.

2012-01-01

Sea surface height derived from the multiple ocean satellite altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, ERS, Envisat et al.) and sea surface temperature from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) over 1993-2008 are analyzed to investigate the coherent patterns between the interannual variability of the sea surface and subsurface in the Tropical Indian Ocean, by jointly adopting Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Extended Associate Pattern Analysis (EAPA) methods. Results show that there are two dominant coherent modes with the nearly same main period of about 3-5 yr, accounting for 86 % of the total covariance in all, but 90° phase difference between them. The primary pattern is characterized by a east-west dipole mode associated with the mature phase of ENSO, and the second presents a sandwich mode having one sign anomalies along Sumatra-Java coast and northeast of Madagascar, whilst an opposite sign between the two regions. The robust correlations of the sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) with sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the leading modes indicate a strong interaction between them, though the highest correlation coefficient appears with a time lag. And there may be some physical significance with respect to ocean dynamics implied in SSHA variability. Analyzing results show that the features of oceanic waves with basin scale, of which the Rossby wave is prominent, are apparent in the dominant modes. It is further demonstrated from the EAPA that the equatorial eastward Kelvin wave and off-equatorial westward Rossby wave as well as their reflection in the east and west boundary, respectively, are important dynamic mechanisms in the evolution of the two leading coherent patterns. Results of the present study suggest that the upper ocean thermal variations on the timescale of interannual coherent with the ocean dynamics in spatial structure and temporal evolution are mainly attributed to the ocean waves.

Understanding Climate Change and Sea Level: A Case Study of Middle School Student Comprehension and An Evaluation of Tide Gauges off the Panama Canal in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millan-Otoya, Juan C.

The present study had two main objectives. The first was to determine the degree of understanding of climate change, sea level and sea level rise among middle school students. Combining open-ended questions with likert-scaled questions, we identified student conceptions on these topics in 86 students from 7th and 8th grades during 2012 and 2013 before and after implementing a Curriculum Unit (CU). Additional information was obtained by adding drawings to the open-ended questions during the second year to gauge how student conceptions varied from a verbal and a visual perspective. Misconceptions were identified both pre- and post-CU among all the topics taught. Students commonly used climate and climate change as synonyms, sea level was often defined as water depth, and several students failed to understand the complexities that determine changes in sea level due to wind, tides, and changes in sea surface temperature. In general, 8th grade students demonstrated a better understanding of these topics, as reflected in fewer apparent misconceptions after the CU. No previous study had reported such improvement. This showed the value of implementing short lessons. Using Piaget's theories on cognitive development, the differences between 7th and 8th grade students reflect a transition to a more mature level which allowed students to comprehend more complex concepts that included multiple variables. The second objective was to determine if the frequency of sea level maxima not associated with tides over the last 100 years increased in two tide gauges located on the two extremes of the Panama canal, i.e. Balboa in the Pacific Ocean and Cristobal in the Caribbean Sea. These records were compared to time series of regional sea surface temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to determine if these played a role as physical drivers of sea level at either location. Neither record showed an increase in the frequency of sea level maxima events. No parameter analyzed explained variability in sea level maxima in Cristobal. There was a significant correlation between the zonal component of the wind and sea level at Balboa for the early record (r=0.153; p-value<0.05), but for the most part the p-values did not support the hypothesis of a correlation. Similarly, sea surface temperature had an effect on sea level at Balboa, but the null hypothesis that there is no correlation could not be rejected (p-value>0.05). There was a clear relationship between sea level maxima and ENSO. 70% of the years with higher counts of higher sea level events corresponded to El Nino years. A randomization test with 1000 iterations, shuffling the El Nino years, showed most of these randomizations grouped between 14-35% of the events occurring during a randomized El Nino year. In no iteration did the percentage of events that occurred during El Nino years rise above 65%. The correlation with zonal wind and the probable correlation with sea surface temperature can be linked via ENSO, since ENSO is associated with changes in the strength of the Trade Winds and positive anomalies in the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Sea surface temperature variability in the North Western Mediterranean Sea (Gulf of Lion) during the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Jalali, Bassem; Martrat, Belen; Schmidt, Sabine; Bassetti, Maria-Angela; Kallel, Nejib

2016-12-01

This study investigates the multidecadal-scale variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the convection region of the Gulf of Lion (NW Mediterranean Sea) over the full past 2000 yr (Common Era) using alkenone biomarkers. Our data show colder SSTs by 1.7 °C over most of the first millennium (200-800 AD) and by 1.3 °C during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1400-1850 AD) than the 20th century mean (17.9 °C). Although on average warmer, those of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (1000-1200 AD) were lower by 1 °C. We found a mean SST warming of 2 °C/100 yr over the last century in close agreement with the 0.22 and 0.26 °C/decade values calculated for the western Mediterranean Sea from in situ and satellite data, respectively. Our results also reveal strongly fluctuating SSTs characterized by cold extremes followed by abrupt warming during the LIA. We suggest that the coldest decades of the LIA were likely caused by prevailing negative EA states and associated anticyclone blocking over the North Atlantic resulting in cold continental northeasterly winds to blow over Western Europe and the Mediterranean region.

Ocean acidification state in western Antarctic surface waters: drivers and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattsdotter Björk, M.; Fransson, A.; Chierici, M.

2013-05-01

Each December during four years from 2006 to 2010, the surface water carbonate system was measured and investigated in the Amundsen Sea and Ross Sea, western Antarctica as part of the Oden Southern Ocean expeditions (OSO). The I/B Oden started in Punta Arenas in Chile and sailed southwest, passing through different regimes such as, the marginal/seasonal ice zone, fronts, coastal shelves, and polynyas. Discrete surface water was sampled underway for analysis of total alkalinity (AT), total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) and pH. Two of these parameters were used together with sea-surface temperature (SST), and salinity to obtain a full description of the surface water carbonate system, including pH in situ and calcium carbonate saturation state of aragonite (ΩAr) and calcite (ΩCa). Multivariate analysis was used to investigate interannual variability and the major controls (sea-ice concentration, SST, salinity and chlorophyll a) on the variability in the carbonate system and Ω. This analysis showed that SST and chlorophyll a were the major drivers of the Ω variability in both the Amundsen and Ross seas. In 2007, the sea-ice edge was located further south and the area of the open polynya was relatively small compared to 2010. We found the lowest pH in situ (7.932) and Ω = 1 values in the sea-ice zone and in the coastal Amundsen Sea, nearby marine out flowing glaciers. In 2010, the sea-ice coverage was the largest and the areas of the open polynyas were the largest for the whole period. This year we found the lowest salinity and AT, coinciding with highest chl a. This implies that the highest ΩAr in 2010 was likely an effect of biological CO2 drawdown, which out-competed the dilution of carbonate ion concentration due to large melt water volumes. We predict and discuss future Ω values, using our data and reported rates of oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, suggesting that the Amundsen Sea will become undersaturated with regard to aragonite about 20 yr sooner than predicted by models.

External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otterå, Odd Helge; Bentsen, Mats; Drange, Helge; Suo, Lingling

2010-10-01

Instrumental records, proxy data and climate modelling show that multidecadal variability is a dominant feature of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature variations, with potential impacts on regional climate. To understand the observed variability and to gauge any potential for climate predictions it is essential to identify the physical mechanisms that lead to this variability, and to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal variability modes. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to show that the phasing of the multidecadal fluctuations in the North Atlantic during the past 600 years is, to a large degree, governed by changes in the external solar and volcanic forcings. We find that volcanoes play a particularly important part in the phasing of the multidecadal variability through their direct influence on tropical sea-surface temperatures, on the leading mode of northern-hemisphere atmosphere circulation and on the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. We suggest that the implications of our findings for decadal climate prediction are twofold: because volcanic eruptions cannot be predicted a decade in advance, longer-term climate predictability may prove challenging, whereas the systematic post-eruption changes in ocean and atmosphere may hold promise for shorter-term climate prediction.

Satellite microwave and in situ observations of the Weddell Sea ice cover and its marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, J. C.; Sullivan, C. W.

1986-01-01

The radiative and physical characteristics of the Weddell Sea ice cover and its marginal ice zone are analyzed using multichannel satellite passive microwave data and ship and helicopter observations obtained during the 1983 Antarctic Marine Ecosystem Research. Winter and spring brightness temperatures are examined; spatial variability in the brightness temperatures of consolidated ice in winter and spring cyclic increases and decrease in brightness temperatures of consolidated ice with an amplitude of 50 K at 37 GHz and 20 K at 18 GHz are observed. The roles of variations in air temperature and surface characteristics in the variability of spring brightness temperatures are investigated. Ice concentrations are derived using the frequency and polarization techniques, and the data are compared with the helicopter and ship observations. Temporal changes in the ice margin structure and the mass balance of fresh water and of biological features of the marginal ice zone are studied.

Ocean Surface Carbon Dioxide Fugacity Observed from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy; Xie, Xiaosu

2014-01-01

We have developed and validated a statistical model to estimate the fugacity (or partial pressure) of carbon dioxide (CO2) at sea surface (pCO2sea) from space-based observations of sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll, and salinity. More than a quarter million in situ measurements coincident with satellite data were compiled to train and validate the model. We have produced and made accessible 9 years (2002-2010) of the pCO2sea at 0.5 degree resolutions daily over the global ocean. The results help to identify uncertainties in current JPL Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) model-based and bottom-up estimates over the ocean. The utility of the data to reveal multi-year and regional variability of the fugacity in relation to prevalent oceanic parameters is demonstrated.

Spatiotemporal correlation structure of the Earth's surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fredriksen, Hege-Beate; Rypdal, Kristoffer; Rypdal, Martin

2015-04-01

We investigate the spatiotemporal temperature variability for several gridded instrumental and climate model data sets. The temporal variability is analysed by estimating the power spectral density and studying the differences between local and global temperatures, land and sea, and among local temperature records at different locations. The spatiotemporal correlation structure is analysed through cross-spectra that allow us to compute frequency-dependent spatial autocorrelation functions (ACFs). Our results are then compared to theoretical spectra and frequency-dependent spatial ACFs derived from a fractional stochastic-diffusive energy balance model (FEBM). From the FEBM we expect both local and global temperatures to have a long-range persistent temporal behaviour, and the spectral exponent (β) is expected to increase by a factor of two when going from local to global scales. Our comparison of the average local spectrum and the global spectrum shows good agreement with this model, although the FEBM has so far only been studied for a pure land planet and a pure ocean planet, respectively, with no seasonal forcing. Hence it cannot capture the substantial variability among the local spectra, in particular between the spectra for land and sea, and for equatorial and non-equatorial temperatures. Both models and observation data show that land temperatures in general have a low persistence, while sea surface temperatures show a higher, and also more variable degree of persistence. Near the equator the spectra deviate from the power-law shape expected from the FEBM. Instead we observe large variability at time scales of a few years due to ENSO, and a flat spectrum at longer time scales, making the spectrum more reminiscent of that of a red noise process. From the frequency-dependent spatial ACFs we observe that the spatial correlation length increases with increasing time scale, which is also consistent with the FEBM. One consequence of this is that longer-lasting structures must also be wider in space. The spatial correlation length is also observed to be longer for land than for sea. The climate model simulations studied are mainly CMIP5 control runs of length 500-1000 yr. On time scales up to several centuries we do not observe that the difference between the local and global spectral exponents vanish. This also follows from the FEBM and shows that the dynamics is spatiotemporal (not just temporal) even on these time scales.

On the persistence and coherence of subpolar sea surface temperature and salinity anomalies associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rong

2017-08-01

This study identifies key features associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in both observations and a fully coupled climate model, e.g., decadal persistence of monthly mean subpolar North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) anomalies, and high coherence at low frequency among subpolar NA SST/SSS, upper ocean heat/salt content, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) fingerprint. These key AMV features, which can be used to distinguish the AMV mechanism, cannot be explained by the slab ocean model results or the red noise process but are consistent with the ocean dynamics mechanism. This study also shows that at low frequency, the correlation and regression between net surface heat flux and SST anomalies are key indicators of the relative roles of oceanic versus atmospheric forcing in SST anomalies. The oceanic forcing plays a dominant role in the subpolar NA SST anomalies associated with the AMV.

An Assessment of Southern Ocean Water Masses and Sea Ice During 1988-2007 in a Suite of Interannual CORE-II Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Downes, Stephanie M.; Farneti, Riccardo; Uotila, Petteri; Griffies, Stephen M.; Marsland, Simon J.; Bailey, David; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne;

Analysis of L-band radiometric data over the Mediterranean Sea from the SMOS Validation Rehearsal campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabarro, C.; Talone, M.; Font, J.

2009-04-01

L-band radiometric data obtained with a real aperture airborne radiometer during SMOS validation Rehearsal campaign (April-May 2008) over the NW Mediterranean Sea have been analysed. EMIRAD, a fully polarimetric radiometer developed by the Technical University of Denmark operating in the 1400 - 1427 MHz band, was mounted on board a Skyvan aircraft from the Helsinki University of Technology. Two antennas were used: one facing nadir with 37.6° full aperture at half-power; and one placed towards the rear of the aircraft at 40° zenith angle with 30.6° full aperture at half-power. Two transit flights over the sea from Marseille to Valencia (19 April 2008) and from Valencia to Marseille (3 May 2008) have been studied. Two meteorological and oceanographic buoys were moored 40 Km offshore in front of Tarragona and were overflown during these transits. Additionally, information on sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) was obtained from operational model outputs (Mediterranean Forecasting System - Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network) and wind speed from QuikSCAT. Measured brightness temperatures (Tb) have been compared with modelled Tb, using a semi-empirical emissivity model: Klein and Swift model is used to define the dielectric constant and Hollinger model for the rough sea emissivity contribution. Comparisons show that in general measured Tb variability fits with modelled variability, although a bias is observed in the aft V channel.

Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiping; Zhang, Zhanhai; Hu, Yongyun; Chen, Liqi; Dai, Yongjiu; Ren, Xiaobo

2008-05-01

The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979-1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi-model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across-model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter-model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.

Response of wheat yield in Spain to large-scale patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Barrera, Sara; Rodriguez-Puebla, Concepcion

2016-04-01

Crops are vulnerable to extreme climate conditions as drought, heat stress and frost risk. In previous study we have quantified the influence of these climate conditions for winter wheat in Spain (Hernandez-Barrera et al. 2015). The climate extremes respond to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic patterns. Therefore, a question emerges in our investigation: How large-scale patterns affect wheat yield? Obtaining and understanding these relationships require different approaches. In this study, we first obtained the leading mode of observed wheat yield variability to characterize the common variability over different provinces in Spain. Then, the wheat variability is related to different modes of mean sea level pressure, jet stream and sea surface temperature by using Partial Least-Squares, which captures the relevant climate drivers accounting for variations in wheat yield from sowing to harvesting. We used the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (ERSST v3b). The derived model provides insight about the teleconnections between wheat yield and atmospheric and oceanic circulations, which is considered to project the wheat yield trend under global warming using outputs of twelve climate models corresponding to the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Hernandez-Barrera S., C. Rodríguez-Puebla and A.J. Challinor. Effects of diurnal temperature range and drought on wheat yield in Spain. Theoretical and Applied Climatology (submitted)

The contrasting response of Hadley circulation to different meridional structure of sea surface temperature in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Juan; Li, Jianping; Zhu, Jianlei; Li, Yang; Li, Fei

2018-02-01

The response of the Hadley circulation (HC) to the sea surface temperature (SST) is determined by the meridional structure of SST and varies according to the changing nature of this meridional structure. The capability of the models from the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is utilized to represent the contrast response of the HC to different meridional SST structures. To evaluate the responses, the variations of HC and SST were linearly decomposed into two components: the equatorially asymmetric (HEA for HC, and SEA for SST) and equatorially symmetric (HES for HC, and SES for SST) components. The result shows that the climatological features of HC and tropical SST (including the spatial structures and amplitude) are reasonably simulated in all the models. However, the response contrast of HC to different SST meridional structures shows uncertainties among models. This may be due to the fact that the long-term temporal variabilities of HEA, HES, and SEA are limited reproduced in the models, although the spatial structures of their long-term variabilities are relatively reasonably simulated. These results indicate that the performance of the CMIP5 models to simulate long-term temporal variability of different meridional SST structures and related HC variations plays a fundamental role in the successful reproduction of the response of HC to different meridional SST structures.

Long-Term Trends, Variability and Extremes of In Situ Sea Surface Temperature Measured Along the Eastern Adriatic Coast and its Relationship to Hemispheric Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grbec, Branka; Matić, Frano; Beg Paklar, Gordana; Morović, Mira; Popović, Ružica; Vilibić, Ivica

2018-02-01

This paper examines long-term series of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) data measured at nine coastal and one open sea stations along the eastern Adriatic Sea for the period 1959-2015. Monthly and yearly averages were used to document SST trends and variability, while clustering and connections to hemispheric indices were achieved by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method. Both PCA and SOM revealed the dominance of temporal changes with respect to the effects of spatial differences in SST anomalies, indicating the prevalence of hemispheric processes over local dynamics, such as bora wind spatial inhomogeneity. SST extremes were connected with blocking atmospheric patterns. A substantial warming between 1979 and 2015, in total exceeding 1 °C, was preceded by a period with a negative SST trend, implying strong multidecadal variability in the Adriatic. The strongest connection was found between yearly SST and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns were found to also affect February SST values. Quantification of the Adriatic SST and their connection to hemispheric indices allow for more precise projections of future SST, considered to be rather important for Adriatic thermohaline circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries, and sensitive to ongoing climate change.

Are changes in the phytoplankton community structure altering the flux of CO2 in regions of the North Atlantic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostle, C.; Landschutzer, P.; Johnson, M.; Schuster, U.; Watson, A. J.; Edwards, M.; Robinson, C.

2016-02-01

The North Atlantic Ocean is a globally important sink of carbon dioxide (CO2). However, the strength of the sink varies temporally and regionally. This study uses a neural network method to map the surface ocean pCO2 (partial pressure of CO2) and flux of CO2from the atmosphere to the ocean alongside measurements of plankton abundance collected from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey to determine the relationship between regional changes in phytoplankton community structure and regional differences in carbon flux. Despite increasing sea surface temperatures, the Grand Banks of Newfoundland show a decrease in sea surface pCO2 of -2 µatm yr-1 from 1993 to 2011. The carbon flux in the North Sea is variable over the same period. This is in contrast to most of the open ocean within the North Atlantic, where increases in sea surface pCO2 follow the trend of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, i.e. the flux or sink remains constant. The increasing CO2 sink in the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and the variable sink in the North Sea correlate with changes in phytoplankton community composition. This study investigates the biogeochemical and oceanographic mechanisms potentially linking increasing sea surface temperature, changes in phytoplankton community structure and the changing carbon sink in these two important regions of the Atlantic Ocean. The use of volunteer ships to concurrently collect these datasets demonstrates the potential to investigate relationships between plankton community structure and carbon flux in a cost-effective way. These results not only have implications for plankton-dynamic biogeochemical models, but also likely influence carbon export, as different phytoplankton communities have different carbon export efficiencies. Extending and maintaining such datasets is critical to improving our understanding of and monitoring carbon cycling in the surface ocean and improving climate model accuracy.

Assimilation of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Fields: Validating Ocean Analyses and Identifying Errors in Surface Buoyancy Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehra, A.; Nadiga, S.; Bayler, E. J.; Behringer, D.

2014-12-01

Recently available satellite sea-surface salinity (SSS) fields provide an important new global data stream for assimilation into ocean forecast systems. In this study, we present results from assimilating satellite SSS fields from NASA's Aquarius mission into the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) operational Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4), the oceanic component of NOAA's operational seasonal-interannual Climate Forecast System (CFS). Experiments on the sensitivity of the ocean's overall state to different relaxation time periods were run to evaluate the importance of assimilating high-frequency (daily to mesoscale) and low-frequency (seasonal) SSS variability. Aquarius SSS data (Aquarius Data Processing System (ADPS) version 3.0), mapped daily fields at 1-degree spatial resolution, were used. Four model simulations were started from the same initial ocean condition and forced with NOAA's daily Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) fluxes, using a relaxation technique to assimilate daily satellite sea surface temperature (SST) fields and selected SSS fields, where, except as noted, a 30-day relaxation period is used. The simulations are: (1) WOAMC, the reference case and similar to the operational setup, assimilating monthly climatological SSS from the 2009 NOAA World Ocean Atlas; (2) AQ_D, assimilating daily Aquarius SSS; (3) AQ_M, assimilating monthly Aquarius SSS; and (4) AQ_D10, assimilating daily Aquarius SSS, but using a 10-day relaxation period. The analysis focuses on the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the salinity dynamics are intense and dominated by El Niño interannual variability in the cold tongue region and by high-frequency precipitation events in the western Pacific warm pool region. To assess the robustness of results and conclusions, we also examine the results for the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Preliminary validation studies are conducted using observations, such as satellite sea-surface height (SSH) fields and in situ Argo buoy vertical profiles of temperature and salinity, to demonstrate that SSS data assimilation improves ocean state representation of the following variables: ocean heat content (0-300m), dynamic height (0-1000m), mixed-layer depth, sea surface heigh, and surface buoyancy fluxes.

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

PubMed

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

2015-08-11

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

Reconstruction of Monsoon Driven South China Sea Surface Ocean Circulation using Coral Δ14C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodkin, N.; Bolton, A.; Karnauskas, K. B.; Hughen, K. A.; Griffin, S.; Druffel, E. R. M.

2016-12-01

The need to improve our understanding of annual and decadal climate behavior in the South China Sea is increasingly important, as this region includes the largest population density globally but encompasses few climate records. Here we present a record of annually resolved Δ14C from a coral collected off the coast of Nha Trang, Vietnam (12°12'49.90″N, 109°18'17.51″E), that reveals a significant correlation to regional winter sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST), and extends back more than 400 years. Coral Δ14C during thermonuclear bomb testing indicates the presence of wet-season (summer) upwelling, demonstrated by low Δ14C values for both baseline and peak values relative to other records in the region (Bolton et al., 2016, Radiocarbon). However, annually resolved pre-bomb Δ14C correlates significantly to regional dry-season (winter) SLP and SST, indicating that annual variability is driven by changes to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and subsequent down-welling at this site. Spectral density is focused at 25, 11.8, 7, 4, and 3.2 years per cycle reflecting a range of influences on surface advection variability including the EAWM (D'Arrigo et al., 2005, GRL) and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Spectral power at all of these frequencies decreases following the Little Ice Age ( 1600-1850?) to today, indicating that wind driven surface advection was more variable when hemispheric temperatures were cooler. Decadal variance in the past 100 years is significantly correlated to variance records of the Arctic Oscillation (AO, Thompson and Wallace, 1989, GRL), suggesting that increasing variance in the EAWM may be tied to increasing variance of the AO during the Little Ice Age and vice versa.

Predictability of Subsurface Temperature and the AMOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Y.; Schubert, S. D.

2013-12-01

GEOS 5 coupled model is extensively used for experimental decadal climate prediction. Understanding the limits of decadal ocean predictability is critical for making progress in these efforts. Using this model, we study the subsurface temperature initial value predictability, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its impacts on the global climate. Our approach is to utilize the idealized data assimilation technology developed at the GMAO. The technique 'replay' allows us to assess, for example, the impact of the surface wind stresses and/or precipitation on the ocean in a very well controlled environment. By running the coupled model in replay mode we can in fact constrain the model using any existing reanalysis data set. We replay the model constraining (nudging) it to the MERRA reanalysis in various fields from 1948-2012. The fields, u,v,T,q,ps, are adjusted towards the 6-hourly analyzed fields in atmosphere. The simulated AMOC variability is studied with a 400-year-long segment of replay integration. The 84 cases of 10-year hindcasts are initialized from 4 different replay cycles. Here, the variability and predictability are examined further by a measure to quantify how much the subsurface temperature and AMOC variability has been influenced by atmospheric forcing and by ocean internal variability. The simulated impact of the AMOC on the multi-decadal variability of the SST, sea surface height (SSH) and sea ice extent is also studied.

Intraseasonal Characteristics Of North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bojariu, R.; Gimeno, L..; de La Torre, L.; Nieto, R.

There is evidence of a temporal structure of regional response to the NAO variability in the cold season (e.g. NAO-related climate fluctuations reveal their strongest signal in January). To document the details of NAO intraseasonal characteristics we anal- ysed surface and upper air variables (air surface temperature, sea-ice concentration, sea surface temperature, and sea level pressure and geopotential heights at 700 hPa level) in individual months, from November to April. The data consist of 40 years of monthly reanalyses (1961-2000) extracted from the NCAR-NCEP data set. In ad- dition, snow cover data are used (monthly snow cover frequencies from the Climate Prediction Centre and number of days with snow cover from the Former Soviet Union Hydrological Snow Surveys available at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre). A NAO-related signal with predictive potential has been identified in November air surface temperature over Europe and SLP and geopotential heights over Eurasia. Neg- ative thermal anomalies over the Central Europe and positive geopotential anomalies at 700 hPa over a latitudinal belt from Arabic Peninsula to Pacific Ocean are associated with a high NAO index in the following winter. The November thermal anomalies that seem to be related to the NAO interannual persistence are also linked with the fluctu- ations of snow cover over Europe. Both tropical and high latitude influences may play a role in the onset of the November signal and in further NAO development.

