Sample records for security econometrics system

  1. A Systematic Comprehensive Computational Model for Stake Estimation in Mission Assurance: Applying Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Grimaila, Michael R

    2010-01-01

    In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we discuss how this infrastructure can be used in the subject domain of mission assurance as defined as the full life-cycle engineering process to identify and mitigate design, production, test, and field support deficiencies of mission success. We address the opportunity to apply the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Carnegie Mellon University and Software Engineering Institute s Mission Assurance Analysismore » Protocol (MAAP) in this context.« less

  2. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) - U.S. Copyright TXu 1-901-039

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2014-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSESmore » accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. The basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings contained in this copyright.« less

  3. Social Security and Saving: A Time-Series Econometrics Pedagogical Example (With "R" Code)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wassell, Charles S., Jr.

    2018-01-01

    In 1974, and then again in 1996, Martin Feldstein published studies of the impact of the Social Security system on private saving in the U.S. economy. He found that Social Security depressed personal saving by a substantial amount--up to 50 percent. The author uses the Feldstein data and empirical models in this article to illustrate the steps in…

  4. Risk Assessment Methodology Based on the NISTIR 7628 Guidelines

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Hauser, Katie R

    2013-01-01

    Earlier work describes computational models of critical infrastructure that allow an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the impact of loss per stakeholder resulting from security breakdowns. Here, we consider how to identify, monitor and estimate risk impact and probability for different smart grid stakeholders. Our constructive method leverages currently available standards and defined failure scenarios. We utilize the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Interagency or Internal Reports (NISTIR) 7628 as a basis to apply Cyberspace Security Econometrics system (CSES) for comparing design principles and courses of action in making security-related decisions.

  5. Econometrics as evidence? Examining the 'causal' connections between financial speculation and commodities prices.

    PubMed

    Williams, James W; Cook, Nikolai M

    2016-10-01

    One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security. Yet, outside of the specialized practitioner community, very little is known about these techniques. This article examines one such econometric test, Granger causality, and its role in a pivotal Dodd-Frank rulemaking. Through an examination of the test for Granger causality and its attempts to distill the causal connections between financial speculation and commodities prices, the article argues that econometrics is a blunt but useful tool, limited in its ability to provide decisive insights into commodities markets and yet yielding useful returns for those who are able to wield it.

  6. Addressing the Need for Independence in the CSE Model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Ferragut, Erik M; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Information system security risk, defined as the product of the monetary losses associated with security incidents and the probability that they occur, is a suitable decision criterion when considering different information system architectures. Risk assessment is the widely accepted process used to understand, quantify, and document the effects of undesirable events on organizational objectives so that risk management, continuity of operations planning, and contingency planning can be performed. One technique, the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES), is a methodology for estimating security costs to stakeholders as a function of possible risk postures. In earlier works, we presented a computationalmore » infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain, as a result of security breakdowns. Additional work has applied CSES to specific business cases. The current state-of-the-art of CSES addresses independent events. In typical usage, analysts create matrices that capture their expert opinion, and then use those matrices to quantify costs to stakeholders. This expansion generalizes CSES to the common real-world case where events may be dependent.« less

  7. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  8. Managing Complex IT Security Processes with Value Based Measures

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Current trends indicate that IT security measures will need to greatly expand to counter the ever increasingly sophisticated, well-funded and/or economically motivated threat space. Traditional risk management approaches provide an effective method for guiding courses of action for assessment, and mitigation investments. However, such approaches no matter how popular demand very detailed knowledge about the IT security domain and the enterprise/cyber architectural context. Typically, the critical nature and/or high stakes require careful consideration and adaptation of a balanced approach that provides reliable and consistent methods for rating vulnerabilities. As reported in earlier works, the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System provides amore » comprehensive measure of reliability, security and safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. This paper advocates a dependability measure that acknowledges the aggregate structure of complex system specifications, and accounts for variations by stakeholder, by specification components, and by verification and validation impact.« less

  9. Quantifying Availability in SCADA Environments Using the Cyber Security Metric MFC

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Aissa, Anis Ben; Rabai, Latifa Ben Arfa; Abercrombie, Robert K

    2014-01-01

    Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are distributed networks dispersed over large geographic areas that aim to monitor and control industrial processes from remote areas and/or a centralized location. They are used in the management of critical infrastructures such as electric power generation, transmission and distribution, water and sewage, manufacturing/industrial manufacturing as well as oil and gas production. The availability of SCADA systems is tantamount to assuring safety, security and profitability. SCADA systems are the backbone of the national cyber-physical critical infrastructure. Herein, we explore the definition and quantification of an econometric measure of availability, as it applies tomore » SCADA systems; our metric is a specialization of the generic measure of mean failure cost.« less

  10. Synopsis of Evaluating Security Controls Based on Key Performance Indicators and Stakeholder Mission Value

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

    2008-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with the goal of improved enterprise and business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative work styles, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation of a balanced approach. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure of reliability, security and safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder,more » CSES reflects the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. This paper summarizes the basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural underpinnings.« less

  11. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    2012-07-27

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing complance pressures require careful consideration and adaption. The CSES provides a measure (i.e. a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders' interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variancemore » that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement.« less

  12. Methodology for Evaluating Security Controls Based on Key Performance Indicators and Stakeholder Mission

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sheldon, Frederick T; Abercrombie, Robert K; Mili, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. This paper proposes a Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) that provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. Formore » a given stakeholder, CSES reflects the variance that may exist among the stakes she/he attaches to meeting each requirement. This paper introduces the basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings.« less

  13. Evaluating Security Controls Based on Key Performance Indicators and Stakeholder Mission

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sheldon, Frederick T; Abercrombie, Robert K; Mili, Ali

    2008-01-01

    Good security metrics are required to make good decisions about how to design security countermeasures, to choose between alternative security architectures, and to improve security during operations. Therefore, in essence, measurement can be viewed as a decision aid. The lack of sound practical security metrics is severely hampering progress in the development of secure systems. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) offers the following advantages over traditional measurement systems: (1) CSES reflects the variances that exist amongst different stakeholders of the same system. Different stakeholders will typically attach different stakes to the same requirement or service (e.g., a service maymore » be provided by an information technology system or process control system, etc.). (2) For a given stakeholder, CSES reflects the variance that may exist among the stakes she/he attaches to meeting each requirement. The same stakeholder may attach different stakes to satisfying different requirements within the overall system specification. (3) For a given compound specification (e.g., combination(s) of commercial off the shelf software and/or hardware), CSES reflects the variance that may exist amongst the levels of verification and validation (i.e., certification) performed on components of the specification. The certification activity may produce higher levels of assurance across different components of the specification than others. Consequently, this paper introduces the basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs and the basic structural and mathematical underpinnings.« less

  14. Endogenous fertility, altruistic behavior across generations, and social security systems.

    PubMed

    Prinz, A

    1990-01-01

    This study examines the possible link between the existence of a pay-as-you-go social security program and individual procreative behavior. When a public old-age income support system takes the place of within-family support, the theoretical literature preducts that fertility rates will decline since children are no longer perceived as important to the old age security of the parents. The author takes up this theoretical problem and examines it through three different but related issues: optimal capital accumulation, optimal population growth and the role of social institutions affecting efficient intergenerational allocations. Econometric analysis employing a steady state growth model is used. Altruism between generations is studied for effect on the standard model. The model shows that for social optimum the per capita pension is related to the growth rate of the population, therefore, for society as a whole, children are investment goods. However, given the existence of a social security system, it is in each household's best interest to have no children at all. Only a government transfer, a child allowance to parents, changes the model and fertility rates. When modified to account for "caring" the model demonstrates that altruistic behavior between generations is not symmetrical. The study concludes that a pay-as-you-go funded social security system should be supplemented by a system of child allowances or replaced by a fully funded social security system.

  15. Failure Impact Analysis of Key Management in AMI Using Cybernomic Situational Assessment (CSA)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Hauser, Katie R

    2013-01-01

    In earlier work, we presented a computational framework for quantifying the security of a system in terms of the average loss a stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of threats to the system. We named this system, the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES). In this paper, we refine the framework and apply it to cryptographic key management within the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) as an example. The stakeholders, requirements, components, and threats are determined. We then populate the matrices with justified values by addressing the AMI at a higher level, rather than trying to consider every piece of hardwaremore » and software involved. We accomplish this task by leveraging the recently established NISTR 7628 guideline for smart grid security. This allowed us to choose the stakeholders, requirements, components, and threats realistically. We reviewed the literature and selected an industry technical working group to select three representative threats from a collection of 29 threats. From this subset, we populate the stakes, dependency, and impact matrices, and the threat vector with realistic numbers. Each Stakeholder s Mean Failure Cost is then computed.« less

  16. Factors influencing crime rates: an econometric analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothos, John M. A.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

    2016-05-01

    The scope of the present study is to research the dynamics that determine the commission of crimes in the US society. Our study is part of a model we are developing to understand urban crime dynamics and to enhance citizens' "perception of security" in large urban environments. The main targets of our research are to highlight dependence of crime rates on certain social and economic factors and basic elements of state anticrime policies. In conducting our research, we use as guides previous relevant studies on crime dependence, that have been performed with similar quantitative analyses in mind, regarding the dependence of crime on certain social and economic factors using statistics and econometric modelling. Our first approach consists of conceptual state space dynamic cross-sectional econometric models that incorporate a feedback loop that describes crime as a feedback process. In order to define dynamically the model variables, we use statistical analysis on crime records and on records about social and economic conditions and policing characteristics (like police force and policing results - crime arrests), to determine their influence as independent variables on crime, as the dependent variable of our model. The econometric models we apply in this first approach are an exponential log linear model and a logit model. In a second approach, we try to study the evolvement of violent crime through time in the US, independently as an autonomous social phenomenon, using autoregressive and moving average time-series econometric models. Our findings show that there are certain social and economic characteristics that affect the formation of crime rates in the US, either positively or negatively. Furthermore, the results of our time-series econometric modelling show that violent crime, viewed solely and independently as a social phenomenon, correlates with previous years crime rates and depends on the social and economic environment's conditions during previous years.

  17. Energy risk in the arbitrage pricing model: an empirical and theoretical study

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bremer, M.A.

    1986-01-01

    This dissertation empirically explores the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the context of energy risk for securities over the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s. Starting from a general multifactor pricing model, the paper develops a two factor model based on a market-like factor and an energy factor. This model is then tested on portfolios of securities grouped according to industrial classification using several econometric techniques designed to overcome some of the more serious estimation problems common to these models. The paper concludes that energy risk is priced in the 1970s and possibly even in the 1960s. Energy risk is found tomore » be priced in the sense that investors who hold assets subjected to energy risk are paid for this risk. The classic version of the Capital Asset Pricing Model which posits the market as the single priced factor is rejected in favor of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory or multi-beta versions of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The study introduces some original econometric methodology to carry out empirical tests.« less

  18. Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

  19. Quantifying the Impact of Unavailability in Cyber-Physical Environments

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Aissa, Anis Ben; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.

    2014-01-01

    The Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system discussed in this work manages a distributed control network for the Tunisian Electric & Gas Utility. The network is dispersed over a large geographic area that monitors and controls the flow of electricity/gas from both remote and centralized locations. The availability of the SCADA system in this context is critical to ensuring the uninterrupted delivery of energy, including safety, security, continuity of operations and revenue. Such SCADA systems are the backbone of national critical cyber-physical infrastructures. Herein, we propose adapting the Mean Failure Cost (MFC) metric for quantifying the cost of unavailability.more » This new metric combines the classic availability formulation with MFC. The resulting metric, so-called Econometric Availability (EA), offers a computational basis to evaluate a system in terms of the gain/loss ($/hour of operation) that affects each stakeholder due to unavailability.« less

  20. Provisioning in Agricultural Communities: Local, Regional and Global Cereal Prices and Local Production on Three Continents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Essam, Timothy; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Mann, Bristol F.; Eilerts, Gary

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring and incorporating diverse market and staple food information into food price indices is critical for food price analyses. Satellite remote sensing data and earth science models have an important role to play in improving humanitarian aid timing, delivery and distribution. Incorporating environmental observations into econometric models will improve food security analysis and understanding of market functioning.

  1. Econometric comparisons of liquid rocket engines for dual-fuel advanced earth-to-orbit shuttles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, J. A.

    1978-01-01

    Econometric analyses of advanced Earth-to-orbit vehicles indicate that there are economic benefits from development of new vehicles beyond the space shuttle as traffic increases. Vehicle studies indicate the advantage of the dual-fuel propulsion in single-stage vehicles. This paper shows the economic effect of incorporating dual-fuel propulsion in advanced vehicles. Several dual-fuel propulsion systems are compared to a baseline hydrogen and oxygen system.

  2. The Effects of Defense and Security on Capital Formation in Africa: An Empirical Investigation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-09-01

    costs in forgone investment of defense. An econometric model is constructed and applied to data from 27 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1971 through...undeniably greater homogeneity among African countries than among developing countries from different regions. Most of the countries considered here...alter our conclusions. Despite these similarities, there is considerable variation among African countries as well. About one-third of the countries

  3. IWR-MAIN Water Use Forecasting System. Version 5.1. User’s Manual and System Description

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-12-01

    Crosschecks for Input Data 1-68 11-1 Organization of the IWR-MAIN System H-8 11-2 Example of Econometric Demand Model 11-9 11-3 Example of Unit Use Coefficient...Unaccounted (entry does not affect default Loss and free service calculations) Y Conservation Data City Name: Test City USA Fl-Hetp, F2-return to monu, F4...socioeconomic data. 1-11 (1) Internal Growth Models The IWR-MAIN program contains a subroutine called GROWTH which uses econometric growth models based on

  4. Long-term energy security in a national scale using LEAP. Application to de-carbonization scenarios in Andorra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

    2016-04-01

    This paper analyses the long-term energy security in a national scale using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) modelling tool. It builds the LEAP Andorra model, which forecasts energy demand and supply for the Principality of Andorra by 2050. It has a general bottom-up structure, where energy demand is driven by the technological composition of the sectors of the economy. The technological model is combined with a top-down econometric model to take into account macroeconomic trends. The model presented in this paper provides an initial estimate of energy demand in Andorra segregated into all sectors (residential, transport, secondary, tertiary and public administration) and charts a baseline scenario based on historical trends. Additional scenarios representing different policy strategies are built to explore the country's potential energy savings and the feasibility to achieve the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) submitted in April 2015 to UN. In this climatic agreement Andorra intends to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 37% as compared to a business-as-usual scenario by 2030. In addition, current and future energy security is analysed in this paper under baseline and de-carbonization scenarios. Energy security issues are assessed in LEAP with an integrated vision, going beyond the classic perspective of security of supply, and being closer to the sustainability's integrative vision. Results of scenarios show the benefits of climate policies in terms of national energy security and the difficulties for Andorra to achieving the de-carbonization target by 2030.

  5. A spatial econometric analysis of land-use change with land cover trends data: an application to the Pacific Northwest

    Treesearch

    David J. Lewis; Ralph J. Alig

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a plot-level spatial econometric land-use model and estimates it with U.S. Geological Survey Land Cover Trends (LCT) geographic information system panel data for the western halves of the states of Oregon and Washington. The discrete-choice framework we use models plot-scale choices of the three dominant land uses in this region: forest, agriculture...

  6. Crime Pattern Analysis: A Spatial Frequent Pattern Mining Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-10

    econometrics. A companion to theoretical econometrics, pages 310-330, 1988. [5] L. Anselin, J. Cohen, D. Cook, W. Gorr, and G. Tita . Spatial analyses...52] G. Mohler, M. Short, P. Brantingham, F. Schoenberg, and G. Tita . Self-exciting point process modeling of crime. Journal of the American...Systems, 9:462, 2010. [69] M. Short, P. Brantingham, A. Bertozzi, and G. Tita . Dissipation and displacement of hotspots in reaction-diffusion models

  7. Centralized Cryptographic Key Management and Critical Risk Assessment - CRADA Final Report For CRADA Number NFE-11-03562

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, R. K.; Peters, Scott

    The Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE-OE) Cyber Security for Energy Delivery Systems (CSEDS) industry led program (DE-FOA-0000359) entitled "Innovation for Increasing Cyber Security for Energy Delivery Systems (12CSEDS)," awarded a contract to Sypris Electronics LLC to develop a Cryptographic Key Management System for the smart grid (Scalable Key Management Solutions for Critical Infrastructure Protection). Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Sypris Electronics, LLC as a result of that award entered into a CRADA (NFE-11-03562) between ORNL and Sypris Electronics, LLC. ORNL provided its Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) as a tool to be modifiedmore » and used as a metric to address risks and vulnerabilities in the management of cryptographic keys within the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) domain of the electric sector. ORNL concentrated our analysis on the AMI domain of which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) Working Group 1 (WG1) has documented 29 failure scenarios. The computational infrastructure of this metric involves system stakeholders, security requirements, system components and security threats. To compute this metric, we estimated the stakes that each stakeholder associates with each security requirement, as well as stochastic matrices that represent the probability of a threat to cause a component failure and the probability of a component failure to cause a security requirement violation. We applied this model to estimate the security of the AMI, by leveraging the recently established National Institute of Standards and Technology Interagency Report (NISTIR) 7628 guidelines for smart grid security and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 63351, Part 9 to identify the life cycle for cryptographic key management, resulting in a vector that assigned to each stakeholder an estimate of their average loss in terms of dollars per day of system operation. To further address probabilities of threats, information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain from NESCOR WG1. From these five selected scenarios, we characterized them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrated how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.« less

  8. Cryptographic Key Management and Critical Risk Assessment

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, Robert K

    The Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE-OE) CyberSecurity for Energy Delivery Systems (CSEDS) industry led program (DE-FOA-0000359) entitled "Innovation for Increasing CyberSecurity for Energy Delivery Systems (12CSEDS)," awarded a contract to Sypris Electronics LLC to develop a Cryptographic Key Management System for the smart grid (Scalable Key Management Solutions for Critical Infrastructure Protection). Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Sypris Electronics, LLC as a result of that award entered into a CRADA (NFE-11-03562) between ORNL and Sypris Electronics, LLC. ORNL provided its Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) as a tool to be modified and usedmore » as a metric to address risks and vulnerabilities in the management of cryptographic keys within the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) domain of the electric sector. ORNL concentrated our analysis on the AMI domain of which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) Working Group 1 (WG1) has documented 29 failure scenarios. The computational infrastructure of this metric involves system stakeholders, security requirements, system components and security threats. To compute this metric, we estimated the stakes that each stakeholder associates with each security requirement, as well as stochastic matrices that represent the probability of a threat to cause a component failure and the probability of a component failure to cause a security requirement violation. We applied this model to estimate the security of the AMI, by leveraging the recently established National Institute of Standards and Technology Interagency Report (NISTIR) 7628 guidelines for smart grid security and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 63351, Part 9 to identify the life cycle for cryptographic key management, resulting in a vector that assigned to each stakeholder an estimate of their average loss in terms of dollars per day of system operation. To further address probabilities of threats, information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain from NESCOR WG1. From these five selected scenarios, we characterized them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrated how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.« less

  9. Interrelation of GDP and pension capital: Mathematical and econometrical analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nepp, A. N.; Dolgodvorov, A. D.

    2016-12-01

    This article is a mathematicalanalysis of the relationship between GDP and the development of funded pension systems. For this purpose, a mathematical formula was derived from the macro-economic GDP, proportional to the level of income and consumption for the dependence of GDP on the level of pension payments, the value of pension savings and the structure of compulsory contributions to the pension fund allocated to the distribution and accumulative pension system. A derivation of the equation proves the linear relationship of GDP and the share of pension contributions channeled to the funded pension system. Thus, the macroeconomic indicator with the larger negative impact on GDP was proven to be the elimination of the compulsory funded pension system. Based on the econometric analysis, the positive effect of the distributive pension system was proven on macroeconomic parameters.

  10. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  11. Bootstrapping Student Understanding of What Is Going on in Econometrics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Peter E.

    2001-01-01

    Explains that econometrics is an intellectual game played by rules based on the sampling distribution concept. Contains explanations for why many students are uncomfortable with econometrics. Encourages instructors to use explain-how-to-bootstrap exercises to promote student understanding. (RLH)

  12. Systems GMM estimates of the health care spending and GDP relationship: a note.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Saten

    2013-06-01

    This paper utilizes the systems generalized method of moments (GMM) [Arellano and Bover (1995) J Econometrics 68:29-51; Blundell and Bond (1998) J Econometrics 87:115-143], and panel Granger causality [Hurlin and Venet (2001) Granger Causality tests in panel data models with fixed coefficients. Mime'o, University Paris IX], to investigate the health care spending and gross domestic product (GDP) relationship for organisation for economic co-operation and development countries over the period 1960-2007. The system GMM estimates confirm that the contribution of real GDP to health spending is significant and positive. The panel Granger causality tests imply that a bi-directional causality exists between health spending and GDP. To this end, policies aimed at raising health spending will eventually improve the well-being of the population in the long run.

  13. State Labor Market Research Study: An Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Labor Subsidies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacRae, C. Duncan; And Others

    The report describes the construction, application, and theoretical implications of an econometric model depicting the effects of labor subsidies on the supply of workers in the U.S. Three papers deal with the following aspects of constructing the econometric model: (1) examination of equilibrium wages, employment, and earnings of primary and…

  14. What is mLearning and How Can It Be Used to Support Learning and Teaching in Econometrics?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morales, Lucia

    2013-01-01

    The aim of case this study was to analyze the integration of mobile learning technologies in a postgraduate course in Finance (MSc in Finance) at Dublin Institute of Technology, where econometrics is an important course component. Previous experience with students undertaking econometrics modules supported this analysis, where the researcher…

  15. Identification and Inference for Econometric Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Donald W. K.; Stock, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This volume contains the papers presented in honor of the lifelong achievements of Thomas J. Rothenberg on the occasion of his retirement. The authors of the chapters include many of the leading econometricians of our day, and the chapters address topics of current research significance in econometric theory. The chapters cover four themes: identification and efficient estimation in econometrics, asymptotic approximations to the distributions of econometric estimators and tests, inference involving potentially nonstationary time series, such as processes that might have a unit autoregressive root, and nonparametric and semiparametric inference. Several of the chapters provide overviews and treatments of basic conceptual issues, while others advance our understanding of the properties of existing econometric procedures and/or propose new ones. Specific topics include identification in nonlinear models, inference with weak instruments, tests for nonstationary in time series and panel data, generalized empirical likelihood estimation, and the bootstrap.

  16. Multi-Year Revenue and Expenditure Forecasting for Small Municipal Governments.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-03-01

    Management Audit Econometric Revenue Forecast Gap and Impact Analysis Deterministic Expenditure Forecast Municipal Forecasting Municipal Budget Formlto...together with a multi-year revenue and expenditure forecasting model for the City of Monterey, California. The Monterey model includes an econometric ...65 5 D. FORECAST BASED ON THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL ------- 67 E. FORECAST BASED ON EXPERT JUDGMENT AND TREND ANALYSIS

  17. Modeling and simulation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hanham, R.; Vogt, W.G.; Mickle, M.H.

    1986-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a conference on computerized simulation. Topics considered at the conference included expert systems, modeling in electric power systems, power systems operating strategies, energy analysis, a linear programming approach to optimum load shedding in transmission systems, econometrics, simulation in natural gas engineering, solar energy studies, artificial intelligence, vision systems, hydrology, multiprocessors, and flow models.

  18. The SRI-WEFA Soviet Econometric Model: Phase One Documentation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-03-01

    established prices. We also have an estimated equation for an end-use residual category which conceptually includes state grain reserves, other undis...forecasting. An important virtue of the econometric discipline is that it requires one first to conceptualize and estimate regularities of behavior...any de- scriptive analysis. Within the framwork of an econometric model, the analyst is able to discriminate among these "special events

  19. Estimating the Regional Economic Significance of Airports

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-09-01

    following three options for estimating induced impacts: the economic base model , an econometric model , and a regional input-output model . One approach to...limitations, however, the economic base model has been widely used for regional economic analysis. A second approach is to develop an econometric model of...analysis is the principal statistical tool used to estimate the economic relationships. Regional econometric models are capable of estimating a single

  20. A methodological proposal to evaluate the cost of duration moral hazard in workplace accident insurance.

    PubMed

    Martín-Román, Ángel; Moral, Alfonso

    2017-12-01

    The cost of duration moral hazard in workplace accident insurance has been amply explored by North-American scholars. Given the current context of financial constraints in public accounts, and particularly in the Social Security system, we feel that the issue merits inquiry in the case of Spain. The present research posits a methodological proposal using the econometric technique of stochastic frontiers, which allows us to break down the duration of work-related leave into what we term "economic days" and "medical days". Our calculations indicate that during the 9-year period spanning 2005-2013, the cost of sick leave amongst full-time salaried workers amounted to 6920 million Euros (in constant 2011 Euros). Of this total, and bearing in mind that "economic days" are those attributable to duration moral hazard, over 3000 million Euros might be linked to workplace absenteeism. It is on this figure where economic policy measures might prove more effective.

  1. Existing agricultural ecosystem in China leads to environmental pollution: an econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Hongdou, Lei; Shiping, Li; Hao, Li

    2018-06-17

    Sustainable agriculture ensures food security and prevents starvation. However, the need to meet the increasing food demands of the growing population has led to poor and unsustainable agricultural practices, which promote environmental degradation. Given the contributions of agricultural ecosystems to environmental pollution, we investigated the impact of the agricultural ecosystem on environmental pollution in China using time series data from 1960 to 2014. We employed several methods for econometric analysis including the unit root test, Johansen test of cointegration, Granger causality test, and vector error correction model. Evidence based on the long-run elasticity indicates that a 1% increase in the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) equivalent to nitrous oxide from synthetic fertilizers will increase the emissions of CO 2 by 1.52% in the long run. Similarly, a 1% increase in the area of harvested rice paddy, cereal production, biomass of burned crop residues, and agricultural GDP will increase the carbon dioxide emissions by 0.85, 0.63, 0.37, and 0.22%, respectively. The estimated results indicate that there are long-term equilibrium relationships among the selected variables considered for the agricultural ecosystem and carbon dioxide emissions. In particular, we identified bidirectional causal associations between CO 2 emissions, biomass of burned crop residues, and cereal production. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

  2. Groundwater economics: An object-oriented foundation for integrated studies of irrigated agricultural systems

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

  3. Legitimate Techniques for Improving the R-Square and Related Statistics of a Multiple Regression Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-01-01

    explanatory variable has been ommitted. Ramsey (1974) has developed a rather interesting test for detecting specification errors using estimates of the...Peter. (1979) A Guide to Econometrics , Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press. Ramsey , J.B. (1974), "Classical Model Selection Through Specification Error... Tests ," in P. Zarembka, Ed. Frontiers in Econometrics , New York: Academia Press. Theil, Henri. (1971), Principles of Econometrics , New York: John Wiley

  4. Assessing Independent Variables Used in Econometric Modeling Forest Land Use or Land Cover Change: A Meta-Analysis

    Treesearch

    J Jeuck; F. Cubbage; R. Abt; R. Bardon; J. McCarter; J. Coulston; M. Renkow

    2014-01-01

    : We conducted a meta-analysis on 64 econometric models from 47 studies predicting forestland conversion to agriculture (F2A), forestland to development (F2D), forestland to non-forested (F2NF) and undeveloped (including forestland) to developed (U2D) land. Over 250 independent econometric variables were identified from 21 F2A models, 21 F2D models, 12 F2NF models, and...

  5. The need for econometric research in laboratory animal operations.

    PubMed

    Baker, David G; Kearney, Michael T

    2015-06-01

    The scarcity of research funding can affect animal facilities in various ways. These effects can be evaluated by examining the allocation of financial resources in animal facilities, which can be facilitated by the use of mathematical and statistical methods to analyze economic problems, a discipline known as econometrics. The authors applied econometrics to study whether increasing per diem charges had a negative effect on the number of days of animal care purchased by animal users. They surveyed animal numbers and per diem charges at 20 research institutions and found that demand for large animals decreased as per diem charges increased. The authors discuss some of the challenges involved in their study and encourage research institutions to carry out more robust econometric studies of this and other economic questions facing laboratory animal research.

  6. Allocating physicians' overhead costs to services: an econometric/accounting-activity based-approach.

    PubMed

    Peden, Al; Baker, Judith J

    2002-01-01

    Using the optimizing properties of econometric analysis, this study analyzes how physician overhead costs (OC) can be allocated to multiple activities to maximize precision in reimbursing the costs of services. Drawing on work by Leibenstein and Friedman, the analysis also shows that allocating OC to multiple activities unbiased by revenue requires controlling for revenue when making the estimates. Further econometric analysis shows that it is possible to save about 10 percent of OC by paying only for those that are necessary.

  7. Price of gasoline: forecasting comparisons. [Box-Jenkins, econometric, and regression methods

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bopp, A.E.; Neri, J.A.

    Gasoline prices are simulated using three popular forecasting methodologies: A Box--Jenkins type method, an econometric method, and a regression method. One-period-ahead and 18-period-ahead comparisons are made. For the one-period-ahead method, a Box--Jenkins type time-series model simulated best, although all do well. However, for the 18-period simulation, the econometric and regression methods perform substantially better than the Box-Jenkins formulation. A rationale for and implications of these results ae discussed. 11 references.

  8. Analytical-numerical solution of a nonlinear integrodifferential equation in econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kakhktsyan, V. M.; Khachatryan, A. Kh.

    2013-07-01

    A mixed problem for a nonlinear integrodifferential equation arising in econometrics is considered. An analytical-numerical method is proposed for solving the problem. Some numerical results are presented.

  9. Jordan Water Project: an interdisciplinary evaluation of freshwater vulnerability and security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorelick, S.; Yoon, J.; Rajsekhar, D.; Muller, M. F.; Zhang, H.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Sigel, K.; Thilmant, A.; Avisse, N.; Lachaut, T.; Harou, J. J.; Knox, S.; Selby, P. D.; Mustafa, D.; Talozi, S.; Haddad, Y.; Shamekh, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Jordan Water Project, part of the Belmont Forum projects, is an interdisciplinary, international research effort focused on evaluation of freshwater security in Jordan, one of the most water-vulnerable countries in the world. The team covers hydrology, water resources systems analysis, economics, policy evaluation, geography, risk and remote sensing analyses, and model platform development. The entire project team communally engaged in construction of an integrated hydroeconomic model for water supply policy evaluation. To represent water demand and allocation behavior at multiple levels of decision making,the model integrates biophysical modules that simulate natural and engineered hydrologic phenomena with human behavioral modules. Hydrologic modules include spatially-distributed groundwater and surface-water models for the major aquifers and watersheds throughout Jordan. For the human modules, we adopt a multi-agent modeling approach to represent decision-making processes. The integrated model was developed in Pynsim, a new open-source, object-oriented platform in Python for network-based water resource systems. We continue to explore the impacts of future scenarios and interventions.This project had tremendous encouragement and data support from Jordan's Ministry of Water and Irrigation. Modeling technology is being transferred through a companion NSF/USAID PEER project awarded toJordan University of Science and Technology. Individual teams have also conducted a range of studies aimed at evaluating Jordanian and transboundary surface water and groundwater systems. Surveys, interviews, and econometric analyses enabled us to better understandthe behavior of urban households, farmers, private water resellers, water use pattern of the commercial sector and irrigation water user associations. We analyzed nationwide spatial and temporal statistical trends in rainfall, developed urban and national comparative metrics to quantify water supply vulnerability, improved remote sensing methods to estimate crop-water use, and evaluated the impacts of climate change on future drought severity.

  10. Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development.

    PubMed

    Wagner, Liam; Ross, Ian; Foster, John; Hankamer, Ben

    2016-01-01

    The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature 'well below 2°C' and to 'aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C'. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international 'pro-growth' strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve 'sustainable development' goals.

  11. Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development

    PubMed Central

    Wagner, Liam; Ross, Ian; Foster, John; Hankamer, Ben

    2016-01-01

    The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C’ and to ‘aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C’. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international ‘pro-growth’ strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve ‘sustainable development’ goals. PMID:26959977

  12. Cost Effectiveness Trade-Offs in Software Support Environment Standardization.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-09-30

    IIIIIEEEIIIIIE MiII I U..2 2 ma MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART 911C FILE C y, o FINAL REPORT - September 30, 1986 G- TECHNION INTERNATIONAL, INC. Cost...Summary description of econometric model B-I C. Causal chain used as basis for model C-I D. Excerpts from [Wer185) D-1 LIST OF FIGURES S-1 USAF MCCR...Productivity cost drivers D-4 LIST OF TASL3$ I-1 Summary of Tangible Benefits in Econometric Equations 1-9 1-2 Summary of Tangible Costs in Econometric

  13. Econometric Models of Education, Some Applications. Education and Development, Technical Reports.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tinbergen, Jan; And Others

    This report contains five papers which describe mathematical models of the educational system as it relates to economic growth. Experimental applications of the models to particular educational systems are discussed. Three papers, by L. J. Emmerij, J. Blum, and G. Williams, discuss planning models for the calculation of educational requirements…

  14. Appendix : airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-12-19

    This is the Appendix for Airborne Incidents: An Econometric Analysis of Severity Report. : Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with another aircraft or terrai...

