Effect of Dynamic Sector Boundary Changes on Air Traffic Controllers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Jaewoo; Lee, Paul; Kessell, Angela; Homola, Jeff; Zelinski, Shannon

2010-01-01

The effect of dynamic sector boundary changes on air traffic controller workload was investigated with data from a human-in-the-loop simulation. Multiple boundary changes were made during simulated operations, and controller rating of workload was recorded. Analysis of these data showed an increase of 16.9% in controller workload due to boundary changes. This increased workload was correlated with the number of aircraft handoffs and change in sector volume. There was also a 12.7% increase in average workload due to the changed sector design after boundary changes. This increase was correlated to traffic flow crossing points getting closer to sector boundaries and an increase in the number of flights with short dwell time in a sector. This study has identified some of the factors that affect controller workload when sector boundaries are changed, but more research is needed to better understand their relationships.

Three-Dimensional Numerical Simulations of Equatorial Spread F: Results and Observations in the Pacific Sector

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aveiro, H. C.; Hysell, D. L.; Caton, R. G.; Groves, K. M.; Klenzing, J.; Pfaff, R. F.; Stoneback, R.; Heelis, R. A.

2012-01-01

A three-dimensional numerical simulation of plasma density irregularities in the postsunset equatorial F region ionosphere leading to equatorial spread F (ESF) is described. The simulation evolves under realistic background conditions including bottomside plasma shear flow and vertical current. It also incorporates C/NOFS satellite data which partially specify the forcing. A combination of generalized Rayleigh-Taylor instability (GRT) and collisional shear instability (CSI) produces growing waveforms with key features that agree with C/NOFS satellite and ALTAIR radar observations in the Pacific sector, including features such as gross morphology and rates of development. The transient response of CSI is consistent with the observation of bottomside waves with wavelengths close to 30 km, whereas the steady state behavior of the combined instability can account for the 100+ km wavelength waves that predominate in the F region.

Water scarcity and economic damage in Europe: regionally relevant simulations from 2000 to 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; de Roo, Ad; Bisselink, Bernard; Gelati, Emiliano; Karssenberg, Derek; de Jong, Steven

2017-04-01

Water availability is unequally distributed across Europe. Where certain regions experience a surplus of water, other areas have limited water availability which causes economic damage to the water using sectors such as households, industries or agriculture. Future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions are expected to further increase the competition for available water that is already present in Europe. This means there is an increasing need for models that are able to simulate this multi-sectorial system of water availability and demand and incorporate the socio-economic component required for robust decisions and policy support. We present our modelling study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water scarcity and economic damage simulations. First we developed regionally relevant pan-European water demand simulations for the household and industry sector from 2000 up to 2050. For the household sector we developed a model to simulate water use based on water price, income and several other relevant variables at NUTS-3 level (over 1200 regions in Europe). Alternatively, we modelled industrial water use based on regionally downscaled water productivity values at the national level for ten sub-sections of the NACE (Nomenclature of Economic Activities) classification for economic activities. Subsequently we used scenario projections of our explanatory variables to make scenario simulations of water demand from 2000 up to 2050 at pan-European scale with unprecedented spatial and sub-sectorial detail. In order to analyze the European water use system we integrated these water demand scenarios into the hydrological rainfall-runoff model called LISFLOOD (Distributed Water Balance and Flood Simulation Model), which incorporates a vegetation module for the simulation of crop yield and irrigation water demand of the agriculture sector. We simulated river discharge and groundwater availability for abstractions of water using sectors across Europe from 2000 up to 2050 at 5km grid level for multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios. This allowed us to identify regions with water scarcity problems from the recent past up to 2050 and quantify the economic damage that can be attributed to the limited water availability. Results showed several regions where substantially more water is extracted from the system than what would be sustainable into the future. Furthermore, we analyzed how changing water prices or relocation of economic activities could reduce future water scarcity problems and decrease the related economical damage. We found that for some regions, relatively small measurers already could have a positive impact on water scarcity problems.

Constraining the hadronic spectrum through QCD thermodynamics on the lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alba, Paolo; Bellwied, Rene; Borsányi, Szabolcs; Fodor, Zoltan; Günther, Jana; Katz, Sandor D.; Mantovani Sarti, Valentina; Noronha-Hostler, Jacquelyn; Parotto, Paolo; Pasztor, Attila; Vazquez, Israel Portillo; Ratti, Claudia

2017-08-01

Fluctuations of conserved charges allow us to study the chemical composition of hadronic matter. A comparison between lattice simulations and the hadron resonance gas (HRG) model suggested the existence of missing strange resonances. To clarify this issue we calculate the partial pressures of mesons and baryons with different strangeness quantum numbers using lattice simulations in the confined phase of QCD. In order to make this calculation feasible, we perform simulations at imaginary strangeness chemical potentials. We systematically study the effect of different hadronic spectra on thermodynamic observables in the HRG model and compare to lattice QCD results. We show that, for each hadronic sector, the well-established states are not enough in order to have agreement with the lattice results. Additional states, either listed in the Particle Data Group booklet (PDG) but not well established, or predicted by the quark model (QM), are necessary in order to reproduce the lattice data. For mesons, it appears that the PDG and the quark model do not list enough strange mesons, or that, in this sector, interactions beyond those included in the HRG model are needed to reproduce the lattice QCD results.

The Variability and Intermittency of Wind and Solar Power Can Be Overcome Without Storage By Using the National Energy With Weather System (NEWS) Simulator To Design A National US Electric (and Energy) Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clack, C.; MacDonald, A. E.; Wilczak, J. M.; Alexander, A.; Dunbar, A. D.; Xie, Y.; Picciano, P.; Paine, J.; Terry, L.; Marquis, M.

2015-12-01

The importance of weather-driven renewable energies for the United States energy portfolio is growing. The main perceived problems with weather-driven renewable energies are their intermittent nature, low power density, and high costs. The Cooperative Institute for the Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado collaborated with the Earth Systems Research Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to construct a mathematical optimization of a reduced form of the US electric sector. Care was taken to retain salient features of the electric sector, while allowing for detailed weather and power data to be incorporated for wind and solar energies. The National Energy with Weather System (NEWS) simulator was created. With the NEWS simulator tests can be performed that are unique and insightful. The simulator can maintain the status quo and build out a system following costs or imposed targets for carbon dioxide emission reductions. It can find the least cost electric sector for each state, or find a national power system that incorporates vast amounts of variable generation. In the current presentation, we will focus on one of the most unique aspects of the NEWS simulator; the ability to specify a specific amount of wind and/or solar each hour for a three-year historical period for the least total cost. The simulator can find where to place wind and solar to reduce variability (ramping requirements for back-up generators). The amount of variable generation each hour is very different to an RPS type standard because the generators need to work in concert for long periods of time. The results indicate that for very similar costs the amount of back-up generation (natural gas or storage) can be reduced significantly.

Analysis of Different Cost Functions in the Geosect Airspace Partitioning Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, Gregory L.

2010-01-01

A new cost function representing air traffic controller workload is implemented in the Geosect airspace partitioning tool. Geosect currently uses a combination of aircraft count and dwell time to select optimal airspace partitions that balance controller workload. This is referred to as the aircraft count/dwell time hybrid cost function. The new cost function is based on Simplified Dynamic Density, a measure of different aspects of air traffic controller workload. Three sectorizations are compared. These are the current sectorization, Geosect's sectorization based on the aircraft count/dwell time hybrid cost function, and Geosect s sectorization based on the Simplified Dynamic Density cost function. Each sectorization is evaluated for maximum and average workload along with workload balance using the Simplified Dynamic Density as the workload measure. In addition, the Airspace Concept Evaluation System, a nationwide air traffic simulator, is used to determine the capacity and delay incurred by each sectorization. The sectorization resulting from the Simplified Dynamic Density cost function had a lower maximum workload measure than the other sectorizations, and the sectorization based on the combination of aircraft count and dwell time did a better job of balancing workload and balancing capacity. However, the current sectorization had the lowest average workload, highest sector capacity, and the least system delay.

Dynamic Angular Control Of Thermal Therapy With Stationary Multi-Sectored Tubular Ultrasound Applicators Under MR Temperature Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinsey, Adam M.; Diederich, Chris J.; Nau, William H.; Ross, Anthony B.; Butts Pauly, Kim; Rieke, Viola; Sommer, Graham

2006-05-01

Multi-sectored ultrasound heating applicators with dynamic angular and longitudinal control of heating profiles are being investigated for the thermal treatment of tumors in sites such as prostate, uterus, and brain. Multi-sectored tubular ultrasound transducers with independent sector power control were incorporated into interstitial and transurethral applicators and provided dynamic angular control of a heating pattern without requiring device manipulation during treatment. Acoustic beam measurements of each applicator type demonstrated a 35-40° acoustic dead zone between each independent sector, with negligible mechanical or electrical coupling. Despite the acoustic dead zone between sectors, simulations and experiments under MR temperature (MRT) monitoring showed that the variance from the maximum lesion radius (scalloping) with all elements activated on a transducer was minimal and did not affect conformal heating of a target area. A biothermal model with a multi-point controller was used to adjust the applied power and treatment time of individual transducer segments as the tissue temperature changed in simulations of thermal lesions with both interstitial and transurethral applicators. Transurethral ultrasound applicators for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) treatment with either three or four sectors conformed a thermal dose to a simulated target area in the angular and radial dimensions. The simulated treatment was controlled to a maximum temperature of 85°C, and had a maximum duration of 5 min when power was turned off as the 52°C temperature contour reach a predetermined control point for each sector in the tissue. Experiments conducted with multi-sectored applicators under MRT monitoring showed thermal ablation and hyperthermia treatments had little or no border `scalloping', conformed to a pretreatment target area, and correlated very well with the simulated thermal lesions. The radial penetration of the heat treatments in tissue with interstitial (1.5-1.8 mm OD transducer) and transurethral (2.5-4.0 mm OD transducer) applicators was at least 1.5 cm and 2.0 cm, respectively, for a treatment duration of 10 min. Angular control of thermal ablation and hyperthermia therapy often relies upon non-adjustable angular power deposition patterns and/or mechanical manipulation of the heating device. The multi-sectored ultrasound applicators developed in this study provide dynamic control of the angular heating distribution during treatment without device manipulation and maintain previously reported heating penetration and spatial control characteristics of similar ultrasound devices.

Simulating the potential for Carbon Dioxide (CO2) reduction by the application of environmentally friendly transportation (case study: Gatot Subroto Street, Medan City)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryati, Isra; Turmuzi Lubis, Muhammad; Mawaddah, Nurul

2018-03-01

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is one of the greenhouse gases. One source of greenhouse gases comes from the use of fossil fuels from the transport sector. The transportation sector is one of the dominant sectors in contributing to the greenhouse effect. This study aims to calculate the amount of CO2 from transportation activities by using mobile six equations in Gatot Subroto Street, Medan City. A sampling of CO2 concentration was done using Carbon Dioxide Monitor with Non-Dispersive Infra Red (NDIR) Analyzer method. Also, a simulation of the reduction of the number of private vehicles to mass transportation such as BRT gas-fired. The results showed CO2 emissions calculations with mobile six ranged from 47.2 kg CO2 - 978.2 kg CO2. Meanwhile, measurements range from 3,004 ppm - 3,405 ppm. Implementation of the concept of environmentally friendly transportation such as BRT in Gatot Subroto Street, Medan City will be able to reduce the average emissions load CO2 by 42.75% -78.80%. Based on the calculation simulation in this study is estimated the number of BRT required approximately 71 units.

Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From thesemore » five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.« less

Agent-based model with multi-level herding for complex financial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jun-Jie; Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo

2015-02-01

In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains challenging. We introduce a novel interaction mechanism, i.e., the multi-level herding, in constructing an agent-based model to investigate the sector structure combined with volatility clustering. According to the previous market performance, agents trade in groups, and their herding behavior comprises the herding at stock, sector and market levels. Further, we propose methods to determine the key model parameters from historical market data, rather than from statistical fitting of the results. From the simulation, we obtain the sector structure and volatility clustering, as well as the eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix, for the New York and Hong Kong stock exchanges. These properties are in agreement with the empirical ones. Our results quantitatively reveal that the multi-level herding is the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure, and provide new insight into the spatio-temporal interactions in financial systems at the microscopic level.

Agent-based model with multi-level herding for complex financial systems

PubMed Central

Chen, Jun-Jie; Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo

2015-01-01

In complex financial systems, the sector structure and volatility clustering are respectively important features of the spatial and temporal correlations. However, the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure is not yet understood. Especially, how to produce these two features in one model remains challenging. We introduce a novel interaction mechanism, i.e., the multi-level herding, in constructing an agent-based model to investigate the sector structure combined with volatility clustering. According to the previous market performance, agents trade in groups, and their herding behavior comprises the herding at stock, sector and market levels. Further, we propose methods to determine the key model parameters from historical market data, rather than from statistical fitting of the results. From the simulation, we obtain the sector structure and volatility clustering, as well as the eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix, for the New York and Hong Kong stock exchanges. These properties are in agreement with the empirical ones. Our results quantitatively reveal that the multi-level herding is the microscopic generation mechanism of the sector structure, and provide new insight into the spatio-temporal interactions in financial systems at the microscopic level. PMID:25669427

Risk-based input-output analysis of influenza epidemic consequences on interdependent workforce sectors.

PubMed

Santos, Joost R; May, Larissa; Haimar, Amine El

2013-09-01

Outbreaks of contagious diseases underscore the ever-looming threat of new epidemics. Compared to other disasters that inflict physical damage to infrastructure systems, epidemics can have more devastating and prolonged impacts on the population. This article investigates the interdependent economic and productivity risks resulting from epidemic-induced workforce absenteeism. In particular, we develop a dynamic input-output model capable of generating sector-disaggregated economic losses based on different magnitudes of workforce disruptions. An ex post analysis of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the national capital region (NCR) reveals the distribution of consequences across different economic sectors. Consequences are categorized into two metrics: (i) economic loss, which measures the magnitude of monetary losses incurred in each sector, and (ii) inoperability, which measures the normalized monetary losses incurred in each sector relative to the total economic output of that sector. For a simulated mild pandemic scenario in NCR, two distinct rankings are generated using the economic loss and inoperability metrics. Results indicate that the majority of the critical sectors ranked according to the economic loss metric comprise of sectors that contribute the most to the NCR's gross domestic product (e.g., federal government enterprises). In contrast, the majority of the critical sectors generated by the inoperability metric include sectors that are involved with epidemic management (e.g., hospitals). Hence, prioritizing sectors for recovery necessitates consideration of the balance between economic loss, inoperability, and other objectives. Although applied specifically to the NCR, the proposed methodology can be customized for other regions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk-Based Input-Output Analysis of Influenza Epidemic Consequences on Interdependent Workforce Sectors

PubMed Central

Santos, Joost R.; May, Larissa; Haimar, Amine El

2013-01-01

Outbreaks of contagious diseases underscore the ever-looming threat of new epidemics. Compared to other disasters that inflict physical damage to infrastructure systems, epidemics can have more devastating and prolonged impacts on the population. This paper investigates the interdependent economic and productivity risks resulting from epidemic-induced workforce absenteeism. In particular, we develop a dynamic input-output model capable of generating sector-disaggregated economic losses based on different magnitudes of workforce disruptions. An ex post analysis of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the National Capital Region (NCR) reveals the distribution of consequences across different economic sectors. Consequences are categorized into two metrics: (i) economic loss, which measures the magnitude of monetary losses incurred in each sector, and (ii) inoperability, which measures the normalized monetary losses incurred in each sector relative to the total economic output of that sector. For a simulated mild pandemic scenario in NCR, two distinct rankings are generated using the economic loss and inoperability metrics. Results indicate that the majority of the critical sectors ranked according to the economic loss metric comprise of sectors that contribute the most to the NCR's gross domestic product (e.g., federal government enterprises). In contrast, the majority of the critical sectors generated by the inoperability metric include sectors that are involved with epidemic management (e.g., hospitals). Hence, prioritizing sectors for recovery necessitates consideration of the balance between economic loss, inoperability, and other objectives. Although applied specifically to the NCR region, the proposed methodology can be customized for other regions. PMID:23278756

Theoretical investigation of resonant frequencies of unstrapped magnetron with arbitrary side resonators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yue, Song, E-mail: yuessd@163.com; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049; Zhang, Zhao-chuan

In this paper, a sector steps approximation method is proposed to investigate the resonant frequencies of magnetrons with arbitrary side resonators. The arbitrary side resonator is substituted with a series of sector steps, in which the spatial harmonics of electromagnetic field are also considered. By using the method of admittance matching between adjacent steps, as well as field continuity conditions between side resonators and interaction regions, the dispersion equation of magnetron with arbitrary side resonators is derived. Resonant frequencies of magnetrons with five common kinds of side resonators are calculated with sector steps approximation method and computer simulation softwares, inmore » which the results have a good agreement. The relative error is less than 2%, which verifies the validity of sector steps approximation method.« less

Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AMS) testbed initial screening report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-09-01

Nationwide implementation of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) services will result from a multitude of individual deployment decisions by public agencies and the private sector. The National ITS Architecture creates the opportunity for interop...

Asymmetric Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability at Jupiter's Magnetopause Boundary: Implications for Corotation-Dominated Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, B.; Delamere, P. A.; Ma, X.; Burkholder, B.; Wiltberger, M.; Lyon, J. G.; Merkin, V. G.; Sorathia, K. A.

2018-01-01

The multifluid Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (MFLFM) global magnetosphere model is used to study the interactions between solar wind and rapidly rotating, internally driven Jupiter magnetosphere. The MFLFM model is the first global simulation of Jupiter magnetosphere that captures the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) in the critically important subsolar region. Observations indicate that Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices are found predominantly in the dusk sector. Our simulations explain that this distribution is driven by the growth of KHI modes in the prenoon and subsolar region (e.g., >10 local time) that are advected by magnetospheric flows to the dusk sector. The period of density fluctuations at the dusk terminator flank (18 magnetic local time, MLT) is roughly 1.4 h compared with 7.2 h at the dawn flank (6 MLT). Although the simulations are only performed using parameters of the Jupiter's magnetosphere, the results may also have implications for solar wind-magnetosphere interactions at other corotation-dominated systems such as Saturn. For instance, the simulated average azimuthal speed of magnetosheath flows exhibit significant dawn-dusk asymmetry, consistent with recent observations at Saturn. The results are particularly relevant for the ongoing Juno mission and the analysis of dawnside magnetopause boundary crossings for other planetary missions.

The End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe (EDgE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Eric; Wanders, Niko; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohinni; Prudhomme, Christel; Houghton-Carr, Helen

2017-04-01

High-resolution simulations of water resources from hydrological models are vital to supporting important climate services. Apart from a high level of detail, both spatially and temporally, it is important to provide simulations that consistently cover a range of timescales, from historical reanalysis to seasonal forecast and future projections. In the new EDgE project commissioned by the ECMWF (C3S) we try to fulfill these requirements. EDgE is a proof-of-concept project which combines climate data and state-of-the-art hydrological modelling to demonstrate a water-oriented information system implemented through a web application. EDgE is working with key European stakeholders representative of private and public sectors to jointly develop and tailor approaches and techniques. With these tools, stakeholders are assisted in using improved climate information in decision-making, and supported in the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. Here, we present the first results of the EDgE modelling chain, which is divided into three main processes: 1) pre-processing and downscaling; 2) hydrological modelling; 3) post-processing. Consistent downscaling and bias corrections for historical simulations, seasonal forecasts and climate projections ensure that the results across scales are robust. The daily temporal resolution and 5km spatial resolution ensure locally relevant simulations. With the use of four hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, VIC, mHM, Noah-MP), uncertainty between models is properly addressed, while consistency is guaranteed by using identical input data for static land surface parameterizations. The forecast results are communicated to stakeholders via Sectoral Climate Impact Indicators (SCIIs) that have been created in collaboration with the end-user community of the EDgE project. The final product of this project is composed of 15 years of seasonal forecast and 10 climate change projections, all combined with four hydrological models. These unique high-resolution climate information simulations in the EDgE project provide an unprecedented information system for decision-making over Europe.

Complexity Analysis of Traffic in Corridors-in-the-Sky

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Min; Zelinski, Shannon Jean

2010-01-01

The corridors-in-the-sky concept imitates the highway system in ground transportation. The benefit expected from a corridor relies on its capability of handling high density traffic with negligible controller workload, the acceptance of extra fuel or distance, and the complexity reduction in underlying sectors. This work evaluates a selected corridor from these perspectives through simulations. To examine traffic inside the corridor, a corridor traffic simulation tool that can resolve conflicts is developed using C language. Prescribed conflict resolution maneuvers mimic corridor users behaviors and conflict resolution counts measure complexity. Different lane options and operational policies are proposed to examine their impacts on complexity. Fuel consumption is calculated and compared for corridor traffic. On the other hand, to investigate the complexity of non-corridor traffic in underlying sectors, the existing Airspace Concept Evaluation System tool is utilized along with the Automated Airspace Concept tool. The number of conflict resolutions is examined and treated as the complexity measurement. The results show heavy traffic can be managed with low complexity for a historical traffic schedule simulated with appropriate operational policies and lane options. For instance, with 608 flights and peak aircraft count of 100, only 84 actions need to be taken in a 24-hour period to resolve the conflicts for an 8-lane corridor. Compared with the fuel consumptions with great circle trajectories, the simulation of corridor traffic shows that the total extra fuel for corridor flights is 26,373 gallons, or 2.76%, which is 0.38% less than flying filed flight plans. Without taking climb and descent portions of corridor traffic, the complexity of underlying sectors is reduced by 17.71%. However the climb and descent portions will eliminate the reduction and the overall complexity of sectors is actually increased by 9.14%.

Causes of the longitudinal differences in the equatorial vertical E × B drift during the 2013 SSW period as simulated by the TIME-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A.; Hagan, M. E.; Yudin, V.; Liu, H.-L.; Yizengaw, E.

2015-06-01

During stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) periods large changes in the low-latitude vertical drift have been observed at Jicamarca as well as in other longitudinal sectors. In general, a strengthening of the daytime maximum vertical drift with a shift from prenoon to the afternoon is observed. During the January 2013 stratospheric warming significant longitudinal differences in the equatorial vertical drift were observed. At Jicamarca the previously reported SSW behavior prevails; however, no shift of the daytime maximum drift was exhibited in the African sector. Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) the possible causes for the longitudinal difference are examined. The timing of the strong SSW effect in the vertical drift (15-20 January) coincides with moderate geomagnetic activity. The simulation indicates that approximately half of the daytime vertical drift increase in the American sector may be related to the moderate geophysical conditions (Kp = 4) with the effect being negligible in the African sector. The simulation suggests that the wind dynamo accounts for approximately 50% of the daytime vertical drift in the American sector and almost 100% in the African sector. The simulation agrees with previous findings that the migrating solar tides and the semidiurnal westward propagating tide with zonal wave number 1 (SW1) mainly contribute to the daytime wind dynamo and vertical drift. Numerical experiments suggest that the neutral wind and the geomagnetic main field contribute to the presence (absence) of a local time shift in the daytime maximum drift in the American (African) sector.

ISI-MIP: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, V.; Dahlemann, S.; Frieler, K.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

2013-12-01

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. The unique cross-sectoral scope of the project provides the opportunity to study cascading effects of impacts in interacting sectors and to identify regional 'hot spots' where multiple sectors experience extreme impacts. Another emphasis lies on the development of novel metrics to describe societal impacts of a warmer climate. We briefly outline the methodological framework, and then present selected results of the first, fast-tracked phase of ISI-MIP. The fast track brought together 35 global impact models internationally, spanning five sectors across human society and the natural world (agriculture, water, natural ecosystems, health and coastal infrastructure), and using the latest generation of global climate simulations (RCP projections from the CMIP5 archive) and socioeconomic drivers provided within the SSP process. We also introduce the second phase of the project, which will enlarge the scope of ISI-MIP by encompassing further impact sectors (e.g., forestry, fisheries, permafrost) and regional modeling approaches. The focus for the next round of simulations will be the validation and improvement of models based on historical observations and the analysis of variability and extreme events. Last but not least, we discuss the longer-term objective of ISI-MIP to initiate a coordinated, ongoing impact assessment process, driven by the entire impact community and in parallel with well-established climate model intercomparisons (CMIP).

Numerical Study of the Role of Microphysical Latent Heating and Surface Heat Fluxes in a Severe Precipitation Event in the Warm Sector over Southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jin-Fang; Wang, Dong-Hai; Liang, Zhao-Ming; Liu, Chong-Jian; Zhai, Guo-Qing; Wang, Hong

2018-02-01

Simulations of the severe precipitation event that occurred in the warm sector over southern China on 08 May 2014 are conducted using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARWv3.5.1) model to investigate the roles of microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes during the severe precipitation processes. At first, observations from surface rain gauges and ground-based weather radars are used to evaluate the model outputs. Results show that the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation is well reproduced, and the temporal and spatial distributions of the simulated radar reflectivity agree well with the observations. Then, several sensitive simulations are performed with the identical model configurations, except for different options in microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes. From the results, one of the significant findings is that the latent heating from warm rain microphysical processes heats the atmosphere in the initial phase of the precipitation and thus convective systems start by self-triggering and self-organizing, despite the fact that the environmental conditions are not favorable to the occurrence of precipitation event at the initial phase. In the case of the severe precipitation event over the warm sector, both warm and ice microphysical processes are active with the ice microphysics processes activated almost two hours later. According to the sensitive results, there is a very weak precipitation without heavy rainfall belt when microphysical latent heating is turned off. In terms of this precipitation event, the warm microphysics processes play significant roles on precipitation intensity, while the ice microphysics processes have effects on the spatial distribution of precipitation. Both surface sensible and latent heating have effects on the precipitation intensity and spatial distribution. By comparison, the surface sensible heating has a strong influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation, and the surface latent heating has only a slight impact on the precipitation intensity. The results indicate that microphysical latent heating might be an important factor for severe precipitation forecast in the warm sector over southern China. Surface sensible heating can have considerable influence on the precipitation spatial distribution and should not be neglected in the case of weak large-scale conditions with abundant water vapor in the warm sector.

Human-Automation Cooperation for Separation Assurance in Future NextGen Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mercer, Joey; Homola, Jeffrey; Cabrall, Christopher; Martin, Lynne; Morey, Susan; Gomez, Ashley; Prevot, Thomas

2014-01-01

A 2012 Human-In-The-Loop air traffic control simulation investigated a gradual paradigm-shift in the allocation of functions between operators and automation. Air traffic controllers staffed five adjacent high-altitude en route sectors, and during the course of a two-week experiment, worked traffic under different function-allocation approaches aligned with four increasingly mature NextGen operational environments. These NextGen time-frames ranged from near current-day operations to nearly fully-automated control, in which the ground systems automation was responsible for detecting conflicts, issuing strategic and tactical resolutions, and alerting the controller to exceptional circumstances. Results indicate that overall performance was best in the most automated NextGen environment. Safe operations were achieved in this environment for twice todays peak airspace capacity, while being rated by the controllers as highly acceptable. However, results show that sector operations were not always safe; separation violations did in fact occur. This paper will describe in detail the simulation conducted, as well discuss important results and their implications.

Interactions between Antarctic sea ice and large-scale atmospheric modes in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeter, Serena; Hobbs, Will; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

2017-03-01

The response of Antarctic sea ice to large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability varies according to sea ice sector and season. In this study, interannual atmosphere-sea ice interactions were explored using observations and reanalysis data, and compared with simulated interactions by models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulated relationships between atmospheric variability and sea ice variability generally reproduced the observed relationships, though more closely during the season of sea ice advance than the season of sea ice retreat. Atmospheric influence on sea ice is known to be strongest during advance, and it appears that models are able to capture the dominance of the atmosphere during advance. Simulations of ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions during retreat, however, require further investigation. A large proportion of model ensemble members overestimated the relative importance of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) compared with other modes of high southern latitude climate, while the influence of tropical forcing was underestimated. This result emerged particularly strongly during the season of sea ice retreat. The zonal patterns of the SAM in many models and its exaggerated influence on sea ice overwhelm the comparatively underestimated meridional influence, suggesting that simulated sea ice variability would become more zonally symmetric as a result. Across the seasons of sea ice advance and retreat, three of the five sectors did not reveal a strong relationship with a pattern of large-scale atmospheric variability in one or both seasons, indicating that sea ice in these sectors may be influenced more strongly by atmospheric variability unexplained by the major atmospheric modes, or by heat exchange in the ocean.

Alleviating tropical Atlantic sector biases in the Kiel climate model by enhancing horizontal and vertical atmosphere model resolution: climatology and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harlaß, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2018-04-01

We investigate the quality of simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) sector climatology and interannual variability in integrations of the Kiel climate model (KCM) with varying atmosphere model resolution. The ocean model resolution is kept fixed. A reasonable simulation of TA sector annual-mean climate, seasonal cycle and interannual variability can only be achieved at sufficiently high horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution. Two major reasons for the improvements are identified. First, the western equatorial Atlantic westerly surface wind bias in spring can be largely eliminated, which is explained by a better representation of meridional and especially vertical zonal momentum transport. The enhanced atmospheric circulation along the equator in turn greatly improves the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Atlantic with much reduced warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases. Second, the coastline in the southeastern TA and steep orography are better resolved at high resolution, which improves wind structure and in turn reduces warm SST biases in the Benguela upwelling region. The strongly diminished wind and SST biases at high atmosphere model resolution allow for a more realistic latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone. Resulting stronger cross-equatorial winds, in conjunction with a shallower thermocline, enable a rapid cold tongue development in the eastern TA in boreal spring. This enables simulation of realistic interannual SST variability and its seasonal phase locking in the KCM, which primarily is the result of a stronger thermocline feedback. Our findings suggest that enhanced atmospheric resolution, both vertical and horizontal, could be a key to achieving more realistic simulation of TA climatology and interannual variability in climate models.

Interaction of Airspace Partitions and Traffic Flow Management Delay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palopo, Kee; Chatterji, Gano B.; Lee, Hak-Tae

2010-01-01

To ensure that air traffic demand does not exceed airport and airspace capacities, traffic management restrictions, such as delaying aircraft on the ground, assigning them different routes and metering them in the airspace, are implemented. To reduce the delays resulting from these restrictions, revising the partitioning of airspace has been proposed to distribute capacity to yield a more efficient airspace configuration. The capacity of an airspace partition, commonly referred to as a sector, is limited by the number of flights that an air traffic controller can safely manage within the sector. Where viable, re-partitioning of the airspace distributes the flights over more efficient sectors and reduces individual sector demand. This increases the overall airspace efficiency, but requires additional resources in some sectors in terms of controllers and equipment, which is undesirable. This study examines the tradeoff of the number of sectors designed for a specified amount of traffic in a clear-weather day and the delays needed for accommodating the traffic demand. Results show that most of the delays are caused by airport arrival and departure capacity constraints. Some delays caused by airspace capacity constraints can be eliminated by re-partitioning the airspace. Analyses show that about 360 high-altitude sectors, which are approximately today s operational number of sectors of 373, are adequate for delays to be driven solely by airport capacity constraints for the current daily air traffic demand. For a marginal increase of 15 seconds of average delay, the number of sectors can be reduced to 283. In addition, simulations of traffic growths of 15% and 20% with forecasted airport capacities in the years 2018 and 2025 show that delays will continue to be governed by airport capacities. In clear-weather days, for small increases in traffic demand, increasing sector capacities will have almost no effect on delays.

Evaluating strategies to reduce urban air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duque, L.; Relvas, H.; Silveira, C.; Ferreira, J.; Monteiro, A.; Gama, C.; Rafael, S.; Freitas, S.; Borrego, C.; Miranda, A. I.

2016-02-01

During the last years, specific air quality problems have been detected in the urban area of Porto (Portugal). Both PM10 and NO2 limit values have been surpassed in several air quality monitoring stations and, following the European legislation requirements, Air Quality Plans were designed and implemented to reduce those levels. In this sense, measures to decrease PM10 and NO2 emissions have been selected, these mainly related to the traffic sector, but also regarding the industrial and residential combustion sectors. The main objective of this study is to investigate the efficiency of these reduction measures with regard to the improvement of PM10 and NO2 concentration levels over the Porto urban region using a numerical modelling tool - The Air Pollution Model (TAPM). TAPM was applied over the study region, for a simulation domain of 80 × 80 km2 with a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km2. The entire year of 2012 was simulated and set as the base year for the analysis of the impacts of the selected measures. Taking into account the main activity sectors, four main scenarios have been defined and simulated, with focus on: (1) hybrid cars; (2) a Low Emission Zone (LEZ); (3) fireplaces and (4) industry. The modelling results indicate that measures to reduce PM10 should be focused on residential combustion (fireplaces) and industrial activity and for NO2 the strategy should be based on the traffic sector. The implementation of all the defined scenarios will allow a total maximum reduction of 4.5% on the levels of both pollutants.

Potential Evaluation of Energy Supply System in Grid Power System, Commercial, and Residential Sectors by Minimizing Energy Cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oda, Takuya; Akisawa, Atushi; Kashiwagi, Takao

If the economic activity in the commercial and residential sector continues to grow, improvement in energy conversion efficiencies of energy supply systems is necessary for CO2 mitigation. In recent years, the electricity driven hot water heat pump (EDHP) and the solar photo voltaic (PV) are commercialized. The fuel cell (FC) of co-generation system (CGS) for the commercial and residential sector will be commercialized in the future. The aim is to indicate the ideal energy supply system of the users sector, which both manages the economical cost and CO2 mitigation, considering the grid power system. In the paper, cooperative Japanese energy supply systems are modeled by linear-programming. It includes the grid power system and energy systems of five commercial sectors and a residential sector. The demands of sectors are given by the objective term for 2005 to 2025. 24 hours load for each 3 annual seasons are considered. The energy systems are simulated to be minimize the total cost of energy supply, and to be mitigate the CO2 discharge. As result, the ideal energy system at 2025 is shown. The CGS capacity grows to 30% (62GW) of total power system, and the EDHP capacity is 26GW, in commercial and residential sectors.

Benefits Assessment of Algorithmically Combining Generic High Altitude Airspace Sectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloem, Michael; Gupta, Pramod; Lai, Chok Fung; Kopardekar, Parimal

2009-01-01

In today's air traffic control operations, sectors that have traffic demand below capacity are combined so that fewer controller teams are required to manage air traffic. Controllers in current operations are certified to control a group of six to eight sectors, known as an area of specialization. Sector combinations are restricted to occur within areas of specialization. Since there are few sector combination possibilities in each area of specialization, human supervisors can effectively make sector combination decisions. In the future, automation and procedures will allow any appropriately trained controller to control any of a large set of generic sectors. The primary benefit of this will be increased controller staffing flexibility. Generic sectors will also allow more options for combining sectors, making sector combination decisions difficult for human supervisors. A sector-combining algorithm can assist supervisors as they make generic sector combination decisions. A heuristic algorithm for combining under-utilized air space sectors to conserve air traffic control resources has been described and analyzed. Analysis of the algorithm and comparisons with operational sector combinations indicate that this algorithm could more efficiently utilize air traffic control resources than current sector combinations. This paper investigates the benefits of using the sector-combining algorithm proposed in previous research to combine high altitude generic airspace sectors. Simulations are conducted in which all the high altitude sectors in a center are allowed to combine, as will be possible in generic high altitude airspace. Furthermore, the algorithm is adjusted to use a version of the simplified dynamic density (SDD) workload metric that has been modified to account for workload reductions due to automatic handoffs and Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B). This modified metric is referred to here as future simplified dynamic density (FSDD). Finally, traffic demand sets with increased air traffic demand are used in the simulations to capture the expected growth in air traffic demand by the mid-term.

Design and application of a technologically explicit hybrid energy-economy policy model with micro and macro economic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bataille, Christopher G. F.

2005-11-01

Are further energy efficiency gains, or more recently greenhouse gas reductions, expensive or cheap? Analysts provide conflicting advice to policy makers based on divergent modelling perspectives, a 'top-down/bottom-up debate' in which economists use equation based models that equilibrate markets by maximizing consumer welfare, and technologists use technology simulation models that minimize the financial cost of providing energy services. This thesis summarizes a long term research project to find a middle ground between these two positions that is more useful to policy makers. Starting with the individual components of a behaviourally realistic and technologically explicit simulation model (ISTUM---Inter Sectoral Technology Use Model), or "hybrid", the individual sectors of the economy are linked using a framework of micro and macro economic feedbacks. These feedbacks are taken from the economic theory that informs the computable general equilibrium (CGE) family of models. Speaking in the languages of both economists and engineers, the resulting "physical" equilibrium model of Canada (CIMS---Canadian Integrated Modeling System), equilibrates energy and end-product markets, including imports and exports, for seven regions and 15 economic sectors, including primary industry, manufacturing, transportation, commerce, residences, governmental infrastructure and the energy supply sectors. Several different policy experiments demonstrate the value-added of the model and how its results compare to top-down and bottom-up practice. In general, the results show that technical adjustments make up about half the response to simulated energy policy, and macroeconomic demand adjustments the other half. Induced technical adjustments predominate with minor policies, while the importance of macroeconomic demand adjustment increases with the strength of the policy. Results are also shown for an experiment to derive estimates of future elasticity of substitution (ESUB) and autonomous energy efficiency indices (AEEI) from the model, parameters that could be used in long-run computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The thesis concludes with a summary of the strengths and weakness of the new model as a policy tool, a work plan for its further improvement, and a discussion of the general potential for technologically explicit general equilibrium modelling.

Design, Development, and Innovation of an Interactive Multimedia Training Simulator for Responding to Air Transportation Bomb Threats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Christopher A.; Marwaha, Shweta

2005-01-01

This paper describes an interactive multimedia simulator for air transportation bomb threat training. The objective of this project is to improve the air transportation sector s capability to respond to bomb threats received by commercial airports and aircraft. The simulator provides realistic training on receiving and responding to a variety of bomb threats that might not otherwise be possible due to time, cost, or operational constraints. Validation analysis indicates that the use of the simulator resulted in statistically significant increases in individual ability to respond to these types of bomb threats.

Modeling uncertainties in workforce disruptions from influenza pandemics using dynamic input-output analysis.

PubMed

El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R

2014-03-01

Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Impacts of Energy Sector Emissions on PM2.5 Air Quality in Northern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karambelas, A. N.; Kiesewetter, G.; Heyes, C.; Holloway, T.

2015-12-01

India experiences high concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and several Indian cities currently rank among the world's most polluted cities. With ongoing urbanization and a growing economy, emissions from different energy sectors remain major contributors to air pollution in India. Emission sectors impact ambient air quality differently due to spatial distribution (typical urban vs. typical rural sources) as well as source height characteristics (low-level vs. high stack sources). This study aims to assess the impacts of emissions from three distinct energy sectors—transportation, domestic, and electricity—on ambient PM2.5­­ in northern India using an advanced air quality analysis framework based on the U.S. EPA Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Present air quality conditions are simulated using 2010 emissions from the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interaction and Synergies (GAINS) model. Modeled PM2.5 concentrations are compared with satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2010. Energy sector emissions impacts on future (2030) PM2.5 are evaluated with three sensitivity simulations, assuming maximum feasible reduction technologies for either transportation, domestic, or electricity sectors. These simulations are compared with a business as usual 2030 simulation to assess relative sectoral impacts spatially and temporally. CMAQ is modeled at 12km by 12km and include biogenic emissions from the Community Land Model coupled with the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols in Nature (CLM-MEGAN), biomass burning emissions from the Global Fires Emissions Database (GFED), and ERA-Interim meteorology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for 2010 to quantify the impact of modified anthropogenic emissions on ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Energy sector emissions analysis supports decision-making to improve future air quality and public health in India.

Why an SO/sub 2/ emission tax is an unpopular policy instrument: Simulation results from a general equilibrium model of the Norwegian economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanson, D.A.; Alfsen, K.H.

1986-01-01

Norway, together with some twenty other countries, signed the Helsinki treaty in July 1985 for the purpose of reducing SO/sub 2/ emissions. Hence, it is interesting to analyze the emission reductions that could be achieved using a tax on SO/sub 2/ emissions, as well as the indirect impacts on the economy. Simulations of the economic impact of the tax (which effectively increases the cost of using energy) were made using the Multi-Sectoral Growth (MSG) model. Results of the simulations indicated a larger than expected reduction in economic output.

Flexible Airspace Management (FAM) Research 2010 Human-in-the-Loop Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Paul U.; Brasil, Connie; Homola, Jeffrey; Kessell, Angela; Prevot, Thomas; Smith, Nancy

2011-01-01

A human-in-the-Ioop (HITL) simulation was conducted to assess potential user and system benefits of Flexible Airspace Management (FAM) concept, as well as designing role definitions, procedures, and tools to support the FAM operations in the mid-term High Altitude Airspace (HAA) environment. The study evaluated the benefits and feasibility of flexible airspace reconfiguration in response to traffic overload caused by weather deviations, and compared them to those in a baseline condition without the airspace reconfiguration. The test airspace consisted of either four sectors in one Area of Specialization or seven sectors across two Areas. The test airspace was assumed to be at or above FL340 and fully equipped Vvith data communications (Data Comm). Other assumptions were consistent with those of the HAA concept. Overall, results showed that FAM operations with multiple Traffic Management Coordinators, Area Supervisors, and controllers worked remarkably well. The results showed both user and system benefits, some of which include the increased throughput, decreased flight distance, more manageable sector loads, and better utilized airspace. Also, the roles, procedures, airspace designs, and tools were all very well received. Airspace configuration options that resulted from a combination of algorithm-generated airspace configurations with manual modifications were well acceptec and posed little difficuIty and/or workload during airspace reconfiguration process. The results suggest a positive impact of FAM operations in HAA. Further investigation would be needed to evaluate if the benefits and feasibility would extend in either non-HAA or mixed equipage environment.

Influence of coupling on atmosphere, sea ice and ocean regional models in the Ross Sea sector, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Mathiot, Pierre; Gallée, Hubert; Barnier, Bernard

2011-04-01

Air-sea ice-ocean interactions in the Ross Sea sector form dense waters that feed the global thermohaline circulation. In this paper, we develop the new limited-area ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model TANGO to simulate the Ross Sea sector. TANGO is built up by coupling the atmospheric limited-area model MAR to a regional configuration of the ocean-sea ice model NEMO. A method is then developed to identify the mechanisms by which local coupling affects the simulations. TANGO is shown to simulate realistic sea ice properties and atmospheric surface temperatures. These skills are mostly related to the skills of the stand alone atmospheric and oceanic models used to build TANGO. Nonetheless, air temperatures over ocean and winter sea ice thickness are found to be slightly improved in coupled simulations as compared to standard stand alone ones. Local atmosphere ocean feedbacks over the open ocean are found to significantly influence ocean temperature and salinity. In a stand alone ocean configuration, the dry and cold air produces an ocean cooling through sensible and latent heat loss. In a coupled configuration, the atmosphere is in turn moistened and warmed by the ocean; sensible and latent heat loss is therefore reduced as compared to the stand alone simulations. The atmosphere is found to be less sensitive to local feedbacks than the ocean. Effects of local feedbacks are increased in the coastal area because of the presence of sea ice. It is suggested that slow heat conduction within sea ice could amplify the feedbacks. These local feedbacks result in less sea ice production in polynyas in coupled mode, with a subsequent reduction in deep water formation.

Application of New Chorus Wave Model from Van Allen Probe Observations in Earth's Radiation Belt Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Shprits, Y.; Spasojevic, M.; Zhu, H.; Aseev, N.; Drozdov, A.; Kellerman, A. C.

2017-12-01

In situ satellite observations, theoretical studies and model simulations suggested that chorus waves play a significant role in the dynamic evolution of relativistic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts. In this study, we developed new wave frequency and amplitude models that depend on Magnetic Local Time (MLT)-, L-shell, latitude- and geomagnetic conditions indexed by Kp for upper-band and lower-band chorus waves using measurements from the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) instrument onboard the Van Allen Probes. Utilizing the quasi-linear full diffusion code, we calculated corresponding diffusion coefficients in each MLT sector (1 hour resolution) for upper-band and lower-band chorus waves according to the new developed wave models. Compared with former parameterizations of chorus waves, the new parameterizations result in differences in diffusion coefficients that depend on energy and pitch angle. Utilizing obtained diffusion coefficients, lifetime of energetic electrons is parameterized accordingly. In addition, to investigate effects of obtained diffusion coefficients in different MLT sectors and under different geomagnetic conditions, we performed simulations using four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt simulations and validated results against observations.

Economic and environmental impacts of the corn grain ethanol industry on the United States agricultural sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larson, J.A.; English, B.C.; De La Torre Ugarte, D. G.

2010-09-10

This study evaluated the impacts of increased ethanol production from corn starch on agricultural land use and the environment in the United States. The Policy Analysis System simulation model was used to simulate alternative ethanol production scenarios for 2007 through 2016. Results indicate that increased corn ethanol production had a positive effect on net farm income and economic wellbeing of the US agricultural sector. In addition, government payments to farmers were reduced because of higher commodity prices and enhanced net farm income. Results also indicate that if Conservation Reserve Program land was converted to crop production in response to highermore » demand for ethanol in the simulation, individual farmers planted more land in crops, including corn. With a larger total US land area in crops due to individual farmer cropping choices, total US crop output rose, which decreased crop prices and aggregate net farm income relative to the scenario where increased ethanol production happened without Conservation Reserve Program land. Substantial shifts in land use occurred with corn area expanding throughout the United States, especially in the traditional corn-growing area of the midcontinent region.« less

Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.

Treesearch

Bruce A. McCarl; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Diana Burton; Chi-Chung. Chen

2000-01-01

A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic...

Stability analysis of nonlinear systems with slope restricted nonlinearities.

PubMed

Liu, Xian; Du, Jiajia; Gao, Qing

2014-01-01

The problem of absolute stability of Lur'e systems with sector and slope restricted nonlinearities is revisited. Novel time-domain and frequency-domain criteria are established by using the Lyapunov method and the well-known Kalman-Yakubovich-Popov (KYP) lemma. The criteria strengthen some existing results. Simulations are given to illustrate the efficiency of the results.

Quantifying Source Sector and Region Contributions of BC and Dust Deposition on the Arctic Snow and the Resulting Albedo Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobhani, N.; Gregory, C.; Kulkarni, S.

2017-12-01

Long-range transport of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) from mid-latitude sources to the Arctic is the main contributor to the Arctic PM loadings and deposition. Light absorbing particles such as Black Carbon (BC) and dust are considered of great climatic importance and are the main absorbers of sunlight in the atmosphere. Wet and dry deposition of light absorbing particles (LAPs) on snow and ice cause reduction of snow and ice albedo. LAPs have significant radiative forcing and effect on snow albedo causing snow and ice to warm and melt more quickly. There are large uncertainties in estimating radiative forcing of LAPs. In this study, the potential impacts of LAPs from different emission source regions and sectors on snow albedo in the Arctic are studied. A modeling framework including Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the University of Iowa's Sulfur Transport and dEpostion model (STEM) is used to simulate the seasonality and transport of LAPs from different geographical sources and sectors (i.e. transportation, residential, industry, biomass burning and power) to the Arctic. The main geographical source contributor to the Arctic BC annual deposition flux is China. However, there is a distinct seasonal variation for the contributions of geographical source emissions to BC deposition. During the spring, when the deposition flux is highest, the contribution of biomass burning attributes for up to 40% of total deposition at Alert and Barrow. However, during the winter, the anthropogenic sectors contribute up to 95% of total BC deposition. The simulated snow BC mixing ratios are evaluated using the observed BC snow concentration values from previous studies including Doherty et al., 2010. The simulations show the BC deposition causes 0.6% snow albedo decrease during spring 2008 over the Arctic.

Managing Demand and Capacity Using Multi-Sector Planning and Flexible Airspace: Human-in-the-Loop Evaluation of NextGen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Paul U.; Smith, Nancy M.; Prevot, Thomas; Homola, Jeffrey R.

2010-01-01

When demand for an airspace sector exceeds capacity, the balance can be re-established by reducing the demand, increasing the capacity, or both. The Multi-Sector Planner (MSP) concept has been proposed to better manage traffic demand by modifying trajectories across multiple sectors. A complementary approach to MSP, called Flexible Airspace Management (FAM), reconfigures the airspace such that capacity can be reallocated dynamically to balance the traffic demand across multiple sectors, resulting in fewer traffic management initiatives. The two concepts have been evaluated with a series of human-in-the-loop simulations at the Airspace Operations Laboratory to examine and refine the roles of the human operators in these concepts, as well as their tools and procedural requirements. So far MSP and FAM functions have been evaluated individually but the integration of the two functions is desirable since there are significant overlaps in their goals, geographic/temporal scope of the problem space, and the implementation timeframe. Ongoing research is planned to refine the humans roles in the integrated concept.

Medical imaging technology shock and volatility of macro economics: Analysis using a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model.

PubMed

Han, Shurong; Huang, Yeqing

2017-07-07

The study analysed the medical imaging technology business cycle from 1981 to 2009 and found that the volatility of consumption in Chinese medical imaging business was higher than that of the developed countries. The volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) and the correlation between consumption and GDP is also higher than that of the developed countries. Prior to the early 1990s the volatility of consumption is even higher than GDP. This fact makes it difficult to explain the volatile market using the standard one sector real economic cycle (REC) model. Contrary to the other domestic studies, this study considers a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model. In this model there are two consumption sectors, whereby one is labour intensive and another is capital intensive. The more capital intensive investment sector only introduces technology shocks in the medical imaging market. Our response functions and Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the model can explain 90% of the volatility of consummation relative to GDP, and explain the correlation between consumption and GDP. The results demonstrated the significant correlation between the technological reform in medical imaging and volatility in the labour market on Chinese macro economy development.

In Vitro Validation of a Sector-Switching HIFU Device for Accelerated Treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrusca, Lorena; Brasset, Lucie; Cotton, Francois; Salomir, Rares; Chapelon, Jean-Yves

2009-04-01

A sector-switching method that increases the HIFU sequence duty-cycle and reduces the equivalent treatment time was tested in vitro. The MR-compatible HIFU device used consisted of 2 symmetric sectors arranged on a truncated spherical cap (focus = 45 mm, long diameter = 57.5 mm, short diameter = 35 mm). A MR-compatible, 2D positioning system provided 0.5 mm accuracy. Two sonication sequences were considered, each with the same pattern for the focal point trajectory and with identical on-state power. First, both sectors radiated simultaneously, with a power duty cycle of 60%. Second, the sectors radiated separately with balanced temporally-interleaved sonication and a power duty cycle of 87.5%. Numerical simulations were performed to predict the shape of the lesion for a given set of sequence parameters, according to a theoretical model. Fast MR thermometry (voxel size: 0.85×0.85×4.25 mm3; temporal resolution: 2 sec) was performed in two orthogonal planes (sagittal and transverse) while the 2D sonication pattern was contained in the coronal plane. Fresh samples of degassed porcine liver were used, and the macroscopic lesions were measured after HIFU. The 14400 s equivalent thermal dose isolevel was compared respectively for the two sonication sequences, both with numerical simulations and experimental MR data. No susceptibility or RF artifacts could be detected on MR data. The lesion's size ratio between reference versus the sector-switched sequence was 1.12 from simulations and 1.25 (±3.2%) from MRI derived TD. Switching the device sectors reduced the treatment time by 20% while the shape and size of the lesions were maintained. In vivo studies are required for pre-clinical validation.

Multi Sector Planning Tools for Trajectory-Based Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prevot, Thomas; Mainini, Matthew; Brasil, Connie

2010-01-01

This paper discusses a suite of multi sector planning tools for trajectory-based operations that were developed and evaluated in the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) at the NASA Ames Research Center. The toolset included tools for traffic load and complexity assessment as well as trajectory planning and coordination. The situation assessment tools included an integrated suite of interactive traffic displays, load tables, load graphs, and dynamic aircraft filters. The planning toolset allowed for single and multi aircraft trajectory planning and data communication-based coordination of trajectories between operators. Also newly introduced was a real-time computation of sector complexity into the toolset that operators could use in lieu of aircraft count to better estimate and manage sector workload, especially in situations with convective weather. The tools were used during a joint NASA/FAA multi sector planner simulation in the AOL in 2009 that had multiple objectives with the assessment of the effectiveness of the tools being one of them. Current air traffic control operators who were experienced as area supervisors and traffic management coordinators used the tools throughout the simulation and provided their usefulness and usability ratings in post simulation questionnaires. This paper presents these subjective assessments as well as the actual usage data that was collected during the simulation. The toolset was rated very useful and usable overall. Many elements received high scores by the operators and were used frequently and successfully. Other functions were not used at all, but various requests for new functions and capabilities were received that could be added to the toolset.

Emission projections of the transport Sector in China: 2015-2040

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, L.

2016-12-01

Driven by the significant growth freight and passenger transport demand, transport sector has become a sector that is largely responsible for increases in emissions of atmospheric pollutants (NOx, CO, HC, PM2.5) in China. Figuring out the emission trend in China's transport sector has great influence on formulating emission reduction measures in the future. In this work, both on-road and off-road transport emissions in China were estimated from 2015 to 2040 for CO, NOx, HC and PM2.5. The projection was conducted based on on the energy consumption structure forecast from IEA (International Energy Agency), the future national average annual distance traveled per vehicle and fuel consumption per distance derived from simulation results of the Fuel Economy and Environmental Impact (FEEI) model. The results show that the ownership of on-road vehicles in China increases rapidly during 2015 to 2030 and then the growth slows down. Finally, the total amount reaches up to 522 million in 2040 in which 84.5% turns out to be light-duty vehicles. Because current control legislations for the transport sector in China will continue to be strengthened in the future, the total emissions of China's transport sector were projected to peak around 2030, due to the improvement of vehicle emission standard and the retirement of old vehicles are the most effective measures. The off-road transport will become the main contributor to emissions from transport sector in China since 2030. This work provides a new perspective to understand emissions from both on-road and off-road transport in China, which can support the achievement of improving air quality promised by the Chinese government. This work provides a new perspective to understand the emission trends of on-road and off-road transport sector in China from 2015 to 2040, which can support the achievement of the air quality goal promised by the Chinese government. Driven by the significant growth freight and passenger transport demand, transport sector has become a sector that is largely responsible for increases in emissions of atmospheric pollutants (NOx, CO, HC, PM2.5) in China. Figuring out the emission trend in China's transport sector has great influence on formulating emission reduction measures in the future. In this work, both on-road and off-road transport emissions in China were estimated from 2015 to 2040 for CO, NOx, HC and PM2.5. The projection was conducted based on on the energy consumption structure forecast from IEA (International Energy Agency), the future national average annual distance traveled per vehicle and fuel consumption per distance derived from simulation results of the Fuel Economy and Environmental Impact (FEEI) model. The results show that the ownership of on-road vehicles in China increases rapidly during 2015 to 2030 and then the growth slows down. Finally, the total amount reaches up to 522 million in 2040 in which 84.5% turns out to be light-duty vehicles. Because current control legislations for the transport sector in China will continue to be strengthened in the future, the total emissions of China's transport sector were projected to peak around 2030, due to the improvement of vehicle emission standard and the retirement of old vehicles are the most effective measures. The off-road transport will become the main contributor to emissions from transport sector in China since 2030. This work provides a new perspective to understand emissions from both on-road and off-road transport in China, which can support the achievement of improving air quality promised by the Chinese government. This work provides a new perspective to understand the emission trends of on-road and off-road transport sector in China from 2015 to 2040, which can support the achievement of the air quality goal promised by the Chinese government.

The simulation on diode-clamped five-level converters common-mode voltage suppression with zero-vector PWM strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yonggao; Gao, Yanli; Long, Lizhong

2012-04-01

More and more researchers have great concern on the issue of Common-mode voltage (CMV) in high voltage large power converter. A novel common-mode voltage suppression scheme based on zero-vector PWM strategy (ZVPWM) is present in this paper. Taking a diode-clamped five-level converter as example, the principle of zero vector PWM common-mode voltage (ZCMVPWM) suppression method is studied in detail. ZCMVPWM suppression strategy is including four important parts, which are locating the sector of reference voltage vector, locating the small triangular sub-sector of reference voltage vector, reference vector synthesis, and calculating the operating time of vector. The principles of four important pars are illustrated in detail and the corresponding MATLAB models are established. System simulation and experimental results are provided. It gives some consultation value for the development and research of multi-level converters.

Ultra-Thin Dual-Band Polarization-Insensitive and Wide-Angle Perfect Metamaterial Absorber Based on a Single Circular Sector Resonator Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Hao; Cheng, Yong Zhi

2018-01-01

We present a simple design for an ultra-thin dual-band polarization-insensitive and wide-angle perfect metamaterial absorber (PMMA) based on a single circular sector resonator structure (CSRS). Both simulation and experimental results reveal that two resonance peaks with average absorption above 99% can be achieved. The dual-band PMMA is ultra-thin with total thickness of 0.5 mm, which is

Total Dose Survivability of Hubble Electronic Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, M. A.; Stauffer, C.; Jordan, T.; Poivey, C.; Haskins, D. N.; Lum, G.; Pergosky, A. M.; Smith, D. C.; LaBel, K. A.

2017-01-01

A total dose analysis for exposure of electronic parts at the box level is presented for the Hubble Space Telescope. This was done using solid angle sectoring/3-dimensional ray trace and Monte Carlo radiation transport simulations. Results are discussed in terms of parts that are potential total dose concerns.

The global impact of the transport sectors on atmospheric aerosol in 2030 - Part 2: Aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Righi, Mattia; Hendricks, Johannes; Sausen, Robert

2016-04-01

We use the EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) global climate-chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications) to simulate the impact of aviation emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) designed in support of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We compare our findings with the results of a previous study with the same model configuration focusing on year 2000 emissions. We also characterize the aviation results in the context of the other transport sectors presented in a companion paper. In spite of a relevant increase in aviation traffic volume and resulting emissions of aerosol (black carbon) and aerosol precursor species (nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide), the aviation effect on particle mass concentration in 2030 remains quite negligible (on the order of a few ng m-3), about 1 order of magnitude less than the increase in concentration due to other emission sources. Due to the relatively small size of the aviation-induced aerosol, however, the increase in particle number concentration is significant in all scenarios (about 1000 cm-3), mostly affecting the northern mid-latitudes at typical flight altitudes (7-12 km). This largely contributes to the overall change in particle number concentration between 2000 and 2030, which also results in significant climate effects due to aerosol-cloud interactions. Aviation is the only transport sector for which a larger impact on the Earth's radiation budget is simulated in the future: the aviation-induced radiative forcing in 2030 is more than doubled with respect to the year 2000 value of -15 mW m-2 in all scenarios, with a maximum value of -63 mW m-2 simulated for RCP2.6.

Analysis of the OPERA 15-pin experiment with SABRE-2P. [LMFBR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rose, S.D.; Carbajo, J.J.

The OPERA (Out-of-Pile Expulsion and Reentry Apparatus) experiment simulates the initial phase of a pump coastdown without scram of a liquid-metal fast breeder reactor, specifically the Fast Flux Test Facility. The test section is a 15-pin 60/sup 0/ triangular sector designed to simulate a full-size 61-pin hexagonal bundle. A previous study indicates this to be an adequate simulation. In this paper, experimental results from the OPERA 15-pin experiment performed at ANL in 1982 are compared to analytical calculations obtained with the SABRE-2P code at ORNL.

An Examination of the Conceptual Basis of a Tactical, Logistical, and Air Simulation (ATLAS).

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-03-01

guides the simulation from the start. From this scenario and the de - veloping tactical situation comes information which triggers the tactical-decision...effect of tactical aircraft in a combat situation together with the effect of weapons to destroy the aircraft. The presence of transport aircraft is...sector, the ability of that sector to resupply existing combat units, to transport replacement items and supplies, and to move the new unit through

Linear and nonlinear winter atmospheric responses to extreme phases of low frequency Pacific sea surface temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Dandan; Wu, Qigang; Hu, Aixue; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Schroeder, Steven R.; Yang, Fucheng

2018-02-01

This study examines Northern Hemisphere winter (DJFM) atmospheric responses to opposite strong phases of interdecadal (low frequency, LF) Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, which resembles El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on a longer time scale, in observations and GFDL and CAM4 model simulations. Over the Pacific-North America (PNA) sector, linear observed responses of 500-hPa height (Z500) anomalies resemble the PNA teleconnection pattern, but show a PNA-like nonlinear response because of a westward Z500 shift in the negative (LF-) relative to the positive LF (LF+) phase. Significant extratropical linear responses include a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like Z500 anomaly, a dipole-like Z500 anomaly over northern Eurasia associated with warming over mid-high latitude Eurasia, and a Southern Annular anomaly pattern associated with warming in southern land areas. Significant nonlinear Z500 responses also include a NAO-like anomaly pattern. Models forced by LF+ and LF- SST anomalies reproduce many aspects of observed linear and nonlinear responses over the Pacific-North America sector, and linear responses over southern land, but not in the North Atlantic-European sector and Eurasia. Both models simulate PNA-like linear responses in the North Pacific-North America region similar to observed, but show larger PNA-like LF+ responses, resulting in a PNA nonlinear response. The nonlinear PNA responses result from both nonlinear western tropical Pacific rainfall changes and extratropical transient eddy feedbacks. With LF tropical Pacific forcing only (LFTP+ and LFTP-, climatological SST elsewhere), CAM4 simulates a significant NAO response to LFTP-, including a linear negative and nonlinear positive NAO response.

Simulating the Impacts of Climate Extremes Across Sectors: The Case of the 2003 European Heat Wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, J.; Zhao, F.; Reyer, C.; Breuer, L.; Coll, M.; Deryng, D.; Eddy, T.; Elliott, J. W.; Francois, L. M.; Friend, A. D.; Gerten, D.; Gosling, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Huber, V.; Kim, H.; Lotze, H. K.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Increased occurrence of extreme climate or weather events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events across different human and natural systems is crucial for quantifying overall risks from climate change. Are current models fit for this task? Here we use the 2003 European heat wave and drought (EHW) as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, and evaluate how accurately its impacts are reproduced by a multi-sectoral "super-ensemble" of state-of-the-art impacts models. Our study combines, for the first time, impacts on agriculture, freshwater resources, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, energy, and human health in a consistent multi-model framework. We identify key impacts of the 2003 EHW reported in the literature and/or recorded in publicly available databases, and examine how closely the models reproduce those impacts, applying the same measure of impact magnitude across different sectors. Preliminary results are mixed: While the EHW's impacts on water resources (streamflow) are reproduced well by most global hydrological models, not all crop and natural vegetation models reproduce the magnitude of impacts on agriculture and ecosystem productivity, respectively, and their performance varies by country or region. A hydropower capacity model matches reported hydropower generation anomalies only in some countries, and estimates of heat-related excess mortality from a set of statistical models are consistent with literature reports only for some of the cities investigated. We present a synthesis of simulated and observed impacts across sectors, and reflect on potential improvements in modeling and analyzing cross-sectoral impacts.

Evolution of ionospheric convection and ULFs during the 27 March 2017 storm: ERG-SuperDARN campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hori, T.; Nishitani, N.; Shepherd, S. G.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Connors, M. G.; Teramoto, M.; Nakano, S.; Seki, K.; Takahashi, N.; Kasahara, S.; Yokota, S.; Mitani, T.; Takashima, T.; Higashio, N.; Matsuoka, A.; Asamura, K.; Kazama, Y.; Wang, S. Y.; Tam, S. W. Y.; Miyoshi, Y.; Shinohara, I.

2017-12-01

The Exploration of energization and Radiation in Geospace (ERG) satellite, which was nicknamed "Arase" after its launch on late December, 2016, has successfully started regular observations recently. In concert with in situ measurement made by Arase in the inner magnetosphere, campaign observations with SuperDARN radars have been conducted with a special scan mode "interleaved_normalscan" since March, 2017. Some of the radars being operated in the special mode observed the dynamic evolution of ionospheric convection including superimposed ULF-like convection fluctuations with frequencies of mHz over the North American sector during a moderate magnetic storm on March 27, 2017. The large-scale evolution provided by the radar observations in the early morning sector shows that the ionospheric convection changed direction between westward and eastward several times in the course of the storm main phase. Some meso-scale patchy structures seen on 2-D profiles of the line-of-sight (LOS) velocity propagated both westward and eastward just after a major substorm intensification. Interestingly, the velocity fluctuations were accompanied by a drifting energetic electron population as observed by particle instruments onboard Arase. A simulation of the inner magnetosphere coupled with a global MHD simulation for this event reproduces intense particle injections in the premidnight sector, consistent with the energy dispersion of the observed drifting population. A detailed interpretation of the observations including those captured by Arase is discussed and compared with the simulation results.

Global water dynamics: issues for the 21st century.

PubMed

Simonovic, Slobodan P

2002-01-01

The WorldWater system dynamics model has been developed for modeling the global world water balance and capturing the dynamic character of the main variables affecting water availability and use in the future. Despite not being a novel approach, system dynamics offers a new way of addressing complex systems. WorldWater simulations are clearly demonstrating the strong feedback relation between water availability and different aspects of world development. Results of numerous simulations are contradictory to the assumption made by many global modelers that water is not an issue on the global scale. Two major observations can be made from early simulations: (a) the use of clean water for dilution and transport of wastewater, if not dealt with in other ways, imposes a major stress on the global world water balance; and (b) water use by different sectors is demonstrating quite different dynamics than predicted by classical forecasting tools and other water-models. Inherent linkages between water quantity and quality sectors with food, industry, persistent pollution, technology, and non-renewable resources sectors of the model create shoot and collapse behavior in water use dynamics. This paper discusses a number of different water-related scenarios and their implications on the global water balance. In particular, two extreme scenarios (business as usual - named "Chaos", and unlimited desalination - named "Ocean") are presented in the paper. Based on the conclusions derived from these two extreme cases a set of more moderate and realistic scenarios (named "Conservation") is proposed and their consequences on the global water balance are evaluated.

Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model: SECTORAL WATER MANAGEMENT IN IA-ESM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, Nathalie; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Leung, L. Ruby

To advance understanding of the interactions between human activities and the water cycle, an integrated terrestrial water cycle component has been developed for Earth system models. This includes a land surface model fully coupled to a river routing model and a generic water management model to simulate natural and regulated flows. A global integrated assessment model and its regionalized version for the U.S. are used to simulate water demand consistent with the energy technology and socio-economics scenarios. Human influence on the hydrologic cycle includes regulation and storage from reservoirs, consumptive use and withdrawal from multiple sectors ( irrigation and non-irrigation)more » and overall redistribution of water resources in space and time. As groundwater provides an important source of water supply for irrigation and other uses, the integrated modeling framework has been extended with a simplified representation of groundwater as an additional supply source, and return flow generated from differences between withdrawals and consumptive uses from both groundwater and surface water systems. The groundwater supply and return flow modules are evaluated by analyzing the simulated regulated flow, reservoir storage and supply deficit for irrigation and non-irrigation sectors over major hydrologic regions of the conterminous U.S. The modeling framework is then used to provide insights on the reliability of water resources by isolating the reliability due to return flow and/or groundwater sources of water. Our results show that high sectoral ratio of withdrawals over consumptive demand adds significant stress on the water resources management that can be alleviated by reservoir storage capacity. The return flow representation therefore exhibits a clear east-west contrast in its hydrologic signature, as well as in its ability to help meet water demand. Groundwater use has a limited hydrologic signature but the most pronounced signature is in terms of decreasing water supply deficit. The combined return flow and groundwater use signature conserves the east-west constrast with overall uncertainties due to the groundwater-return flow representation, varying ratios combined with different hydroclimate conditions, storage infrastructures, sectoral water uses and dependence on groundwater. The redistribution of surface and groundwater by human activities, and the uncertainties in their representation have important implications to the water and energy balances in the Earth system and land-atmosphere interactions.« less

The Effect of Precipitating Electrons and Ions on Ionospheric Conductance and Inner Magnetospheric Electric Fields 142106

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Lemon, C.; Hecht, J. H.; Evans, J. S.; Boyd, A. J.

2016-12-01

We investigate how scattering of electrons by waves and of ions by field-line curvature in the inner magnetosphere affect precipitating energy flux distributions and how the precipitating particles modify the ionospheric conductivity and electric potentials during magnetic storms. We examine how particle precipitation in the evening sector affects the development of the Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream (SAPS) electric field that is observed at sub-auroral latitudes in that sector as well as the electric field in the morning sector. Our approach is to use the magnetically and electrically self-consistent Rice Convection Model - Equilibrium (RCM-E) of the inner magnetosphere to simulate the stormtime precipitating particle distributions and the electric field. We use parameterized rates of whistler-generated electron pitch-angle scattering from Orlova and Shprits [JGR, 2014] that depend on equatorial radial distance, magnetic activity (Kp), and magnetic local time (MLT) outside the simulated plasmasphere. Inside the plasmasphere, parameterized scattering rates due to hiss [Orlova et al., GRL, 2014] are employed. Our description for the rate of ion scattering is more simplistic. We assume that the ions are scattered at a fraction of strong pitch-angle scattering where the fraction is scaled by epsilon, the ratio of the gyroradius to the field-line radius of curvature, when epsilon is greater than 0.1. We compare simulated trapped and precipitating electron/ion flux distributions with measurements from Van Allen Probes/MagEIS, POES and DMSP, respectively, to validate the particle loss models. DMSP observations of electric fields are compared with the simulation results. We discuss the effect of precipitating electrons and ions on the SAPS and the inner magnetospheric electric field through the data-model comparisons.

Fuel loading of PeBR for a long operation life on the lunar surface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schriener, T. M.; Chemical and Nuclear Engineering Dept., Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; El-Genk, M. S.