Coupled sea surface temperature-seawater δ18O reconstructions in the Arabian Sea at the millennial scale for the last 35 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anand, Pallavi; Kroon, Dick; Singh, Arun Deo; Ganeshram, Raja S.; Ganssen, Gerald; Elderfield, Henry

2008-12-01

Two sediment cores from the western (905; 10.46°9'N, 51.56°4'E, water depth 1586 m) and eastern (SK17; 15°15'N, 72°58'E, water depth 840 m) Arabian Sea were used to study past sea surface temperatures (SST) and seawater δ18O (δ18Ow) variations for the past 35 ka. We used coupled Mg/Ca-δ18O calcite variability in two planktonic foraminiferal species: Globigerinoides ruber, which thrives throughout the year, and Globigerina bulloides, which occurs mainly when surface waters contain high nutrients during upwelling or convective mixing. SSTs in both areas based on Mg/Ca in G. ruber were ˜3 to 4°C lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ˜21 ka) than today and the Holocene period. The SST records based on G. bulloides also indicate general cooling, down to 18°C in both areas. SSTs in the western Arabian Sea based on G. bulloides were always lower than those based on G. ruber, indicating the presence of strong seasonal temperature contrast during the Holocene and LGM. We interpret the consistent presence of this seasonal temperature contrast to reflect a combination of seasonal summer upwelling (SW monsoon) and winter convective mixing (NE monsoon) in the western Arabian Sea. In the eastern Arabian Sea, G. bulloides-based SSTs were slightly lower (about 1°C) than G. ruber-based SSTs during the Holocene, indicating the almost absence of a seasonal temperature gradient, similar to today. However, a large seasonal temperature contrast occurred during the LGM which favors the assumption that strong NE monsoon winds forced winter upwelling or convective mixing offshore Goa. SST and δ18Ow reconstructions reveal evidence of millennial-scale cycles, particularly in the eastern Arabian Sea. Here, the stadial periods (Northern Hemisphere cold periods such as Younger Dryas and Heinrich events) are marked by increasing SSTs and salty sea surface conditions relative to those during the interstadial periods. Indeed, the δ18Ow record shows evidence of low-saline surface waters during interstadial periods, indicating increased freshwater runoff from the Western Ghats as a consequence of enhanced SW monsoon intensity.

Large Scale Drivers for the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

The British Isles experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions in winter 2013-2014 while large parts of central North America recorded near record minimum surface temperatures values. Potential drivers for these cold conditions include increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the Europe, particularly the UK. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We will firstly analyse anomaly patterns along such a potential link in winter 2013-14. Secondly, we will investigate whether these identified anomaly patterns show a strong interannual relationship in the recent past. Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

Heat transfer in melt ponds with convection and radiative heating: observationally-inspired modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, A.; Langton, T.; Rees Jones, D. W.; Moon, W.; Kim, J. H.; Wilkinson, J.

2016-12-01

Melt ponds have key impacts on the evolution of Arctic sea ice and summer ice melt. Small changes to the energy budget can have significant consequences, with a net heat-flux perturbation of only a few Watts per square metre sufficient to explain the thinning of sea ice over recent decades. Whilst parameterisations of melt-pond thermodynamics often assume that pond temperatures remain close to the freezing point, recent in-situ observations show more complex thermal structure with significant diurnal and synoptic variability. We here consider the energy budget of melt ponds and explore the role of internal convective heat transfer in determining the thermal structure within the pond in relatively calm conditions with low winds. We quantify the energy fluxes and temperature variability using two-dimensional direct numerical simulations of convective turbulence within a melt pond, driven by internal radiative heating and surface fluxes. Our results show that the convective flow dynamics are modulated by changes to the incoming radiative flux and sensible heat flux at the pond surface. The evolving pond surface temperature controls the outgoing longwave emissions from the pond. Hence the convective flow modifies the net energy balance of a melt pond, modulating the relative fractions of the incoming heat flux that is re-emitted to the atmosphere or transferred downward into the sea ice to drive melt.

Temporal and Spatial Variability of the Ras Al-Hadd Jet/Front in the Northwest Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Shaqsi, Hilal Mohamed Said

Thirteen years of 1.1 km resolution daily satellites remote sensing sea surface temperature datasets (2002-2014), sea surface winds, sea surface height, Argo floats, daily three-hour interval wind datasets, and hourly records of oceanography physical parameters from mooring current meters were processed and analyzed to investigate the dynamics, temporal and spatial variability of the Ras Al-Hadd Jet off the northwest Arabian Sea. Cayula and Cornillon single image edge detection algorithm was used to detect these thermal fronts. The Ras Al-Hadd thermal front was found to have two seasonal peaks. The first peak occurred during the intensified southwest monsoon period (July/August), while the second peak was clearly observed during the transitional period or the Post-Southwest monsoon (September-October). Interannual and intraseasonal variability showed the occurrence of the Ras Al-Hadd thermal fronts in the northwest Arabian Sea. The southwest monsoon winds, the Somalia Current, the East Arabian Current, and the warmer high salinity waters from the Sea of Oman are the main factors influencing the creation of the Ras Al-Hadd Jet. Based on direct observations, current velocity in the Cape Ras Al-Hadd Jet exceeded 120 cms-1, and the wind speed was over 12 ms-1 during the southwest monsoon seasons. The mean width and the mean length of the Jet were approximately 40 km and 260 km, respectively. Neither the winter monsoon, nor the Pre-Southwest monsoon seasons showed signs of the Ras Al-Hadd Jet or fronts in the northwest Arabian Sea.

Towards uncertainty estimation for operational forecast products - a multi-model-ensemble approach for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golbeck, Inga; Li, Xin; Janssen, Frank

2014-05-01

Several independent operational ocean models provide forecasts of the ocean state (e.g. sea level, temperature, salinity and ice cover) in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on a daily basis. These forecasts are the primary source of information for a variety of information and emergency response systems used e.g. to issue sea level warnings or carry out oil drift forecast. The forecasts are of course highly valuable as such, but often suffer from a lack of information on their uncertainty. With the aim of augmenting the existing operational ocean forecasts in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea by a measure of uncertainty a multi-model-ensemble (MME) system for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and water transports has been set up in the framework of the MyOcean-2 project. Members of MyOcean-2, the NOOS² and HIROMB/BOOS³ communities provide 48h-forecasts serving as inputs. Different variables are processed separately due to their different physical characteristics. Based on the so far collected daily MME products of SST and SSS, a statistical method, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to assess their spatial and temporal variability. For sea surface currents, progressive vector diagrams at specific points are consulted to estimate the performance of the circulation models especially in hydrodynamic important areas, e.g. inflow/outflow of the Baltic Sea, Norwegian trench and English Channel. For further versions of the MME system, it is planned to extend the MME to other variables like e.g. sea level, ocean currents or ice cover based on the needs of the model providers and their customers. It is also planned to include in-situ data to augment the uncertainty information and for validation purposes. Additionally, weighting methods will be implemented into the MME system to develop more complex uncertainty measures. The methodology used to create the MME will be outlined and different ensemble products will be presented. In addition, some preliminary results based on the statistical analysis of the uncertainty measures provide first estimates of the regional and temporal performance of the ocean models for each parameter. ²Northwest European Shelf Operational Oceanography System ³High-resolution Operational Model of the Baltic / Baltic Operational Oceanographic System

Black sea surface temperature anomaly on 5th August 1998 and the ozone layer thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manev, A.; Palazov, K.; Raykov, St.; Ivanov, V.

2003-04-01

BLACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ON 5th AUGUST 1998 AND THE OZONE LAYER THICKNESS A. Manev , K. Palazov , St. Raykov, V. Ivanov Solar Terrestrial Influences Laboratory, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences amanev@abv.bg This paper focuses on the peculiarities of the Black Sea surface temperature anomaly on 05.08.1998. Researching the daily temperature changes in a number of control fields in the course of 8-10 years, we have found hidden correlations and anomalous deviations in the sea surface temperatures on a global scale. Research proves the statistical reliability of the temperature anomaly on the entire Black Sea surface registered on 04.-05.08.1998. In the course of six days around these dates the temperatures are up to 2°C higher than the maximum temperatures in this period in the other seven years. A more detailed analysis of the dynamics of the anomaly required the investigation of five Black Sea surface characteristic zones of 75x75 km. The analysis covers the period 20 days - 10 days before and 10 days after the anomaly. Investigations aimed at interpreting the reasons for the anomalous heating of the surface waters. We have tried to analyze the correlation between sea surface temperature and the global ozone above the Black Sea by using simultaneously data from the two satellite systems NOAA and TOMS. Methods of processing and comparing the data from the two satellite systems are described. The correlation coefficients values for the five characteristic zones are very high and close, which proves that the character of the correlation ozone - sea surface temperature is the same for the entire Black Sea surface. Despite the high correlation coefficient, we have proved that causality between the two phenomena at the time of the anomaly does not exit.

Seasonal and interannual variability of surface CDOM in the South China Sea associated with El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jinfeng; Zhan, Haigang; Du, Yan

2011-04-01

Satellite imagery of SeaWiFS from October 1997 to November 2007 is used to investigate the dominant seasonal and interannual variations of the surface light absorption due to Colored Dissolved Organic Materials (CDOM) in the South China Sea (SCS). Results show that the spatial distribution of CDOM mimics the major features of the SCS basin-scale circulation. High values of CDOM are found in upwelling regions like southeast of Vietnam in summer and northwest of Luzon in winter. At a basin scale, CDOM is high in winter when upwelling is strong, solar shortwave radiation and stratification weak, and vertical mixing intense. Opposite conditions exist in spring and summer. Interannual variability of the basin-wide CDOM is characterized by abnormal troughs during the El Niño events. A strong relationship exists between the time series of the first EOF mode (for both winter and summer) and Niño 3.4 Index. Associations of these events with climatic and hydrographic properties (i.e. wind forcing, solar shortwave radiation, Ekman pumping, vertical mixing, sea surface height and temperature) are discussed.

Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, A.; Xie, S. P.

2016-02-01

This study documents and investigates biases in simulating summer surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the continental U.S. in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate regression analyses are used to assess the relative importance of circulation and the land surface feedback at setting summer SAT over a 30-year period (1979-2008). In observations, regions of high SAT variability are closely associated with midtropospheric highs and subsidence, consistent with adiabatic theory (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004, Lau and Nath 2012). Preliminary analysis shows the majority of the AMIP models feature high SAT variability over the central U.S., displaced south and/or west of observed centers of action (COAs). SAT COAs in models tend to be concomitant with regions of high sensible heat flux variability, suggesting an excessive land surface feedback in these models modulate U.S. summer SAT. Additionally, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a role in forcing the leading EOF mode for summer SAT, in concert with internal atmospheric variability. There is evidence that models respond to different SST patterns than observed. Addressing issues with the bulk land surface feedback and the SST-forced component of atmospheric variability may be key to improving model skill in simulating summer SAT variability over the U.S.

[Habitat suitability index of larval Japanese Halfbeak (Hyporhamphus sajori) in Bohai Sea based on geographically weighted regression.

PubMed

Zhao, Yang; Zhang, Xue Qing; Bian, Xiao Dong

2018-01-01

To investigate the early supplementary processes of fishre sources in the Bohai Sea, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) was introduced to the habitat suitability index (HSI) model. The Bohai Sea larval Japanese Halfbeak HSI GWR model was established with four environmental variables, including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), water depth (DEP), and chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a). Results of the simulation showed that the four variables had different performances in August 2015. SST and Chl a were global variables, and had little impacts on HSI, with the regression coefficients of -0.027 and 0.006, respectively. SSS and DEP were local variables, and had larger impacts on HSI, while the average values of absolute values of their regression coefficients were 0.075 and 0.129, respectively. In the central Bohai Sea, SSS showed a negative correlation with HSI, and the most negative correlation coefficient was -0.3. In contrast, SSS was correlated positively but weakly with HSI in the three bays of Bohai Sea, and the largest correlation coefficient was 0.1. In particular, DEP and HSI were negatively correlated in the entire Bohai Sea, while they were more negatively correlated in the three bays of Bohai than in the central Bohai Sea, and the most negative correlation coefficient was -0.16 in the three bays. The Poisson regression coefficient of the HSI GWR model was 0.705, consistent with field measurements. Therefore, it could provide a new method for the research on fish habitats in the future.

Modern average global sea-surface temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schweitzer, Peter N.

1993-01-01

The data contained in this data set are derived from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Multichannel Sea Surface Temperature data (AVHRR MCSST), which are obtainable from the Distributed Active Archive Center at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, Calif. The JPL tapes contain weekly images of SST from October 1981 through December 1990 in nine regions of the world ocean: North Atlantic, Eastern North Atlantic, South Atlantic, Agulhas, Indian, Southeast Pacific, Southwest Pacific, Northeast Pacific, and Northwest Pacific. This data set represents the results of calculations carried out on the NOAA data and also contains the source code of the programs that made the calculations. The objective was to derive the average sea-surface temperature of each month and week throughout the whole 10-year series, meaning, for example, that data from January of each year would be averaged together. The result is 12 monthly and 52 weekly images for each of the oceanic regions. Averaging the images in this way tends to reduce the number of grid cells that lack valid data and to suppress interannual variability.

[Plankton dynamics in the South of California Current].

PubMed

Hernández Trujillo, S; Gómez Ochoa, F; Verdugo Díaz, G

2001-03-01

We analyzed zooplankton biomass, micro- and nannophytoplankton abundance, Calanus pacificus Brodsky 1948 abundance, and sea surface temperature along the west coast of Baja California between February 1983 and September 1991. The zooplankton biovolume abundance decreased from spring to autumn. The average abundance of nannophytoplankton (< 20 microns) was generally higher than microphytoplankton (> 20 microns). Both increased 3.5 times in abundance after 1986. Seasonally, both fractions (NP and MP) were least abundant in winter and most abundant in summer and autumn. Calanus pacificus abundance was variable, but especially high in May of some years. Abundance was lowest in winter and highest in spring, dropping in summer and autumn. Sea surface temperatures averaged 21.5 degrees C, with highest in autumn (24.2 degrees C) and the lowest in spring (17.9 degrees C). C. pacificus abundance and sea surface temperature were inversely related by cruise, season, and latitude. The phytoplankton abundance and zooplankton biomass and C. pacificus abundance showed low and high abundance patterns coincident with warming and cooling events (El Niño-La Niña).

A network model for characterizing brine channels in sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieblappen, Ross M.; Kumar, Deip D.; Pauls, Scott D.; Obbard, Rachel W.

2018-03-01

The brine pore space in sea ice can form complex connected structures whose geometry is critical in the governance of important physical transport processes between the ocean, sea ice, and surface. Recent advances in three-dimensional imaging using X-ray micro-computed tomography have enabled the visualization and quantification of the brine network morphology and variability. Using imaging of first-year sea ice samples at in situ temperatures, we create a new mathematical network model to characterize the topology and connectivity of the brine channels. This model provides a statistical framework where we can characterize the pore networks via two parameters, depth and temperature, for use in dynamical sea ice models. Our approach advances the quantification of brine connectivity in sea ice, which can help investigations of bulk physical properties, such as fluid permeability, that are key in both global and regional sea ice models.

Seasonal precipitation forecasting for the Melbourne region using a Self-Organizing Maps approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pidoto, Ross; Wallner, Markus; Haberlandt, Uwe

2017-04-01

The Melbourne region experiences highly variable inter-annual rainfall. For close to a decade during the 2000s, below average rainfall seriously affected the environment, water supplies and agriculture. A seasonal rainfall forecasting model for the Melbourne region based on the novel approach of a Self-Organizing Map has been developed and tested for its prediction performance. Predictor variables at varying lead times were first assessed for inclusion within the model by calculating their importance via Random Forests. Predictor variables tested include the climate indices SOI, DMI and N3.4, in addition to gridded global sea surface temperature data. Five forecasting models were developed: an annual model and four seasonal models, each individually optimized for performance through Pearson's correlation r and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The annual model showed a prediction performance of r = 0.54 and NSE = 0.14. The best seasonal model was for spring, with r = 0.61 and NSE = 0.31. Autumn was the worst performing seasonal model. The sea surface temperature data contributed fewer predictor variables compared to climate indices. Most predictor variables were supplied at a minimum lead, however some predictors were found at lead times of up to a year.

Mixing to Monsoons: Air-Sea Interactions in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, A. J.; Shroyer, E. L.; Wijesekera, H. W.; Fernando, H. J. S.; D'Asaro, E.; Ravichandran, M.; Jinadasa, S. U. P.; MacKinnon, J. A.; Nash, J. D.; Sharma, R.; Centurioni, L.; Farrar, J. T.; Weller, R.; Pinkel, R.; Mahadevan, A.; Sengupta, D.; Tandon, A.

2014-07-01

More than 1 billion people depend on rainfall from the South Asian monsoon for their livelihoods. Summertime monsoonal precipitation is highly variable on intraseasonal time scales, with alternating "active" and "break" periods. These intraseasonal oscillations in large-scale atmospheric convection and winds are closely tied to 1°C-2°C variations of sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal.

Sea ice and oceanic processes on the Ross Sea continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, S. S.; Comiso, J. C.

1989-12-01

We have investigated the spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic sea ice concentrations on the Ross Sea continental shelf, in relation to oceanic and atmospheric forcing. Sea ice data were derived from Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) brightness temperatures from 1979-1986. Ice cover over the shelf was persistently lower than above the adjacent deep ocean, averaging 86% during winter with little month-to-month or interannual variability. The large spring Ross Sea polynya on the western shelf results in a longer period of summer insolation, greater surface layer heat storage, and later ice formation in that region the following autumn. Newly identified Pennell and Ross Passage polynyas near the continental shelf break appear to be maintained in part by divergence above a submarine bank and by upwelling of warmer water near the slope front. Warmer subsurface water enters the shelf region year-round and will retard ice growth and enhance heat flux to the atmosphere when entrained in the strong winter vertical circulation. Temperatures at 125-m depth on a mooring near the Ross Ice Shelf during July 1984 averaged 0.15°C above freezing, sufficient to support a vertical heat flux above 100 W/m2. Monthly average subsurface ocean temperatures along the Ross Ice Shelf lag the air temperature cycle and begin to rise several weeks before spring ice breakout. The coarse SMMR resolution and dynamic ice shelf coastlines can compromise the use of microwave sea ice data near continental boundaries.

Importance of ocean mesoscale variability for air-sea interactions in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putrasahan, D. A.; Kamenkovich, I.; Le Hénaff, M.; Kirtman, B. P.

2017-06-01

Mesoscale variability of currents in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) can affect oceanic heat advection and air-sea heat exchanges, which can influence climate extremes over North America. This study is aimed at understanding the influence of the oceanic mesoscale variability on the lower atmosphere and air-sea heat exchanges. The study contrasts global climate model (GCM) with 0.1° ocean resolution (high resolution; HR) with its low-resolution counterpart (1° ocean resolution with the same 0.5° atmosphere resolution; LR). The LR simulation is relevant to current generation of GCMs that are still unable to resolve the oceanic mesoscale. Similar to observations, HR exhibits positive correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and surface turbulent heat flux anomalies, while LR has negative correlation. For HR, we decompose lateral advective heat fluxes in the upper ocean into mean (slowly varying) and mesoscale-eddy (fast fluctuations) components. We find that the eddy flux divergence/convergence dominates the lateral advection and correlates well with the SST anomalies and air-sea latent heat exchanges. This result suggests that oceanic mesoscale advection supports warm SST anomalies that in turn feed surface heat flux. We identify anticyclonic warm-core circulation patterns (associated Loop Current and rings) which have an average diameter of 350 km. These warm anomalies are sustained by eddy heat flux convergence at submonthly time scales and have an identifiable imprint on surface turbulent heat flux, atmospheric circulation, and convective precipitation in the northwest portion of an averaged anticyclone.

A reconstruction of sea surface temperature variability in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 1734 to 2008 C.E. using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLong, Kristine L.; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Poore, Richard Z.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Maupin, Christopher R.; Lin, Ke; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2014-05-01

This study uses skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42'N, 82°48'W) to reconstruct monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations from 1734 to 2008 Common Era (C.E.). Calibration and verification of the replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with local, regional, and historical temperature records reveals that this proxy-temperature relationship is stable back to 1879 C.E. The coral SST reconstruction contains robust interannual ( 2.0°C) and multidecadal variability ( 1.5°C) for the past 274 years, the latter of which does not covary with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Winter SST extremes are more variable than summer SST extremes (±2.2°C versus ±1.6°C, 2σ) suggesting that Loop Current transport in the winter dominates variability on interannual and longer time scales. Summer SST maxima are increasing (+1.0°C for 274 years, σMC = ±0.5°C, 2σ), whereas winter SST minima contain no significant trend. Colder decades ( 1.5°C) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) do not coincide with decades of sunspot minima. The coral SST reconstruction contains similar variability to temperature reconstructions from the northern Gulf of Mexico (planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca) and the Caribbean Sea (coral Sr/Ca) suggesting areal reductions in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool during the LIA. Mean summer coral SST extremes post-1985 C.E. (29.9°C) exceeds the long-term summer average (29.2°C for 1734-2008 C.E.), yet the warming trend after 1985 C.E. (0.04°C for 24 years, σMC = ±0.5, 2σ) is not significant, whereas Caribbean coral Sr/Ca studies contain a warming trend for this interval.

Environmental studies of the Arabian Sea using remote sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saxena, Ashlesha; Menezes, Andrew

2006-12-01

The Arabian Sea, situated in the western part of the northern Indian Ocean is a tropical basin. It is bounded on the east by the Indian peninsula, on the north by Baluchistan and Sindh provinces of Pakistan and on the west by the landmass of Arabia and Africa. The environmental factors that influence this tropical basin are the seasonally changing winds from the northeast during winter (November-February) and southwest during summer (June to September). Accordingly, the waters of the basin will experience seasonal variations. The study aims at understanding the seasonal and inter-annual variation of the Arabian Sea using satellite-derived data. The spatial domain selected for the present study is 40 degrees E and 78 degrees E longitude and equator to 30 degrees N. The remote sensing data with respect to sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface wind, sea surface height (SSH), and chlorophyll pigment concentration during January 2002 to December 2005 were used to understand the spatio-temporal variability of the Arabian Sea. The monthly mean SST data was obtained from Modis aqua, winds from Quikscat and chlorophyll pigment concentration from SeaWiFS. The SSH anomaly data was obtained from the merged product - Topex/Poseidon ERS 1/2 satellite which is 7-day snapshot. The spatial resolution of these data is 0.3 degrees latitude x 0.3 degrees longitude. Geographical information system (GIS) was used for processing and analysing the above parameters to determine the variability and detection of oceanic processes that are responsible for such variability.The study showed a very strong inverse correlation between SST and chlorophyll concentrations. Arabian Sea undergoes cooling during summer due to upwelling and advection, and in winter due to surface cooling under reduced solar heating. Upwelling along the coasts of Somalia, Arabia, and the west coast of India brings cold and nutrient rich sub-surface waters to the surface, which supports the observed high chlorophyll concentrations. During winter the convective mixing in the northern Arabian Sea supports high chlorophyll pigment concentrations. Due to strong solar heating, SST was warmest in spring (April), which supported least chlorophyll concentration.llite

Estimation of the barrier layer thickness in the Indian Ocean using Aquarius Salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felton, Clifford S.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Murty, V. S. N.; Shriver, Jay F.

2014-07-01

Monthly barrier layer thickness (BLT) estimates are derived from satellite measurements using a multilinear regression model (MRM) within the Indian Ocean. Sea surface salinity (SSS) from the recently launched Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Aquarius SAC-D salinity missions are utilized to estimate the BLT. The MRM relates BLT to sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST), and sea surface height anomalies (SSHA). Three regions where the BLT variability is most rigorous are selected to evaluate the performance of the MRM for 2012; the Southeast Arabian Sea (SEAS), Bay of Bengal (BoB), and Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO). The MRM derived BLT estimates are compared to gridded Argo and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) BLTs. It is shown that different mechanisms are important for sustaining the BLT variability in each of the selected regions. Sensitivity tests show that SSS is the primary driver of the BLT within the MRM. Results suggest that salinity measurements obtained from Aquarius and SMOS can be useful for tracking and predicting the BLT in the Indian Ocean. Largest MRM errors occur along coastlines and near islands where land contamination skews the satellite SSS retrievals. The BLT evolution during 2012, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the current model are discussed. BLT estimations using HYCOM simulations display large errors that are related to model layer structure and the selected BLT methodology.

Estimating the Ocean Flow Field from Combined Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Surface Height Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stammer, Detlef; Lindstrom, Eric (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This project was part of a previous grant at MIT that was moved over to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) together with the principal investigator. The final report provided here is concerned only with the work performed at SIO since January 2000. The primary focus of this project was the study of the three-dimensional, absolute and time-evolving general circulation of the global ocean from a combined analysis of remotely sensed fields of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH). The synthesis of those two fields was performed with other relevant physical data, and appropriate dynamical ocean models with emphasis on constraining ocean general circulation models by a combination of both SST and SSH data. The central goal of the project was to improve our understanding and modeling of the relationship between the SST and its variability to internal ocean dynamics, and the overlying atmosphere, and to explore the relative roles of air-sea fluxes and internal ocean dynamics in establishing anomalies in SST on annual and longer time scales. An understanding of those problems will feed into the general discussion on how SST anomalies vary with time and the extend to which they interact with the atmosphere.