  15. Trade Openness and Domestic Water Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dang, Qian; Konar, Megan

    2018-01-01

    We contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment by asking, what is the impact of trade on national water use? To address this question, we employ econometric methods to quantify the causal relationship between trade openness and water use. Specifically, we use the instrumental variables methodology to evaluate the impact of trade openness on domestic water withdrawals in agriculture and industry. We find that trade openness does not have a significant impact on total or industrial water withdrawals. However, we show that one percentage point increase in trade openness leads to a 5.21% decrease in agricultural water withdrawals. We find that trade openness reduces water use in agriculture primarily through the intensive margin effect, by leading farmers to produce more with less water, such as through the adoption of technology. We do not find evidence for extensive margin or crop mix impacts on agricultural water withdrawals. Significantly, these results demonstrate that trade openness leads to less water use in agriculture. This finding has broad scientific and policy relevance as we endeavor to untangle causal relationships in the complex global food system and develop policies to achieve water and food security.

  16. On accommodating spatial interactions in a Generalized Heterogeneous Data Model (GHDM) of mixed types of dependent variables.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2015-12-01

    We develop an econometric framework for incorporating spatial dependence in integrated model systems of latent variables and multidimensional mixed data outcomes. The framework combines Bhats Generalized Heterogeneous Data Model (GHDM) with a spat...

  17. A Framework for Restructuring the Military Retirement System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-07-01

    Associate Professor of Economics in the Social Sciences Department at West Point where he teaches econometrics and labor economics. His areas of...others worth considering, but each should be carefully benchmarked against our proposed framework. 25 ENDNOTES 1. Office of the Actuary , Statistical

  18. Airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity, December 31, 2014 : technical summary

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-12-31

    This is a technical summary of the Airborne Incidents: An Econometric Analysis of Severity main report. : Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with anoth...

  19. Econometric Models of U.S. Navy Career Petty Officer Retention.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-06-01

    PF AD-AL04 076 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA F/6 5/9 ECONO ETRIC MODELS OF U.S. NAVY CAREER PETTY OFFICER RETENTION.(Ul JUN 81 J J B PKO...THESIS D . ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF U. S. NAVY CAREER PETTY OFFICER RETENTION SML Vby John Joseph Bepko III June 1981 Thesis Advisor: George W. Thomas...DOCUMENTATION PACE 33703 coTu~rwc oEm 0419PsR 01N1911VT*48~ &GM01 1𔃻. 411CIP1SIMYS CATALOG IulmSIS Econometric Models of U. S. Navy Career Petty 1’ t h s s j

  20. Econometrics of exhaustible resource supply: a theory and an application. Final report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Epple, D.; Hansen, L.P.

    1981-12-01

    An econometric model of US oil and natural gas discoveries is developed in this study. The econometric model is explicitly derived as the solution to the problem of maximizing the expected discounted after tax present value of revenues net of exploration, development, and production costs. The model contains equations representing producers' formation of price expectations and separate equations giving producers' optimal exploration decisions contingent on expected prices. A procedure is developed for imposing resource base constraints (e.g., ultimate recovery estimates based on geological analysis) when estimating the econometric model. The model is estimated using aggregate post-war data for the Unitedmore » States. Production from a given addition to proved reserves is assumed to follow a negative exponential path, and additions of proved reserves from a given discovery are assumed to follow a negative exponential path. Annual discoveries of oil and natural gas are estimated as latent variables. These latent variables are the endogenous variables in the econometric model of oil and natural gas discoveries. The model is estimated without resource base constraints. The model is also estimated imposing the mean oil and natural gas ultimate recovery estimates of the US Geological Survey. Simulations through the year 2020 are reported for various future price regimes.« less

  1. Integrating geographic information systems and remote sensing with spatial econometric and mixed logit models for environmental valuation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wells, Aaron Raymond

    This research focuses on the Emory and Obed Watersheds in the Cumberland Plateau in Central Tennessee and the Lower Hatchie River Watershed in West Tennessee. A framework based on market and nonmarket valuation techniques was used to empirically estimate economic values for environmental amenities and negative externalities in these areas. The specific techniques employed include a variation of hedonic pricing and discrete choice conjoint analysis (i.e., choice modeling), in addition to geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing. Microeconomic models of agent behavior, including random utility theory and profit maximization, provide the principal theoretical foundation linking valuation techniques and econometric models. The generalized method of moments estimator for a first-order spatial autoregressive function and mixed logit models are the principal econometric methods applied within the framework. The dissertation is subdivided into three separate chapters written in a manuscript format. The first chapter provides the necessary theoretical and mathematical conditions that must be satisfied in order for a forest amenity enhancement program to be implemented. These conditions include utility, value, and profit maximization. The second chapter evaluates the effect of forest land cover and information about future land use change on respondent preferences and willingness to pay for alternative hypothetical forest amenity enhancement options. Land use change information and the amount of forest land cover significantly influenced respondent preferences, choices, and stated willingness to pay. Hicksian welfare estimates for proposed enhancement options ranged from 57.42 to 25.53, depending on the policy specification, information level, and econometric model. The third chapter presents economic values for negative externalities associated with channelization that affect the productivity and overall market value of forested wetlands. Results of robust, generalized moments estimation of a double logarithmic first-order spatial autoregressive error model (inverse distance weights with spatial dependence up to 1500m) indicate that the implicit cost of damages to forested wetlands caused by channelization equaled -$5,438 ha-1. Collectively, the results of this dissertation provide economic measures of the damages to and benefits of environmental assets, help private landowners and policy makers identify the amenity attributes preferred by the public, and improve the management of natural resources.

  2. Econometrics and Psychometrics: A Survey of Communalities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldberger, Arthur S.

    1971-01-01

    Several themes which are common to both econometrics and psychometrics are surveyed. The themes are illustrated by reference to permanent income hypotheses, simultaneous equation models, adaptive expectations and partial adjustment schemes, and by reference to test score theory, factor analysis, and time-series models. (Author)

  3. 2003 IDA Cost Research Symposium: Cost of Evolutionary Acquisition/Spiral Development

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-08-01

    Louis, Missouri”, IDA Paper P-3548 “Econometric Modeling of Acquisition Category I Systems at the Lockheed- Martin Plant in Marietta , Georgia”, IDA...Systems Command (NAVSEA)..................................................... B- 71 Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division (NSWCDD...cost estimates and reports on life-cycle costs of major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) in Acquisition Category ID (see Reference [1]). Cost

  4. Development of Regional Power Sector Coal Fuel Costs (Prices) for the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Model

    EIA Publications

    2017-01-01

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) produces monthly projections of energy supply, demand, trade, and prices over a 13-24 month period. Every January, the forecast horizon is extended through December of the following year. The STEO model is an integrated system of econometric regression equations and identities that link data on the various components of the U.S. energy industry together in order to develop consistent forecasts. The regression equations are estimated and the STEO model is solved using the EViews 9.5 econometric software package from IHS Global Inc. The model consists of various modules specific to each energy resource. All modules provide projections for the United States, and some modules provide more detailed forecasts for different regions of the country.

  5. The impact of corruption on the sustainable development of human capital

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Absalyamova, Svetlana; Absalyamov, Timur; Khusnullova, Asiya; Mukhametgalieva, Chulpan

    2016-08-01

    The article explains the use of the human capital sustainable development index (HCSDI) to assess the quality of the reproduction of human capital. The paper provides the algorithm for calculating HCSDI and its components. Authors estimated cross-country differences of HCSDI and developed econometric model of the impact of corruption on HCSDI. The use of this model has allowed to reveal the mechanism and assess the impact of corruption on HCSDI and its components. The results of econometric analysis revealed a negative multiplier effect: an increase in the corruption of the socio-economic system of the state by 1% caused HCSDI reduce by more than 1%. The results and conclusions may be proxy-assessments of the socio-economic consequences of violations of the stability of reproduction of human capital in the conditions of the growth of corruption in the country

  6. Food Security, Institutional Framework and Technology: Examining the Nexus in Nigeria Using ARDL Approach

    PubMed Central

    Osabohien, Romanus; Osabuohien, Evans; Urhie, Ese

    2018-01-01

    Background: Growth in agricultural science and technology is deemed essential for in-creasing agricultural output; reduce the vulnerability of rural poverty and in turn, food security. Food security and growth in agricultural output depends on technological usages, which enhances the pro-ductive capacity of the agricultural sector. The indicators of food security utilised in this study in-clude: dietary energy supply, average value of food production, prevalence of food inadequacy, among others. Objective: In this paper, we examined the level of technology and how investment in the agriculture and technology can improve technical know-how in Nigeria with a view to achieving food security. Method: We carried out the analysis on how investment in technology and institutional framework can improve the level of food availability (a key component of food security) in Nigeria using econ-ometric technique based on Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) framework. Results: The results showed, inter alia, that in Nigeria, there is a high level of food insecurity as a result of low attention on food production occasioned by the pervasive influence of oil that become the major export product. Conclusion: It was noted that the availability of arable land was one of the major factors to increase food production to solve the challenge of food insecurity. Thus, the efforts of reducing the rate of food insecurity are essential in this regards. This can also be achieved, among others, by active interactions between government and farmers, to make contribution to important planning issues that relate to food production in the country and above all, social protection policies should be geared or channelled to agricultural sector to protect farmers who are vulnerable to shocks and avert risks associated with agriculture. PMID:29853816

  7. Food Security, Institutional Framework and Technology: Examining the Nexus in Nigeria Using ARDL Approach.

    PubMed

    Osabohien, Romanus; Osabuohien, Evans; Urhie, Ese

    2018-04-01

    Growth in agricultural science and technology is deemed essential for in-creasing agricultural output; reduce the vulnerability of rural poverty and in turn, food security. Food security and growth in agricultural output depends on technological usages, which enhances the pro-ductive capacity of the agricultural sector. The indicators of food security utilised in this study in-clude: dietary energy supply, average value of food production, prevalence of food inadequacy, among others. In this paper, we examined the level of technology and how investment in the agriculture and technology can improve technical know-how in Nigeria with a view to achieving food security. We carried out the analysis on how investment in technology and institutional framework can improve the level of food availability (a key component of food security) in Nigeria using econ-ometric technique based on Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) framework. The results showed, inter alia, that in Nigeria, there is a high level of food insecurity as a result of low attention on food production occasioned by the pervasive influence of oil that become the major export product. It was noted that the availability of arable land was one of the major factors to increase food production to solve the challenge of food insecurity. Thus, the efforts of reducing the rate of food insecurity are essential in this regards. This can also be achieved, among others, by active interactions between government and farmers, to make contribution to important planning issues that relate to food production in the country and above all, social protection policies should be geared or channelled to agricultural sector to protect farmers who are vulnerable to shocks and avert risks associated with agriculture.

  8. Glossary for econometrics and epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Gunasekara, F Imlach; Carter, K; Blakely, T

    2008-10-01

    Epidemiologists and econometricians are often interested in similar topics-socioeconomic position and health outcomes-but the different languages that epidemiologists and economists use to interpret and discuss their results can create a barrier to mutual communication. This glossary defines key terms used in econometrics and epidemiology to assist in bridging this gap.

  9. Transportation and socioeconomic impacts of bypasses on communities : an integrated synthesis of panel data, multilevel, and spatial econometric models with case studies.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-09-21

    Title: Transportation and Socioeconomic Impacts of Bypasses on Communities: An Integrated Synthesis of Panel Data, Multilevel, and Spatial Econometric Models with Case Studies. The title used at the start of this project was Transportation and Soc...

  10. Time Series Econometrics for the 21st Century

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hansen, Bruce E.

    2017-01-01

    The field of econometrics largely started with time series analysis because many early datasets were time-series macroeconomic data. As the field developed, more cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets were collected, which today dominate the majority of academic empirical research. In nonacademic (private sector, central bank, and governmental)…

  11. Spatial analysis of rural land development

    Treesearch

    Seong-Hoon Cho; David H. Newman

    2005-01-01

    This article examines patterns of rural land development and density using spatial econometric models with the application of Geographical Information System (GIS). The cluster patterns of both development and high-density development indicate that the spatially continuous expansions of development and high-density development exist in relatively remote rural areas....

  12. Groundwater response to changing water-use practices in sloping aquifers using convolution of transient response functions

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

  13. An Econometric Model for Forecasting Income and Employment in Hawaii.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chau, Laurence C.

    This report presents the methodology for short-run forecasting of personal income and employment in Hawaii. The econometric model developed in the study is used to make actual forecasts through 1973 of income and employment, with major components forecasted separately. Several sets of forecasts are made, under different assumptions on external…

  14. Outputs as Educator Effectiveness in the United States: Shifting towards Political Accountability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Piro, Jody S.; Mullen, Laurie

    2013-01-01

    The definition of educator effectiveness is being redefined by econometric modeling to evidence student achievement on standardized tests. While the reasons that econometric frameworks are in vogue are many, it is clear that the strength of such models lie in the quantifiable evidence of student learning. Current accountability models frame…

  15. Technical Change in the North American Forestry Sector: A Review

    Treesearch

    Jeffery C. Stier; David N. Bengston

    1992-01-01

    Economists have examined the impact of technical change on the forest products sector using the historical, index number, and econometric approaches. This paper reviews econometric analyses of the rate and bias of technical change, examining functional form, factors included, and empirical results. Studies are classified as first- second-, or third-generation...

  16. Econometric Methods for Causal Evaluation of Education Policies and Practices: A Non-Technical Guide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger

    2011-01-01

    Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical detail, this paper explains the main idea and intuition…

  17. An econometric model of the hardwood lumber market

    Treesearch

    William G. Luppold

    1982-01-01

    A recursive econometric model with causal flow originating from the demand relationship is used to analyze the effects of exogenous variables on quantity and price of hardwood lumber. Wage rates, interest rates, stumpage price, lumber exports, and price of lumber demanders' output were the major factors influencing quantities demanded and supplied and hardwood...

  18. The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Bruce K.; Perry, John J.; Petkus, Marie

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the "U.S. News & World Report" "Best Colleges 2010" guide ("U.S. News & World Report" 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online…

  19. Empirical methods for modeling landscape change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity

    Treesearch

    David Lewis; Ralph Alig

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent economics research aimed at integrating discrete-choice econometric models of land-use change with spatially-explicit landscape simulations and quantitative ecology. This research explicitly models changes in the spatial pattern of landscapes in two steps: 1) econometric estimation of parcel-scale transition...

  20. Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

    2009-12-01

    This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.

  1. The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 3: Intensive use of living resources, agriculture. Part 3: The integrated impact of improved (ERS) information on US agricultural commodities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seidel, A. D.

    1974-01-01

    The economic value of information produced by an assumed operational version of an earth resources survey satellite of the ERTS class is assessed. The theoretical capability of an ERTS system to provide improved agricultural forecasts is analyzed and this analysis is used as a reasonable input to the econometric methods derived by ECON. An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scopes, and architecture of the analysis, and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. Several promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

  2. Groundwater economics: An object-oriented foundation for integrated studies of irrigated agricultural systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steward, David R.; Peterson, Jeffrey M.; Yang, Xiaoying; Bulatewicz, Tom; Herrera-Rodriguez, Mauricio; Mao, Dazhi; Hendricks, Nathan

    2009-05-01

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater wells and agricultural parcels is employed to couple these models using geographic information science technology and open modeling interface protocols. This approach is used to study the collective action problem of the common pool. Three different policies (existing, regulation, and incentive based) are studied in the semiarid grasslands overlying the Ogallala Aquifer in the central United States. Results show that while regulation using the prior appropriation doctrine and incentives using a water buy-back program may each achieve the same level of water savings across the study region, each policy has a different impact on spatial patterns of groundwater declines and farm level economic activity. This represents the first time that groundwater and econometric models of irrigated agriculture have been integrated at the well-parcel level and provides methods for scientific investigation of this coupled natural-human system. Results are useful for science to inform decision making and public policy debate.

  3. A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.

    PubMed

    Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R

    2007-09-01

    This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors).

  4. Pulling Econometrics Students up by Their Bootstraps

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Hara, Michael E.

    2014-01-01

    Although the concept of the sampling distribution is at the core of much of what we do in econometrics, it is a concept that is often difficult for students to grasp. The thought process behind bootstrapping provides a way for students to conceptualize the sampling distribution in a way that is intuitive and visual. However, teaching students to…

  5. Econometric models of road use, accidents, and road investment decisions. Volume 2 : an econometric model of car ownership, road use, accidents, and their severity (Essay 3)

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1999-11-01

    Using a fairly large cross-section/time-series data base, covering all provinces of Norway and all months between January 1973 and December 1994, we estimate non-linear (Box-Cox) regression equations explaining aggregate car ownership, road use, seat...

  6. Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…

  7. Econometric Estimation of the Economic Impact of a University. AIR 1993 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gana, Rajaram

    This study conducted an econometric analysis of the impact of the University of Delaware (UD), a public, doctoral level institution, on the Delaware economy, particularly the impact of nonresident students. To construct a model the study used historical institutional data from the Office of Institutional Research and Planning at UD and…

  8. The Nexus of Place and Finance in the Analysis of Educational Attainment: A Spatial Econometric Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sutton, Farah

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the spatial distribution of educational attainment and then builds upon current predictive frameworks for understanding patterns of educational attainment by applying a spatial econometric method of analysis. The research from this study enables a new approach to the policy discussion on how to improve educational attainment…

  9. First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arnold, Ivo J. M.; Rowaan, Wietske

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year…

  10. Determinants of Educational Achievement in Morocco: A Micro-Econometric Analysis Applied to the TIMSS Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ibourk, Aomar

    2013-01-01

    Based on data from international surveys measuring learning (TIMSS), this article focuses on the analysis of the academic performance Moroccan students. The results of the econometric model show that the students' characteristics, their family environment and school context are key determinants of these performances. The study also shows that the…

  11. An Initial Econometric Consideration of Supply and Demand in the Guaranteed Student Loan Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bayus, Barry; Kendis, Kurt

    1982-01-01

    In this econometric model of the Guaranteed Student Loan Program (GSLP), supply is related to banks' liquidity and yield curves, all lenders' economic costs and returns, and Student Loan Marketing Association activity. GSLP demand is based on loan costs, family debt position, and net student need for financial aid. (RW)

  12. 78 FR 41161 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Advance...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-07-09

    ... behavior is included in the econometric models underlying STANS, time series of proportional changes in... included in the econometric models underlying STANS, time series of proportional changes in implied... calculate daily margin requirements. OCC has proposed at this time to clear only OTC Options on the S&P 500...

  13. An Econometric Model of the Scholastic Aptitude Test Performance of State Educational Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hashway, Robert M.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Nationwide data were partitioned into wealth, fiscal policy, fiscal orientation, and Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) performance and participation. Largest between-group differences show that low SAT achieving states have a larger percentage of seniors taking the SAT, along with higher per capita income, per pupil expenditures, and teacher…

  14. TRACKING THE EMISSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE BY NATION, SECTOR, AND FUEL TYPE: A TRACE GAS ACCOUNTING SYSTEM (TGAS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper describes a new way to estimate an efficient econometric model of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by nation, sector, and fuel type. Equations for fuel intensity are estimated for coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, and heat for six sectors: agricultural, indus...

  15. Pedagogy and the PC: Trends in the AIS Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Badua, Frank

    2008-01-01

    The author investigated the array of course topics in accounting information systems (AIS), as course syllabi embody. The author (a) used exploratory data analysis to determine the topics that AIS courses most frequently offered and (b) used descriptive statistics and econometric analysis to trace the diversity of course topics through time,…

  16. The causal nexus between carbon dioxide emissions and agricultural ecosystem-an econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

    2017-01-01

    Achieving a long-term food security and preventing hunger include a better nutrition through sustainable systems of production, distribution, and consumption. Nonetheless, the quest for an alternative to increasing global food supply to meet the growing demand has led to the use of poor agricultural practices that promote climate change. Given the contribution of the agricultural ecosystem towards greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this study investigated the causal nexus between carbon dioxide emissions and agricultural ecosystem by employing a data spanning from 1961 to 2012. Evidence from long-run elasticity shows that a 1 % increase in the area of rice paddy harvested will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.49 %, a 1 % increase in biomass-burned crop residues will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.00 %, a 1 % increase in cereal production will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.38 %, and a 1 % increase in agricultural machinery will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 0.09 % in the long run. There was a bidirectional causality between carbon dioxide emissions, cereal production, and biomass-burned crop residues. The Granger causality shows that the agricultural ecosystem in Ghana is sensitive to climate change vulnerability.

  17. An Econometric Analysis of the Unemployment Insurance System in a Local Urban Labor Market. Final Report for September 1, 1973--September 30, 1974.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marston, Stephen Tilney

    The study derives a model of the unemployment insurance (UI) system and its relationship to the labor market, estimates it with data from the Detroit Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area, and evaluates its potential use to forecast UI benefit amounts, UI insured unemployment, and UI exhaustions. It further uses the model to analyze policy issues…

  18. Econometric Assessment of "One Minute" Paper as a Pedagogic Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Das, Amaresh

    2010-01-01

    This paper makes an econometric testing of one-minute paper used as a tool to manage and assess instruction in my statistics class. One of our findings is that the one minute paper when I have tested it by using an OLS estimate in a controlled Vs experimental design framework is found to statistically significant and effective in enhancing…

  19. The Anatomy of a Likely Donor: Econometric Evidence on Philanthropy to Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lara, Christen; Johnson, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $30.3 billion, an 8.2% increase over the previous year. Roughly, 26% of those funds came from alumni donations. This article builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model to explain and predict the pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data…

  20. An Econometric Approach to Evaluate Navy Advertising Efficiency.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1996-03-01

    This thesis uses an econometric approach to systematically and comprehensively analyze Navy advertising and recruiting data to determine Navy... advertising cost efficiency in the Navy recruiting process. Current recruiting and advertising cost data are merged into an appropriate data base and...evaluated using multiple regression techniques to find assessments of the relationships between Navy advertising expenditures and recruit contracts attained

  1. Patterns of Marine Corps Reserve Continuation Behavior: Pre- and Post-9/11

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-03-01

    to consider when studying reserve retention and very difficult to measure using multivariate econometric models, which rely solely on observational...chapter present an interesting supplement to standard economic theoretical perspectives commonly used in econometric analyses. Notably, the structural...relevant to this thesis. These factors contribute to the over- arching themes of job satisfaction and organizational commitment and therefore ultimately

  2. Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

    Treesearch

    SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

  3. Econometric analysis of the factors influencing forest acreage trends in the southeast.

    Treesearch

    Ralph J. Alig

    1986-01-01

    Econometric models of changes in land use acreages in the Southeast by physiographic region have been developed by pooling cross-section and time series data. Separate acreage equations have been estimated for the three major private forestland owner classes and the three major classes of nonforest land use. Observations were drawn at three or four different points in...

  4. An econometric model of the U.S. pallet market

    Treesearch

    Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

    1979-01-01

    A need for quantitative information on demand and price has been expressed by the pallet industry. In response to this, an econometric model of the aggregate U.S. pallet market was developed. Demand was found to be affected by real pallet price, industrial and food production levels, and slipsheet prices. Supply was affected by real price, housing starts lagged 1 year...

  5. IDA 2004 Cost Research Symposium: Investments in, Use of, and Management of Cost Research

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-09-01

    Database: None Publication: Technical Report Keywords: Government, Aircraft, SD&D, Production, Integration, Data Collection, Database, CER B- 71 ... Martin Plant in Marietta , Georgia,” IDA Paper P-3590, July 2001 “Econometric Modeling of Acquisition Category I Systems at the Raytheon Plant in...NAVSEA) ............................................................ B- 71 Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division (NSWCDD

  6. Vietnam: The Political Economy of Education in a "Socialist" Periphery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    London, Jonathan D.

    2006-01-01

    In this article I examine historic changes in the goals, conduct and outcomes of education policies in Vietnam from the 1940s to the present, under the Communist Party of Vietnam. Recent studies of Vietnam's education system centre on econometric and demographic analysis of education data dating back to the early 1990s, when Vietnam began an…

  7. Colin A. McMillan | NREL

    Science.gov Websites

    Colin A. McMillan Photo of Colin A. McMillan. Colin McMillan Researcher IV-Operations Research Econometrics Research Interests Systems-level energy efficiency analysis Material and energy flows in economies ; Journal of Industrial Ecology 17, no. 5 (October 2013): 700-11. doi:10.1111/jiec.12050 McMillan, C.A., S.J

  8. U.S. COIN Doctrine: Betting the Future on a Too Distant Past

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-17

    authority. This conceptualization also draws on the Maoist model of insurgency reflecting the influence that 20th Century events have on current...doctrine. The model for legitimate government is a representative government, which Galula points out, is responsive to the needs of its people. JP 1-02... econometrics approach to address the COIN problem. Systems analysis implied that there were two competing systems, insurgency and COIN, with the

  9. Reflections on Heckman and Pinto’s Causal Analysis After Haavelmo

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-11-01

    Econometric Analysis , Cambridge University Press, 477–490, 1995. Halpern, J. (1998). Axiomatizing causal reasoning. In Uncertainty in Artificial...Models, Structural Models and Econometric Policy Evaluation. Elsevier B.V., Amsterdam, 4779–4874. Heckman, J. J. (1979). Sample selection bias as a...Reflections on Heckman and Pinto’s “Causal Analysis After Haavelmo” Judea Pearl University of California, Los Angeles Computer Science Department Los

  10. The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. NBER Working Paper No. 15794

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Angrist, Joshua; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen

    2010-01-01

    This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer'rs (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice.…

  11. The Model Analyst’s Toolkit: Scientific Model Development, Analysis, and Validation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-02-20

    being integrated within MAT, including Granger causality. Granger causality tests whether a data series helps when predicting future values of another...relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438. Granger, C. W. (1980). Testing ... testing dataset. This effort is described in Section 3.2. 3.1. Improvements in Granger Causality User Interface Various metrics of causality are

  12. Geographical Network Analysis and Spatial Econometrics as Tools to Enhance Our Understanding of Student Migration Patterns and Benefits in the U.S. Higher Education Network

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    González Canché, Manuel S.

    2018-01-01

    This study measures the extent to which student outmigration outside the 4-year sector takes place and posits that the benefits from attracting non-resident students exist regardless of sector of enrollment. The study also provides empirical evidence about the relevance of employing geographical network analysis (GNA) and spatial econometrics in…

  13. Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue: a framework for the marriage of health econometrics and cost-effectiveness analysis.

    PubMed

    Hoch, Jeffrey S; Briggs, Andrew H; Willan, Andrew R

    2002-07-01

    Economic evaluation is often seen as a branch of health economics divorced from mainstream econometric techniques. Instead, it is perceived as relying on statistical methods for clinical trials. Furthermore, the statistic of interest in cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is not amenable to regression-based methods, hence the traditional reliance on comparing aggregate measures across the arms of a clinical trial. In this paper, we explore the potential for health economists undertaking cost-effectiveness analysis to exploit the plethora of established econometric techniques through the use of the net-benefit framework - a recently suggested reformulation of the cost-effectiveness problem that avoids the reliance on cost-effectiveness ratios and their associated statistical problems. This allows the formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem within a standard regression type framework. We provide an example with empirical data to illustrate how a regression type framework can enhance the net-benefit method. We go on to suggest that practical advantages of the net-benefit regression approach include being able to use established econometric techniques, adjust for imperfect randomisation, and identify important subgroups in order to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of an intervention. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. An Applied Physicist Does Econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taff, L. G.

    2010-02-01

    The biggest problem those attempting to understand econometric data, via modeling, have is that economics has no F = ma. Without a theoretical underpinning, econometricians have no way to build a good model to fit observations to. Physicists do, and when F = ma failed, we knew it. Still desiring to comprehend econometric data, applied economists turn to mis-applying probability theory---especially with regard to the assumptions concerning random errors---and choosing extremely simplistic analytical formulations of inter-relationships. This introduces model bias to an unknown degree. An applied physicist, used to having to match observations to a numerical or analytical model with a firm theoretical basis, modify the model, re-perform the analysis, and then know why, and when, to delete ``outliers'', is at a considerable advantage when quantitatively analyzing econometric data. I treat two cases. One is to determine the household density distribution of total assets, annual income, age, level of education, race, and marital status. Each of these ``independent'' variables is highly correlated with every other but only current annual income and level of education follow a linear relationship. The other is to discover the functional dependence of total assets on the distribution of assets: total assets has an amazingly tight power law dependence on a quadratic function of portfolio composition. Who knew? )

  15. Toward a Rational Educational Policy. An Econometric Analysis of Ontario, Canada, 1950-65 with Tests 1966-68 and Projections 1969-75.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Handa, M. L.

    This report describes some models the author developed to investigate the simultaneous interaction of decisionmakers in a province-wide educational system and to help formulate educational policy for achieving specified enrollments and expenditures. In chapter one, the author describes the models that examine the process of simultaneous…

  16. Taxes in a Labor Supply Model with Joint Wage-Hours Determination.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosen, Harvey S.

    1976-01-01

    Payroll and progressive income taxes play an enormous role in the American fiscal system. The purpose of this study is to present some econometric evidence on the effects of taxes on married women, a group of growing importance in the American labor force. A testable model of labor supply is developed which permits statistical estimation of a…

  17. School Accountability, Autonomy, Choice, and the Level of Student Achievement: International Evidence from PISA 2003. OECD Education Working Papers, No. 13

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wobmann, Ludger; Ludemann, Elke; Schutz, Gabriela; West, Martin R.

    2007-01-01

    Accountability, autonomy, and choice play a leading role in recent school reforms in many countries. This report provides new evidence on whether students perform better in school systems that have such institutional measures in place. We implement an internationally comparative approach within a rigorous micro-econometric framework that accounts…

  18. Adaptive Elastic Net for Generalized Methods of Moments.

    PubMed

    Caner, Mehmet; Zhang, Hao Helen

    2014-01-30

    Model selection and estimation are crucial parts of econometrics. This paper introduces a new technique that can simultaneously estimate and select the model in generalized method of moments (GMM) context. The GMM is particularly powerful for analyzing complex data sets such as longitudinal and panel data, and it has wide applications in econometrics. This paper extends the least squares based adaptive elastic net estimator of Zou and Zhang (2009) to nonlinear equation systems with endogenous variables. The extension is not trivial and involves a new proof technique due to estimators lack of closed form solutions. Compared to Bridge-GMM of Caner (2009), we allow for the number of parameters to diverge to infinity as well as collinearity among a large number of variables, also the redundant parameters set to zero via a data dependent technique. This method has the oracle property, meaning that we can estimate nonzero parameters with their standard limit and the redundant parameters are dropped from the equations simultaneously. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the performance of the new method.

  19. Modeling the assessment of the economic factors impact on the development of social entrepreneurship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Absalyamov, T.; Kundakchyan, R.; Zulfakarova, L.; Zapparova, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The article deals with the research of modern trends in the development of social entrepreneurship in Russia. The results of the research allow the authors to identify a system of factors that affect the development of entrepreneurship in the modern Russian economy. Moreover, the authors argue the regional specificity of the development of social entrepreneurship. The paper considers specific features and formulates the main limitations of the development of entrepreneurship and the competitive environment in the social sphere. The authors suggest an econometric model for assessing the influence of economic factors on the development of socially-oriented entrepreneurship and present an algorithm for calculating its components. The results of the econometric analysis identify the main factors of the change in the performance indicators of entrepreneurial activity and determine the degree of their impact on social entrepreneurship. The results and conclusions can serve as an estimation of the socioeconomic consequences of the sustainability disruption of the entrepreneurial potential realization in the social sphere.