2012-07-01

The Pellet Bed Reactor (PeBR) power system could provide 99.3 kW e to a lunar outpost for 66 full power years and is designed for no single point failures. The core of this fast energy spectrum reactor consists of three sectors that are neutronically and thermally coupled, but hydraulically independent. Each sector has a separate Closed Brayton Cycle (CBC) loop for energy conversion and separate water heat-pipes radiator panels for heat rejection. He-Xe (40 g/mole) binary gas mixture serves as the reactor coolant and CBC working fluid. On the lunar surface, the emplaced PeBR below grade is loaded with sphericalmore » fuel pellets (1-cm in dia.). It is launched unfueled and the pellets are launched in separate subcritical canisters, one for each core sector. This paper numerically simulates the transient loading of a core sector with fuel pellets on the Moon. The simulation accounts for the dynamic interaction of the pellets during loading and calculates the axial and radial distributions of the volume porosity in the sector. The pellets pack randomly with a volume porosity of 0.39 - 0.41 throughout most of the sector, except near the walls the local porosity is higher. (authors)« less

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Influence on North Atlantic Sector Surface Air Temperature and its Predictability in the Kiel Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, M.

2017-12-01

We investigate the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on the North Atlantic sector surface air temperature (SAT) in two multi-millennial control integrations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). One model version employs a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic, while the other does not. A clear influence of the AMOC on North Atlantic sector SAT only is simulated in the corrected model that depicts much reduced upper ocean salinity and temperature biases in comparison to the uncorrected model. Further, the model with much reduced biases depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector relative to the uncorrected model. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected model is due to a stronger and more variable AMOC and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SST and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.

Ionospheric disturbances in low- and middle-latitudes induced by neutral winds and vertical ExB drift during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, W. K.; Kil, H.; Krall, J.

2016-12-01

Significant longitudinal and latitudinal modulations in plasma density were observed by satellites during the 17 March 2015 storm. Pronounced equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) and ionization trough developed in the Indian sector (60°-90°E), whereas those features did not appear in the African sector (20°-40°E). Significant ionospheric uplift was observed in the Indian sector, but the uplift was ignorable in the African sector. The vertical ExB drift is an important factor for the longitudinal variation of the ionospheric morphology, but the observed latitudinal density profiles are not explained satisfactorily by the effect of the vertical ExB drift alone. In this study, we investigate the combined effect of vertical ExB drift and meridional winds by conducting SAMI2 (Sam2 is Another Model of the Ionosphere) model simulations. By comparing the model results with satellite observations, we will assess the ionospheric conditions in the Indian and African sectors. The observations of Defense Meteorological satellite Program, Swarm, and Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellites will be analyzed for this purpose.

Simulating Impacts of Disruptions to Liquid Fuels Infrastructure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, Michael; Corbet, Thomas F.; Baker, Arnold B.

This report presents a methodology for estimating the impacts of events that damage or disrupt liquid fuels infrastructure. The impact of a disruption depends on which components of the infrastructure are damaged, the time required for repairs, and the position of the disrupted components in the fuels supply network. Impacts are estimated for seven stressing events in regions of the United States, which were selected to represent a range of disruption types. For most of these events the analysis is carried out using the National Transportation Fuels Model (NTFM) to simulate the system-level liquid fuels sector response. Results are presentedmore » for each event, and a brief cross comparison of event simulation results is provided.« less

A comparison of fuel savings in the residential and commercial sectors generated by the installation of solar heating and cooling systems under three tax credit scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moden, R.

An analysis of expected energy savings between 1977 and 1980 under three different solar tax credit scenarios is presented. The results were obtained through the solar heating and cooling of buildings (SHACOB) commercialization model. This simulation provides projected savings of conventional fuels through the installation of solar heating and cooling systems on buildings in the residential and commercial sectors. The three scenarios analyzed considered the tax credits contained in the Windfall Profits Tax of April 1980, the National Tax Act of November 1978, and a case where no tax credit is in effect.

Penetration of Large Scale Electric Field to Inner Magnetosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S. H.; Fok, M. C. H.; Sibeck, D. G.; Wygant, J. R.; Spence, H. E.; Larsen, B.; Reeves, G. D.; Funsten, H. O.

2015-12-01

The direct penetration of large scale global electric field to the inner magnetosphere is a critical element in controlling how the background thermal plasma populates within the radiation belts. These plasma populations provide the source of particles and free energy needed for the generation and growth of various plasma waves that, at critical points of resonances in time and phase space, can scatter or energize radiation belt particles to regulate the flux level of the relativistic electrons in the system. At high geomagnetic activity levels, the distribution of large scale electric fields serves as an important indicator of how prevalence of strong wave-particle interactions extend over local times and radial distances. To understand the complex relationship between the global electric fields and thermal plasmas, particularly due to the ionospheric dynamo and the magnetospheric convection effects, and their relations to the geomagnetic activities, we analyze the electric field and cold plasma measurements from Van Allen Probes over more than two years period and simulate a geomagnetic storm event using Coupled Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Model (CIMI). Our statistical analysis of the measurements from Van Allan Probes and CIMI simulations of the March 17, 2013 storm event indicate that: (1) Global dawn-dusk electric field can penetrate the inner magnetosphere inside the inner belt below L~2. (2) Stronger convections occurred in the dusk and midnight sectors than those in the noon and dawn sectors. (3) Strong convections at multiple locations exist at all activity levels but more complex at higher activity levels. (4) At the high activity levels, strongest convections occur in the midnight sectors at larger distances from the Earth and in the dusk sector at closer distances. (5) Two plasma populations of distinct ion temperature isotropies divided at L-Shell ~2, indicating distinct heating mechanisms between inner and outer radiation belts. (6) CIMI simulations reveal alternating penetration and shielding electric fields during the main phase of the geomagnetic storm, indicating an impulsive nature of the large scale penetrating electric field in regulating the gain and loss of radiation belt particles. We will present the statistical analysis and simulations results.

DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PLANS, DEFINED BENEFIT PLANS, AND THE ACCUMULATION OF RETIREMENT WEALTH

PubMed Central

Poterba, James; Rauh, Joshua; Venti, Steven; Wise, David

2010-01-01

The private pension structure in the United States, once dominated by defined benefit (DB) plans, is currently divided between defined contribution (DC) and DB plans. Wealth accumulation in DC plans depends on the participant's contribution behavior and on financial market returns, while accumulation in DB plans is sensitive to a participant's labor market experience and to plan parameters. This paper simulates the distribution of retirement wealth under representative DB and DC plans. It uses data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to explore how asset returns, earnings histories, and retirement plan characteristics contribute to the variation in retirement wealth outcomes. We simulate DC plan accumulation by randomly assigning individuals a share of wages that they and their employer contribute to the plan. We consider several possible asset allocation strategies, with asset returns drawn from the historical return distribution. Our DB plan simulations draw earnings histories from the HRS, and randomly assign each individual a pension plan drawn from a sample of large private and public defined benefit plans. The simulations yield distributions of both DC and DB wealth at retirement. Average retirement wealth accruals under current DC plans exceed average accruals under private sector DB plans, although DC plans are also more likely to generate very low retirement wealth outcomes. The comparison of current DC plans with more generous public sector DB plans is less definitive, because public sector DB plans are more generous on average than their private sector counterparts. PMID:21057597

Impact of Fishery Policy on Fishery Manufacture Output, Economy and Welfare in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firmansyah; Oktavilia, Shanty; Sugiyanto, F. X.; Hamzah, Ibnu N.

2018-02-01

The fisheries sector and fish manufacturing industry are the bright prospect sectors of Indonesia, due to its huge potency, which has not been worked out optimally. In facts, these sectors can generate a large amount of foreign exchange. The Government has paid significant attention to the development of these sectors. This study simulates the impact of fishery policies on the production of fish manufacturing industry, national economic and welfare in Indonesia. By employing the Input-Output Analysis approach, impacts of various government policy scenarios are developed, covering fisheries technical policy, as well as infrastructure development policies in the fisheries sector. This study indicates that the policies in the fisheries sector increase the output of fishery, the production of fish manufacturing industry, the sectoral and national outputs, as well as the level of national income.

Dynamic airspace configuration algorithms for next generation air transportation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jian

The National Airspace System (NAS) is under great pressure to safely and efficiently handle the record-high air traffic volume nowadays, and will face even greater challenge to keep pace with the steady increase of future air travel demand, since the air travel demand is projected to increase to two to three times the current level by 2025. The inefficiency of traffic flow management initiatives causes severe airspace congestion and frequent flight delays, which cost billions of economic losses every year. To address the increasingly severe airspace congestion and delays, the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is proposed to transform the current static and rigid radar based system to a dynamic and flexible satellite based system. New operational concepts such as Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) have been under development to allow more flexibility required to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalances in order to increase the throughput of the entire NAS. In this dissertation, we address the DAC problem in the en route and terminal airspace under the framework of NextGen. We develop a series of algorithms to facilitate the implementation of innovative concepts relevant with DAC in both the en route and terminal airspace. We also develop a performance evaluation framework for comprehensive benefit analyses on different aspects of future sector design algorithms. First, we complete a graph based sectorization algorithm for DAC in the en route airspace, which models the underlying air route network with a weighted graph, converts the sectorization problem into the graph partition problem, partitions the weighted graph with an iterative spectral bipartition method, and constructs the sectors from the partitioned graph. The algorithm uses a graph model to accurately capture the complex traffic patterns of the real flights, and generates sectors with high efficiency while evenly distributing the workload among the generated sectors. We further improve the robustness and efficiency of the graph based DAC algorithm by incorporating the Multilevel Graph Partitioning (MGP) method into the graph model, and develop a MGP based sectorization algorithm for DAC in the en route airspace. In a comprehensive benefit analysis, the performance of the proposed algorithms are tested in numerical simulations with Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS) data. Simulation results demonstrate that the algorithmically generated sectorizations outperform the current sectorizations in different sectors for different time periods. Secondly, based on our experience with DAC in the en route airspace, we further study the sectorization problem for DAC in the terminal airspace. The differences between the en route and terminal airspace are identified, and their influence on the terminal sectorization is analyzed. After adjusting the graph model to better capture the unique characteristics of the terminal airspace and the requirements of terminal sectorization, we develop a graph based geometric sectorization algorithm for DAC in the terminal airspace. Moreover, the graph based model is combined with the region based sector design method to better handle the complicated geometric and operational constraints in the terminal sectorization problem. In the benefit analysis, we identify the contributing factors to terminal controller workload, define evaluation metrics, and develop a bebefit analysis framework for terminal sectorization evaluation. With the evaluation framework developed, we demonstrate the improvements on the current sectorizations with real traffic data collected from several major international airports in the U.S., and conduct a detailed analysis on the potential benefits of dynamic reconfiguration in the terminal airspace. Finally, in addition to the research on the macroscopic behavior of a large number of aircraft, we also study the dynamical behavior of individual aircraft from the perspective of traffic flow management. We formulate the mode-confusion problem as hybrid estimation problem, and develop a state estimation algorithm for the linear hybrid system with continuous-state-dependent transitions based on sparse observations. We also develop an estimated time of arrival prediction algorithm based on the state-dependent transition hybrid estimation algorithm, whose performance is demonstrated with simulations on the landing procedure following the Continuous Descend Approach (CDA) profile.

Understanding the competitive advantage of TPP-related nations from an econophysics perspective: Influence caused by China and the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Lizhi; Guan, Jun; Dong, Xianlei; Wu, Shan

2018-07-01

A new analytical framework of relatively competitive advantages of economies is established in this paper, which involves distinguishing functions of industrial sectors on the global value chain with bipartite graph theory and extracting inter-sector competitive relations through resource allocation process. Furthermore, it introduces network-based quantitative indices to measure the competitive advantage on the level of industrial sector and country respectively, taking scarcity of industrial resources into consideration. Finally, it carries out scenario simulation to analyze impacts on 13 TPP-related countries' competitiveness under four kinds of scenarios. Results show that a TPP without both the United States and China will undermine the two countries' competitiveness, and China's impact on GVC will be truly weaken if a TPP agreement led by the United States is reached and vice versa. Anyway, A TPP including both these two countries would serve the mutual interests

Broadband Circularly Polarized Slot Antenna Loaded by a Multiple-Circular-Sector Patch

PubMed Central

Trinh-Van, Son; Yang, Youngoo; Lee, Kang-Yoon

2018-01-01

In this paper, a microstrip-fed broadband circularly polarized (CP) slot antenna is presented. CP operation can be attained simply by embedding an S-shaped strip. By loading with a multiple-circular-sector patch, which consists of 12 circular-sector patches with identical central angles of 30° and different radii, the 3 dB axial ratio (AR) bandwidth is significantly broadened. To validate the performance of the proposed antenna, an antenna prototype is fabricated and tested. The fabricated antenna is 54 mm × 54 mm × 0.8 mm in size. The measured −10 dB reflection and 3 dB AR bandwidths are 81.06% (1.68–3.97 GHz) and 70.55% (1.89–3.95 GHz), respectively. Within the 3 dB AR bandwidth, the measured peak gain is 3.81 dBic. Reasonable agreement is also obtained between the measured and simulated results. PMID:29762530

Broadband Circularly Polarized Slot Antenna Loaded by a Multiple-Circular-Sector Patch.

PubMed

Trinh-Van, Son; Yang, Youngoo; Lee, Kang-Yoon; Hwang, Keum Cheol

2018-05-15

In this paper, a microstrip-fed broadband circularly polarized (CP) slot antenna is presented. CP operation can be attained simply by embedding an S-shaped strip. By loading with a multiple-circular-sector patch, which consists of 12 circular-sector patches with identical central angles of 30° and different radii, the 3 dB axial ratio (AR) bandwidth is significantly broadened. To validate the performance of the proposed antenna, an antenna prototype is fabricated and tested. The fabricated antenna is 54 mm × 54 mm × 0.8 mm in size. The measured -10 dB reflection and 3 dB AR bandwidths are 81.06% (1.68⁻3.97 GHz) and 70.55% (1.89⁻3.95 GHz), respectively. Within the 3 dB AR bandwidth, the measured peak gain is 3.81 dBic. Reasonable agreement is also obtained between the measured and simulated results.

A Human-in-the Loop Exploration of the Dynamic Airspace Configuration Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Homola, Jeffrey; Lee, Paul U.; Prevot, Thomas; Lee, Hwasoo; Kessell, Angela; Brasil, Connie; Smith, Nancy

2010-01-01

An exploratory human-in-the-loop study was conducted to better understand the impact of Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) on air traffic controllers. To do so, a range of three progressively more aggressive algorithmic approaches to sectorizations were chosen. Sectorizations from these algorithms were used to test and quantify the range of impact on the controller and traffic. Results show that traffic count was more equitably distributed between the four test sectors and duration of counts over MAP were progressively lower as the magnitude of boundary change increased. However, taskload and workload were also shown to increase with the increase in aggressiveness and acceptability of the boundary changes decreased. Overall, simulated operations of the DAC concept did not appear to compromise safety. Feedback from the participants highlighted the importance of limiting some aspects of boundary changes such as amount of volume gained or lost and the extent of change relative to the initial airspace design.

Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

2017-06-01

Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference? Results from ISI-MIP the first Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, K.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

2012-12-01

The Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. Over 25 climate impact modelling teams from around the world, working within the agriculture, water, biomes, infrastructure and health sectors, are collaborating to find answers to the question "What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference?". The analysis is based on common, bias-corrected climate projections, and socio-economic pathways. The first, fast-tracked phase of the ISI-MIP has a focus on global impact models. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. Novel metrics, developed to emphasize societal impacts, will be used to identify regional 'hot-spots' of climate change impacts, as well as to quantify the cross-sectoral impact of the increasing frequency of extreme events in future climates. We present here first results from the Fast-Track phase of the project covering impact simulations in the biomes, agriculture and water sectors, in which the societal impacts of climate change are quantified for different levels of global warming. We also discuss the design of the scenario set-up and impact indicators chosen to suit the unique cross-sectoral, multi-model nature of the project.

Monte Carlo simulation of a dynamical fermion problem: The light q sup 2 q sup 2 system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grondin, G.

1991-01-01

We present results from a Guided Random Walk Monte Carlo simulation of the light q{sup 2}{bar q}{sup 2} system in a Coulomb-plus-linear quark potential model using an Intel iPSC/860 hypercube. A solvable model problem is first considered, after which we study the full q{sup 2}{bar q}{sup 2} system in (J,I) = (2,2) and (2,0) sectors. We find evidence for no bound states below the vector-vector threshold in these systems. 17 refs., 6 figs.

Dynamic bottleneck elimination in mattress manufacturing line using theory of constraints.

PubMed

Gundogar, Emin; Sari, Murat; Kokcam, Abdullah H

2016-01-01

There is a tough competition in the furniture sector like other sectors. Along with the varying product range, production system should also be renewed on a regular basis and the production costs should be kept under control. In this study, spring mattress manufacturing line of a furniture manufacturing company is analyzed. The company wants to increase its production output with new investments. The objective is to find the bottlenecks in production line in order to balance the semi-finished material flow. These bottlenecks are investigated and several different scenarios are tested to improve the current manufacturing system. The problem with a main theme based on the elimination of the bottleneck is solved using Goldratt and Cox's theory of constraints with a simulation based heuristic method. Near optimal alternatives are determined by system models built in Arena 13.5 simulation software. Results show that approximately 46 % capacity enhancements with 2 buffer stocks have increased average production by 88.8 %.

Analysis of Macro-micro Simulation Models for Service-Oriented Public Platform: Coordination of Networked Services and Measurement of Public Values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Yumiko

When service sectors are a major driver for the growth of the world economy, we are challenged to implement service-oriented infrastructure as e-Gov platform to achieve further growth and innovation for both developed and developing countries. According to recent trends in service industry, it is clarified that main factors for the growth of service sectors are investment into knowledge, trade, and the enhanced capacity of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). In addition, the design and deployment of public service platform require appropriate evaluation methodology. Reflecting these observations, this paper proposes macro-micro simulation approach to assess public values (PV) focusing on MSMEs. Linkage aggregate variables (LAVs) are defined to show connection between macro and micro impacts of public services. As a result, the relationship of demography, business environment, macro economy, and socio-economic impact are clarified and their values are quantified from the behavioral perspectives of citizens and firms.

Simulation of wake effects between two wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, K. S.; Réthoré, P.-E.; Palma, J.; Hevia, B. G.; Prospathopoulos, J.; Peña, A.; Ott, S.; Schepers, G.; Palomares, A.; van der Laan, M. P.; Volker, P.

2015-06-01

SCADA data, recorded on the downstream wind farm, has been used to identify flow cases with visible clustering effects. The inflow condition is derived from a partly undisturbed wind turbine, due to lack of mast measurements. The SCADA data analysis concludes that centre of the deficit for the downstream wind farm with disturbed inflow has a distinct visible maximum deficit zone located only 5-10D downstream from the entrance. This zone, representing 20-30% speed reduction, increases and moves downstream for increasing cluster effect and is not visible outside a flow sector of 20-30°. The eight flow models represented in this benchmark include both RANS models, mesoscale models and engineering models. The flow cases, identified according to the wind speed level and inflow sector, have been simulated and validated with the SCADA results. The model validation concludes that all models more or less are able to predict the location and size of the deficit zone inside the downwind wind farm.

Optimising The Available Scarce Water Resources At European Scale In A Modelling Environment: Results And Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Gentile, Alessandro; Udias, Angel; Bouraoui, Faycal

2013-04-01

As a next step to European drought monitoring and forecasting, which is covered in the European Drought Observatory (EDO) activity of JRC, a modeling environment has been developed to assess optimum measures to match water availability and water demand, while keeping ecological, water quality and flood risk aspects also into account. A multi-modelling environment has been developed to assess combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. These simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of those measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index, Environmental Flow indicators, low-flow frequency, N and P concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the industrial sector, and the public sector. Also, potential flood damage of a 100-year return period flood has been used as an indicator. This modeling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the land use LUMP model, the water quantity LISFLOOD model, the water quality EPIC model, the combined water quantity/quality and hydro-economic LISQUAL model and a multi-criteria optimization routine. A python interface platform (IMO) has been built to link the different models. The work was carried out in the framework of a new European Commission policy document "Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water Resources", COM(2012)673), launched in November 2012. Simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index, Environmental Flow indicators, N and P concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector. Also, potential flood damage of a 100-year return period flood has been used as an indicator. The study has shown that technically this modelling software environment can deliver optimum scenario combinations of packages of measures that improve various water quantity and water quality indicators, but that additional work is needed before final conclusions can be made using the tool. Further work is necessary, especially in the economic loss estimations, the water prices and price-elasticity, as well as the implementation and maintenance costs of individual scenarios. First results and challenges will be presented and discussed.

Physiological adaptation during short distance triathlon swimming and cycling sectors simulation.

PubMed

González-Haro, Carlos; González-de-Suso, José Manuel; Padulles, Josep Ma; Drobnic, Franchek; Escanero, Jesús Fernando

2005-11-15

The aim of this study was to typify cardiorespiratory and metabolic adaptation capacity at race pace of high-level triathletes during simulations of short distance triathlon swimming sector, first transition and cycling sector. Six national and international-level triathletes performed a 1500 m swimming trial followed by a transition and one hour on ergocycle at race pace, with sequenced measures of blood lactate concentration, gas exchange and heart rate recording. The mean speed obtained in the swimming sector was 1.29+/-0.07 m s(-1), matching 98+/-2% of MAS (Maximal Aerobic Speed), lactate concentration 6.8+/-2.1 mM and heart rate 162+/-15 beats min(-1). In the cycling sector, the mean power was 266+/-34 W, matching 77+/-10% of MAP (Maximal Aerobic Power), oxygen uptake 3788+/-327 mL min(-1) (82.8% of VO2max), heart rate 162+/-13 beats min(-1) (92% of maximal HR) and ventilation 112.8+/-20.8 L min(-1). MAS was correlated with performance in swimming sector (r = 0.944; P < 0.05). Despite intake 1.08+/-0.44 L of a solution with 8% of sugars, a significant loss of body weight (2.80%; P < 0.01) was observed. Changes in cycling power, speed and frequency, especially towards the end of the effort, were also found. By contrast, differences in lactate concentration and in cardiorespiratory or metabolic variables between the end of the swimming sector and the end of the first transition did not appear. In conclusion, this study remarks different relative intensities in cycling and swimming sectors. The observed loss of body weight does not modify pedalling economy in national and international-level athletes during the cycling sector, where effort intensity adapts itself to the one found in individual lactate threshold. However, changes in competition tactics and other effects, such as drafting in swimming and cycling, could alter the intensities established in this study for each sector.

Nonzero-Sum Relationships in Mitigating Urban Carbon Emissions: A Dynamic Network Simulation.

PubMed

Chen, Shaoqing; Chen, Bin; Su, Meirong

2015-10-06

The "stove-pipe" way of thinking has been mostly used in mitigating carbon emissions and managing socioeconomics because of its convenience of implementation. However, systems-oriented approaches become imperative in pursuit of an efficient regulation of carbon emissions from systems as complicated as urban systems. The aim of this paper is to establish a dynamic network approach that is capable of assessing the effectiveness of carbon emissions mitigation in a more holistic way. A carbon metabolic network is constructed by modeling the carbon flows between economic sectors and environment. With the network shocked by interventions to the sectoral carbon flows, indirect emissions from the city are accounted for under certain carbon mitigation strategies. The nonzero-sum relationships between sectors and environmental components are identified based on utility analysis, which synthesize the nature of direct and indirect network interactions. The results of the case study of Beijing suggest that the stove-pipe mitigation strategies targeted the economic sectors might be not as efficient as they were expected. A direct cutting in material or energy import to the sectors may result in a rebound in indirect emissions and thus fails to achieve the carbon mitigation goal of the city as a whole. A promising way of foreseeing the dynamic mechanism of emissions is to analyze the nonzero-sum relationships between important urban components. Thinking cities as systems of interactions, the network approach is potentially a strong tool for appraising and filtering mitigation strategies of carbon emissions.

Functional end-arterial circulation of the choroid assessed by using fat embolism and electric circuit simulation.

PubMed

Lee, Ji Eun; Ahn, Ki Su; Park, Keun Heung; Pak, Kang Yeun; Kim, Hak Jin; Byon, Ik Soo; Park, Sung Who

2017-05-30

The discrepancy in the choroidal circulation between anatomy and function has remained unsolved for several decades. Postmortem cast studies revealed extensive anastomotic channels, but angiographic studies indicated end-arterial circulation. We carried out experimental fat embolism in cats and electric circuit simulation. Perfusion defects were observed in two categories. In the scatter perfusion defects suggesting an embolism at the terminal arterioles, fluorescein dye filled the non-perfused lobule slowly from the adjacent perfused lobule. In the segmental perfusion defects suggesting occlusion of the posterior ciliary arteries, the hypofluorescent segment became perfused by spontaneous resolution of the embolism without subsequent smaller infarction. The angiographic findings could be simulated with an electric circuit. Although electric currents flowed to the disconnected lobule, the level was very low compared with that of the connected ones. The choroid appeared to be composed of multiple sectors with no anastomosis to other sectors, but to have its own anastomotic arterioles in each sector. Blood flows through the continuous choriocapillaris bed in an end-arterial nature functionally to follow a pressure gradient due to the drainage through the collector venule.

Using Economic Incentives to Recruit Community College Faculty: Effects of Starting Salary and Healthcare Benefits Plan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winter, Paul A.; Petrosko, Joseph M.; Rodriguez, Glenn

2007-01-01

Staffing the nation's community colleges with qualified faculty is an emerging problem. The problem results from massive retirements among members of the post-WW II "baby boom" generation and intense competition from other sectors of the economy for scarce human talent. This study was a faculty-recruitment simulation designed to investigate the…

Impact of shipping emissions on ozone levels over Europe: assessing the relative importance of the Standard Nomenclature for Air Pollution (SNAP) categories.

PubMed

Tagaris, Efthimios; Stergiou, Ioannis; Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni P

2017-06-01

The impact of shipping emissions on ozone mixing ratio over Europe is assessed for July 2006 using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system and the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research anthropogenic emission inventory. Results suggest that ship-induced ozone contribution to the total surface ozone exceeds 5% over the sea and near the coastline, while an increase up to 5% is simulated over a large portion of the European land. The largest impact (i.e., an increase up to 30%) is simulated over the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, shipping emissions are simulated to increase NO 2 mixing ratio more than 90%, locally, and to modify the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere through hydroxyl radical formation (increase by 20-60% over the sea along the European coasts and near the coastal zone). Therefore, emissions from ships may counteract the benefits derived from the anthropogenic emissions reduction strategies over the continent. Simulations suggest regions where shipping emissions have a major impact on ozone mixing ratio compared to individual anthropogenic emission sector categories. Shipping emissions are estimated to play an important role on ozone levels compared to road transport sector near the coastal zone. The impact of shipping emissions on ozone formation is also profound over a great part of the European land compared to the rest of anthropogenic emission categories.

Effect of Precipitating Electrons on Stormtime Inner Magnetospheric Electric Fields during the 17 March 2013 Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Lemon, C. L.; Sazykin, S. Y.; Wolf, R.; Hecht, J. H.; Walterscheid, R. L.; Boyd, A. J.; Turner, D. L.

2015-12-01

We investigate how scattering of electrons by waves in the plasma sheet and plasmasphere affects precipitating energy flux distributions and how the precipitating electrons modify the ionospheric conductivity and electric potentials during the large 17 March 2013 magnetic storm. Of particular interest is how electron precipitation in the evening sector affects the development of the Sub-auroral Polarization Stream (SAPS) electric field that is observed at sub-auroral latitudes in that sector. Our approach is to use the magnetically and electrically self-consistent Rice Convection Model - Equilibrium (RCM-E) of the inner magnetosphere to simulate the stormtime precipitating electron distributions and the electric field. We use parameterized rates of whistler-generated electron pitch-angle scattering from Orlova and Shprits [JGR, 2014] that depend on equatorial radial distance, magnetic activity (Kp), and magnetic local time (MLT) outside the simulated plasmasphere. Inside the plasmasphere, parameterized scattering rates due to hiss [Orlova et al., GRL, 2014] are used. We compare simulated trapped and precipitating electron flux distributions with measurements from Van Allen Probes/MagEIS, POES/TED and MEPED, respectively, to validate the electron loss model. Ground-based (SuperDARN) and in-situ (Van Allen Probes/EFW) observations of electric fields are compared with the simulation results. We discuss the effect of precipitating electrons on the SAPS and inner magnetospheric electric field through the data-model comparisons.

Symmetric and anti-symmetric LS hyperon potentials from lattice QCD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishii, Noriyoshi; Murano, Keiko; Nemura, Hidekatsu; Sasaki, Kenji; Inoue, Takashi; HAL QCD Collaboration

2014-09-01

We present recent results of odd-parity hyperon-hyperon potentials from lattice QCD. By using HAL QCD method, we generate hyperon-hyperon potentials from Nambu-Bethe-Salpeter (NBS) wave functions generated by lattice QCD simulation in the flavor SU(3) limit. Potentials in the irreducible flavor SU(3) representations are combined to make a Lambda-N potential which has a strong symmetric LS potential and a weak anti-symmetric LS potential. We discuss a possible cancellation between symmetric and anti-symmetric LS (Lambda-N) potentials after the coupled Sigma-N sector is integrated out. We present recent results of odd-parity hyperon-hyperon potentials from lattice QCD. By using HAL QCD method, we generate hyperon-hyperon potentials from Nambu-Bethe-Salpeter (NBS) wave functions generated by lattice QCD simulation in the flavor SU(3) limit. Potentials in the irreducible flavor SU(3) representations are combined to make a Lambda-N potential which has a strong symmetric LS potential and a weak anti-symmetric LS potential. We discuss a possible cancellation between symmetric and anti-symmetric LS (Lambda-N) potentials after the coupled Sigma-N sector is integrated out. This work is supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 25400244.

Simulating evolution of technology: An aid to energy policy analysis. A case study of strategies to control greenhouse gases in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyboer, John

Issues related to the reduction of greenhouse gases are encumbered with uncertainties for decision makers. Unfortunately, conventional analytical tools generate widely divergent forecasts of the effects of actions designed to mitigate these emissions. "Bottom-up" models show the costs of reducing emissions attained through the penetration of efficient technologies to be low or negative. In contrast, more aggregate "top-down" models show costs of reduction to be high. The methodological approaches of the different models used to simulate energy consumption generate, in part, the divergence found in model outputs. To address this uncertainty and bring convergence, I use a technology-explicit model that simulates turnover of equipment stock as a function of detailed data on equipment costs and stock characteristics and of verified behavioural data related to equipment acquisition and retrofitting. Such detail can inform the decision maker of the effects of actions to reduce greenhouse gases due to changes in (1) technology stocks, (2) products or services, or (3) the mix of fuels used. This thesis involves two main components: (1) the development of a quantitative model to analyse energy demand and (2) the application of this tool to a policy issue, abatement of COsb2 emissions. The analysis covers all of Canada by sector (8 industrial subsectors, residential commercial) and region. An electricity supply model to provide local electricity prices supplemented the quantitative model. Forecasts of growth and structural change were provided by national macroeconomic models. Seven different simulations were applied to each sector in each region including a base case run and three runs simulating emissions charges of 75/tonne, 150/tonne and 225/tonne CO sb2. The analysis reveals that there is significant variation in the costs and quantity of emissions reduction by sector and region. Aggregated results show that Canada can meet both stabilisation targets (1990 levels of emissions by 2000) and reduction targets (20% less than 1990 by 2010), but the cost of meeting reduction targets exceeds 225/tonne. After a review of the results, I provide several reasons for concluding that the costs are overestimated and the emissions reduction underestimated. I also provide several future research options.

Development and application of a mechanistic model to estimate emission of nitrous oxide from UK agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, L.; Syed, B.; Jarvis, S. C.; Sneath, R. W.; Phillips, V. R.; Goulding, K. W. T.; Li, C.

A mechanistic model of N 2O emission from agricultural soil (DeNitrification-DeComposition—DNDC) was modified for application to the UK, and was used as the basis of an inventory of N 2O emission from UK agriculture in 1990. UK-specific input data were added to DNDC's database and the ability to simulate daily C and N inputs from grazing animals and applied animal waste was added to the model. The UK version of the model, UK-DNDC, simulated emissions from 18 different crop types on the 3 areally dominant soils in each county. Validation of the model at the field scale showed that predictions matched observations well. Emission factors for the inventory were calculated from estimates of N 2O emission from UK-DNDC, in order to maintain direct comparability with the IPCC approach. These, along with activity data, were included in a transparent spreadsheet format. Using UK-DNDC, the estimate of N 2O-N emission from UK current agricultural practice in 1990 was 50.9 Gg. This total comprised 31.7 Gg from the soil sector, 5.9 Gg from animals and 13.2 Gg from the indirect sector. The range of this estimate (using the range of soil organic C for each soil used) was 30.5-62.5 Gg N. Estimates of emissions in each sector were compared to those calculated using the IPCC default methodology. Emissions from the soil and indirect sectors were smaller with the UK-DNDC approach than with the IPCC methodology, while emissions from the animal sector were larger. The model runs suggested a relatively large emission from agricultural land that was not attributable to current agricultural practices (33.8 Gg in total, 27.4 Gg from the soil sector). This 'background' component is partly the result of historical agricultural land use. It is not normally included in inventories of emission, but would increase the total emission of N 2O-N from agricultural land in 1990 to 78.3 Gg.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2017-11-01

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Using simulation and data envelopment analysis to evaluate Iraqi regions in producing strategic crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaloob, Ibrahim Z.; Ramli, Razamin; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd

2014-12-01

Productivity of the agriculture sector in Iraq has yet to reach an acceptable level. In this paper, we introduce a practical method to help manage Iraqi agriculture sector to control resources and increase production to meet the modern century requirements of good crops. These important resources are identified as water, fertilizer, natural fertilizer, pesticides and labour. The current agricultural patterns in Iraq affect the strategic crops cultivation in the country and lessen agricultural production to some life-threatening limits. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is a non-parametric tool, is proposed to identify solutions that can maximize farmers' net benefit making an optimal use of the five resources. This model also improves optimal mix of the resources. In reference to the production of each one of the three strategic crops in Iraq, the DEA model is used to find the efficiency of one region among four others in its agriculture sector, with the main problem being the constraint in the number of lands available in the situation. Hence, the simulation technique is used to generate additional regions to the four main regions adopted. This is to resolve the constriction of DEA when the decision making unit is less than the number of variables (outputs and inputs). The result is expected to show the efficiency of each of the evaluated region.

On the movement of tropical cyclone LEHAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasari, Hari Prasad; V, Brahmananda Rao; SSVS, Ramakrishna; Gunta, Paparao; N, Nanaji Rao; P, Ramesh Kumar

2017-12-01

In this paper, an attempt has been made to delineate the physical processes which lead to the westward movement of the North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone LEHAR. The Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model is used to simulate LEHAR with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The results indicate that the model performed well in simulating the characteristics of cyclone compared with the Satellite and other observations. In addition to that all terms of the complete vorticity equation are computed to obtain the contribution of each term for the vorticity tendency. The vorticity tendency is calculated in four sectors, namely northwest, northeast, southwest and southeast and assumed that the cyclone moves from its existing location to the nearest point where the vortices tendency is maximum. It is noticed that the vorticity stretching term contributes most to the positive vorticity tendency. The second highest contribution is from the horizontal advection thus indicating the secondary importance of steering. The distribution of lightening flash rates also showing that the flash rates are higher in the SW and followed by NW sectors of the cyclone indicate more strong convective clouds are in SW sector. The equivalent potential temperatures ( θ e) at different stages of before, during and after the mature stage of the cyclone are also analysed and the analysis reveals that the wind-induced surface heat (WISH) exchange process is a plausible mechanism for the intensification of LEHAR.

Influence of urban shapes on environmental noise: a case study in Aracaju-Brazil.

PubMed

Guedes, Italo C Montalvão; Bertoli, Stelamaris R; Zannin, Paulo H T

2011-12-15

This paper discusses the results of a study about the influence of urban shapes on environmental noise in the city of Aracaju (Brazil). The study, which involved in situ measurements and acoustic simulations using SoundPLAN software, began with an analysis of the current acoustic scenario, followed by the creation and simulation of hypothetical scenarios in as yet unoccupied sectors of the region under study. The acoustic modeling and simulations were based on measurements of equivalent-continuous sound pressure level, LAeq, and vehicle flow data, and on the region's geometrics. The results reveal that the physical characteristics of the urban shape, such as construction density, the existence of open spaces, and the shape and physical position of buildings exert a significant influence on environmental noise. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Robert W.; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

2016-09-01

Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

Scheduling and Separating Departures Crossing Arrival Flows in Shared Airspace

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chevalley, Eric; Parke, Bonny K.; Lee, Paul; Omar, Faisal; Lee, Hwasoo; Beinert, Nancy; Kraut, Joshua M.; Palmer, Everett

2013-01-01

Flight efficiency and reduction of flight delays are among the primary goals of NextGen. In this paper, we propose a concept of shared airspace where departures fly across arrival flows, provided gaps are available in these flows. We have explored solutions to separate departures temporally from arrival traffic and pre-arranged procedures to support controllers' decisions. We conducted a Human-in-the-Loop simulation and assessed the efficiency and safety of 96 departures from the San Jose airport (SJC) climbing across the arrival airspace of the Oakland and San Francisco arrival flows. In our simulation, the SJC tower had a tool to schedule departures to fly across predicted gaps in the arrival flow. When departures were mistimed and separation could not be ensured, a safe but less efficient route was provided to the departures to fly under the arrival flows. A coordination using a point-out procedure allowed the arrival controller to control the SJC departures right after takeoff. We manipulated the accuracy of departure time (accurate vs. inaccurate) as well as which sector took control of the departures after takeoff (departure vs. arrival sector) in a 2x2 full factorial plan. Results show that coordination time decreased and climb efficiency increased when the arrival sector controlled the aircraft right after takeoff. Also, climb efficiency increased when the departure times were more accurate. Coordination was shown to be a critical component of tactical operations in shared airspace. Although workload, coordination, and safety were judged by controllers as acceptable in the simulation, it appears that in the field, controllers would need improved tools and coordination procedures to support this procedure.

Atmospheric Implications of Light Alkane Emissions From the U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, E. V.; Tzompa Sosa, Z. A.; Henderson, B.; Travis, K.; Keller, C.; Sive, B. C.; Helmig, D.; Fried, A.; Herndon, S. C.; Yacovitch, T. I.; Mahieu, E.; Franco, B.

2017-12-01

New efficient drilling techniques triggered a massive growth of unconventional oil and natural gas production in North America starting in 2005. Emissions of a variety of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the oil and gas sector occur during well development and production phases, and emissions to the atmosphere also continue when wells are abandoned. Determining VOC emission fluxes in the context of rapid growth of the oil and natural gas industry presents a big challenge for emission inventories. In the U.S., the latest version of the 2011 National Emission Inventory (NEI2011v6.3) includes updates over important oil and natural gas basins and speciation profiles based on the Western Regional Air Partnership. We incorporated the NEI2011v6.3 into the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to simulate the atmospheric abundances of C2-C5 alkanes over the U.S. attributed to emissions from the oil and gas sector. We present results from a nested high-resolution (0.5 degree x 0.667 degree) simulation over North America. C2-C5 alkane emissions from NEI 2011v6.3 increase across the U.S. compared to the previous NEI 2011 v2 incorporated as default in GEOS-Chem. Ethane (C2H6) and propane (C3H8) emission fluxes increased over important oil and natural gas basins. We compare our simulation to a suite of surface observations, column measurements, and aircraft profiles. Finally, we estimate the contribution that C2-C5 alkanes make to the abundance and production of important secondary species including ozone, peroxy acetyl nitrate, and several ketones.

Compensation Rules for Climate Policy in the Electricity Sector

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burtraw, Dallas; Palmer, Karen

2008-01-01

Most previous cap and trade programs have distributed emission allowances for free to incumbent producers. However, in the electricity sector the value of CO[subscript 2] allowances may be far in excess of costs to industry and giving them away to firms diverts allowance value from other purposes. Using a detailed simulation model, this paper…

DynMo: Dynamic Simulation Model for Space Reactor Power Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Genk, Mohamed; Tournier, Jean-Michel

2005-02-01

A Dynamic simulation Model (DynMo) for space reactor power systems is developed using the SIMULINK® platform. DynMo is modular and could be applied to power systems with different types of reactors, energy conversion, and heat pipe radiators. This paper presents a general description of DynMo-TE for a space power system powered by a Sectored Compact Reactor (SCoRe) and that employs off-the-shelf SiGe thermoelectric converters. SCoRe is liquid metal cooled and designed for avoidance of a single point failure. The reactor core is divided into six equal sectors that are neutronically, but not thermal-hydraulically, coupled. To avoid a single point failure in the power system, each reactor sector has its own primary and secondary loops, and each loop is equipped with an electromagnetic (EM) pump. A Power Conversion assembly (PCA) and a Thermoelectric Conversion Assembly (TCA) of the primary and secondary EM pumps thermally couple each pair of a primary and a secondary loop. The secondary loop transports the heat rejected by the PCA and the pumps TCA to a rubidium heat pipes radiator panel. The primary loops transport the thermal power from the reactor sector to the PCAs for supplying a total of 145-152 kWe to the load at 441-452 VDC, depending on the selections of the primary and secondary liquid metal coolants. The primary and secondary coolant combinations investigated are lithium (Li)/Li, Li/sodium (Na), Na-Na, Li/NaK-78 and Na/NaK-78, for which the reactor exit temperature is kept below 1250 K. The results of a startup transient of the system from an initial temperature of 500 K are compared and discussed.

Quantitative Simulation of a Magnetospheric Substorm. 3. Plasmaspheric Electric Fields and Evolution of the Plasmapause.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-01-25

plasmaspheric electric fields during magnetically disturbed periods are based on incoherent scatter radar results fromn St. Santin [ Testud et al., 1975...Millstone Hill radar results showing westward F-region ion drifts of almost 200 m/sec in the afternoon sector on 14 May, 1969. Testud et al. [1975...electrojet (AE) index. Testud et al. [1975] and Blanc et al. £1977] have both presented St. Santin backscatter measurements that show westward and

The mineral sector and economic development in Ghana: A computable general equilibrium analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addy, Samuel N.

A computable general equilibrium model (CGE) model is formulated for conducting mineral policy analysis in the context of national economic development for Ghana. The model, called GHANAMIN, places strong emphasis on production, trade, and investment. It can be used to examine both micro and macro economic impacts of policies associated with mineral investment, taxation, and terms of trade changes, as well as mineral sector performance impacts due to technological change or the discovery of new deposits. Its economywide structure enables the study of broader development policy with a focus on individual or multiple sectors, simultaneously. After going through a period of contraction for about two decades, mining in Ghana has rebounded significantly and is currently the main foreign exchange earner. Gold alone contributed 44.7 percent of 1994 total export earnings. GHANAMIN is used to investigate the economywide impacts of mineral tax policies, world market mineral prices changes, mining investment, and increased mineral exports. It is also used for identifying key sectors for economic development. Various simulations were undertaken with the following results: Recently implemented mineral tax policies are welfare increasing, but have an accompanying decrease in the output of other export sectors. World mineral price rises stimulate an increase in real GDP; however, this increase is less than real GDP decreases associated with price declines. Investment in the non-gold mining sector increases real GDP more than investment in gold mining, because of the former's stronger linkages to the rest of the economy. Increased mineral exports are very beneficial to the overall economy. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in mining increases welfare more so than domestic capital, which is very limited. Mining investment and the increased mineral exports since 1986 have contributed significantly to the country's economic recovery, with gold mining accounting for 95 percent of the mineral sector's contribution. The mining sector in general is identified as a leading sector for economic development.

Adding Spice to Vanilla LCDM simulations: Alternative Cosmologies & Lighting up Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahan Elahi, Pascal

2015-08-01

Cold Dark Matter simulations have formed the backbone of our theoretical understanding of cosmological structure formation. Predictions from the Lambda Cold Dark Matter (LCDM) cosmology, where the Universe contains two dark components, namely Dark Matter & Dark Energy, are in excellent agreement with the Large-Scale Structures observed, i.e., the distribution of galaxies across cosmic time. However, this paradigm is in tension with observations at small-scales, from the number and properties of satellite galaxies around galaxies such as the Milky Way and Andromeda, to the lensing statistics of massive galaxy clusters. I will present several alternative models of cosmology (from Warm Dark Matter to coupled Dark Matter-Dark Energy models) and how they compare to vanilla LCDM by studying formation of groups and clusters dark matter only and adiabatic hydrodynamical zoom simulations. I will show how modifications to the dark sector can lead to some surprising results. For example, Warm Dark Matter, so often examined on small satellite galaxies scales, can be probed observationally using weak lensing at cluster scales. Coupled dark sectors, where dark matter decays into dark energy and experiences an effective gravitational potential that differs from that experienced by normal matter, is effectively hidden away from direct observations of galaxies. Studies like these are vital if we are to pinpoint observations which can look for unique signatures of the physics that governs the hidden Universe. Finally, I will discuss how all of these predictions are affected by uncertain galaxy formation physics. I will present results from a major comparison study of numerous hydrodynamical codes, the nIFTY cluster comparison project. This comparison aims to understand the code-to-code scatter in the properties of dark matter haloes and the galaxies that reside in them. We find that even in purely adiabatic simulations, different codes form clusters with very different X-ray profiles. The galaxies that form in these simulations, which all use codes that attempt to reproduce the observed galaxy population via not unreasonable subgrid physics, vary in stellar mass, morphology and gas fraction, sometimes by an order of magnitude. I will end with a discussion of precision cosmology in light of these results.

The Impact of Individual Anthropogenic Emissions Sectors on the Global Burden of Human Mortality due to Ambient Air Pollution

PubMed Central

Silva, Raquel A.; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M.; West, J. Jason

2016-01-01

Background: Exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can cause adverse health effects, including premature mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer. Recent studies quantify global air pollution mortality but not the contribution of different emissions sectors, or they focus on a specific sector. Objectives: We estimated the global mortality burden of anthropogenic ozone and PM2.5, and the impact of five emissions sectors, using a global chemical transport model at a finer horizontal resolution (0.67° × 0.5°) than previous studies. Methods: We performed simulations for 2005 using the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), zeroing out all anthropogenic emissions and emissions from specific sectors (All Transportation, Land Transportation, Energy, Industry, and Residential and Commercial). We estimated premature mortality using a log-linear concentration–response function for ozone and an integrated exposure–response model for PM2.5. Results: We estimated 2.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 3.33) million deaths/year related to anthropogenic PM2.5, with the highest mortality in East Asia (48%). The Residential and Commercial sector had the greatest impact globally—675 (95% CI: 428, 899) thousand deaths/year—and in most regions. Land Transportation dominated in North America (32% of total anthropogenic PM2.5 mortality), and it had nearly the same impact (24%) as Residential and Commercial (27%) in Europe. Anthropogenic ozone was associated with 493 (95% CI: 122, 989) thousand deaths/year, with the Land Transportation sector having the greatest impact globally (16%). Conclusions: The contributions of emissions sectors to ambient air pollution–related mortality differ among regions, suggesting region-specific air pollution control strategies. Global sector-specific actions targeting Land Transportation (ozone) and Residential and Commercial (PM2.5) sectors would particularly benefit human health. Citation: Silva RA, Adelman Z, Fry MM, West JJ. 2016. The impact of individual anthropogenic emissions sectors on the global burden of human mortality due to ambient air pollution. Environ Health Perspect 124:1776–1784; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP177 PMID:27177206

Mass loss at Saturn: The contribution of plasmoids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivelson, M.; Jia, X.; Jackman, C. M.

2017-12-01

Jia and Kivelson (2012) showed that an MHD simulation of Saturn's magnetosphere including rotating field-aligned currents generates a plasmoid on each rotation period. For southern summer conditions, plasmoids form through reconnection in the tail near midnight at a rotation phase for which the core magnetic field perturbation points towards the planet in the LT sector of the release. After release, they move northward and outward in the post midnight sector. Mass loss is found to be dominated by plasmoid release, and to compare closely to the mass source rate; much of the outward mass flux is found in the 0300-0900 LT sector. However, studies of plasmoid signatures in Cassini magnetometer data conclude that releases do not occur each rotation period and infer mass loss rates far smaller than Saturn's mass source rate (Jackman et al., 2014). Studies based on plasma data also infer loss rates smaller than the source rate from Enceladus (Thomsen, 2013). The simulation suggests that plasmoid occurrence frequency depends strongly on local time and latitude. Indeed, in regions near the equator and near midnight, where plasmoids are present in the simulation, the occurrence frequency of plasmoid releases inferred from magnetometer data is higher than elsewhere (Jackman et al., 2016; Smith et al., 2016), with occurrence probability peaking at the phase predicted by the simulation. We consider how the observational limitations should be modified to establish mass loss rates and plasmoid occurrence frequency.

Two Model-Based Methods for Policy Analyses of Fine Particulate Matter Control in China: Source Apportionment and Source Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zheng, B.; Zhang, Q.; He, K.

2013-12-01

Anthropogenic emissions have been controlled in recent years in China to mitigate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution. Recent studies show that sulfate dioxide (SO2)-only control cannot reduce total PM2.5 levels efficiently. Other species such as nitrogen oxide, ammonia, black carbon, and organic carbon may be equally important during particular seasons. Furthermore, each species is emitted from several anthropogenic sectors (e.g., industry, power plant, transportation, residential and agriculture). On the other hand, contribution of one emission sector to PM2.5 represents contributions of all species in this sector. In this work, two model-based methods are used to identify the most influential emission sectors and areas to PM2.5. The first method is the source apportionment (SA) based on the Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) available in the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) driven by meteorological predictions of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The second method is the source sensitivity (SS) based on an adjoint integration technique (AIT) available in the GEOS-Chem model. The SA method attributes simulated PM2.5 concentrations to each emission group, while the SS method calculates their sensitivity to each emission group, accounting for the non-linear relationship between PM2.5 and its precursors. Despite their differences, the complementary nature of the two methods enables a complete analysis of source-receptor relationships to support emission control policies. Our objectives are to quantify the contributions of each emission group/area to PM2.5 in the receptor areas and to intercompare results from the two methods to gain a comprehensive understanding of the role of emission sources in PM2.5 formation. The results will be compared in terms of the magnitudes and rankings of SS or SA of emitted species and emission groups/areas. GEOS-Chem with AIT is applied over East Asia at a horizontal grid resolution of 0.5° (Lat) × 0.67° (Lon). WRF/CAMx with PSAT is applied to nested grids: 36-km × 36-km over China and 12-km × 12-km over northern China. These simulations are performed for 2006 and 2011. Beijing and northern Hebei are selected as representative receptor areas. Simulated surface concentrations by both models are evaluated with available observations in China. Focusing on inorganic aerosols (sulfate, nitrate and ammonium), preliminary SS results from GEOS-Chem/AIT at Beijing identify the top three major emission sectors to be agriculture, residential, and transportation in winter and agriculture, industry and power plant in summer. The top four source areas are northern Hebei, local, Neimenggu, and Liaoning in winter and northern Hebei, local, Shandong, and southern Hebei in summer. The synthesis of SS and SA for influential emission groups or areas from this work will provide a quantitative basis for emission control strategy development and policy making for PM2.5 control in China.

An evaluation of 3-D traffic simulation modeling capabilities

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-06-01

The use of 3D modeling in simulation has become the standard for both the military and private sector. Compared to physical models, 3D models are more affordable, more flexible, and can incorporate complex operations. Unlike a physical model, a dynam...

Use of CMIP3 simulations to estimate the changes of temperature indicators over France and Europe during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leboucher, V.; Couillaux, A.; Parey, S.; Fil, C.

2007-12-01

Projections of changes in temperature are essential to assess the impact of climate change on the energy supply sector as heating and cooling, energy demand highly depends on temperature. A selection of temperature indicators and their changes are examined for several simulations using SRES Emission Scenario A2 from the CMIP3 archive. We compare the present day simulated indicators to those in European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA40 reanalysis The results are analysed for six areas over Europe and two time periods during the 21st century. We focus our study on changes in number and duration of hot and cold events and on changes in heating degree-days and cooling degree-days, which are commonly used to estimate the weather-related variations in energy consumption. Results are presented for the different models with some comparisons to the regional model simulations from the European PRUDENCE project to evaluate uncertainties.

Adaptive packet switch with an optical core (demonstrator)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdo, Ahmad; Bishtein, Vadim; Clark, Stewart A.; Dicorato, Pino; Lu, David T.; Paredes, Sofia A.; Taebi, Sareh; Hall, Trevor J.

2004-11-01

A three-stage opto-electronic packet switch architecture is described consisting of a reconfigurable optical centre stage surrounded by two electronic buffering stages partitioned into sectors to ease memory contention. A Flexible Bandwidth Provision (FBP) algorithm, implemented on a soft-core processor, is used to change the configuration of the input sectors and optical centre stage to set up internal paths that will provide variable bandwidth to serve the traffic. The switch is modeled by a bipartite graph built from a service matrix, which is a function of the arriving traffic. The bipartite graph is decomposed by solving an edge-colouring problem and the resulting permutations are used to configure the switch. Simulation results show that this architecture exhibits a dramatic reduction of complexity and increased potential for scalability, at the price of only a modest spatial speed-up k, 1

A multi-assets artificial stock market with zero-intelligence traders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponta, L.; Raberto, M.; Cincotti, S.

2011-01-01

In this paper, a multi-assets artificial financial market populated by zero-intelligence traders with finite financial resources is presented. The market is characterized by different types of stocks representing firms operating in different sectors of the economy. Zero-intelligence traders follow a random allocation strategy which is constrained by finite resources, past market volatility and allocation universe. Within this framework, stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering, fat-tailed distribution of returns and reversion to the mean. Moreover, the cross-correlations between returns of different stocks are studied using methods of random matrix theory. The probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix shows the presence of outliers, similar to those recently observed on real data for business sectors. It is worth noting that business sectors have been recovered in our framework without dividends as only consequence of random restrictions on the allocation universe of zero-intelligence traders. Furthermore, in the presence of dividend-paying stocks and in the case of cash inflow added to the market, the artificial stock market points out the same structural results obtained in the simulation without dividends. These results suggest a significative structural influence on statistical properties of multi-assets stock market.

The role of the health care sector in the U.S. economy.

PubMed

Foley, J

1993-10-01

This Issue Brief discusses factors that contribute to the growth of health care expenditures and the reasons that many individuals, employers, and policymakers consider health expenditures too high. In addition, it describes various industries that make up the health care delivery system and their role in the U.S. economy as employers, producers, exporters, and suppliers of research and development. The report also discusses the economic implications of rising health care expenditures for individuals, employers, and the federal government and the potential impact of proposed health care reform on the health care sector and the U.S. economy as a whole. Health care delivery industries such as pharmaceuticals and medical equipment suppliers have higher than average research and development levels, in addition to a positive balance of trade. Moreover, while the total number of jobs in the private sector declined between 1990 and 1993, the number of jobs in the relatively high paid health services sector continued to grow. In aggregate, employer spending on health care represents only 6.6 percent of total labor costs. In comparison, wages and salaries represent 83 percent of total labor costs. Consequently, the growth rate of health care expenditures has a smaller impact on the growth rate of total compensation than does the growth rate in wages and salaries. Using job multipliers developed by the U.S. Department of Commerce, it is estimated that the 18,600 health care services jobs in Rochester, Minnesota in 1993 created another 32,000 jobs in the area. Any contraction of the health care sector in cities that have a large concentration of employment in health services would result in reduced employment in restaurants, retail stores, janitorial services, and other local businesses. EBRI's simulations estimated that between 200,000 and 1.2 million workers could become unemployed as a direct result of a mandate that employers provide health benefits to their employees, assuming that wages and salaries did not adjust at all. Others find that approximately 50,000 individuals would lost their jobs, assuming that wages and other labor costs adjust downward to completely account for increased costs. As is apparent, the estimates of job loss (and of the total costs of the policy) are extremely sensitive to the assumptions used in the simulation.

Aspen: A microsimulation model of the economy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basu, N.; Pryor, R.J.; Quint, T.

1996-10-01

This report presents, Aspen. Sandia National Laboratories is developing this new agent-based microeconomic simulation model of the U.S. economy. The model is notable because it allows a large number of individual economic agents to be modeled at a high level of detail and with a great degree of freedom. Some features of Aspen are (a) a sophisticated message-passing system that allows individual pairs of agents to communicate, (b) the use of genetic algorithms to simulate the learning of certain agents, and (c) a detailed financial sector that includes a banking system and a bond market. Results from runs of themore » model are also presented.« less

A Polygon Model for Wireless Sensor Network Deployment with Directional Sensing Areas

PubMed Central

Wu, Chun-Hsien; Chung, Yeh-Ching

2009-01-01

The modeling of the sensing area of a sensor node is essential for the deployment algorithm of wireless sensor networks (WSNs). In this paper, a polygon model is proposed for the sensor node with directional sensing area. In addition, a WSN deployment algorithm is presented with topology control and scoring mechanisms to maintain network connectivity and improve sensing coverage rate. To evaluate the proposed polygon model and WSN deployment algorithm, a simulation is conducted. The simulation results show that the proposed polygon model outperforms the existed disk model and circular sector model in terms of the maximum sensing coverage rate. PMID:22303159

Adding Spice to Vanilla LCDM simulations: From Alternative Cosmologies to Lighting up Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahan Elahi, Pascal

2015-08-01

Cold Dark Matter simulations have formed the backbone of our theoretical understanding of cosmological structure formation. Predictions from the Lambda Cold Dark Matter (LCDM) cosmology, in which the Universe contains two major dark components, namely Dark Matter and Dark Energy, are in excellent agreement with the Large-Scale Structures observed, i.e., the distribution of galaxies across cosmic time. However, this paradigm is in tension with observations at small-scales, from the number and properties of satellite galaxies around galaxies such as the Milky Way and Andromeda, to the lensing statistics of massive galaxy clusters. I will present several alternative models of cosmology (from Warm Dark Matter to coupled Dark Matter-Dark Energy models) and how they compare to vanilla LCDM by studying formation of groups and clusters dark matter only and adiabatic hydrodynamical zoom simulations. I will show how modifications to the dark sector can lead to some surprising results. For example, Warm Dark Matter, so often examined on small satellite galaxies scales, can be probed observationally using weak lensing at cluster scales. Coupled dark sectors, where dark matter decays into dark energy and experiences an effective gravitational potential that differs from that experienced by normal matter, is effectively hidden away from direct observations of galaxies. Studies like these are vital if we are to pinpoint observations which can look for unique signatures of the physics that governs the hidden Universe. Of course, all of these predictions are unfortunately affected by uncertain galaxy formation physics. I will end by presenting results from a comparison study of numerous hydrodynamical codes, the nIFTY cluster comparison project, and how even how purely adiabatic simulations run with different codes give in quite different galaxy populations. The galaxies that form in these simulations, which all attempt to reproduce the observed galaxy population via not unreasonable subgrid physics, can and do vary in stellar mass, morphology and gas fraction.

The magnetic toroidal sector: a broad-band electron-positron pair spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagmann, Siegbert; Hillenbrand, Pierre-Michel; Litvinov, Yuri; Spillmann, Uwe

2016-05-01

At the future relativistic storage-ring HESR at FAIR the study of electron-positron pairs from non-nuclear, atomic processes will be one of the goals of the experimental program with kinematically complete experiments focusing on momentum spectroscopy of coincident emission of electrons and positrons from free-free pairs and corresponding recoil ions. The underlying production mechanisms belong to central topics of QED in strong fields. We present first results on the electron-optical properties of a magnetic toroidal sector configuration enabling coincident detection of free-free electron-positron pairs; this spectrometer is suitable for implementation into a storage ring with a supersonic jet target and covering a wide range of lepton emission into the forward hemisphere. The simulation calculations are performed using the OPERA code.

Measurement and simulation of the relatively competitive advantages and weaknesses between economies based on bipartite graph theory.

PubMed

Guan, Jun; Xu, Xiaoyu; Wu, Shan; Xing, Lizhi

2018-01-01

The input-output table is very comprehensive and detailed in describing the national economic systems with abundant economic relationships, which contain supply and demand information among various industrial sectors. The complex network, a theory, and method for measuring the structure of a complex system can depict the structural characteristics of the internal structure of the researched object by measuring the structural indicators of the social and economic systems, revealing the complex relationships between the inner hierarchies and the external economic functions. In this paper, functions of industrial sectors on the global value chain are to be distinguished with bipartite graph theory, and inter-sector competitive relationships are to be extracted through resource allocation process. Furthermore, quantitative analysis indices will be proposed under the perspective of a complex network, which will be used to bring about simulations on the variation tendencies of economies' status in different situations of commercial intercourses. Finally, a new econophysics analytical framework of international trade is to be established.

Measurement and simulation of the relatively competitive advantages and weaknesses between economies based on bipartite graph theory

PubMed Central

Guan, Jun; Xu, Xiaoyu; Wu, Shan

2018-01-01

The input-output table is very comprehensive and detailed in describing the national economic systems with abundant economic relationships, which contain supply and demand information among various industrial sectors. The complex network, a theory, and method for measuring the structure of a complex system can depict the structural characteristics of the internal structure of the researched object by measuring the structural indicators of the social and economic systems, revealing the complex relationships between the inner hierarchies and the external economic functions. In this paper, functions of industrial sectors on the global value chain are to be distinguished with bipartite graph theory, and inter-sector competitive relationships are to be extracted through resource allocation process. Furthermore, quantitative analysis indices will be proposed under the perspective of a complex network, which will be used to bring about simulations on the variation tendencies of economies’ status in different situations of commercial intercourses. Finally, a new econophysics analytical framework of international trade is to be established. PMID:29813083

Fuel switching in the electricity sector under the EU ETS: Review and prospective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Delarue, E.; Voorspools, K.; D'haeseleer, W.

2008-06-15

The European Union has implemented the European Union emission trading scheme (EU ETS) as an instrument to facilitate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission abatement stipulated in the Kyoto protocol. Empirical data show that in the early stages of the EU ETS, the value of a ton of CO{sub 2} has already led to emission abatement through switching from coal to gas in the European electric power sector. In the second part of this paper, an electricity generation simulation model is used to perform simulations on the switching behavior in both the first and the second trading periods of the EU ETS.more » In 2005, the reduction in GHG emissions in the electric power sector due to EU ETS is estimated close to 88 Mton. For the second trading period, a European Union allowance (EUA) price dependent GHG reduction curve has been determined. The obtained switching potential turns out to be significant, up to 300 Mton/year, at sufficiently high EUA prices.« less

Simulation studies on Tube End Expansion of AA2014 Alloy Tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venugopal, L.; Prasad, N. E. C.; Geeta Krishna, P.; Praveen, L.

2018-03-01

End forming is defined as forming the end of tubular forms either by inverting the tube or by expanding it. It finds application in many fields such as in automotive and aerospace sectors as power transmission elements, fuel lines, exhaust pipes etc. The main aim of the present work is to expand the AA2014 alloy tubes with different die sets without any fracture. Deform 2D software was used for performing simulations on expanding the tubes with different die set (punch) values having differed forming angles (α = 15°, 30° and 45°) and expansion ratios (rp/r0 = 1.39, 1.53 and 1.67). Experiments were also conducted and the results correlate with the simulation results. The results shows that for the punch having less cone angle (α) values the linear displacement is more rather than higher cone angles. But in the case of higher cone angles the radial displacement is more than the linear displacement.

US Clean Energy Sector and the Opportunity for Modeling and Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Inge, Carole Cameron

2011-01-01

The following paper sets forth the current understanding of the US clean energy demand and opportunity. As clean energy systems come online and technology is developed, modeling and simulation of these complex energy programs provides an untapped business opportunity. The US Department of Defense provides a great venue for developing new technology in the energy sector because it is demanding lower fuel costs, more energy efficiencies in its buildings and bases, and overall improvements in its carbon footprint. These issues coupled with the security issues faced by foreign dependence on oil will soon bring more clean energy innovations to the forefront (lighter batteries for soldiers, alternative fuel for jets, energy storage systems for ships, etc).

Subtle Increases in BMI within a Healthy Weight Range Still Reduce Womens Employment Chances in the Service Sector.

PubMed

Nickson, Dennis; Timming, Andrew R; Re, Daniel; Perrett, David I

2016-01-01

Using mixed design analysis of variance (ANOVA), this paper investigates the effects of a subtle simulated increase in adiposity on women's employment chances in the service sector. Employing a unique simulation of altering individuals' BMIs and the literature on "aesthetic labour", the study suggests that, especially for women, being heavier, but still within a healthy BMI, deleteriously impacts on hireability ratings. The paper explores the gendered dimension of this prejudice by asking whether female employees at the upper end of a healthy BMI range are likely to be viewed more negatively than their overtly overweight male counterparts. The paper concludes by considering the implications of these findings.

Regional demand forecasting and simulation model: user's manual. Task 4, final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parhizgari, A M

1978-09-25

The Department of Energy's Regional Demand Forecasting Model (RDFOR) is an econometric and simulation system designed to estimate annual fuel-sector-region specific consumption of energy for the US. Its purposes are to (1) provide the demand side of the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), (2) enhance our empirical insights into the structure of US energy demand, and (3) assist policymakers in their decisions on and formulations of various energy policies and/or scenarios. This report provides a self-contained user's manual for interpreting, utilizing, and implementing RDFOR simulation software packages. Chapters I and II present the theoretical structure and the simulation of RDFOR,more » respectively. Chapter III describes several potential scenarios which are (or have been) utilized in the RDFOR simulations. Chapter IV presents an overview of the complete software package utilized in simulation. Chapter V provides the detailed explanation and documentation of this package. The last chapter describes step-by-step implementation of the simulation package using the two scenarios detailed in Chapter III. The RDFOR model contains 14 fuels: gasoline, electricity, natural gas, distillate and residual fuels, liquid gases, jet fuel, coal, oil, petroleum products, asphalt, petroleum coke, metallurgical coal, and total fuels, spread over residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.« less

Simulation of parafoil reconnaissance imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kogler, Kent J.; Sutkus, Linas; Troast, Douglas; Kisatsky, Paul; Charles, Alain M.

1995-08-01

Reconnaissance from unmanned platforms is currently of interest to DoD and civil sectors concerned with drug trafficking and illegal immigration. Platforms employed vary from motorized aircraft to tethered balloons. One appraoch currently under evaluation deploys a TV camera suspended from a parafoil delivered to the area of interest by a cannon launched projectile. Imagery is then transmitted to a remote monitor for processing and interpretation. This paper presents results of imagery obtained from simulated parafoil flights in which software techniques were developed to process-in image degradation caused by atmospheric obscurants and perturbations in the normal parafoil flight trajectory induced by wind gusts. The approach to capturing continuous motion imagery from captive flight test recordings, the introduction of simulated effects, and the transfer of the processed imagery back to video tape is described.

Analysis of environmental impacts of renewable energy on the Moroccan electricity sector: A System Dynamics approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chentouf, M.; Allouch, M.

2018-05-01

Producing electricity at an affordable price while taking into account environmental concerns has become a major challenge in Morocco. Moreover, the technical and financial issues related to renewable electricity plants are still hindering their efficient integration in the country. In fact, the energy sector (both electricity and heat) accounted for more than half of all Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emissions in the kingdom due to the major reliance on fossil fuels for answering the growing local demand. The key strategies to alleviate this critical situation include the integration of more renewable energies in the total energy mix and the enhancement of energy efficiency measures in different sectors. This paper strives to (1) evaluate the potential of carbon dioxide mitigation in Moroccan electricity sector following the actual and projected strategies and (2) highlight the policy schemes to be taken in order to achieve the ambitious carbon dioxide mitigation targets in the mid-term. A system dynamics model was built in order to simulate different scenarios of carbon dioxide mitigation policies up to 2030. The results shows that the achievement of renewable energies projects by 2030 could save 228.143 MtCO2 between 2020 and 2030 and an additional 18.127 MtCO2 could be avoided in the same period by enhancing energy efficiency measures.

Anonymity-preserving Reputation Management System for health sector

PubMed Central

Hamid, Zara; Abdul, Wadood; Ghouzali, Sanaa; Khan, Abid; Malik, Saif Ur Rehman; Shaukat Khan, Mansoor; Nawaz, Sarfraz

2018-01-01

In health sector, trust is considered important because it indirectly influences the quality of health care through patient satisfaction, adherence and the continuity of its relationship with health care professionals and the promotion of accurate and timely diagnoses. One of the important requirements of TRSs in the health sector is rating secrecy, which mandates that the identification information about the service consumer should be kept secret to prevent any privacy violation. Anonymity and trust are two imperative objectives, and no significant explicit efforts have been made to achieve both of them at the same time. In this paper, we present a framework for solving the problem of reconciling trust with anonymity in the health sector. Our solution comprises Anonymous Reputation Management (ARM) protocol and Context-aware Trustworthiness Assessment (CTA) protocol. ARM protocol ensures that only those service consumers who received a service from a specific service provider provide a recommendation score anonymously with in the specified time limit. The CTA protocol computes the reputation of a user as a service provider and as a recommender. To determine the correctness of the proposed ARM protocol, formal modelling and verification are performed using High Level Petri Nets (HLPN) and Z3 Solver. Our simulation results verify the accuracy of the proposed context-aware trust assessment scheme. PMID:29649267

Experimental clean combustor program, alternate fuels addendum, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gleason, C. C.; Bahr, D. W.

1976-01-01

The characteristics of current and advanced low-emissions combustors when operated with special test fuels simulating broader range combustion properties of petroleum or coal derived fuels were studied. Five fuels were evaluated; conventional JP-5, conventional No. 2 Diesel, two different blends of Jet A and commercial aromatic mixtures - zylene bottoms and haphthalene charge stock, and a fuel derived from shale oil crude which was refined to Jet A specifications. Three CF6-50 engine size combustor types were evaluated; the standard production combustor, a radial/axial staged combustor, and a double annular combustor. Performance and pollutant emissons characteristics at idle and simulated takeoff conditions were evaluated in a full annular combustor rig. Altitude relight characteristics were evaluated in a 60 degree sector combustor rig. Carboning and flashback characteristics at simulated takeoff conditions were evaluated in a 12 degree sector combustor rig. For the five fuels tested, effects were moderate, but well defined.