Deep Coherent Vortices and Their Sea Surface Expressions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ienna, Federico; Bashmachnikov, Igor; Dias, Joaquim; Peliz, Alvaro

2017-04-01

Mediterranean Water eddies, known as Meddies, are an important dynamic process occurring at depths of 1000-meters in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. Meddies occur as a direct result of the Mediterranean Outflow exiting through the Gibraltar Strait, and represent a prevalent mechanism that can be found extensively throughout the ocean. Moreover, Meddy cores are known to produce measurable expressions at the sea surface in the form of rotating coherent vortices, not only affecting the sea surface from beneath, but also allowing for the possibility to remotely study these deep phenomena through data gathered at the sea surface. While many past studies have focused on the properties of Meddy cores, only a handful of studies focus on the physical characteristics and behavior of the surface expressions produced. Are Meddy surface expressions different from other like vortices that dominate the physical ocean surface? What are the relationships between deep and surface mechanisms, and do any feedbacks exist? To shed light on these questions, we investigate the relationship between Meddies and their sea-surface expressions through observations using in-situ float and drifter profiles and satellite altimetry. A total of 782 Meddy cores were examined in the Northeast Atlantic using temperature and salinity data obtained by CTD and Argo during the Mecanismos de transporte e de dispersão da Água Mediterrânica no Atlântico Nordeste (MEDTRANS) project, and their corresponding sea-level expressions were geo-temporally matched in satellite altimetry data. We report several statistical properties of the sea-surface expressions of Meddies, including their mean diameter and vertical magnitude, and compare the properties of their surface features to the underlying Meddy cores. We investigate how the deep core affects the surface, and whether surface expressions may in return yield information about the underlying cores. Additionally, we examine the variability of the surface expressions, including seasonal and geographical variability.

An evaluation of the use of remotely sensed parameters for prediction of incidence and risk associated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Gulf Coast oysters (Crassostrea virginica).

PubMed

Phillips, A M B; Depaola, A; Bowers, J; Ladner, S; Grimes, D J

2007-04-01

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently published a Vibrio parahaemolyticus risk assessment for consumption of raw oysters that predicts V. parahaemolyticus densities at harvest based on water temperature. We retrospectively compared archived remotely sensed measurements (sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, and turbidity) with previously published data from an environmental study of V. parahaemolyticus in Alabama oysters to assess the utility of the former data for predicting V. parahaemolyticus densities in oysters. Remotely sensed sea surface temperature correlated well with previous in situ measurements (R(2) = 0.86) of bottom water temperature, supporting the notion that remotely sensed sea surface temperature data are a sufficiently accurate substitute for direct measurement. Turbidity and chlorophyll levels were not determined in the previous study, but in comparison with the V. parahaemolyticus data, remotely sensed values for these parameters may explain some of the variation in V. parahaemolyticus levels. More accurate determination of these effects and the temporal and spatial variability of these parameters may further improve the accuracy of prediction models. To illustrate the utility of remotely sensed data as a basis for risk management, predictions based on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration V. parahaemolyticus risk assessment model were integrated with remotely sensed sea surface temperature data to display graphically variations in V. parahaemolyticus density in oysters associated with spatial variations in water temperature. We believe images such as these could be posted in near real time, and that the availability of such information in a user-friendly format could be the basis for timely and informed risk management decisions.

Eocene sea temperatures for the mid-latitude southwest Pacific from Mg/Ca ratios in planktonic and benthic foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creech, John B.; Baker, Joel A.; Hollis, Christopher J.; Morgans, Hugh E. G.; Smith, Euan G. C.

2010-11-01

We have used laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) to measure elemental (Mg/Ca, Al/Ca, Mn/Ca, Zn/Ca, Sr/Ca, and Ba/Ca) ratios of 13 species of variably preserved early to middle Eocene planktonic and benthic foraminifera from New Zealand. The foraminifera were obtained from Ashley Mudstone, mid-Waipara River, South Island, which was deposited at bathyal depth ( ca. 1000 m) on the northern margin of the east-facing Canterbury Basin at a paleo-latitude of ca. 55°S. LA-ICP-MS data yield trace element depth profiles through foraminifera test walls that can be used to identify and exclude zones of surficial contamination and infilling material resulting from diagenetic coatings, mineralisation and detrital sediment. Screened Mg/Ca ratios from 5 species of foraminifera are used to calculate sea temperatures from late Early to early Middle Eocene ( ca. 51 to 46.5 Ma), a time interval that spans the termination of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). During this time, sea surface temperatures (SST) varied from 30 to 24 °C, and bottom water temperatures (BWT) from 21 to 14 °C. Comparison of Mg/Ca sea temperatures with published δ 18O and TEX 86 temperature data from the same samples (Hollis et al., 2009) shows close correspondence, indicating that LA-ICP-MS can provide reliable Mg/Ca sea temperatures even where foraminiferal test preservation is variable. Agreement between the three proxies also implies that Mg/Ca-temperature calibrations for modern planktonic and benthic foraminifera can generally be applied to Eocene species, although some species (e.g., V. marshalli) show significant calibration differences. The Mg/Ca ratio of the Eocene ocean is constrained by our data to be 35-50% lower than the modern ocean depending on which TEX 86 - temperature calibration (Kim et al., 2008; Liu et al., 2009) - is used to compare with the Mg/Ca sea temperatures. Sea temperatures derived from δ 18O analysis of foraminifera from Waipara show amplified variability relative to the Mg/Ca and TEX 86 proxies. This amplified variability is probably a diagenetic effect although it is possible that this Eocene δ 18O record contains an ice volume component — the amplification signalling that temperature changes may have been accompanied by growth and collapse of ephemeral polar ice sheets on timescales of ca. 0.5 Myr.

Variability of Antarctic Sea Ice 1979-1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Comiso, Josefino C.; Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Gloersen, Per; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The principal characteristics of the variability of Antarctic sea ice cover as previously described from satellite passive-microwave observations are also evident in a systematically-calibrated and analyzed data set for 20.2 years (1979-1998). The total Antarctic sea ice extent (concentration > 15 %) increased by 13,440 +/- 4180 sq km/year (+1.18 +/- 0.37%/decade). The area of sea ice within the extent boundary increased by 16,960 +/- 3,840 sq km/year (+1.96 +/- 0.44%/decade). Regionally, the trends in extent are positive in the Weddell Sea (1.5 +/- 0.9%/decade), Pacific Ocean (2.4 +/- 1.4%/decade), and Ross (6.9 +/- 1.1 %/decade) sectors, slightly negative in the Indian Ocean (-1.5 +/- 1.8%/decade, and strongly negative in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector (-9.5 +/- 1.5%/decade). For the entire ice pack, small ice increases occur in all seasons with the largest increase during autumn. On a regional basis, the trends differ season to season. During summer and fall, the trends are positive or near zero in all sectors except the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector. During winter and spring, the trends are negative or near zero in all sectors except the Ross Sea, which has positive trends in all seasons. Components of interannual variability with periods of about 3 to 5 years are regionally large, but tend to counterbalance each other in the total ice pack. The interannual variability of the annual mean sea-ice extent is only 1.6% overall, compared to 5% to 9% in each of five regional sectors. Analysis of the relation between regional sea ice extents and spatially-averaged surface temperatures over the ice pack gives an overall sensitivity between winter ice cover and temperature of -0.7% change in sea ice extent per K. For summer, some regional ice extents vary positively with temperature and others negatively. The observed increase in Antarctic sea ice cover is counter to the observed decreases in the Arctic. It is also qualitatively consistent with the counterintuitive prediction of a global atmospheric-ocean model of increasing sea ice around Antarctica with climate warming due to the stabilizing effects of increased snowfall on the Southern Ocean.

Ice Core Records of West Greenland Melt and Climate Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graeter, K. A.; Osterberg, E. C.; Ferris, D. G.; Hawley, R. L.; Marshall, H. P.; Lewis, G.; Meehan, T.; McCarthy, F.; Overly, T.; Birkel, S. D.

2018-04-01

Remote sensing observations and climate models indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the late 1990s, mostly due to enhanced surface melting from rising summer temperatures. However, in situ observational records of GrIS melt rates over recent decades are rare. Here we develop a record of frozen meltwater in the west GrIS percolation zone preserved in seven firn cores. Quantifying ice layer distribution as a melt feature percentage (MFP), we find significant increases in MFP in the southernmost five cores over the past 50 years to unprecedented modern levels (since 1550 CE). Annual to decadal changes in summer temperatures and MFP are closely tied to changes in Greenland summer blocking activity and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures since 1870. However, summer warming of 1.2°C since 1870-1900, in addition to warming attributable to recent sea surface temperature and blocking variability, is a critical driver of high modern MFP levels.

On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dawei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.

2017-04-01

This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979.

Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations.

PubMed

McCarthy, Gerard D; Haigh, Ivan D; Hirschi, Joël J-M; Grist, Jeremy P; Smeed, David A

2015-05-28

Decadal variability is a notable feature of the Atlantic Ocean and the climate of the regions it influences. Prominently, this is manifested in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in sea surface temperatures. Positive (negative) phases of the AMO coincide with warmer (colder) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The AMO is linked with decadal climate fluctuations, such as Indian and Sahel rainfall, European summer precipitation, Atlantic hurricanes and variations in global temperatures. It is widely believed that ocean circulation drives the phase changes of the AMO by controlling ocean heat content. However, there are no direct observations of ocean circulation of sufficient length to support this, leading to questions about whether the AMO is controlled from another source. Here we provide observational evidence of the widely hypothesized link between ocean circulation and the AMO. We take a new approach, using sea level along the east coast of the United States to estimate ocean circulation on decadal timescales. We show that ocean circulation responds to the first mode of Atlantic atmospheric forcing, the North Atlantic Oscillation, through circulation changes between the subtropical and subpolar gyres--the intergyre region. These circulation changes affect the decadal evolution of North Atlantic heat content and, consequently, the phases of the AMO. The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures, but in the coupled system we describe, there are compensating effects. In this case, the negative AMO is associated with a continued acceleration of sea-level rise along the northeast coast of the United States.

Observing the seasonal cycle of the upper ocean in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, with autonomous profiling floats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porter, D. F.; Springer, S. R.; Padman, L.; Fricker, H. A.; Bell, R. E.

2017-12-01

The upper layers of the Southern Ocean where it meets the Antarctic ice sheet undergoes a large seasonal cycle controlled by surface radiation and by freshwater fluxes, both of which are strongly influenced by sea ice. In regions where seasonal sea ice and icebergs limit use of ice-tethered profilers and conventional moorings, autonomous profiling floats can sample the upper ocean. The deployment of seven Apex floats (by sea) and six ALAMO floats (by air) provides unique upper ocean hydrographic data in the Ross Sea close to the Ross Ice Shelf front. A novel choice of mission parameters - setting parking depth deeper than the seabed - limits their drift, allowing us to deploy the floats close to the ice shelf front, while sea ice avoidance algorithms allow the floats to to sample through winter under sea ice. Hydrographic profiles show the detailed development of the seasonal mixed layer close to the Ross front, and interannual variability of the seasonal mixed layer and deeper water masses on the central Ross Sea continental shelf. After the sea ice breakup in spring, a warm and fresh surface mixed layer develops, further warming and deepening throughout the summer. The mixed layer deepens, with maximum temperatures exceeding 0ºC in mid-February. By March, the surface energy budget becomes negative and sea ice begins to form, creating a cold, saline and dense surface layer. Once these processes overcome the stable summer stratification, convection erodes the surface mixed layer, mixing some heat downwards to deeper layers. There is considerable interannual variability in the evolution and strength of the surface mixed layer: summers with shorter ice-free periods result in a cooler and shallower surface mixed layer, which accumulates less heat than the summers with longer ice-free periods. Early ice breakup occurred in all floats in 2016/17 summer, enhancing the absorbed solar flux leading to a warmer surface mixed layer. Together, these unique measurements from autonomous profilers provide insight into the hydrographic state of the Ross Sea at the start of the spring period of sea-ice breakup, and how ocean mixing and sea ice interact to initiate the summer open-water season.

The Impact of Air-Sea Interactions on the Representation of Tropical Precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirons, L. C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Woolnough, S. J.

2018-02-01

The impacts of air-sea interactions on the representation of tropical precipitation extremes are investigated using an atmosphere-ocean-mixed-layer coupled model. The coupled model is compared to two atmosphere-only simulations driven by the coupled-model sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): one with 31 day running means (31 d), the other with a repeating mean annual cycle. This allows separation of the effects of interannual SST variability from those of coupled feedbacks on shorter timescales. Crucially, all simulations have a consistent mean state with very small SST biases against present-day climatology. 31d overestimates the frequency, intensity, and persistence of extreme tropical precipitation relative to the coupled model, likely due to excessive SST-forced precipitation variability. This implies that atmosphere-only attribution and time-slice experiments may overestimate the strength and duration of precipitation extremes. In the coupled model, air-sea feedbacks damp extreme precipitation, through negative local thermodynamic feedbacks between convection, surface fluxes, and SST.

Sea Surface Temperature Products and Research Associated with GHRSST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser-Weiss, Andrea K.; Minnett, Peter J.; Kaplan, Alexey; Wick, Gary A.; Castro, Sandra; Llewellyn-Jones, David; Merchant, Chris; LeBorgne, Pierre; Beggs, Helen; Donlon, Craig J.

2012-03-01

GHRSST serves its user community through the specification of operational Sea Surface Temperature (SST) products (Level 2, Level 3 and Level 4) based on international consensus. Providers of SST data from individual satellites create and deliver GHRSST-compliant near-real time products to a global GHRSST data assembly centre and a long-term stewardship facility. The GHRSST-compliant data include error estimates and supporting data for interpretation. Groups organised within GHRSST perform research on issues relevant to applying SST for air-sea exchange, for instance the Diurnal Variability Working Group (DVWG) analyses the evolution of the skin temperature. Other GHRSST groups concentrate on improving the SST estimate (Estimation and Retrievals Working Group EARWiG) and on improving the error characterization, (Satellite SST Validation Group, ST-VAL) and on improving the methods for SST analysis (Inter-Comparison Technical Advisory Group, IC-TAG). In this presentation we cover the data products and the scientific activities associated with GHRSST which might be relevant for investigating ocean-atmosphere interactions.

Antarctic Sea ice variations and seasonal air temperature relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weatherly, John W.; Walsh, John E.; Zwally, H. J.

1991-01-01

Data through 1987 are used to determine the regional and seasonal dependencies of recent trends of Antarctic temperature and sea ice. Lead-lag relationships involving regional sea ice and air temperature are systematically evaluated, with an eye toward the ice-temperature feedbacks that may influence climatic change. Over the 1958-1087 period the temperature trends are positive in all seasons. For the 15 years (l973-l987) for which ice data are available, the trends are predominantly positive only in winter and summer, and are most strongly positive over the Antarctic Peninsula. The spatially aggregated trend of temperature for this latter period is small but positive, while the corresponding trend of ice coverage is small but negative. Lag correlations between seasonal anomalies of the two variables are generally stronger with ice lagging the summer temperatures and with ice leading the winter temperatures. The implication is that summer temperatures predispose the near-surface waters to above-or below-normal ice coverage in the following fall and winter.

Variability at Multiple Scales: Using an Array of Current and Pressure Sensor Equipped Inverted Echo Sounders to Measure the Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-29

travel time between the seafloor and the sea surface; bottom pressure and temperature; and near-bottom horizontal currents hourly for up to 5 years...pressure and current sensors (CPIESs). CPIESs (Figure 1) are moored instruments that measure (1) the round-trip acoustic travel time between the...measurements of surface-to-bottom round-trip acoustic- travel time (’c), bottom pressure and temperature, and near-bottom horizontal currents

Variability at Multiple Scales: Using an Array of Current- and Pressure-Sensor Equipped Inverted Echo Sounders to Measure the Ocean

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-29

travel time between the seafloor and the sea surface; bottom pressure and temperature; and near-bottom horizontal currents hourly for up to 5 years...pressure and current sensors (CPIESs). CPIESs (Figure 1) are moored instruments that measure (1) the round-trip acoustic travel time between the...measurements of surface-to-bottom round-trip acoustic- travel time (’c), bottom pressure and temperature, and near-bottom horizontal currents

Heat Coma Temperature and Supercooling Point in Oceanic Sea Skaters (Heteroptera, Gerridae)

PubMed Central

Harada, Tetsuo

2018-01-01

Heat coma temperatures (HCTs) and super cooling points (SCPs) were examined for nearly 1000 oceanic sea skaters collected from in the Pacific and Indian Oceans representing four Halobates species; H. germanus, H. micans, H. sericeus, and H. sp. Analysis was conducted using the entire dataset because a negative correlation was seen between the HCTs and SCPs in all four species. A weak negative correlation was seen between HCTs and SCPs with a cross tolerance between warmer HCTs and colder SCPs. The weakness of the correlation may be due to the large size of the dataset and to the variability in ocean surface temperature. The negative correlation does however suggest that oceanic sea skaters may have some form of cross tolerance with a common physiological mechanism for their high and low temperature tolerances. PMID:29401693

Errors of five-day mean surface wind and temperature conditions due to inadequate sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Legler, David M.

1991-01-01

Surface meteorological reports of wind components, wind speed, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature from buoys located in equatorial and midlatitude regions are used in a simulation of random sampling to determine errors of the calculated means due to inadequate sampling. Subsampling the data with several different sample sizes leads to estimates of the accuracy of the subsampled means. The number N of random observations needed to compute mean winds with chosen accuracies of 0.5 (N sub 0.5) and 1.0 (N sub 1,0) m/s and mean air and sea surface temperatures with chosen accuracies of 0.1 (N sub 0.1) and 0.2 (N sub 0.2) C were calculated for each 5-day and 30-day period in the buoy datasets. Mean values of N for the various accuracies and datasets are given. A second-order polynomial relation is established between N and the variability of the data record. This relationship demonstrates that for the same accuracy, N increases as the variability of the data record increases. The relationship is also independent of the data source. Volunteer-observing ship data do not satisfy the recommended minimum number of observations for obtaining 0.5 m/s and 0.2 C accuracy for most locations. The effect of having remotely sensed data is discussed.

Physical associations to spring phytoplankton biomass interannual variability in the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Hyde, Kimberly J. W.; Rebuck, Nathan D.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Kahru, Mati; Fogarty, Michael J.

2015-02-01

The continental shelf of the Northeast United States and Nova Scotia is a productive marine ecosystem that supports a robust biomass of living marine resources. Understanding marine ecosystem sensitivity to changes in the physical environment can start with the first-order response of phytoplankton (i.e., chlorophyll a), the base of the marine food web. However, the primary physical associations to the interannual variability of chlorophyll a in these waters are unclear. Here we used ocean color satellite measurements and identified the local and remote physical associations to interannual variability of spring surface chlorophyll a from 1998 to 2013. The highest interannual variability of chlorophyll a occurred in March and April on the northern flank of Georges Bank, the western Gulf of Maine, and Nantucket Shoals. Complex interactions between winter wind speed over the Shelf, local winter water levels, and the relative proportions of Atlantic versus Labrador Sea source waters entering the Gulf of Maine from the previous summer/fall were associated with the variability of March/April chlorophyll a in Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine. Sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity were not robust correlates to spring chlorophyll a. Surface nitrate in the winter was not a robust correlate to chlorophyll a or the physical variables in every case suggesting that nitrate limitation may not be the primary constraint on the interannual variability of the spring bloom throughout all regions. Generalized linear models suggest that we can resolve 88% of March chlorophyll a interannual variability in Georges Bank using lagged physical data.

Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

PubMed Central

Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

1997-01-01

An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer. PMID:11607740

Relationship between clouds and sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arking, Albert; Ziskin, Daniel

1994-01-01

Analysis of four years of earth radiation budget, cloud, and sea surface temperature data confirms that cloud parameters change dramatically when and where sea surface temperatures increase above approximately 300K. These results are based upon monthly mean values within 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg grid points over the 'warm pool' region of the western tropical Pacific. The question of whether sea surface temperatures are influenced, in turn, by the radiative effects of these clouds (Ramanathan and Collins) is less clear. Such a feedback, if it exists, is weak. The reason why clouds might have so little influence, despite large changes in their longwave and shortwave radiative effects, might be that the sea surface responds to both the longwave heating and the shortwave cooling effects of clouds, and the two effects nearly cancel. There are strong correlations between the rate of change of sea surface temperature and any of the radiation budget parameters that are highly correlated with the incident solar flux-implying that season and latitude are the critical factors determining sea surface temperatures. With the seasonal or both seasonal and latitudinal variations removed, the rate of change of sea surface temperature shows no correlation with cloud-related parameters in the western tropical Pacific.

Subseasonal Reversal of East Asian Surface Temperature Variability in Winter 2014/15

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xinping; Li, Fei; He, Shengping; Wang, Huijun

2018-06-01

Although there has been a considerable amount of research conducted on the East Asian winter-mean climate, subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability reversals in the early and late winter remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on the recent winter of 2014/15, in which warmer anomalies dominated in January and February but colder conditions prevailed in December. Moreover, Arctic sea-ice cover (ASIC) in September-October 2014 was lower than normal, and warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies occurred in the Niño4 region in winter, together with a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO|+) phase. Using observational data and CMIP5 historical simulations, we investigated the PDO|+ phase modulation upon the winter warm Niño4 phase (autumn ASIC reduction) influence on the subseasonal SAT variability of East Asian winter. The results show that, under a PDO|+ phase modulation, warm Niño4 SST anomalies are associated with a subseasonal delay of tropical surface heating and subsequent Hadley cell and Ferrel cell intensification in January-February, linking the tropical and midlatitude regions. Consistently, the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significantly decelerated in January-February and hence promotes the warm anomalies over East Asia. Under the PDO|+ phase, the decrease in ASIC is related to cold SST anomalies in the western North Pacific, which increase the meridional temperature gradient and generate an accelerated and westward-shifted EAJS in December. The westward extension of the EAJS is responsible for the eastward-propagating Rossby waves triggered by declining ASIC and thereby favors the connection between ASIC and cold conditions over East Asia.

Evolution of Western Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature between 1985 and 2005: a complementary study in situ, satellite and modelling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troupin, C.; Lenartz, F.; Sirjacobs, D.; Alvera-Azcárate, A.; Barth, A.; Ouberdous, M.; Beckers, J.-M.

2009-04-01

In order to evaluate the variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Western Mediterranean Sea between 1985 and 2005, an integrated approach combining geostatistical tools and modelling techniques has been set up. The objectives are: underline the capability of each tool to capture characteristic phenomena, compare and assess the quality of their outputs, infer an interannual trend from the results. Diva (Data Interpolating Variationnal Analysis, Brasseur et al. (1996) Deep-Sea Res.) was applied on a collection of in situ data gathered from various sources (World Ocean Database 2005, Hydrobase2, Coriolis and MedAtlas2), from which duplicates and suspect values were removed. This provided monthly gridded fields in the region of interest. Heterogeneous time data coverage was taken into account by computing and removing the annual trend, provided by Diva detrending tool. Heterogeneous correlation length was applied through an advection constraint. Statistical technique DINEOF (Data Interpolation with Empirical Orthogonal Functions, Alvera-Azc

Late-glacial to Holocene environmental changes and climate variability: evidence from Voldafjorden, western Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sejrup, H. P.; Haflidason, H.; Flatebø, T.; Klitgaard Kristensen, D.; Grøsfjeld, K.; Larsen, E.

2001-02-01

Sedimentological, micropalaeontological (benthic foraminifers and dinoflagellate cysts), stable isotope data and AMS 14C datings on cores and surface samples, in addition to acoustic data, have been obtained from Voldafjorden, western Norway. Based on these data the late glacial and Holocene sedimentological processes and variability in circulation and fjord environments are outlined. Glacial marine sedimentation prevailed in the Voldafjorden between 11.0 kyr and 9.2 kyr BP (radiocarbon years). In the later part of the Allerød period, and for the rest of the Holocene, there was deposition of fine-grained normal marine sediments in the fjord basin. Turbidite layers, recorded in core material and on acoustic profiles, dated to ca. 2.1, 6.9-7.6, ca. 9.6 and ca. 11.0 kyr BP, interrupted the marine sedimentation. The event dated to between 6.9 and 7.6 kyr BP probably corresponds to a tsunami resulting from large-scale sliding on the continental margin off Norway (the Storegga Tsunami).During the later part of the Allerød period, Voldafjorden had a strongly stratified water column with cold bottom water and warm surface water, reaching interglacial temperatures during the summer seasons. During the Younger Dryas cold event there was a return to arctic sea-surface summer temperatures, possibly with year-round sea-ice cover, the entire benthic fauna being composed of arctic species. The first strong Holocene warming, observed simultaneously in bottom and sea-surface temperature proxies, occurred at ca. 10.1 kyr BP. Bottom water proxies indicate two cold periods, possibly with 2°C lowering of temperatures, at ca. 10.0 (PBO 1) and at 9.8 kyr BP (PBO 2). These events may both result from catastrophic outbursts of Baltic glacial lake water. The remainder of the Holocene experienced variability in basin water temperature, indicated by oxygen isotope measurements with an amplitude of ca. 2°C, with cooler periods at ca. 8.4-9.0, 5.6, 5.2, 4.6, 4.2, 3.5, 2.2, 1.2 and 0.4-0.8 kyr BP. Changes in the fjord hydrology through the past 11.3 kyr show a close correspondence, both in amplitude and timing of events, recorded in cores from the Norwegian Sea region and the North Atlantic. These data suggest a close relationship between fjord environments and variability in large-scale oceanic circulation.

Spatio-temporal variability of the North Sea cod recruitment in relation to temperature and zooplankton.

PubMed

Nicolas, Delphine; Rochette, Sébastien; Llope, Marcos; Licandro, Priscilla

2014-01-01

The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of the North Sea Cod Recruitment in Relation to Temperature and Zooplankton

PubMed Central

Nicolas, Delphine; Rochette, Sébastien; Llope, Marcos; Licandro, Priscilla

2014-01-01

The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability. PMID:24551103

Deep and surface circulation in the Northwest Indian Ocean from Argo, surface drifter, and in situ profiling current observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stryker, S. A.; Dimarco, S. F.; Stoessel, M. M.; Wang, Z.