  20. Directory of Energy Information Administration Model Abstracts

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1986-07-16

    This directory partially fulfills the requirements of Section 8c, of the documentation order, which states in part that: The Office of Statistical Standards will annually publish an EIA document based on the collected abstracts and the appendices. This report contains brief statements about each model's title, acronym, purpose, and status, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. All models active through March 1985 are included. The main body of this directory is an alphabetical list of all active EIA models. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systems and the models withinmore » these systems, and Appendix B identifies active EIA models by type (basic, auxiliary, and developing). EIA also leases models developed by proprietary software vendors. Documentation for these proprietary models is the responsibility of the companies from which they are leased. EIA has recently leased models from Chase Econometrics, Inc., Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA). Leased models are not abstracted here. The directory is intended for the use of energy and energy-policy analysts in the public and private sectors.« less

  1. Bayesian Nonparametric Prediction and Statistical Inference

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-09-07

    Kadane, J. (1980), "Bayesian decision theory and the sim- plification of models," in Evaluation of Econometric Models, J. Kmenta and J. Ramsey , eds...the random model and weighted least squares regression," in Evaluation of Econometric Models, ed. by J. Kmenta and J. Ramsey , Academic Press, 197-217...likelihood function. On the other hand, H. Jeffreys’s theory of hypothesis testing covers the most important situations in which the prior is not diffuse. See

  2. A Theory of Bayesian Data Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-10-10

    and the sim- plification of models," in Evaluation of Econometric Models, J. Kmenta and J. 20 Ramsey , eds., Academic Press, 245-268. Edwards, W...Evaluation of Econometric Models, ed. by J. Kmenta and J. Ramsey , Academic Press, 197-217. Hill, Bruce M., (1980c), Review of Specification Searches, by E...also Hill (1970a, 1975a) for earlier thoughts the subject with regard to tests of significance, and Smith.(1986). The Baesi theory of tests of

  3. Time Series Modeling of Army Mission Command Communication Networks: An Event-Driven Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-06-01

    Lehmann, D. R. (1984). How advertising affects sales: Meta- analysis of econometric results. Journal of Marketing Research , 21, 65-74. Barabási, A. L...317-357. Leone, R. P. (1983). Modeling sales-advertising relationships: An integrated time series- econometric approach. Journal of Marketing ... Research , 20, 291-295. McGrath, J. E., & Kravitz, D. A. (1982). Group research. Annual Review of Psychology, 33, 195- 230. Monge, P. R., & Contractor

  4. Application of econometric and ecology analysis methods in physics software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Min Cheol; Hoff, Gabriela; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Kim, Sung Hun; Grazia Pia, Maria; Ronchieri, Elisabetta; Saracco, Paolo

    2017-10-01

    Some data analysis methods typically used in econometric studies and in ecology have been evaluated and applied in physics software environments. They concern the evolution of observables through objective identification of change points and trends, and measurements of inequality, diversity and evenness across a data set. Within each analysis area, various statistical tests and measures have been examined. This conference paper summarizes a brief overview of some of these methods.

  5. Perspectives on econometric modelling to inform policy: a UK qualitative case study of minimum unit pricing of alcohol

    PubMed Central

    Bond, Lyndal; Hilton, Shona

    2014-01-01

    Background: Novel policy interventions may lack evaluation-based evidence. Considerations to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) of alcohol in the UK were informed by econometric modelling (the ‘Sheffield model’). We aim to investigate policy stakeholders’ views of the utility of modelling studies for public health policy. Methods: In-depth qualitative interviews with 36 individuals involved in MUP policy debates (purposively sampled to include civil servants, politicians, academics, advocates and industry-related actors) were conducted and thematically analysed. Results: Interviewees felt familiar with modelling studies and often displayed detailed understandings of the Sheffield model. Despite this, many were uneasy about the extent to which the Sheffield model could be relied on for informing policymaking and preferred traditional evaluations. A tension was identified between this preference for post hoc evaluations and a desire for evidence derived from local data, with modelling seen to offer high external validity. MUP critics expressed concern that the Sheffield model did not adequately capture the ‘real life’ world of the alcohol market, which was conceptualized as a complex and, to some extent, inherently unpredictable system. Communication of modelling results was considered intrinsically difficult but presenting an appropriate picture of the uncertainties inherent in modelling was viewed as desirable. There was general enthusiasm for increased use of econometric modelling to inform future policymaking but an appreciation that such evidence should only form one input into the process. Conclusion: Modelling studies are valued by policymakers as they provide contextually relevant evidence for novel policies, but tensions exist with views of traditional evaluation-based evidence. PMID:24367068

  6. Econometric Model for Optimizing Troop Dining Facility Operations. User’s and Programmer’s Reference Manual,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-12-01

    recipe-menu cross reference list is dependent on the ability to sort various files. At the time the model was first implemented, a FORTRAN callable system...the printer. e. As mentioned in paragraph 2-2d(5), a FORTRAN callable system sort was not available at the time the model was first implemented, and...absence of a FORTRAN callable system sort at the time the menu planning model was placed on the Burroughs meant that most output was not dis- played in

  7. Effects of government incentives on wind innovation in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horner, Nathaniel; Azevedo, Inês; Hounshell, David

    2013-12-01

    In the United States, as elsewhere, state and federal governments have considered or implemented a range of policies to create more sustainable energy generation systems in response to concerns over climate change, security of fuel supply, and environmental impacts. These policies include both regulatory instruments such as renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and market incentives such as tax credits. While these policies are primarily geared towards increasing renewable generation capacity, they can indirectly affect innovation in associated technologies through a ‘demand-pull’ dynamic. Other policies, such as public research and development (R&D) funding, directly incentivize innovation through ‘technology-push’ means. In this letter, we examine these effects on innovation in the United States wind energy industry. We estimate a set of econometric models relating a set of US federal and state policies to patenting activity in wind technologies over the period 1974-2009. We find that RPS policies have had significant positive effects on wind innovation, whereas tax-based incentives have not been particularly effective. We also find evidence that the effects of RPS incentives differ between states. Finally, we find that public R&D funding can be a significant driver of wind innovation, though its effect in the US has been modest.

  8. The stability of coupled renewal-differential equations with econometric applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhoten, R. P.; Aggarwal, J. K.

    1969-01-01

    Concepts and results are presented in the fields of mathematical modeling, economics, and stability analysis. A coupled renewal-differential equation structure is presented as a modeling form for systems possessing hereditary characteristics, and this structure is applied to a model of the Austrian theory of business cycles. For realistic conditions, the system is shown to have an infinite number of poles, and conditions are presented which are both necessary and sufficient for all poles to lie strictly in the left half plane.

  9. An Econometric Model for Estimating IQ Scores and Environmental Influences on the Pattern of IQ Scores Over Time.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kadane, Joseph B.; And Others

    This paper offers a preliminary analysis of the effects of a semi-segregated school system on the IQ's of its students. The basic data consist of IQ scores for fourth, sixth, and eighth grades and associated environmental data obtained from their school records. A statistical model is developed to analyze longitudinal data when both process error…

  10. An Investigation of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines for Modeling and Analysis of Univariate and Semi-Multivariate Time Series Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-09-01

    However, there is no guarantee that this would work; for instance if the data were generated by an ARCH model (Tong, 1990 pp. 116-117) then a simple...Hill, R., Griffiths, W., Lutkepohl, H., and Lee, T., Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics , 2th ed., Wiley, 1985. Kendall, M., Stuart

  11. The Changing Balance: South and North Korean Capabilities for Long-Term Military Competition

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-12-01

    econometric model. Ideally, a model should be estimated over one period and then tested over a different period. If one esti- mates and tests over the...unprecedented impending shift of political leadership from Kim II-Sung to his son, Kim Chong-Il. Section III summarizes an aggregative econometric ...model of the South Korean economy, which we have developed to test the effect on that economy of alternative South Korean military force postures and

  12. Allocation of Future Federal Airport and Airway Costs.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-12-01

    attributable to users are allocated among them based upon Ramsey Pricing which minimizes the distortion in aviation markets resulting from the allocation of...the years following 1992, the producers price Uindex projections made by Wharton Econometric Forecasting . Associates1 were employed. This latter set...and on econometric cost estimation techniques. These are Volumes 3 and 5 respectively. 68 A(A A11 I FSZK7_ ODi Id Lin <j< .99 C-4 x\\ M LL- < P7 Pi0

  13. Econometrics in outcomes research: the use of instrumental variables.

    PubMed

    Newhouse, J P; McClellan, M

    1998-01-01

    We describe an econometric technique, instrumental variables, that can be useful in estimating the effectiveness of clinical treatments in situations when a controlled trial has not or cannot be done. This technique relies upon the existence of one or more variables that induce substantial variation in the treatment variable but have no direct effect on the outcome variable of interest. We illustrate the use of the technique with an application to aggressive treatment of acute myocardial infarction in the elderly.

  14. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

  15. [Econometric and ethical validation of regression logistics. Reducing of the number of patients in the evaluation of mortality].

    PubMed

    Castiel, D; Herve, C

    1992-01-01

    In general, a large number of patients is needed to conclude whether the results of a therapeutic strategy are significant or not. One can lower this number with a logit. The method has been proposed in an article published recently (Cost-utility analysis of early thrombolytic therapy, Pharmaco Economics, 1992). The present article is an essay aimed at validating the method, both from the econometric and ethical points of view.

  16. Oscillatory dynamics of investment and capacity utilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenblatt, R. E.

    2017-01-01

    Capitalist economic systems display a wide variety of oscillatory phenomena whose underlying causes are often not well understood. In this paper, I consider a very simple model of the reciprocal interaction between investment, capacity utilization, and their time derivatives. The model, which gives rise periodic oscillations, predicts qualitatively the phase relations between these variables. These predictions are observed to be consistent in a statistical sense with econometric data from the US economy.

  17. Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates.

    PubMed

    DeCicca, Philip; Kenkel, Don

    2015-06-01

    Econometric estimates of the responsiveness of health-related consumer demand to higher prices are often key ingredients for risk policy analysis. We review the potential advantages and challenges of synthesizing econometric evidence on the price-responsiveness of consumer demand. We draw on examples of research on consumer demand for health-related goods, especially cigarettes. We argue that the overarching goal of research synthesis in this context is to provide policy-relevant evidence for broad-brush conclusions. We propose three main criteria to select among research synthesis methods. We discuss how in principle and in current practice synthesis of research on the price-elasticity of smoking meets our proposed criteria. Our analysis of current practice also contributes to academic research on the specific policy question of the effectiveness of higher cigarette prices to reduce smoking. Although we point out challenges and limitations, we believe more work on research synthesis in this area will be productive and important. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Parameterized examination in econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malinova, Anna; Kyurkchiev, Vesselin; Spasov, Georgi

    2018-01-01

    The paper presents a parameterization of basic types of exam questions in Econometrics. This algorithm is used to automate and facilitate the process of examination, assessment and self-preparation of a large number of students. The proposed parameterization of testing questions reduces the time required to author tests and course assignments. It enables tutors to generate a large number of different but equivalent dynamic questions (with dynamic answers) on a certain topic, which are automatically assessed. The presented methods are implemented in DisPeL (Distributed Platform for e-Learning) and provide questions in the areas of filtering and smoothing of time-series data, forecasting, building and analysis of single-equation econometric models. Questions also cover elasticity, average and marginal characteristics, product and cost functions, measurement of monopoly power, supply, demand and equilibrium price, consumer and product surplus, etc. Several approaches are used to enable the required numerical computations in DisPeL - integration of third-party mathematical libraries, developing our own procedures from scratch, and wrapping our legacy math codes in order to modernize and reuse them.

  19. Scientific and economic potential of the SEASAT Program. [satellite system for global oceanographic data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccandless, S. W.; Miller, B. P.

    1974-01-01

    The SEASAT satellite system is planned as a user-oriented system for timely monitoring of global ocean dynamics and mapping the global ocean geoid. The satellite instrumentation and modular concept are discussed. Operational data capabilities will include oceanographic data services, direct satellite read-out to users, and conversational retrieval and analysis of stored data. A case-study technique, generalized through physical and econometric modeling, indicates potential economic benefit from SEASAT to users in the following areas: ship routing, iceberg reconnaissance, arctic operations, Alaska pipeline ship link, and off-shore oil production.

  20. Billions of Dollars are Involved in Taxation of the Life Insurance Industry -- Some Corrections in the Law are Needed.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-09-17

    leading life companies, 1979 69 i A A TABLES 16 A comparative example of the reserve test Calculation 76 17 Comparative income tax burden of life...pp. 159-61. 2/J. David Cummins, An Econometric Model of the Life Insurance Sector of the U.S. Economy (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1975), p. 57...3/Cummins, Econometric Model, p. 44. 4/Fact Book 1979, p. 32. 23 decades earlier. 1/ This decline has been attributed to two sources. First, as

  1. Long-term US energy outlook

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Friesen, G.

    Chase Econometrics summarizes the assumptions underlying long-term US energy forecasts. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they compare Chase Econometrics forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the DOE Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Scenario B, the mid-range reference case, is emphasized. The purpose of providing Scenario B as well as Scenarios A and C as alternate cases is to show the sensitivity of oil price projections to small swings in energy demand. 4 tables.

  2. 2002 IDA Cost Research Symposium: Estimating the Costs of Transforming U.S. Military Forces

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2002-08-01

    FY00 billing rates for the following contractors and locations: Lockheed- Martin (Fort Worth, Palmdale, and Marietta ), Boeing (Puget Sound, Southern...2001 “Econometric Modeling of Acquisition Category I Systems at the Lockheed- Martin Plant in Marietta , Georgia,” IDA Paper P-3590, July 2001...Improvement Group (CAIG) in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) provides independent cost estimates and reports on life-cycle costs of major

  3. An Econometric Analysis of the Effectiveness of Compensation to Retention

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-03-01

    increased significantly in recent years. A 2005 study estimated that 72 percent of enlisted members had one or more years of college education...DoD only uses basic pay in calculating the retirement annuity. The Office of the Actuary found that while a 20-year retiree may be entitled to 50...percent of RMC ( Actuary , 2007:10). The current retirement system available to eligible uniformed personnel is a defined benefit plan. Employee

  4. Application of an Entropic Approach to Assessing Systems Integration

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-03-01

    two econometrical measures of information efficiency – Shannon entropy and Hurst exponent . Shannon entropy (which is explained in Chapter III) can be...applied to evaluate long-term correlation of time series, while Hurst exponent can be applied to classify the time series in accordance to existence...of trend. Hurst exponent is the statistical measure of time series long-range dependence, and its value falls in the interval [0, 1] – a value in

  5. Hierarchical Architectural Considerations in Econometric Modeling of Manufacturing Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-06-01

    behavioral factors must also be considered. A proposed economic model, to be aligned with ICAM program intentions, should be generic and have the... relevant to the effort and to identify contractors, if any, involved in economic model development. Due to the nature of involvement of other con...tractors with the ICAM program office, information which was thought relevant to the initiation of the current effort was in a lag-time and was

  6. An econometric simulation model of income and electricity demand in Alaska's Railbelt, 1982-2022

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Maddigan, R.J.; Hill, L.J.; Hamblin, D.M.

    1987-01-01

    This report describes the specification of-and forecasts derived from-the Alaska Railbelt Electricity Load, Macroeconomic (ARELM) model. ARELM was developed as an independent, modeling tool for the evaluation of the need for power from the Susitna Hydroelectric Project which has been proposed by the Alaska Power Authority. ARELM is an econometric simulation model consisting of 61 equations - 46 behavioral equations and 15 identities. The system includes two components: (1) ARELM-MACRO which is a system of equations that simulates the performance of both the total Alaskan and Railbelt macroeconomies and (2) ARELM-LOAD which projects electricity-related activity in the Alaskan Railbelt region.more » The modeling system is block recursive in the sense that forecasts of population, personal income, and employment in the Railbelt derived from ARELM-MACRO are used as explanatory variables in ARELM-LOAD to simulate electricity demand, the real average price of electricity, and the number of customers in the Railbelt. Three scenarios based on assumptions about the future price of crude oil are simulated and documented in the report. The simulations, which do not include the cost-of-power impacts of Susitna-based generation, show that the growth rate in Railbelt electricity load is between 2.5 and 2.7% over the 1982 to 2022 forecast period. The forecasting results are consistent with other projections of load growth in the region using different modeling approaches.« less

  7. Identifying the Community Structure of the Food-Trade International Multi-Network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Torreggiani, S.; Mangioni, G.

    2018-01-01

    Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of international food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular, nothing is known about the multi-network's community structure. Here we find that the individual crop-specific layers of the multi-network have densely connected trading groups, a consistent characteristic over the period 2001-2011. Further, the multi-network is characterized by low variability over this period but with substantial heterogeneity across layers in each year. In particular, the layers are mostly assortative: more-intensively connected countries tend to import from and export to countries that are themselves more connected. We also fit econometric models to identify social, economic and geographic factors explaining the probability that any two countries are co-present in the same community. Our estimates indicate that the probability of country pairs belonging to the same food trade community depends more on geopolitical and economic factors-such as geographical proximity and trade-agreement co-membership-than on country economic size and/or income. These community-structure findings of the multi-network are especially valuable for efforts to understand past and emerging dynamics in the global food system, especially those that examine potential 'shocks' to global food trade.

  8. Identifying the community structure of the food-trade international multi-network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torreggiani, S.; Mangioni, G.; Puma, M. J.; Fagiolo, G.

    2018-05-01

    Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of international food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular, nothing is known about the multi-network’s community structure. Here we find that the individual crop-specific layers of the multi-network have densely connected trading groups, a consistent characteristic over the period 2001–2011. Further, the multi-network is characterized by low variability over this period but with substantial heterogeneity across layers in each year. In particular, the layers are mostly assortative: more-intensively connected countries tend to import from and export to countries that are themselves more connected. We also fit econometric models to identify social, economic and geographic factors explaining the probability that any two countries are co-present in the same community. Our estimates indicate that the probability of country pairs belonging to the same food trade community depends more on geopolitical and economic factors—such as geographical proximity and trade-agreement co-membership—than on country economic size and/or income. These community-structure findings of the multi-network are especially valuable for efforts to understand past and emerging dynamics in the global food system, especially those that examine potential ‘shocks’ to global food trade.

  9. An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Travaglini, Guido

    2015-09-01

    Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

  10. Spatial Analysis of China Province-level Perinatal Mortality

    PubMed Central

    XIANG, Kun; SONG, Deyong

    2016-01-01

    Background: Using spatial analysis tools to determine the spatial patterns of China province-level perinatal mortality and using spatial econometric model to examine the impacts of health care resources and different socio-economic factors on perinatal mortality. Methods: The Global Moran’s I index is used to examine whether the spatial autocorrelation exists in selected regions and Moran’s I scatter plot to examine the spatial clustering among regions. Spatial econometric models are used to investigate the spatial relationships between perinatal mortality and contributing factors. Results: The overall Moran’s I index indicates that perinatal mortality displays positive spatial autocorrelation. Moran’s I scatter plot analysis implies that there is a significant clustering of mortality in both high-rate regions and low-rate regions. The spatial econometric models analyses confirm the existence of a direct link between perinatal mortality and health care resources, socio-economic factors. Conclusions: Since a positive spatial autocorrelation has been detected in China province-level perinatal mortality, the upgrading of regional economic development and medical service level will affect the mortality not only in region itself but also its adjacent regions. PMID:27398334

  11. The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - an econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Kaliakatsou, Evridiki; Bell, J Nigel B; Thirtle, Colin; Rose, Daniel; Power, Sally A

    2010-05-01

    Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O(3), with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O(3) impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O(3) tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. The Evolving Urban Community and Military Installations: A Dynamic Spatial Decision Support System for Sustainable Military Communities

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-01-01

    focus on identifying growth by income and housing costs. These, and other models are focused on the city itself and deal with growth over the course...2. This model employs a set of econometric models to project future population, household, and employment. The landscape is gridded into one... model in LEAM (LEAMecon) forecasts changes in output, employment and income over time based on changes in the market, technology, productivity and

  13. Directory of Energy Information Administration model abstracts

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1987-08-11

    This report contains brief statements from the model managers about each model's title, acronym, purpose, and status, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. All models ''active'' through March 1987 are included. The main body of this directory is an alphabetical list of all active EIA models. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systems and the models within these systems, and Appendix B identifies active EIA models by type (basic, auxiliary, and developing). A basic model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being sufficiently important to require sustained supportmore » and public scrutiny. An auxiliary model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being used only occasionally in analyses, and therefore requires minimal levels of documentation. A developing model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being under development and yet of sufficient interest to require a basic level of documentation at a future date. EIA also leases models developed by proprietary software vendors. Documentation for these ''proprietary'' models is the responsibility of the companies from which they are leased. EIA has recently leased models from Chase Econometrics, Inc., Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA). Leased models are not abstracted here. The directory is intended for the use of energy and energy-policy analysts in the public and private sectors.« less

  14. Crystal study and econometric model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1975-01-01

    An econometric model was developed that can be used to predict demand and supply figures for crystals over a time horizon roughly concurrent with that of NASA's Space Shuttle Program - that is, 1975 through 1990. The model includes an equation to predict the impact on investment in the crystal-growing industry. Actually, two models are presented. The first is a theoretical model which follows rather strictly the standard theoretical economic concepts involved in supply and demand analysis, and a modified version of the model was developed which, though not quite as theoretically sound, was testable utilizing existing data sources.

  15. Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals. II. An ARCH econometric-like modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ausloos, Marcel; Nedic, Olgica; Dekanski, Aleksandar; Mrowinski, Maciej J.; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

    2017-02-01

    This paper aims at providing a statistical model for the preferred behavior of authors submitting a paper to a scientific journal. The electronic submission of (about 600) papers to the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society has been recorded for every day from Jan. 01, 2013 till Dec. 31, 2014, together with the acceptance or rejection paper fate. Seasonal effects and editor roles (through desk rejection and subfield editors) are examined. An ARCH-like econometric model is derived stressing the main determinants of the favorite day-of-week process.

  16. The Science of Science Policy: A Federal Research Roadmap

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-11-01

    and Atmospheric Administra on, h p://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ oa /climate/globalwarming.html#q4. T S S P : A F R R4 maintain the na on’s dominance...econometric studies, surveys, case studies, and retrospec ve analyses. Econometric studies include the macroeconomic growth models pioneered by Robert...R A W ha t a re th e be ha vi or al fo un da o ns o f i nn ov a- o n? U nd er st an di ng th e be ha vi or o f i nd iv id ua ls an d

  17. Energy modeling. Volume 2: Inventory and details of state energy models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melcher, A. G.; Underwood, R. G.; Weber, J. C.; Gist, R. L.; Holman, R. P.; Donald, D. W.

    1981-05-01

    An inventory of energy models developed by or for state governments is presented, and certain models are discussed in depth. These models address a variety of purposes such as: supply or demand of energy or of certain types of energy; emergency management of energy; and energy economics. Ten models are described. The purpose, use, and history of the model is discussed, and information is given on the outputs, inputs, and mathematical structure of the model. The models include five models dealing with energy demand, one of which is econometric and four of which are econometric-engineering end-use models.

  18. GARCH modelling of covariance in dynamical estimation of inverse solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galka, Andreas; Yamashita, Okito; Ozaki, Tohru

    2004-12-01

    The problem of estimating unobserved states of spatially extended dynamical systems poses an inverse problem, which can be solved approximately by a recently developed variant of Kalman filtering; in order to provide the model of the dynamics with more flexibility with respect to space and time, we suggest to combine the concept of GARCH modelling of covariance, well known in econometrics, with Kalman filtering. We formulate this algorithm for spatiotemporal systems governed by stochastic diffusion equations and demonstrate its feasibility by presenting a numerical simulation designed to imitate the situation of the generation of electroencephalographic recordings by the human cortex.

  19. Informing Ex Ante Event Studies with Macro-Econometric Evidence on the Structural and Policy Impacts of Terrorism.

    PubMed

    Nassios, Jason; Giesecke, James A

    2018-04-01

    Economic consequence analysis is one of many inputs to terrorism contingency planning. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are being used more frequently in these analyses, in part because of their capacity to accommodate high levels of event-specific detail. In modeling the potential economic effects of a hypothetical terrorist event, two broad sets of shocks are required: (1) physical impacts on observable variables (e.g., asset damage); (2) behavioral impacts on unobservable variables (e.g., investor uncertainty). Assembling shocks describing the physical impacts of a terrorist incident is relatively straightforward, since estimates are either readily available or plausibly inferred. However, assembling shocks describing behavioral impacts is more difficult. Values for behavioral variables (e.g., required rates of return) are typically inferred or estimated by indirect means. Generally, this has been achieved via reference to extraneous literature or ex ante surveys. This article explores a new method. We elucidate the magnitude of CGE-relevant structural shifts implicit in econometric evidence on terrorist incidents, with a view to informing future ex ante event assessments. Ex post econometric studies of terrorism by Blomberg et al. yield macro econometric equations that describe the response of observable economic variables (e.g., GDP growth) to terrorist incidents. We use these equations to determine estimates for relevant (unobservable) structural and policy variables impacted by terrorist incidents, using a CGE model of the United States. This allows us to: (i) compare values for these shifts with input assumptions in earlier ex ante CGE studies; and (ii) discuss how future ex ante studies can be informed by our analysis. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. MOE vs. M&E: considering the difference between measuring strategic effectiveness and monitoring tactical evaluation.

    PubMed

    Diehl, Glen; Major, Solomon

    2015-01-01

    Measuring the effectiveness of military Global Health Engagements (GHEs) has become an area of increasing interest to the military medical field. As a result, there have been efforts to more logically and rigorously evaluate GHE projects and programs; many of these have been based on the Logic and Results Frameworks. However, while these Frameworks are apt and appropriate planning tools, they are not ideally suited to measuring programs' effectiveness. This article introduces military medicine professionals to the Measures of Effectiveness for Defense Engagement and Learning (MODEL) program, which implements a new method of assessment, one that seeks to rigorously use Measures of Effectiveness (vs. Measures of Performance) to gauge programs' and projects' success and fidelity to Theater Campaign goals. While the MODEL method draws on the Logic and Results Frameworks where appropriate, it goes beyond their planning focus by using the latest social scientific and econometric evaluation methodologies to link on-the-ground GHE "lines of effort" to the realization of national and strategic goals and end-states. It is hoped these methods will find use beyond the MODEL project itself, and will catalyze a new body of rigorous, empirically based work, which measures the effectiveness of a broad spectrum of GHE and security cooperation activities. We based our strategies on the principle that it is much more cost-effective to prevent conflicts than it is to stop one once it's started. I cannot overstate the importance of our theater security cooperation programs as the centerpiece to securing our Homeland from the irregular and catastrophic threats of the 21st Century.-GEN James L. Jones, USMC (Ret.). Reprint & Copyright © 2015 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  1. Cost Growth in Weapons Systems: Re-examining Rubber Baselines and Economic Factors

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-03-01

    committee members for their support in this endeavor. They allowed me to test my econometric limits without performing the analysis for me. I...Bruesch-Pagan Het Test Ramsey Omitted Variable Test 6 The adjusted r-squared value indicates that this model explains nearly 16% of the factors...Observations 1150 Chi2(1) 69.01 P(Chi) 0.0000 F(3, 1139) 7.22 P(F) 0.0001 Bruesch-Pagan Het Test Ramsey Omitted Variable Test The results of these two

  2. A multi-resolution approach for optimal mass transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominitz, Ayelet; Angenent, Sigurd; Tannenbaum, Allen

    2007-09-01

    Optimal mass transport is an important technique with numerous applications in econometrics, fluid dynamics, automatic control, statistical physics, shape optimization, expert systems, and meteorology. Motivated by certain problems in image registration and medical image visualization, in this note, we describe a simple gradient descent methodology for computing the optimal L2 transport mapping which may be easily implemented using a multiresolution scheme. We also indicate how the optimal transport map may be computed on the sphere. A numerical example is presented illustrating our ideas.

  3. The value of information as applied to the Landsat Follow-on benefit-cost analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wood, D. B.

    1978-01-01

    An econometric model was run to compare the current forecasting system with a hypothetical (Landsat Follow-on) space-based system. The baseline current system was a hybrid of USDA SRS domestic forecasts and the best known foreign data. The space-based system improved upon the present Landsat by the higher spatial resolution capability of the thematic mapper. This satellite system is a major improvement for foreign forecasts but no better than SRS for domestic forecasts. The benefit analysis was concentrated on the use of Landsat Follow-on to forecast world wheat production. Results showed that it was possible to quantify the value of satellite information and that there are significant benefits in more timely and accurate crop condition information.

  4. Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics.

    PubMed

    Mullahy, J

    1998-06-01

    In health economics applications involving outcomes (y) and covariates (x), it is often the case that the central inferential problems of interest involve E[y/x] and its associated partial effects or elasticities. Many such outcomes have two fundamental statistical properties: y > or = 0; and the outcome y = 0 is observed with sufficient frequency that the zeros cannot be ignored econometrically. This paper (1) describes circumstances where the standard two-part model with homoskedastic retransformation will fail to provide consistent inferences about important policy parameters; and (2) demonstrates some alternative approaches that are likely to prove helpful in applications.

  5. Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernández-Vázquez, Esteban; Moreno, Blanca

    2017-10-01

    Forecast combination has been studied in econometrics for a long time, and the literature has shown the superior performance of forecast combination over individual predictions. However, there is still controversy on which is the best procedure to specify the forecast weights. This paper explores the possibility of using a procedure based on Entropy Econometrics, which allows setting the weights for the individual forecasts as a mixture of different alternatives. In particular, we examine the ability of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed by Golan (J Econom 101(1):165-193, 2001) to combine forecasting models in a context of small sample sizes, a relative common scenario when dealing with time series for regional economies. We test the validity of the proposed approach using a simulation exercise and a real-world example that aims at predicting gross regional product growth rates for a regional economy. The forecasting performance of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed is compared with other combining methods. The simulation results indicate that in scenarios of heavily ill-conditioned datasets the approach suggested dominates other forecast combination strategies. The empirical results are consistent with the conclusions found in the numerical experiment.

  6. Ratio-based estimators for a change point in persistence.

    PubMed

    Halunga, Andreea G; Osborn, Denise R

    2012-11-01

    We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97-116], Kim et al. [Kim, J.Y., Belaire-Franch, J., Badillo Amador, R., 2002. Corringendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series". Journal of Econometrics 109, 389-392] and Busetti and Taylor [Busetti, F., Taylor, A.M.R., 2004. Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 123, 33-66] are inconsistent when a mean (or other deterministic component) is estimated for the process. In such cases, the estimators converge to random variables with upper bound given by the true break date when persistence changes from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. A Monte Carlo study confirms the large sample downward bias and also finds substantial biases in moderate sized samples, partly due to properties at the end points of the search interval.

  7. A comparative analysis of errors in long-term econometric forecasts

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Tepel, R.

    1986-04-01

    The growing body of literature that documents forecast accuracy falls generally into two parts. The first is prescriptive and is carried out by modelers who use simulation analysis as a tool for model improvement. These studies are ex post, that is, they make use of known values for exogenous variables and generate an error measure wholly attributable to the model. The second type of analysis is descriptive and seeks to measure errors, identify patterns among errors and variables and compare forecasts from different sources. Most descriptive studies use an ex ante approach, that is, they evaluate model outputs based onmore » estimated (or forecasted) exogenous variables. In this case, it is the forecasting process, rather than the model, that is under scrutiny. This paper uses an ex ante approach to measure errors in forecast series prepared by Data Resources Incorporated (DRI), Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (Wharton), and Chase Econometrics (Chase) and to determine if systematic patterns of errors can be discerned between services, types of variables (by degree of aggregation), length of forecast and time at which the forecast is made. Errors are measured as the percent difference between actual and forecasted values for the historical period of 1971 to 1983.« less

  8. Modeling the world in a spreadsheet: Environmental simulation on a microcomputer

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cartwright, T.J.

    1993-12-31

    This article focuses on the following: Modeling Natural Systems Blowing Smoke; Atmospheric Dispersion of Air Pollution Running Water; The Underground Transport of Pollutants Preserving the Species; Determining Minimum Viable Population Sustainable Yield; Managing the Forest for the Trees Here Comes the Sun; Solar Energy from a Flat-Plate Collector Modeling Social Systems Macroeconomic Policy; Econometrics and the Klein Model Urban Form; The Lowry Model of Population Distribution Affordable Housing; The Bertaud/World Bank Model Traffic on the Roads; Modeling Trip Generation and Trip Distribution Throwing Things Away; A Model for Waste Management Apples and Oranges; and An Environmental Impact Assessment Model Modelingmore » Artificial Systems Life in a Spreadsheet.« less

  9. Improving the local relevance of large scale water demand predictions: the way forward

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; de Roo, Ad

    2016-04-01

    Securing adequate availability of fresh water is of vital importance for socio-economic development of present and future Europe. Due to strong heterogeneity in climate conditions, some regions receive an abundant supply of water, where other areas almost completely depend on limited river discharge from upstream catchments. Furthermore, water demand differs greatly between regions due to differences in population density and local presence of intensive water using industries and agriculture. This results in many situations all across Europe where competition between water users translates into relative scarcity and economic damage. Additionally it is expected that inter-related economic and demographic developments, as well as climate change are to only further increase the need for efficient management of our water resources in the future. Successful policy making for such complex problems requires a good understanding of the system and reliable forecasting of conditions. The extent and complexity of the water use system however, stands in high contrast with the poor state of available data and lack of reliable predictions for this multi-disciplinary topic. Although the matching of available water to its demand is a European-wide problem, the amount of data with pan-European coverage is limited and usually with a national resolution at best. This is hindering researchers and policy makers because it usually makes large scale water demand predictions little relevant due to the strong regional heterogenic nature of the problem. We present in our study a first attempt of European-wide water demand predictions based on consistent regional data and econometric methods for the household and industry sector. We gathered data on water consumption, water prices and other relevant variables at the highest spatial detail available from national statistical offices and other organizational bodies. This database provides the most detailed up to date picture of present water use and water prices. Subsequently, econometric estimates allow us to make a monetary valuation of water and identify the dominant drivers of domestic and industrial water demand per country. Combined with socio-economic, demographic and climate scenarios we made predictions for future Europe. Since this is a first attempt we obtained mixed results between countries when it comes to data availability and therefore model uncertainty. For some countries we have been able to develop robust predictions based on vast amounts of data while some other countries proved more challenging. We do feel however, that large scale predictions based on regional data are the way forward to provide relevant scientific policy support. In order to improve on our work it is imperative to further expand our database of consistent regional data. We are looking forward to any kind of input and would be very interested in sharing our data to collaborate towards a better understanding of the water use system.