A benchmark system to optimize our defense against an attack on the US food supply using the Risk Reduction Effectiveness and Capabilities Assessment Program.

PubMed

Hodoh, Ofia; Dallas, Cham E; Williams, Paul; Jaine, Andrew M; Harris, Curt

2015-01-01

A predictive system was developed and tested in a series of exercises with the objective of evaluating the preparedness and effectiveness of the multiagency response to food terrorism attacks. A computerized simulation model, Risk Reduction Effectiveness and Capabilities Assessment Program (RRECAP), was developed to identify the key factors that influence the outcomes of an attack and quantify the relative reduction of such outcomes caused by each factor. The model was evaluated in a set of Tabletop and Full-Scale Exercises that simulate biological and chemical attacks on the food system. More than 300 participants representing more than 60 federal, state, local, and private sector agencies and organizations. The exercises showed that agencies could use RRECAP to identify and prioritize their advance preparation to mitigate such attacks with minimal expense. RRECAP also demonstrated the relative utility and limitations of the ability of medical resources to treat patients if responders do not recognize and mitigate the attack rapidly, and the exercise results showed that proper advance preparation would reduce these deficiencies. Using computer simulation prediction of the medical outcomes of food supply attacks to identify optimal remediation activities and quantify the benefits of various measures provides a significant tool to agencies in both the public and private sector as they seek to prepare for such an attack.

Relative Contributions of Regional and Sector Emissions to the Radiative Forcing of Aerosol-Radiation and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Based on the AeroCOM Phase III/HTAP2 Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemura, T.; Chin, M.

2014-12-01

It is important to understand relative contributions of each regional and sector emission of aerosols and their precursor gases to the regional and global mean radiative forcing of aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This is because it is useful for international cooperation on controls of air pollution and anthropogenic climate change along most suitable reduction path of their emissions from each region and sector. The Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) under the United Nations researches the intercontinental transport of air pollutants including aerosols with strong support of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCOM). The ongoing AeroCOM Phase III/HTAP2 experiment assesses relative contributions of regional and sector sources of aerosols and their precursor gases to the air quality using global aerosol transport models with latest emission inventories. In this study, the extended analyses on the relative contributions of each regional and sector emission to the radiative forcing of aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions are done from the AeroCOM Phase III/HTAP2 experiment. Simulated results from MIROC-SPRINTARS and other some global aerosol models participating in the the AeroCOM Phase III/HTAP2 experiment are assessed. Acknowledgements: This study is based on the AeroCOM Phase III/HTAP2 experiment and partly supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-12-3) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Role of Sectoral Transformation in the Evolution of Water Management Norms in Agricultural Catchments: A Sociohydrologic Modeling Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roobavannan, M.; Kandasamy, J.; Pande, S.; Vigneswaran, S.; Sivapalan, M.

2017-10-01

This study is focused on the water-agriculture-environment nexus as it played out in the Murrumbidgee River Basin, eastern Australia, and how coevolution of society and water management actually transpired. Over 100 years of agricultural development the Murrumbidgee Basin experienced a "pendulum swing" in terms of water allocation, initially exclusively for agriculture production changing over to reallocation back to the environment. In this paper, we hypothesize that in the competition for water between economic livelihood and environmental wellbeing, economic diversification was the key to swinging community sentiment in favor of environmental protection, and triggering policy action that resulted in more water allocation to the environment. To test this hypothesis, we developed a sociohydrology model to link the dynamics of the whole economy (both agriculture and industry composed of manufacturing and services) to the community's sensitivity toward the environment. Changing community sensitivity influenced how water was allocated and governed and how the agricultural sector grew relative to the industrial sector (composed of manufacturing and services sectors). In this way, we show that economic diversification played a key role in influencing the community's values and preferences with respect to the environment and economic growth. Without diversification, model simulations show that the community would not have been sufficiently sensitive and willing enough to act to restore the environment, highlighting the key role of sectoral transformation in achieving the goal of sustainable agricultural development.

Examining air pollution in China using production- and consumption-based emissions accounting approaches.

PubMed

Huo, Hong; Zhang, Qiang; Guan, Dabo; Su, Xin; Zhao, Hongyan; He, Kebin

2014-12-16

Two important reasons for China's air pollution are the high emission factors (emission per unit of product) of pollution sources and the high emission intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) of the industrial structure. Therefore, a wide variety of policy measures, including both emission abatement technologies and economic adjustment, must be implemented. To support such measures, this study used the production- and consumption-based emissions accounting approaches to simulate the SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and VOC emissions flows among producers and consumers. This study analyzed the emissions and GDP performance of 36 production sectors. The results showed that the equipment, machinery, and devices manufacturing and construction sectors contributed more than 50% of air pollutant emissions, and most of their products were used for capital formation and export. The service sector had the lowest emission intensities, and its output was mainly consumed by households and the government. In China, the emission intensities of production activities triggered by capital formation and export were approximately twice that of the service sector triggered by final consumption expenditure. This study suggests that China should control air pollution using the following strategies: applying end-of-pipe abatement technologies and using cleaner fuels to further decrease the emission factors associated with rural cooking, electricity generation, and the transportation sector; continuing to limit highly emission-intensive but low value-added exports; developing a plan to reduce construction activities; and increasing the proportion of service GDP in the national economy.

ImSET: Impact of Sector Energy Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roop, Joseph M.; Scott, Michael J.; Schultz, Robert W.

2005-07-19

This version of the Impact of Sector Energy Technologies (ImSET) model represents the ''next generation'' of the previously developed Visual Basic model (ImBUILD 2.0) that was developed in 2003 to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of energy-efficient technology in buildings. More specifically, a special-purpose version of the 1997 benchmark national Input-Output (I-O) model was designed specifically to estimate the national employment and income effects of the deployment of Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) -developed energy-saving technologies. In comparison with the previous versions of the model, this version allows for more complete and automated analysis of the essential featuresmore » of energy efficiency investments in buildings, industry, transportation, and the electric power sectors. This version also incorporates improvements in the treatment of operations and maintenance costs, and improves the treatment of financing of investment options. ImSET is also easier to use than extant macroeconomic simulation models and incorporates information developed by each of the EERE offices as part of the requirements of the Government Performance and Results Act.« less

Evaluating land-use and private forest management responses to a potential forest carbon offset sales program in western Oregon (USA)

Treesearch

Gregory S. Latta; Darius M. Adams; Kathleen P. Bell; Jeff Kline

2016-01-01

We describe the use of linked land-use and forest sector models to simulate the effects of carbon offset sales on private forest owners' land-use and forest management decisions inwestern Oregon (USA). Our work focuses on forest management decisions rather than afforestation, allows full forest sector price adjustment to land-use changes, and incorporates time-...

Impacts of coal burning on ambient PM2.5 pollution in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Qiao; Cai, Siyi; Wang, Shuxiao; Zhao, Bin; Martin, Randall V.; Brauer, Michael; Cohen, Aaron; Jiang, Jingkun; Zhou, Wei; Hao, Jiming; Frostad, Joseph; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Burnett, Richard T.

2017-04-01

High concentration of fine particles (PM2.5), the primary concern about air quality in China, is believed to closely relate to China's large consumption of coal. In order to quantitatively identify the contributions of coal combustion in different sectors to ambient PM2. 5, we developed an emission inventory for the year 2013 using up-to-date information on energy consumption and emission controls, and we conducted standard and sensitivity simulations using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. According to the simulation, coal combustion contributes 22 µg m-3 (40 %) to the total PM2. 5 concentration at national level (averaged in 74 major cities) and up to 37 µg m-3 (50 %) in the Sichuan Basin. Among major coal-burning sectors, industrial coal burning is the dominant contributor, with a national average contribution of 10 µg m-3 (17 %), followed by coal combustion in power plants and the domestic sector. The national average contribution due to coal combustion is estimated to be 18 µg m-3 (46 %) in summer and 28 µg m-3 (35 %) in winter. While the contribution of domestic coal burning shows an obvious reduction from winter to summer, contributions of coal combustion in power plants and the industrial sector remain at relatively constant levels throughout the year.

Air Traffic Controller Performance and Acceptability of Multiple UAS in a Simulated NAS Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vu, Kim-Phuong L.; Strybel, Thomas; Chiappe, Dan; Morales, Greg; Battiste, Vernol; Shively, Robert Jay

2014-01-01

Previously, we showed that air traffic controllers (ATCos) rated UAS pilot verbal response latencies as acceptable when a 1.5 s delay was added to the UAS pilot responses, but a 5 s delay was rated as mostly unacceptable. In the present study we determined whether a 1.5 s added delay in the UAS pilots' verbal communications would affect ATCos interactions with UAS and other conventional aircraft when the number and speed of the UAS were manipulated. Eight radar-certified ATCos participated in this simulation. The ATCos managed a medium altitude sector containing arrival aircraft, en route aircraft, and one to four UAS. The UAS were conducting a surveillance mission and flew at either a "slow" or "fast" speed. We measured both UAS and conventional pilots' verbal communication latencies, and obtained ATCos' acceptability ratings for these latencies. Although the UAS pilot response latencies were longer than those of conventional pilots, the ATCos rated UAS pilot verbal communication latencies to be as acceptable as those of conventional pilots. Because the overall traffic load within the sector was held constant, ATCos only performed slightly worse when multiple UAS were in their sector compared to when only one UAS was in the sector. Implications of these findings for UAS integration in the NAS are discussed.

High-resolution integration of water, energy, and climate models to assess electricity grid vulnerabilities to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, M.; Macknick, J.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zagona, E. A.; Magee, T. M.; Bennett, K.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

The U.S. electricity sector depends on large amounts of water for hydropower generation and cooling thermoelectric power plants. Variability in water quantity and temperature due to climate change could reduce the performance and reliability of individual power plants and of the electric grid as a system. While studies have modeled water usage in power systems planning, few have linked grid operations with physical water constraints or with climate-induced changes in water resources to capture the role of the energy-water nexus in power systems flexibility and adequacy. In addition, many hydrologic and hydropower models have a limited representation of power sector water demands and grid interaction opportunities of demand response and ancillary services. A multi-model framework was developed to integrate and harmonize electricity, water, and climate models, allowing for high-resolution simulation of the spatial, temporal, and physical dynamics of these interacting systems. The San Juan River basin in the Southwestern U.S., which contains thermoelectric power plants, hydropower facilities, and multiple non-energy water demands, was chosen as a case study. Downscaled data from three global climate models and predicted regional water demand changes were implemented in the simulations. The Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model was used to project inflows, ambient air temperature, and humidity in the San Juan River Basin. Resulting river operations, water deliveries, water shortage sharing agreements, new water demands, and hydroelectricity generation at the basin-scale were estimated with RiverWare. The impacts of water availability and temperature on electric grid dispatch, curtailment, cooling water usage, and electricity generation cost were modeled in PLEXOS. Lack of water availability resulting from climate, new water demands, and shortage sharing agreements will require thermoelectric generators to drastically decrease power production, as much as 50% during intensifying drought scenarios, which can have broader electricity sector system implications. Results relevant to stakeholder and power provider interests highlight the vulnerabilities in grid operations driven by water shortage agreements and changes in the climate.

Quantifying the sectoral contribution of pollution transport from South Asia during summer and winter monsoon seasons in support of HTAP-2 experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surendran, Divya E.; Ghude, Sachin D.; Beig, G.; Jena, Chinmay; Chate, D. M.

2016-11-01

This study examines the contribution of 20% reduction in anthropogenic emissions from the energy, industry and transport sectors in South Asia to global distribution of ozone (O3) during summer and winter monsoon seasons. We used Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers (MOZART-4) and Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution version-2 (HTAP-v2) emission inventory to simulate global O3 for five different sensitivity simulations. Contribution from different emission sectors is identified on the basis of the differences between model calculations with unperturbed emissions (Base-case) and the emissions reduced by 20% by different sectors over South Asia. During the summer season, 20% reduction in emissions from transportation sector contributes maximum decrease in O3 of the order of 0.8 ppb in the center of Asian Summer Monsoons (ASM) anticyclone at 200 hPa. Response to Extra Regional Emission Reduction (RERER) is found to vary between 0.4 and 0.7 inside the ASM, indicating that 40-70% of O3 trapped inside the anticyclone is influenced by the emission from non-Asian emissions, and the remaining O3 is influenced by South-Asian emissions. During winter, 20% reduction in emissions from transport sector contributes decrease in O3 at surface up to 0.5 ppb over South Asia and outflow region (the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal). RERER values vary between 0 and 0.2 over South Asia indicating the predominant impact of local emissions reduction on surface O3 concentration than reduction in foreign emissions. We have also examined the health benefits of reduction in regional, global and sectoral emissions in terms of decrease in excess number of COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) cases due to O3 exposure. We find that more health benefits can be achieved if global emissions are decreased by 20%.

Sudden appearance of sub-keV structured ions in the inner magnetosphere within one hour: drift simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamauchi, Masatoshi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Dandouras, Iannis; Nilsson, Hans

2014-05-01

Energy-latitude dispersed structured sub-keV ions in the inner magnetosphere drifts very slowly in the noon-to-afternoon sectors because the eastward corotation and the westward magnetic drift balances to each other there. However, majority of Cluster ion observation by the Cluster Ion Spectrometry (CIS) COmposition DIstribution Function (CODIF) instrument during 2001-2006 showed significant development or intensification (by more than factor of 3) within 1-2 h in that sector during the Cluster perigee traversals that quickly scans latitudinal structure at a fixed local time (Yamauchi et al., 2013). The frequent observations of significant inbound-outbound differences in the wedge-like dispersed ions by Cluster indicates either new injections or high eastward drift velocity even in the afternoon sector. To examine the former possibility, i.e., whether such sudden appearances in the dayside can be explained by the drift motion of ions that are formed during substorm-related injections, we numerically simulated two such examples, one at noon (8 September 2002) and the other in the afternoon (9 July 2001), based on the same ion drift simulation model that has successfully reproduced the ion pattern of an inbound-outbound symmetric event at 5 MLT observed by the Cluster CIS/CODIF instrument. The model uses backward phase-space mapping to a boundary at the nightside 8 Earth radii and forward numerical simulation using re-constructed distribution function at that boundary. For both examples, the ion drift model with finite duration (limited to 1-2 hours) of proton source in the nightside can explain the observed large inbound-outbound differences in the sub-keV proton population without any new sources. Ion drift motion is thus able to cause rapid changes of complicated ion populations, at remote places from the source long time after the substorm activities, although this result does not eliminate the possibility of having independent ionospheric sources. References: Yamauchi, M. et al.: Cluster observation of few-hour-scale evolution of structured plasma in the inner magnetosphere, Ann. Geophys., 31, 1569-1578, doi:10.5194/angeo-31-1569-2013, 2013.

Predicting the impact of lava flows at Mount Etna by an innovative method based on Cellular Automata: Applications regarding land-use and civil defence planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crisci, G. M.; Avolio, M. V.; D'Ambrosio, D.; di Gregorio, S.; Lupiano, G. V.; Rongo, R.; Spataro, W.; Benhcke, B.; Neri, M.

2009-04-01

Forecasting the time, character and impact of future eruptions is difficult at volcanoes with complex eruptive behaviour, such as Mount Etna, where eruptions occur from the summit and on the flanks, affecting areas distant from each other. Modern efforts for hazard evaluation and contingency planning in volcanic areas draw heavily on hazard maps and numerical simulations. The computational model here applied belongs to the SCIARA family of lava flow simulation models. In the specific case this is the SCIARA-fv release, which is considered to give the most accurate and efficient performance, given the extent (567 km2) of the study area and the great number of simulations to be carried out. The model is based on the Cellular Automata computational paradigm and, specifically, on the Macroscopic Cellular Automata approach for the modelling of spatially extended dynamic systems2. This work addresses the problem of compiling high-detailed susceptibility maps with an elaborate approach in the numerical simulation of Etnean lava flows, based on the results of 39,300 simulations of flows erupted from a grid of 393 hypothetical vents in the eastern sector of Etna. This sector was chosen because it is densely populated and frequently affected by flank eruptions. Besides the definition of general susceptibility maps, the availability of a large number of lava flows of different eruption types, magnitudes and locations simulated for this study allows the instantaneous extraction of various scenarios on demand. For instance, in a Civil Defence oriented application, it is possible to identify all source areas of lava flows capable of affecting a given area of interest, such as a town or a major infrastructure. Indeed, this application is rapidly accomplished by querying the simulation database, by selecting the lava flows that affect the area of interest and by circumscribing their sources. Eventually, a specific category of simulation is dedicated to the assessment of protective measures, such as earth barriers, for mitigating lava invasion susceptibility in given areas. For the case if the town of Nicolosi, results show that the barrier would be necessary to effectively protect the town centre. The methodology here described can therefore represent a substantial advance in the field of lava flows impact prediction and can also have immediate, far-reaching implications both in land-use and civil defence planning.

SuperB Simulation Production System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomassetti, L.; Bianchi, F.; Ciaschini, V.; Corvo, M.; Del Prete, D.; Di Simone, A.; Donvito, G.; Fella, A.; Franchini, P.; Giacomini, F.; Gianoli, A.; Longo, S.; Luitz, S.; Luppi, E.; Manzali, M.; Pardi, S.; Paolini, A.; Perez, A.; Rama, M.; Russo, G.; Santeramo, B.; Stroili, R.

2012-12-01

The SuperB asymmetric e+e- collider and detector to be built at the newly founded Nicola Cabibbo Lab will provide a uniquely sensitive probe of New Physics in the flavor sector of the Standard Model. Studying minute effects in the heavy quark and heavy lepton sectors requires a data sample of 75 ab-1 and a peak luminosity of 1036 cm-2 s-1. The SuperB Computing group is working on developing a simulation production framework capable to satisfy the experiment needs. It provides access to distributed resources in order to support both the detector design definition and its performance evaluation studies. During last year the framework has evolved from the point of view of job workflow, Grid services interfaces and technologies adoption. A complete code refactoring and sub-component language porting now permits the framework to sustain distributed production involving resources from two continents and Grid Flavors. In this paper we will report a complete description of the production system status of the art, its evolution and its integration with Grid services; in particular, we will focus on the utilization of new Grid component features as in LB and WMS version 3. Results from the last official SuperB production cycle will be reported.

High-resolution numerical modelling of the barotropic tides in the Gulf of Gabes, eastern Mediterranean Sea (Tunisia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Othmani, Achref; Béjaoui, Béchir; Chevalier, Cristèle; Elhmaidi, Dalila; Devenon, Jean-Luc; Aleya, Lotfi

2017-05-01

A high-resolution 2D barotropic tidal model was developed for the Gulf of Gabes and used to characterise hydrodynamic processes and tidal dynamics. The model is based on the Regional Ocean Modelling System. It is forced at the open boundaries by the semidiurnal M2 and S2 astronomical components while meteorological forcing has been neglected. The model results show good agreement with observations confirming that it reproduces the gulf's main tidal characteristics reasonably well. In fact, the simulated semidiurnal tidal components M2 and S2 generate important sea level variations and coastal currents. Tidal propagation is directed to the gulf's western sector while tidal resonance occurs in its inner sector where the M2 and S2 amplitudes are about 50 and 36 cm, respectively. Phase maxima (170°-185°) are located inside Boughrara Lagoon for both the simulated M2 and S2 tides. The strongest currents are found in shallow coastal regions and at the lagoon's western inlet. During spring tides, currents are around 10-20 cm s-1 in the gulf center and up to 50 cm s-1 inside the lagoon.

Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandramowli, Shankar N.

Climate change poses a serious threat to human welfare. There is now unequivocal scientific evidence that human actions are the primary cause of climate change. The principal climate forcing factor is the increasing accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) due to combustion of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation. Generation of electricity account for nearly one-third of the greenhouse (GHG) emissions globally (on a CO2-equivalent basis). Any kind of economy-wide mitigation or adaptation effort to climate change must have a prominent focus on the electric power sector. I have developed a capacity expansion model for the power sector called LP-CEM (Linear Programming based Capacity Expansion Model). LP-CEM incorporates both the long-term climate change effects and the state/regional-level macroeconomic trends. This modeling framework is demonstrated for the electric power system in the Northeast region of United States. Some of the methodological advances introduced in this research are: the use of high-resolution temperature projections in a power sector capacity expansion model; the incorporation of changes in sectoral composition of electricity demand over time; the incorporation of the effects of climate change and variability on both the demand and supply-side of power sector using parameters estimated in the literature; and an inter-model coupling link with a macroeconomic model to account for price elasticity of demand and other effects on the broader macro-economy. LP-CEM-type models can be of use to state/regional level policymakers to plan for future mitigation and adaptation measures for the electric power sector. From the simulation runs, it is shown that scenarios with climate change effects and with high economic growth rates have resulted in higher capacity addition, optimal supply costs, wholesale/retail prices and total ratepayers' costs. LP-CEM is also adapted to model the implications of the proposed Clean Power Plan (Section 111 (d)) rules for the U.S. Northeast region. This dissertation applies an analytical model and an optimization model to investigate the implications of co-implementing an emission cap and an RPS policy for this region. A simplified analytical model of LP-CEM is specified and the first order optimality conditions are derived. The results from this analytical model are corroborated by running LP-CEM simulations under different carbon cap and RPS policy assumptions. A combination of these policies is shown to have a long-term beneficial effect for the final ratepayers in the region. This research conceptually explores the future implications of climate change and extreme weather events on the regional electricity market framework. The significant findings from this research and future policy considerations are discussed in the conclusion chapter.

Potential pitfalls of strain rate imaging: angle dependency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castro, P. L.; Greenberg, N. L.; Drinko, J.; Garcia, M. J.; Thomas, J. D.

2000-01-01

Strain Rate Imaging (SRI) is a new echocardiographic technique that allows for the real-time determination of myocardial SR, which may be used for the early and accurate detection of coronary artery disease. We sought to study whether SR is affected by scan line alignment in a computer simulation and an in vivo experiment. Through the computer simulation and the in vivo experiment we generated and validated safe scanning sectors within the ultrasound scan sector and showed that while SRI will be an extremely valuable tool in detecting coronary artery disease there are potential pitfalls for the unwary clinician. Only after accounting for these affects due to angle dependency, can clinicians utilize SRI's potential as a valuable tool in detecting coronary artery disease.

Subtle Increases in BMI within a Healthy Weight Range Still Reduce Womens Employment Chances in the Service Sector

PubMed Central

Timming, Andrew R.; Re, Daniel; Perrett, David I.

2016-01-01

Using mixed design analysis of variance (ANOVA), this paper investigates the effects of a subtle simulated increase in adiposity on women’s employment chances in the service sector. Employing a unique simulation of altering individuals’ BMIs and the literature on “aesthetic labour”, the study suggests that, especially for women, being heavier, but still within a healthy BMI, deleteriously impacts on hireability ratings. The paper explores the gendered dimension of this prejudice by asking whether female employees at the upper end of a healthy BMI range are likely to be viewed more negatively than their overtly overweight male counterparts. The paper concludes by considering the implications of these findings. PMID:27603519

Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part I: Projected emissions, simulation design, and model evaluation.

PubMed

Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

2018-07-01

Emissions from the transportation sector are rapidly changing worldwide; however, the interplay of such emission changes in the face of climate change are not as well understood. This two-part study examines the impact of projected emissions from the U.S. transportation sector (Part I) on ambient air quality in the face of climate change (Part II). In Part I of this study, we describe the methodology and results of a novel Technology Driver Model (see graphical abstract) that includes 1) transportation emission projections (including on-road vehicles, non-road engines, aircraft, rail, and ship) derived from a dynamic technology model that accounts for various technology and policy options under an IPCC emission scenario, and 2) the configuration/evaluation of a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. By 2046-2050, the annual domain-average transportation emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) are projected to decrease over the continental U.S. The decreases in gaseous emissions are mainly due to reduced emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines, which exhibit spatial and seasonal variations across the U.S. Although particulate matter (PM) emissions widely decrease, some areas in the U.S. experience relatively large increases due to increases in ship emissions. The on-road vehicle emissions dominate the emission changes for CO, NO x , VOC, and NH 3 , while emissions from both the on-road and non-road modes have strong contributions to PM and SO 2 emission changes. The evaluation of the baseline 2005 WRF simulation indicates that annual biases are close to or within the acceptable criteria for meteorological performance in the literature, and there is an overall good agreement in the 2005 CMAQ simulations of chemical variables against both surface and satellite observations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RQL Sector Rig Testing of SiC/SiC Combustor Liners

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verrilli, Michael J.; Martin, Lisa C.; Brewer, David N.

2002-01-01

Combustor liners, manufactured from silicon carbide fiber-reinforced silicon carbide (SiC/SiC) were tested for 260 hr using a simulated gas turbine engine cycle. This report documents the results of the last 56 hr of testing. Damage occurred in one of the six different components that make up the combustor liner set, the rich zone liner. Cracks in the rich zone liner initiated at the leading edge due to stresses resulting from the component attachment configuration. Thin film thermocouples and fiber optic pyrometers were used to measure the rich zone liner's temperature and these results are reported.

Strong control of Southern Ocean cloud reflectivity by ice-nucleating particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergara-Temprado, Jesús; Miltenberger, Annette K.; Furtado, Kalli; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Shipway, Ben J.; Hill, Adrian A.; Wilkinson, Jonathan M.; Field, Paul R.; Murray, Benjamin J.; Carslaw, Ken S.

2018-03-01

Large biases in climate model simulations of cloud radiative properties over the Southern Ocean cause large errors in modeled sea surface temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and climate sensitivity. Here, we combine cloud-resolving model simulations with estimates of the concentration of ice-nucleating particles in this region to show that our simulated Southern Ocean clouds reflect far more radiation than predicted by global models, in agreement with satellite observations. Specifically, we show that the clouds that are most sensitive to the concentration of ice-nucleating particles are low-level mixed-phase clouds in the cold sectors of extratropical cyclones, which have previously been identified as a main contributor to the Southern Ocean radiation bias. The very low ice-nucleating particle concentrations that prevail over the Southern Ocean strongly suppress cloud droplet freezing, reduce precipitation, and enhance cloud reflectivity. The results help explain why a strong radiation bias occurs mainly in this remote region away from major sources of ice-nucleating particles. The results present a substantial challenge to climate models to be able to simulate realistic ice-nucleating particle concentrations and their effects under specific meteorological conditions.

Strong control of Southern Ocean cloud reflectivity by ice-nucleating particles

PubMed Central

Miltenberger, Annette K.; Furtado, Kalli; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Shipway, Ben J.; Hill, Adrian A.; Wilkinson, Jonathan M.; Field, Paul R.

2018-01-01

Large biases in climate model simulations of cloud radiative properties over the Southern Ocean cause large errors in modeled sea surface temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and climate sensitivity. Here, we combine cloud-resolving model simulations with estimates of the concentration of ice-nucleating particles in this region to show that our simulated Southern Ocean clouds reflect far more radiation than predicted by global models, in agreement with satellite observations. Specifically, we show that the clouds that are most sensitive to the concentration of ice-nucleating particles are low-level mixed-phase clouds in the cold sectors of extratropical cyclones, which have previously been identified as a main contributor to the Southern Ocean radiation bias. The very low ice-nucleating particle concentrations that prevail over the Southern Ocean strongly suppress cloud droplet freezing, reduce precipitation, and enhance cloud reflectivity. The results help explain why a strong radiation bias occurs mainly in this remote region away from major sources of ice-nucleating particles. The results present a substantial challenge to climate models to be able to simulate realistic ice-nucleating particle concentrations and their effects under specific meteorological conditions. PMID:29490918

Electricity Consumption in the Industrial Sector of Jordan: Application of Multivariate Linear Regression and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samhouri, M.; Al-Ghandoor, A.; Fouad, R. H.

2009-08-01

In this study two techniques, for modeling electricity consumption of the Jordanian industrial sector, are presented: (i) multivariate linear regression and (ii) neuro-fuzzy models. Electricity consumption is modeled as function of different variables such as number of establishments, number of employees, electricity tariff, prevailing fuel prices, production outputs, capacity utilizations, and structural effects. It was found that industrial production and capacity utilization are the most important variables that have significant effect on future electrical power demand. The results showed that both the multivariate linear regression and neuro-fuzzy models are generally comparable and can be used adequately to simulate industrial electricity consumption. However, comparison that is based on the square root average squared error of data suggests that the neuro-fuzzy model performs slightly better for future prediction of electricity consumption than the multivariate linear regression model. Such results are in full agreement with similar work, using different methods, for other countries.

Investigating Perturbation Electric Fields and Their Effects on the Coupled Low-, Mid- and High-latitude Ionosphere

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-14

stream (SAPS) E field had been strong. During these E field events, the repeated development of equatorial ionization anomaly ( EIA ), storm-enhanced...density (SED) bulge and SED plume occurred in those longitude sectors that covered the local dusk-midnight hours. Thus, a well-formed EIA - SED...Observational results and CTIPe simulated wind vector maps suggest that 1) the enhanced growth of the EIA transported solar produced plasma to the

Integrating water use into Southern California's power dispatch: an evaluation of the potential for cost-effective water conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolorinos, J.; Ajami, N.; Yu, Y.; Rajagopal, R.

2016-12-01

Urban water supply and energy systems in the arid Southwestern United States are closely linked. Freshwater use by the electricity sector in particular represents a sizable portion of total water consumption in the region. Nonetheless, the dispatch of water and energy resources is managed separately, and no research to-date has examined the water conservation potential presented by the electricity sector. This study gauges the potential water savings that could be achieved including water use in the power dispatch process in Southern California by simulating a DC Optimal Power Flow for a simplified model of the region's power network. The simulation uses historical power consumption data, historical power production data and water use data from the US Geological Survey, the California Energy Commission and the US Energy Information Administration to estimate freshwater consumption by the region's thermoelectric power generation fleet. Preliminary results indicate that power system freshwater consumption could be reduced by as much as 20% at a minimal cost penalty, with potential for even greater savings. Model results show that Southern California's power system has the ability to competitively shift the use of some of the region's water resources from electricity to urban consumption, and suggests that water use should be incorporated into the policy-making process to enhance the efficient use of the state's interconnected water and energy resources.

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Eric Bonnema | NREL

Science.gov Websites

contributes to the research efforts for commercial buildings. This effort is dedicated to studying the , commercial sector whole-building energy simulation, scientific computing, and software configuration and

Variability of extreme rainfall over La Plata Basin and Amazon Basin in South America in model simulations of the 20th century and projections under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalcanti, I. F.

2011-12-01

The two largest river basins in South America are Amazon Basin (AMB) in the tropical region and La Plata Basin (LPB) in subtropical and extratropical regions. Extreme droughts have occurred during this decade in Amazonia region which have affected the transportation, fishing activities with impacts in the local population, and also affecting the forest. Droughts or floods over LPB have impacts on agriculture, hydroelectricity power and social life. Therefore, monthly wet and dry extremes in these two regions have a profound effect on the economy and society. Observed rainfall over Amazon Basin (AMB) and La Plata Basin (LPB) is analyzed in monthly timescale using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), from 1979 to 1999. This period is taken to compare GPCP data with HADCM3 simulations (Hadley Centre) of the 20th century and to analyze reanalyses data which have the contribution of satellite information after 1979. HADCM3 projections using SRES A2 scenario is analyzed in two periods: 2000 to 2020 and 2079 to 2099 to study the extremes frequency in a near future and in a longer timescale. Extreme, severe and moderate cases are identified in the northern and southern sectors of LPB and in the western and eastern sectors of AMB. The main objective is to analyze changes in the frequency of cases, considering the global warming and the associated mechanisms. In the observations for the 20th century, the number of extreme rainy cases is higher than the number of dry cases in both sectors of LPB and AMB. The model simulates this variability in the two sectors of LPB and in the west sector of AMB. In the near future 2000 to 2020 the frequency of wet and dry extremes does not change much in LPB and in the western sector of AMB, but the wet cases increase in the eastern AMB. However, in the period of 2079 to 2099 the projections indicate increase of wet cases in LPB and increase of dry cases in AMB. The influence of large scale features related to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, Walker and Hadley circulations, teleconnections, as well as the regional features related to humidity flux are discussed. The extreme droughts of 2005 and 2010 in Amazonia are show to be related to these features.

Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin

PubMed Central

Feldmann, Johannes; Levermann, Anders

2015-01-01

The future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest uncertainty in sea-level projections of this and upcoming centuries. Recently, satellite observations and high-resolution simulations have suggested the initiation of an ice-sheet instability in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica, caused by the last decades’ enhanced basal ice-shelf melting. Whether this localized destabilization will yield a full discharge of marine ice from West Antarctica, associated with a global sea-level rise of more than 3 m, or whether the ice loss is limited by ice dynamics and topographic features, is unclear. Here we show that in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, a local destabilization causes a complete disintegration of the marine ice in West Antarctica. In our simulations, at 5-km horizontal resolution, the region disequilibrates after 60 y of currently observed melt rates. Thereafter, the marine ice-sheet instability fully unfolds and is not halted by topographic features. In fact, the ice loss in Amundsen Sea sector shifts the catchment's ice divide toward the Filchner–Ronne and Ross ice shelves, which initiates grounding-line retreat there. Our simulations suggest that if a destabilization of Amundsen Sea sector has indeed been initiated, Antarctica will irrevocably contribute at least 3 m to global sea-level rise during the coming centuries to millennia. PMID:26578762

Near-field multiple traps of paraxial acoustic vortices with strengthened gradient force generated by sector transducer array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qingdong; Li, Yuzhi; Ma, Qingyu; Guo, Gepu; Tu, Juan; Zhang, Dong

2018-01-01

In order to improve the capability of particle trapping close to the source plane, theoretical and experimental studies on near-field multiple traps of paraxial acoustic vortices (AVs) with a strengthened acoustic gradient force (AGF) generated by a sector transducer array were conducted. By applying the integration of point source radiation, numerical simulations for the acoustic fields generated by the sector transducer array were conducted and compared with those produced by the circular transducer array. It was proved that strengthened AGFs of near-field multiple AVs with higher peak pressures and smaller vortex radii could be produced by the sector transducer array with a small topological charge. The axial distributions of the equivalent potential gradient indicated that the AGFs of paraxial AVs in the near field were much higher than those in the far field, and the distances at the near-field vortex antinodes were also proved to be the ideal trapping positions with relatively higher AGFs. With the established 8-channel AV generation system, theoretical studies were also verified by the experimental measurements of pressure and phase for AVs with various topological charges. The formation of near-field multiple paraxial AVs was verified by the cross-sectional circular pressure distributions with perfect phase spirals around central pressure nulls, and was also proved by the vortex nodes and antinodes along the center axis. The favorable results demonstrated the feasibility of generating near-field multiple traps of paraxial AVs with strengthened AGF using the sector transducer array, and suggested the potential applications of close-range particle trapping in biomedical engineering.

Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module is a simulation tool based upon economic and engineering relationships that models commercial sector energy demands at the nine Census Division level of detail for eleven distinct categories of commercial buildings. Commercial equipment selections are performed for the major fuels of electricity, natural gas,more » and distillate fuel, for the major services of space heating, space cooling, water heating, ventilation, cooking, refrigeration, and lighting. The algorithm also models demand for the minor fuels of residual oil, liquefied petroleum gas, steam coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene, the renewable fuel sources of wood and municipal solid waste, and the minor services of office equipment. Section 2 of this report discusses the purpose of the model, detailing its objectives, primary input and output quantities, and the relationship of the Commercial Module to the other modules of the NEMS system. Section 3 of the report describes the rationale behind the model design, providing insights into further assumptions utilized in the model development process to this point. Section 3 also reviews alternative commercial sector modeling methodologies drawn from existing literature, providing a comparison to the chosen approach. Section 4 details the model structure, using graphics and text to illustrate model flows and key computations.« less

Shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector: The role of the atmospheric response to local SST changes vs. large-scale changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Greatbatch, Richard; Bader, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Climate change simulations robustly show a warming hole in the sub-polar North Atlantic that results from slowing of the AMOC countering the global warming signal. Here we investigate how the distinct SST spatial structures, which include a sharpening of the Gulf Stream SST gradients, influence climate change in the NA sector in winter. For this we analyse the RCP8.5 scenario simulation of the MPI Earth System Model. Additional sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric model component, ECHAM5, are performed to deconstruct the effect of the local spatial structure of the SST change from those arising from large-scale warming of the ocean, remote SST pattern changes and changed radiative forcings. The MPI model simulation shows a signifcant decrease in precipitation to the south of the GS extension region in the future, despite a strong increase in underlying SST. While directly to the north there is a significant increase in precipitation. These distinct features in the precipitation response over the North Atlantic result from the local SST. Over the Gulf Stream, the differential structure of the precipitation changes reflects the changes of the local SST gradients there. Over the subpolar gyre the increase in precipitation is partly suppressed. In this region the Subpolar Gyre the weakened AMOC causes a SST warming, that is much weaker than the warming other regions of the ocean show at the same latitude. The large-scale response, which includes the overall increase in precipitation over the NA is due to the overall warming, remote SSTs and/or directly connected to the radiative forcing.

Lifecycle of South America Monsoon System Simulated by the Regional Eta Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalcanti, I. F.; Raia, A.; Chou, S. C.; Silveira, V. P.

2017-12-01

The SAMS comprises a set of features over South America that includes the rainy season over large areas of the continent, typical atmospheric circulation and humidity fluxes characteristics and occurrences of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. The onset and duration of these characteristics are important to several economic sectors, such as Agriculture and Hydropower. Droughts during the summer season, as the 2014 and 2015 cases, or onset delays can affect these sectors. Predictions of the SAMS onset and duration can contribute to management actions. The Eta Regional model represents well the precipitation difference between summer and winter and the related atmospheric circulation differences over South America. Therefore the objective of this study is to analyze the lifecycle of the SAMS simulated by the Eta model to evaluate first the behaviour compared to observations and to further use as a tool to prediction of onset and duration. There are several methods to analyze the lifecycle of the monsoon and here the criterion is based on vertical integrated zonal moisture flux in the monsoon core, which is located at southern Amazonia. The climate simulation was performed with the Eta model using the HadGEM2_ES model, from CMIP5, as lateral boundary condition. The period of analyses is 1980 to 2005. The model results are compared to ERA-Interim reanalysis and GPCP precipitation dataset. The results show the interannual lifecycles and the average for the whole period, as well as the annual cycle of zonal wind, precipitation, temperature and specific humidity. Spatial maps of humidity convergence, atmospheric circulation at low and high levels indicate the changes during the onset and demise.

A structural mechanics approach for the phonon dispersion analysis of graphene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, X. H.; Deng, Z. C.; Zhang, K.

2017-04-01

A molecular structural mechanics model for the numerical simulation of phonon dispersion relations of graphene is developed by relating the C-C bond molecular potential energy to the strain energy of the equivalent beam-truss space frame. With the stiffness matrix known and further based on the periodic structure characteristics, the Bloch theorem is introduced to develop the dispersion relation of graphene sheet. Being different from the existing structural mechanics model, interactions between the fourth-nearest neighbor atoms are further simulated with beam elements to compensate the reduced stretching stiffness, where as a result not only the dispersion relations in the low frequency field are accurately achieved, but results in the high frequency field are also reasonably obtained. This work is expected to provide new opportunities for the dynamic properties analysis of graphene and future application in the engineering sector.

Sensitivity of LES results from turbine rim seals to changes in grid resolution and sector size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Mahoney, T.; Hills, N.; Chew, J.

2012-07-01

Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) were carried out for a turbine rim seal and the sensitivity of the results to changes in grid resolution and the size of the computational domain are investigated. Ingestion of hot annulus gas into the rotor-stator cavity is compared between LES results and against experiments and Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) calculations. The LES calculations show greater ingestion than the URANS calculation and show better agreement with experiments. Increased grid resolution shows a small improvement in ingestion predictions whereas increasing the sector model size has little effect on the results. The contrast between the different CFD models is most stark in the inner cavity, where the URANS shows almost no ingestion. Particular attention is also paid to the presence of low frequency oscillations in the disc cavity. URANS calculations show such low frequency oscillations at different frequencies than the LES. The oscillations also take a very long time to develop in the LES. The results show that the difficult problem of estimating ingestion through rim seals could be overcome by using LES but that the computational requirements were still restrictive.

A model of economic growth with physical and human capital: The role of time delays.

PubMed

Gori, Luca; Guerrini, Luca; Sodini, Mauro

2016-09-01

This article aims at analysing a two-sector economic growth model with discrete delays. The focus is on the dynamic properties of the emerging system. In particular, this study concentrates on the stability properties of the stationary solution, characterised by analytical results and geometrical techniques (stability crossing curves), and the conditions under which oscillatory dynamics emerge (through Hopf bifurcations). In addition, this article proposes some numerical simulations to illustrate the behaviour of the system when the stationary equilibrium is unstable.

Technology Development Risk Assessment for Space Transportation Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Godsell, Aga M.; Go, Susie

2006-01-01

A new approach for assessing development risk associated with technology development projects is presented. The method represents technology evolution in terms of sector-specific discrete development stages. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate development probability distributions based on statistical models of the discrete transitions. Development risk is derived from the resulting probability distributions and specific program requirements. Two sample cases are discussed to illustrate the approach, a single rocket engine development and a three-technology space transportation portfolio.

Tourism Contribution to Poverty Alleviation in Kenya: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis.

PubMed

Njoya, Eric Tchouamou; Seetaram, Neelu

2018-04-01

The aim of this article is to investigate the claim that tourism development can be the engine for poverty reduction in Kenya using a dynamic, microsimulation computable general equilibrium model. The article improves on the common practice in the literature by using the more comprehensive Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index to measure poverty instead of headcount ratios only. Simulations results from previous studies confirm that expansion of the tourism industry will benefit different sectors unevenly and will only marginally improve poverty headcount. This is mainly due to the contraction of the agricultural sector caused the appreciation of the real exchange rates. This article demonstrates that the effect on poverty gap and poverty severity is, nevertheless, significant for both rural and urban areas with higher impact in the urban areas. Tourism expansion enables poorer households to move closer to the poverty line. It is concluded that the tourism industry is pro-poor.

Tourism Contribution to Poverty Alleviation in Kenya: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

PubMed Central

Njoya, Eric Tchouamou; Seetaram, Neelu

2017-01-01

The aim of this article is to investigate the claim that tourism development can be the engine for poverty reduction in Kenya using a dynamic, microsimulation computable general equilibrium model. The article improves on the common practice in the literature by using the more comprehensive Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index to measure poverty instead of headcount ratios only. Simulations results from previous studies confirm that expansion of the tourism industry will benefit different sectors unevenly and will only marginally improve poverty headcount. This is mainly due to the contraction of the agricultural sector caused the appreciation of the real exchange rates. This article demonstrates that the effect on poverty gap and poverty severity is, nevertheless, significant for both rural and urban areas with higher impact in the urban areas. Tourism expansion enables poorer households to move closer to the poverty line. It is concluded that the tourism industry is pro-poor. PMID:29595836

Finite Element Based Optimization of Material Parameters for Enhanced Ballistic Protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramezani, Arash; Huber, Daniel; Rothe, Hendrik

2013-06-01

The threat imposed by terrorist attacks is a major hazard for military installations, vehicles and other items. The large amounts of firearms and projectiles that are available, pose serious threats to military forces and even civilian facilities. An important task for international research and development is to avert danger to life and limb. This work will evaluate the effect of modern armor with numerical simulations. It will also provide a brief overview of ballistic tests in order to offer some basic knowledge of the subject, serving as a basis for the comparison of simulation results. The objective of this work is to develop and improve the modern armor used in the security sector. Numerical simulations should replace the expensive ballistic tests and find vulnerabilities of items and structures. By progressively changing the material parameters, the armor is to be optimized. Using a sensitivity analysis, information regarding decisive variables is yielded and vulnerabilities are easily found and eliminated afterwards. To facilitate the simulation, advanced numerical techniques have been employed in the analyses.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Frieler, K.; Warszawski, L.; Lange, S.; Schewe, J.; Reyer, C.; Ostberg, S.; Piontek, F.; Betts, R. A.; Burke, E.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Emanuel, K.; Elliott, J. W.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gosling, S.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, J.; Jones, C.; Krysanova, V.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mouratiadou, I.; Popp, A.; Tian, H.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Eddy, T.; Hattermann, F.; Huber, V.; Mengel, M.; Stevanovic, M.; Kirsten, T.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Denvil, S.; Halladay, K.; Suzuki, T.; Lotze, H. K.

2016-12-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

2017-04-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Methods and Measurements in Real-Time Air Traffic Control System Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-04-01

Percent of Variance Consumed by Factors 28 7 Correlations Between ABM II Factor Scores and SE14 1 30 Sector-Density Cell -Based Facter Scores 8 SEX I Cell ...runs for each of 31 subjects under each of 6 sector geometry-traffic density combinations ( cells ). Initial analyses, involving correlations between the...two runs in each cell , indicated very low correlations between the replicates. It was decided that before going further it would be best to conduct a

Lattice QCD studies on baryon interactions in the strangeness -2 sector with physical quark masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, Kenji; Aoki, Sinya; Doi, Takumi; Gongyo, Shinya; Hatsuda, Tetsuo; Ikeda, Yoichi; Inoue, Takashi; Iritani, Takumi; Ishii, Noriyoshi; Miyamoto, Takaya

2018-03-01

We investigate baryon-baryon (BB) interactions in the strangeness S = -2 sector via the coupled-channel HAL QCD method which enables us to extract the scattering observables from Nambu-Bethe-Salpeter (NBS) wave function on the lattice. The simulations are performed with (almost) physical quark masses (mπ = 146MeV) and a huge lattice volume of La = 8.1fm. We discuss the fate of H-dibaryon state through the ΛΛ and NΞ coupled-channel scatterings

Case Study: Influences of Uncertainties and Traffic Scenario Difficulties in a Human-in-the-Loop Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bienert, Nancy; Mercer, Joey; Homola, Jeffrey; Morey, Susan; Prevot, Thomas

2014-01-01

This paper presents a case study of how factors such as wind prediction errors and metering delays can influence controller performance and workload in Human-In-The-Loop simulations. Retired air traffic controllers worked two arrival sectors adjacent to the terminal area. The main tasks were to provide safe air traffic operations and deliver the aircraft to the metering fix within +/- 25 seconds of the scheduled arrival time with the help of provided decision support tools. Analyses explore the potential impact of metering delays and system uncertainties on controller workload and performance. The results suggest that trajectory prediction uncertainties impact safety performance, while metering fix accuracy and workload appear subject to the scenario difficulty.

Evaluation of the Course of the Flight Simulators from the Perspective of Students and University Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaysi, Feyzi; Bavli, Bünyamin; Gürol, Aysun

2016-01-01

The study evaluates the flight simulators course which was opened to fulfill the intermediate staff need of the sector. To collect data, Qualitative techniques were applied. Within this scope, the case study method was employed in the study. The study group consisted of students and instructors. In-depth and focus group interviews were conducted…

APEX: A Computerized Simulation Game as the Basis for an Undergraduate Interdisciplinary Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tannenbaum, Robert S.

APEX is a computerized gaming simulation; it is also the name of an interdisciplinary course in environmental problems in urban areas introduced at the School of Health Science, Hunter College of the City University of New York. In the course, students assume the roles of decision makers in both the private and public sectors. They receive data…

Simulating ozone concentrations using precursor emission inventories in Delhi - National Capital Region of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Sumit; Khare, Mukesh

2017-02-01

This study simulates ground level ozone concentrations in a heavily populated and polluted National Capital Region (NCR- Delhi) in India. Multi-sectoral emission inventories of ozone precursors are prepared at a high resolution of 4 × 4 km2 for the whole region covering the capital city of Delhi along with other surrounding towns and rural regions in NCR. Emission inventories show that transport sector accounts for 55% of the total NOx emissions, followed by power plants (23%) and diesel generator sets (7%). In NMVOC inventories, transport sector again accounts for 33%, followed by evaporative emissions released from solvent use and fuel handling activities (30%), and agricultural residue burning (28%). Refuse burning contributes to 73% of CO emissions mainly due to incomplete combustion, followed by agricultural residue burning (14%). These emissions are spatially and temporally distributed across the study domain and are fed into the WRF-CMAQ models to predict ozone concentrations for the year 2012. Model validations are carried out with the observed values at different monitoring stations in Delhi. The performance of the models over various metrics used for evaluation was found to be satisfactory. Summers and post-monsoon seasons were better simulated than monsoon and winter seasons. Simulations have shown higher concentrations of ozone formation during summers and lesser during winters and monsoon seasons, mainly due to varying solar radiation affecting photo-chemical activities. Ozone concentrations are observed lower at those locations where NOx emissions are higher, and concentrations increase close to the boundary of study domain when compared to the center of Delhi city. Downwind regions to Delhi are influenced by the ozone formed due to plume of precursor emissions released from Delhi. Considering significant background contributions, regional scale controls are required for reducing ozone in NCR.

Representing Precipitation Ice Species With Both Spherical and Nonspherical Particles for Radiative Transfer Modeling of Microphysics-Consistent Cloud Microwave Scattering Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sieron, Scott B.; Zhang, Fuqing; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Zhang, Lily N.; Lu, Yinghui

2018-04-01

Cloud microwave scattering properties for the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) have previously been created to be consistent with the particle size distributions specified by the WSM6 single-moment microphysics scheme. Here substitution of soft sphere scattering properties with nonspherical particle scattering properties is explored in studies of Hurricane Karl (2010). A nonsphere replaces a sphere of the same maximum dimension, and the number of particles of a given size is scaled by the ratio of the sphere to nonsphere mass to keep the total mass of a given particle size unchanged. The replacement of homogeneous soft sphere snow particles is necessary to resolve a highly evident issue in CRTM simulations: precipitation-affected brightness temperatures are generally warmer at 183 GHz than at 91.7 GHz, whereas the reverse is seen in observations. Using sector snowflakes resolve this issue better than using columns/plates, bullet rosettes, or dendrites. With sector snowflakes, both of these high frequencies have low simulated brightness temperatures compared to observations, providing a clear and consistent suggestion that snow is being overproduced in the examined simulation using WSM6 microphysics. Graupel causes cold biases at lower frequencies which can be reduced by either reducing graupel water contents or replacing the microphysics-consistent spherical graupel particles with sector snowflakes. However, soft spheres are likely the better physical representation of graupel particles. The hypotheses that snow and graupel are overproduced in simulations using WSM6 microphysics shall be examined more systematically in future studies through additional cases and ensemble data assimilation of all-sky microwave radiance observations.

Is the Magnetic Field in the Heliosheath Sector Region and in the Outer Heliosheath Laminar?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Opher, M.; Drake, J. F.; Swisdak, M. M.; Toth, G.

2010-12-01

All the current global models of the heliosphere are based on the assumption that the magnetic field in the outer heliosheath close to the heliopause is laminar. We argue that in the outer heliosheath the heliospheric magnetic field is not laminar but instead consists of nested magnetic islands. Recently, we proposed (Drake et al. 2009) that the annihilation of the ``sectored'' magnetic field within the heliosheath as it is compressed on its approach to the heliopause produces the anomalous cosmic rays (ACRs) and also energetic electrons. As a product of the annihilation of the sectored magnetic field, densly-packed magnetic islands are produced. These magnetic islands will be convected with the ambient flows as the sector boundary is carried to higher latitudes filling the outer heliosheath. We further argue that the magnetic islands will develop upstream (but still within the heliosheath) where collisionless reconnection is unfavorable -- large perturbations of the sector structure near the heliopause will cause compressions of the current sheet upstream, triggering reconnection. As a result, the magnetic field in the heliosheath sector region will be disordered well upstream of the heliopause. We present a 3D MHD simulation with unprecedent numerical resolution that captures the sector boundary. We show that due to the high pressure of the interstellar magnetic field the disordered sectored region fills a large portion of the northern part of the heliosphere with a smaller extension in the southern hemisphere. We test these ideas with observations of energetic electrons, which because of their high velocity are most sensitive to the structure of the magnetic field. We suggest that within our scenario we can explain two significant anomalies in the observations of energetic electrons in the outer heliosphere: the sudden decrease in the intensity of low energy electrons (0.02-1.5MeV) from the LECP instrument on Voyager 2 in 2008 (Decker 2010); and the dramatic differences in intensity trends between Galactic Cosmic Ray Electrons (3.8-59MeV) at Voyager 1 and 2 (McDonald 2010). We argue that these observations are a consequence of Voyager 2 leaving the sector region of disordered field in mid 2008 and crossing into a region of unipolar laminar field.

Pan-European household and industrial water demand: regional relevant estimations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; de Roo, Ad

2016-04-01

Sustainable water management is of high importance to provide adequate quality and quantity of water to European households, industries and agriculture. Especially since demographic, economic and climate changes are expected to increase competition for water between these sectors in the future. A shortage of water implies a reduction in welfare of households or damage to economic sectors. This socio-economic component should be incorporated into the decision-making process when developing water allocation schemes, requiring detailed water use information and cost/benefit functions. We now present the results of our study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water demand and cost-benefit estimations for the household and industry sector. We gathered consistent data on water consumption, water prices and other relevant variables at the highest spatial detail available from national statistical offices and other organizational bodies. This database provides the most detailed up to date picture of present water use and water prices across Europe. The use of homogeneous data allowed us to compare regions and analyze spatial patterns. We applied econometric methods to determine the main determinants of water demand and make a monetary valuation of water for both the domestic and industry sector. This monetary valuation is important to allow water allocation based on economic damage estimates. We also attempted to estimate how population growth, as well as socio-economic and climatic changes impact future water demand up to 2050 using a homogeneous method for all countries. European projections for the identified major drivers of water demand were used to simulate future conditions. Subsequently, water demand functions were applied to estimate future water use and potential economic damage caused by water shortages. We present our results while also providing some estimation of the uncertainty of our predictions.

Maturation of biomass-to-biofuels conversion technology pathways for rapid expansion of biofuels production: A system dynamics perspective

DOE PAGES

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Bush, Brian W.; Hsu, Dave D.; ...

2014-08-12

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system-dynamics simulation model intended to explore the potential for rapid expansion of the biofuels industry. The model is not predictive — it uses scenario assumptions based on various types of data to simulate industry development, emphasizing how incentives and technological learning-by-doing might accelerate industry growth. The BSM simulates major sectors of the biofuels industry, including feedstock production and logistics, conversion, distribution, and end uses, as well as interactions among sectors. The model represents conversion of biomass to biofuels as a set of technology pathways, each of which has allowable feedstocks, capital and operatingmore » costs, allowable products, and other defined characteristics. This study and the BSM address bioenergy modeling analytic needs that were identified in recent literature reviews. Simulations indicate that investments are most effective at expanding biofuels production through learning-by-doing when they are coordinated with respect to timing, pathway, and target sector within the biofuels industry. Effectiveness metrics include timing and magnitude of increased production, incentive cost and cost effectiveness, and avoidance of windfall profits. Investment costs and optimal investment targets have inherent risks and uncertainties, such as the relative value of investment in more-mature versus less mature pathways. These can be explored through scenarios, but cannot be precisely predicted. Dynamic competition, including competition for cellulosic feedstocks and ethanol market shares, intensifies during times of rapid growth. Ethanol production increases rapidly, even up to Renewable Fuel Standards-targeted volumes of biofuel, in simulations that allow higher blending proportions of ethanol in gasoline-fueled vehicles. Published 2014. This document is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Biofuels, Bioproducts, Biorefining published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.« less

Charlotte - EDC Evaluation and Demonstration (CEED) Human-in-the-Loop Results Briefing to ATD-2 FAA Partners

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chevalley, Eric

2016-01-01

The Charlotte EDC Evaluation and Demonstration (CEED) was the first Human-In-The-Loop experiment under the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration-2 (ATD-2) project. The purpose of the study was fourfold: 1) to establish a simulation environment (Charlotte) for airspace operations for ATD-2 technology, 2) to simulate current-day departures and arrival operations, 3) to assess the impact of current Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) on Charlotte (CLT) departure flows and en route operations in Washington (ZDC) and Atlanta Centers (ZTL), and 4) to assess the impact of departure takeoff time compliance on airspace operations. The experimental design compared 3 TMIs and 2 compliance levels. Fourteen FAA retired controllers participated in the simulation. In addition, two Traffic Management Coordinators from ZTL and ZDC managed traffic flows. Surface and airborne delays, control efficiency, throughput, realism, workload, and acceptability were assessed and will be compared across the experimental conditions. Participants rated the simulation as very realistic. Results indicate that different TMIs have different impacts on surface and airspace delay. Departure compliance indicates partial benefits to sector complexity and controller workload. This simulation will provide an initial assessment of the tactical scheduling problems that the ATD-2 technology will address in the near term.

Strong control of Southern Ocean cloud reflectivity by ice-nucleating particles.

PubMed

Vergara-Temprado, Jesús; Miltenberger, Annette K; Furtado, Kalli; Grosvenor, Daniel P; Shipway, Ben J; Hill, Adrian A; Wilkinson, Jonathan M; Field, Paul R; Murray, Benjamin J; Carslaw, Ken S

2018-03-13

Large biases in climate model simulations of cloud radiative properties over the Southern Ocean cause large errors in modeled sea surface temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and climate sensitivity. Here, we combine cloud-resolving model simulations with estimates of the concentration of ice-nucleating particles in this region to show that our simulated Southern Ocean clouds reflect far more radiation than predicted by global models, in agreement with satellite observations. Specifically, we show that the clouds that are most sensitive to the concentration of ice-nucleating particles are low-level mixed-phase clouds in the cold sectors of extratropical cyclones, which have previously been identified as a main contributor to the Southern Ocean radiation bias. The very low ice-nucleating particle concentrations that prevail over the Southern Ocean strongly suppress cloud droplet freezing, reduce precipitation, and enhance cloud reflectivity. The results help explain why a strong radiation bias occurs mainly in this remote region away from major sources of ice-nucleating particles. The results present a substantial challenge to climate models to be able to simulate realistic ice-nucleating particle concentrations and their effects under specific meteorological conditions. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Central East Pacific Flight Routing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grabbe, Shon; Sridhar, Banavar; Kopardekar, Parimal; Cheng, Nadia

2006-01-01

With the introduction of the Federal Aviation Administration s Advanced Technology and Oceanic Procedures system at the Oakland Oceanic Center, a level of automation now exists in the oceanic environment to potentially begin accommodating increased user preferred routing requests. This paper presents the results of an initial feasibility assessment which examines the potential benefits of transitioning from the fixed Central East Pacific routes to user preferred routes. As a surrogate for the actual user-provided routing requests, a minimum-travel-time, wind-optimal dynamic programming algorithm was developed and utilized in this paper. After first describing the characteristics (e.g., origin airport, destination airport, vertical distribution and temporal distribution) of the westbound flights utilizing the Central East Pacific routes on Dec. 14-16 and 19-20, the results of both a flight-plan-based simulation and a wind-optimal-based simulation are presented. Whereas the lateral and longitudinal distribution of the aircraft trajectories in these two simulations varied dramatically, the number of simulated first-loss-of-separation events remained relatively constant. One area of concern that was uncovered in this initial analysis was a potential workload issue associated with the redistribution of traffic in the oceanic sectors due to thc prevailing wind patterns.

Network simulation modeling of equine infectious anemia in the non-racehorse population in Japan.

PubMed

Hayama, Yoko; Kobayashi, Sota; Nishida, Takeshi; Muroga, Norihiko; Tsutsui, Toshiyuki

2012-01-01

An equine infectious anemia (EIA) transmission model was developed by constructing a network structure of horse movement patterns in a non-racehorse population. This model was then used to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of several EIA surveillance strategies. Because EIA had not been detected in Japan since 1993, it was appropriate to review the current surveillance strategy, which aims to eradicate EIA by intensive testing, and to consider alternative strategies suitable for the current EIA status in Japan. The non-racehorse population was divided into four sectors based on horse usage: the equestrian sector, private owner sector, exhibition sector, and fattening sector. To evaluate the risk of disease spread within and between sectors accompanied by horse movements, a stochastic individual-based network model was developed based on a previous survey of horse movement patterns. Surveillance parameters such as targeting sectors and frequency of testing were added into the model to compare surveillance strategies. The disease spread heterogeneously among sectors. Infection occurred mainly in the equestrian sector; the infection was less disseminated in other sectors. Therefore, we considered that the equestrian sector posed a higher risk of disease dissemination within and between sectors through horse movements. However, surveillance strategies targeting only the equestrian sector were not effective enough for early detection of the disease. Alternatively, targeting horses that moved permanently and those in the private owner sector in addition to the equestrian sector is recommended to achieve effectiveness equivalent to that of the current surveillance. In terms of surveillance efficacy, by increasing the testing interval (once yearly to once every 3 years), this testing scheme could reduce the number of tested horses to 44% of the current surveillance, while maintaining almost equivalent effectiveness. Intensive strategies targeting high-risk populations are considered to enhance effectiveness and efficiency of surveillance. The approach in this study may be helpful in the decision-making process that is involved in setting up strategies for risk-based surveillance. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards Large Eddy Simulation of gas turbine compressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMullan, W. A.; Page, G. J.

2012-07-01

With increasing computing power, Large Eddy Simulation could be a useful simulation tool for gas turbine axial compressor design. This paper outlines a series of simulations performed on compressor geometries, ranging from a Controlled Diffusion Cascade stator blade to the periodic sector of a stage in a 3.5 stage axial compressor. The simulation results show that LES may offer advantages over traditional RANS methods when off-design conditions are considered - flow regimes where RANS models often fail to converge. The time-dependent nature of LES permits the resolution of transient flow structures, and can elucidate new mechanisms of vorticity generation on blade surfaces. It is shown that accurate LES is heavily reliant on both the near-wall mesh fidelity and the ability of the imposed inflow condition to recreate the conditions found in the reference experiment. For components embedded in a compressor this requires the generation of turbulence fluctuations at the inlet plane. A recycling method is developed that improves the quality of the flow in a single stage calculation of an axial compressor, and indicates that future developments in both the recycling technique and computing power will bring simulations of axial compressors within reach of industry in the coming years.

Comparison of the Aeroacoustics of Two Small-Scale Supersonic Inlets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ng, Wing

1996-01-01

An aerodynamic and acoustic investigation was performed on two small-scale supersonic inlets to determine which inlet would be more suitable for a High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft during approach and takeoff flight conditions. The comparison was made between an axisymmetric supersonic P inlet and a bifurcated two-dimensional supersonic inlet. The 1/14 scale model supersonic inlets were used in conjunction with a 4.1 in (10.4 cm) turbofan engine simulator. A bellmouth was utilized on each inlet to eliminate lip separation commonly associated with airplane engine inlets that are tested under static conditions. Steady state measurements of the aerodynamic flowfield and acoustic farfield were made in order to evaluate the aeroacoustic performance of the inlets. The aerodynamic results show the total pressure recovery of the two inlets to be nearly identical, 99% at the approach condition and 98% at the takeoff condition. At the approach fan speed (60% design speed), there was no appreciable difference in the acoustic performance of either inlet over the entire 0 deg to 110 deg farfield measurement sector. The inlet flow field results at the takeoff fan speed (88% design speed), show the average inlet throat Mach number for the P inlet (Mach 0.52) to be approximately 2 times that of the 2D inlet (Mach 0.26). The difference in the throat Mach number is a result of the smaller throughflow area of the P inlet. This reduced area resulted in a 'soft choking' of the P inlet which lowered the tone and overall sound pressure levels of the simulator in the forward sector by an average of 9 dB and 3 dB, respectively, when compared to the 2D inlet.

Rubella vaccination in India: identifying broad consequences of vaccine introduction and key knowledge gaps.

PubMed

Winter, A K; Pramanik, S; Lessler, J; Ferrari, M; Grenfell, B T; Metcalf, C J E

2018-01-01

Rubella virus infection typically presents as a mild illness in children; however, infection during pregnancy may cause the birth of an infant with congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). As of February 2017, India began introducing rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) into the public-sector childhood vaccination programme. Low-level RCV coverage among children over several years can result in an increase in CRS incidence by increasing the average age of infection without sufficiently reducing rubella incidence. We evaluated the impact of RCV introduction on CRS incidence across India's heterogeneous demographic and epidemiological contexts. We used a deterministic age-structured model that reflects Indian states' rural and urban area-specific demography and vaccination coverage levels to simulate rubella dynamics and estimate CRS incidence with and without RCV introduction to the public sector. Our analysis suggests that current low-level private-sector vaccination has already slightly increased the burden of CRS in India. We additionally found that the effect of public-sector RCV introduction depends on the basic reproductive number, R 0, of rubella. If R 0 is five, a value empirically estimated from an array of settings, CRS incidence post-RCV introduction will likely decrease. However, if R 0 is seven or nine, some states may experience short-term or annual increases in CRS, even if a long-term total reduction in cases (30 years) is expected. Investment in population-based serological surveys and India's fever/rash surveillance system will be key to monitoring the success of the vaccination programme.

Material Identification Algorithm

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

realistic scenes composed of uneven ground, trees, and reflecting objects. The simulation includes effects of ionospheric dispersion on the radar pulses...effects of ionospheric dispersion on the SAR returns. Summary - Part 1I The objective of this effort was to perform numerical simulations for large...study," Radiology, vol. 216, pp. 279-283, 2000. [9] M. Xu, G. Ku, and L. V. Wang, "Microwave-induced thermoacous- tic tomography using multi-sector

Calibrating and Updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2014 with BPMPD)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

2014-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) is an economic model of global production, consumption, and trade of forest products. An earlier version of the model is described in Buongiorno et al. (2003). The GFPM 2014 has data and parameters to simulate changes of the forest sector from 2010 to 2030. Buongiorno and Zhu (2014) describe how to use the model for simulation....

Specialization and production cost efficiency: evidence from ambulatory surgery centers.

PubMed

Carey, Kathleen; Mitchell, Jean M

2018-03-01

In the U.S. health care sector, the economic logic of specialization as an organizing principle has come under active debate in recent years. An understudied case is that of ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs), which recently have become the dominant provider of specific surgical procedures. While the majority of ASCs focus on a single specialty, a growing number are diversifying to offer a wide range of surgical services. We take a multiple output cost function approach to an empirical investigation that compares production economies in single specialty ASCs with those in multispecialty ASCs. We applied generalized estimating equation techniques to a sample of Pennsylvania ASCs for the period 2004-2014, including 73 ASCs that specialized in gastrointestinal procedures and 60 ASCs that performed gastrointestinal as well as other specialty procedures. Results indicated that both types of ASC had small room for expansion. In simulation analysis, production of GI services in specialized ASCs had a cost advantage over joint production of GI with other specialty procedures. Our results provide support for the focused factory model of production in the ASC sector.

Drill cuttings mount formation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teh, Su Yean; Koh, Hock Lye

2014-07-01

Oil, Gas and Energy sector has been identified as an essential driving force in the Malaysian Economic Transformation Programs (ETP). Recently confirmed discovery of many offshore oil and gas deposits in Malaysian waters has ignited new confidence in this sector. However, this has also spurred intense interest on safeguarding the health and environment of coastal waters in Malaysia from adverse impact resulting from offshore oil and gas production operation. Offshore discharge of spent drilling mud and rock cuttings is the least expensive and simplest option to dispose of large volumes of drilling wastes. But this onsite offshore disposal may have adverse environmental impacts on the water column and the seabed. It may also pose occupational health hazards to the workers living in the offshore platforms. It is therefore important to model the transport and deposition of drilling mud and rock cuttings in the sea to enable proper assessment of their adverse impacts on the environment and the workers. Further, accumulation of drill particles on the seabed may impede proper operation of pipelines on the seabed. In this paper, we present an in-house application model TUNA-PT developed to cater to local oil and gas industry needs to simulate the dispersion and mount formation of drill cuttings by offshore oil and gas exploration and production platforms. Using available data on Malaysian coastal waters, simulation analyses project a pile formation on the seabed with a maximum height of about 1 m and pile radius of around 30 to 50 m. Simulated pile heights are not sensitive to the heights of release of the cuttings as the sensitivity has been mitigated by the depth of water.

Policy impact of the Indonesian Central Bank certificate related on loan interest rate to the demand growth of property

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wirjodirdjo, B.; Asjari, H. Y.

2018-04-01

The Indonesian economic indicators shown a positive progress in the last three years, Foreign exchange reserves position of the end of March 2017 stood at US 121.8 billion higher than the position of the end of 2015 amounted to US 105.9 billion of the end of 2015. This reserve would ensure the resilience and maintaining sustainable Indonesian economic growth in the future. Although Indonesia’s foreign exchange is better, the structure of expenditure in the country is still less than ideal due the proportion of spending of consumer goods is far greater than the capital goods and tend to be unproductive spending. This needs to be regulated so that in the long term does not cause balance of payments deficit. Therefore, Indonesian Central Bank took a policy to raise interest rates for retail banks from 6% to 7.25% per annum gradually up to present. Policies relating to the interest rates on loans are intended to reduce the proportion of debt financing of consumer goods, however, these policies have implications to various economic sectors and one of those is property sector. A lot of research has been conducted related the impact of loan interest to the property sector but most of it is still in partial related to the ability the people to buy. However, this research has tried to see the implication of the macro Economic Policy of Indonesian Central Bank to the property sector as a systemic problem. This paper is going to present the study on the effects of these policies on the property sector, especially residence house. To obtain a comprehensive analysis and capture the relationship between interest rate policies and their impacts to the property sector, in this study the model developed and simulated using system dynamic methodology as an approach. Various scenarios are applied to the model to get an accurate information about how and when the effectiveness of the policy related to the property sector can be enforced. The result of this study can be delivered to the policy maker as feed-back to improving the policies related the interest rate.

SSERVI Analog Regolith Simulant Testbed Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minafra, J.; Schmidt, G. K.