2010-12-01

The northwest Indian Ocean is a region of complex circulation and atmospheric influence. The Persian (Arabian) Gulf and Red Sea contribute toward the complexity of the region. This study encompasses the surface and deep circulation in the region ranging from 0°N-35°N and 40°E-80°E from January 2002-December 2009. Emphasis is in the Persian Gulf, Oman Sea and Arabian Sea (roughly from 21°N-26°N and 56°E-63°E) using a variety of in situ and observation data sets. While there is a lot known about the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea, little is known about the Oman Sea. Circulation in the northwest Indian Ocean is largely influenced by seasonal monsoon winds. From the winter monsoon to the summer monsoon, current direction reverses. Marginal sea inflow and outflow are also seasonally variable, which greatly impacts the physical water mass properties in the region. In situ and observation data sets include data from Argo floats (US GODAE), surface drifters (AOML) and an observation system consisting of 4 independent moorings and a cabled ocean observatory in the Oman Sea. The observing system in the Oman Sea was installed by Lighthouse R & D Enterprises, Inc. beginning in 2005, and measures current, temperature, conductivity, pressure, dissolved oxygen and turbidity, using the Aanderaa Recording Doppler Current Profiler (RDCP) 600 and the Aanderaa Recording Current Meter (RCM) 11. The cabled ocean observatory measures dissolved oxygen, temperature and salinity between 65 m and 1000 m and reports in real-time. Argo floats in the region have a parking depth range from 500 m to 2000 m. At 1000 m depth, 98% of the velocity magnitudes range from less than 1 cm/s to 20 cm/s. The Somali Current and Northeast/Southwest Monsoon Currents are present, reversing from summer to winter. At 2000 m depth, the Somali and Monsoon Currents are still present but have smaller velocities with 98% ranging from less than 1 cm/s to 13 cm/s. At both 1000 m and 2000 m, larger velocities occur along the equator and coastal regions. A qualitative analysis of sea surface temperature (MODIS) and sea surface height (CCAR) shows that changes in Argo temperature and salinity data are associated with seasonal temperature and changes in evaporation as well as coastal upwelling. Eddy circulation is seen in the subsurface in the Oman Sea and Arabian Sea west of the Murray Ridge in addition to the seasonal influence of the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.

ICOADS: A Foundational Database with a new Release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angel, W.; Freeman, E.; Woodruff, S. D.; Worley, S. J.; Brohan, P.; Dumenil-Gates, L.; Kent, E. C.; Smith, S. R.

2016-02-01

The International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) offers surface marine data spanning the past three centuries and is the world's largest collection of marine surface in situ observations with approximately 300 million unique records from 1662 to the present in a common International Maritime Meteorological Archive (IMMA) format. Simple gridded monthly summary products (including netCDF) for 2° latitude x 2° longitude boxes back to 1800 and 1° x 1° boxes since 1960 are computed for each month. ICOADS observations made available in the IMMA format are taken primarily from ships (merchant, ocean research, fishing, navy, etc.) and moored and drifting buoys. Each report contains individual observations of meteorological and oceanographic variables, such as sea surface and air temperatures, winds, pressure, humidity, wet bulb, dew point, ocean waves and cloudiness. A monthly summary for an area box includes ten statistics (e.g. mean, median, standard deviation, etc.) for 22 observed and computed variables (e.g. sea surface and air temperature, wind, pressure, humidity, cloudiness, etc.). ICOADS is the most complete and heterogeneous collection of surface marine data in existence. A major new historical update, Release 3.0 (R3.0), now in production (with availability anticipated in mid-2016) will contain a variety of important updates. These updates will include unique IDs (UIDs), new IMMA attachments, ICOADS Value-Added Database (IVAD), and numerous new or improved historical and contemporary data sources. UIDs are assigned to each individual marine report, which will greatly facilitate interaction between users and data developers, and affords record traceability. A new Near-Surface Oceanographic (Nocn) attachment has been developed to include oceanographic profile elements, such as sea surface salinity, sea surface temperatures, and their associated measurement depths. Additionally, IVAD allows a feedback mechanism of data adjustments which can be stored within each IMMA report. R3.0 includes near-surface ocean profile measurements from sources such as the World Ocean Database (WOD), Shipboard Automated Meteorological and Oceanographic System (SAMOS), as well as many others. An in-depth look at the improvements and the data inputs planned for R3.0 will be further discussed.

Sea surface temperature anomalies driven by oceanic local forcing in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silveira, Isabel Porto; Pezzi, Luciano Ponzi

2014-03-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly events in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) were investigated through wavelet analysis and numerical modeling. Wavelet analysis was applied to recognize the main spectral signals of SST anomaly events in the BMC and in the Drake Passage as a first attempt to link middle and high latitudes. The numerical modeling approach was used to clarify the local oceanic dynamics that drive these anomalies. Wavelet analysis pointed to the 8-12-year band as the most energetic band representing remote forcing between high to middle latitudes. Other frequencies observed in the BMC wavelet analysis indicate that part of its variability could also be forced by low-latitude events, such as El Niño. Numerical experiments carried out for the years of 1964 and 1992 (cold and warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases) revealed two distinct behaviors that produced negative and positive sea surface temperature anomalies on the BMC region. The first behavior is caused by northward cold flow, Río de la Plata runoff, and upwelling processes. The second behavior is driven by a southward excursion of the Brazil Current (BC) front, alterations in Río de la Plata discharge rates, and most likely by air-sea interactions. Both episodes are characterized by uncoupled behavior between the surface and deeper layers.

Deriving a sea surface temperature record suitable for climate change research from the along-track scanning radiometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merchant, C. J.; Llewellyn-Jones, D.; Saunders, R. W.; Rayner, N. A.; Kent, E. C.; Old, C. P.; Berry, D.; Birks, A. R.; Blackmore, T.; Corlett, G. K.; Embury, O.; Jay, V. L.; Kennedy, J.; Mutlow, C. T.; Nightingale, T. J.; O'Carroll, A. G.; Pritchard, M. J.; Remedios, J. J.; Tett, S.

We describe the approach to be adopted for a major new initiative to derive a homogeneous record of sea surface temperature for 1991 2007 from the observations of the series of three along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). This initiative is called (A)RC: (Advanced) ATSR Re-analysis for Climate. The main objectives are to reduce regional biases in retrieved sea surface temperature (SST) to less than 0.1 K for all global oceans, while creating a very homogenous record that is stable in time to within 0.05 K decade-1, with maximum independence of the record from existing analyses of SST used in climate change research. If these stringent targets are achieved, this record will enable significantly improved estimates of surface temperature trends and variability of sufficient quality to advance questions of climate change attribution, climate sensitivity and historical reconstruction of surface temperature changes. The approach includes development of new, consistent estimators for SST for each of the ATSRs, and detailed analysis of overlap periods. Novel aspects of the approach include generation of multiple versions of the record using alternative channel sets and cloud detection techniques, to assess for the first time the effect of such choices. There will be extensive effort in quality control, validation and analysis of the impact on climate SST data sets. Evidence for the plausibility of the 0.1 K target for systematic error is reviewed, as is the need for alternative cloud screening methods in this context.

Subtropical Gyre Variability Observed by Ocean Color Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Charles R.; Signorini, Sergio R.; Christian, James R.

2002-01-01

The subtropical gyres of the world are extensive, coherent regions that occupy about 40% of the surface of the earth. Once thought to be homogeneous and static habitats, there is increasing evidence that mid-latitude gyres exhibit substantial physical and biological variability on a variety of time scales. While biological productivity within these oligotrophic regions may be relatively small, their immense size makes their total contribution significant. Global distributions of dynamic height derived from satellite altimeter data, and chlorophyll concentration derived from satellite ocean color data, show that the dynamic center of the gyres, the region of maximum dynamic height where the thermocline is deepest, does not coincide with the region of minimum chlorophyll concentration. The physical and biological processes by which this distribution of ocean properties is maintained, and the spatial and temporal scales of variability associated with these processes, are analyzed using global surface chlorophyll-a concentrations, sea surface height, sea surface temperature and surface winds from operational satellite and meteorological sources, and hydrographic data from climatologies and individual surveys. Seasonal and interannual variability in the areal extent of the subtropical gyres are examined using 8 months (November 1996 - June 1997) of OCTS and nearly 5 years (September 1997 - June 02) of SeaWiFS ocean color data and are interpreted in the context of climate variability and measured changes in other ocean properties (i.e., wind forcing, surface currents, Ekman pumping, and vertical mixing). The North Pacific and North Atlantic gyres are observed to be shrinking over this period, while the South Pacific, South Atlantic, and South Indian Ocean gyres appear to be expanding.

Determination of Interannual to Decadal Changes in Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Busalacchi, Antonioa J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the +/- 25% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to +/- 2 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. Although the overall ice mass balance and seasonal and inter-annual variations can be derived from time-series of ice surface elevations from satellite altimetry, satellite radar altimeters have been limited in spatial coverage and elevation accuracy. Nevertheless, new data analysis shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. In addition, observed seasonal and interannual variations in elevation demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. From 2001, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86 deg latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets. During 3 to 5 years of ICESat-1 operation, an estimate of the overall ice sheet mass balance and sea level contribution will be obtained. The importance of continued ice monitoring after the first ICESat is illustrated by the variability in the area of Greenland surface melt observed over 17-years and its correlation with temperature. In addition, measurement of ice sheet changes, along with measurements of sea level change by a series of ocean altimeters, should enable direct detection of ice level and global sea level correlations.

Insights on multivariate updates of physical and biogeochemical ocean variables using an Ensemble Kalman Filter and an idealized model of upwelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Liuqian; Fennel, Katja; Bertino, Laurent; Gharamti, Mohamad El; Thompson, Keith R.

2018-06-01

Effective data assimilation methods for incorporating observations into marine biogeochemical models are required to improve hindcasts, nowcasts and forecasts of the ocean's biogeochemical state. Recent assimilation efforts have shown that updating model physics alone can degrade biogeochemical fields while only updating biogeochemical variables may not improve a model's predictive skill when the physical fields are inaccurate. Here we systematically investigate whether multivariate updates of physical and biogeochemical model states are superior to only updating either physical or biogeochemical variables. We conducted a series of twin experiments in an idealized ocean channel that experiences wind-driven upwelling. The forecast model was forced with biased wind stress and perturbed biogeochemical model parameters compared to the model run representing the "truth". Taking advantage of the multivariate nature of the deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter (DEnKF), we assimilated different combinations of synthetic physical (sea surface height, sea surface temperature and temperature profiles) and biogeochemical (surface chlorophyll and nitrate profiles) observations. We show that when biogeochemical and physical properties are highly correlated (e.g., thermocline and nutricline), multivariate updates of both are essential for improving model skill and can be accomplished by assimilating either physical (e.g., temperature profiles) or biogeochemical (e.g., nutrient profiles) observations. In our idealized domain, the improvement is largely due to a better representation of nutrient upwelling, which results in a more accurate nutrient input into the euphotic zone. In contrast, assimilating surface chlorophyll improves the model state only slightly, because surface chlorophyll contains little information about the vertical density structure. We also show that a degradation of the correlation between observed subsurface temperature and nutrient fields, which has been an issue in several previous assimilation studies, can be reduced by multivariate updates of physical and biogeochemical fields.

Observations of sound-speed fluctuations in the western Philippine Sea in the spring of 2009.

PubMed

Colosi, John A; Van Uffelen, Lora J; Cornuelle, Bruce D; Dzieciuch, Matthew A; Worcester, Peter F; Dushaw, Brian D; Ramp, Steven R

2013-10-01

As an aid to understanding long-range acoustic propagation in the Philippine Sea, statistical and phenomenological descriptions of sound-speed variations were developed. Two moorings of oceanographic sensors located in the western Philippine Sea in the spring of 2009 were used to track constant potential-density surfaces (isopycnals) and constant potential-temperature surfaces (isotherms) in the depth range 120-2000 m. The vertical displacements of these surfaces are used to estimate sound-speed fluctuations from internal waves, while temperature/salinity variability along isopycnals are used to estimate sound-speed fluctuations from intrusive structure often termed spice. Frequency spectra and vertical covariance functions are used to describe the space-time scales of the displacements and spiciness. Internal-wave contributions from diurnal and semi-diurnal internal tides and the diffuse internal-wave field [related to the Garrett-Munk (GM) spectrum] are found to dominate the sound-speed variability. Spice fluctuations are weak in comparison. The internal wave and spice frequency spectra have similar form in the upper ocean but are markedly different below 170-m depth. Diffuse internal-wave mode spectra show a form similar to the GM model, while internal-tide mode spectra scale as mode number to the minus two power. Spice decorrelates rapidly with depth, with a typical correlation scale of tens of meters.

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Viewed from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1998-01-01

Over the past 20 years, satellite passive-microwave radiometry has provided a marvelous means for obtaining information about the variability of the Arctic sea ice cover and particularly about sea ice concentrations (% areal coverages) and from them ice extents and the lengths of the sea ice season. This ability derives from the sharp contrast between the microwave emissions of sea ice versus liquid water and allows routine monitoring of the vast Arctic sea ice cover, which typically varies in extent from a minimum of about 8,000,000 sq km in September to a maximum of about 15,000,000 sq km in March, the latter value being over 1.5 times the area of either the United States or Canada. The vast Arctic ice cover has many impacts, including hindering heat, mass, and y momentum exchanges between the oceans and the atmosphere, reducing the amount of solar radiation absorbed at the Earth's surface, affecting freshwater transports and ocean circulation, and serving as a vital surface for many species of polar animals. These direct impacts also lead to indirect impacts, including effects on local and perhaps global atmospheric temperatures, effects that are being examined in general circulation modeling studies, where preliminary results indicate that changes on the order of a few percent sea ice concentration can lead to temperature changes of 1 K or greater even in local areas outside of the sea ice region. Satellite passive-microwave data for November 1978 through December 1996 reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities in both the ice extents and the lengths of the sea ice season, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 km(2), while individual regions showed much greater percentage variations, e.g., with the Greenland Sea experiencing a range of 740,000 - 1,1110,000 km(2) in its yearly maximum ice coverage. Although variations from year to year and region to region are large, overall the Arctic ice extents did show a statistically significant, 2.8%/ decade negative trend over the 18.2-year period. Ice season lengths, which vary from only a few weeks near the ice margins to the full year in the large region of perennial ice coverage, also experienced interannual variability, and mapping their trends allows detailed geographic information on exactly where the ice season lengthened and where it shortened. Over the 18 years, ice season lengthening occurred predominantly in the western hemisphere and was strongest in the western Labrador Sea, while ice season shortening occurred predominantly in the eastern hemisphere and was strongest in the eastern Barents Sea. Much information about other important Arctic sea ice variables has also been obtained from satellite data, including information about melt ponding, temperature, snow cover, and ice velocities. For instance, maps of ice velocities have now been made from satellite scatterometry data, including information about melt ponding, temperature, snow cover, and ice velocities.

Vegetation Interaction Enhances Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Ning; Neelin, J. David; Lau, William K.-M.

1999-01-01

The role of naturally varying vegetation in influencing the climate variability in the Sahel is explored in a coupled atmosphere-land-vegetation model. The Sahel rainfall variability is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the oceans. Land-surface feedback is found to increase this variability both on interannual and interdecadal time scales. Interactive vegetation enhances the interdecadal variation significantly, but can reduce year to year variability due to a phase lag introduced by the relatively slow vegetation adjustment time. Variations in vegetation accompany the changes in rainfall, in particular, the multi-decadal drying trend from the 1950s to the 80s.

The Asian-Bering-North American teleconnection: seasonality, maintenance, and climate impact on North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Bin; Lin, H.; Wu, Z. W.; Merryfield, W. J.

2018-03-01

The Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) teleconnection index is constructed from the normalized 500-hPa geopotential field by excluding the Pacific-North American pattern contribution. The ABNA pattern features a zonally elongated wavetrain originating from North Asia and flowing downstream across Bering Sea and Strait towards North America. The large-scale teleconnection is a year-round phenomenon that displays strong seasonality with the peak variability in winter. North American surface temperature and temperature extremes, including warm days and nights as well as cold days and nights, are significantly controlled by this teleconnection. The ABNA pattern has an equivalent barotropic structure in the troposphere and is supported by synoptic-scale eddy forcing in the upper troposphere. Its associated sea surface temperature anomalies exhibit a horseshoe-shaped structure in the North Pacific, most prominent in winter, which is driven by atmospheric circulation anomalies. The snow cover anomalies over the West Siberian plain and Central Siberian Plateau in autumn and spring and over southern Siberia in winter may act as a forcing influence on the ABNA pattern. The snow forcing influence in winter and spring can be traced back to the preceding season, which provides a predictability source for this teleconnection and for North American temperature variability. The ABNA associated energy budget is dominated by surface longwave radiation anomalies year-round, with the temperature anomalies supported by anomalous downward longwave radiation and damped by upward longwave radiation at the surface.

Sea surface temperature measurements with AIRS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, H.

2003-01-01

The comparison of global sea surface skin temperature derived from cloud-free AIRS super window channel at 2616 cm-1 (sst2616) with the Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature for September 2002 shows surprisingly small standard deviation of 0.44K.

Increasing sea surface temperature and range shifts of intertidal gastropods along the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubal, Marcos; Veiga, Puri; Cacabelos, Eva; Moreira, Juan; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel

2013-03-01

There are well-documented changes in abundance and geographical range of intertidal invertebrates related to climate change at north Europe. However, the effect of sea surface warming on intertidal invertebrates has been poorly studied at lower latitudes. Here we analyze potential changes in the abundance patterns and distribution range of rocky intertidal gastropods related to climate change along the Iberian Peninsula. To achieve this aim, the spatial distribution and range of sub-tropical, warm- and cold-water species of intertidal gastropods was explored by a fully hierarchical sampling design considering four different spatial scales, i.e. from region (100 s of km apart) to quadrats (ms apart). Variability on their patterns of abundance was explored by analysis of variance, changes on their distribution ranges were detected by comparing with previous records and their relationship with sea water temperature was explored by rank correlation analyses. Mean values of sea surface temperature along the Iberian coast, between 1949 and 2010, were obtained from in situ data compiled for three different grid squares: south Portugal, north Portugal, and Galicia. Lusitanian species did not show significant correlation with sea water temperature or changes on their distributional range or abundance, along the temperature gradient considered. The sub-tropical species Siphonaria pectinata has, however, increased its distribution range while boreal cold-water species showed the opposite pattern. The latter was more evident for Littorina littorea that was almost absent from the studied rocky shores of the Iberian Peninsula. Sub-tropical and boreal species showed significant but opposite correlation with sea water temperature. We hypothesized that the energetic cost of frequent exposures to sub-lethal temperatures might be responsible for these shifts. Therefore, intertidal gastropods at the Atlantic Iberian Peninsula coast are responding to the effect of global warming as it is happening at higher latitudes. However, the identity of the species showing changes in their range of distribution was different.

The response of the SSM/I to the marine environment. Part 2: A parameterization of the effect of the sea surface slope distribution on emission and reflection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petty, Grant W.; Katsaros, Kristina B.

1994-01-01

Based on a geometric optics model and the assumption of an isotropic Gaussian surface slope distribution, the component of ocean surface microwave emissivity variation due to large-scale surface roughness is parameterized for the frequencies and approximate viewing angle of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager. Independent geophysical variables in the parameterization are the effective (microwave frequency dependent) slope variance and the sea surface temperature. Using the same physical model, the change in the effective zenith angle of reflected sky radiation arising from large-scale roughness is also parameterized. Independent geophysical variables in this parameterization are the effective slope variance and the atmospheric optical depth at the frequency in question. Both of the above model-based parameterizations are intended for use in conjunction with empirical parameterizations relating effective slope variance and foam coverage to near-surface wind speed. These empirical parameterizations are the subject of a separate paper.

Extended-Range Prediction with Low-Dimensional, Stochastic-Dynamic Models: A Data-driven Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

characterization of extratropical storms and extremes and link these to LFV modes. Mingfang Ting, Yochanan Kushnir, Andrew W. Robertson...simulating and predicting a wide range of climate phenomena including ENSO, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), storm track variability...into empirical prediction models. Use observations to improve low-order dynamical MJO models. Adam Sobel, Daehyun Kim. Extratropical variability

Assessing Air-Sea Interaction in the Evolving NASA GEOS Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayson, Carol Anne; Roberts, J. Brent

2015-01-01

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Assessing air-sea interaction in the evolving NASA GEOS model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayson, C. A.; Roberts, J. B.

2014-12-01

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Li, J. Y.

2001-01-01

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

An Evaluation of Sea Surface Temperature as Measured by the Nimbus 1 High Resolution Infrared Radiometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allison, Lewis J.; Kennedy, James S.

1967-01-01

An analysis of Nimbus I HRIR data over various parts of the world indicated limited success in deriving sea surface temperatures to within 3 to 6 K of aircraft radiation measurements (8- 13 microns) and synoptic-climatological ship sea surface temperature data. The areas studied included the east, west and Gulf coasts of the United States, West Greenland, Nova Scotia, southern Japan, the eastern Mediterranean Sea, Caspian Sea, Persian Gulf, and the Indian Ocean. At night, thin clouds which may fill the radiometer's field of view make it difficult to interpret the absolute values of derived sea surface temperature. During the daytime, the HRIR data is unusable for oceanographic temperature analysis because the contamination by reflected solar radiation mixes with the emitted radiation. Future satellite instrumentation, consisting of a HFUR radiometer (10-11 microns) when used in conjunction with television. data, will delineate cloud free ocean areas and permit the daily derivation of sea surface temperatures from approximately 10 to 30 Percent of the world's oceanic regions.

Rapid changes in the seasonal sea level cycle along the US Gulf coast in the early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Calafat, F. M.; Luther, M. E.

2013-12-01

The seasonal cycle is an energetic component in the sea level spectrum and dominates the intra-annual sea level variability outside the semidiurnal and diurnal tidal bands in most regions. Changes in the annual or semi-annual amplitudes or phase lags have an immediate impact on marine coastal systems. Increases in the amplitudes or phase shifts towards the storm surge season may for instance exacerbate the risk of coastal flooding and/or beach erosion, and the ecological health of estuarine systems is also coupled to the seasonal sea level cycle. Here, we investigate the temporal variability of the seasonal harmonics along the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coastline using records from 13 tide gauges providing at least 30 years of data in total and at least 15 years for the period after 1990. The longest records go back to the early 20th century. Running Fourier analysis (with a window length of 5-years) is used to extract the seasonal harmonics from the observations. The resulting time series show a considerable decadal variability and no longer-term changes are found in the phase lags and the semi-annual amplitude. The amplitude of the dominating annual cycle in contrast shows a tendency towards higher values since the turn of the century at tide gauges in the eastern part of the GOM. This increase of up to more than 25% is found to be significant at the 90% confidence level for most tide gauges along the coastline of West Florida and at the 75% confidence level for virtually all stations in the eastern GOM (from Key West to Dauphin Island). Monthly mean sea level sub-series show that the changes are partly due to smaller values in the cold season but mostly a result of higher values in the warm season, i.e. sea levels tend to be higher during the hurricane season. We use information on the steric sea level component, sea surface and air temperature, wind forcing, precipitation, and sea level pressure to explain the mechanisms driving the decadal variability in the annual amplitude and the rapid increase over the last decade in the eastern GOM. We have developed several multiple regression models (MRM) with a varying number of independent predictors to reconstruct the temporal changes back to the mid and early 20th century (depending on data availability of the predictors). The models are able to explain up to 85% of the observed variability (70% on average across sites) and major parts of the rapid increase in the early 21st century. Multicollinearity between the predictors makes it difficult to quantify the contribution of individual parameters to the increase but sensitivity tests outline that changes in the annual cycle of the air surface temperature (which in turn directly propagates into the sea surface temperature) played a dominant role. The MRMs allow us to reconstruct the seasonal sea level cycle back to the early 20th century at all tide gauge sites and will be used in a follow-up study in combination with regional climate model output to assess potential future changes.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.

2017-12-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

PubMed Central

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-01-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO–WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind–evaporation–SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST–sea level pressure–cloud–longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability. PMID:28685765

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-07-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Zonal wind indices to reconstruct United States winter precipitation during El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnham, D. J.; Steinschneider, S.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

The highly discussed 2015/16 El Niño event, which many likened to the similarly strong 1997/98 El Niño event, led to precipitation impacts over the continental United States (CONUS) inconsistent with general expectations given past events and model-based forecasts. This presents a challenge for regional water managers and others who use seasonal precipitation forecasts who previously viewed El Niño events as times of enhanced confidence in seasonal water availability and flood risk forecasts. It is therefore useful to understand the extent to which wintertime CONUS precipitation during El Niño events can be explained by seasonal sea surface temperature heating patterns and the extent to which the precipitation is a product of natural variability. In this work, we define two seasonal indices based on the zonal wind field spanning from the eastern Pacific to the western Atlantic over CONUS that can explain El Niño precipitation variation spatially throughout CONUS over 11 historic El Niño events from 1950 to 2016. The indices reconstruct El Niño event wintertime (Jan-Mar) gridded precipitation over CONUS through cross-validated regression much better than the traditional ENSO sea surface temperature indices or other known modes of variability. Lastly, we show strong relationships between sea surface temperature patterns and the phases of the zonal wind indices, which in turn suggests that some of the disparate CONUS precipitation during El Niño events can be explained by different heating patterns. The primary contribution of this work is the identification of intermediate variables (in the form of zonal wind indices) that can facilitate further studies into the distinct hydroclimatic response to specific El Niño events.

Tropical North Atlantic Coral-Based Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity Reconstructions From the Little Ice Age and Early Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saenger, C.; Cohen, A.; Oppo, D.; Hubbard, D.