  10. The effect of relationship status on health with dynamic health and persistent relationships.

    PubMed

    Kohn, Jennifer L; Averett, Susan L

    2014-07-01

    The dynamic evolution of health and persistent relationship status pose econometric challenges to disentangling the causal effect of relationships on health from the selection effect of health on relationship choice. Using a new econometric strategy we find that marriage is not universally better for health. Rather, cohabitation benefits the health of men and women over 45, being never married is no worse for health, and only divorce marginally harms the health of younger men. We find strong evidence that unobservable health-related factors can confound estimates. Our method can be applied to other research questions with dynamic dependent and multivariate endogenous variables. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Irrigation water demand: A meta-analysis of price elasticities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheierling, Susanne M.; Loomis, John B.; Young, Robert A.

    2006-01-01

    Metaregression models are estimated to investigate sources of variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of irrigation water demand. Elasticity estimates are drawn from 24 studies reported in the United States since 1963, including mathematical programming, field experiments, and econometric studies. The mean price elasticity is 0.48. Long-run elasticities, those that are most useful for policy purposes, are likely larger than the mean estimate. Empirical results suggest that estimates may be more elastic if they are derived from mathematical programming or econometric studies and calculated at a higher irrigation water price. Less elastic estimates are found to be derived from models based on field experiments and in the presence of high-valued crops.

  12. Do health economic evaluations using observational data provide reliable assessment of treatment effects?

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Economic evaluation in modern health care systems is seen as a transparent scientific framework that can be used to advance progress towards improvements in population health at the best possible value. Despite the perceived superiority that trial-based studies have in terms of internal validity, economic evaluations often employ observational data. In this review, the interface between econometrics and economic evaluation is explored, with emphasis placed on highlighting methodological issues relating to the evaluation of cost-effectiveness within a bivariate framework. Studies that satisfied the eligibility criteria exemplified the use of matching, regression analysis, propensity scores, instrumental variables, as well as difference-in-differences approaches. All studies were reviewed and critically appraised using a structured template. The findings suggest that although state-of-the-art econometric methods have the potential to provide evidence on the causal effects of clinical and policy interventions, their application in economic evaluation is subject to a number of limitations. These range from no credible assessment of key assumptions and scarce evidence regarding the relative performance of different methods, to lack of reporting of important study elements, such as a summary outcome measure and its associated sampling uncertainty. Further research is required to better understand the ways in which observational data should be analysed in the context of the economic evaluation framework. PMID:24229445

  13. Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

    2018-06-01

    Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

  14. Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

    2014-09-01

    There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors.

  15. Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

    2014-01-01

    There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors. PMID:25189200

  16. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  17. Reliability-based econometrics of aerospace structural systems: Design criteria and test options. Ph.D. Thesis - Georgia Inst. of Tech.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.

    1974-01-01

    The design criteria and test options for aerospace structural reliability were investigated. A decision methodology was developed for selecting a combination of structural tests and structural design factors. The decision method involves the use of Bayesian statistics and statistical decision theory. Procedures are discussed for obtaining and updating data-based probabilistic strength distributions for aerospace structures when test information is available and for obtaining subjective distributions when data are not available. The techniques used in developing the distributions are explained.

  18. Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schu, Kathryn L.

    Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements. Neither policy induces major increases in fuel economy.

  19. General principles of institutional risks influence on pension systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nepp, A. N.; Shilkov, A. A.; Sheveleva, A. Y.; Mamedbakov, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    This paper examines the tools used to study the influence of institutional factors on investment returns. The research object are the tools used in the evaluation of institutional risks in the pension system, in particular, the correlation model of factors impacting on the `anti-director' index, econometric estimates combining the different determinants of savings, the model of endogenous institutional change, etc. Research work focusing on issues of institutional factors affecting pension systems (authored by La Porta, Guiso, Gianetti, El-Mekkaouide Freitas, Neyapti B., and others) is reviewed. The model is examined in terms of the impact of institutional risks on pension systems, especially with regard to the funded part. The study identified the following factors that affect financial institutions, including pension institutions: management quality, regulation quality, rule of law, political stability, and corruption control.

  20. Identifying economics' place amongst academic disciplines: a science or a social science?

    PubMed

    Hudson, John

    2017-01-01

    Different academic disciplines exhibit different styles, including styles in journal titles. Using data from the 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF) in the UK we are able to identify the stylistic trends of different disciplines using 155,552 journal titles across all disciplines. Cluster analysis is then used to group the different disciplines together. The resulting identification fits the social sciences, the sciences and the arts and humanities reasonably well. Economics overall, fits best with philosophy, but the linkage is weak. When we divided economics into papers published in theory, econometrics and the remaining journals, the first two link with mathematics and computer science, particularly econometrics, and thence the sciences. The rest of economics then links with business and thence the social sciences.

  1. Residential demand for energy. Volume 1: Residential energy demand in the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, L. D.; Blattenberger, G. R.; Rennhack, R. K.

    1982-04-01

    Updated and improved versions of the residential energy demand models that are currently used in EPRI's Demand 80/81 Model are presented. The primary objective of the study is the development and estimation of econometric demand models that take into account in a theoretically appropriate way the problems caused by decreasing-block pricing in the sale of electricity and natural gas. An ancillary objective is to take into account the impact on electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil demands of differences and changes in the availability of natural gas. Econometric models of residential demand are estimated for all three fuel tyes using time series data by state. Price and income elasticities for a number of alternative models are presented.

  2. Economics of technological change - A joint model for the aircraft and airline industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kneafsey, J. T.; Taneja, N. K.

    1981-01-01

    The principal focus of this econometric model is on the process of technological change in the U.S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries. The problem of predicting the rate of introduction of current technology aircraft into an airline's fleet during the period of research, development, and construction for new technology aircraft arises in planning aeronautical research investments. The approach in this model is a statistical one. It attempts to identify major factors that influence transport aircraft manufacturers and airlines, and to correlate them with the patterns of delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk carriers. The functional form of the model has been derived from several earlier econometric models on the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change.

  3. Econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. Volume III. Final report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Berndt, E.R.; Fraumeni, B.M.; Hudson, E.A.

    1981-03-01

    This report presents the econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. There are two key components of 9DGEM - the model of household behavior and the model of produconcrneer behavior. The household model is concerned with decisions on consumption, saving, labor supply and the composition of consumption. The producer model is concerned with output price formation and determination of input patterns and purchases for each of the nine producing sectors. These components form the behavioral basis of DGEM. The remaining components are concerned with constraints, balance conditions, accounting, and government revenues and expenditures (these elements aremore » developed in the report on the model specification).« less

  4. A national econometric forecasting model of the dental sector.

    PubMed Central

    Feldstein, P J; Roehrig, C S

    1980-01-01

    The Econometric Model of the the Dental Sector forecasts a broad range of dental sector variables, including dental care prices; the amount of care produced and consumed; employment of hygienists, dental assistants, and clericals; hours worked by dentists; dental incomes; and number of dentists. These forecasts are based upon values specified by the user for the various factors which help determine the supply an demand for dental care, such as the size of the population, per capita income, the proportion of the population covered by private dental insurance, the cost of hiring clericals and dental assistants, and relevant government policies. In a test of its reliability, the model forecast dental sector behavior quite accurately for the period 1971 through 1977. PMID:7461974

  5. Explaining regional variations in health care utilization between Swiss cantons using panel econometric models

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In spite of a detailed and nation-wide legislation frame, there exist large cantonal disparities in consumed quantities of health care services in Switzerland. In this study, the most important factors of influence causing these regional disparities are determined. The findings can also be productive for discussing the containment of health care consumption in other countries. Methods Based on the literature, relevant factors that cause geographic disparities of quantities and costs in western health care systems are identified. Using a selected set of these factors, individual panel econometric models are calculated to explain the variation of the utilization in each of the six largest health care service groups (general practitioners, specialist doctors, hospital inpatient, hospital outpatient, medication, and nursing homes) in Swiss mandatory health insurance (MHI). The main data source is 'Datenpool santésuisse', a database of Swiss health insurers. Results For all six health care service groups, significant factors influencing the utilization frequency over time and across cantons are found. A greater supply of service providers tends to have strong interrelations with per capita consumption of MHI services. On the demand side, older populations and higher population densities represent the clearest driving factors. Conclusions Strategies to contain consumption and costs in health care should include several elements. In the federalist Swiss system, the structure of regional health care supply seems to generate significant effects. However, the extent of driving factors on the demand side (e.g., social deprivation) or financing instruments (e.g., high deductibles) should also be considered. PMID:22413884

  6. India's pulp and paper industry: Productivity and energy efficiency

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Schumacher, Katja

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's pulp and paper sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. The authors derive both statistical and econometric estimates of productivity growth for this sector. Their results show that productivity declined over the observed period from 1973-74 to 1993-94 by 1.1% p.a. Using a translog specification the econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's pulp and paper sector hasmore » been biased towards the use of energy and material, while it has been capital and labor saving. The decline in productivity was caused largely by the protection afforded by high tariffs on imported paper products and other policies, which allowed inefficient, small plants to enter the market and flourish. Will these trends continue into the future, particularly where energy use is concerned? The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency undergoing in the sector. Their analysis shows that with liberalization of the sector, and tighter environmental controls, the industry is moving towards higher efficiency and productivity. However, the analysis also shows that because these improvements are being hampered by significant financial and other barriers the industry might have a long way to go.« less

  7. Using directed information for influence discovery in interconnected dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, Arvind; Hero, Alfred O.; States, David J.; Engel, James Douglas

    2008-08-01

    Structure discovery in non-linear dynamical systems is an important and challenging problem that arises in various applications such as computational neuroscience, econometrics, and biological network discovery. Each of these systems have multiple interacting variables and the key problem is the inference of the underlying structure of the systems (which variables are connected to which others) based on the output observations (such as multiple time trajectories of the variables). Since such applications demand the inference of directed relationships among variables in these non-linear systems, current methods that have a linear assumption on structure or yield undirected variable dependencies are insufficient. Hence, in this work, we present a methodology for structure discovery using an information-theoretic metric called directed time information (DTI). Using both synthetic dynamical systems as well as true biological datasets (kidney development and T-cell data), we demonstrate the utility of DTI in such problems.

  8. Intrafirm planning and mathematical modeling of owner's equity in industrial enterprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponomareva, S. V.; Zheleznova, I. V.

    2018-05-01

    The article aims to review the different approaches to intrafirm planning of owner's equity in industrial enterprises. Since charter capital, additional capital and reserve capital do not change in the process of enterprise activity, the main interest lies on the field of share repurchases from shareholders and retained earnings within the owner's equity of the enterprise. In order to study the effect of share repurchases on the activities of the enterprise, let us use such mathematical methods as event study and econometric modeling. This article describes the step-by-step algorithm of carrying out event study and justifies the choice of Logit model in econometric analysis. The article represents basic results of conducted regression analysis on the effect of share repurchases on the key financial indicators in industrial enterprises.

  9. Econometrics 101: forecasting demystified

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Crow, R.T.

    1980-05-01

    Forecasting by econometric modeling is described in a commonsense way which omits much of the technical jargon. A trend of continuous growth is no longer an adequate forecasting tool. Today's forecasters must consider rapid changes in price, policies, regulations, capital availability, and the cost of being wrong. A forecasting model is designed by identifying future influences on electricity purchases and quantifying their relationships to each other. A record is produced which can be evaluated and used to make corrections in the models. Residential consumption is used to illustrate how this works and to demonstrate how power consumption is also relatedmore » to the purchase and use of equipment. While models can quantify behavioral relationships, they cannot account for the impacts of non-price factors because of limited data. (DCK)« less

  10. Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1979-01-01

    Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

  11. Spatial Econometric Research on the Relationship between Highway Construction and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from the Nationwide Panel Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, N. J.; Li, W. J.; Li, Y.; Bai, Y. F.

    2017-12-01

    Based on spatial panel data from 2010 to 2016 in China, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between highway construction and regional economic growth by means of spatial econometric model. The results show that there is positive spatial correlation on regional economic growth in China, and strong spatial dependences between some provinces and cities appear, specifically, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang and other eastern coastal areas show high-high agglomeration trend, the Pearl River Delta region presents high-low agglomeration trend; In terms of nationwide provinces and municipalities, a province’s highway construction investment for their own province and the neighboring provinces has pulling effect on economic growth to a certain extent, and the direct effect is more obvious.

  12. Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2011-06-01

    Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

  13. Regional economic forecasting models: Suitability for use in the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    South, D.W.; McDonald, J.F.; Oakland, W.H.

    1990-02-01

    In preparation for the Phase 1 test runs of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program Task Group B (TG-B) emissions model set, the need arose to provide regional economic data directly to the sector models in the model set and to the Argonne Regionalization Activity Module (ARAM). Candidate regional economic models were reviewed, and the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), model was selected. This review of models, conducted during 1984--1985, is documented in this report. Even though considerable time has elapsed since then, the model descriptions and critique contained in this report are still fairly accurate and the recommendations should stillmore » be valid. There have been, however, some significant changes: (1) two of the economic consulting firms whose models were reviewed, Chase Econometrics and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, have merged, (2) the DRI Regional Information System (DRI/RIS) now constructs a regional measure of industrial value of shipments, which will be used as the industrial activity variable (instead of employment) in the Phase 2 scenario analyses, and (3) based on recommendations from the third-party review of the TG-B model set, price-sensitive regional equations were developed to provide inputs, not already produced by the DRI/RIS model, directly to the sector models, thus eliminating the function served by ARAM. 44 refs., 12 figs., 44 tabs.« less

  14. Handling preference heterogeneity for river services' adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Andreopoulos, Dimitrios; Damigos, Dimitrios; Comiti, Francesco; Fischer, Christian

    2015-09-01

    Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents' adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Potential benefits of toothpaste advertising on dental health.

    PubMed

    Kioulafas, K E; Athanassouli, T N; Weatherell, J A

    1989-03-01

    This paper considers the effect of advertising on the sales of various brands of toothpaste. It has attempted to investigate the relationship between the level of sales of a brand and those of its competitors. Econometric estimations of the demand-function for toothpaste have been made and the authors have tried to determine the interrelationships between advertisement and toothpaste sales. The findings cast doubt upon the efficiency of the present system of competitive advertisement and suggest a possible alternative approach to the marketing of toothpaste which could increase sales and, at the same time, beneficially influence dental health.

  16. The development and utilization of solar photovoltaic cells: An assessment of the potential for a new energy technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, K. J.

    1981-01-01

    The Government set the goal of accelerating the adaptation of photovoltaics by reducing system costs to a competitive level and overcoming the technical, institutional, legal, environmental, and social barriers impeding the diffusion of photovoltaic technology. The technology of silicon solar arrays was examined and the status of development efforts are reviewed. The political, legal, economic, social, and environmental issues are discussed, and several methods for selecting development projects are described. A number of market forecasting techniques, including time trend, judgemental, and econometric methods, were reviewed, and the results of these models are presented.

  17. 77 FR 28607 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-15

    ... bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well as representatives of transplant...; law and bioethics; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics; organ procurement organizations...

  18. Load balancing for massively-parallel soft-real-time systems

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hailperin, M.

    1988-09-01

    Global load balancing, if practical, would allow the effective use of massively-parallel ensemble architectures for large soft-real-problems. The challenge is to replace quick global communications, which is impractical in a massively-parallel system, with statistical techniques. In this vein, the author proposes a novel approach to decentralized load balancing based on statistical time-series analysis. Each site estimates the system-wide average load using information about past loads of individual sites and attempts to equal that average. This estimation process is practical because the soft-real-time systems of interest naturally exhibit loads that are periodic, in a statistical sense akin to seasonality in econometrics.more » It is shown how this load-characterization technique can be the foundation for a load-balancing system in an architecture employing cut-through routing and an efficient multicast protocol.« less

  19. Estimating irrigation water demand in the Moroccan Drâa Valley using contingent valuation.

    PubMed

    Storm, Hugo; Heckelei, Thomas; Heidecke, Claudia

    2011-10-01

    Irrigation water management is crucial for agricultural production and livelihood security in Morocco as in many other parts of the world. For the implementation of an effective water management, knowledge about farmers' demand for irrigation water is crucial to assess reactions to water pricing policy, to establish a cost-benefit analysis of water supply investments or to determine the optimal water allocation between different users. Previously used econometric methods providing this information often have prohibitive data requirements. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is adjusted to derive a demand function for irrigation water along farmers' willingness to pay for one additional unit of surface water or groundwater. An application in the Middle Drâa Valley in Morocco shows that the method provides reasonable results in an environment with limited data availability. For analysing the censored survey data, the Least Absolute Deviation estimator was found to be a more suitable alternative to the Tobit model as errors are heteroscedastic and non-normally distributed. The adjusted CVM to derive demand functions is especially attractive for water scarce countries under limited data availability. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Econometrics of exhaustible resource supply: a theory and an application

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Epple, D.

    1983-01-01

    This report takes a major step toward developing a fruitful approach to empirical analysis of resource supply. It is the first empirical application of resource theory that has successfully integrated the effects of depletion of nonrenewable resources with the effects of uncertainty about future costs and prices on supply behavior. Thus, the model is a major improvement over traditional engineering-optimization models that assume complete certainty, and over traditional econometrics models that are only implicitly related to the theory of resource supply. The model is used to test hypotheses about interdependence of oil and natural gas discoveries, depletion, ultimate recovery, andmore » the role of price expectations. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using exhaustible resource theory in the development of empirically testable models. 19 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs.« less

  1. Computationally intensive econometrics using a distributed matrix-programming language.

    PubMed

    Doornik, Jurgen A; Hendry, David F; Shephard, Neil

    2002-06-15

    This paper reviews the need for powerful computing facilities in econometrics, focusing on concrete problems which arise in financial economics and in macroeconomics. We argue that the profession is being held back by the lack of easy-to-use generic software which is able to exploit the availability of cheap clusters of distributed computers. Our response is to extend, in a number of directions, the well-known matrix-programming interpreted language Ox developed by the first author. We note three possible levels of extensions: (i) Ox with parallelization explicit in the Ox code; (ii) Ox with a parallelized run-time library; and (iii) Ox with a parallelized interpreter. This paper studies and implements the first case, emphasizing the need for deterministic computing in science. We give examples in the context of financial economics and time-series modelling.

  2. Econometric analysis of the impact of the relationship of GDP and the pension capital

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nepp, A. N.; Amiryan, A. A.

    2016-12-01

    The article demonstrates the impact of institutional risks on indicators of compulsory pension insurance and describes the results of a comparative analysis of investment risks faced by the pension systems of the Russian Federation and OECD countries. Efficiency of private companies managing pension funds in Russia and OECD countries is compared and analyzed to show the necessity to liberalize requirements placed on investments of pension savings funds. On the basis of the available statistical data, the article puts forward and discusses the hypothesis that increasing of the basic indicators of the pension system is possible by reducing its institutional risks. It is concluded that if the institutional risks are reduced and the level of trust increases, there will be enhance growth in the pension system key indicators, such as pension payments and the replacement rate.

  3. Properties of Zero-Free Transfer Function Matrices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D. O. Anderson, Brian; Deistler, Manfred

    Transfer functions of linear, time-invariant finite-dimensional systems with more outputs than inputs, as arise in factor analysis (for example in econometrics), have, for state-variable descriptions with generic entries in the relevant matrices, no finite zeros. This paper gives a number of characterizations of such systems (and indeed square discrete-time systems with no zeros), using state-variable, impulse response, and matrix-fraction descriptions. Key properties include the ability to recover the input values at any time from a bounded interval of output values, without any knowledge of an initial state, and an ability to verify the no-zero property in terms of a property of the impulse response coefficient matrices. Results are particularized to cases where the transfer function matrix in question may or may not have a zero at infinity or a zero at zero.

  4. Why do vulnerability cycles matter in financial networks?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, Thiago Christiano; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; Guerra, Solange Maria

    2017-04-01

    We compare two widely employed models that estimate systemic risk: DebtRank and Differential DebtRank. We show that not only network cyclicality but also the average vulnerability of banks are essential concepts that contribute to widening the gap in the systemic risk estimates of both approaches. We find that systemic risk estimates are the same whenever the network has no cycles. However, in case the network presents cyclicality, then we need to inspect the average vulnerability of banks to estimate the underestimation gap. We find that the gap is small regardless of the cyclicality of the network when its average vulnerability is large. In contrast, the observed gap follows a quadratic behavior when the average vulnerability is small or intermediate. We show results using an econometric exercise and draw guidelines both on artificial and real-world financial networks.

  5. Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system.

    PubMed

    Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Shupei; Sun, Xiaoqi; Hao, Xiaoqing; An, Feng

    2018-03-01

    Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion.

  6. Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Shupei; Sun, Xiaoqi; Hao, Xiaoqing; An, Feng

    2018-01-01

    Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion. PMID:29657804

  7. Scale Mixture Models with Applications to Bayesian Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Zhaohui S.; Damien, Paul; Walker, Stephen

    2003-11-01

    Scale mixtures of uniform distributions are used to model non-normal data in time series and econometrics in a Bayesian framework. Heteroscedastic and skewed data models are also tackled using scale mixture of uniform distributions.

  8. Estimating Environmental Compliance Costs for Industry (1981)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The paper discusses the pros and cons of existing approaches to compliance cost estimation such as ex post survey estimation and ex ante estimation techniques (input cost accounting methods, engineering process models and, econometric models).

  9. Market Anatomy of a Drought: Modeling Barge and Corn Market Adaptation to Reduced Rainfall and Low Mississippi River Water Levels During the 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foster, B.; Characklis, G. W.; Thurman, W. N.

    2015-12-01

    In mid 2012, a severe drought swept across the Midwest, the heartland of corn production in the U.S. When the drought persisted into late Fall, corn markets were affected in two distinct ways: (1) reduced rainfall led to projected and actual corn yields that were lower than expected and (2) navigation restrictions, a result of low water levels on the Mississippi River, disrupted barge transportation, the most common and inexpensive mode for moving corn to many markets. Both (1) and (2) led to significant financial losses, but due to the complexity of the economic system and the coincidence of two different market impacts, the size of the role that low water levels played wass unclear. This is important, as losses related to low water levels are used to justify substantial investments in dredging activities on the Mississippi River. An "engineering" model of the system, suggests that low water levels should drive large increases in barge and corn prices, while some econometric models suggest that water levels explain very little of the changes in barge rates and corn prices. Employing a model that integrates both the engineering and economic elements of the system indicates that corn prices and barge rates during the drought display spatial and temporal behavior that is difficult to explain using either the engineering or econometric models alone. This integrated model accounts for geographic and temporal variations in drought impacts and identifies unique market responses to four different sets of conditions over the drought's length. Results illustrate that corn and barge price responses during the drought were a product of comingled, but distinct, reactions to both supply changes and navigation disruptions. Results also provide a more structured description of how the economic system that governs corn allocation interacts with the Mississippi River system during drought. As both public and private parties discuss potential managerial or infrastructural methods for keeping shipping channels open during drought, the results of this work should help them to decide how different interventions might benefit or hurt barge operators and/or corn sellers.

  10. Identifiability and Problems of Model Selection for Time-Series Analysis in Econometrics.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-01-01

    Z is defined by (2.1) Fx + ( y( If x(t), T c R;dt for discrete-time, that is, with the time set T = Z = integers, a system F is given by * The...O1/14/81 cb (2.2) x(t + 1) Fx (t) + Gu(t), y(t) = Hx(t), t c Z. In (2.1-2.2), the real (or complex) vectors x, u, and y are called state, inpuI, and...compulsory. Astro - loryi has been tried. No optimist would quarrel with the declaration of one of von NE!MAfrIiI’s direct successors that "exposure to the

  11. Research without billing data. Econometric estimation of patient-specific costs.

    PubMed

    Barnett, P G

    1997-06-01

    This article describes a method for computing the cost of care provided to individual patients in health care systems that do not routinely generate billing data, but gather information on patient utilization and total facility costs. Aggregate data on cost and utilization were used to estimate how costs vary with characteristics of patients and facilities of the US Department of Veterans Affairs. A set of cost functions was estimated, taking advantage of the department-level organization of the data. Casemix measures were used to determine the costs of acute hospital and long-term care. Hospitalization for medical conditions cost an average of $5,642 per US Health Care Financing Administration diagnosis-related group weight; surgical hospitalizations cost $11,836. Nursing home care cost $197.33 per day, intermediate care cost $280.66 per day, psychiatric care cost $307.33 per day, and domiciliary care cost $111.84 per day. Outpatient visits cost an average of $90.36. These estimates include the cost of physician services. The econometric method presented here accounts for variation in resource use caused by casemix that is not reflected in length of stay and for the effects of medical education, research, facility size, and wage rates. Data on non-Veteran's Affairs hospital stays suggest that the method accounts for 40% of the variation in acute hospital care costs and is superior to cost estimates based on length of stay or diagnosis-related group weight alone.

  12. Out-of-pocket expenditures for pharmaceuticals: lessons from the Austrian household budget survey.

    PubMed

    Sanwald, Alice; Theurl, Engelbert

    2017-05-01

    Paying pharmaceuticals out of pocket is an important source of financing pharmaceutical consumption. Only limited empirical knowledge is available on the determinants of these expenditures. In this article we analyze which characteristics of private households influence out-of-pocket pharmaceutical expenditure (OOPPE) in Austria. We use cross-sectional information on OOPPE and household characteristics provided by the Austrian household budget survey 2009/10. We split pharmaceutical expenditures into the two components prescription fees and over-the-counter (OTC) expenditures. To adjust for the specific characteristics of the data, we compare different econometric approaches: a two-part model, hurdle model, generalized linear model and zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. The finally selected econometric approaches give a quite consistent picture. The probability of expenditures of both types is strongly influenced by the household structure. It increases with age, doctoral visits and the presence of a female householder. The education level and income only increase the probability of OTC pharmaceuticals. The level of OTC expenditures remains widely unexplained while the household structure and age influence the expenditures for prescription fees. Insurance characteristics of private households, either private or public, play a minor role in explaining the expenditure levels in all specifications. This refers to a homogeneous and comprehensive provision of pharmaceuticals in the public part of the Austrian health care system. The article gives useful insights into the determinants of pharmaceutical expenditures of private households and supplements the previous research that focuses on the individual level.

  13. Evaluation of factors affecting prescribing behaviors, in iran pharmaceutical market by econometric methods.

    PubMed

    Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies.

  14. Panel data analysis of cardiotocograph (CTG) data.

    PubMed

    Horio, Hiroyuki; Kikuchi, Hitomi; Ikeda, Tomoaki

    2013-01-01

    Panel data analysis is a statistical method, widely used in econometrics, which deals with two-dimensional panel data collected over time and over individuals. Cardiotocograph (CTG) which monitors fetal heart rate (FHR) using Doppler ultrasound and uterine contraction by strain gage is commonly used in intrapartum treatment of pregnant women. Although the relationship between FHR waveform pattern and the outcome such as umbilical blood gas data at delivery has long been analyzed, there exists no accumulated FHR patterns from large number of cases. As time-series economic fluctuations in econometrics such as consumption trend has been studied using panel data which consists of time-series and cross-sectional data, we tried to apply this method to CTG data. The panel data composed of a symbolized segment of FHR pattern can be easily handled, and a perinatologist can get the whole FHR pattern view from the microscopic level of time-series FHR data.

  15. Optimizing distance-based methods for large data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholl, Tobias; Brenner, Thomas

    2015-10-01

    Distance-based methods for measuring spatial concentration of industries have received an increasing popularity in the spatial econometrics community. However, a limiting factor for using these methods is their computational complexity since both their memory requirements and running times are in {{O}}(n^2). In this paper, we present an algorithm with constant memory requirements and shorter running time, enabling distance-based methods to deal with large data sets. We discuss three recent distance-based methods in spatial econometrics: the D&O-Index by Duranton and Overman (Rev Econ Stud 72(4):1077-1106, 2005), the M-function by Marcon and Puech (J Econ Geogr 10(5):745-762, 2010) and the Cluster-Index by Scholl and Brenner (Reg Stud (ahead-of-print):1-15, 2014). Finally, we present an alternative calculation for the latter index that allows the use of data sets with millions of firms.

  16. Evaluation of Factors Affecting Prescribing Behaviors, in Iran Pharmaceutical Market by Econometric Methods

    PubMed Central

    Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies. PMID:25901174

  17. Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rexroth, Paul E.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Hendrickson, Gerald A.

    2004-09-01

    This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a resultmore » of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.« less

  18. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve: United States energy security, oil politics, and petroleum reserves policies in the twentieth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaubouef, Bruce Andre

    The history of U.S. petroleum reserves policies in the twentieth century, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) program, provides a case study of the economic and political aspects of national security, and shows the ways in which the American political economy influences national security. One key problem plagued federal petroleum reserve programs and proposals throughout the twentieth century. In a political economy which traditionally placed strong emphasis upon the sanctity of private property and free markets, could the government develop an emergency petroleum reserve policy despite opposition from the private sector? Previous literature on the SPR and oil-stockpiling programs has largely disregarded the historical perspective, focusing instead upon econometric models, suggesting future oil-stockpiling policy options. This study will also make conclusions about the future of governmental oil-stockpiling policies, particularly with regard to the SPR program, but it will do so informed by a systematic history of the emergency petroleum reserve impulse in the twentieth century. Through a study of the emergency petroleum reserve impulse, one can see how the American political economy of oil and energy changed over the twentieth century. As petroleum became crucial to the military and then economic security of the United States, the federal government sought to develop emergency petroleum reserves first for the military, then for the civilian economy. But while the American petroleum industry could deliver the energy "goods" to American energy consumers at a reasonable price, the companies reigned supreme in the political equation. While that was true, federal petroleum reserve programs and proposals conflicted with and were overwhelmed by the historic American tradition of individual economic and private property rights. The depletion of American petroleum reserves changed that political equation, and the ensuing energy crises of the 1970s not only brought the issue of national energy autonomy into the realm of national security considerations, but also allowed for an unprecedented level of government intervention into the marketplace of oil and energy in peacetime. The federal government assumed the role of protecting and serving the interests of energy consumers, a role which had previously been the sole purview of the private sector. What resulted was a complex, chaotic, and controversial regulatory nightmare that highlighted the deficiencies of micro-management, and stoked the political momentum for deregulation in the 1980s, which continued into the 1990s. Gradually, government micro-management of the energy economy was abandoned. That left the SPR, a passive, market-conforming policy tool as the government's primary mechanism for combating energy crises. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

  19. 49 CFR 659.23 - System security plan: contents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false System security plan: contents. 659.23 Section 659... State Oversight Agency § 659.23 System security plan: contents. The system security plan must, at a... system security plan; and (e) Document the rail transit agency's process for making its system security...

  20. Integrating transit and urban form : final report, December 2008.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2008-09-01

    This study develops an integrated behavioral model of transit patronage and urban form. Although herein focused on transit, the framework can be easily generalized to study other forms of travel. Advanced econometric methods are used to test specific...

  1. 78 FR 49276 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-13

    ...; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics; organ procurement organizations; transplant candidates..., non-physician transplant professions, nursing, epidemiology, immunology, law and bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well as representatives of transplant candidates, transplant...

  2. 75 FR 57807 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-09-22

    ... bioethics; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics; organ procurement organizations; transplant..., non-physician transplant professions, nursing, epidemiology, immunology, law and bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well as representatives of transplant candidates, transplant...