2016-12-01

SSERVI's goals include supporting planetary researchers within NASA, other government agencies; private sector and hardware developers; competitors in focused prize design competitions; and academic sector researchers. The SSERVI Analog Regolith Simulant Testbed provides opportunities for research scientists and engineers to study the effects of regolith analog testbed research in the planetary exploration field. This capability is essential to help to understand the basic effects of continued long-term exposure to a simulated analog test environment. The current facility houses approximately eight tons of JSC-1A lunar regolith simulant in a test bin consisting of a 4 meter by 4 meter area. SSERVI provides a bridge between several groups, joining together researchers from: 1) scientific and exploration communities, 2) multiple disciplines across a wide range of planetary sciences, and 3) domestic and international communities and partnerships. This testbed provides a means of consolidating the tasks of acquisition, storage and safety mitigation in handling large quantities of regolith simulant Facility hardware and environment testing scenarios include, but are not limited to the following; Lunar surface mobility, Dust exposure and mitigation, Regolith handling and excavation, Solar-like illumination, Lunar surface compaction profile, Lofted dust, Mechanical properties of lunar regolith, and Surface features (i.e. grades and rocks) Numerous benefits vary from easy access to a controlled analog regolith simulant testbed, and planetary exploration activities at NASA Research Park, to academia and expanded commercial opportunities in California's Silicon Valley, as well as public outreach and education opportunities.

Identification of biased sectors in emission data using a combination of chemical transport model and receptor model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uranishi, Katsushige; Ikemori, Fumikazu; Nakatsubo, Ryohei; Shimadera, Hikari; Kondo, Akira; Kikutani, Yuki; Asano, Katsuyoshi; Sugata, Seiji

2017-10-01

This study presented a comparison approach with multiple source apportionment methods to identify which sectors of emission data have large biases. The source apportionment methods for the comparison approach included both receptor and chemical transport models, which are widely used to quantify the impacts of emission sources on fine particulate matter of less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5). We used daily chemical component concentration data in the year 2013, including data for water-soluble ions, elements, and carbonaceous species of PM2.5 at 11 sites in the Kinki-Tokai district in Japan in order to apply the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model for the source apportionment. Seven PMF factors of PM2.5 were identified with the temporal and spatial variation patterns and also retained features of the sites. These factors comprised two types of secondary sulfate, road transportation, heavy oil combustion by ships, biomass burning, secondary nitrate, and soil and industrial dust, accounting for 46%, 17%, 7%, 14%, 13%, and 3% of the PM2.5, respectively. The multiple-site data enabled a comprehensive identification of the PM2.5 sources. For the same period, source contributions were estimated by air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) with the brute-force method (BFM) for four source categories. Both models provided consistent results for the following three of the four source categories: secondary sulfates, road transportation, and heavy oil combustion sources. For these three target categories, the models' agreement was supported by the small differences and high correlations between the CMAQ/BFM- and PMF-estimated source contributions to the concentrations of PM2.5, SO42-, and EC. In contrast, contributions of the biomass burning sources apportioned by CMAQ/BFM were much lower than and little correlated with those captured by the PMF model, indicating large uncertainties in the biomass burning emissions used in the CMAQ simulations. Thus, this comparison approach using the two antithetical models enables us to identify which sectors of emission data have large biases for improvement of future air quality simulations.

Applications of remote sensing to hydrologic planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loats, H., Jr.; Fowler, T.; Castruccio, P.

1978-01-01

The transfer of LANDSAT remote sensing technology from the research sector to user operational applications requires demonstration of the utility and accuracy of LANDSAT data in solving real problems. This report describes such a demonstration project in the area of water resources, specifically the estimation of non-point source pollutant loads. Non-point source pollutants were estimated from land cover data from LANDSAT images. Classification accuracies for three small watersheds were above 95%. Land cover was converted to pollutant loads for a fourth watershed through the use of coefficients relating significant pollutants to land use and storm runoff volume. These data were input into a simulator model which simulated runoff from average rainfall. The result was the estimation of monthly expected pollutant loads for the 17 subbasins comprising the Magothy watershed.

Benchmark results for few-body hypernuclei

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruffino, Fabrizio Ferrari; Lonardoni, Diego; Barnea, Nir

2017-03-16

Here, the Non-Symmetrized Hyperspherical Harmonics method (NSHH) is introduced in the hypernuclear sector and benchmarked with three different ab-initio methods, namely the Auxiliary Field Diffusion Monte Carlo method, the Faddeev–Yakubovsky approach and the Gaussian Expansion Method. Binding energies and hyperon separation energies of three- to five-body hypernuclei are calculated by employing the two-body ΛN component of the phenomenological Bodmer–Usmani potential, and a hyperon-nucleon interaction simulating the scattering phase shifts given by NSC97f. The range of applicability of the NSHH method is briefly discussed.

Approaches to Process Performance Modeling: A Summary from the SEI Series of Workshops on CMMI High Maturity Measurement and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

Soporte de Modelos Sistémicos: Aplicación al Sector de Desarrollo de Software de Argentina,” Tesis de PhD, Universidad Tecnológica Nacional-Facultad...with New Results 31  2.3  Other Simulation Approaches 37  Conceptual Planning , Execution, and Operation of Combat Fire Support Effectiveness: A...Figure 29:  Functional Structure of Multiple Regression Model 80  Figure 30:  TSP Quality Plan One 85  Figure 31:  TSP Quality Plan Two 85  Figure

Modelling the water-agricultural sector in Rosetta, Egypt: exploring the interaction between water and food

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sušnik, Janez; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia; Savic, Dragan; Kapelan, Zoran

2014-05-01

An integrated System Dynamics Model for the Rosetta region, Egypt, assessing local water balance and agricultural yield to 2050, is presented. Fifty-seven simulations are analysed to better understand potential impacts on water and food security resulting from climate and social change and local/regional policy decisions related to the agricultural sector. Water limitation is a national issue: Egypt relies on the Nile for >95% of supply, and the flow of which is regulated by the Aswan High Dam. Egypt's share water of Aswan water is limited to 55 x 19 m3 yr-1. Any reduction in supply to the reservoir or increase in demand (e.g. from an expanding agricultural sector), has the potential to lead to a serious food and water supply situation. Results show current water resource over-exploitation. The remaining suite of 56 simulations, divided into seven scenarios, also mostly show resource overexploitation. Only under significant increases to Nile flow volumes was the trend reversed. Despite this, by threading together multiple local policies to reduce demand and improve/maintain supply, water resource exploitation can be mitigated while allowing for agricultural development. By changing cropping patterns, it is possible to improve yield and revenue, while using up to 21% less water in 2050 when compared with today. The results are useful in highlighting pathways to improving future water resource availability. Many policies should be considered in parallel, introducing redundancy into the policy framework. We do not suggest actual policy measures; this was beyond the scope of the work. This work highlights the utility of systems modelling of complex systems such as the water-food nexus, with the potential to extend the methodology to other studies and scales. In particular, the benefit of being able to easily modify and extend existing models in light of results from initial modelling efforts is cited. Analysis of initial results led to the hypothesis that by producing excess crop as a result of cropping pattern changes, international markets could be exploited, leading to further local improvements to the water balance, food yield and revenue. An extension 'module' was added onto the initial model which aimed to simulate this exploitation of international markets. Despite the promising results, any improvements would probably manifest after a number of years, have to be managed carefully, and would increase reliance on other countries, something that would need to be considered at the national level. It would also be prudent to implement such a policy in parallel with others aimed at mitigating potential future drought scenarios. This work was part of EC FP7 'WASSERMed' (Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean) project analysing current and future climate-induced changes to hydrological budgets and extremes throughout the Mediterranean basin under the frame of threats to national and human security.

Flow-induced vibration analysis of a helical coil steam generator experiment using large eddy simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan, Haomin; Solberg, Jerome; Merzari, Elia

This paper describes a numerical study of flow-induced vibration in a helical coil steam generator experiment conducted at Argonne National Laboratory in the 1980s. In the experiment, a half-scale sector model of a steam generator helical coil tube bank was subjected to still and flowing air and water, and the vibrational characteristics were recorded. The research detailed in this document utilizes the multi-physics simulation toolkit SHARP developed at Argonne National Laboratory, in cooperation with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, to simulate the experiment. SHARP uses the spectral element code Nek5000 for fluid dynamics analysis and the finite element code DIABLO formore » structural analysis. The flow around the coil tubes is modeled in Nek5000 by using a large eddy simulation turbulence model. Transient pressure data on the tube surfaces is sampled and transferred to DIABLO for the structural simulation. The structural response is simulated in DIABLO via an implicit time-marching algorithm and a combination of continuum elements and structural shells. Tube vibration data (acceleration and frequency) are sampled and compared with the experimental data. Currently, only one-way coupling is used, which means that pressure loads from the fluid simulation are transferred to the structural simulation but the resulting structural displacements are not fed back to the fluid simulation« less

Flow-induced vibration analysis of a helical coil steam generator experiment using large eddy simulation

DOE PAGES

Yuan, Haomin; Solberg, Jerome; Merzari, Elia; ...

2017-08-01

This study describes a numerical study of flow-induced vibration in a helical coil steam generator experiment conducted at Argonne National Laboratory in the 1980 s. In the experiment, a half-scale sector model of a steam generator helical coil tube bank was subjected to still and flowing air and water, and the vibrational characteristics were recorded. The research detailed in this document utilizes the multi-physics simulation toolkit SHARP developed at Argonne National Laboratory, in cooperation with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, to simulate the experiment. SHARP uses the spectral element code Nek5000 for fluid dynamics analysis and the finite element code DIABLOmore » for structural analysis. The flow around the coil tubes is modeled in Nek5000 by using a large eddy simulation turbulence model. Transient pressure data on the tube surfaces is sampled and transferred to DIABLO for the structural simulation. The structural response is simulated in DIABLO via an implicit time-marching algorithm and a combination of continuum elements and structural shells. Tube vibration data (acceleration and frequency) are sampled and compared with the experimental data. Currently, only one-way coupling is used, which means that pressure loads from the fluid simulation are transferred to the structural simulation but the resulting structural displacements are not fed back to the fluid simulation.« less

Flow-induced vibration analysis of a helical coil steam generator experiment using large eddy simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan, Haomin; Solberg, Jerome; Merzari, Elia

This study describes a numerical study of flow-induced vibration in a helical coil steam generator experiment conducted at Argonne National Laboratory in the 1980 s. In the experiment, a half-scale sector model of a steam generator helical coil tube bank was subjected to still and flowing air and water, and the vibrational characteristics were recorded. The research detailed in this document utilizes the multi-physics simulation toolkit SHARP developed at Argonne National Laboratory, in cooperation with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, to simulate the experiment. SHARP uses the spectral element code Nek5000 for fluid dynamics analysis and the finite element code DIABLOmore » for structural analysis. The flow around the coil tubes is modeled in Nek5000 by using a large eddy simulation turbulence model. Transient pressure data on the tube surfaces is sampled and transferred to DIABLO for the structural simulation. The structural response is simulated in DIABLO via an implicit time-marching algorithm and a combination of continuum elements and structural shells. Tube vibration data (acceleration and frequency) are sampled and compared with the experimental data. Currently, only one-way coupling is used, which means that pressure loads from the fluid simulation are transferred to the structural simulation but the resulting structural displacements are not fed back to the fluid simulation.« less

Financial development and sectoral CO2 emissions in Malaysia.

PubMed

Maji, Ibrahim Kabiru; Habibullah, Muzafar Shah; Saari, Mohd Yusof

2017-03-01

The paper examines the impacts of financial development on sectoral carbon emissions (CO 2 ) for environmental quality in Malaysia. Since the financial sector is considered as one of the sectors that will contribute to Malaysian economy to become a developed country by 2020, we utilize a cointegration method to investigate how financial development affects sectoral CO 2 emissions. The long-run results reveal that financial development increases CO 2 emissions from the transportation and oil and gas sector and reduces CO 2 emissions from manufacturing and construction sectors. However, the elasticity of financial development is not significant in explaining CO 2 emissions from the agricultural sector. The results for short-run elasticities were also consistent with the long-run results. We conclude that generally, financial development increases CO 2 emissions and reduces environmental quality in Malaysia.

Design of a National Skills Market Model for Air Force Enlisted Personnel

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-09-01

specific occupations, rather than merely by industrial sector, labor market behavior could be more clearly related to specific Air Force specialties. The ...distinguishable but related purposes. First, it is desired as an adjunct to the Integrated Simulation Evaluation Model (ISEM) currently being...corn- puter simulation model of the Air Force Manpower and Personnel System (AFM&PS) that integrates the behavioral relationships deter- mining the

Pandemic recovery analysis using the dynamic inoperability input-output model.

PubMed

Santos, Joost R; Orsi, Mark J; Bond, Erik J

2009-12-01

Economists have long conceptualized and modeled the inherent interdependent relationships among different sectors of the economy. This concept paved the way for input-output modeling, a methodology that accounts for sector interdependencies governing the magnitude and extent of ripple effects due to changes in the economic structure of a region or nation. Recent extensions to input-output modeling have enhanced the model's capabilities to account for the impact of an economic perturbation; two such examples are the inoperability input-output model((1,2)) and the dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM).((3)) These models introduced sector inoperability, or the inability to satisfy as-planned production levels, into input-output modeling. While these models provide insights for understanding the impacts of inoperability, there are several aspects of the current formulation that do not account for complexities associated with certain disasters, such as a pandemic. This article proposes further enhancements to the DIIM to account for economic productivity losses resulting primarily from workforce disruptions. A pandemic is a unique disaster because the majority of its direct impacts are workforce related. The article develops a modeling framework to account for workforce inoperability and recovery factors. The proposed workforce-explicit enhancements to the DIIM are demonstrated in a case study to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

A comparative assessment of economic-incentive and command-and-control instruments for air pollution and CO2 control in China's iron and steel sector.

PubMed

Liu, Zhaoyang; Mao, Xianqiang; Tu, Jianjun; Jaccard, Mark

2014-11-01

China's iron and steel sector is faced with increasing pressure to control both local air pollutants and CO2 simultaneously. Additional policy instruments are needed to co-control these emissions in this sector. This study quantitatively evaluates and compares two categories of emission reduction instruments, namely the economic-incentive (EI) instrument of a carbon tax, and the command-and-control (CAC) instrument of mandatory application of end-of-pipe emission control measures for CO2, SO2 and NOx. The comparative evaluation tool is an integrated assessment model, which combines a top-down computable general equilibrium sub-model and a bottom-up technology-based sub-model through a soft-linkage. The simulation results indicate that the carbon tax can co-control multiple pollutants, but the emission reduction rates are limited under the tax rates examined in this study. In comparison, the CAC instruments are found to have excellent effects on controlling different pollutants separately, but not jointly. Such results indicate that no single EI or CAC instrument is overwhelmingly superior. The environmental and economic effectiveness of an instrument highly depends on its specific attributes, and cannot be predicted by the general policy category. These findings highlight the necessity of clearer identification of policy target priorities, and detail-oriented and integrated policy-making among different governmental departments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nursing simulation: a community experience.

PubMed

Gunowa, Neesha Oozageer; Elliott, Karen; McBride, Michelle

2018-04-02

The education sector faces major challenges in providing learning experiences so that newly qualified nurses feel adequately prepared to work in a community setting. With this in mind, higher education institutions need to develop more innovative ways to deliver the community-nurse experience to student nurses. This paper presents and explores how simulation provides an opportunity for educators to support and evaluate student performance in an environment that models a complete patient encounter in the community. Following the simulation, evaluative data were collated and the answers analysed to identify key recommendations.

Beam dynamics simulation of HEBT for the SSC-linac injector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiao-Ni; Yuan, You-Jin; Xiao, Chen; He, Yuan; Wang, Zhi-Jun; Sheng, Li-Na

2012-11-01

The SSC-linac (a new injector for the Separated Sector Cyclotron) is being designed in the HIRFL (Heavy Ion Research Facility in Lanzhou) system to accelerate 238U34+ from 3.72 keV/u to 1.008 MeV/u. As a part of the SSC-linac injector, the HEBT (high energy beam transport) has been designed by using the TRACE-3D code and simulated by the 3D PIC (particle-in-cell) Track code. The total length of the HEBT is about 12 meters and a beam line of about 6 meters are shared with the exiting beam line of the HIRFL system. The simulation results show that the particles can be delivered efficiently in the HEBT and the particles at the exit of the HEBT well match the acceptance of the SSC for further acceleration. The dispersion is eliminated absolutely in the HEBT. The space-charge effect calculated by the Track code is inconspicuous. According to the simulation, more than 60 percent of the particles from the ion source can be transported into the acceptance of the SSC.

Gemstones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, D.W.

2010-01-01

Information on the gemstones industry in 2009 is presented. Specifically, details on U.S. production of natural gemstones and laboratory-created, simulant, and treated gemstones; consumption and uses of gemstones; gemstone prices; imports and exports of gemstones; and the outlook for the sector are provided.

Three essays on energy efficiency and environmental policies in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gamtessa, Samuel Faye

This thesis is organized into five Chapters. In Chapter 1, we provide an introduction. In Chapter 2, we present a study on residential energy-efficiency retrofits in Canada. We describe the EnerGuide for Houses data and model household decisions to invest in energy-efficiency retrofits. Our results show that government financial incentives have important positive effects. The decision to invest in energy-efficiency retrofits is positively related to potential energy cost savings and negatively related to the costs of the retrofits. We find that household characteristics such as the age composition of household members are important factors. All else remaining constant, low income households are more likely to undertake energy-efficiency retrofits. In the third Chapter, we present our study on price-induced energy efficiency improvements in Canadian manufacturing. Our study employs a new approach to the estimation of price-induced energy efficiency improvements and the results have important empirical and policy implications. In the fourth chapter, we present our study on the implications of the “shale gas revolution” on Alberta greenhouse gas emission abatement strategy. Given that the strategy is centered on deployment of CCS technologies, we analyze the effects of the declines in natural gas price on CCS deployment in the electricity sector. We use the CIMS simulation model to simulate various policy scenarios under high and low natural gas price assumptions. Comparison of the results shows that CCS market penetration in the electricity sector is very minimal in the low natural gas price scenario even when a 50% cost subsidy is applied. Accordingly, there is little gain from subsidizing CCS given the “shale gas revolution.” We provide a few concluding remarks in Chapter 5.

Three Essays on Energy Efficiency and Environmental Policies in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gamtessa, Samuel

2011-09-01

This thesis is organized into five Chapters. In Chapter 1, we provide an introduction. In Chapter 2, we present a study on residential energy-efficiency retrofits in Canada. We describe the EnerGuide for Houses data and model household decisions to invest in energy-efficiency retrofits. Our results show that government financial incentives have important positive effects. The decision to invest in energy-efficiency retrofits is positively related to potential energy cost savings and negatively related to the costs of the retrofits. We find that household characteristics such as the age composition of household members are important factors. All else remaining constant, low income households are more likely to undertake energy-efficiency retrofits. In the third Chapter, we present our study on price-induced energy efficiency improvements in Canadian manufacturing. Our study employs a new approach to the estimation of price-induced energy efficiency improvements and the results have important empirical and policy implications. In the fourth chapter, we present our study on the implications of the "shale gas revolution" on Alberta greenhouse gas emission abatement strategy. Given that the strategy is centered on deployment of CCS technologies, we analyze the effects of the declines in natural gas price on CCS deployment in the electricity sector. We use the CIMS simulation model to simulate various policy scenarios under high and low natural gas price assumptions. Comparison of the results shows that CCS market penetration in the electricity sector is very minimal in the low natural gas price scenario even when a 50% cost subsidy is applied. Accordingly, there is little gain from subsidizing CCS given the "shale gas revolution." We provide a few concluding remarks in Chapter 5.

The impact of residential combustion emissions on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butt, E. W.; Rap, A.; Schmidt, A.; Scott, C. E.; Pringle, K. J.; Reddington, C. L.; Richards, N. A. D.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Yang, H.; Vakkari, V.; Stone, E. A.; Rupakheti, M.; Praveen, P. S.; van Zyl, P. G.; Beukes, J. P.; Josipovic, M.; Mitchell, E. J. S.; Sallu, S. M.; Forster, P. M.; Spracklen, D. V.

2016-01-01

Combustion of fuels in the residential sector for cooking and heating results in the emission of aerosol and aerosol precursors impacting air quality, human health, and climate. Residential emissions are dominated by the combustion of solid fuels. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to simulate the impact of residential fuel combustion on atmospheric aerosol for the year 2000. The model underestimates black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) mass concentrations observed over Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa, with better prediction when carbonaceous emissions from the residential sector are doubled. Observed seasonal variability of BC and OC concentrations are better simulated when residential emissions include a seasonal cycle. The largest contributions of residential emissions to annual surface mean particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are simulated for East Asia, South Asia, and Eastern Europe. We use a concentration response function to estimate the human health impact due to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 from residential emissions. We estimate global annual excess adult (> 30 years of age) premature mortality (due to both cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer) to be 308 000 (113 300-497 000, 5th to 95th percentile uncertainty range) for monthly varying residential emissions and 517 000 (192 000-827 000) when residential carbonaceous emissions are doubled. Mortality due to residential emissions is greatest in Asia, with China and India accounting for 50 % of simulated global excess mortality. Using an offline radiative transfer model we estimate that residential emissions exert a global annual mean direct radiative effect between -66 and +21 mW m-2, with sensitivity to the residential emission flux and the assumed ratio of BC, OC, and SO2 emissions. Residential emissions exert a global annual mean first aerosol indirect effect of between -52 and -16 mW m-2, which is sensitive to the assumed size distribution of carbonaceous emissions. Overall, our results demonstrate that reducing residential combustion emissions would have substantial benefits for human health through reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrations.

Design of a sector bowtie nano-rectenna for optical power and infrared detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kai; Hu, Haifeng; Lu, Shan; Guo, Lingju; He, Tao

2015-10-01

We designed a sector bowtie nanoantenna integrated with a rectifier (Au-TiO x -Ti diode) for collecting infrared energy. The optical performance of the metallic bowtie nanoantenna was numerically investigated at infrared frequencies (5-30 μm) using three-dimensional frequency-domain electromagnetic field calculation software based on the finite element method. The simulation results indicate that the resonance wavelength and local field enhancement are greatly affected by the shape and size of the bowtie nanoantenna, as well as the relative permittivity and conductivity of the dielectric layer. The output current of the rectified nano-rectenna is substantially at nanoampere magnitude with an electric field intensity of 1 V/m. Moreover, the power conversion efficiency for devices with three different substrates illustrates that a substrate with a larger refractive index yields a higher efficiency and longer infrared response wavelength. Consequently, the optimized structure can provide theoretical support for the design of novel optical rectennas and fabrication of optoelectronic devices.

Reinsurance of health insurance for the informal sector.

PubMed Central

Dror, D. M.

2001-01-01

Deficient financing of health services in low-income countries and the absence of universal insurance coverage leaves most of the informal sector in medical indigence, because people cannot assume the financial consequences of illness. The role of communities in solving this problem has been recognized, and many initiatives are under way. However, community financing is rarely structured as health insurance. Communities that pool risks (or offer insurance) have been described as micro-insurance units. The sources of their financial instability and the options for stabilization are explained. Field data from Uganda and the Philippines, as well as simulated situations, are used to examine the arguments. The article focuses on risk transfer from micro-insurance units to reinsurance. The main insight of the study is that when the financial results of micro-insurance units can be estimated, they can enter reinsurance treaties and be stabilized from the first year. The second insight is that the reinsurance pool may require several years of operation before reaching cost neutrality. PMID:11477971

Numerical study of sediment dynamics during hurricane Gustav

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zang, Zhengchen; Xue, Z. George; Bao, Shaowu; Chen, Qin; Walker, Nan D.; Haag, Alaric S.; Ge, Qian; Yao, Zhigang

2018-06-01

In this study, the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-and-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was employed to explore sediment dynamics in the northern Gulf of Mexico during hurricane Gustav in 2008. The performance of the model was evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively against in-situ and remote sensing measurements, respectively. After Gustav's landfall in coastal Louisiana, the maximum significant wave heights reached more than 8 m offshore and they decreased quickly as it moved toward the inner shelf, where the vertical stratification was largely destroyed. Alongshore currents were dominant westward on the eastern sector of the hurricane track, and offshoreward currents prevailed on the western sector. High suspended sediment concentrations (>1000 mg/l) were confined to the inner shelf at surface layers and the simulated high concentrations at the bottom layer extended to the 200 m isobaths. The stratification was restored one week after landfall, although not fully. The asymmetric hurricane winds induced stronger hydrodynamics in the eastern sector, which led to severe erosion. The calculated suspended sediment flux (SSF) was convergent to the hurricane center and the maximum SSF was simulated near the south and southeast of the Mississippi river delta. The averaged post-hurricane deposition over the Louisiana shelf was 4.0 cm, which was 3.2-26 times higher than the annual accumulation rate under normal weather conditions.

Assessment of marine weather forecasts over the Indian sector of Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gera, Anitha; Mahapatra, D. K.; Sharma, Kuldeep; Prakash, Satya; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Anilkumar, N.

2017-09-01

The Southern Ocean (SO) is one of the important regions where significant processes and feedbacks of the Earth's climate take place. Expeditions to the SO provide useful data for improving global weather/climate simulations and understanding many processes. Some of the uncertainties in these weather/climate models arise during the first few days of simulation/forecast and do not grow much further. NCMRWF issued real-time five day weather forecasts of mean sea level pressure, surface winds, winds at 500 hPa & 850 hPa and rainfall, daily to NCAOR to provide guidance for their expedition to Indian sector of SO during the austral summer of 2014-2015. Evaluation of the skill of these forecasts indicates possible error growth in the atmospheric model at shorter time scales. The error growth is assessed using the model analysis/reanalysis, satellite data and observations made during the expedition. The observed variability of sub-seasonal rainfall associated with mid-latitude systems is seen to exhibit eastward propagations and are well reproduced in the model forecasts. All cyclonic disturbances including the sub-polar lows and tropical cyclones that occurred during this period were well captured in the model forecasts. Overall, this model performs reasonably well over the Indian sector of the SO in medium range time scale.

Demand-driven energy requirement of world economy 2007: A multi-region input-output network simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhan-Ming; Chen, G. Q.

2013-07-01

This study presents a network simulation of the global embodied energy flows in 2007 based on a multi-region input-output model. The world economy is portrayed as a 6384-node network and the energy interactions between any two nodes are calculated and analyzed. According to the results, about 70% of the world's direct energy input is invested in resource, heavy manufacture, and transportation sectors which provide only 30% of the embodied energy to satisfy final demand. By contrast, non-transportation services sectors contribute to 24% of the world's demand-driven energy requirement with only 6% of the direct energy input. Commodity trade is shown to be an important alternative to fuel trade in redistributing energy, as international commodity flows embody 1.74E + 20 J of energy in magnitude up to 89% of the traded fuels. China is the largest embodied energy exporter with a net export of 3.26E + 19 J, in contrast to the United States as the largest importer with a net import of 2.50E + 19 J. The recent economic fluctuations following the financial crisis accelerate the relative expansions of energy requirement by developing countries, as a consequence China will take over the place of the United States as the world's top demand-driven energy consumer in 2022 and India will become the third largest in 2015.

Instability of the m=1 self-shielded mode in finite-length nonneutral plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, R. L.; Mason, G. W.; Powell, M.

2006-10-01

The m=1 self-shielded mode in a Malmberg-Penning trap is stable for a hollowed density profile in the infinite-length theory, but has been observed to be unstable in experiments. Earlier work by us and others showed theory and simulations to be a persistent factor of about 2 or more lower than experiment for the growth rate when applied to a single experimental point from measurements of Kabantsev and Driscoll (UCSD). Recently Shi, Chang, and Mitchell (University of Delaware) have measured the growth rates of the mode for a series of hollowed plasmas. We have done drift-kinetic particle-in- cell simulations of several of these experimental equilibria and have found the simulated growth rates also to be lower than experiment. We describe numerical experiments to vary the shape of the plasma ends, to vary the velocity distribution as it might result from the hollowing procedure, and to introduce resistive energy losses from the sectored confining ring to explain the discrepancy.

"Party Line" Information Use Studies and Implications for ATC Datalink Communications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansman, R. John; Pritchett, Amy; Midkiff, Alan

1995-01-01

The perceived importance and utilization of 'party line' information by air carrier flight crews was investigated through pilot surveys and a flight simulation study. The importance, availability, and accuracy of party line information elements were explored through surveys of pilots of several operational types. The survey identified numerous traffic and weather party line information elements which were considered important. These elements were scripted into a full-mission flight simulation which examined the utilization of party line information by studying subject responses to specific information element stimuli. The awareness of the different Party Line elements varied, and awareness was also affected by pilot workload. In addition, pilots were aware of some traffic information elements, but were reluctant to act on Party Line Information alone. Finally, the results of both the survey and the simulation indicated that the importance of party line information appeared to be greatest for operations near or on the airport. This indicates that caution should be exercised when implementing datalink communications in tower and close-in terminal control sectors.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.;

Recommendations for Modeling Disaster Responses in Public Health and Medicine: A Position Paper of The Society for Medical Decision Making

PubMed Central

Brandeau, Margaret L.; McCoy, Jessica H.; Hupert, Nathaniel; Holty, Jon-Erik; Bravata, Dena M.

2013-01-01

Purpose Mathematical and simulation models are increasingly used to plan for and evaluate health sector responses to disasters, yet no clear consensus exists regarding best practices for the design, conduct, and reporting of such models. We examined a large selection of published health sector disaster response models to generate a set of best practice guidelines for such models. Methods We reviewed a spectrum of published disaster response models addressing public health or healthcare delivery, focusing in particular on the type of disaster and response decisions considered, decision makers targeted, choice of outcomes evaluated, modeling methodology, and reporting format. We developed initial recommendations for best practices for creating and reporting such models and refined these guidelines after soliciting feedback from response modeling experts and from members of the Society for Medical Decision Making. Results We propose six recommendations for model construction and reporting, inspired by the most exemplary models: Health sector disaster response models should address real-world problems; be designed for maximum usability by response planners; strike the appropriate balance between simplicity and complexity; include appropriate outcomes, which extend beyond those considered in traditional cost-effectiveness analyses; and be designed to evaluate the many uncertainties inherent in disaster response. Finally, good model reporting is particularly critical for disaster response models. Conclusions Quantitative models are critical tools for planning effective health sector responses to disasters. The recommendations we propose can increase the applicability and interpretability of future models, thereby improving strategic, tactical, and operational aspects of preparedness planning and response. PMID:19605887

The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Runsen; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hanaoka, Tatsuya

2018-05-01

The transport sector contributes around a quarter of global CO2 emissions; thus, low-carbon transport policies are required to achieve the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets. In this paper, representative transport policy scenarios are structured with the aim of achieving a better understanding of the interaction between the transport sector and the macroeconomy. To accomplish this, the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model/Transport (AIM/Transport) model, coupled with a computable general equilibrium model (AIM/CGE), is used to simulate the potential for different transport policy interventions to reduce emissions and cost over the period 2005–2100. The results show that deep decarbonization in the transport sector can be achieved by implementing transport policies such as energy efficiency improvements, vehicle technology innovations particularly the deployment of electric vehicles, public transport developments, and increasing the car occupancy rate. Technological transformations such as vehicle technological innovations and energy efficiency improvements provide the most significant reduction potential. The key finding is that low-carbon transport policies can reduce the carbon price, gross domestic product loss rate, and welfare loss rate generated by climate mitigation policies to limit global warming to 2 °C and 1.5 °C. Interestingly, the contribution of transport policies is more effective for stringent climate change targets in the 1.5 °C scenario, which implies that the stronger the mitigation intensity, the more transport specific policy is required. The transport sector requires attention to achieve the goal of stringent climate change mitigation.

Overview of ARPA low-cost ceramic composites (LC{sup 3}) program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adler, P.N.

1996-12-31

Grumman is currently leading an approximate $10M ARPA cost-shared program aimed at developing low-cost fabrication methodology for manufacturing ceramic matrix composite (CMC) structural components. One of the program goals is to demonstrate the effectiveness of an advanced materials partnership. A vertically integrated collaboration now exists that combines the talents of three large private sector organizations, two smaller private sector organizations, three universities, and three federal government laboratories. Work in progress involves preceramic polymer (Blackglas{trademark}) CMC materials technology, RTM and pyrolysis process modeling & simulation, and utilization of low-cost approaches for fabricating a CMC demonstration engine seal component. This paper reviewsmore » the program organization, functioning, and some of the highlights of the technical work, which is of interest to the DoD as well as the commercial sector.« less

Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2013 capability development report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edwards, Brian Keith; Rivera, Michael Kelly; Boero, Riccardo

This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences inmore » the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.« less

A Step-by-Step Framework on Discrete Events Simulation in Emergency Department; A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Dehghani, Mahsa; Moftian, Nazila; Rezaei-Hachesu, Peyman; Samad-Soltani, Taha

2017-01-01

Objective: To systematically review the current literature of simulation in healthcare including the structured steps in the emergency healthcare sector by proposing a framework for simulation in the emergency department. Methods: For the purpose of collecting the data, PubMed and ACM databases were used between the years 2003 and 2013. The inclusion criteria were to select English-written articles available in full text with the closest objectives from among a total of 54 articles retrieved from the databases. Subsequently, 11 articles were selected for further analysis. Results: The studies focused on the reduction of waiting time and patient stay, optimization of resources allocation, creation of crisis and maximum demand scenarios, identification of overcrowding bottlenecks, investigation of the impact of other systems on the existing system, and improvement of the system operations and functions. Subsequently, 10 simulation steps were derived from the relevant studies after an expert’s evaluation. Conclusion: The 10-steps approach proposed on the basis of the selected studies provides simulation and planning specialists with a structured method for both analyzing problems and choosing best-case scenarios. Moreover, following this framework systematically enables the development of design processes as well as software implementation of simulation problems. PMID:28507994

Setting capitation payments in markets for health services

PubMed Central

Ellis, Randall P.; McGuire, Thomas G.

1987-01-01

Health maintenance organizations (HMO's) are paid a capitated amount for enrolled Medicare beneficiaries that is 95 percent of what these enrollees would be expected to cost in the fee-for-service sector. However, it appears that HMO enrollees are less costly than other Medicare beneficiaries. With a simulation model, we demonstrate that with a 95-percent pricing rule, any significant degree of biased selection leads to increased cost to the payer, even when HMO's are cost effective compared with the fee-for-service sector. Optimal pricing percentages from the point of view of cost minimization are considerably less than 95 percent. PMID:10312188

Understanding high wintertime ozone pollution events in an oil and natural gas producing region of the western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadov, R.; McKeen, S.; Trainer, M.; Banta, R.; Brewer, A.; Brown, S.; Edwards, P. M.; de Gouw, J. A.; Frost, G. J.; Gilman, J.; Helmig, D.; Johnson, B.; Karion, A.; Koss, A.; Langford, A.; Lerner, B.; Olson, J.; Oltmans, S.; Peischl, J.; Pétron, G.; Pichugina, Y.; Roberts, J. M.; Ryerson, T.; Schnell, R.; Senff, C.; Sweeney, C.; Thompson, C.; Veres, P.; Warneke, C.; Wild, R.; Williams, E. J.; Yuan, B.; Zamora, R.

2014-08-01

Recent increases in oil and natural gas (NG) production throughout the western US have come with scientific and public interest in emission rates, air quality and climate impacts related to this industry. This study uses a regional scale air quality model WRF-Chem to simulate high ozone (O3) episodes during the winter of 2013 over the Uinta Basin (UB) in northeastern Utah, which is densely populated by thousands of oil and NG wells. The high resolution meteorological simulations are able to qualitatively reproduce the wintertime cold pool conditions that occurred in 2013, allowing the model to reproduce the observed multi-day buildup of atmospheric pollutants and accompanying rapid photochemical ozone formation in the UB. Two different emission scenarios for the oil and NG sector were employed in this study. The first emission scenario (bottom-up) was based on the US EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) (2011, version 1) for the oil and NG sector for the UB. The second emission scenario (top-down) was based on the previously derived estimates of methane (CH4) emissions and a regression analysis for multiple species relative to CH4 concentration measurements in the UB. WRF-Chem simulations using the two emission data sets resulted in significant differences for concentrations of most gas-phase species. Evaluation of the model results shows greater underestimates of CH4 and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the simulation with the NEI-2011 inventory than the case when the top-down emission scenario was used. Unlike VOCs, the NEI-2011 inventory significantly overestimates the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), while the top-down emission scenario results in a moderate negative bias. Comparison of simulations using the two emission data sets reveals that the top-down case captures the high O3 episodes. In contrast, the simulation case using the bottom-up inventory is not able to reproduce any of the observed high O3 concentrations in the UB. A sensitivity analysis reveals that the major factors driving high wintertime O3 in the UB are shallow boundary layers with light winds, high emissions of VOCs from oil and NG operations compared to NOx emissions, enhancement of photolysis fluxes and reduction of O3 loss from deposition due to snow cover. Simple emission reduction scenarios show that the UB O3 production is VOC sensitive and NOx insensitive. The model results show a disproportionate contribution of aromatic VOCs to O3 formation relative to all other VOC emissions. We also present modeling results for winter of 2012, when high O3 levels were not observed in the UB. The air quality model together with the top-down emission framework presented here may help to address the emerging science and policy related questions surrounding the environmental impact of oil and NG drilling in western US.

Cross sectoral impacts on water availability at +2 °C and +3 °C for east Mediterranean island states: The case of Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, A. G.; Grillakis, M. G.; Daliakopoulos, I. N.; Tsanis, I. K.; Jacob, D.

2016-01-01

Ensemble pan-European projections under a 2 °C global warming relative to the preindustrial period reveal a more intense warming in south Eastern Europe by up to +3 °C, thus indicating that impacts of climate change will be disproportionately high for certain regions. The Mediterranean is projected as one of the most vulnerable areas to climatic and anthropogenic changes with decreasing rainfall trends and a continuous gradual warming causing a progressive decline of average stream flow. Many Mediterranean regions are currently experiencing high to severe water stress induced by human and climate drivers. Changes in average climate conditions will increase this stress notably because of a 10-30% decline in freshwater resources. For small island states, where accessibility to freshwater resources is limited the impact will be more pronounced. Here we use a generalized cross-sectoral framework to assess the impact of climatic and socioeconomic futures on the water resources of an Eastern Mediterranean island. A set of representative regional climate models simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative driven by different RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 GCMs are used to form a comparable set of results and a useful basis for the assessment of uncertainties related to impacts of 2° warming and above. A generalized framework of a cross-sectoral water resources analysis was developed in collaboration with the local water authority exploring and costing adaptation measures associated with a set of socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Transient hydrological modeling was performed to describe the projected hydro-climatological regime and water availability for each warming level. The robust signal of less precipitation and higher temperatures that is projected by climate simulations results to a severe decrease of local water resources which can be mitigated by a number of actions. Awareness of the practical implications of plausible hydro-climatic and socio-economic scenarios in the not so distant future may be the key to shift perception and preference towards a more sustainable direction.

Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

PubMed

Lee, R

1983-01-01

There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in the consequences of population in both developed and developing countries. In general cross national studies have failed to provide rough and stylized depiction of the consequences of rapid population growth, unless the absence of significant results is itself the result.

Understanding high wintertime ozone pollution events in an oil- and natural gas-producing region of the western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadov, R.; McKeen, S.; Trainer, M.; Banta, R.; Brewer, A.; Brown, S.; Edwards, P. M.; de Gouw, J. A.; Frost, G. J.; Gilman, J.; Helmig, D.; Johnson, B.; Karion, A.; Koss, A.; Langford, A.; Lerner, B.; Olson, J.; Oltmans, S.; Peischl, J.; Pétron, G.; Pichugina, Y.; Roberts, J. M.; Ryerson, T.; Schnell, R.; Senff, C.; Sweeney, C.; Thompson, C.; Veres, P. R.; Warneke, C.; Wild, R.; Williams, E. J.; Yuan, B.; Zamora, R.

2015-01-01

Recent increases in oil and natural gas (NG) production throughout the western US have come with scientific and public interest in emission rates, air quality and climate impacts related to this industry. This study uses a regional-scale air quality model (WRF-Chem) to simulate high ozone (O3) episodes during the winter of 2013 over the Uinta Basin (UB) in northeastern Utah, which is densely populated by thousands of oil and NG wells. The high-resolution meteorological simulations are able qualitatively to reproduce the wintertime cold pool conditions that occurred in 2013, allowing the model to reproduce the observed multi-day buildup of atmospheric pollutants and the accompanying rapid photochemical ozone formation in the UB. Two different emission scenarios for the oil and NG sector were employed in this study. The first emission scenario (bottom-up) was based on the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emission Inventory (NEI) (2011, version 1) for the oil and NG sector for the UB. The second emission scenario (top-down) was based on estimates of methane (CH4) emissions derived from in situ aircraft measurements and a regression analysis for multiple species relative to CH4 concentration measurements in the UB. Evaluation of the model results shows greater underestimates of CH4 and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the simulation with the NEI-2011 inventory than in the case when the top-down emission scenario was used. Unlike VOCs, the NEI-2011 inventory significantly overestimates the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), while the top-down emission scenario results in a moderate negative bias. The model simulation using the top-down emission case captures the buildup and afternoon peaks observed during high O3 episodes. In contrast, the simulation using the bottom-up inventory is not able to reproduce any of the observed high O3 concentrations in the UB. Simple emission reduction scenarios show that O3 production is VOC sensitive and NOx insensitive within the UB. The model results show a disproportionate contribution of aromatic VOCs to O3 formation relative to all other VOC emissions. The model analysis reveals that the major factors driving high wintertime O3 in the UB are shallow boundary layers with light winds, high emissions of VOCs from oil and NG operations compared to NOx emissions, enhancement of photolysis fluxes and reduction of O3 loss from deposition due to snow cover.

Solar air heating system: design and dynamic simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bououd, M.; Hachchadi, O.; Janusevicius, K.; Martinaitis, V.; Mechaqrane, A.

2018-05-01

The building sector is one of the big energy consumers in Morocco, accounting for about 23% of the country’s total energy consumption. Regarding the population growth, the modern lifestyle requiring more comfort and the increase of the use rate of electronic devices, the energy consumption will continue to increase in the future. In this context, the introduction of renewable energy systems, along with energy efficiency, is becoming a key factor in reducing the energy bill of buildings. This study focuses on the design and dynamic simulation of an air heating system for the mean categories of the tertiary sector where the area exceeds 750 m3. Heating system has been designed via a dynamic simulation environment (TRNSYS) to estimate the produced temperature and airflow rate by one system consisting of three essential components: vacuum tube solar collector, storage tank and water-to-air finned heat exchanger. The performances estimation of this system allows us to evaluate its capacity to meet the heating requirements in Ifrane city based on the prescriptive approach according to the Moroccan Thermal Regulation. The simulation results show that in order to maintain a comfort temperature of 20°C in a building of 750m3, the places requires a thermal powers of approximately 21 kW, 29 kW and 32 kW, respectively, for hotels, hospitals, administrative and public-school. The heat generation is ensured by a solar collector areas of 5 m², 7 m² and 10 m², respectively, for hotels, hospitals, administrative and public-school spaces, a storage tank of 2 m3 and a finned heat exchanger with 24 tubes. The finned tube bundles have been modelled and integrated into the system design via a Matlab code. The heating temperature is adjusted via two controllers to ensure a constant air temperature of 20°C during the heating periods.

Response to droughts and heat waves of the productivity of natural and agricultural ecosystems in Europe within ISI-MIP2 historical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Dury, Marie; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Munhoven, Guy; Friend, Andrew; Rademacher, Tim T.; Hacket Pain, Andrew J.; Hickler, Thomas; Tian, Hanqin; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Ostberg, Sebastian; Chang, Jinfeng; Rafique, Rashid; Nishina, Kazuya

2016-04-01

According to the projections of climate models, extreme events such as droughts and heat waves are expected to become more frequent and more severe in the future. Such events are known to severely impact the productivity of both natural and agricultural ecosystems, and hence to affect ecosystem services such as crop yield and ecosystem carbon sequestration potential. Dynamic vegetation models are conventional tools to evaluate the productivity and carbon sequestration of ecosystems and their response to climate change. However, how far are these models able to correctly represent the sensitivity of ecosystems to droughts and heat waves? How do the responses of natural and agricultural ecosystems compare to each other, in terms of drought-induced changes in productivity and carbon sequestration? In this contribution, we use ISI-MIP2 model historical simulations from the biome sector to tentatively answer these questions. Nine dynamic vegetation models have participated in the biome sector intercomparison of ISI-MIP2: CARAIB, DLEM, HYBRID, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, VEGAS and VISIT. We focus the analysis on well-marked droughts or heat waves that occured in Europe after 1970, such as the 1976, 2003 and 2010 events. For most recent studied events, the model results are compared to the response observed at several eddy covariance sites in Europe, and, at a larger scale, to the changes in crop productivities reported in national statistics or to the drought impacts on gross primary productivity derived from satellite data (Terra MODIS instrument). The sensitivity of the models to the climatological dataset used in the simulations, as well as to the inclusion or not of anthropogenic land use, is also analysed within the studied events. Indeed, the ISI-MIP simulations have been run with four different historical climatic forcings, as well as for several land use/land cover configurations (natural vegetation, fixed land use and variable land use).

Λ CDM is Consistent with SPARC Radial Acceleration Relation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keller, B. W.; Wadsley, J. W., E-mail: kellerbw@mcmaster.ca

2017-01-20

Recent analysis of the Spitzer Photometry and Accurate Rotation Curve (SPARC) galaxy sample found a surprisingly tight relation between the radial acceleration inferred from the rotation curves and the acceleration due to the baryonic components of the disk. It has been suggested that this relation may be evidence for new physics, beyond Λ CDM . In this Letter, we show that 32 galaxies from the MUGS2 match the SPARC acceleration relation. These cosmological simulations of star-forming, rotationally supported disks were simulated with a WMAP3 Λ CDM cosmology, and match the SPARC acceleration relation with less scatter than the observational data.more » These results show that this acceleration relation is a consequence of dissipative collapse of baryons, rather than being evidence for exotic dark-sector physics or new dynamical laws.« less

Characterization and Simulation of the Thermoacoustic Instability Behavior of an Advanced, Low Emissions Combustor Prototype

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLaat, John C.; Paxson, Daniel E.

2008-01-01

Extensive research is being done toward the development of ultra-low-emissions combustors for aircraft gas turbine engines. However, these combustors have an increased susceptibility to thermoacoustic instabilities. This type of instability was recently observed in an advanced, low emissions combustor prototype installed in a NASA Glenn Research Center test stand. The instability produces pressure oscillations that grow with increasing fuel/air ratio, preventing full power operation. The instability behavior makes the combustor a potentially useful test bed for research into active control methods for combustion instability suppression. The instability behavior was characterized by operating the combustor at various pressures, temperatures, and fuel and air flows representative of operation within an aircraft gas turbine engine. Trends in instability behavior versus operating condition have been identified and documented, and possible explanations for the trends provided. A simulation developed at NASA Glenn captures the observed instability behavior. The physics-based simulation includes the relevant physical features of the combustor and test rig, employs a Sectored 1-D approach, includes simplified reaction equations, and provides time-accurate results. A computationally efficient method is used for area transitions, which decreases run times and allows the simulation to be used for parametric studies, including control method investigations. Simulation results show that the simulation exhibits a self-starting, self-sustained combustion instability and also replicates the experimentally observed instability trends versus operating condition. Future plans are to use the simulation to investigate active control strategies to suppress combustion instabilities and then to experimentally demonstrate active instability suppression with the low emissions combustor prototype, enabling full power, stable operation.

Characterization and Simulation of Thermoacoustic Instability in a Low Emissions Combustor Prototype

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLaat, John C.; Paxson, Daniel E.

2008-01-01

Extensive research is being done toward the development of ultra-low-emissions combustors for aircraft gas turbine engines. However, these combustors have an increased susceptibility to thermoacoustic instabilities. This type of instability was recently observed in an advanced, low emissions combustor prototype installed in a NASA Glenn Research Center test stand. The instability produces pressure oscillations that grow with increasing fuel/air ratio, preventing full power operation. The instability behavior makes the combustor a potentially useful test bed for research into active control methods for combustion instability suppression. The instability behavior was characterized by operating the combustor at various pressures, temperatures, and fuel and air flows representative of operation within an aircraft gas turbine engine. Trends in instability behavior vs. operating condition have been identified and documented. A simulation developed at NASA Glenn captures the observed instability behavior. The physics-based simulation includes the relevant physical features of the combustor and test rig, employs a Sectored 1-D approach, includes simplified reaction equations, and provides time-accurate results. A computationally efficient method is used for area transitions, which decreases run times and allows the simulation to be used for parametric studies, including control method investigations. Simulation results show that the simulation exhibits a self-starting, self-sustained combustion instability and also replicates the experimentally observed instability trends vs. operating condition. Future plans are to use the simulation to investigate active control strategies to suppress combustion instabilities and then to experimentally demonstrate active instability suppression with the low emissions combustor prototype, enabling full power, stable operation.

Connection Zones, Surface Water - Groundwater: Aquifers Associated To Niger Central Delta, In Mali.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kone, S.

2016-12-01

Surface water infiltration recharging Mali aquifers occurs through, underlying perched hydrogeological networks, lacustrine zones of the Central Delta or inundation valleys. The mapping of both the Surface water and the Groundwater, their types and availabilities, are briefly presented, and the focus of the study is on the types of hydraulic connections between these water bodies. The aquifers hydraulically connected to the Niger Central Delta flows systems are Continental Terminal/Quaternary, and they concern some areas where either inundation or perennial surface water flow occurs. These aquifers belong to the hydrogeological Unit of Central Delta where the recharge by surface water is estimated to be five percent of the flow loss between the entry and the outlet of this hydrological system. Some attempts of simulation along with a review based on the first studies synthetized in "Synthese Hydrogeologique du Mali" would permit to pave the way to other studies on these hydraulically connected zones in Mali. A previews simulation study, about mapping the potential rate of pumping capacity, corroborates some observed structural characteristics and leads to subdivide the area in two hydrogeological sectors, and the present simulation studies focus on the sector "Macina -Diaka" where surface water are in hydraulic relation with groundwater.

Network analysis of Chinese provincial economies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaoqi; An, Haizhong; Liu, Xiaojia

2018-02-01

Global economic system is a huge network formed by national subnetworks that contains the provincial networks. As the second largest world economy, China has "too big to fail" impact on the interconnected global economy. Detecting the critical sectors and vital linkages inside Chinese economic network is meaningful for understanding the origin of this Chinese impact. Different from tradition network research at national level, this paper focuses on the provincial networks and inter-provincial network. Using Chinese inter-regional input-output table to construct 30 provincial input-output networks and one inter-provincial input-output network, we identify central sectors and vital linkages, as well as analyze economic structure similarity. Results show that (1) Communication Devices sector in Guangdong and that in Jiangsu, Transportation and Storage sector in Shanghai play critical roles in Chinese economy. (2) Advanced manufactures and services industry occupy the central positions in eastern provincial economies, while Construction sector, Heavy industry, and Wholesale and Retail Trades sector are influential in middle and western provinces. (3) The critical monetary flow paths in Chinese economy are Communication Devices sector to Communication Devices sector in Guangdong, Metals Mining sector to Iron and Steel Smelting sector in Henan, Communication Devices sector to Communication Devices sector in Jiangsu, as well as Petroleum Mining sector in Heilongjiang to Petroleum Processing sector in Liaoning. (4) Collective influence results suggest that Finance sector, Transportation and Storage sector, Production of Electricity and Heat sector, and Rubber and Plastics sector in Hainan are strategic influencers, despite being weakly connected. These sectors and input-output relations are worthy of close attention for monitoring Chinese economy.

Job Values in Today's Workforce: A Comparison of Public and Private Sector Employees.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karl, Katherine A.; Sutton, Cynthia L.

1998-01-01

A comparison of 47 public- and 170 private-sector workers revealed private-sector workers value good wages most and public-sector workers value interesting work. Results suggest that employers must keep in touch with employee values to design jobs, reward systems, and human-resource policies that will result in maximum job satisfaction. (JOW)

Impact analysis of leading sub sector on basic sector to regional income in Siak Regency, Riau Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astuti, P.; Nugraha, I.; Abdillah, F.

2018-02-01

During this time Siak regency only known as oil producing regency in Riau province, but based on the vision of spatial planning Siak’s regency in 2031 there was a shift from petroleum towards to other sectors such as agribusiness, agroindustry and tourism. The purpose of this study was to identify the sector base, the leading subsectors and shift with their characteristics and to identify the leading subsectors development priority. The method used in this research consisted of the method of Location Quotient (LQ, Shift Share, and Overlay method). The research results were used Location Quotient (LQ) to identify sector’s base in Siak regency based on the document of PDRB. The sector’s refers to the constant prices year of 2000 were mining and quarrying sector (2.25). The sector’s base using document of PDRB at constant prices 2000 without oil and gas sector was the agricultural sector with a value of LQ was 2,45. The leading sub sector in the Siak regency with mining and quarrying sector was oil and gas (1.02) and leading sub sector without oil and gas sector was the plantation sector (1.48) and forestry sector (1.73). Overlay analysis results shown that agriculture sector as a sector base and plantation and forestry as a leading sub sector has positive value and categorize as progressive and competitiveness. Because of that, this leading sub sector gets high priority to developing.

SAMI2 model results for the quiet time low latitude ionosphere over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, S. S.; Sharma, Shweta; Pandey, R.

2018-04-01

Efficacy of SAMI2 model for the Indian low latitude region around 75°E longitudes has been tested for different levels of solar flux. With a slight modification of the plasma drift velocity the SAMI2 model has been successful in reproducing quiet time ionospheric low latitude features like Equatorial Ionization Anomaly. We have also showed the formation of electron hole in the topside equatorial ionosphere in the Indian sector. Simulation results show the formation of electron hole in the altitude range 800-2500 km over the magnetic equator. Indian zone results reveal marked differences with regard to the time of occurrence, seasonal appearances and strength of the electron hole vis-a-vis those reported for the American equatorial region.

Coupled Oscillator Model of the Business Cycle withFluctuating Goods Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeda, Y.; Aoyama, H.; Fujiwara, Y.; Iyetomi, H.; Ogimoto, K.; Souma, W.; Yoshikawa, H.

The sectoral synchronization observed for the Japanese business cycle in the Indices of Industrial Production data is an example of synchronization. The stability of this synchronization under a shock, e.g., fluctuation of supply or demand, is a matter of interest in physics and economics. We consider an economic system made up of industry sectors and goods markets in order to analyze the sectoral synchronization observed for the Japanese business cycle. A coupled oscillator model that exhibits synchronization is developed based on the Kuramoto model with inertia by adding goods markets, and analytic solutions of the stationary state and the coupling strength are obtained. We simulate the effects on synchronization of a sectoral shock for systems with different price elasticities and the coupling strengths. Synchronization is reproduced as an equilibrium solution in a nearest neighbor graph. Analysis of the order parameters shows that the synchronization is stable for a finite elasticity, whereas the synchronization is broken and the oscillators behave like a giant oscillator with a certain frequency additional to the common frequency for zero elasticity.

The Impact of Individual Anthropogenic Emissions Sectors on the Global Burden of Human Mortality due to Ambient Air Pollution.

PubMed

Silva, Raquel A; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M; West, J Jason

2016-11-01

Exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can cause adverse health effects, including premature mortality due to cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer. Recent studies quantify global air pollution mortality but not the contribution of different emissions sectors, or they focus on a specific sector. We estimated the global mortality burden of anthropogenic ozone and PM2.5, and the impact of five emissions sectors, using a global chemical transport model at a finer horizontal resolution (0.67° × 0.5°) than previous studies. We performed simulations for 2005 using the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4), zeroing out all anthropogenic emissions and emissions from specific sectors (All Transportation, Land Transportation, Energy, Industry, and Residential and Commercial). We estimated premature mortality using a log-linear concentration-response function for ozone and an integrated exposure-response model for PM2.5. We estimated 2.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 3.33) million deaths/year related to anthropogenic PM2.5, with the highest mortality in East Asia (48%). The Residential and Commercial sector had the greatest impact globally-675 (95% CI: 428, 899) thousand deaths/year-and in most regions. Land Transportation dominated in North America (32% of total anthropogenic PM2.5 mortality), and it had nearly the same impact (24%) as Residential and Commercial (27%) in Europe. Anthropogenic ozone was associated with 493 (95% CI: 122, 989) thousand deaths/year, with the Land Transportation sector having the greatest impact globally (16%). The contributions of emissions sectors to ambient air pollution-related mortality differ among regions, suggesting region-specific air pollution control strategies. Global sector-specific actions targeting Land Transportation (ozone) and Residential and Commercial (PM2.5) sectors would particularly benefit human health. Citation: Silva RA, Adelman Z, Fry MM, West JJ. 2016. The impact of individual anthropogenic emissions sectors on the global burden of human mortality due to ambient air pollution. Environ Health Perspect 124:1776-1784; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP177.

Assessment of renewable energy technology and a case of sustainable energy in mobile telecommunication sector.

PubMed

Okundamiya, Michael S; Emagbetere, Joy O; Ogujor, Emmanuel A

2014-01-01

The rapid growth of the mobile telecommunication sectors of many emerging countries creates a number of problems such as network congestion and poor service delivery for network operators. This results primarily from the lack of a reliable and cost-effective power solution within such regions. This study presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles of the renewable energy technology (RET) with the objective of ensuring a reliable and cost-effective energy solution for a sustainable development in the emerging world. The grid-connected hybrid renewable energy system incorporating a power conversion and battery storage unit has been proposed based on the availability, dynamism, and technoeconomic viability of energy resources within the region. The proposed system's performance validation applied a simulation model developed in MATLAB, using a practical load data for different locations with varying climatic conditions in Nigeria. Results indicate that, apart from being environmentally friendly, the increase in the overall energy throughput of about 4 kWh/$ of the proposed system would not only improve the quality of mobile services, by making the operations of GSM base stations more reliable and cost effective, but also better the living standards of the host communities.

Assessment of Renewable Energy Technology and a Case of Sustainable Energy in Mobile Telecommunication Sector

PubMed Central

Okundamiya, Michael S.; Emagbetere, Joy O.; Ogujor, Emmanuel A.

2014-01-01

The rapid growth of the mobile telecommunication sectors of many emerging countries creates a number of problems such as network congestion and poor service delivery for network operators. This results primarily from the lack of a reliable and cost-effective power solution within such regions. This study presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles of the renewable energy technology (RET) with the objective of ensuring a reliable and cost-effective energy solution for a sustainable development in the emerging world. The grid-connected hybrid renewable energy system incorporating a power conversion and battery storage unit has been proposed based on the availability, dynamism, and technoeconomic viability of energy resources within the region. The proposed system's performance validation applied a simulation model developed in MATLAB, using a practical load data for different locations with varying climatic conditions in Nigeria. Results indicate that, apart from being environmentally friendly, the increase in the overall energy throughput of about 4 kWh/$ of the proposed system would not only improve the quality of mobile services, by making the operations of GSM base stations more reliable and cost effective, but also better the living standards of the host communities. PMID:24578673

Infectious disease risk and international tourism demand.

PubMed

Rosselló, Jaume; Santana-Gallego, Maria; Awan, Waqas

2017-05-01

 For some countries, favourable climatic conditions for tourism are often associated with favourable conditions for infectious diseases, with the ensuing development constraints on the tourist sectors of impoverished countries where tourism's economic contribution has a high potential. This paper evaluates the economic implications of eradication of Malaria, Dengue, Yellow Fever and Ebola on the affected destination countries focusing on the tourist expenditures.  A gravity model for international tourism flows is used to provide an estimation of the impact of each travel-related disease on international tourist arrivals. Next the potential eradication of these diseases in the affected countries is simulated and the impact on tourism expenditures is estimated.  The results show that, in the case of Malaria, Dengue, Yellow Fever and Ebola, the eradication of these diseases in the affected countries would result in an increase of around 10 million of tourist worldwide and a rise in the tourism expenditure of 12 billion dollars.  By analysing the economic benefits of the eradication of Dengue, Ebola, Malaria, and Yellow Fever for the tourist sector-a strategic economic sector for many of the countries where these TRD are present-this paper explores a new aspect of the quantification of health policies which should be taken into consideration in future international health assessment programmes. It is important to note that the analysis is only made of the direct impact of the diseases' eradication and consequently the potential multiplicative effects of a growth in the GDP, in terms of tourism attractiveness, are not evaluated. Consequently, the economic results can be considered to be skeleton ones. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Integrating research evidence and physical activity policy making-REPOPA project.

PubMed

Aro, Arja R; Bertram, Maja; Hämäläinen, Riitta-Maija; Van De Goor, Ien; Skovgaard, Thomas; Valente, Adriana; Castellani, Tommaso; Chereches, Razvan; Edwards, Nancy

2016-06-01

Evidence shows that regular physical activity is enhanced by supporting environment. Studies are needed to integrate research evidence into health enhancing, cross-sector physical activity (HEPA) policy making. This article presents the rationale, study design, measurement procedures and the initial results of the first phase of six European countries in a five-year research project (2011-2016), REsearch into POlicy to enhance Physical Activity (REPOPA). REPOPA is programmatic research; it consists of linked studies; the first phase studied the use of evidence in 21 policies in implementation to learn more in depth from the policy making process and carried out 86 qualitative stakeholder interviews. The second, ongoing phase builds on the central findings of the first phase in each country; it consists of two sets of interventions: game simulations to study cross-sector collaboration and organizational change processes in the use of evidence and locally tailored interventions to increase knowledge integration. The results of the first two study phases will be tested and validated among policy makers and other stakeholders in the third phase using a Delphi process. Initial results from the first project phase showed the lack of explicit evidence use in HEPA policy making. Facilitators and barriers of the evidence use were the availability of institutional resources and support but also networking between researchers and policy makers. REPOPA will increase understanding use of research evidence in different contexts; develop guidance and tools and establish sustainable structures such as networks and platforms between academics and policy makers across relevant sectors. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The effects of fatigue on performance in simulated nursing work.

PubMed

Barker, Linsey M; Nussbaum, Maury A

2011-09-01

Fatigue is associated with increased rates of medical errors and healthcare worker injuries, yet existing research in this sector has not considered multiple dimensions of fatigue simultaneously. This study evaluated hypothesised causal relationships between mental and physical fatigue and performance. High and low levels of mental and physical fatigue were induced in 16 participants during simulated nursing work tasks in a laboratory setting. Task-induced changes in fatigue dimensions were quantified using both subjective and objective measures, as were changes in performance on physical and mental tasks. Completing the simulated work tasks increased total fatigue, mental fatigue and physical fatigue in all experimental conditions. Higher physical fatigue adversely affected measures of physical and mental performance, whereas higher mental fatigue had a positive effect on one measure of mental performance. Overall, these results suggest causal effects between manipulated levels of mental and physical fatigue and task-induced changes in mental and physical performance. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: Nurse fatigue and performance has implications for patient and provider safety. Results from this study demonstrate the importance of a multidimensional view of fatigue in understanding the causal relationships between fatigue and performance. The findings can guide future work aimed at predicting fatigue-related performance decrements and designing interventions.

Centralized Cryptographic Key Management and Critical Risk Assessment - CRADA Final Report For CRADA Number NFE-11-03562

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, R. K.; Peters, Scott

The Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE-OE) Cyber Security for Energy Delivery Systems (CSEDS) industry led program (DE-FOA-0000359) entitled "Innovation for Increasing Cyber Security for Energy Delivery Systems (12CSEDS)," awarded a contract to Sypris Electronics LLC to develop a Cryptographic Key Management System for the smart grid (Scalable Key Management Solutions for Critical Infrastructure Protection). Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Sypris Electronics, LLC as a result of that award entered into a CRADA (NFE-11-03562) between ORNL and Sypris Electronics, LLC. ORNL provided its Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) as a tool to be modifiedmore » and used as a metric to address risks and vulnerabilities in the management of cryptographic keys within the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) domain of the electric sector. ORNL concentrated our analysis on the AMI domain of which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) Working Group 1 (WG1) has documented 29 failure scenarios. The computational infrastructure of this metric involves system stakeholders, security requirements, system components and security threats. To compute this metric, we estimated the stakes that each stakeholder associates with each security requirement, as well as stochastic matrices that represent the probability of a threat to cause a component failure and the probability of a component failure to cause a security requirement violation. We applied this model to estimate the security of the AMI, by leveraging the recently established National Institute of Standards and Technology Interagency Report (NISTIR) 7628 guidelines for smart grid security and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 63351, Part 9 to identify the life cycle for cryptographic key management, resulting in a vector that assigned to each stakeholder an estimate of their average loss in terms of dollars per day of system operation. To further address probabilities of threats, information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain from NESCOR WG1. From these five selected scenarios, we characterized them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrated how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.« less

Cryptographic Key Management and Critical Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K

The Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE-OE) CyberSecurity for Energy Delivery Systems (CSEDS) industry led program (DE-FOA-0000359) entitled "Innovation for Increasing CyberSecurity for Energy Delivery Systems (12CSEDS)," awarded a contract to Sypris Electronics LLC to develop a Cryptographic Key Management System for the smart grid (Scalable Key Management Solutions for Critical Infrastructure Protection). Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Sypris Electronics, LLC as a result of that award entered into a CRADA (NFE-11-03562) between ORNL and Sypris Electronics, LLC. ORNL provided its Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) as a tool to be modified and usedmore » as a metric to address risks and vulnerabilities in the management of cryptographic keys within the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) domain of the electric sector. ORNL concentrated our analysis on the AMI domain of which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) Working Group 1 (WG1) has documented 29 failure scenarios. The computational infrastructure of this metric involves system stakeholders, security requirements, system components and security threats. To compute this metric, we estimated the stakes that each stakeholder associates with each security requirement, as well as stochastic matrices that represent the probability of a threat to cause a component failure and the probability of a component failure to cause a security requirement violation. We applied this model to estimate the security of the AMI, by leveraging the recently established National Institute of Standards and Technology Interagency Report (NISTIR) 7628 guidelines for smart grid security and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 63351, Part 9 to identify the life cycle for cryptographic key management, resulting in a vector that assigned to each stakeholder an estimate of their average loss in terms of dollars per day of system operation. To further address probabilities of threats, information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain from NESCOR WG1. From these five selected scenarios, we characterized them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrated how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.« less

Chapter 15: Commercial New Construction Evaluation Protocol. The Uniform Methods Project: Methods for Determining Energy Efficiency Savings for Specific Measures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurnik, Charles W.; Keates, Steven

This protocol is intended to describe the recommended method when evaluating the whole-building performance of new construction projects in the commercial sector. The protocol focuses on energy conservation measures (ECMs) or packages of measures where evaluators can analyze impacts using building simulation. These ECMs typically require the use of calibrated building simulations under Option D of the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP).

Rural-urban migration including formal and informal workers in the urban sector: an agent-based numerical simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branco, Nilton; Oliveira, Tharnier; Silveira, Jaylson

2012-02-01

The goal of this work is to study rural-urban migration in the early stages of industrialization. We use an agent-based model and take into account the existence of informal and formal workers on the urban sector and possible migration movements, dependent on the agents' social and private utilities. Our agents are place on vertices of a square lattice, such that each vertex has only one agent. Rural, urban informal and urban formal workers are represented by different states of a three-state Ising model. At every step, a fraction a of the agents may change sectors or migrate. The total utility of a given agent is then calculated and compared to a random utility, in order to check if this agent turns into an actual migrant or changes sector. The dynamics is carried out until an equilibrium state is reached and equilibrium variables are then calculated and compared to available data. We find that a generalized Harris-Todaro condition is satisfied [1] on these equilibrium regimes, i.e, the ratio between expected wages between any pair of sectors reach a constant value. [4pt] [1] J. J. Silveira, A. L. Esp'indola and T. J. Penna, Physica A, 364, 445 (2006).

A probabilistic approach to emissions from transportation sector in the coming decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

2010-12-01

Future emission estimates are necessary for understanding climate change, designing national and international strategies for air quality control and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so. Most current emission projection models are deterministic; in other words, there is only single answer for each scenario. As a result, uncertainties have not been included in the estimation of climate forcing or other environmental effects, but it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections. We explore uncertainties of emission projections from transportation sector in the coming decades by sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. These projections are based on a technology driven model: the Speciated Pollutants Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend, which responds to socioeconomic conditions in different economic and mitigation scenarios. The model contains detail about technology stock, including consumption growth rates, retirement rates, timing of emission standards, deterioration rates and transition rates from normal vehicles to vehicles with extremely high emission factors (termed “superemitters”). However, understanding of these parameters, as well as relationships with socioeconomic conditions, is uncertain. We project emissions from transportation sectors under four different IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). Due to the later implementation of advanced emission standards, Africa has the highest annual growth rate (1.2-3.1%) from 2010 to 2050. Superemitters begin producing more than 50% of global emissions around year 2020. We estimate uncertainties from the relationships between technological change and socioeconomic conditions and examine their impact on future emissions. Sensitivities to parameters governing retirement rates are highest, causing changes in global emissions from-26% to +55% on average from 2010 to 2050. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to examine how these uncertainties will affect total emissions if any input parameter that has inherent the uncertainties is substituted by a range of values-probability distribution and varies at the same time; the 95% confidence interval of global emission annual growth rate is -1.9% to +0.2% per year.

Searching for solutions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by agricultural policy decisions--Application of system dynamics modeling for the case of Latvia.