2006-12-01

Understanding the magnitude and spatial extent of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) cooling during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 A.D.; LIA) is important for elucidating low-latitude paleoclimate, but present estimates are poorly constrained. We used Sr/Ca and δ18O variability within the aragonitic skeleton of the coral genus Montastrea to reconstruct SST and sea surface salinity (SSS) during the LIA and early Holocene (EH) in the tropical Atlantic. Four seasonally-resolved coral Sr/Ca records from St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Bermuda indicate SST is highly correlated (r2 = 0.94) with modern Montastrea Sr/Ca and mean annual coral extension. A Sr/Ca -SST calibration that combines temperature and growth rate effects on coral Sr/Ca was applied to fossil St. Croix corals to reconstruct Caribbean climate during 5-10 year intervals of the LIA (440 ± 30 yBP) and EH (7200 ± 30; EH). Contrary to previous coral-based LIA proxy reconstructions, we find mean SST during the LIA was similar to today, but approximately 1.2°C cooler during the EH. Both periods exhibited higher amplitude seasonal variability indicating other SST estimates may be seasonally biased. Based on residual coral δ18O, we find the LIA and EH were saltier, which suggests previous cooling estimates of 1-3°C relative to today may be exaggerated by changes in seawater δ18O. Our results are consistent with a southerly migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during the LIA, but their corroboration requires longer, high-resolution proxy reconstructions that place our two brief multi-annual coral records from the LIA and EH, respectively, within the context of multi-decadal variability.

Net sea-air CO2 fluxes and modelled pCO2 in the southwestern subtropical Atlantic continental shelf during spring 2010 and summer 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Rosane Gonçalves; Garcia, Carlos Alberto Eiras; Tavano, Virginia Maria

2016-05-01

Sea-air CO2 fluxes over continental shelves vary substantially in time on both seasonal and sub-seasonal scales, driven primarily by variations in surface pCO2 due to several oceanic mechanisms. Furthermore, coastal zones have not been appropriately considered in global estimates of sea-air CO2 fluxes, despite their importance to ecology and to productivity. In this work, we aimed to improve our understanding of the role played by shelf waters in controlling sea-air CO2 fluxes by investigating the southwestern Atlantic Ocean (21-35°S) region, where physical, chemical and biological measurements were made on board the Brazilian R. V. Cruzeiro do Sul during late spring 2010 and early summer 2011. Features such as discharge from the La Plata River, intrusions of tropical waters on the outer shelf due to meandering and flow instabilities of the Brazil Current, and coastal upwelling in the Santa Marta Grande Cape and São Tomé Cape were detected by both in situ measurements and ocean colour and thermal satellite imagery. Overall, shelf waters in the study area were a source of CO2 to the atmosphere, with an average of 1.2 mmol CO2 m-2 day-1 for the late spring and 11.2 mmol CO2 m-2 day-1 for the early summer cruises. The spatial variability in ocean pCO2 was associated with surface ocean properties (temperature, salinity and chlorophyll-a concentration) in both the slope and shelf waters. Empirical algorithms for predicting temperature-normalized surface ocean pCO2 as a function of surface ocean properties were shown to perform well in both shelf and slope waters, except (a) within cyclonic eddies produced by baroclinic instability of the Brazil Current as detected by satellite SST imagery and (b) in coastal upwelling regions. In these regions, surface ocean pCO2 values were higher as a result of upwelled CO2-enriched subsurface waters. Finally, a pCO2 algorithm based on both sea surface temperature and surface chlorophyll-a was developed that enabled the spatial variability of surface ocean pCO2 to be mapped from satellite data in the southern region.

A cross-assessment of CCI-ECVs and RCSM simulations over the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Errico, Miriam; Planton, Serge; Nabat, Pierre

2017-04-01

A first objective of this study, conducted in the framework of the Climate Modelling Users Group (CMUG), one of the projects of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) program, is a cross-assessment of simulations of a Med-CORDEX regional climate system model (CNRM-RCSM5) and a sub-set of atmosphere, marine and surface interrelated Satellite-Derived Essential Climate Variables (CCI-ECVs) (i.e. sea surface temperature, sea level, aerosols and soil moisture content) over the Mediterranean area. The consistency between the model and the CCI-ECVs is evaluated through the analysis of a climate specific event that can be observed with the CCI-ECVs, in atmospheric reanalysis and reproduced in the RCSM simulations. In this presentation we focus on the July 2006 heat wave that affected the western part of the Mediterranean continental and marine area. The application of a spectral nudging method using ERA-Interim reanalysis in our simulation allows to reproduce this event with a proper chronology. As a result we show that the consistency between the simulated model aerosol optical depth and the ECV products (being produced by the ESA Aerosol CCI project consortium) depends on the choice of the algorithm used to infer the variable from the satellite observations. In particular the heat wave main characteristics become consistent between the model and the satellite-derived observations for sea surface temperature, soil moisture and sea level. The link between the atmospheric circulation and the aerosols distribution is also investigated.

The role of horizontal exchanges on ventilation of the benthic boundary layer on the Black Sea shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shapiro, Georgy; Wobus, Fred

2010-05-01

The state of the benthic component of the shelf ecosystem is strongly influenced by availability of dissolved oxygen. The chemical structure of the Black Sea waters is largely determined by the location and the strength of the pycnocline. Due to similarity in the mechanisms of vertical exchanges the oxycline and the chemocline occur at the same depth intervals as the halocline and pycnocline (Özsoy and Ünlüata, 1997). As the data for dissolved oxygen on the shelf is relatively sparse we assume that much abundant data on physical parameters (temperature and salinity) can be used as proxy in determining the location of the oxycline and hence the spatial extent of near-bottom waters depleted in oxygen. When the waters of the benthic boundary layers below the pycnocline are ‘locked' i.e. unable to mix vertically with surface then the biological pump and supply of oxygen are suppressed. However, the locked water can, in principle, move ‘horizontally', predominantly along the constant density levels and get ventilated via isopycnal exchanges. The isopycnals in the Black Sea have generally a dome-like structure, so that the isopycnal movements across the shelf break can ventilate bottom shelf waters with water masses from upper parts of the water column in the deep sea. We use the intra- and inter-annual variations in the near-bottom temperature as indicators for variability of physical conditions in the benthic boundary layer on the shelf. The physical reason for this is that interannual variations in the near-bottom temperature are directly related with the volume of cold waters (Ivanov et al., 2000) which are formed on the shelf and then exported into the deep sea, so that variations in temperature may indicate changes in the intensity of horizontal exchanges. In this paper we identified areas on the Black Sea margin where bottom waters can not be mixed vertically (‘locked' waters) during the winter months and locations to which the locked waters can move ‘horizontally'. The potential energy approach was used to identify the spatial and temporal variability of the areas and volumes occupied by the locked waters. This approach allows to assess a relative strength of the ability of locked waters to mix vertically with oxygen rich surface waters as compared to ‘horizontal' exchanges with the deep sea along isopycnic surfaces. Analysis of interannual variability of temperature showed that the period 1965-1983 was a warm period when the ‘summer' season ( May to November) temperatures of the benthic waters were higher than the average; to the contrary the period 1983-2001 (i.e. up to end of available data sets) was a cold period. Correlations between various time series of hydrographical and meteorological parameters were calculated to establish the relative importance of vertical versus horizontal exchanges in ventilation of the locked water masses. A low correlation (R=0.24) was obtained between the variation of the winter sea surface temperature on the shelf and the ‘summer' temperatures of locked waters. A higher correlation (R=0.56) was found between the summer temperatures of the Cold Intermediate Waters below the seasonal pycnocline in the deep sea (density range sigma-theta= 14.2-14.8) and the ‘summer' temperatures of the ‘locked' waters in the benthic boundary layer on the shelf. Analysis shows that the isopycnic exchanges with the deep sea are more important for ventilation of the benthic boundary layer on the shelf than winter convection on the shelf itself. This work was made possible via support from EU FP6 SESAME and EU FP7 MyOcean projects and NERC PhD studentship. References Özsoy, E. and Ünlüata, Ü., 1997. Oceanography of the Black Sea: a review of some recent results. Earth-Sci. Rev., 42(4): 231-272. Ivanov, L.I., Belokopytov, V.N., Özsoy, E. and Samodurov, A., 2000. Ventilation of the Black Sea pycnocline on seasonal and interannual time scales. Mediterr. Mar. Sci., 1/2: 61-74.

Sea ice concentration temporal variability over the Weddell Sea and its relationship with tropical sea surface temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barreira, S.; Compagnucci, R.

2007-01-01

Principal Components Analysis (PCA) in S-Mode (correlation between temporal series) was performed on sea ice monthly anomalies, in order to investigate which are the main temporal patterns, where are the homogenous areas located and how are they related to the sea surface temperature (SST). This analysis provides 9 patterns (4 in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas and 5 in the Weddell Sea) that represent the most important temporal features that dominated sea ice concentration anomalies (SICA) variability in the Weddell, Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas over the 1979-2000 period. Monthly Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations data set derived from satellite information generated by NASA Team algorithm and acquired from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) were used. Monthly means SST are provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis. The first temporal pattern series obtained by PCA has its homogeneous area located at the external region of the Weddell and Bellingshausen Seas and Drake Passage, mostly north of 60°S. The second region is centered in 30°W and located at the southeast of the Weddell. The third area is localized east of 30°W and north of 60°S. South of the first area, the fourth PC series has its homogenous region, between 30° and 60°W. The last area is centered at 0° W and south of 60°S. Correlation charts between the five Principal Components series and SST were performed. Positive correlations over the Tropical Pacific Ocean were found for the five PCs when SST series preceded SICA PC series. The sign of the correlation could relate the occurrence of an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm (cold) event with posterior positive (negative) anomalies of sea ice concentration over the Weddell Sea.

Two centuries of observed atmospheric variability and change over the North Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stendel, Martin; van den Besselaar, Else; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth; Lefebvre, Christiana; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Schenk, Frederik; van der Schrier, Gerard

2015-04-01

Situated in northwestern Europe, the North Sea region is under influence of air masses from subtropical to arctic origin, and thus exhibits significant natural climate variability. As the land areas surrounding the North Sea are densely populated, climate change is an important issue in terms of e.g. coastal protection, fishery and trade. This study is part of the NOSCCA initiative (North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment) and presents observed variability and changes in atmospheric parameters during the last roughly 200 years. Circulation patterns show considerable decadal variability. In recent decades, a northward shift of storm tracks and increased cyclonic activity has been observed. There is also an indication of increased persistence of weather types. The wind climate is dominated by large multidecadal variability, and no robust long-term trends can be identified in the available datasets. There is a clear positive trend in near-surface temperatures, in particular during spring and winter. Over the region as a whole, no clear long-term precipitation trends are visible, although regional indications exist for an increased risk of extreme precipitation events.

Abnormal Winter Melting of the Arctic Sea Ice Cap Observed by the Spaceborne Passive Microwave Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seongsuk; Yi, Yu

2016-12-01

The spatial size and variation of Arctic sea ice play an important role in Earth’s climate system. These are affected by conditions in the polar atmosphere and Arctic sea temperatures. The Arctic sea ice concentration is calculated from brightness temperature data derived from the Defense Meteorological Satellite program (DMSP) F13 Special Sensor Microwave/Imagers (SSMI) and the DMSP F17 Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) sensors. Many previous studies point to significant reductions in sea ice and their causes. We investigated the variability of Arctic sea ice using the daily sea ice concentration data from passive microwave observations to identify the sea ice melting regions near the Arctic polar ice cap. We discovered the abnormal melting of the Arctic sea ice near the North Pole during the summer and the winter. This phenomenon is hard to explain only surface air temperature or solar heating as suggested by recent studies. We propose a hypothesis explaining this phenomenon. The heat from the deep sea in Arctic Ocean ridges and/ or the hydrothermal vents might be contributing to the melting of Arctic sea ice. This hypothesis could be verified by the observation of warm water column structure below the melting or thinning arctic sea ice through the project such as Coriolis dataset for reanalysis (CORA).

Forecast of Antarctic Sea Ice and Meteorological Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barreira, S.; Orquera, F.

2017-12-01

Since 2001, we have been forecasting the climatic fields of the Antarctic sea ice (SI) and surface air temperature, surface pressure and precipitation anomalies for the Southern Hemisphere at the Meteorological Department of the Argentine Naval Hydrographic Service with different techniques that have evolved with the years. Forecast is based on the results of Principal Components Analysis applied to SI series (S-Mode) that gives patterns of temporal series with validity areas (these series are important to determine which areas in Antarctica will have positive or negative SI anomalies based on what happen in the atmosphere) and, on the other hand, to SI fields (T-Mode) that give us the form of the SI fields anomalies based on a classification of 16 patterns. Each T-Mode pattern has unique atmospheric fields associated to them. Therefore, it is possible to forecast whichever atmosphere variable we decide for the Southern Hemisphere. When the forecast is obtained, each pattern has a probability of occurrence and sometimes it is necessary to compose more than one of them to obtain the final result. S-Mode and T-Mode are monthly updated with new data, for that reason the forecasts improved with the increase of cases since 2001. We used the Monthly Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations database derived from satellite information generated by NASA Team algorithm provided monthly by the National Snow and Ice Data Center of USA that begins in November 1978. Recently, we have been experimenting with multilayer Perceptron (neuronal network) with supervised learning and a back-propagation algorithm to improve the forecast. The Perceptron is the most common Artificial Neural Network topology dedicated to image pattern recognition. It was implemented through the use of temperature and pressure anomalies field images that were associated with a the different sea ice anomaly patterns. The variables analyzed included only composites of surface air temperature and pressure anomalies to simplify the density of input data and avoid a non-converging solution. Sea ice and atmospheric variables forecast can be checked every month at our web page http://www.hidro.gob.ar/smara/sb/sb.asp and at World Meteorological web page (Global Cryosphere Watch) http://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/seaice/.

On the Flow of Atlantic Water Towards the Arctic Ocean; a Synergy Between Altimetry and Hydrography.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chafik, L.; Nilsson, J.; Skagseth, O.; Lundberg, P.

2015-12-01

The Arctic climate is strongly influenced by the inflow of warm Atlantic water conveyed by the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC); the main heat conveyor into the Arctic Ocean. Based on sea surface height (SSH) data from altimetry, we develop a dynamical measure of the NwASC transport to diagnose its spatio-temporal variability. This supports a dynamical division of the NwASC into two flow regimes; the Svinøy Branch (SvB) in the Norwegian Sea, and the Fram Strait Branch (FSB) west of Spitsbergen. The SvB transport is well correlated with the SSH and atmospheric variability within the Nordic Seas, factors that also affect the inflow to the Barents Sea. In contrast, the FSB is regulated by regional atmospheric patterns around Svalbard and northern Barents Sea. We further relate anomalous flow events to temperature fluctuations of Atlantic water. A warm anomaly is found to propagate northwards, with a tendency to amplify enroute, after events of strong flow in the Norwegian Sea. A roughly 12-months delayed temperature signal is identified in the FSB. This suggests that hydrographic anomalies both upstream from the North Atlantic, and locally generated in the Norwegian Sea, are important for the oceanic heat and salt transport that eventually enters into the Arctic. We believe that the combination of the flow from altimetry and temperature fluctuations in the Nordic Seas can be used to qualitatively predict warm anomalies towards the Arctic Ocean, which could be a valuable addition to the forecast skill of the statistical Arctic sea-ice models.

Status of vulnerable Cystoseira populations along the Italian infralittoral fringe, and relationships with environmental and anthropogenic variables.

PubMed

Mancuso, F P; Strain, E M A; Piccioni, E; De Clerck, O; Sarà, G; Airoldi, L

2018-04-01

We analyzed the occurrence and status of infralittoral fringe populations of Cystoseira spp. (Fucales) at thirteen rocky sites around the Italian coastline, and explored the relationships with relevant environmental and anthropogenic variables. We found Cystoseira populations at 11 sites: most were scattered and comprised monospecific stands of C. compressa, and only 6 sites also supported sparse specimens of either C. amentacea var. stricta or C. brachycarpa. Coastal human population density, Chlorophyll a seawater concentrations, sea surface temperature, annual range of sea surface temperature and wave fetch explained most of the variation of the status of C. compressa. We hypothesize a generally unhealthy state of the Italian Cystoseira infralittoral fringe populations and identify multiple co-occurring anthropogenic stressors as the likely drivers of these poor conditions. Extensive baseline monitoring is needed to describe how Cystoseira populations are changing, and implement a management framework for the conservation of these valuable but vulnerable habitats. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global comparisons between the modified Pathfinder derived sea surface temperature and skin temperatures from the along-track scanning radiometer on board ERS-2: how close are we getting?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vazquez, J.

2001-01-01

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) as derived from the Pathfinder Sea Surface Temperature Data Set and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer on-board the European Remote Sensing Satellite provide a unique opportunity for comparing two independent SST data sets.

Warm layer and cool skin corrections for bulk water temperature measurements for air-sea interaction studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alappattu, Denny P.; Wang, Qing; Yamaguchi, Ryan; Lind, Richard J.; Reynolds, Mike; Christman, Adam J.

2017-08-01

The sea surface temperature (SST) relevant to air-sea interaction studies is the temperature immediately adjacent to the air, referred to as skin SST. Generally, SST measurements from ships and buoys are taken at depths varies from several centimeters to 5 m below the surface. These measurements, known as bulk SST, can differ from skin SST up to O(1°C). Shipboard bulk and skin SST measurements were made during the Coupled Air-Sea Processes and Electromagnetic ducting Research east coast field campaign (CASPER-East). An Infrared SST Autonomous Radiometer (ISAR) recorded skin SST, while R/V Sharp's Surface Mapping System (SMS) provided bulk SST from 1 m water depth. Since the ISAR is sensitive to sea spray and rain, missing skin SST data occurred in these conditions. However, SMS measurement is less affected by adverse weather and provided continuous bulk SST measurements. It is desirable to correct the bulk SST to obtain a good representation of the skin SST, which is the objective of this research. Bulk-skin SST difference has been examined with respect to meteorological factors associated with cool skin and diurnal warm layers. Strong influences of wind speed, diurnal effects, and net longwave radiation flux on temperature difference are noticed. A three-step scheme is established to correct for wind effect, diurnal variability, and then for dependency on net longwave radiation flux. Scheme is tested and compared to existing correction schemes. This method is able to effectively compensate for multiple factors acting to modify bulk SST measurements over the range of conditions experienced during CASPER-East.

The numerical modeling the sensitivity of coastal wind and ozone concentration to different SST forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Hyun-Jung; Lee, Hwa Woon; Jeon, Won-Bae; Lee, Soon-Hwan

2012-01-01

This study evaluated an atmospheric and air quality model of the spatial variability in low-level coastal winds and ozone concentration, which are affected by sea surface temperature (SST) forcing with different thermal gradients. Several numerical experiments examined the effect of sea surface SST forcing on the coastal atmosphere and air quality. In this study, the RAMS-CAMx model was used to estimate the sensitivity to two different resolutions of SST forcing during the episode day as well as to simulate the low-level coastal winds and ozone concentration over a complex coastal area. The regional model reproduced the qualitative effect of SST forcing and thermal gradients on the coastal flow. The high-resolution SST derived from NGSST-O (New Generation Sea Surface Temperature Open Ocean) forcing to resolve the warm SST appeared to enhance the mean response of low-level winds to coastal regions. These wind variations have important implications for coastal air quality. A higher ozone concentration was forecasted when SST data with a high resolution was used with the appropriate limitation of temperature, regional wind circulation, vertical mixing height and nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) near coastal areas.

Subtropical Gyre Variability as Seen from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, Sergio R.; McClain, Charles R.

2011-01-01

A satellite multi-sensor approach is used to analyse the biological response of open ocean regions of the subtropical gyres to changes in physical forcing. Thirteen years (1998-2010) of SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (Chl-a), combined with concurrent satellite records of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea level height, were analysed to investigate the seasonal and interannual variability of Chl-a concentration within these immense so-called ocean deserts. The seasonal variability of Chl-a within the gyres is driven mostly by the warming/cooling of surface waters. Summer warming promotes shallower mixed layers and lower Chl-a due to a reduction of vertical mixing and consequently a decrease in nutrient supply. The opposite happens during the winter cooling period. Therefore, long-term trends in SST have the potential to cause an impact on the interannual variability of Chl-a. Our analyses show that, during the 13 whole years of SeaWiFS data record, the North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and North Atlantic gyres experienced a decrease in Chl-a of 9%, 12%, and 11%, respectively, with corresponding SST increases of 0.27 C, 0.42 C, and 0.32 C. The South Pacific and South Atlantic gyres also showed warming trends but with weak positive trends in Chl-a that are not statistically significant. We hypothesize that the warming of surface waters in these two gyres are counterbalanced by other interacting physical and biological driving mechanisms, as indicated in previous studies.

Spatio-temporal modelling of dengue fever incidence in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che-Him, Norziha; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; @ Kamariah Kamaruddin, Nafisah

2018-04-01

Previous studies reported significant relationship between dengue incidence rate (DIR) and both climatic and non-climatic factors. Therefore, this study proposes a generalised additive model (GAM) framework for dengue risk in Malaysia by using both climatic and non-climatic factors. The data used is monthly DIR for 12 states of Malaysia from 2001 to 2009. In this study, we considered an annual trend, seasonal effects, population, population density and lagged DIR, rainfall, temperature, number of rainy days and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The population density is found to be positively related to monthly DIR. There are generally weak relationships between monthly DIR and climate variables. A negative binomial GAM shows that there are statistically significant relationships between DIR with climatic and non-climatic factors. These include mean rainfall and temperature, the number of rainy days, sea surface temperature and the interaction between mean temperature (lag 1 month) and sea surface temperature (lag 6 months). These also apply to DIR (lag 3 months) and population density.

Late Neogene Orbitally-Forced Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific as Measured by Uk'37 and TEX86

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, K. T.; Pearson, A.; Castañeda, I. S.; Peterson, L.

2017-12-01

Key features of late Neogene climate remain uncertain due to conflicting records derived from different sea surface temperature (SST) proxies. To resolve these disputes, it is necessary to explore both the consistencies and differences between paleotemperature estimates from critical oceanographic regimes. Here, we report orbital-scale climate variability at ODP Site 846 in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) in the interval from 5-6 Ma using alkenone and TEX86 temperature estimates. Results from both proxies are very similar in their secular trends and magnitude of long-term temperature change; and spectral analysis demonstrates that the records are coherent and in-phase or nearly in-phase in both the obliquity and precession bands. However, we find that the temperatures reconstructed by TEX86 are consistently offset towards colder values by 2ºC with orbital-scale variations approximately twice the amplitude of the Uk'37 derived estimates. Both temperature records are antiphased - i.e. "colder" - at higher sediment alkenone concentrations, a qualitative indicator of increased glacial productivity. Temperature differences between the proxies are accentuated during glacial intervals in contrasts to modern observations of EEP surface and subsurface temperatures, which show that thermocline temperatures are fairly stable, and thus by analogy, glacial cooling and/or enhanced upwelling should have reduced rather than accentuated temperature gradients in the upper water column. Therefore, arguments that Uk'37 corresponds to temperature variability in the surface, while TEX86 responds to the subsurface, may be too simplistic. Instead, it appears generally true that high-productivity environments, including the EEP, tend to have negative TEX86 anomalies. This may reflect a dual dependence of TEX86 records on both water column temperature and local productivity. Overall, our data suggest that in the EEP and likely in other upwelling zones, paleotemperature data derived from these proxies should not necessarily be used interchangeably and only Uk'37 is suitable for determining absolute SSTs. However, our data also suggest that TEX86 may be suitable for estimating long-term trends in SST and for spectral and phase analysis in upwelling regimes.

The Impact of Moisture Intrusions from Lower Latitudes on Arctic Net Surface Radiative Fluxes and Sea Ice Growth in Fall and Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegyi, B. M.; Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

The fall and winter seasons mark an important period in the evolution of Arctic sea ice, where energy is transferred away from the surface to facilitate the cooling of the surface and the growth of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. Climatologically, these seasons are characterized by distinct periods of increased and reduced surface cooling and sea ice growth. Periods of reduced sea ice growth and surface cooling are associated with cloudy conditions and the transport of warm and moist air from lower latitudes, termed moisture intrusions. In the research presented, we explore the regional and Arctic-wide impact of moisture intrusions on the surface net radiative fluxes and sea ice growth for each fall and winter season from 2000/01-2015/16, utilizing MERRA2 reanalysis data, PIOMAS sea ice thickness data, and daily CERES radiative flux data. Consistent with previous studies, we find that positive anomalies in downwelling longwave surface flux are associated with increased temperature and water vapor content in the atmospheric column contained within the moisture intrusions. Interestingly, there are periods of increased downwelling LW flux anomalies that persist for one week or longer (i.e. longer than synoptic timescales) that are associated with persistent poleward flux of warm, moist air from lower latitudes. These persistent anomalies significantly reduce the regional growth of Arctic sea ice, and may in part explain the interannual variability of fall and winter Arctic sea ice growth.

A study of the dynamics of droughts in Northern Brazil: Observations, theory, and numerical experiments with a global atmospheric circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.; Moura, A. D.

1980-01-01

The monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies over tropical Altantic and rainfall anomalies over two selected stations for 25 years (1948-1972) were examined. It is found that the most severe drought events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm sea surface temperature anomalies over north and cold sea surface temperature anomalies over south tropical Atlantic. Simultaneous occurrences of warm sea surface temperature anomaly at 15 deg N, 45 deg W and cold sea surface temperature anomaly at 15 deg S, 5 deg W were always associated with negative anomalies of rainfall, and vice versa. A simple primitive equation model is used to calculate the frictionally controlled and thermally driven circulation due to a prescribed heating function in a resting atmosphere.

Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vialard, J.; Jayakumar, A.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Lengaigne, M.; Sengupta, D.; Goswami, B. N.

2012-05-01

During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against ~0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); ~60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and ~40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our ~100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region, but does not contribute to large-scale intraseasonal SST variability due to its small spatial scale and random phase relation to the active-break monsoon cycle. The effect of oceanic eddies; however, remains to be explored at a higher spatial resolution.