  3. HIV prevalence and poverty in Africa: micro- and macro-econometric evidences applied to Burkina Faso.

    PubMed

    Lachaud, Jean-Pierre

    2007-05-01

    Based on the data of the Demographic and Health Survey, and of the Household Priority Survey, carried out in 2003, the present study, examining the factors of HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso, provides two conclusions. Firstly, the fight against poverty is not necessarily a means of reducing simultaneously and drastically HIV/AIDS prevalence, an assertion based on several elements of empirical analysis. First of all, the micro-econometric estimates of the probit models suggest a positive relationship between HIV prevalence in adult women and men, and living standards of individuals. Then, the macro-econometric approach reveals the existence of a positive (negative) relationship between, on the one hand, the level of regional HIV prevalence, and, on the other hand, the average monetary provincial standard of living (poverty) of households. At the same time, the relationship between HIV prevalence and poverty, apprehended at the regional level, is not linear. Secondly, and correlatively, the relationship between HIV prevalence and poverty is called into question. First of all, some structural factors may contribute to a distortion of the relationship between resources of households and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. This may be due, on the one hand, to the persistence of cognitive and behavioural factors inherent in a traditional society, and in particular, to the fact that the social construction of female attributes and roles confers to men a statute of "decision-makers" with regard to sexual intercourse, while the persistence of secular beliefs contributes to minimizing the perception of HIV/AIDS in terms of risk, independently of standards of living. In addition, the enclavement of Burkina Faso required development of road and railway traffic with neighbouring countries, in particular Côte d'Ivoire. Therefore, it may be that the structural conditions of the process of development of Burkina Faso, concomitant with significant flows of the exchange of goods, services and labour with a country where the prevalence of the HIV is particularly high, constitute an element of an explanation of the positive relationship between the resources of households and HIV seroprevalence. Also, factors related to the economic situation probably contributed to reinforcing the opposite relationship between HIV seroprevalence and poverty, the macro-econometric analysis highlighting a direct relationship between the massive return of migrants of Côte d'Ivoire and the level of HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso.

  4. Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used to describe the connection between shocks and food prices, and to demonstrate the importance of these metrics in overall outcomes in food-insecure communities.

  5. Biodiversity Hotspots, Climate Change, and Agricultural Development: Global Limits of Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, U. A.; Rasche, L.; Schmid, E.; Habel, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are threatened by climate and land management change. These changes result from complex and heterogeneous interactions of human activities and natural processes. Here, we study the potential change in pristine area in 33 global biodiversity hotspots within this century under four climate projections (representative concentration pathways) and associated population and income developments (shared socio-economic pathways). A coupled modelling framework computes the regional net expansion of crop and pasture lands as result of changes in food production and consumption. We use a biophysical crop simulation model to quantify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, water, and nutrient emissions for alternative crop management systems in more than 100 thousand agricultural land polygons (homogeneous response units) and for each climate projection. The crop simulation model depicts detailed soil, weather, and management information and operates with a daily time step. We use time series of livestock statistics to link livestock production to feed and pasture requirements. On the food consumption side, we estimate national demand shifts in all countries by processing population and income growth projections through econometrically estimated Engel curves. Finally, we use a global agricultural sector optimization model to quantify the net change in pristine area in all biodiversity hotspots under different adaptation options. These options include full-scale global implementation of i) crop yield maximizing management without additional irrigation, ii) crop yield maximizing management with additional irrigation, iii) food yield maximizing crop mix adjustments, iv) food supply maximizing trade flow adjustments, v) healthy diets, and vi) combinations of the individual options above. Results quantify the regional potentials and limits of major agricultural producer and consumer adaptation options for the preservation of pristine areas in biodiversity hotspots. Results also quantify the conflicts between food and water security, biodiversity protection, and climate change mitigation.

  6. Secure key storage and distribution

    DOEpatents

    Agrawal, Punit

    2015-06-02

    This disclosure describes a distributed, fault-tolerant security system that enables the secure storage and distribution of private keys. In one implementation, the security system includes a plurality of computing resources that independently store private keys provided by publishers and encrypted using a single security system public key. To protect against malicious activity, the security system private key necessary to decrypt the publication private keys is not stored at any of the computing resources. Rather portions, or shares of the security system private key are stored at each of the computing resources within the security system and multiple security systems must communicate and share partial decryptions in order to decrypt the stored private key.

  7. Systems Security Engineering

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-08-22

    Commission (IEC). “Information technology — Security techniques — Code of practice for information security management ( ISO /IEC 27002 ...Information technology — Security techniques — Information security management systems —Requirements ( ISO /IEC 27002 ),”, “Information technology — Security...was a draft ISO standard on Systems and software engineering, Systems and software assurance [18]. Created by systems engineers for systems

  8. Valuing Eastern Visibility: A Field Test of the Contingent Valuation Method (1993)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The report describes the Eastern visibility survey design in detail, presents the implementation of and data obtained from the surveys, provides summary statistics on the overall response and discusses the econometric techniques employed to value benefits.

  9. ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS FOR WATERSHED RESTORATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This book overviews non-market valuation, input-output analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and presents case studies from the Mid Atlantic Highland region, with all but the bare minimum econometrics, statistics, and math excluded or relegated to an appendix. It is a non-market valu...

  10. 78 FR 67103 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-08

    ... analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science... following disciplines: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social... expertise in such areas as demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology...

  11. 77 FR 1454 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-10

    ..., statistical analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and... following disciplines: Demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social... technical expertise in such areas as demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey...

  12. 31 CFR 356.4 - What are the book-entry systems in which auctioned Treasury securities may be issued?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... in which auctioned Treasury securities may be issued? There are three book-entry securities systems... marketable Treasury securities. We maintain and transfer securities in these three book-entry systems at... inflation. Securities may be transferred from one system to the other, unless the securities are not...

  13. Correlation Research of Medical Security Management System Network Platform in Medical Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jie, Wang; Fan, Zhang; Jian, Hao; Li-nong, Yu; Jun, Fei; Ping, Hao; Ya-wei, Shen; Yue-jin, Chang

    Objective-The related research of medical security management system network in medical practice. Methods-Establishing network platform of medical safety management system, medical security network host station, medical security management system(C/S), medical security management system of departments and sections, comprehensive query, medical security disposal and examination system. Results-In medical safety management, medical security management system can reflect the hospital medical security problem, and can achieve real-time detection and improve the medical security incident detection rate. Conclusion-The application of the research in the hospital management implementation, can find hospital medical security hidden danger and the problems of medical disputes, and can help in resolving medical disputes in time and achieve good work efficiency, which is worth applying in the hospital practice.

  14. Social and spatial processes associated with childhood diarrheal disease in Matlab, Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; Furgurson, Jill M; Giebultowicz, Sophia; Winston, Jennifer J; Yunus, Mohammad; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Emch, Michael

    2013-01-01

    We develop novel methods for conceptualizing geographic space and social networks to evaluate their respective and combined contributions to childhood diarrheal incidence. After defining maternal networks according to direct familial linkages between females, and road networks using satellite imagery of the study area, we use a spatial econometrics model to evaluate the significance of correlation terms relating childhood diarrheal incidence to the incidence observed within respective networks. Disease was significantly clustered within road networks across time, but only inconsistently correlated within maternal networks. These methods could be widely applied to systems in which both social and spatial processes jointly influence health outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. The Role of the Manufacturer in Air Transportation Planning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackenzie, J.

    1972-01-01

    The role of the aircraft manufacturer in the airline industry is considered. The process is illustrated by using a fictitious airline as an example--that is, a case study approach with Mid-Coast Airways serving as the example. Both in slide form and with supporting papers, a brief history of the airline, a description of its route structure and a forecast based on econometric analysis are presented. Once the forecast rationale is explained, information outlines the requirements for additional aircraft and the application of new aircraft across the system using alternative fleet plan options. The fleet plan is translated into financial summaries which indicate the relative merit of alternative aircraft types or operating plans.

  16. Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

    2018-04-01

    Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.

  17. 76 FR 58786 - Privacy Act of 1974; Systems of Records

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-22

    ... National Security Agency/Central Security System systems of records notices subject to the Privacy Act of... inquiries to the National Security Agency/Central Security Service, Freedom of Information Act/Privacy Act...; Systems of Records AGENCY: National Security Agency/Central Security Service, Department of Defense (DoD...

  18. 31 CFR 306.23 - Securities eligible to be held in the Legacy Treasury Direct® Book-entry Securities System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... Legacy Treasury Direct® Book-entry Securities System. 306.23 Section 306.23 Money and Finance: Treasury... Securities eligible to be held in the Legacy Treasury Direct® Book-entry Securities System. (a) Eligible... book-entry securities system. (b) Conversion of Registered Security to book-entry form to be held in...

  19. David Keyser | NREL

    Science.gov Websites

    . Areas of Expertise Economic impact studies Time series analysis Analysis of labor and demographic data Research Interests Static and dynamic economic impact models Labor data estimation Econometric modeling and 2030: A Strategic Roadmap for American Energy Innovation, Economic Growth, and Competitiveness."

  20. A statistical analysis of the effects of a uniform minimum drinking age

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1987-04-01

    This report examines the relationship between minimum drinking age (MDA) and : highway fatalities during the 1975-1985 period, when 35 states changed their : MDAs. An econometric model of fatalities involving the 18-20 year-old driver : normalized by...

  1. SPATIAL STATISTICS AND ECONOMETRICS FOR MODELS IN FISHERIES ECONOMICS. (R828012)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  2. The Determinants of Library Subscription Prices of the Top-Ranked Economics Journals: An Econometric Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chressanthis, George A.; Chressanthis, June D.

    1994-01-01

    Asserts that subscription price increases for academic journals have been the area of single greatest concern to librarians during the past decade. Finds that systematic variations in library prices across economics journals offer explainable reasons. (CFR)

  3. Airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity, December 19, 2014 : Final report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-12-19

    Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with another aircraft or terrain imposed by Air Traffic Control. Identifying conditions that lead to more severe loss of s...

  4. 78 FR 63267 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of No Objection to...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-23

    ... the set of risk factors whose behavior is included in the econometric models underlying STANS, time series of proportional changes in implied volatilities for a range of tenors and in-the-money and out-of...

  5. Eliminating Problems Caused by Multicollinearity: A Warning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Peter E.

    1982-01-01

    Explains why an econometric practice introduced by J.C. Soper cannot eliminate the problems caused by multicollinearity. The author suggests that it can be a useful technique in that it forces researchers to pay more attention to the specifications of their models. (AM)

  6. Natural gas projects in the developing world: An empirical evaluation of merits, obstacles, and risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mor, Amit

    Significant amounts of natural gas have been discovered in developing countries throughout the years during the course of oil exploration. The vast majority of these resources have not been utilized. Some developing countries may benefit from a carefully planned utilization of their indigenous resources, which can either be exported or used domestically to substitute imported or exportable fuels or feedstock. Governments, potential private sector investors, and financiers have been searching for strategies to promote natural gas schemes, some of which have been in the pipeline for more than two decades. The purpose of this thesis is to identify the crucial factors determining the success or failure of launching natural gas projects in the developing world. The methodology used to evaluate these questions included: (1) establishing a representative sample of natural gas projects in developing countries that were either implemented or failed to materialize during the 1980-1995 period, (2) utilizing a Probit limited dependent variable econometric model in which the explained variable is project success or failure, and (3) choosing representing indicators to reflect the assumed factors affecting project success. The study identified two conditions for project success: (1) the economic viability of the project and (2) securing financing for the investment. The factors that explain the ability or inability of the sponsors to secure financing were: (1) the volume of investment that represented the large capital costs of gas transportation, distribution, and storage, (2) the level of foreign exchange constraint in the host country, and (3) the level of development of the country. The conditions for private sector participation in natural gas projects in developing countries were identified in the study by a Probit model in which the explained variable was private sector participation. The results showed that a critical condition for private sector participation is the financial profitability of a project. Other factors that explained private sector participation and the ability of the private-sector sponsor to secure financing for a project were: (1) the political risk associated with the project, (2) the foreign exchange constraint associated with the project, and (3) whether the project was domestic or export-oriented.

  7. Net migration estimation in an extended, multiregional gravity model.

    PubMed

    Foot, D K; Milne, W J

    1984-02-01

    A multi-regional framework is developed in order to analyze net migration over time to all 10 Canadian provinces within an integrated system of equations. "An extended gravity model is the basis for the equation specification and the use of constrained econometric estimation techniques allows for the provincial interdependence of the migration decision while at the same time ensuring that an important system-wide requirement is respected." The model is estimated using official Canadian data for the 1960s and 1970s. "The results suggest the predominance of the push factor for interprovincial migration for most provinces, although net migration to the Atlantic provinces is also shown to be subject to pull forces from the rest of the country." The effects of wage rate variables, unemployment, and political disturbances in Quebec on inter-provincial migration are noted. excerpt

  8. 31 CFR 357.0 - Book-entry systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... General Information § 357.0 Book-entry systems. (a) Treasury securities. Treasury securities are...-entry system is the book-entry system in which Treasury securities are held in a tiered system through securities intermediaries such as financial institutions or brokerage firms. A Treasury security is...

  9. 31 CFR 357.0 - Book-entry systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... General Information § 357.0 Book-entry systems. (a) Treasury securities. Treasury securities are...-entry system is the book-entry system in which Treasury securities are held in a tiered system through securities intermediaries such as financial institutions or brokerage firms. A Treasury security is...

  10. 31 CFR 357.0 - Book-entry systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... General Information § 357.0 Book-entry systems. (a) Treasury securities. Treasury securities are...-entry system is the book-entry system in which Treasury securities are held in a tiered system through securities intermediaries such as financial institutions or brokerage firms. A Treasury security is...

  11. 31 CFR 357.0 - Book-entry systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... General Information § 357.0 Book-entry systems. (a) Treasury securities. Treasury securities are...-entry system is the book-entry system in which Treasury securities are held in a tiered system through securities intermediaries such as financial institutions or brokerage firms. A Treasury security is...

  12. An evaluation index system of water security in China based on macroeconomic data from 2000 to 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, X. S.; Peng, Z. Y.; Li, T. T.

    2016-08-01

    This paper establishes an evaluation index system of water security. The index system employs 5 subsystems (water circulation security, water environment security, water ecology security, water society security and water economy security) and has 39 indicators. Using the AHP method, each indicator is given a relative weight to integrate within the whole system. With macroeconomic data from 2000 to 2012, a model of water security evaluation is applied to assess the state of water security in China. The results show an improving trend in the overall state of China's water security. In particular, the cycle of water security is at a high and low fluctuation. Water environment security presents an upward trend on the whole; however, this trend is unsteady and has shown a descending tendency in some years. Yet, water ecology security, water society security, and water economy security are basically on the rise. However, the degree of coordination of China's water security system remains in need of consolidation.

  13. Village-level supply reliability of surface water irrigation in rural China: effects of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yanrong; Wang, Jinxia

    2018-06-01

    Surface water, as the largest part of water resources, plays an important role on China's agricultural production and food security. And surface water is vulnerable to climate change. This paper aims to examine the status of the supply reliability of surface water irrigation, and discusses how it is affected by climate change in rural China. The field data we used in this study was collected from a nine-province field survey during 2012 and 2013. Climate data are offered by China's National Meteorological Information Center which contains temperature and precipitation in the past 30 years. A Tobit model (or censored regression model) was used to estimate the influence of climate change on supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Descriptive results showed that, surface water supply reliability was 74 % in the past 3 years. Econometric results revealed that climate variables significantly influenced the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Specifically, temperature is negatively related with the supply reliability of surface water irrigation; but precipitation positively influences the supply reliability of surface water irrigation. Besides, climate influence differs by seasons. In a word, this paper improves our understanding of the impact of climate change on agriculture irrigation and water supply reliability in the micro scale, and provides a scientific basis for relevant policy making.

  14. Size, Accumulation and Performance for Research Grants: Examining the Role of Size for Centres of Excellence

    PubMed Central

    Bloch, Carter; Schneider, Jesper W.; Sinkjær, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    The present paper examines the relation between size, accumulation and performance for research grants, where we examine the relation between grant size for Centres of Excellence (CoE) funded by the Danish National Research Foundation (DNRF) and various ex post research performance measures, including impact and shares of highly cited articles. We examine both the relation between size and performance and also how performance for CoEs evolves over the course of grant periods. In terms of dynamics, it appears that performance over the grant period (i.e. 10 years) is falling for the largest CoEs, while it is increasing for those among the smallest half. Overall, multivariate econometric analysis finds evidence that performance is increasing in grant size and over time. In both cases, the relation appears to be non-linear, suggesting that there is a point at which performance peaks. The CoEs have also been very successful in securing additional funding, which can be viewed as a ‘cumulative effect’ of center grants. In terms of new personnel, the far majority of additional funding is spent on early career researchers, hence, this accumulation would appear to have a ‘generational’ dimension, allowing for scientific expertise to be passed on to an increasing number of younger researchers. PMID:26862907

  15. Directory of Energy Information Administration model abstracts 1988

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1988-01-01

    This directory contains descriptions about each basic and auxiliary model, including the title, acronym, purpose, and type, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. For developing models, limited information is provided. Sources for additional information are identified. Included in this directory are 44 EIA models active as of February 1, 1988; 16 of which operate on personal computers. Models that run on personal computers are identified by ''PC'' as part of the acronyms. The main body of this directory is an alphabetical listing of all basic and auxiliary EIA models. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systemsmore » and the models within these systems, and Appendix B identifies EIA models by type (basic or auxiliary). Appendix C lists developing models and contact persons for those models. A basic model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being sufficiently important to require sustained support and public scrutiny. An auxiliary model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being used only occasionally in analyses, and therefore requires minimal levels of documentation. A developing model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being under development and yet of sufficient interest to require a basic level of documentation at a future date. EIA also leases models developed by proprietary software vendors. Documentation for these ''proprietary'' models is the responsibility of the companies from which they are leased. EIA has recently leased models from Chase Econometrics, Inc., Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA). Leased models are not abstracted here.« less

  16. An Ecology of Prestige in New York City: Examining the Relationships Among Population Density, Socio-economic Status, Group Identity, and Residential Canopy Cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grove, J. Morgan; Locke, Dexter H.; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P. M.

    2014-09-01

    Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.

  17. An ecology of prestige in New York City: examining the relationships among population density, socio-economic status, group identity, and residential canopy cover.

    PubMed

    Grove, J Morgan; Locke, Dexter H; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P M

    2014-09-01

    Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.

  18. Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaveri, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Frolking, S. E.; Wrenn, D. H.; Nicholas, R.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960's has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world's most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years. Multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas under three different climate model predictions of monsoon climate for the years 2010 - 2050. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, which quantifies supply of irrigation water from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, to unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. We find that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements.

  19. Industrial companies' demand for energy based on a micro panel database -- Effects of CO{sub 2} taxation and agreements on energy savings

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bjoerner, T.B.; Togeby, M.

    1999-07-01

    An econometric panel data analysis of industrial demand for electricity and energy is presented. In the panel energy consumption, production and value added are observed at company level. The authors estimate price and production elasticities for electricity and total energy (i.e. measuring the X per cent change in demand of say electricity of a one per cent increase in the price of electricity). The estimated price and production elasticities are allowed to vary according to company characteristics such as industrial sub-sector, company size, energy intensity and type of ownership. Most previous econometric studies on industrial energy demand use aggregate data,more » while a couple of micro level studies mainly employ cross-section analysis. To the knowledge this is only the second econometric study on industrial energy demand based on a large micro panel database. More than 2,700 Danish industrial companies during the period 1983 to 1995 are included in the model (covering the majority of all Danish industrial energy consumption). One advantage of micro data is that these data can be used to estimate the effect of an instrument like voluntary energy agreements. By entering a voluntary energy agreement a Danish company avoids paying the usual CO{sub 2} tax. Preliminary analyses suggest that there is a large positive gross reduction of electricity and total energy consumption of companies with energy agreements. However, the authors also find that companies would have had about the same reduction in electricity consumption if they had not entered into an agreement, but instead paid the full CO{sub 2} tax. Thus, the analysis suggests that the net effect on electricity use of the voluntary energy agreements is very low (perhaps even negative).« less

  20. 47 CFR 80.277 - Ship Security Alert System (SSAS).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Ship Security Alert System (SSAS). 80.277... Security Alert System (SSAS). (a) Vessels equipped with a Ship Security Alert System pursuant to the Safety..., “RTCM Standard 11020.0—Ship Security Alert Systems (SSAS) using the Cospas-Sarsat System,” Version 1.0...

  1. 76 FR 43993 - Privacy Act of 1974; System of Records

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-22

    ...; System of Records AGENCY: National Security Agency/Central Security Service, Department of Defense. ACTION: Notice to Delete a System of Records. SUMMARY: The National Security Agency/Central Security.... FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ms. Anne Hill, National Security Agency/Central Security Service...

  2. The Determinants of College Student Retention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guerrero, Adam A.

    2010-01-01

    This study attempts to add to the college student dropout literature by examining persistence decisions at private, non-selective university using previously unstudied explanatory variables and advanced econometric methods. Three main contributions are provided. First, proprietary data obtained from a type of university that is underrepresented in…

  3. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

  4. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

  5. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

  6. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

  7. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

  8. Analytic Methods for Adjusting Subjective Rating Schemes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Richard V. L.; Nelson, Gary R.

    Statistical and econometric techniques of correcting for supervisor bias in models of individual performance appraisal were developed, using a variant of the classical linear regression model. Location bias occurs when individual performance is systematically overestimated or underestimated, while scale bias results when raters either exaggerate…

  9. Demand for health care in Denmark: results of a national sample survey using contingent valuation.

    PubMed

    Gyldmark, M; Morrison, G C

    2001-10-01

    In this paper we use willingness to pay (WTP) to elicit values for private insurance covering treatment for four different health problems. By way of obtaining these values, we test the viability of the contingent valuation method (CVM) and econometric techniques, respectively, as means of eliciting and analysing values from the general public. WTP responses from a Danish national sample survey, which was designed in accordance with existing guidelines, are analysed in terms of consistency and validity checks. Large numbers of zero responses are common in WTP studies, and are found here; therefore, the Heckman selectivity model and log-transformed OLS are employed. The selectivity model is rejected, but test results indicate that the lognormal model yields efficient and unbiased estimates. The results give confidence in the WTP estimates obtained and, more generally, in CVM as a means of valuing publicly provided goods and in econometrics as a tool for analysing WTP results containing many zero responses.

  10. Heterogeneous autoregressive model with structural break using nearest neighbor truncation volatility estimators for DAX.

    PubMed

    Chin, Wen Cheong; Lee, Min Cherng; Yap, Grace Lee Ching

    2016-01-01

    High frequency financial data modelling has become one of the important research areas in the field of financial econometrics. However, the possible structural break in volatile financial time series often trigger inconsistency issue in volatility estimation. In this study, we propose a structural break heavy-tailed heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) volatility econometric model with the enhancement of jump-robust estimators. The breakpoints in the volatility are captured by dummy variables after the detection by Bai-Perron sequential multi breakpoints procedure. In order to further deal with possible abrupt jump in the volatility, the jump-robust volatility estimators are composed by using the nearest neighbor truncation approach, namely the minimum and median realized volatility. Under the structural break improvements in both the models and volatility estimators, the empirical findings show that the modified HAR model provides the best performing in-sample and out-of-sample forecast evaluations as compared with the standard HAR models. Accurate volatility forecasts have direct influential to the application of risk management and investment portfolio analysis.

  11. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

    PubMed

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-11-15

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Projected electric power demands for the Potomac Electric Power Company. Volume 1

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Estomin, S.; Kahal, M.

    1984-03-01

    This three-volume report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak and electric power demands for the Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) through the year 2002. Volume I describes the methodology, the results of the econometric estimations, the forecast assumptions and the calculated forecasts of peak demand and energy usage. Separate sets of models were developed for the Maryland Suburbs (Montgomery and Prince George's counties), the District of Columbia and Southern Maryland (served by a wholesale customer of PEPCO). For each of the three jurisdictions, energy equations were estimated for residential and commercial/industrial customers for both summer and wintermore » seasons. For the District of Columbia, summer and winter equations for energy sales to the federal government were also estimated. Equations were also estimated for street lighting and energy losses. Noneconometric techniques were employed to forecast energy sales to the Northern Virginia suburbs, Metrorail and federal government facilities located in Maryland.« less

  13. Three Essays on Renewable Energy Policy and its Effects on Fossil Fuel Generation in Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowen, Eric

    In this dissertation, I investigate the effectiveness of renewable policies and consider their impact on electricity markets. The common thread of this research is to understand how renewable policy incentivizes renewable generation and how the increasing share of generation from renewables affects generation from fossil fuels. This type of research is crucial for understanding whether policies to promote renewables are meeting their stated goals and what the unintended effects might be. To this end, I use econometric methods to examine how electricity markets are responding to an influx of renewable energy. My dissertation is composed of three interrelated essays. In Chapter 1, I employ recent scholarship in spatial econometrics to assess the spatial dependence of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), a prominent state-based renewable incentive. In Chapter 2, I explore the impact of the rapid rise in renewable generation on short-run generation from fossil fuels. And in Chapter 3, I assess the impact of renewable penetration on coal plant retirement decisions.

  14. Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerkman, Linda

    2012-07-01

    The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

  15. Travel cost demand model based river recreation benefit estimates with on-site and household surveys: Comparative results and a correction procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loomis, John

    2003-04-01

    Past recreation studies have noted that on-site or visitor intercept surveys are subject to over-sampling of avid users (i.e., endogenous stratification) and have offered econometric solutions to correct for this. However, past papers do not estimate the empirical magnitude of the bias in benefit estimates with a real data set, nor do they compare the corrected estimates to benefit estimates derived from a population sample. This paper empirically examines the magnitude of the recreation benefits per trip bias by comparing estimates from an on-site river visitor intercept survey to a household survey. The difference in average benefits is quite large, with the on-site visitor survey yielding 24 per day trip, while the household survey yields 9.67 per day trip. A simple econometric correction for endogenous stratification in our count data model lowers the benefit estimate to $9.60 per day trip, a mean value nearly identical and not statistically different from the household survey estimate.

  16. Public budgets for energy RD&D and the effects on energy intensity and pollution levels.

    PubMed

    Balsalobre, Daniel; Álvarez, Agustín; Cantos, José María

    2015-04-01

    This study, based on the N-shaped cubic model of the environmental Kuznets curve, analyzes the evolution of per capita greenhouse gas emissions (GHGpc) using not just economic growth but also public budgets dedicated to energy-oriented research development and demonstration (RD&D) and energy intensity. The empirical evidence, obtained from an econometric model of fixed effects for 28 OECD countries during 1994-2010, suggests that energy innovations help reduce GHGpc levels and mitigate the negative impact of energy intensity on environmental quality. When countries develop active energy RD&D policies, they can reduce both the rates of energy intensity and the level of GHGpc emissions. This paper incorporates a moderating variable to the econometric model that emphasizes the effect that GDP has on energy intensity. It also adds a variable that reflects the difference between countries that have made a greater economic effort in energy RD&D, which in turn corrects the GHG emissions resulting from the energy intensity of each country.

  17. Incomes, Attitudes, and Occurrences of Invasive Species: An Application to Signal Crayfish in Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gren, Ing-Marie; Campos, Monica; Edsman, Lennart; Bohman, Patrik

    2009-02-01

    This article analyzes and carries out an econometric test of the explanatory power of economic and attitude variables for occurrences of the nonnative signal crayfish in Swedish waters. Signal crayfish are a carrier of plague which threatens the native noble crayfish with extinction. Crayfish are associated with recreational and cultural traditions in Sweden, which may run against environmental preferences for preserving native species. Econometric analysis is carried out using panel data at the municipality level with economic factors and attitudes as explanatory variables, which are derived from a simple dynamic harvesting model. A log-normal model is used for the regression analysis, and the results indicate significant impacts on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish of changes in both economic and attitude variables. Variables reflecting environmental and recreational preferences have unexpected signs, where the former variable has a positive and the latter a negative impact on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish. These effects are, however, counteracted by their respective interaction effect with income.

  18. Children's weight and participation in organized sports.

    PubMed

    Quinto Romani, Annette

    2011-11-01

    Literature dealing with the impact of organized sports on children's weight has been marked by a lack of consensus. A major weakness characterizing most of this research is a lack of proper measurement methods. This paper seeks to fill an important knowledge gap through careful application of econometric methods. Estimations are carried out using data on 1,400 children attending 6th grade in 2008 in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark. We use standard ordinary least squares (OLS) and class fixed effects to explore the effect of sports participation on body mass index (BMI) as well as underweight, overweight and obesity. Results indicate that participation in organized sports reduced BMI by 2.1%. Likewise it reduced the likelihood of being overweight by 8.2 percentage points and obese by 3.1 percentage points. It is the unique dataset combined with econometric methods that distinguishes our contribution from that of others in the field, thereby offering new insight. Results using statistically sound methods suggest that participation in organized sports has a beneficial effect on children's weight.

  19. 31 CFR 306.23 - Securities eligible to be held in the TREASURY DIRECT Book-entry Securities System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... TREASURY DIRECT Book-entry Securities System. 306.23 Section 306.23 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations... Securities eligible to be held in the TREASURY DIRECT Book-entry Securities System. (a) Eligible issues. The... conversion to the TREASURY DIRECT Book-entry Securities System. The notice shall specify the period during...

  20. [Application of classified protection of information security in the information system of air pollution and health impact monitoring].

    PubMed

    Hao, Shuxin; Lü, Yiran; Liu, Jie; Liu, Yue; Xu, Dongqun

    2018-01-01

    To study the application of classified protection of information security in the information system of air pollution and health impact monitoring, so as to solve the possible safety risk of the information system. According to the relevant national standards and requirements for the information system security classified protection, and the professional characteristics of the information system, to design and implement the security architecture of information system, also to determine the protection level of information system. Basic security measures for the information system were developed in the technical safety and management safety aspects according to the protection levels, which effectively prevented the security risk of the information system. The information system established relatively complete information security protection measures, to enhanced the security of professional information and system service, and to ensure the safety of air pollution and health impact monitoring project carried out smoothly.

  1. Security Evolution.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Patta, Joe

    2003-01-01

    Examines how to evaluate school security, begin making schools safe, secure schools without turning them into fortresses, and secure schools easily and affordably; the evolution of security systems into information technology systems; using schools' high-speed network lines; how one specific security system was developed; pros and cons of the…

  2. 33 CFR 106.255 - Security systems and equipment maintenance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... maintained according to manufacturers' recommendations. (b) Security systems must be regularly tested in... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Security systems and equipment... Shelf (OCS) Facility Security Requirements § 106.255 Security systems and equipment maintenance. (a...

  3. Systems Security Engineering

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-08-22

    practice for information security management ( ISO /IEC 27002 ),” “Information technology — Security techniques — Information security management...systems —Requirements ( ISO /IEC 27002 ),”, “Information technology — Security techniques — Information security risk management ( ISO /IEC 27005).” from...associated practice aids. Perhaps the most germane discovery from this effort was a draft ISO standard on Systems and software engineering, Systems and

  4. 75 FR 56079 - Privacy Act of 1974; System of Records

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-09-15

    ... to the National Security Agency/Central Security Service, Freedom of Information Act/Privacy Act...; System of Records AGENCY: National Security Agency/Central Security Service, DoD. ACTION: Notice to amend a system of records. SUMMARY: The National Security Agency/Central Security Service is proposing to...

  5. Computer Security Systems Enable Access.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riggen, Gary

    1989-01-01

    A good security system enables access and protects information from damage or tampering, but the most important aspects of a security system aren't technical. A security procedures manual addresses the human element of computer security. (MLW)

  6. Energy System Integration Facility Secure Data Center | Energy Systems

    Science.gov Websites

    Integration Facility | NREL Energy System Integration Facility Secure Data Center Energy System Integration Facility Secure Data Center The Energy Systems Integration Facility's Secure Data Center provides

  7. 77 FR 56628 - Privacy Act of 1974; System of Records

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-09-13

    ... to the National Security Agency/Central Security Service, Freedom of Information Act/Privacy Act...; System of Records AGENCY: National Security Agency/Central Security Service, DoD. ACTION: Notice to add a system of records. SUMMARY: The National Security Agency/Central Security Service proposes to add a new...

  8. 78 FR 45913 - Privacy Act of 1974; Systems of Records

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-07-30

    ... National Security Agency/Central Security Service systems of records subject to the Privacy Act of 1974 (5... National Security Agency/Central Security Service, Freedom of Information Act/Privacy Act Office, 9800...; Systems of Records AGENCY: National Security Agency/Central Security Service, DoD. ACTION: Notice to alter...

  9. 77 FR 26259 - Privacy Act of 1974; System of Records

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-03

    .... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The National Security Agency systems of records notice subject to the Privacy Act of... of Records AGENCY: National Security Agency/Central Security Service. ACTION: Notice to Delete a System of Records. SUMMARY: The National Security Agency/Central Security Service is deleting a system of...