PubMed

Dace, Elina; Muizniece, Indra; Blumberga, Andra; Kaczala, Fabio

2015-09-15

European Union (EU) Member States have agreed to limit their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (non-ETS). That includes also emissions from agricultural sector. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has established a methodology for assessment of GHG emissions from agriculture, the forecasting options are limited, especially when policies and their interaction with the agricultural system are tested. Therefore, an advanced tool, a system dynamics model, was developed that enables assessment of effects various decisions and measures have on agricultural GHG emissions. The model is based on the IPCC guidelines and includes the main elements of an agricultural system, i.e. land management, livestock farming, soil fertilization and crop production, as well as feedback mechanisms between the elements. The case of Latvia is selected for simulations, as agriculture generates 22% of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions in the country. The results demonstrate that there are very limited options for GHG mitigation in the agricultural sector. Thereby, reaching the non-ETS GHG emission targets will be very challenging for Latvia, as the level of agricultural GHG emissions will be exceeded considerably above the target levels. Thus, other non-ETS sectors will have to reduce their emissions drastically to "neutralize" the agricultural sector's emissions for reaching the EU's common ambition to move towards low-carbon economy. The developed model may serve as a decision support tool for impact assessment of various measures and decisions on the agricultural system's GHG emissions. Although the model is applied to the case of Latvia, the elements and structure of the model developed are similar to agricultural systems in many countries. By changing numeric values of certain parameters, the model can be applied to analyze decisions and measures in other countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three Dimensional Sector Design with Optimal Number of Sectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Min

2010-01-01

In the national airspace system, sectors get overloaded due to high traffic demand and inefficient airspace designs. Overloads can be eliminated in some cases by redesigning sector boundaries. This paper extends the Voronoi-based sector design method by automatically selecting the number of sectors, allowing three-dimensional partitions, and enforcing traffic pattern conformance. The method was used to design sectors at Fort-Worth and Indianapolis centers for current traffic scenarios. Results show that new designs can eliminate overloaded sectors, although not in all cases, reduce the number of necessary sectors, and conform to major traffic patterns. Overall, the new methodology produces enhanced and efficient sector designs.

Integrating Infrastructures in the United States: Experience and Prospects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilbanks, Thomas

Infrastructure integration has been limited in the United States because infrastructure management responsibilities are fragmented by divisions between sectors and between the public and the private sector, but some changes are under way. Stimulated by a number of extreme events in recent decades, data and modeling capabilities for simulating infrastructure interdependencies have been developed and applied, and infrastructure integration in some cities has been encouraged by such foci as emergency preparedness and “green infrastructure” strategies. Integrative strategies have been explored for energy and water resource systems, in some cases related to other sectors as well. In summary, infrastructure integration inmore » the United States is occurring from the ground up, due in many cases to climate change impacts and risks. A number of examples of successes, supported by broad coalitions of interested parties (with evident sociopolitical payoffs), suggest that integration will increase through time.« less

Image quality improvement in MDCT cardiac imaging via SMART-RECON method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yinsheng; Cao, Ximiao; Xing, Zhanfeng; Sun, Xuguang; Hsieh, Jiang; Chen, Guang-Hong

2017-03-01

Coronary CT angiography (CCTA) is a challenging imaging task currently limited by the achievable temporal resolution of modern Multi-Detector CT (MDCT) scanners. In this paper, the recently proposed SMARTRECON method has been applied in MDCT-based CCTA imaging to improve the image quality without any prior knowledge of cardiac motion. After the prospective ECG-gated data acquisition from a short-scan angular span, the acquired data were sorted into several sub-sectors of view angles; each corresponds to a 1/4th of the short-scan angular range. Information of the cardiac motion was thus encoded into the data in each view angle sub-sector. The SMART-RECON algorithm was then applied to jointly reconstruct several image volumes, each of which is temporally consistent with the data acquired in the corresponding view angle sub-sector. Extensive numerical simulations were performed to validate the proposed technique and investigate the performance dependence.

Ships going slow in reducing their NOx emissions: changes in 2005-2012 ship exhaust inferred from satellite measurements over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folkert Boersma, K.; Vinken, Geert C. M.; Tournadre, Jean

2015-07-01

We address the lack of temporal information on ship emissions, and report on rapid short-term variations of satellite-derived ship NOx emissions between 2005 and 2012 over European seas. Our inversion is based on OMI observed tropospheric NO2 columns and GEOS-Chem simulations. Average European ship NOx emissions increased by ˜15% from 2005 to 2008. This increase was followed by a reduction of ˜12% in 2009, a direct result of the global economic downturn in 2008-2009, and steady emissions from 2009 to 2012. Observations of ship passages through the Suez Canal and satellite altimeter derived ship densities suggests that ships in the Mediterranean Sea have reduced their speed by more than 30% since 2008. This reduction in ship speed is accompanied by a persistent 45% reduction of average, per ship NOx emission factors. Our results indicate that the practice of ‘slow steaming’, i.e. the lowering of vessel speed to reduce fuel consumption, has indeed been implemented since 2008, and can be detected from space. In spite of the implementation of slow steaming, one in seven of all NOx molecules emitted in Europe in 2012 originated from the shipping sector, up from one in nine in 2005. The growing share of the shipping contributions to the overall European NOx emissions suggests a need for the shipping sector to implement additional measures to reduce pollutant emissions at rates that are achieved by the road transport and energy producing sectors in Europe.

Annualized TASAR Benefit Estimate for Virgin America Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henderson, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Request (TASAR) concept offers onboard automation for the purpose of advising the pilot of traffic compatible trajectory changes that would be beneficial to the flight. A fast-time simulation study was conducted to assess the benefits of TASAR to Virgin America. The simulation compares historical trajectories without TASAR to trajectories developed with TASAR and evaluated by controllers against their objectives. It was estimated that about 25,000 gallons of fuel and about 2,500 minutes could be saved annually per aircraft. These savings were applied fleet-wide to produce an estimated annual cost savings to Virgin America in excess of $5 million due to fuel, maintenance, and depreciation cost savings. Switching to a more wind-optimal trajectory was found to be the use case that generated the highest benefits out of the three TASAR use cases analyzed. Virgin America TASAR requests peaked at two to four requests per hour per sector in high-altitude Oakland and Salt Lake City center sectors east of San Francisco.

Annualized TASAR Benefits for Virgin America Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2014-01-01

The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Request (TASAR) concept offers onboard automation for the purpose of advising the pilot of traffic compatible trajectory changes that would be beneficial to the flight. A fast-time simulation study was conducted to assess the benefits of TASAR to Virgin America. The simulation compares historical trajectories without TASAR to trajectories developed with TASAR and evaluated by controllers against their objectives. It was estimated that about 25,000 gallons of fuel and about 2,500 minutes could be saved annually per aircraft. These savings were applied fleet-wide to produce an estimated annual cost savings to Virgin America in excess of $5 million due to fuel, maintenance, and depreciation cost savings. Switching to a more wind-optimal trajectory was found to be the use case that generated the highest benefits out of the three TASAR use cases analyzed. Virgin America TASAR requests peaked at two to four requests per hour per sector in high-altitude Oakland and Salt Lake City center sectors east of San Francisco.

Analysis of error-correction constraints in an optical disk.

PubMed

Roberts, J D; Ryley, A; Jones, D M; Burke, D

1996-07-10

The compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM) is a mature storage medium with complex error control. It comprises four levels of Reed Solomon codes allied to a sequence of sophisticated interleaving strategies and 8:14 modulation coding. New storage media are being developed and introduced that place still further demands on signal processing for error correction. It is therefore appropriate to explore thoroughly the limit of existing strategies to assess future requirements. We describe a simulation of all stages of the CD-ROM coding, modulation, and decoding. The results of decoding the burst error of a prescribed number of modulation bits are discussed in detail. Measures of residual uncorrected error within a sector are displayed by C1, C2, P, and Q error counts and by the status of the final cyclic redundancy check (CRC). Where each data sector is encoded separately, it is shown that error-correction performance against burst errors depends critically on the position of the burst within a sector. The C1 error measures the burst length, whereas C2 errors reflect the burst position. The performance of Reed Solomon product codes is shown by the P and Q statistics. It is shown that synchronization loss is critical near the limits of error correction. An example is given of miscorrection that is identified by the CRC check.

Analysis of error-correction constraints in an optical disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Jonathan D.; Ryley, Alan; Jones, David M.; Burke, David

1996-07-01

The compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM) is a mature storage medium with complex error control. It comprises four levels of Reed Solomon codes allied to a sequence of sophisticated interleaving strategies and 8:14 modulation coding. New storage media are being developed and introduced that place still further demands on signal processing for error correction. It is therefore appropriate to explore thoroughly the limit of existing strategies to assess future requirements. We describe a simulation of all stages of the CD-ROM coding, modulation, and decoding. The results of decoding the burst error of a prescribed number of modulation bits are discussed in detail. Measures of residual uncorrected error within a sector are displayed by C1, C2, P, and Q error counts and by the status of the final cyclic redundancy check (CRC). Where each data sector is encoded separately, it is shown that error-correction performance against burst errors depends critically on the position of the burst within a sector. The C1 error measures the burst length, whereas C2 errors reflect the burst position. The performance of Reed Solomon product codes is shown by the P and Q statistics. It is shown that synchronization loss is critical near the limits of error correction. An example is given of miscorrection that is identified by the CRC check.

High-resolution quantification of atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugliese, Stephanie C.; Murphy, Jennifer G.; Vogel, Felix R.; Moran, Michael D.; Zhang, Junhua; Zheng, Qiong; Stroud, Craig A.; Ren, Shuzhan; Worthy, Douglas; Broquet, Gregoire

2018-03-01

Many stakeholders are seeking methods to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in urban areas, but reliable, high-resolution inventories are required to guide these efforts. We present the development of a high-resolution CO2 inventory available for the Greater Toronto Area and surrounding region in Southern Ontario, Canada (area of ˜ 2.8 × 105 km2, 26 % of the province of Ontario). The new SOCE (Southern Ontario CO2 Emissions) inventory is available at the 2.5 × 2.5 km spatial and hourly temporal resolution and characterizes emissions from seven sectors: area, residential natural-gas combustion, commercial natural-gas combustion, point, marine, on-road, and off-road. To assess the accuracy of the SOCE inventory, we developed an observation-model framework using the GEM-MACH chemistry-transport model run on a high-resolution grid with 2.5 km grid spacing coupled to the Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS) v2 inventories for anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land carbon model C-TESSEL for biogenic fluxes. A run using FFDAS for the Southern Ontario region was compared to a run in which its emissions were replaced by the SOCE inventory. Simulated CO2 mixing ratios were compared against in situ measurements made at four sites in Southern Ontario - Downsview, Hanlan's Point, Egbert and Turkey Point - in 3 winter months, January-March 2016. Model simulations had better agreement with measurements when using the SOCE inventory emissions versus other inventories, quantified using a variety of statistics such as correlation coefficient, root-mean-square error, and mean bias. Furthermore, when run with the SOCE inventory, the model had improved ability to capture the typical diurnal pattern of CO2 mixing ratios, particularly at the Downsview, Hanlan's Point, and Egbert sites. In addition to improved model-measurement agreement, the SOCE inventory offers a sectoral breakdown of emissions, allowing estimation of average time-of-day and day-of-week contributions of different sectors. Our results show that at night, emissions from residential and commercial natural-gas combustion and other area sources can contribute > 80 % of the CO2 enhancement, while during the day emissions from the on-road sector dominate, accounting for > 70 % of the enhancement.

Mapping alternative energy paths for taiwan to reach a sustainable future: An application of the leap model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wei-Ming

Energy is the backbone of modern life which is highly related to national security, economic growth, and environmental protection. For Taiwan, a region having limited conventional energy resources but constructing economies and societies with high energy intensity, energy became the throat of national security and development. This dissertation explores energy solutions for Taiwan by constructing a sustainable and comprehensive energy planning framework (SCENE) and by simulating alternative energy pathways on the horizon to 2030. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) is used as a platform for the energy simulation. The study models three scenarios based on the E4 (energy -- environment -- economic -- equity) perspectives. Three scenarios refer to the business-as-usual scenario (BAU), the government target scenario (GOV), and the renewable and efficiency scenario (REEE). The simulation results indicate that the most promising scenario for Taiwan is the REEE scenario, which aims to save 48.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of final energy consumption. It avoids USD 11.1 billion on electricity expenditure in final demand sectors. In addition, the cost of the REEE path is the lowest among all scenarios before 2020 in the electricity generation sector. In terms of global warming potential (GWP), the REEE scenario could reduce 35 percent of the GWP in the demand sectors, the lowest greenhouse gases emission in relation to all other scenarios. Based on lowest energy consumption, competitive cost, and least harm to the environment, the REEE scenario is the best option to achieve intergenerational equity. This dissertation proposes that promoting energy efficiency and utilizing renewable energy is the best strategy for Taiwan. For efficiency improvement, great energy saving potentials do exist in Taiwan so that Taiwan needs more ambitious targets, policies, and implementation mechanisms for energy efficiency enhancement to slow down and decrease total final energy demand in the long term. In terms of adopting renewable energy, this dissertation suggests increasing the proportion of renewable electricity to 30 percent by 2030, using proven and market competitive renewable technologies to harvest Taiwan's abundant renewable potential. To achieve this goal, it is crucial to construct stable funding sources and promote the transparency, longevity, and certainty of policies.

Baryon-antibaryon annihilation and reproduction in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seifert, E.; Cassing, W.

2018-02-01

The quark rearrangement model for baryon-antibaryon annihilation and reproduction (B B ¯↔3 M )—incorporated in the Parton-Hadron-String Dynamics (PHSD) transport approach—is extended to the strangeness sector. A derivation of the transition probabilities for the three-body processes is presented and a strangeness suppression factor for the invariant matrix element squared is introduced to account for the higher mass of the strange quark compared to the light up and down quarks. In simulations of the baryon-antibaryon annihilation and reformation in a box with periodic boundary conditions, we demonstrate that our numerical implementation fulfills detailed balance on a channel-by-channel basis for more than 2000 individual 2 ↔3 channels. Furthermore, we study central Pb+Pb collisions within PHSD from 11.7 A GeV to 158 A GeV and investigate the impact of the additionally implemented reaction channels in the strangeness sector. We find that the new reaction channels have a visible impact essentially only on the rapidity spectra of antibaryons. The spectra with the additional channels in the strangeness sector are closer to the experimental data than without for all antihyperons. Due to the chemical redistribution between baryons-antibaryons and mesons we find a slightly larger production of antiprotons thus moderately overestimating the available experimental data. We additionally address the question if the antibaryon spectra (with strangeness) from central heavy-ion reactions at these energies provide further information on the issue of chiral symmetry restoration and deconfinement. However, by comparing transport results with and without partonic phase as well as including and excluding effects from chiral symmetry restoration we find no convincing signals in the strange antibaryon sector for either transition due to the strong final-state interactions.

Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of atmospheric emissions of Cd, Cr, and Pb from coal in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Hezhong; Cheng, Ke; Wang, Yan; Zhao, Dan; Lu, Long; Jia, Wenxiao; Hao, Jiming

2012-04-01

Multiple-year inventory of atmospheric emissions of cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), and lead (Pb) from coal burning in China have been established for the period 1980-2008 by using best available emission factors and annual activity data which are specified by different sub-categories of combustion facilities, coal types, and air pollution control devices. Our results show that the total emissions of Cd, Cr, and Pb have rapidly increased from 31.14 t, 1019.07 t, and 2671.73 t in 1980 to 261.52 t, 8593.35 t, and 12 561.77 t in 2008, respectively. The industrial sector ranks as the leading source, contributing ˜88.3%, ˜86.7%, and ˜81.8% of the total Cd, Cr, and Pb emissions, respectively. Remarkably uneven spatial allocation features are observed. The emissions are primarily concentrated in the provinces of the northern and eastern region of China owing to the dramatic difference in coal use by the industrial and power sectors. Monthly temporal emission profiles for different sectors are established by using indexes such as monthly thermal electricity generation, monthly gross industrial output values and monthly average ambient temperature. For the power plants, there are two peaks during cold and hot season while for the industrial sector, emissions are most substantial in the summer and autumn season. Further, uncertainties in the bottom-up inventories are quantified by Monte Carlo simulation, and the overall uncertainties are demonstrated as -16% to 45% for Cd, -13% to 20% for Cr, and -21% to 48% for Pb, respectively. To better understand the emissions of these metals and to adopt effective measures to prevent poisoning, more specific data collection and analysis are necessary.

A Human-in-the-Loop Evaluation of Multi-Sector Planning in Mixed Equipage Airspace (MSP III)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Nancy; Prevot, Tom; Kessell, Angela; Homola, Jeff; Lee, Hwasoo; Mercer, Joey; Brasil, Connie; Mainini, Matt; Lee, Paul

2011-01-01

A human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation was conducted in May 2010 to determine the feasibility and value 01 conducting multi-sector planning (MSP) operations in a mixed equipage environment. Aircraft were categorized as equipped or unequipped based on the presence or absence of an air-ground data communications (Data Comm) capability for receiving auto-loadable clearances and transfer of communication messages from the air navigation service provider (ANSP). The purpose of the study was to determine the feasibility and possible benefits of introducing multi-sector planning in a mixed equipage context, or whether Data Comm equipage was required for MSP operations. Each test scenario presented one of three different equipage levels to the controllers (10%, 50% or 90% equipped aircraft), so that the operational impact of different equipage levels could be observed. Operational feasibility assessment addressed two related questions: (1) are MSP operations feasible for unequipped aircraft, and (2) are they feasible in a mixed equipage context. Similarly, two categories of potential benefits were explored: (1) system performance improvements (e.g., throughput, workload) associated with MSP at different equipage levels, and (2) the possibility of providing differential service for equipage through MSP operations. Tool requirements (for both planning and controller stations), as well as planning and coordination procedures - within facility (traffic management unit/operational area) and within sector (R-Side/D-Side) - were two other topics addressed in the study. Overall, results suggested that MSP operations were feasible in a mixed equipage environment and that the tools were effective with both equipped and unequipped aircraft. Using the MSP tools, traffic management coordinators were able to manage controller task load, effectively balancing throughput with complexity and controller task load at each of the three equipage levels tested.

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Production, Distribution, and Consumption in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, A. V.; Tereshin, A. G.; Fedotova, E. V.

2018-05-01

An assessment of the overall impact of the observed and expected climatic changes on energy production, distribution, and consumption in Russia is presented. Climate model results of various complexity and evaluation data on the vulnerability of various energy production sectors to climate change are presented. It is shown that, due to the increase of air temperature, the efficiency of electricity production at thermal and nuclear power plants declines. According to the climate model results, the production of electricity at TPPs and NPPs by 2050 could be reduced by 6 billion kW h due to the temperature increase. At the same time, as a result of simulation, the expected increase in the rainfall amount and river runoff in Russia by 2050 could lead to an increase in the output of HPP by 4-6% as compared with the current level, i.e., by 8 billion kW h. For energy transmission and distribution, the climate warming will mean an increase in transmission losses, which, according to estimates, may amount to approximately 1 billion kW h by 2050. The increase of air temperature in summer will require higher energy consumption for air conditioning, which will increase by approximately 6 billion kW h by 2050. However, in total, the optimal energy consumption in Russia, corresponding to the postindustrial level, will decrease by 2050 by approximately 150 billion kW h as a result of climate- induced changes. The maximum global warming impact is focused on the heat demand sector. As a result of a decrease in the heating degree-days by 2050, the need for space heating is expected to fall by 10-15%, which will cause a fuel conservation sufficient for generating approximately 140 billion kW h of electricity. Hence, a conclusion about the positive direct impact of climate change on the Russia's energy sector follows, which is constituted in the additional available energy resource of approximately 300 billion kW h per year.

Computable General Equilibrium Model Fiscal Year 2013 Capability Development Report - April 2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edwards, Brian Keith; Rivera, Michael K.; Boero, Riccardo

2014-04-01

This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences inmore » the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.« less

An Orbital Trap Mass Analyzer Using a Hybrid Magnetic-Electric Field: A Simulation Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chongsheng; Wu, Fangling; Ding, Li; Ding, Chuan-Fan

2018-03-01

An orbital ion trap mass analyzer employing hybrid magnetic-electric field was designed and simulated. The trap has a rotational symmetrical structure and the hybrid trapping field was created in a toroidal space between 12 pairs of sector detection electrodes. Ion injection and ion orbital motion inside the trap were simulated using SIMION 8.1 with a user Lua program, and the required electric and magnetic field were investigated. The image charge signal can be picked up by the 12 pairs of detection electrodes and the mass resolution was evaluated using FFT. The simulated resolving power for the optimized configuration over 79,000 FWHM was obtained at the magnetic induction intensity of 0.5 Tesla in the simulation. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Evolving a Simulation Model Product Line Software Architecture from Heterogeneous Model Representations

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-01

resolution M&S concept for integrating heterogeneous M&S into the hierarchy has existed since the early 1980s [DH92a, DH92b]. 25...groups [PAD78]. The need for credible M&S grew in the Nation’s private and public sectors. By 1980 , information from computer-based simulations...formal) identified in the [GMS+96 and RPG00]. We noted that systemic issues identi- fied in by reports, studies, and assessments the early 1980s

Accessibility and potency of uterotonic drugs purchased by simulated clients in four districts in India.

PubMed

Stanton, Cynthia; Nand, Deepak Nitya; Koski, Alissa; Mirzabagi, Ellie; Brooke, Steve; Grady, Breanne; Mullany, Luke C

2014-11-13

Surveillance of drug quality for antibiotics, antiretrovirals, antimalarials and vaccines is better established than surveillance for maternal health drugs in low-income countries, particularly uterotonic drugs for the prevention and treatment of postpartum hemorrhage. The objectives of this study are to: assess private sector accessibility of four drugs used for uterotonic purposes (oxytocin, methylergometrine, misoprostol, valethamate bromide); and to assess potency of oxytocin and methylergometrine ampoules purchased by simulated clients. The study was conducted in Hassan and Bagalkot districts in Karnataka state and Agra and Gorakhpur districts in Uttar Pradesh state. A sample of 877 private pharmacies was selected (using a stratified, systematic sampling with random start), among which 847 were successfully visited. The target sample size for assessment of accessibility was 50 pharmacies per drug, per district. The target sample size for potency assessment was 100 purchases each of oxytocin and methylergometrine across all districts. Successful drug purchases varied by state. In Agra and Gorakhpur, 90%-100% of visits for each of the drugs resulted in a purchase. In Bagalkot and Hassan, only 29%-52% of visits for each drug resulted in a purchase. Regarding potency, the percent of active pharmaceutical ingredient was assessed using United States Pharmacopeia monograph #33 for both drugs; 193 and 188 ampoules of oxytocin and methylergometrine, respectively, were assessed. The percent of oxytocin ampoules outside manufacturer specification ranged from 33%-40% in Karnataka and from 22%-50% in Uttar Pradesh. In Bagalkot and Hassan, 96% and 100% of the methylergometrine ampoules were outside manufacturer specification, respectively. In Agra and Gorakhpur, 54% and 44% were outside manufacturer specification, respectively. Private sector accessibility of uterotonic drugs in study districts in Karnataka warrants attention. Most importantly, interventions to assure quality oxytocin and particularly methylergometrine are needed in study districts in both states.

On the Morphology of a Growing City: A Heuristic Experiment Merging Static Economics with Dynamic Geography.

PubMed

Delloye, Justin; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle

2015-01-01

In this paper, we aim at exploring how individual location decisions affect the shape of a growing city and, more precisely, how they may add up to a configuration that diverges from equilibrium configurations formulated ex-ante. To do so, we provide a two-sector city model merging a static equilibrium analysis with agent-based simulations. Results show that under strong agglomeration effects, urban development is monotonic and ends up with circular, monocentric long-term configurations. For low agglomeration effects however, elongated and multicentric urban configurations may emerge. The occurrence and underlying dynamics of these configurations are also discussed regarding commuting costs and the distance-decay of agglomeration economies between firms. To sum up, our paper warns urban planning policy makers against the difference that may stand between appropriate long-term perspectives, represented here by analytic equilibrium configurations, and short-term urban configurations, simulated here by a multi-agent system.

Fractional-order in a macroeconomic dynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, S. A.; Quintino, D. D.; Soliani, J.

2013-10-01

In this paper, we applied the Riemann-Liouville approach in order to realize the numerical simulations to a set of equations that represent a fractional-order macroeconomic dynamic model. It is a generalization of a dynamic model recently reported in the literature. The aforementioned equations have been simulated for several cases involving integer and non-integer order analysis, with some different values to fractional order. The time histories and the phase diagrams have been plotted to visualize the effect of fractional order approach. The new contribution of this work arises from the fact that the macroeconomic dynamic model proposed here involves the public sector deficit equation, which renders the model more realistic and complete when compared with the ones encountered in the literature. The results reveal that the fractional-order macroeconomic model can exhibit a real reasonable behavior to macroeconomics systems and might offer greater insights towards the understanding of these complex dynamic systems.

Comparisons of Simulated and Observed Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream (SAPS) during the 17 March 2013 Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Lemon, C.; Sazykin, S. Y.; Wolf, R.; Anderson, P. C.

2016-12-01

Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS), characterized by large subauroral E x B velocities that span from dusk to the early morning sector for high magnetic activity, result from strong magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. We investigate how electron and ion precipitation and the ionospheric conductance affect the simulated development of the SAPS electric field for the 17 March 2013 storm. Our approach is to use the magnetically and electrically self-consistent Rice Convection Model - Equilibrium (RCM-E) of the inner magnetosphere to simulate the SAPS. We use parameterized rates of whistler-generated electron pitch-angle scattering from Orlova and Shprits [JGR, 2014] that depend on equatorial radial distance, magnetic activity (Kp), and magnetic local time (MLT) outside the simulated plasmasphere. Inside the plasmasphere, parameterized scattering rates due to hiss [Orlova et al., GRL, 2014] are used. Ions are scattered at a fraction of strong pitch-angle scattering where the fraction is scaled by epsilon, the ratio of the gyroradius to the field-line radius of curvature, when epsilon is greater than 0.1. The electron and proton contributions to the auroral conductance in the RCM-E are calculated using the empirical Robinson et al. [JGR, 1987] and Galand and Richmond [JGR, 2001] equations, respectively. The "background" ionospheric conductance is based on parameters from the International Reference Ionosphere [Bilitza and Reinisch, JASR, 2008] but modified to include the effect of specified ionospheric troughs. Parameterized simulations will aid in understanding the underlying physical process. We compare simulated precipitating particle energy flux and E x B velocities with DMSP observations where SAPS are observed during the 17 March 2013 storm. Analysis of discerpancies between the simulation results and data will aid us in assessing needed improvements in the model.

Sector Activities and Lessons Learned Around Initial Implementation of the United States National Physical Activity Plan

PubMed Central

Evenson, Kelly R.; Satinsky, Sara B.

2016-01-01

Background National plans are increasingly common but infrequently evaluated. The 2010 United States National Physical Activity Plan (NPAP) provided strategies to increase population levels of physical activity. This paper describes (i) the initial accomplishments of the NPAP sector teams, and (ii) results from a process evaluation to determine how the sectors operated, their cross-sector collaboration, challenges encountered, and positive experiences. Methods During 2011, a quarterly reporting system was developed to capture sector-level activities. A year-end interview derived more detailed information. Interviews with 12 sector leads were recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed for common themes. Results The 6 sectors worked on goals from the implementation plan that focused broadly on education, promotion, intervention, policy, collaboration, and evaluation. Through year-end interviews, themes were generated around operations, goal setting, and cross-sector collaboration. Challenges to the NPAP work included lack of funding and time, the need for marketing and promotion, and organizational support. Positive experiences included collaboration, efficiency of work, enhanced community dynamic, and accomplishments toward NPAP goals. Conclusions These initial results on the NPAP sector teams can be used as a baseline assessment for future monitoring. The lessons learned may be useful to other practitioners developing evaluations around state- or national-level plans. PMID:24176800

Sectoral linkage analysis of three main air pollutants in China's industry: Comparing 2010 with 2002.

PubMed

He, Weiwei; Wang, Yuan; Zuo, Jian; Luo, Yincheng

2017-11-01

To investigate the driving forces of air pollution in China, the changes in linkages amongst inter-industrial air pollutant emissions were analyzed by hypothetical extraction method under the input-output framework. Results showed that the emissions of SO 2 , soot and dust from industrial sources increased by 56.46%, 36.95% and 11.69% respectively in 2010, compared with 2002. As major contributors to emissions, the power and gas sectors were responsible for the growing SO 2 emissions, the nonmetal products sector for soot emissions, and the metals mining, smelting and pressing sectors for dust emissions. The increasing volume of emissions was mainly driven by the growing demand in the transport equipment and electrical equipment sectors. In addition, the expansion in the metals mining, smelting and pressing sectors could result in even more severe air pollution. Therefore, potential effective strategies to control air pollution in China are: (1) reducing the demand of major import sectors in the equipment manufacturing industry; (2) promoting R&D in low-emissions-production technologies to the power and gas sectors, the metals mining, smelting and pressing sectors, and the nonmetal products sector, and (3) auditing the considerable industrial scale expansion in the metals mining, smelting and pressing sectors and optimizing the industrial structure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Collection of Calibration and Validation Data for an Airport Landside Dynamic Simulation Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-04-01

movements. The volume of skiers passing through Denver is sufficiently large to warrant the installation of special check-in counters for passengers with...Terminal, only seven sectors were used. Training Procedures MIA was the first of the three airports surveyed. A substantial amount of knowledge and

Exitus: An Agent-Based Evacuation Simulation Model for Heterogeneous Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manley, Matthew T.

2012-01-01

Evacuation planning for private-sector organizations is an important consideration given the continuing occurrence of both natural and human-caused disasters that inordinately affect them. Unfortunately, the traditional management approach that is focused on fire drills presents several practical challenges at the scale required for many…

Prospective Memory and Task Interference in a Continuous Monitoring Dynamic Display Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loft, Shayne; Remington, Roger W.

2010-01-01

Theories and methods from the prospective memory literature were used to anticipate how individuals would maintain and retrieve intentions in a continuous monitoring dynamic display task. Participants accepted aircraft into sectors and detected aircraft conflicts during an air traffic control simulation. They were sometimes required to substitute…

The Simulation of a Major Automated Information System (AIS) on a Microcomputer

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-03-01

The AIS would be selected from a public zec cor application. Rationale for this choice are: a. Many public sector organizations have a far richer...19. Boehm, Barry W. and others, Characteristics of Software Quality, North-Holland, 1978. 20. Freeman, Peter and Wasserman, Anthony I., Tutorial on

Examining Long-Term Trends in Mobile Source Related Pollutants through Analysis of Emissions, Observations and Model Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic emissions from a variety of sectors including mobile sources have decreased substantially over the past decades despite continued growth in population and economic activity. In this study, we analyze 1990-2010 trends in emission inventories, ambient observations and...

Water footprint characteristic of less developed water-rich regions: Case of Yunnan, China.

PubMed

Qian, Yiying; Dong, Huijuan; Geng, Yong; Zhong, Shaozhuo; Tian, Xu; Yu, Yanhong; Chen, Yihui; Moss, Dana Avery

2018-03-30

Rapid industrialization and urbanization pose pressure on water resources in China. Virtual water trade proves to be an increasingly useful tool in water stress alleviation for water-scarce regions, while bringing opportunities and challenges for less developed water-rich regions. In this study, Yunnan, a typical province in southwest China, was selected as the case study area to explore its potential in socio-economic development in the context of water sustainability. Both input-output analysis and structural decomposition analysis on Yunnan's water footprint for the period of 2002-2012 were performed at not only an aggregated level but also a sectoral level. Results show that although the virtual water content of all economic sectors decreased due to technological progress, Yunnan's total water footprint still increased as a result of economic scale expansion. From the sectoral perspective, sectors with large water footprints include construction sector, agriculture sector, food manufacturing & processing sector, and service sector, while metal products sector and food manufacturing & processing sector were the major virtual water exporters, and textile & clothing sector and construction sector were the major importers. Based on local conditions, policy suggestions were proposed, including economic structure and efficiency optimization, technology promotion and appropriate virtual water trade scheme. This study provides valuable insights for regions facing "resource curse" by exploring potential socio-economic progress while ensuring water security. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A view to the future of natural gas and electricity: An integrated modeling approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J.; Medlock, Kenneth B.; Jani, Aditya

This paper demonstrates the value of integrating two highly spatially resolved models: the Rice World Gas Trade Model (RWGTM) of the natural gas sector and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model of the U.S. electricity sector. The RWGTM passes electricity-sector natural gas prices to the ReEDS model, while the ReEDS model returns electricity-sector natural gas demand to the RWGTM. The two models successfully converge to a solution under reference scenario conditions. We present electricity-sector and natural gas sector evolution using the integrated models for this reference scenario. This paper demonstrates that the integrated models produced similar national-level results asmore » when running in a stand-alone form, but that regional and state-level results can vary considerably. As we highlight, these regional differences have potentially significant implications for electric sector planners especially in the wake of substantive policy changes for the sector (e.g., the Clean Power Plan).« less

A view to the future of natural gas and electricity: An integrated modeling approach

DOE PAGES

Cole, Wesley J.; Medlock, Kenneth B.; Jani, Aditya

2016-03-17

This paper demonstrates the value of integrating two highly spatially resolved models: the Rice World Gas Trade Model (RWGTM) of the natural gas sector and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model of the U.S. electricity sector. The RWGTM passes electricity-sector natural gas prices to the ReEDS model, while the ReEDS model returns electricity-sector natural gas demand to the RWGTM. The two models successfully converge to a solution under reference scenario conditions. We present electricity-sector and natural gas sector evolution using the integrated models for this reference scenario. This paper demonstrates that the integrated models produced similar national-level results asmore » when running in a stand-alone form, but that regional and state-level results can vary considerably. As we highlight, these regional differences have potentially significant implications for electric sector planners especially in the wake of substantive policy changes for the sector (e.g., the Clean Power Plan).« less

The number of privately treated tuberculosis cases in India: an estimation from drug sales data.

PubMed

Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Batra, Deepak; Khaparde, Sunil; Vualnam, Thongsuanmung; Maheshwari, Nilesh; Sharma, Lokesh; Nair, Sreenivas A; Dewan, Puneet

2016-11-01

Understanding the amount of tuberculosis managed by the private sector in India is crucial to understanding the true burden of the disease in the country, and thus globally. In the absence of quality surveillance data on privately treated patients, commercial drug sales data offer an empirical foundation for disease burden estimation. We used a large, nationally representative commercial dataset on sales of 189 anti-tuberculosis products available in India to calculate the amount of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2013-14. We corrected estimates using validation studies that audited prescriptions against tuberculosis diagnosis, and estimated uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation. To address implications for numbers of patients with tuberculosis, we explored varying assumptions for average duration of tuberculosis treatment and accuracy of private diagnosis. There were 17·793 million patient-months (95% credible interval 16·709 million to 19·841 million) of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2014, twice as many as the public sector. If 40-60% of private-sector tuberculosis diagnoses are correct, and if private-sector tuberculosis treatment lasts on average 2-6 months, this implies that 1·19-5·34 million tuberculosis cases were treated in the private sector in 2014 alone. The midpoint of these ranges yields an estimate of 2·2 million cases, two to three times higher than currently assumed. India's private sector is treating an enormous number of patients for tuberculosis, appreciably higher than has been previously recognised. Accordingly, there is a re-doubled need to address this burden and to strengthen surveillance. Tuberculosis burden estimates in India and worldwide require revision. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Pilot and Controller Workload and Situation Awareness with Three Traffic Management Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vu, Kim-Phuong L.; Strybel, Thomas Z.; Kraut, Joshua; Bacon, Paige; Minakata, Katsumi; Battiste, Vernol; Johnson, Walter

2010-01-01

This paper reports on workload and situation awareness of pilots and controllers participating in a human-in-the-loop simulation using three different distributed air-ground traffic management concepts. Eight experimental pilots started the scenario in an en-route phase of flight and were asked to avoid convective weather while performing spacing and merging tasks along with a continuous descent approach (CDA) into Louisville Standiford Airport (SDF). Two controllers managed the sectors through which the pilots flew, with one managing a sector that included the Top of Descent, and the other managing a sector that included the merge point for arrival into SDF. At 3-minute intervals in the scenario, pilots and controllers were probed on their workload or situation awareness. We employed one of three concepts of operation that distributed separation responsibility across human controllers, pilots, and automation to measure changes in operator situation awareness and workload. We found that when pilots were responsible for separation, they had higher levels of awareness, but not necessarily higher levels of workload. When controllers are responsible and actively engaged, they showed higher workload levels compared to pilots and changes in awareness that were dependent on sector characteristics.

RAM-SCB simulations of electron transport and plasma wave scattering during the October 2012 “double-dip” storm

DOE PAGES

Jordanova, Vania Koleva; Tu, Weichao; Chen, Yue; ...

2016-09-01

Here, mechanisms for electron injection, trapping, and loss in the near-Earth space environment are investigated during the October 2012 “double-dip” storm using our magnetically self-consistent ring current model (RAM-SCB). Pitch angle and energy scattering are included for the first time in RAM-SCB using L and magnetic local time (MLT) dependent event-specific chorus wave models inferred from NOAA POES and Van Allen Probes EMFISIS observations. The dynamics of the source (~10s keV) and seed (~100s keV) populations of the radiation belts simulated with RAM-SCB is compared with Van Allen Probes MagEIS observations in the morning sector and with measurements from NOAA-15more » satellite in the predawn and afternoon MLT sectors. We find that although the low-energy (E < 100 keV) electron fluxes are in good agreement with observations, increasing significantly by magnetospheric convection during both SYM-H dips while decreasing during the intermediate recovery phase, the injection of high-energy electrons is underestimated by this mechanism throughout the storm. Local acceleration by chorus waves intensifies the electron fluxes at E ≥ 50 keV considerably and RAM-SCB simulations overestimate the observed trapped fluxes by more than an order of magnitude; the simulated with RAM-SCB precipitating fluxes are weaker and their temporal and spatial evolution agree well with POES/MEPED data.« less

RAM-SCB simulations of electron transport and plasma wave scattering during the October 2012 “double-dip” storm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jordanova, Vania Koleva; Tu, Weichao; Chen, Yue

Here, mechanisms for electron injection, trapping, and loss in the near-Earth space environment are investigated during the October 2012 “double-dip” storm using our magnetically self-consistent ring current model (RAM-SCB). Pitch angle and energy scattering are included for the first time in RAM-SCB using L and magnetic local time (MLT) dependent event-specific chorus wave models inferred from NOAA POES and Van Allen Probes EMFISIS observations. The dynamics of the source (~10s keV) and seed (~100s keV) populations of the radiation belts simulated with RAM-SCB is compared with Van Allen Probes MagEIS observations in the morning sector and with measurements from NOAA-15more » satellite in the predawn and afternoon MLT sectors. We find that although the low-energy (E < 100 keV) electron fluxes are in good agreement with observations, increasing significantly by magnetospheric convection during both SYM-H dips while decreasing during the intermediate recovery phase, the injection of high-energy electrons is underestimated by this mechanism throughout the storm. Local acceleration by chorus waves intensifies the electron fluxes at E ≥ 50 keV considerably and RAM-SCB simulations overestimate the observed trapped fluxes by more than an order of magnitude; the simulated with RAM-SCB precipitating fluxes are weaker and their temporal and spatial evolution agree well with POES/MEPED data.« less

Transient CFD simulation of a Francis turbine startup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolle, J.; Morissette, J. F.; Giroux, A. M.

2012-11-01

To assess the life expectancy of hydraulic turbines, it is essential to obtain the loading on the blades, especially during transient operations known to be the most damaging. This paper presents a simplified CFD setup to model the startup phase of a Francis turbine while it goes from rest to speed no-load condition. The fluid domain included one distributor sector coupled with one runner passage. The guide vane motion and change in the angular velocity were included in a commercial code with user functions. Comparisons between numerical results and measurements acquired on a full-size turbine showed that most of the flow physics occurring during startup were captured.

Streakline-based closed-loop control of a bluff body flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roca, Pablo; Cammilleri, Ada; Duriez, Thomas; Mathelin, Lionel; Artana, Guillermo

2014-04-01

A novel closed-loop control methodology is introduced to stabilize a cylinder wake flow based on images of streaklines. Passive scalar tracers are injected upstream the cylinder and their concentration is monitored downstream at certain image sectors of the wake. An AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs mathematical model is built from these images and a Generalized Predictive Controller algorithm is used to compute the actuation required to stabilize the wake by adding momentum tangentially to the cylinder wall through plasma actuators. The methodology is new and has real-world applications. It is demonstrated on a numerical simulation and the provided results show that good performances are achieved.

Modelling and performance assessment of an antenna-control system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burrows, C. R.

1982-03-01

An assessment is made of a surveillance-radar control system designed to provide a sector-search capability and continuous control of antenna speed without unwanted torque-reaction on the supporting mast. These objectives are attained by utilizing regenerative braking, and control is exercised through Perbury CVTs. A detailed analysis of the system is given. The models derived for the Perbury CVTs supplement the qualitative data contained in earlier papers. Some results from a computer simulation are presented. Although the paper is concerned with a particular problem, the analysis of the CVTs, and the concept of using energy transfer to control large inertial loads, are of more general interest.

Public Sector/Private Sector Interaction in Providing Information Services. Report to the NCLIS from the Public Sector/Private Sector Task Force.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Commission on Libraries and Information Science, Washington, DC.

The results of a 2-year study on the interactions between government and private sector information activities are presented in terms of principles and guidelines for federal policy to support the development and use of information resources, products, and services, and to implement the principles. Discussions address sources of conflict between…

SSERVI Analog Regolith Simulant Testbed Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minafra, Joseph; Schmidt, Gregory; Bailey, Brad; Gibbs, Kristina

2016-10-01

The Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) at NASA's Ames Research Center in California's Silicon Valley was founded in 2013 to act as a virtual institute that provides interdisciplinary research centered on the goals of its supporting directorates: NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) and the Human Exploration & Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD).Primary research goals of the Institute revolve around the integration of science and exploration to gain knowledge required for the future of human space exploration beyond low Earth orbit. SSERVI intends to leverage existing JSC1A regolith simulant resources into the creation of a regolith simulant testbed facility. The purpose of this testbed concept is to provide the planetary exploration community with a readily available capability to test hardware and conduct research in a large simulant environment.SSERVI's goals include supporting planetary researchers within NASA, other government agencies; private sector and hardware developers; competitors in focused prize design competitions; and academic sector researchers.SSERVI provides opportunities for research scientists and engineers to study the effects of regolith analog testbed research in the planetary exploration field. This capability is essential to help to understand the basic effects of continued long-term exposure to a simulated analog test environment.The current facility houses approximately eight tons of JSC-1A lunar regolith simulant in a test bin consisting of a 4 meter by 4 meter area, including dust mitigation and safety oversight.Facility hardware and environment testing scenarios could include, Lunar surface mobility, Dust exposure and mitigation, Regolith handling and excavation, Solar-like illumination, Lunar surface compaction profile, Lofted dust, Mechanical properties of lunar regolith, Surface features (i.e. grades and rocks)Numerous benefits vary from easy access to a controlled analog regolith simulant testbed, and planetary exploration activities at NASA Research Park, to academia and expanded commercial opportunities, as well as public outreach and education opportunities.

75 FR 53939 - Magnuson-Stevens Act Provisions; Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Northeast...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-02

... increase interactions with protected species. However, if additional nets result in greater efficiency... throughout the year, thus potentially reducing interactions with protected species. Sector vessels utilizing... Port Clyde Community Groundfish Sector, the GB Cod Fixed Gear Sector and the Tri-State Sector. 2...

What Happens in the Burn Zone Doesn't Stay in the Burn Zone: How Markets Distribute Disturbances Across the Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sloggy, M. R.; Plantinga, A.; Latta, G.

2017-12-01

The goal of this study is to examine how the interaction between human systems and land systems influences the extent and severity of forest disturbances. We show that human adaptation to forest disturbance has both long term and short term effects on future timber harvest patterns. We utilize a novel economic model of the forest sector which can be coupled to the Community Land Model (CLM). By simulating both pine beetle outbreaks and wildfires, we are able to model the forest sector's response to these disturbances. We then quantify and report the degree to which natural forest disturbance induces additional disturbances through timber harvest. We find that in the short run, a scarcity of forest products from the affected area increases prices which stimulate harvests in other regions not affected by the disturbance. In the long-run, we find that permanent effects that the natural disturbances have on the forest sector are translated into permanent effects on the pattern of timber harvest. The effects of forest disturbances are not localized, but instead can be distributed across the landscape by their interaction with the human system. Not accounting for this affect could mean a significant underestimation of the forest disturbance attributable to natural disturbance events. Furthermore, our novel economic model can be used with CLM to explore how this feedback may affect other aspects of the environmental system. The results from this study show the importance of accounting for how markets interact with the landscape, and how those results can be used to improve our understanding of both the natural impacts and social impacts of forest disturbance.

Coastal Processes with Improved Tidal Opening in Chilika Lagoon (east Coast of India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayaraman, Girija; Dube, Anumeha

Chilika Lagoon (19°28-19°54¢N and 85°06-85°36¢E) is the largest brackish water lagoon with estuarine character. Interest in detailed analysis of the ecology of the lagoon and the various factors affecting it is due to the opening of the new mouth on September 23, 2000 to resolve the threat to its environment from various factors - Eutrophication, weed proliferation, siltation, industrial pollution, and depletion of bioresources. The opening of the new mouth has changed the lagoon environment significantly with better socio­economic implications. There is a serious concern if the significant improvement in the biological productivity of the lagoon post-mouth opening is indeed sustainable. The present study focuses on the changes in the coastal processes as a result of the additional opening of a new mouth. Our results based on mathematical modeling and numerical simulation compare the dynamics, nutrient, and plankton distribution before and after the new mouth opening. The model could confirm the significant increase (14-66% depending on the sector) in the salinity after the new mouth opening, the maximum change being observed in the channel which connects the lagoon to the sea. The constriction in the lagoon which blocks the tidal effects entering the lagoon must be responsible for maintaining the main body of the lagoon with low salinity. The ecological model is first tested for different sectors individually before a complete model, including the entire lagoon area, is included incorporating their distinct characteristics. The model is validated with available observations of plankton and nutrients made before the opening of the new mouth. It predicts the annual distribution of plankton in all the sectors of the lagoon for post-mouth opening which is to be verified when the data will be forthcoming.

Coastal Processes with Improved Tidal Opening in Chilika Lagoon (east Coast of India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayaraman, Girija; Dube, Anumeha

Chilika Lagoon (19°28-19°54'N and 85°06-85°36'E) is the largest brackish water lagoon with estuarine character. Interest in detailed analysis of the ecology of the lagoon and the various factors affecting it is due to the opening of the new mouth on September 23, 2000 to resolve the threat to its environment from various factors — Eutrophication, weed proliferation, siltation, industrial pollution, and depletion of bioresources. The opening of the new mouth has changed the lagoon environment significantly with better socio-economic implications. There is a serious concern if the significant improvement in the biological productivity of the lagoon post-mouth opening is indeed sustainable. The present study focuses on the changes in the coastal processes as a result of the additional opening of a new mouth. Our results based on mathematical modeling and numerical simulation compare the dynamics, nutrient, and plankton distribution before and after the new mouth opening. The model could confirm the significant increase (14-66% depending on the sector) in the salinity after the new mouth opening, the maximum change being observed in the channel which connects the lagoon to the sea. The constriction in the lagoon which blocks the tidal effects entering the lagoon must be responsible for maintaining the main body of the lagoon with low salinity. The ecological model is first tested for different sectors individually before a complete model, including the entire lagoon area, is included incorporating their distinct characteristics. The model is validated with available observations of plankton and nutrients made before the opening of the new mouth. It predicts the annual distribution of plankton in all the sectors of the lagoon for post-mouth opening which is to be verified when the data will be forthcoming.

Magnetospheric structure and atmospheric Joule heating of habitable planets orbiting M-dwarf stars

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cohen, O.; Drake, J. J.; Garraffo, C.

2014-07-20

We study the magnetospheric structure and the ionospheric Joule Heating of planets orbiting M-dwarf stars in the habitable zone using a set of magnetohydrodynamic models. The stellar wind solution is used to drive a model for the planetary magnetosphere, which is coupled with a model for the planetary ionosphere. Our simulations reveal that the space environment around close-in habitable planets is extreme, and the stellar wind plasma conditions change from sub- to super-Alfvénic along the planetary orbit. As a result, the magnetospheric structure changes dramatically with a bow shock forming in the super-Alfvénic sectors, while no bow shock forms inmore » the sub-Alfvénic sectors. The planets reside most of the time in the sub-Alfvénic sectors with poor atmospheric protection. A significant amount of Joule Heating is provided at the top of the atmosphere as a result of the intense stellar wind. For the steady-state solution, the heating is about 0.1%-3% of the total incoming stellar irradiation, and it is enhanced by 50% for the time-dependent case. The significant Joule Heating obtained here should be considered in models for the atmospheres of habitable planets in terms of the thickness of the atmosphere, the top-side temperature and density, the boundary conditions for the atmospheric pressure, and particle radiation and transport. Here we assume constant ionospheric Pedersen conductance similar to that of the Earth. The conductance could be greater due to the intense EUV radiation leading to smaller heating rates. We plan to quantify the ionospheric conductance in future study.« less

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism-Dependent Communities in the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2013-12-01

Tourism is an essential element of the Laurentian Great Lakes economy as well as one of the sectors expected to be affected most by climate change, particularly through extreme weather events. While studies looking at climate change impacts on the Great Lakes tourism, specifically, are limited, the results of other studies suggest that both summer tourism activities, such as beach-going, and winter tourism activities, such as skiing and snowboarding, could feel the effects of a changing climate. The purpose of this study was to determine how existing data and models might be used to predict the potential impacts of climate change on tourism-dependent communities at the local scale. Future climate projections and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model simulations based on historical climate data were used to quantify trends in environmental metrics with a potential influence on tourism for several tourism-dependent Great Lakes communities. The results of this research show that the potential impacts of climate change vary at the local scale and could require different adaptation strategies for different communities and for different sectors of the tourism industry. For example, communities in the northern parts of the Great Lakes may find benefit in a greater diversification of their tourism industries, given that warming temperatures could be beneficial for summer tourism activities, while communities in the southern parts of the Great Lakes may have to find other ways to cope with climate conditions that are less conducive to summer tourism activities. Stakeholder input could also help inform the process of producing scientific information that is useful to policymakers when it comes to tourism sector-related decision making.

Evaluation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Strength Using the Cosmic-Ray Shadow of the Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amenomori, M.; Bi, X. J.; Chen, D.; Chen, T. L.; Chen, W. Y.; Cui, S. W.; Danzengluobu, Ding, L. K.; Feng, C. F.; Feng, Zhaoyang; Feng, Z. Y.; Gou, Q. B.; Guo, Y. Q.; He, H. H.; He, Z. T.; Hibino, K.; Hotta, N.; Hu, Haibing; Hu, H. B.; Huang, J.; Jia, H. Y.; Jiang, L.; Kajino, F.; Kasahara, K.; Katayose, Y.; Kato, C.; Kawata, K.; Kozai, M.; Labaciren, Le, G. M.; Li, A. F.; Li, H. J.; Li, W. J.; Liu, C.; Liu, J. S.; Liu, M. Y.; Lu, H.; Meng, X. R.; Miyazaki, T.; Mizutani, K.; Munakata, K.; Nakajima, T.; Nakamura, Y.; Nanjo, H.; Nishizawa, M.; Niwa, T.; Ohnishi, M.; Ohta, I.; Ozawa, S.; Qian, X. L.; Qu, X. B.; Saito, T.; Saito, T. Y.; Sakata, M.; Sako, T. K.; Shao, J.; Shibata, M.; Shiomi, A.; Shirai, T.; Sugimoto, H.; Takita, M.; Tan, Y. H.; Tateyama, N.; Torii, S.; Tsuchiya, H.; Udo, S.; Wang, H.; Wu, H. R.; Xue, L.; Yamamoto, Y.; Yamauchi, K.; Yang, Z.; Yuan, A. F.; Yuda, T.; Zhai, L. M.; Zhang, H. M.; Zhang, J. L.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Ying; Zhaxisangzhu, Zhou, X. X.; Tibet AS γ Collaboration

2018-01-01

We analyze the Sun's shadow observed with the Tibet-III air shower array and find that the shadow's center deviates northward (southward) from the optical solar disk center in the "away" ("toward") interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) sector. By comparing with numerical simulations based on the solar magnetic field model, we find that the average IMF strength in the away (toward) sector is 1.54 ±0.21stat±0.20syst (1.62 ±0.15stat±0.22syst ) times larger than the model prediction. These demonstrate that the observed Sun's shadow is a useful tool for the quantitative evaluation of the average solar magnetic field.

A Strategic Model for the Business Communication Field Training Decision in the Commercial Enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioannis, Seimenis; Damianos, Sakas P.; Nikolaos, Konstantopoulos

2009-08-01

This article examines the factors that affect the decision making of the training managers responsible in case of business communication field as they have emerged from the study of the decision that have taken place in the commercial sector in this specific Greek market. Previous researches have indicated the participation of a number of variables in this kind of decision. The aim of this article is to locate the main factors which determine, in the commercial sector the decision for the training of the employees in the field of business communication. On the basis of quality research, dynamic simulation model have been created for some of this main factors.

Evaluation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Strength Using the Cosmic-Ray Shadow of the Sun.

PubMed

Amenomori, M; Bi, X J; Chen, D; Chen, T L; Chen, W Y; Cui, S W; Danzengluobu; Ding, L K; Feng, C F; Feng, Zhaoyang; Feng, Z Y; Gou, Q B; Guo, Y Q; He, H H; He, Z T; Hibino, K; Hotta, N; Hu, Haibing; Hu, H B; Huang, J; Jia, H Y; Jiang, L; Kajino, F; Kasahara, K; Katayose, Y; Kato, C; Kawata, K; Kozai, M; Labaciren; Le, G M; Li, A F; Li, H J; Li, W J; Liu, C; Liu, J S; Liu, M Y; Lu, H; Meng, X R; Miyazaki, T; Mizutani, K; Munakata, K; Nakajima, T; Nakamura, Y; Nanjo, H; Nishizawa, M; Niwa, T; Ohnishi, M; Ohta, I; Ozawa, S; Qian, X L; Qu, X B; Saito, T; Saito, T Y; Sakata, M; Sako, T K; Shao, J; Shibata, M; Shiomi, A; Shirai, T; Sugimoto, H; Takita, M; Tan, Y H; Tateyama, N; Torii, S; Tsuchiya, H; Udo, S; Wang, H; Wu, H R; Xue, L; Yamamoto, Y; Yamauchi, K; Yang, Z; Yuan, A F; Yuda, T; Zhai, L M; Zhang, H M; Zhang, J L; Zhang, X Y; Zhang, Y; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Ying; Zhaxisangzhu; Zhou, X X

2018-01-19

We analyze the Sun's shadow observed with the Tibet-III air shower array and find that the shadow's center deviates northward (southward) from the optical solar disk center in the "away" ("toward") interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) sector. By comparing with numerical simulations based on the solar magnetic field model, we find that the average IMF strength in the away (toward) sector is 1.54±0.21_{stat}±0.20_{syst} (1.62±0.15_{stat}±0.22_{syst}) times larger than the model prediction. These demonstrate that the observed Sun's shadow is a useful tool for the quantitative evaluation of the average solar magnetic field.

Developing a stochastic traffic volume prediction model for public-private partnership projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phong, Nguyen Thanh; Likhitruangsilp, Veerasak; Onishi, Masamitsu

2017-11-01

Transportation projects require an enormous amount of capital investment resulting from their tremendous size, complexity, and risk. Due to the limitation of public finances, the private sector is invited to participate in transportation project development. The private sector can entirely or partially invest in transportation projects in the form of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) scheme, which has been an attractive option for several developing countries, including Vietnam. There are many factors affecting the success of PPP projects. The accurate prediction of traffic volume is considered one of the key success factors of PPP transportation projects. However, only few research works investigated how to predict traffic volume over a long period of time. Moreover, conventional traffic volume forecasting methods are usually based on deterministic models which predict a single value of traffic volume but do not consider risk and uncertainty. This knowledge gap makes it difficult for concessionaires to estimate PPP transportation project revenues accurately. The objective of this paper is to develop a probabilistic traffic volume prediction model. First, traffic volumes were estimated following the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process. Monte Carlo technique is then applied to simulate different scenarios. The results show that this stochastic approach can systematically analyze variations in the traffic volume and yield more reliable estimates for PPP projects.

Probing the Dark Sector with Dark Matter Bound States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Haipeng; Echenard, Bertrand; Pospelov, Maxim; Zhang, Yue

2016-04-01

A model of the dark sector where O (few GeV ) mass dark matter particles χ couple to a lighter dark force mediator V , mV≪mχ, is motivated by the recently discovered mismatch between simulated and observed shapes of galactic halos. Such models, in general, provide a challenge for direct detection efforts and collider searches. We show that for a large range of coupling constants and masses, the production and decay of the bound states of χ , such as 0-+ and 1-- states, ηD and ϒD, is an important search channel. We show that e+e-→ηD+V or ϒD+γ production at B factories for αD>0.1 is sufficiently strong to result in multiple pairs of charged leptons and pions via ηD→2 V →2 (l+l-) and ϒD→3 V →3 (l+l-) (l =e ,μ ,π ). The absence of such final states in the existing searches performed at BABAR and Belle sets new constraints on the parameter space of the model. We also show that a search for multiple bremsstrahlung of dark force mediators, e+e-→χ χ ¯+n V , resulting in missing energy and multiple leptons, will further improve the sensitivity to self-interacting dark matter.

Determining the spatial altitude of the hydraulic fractures.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khamiev, Marsel; Kosarev, Victor; Goncharova, Galina

2016-04-01

Mathematical modeling and numerical simulation are the most widely used approaches for the solving geological problems. They imply software tools which are based on Monte Carlo method. The results of this project presents shows the possibility of using PNL tool to determine fracturing location. The modeled media is a homogeneous rock (limestone) cut by a vertical borehole (d=216 mm) with metal casing 9 mm thick. The cement sheath is 35 mm thick. The borehole is filled with fresh water. The rock mass is cut by crack, filled with a mixture of doped (gadolinium oxide Gd2O3) proppant (75%) and water (25%). A pulse neutron logging (PNL) tool is used for quality control in hydraulic fracturing operations. It includes a fast neutron source (so-called "neutron generator") and a set of thermal (or epithermal) neutron-sensing devices, forming the so-called near (ND) and far (FD) detectors. To evaluate neutron properties various segments (sectors) of the rock mass, the detector must register only neutrons that come from this very formation. It's possible if detecting block includes some (6 for example) thermal neutron detectors arranged circumferentially inside the tool. As a result we get few independent well logs, each accords with define rock sector. Afterwards synthetic logs processing we can determine spatial position of the hydraulic fracture.

Probing the Dark Sector with Dark Matter Bound States.

PubMed

An, Haipeng; Echenard, Bertrand; Pospelov, Maxim; Zhang, Yue

2016-04-15

A model of the dark sector where O(few  GeV) mass dark matter particles χ couple to a lighter dark force mediator V, m_{V}≪m_{χ}, is motivated by the recently discovered mismatch between simulated and observed shapes of galactic halos. Such models, in general, provide a challenge for direct detection efforts and collider searches. We show that for a large range of coupling constants and masses, the production and decay of the bound states of χ, such as 0^{-+} and 1^{--} states, η_{D} and ϒ_{D}, is an important search channel. We show that e^{+}e^{-}→η_{D}+V or ϒ_{D}+γ production at B factories for α_{D}>0.1 is sufficiently strong to result in multiple pairs of charged leptons and pions via η_{D}→2V→2(l^{+}l^{-}) and ϒ_{D}→3V→3(l^{+}l^{-}) (l=e,μ,π). The absence of such final states in the existing searches performed at BABAR and Belle sets new constraints on the parameter space of the model. We also show that a search for multiple bremsstrahlung of dark force mediators, e^{+}e^{-}→χχ[over ¯]+nV, resulting in missing energy and multiple leptons, will further improve the sensitivity to self-interacting dark matter.

Simulating the Interactions Among Land Use, Transportation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In most transportation studies, computer models that forecast travel behavior statistics for a future year use static projections of the spatial distribution of future population and employment growth as inputs. As a result, they are unable to account for the temporally dynamic and non-linear interactions among transportation, land use, and socioeconomic systems. System dynamics (SD) provides a common framework for modeling the complex interactions among transportation and other related systems. This study uses a SD model to simulate the cascading impacts of a proposed light rail transit (LRT) system in central North Carolina, USA. The Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) SD model incorporates relationships among the land use, transportation, and economy sectors to simulate the complex feedbacks that give rise to the travel behavior changes forecasted by the region’s transportation model. This paper demonstrates the sensitivity of changes in travel behavior to the proposed LRT system and the assumptions that went into the transportation modeling, and compares those results to the impacts of an alternative fare-free transit system. SD models such as the D-O LRP SD model can complement transportation studies by providing valuable insight into the interdependent community systems that collectively contribute to travel behavior changes. Presented at the 35th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society in Cambridge, MA, July 18th, 2017

A 4D-optimization concept for scanned ion beam therapy.

PubMed

Graeff, Christian; Lüchtenborg, Robert; Eley, John Gordon; Durante, Marco; Bert, Christoph

2013-12-01

Scanned carbon beam therapy offers advantageous dose distributions and an increased biological effect. Treating moving targets is complex due to sensitivity to range changes and interplay. We propose a 4D treatment planning concept that considers motion during particle number optimization. The target was subdivided into sectors, one for each motion phase of a 4D-CT. Each sector was non-rigidly transformed to its motion phase and there targeted by a dedicated raster field (RST). Therefore, the resulting 4D-RST compensated target motion and range changes. A 4D treatment control system (TCS) was needed for synchronized delivery to the measured patient motion. 4D-optimized plans were simulated for 9 NSCLC lung cancer patients and compared to static irradiation at end-exhale. A prototype TCS was implemented and successfully tested in a film experiment. The 4D-optimized treatment plan resulted in only slightly lower dose coverage of the target compared to static optimization, with V 95% of 97.9% (median, range 96.5-99.4%) vs. 99.3% (98.5-99.8%), with negligible overdose. The conformity number was comparable at 88.2% (85.1-92.5%) vs. 85.2% (79.9-91.2%) for 4D and static, respectively. We implemented and tested a 4D treatment plan optimization method resulting in highly conformal dose delivery. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Equatorial Plasma Bubble Development and Dynamics, and Sporadic E Layer Structuring, under Storm Time Electric Fields.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdu, M. A.; Batista, I. S.; Sobral, J. H. A.; Souza, J.; Santos, A.

2016-12-01

Equatorial and low - midlatitude ionospheric plasma dynamics and related phenomenology can be severely affected by disturbance electric fields associated with magnetic storms. Penetration electric fields, of under-shielding or over-shielding types, can cause anomalous development of plasma bubbles even during their non-occurrence season, or can lead to suppression of their normal development. Depending upon the longitude sector and local time, large relative changes in the Hall and Pedersen conductivities can occur due to storm induced extra E layer ionization or modifications in F layer plasma density, as a result of which the penetration electric fields may produce, among other effects, (1) plasma bubble zonal drift velocity reversal to westward, (2) large/abnormal F layer plasma uplift, (3) sporadic E layer disruption or its formation with instabilities. Beside these effects, the equatorial ionization anomaly is known to suffer latitudinal expansion and retraction. In this paper we will discuss some outstanding response features of the low altitude ionosphere under disturbance electric field as diagnosed by Digisondes, radars and optical imagers in the South American longitude sector, a region that is strongly influenced by the South Atlantic Magnetic anomaly (SAMA). The results will be discussed in the context of satellite observations (from C/NOFS) and modeling results based on SUPIM simulation of a realistic low latitude ionosphere.

Sensitivities and Tipping Points of Power System Operations to Fluctuations Caused by Water Availability and Fuel Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, M.; Macknick, J.; Voisin, N.; Fu, T.

2017-12-01

The western US electric grid is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operation. Hydropower and water-cooled thermoelectric technologies represent 67% of generating capacity in the western region of the US. While water resources provide a significant amount of generation and reliability for the grid, these same resources can represent vulnerabilities during times of drought or low flow conditions. A lack of water affects water-dependent technologies and can result in more expensive generators needing to run in order to meet electric grid demand, resulting in higher electricity prices and a higher cost to operate the grid. A companion study assesses the impact of changes in water availability and air temperatures on power operations by directly derating hydro and thermo-electric generators. In this study we assess the sensitivities and tipping points of water availability compared with higher fuel prices in electricity sector operations. We evaluate the impacts of varying electricity prices by modifying fuel prices for coal and natural gas. We then analyze the difference in simulation results between changes in fuel prices in combination with water availability and air temperature variability. We simulate three fuel price scenarios for a 2010 baseline scenario along with 100 historical and future hydro-climate conditions. We use the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions under each combination of fuel price and water constraint. Some of the metrics evaluated are total production cost, generation type mix, emissions, transmission congestion, and reserve procurement. These metrics give insight to how strained the system is, how much flexibility it still has, and to what extent water resource availability or fuel prices drive changes in the electricity sector operations. This work will provide insights into current electricity operations as well as future cases of increased penetration of variable renewable generation technologies such as wind and solar.

The Formation of a Sunspot Penumbra Sector in Active Region NOAA 12574

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiaoling; Yan, Xiaoli; Wang, Jincheng; Kong, DeFang; Xue, Zhike; Yang, Liheng; Cao, Wenda

2018-04-01

We present a particular case of the formation of a penumbra sector around a developing sunspot in the active region NOAA 12574 on 2016 August 11 by using the high-resolution data observed by the New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory and the data acquired by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite. Before the new penumbra sector formed, the developing sunspot already had two umbrae with some penumbral filaments. The penumbra sector gradually formed at the junction of two umbrae. We found that the formation of the penumbra sector can be divided into two stages. First, during the initial stage of penumbral formation, the region where the penumbra sector formed always appeared blueshifted in a Dopplergram. The area, mean transverse magnetic field strength, and total magnetic flux of the umbra and penumbra sector all increased with time. The initial penumbral formation was associated with magnetic emergence. Second, when the penumbra sector appeared, the magnetic flux and area of the penumbra sector increased after the umbra’s magnetic flux and area decreased. These results indicate that the umbra provided magnetic flux for penumbral development after the penumbra sector appeared. We also found that the newly formed penumbra sector was associated with sunspot rotation. Based on these findings, we suggest that the penumbra sector was the result of the emerging flux that was trapped in the photosphere at the initial stage of penumbral formation, and when the rudimentary penumbra formed, the penumbra sector developed at the cost of the umbra.

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grabbe, Shon R.; Sridhar, Banavar; Mukherjee, Avijit

2009-01-01

A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

Trade brokerage property of industrial sectors on the global value chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Lizhi; Xu, Xiaoyu; Guan, Jun; Dong, Xianlei

2017-08-01

ICIO data have proven itself to be a reliable source for the analysis of economic globalization, with which sectors all over the world could be constructed into a sophisticated GVC, bringing the advantages of simultaneous study on international and domestic economies in detail as a holistic network. This paper uses OECD-WTO TiVA data to set up GIVCN-TiVA networks as the general analytical framework, depicting the transferring process of intermediate goods among sectors of various countries/regions. Secondly, the conception of brokerage roles in SNA has been adopted to redefine sector’s function while linkage exists between its upstream providers and downstream consumers, referred to as “Trade Brokerage Property”, as well as to quantify the ratio of each types of the roles. Thirdly, a set of simulations have been defined to testify the contribution that different TBPs incur to the robustness of global economic system. Finally, analyses on TBPs and NTBPs have been carried out in the levels of industry and country/region, respectively.

Phase retrieval in annulus sector domain by non-iterative methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao; Mao, Heng; Zhao, Da-zun

2008-03-01

Phase retrieval could be achieved by solving the intensity transport equation (ITE) under the paraxial approximation. For the case of uniform illumination, Neumann boundary condition is involved and it makes the solving process more complicated. The primary mirror is usually designed segmented in the telescope with large aperture, and the shape of a segmented piece is often like an annulus sector. Accordingly, It is necessary to analyze the phase retrieval in the annulus sector domain. Two non-iterative methods are considered for recovering the phase. The matrix method is based on the decomposition of the solution into a series of orthogonalized polynomials, while the frequency filtering method depends on the inverse computation process of ITE. By the simulation, it is found that both methods can eliminate the effect of Neumann boundary condition, save a lot of computation time and recover the distorted phase well. The wavefront error (WFE) RMS can be less than 0.05 wavelength, even when some noise is added.

Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols:methodology and application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lamarque, J. F.; Bond, Tami C.; Eyring, Veronika

2010-08-11

We present and discuss a new dataset of gridded emissions covering the historical period (1850-2000) in decadal increments at a horizontal resolution of 0.5° in latitude and longitude. The primary purpose of this inventory is to provide consistent gridded emissions of reactive gases and aerosols for use in chemistry model simulations needed by climate models for the Climate Model Intercomparison Program #5 (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment report. Our best estimate for the year 2000 inventory represents a combination of existing regional and global inventories to capture the best information available atmore » this point; 40 regions and 12 sectors were used to combine the various sources. The historical reconstruction of each emitted compound, for each region and sector, was then forced to agree with our 2000 estimate, ensuring continuity between past and 2000 emissions. Application of these emissions into two chemistry-climate models is used to test their ability to capture long-term changes in atmospheric ozone, carbon monoxide and aerosols distributions. The simulated long-term change in the Northern mid-latitudes surface and mid-troposphere ozone is not quite as rapid as observed. However, stations outside this latitude band show much better agreement in both present-day and long-term trend. The model simulations consistently underestimate the carbon monoxide trend, while capturing the long-term trend at the Mace Head station. The simulated sulfate and black carbon deposition over Greenland is in very good agreement with the ice-core observations spanning the simulation period. Finally, aerosol optical depth and additional aerosol diagnostics are shown to be in good agreement with previously published estimates.« less

Local and regional interactions between air quality and climate in New Delhi- A sector based analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrapu, Pallavi

Deteriorating air quality is one of the major problems faced worldwide and in particular in Asia. The world's most polluted megacities are located in Asia highlighting the urgent need for efforts to improve the air quality. New Delhi (India), one of the world's most polluted cities, was the host of the Common Wealth Games during the period of 4-14 October 2010. This high profile event provided a good opportunity to accelerate efforts to improve air quality. Computational advances now allow air quality forecast models to fully couple the meteorology with chemical constituents within a unified modeling system that allows two-way interactions. The WRF-Chem model is used to simulate air quality in New Delhi. The thesis focuses on evaluating air quality and meteorology feedbacks. Four nested domains ranging from South Asia, Northern India, NCR Delhi and Delhi city at 45km, 15km, 5km and 1.67km resolution for a period of 20 day (26th Sep--15th Oct, 2010) are used in the study. The predicted mean surface concentrations of various pollutants show similar spatial distributions with peak values in the middle of the domain reflecting the traffic and population patterns in the city. Along with these activities, construction dust and industrial emissions contribute to high levels of criteria pollutants. The study evaluates the WRF-Chem capabilities using a new emission inventory developed over Delhi at a fine resolution of 1.67km and evaluating the results with observational data from 11 monitoring sties placed at various Game venues. The contribution of emission sectors including transportation, power, industry, and domestic to pollutant concentrations at targeted regions are studied and the results show that transportation and domestic sector are the major contributors to the pollution levels in Delhi, followed by industry. Apart from these sectors, emissions outside of Delhi contribute 20-50% to surface concentrations depending on the species. This indicates that pollution control efforts should take a regional perspective. Air quality projections in Delhi for 2030 are investigated. The Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution I nteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model is used to generate a 2030 future emission scenario for Delhi using projections of air quality control measures and energy demands. Net reductions in CO concentrations by 50%, and increases of 140% and 40% in BC and NOx concentrations, respectively, are predicted. The net changes in concentration are associated with increases in transport and industry sectors. The domestic sector still has a significant contribution to air pollutant levels. The air quality levels show a profound effect under this scenario on the environment and human health. The increase in pollution from 2010 to 2030 is predicted to cause an increase in surface temperature by ˜0.65K. These increasing pollution levels also show effects on the radiative forcing. The high aerosols loading i.e. BC, PM2.5 and PM10 levels show strong influence on the short and longwave fluxes causing strong surface dimming and strong atmosphere heating due to BC. These results indicate transport and domestic sectors should be targeted for air quality and climate mitigations.

‘Going private’: a qualitative comparison of medical specialists’ job satisfaction in the public and private sectors of South Africa

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There is a highly inequitable distribution of health workers between public and private sectors in South Africa, partly due to within-country migration trends. This article elaborates what South African medical specialists find satisfying about working in the public and private sectors, at present, and how to better incentivize retention in the public sector. Methods Seventy-four qualitative interviews were conducted - among specialists and key informants - based in one public and one private urban hospital in South Africa. Interviews were coded to determine common job satisfaction factors, both financial and non-financial in nature. This served as background to a broader study on the impacts of specialist ‘dual practice’, that is, moonlighting. All qualitative specialist respondents were engaged in dual practice, generally working in both public and private sectors. Respondents were thus able to compare what was satisfying about these sectors, having experience of both. Results Results demonstrate that although there are strong financial incentives for specialists to migrate from the public to the private sector, public work can be attractive in some ways. For example, the public hospital sector generally provides more of a team environment, more academic opportunities, and greater opportunities to feel ‘needed’ and ‘relevant’. However, public specialists suffer under poor resource availability, lack of trust for the Department of Health, and poor perceived career opportunities. These non-financial issues of public sector dissatisfaction appeared just as important, if not more important, than wage disparities. Conclusions The results are useful for understanding both what brings specialists to migrate to the private sector, and what keeps some working in the public sector. Policy recommendations center around boosting public sector resources and building trust of the public sector through including health workers more in decision-making, inter alia. These interventions may be more cost-effective for retention than wage increases, and imply that it is not necessarily just a matter of putting more money into the public sector to increase retention. PMID:23281664

Convective instabilities of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves in the outer magnetosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horne, Richard B.; Thorne, Richard M.

1994-01-01

The path-integrated linear growth of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves in the outer (L is greater than or equal to 7) magnetosphere is investigated using a realistic thermal plasma distribution with an additional anisotropic energetic ring current H(+) to provide free energy for instability. The results provide a realistic simulation of the recent Active Magneto- spheric Particle Tracer Explorers (AMPTE) observations. For conditions typical of the dayside magnetosphere, high plasma beta effects reduce the group velocity and significantly increase the spatial growth rates for left-handed polarized instabilities just below the helium gyrofrequency Omega(sub He(+)), and on the guided mode above Omega(sub He(+)) but below the cross over frequency omega(sub cr). Relatively high densities, typical of the afternoon local time sector, favor these low group velocity effects for predominantly field-aligned waves. Lower densities, typical of those found in the early morning local time sector, increase the group velocity but allow strong convective instabilities at high normalized frequencies well above Omega(sub He(+)). These waves are reflected in the magnetosphere and can exist for several equatorial transits without significant damping. They are left-handed polarized only on the first equatorial crossing and become linearly polarized for the remainder of the ray path. Consequently, these waves should be observed with basically linear polarization at all frequencies and all latitudes in the early morning local time sector. Wave growth below Omega(sub He(+)) is severely limited owing to the narrow bandwidth for instability and the small resonant path lengths. In the afternoon sector, where plasma densities can exceed 10(exp 7)/cu m, intense convective amplification is possible both above and below Omega(sub He(+)). Waves below Omega(sub He(+)) are not subject to reflection when the O(+) concentration is small and therefore should be observed with left-handed polarization near the equator and essentially linear polarization at higher latitudes. Since the He(+) concentration is usually large in the afternoon sector, guided mode waves above Omega(sub He(+)) reflect to form a background distribution with basically linear polarization. We suggest that the strong left-handed polarized emissions observed by AMPTE in the afternoon sector near the equator are probably due to strongly growing low group velocity waves at frequencies just below Omega(sub He(+)), and on the guided mode above Omega(sub He(+)).

Career Education: Collaboration with the Private Sector. Information Series No. 246.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bhaerman, Robert D.

This paper reviews three aspects of career education-private sector collaboration: (1) the general and specific approaches that have been utilized during the past 10 years by the career education movement and the private sector in developing career education collaboration in the private sector; (2) the major results of these activities, focusing…

The Information Sector: Definition and Measurement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porat, Marc U.

In the last 20 years the U.S. economy had changed as a result of the increase in production, processing, and distribution of information goods and services. Three information sectors--the primary sector producing information goods and services, the private bureaucracy, and the public bureaucracy--are part of a six-sector economy. Today,…

Civil society, third sector, and healthcare: the case of social cooperatives in Italy.

PubMed

Borzaga, Carlo; Fazzi, Luca

2014-12-01

In many European countries, the third sector is considered an actor able to improve both the efficiency and the efficacy of public healthcare systems afflicted by the crisis of the welfare state. Attributed to third-sector organizations is the role of a hybrid actor tasked with the professional supply of services, not for profit but rather for mutualistic purposes, and to serve the public interest. However, empirical evidence on the capacity of the third sector to pursue objectives of social inclusion in a phase of withdrawal by the public sector is almost entirely lacking in the European countries. The article describes the results of research on the transformation of the Italian healthcare system and on the emergence of a new third sector in Italy. The results of the inquiry highlight the strategies, characteristics, and governance processes which enable third-sector organizations operating in the healthcare sector to pursue objectives of inclusion, and to serve the needs of disadvantaged groups by assuming the form of social enterprises. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

More than a Game: Learning about Climate Change through Role-Play

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paschall, Melissa; Wustenhagen, Rolf

2012-01-01

Educating management students on the connections between business and climate change is essential both to their careers and to society's ability to solve the climate challenge. To impart deep and lasting learning on this topic, the authors developed a multischool negotiation simulation that is unique in its intensiveness, cross-sector design, and…

Developing Creative Teaching Module: Business Simulation in Teaching Strategic Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abdullah, Nor Liza; Hanafiah, Mohd Hizam; Hashim, Noor Azuan

2013-01-01

Globalization and liberalization in the business environment have changed the requirements of types and qualities of human capital needed by the corporate sector. In relation to this, business graduates not only need to have theoretical understanding, but they also need to have creative thinking, communication skills and decision making skills…

A Whole New Dimension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gedemer, Linda

2012-01-01

3D projection plays a key training role in industry, especially for high-skills jobs such as airline pilots, astronauts, and a variety of positions in the military. By utilizing 3D simulators, organizations in these sectors conduct safe and effective training that would otherwise cost millions of dollars--or be impossible. Given the pressure on…

Using the NASA GRC Sectored-One-Dimensional Combustor Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paxson, Daniel E.; Mehta, Vishal R.

2014-01-01

The document is a user manual for the NASA GRC Sectored-One-Dimensional (S-1-D) Combustor Simulation. It consists of three sections. The first is a very brief outline of the mathematical and numerical background of the code along with a description of the non-dimensional variables on which it operates. The second section describes how to run the code and includes an explanation of the input file. The input file contains the parameters necessary to establish an operating point as well as the associated boundary conditions (i.e. how it is fed and terminated) of a geometrically configured combustor. It also describes the code output. The third section describes the configuration process and utilizes a specific example combustor to do so. Configuration consists of geometrically describing the combustor (section lengths, axial locations, and cross sectional areas) and locating the fuel injection point and flame region. Configuration requires modifying the source code and recompiling. As such, an executable utility is included with the code which will guide the requisite modifications and insure that they are done correctly.

Development of an integrated economic and ecological framework for ecosystem-based fisheries management in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, D.; Hoagland, P.; Dalton, T. M.; Thunberg, E. M.

2012-09-01

We present an integrated economic-ecological framework designed to help assess the implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) in New England. We develop the framework by linking a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of a coastal economy to an end-to-end (E2E) model of a marine food web for Georges Bank. We focus on the New England region using coastal county economic data for a restricted set of industry sectors and marine ecological data for three top level trophic feeding guilds: planktivores, benthivores, and piscivores. We undertake numerical simulations to model the welfare effects of changes in alternative combinations of yields from feeding guilds and alternative manifestations of biological productivity. We estimate the economic and distributional effects of these alternative simulations across a range of consumer income levels. This framework could be used to extend existing methodologies for assessing the impacts on human communities of groundfish stock rebuilding strategies, such as those expected through the implementation of the sector management program in the US northeast fishery. We discuss other possible applications of and modifications and limitations to the framework.

Current and future droughts in the Southeastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Törnros, Tobias; Menzel, Lucas

2016-04-01

The southeastern Mediterranean region (i.e., Israel, Palestine, Jordan and neighboring countries) increasingly suffers significant water stress. The semi-arid to arid conditions with low precipitation amounts, high temperatures and strong interannual climate variability recurrently trigger drought conditions. However, the complex political situation, showing a low degree of mutual cooperation, favors an unsustainable use of water resources and no long-term, cross-boundary water management plan exists. In order to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in this region, the Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied. In the first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a different number of consecutive months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also conducted. The results show that the choice of the SPEI/SPI timescale is crucial. In our study, the 6-month SPEI has the highest correlation with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of the monthly NDVI. Although not extensively addressed, the SPI performs almost just as well and could be applied if temperature data are not available. In the second step, the 6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the IPCC emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions is projected to strongly increase for all scenarios. Since agriculture is by far the most water demanding sector in the region, the impact of drought on agriculture was addressed. For this, the irrigation water demand during certain drought years was simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.

Priority economic sector and household income in Indonesia (an analysis of input output)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subanti, S.; Mulyanto; Hakim, A. R.; Mafruhah, I.; Hakim, I. M.

2018-03-01

This purpose of study aims to identify the roles of priority economic sectors on household incomes in Indonesia. Analyse in this paper used nine economic sectors, that representing result of classification from input output table. This study found that (1) priority economic sector are manufacturing sector & trade hotel and restaurant; (2) sector that have looking forward orientation included agriculture, mining & quarrying, and financial ownership & business services; and (3) electricity, gas, and water supply sector give the biggest impact to household income in Indonesia. The suggestion that policies aimed at increasing productivity and raising skills while encouraging individual participation in the formal labour market are essential.

Numerical investigation for formability of aluminum 6016 alloy under non-isothermal warm forming process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, P.; Dai, M. H.; Ying, L.; Shi, D. Y.; Zhao, K. M.; Lu, J. D.

2013-05-01

The warm forming technology of aluminum alloy has attracted attention from worldwide automotive engineering sector in recent years, with which the complex geometry parts can be realized at elevated temperature. A non-isothermal warm forming process for the heat treatable aluminum can quickly carry out its application on traditional production line by adding a furnace to heat up the aluminum alloy sheet. The 6000 aluminum alloy was investigated by numerical simulation and experiment using the Nakajima test model in this paper. A modified Fields-Backofen model was introduced into numerical simulation process to describe the thermo-mechanical flow behavior of a 6000 series aluminum alloy. The experimental data was obtained by conducting thermal-mechanical uniaxial tensile experiment in temperatures range of 25˜400°C to guarantee the numerical simulation more accurate. The numerical simulation was implemented with LS_DYNA software in terms of coupled dynamic explicit method for investigating the effect of initial forming temperature and the Binder Holder Force (BHF), which are critical process parameters in non-isothermal warm forming. The results showed that the optimal initial forming temperature range was 300°C˜350°C. By means of conducting numerical simulation in deep drawing box model, the forming window of BHF and temperature around the optimal initial forming temperature (275°, 300° and 325°) are investigated, which can provide guidance to actual experiment.

A simulation study of the impact of the public-private partnership strategy on the performance of transport infrastructure.

PubMed

Huang, Zhengfeng; Zheng, Pengjun; Ma, Yanqiang; Li, Xuan; Xu, Wenjun; Zhu, Wanlu

2016-01-01

The choice of investment strategy has a great impact on the performance of transport infrastructure. Positive projects such as the "Subway plus Property" model in Hong Kong have created sustainable financial profits for the public transport projects. Owing to a series of public debt and other constraints, public-private partnership (PPP) was introduced as an innovative investment model to address this issue and help develop transport infrastructure. Yet, few studies provide a deeper understanding of relationships between PPP strategy and the performance of such transport projects (particularly the whole transport system). This paper defines the research scope as a regional network of freeway. With a popular PPP model, travel demand prediction method, and relevant parameters as input, agents in a simulation framework can simulate the choice of PPP freeway over time. The simulation framework can be used to analyze the relationship between the PPP strategy and performance of the regional freeway network. This study uses the Freeway Network of Yangtze River Delta (FN-YRD) in China as the context. The results demonstrate the value of using simulation models of complex transportation systems to help decision makers choose the right PPP projects. Such a tool is viewed as particularly important given the ongoing transformation of functions of the Chinese transportation sector, including franchise rights of transport projects, and freeway charging mechanism.

Reconstructing the dark sector interaction with LISA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cai, Rong-Gen; Yang, Tao; Tamanini, Nicola, E-mail: cairg@itp.ac.cn, E-mail: nicola.tamanini@cea.fr, E-mail: yangtao@itp.ac.cn

We perform a forecast analysis of the ability of the LISA space-based interferometer to reconstruct the dark sector interaction using gravitational wave standard sirens at high redshift. We employ Gaussian process methods to reconstruct the distance-redshift relation in a model independent way. We adopt simulated catalogues of standard sirens given by merging massive black hole binaries visible by LISA, with an electromagnetic counterpart detectable by future telescopes. The catalogues are based on three different astrophysical scenarios for the evolution of massive black hole mergers based on the semi-analytic model of E. Barausse, Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 423 (2012) 2533.more » We first use these standard siren datasets to assess the potential of LISA in reconstructing a possible interaction between vacuum dark energy and dark matter. Then we combine the LISA cosmological data with supernovae data simulated for the Dark Energy Survey. We consider two scenarios distinguished by the time duration of the LISA mission: 5 and 10 years. Using only LISA standard siren data, the dark sector interaction can be well reconstructed from redshift z ∼1 to z ∼3 (for a 5 years mission) and z ∼1 up to z ∼5 (for a 10 years mission), though the reconstruction is inefficient at lower redshift. When combined with the DES datasets, the interaction is well reconstructed in the whole redshift region from 0 z ∼ to z ∼3 (5 yr) and z ∼0 to z ∼5 (10 yr), respectively. Massive black hole binary standard sirens can thus be used to constrain the dark sector interaction at redshift ranges not reachable by usual supernovae datasets which probe only the z ∼< 1.5 range. Gravitational wave standard sirens will not only constitute a complementary and alternative way, with respect to familiar electromagnetic observations, to probe the cosmic expansion, but will also provide new tests to constrain possible deviations from the standard ΛCDM dynamics, especially at high redshift.« less

Public Sector Employment Inequality in the United States and the Great Recession.

PubMed

Laird, Jennifer

2017-02-01

Historically in the United States, the public sector has served as an equalizing institution through the expansion of job opportunities for minority workers. This study examines whether the public sector continues to serve as an equalizing institution in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Using data from the Current Population Survey, I investigate changes in public sector employment between 2003 and 2013. My results point to a post-recession double disadvantage for black public sector workers: they are concentrated in a shrinking sector of the economy, and they are more likely than white and Hispanic public sector workers to experience job loss. These two trends are a historical break for the public sector labor market. I find that race and ethnicity gaps in public sector employment cannot be explained by differences in education, occupation, or any of the other measurable factors that are typically associated with employment. Among unemployed workers who most recently worked for the public sector, black women are the least likely to transition into private sector employment.

Variation of the NMVOC speciation in the solvent sector and the sensitivity of modelled tropospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Schneidemesser, E.; Coates, J.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Visschedijk, A. J. H.; Butler, T. M.

2016-06-01

Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) are detrimental to human health owing to the toxicity of many of the NMVOC species, as well as their role in the formation of secondary air pollutants such as tropospheric ozone (O3) and secondary organic aerosol. The speciation and amount of NMVOCs emitted into the troposphere are represented in emission inventories (EIs) for input to chemical transport models that predict air pollutant levels. Much of the information in EIs pertaining to speciation of NMVOCs is likely outdated, but before taking on the task of providing an up-to-date and highly speciated EI, a better understanding of the sensitivity of models to the change in NMVOC input would be highly beneficial. According to the EIs, the solvent sector is the most important sector for NMVOC emissions. Here, the sensitivity of modelled tropospheric O3 to NMVOC emission inventory speciation was investigated by comparing the maximum potential difference in O3 produced using a variety of reported solvent sector EI speciations in an idealized study using a box model. The sensitivity was tested using three chemical mechanisms that describe O3 production chemistry, typically employed for different types of modelling scales - point (MCM v3.2), regional (RADM2), and global (MOZART-4). In the box model simulations, a maximum difference of 15 ppbv (ca. 22% of the mean O3 mixing ratio of 69 ppbv) between the different EI speciations of the solvent sector was calculated. In comparison, for the same EI speciation, but comparing the three different mechanisms, a maximum difference of 6.7 ppbv was observed. Relationships were found between the relative contribution of NMVOC compound classes (alkanes and oxygenated species) in the speciations to the amount of Ox produced in the box model. These results indicate that modelled tropospheric O3 is sensitive to the speciation of NMVOCs as specified by emission inventories, suggesting that detailed updates to the EI speciation information would be warranted. Furthermore, modelled tropospheric O3 was also sensitive to the choice of chemical mechanism and further evaluation of both of these sensitivities in more realistic chemical-transport models is needed.

Operationalizing clean development mechanism baselines: A case study of China's electrical sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenhof, Paul A.

The global carbon market is rapidly developing as the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol draws closer and Parties to the Protocol with greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets seek alternative ways to reduce their emissions. The Protocol includes the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a tool that encourages project-based investments to be made in developing nations that will lead to an additional reduction in emissions. Due to China's economic size and rate of growth, technological characteristics, and its reliance on coal, it contains a large proportion of the global CDM potential. As China's economy modernizes, more technologies and processes are requiring electricity and demand for this energy source is accelerating rapidly. Relatively inefficient technology to generate electricity in China thereby results in the electrical sector having substantial GHG emission reduction opportunities as related to the CDM. In order to ensure the credibility of the CDM in leading to a reduction in GHG emissions, it is important that the baseline method used in the CDM approval process is scientifically sound and accessible for both others to use and for evaluation purposes. Three different methods for assessing CDM baselines and environmental additionality are investigated in the context of China's electrical sector: a method based on a historical perspective of the electrical sector (factor decomposition), a method structured upon a current perspective (operating and build margins), and a simulation of the future (dispatch analysis). Assessing future emission levels for China's electrical sector is a very challenging task given the complexity of the system, its dynamics, and that it is heavily influenced by internal and external forces, but of the different baseline methods investigated, dispatch modelling is best suited for the Chinese context as it is able to consider the important regional and temporal dimensions of its economy and its future development. For China, the most promising options for promoting sustainable development, one of the goals of the Kyoto Protocol, appear to be tied to increasing electrical end-use and generation efficiency, particularly clean coal technology for electricity generation since coal will likely continue to be a dominant primary fuel.

Exploring the influence of constitutive models and associated parameters for the orthogonal machining of Ti6Al4V

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pervaiz, S.; Anwar, S.; Kannan, S.; Almarfadi, A.

2018-04-01

Ti6Al4V is known as difficult-to-cut material due to its inherent properties such as high hot hardness, low thermal conductivity and high chemical reactivity. Though, Ti6Al4V is utilized by industrial sectors such as aeronautics, energy generation, petrochemical and bio-medical etc. For the metal cutting community, competent and cost-effective machining of Ti6Al4V is a challenging task. To optimize cost and machining performance for the machining of Ti6Al4V, finite element based cutting simulation can be a very useful tool. The aim of this paper is to develop a finite element machining model for the simulation of Ti6Al4V machining process. The study incorporates material constitutive models namely Power Law (PL) and Johnson – Cook (JC) material models to mimic the mechanical behaviour of Ti6Al4V. The study investigates cutting temperatures, cutting forces, stresses, and plastic strains with respect to different PL and JC material models with associated parameters. In addition, the numerical study also integrates different cutting tool rake angles in the machining simulations. The simulated results will be beneficial to draw conclusions for improving the overall machining performance of Ti6Al4V.

Effect of human behavior on economizer efficacy and thermal comfort in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanning, TIghe Glennon

California has set a zero net-energy conservation goal for the residential sector that is to be achieved by 2020 (California Energy Commission 2011). To reduce energy consumption in the building sector, modern buildings should fundamentally incorporate sustainable performance standards, involving renewable systems, climate-specific strategies, and consideration of a variety of users. Building occupants must operate in concert with the buildings they inhabit in order to maximize the potential of the building, its systems, and their own comfort. In climates with significant diurnal temperature swings, environmental controls designed to capitalize on this should be considered to reduce cooling-related loads. One specific strategy is the air-side economizer, which uses daily outdoor temperature swings to reduce indoor temperature swings. Traditionally a similar effect could be achieved by using thermal mass to buffer indoor temperature swings through thermal lag. Economizers reduce the amount of thermal mass typically required by naturally ventilated buildings. Fans are used to force cool nighttime air deep into the building, allowing lower mass buildings to take advantage of nighttime cooling. Economizers connect to a thermostat, and when the outdoor temperature dips below a programmed set-point the economizer draws cool air from outside, flushing out the warmed interior air. This type of system can be simulated with reasonable accuracy by energy modeling programs; however, because the system is occupant-driven (as opposed to a truly passive mass-driven system) any unpredictable occupant behavior can reduce its effectiveness and create misleading simulation results. This unpredictably has helped prevent the spread of economizers in the residential market. This study investigated to what extent human behavior affected the performance of economizer-based HVAC systems, based on physical observations, environmental data collections, and energy simulations of a residential building in Los Angeles, California. Tangible measures for alleviating problems, such as user-friendly interface design and the incorporation of human behavior into energy models are recommended based on these observations.

Simulating the Water Use of Thermoelectric Power Plants in the United States: Model Development and Verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betrie, G.; Yan, E.; Clark, C.

2016-12-01

Thermoelectric power plants use the highest amount of freshwater second to the agriculture sector. However, there is scarcity of information that characterizes the freshwater use of these plants in the United States. This could be attributed to the lack of model and data that are required to conduct analysis and gain insights. The competition for freshwater among sectors will increase in the future as the amount of freshwater gets limited due climate change and population growth. A model that makes use of less data is urgently needed to conduct analysis and identify adaptation strategies. The objectives of this study are to develop a model and simulate the water use of thermoelectric power plants in the United States. The developed model has heat-balance, climate, cooling system, and optimization modules. It computes the amount of heat rejected to the environment, estimates the quantity of heat exchanged through latent and sensible heat to the environment, and computes the amount of water required per unit generation of electricity. To verify the model, we simulated a total of 876 fossil-fired, nuclear and gas-turbine power plants with different cooling systems (CS) using 2010-2014 data obtained from Energy Information Administration. The CS includes once-through with cooling pond, once-through without cooling ponds, recirculating with induced draft and recirculating with induced draft natural draft. The results show that the model reproduced the observed water use per unit generation of electricity for the most of the power plants. It is also noticed that the model slightly overestimates the water use during the summer period when the input water temperatures are higher. We are investigating the possible reasons for the overestimation and address it in the future work. The model could be used individually or coupled to regional models to analyze various adaptation strategies and improve the water use efficiency of thermoelectric power plants.

The worldwide market for photovoltaics in the rural sector

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brainard, W. A.

1982-01-01

Attention is given to the assessment of results obtained by three NASA studies aimed at determining the global market for stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) power systems in the village power, cottage industry, and agricultural applications areas of the rural sector. An attempt was made to identify technical, social, and institutional barriers to PV system implementation, as well as the funding sources available to potential users. Country- and sector-specific results are discussed, and marketing strategies appropriate for each sector are suggested for the benefit of American PV products manufacturers.

Total electron content disturbances during minor sudden stratospheric warming, over the Brazilian region: A case study during January 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, F.; Fagundes, P. R.; Venkatesh, K.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Pillat, V. G.

2017-02-01

The effects of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) on ionosphere have been investigated by several scientists, using different observational techniques and model simulations. However, the minor SSW event during January 2012 is one of those that are less studied. Influences of several types of possible drivers—minor SSW event, changing solar flux, moderate geomagnetic storm on 22-25 January, and one of the largest solar proton events on 23-30 January—make it a challenging period to interpret. In the present study, the GPS-total electron content (TEC) measurements from a network of 72 receivers over the Brazilian region are considered. This network of 72 GPS-TEC locations lies between 5°N and 30°S (35°) latitudes and 35°W and 65°W (30°) longitudes. Further, two chains of GPS receivers are used to study the response of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in the Brazilian eastern and western sectors, as well as its day-to-day variability before and during the SSW-2012. It was noted that the TEC is depleted to the order of 30% all over the Brazilian region, from equator to beyond the EIA regions and from east to west sectors. It is also noticed that the EIA strengths at the east and west sectors were weakened during the SSW-2012. However, the Brazilian eastern sector was found to be more disturbed compared to the western sector during this SSW-2012 event.

Dynamics of Urban Informal Labor Supply in the United States

PubMed Central

Gunter, Samara R.

2016-01-01

Objective This study provides the first panel data estimates of informal work in the US and explores relationships between informal- and regular-sector participation among urban parents of young children. Methods I examine determinants of informal-sector participation in five waves of data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study using probit, pooled Tobit, and fixed effects OLS models. Results Approximately 53 percent of urban fathers and 32 percent of urban mothers with young children pursue informal work over a nine-year period. Informal work most often occurs in conjunction with regular work. Workers who work in both sectors in the same year are more likely to be non-minority race, higher education (mothers only), own credit cards, and work in skilled white- or blue-collar occupations. Workers who ever participate in only the informal sector are more likely to be younger, to have health limitations, and to have never worked in the regular sector. Informal participation spells are shorter than regular-sector participation spells and are associated with changes in regular-sector participation and occupation but not most other life events. Conclusion Consistent with past work, informal work among parents of young children is widespread across socioeconomic groups. Transitions in and out of the informal sector are strongly related to changes in regular-sector employment and occupation. The results suggest that regular-sector participation provides access to informal work opportunities. PMID:28439143

A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

2016-12-01

A comprehensive regional assessment of emission sources is a major hindrance for a complete understanding of the air quality and for designing appropriate mitigation solutions in Nepal, a landlocked country in foothills of the Himalaya. This study attempts, for the first time, to develop a fine resolution (1km × 1km) present day emission inventory of Nepal with a higher tier approach using our understanding of the currently used technologies, energy consumption used in various energy sectors and its resultant emissions. We estimate present-day emissions of aerosols (BC, OC and PM2.5), trace gases (SO2, CO, NOX and VOC) and greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O and CH4) from non-open burning sources (residential, industry, transport, commercial) and open-burning sources (agriculture and municipal solid waste burning) for the base year 2013. We used methodologies published in literatures, and both primary and secondary data to estimate energy production and consumption in each sector and its sub-sector and associated emissions. Local practices and activity rates are explicitly accounted for energy consumption and dispersed often under-documented emission sources like brick manufacturing, diesel generator sets, mining, stone crushing, solid waste burning and diesel use in farms are considered. Apart from pyrogenic source of CH4 emissions, methanogenic and enteric fermentation sources are also accounted. Region-specific and newly measured country-specific emission factors are used for emission estimates. Activity based proxies are used for spatial and temporal distribution of emissions. Preliminary results suggest that 80% of national energy consumption is in residential sector followed by industry (8%) and transport (7%). More than 90% of the residential energy is supplied by biofuel which needs immediate attention to reduce emissions. Further, the emissions would be compared with other contemporary studies, regional and global datasets and used in the model simulations to understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

Time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the inner heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkin, V. G.; Lyon, J. G.; Lario, D.; Arge, C. N.; Henney, C. J.

2016-04-01

This paper presents results from a simulation study exploring heliospheric consequences of time-dependent changes at the Sun. We selected a 2 month period in the beginning of year 2008 that was characterized by very low solar activity. The heliosphere in the equatorial region was dominated by two coronal holes whose changing structure created temporal variations distorting the classical steady state picture of the heliosphere. We used the Air Force Data Assimilate Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model to obtain daily updated photospheric magnetograms and drive the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model of the corona. This leads to a formulation of a time-dependent boundary condition for our three-dimensional (3-D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model, LFM-helio, which is the heliospheric adaptation of the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry MHD simulation code. The time-dependent coronal conditions were propagated throughout the inner heliosphere, and the simulation results were compared with the spacecraft located near 1 astronomical unit (AU) heliocentric distance: Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO-A and STEREO-B), and the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft that was in cruise phase measuring the heliospheric magnetic field between 0.35 and 0.6 AU. In addition, during the selected interval MESSENGER and ACE aligned radially allowing minimization of the effects of temporal variation at the Sun versus radial evolution of structures. Our simulations show that time-dependent simulationsreproduce the gross-scale structure of the heliosphere with higher fidelity, while on smaller spatial and faster time scales (e.g., 1 day) they provide important insights for interpretation of the data. The simulations suggest that moving boundaries of slow-fast wind transitions at 0.1 AU may result in the formation of inverted magnetic fields near pseudostreamers which is an intrinsically time-dependent process. Finally, we show that heliospheric current sheet corrugation, which may result in multiple sector boundary crossings when observed by spacecraft, is caused by solar wind velocity shears. Overall, our simulations demonstrate that time-dependent heliosphere modeling is a promising direction of research both for space weather applications and fundamental physics of the heliosphere.

FE-Analysis of Stretch-Blow Moulded Bottles Using an Integrative Process Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopmann, C.; Michaeli, W.; Rasche, S.

2011-05-01

The two-stage stretch-blow moulding process has been established for the large scale production of high quality PET containers with excellent mechanical and optical properties. The total production costs of a bottle are significantly caused by the material costs. Due to this dominant share of the bottle material, the PET industry is interested in reducing the total production costs by an optimised material efficiency. However, a reduced material inventory means decreasing wall thicknesses and therewith a reduction of the bottle properties (e.g. mechanical properties, barrier properties). Therefore, there is often a trade-off between a minimal bottle weight and adequate properties of the bottle. In order to achieve the objectives Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) techniques can assist the designer of new stretch-blow moulded containers. Hence, tools such as the process simulation and the structural analysis have become important in the blow moulding sector. The Institute of Plastics Processing (IKV) at RWTH Aachen University, Germany, has developed an integrative three-dimensional process simulation which models the complete path of a preform through a stretch-blow moulding machine. At first, the reheating of the preform is calculated by a thermal simulation. Afterwards, the inflation of the preform to a bottle is calculated by finite element analysis (FEA). The results of this step are e.g. the local wall thickness distribution and the local biaxial stretch ratios. Not only the material distribution but also the material properties that result from the deformation history of the polymer have significant influence on the bottle properties. Therefore, a correlation between the material properties and stretch ratios is considered in an integrative simulation approach developed at IKV. The results of the process simulation (wall thickness, stretch ratios) are transferred to a further simulation program and mapped on the bottles FE mesh. This approach allows a local determination of the material properties and thus a more accurate prediction of the bottle properties. The approach was applied both for a mechanical structural analysis and for a barrier analysis. First results point out that the approach can improve the FE analysis and might be a helpful tool for designing new stretch-blow moulded bottles.

Contribution of emissions to concentrations: the TAGGING 1.0 submodel based on the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy 2.52)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grewe, Volker; Tsati, Eleni; Mertens, Mariano; Frömming, Christine; Jöckel, Patrick

2017-07-01

Questions such as what is the contribution of road traffic emissions to climate change? or what is the impact of shipping emissions on local air quality? require a quantification of the contribution of specific emissions sectors to the concentration of radiatively active species and air-quality-related species, respectively. Here, we present a diagnostics package, implemented in the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy), which keeps track of the contribution of source categories (mainly emission sectors) to various concentrations. The diagnostics package is implemented as a submodel (TAGGING) of EMAC (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Hamburg (ECHAM)/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). It determines the contributions of 10 different source categories to the concentration of ozone, nitrogen oxides, peroxyacytyl nitrate, carbon monoxide, non-methane hydrocarbons, hydroxyl, and hydroperoxyl radicals ( = tagged tracers). The source categories are mainly emission sectors and some other sources for completeness. As emission sectors, road traffic, shipping, air traffic, anthropogenic non-traffic, biogenic, biomass burning, and lightning are considered. The submodel obtains information on the chemical reaction rates, online emissions, such as lightning, and wash-out rates. It then solves differential equations for the contribution of a source category to each of the seven tracers. This diagnostics package does not feed back to any other part of the model. For the first time, it takes into account chemically competing effects: for example, the competition between NOx, CO, and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) in the production and destruction of ozone. We show that the results are in-line with results from other tagging schemes and provide plausibility checks for concentrations of trace gases, such as OH and HO2, which have not previously been tagged. The budgets of the tagged tracers, i.e. the contribution from individual source categories (mainly emission sectors) to, e.g., ozone, are only marginally sensitive to changes in model resolution, though the level of detail increases. A reduction in road traffic emissions by 5 % shows that road traffic global tropospheric ozone is reduced by 4 % only, because the net ozone productivity increases. This 4 % reduction in road traffic tropospheric ozone corresponds to a reduction in total tropospheric ozone by ≈ 0.3 %, which is compensated by an increase in tropospheric ozone from other sources by 0.1 %, resulting in a reduction in total tropospheric ozone of ≈ 0.2 %. This compensating effect compares well with previous findings. The computational costs of the TAGGING submodel are low with respect to computing time, but a large number of additional tracers are required. The advantage of the tagging scheme is that in one simulation and at every time step and grid point, information is available on the contribution of different emission sectors to the ozone budget, which then can be further used in upcoming studies to calculate the respective radiative forcing simultaneously.

Sector activities and lessons learned around initial implementation of the United States national physical activity plan.

PubMed

Evenson, Kelly R; Satinsky, Sara B

2014-08-01

National plans are increasingly common but infrequently evaluated. The 2010 United States National Physical Activity Plan (NPAP) provided strategies to increase population levels of physical activity. This paper describes (i) the initial accomplishments of the NPAP sector teams, and (ii) results from a process evaluation to determine how the sectors operated, their cross-sector collaboration, challenges encountered, and positive experiences. During 2011, a quarterly reporting system was developed to capture sector-level activities. A year-end interview derived more detailed information. Interviews with 12 sector leads were recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed for common themes. The 6 sectors worked on goals from the implementation plan that focused broadly on education, promotion, intervention, policy, collaboration, and evaluation. Through year-end interviews, themes were generated around operations, goal setting, and cross-sector collaboration. Challenges to the NPAP work included lack of funding and time, the need for marketing and promotion, and organizational support. Positive experiences included collaboration, efficiency of work, enhanced community dynamic, and accomplishments toward NPAP goals. These initial results on the NPAP sector teams can be used as a baseline assessment for future monitoring. The lessons learned may be useful to other practitioners developing evaluations around state- or national-level plans.

Estimating the potential of carbon sequestration by Korean forestry sector under climate change and management scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Kim, M.; Son, Y.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

Korean forests have recovered by the national-scale reforestation program and can contribute to the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal. The forest carbon (C) sequestration is expected to change by climate change and forest management regime. In this context, estimating the changes in GHG mitigation potential of Korean forestry sector by climate and management is a timely issue. Thus, we estimated the forest C sequestration of Korea under four scenarios (2010­-2050): constant temperature with no management (CT_No), representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 with no management (RCP_No), constant temperature with thinning management (CT_Man), and RCP 8.5 with thinning management (RCP_Man). Dynamic stand growth model (KO-G-Dynamic; for biomass) and forest C model (FBDC model; for non-biomass) were used at approximately 64,000 simulation units (1km2). As model input data, the forest data (e.g., forest type and stand age) and climate data were spatially prepared from the national forest inventories and the RCP 8.5 climate data. The model simulation results showed that the mean annual C sequestrations during the period (Tg C yr-1) were 11.0, 9.9, 11.5, and 10.5, respectively, under the CT_No, RCP_No, CT_Man, and RCP_Man, respectively, at the national scale. The C sequestration decreased with the time passage due to the maturity of the forests. The climate change seemed disadvantageous to the C sequestration by the forest ecosystems (≒ -1.0 Tg C yr-1) due to the increase in organic matter decomposition. In particular, the decrease in C sequestration by the climate change was greater for the needle-leaved species, compared to the broad-leaved species. Meanwhile, the forest management enhanced forest C sequestration (≒ 0.5 Tg C yr-1). Accordingly, implementing appropriate forest management strategies for adaptation would contribute to maintaining the C sequestration by Korean forestry sector under climate change. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by Korean Ministry of Environment (2014001310008).

Vulnerability of U.S. Agriculture and Energy Sectors to Changes in Climate and Socioeconomics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Bramer, L.; Fortin, D.; Huang, M.; Hathaway, J.; Kyle, P.; Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Liu, Y.; Patel, P.; Pulsipher, T.; Rice, J.; Tesfa, T. K.; Vernon, C. R.; Zhou, Y.

2014-12-01

A prominent integrated assessment model (IAM), the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), has been coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM) of the Community Earth system model (CESM) to assess the vulnerability of the US agriculture and energy sectors to future water shortages under changing climate and socioeconomics. This study utilizes the regionalized version of GCAM for the U.S. with 50-state. GCAM-USA includes a detailed representation of water demands and tracks them at multiple spatial scales and annual scale. A spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to project the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and 1/8o spatial resolution for input to CLM, which has been coupled to a river routing model and generic water management model applicable globally at 1/2o resolution and regionally at 1/8o resolution. The coupled modeling framework demonstrated reasonable ability to simulate the historical flow regulation and water supply over the continental U.S. The coupled modeling framework has been used to investigate: 1) Which water use sector (agriculture or energy) and subbasins in the conterminous U.S. will experience water deficits in future decades; 2) What are the drivers for the deficit (i.e., water availability, water demands, or both); 3) Will climate mitigation policies alleviate or exacerbate the situation; and lastly 4) How will the frequency , severity, and spatial extent of water deficits (hot spots) evolve under a non-mitigation scenario (RCP8.5) in which conventional fossil-fueled technologies prevail versus a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) in which the carbon price causes a shift toward renewables and expansion of bioenergy productions. Results show that irrigation will face greater water deficit overall except in the northeastern U.S. Water deficit is greatest in the western U.S. except the Pacific Northwest. Human footprints on the regulated flows are most pronounced over the Rio Grande, Colorado, Great Lake, Great, and Missouri basins. Overall, total water deficit in term of both total volume and land area are projected to increase in the future under both RCPs.

CO2, energy and economy interactions: A multisectoral, dynamic, computable general equilibrium model for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Yoonyoung

While vast resources have been invested in the development of computational models for cost-benefit analysis for the "whole world" or for the largest economies (e.g. United States, Japan, Germany), the remainder have been thrown together into one model for the "rest of the world." This study presents a multi-sectoral, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Korea. This research evaluates the impacts of controlling COsb2 emissions using a multisectoral CGE model. This CGE economy-energy-environment model analyzes and quantifies the interactions between COsb2, energy and economy. This study examines interactions and influences of key environmental policy components: applied economic instruments, emission targets, and environmental tax revenue recycling methods. The most cost-effective economic instrument is the carbon tax. The economic effects discussed include impacts on main macroeconomic variables (in particular, economic growth), sectoral production, and the energy market. This study considers several aspects of various COsb2 control policies, such as the basic variables in the economy: capital stock and net foreign debt. The results indicate emissions might be stabilized in Korea at the expense of economic growth and with dramatic sectoral allocation effects. Carbon dioxide emissions stabilization could be achieved to the tune of a 600 trillion won loss over a 20 year period (1990-2010). The average annual real GDP would decrease by 2.10% over the simulation period compared to the 5.87% increase in the Business-as-Usual. This model satisfies an immediate need for a policy simulation model for Korea and provides the basic framework for similar economies. It is critical to keep the central economic question at the forefront of any discussion regarding environmental protection. How much will reform cost, and what does the economy stand to gain and lose? Without this model, the policy makers might resort to hesitation or even blind speculation. With the model, the policy makers gain the power of prediction. This model serves as a tool for constructing the most effective strategy for Korea.

A process-based agricultural model for the irrigated agriculture sector in Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammar, M. E.; Davies, E. G.

2015-12-01

Connections between land and water, irrigation, agricultural productivity and profitability, policy alternatives, and climate change and variability are complex, poorly understood, and unpredictable. Policy assessment for agriculture presents a large potential for development of broad-based simulation models that can aid assessment and quantification of policy alternatives over longer temporal scales. The Canadian irrigated agriculture sector is concentrated in Alberta, where it represents two thirds of the irrigated land-base in Canada and is the largest consumer of surface water. Despite interest in irrigation expansion, its potential in Alberta is uncertain given a constrained water supply, significant social and economic development and increasing demands for both land and water, and climate change. This paper therefore introduces a system dynamics model as a decision support tool to provide insights into irrigation expansion in Alberta, and into trade-offs and risks associated with that expansion. It is intended to be used by a wide variety of users including researchers, policy analysts and planners, and irrigation managers. A process-based cropping system approach is at the core of the model and uses a water-driven crop growth mechanism described by AquaCrop. The tool goes beyond a representation of crop phenology and cropping systems by permitting assessment and quantification of the broader, long-term consequences of agricultural policies for Alberta's irrigation sector. It also encourages collaboration and provides a degree of transparency that gives confidence in simulation results. The paper focuses on the agricultural component of the systems model, describing the process involved; soil water and nutrients balance, crop growth, and water, temperature, salinity, and nutrients stresses, and how other disciplines can be integrated to account for the effects of interactions and feedbacks in the whole system. In later stages, other components such as livestock production systems and agricultural production economics will be integrated to the agricultural model to make the systems tool. It will capture feedback loops, time delays, and the nonlinearities of the system. Moreover, the model is designed for quick reconfiguration to different regions given parametrized crop data.

Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karahan, Sinan; Windhorst, Robert D.

2009-01-01

Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. The automated system periodically updates forecasts and reassesses rerouting decisions in order to account for changing weather predictions. The main objectives are to reroute flights to avoid convective weather regions and determine the resulting complexity due to rerouting. The eventual goal is to control and reduce complexity while rerouting flights during the 20 minute - 2 hour planning period. A three-hour simulation is conducted using 4800 flights in the national airspace. The study compares several metrics against a baseline scenario using the same traffic and weather but with rerouting disabled. The results show that rerouting can have a negative impact on congestion in some sectors, as expected. The rerouting system provides accurate measurements of the resulting complexity in the congested sectors. Furthermore, although rerouting is performed only in the 20-minute - 2-hour range, it results in a 30% reduction in encounters with nowcast weather polygons (100% being the ideal for perfectly predictable and accurate weather). In the simulations, rerouting was performed for the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon, and for the en-route segment of air traffic. The implementation uses CWAM, a set of polygons that represent probabilities of pilot deviation around weather. The algorithms were implemented in a software-based air traffic simulation system. Initial results of the system's performance and effectiveness were encouraging. Simulation results showed that when flights were rerouted in the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon of air traffic, there were fewer weather encounters in the first 20 minutes than for flights that were not rerouted. Some preliminary results were also obtained that showed that rerouting will also increase complexity. More simulations will be conducted in order to report conclusive results on the effects of rerouting on complexity. Thus, the use of the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon weather avoidance teniques performed in the simulation is expected to provide benefits for short-term weather avoidance.

RAM-SCB simulations of electron transport and plasma wave scattering during the October 2012 "double-dip" storm.

PubMed

Jordanova, V K; Tu, W; Chen, Y; Morley, S K; Panaitescu, A-D; Reeves, G D; Kletzing, C A

2016-09-01

Mechanisms for electron injection, trapping, and loss in the near-Earth space environment are investigated during the October 2012 "double-dip" storm using our ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic field (RAM-SCB). Pitch angle and energy scattering are included for the first time in RAM-SCB using L and magnetic local time (MLT)-dependent event-specific chorus wave models inferred from NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) and Van Allen Probes Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science observations. The dynamics of the source (approximately tens of keV) and seed (approximately hundreds of keV) populations of the radiation belts simulated with RAM-SCB is compared with Van Allen Probes Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer observations in the morning sector and with measurements from NOAA 15 satellite in the predawn and afternoon MLT sectors. We find that although the low-energy ( E < 100 keV) electron fluxes are in good agreement with observations, increasing significantly by magnetospheric convection during both SYM-H dips while decreasing during the intermediate recovery phase, the injection of high-energy electrons is underestimated by this mechanism throughout the storm. Local acceleration by chorus waves intensifies the electron fluxes at E ≥50 keV considerably, and RAM-SCB simulations overestimate the observed trapped fluxes by more than an order of magnitude; the precipitating fluxes simulated with RAM-SCB are weaker, and their temporal and spatial evolutions agree well with POES/Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detectors data.

Critical phenomena in the general spherically symmetric Einstein-Yang-Mills system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maliborski, Maciej; Rinne, Oliver

2018-02-01

We study critical behavior in gravitational collapse of a general spherically symmetric Yang-Mills field coupled to the Einstein equations. Unlike the magnetic ansatz used in previous numerical work, the general Yang-Mills connection has two degrees of freedom in spherical symmetry. This fact changes the phenomenology of critical collapse dramatically. The magnetic sector features both type I and type II critical collapse, with universal critical solutions. In contrast, in the general system type I disappears and the critical behavior at the threshold between dispersal and black hole formation is always type II. We obtain values of the mass scaling and echoing exponents close to those observed in the magnetic sector, however we find some indications that the critical solution differs from the purely magnetic discretely self-similar attractor and exact self-similarity and universality might be lost. The additional "type III" critical phenomenon in the magnetic sector, where black holes form on both sides of the threshold but the Yang-Mills potential is in different vacuum states and there is a mass gap, also disappears in the general system. We support our dynamical numerical simulations with calculations in linear perturbation theory; for instance, we compute quasi-normal modes of the unstable attractor (the Bartnik-McKinnon soliton) in type I collapse in the magnetic sector.

The Impact of Military Training on Veterans’ Earnings in the Private Sector: Is there Complimentarity Between Military and Private Training for Veterans

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-03-01

thesis analyzed the complimentarity between military and post-military private sector training and the effect of military training on private sector wages...of data. The results of the thesis indicate that military training increases post-military private sector earnings of Veterans by 0.18 percent per...between military and post-service private sector training. When type of occupation is included in the models, the wage effect of military training fell to

FY01 Phytoremediation of Chlorinated Ethenes in Southern Sector Seepline Sediments of SRS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brigmon, R.L.

This treatability study is now in the second year of deployment for the Southern Sector Phytoremediation Project. Phytoremediation is the use of vegetation and associated media to treat contaminated soils, sediments, and groundwater. Phytoremediation is a rapidly developing technology that promises effective and safe cleanup of certain hazardous wastes. This ongoing work addresses the fate of volatile organic contaminants (VOCs) in an experiment that simulates a vegetated seepline supplied with trichloroethylene- (TCE-) and perchloroethylene- (PCE-) contaminated groundwater. The primary objective is to determine how the trees and sediments uptake groundwater TCE and PCE, biodegrade it, and/or transform it. The experimentalmore » focus of this project is the biological removal of VOCs from seepline groundwater and sediments.« less

'Going private': a qualitative comparison of medical specialists' job satisfaction in the public and private sectors of South Africa.

PubMed

Ashmore, John

2013-01-03

There is a highly inequitable distribution of health workers between public and private sectors in South Africa, partly due to within-country migration trends. This article elaborates what South African medical specialists find satisfying about working in the public and private sectors, at present, and how to better incentivize retention in the public sector. Seventy-four qualitative interviews were conducted - among specialists and key informants - based in one public and one private urban hospital in South Africa. Interviews were coded to determine common job satisfaction factors, both financial and non-financial in nature. This served as background to a broader study on the impacts of specialist 'dual practice', that is, moonlighting. All qualitative specialist respondents were engaged in dual practice, generally working in both public and private sectors. Respondents were thus able to compare what was satisfying about these sectors, having experience of both. Results demonstrate that although there are strong financial incentives for specialists to migrate from the public to the private sector, public work can be attractive in some ways. For example, the public hospital sector generally provides more of a team environment, more academic opportunities, and greater opportunities to feel 'needed' and 'relevant'. However, public specialists suffer under poor resource availability, lack of trust for the Department of Health, and poor perceived career opportunities. These non-financial issues of public sector dissatisfaction appeared just as important, if not more important, than wage disparities. The results are useful for understanding both what brings specialists to migrate to the private sector, and what keeps some working in the public sector. Policy recommendations center around boosting public sector resources and building trust of the public sector through including health workers more in decision-making, inter alia. These interventions may be more cost-effective for retention than wage increases, and imply that it is not necessarily just a matter of putting more money into the public sector to increase retention.

MODELING ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSION REDUCTIONS ON OZONE AIR QUALITY IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES: OFFSETTING INCREASES IN ENERGY USE

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this study is to examine changes in ambient ozone concentrations estimated by a photochemical air quality model in response to the NOx emission reductions imposed on the utility sector. To accomplish this task, CMAQ air quality model simulations were performe...

Forest product trade impacts of an invasive species: modeling structure and intervention trade-offs

Treesearch

Jeffrey Prestemon; Shushuai Zhu; James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Ruhong Li

2006-01-01

Asian gypsy and nun moth introductions into the United States, possibly arriving on imported Siberian coniferous logs, threaten domestic forests and product markers and could have global market consequences. We simulate, using the Global Forest Products Model (a spatial equilibrium model of the world forest sector), the consequences under current policies of a...

Ultrafast compression of graphite observed with sub-ps time resolution diffraction on LCLS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, Michael; Goncharov, A.; Crowhurst, J.; Zaug, J.; Radousky, H.; Grivickas, P.; Bastea, S.; Goldman, N.; Stavrou, E.; Belof, J.; Gleason, A.; Lee, H. J.; Nagler, R.; Holtgrewe, N.; Walter, P.; Pakaprenka, V.; Nam, I.; Granados, E.; Presher, C.; Koroglu, B.

2017-06-01

We will present ps time resolution pulsed x-ray diffraction measurements of rapidly compressed highly oriented pyrolytic graphite along its basal plane at the Materials under Extreme Conditions (MEC) sector of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). These experiments explore the possibility of rapid (<100 ps time scale) material transformations occurring under very highly anisotropic compression conditions. Under such conditions, non-equilibrium mechanisms may play a role in the transformation process. We will present experimental results and simulations which explore this possibility. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Simple universal models capture all classical spin physics.

PubMed

De las Cuevas, Gemma; Cubitt, Toby S

2016-03-11

Spin models are used in many studies of complex systems because they exhibit rich macroscopic behavior despite their microscopic simplicity. Here, we prove that all the physics of every classical spin model is reproduced in the low-energy sector of certain "universal models," with at most polynomial overhead. This holds for classical models with discrete or continuous degrees of freedom. We prove necessary and sufficient conditions for a spin model to be universal and show that one of the simplest and most widely studied spin models, the two-dimensional Ising model with fields, is universal. Our results may facilitate physical simulations of Hamiltonians with complex interactions. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

KDP crystal doped with L-arginine amino acid: growth, structure perfection, optical and strength characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pritula, I. M.; Kostenyukova, E. I.; Bezkrovnaya, O. N.; Kolybaeva, M. I.; Sofronov, D. S.; Dolzhenkova, E. F.; Kanaev, A.; Tsurikov, V.

2016-07-01

Potassium Dihydrogen Phosphate (KDP) crystal doped with L-arginine (L-arg) amino acid with 1.4 wt% concentration in the solution was grown onto a point seed by the method of temperature reduction. For the first time an attempt was made to grow large-size (7 × 6 × 8 cm3) optically transparent crystals, which allowed to analyze the effect of L-arg additive on the physical properties of the different growth sectors ({100} and {101}) of KDP. The incorporation of L-arg into both growth sectors of the crystal was confirmed by the methods of optical and IR spectroscopy and found to be caused by the ability of the amino acid to form hydrogen bonds with the face {100} and electrostatically interact with the positively charged face {101} of KDP crystal. A slight variation in the unit cell parameters was reported, the elementary cell volume of KDP:L-arg crystal increased in comparison with the one of pure KDP by 2·10-2 and 2.07·10-2 Å3 in the sectors {100} and {101}, respectively. It was found that the doping of L-arg enhanced the SHG efficiency of KDP and depended on the crystal growth sectors. The SHG efficiency of KDP:L-arg was by a factor 2.53 and 3.95 higher in comparison with those of pure KDP for {101} and {100} growth sector, respectively. The doping was found to lead to softening of both faces by ∼3-10% and ∼14-17% in the sectors {101} and {100}, respectively. Investigation of the influence of L-arg molecules on the bulk laser damage threshold of the crystals showed that the bulk laser damage threshold of the samples of KDP:L-arg crystal was higher than the one of the pure crystal in the sector {101} and lower in the sector {100}. The correlation between microhardness and laser damage threshold were discussed. The study is helpful for further searching, designing and simulation of hybrid NLO materials.

The willingness of private-sector doctors to manage public-sector HIV/AIDS patients in the eThekwini metropolitan region of KwaZulu-Natal

PubMed Central

Jinabhai, Champaklal C.; Taylor, Myra

2010-01-01

ABSTRACT Background South Africa is severely affected by the AIDS pandemic and this has resulted in an already under-resourced public sector being placed under further stress, while there remains a vibrant private sector. To address some of the resource and personnel shortages facing the public sector in South Africa, partnerships between the public and private sectors are slowly being forged. However, little is known about the willingness of private-sector doctors in the eThekwini Metropolitan (Metro) region of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa to manage public-sector HIV and AIDS patients. Objectives To gauge the willingness of private-sector doctor to manage public-sector HIV and AIDS patients and to describe factors that may influence their responses. Method A descriptive cross-sectional study was undertaken among private-sector doctors, both general practitioners (GPs) and specialists, working in the eThekwini Metro, using an anonymous, structured questionnaire to investigate their willingness to manage public-sector HIV and AIDS patients and the factors associated with their responses. Chi-square and independent t-tests were used to evaluate associations. Odds ratios were determined using a binary logistic regression model. A p value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Most of the doctors were male GPs aged 30–50 years who had been in practice for more than 10 years. Of these, 133 (77.8%) were willing to manage public-sector HIV and AIDS patients, with 105 (78.9%) reporting adequate knowledge, 99 (74.4%) adequate time, and 83 (62.4%) adequate infrastructure. Of the 38 (22.2%) that were unwilling to manage these patients, more than 80% cited a lack of time, knowledge and infrastructure to manage them. Another reason cited by five doctors (3.8%) who were unwilling, was the distance from public-sector facilities. Of the 33 specialist doctors, 14 (42.4%) indicated that they would not be willing to manage public-sector HIV and AIDS patients, compared with only 24 (17.4%) of the 138 GPs (p < 0.01). Conclusion Many private-sector doctors are willing to manage public-sector HIV and AIDS patients in the eThekwini Metro, potentially removing some of the current burden on the public health sector.

A system dynamics simulation model for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, Ghana.

PubMed

Kotir, Julius H; Smith, Carl; Brown, Greg; Marshall, Nadine; Johnstone, Ron

2016-12-15

In a rapidly changing water resources system, dynamic models based on the notion of systems thinking can serve as useful analytical tools for scientists and policy-makers to study changes in key system variables over time. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics simulation model was developed using a system dynamics modelling approach to examine the feedback processes and interaction between the population, the water resource, and the agricultural production sub-sectors of the Volta River Basin in West Africa. The objective of the model is to provide a learning tool for policy-makers to improve their understanding of the long-term dynamic behaviour of the basin, and as a decision support tool for exploring plausible policy scenarios necessary for sustainable water resource management and agricultural development. Structural and behavioural pattern tests, and statistical test were used to evaluate and validate the performance of the model. The results showed that the simulated outputs agreed well with the observed reality of the system. A sensitivity analysis also indicated that the model is reliable and robust to uncertainties in the major parameters. Results of the business as usual scenario showed that total population, agricultural, domestic, and industrial water demands will continue to increase over the simulated period. Besides business as usual, three additional policy scenarios were simulated to assess their impact on water demands, crop yield, and net-farm income. These were the development of the water infrastructure (scenario 1), cropland expansion (scenario 2) and dry conditions (scenario 3). The results showed that scenario 1 would provide the maximum benefit to people living in the basin. Overall, the model results could help inform planning and investment decisions within the basin to enhance food security, livelihoods development, socio-economic growth, and sustainable management of natural resources. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Financial Health of the Higher Education Sector: Financial Results and TRAC Outcomes 2013-14. Issues Paper 2015/07

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Higher Education Funding Council for England, 2015

2015-01-01

This report provides an overview of the financial health of the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE)-funded higher education sector in England. The analysis covers financial results for the academic year 2013-14, as submitted to HEFCE in December 2014, as well as the outcomes from the sector's Transparent Approach to Costing (TRAC)…

Improving operational anodising process performance using simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liong, Choong-Yeun; Ghazali, Syarah Syahidah

2015-10-01

The use of aluminium is very widespread, especially in transportation, electrical and electronics, architectural, automotive and engineering applications sectors. Therefore, the anodizing process is an important process for aluminium in order to make the aluminium durable, attractive and weather resistant. This research is focused on the anodizing process operations in manufacturing and supplying of aluminium extrusion. The data required for the development of the model is collected from the observations and interviews conducted in the study. To study the current system, the processes involved in the anodizing process are modeled by using Arena 14.5 simulation software. Those processes consist of five main processes, namely the degreasing process, the etching process, the desmut process, the anodizing process, the sealing process and 16 other processes. The results obtained were analyzed to identify the problems or bottlenecks that occurred and to propose improvement methods that can be implemented on the original model. Based on the comparisons that have been done between the improvement methods, the productivity could be increased by reallocating the workers and reducing loading time.

Ultra-Thin Multi-Band Polarization-Insensitive Microwave Metamaterial Absorber Based on Multiple-Order Responses Using a Single Resonator Structure

PubMed Central

Cheng, Zheng Ze; Mao, Xue Song; Gong, Rong Zhou

2017-01-01

We design an ultra-thin multi-band polarization-insensitive metamaterial absorber (MMA) using a single circular sector resonator (CSR) structure in the microwave region. Simulated results show that the proposed MMA has three distinctive absorption peaks at 3.35 GHz, 8.65 GHz, and 12.44 GHz, with absorbance of 98.8%, 99.7%, and 98.3%, respectively, which agree well with an experiment. Simulated surface current distributions of the unit-cell structure reveal that the triple-band absorption mainly originates from multiple-harmonic magnetic resonance. The proposed triple-band MMA can remain at a high absorption level for all polarization of both transverse-electric (TE) and transverse-magnetic (TM) modes under normal incidence. Moreover, by further optimizing the geometric parameters of the CSRs, four-band and five-band MMAs can also be obtained. Thus, our design will have potential application in detection, sensing, and stealth technology. PMID:29077036

Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fyfe, John C.; Derksen, Chris; Mudryk, Lawrence; Flato, Gregory M.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Swart, Neil C.; Molotch, Noah P.; Zhang, Xuebin; Wan, Hui; Arora, Vivek K.; Scinocca, John; Jiao, Yanjun

2017-04-01

Peak runoff in streams and rivers of the western United States is strongly influenced by melting of accumulated mountain snowpack. A significant decline in this resource has a direct connection to streamflow, with substantial economic and societal impacts. Observations and reanalyses indicate that between the 1980s and 2000s, there was a 10-20% loss in the annual maximum amount of water contained in the region's snowpack. Here we show that this loss is consistent with results from a large ensemble of climate simulations forced with natural and anthropogenic changes, but is inconsistent with simulations forced by natural changes alone. A further loss of up to 60% is projected within the next 30 years. Uncertainties in loss estimates depend on the size and the rate of response to continued anthropogenic forcing and the magnitude and phasing of internal decadal variability. The projected losses have serious implications for the hydropower, municipal and agricultural sectors in the region.

Heat and Mass Transfer Model in Freeze-Dried Medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfat, Sayahdin; Purqon, Acep

2017-07-01

There are big problems in agriculture sector every year. One of the major problems is abundance of agricultural product during the peak of harvest season that is not matched by an increase in demand of agricultural product by consumers, this causes a wasted agricultural products. Alternative way was food preservation by freeze dried method. This method was already using heat transfer through conduction and convection to reduce water quality in the food. The main objective of this research was to design a model heat and mass transfer in freeze-dried medium. We had two steps in this research, the first step was design of medium as the heat injection site and the second was simulate heat and mass transfer of the product. During simulation process, we use physical property of some agriculture product. The result will show how temperature and moisture distribution every second. The method of research use finite element method (FEM) and will be illustrated in three dimensional.

On the Morphology of a Growing City: A Heuristic Experiment Merging Static Economics with Dynamic Geography

PubMed Central

Delloye, Justin; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle

2015-01-01

In this paper, we aim at exploring how individual location decisions affect the shape of a growing city and, more precisely, how they may add up to a configuration that diverges from equilibrium configurations formulated ex-ante. To do so, we provide a two-sector city model merging a static equilibrium analysis with agent-based simulations. Results show that under strong agglomeration effects, urban development is monotonic and ends up with circular, monocentric long-term configurations. For low agglomeration effects however, elongated and multicentric urban configurations may emerge. The occurrence and underlying dynamics of these configurations are also discussed regarding commuting costs and the distance-decay of agglomeration economies between firms. To sum up, our paper warns urban planning policy makers against the difference that may stand between appropriate long-term perspectives, represented here by analytic equilibrium configurations, and short-term urban configurations, simulated here by a multi-agent system. PMID:26308858

Validating the Airspace Concept Evaluation System for Different Weather Days

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zelinski, Shannon; Meyn, Larry

2006-01-01

This paper extends the process for validating the Airspace Concept Evaluation System using real-world historical flight operational data. System inputs such as flight plans and airport en-route capacities, are generated and processed to create a realistic reproduction of a single day's operations within the National Airspace System. System outputs such as airport throughput, delays, and en-route sector loads are then compared to real world operational metrics and delay statistics for the reproduced day. The process is repeated for 4 historical days with high and low traffic volume and delay attributed to weather. These 4 days are simulated using default en-route capacities and variable en-route capacities used to emulate weather. The validation results show that default enroute capacity simulations are closer to real-world data for low weather days than high weather days. The use of reduced variable enroute capacities adds a large delay bias to ACES but delay trends between weather days are better represented.

Was Magnetic Storm the Only Driver of the Long-Duration Enhancements of Daytime Total Electron Content in the Asian-Australian Sector Between 7 and 12 September 2017?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Jiuhou; Huang, Fuqing; Chen, Xuetao; Zhong, Jiahao; Ren, Dexin; Wang, Wenbin; Yue, Xinan; Luan, Xiaoli; Jia, Mingjiao; Dou, Xiankang; Hu, Lianhuan; Ning, Baiqi; Owolabi, Charles; Chen, Jinsong; Li, Guozhu; Xue, Xianghui

2018-04-01

In this study, multiple data sets from Beidou geostationary orbit satellites total electron contents (TECs), ionosonde, meteor radar, magnetometer, and model simulations have been used to investigate the ionospheric responses in the Asian-Australian sector during the September 2017 geomagnetic storm. It was found that long-duration daytime TEC enhancements that lasted from 7 to 12 September 2017 were observed by the Beidou geostationary orbit satellite constellation. This is a unique event as the prominent TEC enhancements persisted during the storm recovery phase when geomagnetic activity became quiet. The Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model predicted that the TEC enhancements on 7-9 September were associated with the geomagnetic activity, but it showed significant electron density depletions on 10 and 11 September in contrast to the observed TEC enhancements. Our results suggested that the observed long-duration TEC enhancements from 7 to 12 September are mainly associated with the interplay of ionospheric dynamics and electrodynamics. Nevertheless, the root causes for the observed TEC enhancements seen in the storm recovery phase are unknown and require further observations and model studies.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of policy instruments for greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the agricultural sector.

PubMed

Bakam, Innocent; Balana, Bedru Babulo; Matthews, Robin

2012-12-15

Market-based policy instruments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are generally considered more appropriate than command and control tools. However, the omission of transaction costs from policy evaluations and decision-making processes may result in inefficiency in public resource allocation and sub-optimal policy choices and outcomes. This paper aims to assess the relative cost-effectiveness of market-based GHG mitigation policy instruments in the agricultural sector by incorporating transaction costs. Assuming that farmers' responses to mitigation policies are economically rationale, an individual-based model is developed to study the relative performances of an emission tax, a nitrogen fertilizer tax, and a carbon trading scheme using farm data from the Scottish farm account survey (FAS) and emissions and transaction cost data from literature metadata survey. Model simulations show that none of the three schemes could be considered the most cost effective in all circumstances. The cost effectiveness depends both on the tax rate and the amount of free permits allocated to farmers. However, the emissions trading scheme appears to outperform both other policies in realistic scenarios. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Web-Based Modelling Platform for Interactive Exploration of Regional Responses to Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holman, I.

2014-12-01

Climate change adaptation is a complex human-environmental problem that is framed by the uncertainty in impacts and the adaptation choices available, but is also bounded by real-world constraints such as future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities. Educating the next generation of informed decision-makers that will be able to make knowledgeable responses to global climate change impacts requires them to have access to information that is credible, accurate, easy to understand, and appropriate. However, available resources are too often produced by inaccessible models for scenario simulations chosen by researchers hindering exploration and enquiry. This paper describes the interactive exploratory web-based CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment (IA) Platform (www.climsave.eu/iap) that aims to democratise climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability modelling. The regional version of the Platform contain linked simulation models (of the urban, agriculture, forestry, water and biodiversity sectors), probabilistic climate scenarios and socio-economic scenarios, that enable users to select their inputs (climate and socioeconomic), rapidly run the models using their input variable settings and view their chosen outputs. The interface of the CLIMSAVE IA Platform is designed to facilitate a two-way iterative process of dialogue and exploration of "what if's" to enable a wide range of users to improve their understanding surrounding impacts, adaptation responses and vulnerability of natural resources and ecosystem services under uncertain futures. This paper will describe the evolution of the Platform and demonstrate how using its holistic framework (multi sector / ecosystem service; cross-sectoral, climate and socio-economic change) will help to assist learning around the challenging concepts of responding to global change.

Fast Conformal Thermal Ablation in the Prostate with Transurethral Multi-Sectored Ultrasound Devices and MR Guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinsey, Adam M.; Diederich, Chris J.; Nau, William H.; Ross, Anthony B.; Pauly, Kim Butts; Rieke, Viola; Sommer, Graham

2007-05-01

Transurethral ultrasound applicators incorporating an array of multisectored tubular transducers were evaluated in theoretical simulations and in vivo canine prostates under MR guidance as a method for fast, conformal thermal therapy of the prostate. Comprehensive simulations with a biothermal model investigated the effect on lesion creation of sector size, perfusion, treatment time, rectal cooling, prostate target dimensions, and feedback controller parameters (maximum temperature, pilot points at boundary, update times). In vivo canine prostates (n = 4) were treated with trisectored ultrasound transducers (3 mm OD) under MR temperature monitoring to contour the ablation zone (>52 C for 1-2 min) to the boundary of the prostate. Contiguous thermal lesions extended 2 cm in radius from the urethra in less than 15 min and independent sector control simultaneously allowed for conformal treatment in the angular dimension. Experiments investigated sequential translation of the transducer assembly within the catheter for tailoring heat treatments to different partitions in the prostate (base, apex) without changing the initial setup. This treatment method offered greater lesion shape control in three dimensions and slightly lengthened the overall treatment time. The MR temperature images correlated with post-treatment histology and accurately controlled the heating to the target boundary. MR-based control of transurethral ultrasound devices appeared more practical with multisectored transducers compared to rotating curvilinear and planar applicators due to less stringent requirements on spatial and temporal MR parameters. This study demonstrated the applicability of these devices in the prostate for anterior-lateral BPH treatment, and whole gland or quadrant target volumes for cancer treatment.