Habitat suitability of the Atlantic bluefin tuna by size class: An ecological niche approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Druon, Jean-Noël; Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Hanke, Alex R.; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Damalas, Dimitrios; Tičina, Vjekoslav; Quílez-Badia, Gemma; Ramirez, Karina; Arregui, Igor; Tserpes, George; Reglero, Patricia; Deflorio, Michele; Oray, Isik; Saadet Karakulak, F.; Megalofonou, Persefoni; Ceyhan, Tevfik; Grubišić, Leon; MacKenzie, Brian R.; Lamkin, John; Afonso, Pedro; Addis, Piero

2016-03-01

An ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach was used to predict the potential feeding and spawning habitats of small (5-25 kg, only feeding) and large (>25 kg) Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABFT), Thunnus thynnus, in the Mediterranean Sea, the North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. The ENM was built bridging knowledge on ecological traits of ABFT (e.g. temperature tolerance, mobility, feeding and spawning strategy) with patterns of selected environmental variables (chlorophyll-a fronts and concentration, sea surface current and temperature, sea surface height anomaly) that were identified using an extensive set of precisely geo-located presence data. The results highlight a wider temperature tolerance for larger fish allowing them to feed in the northern - high chlorophyll levels - latitudes up to the Norwegian Sea in the eastern Atlantic and to the Gulf of Saint Lawrence in the western basin. Permanent suitable feeding habitat for small ABFT was predicted to be mostly located in temperate latitudes in the North Atlantic and in the Mediterranean Sea, as well as in subtropical waters off north-west Africa, while summer potential habitat in the Gulf of Mexico was found to be unsuitable for both small and large ABFTs. Potential spawning grounds were found to occur in the Gulf of Mexico from March-April in the south-east to April-May in the north, while favourable conditions evolve in the Mediterranean Sea from mid-May in the eastern to mid-July in the western basin. Other secondary potential spawning grounds not supported by observations were predicted in the Azores area and off Morocco to Senegal during July and August when extrapolating the model settings from the Gulf of Mexico into the North Atlantic. The presence of large ABFT off Florida and the Bahamas in spring was not explained by the model as is, however the environmental variables other than the sea surface height anomaly appeared to be favourable for spawning in part of this area. Defining key spatial and temporal habitats should further help in building spatially-explicit stock assessment models, thus improving the spatial management of bluefin tuna fisheries.

An Examination of Intertidal Temperatures Through Remotely Sensed Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmi, V.

2010-12-01

MODIS Aqua and Terra satellites produce both land surface temperatures and sea surface temperatures using calibrated algorithms. In this study, the land surface temperatures were retrieved during clear-sky (non-cloudy) conditions at a 1 km2 resolution (overpass time at 10:30 am) whereas the sea surface temperatures are also retrieved during clear-sky conditions at approximately 4 km resolution (overpass time at 1:30 pm). The purpose of this research was to examine remotely sensed sea surface (SST), intertidal (IST), and land surface temperatures (LST), in conjunction with observed in situ mussel body temperatures, as well as associated weather and tidal data. In Strawberry Hill, Oregon, it was determined that intertidal surface temperatures are similar to but distinctly different from land surface temperatures although influenced by sea surface temperatures. The air temperature and differential heating throughout the day, as well as location in relation to the shore, can greatly influence the remotely sensed surface temperatures. Therefore, remotely sensed satellite data is a very useful tool in examining intertidal temperatures for regional climatic changes over long time periods and may eventually help researchers forecast expected climate changes and help determine associated biological implications.

Regional difference of the vertical structure of seasonal thermocline and its impact on sea surface temperature in the North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamaguchi, R.; Suga, T.

2016-12-01

Recent observational studies show that, during the warming season, a large amount of heat flux is penetrated through the base of thin mixed layer by vertical eddy diffusion, in addition to penetration of solar radiation [1]. In order to understand this heat penetration process due to vertical eddy diffusivity and its contribution to seasonal variation of sea surface temperature, we investigated the evolution of thermal stratification below the summertime thin mixed layer (i.e. evolution of seasonal thermocline) and its vertical structure in the North Pacific using high vertical resolution temperature profile observed by Argo floats. We quantified the vertical structure of seasonal thermocline as deviations from the linear structure where the vertical gradient of temperature is constant, that is, "shape anomaly". The shape anomaly is variable representing the extent of the bend of temperature profiles. We found that there are larger values of shape anomaly in the region where the seasonal sea surface temperature warming is relatively faster. To understand the regional difference of shape anomalies, we investigated the relationship between time changes in shape anomalies and net surface heat flux and surface kinetic energy flux. From May to July, the analysis indicated that, in a large part of North Pacific, there's a tendency for shape anomalies to develop strongly (weakly) under the conditions of large (small) downward net surface heat flux and small (large) downward surface kinetic energy flux. Since weak (strong) development of shape anomalies means efficient (inefficient) downward heat transport from the surface, these results suggest that the regional difference of the downward heat penetration below mixed layer is explained reasonably well by differences in surface heat forcing and surface wind forcing in a vertical one dimensional framework. [1] Hosoda et al. (2015), J. Oceanogr., 71, 541-556.

The Impact of Trends in the Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation on Mediterranean Surface Turbulent Heat Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanski, Joy; Hameed, Sultan

2015-01-01

Interannual variations of latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Mediterranean for the boreal winter season (DJF) show positive trends during 1958-2011. Comparison of correlations between the heat fluxes and the intensity and location of the Azores High (AH), and the NAO and East Atlantic-West Russia (EAWR) teleconnections, along with analysis of composites of surface temperature, humidity and wind fields for different teleconnection states, demonstrates that variations of the AH are found to explain the heat flux changes more successfully than the NAO and the EAWR. Trends in sea level pressure and longitude of the Azores High during DJF show a strengthening, and an eastward shift. DJF Azores High pressure and longitude are shown to co-vary such that variability of the Azores High occurs along an axis defined by lower pressure and westward location at one extreme, and higher pressure and eastward location at the other extreme. The shift of the Azores High from predominance of the low/west state to the high/east state induces trends in Mediterranean Sea surface winds, temperature and moisture. These, combined with sea surface warming trends, produce trends in wintertime Mediterranean Sea sensible and latent heat fluxes.

Improvement in Simulation of Eurasian Winter Climate Variability with a Realistic Arctic Sea Ice Condition in an Atmospheric GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong

2012-01-01

The present study investigates how much a realistic Arctic sea ice condition can contribute to improve simulation of the winter climate variation over the Eurasia region. Model experiments are set up using different sea ice boundary conditions over the past 24 years (i.e., 1988-2011). One is an atmospheric model inter-comparison (AMIP) type of run forced with observed sea-surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and greenhouse gases (referred to as Exp RSI), and the other is the same as Exp RSI except for the sea ice forcing, which is a repeating climatological annual cycle (referred to as Exp CSI). Results show that Exp RSI produces the observed dominant pattern of Eurasian winter temperatures and their interannual variation better than Exp CSI (correlation difference up to approx. 0.3). Exp RSI captures the observed strong relationship between the sea ice concentration near the Barents and Kara seas and the temperature anomaly across Eurasia, including northeastern Asia, which is not well captured in Exp CSI. Lagged atmospheric responses to sea ice retreat are examined using observations to understand atmospheric processes for the Eurasian cooling response including the Arctic temperature increase, sea-level pressure increase, upper-level jet weakening and cold air outbreak toward the mid-latitude. The reproducibility of these lagged responses by Exp RSI is also evaluated.

An overview of new insights from satellite salinity missions on oceanography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reul, Nicolas

2015-04-01

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, launched on 2 November 2009, is the European Space Agency's (ESA) second Earth Explorer Opportunity mission. The scientific objectives of the SMOS mission directly respond to the need for global observations of soil moisture and ocean salinity, two key variables describing the Earth's water cycle and having been identified as Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). After five years of satellite Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) monitoring from SMOS data, we will present an overview of the scientific highlights these data have brougtht to the oceanographic communities. In particular, we shall review the impact of SMOS SSS and brightness tempeaerture data for the monitoring of: -Mesoscale variability of SSS (and density) in frontal structures, eddies, -Ocean propagative SSS signals (e.g. TIW, planetary waves), -Freshwater flux Monitoring (Evaportaion minus precipitation, river run off), -Large scale SSS anomalies related to climate fluctuations (e.g. ENSO, IOD), -Air-Sea interactions (equatorial upwellings, Tropical cyclone wakes) -Temperature-Salinity dependencies, -Sea Ice thickness, -Tropical Storm and high wind monitoring, -Ocean surface bio-geo chemistry.

What caused the Extreme Storm Season over the North Atlantic and the UK in Winter 2013-14?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Wild, S.; Befort, D. J.

2015-12-01

In winter 2013-2014, the UK experienced exceptional stormy and rainy weather conditions. Concurrently, surface temperatures over large parts of central North America fell to near record minimum values. One potential driver for these cold conditions is discussed to be the increasingly warm surface waters of the tropical west Pacific. It has been suggested these increasing sea surface temperatures could also be the cause for extreme weather over the British Isles. Testing this hypothesis, we investigate mechanisms linking the tropical west Pacific and European wind storm activity. We focus on two research questions. Firstly: Was a chain of anomaly patterns with origin in the west Pacific present in the winter 2013-14? And secondly: Can centres of action along such a chain be identified with a strong interannual relationship in the recent past? Our results, using primarily ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2014, show an absolute maximum of wind storm frequency over the northeast Atlantic and the British Isles in winter 2013-14. We also find absolute minimum surface temperatures in central North America and increased convective activity over the tropical west Pacific in the same season. The winter 2013-14 was additionally characterized by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical northwest Atlantic. Although the interannual variability of wind storms in the northeast Atlantic and surface temperatures in North America are significantly anti-correlated, we cannot directly relate wind storm frequency with tropical west Pacific anomalies. We thus conclude that the conditions over the Pacific in winter 2013-14 were favourable but not sufficient to explain the record number of wind storms in this season. Instead, we suggest that warm north Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies in combination with cold surface temperatures over North America played a more important role for generating higher wind storm counts over the northeast Atlantic and the UK.

Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems.

PubMed

Smith, K L; Ruhl, H A; Bett, B J; Billett, D S M; Lampitt, R S; Kaufmann, R S

2009-11-17

Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate.

Snow depth retrieval from L-band satellite measurements on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maaß, N.; Kaleschke, L.; Wever, N.; Lehning, M.; Nicolaus, M.; Rossmann, H. L.

2017-12-01

The passive microwave mission SMOS provides daily coverage of the polar regions and measures at a low frequency of 1.4 GHz (L-band). SMOS observations have been used to operationally retrieve sea ice thickness up to 1 m and to estimate snow depth in the Arctic for thicker ice. Here, we present how SMOS-retrieved snow depths compare with airborne measurements from NASA's Operation IceBridge mission (OIB) and with AMSR-2 satellite retrievals at higher frequencies, and we show first applications to Antarctic sea ice. In previous studies, SMOS and OIB snow depths showed good agreement on spatial scales from 50 to 1000 km for some days and disagreement for other days. Here, we present a more comprehensive comparison of OIB and SMOS snow depths in the Arctic for 2011 to 2015. We find that the SMOS retrieval works best for cold conditions and depends on auxiliary information on ice surface temperature, here provided by MODIS thermal imagery satellite data. However, comparing SMOS and OIB snow depths is difficult because of the different spatial resolutions (SMOS: 40 km, OIB: 40 m). Spatial variability within the SMOS footprint can lead to different snow conditions as seen from SMOS and OIB. Ideally the comparison is made for uniform conditions: Low lead and open water fraction, low spatial and temporal variability of ice surface temperature, no mixture of multi- and first-year ice. Under these conditions and cold temperatures (surface temperatures below -25°C), correlation coefficients between SMOS and OIB snow depths increase from 0.3 to 0.6. A finding from the comparison with AMSR-2 snow depths is that the SMOS-based maps depend less on the age of the sea ice than the maps derived from higher frequencies. Additionally, we show first results of SMOS snow depths for Antarctic sea ice. SMOS observations are compared to measurements of autonomous snow buoys drifting in the Weddell Sea since 2014. For a better comparability of these point measurements with SMOS data, we use model simulations along these trajectories made with a sea ice version of SNOWPACK, a 1D multi-layer thermodynamic snow model driven by reanalysis data. These simulations are especially helpful for indicating the occurrence of snow-ice-transformation, which cannot be identified in the buoy data and contributes to the measured snow height.

Multi-species coral Sr/Ca-based sea-surface temperature reconstruction using Orbicella faveolata and Siderastrea siderea from the Florida Straits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flannery, Jennifer A.; Richey, Julie N.; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Poore, Richard Z.; DeLong, Kristine L.

2017-01-01

We present new, monthly-resolved Sr/Ca-based sea-surface temperature (SST) records from two species of massive coral, Orbicella faveolata and Siderastrea siderea, from the Dry Tortugas National Park, FL, USA (DTNP). We combine these new records with published data from three additional S. siderea coral colonies to generate a 278-year long multi-species stacked Sr/Ca-SST record from DTNP. The composite record of mean annual Sr/Ca-SST at DTNP shows pronounced decadal-scale variability with a range of 1 to 2°C. Notable cool intervals in the Sr/Ca-derived SST lasting about a decade centered at ~1845, ~1935, and ~1965 are associated with reduced summer Sr/Ca-SST (monthly maxima < 29°C), and imply a reduction in the spatial extent of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP). There is significant coherence between the composite DTNP Sr/Ca-SST record and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, with the AMO lagging Sr/Ca-SST at DTNP by 9 years. Low frequency variability in the Gulf Stream surface transport, which originates near DTNP, may provide a link for the lagged relationship between multidecadal variability at DTNP and the AMO.

On the calculation of air-sea fluxes of CO2 in the presence of temperature and salinity gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolf, D. K.; Land, P. E.; Shutler, J. D.; Goddijn-Murphy, L. M.; Donlon, C. J.

2016-02-01

The presence of vertical temperature and salinity gradients in the upper ocean and the occurrence of variations in temperature and salinity on time scales from hours to many years complicate the calculation of the flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) across the sea surface. Temperature and salinity affect the interfacial concentration of aqueous CO2 primarily through their effect on solubility with lesser effects related to saturated vapor pressure and the relationship between fugacity and partial pressure. The effects of temperature and salinity profiles in the water column and changes in the aqueous concentration act primarily through the partitioning of the carbonate system. Climatological calculations of flux require attention to variability in the upper ocean and to the limited validity of assuming "constant chemistry" in transforming measurements to climatological values. Contrary to some recent analysis, it is shown that the effect on CO2 fluxes of a cool skin on the sea surface is large and ubiquitous. An opposing effect on calculated fluxes is related to the occurrence of warm layers near the surface; this effect can be locally large but will usually coincide with periods of low exchange. A salty skin and salinity anomalies in the upper ocean also affect CO2 flux calculations, though these haline effects are generally weaker than the thermal effects.

Only skin deep?: Evaluating the utility of remotely sensed sea surface temperatures in Greenland fjords

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, T.; Shepherd, B.; Skinner, S.; Abdalati, W.; Scambos, T. A.

2017-12-01

The Greenland ice sheet (GIS) contributes one-quarter of the globe's total sea level rise each year and one-third of its mass loss occurs at outlet glaciers. One mechanism for this loss is through melting at the ice-ocean boundary through interactions with relatively warm ocean water. In situ ocean measurements serve as the predominant method for studying these harsh and remote fjord environments, but have often only been acquired within the last decade in most Greenland fjords. Since many outlet glaciers began to accelerate and retreat before that period, the lack of earlier measurements requires us to rely on an understanding of contemporary fjord processes and inference of past conditions to evaluate the ocean's role in observed glacier change. Remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) have been widely unused in studies of glacial fjords and may hold clues to fjord circulation and ice-ocean interactions spanning before rapid change began at the turn of the century. However, the utility of this method in studying glacial fjords has not been thoroughly explored. In this study, we compare remotely sensed SSTs to previously published in situ ocean temperature measurements taken from 2009 to present at the Sermilik Fjord and 2015-2016 at the Petermann, in order to determine the utility of SSTs in studying polar fjord waters. SSTs were derived from Landsat 7 and 8 thermal infrared imagery to produce a time series of the fjord surface. The time series was correlated with coincident mooring and shipboard ocean temperature measurements using various lags and spatial offsets. Sermilik Fjord SSTs frequently gave temperatures 2C warmer than adjacent surface in situ measurements, while Petermann temperatures show much closer relationships. These trends are likely driven by variability in wind velocities and density gradients that influence mixing within the surface layer of the ocean. However, variability in the offsets between SSTs and in situ measurements also provides insight into subglacial discharge, fjord circulation, and subglacial melting between seasons. Continued work at the Sermilik and Petermann Fjords will help to determine further linkages between SSTs and the fjord water column and how that relationship varies from one glacier system to the next.

DMS role in ENSO cycle in the tropics: DMS Role in ENSO Cycle in Tropics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Li; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Russell, Lynn M.

We examined the multiyear mean and variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and its relationship to sulfate aerosols, as well as cloud microphysical and radiative properties. We conducted a 150 year simulation using preindustrial conditions produced by the Community Earth System Model embedded with a dynamic DMS module. The model simulated the mean spatial distribution of DMS emissions and burden, as well as sulfur budgets associated with DMS, SO2, H2SO4, and sulfate that were generally similar to available observations and inventories for a variety of regions. Changes in simulated sea-to-air DMS emissions and associated atmospheric abundance, along with associated aerosols andmore » cloud and radiative properties, were consistently dominated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the tropical Pacific region. Simulated DMS, aerosols, and clouds showed a weak positive feedback on sea surface temperature. This feedback suggests a link among DMS, aerosols, clouds, and climate on interannual timescales. The variability of DMS emissions associated with ENSO was primarily caused by a higher variation in wind speed during La Niña events. The simulation results also suggest that variations in DMS emissions increase the frequency of La Niña events but do not alter ENSO variability in terms of the standard deviation of the Niño 3 sea surface temperature anomalies.« less

28-ka History of Sea Surface Temperature, Primary Productivity and Planktonic Community Variability in the Western Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmand, A.; Marcantonio, F.; Bianchi, T.

2006-12-01

Uranium-series radionuclides and organic compounds, which represent major groups of planktonic organisms, have been measured in western Arabian Sea sediments that span the past 28 ka. Variability of the Indian Ocean monsoons and their influence on primary productivity, sea surface temperature (SST), and planktonic community structure has been investigated. The average alkenone-derived SST for the glacial was ~3°C lower than that measured for the Holocene. We also identify, for the first time, an interval of exceptionally low SSTs between 19-18.1 ka BP (15.3°C at 18.5 ka). During this time, the low SSTs coincide with high cumulative biomarker fluxes (CBF). We propose that intensification of winter northeast monsoon winds during the glacial period resulted in cold SSTs, deep convective mixing, and enhanced primary productivity. Following the last termination, and within the Holocene, SSTs vary by ~2°C with high CBFs occurring at times of relatively warmer SSTs. The fluxes of dinoflagellates and zooplankton relative to the total flux of organisms remain constant throughout the record. However, transitioning from the glacial to the Holocene, diatom fluxes comparatively increase relative to the total flux of organisms, while those of coccolithophorids decrease. Considering that the Indian Ocean monsoons are an important component of the global climate system, a shift in the planktonic ecosystem structure in the Arabian Sea may have important implications for the global biogeochemical cycle of carbon.

Short-Term Variability on the Scotian Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenan, B.; Petrie, B.; Harrison, G.; Oakey, N.; Strain, P.

2002-12-01

The traditional view of the production cycle on the continental shelf of Nova Scotia features a spring bloom followed by a period of low production and a less intense fall bloom. The annual cycle of primary productivity thus has a large, low frequency component. However, there is increasing evidence that the production cycle has significant variability on shorter time scales. Physical, chemical and biological variability on the Scotian Shelf is examined on a daily to weekly timescale. This is accomplished through the use of a newly developed mooring platform (SeaHorse) that uses surface wave energy to enable the instrument to climb down the mooring wire and then float upwards while sampling the water column. This provides bi-hourly profiles of temperature, salinity, pressure and chlorophyll at one location over month-long periods. Results from the three-week deployment in October 2000 indicate a subsurface chlorophyll maximum below the pycnocline during the first part of the time series. An event occurred in mid-October during which the temperature, salinity and density iso-surfaces rose approximately 25 m. During this event, a small bloom, with peak chlorophyll concentrations of about 2 mg m-3 and duration of several days, began as nutrients were brought into the upper part of the water column by upwelling-favorable winds. SeaWiFS ocean color satellite images were valuable in providing a spatial context for chlorophyll concentrations, however, the lack of temporal resolution due to poor quality images means that this data set provided limited information for short-term chlorophyll variability. Gradient Richardson Numbers were estimated for 2 m vertical bins using SeaHorse CTD data and nearby ADCP current measurements. A trend of decreasing Ri in the ocean mixed layer with increasing surface wind stress is suggested.

Sea Surface Temperature and Seawater Oxygen Isotope Variability Recorded in a Madagascar Coral Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zinke, J.; Dullo, W. Chr; Eisenhauer, A.

2003-04-01

We analysed a 336 year coral oxygen isotope record off southwest Madagascar in the Mozambique Channel. Based on temporal variability of skeletal oxygen isotopes annual mean sea surface temperatures are reconstructed for the period from 1659 to 1995. Sr/Ca ratios were measured for selected windows with monthly resolution (1973 to 1995, 1863 to 1910, 1784 to 1809, 1688 to 1710) to validate the SST reconstructions derived from oxygen isotopes. The coral proxy data were validated against gridded SST data sets. The coral oxygen isotope record is coherent with Kaplan-SST and GISST2.3b on an interdecadal frequency of 17 years, which is the most prominent frequency band observed in this region. The Sr/Ca-SST agree well with SST observations in the validation period (1863 to 1910), whereas the d18O derived SST show largest discrepencies during this time interval. By taking into account the SST values derived from coral Sr/Ca, we were able to reconstruct d18O seawater variability. This indicates that d18O seawater variations contributed significantly to interannual and interdecadal variations in coral d18O. We propose that the local surface-ocean evaporation-precipitation balance and remote forcing by ENSO via South Equatorial Current and/or Indonesian throughflow variability may contribute to observed d18O variability. Our results indicate that coral d18O may be used to reconstruct temporal variations in the fresh water balance within the Indian Ocean on interannual to interdecadal time scales.

Modelling the effects of environmental conditions on the acoustic occurrence and behaviour of Antarctic blue whales

PubMed Central

Shabangu, Fannie W.; Yemane, Dawit; Stafford, Kathleen M.; Ensor, Paul; Findlay, Ken P.

2017-01-01

Harvested to perilously low numbers by commercial whaling during the past century, the large scale response of Antarctic blue whales Balaenoptera musculus intermedia to environmental variability is poorly understood. This study uses acoustic data collected from 586 sonobuoys deployed in the austral summers of 1997 through 2009, south of 38°S, coupled with visual observations of blue whales during the IWC SOWER line-transect surveys. The characteristic Z-call and D-call of Antarctic blue whales were detected using an automated detection template and visual verification method. Using a random forest model, we showed the environmental preferences pattern, spatial occurrence and acoustic behaviour of Antarctic blue whales. Distance to the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (SBACC), latitude and distance from the nearest Antarctic shores were the main geographic predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Satellite-derived sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and productivity (chlorophyll-a) were the most important environmental predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Call rates of D-calls were strongly predicted by the location of the SBACC, latitude and visually detected number of whales in an area while call rates of Z-call were predicted by the SBACC, latitude and longitude. Satellite-derived sea surface height, wind stress, wind direction, water depth, sea surface temperatures, chlorophyll-a and wind speed were important environmental predictors of blue whale call rates in the Southern Ocean. Blue whale call occurrence and call rates varied significantly in response to inter-annual and long term variability of those environmental predictors. Our results identify the response of Antarctic blue whales to inter-annual variability in environmental conditions and highlighted potential suitable habitats for this population. Such emerging knowledge about the acoustic behaviour, environmental and habitat preferences of Antarctic blue whales is important in improving the management and conservation of this highly depleted species. PMID:28222124

Modelling the effects of environmental conditions on the acoustic occurrence and behaviour of Antarctic blue whales.

PubMed

Shabangu, Fannie W; Yemane, Dawit; Stafford, Kathleen M; Ensor, Paul; Findlay, Ken P

2017-01-01

Harvested to perilously low numbers by commercial whaling during the past century, the large scale response of Antarctic blue whales Balaenoptera musculus intermedia to environmental variability is poorly understood. This study uses acoustic data collected from 586 sonobuoys deployed in the austral summers of 1997 through 2009, south of 38°S, coupled with visual observations of blue whales during the IWC SOWER line-transect surveys. The characteristic Z-call and D-call of Antarctic blue whales were detected using an automated detection template and visual verification method. Using a random forest model, we showed the environmental preferences pattern, spatial occurrence and acoustic behaviour of Antarctic blue whales. Distance to the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (SBACC), latitude and distance from the nearest Antarctic shores were the main geographic predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Satellite-derived sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and productivity (chlorophyll-a) were the most important environmental predictors of blue whale call occurrence. Call rates of D-calls were strongly predicted by the location of the SBACC, latitude and visually detected number of whales in an area while call rates of Z-call were predicted by the SBACC, latitude and longitude. Satellite-derived sea surface height, wind stress, wind direction, water depth, sea surface temperatures, chlorophyll-a and wind speed were important environmental predictors of blue whale call rates in the Southern Ocean. Blue whale call occurrence and call rates varied significantly in response to inter-annual and long term variability of those environmental predictors. Our results identify the response of Antarctic blue whales to inter-annual variability in environmental conditions and highlighted potential suitable habitats for this population. Such emerging knowledge about the acoustic behaviour, environmental and habitat preferences of Antarctic blue whales is important in improving the management and conservation of this highly depleted species.