  10. 75 FR 67697 - Privacy Act of 1974; Systems of Records

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-11-03

    ... National Security Agency's record system notices for records systems subject to the Privacy Act of 1974 (5... National Security Agency/Central Security Service, Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)/Privacy Act Office...; Systems of Records AGENCY: National Security Agency/Central Security Service, DoD. ACTION: Notice to add a...

  11. 75 FR 43494 - Privacy Act of 1974; System of Records

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-07-26

    ... National Security Agency's record system notices for records systems subject to the Privacy Act of 1974 (5... National Security Agency/Central Security Service, Freedom of Information Act and Privacy Act Office, 9800...; System of Records AGENCY: National Security Agency/Central Security Service, DoD. ACTION: Notice to...

  12. 8 CFR 103.34 - Security of records systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security of records systems. 103.34 Section 103.34 Aliens and Nationality DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY IMMIGRATION REGULATIONS POWERS AND DUTIES; AVAILABILITY OF RECORDS § 103.34 Security of records systems. The security of records systems...

  13. Does Peer Ability Affect Student Achievement?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanushek, Eric A.; Kain, John F.; Markman, Jacob M.; Rivkin, Steven G.

    Empirical analysis of peer effects on student achievement has been open to question because of the difficulties of separating peer effects from other confounding influences. While most econometric attention has been directed at issues of simultaneous determination of peer interactions, this paper argues that issues of omitted and mismeasured…

  14. The regional economic impacts of bypasses : a longitudinal study incorporating spatial panel econometrics and multilevel modeling.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-09-01

    This paper will describe an integrated approach to documenting and quantifying the impacts of bypasses : on small communities, with a focus on what economic impacts, if any, occur, and how these impacts : change over time. Two similarly sized communi...

  15. Energy Models and the Policy Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Man, Reinier

    1983-01-01

    Describes the function of econometric and technological models in the policy process, and shows how different positions in the Dutch energy discussion are reflected by the application of different model methodologies. Discussion includes the energy policy context, a conceptual framework for using energy models, and energy scenarios in policy…

  16. The Ontology of Science Teaching in the Neoliberal Era

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Ajay

    2017-01-01

    Because of ever stricter standards of accountability, science teachers are under an increasing and unrelenting pressure to demonstrate the effects of their teaching on student learning. Econometric perspectives of "teacher quality" have become normative in assessment of teachers' work for accountability purposes. These perspectives seek…

  17. Evaluating the Flipped Classroom: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wozny, Nathan; Balser, Cary; Ives, Drew

    2018-01-01

    Despite recent interest in flipped classrooms, rigorous research evaluating their effectiveness is sparse. In this study, the authors implement a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effect of a flipped classroom technique relative to a traditional lecture in an introductory undergraduate econometrics course. Random assignment enables the…

  18. Female-Male Earnings Differentials and Occupational Structure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Terrell, Katherine

    1992-01-01

    A review of econometric literature on female-male wage differences and asymmetrical distribution in occupations shows that differences in returns to human capital (i.e., discrimination) explains far more of the wage gap than differences in education and experience. Crowding of women into few occupations depresses wages. (SK)

  19. 76 FR 11195 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-01

    ..., econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain to the full range of Census Bureau... technical expertise from the following disciplines: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics..., psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social and behavioral sciences, Information Technology, computing...

  20. Effect of fare and travel time on the demand for domestic air transportation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eriksen, S. E.; Liu, E. W.

    1979-01-01

    An econometric travel demand model was presented. The model was used for analyzing long haul domestic passenger markets in the United States. The results showed the sensitivities of demand to changes in fares and speed reflecting technology through more efficient aircraft designs.

  1. Motor Vehicle Demand Models : Assessment of the State of the Art and Directions for Future Research

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1981-04-01

    The report provides an assessment of the current state of motor vehicle demand modeling. It includes a detailed evaluation of one leading large-scale econometric vehicle demand model, which is tested for both logical consistency and forecasting accur...

  2. An alternative to sneakernet

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Orrell, S.; Ralstin, S.

    1992-04-01

    Many computer security plans specify that only a small percentage of the data processed will be classified. Thus, the bulk of the data on secure systems must be unclassified. Secure limited access sites operating approved classified computing systems sometimes also have a system ostensibly containing only unclassified files but operating within the secure environment. That system could be networked or otherwise connected to a classified system(s) in order that both be able to use common resources for file storage or computing power. Such a system must operate under the same rules as the secure classified systems. It is in themore » nature of unclassified files that they either came from, or will eventually migrate to, a non-secure system. Today, unclassified files are exported from systems within the secure environment typically by loading transport media and carrying them to an open system. Import of unclassified files is handled similarly. This media transport process, sometimes referred to as sneaker net, often is manually logged and controlled only by administrative procedures. A comprehensive system for secure bi-directional transfer of unclassified files between secure and open environments has yet to be developed. Any such secure file transport system should be required to meet several stringent criteria. It is the purpose of this document to begin a definition of these criteria.« less

  3. An alternative to sneakernet

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Orrell, S.; Ralstin, S.

    1992-01-01

    Many computer security plans specify that only a small percentage of the data processed will be classified. Thus, the bulk of the data on secure systems must be unclassified. Secure limited access sites operating approved classified computing systems sometimes also have a system ostensibly containing only unclassified files but operating within the secure environment. That system could be networked or otherwise connected to a classified system(s) in order that both be able to use common resources for file storage or computing power. Such a system must operate under the same rules as the secure classified systems. It is in themore » nature of unclassified files that they either came from, or will eventually migrate to, a non-secure system. Today, unclassified files are exported from systems within the secure environment typically by loading transport media and carrying them to an open system. Import of unclassified files is handled similarly. This media transport process, sometimes referred to as sneaker net, often is manually logged and controlled only by administrative procedures. A comprehensive system for secure bi-directional transfer of unclassified files between secure and open environments has yet to be developed. Any such secure file transport system should be required to meet several stringent criteria. It is the purpose of this document to begin a definition of these criteria.« less

  4. Information technology security system engineering methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Childs, D.

    2003-01-01

    A methodology is described for system engineering security into large information technology systems under development. The methodology is an integration of a risk management process and a generic system development life cycle process. The methodology is to be used by Security System Engineers to effectively engineer and integrate information technology security into a target system as it progresses through the development life cycle. The methodology can also be used to re-engineer security into a legacy system.

  5. 6 CFR 5.31 - Security of systems of records.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security of systems of records. 5.31 Section 5.31 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY DISCLOSURE OF RECORDS AND INFORMATION Privacy Act § 5.31 Security of systems of records. (a) In general. Each component...

  6. Personal health record systems and their security protection.

    PubMed

    Win, Khin Than; Susilo, Willy; Mu, Yi

    2006-08-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze the security protection of personal health record systems. To achieve this we have investigated different personal health record systems, their security functions, and security issues. We have noted that current security mechanisms are not adequate and we have proposed some security mechanisms to tackle these problems.

  7. 28 CFR 700.24 - Security of systems of records.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Security of systems of records. 700.24... Records Under the Privacy Act of 1974 § 700.24 Security of systems of records. (a) The Office Administrator or Security Officer shall be responsible for issuing regulations governing the security of systems...

  8. A cross-case comparative analysis of international security forces' impacts on health systems in conflict-affected and fragile states.

    PubMed

    Bourdeaux, Margaret; Kerry, Vanessa; Haggenmiller, Christian; Nickel, Karlheinz

    2015-01-01

    Destruction of health systems in fragile and conflict-affected states increases civilian mortality. Despite the size, scope, scale and political influence of international security forces intervening in fragile states, little attention has been paid to array of ways they may impact health systems beyond their effects on short-term humanitarian health aid delivery. Using case studies we published on international security forces' impacts on health systems in Haiti, Kosovo, Afghanistan and Libya, we conducted a comparative analysis that examined three questions: What aspects, or building blocks, of health systems did security forces impact across the cases and what was the nature of these impacts? What forums or mechanisms did international security forces use to interact with health system actors? What policies facilitated or hindered security forces from supporting health systems? We found international security forces impacted health system governance, information systems and indigenous health delivery organizations. Positive impacts included bolstering the authority, transparency and capability of health system leadership. Negative impacts included undermining the impartial nature of indigenous health institutions by using health projects to achieve security objectives. Interactions between security and health actors were primarily ad hoc, often to the detriment of health system support efforts. When international security forces were engaged in health system support activities, the most helpful communication and consultative mechanisms to manage their involvement were ones that could address a wide array of problems, were nimble enough to accommodate rapidly changing circumstances, leveraged the power of personal relationships, and were able to address the tensions that arose between security and health system supporting strategies. Policy barriers to international security organizations participating in health system support included lack of mandate, conflicts between security strategies and health system preservation, and lack of interoperability between security and indigenous health organizations with respect to logistics and sharing information. The cases demonstrate both the opportunities and risks of international security organizations involvement in health sector protection, recovery and reconstruction. We discuss two potential approaches to engaging these organizations in health system support that may increase the chances of realizing these opportunities while mitigating risks.

  9. 5 CFR 930.301 - Information systems security awareness training program.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ....g., system and network administrators, and system/application security officers) must receive... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Information systems security awareness... (MISCELLANEOUS) Information Security Responsibilities for Employees who Manage or Use Federal Information Systems...

  10. 5 CFR 930.301 - Information systems security awareness training program.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ....g., system and network administrators, and system/application security officers) must receive... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Information systems security awareness... (MISCELLANEOUS) Information Security Responsibilities for Employees who Manage or Use Federal Information Systems...

  11. Building a Secure Library System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benson, Allen C.

    1998-01-01

    Presents tips for building a secure library system to guard against threats like hackers, viruses, and theft. Topics include: determining what is at risk; recovering from disasters; developing security policies; developing front-end security; securing menu systems; accessing control programs; protecting against damage from viruses; developing…

  12. Business cycles' correlation and systemic risk of the Japanese supplier-customer network.

    PubMed

    Krichene, Hazem; Chakraborty, Abhijit; Inoue, Hiroyasu; Fujiwara, Yoshi

    2017-01-01

    This work aims to study and explain the business cycle correlations of the Japanese production network. We consider the supplier-customer network, which is a directed network representing the trading links between Japanese firms (links from suppliers to customers). The community structure of this network is determined by applying the Infomap algorithm. Each community is defined by its GDP and its associated business cycle. Business cycle correlations between communities are estimated based on copula theory. Then, based on firms' attributes and network topology, these correlations are explained through linear econometric models. The results show strong evidence of business cycle correlations in the Japanese production network. A significant systemic risk is found for high negative or positive shocks. These correlations are explained mainly by the sector and by geographic similarities. Moreover, our results highlight the higher vulnerability of small communities and small firms, which is explained by the disassortative mixing of the production network.

  13. Business cycles’ correlation and systemic risk of the Japanese supplier-customer network

    PubMed Central

    Chakraborty, Abhijit; Inoue, Hiroyasu; Fujiwara, Yoshi

    2017-01-01

    This work aims to study and explain the business cycle correlations of the Japanese production network. We consider the supplier-customer network, which is a directed network representing the trading links between Japanese firms (links from suppliers to customers). The community structure of this network is determined by applying the Infomap algorithm. Each community is defined by its GDP and its associated business cycle. Business cycle correlations between communities are estimated based on copula theory. Then, based on firms’ attributes and network topology, these correlations are explained through linear econometric models. The results show strong evidence of business cycle correlations in the Japanese production network. A significant systemic risk is found for high negative or positive shocks. These correlations are explained mainly by the sector and by geographic similarities. Moreover, our results highlight the higher vulnerability of small communities and small firms, which is explained by the disassortative mixing of the production network. PMID:29059233

  14. A Note on Verification of Computer Simulation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aigner, Dennis J.

    1972-01-01

    Establishes an argument that questions the validity of one test'' of goodness-of-fit (the extent to which a series of obtained measures agrees with a series of theoretical measures) for the simulated time path of a simple endogenous (internally developed) variable in a simultaneous, perhaps dynamic econometric model. (Author)

  15. The Case of Effort Variables in Student Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borg, Mary O.; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Tests the existence of a structural shift between above- and below-average students in the econometric models that explain students' grades in principles of economics classes. Identifies a structural shift and estimates separate models for above- and below-average students. Concludes that separate models as well as educational policies are…

  16. The Cost-Effectiveness of Raising Teacher Quality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeh, Stuart S.

    2009-01-01

    Econometric studies suggest that student achievement may be improved if high-performing teachers are substituted for low-performing teachers. Drawing upon a recent study linking teacher performance on licensure exams with gains in student achievement, an analysis was conducted to determine the cost-effectiveness of requiring teacher applicants to…

  17. Schools and Labor Market Outcomes. EQW Working Papers WP33.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, David L.; And Others

    The relationship between school characteristics and labor market outcomes was examined through a literature review and an econometric analysis of the effects of various characteristics of the schooling experience on students' labor market performance after high school. Data from the National Center on Education Statistics' longitudinal survey of…

  18. Energy Conservation for Low-Income Households: The Evaporative Cooler Experience.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ridge, Richard S.

    1988-01-01

    An econometric analysis, using a research design based on the nonequivalent control group (NECG), assessed the effectiveness of a program offering free evaporative coolers to low-income families owning air conditioners. The NECG controls for serious threats to internal validity, except for self-selection. The program successfully reduced energy…

  19. 77 FR 71788 - Notice of Change to the Publication of Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-12-04

    ... gas wellhead price using a time-series econometric model, which incorporates data from historical... (DOE). ACTION: Notice of a discontinuation of series in the publication of natural gas wellhead prices... price series. Beginning in January 2013, EIA will discontinue publishing wellhead prices, and will begin...

  20. Duration Models to Analyze Dating Relationship: The Controversial Role of Gift Giving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Ming-Hui; Yu, Shihti

    2000-01-01

    Econometric duration models were used to analyze dating relationships of 225 college students. Using gifts to enhance the self, express love, and announce relationships helped ensure the success of relationships. Gifts that were too frequent or rare resulted in self-depreciation and anxiety and harmed relationships. (SK)

  1. Interpreting Bivariate Regression Coefficients: Going beyond the Average

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Halcoussis, Dennis; Phillips, G. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Statistics, econometrics, investment analysis, and data analysis classes often review the calculation of several types of averages, including the arithmetic mean, geometric mean, harmonic mean, and various weighted averages. This note shows how each of these can be computed using a basic regression framework. By recognizing when a regression model…

  2. Teaching Students Not to Dismiss the Outermost Observations in Regressions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kasprowicz, Tomasz; Musumeci, Jim

    2015-01-01

    One econometric rule of thumb is that greater dispersion in observations of the independent variable improves estimates of regression coefficients and therefore produces better results, i.e., lower standard errors of the estimates. Nevertheless, students often seem to mistrust precisely the observations that contribute the most to this greater…

  3. The Dynamics of Online User Behavior and IS Policy Implications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Keehyung

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation, which comprises three independent essays, explores the dynamics of online user behavior and provides IS policy implications across three different applications. The first essay employs an econometric empirical analysis to examine the role of IT interventions on online users' gambling behavior, based on field data collected over…

  4. Impact of Education on the Income of Different Social Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yue, Changjun; Liu, Yanping

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates, statistically and econometrically, the income level, income inequality, education inequality, and the relationship between education and income of different social groups, on the basis of the Chinese Urban Household Survey conducted in 2005, the Gini coefficient and the quartile regression method. Research findings…

  5. The effects of impact fees in urban form and congestion in Florida for period 4/1/2010 to 11/30/2011.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzes the effect of impact fees in urban form and congestion through a combination of methods including econometric analysis, GIS techniques, and interviews with planning officials. The results show that there is some evidence that impa...

  6. A Transactions Cost Economics Approach to Defense Acquisition Management

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-12-30

    A path-breaking econometric study (Masten et al., 1991) based on the procurement of components and services by a large naval shipbuilder indicates...philosophy with four formal levels of hierarchical IPTs—from project-level working groups to over- arching OSD-level “teams.” Key in the IPT concept is

  7. Overskilling Dynamics and Education Pathways

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mavromaras, Kostas; McGuinness, Seamus

    2012-01-01

    This paper uses panel data and econometric methods to estimate the incidence and the dynamic properties of overskilling among employed individuals. The paper begins by asking whether there is extensive overskilling in the labour market, and whether overskilling differs by education pathway. The answer to both questions is yes. The paper continues…

  8. A Research-Based Development Economics Course for Undergraduates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Singh, Prakarsh; Guo, Hongye; Morales, Alvaro

    2015-01-01

    The authors present details of a research-based course in development economics taught at a private liberal arts college. There were three key elements in this class: teaching of applied econometrics, group presentations reviewing published and working papers in development economics, and using concepts taught in class to write an original…

  9. The Insulation Board Industry - An Economic Analysis

    Treesearch

    Albert T. Schuler

    1978-01-01

    An econometric model of the domestic insulation board industry was developed to identify and quantify the major factors affecting quantity consumed and price. The factors identified were housing starts, residential improvement activity, disposable personal income, productivity, pulpwood and residue prices, and power costs. Disposable personal income was the most...

  10. An Econommetric Analysis of the U.S. Hardboard Market

    Treesearch

    Albert T. Schuler

    1978-01-01

    An econometric model of U.S. hardboard consumption was developed to identify the major variables affecting hardboard consumption and price. The variables identified were housing starts, residential improvement activity, disposable personal income, hardwood plywood price, productivity, pulpwood and residue price, hardboard tariff, and power cost, Disposable personal...

  11. The Ph.D. Production Function: The Case at Berkeley.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Breneman, David W.

    This report analyzes departmental variations in time to degree and attrition in Ph.D. programs at Berkeley. An alternative hypothesis, the Ph.D. production function, is examined by cross-section econometric analysis of 28 departments. The inputs included in the production function were student variables--quality and percent males; faculty…

  12. Household Schooling Decisions in Rural Pakistan. Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sawada, Yasuyuki; Lokshin, Michael

    A study of household schooling decisions in rural Pakistan found serious supply-side constraints on female primary education in the villages studied. Field surveys of 25 Pakistani villages were integrated with economic theory and econometric analysis to investigate the sequential nature of educational decisions. The full-information maximum…

  13. Value of Weather Information in Cranberry Marketing Decisions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morzuch, Bernard J.; Willis, Cleve E.

    1982-04-01

    Econometric techniques are used to establish a functional relationship between cranberry yields and important precipitation, temperature, and sunshine variables. Crop forecasts are derived from the model and are used to establish posterior probabilities to be used in a Bayesian decision context pertaining to leasing space for the storage of the berries.

  14. Space-time modeling of timber prices

    Treesearch

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

    2006-01-01

    A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

  15. University-Industry Research Collaboration: A Model to Assess University Capability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abramo, Giovanni; D'Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea; Di Costa, Flavia

    2011-01-01

    Scholars and policy makers recognize that collaboration between industry and the public research institutions is a necessity for innovation and national economic development. This work presents an econometric model which expresses the university capability for collaboration with industry as a function of size, location and research quality. The…

  16. The Determinants of Girls' Educational Enrollment in Ghana. Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Rebecca; Kyle, Steven

    This study examined the determinants of school enrollment in Ghana, considering historical and social information to formulate an econometric model of school enrollment patterns for households. Data came from a 1989 survey of households in Ghana. The survey collected basic information about community characteristics, health and school facilities,…

  17. Statistical Cost Estimation in Higher Education: Some Alternatives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brinkman, Paul T.; Niwa, Shelley

    Recent developments in econometrics that are relevant to the task of estimating costs in higher education are reviewed. The relative effectiveness of alternative statistical procedures for estimating costs are also tested. Statistical cost estimation involves three basic parts: a model, a data set, and an estimation procedure. Actual data are used…

  18. Impacts of terrain attributes on economics and the environment: Costs of reducing potential nitrogen pollution in wheat production

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The economic cost of achieving desired environmental outcomes from uniform and variable rate fertilizer application technologies depends both on market forces and agronomic properties. Using spatial econometric methods, we analyze the impact of nitrogen fertilizer supply by terrain attribute on the...

  19. Estimating School Efficiency: A Comparison of Methods Using Simulated Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bifulco, Robert; Bretschneider, Stuart

    2001-01-01

    Uses simulated data to assess the adequacy of two econometric and linear-programming techniques (data-envelopment analysis and corrected ordinary least squares) for measuring performance-based school reform. In complex data sets (simulated to contain measurement error and endogeneity), these methods are inadequate efficiency measures. (Contains 40…

  20. Measuring Systematic Long-Term Trajectories of School Effectiveness Improvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valenzuela, Juan Pablo; Bellei, Cristián; Allende, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to identify trajectories of school improvement experienced by Chilean elementary schools over the last decade. Using econometric analysis and controlling for potential confounding factors, we created an index of school performance combining outcome indicators focused on different school dimensions, and estimated the…

  1. Nursing Home Cost Studies and Reimbursement Issues

    PubMed Central

    Bishop, Christine E.

    1980-01-01

    This review of nursing home cost function research shows that certain provider and service characteristics are systematically associated with differences in the average cost of care. This information can be used to group providers for reasonable cost related rate-setting or to adjust their rates or rate ceilings. However, relationships between average cost and such service characteristics as patient mix, service intensity, and quality of care have not been fully delineated. Therefore, econometric cost functions cannot yet provide rate-setters with predictions about the cost of the efficient provision of nursing home care appropriate to patient needs. In any case, the design of reimbursement systems must be founded not only on technical information but also on public policy goals for long-term care. PMID:10309223

  2. Nursing home cost studies and reimbursement issues.

    PubMed

    Bishop, C E

    1980-01-01

    This review of nursing home cost function research shows that certain provider and service characteristics are systematically associated with differences in the average cost of care. This information can be used to group providers for reasonable cost related rate-setting or to adjust their rates or rate ceilings. However, relationships between average cost and such service characteristics as patient mix, service intensity, and quality of care have not been fully delineated. Therefore, econometric cost functions cannot yet provide rate-setters with predictions about the cost of the efficient provision of nursing home care appropriate to patient needs. In any case, the design of reimbursement systems must be founded not only on technical information but also on public policy goals for long-term care.

  3. 33 CFR 127.705 - Security systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Security systems. 127.705 Section 127.705 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Security § 127.705 Security systems. The operator shall...

  4. 33 CFR 127.705 - Security systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Security systems. 127.705 Section 127.705 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Security § 127.705 Security systems. The operator shall...

  5. 33 CFR 127.705 - Security systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Security systems. 127.705 Section 127.705 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Security § 127.705 Security systems. The operator shall...

  6. 33 CFR 127.705 - Security systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Security systems. 127.705 Section 127.705 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Security § 127.705 Security systems. The operator shall...

  7. 33 CFR 127.705 - Security systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Security systems. 127.705 Section 127.705 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Security § 127.705 Security systems. The operator shall...

  8. Security Threat Assessment of an Internet Security System Using Attack Tree and Vague Sets

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Security threat assessment of the Internet security system has become a greater concern in recent years because of the progress and diversification of information technology. Traditionally, the failure probabilities of bottom events of an Internet security system are treated as exact values when the failure probability of the entire system is estimated. However, security threat assessment when the malfunction data of the system's elementary event are incomplete—the traditional approach for calculating reliability—is no longer applicable. Moreover, it does not consider the failure probability of the bottom events suffered in the attack, which may bias conclusions. In order to effectively solve the problem above, this paper proposes a novel technique, integrating attack tree and vague sets for security threat assessment. For verification of the proposed approach, a numerical example of an Internet security system security threat assessment is adopted in this paper. The result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of security threat assessment methods. PMID:25405226

  9. Security threat assessment of an Internet security system using attack tree and vague sets.

    PubMed

    Chang, Kuei-Hu

    2014-01-01

    Security threat assessment of the Internet security system has become a greater concern in recent years because of the progress and diversification of information technology. Traditionally, the failure probabilities of bottom events of an Internet security system are treated as exact values when the failure probability of the entire system is estimated. However, security threat assessment when the malfunction data of the system's elementary event are incomplete--the traditional approach for calculating reliability--is no longer applicable. Moreover, it does not consider the failure probability of the bottom events suffered in the attack, which may bias conclusions. In order to effectively solve the problem above, this paper proposes a novel technique, integrating attack tree and vague sets for security threat assessment. For verification of the proposed approach, a numerical example of an Internet security system security threat assessment is adopted in this paper. The result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of security threat assessment methods.

  10. 33 CFR 106.265 - Security measures for restricted areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...) Telecommunications; (iii) Power distribution system; (iv) Access points for ventilation and air-conditioning systems... security areas within the OCS facility; (6) Protect security and surveillance equipment and systems; and (7... security and surveillance equipment and systems and their controls, and lighting system controls; and (3...

  11. 77 FR 32111 - Privacy Act System of Records

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-31

    ... or fraud, or harm to the security or integrity of this system or other systems or programs (whether... to comment. FCC/MB-2 System Name: Broadcast Station Public Inspection Files. Security Classification: The FCC's Security Operations Center (SOC) has not assigned a security classification to this system...

  12. 75 FR 8096 - Privacy Act of 1974; Department of Homeland Security Transportation Security Administration-023...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-23

    ... Prevention Program System of Records AGENCY: Privacy Office, DHS. ACTION: Notice of Privacy Act system of... to establish a new system of records titled, ``Department of Homeland Security/Transportation Security Administration--023 Workplace Violence Prevention Program System of Records.'' This system will...

  13. Computational Models of Consumer Confidence from Large-Scale Online Attention Data: Crowd-Sourcing Econometrics

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting. PMID:25826692

  14. Computational models of consumer confidence from large-scale online attention data: crowd-sourcing econometrics.

    PubMed

    Dong, Xianlei; Bollen, Johan

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting.

  15. An enhanced security solution for electronic medical records based on AES hybrid technique with SOAP/XML and SHA-1.

    PubMed

    Kiah, M L Mat; Nabi, Mohamed S; Zaidan, B B; Zaidan, A A

    2013-10-01

    This study aims to provide security solutions for implementing electronic medical records (EMRs). E-Health organizations could utilize the proposed method and implement recommended solutions in medical/health systems. Majority of the required security features of EMRs were noted. The methods used were tested against each of these security features. In implementing the system, the combination that satisfied all of the security features of EMRs was selected. Secure implementation and management of EMRs facilitate the safeguarding of the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of e-health organization systems. Health practitioners, patients, and visitors can use the information system facilities safely and with confidence anytime and anywhere. After critically reviewing security and data transmission methods, a new hybrid method was proposed to be implemented on EMR systems. This method will enhance the robustness, security, and integration of EMR systems. The hybrid of simple object access protocol/extensible markup language (XML) with advanced encryption standard and secure hash algorithm version 1 has achieved the security requirements of an EMR system with the capability of integrating with other systems through the design of XML messages.

  16. 78 FR 56263 - HydroGen Corp., QueryObject Systems Corp., Security Intelligence Technologies, Inc., Skins, Inc...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-12

    ... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [File No. 500-1] HydroGen Corp., QueryObject Systems Corp., Security Intelligence Technologies, Inc., Skins, Inc., SLM Holdings, Inc., Spring Creek Healthcare Systems... securities of Security Intelligence Technologies, Inc. because it has not filed any periodic reports since...

  17. Development of a medical information system that minimizes staff workload and secures system safety at a small medical institution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haneda, Kiyofumi; Koyama, Tadashi

    2005-04-01

    We developed a secure system that minimizes staff workload and secures safety of a medical information system. In this study, we assess the legal security requirements and risks occurring from the use of digitized data. We then analyze the security measures for ways of reducing these risks. In the analysis, not only safety, but also costs of security measures and ease of operability are taken into consideration. Finally, we assess the effectiveness of security measures by employing our system in small-sized medical institution. As a result of the current study, we developed and implemented several security measures, such as authentications, cryptography, data back-up, and secure sockets layer protocol (SSL) in our system. In conclusion, the cost for the introduction and maintenance of a system is one of the primary difficulties with its employment by a small-sized institution. However, with recent reductions in the price of computers, and certain advantages of small-sized medical institutions, the development of an efficient system configuration has become possible.

  18. 49 CFR 659.25 - Annual review of system safety program plan and system security plan.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... system security plan. 659.25 Section 659.25 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... and system security plan. (a) The oversight agency shall require the rail transit agency to conduct an annual review of its system safety program plan and system security plan. (b) In the event the rail...

  19. 45 CFR 95.621 - ADP reviews.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... use; (C) Software and data security; (D) Telecommunications security; (E) Personnel security; (F... Federal review. (f) ADP System Security Requirements and Review Process—(1) ADP System Security Requirement. State agencies are responsible for the security of all ADP projects under development, and...

  20. Stranded cost recovery: Reregulating the electricity markets in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagle, Pushkar Ghanashyam

    2000-10-01

    For the past few years, Stranded Cost recovery has been one of the most contentious issues regarding the restructuring of electricity markets among the regulators, researchers, and the other interested parties. Among the states that have moved towards retail competition, some have already made decisions regarding the levels of the stranded cost recovery. So the question is: how have these states handled the "stranded cost problem"? Following the introduction and the historical perspective of the industry in the first chapter, the second chapter takes a broad view for understanding the overall process of deregulation. It attempts to analyze why some states have made a rapid transition to competition in the electric utility industry, while other states are just beginning to consider the issue. White (1996) and Ando & Palmer (1998) have conducted a similar exercise. We present a more comprehensive and theoretically informed econometric analysis that sheds light over some of the crucial issues involved in restructuring, such as, stranded cost recovery, regulation of transmission and distribution sectors, and establishment of Independent System Operator, etc. This chapter offers the rationale for alternative econometric techniques, and extends the political economy analysis to incorporate actual timings of retail competition. Once we have identified the role of stranded cost in restructuring and the theoretical foundations, we study empirically the political economy of states' decisions to grant stranded cost recovery. This constitutes the third chapter. Here, we concentrate on California and Pennsylvania, two states that are at the frontiers of deregulation, and compare their respective treatments of the stranded cost. We probe the reasons behind Pennsylvania's lead over California on the path towards deregulation.

  1. HUMAN DECISIONS AND MACHINE PREDICTIONS.

    PubMed

    Kleinberg, Jon; Lakkaraju, Himabindu; Leskovec, Jure; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil

    2018-02-01

    Can machine learning improve human decision making? Bail decisions provide a good test case. Millions of times each year, judges make jail-or-release decisions that hinge on a prediction of what a defendant would do if released. The concreteness of the prediction task combined with the volume of data available makes this a promising machine-learning application. Yet comparing the algorithm to judges proves complicated. First, the available data are generated by prior judge decisions. We only observe crime outcomes for released defendants, not for those judges detained. This makes it hard to evaluate counterfactual decision rules based on algorithmic predictions. Second, judges may have a broader set of preferences than the variable the algorithm predicts; for instance, judges may care specifically about violent crimes or about racial inequities. We deal with these problems using different econometric strategies, such as quasi-random assignment of cases to judges. Even accounting for these concerns, our results suggest potentially large welfare gains: one policy simulation shows crime reductions up to 24.7% with no change in jailing rates, or jailing rate reductions up to 41.9% with no increase in crime rates. Moreover, all categories of crime, including violent crimes, show reductions; and these gains can be achieved while simultaneously reducing racial disparities. These results suggest that while machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals. JEL Codes: C10 (Econometric and statistical methods and methodology), C55 (Large datasets: Modeling and analysis), K40 (Legal procedure, the legal system, and illegal behavior).

  2. HUMAN DECISIONS AND MACHINE PREDICTIONS*

    PubMed Central

    Kleinberg, Jon; Lakkaraju, Himabindu; Leskovec, Jure; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil

    2018-01-01

    Can machine learning improve human decision making? Bail decisions provide a good test case. Millions of times each year, judges make jail-or-release decisions that hinge on a prediction of what a defendant would do if released. The concreteness of the prediction task combined with the volume of data available makes this a promising machine-learning application. Yet comparing the algorithm to judges proves complicated. First, the available data are generated by prior judge decisions. We only observe crime outcomes for released defendants, not for those judges detained. This makes it hard to evaluate counterfactual decision rules based on algorithmic predictions. Second, judges may have a broader set of preferences than the variable the algorithm predicts; for instance, judges may care specifically about violent crimes or about racial inequities. We deal with these problems using different econometric strategies, such as quasi-random assignment of cases to judges. Even accounting for these concerns, our results suggest potentially large welfare gains: one policy simulation shows crime reductions up to 24.7% with no change in jailing rates, or jailing rate reductions up to 41.9% with no increase in crime rates. Moreover, all categories of crime, including violent crimes, show reductions; and these gains can be achieved while simultaneously reducing racial disparities. These results suggest that while machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals. JEL Codes: C10 (Econometric and statistical methods and methodology), C55 (Large datasets: Modeling and analysis), K40 (Legal procedure, the legal system, and illegal behavior) PMID:29755141

  3. [Healthcare management of an epilepsy clinic: factors involved in the demand for health care and clinical situation of patients].