Simulating farmer behaviour under water markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padula, SIlvia; Erfani, Tohid; Henriques, Catarina; Maziotis, Alexandros; Garbe, Jennifer; Swinscoe, Thomas; Harou, Julien; Weatherhead, Keith; Beevers, Lindsay; Fleskens, Luuk

2015-04-01

Increasing water scarcity may lead water managers to consider alternative approaches to water allocation including water markets. One concern with markets is how will specific sectors interact with a potential water market, when will they gain or loose water and will they benefit economically - why, when and how? The behaviours of different individual abstractors or institutional actors under water markets is of interest to regulators who seek to design effective market policies which satisfy multiple stakeholder groups. In this study we consider two dozen agricultural water users in eastern England (Nar basin). Using partially synthetic but regionally representative cropping and irrigation data we simulate the buying and selling behaviour of farmers on a weekly basis over multiple years. The impact of on-farm water storage is assessed for farmers who own a reservoir. A river-basin-scale hydro-economic multi-agent model is used that represents individual abstractors and can simulate a spot market under various licensing regimes. Weekly varying economic demand curves for water are calibrated based on historical climate and water use data. The model represents the trade-off between current use value and expected gains from trade to reach weekly decisions. Early results are discussed and model limitations and possible extensions are presented.

Improved Limits On The Existence Of Dark Matter. The Final Results From The PICASSO Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamaha, Alvine Christelle

The final results of the PICASSO experiment, with 409 kg days of exposure collected from November 2012 to January 2014, have yielded new limits for Spin-Dependent and Spin-Independent Dark Matter interactions. The data collected and the various backgrounds were assiduously studied using Monte Carlo simulations and a new set of sophisticated analysis techniques including the wavelet analysis presented in this thesis. In general, a good suppression of most backgrounds was attained. The neutron background event rate was reduced to about a factor of 10 compared to the previous phase of the experiment. Electronic and acoustic noise events were thoroughly suppressed. A new class of "mystery events" were removed as well. All that remained was the irreducible alpha background. No signal consistent with a WIMP Dark Matter hypothesis was observed. Consequently, an exclusion curve was obtained with a minimum limit at 90% C.L. of sigmaSDchip = 0.0228 pb at a WIMP mass of 20 GeV/c2 in the Spin-Dependent sector. By combining results from 2012 and the current results, an improved constraint of sigmaSDchip (90% C.L.) = 0.0188 pb at 20 GeV/c2 was placed on the Dark Matter interaction with protons in the Fluorine nuclei used in the detectors. In addition, the new limits on WIMP-proton interactions in the Spin Independent sector exclude the DAMA/LIBRA results (at 90% C.L.) for low masses below 12 GeV/c2 and further constrain the published CRESST and CDMS Si discovery regions at low WIMP masses.

Educational Connoisseurship and Criticism: Evaluation of a Cooperation Model between University and the Sector on Vocational Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaysi, Feyzi; Bavli, Bunyamin; Gurol, Aysun

2017-01-01

Vocational schools which were opened to raise intermediate staff for the sector must update their functions to fulfill the intermediate staff need emerging as a result of the developments and changes in the sector through the time. Considering the needs of the sector, updating content of the courses and opening new lessons or programs will fulfill…

Public-private partnerships in China's urban water sector.

PubMed

Zhong, Lijin; Mol, Arthur P J; Fu, Tao

2008-06-01

During the past decades, the traditional state monopoly in urban water management has been debated heavily, resulting in different forms and degrees of private sector involvement across the globe. Since the 1990s, China has also started experiments with new modes of urban water service management and governance in which the private sector is involved. It is premature to conclude whether the various forms of private sector involvement will successfully overcome the major problems (capital shortage, inefficient operation, and service quality) in China's water sector. But at the same time, private sector involvement in water provisioning and waste water treatments seems to have become mainstream in transitional China.

Modeling climate change impact in hospitality sector, using building resources consumption signature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Armando; Bernardino, Mariana; Silva Santos, António; Pimpão Silva, Álvaro; Espírito Santo, Fátima

2016-04-01

Hotels are one of building types that consumes more energy and water per person and are vulnerable to climate change because in the occurrence of extreme events (heat waves, water stress) same failures could compromise the hotel services (comfort) and increase energy cost or compromise the landscape and amenities due to water use restrictions. Climate impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies require the knowledge about critical climatic variables and also the behaviour of building. To study the risk and vulnerability of buildings and hotels to climate change regarding resources consumption (energy and water), previous studies used building energy modelling simulation (BEMS) tools to study the variation in energy and water consumption. In general, the climate change impact in building is evaluated studying the energy and water demand of the building for future climate scenarios. But, hotels are complex buildings, quite different from each other and assumption done in simplified BEMS aren't calibrated and usually neglect some important hotel features leading to projected estimates that do not usually match hotel sector understanding and practice. Taking account all uncertainties, the use of building signature (statistical method) could be helpful to assess, in a more clear way, the impact of Climate Change in the hospitality sector and using a broad sample. Statistical analysis of the global energy consumption obtained from bills shows that the energy consumption may be predicted within 90% confidence interval only with the outdoor temperature. In this article a simplified methodology is presented and applied to identify the climate change impact in hospitality sector using the building energy and water signature. This methodology is applied to sixteen hotels (nine in Lisbon and seven in Algarve) with four and five stars rating. The results show that is expect an increase in water and electricity consumption (manly due to the increase in cooling) and a decrease in gas consumption (for heating). The hotels in Algarve are more vulnerable than Lisbon hotels.

Modeling of Outer Radiation Belt Electron Scattering due to Spatial and Spectral Properties of ULF Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tornquist, Mattias

The research presented in this thesis covers wave-particle interactions for relativistic (0.5-10 MeV) electrons in Earth's outer radiation belt (r = 3-7 RE, or L-shells: L = 3-7) interacting with magnetospheric Pc-5 (ULF) waves. This dissertation focuses on ideal models for short and long term electron energy and radial position scattering caused by interactions with ULF waves. We use test particle simulations to investigate these wave-particle interactions with ideal wave and magnetic dipole fields. We demonstrate that the wave-particle phase can cause various patterns in phase space trajectories, i.e. local acceleration, and that for a global electron population, for all initial conditions accounted for, has a negligible net energy scattering. Working with GSM polar coordinates, the relevant wave field components are EL, Ephi and Bz, where we find that the maximum energy scattering is 3-10 times more effective for Ephi compared to EL in a magnetic dipole field with a realistic dayside compression amplitude. We also evaluate electron interactions with two coexisting waves for a set of small frequency separations and phases, where it is confirmed that multi-resonant transport is possible for overlapping resonances in phase space when the Chirikov criterion is met (stochasticity parameter K = 1). The electron energy scattering enhances with decreasing frequency separation, i.e. increasing K, and is also dependent on the phases of the waves. The global acceleration is non-zero, can be onset in about 1 hour and last for > 4 hours. The adiabatic wave-particle interaction discussed up to this point can be regarded as short-term scattering ( tau ˜ hours ). When the physical problem extends to longer time scales (tau ˜ days ) the process ceases to be adiabatic due to the introduction of stochastic element in the system and becomes a diffusive process. We show that any mode in a broadband spectrum can contribute to the total diffusion rate for a particular drift frequency within the spectral band via dynamic phases. Each mode contributes maximally at a phase reset frequency fr = 2.63fk, where fk is the mode frequency. We experiment with electron diffusion due to interaction with wave broadband spectra in MLT sectors and find the phase reset effect being strongest when there is no azimuthal wave vector (msec = 0) within the sector. DLL rapidly coheres to the local PSD as the wave number increases and, for example, at msec = 1.00+/-0.25 the effect of phase resets is only 10-30% as strong as for msec = 0. Since phase resets depend on particle drift frequencies when MLT sectors are involved, a consequence is that DLL must adjust as a function of L-shell as well. For example, from the local PSD as the sole contributor to diffusion Schulz and Lanzerotte (1979) has shown that DLL ˜ L6 , but we prove that the function becomes DLL ˜ L5 with some variations due to fd and MLT sector width. The final part of this dissertation evaluates a pre storm commencement event on November 7, 2004, when Earth's magnetopause was struck by a high-speed solar wind with a mostly northward component of interplanetary magnetic field. We obtained a global MHD field simulated by the OpenGGC model for the interval 17:00-18:40 in universal time from NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center. Global distribution plots of the electric and magnetic field PSD reveal strong ULF waves spanning the whole dayside sector. There are distinct electric field modes at approximately 0.9, 2.3 and 3.7-6.3 mHz within the dayside sector, which we then used in test-particle simulations and the variance calculations in order to evaluate the diffusion coefficients. To ensure diffusion by sufficient stochasticity, we run the event by repeating the interval 10 times in series for a total duration of 12 hours. For the wave electric fields, the predicted diffusion coefficient due to local PSD matches the outcome from simulated electron scattering at 0.9 and 2.3 mHz. The diffusion due to the wider frequency band at 3.7-6.3 mHz does not fit the PSD profile alone, and requires phase resets in non-resonant modes within the spectrum to yield an agreement between the calculations and the simulations. Furthermore, only msec = 1 provides the correct solution. We have thus demonstrated the importance in including both the MLT sector width and wave number as additional significant factors apart from the local PSD in determining the diffusion coefficient for a realistic wave field. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Evaluation of Differentiation Strategy in Shipping Enterprises with Simulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaxevanou, Anthi Z.; Ferfeli, Maria V.; Damianos, Sakas P.

2009-08-01

The present inquiring study aims at investigating the circumstances that prevail in the European Shipping Enterprises with special reference to the Greek ones. This investigation is held in order to explore the potential implementation of strategies so as to create a unique competitive advantage [1]. The Shipping sector is composed of enterprises that are mainly activated in the following three areas: the passenger, the commercial and the naval. The main target is to create a dynamic simulation model which, with reference to the STAIR strategic model, will evaluate the strategic differential choice that some of the shipping enterprises have.

Investigating the Effect of Syrian Refugees on the Pharmaceutical Sector in Jordan.

PubMed

Daher, Amirah; Alabbadi, Ibrahim

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of Syrian refugees on the pharmaceutical sector in Jordan. Based on a standardized methodology developed by the WHO, Level II Facility (2009) structured questionnaires (including: medicine access [availability, affordability and geographical accessibility], quality, and rational use of medicines) were used to investigate the effect of Syrian refugees influx on the pharmaceutical sector in Jordan. Lists of essential medicines (N = 50) were included in the survey forms. The results showed more progress in all indicators for the public sector compared with the previous results in the 2009 survey and in comparison to the private sector. For example, access to medicines improved in the public sector while it decreased (if it did not remain the same) in the private sector. Also, average stock out duration time decreased dramatically in both public and private sectors. As indicated by the median price ratio (MPR), brand prices increased much in the public health facilities while they decreased by 23%-30% in the private sector. In northern areas where most Syrian refugees stay, a significant decrease in availability was noticed, in addition to the dramatic decrease in days of average stock out and adequate inventory record percentage of those medicines. In conclusion, despite the international help received to support health care provision and medications procurement for the refugees, more support is needed immediately.

Effect of self-consistent magnetic field on plasma sheet penetration to the inner magnetosphere under enhanced convection: RCM simulations combined with force-balance magnetic field solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gkioulidou, M.; Wang, C.; Lyons, L. R.; Wolf, R. A.

2010-12-01

Transport of plasma sheet particles into the inner magnetosphere is strongly affected by the penetration of the convection electric field, which is the result of the large-scale magnetosphere-ionosphere electromagnetic coupling. This transport, on the other hand, results in plasma heating and magnetic field stretching, which become very significant in the inner plasma sheet (inside 20 RE). We have previously run simulations with the Rice Convection Model (RCM) to investigate how the earthward penetration of convection electric field, and therefore plasma sheet population, depends on plasma sheet boundary conditions. Outer boundary conditions at r ~20 RE are a function of MLT and interplanetary conditions based on 11 years of Geotail data. In the previous simulations, Tsyganenko 96 magnetic field model (T96) was used so force balance between plasma pressure and magnetic fields was not maintained. We have now integrated the RCM with a magnetic field solver (Liu et al., 2006) to obtain the required force balance in the equatorial plane. We have run the self-consistent simulations under enhanced convection with different boundary conditions in which we kept different parameters (flux tube particle content, plasma pressure, plasma beta, or magnetic fields) at the outer boundary to be MLT-dependent but time independent. Different boundary conditions result in qualitatively similar plasma sheet profiles. The results show that magnetic field has a dawn dusk asymmetry with field lines being more stretched in the pre-midnight sector, due to relatively higher plasma pressure there. The asymmetry in the magnetic fields in turn affects the radial distance and MLT of plasma sheet penetration into the inner magnetosphere. In comparison with results using the T96, plasma transport under self-consistent magnetic field results in proton and electron plasma sheet inner edges that are located in higher latitudes, weaker pressure gradients, and more efficient shielding of the near-Earth convection electric field (since auroral conductance is also confined to higher latitudes). We are currently evaluating the simulated plasma sheet properties by comparing them with statistical results obtained from Geotail and THEMIS observations.

Advanced Traveler Information Service (ATIS) : private sector perceptions and public sector activities

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

This paper presents the results of a study by the United States Department of Transportation Volpe Center to determine the nature and extent of the data gap between the needs of private sector Advanced Traveler Information Service (ATIS) provid...

Observations and Simulations of Formation of Broad Plasma Depletions Through Merging Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Chao-Song; Retterer, J. M.; Beaujardiere, O. De La; Roddy, P. A.; Hunton, D.E.; Ballenthin, J. O.; Pfaff, Robert F.

2012-01-01

Broad plasma depletions in the equatorial ionosphere near dawn are region in which the plasma density is reduced by 1-3 orders of magnitude over thousands of kilometers in longitude. This phenomenon is observed repeatedly by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite during deep solar minimum. The plasma flow inside the depletion region can be strongly upward. The possible causal mechanism for the formation of broad plasma depletions is that the broad depletions result from merging of multiple equatorial plasma bubbles. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of the merging mechanism with new observations and simulations. We present C/NOFS observations for two cases. A series of plasma bubbles is first detected by C/NOFS over a longitudinal range of 3300-3800 km around midnight. Each of the individual bubbles has a typical width of approx 100 km in longitude, and the upward ion drift velocity inside the bubbles is 200-400 m/s. The plasma bubbles rotate with the Earth to the dawn sector and become broad plasma depletions. The observations clearly show the evolution from multiple plasma bubbles to broad depletions. Large upward plasma flow occurs inside the depletion region over 3800 km in longitude and exists for approx 5 h. We also present the numerical simulations of bubble merging with the physics-based low-latitude ionospheric model. It is found that two separate plasma bubbles join together and form a single, wider bubble. The simulations show that the merging process of plasma bubbles can indeed occur in incompressible ionospheric plasma. The simulation results support the merging mechanism for the formation of broad plasma depletions.

Unravelling the quality of HIV counselling and testing services in the private and public sectors in Zambia

PubMed Central

Ron Levey, Ilana; Wang, Wenjuan

2014-01-01

Background Despite the substantial investment for providing HIV counselling and testing (VCT) services in Zambia, there has been little effort to systematically evaluate the quality of VCT services provided by various types of health providers. This study, conducted in 2009, examines VCT in the public and private sectors including private for-profit and NGO/faith-based sectors in Copperbelt and Luapula. Methods The study used five primary data collection methods to gauge quality of VCT services: closed-ended client interviews with clients exiting VCT sites; open-ended client interviews; interviews with facility managers; review of service statistics; and an observation of the physical environment for VCT by site. Over 400 clients and 87 facility managers were interviewed from almost 90 facilities. Sites were randomly selected and results are generalizable at the provincial level. Results The study shows concerning levels of underperformance in VCT services across the sectors. It reveals serious underperformance in counselling about key risk-reduction methods. Less than one-third of clients received counselling on reducing number of sexual partners and only approximately 5% of clients received counselling about disclosing test results to partners. In terms of client profiles, the NGO sector attracts the most educated clients and less educated Zambians seek VCT services at very low rates (7%). The private for-profit performs equally or sometimes better than other sectors even though this sector is not adequately integrated into the Zambian national response to HIV. Conclusion The private for-profit sector provides VCT services on par in quality with the other sectors. Most clients did not receive counselling on partner reduction or disclosure of HIV test results to partners. In a generalized HIV epidemic where multiple concurrent sexual partners are a significant problem for transmitting the disease, risk-reduction methods and discussion should be a main focus of pre-test and post-test counselling. PMID:25012796

A Description of Local Time Asymmetries in the Kronian Current Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nickerson, J. S.; Hansen, K. C.; Gombosi, T. I.

2012-12-01

Cassini observations imply that Saturn's magnetospheric current sheet is displaced northward above the rotational equator [C.S. Arridge et al., Warping of Saturn's magnetospheric and magnetotail current sheets, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, August 2008]. Arridge et al. show that this hinging of the current sheet above the equator occurs over the noon, midnight, and dawn local time sectors. They present an azimuthally independent model to describe this paraboloid-like geometry. We have used our global MHD model, BATS-R-US/SWMF, to study Saturn's magnetospheric current sheet under various solar wind dynamic pressure and solar zenith angle conditions. We show that under reasonable conditions the current sheet does take on the basic shape of the Arridge model in the noon, midnight, and dawn sectors. However, the hinging distance parameter used in the Arridge model is not a constant and does in fact vary in Saturn local time. We recommend that the Arridge model should be adjusted to account for this azimuthal dependence. Arridge et al. does not discuss the shape of the current sheet in the dusk sector due to an absence of data but does presume that the current sheet will assume the same geometry in this region. On the contrary, our model shows that this is not the case. On the dusk side the current sheet hinges (aggressively) southward and cannot be accounted for by the Arridge model. We will present results from our simulations showing the deviation from axisymmetry and the general behavior of the current sheet under different conditions.

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seel, Joachim; Mills, Andrew D.; Wiser, Ryan H.

Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels will still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE future. We qualitatively describe how various decisions may change with higher shares of VRE and outline an analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating themore » impacts of VRE on long-lasting decisions. We then present results from detailed electricity market simulations with capacity expansion and unit commitment models for multiple regions of the U.S. for low and high VRE futures. We find a general decrease in average annual hourly wholesale energy prices with more VRE penetration, increased price volatility and frequency of very low-priced hours, and changing diurnal price patterns. Ancillary service prices rise substantially and peak net-load hours with high capacity value are shifted increasingly into the evening, particularly for high solar futures. While in this report we only highlight qualitatively the possible impact of these altered price patterns on other demand- and supply-side electric sector decisions, the core set of electricity market prices derived here provides a foundation for later planned quantitative evaluations of these decisions in low and high VRE futures.« less

Evaluation of NOx Emissions and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, B. H.; Simon, H. A.; Timin, B.; Dolwick, P. D.; Owen, R. C.; Eyth, A.; Foley, K.; Toro, C.; Baker, K. R.

2017-12-01

Studies focusing on ambient measurements of NOy have concluded that NOx emissions are overestimated and some have attributed the error to the onroad mobile sector. We investigate this conclusion to identify the cause of observed bias. First, we compare DISCOVER-AQ Baltimore ambient measurements to fine-scale modeling with NOy tagged by sector. Sector-based relationships with bias are present, but these are sensitive to simulated vertical mixing. This is evident both in sensitivity to mixing parameterization and the seasonal patterns of bias. We also evaluate observation-based indicators, like CO:NOy ratios, that are commonly used to diagnose emissions inventories. Second, we examine the sensitivity of predicted NOx and NOy to temporal allocation of emissions. We investigate alternative temporal allocations for EGUs without CEMS, on-road mobile, and several non-road categories. These results show some location-specific sensitivity and will lead to some improved temporal allocations. Third, near-road studies have inherently fewer confounding variables, and have been examined for more direct evaluation of emissions and dispersion models. From 2008-2011, the EPA and FHWA conducted near-road studies in Las Vegas and Detroit. These measurements are used to more directly evaluate the emissions and dispersion using site-specific traffic data. In addition, the site-specific emissions are being compared to the emissions used in larger-scale photochemical modeling to identify key discrepancies. These efforts are part of a larger coordinated effort by EPA scientist to ensure the highest quality in emissions and model processes. We look forward to sharing the state of these analyses and expected updates.

Validation of non-stationary precipitation series for site-specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, Donal; Chen, Jie; Zhang, Xunchang John

2016-02-01

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

Trajectory Assessment and Modification Tools for Next Generation Air Traffic Management Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brasil, Connie; Lee, Paul; Mainini, Matthew; Lee, Homola; Lee, Hwasoo; Prevot, Thomas; Smith, Nancy

2011-01-01

This paper reviews three Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) based high fidelity air traffic control human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations, with a focus on the expected requirement of enhanced automated trajectory assessment and modification tools to support future air traffic flow management (ATFM) planning positions. The simulations were conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Centers Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) in 2009 and 2010. The test airspace for all three simulations assumed the mid-term NextGenEn-Route high altitude environment utilizing high altitude sectors from the Kansas City and Memphis Air Route Traffic Control Centers. Trajectory assessment, modification and coordination decision support tools were developed at the AOL in order to perform future ATFM tasks. Overall tool usage results and user acceptability ratings were collected across three areas of NextGen operatoins to evaluate the tools. In addition to the usefulness and usability feedback, feasibility issues, benefits, and future requirements were also addressed. Overall, the tool sets were rated very useful and usable, and many elements of the tools received high scores and were used frequently and successfully. Tool utilization results in all three HITLs showed both user and system benefits including better airspace throughput, reduced controller workload, and highly effective communication protocols in both full Data Comm and mixed-equipage environments.

Sector-wise midpoint characterization factors for impact assessment of regional consumptive and degradative water use.

PubMed

Lin, Chia-Chun; Lin, Jia-Yu; Lee, Mengshan; Chiueh, Pei-Te

2017-12-31

Water availability, resulting from either a lack of water or poor water quality is a key factor contributing to regional water stress. This study proposes a set of sector-wise characterization factors (CFs), namely consumptive and degradative water stresses, to assess the impact of water withdrawals with a life cycle assessment approach. These CFs consider water availability, water quality, and competition for water between domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors and ecosystem at the watershed level. CFs were applied to a case study of regional water management of industrial water withdrawals in Taiwan to show that both regional or seasonal decrease in water availability contributes to a high consumptive water stress, whereas water scarcity due to degraded water quality not meeting sector standards has little influence on increased degradative water stress. Degradative water stress was observed more in the agricultural sector than in the industrial sector, which implies that the agriculture sector may have water quality concerns. Reducing water intensity and alleviating regional scale water stresses of watersheds are suggested as approaches to decrease the impact of both consumptive and degradative water use. The results from this study may enable a more detailed sector-wise analysis of water stress and influence water resource management policies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Further results on the macroeconomic effects of AIDS: the dualistic, labor-surplus economy.

PubMed

Cuddington, J T

1993-09-01

Analyses by Cuddington in 1993 and forthcoming work from Cuddington and Hancock model the macroeconomic effects of the AIDS epidemic using a modified Solow growth model. This single-sector framework rests upon the assumption that labor and capital are always efficiently allocated throughout the economy with neither market failures nor policy-induced distortions resulting in resource misallocation. Economies in low-income developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, however, are not operating at capacity. Impact models based upon the potential growth path of economies will therefore significantly overstate the effect of an AIDS epidemic. The author thus incorporates the presence of underemployment and dual labor markets to redress the limitations of these earlier impact models. The dual-economy simulations of the economic impact of AIDS using Tanzanian data suggest that the macroeconomic consequences of the epidemic are of the same order of magnitude as those obtained using a single-sector, full-employment model: gross domestic product (GDP) is 15-25% smaller by 2010 than it would have been without AIDS, and per capita GDP is 0-10% smaller. Output lost from AIDS in the dual-economy framework is approximately the same as the output gain achievable through policies designed to increase labor market flexibility. Findings suggest that serious economic reform in economies fraught with AIDS may lessen the negative economic effects of the epidemic.

A methodology for computing uncertainty bounds of multivariable systems based on sector stability theory concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waszak, Martin R.

1992-01-01

The application of a sector-based stability theory approach to the formulation of useful uncertainty descriptions for linear, time-invariant, multivariable systems is explored. A review of basic sector properties and sector-based approach are presented first. The sector-based approach is then applied to several general forms of parameter uncertainty to investigate its advantages and limitations. The results indicate that the sector uncertainty bound can be used effectively to evaluate the impact of parameter uncertainties on the frequency response of the design model. Inherent conservatism is a potential limitation of the sector-based approach, especially for highly dependent uncertain parameters. In addition, the representation of the system dynamics can affect the amount of conservatism reflected in the sector bound. Careful application of the model can help to reduce this conservatism, however, and the solution approach has some degrees of freedom that may be further exploited to reduce the conservatism.

Expansion of environmental impact assessment for eco-efficiency evaluation of China's economic sectors: An economic input-output based frontier approach.

PubMed

Xing, Zhencheng; Wang, Jigan; Zhang, Jie

2018-09-01

Due to the increasing environmental burdens caused by dramatic economic expansion, eco-efficiency indicating how efficient the economic activity is with respect to its environmental impacts has become a topic of considerable interest in China. In this context, Economic Input-output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) are combined to assess the environmental impacts and eco-efficiency of China's 26 economic sectors. The EIO-LCA results indicate that Electricity Production and Supply sector is the largest net exporter in energy usage, CO 2 emission and exhaust emission categories, while Construction sector is the largest net importer for five impact categories except for water withdrawal. Moreover, Construction sector is found to be the destination of the largest sector-to-sector environmental impact flows for the five impact categories and make the most contributions to the total environmental impacts. Another key finding is that Agriculture sector is both the largest net exporter and the greatest contributor for water withdrawal category. DEA results indicate that seven sectors are eco-efficient while over 70% of China's economic sectors are inefficient and require significant improvements. The average target improvements range between 23.30% and 35.06% depending on the impact category. Further sensitivity analysis reveals that the average sensitivity ratios vary from 7.7% to 15.7% among the six impact categories, which are found to be negatively correlated with their improvement potentials. Finally, several policy recommendations are made to mitigate environmental impacts of China's economic sectors and improve their eco-efficiency levels. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Post-Ike economic resilience along the Texas coast.

PubMed

Lu, Ruoxi; Dudensing, Rebekka M

2015-07-01

The economic devastation resulting from recent natural disasters has spawned intense interest in programmes that promote regional resilience. The economic impacts of Hurricane Ike (September 2008) endured long beyond the storm's landfall, compounded by a national recession. This study analyses the pattern of post-Ike industrial growth in eight coastal counties of Texas, United States, and identifies sources of resilience and potential drivers of recovery. The results indicate that post-disaster growth patterns differ from established growth patterns. Levels of resilience vary across industrial sectors, and service sectors tend to lead a recovery. The resilience of the hotel and restaurant sector, for instance, suggests that the presence of relief workers might immunise certain sectors against a post-disaster economic downturn. Besides the sectors that are generally resilient, each county has its own distinct sectors that, depending on the extent of the damage suffered, tend to perform strongly after a disaster, owing to the characteristics of the respective county's economy. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

[Comparison Analysis of Economic and Engineering Control of Industrial VOCs].

PubMed

Wang, Yu-fei; Liu, Chang-xin; Cheng, Jie; Hao, Zheng-ping; Wang, Zheng

2015-04-01

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) pollutant has become China's major air pollutant in key urban areas like sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. It is mainly produced from industry sectors, and engineering control is one of the most important reduction measures. During the 12th Five-Year Plan, China decides to invest 40 billion RMB to build pollution control projects in key industry sectors with annual emission reduction of 605 000 t x a(-1). It shows that China attaches a great importance to emission reduction by engineering projects and highlights the awareness of engineering reduction technologies. In this paper, a macroeconomic model, namely computable general equilibrium model, (CGE model) was employed to simulate engineering control and economic control (imposing environmental tax). We aim to compare the pros and cons of the two reduction policies. Considering the economic loss of the whole country, the environmental tax has more impacts on the economy system than engineering reduction measures. We suggest that the central government provides 7 500 RMB x t(-1) as subsidy for enterprises in industry sectors to encourage engineering reduction.

The Formation of Magnetic Depletions and Flux Annihilation Due to Reconnection in the Heliosheath

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drake, J. F.; Swisdak, M.; Opher, M.

The misalignment of the solar rotation axis and the magnetic axis of the Sun produces a periodic reversal of the Parker spiral magnetic field and the sectored solar wind. The compression of the sectors is expected to lead to reconnection in the heliosheath (HS). We present particle-in-cell simulations of the sectored HS that reflect the plasma environment along the Voyager 1 and 2 trajectories, specifically including unequal positive and negative azimuthal magnetic flux as seen in the Voyager data. Reconnection proceeds on individual current sheets until islands on adjacent current layers merge. At late time, bands of the dominant fluxmore » survive, separated by bands of deep magnetic field depletion. The ambient plasma pressure supports the strong magnetic pressure variation so that pressure is anticorrelated with magnetic field strength. There is little variation in the magnetic field direction across the boundaries of the magnetic depressions. At irregular intervals within the magnetic depressions are long-lived pairs of magnetic islands where the magnetic field direction reverses so that spacecraft data would reveal sharp magnetic field depressions with only occasional crossings with jumps in magnetic field direction. This is typical of the magnetic field data from the Voyager spacecraft. Voyager 2 data reveal that fluctuations in the density and magnetic field strength are anticorrelated in the sector zone, as expected from reconnection, but not in unipolar regions. The consequence of the annihilation of subdominant flux is a sharp reduction in the number of sectors and a loss in magnetic flux, as documented from the Voyager 1 magnetic field and flow data.« less

Contribution of Increasing Glacial Freshwater Fluxes to Observed Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Sommer, J.; Merino, N.; Durand, G.; Jourdain, N.; Goosse, H.; Mathiot, P.; Gurvan, M.

2016-02-01

Southern Ocean sea-ice extent has experienced an overall positive trend over recent decades. While the amplitude of this trend is open to debate, the geographical pattern of regional changes has been clearly identified by observations. Mechanisms driving changes in the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) are not fully understood and climate models fail to simulate these trends. Changes in different atmospheric features such as SAM or ENSO seem to explain the observed trend of Antartic sea ice, but only partly, since they can not account for the actual amplitude of the observed signal. The increasing injection of freshwater due to the accelerating ice discharge from Antarctica Ice Sheet (AIS) during the last two decades has been proposed as another candidate to contribute to SIE trend. However, the quantity and the distribution of the extra freshwater injection were not properly constrained. Recent glaciological estimations may improve the way the glacial freshwater is injected in the model. Here, we study the role of the glacial freshwater into the observed SIE trend, using the state-of-the-art Antarctic mass loss estimations. Ocean/sea-ice model simulations have been carried out with two different Antarctic freshwater scenarios corresponding to 20-years of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. The combination of an improved iceberg model with the most recent glaciological estimations has been applied to account for the most realistic possible Antarctic freshwater evolution scenarios. Results suggest that Antarctica has contributed to almost a 30% of the observed trend in regions of the South Pacific and South East Indian sectors, but has little impact in the South Atlantic sector. We conclude that the observed SIE trend over the last decades is due to a combination of both an atmospheric forcing and the extra freshwater injection. Our results advocates that the evolution of glacial freshwater needs to be correctly represented in climate models.

Development of energy consumption and energy efficiency potential in the Brazilian industrial sector according to the Integrated Energy Planning Model (IEPM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tolmasquim, M.T.; Szklo, A.S.; Cohen, C.

This paper presents the development of energy consumption in the Brazilian industrial sector and energy efficiency potential based on the analysis undertaken through a model developed in the Energy Planning Program at COPPE/UFRJ, known as the Integrated Energy Planning Model (IEPM). The study starts by presenting the IEPM, which is a technical and economic parameter-based model designed to forecast energy supplies and consumption for all economic sectors in Brazil, within three scenarios. Outlines of all three scenarios are presented, as they were constructed according to certain specific assumptions. The industrial sector was broken down into eleven sub-sectors: food and beverages,more » ceramics, cement, iron and steel, mining and pelletizing, ferroalloys, non-ferrous metals and others (metallurgy), chemicals, pulp and paper, textiles and other industries (MME, 1998). All these sub-sectors will also be presented as well as the results of the scenario forecasts. Results deriving from these forecasts come from very specific studies that analyze all process steps in each sub-sector in order to propose energy replacements, efficiency improvements of structural production alterations that result in major potential energy consumption reductions. Last but not least, this paper gives the development forecasts deriving from the three scenarios over ten years, with their contributions to energy efficiency in the Brazilian industrial sector, showing that the authors can reduce energy consumption in the Brazilian industrial sector by: substituting less efficient processes by more efficient ones, through the conversion of final energy into usable energy, basically, in the cement and aluminum industries; replacing equipment and energy sources; modifying product mix of several industries (pulp and paper), assigning top priority to producing goods with higher added value that are less energy intensive, and, finally, reducing the share held by some energy intensive sectors in the industrial output.« less

Healthcare costs and obesity prevention: drug costs and other sector-specific consequences.

PubMed

Rappange, David R; Brouwer, Werner B F; Hoogenveen, Rudolf T; Van Baal, Pieter H M

2009-01-01

Obesity is a major contributor to the overall burden of disease (also reducing life expectancy) and associated with high medical costs due to obesity-related diseases. However, obesity prevention, while reducing obesity-related morbidity and mortality, may not result in overall healthcare cost savings because of additional costs in life-years gained. Sector-specific financial consequences of preventing obesity are less well documented, for pharmaceutical spending as well as for other healthcare segments. To estimate the effect of obesity prevention on annual and lifetime drug spending as well as other sector-specific expenditures, i.e. the hospital segment, long-term care segment and primary healthcare. The RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) Chronic Disease Model and Dutch cost of illness data were used to simulate, using a Markov-type model approach, the lifetime expenditures in the pharmaceutical segment and three other healthcare segments for a hypothetical cohort of obese (body mass index [BMI] >or=30 kg/m2), non-smoking people with a starting age of 20 years. In order to assess the sector-specific consequences of obesity prevention, these costs were compared with the costs of two other similar cohorts, i.e. a 'healthy-living' cohort (non-smoking and a BMI >or=18.5 and <25 kg/m2) and a smoking cohort. To assert whether preventing obesity results in cost savings in any of the segments, net present values were estimated using different discount rates. Sensitivity analyses were conducted across key input values and using a broader definition of healthcare. Lifetime drug expenditures are higher for obese people than for 'healthy-living' people, despite shorter life expectancy for the obese. Obesity prevention results in savings on drugs for obesity-related diseases until the age of 74 years, which outweigh additional drug costs for diseases unrelated to obesity in life-years gained. Furthermore, obesity prevention will increase long-term care expenditures substantially, while savings in the other healthcare segments are small or non-existent. Discounting costs more heavily or using lower relative mortality risks for obesity would make obesity prevention a relatively more attractive strategy in terms of healthcare costs, especially for the long-term care segment. Application of a broader definition of healthcare costs has the opposite effect. Obesity prevention will likely result in savings in the pharmaceutical segment, but substantial additional costs for long-term care. These are important considerations for policy makers concerned with the future sustainability of the healthcare system.

Ecological and economic impacts of forest policies: interactions across forestry and agriculture.

Treesearch

R.J. Alig; D.M. Adams; B.A. McCarl

1998-01-01

A linked model of the US forest and agriculture sectors was used to examine the economic and ecological impacts of two forest policies: a minimum harvest age limitation and a reduced public harvest policy. Simulated private responses to both policies indicate that landowners could undertake a range of adjustments to minimize their welfare impacts, but imposition of...

The 1993 timber assessment market model: structure, projections, and policy simulations.

Treesearch

Darius M. Adams; Richard W. Haynes

1996-01-01

The 1993 timber assessment market model (TAMM) is a spatial model of the solidwood and timber inventory elements of the U.S. forest products sector. The TAMM model provides annual projections of volumes and prices in the solidwood products and sawtimber stumpage markets and estimates of total timber harvest and inventory by geographic region for periods of up to 50...

A Classroom Exercise to Examine the Trade-off between Mission Capacity and Life Cycle Cost

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kang, Keebom; Doerr, Kenneth H.

2015-01-01

This article presents a classroom exercise, centered on a simulation that has been used for 4 years in an MBA program to help students develop an understanding of the trade-offs involved in managing capital assets in the public sector. Though often ignored in business schools, "mission" is a key criterion that must be considered when…

Adoption of formal HIV and AIDS workplace policies: an analysis of industry/sector variations.

PubMed

Bakuwa, Rhoda

2010-12-01

Addressing HIV and AIDS is the responsibility of many stakeholders including private sector companies. However, increasing evidence reveals that the majority of companies around the world are yet to acknowledge and respond to HIV and AIDS as a workplace issue. One factor that has been identified in the literature as playing a role in determining whether a company responds to HIV and AIDS, or not, is the industry/sector in which a company operates. This study therefore sought to empirically examine whether in the context of Malawi there were significant variations in the adoption of formal HIV and AIDS workplace policies based on the industry/sector in which a company was operating, as well as analyse the dynamics underlying such variations. Using survey data collected from 152 randomly selected private sector companies in Malawi, the results of this study revealed significant variations in the adoption of HIV and AIDS workplace policies among companies operating in various sectors. Companies in the service sector were leading the adoption compared to companies in other sectors such as the trading sector. Furthermore, the evidence from this study showed that differences in staff participation in the activities of HIV and AIDS institutions may explain the industry/sector variations. These results provide an important avenue to scale up company responses to HIV and AIDS by intensifying staff participation in the activities of HIV and AIDS institutions. Such institutions appear to play a vital role of providing up to date HIV-and AIDS-related information upon which companies are able to develop a business case for responding to the epidemic.

The impact of oil price on Malaysian sector indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Luan, Yeap Pei; Ee, Ong Joo

2015-12-01

In this paper, vector error correction model (VECM) has been utilized to model the dynamic relationships between world crude oil price and the sector indices of Malaysia. The sector indices have been collected are covering the period Jan 1998 to Dec 2013. Surprisingly, our investigations show that oil price changes do not Granger-cause any of the sectors in all of Malaysia. However, sector indices of Food Producer and Utilities are found to be the cause of the changes in world crude oil prices. Furthermore, from the results of variance decomposition, very high percentage of shocks is explained by world crude oil price itself over the 12 months and small impact from other sector indices.

Public-Private Partnerships in China’s Urban Water Sector

PubMed Central

Mol, Arthur P. J.; Fu, Tao

2008-01-01

During the past decades, the traditional state monopoly in urban water management has been debated heavily, resulting in different forms and degrees of private sector involvement across the globe. Since the 1990s, China has also started experiments with new modes of urban water service management and governance in which the private sector is involved. It is premature to conclude whether the various forms of private sector involvement will successfully overcome the major problems (capital shortage, inefficient operation, and service quality) in China’s water sector. But at the same time, private sector involvement in water provisioning and waste water treatments seems to have become mainstream in transitional China. PMID:18256780

Analysis of Indonesian educational system standard with KSIM cross-impact method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arridjal, F.; Aldila, D.; Bustamam, A.

2017-07-01

The Result of The Programme of International Student Assessment (PISA) on 2012 shows that Indonesia is on 64'th position from 65 countries in Mathematics Mean Score. The 2013 Learning Curve Mapping, Indonesia is included in the 10th category of countries with the lowest performance on cognitive skills aspect, i.e. 37'th position from 40 countries. Competency is built by 3 aspects, one of them is cognitive aspect. The low result of mapping on cognitive aspect, describe the low of graduate competences as an output of Indonesia National Education System (INES). INES adopting a concept Eight Educational System Standards (EESS), one of them is graduate competency standard which connected directly with Indonesia's students. This research aims is to model INES by using KSIM cross-impact. Linear regression models of EESS constructed using the accreditation national data of Senior High Schools in Indonesia. The results then interpreted as impact value on the construction of KSIM cross-impact INES. The construction is used to analyze the interaction of EESS and doing numerical simulation for possible public policy in the education sector, i.e. stimulate the growth of education staff standard, content, process and infrastructure. All simulations of public policy has been done with 2 methods i.e with a multiplier impact method and with constant intervention method. From numerical simulation result, it is shown that stimulate the growth standard of content in the construction KSIM cross-impact EESS is the best option for public policy to maximize the growth of graduate competency standard.

Lattice Rotation Patterns and Strain Gradient Effects in Face-Centered-Cubic Single Crystals Under Spherical Indentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Y. F.; Larson, B. C.; Lee, J. H.

Strain gradient effects are commonly modeled as the origin of the size dependence of material strength, such as the dependence of indentation hardness on contact depth and spherical indenter radius. However, studies on the microstructural comparisons of experiments and theories are limited. First, we have extended a strain gradient Mises-plasticity model to its crystal plasticity version and implemented a finite element method to simulate the load-displacement response and the lattice rotation field of Cu single crystals under spherical indentation. The strain gradient simulations demonstrate that the forming of distinct sectors of positive and negative angles in the lattice rotation fieldmore » is governed primarily by the slip geometry and crystallographic orientations, depending only weakly on strain gradient effects, although hardness depends strongly on strain gradients. Second, the lattice rotation simulations are compared quantitatively with micron resolution, three-dimensional X-ray microscopy (3DXM) measurements of the lattice rotation fields under 100mN force, 100 mu m radius spherical indentations in < 111 >, < 110 >, and < 001 > oriented Cu single crystals. Third, noting the limitation of continuum strain gradient crystal plasticity models, two-dimensional discrete dislocation simulation results suggest that the hardness in the nanocontact regime is governed synergistically by a combination of strain gradients and source-limited plasticity. However, the lattice rotation field in the discrete dislocation simulations is found to be insensitive to these two factors but to depend critically on dislocation obstacle densities and strengths.« less

Curriculum Development Based On INQF and Business/Industries Sector for Improvement Competency of Basic Pattern Making Students at Vocational High School

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilasari, Yoni; Dasining

2018-04-01

In this era of globalization, every human resource is faced with a competitive climate that will have a major impact on the development of the business and industrial sector. Therefore it is deemed necessary to research the development of curriculum based on INQF and the business/industries sector in order to improve the competence of Sewing Technique for Vocational High School Students of fashion clothing program. The development of curricula based on INQF and the business/industries is an activity to produce a curriculum that suits the needs of the business and industries sector. The formulation of the problem in this research are: (1) what is the curriculum based on INQF and the business/industries sector?; (2) how is the process and procedure of curriculum development of fashion program profession based on INQF and the business/industries sector?; And (3) how the result of the curriculum of fashion expertise based on INQF and the business/industries sector. The aims of research are: (1) explain what is meant by curriculum based on INQF and business/industries sector; (2) to know the process and procedure of curriculum development of fashion program profession based on INQF and the business/industries sectors ; And (3) to know result the curriculum of clothing expertise based on INQF and the business/industries sector. The research method chosen in developing curriculum based on INQFand business/industry sector is using by 4-D model from Thiagarajan, which includes: (1) define; (2) design; (3) development; And (4) disseminate. Step 4, not done but in this study. The result of the research shows that: (1) the curriculum based on INQF and the business/industries sector is the curriculum created by applying the principles and procedures of the Indonesian National Qualification Framework (INQF) that will improve the quality of graduates of Vocational High School level 2, and establish cooperation with Business/industries as a guest teacher (counselor) in the learning process; (2) process and procedure of curriculum development of fashion program profession based on INQF and business/industries sector is process and procedure of curriculum development of fashion program profession based on INQF and business/industries sector there are several stages: feasibility study and requirement, preparation of initial concept of curriculum planning based on INQF and the business/industries sector in the field of fashion, as well as the development of a plan to implement the curriculum based on INQF and the business/industries sector in the field of fashion, this development will produce a curriculum of fashion proficiency program in the form of learning competency of sewing technology where the implementer of learning (counselor) Is a guest teacher from business/industries sector. (3) the learning device validity aspect earns an average score of 3.5 with very valid criteria and the practicality aspect of the device obtains an average score of 3.3 with practical criteria.

Modelling the future distribution of ammonium nitrate concentrations in The Netherlands for 2020: The sensitivity to meteorological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, J. E.; van der Swaluw, E.; de Vries, W. J.; Sauter, F. J.; van Pul, W. A. J.; Hoogerbrugge, R.

2015-08-01

We present a parameterization developed to simulate Ammonium particle (NH4+) concentrations in the Operational Priority Substances (OPS) source-receptor model, without the necessity of using a detailed chemical scheme. By using the ratios of the main pre-cursor gases SO2, NO2 and NH3, and utilising calculations performed using a chemical box-model, we show that the parameterization can simulate annual mean NH4+ concentration fields to within ∼15% of measured values at locations throughout the Netherlands. Performing simulations for different decades, we find a strong correlation of simulated NH4+ distributions for both past (1993-1995) and present (2009-2012) time periods. Although the total concentration of NH4+ has decreased over the period, we find that the fraction of NH4+ transported into the Netherlands has increased from around 40% in the past to 50% for present-day. This is due to the variable efficiency of mitigation practises across economic sectors. Performing simulations for the year 2020 using associated emission estimates, we show that there are generally decreases of ∼8-25% compared to present day concentrations. By altering the meteorological fields applied in the future simulations, we show that a significant uncertainty of between ∼50 and 100% exists on this estimated NH4+ distribution as a result of variability in the temperature dependent emission terms and relative humidity. Therefore, any projections of future NH4+ distributions should be performed using well chosen meteorological fields representing recent meteorological situations.

Predictions of Transient Flame Lift-Off Length With Comparison to Single-Cylinder Optical Engine Experiments

DOE PAGES

Senecal, P. K.; Pomraning, E.; Anders, J. W.; ...

2014-05-28

A state-of-the-art, grid-convergent simulation methodology was applied to three-dimensional calculations of a single-cylinder optical engine. A mesh resolution study on a sector-based version of the engine geometry further verified the RANS-based cell size recommendations previously presented by Senecal et al. (“Grid Convergent Spray Models for Internal Combustion Engine CFD Simulations,” ASME Paper No. ICEF2012-92043). Convergence of cylinder pressure, flame lift-off length, and emissions was achieved for an adaptive mesh refinement cell size of 0.35 mm. Furthermore, full geometry simulations, using mesh settings derived from the grid convergence study, resulted in excellent agreement with measurements of cylinder pressure, heat release rate,more » and NOx emissions. On the other hand, the full geometry simulations indicated that the flame lift-off length is not converged at 0.35 mm for jets not aligned with the computational mesh. Further simulations suggested that the flame lift-off lengths for both the nonaligned and aligned jets appear to be converged at 0.175 mm. With this increased mesh resolution, both the trends and magnitudes in flame lift-off length were well predicted with the current simulation methodology. Good agreement between the overall predicted flame behavior and the available chemiluminescence measurements was also achieved. Our present study indicates that cell size requirements for accurate prediction of full geometry flame lift-off lengths may be stricter than those for global combustion behavior. This may be important when accurate soot predictions are required.« less

Predictions of Transient Flame Lift-Off Length With Comparison to Single-Cylinder Optical Engine Experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Senecal, P. K.; Pomraning, E.; Anders, J. W.

A state-of-the-art, grid-convergent simulation methodology was applied to three-dimensional calculations of a single-cylinder optical engine. A mesh resolution study on a sector-based version of the engine geometry further verified the RANS-based cell size recommendations previously presented by Senecal et al. (“Grid Convergent Spray Models for Internal Combustion Engine CFD Simulations,” ASME Paper No. ICEF2012-92043). Convergence of cylinder pressure, flame lift-off length, and emissions was achieved for an adaptive mesh refinement cell size of 0.35 mm. Furthermore, full geometry simulations, using mesh settings derived from the grid convergence study, resulted in excellent agreement with measurements of cylinder pressure, heat release rate,more » and NOx emissions. On the other hand, the full geometry simulations indicated that the flame lift-off length is not converged at 0.35 mm for jets not aligned with the computational mesh. Further simulations suggested that the flame lift-off lengths for both the nonaligned and aligned jets appear to be converged at 0.175 mm. With this increased mesh resolution, both the trends and magnitudes in flame lift-off length were well predicted with the current simulation methodology. Good agreement between the overall predicted flame behavior and the available chemiluminescence measurements was also achieved. Our present study indicates that cell size requirements for accurate prediction of full geometry flame lift-off lengths may be stricter than those for global combustion behavior. This may be important when accurate soot predictions are required.« less

Hybrid fluid-particle simulation of whistler-mode waves in a compressed dipole magnetic field: Implications for dayside high-latitude chorus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Silva, C. L.; Wu, S.; Denton, R. E.; Hudson, M. K.; Millan, R. M.

2017-01-01

In this work we present a methodology for simulating whistler-mode waves self-consistently generated by electron temperature anisotropy in the inner magnetosphere. We present simulation results using a hybrid fluid/particle-in-cell code that treats the hot, anisotropic (i.e., ring current) electron population as particles and the background (i.e., the cold and inertialess) electrons as fluid. Since the hot electrons are only a small fraction of the total population, warm (and isotropic) particle electrons are added to the simulation to increase the fraction of particles with mass, providing a more accurate characterization of the wave dispersion relation. Ions are treated as a fixed background of positive charge density. The plasma transport equations are coupled to Maxwell's equations and solved in a meridional plane (a 2-D simulation with 3-D fields). We use a curvilinear coordinate system that follows the topological curvature of Earth's geomagnetic field lines, based on an analytic expression for a compressed dipole magnetic field. Hence, we are able to simulate whistler wave generation at dawn (pure dipole field lines) and dayside (compressed dipole) by simply adjusting one scalar quantity. We demonstrate how, on the dayside, whistler-mode waves can be locally generated at a range of high latitudes, within pockets of minimum magnetic field, and propagate equatorward. The obtained dayside waves (in a compressed dipole field) have similar amplitude and frequency content to their dawn sector counterparts (in a pure dipole field) but tend to propagate more field aligned.

Salt weathering in Egyptian limestone after laboratory simulations with continuous flow of salt solutions at different temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aly, Nevin; Gomez-Heras, Miguel; Hamed, Ayman; Alvarez de Buergo, Monica

2013-04-01

weathering in Egyptian limestone after laboratory simulations with continuous flow of salt solutions at different temperatures Nevin Aly Mohamed (1), Miguel Gomez - Heras(2), Ayman Hamed Ahmed (1), and Monica Alvarez de Buergo(2). (1) Faculty of Pet. & Min. Engineering- Suez Canal University, Suez, Egypt, (2) Instituto de Geociencias (CSIC-UCM) Madrid. Spain. Limestone is one of the most frequent building stones in Egypt and is used since the time of ancient Egyptians and salt weathering is one of the main threats to its conservation. Most of the limestone used in historical monuments in Cairo is a biomicrite extracted from the Mid-Eocene Mokattam Group. During this work, cylindrical samples (2.4 cm diameter and approx. 4.8 cm length) were subjected, in a purpose-made simulation chamber, to simulated laboratory weathering tests with fixed salt concentration (10% weight NaCl solution), at different temperatures, which were kept constant throughout each test (10, 20, 30, 40 oC). During each test, salt solutions flowed continuously imbibing samples by capilarity. Humidity within the simulation chamber was reduced using silica gel to keep it low and constant to increase evaporation rate. Temperature, humidity inside the simulation chamber and samples weight were digitally monitored during each test. Results show the advantages of the proposed experimental methodology using a continuous flow of salt solutions and shed light on the effect of temperature on the dynamics of salt crystallization on and within samples. Research funded by mission sector of high education ministry, Egypt and Geomateriales S2009/MAT-1629.

Analysis of performance and stress caused by a simulation of a mass casualty incident.

PubMed

Nieto Fernández-Pacheco, Antonio; Castro Delgado, Rafael; Arcos González, Pedro; Navarro Fernández, José Luis; Cerón Madrigal, José Joaquín; Juguera Rodriguez, Laura; Perez Alonso, Nuria; Armero-Barranco, David; Lidon López Iborra, María; Damian, Escribano Tortosa; Pardo Rios, Manuel

2018-03-01

To determine the stress that is potentially produced in professional health workers due to a mass casualty incident (MCI) simulated exercise, and its relation to prior academic training and the role played in the simulation. Observational study of stress in a MCI. For this work, two MCI drills comprised of 40 victims each were conducted. Two randomized groups of 36 students each were created: Master's Students Group (MSG) and Undergraduate Student Group (USG). The role performed by each student (triage or sectorization) was assessed. The stress level was determined by prior and subsequent measurements of alpha-amylase (αA), HR, SBP and DBP. The percentage of victims that were correctly triaged was 88.6%, 91.84% for MSG and 83.76% for the USG (p=0.004). The basal αA was 97,107.50±72,182.67IU/L and the subsequent αA was 136,195.55±90,176.46±IU/L (p<0.001). The baseline HR was 78.74±14.92beats/min and the subsequent HR was 95.65±23.59beats/min (p=0.000). We found significant differences in the αA between students who performed the triage and those who performed sectorization but there were no differences between undergraduate and Masters' students. Conducting a simulated exercise caused stress in personnel involved in the MCI, with a greater impact on participants who performed triage, although it was not influenced by their prior academic level. The stress level in our case did not affect or determine the performance of acquired skills. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved provincial emission inventory and speciation profiles of anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds: a case study for Jiangsu, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yu; Mao, Pan; Zhou, Yaduan; Yang, Yang; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Shekou; Dong, Yanping; Xie, Fangjian; Yu, Yiyong; Li, Wenqing

2017-06-01

Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) are the key precursors of ozone (O3) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. Accurate estimation of their emissions plays a crucial role in air quality simulation and policy making. We developed a high-resolution anthropogenic NMVOC emission inventory for Jiangsu in eastern China from 2005 to 2014, based on detailed information of individual local sources and field measurements of source profiles of the chemical industry. A total of 56 NMVOCs samples were collected in nine chemical plants and were then analyzed with a gas chromatography - mass spectrometry system (GC-MS). Source profiles of stack emissions from synthetic rubber, acetate fiber, polyether, vinyl acetate and ethylene production, and those of fugitive emissions from ethylene, butanol and octanol, propylene epoxide, polyethylene and glycol production were obtained. Various manufacturing technologies and raw materials led to discrepancies in source profiles between our domestic field tests and foreign results for synthetic rubber and ethylene production. The provincial NMVOC emissions were calculated to increase from 1774 Gg in 2005 to 2507 Gg in 2014, and relatively large emission densities were found in cities along the Yangtze River with developed economies and industries. The estimates were larger than those from most other available inventories, due mainly to the complete inclusion of emission sources and to the elevated activity levels from plant-by-plant investigation in this work. Industrial processes and solvent use were the largest contributing sectors, and their emissions were estimated to increase, respectively, from 461 to 958 and from 38 to 966 Gg. Alkanes, aromatics and oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs) were the most important species, accounting for 25.9-29.9, 20.8-23.2 and 18.2-21.0 % to annual total emissions, respectively. Quantified with a Monte Carlo simulation, the uncertainties of annual NMVOC emissions vary slightly through the years, and the result for 2014 was -41 to +93 %, expressed as 95 % confidence intervals (CI). Reduced uncertainty was achieved compared to previous national and regional inventories, attributed partly to the detailed classification of emission sources and to the use of information at plant level in this work. Discrepancies in emission estimation were explored for the chemical and refinery sectors with various data sources and methods. Compared with the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), the spatial distribution of emissions in this work were more influenced by the locations of large point sources, and smaller emissions were found in urban area for developed cities in southern Jiangsu. In addition, discrepancies were found between this work and MEIC in the speciation of NMVOC emissions under the atmospheric chemistry mechanisms CB05 and SAPRC99. The difference in species OLE1 resulted mainly from the updated source profile of building paint use and the differences in other species from the varied sector contributions to emissions in the two inventories. The Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulation was applied to evaluate the two inventories, and better performance (indicated by daily 1 h maximum O3 concentrations in Nanjing) were found for January, April and October 2012 when the provincial inventory was used.

Collaborative Workshops for Assessment and Creation of Multi-Objective Decision Support for Multiple Sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasprzyk, J. R.; Smith, R.; Raseman, W. J.; DeRousseau, M. A.; Dilling, L.; Ozekin, K.; Summers, R. S.; Balaji, R.; Livneh, B.; Rosario-Ortiz, F.; Sprain, L.; Srubar, W. V., III

2017-12-01

This presentation will report on three projects that used interactive workshops with stakeholders to develop problem formulations for Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA)-based decision support in diverse fields - water resources planning, water quality engineering under climate extremes, and sustainable materials design. When combined with a simulation model of a system, MOEAs use intelligent search techniques to provide new plans or designs. This approach is gaining increasing prominence in design and planning for environmental sustainability. To use this technique, a problem formulation - objectives and constraints (quantitative measures of performance) and decision variables (actions that can be modified to improve the system) - must be identified. Although critically important for MOEA effectiveness, the problem formulations are not always developed with stakeholders' interests in mind. To ameliorate this issue, project workshops were organized to improve the tool's relevance as well as collaboratively build problem formulations that can be used in applications. There were interesting differences among the projects, which altered the findings of each workshop. Attendees ranged from a group of water managers on the Front Range of Colorado, to water utility representatives from across the country, to a set of designers, academics, and trade groups. The extent to which the workshop participants were already familiar with simulation tools contributed to their willingness to accept the solutions that were generated using the tool. Moreover, in some instances, brainstorming new objectives to include within the MOEA expanded the scope of the problem formulation, relative to the initial conception of the researchers. Through describing results across a diversity of projects, the goal of this presentation is to report on how our approach may inform future decision support collaboration with a variety of stakeholders and sectors.

Zonal flow generation and its feedback on turbulence production in drift wave turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pushkarev, Andrey V.; Bos, Wouter J. T.; Nazarenko, Sergey V.

2013-04-15

Plasma turbulence described by the Hasegawa-Wakatani equations is simulated numerically for different models and values of the adiabaticity parameter C. It is found that for low values of C turbulence remains isotropic, zonal flows are not generated and there is no suppression of the meridional drift waves and particle transport. For high values of C, turbulence evolves towards highly anisotropic states with a dominant contribution of the zonal sector to the kinetic energy. This anisotropic flow leads to a decrease of turbulence production in the meridional sector and limits the particle transport across the mean isopycnal surfaces. This behavior allowsmore » to consider the Hasegawa-Wakatani equations a minimal PDE model, which contains the drift-wave/zonal-flow feedback loop mechanism.« less

Long-term consequences of selected competitive strategies during deregulation of the United States electric utility industry: System dynamics modeling and simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, Yehia Fahim

Currently, U.S. investor-owned utilities (IOUs) are facing major reforms in their business environment similar to the airlines, telecommunications, banking, and insurance industries. As a result, IOUs are gearing up for fierce price competition in the power generation sector, and are vying for electricity customers outside their franchised service territories. Energy experts predict that some IOUs may suffer fatal financial setbacks (especially those with nuclear plants), while others may thrive under competition. Both federal and state energy regulators anticipate that it may take from five to ten years to complete the transition of America's electric utility industry from a regulated monopoly to a market-driven business. During this transition, utility executives are pursuing aggressive business strategies to confront the upcoming price wars. The most compelling strategies focus on cutting operation and maintenance (O&M) costs of power production, downsizing the work force, and signing bilateral energy agreements with large price-sensitive customers to retain their business. This research assesses the impact of the three pivotal strategies on financial performance of utilities during transition to open market competition. A system-dynamics-based management flight simulator has been developed to predict the dynamic performance of a hypothetical IOU organization preparing for market competition. The simulation results show that while the three business strategies lead to short-lived gains, they also produce unanticipated long-term consequences that adversely impact the organization's operating revenues. Generally, the designed flight simulator serves as a learning laboratory which allows management to test new strategies before implementation.

Numerical Weather Predictions Evaluation Using Spatial Verification Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tegoulias, I.; Pytharoulis, I.; Kotsopoulos, S.; Kartsios, S.; Bampzelis, D.; Karacostas, T.

2014-12-01

During the last years high-resolution numerical weather prediction simulations have been used to examine meteorological events with increased convective activity. Traditional verification methods do not provide the desired level of information to evaluate those high-resolution simulations. To assess those limitations new spatial verification methods have been proposed. In the present study an attempt is made to estimate the ability of the WRF model (WRF -ARW ver3.5.1) to reproduce selected days with high convective activity during the year 2010 using those feature-based verification methods. Three model domains, covering Europe, the Mediterranean Sea and northern Africa (d01), the wider area of Greece (d02) and central Greece - Thessaly region (d03) are used at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km respectively. By alternating microphysics (Ferrier, WSM6, Goddard), boundary layer (YSU, MYJ) and cumulus convection (Kain-­-Fritsch, BMJ) schemes, a set of twelve model setups is obtained. The results of those simulations are evaluated against data obtained using a C-Band (5cm) radar located at the centre of the innermost domain. Spatial characteristics are well captured but with a variable time lag between simulation results and radar data. Acknowledgements: This research is co­financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds, through the action "COOPERATION 2011: Partnerships of Production and Research Institutions in Focused Research and Technology Sectors" (contract number 11SYN_8_1088 - DAPHNE) in the framework of the operational programme "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" and Regions in Transition (OPC II, NSRF 2007-­-2013).

Evaluating the Impact of Air Pollution on Human Health in China: the Price of Clean Air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Hu, Y.; Russell, A. G.; Woo, J.; Streets, D. G.

2003-12-01

Population growth, rapid urbanization and economic development are contributing to increased energy consumption in China. One of the unintended consequences is poor air quality due to a lack of environmental controls. The coal dependent energy structure in China only worsens the situation. Quantification of the environmental costs resulting from air pollution is needed in order to provide a mechanism for making strategic energy policy that accounts for the life-cycle cost of energy use. However, few such studies have been conducted for China that examine the entire energy system. Here we examine the extent to which public health has been compromised due to elevated air pollution and how China could incorporate environmental costs into future energy and environmental policies. Taking the Shandong region in eastern China as a case study, we develop a high-resolution regional inventory for anthropogenic emissions of NOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, VOCs, NH3 and SO2. SMOKE (Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System) is used to process spatial and temporal distributions and chemical speciation of the regional emissions, MM5 (the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Meso-scale Model, Version 3) is used to generate meteorology and Models3/CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling System) is used to simulate ambient concentrations of particulates and other gaseous species in this region. We then estimate the mortality and morbidity in this region resulting from exposure to these air pollutants. We also estimate the monetary values associated with the resulting mortality and morbidity and quantify the contributions from various economic sectors (i.e. power generation, transportation, industry, residential and others). Finally, we examine the potential health benefits that adoption of best available or advanced energy (coal-based, in particular) and environmental technologies in different sectors could bring about. The results of these analyses are intended to provide insight into whether China should choose to continue business as usual, adopt marginal, additional environmental controls for conventional energy technologies, or leapfrog to advanced, low-emission energy technologies. Finally, we make recommendations on which energy sector priority should be placed after environmental costs are taken into account.

Final Technical Report. Project Boeing SGS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bell, Thomas E.

Boeing and its partner, PJM Interconnection, teamed to bring advanced “defense-grade” technologies for cyber security to the US regional power grid through demonstration in PJM’s energy management environment. Under this cooperative project with the Department of Energy, Boeing and PJM have developed and demonstrated a host of technologies specifically tailored to the needs of PJM and the electric sector as a whole. The team has demonstrated to the energy industry a combination of processes, techniques and technologies that have been successfully implemented in the commercial, defense, and intelligence communities to identify, mitigate and continuously monitor the cyber security of criticalmore » systems. Guided by the results of a Cyber Security Risk-Based Assessment completed in Phase I, the Boeing-PJM team has completed multiple iterations through the Phase II Development and Phase III Deployment phases. Multiple cyber security solutions have been completed across a variety of controls including: Application Security, Enhanced Malware Detection, Security Incident and Event Management (SIEM) Optimization, Continuous Vulnerability Monitoring, SCADA Monitoring/Intrusion Detection, Operational Resiliency, Cyber Range simulations and hands on cyber security personnel training. All of the developed and demonstrated solutions are suitable for replication across the electric sector and/or the energy sector as a whole. Benefits identified include; Improved malware and intrusion detection capability on critical SCADA networks including behavioral-based alerts resulting in improved zero-day threat protection; Improved Security Incident and Event Management system resulting in better threat visibility, thus increasing the likelihood of detecting a serious event; Improved malware detection and zero-day threat response capability; Improved ability to systematically evaluate and secure in house and vendor sourced software applications; Improved ability to continuously monitor and maintain secure configuration of network devices resulting in reduced vulnerabilities for potential exploitation; Improved overall cyber security situational awareness through the integration of multiple discrete security technologies into a single cyber security reporting console; Improved ability to maintain the resiliency of critical systems in the face of a targeted cyber attack of other significant event; Improved ability to model complex networks for penetration testing and advanced training of cyber security personnel« less

Managerial competencies of hospital managers in South Africa: a survey of managers in the public and private sectors

PubMed Central

Pillay, Rubin

2008-01-01

Background South Africa has large public and private sectors and there is a common perception that public sector hospitals are inefficient and ineffective while the privately owned and managed hospitals provide superior care and are more sustainable. The underlying assumption is that there is a potential gap in management capacity between the two sectors. This study aims to ascertain the skills and competency levels of hospital managers in South Africa and to determine whether there are any significant differences in competency levels between managers in the different sectors. Methods A survey using a self administered questionnaire was conducted among hospital managers in South Africa. Respondents were asked to rate their proficiency with seven key functions that they perform. These included delivery of health care, planning, organizing, leading, controlling, legal and ethical, and self-management. Ratings were based on a five point Likert scale ranging from very low skill level to very high skill level. Results The results show that managers in the private sector perceived themselves to be significantly more competent than their public sector colleagues in most of the management facets. Public sector managers were also more likely than their private sector colleagues to report that they required further development and training. Conclusion The findings confirm our supposition that there is a lack of management capacity within the public sector in South Africa and that there is a significant gap between private and public sectors. It provides evidence that there is a great need for further development of managers, especially those in the public sector. The onus is therefore on administrators and those responsible for management education and training to identify managers in need of development and to make available training that is contextually relevant in terms of design and delivery. PMID:18257936

Experimental and Numerical Research of a Novel Combustion Chamber for Small Gas Turbine Engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuma, J.; Kubata, J.; Betak, V.; Hybl, R.

2013-04-01

New combustion chamber concept (based on burner JETIS-JET Induced Swirl) for small gas turbine engine (up to 200kW) is presented in this article. The combustion chamber concept is based on the flame stabilization by the generated swirl swirl generated by two opposite tangentially arranged jet tubes in the intermediate zone, this arrangement replaces air swirler, which is very complicated and expensive part in the scope of small gas turbines with annular combustion chamber. The mixing primary jets are oriented partially opposite to the main exhaust gasses flow, this enhances hot product recirculation and fuel-air mixing necessary for low NOx production and flame stability. To evaluate the designed concept a JETIS burner demonstrator (methane fuel) was manufactured and atmospheric experimental measurements of CO, NOx for various fuel nozzles and jet tubes the configuration were done. Results of these experiments and comparison with CFD simulation are presented here. Practical application of the new chamber concept in small gas turbine liquid fuel combustor was evaluated (verified) on 3 nozzles planar combustor sector test rig at atmospheric conditions results of the experiment and numerical simulation are also presented.

48 CFR 5231.205-90 - Shipbuilding capability preservation agreements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... an incentive for a shipbuilder to obtain new private sector work, thereby reducing the Navy's cost of... agreement permits the contractor to claim certain indirect costs attributable to its private sector work as... subsection, means an additional indirect cost that results from performing private sector work described in a...

Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

2014-05-01

To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

Growing ethanol sector drives corn supply chain shift for the last decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Schmitt, J.; Brauman, K. A.; Smith, T. M.; Suh, K.

2017-12-01

The US is the largest producer in the world, 89% of corn production uses in domestic demands in 2012. Carbon emission and irrigated water usage in the corn farming stage are hot-spot in the meat production sectors, comprise 37% of all US corn demand. The annual capacity of the ethanol sector increases from 6.5 billion gallons to 15.3 billion gallons for the last decade. The growth of corn demand in ethanol sector makes corn supply chain shift. Most of the ethanol plants located in the Mid-west where is the top 12 corn producing states. Therefore animal feeds take more supply from the other states. The purpose of this study is to estimate environmental impacts and water scarcity associated embedded corn by the temporal and spatial corn supply chain model based on a cost minimization. We use publicly available county-level data on corn production, feed demands, aggregative carbon emission and irrigated water usage in farming state, and a water depletion index as a metric for determining water scarcity. The water stressed counties produce 23.3% of US total corn production in 2012, and the irrigated corn is 14.2%. We simulated the corn supply chain using linear programming and developed the web-based visualization tools called FoodS3 (Food Systems Supply-chain Sustainability tool, http://foods3.org).

F-region and Topside Plasma Response During Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Fedrizzi, M.; Maruyama, N.; Richards, P.; Fang, T. W.; Codrescu, M.

2015-12-01

The noon to dusk mid-latitudes sector appears to be a preferred region for substantial rise in plasma density during elevated geomagnetic activity. Previous the plasma density increase in this sector was referred to as the "dusk effect" and more recently the "storm enhanced density". Certainly in some longitude sectors, if the increase in magnetospheric convection occurs at the appropriate Universal Time, the activity does not need to be particularly strong to produce a significant increase in plasma content, such as during the February 27th 2014 event when Kp reached only 6 but there was substantial loss of the FAA WAAS system. The March 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm was considerably more intense with respect to Kp and Dst, and different in timing and duration, so the response and longitude sectors affected were quite different. Numerical simulation of the St. Patrick's Day storm with a coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model (CTIPe) and a stand-alone ionosphere-plasmasphere code (IPE) can be used to understand the physical processes in the plasma and neutral response. In particular the focus is on the vertical distribution of the plasma from the F-region to the topside. The models can be used to assess the impact of electric fields, meridional neutral winds, and solar illumination aiding plasma buildup and storage, neutral composition creating depletions, and magnetospheric convection creating structure.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Huan; Cheng, Liang; Chuah, Mooi Choo

In the generation, transmission, and distribution sectors of the smart grid, intelligence of field devices is realized by programmable logic controllers (PLCs). Many smart-grid subsystems are essentially cyber-physical energy systems (CPES): For instance, the power system process (i.e., the physical part) within a substation is monitored and controlled by a SCADA network with hosts running miscellaneous applications (i.e., the cyber part). To study the interactions between the cyber and physical components of a CPES, several co-simulation platforms have been proposed. However, the network simulators/emulators of these platforms do not include a detailed traffic model that takes into account the impactsmore » of the execution model of PLCs on traffic characteristics. As a result, network traces generated by co-simulation only reveal the impacts of the physical process on the contents of the traffic generated by SCADA hosts, whereas the distinction between PLCs and computing nodes (e.g., a hardened computer running a process visualization application) has been overlooked. To generate realistic network traces using co-simulation for the design and evaluation of applications relying on accurate traffic profiles, it is necessary to establish a traffic model for PLCs. In this work, we propose a parameterized model for PLCs that can be incorporated into existing co-simulation platforms. We focus on the DNP3 subsystem of slave PLCs, which automates the processing of packets from the DNP3 master. To validate our approach, we extract model parameters from both the configuration and network traces of real PLCs. Simulated network traces are generated and compared against those from PLCs. Our evaluation shows that our proposed model captures the essential traffic characteristics of DNP3 slave PLCs, which can be used to extend existing co-simulation platforms and gain further insights into the behaviors of CPES.« less

On purpose simulation model for molten salt CSP parabolic trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caranese, Carlo; Matino, Francesca; Maccari, Augusto

2017-06-01

The utilization of computer codes and simulation software is one of the fundamental aspects for the development of any kind of technology and, in particular, in CSP sector for researchers, energy institutions, EPC and others stakeholders. In that extent, several models for the simulation of CSP plant have been developed with different main objectives (dynamic simulation, productivity analysis, techno economic optimization, etc.), each of which has shown its own validity and suitability. Some of those models have been designed to study several plant configurations taking into account different CSP plant technologies (Parabolic trough, Linear Fresnel, Solar Tower or Dish) and different settings for the heat transfer fluid, the thermal storage systems and for the overall plant operating logic. Due to a lack of direct experience of Molten Salt Parabolic Trough (MSPT) commercial plant operation, most of the simulation tools do not foresee a suitable management of the thermal energy storage logic and of the solar field freeze protection system, but follow standard schemes. ASSALT, Ase Software for SALT csp plants, has been developed to improve MSPT plant's simulations, by exploiting the most correct operational strategies in order to provide more accurate technical and economical results. In particular, ASSALT applies MSPT specific control logics for the electric energy production and delivery strategy as well as the operation modes of the Solar Field in off-normal sunshine condition. With this approach, the estimated plant efficiency is increased and the electricity consumptions required for the plant operation and management is drastically reduced. Here we present a first comparative study on a real case 55 MWe Molten Salt Parabolic Trough CSP plant placed in the Tibetan highlands, using ASSALT and SAM (System Advisor Model), which is a commercially available simulation tool.

Intervessel connectivity and relationship with patterns of lateral water exchange within and between xylem sectors in seven xeric shrubs from the great Sahara desert.

PubMed

Halis, Youcef; Mayouf, Rabah; Benhaddya, Mohamed Lamine; Belhamra, Mohamed

2013-03-01

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the role of intervessel contacts in determining the patterns of hydraulic integration both within and between xylem sectors. The degree of intervessel contacts and the lateral exchange capability within and between sectors were examined and correlated in different xeric shrubs. A dye injection method was used to detect the connections between vessels; an apoplastic dye was sucked through a known number of vessels and its distribution in the xylem network was followed. Hydraulic techniques were used to measure axial and tangential conductivity both within and between xylem sectors. The intra- and inter-sector integration indexes were then determined as the ratio of tangential to axial conductance. Species differed significantly in the degree of intervessel contacts, intra- and inter-sector integration index. In all cases, hydraulic integration was observed to be higher within sector than between sectors. From the correlation analyses, the intervessel contacts showed a very weak relationship with inter-sector integration index and a strong positive relationship with intra-sector integration index. Results suggested that (1) the factors affecting patterns of lateral flow within xylem sectors might be relatively different from those between sectors. (2) The degree of intervessel contacts was a major determinant of hydraulic integration within the same xylem sector. (3) Intervessel connectivity alone was a poor predictor of hydraulic integration between different sectors, implying a significant contribution of other anatomical, physiological and environmental factors in determining the patterns of integrated-sectored transport within woody stems.

Do the stars align? Distribution of high-quality ratings of healthcare sectors across US markets.

PubMed

Figueroa, Jose; Feyman, Yevgeniy; Blumenthal, Daniel; Jha, Ashish

2018-04-01

The US government created five-star rating systems to evaluate hospital, nursing homes, home health agency and dialysis centre quality. The degree to which quality is a property of organisations versus geographical markets is unclear. To determine whether high-quality healthcare service sectors are clustered within US healthcare markets. Using data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services' Hospital, Dialysis, Nursing Home and Home Health Compare databases, we calculated the mean star ratings of four healthcare sectors in 304 US hospital referral regions (HRRs). For each sector, we ranked HRRs into terciles by mean star rating. Within each HRR, we assessed concordance of tercile rank across sectors using a multirater kappa. Using t-tests, we compared characteristics of HRRs with three to four top-ranked sectors, one to two top-ranked sectors and zero top-ranked sectors. Six HRRs (2.0% of HRRs) had four top-ranked healthcare sectors, 38 (12.5%) had three top-ranked health sectors, 71 (23.4%) had two top-ranked sectors, 111 (36.5%) had one top-ranked sector and 78 (25.7%) HRRs had no top-ranked sectors. A multirater kappa across all sectors showed poor to slight agreement (K=0.055). Compared with HRRs with zero top-ranked sectors, those with three to four top-ranked sectors had higher median incomes, fewer black residents, lower mortality rates and were less impoverished. Results were similar for HRRs with one to two top-ranked sectors. Few US healthcare markets exhibit high-quality performance across four distinct healthcare service sectors, suggesting that high-quality care in one sector may not be dependent on or improve care quality in other sectors. Policies that promote accountability for quality across sectors (eg, bundled payments and shared quality metrics) may be needed to systematically improve quality across sectors. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Progression of Diabetic Capillary Occlusion: A Model

PubMed Central

Gens, John Scott; Glazier, James A.; Burns, Stephen A.; Gast, Thomas J.

2016-01-01

An explanatory computational model is developed of the contiguous areas of retinal capillary loss which play a large role in diabetic maculapathy and diabetic retinal neovascularization. Strictly random leukocyte mediated capillary occlusion cannot explain the occurrence of large contiguous areas of retinal ischemia. Therefore occlusion of an individual capillary must increase the probability of occlusion of surrounding capillaries. A retinal perifoveal vascular sector as well as a peripheral retinal capillary network and a deleted hexagonal capillary network are modelled using Compucell3D. The perifoveal modelling produces a pattern of spreading capillary loss with associated macular edema. In the peripheral network, spreading ischemia results from the progressive loss of the ladder capillaries which connect peripheral arterioles and venules. System blood flow was elevated in the macular model before a later reduction in flow in cases with progression of capillary occlusions. Simulations differing only in initial vascular network structures but with identical dynamics for oxygen, growth factors and vascular occlusions, replicate key clinical observations of ischemia and macular edema in the posterior pole and ischemia in the retinal periphery. The simulation results also seem consistent with quantitative data on macular blood flow and qualitative data on venous oxygenation. One computational model applied to distinct capillary networks in different retinal regions yielded results comparable to clinical observations in those regions. PMID:27300722

[Learning together for working together: interprofessionalism in simulation training for collaborative skills development].

PubMed

Policard, Florence

2014-06-01

The use of simulation as an educational tool is becoming more widespread in healthcare. Such training gathers doctors and nurses together, which is a rare opportunity in such a sector. The present research focuses on the contribution of inter-professional training to the development of collaborative skills when managing an emergency situation in the context of anesthesia or intensive care. From direct observations of post-simulation debriefing sessions and interviews held with learners in post graduate or in-service training, either in single or multi-professional groups, this study shows that these sessions, based on experiential learning and reflective practice, help to build a shared vision of the problem and of common operative patterns, supporting better communication and the "ability to work in a team".

Distributed Efficient Similarity Search Mechanism in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Khandakar; Gregory, Mark A.

2015-01-01

The Wireless Sensor Network similarity search problem has received considerable research attention due to sensor hardware imprecision and environmental parameter variations. Most of the state-of-the-art distributed data centric storage (DCS) schemes lack optimization for similarity queries of events. In this paper, a DCS scheme with metric based similarity searching (DCSMSS) is proposed. DCSMSS takes motivation from vector distance index, called iDistance, in order to transform the issue of similarity searching into the problem of an interval search in one dimension. In addition, a sector based distance routing algorithm is used to efficiently route messages. Extensive simulation results reveal that DCSMSS is highly efficient and significantly outperforms previous approaches in processing similarity search queries. PMID:25751081

A Comparison of FPGA and GPGPU Designs for Bayesian Occupancy Filters.

PubMed

Medina, Luis; Diez-Ochoa, Miguel; Correal, Raul; Cuenca-Asensi, Sergio; Serrano, Alejandro; Godoy, Jorge; Martínez-Álvarez, Antonio; Villagra, Jorge

2017-11-11

Grid-based perception techniques in the automotive sector based on fusing information from different sensors and their robust perceptions of the environment are proliferating in the industry. However, one of the main drawbacks of these techniques is the traditionally prohibitive, high computing performance that is required for embedded automotive systems. In this work, the capabilities of new computing architectures that embed these algorithms are assessed in a real car. The paper compares two ad hoc optimized designs of the Bayesian Occupancy Filter; one for General Purpose Graphics Processing Unit (GPGPU) and the other for Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). The resulting implementations are compared in terms of development effort, accuracy and performance, using datasets from a realistic simulator and from a real automated vehicle.

June Solstice Equatorial Spread F in the American Sector: A Numerical Assessment of Linear Stability Aided by Incoherent Scatter Radar Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Weijia; S. Rodrigues, Fabiano

2018-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that weakening downward plasma drifts can produce favorable conditions for the ionospheric Generalized Rayleigh-Taylor (GRT) instability and explain the occurrence of postmidnight equatorial spread F (ESF). We evaluated this hypothesis using numerical simulations aided by measurements and attempted to explain ESF events observed in the American sector during June solstice, low solar flux conditions. We analyzed plasma drifts and ESF measurements made by the incoherent scatter radar of the Jicamarca Radio Observatory (11.95° S, 76.87° W, ˜1° dip). We found adequate measurements during a prototypical, quiet time event on 4-5 June 2008 when the downward drifts weakened and a fully developed ESF appeared. The measured drifts were used as input for the SAMI2 model. SAMI2 reproduced an "apparent" uplift of the ionosphere based on h'F measurements that was consistent with expectations and observations. SAMI2 also provided parameters for estimation of the flux tube linear growth rates of GRT instability associated with the weakening drift event. We found that the weakening drifts did produce unstable conditions with positive growth rates. The growth rates, however, were slower than those obtained for typical, premidnight ESF events and those obtained for similar drift conditions in other longitude sectors. We show, however, that departures in the wind pattern, from climatological model predictions, can produce favorable conditions for instability development. Following the hypothesis of Huba and Krall (2013) and using SAMI2 simulations, we show that equatorward winds, when combined with weakening drifts, could have contributed to the unstable conditions responsible for the postmidnight ESF events.

Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe.

PubMed

Fraga, Helder; García de Cortázar Atauri, Iñaki; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Santos, João A

2016-11-01

Viticulture is a key socio-economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980-2005) and future (2041-2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO 2 physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO 2 partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

New Business Models to Accelerate Innovation in Pediatric Oncology Therapeutics: A Review.

PubMed

Das, Sonya; Rousseau, Raphaël; Adamson, Peter C; Lo, Andrew W

2018-06-02

Few patient populations are as helpless and in need of advocacy as children with cancer. Pharmaceutical companies have historically faced significant financial disincentives to pursue pediatric oncology therapeutics, including low incidence, high costs of conducting pediatric trials, and a lack of funding for early-stage research. Review of published studies of pediatric oncology research and the cost of drug development, as well as clinical trials of pediatric oncology therapeutics at ClinicalTrials.gov, identified 77 potential drug development projects to be included in a hypothetical portfolio. The returns of this portfolio were simulated so as to compute the financial returns and risk. Simulated business strategies include combining projects at different clinical phases of development, obtaining partial funding from philanthropic grants, and obtaining government guarantees to reduce risk. The purely private-sector portfolio exhibited expected returns ranging from -24.2% to 10.2%, depending on the model variables assumed. This finding suggests significant financial disincentives for pursuing pediatric oncology therapeutics and implies that financial support from the public and philanthropic sectors is essential. Phase diversification increases the likelihood of a successful drug and yielded expected returns of -5.3% to 50.1%. Standard philanthropic grants had a marginal association with expected returns, and government guarantees had a greater association by reducing downside exposure. An assessment of a proposed venture philanthropy fund demonstrated stronger performance than the purely private-sector-funded portfolio or those with traditional amounts of philanthropic support. A combination of financial and business strategies has the potential to maximize expected return while eliminating some downside risk-in certain cases enabling expected returns as high as 50.1%-that can overcome current financial disincentives and accelerate the development of pediatric oncology therapeutics.

Knowledge Based Cloud FE Simulation of Sheet Metal Forming Processes.

PubMed

Zhou, Du; Yuan, Xi; Gao, Haoxiang; Wang, Ailing; Liu, Jun; El Fakir, Omer; Politis, Denis J; Wang, Liliang; Lin, Jianguo

2016-12-13

The use of Finite Element (FE) simulation software to adequately predict the outcome of sheet metal forming processes is crucial to enhancing the efficiency and lowering the development time of such processes, whilst reducing costs involved in trial-and-error prototyping. Recent focus on the substitution of steel components with aluminum alloy alternatives in the automotive and aerospace sectors has increased the need to simulate the forming behavior of such alloys for ever more complex component geometries. However these alloys, and in particular their high strength variants, exhibit limited formability at room temperature, and high temperature manufacturing technologies have been developed to form them. Consequently, advanced constitutive models are required to reflect the associated temperature and strain rate effects. Simulating such behavior is computationally very expensive using conventional FE simulation techniques. This paper presents a novel Knowledge Based Cloud FE (KBC-FE) simulation technique that combines advanced material and friction models with conventional FE simulations in an efficient manner thus enhancing the capability of commercial simulation software packages. The application of these methods is demonstrated through two example case studies, namely: the prediction of a material's forming limit under hot stamping conditions, and the tool life prediction under multi-cycle loading conditions.

Knowledge Based Cloud FE Simulation of Sheet Metal Forming Processes

PubMed Central

Zhou, Du; Yuan, Xi; Gao, Haoxiang; Wang, Ailing; Liu, Jun; El Fakir, Omer; Politis, Denis J.; Wang, Liliang; Lin, Jianguo

2016-01-01

The use of Finite Element (FE) simulation software to adequately predict the outcome of sheet metal forming processes is crucial to enhancing the efficiency and lowering the development time of such processes, whilst reducing costs involved in trial-and-error prototyping. Recent focus on the substitution of steel components with aluminum alloy alternatives in the automotive and aerospace sectors has increased the need to simulate the forming behavior of such alloys for ever more complex component geometries. However these alloys, and in particular their high strength variants, exhibit limited formability at room temperature, and high temperature manufacturing technologies have been developed to form them. Consequently, advanced constitutive models are required to reflect the associated temperature and strain rate effects. Simulating such behavior is computationally very expensive using conventional FE simulation techniques. This paper presents a novel Knowledge Based Cloud FE (KBC-FE) simulation technique that combines advanced material and friction models with conventional FE simulations in an efficient manner thus enhancing the capability of commercial simulation software packages. The application of these methods is demonstrated through two example case studies, namely: the prediction of a material's forming limit under hot stamping conditions, and the tool life prediction under multi-cycle loading conditions. PMID:28060298

Impact of Ring Current Ions on Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Wave Dispersion Relation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.

2007-01-01

Effect of the ring current ions in the real part of electromagnetic ion Cyclotron wave dispersion relation is studied on global scale. Recent Cluster observations by Engebretson et al. showed that although the temperature anisotropy of is energetic (> 10 keV) ring current protons was high during the entire 22 November 2003 perigee pass, electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves were observed only in conjunction with intensification of the ion fluxes below 1 keV by over an order of magnitude. To study the effect of the ring current ions on the wave dispersive properties and the corresponding global wave redistribution, we use a self-consistent model of interacting ring current and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves, and simulate the May 1998 storm. The main findings of our simulation can be summarized as follows: First, the plasma density enhancement in the night MLT sector during the main and recovery storm phases is mostly caused by injection of suprathermal plasma sheet H + (approximately < 1 keV), which dominate the thermal plasma density. Second, during the recovery storm phases, the ring current modification of the wave dispersion relation leads to a qualitative change of the wave patterns in the postmidnight-dawn sector for L > 4.75. This "new" wave activity is well organized by outward edges of dense suprathermal ring current spots, and the waves are not observed if the ring current ions are not included in the real part of dispersion relation. Third, the most intense wave-induced ring current precipitation is located in the night MLT sector and caused by modification of the wave dispersion relation. The strongest precipitating fluxes of about 8 X 10(exp 6)/ (cm(exp 2) - s X st) are found near L=5.75, MLT=2 during the early recovery phase on 4 May. Finally, the nightside precipitation is more intense than the dayside fluxes, even if there are less intense waves, because the convection field moves ring current ions into the loss cone on the nightside, but drives them out of the loss cone on the dayside. So convection and wave scattering reinforce each other in the nightside, but interfere in the dayside sector.

U.S. electric power sector transitions required to achieve 80% reductions in economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions: Results based on a state-level model of the U.S. energy system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iyer, Gokul C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

The United States has articulated a deep decarbonization strategy for achieving a reduction in economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 80% below 2005 levels by 2050. Achieving such deep emissions reductions will entail a major transformation of the energy system and of the electric power sector in particular. , This study uses a detailed state-level model of the U.S. energy system embedded within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA) to demonstrate pathways for the evolution of the U.S. electric power sector that achieve 80% economy-wide reductions in GHG emissions by 2050. The pathways presented in this report are based onmore » feedback received during a workshop of experts organized by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis. Our analysis demonstrates that achieving deep decarbonization by 2050 will require substantial decarbonization of the electric power sector resulting in an increase in the deployment of zero-carbon and low-carbon technologies such as renewables and carbon capture utilization and storage. The present results also show that the degree to which the electric power sector will need to decarbonize and low-carbon technologies will need to deploy depends on the nature of technological advances in the energy sector, the ability of end-use sectors to electrify and level of electricity demand.« less

Risk of equine infectious disease transmission by non-race horse movements in Japan.

PubMed

Hayama, Yoko; Kobayashi, Sota; Nishida, Takeshi; Nishiguchi, Akiko; Tsutsui, Toshiyuki

2010-07-01

For determining surveillance programs or infectious disease countermeasures, risk evaluation approaches have been recently undertaken in the field of animal health. In the present study, to help establish efficient and effective surveillance and countermeasures for equine infectious diseases, we evaluated the potential risk of equine infectious disease transmission in non-race horses from the viewpoints of horse movements and health management practices by conducting a survey of non-race horse holdings. From the survey, the non-race horse population was classified into the following five sectors based on their purposes: the equestrian sector, private owner sector, exhibition sector, fattening sector and others. Our survey results showed that the equestrian and private owner sectors had the largest population sizes, and movements between and within these sectors occurred quite frequently, while there was little movement in the other sectors. Qualitative evaluation showed that the equestrian and private owner sectors had relatively high risks of equine infectious disease transmission through horse movements. Therefore, it would be effective to concentrate on these two sectors when implementing surveillance or preventative measures. Special priority should be given to the private owner sector because this sector has not implemented inspection and vaccination well compared with the equestrian sector, which possesses a high compliance rate for these practices. This qualitative risk evaluation focused on horse movements and health management practices could provide a basis for further risk evaluation to establish efficient and effective surveillance and countermeasures for equine infectious diseases.

Impacts of global, regional, and sectoral black carbon emission reductions on surface air quality and human mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anenberg, S. C.; Talgo, K.; Arunachalam, S.; Dolwick, P.; Jang, C.; West, J. J.

2011-04-01

As a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC) is associated with premature human mortality. BC also affects climate by absorbing solar radiation and reducing planetary albedo. Several studies have examined the climate impacts of BC emissions, but the associated health impacts have been studied less extensively. Here, we examine the surface PM2.5 and premature mortality impacts of halving anthropogenic BC emissions globally, from eight world regions, and from three major economic sectors. We use a global chemical transport model, MOZART-4, to simulate PM2.5 concentrations and a health impact function to calculate premature cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths. We estimate that halving global anthropogenic BC emissions reduces outdoor population-weighted average PM2.5 by 542 ng m-3 (1.8%) and avoids 157 000 (95% confidence interval, 120 000-194 000) annual premature deaths globally, with the vast majority occurring within the source region. While most of these avoided deaths can be achieved by halving East Asian emissions (54%), followed by South Asian emissions (31%), South Asian emissions have 50% greater mortality impacts per unit BC emitted than East Asian emissions. Globally, the contribution of residential, industrial, and transportation BC emissions to PM2.5-related mortality is 1.3, 1.2, and 0.6 times each sector's contribution to anthropogenic BC emissions, owing to the degree of co-location with population. Impacts of residential BC emissions are underestimated since indoor PM2.5 exposure is excluded. We estimate ~8 times more avoided deaths when BC and organic carbon (OC) emissions are halved together, suggesting that these results greatly underestimate the full air pollution-related mortality benefits of BC mitigation strategies which generally decrease both BC and OC. Confidence in our results would be strengthened by reducing uncertainties in emissions, model parameterization of aerosol processes, grid resolution, and PM2.5 concentration-mortality relationships globally.

Advancing Articulation: Models of College-University Collaboration in Canadian Higher

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirby, Dale

2008-01-01

This paper reports on the results of an analysis of program articulation between the college and university sectors in Canada. The Canadian post-secondary system is best described as a binary system with discrete university and non-university sectors. While there are complex sectoral differences between the two institutional types in terms of…

Forestry sector analysis for developing countries: issues and methods.

Treesearch

R.W. Haynes

1993-01-01

A satellite meeting of the 10th Forestry World Congress focused on the methods used for forest sector analysis and their applications in both developed and developing countries. The results of that meeting are summarized, and a general approach for forest sector modeling is proposed. The approach includes models derived from the existing...

78 FR 23837 - Cranes and Derricks in Construction: Underground Construction and Demolition

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-23

... report here the results for the entire heavy-and-civil engineering sector and the entire site... in this final rule because employers included in the heavy-and-civil engineering sector, or the site... final rule. This final rule affects two construction sectors: NAICS 237990 (Other Heavy and Civil...

Economic development and multiple air pollutant emissions from the industrial sector.

PubMed

Fujii, Hidemichi; Managi, Shunsuke

2016-02-01

This study analyzed the relationship between economic growth and emissions of eight environmental air pollutants (carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), nitrogen oxide (NOx), sulfur oxide (SOx), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC), and ammonia (NH3)) in 39 countries from 1995 to 2009. We tested an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for 16 individual industry sectors and for the total industrial sector. The results clarified that at least ten individual industries do not have an EKC relationship in eight air pollutants even though this relationship was observed in the country and total industrial sector level data. We found that the key industries that dictated the EKC relationship in the country and the total industrial sector existed in CO2, N2O, CO, and NMVOC emissions. Finally, the EKC turning point and the relationship between economic development and trends of air pollutant emissions differ among industries according to the pollution substances. These results suggest inducing new environmental policy design such as the sectoral crediting mechanism, which focuses on the industrial characteristics of emissions.

[Risky alcohol consumption among working Canadians: variations among different occupations and economic sectors].

PubMed

Marchand, Alain; Charbonneau, Martin

2009-01-01

Examine the differences in weekly high-risk alcohol consumption among working people by economic sector and occupation. Secondary analysis of data from Cycle 2.1 of the Canadian Community Health Survey conducted by Statistics Canada. The sample comprised 76,136 subjects 15 years of age and older in 139 occupations and 96 economic sectors. The prevalence of weekly high-risk alcohol consumption is estimated to be 8% among workers. Major disparities exist between men (11%) and women (6%). The results suggest a differential in weekly high-risk alcohol consumption by occupation and economic sector that is independent of working conditions, family status, and personal characteristics. Workers in five occupational groups have a greater likelihood of at-risk consumption (OR 1.88-2.94), whereas seven economic sectors stand out as having a lower risk (OR 0.25-0.59). Occupation appears to be of greater utility than economic sector for defining courses of action in public health. These research results make it possible to identify a set of occupations to target for preventive interventions in conjunction with other public health interventions.

Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

2013-07-01

The prospective future adoption of molecular hydrogen (H2) to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question of whether the adoption would have adverse effects on the stratospheric ozone. The possibility of undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on the stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers) model. Since future growth is highly uncertain, we evaluate the impact of two world evolution scenarios, one based on an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) high-emitting scenario (A1FI) and the other on an IPCC low-emitting scenario (B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the evolution growth scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two boundary scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone projected, as stratospheric ozone is expected to recover due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.

The impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

2012-08-01

The prospective future adoption of hydrogen to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question whether the adoption would have adverse effects on stratospheric ozone. The possibility of these undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART chemical transport model. Since future growth is highly uncertain we evaluate the impact for two world evolution scenarios, one based on a high emitting scenario (IPCC A1FI) and the other on a low emitting scenario (IPCC B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario the world evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the same world evolution scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two bounding scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone expected as stratospheric ozone recovers due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.

Use of Lagrangian simulations to hindcast the geographical position of propagule release zones in a Mediterranean coastal fish.

PubMed

Calò, Antonio; Lett, Christophe; Mourre, Baptiste; Pérez-Ruzafa, Ángel; García-Charton, José Antonio

2018-03-01

The study of organism dispersal is fundamental for elucidating patterns of connectivity between populations, thus crucial for the design of effective protection and management strategies. This is especially challenging in the case of coastal fish, for which information on egg release zones (i.e. spawning grounds) is often lacking. Here we assessed the putative location of egg release zones of the saddled sea bream (Oblada melanura) along the south-eastern coast of Spain in 2013. To this aim, we hindcasted propagule (egg and larva) dispersal using Lagrangian simulations, fed with species-specific information on early life history traits (ELTs), with two approaches: 1) back-tracking and 2) comparing settler distribution obtained from simulations to the analogous distribution resulting from otolith chemical analysis. Simulations were also used to assess which factors contributed the most to dispersal distances. Back-tracking simulations indicated that both the northern sector of the Murcia region and some traits of the North-African coast were hydrodynamically suitable to generate and drive the supply of larvae recorded along the coast of Murcia in 2013. With the second approach, based on the correlation between simulation outputs and field results (otolith chemical analysis), we found that the oceanographic characteristics of the study area could have determined the pattern of settler distribution recorded with otolith analysis in 2013 and inferred the geographical position of main O. melanura spawning grounds along the coast. Dispersal distance was found to be significantly affected by the geographical position of propagule release zones. The combination of methods used was the first attempt to assess the geographical position of propagule release zones in the Mediterranean Sea for O. melanura, and can represent a valuable approach for elucidating dispersal and connectivity patterns in other coastal species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2016 with BPMPD)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai  Zhu

2016-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) is an economic model of global production, consumption, and trade of forest products. An earlier version of the model is described in Buongiorno et al. (2003). The GFPM 2016 has data and parameters to simulate changes of the forest sector from 2013 to 2030. Buongiorno and Zhu (2015) describe how to use the model for...

Social influence, agent heterogeneity and the emergence of the urban informal sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Díaz, César; Moreno-Monroy, Ana I.

2012-02-01

We develop an agent-based computational model in which the urban informal sector acts as a buffer where rural migrants can earn some income while queuing for higher paying modern-sector jobs. In the model, the informal sector emerges as a result of rural-urban migration decisions of heterogeneous agents subject to social influence in the form of neighboring effects of varying strengths. Besides using a multinomial logit choice model that allows for agent idiosyncrasy, explicit agent heterogeneity is introduced in the form of socio-demographic characteristics preferred by modern-sector employers. We find that different combinations of the strength of social influence and the socio-economic composition of the workforce lead to very different urbanization and urban informal sector shares. In particular, moderate levels of social influence and a large proportion of rural inhabitants with preferred socio-demographic characteristics are conducive to a higher urbanization rate and a larger informal sector.

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Arnell, Nigel W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Raes, Frank; Rapley, Chris; Smith, Mark Stafford; Cramer, Wolfgang; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher P. O.;

A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frieler, K.; Elliott, Joshua; Levermann, A.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Doll, P.;

A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, K.; Levermann, A.; Elliott, J.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Deryng, D.; Döll, P.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A. D.; Gellhorn, C.; Gosling, S. N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Neumann, K.; Oki, T.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A. C.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Stacke, T.; Stehfest, E.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Warszawski, L.; Schewe, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

2015-07-01

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.

Attractiveness of employment sectors for physical therapists in Ontario, Canada (1999-2007): implication for the long term care sector

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Recruiting and retaining health professions remains a high priority for health system planners. Different employment sectors may vary in their appeal to providers. We used the concepts of inflow and stickiness to assess the relative attractiveness of sectors for physical therapists (PTs) in Ontario, Canada. Inflow was defined as the percentage of PTs working in a sector who were not there the previous year. Stickiness was defined as the transition probability that a physical therapist will remain in a given employment sector year-to-year. Methods A longitudinal dataset of registered PTs in Ontario (1999-2007) was created, and primary employment sector was categorized as ‘hospital’, ‘community’, ‘long term care’ (LTC) or ‘other.’ Inflow and stickiness values were then calculated for each sector, and trends were analyzed. Results There were 5003 PTs in 1999, which grew to 6064 by 2007, representing a 21.2% absolute growth. Inflow grew across all sectors, but the LTC sector had the highest inflow of 32.0%. PTs practicing in hospitals had the highest stickiness, with 87.4% of those who worked in this sector remaining year-to-year. The community and other employment sectors had stickiness values of 78.2% and 86.8% respectively, while the LTC sector had the lowest stickiness of 73.4%. Conclusion Among all employment sectors, LTC had highest inflow but lowest stickiness. Given expected increases in demand for services, understanding provider transitional probabilities and employment preferences may provide a useful policy and planning tool in developing a sustainable health human resource base across all employment sectors. PMID:22643111

Unravelling the quality of HIV counselling and testing services in the private and public sectors in Zambia.

PubMed

Ron Levey, Ilana; Wang, Wenjuan

2014-07-01

Despite the substantial investment for providing HIV counselling and testing (VCT) services in Zambia, there has been little effort to systematically evaluate the quality of VCT services provided by various types of health providers. This study, conducted in 2009, examines VCT in the public and private sectors including private for-profit and NGO/faith-based sectors in Copperbelt and Luapula. The study used five primary data collection methods to gauge quality of VCT services: closed-ended client interviews with clients exiting VCT sites; open-ended client interviews; interviews with facility managers; review of service statistics; and an observation of the physical environment for VCT by site. Over 400 clients and 87 facility managers were interviewed from almost 90 facilities. Sites were randomly selected and results are generalizable at the provincial level. The study shows concerning levels of underperformance in VCT services across the sectors. It reveals serious underperformance in counselling about key risk-reduction methods. Less than one-third of clients received counselling on reducing number of sexual partners and only approximately 5% of clients received counselling about disclosing test results to partners. In terms of client profiles, the NGO sector attracts the most educated clients and less educated Zambians seek VCT services at very low rates (7%). The private for-profit performs equally or sometimes better than other sectors even though this sector is not adequately integrated into the Zambian national response to HIV. The private for-profit sector provides VCT services on par in quality with the other sectors. Most clients did not receive counselling on partner reduction or disclosure of HIV test results to partners. In a generalized HIV epidemic where multiple concurrent sexual partners are a significant problem for transmitting the disease, risk-reduction methods and discussion should be a main focus of pre-test and post-test counselling. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

European scale climate information services for water use sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Donnelly, Chantal; Strömbäck, Lena; Capell, René; Ludwig, Fulco

2015-09-01

This study demonstrates a climate information service for pan-European water use sectors that are vulnerable to climate change induced hydrological changes, including risk and safety (disaster preparedness), agriculture, energy (hydropower and cooling water use for thermoelectric power) and environment (water quality). To study the climate change impacts we used two different hydrological models forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected general circulation model (GCM) output for both the lowest (2.6) and highest (8.5) representative concentration pathways (RCP). Selected indicators of water related vulnerability for each sector were then calculated from the hydrological model results. Our results show a distinct north-south divide in terms of climate change impacts; in the south the water availability will reduce while in the north water availability will increase. Across different climate models precipitation and streamflow increase in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe, but the latitude at which this change occurs varies depending on the GCM. Hydrological extremes are increasing over large parts of Europe. The agricultural sector will be affected by reduced water availability (in the south) and increased drought. Both streamflow and soil moistures droughts are projected to increase in most parts of Europe except in northern Scandinavia and the Alps. The energy sector will be affected by lower hydropower potential in most European countries and reduced cooling water availability due to higher water temperatures and reduced summer river flows. Our results show that in particular in the Mediterranean the pressures are high because of increasing drought which will have large impacts on both the agriculture and energy sectors. In France and Italy this is combined with increased flood hazards. Our results show important impacts of climate change on European water use sectors indicating a clear need for adaptation.

FDI technology spillover and threshold effect of the technology gap: regional differences in the Chinese industrial sector.

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Liu, Huifang; Cao, Zhiyong; Wang, Bowen

2016-01-01

This paper presents a new perspective that there is a double-threshold effect in terms of the technology gap existing in the foreign direct investment (FDI) technology spillover process in different regional Chinese industrial sectors. In this paper, a double-threshold regression model was established to examine the relation between the threshold effect of the technology gap and technology spillover. Based on the provincial panel data of Chinese industrial sectors from 2000 to 2011, the empirical results reveal that there are two threshold values, which are 1.254 and 2.163, in terms of the technology gap in the industrial sector in eastern China. There are also two threshold values in both the central and western industrial sector, which are 1.516, 2.694 and 1.635, 2.714, respectively. The technology spillover is a decreasing function of the technology gap in both the eastern and western industrial sectors, but a concave curve function of the technology gap is in the central industrial sectors. Furthermore, the FDI technology spillover has increased gradually in recent years. Based on the empirical results, suggestions were proposed to elucidate the introduction of the FDI and the improvement in the industrial added value in different regions of China.

Stress field forming of sector array transducers for vibro-acoustography.

PubMed

Silva, Glauber T; Chen, Shigao; Frery, Alejandro C; Greenleaf, James F; Fatemi, Mostafa

2005-11-01

This paper presents a study of the stress field forming of sector array transducers for vibro-acoustography applications. The system point-spread function (PSF) is given in terms of the dynamic radiation stress exerted on a point target by a dual ultrasound beam with slightly different frequencies. The radiation stress is calculated by assuming that the resulting ultrasound beam is a plane wave. The stress is proportional to the product of the velocity potential of each incident ultrasound beam. The beamforming and stress field forming of sector array transducers are analyzed through linear acoustics. An expression for the velocity potential produced by sector array transducers is derived. The vibro-acoustography PSF is evaluated numerically. A comparison between the PSF of a sector array and a confocal transducers is presented. The compared characteristics of the PSF are sidelobe levels, transverse, and in-depth spatial resolution. Indeed, one motivation to study sector transducers is the fact the depth-of-field of these transducers should be smaller than that of same size confocal transducers. An experimental setup was used to validate the theoretical PSF of sector array transducers. Results show that the measured PSF is in good agreement with the theoretical predications. Vibro-acoustography images of a breast-phantom by both transducers are presented and discussed.

Initial Evaluation of a Conflict Detection Tool in the Terminal Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verma Savita Arora; Tang, Huabin; Ballinger, Deborah S.; Kozon, Thomas E.; Farrahi, Amir Hossein

2012-01-01

Despite the recent economic recession and its adverse impact on air travel, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) continues to forecast an increase in air traffic demand that may see traffic double or triple by the year 2025. Increases in air traffic will burden the air traffic management system, and higher levels of safety and efficiency will be required. The air traffic controllers primary task is to ensure separation between aircraft in their airspace and keep the skies safe. As air traffic is forecasted to increase in volume and complexity [1], there is an increased likelihood of conflicts between aircraft, which adds risk and inefficiency to air traffic management and increases controller workload. To attenuate these factors, recent ATM research has shown that air and ground-based automation tools could reduce controller workload, especially if the automation is focused on conflict detection and resolution. Conflict Alert is a short time horizon conflict detection tool deployed in the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON), which has limited utility due to the high number of false alerts generated and its use of dead reckoning to predict loss of separation between aircraft. Terminal Tactical Separation Assurance Flight Environment (T-TSAFE) is a short time horizon conflict detection tool that uses both flight intent and dead reckoning to detect conflicts. Results of a fast time simulation experiment indicated that TTSAFE provided a more effective alert lead-time and generated less false alerts than Conflict Alert [2]. TSAFE was previously tested in a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) simulation study that focused on the en route phase of flight [3]. The current study tested the T-TSAFE tool in an HITL simulation study, focusing on the terminal environment with current day operations. The study identified procedures, roles, responsibilities, information requirements and usability, with the help of TRACON controllers who participated in the experiment. Metrics such as lead alert time, alert response time, workload, situation awareness and other measures were statistically analyzed. These metrics were examined from an overall perspective and comparisons between conditions (altitude resolutions via keyboard entry vs. ADS-B entry) and controller positions (two final approach sectors and two feeder sectors) were also examined. Results of these analyses and controller feedback provided evidence of T-TSAFE s potential promise as a useful air traffic controller tool. Heuristic analysis also provided information on ways in which the T-TSAFE tool can be improved. Details of analyses results will be presented in the full paper.

Corporate governance of public health services: lessons from New Zealand for the state sector.

PubMed

Perkins, R; Barnett, P; Powell, M

2000-01-01

New Zealand public hospitals and related services were grouped into 23 Crown Health Enterprises and registered as companies in 1993. Integral to this change was the introduction of corporate governance. New directors, largely from the business sector, were appointed to govern these organisations as efficient and effective businesses. This article presents the results of a survey of directors of New Zealand publicly-owned health provider organisations. Although directors thought they performed well in business systems development, they acknowledged their shortcomings in meeting government expectations in respect to financial performance and social responsibility. Changes in public health sector provider performance indicators have resulted in a mixed report card for the sector six years after corporate governance was instituted.

Balancing exploration, uncertainty and computational demands in many objective reservoir optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zatarain Salazar, Jazmin; Reed, Patrick M.; Quinn, Julianne D.; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2017-11-01

Reservoir operations are central to our ability to manage river basin systems serving conflicting multi-sectoral demands under increasingly uncertain futures. These challenges motivate the need for new solution strategies capable of effectively and efficiently discovering the multi-sectoral tradeoffs that are inherent to alternative reservoir operation policies. Evolutionary many-objective direct policy search (EMODPS) is gaining importance in this context due to its capability of addressing multiple objectives and its flexibility in incorporating multiple sources of uncertainties. This simulation-optimization framework has high potential for addressing the complexities of water resources management, and it can benefit from current advances in parallel computing and meta-heuristics. This study contributes a diagnostic assessment of state-of-the-art parallel strategies for the auto-adaptive Borg Multi Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA) to support EMODPS. Our analysis focuses on the Lower Susquehanna River Basin (LSRB) system where multiple sectoral demands from hydropower production, urban water supply, recreation and environmental flows need to be balanced. Using EMODPS with different parallel configurations of the Borg MOEA, we optimize operating policies over different size ensembles of synthetic streamflows and evaporation rates. As we increase the ensemble size, we increase the statistical fidelity of our objective function evaluations at the cost of higher computational demands. This study demonstrates how to overcome the mathematical and computational barriers associated with capturing uncertainties in stochastic multiobjective reservoir control optimization, where parallel algorithmic search serves to reduce the wall-clock time in discovering high quality representations of key operational tradeoffs. Our results show that emerging self-adaptive parallelization schemes exploiting cooperative search populations are crucial. Such strategies provide a promising new set of tools for effectively balancing exploration, uncertainty, and computational demands when using EMODPS.

Geomorphology applied to landscape analysis for planning and management of natural spaces. Case study: Las Batuecas-S. de Francia and Quilamas natural parks, (Salamanca, Spain).

PubMed

Martínez-Graña, A M; Silva, P G; Goy, J L; Elez, J; Valdés, V; Zazo, C

2017-04-15

Geomorphology is fundamental to landscape analysis, as it represents the main parameter that determines the land spatial configuration and facilitates reliefs classification. The goal of this article is the elaboration of thematic maps that enable the determination of different landscape units and elaboration of quality and vulnerability synthetic maps for landscape fragility assessment prior to planning human activities. For two natural spaces, the final synthetic maps were created with direct (visual-perceptual features) and indirect (cartographic models and 3D simulations) methods from thematic maps with GIS technique. This enabled the creation of intrinsic and extrinsic landscape quality maps showing sectors needing most preservation, as well as intrinsic and extrinsic landscape fragility maps (environment response capacity or vulnerability towards human actions). The resulting map shows absorption capacity for areas of maximum and/or minimum human intervention. Sectors of high absorption capacity (minimum need for preservation) are found where the incidence of human intervention is minimum: escarpment bottoms, fitted rivers, sinuous high lands with thick vegetation coverage and valley interiors, or those areas with high landscape quality, low fragility and high absorption capacity, whose average values are found across lower hillsides of some valleys, and sectors with low absorption capacity (areas needing most preservation) found mainly in the inner parts of natural spaces: peaks and upper hillsides, synclines flanks and scattered areas. For the integral analysis of landscape, a mapping methodology has been set. It comprises a valid criterion for rational and sustainable planning, management and protection of natural spaces. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interconnectedness and interdependencies of critical infrastructures in the US economy: Implications for resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chopra, Shauhrat S.; Khanna, Vikas

2015-10-01

Natural disasters in 2011 yielded close to 55 billion in economic damages alone in the United States (US), which highlights the need to reduce impacts of such disasters or other deliberate attacks. The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) identifies a list of 16 Critical Infrastructure Sectors (CIS) whose incapacity due to disruptions would have a debilitating impact on the nation's economy. The goal of this work is to understand the implications of interdependencies among CIS on the resilience of the US economic system as a whole. We develop a framework that combines the empirical economic input-output (EIO) model with graph theory based techniques for understanding interdependencies, interconnectedness and resilience in the US economic system. By representing the US economy as a network, we are able to analyze its topology by separately looking at its unweighted and weighted forms. Topological analysis of the US EIO network suggests that it exhibits small world properties for the unweighted case, and in the weighted case, the throughput of industry sectors follows a power-law with an exponential cutoff. Implications of these topological properties are discussed in the paper. We also simulate hypothetical disruptions on CIS in order to identify industrial sectors that experience the largest economic impacts, and to quantify systemic vulnerability in economic terms. In addition, insights from community detection and hypothetical disruption scenarios help assess vulnerability of individual industrial communities to disruptions on individual CIS. These methodologies also provide insights regarding the extent of coupling between each CIS in the US EIO network. Based on our analysis, we observe that excessive interconnectedness and interdependencies of CIS results in high systemic vulnerability. This information can guide policymakers to design policies that improve resilience of economic networks, and evaluate policies that might indirectly increase coupling between CIS.

Dark sector impact on gravitational collapse of an electrically charged scalar field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakonieczna, Anna; Rogatko, Marek; Nakonieczny, Łukasz

2015-11-01

Dark matter and dark energy are dominating components of the Universe. Their presence affects the course and results of processes, which are driven by the gravitational interaction. The objective of the paper was to examine the influence of the dark sector on the gravitational collapse of an electrically charged scalar field. A phantom scalar field was used as a model of dark energy in the system. Dark matter was modeled by a complex scalar field with a quartic potential, charged under a U(1)-gauge field. The dark components were coupled to the electrically charged scalar field via the exponential coupling and the gauge field-Maxwell field kinetic mixing, respectively. Complete non-linear simulations of the investigated process were performed. They were conducted from regular initial data to the end state, which was the matter dispersal or a singularity formation in a spacetime. During the collapse in the presence of dark energy dynamical wormholes and naked singularities were formed in emerging spacetimes. The wormhole throats were stabilized by the violation of the null energy condition, which occurred due to a significant increase of a value of the phantom scalar field function in its vicinity. The square of mass parameter of the dark matter scalar field potential controlled the formation of a Cauchy horizon or wormhole throats in the spacetime. The joint impact of dark energy and dark matter on the examined process indicated that the former decides what type of an object forms, while the latter controls the amount of time needed for the object to form. Additionally, the dark sector suppresses the natural tendency of an electrically charged scalar field to form a dynamical Reissner-Nordström spacetime during the gravitational collapse.

Projections of health care expenditures as a share of the GDP: actuarial and macroeconomic approaches.

PubMed Central

Warshawsky, M J

1994-01-01

STUDY QUESTION. Can the steady increases in health care expenditures as a share of GDP projected by widely cited actuarial models be rationalized by a macroeconomic model with sensible parameters and specification? DATA SOURCES. National Income and Product Accounts, and Social Security and Health Care Financing Administration are the data sources used in parameters estimates. STUDY DESIGN. Health care expenditures as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) are projected using two methodological approaches--actuarial and macroeconomic--and under various assumptions. The general equilibrium macroeconomic approach has the advantage of allowing an investigation of the causes of growth in the health care sector and its consequences for the overall economy. DATA COLLECTION METHODS. Simulations are used. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Both models unanimously project a continued increase in the ratio of health care expenditures to GDP. Under the most conservative assumptions, that is, robust economic growth, improved demographic trends, or a significant moderation in the rate of health care price inflation, the health care sector will consume more than a quarter of national output by 2065. Under other (perhaps more realistic) assumptions, including a continuation of current trends, both approaches predict that health care expenditures will comprise between a third and a half of national output. In the macroeconomic model, the increasing use of capital goods in the health care sector explains the observed rise in relative prices. Moreover, this "capital deepening" implies that a relatively modest fraction of the labor force is employed in health care and that the rest of the economy is increasingly starved for capital, resulting in a declining standard of living. PMID:8063567

Wind-Driven Natural Ventilation Design Of Walk-Up Apartment In Coastal Region North Jakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugrahanti, Fathina I.; Yasin, P. E.; Nurdini, A.

2018-05-01

Housing has been the second most energy-consuming sector in Indonesia nowadays. According to the data released by government, the biggest consumption in housing sector is the use of air conditioning. This consumption will significantly rise in metropolitan-high density city like Jakarta along with the increase of vertical housing supply. This research focus on design iteration to achieve optimum model of wind-driven naturally ventilated housing. Cilincing District, North Jakarta, known as industrial and settlement area is used as case study. Since the location by the bay area, Cilincing represents the characteristic of tropical coastal area. This research utilizes the tropical coastal characteristic especially wind to design a naturally ventilated housing. Various building elements are determined as variables and tested using Ansys Fluent CFD simulator to achieve thermal comfort stadard by SNI 03-6572-2001. Preliminary results shows that unlinear (zig-zag) building layout and combination of various building distances give big impact to airflow movement around the buildings. Narrowing building distance in the middle of the site can create a kind-of tunnel / trap that strengthen the wind along the site. Inlet and outlet area should be balance to avoid uneven airflow distribution inside the room and located in different level to maximize cross-ventilation.

Smart LED allocation scheme for efficient multiuser visible light communication networks.

PubMed

Sewaiwar, Atul; Tiwari, Samrat Vikramaditya; Chung, Yeon Ho

2015-05-18

In a multiuser bidirectional visible light communication (VLC), a large number of LEDs or an LED array needs to be allocated in an efficient manner to ensure sustainable data rate and link quality. Moreover, in order to support an increasing or decreasing number of users in the network, the LED allocation is required to be performed dynamically. In this paper, a novel smart LED allocation scheme for efficient multiuser VLC networks is presented. The proposed scheme allocates RGB LEDs to multiple users in a dynamic and efficient fashion, while satisfying illumination requirements in an indoor environment. The smart LED array comprised of RGB LEDs is divided into sectors according to the location of the users. The allocated sectors then provide optical power concentration toward the users for efficient and reliable data transmission. An algorithm for the dynamic allocation of the LEDs is also presented. To verify its effective resource allocation feature of the proposed scheme, simulations were performed. It is found that the proposed smart LED allocation scheme provides the effect of optical beamforming toward individual users, thereby increasing the collective power concentration of the optical signals on the desirable users and resulting in significantly increased data rate, while ensuring sufficient illumination in a multiuser VLC environment.

To Investigate the Influence of Building Envelope and Natural Ventilation on Thermal Heat Balance in Office Buildings in Warm and Humid Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kini, Pradeep G.; Garg, Naresh Kumar; Kamath, Kiran

2017-07-01

India’s commercial building sector is witnessing robust growth. India continues to be a key growth market among global corporates and this is reflective in the steady growth in demand for prime office space. A recent trend that has been noted is the increase in demand for office spaces not just in major cities but also in smaller tier II and Tier III cities. Growth in the commercial building sector projects a rising trend of energy intensive mechanical systems in office buildings in India. The air conditioning market in India is growing at 25% annually. This is due to the ever increasing demand to maintain thermal comfort in tropical regions. Air conditioning is one of the most energy intensive technologies which are used in buildings. As a result India is witnessing significant spike in energy demand and further widening the demand supply gap. Challenge in India is to identify passive measures in building envelope design in office buildings to reduce the cooling loads and conserve energy. This paper investigates the overall heat gain through building envelope components and natural ventilation in warm and humid climate region through experimental and simulation methods towards improved thermal environmental performance.

Investigating the Impact of Off-Nominal Events on High-Density "Green" Arrivals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callatine, Todd J.; Cabrall, Christopher; Kupfer, Michael; Martin, Lynne; Mercer, Joey; Palmer, Everett A.

2012-01-01

Trajectory-based controller tools developed to support a schedule-based terminal-area air traffic management (ATM) concept have been shown effective for enabling green arrivals along Area Navigation (RNAV) routes in moderately high-density traffic conditions. A recent human-in-the-loop simulation investigated the robustness of the concept and tools to off-nominal events events that lead to situations in which runway arrival schedules require adjustments and controllers can no longer use speed control alone to impose the necessary delays. Study participants included a terminal-area Traffic Management Supervisor responsible for adjusting the schedules. Sector-controller participants could issue alternate RNAV transition routes to absorb large delays. The study also included real-time winds/wind-forecast changes. The results indicate that arrival spacing accuracy, schedule conformance, and tool usage and usefulness are similar to that observed in simulations of nominal operations. However, the time and effort required to recover from an off-nominal event is highly context-sensitive, and impacted by the required schedule adjustments and control methods available for managing the evolving situation. The research suggests ways to bolster the off-nominal recovery process, and highlights challenges related to using human-in-the-loop simulation to investigate the safety and robustness of advanced ATM concepts.

Performance of Sustainable Fly Ash and Slag Cement Mortars Exposed to Simulated and Real In Situ Mediterranean Conditions along 90 Warm Season Days.

PubMed

Ortega, José Marcos; Esteban, María Dolores; Sánchez, Isidro; Climent, Miguel Ángel

2017-10-31

Nowadays, cement manufacture is one of the most polluting worldwide industrial sectors. In order to reduce its CO₂ emissions, the clinker replacement by ground granulated blast-furnace slag and fly ash is becoming increasingly common. Both additions are well-studied when the hardening conditions of cementitious materials are optimum. Therefore, the main objective of this research was to study the short-term effects of exposure, to both laboratory simulated and real in situ Mediterranean climate environments, on the microstructure and durability-related properties of mortars made using commercial slag and fly ash cements, as well as ordinary Portland cement. The real in situ condition consisted of placing the samples at approximately 100 m away from the Mediterranean Sea. The microstructure was analysed using mercury intrusion porosimetry. The effective porosity, the capillary suction coefficient and the non-steady state chloride migration coefficient were also studied. In view of the results obtained, the non-optimum laboratory simulated Mediterranean environment was a good approach to the real in situ one. Finally, mortars prepared using sustainable cements with slag and fly ash exposed to both Mediterranean climate environments, showed adequate service properties in the short-term (90 days), similar to or even better than those in mortars made with ordinary Portland cement.

Wear of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene against damaged and undamaged stainless steel and diamond-like carbon-coated counterfaces.

PubMed

Firkins, P; Hailey, J L; Fisher, J; Lettington, A H; Butter, R

1998-10-01

The wear of ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) in artificial joints and the resulting wear debris-induced osteolysis remains a major clinical concern in the orthopaedic sector. Third-body damage of metallic femoral heads is often cited as a cause of accelerated polyethylene wear, and the use of ceramic femoral heads in the hip is gaining increasing favour. In the knee prostheses and for smaller diameter femoral heads, the application of hard surface coatings, such as diamond-like carbon, is receiving considerable attention. However, to date, there has been little or no investigation of the tribology of these coatings in simulated biological environments. In this study, diamond-like carbon (DLC) has been compared to stainless steel in its undamaged form and following simulated third-body damage. The wear of UHMWPE was found to be similar when sliding against undamaged DLC and stainless steel counterfaces. DLC was found to be much more damage resistant than DLC. Under test conditions that simulate third-body damage to the femoral head, the wear of UHMWPE was seven times lower against DLC than against stainless steel (P < 0.05). The study shows DLC has considerable potential as a femoral bearing surface in artificial joints.

Patterns of tropical Pacific convection anomalies and associated extratropical wave trains in AMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Shuoyi; Chen, Wen; Graf, Hans-F.; Guo, Yuanyuan

2018-05-01

In this paper, the performance of 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models forced by observational SSTs in simulating the tropical Pacific convective variation and the atmospheric responses in the extratropics are assessed. The multi-model ensemble mean results of 18 CMIP5 models show that five major patterns of tropical Pacific convection anomaly in winter can indeed be well reproduced, however, the simulation of the corresponding extratropical responses for each pattern exists some deficiency except for the La Niña pattern compared with observations. We defined an optimized subset of well performing models (ACCESS1.0, CanAM4, CCSM4, CMCC-CM, HadGEM2-A, MPI-ESM-MR) in tropical Pacific deep convection according to the ranking of model skill score. These models exhibit approximately identical convection anomaly patterns in both amplitude and spatial structure to the observation, which potentially might improve the representation of extratropical teleconnections with the tropical Pacific, especially for the CP El Niño (CPEN), EP El Niño (EPEN) and western CP (W-CP) patterns. Both evident atmospheric anomalies of CPEN and EPEN patterns over the NA/E sector and the northeastward propagating wave trains of W-CP pattern can be quite well simulated in the high-skilled models.

Chilly dark sectors and asymmetric reheating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adshead, Peter; Cui, Yanou; Shelton, Jessie

2016-06-01

In a broad class of theories, the relic abundance of dark matter is determined by interactions internal to a thermalized dark sector, with no direct involvement of the Standard Model (SM). We point out that these theories raise an immediate cosmological question: how was the dark sector initially populated in the early universe? Motivated in part by the difficulty of accommodating large amounts of entropy carried in dark radiation with cosmic microwave background measurements of the effective number of relativistic species at recombination, N eff , we aim to establish which admissible cosmological histories can populate a thermal dark sector that never reaches thermal equilibrium with the SM. The minimal cosmological origin for such a dark sector is asymmetric reheating, when the same mechanism that populates the SM in the early universe also populates the dark sector at a lower temperature. Here we demonstrate that the resulting inevitable inflaton-mediated scattering between the dark sector and the SM can wash out a would-be temperature asymmetry, and establish the regions of parameter space where temperature asymmetries can be generated in minimal reheating scenarios. Thus obtaining a temperature asymmetry of a given size either restricts possible inflaton masses and couplings or necessitates a non-minimal cosmology for one or both sectors. As a side benefit, we develop techniques for evaluating collision terms in the relativistic Boltzmann equation when the full dependence on Bose-Einstein or Fermi-Dirac phase space distributions must be retained, and present several new results on relativistic thermal averages in an appendix.

A risk-based framework to assess long-term effects of policy and water supply changes on water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia

2015-04-01

Climate uncertainty can affect water resources availability and management decisions. Sustainable water resources management therefore requires evaluation of policy and management decisions under a wide range of possible future water supply conditions. This study proposes a risk-based framework to integrate water supply uncertainty into a forward-looking decision making context. To apply this framework, a stochastic reconstruction scheme is used to generate a large ensemble of flow series. For the Rocky Mountain basins considered here, two key characteristics of the annual hydrograph are its annual flow volume and the timing of the seasonal flood peak. These are perturbed to represent natural randomness and potential changes due to future climate. 30-year series of perturbed flows are used as input to the SWAMP model - an integrated water resources model that simulates regional water supply-demand system and estimates economic productivity of water and other sustainability indicators, including system vulnerability and resilience. The simulation results are used to construct 2D-maps of net revenue of a particular water sector; e.g., hydropower, or for all sectors combined. Each map cell represents a risk scenario of net revenue based on a particular annual flow volume, timing of the peak flow, and 200 stochastic realizations of flow series. This framework is demonstrated for a water resources system in the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Critical historical drought sequences, derived from tree-ring reconstructions of several hundred years of annual river flows, are used to evaluate the system's performance (net revenue risk) under extremely low flow conditions and also to locate them on the previously produced 2D risk maps. This simulation and analysis framework is repeated under various reservoir operation strategies (e.g., maximizing flood protection or maximizing water supply security); development proposals, such as irrigation expansion; and change in energy prices. Such risk-based analysis demonstrates relative reduction/increase of risk associated with management and policy decisions and allow decision makers to explore the relative importance of policy versus natural water supply change in a water resources system.

Water-Energy Nexus: Examining The Crucial Connection Through Simulation Based Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erfani, T.; Tan, C. C.

2014-12-01

With a growing urbanisation and the emergence of climate change, the world is facing a more water constrained future. This phenomenon will have direct impacts on the resilience and performance of energy sector as water is playing a key role in electricity generation processes. As energy is becoming a thirstier resource and the pressure on finite water sources is increasing, modelling and analysing this closely interlinked and interdependent loop, called 'water-energy nexus' is becoming an important cross-disciplinary challenge. Conflict often arises in transboundary river where several countries share the same source of water to be used in productive sectors for economic growth. From the perspective of the upstream users, it would be ideal to store the water for hydropower generation and protect the city against drought whereas the downstream users need the supply of water for growth. This research use the case study on the transboundary Blue Nile River basin located in the Middle East where the Ethiopian government decided to invest on building a new dam to store the water and generate hydropower. This leads to an opposition by downstream users as they believe that the introduction of the dam would reduce the amount of water available downstream. This calls for a compromise management where the reservoir operating rules need to be derived considering the interdependencies between the resources available and the requirements proposed by all users. For this, we link multiobjective optimization algorithm to water-energy use simulation model to achieve effective management of the transboundary reservoir operating strategies. The objective functions aim to attain social and economic welfare by minimizing the deficit of water supply and maximizing the hydropower generation. The study helps to improve the policies by understanding the value of water and energy in their alternative uses. The results show how different optimal reservoir release rules generate different trade-off solutions inherently involved in upstream and downstream users requirements and decisions. This study stimulates the research in this context by using simulation based optimization techniques to manage for security for food, water and energy generation, which leads to improve sustainability and long-term political stability.

Climate Variability In The Euro-atlantic Sector As Simulated By Echam4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menezes, I.; Corte-Real, J.; Ramos, A.; Conde, F.

The atmosphere is a fundamental component of the climate system and its influence in local and global climates results from its composition, structure and motion. The best available tools to simulate future climates are coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), ECHAM4 (T42 L19)[1] being a very relevant exam- ple of such a model due to its elaborated parametrizations of physical processes. The purpose of this work is twofold : (1) to assess the ability of ECHAM4 in reproducing the reference climate of 1961-1990, over the Euro-Atlantic sector (29N-71N; 67W- 59E) in terms of mean sea level pressure, surface temperature and total precipitation; (2) to evaluate the expected changes of the same climate elements in a warmer world. To attain the first goal the ECHAMSs control run output is compared with observed data obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU data set)[2-5]; to achieve the second objective, the modelSs control run is compared with its transient run forced by greenhouse gases. In both cases, comparisons are made in terms of mean values, variability in space and time and extremes. References [1] E. Roeckner, K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, M. Christoph, M. Claussen, L. Dümenil, M. Esch, M. Giorgetta, U. Schlese, and U. Schulzweida, 1996: The atmospheric gen- eral circulation model ECHAM4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Report No. 218, Hamburg, Germany, 90 pp. [2] M. Hulme, D. Conway, P.D. Jones, T. Jiang, E.M. Barrow, and C. Turney (1995), Construction of a 1961-90 European climatology for climate change impacts and mod- elling applications, Int. J. Climatol., 15, 1333-1363. [3] M. Hulme (1994), The cost of climate data U a European experience, Weather, 49, 168-175. [4] M. Hulme, and M.G. New (1997), Dependence of large-scale precipitation clima- tologies on temporal and spatial sampling, J. Climate, 10, 1099-1113. 1 [5] C.J. Willmot, S.M. Robeson and M.J. Janis (1996), Comparison of approaches for estimating time-averaged precipitation using data from the United States, Int. J. Cli- matol., 16, 1103-1115. 2

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling environment.

The effect of real-time pricing on load shifting in a highly renewable power system dominated by generation from the renewable sources of wind and photovoltaics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kies, Alexander; Brown, Tom; Schlachtberger, David; Schramm, Stefan

2017-04-01

The supply-demand imbalance is a major concern in the presence of large shares of highly variable renewable generation from sources like wind and photovoltaics (PV) in power systems. Other than the measures on the generation side, such as flexible backup generation or energy storage, sector coupling or demand side management are the most likely option to counter imbalances, therefore to ease the integration of renewable generation. Demand side management usually refers to load shifting, which comprises the reaction of electricity consumers to price fluctuations. In this work, we derive a novel methodology to model the interplay of load shifting and provided incentives via real-time pricing in highly renewable power systems. We use weather data to simulate generation from the renewable sources of wind and photovoltaics, as well as historical load data, split into different consumption categories, such as, heating, cooling, domestic, etc., to model a simplified power system. Together with renewable power forecast data, a simple market model and approaches to incorporate sector coupling [1] and load shifting [2,3], we model the interplay of incentives and load shifting for different scenarios (e.g., in dependency of the risk-aversion of consumers or the forecast horizon) and demonstrate the practical benefits of load shifting. First, we introduce the novel methodology and compare it with existing approaches. Secondly, we show results of numerical simulations on the effects of load shifting: It supports the integration of PV power by providing a storage, which characteristics can be described as "daily" and provides a significant amount of balancing potential. Lastly, we propose an experimental setup to obtain empirical data on end-consumer load-shifting behaviour in response to price incentives. References [1] Brown, T., Schlachtberger, D., Kies. A., Greiner, M., Sector coupling in a highly renewable European energy system, Proc. of the 15th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants, Vienna, Austria, 15.-17. November 2016 [2] Kleinhans, D.: Towards a systematic characterization of the potential of demand side management, arXiv preprint arXiv:1401.4121, 2014 [3] Kies, A., Schyska, B. U., von Bremen, L., The Demand Side Management Potential to Balance a Highly Renewable European Power System. Energies, 9(11), 955, 2016

Public sector reform and demand for human resources for health (HRH).

PubMed

Lethbridge, Jane

2004-11-23

This article considers some of the effects of health sector reform on human resources for health (HRH) in developing countries and countries in transition by examining the effect of fiscal reform and the introduction of decentralisation and market mechanisms to the health sector.Fiscal reform results in pressure to measure the staff outputs of the health sector. Financial decentralisation often leads to hospitals becoming "corporatised" institutions, operating with business principles but remaining in the public sector. The introduction of market mechanisms often involves the formation of an internal market within the health sector and market testing of different functions with the private sector. This has immediate implications for the employment of health workers in the public sector, because the public sector may reduce its workforce if services are purchased from other sectors or may introduce more short-term and temporary employment contracts.Decentralisation of budgets and administrative functions can affect the health sector, often in negative ways, by reducing resources available and confusing lines of accountability for health workers. Governance and regulation of health care, when delivered by both public and private providers, require new systems of regulation.The increase in private sector provision has led health workers to move to the private sector. For those remaining in the public sector, there are often worsening working conditions, a lack of employment security and dismantling of collective bargaining agreements.Human resource development is gradually being recognised as crucial to future reforms and the formulation of health policy. New information systems at local and regional level will be needed to collect data on human resources. New employment arrangements, strengthening organisational culture, training and continuing education will also be needed.

Cement bond evaluation method in horizontal wells using segmented bond tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Ruolong; He, Li

2018-06-01

Most of the existing cement evaluation technologies suffer from tool eccentralization due to gravity in highly deviated wells and horizontal wells. This paper proposes a correction method to lessen the effects of tool eccentralization on evaluation results of cement bond using segmented bond tool, which has an omnidirectional sonic transmitter and eight segmented receivers evenly arranged around the tool 2 ft from the transmitter. Using 3-D finite difference parallel numerical simulation method, we investigate the logging responses of centred and eccentred segmented bond tool in a variety of bond conditions. From the numerical results, we find that the tool eccentricity and channel azimuth can be estimated from measured sector amplitude. The average of the sector amplitude when the tool is eccentred can be corrected to the one when the tool is centred. Then the corrected amplitude will be used to calculate the channel size. The proposed method is applied to both synthetic and field data. For synthetic data, it turns out that this method can estimate the tool eccentricity with small error and the bond map is improved after correction. For field data, the tool eccentricity has a good agreement with the measured well deviation angle. Though this method still suffers from the low accuracy of calculating channel azimuth, the credibility of corrected bond map is improved especially in horizontal wells. It gives us a choice to evaluate the bond condition for horizontal wells using existing logging tool. The numerical results in this paper can provide aids for understanding measurements of segmented tool in both vertical and horizontal wells.

[Work and mental health: risk groups].

PubMed

Vézina, M; Gingras, S

1996-01-01

Analysis of the Quebec Health survey identified those Quebec industrial sectors and professions in which workers are at risk of higher psychological distress and lower psychological well-being. Risk levels were measured by odds ratio, controlling for: health status, sex, social support and stressful life events. Results show that those at risk are blue collar workers and less qualified workers of traditional sectors. Lower job latitude could explain those results. Results show that risk of mental health problems is significantly higher in the following industrial sectors: leather, chemicals, paint and varnish industries; urban bus transport and taxi; shoe, clothing and textile retail stores; department stores; restaurant services; insurance and public administration (excluding defence). Risk of mental health problems is higher in the following professions road transport (excluding truck drivers); textile, leather, fur manufacturing and repairing; housekeeping and maintenance; painters, tapestry-workers, insulation and waterproofing, food and beverages sector; data processors; editors and university professors.

Unstructured LES of Reacting Multiphase Flows in Realistic Gas Turbine Combustors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ham, Frank; Apte, Sourabh; Iaccarino, Gianluca; Wu, Xiao-Hua; Herrmann, Marcus; Constantinescu, George; Mahesh, Krishnan; Moin, Parviz

2003-01-01

As part of the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) program, an accurate and robust simulation tool is being developed to perform high-fidelity LES studies of multiphase, multiscale turbulent reacting flows in aircraft gas turbine combustor configurations using hybrid unstructured grids. In the combustor, pressurized gas from the upstream compressor is reacted with atomized liquid fuel to produce the combustion products that drive the downstream turbine. The Large Eddy Simulation (LES) approach is used to simulate the combustor because of its demonstrated superiority over RANS in predicting turbulent mixing, which is central to combustion. This paper summarizes the accomplishments of the combustor group over the past year, concentrating mainly on the two major milestones achieved this year: 1) Large scale simulation: A major rewrite and redesign of the flagship unstructured LES code has allowed the group to perform large eddy simulations of the complete combustor geometry (all 18 injectors) with over 100 million control volumes; 2) Multi-physics simulation in complex geometry: The first multi-physics simulations including fuel spray breakup, coalescence, evaporation, and combustion are now being performed in a single periodic sector (1/18th) of an actual Pratt & Whitney combustor geometry.

A comparative study of three pillars system and banking methods in accounting long-term purposes of retiree in Indonesian saving account

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasbullah, E. S.; Suyudi, M.; Halim, N. A.; Sukono; Gustaf, F.; Putra, A. S.

2018-03-01

Human productivity is the main capital in economic activity. This main factor leads to the fact that the continuity of human resources in economic sector depends on the limited productivity age. In other word, once the economic agents has reach the limit of the productivity age. Hence they enter the pension state. In this case, the preparation of ‘old-age’ fund become crucial and should be initiated before the pension state to avoid the destitute condition of retiree. Two most simple and familiar methods in preparing the pension fund are The Three Pillars system and banking methods. Here we simulate the both of the methods for the synthetic data of investment program and analyse the result. The result gives the idea that the Three Pillar System has effective prospect in Long-term scheme. However, the banking method is likely adapted to the short-term plan.

Transition to an aging Japan: public pension, savings, and capital taxation.

PubMed

Kato, R

1998-09-01

This study examined options for compensating for the shortages of money for public pensions due to population aging in Japan: increases in pension contributions, consumption pension taxes, interest income pension taxes, and inheritance pension taxes. The analysis relied on simulation in an expanded life cycle growth model. Data were obtained from 1992 estimations of population by the Institute of Population Problems of the Ministry of Health and Welfare. This study is unique in its use of real population data for the simulations and in its use of transition states. The analysis begins with a description of the altered Overlapping Generations Model by Auerback and Kotlikoff (1983). The model accounts for the inaccuracy of lifetime and liquidity constraints and ordinary budget constraints and reproduces the consumption-savings profiles of older people and incorporates wage income taxation and other forms of taxation. Income includes wage and interest income. The analysis includes a description of the method of simulation, assumptions, and evaluation of the effects of population aging. It is assumed that narrower government sector spending on general expenditures per worker will increase by 1% every year. It is concluded that national saving rates will probably decrease due to population aging. The lowest levels of capital stock and savings will result from higher pension contributions. The highest level of capital stock will result from higher consumption pension taxes during 1990-2015. Preferred policies should focus on increasing interest income rates.