Quantitative Assessment of Antarctic Climate Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordonez, A.; Schneider, D. P.

2013-12-01

The Antarctic climate is both extreme and highly variable, but there are indications it may be changing. As the climate in Antarctica can affect global sea level and ocean circulation, it is important to understand and monitor its behavior. Observational and model data have been used to study climate change in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, though observational data is sparse and models have difficulty reproducing many observed climate features. For example, a leading hypothesis that ozone depletion has been responsible for sea ice trends is struggling with the inability of ozone-forced models to reproduce the observed sea ice increase. The extent to which this data-model disagreement represents inadequate observations versus model biases is unknown. This research assessed a variety of climate change indicators to present an overview of Antarctic climate that will allow scientists to easily access this data and compare indicators with other observational data and model output. Indicators were obtained from observational and reanalysis data for variables such as temperature, sea ice area, and zonal wind stress. Multiple datasets were used for key variables. Monthly and annual anomaly data from Antarctica and the Southern Ocean as well as tropical indices were plotted as time series on common axes for comparison. Trends and correlations were also computed. Zonal wind, surface temperature, and austral springtime sea ice had strong relationships and were further discussed in terms of how they may relate to climate variability and change in the Antarctic. This analysis will enable hypothesized mechanisms of Antarctic climate change to be critically evaluated.

An improved hindcast approach for evaluation and diagnosis of physical processes in global climate models

DOE PAGES

Ma, H. -Y.; Chuang, C. C.; Klein, S. A.; ...

2015-11-06

Here, we present an improved procedure of generating initial conditions (ICs) for climate model hindcast experiments with specified sea surface temperature and sea ice. The motivation is to minimize errors in the ICs and lead to a better evaluation of atmospheric parameterizations' performance in the hindcast mode. We apply state variables (horizontal velocities, temperature and specific humidity) from the operational analysis/reanalysis for the atmospheric initial states. Without a data assimilation system, we apply a two-step process to obtain other necessary variables to initialize both the atmospheric (e.g., aerosols and clouds) and land models (e.g., soil moisture). First, we nudge onlymore » the model horizontal velocities towards operational analysis/reanalysis values, given a 6-hour relaxation time scale, to obtain all necessary variables. Compared to the original strategy in which horizontal velocities, temperature and specific humidity are nudged, the revised approach produces a better representation of initial aerosols and cloud fields which are more consistent and closer to observations and model's preferred climatology. Second, we obtain land ICs from an offline land model simulation forced with observed precipitation, winds, and surface fluxes. This approach produces more realistic soil moisture in the land ICs. With this refined procedure, the simulated precipitation, clouds, radiation, and surface air temperature over land are improved in the Day 2 mean hindcasts. Following this procedure, we propose a “Core” integration suite which provides an easily repeatable test allowing model developers to rapidly assess the impacts of various parameterization changes on the fidelity of modelled cloud-associated processes relative to observations.« less

An improved hindcast approach for evaluation and diagnosis of physical processes in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, H.-Y.; Chuang, C. C.; Klein, S. A.; Lo, M.-H.; Zhang, Y.; Xie, S.; Zheng, X.; Ma, P.-L.; Zhang, Y.; Phillips, T. J.

2015-12-01

We present an improved procedure of generating initial conditions (ICs) for climate model hindcast experiments with specified sea surface temperature and sea ice. The motivation is to minimize errors in the ICs and lead to a better evaluation of atmospheric parameterizations' performance in the hindcast mode. We apply state variables (horizontal velocities, temperature, and specific humidity) from the operational analysis/reanalysis for the atmospheric initial states. Without a data assimilation system, we apply a two-step process to obtain other necessary variables to initialize both the atmospheric (e.g., aerosols and clouds) and land models (e.g., soil moisture). First, we nudge only the model horizontal velocities toward operational analysis/reanalysis values, given a 6 h relaxation time scale, to obtain all necessary variables. Compared to the original strategy in which horizontal velocities, temperature, and specific humidity are nudged, the revised approach produces a better representation of initial aerosols and cloud fields which are more consistent and closer to observations and model's preferred climatology. Second, we obtain land ICs from an off-line land model simulation forced with observed precipitation, winds, and surface fluxes. This approach produces more realistic soil moisture in the land ICs. With this refined procedure, the simulated precipitation, clouds, radiation, and surface air temperature over land are improved in the Day 2 mean hindcasts. Following this procedure, we propose a "Core" integration suite which provides an easily repeatable test allowing model developers to rapidly assess the impacts of various parameterization changes on the fidelity of modeled cloud-associated processes relative to observations.

Bracketing mid-pliocene sea surface temperature: maximum and minimum possible warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry

2004-01-01

Estimates of sea surface temperature (SST) from ocean cores reveal a warm phase of the Pliocene between about 3.3 and 3.0 Mega-annums (Ma). Pollen records from land based cores and sections, although not as well dated, also show evidence for a warmer climate at about the same time. Increased greenhouse forcing and altered ocean heat transport is the leading candidates for the underlying cause of Pliocene global warmth. However, despite being a period of global warmth, there exists considerable variability within this interval. Two new SST reconstructions have been created to provide a climatological error bar for warm peak phases of the Pliocene. These data represent the maximum and minimum possible warming recorded within the 3.3 to 3.0 Ma interval.

Remote sensing the sea surface CO2 of the Baltic Sea using the SOMLO methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parard, G.; Charantonis, A. A.; Rutgerson, A.

2015-06-01

Studies of coastal seas in Europe have noted the high variability of the CO2 system. This high variability, generated by the complex mechanisms driving the CO2 fluxes, complicates the accurate estimation of these mechanisms. This is particularly pronounced in the Baltic Sea, where the mechanisms driving the fluxes have not been characterized in as much detail as in the open oceans. In addition, the joint availability of in situ measurements of CO2 and of sea-surface satellite data is limited in the area. In this paper, we used the SOMLO (self-organizing multiple linear output; Sasse et al., 2013) methodology, which combines two existing methods (i.e. self-organizing maps and multiple linear regression) to estimate the ocean surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in the Baltic Sea from the remotely sensed sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, coloured dissolved organic matter, net primary production, and mixed-layer depth. The outputs of this research have a horizontal resolution of 4 km and cover the 1998-2011 period. These outputs give a monthly map of the Baltic Sea at a very fine spatial resolution. The reconstructed pCO2 values over the validation data set have a correlation of 0.93 with the in situ measurements and a root mean square error of 36 μatm. Removing any of the satellite parameters degraded this reconstructed CO2 flux, so we chose to supply any missing data using statistical imputation. The pCO2 maps produced using this method also provide a confidence level of the reconstruction at each grid point. The results obtained are encouraging given the sparsity of available data, and we expect to be able to produce even more accurate reconstructions in coming years, given the predicted acquisition of new data.

Visible and Thermal Imaging of Sea Ice and Open Water from Coast Guard Arctic Domain Awareness Flights

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

dropsondes, micro- aircraft), cloud top/base heights Arctic Ocean Surface Temperature project Steele Buoy drops for SLP , SST, SSS, & surface velocity...Colón & Vancas (NIC) Drop buoys for SLP , temperature and surface velocity Waves & Fetch in the MIZ Thompson SWIFTS buoys measuring wave energy...Expendable CTD, AXCP= Air Expendable Current Profiler, SLP = Sea Level atmospheric Pressure, SST= Seas Surface Temperature, A/C= aircraft, FSD= Floe Size Distribution, SIC=Sea Ice Concentration

Summer Arctic sea ice character from satellite microwave data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carsey, F. D.

1985-01-01

It is pointed out that Arctic sea ice and its environment undergo a number of changes during the summer period. Some of these changes affect the ice cover properties and, in turn, their response to thermal and mechanical forcing throughout the year. The main objective of this investigation is related to the development of a method for estimating the areal coverage of exposed ice, melt ponds, and leads, which are the basic surface variables determining the local surface albedo. The study is based on data obtained in a field investigation conducted from Mould Bay (NWT), Nimbus 5 satellite data, and Seasat data. The investigation demonstrates that microwave data from satellites, especially microwave brightness temperature, provide good data for estimating important characteristics of summer sea ice cover.

Coast Salish and U.S. Geological Survey 2009 Tribal Journey water quality project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Akin, Sarah K.; Grossman, Eric E.

2010-01-01

The Salish Sea, contained within the United States and British Columbia, Canada, is the homeland of the Coast Salish Peoples and contains a diverse array of marine resources unique to this area that have sustained Coast Salish cultures and traditions for millennia. In July 2009, the Coast Salish People and U.S. Geological Survey conducted a second water quality study of the Salish Sea to examine spatial and temporal variability of environmental conditions of these surface waters as part of the annual Tribal Journey. Six canoes of approximately 100 towed multi parameter water-quality sondes as the Salish People traveled their ancestral waters during the middle of summer. Sea surface temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity were measured simultaneously at ten-second intervals, and more than 54,000 data points spanning 1,300 kilometers of the Salish Sea were collected. The project also synthesized Coast Salish ecological knowledge and culture with scientific monitoring to better understand and predict the response of coastal habitats and marine resources. Comparisons with data collected in 2008 reveal significantly higher mean surface-water temperatures in most subbasins in 2009 linked to record air temperatures that affected the Pacific Northwest in July 2009. Through large-scale spatial measurements collected each summer, the project helps to identify patterns in summer water quality, areas of water-quality impairment, and trends occurring through time.

A 28-ka history of sea surface temperature, primary productivity and planktonic community variability in the western Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmand, Ali; Marcantonio, Franco; Bianchi, Thomas S.; Canuel, Elizabeth A.; Waterson, Elizabeth J.

2007-12-01

Uranium series radionuclides and organic biomarkers, which represent major groups of planktonic organisms, were measured in western Arabian Sea sediments that span the past 28 ka. Variability in the past strength of the southwest and northeast monsoons and its influence on primary productivity, sea surface temperature (SST), and planktonic community structure were investigated. The average alkenone-derived SST for the last glacial period was ˜3°C lower than that measured for the Holocene. Prior to the deglacial, the lowest SSTs coincide with the highest measured fluxes of organic biomarkers, which represent primarily a planktonic suite of diatoms, coccolithophorids, dinoflagellates, and zooplankton. We propose that intensification of winter northeast monsoon winds during the last glacial period resulted in deep convective mixing, cold SSTs and enhanced primary productivity. In contrast, postdeglacial (<17 ka) SSTs are warmer during times in which biomarker fluxes are high. Associated with this transition is a planktonic community structure change, in which the ratio of the average cumulative flux of diatom biomarkers to the cumulative flux of coccolithophorid biomarkers is twice as high during the deglacial and Holocene than the average ratio during the last glacial period. We suggest that this temporal transition represents a shift from a winter northeast monsoon-dominated (pre-17 ka) to a summer southwest monsoon-dominated (post-17 ka) wind system.

Antarctic warming driven by internal Southern Ocean deep convection oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Torge; Pedro, Joel B.; Steig, Eric J.; Jochum, Markus; Park, Wonsun; Rasmussen, Sune O.

2016-04-01

Simulations with the free-running, complex coupled Kiel Climate Model (KCM) show that heat release associated with recurring Southern Ocean deep convection can drive centennial-scale Antarctic temperature variations of 0.5-2.0 °C. We propose a mechanism connecting the intrinsic ocean variability with Antarctic warming that involves the following three steps: Preconditioning: heat supplied by the lower branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) accumulates at depth in the Southern Ocean, trapped by the Weddell Gyre circulation; Convection onset: wind and/or sea-ice changes tip the preconditioned, thermally unstable system into the convective state; Antarctic warming: fast sea-ice-albedo feedbacks (on annual to decadal timescales) and slower Southern Ocean frontal and sea-surface temperature adjustments to the convective heat release (on multi-decadal to centennial timescales), drive an increase in atmospheric heat and moisture transport towards Antarctica resulting in warming over the continent. Further, we discuss the potential role of this mechanism to explain climate variability observed in Antarctic ice-core records.

A reconstruction of sea surface temperature variability in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 1734 to 2008 C.E. using cross-dated Sr/Ca records from the coral Siderastrea siderea

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeLong, Kristine L.; Maupin, Christopher R.; Flannery, Jennifer A.; Quinn, Terrence M.; Shen, CC

2014-01-01

This study uses skeletal variations in coral Sr/Ca from three Siderastrea siderea coral colonies within the Dry Tortugas National Park in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico (24°42′N, 82°48′W) to reconstruct monthly sea surface temperature (SST) variations from 1734 to 2008 Common Era (C.E.). Calibration and verification of the replicated coral Sr/Ca-SST reconstruction with local, regional, and historical temperature records reveals that this proxy-temperature relationship is stable back to 1879 C.E. The coral SST reconstruction contains robust interannual (~2.0°C) and multidecadal variability (~1.5°C) for the past 274 years, the latter of which does not covary with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Winter SST extremes are more variable than summer SST extremes (±2.2°C versus ±1.6°C, 2σ) suggesting that Loop Current transport in the winter dominates variability on interannual and longer time scales. Summer SST maxima are increasing (+1.0°C for 274 years, σMC = ±0.5°C, 2σ), whereas winter SST minima contain no significant trend. Colder decades (~1.5°C) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) do not coincide with decades of sunspot minima. The coral SST reconstruction contains similar variability to temperature reconstructions from the northern Gulf of Mexico (planktic foraminifer Mg/Ca) and the Caribbean Sea (coral Sr/Ca) suggesting areal reductions in the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool during the LIA. Mean summer coral SST extremes post-1985 C.E. (29.9°C) exceeds the long-term summer average (29.2°C for 1734–2008 C.E.), yet the warming trend after 1985 C.E. (0.04°C for 24 years, σMC = ±0.5, 2σ) is not significant, whereas Caribbean coral Sr/Ca studies contain a warming trend for this interval.

Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy K.

2017-03-01

In decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next decade. Predicting the climate system internal variability relies on initialising the climate model from observational estimates. We present a refined method of anomaly initialisation (AI) applied to the ocean and sea ice components of the global climate forecast model EC-Earth, with the following key innovations: (1) the use of a weight applied to the observed anomalies, in order to avoid the risk of introducing anomalies recorded in the observed climate, whose amplitude does not fit in the range of the internal variability generated by the model; (2) the AI of the ocean density, instead of calculating it from the anomaly initialised state of temperature and salinity. An experiment initialised with this refined AI method has been compared with a full field and standard AI experiment. Results show that the use of such refinements enhances the surface temperature skill over part of the North and South Atlantic, part of the South Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea for the first forecast year. However, part of such improvement is lost in the following forecast years. For the tropical Pacific surface temperature, the full field initialised experiment performs the best. The prediction of the Arctic sea-ice volume is improved by the refined AI method for the first three forecast years and the skill of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is significantly increased compared to a non-initialised forecast, along the whole forecast time.

Comparison of two Centennial-scale Sea Surface Temperature Datasets in the Regional Climate Change Studies of the China Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qingyuan, Wang; Yanan, Wang; Yiwei, Liu

2017-08-01

Two widely used sea surface temperature (SST) datasets are compared in this article. We examine characteristics in the climate variability of SST in the China Seas.Two series yielded almost the same warming trend for 1890-2013 (0.7-0.8°C/100 years). However, HadISST1 series shows much stronger warming trends during 1961-2013 and 1981-2013 than that of COBE SST2 series. The disagreement between data sets was marked after 1981. For the hiatus period 1998-2013, the cooling trends of HadISST1 series is much lower than that of COBE SST2. These differences between the two datasets are possibly caused by the different observations which are incorporated to fill with data-sparse regions since 1982. Those findings illustrate that there are some uncertainties in the estimate of SST warming patterns in certain regions. The results also indicate that the temporal and spatial deficiency of observed data is still the biggest handicap for analyzing multi-scale SST characteristics in regional area.

Mechanisms of interannual- to decadal-scale winter Labrador Sea ice variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Close, S.; Herbaut, C.; Houssais, M.-N.; Blaizot, A.-C.

2017-12-01

The variability of the winter sea ice cover of the Labrador Sea region and its links to atmospheric and oceanic forcing are investigated using observational data, a coupled ocean-sea ice model and a fully-coupled model simulation drawn from the CMIP5 archive. A consistent series of mechanisms associated with high sea ice cover are found amongst the various data sets. The highest values of sea ice area occur when the northern Labrador Sea is ice covered. This region is found to be primarily thermodynamically forced, contrasting with the dominance of mechanical forcing along the eastern coast of Baffin Island and Labrador, and the growth of sea ice is associated with anomalously fresh local ocean surface conditions. Positive fresh water anomalies are found to propagate to the region from a source area off the southeast Greenland coast with a 1 month transit time. These anomalies are associated with sea ice melt, driven by the enhanced offshore transport of sea ice in the source region, and its subsequent westward transport in the Irminger Current system. By combining sea ice transport through the Denmark Strait in the preceding autumn with the Greenland Blocking Index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, strong correlation with the Labrador Sea ice area of the following winter is obtained. This relationship represents a dependence on the availability of sea ice to be melted in the source region, the necessary atmospheric forcing to transport this offshore, and a further multidecadal-scale link with the large-scale sea surface temperature conditions.

Effects of Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Changes on the Global Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, K.; Liu, J.

2017-12-01

The roles of regional sea surface temperature (SST) variability on modulating the climate system and consequently the air quality are investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Idealized, spatially uniform SST anomalies of +/- 1 °C are superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian Oceans individually. Ignoring the response of natural emissions, our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability of surface O3 and PM2.5 concentrations in response to SST anomalies, especially during boreal summers. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv while increases the anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations from 0.5 to 3 µg m-3. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR) analysis in CESM and find that meteorological transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing air pollutant perturbations in most cases. During boreal summers, the increase in tropical SST over different ocean basins enhances deep convection, which significantly increases the air temperature over the upper troposphere and trigger large-scale subsidence over nearby and remote regions. These processes tend to increase tropospheric stability and suppress rainfall at lower mid-latitudes. Consequently, it reduces the vertical transport of O3 to the surface while facilitating the accumulation of PM2.5 concentrations over most regions. In addition, this regional SST warming may also considerably suppress intercontinental transport of air pollution as confirmed with idealized CO-like tracers. Our findings indicate a robust linkage between basin-scale SST variability and regional air quality, which can help local air quality management.

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Caminade, Cyril; Biasutti, Michela; Gaetani, Marco; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry; Xue, Yongkang;

Sea Temperature Fiducial Reference Measurements for the Validation and Data Gap Bridging of Satellite SST Data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wimmer, Werenfrid

2016-08-01

The Infrared Sea surface temperature Autonomous Radiometer (ISAR) was developed to provide reference data for the validation of satellite Sea Surface Temperature at the Skin interface (SSTskin) temperature data products, particularly the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR). Since March 2004 ISAR instruments have been deployed nearly continuously on ferries crossing the English Channel and the Bay of Biscay, between Portsmouth (UK) and Bilbao/Santander (Spain). The resulting twelve years of ISAR data, including an individual uncertainty estimate for each SST record, are calibrated with traceability to national standards (National Institute of Standards and Technology, USA (NIST) and National Physical Laboratory, Teddigton, UK (NPL), Fiducial Reference Measurements for satellite derived surface temperature product validation (FRM4STS)). They provide a unique independent in situ reference dataset against which to validate satellite derived products. We present results of the AATSR validation, and show the use of ISAR fiducial reference measurements as a common traceable validation data source for both AATSR and Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR). ISAR data were also used to review performance of the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analysis before and after the demise of ESA Environmental Satellite (Envisat) when AATSR inputs ceased This demonstrates use of the ISAR reference data set for validating the SST climatologies that will bridge the data gap between AATSR and SLSTR.

Diving Behaviors and Habitat Use of Adult Female Steller Sea Lion (Eumetopias jubatus), A Top Predator of the Bering Sea and North Pacific Ocean Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lander, M. E.; Fadely, B.; Gelatt, T.; Sterling, J.; Johnson, D.; Haulena, M.; McDermott, S.

2016-02-01

Decreased natality resulting from nutritional stress is one hypothesized mechanism for declines of Steller sea lions (SSLs; Eumetopias jubatus) in western Alaska, but little is known of the winter foraging habitats or behavior of adult females. To address this critical data need, adult female Steller sea lions were chemically immobilized and tagged with Fastloc® GPS satellite transmitters during the fall at Southeast Alaska (SEAK) during 2010 (n=3), and the central and western Aleutian Islands (AI) from 2011-2014 (n=9). To identify habitat features of biological importance to these animals, location data were processed with a continuous-time correlated random walk model and kernel density estimates of predicted locations were used to compute individual-based utilization distributions. Kernel density estimates and diving behaviors (i.e. mean, maximum, and frequency of dive depths) were examined with respect to a series of static and dynamic environmental variables using linear mixed-effects models. Habitat use varied within and among individuals, but overall, all response variables were significantly related to a combination of the predictor variables season, distance to nearest SSL site, bathymetric slope, on/off shelf, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, proportion of daylight, and some interaction effects (P≤0.05). The habitat use of SSL from SEAK was consistent with previous reports and reflected the seasonal distribution of predictable forage fish, whereas SSL from the AI used a variety of marine ecosystems and habitat use was more variable, likely reflecting specific prey behaviors encountered in different areas. These results have improved our understanding of the habitat features necessary for the conservation of adult female SSL and have been useful for reviewing designated critical habitat for Steller sea lions throughout the U.S. range.

Contrasting responses of the extended Gulf Stream to severe winter forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, Z.; Grist, J. P.; Marsh, R.; Josey, S. A.; Sinha, B.

2015-12-01

Changes in the path and strength of the extended Gulf Stream, downstream of Cape Hatteras, and the North Atlantic Current (GSNAC), are associated with strong wintertime air-sea interactions that can further influence the atmospheric storm track. The GSNAC response to anomalous air-sea heat fluxes in particular is dependent on the location of excess heat loss, in turn related to meteorological circumstances. Outbreaks of cold continental air may lead to excess cooling over the Sargasso Sea, as in 1976-77. Under these circumstances, the Gulf Stream may intensify through a steepening of cross-stream density gradients. An alternative scenario prevailed during the cold outbreak of 2013-14 where excess cooling occurred over the central subpolar gyre and may have influenced the extreme storminess experienced in western Europe. An objectively-analysed temperature and salinity product (EN4) is used to investigate the variability of the GSNAC. Temperature and salinity profiles are used to obtain geostrophic transport at selected GSNAC transects, confirming strong horizontal temperature gradients and a positive geostrophic velocity anomaly at 70oW in spring 1977, the strongest spring transport seen in the 1970s at this location. In addition to observations, an eddy-resolving model hindcast spanning 1970-2013, is used to further characterise GSNAC transport variability, allowing a fuller assessment of the relationship between the winter surface heat flux, end-of-winter mixed layer depth, subtropical mode water volume and GSNAC transports. Preliminary results reveal a significant negative correlation between the winter surface heat flux over the Sargasso Sea and the GSNAC transport in the following spring.

Snow depth evolution on sea ice from Snow Buoy measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolaus, M.; Arndt, S.; Hendricks, S.; Hoppmann, M.; Katlein, C.; König-Langlo, G.; Nicolaus, A.; Rossmann, H. L.; Schiller, M.; Schwegmann, S.; Langevin, D.

2016-12-01

Snow cover is an Essential Climate Variable. On sea ice, snow dominates the energy and momentum exchanges across the atmosphere-ice-ocean interfaces, and actively contributes to sea ice mass balance. Yet, snow depth on sea ice is one of the least known and most difficult to observe parameters of the Arctic and Antarctic; mainly due to its exceptionally high spatial and temporal variability. In this study; we present a unique time series dataset of snow depth and air temperature evolution on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice recorded by autonomous instruments. Snow Buoys record snow depth with four independent ultrasonic sensors, increasing the reliability of the measurements and allowing for additional analyses. Auxiliary measurements include surface and air temperature, barometric pressure and GPS position. 39 deployments of such Snow Buoys were achieved over the last three years either on drifting pack ice, on landfast sea ice or on an ice shelf. Here we highlight results from two pairs of Snow Buoys installed on drifting pack ice in the Weddell Sea. The data reveals large regional differences in the annual cycle of snow depth. Almost no reduction in snow depth (snow melt) was observed in the inner and southern part of the Weddell Sea, allowing a net snow accumulation of 0.2 to 0.9 m per year. In contrast, summer snow melt close to the ice edge resulted in a decrease of about 0.5 m during the summer 2015/16. Another array of eight Snow Buoys was installed on central Arctic sea ice in September 2015. Their air temperature record revealed exceptionally high air temperatures in the subsequent winter, even exceeding the melting point but with almost no impact on snow depth at that time. Future applications of Snow Buoys on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice will allow additional inter-annual studies of snow depth and snow processes, e.g. to support the development of snow depth data products from airborne and satellite data or though assimilation in numerical models.