    PubMed

    García-Martín, Guillermina; Martín-Reyes, Guillermina; Dawid-Milner, Marc Stefan; Chamorro-Muñoz, M Isabel; Pérez-Errazquin, Francisco; Romero-Acebal, Manuel

    2013-05-16

    Epilepsy is a chronic illness that requires a long-term periodic follow-up of the patient and this means that as time goes by the number of patients attended increases, with the ensuing added cost for the healthcare system. To determine the factors involved in the time until an epileptic patient's next visit. Our sample consisted of a selection of patients who visited the epilepsy clinic at our hospital consecutively during one year. Their clinical situation and relationship with the medical advice they were given, together with the factors involved in the time elapsed until the next visit, were analysed by means of predictive econometric models. There is a clear association between the patient's clinical situation and the modification of the treatment proposed by the neurologist in the previous visit. The factors involved in the time until the next visit were the frequency of seizures, adverse side effects from medicines -above all those that affect cognition- and the medical advice given to the patient. Polytherapy, psychoaffective disorders or the patient's social situation were not found to be significant. Follow-up visits in a specific epilepsy clinic improves the patient's situation. This is the first analysis of the demand for healthcare in patients with epilepsy conducted by means of econometric methods and from a mixed physician-patient perspective. Since the factors that determine the time until the next visit can be modified, the number of visits per year could be reduced, thus improving patients' clinical situation. We suggest a greater amount of time should be spent per visit so as to be able to have a bearing on it and thereby cut costs in the long term.

  4. Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Harder, B.J.

    1995-03-01

    Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be mademore » to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.« less

  5. 49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211... Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.211 Security of warning system apparatus. Highway-rail grade crossing warning system apparatus shall be secured against unauthorized entry. ...

  6. 49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211... Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.211 Security of warning system apparatus. Highway-rail grade crossing warning system apparatus shall be secured against unauthorized entry. ...

  7. Security Systems Consideration: A Total Security Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margariti, S. V.; Meletiou, G.; Stergiou, E.; Vasiliadis, D. C.; Rizos, G. E.

    2007-12-01

    The "safety" problem for protection systems is to determine in a given situation whether a subject can acquire a particular right to an object. Security and audit operation face the process of securing the application on computing and network environment; however, storage security has been somewhat overlooked due to other security solutions. This paper identifies issues for data security, threats and attacks, summarizes security concepts and relationships, and also describes storage security strategies. It concludes with recommended storage security plan for a total security solution.

  8. An E-Hospital Security Architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Fang; Adams, Carlisle

    In this paper, we introduce how to use cryptography in network security and access control of an e-hospital. We first define the security goal of the e-hospital system, and then we analyze the current application system. Our idea is proposed on the system analysis and the related regulations of patients' privacy protection. The security of the whole application system is strengthened through layered security protection. Three security domains in the e-hospital system are defined according to their sensitivity level, and for each domain, we propose different security protections. We use identity based cryptography to establish secure communication channel in the backbone network and policy based cryptography to establish secure communication channel between end users and the backbone network. We also use policy based cryptography in the access control of the application system. We use a symmetric key cryptography to protect the real data in the database. The identity based and policy based cryptography are all based on elliptic curve cryptography—a public key cryptography.

  9. Evaluating Factors of Security Policy on Information Security Effectiveness in Developing Nations: A Case of Nigeria

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okolo, Nkiru Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    Information systems of today face more potential security infringement than ever before. The regular susceptibility of data to breaches is a function of systems users' disinclination to follow appropriate security measures. A well-secured system maintains integrity, confidentiality, and availability, while providing appropriate and consistent…

  10. The Science of Transportation Analysis and Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleibe, John

    2010-03-01

    Transportation Science focuses on methods developed to model and analyze the interaction between human behavior and transportation systems. From the human behavioral, or demand, perspective, we are interested in how person and households organize their activities across space and time, with travel viewed as an enabling activity. We have a particular interest in how to model the range of responses to public policy and transportation system changes, which leads to the consideration of both short- and long-term decision-making, interpersonal dependencies, and non-transportation-related opportunities and constraints, including household budgets, land use systems and economic systems. This has led to the development of complex structural econometric modeling systems as well as agent-based simulations. From the transportation systems, or supply, perspective we are interested in the level of service provide by transportation facilities, be it auto, transit or multi-modal systems. This has led to the development of network models and equilibrium concepts as well as hybrid simulation systems based on concepts borrowed from physics, such as fluid flow models, and cellular automata-type models. In this presentation, we review a representative sample of these methods and their use in transportation planning and public policy analysis.

  11. 48 CFR 2301.101 - Purpose.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 2301.101 Federal Acquisition Regulations System SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION GENERAL SOCIAL SECURITY ACQUISITION REGULATION SYSTEM Purpose, Authority, Issuance 2301.101 Purpose. (a) The Social Security... Social Security Administration (SSA) which conform to the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) System. (b...

  12. Quality of protection evaluation of security mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Ksiezopolski, Bogdan; Zurek, Tomasz; Mokkas, Michail

    2014-01-01

    Recent research indicates that during the design of teleinformatic system the tradeoff between the systems performance and the system protection should be made. The traditional approach assumes that the best way is to apply the strongest possible security measures. Unfortunately, the overestimation of security measures can lead to the unreasonable increase of system load. This is especially important in multimedia systems where the performance has critical character. In many cases determination of the required level of protection and adjustment of some security measures to these requirements increase system efficiency. Such an approach is achieved by means of the quality of protection models where the security measures are evaluated according to their influence on the system security. In the paper, we propose a model for QoP evaluation of security mechanisms. Owing to this model, one can quantify the influence of particular security mechanisms on ensuring security attributes. The methodology of our model preparation is described and based on it the case study analysis is presented. We support our method by the tool where the models can be defined and QoP evaluation can be performed. Finally, we have modelled TLS cryptographic protocol and presented the QoP security mechanisms evaluation for the selected versions of this protocol.

  13. 75 FR 71790 - Second Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-11-24

    ... Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of RTCA Special Committee 224 meeting: Airport Security Access Control Systems (Update to... Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems. DATES: The meeting will be held December 9, 2010...

  14. 75 FR 80886 - Third Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-23

    ... 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of RTCA Special Committee 224 meeting: Airport Security Access Control Systems (Update to... Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems. DATES: The meeting will be held January 13, 2011...

  15. 76 FR 9632 - Fifth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-18

    ... 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of RTCA Special Committee 224 meeting: Airport Security Access Control Systems (Update to... Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems. DATES: The meeting will be held March 10, 2011, from...

  16. 76 FR 3931 - Fourth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-01-21

    ... Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of RTCA Special Committee 224 Meeting: Airport Security Access Control Systems (Update to... Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems. DATES: The meeting will be held February 8, 2011...

  17. 47 CFR 80.277 - Ship Security Alert System (SSAS).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Ship Security Alert System (SSAS). 80.277... SERVICES STATIONS IN THE MARITIME SERVICES Equipment Authorization for Compulsory Ships § 80.277 Ship Security Alert System (SSAS). (a) Vessels equipped with a Ship Security Alert System pursuant to the Safety...

  18. 47 CFR 80.277 - Ship Security Alert System (SSAS).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Ship Security Alert System (SSAS). 80.277... SERVICES STATIONS IN THE MARITIME SERVICES Equipment Authorization for Compulsory Ships § 80.277 Ship Security Alert System (SSAS). (a) Vessels equipped with a Ship Security Alert System pursuant to the Safety...

  19. 47 CFR 80.277 - Ship Security Alert System (SSAS).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Ship Security Alert System (SSAS). 80.277... SERVICES STATIONS IN THE MARITIME SERVICES Equipment Authorization for Compulsory Ships § 80.277 Ship Security Alert System (SSAS). (a) Vessels equipped with a Ship Security Alert System pursuant to the Safety...

  20. 47 CFR 80.277 - Ship Security Alert System (SSAS).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Ship Security Alert System (SSAS). 80.277... SERVICES STATIONS IN THE MARITIME SERVICES Equipment Authorization for Compulsory Ships § 80.277 Ship Security Alert System (SSAS). (a) Vessels equipped with a Ship Security Alert System pursuant to the Safety...

  1. 78 FR 7334 - Port Authority Access to Facility Vulnerability Assessments and the Integration of Security Systems

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-01

    ... to Facility Vulnerability Assessments and the Integration of Security Systems AGENCY: Coast Guard...-sharing measures. Security System Integration Alternatives Require each MTSA-regulated facility owner or... other forms of security system integration. Information Requested 1. We request comments on the...

  2. 20 CFR 404.1901 - Introduction.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... social security system of the United States and the social security system of a foreign country. An... be based on a combination of a person's periods of coverage under the social security system of the United States and the social security system of the foreign country. An agreement also provides for the...

  3. 45 CFR 307.13 - Security and confidentiality for computerized support enforcement systems in operation after...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... ENFORCEMENT SYSTEMS § 307.13 Security and confidentiality for computerized support enforcement systems in... systems in operation after October 1, 1997. (a) Information integrity and security. Have safeguards... 45 Public Welfare 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Security and confidentiality for computerized...

  4. 49 CFR 659.21 - System security plan: general requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false System security plan: general requirements. 659.21... State Oversight Agency § 659.21 System security plan: general requirements. (a) The oversight agency shall require the rail transit agency to implement a system security plan that, at a minimum, complies...

  5. Multimedia Security System for Security and Medical Applications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhou, Yicong

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation introduces a new multimedia security system for the performance of object recognition and multimedia encryption in security and medical applications. The system embeds an enhancement and multimedia encryption process into the traditional recognition system in order to improve the efficiency and accuracy of object detection and…

  6. 75 FR 61819 - First Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-10-06

    ... 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of RTCA Special Committee 224 meeting: Airport Security Access Control Systems (Update to... Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems. DATES: The meeting will be held November 2, 2010...

  7. 76 FR 16470 - Sixth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-23

    ... 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Notice of RTCA Special Committee 224 meeting: Airport Security Access Control Systems (Update to... Committee 224: Airport Security Access Control Systems DATES: The meeting will be held April 13, 2011, from...

  8. Synthetic Indicators of Quality of Life in Europe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Somarriba, Noelia; Pena, Bernardo

    2009-01-01

    For more than three decades now, sociologists, politicians and economists have used a wide range of statistical and econometric techniques to analyse and measure the quality of life of individuals with the aim of obtaining useful instruments for social, political and economic decision making. The aim of this paper is to analyse the advantages and…

  9. Gender and Migration Background in Intergenerational Educational Mobility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schneebaum, Alyssa; Rumplmaier, Bernhard; Altzinger, Wilfried

    2016-01-01

    We employ 2011 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey data for Austria to perform uni- and multivariate econometric analyses to study the role of gender and migration background (MB) in intergenerational educational mobility. We find that there is more persistence in the educational attainment of girls relative to their…

  10. Grade Repetition in Honduran Primary Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall, Jeffery H.

    2003-01-01

    This paper looks at several dimensions of the grade failure issue in Honduras using a unique data set compiled by the UMCE evaluation project in 1998 and 1999. The analytical framework incorporates econometric analysis of standardized tests and teacher pass/fail decisions for roughly 13,000 second and fourth grade students. The results show that…

  11. Gaming via Computer Simulation Techniques for Junior College Economics Education. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Fred A.

    A study designed to answer the need for more attractive and effective economics education involved the teaching of one junior college economics class by the conventional (lecture) method and an experimental class by computer simulation techniques. Econometric models approximating the "real world" were computer programed to enable the experimental…

  12. School District Leave Policies, Teacher Absenteeism, and Student Achievement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehrenberg, Ronald G.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Econometric analysis of data from over 700 New York state school districts found that (1) policies governing use of teacher leave days clearly influence their use; (2) higher student absenteeism correlated with poorer test performance; and (3) teacher absence was not largely associated with student test performance. Changes in leave policy were…

  13. The Effect of School Size on Exam Performance in Secondary Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bradley, Steve; Taylor, Jim

    1998-01-01

    Examines the effects of school size on exam performance for pupils in their final year of compulsory education in England. Background information about English secondary schools and the determinants of exam performance are discussed along with a description of the variables used in the econometric analysis and their expected effects on exam…

  14. Dreams Deferred? The Relationship between Early and Later Postsecondary Educational Aspirations among Racial/Ethnic Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Michelle Asha

    2009-01-01

    This study uses data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 to test a conceptual model that integrates aspects of sociological and econometric frameworks into a traditional status attainment model for educational aspirations. Using descriptive and logistic analyses, this study advanced understanding of the patterns and stability of…

  15. Learning-Testing Process in Classroom: An Empirical Simulation Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buda, Rodolphe

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical micro-simulation model of the teaching and the testing process in the classroom (Programs and sample data are available--the actual names of pupils have been hidden). It is a non-econometric micro-simulation model describing informational behaviors of the pupils, based on the observation of the pupils'…

  16. Lessons in Reading Reform: Finding What Works. Technical Appendix

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Betts, Julian R.; Zau, Andrew C.; Koedel, Cory

    2010-01-01

    This technical appendix provides more detail on the reading reforms implemented under the Blueprint for Student Success project in the San Diego Unified School District (SDUSD) between 2000 and 2005. It provides details on the dataset, the econometric methods the authors employed, and the results, which are also detailed and discussed in the main…

  17. College Choice in America.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manski, Charles F.; And Others

    The processes of choosing a college and being accepted by a college are analyzed, based on data on nearly 23,000 seniors from more than 1,300 high schools from the National Longitudinal Study of the Class of 1972. Econometric modeling and descriptive statistics are provided on: student behavior in selecting a college, choosing school/nonschool…

  18. The determinants of hardwood lumber price

    Treesearch

    William G. Luppold; Jennifer M. Jacobsen; Jennifer M. Jacobsen

    1985-01-01

    Econometric equations were estimated to determine the effects of domestic foreign hardwood lumber demands on oak and hardwood lumber prices. Oak price seemed to be more sensitive to changes in exports than overall hardwood lumber price. However, the main determinants of hardwood lumber and oak lumber prices were found to be domestic demand and millstock levels.

  19. The effect of personal experience on choice-based preferences for wildfire protection programs

    Treesearch

    Tom Holmes; Armando Gonzalez-Caban; John Loomis; Jose Sanchez

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate homeowner preferences and willingness to pay for wildfire protection programs using a choice experiment with three attributes: risk, loss and cost. Preference heterogeneity among survey respondents was examined using three econometric models and risk preferences were evaluated by comparing willingness to pay for wildfire protection...

  20. School Cost Functions: A Meta-Regression Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Colegrave, Andrew D.; Giles, Margaret J.

    2008-01-01

    The education cost literature includes econometric studies attempting to determine economies of scale, or estimate an optimal school or district size. Not only do their results differ, but the studies use dissimilar data, techniques, and models. To derive value from these studies requires that the estimates be made comparable. One method to do…

  1. Wage Determinants among Medical Doctors and Nurses in Spain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salas-Velasco, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the determination of wage rates for health professionals using three well known, and commonly used, econometric techniques: ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and Heckman's method. The data come from a graduate survey and the analysis focuses on a regional labor market, due to nationwide information on salaries is…

  2. Revisiting the Principle of Relative Constancy: Consumer Mass Media Expenditures in Belgium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dupagne, Michel; Green, R. Jeffery

    1996-01-01

    Proposes two new econometric models for testing the principle of relative constancy (PRC). Reports on regression and cointegration analyses conducted with Belgian mass media expenditure data from 1953-91. Suggests that alternative mass media expenditure models should be developed because PRC lacks of economic foundation and sound empirical…

  3. Investment in Communications and Transportation: Socio-economic Impacts on Rural Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilewick, Carol Lee; And Others

    Two rural counties served as model areas in a comparison of the size and sequence of socioeconomic changes that investment in communications, as opposed to investment in transportation networks, might stimulate. A series of communications, rail, and highway changes were simulated through the use of an econometric model. An Industrial Communication…

  4. Unionism and Productivity in West Virginia Coal Mining.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boal, William M.

    1990-01-01

    This study presents econometric estimates of the effects of unionism on productivity in 83 West Virginia coal mines in the early 1920s. Results show that unionism significantly reduced productivity at small mines but not at large mines. The author ascribes this effect to systematic differences between small and large operations in the quality of…

  5. Estimated Effects of Retirement Revision on Retention of Navy Tactical Pilots.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-12-01

    detailed explanation of the procedure and proofs can be found in Hanushek and Jackson [Ref. 441. S511 ,V. 󈧈 VI. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS A. DESCRIPTIVE...Introduction to Econometrics, pp. 242-243, Prentice-Hall, 1978. 44. Hanushek Eric ard Jackson, John, Statistical .Mlethods for Social Scientists, p. S188

  6. Eric O'Shaughnessy | NREL

    Science.gov Websites

    of residential solar PV markets. Eric leads the lab's solar data partnerships program. Eric's current green power market research. Research Interests Economic analysis, econometrics, distributed solar PV . Ardani, R. Margolis. 2018. Solar plus: Optimization of distributed solar PV through battery storage and

  7. Analyzing the Cost-Effectiveness of Instruction Expenditures towards High School Completion among Oahu's Public School Districts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ng, Larson S. W. M.

    2011-01-01

    The following study attempted to ascertain the instructional cost-effectiveness of public high school teachers towards high school completion through a financially based econometric analysis. Essentially, public high school instruction expenditures and completer data were collected from 2000 to 2007 and bivariate interaction analyzed through a…

  8. Examining the Earnings Trajectories of Community College Students Using a Piecewise Growth Curve Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jaggars, Shanna Smith; Xu, Di

    2016-01-01

    Policymakers have become increasingly concerned with measuring--and holding colleges accountable for--students' labor market outcomes. In this article we introduce a piecewise growth curve approach to analyzing community college students' labor market outcomes, and we discuss how this approach differs from two popular econometric approaches:…

  9. Teaching Students with Visual Impairments in an Inclusive Educational Setting: A Case from Nepal

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamichhane, Kamal

    2017-01-01

    Using the data set from teachers and students and utilising both qualitative and quantitative techniques for analysis, I discuss teaching style considerations in Nepal's mainstream schools for students with visual impairments. Results of the econometric analysis show that teachers' years of schooling, teaching experience, and using blackboard were…

  10. A Diagrammatic Exposition of Regression and Instrumental Variables for the Beginning Student

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Gigi

    2009-01-01

    Some beginning students of statistics and econometrics have difficulty with traditional algebraic approaches to explaining regression and related techniques. For these students, a simple and intuitive diagrammatic introduction as advocated by Kennedy (2008) may prove a useful framework to support further study. The author presents a series of…

  11. Cognitive Functioning and the Probability of Falls among Seniors in Havana, Cuba

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trujillo, Antonio J.; Hyder, Adnan A.; Steinhardt, Laura C.

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the connection between cognitive functioning and falls among seniors (greater than or equal to 60 years of age) in Havana, Cuba, after controlling for observable characteristics. Using the SABE (Salud, Bienestar, and Envejecimiento) cross-sectional database, we used an econometric strategy that takes advantage of available…

  12. Decisions That Affect Outcomes in the Distant Future.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-12-01

    cost-he.n- efit analysis is a special case of the results lerived in this rvso arch . %; In Chapter 3, the assumptions underlying willingness to pay are...p°,m°,z°). This information would generally cone from ex- perts or econometric studies. 5.5 Consistency Conditions There are two ways in which we

  13. Web-based Learning Environments Guided by Principles of Good Teaching Practice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chizmar, John F.; Walbert, Mark S.

    1999-01-01

    Describes the preparation and execution of a statistics course, an undergraduate econometrics course, and a microeconomic theory course that all utilize Internet technology. Reviews seven principles of teaching practice in order to demonstrate how to enhance the quality of student learning using Web technologies. Includes reactions by Steve Hurd…

  14. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 1. The Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  15. Handbook of the Economics of Education. Volume 3

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanushek, Eric A., Ed.; Machin, Stephen J., Ed.; Woessmann, Ludger, Ed.

    2011-01-01

    How does education affect economic and social outcomes, and how can it inform public policy? Volume 3 of the Handbooks in the Economics of Education uses newly available high quality data from around the world to address these and other core questions. With the help of new methodological approaches, contributors cover econometric methods and…

  16. Economic factors influencing land use changes in the South-Central United States

    Treesearch

    Ralph J. Alig; Fred C. White; Brian C. Murray

    1988-01-01

    Econometric models of land use change were estimated for two physiographic regions in the South-Central United States. Results are consistent-with the economic hierarchy of land use, with population and personal income being significant explanatory variables. Findings regarding the importance of relative agricultural and forestry market-based incomes in influencing...

  17. The Costs and Benefits of Deferred Giving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fink, Norman S.; Metzler, Howard C.

    It is argued in this book that while there can be a significant payoff for deferred giving programs, it is important to determine their cost effectiveness. Modern business methods of cost accounting, benefits analysis, and actuarial and econometric forecasting are applied to the Pomona College plan, whose study was supported by Lilly Endowment,…

  18. New Employment Forecasts. Hotel and Catering Industry 1988-1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Measurement for Management Decision, Ltd., London (England).

    Econometric forecasting models were used to forecast employment levels in the hotel and catering industry in Great Britain through 1993 under several different forecasting scenarios. The growth in employment in the hotel and catering industry over the next 5 years is likely to be broadly based, both across income levels of domestic consumers,…

  19. Influences on Labor Market Outcomes of African American College Graduates: A National Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strayhorn, Terrell L.

    2008-01-01

    Using an expanded econometric model, this study sought to estimate more precisely the net effect of independent variables (i.e., attending an HBCU) on three measures of labor market outcomes for African American college graduates. Findings reveal a statistically significant, albeit moderate, relationship between measures of background, human and…

  20. Lecture Attendance, Study Time, and Academic Performance: A Panel Data Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrietti, Vincenzo; Velasco, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    The authors analyze matched administrative survey data on economics students enrolled in two econometrics courses offered in consecutive terms at a major public university in Spain to assess the impact of lecture attendance and study time on academic performance. Using proxy variables in a cross-sectional regression setting, they find a positive…

  1. The Relationship of Class Size Effects and Teacher Salary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peevely, Gary; Hedges, Larry; Nye, Barbara A.

    2005-01-01

    The effects of class size on academic achievement have been studied for decades. Although the results of small-scale, randomized experiments and large-scale, econometric studies point to positive effects of small classes, some scholars see the evidence as ambiguous. Recent analyses from a 4-year, large-scale, randomized experiment on the effects…

  2. Defense Spending and Regional Growth: An Examination of an Export-Base Model and an Econometric Model.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-06-01

    consumer preferences provide influences that can stimulate the rate of growth of the endogenous and/or exogenous income industries. B. EXPORT INDUSTRIES...location quotient was selected to alleviate 12 some of the problems created by consumer preferences and expendi- ture patterns. This value was compared

  3. Resource Allocation in Public Research Universities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Santos, Jose L.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to conduct an econometric analysis of internal resource allocation. Two theories are used for this study of resource allocation in public research universities, and these are: (1) Theory of the Firm; and (2) Resource Dependence Theory. This study used the American Association of Universities Data Exchange (AAUDE)…

  4. Child Care and the Labor Supply of Married Women: Reduced Form Evidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ribar, David C.

    1992-01-01

    With data from the Survey of Income Program Participation, a three-equation, reduced-form econometric model is used to generate estimates revealing that the cost of market child care decreases the labor force participation of married women. High wages increase likelihood of working and use of paid child care. (SK)

  5. The Effect of Income Taxation on Labor Supply in the United States.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Triest, Robert K.

    1990-01-01

    A study used an econometric model to examine the effect of income taxation on labor supply of married women and men. Male labor supply was found to be relatively invariant to income. Impact on married women depended upon the method used to estimate the labor supply function. (SK)

  6. Economic impacts of hurricanes on forest owners

    Treesearch

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2010-01-01

    We present a conceptual model of the economic impacts of hurricanes on timber producers and consumers, offer a framework indicating how welfare impacts can be estimated using econometric estimates of timber price dynamics, and illustrate the advantages of using a welfare theoretic model, which includes (1) welfare estimates that are consistent with neo-classical...

  7. 10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

  8. 10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

  9. 10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

  10. 10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

  11. 10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

  12. An examination of the relationships between hardwood lumber and stumpage prices in Ohio

    Treesearch

    William G. Luppold; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; John E. Baumgras

    1998-01-01

    Understanding the relationship between hardwood lumber and stumpage prices is critical in evaluating market efficiency and in understanding the potential impact of changing technology on stumpage markets. Unfortunately, the complexity of the hardwood lumber market and lack of reliable data make it difficult to evaluate this relationship using traditional econometric...

  13. What Do Cost Functions Tell Us about the Cost of an Adequate Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Costrell, Robert M.; Hanushek, Eric; Loeb, Susanna

    2008-01-01

    Econometric cost functions have begun to appear in education adequacy cases with greater frequency. Cost functions are superficially attractive because they give the impression of objectivity, holding out the promise of scientifically estimating the cost of achieving specified levels of performance from actual data on spending. By contrast, the…

  14. Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach

    PubMed Central

    Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

    2014-01-01

    We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009–10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals. PMID:25843994

  15. Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, William A.; Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna

    2008-06-01

    Grandmont [J.M. Grandmont, On endogenous competitive business cycles, Econometrica 53 (1985) 995-1045] found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models is stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with many forms of multiperiodic dynamics in between. The econometric implications of Grandmont’s findings are particularly important, if bifurcation boundaries cross the confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates in policy-relevant models. Stratification of a confidence region into bifurcated subsets seriously damages robustness of dynamical inferences. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New-Keynesian models. As a result, in this paper we explore bifurcation within the class of New-Keynesian models. We develop the econometric theory needed to locate bifurcation boundaries in log-linearized New-Keynesian models with Taylor policy rules or inflation-targeting policy rules. Central results needed in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the cases that we consider.

  16. Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach.

    PubMed

    Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

    2014-11-01

    We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009-10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals.

  17. Adverse and Advantageous Selection in the Medicare Supplemental Market: A Bayesian Analysis of Prescription drug Expenditure.

    PubMed

    Li, Qian; Trivedi, Pravin K

    2016-02-01

    This paper develops an extended specification of the two-part model, which controls for unobservable self-selection and heterogeneity of health insurance, and analyzes the impact of Medicare supplemental plans on the prescription drug expenditure of the elderly, using a linked data set based on the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data for 2003-2004. The econometric analysis is conducted using a Bayesian econometric framework. We estimate the treatment effects for different counterfactuals and find significant evidence of endogeneity in plan choice and the presence of both adverse and advantageous selections in the supplemental insurance market. The average incentive effect is estimated to be $757 (2004 value) or 41% increase per person per year for the elderly enrolled in supplemental plans with drug coverage against the Medicare fee-for-service counterfactual and is $350 or 21% against the supplemental plans without drug coverage counterfactual. The incentive effect varies by different sources of drug coverage: highest for employer-sponsored insurance plans, followed by Medigap and managed medicare plans. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Perceived and measured stigma among workers with serious mental illness.

    PubMed

    Baldwin, Marjorie L; Marcus, Steven C

    2006-03-01

    This research analyzed the extent to which self-reports of job-related discrimination by persons with serious mental illness are associated with econometric measures of discrimination. Data were from the 1994-1995 National Health Interview Survey-Disability Supplement. Data for workers with mood, psychotic, or anxiety disorders (N=1,139) were compared with data for those without such disorders (N=66,341). The main outcome measures were self-reports of wages and stigmatizing experiences in the workplace. After the analyses controlled for functional limitations and job characteristics, no significant difference in mean wages was found between workers with serious mental illness who did not report experiencing stigma and those with no mental illness. In contrast, for all types of mental disorders examined, mean wages for workers with serious mental illness who reported experiencing stigma were significantly lower than mean wages for those with no mental illness. Workers' self-reports of stigmatizing experiences in the labor market appear to be consistent with econometric measures of the effect of stigma on wages, suggesting that workers know when they are being discriminated against.

  19. Ranking product aspects through sentiment analysis of online reviews

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wei; Wang, Hongwei; Song, Yuan

    2017-03-01

    The electronic word-of-mouth (e-WOM) is one of the most important among all the factors affecting consumers' behaviours. Opinions towards a product through online reviews will influence purchase decisions of other online consumers by changing their perceptions on the product quality. Furthermore, each product aspect may impact consumers' intentions differently. Thus, sentiment analysis and econometric models are incorporated to examine the relationship between purchase intentions and aspect-opinion pairs, which enable the weight estimation for each product aspect. We first identify product aspects and reduce dimensions to extract aspect-opinion pairs. Next the information gain is calculated for each aspect through entropy theory. Based on sentiment polarity and sentiment strength, we formulate an econometric model by integrating the information gain to measure the aspect's weight. In the experiment, we track 386 digital cameras on Amazon for 39 months, and results show that the aspect weight for digital cameras is detected more precisely than TF-ID and HAC algorithms. The results will bridge product aspects and consumption intention to facilitate e-WOM-based marketing.

  20. Econometric Model of Rice Policy Based On Presidential Instruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abadi Sembiring, Surya; Hutauruk, Julia

    2018-01-01

    The objective of research is to build an econometric model based on Presidential Instruction rice policy. The data was monthly time series from March 2005 to September 2009. Rice policy model specification using simultaneous equation, consisting of 14 structural equations and four identity equation, which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that: (1) an increase of government purchasing price of dried harvest paddy has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock, (2) an increase community rice stock lead to decrease the rice imports, (3) an increase of the realization of the distribution of subsidized ZA fertilizers and the realization of the distribution of subsidized NPK fertilizers has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock and to reduce rice imports, (4) the price of the dried harvest paddy is highly responsive to the water content of dried harvest paddy both the short run and long run, (5) the quantity of rice imported is highly responsive to the imported rice price, both short run and long run.

  1. Econometric studies of urban population density: a survey.

    PubMed

    Mcdonald, J F

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the 1st reasonably comprehensive survey of empirical research of urban population densities since the publication of the book by Edmonston in 1975. The survey summarizes contributions to empirical knowledge that have been made since 1975 and points toward possible areas for additional research. The paper also provides a brief interpretative intellectual history of the topic. It begins with a personal overview of research in the field. The next section discusses econometric issues that arise in the estimation of population density functions in which density is a function only of a distance to the central business district of the urban area. Section 4 summarizes the studies of a single urban area that went beyond the estimation of simple distance-density functions, and Section 5 discusses studies that sought to explain the variations across urban areas in population density patterns. McDonald refers to the standard theory of urban population density throughout the paper. This basic model is presented in the textbook by Mills and Hamilton and it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the model.

  2. Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

    PubMed

    Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

    2009-10-01

    Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.

  3. The systems approach to airport security: The FAA (Federal Aviation Administration)/BWI (Baltimore-Washington International) Airport demonstration project

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Caskey, D.L.; Olascoaga, M.T.

    1990-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has been involved in designing, installing and evaluating security systems for various applications during the past 15 years. A systems approach to security that evolved from this experience was applied to aviation security for the Federal Aviation Administration. A general systems study of aviation security in the United States was concluded in 1987. One result of the study was a recommendation that an enhanced security system concept designed to meet specified objectives be demonstrated at an operational airport. Baltimore-Washington International Airport was selected as the site for the demonstration project which began in 1988 and will bemore » completed in 1992. This article introduced the systems approach to airport security and discussed its application at Baltimore-Washington International Airport. Examples of design features that could be included in an enhanced security concept also were presented, including details of the proposed Ramps Area Intrusion Detection System (RAIDS).« less

  4. Research and realization of info-net security controlling system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Tao; Zhang, Wei; Li, Xuhong; Wang, Xia; Pan, Wenwen

    2017-03-01

    The thesis introduces some relative concepts about Network Cybernetics, and we design and realize a new info-net security controlling system based on Network Cybernetics. The system can control the endpoints, safely save files, encrypt communication, supervise actions of users and show security conditions, in order to realize full-scale security management. At last, we simulate the functions of the system. The results show, the system can ensure the controllability of users and devices, and supervise them real-time. The system can maximize the security of the network and users.

  5. Privacy vs usability: a qualitative exploration of patients' experiences with secure Internet communication with their general practitioner.

    PubMed

    Tjora, Aksel; Tran, Trung; Faxvaag, Arild

    2005-05-31

    Direct electronic communication between patients and physicians has the potential to empower patients and improve health care services. Communication by regular email is, however, considered a security threat in many countries and is not recommended. Systems which offer secure communication have now emerged. Unlike regular email, secure systems require that users authenticate themselves. However, the authentication steps per se may become barriers that reduce use. The objective was to study the experiences of patients who were using a secure electronic communication system. The focus of the study was the users' privacy versus the usability of the system. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 15 patients who used a secure communication system (MedAxess) to exchange personal health information with their primary care physician. Six main themes were identified from the interviews: (1) supporting simple questions, (2) security issues, (3) aspects of written communication, (4) trust in the physician, (5) simplicity of MedAxess, and (6) trouble using the system. By using the system, about half of the patients (8/15) experienced easier access to their physician, with whom they tended to solve minor health problems and elaborate on more complex illness experiences. Two thirds of the respondents (10/15) found that their physician quickly responded to their MedAxess requests. As a result of the security barriers, the users felt that the system was secure. However, due to the same barriers, the patients considered the log-in procedure cumbersome, which had considerable negative impact on the actual use of the system. Despite a perceived need for secure electronic patient-physician communication systems, security barriers may diminish their overall usefulness. A dual approach is necessary to improve this situation: patients need to be better informed about security issues, and, at the same time, their experiences of using secure systems must be studied and used to improve user interfaces.

  6. Privacy vs Usability: A Qualitative Exploration of Patients' Experiences With Secure Internet Communication With Their General Practitioner

    PubMed Central

    Tran, Trung; Faxvaag, Arild

    2005-01-01

    Background Direct electronic communication between patients and physicians has the potential to empower patients and improve health care services. Communication by regular email is, however, considered a security threat in many countries and is not recommended. Systems which offer secure communication have now emerged. Unlike regular email, secure systems require that users authenticate themselves. However, the authentication steps per se may become barriers that reduce use. Objectives The objective was to study the experiences of patients who were using a secure electronic communication system. The focus of the study was the users' privacy versus the usability of the system. Methods Qualitative interviews were conducted with 15 patients who used a secure communication system (MedAxess) to exchange personal health information with their primary care physician. Results Six main themes were identified from the interviews: (1) supporting simple questions, (2) security issues, (3) aspects of written communication, (4) trust in the physician, (5) simplicity of MedAxess, and (6) trouble using the system. By using the system, about half of the patients (8/15) experienced easier access to their physician, with whom they tended to solve minor health problems and elaborate on more complex illness experiences. Two thirds of the respondents (10/15) found that their physician quickly responded to their MedAxess requests. As a result of the security barriers, the users felt that the system was secure. However, due to the same barriers, the patients considered the log-in procedure cumbersome, which had considerable negative impact on the actual use of the system. Conclusions Despite a perceived need for secure electronic patient-physician communication systems, security barriers may diminish their overall usefulness. A dual approach is necessary to improve this situation: patients need to be better informed about security issues, and, at the same time, their experiences of using secure systems must be studied and used to improve user interfaces. PMID:15998606

  7. FAA computer security : concerns remain due to personnel and other continuing weaknesses

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2000-08-01

    FAA has a history of computer security weaknesses in a number of areas, including its physical security management at facilities that house air traffic control (ATC) systems, systems security for both operational and future systems, management struct...

  8. The political economy of maize production and poverty reduction in Zambia: analysis of the last 50 years.

    PubMed

    Hanjra, Munir A; Culas, Richard J

    2011-01-01

    Poverty and food security are endemic issues in much of sub-Saharan Africa. To eradicate extreme poverty and hunger in the region remains a key Millennium Development Goal. Many African governments have pursued economic reforms and agricultural policy interventions in order to accelerate economic growth that reduces poverty faster. Agricultural policy regimes in Zambia in the last 50 years (1964–2008) are examined here to better understand their likely impact on food security and poverty, with an emphasis on the political economy of maize subsidy policies. The empirical work draws on secondary sources and an evaluation of farm household data from three villages in the Kasama District of Zambia from 1986/87 and 1992/93 to estimate a two-period econometric model to examine the impact on household welfare in a pre- and post-reform period. The analysis shows that past interventions had mixed effects on enhancing the production of food crops such as maize. While such reforms were politically popular, it did not necessarily translate into household-level productivity or welfare gains in the short term. The political economy of reforms needs to respond to the inherent diversity among the poor rural and urban households. The potential of agriculture to generate a more pro-poor growth process depends on the creation of new market opportunities that most benefit the rural poor. The state should encourage private sector investments for addressing infrastructure constraints to improve market access and accelerate more pro-poor growth through renewed investments in agriculture, rural infrastructure, gender inclusion, smarter subsidies and regional food trade. However, the financing of such investments poses significant challenges. There is a need to address impediments to the effective participation of public private investors to generate more effective poverty reduction and hunger eradication programmes. This article also explores the opportunities for new public–private investments through South–South cooperation and Asia-driven growth for reducing poverty in Zambia.

  9. 22 CFR 308.10 - Security of records systems-manual and automated.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true Security of records systems-manual and automated... Security of records systems—manual and automated. The head of the agency has the responsibility of... destruction of manual and automatic record systems. These security safeguards shall apply to all systems in...

  10. 12 CFR 792.67 - Security of systems of records.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security of systems of records. 792.67 Section... AND PRIVACY ACT, AND BY SUBPOENA; SECURITY PROCEDURES FOR CLASSIFIED INFORMATION The Privacy Act § 792.67 Security of systems of records. (a) Each system manager, with the approval of the head of that...

  11. Securing the Global Airspace System Via Identity-Based Security

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ivancic, William D.

    2015-01-01

    Current telecommunications systems have very good security architectures that include authentication and authorization as well as accounting. These three features enable an edge system to obtain access into a radio communication network, request specific Quality-of-Service (QoS) requirements and ensure proper billing for service. Furthermore, the links are secure. Widely used telecommunication technologies are Long Term Evolution (LTE) and Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) This paper provides a system-level view of network-centric operations for the global airspace system and the problems and issues with deploying new technologies into the system. The paper then focuses on applying the basic security architectures of commercial telecommunication systems and deployment of federated Authentication, Authorization and Accounting systems to provide a scalable, evolvable reliable and maintainable solution to enable a globally deployable identity-based secure airspace system.

  12. A wireless electronic monitoring system for securing milk from farm to processor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Womble, Phillip; Hopper, Lindsay; Thompson, Chris; Alexander, Suraj M.; Crist, William; Payne, Fred; Stombaugh, Tim; Paschal, Jon; Moore, Ryan; Luck, Brian; Tabayehnejab, Nasrin

    2008-04-01

    The Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Health and Human Services have targeted bulk food contamination as a focus for attention. The contamination of bulk food poses a high consequence threat to our society. Milk transport falls into three of the 17 targeted NIPP (National Infrastructure Protection Plan) sectors including agriculture-food, public health, and commercial facilities. Minimal security safeguards have been developed for bulk milk transport. The current manual methods of securing milk are paper intensive and prone to errors. The bulk milk transportation sector requires a security enhancement that will both reduce recording errors and enable normal transport activities to occur while providing security against unauthorized access. Milk transportation companies currently use voluntary seal programs that utilize plastic, numbered seals on milk transport tank openings. Our group has developed a Milk Transport Security System which is an electromechanical access control and communication system that assures the secure transport of milk, milk samples, milk data, and security data between locations and specifically between dairy farms, transfer stations, receiving stations, and milk plants. It includes a security monitoring system installed on the milk transport tank, a hand held device, optional printers, data server, and security evaluation software. The system operates automatically and requires minimal or no attention by the bulk milk hauler/sampler. The system is compatible with existing milk transport infrastructure, and has the support of the milk producers, milk transportation companies, milk marketing agencies, and dairy processors. The security protocol developed is applicable for transport of other bulk foods both nationally and internationally. This system adds significantly to the national security infrastructure for bulk food transport. We are currently demonstrating the system in central Kentucky and will report on the results of the demonstration.

  13. Information Systems Security Management: A Review and a Classification of the ISO Standards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsohou, Aggeliki; Kokolakis, Spyros; Lambrinoudakis, Costas; Gritzalis, Stefanos

    The need for common understanding and agreement of functional and non-functional requirements is well known and understood by information system designers. This is necessary for both: designing the "correct" system and achieving interoperability with other systems. Security is maybe the best example of this need. If the understanding of the security requirements is not the same for all involved parties and the security mechanisms that will be implemented do not comply with some globally accepted rules and practices, then the system that will be designed will not necessarily achieve the desired security level and it will be very difficult to securely interoperate with other systems. It is therefore clear that the role and contribution of international standards to the design and implementation of security mechanisms is dominant. In this paper we provide a state of the art review on information security management standards published by the International Organization for Standardization and the International Electrotechnical Commission. Such an analysis is meaningful to security practitioners for an efficient management of information security. Moreover, the classification of the standards in the clauses of ISO/IEC 27001:2005 that results from our analysis is expected to provide assistance in dealing with the plethora of security standards.

  14. Quality of Protection Evaluation of Security Mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Ksiezopolski, Bogdan; Zurek, Tomasz; Mokkas, Michail

    2014-01-01

    Recent research indicates that during the design of teleinformatic system the tradeoff between the systems performance and the system protection should be made. The traditional approach assumes that the best way is to apply the strongest possible security measures. Unfortunately, the overestimation of security measures can lead to the unreasonable increase of system load. This is especially important in multimedia systems where the performance has critical character. In many cases determination of the required level of protection and adjustment of some security measures to these requirements increase system efficiency. Such an approach is achieved by means of the quality of protection models where the security measures are evaluated according to their influence on the system security. In the paper, we propose a model for QoP evaluation of security mechanisms. Owing to this model, one can quantify the influence of particular security mechanisms on ensuring security attributes. The methodology of our model preparation is described and based on it the case study analysis is presented. We support our method by the tool where the models can be defined and QoP evaluation can be performed. Finally, we have modelled TLS cryptographic protocol and presented the QoP security mechanisms evaluation for the selected versions of this protocol. PMID:25136683

  15. 75 FR 49943 - New Agency Information Collection Activity Under OMB Review: Pipeline System Operator Security...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-16

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Transportation Security Administration New Agency Information Collection Activity Under OMB Review: Pipeline System Operator Security Information AGENCY: Transportation... INFORMATION CONTACT: Joanna Johnson, Office of Information Technology, TSA-11, Transportation Security...

  16. System and method for secure group transactions

    DOEpatents

    Goldsmith, Steven Y [Rochester, MN

    2006-04-25

    A method and a secure system, processing on one or more computers, provides a way to control a group transaction. The invention uses group consensus access control and multiple distributed secure agents in a network environment. Each secure agent can organize with the other secure agents to form a secure distributed agent collective.

  17. Contextualizing Secure Information System Design: A Socio-Technical Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charif, Abdul Rahim

    2017-01-01

    Secure Information Systems (SIS) design paradigms have evolved in generations to adapt to IS security needs. However, modern IS are still vulnerable and are far from secure. The development of an underlying IS cannot be reduced to "technological fixes" neither is the design of SIS. Technical security cannot ensure IS security.…

  18. Pitfalls and Security Measures for the Mobile EMR System in Medical Facilities.

    PubMed

    Yeo, Kiho; Lee, Keehyuck; Kim, Jong-Min; Kim, Tae-Hun; Choi, Yong-Hoon; Jeong, Woo-Jin; Hwang, Hee; Baek, Rong Min; Yoo, Sooyoung

    2012-06-01

    The goal of this paper is to examine the security measures that should be reviewed by medical facilities that are trying to implement mobile Electronic Medical Record (EMR) systems designed for hospitals. The study of the security requirements for a mobile EMR system is divided into legal considerations and sectional security investigations. Legal considerations were examined with regard to remote medical services, patients' personal information and EMR, medical devices, the establishment of mobile systems, and mobile applications. For the 4 sectional security investigations, the mobile security level SL-3 from the Smartphone Security Standards of the National Intelligence Service (NIS) was used. From a compliance perspective, legal considerations for various laws and guidelines of mobile EMR were executed according to the model of the legal considerations. To correspond to the SL-3, separation of DMZ and wireless network is needed. Mobile access servers must be located in only the smartphone DMZ. Furthermore, security measures like 24-hour security control, WIPS, VPN, MDM, and ISMS for each section are needed to establish a secure mobile EMR system. This paper suggested a direction for applying regulatory measures to strengthen the security of a mobile EMR system in accordance with the standard security requirements presented by the Smartphone Security Guideline of the NIS. A future study on the materialization of these suggestions after their application at actual medical facilities can be used as an illustrative case to determine the degree to which theory and reality correspond with one another.

  19. Secure electronic commerce communication system based on CA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Deyun; Zhang, Junfeng; Pei, Shujun

    2001-07-01

    In this paper, we introduce the situation of electronic commercial security, then we analyze the working process and security for SSL protocol. At last, we propose a secure electronic commerce communication system based on CA. The system provide secure services such as encryption, integer, peer authentication and non-repudiation for application layer communication software of browser clients' and web server. The system can implement automatic allocation and united management of key through setting up the CA in the network.

  20. Evaluation on Electronic Securities Settlements Systems by AHP Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fukaya, Kiyoyuki; Komoda, Norihisa

    Accompanying the spread of Internet and the change of business models, electronic commerce expands buisness areas. Electronic finance commerce becomes popular and especially online security tradings becoome very popular in this area. This online securitiy tradings have some good points such as less mistakes than telephone calls. In order to expand this online security tradings, the transfer of the security paper is one the largest problems to be solved. Because it takes a few days to transfer the security paper from a seller to a buyer. So the dematerialization of security papers is one of the solutions. The demterilization needs the information systems for setteling security. Some countries such as France, German, United Kingdom and U.S.A. have been strating the dematerialization projects. The legacy assesments on these projects focus from the viewpoint of the legal schemes only and there is no assessment from system architectures. This paper focuses on the information system scheme and valuates these dematerlization projects by AHP methods from the viewpoints of “dematerializaion of security papers", “speed of transfer", “usefulness on the system" and “accumulation of risks". This is the first case of valuations on security settlements systems by AHP methods, especially four counties’ systems.

  1. Protecting intellectual property in space; Proceedings of the Aerospace Computer Security Conference, McLean, VA, March 20, 1985

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    The primary purpose of the Aerospace Computer Security Conference was to bring together people and organizations which have a common interest in protecting intellectual property generated in space. Operational concerns are discussed, taking into account security implications of the space station information system, Space Shuttle security policies and programs, potential uses of probabilistic risk assessment techniques for space station development, key considerations in contingency planning for secure space flight ground control centers, a systematic method for evaluating security requirements compliance, and security engineering of secure ground stations. Subjects related to security technologies are also explored, giving attention to processing requirements of secure C3/I and battle management systems and the development of the Gemini trusted multiple microcomputer base, the Restricted Access Processor system as a security guard designed to protect classified information, and observations on local area network security.

  2. A nonlinear cointegration approach with applications to structural health monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, H.; Worden, K.; Cross, E. J.

    2016-09-01

    One major obstacle to the implementation of structural health monitoring (SHM) is the effect of operational and environmental variabilities, which may corrupt the signal of structural degradation. Recently, an approach inspired from the community of econometrics, called cointegration, has been employed to eliminate the adverse influence from operational and environmental changes and still maintain sensitivity to structural damage. However, the linear nature of cointegration may limit its application when confronting nonlinear relations between system responses. This paper proposes a nonlinear cointegration method based on Gaussian process regression (GPR); the method is constructed under the Engle-Granger framework, and tests for unit root processes are conducted both before and after the GPR is applied. The proposed approach is examined with real engineering data from the monitoring of the Z24 Bridge.

  3. MEDISE: A macroeconomic model for energy planning in Costa Rica

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Booth, S.R.; Leiva, C.L.

    This report describes the development and results of MEDISE, an econometric macroeconomic model for energy planning in Costa Rica. The model is a simultaneous system of 19 equations that was constructed using ENERPLAN, an energy planning tool developed by the United Nations for use in developing countries. The equations were estimated using regression analysis on a data time series of 1966 to 1984. ENERPLAN's model solution package was used to obtain forecasts of 19 economic variables from 1985 to 2005. the modeling effort was conducted jointly by Los Alamos Central American Energy and Resources Project (CAP) personnel and the Energymore » Sector Directorate of Costa Rica during 1986. The CAP was funded by the US Agency for International Development. 6 refs., 3 figs., 11 tabs.« less

  4. Broader health coverage is good for the nation's health: evidence from country level panel data.

    PubMed

    Moreno-Serra, Rodrigo; Smith, Peter C

    2015-01-01

    Progress towards universal health coverage involves providing people with access to needed health services without entailing financial hardship and is often advocated on the grounds that it improves population health. The paper offers econometric evidence on the effects of health coverage on mortality outcomes at the national level. We use a large panel data set of countries, examined by using instrumental variable specifications that explicitly allow for potential reverse causality and unobserved country-specific characteristics. We employ various proxies for the coverage level in a health system. Our results indicate that expanded health coverage, particularly through higher levels of publicly funded health spending, results in lower child and adult mortality, with the beneficial effect on child mortality being larger in poorer countries.

  5. Broader health coverage is good for the nation's health: evidence from country level panel data

    PubMed Central

    Moreno-Serra, Rodrigo; Smith, Peter C

    2015-01-01

    Progress towards universal health coverage involves providing people with access to needed health services without entailing financial hardship and is often advocated on the grounds that it improves population health. The paper offers econometric evidence on the effects of health coverage on mortality outcomes at the national level. We use a large panel data set of countries, examined by using instrumental variable specifications that explicitly allow for potential reverse causality and unobserved country-specific characteristics. We employ various proxies for the coverage level in a health system. Our results indicate that expanded health coverage, particularly through higher levels of publicly funded health spending, results in lower child and adult mortality, with the beneficial effect on child mortality being larger in poorer countries. PMID:25598588

  6. Design and implementation of a secure workflow system based on PKI/PMI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Kai; Jiang, Chao-hui

    2013-03-01

    As the traditional workflow system in privilege management has the following weaknesses: low privilege management efficiency, overburdened for administrator, lack of trust authority etc. A secure workflow model based on PKI/PMI is proposed after studying security requirements of the workflow systems in-depth. This model can achieve static and dynamic authorization after verifying user's ID through PKC and validating user's privilege information by using AC in workflow system. Practice shows that this system can meet the security requirements of WfMS. Moreover, it can not only improve system security, but also ensures integrity, confidentiality, availability and non-repudiation of the data in the system.

  7. Development of quantitative security optimization approach for the picture archives and carrying system between a clinic and a rehabilitation center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haneda, Kiyofumi; Kajima, Toshio; Koyama, Tadashi; Muranaka, Hiroyuki; Dojo, Hirofumi; Aratani, Yasuhiko

    2002-05-01

    The target of our study is to analyze the level of necessary security requirements, to search for suitable security measures and to optimize security distribution to every portion of the medical practice. Quantitative expression must be introduced to our study, if possible, to enable simplified follow-up security procedures and easy evaluation of security outcomes or results. Using fault tree analysis (FTA), system analysis showed that system elements subdivided into groups by details result in a much more accurate analysis. Such subdivided composition factors greatly depend on behavior of staff, interactive terminal devices, kinds of services provided, and network routes. Security measures were then implemented based on the analysis results. In conclusion, we identified the methods needed to determine the required level of security and proposed security measures for each medical information system, and the basic events and combinations of events that comprise the threat composition factors. Methods for identifying suitable security measures were found and implemented. Risk factors for each basic event, a number of elements for each composition factor, and potential security measures were found. Methods to optimize the security measures for each medical information system were proposed, developing the most efficient distribution of risk factors for basic events.

  8. ICS security in maritime transportation : a white paper examining the security and resiliency of critical transportation infrastructure

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2013-07-29

    The John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center was asked by the Office of Security of the Maritime Administration to examine the issue of industrial control systems (ICS) security in the Maritime Transportation System (MTS), and to develop ...

  9. Securing a Lock on Safety.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daneman, Kathy

    1998-01-01

    Describes the integration of security systems to provide enhanced security that is both effective and long lasting. Examines combining card-access systems with camera surveillance, and highly visible emergency phones and security officers. as one of many possible combinations. Some systems most capable of being integrated are listed. (GR)

  10. The electronic security partnership of safety/security and information systems departments.

    PubMed

    Yow, J Art

    2012-01-01

    The ever-changing world of security electronics is reviewed in this article. The author focuses on its usage in a hospital setting and the need for safety/security and information systems departments to work together to protect and get full value from IP systems.

  11. Process Improvement Should Link to Security: SEPG 2007 Security Track Recap

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-09-01

    the Systems Security Engineering Capability Maturity Model (SSE- CMM / ISO 21827) and its use in system software developments ...software development life cycle ( SDLC )? 6. In what ways should process improvement support security in the SDLC ? 1.2 10BPANEL RESOURCES For each... project management, and support practices through the use of the capability maturity models including the CMMI and the Systems Security

  12. Strengthening the Security of ESA Ground Data Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flentge, Felix; Eggleston, James; Garcia Mateos, Marc

    2013-08-01

    A common approach to address information security has been implemented in ESA's Mission Operations (MOI) Infrastructure during the last years. This paper reports on the specific challenges to the Data Systems domain within the MOI and how security can be properly managed with an Information Security Management System (ISMS) according to ISO 27001. Results of an initial security risk assessment are reported and the different types of security controls that are being implemented in order to reduce the risks are briefly described.

  13. Petri net modeling of encrypted information flow in federated cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khushk, Abdul Rauf; Li, Xiaozhong

    2017-08-01

    Solutions proposed and developed for the cost-effective cloud systems suffer from a combination of secure private clouds and less secure public clouds. Need to locate applications within different clouds poses a security risk to the information flow of the entire system. This study addresses this by assigning security levels of a given lattice to the entities of a federated cloud system. A dynamic flow sensitive security model featuring Bell-LaPadula procedures is explored that tracks and authenticates the secure information flow in federated clouds. Additionally, a Petri net model is considered as a case study to represent the proposed system and further validate the performance of the said system.

  14. Addressing software security and mitigations in the life cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilliam, David; Powell, John; Haugh, Eric; Bishop, Matt

    2003-01-01

    Traditionally, security is viewed as an organizational and Information Technology (IIJ systems function comprising of Firewalls, intrusion detection systems (IDS), system security settings and patches to the operating system (OS) and applications running on it. Until recently, little thought has been given to the importance of security as a formal approach in the software life cycle. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory has approached the problem through the development of an integrated formal Software Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) with six foci for the software life cycle.

  15. Addressing software security and mitigations in the life cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilliam, David; Powell, John; Haugh, Eric; Bishop, Matt

    2004-01-01

    Traditionally, security is viewed as an organizational and Information Technology (IT) systems function comprising of firewalls, intrusion detection systems (IDS), system security settings and patches to the operating system (OS) and applications running on it. Until recently, little thought has been given to the importance of security as a formal approach in the software life cycle. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory has approached the problem through the development of an integrated formal Software Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) with six foci for the software life cycle.

  16. Information Systems, Security, and Privacy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ware, Willis H.

    1984-01-01

    Computer security and computer privacy issues are discussed. Among the areas addressed are technical and human security threats, security and privacy issues for information in electronic mail systems, the need for a national commission to examine these issues, and security/privacy issues relevant to colleges and universities. (JN)

  17. Wide Area Security Region Final Report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Guo, Xinxin

    2010-03-31

    This report develops innovative and efficient methodologies and practical procedures to determine the wide-area security region of a power system, which take into consideration all types of system constraints including thermal, voltage, voltage stability, transient and potentially oscillatory stability limits in the system. The approach expands the idea of transmission system nomograms to a multidimensional case, involving multiple system limits and parameters such as transmission path constraints, zonal generation or load, etc., considered concurrently. The security region boundary is represented using its piecewise approximation with the help of linear inequalities (so called hyperplanes) in a multi-dimensional space, consisting of systemmore » parameters that are critical for security analyses. The goal of this approximation is to find a minimum set of hyperplanes that describe the boundary with a given accuracy. Methodologies are also developed to use the security hyperplanes, pre-calculated offline, to determine system security margins in real-time system operations, to identify weak elements in the system, and to calculate key contributing factors and sensitivities to determine the best system controls in real time and to assist in developing remedial actions and transmission system enhancements offline . A prototype program that automates the simulation procedures used to build the set of security hyperplanes has also been developed. The program makes it convenient to update the set of security hyperplanes necessitated by changes in system configurations. A prototype operational tool that uses the security hyperplanes to assess security margins and to calculate optimal control directions in real time has been built to demonstrate the project success. Numerical simulations have been conducted using the full-size Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system model, and they clearly demonstrated the feasibility and the effectiveness of the developed technology. Recommendations for the future work have also been formulated.« less

  18. 75 FR 8088 - Privacy Act of 1974; Department of Homeland Security/ALL-023 Personnel Security Management System...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-23

    ... risk of harm to economic or property interests, identity theft or fraud, or harm to the security or... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Office of the Secretary [Docket No. DHS-2009-0041] Privacy Act of 1974; Department of Homeland Security/ALL--023 Personnel Security Management System of Records AGENCY...

  19. Building Security. Honeywell Planning Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Honeywell, Inc., Minneapolis, Minn.

    A general discussion of building detection and alarm systems to provide security against burglary and vandalism is provided by a manufacturer of automated monitoring and control systems. Security systems are identified as--(1) local alarm system, (2) central station alarm system, (3) proprietary alarm system, and (4) direct connect alarm system..…

  20. Using SysML to model complex systems for security.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cano, Lester Arturo

    2010-08-01

    As security systems integrate more Information Technology the design of these systems has tended to become more complex. Some of the most difficult issues in designing Complex Security Systems (CSS) are: Capturing Requirements: Defining Hardware Interfaces: Defining Software Interfaces: Integrating Technologies: Radio Systems: Voice Over IP Systems: Situational Awareness Systems.

  1. Perimeter security alarm system based on fiber Bragg grating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Cui; Wang, Lixin

    2010-11-01

    With the development of the society and economy and the improvement of living standards, people need more and more pressing security. Perimeter security alarm system is widely regarded as the first line of defense. A highly sensitive Fiber Bragg grating (FBG) vibration sensor based on the theory of the string vibration, combined with neural network adaptive dynamic programming algorithm for the perimeter security alarm system make the detection intelligently. Intelligent information processing unit identify the true cause of the vibration of the invasion or the natural environment by analyzing the frequency of vibration signals, energy, amplitude and duration. Compared with traditional perimeter security alarm systems, such as infrared perimeter security system and electric fence system, FBG perimeter security alarm system takes outdoor passive structures, free of electromagnetic interference, transmission distance through optical fiber can be as long as 20 km It is able to detect the location of event within short period of time (high-speed response, less than 3 second).This system can locate the fiber cable's breaking sites and alarm automatically if the cable were be cut. And the system can prevent effectively the false alarm from small animals, birds, strong wind, scattering things, snowfalls and vibration of sensor line itself. It can also be integrated into other security systems. This system can be widely used in variety fields such as military bases, nuclear sites, airports, warehouses, prisons, residence community etc. It will be a new force of perimeter security technology.

  2. Cyber Security Assessment Report: Adventium Labs

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    None

    2007-12-31

    Major control system components often have life spans of 15-20 years. Many systems in our Nation's critical infrastructure were installed before the Internet became a reality and security was a concern. Consequently, control systems are generally insecure. Security is now being included in the development of new control system devices; however, legacy control systems remain vulnerable. Most efforts to secure control systems are aimed at protecting network borers, but if an intruder gets inside the network these systems are vulnerable to a cyber attack.

  3. 78 FR 16757 - Twentieth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 224, Airport Security Access Control Systems

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-03-18

    ... Committee 224, Airport Security Access Control Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION: Meeting Notice of RTCA Special Committee 224, Airport Security... meeting of the RTCA Special Committee 224, Airport Security Access Control Systems. DATES: The meeting...

  4. 77 FR 64838 - Sixteenth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 224, Airport Security Access Control Systems

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-23

    ... Committee 224, Airport Security Access Control Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION: Meeting Notice of RTCA Special Committee 224, Airport Security... meeting of the RTCA Special Committee 224, Airport Security Access Control Systems. DATES: The meeting...

  5. 77 FR 55894 - Fifteenth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 224, Airport Security Access Control Systems

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-09-11

    ... Committee 224, Airport Security Access Control Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION: Meeting Notice of RTCA Special Committee 224, Airport Security... meeting of the RTCA Special Committee 224, Airport Security Access Control Systems DATES: The meeting will...

  6. 78 FR 43963 - Twenty-Third Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 224, Airport Security Access Control Systems

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-07-22

    ... Committee 224, Airport Security Access Control Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION: Meeting Notice of RTCA Special Committee 224, Airport Security... meeting of the RTCA Special Committee 224, Airport Security Access Control Systems. DATES: The meeting...

  7. Developing an Undergraduate Information Systems Security Track

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Aditya; Murphy, Marianne C.; Rosso, Mark A.; Grant, Donna

    2013-01-01

    Information Systems Security as a specialized area of study has mostly been taught at the graduate level. This paper highlights the efforts of establishing an Information Systems (IS) Security track at the undergraduate level. As there were many unanswered questions and concerns regarding the Security curriculum, focus areas, the benefit of…

  8. Designing a Retirement System for Federal Workers Covered by Social Security.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Library of Congress, Washington, DC. Congressional Research Service.

    A study examined principal cost and benefit issues to be resolved in designing a new retirement system for Federal workers covered by Social Security. The new Federal system would be built on the base of Social Security and would take into account the Social Security program's taxes and benefits. The current Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS)…

  9. An Econometric Study of Public School Expenditure Variations Across States, 1951-1967.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barro, Stephen M.

    Nine sets of annual data on State school finances are used to test a theory of expenditure determination by public school districts. The results support implications of the theory regarding effects of personal income, State and federal aid, the relative price of education, the pupil/population ratio, and enrollment growth on per pupil spending. A…

  10. Measuring ICT Use and Learning Outcomes: Evidence from Recent Econometric Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Biagi, Federico; Loi, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    Based on PISA 2009 data, this article studies the relationship between students' computer use and their achievement in reading, mathematics and science in 23 countries. After having categorised computer use into a set of different activities according to the skills they involve, we correlate students' PISA test-scores with an index capturing the…

  11. Revealing Failures in the History of School Finance. NBER Working Paper No. 15491

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindert, Peter H.

    2009-01-01

    This essay proposes a set of non-econometric tests using data on wage structure, school resource costs, public expenditures, taxes, and rates of return to explain anomalies in which richer political units deliver less education than poorer ones. Both the anomalies of education history, and its less surprising contrasts, fit broad patterns that can…

  12. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 3. Appendices to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  13. Disentangling the Circularity in Sen's Capability Approach: An Analysis of the Co-Evolution of Functioning Achievement and Resources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Binder, Martin; Coad, Alex

    2011-01-01

    There is an ambiguity in Amartya Sen's capability approach as to what constitutes an individual's resources, conversion factors and valuable functionings. What we here call the "circularity problem" points to the fact that all three concepts seem to be mutually endogenous and interdependent. To econometrically account for this…

  14. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. 3050.26 Section 3050.26 Postal Service POSTAL REGULATORY COMMISSION PERSONNEL PERIODIC REPORTING § 3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of each year, the Postal Service shall provide econometric...

  15. Doing a Monty: Who Opened the Door to This Game for Economists?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Round, David K.

    2007-01-01

    The Monty Hall three-door, "Let's Make a Deal" game, named after the 1970s television show, is used widely in economics, econometrics, statistics, and game-theory-based teaching, as well as in many other disciplines. Its solutions and underlying assumptions arouse great passion and argument, in both the academic and popular press. Most economists…

  16. Solicitation and Donation: An Econometric Evaluation of Alumni Generosity in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gottfried, Michael A.; Johnson, Erica L.

    2006-01-01

    This paper evaluates the relationship between alumni solicitation and alumni donation within institutions of higher education. The issue of alumni giving is important for universities because the average cost of university tuition has increased dramatically over the past 20 years at an annual growth rate larger than the United States CPI (Harvard…

  17. National projections of forest and rangeland condition indicators: a supporting technical document for the 1999 RPA assessment.

    Treesearch

    John Hof; Curtis Flather; Tony Baltic; Stephen Davies

    1999-01-01

    The 1999 forest and rangeland condition indicator model is a set of independent econometric production functions for environmental outputs (measured with condition indicators) at the national scale. This report documents the development of the database and the statistical estimation required by this particular production structure with emphasis on two special...

  18. Resources and Constraints: Public Education and the Economic Environment in Ontario, 1978-1987.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foot, David K.

    Considering the national and provincial economic environments for the next decade, this paper projects financial resources and constraints likely to be faced by school boards in Ontario over the same period. The study utilizes an econometric model developed by the Institute for Policy Analysis of the University of Toronto. The findings indicate…

  19. The Changing Role of State Appropriations for Higher Education: An Econometric Analysis from 1985-2008

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mushrush, Christopher E.

    2013-01-01

    Traditionally, public funding of higher education has been viewed as cyclical, where support falls during times of economic downturn and then recovers as the economy improves. This view, however, is being challenged as budgetary shortfalls are becoming more common for states, even in times of economic growth, due to structural constraints. Using…

  20. Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires

    Treesearch

    Thomas P. Holmes; David E. Calkin

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we use operational data collected for large wildland fires to estimate the parameters of economic production functions that relate the rate of fireline construction with the level of fire suppression inputs (handcrews, dozers, engines and helicopters). These parameter estimates are then used to evaluate whether the productivity of fire suppression inputs...

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