Interannual-to-decadal air-sea interactions in the tropical Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Barradas, Alfredo

2001-09-01

The present research identifies modes of atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical Atlantic region and the mechanisms by which air-sea interactions influence the regional climate. Novelties of the present work are (1)the use of relevant ocean and atmosphere variables important to identity coupled variability in the system. (2)The use of new data sets, including realistic diabatic heating. (3)The study of interactions between ocean and atmosphere relevant at interannual-to-decadal time scales. Two tropical modes of variability are identified during the period 1958-1993, the Atlantic Niño mode and the Interhemispheric mode. Those modes have defined structures in both ocean and atmosphere. Anomalous sea surface temperatures and winds are associated to anomalous placement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). They develop maximum amplitude during boreal summer and spring, respectively. The anomalous positioning of the ITCZ produces anomalous precipitation in some places like Nordeste, Brazil and the Caribbean region. Through the use of a diagnostic primitive equation model, it is found that the most important terms controlling local anomalous surface winds over the ocean are boundary layer temperature gradients and diabatic heating anomalies at low levels (below 780 mb). The latter is of particular importance in the deep tropics in producing the anomalous meridional response to the surface circulation. Simulated latent heat anomalies indicate that a thermodynamic feedback establishes positive feedbacks at both sides of the equator and west of 20°W in the deep tropics and a negative feedback in front of the north west coast of Africa for the Interhemispheric mode. This thermodynamic feedback only establishes negative feedbacks for the Atlantic Niño mode. Transients establish some connection between the tropical Atlantic and other basins. Interhemispheric gradients of surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic influence winds in the midlatitude North Atlantic but winds and heating of the midlatitude North Atlantic have little impact on the deep tropics. The remote influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical Atlantic, similar to the Interhemispheric mode, is the result of two mechanisms triggered by anomalous warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific: enhancement of the Atlantic Walker circulation, and coupled intrusion of negative 200 mb geopotential height anomalies and negative sea level pressure anomalies that induce southwesterly surface wind anomalies in the northern tropical Atlantic.

Physical and biological forcing of mesoscale variability in the carbonate system of the Ross Sea (Antarctica) during summer 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivaro, Paola; Ianni, Carmela; Langone, Leonardo; Ori, Carlo; Aulicino, Giuseppe; Cotroneo, Yuri; Saggiomo, Maria; Mangoni, Olga

2017-02-01

Water samples (0-200 m) were collected in a coastal area of the Ross Sea in January 2014 to evaluate the physical and biological forcing on the carbonate system at the mesoscale (distance between stations of 5-10 km). Remote sensing supported the determination of the sampling strategy and helped positioning each sampling station. Total alkalinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, phytoplankton pigments and composition were investigated in combination with measurements of temperature, salinity and current speed. Total inorganic carbon, sea water CO2 partial pressure and the saturation state (Ω) for calcite and aragonite were calculated from the measured total alkalinity and pH. In addition, continuous measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration were completed. LADCP measurements revealed the presence of a significant change in current speed and direction that corresponded to a clearly defined front characterized by gradients in both temperature and salinity. Phytoplankton biomass was relatively high at all stations and the highest values of chlorophyll-a were found between 20 to 50 m, with the dominant taxonomic group being haptophyceae. The carbonate system properties in surface waters exhibited mesoscale variability with a horizontal length scale of about 10 km. Sea-ice melt, through the input of low salinity water, results in a dilution of the total alkalinity and inorganic carbon, but our observations suggest that phytoplankton activity was the major forcing of the distribution of the carbonate system variables. Higher CO3-, Ω and pH in the surface layer were found where the highest values of chlorophyll-a were observed. The calculated ΔpCO2 pattern follows both MODIS data and in situ chlorophyll-a measurements, and the estimated CO2 fluxes ranged from -0.5 ± 0.4 to -31.0 ± 6.4 mmol m- 2 d- 1. The large range observed in the fluxes is due to both the spatial variability of sea water pCO2 and to the episodic winds experienced.

Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys Coordination

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

profiler (AXCP) ocean velocity shear (Morison), UpTempO buoy measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level atmospheric pressure ( SLP ), and...and prediction…. Steele UpTempO buoy drops for SLP , SST, SSS, & surface velocity Visible and Thermal Images of the SIZ from the Coast Guard...Expendable CTD, AXCP= Air Expendable Current Profiler, SLP = Sea Level atmospheric Pressure, SST= Seas Surface Temperature, A/C= aircraft, SIC=Sea Ice

Impact of Seawater Nonlinearities on Nordic Seas Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helber, R. W.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Shriver, J. F.

2017-12-01

The Nordic Seas (Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian Seas) form an ocean basin important for Arctic-mid-latitude climate linkages. Cold fresh water from the Arctic Ocean and warm salty water from the North Atlantic Ocean meet in the Nordic Seas, where a delicate balance between temperature and salinity variability results in deep water formation. Seawater non-linearities are stronger at low temperatures and salinities making high-latitude oceans highly subject to thermbaricity and cabbeling. This presentation highlights and quantifies the impact of seawater non-linearities on the Nordic Seas circulation. We use two layered ocean circulation models, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYOCM) and the Modular Ocean Model version 6 (MOM6), that enable accurate representation of processes along and across density or neutral density surfaces. Different equations-of-state and vertical coordinates are evaluated to clarify the impact of seawater non-linearities. Present Navy systems, however, do not capture some features in the Nrodic Seas vertical structure. For example, observations from the Greenland Sea reveal a subsurface temperature maximum that deepens from approximately 1500 m during 1998 to 1800 m during 2005. We demonstrate that in terms of density, salinity is the largest source of error in Nordic Seas Navy forecasts, regional scale models can represent mesoscale features driven by thermobaricity, vertical coordinates are a critical issue in Nordic Sea circulation modeling.

The effect of changes in sea surface temperature on linear growth of Porites coral in Ambon Bay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corvianawatie, Corry, E-mail: corvianawatie@students.itb.ac.id; Putri, Mutiara R., E-mail: mutiara.putri@fitb.itb.ac.id; Cahyarini, Sri Y., E-mail: yuda@geotek.lipi.go.id

Coral is one of the most important organisms in the coral reef ecosystem. There are several factors affecting coral growth, one of them is changes in sea surface temperature (SST). The purpose of this research is to understand the influence of SST variability on the annual linear growth of Porites coral taken from Ambon Bay. The annual coral linear growth was calculated and compared to the annual SST from the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST v3b) model. Coral growth was calculated by using Coral X-radiograph Density System (CoralXDS) software. Coral sample X-radiographs were used as input data.more » Chronology was developed by calculating the coral’s annual growth bands. A pair of high and low density banding patterns observed in the coral’s X-radiograph represent one year of coral growth. The results of this study shows that Porites coral extents from 2001-2009 and had an average growth rate of 1.46 cm/year. Statistical analysis shows that the annual coral linear growth declined by 0.015 cm/year while the annual SST declined by 0.013°C/year. SST and the annual linear growth of Porites coral in the Ambon Bay is insignificantly correlated with r=0.304 (n=9, p>0.05). This indicates that annual SST variability does not significantly influence the linear growth of Porites coral from Ambon Bay. It is suggested that sedimentation load, salinity, pH or other environmental factors may affect annual linear coral growth.« less

Toward a Reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Using Shell-based Records from Coastal Northern Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mette, M.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Carroll, M.; Ambrose, W. G., Jr.; Retelle, M.

2016-02-01

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures over the past 150 years have exhibited multidecadal variability, switching between relatively warm and cool periods, described by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The influence, persistence, and causes of the AMO, however, are debated because instrumental records of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures only capture 2 cycles of this 60 to 80 year mode. Thus far, AMO reconstructions have been largely based on terrestrial archives despite the fact that the AMO is an oceanic mode. Proxy records from the marine realm are therefore necessary to better understand the behavior of the AMO over recent centuries. We present continuous, annual shell-based records of oxygen isotopes and growth from the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica from coastal northern Norway (71 °N) from 1900-2012 that strongly relate to the instrumental AMO record (r = -0.59, p < 0.01). We performed calibration/verification analysis in order to assess the potential for these records to contribute to AMO reconstructions. We also compare our record with other proxy reconstructions of AMO variability over the past century. Our results show that extending shell-based records to past centuries will provide valuable information about AMO variability.

Satellite evidence of the movement of a harmful algal bloom (HAB) and the related oceanographic features in the Bohai Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, D. L.; Kawamura, H.; Oh, I. S.; Baker, Joe

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are truly global marine phenomena of increasing significance. Many HAB occurrences may have been not recorded because of their high spatial and temporal variability and of their advection, once formed, by surface currents. A serious HAB occurred in the Bohai Sea in autumn 1998, dominated by the species Ceratium furca sp, causing the largest fisheries economic loss recorded in that region. The present study traced the formation and advection of that HAB in September 1998 in the northern Bohai Sea by satellite SeaWiFS ocean color data and correlated the spatial and temporal changes with oceanographic data. The results show that the bloom originated in the coastal water in the west of the Bohai Sea in early September when sea surface temperature increased to 25-26 °C. The bloom biomass was shifted southeastward and intensified around the center portion of the sea in the mid September. The bloom covered an area of 60 x 65 km^2 with high Chl-a concentration (6.5 mg m-3) in the bloom center. At the end of September, the bloom decayed in the eastern Bohai Sea when water temperature decreased to 22-23 °C. Northeasterly winds were recorded in August and September, and northwesterly winds in late September, October and November. The HAB may have been initiated by a combination of the nutrients from river discharges in the coastal waters of the west of the Bohai Sea and the increase of water temperature; it may have been then advected eastward by the northern Bohai Sea circulation enhanced by northwesterly winds in late September-early October.

Wind-driven Ocean Circulation and the Spatial-temporal Variability of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, North Eastern Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapa, C.; Beier, E.; Durazo, R.; Martin Hernandez-Ayon, J. M.; Alin, S. R.; Lopez-Perez, A.

2016-12-01

The relationship between the surface enrichment of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and wind variability and circulation in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (GT) was examined from satellite images and in situ data from three cruises (June 2010; April and November 2013). Monthly mean wind climatologies (and derived variables), sea surface temperature and sea surface height anomaly fields were analyzed in the GT and part of the NETP. Signal decomposition according to circulation scales (seasonal, inter-annual, mesoscale) was performed using harmonic analysis for the seasonal components, and empirical orthogonal functions for the residuals, applied to satellite sea-level anomaly data. The results show that wind is the main driving force of the variability in the GT. Mesoscale is the variable with the highest percent of local variance (25-75%), due mainly to mesoscale eddies, followed by seasonality (20-55%), and finally the inter-annual signal (10-30%), dominated by ENSO. Mesoscale and seasonality prevailed during the samplings. The changes in circulation led to variations in the concentration of surface DIC ranging between 100 and 300 µmol kg-1 (436 µatm) due to Ekman pumping. The largest enrichment occurred in November 2013 after a strong northerly wind event. However, the predominance of mesoscale events suggests that changes in dissolved inorganic carbon resulting from mesoscale- derived Ekman pumping may become important in the long term and with a larger spatial and temporal coverage. The results suggest that the seasonal cycle of dissolved inorganic carbon may be linked to wind seasonality.

Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Gardner, Beth; Gilbert, Andrew T.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Royle, J. Andrew; Silverman, Emily D.

2010-01-01

Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species-habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate change on seabirds.

Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics.

PubMed

Zipkin, Elise F; Gardner, Beth; Gilbert, Andrew T; O'Connell, Allan F; Royle, J Andrew; Silverman, Emily D

2010-08-01

Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species-habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate change on seabirds.

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-01-01

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

USGS Publications Warehouse

Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2009-01-01

Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

Surface Emissivity Effects on Thermodynamic Retrieval of IR Spectral Radiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Daniel K.; Larar, Allen M.; Smith, William L.; Liu, Xu

2006-01-01

The surface emissivity effect on the thermodynamic parameters (e.g., the surface skin temperature, atmospheric temperature, and moisture) retrieved from satellite infrared (IR) spectral radiance is studied. Simulation analysis demonstrates that surface emissivity plays an important role in retrieval of surface skin temperature and terrestrial boundary layer (TBL) moisture. NAST-I ultraspectral data collected during the CLAMS field campaign are used to retrieve thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere and surface. The retrievals are then validated by coincident in-situ measurements, such as sea surface temperature, radiosonde temperature and moisture profiles. Retrieved surface emissivity is also validated by that computed from the observed radiance and calculated emissions based on the retrievals of surface temperature and atmospheric profiles. In addition, retrieved surface skin temperature and emissivity are validated together by radiance comparison between the observation and retrieval-based calculation in the window region where atmospheric contribution is minimized. Both simulation and validation results have lead to the conclusion that variable surface emissivity in the inversion process is needed to obtain accurate retrievals from satellite IR spectral radiance measurements. Retrieval examples are presented to reveal that surface emissivity plays a significant role in retrieving accurate surface skin temperature and TBL thermodynamic parameters.

Effect of ENSO on the variability of SST and Chlorophyll-a in Java Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wirasatriya, Anindya; Prasetyawan, Indra B.; Triyono, Chandra D.; Muslim; Maslukah, Lilik

2018-02-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) are two parameters often used for identifying the marine productivity. Located at the maritime continent, the variability of SST and Chl-a in the Indonesian seas is influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The previous studies showed that the effect of El Niño tend to decrease SST and increase Chl-a in the areas within the Indonesian seas. Using long time observation of satellite data (2003-2016), it was found different result in Java Sea. Since Java Sea has strong seasonal variability influenced by monsoon wind, the effect of ENSO depend on the season. During southeast monsoon season, El Niño (La Niña) tend to increase (decrease) the speed of southeasterly wind cause the decrease or increase of SST. On the contrary, during northwest monsoon season, El Niño (La Niña) tend to decrease (increase) the speed of northwesterly wind cause the increase (decrease) of SST. The dependence of Chl-a on wind speed is only observed in the off shore which exhibit the strong seasonal variation. However, the effect of ENSO on the variability of Chl-a is not robust since the effected amplitude is less than the RMSE of Chl-a data.

Greenhouse warming, decadal variability, or El Nino? An attempt to understand the anomalous 1990s

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Latif, M.; Eckert, C.; Kleeman, R.

The dominant variability modes in the Tropics are investigated and contrasted with the anomalous situation observed during the last few years. The prime quantity analyzed is anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) in the region 30{degrees}S-60{degrees}N. Additionally, observed tropical surface wind stress fields were investigated. Further tropical atmospheric information was derived from a multidecadal run with an atmospheric general circulation model that was forced by the same SSTs. The tropical SST variability can be characterized by three modes: an interannual mode [the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)], a decadal mode, and a trend or unresolved ultra-low-frequency variability. 48 refs., 20 figs.

Seasonally Distinct Reconstructions of Northern Alaskan Temperature Variability Since the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longo, W. M.; Crowther, J.; Daniels, W.; Russell, J. M.; Giblin, A. E.; Morrill, C.; Zhang, X.; Wang, X.; Huang, Y.

2015-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions have provided little consensus on how continental temperatures in Eastern Beringia changed from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present. Reconstructions show regional differences in LGM severity, the timing of deglacial warming, and Holocene temperature variability. Currently, arctic temperatures are increasing at the fastest rates on the planet, highlighting the need to identify the sensitivities of arctic systems to various climate forcings. This cannot be done without resolving the complex climate history of Eastern Beringia. Here, we present two new organic geochemical temperature reconstructions from Lake E5, north central Alaska that span the LGM, last glacial termination and Holocene. The proxies (alkenones and brGDGTs) record seasonally distinct temperatures, allowing for the attribution of different forcings to each proxy. The alkenone-based UK37 reconstruction records spring/early summer lake temperatures and indicates a 4 oC abrupt warming at 13.1 ka and a relatively warm late Holocene, which peaks at 2.4 ka and exhibits a cooling trend from 2.4 to 0.1 ka. The brGDGT reconstruction is calibrated to mean annual air temperature and interpreted here as exhibiting a strong warm season bias. BrGDGTs show an abrupt 4.5 oC warming at 14 ka, and show evidence for an early Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), which cools by 3 oC after 8.4 ka. Because UK37 temperatures do not exhibit an early HTM, we hypothesize that summer insolation had a minimal effect on spring/early summer lake temperatures. Instead, the UK37 reconstruction agrees with sea ice and sea surface temperature reconstructions from the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and northeast Pacific Ocean. We hypothesize that forcings associated with sea ice concentration and changes in atmospheric circulation had stronger affects on spring/early summer lake temperatures and we present modern observational data in support of this hypothesis. By contrast, the summer-biased brGDGT reconstruction suggests a strong and relatively direct temperature response to summer insolation forcing. Together, these records suggest that both internal and external forcings significantly affected LGM to present temperature variability in Eastern Beringia, with different seasonal biases.

Neural Network Technique for Global Ocean Color (Chl-a) Estimates Bridging Multiple Satellite Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garraffo, Z. D.; Nadiga, S.; Krasnopolsky, V.; Mehra, A.; Bayler, E. J.; Kim, H. C.; Behringer, D.

2016-02-01

A Neural Network (NN) technique is used to produce consistent global ocean color estimates, bridging multiple satellite ocean color missions by linking ocean color variability - primarily driven by biological processes - with the physical processes of the upper ocean. Satellite-derived surface variables - sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface height (SSH) fields - are used as signatures of upper-ocean dynamics. The NN technique employs adaptive weights that are tuned by applying statistical learning (training) algorithms to past data sets, providing robustness with respect to random noise, accuracy, fast emulations, and fault-tolerance. This study employs Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) chlorophyll-a data for 1998-2010 in conjunction with satellite SSH and SST fields. After interpolating all data sets to the same two-degree latitude-longitude grid, the annual mean was removed and monthly anomalies extracted . The NN technique wass trained for even years of that period and tested for errors and bias for the odd years. The NN output are assessed for: (i) bias, (ii) variability, (iii) root-mean-square error (RMSE), and (iv) cross-correlation. A Jacobian is evaluated to estimate the impact of each input (SSH, SST) on the NN chlorophyll-a estimates. The differences between an ensemble of NNs vs a single NN are examined. After the NN is trained for the SeaWiFS period, the NN is then applied and validated for 2005-2015, a period covered by other satellite missions — the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS AQUA) and the Visible Imaging Infrared Radiometer Suite (VIIRS).

Observed seasonal and interannual variability of the near-surface thermal structure of the Arabian Sea Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, R. R.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

2017-06-01

The observed seasonal and interannual variability of near-surface thermal structure of the Arabian Sea Warm Pool (ASWP) is examined utilizing a reanalysis data set for the period 1990-2008. During a year, the ASWP progressively builds from February, reaches its peak by May only in the topmost 60 m water column. The ASWP Index showed a strong seasonal cycle with distinct interannual signatures. The years with higher (lower) sea surface temperature (SST) and larger (smaller) spatial extent are termed as strong (weak) ASWP years. The differences in the magnitude and spatial extent of thermal structure between the strong and weak ASWP regimes are seen more prominently in the topmost 40 m water column. The heat content values with respect to 28 °C isotherm (HC28) are relatively higher (lower) during strong (weak) ASWP years. Even the secondary peak in HC28 seen during the preceding November-December showed higher (lower) magnitude during the strong ASWP (weak) years. The influence of the observed variability in the surface wind field, surface net air-sea heat flux, near-surface mixed layer thickness, sea surface height (SSH) anomaly, depth of 20 °C isotherm and barrier layer thickness is examined to explain the observed differences in the near-surface thermal structure of the ASWP between strong and weak regimes. The surface wind speed is much weaker in particular during the preceding October and February-March corresponding to the strong ASWP years when compared to those of the weak ASWP years implying its important role. Both stronger winter cooling during weak ASWP years and stronger pre-monsoon heating during strong ASWP years through the surface air-sea heat fluxes contribute to the observed sharp contrast in the magnitudes of both the regimes of the ASWP. The upwelling Rossby wave during the preceding summer monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons is stronger corresponding to the weak ASWP regime when compared to the strong ASWP regime resulting in greater cooling of the near-surface layers during the summer monsoon season of the preceding year. On the other hand, the downwelling Rossby wave is stronger during pre-monsoon months during the strong ASWP regime when compared to weak ASWP regime leading to lesser cooling during strong ASWP regime.

Local Effects of Ice Floes on Skin Sea Surface Temperature in the Marginal Ice Zone from UAVs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zappa, C. J.; Brown, S.; Emery, W. J.; Adler, J.; Wick, G. A.; Steele, M.; Palo, S. E.; Walker, G.; Maslanik, J. A.

2013-12-01

Recent years have seen extreme changes in the Arctic. Particularly striking are changes within the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean, and especially in the seas north of the Alaskan coast. These areas have experienced record warming, reduced sea ice extent, and loss of ice in areas that had been ice-covered throughout human memory. Even the oldest and thickest ice types have failed to survive through the summer melt period in areas such as the Beaufort Sea and Canada Basin, and fundamental changes in ocean conditions such as earlier phytoplankton blooms may be underway. Marginal ice zones (MIZ), or areas where the "ice-albedo feedback" driven by solar warming is highest and ice melt is extensive, may provide insights into the extent of these changes. Airborne remote sensing, in particular InfraRed (IR), offers a unique opportunity to observe physical processes at sea-ice margins. It permits monitoring the ice extent and coverage, as well as the ice and ocean temperature variability. It can also be used for derivation of surface flow field allowing investigation of turbulence and mixing at the ice-ocean interface. Here, we present measurements of visible and IR imagery of melting ice floes in the marginal ice zone north of Oliktok Point AK in the Beaufort Sea made during the Marginal Ice Zone Ocean and Ice Observations and Processes EXperiment (MIZOPEX) in July-August 2013. The visible and IR imagery were taken from the unmanned airborne vehicle (UAV) ScanEagle. The visible imagery clearly defines the scale of the ice floes. The IR imagery show distinct cooling of the skin sea surface temperature (SST) as well as a intricate circulation and mixing pattern that depends on the surface current, wind speed, and near-surface vertical temperature/salinity structure. Individual ice floes develop turbulent wakes as they drift and cause transient mixing of an influx of colder surface (fresh) melt water. The upstream side of the ice floe shows the coldest skin SST, and downstream the skin SST is mixed within the turbulent wake over 10s of meters. We compare the structure of circulation and mixing of the influx of cold skin SST driven by surface currents and wind. In-situ temperature measurements provide the context for the vertical structure of the mixing and its impact on the skin SST. Furthermore, comparisons to satellite-derived sea surface temperature of the region are presented. The accuracy of satellite derived SST products and how well the observed skin SSTs represent ocean bulk temperatures in polar regions is not well understood, due in part to lack of observations. Estimated error in the polar seas is relatively high at up to 0.4 deg. C compared to less than 0.2 deg. C for other areas. The goal of these and future analyses of the MIZOPEX data set is to elucidate a basic question that is significant for the entire Earth system. Have these regions passed a tipping point, such that they are now essentially acting as sub-Arctic seas where ice disappears in summer, or instead whether the changes are transient, with the potential for the ice pack to recover?

Early 20th Century Arctic Warming Intensified by Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokinaga, H.; Xie, S. P.; Mukougawa, H.

2017-12-01

We investigate the influence of Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability on the Arctic temperature, with a particular focus on the early 20th century Arctic warming. Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing than at present. We find that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability is the major driver for the early 20th century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early Arctic warming is associated with the cold-to-warm phase shifts of Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variability modes, a SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal and Atlantic multidecadal oscillations. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air to the North American Arctic. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, cold-to-warm phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

Environmental Variability in the Florida Keys: Impacts on Coral Reef Resilience and Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soto, I. M.; Muller-Karger, F. E.

2005-12-01

Environmental variability contributes to both mass mortality and resilience in tropical coral reef communities. We assess variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean color in the Florida Keys using satellite imagery, and provide insight into how this variability is associated with locations of resilient coral communities (those unaffected by or able to recover from major events). The project tests the hypothesis that areas with historically low environmental variability promote lower levels of coral reef resilience. Time series of SST from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors and ocean color derived quantities (e.g., turbidity and chlorophyll) from the Sea-viewing Wide Field of View Sensor (SeaWiFS) are being constructed over the entire Florida Keys region for a period of twelve and nine years, respectively. These data will be compared with historical coral cover data derived from Landsat imagery (1984-2002). Improved understanding of the causes of coral reef decline or resilience will help protect and manage these natural treasures.

Changing Seasonality of Tundra Vegetation and Associated Climatic Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Bieniek, P.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J.; Tucker, C. J.; Steele, M.; Ermold, W. S.; Zhang, J.

2014-12-01

This study documents changes in the seasonality of tundra vegetation productivity and its associated climate variables using long-term data sets. An overall increase of Pan-Arctic tundra greenness potential corresponds to increased land surface temperatures and declining sea ice concentrations. While sea ice has continued to decline, summer land surface temperature and vegetation productivity increases have stalled during the last decade in parts of the Arctic. To understand the processes behind these features we investigate additional climate parameters. This study employs remotely sensed weekly 25-km sea ice concentration, weekly surface temperature, and bi-weekly NDVI from 1982 to 2013. Maximum NDVI (MaxNDVI, Maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), Time Integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI), Summer Warmth Index (SWI, sum of degree months above freezing during May-August), ocean heat content (PIOMAS, model incorporating ocean data assimilation), and snow water equivalent (GlobSnow, assimilated snow data set) are explored. We analyzed the data for the full period (1982-2013) and for two sub-periods (1982-1998 and 1999-2013), which were chosen based on the declining Pan-Arctic SWI since 1998. MaxNDVI has increased from 1982-2013 over most of the Arctic but has declined from 1999 to 2013 over western Eurasia, northern Canada, and southwest Alaska. TI-NDVI has trends that are similar to those for MaxNDVI for the full period but displays widespread declines over the 1999-2013 period. Therefore, as the MaxNDVI has continued to increase overall for the Arctic, TI-NDVI has been declining since 1999. SWI has large relative increases over the 1982-2013 period in eastern Canada and Greenland and strong declines in western Eurasia and southern Canadian tundra. Weekly Pan-Arctic tundra land surface temperatures warmed throughout the summer during the 1982-1998 period but display midsummer declines from 1999-2013. Weekly snow water equivalent over Arctic tundra has declined over most seasons but shows slight increases in spring in North America and during fall over Eurasia. Later spring or earlier fall snow cover can both lead to reductions in TI-NDVI. The time-varying spatial patterns of NDVI trends can be largely explained using either snow cover or land surface temperature trends.

Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2017-05-01

While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the trade winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational data sets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends.