Linkages between nutrients and assemblages of macroinvertebrates and fish in wadeable streams: Implication to nutrient criteria development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, L.; Robertson, Dale M.; Garrison, P.J.

2007-01-01

We sampled 240 wadeable streams across Wisconsin for different forms of phosphorus and nitrogen, and assemblages of macroinvertebrates and fish to (1) examine how macroinvertebrate and fish measures correlated with the nutrients; (2) quantify relationships between key biological measures and nutrient forms to identify potential threshold levels of nutrients to support nutrient criteria development; and (3) evaluate the importance of nutrients in influencing biological assemblages relative to other physicochemical factors at different spatial scales. Twenty-three of the 35 fish and 18 of the 26 macroinvertebrate measures significantly correlated (P < 0.05) with at least one nutrient measure. Percentages of carnivorous, intolerant, and omnivorous fishes, index of biotic integrity, and salmonid abundance were fish measures correlated with the most nutrient measures and had the highest correlation coefficients. Percentages of Ephemeroptera-Plecoptera-Trichoptera individuals and taxa, Hilsenhoff biotic index, and mean tolerance value were macroinvertebrate measures that most strongly correlated with the most nutrient measures. Selected biological measures showed clear trends toward degradation as concentrations of phosphorus and nitrogen increased, and some measures showed clear thresholds where biological measures changed drastically with small changes in nutrient concentrations. Our selected environmental factors explained 54% of the variation in the fish assemblages. Of this explained variance, 46% was attributed to catchment and instream habitat, 15% to nutrients, 3% to other water quality measures, and 36% to the interactions among all the environmental variables. Selected environmental factors explained 53% of the variation in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Of this explained variance, 42% was attributed to catchment and instream habitat, 22% to nutrients, 5% to other water quality measures, and 32% to the interactions among all the environmental variables. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

The effect of artificial selection on phenotypic plasticity in maize.

PubMed

Gage, Joseph L; Jarquin, Diego; Romay, Cinta; Lorenz, Aaron; Buckler, Edward S; Kaeppler, Shawn; Alkhalifah, Naser; Bohn, Martin; Campbell, Darwin A; Edwards, Jode; Ertl, David; Flint-Garcia, Sherry; Gardiner, Jack; Good, Byron; Hirsch, Candice N; Holland, Jim; Hooker, David C; Knoll, Joseph; Kolkman, Judith; Kruger, Greg; Lauter, Nick; Lawrence-Dill, Carolyn J; Lee, Elizabeth; Lynch, Jonathan; Murray, Seth C; Nelson, Rebecca; Petzoldt, Jane; Rocheford, Torbert; Schnable, James; Schnable, Patrick S; Scully, Brian; Smith, Margaret; Springer, Nathan M; Srinivasan, Srikant; Walton, Renee; Weldekidan, Teclemariam; Wisser, Randall J; Xu, Wenwei; Yu, Jianming; de Leon, Natalia

2017-11-07

Remarkable productivity has been achieved in crop species through artificial selection and adaptation to modern agronomic practices. Whether intensive selection has changed the ability of improved cultivars to maintain high productivity across variable environments is unknown. Understanding the genetic control of phenotypic plasticity and genotype by environment (G × E) interaction will enhance crop performance predictions across diverse environments. Here we use data generated from the Genomes to Fields (G2F) Maize G × E project to assess the effect of selection on G × E variation and characterize polymorphisms associated with plasticity. Genomic regions putatively selected during modern temperate maize breeding explain less variability for yield G × E than unselected regions, indicating that improvement by breeding may have reduced G × E of modern temperate cultivars. Trends in genomic position of variants associated with stability reveal fewer genic associations and enrichment of variants 0-5000 base pairs upstream of genes, hypothetically due to control of plasticity by short-range regulatory elements.

Five-Photon Absorption and Selective Enhancement of Multiphoton Absorption Processes

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

We study one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-photon absorption of three centrosymmetric molecules using density functional theory. These calculations are the first ab initio calculations of five-photon absorption. Even- and odd-order absorption processes show different trends in the absorption cross sections. The behavior of all even- and odd-photon absorption properties shows a semiquantitative similarity, which can be explained using few-state models. This analysis shows that odd-photon absorption processes are largely determined by the one-photon absorption strength, whereas all even-photon absorption strengths are largely dominated by the two-photon absorption strength, in both cases modulated by powers of the polarizability of the final excited state. We demonstrate how to selectively enhance a specific multiphoton absorption process. PMID:26120588

Five-Photon Absorption and Selective Enhancement of Multiphoton Absorption Processes.

PubMed

Friese, Daniel H; Bast, Radovan; Ruud, Kenneth

2015-05-20

We study one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-photon absorption of three centrosymmetric molecules using density functional theory. These calculations are the first ab initio calculations of five-photon absorption. Even- and odd-order absorption processes show different trends in the absorption cross sections. The behavior of all even- and odd-photon absorption properties shows a semiquantitative similarity, which can be explained using few-state models. This analysis shows that odd-photon absorption processes are largely determined by the one-photon absorption strength, whereas all even-photon absorption strengths are largely dominated by the two-photon absorption strength, in both cases modulated by powers of the polarizability of the final excited state. We demonstrate how to selectively enhance a specific multiphoton absorption process.

Why poverty remains high: the role of income growth, economic inequality, and changes in family structure, 1949-1999.

PubMed

Iceland, John

2003-08-01

After dramatic declines in poverty from 1950 to the early 1970s in the United States, progress stalled. This article examines the association between trends in poverty and income growth, economic inequality, and changes in family structure using three measures of poverty: an absolute measure, a relative measure, and a quasi-relative one. I found that income growth explains most of the trend in absolute poverty, while inequality generally plays the most significant role in explaining trends in relative poverty. Rising inequality in the 1970s and 1980s was especially important in explaining increases in poverty among Hispanics, whereas changes in family structure played a significant role for children and African Americans through 1990. Notably, changes in family structure no longer had a significant association with trends in poverty for any group in the 1990s.

Differences in habitat selection of male and female megrim ( Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis, Walbaum) to the west of Ireland. A result of differences in life-history strategies between the sexes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerritsen, H. D.; McGrath, D.; Lordan, C.; Harlay, X.

2010-11-01

The sex ratio in the catches of megrim ( Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis, Walbaum) varied systematically with depth on three independent trawl survey series off the west coast of Ireland. Female megrim dominated the shallow catches, while males were more common in catches from deeper waters. The size difference between the sexes alone cannot explain this pattern because it remained evident when fish length was taken into account. Therefore size-specific habitat preferences or size-selective fishing mortality cannot fully explain the observed trend in the sex ratio of megrim. Female megrim grow to a larger size, at a faster rate than males and it is likely that their differences in habitat preferences are related to this. Shallower waters are warmer during the growing season and are likely to provide better conditions for fast growth. An understanding of the mechanisms behind these patterns is an important consideration in the management and conservation of this fish stock, which might be particularly vulnerable because the commercial landings are to a large extent dominated by female megrim.

Trends in obesity and energy supply in the WHO MONICA Project.

PubMed

Silventoinen, K; Sans, S; Tolonen, H; Monterde, D; Kuulasmaa, K; Kesteloot, H; Tuomilehto, J

2004-05-01

To examine the relationship between secular trends in energy supply and body mass index (BMI) among several countries. Aggregate level analyses of annually reported country food data against anthropometric data collected in independent cross-sectional samples from 34 populations in 21 countries from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s. Population randomly selected participants aged 35-64 y. BMI data were obtained from the WHO MONICA Project. Food energy supply data were derived from the Food Balance Sheet of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Mean BMI as well as the prevalence of overweight (BMI > or =25 kg/m2) increased in virtually all Western European countries, Australia, the USA, and China. Decreasing trends in BMI were seen in Central and Eastern European countries. Increasing trends in total energy supply per capita were found in most high-income countries and China while decreasing trends existed in Eastern European countries. Between country differences in temporal trends of total energy supply per capita explained 41% of the variation of trends in mean BMI; the effect was similar upon the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Trends in percent of energy supply from total fat per capita had a slight effect on the trends in mean BMI (+7% increment in R2) when the total energy supply per capita was adjusted for, while energy supply from total sweeteners per capita had no additional effect. Increasing energy supply is closely associated with the increase of overweight and obesity in western countries. This emphasizes the importance of dietary issues when coping with the obesity epidemic.

Factors associated with trends in infant and child mortality in developing countries during the 1990s.

PubMed Central

Rutstein, S. O.

2000-01-01

The 1990s have seen a remarkable decrease in mortality among infants and children in most developing countries. In some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, these declines in mortality among children have slowed and are now increasing again. Internationally comparable data derived from survey programmes, such as the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) programme, are available both to document the changes that have occurred in mortality and to provide insight into some of the factors that may explain these trends in mortality. The factors found in repeated DHS programmes that explain these trends fall into five categories: fertility behaviour; nutritional status, breastfeeding, and infant feeding; the use of health services by mothers and for children; environmental health conditions; and socioeconomic status. Both simple analyses and multivariate analyses of changes in these factors between surveys indicate that all factors affected the mortality trends. However, to explain trends in mortality, the variables themselves had to have changed over time. During the 1990s fertility behaviour, breastfeeding, and infant feeding have changed less than other factors and so would seem to have played a smaller role in mortality trends. This study confirms that trends in mortality during the 1990s were related to more than just a handful of variables. It would, therefore, be a mistake to concentrate policy actions on one or a few of these while forsaking others. Countries with the largest decreases in mortality have had substantial improvements in most of the factors that might be used to explain these changes. In some countries mortality has risen. In part these increases can be explained by the factors included in this study, such as deterioration in seeking medical care for children with fever. Other factors that were not measured, such as the increasing resistance of malaria to drug treatment and the increased prevalence of parental HIV/AIDS, may be contributing to the increase noted. PMID:11100620

Trends in laboratory test volumes for Medicare Part B reimbursements, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Shahangian, Shahram; Alspach, Todd D; Astles, J Rex; Yesupriya, Ajay; Dettwyler, William K

2014-02-01

Changes in reimbursements for clinical laboratory testing may help us assess the effect of various variables, such as testing recommendations, market forces, changes in testing technology, and changes in clinical or laboratory practices, and provide information that can influence health care and public health policy decisions. To date, however, there has been no report, to our knowledge, of longitudinal trends in national laboratory test use. To evaluate Medicare Part B-reimbursed volumes of selected laboratory tests per 10,000 enrollees from 2000 through 2010. Laboratory test reimbursement volumes per 10,000 enrollees in Medicare Part B were obtained from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (Baltimore, Maryland). The ratio of the most recent (2010) reimbursed test volume per 10,000 Medicare enrollees, divided by the oldest data (usually 2000) during this decade, called the volume ratio, was used to measure trends in test reimbursement. Laboratory tests with a reimbursement claim frequency of at least 10 per 10,000 Medicare enrollees in 2010 were selected, provided there was more than a 50% change in test reimbursement volume during the 2000-2010 decade. We combined the reimbursed test volumes for the few tests that were listed under more than one code in the Current Procedural Terminology (American Medical Association, Chicago, Illinois). A 2-sided Poisson regression, adjusted for potential overdispersion, was used to determine P values for the trend; trends were considered significant at P < .05. Tests with the greatest decrease in reimbursement volumes were electrolytes, digoxin, carbamazepine, phenytoin, and lithium, with volume ratios ranging from 0.27 to 0.64 (P < .001). Tests with the greatest increase in reimbursement volumes were meprobamate, opiates, methadone, phencyclidine, amphetamines, cocaine, and vitamin D, with volume ratios ranging from 83 to 1510 (P < .001). Although reimbursement volumes increased for most of the selected tests, other tests exhibited statistically significant downward trends in annual reimbursement volumes. The observed changes in reimbursement volumes may be explained by disease prevalence and severity, patterns of drug use, clinical or laboratory practices, and testing recommendations and guidelines, among others. These data may be useful to policy makers, health systems researchers, laboratory directors, and industry scientists to understand, address, and anticipate trends in laboratory testing in the Medicare population.

Trends of urban surface temperature and heat island characteristics in the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benas, Nikolaos; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Cartalis, Constantinos

2017-11-01

Urban air temperature studies usually focus on the urban canopy heat island phenomenon, whereby the city center experiences higher near surface air temperatures compared to its surrounding non-urban areas. The Land Surface Temperature (LST) is used instead of urban air temperature to identify the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI). In this study, the nighttime LST and SUHI characteristics and trends in the seventeen largest Mediterranean cities were investigated, by analyzing satellite observations for the period 2001-2012. SUHI averages and trends were based on an innovative approach of comparing urban pixels to randomly selected non-urban pixels, which carries the potential to better standardize satellite-derived SUHI estimations. A positive trend for both LST and SUHI for the majority of the examined cities was documented. Furthermore, a 0.1 °C decade-1 increase in urban LST corresponded to an increase in SUHI by about 0.04 °C decade-1. A longitudinal differentiation was found in the urban LST trends, with higher positive values appearing in the eastern Mediterranean. Examination of urban infrastructure and development factors during the same period revealed correlations with SUHI trends, which can be used to explain differences among cities. However, the majority of the cities examined show considerably increased trends in terms of the enhancement of SUHI. These findings are considered important so as to promote sustainable urbanization, as well as to support the development of heat island adaptation and mitigation plans in the Mediterranean.

Global Changes In Relative Humidity: Moisture Recycling, Transport Processes And Implications For Drought Severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R. O.; Azorin-Molina, C.

2016-12-01

Climate models and observations suggest that atmospheric humidity is increasing as a consequence of warmer air temperatures according to the Classius-Clapeyron relationship. In addition, given unlimited water availability in oceans it is suggested that relative humidity (RH) would remain constant. Nevertheless, recent global and regional studies have pointed out that RH may be decreasing in large areas of the world, and there are different hypotheses that could explain the possible decrease in RH as related to changes in: (i) the atmospheric circulation and moisture transport processes; (ii) precipitation; (iii) air vapour saturation given different warming in lands and oceans; etc. These trends have strong implications for the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) and drought severity. We analysed changes in RH observed at the global scale for 1979-2014. For this purpose we have used 3462 stations across the world from the HadISDH data set. RH data have been also calculated from daily records of specific humidity, air pressure and air temperature from the ERA-Interim Reanalysis data set. The comparison results between observations and ERA-Interim show a strong agreement in the spatio-temporal variability and magnitude of trends of RH. We have analysed the relationship between the variability and changes in RH, precipitation, air temperature and evaporation at the global scale, concluding that the observed spatial patterns of RH are not well explained by the observed changes in the variability of precipitation and temperature. To improve the knowledge of the possible drivers of the observed trends in RH, we have selected 15 representative areas that showed a different temporal behaviour and applied a Lagrangian model (Flexpart). This has served to identify the humidity sources corresponding to each region, and to know the behaviour showed by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and the evolution of oceanic and continental evaporation processes on the RH variability and trends. The effect of observed RH trends on AED and drought severity has been evaluated by means of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).

Conceptual framework and trend analysis of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses, Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley groundwater basin, Nevada, 1966-2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, Tracie R.; Fenelon, Joseph M.

2018-05-31

This report identifies water-level trends in wells and provides a conceptual framework that explains the hydrologic stresses and factors causing the trends in the Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley (PMOV) groundwater basin, southern Nevada. Water levels in 79 wells were analyzed for trends between 1966 and 2016. The magnitude and duration of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses were analyzed graphically, statistically, and with water-level models.The conceptual framework consists of multiple stress-specific conceptual models to explain water-level responses to the following hydrologic stresses: recharge, evapotranspiration, pumping, nuclear testing, and wellbore equilibration. Dominant hydrologic stresses affecting water-level trends in each well were used to categorize trends as nonstatic, transient, or steady state.The conceptual framework of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses and trend analyses provide a comprehensive understanding of the PMOV basin and vicinity. The trend analysis links water-level fluctuations in wells to hydrologic stresses and potential factors causing the trends. Transient and steady-state trend categorizations can be used to determine the appropriate water-level data for groundwater studies.

Artificial Intelligence in Cardiology.

PubMed

Johnson, Kipp W; Torres Soto, Jessica; Glicksberg, Benjamin S; Shameer, Khader; Miotto, Riccardo; Ali, Mohsin; Ashley, Euan; Dudley, Joel T

2018-06-12

Artificial intelligence and machine learning are poised to influence nearly every aspect of the human condition, and cardiology is not an exception to this trend. This paper provides a guide for clinicians on relevant aspects of artificial intelligence and machine learning, reviews selected applications of these methods in cardiology to date, and identifies how cardiovascular medicine could incorporate artificial intelligence in the future. In particular, the paper first reviews predictive modeling concepts relevant to cardiology such as feature selection and frequent pitfalls such as improper dichotomization. Second, it discusses common algorithms used in supervised learning and reviews selected applications in cardiology and related disciplines. Third, it describes the advent of deep learning and related methods collectively called unsupervised learning, provides contextual examples both in general medicine and in cardiovascular medicine, and then explains how these methods could be applied to enable precision cardiology and improve patient outcomes. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gradual upturn underway in paper, paperboard and woodpulp markets

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Bernard Lombard; Eduard Akim

2002-01-01

This chapter explains recent trends in European, North American and Russian paper and paperboard markets, along with trends in woodpulp and fibre markets. These market trends related to pulpwood use trends which are discussed in preceding chapters in the context of overall trends in wood raw material use. This chapter also reports UNECE/FAO statistics for pulp, paper...

Seniors' prescription drug cost inflation and cost containment: evidence from British Columbia.

PubMed

Morgan, Steven G; Agnew, Jonathan D; Barer, Morris L

2004-06-01

We develop an analytic framework to map out the nature and relative importance of different cost-driving trends in the prescription drug market. This is used to measure prescription drug cost-drivers for the population of seniors in British Columbia during a period when they received comprehensive public drug coverage. Between 1991 and 2001, expenditures on prescription drugs for BC seniors increased from dollar 149 to 320 million. Increases in the population of seniors, and the rate at which they utilized therapies contributed under half of the total cost increase over the period. Changes in the mix of therapies and the type of product selected explained over half of the observed drug expenditure inflation. Increased generic substitution significantly reduced the price of products selected over the period.

Disciplinary competitiveness analysis in international stomatology education.

PubMed

Wen, Ping; Hong, Xiao; Zhu, Lu; Zhang, Linglin; Gu, Xuekui; Gao, Zhihua; Chen, Qianming

2013-11-01

With economic and cultural globalization, the trend of globalization of higher education becomes inevitable. Using the concept of competitiveness, the authors established a principal component analysis (PCA) model to examine disciplinary competitiveness in stomatology of various higher education institutions worldwide. A total of forty-four universities entered the final list according to these calculations. Possible reasons for their selection were explored and explained at macro and micro levels. The authors further accessed various sources of data and summarized several suggestions for enhancing disciplinary competitiveness for other universities in pursuit of promoting their position in the global spectrum.

A bottom-up perspective on ecosystem change in Mesozoic oceans

PubMed Central

Follows, Michael J.

2016-01-01

Mesozoic and Early Cenozoic marine animals across multiple phyla record secular trends in morphology, environmental distribution, and inferred behaviour that are parsimoniously explained in terms of increased selection pressure from durophagous predators. Another systemic change in Mesozoic marine ecosystems, less widely appreciated than the first, may help to explain the observed animal record. Fossils, biomarker molecules, and molecular clocks indicate a major shift in phytoplankton composition, as mixotrophic dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids and, later, diatoms radiated across shelves. Models originally developed to probe the ecology and biogeography of modern phytoplankton enable us to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of these phytoplankton radiations. In particular, our models suggest that the radiation of mixotrophic dinoflagellates and the subsequent diversification of marine diatoms would have accelerated the transfer of primary production upward into larger size classes and higher trophic levels. Thus, phytoplankton evolution provides a mechanism capable of facilitating the observed evolutionary shift in Mesozoic marine animals. PMID:27798303

A bottom-up perspective on ecosystem change in Mesozoic oceans.

PubMed

Knoll, Andrew H; Follows, Michael J

2016-10-26

Mesozoic and Early Cenozoic marine animals across multiple phyla record secular trends in morphology, environmental distribution, and inferred behaviour that are parsimoniously explained in terms of increased selection pressure from durophagous predators. Another systemic change in Mesozoic marine ecosystems, less widely appreciated than the first, may help to explain the observed animal record. Fossils, biomarker molecules, and molecular clocks indicate a major shift in phytoplankton composition, as mixotrophic dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids and, later, diatoms radiated across shelves. Models originally developed to probe the ecology and biogeography of modern phytoplankton enable us to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of these phytoplankton radiations. In particular, our models suggest that the radiation of mixotrophic dinoflagellates and the subsequent diversification of marine diatoms would have accelerated the transfer of primary production upward into larger size classes and higher trophic levels. Thus, phytoplankton evolution provides a mechanism capable of facilitating the observed evolutionary shift in Mesozoic marine animals. © 2016 The Authors.

Comparison of trends in habitat and resource selection by the Spanish Festoon, Zerynthia rumina , and the whole butterfly community in a semiarid Mediterranean ecosystem

PubMed Central

Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; de la Puente Ranea, Daniel; Viejo, José Luis

2014-01-01

Abstract Butterfly community and single species based approaches were taken to establish conservation priorities within a nature reserve in Central Spain. In this study, patch type (sclerophyllous, halophilous, or disturbed), potential herbaceous nectar availability, potential woody plant nectar availability, total nectar availability, and two approximations to plant diversity (herbaceous and woody plant diversity) were evaluated as variables that account for adult butterfly density. Butterfly communities in the reserve, which consist mostly of generalist species, were denser in relatively wet areas dominated by halophilous vegetation. Diversity did not significantly vary between ecologically different transects. Total nectar availability correlated with higher butterfly densities within both undisturbed and disturbed areas, which could be primarily explained by the lack of water typical of semiarid Mediterranean climates, where fresh, nectariferous vegetation is scarce. Woody plants were also found to be important sources of nectar and shelter. In the dryer sclerophyllous sites, adult butterfly density was best explained by herbaceous plant diversity, suggesting better quality of available resources. The endangered specialist Zerynthia rumina (L.) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) was only present at the sclerophyllous sites. Its density was very low in all sampled transects, excluding one relatively isolated transect with high larval hostplant density. In contrast to the community-based approach, density of Z. rumina adults is better explained by the density of its larval hostplant than by nectar availability, a trend previously described for other sedentary species. Management strategies for protecting insect-rich areas should consider the specific ecological requirements of endangered species. PMID:25373198

Gender-Specific Trends in Educational Attainment and Self-Rated Health, 1972–2002

PubMed Central

Hill, Terrence D.; Needham, Belinda L.

2006-01-01

Objectives. We tested whether self-rated health has improved over time (1972–2002) for women and men. We also considered the degree to which historical gains in educational attainment help to explain any observed trends. Methods. Using 21 years of repeated cross-sectional data from the General Social Survey, we estimated a series of ordered logistic regression models predicting self-rated health. Results. Our results show that women’s health status has steadily improved over the 30-year period under study, and these improvements are largely explained by gains in educational attainment. We also found that the health trend for men is nonlinear, suggesting significant fluctuations in health status over time. Conclusions. Based on the linear health status trend and strong mediation pattern for women, and the nonlinear health status trend for men, women have benefited more than men, in terms of self-rated health, from increased educational attainment. PMID:16735623

Forecasting Japanese encephalitis incidence from historical morbidity patterns: Statistical analysis with 27 years of observation in Assam, India.

PubMed

Handique, Bijoy K; Khan, Siraj A; Mahanta, J; Sudhakar, S

2014-09-01

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the dreaded mosquito-borne viral diseases mostly prevalent in south Asian countries including India. Early warning of the disease in terms of disease intensity is crucial for taking adequate and appropriate intervention measures. The present study was carried out in Dibrugarh district in the state of Assam located in the northeastern region of India to assess the accuracy of selected forecasting methods based on historical morbidity patterns of JE incidence during the past 22 years (1985-2006). Four selected forecasting methods, viz. seasonal average (SA), seasonal adjustment with last three observations (SAT), modified method adjusting long-term and cyclic trend (MSAT), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) have been employed to assess the accuracy of each of the forecasting methods. The forecasting methods were validated for five consecutive years from 2007-2012 and accuracy of each method has been assessed. The forecasting method utilising seasonal adjustment with long-term and cyclic trend emerged as best forecasting method among the four selected forecasting methods and outperformed the even statistically more advanced ARIMA method. Peak of the disease incidence could effectively be predicted with all the methods, but there are significant variations in magnitude of forecast errors among the selected methods. As expected, variation in forecasts at primary health centre (PHC) level is wide as compared to that of district level forecasts. The study showed that adopted forecasting techniques could reasonably forecast the intensity of JE cases at PHC level without considering the external variables. The results indicate that the understanding of long-term and cyclic trend of the disease intensity will improve the accuracy of the forecasts, but there is a need for making the forecast models more robust to explain sudden variation in the disease intensity with detail analysis of parasite and host population dynamics.

An evolutionary model to predict the frequency of antibiotic resistance under seasonal antibiotic use, and an application to Streptococcus pneumoniae

PubMed Central

Lehtinen, Sonja; Fraser, Christophe

2017-01-01

The frequency of resistance to antibiotics in Streptococcus pneumoniae has been stable over recent decades. For example, penicillin non-susceptibility in Europe has fluctuated between 12% and 16% without any major time trend. In spite of long-term stability, resistance fluctuates over short time scales, presumably in part due to seasonal fluctuations in antibiotic prescriptions. Here, we develop a model that describes the evolution of antibiotic resistance under selection by multiple antibiotics prescribed at seasonally changing rates. This model was inspired by, and fitted to, published data on monthly antibiotics prescriptions and frequency of resistance in two communities in Israel over 5 years. Seasonal fluctuations in antibiotic usage translate into small fluctuations of the frequency of resistance around the average value. We describe these dynamics using a perturbation approach that encapsulates all ecological and evolutionary forces into a generic model, whose parameters quantify a force stabilizing the frequency of resistance around the equilibrium and the sensitivity of the population to antibiotic selection. Fitting the model to the data revealed a strong stabilizing force, typically two to five times stronger than direct selection due to antibiotics. The strong stabilizing force explains that resistance fluctuates in phase with usage, as antibiotic selection alone would result in resistance fluctuating behind usage with a lag of three months when antibiotic use is seasonal. While most antibiotics selected for increased resistance, intriguingly, cephalosporins selected for decreased resistance to penicillins and macrolides, an effect consistent in the two communities. One extra monthly prescription of cephalosporins per 1000 children decreased the frequency of penicillin-resistant strains by 1.7%. This model emerges under minimal assumptions, quantifies the forces acting on resistance and explains up to 43% of the temporal variation in resistance. PMID:28566489

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanco, Arthur S.; Gerlagh, Reyer; Suh, Sangwon

Chapter 5 analyzes the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends until the present and the main drivers that explain those trends. The chapter uses different perspectives to analyze past GHG-emissions trends, including aggregate emissions flows and per capita emissions, cumulative emissions, sectoral emissions, and territory-based vs. consumption-based emissions. In all cases, global and regional trends are analyzed. Where appropriate, the emission trends are contextualized with long-term historic developments in GHG emissions extending back to 1750.

Time trends in physical activity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil: 2002-2008.

PubMed

Matsudo, Victor K R; Matsudo, Sandra M; Araújo, Timóteo L; Andrade, Douglas R; Oliveira, Luis C; Hallal, Pedro C

2010-12-01

To document time trends in physical activity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil (2002-2008). In addition, we discuss the role of Agita São Paulo at explaining such trends. Cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2008 in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, using comparable sampling approaches and similar sample sizes. In all surveys, physical activity was measured using the short version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Separate weekly scores of walking and moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activities were generated; cutoff points of 0 and 150 min·wk were used. Also, we created a total physical activity score by summing these three types of activity. We used logistic regression models for adjusting time trends for the different sociodemographic compositions of the samples. The prevalence of no physical activity decreased from 9.6% in 2002 to 2.7% in 2008, whereas the proportion of subjects below the 150-min threshold decreased from 43.7% in 2002 to 11.6% in 2008. These trends were mainly explained by increases in walking and moderate-intensity physical activity. Increases in physical activity were slightly greater among females than among males. Logistic regression models confirmed that these trends were not due to the different compositions of the samples. Physical activity levels are increasing in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Considering that the few data available in Brazil using the same instrument indicate exactly the opposite trend and that Agita São Paulo primarily incentives the involvement in moderate-intensity physical activity and walking, it seems that at least part of the trends described here are explained by the Agita São Paulo program.

LC-MS Untargeted Metabolomics To Explain the Signal Metabolites Inducing Browning in Fresh-Cut Lettuce.

PubMed

García, Carlos J; García-Villalba, Rocío; Gil, María I; Tomas-Barberan, Francisco A

2017-06-07

Enzymatic browning is one of the main causes of quality loss in lettuce as a prepared and ready-to-eat cut salad. An untargeted metabolomics approach using UPLC-ESI-QTOF-MS was performed to explain the wound response of lettuce after cutting and to identify the metabolites responsible of browning. Two cultivars of Romaine lettuce with different browning susceptibilities were studied at short time intervals after cutting. From the total 5975 entities obtained from the raw data after alignment, filtration reduced the number of features to 2959, and the statistical analysis found that only 1132 entities were significantly different. Principal component analysis (PCA) clearly showed that these samples grouped according to cultivar and time after cutting. From those, only 15 metabolites belonging to lysophospholipids, oxylipin/jasmonate metabolites, and phenolic compounds were able to explain the browning process. These selected metabolites showed different trends after cutting; some decreased rapidly, others increased but decreased thereafter, whereas others increased during the whole period of storage. In general, the fast-browning cultivar showed a faster wound response and a higher raw intensity of some key metabolites than the slow-browning one. Just after cutting, the fast-browning cultivar contained 11 of the 15 browning-associated metabolites, whereas the slow-browning cultivar only had 5 of them. These metabolites could be used as biomarkers in breeding programs for the selection of lettuce cultivars with lower browning potential for fresh-cut applications.

Strong and consistent natural selection associated with armour reduction in sticklebacks.

PubMed

LE Rouzic, Arnaud; Østbye, Kjartan; Klepaker, Tom O; Hansen, Thomas F; Bernatchez, Louis; Schluter, Dolph; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn

2011-06-01

Measuring the strength of natural selection is tremendously important in evolutionary biology, but remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyse the characteristics of selection for a morphological change (lateral-plate reduction) in the threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus. Adaptation to freshwater, leading with the reduction or loss of the bony lateral armour, has occurred in parallel on numerous occasions in this species. Completely-plated and low-plated sticklebacks were introduced into a pond, and the phenotypic changes were tracked for 20 years. Fish from the last generation were genotyped for the Ectodysplasin-A (Eda) locus, the major gene involved in armour development. We found a strong fitness advantage for the freshwater-type fish (on average, 20% fitness advantage for the freshwater morph, and 92% for the freshwater genotype). The trend is best explained by assuming that this fitness advantage is maximum at the beginning of the invasion and decreases with time. Such fitness differences provide a quantifiable example of rapid selection-driven phenotypic evolution associated with environmental change in a natural population. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Early adolescent friendships and academic adjustment: examining selection and influence processes with longitudinal social network analysis.

PubMed

Shin, Huiyoung; Ryan, Allison M

2014-11-01

This study investigated early adolescent friendship selection and social influence with regard to academic motivation (self-efficacy and intrinsic value), engagement (effortful and disruptive behavior), and achievement (GPA calculated from report card grades) among 6th graders (N = 587, 50% girls at Wave 1; N = 576, 52% girls at Wave 2) followed from fall to spring within 1 academic year. A stochastic actor-based model of social network analysis was used to overcome methodological limitations of prior research on friends, peer groups, and academic adjustment. Evidence that early adolescents sought out friends who were similar to themselves (selection) was found in regard to academic self-efficacy, and a similar trend was found for achievement. Evidence that friends became more similar to their friends over time (influence) was found for all aspects of academic adjustment except academic self-efficacy. Collectively, results indicate that selection effects were not as pervasive as influence effects in explaining similarity among friends in academic adjustment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Comparison of trends in habitat and resource selection by the Spanish Festoon, Zerynthia rumina, and the whole butterfly community in a semiarid Mediterranean ecosystem.

PubMed

Ochoa-Hueso, Raúl; de la Puente Ranea, Daniel; Viejo, José Luis

2014-04-10

Butterfly community and single species based approaches were taken to establish conservation priorities within a nature reserve in Central Spain. In this study, patch type (sclerophyllous, halophilous, or disturbed), potential herbaceous nectar availability, potential woody plant nectar availability, total nectar availability, and two approximations to plant diversity (herbaceous and woody plant diversity) were evaluated as variables that account for adult butterfly density. Butterfly communities in the reserve, which consist mostly of generalist species, were denser in relatively wet areas dominated by halophilous vegetation. Diversity did not significantly vary between ecologically different transects. Total nectar availability correlated with higher butterfly densities within both undisturbed and disturbed areas, which could be primarily explained by the lack of water typical of semiarid Mediterranean climates, where fresh, nectariferous vegetation is scarce. Woody plants were also found to be important sources of nectar and shelter. In the dryer sclerophyllous sites, adult butterfly density was best explained by herbaceous plant diversity, suggesting better quality of available resources. The endangered specialist Zerynthia rumina (L.) (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) was only present at the sclerophyllous sites. Its density was very low in all sampled transects, excluding one relatively isolated transect with high larval hostplant density. In contrast to the community-based approach, density of Z. rumina adults is better explained by the density of its larval hostplant than by nectar availability, a trend previously described for other sedentary species. Management strategies for protecting insect-rich areas should consider the specific ecological requirements of endangered species. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment.

PubMed

Jamieson, Kathleen Hall; Hardy, Bruce W

2014-09-16

This work argues that, in a polarized environment, scientists can minimize the likelihood that the audience's biased processing will lead to rejection of their message if they not only eschew advocacy but also, convey that they are sharers of knowledge faithful to science's way of knowing and respectful of the audience's intelligence; the sources on which they rely are well-regarded by both conservatives and liberals; and the message explains how the scientist arrived at the offered conclusion, is conveyed in a visual form that involves the audience in drawing its own conclusions, and capsulizes key inferences in an illustrative analogy. A pilot experiment raises the possibility that such a leveraging-involving-visualizing-analogizing message structure can increase acceptance of the scientific claims about the downward cross-decade trend in Arctic sea ice extent and elicit inferences consistent with the scientific consensus on climate change among conservatives exposed to misleadingly selective data in a partisan news source.

Mineral production and mining trends for selected non-fuel commodities in Idaho and Montana, 1905-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Jeremy C.; Long, Keith R.; Assmus, Kenneth C.; Zientek, Michael L.

2004-01-01

Idaho and Montana state mining statistics were obtained from historical mineral production records and compiled into a continuous record from 1905 through 2001. To facilitate comparisons, the mineral production data were normalized by converting the units of measure to metric tons for all included commodities. These standardized statistical data include production rates for principal non-fuel mineral commodities from both Idaho and Montana, as well as the production rates of similar commodities for the U.S. and the world for contrast. Data are presented here in both tabular and bar chart format. Moreover, the tables of standardized mineral production data are also provided in digital format as, commodity_production.xls. Some significant historical events pertaining to the mining industry are described as well. When taken into account with the historical production data, this combined information may to help explain both specific fluctuations and general tendencies in the overall trends in the rates of mineral resource production over time.

Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment

PubMed Central

Hall Jamieson, Kathleen; Hardy, Bruce W.

2014-01-01

This work argues that, in a polarized environment, scientists can minimize the likelihood that the audience’s biased processing will lead to rejection of their message if they not only eschew advocacy but also, convey that they are sharers of knowledge faithful to science’s way of knowing and respectful of the audience’s intelligence; the sources on which they rely are well-regarded by both conservatives and liberals; and the message explains how the scientist arrived at the offered conclusion, is conveyed in a visual form that involves the audience in drawing its own conclusions, and capsulizes key inferences in an illustrative analogy. A pilot experiment raises the possibility that such a leveraging–involving–visualizing–analogizing message structure can increase acceptance of the scientific claims about the downward cross-decade trend in Arctic sea ice extent and elicit inferences consistent with the scientific consensus on climate change among conservatives exposed to misleadingly selective data in a partisan news source. PMID:25225380

Explaining Participation: An Explanatory History of Select Gender Patterns in Undergraduate STEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastroianni, Michael Pasquale

This explanatory study examines three focal periods in undergraduate STEM as related to the gender gap. Social, economic, and more general historical data are used to develop a clear and powerful explanation of baccalaureate trends in biology and engineering. Specifically, historical accounts are offered for 1) a ten-year period in undergraduate biology in which the number of baccalaureates awarded to men decreased 44 percent, while the number of baccalaureates awarded to women decreased one percent; 2) the start of a twenty-year period in which the number of bachelor's degrees awarded in the biological sciences increased 150 percent---from 36,068 degrees in 1989, to 90,003 bachelor's degrees in 2011; and 3) a ten year period in undergraduate engineering where female graduation rates septupled---this ten-year time period is the only instance of meaningful and noteworthy growth for women in undergraduate engineering over the past half century. Findings from each history reveal a common narrative underlying baccalaureate trends. Implications for undergraduate STEM are discussed.

Kin selection and the evolution of plant reproductive traits.

PubMed

Bawa, Kamaljit S

2016-11-16

Competition among developing seeds and sibling rivalry within multiovulated ovaries can be deleterious for both the maternal parent and the siblings. Increased genetic relatedness of seeds within the ovary may foster kin selection and reduce the deleterious consequences of sibling competition. The pollen parent may also be selected for siring all progeny within a fruit. I propose a series of hypotheses to explain the evolution of a number of reproductive traits in angiosperms in the context of kin selection and sibling rivalry within the ovaries of angiosperms. I present evidence to show that a single-pollen parent, indeed, often sires seeds within multiovulated ovaries. Various types of pollen aggregations and transfer of such pollen masses to the stigmas of flowers by specialized pollinators make this increased genetic relatedness possible. An alternative mode to reduce sibling rivalry may be the reduction of ovule number to one, an evolutionary trend that has independently occurred many times in flowering plants. Finally, I build on previously established correlations to predict two sets of correlations among reproductive traits. In the first case, large showy flowers, transfer of pollen en masse by specialized pollinators, and multiovulated ovaries and multisided fruits seem to be correlated. In the second case, the previously established correlations among small and inconspicuous flowers, pollination by wind, water or generalist insects, flowers and fruits with few or single ovules and seeds, respectively, may also include monoecy or dioecy. Although correlations among many of these traits have been established in the past, I invoke kin selection and sibling competition to explain the evolution of correlated traits as two distinct evolutionary pathways in angiosperms. © 2016 The Authors.

Kin selection and the evolution of plant reproductive traits

PubMed Central

Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2016-01-01

Competition among developing seeds and sibling rivalry within multiovulated ovaries can be deleterious for both the maternal parent and the siblings. Increased genetic relatedness of seeds within the ovary may foster kin selection and reduce the deleterious consequences of sibling competition. The pollen parent may also be selected for siring all progeny within a fruit. I propose a series of hypotheses to explain the evolution of a number of reproductive traits in angiosperms in the context of kin selection and sibling rivalry within the ovaries of angiosperms. I present evidence to show that a single-pollen parent, indeed, often sires seeds within multiovulated ovaries. Various types of pollen aggregations and transfer of such pollen masses to the stigmas of flowers by specialized pollinators make this increased genetic relatedness possible. An alternative mode to reduce sibling rivalry may be the reduction of ovule number to one, an evolutionary trend that has independently occurred many times in flowering plants. Finally, I build on previously established correlations to predict two sets of correlations among reproductive traits. In the first case, large showy flowers, transfer of pollen en masse by specialized pollinators, and multiovulated ovaries and multisided fruits seem to be correlated. In the second case, the previously established correlations among small and inconspicuous flowers, pollination by wind, water or generalist insects, flowers and fruits with few or single ovules and seeds, respectively, may also include monoecy or dioecy. Although correlations among many of these traits have been established in the past, I invoke kin selection and sibling competition to explain the evolution of correlated traits as two distinct evolutionary pathways in angiosperms. PMID:27852800

Sorbent-based sampling methods for volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds in air. Part 2. Sorbent selection and other aspects of optimizing air monitoring methods.

PubMed

Woolfenden, Elizabeth

2010-04-16

Sorbent tubes/traps are widely used in combination with gas chromatographic (GC) analytical methods to monitor the vapour-phase fraction of organic compounds in air. Applications range from atmospheric research and ambient air monitoring (indoor and outdoor) to occupational hygiene (personal exposure assessment) and measuring chemical emission levels. Part 1 of this paper reviewed the main sorbent-based air sampling strategies including active (pumped) tube monitoring, diffusive (passive) sampling onto sorbent tubes/cartridges plus sorbent trapping/focusing of whole air samples that are either collected in containers (such as canisters or bags) or monitored online. Options for subsequent extraction and transfer to GC(MS) analysis were also summarised and the trend to thermal desorption (TD)-based methods and away from solvent extraction was explained. As a result of this trend, demand for TD-compatible sorbents (alternatives to traditional charcoal) is growing. Part 2 of this paper therefore continues with a summary of TD-compatible sorbents, their respective advantages and limitations and considerations for sorbent selection. Other analytical considerations for optimizing sorbent-based air monitoring methods are also discussed together with recent technical developments and sampling accessories which have extended the application range of sorbent trapping technology generally. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soykan, Candan U.; Sauer, John; Schuetz, Justin G.; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Dale, Kathy; Langham, Gary M.

2016-01-01

Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with estimates based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey, another large-scale monitoring program. Both of these efforts, conducted by citizen scientists, will be required going forward to ensure robust inference about population dynamics in the face of climate and land cover changes.

NAEP Trends: Main NAEP vs. Long-Term Trend

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beaton, Albert E.; Chromy, James R.

2010-01-01

The objectives of this research are to (a) compare the trend lines after some adjustments for level and scale only and determine if and how they differ; (b) describe the methodology of each assessment and identify similarities and differences; and (c) attempt to explain any observed differences based on comparable subsets or on special analysis.…

HRD Trends Worldwide: Shared Solutions To Compete in a Global Economy. Improving Human Performance Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Jack J.

This book, which is intended for individuals involved in developing, delivering, and supporting human resource development (HRD) programs, discusses worldwide HRD trends that were identified in a study of the HRD practices in 35 countries. Chapter 1 discusses the importance of the HRD trends identified and explains how they were identified.…

If we build it, will they come? Curation and use of the ESO telescope bibliography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grothkopf, Uta; Meakins, Silvia; Bordelon, Dominic

2015-12-01

The ESO Telescope Bibliography (telbib) is a database of refereed papers published by the ESO users community. It links data in the ESO Science Archive with the published literature, and vice versa. Developed and maintained by the ESO library, telbib also provides insights into the organization's research output and impact as measured through bibliometric studies. Curating telbib is a multi-step process that involves extensive tagging of the database records. Based on selected use cases, this talk will explain how the rich metadata provide parameters for reports and statistics in order to investigate the performance of ESO's facilities and to understand trends and developments in the publishing behaviour of the user community.

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991-2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis.

PubMed

McCartney, G; Bouttell, J; Craig, N; Craig, P; Graham, L; Lakha, F; Lewsey, J; McAdams, R; MacPherson, M; Minton, J; Parkinson, J; Robinson, M; Shipton, D; Taulbut, M; Walsh, D; Beeston, C

2016-03-01

To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in alcohol-related mortality during the 1990s. Future policy should ensure that alcohol affordability and availability, as well as socio-economic inequality, are reduced, in order to maintain downward trends in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Global trends in nasopharyngeal cancer mortality since 1970 and predictions for 2020: Focus on low-risk areas.

PubMed

Carioli, Greta; Negri, Eva; Kawakita, Daisuke; Garavello, Werner; La Vecchia, Carlo; Malvezzi, Matteo

2017-05-15

Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) mortality shows great disparity between endemic high risk areas, where non-keratinizing carcinoma (NKC) histology is prevalent, and non-endemic low risk regions, where the keratinizing squamous cell carcinoma (KSCC) type is more frequent. We used the World Health Organization database to calculate NPC mortality trends from 1970 to 2014 in several countries worldwide. For the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and Japan, we also predicted trends to 2020. In 2012, the highest age-standardized (world standard) rates were in Hong Kong (4.51/100,000 men and 1.15/100,000 women), followed by selected Eastern European countries. The lowest rates were in Northern Europe and Latin America. EU rates were 0.27/100,000 men and 0.09/100,000 women, US rates were 0.20/100,000 men and 0.08/100,000 women and Japanese rates were 0.16/100,000 men and 0.04/100,000 women. NPC mortality trends were favourable for several countries. The decline was -15% in men and -5% in women between 2002 and 2012 in the EU, -12% in men and -9% in women in the US and about -30% in both sexes in Hong Kong and Japan. The favourable patterns in Europe and the United States are predicted to continue. Changes in salted fish and preserved food consumption account for the fall in NKC. Smoking and alcohol prevalence disparities between sexes and geographic areas may explain the different rates and trends observed for KSCC and partially for NKC. Dietary patterns, as well as improvement in management of the disease, may partly account for the observed trends, too. © 2017 UICC.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

PubMed

Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G; Ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

Obesity explains gender differences in the association between education level and metabolic syndrome in South Korea: the results from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2010.

PubMed

Ko, Ki Dong; Cho, BeLong; Lee, Won Chul; Lee, Hae Won; Lee, Hyun Ki; Oh, Bum Jo

2015-03-01

This study aimed to examine the association of educational level with metabolic syndrome (MS) and its risk factors by gender in South Korea. A total of 6178 participants aged 20 years or older from The Fifth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were included in this study. A generalized linear model and adjusted proportion were used to identify educational disparities in MS, its components, and its risk factors (smoking, high-risk alcohol consumption, obesity, and stress). In women, a clearly inverse association between education level and MS were observed with significant trend, and the decreasing trends of all risk factors across education quartiles were in line with the inverse association. However, the association between education level and MS was not observed with a significant trend among men. An opposite trend of risk factors across education levels was shown in men, with an increasing trend for obesity and decreasing trends for smoking and high-risk alcohol consumption. These findings demonstrate that obesity can explain gender differences in the association between education level and MS in South Korea. © 2013 APJPH.

Baryon Content in a Sample of 91 Galaxy Clusters Selected by the South Pole Telescope at 0.2 < z < 1.25

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiu, I.; et al.

2017-11-02

We estimate total mass (more » $$M_{500}$$), intracluster medium (ICM) mass ($$M_{\\mathrm{ICM}}$$) and stellar mass ($$M_{\\star}$$) in a Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) selected sample of 91 galaxy clusters with masses $$M_{500}\\gtrsim2.5\\times10^{14}M_{\\odot}$$ and redshift $0.2 < z < 1.25$ from the 2500 deg$^2$ South Pole Telescope SPT-SZ survey. The total masses $$M_{500}$$ are estimated from the SZE observable, the ICM masses $$M_{\\mathrm{ICM}}$$ are obtained from the analysis of $Chandra$ X-ray observations, and the stellar masses $$M_{\\star}$$ are derived by fitting spectral energy distribution templates to Dark Energy Survey (DES) $griz$ optical photometry and $WISE$ or $Spitzer$ near-infrared photometry. We study trends in the stellar mass, the ICM mass, the total baryonic mass and the cold baryonic fraction with cluster mass and redshift. We find significant departures from self-similarity in the mass scaling for all quantities, while the redshift trends are all statistically consistent with zero, indicating that the baryon content of clusters at fixed mass has changed remarkably little over the past $$\\approx9$$ Gyr. We compare our results to the mean baryon fraction (and the stellar mass fraction) in the field, finding that these values lie above (below) those in cluster virial regions in all but the most massive clusters at low redshift. Using a simple model of the matter assembly of clusters from infalling groups with lower masses and from infalling material from the low density environment or field surrounding the parent halos, we show that the measured mass trends without strong redshift trends in the stellar mass scaling relation could be explained by a mass and redshift dependent fractional contribution from field material. Similar analyses of the ICM and baryon mass scaling relations provide evidence for the so-called "missing baryons" outside cluster virial regions.« less

Baryon Content in a Sample of 91 Galaxy Clusters Selected by the South Pole Telescope at 0.2 < z < 1.25

DOE PAGES

Chiu, I.; Mohr, J. J.; McDonald, M.; ...

2018-05-16

Here, we estimate total mass (more » $$M_{500}$$), intracluster medium (ICM) mass ($$M_{\\mathrm{ICM}}$$) and stellar mass ($$M_{\\star}$$) in a Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) selected sample of 91 galaxy clusters with masses $$M_{500}\\gtrsim2.5\\times10^{14}M_{\\odot}$$ and redshift $0.2 < z < 1.25$ from the 2500 deg$^2$ South Pole Telescope SPT-SZ survey. The total masses $$M_{500}$$ are estimated from the SZE observable, the ICM masses $$M_{\\mathrm{ICM}}$$ are obtained from the analysis of $Chandra$ X-ray observations, and the stellar masses $$M_{\\star}$$ are derived by fitting spectral energy distribution templates to Dark Energy Survey (DES) $griz$ optical photometry and $WISE$ or $Spitzer$ near-infrared photometry. We study trends in the stellar mass, the ICM mass, the total baryonic mass and the cold baryonic fraction with cluster mass and redshift. We find significant departures from self-similarity in the mass scaling for all quantities, while the redshift trends are all statistically consistent with zero, indicating that the baryon content of clusters at fixed mass has changed remarkably little over the past $$\\approx9$$ Gyr. We compare our results to the mean baryon fraction (and the stellar mass fraction) in the field, finding that these values lie above (below) those in cluster virial regions in all but the most massive clusters at low redshift. Using a simple model of the matter assembly of clusters from infalling groups with lower masses and from infalling material from the low density environment or field surrounding the parent halos, we show that the measured mass trends without strong redshift trends in the stellar mass scaling relation could be explained by a mass and redshift dependent fractional contribution from field material. Similar analyses of the ICM and baryon mass scaling relations provide evidence for the so-called "missing baryons" outside cluster virial regions.« less

Baryon Content in a Sample of 91 Galaxy Clusters Selected by the South Pole Telescope at 0.2 < z < 1.25

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiu, I.; Mohr, J. J.; McDonald, M.

Here, we estimate total mass (more » $$M_{500}$$), intracluster medium (ICM) mass ($$M_{\\mathrm{ICM}}$$) and stellar mass ($$M_{\\star}$$) in a Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) selected sample of 91 galaxy clusters with masses $$M_{500}\\gtrsim2.5\\times10^{14}M_{\\odot}$$ and redshift $0.2 < z < 1.25$ from the 2500 deg$^2$ South Pole Telescope SPT-SZ survey. The total masses $$M_{500}$$ are estimated from the SZE observable, the ICM masses $$M_{\\mathrm{ICM}}$$ are obtained from the analysis of $Chandra$ X-ray observations, and the stellar masses $$M_{\\star}$$ are derived by fitting spectral energy distribution templates to Dark Energy Survey (DES) $griz$ optical photometry and $WISE$ or $Spitzer$ near-infrared photometry. We study trends in the stellar mass, the ICM mass, the total baryonic mass and the cold baryonic fraction with cluster mass and redshift. We find significant departures from self-similarity in the mass scaling for all quantities, while the redshift trends are all statistically consistent with zero, indicating that the baryon content of clusters at fixed mass has changed remarkably little over the past $$\\approx9$$ Gyr. We compare our results to the mean baryon fraction (and the stellar mass fraction) in the field, finding that these values lie above (below) those in cluster virial regions in all but the most massive clusters at low redshift. Using a simple model of the matter assembly of clusters from infalling groups with lower masses and from infalling material from the low density environment or field surrounding the parent halos, we show that the measured mass trends without strong redshift trends in the stellar mass scaling relation could be explained by a mass and redshift dependent fractional contribution from field material. Similar analyses of the ICM and baryon mass scaling relations provide evidence for the so-called "missing baryons" outside cluster virial regions.« less

Baryon Content in a Sample of 91 Galaxy Clusters Selected by the South Pole Telescope at 0.2 < z < 1.25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, I.; Mohr, J. J.; McDonald, M.; Bocquet, S.; Desai, S.; Klein, M.; Israel, H.; Ashby, M. L. N.; Stanford, A.; Benson, B. A.; Brodwin, M.; Abbott, T. M. C.; Abdalla, F. B.; Allam, S.; Annis, J.; Bayliss, M.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bertin, E.; Bleem, L.; Brooks, D.; Buckley-Geer, E.; Bulbul, E.; Capasso, R.; Carlstrom, J. E.; Rosell, A. Carnero; Carretero, J.; Castander, F. J.; Cunha, C. E.; D'Andrea, C. B.; da Costa, L. N.; Davis, C.; Diehl, H. T.; Dietrich, J. P.; Doel, P.; Drlica-Wagner, A.; Eifler, T. F.; Evrard, A. E.; Flaugher, B.; García-Bellido, J.; Garmire, G.; Gaztanaga, E.; Gerdes, D. W.; Gonzalez, A.; Gruen, D.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gschwend, J.; Gupta, N.; Gutierrez, G.; Hlavacek-L, J.; Honscheid, K.; James, D. J.; Jeltema, T.; Kraft, R.; Krause, E.; Kuehn, K.; Kuhlmann, S.; Kuropatkin, N.; Lahav, O.; Lima, M.; Maia, M. A. G.; Marshall, J. L.; Melchior, P.; Menanteau, F.; Miquel, R.; Murray, S.; Nord, B.; Ogando, R. L. C.; Plazas, A. A.; Rapetti, D.; Reichardt, C. L.; Romer, A. K.; Roodman, A.; Sanchez, E.; Saro, A.; Scarpine, V.; Schindler, R.; Schubnell, M.; Sharon, K.; Smith, R. C.; Smith, M.; Soares-Santos, M.; Sobreira, F.; Stalder, B.; Stern, C.; Strazzullo, V.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Vikram, V.; Walker, A. R.; Weller, J.; Zhang, Y.

2018-05-01

We estimate total mass (M500), intracluster medium (ICM) mass (MICM) and stellar mass (M⋆) in a Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) selected sample of 91 galaxy clusters with masses M500 ≳ 2.5 × 1014M⊙ and redshift 0.2 < z < 1.25 from the 2500 ° ^2 South Pole Telescope SPT-SZ survey. The total masses M500 are estimated from the SZE observable, the ICM masses MICM are obtained from the analysis of Chandra X-ray observations, and the stellar masses M⋆ are derived by fitting spectral energy distribution templates to Dark Energy Survey (DES) griz optical photometry and WISE or Spitzer near-infrared photometry. We study trends in the stellar mass, the ICM mass, the total baryonic mass and the cold baryonic fraction with cluster halo mass and redshift. We find significant departures from self-similarity in the mass scaling for all quantities, while the redshift trends are all statistically consistent with zero, indicating that the baryon content of clusters at fixed mass has changed remarkably little over the past ≈9 Gyr. We compare our results to the mean baryon fraction (and the stellar mass fraction) in the field, finding that these values lie above (below) those in cluster virial regions in all but the most massive clusters at low redshift. Using a simple model of the matter assembly of clusters from infalling groups with lower masses and from infalling material from the low density environment or field surrounding the parent halos, we show that the measured mass trends without strong redshift trends in the stellar mass scaling relation could be explained by a mass and redshift dependent fractional contribution from field material. Similar analyses of the ICM and baryon mass scaling relations provide evidence for the so-called "missing baryons" outside cluster virial regions.

Large decline in injecting drug use in Amsterdam, 1986-1998: explanatory mechanisms and determinants of injecting transitions.

PubMed

van Ameijden, E J; Coutinho, R A

2001-05-01

To study community wide trends in injecting prevalence and trends in injecting transitions, and determinants. Open cohort study with follow up every four months (Amsterdam Cohort Study). Generalised estimating equations were used for statistical analysis. Amsterdam has adopted a harm reduction approach as drug policy. 996 drug users who were recruited from 1986 to 1998, mainly at methadone programmes, who paid 13620 cohort visits. The prevalence of injecting decreased exponentially (66% to 36% in four to six monthly periods). Selective mortality and migration could maximally explain 33% of this decline. Instead, injecting initiation linearly decreased (4.1% to 0.7% per visit), cessation exponentially increased (10.0% to 17.1%), and relapse linearly decreased (21.3% to 11.8%). Non-injecting cocaine use (mainly pre-cooked, comparable to crack) and heroin use strongly increased. Trends were not attributable to changes in the study sample. Harm reduction, including large scale needle exchange programmes, does not lead to an increase in injecting drug use. The injecting decline seems mainly attributable to ecological factors (for example, drug culture and market). Prevention of injecting is possible and peer-based interventions may be effective. The consequences of the recent upsurge in crack use requires further study.

Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years.

PubMed

Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang; Cheng, Lei; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Yue; Liu, Ronggao; Mao, Jiafu; Myneni, Ranga B; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Ben; Shi, Xiaoying; Xiao, Zhiqiang; Zeng, Ning; Zeng, ZhenZhong; Wang, Yingping

2015-04-01

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. We use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41% of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAIGS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070 yr(-1), ranging from 0.0035 yr(-1) to 0.0127 yr(-1)), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAIGS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAIGS (P < 0.05), and marginally significantly (P = 0.07) correlated with the residual of LAIGS trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. This result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sources and preparation of data for assessing trends in concentrations of pesticides in streams of the United States, 1992–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Jeffrey D.; Eberle, Michael; Nakagaki, Naomi

2011-01-01

This report updates a previously published water-quality dataset of 44 commonly used pesticides and 8 pesticide degradates suitable for a national assessment of trends in pesticide concentrations in streams of the United States. Water-quality samples collected from January 1992 through September 2010 at stream-water sites of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program and the National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) were compiled, reviewed, selected, and prepared for trend analysis. The principal steps in data review for trend analysis were to (1) identify analytical schedule, (2) verify sample-level coding, (3) exclude inappropriate samples or results, (4) review pesticide detections per sample, (5) review high pesticide concentrations, and (6) review the spatial and temporal extent of NAWQA pesticide data and selection of analytical methods for trend analysis. The principal steps in data preparation for trend analysis were to (1) select stream-water sites for trend analysis, (2) round concentrations to a consistent level of precision for the concentration range, (3) identify routine reporting levels used to report nondetections unaffected by matrix interference, (4) reassign the concentration value for routine nondetections to the maximum value of the long-term method detection level (maxLT-MDL), (5) adjust concentrations to compensate for temporal changes in bias of recovery of the gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GCMS) analytical method, and (6) identify samples considered inappropriate for trend analysis. Samples analyzed at the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) by the GCMS analytical method were the most extensive in time and space and, consequently, were selected for trend analysis. Stream-water sites with 3 or more water years of data with six or more samples per year were selected for pesticide trend analysis. The selection criteria described in the report produced a dataset of 21,988 pesticide samples at 212 stream-water sites. Only 21,144 pesticide samples, however, are considered appropriate for trend analysis.

Modification of the Selectivity Properties of Tubular Ceramic Membranes after Alkaline Treatment

PubMed Central

Dutournié, Patrick; Limousy, Lionel; Anquetil, Jérôme

2017-01-01

This work focuses on the selectivity modification of ceramic membranes after a mild alkaline treatment. Filtration of pure salt-water solutions was carried out with commercial titania membranes before and after the treatment. After treatment, the rejection of NaF significantly decreased, while the rejection of NaCl and NaBr increased. Additionally, NaI and Na2SO4 remained close to zero. Pore size and electrical charge being almost unchanged, only significant modifications in the dielectric effects can explain this modification of selectivity. Therefore, the surface chemistry and the interaction (nature and magnitude) with the solvent and with the species present in the solution appear to be modified by the alkaline treatment. This trend is also illustrated by discussing the electric and the dielectric properties that were numerically identified before and after treatment. The alkaline treatment significantly decreased the apparent dielectric constant of NaCl-water solution in the pore, highlighting the rejection of sodium chloride. Contrariwise, the modification of the surface chemistry increased the apparent dielectric constant of NaF-water solution by promoting fluoride transmission. PMID:29160802

Modification of the Selectivity Properties of Tubular Ceramic Membranes after Alkaline Treatment.

PubMed

Dutournié, Patrick; Limousy, Lionel; Anquetil, Jérôme; Déon, Sébastien

2017-11-21

This work focuses on the selectivity modification of ceramic membranes after a mild alkaline treatment. Filtration of pure salt-water solutions was carried out with commercial titania membranes before and after the treatment. After treatment, the rejection of NaF significantly decreased, while the rejection of NaCl and NaBr increased. Additionally, NaI and Na₂SO₄ remained close to zero. Pore size and electrical charge being almost unchanged, only significant modifications in the dielectric effects can explain this modification of selectivity. Therefore, the surface chemistry and the interaction (nature and magnitude) with the solvent and with the species present in the solution appear to be modified by the alkaline treatment. This trend is also illustrated by discussing the electric and the dielectric properties that were numerically identified before and after treatment. The alkaline treatment significantly decreased the apparent dielectric constant of NaCl-water solution in the pore, highlighting the rejection of sodium chloride. Contrariwise, the modification of the surface chemistry increased the apparent dielectric constant of NaF-water solution by promoting fluoride transmission.

Joint variability of global runoff and global sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2008-01-01

Global land surface runoff and sea surface temperatures (SST) are analyzed to identify the primary modes of variability of these hydroclimatic data for the period 1905-2002. A monthly water-balance model first is used with global monthly temperature and precipitation data to compute time series of annual gridded runoff for the analysis period. The annual runoff time series data are combined with gridded annual sea surface temperature data, and the combined dataset is subjected to a principal components analysis (PCA) to identify the primary modes of variability. The first three components from the PCA explain 29% of the total variability in the combined runoff/SST dataset. The first component explains 15% of the total variance and primarily represents long-term trends in the data. The long-term trends in SSTs are evident as warming in all of the oceans. The associated long-term trends in runoff suggest increasing flows for parts of North America, South America, Eurasia, and Australia; decreasing runoff is most notable in western Africa. The second principal component explains 9% of the total variance and reflects variability of the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its associated influence on global annual runoff patterns. The third component explains 5% of the total variance and indicates a response of global annual runoff to variability in North Aflantic SSTs. The association between runoff and North Atlantic SSTs may explain an apparent steplike change in runoff that occurred around 1970 for a number of continental regions.

Changes in Examination Performance in English Secondary Schools over the Course of a Decade: Searching for Patterns and Trends over Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mangan, Jean; Pugh, Geoff; Gray, John

2005-01-01

The article explores changes in the examination performance of a random sample of 500 English secondary schools between 1992 and 2001. Using econometric methods, it concludes that: there is an overall deterministic trend in school performance but it is not stable, making prediction accuracy poor; the aggregate trend does not explain improvement…

Trends in the Mincerian Rates of Return to Education in Urban China: 1989-2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiaohao, Ding; Suhong, Yang; Ha, Wei

2013-01-01

This study examines the trends in the Mincerian rates of return (MRRs) to education in urban China between 1989 and 2009 using two sources of data: the China Urban Household Survey and the China Health and Nutrition Survey, and attempts to explain the underlying causes of the trends. The authors find that while the rates of return to education had…

Role of post-field raw data processing: a multi-site and full factorial uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabbatini, Simone; Fratini, Gerardo; Arriga, Nicola; Papale, Dario

2013-04-01

Uncertainties in the Eddy Covariance flux measurements are a fundamental issue not yet completely solved. The complexity of the method, involving many, not standardized processing steps is one among the source of such uncertainty. The goal of our work is to quantify uncertainties deriving from post-field raw data processing, needed to calculate fluxes from collected turbulence measurements. The methodology we propose is a full-factorial design, performed using as factors a number of selected processing steps. We applied this approach to 15 European flux stations representative of different ecosystems (forests, croplands and grasslands), climates (Mediterranean, Nordic, arid and humid) and instrumental setups (e.g. open vs. closed path systems). Then we processed one year of raw data from each of the selected stations so as to cover all possible combinations of the available options (levels) relative to all the critical processing steps, i.e: angle of attack correction; coordinate rotation; trend removal; time lag compensation; low- and high- frequency spectral correction; correction for air density fluctuations; and length of the flux averaging interval. The software we used is EddyPro™. At last we calculated the cumulative NEE (response) for each process, and performed an analysis of variance of the factorial design. In addition to the global uncertainty, from this statistical approach we obtain information about the factors that most contribute to the uncertainties, and also the most relevant two-level interactions between factors. Here we present partial results from the first sites analysed. For the beech forest of Sorø, Denmark (Gill R2 anemometer and closed path GA, tube length = 50 m) the factor that most contributes to the variance in 2007 (40.4 %) is the trend removal, with an uncertainty of 7.5%. It is followed by the angle of attack (16.1 % of the total variability, uncertainty 3.5 %) and the interaction between trend removal and time lag compensation (11.42 % of variance explained). The overall uncertainty is about 8.7 % (cumulative NEE = -440.22 ± 38.36 g C m-2 year-1). The Oak forest of Roccarespampani, Italy (Metek anemometer and closed path GA, tube length = 22 m) was a sink in 2006. The coordinate rotation has the main influence on the variance (46.14 %, against an uncertainty of 4 %), then comes the average interval with 17.34 % (unc. 2 %), and their interaction (9.70 % of variance explained). The total uncertainty is 4.8 % (NEE = -515.19 ± 24.7 g C m-2 year-1). The mixed forest of Norunda, Sweden, in the year 2008 is a source of CO2 (Metek anemometer and closed path GA, tube length = 8 m). For this site we found a strong influence of the coordinate rotation (74.02 %, with an uncertainty of 32.5 %), while the trend removal explains the 17.41 % of the variance (unc. 15 %), against a total uncertainty of about 26.8 % (155.04 ± 41.50 g C m-2 year-1).

Trends and college-level characteristics associated with the non-medical use of prescription drugs among US college students from 1993 to 2001

PubMed Central

McCabe, Sean Esteban; West, Brady T.; Wechsler, Henry

2007-01-01

Aims The present study examines the prevalence trends and college-level characteristics associated with the non-medical use of prescription drugs (i.e. amphetamines, opioids, sedatives, tranquilizers) and illicit drug use among US college students between 1993 and 2001. Design Data were collected from self-administered mail surveys, sent to independent cross-sectional samples of college students from a nationally representative sample of 119 colleges in 4 years between 1993 and 2001. Setting Nationally representative 4-year US colleges and universities in 1993, 1997, 1999 and 2001. Participants Representative samples of 15 282, 14 428, 13 953 and 10 904 randomly selected college students at these colleges in 1993, 1997, 1999 and 2001, respectively. Findings The results indicate that life-time and 12-month prevalence rates of non-medical use of prescription drugs (NMPD) increased between 1993 and 2001. Specific college-level characteristics were found to be correlated positively (marijuana use) and negatively (historically black college status and commuter status) with NMPD, consistently across the four cross-sectional samples. Significant between-college variation in terms of trajectories in the prevalence of NMPD over time was found in hierarchical linear models, and selected college-level characteristics were not found to explain all of the variation in the trajectories, suggesting the need for further investigation of what determines between-college variance in the prevalence trends. Conclusions The findings of the present study suggest that continued monitoring of NMPD and illicit drug use among college students is needed and collegiate substance prevention programs should include efforts to reduce these drug use behaviors. PMID:17298654

New Trends in Facility Asset Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Matt

2000-01-01

Explains new, positive trends in facility asset management that encompasses greater acceptance and involvement of facility managers in the financial planning process, greater awareness of the need for maintenance, and facility administrators taking a greater role with business officers. The new climate for alternative renewal financing proposals…

Comparison of statistical tests for association between rare variants and binary traits.

PubMed

Bacanu, Silviu-Alin; Nelson, Matthew R; Whittaker, John C

2012-01-01

Genome-wide association studies have found thousands of common genetic variants associated with a wide variety of diseases and other complex traits. However, a large portion of the predicted genetic contribution to many traits remains unknown. One plausible explanation is that some of the missing variation is due to the effects of rare variants. Nonetheless, the statistical analysis of rare variants is challenging. A commonly used method is to contrast, within the same region (gene), the frequency of minor alleles at rare variants between cases and controls. However, this strategy is most useful under the assumption that the tested variants have similar effects. We previously proposed a method that can accommodate heterogeneous effects in the analysis of quantitative traits. Here we extend this method to include binary traits that can accommodate covariates. We use simulations for a variety of causal and covariate impact scenarios to compare the performance of the proposed method to standard logistic regression, C-alpha, SKAT, and EREC. We found that i) logistic regression methods perform well when the heterogeneity of the effects is not extreme and ii) SKAT and EREC have good performance under all tested scenarios but they can be computationally intensive. Consequently, it would be more computationally desirable to use a two-step strategy by (i) selecting promising genes by faster methods and ii) analyzing selected genes using SKAT/EREC. To select promising genes one can use (1) regression methods when effect heterogeneity is assumed to be low and the covariates explain a non-negligible part of trait variability, (2) C-alpha when heterogeneity is assumed to be large and covariates explain a small fraction of trait's variability and (3) the proposed trend and heterogeneity test when the heterogeneity is assumed to be non-trivial and the covariates explain a large fraction of trait variability.

Trends in adolescent mental health during economic upturns and downturns: a multilevel analysis of Swedish data 1988-2008

PubMed Central

Kim, Yunhwan; Hagquist, Curt

2018-01-01

Background A long-term trend of increasing mental health problems among adolescents in many Western countries indicates a great need to investigate if and how societal changes have contributed to the reported increase. Using seven waves of repeated cross-sectional data collected between 1988 and 2008 in Sweden, the current study examined if economic factors at the societal level (municipality unemployment rate) and at the individual level (worry about family finances), and their interaction could explain a secular trend in mental health problems. Methods Participants were 17 533 students of age 15–16 years (49.3% girls), from 14 municipalities in a county of Sweden. Data on adolescents’ mental health (psychosomatic problems) and worry about family finances were obtained using a self-report questionnaire. A series of multilevel regression analyses were conducted in order to explain the trends in adolescents’ mental health. Results The results indicated that the individual-level predictor (worry about family finances) significantly explained the increasing rates of adolescents’ psychosomatic problems. This was particularly the case during the mid-1990s, which was characterised by a severe recession in Sweden with high unemployment rates. For example, after accounting for adolescents’ worry, a significant increase in psychosomatic symptoms between 1988 and 1998 among girls (b=0.112, P<0.05) disappeared (b=0.018, P>0.05) and a non-significant decrease between 1988 and 1995 among boys (b=−0.017, P>0.05) became significant (b=−0.142, P<0.05). Neither municipality unemployment rate nor its interaction with adolescents’ worry explained psychosomatic problems. Conclusions The findings demonstrate the effects of adolescents’ worry about family finances on a secular trend in mental health problems during an economically bleak period of time. The study highlights the need for repeated measurements including a large number of time points over a long time period in order to analyse time-specific putative explanatory factors for trends in adolescent mental health problems. PMID:29203524

Trends in pesticide concentrations and use for major rivers of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Gilliom, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Pesticides strongly dominated by agricultural use (cyanazine, alachlor, atrazine and its degradate deethylatrazine, metolachlor, and carbofuran) had widespread agreement between concentration trends and use trends. Pesticides with substantial use in both agricultural and nonagricultural applications (simazine, chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, and carbaryl) had concentration trends that were mostly explained by a combination of agricultural-use trends, regulatory changes, and urban use changes inferred from concentration trends in urban streams. When there were differences, concentration trends usually were greater than use trends (increased more or decreased less). These differences may occur because of such factors as unaccounted pesticide uses, delayed transport to the river through groundwater, greater uncertainty in the use data, or unquantified land use and management practice changes.

Distant drivers or local signals: where do mercury trends in western Arctic belugas originate?

PubMed

Loseto, L L; Stern, G A; Macdonald, R W

2015-03-15

Temporal trends of contaminants are monitored in Arctic higher trophic level species to inform us on the fate, transport and risk of contaminants as well as advise on global emissions. However, monitoring mercury (Hg) trends in species such as belugas challenge us, as their tissue concentrations reflect complex interactions among Hg deposition and methylation, whale physiology, dietary exposure and foraging patterns. The Beaufort Sea beluga population showed significant increases in Hg during the 1990 s; since that time an additional 10 years of data have been collected. During this time of data collection, changes in the Arctic have affected many processes that underlie the Hg cycle. Here, we examine Hg in beluga tissues and investigate factors that could contribute to the observed trends after removing the effect of age and size on Hg concentrations and dietary factors. Finally, we examine available indicators of climate variability (Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sea-ice minimum (SIM) concentration) to evaluate their potential to explain beluga Hg trends. Results reveal a decline in Hg concentrations from 2002 to 2012 in the liver of older whales and the muscle of large whales. The temporal increases in Hg in the 1990 s followed by recent declines do not follow trends in Hg emission, and are not easily explained by diet markers highlighting the complexity of feeding, food web dynamics and Hg uptake. Among the regional-scale climate variables the PDO exhibited the most significant relationship with beluga Hg at an eight year lag time. This distant signal points us to consider beluga winter feeding areas. Given that changes in climate will impact ecosystems; it is plausible that these climate variables are important in explaining beluga Hg trends. Such relationships require further investigation of the multiple connections between climate variables and beluga Hg. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is there any trend change in wind speed in the mid- 1990s in the stratosphere?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krizan, Peter

2017-04-01

This poster tries to explain the reasons for trend change of the stratospheric wind speed in the mid-1990s. In the areas of negative (positive) wind speed trend before 1995 the positive (negative) trend is observed after this point Similar change is observed also for total ozone where we observe negative trend before 1995 and positive one after. We use MERRA reanalysis monthly means of the geopotential height from January to March. We suppose the position and strength of polar vortex and Aleutian high plays here very important role.

Why the stratospheric zonal and meridional wind changes trend in the mid -1990s?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krizan, P.

2016-12-01

This poster tries to explain the reasons for trend change of the stratospheric zonal and meridional wind in the mid-1990s. In the areas of negative (positive) wind speed trend before 1995 the positive (negative) trend is observed after this point Similar change is observed also for total ozone where we observe negative trend before 1995 and positive one after. We use MERRA reanalysis data especially monthly mean of geopotential from January to March. We suppose the position and strength of polar vortex and Aleutian high plays here very important role..

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland, 1991-2011 (I): the role of incomes, effects of socio-economic and political adversity and demographic change.

PubMed

McCartney, G; Bouttell, J; Craig, N; Craig, P; Graham, L; Lakha, F; Lewsey, J; McAdams, R; MacPherson, M; Minton, J; Parkinson, J; Robinson, M; Shipton, D; Taulbut, M; Walsh, D; Beeston, C

2016-03-01

This paper tests the extent to which differing trends in income, demographic change and the consequences of an earlier period of social, economic and political change might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality between 1991 and 2011 in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Comparative time trend analyses and arithmetic modelling. Three approaches were utilised to compare Scotland with E&W: 1. We modelled the impact of changes in income on alcohol-related deaths between 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 by applying plausible assumptions of the effect size through an arithmetic model. 2. We used contour plots, graphical exploration of age-period-cohort interactions and calculation of Intrinsic Estimator coefficients to investigate the effect of earlier exposure to social, economic and political adversity on alcohol-related mortality. 3. We recalculated the trends in alcohol-related deaths using the white population only to make a crude approximation of the maximal impact of changes in ethnic diversity. Real incomes increased during the 1990s but declined from around 2004 in the poorest 30% of the population of Great Britain. The decline in incomes for the poorest decile, the proportion of the population in the most deprived decile, and the inequality in alcohol-related deaths, were all greater in Scotland than in E&W. The model predicted less of the observed rise in Scotland (18% of the rise in men and 29% of the rise in women) than that in E&W (where 60% and 68% of the rise in men and women respectively was explained). One-third of the decline observed in alcohol-related mortality in Scottish men between 2001 and 2011 was predicted by the model, and the model was broadly consistent with the observed trends in E&W and amongst women in Scotland. An age-period interaction in alcohol-related mortality was evident for men and women during the 1990s and 2000s who were aged 40-70 years and who experienced rapidly increasing alcohol-related mortality rates. Ethnicity is unlikely to be important in explaining the trends or differences between Scotland and E&W. The decline in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland since the early 2000s and the differing trend to E&W were partly described by a model predicting the impact of declining incomes. Lagged effects from historical social, economic and political change remain plausible from the available data. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Crop weather models of corn and soybeans for Agrophysical Units (APU's) in Iowa using monthly meteorological predictors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leduc, S. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Models based on multiple regression were developed to estimate corn and soybean yield from weather data for agrophysical units (APU) in Iowa. The predictor variables are derived from monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation data at meteorological stations in the cooperative network. The models are similar in form to the previous models developed for crop reporting districts (CRD). The trends and derived variables were the same and the approach to select the significant predictors was similar to that used in developing the CRD models. The APU's were selected to be more homogeneous with respect crop to production than the CRDs. The APU models are quite similar to the CRD models, similar explained variation and number of predictor variables. The APU models are to be independently evaluated and compared to the previously evaluated CRD models. That comparison should indicate the preferred model area for this application, i.e., APU or CRD.

Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2012-04-01

We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

Predator-driven brain size evolution in natural populations of Trinidadian killifish (Rivulus hartii)

PubMed Central

Walsh, Matthew R.; Broyles, Whitnee; Beston, Shannon M.; Munch, Stephan B.

2016-01-01

Vertebrates exhibit extensive variation in relative brain size. It has long been assumed that this variation is the product of ecologically driven natural selection. Yet, despite more than 100 years of research, the ecological conditions that select for changes in brain size are unclear. Recent laboratory selection experiments showed that selection for larger brains is associated with increased survival in risky environments. Such results lead to the prediction that increased predation should favour increased brain size. Work on natural populations, however, foreshadows the opposite trajectory of evolution; increased predation favours increased boldness, slower learning, and may thereby select for a smaller brain. We tested the influence of predator-induced mortality on brain size evolution by quantifying brain size variation in a Trinidadian killifish, Rivulus hartii, from communities that differ in predation intensity. We observed strong genetic differences in male (but not female) brain size between fish communities; second generation laboratory-reared males from sites with predators exhibited smaller brains than Rivulus from sites in which they are the only fish present. Such trends oppose the results of recent laboratory selection experiments and are not explained by trade-offs with other components of fitness. Our results suggest that increased male brain size is favoured in less risky environments because of the fitness benefits associated with faster rates of learning and problem-solving behaviour. PMID:27412278

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Schut, Antonius G. T.; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.; ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity. PMID:26466347

Derivation of Tropospheric Ozone Climatology and Trends from TOMS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newchurch, Michael J.; McPeters, Rich; Logan, Jennifer; Kim, Jae-Hwan

2002-01-01

This research addresses the following three objectives: (1) Derive tropospheric ozone columns from the TOMS instruments by computing the difference between total-ozone columns over cloudy areas and over clear areas in the tropics; (2) Compute secular trends in Nimbus-7 derived tropospheric Ozone column amounts and associated potential trends in the decadal-scale tropical cloud climatology; (3) Explain the occurrence of anomalously high ozone retrievals over high ice clouds.

THE AMERICAN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATE: TRENDS AND LEVELS.

PubMed

Heckman, James J; Lafontaine, Paul A

2010-05-01

This paper applies a unified methodology to multiple data sets to estimate both the levels and trends in U.S. high school graduation rates. We establish that (a) the true rate is substantially lower than widely used measures; (b) it peaked in the early 1970s; (c) majority/minority differentials are substantial and have not converged for 35 years; (d) lower post-1970 rates are not solely due to increasing immigrant and minority populations; (e) our findings explain part of the slowdown in college attendance and rising college wage premiums; and (f) widening graduation differentials by gender help explain increasing male-female college attendance gaps.

THE AMERICAN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATE: TRENDS AND LEVELS*

PubMed Central

Heckman, James J.; LaFontaine, Paul A.

2009-01-01

This paper applies a unified methodology to multiple data sets to estimate both the levels and trends in U.S. high school graduation rates. We establish that (a) the true rate is substantially lower than widely used measures; (b) it peaked in the early 1970s; (c) majority/minority differentials are substantial and have not converged for 35 years; (d) lower post-1970 rates are not solely due to increasing immigrant and minority populations; (e) our findings explain part of the slowdown in college attendance and rising college wage premiums; and (f) widening graduation differentials by gender help explain increasing male-female college attendance gaps. PMID:20625528

Tectonics and seismicity of the southern Washington Cascade range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, W.D.; Johnson, S.Y.; Qamar, A.I.; Weaver, C.S.; Williams, J.M.

1996-01-01

Geophysical, geological, and seismicity data are combined to develop a transpressional strain model for the southern Washington Cascades region. We use this model to explain oblique fold and fault systems, transverse faults, and a linear seismic zone just west of Mt. Rainier known as the western Rainier zone. We also attempt to explain a concentration of earthquakes that connects the northwest-trending Mount St. Helens seismic zone to the north-trending western Rainier zone. Our tectonic model illustrates the pervasive effects of accretionary processes, combined with subsequent transpressive forces generated by oblique subduction, on Eocene to present crustal processes, such as seismicity and volcanism.

Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years

DOE PAGES

Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang; ...

2014-11-04

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. Here, we use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41%more » of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAI GS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070yr -1, ranging from 0.0035yr -1 to 0.0127yr -1), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAI GS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAI GS (P<0.05), and marginally significantly (P=0.07) correlated with the residual of LAI(GS) trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. In conclusion, this result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.« less

Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. Here, we use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41%more » of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAI GS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070yr -1, ranging from 0.0035yr -1 to 0.0127yr -1), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAI GS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAI GS (P<0.05), and marginally significantly (P=0.07) correlated with the residual of LAI(GS) trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. In conclusion, this result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.« less

Outcomes of Global Environmentalism: Longitudinal and Cross-National Trends in Chemical Fertilizer and Pesticide Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shorette, Kristen

2012-01-01

Previous research identifies changing world cultural norms as the impetus for a worldwide trend promoting environmentalism. However, the extent to which countries comply with the norms promoted and codified by environmental organizations and treaties has been less rigorously tested. Suspected noncompliance is generally explained as "decoupling"…

The Use of Multiple Regression and Trend Analysis to Understand Enrollment Fluctuations. AIR Forum 1979 Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, S. Duke; Greenberg, Barry

The development of a predictive equation capable of explaining a significant percentage of enrollment variability at Florida International University is described. A model utilizing trend analysis and a multiple regression approach to enrollment forecasting was adapted to investigate enrollment dynamics at the university. Four independent…

Teaching the Evolution of the Mind: Current Findings, Trends, and Controversies in Evolutionary Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liddle, James R.; Shackelford, Todd K.

2011-01-01

As the burgeoning field of evolutionary psychology continues to gain exposure and acceptance throughout the psychological community, it is important to explain this field clearly and accurately to students. This article discusses some recent findings and trends in evolutionary psychological research to aid instructors in their efforts to provide…

Seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, T.; Myneni, R.

2017-12-01

Multiple evidences of widespread greening and increasing terrestrial carbon uptake have been documented. In particular, enhanced gross productivity of northern vegetation has been a critical role leading to observed carbon uptake trend. However, seasonal photosynthetic activity and its contribution to observed annual carbon uptake trend and interannual variability are not well understood. Here, we introduce a multiple-source of datasets including ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple process-based global vegetation models to understand how seasonal variation of land surface vegetation controls a large-scale carbon exchange. Our analysis clearly shows a seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity in growing season during last decades. Particularly, increasing gross productivity in late spring and early summer is obvious and dominant driver explaining observed trend and variability. We observe more asymmetric productivity enhancement in warmer region and this spatially varying asymmetricity in northern vegetation are likely explained by canopy development rate, thermal and light availability. These results imply that continued warming may facilitate amplifying asymmetric vegetation activity and cause these trends to become more pervasive, in turn warming induced regime shift in northern land.

Mercury trends in ringed seals (Phoca hispida) from the western Canadian Arctic since 1973: associations with length of ice-free season.

PubMed

Gaden, A; Ferguson, S H; Harwood, L; Melling, H; Stern, G A

2009-05-15

We examined a unique time series of ringed seal (Phoca hispida) samples collected from a single location in the western Canadian Arctic between 1973 and 2007 to test for changes in total mercury (THg) in muscle tissue associated with (1) year and (2) length of ice-free season. We found no temporal trend with muscle THg whereas a curvilinear relationship existed with the length of ice-free season: seals attaimed higher THg in short (2 months) and long (5 months) ice-free seasons. delta 15N and delta13C in muscle tissue did not illustrate significant trends with ice-free days. We estimated that the turnover time of THg in muscle was about twice as long as stable isotope turnover in muscle, possibly explaining the lack of trend with stable isotopes in association with ice-free duration. Our discussion explains how summer environmental conditions may influence the composition of prey (mercury exposure) available to ringed seals. Results offer insight into how marine mammals may respond to directional changes in the Arctic ice-free season.

Magnitude of flood flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities for streams in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.

2017-05-11

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, determined the magnitude of flood flows at selected annual exceedance prob­abilities (AEPs) at streamgages in Massachusetts and from these data developed equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged locations in the State. Flood magnitudes were deter­mined for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEPs at 220 streamgages, 125 of which are in Massachusetts and 95 are in the adjacent States of Connecticut, New Hamp­shire, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont. AEP flood flows were computed for streamgages using the expected moments algorithm weighted with a recently computed regional skew­ness coefficient for New England.Regional regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitude of floods for selected AEP flows at ungaged sites from 199 selected streamgages and for 60 potential explanatory basin characteristics. AEP flows for 21 of the 125 streamgages in Massachusetts were not used in the final regional regression analysis, primarily because of regulation or redundancy. The final regression equations used general­ized least squares methods to account for streamgage record length and correlation. Drainage area, mean basin elevation, and basin storage explained 86 to 93 percent of the variance in flood magnitude from the 50- to 0.2-percent AEPs, respec­tively. The estimates of AEP flows at streamgages can be improved by using a weighted estimate that is based on the magnitude of the flood and associated uncertainty from the at-site analysis and the regional regression equations. Weighting procedures for estimating AEP flows at an ungaged site on a gaged stream also are provided that improve estimates of flood flows at the ungaged site when hydrologic characteristics do not abruptly change.Urbanization expressed as the percentage of imperviousness provided some explanatory power in the regional regression; however, it was not statistically significant at the 95-percent confidence level for any of the AEPs examined. The effect of urbanization on flood flows indicates a complex interaction with other basin characteristics. Another complicating factor is the assumption of stationarity, that is, the assumption that annual peak flows exhibit no significant trend over time. The results of the analysis show that stationarity does not prevail at all of the streamgages. About 27 percent of streamgages in Massachusetts and about 42 percent of streamgages in adjacent States with 20 or more years of systematic record used in the study show a significant positive trend at the 95-percent confidence level. The remaining streamgages had both positive and negative trends, but the trends were not statistically significant. Trends were shown to vary over time. In particular, during the past decade (2004–2013), peak flows were persistently above normal, which may give the impression of positive trends. Only continued monitoring will provide the information needed to determine whether recent increases in annual peak flows are a normal oscillation or a true trend.The analysis used 37 years of additional data obtained since the last comprehensive study of flood flows in Massa­chusetts. In addition, new methods for computing flood flows at streamgages and regionalization improved estimates of flood magnitudes at gaged and ungaged locations and better defined the uncertainty of the estimates of AEP floods.

A Long-Term Macroecological Analysis of the Recovery of a Waterbird Metacommunity after Site Protection

PubMed Central

Pagel, Janina; Martínez-Abraín, Alejandro; Gómez, Juan Antonio; Jiménez, Juan; Oro, Daniel

2014-01-01

We used the so called “land-bridge island” or “nested-subsets” theory to test the resilience of a highly fragmented and perturbated waterbird metacommunity, after legal protection of 18 wetlands in the western Mediterranean. Sites were monitored during 28 years and two seasons per year. The metacommunity was composed by 44 species during breeding and 67 species during wintering, including shorebirds, ducks, herons, gulls and divers (Podicipedidae). We identified a strong nested pattern. Consistent with the fact that the study system was to a large extent a spatial biogeographical continuous for thousands of years, fragmented only during the last centuries due to human activities. Non-random selective extinction was the most likely historical process creating the nested pattern, operated by the differential carrying capacity (surface-area) of the remaining sites. We also found a positive temporal trend in nestedness and a decreasing trend in species turnover among sites (β-diversity), indicating that sites are increasingly more alike to each other (i.e. increased biotic homogenization). This decreasing trend in β-diversity was explained by an increasing trend in local (α) diversity by range expansion of half the study species. Regional (γ) diversity also increased over time, indicating that colonization from outside the study system also occurred. Overall our results suggest that the study metacommunity is recovering from historical anthropogenic perturbations, showing a high long-term resilience, as expected for highly vagile waterbirds. However, not all waterbird groups contributed equally to the recovery, with most breeding shorebird species and most wintering duck species showing no geographical expansion. PMID:25133798

An aerosol climatology for a rapidly growing arid region (southern Arizona): Major aerosol species and remotely sensed aerosol properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorooshian, Armin; Wonaschütz, Anna; Jarjour, Elias G.; Hashimoto, Bryce I.; Schichtel, Bret A.; Betterton, Eric A.

2011-10-01

This study reports a comprehensive characterization of atmospheric aerosol particle properties in relation to meteorological and back trajectory data in the southern Arizona region, which includes two of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the United States (Phoenix and Tucson). Multiple data sets (MODIS, AERONET, OMI/TOMS, MISR, GOCART, ground-based aerosol measurements) are used to examine monthly trends in aerosol composition, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and aerosol size. Fine soil, sulfate, and organics dominate PM2.5 mass in the region. Dust strongly influences the region between March and July owing to the dry and hot meteorological conditions and back trajectory patterns. Because monsoon precipitation begins typically in July, dust levels decrease, while AOD, sulfate, and organic aerosol reach their maximum levels because of summertime photochemistry and monsoon moisture. Evidence points to biogenic volatile organic compounds being a significant source of secondary organic aerosol in this region. Biomass burning also is shown to be a major contributor to the carbonaceous aerosol budget in the region, leading to enhanced organic and elemental carbon levels aloft at a sky-island site north of Tucson (Mt. Lemmon). Phoenix exhibits different monthly trends for aerosol components in comparison with the other sites owing to the strong influence of fossil carbon and anthropogenic dust. Trend analyses between 1988 and 2009 indicate that the strongest statistically significant trends are reductions in sulfate, elemental carbon, and organic carbon, and increases in fine soil during the spring (March-May) at select sites. These results can be explained by population growth, land-use changes, and improved source controls.

Trends in Spending by the Department of Defense for Operation and Maintenance

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-01

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO Trends in Spending by the Department of Defense for Operation and Maintenance JANUARY 2017...Funding? g the Growth in O&M Funding cheme gorization Scheme in Explaining Trends in O&M Funding ed ration and Maintenance Between 1980 and 2015 Maintenance ...by Category of Spending ration and Maintenance Between 2000 and 2012, by Category From 2000 to 2012 in Categories That Are Difficult to Track CBO

A method to assess the inter-annual weather-dependent variability in air pollution concentration and deposition based on weather typing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleijel, Håkan; Grundström, Maria; Karlsson, Gunilla Pihl; Karlsson, Per Erik; Chen, Deliang

2016-02-01

Annual anomalies in air pollutant concentrations, and deposition (bulk and throughfall) of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium, in the Gothenburg region, south-west Sweden, were correlated with optimized linear combinations of the yearly frequency of Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) to determine the extent to which the year-to-year variation in pollution exposure can be partly explained by weather related variability. Air concentrations of urban NO2, CO, PM10, as well as O3 at both an urban and a rural monitoring site, and the deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium for the period 1997-2010 were included in the analysis. Linear detrending of the time series was performed to estimate trend-independent anomalies. These estimated anomalies were subtracted from observed annual values. Then the statistical significance of temporal trends with and without LWT adjustment was tested. For the pollutants studied, the annual anomaly was well correlated with the annual LWT combination (R2 in the range 0.52-0.90). Some negative (annual average [NO2], ammonia bulk deposition) or positive (average urban [O3]) temporal trends became statistically significant (p < 0.05) when the LWT adjustment was applied. In all the cases but one (NH4 throughfall, for which no temporal trend existed) the significance of temporal trends became stronger with LWT adjustment. For nitrate and ammonium, the LWT based adjustment explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variation for bulk deposition than for throughfall. This is probably linked to the longer time scale of canopy related dry deposition processes influencing throughfall being explained to a lesser extent by LWTs than the meteorological factors controlling bulk deposition. The proposed novel methodology can be used by authorities responsible for air pollution management, and by researchers studying temporal trends in pollution, to evaluate e.g. the relative importance of changes in emissions and weather variability in annual air pollution exposure.

Methodology of oral formulation selection in the pharmaceutical industry.

PubMed

Kuentz, Martin; Holm, René; Elder, David P

2016-05-25

Pharmaceutical formulations have to fulfil various requirements with respect to their intended use, either in the development phase or as a commercial product. New drug candidates with their specific properties confront the formulation scientist with industrial challenges for which a strategy is needed to cope with limited resources, stretched timelines as well as regulatory requirements. This paper aims at reviewing different methodologies to select a suitable formulation approach for oral delivery. Exclusively small-molecular drugs are considered and the review is written from an industrial perspective. Specific cases are discussed starting with an emphasis on poorly soluble compounds, then the topics of chemically labile drugs, low-dose compounds, and modified release are reviewed. Due to the broad scope of this work, a primary focus is on explaining basic concepts as well as recent trends. Different strategies are discussed to approach industrial formulation selection, which includes a structured product development. Examples for such structured development aim to provide guidance to formulators and finally, the recent topic of a manufacturing classification system is presented. It can be concluded that the field of oral formulation selection is particularly complex due to both multiple challenges as well as opportunities so that industrial scientists have to employ tailored approaches to design formulations successfully. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in the quality of water in New Jersey streams, water years 1971–2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hickman, R. Edward; Hirsch, Robert M.

2017-02-27

In a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the Delaware River Basin Commission, trend tests were conducted on selected water-quality characteristics measured at stations on streams in New Jersey during selected periods over water years 1971‒2011. Tests were conducted on 3 nutrients (total nitrogen, filtered nitrate plus nitrite, and total phosphorus) at 28 water-quality stations. At 4 of these stations, tests were also conducted on 3 measures of major ions (specific conductance, filtered chloride, and total dissolved solids).Two methods were used to identify trends—Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) models and seasonal rank-sum tests. For this report, the use of WRTDS models included the use of the WRTDS Bootstrap Test (WBT). WRTDS models identified trends in flow-normalized annual concentrations and flow-normalized annual fluxes over water years 1980‒2011 and 2000‒11 for each nutrient, filtered chloride, and total dissolved solids. WRTDS models were developed for each nutrient at the 20 or 21 stations at which streamflow was measured or estimated. Trends in nutrient concentration were reported for these stations; trends in nutrient fluxes were reported only for 15–17 of these stations.The results of WRTDS models for water years 1980‒2011 identified more stations with downward trends in concentrations of either total nitrogen or total phosphorus than upward trends. For total nitrogen, there were downward trends at 9 stations and an upward trend at 1 station. For total phosphorus, there were downward trends at 8 stations and an upward trend at 1 station. For filtered nitrate plus nitrite, there were downward trends at 6 stations and upward trends at 6 stations. The result of the trend test in flux for a selected nutrient at a selected station (downward trend, no trend, or upward trend) usually matched the trend result in concentration.Seasonal rank-sum tests, the second method used, identified step trends in water-quality measured in different decades—1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Tests were conducted on all nutrients at 28 stations and on all measures of major ions at the 4 selected stations. Results of seasonal rank-sum tests between the 1980s and the 2000s identified more stations with downward trends in concentrations of total nitrogen (14) than stations with upward trends (2) and more stations with downward trends in concentrations of total phosphorus (18) than stations with upward trends (1).A combined dataset of trend results for concentrations over water years 1980‒2011 was created from the results of the two tests for the period. Results of WRTDS models were included in this combined dataset, if available. Otherwise, the results of the seasonal rank-sum tests between water-quality characteristics measured in the 1980s and 2000s were included.Trend results over water years 1980‒2011 in the combined dataset show that few of the 28 stations had upward trends in concentrations of either total nitrogen or total phosphorus. There were only 2 stations with upward trends in total nitrogen concentration and 1 station with an upward trend in total phosphorus concentration. Results for filtered nitrate plus nitrite show about the same number of stations with upward trends (9) as stations with downward trends (7). Results for all measures of major ions show upward trends at the four stations tested.

Levels and temporal trends of toxaphene congeners in beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada.

PubMed

Gouteux, Bruno; Lebeuf, Michel; Muir, Derek C G; Gagné, Jean-Pierre

2003-10-15

Environmentally relevant toxaphene congeners were determined in blubber samples of stranded beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE), Canada. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the levels and the temporal trends (1988-1999) of a suite of six chlorobornanes (P26, P40/41, P44, P50, and P62) in the SLE belugas. P26 and P50 mean concentrations were in the same range as those reported for animals living in the Arctic environment suggesting that the atmospheric transport represents the main input of toxaphene to the SLE. A general exponential decline of chlorobornane concentrations in belugas was observed, except for P26 and P50 in males. On average, concentrations decreased by a factor of two in 8.5 years during the 1988-1999 time period. This rate of decline is similar to the reduction of toxaphene emission from agricultural soils in the southern United States reported over the same time period. Some differences in decline rates were observed among the studied CHB congeners. For instance, P62 decreased more rapidly than P26 and P50 in both male and female belugas. Several hypotheses were advanced to explain these differences such as selective metabolism of specific chlorobornanes by SLE belugas or their prey. However, a most likely explanation is the selective degradation of the technical product in soils and atmosphere in the source region.

U-Th-Pb systematics of selected samples from Apollo 17, Boulder 1, Station 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nunes, P.D.; Tatsumoto, M.

1975-01-01

Nine U-Th-Pb whole-rock analyses of selected brecciated materials from sample 72215 and one analysis of a pigeonite basalt clast from 72275 are presented. Both samples are from Boulder 1, Apollo 17. These data supplement previous Boulder 1 U-Th-Pb analyses of samples 72275 and 72255. U and Th concentrations indicate that most of the samples contain a moderate to large KREEP component. Samples containing the least KREEP are a noritic clast (72255,49; Civet Cat clast) and an anorthositic clast (72275,117). Evidence for the migration of Pb from Pb-rich matrix material into relatively Pb-poor clasts is presented for two clasts. Most of the Boulder 1 data define a linear trend that intersects concordia at ??? 3.9 and 4.4 b.y. when plotted on a U-Pb concordia diagram. The presence of one anorthositic clast distinctly off this trend indicates that a simple two-stage U-Pb evolution history is inadequate to explain all the data. Accordingly physical significance is only attached to the lower concordia intercept age of 3.9-4.0 b.y. The older concordia intercept age of ??? 4.4 b.y. is interpreted to reflect an averaging of events both older and younger than 4.4 b.y. The data suggest that significant differentiation and/or metamorphism occurred ??? 4.2 b.y. ago. The age of this event, however, is not accurately defined by these data. ?? 1975 D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht-Holland.

Quantitative Assessment of Desertification Using Landsat Data on a Regional Scale – A Case Study in the Ordos Plateau, China

PubMed Central

Xu, Duanyang; Kang, Xiangwu; Qiu, Dongsheng; Zhuang, Dafang; Pan, Jianjun

2009-01-01

Desertification is a serious threat to the ecological environment and social economy in our world and there is a pressing need to develop a reasonable and reproducible method to assess it at different scales. In this paper, the Ordos Plateau in China was selected as the research region and a quantitative method for desertification assessment was developed by using Landsat MSS and TM/ETM+ data on a regional scale. In this method, NDVI, MSDI and land surface albedo were selected as assessment indicators of desertification to represent land surface conditions from vegetation biomass, landscape pattern and micrometeorology. Based on considering the effects of vegetation type and time of images acquired on assessment indictors, assessing rule sets were built and a decision tree approach was used to assess desertification of Ordos Plateau in 1980, 1990 and 2000. The average overall accuracy of three periods was higher than 90%. The results showed that although some local places of Ordos Plateau experienced an expanding trend of desertification, the trend of desertification of Ordos Plateau was an overall decrease in from 1980 to 2000. By analyzing the causes of desertification processes, it was found that climate change could benefit for the reversion of desertification from 1980 to 1990 at a regional scale and human activities might explain the expansion of desertification in this period; however human conservation activities were the main driving factor that induced the reversion of desertification from 1990 to 2000. PMID:22573984

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mammen, Nisha; Spanu, Leonardo; Tyo, Eric C.

Having the ability to tune the oxidation state of Cu nanoparticles is essential for their utility as catalysts. The degree of oxidation that maximizes product yield and selectivity is known to vary, depending on the particular reaction. Using first principles calculations and XANES measurements, we show that for subnanometer sizes in the gas phase, smaller Cu clusters are more resistant to oxidation. However, this trend is reversed upon deposition on an alumina support. We are able to explain this result in terms of strong cluster-support interactions, which differ significantly for the oxidized and elemental clusters. The stable cluster phases alsomore » feature novel oxygen stoichiometries. Our results suggest that one can tune the degree of oxidation of Cu catalysts by optimizing not just their size, but also the support they are deposited on.« less

Trends, Opportunities, and Challenges for Tall Wind Turbine and Tower Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lantz, Eric; Roberts, Owen; Dykes, Katherine

This presentation summarizes recent analysis focused on characterizing the opportunity for Tall Wind technologies generally and for tall tower technologies specifically. It seeks to illuminate and explain the concept of Tall Wind, its impact on the wind industry to date, and the potential value of Tall Wind in the future. It also explores the conditions and locations under which the impacts of Tall Wind offer the most significant potential to increase wind technology performance. In addition, it seeks to examine the status of tall tower technology as a key sub-component of Tall Wind, focusing on the potential for continued innovationmore » in tubular steel wind turbine towers and the status and potential for a select set of alternative tall tower technologies.« less

Trends in mental health inequalities in England during a period of recession, austerity and welfare reform 2004 to 2013.

PubMed

Barr, Ben; Kinderman, Peter; Whitehead, Margaret

2015-12-01

Several indicators of population mental health in the UK have deteriorated since the financial crisis, during a period when a number of welfare reforms and austerity measures have been implemented. We do not know which groups have been most affected by these trends or the extent to which recent economic trends or recent policies have contributed to them. We use data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey to investigate trends in self reported mental health problems by socioeconomic group and employment status in England between 2004 and 2013. We then use panel regression models to investigate the association between local trends in mental health problems and local trends in unemployment and wages to investigate the extent to which these explain increases in mental health problems during this time. We found that the trend in the prevalence of people reporting mental health problems increased significantly more between 2009 and 2013 compared to the previous trends. This increase was greatest amongst people with low levels of education and inequalities widened. The gap in prevalence between low and high educated groups widened by 1.29 percentage points for women (95% CI: 0.50 to 2.08) and 1.36 percentage points for men (95% CI: 0.31 to 2.42) between 2009 and 2013. Trends in unemployment and wages only partly explained these recent increases in mental health problems. The trend in reported mental health problems across England broadly mirrored the pattern of increases in suicides and antidepressant prescribing. Welfare policies and austerity measures implemented since 2010 may have contributed to recent increases in mental health problems and widening inequalities. This has led to rising numbers of people with low levels of education out of work with mental health problems. These trends are likely to increase social exclusion as well as demand for and reliance on social welfare systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking plant functional trait plasticity and the large increase in forest water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrotheodoros, Theodoros; Pappas, Christoforos; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo; Keenan, Trevor F.; Gentine, Pierre; Gough, Christopher M.; Fatichi, Simone

2017-09-01

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce stomatal conductance, thus increasing plant water use efficiency. A recent study based on eddy covariance flux observations from Northern Hemisphere forests showed a large increase in inherent water use efficiency (IWUE). Here we used an updated version of the same data set and robust uncertainty quantification to revisit these contemporary IWUE trends. We tested the hypothesis that the observed IWUE increase could be attributed to interannual trends in plant functional traits, potentially triggered by environmental change. We found that IWUE increased by 1.3% yr-1, which is less than previously reported but still larger than theoretical expectations. Numerical simulations with the Tethys-Chloris ecosystem model using temporally static plant functional traits cannot explain this increase. Simulations with plant functional trait plasticity, i.e., temporal changes in model parameters such as specific leaf area and maximum Rubisco capacity, match the observed trends in IWUE. Our results show that trends in plant functional traits, equal to 1.0% yr-1, can explain the observed IWUE trends. Thus, at decadal or longer time scales, trait plasticity could potentially influence forest water, carbon, and energy fluxes with profound implications for both the monitoring of temporal changes in plant functional traits and their representation in Earth system models.

Spouse selection in Canada, 1921-78: an examination by age, sex and religion.

PubMed

Basavarajappa, K G; Norris, M J; Halli, S S

1988-04-01

This paper presents time series data on spouse selection in Canada for the period 1921-1978. Homogamous and endogamous trends are examined by age, sex, and religion. In the case of religious endogamy, most groups have shown decreasing proportions of marriages. There are also considerable differences in rates of endogamy among religious groups, and these differences have largely persisted over time. Until 1971, the proportions of brides marrying older and younger grooms decreased, while the proportion marrying the same age increased, after which these trends reversed. Younger males increasingly tended to select brides of their own age group until the 1960s, while older males have been increasingly heterogamous since World War II. While these changes in spouse selection have been examined with respect to changes in the unmarried population, the relation between the 2 trends is not clear, and it is difficult to account fully for the observed trends in spouse selection with respect to age.

Variability Selected Low-Luminosity Active Galactic Nuclei in the 4 Ms Chandra Deep Field-South

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, M.; Brandt, W. N.; Xue, Y. Q.; Paolillo, D. M.; Alexander, F. E.; Bauer, F. E.; Lehmer, B. D.; Luo, B.; Shemmer, O.; Schneider, D. P.;

The Redistribution of Responsibilities in Five European Educational Systems: From Global Trends to National Arrangements

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Batista, Susana

2014-01-01

This article provides a comparative analysis on the evolution of the distribution of responsibilities--the authority of deciding over a particular domain--at the national, regional, and local levels in the European Union educational systems. After explaining common trends in the institutional arrangements through the role of evaluation, the…

Families at the Century's Turn: The Troubling Economic Trends. Family Review.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindjord, Denise

2000-01-01

Discusses U.S. economic trends for the past century. Notes that distribution of wealth is more concentrated at top than is distribution of income, with income inequality growing worse in the 1990s. Maintains that wealth disparity explains achievement test score gaps between white and minority students. Presents proposals for asset-building,…

International Trends in the Implementation of Assessment for Learning: Implications for Policy and Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birenbaum, Menucha; DeLuca, Christopher; Earl, Lorna; Heritage, Margaret; Klenowski, Val; Looney, Anne; Smith, Kari; Timperley, Helen; Volante, Louis; Wyatt-Smith, Claire

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the emergence of assessment for learning (AfL) across the globe with particular attention given to Western educational jurisdictions. Authors from Australia, Canada, Ireland, Israel, New Zealand, Norway, and the USA explain the genesis of AfL, its evolution and impact on school systems, and discuss current trends in policy…

Is Anxiety in Young Boys the New Normal?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mogel, Wendy

2016-01-01

As a psychologist of 35 years, Wendy Mogel discusses what she has discovered to be the new trend behind anxiety in young boys. Through hours of probing and pondering, neither hyperparenting nor early trauma (what one might think were logical causes of a young boy's anxiety) is the key to understanding this new trend. She explains that many…

State Profiles: Financing Public Higher Education. 1978 to 1998 Trend Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halstead, Kent

This report presents two large tables showing trends in the financing of public higher education since 1977-78. Introductory information explains how to use the tables, the data-time relationship (whether fiscal year, academic year, or calendar year), and includes a sample chart constructed from one state's data. The raw data used for these…

Chapter 1 in Ohio: Elementary and Secondary Education Act. 24th Annual Evaluation Report, Fiscal 1989.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohio State Dept. of Education, Columbus. Div. of Federal Assistance.

This report summarizes recent activities in Ohio provided through Chapter 1 of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act. Information presented includes statistics for fiscal 1989, participation trends, instructional impact, expenditure and staffing patterns, parent involvement, and 5-year trends. The first two sections of the report explain the…

Sources and preparation of data for assessing trends in concentrations of pesticides in streams of the United States, 1992-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Jeffrey D.

2009-01-01

This report provides a water-quality data set of 44 commonly used pesticides and 8 pesticide degradates suitable for a national assessment of trends in pesticide concentrations in streams of the United States. Water-quality samples collected from January 1992 through August 2006 at stream-water sites of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program and the National Stream Quality Accounting Network Program were compiled, reviewed, selected, and prepared for trend analysis as described in this report. Samples analyzed at the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory by a gas chromatography/mass spectrometry analytical method were the most extensive in time and space and were selected for national trend analysis. The selection criteria described in the report produced a trend data set of 16,869 pesticide samples at 201 stream and river sites.

An HIV Epidemic Model Based on Viral Load Dynamics: Value in Assessing Empirical Trends in HIV Virulence and Community Viral Load

PubMed Central

Herbeck, Joshua T.; Mittler, John E.; Gottlieb, Geoffrey S.; Mullins, James I.

2014-01-01

Trends in HIV virulence have been monitored since the start of the AIDS pandemic, as studying HIV virulence informs our understanding of HIV epidemiology and pathogenesis. Here, we model changes in HIV virulence as a strictly evolutionary process, using set point viral load (SPVL) as a proxy, to make inferences about empirical SPVL trends from longitudinal HIV cohorts. We develop an agent-based epidemic model based on HIV viral load dynamics. The model contains functions for viral load and transmission, SPVL and disease progression, viral load trajectories in multiple stages of infection, and the heritability of SPVL across transmissions. We find that HIV virulence evolves to an intermediate level that balances infectiousness with longer infected lifespans, resulting in an optimal SPVL∼4.75 log10 viral RNA copies/mL. Adaptive viral evolution may explain observed HIV virulence trends: our model produces SPVL trends with magnitudes that are broadly similar to empirical trends. With regard to variation among studies in empirical SPVL trends, results from our model suggest that variation may be explained by the specific epidemic context, e.g. the mean SPVL of the founding lineage or the age of the epidemic; or improvements in HIV screening and diagnosis that results in sampling biases. We also use our model to examine trends in community viral load, a population-level measure of HIV viral load that is thought to reflect a population's overall transmission potential. We find that community viral load evolves in association with SPVL, in the absence of prevention programs such as antiretroviral therapy, and that the mean community viral load is not necessarily a strong predictor of HIV incidence. PMID:24945322

Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

2009-01-01

Increasingly complex water-management decisions require water-quality monitoring programs that provide data for multiple purposes, including trend analyses, to detect improvement or deterioration in water quality with time. Understanding surface-water-quality trends assists resource managers in identifying emerging water-quality concerns, planning remediation efforts, and evaluating the effectiveness of the remediation. This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet-Kentucky Division of Water, to analyze and summarize long-term water-quality trends of selected properties and water-quality constituents in selected streams in Kentucky's ambient stream water-quality monitoring network. Trends in surface-water quality for 15 properties and water-quality constituents were analyzed at 37 stations with drainage basins ranging in size from 62 to 6,431 square miles. Analyses of selected physical properties (temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, hardness, and suspended solids), for major ions (chloride and sulfate), for selected metals (iron and manganese), for nutrients (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate), and for fecal coliform were compiled from the Commonwealth's ambient water-quality monitoring network. Trend analyses were completed using the S-Plus statistical software program S-Estimate Trend (S-ESTREND), which detects trends in water-quality data. The trend-detection techniques supplied by this software include the Seasonal Kendall nonparametric methods for use with uncensored data or data censored with only one reporting limit and the Tobit-regression parametric method for use with data censored with multiple reporting limits. One of these tests was selected for each property and water-quality constituent and applied to all station records so that results of the trend procedure could be compared among stations. Flow-adjustment procedures were used with these techniques at all stations to remove the effects of streamflow on water-quality variability. Flow adjustments were used for all constituents, except temperature. A decreasing trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent; whereas, an increasing trend indicates an increase in concentration and potential degradation in water quality. Trend results varied statewide by station and by physical property and water-quality constituent. The results for all stations and all physical properties and water-quality constituents examined had at least one statistically significant (p-value <0.05) increasing or decreasing trend during the specified period of record. Water temperature and concentrations of dissolved oxygen had no significant decreasing trends at any station. Water temperature had one significant increasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. Specific conductance and concentrations of hardness had one significant decreasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. pH also had a significant decreasing trend at the Mud River near Gus station. Concentrations of total suspended solids had 1 increasing trend at the Kentucky River at High Bridge station and 10 decreasing trends with 5 of those stations located in the Cumberland River Basin. Major ions analyzed for trends included chloride and sulfate. Concentrations of chloride at the 37 stations had increasing trends at 15 stations, decreasing trends at 3 stations, and no significant trend in concentration over time at 19 stations. Most of the increasing trends in concentrations of chloride are located in the northern part of Kentucky, possibly indicating an increase in the use of road salts for road deicing and (or) the result of resource extraction (oil, gas, and coal). Increasing trends of sulfate concentrations were detected at seven stations, all located in the Appalachian

Brain enlargement and dental reduction were not linked in hominin evolution

PubMed Central

Smaers, Jeroen B.; Holloway, Ralph L.

2017-01-01

The large brain and small postcanine teeth of modern humans are among our most distinctive features, and trends in their evolution are well studied within the hominin clade. Classic accounts hypothesize that larger brains and smaller teeth coevolved because behavioral changes associated with increased brain size allowed a subsequent dental reduction. However, recent studies have found mismatches between trends in brain enlargement and posterior tooth size reduction in some hominin species. We use a multiple-variance Brownian motion approach in association with evolutionary simulations to measure the tempo and mode of the evolution of endocranial and dental size and shape within the hominin clade. We show that hominin postcanine teeth have evolved at a relatively consistent neutral rate, whereas brain size evolved at comparatively more heterogeneous rates that cannot be explained by a neutral model, with rapid pulses in the branches leading to later Homo species. Brain reorganization shows evidence of elevated rates only much later in hominin evolution, suggesting that fast-evolving traits such as the acquisition of a globular shape may be the result of direct or indirect selection for functional or structural traits typical of modern humans. PMID:28049819

Florida's Public Education Spending. School Choice Issues in the State

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aud, Susan

2006-01-01

This study analyzes and explains Florida's education finance system. It explains the sources of revenue and the expenditure of funds, reporting figures for each of the state's 67 districts. It also analyzes the trend in current expenditures --that is, the day-to-day operating costs of schools--to address the question of whether they have been…

Explaining the Rise in Educational Gradients in Mortality. NBER Working Paper No. 15678

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cutler, David M.; Lange, Fabian; Meara, Ellen; Richards, Seth; Ruhm, Christopher J.

2010-01-01

The long-standing inverse relationship between education and mortality strengthened substantially later in the 20th century. This paper examines the reasons for this increase. We show that behavioral risk factors are not of primary importance. Smoking has declined more for the better educated, but not enough to explain the trend. Obesity has risen…

Liquid Chromatography in 1982.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freeman, David H.

1982-01-01

Reviews trends in liquid chromatography including apparatus, factors affecting efficient separation of a mixture (peak sharpness and speed), simplified problem-solving, adsorption, bonded phase chromatography, ion selectivity, and size exclusion. The current trend is to control chemical selectivity by the liquid phase. (Author/JN)

How Changes in Families and Schools Are Related to Trends in Black-White Test Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berends, Mark; Lucas, Samuel R.; Penaloza, Roberto V.

2008-01-01

Through several decades of research, a great deal has been written about trends in black-white test scores and the factors that may explain the gaps in different subject areas. Only a few studies have examined the changing relationships between gaps in students' test scores and family and school measures in nationally representative data over…

Diagnostic Substitution for Intellectual Disability: A Flawed Explanation for the Rise in Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nevison, Cynthia D.; Blaxill, Mark

2017-01-01

Time trends in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and intellectual disability (ID) prevalence from the United States Individuals with Disabilities Education Act data were computed from 2000 to 2011 for each state and each age from 6 to 17. These trends did not support the hypothesis that diagnostic substitution for ID can explain the ASD rise over…

Trends in Ethnic Inequality in the Attainment of Vocational Degrees: A Cohort Study in Germany

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schuller, Karin

2018-01-01

The present article analyzes the development of the ethnic gap--with respect to the attainment of vocational degrees--over the immigration cohorts 1960-2001 by examining how social integration indicators and general secondary school education may help to explain the trend. It was found that the gap between natives and migrants increased. Above…

Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

2007-12-01

North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

Casas Muertas and Oficina No. 1: internal migrations and malaria trends in Venezuela 1905-1945.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando

2007-06-01

To compare internal migration and temperature as factors behind the decreasing trend in malaria deaths observed in Venezuela from 1905 to 1945, linear autoregressive models are fitted to a historical dataset. The model that only incorporates internal migration is the one with the best fit. The decreasing trend in malaria deaths in Venezuela, from 1905 to 1945, is not explained by a trend in mean annual temperature, but it is associated with an increase in the proportion of population in the Capital District, during a time period when the area was the principal attractor of migrations within the country.

Phase Transformation Evolution in NiTi Shape Memory Alloy under Cyclic Nanoindentation Loadings at Dissimilar Rates

PubMed Central

Amini, Abbas; Cheng, Chun; Kan, Qianhua; Naebe, Minoo; Song, Haisheng

2013-01-01

Hysteresis energy decreased significantly as nanocrystalline NiTi shape memory alloy was under triangular cyclic nanoindentation loadings at high rate. Jagged curves evidenced discrete stress relaxations. With a large recovery state of maximum deformation in each cycle, this behavior concluded in several nucleation sites of phase transformation in stressed bulk. Additionally, the higher initial propagation velocity of interface and thermal activation volume, and higher levels of phase transition stress in subsequent cycles explained the monotonic decreasing trend of dissipated energy. In contrast, the dissipated energy showed an opposite increasing trend during triangular cyclic loadings at a low rate and 60 sec holding time after each unloading stage. Due to the isothermal loading rate and the holding time, a major part of the released latent heat was transferred during the cyclic loading resulting in an unchanged phase transition stress. This fact with the reorientation phenomenon explained the monotonic increasing trend of hysteresis energy. PMID:24336228

Explaining trends in addictive behaviour policy--the role of policy coherence.

PubMed

Adam, Christian; Raschzok, Andreas

2014-05-01

This article analyses addictive behaviour policy regimes - focusing on illegal drugs and gambling - in 19 countries over a period of 50 years. It compares how these countries have combined rules on the consumption and possession of cannabis and on the participation in sports betting with sanctions for violations of these rules. While theories of policy convergence can explain dominant trends in the way the combination of these policy instruments have changed, they cannot account for all of the empirical variation observed. Turning to Portugal, a case which deviates in both illegal drug and gambling policy from the expected trend, we show that explanations of policy change improve substantially when taking the concept of policy coherence into account. Specifically, we argue that changes of the policy status quo are facilitated when policy entrepreneurs succeed in shaping a perception of policy incoherence. In turn, when relevant actors are able to maintain a perception of policy coherence, the policy status quo is stabilized. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the Western United States--Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, M. D.; Knowles, N.; Cayan, D. R.

2015-12-01

Knowles et al. (J. Climate, 2006) documented long-term (1949-2004) trends in precipitation form, with a smaller fraction of precipitation falling, in recent decades, on days with reported snow compared to days when no snow was reported (and when precipitation was presumably rain). This precipitation-amount-corrected trend was found at three-quarters of 261 cooperative weather stations across the region. The trends correlated with corresponding trends towards warmer winter air temperatures at the weather stations involved. An update of those analyses through the more recent period indicates that the overall swing towards less precipitation fraction occurring on snowy days has continued through the intervening years, with 21st Century rain/snow fractions remaining significantly higher than historical norms at most stations. The same data have also been used to develop site-specific statistical relations between precipitation form (snowy-day precipitation vs purely rainy day) and air temperatures by logistical regressions at over 200 stations across the West, to determine whether the general temperature trends mentioned above have, in fact, been large enough to explain the trending precipitation forms. That is, were the warming trends detected across the West large enough to actually raise temperatures above the local snow-rain thresholds at most stations? The regression relations show that the temperature at which half of the wet days have been snowy historically varies, from station to station, across a range from -2ºC to +4ºC. Thus at some stations winter storm temperatures would have to rise above about -2ºC to markedly impact precipitation forms, while at other stations, temperature had to rise above +4ºC. Nonetheless, observed temperature trends since 1950 have been sufficient to explain the observed regional precipitation-form trends. The fitted precipitation form-temperature relations also provide a basis for estimating precipitation forms in hydrological models and in climate-change projections across the region, allowing—for example—more geographically informed projections of precipitation-form changes under future climates. On the whole, though, the expected relations between warming trends and precipitation-form trends found by Knowles et al. (2006) continue to hold.

Hot spots, hot moments and time-span of changes in drivers and their responses on carbon cycling in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomelleri, E.; Forkel, M.; Fuchs, R.; Jung, M.; Mahecha, M. D.; Reichstein, M.; Weber, U.

2012-12-01

The objective of this study is to provide a complete quantitative assessment of the annual to decadal variability, hotspots of changes and the temporal magnitude of regional trends and variability for the main drivers of carbon cycle like climate and land use and their responses for Europe. For this purpose we used an harmonized climatic data set (ERA Interim and WATCH) and an historical land-use change reconstruction (HILDAv1, Fuchs in prep.). Both the data sets cover the period 1900-2010 and have a 0.25 deg spatial resolution. As driver response we used two different empirically up-scaled GPP fields: the first (MTE) obtained by the application of model trees (Jung et al. 2009) and a second (LUE) based on a light use efficiency model (Tomelleri in prep.). Both the approaches are based on the up-scaling of Fluxnet observations. The response fields have monthly temporal resolution and are limited to the period 1982-2011. We estimated break-points in time series of driver and response variables based on the method of Bai and Perron (2003) to identify changes in trends. This method was implemented in Verbesselt et al. 2010 and applied by deJong et al. 2011 to detect phenological and abrupt changes and trends in vegetation activity based on satellite-derived vegetation index time series. The analysis of drivers and responses allowed to identify the dominant factors driving the biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange. The synchronous analysis of climatic drivers and land use change allowed us to explain most of the temporal and spatial variability showing that in the regions and time period where the most land use change occurred the climatic drivers are not sufficient to explain trends and oscillation in carbon cycling. The comparison of our analysis for the up-scaling methods shows some agreement: we found inconsistency in the spatial and temporal patterns in regions where the Fluxnet network is less dense. This can be explained by the conceptual difference in the up-scaling methods: while one is on pixel basis (MTE) the other (LUE) is up-scaling model parameters by bioclimatic regions. Our study shows the value of up-scaling methods for understanding the spatial-temporal variability of carbon cycling and how these are a valuable tool for spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, the use of climatic drivers and land-use change demonstrated the need of taking natural and anthropogenic drivers into consideration for explaining trends and oscillations. Possibly a further analysis including detailed management practices for forestry and agriculture would help in explaining the remaining variance. References: Bai, J., Perron, P.: Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 2003. Jung, M., Reichstein, M., and Bondeau, A.: Towards global empirical upscaling of FLUXNET eddy covariance observations: validation of a model tree ensemble approach using a biosphere model. Biogeosciences, 6, 2009. Verbesselt, J., Hyndman, R., Newnham, G., Culvenor, D.: Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series. Remote Sensing of Environment,114(1), 2010. de Jong, R., Verbesselt, J., Schaepman, M.E., Bruin, S.: Trend changes in global greening and browning: contribution of short-term trends to longer-term change. Global Change Biology, 18, 2011.

Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

2015-07-01

Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

Climate-driven longitudinal trends in pasture-borne helminth infections of dairy cattle.

PubMed

Charlier, Johannes; Ghebretinsae, Aklilu H; Levecke, Bruno; Ducheyne, Els; Claerebout, Edwin; Vercruysse, Jozef

2016-12-01

Helminth parasites of grazing ruminants are highly prevalent globally and impact negatively on animal productivity and food security. There is a growing concern that climate change increases helminth disease frequency and intensity. In Europe, these concerns stem from case reports and theoretical life cycle models assessing the effects of climate change scenarios on helminth epidemiology. We believe this study is the first to investigate climate-driven trends in helminth infections of cattle on a cohort of randomly selected farms. One thousand, six hundred and eighty dairy farms were monitored over an 8year period for the two major helminth infections in temperate climate regions and climate-driven trends were investigated by multivariable linear mixed models. The general levels of exposure to Fasciola hepatica decreased over the study period while those to Ostertagia ostertagi increased, and this could at least be partially explained by meteorological factors (i.e. the number of rainy (precipitation >1mm) and warm days (average daily temperature >10°C) in a year). The longitudinal trends varied according to the altitude and the agricultural region of the farm. This study shows that longitudinal epidemiological data from sentinel farms combined with meteorological datasets can significantly contribute to understanding the effects of climate on infectious disease dynamics. When local environmental conditions are taken into account, the effects of climate change on disease dynamics can also be understood at more local scales. We recommend setting up a longitudinal sampling strategy across Europe in order to monitor climate-driven changes in helminth disease risk to inform adaptation strategies to promote animal health and productivity. Copyright © 2016 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the Effect of Air Pollution Controls on Trends in Shortwave Radiation over the United States from 1995 through 2010 from Multiple Observation Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gan, Chuen-Meei; Pleim, Jonathan; Mathur, Rohit

2014-02-14

Long term datasets of total (all-sky) and clear-sky downwelling shortwave (SW) radiation, cloud cover fraction (cloudiness) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) are analyzed together with aerosol concentration from several networks (e.g. SURFRAD, CASTNET, IMPROVE and ARM) in the United States (US). Seven states with varying climatology are selected to better understand the effect of aerosols and clouds on SW radiation. This analysis aims to test the hypothesis that the reductions in anthropogenic aerosol burden resulting from substantial reductions in emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides over the past 15 years across the US has caused an increase in surfacemore » SW radiation. We show that the total and clear-sky downwelling SW radiation from seven sites have increasing trends except Penn State which shows no tendency in clear-sky SW radiation. After investigating several confounding factors, the causes can be due to the geography of the site, aerosol distribution, heavy air traffic and increasing cloudiness. Moreover, we assess the relationship between total column AOD with surface aerosol concentration to test our hypothesis. In our findings, the trends of clear-sky SW radiation, AOD, and aerosol concentration from the sites in eastern US agree well with our hypothesis. However, the sites in western US demonstrate increasing AOD associated with mostly increasing trends in surface aerosol concentration. At these sites, the changes in aerosol burden and/or direct aerosol effects alone cannot explain the observed changes in SW radiation, but other factors need to be considered such as cloudiness, aerosol vertical profiles and elevated plumes.« less

Theoretical Study of Fe(CO)n-

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricca, Alessandra; Baushlicher, Charles W., Jr.

1995-01-01

The structures and CO binding energies are computed for Fe(CO)n- using a hybrid density functional theory (DFT) approach. The structures and ground states can be explained in terms of maximizing the Fe to CO 2pi* donation and minimizing Fe-CO 5 sigma repulsion. The trends in the CO binding energies for Fe(CO)n- and the differences between the trends for Fe(CO)n- and Fe(CO)n are also explained. For Fe(CO)n-, the second, third, and fourth CO bonding energies are in good agreement with experiment, while the first is too small. The first CO binding is also too small using the coupled cluster singles and doubles approach including a perturbation estimate of the connected triple excitations.

Can time-dependent density functional theory predict intersystem crossing in organic chromophores? A case study on benzo(bis)-X-diazole based donor-acceptor-donor type molecules.

PubMed

Tam, Teck Lip Dexter; Lin, Ting Ting; Chua, Ming Hui

2017-06-21

Here we utilized new diagnostic tools in time-dependent density functional theory to explain the trend of intersystem crossing in benzo(bis)-X-diazole based donor-acceptor-donor type molecules. These molecules display a wide range of fluorescence quantum yields and triplet yields, making them excellent candidates for testing the validity of these diagnostic tools. We believe that these tools are cost-effective and can be applied to structurally similar organic chromophores to predict/explain the trends of intersystem crossing, and thus fluorescence quantum yields and triplet yields without the use of complex and expensive multireference configuration interaction or multireference pertubation theory methods.

Genetic algorithm learning in a New Keynesian macroeconomic setup.

PubMed

Hommes, Cars; Makarewicz, Tomasz; Massaro, Domenico; Smits, Tom

2017-01-01

In order to understand heterogeneous behavior amongst agents, empirical data from Learning-to-Forecast (LtF) experiments can be used to construct learning models. This paper follows up on Assenza et al. (2013) by using a Genetic Algorithms (GA) model to replicate the results from their LtF experiment. In this GA model, individuals optimize an adaptive, a trend following and an anchor coefficient in a population of general prediction heuristics. We replicate experimental treatments in a New-Keynesian environment with increasing complexity and use Monte Carlo simulations to investigate how well the model explains the experimental data. We find that the evolutionary learning model is able to replicate the three different types of behavior, i.e. convergence to steady state, stable oscillations and dampened oscillations in the treatments using one GA model. Heterogeneous behavior can thus be explained by an adaptive, anchor and trend extrapolating component and the GA model can be used to explain heterogeneous behavior in LtF experiments with different types of complexity.

Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data

PubMed Central

Hegglin, M. I.; Plummer, D. A.; Shepherd, T. G.; Scinocca, J. F.; Anderson, J.; Froidevaux, L.; Funke, B.; Hurst, D.; Rozanov, A.; Urban, J.; von Clarmann, T.; Walker, K. A.; Wang, H. J.; Tegtmeier, S.; Weigel, K.

2017-01-01

Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry-climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models' water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper-stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere. PMID:29263751

Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data.

PubMed

Hegglin, M I; Plummer, D A; Shepherd, T G; Scinocca, J F; Anderson, J; Froidevaux, L; Funke, B; Hurst, D; Rozanov, A; Urban, J; von Clarmann, T; Walker, K A; Wang, H J; Tegtmeier, S; Weigel, K

2014-01-01

Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry-climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models' water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper-stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere.

Maternal diet and risk of astrocytic glioma in children: a report from the Childrens Cancer Group (United States and Canada)

PubMed

Bunin, G R; Kuijten, R R; Boesel, C P; Buckley, J D; Meadows, A T

1994-03-01

N-nitroso compounds and their precursors, nitrites and nitrates, have been hypothesized as risk factors, and vitamins C and E, which inhibit N-nitroso formation, as protective factors for brain tumors. A case-control study of maternal diet during pregnancy and risk of astrocytoma, the most common childhood brain tumor, was conducted by the Childrens Cancer Group. The study included 155 cases under age six at diagnosis and the same number of matched controls selected by random-digit dialing. A trend was observed for consumption of cured meats, which contain preformed nitrosamines (a class of N-nitroso compounds) and their precursors (adjusted odds ratio [OR] for highest quartile of intake relative to lowest = 1.7, P trend = 0.10). However, no strong trends were observed for nitrosamine (OR = 0.8, P = 0.60); nitrite (OR = 1.3, P = 0.54); nitrate (OR = 0.7, P = 0.43); vitamin C (OR = 0.7, P = 0.37); or vitamin E (OR = 0.7, P = 0.48). Iron supplements were associated with a significant decrease in risk (OR = 0.5, 95 percent confidence interval = 0.3-0.8). The effect of several dietary factors differed by income level, making interpretation of the results difficult. Future research should investigate the effect of dietary components not assessed in this study, as these may explain the disparate effects by income level. The results of this study provide limited support for the nitrosamine hypothesis.

Long-term trends of bloater (Coregonus hoyi) recruitment in Lake Michigan: evidence for the effect of sex ratio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Croley, Thomas E.

2006-01-01

Long-term population trends are generally explained by factors extrinsic (e.g., climate, predation) rather than intrinsic (e.g., genetics, maternal effects) to the population. We sought to understand the long-term population dynamics of an important native Lake Michigan prey fish, the bloaterCoregonus hoyi. Over a 38-year time series, three 10- to 15-year phases occurred (poor, excellent, and then poor recruitment) without high interannual variability within a particular phase. We used dynamic linear models to determine whether extrinsic (winter and spring temperature, alewife predator densities) or intrinsic factors (population egg production, adult condition, adult sex ratio) explained variation in recruitment. Models that included population egg production, sex ratio, winter and spring temperature, and adult bloater condition explained the most variation. Of these variables, sex ratio, which ranged from 47% to 97% female across the time series, consistently had the greatest effect: recruitment declined with female predominance. Including biomass of adult alewife predators in the models did not explain additional variation. Overall our results indicated that bloater recruitment is linked to its sex ratio, but understanding the underlying mechanisms will require additional efforts.

Random forest meteorological normalisation models for Swiss PM10 trend analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grange, Stuart K.; Carslaw, David C.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph

2018-05-01

Meteorological normalisation is a technique which accounts for changes in meteorology over time in an air quality time series. Controlling for such changes helps support robust trend analysis because there is more certainty that the observed trends are due to changes in emissions or chemistry, not changes in meteorology. Predictive random forest models (RF; a decision tree machine learning technique) were grown for 31 air quality monitoring sites in Switzerland using surface meteorological, synoptic scale, boundary layer height, and time variables to explain daily PM10 concentrations. The RF models were used to calculate meteorologically normalised trends which were formally tested and evaluated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Between 1997 and 2016, significantly decreasing normalised PM10 trends ranged between -0.09 and -1.16 µg m-3 yr-1 with urban traffic sites experiencing the greatest mean decrease in PM10 concentrations at -0.77 µg m-3 yr-1. Similar magnitudes have been reported for normalised PM10 trends for earlier time periods in Switzerland which indicates PM10 concentrations are continuing to decrease at similar rates as in the past. The ability for RF models to be interpreted was leveraged using partial dependence plots to explain the observed trends and relevant physical and chemical processes influencing PM10 concentrations. Notably, two regimes were suggested by the models which cause elevated PM10 concentrations in Switzerland: one related to poor dispersion conditions and a second resulting from high rates of secondary PM generation in deep, photochemically active boundary layers. The RF meteorological normalisation process was found to be robust, user friendly and simple to implement, and readily interpretable which suggests the technique could be useful in many air quality exploratory data analysis situations.

Trends in Irish-Medium Education in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1920: Shifting Agents and Explanations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McAdory, Sara E.; Janmaat, Jan Germen

2015-01-01

Some recent studies have suggested a significant bottom-up or parental component to recent movements for autochthonous minority language-medium education (MLME). This study takes MLME as the outcome of interest and seeks to explain trends in Irish-medium education (IME) in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1920--a unique…

The Behavior of Selected Diffuse Interstellar Bands with Molecular Fraction in Diffuse Atomic and Molecular Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Haoyu; Welty, Daniel E.; York, Donald G.; Sonnentrucker, Paule; Dahlstrom, Julie A.; Baskes, Noah; Friedman, Scott D.; Hobbs, Lewis M.; Jiang, Zihao; Rachford, Brian; Snow, Theodore P.; Sherman, Reid; Zhao, Gang

2017-12-01

We study the behavior of eight diffuse interstellar bands (DIBs) in different interstellar environments, as characterized by the fraction of hydrogen in molecular form (f H2), with comparisons to the corresponding behavior of various known atomic and molecular species. The equivalent widths of the five “normal” DIBs (λλ5780.5, 5797.1, 6196.0, 6283.8, and 6613.6), normalized to E B-V , show a “lambda-shaped” behavior: they increase at low f H2, peak at f H2 ˜ 0.3, and then decrease. The similarly normalized column densities of Ca, Ca+, Ti+, and CH+ also decline for f H2 > 0.3. In contrast, the normalized column densities of Na, K, CH, CN, and CO increase monotonically with f H2, and the trends exhibited by the three C2 DIBs (λλ4726.8, 4963.9, and 4984.8) lie between those two general behaviors. These trends with f H2 are accompanied by cosmic scatter, the dispersion at any given f H2 being significantly larger than the individual errors of measurement. The lambda-shaped trends suggest the balance between creation and destruction of the DIB carriers differs dramatically between diffuse atomic and diffuse molecular clouds; additional processes aside from ionization and shielding are needed to explain those observed trends. Except for several special cases, the highest W λ (5780)/W λ (5797) ratios, characterizing the so-called “sigma-zeta effect,” occur only at f H2 < 0.2. We propose a sequence of DIBs based on trends in their pair-wise strength ratios with increasing f H2. In order of increasing environmental density, we find the λ6283.8 and λ5780.5 DIBs, the λ6196.0 DIB, the λ6613.6 DIB, the λ5797.1 DIB, and the C2 DIBs.

Correlation of white female breast cancer incidence trends with nitrogen dioxide emission levels and motor vehicle density patterns.

PubMed

Chen, Fan; Bina, William F

2012-02-01

The long-term trend of female breast cancer incidence rates in the United States and some European countries demonstrates a similar pattern: an increasing trend in the last century followed by a declining trend in this century. The well-known risk factors cannot explain this trend. We compared the breast cancer incidence trends obtained from SEER data with the trend of nitrogen dioxides (NOx) emission and monitoring data as well as motor vehicle density data. The upward followed by downward trend of NOx is similar to the breast cancer incidence trend but with an offset of 20 years earlier. Motor vehicles are the major source of NOx emissions. The geographic distribution of motor vehicles density in 1970 in the observed US counties is positively correlated with breast cancer incidence rates (R(2) 0.8418, the correlation coefficient = 0.9175) in 1980-1995. Because both the time trend and geographic pattern are associated with breast cancer incidence rates, further studies on the relationship between breast cancer and air pollution are needed.

Beware of ligand efficiency (LE): understanding LE data in modeling structure-activity and structure-economy relationships.

PubMed

Polanski, Jaroslaw; Tkocz, Aleksandra; Kucia, Urszula

2017-09-11

On the one hand, ligand efficiency (LE) and the binding efficiency index (BEI), which are binding properties (B) averaged versus the heavy atom count (HAC: LE) or molecular weight (MW: BEI), have recently been declared a novel universal tool for drug design. On the other hand, questions have been raised about the mathematical validity of the LE approach. In fact, neither the critics nor the advocates are precise enough to provide a generally understandable and accepted chemistry of the LE metrics. In particular, this refers to the puzzle of the LE trends for small and large molecules. In this paper, we explain the chemistry and mathematics of the LE type of data. Because LE is a weight metrics related to binding per gram, its hyperbolic decrease with an increasing number of heavy atoms can be easily understood by its 1/MW dependency. Accordingly, we analyzed how this influences the LE trends for ligand-target binding, economic big data or molecular descriptor data. In particular, we compared the trends for the thermodynamic ∆G data of a series of ligands that interact with 14 different target classes, which were extracted from the BindingDB database with the market prices of a commercial compound library of ca. 2.5 mln synthetic building blocks. An interpretation of LE and BEI that clearly explains the observed trends for these parameters are presented here for the first time. Accordingly, we show that the main misunderstanding of the chemical meaning of the BEI and LE parameters is their interpretation as molecular descriptors that are connected with a single molecule, while binding is a statistical effect in which a population of ligands limits the formation of ligand-receptor complexes. Therefore, LE (BEI) should not be interpreted as a molecular (physicochemical) descriptor that is connected with a single molecule but as a property (binding per gram). Accordingly, the puzzle of the surprising behavior of LE is explained by the 1/MW dependency. This effect clearly explains the hyperbolic LE trend not as a real increase in binding potency but as a physical limitation due to the different population of ligands with different MWs in a 1 g sample available for the formation of ligand-receptor complexes. Graphical abstract .

National and sub-national burden of breast cancer in Iran; 1990-2013.

PubMed

Naderimagham, Shohreh; Alipour, Sadaf; Djalalinia, Shirin; Kasaeian, Amir; Noori, Atefeh; Rahimzadeh, Shadi; Modirian, Mitra; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Etemad, Kourosh; Jamshidi, Hamid Reza; Farzadfar, Fashad

2014-12-01

Estimating the burden of diseases, injuries and major risk factors is necessary for adopting appropriate health policies in every country, and this paper aims to explain the study protocol of national and sub-national burden of breast cancer in Iran from 1990 to 2013. We will perform a systematic review of the confirmed databases and literature to gather data on breast cancer epidemiology in Iran. The definitions, data sources, organizing the team, methods of data gathering and data generating will be explained in this paper. The methodology of estimating the trend of prevalence, years of life lost due to premature death (YLLs), years of life lost due to disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years lost (DALYs) of breast cancer by age groups, provinces and probable inequalities will be explained. We will tackle possible data problems due to the lack of data points on provinces and years and also geographical misalignment by using two advanced statistical methods, namely Bayesian autoregressive multilevel and Spatio-temporal models. Trend estimation will be reported using these two models together with uncertainty intervals. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of breast cancer and its specific pattern in Iran. The results will help policy makers to know the trend of prevalence, the distribution, and the inequalities of breast cancer in Iran to allocate resources in a better way.

Trends In Nutrient and Sediment Concentrations and Loads In Major River Basins of the South-Central United States, 1993-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rebich, Richard A.; Demcheck, Dennis K.

2008-01-01

Nutrient and sediment data collected at 115 sites by Federal and State agencies from 1993 to 2004 were analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey to determine trends in concentrations and loads for selected rivers and streams that drain into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from the south-central United States, specifically from the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf Basins. Trends observed in the study area were compared to determine potential regional patterns and to determine cause-effect relations with trends in hydrologic and human-induced factors such as nutrient sources, streamflow, and implementation of best management practices. Secondary objectives included calculation of loads and yields for the study period as a basis for comparing the delivery of nutrients and sediment to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from the various rivers within the study area. In addition, loads were assessed at seven selected sites for the period 1980-2004 to give hydrologic perspective to trends in loads observed during 1993-2004. Most study sites (about 64 percent) either had no trends or decreasing trends in streamflow during the study period. The regional pattern of decreasing trends in streamflow during the study period appeared to correspond to moist conditions at the beginning of the study period and the influence of three drought periods during the study period, of which the most extreme was in 2000. Trend tests were completed for ammonia at 49 sites, for nitrite plus nitrate at 69 sites, and for total nitrogen at 41 sites. For all nitrogen constituents analyzed, no trends were observed at half or more of the sites. No regional trend patterns could be confirmed because there was poor spatial representation of the trend sites. Decreasing trends in flow-adjusted concentrations of ammonia were observed at 25 sites. No increasing trends in concentrations of ammonia were noted at any sites. Flow-adjusted concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate decreased at 7 sites and increased at14 sites. Flow-adjusted concentrations of total nitrogen decreased at 2 sites and increased at 12 sites. Improvements to municipal wastewater treatment facilities contributed to the decline of ammonia concentrations at selected sites. Notable increasing trends in nitrite plus nitrate and total nitrogen at selected study sites were attributed to both point and nonpointsources. Trend patterns in total nitrogen generally followed trend patterns in nitrite plus nitrate, which was understandable given that nitrite plus nitrate loads generally were 70-90 percent of the total nitrogen loads at most sites. Population data were used as a surrogate to understand the relation between changes in point sources and nutrient trends because data from wastewater treatment plants were inconsistent for this study area. Although population increased throughout the study area during the study period, there was no observed relation between increasing trends in nitrogen in study area streams and increasing trends in population. With respect to other nitrogen sources, statistical results did suggest that increasing trends in nitrogen could be related to increasing trends in nitrogen from either commercial fertilizer use and/or land application of manure. Loads of ammonia, nitrite plus nitrate, and total nitrogen decreased during the study period, but some trends in nitrogen loads were part of long-term decreases since 1980. For example, ammonia loads were shown to decrease at nearly all sites over the past decade, but at selected sites, these decreasing trends were part of much longer trends since 1980. The Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers contributed the highest nitrogen loads to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as expected; however, nitrogen yields from smaller rivers had similar or higher yields than yields from the Mississippi River. Trend tests were completed for orthophosphorus at 34 sites and for total phosphorus at 52 sites. No trends were observed in abo

Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics Study on the Interactions between Carboxylate Ions and Metal Ions in Water.

PubMed

Mehandzhiyski, Aleksandar Y; Riccardi, Enrico; van Erp, Titus S; Trinh, Thuat T; Grimes, Brian A

2015-08-20

The interaction between a carboxylate anion (deprotonated propanoic acid) and the divalent Mg(2+), Ca(2+), Sr(2+), Ba(2+) metal ions is studied via ab initio molecular dynamics. The main focus of the study is the selectivity of the carboxylate-metal ion interaction in aqueous solution. The interaction is modeled by explicitly accounting for the solvent molecules on a DFT level. The hydration energies of the metal ions along with their diffusion and mobility coefficients are determined and a trend correlated with their ionic radius is found. Subsequently, a series of 16 constrained molecular dynamics simulations for every ion is performed, and the interaction free energy is obtained from thermodynamic integration of the forces between the metal ion and the carboxylate ion. The results indicate that the magnesium ion interacts most strongly with the carboxylate, followed by calcium, strontium, and barium. Because the interaction free energy is not enough to explain the selectivity of the reaction observed experimentally, more detailed analysis is performed on the simulation trajectories to understand the steric changes in the reaction complex during dissociation. The solvent dynamics appear to play an important role during the dissociation of the complex and also in the observed selectivity behavior of the divalent ions.

Selective Methylation: an Incorrect Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Shugart, Lee

1976-01-01

“Selective methylation,” a hypothesis proposed to explain the discrepancy found in the degree of methyl deficiency of transfer ribonucleic acid, cannot be explained on the basis of some biological phenomenon. PMID:770445

Modelling dengue fever risk in the State of Yucatan, Mexico using regional-scale satellite-derived sea surface temperature.

PubMed

Laureano-Rosario, Abdiel E; Garcia-Rejon, Julian E; Gomez-Carro, Salvador; Farfan-Ale, Jose A; Muller-Karger, Frank E

2017-08-01

Accurately predicting vector-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, is essential for communities worldwide. Changes in environmental parameters such as precipitation, air temperature, and humidity are known to influence dengue fever dynamics. Furthermore, previous studies have shown how oceanographic variables, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related sea surface temperature from the Pacific Ocean, influences dengue fever in the Americas. However, literature is lacking on the use of regional-scale satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) to assess its relationship with dengue fever in coastal areas. Data on confirmed dengue cases, demographics, precipitation, and air temperature were collected. Incidence of weekly dengue cases was examined. Stepwise multiple regression analyses (AIC model selection) were used to assess which environmental variables best explained increased dengue incidence rates. SST, minimum air temperature, precipitation, and humidity substantially explained 42% of the observed variation (r 2 =0.42). Infectious diseases are characterized by the influence of past cases on current cases and results show that previous dengue cases alone explained 89% of the variation. Ordinary least-squares analyses showed a positive trend of 0.20±0.03°C in SST from 2006 to 2015. An important element of this study is to help develop strategic recommendations for public health officials in Mexico by providing a simple early warning capability for dengue incidence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Perception of HIV/AIDS and Low Self-Control Trait: Explaining Preventative Behaviors Among Iranian University Students

PubMed Central

Esmaeilzadeh, Safooreh; Allahverdipour, Hamid; Fathi, Behrouz; Shirzadi, Shayesteh

2016-01-01

Background: In spite of developed countries there are progressive trend about HIV/AIDS and its’ aspects of transmission in the low socio-economic societies. The aim of this was to explain the youth's behavior in adopting HIV/AIDS related preventive behaviors in a sample of Iranian university students by emphasizing on fear appeals approaches alongside examining the role of self-control trait for explaining adoption on danger or fear control processes based on Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM). Methods: A sample of 156 randomly selected university students in Jolfa, Iran was recruited in a predictive cross-sectional study by application of a researcher-designed questionnaire through self-report data collection manner. Sexual high risk behaviors, the EPPM variables, self-control trait, and general self-efficacy were measured as theoretical framework. Results: Findings indicated that 31.3% of participants were in the fear control process versus 68.7% in danger control about HIV/AIDS and also the presence of multi-sex partners and amphetamine consumption amongst the participants. Low self-control trait and low perceived susceptibility significantly were related to having a history of multi-sex partners while high level of self-efficacy significantly increased the probability of condom use. Conclusion: Findings of the study were indicative of the protective role of high level of self-control, perceived susceptibility and self-efficacy factors on youth's high-risk behaviors and their preventative skills as well. PMID:26573026

Maternal pelvic dimensions and neonatal size: Implications for growth plasticity in early life as adaptation.

PubMed

Wells, Jonathan C K; Figueiroa, José N; Alves, Joao G

2017-01-01

Patterns of fetal growth predict non-communicable disease risk in adult life, but fetal growth variability appears to have a relatively weak association with maternal nutritional dynamics during pregnancy. This challenges the interpretation of fetal growth variability as 'adaptation'. We hypothesized that associations of maternal size and nutritional status with neonatal size are mediated by the dimensions of the maternal pelvis. We analysed data on maternal height, body mass index (BMI) and pelvic dimensions (conjugate, inter-spinous and inter-cristal diameters) and neonatal gestational age, weight, length, thorax girth and head girth ( n = 224). Multiple regression analysis was used to identify independent maternal predictors of neonatal size, and the mediating role of neonatal head girth in these associations. Pelvic dimensions displaced maternal BMI as a predictor of birth weight, explaining 11.6% of the variance. Maternal conjugate and inter-spinous diameters predicted neonatal length, thorax girth and head girth, whereas inter-cristal diameter only predicted neonatal length. Associations of pelvic dimensions with birth length, but not birth weight, were mediated by neonatal head girth. Pelvic dimensions predicted neonatal size better than maternal BMI, and these associations were mostly independent of maternal height. Sensitivity of fetal growth to pelvic dimensions reduces the risk of cephalo-pelvic disproportion, potentially a strong selective pressure during secular trends in height. Selection on fetal adaptation to relatively inflexible components of maternal phenotype, rather than directly to external ecological conditions, may help explain high levels of growth plasticity during late fetal life and early infancy.

Parallel altitudinal clines reveal trends in adaptive evolution of genome size in Zea mays

PubMed Central

Berg, Jeremy J.; Birchler, James A.; Grote, Mark N.; Lorant, Anne; Quezada, Juvenal

2018-01-01

While the vast majority of genome size variation in plants is due to differences in repetitive sequence, we know little about how selection acts on repeat content in natural populations. Here we investigate parallel changes in intraspecific genome size and repeat content of domesticated maize (Zea mays) landraces and their wild relative teosinte across altitudinal gradients in Mesoamerica and South America. We combine genotyping, low coverage whole-genome sequence data, and flow cytometry to test for evidence of selection on genome size and individual repeat abundance. We find that population structure alone cannot explain the observed variation, implying that clinal patterns of genome size are maintained by natural selection. Our modeling additionally provides evidence of selection on individual heterochromatic knob repeats, likely due to their large individual contribution to genome size. To better understand the phenotypes driving selection on genome size, we conducted a growth chamber experiment using a population of highland teosinte exhibiting extensive variation in genome size. We find weak support for a positive correlation between genome size and cell size, but stronger support for a negative correlation between genome size and the rate of cell production. Reanalyzing published data of cell counts in maize shoot apical meristems, we then identify a negative correlation between cell production rate and flowering time. Together, our data suggest a model in which variation in genome size is driven by natural selection on flowering time across altitudinal clines, connecting intraspecific variation in repetitive sequence to important differences in adaptive phenotypes. PMID:29746459

Scheduling for Locality in Shared-Memory Multiprocessors

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-05-01

Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree ’)iIC Q(JALfryT INSPECTED 5 DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY I Accesion For Supervised by NTIS CRAM... architecture on parallel program performance, explain the implications of this trend on popular parallel programming models, and propose system software to 0...decomoosition and scheduling algorithms. I. SUIUECT TERMS IS. NUMBER OF PAGES shared-memory multiprocessors; architecture trends; loop 110 scheduling

Explaining Changes in the Patterns of Black Suicide in the United States from 1981 to 2002: An Age, Cohort, and Period Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joe, Sean

2006-01-01

To explore the different trends of suicide incidence among Blacks and possible contributing factors, the current study compared national epidemiologic data of suicide in the United States from 1981 to 2002. For the first time, period and birth-cohort effects on the incidence trends of Black suicide were evaluated using an age-period-cohort…

Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Koopman, C; Vaartjes, I; Blokstra, A; Verschuren, W M M; Visser, M; Deeg, D J H; Bots, M L; van Dis, I

2016-08-19

Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD. Data were obtained from five data sources including several large scale population based surveys, cohort studies and general practitioner registers between 1988 and 2012. We applied linear regression models to age-standardized time trends to test for statistical significant trends. Analyses were stratified by sex and age (younger <65 and older ≥65 years adults). The results demonstrated favourable trends in smoking (except in older women) and physical activity (except in older men). Unfavourable trends were found for body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus prevalence. Although systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol trends were favourable for older persons, SBP and total cholesterol remained stable in younger persons. Four out of six risk factors for CHD showed a favourable or stable trend. The rise in diabetes mellitus and BMI is worrying with respect to CHD morbidity and mortality.

Contaminant trends in lake trout and walleye from the Laurentian Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeVault, David S.; Hesselberg, Robert J.; Rodgers, Paul W.; Feist, Timothy J.

1996-01-01

Trends in PCBs, DDT, and other contaminants have been monitored in Great Lakes lake trout and walleye since the 1970s using composite samples of whole fish. Dramatic declines have been observed in concentrations of PCB, ΣDDT, dieldrin, and oxychlordane, with declines initially following first order loss kinetics. Mean PCB concentrations in Lake Michigan lake trout increased from 13 μg/g in 1972 to 23 μg/g in 1974, then declined to 2.6 μg/g by 1986. Between 1986 and 1992 there was little change in concentration, with 3.5 μg/g observed in 1992. ΣDDT in Lake Michigan trout followed a similar trend, decreasing from 19.2 μg/g in 1970 to 1.1 μg/g in 1986, and 1.2 μg/g in 1992. Similar trends were observed for PCBs and ΣDDT in lake trout from Lakes Superior, Huron and Ontario. Concentrations of both PCB and ΣDDT in Lake Erie walleye declined between 1977 and 1982, after which concentrations were relatively constant through 1990. When originally implemented it was assumed that trends in the mean contaminant concentrations in open-lake fish would serve as cost effective surrogates to trends in the water column. While water column data are still extremely limited it appears that for PCBs in lakes Michigan and Superior, trends in lake trout do reasonably mimic those in the water column over the long term. Hypotheses to explain the trends in contaminant concentrations are briefly reviewed. The original first order loss kinetics used to describe the initial decline do not explain the more recent leveling off of contaminant concentrations. Recent theories have examined the possibilities of multiple contaminant pools. We suggest another hypothesis, that changes in the food web may have resulted in increased bioaccumulation. However, a preliminary exploration of this hypothesis using a change point analysis was inconclusive.

Pesticide trends in major rivers of the United States, 1992-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Martin, Jeffrey D.

2014-01-01

This report is part of a series of pesticide trend assessments led by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. This assessment focuses on major rivers of various sizes throughout the United States that have large watersheds with a range of land uses, changes in pesticide use, changes in management practices, and natural influences typical of the regions being drained. Trends were assessed at 59 sites for 40 pesticides and pesticide degradates during each of three overlapping periods: 1992–2001, 1997–2006, and 2001–10. In addition to trends in concentration, trends in agricultural-use intensity (agricultural use) were also assessed at 57 of the sites for 35 parent compounds with agricultural uses during the same three periods. The SEAWAVE-Q model was used to analyze trends in concentration, and parametric survival regression for interval-censored data was used to assess trends in agricultural use. All trends are provided in downloadable electronic files. A subset of 39 sites was chosen to represent non-nested, generally independent basins for a national analysis of pesticide and agricultural-use trends for the most prevalent pesticides (15 pesticides and 2 degradation products). Graphical and numerical results are presented to provide a national overview of concentration and use trends. As another perspective on understanding pesticide concentration trends in large rivers in relation to multiple tributary watersheds, this report also presents a detailed assessment of concentration and use trends for simazine, metolachlor, atrazine, deethylatrazine, and diazinon for a set of 17 nested sites in the Mississippi River Basin (including the Ohio and Missouri River Basins), for the second and third trend periods. Pesticides strongly dominated by agricultural use—cyanazine, metolachlor, atrazine, and alachlor—had widespread agreement between concentration trends and agricultural-use trends. Pesticides with substantial use in agricultural and urban applications—simazine, tebuthiuron, Dacthal, pendimethalin, chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, fipronil, carbofuran, and carbaryl—had concentration trends that were mostly explained by a combination of agricultural-use trends and concentration trends in urban streams that were evaluated in a separate companion study. The importance of the urban stream trends for explaining concentration trends in major rivers indicates the significance of nonagricultural uses of some pesticides to concentrations in major rivers despite the much smaller area of urban land use compared to agriculture. Deethylatrazine, a degradate of atrazine, was the only pesticide compound assessed that had frequent occurrences during 1997–2006 and 2001–10 of concentration trends in the opposite direction of use trends (atrazine use). The nested analysis for the Mississippi River indicates that most trends observed in the largest rivers—multiple Mississippi River sites, the Ohio River, and the Missouri River—are consistent with streamflow contributions and concentration trends observed at tributary sites. Streamflow (incorporated into the trend model and shown in the nested basin analysis), trends in agricultural use of pesticides (quantified in this report), and urban use of pesticides (represented by concentration trends in a companion study of urban streams) are all important influences on pesticide concentrations in streams and rivers. Consideration of these influences is vital to understanding trends in pesticide concentrations.

Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

2009-09-01

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

Social Indicators, 1973. Selected Statistics on Social Conditions and Trends in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Office of Management and Budget, Washington, DC. Statistical Policy Div.

The book contains statistics selected and organized to describe social conditions and trends in the United States. Most of the data was compiled through Federal Government surveys. The following eight major social areas are examined: health, public safety, education, employment income, housing, leisure and recreation, and population. Within each…

Early Mathematics Achievement Trajectories: English-Language Learner and Native English-Speaker Estimates, Using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey

PubMed Central

Roberts, Greg; Bryant, Diane

2012-01-01

This study used data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey, Kindergarten Class of 1998 –1999, to (a) estimate mathematics achievement trends through 5th grade in the population of students who are English-language proficient by the end of kindergarten, (b) compare trends across primary language groups within this English-language proficient group, (c) evaluate the effect of low socioeconomic status (SES) for English-language proficient students and within different primary language groups, and (d) estimate language-group trends in specific mathematics skill areas. The group of English-language proficient English-language learners (ELLs) was disaggregated into native Spanish speakers and native speakers of Asian languages, the 2 most prevalent groups of ELLs in the United States. Results of multilevel latent variable growth modeling suggest that primary language may be less salient than SES in explaining the mathematics achievement of English-language proficient ELLs. The study also found that mathematics-related school readiness is a key factor in explaining subsequent achievement differences and that the readiness gap is prevalent across the range of mathematics-related skills. PMID:21574702

Phosphorus and nitrogen fluxes carried by 21 Finnish agricultural rivers in 1985-2006.

PubMed

Ekholm, Petri; Rankinen, Katri; Rita, Hannu; Räike, Antti; Sjöblom, Heidi; Raateland, Arjen; Vesikko, Ljudmila; Cano Bernal, José Enrique; Taskinen, Antti

2015-04-01

The Finnish Agri-Environmental Programme aims to reduce nutrient load to waters. Using national monitoring data, we estimated the agricultural load (incl. natural background) of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) transported by 21 Finnish rivers to the northern Baltic Sea and analysed the flow-adjusted trends in the loads and concentrations from 1985 to 2006. We also related the loads to spatial and temporal patterns in catchment and agricultural characteristics. Agricultural load of TN increased, especially in the rivers discharging into the Bothnian Bay, while the load of TP decreased in most of the rivers, except those discharging into the Archipelago Sea. The trends may partly be related to a decrease in grassed area (TP, TN) and increased mineralisation (TN), but the available data on catchment and agricultural characteristics did not fully explain the observed pattern. Our study showed that data arising from relatively infrequent monitoring may prove useful for analysing long-term trend. The mutual correlation among the explaining variables hampered the analysis of the load generating factors.

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

A role for relaxed selection in the evolution of the language capacity

PubMed Central

Deacon, Terrence W.

2010-01-01

Explaining the extravagant complexity of the human language and our competence to acquire it has long posed challenges for natural selection theory. To answer his critics, Darwin turned to sexual selection to account for the extreme development of language. Many contemporary evolutionary theorists have invoked incredibly lucky mutation or some variant of the assimilation of acquired behaviors to innate predispositions in an effort to explain it. Recent evodevo approaches have identified developmental processes that help to explain how complex functional synergies can evolve by Darwinian means. Interestingly, many of these developmental mechanisms bear a resemblance to aspects of Darwin's mechanism of natural selection, often differing only in one respect (e.g., form of duplication, kind of variation, competition/cooperation). A common feature is an interplay between processes of stabilizing selection and processes of relaxed selection at different levels of organism function. These may play important roles in the many levels of evolutionary process contributing to language. Surprisingly, the relaxation of selection at the organism level may have been a source of many complex synergistic features of the human language capacity, and may help explain why so much language information is “inherited” socially. PMID:20445088

{sup 13}CO/C{sup 18}O Gradients across the Disks of Nearby Spiral Galaxies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiménez-Donaire, María J.; Cormier, Diane; Bigiel, Frank

We use the IRAM Large Program EMPIRE and new high-resolution ALMA data to measure {sup 13}CO(1-0)/C{sup 18}O(1-0) intensity ratios across nine nearby spiral galaxies. These isotopologues of {sup 12}CO are typically optically thin across most of the area in galaxy disks, and this ratio allows us to gauge their relative abundance due to chemistry or stellar nucleosynthesis effects. Resolved {sup 13}CO/C{sup 18}O gradients across normal galaxies have been rare due to the faintness of these lines. We find a mean {sup 13}CO/C{sup 18}O ratio of 6.0 ± 0.9 for the central regions of our galaxies. This agrees well with resultsmore » in the Milky Way, but differs from results for starburst galaxies (3.4 ± 0.9) and ultraluminous infrared galaxies (1.1 ± 0.4). In our sample, the {sup 13}CO/C{sup 18}O ratio consistently increases with increasing galactocentric radius and decreases with increasing star formation rate surface density. These trends could be explained if the isotopic abundances are altered by fractionation; the sense of the trends also agrees with those expected for carbon and oxygen isotopic abundance variations due to selective enrichment by massive stars.« less

Selectivity trend of gas separation through nanoporous graphene

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Hongjun; Chen, Zhongfang; Dai, Sheng

2015-04-15

By means of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, we demonstrate that porous graphene can efficiently separate gases according to their molecular sizes. The flux sequence from the classical MD simulation is H{sub 2}>CO{sub 2}≫N{sub 2}>Ar>CH{sub 4}, which generally follows the trend in the kinetic diameters. This trend is also confirmed from the fluxes based on the computed free energy barriers for gas permeation using the umbrella sampling method and kinetic theory of gases. Both brute-force MD simulations and free-energy calcualtions lead to the flux trend consistent with experiments. Case studies of two compositions of CO{sub 2}/N{sub 2} mixtures further demonstrate themore » separation capability of nanoporous graphene. - Graphical abstract: Classical molecular dynamics simulations show the flux trend of H{sub 2}>CO{sub 2}≫N{sub 2}>Ar>CH{sub 4} for their permeation through a porous graphene, in excellent agreement with a recent experiment. - Highlights: • Classical MD simulations show the flux trend of H{sub 2}>CO{sub 2}≫N{sub 2}>Ar>CH{sub 4} for their permeation through a porous graphene. • Free energy calculations yield permeation barriers for those gases. • Selectivities for several gas pairs are estimated from the free-energy barriers and the kinetic theory of gases. • The selectivity trend is in excellent agreement with a recent experiment.« less

Research on dental implant and its industrialization stage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dongjoon, Yang; Sukyoung, Kim

2017-02-01

Bone cell attachment to Ti implant surfaces is the most concerned issue in the clinical implant dentistry. Many attempts to achieve the fast and strong integration between bone and implant have been tried in many ways, such as selection of materials (for example, Ti, ZrO2), shape design of implant (for example, soft tissue level, bone level, taped or conical, etc), and surface modification of implants (for example, roughed. coated, hybrid), etc. Among them, a major consideration is the surface design of dental implants. The surface with proper structural characteristics promotes or induces the desirable responses of cells and tissues. To obtain such surface which has desirable cell and tissue response, a variety of surface modification techniques has been developed and employed for many years. In this review, the method and trend of surface modification will be introduced and explained in terms of the surface topography and chemistry of dental implants.

MAIN CONTROVERSIES IN THE NONOPERATIVE MANAGEMENT OF BLUNT SPLENIC INJURIES.

PubMed

Carlotto, Jorge Roberto Marcante; Lopes-Filho, Gaspar de Jesus; Colleoni-Neto, Ramiro

2016-03-01

The nonoperative management of traumatic spleen injuries is the modality of choice in patients with blunt abdominal trauma and hemodynamic stability. However, there are still questions about the treatment indication in some groups of patients, as well as its follow-up. Update knowledge about the spleen injury. Was performed review of the literature on the nonoperative management of blunt injuries of the spleen in databases: Cochrane Library, Medline and SciELO. Were evaluated articles in English and Portuguese, between 1955 and 2014, using the headings "splenic injury, nonoperative management and blunt abdominal trauma". Were selected 35 articles. Most of them were recommendation grade B and C. The spleen traumatic injuries are frequent and its nonoperative management is a worldwide trend. The available literature does not explain all aspects on treatment. The authors developed a systematization of care based on the best available scientific evidence to better treat this condition.

Crop weather models of barley and spring wheat yield for agrophysical units in North Dakota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leduc, S. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Models based on multiple regression were developed to estimate barley yield and spring wheat yield from weather data for Agrophysical units(APU) in North Dakota. The predictor variables are derived from monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation data at meteorological stations in the cooperative network. The models are similar in form to the previous models developed for Crop Reporting Districts (CRD). The trends and derived variables were the same and the approach to select the significant predictors was similar to that used in developing the CRD models. The APU models show sight improvements in some of the statistics of the models, e.g., explained variation. These models are to be independently evaluated and compared to the previously evaluated CRD models. The comparison will indicate the preferred model area for this application, i.e., APU or CRD.

MAIN CONTROVERSIES IN THE NONOPERATIVE MANAGEMENT OF BLUNT SPLENIC INJURIES

PubMed Central

CARLOTTO, Jorge Roberto Marcante; LOPES-FILHO, Gaspar de Jesus; COLLEONI-NETO, Ramiro

2016-01-01

Introduction : The nonoperative management of traumatic spleen injuries is the modality of choice in patients with blunt abdominal trauma and hemodynamic stability. However, there are still questions about the treatment indication in some groups of patients, as well as its follow-up. Aim: Update knowledge about the spleen injury. Method : Was performed review of the literature on the nonoperative management of blunt injuries of the spleen in databases: Cochrane Library, Medline and SciELO. Were evaluated articles in English and Portuguese, between 1955 and 2014, using the headings "splenic injury, nonoperative management and blunt abdominal trauma". Results : Were selected 35 articles. Most of them were recommendation grade B and C. Conclusion : The spleen traumatic injuries are frequent and its nonoperative management is a worldwide trend. The available literature does not explain all aspects on treatment. The authors developed a systematization of care based on the best available scientific evidence to better treat this condition. PMID:27120744

Current Trends in Nursing Informatics: Results of an International Survey.

PubMed

Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Alhuwail, Dari; Ali, Samira; Badger, Martha K; Eler, Gabrielle Jacklin; Georgsson, Mattias; Islam, Tasneem; Jeon, Eunjoo; Jung, Hyunggu; Kuo, Chiu-Hsiang; Lewis, Adrienne; Pruinelli, Lisiane; Ronquillo, Charlene; Sarmiento, Raymond Francis; Sommer, Janine; Tayaben, Jude L; Topaz, Maxim

2016-01-01

Nursing informatics (NI) can help provide effective and safe healthcare. This study aimed to describe current research trends in NI. In the summer 2015, the IMIA-NI Students Working Group created and distributed an online international survey of the current NI trends. A total of 402 responses were submitted from 44 countries. We identified a top five NI research areas: standardized terminologies, mobile health, clinical decision support, patient safety and big data research. NI research funding was considered to be difficult to acquire by the respondents. Overall, current NI research on education, clinical practice, administration and theory is still scarce, with theory being the least common. Further research is needed to explain the impact of these trends and the needs from clinical practice.

Trends in Streamflow and Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Concentrations and Loads in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes River Basins, 1975-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, David L.; Robertson, Dale M.; Hall, David W.; Saad, David A.

2009-01-01

Many actions have been taken to reduce nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations and the amount of nutrients and sediment transported in streams as a result of the Clean Water Act and subsequent regulations. This report assesses how nutrient and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in selected streams have changed during recent years to determine if these actions have been successful. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in concentrations and trends in loads from 1993 to 2004 were computed for total nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, total organic nitrogen plus ammonia, dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus, total suspended material (total suspended solids or suspended sediment), and total suspended sediment for 49 sites in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes Basins. Changes in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total suspended-material loads were examined from 1975 to 2003 at six sites to provide a longer term context for the data examined from 1993 to 2004. Flow-adjusted trends in total nitrogen concentrations at 19 of 24 sites showed tendency toward increasing concentrations, and overall trends in total nitrogen concentrations at 16 of the 24 sites showed a general tendency toward increasing concentrations. The trends in these flow-adjusted total nitrogen concentrations are related to the changes in fertilizer nitrogen applications. Flow-adjusted trends in dissolved ammonia concentrations from 1993 to 2004 showed a widespread tendency toward decreasing concentrations. The widespread, downward trends in dissolved ammonia concentrations indicate that some of the ammonia reduction goals of the Clean Water Act are being met. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in total organic plus ammonia nitrogen concentrations from 1993 to 2004 did not show a distinct spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved nitrite plus nitrate concentrations from 1993 to 2004 also did not show a distinct spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus concentrations were upward at 24 of 40 sites. Overall trends in total phosphorus concentrations were mixed and showed no spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved phosphorus concentrations were consistently downward at all of the sites in the eastern part of the basins studied. The reduction in phosphorus fertilizer use and manure production east of the Mississippi River could explain most of the observed trends in dissolved phosphorus. Flow-adjusted trends in total suspended-material concentrations showed distinct spatial patterns of increasing tendencies throughout the western part of the basins studied and in Illinois and decreasing concentrations throughout most of Wisconsin, Iowa, and in the eastern part of the basins studied. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus were strongly related to the flow-adjusted trends in suspended materials. The trends in the flow-adjusted suspended-sediment concentrations from 1993 to 2004 resembled those for suspended materials. The long-term, nonmonotonic trends in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended-material loads for 1975 to 2003 were described by local regression, LOESS, smoothing for six sites. The statistical significance of those trends cannot be determined; however, the long-term changes found for annual streamflow and load data indicate that the monotonic trends from 1993 to 2004 should not be extrapolated backward in time.

Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species’ distribution and abundance changes

PubMed Central

Palmer, Georgina; Hill, Jane K.; Brereton, Tom M.; Brooks, David R.; Chapman, Jason W.; Fox, Richard; Oliver, Tom H.; Thomas, Chris D.

2015-01-01

The responses of animals and plants to recent climate change vary greatly from species to species, but attempts to understand this variation have met with limited success. This has led to concerns that predictions of responses are inherently uncertain because of the complexity of interacting drivers and biotic interactions. However, we show for an exemplar group of 155 Lepidoptera species that about 60% of the variation among species in their abundance trends over the past four decades can be explained by species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Distribution changes were less well predicted, but nonetheless, up to 53% of the variation was explained. We found that species vary in their overall sensitivity to climate and respond to different components of the climate despite ostensibly experiencing the same climate changes. Hence, species have undergone different levels of population “forcing” (exposure), driving variation among species in their national-scale abundance and distribution trends. We conclude that variation in species’ responses to recent climate change may be more predictable than previously recognized. PMID:26601276

Maternal exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study: Time trends of selected exposures.

PubMed

Dawson, April L; Razzaghi, Hilda; Arth, Annelise; Canfield, Mark A; Parker, Samantha E; Reefhuis, Jennita

2015-08-01

Our objective was to describe time trends in selected pregnancy exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS). We analyzed data from the NBDPS, a multi-site case-control study of major birth defects, for mothers of live-born infants without birth defects (controls), with an expected date of delivery (EDD) from 1998 to 2011. Mothers from the 10 participating centers across the United States were interviewed by phone between 6 weeks and 2 years after the EDD. We focused on maternal race/ethnicity and five maternal risk factors: obesity, use of folic acid-containing multivitamins, opioid analgesics, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and loratadine because of their prevalence of use and some reports of associations with major birth defects. Prevalence time trends were examined using the Kendall's τβ test statistic. The exposure trend analysis included 11,724 control mothers with EDDs from 1998 to 2011. We observed a significant increase in obesity prevalence among control mothers, as well as use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and loratadine. We also observed an increase in periconceptional use of folic acid-containing multivitamins. Some of the time trends varied by race/ethnicity. No remarkable trend in the overall use of opioid analgesics was observed. The racial/ethnic distribution of mothers changed slightly during the study period. Long-term, population-based case-control studies continue to be an effective way to assess exposure-birth defects associations and provide guidance to health care providers. However, investigators examining rare outcomes covering many years of data collection need to be cognizant of time trends in exposures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC TRENDS 2017

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-05

The report has eight chapters: - Chapter 1 introduces the Transportation Services Index, a monthly summary of freight and passenger movement. - Chapter 2 explains what transportation contributes to the American economy. - Chapter 3 examines the costs...

Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

PubMed Central

Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

2016-01-01

Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784

Flood-rich and flood-poor periods in Spain in 1942-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

2016-04-01

Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Mediero et al. (2015) studied flood trends by using the longest streamflow records available in Europe. They found a decreasing trend in the Atlantic, Continental and Scandinavian regions. More specifically, Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in Spain in the period 1959-2009. Trends in flood series are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test applied to a given period. However, the result of the Mann-Kendall test can change in terms of the starting and ending year of the series. Flood oscillations can occur and flood-rich and flood-poor periods could condition the results, especially when they are located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to the longest series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. A flood-rich period in 1950-1970 and a flood-poor period in 1970-1990 are identified in most of the selected sites. The generalised decreasing trend in flood series found by Mediero et al. (2014) could be explained by a flood-rich period placed at the beginning of the series and a flood-poor period located at the end of the series. References: Mediero, L., Kjeldsen, T.R., Macdonald, N., Kohnova, S., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Wilson, D., Alburquerque, T., Blöschl, G., Bogdanowicz, E., Castellarin, A., Hall, J., Kobold, M., Kriauciuniene, J., Lang, M., Madsen, H., Onuşluel Gül, G., Perdigão, R.A.P., Roald, L.A., Salinas, J.L., Toumazis, A.D., Veijalainen, N., Óðinn Þórarinsson. Identification of coherent flood regions across Europe using the longest streamflow records, Journal of Hydrology, 528, 341-360, 2015. Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

Prevalence of obesity among Arab school children in Nazareth, Israel: comparison with national (Jewish) and international data.

PubMed

Ram, E; Marcus, O; Joubran, S; Abdo, B; Asal, N R

2013-12-01

Lack of published data. Absence of Ethnic specific data. Lack of focus on obesity prevention in Arab schools. First set of data on obesity for Arab children. Data will be used as reference data. Alert health/school official for intervention. Objective The objective is to produce the first set of obesity prevalence data and use the data as reference values of body mass index (BMI) trends for Arab children in Israel and compare with Jewish and international data. Methods A prevalence study was carried out in 2009 in which 4130 children aged 6-12, were selected from eight Arab sector schools representing the Nazareth Municipality. Height, weight and BMI measurements were obtained and presented by age, mean age, size, weight, gender and percentile. Appropriate epidemiological and statistical methods used for comparison. Results The obesity and overweight prevalence rates in Arab children by age ranges from 0% to 2.6% and 0% to 11.2%, respectively. Comparison with international and Jewish data revealed differences in almost all age groups but higher rates in Arabs, especially boys. Discussion The higher rates/trends in Arab children may be explained by more Arab women entering the workforce, increase in single-parent families and changes in food and physical activity environments. Conclusion Based on our data, we recommend either an ethnic-specific BMI reference curves and/or inclusion of Arab data in the Israeli data system. Research need to focus on reasons for the increase and interventions to reverse/slow the trend. © 2013 The Authors. Pediatric Obesity © 2013 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Time trends in disability pensioning for rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and soft tissue rheumatism in Norway 1968-97.

PubMed

Holte, Hilde H; Tambs, Kristian; Bjerkedal, Tor

2003-01-01

Disability pensioning with musculoskeletal diagnoses increased more than general disability pensioning in Norway during 1968-97. Incidences of disability pensioning for three main musculoskeletal diseases - rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and soft tissue rheumatism - during the period 1968-97 were assessed. Changes in incidence were related to changes in Norwegian society with respect to prevalence of these diseases, the number of individuals having high probability of disability pensioning for these diseases, the labour market and legal amendments that may have changed the probability of being granted a disability pension among these patients. Data on all new disability pensioners aged 50-66 years registered by the National Insurance Administration during 1968-97 and the total population of Norway excluding disability pensioners were used to calculate annual incidence rates of disability pension for the selected musculoskeletal diagnoses. The incidence of disability pension for soft tissue rheumatism and osteoarthritis increased during the study period, and both increased more than the incidence of disability pension in general. The incidence of disability pension for rheumatoid arthritis decreased when compared with disability pensioning in general. The year an upward or downward trend started is similar for osteoarthritis and soft tissue rheumatism for men and women in the age groups studied. Changes in prevalence of a disease seem to be an important factor in explaining differences in time trends of disability pensioning with different diagnoses. Changes in unemployment, female employment, number of manual workers or the legal system do not appear to be related to the increases in incidence of disability pensioning with musculoskeletal diseases.

Fluid catalytic cracking: recent developments on the grand old lady of zeolite catalysis.

PubMed

Vogt, E T C; Weckhuysen, B M

2015-10-21

Fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) is one of the major conversion technologies in the oil refinery industry. FCC currently produces the majority of the world's gasoline, as well as an important fraction of propylene for the polymer industry. In this critical review, we give an overview of the latest trends in this field of research. These trends include ways to make it possible to process either very heavy or very light crude oil fractions as well as to co-process biomass-based oxygenates with regular crude oil fractions, and convert these more complex feedstocks in an increasing amount of propylene and diesel-range fuels. After providing some general background of the FCC process, including a short history as well as details on the process, reactor design, chemical reactions involved and catalyst material, we will discuss several trends in FCC catalysis research by focusing on ways to improve the zeolite structure stability, propylene selectivity and the overall catalyst accessibility by (a) the addition of rare earth elements and phosphorus, (b) constructing hierarchical pores systems and (c) the introduction of new zeolite structures. In addition, we present an overview of the state-of-the-art micro-spectroscopy methods for characterizing FCC catalysts at the single particle level. These new characterization tools are able to explain the influence of the harsh FCC processing conditions (e.g. steam) and the presence of various metal poisons (e.g. V, Fe and Ni) in the crude oil feedstocks on the 3-D structure and accessibility of FCC catalyst materials.

Fluid catalytic cracking: recent developments on the grand old lady of zeolite catalysis

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) is one of the major conversion technologies in the oil refinery industry. FCC currently produces the majority of the world's gasoline, as well as an important fraction of propylene for the polymer industry. In this critical review, we give an overview of the latest trends in this field of research. These trends include ways to make it possible to process either very heavy or very light crude oil fractions as well as to co-process biomass-based oxygenates with regular crude oil fractions, and convert these more complex feedstocks in an increasing amount of propylene and diesel-range fuels. After providing some general background of the FCC process, including a short history as well as details on the process, reactor design, chemical reactions involved and catalyst material, we will discuss several trends in FCC catalysis research by focusing on ways to improve the zeolite structure stability, propylene selectivity and the overall catalyst accessibility by (a) the addition of rare earth elements and phosphorus, (b) constructing hierarchical pores systems and (c) the introduction of new zeolite structures. In addition, we present an overview of the state-of-the-art micro-spectroscopy methods for characterizing FCC catalysts at the single particle level. These new characterization tools are able to explain the influence of the harsh FCC processing conditions (e.g. steam) and the presence of various metal poisons (e.g. V, Fe and Ni) in the crude oil feedstocks on the 3-D structure and accessibility of FCC catalyst materials. PMID:26382875

Trends in wild food plants uses in Gorbeialdea (Basque Country).

PubMed

Menendez-Baceta, Gorka; Pardo-de-Santayana, Manuel; Aceituno-Mata, Laura; Tardío, Javier; Reyes-García, Victoria

2017-05-01

Despite wild food plants' potential nutritional and economic value, their knowledge and consumption is quickly decreasing throughout the world. We examine how the consideration that a wild plant use is within the cultural tradition of a given area relates to its consumption by analysing 1) current perception and 2) past and present use of six wild plants' food-uses, of which only three are locally perceived as being part of the local tradition. Research was conducted in Gorbeialdea, an area in the Basque Country with a clearly marked Basque identity opposed to the Spanish identity. Overall, there is a clear decrease in the knowledge and consumption of the selected uses and especially of the three uses acquired from local sources (i.e., the consumption of the raw leaves of Fagus sylvatica and Rumex acetosa and of the fruits of Pyrus cordata). The trend is likely driven by the disappearance of the traditional agrarian lifestyle. Among the uses not acquired from local sources, the use recently adopted from another Basque-speaking area (i.e., macerating the fruits of Prunus spinosa to elaborate a liqueur) is now considered part of the local tradition by young generations, whereas the use acquired from southern Spanish migrants (i.e., using Laurus nobilis leaves as condiments) is not. While lifestyle changes largely explain overall trends in wild edibles consumption, other cultural aspects -in our case study the stigmatization of a given source of information associated to cultural identity- might help shape which new uses of wild plants become embedded in local traditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in the Selection of TIAA-CREF Life-Annuity Income Options, 1978-1994.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Francis P.

1996-01-01

This issue describes the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association College Retirement Equities Fund (TIAA-CREF) life-annuity income options and traces the trends in their selection over a 17-year period, 1978-1994. Other income-related choices at or before retirement are also explored. The article emphasizes that participants in defined…

The retrospective analysis of bibliographical trends for nine biomedical engineering journals from 1999 to 2007.

PubMed

Foo, Jong Yong Abdiel

2009-07-01

For academic research outcomes, there is an increasing emphasis on the bibliometric scorings like the journal impact factor (JIF) when assessment of the quality of research is required. Currently, no known study has been conducted to explore the bibliographical trends of the biomedical engineering journals indexed by the annual Journal Citation Reports of the Thomson Scientific. In this study, the trends of nine reputable journals were selected and analyzed over a 9-year period (year 1999 to year 2007). The results show that the JIF rose exponentially for some journals (up to 597.0%) while for others, it shrank (down to -19.5%). A similar trend is observed for the citations trend over the same period and there was a significant increase in the number of citable articles published (> or =23.6%) in all the selected journals using year 1999 as the base year. However, journals which published significant more non-research articles (> or =10%) saw favorable subsequent effects on their citations. It is postulated that the changes in bibliographical trends can be classified as editorial and non-editorial influences. The retrospective impacts of these influences on the nine selected journals over the 9-year period were also discussed in this study.

Hardwood stumpage price trends in New England

Treesearch

D.F. Dennis; P.E. Sendak

1991-01-01

Stumpage price trends in New Hampshire and Vermont varied considerably among species and products. Real stumpage price trends, expressed in 1988 dollars using the Producer Price Index to remove the effect of inflation, are reported for selected species and products. Long-term (1964-1989) trends in average annual prices are reported for New Hampshire and short-term (...

Dressed for success.

PubMed

Shuttleworth, Ann

Nothing is more symbolic of nursing than its uniform. Reflecting rank, employer, social trends and even infection control policy--uniform changes since Nursing Times launched in 1905 provide a visual history of the profession, as Ann Shuttleworth explains.

Hungry for solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacPhee, Cait

2016-11-01

As obesity rates continue to rise in many parts of the world, Cait MacPhee explains how soft-matter physicists could help reverse the trend by crafting “functional” foods that promote feelings of fullness and satisfaction

Seasonality of selected surface water constituents in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida.

PubMed

Qian, Y; Migliaccio, K W; Wan, Y; Li, Y C; Chin, D

2007-01-01

Seasonality is often the major exogenous effect that must be compensated for or removed to discern trends in water quality. Our objective was to provide a methodological example of trend analysis using water quality data with seasonality. Selected water quality constituents from 1979 to 2004 at three monitoring stations in southern Florida were evaluated for seasonality. The seasonal patterns of flow-weighted and log-transformed concentrations were identified by applying side-by-side boxplots and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test (p < 0.05). Seasonal and annual trends were determined by trend analysis (Seasonal Kendall or Tobit procedure) using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Estimate TREND (ESTREND) program. Major water quality indicators (specific conductivity, turbidity, color, and chloride), except for turbidity at Station C24S49, exhibited significant seasonal patterns. Almost all nutrient species (NO(2)-N, NH(4)-N, total Kjeldahl N, PO(4)-P, and total P) had an identical seasonal pattern of concentrations significantly greater in the wet than in the dry season. Some water quality constituents were observed to exhibit significant annual or seasonal trends. In some cases, the overall annual trend was insignificant while opposing trends were present in different seasons. By evaluating seasonal trends separately from all data, constituents can be assessed providing a more accurate interpretation of water quality trends.

Demand characteristics, pre-test attitudes and time-on-task trends in the effects of chewing gum on attention and reported mood in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Allen, A P; Smith, A P

2012-10-01

Previous research has indicated that chewing gum enhances reported alertness, but has variable effects on attention. Demand characteristics may explain these effects. The current study investigated the effects of gum and demand characteristics on attention and reported mood over time. Participants completed measures of mood and attention, with and without chewing gum. To manipulate demand characteristics, they were told that the hypothesised effect of gum was either positive or negative, or no hypothesis was mentioned. Attitudes towards gum were assessed pre- and post-manipulation. Gum increased reported alertness; this effect was only significant for positive and neutral demand characteristics. Vigilance accuracy was reduced for chewing gum, but only in the fourth minute of the task, and gum reduced focussed attention accuracy, but only for the first 64 trials. Demand characteristics did not moderate time-on-task effects. Gum improved selective attention. A positive effect on response organisation was observed; this was significant when demand characteristics and pre-test attitudes to gum were both negative. The results suggest that demand characteristics moderate effects on self-reported alertness and response organisation, but cannot explain time-on-task effects or variable main effects on other aspects of attention. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fertility transition and adverse child sex ratio in districts of India.

PubMed

Mohanty, Sanjay K; Rajbhar, Mamta

2014-11-01

Demographic research in India over the last two decades has focused extensively on fertility change and gender bias at the micro-level, and less has been done at the district level. Using data from the Census of India 1991-2011 and other sources, this paper shows the broad pattern of fertility transition and trends in the child sex ratio in India, and examines the determinants of the child sex ratio at the district level. During 1991-2011, while the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined by 1.2 children per woman, the child sex ratio fell by 30 points in the districts of India. However, the reduction in fertility was slower in the high-fertility compared with the low-fertility districts. The gender differential in under-five mortality increased in many districts of India over the study period. The decline in the child sex ratio was higher in the transitional compared with the low-fertility districts. The transitional districts are at higher risk of a low child sex ratio due to an increased gender differential in mortality and increase in the practice of sex-selective abortions. The sex ratio at birth and gender differential in mortality explains one-third of the variation, while region alone explains a quarter of the variation in the child sex ratio in the districts of India.

Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainties in Estimating OMI Tropospheric Column NO2 Trend over The United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smeltzer, C. D.; Wang, Y.; Boersma, F.; Celarier, E. A.; Bucsela, E. J.

2013-12-01

We investigate the effects of retrieval radiation schemes and parameters on trend analysis using tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) vertical column density (VCD) measurements over the United States. Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) observations from 2005 through 2012 are used in this analysis. We investigated two radiation schemes, provided by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA TOMRAD) and Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI DAK). In addition, we analyzed trend dependence on radiation parameters, including surface albedo and viewing geometry. The cross-track mean VCD average difference is 10-15% between the two radiation schemes in 2005. As the OMI anomaly developed and progressively worsens, the difference between the two schemes becomes larger. Furthermore, applying surface albedo measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leads to increases of estimated NO2 VCD trends over high-emission regions. We find that the uncertainties of OMI-derived NO2 VCD trends can be reduced by up to a factor of 3 by selecting OMI cross-track rows on the basis of their performance over the ocean [see abstract figure]. Comparison of OMI tropospheric VCD trends to those estimated based on the EPA surface NO2 observations indicate using MODIS surface albedo data and a more narrow selection of OMI cross-track rows greatly improves the agreement of estimated trends between satellite and surface data. This figure shows the reduction of uncertainty in OMI NO2 trend by selecting OMI cross-track rows based on the performance over the ocean. With this technique, uncertainties within the seasonal trend may be reduced by a factor of 3 or more (blue) compared with only removing the anomalous rows: considering OMI cross-track rows 4-24 (red).

Trend analysis and selected summary statistics of annual mean streamflow for 38 selected long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Texas, water years 1916-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Barbie, Dana L.

2014-01-01

Selected summary statistics (L-moments) and estimates of respective sampling variances were computed for the 35 streamgages lacking statistically significant trends. From the L-moments and estimated sampling variances, weighted means or regional values were computed for each L-moment. An example application is included demonstrating how the L-moments could be used to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of annual mean streamflow.

Water-quality characteristics and trends for selected wells possibly influenced by wastewater disposal at the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 1981-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Linda C.; Bartholomay, Roy C.; Fisher, Jason C.; Maimer, Neil V.

2015-01-01

Volatile organic compound concentration trends were analyzed for nine aquifer wells. Trend test results indicated an increasing trend for carbon tetrachloride for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex Production Well for the period 1987–2012; however, trend analyses of data collected since 2005 show no statistically significant trend indicating that engineering practices designed to reduce movement of volatile organic compounds to the aquifer may be having a positive effect on the aquifer.

Could Trends in Time Children Spend with Parents Help Explain the Black-White Gap in Human Capital? Evidence from the American Time Use Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patterson, Richard W.

2017-01-01

It is widely believed that the time children spend with parents significantly impacts human capital formation. If time varies significantly between black and white children, this may help explain the large racial gap in test scores and wages. In this study, I use data from the American Time Use Survey to examine the patterns in the time black and…

Export of Terrestrially-Derived Organic Matter from the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico Sediments as Determined by Ultrahigh Resolution Mass Spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatcher, P.; Ware, S. A.; Vaughn, D.; Waggoner, D. C.; Bianchi, T. S.

2017-12-01

Sediment samples extending from the main channel of the Mississippi River to edge of the continental shelf of the Gulf of Mexico were extracted to recover humic acids from the organic matter and subjected to molecular level characterization by electrospray ionization coupled to Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (ESI-FTICR-MS). The data show that sedimentary organic matter at the river mouth contains humic substances with a predominantly terrestrial signature resembling those obtained from soils. Condensed aromatic molecules and carboxyl rich alicyclic molecules (CRAM) typify the major structures observed. The CRAM-like molecules persist progressing seaward into the Gulf while the condensed aromatic molecules diminish in relative abundance. This trend is characteristic of traditional mixing of allochthonous terrestrial with autochthonous source materials, consistent with published isotope and lignin phenol biomarker data. Alternatively, the trend could also be explained by oxidative degradation of mainly terrestrial organic matter whereby the condensed aromatic molecules would be selectively oxidized. CRAM molecules would then become selectively enriched as one progresses from the channel to the continental shelf. Laboratory studies show that aromatic molecules (like those in lignin) subjected to oxidative degradation mainly by hydroxyl radical attack, either biologically or non-biologically, undergo molecular rearrangement via ring-opening to form reactive species. These can interact with nucleophilic molecules such as peptides and sulfur-containing species and/or can undergo cycloaddition reactions to produce CRAM-like species. This latter explanation suggests that the main source of organic matter in this coastal depocenter is terrestrial and that autochthonous organic matter contributes little to sedimentary organic matter.

Collisions of Terrestrial Worlds: The Occurrence of Extreme Mid-infrared Excesses around Low-mass Field Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theissen, Christopher A.; West, Andrew A.

2017-04-01

We present the results of an investigation into the occurrence and properties (stellar age and mass trends) of low-mass field stars exhibiting extreme mid-infrared (MIR) excesses ({L}{IR}/{L}* ≳ 0.01). Stars for the analysis were initially selected from the Motion Verified Red Stars (MoVeRS) catalog of photometric stars with Sloan Digital Sky Survey, 2MASS, and WISE photometry and significant proper motions. We identify 584 stars exhibiting extreme MIR excesses, selected based on an empirical relationship for main-sequence W1-W3 colors. For a small subset of the sample, we show, using spectroscopic tracers of stellar age (Hα and Li I) and luminosity class, that the parent sample is most likely comprised of field dwarfs (≳ 1 Gyr). We also develop the Low-mass Kinematics (LoKi) galactic model to estimate the completeness of the extreme MIR excess sample. Using Galactic height as a proxy for stellar age, the completeness-corrected analysis indicates a distinct age dependence for field stars exhibiting extreme MIR excesses. We also find a trend with stellar mass (using r - z color as a proxy). Our findings are consistent with the detected extreme MIR excesses originating from dust created in a short-lived collisional cascade (≲100,000 years) during a giant impact between two large planetismals or terrestrial planets. These stars with extreme MIR excesses also provide support for planetary collisions being the dominant mechanism in creating the observed Kepler dichotomy (the need for more than a single mode, typically two, to explain the variety of planetary system architectures Kepler has observed), rather than different formation mechanisms.

Light climate and dissolved organic carbon concentration influence species-specific changes in fish zooplanktivory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weidel, Brian C.; Baglini, Katherine; Jones, Stuart E.; Kelly, Patrick T.; Solomon, Christopher T.; Zwart, Jacob A.

2017-01-01

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in lakes reduces light penetration and limits fish production in low nutrient lakes, reportedly via reduced primary and secondary production. Alternatively, DOC and light reductions could influence fish by altering their visual feeding. Previous studies report mixed effects of DOC on feeding rates of zooplanktivorous fish, but most investigators tested effects of a single concentration of DOC against clear-water, turbid, or algal treatments. We used a controlled laboratory study to quantify the effects of a DOC gradient (3–19 mg L−1) on average light climate and the zooplankton feeding rate of 3 common, north temperate fishes. Light availability, which was inversely related to DOC concentration, had a positive and linear effect on zooplankton consumption by juvenile largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), explaining 22% and 28% of the variation in consumption, respectively. By contrast, zooplankton feeding rates by fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) were best predicted by a nonlinear, negative influence of light (R2 = 0.13). In bluegill feeding trials we found a general trend for positive selection of larger zooplankton (Cladocera and Chaoboridae); however, the light climate did not influence the selection of prey type. Largemouth bass selected for larger-bodied zooplankton, with weak evidence that selectivity for large Cladocera changed from negative to neutral selection based on electivity values across the light gradient. Our results suggest that the effect of DOC on the light climate of lakes may directly influence fish zooplanktivory and that this influence may vary among fish species.

Searching for evidence of selection in avian DNA barcodes.

PubMed

Kerr, Kevin C R

2011-11-01

The barcode of life project has assembled a tremendous number of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) sequences. Although these sequences were gathered to develop a DNA-based system for species identification, it has been suggested that further biological inferences may also be derived from this wealth of data. Recurrent selective sweeps have been invoked as an evolutionary mechanism to explain limited intraspecific COI diversity, particularly in birds, but this hypothesis has not been formally tested. In this study, I collated COI sequences from previous barcoding studies on birds and tested them for evidence of selection. Using this expanded data set, I re-examined the relationships between intraspecific diversity and interspecific divergence and sampling effort, respectively. I employed the McDonald-Kreitman test to test for neutrality in sequence evolution between closely related pairs of species. Because amino acid sequences were generally constrained between closely related pairs, I also included broader intra-order comparisons to quantify patterns of protein variation in avian COI sequences. Lastly, using 22 published whole mitochondrial genomes, I compared the evolutionary rate of COI against the other 12 protein-coding mitochondrial genes to assess intragenomic variability. I found no conclusive evidence of selective sweeps. Most evidence pointed to an overall trend of strong purifying selection and functional constraint. The COI protein did vary across the class Aves, but to a very limited extent. COI was the least variable gene in the mitochondrial genome, suggesting that other genes might be more informative for probing factors constraining mitochondrial variation within species. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

National and sub-national trend and burden of injuries in Iran, 1990 - 2013: a study protocol.

PubMed

Jamshidbeygi, Esmat; Rastad, Hadith; Qorbani, Mostafa; Saadat, Soheil; Sepidarkish, Mehdi; Asayesh, Hamid; Sepanlou, Sadaf Ghajarieh; Shokraneh, Farhad; Najafi, Fereshteh; Khoramdad, Malihe; Maghsodi, Ahmad; Farzadfar, Farahnaz; Jamshidi, Hamid Reza; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Farzadfar, Farshad

2014-03-01

Worldwide, injuries are a major public health concern and make a considerable contribution to the disease burden. The present study is a component of the National and Subnational Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors from 1990 to 2013 (NASBOD) study in Iran, which was designed to investigate the burden of most important injuries (road traffic injuries, falls, burns, poisonings and drownings) at the national and sub-national levels in Iran. In this paper we explain definitions, organization, injuries selection process, data sources, data gathering methods, and data analyses of the national and sub-national burden of injuries study in Iran. The burden of most important injuries in current metric of DALYs at the national and sub-national levels in Iran over 1990-2013 will be estimated through comprehensive reviews of either published or national data sources. Statistical modeling will be used to impute the missing data on the burden of selected important injuries for each district-year. The results of present study can help health policy makers to plan more comprehensive and cost-effective strategies at national and sub-national level for prevention and control of burden caused by injuries.

The Common Ancestor of Archaea and Eukarya Was Not an Archaeon

PubMed Central

Forterre, Patrick

2013-01-01

It is often assumed that eukarya originated from archaea. This view has been recently supported by phylogenetic analyses in which eukarya are nested within archaea. Here, I argue that these analyses are not reliable, and I critically discuss archaeal ancestor scenarios, as well as fusion scenarios for the origin of eukaryotes. Based on recognized evolutionary trends toward reduction in archaea and toward complexity in eukarya, I suggest that their last common ancestor was more complex than modern archaea but simpler than modern eukaryotes (the bug in-between scenario). I propose that the ancestors of archaea (and bacteria) escaped protoeukaryotic predators by invading high temperature biotopes, triggering their reductive evolution toward the “prokaryotic” phenotype (the thermoreduction hypothesis). Intriguingly, whereas archaea and eukarya share many basic features at the molecular level, the archaeal mobilome resembles more the bacterial than the eukaryotic one. I suggest that selection of different parts of the ancestral virosphere at the onset of the three domains played a critical role in shaping their respective biology. Eukarya probably evolved toward complexity with the help of retroviruses and large DNA viruses, whereas similar selection pressure (thermoreduction) could explain why the archaeal and bacterial mobilomes somehow resemble each other. PMID:24348094

The common ancestor of archaea and eukarya was not an archaeon.

PubMed

Forterre, Patrick

2013-01-01

It is often assumed that eukarya originated from archaea. This view has been recently supported by phylogenetic analyses in which eukarya are nested within archaea. Here, I argue that these analyses are not reliable, and I critically discuss archaeal ancestor scenarios, as well as fusion scenarios for the origin of eukaryotes. Based on recognized evolutionary trends toward reduction in archaea and toward complexity in eukarya, I suggest that their last common ancestor was more complex than modern archaea but simpler than modern eukaryotes (the bug in-between scenario). I propose that the ancestors of archaea (and bacteria) escaped protoeukaryotic predators by invading high temperature biotopes, triggering their reductive evolution toward the "prokaryotic" phenotype (the thermoreduction hypothesis). Intriguingly, whereas archaea and eukarya share many basic features at the molecular level, the archaeal mobilome resembles more the bacterial than the eukaryotic one. I suggest that selection of different parts of the ancestral virosphere at the onset of the three domains played a critical role in shaping their respective biology. Eukarya probably evolved toward complexity with the help of retroviruses and large DNA viruses, whereas similar selection pressure (thermoreduction) could explain why the archaeal and bacterial mobilomes somehow resemble each other.

Living arrangements among older people: an overview of trends in Europe and the USA.

PubMed

Tomassini, Cecilia; Glaser, Karen; Wolf, Douglas A; Broese van Groenou, Marjolein I; Grundy, Emily

2004-01-01

This article compares the trends in living arrangements of older people in several European countries and in the United States. Trends and cross-country variability in several factors that could account for these cross-national differences, including marital status, fertility, labour force participation and attitudes, are also examined. In most countries the proportion of older people living alone increased substantially between 1970 and 1990. However the increase in living alone stabilised or even declined between 1990 and 2000 in most of the countries analysed indicating a possible reversal in the trend. Increases in proportions of older women who are married and reductions in the proportions childless may partially explain this. Considerable variability in both trends and levels of older people's living arrangements was seen especially between north-western and southern European countries. These variations mirrored contrasts in attitudes towards residential care and parent-child coresidence between the countries.

Technetium: The First Radioelement on the Periodic Table

DOE PAGES

Johnstone, Erik V.; Yates, Mary Anne; Poineau, Frederic; ...

2017-02-21

The radioactive nature of technetium is discussed using a combination of introductory nuclear physics concepts and empirical trends observed in the chart of the nuclides and the periodic table of the elements. Trends such as the enhanced stability of nucleon pairs, magic numbers, and Mattauch's rule are described. Here, the concepts of nuclear binding energies and the nuclear shell model are introduced and used to explain the relative stability of radionuclides and, in particular, the isotopes of technetium.

Living kidney donation and masked nationalism in Israel.

PubMed

Epstein, Miran

2017-01-01

This paper draws attention to a current trend of masked conditional-nationalist living kidney donation in Israel, to which the local transplant system has been turning a blind eye. The paper seeks to make the international transplant and bioethics communities aware of this disturbing trend. It also explains why it is wrong and suggests how to tackle it. Finally, it calls on the Israeli system to bring the practice to a halt for the benefit of all parties involved.

Recent trends in the registered nurse labor market in the U.S.: short-run swings on top of long-term trends.

PubMed

Buerhaus, Peter I; Auerbach, David I; Staiger, Douglas O

2007-01-01

Drawing from labor economics, background information is provided for a deeper understanding of recent changes in the nurse labor market. The difference between the short and long-run supply of RNs are distinguished, and the economic forces that determine RNs' decision to be active in the labor market are explained. The ways the nurse labor market may change in the next few years are discussed.

Pacing patterns in competitive rowing adopted in different race categories.

PubMed

Muehlbauer, Thomas; Melges, Thomas

2011-05-01

Data from 7 World Rowing Championships between 2001 and 2009 were analyzed to determine the time distribution during 2,000-m heavyweight races (from 500-m quarter times) and to assess whether pacing patterns differ between boat classes (single vs. team boats) and qualifying rounds (heats vs. finals). Analyses of variance with repeated measures on quarter times revealed that pacing patterns in heat races were better described (i.e., higher amount of variance explained) by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68) but followed a quadratic trend line (parabolic-shaped pattern) during finals (women: η² = 0.81, men: η² = 0.60). Not using a spurt at the end of the heat races may indicate an attempt to conserve energy for subsequent rounds or reflect reduced effort made by losing crews or both aspects. In single boats, the pacing pattern was better represented by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68), but the amount of variance explained was virtually the same for both the linear and the quadratic trend component in team boats. The absence of a final spurt in single boat races suggests that the physiological status of the athlete plays an important role to control the timing and rate of decline in rowing speed.

Decomposition of the drivers of the U.S. hospital spending growth, 2001–2009

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background United States health care spending rose rapidly in the 2000s, after a period of temporary slowdown in the 1990s. However, the description of the overall trend and the understanding of the underlying drivers of this trend are very limited. This study investigates how well historical hospital cost/revenue drivers explain the recent hospital spending trend in the 2000s, and how important each of these drivers is. Methods We used aggregated time series data to describe the trend in total hospital spending, price, and quantity between 2001 and 2009. We used the Oaxaca-Blinder method to investigate the relative importance of major hospital cost/spending drivers (derived from the literature) in explaining the change in hospital spending patterns between 2001 and 2007. We assembled data from Medicare Cost Reports, American Hospital Association annual surveys, Prospective Payment System (PPS) Impact Files, Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR) Medicare claims data, InterStudy reports, National Health Expenditure data, and Area Resource Files. Results Aggregated time series trends show that high hospital spending between 2001 and 2009 appears to be driven by higher payment per unit of hospital output, not by increased utilization. Results using the Oaxaca-Blinder regression decomposition method indicate that changes in historically important spending drivers explain a limited 30% of unit-payment growth, but a higher 60% of utilization growth. Hospital staffing and labor-related costs, casemix, and demographics are the most important drivers of higher hospital revenue, utilization, and unit-payment. Technology is associated with lower utilization, higher unit payment, and limited increases in total revenue. Market competition, primarily because of increased managed care concentration, moderates total revenue growth by driving lower unit payment. Conclusions Much of the rapidly rising hospital spending growth in the 2000s in the United States is driven by factors not commonly known or well measured. Future studies need to explore new factors and dynamics that drive longer-term hospital spending growth in recent years, particularly through the channel of higher prices. PMID:24886580

Does boldness explain vulnerability to angling in Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis?

PubMed

Vainikka, Anssi; Tammela, Ilkka; Hyvärinen, Pekka

2016-04-01

Consistent individual differences (CIDs) in behavior are of interest to both basic and applied research, because any selection acting on them could induce evolution of animal behavior. It has been suggested that CIDs in the behavior of fish might explain individual differences in vulnerability to fishing. If so, fishing could impose selection on fish behavior. In this study, we assessed boldness-indicating behaviors of Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis using individually conducted experiments measuring the time taken to explore a novel arena containing predator (burbot, Lota lota ) cues. We studied if individual differences in boldness would explain vulnerability of individually tagged perch to experimental angling in outdoor ponds, or if fishing would impose selection on boldness-indicating behavior. Perch expressed repeatable individual differences in boldness-indicating behavior but the individual boldness-score (the first principal component) obtained using principal component analysis combining all the measured behavioral responses did not explain vulnerability to experimental angling. Instead, large body size appeared as the only statistically significant predictor of capture probability. Our results suggest that angling is selective for large size, but not always selective for high boldness.

Does boldness explain vulnerability to angling in Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis?

PubMed Central

Vainikka, Anssi; Tammela, Ilkka; Hyvärinen, Pekka

2016-01-01

Abstract Consistent individual differences (CIDs) in behavior are of interest to both basic and applied research, because any selection acting on them could induce evolution of animal behavior. It has been suggested that CIDs in the behavior of fish might explain individual differences in vulnerability to fishing. If so, fishing could impose selection on fish behavior. In this study, we assessed boldness-indicating behaviors of Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis using individually conducted experiments measuring the time taken to explore a novel arena containing predator (burbot, Lota lota) cues. We studied if individual differences in boldness would explain vulnerability of individually tagged perch to experimental angling in outdoor ponds, or if fishing would impose selection on boldness-indicating behavior. Perch expressed repeatable individual differences in boldness-indicating behavior but the individual boldness-score (the first principal component) obtained using principal component analysis combining all the measured behavioral responses did not explain vulnerability to experimental angling. Instead, large body size appeared as the only statistically significant predictor of capture probability. Our results suggest that angling is selective for large size, but not always selective for high boldness. PMID:29491897

NASA Aeronautics and Space Database for bibliometric analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powers, R.; Rudman, R.

2004-01-01

The authors use the NASA Aeronautics and Space Database to perform bibliometric analysis of citations. This paper explains their research methodology and gives some sample results showing collaboration trends between NASA Centers and other institutions.

Reconciling Warming Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew T.; Tsigaridis, Konstantinos

2014-01-01

Climate models projected stronger warming over the past 15 years than has been seen in observations. Conspiring factors of errors in volcanic and solar inputs, representations of aerosols, and El NiNo evolution, may explain most of the discrepancy.

Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians

PubMed Central

Berthelot, Geoffroy; Marck, Adrien; Noirez, Philippe; Latouche, Aurélien; Toussaint, Jean-François

2015-01-01

Life-span trends progression has worldwide practical implications as it may affect the sustainability of modern societies. We aimed to describe the secular life-span trends of populations with a propensity to live longer—Olympians and supercentenarians—under two hypotheses: an ongoing life-span extension versus a biologic “probabilistic barrier” limiting further progression. In a study of life-span densities (total number of life durations per birth date), we analyzed 19,012 Olympians and 1,205 supercentenarians deceased between 1900 and 2013. Among most Olympians, we observed a trend toward increased life duration. This trend, however, decelerates at advanced ages leveling off with the upper values with a perennial gap between Olympians and supercentenarians during the whole observation period. Similar tendencies are observed among supercentenarians, and over the last years, a plateau attests to a stable longevity pattern among the longest-lived humans. The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic “barrier” forecast. PMID:25143003

Trends in Sexual Behavior Among Men Who have Sex with Men (MSM) in High-Income Countries, 1990-2013: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Hess, Kristen L; Crepaz, Nicole; Rose, Charles; Purcell, David; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

2017-10-01

HIV diagnoses among men who have sex with men (MSM) have been increasing in several high-income countries. A better understanding of the sexual behavior trends among MSM can be useful for informing HIV prevention. We conducted a systematic review of studies that examined behavioral trends (1990-2013) in any condomless anal sex, condomless anal sex with an HIV-discordant partner, and number of partners. Studies included come from the United States, Europe, and Australia. We found increasing trends in condomless anal sex and condomless anal sex with an HIV-discordant partner, and a decreasing trend in number of partners. The increase in condomless anal sex may help to explain the increase in HIV infections. More explanatory research is needed to provide insight into factors that contribute to these behavior trends. Continuous monitoring of HIV, risk behaviors, and use of prevention and treatment is needed to evaluate prevention efforts and monitor HIV transmission risk.

Research and Trends in the Studies of Phonological Knowledge and Reading Development: A Review on Selected Journals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamaludin, Khairul Azhar; Alias, Norlidah; Johari, Roselina

2014-01-01

Developing phonological knowledge of students is believed to be beneficial to reading development. This paper reviews selected eight articles on the issue of phonological knowledge and reading development in both native and English as Second Language (ESL) context. In finding the trends and patterns across all eight articles, the content and…

Telecommunications Research in the United States and Selected Foreign Countries: A Preliminary Survey. Volume II, Individual Contributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Academy of Engineering, Washington, DC. Committee on Telecommunications.

At the request of the National Science Foundation, the Panel on Telecommunications Research of the Committee on Telecommunications of the National Academy of Engineering has made a preliminary survey of the status and trends of telecommunications research in the United States and selected foreign countries. The status and trends were identified by…

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A; van der Linden, Giel T J; Schaminée, Joop H J; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-12-09

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species.

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands

PubMed Central

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A.; van der Linden, Giel T. J.; Schaminée, Joop H. J.; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-01-01

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species. PMID:25422416

Analyte Flux at a Biomaterial–Tissue Interface over Time: Implications for Sensors for Type 1 and 2 Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Ekberg, Neda Rajamand; Brismar, Kerstin; Malmstedt, Jonas; Hedblad, Mari-Anne; Adamson, Ulf; Ungerstedt, Urban; Wisniewski, Natalie

2010-01-01

Objective The very presence of an implanted sensor (a foreign body) causes changes in the adjacent tissue that may alter the analytes being sensed. The objective of this study was to investigate changes in glucose availability and local tissue metabolism at the sensor–tissue interface in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Method Microdialysis was used to model implanted sensors. Capillary glucose and subcutaneous (sc) microdialysate analytes were monitored in five T1DM and five T2DM patients. Analytes included glucose, glycolysis metabolites (lactate, pyruvate), a lipolysis metabolite (glycerol), and a protein degradation byproduct (urea). On eight consecutive days, four measurements were taken during a period of steady state blood glucose. Results Microdialysate glucose and microdialysate-to-blood-glucose ratio increased over the first several days in all patients. Although glucose recovery eventually stabilized, the lactate levels continued to rise. These trends were explained by local inflammatory and microvascular changes observed in histological analysis of biopsy samples. Urea concentrations mirrored glucose trends. Urea is neither produced nor consumed in sc tissue, and so the initially increasing urea trend is explained by increased local capillary presence during the inflammatory process. Pyruvate in T2DM microdialysate was significantly higher than in T1DM, an observation that is possibly explained by mitochondrial dysfunction in T2DM. Glycerol in T2DM microdialysate (but not in T1DM) was higher than in healthy volunteers, which is likely explained by sc insulin resistance (insulin is a potent antilipolytic hormone). Urea was also higher in microdialysate of patients with diabetes mellitus compared to healthy volunteers. Urea is a byproduct of protein degradation, which is known to be inhibited by insulin. Therefore, insulin deficiency or resistance may explain the higher urea levels. To our knowledge, this is the first histological evaluation of a human tissue biopsy containing an implanted glucose monitoring device. Conclusions Monitoring metabolic changes at a material–tissue interface combined with biopsy histology helped to formulate an understanding of physiological changes adjacent to implanted glucose sensors. Microdialysate glucose trends were similar over 1-week in T1DM and T2DM; however, differences in other analytes indicated wound healing and metabolic activities in the two patient groups differ. We propose explanations for the specific observed differences based on differential insulin insufficiency/resistance and mitochondrial dysfunction in T1DM versus T2DM. PMID:20920426

Analyte flux at a biomaterial-tissue interface over time: implications for sensors for type 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Ekberg, Neda Rajamand; Brismar, Kerstin; Malmstedt, Jonas; Hedblad, Mari-Anne; Adamson, Ulf; Ungerstedt, Urban; Wisniewski, Natalie

2010-09-01

The very presence of an implanted sensor (a foreign body) causes changes in the adjacent tissue that may alter the analytes being sensed. The objective of this study was to investigate changes in glucose availability and local tissue metabolism at the sensor-tissue interface in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Microdialysis was used to model implanted sensors. Capillary glucose and subcutaneous (sc) microdialysate analytes were monitored in five T1DM and five T2DM patients. Analytes included glucose, glycolysis metabolites (lactate, pyruvate), a lipolysis metabolite (glycerol), and a protein degradation byproduct (urea). On eight consecutive days, four measurements were taken during a period of steady state blood glucose. Microdialysate glucose and microdialysate-to-blood-glucose ratio increased over the first several days in all patients. Although glucose recovery eventually stabilized, the lactate levels continued to rise. These trends were explained by local inflammatory and microvascular changes observed in histological analysis of biopsy samples. Urea concentrations mirrored glucose trends. Urea is neither produced nor consumed in sc tissue, and so the initially increasing urea trend is explained by increased local capillary presence during the inflammatory process. Pyruvate in T2DM microdialysate was significantly higher than in T1DM, an observation that is possibly explained by mitochondrial dysfunction in T2DM. Glycerol in T2DM microdialysate (but not in T1DM) was higher than in healthy volunteers, which is likely explained by sc insulin resistance (insulin is a potent antilipolytic hormone). Urea was also higher in microdialysate of patients with diabetes mellitus compared to healthy volunteers. Urea is a byproduct of protein degradation, which is known to be inhibited by insulin. Therefore, insulin deficiency or resistance may explain the higher urea levels. To our knowledge, this is the first histological evaluation of a human tissue biopsy containing an implanted glucose monitoring device. Monitoring metabolic changes at a material-tissue interface combined with biopsy histology helped to formulate an understanding of physiological changes adjacent to implanted glucose sensors. Microdialysate glucose trends were similar over 1-week in T1DM and T2DM; however, differences in other analytes indicated wound healing and metabolic activities in the two patient groups differ. We propose explanations for the specific observed differences based on differential insulin insufficiency/resistance and mitochondrial dysfunction in T1DM versus T2DM. © 2010 Diabetes Technology Society.

Temporal trends in nitrate and selected pesticides in Mid-Atlantic ground water.

PubMed

Debrewer, Linda M; Ator, Scott W; Denver, Judith M

2008-01-01

Evaluating long-term temporal trends in regional ground-water quality is complicated by variable hydrogeologic conditions and typically slow flow, and such trends have rarely been directly measured. Ground-water samples were collected over near-decadal and annual intervals from unconfined aquifers in agricultural areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, including fractured carbonate rocks in the Great Valley, Potomac River Basin, and unconsolidated sediments on the Delmarva Peninsula. Concentrations of nitrate and selected pesticides and degradates were compared among sampling events and to apparent recharge dates. Observed temporal trends are related to changes in land use and chemical applications, and to hydrogeology and climate. Insignificant differences in nitrate concentrations in the Great Valley between 1993 and 2002 are consistent with relatively steady fertilizer application during respective recharge periods and are likely related to drought conditions in the later sampling period. Detecting trends in Great Valley ground water is complicated by long open boreholes characteristic of wells sampled in this setting which facilitate significant ground-water mixing. Decreasing atrazine and prometon concentrations, however, reflect reported changes in usage. On the Delmarva Peninsula between 1988 and 2001, median nitrate concentrations increased 2 mg per liter in aerobic ground water, reflecting increasing fertilizer applications. Correlations between selected pesticide compounds and apparent recharge date are similarly related to changing land use and chemical application. Observed trends in the two settings demonstrate the importance of considering hydrogeology and recharge date along with changing land and chemical uses when interpreting trends in regional ground-water quality.

Human Land-Use Practices Lead to Global Long-Term Increases in Photosynthetic Capacity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Thomas; Tucker, Compton J.; Dressler, Gunnar; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Leimgruber, Peter; Dubayah, Ralph O.; Hurtt, George C.; Boehning-Gaese, Katrin; Fagan, William F.

2014-01-01

Long-term trends in photosynthetic capacity measured with the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are usually associated with climate change. Human impacts on the global land surface are typically not accounted for. Here, we provide the first global analysis quantifying the effect of the earth's human footprint on NDVI trends. Globally, more than 20% of the variability in NDVI trends was explained by anthropogenic factors such as land use, nitrogen fertilization, and irrigation. Intensely used land classes, such as villages, showed the greatest rates of increase in NDVI, more than twice than those of forests. These findings reveal that factors beyond climate influence global long-term trends in NDVI and suggest that global climate change models and analyses of primary productivity should incorporate land use effects.

Mutation supply and the repeatability of selection for antibiotic resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijk, Thomas; Hwang, Sungmin; Krug, Joachim; de Visser, J. Arjan G. M.; Zwart, Mark P.

2017-10-01

Whether evolution can be predicted is a key question in evolutionary biology. Here we set out to better understand the repeatability of evolution, which is a necessary condition for predictability. We explored experimentally the effect of mutation supply and the strength of selective pressure on the repeatability of selection from standing genetic variation. Different sizes of mutant libraries of antibiotic resistance gene TEM-1 β-lactamase in Escherichia coli, generated by error-prone PCR, were subjected to different antibiotic concentrations. We determined whether populations went extinct or survived, and sequenced the TEM gene of the surviving populations. The distribution of mutations per allele in our mutant libraries followed a Poisson distribution. Extinction patterns could be explained by a simple stochastic model that assumed the sampling of beneficial mutations was key for survival. In most surviving populations, alleles containing at least one known large-effect beneficial mutation were present. These genotype data also support a model which only invokes sampling effects to describe the occurrence of alleles containing large-effect driver mutations. Hence, evolution is largely predictable given cursory knowledge of mutational fitness effects, the mutation rate and population size. There were no clear trends in the repeatability of selected mutants when we considered all mutations present. However, when only known large-effect mutations were considered, the outcome of selection is less repeatable for large libraries, in contrast to expectations. We show experimentally that alleles carrying multiple mutations selected from large libraries confer higher resistance levels relative to alleles with only a known large-effect mutation, suggesting that the scarcity of high-resistance alleles carrying multiple mutations may contribute to the decrease in repeatability at large library sizes.

Intelligent trend analysis for a solar thermal energy collector field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juuso, E. K.

2018-03-01

Solar thermal power plants collect available solar energy in a usable form at a temperature range which is adapted to the irradiation levels and seasonal variations. Solar energy can be collected only when the irradiation is high enough to produce the required temperatures. During the operation, a trade-off of the temperature and the flow is needed to achieve a good level for the collected power. The scaling approach brings temporal analysis to all measurements and features: trend indices are calculated by comparing the averages in the long and short time windows, a weighted sum of the trend index and its derivative detects the trend episodes and severity of the trend is estimated by including also the variable level in the sum. The trend index, trend episodes and especially, the deviation index reveal early evolving changes in the operating conditions, including cloudiness and load disturbances. The solution is highly compact: all variables, features and indices are transformed to the range [-2, 2] and represented in natural language which is important in integrating data-driven solutions with domain expertise. The special situations detected during the test campaigns are explained well.

Trend and Variability of China Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fanglin; Lau, K.-M.

2004-01-01

Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and inter-decadal timescales. Results based on Singular Value Decomposition analyses (SVD) show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centers of actions for each season, which are co-varying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centered in southeastern China and northern China, respectively, are linked to an ENSO-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850-hPa winds and 700-Wa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer timescale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean; the inter-decadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, the North Pacific mode. The later is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and inter-decadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend of springtime precipitation over southeastern China and downward trend of summertime precipitation over northern China are attributable to the warming trend of the ENSO-like mode. The recent frequent summertime floods over central eastern China are linked to the warming trend of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean.

Spatial and Temporal Monitoring of Aerosol over Selected Urban Areas in Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shokr, Mohammed; El-Tahan, Mohammed; Ibrahim, Alaa

2015-04-01

We utilize remote sensing data of atmospheric aerosols from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites to explore spatio-temporal patterns over selected urban sites in Egypt during 2000-2015. High resolution (10 x 10 km^2) Level 2, collection 5, quality-controlled product was used. The selected sites are characterized by different human and industrial activities as well as landscape and meteorological attributes. These have impacts on the dominant types and intensity of aerosols. Aerosol robotic network (AERONET) data were used to validate the calculations from MODIS. The suitability of the MODIS product in terms of spatial and temporal coverage as well as accuracy and robustness has been established. Seasonal patterns of aerosol concentration are identified and compared between the sites. Spatial gradient of aerosol is assessed in the vicinity of major aerosol-emission sites (e.g. Cairo) to determine the range of influence of the generated pollution. Peak aerosol concentrations are explained in terms of meteorological events and land cover. The limited trends found in the temporal records of the aerosol measurements will be confirmed using calibrated long-term ground observations. The study has been conducted under the PEER 2-239 research project titled "The Impact of Biogenic and Anthropogenic Atmospheric Aerosols to Climate in Egypt". Project website is CleanAirEgypt.org

Poorer divided attention in children born very preterm can be explained by difficulty with each component task, not the executive requirement to dual-task.

PubMed

Delane, Louise; Campbell, Catherine; Bayliss, Donna M; Reid, Corinne; Stephens, Amelia; French, Noel; Anderson, Mike

2017-07-01

Children born very preterm (VP, ≤ 32 weeks) exhibit poor performance on tasks of executive functioning. However, it is largely unknown whether this reflects the cumulative impact of non-executive deficits or a separable impairment in executive-level abilities. A dual-task paradigm was used in the current study to differentiate the executive processes involved in performing two simple attention tasks simultaneously. The executive-level contribution to performance was indexed by the within-subject cost incurred to single-task performance under dual-task conditions, termed dual-task cost. The participants included 77 VP children (mean age: 7.17 years) and 74 peer controls (mean age: 7.16 years) who completed Sky Search (selective attention), Score (sustained attention) and Sky Search DT (divided attention) from the Test of Everyday Attention for Children. The divided-attention task requires the simultaneous performance of the selective- and sustained-attention tasks. The VP group exhibited poorer performance on the selective- and divided-attention tasks, and showed a strong trend toward poorer performance on the sustained-attention task. However, there were no significant group differences in dual-task cost. These results suggest a cumulative impact of vulnerable lower-level cognitive processes on dual-tasking or divided attention in VP children, and fail to support the hypothesis that VP children show a separable impairment in executive-level abilities.

Associations of candidate genes to age-related macular degeneration among racial/ethnic groups in the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Klein, Ronald; Li, Xiaohui; Kuo, Jane Z; Klein, Barbara E K; Cotch, Mary Frances; Wong, Tien Y; Taylor, Kent D; Rotter, Jerome I

2013-11-01

To describe the relationships of selected candidate genes to the prevalence of early age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in a cohort of whites, blacks, Hispanics, and Chinese Americans. Cross-sectional study. setting: Multicenter study. study population: A total of 2456 persons aged 45-84 years with genotype information and fundus photographs. procedures: Twelve of 2862 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 11 of 233 candidate genes for cardiovascular disease were selected for analysis based on screening with marginal unadjusted P value <.001 within 1 or more racial/ethnic groups. Logistic regression models tested for association in case-control samples. main outcome measure: Prevalence of early AMD. Early AMD was present in 4.0% of the cohort and varied from 2.4% in blacks to 6.0% in whites. The odds ratio increased from 2.3 for 1 to 10.0 for 4 risk alleles in a joint effect analysis of Age-Related Maculopathy Susceptibility 2 rs10490924 and Complement Factor H Y402H (P for trend = 4.2×10(-7)). Frequencies of each SNP varied among the racial/ethnic groups. Adjusting for age and other factors, few statistically significant associations of the 12 SNPs with AMD were consistent across all groups. In a multivariate model, most candidate genes did not attenuate the comparatively higher odds of AMD in whites. The higher frequency of risk alleles for several SNPs in Chinese Americans may partially explain their AMD frequency's approaching that of whites. The relationships of 11 candidate genes to early AMD varied among 4 racial/ethnic groups, and partially explained the observed variations in early AMD prevalence among them. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding Trends in Concentrated Poverty: 1980 to 2014*

PubMed Central

Iceland, John; Hernandez, Erik

2016-01-01

Trends in concentrated neighborhood poverty in the United States have been volatile over the past several decades. Using data from the 1980 to 2000 decennial census and the 2010-2014 American Community Survey, we examine the association between concentrated poverty across metropolitan areas in the United States and key proximate factors, including overall changes in poverty, racial residential segregation, and income segregation. One of our unique contributions is assessing the relative contribution of each of these to long-term trends in such poverty using a decomposition analysis. We find that changes in the segregation of the poor explained the largest share of the change in concentrated poverty over most of the time period, with the exception of the 1990s, where the plunge in both black and white poverty rates had the largest role in explaining the considerable decline in concentrated poverty in that decade for both groups. The association between racial segregation and black concentrated poverty is positive but weaker, indicating that without declines in black segregation, concentrated poverty would have been higher. Overall, growing income segregation, along with weak economic performance in recent years, have put more poor people at risk for living in high-poverty communities. PMID:28126115

Trends and Dangers of Increased Bureaucracy in Higher Education: A View from Below.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daalder, Hans

1985-01-01

Several trends in European university administration intended to improve higher education are cited as causes for concern: trends away from academic and toward corporate style administration, toward separate research institutions, away from competitive selection for academics, toward peer review, and toward increased diversity among institutions.…

Long-term trends in dissolved iron and DOC concentration linked to nitrate depletion in riparian soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musolff, Andreas; Selle, Benny; Fleckenstein, Jan H.; Oosterwoud, Marieke R.; Tittel, Jörg

2016-04-01

The instream concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) are rising in many catchments of the northern hemisphere. Elevated concentrations of DOC, mainly in the form of colored humic components, increase efforts and costs of drinking water purification. In this study, we evaluated a long-term dataset of 110 catchments draining into German drinking water reservoirs in order to assess sources of DOC and drivers of a potential long-term change. The average DOC concentrations across the wide range of different catchments were found to be well explained by the catchment's topographic wetness index. Higher wetness indices were connected to higher average DOC concentrations, which implies that catchments with shallow topography and pronounced riparian wetlands mobilize more DOC. Overall, 37% of the investigated catchments showed a significant long-term increase in DOC concentrations, while 22% exhibited significant negative trends. Moreover, we found that increasing trends in DOC were positively correlated to trends in dissolved iron concentrations at pH≤6 due to remobilization of DOC previously sorbed to iron minerals. Both, increasing trends in DOC and dissolve iron were found to be connected to decreasing trends and low concentrations of nitrate (below ~6 mg/L). This was especially observed in forested catchments where atmospheric N-depositions were the major source for nitrate availability. In these catchments, we also found long-term increases of phosphate concentrations. Therefore, we argue that dissolved iron, DOC and phosphate were jointly released under iron-reducing conditions when nitrate as a competing electron acceptor was too low in concentrations to prevent the microbial iron reduction. In contrast, we could not explain the observed increasing trends in DOC, iron and phosphate concentrations by the long-term trends of pH, sulfate or precipitation. Altogether this study gives strong evidence that both, source and long-term increases in DOC are primarily controlled by riparian wetland soils within the catchments. Here, the achievement of a long-term reduction in nitrogen deposition may in turn lead to a more pronounced iron reduction and a subsequent release of DOC and other iron-bound substances such as phosphate.

Temporal trend of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis incidence in southern Europe: a population study in the health district of Ferrara, Italy.

PubMed

Govoni, Vittorio; Cesnik, Edward; Casetta, Ilaria; Tugnoli, Valeria; Tola, Maria Rosaria; Granieri, Enrico

2012-08-01

Data about the temporal trend of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incidence in southern Europe are scarce. Incidence studies on ALS have been carried out in the health district of Ferrara, Italy, since 1960s. We expanded the previous studies from 1964 to 2009. The study was prospective with a subsequent retrospective intensive survey of multiple sources of case ascertainment. All patients with a definite and probable ALS according to the original El Escorial criteria were selected. There were 130 incident cases in the years 1964-2009 giving an average annual crude incidence of 1.82 per 100,000 population (95% CI 1.53-2.17). An incidence increase during the study period was estimated in women (χ(2) test for trend = 7.19, p < 0.01) and in the elderly (χ(2) test for trend = 7.803, p < 0.01). The age-adjusted incidence was stable over time in both women (1.19 per 100,000, 95% CI 0.90-1.52) and men (1.45 per 100,000, 95% CI 0.12-1.84). The annual number of new ALS cases in the study population followed the Poisson distribution in both sexes as well as in the elderly group of the population. The present findings suggest that ALS incidence is nearly stable over time. The crude incidence increase we estimated over time among women is mainly explained by population ageing. The increasing incidence in the elderly population was likely the consequence of an increasing precision in ALS diagnosis in the elderly since the increasing attention and care over time of neurologic elderly patients that likely concern elderly women more than previous time periods rather than better case ascertainment of diagnosed patients. The present findings do not support the role of specific environmental factors in ALS pathogenesis.

The Health Extension Program and Its Association with Change in Utilization of Selected Maternal Health Services in Tigray Region, Ethiopia: A Segmented Linear Regression Analysis

PubMed Central

Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Gebregzabher; San Sebastian, Miguel; Edin, Kerstin; Goicolea, Isabel

2015-01-01

Background In 2003, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health established the Health Extension Program (HEP), with the goal of improving access to health care and health promotion activities in rural areas of the country. This paper aims to assess the association of the HEP with improved utilization of maternal health services in Northern Ethiopia using institution-based retrospective data. Methods Average quarterly total attendances for antenatal care (ANC), delivery care (DC) and post-natal care (PNC) at health posts and health care centres were studied from 2002 to 2012. Regression analysis was applied to two models to assess whether trends were statistically significant. One model was used to estimate the level and trend changes associated with the immediate period of intervention, while changes related to the post-intervention period were estimated by the other. Results The total number of consultations for ANC, DC and PNC increased constantly, particularly after the late-intervention period. Increases were higher for ANC and PNC at health post level and for DC at health centres. A positive statistically significant upward trend was found for DC and PNC in all facilities (p<0.01). The positive trend was also present in ANC at health centres (p = 0.04), but not at health posts. Conclusion Our findings revealed an increase in the use of antenatal, delivery and post-natal care after the introduction of the HEP. We are aware that other factors, that we could not control for, might be explaining that increase. The figures for DC and PNC are however low and more needs to be done in order to increase the access to the health care system as well as the demand for these services by the population. Strengthening of the health information system in the region needs also to be prioritized. PMID:26218074

The Health Extension Program and Its Association with Change in Utilization of Selected Maternal Health Services in Tigray Region, Ethiopia: A Segmented Linear Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Gebregzabher; San Sebastian, Miguel; Edin, Kerstin; Goicolea, Isabel

2015-01-01

In 2003, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health established the Health Extension Program (HEP), with the goal of improving access to health care and health promotion activities in rural areas of the country. This paper aims to assess the association of the HEP with improved utilization of maternal health services in Northern Ethiopia using institution-based retrospective data. Average quarterly total attendances for antenatal care (ANC), delivery care (DC) and post-natal care (PNC) at health posts and health care centres were studied from 2002 to 2012. Regression analysis was applied to two models to assess whether trends were statistically significant. One model was used to estimate the level and trend changes associated with the immediate period of intervention, while changes related to the post-intervention period were estimated by the other. The total number of consultations for ANC, DC and PNC increased constantly, particularly after the late-intervention period. Increases were higher for ANC and PNC at health post level and for DC at health centres. A positive statistically significant upward trend was found for DC and PNC in all facilities (p<0.01). The positive trend was also present in ANC at health centres (p = 0.04), but not at health posts. Our findings revealed an increase in the use of antenatal, delivery and post-natal care after the introduction of the HEP. We are aware that other factors, that we could not control for, might be explaining that increase. The figures for DC and PNC are however low and more needs to be done in order to increase the access to the health care system as well as the demand for these services by the population. Strengthening of the health information system in the region needs also to be prioritized.

PLA Aerospace Power: A Primer on Trends in China’s Military Air, Space, and Missile Forces

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-24

aircraft carriers in the future.104 China also may be considering offering the J-31 for sale to foreign customers in order to compete with the U.S...variations exist in other services within the PLA, most follow this general pattern of training . Several factors explain the existence of an annual training ...5. PLA Strategic Support Force 31 6. Trends in PLA Aerospace Training and Operational Proficiency 37 7. Outlook 45 Appendix 1: PLA Air Force

Nathan Glazer Explains the Black Faculty Gap.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glazer, Nathan

2003-01-01

Contends that the low number of academically high-scoring black students at selective colleges, combined with the attraction of alternate career opportunities, largely explains the shortage of black doctoral candidates. The lower grades black students receive at selective institutions may discourage them from choosing academic careers. Suggests…

The Tc Trend In The Zetta Reticuli System: N Spectra - N Trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adibekyan, V.; Figueira, P.; Delgado Mena, E.; Sousa, S. G.; Santos, N. C.; González Hernández; , I.; Israelian, G.

2017-10-01

It is suggested that the chemical abundance trend with the condensation temperature, Tc , can be a signature of rocky planet formation or accretion. Recently, a strong Tc trend was reported in the Zetta Reticuli binary system (Saffe et al., 2016), where ζ2 Ret Ret shows a deficit of refractory elements relative to its companion (ζ1 Ret). This depletion was explained by the presence of a debris disk around ζ2 Ret. Later, Adibekyan et al. (2016b) confirmed the significance of the trend, however, casted doubts on the interpretation proposed. Using three individual highest quality spectra for each star, they found that the Tc trends depend on the individual spectra (three spectra of each star were used) used in the analaysis. In the current work we re-evaluated the presence and variability of the Tc trend in this system using a larger number of individual spectra. In total, 62 spectra of ζ2 Ret and 31 spectra of ζ1 Ret was used. Our results confirm the word of caution issued by Adibekyan et al. (2016b) that nonphysical factors can be at the root of the T c trends for the cases of individual spectra.

Variable Trends in High Peak Flow Generation Across the Swedish Sub-Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, B.; Dahlke, H. E.; Lyon, S. W.

2015-12-01

There is growing concern about increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts globally in recent years. Improving knowledge on the complexity of hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of these extreme events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true in cold regions such as the Swedish Sub-Arctic where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on extremes. This study explores changes in the magnitude and timing of the annual maximum daily flows in 18 Swedish sub-arctic catchments. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to estimate changes in selected hydrological signatures. Further, a flood frequency analysis was conducted by fitting a Gumbel (Extreme Value type I) distribution whereby selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach. Our results showed that hydrological systems in cold climates have complex, heterogeneous interactions with climate. Shifts from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime were evident with all significant trends pointing towards (1) lower flood magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest permafrost thawing and are in agreement with the increasing trends in annual minimum flows. Trends in the selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the entire period of record, while trends were variable under shorter periods. A thorough uncertainty analysis emphasized that the applied trend test is highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional pattern could be determined suggesting that how catchments are responding to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics.

Updating estimates of low streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blum, A. G.; Archfield, S. A.; Hirsch, R. M.; Vogel, R. M.; Kiang, J. E.; Dudley, R. W.

2017-12-01

Given evidence of both increasing and decreasing trends in low flows in many streams, methods are needed to update estimators of low flow statistics used in water resources management. One such metric is the 10-year annual low-flow statistic (7Q10) calculated as the annual minimum seven-day streamflow which is exceeded in nine out of ten years on average. Historical streamflow records may not be representative of current conditions at a site if environmental conditions are changing. We present a new approach to frequency estimation under nonstationary conditions that applies a stationary nonparametric quantile estimator to a subset of the annual minimum flow record. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were used to evaluate this approach across a range of trend and no trend scenarios. Relative to the standard practice of using the entire available streamflow record, use of a nonparametric quantile estimator combined with selection of the most recent 30 or 50 years for 7Q10 estimation were found to improve accuracy and reduce bias. Benefits of data subset selection approaches were greater for higher magnitude trends annual minimum flow records with lower coefficients of variation. A nonparametric trend test approach for subset selection did not significantly improve upon always selecting the last 30 years of record. At 174 stream gages in the Chesapeake Bay region, 7Q10 estimators based on the most recent 30 years of flow record were compared to estimators based on the entire period of record. Given the availability of long records of low streamflow, using only a subset of the flow record ( 30 years) can be used to update 7Q10 estimators to better reflect current streamflow conditions.

Lung cancer and diesel exhaust: an updated critical review of the occupational epidemiology literature.

PubMed

Gamble, John F; Nicolich, Mark J; Boffetta, Paolo

2012-08-01

A recent review concluded that the evidence from epidemiology studies was indeterminate and that additional studies were required to support the diesel exhaust-lung cancer hypothesis. This updated review includes seven recent studies. Two population-based studies concluded that significant exposure-response (E-R) trends between cumulative diesel exhaust and lung cancer were unlikely to be entirely explained by bias or confounding. Those studies have quality data on life-style risk factors, but do not allow definitive conclusions because of inconsistent E-R trends, qualitative exposure estimates and exposure misclassification (insufficient latency based on job title), and selection bias from low participation rates. Non-definitive results are consistent with the larger body of population studies. An NCI/NIOSH cohort mortality and nested case-control study of non-metal miners have some surrogate-based quantitative diesel exposure estimates (including highest exposure measured as respirable elemental carbon (REC) in the workplace) and smoking histories. The authors concluded that diesel exhaust may cause lung cancer. Nonetheless, the results are non-definitive because the conclusions are based on E-R patterns where high exposures were deleted to achieve significant results, where a posteriori adjustments were made to augment results, and where inappropriate adjustments were made for the "negative confounding" effects of smoking even though current smoking was not associated with diesel exposure and therefore could not be a confounder. Three cohort studies of bus drivers and truck drivers are in effect air pollution studies without estimates of diesel exhaust exposure and so are not sufficient for assessing the lung cancer-diesel exhaust hypothesis. Results from all occupational cohort studies with quantitative estimates of exposure have limitations, including weak and inconsistent E-R associations that could be explained by bias, confounding or chance, exposure misclassification, and often inadequate latency. In sum, the weight of evidence is considered inadequate to confirm the diesel-lung cancer hypothesis.

Lung cancer and diesel exhaust: an updated critical review of the occupational epidemiology literature

PubMed Central

Gamble, John F.; Nicolich, Mark J.; Boffetta, Paolo

2012-01-01

A recent review concluded that the evidence from epidemiology studies was indeterminate and that additional studies were required to support the diesel exhaust-lung cancer hypothesis. This updated review includes seven recent studies. Two population-based studies concluded that significant exposure-response (E-R) trends between cumulative diesel exhaust and lung cancer were unlikely to be entirely explained by bias or confounding. Those studies have quality data on life-style risk factors, but do not allow definitive conclusions because of inconsistent E-R trends, qualitative exposure estimates and exposure misclassification (insufficient latency based on job title), and selection bias from low participation rates. Non-definitive results are consistent with the larger body of population studies. An NCI/NIOSH cohort mortality and nested case-control study of non-metal miners have some surrogate-based quantitative diesel exposure estimates (including highest exposure measured as respirable elemental carbon (REC) in the workplace) and smoking histories. The authors concluded that diesel exhaust may cause lung cancer. Nonetheless, the results are non-definitive because the conclusions are based on E-R patterns where high exposures were deleted to achieve significant results, where a posteriori adjustments were made to augment results, and where inappropriate adjustments were made for the “negative confounding” effects of smoking even though current smoking was not associated with diesel exposure and therefore could not be a confounder. Three cohort studies of bus drivers and truck drivers are in effect air pollution studies without estimates of diesel exhaust exposure and so are not sufficient for assessing the lung cancer-diesel exhaust hypothesis. Results from all occupational cohort studies with quantitative estimates of exposure have limitations, including weak and inconsistent E-R associations that could be explained by bias, confounding or chance, exposure misclassification, and often inadequate latency. In sum, the weight of evidence is considered inadequate to confirm the diesel-lung cancer hypothesis. PMID:22656672

Temperature mediated moose survival in Northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lenarz, M.S.; Nelson, M.E.; Schrage, M.W.; Edwards, A.J.

2009-01-01

The earth is in the midst of a pronounced warming trend and temperatures in Minnesota, USA, as elsewhere, are projected to increase. Northern Minnesota represents the southern edge to the circumpolar distribution of moose (Alces alces), a species intolerant of heat. Moose increase their metabolic rate to regulate their core body temperature as temperatures rise. We hypothesized that moose survival rates would be a function of the frequency and magnitude that ambient temperatures exceeded the upper critical temperature of moose. We compared annual and seasonal moose survival in northeastern Minnesota between 2002 and 2008 with a temperature metric. We found that models based on January temperatures above the critical threshold were inversely correlated with subsequent survival and explained >78 of variability in spring, fall, and annual survival. Models based on late-spring temperatures also explained a high proportion of survival during the subsequent fall. A model based on warm-season temperatures was important in explaining survival during the subsequent winter. Our analyses suggest that temperatures may have a cumulative influence on survival. We expect that continuation or acceleration of current climate trends will result in decreased survival, a decrease in moose density, and ultimately, a retreat of moose northward from their current distribution.

Time trends and determinants of completed family size in a rural community from the Basque area of Spain (1800-1969).

PubMed

Alfonso-Sánchez, Miguel A; Peña, José A; Calderón, Rosario

2003-10-01

The focus of this work is the analysis of changes in completed family size and possible determinants of that size over time, in an attempt to characterize the evolution of reproductive patterns during the demographic transition. With this purpose in mind, time trends are studied in relation to the mean number of live births per family (as an indirect measure of fertility), using family reconstitution techniques to trace the reproductive history of each married woman. The population surveyed is a Spanish rural community called Lanciego, located at the southern end of the province of Alava (Basque Country). A total of 24,510 parish records of baptisms, marriages and burials made between 1800 and 1969 were examined to obtain the demographic data set. For each reconstituted family, the variables included in the study were the number of live births per family or family size (FAMS), year of marriage (YEAR), age at marriage of both partners (AMAN, AWOM), wife's age at the end of marriage (WEND), duration of marriage (MARD), age at first maternity (A1CH), length of reproductive span (REPS) and number of children dying before their first anniversary (MINF). Through a principal component analysis, three factors were found that explained more than 75% of the total variance. Association of variables in factors I and III was particularly useful in characterizing the variability of mean family size in pre-transitional, transitional and post-transitional cohorts. During demographic transition, a decreasing trend is observed in the variables FAMS, REPS and MINF, while variables AWOM, AMAN, WEND and A1CH show a tendency to increase over the 20th century. Results obtained by multiple regression analysis confirm that the best predictors of family size (dependent variable) were REPS and MINF, which between them explained over 85% of the total variation in FAMS (R2 = 0.853). In Lanciego, birth control seems to be present on the evidence of an increase in age at first maternity and a decrease in age at last parturition, indicating that the beginning of the reproductive span is delayed and its end is brought forward. Interaction between family size and infant mortality is discussed in the light of various hypotheses, including replacement of descendants, the so-called biological effect and the theory of r and k selection.

Out of Africa: modern human origins special feature: explaining worldwide patterns of human genetic variation using a coalescent-based serial founder model of migration outward from Africa.

PubMed

DeGiorgio, Michael; Jakobsson, Mattias; Rosenberg, Noah A

2009-09-22

Studies of worldwide human variation have discovered three trends in summary statistics as a function of increasing geographic distance from East Africa: a decrease in heterozygosity, an increase in linkage disequilibrium (LD), and a decrease in the slope of the ancestral allele frequency spectrum. Forward simulations of unlinked loci have shown that the decline in heterozygosity can be described by a serial founder model, in which populations migrate outward from Africa through a process where each of a series of populations is formed from a subset of the previous population in the outward expansion. Here, we extend this approach by developing a retrospective coalescent-based serial founder model that incorporates linked loci. Our model both recovers the observed decline in heterozygosity with increasing distance from Africa and produces the patterns observed in LD and the ancestral allele frequency spectrum. Surprisingly, although migration between neighboring populations and limited admixture between modern and archaic humans can be accommodated in the model while continuing to explain the three trends, a competing model in which a wave of outward modern human migration expands into a series of preexisting archaic populations produces nearly opposite patterns to those observed in the data. We conclude by developing a simpler model to illustrate that the feature that permits the serial founder model but not the archaic persistence model to explain the three trends observed with increasing distance from Africa is its incorporation of a cumulative effect of genetic drift as humans colonized the world.

Analysis of trends in selected streamflow statistics for the Concho River Basin, Texas, 1916-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.; May, Jayne E.

2012-01-01

Six U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were selected for analysis. Streamflow-gaging station 08128000 South Concho River at Christoval has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1931-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128400 Middle Concho River above Tankersley has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1962-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128500 Middle Concho River near Tankersley has no significant trends in the streamflow statistics considered for the period 1931-60. Streamflow-gaging station 08134000 North Concho River near Carlsbad has downward trends for annual mean daily discharge, annual 7-day minimum daily discharge, annual maximum daily discharge, and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the period 1925-2009. Streamflow-gaging stations 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo and 08136500 Concho River at Paint Rock have downward trends for 1916-2009 for all streamflow statistics calculated, but streamflow-gaging station 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo has an upward trend for annual maximum daily discharge during 1964-2009. The downward trends detected during 1916-2009 for the Concho River at San Angelo are not unexpected because of three reservoirs impounding and profoundly regulating streamflow.

Secular changes of the M2 tide in the Gulf of Maine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.

2005-01-01

Analyses of long time series of hourly tide-gauge data at four stations in the Gulf of Maine reveal that the amplitude of the M2 tide underwent a nearly linear secular increase throughout most of the twentieth century. In the early 1980s, however, the amplitude of M2 abruptly dropped. Sea level changes alone appear inadequate to explain either the long-term trend or the recent trend discontinuity. Tidal models that account for Holocene sea level rise do predict an amplification of M2, but much smaller than the currently observed trends. Nor do recent annual mean sea levels correlate with the recent trend discontinuity. Some unknown fraction of the open Atlantic may be similarly affected, since the M2 discontinuity, but not the long-term secular increase in the tide, is evident also at Halifax.

Projection of landfill stabilization period by time series analysis of leachate quality and transformation trends of VOCs.

PubMed

Sizirici, Banu; Tansel, Berrin

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate suitability of using the time series analysis for selected leachate quantity and quality parameters to forecast the duration of post closure period of a closed landfill. Selected leachate quality parameters (i.e., sodium, chloride, iron, bicarbonate, total dissolved solids (TDS), and ammonium as N) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (i.e., vinyl chloride, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, chlorobenzene, benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, total BTEX) were analyzed by the time series multiplicative decomposition model to estimate the projected levels of the parameters. These parameters were selected based on their detection levels and consistency of detection in leachate samples. In addition, VOCs detected in leachate and their chemical transformations were considered in view of the decomposition stage of the landfill. Projected leachate quality trends were analyzed and compared with the maximum contaminant level (MCL) for the respective parameters. Conditions that lead to specific trends (i.e., increasing, decreasing, or steady) and interactions of leachate quality parameters were evaluated. Decreasing trends were projected for leachate quantity, concentrations of sodium, chloride, TDS, ammonia as N, vinyl chloride, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes, and total BTEX. Increasing trends were projected for concentrations of iron, bicarbonate, and chlorobenzene. Anaerobic conditions in landfill provide favorable conditions for corrosion of iron resulting in higher concentrations over time. Bicarbonate formation as a byproduct of bacterial respiration during waste decomposition and the lime rock cap system of the landfill contribute to the increasing levels of bicarbonate in leachate. Chlorobenzene is produced during anaerobic biodegradation of 1,4-dichlorobenzene, hence, the increasing trend of chlorobenzene may be due to the declining trend of 1,4-dichlorobenzene. The time series multiplicative decomposition model in general provides an adequate forecast for future planning purposes for the parameters monitored in leachate. The model projections for 1,4-dichlorobenzene were relatively less accurate in comparison to the projections for vinyl chloride and chlorobenzene. Based on the trends observed, future monitoring needs for the selected leachate parameters were identified.

Education for All: Status and Trends, 1994. Basic Education Population and Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Paris (France). Education for All Forum Secretariat.

This second issue of "Education for All: Status and Trends" focuses on the interactions between basic education and certain demographic and socioeconomic phenomena. It examines significant correlations between selected indicators and the trends in those indicators over a decade or more. It also presents projections of certain indicators to the…

Cross-National Trends in Mortality Rates among the Elderly.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Myers, GeorgeC.

1978-01-01

An examination of death rates among the elderly and trends over the period 1950-1975 and 1970-1975 for selected developed nations provides evidence of continued strong mortality declines for females and somewhat mixed results for males. Implications of these trends for forecasting the mortality component of U.S. population projections are…

Can marital selection explain the differences in health between married and divorced people? From a longitudinal study of a British birth cohort.

PubMed

Cheung, Y B

1998-03-01

In view of the rising divorce rates, the impact of divorce on health has an increasing importance in public health. The differentials in health between the married and the divorced may be explained by 'marital selection' and 'marital protection'. Using longitudinal data from a study of the 1958 British birth cohort, factors that select people into divorce were identified from the areas of socio-economic status, health, and attractiveness, which included physical attractiveness, health-related behaviour and temperament. Evidence for both positive and adverse selection is found. The different sets of selection factors for females and males appear to be in line with gender role expectations. The health differentials between married and divorced men were weak and can be explained away by the selection factors. Having controlled for the selection effects, there were still significant associations between divorce and physical and psychological health in women. Though these unexplained differentials cannot be definitely interpreted as the consequences of marital dissolution, this interpretation remains plausible.

Trends in selected streamflow and stream-channel characteristics for the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Kunze, Allison E.

2002-01-01

Monotonic upward trends in annual mean streamflows and annual 7-day low flows were identified statistically for the streamflow-gaging station on the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio. No monotonic trends were identified for the annual peak streamflow series or partial-duration series of peak streamflows augmented with annual peak streamflows that did not exceed a base discharge of 4,000 cubic feet per second. A plot of cumulative departure of annual precipitation from the long-term mean annual precipitation for the weather-observation station at Hiram, Ohio, indicates a relatively dry period extending from about 1910 to about 1968, followed by a relatively wet period extending from about 1968 to the late 1990s. A plot of cumulative departure of annual mean streamflow from the mean annual streamflow for the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio, closely mimics the shape of the precipitation departure plot, indicating that the annual mean streamflows increased in concert with annual precipitation. These synchronous trends likely explain why upward trends in annual mean streamflows and annual 7-day low flows were observed. A lack of trend in peak streamflows indicates that the intensity and severity of flood-producing storms did not increase appreciably along with the increases in annual precipitation. An analysis of point-of-zero-flow data indicates that the low-water control of the Chagrin River streamflow-gaging station tended to aggrade over the period 1930?93; however, the magnitude of aggradation is sufficiently small that its effect on stages of moderate to large floods would be negligible. Stage values associated with reference streamflows of 500 and 5,000 cubic feet per second tended to remain fairly stable during the period from about 1950 to 1970 and then decreased slightly during the period from about 1970 to 1980, suggesting that the flood-carrying capacity of the stream increased somewhat during the latter period. Since a large flood on May 26, 1989, significant changes have occurred in the relation between stage and streamflow. The most recent relation indicates that stage values associated with streamflows of 500 and 5,000 cubic feet per second are about 0.5 foot and 0.1 foot higher, respectively, than the pre-1989 levels.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers' Adaptations.

PubMed

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008-2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4-66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers' practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers’ Adaptations

PubMed Central

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008–2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4–66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers’ practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations. PMID:28900435

Changes in the intensity of Mediterranean precipitation: a comparison of east/west trends and their causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodess, C. M.; Jones, P. D.

2003-04-01

Changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation over the last 40 years have been investigated for the Iberian Peninsula and Greece. Over much of the Mediterranean the general tendency is towards decreasing precipitation, but the pattern of change is complex, particularly with respect to extremes. Over most of the Iberian Peninsula, the last 40 years has seen a trend towards more, but less wet rain days. However, in southeast Spain, the reverse has occurred, with more wet days with high precipitation amounts. Over Greece, the main tendency is towards fewer rain days, with little change in rain day amount, which is strongest over the Ionian and Aegean Seas and in winter. A few places, such as Rhodes, do however, show a weak trend towards more intense precipitation events in autumn. The precipitation changes observed over the Iberian Peninsula can, in part, be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation. They are associated with a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic circulation types and increases in the frequency of anticyclonic, easterly and south-easterly types (which can in turn be linked with changes in the intensity of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the frequency and intensity of Mediterranean and Atlantic cyclones). However, precipitation trends simulated by regression models with circulation-type frequency as the predictor variables are weaker than observed. The observed changes in circulation-type frequency over Greece (such as the increase in the frequency of the 'high-precipitation' cyclonic types and decrease in the 'low-precipitation' anticyclonic types) indicate an increase in precipitation. This is in contrast to the observed precipitation decreases. All the regression models underestimate year-to-year variability, and have problems in reproducing the observed trends. The common problems in both regions indicate that different forms of model may be required. The finding that the selected predictor variables are more successful at reproducing the observed precipitation trends in Spain than Greece, indicates different underlying physical processes which require further investigation. Goodess, CM and Jones, PD, 2002: Links between circulation and changes in the characteristics of Iberian precipitation, Int. J. Climatol. 22, 1593-1615. Acknowledgements: This work (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/nerc.htm) was funded by the Commission of the European Union as part of the ACCORD project and by the UK Natural Environment Research Council.

Hypertension: variations in prevalence in the black population.

PubMed

Kelly, E; Oni, A

1989-03-01

Prevalence trends in hypertension in black men and women show an inversion at about ages 45 to 54 years. Incidence, mortality, and treatment of hypertension after age 35 can probably be related to this inversion. Incidence data are inconsistent and scanty. Morbidity data are incomplete and mostly unreliable. Mortality data partially explain the inversion. Long-term epidemiologic studies of hypertension in black elderly persons are needed to explain these variations in prevalence, which may have a beneficial impact on treatment and prognosis.

Deposition of selenium and other constituents in reservoir bottom sediment of the Solomon River Basin, north-central Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, Victoria G.

1999-01-01

The Solomon River drains approximately 6,840 square miles of mainly agricultural land in north-central Kansas. The Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Department of the Interior, has begun a Resource Management Assessment (RMA) of the Solomon River Basin to provide the necessary data for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) compliance before renewal of long-term water-service contracts with irrigation districts in the basin. In May 1998, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected bottom-sediment cores from Kirwin and Webster Reservoirs, which are not affected by Bureau irrigation, and Waconda Lake, which receives water from both Bureau and non-Bureau irrigated lands. The cores were analyzed for selected physical properties, total recoverable metals, nutrients, cesium-137, and total organic carbon. Spearman's rho correlations and Kendall's tau trend tests were done for sediment concentrations in cores from each reservoir. Selenium, arsenic, and strontium were the only constituents that showed an increasing trend in concentrations for core samples from more than one reservoir. Concentrations and trends for these three constituents were compared to information on historical irrigation to determine any causal effect. Increases in selenium, arsenic, and strontium concentrations can not be completely explained by Bureau irrigation. However, mean selenium, arsenic, and strontium concentrations in sediment from all three reservoirs may be related to total irrigated acres (Bureau and non-Bureau irrigation) in the basin. Selenium, arsenic, and strontium loads were calculated for Webster Reservoir to determine if annual loads deposited in the reservoir were increasing along with constituent concentrations. Background selenium, arsenic, and strontium loads in Webster Reservoir are significantly larger than post-background loads.

Cardiovascular mortality sex differentials in selected East Asian and Western populations.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiaying; Booth, Heather; Dear, Keith; Tu, Edward Jow-Ching

2016-10-01

Explaining patterns in the sex ratio (male/female) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality would improve understanding of mortality transitions under modernisation. Little research has examined secular trends in this ratio across populations, taking age and cohort into account. We examine cohort effects in the ratios of CVD mortality (including ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease) among 4 East Asian populations that vary in the timing of their modernisation, and assess the effect of smoking on these patterns in comparison with Western populations. The sequential method for log-linear models is applied to analyse age, period and cohort effects for sex ratios. Age and cohort effects are fitted first, with population as offset; period effects are fitted in a second model using the fitted values from the first model as the offset. Lung cancer mortality serves as a proxy for smoking. Increases in sex ratios of CVD mortality began in earlier cohorts in Western than in East Asian populations. Once begun, increases were more rapid in East Asia. The cohort effect for the sex ratio of CVD mortality differs from that for lung cancer mortality. Trends in sex ratios of CVD mortality by cohort are similar before and after adjustment for lung cancer mortality in East Asia; the increasing trend across 1900-1945 cohorts is maintained in Western populations after adjustment. The sex ratio of CVD mortality has increased across successive cohorts living in increasingly modernised environments. There is scant evidence that this increase is attributable to changing sex-specific rates of smoking. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

A demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility.

PubMed

Bongaarts, John; Sobotka, Tomáš

2012-01-01

Between 1998 and 2008 European countries experienced the first continent-wide increase in the period total fertility rate (TFR) since the 1960s. After discussing period and cohort influences on fertility trends, we examine the role of tempo distortions of period fertility and different methods for removing them. We highlight the usefulness of a new indicator: the tempo- and parity-adjusted total fertility rate (TFRp*). This variant of the adjusted total fertility rate proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney also controls for the parity composition of the female population and provides more stable values than the indicators proposed in the past. Finally, we estimate levels and trends in tempo and parity distribution distortions in selected countries in Europe. Our analysis of period and cohort fertility indicators in the Czech Republic, Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden shows that the new adjusted measure gives a remarkable fit with the completed fertility of women in prime childbearing years in a given period, which suggests that it provides an accurate adjustment for tempo and parity composition distortions. Using an expanded dataset for ten countries, we demonstrate that adjusted fertility as measured by TFRp* remained nearly stable since the late 1990s. This finding implies that the recent upturns in the period TFR in Europe are largely explained by a decline in the pace of fertility postponement. Other tempo-adjusted fertility indicators have not indicated such a large role for the diminishing tempo effect in these TFR upturns. As countries proceed through their postponement transitions, tempo effects will decline further and eventually disappear, thus putting continued upward pressure on period fertility. However, such an upward trend may be obscured for a few years by the effects of economic recession.

Drought offset ecological restoration program-induced increase in vegetation activity in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region, China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhitao; Wu, Jianjun; He, Bin; Liu, Jinghui; Wang, Qianfeng; Zhang, Hong; Liu, Yong

2014-10-21

To improve the ecological conditions, the Chinese government adopted six large-scale ecological restoration programs including 'Three-North Shelterbelt Project', "Grain for Green Project" and "Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Project". Meanwhile, these ecologically vulnerable areas have experienced frequent droughts. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of drought on the effectiveness of these programs. Taking Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR) as study area, we investigated the role of droughts and ecological restoration program on trends of vegetation activities and to address the question of a possible "drought signal" in assessing effectiveness of ecological restoration program. The results demonstrate the following: (1) Vegetation activity increased in the BTSSR during 2000-2010, with 58.44% of the study area showing an increased NDVI, of which 11.80% had a significant increase at 0.95 confidential level. The decreasing NDVI trends were mainly concentrated in a southwest-to-northeast strip in the study area. (2) Drought was the main driving force for a decreasing trend of vegetation activity in the southwest-to-northeast regions of the BTSSR at the regional and spatial scales. Summer droughts in 2007 and 2009 contributed to the decreasing trend in NDVI. The severe and extreme droughts in summer reduced the NDVI by approximately 13.06% and 23.55%, respectively. (3) The residual analysis result showed that human activities, particularly the ecological restoration programs, have a positive impact on vegetation change. Hence, the decreasing trends in the southwest-to-northeast regions of the BTSSR cannot be explained by the improper ecological restoration program and is partly explained by droughts, especially summer droughts. Therefore, drought offset the ecological restoration program-induced increase in vegetation activity in the BTSSR.

Comparisons between consumption estimates from bioenergetics simulations and field measurements for walleyes from Oneida Lake, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lantry, B.F.; Rudstam, L. G.; Forney, J.L.; VanDeValk, A.J.; Mills, E.L.; Stewart, D.J.; Adams, J.V.

2008-01-01

Daily consumption was estimated from the stomach contents of walleyes Sander vitreus collected weekly from Oneida Lake, New York, during June-October 1975, 1992, 1993, and 1994 for one to four age-groups per year. Field rations were highly variable between weeks, and trends in ration size varied both seasonally and annually. The coefficient of variation for weekly field rations within years and ages ranged from 45% to 97%. Field estimates were compared with simulated consumption from a bioenergetics model. The simulation averages of daily ration deviated from those of the field estimates by -20.1% to +70.3%, with a mean across all simulations of +14.3%. The deviations for each time step were much greater than those for the simulation averages, ranging from -92.8% to +363.6%. A systematic trend in the deviations was observed, the model producing overpredictions at rations less than 3.7% of body weight. Analysis of variance indicated that the deviations were affected by sample year and week but not age. Multiple linear regression using backwards selection procedures and Akaike's information criterion indicated that walleye weight, walleye growth, lake temperature, prey energy density, and the proportion of gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum in the diet significantly affected the deviations between simulated and field rations and explained 32% of the variance. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Jung, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2005-01-01

Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002-2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

National Water-Quality Assessment Program; the Allegheny-Monongahela River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McAuley, Steven D.

1995-01-01

In 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. The three major objectives of the NAWQA program are to provide a consistent description of current water-quality conditions for a large part of the Nation's water resources, define long-term trends in water quality, and identify, describe, and explain the major factors that affect water-quality conditions and trends. The program produces water-quality information that is useful to policy makers and managers at the National, State, and local levels.The program will be implemented through 60 separate investigations of river basins and aquifer systems called study units. These study-unit investigations will be conducted at the State and local level and will form the foundation on which national- and regional-level assessments are based. The 60 study units are hydrologic systems that include parts of most major river basins and aquifer systems. The study-unit areas range from 1,000 to more than 60,000 square miles and include about 60 to 70 percent of the Nation's water use and population served by public water supplies. Twenty studyunit investigations were started in 1991, 20 started in 1994, and 20 more are planned to start in 1997. The Allegheny-Monongahela River Basin was selected to begin assessment activities as a NAWQA study unit in 1994. The study team will work from the office of the USGS in Pittsburgh, Pa.

Chemistry by Way of Density Functional Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.; Ricca, Alessandra; Partridge, Harry; Langohff, Stephen R.; Arnold, James O. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

In this work we demonstrate that density functional theory (DFT) methods make an important contribution to understanding chemical systems and are an important additional method for the computational chemist. We report calibration calculations obtained with different functionals for the 55 G2 molecules to justify our selection of the B3LYP functional. We show that accurate geometries and vibrational frequencies obtained at the B3LYP level can be combined with traditional methods to simplify the calculation of accurate heats of formation. We illustrate the application of the B3LYP approach to a variety of chemical problems from the vibrational frequencies of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to transition metal systems. We show that the B3LYP method typically performs better than the MP2 method at a significantly lower computational cost. Thus the B3LYP method allows us to extend our studies to much larger systems while maintaining a high degree of accuracy. We show that for transition metal systems, the B3LYP bond energies are typically of sufficient accuracy that they can be used to explain experimental trends and even differentiate between different experimental values. We show that for boron clusters the B3LYP energetics are not as good as for many of the other systems presented, but even in this case the B3LYP approach is able to help understand the experimental trends.

Labour force activity after 65: what explain recent trends in Denmark, Germany and Sweden?

PubMed

Larsen, Mona; Pedersen, Peder J

2017-01-01

In most OECD member countries labour force attachment, has increased in recent years not only in the age groups 60-64 years but also among people 65 years and older. Focus in this paper is on the trend in older workers' labour force participation in Denmark, Germany and Sweden since 2004. Main emphasis is given to people aged 65-69 years eligible for social security retirement programs from age 65. The gender aspect is included to accommodate different trends for women and men. To explain country differences in trends, the importance of changes in retirement policies of relevance for this age group and cohort relevant changes in education and health is examined and discussed. Further, country differences in the impact from education and health is examined. Results show that the largest increase in labour force participation among people aged 65-69 years has taken place in Sweden following by Germany, while the increase in Denmark is rather small. While the increase in Germany mainly seems to be a result of policy reforms, the increase in Sweden appear to be a result of a combination of policy changes and an increasing educational level. Financial incentives seem most important in Germany and only of minor importance in Denmark, where policy changes directed towards individuals above the age of 65 appear to have been too small so far to affect retirement behaviour significantly.

[Trend in mortality from external causes in pregnant and postpartum women and its relationship to socioeconomic factors in Colombia, 1998-2010].

PubMed

Salazar, Edwin; Buitrago, Carolina; Molina, Federico; Alzate, Catalina Arango

2015-05-01

Determine the trend in mortality from external causes in pregnant and postpartum women and its relationship to socioeconomic factors. Descriptive study, based on the official registries of deaths reported by the National Statistics Agency, 1998-2010. The trend was analyzed using Poisson regressions. Bivariate correlations and multiple linear regression models were constructed to explore the relationship between mortality and socioeconomic factors: human development index, Gini index, gross domestic product, unsatisfied basic needs, unemployment rate, poverty, extreme poverty, quality of life index, illiteracy rate, and percentage of affiliation to the Social Security System. A total of 2 223 female deaths from external causes were recorded, of which 1 429 occurred during pregnancy and 794 in the postpartum period. The gross mortality rate dropped from 30.7 per 100 000 live births plus fetal deaths in 1998 to 16.7 in 2010. A downward curve with no significant inflection points was shown in the risk of dying from this cause. The multiple linear regression model showed a correlation between mortality and extreme poverty and the illiteracy rate, suggesting that these indicators could explain 89.4% of the change in mortality from external causes in pregnant and postpartum women each year in Colombia. Mortality from external causes in pregnant and postpartum women showed a significant downward trend that may be explained by important socioeconomic changes in the country, including a decrease in extreme poverty and in the illiteracy rate.

Launch commit criteria performance trending analysis, phase 1, revision A. SRM and QA mission services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

An assessment of quantitative methods and measures for measuring launch commit criteria (LCC) performance measurement trends is made. A statistical performance trending analysis pilot study was processed and compared to STS-26 mission data. This study used four selected shuttle measurement types (solid rocket booster, external tank, space shuttle main engine, and range safety switch safe and arm device) from the five missions prior to mission 51-L. After obtaining raw data coordinates, each set of measurements was processed to obtain statistical confidence bounds and mean data profiles for each of the selected measurement types. STS-26 measurements were compared to the statistical data base profiles to verify the statistical capability of assessing occurrences of data trend anomalies and abnormal time-varying operational conditions associated with data amplitude and phase shifts.

Decahydrobenzoquinolin-5-one sigma receptor ligands: Divergent development of both sigma 1 and sigma 2 receptor selective examples.

PubMed

McLeod, Michael C; Aubé, Jeffrey; Frankowski, Kevin J

2016-12-01

Analogues of the decahydrobenzoquinolin-5-one class of sigma (σ) receptor ligands were used to probe the structure-activity relationship trends for this recently discovered series of σ ligands. In all, 29 representatives were tested for σ and opioid receptor affinity, leading to the identification of compounds possessing improved σ 1 selectivity and, for the first time in this series, examples possessing preferential σ 2 affinity. Several structural features associated with these selectivity trends have been identified. Two analogues of improved selectivity were evaluated in a binding panel of 43 CNS-relevant targets to confirm their sigma receptor preference. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DISSOLVED ORGANIC CARBON TRENDS RESULTING FROM CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION CHEMISTRY

EPA Science Inventory

Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain recent, widespread increases in concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the surface waters of glaciated landscapes across eastern North America and northern and central Europe. Some invoke anthropogenic forcing through ...

Energy Equity Lost and Found: Rebuilding America's K-12 Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schoff, Lorenz V.

1999-01-01

Discusses reversing the trend of school-building deterioration and inefficient energy usage through the Rebuild America program. Explains what Rebuild America is and why schools should join the program. Also provided are overviews of successful programs involving schools. (GR)

Dynamical adjustment of Scandinavian glacier mass-balance time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonan, D.; Christian, J. E.; Christianson, K. A.

2017-12-01

Glacier mass wastage is often cited as one of the most visible manifestations of anthropogenic climate change. Annual glacier mass-balance is related to local climate and atmospheric circulation, as it is defined as the yearly sum of accumulation and ablation—processes that are strongly influenced by year-to-year fluctuations in precipitation and temperature. Glacier response to a climatic trend can, however, be masked by internal variability in atmospheric circulation, and by non-climatic factors (such as topographic control, wind deposition, and incident solar radiation). Thus, unambiguous attribution of a negative glacier mass-balance trend to anthropogenic forcing remains challenging. Maritime glacier mass-balance records may be especially difficult to interpret due to the high winter balances from decadal-scale climate oscillations and the relatively short time series. Here we examine the influence of climate and atmospheric circulation variability on 14 Norwegian glaciers that span 20° of latitude, from southern Norway to Svalbard. We use dynamical adjustment—a statistical method based on partial least squares regression—to identify the components of variability within the mass-balance records that are associated with the time-varying sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) fields. We find that 30-50% of the variance in the winter mass-balance records of the glaciers in southern Norway is explained by using sea level pressure as a predictor. The leading SLP predictor pattern mimics the spatial signature of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), indicating that winter balance is strongly influenced by the NAO. Moreover, the adjusted mass-balance records indicate a geographic trend: the southern Norwegian glaciers have significant negative trends in the summer balance that remain negative after adjustment, while the more northern glaciers have negative winter balance trends that only become significant after adjustment. We look into anthropogenic warming to explain the trends after dynamical adjustment.

Understanding observed and simulated historical temperature trends in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C. J.; Duffy, P. B.; Santer, B. D.; Lobell, D. B.; Wigley, T. M.

2006-12-01

In our study, we attempt 1) to improve our understanding of observed historical temperature trends and their underlying causes in the context of regional detection of climate change and 2) to identify possible neglected forcings and errors in the model response to imposed forcings at the origin of inconsistencies between models and observations. From eight different observational datasets, we estimate California-average temperature trends over 1950- 1999 and compare them to trends from a suite of IPCC control simulations of natural internal climate variability. We find that the substantial night-time warming occurring from January to September is inconsistent with model-based estimates of natural internal climate variability, and thus requires one or more external forcing agents to be explained. In contrast, we find that a significant day-time warming occurs only from January to March. Our confidence in these findings is increased because there is no evidence that the models systematically underestimate noise on interannual and decadal timescales. However, we also find that IPCC simulations of the 20th century that include combined anthropogenic and natural forcings are not able to reproduce such a pronounced seasonality of the trends. Our first hypothesis is that the warming of Californian winters over the second half of the twentieth century is associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation that are likely to be human-induced. This circulation change is underestimated in the historical simulations, which may explain why the simulated warming of Californian winters is too weak. We also hypothesize that the lack of a detectable observed increase in summertime maximum temperature arises from a cooling associated with large-scale irrigation. This cooling may have, until now, counteracted the warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases and urbanization effects. Omitting to include this forcing in the simulations can result in overestimating the summertime maximum temperature trends. We conduct an empirical study based on observed climate and irrigation changes to evaluate this assumption.

Regional assessment of trends in vegetation change dynamics using principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osunmadewa, B. A.; Csaplovics, E.; R. A., Majdaldin; Adeofun, C. O.; Aralova, D.

2016-10-01

Vegetation forms the basis for the existence of animal and human. Due to changes in climate and human perturbation, most of the natural vegetation of the world has undergone some form of transformation both in composition and structure. Increased anthropogenic activities over the last decades had pose serious threat on the natural vegetation in Nigeria, many vegetated areas are either transformed to other land use such as deforestation for agricultural purpose or completely lost due to indiscriminate removal of trees for charcoal, fuelwood and timber production. This study therefore aims at examining the rate of change in vegetation cover, the degree of change and the application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in the dry sub-humid region of Nigeria using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data spanning from 1983-2011. The method used for the analysis is the T-mode orientation approach also known as standardized PCA, while trends are examined using ordinary least square, median trend (Theil-Sen) and monotonic trend. The result of the trend analysis shows both positive and negative trend in vegetation change dynamics over the 29 years period examined. Five components were used for the Principal Component Analysis. The results of the first component explains about 98 % of the total variance of the vegetation (NDVI) while components 2-5 have lower variance percentage (< 1%). Two ancillary land use land cover data of 2000 and 2009 from European Space Agency (ESA) were used to further explain changes observed in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. The result of the land use data shows changes in land use pattern which can be attributed to anthropogenic activities such as cutting of trees for charcoal production, fuelwood and agricultural practices. The result of this study shows the ability of remote sensing data for monitoring vegetation change in the dry-sub humid region of Nigeria.

Cause-specific sickness absence trends by occupational class and industrial sector in the context of recent labour market changes: a Finnish panel data study

PubMed Central

Leinonen, Taina; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Husgafvel-Pursiainen, Kirsti; Solovieva, Svetlana

2018-01-01

Objectives We aimed to provide previously unestablished information on population-based differences in cause-specific sickness absence trends between occupational classes and further between four large industrial sectors within the different occupational classes while controlling for other socioeconomic factors and employment patterns. We focused on the period 2005–2013, during which the labour market underwent large economic and structural changes in many countries. Design Register-based panel data study. Setting Large representative datasets on Finnish wage earners aged 25–59 years. Outcome measure Annual risk of sickness absence (>10 working days) based on repeated logistic regression. Results Between 2005 and 2013, the proportion of employees with sickness absence decreased. Occupational class differences in sickness absence trends varied by disease group. Overall, the decrease in absences was smallest among lower non-manual employees. Sickness absence levels were highest in the health and social work sector and in the manufacturing sector within the non-manual and manual classes, respectively. Absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily during the peak of the economic recession in 2009, particularly in the manufacturing sector within the manual class. The decrease in absences due to musculoskeletal diseases was smallest in the trade sector within the lower occupational classes. Overall, education, income and employment patterns partly explained the differences in the absence levels, but not in the trends. Conclusions We found a complex interplay between the associations of occupational class and industrial sector with sickness absence trends. During the economic recession, absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily in a segment of wage earners who were known to have been hit hard by the recession. However, the trend differences were not explained by the measured structural changes in the characteristics of the study population. Both occupational class and industrial sector should be taken into account when tackling problems of work disability. PMID:29627810

Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians.

PubMed

Antero-Jacquemin, Juliana da Silva; Berthelot, Geoffroy; Marck, Adrien; Noirez, Philippe; Latouche, Aurélien; Toussaint, Jean-François

2015-08-01

Life-span trends progression has worldwide practical implications as it may affect the sustainability of modern societies. We aimed to describe the secular life-span trends of populations with a propensity to live longer-Olympians and supercentenarians-under two hypotheses: an ongoing life-span extension versus a biologic "probabilistic barrier" limiting further progression. In a study of life-span densities (total number of life durations per birth date), we analyzed 19,012 Olympians and 1,205 supercentenarians deceased between 1900 and 2013. Among most Olympians, we observed a trend toward increased life duration. This trend, however, decelerates at advanced ages leveling off with the upper values with a perennial gap between Olympians and supercentenarians during the whole observation period. Similar tendencies are observed among supercentenarians, and over the last years, a plateau attests to a stable longevity pattern among the longest-lived humans. The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic "barrier" forecast. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.

A Conceptual Characterization of Online Videos Explaining Natural Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bohlin, Gustav; Göransson, Andreas; Höst, Gunnar E.; Tibell, Lena A. E.

2017-01-01

Educational videos on the Internet comprise a vast and highly diverse source of information. Online search engines facilitate access to numerous videos claiming to explain natural selection, but little is known about the degree to which the video content match key evolutionary content identified as important in evolution education research. In…

An Attempt to Influence Selected Portions of Student Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Edwin R.

In an attempt to selectively improve student performance, one-half of a set of difficult test items from a FORTRAN programming class had handouts explaining the concepts underlying the items distributed to the students. Each handout contained a written learning objective, a short prose passage explaining the objective, and one or more practice…

Nitrogen oxides and ozone in Portugal: trends and ozone estimation in an urban and a rural site.

PubMed

Fernández-Guisuraga, José Manuel; Castro, Amaya; Alves, Célia; Calvo, Ana; Alonso-Blanco, Elisabeth; Blanco-Alegre, Carlos; Rocha, Alfredo; Fraile, Roberto

2016-09-01

This study provides an analysis of the spatial distribution and trends of NO, NO2 and O3 concentrations in Portugal between 1995 and 2010. Furthermore, an estimation model for daily ozone concentrations was developed for an urban and a rural site. NO concentration showed a significant decreasing trend in most urban stations. A decreasing trend in NO2 is only observed in the stations with less influence from emissions of primary NO2. Several stations showed a significant upward trend in O3 as a result of the decrease in the NO/NO2 ratio. In the northern rural region, ozone showed a strong correlation with wind direction, highlighting the importance of long-range transport. In the urban site, most of the variance is explained by the NO2/NOX ratio. The results obtained by the ozone estimation model in the urban site fit 2013 observed data. In the rural site, the estimated ozone during extreme events agrees with observed concentration.

Recent Trends of Summer Convective and Stratiform Precipitation in Mid-Eastern China

PubMed Central

Fu, Yunfei; Chen, Fengjiao; Liu, Guosheng; Yang, Yuanjian; Yuan, Renmin; Li, Rui; Liu, Qi; Wang, Yu; Zhong, Lei; Sun, Liang

2016-01-01

Many studies have reported on the trends of precipitation in Mid-Eastern China (EC). However, the trends of convective and stratiform precipitation are still unknown. Here, we examine the trends of summer convective and stratiform precipitation in EC from 2002 to 2012 on the basis of the TRMM observations. Results revealed that the rain frequency (RF) for both convective and stratiform precipitation increased in majority regions of Southern EC (SEC), but decreased in Northwest part of Northern EC (NEC). The decreasing rate of RF for stratiform precipitation in NEC is twice as much as that for convective precipitation, while the increase of convective precipitation in SEC is more evident than stratiform precipitation. The rain rate (RR) exhibited a decreasing trend in most portions of EC for both convective and stratiform precipitation. In SEC, neither PW nor WVT has good ability in explaining the precipitation variability. However, in NEC, PW is closely correlated to convective RF and WVT is more closely related to stratiform RF. PMID:27604846

Oviductal epithelial cells selected boar sperm according to their functional characteristics

PubMed Central

López-Úbeda, Rebeca; García-Vázquez, Francisco A; Gadea, Joaquín; Matás, Carmen

2017-01-01

The interaction of oviductal epithelial cells (OECs) with the spermatozoa has beneficial effects on the sperm functions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the in vitro fertilizing capacity of incubating spermatozoa previously selected by density gradient in OEC and determinate some sperm characteristics that could explain the results obtained. In this study, we assessed in vitro fertilization (IVF), tyrosine phosphorylation, phosphatidylserine translocation, nuclear DNA fragmentation, and chromatin decondensation. Three experimental sperm groups, previously selected by Percoll gradient, were established according to the origin of the sperm used for IVF: (i) W30 group: spermatozoa were incubated with oocytes in the absence of OEC; (ii) NB group: after sperm incubation in OEC, the unbound spermatozoa were incubated with oocytes, in the absence of OEC; and (iii) B group: after sperm incubation with OEC, the bound spermatozoa were incubated with oocytes in the OEC plates. The results showed that sperm from the NB group led to a lower IVF yield, accompanied by low penetration rates (NB: 19.6%, B: 94.9%, and W30: 62.9%; P < 0.001) and problems of nuclear decondensation. Moreover, higher levels of tyrosine phosphorylation were observed in the NB group compared with the W30 and B groups (NB: 58.7%, B: 2.5%, and W30: 4.5%; P < 0.01). A similar trend was observed in phosphatidylserine translocation (NB: 93.7%, B: 5.7%, and W30: 44.2%; P < 0.01). These results demonstrate that the OEC exerts a rigorous degree of sperm selection, even within an already highly selected population of spermatozoa, and can capture the best functional spermatozoa for fertilization. PMID:27232850

Widespread land surface wind decline in the Northern Hemisphere partly attributed to land surface changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thepaut, J.; Vautard, R.; Cattiaux, J.; Yiou, P.; Ciais, P.

2010-12-01

The decline of surface wind observed in many regions of the world is a potential source of concern for wind power electricity generation. It is also suggested as the main cause of decreasing pan evaporation. In China, a persistent and significant decrease of monsoon winds was observed in all seasons. Surface wind declines were also evidenced in several regions of the world (U.S., Australia, several European countries). Except over China, no clear explanation was given for the wind decrease in the regions studied. Whether surface winds decrease is due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation or its variability, in surface processes or to observational trends has therefore not been elucidated. The identification of the drivers of such a decline requires a global investigation of available surface and upper-air wind data, which has not been conducted so far. Here we use global datasets of in-situ wind measurements that contain surface weather stations wind data (hourly or three-hourly data acquisition time step) and rawinsonde vertical wind data profiles (monthly time step) prepared by the NCAR. A set of 822 worldwide surface stations with continuous wind records was selected after a careful elimination of stations with obvious breaks and large gaps. This dataset mostly covers the Northern mid latitudes over the period 1979-2008. Using this data set, we found that annual mean wind speeds have declined at 73% of the surface stations over the past 30 years. In the Northern Hemisphere, positive wind trends are found only in a few places. In Europe, Central Asia, Eastern Asia and in North America the annual mean surface wind speed has decreased on average at a rate of -2.9, -5.9, -4.2, and -1.8 %/decade respectively, i.e. a decrease of about 10% in 30 years and up to about 20% in Central Asia. These results are robust to changes in the station selection method and parameters. By contrast, upper-air winds observed from rawinsondes, geostrophic winds deduced from pressure gradients, and modeled winds from weather re-analyses do not exhibit any comparable stilling trends than at surface stations. For instance, large-scale circulation changes captured in the most recent European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast re-analysis (ERA-interim) can only explain only up to 10-50% of the wind stilling, depending on the region. In addition, a significant amount of the slow-down could originate from a generalized increase in surface roughness, due for instance to forest growth and expansion, and urbanization. This hypothesis, which could explain up to 60% of the decline, is supported by remote sensing observations and theoretical calculations combined with meso-scale model simulations. For future wind power energy resource, the part of wind decline due to land cover changes is easier to cope with than that due to global atmospheric circulation slow down.

Explaining the increasing disability prevalence among mid-life US adults, 2002 to 2016.

PubMed

Zajacova, Anna; Montez, Jennifer Karas

2018-05-24

Several recent studies have documented an alarming upward trend in disability and functional limitations among US adults. In this study, we draw on the sociomedical Disablement Process framework to produce up-to-date estimates of the trends and identify key social and medical precursors of the trends. Using data on US adults aged 45-64 in the 2002-2016 National Health Interview Surveys, we estimate parametric and semiparametric models of disability and functional limitations as a function of interview time. We also determine the impact of socioeconomic resources, health behaviors, and health conditions on the trends. Our results show increasing prevalence of disability and functional limitations. These trends reflect the net result of complex countervailing forces, some associated with increases in functioning problems (unfavorable trends in economic well-being, especially income, and psychological distress) while other factors have suppressed the growth of functioning problems (favorable trends in educational attainment and some health behaviors, such as smoking and alcohol use). The results underscore that disability prevention must expand beyond medical interventions to include fundamental social factors and be focused on preventing or delaying the onset of chronic health problems and functional limitations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microstructure selection in thin-sample directional solidification of an Al-Cu alloy: In situ X-ray imaging and phase-field simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clarke, A. J.; Tourret, D.; Song, Y.

We study microstructure selection during during directional solidification of a thin metallic sample. We combine in situ X-ray radiography of a dilute Al-Cu alloy solidification experiments with three-dimensional phase-field simulations. Here we explore a range of temperature gradient G and growth velocity V and build a microstructure selection map for this alloy. We investigate the selection of the primary dendritic spacing Λ and tip radius ρ. While ρ shows a good agreement between experimental measurements and dendrite growth theory, with ρ~V $-$1/2, Λ is observed to increase with V (∂Λ/∂V > 0), in apparent disagreement with classical scaling laws formore » primary dendritic spacing, which predict that ∂Λ/∂V<0. We show through simulations that this trend inversion for Λ(V) is due to liquid convection in our experiments, despite the thin sample configuration. We use a classical diffusion boundary-layer approximation to semi-quantitatively incorporate the effect of liquid convection into phase-field simulations. This approximation is implemented by assuming complete solute mixing outside a purely diffusive zone of constant thickness that surrounds the solid-liquid interface. This simple method enables us to quantitatively match experimental measurements of the planar morphological instability threshold and primary spacings over an order of magnitude in V. Lastly, we explain the observed inversion of ∂Λ/∂V by a combination of slow transient dynamics of microstructural homogenization and the influence of the sample thickness.« less

Microstructure selection in thin-sample directional solidification of an Al-Cu alloy: In situ X-ray imaging and phase-field simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clarke, A. J.; Tourret, D.; Song, Y.

We study microstructure selection during directional solidification of a thin metallic sample. We combine in situ X-ray radiography of a dilute Al-Cu alloy solidification experiments with three-dimensional phase-field simulations. We explore a range of temperature gradient G and growth velocity V and build a microstructure selection map for this alloy. We investigate the selection of the primary dendritic spacing Lambda and tip radius rho. While rho shows a good agreement between experimental measurements and dendrite growth theory, with rho similar to V-1/2, Lambda is observed to increase with V (partial derivative Lambda/partial derivative V > 0), in apparent disagreement withmore » classical scaling laws for primary dendritic spacing, which predict that partial derivative Lambda/partial derivative V <0. We show through simulations that this trend inversion for Lambda(V) is due to liquid convection in our experiments, despite the thin sample configuration. We use a classical diffusion boundary-layer approximation to semi-quantitatively incorporate the effect of liquid convection into phase-field simulations. This approximation is implemented by assuming complete solute mixing outside a purely diffusive zone of constant thickness that surrounds the solid-liquid interface. This simple method enables us to quantitatively match experimental measurements of the planar morphological instability threshold and primary spacings over an order of magnitude in V. We explain the observed inversion of partial derivative Lambda/partial derivative V by a combination of slow transient dynamics of microstructural homogenization and the influence of the sample thickness.« less

Microstructure selection in thin-sample directional solidification of an Al-Cu alloy: In situ X-ray imaging and phase-field simulations

DOE PAGES

Clarke, A. J.; Tourret, D.; Song, Y.; ...

2017-05-01

We study microstructure selection during during directional solidification of a thin metallic sample. We combine in situ X-ray radiography of a dilute Al-Cu alloy solidification experiments with three-dimensional phase-field simulations. Here we explore a range of temperature gradient G and growth velocity V and build a microstructure selection map for this alloy. We investigate the selection of the primary dendritic spacing Λ and tip radius ρ. While ρ shows a good agreement between experimental measurements and dendrite growth theory, with ρ~V $-$1/2, Λ is observed to increase with V (∂Λ/∂V > 0), in apparent disagreement with classical scaling laws formore » primary dendritic spacing, which predict that ∂Λ/∂V<0. We show through simulations that this trend inversion for Λ(V) is due to liquid convection in our experiments, despite the thin sample configuration. We use a classical diffusion boundary-layer approximation to semi-quantitatively incorporate the effect of liquid convection into phase-field simulations. This approximation is implemented by assuming complete solute mixing outside a purely diffusive zone of constant thickness that surrounds the solid-liquid interface. This simple method enables us to quantitatively match experimental measurements of the planar morphological instability threshold and primary spacings over an order of magnitude in V. Lastly, we explain the observed inversion of ∂Λ/∂V by a combination of slow transient dynamics of microstructural homogenization and the influence of the sample thickness.« less

The relative importance of reproductive assurance and automatic selection as hypotheses for the evolution of self-fertilization

PubMed Central

Busch, Jeremiah W.; Delph, Lynda F.

2012-01-01

Background The field of plant mating-system evolution has long been interested in understanding why selfing evolves from outcrossing. Many possible mechanisms drive this evolutionary trend, but most research has focused upon the transmission advantage of selfing and its ability to provide reproductive assurance when cross-pollination is uncertain. We discuss the shared conceptual framework of these ideas and their empirical support that is emerging from tests of their predictions over the last 25 years. Scope These two hypotheses are derived from the same strategic framework. The transmission advantage hypothesis involves purely gene-level selection, with reproductive assurance involving an added component of individual-level selection. Support for both of these ideas has been garnered from population-genetic tests of their predictions. Studies in natural populations often show that selfing increases seed production, but it is not clear if this benefit is sufficient to favour the evolution of selfing, and the ecological agents limiting outcross pollen are often not identified. Pollen discounting appears to be highly variable and important in systems where selfing involves multiple floral adaptations, yet seed discounting has rarely been investigated. Although reproductive assurance appears likely as a leading factor facilitating the evolution of selfing, studies must account for both seed and pollen discounting to adequately test this hypothesis. Conclusions The transmission advantage and reproductive assurance ideas describe components of gene transmission that favour selfing. Future work should move beyond their dichotomous presentation and focus upon understanding whether selection through pollen, seed or both explains the spread of selfing-rate modifiers in plant populations. PMID:21937484

The relative importance of reproductive assurance and automatic selection as hypotheses for the evolution of self-fertilization.

PubMed

Busch, Jeremiah W; Delph, Lynda F

2012-02-01

The field of plant mating-system evolution has long been interested in understanding why selfing evolves from outcrossing. Many possible mechanisms drive this evolutionary trend, but most research has focused upon the transmission advantage of selfing and its ability to provide reproductive assurance when cross-pollination is uncertain. We discuss the shared conceptual framework of these ideas and their empirical support that is emerging from tests of their predictions over the last 25 years. These two hypotheses are derived from the same strategic framework. The transmission advantage hypothesis involves purely gene-level selection, with reproductive assurance involving an added component of individual-level selection. Support for both of these ideas has been garnered from population-genetic tests of their predictions. Studies in natural populations often show that selfing increases seed production, but it is not clear if this benefit is sufficient to favour the evolution of selfing, and the ecological agents limiting outcross pollen are often not identified. Pollen discounting appears to be highly variable and important in systems where selfing involves multiple floral adaptations, yet seed discounting has rarely been investigated. Although reproductive assurance appears likely as a leading factor facilitating the evolution of selfing, studies must account for both seed and pollen discounting to adequately test this hypothesis. The transmission advantage and reproductive assurance ideas describe components of gene transmission that favour selfing. Future work should move beyond their dichotomous presentation and focus upon understanding whether selection through pollen, seed or both explains the spread of selfing-rate modifiers in plant populations.

The [O III] Profiles of Infrared-selected Active Galactic Nuclei: More Powerful Outflows in the Obscured Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DiPompeo, M. A.; Hickox, R. C.; Carroll, C. M.; Runnoe, J. C.; Mullaney, J. R.; Fischer, T. C.

2018-03-01

We explore the kinematics of ionized gas via the [O III] λ5007 emission lines in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) selected on the basis of their mid-infrared (IR) emission, and split into obscured and unobscured populations based on their optical‑IR colors. After correcting for differences in redshift distributions, we provide composite spectra of spectroscopically and photometrically defined obscured/Type 2 and unobscured/Type 1 AGNs from 3500 to 7000 Å. The IR-selected obscured sources contain a mixture of narrow-lined Type 2 AGNs and intermediate sources that have broad Hα emission and significantly narrower Hβ. Using both [O III] luminosities and AGN luminosities derived from optical‑IR spectral energy distribution fitting, we find evidence for enhanced large-scale obscuration in the obscured sources. In matched bins of luminosity we find that the obscured population typically has broader, more blueshifted [O III] emission than in the unobscured sample, suggestive of more powerful AGN-driven outflows. This trend is not seen in spectroscopically classified samples, and is unlikely to be entirely explained by orientation effects. In addition, outflow velocities increase from small to moderate AGN E(B ‑ V) values, before flattening out (as traced by FWHM) and even decreasing (as traced by blueshift). While difficult to fully interpret in a single physical model, due to both the averaging over populations and the spatially averaged spectra, these results agree with previous findings that simple geometric unification models are insufficient for the IR-selected AGN population, and may fit into an evolutionary model for obscured and unobscured AGNs.

Trends Impacting One Public School Program for Students Who Are Deaf or Hard-of-Hearing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Kevin J.

2014-01-01

This article reflects on the author's experience supervising a public school program for students who are deaf or hard-of-hearing, specifically addressing national, regional, and local trends affecting it. These trends included teacher efficacy, changes in educational service delivery, advances in technology, the selection of the listening and…

The collection of national trend data on alcohol related crashes for comparison with alcohol safety action projects results. Volume 1, National trend sample

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-07-01

To study the national trend in alcohol-related crashes, a sample of 14 states was selected, and monthly accident data were collected for each state for the years 1965 through 1975. Surrogate measures for alcohol-related crashes were chosen on the bas...

Trends in public attitudes towards the use of wildland fire

Treesearch

Katie Knotek

2006-01-01

This paper summarizes a select set of research studies conducted over the past 40 years, drawing conclusions on trends in public attitudes about the use of wildland fire in federally-designated Wilderness. The research includes trend studies conducted with visitors to Wilderness areas in Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho and Montana. Each research study used a...

Trends in surface-water quality at selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations, in Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syed, Atiq U.; Fogarty, Lisa R.

2005-01-01

To demonstrate the value of long-term, water-quality monitoring, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), initiated a study to evaluate potential trends in water-quality constituents for selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations in Michigan. The goal of this study is to assist the MDEQ in evaluating the effectiveness of water-pollution control efforts and the identification of water-quality concerns. The study included a total of nine NASQAN stations in Michigan. Approximately 28 constituents were analyzed for trend tests. Station selection was based on data availability, land-use characteristics, and station priority for the MDEQ Water Chemistry Monitoring Project. Trend analyses were completed using the uncensored Seasonal Kendall Test in the computer program Estimate Trend (ESTREND), a software program for the detection of trends in water-quality data. The parameters chosen for the trend test had (1) at least a 5-year period of record (2) about 5 percent of the observations censored at a single reporting limit, and (3) 40 percent of the values within the beginning one-fifth and ending one-fifth of the selected period. In this study, a negative trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent, which generally means an improvement in water quality; whereas a positive trend means an increase in concentration and possible degradation of water quality. The results of the study show an overall improvement in water quality at the Clinton River at Mount Clemens, Manistee River at Manistee, and Pigeon River near Caseville. The detected trend for these stations show decreases in concentrations of various constituents such as nitrogen compounds, conductance, sulfate, fecal coliform bacteria, and fecal streptococci bacteria. The negative trend may indicate an overall improvement in agricultural practices, municipal and industrial wastewater-treatment processes, and effective regulations. Phosphorus data for most of the study stations could not be analyzed because of the data limitations for trend tests. The only station with a significant negative trend in total phosphorus concentration is the Clinton River at Mount Clemens. However, scatter-plot analyses of phosphorus data indicate decreasing concentrations with time for most of the study stations. Positive trends in concentration of nitrogen compounds were detected at the Kalamazoo River near Saugatuck and Muskegon River near Bridgeton. Positive trends in both fecal coliform and total fecal coliform were detected at the Tahquamenon River near Paradise. Various different point and nonpoint sources could produce such positive trends, but most commonly the increase in concentrations of nitrogen compounds and fecal coliform bacteria are associated with agricultural practices and sewage-plant discharges. The constituent with the most numerous and geographically widespread significant trend is pH. The pH levels increased at six out of nine stations on all the major rivers in Michigan, with no negative trend at any station. The cause of pH increase is difficult to determine, as it could be related to a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural processes occurring simultaneously in the environment. Trends in concentration of major ions, such as calcium, sodium, magnesium, sulfate, fluoride, chloride, and potassium, were detected at eight out of nine stations. A negative trend was detected only in sulfate and fluoride concentrations; a positive trend was detected only in calcium concentration. The major ions with the most widespread significant trends are sodium and chloride; three positive and two negative trends were detected for sodium, and three negative and two positive trends were detected for chloride. The negative trends in chloride concentrations outnumbered the positive trends. This result indicates a slight improvement in surface-water quality because chloride as a point source in natural water comes from deicing salt, sewage effluents, industrial wastes, and oil fields. For other major ions, such as magnesium and potassium, both positive and negative trends were detected. These changes in trends indicate changes in surface-water quality caused by a variety of point and non-point sources throughout Michigan, as well as natural changes in the environment.

Temporal trends in nitrate and selected pesticides in mid-atlantic ground water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Debrewer, L.M.; Ator, S.W.; Denver, J.M.

2008-01-01

Evaluating long-term temporal trends in regional ground-water quality is complicated by variable hydrogeologic conditions and typically slow flow, and such trends have rarely been directly measured. Ground-water samples were collected over near-decadal and annual intervals from unconfined aquifers in agricultural areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, including fractured carbonate rocks in the Great Valley, Potomac River Basin, and unconsolidated sediments on the Delmarva Peninsula. Concentrations of nitrate and selected pesticides and degradates were compared among sampling events and to apparent recharge dates. Observed temporal trends are related to changes in land use and chemical applications, and to hydrogeology and climate. Insignificant differences in nitrate concentrations in the Great Valley between 1993 and 2002 are consistent with relatively steady fertilizer application during respective recharge periods and are likely related to drought conditions in the later sampling period. Detecting trends in Great Valley ground water is complicated by long open boreholes characteristic of wells sampled in this setting which facilitate significant ground-water mixing. Decreasing atrazine and prometon concentrations, however, reflect reported changes in usage. On the Delmarva Peninsula between 1988 and 2001, median nitrate concentrations increased 2 mg per liter in aerobic ground water, reflecting increasing fertilizer applications. Correlations between selected pesticide compounds and apparent recharge date are similarly related to changing land use and chemical application. Observed trends in the two settings demonstrate the importance of considering hydrogeology and recharge date along with, changing land and chemical uses when interpreting trends in regional ground-water quality. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Maternal exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study: time trends of selected exposures

PubMed Central

Dawson, April L.; Razzaghi, Hilda; Arth, Annelise; Canfield, Mark A.; Parker, Samantha E.; Reefhuis, Jennita

2015-01-01

Background Our objective was to describe time trends in selected pregnancy exposures in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS). Methods We analyzed data from the NBDPS, a multi-site case-control study of major birth defects, for mothers of live-born infants without birth defects (controls), with an expected date of delivery (EDD) from 1998 –2011. Mothers from the 10 participating centers across the United States were interviewed by phone between six weeks and two years after the EDD. We focused on maternal race/ethnicity and five maternal risk factors: obesity, use of folic acid-containing multivitamins, opioid analgesics, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), and loratadine because of their prevalence of use and some reports of associations with major birth defects. Prevalence time trends were examined using the Kendall’s τβ test statistic. Results The exposure trend analysis included 11,724 control mothers with EDDs from 1998–2011. We observed a significant increase in obesity prevalence among control mothers, as well as use of SSRIs and loratadine. We also observed an increase in periconceptional use of folic acid-containing multivitamins. Some of the time trends varied by race/ethnicity. No remarkable trend in the overall use of opioid analgesics was observed. The racial/ethnic distribution of mothers changed slightly during the study period. Conclusions Long-term, population-based case-control studies continue to be an effective way to assess exposure-birth defects associations and provide guidance to health care providers. However, investigators examining rare outcomes covering many years of data collection need to be cognizant of time trends in exposures. PMID:25884728

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena

2010-01-01

This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW - 30 E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as we] l as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino anomaly index four months previously. The El Nino index is defined as the SST anomaly averaged over the area 15S to 15N and 160W eastward to 30E. If one excludes the area 5degN - 20degS, 150degW - 30degE from the statistics, the negative area mean tropical OLR trends, as well as OLR trends over the rest of the globe, are substantially

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Molnar, G. I.; Iredell, L. F.; Sounder Research Team

2010-12-01

Joel Susskind, Gyula Molnar, and Lena Iredell NASA GSFC Sounder Research Team Abstract This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 - February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Niña in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5°N - 20°S latitude extending eastward from 150°W - 30°E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Niño, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as well as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino anomaly index four months previously. The El Nino index is defined as the SST anomaly averaged over the area 15S to 15N and 160W eastward to 30E. If one excludes the area 5°N - 20°S, 150°W - 30°E from the statistics, the negative area mean tropical OLR trends, as well as OLR trends over the rest of the globe, are substantially reduced over the time period under study.

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000-2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century

PubMed Central

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-01

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000–2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend. PMID:28120949

Federal Regulatory Trends and the Emerging Profiles of Air Transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, C. D.

1972-01-01

The economic aspects of Federal regulation of airlines are discussed. The problems involved in obtaining capital resources for airline operations and expansion are analyzed. The functions of various agencies and their impact on the economic status of the airlines are explained.

Mobility of large rock avalanches: evidence from Valles Marineris, Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEwen, A.S.

1989-01-01

Measurements of H/L (height of drop/length of runout) vs. volume for landslides in Valles Marineris on Mars show a trend of decreasing H/L with increasing volume. This trend, which is linear on a log-log plot, is parallel to but lies above the trend for terrestrial dry rock avalanches. This result and estimates of 104 to 105 Pa yield strength suggest that the landslides were not water saturated, as suggested by previous workers. The offset between the H/L vs. volume trends shows that a typical Martian avalanche must be nearly two orders of magnitude more voluminous than a typical terrestrial avalance in order to achieve the same mobility. This offset might be explained by the effects of gravity on flows with high yield strengths. These results should prove useful to future efforts to resolve the controversy over the mechanics of long-runout avalanches. -Author

[Increasing number of child abuse cases in Sweden--in accordance with reality?].

PubMed

Nilsson, C; Horgby, K; Borres, M P

2001-05-09

The number of police reports on child assault shows an increasing trend during the last two decades in Sweden. The purpose of this article is to present possible explanations. Increased awareness of child abuse, legislative reforms, changes in attitudes toward corporal punishment and violence in general, and changed routines within schools can explain the increasing trend in police reporting. An actual increase in the rate of child abuse is possible but less likely. Reports of increasingly violent behavior among young people must be taken seriously.

Educational homogamy and gender-specific earnings: Sweden, 1990-2009.

PubMed

Dribe, Martin; Nystedt, Paul

2013-08-01

Several studies have shown strong educational homogamy in most Western societies, although the trends over time differ across countries. In this article, we study the connection between educational assortative mating and gender-specific earnings in a sample containing the entire Swedish population born 1960-1974; we follow this sample from 1990 to 2009. Our empirical strategy exploits a longitudinal design, using distributed fixed-effects models capturing the impact of partner education on postmarital earnings, relating it to the income development before union formation. We find that being partnered with someone with more education (hypergamy) is associated with higher earnings, while partnering someone with less education (hypogamy) is associated with lower earnings. However, most of these differences in earnings emerge prior to the time of marriage, implying that the effect is explained by marital selection processes rather than by partner education affecting earnings. The exception is hypogamy among the highly educated, for which there are strong indications that in comparison with homogamy and hypergamy, earnings grow slower after union formation.

[Possibilities of genetic diagnostics of intestine tumour and inflammatory diseases in Slovakia].

PubMed

Desatová, B; Bátovský, M; Mľkva, I

2013-11-01

In recent years, gastroenterologists focused their interest on finding the genetic background of inflammatory bowel disease and colon cancer. NOD2/ CARD15 gene is still the most investigated gene of all known genes and its mutations can explain approximately 20% of genetic predisposition to Crohns disease. From later identified genes that play an important role in the etiology of Crohns disease, the IL23R and ATG16L1 genes have a perspective place. In the case of hereditary colorectal cancer, we can select by the help of genetic diagnostics, the group of patients with high risk of colon cancer, which requires more intensive monitoring. The aim is to find out the colon cancer in the early, treatable stage. In practical terms, genetic diagnostics of inflammatory bowel disease and colon cancer has no screening and only poor prognostic importance. It is pleasant, that the Slovak genetic workplaces are interested in this issue and in accordance with modern trends they try to expand its diapason.

Energy and time determine scaling in biological and computer designs

PubMed Central

Bezerra, George; Edwards, Benjamin; Brown, James; Forrest, Stephanie

2016-01-01

Metabolic rate in animals and power consumption in computers are analogous quantities that scale similarly with size. We analyse vascular systems of mammals and on-chip networks of microprocessors, where natural selection and human engineering, respectively, have produced systems that minimize both energy dissipation and delivery times. Using a simple network model that simultaneously minimizes energy and time, our analysis explains empirically observed trends in the scaling of metabolic rate in mammals and power consumption and performance in microprocessors across several orders of magnitude in size. Just as the evolutionary transitions from unicellular to multicellular animals in biology are associated with shifts in metabolic scaling, our model suggests that the scaling of power and performance will change as computer designs transition to decentralized multi-core and distributed cyber-physical systems. More generally, a single energy–time minimization principle may govern the design of many complex systems that process energy, materials and information. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The major synthetic evolutionary transitions’. PMID:27431524

Synthetic biology: a challenge to mechanical explanations in biology?

PubMed

Morange, Michel

2012-01-01

In their plans to modify organisms, synthetic biologists have contrasted engineering and tinkering. By drawing this contrast between their endeavors and what has happened during the evolution of organisms by natural selection, they underline the novelty of their projects and justify their ambitions. Synthetic biologists are at odds with a long tradition that has considered organisms as "perfect machines." This tradition had already been questioned by Stephen Jay Gould in the 1970s and received a major blow with the comparison made by François Jacob between organisms and the results of "bricolage" (tinkering). These contrasts between engineering and tinkering, synthetic biology and evolution, have no raison d'être. Machines built by humans are increasingly inspired by observations made on organisms. This is not a simple reversal of the previous trend-the mechanical conception of organisms-in which the characteristics of the latter were explained by comparison with human-built machines. Relations between organisms and machines have always been complex and ambiguous.

Energy and time determine scaling in biological and computer designs.

PubMed

Moses, Melanie; Bezerra, George; Edwards, Benjamin; Brown, James; Forrest, Stephanie

2016-08-19

Metabolic rate in animals and power consumption in computers are analogous quantities that scale similarly with size. We analyse vascular systems of mammals and on-chip networks of microprocessors, where natural selection and human engineering, respectively, have produced systems that minimize both energy dissipation and delivery times. Using a simple network model that simultaneously minimizes energy and time, our analysis explains empirically observed trends in the scaling of metabolic rate in mammals and power consumption and performance in microprocessors across several orders of magnitude in size. Just as the evolutionary transitions from unicellular to multicellular animals in biology are associated with shifts in metabolic scaling, our model suggests that the scaling of power and performance will change as computer designs transition to decentralized multi-core and distributed cyber-physical systems. More generally, a single energy-time minimization principle may govern the design of many complex systems that process energy, materials and information.This article is part of the themed issue 'The major synthetic evolutionary transitions'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Relation Between the Overall Impression of the Sound Environment and Types and Loudness of Environmental Sounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KAWAI, K.; YANO, T.

2002-02-01

This paper reports an experimental study determining the effects of the type and loudness of individual sounds on the overall impression of the sound environment. Field and laboratory experiments were carried out. In each experiment, subjects evaluated the sound environment presented, which consisted of combinations of three individual sounds of road traffic, singing crickets and the murmuring of a river, with five bipolar adjective scales such as Good-Bad, Active-Calm and Natural-Artificial. Overall loudness had the strongest effect on most types of evaluations; relative SPL has a greater effect than overall loudness on a particular evaluation of the natural-artificial scale. The test sounds in the field experiment were generally evaluated as more good and more natural than those in the laboratory. The results of comparisons between laboratory and field sounds indicate a difference in the trend between them. This difference may be explained by the term of selective listening but that needs further investigation.

Links between physical fitness and cardiovascular reactivity and recovery to psychological stressors: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Forcier, Kathleen; Stroud, Laura R; Papandonatos, George D; Hitsman, Brian; Reiches, Meredith; Krishnamoorthy, Jenelle; Niaura, Raymond

2006-11-01

A meta-analysis of published studies with adult human participants was conducted to evaluate whether physical fitness attenuates cardiovascular reactivity and improves recovery from acute psychological stressors. Thirty-three studies met selection criteria; 18 were included in recovery analyses. Effect sizes and moderator influences were calculated by using meta-analysis software. A fixed effects model was fit initially; however, between-studies heterogeneity could not be explained even after inclusion of moderators. Therefore, to account for residual heterogeneity, a random effects model was estimated. Under this model, fit individuals showed significantly attenuated heart rate and systolic blood pressure reactivity and a trend toward attenuated diastolic blood pressure reactivity. Fit individuals also showed faster heart rate recovery, but there were no significant differences in systolic blood pressure or diastolic blood pressure recovery. No significant moderators emerged. Results have important implications for elucidating mechanisms underlying effects of fitness on cardiovascular disease and suggest that fitness may be an important confound in studies of stress reactivity. Copyright 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

Shifting balances in U.S. metropolitan and nonmetropolitan area growth.

PubMed

Garnick, D H

1984-12-01

"This paper assesses some of the recent attempts to explain the perceived growth reversal between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States during the 1970s. The paper argues that the reversal in population trends was not a one-time, radical shift in settlement trends, but rather the result of more continuous underlying industrial trends. Indeed, since 1979, population growth has again become faster in metropolitan than nonmetropolitan areas." The paper includes three sections. Regional and area population and industrial earnings growth patterns are first summarized for the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. Theories of polarization and polar reversal are then evaluated and found to be inadequate. Finally, a reconstruction of the neoclassical model is proposed. excerpt

Tracking Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Shifts in Data with TREND.

PubMed

Xu, Jia; Van Doren, Steven R

2017-01-24

Principal component analysis (PCA) discovers patterns in multivariate data that include spectra, microscopy, and other biophysical measurements. Direct application of PCA to crowded spectra, images, and movies (without selecting peaks or features) was shown recently to identify their equilibrium or temporal changes. To enable the community to utilize these capabilities with a wide range of measurements, we have developed multiplatform software named TREND to Track Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium population shifts among two-dimensional Data frames. TREND can also carry this out by independent component analysis. We highlight a few examples of finding concurrent processes. TREND extracts dual phases of binding to two sites directly from the NMR spectra of the titrations. In a cardiac movie from magnetic resonance imaging, TREND resolves principal components (PCs) representing breathing and the cardiac cycle. TREND can also reconstruct the series of measurements from selected PCs, as illustrated for a biphasic, NMR-detected titration and the cardiac MRI movie. Fidelity of reconstruction of series of NMR spectra or images requires more PCs than needed to plot the largest population shifts. TREND reads spectra from many spectroscopies in the most common formats (JCAMP-DX and NMR) and multiple movie formats. The TREND package thus provides convenient tools to resolve the processes recorded by diverse biophysical methods. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barkhordarian, Armineh

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less

Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

DOE PAGES

Barkhordarian, Armineh

2012-01-01

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less

Climate-Driven Crop Yield and Yield Variability and Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. Great Plains Agricultural Production.

PubMed

Kukal, Meetpal S; Irmak, Suat

2018-02-22

Climate variability and trends affect global crop yields and are characterized as highly dependent on location, crop type, and irrigation. U.S. Great Plains, due to its significance in national food production, evident climate variability, and extensive irrigation is an ideal region of investigation for climate impacts on food production. This paper evaluates climate impacts on maize, sorghum, and soybean yields and effect of irrigation for individual counties in this region by employing extensive crop yield and climate datasets from 1968-2013. Variability in crop yields was a quarter of the regional average yields, with a quarter of this variability explained by climate variability, and temperature and precipitation explained these in singularity or combination at different locations. Observed temperature trend was beneficial for maize yields, but detrimental for sorghum and soybean yields, whereas observed precipitation trend was beneficial for all three crops. Irrigated yields demonstrated increased robustness and an effective mitigation strategy against climate impacts than their non-irrigated counterparts by a considerable fraction. The information, data, and maps provided can serve as an assessment guide for planners, managers, and policy- and decision makers to prioritize agricultural resilience efforts and resource allocation or re-allocation in the regions that exhibit risk from climate variability.

Recent global methane trends: an investigation using hierarchical Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigby, M. L.; Stavert, A.; Ganesan, A.; Lunt, M. F.

2014-12-01

Following a decade with little growth, methane concentrations began to increase across the globe in 2007, and have continued to rise ever since. The reasons for this renewed growth are currently the subject of much debate. Here, we discuss the recent observed trends, and highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses in current "inverse" methods for quantifying fluxes using observations. In particular, we focus on the outstanding problems of accurately quantifying uncertainties in inverse frameworks. We examine to what extent the recent methane changes can be explained by the current generation of flux models and inventories. We examine the major modes of variability in wetland models along with the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). Using the Model for Ozone and Related Tracers (MOZART), we determine whether the spatial and temporal atmospheric trends predicted using these emissions can be brought into consistency with in situ atmospheric observations. We use a novel hierarchical Bayesian methodology in which scaling factors applied to the principal components of the flux fields are estimated simultaneously with the uncertainties associated with the a priori fluxes and with model representations of the observations. Using this method, we examine the predictive power of methane flux models for explaining recent fluctuations.

Chemical trends in ocean islands explained by plume–slab interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannberg, Juliane; Gassmöller, Rene

2018-04-01

Earth's surface shows many features, of which the genesis can be understood only through their connection with processes in Earth's deep interior. Recent studies indicate that spatial geochemical patterns at oceanic islands correspond to structures in the lowermost mantle inferred from seismic tomographic models. This suggests that hot, buoyant upwellings can carry chemical heterogeneities from the deep lower mantle toward the surface, providing a window to the composition of the lowermost mantle. The exact nature of this link between surface and deep Earth remains debated and poorly understood. Using computational models, we show that subducted slabs interacting with dense thermochemical piles can trigger the ascent of hot plumes that inherit chemical gradients present in the lowermost mantle. We identify two key factors controlling this process: (i) If slabs induce strong lower-mantle flow toward the edges of these piles where plumes rise, the pile-facing side of the plume preferentially samples material originating from the pile, and bilaterally asymmetric chemical zoning develops. (ii) The composition of the melt produced reflects this bilateral zoning if the overlying plate moves roughly perpendicular to the chemical gradient in the plume conduit. Our results explain some of the observed geochemical trends of oceanic islands and provide insights into how these trends may originate.

Variations between Dust and Gas in the Diffuse Interstellar Medium. III. Changes in Dust Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reach, William T.; Bernard, Jean-Philippe; Jarrett, Thomas H.; Heiles, Carl

2017-12-01

We study infrared emission of 17 isolated, diffuse clouds with masses of order {10}2 {M}ȯ to test the hypothesis that grain property variations cause the apparently low gas-to-dust ratios that have been measured in those clouds. Maps of the clouds were constructed from Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) data and directly compared with the maps of dust optical depth from Planck. The mid-infrared emission per unit dust optical depth has a significant trend toward lower values at higher optical depths. The trend can be quantitatively explained by the extinction of starlight within the clouds. The relative amounts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and very small grains traced by WISE, compared with large grains tracked by Planck, are consistent with being constant. The temperature of the large grains significantly decreases for clouds with larger dust optical depth; this trend is partially due to dust property variations, but is primarily due to extinction of starlight. We updated the prediction for molecular hydrogen column density, taking into account variations in dust properties, and find it can explain the observed dust optical depth per unit gas column density. Thus, the low gas-to-dust ratios in the clouds are most likely due to “dark gas” that is molecular hydrogen.

Brazilian and Mexican experiences in the study of incipient domestication.

PubMed

Lins Neto, Ernani Machado de Freitas; Peroni, Nivaldo; Casas, Alejandro; Parra, Fabiola; Aguirre, Xitlali; Guillén, Susana; Albuquerque, Ulysses Paulino

2014-04-02

Studies of domestication enables a better understanding of human cultures, landscape changes according to peoples' purposes, and evolutionary consequences of human actions on biodiversity. This review aimed at discussing concepts, hypotheses, and current trends in studies of domestication of plants, using examples of cases studied in regions of Mesoamerica and Brazil. We analyzed trends of ethnobiological studies contributing to document processes of domestication and to establish criteria for biodiversity conservation based on traditional ecological knowledge. Based on reviewing our own and other authors' studies we analyzed management patterns and evolutionary trends associated to domestication occurring at plant populations and landscape levels. Particularly, we systematized information documenting: ethnobotanical aspects about plant management and artificial selection mechanisms, morphological consequences of plant management, population genetics of wild and managed plant populations, trends of change in reproduction systems of plants associated to management, and other ecological and physiological aspects influenced by management and domestication. Based on the analysis of study cases of 20 native species of herbs, shrubs and trees we identified similar criteria of artificial selection in different cultural contexts of Mexico and Brazil. Similar evolutionary trends were also identified in morphology (selection in favor of gigantism of useful and correlated parts); organoleptic characteristics such as taste, toxicity, color, texture; reproductive biology, mainly breeding system, phenological changes, and population genetics aspects, maintenance or increasing of genetic diversity in managed populations, high gene flow with wild relatives and low structure maintained by artificial selection. Our review is a first attempt to unify research methods for analyzing a high diversity of processes. Further research should emphasize deeper analyses of contrasting and diverse cultural and ecological contexts for a better understanding of evolution under incipient processes of domestication. Higher research effort is particularly required in Brazil, where studies on this topic are scarcer than in Mexico but where diversity of human cultures managing their also high plant resources diversity offer high potential for documenting the diversity of mechanisms of artificial selection and evolutionary trends. Comparisons and evaluations of incipient domestication in the regions studied as well as the Andean area would significantly contribute to understanding origins and diffusion of the experience of managing and domesticating plants.

Insight into global trends in aerosol composition from 2005 to 2015 inferred from the OMI Ultraviolet Aerosol Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammer, Melanie S.; Martin, Randall V.; Li, Chi; Torres, Omar; Manning, Max; Boys, Brian L.

2018-06-01

Observations of aerosol scattering and absorption offer valuable information about aerosol composition. We apply a simulation of the Ultraviolet Aerosol Index (UVAI), a method of detecting aerosol absorption from satellite observations, to interpret UVAI values observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) from 2005 to 2015 to understand global trends in aerosol composition. We conduct our simulation using the vector radiative transfer model VLIDORT with aerosol fields from the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. We examine the 2005-2015 trends in individual aerosol species from GEOS-Chem and apply these trends to the UVAI simulation to calculate the change in simulated UVAI due to the trends in individual aerosol species. We find that global trends in the UVAI are largely explained by trends in absorption by mineral dust, absorption by brown carbon, and scattering by secondary inorganic aerosol. Trends in absorption by mineral dust dominate the simulated UVAI trends over North Africa, the Middle East, East Asia, and Australia. The UVAI simulation resolves observed negative UVAI trends well over Australia, but underestimates positive UVAI trends over North Africa and Central Asia near the Aral Sea and underestimates negative UVAI trends over East Asia. We find evidence of an increasing dust source from the desiccating Aral Sea that may not be well represented by the current generation of models. Trends in absorption by brown carbon dominate the simulated UVAI trends over biomass burning regions. The UVAI simulation reproduces observed negative trends over central South America and West Africa, but underestimates observed UVAI trends over boreal forests. Trends in scattering by secondary inorganic aerosol dominate the simulated UVAI trends over the eastern United States and eastern India. The UVAI simulation slightly overestimates the observed positive UVAI trends over the eastern United States and underestimates the observed negative UVAI trends over India. Quantitative simulation of the OMI UVAI offers new insight into global trends in aerosol composition.

Does Learning or Instinct Shape Habitat Selection?

PubMed Central

Nielsen, Scott E.; Shafer, Aaron B. A.; Boyce, Mark S.; Stenhouse, Gordon B.

2013-01-01

Habitat selection is an important behavioural process widely studied for its population-level effects. Models of habitat selection are, however, often fit without a mechanistic consideration. Here, we investigated whether patterns in habitat selection result from instinct or learning for a population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in Alberta, Canada. We found that habitat selection and relatedness were positively correlated in female bears during the fall season, with a trend in the spring, but not during any season for males. This suggests that habitat selection is a learned behaviour because males do not participate in parental care: a genetically predetermined behaviour (instinct) would have resulted in habitat selection and relatedness correlations for both sexes. Geographic distance and home range overlap among animals did not alter correlations indicating that dispersal and spatial autocorrelation had little effect on the observed trends. These results suggest that habitat selection in grizzly bears are partly learned from their mothers, which could have implications for the translocation of wildlife to novel environments. PMID:23341983

Does learning or instinct shape habitat selection?

PubMed

Nielsen, Scott E; Shafer, Aaron B A; Boyce, Mark S; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2013-01-01

Habitat selection is an important behavioural process widely studied for its population-level effects. Models of habitat selection are, however, often fit without a mechanistic consideration. Here, we investigated whether patterns in habitat selection result from instinct or learning for a population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in Alberta, Canada. We found that habitat selection and relatedness were positively correlated in female bears during the fall season, with a trend in the spring, but not during any season for males. This suggests that habitat selection is a learned behaviour because males do not participate in parental care: a genetically predetermined behaviour (instinct) would have resulted in habitat selection and relatedness correlations for both sexes. Geographic distance and home range overlap among animals did not alter correlations indicating that dispersal and spatial autocorrelation had little effect on the observed trends. These results suggest that habitat selection in grizzly bears are partly learned from their mothers, which could have implications for the translocation of wildlife to novel environments.

Dietary cost associated with adherence to the Mediterranean diet, and its variation by socio-economic factors in the UK Fenland study

PubMed Central

Tong, Tammy Y.N.; Imamura, Fumiaki; Monsivais, Pablo; Brage, Søren; Griffin, Simon J.; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Forouhi, Nita G.

2018-01-01

High cost of healthy foods could be a barrier to healthy eating. We aimed to examine the association between dietary cost and adherence to the Mediterranean diet in a non-Mediterranean country. We evaluated cross-sectional data from 12,417 adults in the UK Fenland Study. Responses to 130-item food frequency questionnaires were used to calculate a Mediterranean diet score (MDS). Dietary cost was estimated by matching food consumption data with retail prices of five major supermarkets. Using multivariable-adjusted linear regression, we examined the association of MDS and individual foods with dietary cost in absolute and relative scales. Subsequently, we assessed how much the association was explained by education, income, marital status, and occupation, by conducting mediation analysis and testing interaction by these variables. High compared to low MDS (top to bottom third) was associated with marginally higher cost by 5.4% (95% CI 4.4. 6.4%) or £0.20/day (£0.16, 0.25). Participants with high adherence had higher cost associated with the healthier components (e.g. vegetables, fruits, and fish), and lower cost associated with the unhealthy components (e.g. red meat, processed meat and sweets) (p<0.001 each for trend). 20.7% (14.3, 27.0%) of the MDS-cost association was explained by the selected socio-economic factors, and the MDS-cost association was of greater magnitude in lower socio-economic groups (p interaction<0.005). Overall, greater adherence to the Mediterranean diet was associated with marginally higher dietary cost, partly modified and explained by socio-economic status, but the potential economic barriers of high adherence might be offset by cost saving from reducing unhealthy food consumption. PMID:29553031

Seasonal trends, chemical speciation and source apportionment of fine PM in Tehran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arhami, Mohammad; Hosseini, Vahid; Zare Shahne, Maryam; Bigdeli, Mostafa; Lai, Alexandra; Schauer, James J.

2017-03-01

Frequent air pollution episodes have been reported for Tehran, Iran, mainly because of critically high levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The composition and sources of these particles are poorly known, so this study aims to identify the major components and heavy metals in PM2.5 along with their seasonal trends and associated sources. 24-hour PM2.5 samples were collected at a main residential station every 6 days for a full year from February 2014 to February 2015. The samples were analyzed for ions, organic carbon (including water-soluble and insoluble portions), elemental carbon (EC), and all detectable elements. The dominant mass components, which were determined by means of chemical mass closure, were organic matter (35%), dust (25%), non-sea salt sulfate (11%), EC (9%), ammonium (5%), and nitrate (2%). Organic matter and EC together comprised 44% of fine PM on average (increased to >70% in the colder season), which reflects the significance of anthropogenic urban sources (i.e. vehicles). The contributions of different components varied considerably throughout the year, particularly the dust component that varied from 7% in the cold season to 56% in the hot and dry season. Principal component analyses were applied, resulting in 5 major source factors that explained 85% of the variance in fine PM. Factor 1, representing soil dust, explained 53%; Factor 2 denotes heavy metals mainly found in industrial sources and accounted for 18%; and rest of factors, mainly representing combustion sources, explained 14% of the variation. The levels of major heavy metals were further evaluated, and their trends showed considerable increases during cold seasons. The results of this study provide useful insight to fine PM in Tehran, which could help in identifying their health effects and sources, and also adopting effective control strategies.

Historical trends in U.S. mineral statistics for selected non-ferrous metals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piper, David Z.; Nokleberg, Warren J.

2002-01-01

Production figures for selected nonferrous metals-aluminum (including bauxite and alumina), copper, lead, tin, titanium, and zinc-by the United States, as well as other statistics for these commodities, show strong volatility during 20th century. Major shifts were driven by the Great Depression and the two World Wars, but other major temporal changes are also noted that are not directly related to such global crises. For example, the price of tin exhibited a strong maximum in the 1980's, which is unrelated to world production, but rather to failed efforts of the International Tin Council to control price. In the case of copper, U.S. exports have varied throughout the second half of the century, by more than a factor of 5. Such volatility might be explained in part by global economic conditions, at least throughout recent decades. Supporting the interpretation of the importance of foreign pressure on the domestic commodities market is a close correlation between domestic consumption of antimony and its elevated price in the mid 1980's,possibly pushed up mostly by the world dominance in production of this commodity by China. However, only very superficial explanations can be advanced for such relations before we have examined, in concert, information for a much larger suite of commodities.

Chemical composition of selected Kansas brines as an aid to interpreting change in water chemistry with depth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dingman, R.J.; Angino, E.E.

1969-01-01

Chemical analyses of approximately 1,881 samples of water from selected Kansas brines define the variations of water chemistry with depth and aquifer age. The most concentrated brines are found in the Permian rocks which occupy the intermediate section of the geologic column of this area. Salinity decreases below the Permian until the Ordovician (Arbuckle) horizon is reached and then increases until the Precambrian basement rocks are reached. Chemically, the petroleum brines studied in this small area fit the generally accepted pattern of an increase in calcium, sodium and chloride content with increasing salinity. They do not fit the often-predicted trend of increases in the calcium to chloride ratio, calcium content and salinity with depth and geologic age. The calcium to chloride ratio tends to be asymptotic to about 0.2 with increasing chloride content. Sulfate tends to decrease with increasing calcium content. Bicarbonate content is relatively constant with depth. If many of the hypotheses concerning the chemistry of petroleum brines are valid, then the brines studied are anomolous. An alternative lies in accepting the thesis that exceptions to these hypotheses are rapidly becoming the rule and that indeed we still do not have a valid and general hypothesis to explain the origin and chemistry of petroleum brines. ?? 1969.

The Dynamics of Son Preference, Technology Diffusion, and Fertility Decline Underlying Distorted Sex Ratios at Birth: A Simulation Approach.

PubMed

Kashyap, Ridhi; Villavicencio, Francisco

2016-10-01

We present a micro-founded simulation model that formalizes the "ready, willing, and able" framework, originally used to explain historical fertility decline, to the practice of prenatal sex selection. The model generates sex ratio at birth (SRB) distortions from the bottom up and attempts to quantify plausible levels, trends, and interactions of son preference, technology diffusion, and fertility decline that underpin SRB trajectories at the macro level. Calibrating our model for South Korea, we show how even as the proportion with a preference for sons was declining, SRB distortions emerged due to rapid diffusion of prenatal sex determination technology combined with small but growing propensities to abort at low birth parities. Simulations reveal that relatively low levels of son preference (about 20 % to 30 % wanting one son) can result in skewed SRB levels if technology diffuses early and steadily, and if fertility falls rapidly to encourage sex-selective abortion at low parities. Model sensitivity analysis highlights how the shape of sex ratio trajectories is particularly sensitive to the timing and speed of prenatal sex-determination technology diffusion. The maximum SRB levels reached in a population are influenced by how the readiness to abort rises as a function of the fertility decline.

[Application of land economic ecological niche in landscape pattern analysis at county level: A case study of Jinghe County in Xinjiang, China].

PubMed

Yu, Hai-yang; Zhang, Fei; Wang, Juan; Zhou, Mei

2015-12-01

The theory of land economic ecological niche was used to analyze the regional landscape pattern in this article, with an aim to provide a new method for the characterization and representation of landscape pattern. The Jinghe County region, which is ecologically fragile, was selected as an example for the study, and the Landsat images of 1990, 1998, 2011 and 2013 were selected as remote sensing data. The land economic ecological niche of land use types calculated by ecostate-ecorole theory, combined with landscape ecology theory, was discussed in application of land economic ecological niche in county landscape pattern analysis. The results showed that, during the study period, the correlations between land economic ecological niche of farmland, construction land, and grassland with the parameters, including landscape patch number (NP), aggregated index (AI), fragmented index (FN) and fractal dimension (FD), were significant. Regional landscape was driven by the changes of land economic ecological niche, and the trend of economic development could be represented by land economic ecological niche change in Jinghe County. Land economic ecological niche was closely related with the land use types which could yield direct economic benefits, which could well explain the landscape pattern characteristics in Jinghe County when combined with the landscape indices.

Habitat segregation of mosquito arbovirus vectors in south Florida.

PubMed

Rey, Jorge R; Nishimura, Naoya; Wagner, Billi; Braks, Marieta A H; O'Connell, Sheila M; Lounibos, L Philip

2006-11-01

Oviposition traps set in rural to urban environments in three south Florida counties were colonized predominantly by Culex quinquefasciatus Say (35.1%), Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (34.5%), Aedes aegypti (L.) (23.8%), and Culex nigripalpus Theobald (6.6%) during 1 yr of monthly sampling. Significant differences were detected among counties for abundances of Cx. quinquefasciatus and for percentage composition of that species and Ae. albopictus. Aerial images of habitats around each collection site were digitized, and coverages by each of 16 habitat variables were recorded. Abundances ofAe. aegypti were positively related to habitat variables associated with urbanization and negatively correlated to those reflecting rural characteristics. Multiple regression models of habitat selection explained similar proportions of variances in abundance of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, but signs of significant variables were opposite for these two species. No consistent trends of habitat associations were observed among counties for the two Culex spp. Co-occurrences of the four species in individual traps depended on container type (tub versus cup), and, for Aedes spp. with Culex spp., county. The results underscore the importance of scale in evaluating habitat selection and the utility of quantifiable habitat characteristics of intermediate scale to identify site characteristics favored by the arboviral vectors Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus.

Preliminary analysis for trends in selected water-quality characteristics, Powder River, Montana and Wyoming, water years 1952-85

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cary, L.E.

1989-01-01

Selected water-quality data from two streamflow-gaging stations on the Powder River, Montana and Wyoming, were statistically analyzed for trends using the seasonal Kendall test. Data for water years 1952-63 and 1975-85 from the Powder River near Locate, Montana, and water years 1967-68 and 1976-85 from the Powder River at Sussex, Wyoming, were analyzed. Data for the earlier period near Locate were discharge-weighted monthly mean values, whereas data for the late period near Locate and at Sussex were from periodic samples. For data from water years 1952-63 near Locate, increasing trends were detected in sodium and sodium-adsorption ratio; no trends were detected in specific conductance, hardness, non-carbonate hardness, alkalinity, dissolved solids, or sulfate. For data from water years 1975-85 near Locate, increasing trends were detected in specific conductance, sodium, sodium-adsorption ratio, and chloride; no trends were detected in hardness, noncarbonate hardness, alkalinity, dissolved solids, calcium, magnesium, potassium, or sulfate. At Sussex (water years 1967-68 and 1976-85), increasing trends were detected in sodium, sodium-adsorption ratio, and chloride, and a decreasing trend was detected in sulfate. No trends were detected in specific conductance, alkalinity, or dissolved solids. When the 1967-68 data were deleted and the analysis repeated for the 1976-85 data, only sodium-adsorption ratio displayed a significant (increasing) trend. Because the study was exploratory, causes and effects were not considered. The results might have been affected by sample size, number of seasons, heterogeneity, significance level, serial correlation, and data adjustment for changes in discharge. (USGS)

Temporal trends in water-quality constituent concentrations and annual loads of chemical constituents in Michigan watersheds, 1998–2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, Christopher J.; Fogarty, Lisa R.; Duris, Joseph W.

2018-02-21

In 1998, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey began the Water Chemistry Monitoring Program for select streams in the State of Michigan. Objectives of this program were to provide assistance with (1) statewide water-quality assessments, (2) the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permitting process, and (3) water-resource management decisions. As part of this program, water-quality data collected from 1998 to 2013 were analyzed to identify potential trends for select constituents that were sampled. Sixteen water-quality constituents were analyzed at 32 stations throughout Michigan. Trend analysis on the various water-quality data was done using either the uncensored Seasonal Kendall test or through Tobit regression. In total, 79 trends were detected in the constituents analyzed for 32 river stations sampled for the study period—53 downward trends and 26 upward trends were detected. The most prevalent trend detected throughout the State was for ammonia, with 11 downward trends and 1 upward trend estimated.In addition to trends, constituent loads were estimated for 31 stations from 2002 to 2013 for stations that were sampled 12 times per year. Loads were computed using the Autobeale load computation program, which used the Beale ratio estimator approach to estimate an annual load. Constituent loads were the largest in large watershed streams with the highest annual flows such as the Saginaw and Grand Rivers. Likewise, constituent loads were the smallest in smaller tributaries that were sampled as part of this program such as the Boardman and Thunder Bay Rivers.

[Significance of journal articles within the scientific literature of various disciplines: trends over the past two decades].

PubMed

Schubert, András; Soós, Sándor

2015-06-14

Trends of preferred publication channels in selected categories of Sciences, Social Sciences and Arts & Humanities were studied by determining the percentage share of references in reviews to serials (journals) in all references. It was found that in the period 1995-2014, the fraction of articles published in journals was increasing in all selected areas of science and scholarship. The most dynamical increase was found in Social Sciences.

Trends in selected streamflow statistics at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico, 1922-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

Trends in selected streamflow statistics during 1922-2009 were evaluated at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations considered indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, evaluated streamflow data from streamflow-gaging stations with more than 50 years of record that were active as of 2009. The outflows into Arkansas and Louisiana were represented by 3 streamflow-gaging stations, and outflows into the Gulf of Mexico, including Galveston Bay, were represented by 16 streamflow-gaging stations. Monotonic trend analyses were done using the following three streamflow statistics generated from daily mean values of streamflow: (1) annual mean daily discharge, (2) annual maximum daily discharge, and (3) annual minimum daily discharge. The trend analyses were based on the nonparametric Kendall's Tau test, which is useful for the detection of monotonic upward or downward trends with time. A total of 69 trend analyses by Kendall's Tau were computed - 19 periods of streamflow multiplied by the 3 streamflow statistics plus 12 additional trend analyses because the periods of record for 2 streamflow-gaging stations were divided into periods representing pre- and post-reservoir impoundment. Unless otherwise described, each trend analysis used the entire period of record for each streamflow-gaging station. The monotonic trend analysis detected 11 statistically significant downward trends, 37 instances of no trend, and 21 statistically significant upward trends. One general region studied, which seemingly has relatively more upward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed, includes the rivers and associated creeks and bayous to Galveston Bay in the Houston metropolitan area. Lastly, the most western river basins considered (the Nueces and Rio Grande) had statistically significant downward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed.

FIRST OBSERVATIONAL SIGNATURE OF ROTATIONAL DECELERATION IN A MASSIVE, INTERMEDIATE-AGE STAR CLUSTER IN THE MAGELLANIC CLOUDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Xiaohan; Li, Chengyuan; De Grijs, Richard

While the extended main-sequence turnoffs (eMSTOs) found in almost all 1–2 Gyr old star clusters in the Magellanic Clouds are often explained by postulating extended star formation histories (SFHs), the tight subgiant branches (SGBs) seen in some clusters challenge this popular scenario. Puzzlingly, the SGB of the eMSTO cluster NGC 419 is significantly broader at bluer than at redder colors. We carefully assess and confirm the reality of this observational trend. If we would assume that the widths of the features in color–magnitude space were entirely owing to a range in stellar ages, the SFHs of the eMSTO stars andmore » the blue SGB region would be significantly more prolonged than that of the red part of the SGB. This cannot be explained by assuming an internal age spread. We show that rotational deceleration of a population of rapidly rotating stars, a currently hotly debated alternative scenario, naturally explains the observed trend along the SGB. Our analysis shows that a “converging” SGB could be produced if the cluster is mostly composed of rapidly rotating stars that slow down over time owing to the conservation of angular momentum during their evolutionary expansion from main-sequence turnoff stars to red giants.« less

The Missing Response to Selection in the Wild.

PubMed

Pujol, Benoit; Blanchet, Simon; Charmantier, Anne; Danchin, Etienne; Facon, Benoit; Marrot, Pascal; Roux, Fabrice; Scotti, Ivan; Teplitsky, Céline; Thomson, Caroline E; Winney, Isabel

2018-05-01

Although there are many examples of contemporary directional selection, evidence for responses to selection that match predictions are often missing in quantitative genetic studies of wild populations. This is despite the presence of genetic variation and selection pressures - theoretical prerequisites for the response to selection. This conundrum can be explained by statistical issues with accurate parameter estimation, and by biological mechanisms that interfere with the response to selection. These biological mechanisms can accelerate or constrain this response. These mechanisms are generally studied independently but might act simultaneously. We therefore integrated these mechanisms to explore their potential combined effect. This has implications for explaining the apparent evolutionary stasis of wild populations and the conservation of wildlife. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Codon usage in Chlamydia trachomatis is the result of strand-specific mutational biases and a complex pattern of selective forces

PubMed Central

Romero, Héctor; Zavala, Alejandro; Musto, Héctor

2000-01-01

The patterns of synonymous codon choices of the completely sequenced genome of the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis were analysed. We found that the most important source of variation among the genes results from whether the sequence is located on the leading or lagging strand of replication, resulting in an over representation of G or C, respectively. This can be explained by different mutational biases associated to the different enzymes that replicate each strand. Next we found that most highly expressed sequences are located on the leading strand of replication. From this result, replicational-transcriptional selection can be invoked. Then, when the genes located on the leading strand are studied separately, the correspondence analysis detects a principal trend which discriminates between lowly and highly expressed sequences, the latter displaying a different codon usage pattern than the former, suggesting selection for translation, which is reinforced by the fact that Ks values between orthologous sequences from C.trachomatis and Chlamydia pneumoniae are much smaller in highly expressed genes. Finally, synonymous codon choices appear to be influenced by the hydropathy of each encoded protein and by the degree of amino acid conservation. Therefore, synonymous codon usage in C.trachomatis seems to be the result of a very complex balance among different factors, which rises the problem of whether the forces driving codon usage patterns among microorganisms are rather more complex than generally accepted. PMID:10773076

Codon usage in Chlamydia trachomatis is the result of strand-specific mutational biases and a complex pattern of selective forces.

PubMed

Romero, H; Zavala, A; Musto, H

2000-05-15

The patterns of synonymous codon choices of the completely sequenced genome of the bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis were analysed. We found that the most important source of variation among the genes results from whether the sequence is located on the leading or lagging strand of replication, resulting in an over representation of G or C, respectively. This can be explained by different mutational biases associated to the different enzymes that replicate each strand. Next we found that most highly expressed sequences are located on the leading strand of replication. From this result, replicational-transcriptional selection can be invoked. Then, when the genes located on the leading strand are studied separately, the correspondence analysis detects a principal trend which discriminates between lowly and highly expressed sequences, the latter displaying a different codon usage pattern than the former, suggesting selection for translation, which is reinforced by the fact that Ks values between orthologous sequences from C. trachomatis and Chlamydia pneumoniae are much smaller in highly expressed genes. Finally, synonymous codon choices appear to be influenced by the hydropathy of each encoded protein and by the degree of amino acid conservation. Therefore, synonymous codon usage in C.trachomatis seems to be the result of a very complex balance among different factors, which rises the problem of whether the forces driving codon usage patterns among microorganisms are rather more complex than generally accepted.

Distributed Multimedia Computing: An Assessment of the State of the Art.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Neil; And Others

1991-01-01

Describes multimedia computing and the characteristics of multimedia information. Trends in information technology are reviewed; distributed multimedia computing is explained; media types are described, including digital media; and multimedia applications are examined, including office systems, documents, information storage and retrieval,…

Creating Training Miracles.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rylatt, Alastair; Lohan, Kevin

This book, which is intended as a comprehensive practical reference source for training professionals, consultants, and managers, examines emerging trends in training and explains how to get training results in the workplace by using various educational strategies and advanced training methods. The following are among the topics discussed:…

Optical Properties of Three Beach Waters: Implications for Predictive Modeling of Enterococci

EPA Science Inventory

Sunlight plays an important role in the inactivation of fecal indicator bacteria in recreational waters. Solar radiation can explain temporal trends in bacterial counts and is commonly used as an explanatory variable in predictive models. Broadband surface radiation provides a ba...

Defense Primer: The National Defense Budget Function (050)

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-17

in parenthesis). This defense primer addresses the National Defense Budget (050), which is frequently used to explain trends in military spending...but which also includes some activities not conducted by the Department of Defense. What Is the Purpose of the Budget Function System? The budget

Economics of wildland fire management

Treesearch

David Calkin; Krista Gebert

2009-01-01

Increased wildland fire activity and associated suppression costs over the last decade have significantly challenged federal agencies' ability to manage the nation's lands and meet public expectations. Three common factors have typically been identified to explain this increasing cost trend: 1) increased development within the wildland urban interface...

Contribution of Changing Sources and Sinks to the Growth Rate of Atmospheric Methane Concentrations for the Last Two Decades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthews, Elaine; Walter, B.; Bogner, J.; Sarma, D.; Portney, B.; Hansen, James (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

In situ measurements of atmospheric methane concentrations begun in the early 1980s show decadal trends, as well as large interannual variations, in growth rate. Recent research indicates that while wetlands can explain several of the large growth anomalies for individual years, the decadal trend may be the combined effect of increasing sinks, due to increases in tropospheric OH, and stabilizing sources. We discuss new 20-year histories of annual, global source strengths for all major methane sources, i.e., natural wetlands, rice cultivation, ruminant animals, landfills, fossil fuels, and biomass burning, and present estimates of the temporal pattern of the sink required to reconcile these sources and atmospheric concentrations over the time period. Analysis of the individual emission sources, together with model-derived estimates of the OH sink strength, indicates that the growth rate of atmospheric methane observed over the last 20 years can only be explained by a combination of changes in source emissions and an increasing tropospheric sink.

Transport of ice into the stratosphere and the humidification of the stratosphere over the 21st century.

PubMed

Dessler, A E; Ye, H; Wang, T; Schoeberl, M R; Oman, L D; Douglass, A R; Butler, A H; Rosenlof, K H; Davis, S M; Portmann, R W

2016-03-16

Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by ~1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50-80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales - on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community.

Transport of ice into the stratosphere and the humidification of the stratosphere over the 21st century

PubMed Central

Dessler, A.E.; Ye, H.; Wang, T.; Schoeberl, M.R.; Oman, L.D.; Douglass, A.R.; Butler, A.H.; Rosenlof, K.H.; Davis, S.M.; Portmann, R.W.

2018-01-01

Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by ~1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50–80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales — on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community. PMID:29551841

Transport of Ice into the Stratosphere and the Humidification of the Stratosphere over the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dessler, A. E.; Ye, H.; Wang, T.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Oman, L. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Butler, A. H.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Davis, S. M.; Portmann, R. W.

2016-01-01

Climate models predict that tropical lower-stratospheric humidity will increase as the climate warms. We examine this trend in two state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models. Under high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the stratospheric entry value of water vapor increases by approx. 1 part per million by volume (ppmv) over this century in both models. We show with trajectory runs driven by model meteorological fields that the warming tropical tropopause layer (TTL) explains 50-80% of this increase. The remainder is a consequence of trends in evaporation of ice convectively lofted into the TTL and lower stratosphere. Our results further show that, within the models we examined, ice lofting is primarily important on long time scales - on interannual time scales, TTL temperature variations explain most of the variations in lower stratospheric humidity. Assessing the ability of models to realistically represent ice-lofting processes should be a high priority in the modeling community.

Exploring Potential Reasons for the Temporal Trend in Dialysis-Requiring AKI in the United States

PubMed Central

McCulloch, Charles E.; Heung, Michael; Saran, Rajiv; Shahinian, Vahakn B.; Pavkov, Meda E.; Burrows, Nilka Ríos; Powe, Neil R.; Hsu, Chi-yuan

2016-01-01

Background and objectives The population incidence of dialysis-requiring AKI has risen substantially in the last decade in the United States, and factors associated with this temporal trend are not well known. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a United States nationally representative database of hospitalizations from 2007 to 2009. We used validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes to identify hospitalizations with dialysis-requiring AKI and then, selected the diagnostic and procedure codes most highly associated with dialysis-requiring AKI in 2009. We applied multivariable logistic regression adjusting for demographics and used a backward selection technique to identify a set of diagnoses or a set of procedures that may be a driver for this changing risk in dialysis-requiring AKI. Results From 2007 to 2009, the population incidence of dialysis-requiring AKI increased by 11% per year (95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.16; P<0.001). Using backward selection, we found that the temporal trend in the six diagnoses, septicemia, hypertension, respiratory failure, coagulation/hemorrhagic disorders, shock, and liver disease, sufficiently and fully accounted for the temporal trend in dialysis-requiring AKI. In contrast, temporal trends in 15 procedures most commonly associated with dialysis-requiring AKI did not account for the increasing dialysis–requiring AKI trend. Conclusions The increasing risk of dialysis-requiring AKI among hospitalized patients in the United States was highly associated with the changing burden of six acute and chronic conditions but not with surgeries and procedures. PMID:26683890

Trends in the size distribution, highway use, and consumption of gasoline and diesel fuels of the U.S. Commercial Truck Fleet, 1977-2002.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bertram, K. M.; Santini, D. J.; Anderson, J. L.

2008-01-01

This paper focuses on various major long-range (1977-2002, 1982-2002) U.S. commercial trucking trends by using U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Vehicle/Truck Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS/TIUS) data from this period, as well as selected 1977-2002 data from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA's) Highway Statistics. Analyses are made of (1) overall passenger vehicle versus truck consumption patterns of gasoline and diesel fuel and (2) the population growth and fuels used by all commercial truck classes and selected truck types (single unit and combination).more » Selected vehicle miles traveled, gallons per vehicle miles traveled, and gallons per cargo ton-miles traveled trends, as well as the effect of cargo tons per truck on fuel consumption, are also assessed. In addition, long-range trends of related factors (such as long-haul mileages driven by heavy trucks) and their impacts on both reducing fuel consumption per cargo-ton-mile and the relative shares of total commercial fuel use among truck classes were examined. Results of these trends on U.S. petroleum consumption are identified. The effects of basic engineering design and performance, national Interstate highway construction legislation, national demographic trends (such as suburbanization), and changes in U.S. corporate operational requirements are discussed. Their impacts on both the long-distance hauling and shorter-distance urban and suburban delivery markets of the commercial trucking industry are highlighted.« less

Water quality in Indiana: trends in concentrations of selected nutrients, metals, and ions in streams, 2000-10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risch, Martin R.; Bunch, Aubrey R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Martin, Jeffrey D.; Baker, Nancy T.

2014-01-01

Statistically significant trends were identified that included 167 downward trends and 83 upward trends. The Kankakee River Basin had the most significant upward trends while the most significant downward trends were in the Whitewater River Basin, the Lake Michigan Basin, and the Patoka River Basin. For most constituents, a majority of sites had significant downward trends. Two streams in the Lake Michigan Basin have shown substantial decreases in most constituents. The West Fork White River near Indianapolis, Indiana, showed increases in nitrate and phosphorus and the Kankakee River Basin showed increases in copper, zinc, chloride, sulfate, and hardness. Upward trends in nutrients were identified at a few sites, but most nutrient trends were downward. Upward trends in metals corresponded with relatively small concentration increases while downward trends involved considerably larger concentration changes. Downward trends in chloride, sulfate, and suspended solids were observed statewide, but upward trends in hardness were observed in the northern half of Indiana.

The Internet: Trends and Directions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Byron

1996-01-01

Examines current trends and directions in information technology and telecommunications. Discusses legislation; mergers and acquisitions; Internet service providers; fiscal control in libraries and the pooling of electronic information access through consortiums; demand for more bandwidth; technology selection; Internet usage patterns; the…

Adaptive selection of diurnal minimum variation: a statistical strategy to obtain representative atmospheric CO2 data and its application to European elevated mountain stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Ye; Ries, Ludwig; Petermeier, Hannes; Steinbacher, Martin; Gómez-Peláez, Angel J.; Leuenberger, Markus C.; Schumacher, Marcus; Trickl, Thomas; Couret, Cedric; Meinhardt, Frank; Menzel, Annette

2018-03-01

Critical data selection is essential for determining representative baseline levels of atmospheric trace gases even at remote measurement sites. Different data selection techniques have been used around the world, which could potentially lead to reduced compatibility when comparing data from different stations. This paper presents a novel statistical data selection method named adaptive diurnal minimum variation selection (ADVS) based on CO2 diurnal patterns typically occurring at elevated mountain stations. Its capability and applicability were studied on records of atmospheric CO2 observations at six Global Atmosphere Watch stations in Europe, namely, Zugspitze-Schneefernerhaus (Germany), Sonnblick (Austria), Jungfraujoch (Switzerland), Izaña (Spain), Schauinsland (Germany), and Hohenpeissenberg (Germany). Three other frequently applied statistical data selection methods were included for comparison. Among the studied methods, our ADVS method resulted in a lower fraction of data selected as a baseline with lower maxima during winter and higher minima during summer in the selected data. The measured time series were analyzed for long-term trends and seasonality by a seasonal-trend decomposition technique. In contrast to unselected data, mean annual growth rates of all selected datasets were not significantly different among the sites, except for the data recorded at Schauinsland. However, clear differences were found in the annual amplitudes as well as the seasonal time structure. Based on a pairwise analysis of correlations between stations on the seasonal-trend decomposed components by statistical data selection, we conclude that the baseline identified by the ADVS method is a better representation of lower free tropospheric (LFT) conditions than baselines identified by the other methods.

Embryonic lethality is not sufficient to explain hourglass-like conservation of vertebrate embryos.

PubMed

Uchida, Yui; Uesaka, Masahiro; Yamamoto, Takayoshi; Takeda, Hiroyuki; Irie, Naoki

2018-01-01

Understanding the general trends in developmental changes during animal evolution, which are often associated with morphological diversification, has long been a central issue in evolutionary developmental biology. Recent comparative transcriptomic studies revealed that gene expression profiles of mid-embryonic period tend to be more evolutionarily conserved than those in earlier or later periods. While the hourglass-like divergence of developmental processes has been demonstrated in a variety of animal groups such as vertebrates, arthropods, and nematodes, the exact mechanism leading to this mid-embryonic conservation remains to be clarified. One possibility is that the mid-embryonic period (pharyngula period in vertebrates) is highly prone to embryonic lethality, and the resulting negative selections lead to evolutionary conservation of this phase. Here, we tested this "mid-embryonic lethality hypothesis" by measuring the rate of lethal phenotypes of three different species of vertebrate embryos subjected to two kinds of perturbations: transient perturbations and genetic mutations. By subjecting zebrafish ( Danio rerio ), African clawed frog ( Xenopus laevis ), and chicken ( Gallus gallus ) embryos to transient perturbations, namely heat shock and inhibitor treatments during three developmental periods [early (represented by blastula and gastrula), pharyngula, and late], we found that the early stages showed the highest rate of lethal phenotypes in all three species. This result was corroborated by perturbation with genetic mutations. By tracking the survival rate of wild-type embryos and embryos with genetic mutations induced by UV irradiation in zebrafish and African clawed frogs, we found that the highest decrease in survival rate was at the early stages particularly around gastrulation in both these species. In opposition to the "mid-embryonic lethality hypothesis," our results consistently showed that the stage with the highest lethality was not around the conserved pharyngula period, but rather around the early period in all the vertebrate species tested. These results suggest that negative selection by embryonic lethality could not explain hourglass-like conservation of animal embryos. This highlights the potential contribution of alternative mechanisms such as the diversifying effect of positive selections against earlier and later stages, and developmental constraints which lead to conservation of mid-embryonic stages.

Recent trends in paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound, relationships to climate, and capacity for prediction of toxic events

Treesearch

Stephanie K. Moore; Nathan J. Mantua; Barbara M. Hickey; Vera L. Trainer

2009-01-01

Temporal and spatial trends in paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) in Puget Sound shellfish and their relationships with climate are investigated using long-term monitoring data since 1957. Data are selected for trend analyses based on the sensitivity of shellfish species to PSTs and their depuration rates, and the frequency of sample collection at individual sites....

Understanding the importance of permanent and transitory shocks at business cycle horizons for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar

2008-05-01

The goal of this paper is to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in macroeconomic aggregates for the UK at business cycle horizons. Using the common trend-common cycle restrictions, we estimate a variance decomposition of shocks, and find that over short horizons the bulk of the variations in income and consumption were due to permanent shocks while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in investment. Our findings for income and consumption are consistent with real business cycle models which emphasize the role of aggregate supply shocks, while our findings for investment are consistent with the Keynesian school of thought, which emphasizes the role of aggregate demand shocks in explaining business cycles.

Meta-Analysis: Application to Clinical Dentistry and Dental Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Peter A.

1992-01-01

Meta-analysis is proposed as an effective alternative to conventional narrative review for extracting trends from research findings. This type of analysis is explained, advantages over more traditional review techniques are discussed, basic procedures and limitations are outlined, and potential applications in dental education and clinical…

Environmental Management Systems: A Framework for Planning Green Campuses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keniry, Julian

2003-01-01

Drawing on recent survey data from the National Wildlife Federation and other publications, explains what an environmental management system is and identifies its components; examines how environmental management systems have been applied in higher education settings; reports on trends in implementation; and illustrates how the environmental…

Pathways to the Future: Linking Environmental Scanning to Strategic Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mecca, Thomas V.; Morrison, James L.

1988-01-01

Describes an ED QUEST (Quick Environmental Scanning Technique) workshop demonstrating the links between an environmental scanning/forecasting process and formulation of institutional strategy. Explains ED QUEST's use in identifying and analyzing critical trends and events, and identifying the nature of the organization; developing alternative…

The Status of Blacks in Academic Philosophy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Leonard

1995-01-01

Reveals that there is a near total absence of black faculty teaching philosophy courses at American universities, particularly Ivy League Schools. The author explains why this has happened, why the trend is likely to continue, and why black colleges cannot be expected to pick up the slack. (GR)

Trends in the educational gradient of mortality among US adults aged 45 to 84 years: bringing regional context into the explanation.

PubMed

Montez, Jennifer Karas; Berkman, Lisa F

2014-01-01

We investigated trends in the educational gradient of US adult mortality, which has increased at the national level since the mid-1980s, within US regions. We used data from the 1986-2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality File on non-Hispanic White and Black adults aged 45 to 84 years (n = 498,517). We examined trends in the gradient within 4 US regions by race-gender subgroup by using age-standardized death rates. Trends in the gradient exhibited a few subtle regional differences. Among women, the gradient was often narrowest in the Northeast. The region's distinction grew over time mainly because low-educated women in the Northeast did not experience a significant increase in mortality like their counterparts in other regions (particularly for White women). Among White men, the gradient narrowed to a small degree in the West. The subtle regional differences indicate that geographic context can accentuate or suppress trends in the gradient. Studies of smaller areas may provide insights into the specific contextual characteristics (e.g., state tax policies) that have shaped the trends, and thus help explain and reverse the widening mortality disparities among US adults.

The Impact of Trends in the Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation on Mediterranean Surface Turbulent Heat Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanski, Joy; Hameed, Sultan

2015-01-01

Interannual variations of latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Mediterranean for the boreal winter season (DJF) show positive trends during 1958-2011. Using reanalysis and satellite-based products, the variability and trends in the heat fluxes are compared with variations in three atmospheric teleconnection patterns: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the pressure and position of the Azores High (AH), and the East Atlantic-West Russia teleconnection pattern (EAWR). Comparison of correlations between the heat fluxes and teleconnections, along with analysis of composites of surface temperature, humidity, and wind fields for different teleconnection states, demonstrates that the AH explains the heat flux changes more successfully than NAO and EAWR. Trends in pressure and longitude of the Azores High show a strengthening and an eastward shift. Variations of the Azores High occur along an axis defined by lower pressure and westward location at one extreme and higher pressure and eastward location at the other extreme. The shift of the AH from predominance of the low/west state to the high/east state induces trends in Mediterranean Sea surface winds, temperature, and moisture. These, combined with sea surface warming trends, produce trends in wintertime sensible and latent heat fluxes.

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Variability and trends in runoff efficiency in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2016-01-01

Variability and trends in water-year runoff efficiency (RE) — computed as the ratio of water-year runoff (streamflow per unit area) to water-year precipitation — in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined for the 1951 through 2012 period. Changes in RE are analyzed using runoff and precipitation data aggregated to United States Geological Survey 8-digit hydrologic cataloging units (HUs). Results indicate increases in RE for some regions in the north-central CONUS and large decreases in RE for the south-central CONUS. The increases in RE in the north-central CONUS are explained by trends in climate, whereas the large decreases in RE in the south-central CONUS likely are related to groundwater withdrawals from the Ogallala aquifer to support irrigated agriculture.

Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.

PubMed

Litzow, Michael A; Mueter, Franz J; Hobday, Alistair J

2014-01-01

In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1-2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Selection against Heteroplasmy Explains the Evolution of Uniparental Inheritance of Mitochondria

PubMed Central

Christie, Joshua R.; Schaerf, Timothy M.; Beekman, Madeleine

2015-01-01

Why are mitochondria almost always inherited from one parent during sexual reproduction? Current explanations for this evolutionary mystery include conflict avoidance between the nuclear and mitochondrial genomes, clearing of deleterious mutations, and optimization of mitochondrial-nuclear coadaptation. Mathematical models, however, fail to show that uniparental inheritance can replace biparental inheritance under any existing hypothesis. Recent empirical evidence indicates that mixing two different but normal mitochondrial haplotypes within a cell (heteroplasmy) can cause cell and organism dysfunction. Using a mathematical model, we test if selection against heteroplasmy can lead to the evolution of uniparental inheritance. When we assume selection against heteroplasmy and mutations are neither advantageous nor deleterious (neutral mutations), uniparental inheritance replaces biparental inheritance for all tested parameter values. When heteroplasmy involves mutations that are advantageous or deleterious (non-neutral mutations), uniparental inheritance can still replace biparental inheritance. We show that uniparental inheritance can evolve with or without pre-existing mating types. Finally, we show that selection against heteroplasmy can explain why some organisms deviate from strict uniparental inheritance. Thus, we suggest that selection against heteroplasmy explains the evolution of uniparental inheritance. PMID:25880558

SPECIES, TEPEES, SCOTTIES, AND JOCKEYS: SELECTED BY CONSEQUENCES

PubMed Central

Wasserman, Edward A

2012-01-01

“Ideas are like species: they must evolve.” This claim forms the conceptual core of an engaging book by Jonnie Hughes (2011), On the Origin of Tepees. Hughes asks: If evolution by natural selection explains the origin of the human species, then does selection by consequences also explain the origin of what we humans make and do? This question prompts consideration of three important analogies: between natural selection and artificial selection, between the law of natural selection and the law of effect, and between biological evolution and cultural evolution. These analogies in turn stimulate examination of the notions of purpose, design, and agency. Finally, discussion moves to the selectionism of Darwin and Skinner; although still controversial, this view remains the best way for natural science to understand the origins of adaptive behavior.

A Review of Recent Changes in Southern Ocean Sea Ice, Their Drivers and Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hobbs, William R.; Massom, Rob; Stammerjohn, Sharon; Reid, Phillip; Williams, Guy; Meier, Walter

2016-01-01

Over the past 37years, satellite records show an increase in Antarctic sea ice cover that is most pronounced in the period of sea ice growth. This trend is dominated by increased sea ice coverage in the western Ross Sea, and is mitigated by a strong decrease in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. The trends in sea ice areal coverage are accompanied by related trends in yearly duration. These changes have implications for ecosystems, as well as global and regional climate. In this review, we summarize the researchto date on observing these trends, identifying their drivers, and assessing the role of anthropogenic climate change. Whilst the atmosphere is thought to be the primary driver, the ocean is also essential in explaining the seasonality of the trend patterns. Detecting an anthropogenic signal in Antarctic sea ice is particularly challenging for a number of reasons: the expected response is small compared to the very high natural variability of the system; the observational record is relatively short; and the ability of global coupled climate models to faithfully represent the complex Antarctic climate system is in doubt.

Origin of Unusual Dependencies of LUMO Levels on Conjugation Length in Quinoidal Fused Oligosiloles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misawa, Nana; Fujii, Mikiya; Shintani, Ryo; Tsuda, Tomohiro; Nozaki, Kyoko; Yamashita, Koichi

Quinoidal fused oligosiloles, a new family of silicon-bridged π-conjugated compounds, have been synthesized and their physical properties showed a unique trend in their LUMO levels, which become higher with longer π-conjugation. Although this trend was reproduced by the DFT calculations, its origin remained to be discussed. In this work we performed quantum chemical calculations and discovered that the unusual LUMO trend is attributable to the π-frameworks. We elucidated its origin by orbital correlation diagrams based on classical Hückel calculations, essentially. However, LUMO trends cannot fully be explained only by Hückel calculations because of the lack of the consideration of geometries. In the case of quinoidal fused oligosiloles, judging from DFT calculation results, the presence of silole fused structure play an important role in fixing the bond angles of the linear polyenes as an interior angle of siloles, leading to the unusual LUMO behavior. The qualitative but essential understanding of these LUMO trend would provide new insight into molecular design of π-conjugated compounds for tuning their LUMO levels.

Cocaine use and syphilis trends: findings from the arrestee drug abuse monitoring (ADAM) program and syphilis epidemiology in Houston.

PubMed

Ross, Michael W; Risser, Jan; Peters, Ronald J; Johnson, Regina J

2006-01-01

There has been speculation that trends in syphilis have been fueled by crack cocaine use. This study examined the data on syphilis notifications and arrestee drug abuse monitoring (ADAM) to ascertain the relationships between syphilis and cocaine use trends in three racial/ethnic groups. Syphilis notifications and data from the ADAM project were compared in Houston/Harris County, Texas, from 1991-1998 using a linear regression equation. Data indicated significant relationships between the data for cocaine use and syphilis in African Americans but not Hispanics or non-Hispanic whites. For African Americans, 58% of the variance between cocaine use and syphilis was explained. When data limited to jail syphilis notifications and ADAM cocaine in African Americans were examined, the association was stronger for males than for females. For African Americans, cocaine (probably crack cocaine) use trends were significantly associated with syphilis trends in this population. These data suggest that control of crack cocaine may have an impact on syphilis rates and that there may be close relationships between some STDs and drug abuse.

Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?

PubMed

Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang

2015-09-02

The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998-2013 (0.25 °C decade(-1)), compared with that during 1980-1997 (0.21 °C decade(-1)). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud-radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud-radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau.

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the Oscillation indices for North Carolina.

Seasonal and elevational contrasts in temperature trends in Central Chile between 1979 and 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burger, F.; Brock, B.; Montecinos, A.

2018-03-01

We analyze trends in temperature from 18 temperature stations and one upper air sounding site at 30°-35° S in central Chile between 1979-2015, to explore geographical and season temperature trends and their controls, using regional ocean-atmosphere indices. Significant warming trends are widespread at inland stations, while trends are non-significant or negative at coastal sites, as found in previous studies. However, ubiquitous warming across the region in the past 8 years, suggests the recent period of coastal cooling has ended. Significant warming trends are largely restricted to austral spring, summer and autumn seasons, with very few significant positive or negative trends in winter identified. Autumn warming is notably strong in the Andes, which, together with significant warming in spring, could help to explain the negative mass balance of snow and glaciers in the region. A strong Pacific maritime influence on regional temperature trends is inferred through correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index and coastal sea surface temperature, but the strength of this influence rapidly diminishes inland, and the majority of valley, and all Andes, sites are independent of the IPO index. Instead, valley and Andes sites, and mid-troposphere temperature in the coastal radiosonde profile, show correlation with the autumn Antarctic Oscillation which, in its current positive phase, promotes subsidence and warming at the latitude of central Chile.

The Nation's Rivers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolman, M. Gordon

1971-01-01

Illustrates difficulties in measuring long term changes in water temperature and content of dissolved oxygen, inorganic ions, radiation, pesticides, and trash and debris by reference to selected U. S. river systems. Concludes that observations to detect polluters may not provide data for assessing trends and trend reversals. (AL)

Concentrations and trends of Perfluorinated chemicals in potential indoor sources from 2007 through 2011 in the US

EPA Science Inventory

Certain perfluorinated chemicals in consumer products have been associated with developmental toxicity and other adverse health effects. Temporal trends in the concentrations of selected perfluorinated chemicals (PFCs), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and other perfluoroc...

Trends in Public Library Buildings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holt, Raymond M.

1987-01-01

Review of trends in public library buildings covers cycles in building activity; financial support; site selection; expansion, remodeling, or conversion of existing buildings; size of buildings; and such architectural concerns as flexible space, lighting, power, accommodation of computer systems, heat and ventilation, fire protection, security,…

Estimating global cropland production from 1961 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Pengfei; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Lin, Xiaohui

2017-09-01

Global cropland net primary production (NPP) has tripled over the last 50 years, contributing 17-45 % to the increase in global atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude. Although many regional-scale comparisons have been made between statistical data and modeling results, long-term national comparisons across global croplands are scarce due to the lack of detailed spatiotemporal management data. Here, we conducted a simulation study of global cropland NPP from 1961 to 2010 using a process-based model called Vegetation-Global Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) and compared the results with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistical data on both continental and country scales. According to the FAO data, the global cropland NPP was 1.3, 1.8, 2.2, 2.6, 3.0, and 3.6 PgC yr-1 in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, respectively. The VEGAS model captured these major trends on global and continental scales. The NPP increased most notably in the US Midwest, western Europe, and the North China Plain and increased modestly in Africa and Oceania. However, significant biases remained in some regions such as Africa and Oceania, especially in temporal evolution. This finding is not surprising as VEGAS is the first global carbon cycle model with full parameterization representing the Green Revolution. To improve model performance for different major regions, we modified the default values of management intensity associated with the agricultural Green Revolution differences across various regions to better match the FAO statistical data at the continental level and for selected countries. Across all the selected countries, the updated results reduced the RMSE from 19.0 to 10.5 TgC yr-1 (˜ 45 % decrease). The results suggest that these regional differences in model parameterization are due to differences in socioeconomic development. To better explain the past changes and predict the future trends, it is important to calibrate key parameters on regional scales and develop data sets for land management history.

Monitoring the aftermath of Flint drinking water contamination crisis: Another case of sampling bias?

PubMed

Goovaerts, Pierre

2017-07-15

The delay in reporting high levels of lead in Flint drinking water, following the city's switch to the Flint River as its water supply, was partially caused by the biased selection of sampling sites away from the lead pipe network. Since Flint returned to its pre-crisis source of drinking water, the State has been monitoring water lead levels (WLL) at selected "sentinel" sites. In a first phase that lasted two months, 739 residences were sampled, most of them bi-weekly, to determine the general health of the distribution system and to track temporal changes in lead levels. During the same period, water samples were also collected through a voluntary program whereby concerned citizens received free testing kits and conducted sampling on their own. State officials relied on the former data to demonstrate the steady improvement in water quality. A recent analysis of data collected by voluntary sampling revealed, however, an opposite trend with lead levels increasing over time. This paper looks at potential sampling bias to explain such differences. Although houses with higher WLL were more likely to be sampled repeatedly, voluntary sampling turned out to reproduce fairly well the main characteristics (i.e. presence of lead service lines (LSL), construction year) of Flint housing stock. State-controlled sampling was less representative; e.g., sentinel sites with LSL were mostly built between 1935 and 1950 in lower poverty areas, which might hamper our ability to disentangle the effects of LSL and premise plumbing (lead fixtures and pipes present within old houses) on WLL. Also, there was no sentinel site with LSL in two of the most impoverished wards, including where the percentage of children with elevated blood lead levels tripled following the switch in water supply. Correcting for sampling bias narrowed the gap between sampling programs, yet overall temporal trends are still opposite. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Directionality theory and the evolution of body size.

PubMed

Demetrius, L

2000-12-07

Directionality theory, a dynamic theory of evolution that integrates population genetics with demography, is based on the concept of evolutionary entropy, a measure of the variability in the age of reproducing individuals in a population. The main tenets of the theory are three principles relating the response to the ecological constraints a population experiences, with trends in entropy as the population evolves under mutation and natural selection. (i) Stationary size or fluctuations around a stationary size (bounded growth): a unidirectional increase in entropy; (ii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), large population size: a unidirectional decrease in entropy; and (iii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), small population size: random, non-directional change in entropy. We invoke these principles, together with an allometric relationship between entropy, and the morphometric variable body size, to provide evolutionary explanations of three empirical patterns pertaining to trends in body size, namely (i) Cope's rule, the tendency towards size increase within phyletic lineages; (ii) the island rule, which pertains to changes in body size that occur as species migrate from mainland populations to colonize island habitats; and (iii) Bergmann's rule, the tendency towards size increase with increasing latitude. The observation that these ecotypic patterns can be explained in terms of the directionality principles for entropy underscores the significance of evolutionary entropy as a unifying concept in forging a link between micro-evolution, the dynamics of gene frequency change, and macro-evolution, dynamic changes in morphometric variables.

Proteomic and metabolic traits of grape exocarp to explain different anthocyanin concentrations of the cultivars

PubMed Central

Negri, Alfredo S.; Prinsi, Bhakti; Failla, Osvaldo; Scienza, Attilio; Espen, Luca

2015-01-01

The role of grape berry skin as a protective barrier against damage by physical injuries and pathogen attacks requires a metabolism able to sustain biosynthetic activities such as those relating to secondary compounds (i.e., flavonoids). In order to draw the attention on these biochemical processes, a proteomic and metabolomic comparative analysis was performed among Riesling Italico, Pinot Gris, Pinot Noir, and Croatina cultivars, which are known to accumulate anthocyanins to a different extent. The application of multivariate statistics on the dataset pointed out that the cultivars were distinguishable from each other and the order in which they were grouped mainly reflected their relative anthocyanin contents. Sorting the spots according to their significance 100 proteins were characterized by LC-ESI-MS/MS. Through GC-MS, performed in Selected Ion Monitoring (SIM) mode, 57 primary metabolites were analyzed and the differences in abundance of 16 of them resulted statistically significant to ANOVA test. Considering the functional distribution, the identified proteins were involved in many physiological processes such as stress, defense, carbon metabolism, energy conversion and secondary metabolism. The trends of some metabolites were related to those of the protein data. Taken together, the results permitted to highlight the relationships between the secondary compound pathways and the main metabolism (e.g., glycolysis and TCA cycle). Moreover, the trend of accumulation of many proteins involved in stress responses, reinforced the idea that they could play a role in the cultivar specific developmental plan. PMID:26300900

Vegetarian diet as a risk factor for symptomatic gallstone disease.

PubMed

McConnell, T J; Appleby, P N; Key, T J

2017-06-01

Previous small studies have shown either no difference or a lower risk of symptomatic gallstone disease in vegetarians than in non-vegetarians. This study examined the incidence of symptomatic gallstone disease in a cohort of British vegetarians and non-vegetarians, and investigated the associations between nutrient intake and risk of symptomatic gallstone disease. The data were analysed from 49 652 adults enroled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Oxford study, one-third of whom were vegetarian. The linked databases of hospital records were used to identify incident cases. Risk by diet group was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Further analysis quantified risk by intakes of selected macronutrients. There were 1182 cases of symptomatic gallstone disease during 687 822 person-years of follow-up (mean=13.85 years). There was a large significant association between increasing body mass index (BMI) and risk of developing symptomatic gallstone disease (overall trend P<0.001). After adjustment for BMI and other risk factors, vegetarians had a moderately increased risk compared with non-vegetarians (HR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.06-1.41; P=0.006). Although starch consumption was positively associated with gallstones risk (P=0.002 for trend), it did not explain the increased risk in vegetarians. There is a highly significant association of increased BMI with risk of symptomatic gallstone disease. After adjusting for BMI, there is a small but statistically significant positive association between vegetarian diet and symptomatic gallstone disease.

Selected AB4 2−/− (A = C, Si, Ge; B = Al, Ga, In) ions: a battle between covalency and aromaticity, and prediction of square planar Si in SiIn4 2−/−†

PubMed Central

Alexandrova, Anastassia N.; Nayhouse, Michael J.; Huynh, Mioy T.; Kuo, Jonathan L.; Melkonian, Arek V.; Chavez, Gerardo; Hernando, Nina M.; Kowal, Matthew D.; Liu, Chi-Ping

2012-01-01

CAl4 2−/− (D4h, 1A1g) is a cluster ion that has been established to be planar, aromatic, and contain a tetracoordinate planar C atom. Valence isoelectronic substitution of C with Si and Ge in this cluster leads to a radical change of structure toward distorted pentagonal species. We find that this structural change goes together with the cluster acquiring partial covalency of bonding between Si/Ge and Al4, facilitated by hybridization of the atomic orbitals (AOs). Counter intuitively, for the AAl4 2−/− (A = C, Si, Ge) clusters, hybridization in the dopant atom is strengthened from C, to Si, and to Ge, even though typically AOs are more likely to hybridize if they are closer in energy (i.e. in earlier elements in the Periodic Table). The trend is explained by the better overlap of the hybrids of the heavier dopants with the orbitals of Al4. From the thus understood trend, it is inferred that covalency in such clusters can be switched off, by varying the relative sizes of the AOs of the main element and the dopant. Using this mechanism, we then successfully killed covalency in Si, and predicted a new aromatic cluster ion containing a tetracoordinate square planar Si, SiIn4 2−/−. PMID:22868353

A study of the trace sulfide mineral assemblages in the Stillwater Complex, Montana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aird, Hannah M.; Ferguson, Katherine M.; Lehrer, Malia L.; Boudreau, Alan E.

2017-03-01

The sulfide assemblages of the Stillwater Complex away from the well-studied ore zones are composed mainly of variable proportions of pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, pentlandite, and ±pyrite. Excluding vein assemblages and those affected by greenschist and lower temperature alteration, the majority can be classified into two broad assemblages, defined here as pristine (multiphase, often globular in shape) or volatile-bearing (multiphase, high-temperature, volatile-rich minerals such as biotite, hornblende, or an unmixed calcite-dolomite assemblage). The volatile-bearing assemblages are mainly found within and below the J-M reef, where native copper and sphalerite are also locally present. Pristine sulfides are found throughout the stratigraphy. Both groups can be affected by apparent S loss in the form of pyrite being converted to magnetite and chalcopyrite to a Cu-Fe-oxide (delafossite), with little to no silicate alteration. An upward trend from pentlandite-rich to pyrrhotite-rich to pyrite-rich assemblages is observed in the footwall rocks in upper GN-I, and the same trend repeats from just below the reef and continues into the overlying N-II and GN-II. Modeling suggests that the sulfide Ni in the Peridotite Zone is largely controlled by silicate Ni. When taken together, observations are most readily explained by the remobilization of selected elements by a high-temperature fluid with the apparent loss of S > Cu > Ni. This could concentrate ore metals by vapor refining, eventually producing a platinum group element-enriched sulfide ore zone, such as the J-M reef.

The fiscal crisis in the health sector: Patterns of cutback management across Europe.

PubMed

Ongaro, Edoardo; Ferré, Francesca; Fattore, Giovanni

2015-07-01

The article investigates trends in health sector cutback management strategies occurred during the ongoing financial and fiscal crisis across Europe. A European-wide survey to top public healthcare managers was conducted in ten different countries to understand their perception about public sector policy reactions to the financial and economic crisis; answers from 760 respondents from the healthcare sector (30.7% response rate) were analyzed. A multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the characteristics of respondents, countries' institutional healthcare models and the trend in public health resources availability during the crisis associated to the decision to introduce unselective cuts, targeted cuts or efficiency savings measures. Differentiated responses to the fiscal crisis that buffeted public finances were reported both across and within countries. Organizational position of respondents is significant in explaining the perceived cutback management approach introduced, where decentralized positions detect a higher use of linear cuts compared to their colleagues working in central level organizations. Compared to Bismark-like systems Beveridge-like ones favour the introduction of targeted cuts. Postponing the implementation of new programmes and containing expenses through instruments like pay freezes are some of the most popular responses adopted, while outright staff layoffs or reduction of frontline services have been more selectively employed. To cope with the effects of the fiscal crisis healthcare systems are undergoing important changes, possibly also affecting the scope of universal coverage. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

PubMed

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Melioidosis, Singapore, 2003–2014

PubMed Central

Pang, Long; Harris, Patrick N.A.; Seiler, Rachel L.; Ooi, Peng Lim; Cutter, Jeffrey; Goh, Kee Tai; Cook, Alex R.; Fisher, Dale

2018-01-01

In contrast with northern Australia and Thailand, in Singapore the incidence of melioidosis and co-incidence of melioidosis and pneumonia have declined. Burkholderia pseudomallei deep abscesses increased 20.4% during 2003–2014. These trends could not be explained by the environmental and climatic factors conventionally ascribed to melioidosis. PMID:29260679

Enrollment Trends at University of Alaska Community Campuses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldsmith, Scott; Hill, Alexandra; Killorin, Mary

2005-01-01

In this report, Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, investigated the factors that explain change over time in enrollments and credit hours (participation) at the community campuses of the University of Alaska using both quantitative and qualitative methods. Sections include: (1) Background; (2) Factors…

Locker Room Talk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fickes, Michael

1999-01-01

Examines the trends in college and university sports and recreation center locker rooms as envisioned by a specialist. Features of the modern locker room and the different levels of locker room design are explained. Final comments discuss whether college and university facility managers are inclined to move to high-end locker rooms. (GR)

Gold in Gray: Reflections on Business' Discovery of the Elderly Market.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minkler, Meredith

1989-01-01

Examines changes in business sector's stereotype of elderly population from negligible consumer group to $500 billion market. Explains recent trends using concepts of privatization, consumerism, and rise of geriatric social industrial complex. Raises questions about extensive targeting of new elderly population and ethical dilemmas it may pose in…

Demographic Analysis and Planning for the Future. No. 13.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Efird, Cathy M.

The basic sources and types of demographic data available for future planning for the developmentally disabled are reviewed and a frame work for data organization is suggested. It is explained that future forecasts may be undertaken by the following principles: trend forecasting or extrapolation; scenario construction; models, games, and…

32 CFR 105.14 - Training requirements for DoD personnel.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...-based, real-life situations to demonstrate the entire cycle of prevention, reporting, response, and...) Explain the nature of sexual assault in the military environment using scenario-based, real-life... rape myths (See SAPR Toolkit on www.sapr.mil), facts, and trends pertaining to the military population...

32 CFR 105.14 - Training requirements for DoD personnel.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...-based, real-life situations to demonstrate the entire cycle of prevention, reporting, response, and...) Explain the nature of sexual assault in the military environment using scenario-based, real-life... rape myths (See SAPR Toolkit on www.sapr.mil), facts, and trends pertaining to the military population...

The Increasing Standard of Care for Teachers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Donald H.

1981-01-01

In light of the trend towards lawsuits against professions, especially teachers and schools, the article describes events which commonly give rise to litigation against schools and teachers, describes the duty that Canadian law imposes on teachers, explains the concept of "supra parental" duty, and details several significant lawsuits.…

Planning for the Year 2000: Women in Academe.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fallon, Janet L.

1991-01-01

Offers a brief review of some issues of importance to the integration and development of women in faculty roles, including the wage gap and the dominant model used to explain it, the job market, mentoring, financial support for graduate students, and methodological trends in research. Notes implications for the future. (SR)

Class Architecture.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crosbie, Michael J.

This compendium contains more than 40 schools that show new directions in design and the changing demands on this building type. It discusses the design challenges in new schools and how each one of the projects meets the demands of an architecture for learning. An introduction by architect Raymond Bordwell explains many of the trends in new…

A Comparison of Autism Prevalence Trends in Denmark and Western Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parner, Erik T.; Thorsen, Poul; Dixon, Glenys; de Klerk, Nicholas; Leonard, Helen; Nassar, Natasha; Bourke, Jenny; Bower, Carol; Glasson, Emma J.

2011-01-01

Prevalence statistics for autism spectrum disorders (ASD) vary widely across geographical boundaries. Some variation can be explained by diagnostic methods, case ascertainment and age at diagnosis. This study compared prevalence statistics for two distinct geographical regions, Denmark and Western Australia, both of which have had population-based…

Telecommunications and Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Associated Press Managing Editors.

This report begins by noting that newspapers are now producing cable television programs, leasing cable channels, and selling cable advertising; thus the first half of the report consists of articles examining that trend. The articles explain why and how newspapers entered the world of cable, why one newspaper dropped cable, the success of one…

Understanding Unemployment. "Understanding Economics" Series No. 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holt, Geoffrey

Devised for secondary school students, the booklet explains current employment trends, policies, and issues of Canada's labor market. The book is divided into three parts. Part I discusses the labor force in terms of supply and demand, the working age population, the labor force participation rate, total employment, unemployment, and seasonal…

Estimating Slope and Level Change in N = 1 Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solanas, Antonio; Manolov, Rumen; Onghena, Patrick

2010-01-01

The current study proposes a new procedure for separately estimating slope change and level change between two adjacent phases in single-case designs. The procedure eliminates baseline trend from the whole data series before assessing treatment effectiveness. The steps necessary to obtain the estimates are presented in detail, explained, and…

A Cooperative Classroom Investigation of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Constible, Juanita; Sandro, Luke; Lee, Richard E., Jr.

2007-01-01

Scientists have a particularly difficult time explaining warming trends in Antarctica--a region with a relatively short history of scientific observation and a highly variable climate (Clarke et al. 2007). Regardless of the mechanism of warming, however, climate change is having a dramatic impact on Antarctic ecosystems. In this article, the…

Language and the African American Child

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, Lisa J.

2011-01-01

How do children acquire African American English? How do they develop the specific language patterns of their communities? Drawing on spontaneous speech samples and data from structured elicitation tasks, this book explains the developmental trends in the children's language. It examines topics such as the development of tense/aspect marking,…

What Drives the Diffusion of Inclusionary Zoning?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meltzer, Rachel; Schuetz, Jenny

2010-01-01

Social scientists offer competing theories on what explains the policymaking process. These typically include economic rationalism, political competition or power struggles, and policy imitation of the kind that diffuses across spatially proximate neighbors. In this paper, we examine the factors that have influenced a recent local policy trend in…

Location Matters: Geographic Location and Educational Placement of Students with Developmental Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brock, Matthew E.; Schaefer, John M.

2015-01-01

Despite decades of advocacy, most students with developmental disabilities continue to spend the majority of the school day in self-contained special education classrooms. However, there is tremendous variability of educational placement across the United States. Identification of geographic trends that explain this variability could provide…

Back to the Future: Anticipating and Preparing for Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lapin, Joel D.

1992-01-01

Explains how colleges can take control of their futures by anticipating needs and demands. Describes environmental scanning, a way of identifying future concerns based on current trends and emerging issues. Provides examples of colleges that used forecasting and scanning to develop new courses and refine mission statements. (DMM)

Charting Relationships in American Popular Film. Part I.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burke, Ken

1997-01-01

Explains several diagrams showing the evolution of significant film genres in context of each other and relevant historical trends. Figures present: (1) relationships of decades of U.S. history to popular film genres; (2) hero types by genre and decade; and (3) hero types as exemplified by various genres. (AEF)

The Global Economic Prospect: New Sources of Economic Stress. Worldwatch Paper 20.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lester R.

American economic analysts will better understand current economic trends if they investigate economic problems in light of the expanding global economy. Reasons for the failure of economists to explain the simultaneous existence of rapid inflation and high unemployment include preoccupation with economic indicators, short-term forecasts, and…

The Right Start State Trends: Conditions of Babies and Their Families across the Nation (1990-1998). Child Trends/KIDS COUNT Special Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Croan, Tara; Hatcher, Juliet; Jager, Justin; Long, Melissa; O'Hare, William; Wertheimer, Richard

This Kids Count special report examines how children born in each state fared on selected measures of a "right start." This statistical portrait is based on trends in eight indicators of well-being: (1) percent of total births to teens; (2) percent of repeat teen births; (3) percent of total births to unmarried women; (4) percent of…

Bid Protests on DoD Source Selections

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-13

values, Government Accountability Office 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE ABSTRACT OF...Logistics (AT&L) closely monitors the Government Accountability Office (GAO) Bid Protest statistics for trends. These statistics combined with our trend...large protests are removed, there was still a slight trend since FY 2006 but it disappears if measured since 2009. Also, if we remove the 23 large

Selective Pressures Explain Differences in Flower Color among Gentiana lutea Populations.

PubMed

Sobral, Mar; Veiga, Tania; Domínguez, Paula; Guitián, Javier A; Guitián, Pablo; Guitián, José M

2015-01-01

Flower color variation among plant populations might reflect adaptation to local conditions such as the interacting animal community. In the northwest Iberian Peninsula, flower color of Gentiana lutea varies longitudinally among populations, ranging from orange to yellow. We explored whether flower color is locally adapted and the role of pollinators and seed predators as agents of selection by analyzing the influence of flower color on (i) pollinator visitation rate and (ii) escape from seed predation and (iii) by testing whether differences in pollinator communities correlate with flower color variation across populations. Finally, (iv) we investigated whether variation in selective pressures explains flower color variation among 12 G. lutea populations. Flower color influenced pollinator visits and differences in flower color among populations were related to variation in pollinator communities. Selective pressures on flower color vary among populations and explain part of flower color differences among populations of G. lutea. We conclude that flower color in G. lutea is locally adapted and that pollinators play a role in this adaptation.

Sexual selection and genital evolution: an overview.

PubMed

Shamloul, Rany; el-Sakka, Ahmed; Bella, Anthony J

2010-05-01

Genital morphology (especially male) among the animal kingdom is characterized by extensive differences that even members of closely related species with similar general morphology may have remarkably diverse genitalia. To present the sexual medicine specialist with a basic understanding of the current hypotheses on genital evolution with an emphasis on the sexual selection theories. A review of current literature on the theories of genital evolution. Analysis of the supporting evidence for the sexual selection theories of genital evolution. Several theories have been proposed to explain genital evolution. Currently, the sexual selection theories are being considered to present valid and solid evidence explaining genital evolution. However, other theories, including sexual conflict, are still being investigated. All theories of genital evolution have their own weaknesses and strengths. Given that many complex biological mechanisms, mostly unknown yet, are involved in the process of genital evolution, it is thus reasonable to conclude that not one theory can independently explain genital evolution. It is likely that these mechanisms may prove to have synergistic rather than exclusive effects.

Selective Pressures Explain Differences in Flower Color among Gentiana lutea Populations

PubMed Central

Domínguez, Paula; Guitián, Javier A.; Guitián, Pablo; Guitián, José M.

2015-01-01

Flower color variation among plant populations might reflect adaptation to local conditions such as the interacting animal community. In the northwest Iberian Peninsula, flower color of Gentiana lutea varies longitudinally among populations, ranging from orange to yellow. We explored whether flower color is locally adapted and the role of pollinators and seed predators as agents of selection by analyzing the influence of flower color on (i) pollinator visitation rate and (ii) escape from seed predation and (iii) by testing whether differences in pollinator communities correlate with flower color variation across populations. Finally, (iv) we investigated whether variation in selective pressures explains flower color variation among 12 G. lutea populations. Flower color influenced pollinator visits and differences in flower color among populations were related to variation in pollinator communities. Selective pressures on flower color vary among populations and explain part of flower color differences among populations of G. lutea. We conclude that flower color in G. lutea is locally adapted and that pollinators play a role in this adaptation. PMID:26172378

Genomic prediction using preselected DNA variants from a GWAS with whole-genome sequence data in Holstein-Friesian cattle.

PubMed

Veerkamp, Roel F; Bouwman, Aniek C; Schrooten, Chris; Calus, Mario P L

2016-12-01

Whole-genome sequence data is expected to capture genetic variation more completely than common genotyping panels. Our objective was to compare the proportion of variance explained and the accuracy of genomic prediction by using imputed sequence data or preselected SNPs from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) with imputed whole-genome sequence data. Phenotypes were available for 5503 Holstein-Friesian bulls. Genotypes were imputed up to whole-genome sequence (13,789,029 segregating DNA variants) by using run 4 of the 1000 bull genomes project. The program GCTA was used to perform GWAS for protein yield (PY), somatic cell score (SCS) and interval from first to last insemination (IFL). From the GWAS, subsets of variants were selected and genomic relationship matrices (GRM) were used to estimate the variance explained in 2087 validation animals and to evaluate the genomic prediction ability. Finally, two GRM were fitted together in several models to evaluate the effect of selected variants that were in competition with all the other variants. The GRM based on full sequence data explained only marginally more genetic variation than that based on common SNP panels: for PY, SCS and IFL, genomic heritability improved from 0.81 to 0.83, 0.83 to 0.87 and 0.69 to 0.72, respectively. Sequence data also helped to identify more variants linked to quantitative trait loci and resulted in clearer GWAS peaks across the genome. The proportion of total variance explained by the selected variants combined in a GRM was considerably smaller than that explained by all variants (less than 0.31 for all traits). When selected variants were used, accuracy of genomic predictions decreased and bias increased. Although 35 to 42 variants were detected that together explained 13 to 19% of the total variance (18 to 23% of the genetic variance) when fitted alone, there was no advantage in using dense sequence information for genomic prediction in the Holstein data used in our study. Detection and selection of variants within a single breed are difficult due to long-range linkage disequilibrium. Stringent selection of variants resulted in more biased genomic predictions, although this might be due to the training population being the same dataset from which the selected variants were identified.

Metacommunity composition of web-spiders in a fragmented neotropical forest: relative importance of environmental and spatial effects.

PubMed

Baldissera, Ronei; Rodrigues, Everton N L; Hartz, Sandra M

2012-01-01

The distribution of beta diversity is shaped by factors linked to environmental and spatial control. The relative importance of both processes in structuring spider metacommunities has not yet been investigated in the Atlantic Forest. The variance explained by purely environmental, spatially structured environmental, and purely spatial components was compared for a metacommunity of web spiders. The study was carried out in 16 patches of Atlantic Forest in southern Brazil. Field work was done in one landscape mosaic representing a slight gradient of urbanization. Environmental variables encompassed plot- and patch-level measurements and a climatic matrix, while principal coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNMs) acted as spatial variables. A forward selection procedure was carried out to select environmental and spatial variables influencing web-spider beta diversity. Variation partitioning was used to estimate the contribution of pure environmental and pure spatial effects and their shared influence on beta-diversity patterns, and to estimate the relative importance of selected environmental variables. Three environmental variables (bush density, land use in the surroundings of patches, and shape of patches) and two spatial variables were selected by forward selection procedures. Variation partitioning revealed that 15% of the variation of beta diversity was explained by a combination of environmental and PCNM variables. Most of this variation (12%) corresponded to pure environmental and spatially environmental structure. The data indicated that (1) spatial legacy was not important in explaining the web-spider beta diversity; (2) environmental predictors explained a significant portion of the variation in web-spider composition; (3) one-third of environmental variation was due to a spatial structure that jointly explains variation in species distributions. We were able to detect important factors related to matrix management influencing the web-spider beta-diversity patterns, which are probably linked to historical deforestation events.

Experimental evolution in silico: a custom-designed mathematical model for virulence evolution of Bacillus thuringiensis.

PubMed

Strauß, Jakob Friedrich; Crain, Philip; Schulenburg, Hinrich; Telschow, Arndt

2016-08-01

Most mathematical models on the evolution of virulence are based on epidemiological models that assume parasite transmission follows the mass action principle. In experimental evolution, however, mass action is often violated due to controlled infection protocols. This "theory-experiment mismatch" raises the question whether there is a need for new mathematical models to accommodate the particular characteristics of experimental evolution. Here, we explore the experimental evolution model system of Bacillus thuringiensis as a parasite and Caenorhabditis elegans as a host. Recent experimental studies with strict control of parasite transmission revealed that one-sided adaptation of B. thuringiensis with non-evolving hosts selects for intermediate or no virulence, sometimes coupled with parasite extinction. In contrast, host-parasite coevolution selects for high virulence and for hosts with strong resistance against B. thuringiensis. In order to explain the empirical results, we propose a new mathematical model that mimics the basic experimental set-up. The key assumptions are: (i) controlled parasite transmission (no mass action), (ii) discrete host generations, and (iii) context-dependent cost of toxin production. Our model analysis revealed the same basic trends as found in the experiments. Especially, we could show that resistant hosts select for highly virulent bacterial strains. Moreover, we found (i) that the evolved level of virulence is independent of the initial level of virulence, and (ii) that the average amount of bacteria ingested significantly affects the evolution of virulence with fewer bacteria ingested selecting for highly virulent strains. These predictions can be tested in future experiments. This study highlights the usefulness of custom-designed mathematical models in the analysis and interpretation of empirical results from experimental evolution. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.

Convergent evolution of Darwin's finches caused by introgressive hybridization and selection.

PubMed

Grant, Peter R; Grant, B Rosemary; Markert, Jeffrey A; Keller, Lukas F; Petren, K

2004-07-01

Between 1973 and 2003 mean morphological features of the cactus finch, Geospiza scandens, and the medium ground finch, G. fortis, populations on the Galápagos island of Daphne Major were subject to fluctuating directional selection. An increase in bluntness or robustness in the beak of G. scandens after 1990 can only partly be explained by selection. We use 16 microsatellite loci to test predictions of the previously proposed hypothesis that introgressive hybridization contributed to the trend, resulting in genes flowing predominantly from G. fortis to G. scandens. To identify F1 hybrids and backcrosses we use pedigrees where known, supplemented by the results of assignment tests based on 14 autosomal loci when parents were not known. We analyze changes in morphology and allelic composition in the two populations over a period of 15-20 years. With samples that included F1 hybrids and backcrosses, the G. scandens population became more similar to the G. fortis population both genetically and morphologically. Gene flow between species was estimated to be three times greater from G. fortis to G. scandens than in the opposite direction, resulting in a 20% reduction in the genetic difference between the species. Nevertheless, removing identified F1 hybrids and backcrosses from the total sample and reanalyzing the traits did not eliminate the convergence. The two species also converged in beak shape by 22.2% and in body size by 45.5%. A combination of introgressive hybridization and selection jointly provide the best explanation of convergence in morphology and genetic constitution under the changed ecological conditions following a major El Niño event in 1983. The study illustrates how species without postmating barriers to gene exchange can alternate between convergence and divergence when environmental conditions oscillate.

EDDINGTON RATIO DISTRIBUTION OF X-RAY-SELECTED BROAD-LINE AGNs AT 1.0 < z < 2.2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suh, Hyewon; Hasinger, Günther; Steinhardt, Charles

2015-12-20

We investigate the Eddington ratio distribution of X-ray-selected broad-line active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the redshift range 1.0 < z < 2.2, where the number density of AGNs peaks. Combining the optical and Subaru/Fiber Multi Object Spectrograph near-infrared spectroscopy, we estimate black hole masses for broad-line AGNs in the Chandra Deep Field South (CDF-S), Extended Chandra Deep Field South (E-CDF-S), and the XMM-Newton Lockman Hole (XMM-LH) surveys. AGNs with similar black hole masses show a broad range of AGN bolometric luminosities, which are calculated from X-ray luminosities, indicating that the accretion rate of black holes is widely distributed. We find a substantial fraction ofmore » massive black holes accreting significantly below the Eddington limit at z ≲ 2, in contrast to what is generally found for luminous AGNs at high redshift. Our analysis of observational selection biases indicates that the “AGN cosmic downsizing” phenomenon can be simply explained by the strong evolution of the comoving number density at the bright end of the AGN luminosity function, together with the corresponding selection effects. However, one might need to consider a correlation between the AGN luminosity and the accretion rate of black holes, in which luminous AGNs have higher Eddington ratios than low-luminosity AGNs, in order to understand the relatively small fraction of low-luminosity AGNs with high accretion rates in this epoch. Therefore, the observed downsizing trend could be interpreted as massive black holes with low accretion rates, which are relatively fainter than less-massive black holes with efficient accretion.« less

Complex constraints on allometry revealed by artificial selection on the wing of Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Bolstad, Geir H.; Cassara, Jason A.; Márquez, Eladio; Hansen, Thomas F.; van der Linde, Kim; Houle, David; Pélabon, Christophe

2015-01-01

Precise exponential scaling with size is a fundamental aspect of phenotypic variation. These allometric power laws are often invariant across taxa and have long been hypothesized to reflect developmental constraints. Here we test this hypothesis by investigating the evolutionary potential of an allometric scaling relationship in drosophilid wing shape that is nearly invariant across 111 species separated by at least 50 million years of evolution. In only 26 generations of artificial selection in a population of Drosophila melanogaster, we were able to drive the allometric slope to the outer range of those found among the 111 sampled species. This response was rapidly lost when selection was suspended. Only a small proportion of this reversal could be explained by breakup of linkage disequilibrium, and direct selection on wing shape is also unlikely to explain the reversal, because the more divergent wing shapes produced by selection on the allometric intercept did not revert. We hypothesize that the reversal was instead caused by internal selection arising from pleiotropic links to unknown traits. Our results also suggest that the observed selection response in the allometric slope was due to a component expressed late in larval development and that variation in earlier development did not respond to selection. Together, these results are consistent with a role for pleiotropic constraints in explaining the remarkable evolutionary stability of allometric scaling. PMID:26371319

Simulated high-latitude soil thermal dynamics during the past four decades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peng, S.; Ciais, P.; Wang, T.; Gouttevin, I.; McGuire, A.D.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; Rinke, A.; Saito, K.; Zhang, W.; Alkama, R.; Bohn, T. J.; Decharme, B.; Hajima, T.; Ji, D.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Miller, P.A.; Moore, J.C.; Smith, B.; Sueyoshi, T.

2015-01-01

Soil temperature (Ts ) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and inter-annual time scales, the variability of Ts determines the active layer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing T 5 s not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat, but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960–2000, to characterize the warming rate of Ts 10 in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of Ts trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010 ± 0.003 to 0.031 ± 0.005 ◦C yr−1 . Most models show smaller increase in Ts with increasing depth. Air temperature (Ta ) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of Ts trends, but their relative contributions differ 15 amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61 % of their differences in Ts trends, while trends of Ta only explain 5 % of the differences in Ts trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in Ts trends (0.021 ± 0.008 ◦C yr−1 , mean ± SD) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012 ± 0.001 ◦C yr−1 ), diagnosed from the range of response between different mod- 20 els, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3 m loss rate is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of Ts at 1 m depth across the models (R = −0.85, P = 0.003), but not with the initial total near-surface permafrost area (R = −0.30, P = 0.438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to T 25 s at 1 m, is estimated to be of −2.80 ± 0.67 million km2 ◦C −1 . Finally, by using two long-term LWDR datasets and relationships between trends of LWDR and Ts across models, we infer an observationconstrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9– 18 % degradation of the current permafrost area.

Social selection is a powerful explanation for prosociality.

PubMed

Nesse, Randolph M

2016-01-01

Cultural group selection helps explain human cooperation, but social selection offers a complementary, more powerful explanation. Just as sexual selection shapes extreme traits that increase matings, social selection shapes extreme traits that make individuals preferred social partners. Self-interested partner choices create strong and possibly runaway selection for prosocial traits, without requiring group selection, kin selection, or reciprocity.

Greening of the Earth and its drivers

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Zaichun; Piao, Shilong; Myneni, Ranga B.; ...

2016-04-25

Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with consequences for the functioning of the Earth system and provision of ecosystem services 1, 2. Yet how global vegetation is responding to the changing environment is not well established. Here we use three long-term satellite leaf area index (LAI) records and ten global ecosystem models to investigate four key drivers of LAI trends during 1982 2009. We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAImore » (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO 2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%). CO 2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau. LCC contributed most to the regional greening observed in southeast China and the eastern United States. In conclusion, the regional effects of unexplained factors suggest that the next generation of ecosystem models will need to explore the impacts of forest demography, differences in regional management intensities for cropland and pastures, and other emerging productivity constraints such as phosphorus availability.« less

Greening of the Earth and its drivers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Zaichun; Piao, Shilong; Myneni, Ranga B.

Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with consequences for the functioning of the Earth system and provision of ecosystem services 1, 2. Yet how global vegetation is responding to the changing environment is not well established. Here we use three long-term satellite leaf area index (LAI) records and ten global ecosystem models to investigate four key drivers of LAI trends during 1982 2009. We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAImore » (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO 2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%). CO 2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau. LCC contributed most to the regional greening observed in southeast China and the eastern United States. In conclusion, the regional effects of unexplained factors suggest that the next generation of ecosystem models will need to explore the impacts of forest demography, differences in regional management intensities for cropland and pastures, and other emerging productivity constraints such as phosphorus availability.« less

Cause-specific sickness absence trends by occupational class and industrial sector in the context of recent labour market changes: a Finnish panel data study.

PubMed

Leinonen, Taina; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Husgafvel-Pursiainen, Kirsti; Solovieva, Svetlana

2018-04-07

We aimed to provide previously unestablished information on population-based differences in cause-specific sickness absence trends between occupational classes and further between four large industrial sectors within the different occupational classes while controlling for other socioeconomic factors and employment patterns. We focused on the period 2005-2013, during which the labour market underwent large economic and structural changes in many countries. Register-based panel data study. Large representative datasets on Finnish wage earners aged 25-59 years. Annual risk of sickness absence (>10 working days) based on repeated logistic regression. Between 2005 and 2013, the proportion of employees with sickness absence decreased. Occupational class differences in sickness absence trends varied by disease group. Overall, the decrease in absences was smallest among lower non-manual employees. Sickness absence levels were highest in the health and social work sector and in the manufacturing sector within the non-manual and manual classes, respectively. Absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily during the peak of the economic recession in 2009, particularly in the manufacturing sector within the manual class. The decrease in absences due to musculoskeletal diseases was smallest in the trade sector within the lower occupational classes. Overall, education, income and employment patterns partly explained the differences in the absence levels, but not in the trends. We found a complex interplay between the associations of occupational class and industrial sector with sickness absence trends. During the economic recession, absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily in a segment of wage earners who were known to have been hit hard by the recession. However, the trend differences were not explained by the measured structural changes in the characteristics of the study population. Both occupational class and industrial sector should be taken into account when tackling problems of work disability. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Telework Is Coming...Ready or Not!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meade, Richard D.

1995-01-01

The potential of advancing information and telecommunications technology to transform the workplace in higher education is examined. Demographic, social, and economic trends contributing to this trend and its advantages and disadvantages are also discussed. Suggestions are made for managing the transition to telework, including selection of…

The Courts and You.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Truby, Roy

This paper selectively reviews education law since 1954 and forecasts trends and major issues for the 1980's. Two trends are foreseen: increasing conflict between social goals and individual rights, and greater emphasis on "housekeeping" issues. Five upcoming issues are then examined with reference to recent litigation and legislation…

Estimating average annual per cent change in trend analysis

PubMed Central

Clegg, Limin X; Hankey, Benjamin F; Tiwari, Ram; Feuer, Eric J; Edwards, Brenda K

2009-01-01

Trends in incidence or mortality rates over a specified time interval are usually described by the conventional annual per cent change (cAPC), under the assumption of a constant rate of change. When this assumption does not hold over the entire time interval, the trend may be characterized using the annual per cent changes from segmented analysis (sAPCs). This approach assumes that the change in rates is constant over each time partition defined by the transition points, but varies among different time partitions. Different groups (e.g. racial subgroups), however, may have different transition points and thus different time partitions over which they have constant rates of change, making comparison of sAPCs problematic across groups over a common time interval of interest (e.g. the past 10 years). We propose a new measure, the average annual per cent change (AAPC), which uses sAPCs to summarize and compare trends for a specific time period. The advantage of the proposed AAPC is that it takes into account the trend transitions, whereas cAPC does not and can lead to erroneous conclusions. In addition, when the trend is constant over the entire time interval of interest, the AAPC has the advantage of reducing to both cAPC and sAPC. Moreover, because the estimated AAPC is based on the segmented analysis over the entire data series, any selected subinterval within a single time partition will yield the same AAPC estimate—that is it will be equal to the estimated sAPC for that time partition. The cAPC, however, is re-estimated using data only from that selected subinterval; thus, its estimate may be sensitive to the subinterval selected. The AAPC estimation has been incorporated into the segmented regression (free) software Joinpoint, which is used by many registries throughout the world for characterizing trends in cancer rates. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:19856324

Brazilian and Mexican experiences in the study of incipient domestication

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Studies of domestication enables a better understanding of human cultures, landscape changes according to peoples’ purposes, and evolutionary consequences of human actions on biodiversity. This review aimed at discussing concepts, hypotheses, and current trends in studies of domestication of plants, using examples of cases studied in regions of Mesoamerica and Brazil. We analyzed trends of ethnobiological studies contributing to document processes of domestication and to establish criteria for biodiversity conservation based on traditional ecological knowledge. Methods Based on reviewing our own and other authors’ studies we analyzed management patterns and evolutionary trends associated to domestication occurring at plant populations and landscape levels. Particularly, we systematized information documenting: ethnobotanical aspects about plant management and artificial selection mechanisms, morphological consequences of plant management, population genetics of wild and managed plant populations, trends of change in reproduction systems of plants associated to management, and other ecological and physiological aspects influenced by management and domestication. Results Based on the analysis of study cases of 20 native species of herbs, shrubs and trees we identified similar criteria of artificial selection in different cultural contexts of Mexico and Brazil. Similar evolutionary trends were also identified in morphology (selection in favor of gigantism of useful and correlated parts); organoleptic characteristics such as taste, toxicity, color, texture; reproductive biology, mainly breeding system, phenological changes, and population genetics aspects, maintenance or increasing of genetic diversity in managed populations, high gene flow with wild relatives and low structure maintained by artificial selection. Our review is a first attempt to unify research methods for analyzing a high diversity of processes. Further research should emphasize deeper analyses of contrasting and diverse cultural and ecological contexts for a better understanding of evolution under incipient processes of domestication. Conclusion Higher research effort is particularly required in Brazil, where studies on this topic are scarcer than in Mexico but where diversity of human cultures managing their also high plant resources diversity offer high potential for documenting the diversity of mechanisms of artificial selection and evolutionary trends. Comparisons and evaluations of incipient domestication in the regions studied as well as the Andean area would significantly contribute to understanding origins and diffusion of the experience of managing and domesticating plants. PMID:24694009

Trends in Surface Temperature from AIRS.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruzmaikin, A.; Aumann, H. H.

2014-12-01

To address possible causes of the current hiatus in the Earth's global temperature we investigate the trends and variability in the surface temperature using retrievals obtained from the measurements by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and its companion instrument, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), onboard of Aqua spacecraft in 2002-2014. The data used are L3 monthly means on a 1x1degree spatial grid. We separate the land and ocean temperatures, as well as temperatures in Artic, Antarctic and desert regions. We find a monotonic positive trend for the land temperature but not for the ocean temperature. The difference in the regional trends can help to explain why the global surface temperature remains almost unchanged but the frequency of occurrence of the extreme events increases under rising anthropogenic forcing. The results are compared with the model studies. This work was supported by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Craniofacial imaging informatics and technology development.

PubMed

Vannier, M W

2003-01-01

'Craniofacial imaging informatics' refers to image and related scientific data from the dentomaxillofacial complex, and application of 'informatics techniques' (derived from disciplines such as applied mathematics, computer science and statistics) to understand and organize the information associated with the data. Major trends in information technology determine the progress made in craniofacial imaging and informatics. These trends include industry consolidation, disruptive technologies, Moore's law, electronic atlases and on-line databases. Each of these trends is explained and documented, relative to their influence on craniofacial imaging. Craniofacial imaging is influenced by major trends that affect all medical imaging and related informatics applications. The introduction of cone beam craniofacial computed tomography scanners is an example of a disruptive technology entering the field. An important opportunity lies in the integration of biologic knowledge repositories with craniofacial images. The progress of craniofacial imaging will continue subject to limitations imposed by the underlying technologies, especially imaging informatics. Disruptive technologies will play a major role in the evolution of this field.

Factors affecting nutrient trends in major rivers of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sprague, Lori A.; Langland, M.J.; Yochum, S.E.; Edwards, R.E.; Blomquist, J.D.; Phillips, S.W.; Shenk, G.W.; Preston, S.D.

2000-01-01

Trends in nutrient loads and flow-adjusted concentrations in the major rivers entering Chesapeake Bay were computed on the basis of water-quality data collected between 1985 and 1998 at 29 monitoring stations in the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, York, Patuxent, and Choptank River Basins. Two computer models?the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model (WSM) and the U.S. Geological Survey?s 'Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes' (SPARROW) Model?were used to help explain the major factors affecting the trends. Results from WSM simulations provided information on temporal changes in contributions from major nutrient sources, and results from SPARROW model simulations provided spatial detail on the distribution of nutrient yields in these basins. Additional data on nutrient sources, basin characteristics, implementation of management practices, and ground-water inputs to surface water were analyzed to help explain the trends. The major factors affecting the trends were changes in nutrient sources and natural variations in streamflow. The dominant source of nitrogen and phosphorus from 1985 to 1998 in six of the seven tributary basins to Chesapeake Bay was determined to be agriculture. Because of the predominance of agricultural inputs, changes in agricultural nutrient sources such as manure and fertilizer, combined with decreases in agricultural acreage and implementation of best management practices (BMPs), had the greatest impact on the trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations. Urban acreage and population, however, were noted to be increasing throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, and as a result, delivered loads of nutrients from urban areas increased during the study period. Overall, agricultural nutrient management, in combination with load decreases from point sources due to facility upgrades and the phosphate detergent ban, led to downward trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations atmany of the monitoring stations in the watershed. The loads of nutrients, however, were not reduced significantly at most of the monitoring stations. This is due primarily to higher streamflow in the latter years of the monitoring period, which led to higher loading in those years.Results of this study indicate a need for more detailed information on BMP effectiveness under a full range of hydrologic conditions and in different areas of the watershed; an internally consistent fertilizer data set; greater consideration of the effects of watershed processes on nutrient transport; a refinement of current modeling efforts; and an expansion of the non-tidal monitoring network in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Of mental models, assumptions and heuristics: The case of acids and acid strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClary, Lakeisha Michelle

This study explored what cognitive resources (i.e., units of knowledge necessary to learn) first-semester organic chemistry students used to make decisions about acid strength and how those resources guided the prediction, explanation and justification of trends in acid strength. We were specifically interested in the identifying and characterizing the mental models, assumptions and heuristics that students relied upon to make their decisions, in most cases under time constraints. The views about acids and acid strength were investigated for twenty undergraduate students. Data sources for this study included written responses and individual interviews. The data was analyzed using a qualitative methodology to answer five research questions. Data analysis regarding these research questions was based on existing theoretical frameworks: problem representation (Chi, Feltovich & Glaser, 1981), mental models (Johnson-Laird, 1983); intuitive assumptions (Talanquer, 2006), and heuristics (Evans, 2008). These frameworks were combined to develop the framework from which our data were analyzed. Results indicated that first-semester organic chemistry students' use of cognitive resources was complex and dependent on their understanding of the behavior of acids. Expressed mental models were generated using prior knowledge and assumptions about acids and acid strength; these models were then employed to make decisions. Explicit and implicit features of the compounds in each task mediated participants' attention, which triggered the use of a very limited number of heuristics, or shortcut reasoning strategies. Many students, however, were able to apply more effortful analytic reasoning, though correct trends were predicted infrequently. Most students continued to use their mental models, assumptions and heuristics to explain a given trend in acid strength and to justify their predicted trends, but the tasks influenced a few students to shift from one model to another model. An emergent finding from this project was that the problem representation greatly influenced students' ability to make correct predictions in acid strength. Many students, however, were able to apply more effortful analytic reasoning, though correct trends were predicted infrequently. Most students continued to use their mental models, assumptions and heuristics to explain a given trend in acid strength and to justify their predicted trends, but the tasks influenced a few students to shift from one model to another model. An emergent finding from this project was that the problem representation greatly influenced students' ability to make correct predictions in acid strength.

Relationship Between Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Heat Balance Trends in the Tropical Oceans: The Crucial Role of Surface Wind Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.; Sun, X.

2016-12-01

Multiple atmospheric and ocean reanalyses are analyzed for 1980-2015 to understand annual-mean adjustments of the surface heat balance over the tropical oceans as the climate warms. Linear trends are examined, with statistical significance evaluated. While surface heat budgets and sea surface temperatures are mutually adjusted fields, insights into the physical processes of this adjustment and the implications for temperature trends can be identified. Two second-generation reanalyses, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, agree well on the distributions and magnitudes of trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere to the ocean. Trends in the net longwave and sensible heat fluxes are generally small, and trends in solar radiation absorbed are only influential regionally and vary among the reanalyses. The largest contribution is from latent heat flux trends. Contributions to these trends associated with surface temperature (thermal-driving), 10-m wind (dynamical-driving) and specific humidity (hydrological-driving) trends are estimated. The dynamically-driven latent heat flux dominates and explains much of the regionality of the multi-decadal heat flux trends. However, trends in the net surface heat flux alone do not match the observed SSTs trends well, indicating that the redistribution of heat within the ocean mixed layer is also important. Ocean mixed layer heat budgets in various ocean reanalyses are examined to understand this redistribution, and we again identify a crucial role for changes in the surface wind. Acceleration of the tropical easterlies is associated with strengthening of the equatorial undercurrents in both the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. In the Pacific, where the EUC is also shoaling, the result is enhanced warm-water advection into the central Pacific. This advective warming is superimposed on cooling due to enhanced evaporation and equatorial upwelling, which are also associated with wind trends, to determine the observed pattern of SST trends.

It Takes Three: Selection, Influence, and De-Selection Processes of Depression in Adolescent Friendship Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Zalk, Maarten Herman Walter; Kerr, Margaret; Branje, Susan J. T.; Stattin, Hakan; Meeus, Wim H. J.

2010-01-01

The authors of this study tested a selection-influence-de-selection model of depression. This model explains friendship influence processes (i.e., friends' depressive symptoms increase adolescents' depressive symptoms) while controlling for two processes: friendship selection (i.e., selection of friends with similar levels of depressive symptoms)…

Psychosocial correlates of healthful diets: baseline results from the Working Well Study.

PubMed

Kristal, A R; Patterson, R E; Glanz, K; Heimendinger, J; Hebert, J R; Feng, Z; Probart, C

1995-05-01

This report examines psychosocial factors related to selection of healthful diets. Understanding why people select healthful diets can lead to rational design and evaluation of nutrition intervention programs. Data are from 16,287 respondents to the baseline survey for the Working Well Trial, a randomized, controlled trial of worksite-based health promotion. The psychosocial constructs we measured were predisposing factors (beliefs, perceived benefits, and motivation; 5 items, Cronbach's alpha = 0.65) and enabling factors (barriers, norms, and social support; 6 items, Cronbach's alpha = 0.57). The healthful diet outcomes were intakes of fat, fiber, and servings of fruits and vegetables (from a food frequency questionnaire) and intention and self-efficacy to decrease fat and increase fruits and vegetables. Based on a 5-point scale (1 = low to 5 = high), the mean predisposing factor scale score was much higher than the enabling factor scale score (3.77 vs 2.50, P < 0.001). Comparing respondents in the highest category of the predisposing scale to those in the lowest, mean percentage of energy from fat was 22.4% lower (-9 percentage points), fiber was 85.2% higher (+4.6 g/1,000 kcal), and fruits and vegetables were 100% higher (+1.6 servings/day) (all trends, P < 0.001). Associations were similar, but much weaker, for the enabling scale. Multiple regression models, which included covariates related to diet and the predisposing and enabling scales, explained a total of between 13 and 26% of the variance in diet and intention to change diet. After control for covariates, the predisposing scale remained a significant and strong predictor of diet and intention to change diet but the enabling scale explained small and nonsignificant amounts of variance. Predisposing factors are strong predictors of current diet and intention to change diet. Final results from the Working Well Trial will provide more information on whether enabling factors can be enhanced by intervention and whether these changes result in healthier eating patterns.

Comparison of Plains Volcanism in the Tempe Terra Region of Mars to the Eastern Snake River Plains, Idaho with Implications for Geochemical Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weren, S. L.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Hughes, S. S.; Gregg, T. K. P.

2004-01-01

The Eastern Snake River Plains (ESRP) in Idaho have long been considered a terrestrial analog for the plains volcanism like that evident in Syria Planum and Tempe Terra, Mars. Both the ESRP and Tempe Terra are sediment-blanketed volcanic fields in areas with significant extensional faulting. Similar volcanic features can be observed throughout both study areas using field analysis and DEMs of the ESRP and the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data from Mars. These features include flow fields, low shields, shields with steep summits, and fissure eruptions. A few other volcanic features, such as cinder cones, which suggest variable compositions, volatile interactions, and multiple volcanic events can be seen in both areas. The eruptions in both the ESRP and Tempe Terra generally originate from the fissures creating elongate, multi-vent shields as well as isolated or aligned single vent shields. Many of these show evidence of radial flow patterns from summit craters as well as lava tube fed flows. The volcanoes of Tempe Terra display some of the global latitudinal parameter trends of small volcanoes on Mars. Some of these trends may be explained by the variation of volatile content and compositional variation across Mars. However, within Tempe Terra no significant local latitudinal trends can be seen in edifice attributes and not all variations are explained by global trends. This study builds upon previous studies of the Tempe Terra region and the ESRP in order to develop a more detailed representation of features and topographic data. Using these data we attempt to help constrain the composition and eruptive style of the Tempe Terra volcanoes by correlating them with the similar and quantified ESRP variations.

Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, GRACE, 3 In-situ Measurements, and a Non-Boussinesq OGCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Y. Tony; Colberg, Frank

2011-01-01

Observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom water warming, but they are too spatially and temporally sporadic to quantify the deep ocean contribution to the present-day sea level rise (SLR). In this study, altimetry sea surface height (SSH), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean mass, and in situ upper ocean (0-700 m) steric height have been assessed for their seasonal variability and trend maps. It is shown that neither the global mean nor the regional trends of altimetry SLR can be explained by the upper ocean steric height plus the GRACE ocean mass. A non-Boussinesq ocean general circulation model (OGCM), allowing the sea level to rise as a direct response to the heat added into the ocean, is then used to diagnose the deep ocean steric height. Constrained by sea surface temperature data and the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements, the model reproduces the observed upper ocean heat content well. Combining the modeled deep ocean steric height with observational upper ocean data gives the full depth steric height. Adding a GRACE-estimated mass trend, the data-model combination explains not only the altimetry global mean SLR but also its regional trends fairly well. The deep ocean warming is mostly prevalent in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting a strong relation to the oceanic circulation and dynamics. Its comparison with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean SLR or one-third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 +/- 0.6 mm/yr over 1993-2008.

17 CFR 229.301 - (Item 301) Selected financial data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... significant trends in the registrant's financial condition and results of operations. 2. Subject to appropriate variation to conform to the nature of the registrant's business, the following items shall be... of and would highlight other trends in their financial condition and results of operations. Briefly...

Dependence of the Broad Absorption Line Quasar Fraction on Radio Luminosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shankar, Francesco; Dai, Xinyu; Sivakoff, Gregory R.

2008-11-01

We find that the fraction of classical broad absorption line quasars (BALQSOs) among the FIRST radio sources in the Sloan Data Release 3, is 20.5+ 7.3-5.9% at the faintest radio powers detected (L1.4 GHz ~ 1032 erg s-1), and rapidly drops to lesssim8% at L1.4 GHz ~ 3 × 1033 erg s-1. Similarly, adopting the broader absorption index (AI) definition of Trump et al., we find the fraction of radio BALQSOs to be 44+ 8.1-7.8%, reducing to 23.1+ 7.3-6.1% at high luminosities. While the high fraction at low radio power is consistent with the recent near-IR estimates by Dai et al., the lower fraction at high radio powers is intriguing and confirms previous claims based on smaller samples. The trend is independent of the redshift range, the optical and radio flux selection limits, or the exact definition of a radio match. We also find that at fixed optical magnitude, the highest bins of radio luminosity are preferentially populated by non-BALQSOs, consistent with the overall trend. We do find, however, that those quasars identified as AI-BALQSOs but not under the classical definition do not show a significant drop in their fraction as a function of radio power, further supporting independent claims that these sources, characterized by lower equivalent width, may represent an independent class from the classical BALQSOs. We find the balnicity index, a measure of the absorption trough in BALQSOs, and the mean maximum wind velocity to be roughly constant at all radio powers. We discuss several plausible physical models which may explain the observed fast drop in the fraction of the classical BALQSOs with increasing radio power, although none is entirely satisfactory. A strictly evolutionary model for the BALQSO and radio emission phases requires a strong fine-tuning to work, while a simple geometric model, although still not capable of explaining polar BALQSOs and the paucity of FRII BALQSOs, is statistically successful in matching the data if part of the apparent radio luminosity function is due to beamed, non-BALQSOs.

Centennial changes in North Pacific anoxia linked to tropical trade winds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deutsch, Curtis; Berelson, William; Thunell, Robert; Weber, Thomas; Tems, Caitlin; McManus, James; Crusius, John; Ito, Taka; Baumgartner, Timothy; Ferreira, Vicente; Mey, Jacob; van Geen, Alexander

2014-01-01

Climate warming is expected to reduce oxygen (O2) supply to the ocean and expand its oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We reconstructed variations in the extent of North Pacific anoxia since 1850 using a geochemical proxy for denitrification (δ15N) from multiple sediment cores. Increasing δ15N since ~1990 records an expansion of anoxia, consistent with observed O2 trends. However, this was preceded by a longer declining δ15N trend that implies that the anoxic zone was shrinking for most of the 20th century. Both periods can be explained by changes in winds over the tropical Pacific that drive upwelling, biological productivity, and O2 demand within the OMZ. If equatorial Pacific winds resume their predicted weakening trend, the ocean’s largest anoxic zone will contract despite a global O2 decline.

Secular trends in growth.

PubMed

Fudvoye, Julie; Parent, Anne-Simone

2017-06-01

Human adult height has been increasing world-wide for a century and a half. The rate of increase depends on time and place of measurement. Final height appears to have reached a plateau in Northern European countries but it is still increasing in southern European countries as well as Japan. While mean birth length has not changed recently in industrialized countries, the secular trend finally observed in adult height mostly originates during the first 2 years of life. Secular trend in growth is a marker of public health and provides insights into the interaction between growth and environment. It has been shown to be affected by income, social status, infections and nutrition. While genetic factors cannot explain such rapid changes in average population height, epigenetic factors could be the link between growth and environment. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Evaluation of trends in wheat yield models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferguson, M. C.

1982-01-01

Trend terms in models for wheat yield in the U.S. Great Plains for the years 1932 to 1976 are evaluated. The subset of meteorological variables yielding the largest adjusted R(2) is selected using the method of leaps and bounds. Latent root regression is used to eliminate multicollinearities, and generalized ridge regression is used to introduce bias to provide stability in the data matrix. The regression model used provides for two trends in each of two models: a dependent model in which the trend line is piece-wise continuous, and an independent model in which the trend line is discontinuous at the year of the slope change. It was found that the trend lines best describing the wheat yields consisted of combinations of increasing, decreasing, and constant trend: four combinations for the dependent model and seven for the independent model.

Trend differences in men and women in rural and urban U.S. settings.

PubMed

Cepeda-Benito, A; Doogan, N J; Redner, R; Roberts, M E; Kurti, A N; Villanti, A C; Lopez, A A; Quisenberry, A J; Stanton, C A; Gaalema, D E; Keith, D R; Parker, M A; Higgins, S T

2018-04-05

Smoking prevalence is declining at a slower rate in rural than urban settings in the United States (U.S.), and known predictors of smoking do not readily account for this trend difference. Given that socioeconomic and psychosocial determinants of health disparities accumulate in rural settings and that life-course disadvantages are often greater in women than men, we examined whether smoking trends are different for rural and urban men and women. We used yearly cross-sectional data (n = 303,311) from the U.S. National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) from 2007 through 2014 to compare cigarette smoking trends in men and women across rural and urban areas. Current smoking status was modelled using logistic regression controlling for confounding risk factors. Regression derived graphs predicting unadjusted prevalence estimates and 95% confidence bands revealed that whereas the smoking trends of rural men, urban men, and urban women significantly declined from 2007 to 2014, the trend for rural women was flat. Controlling for demographic, socioeconomic and psychosocial predictors of smoking did not explain rural women's significantly different trend from those of the other three groups. Rural women lag behind rural men, urban men and urban women in decreasing smoking, a health disparity finding that supports the need for tobacco control and regulatory policies and interventions that are more effective in reducing smoking among rural women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Model for Managing Data Assurance in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamblin, David J.; Phoenix, David A.

2012-01-01

There are increasing demands for higher levels of data assurance in higher education. This paper explores some of the drivers for this trend, and then explains what stakeholders mean by the concept of data assurance, since this has not been well defined previously. The paper captures insights from existing literature, stakeholders, auditors, and…

Mathematics Achievement in High- and Low-Achieving Secondary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mohammadpour, Ebrahim; Shekarchizadeh, Ahmadreza

2015-01-01

This paper identifies the amount of variance in mathematics achievement in high- and low-achieving schools that can be explained by school-level factors, while controlling for student-level factors. The data were obtained from 2679 Iranian eighth graders who participated in the 2007 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study. Of the…

Computer-Based Instruction: Roots, Origins, Applications, Benefits, Features, Systems, Trends and Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hofstetter, Fred T.

Dealing exclusively with instructional computing, this paper describes how computers are delivering instruction in a wide variety of subjects to students of all ages and explains why computer-based education is currently having a profound impact on education. After a discussion of roots and origins, computer applications are described for…

Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century; Regional Futures and U.S. Strategy

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-01-01

with an overview of global trends in the strategic environment. Each of the regional assessments-covering Asia, the greater Middle East, and Europe and...5 Chapter Two OVERVIEW OF THE FUTURE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT ........................... 7 Introduction .................................. 7...43 Overview ..................................... 45 Explaining the Rise of Asia ...................... 46 Surveying

Factors Influencing Trends in pH in the Wootton et al. (2008) Dataset

EPA Science Inventory

In this report, the dataset collected by Wootton at Tatoosh Island during 2000 through 2010 is analyzed to assess whether the apparent rapid decline in the pH data can be explained by other more localized processes. Specifically, we focused on the role of river discharge on pH l...

Applying ecological insights to increase productivity in tropical plantations

Treesearch

Dan Binkley; Jean-Paul Laclau; Jose Luiz Stape; Michael G. Ryan

2010-01-01

In the 19th and 20th Centuries, forest productivity was examined largely as a retrospective exercise: growth of forests was tracked over time, and these historical trends were projected empirically into the future (Puettmann et al., 2008). Silviculturists explained growth of trees and stands in terms of unquantifiable "growing space,"...

Recruiting Minorities: What Explains Recent Trends in the Army and Navy?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asch, Beth J.; Heaton, Paul; Savych, Bogdan

2009-01-01

Since 2000, black representation among high-quality recruits in the Army has decreased, while Hispanic representation has increased; in the Navy, black representation has remained stable and Hispanic representation has increased. (Recruits are considered to be high-quality if they have graduated high school and score above average on the Armed…

Supporting Clear and Concise Mathematics Language: Say This, Not That

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Elizabeth M.; Powell, Sarah R.; Stevens, Elizabeth A.

2016-01-01

One influence contributing to this trend may be the imprecise use of mathematics language. Educators may not interpret mathematics as a second (or third) language for children, when, in fact, all children are mathematical-language learners (Barrow, 2014). The numerals, symbols, and terms that explain mathematics concepts and procedures are…

"Drunkorexia": Exploring the Who and Why of a Disturbing Trend in College Students' Eating and Drinking Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eisenberg, Miriam H.; Fitz, Caroline C.

2014-01-01

Objective: "Drunkorexia," limiting food intake before alcohol consumption, increases college students' risk for negative alcohol-related health consequences. The current study tested whether (1) women engage in drunkorexia more frequently than men; (2) weight control motivations explain sex differences in drunkorexia; and (3) among…

Urban Geography: Topics in Geography, Number 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Council for Geographic Education.

The scope, objectives, and some of the findings of urban geography are discussed in this paper. Curriculum development in urban geography at the high-school level is also briefly described. The first of six articles, "Aspects and Trends of Urban Geography," explains the urban geographer's interest in internal city structure, interaction of static…

Ohio Occupational Research and Development Coordinating Unit. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohio State Dept. of Education, Columbus.

This final report explains the purpose of the Ohio Occupational Research and Development Coordinating Unit and its activities and accomplishments from its inception July 1, 1965, to August 31, 1969. The three specific objectives of the Ohio Unit are: (1) to gather data concerning employment, emerging occupational trends and future job projections,…

Setting the Standard: XML on Campus.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rawlins, Mike

2001-01-01

Explains what XML (Extensible Markup Language) is; where to find it in a few years (everywhere from Web pages, to database management systems, to common campus applications); issues that will make XML somewhat of an experimental strategy in the near term; and the importance of decision-makers being abreast of XML trends in standards, tools…

Marketing Basics for Interpretive Sites and Attractions: It's All about the Visitors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Veverka, John

2001-01-01

Professionals spend thousands in design, production, and distribution of marketing brochures for tourist information centers, yet have no proof that the brochures work. Explains how to market heritage attractions by better understanding the intended visitors. Includes questions for identifying markets, ways to generate new market groups, trends in…

Resisting Charters: A Comparative Policy Development Analysis of Washington and Kentucky, 2002-2012

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Joseph B.

2014-01-01

Over the past two decades, most states have adopted laws enabling charter schools, as charter advocates successfully presented charters as the solution to core problems in urban public education. Yet some states with large urban centers, notably Washington and Kentucky, resisted this seemingly inexorable trend for years. What explains their…

Sincere, Deceitful, and Ironic Communicative Acts and the Role of the Theory of Mind in Childhood

PubMed Central

Bosco, Francesca M.; Gabbatore, Ilaria

2017-01-01

The aim of the study is to investigate the relationship among age, first- and second-order Theory of Mind and the increasing ability of children to understand and produce different kinds of communicative acts – sincere, ironic, and deceitful communicative acts – expressed through linguistic and extralinguistic expressive means. To communicate means to modify an interlocutor’s mental states (Grice, 1989), and pragmatics studies the inferential processes that are necessary to fill the gap, which often exists in human communication, between the literal meaning of a speaker’s utterance and what the speaker intends to communicate to the interlocutor. We administered brief video-clip stories showing different kinds of pragmatic phenomena – sincere, ironic, and deceitful communicative acts - and first- and second-order ToM tasks, to 120 children, ranging in age from 3 to 8 years. The results showed the existence of a trend of difficulty in children’s ability to deal with both linguistic and extralinguistic pragmatic tasks, from the simplest to the most difficult: sincere, deceitful, and ironic communicative acts. A hierarchical regression analysis indicated that age plays a significant role in explaining children’s performance on each pragmatic task. Furthermore, the hierarchical regression analysis revealed that first-order ToM has a causal role in explaining children’s performance in handling sincere and deceitful speech acts, but not irony. We did not detect any specific role for second-order ToM. Finally, ToM only partially explains the observed increasing trend of difficulty in children’s pragmatic performance: the variance in pragmatic performance explained by ToM increases between sincere and deceitful communicative acts, but not between deceit and irony. The role of inferential ability in explaining the improvement in children’s performance across the pragmatic tasks investigated is discussed. PMID:28194120

Anticlockwise or Clockwise? A Dynamic Perception-Action-Laterality Model for Directionality Bias in Visuospatial Functioning

PubMed Central

Karim, A.K.M. Rezaul; Proulx, Michael J.; Likova, Lora T.

2016-01-01

Reviewing the relevant literature in visual psychophysics and visual neuroscience we propose a three-stage model of directionality bias in visuospatial functioning. We call this model the ‘Perception-Action-Laterality’ (PAL) hypothesis. We analyzed the research findings for a wide range of visuospatial tasks, showing that there are two major directionality trends: clockwise versus anticlockwise. It appears these preferences are combinatorial, such that a majority of people fall in the first category demonstrating a preference for stimuli/objects arranged from left-to-right rather than from right-to-left, while people in the second category show an opposite trend. These perceptual biases can guide sensorimotor integration and action, creating two corresponding turner groups in the population. In support of PAL, we propose another model explaining the origins of the biases– how the neurogenetic factors and the cultural factors interact in a biased competition framework to determine the direction and extent of biases. This dynamic model can explain not only the two major categories of biases, but also the unbiased, unreliably biased or mildly biased cases in visuosptial functioning. PMID:27350096

Topics in Chemical Instrumentation: An Introduction to Supercritical Fluid Chromatography--Part 2. Applications and Future Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmieri, Margo D.

1989-01-01

Discussed are selected application and future trends in supercritical fluid chromatography (SFC). The greatest application for SFC involves those analytes that are difficult to separate using GC or LC methods. Optimum conditions for SFC are examined. Provided are several example chromatograms. (MVL)

Medical Surveillance Monthly Report MSMR). Volume 5, Number 3, April 1999

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-04-01

Selected sentinel reportable events, 2 year trends ................... 5 Reportable sexually transmitted diseases , March 1999 ........... 6...Reportable sexually transmitted diseases , 2 year trends ......... 7 Supplement #1: Hospitalization summary, 1998...Monthly Report is prepared by the Army Medical Surveillance Activity , Directorate of Epidemiology and Disease Surveillance, United States Army Center

Community Economic Vitality: Major Trends and Selected Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Summers, Gene F.; And Others

Intended for rural development practitioners and extension educators, this publication examines trends and issues in the revitalization of rural America. Chapter 1 defines community economic vitality as the capacity to ensure a flow of jobs and income over time; focuses attention on the realities of competition between communities and the…

Recent Trends in Developmental Research: A Quantitative Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howe, Nina; Cheyne, Allan

An assessment of recent trends in developmental research examined all articles published in the periodical "Child Development" from 1967-1983. Of the articles that were included in the "Child Development Abstracts and Bibliography" in the same period, 200 articles from each year of the period were randomly selected for…

Trends & Issues in Library & Information Science 1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eisenberg, Michael B.; And Others

This synthesis paper provides a state-of-the-art analysis of the field of library and information science based on the results of a content analysis of its literature, including selected journals, conference proceedings, dissertations, and ERIC input. The 14 trends and issues identified by the analysis include developments in technology,…

Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Parmesan, Camille

2012-01-01

Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with warming trends over the past 20–50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to warming, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/winter chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to fall/winter and spring warming are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species’ response to fall/winter vs. spring warming; and (iii) inclusion of fall/winter temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring warming only. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend toward phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently nonresponding species. Our results illuminate an understudied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues to improve predictability of community level responses to anthropogenic climate change. PMID:22615406

The Impact of Trends in the Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation on Mediterranean Surface Turbulent Heat Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanski, Joy; Hameed, Sultan

2015-01-01

Interannual variations of latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Mediterranean for the boreal winter season (DJF) show positive trends during 1958-2011. Comparison of correlations between the heat fluxes and the intensity and location of the Azores High (AH), and the NAO and East Atlantic-West Russia (EAWR) teleconnections, along with analysis of composites of surface temperature, humidity and wind fields for different teleconnection states, demonstrates that variations of the AH are found to explain the heat flux changes more successfully than the NAO and the EAWR. Trends in sea level pressure and longitude of the Azores High during DJF show a strengthening, and an eastward shift. DJF Azores High pressure and longitude are shown to co-vary such that variability of the Azores High occurs along an axis defined by lower pressure and westward location at one extreme, and higher pressure and eastward location at the other extreme. The shift of the Azores High from predominance of the low/west state to the high/east state induces trends in Mediterranean Sea surface winds, temperature and moisture. These, combined with sea surface warming trends, produce trends in wintertime Mediterranean Sea sensible and latent heat fluxes.

Catch, bycatch and discards of the Galapagos Marine Reserve small-scale handline fishery.

PubMed

Zimmerhackel, Johanna S; Schuhbauer, Anna C; Usseglio, Paolo; Heel, Lena C; Salinas-de-León, Pelayo

2015-01-01

Fisheries bycatch is a significant marine conservation issue as valuable fish are wasted and protected species harmed with potential negative ecological and socio-economic consequences. Even though there are indications that the small-scale handline fishery of the Galapagos Marine Reserve has a low selectivity, information on its bycatch has never been published. We used onboard monitoring and interview data to assess the bycatch of the Galapagos handline fishery by estimating the bycatch ratio, determining species compositions of landings and bycatch, identifying fishers' reasons for discarding certain individuals, and revealing historical trends in the bycatch ratio. The estimated bycatch ratio as a function of biomass of 0.40 and a diverse species composition of target catch and bycatch confirmed the low selectivity of this fishery. Most individuals were not landed for economic motivations, either because species (77.4%) or sizes (17.7%) are unmarketable or for regulatory reasons (5.9%). We found that bycatch contributes to growth overfishing of some target species because they are discarded or used as bait before reaching their first maturity. Moreover, over half of interviewees perceived a historical decrease in bycatch ratios that was explained by a diversification of the target catch due to the reduction in abundance of the traditionally most important target species. As some target species show signs of overfishing and to date there are no specific regulations for the finfish fishery species in place, we recommend the implementation of a series of management measures to protect critical life stages of overexploited species and to improve the selectivity of the Galapagos handline fishery.

Trends in hypothesis testing and related variables in nursing research: a retrospective exploratory study.

PubMed

Lash, Ayhan Aytekin; Plonczynski, Donna J; Sehdev, Amikar

2011-01-01

To compare the inclusion and the influences of selected variables on hypothesis testing during the 1980s and 1990s. In spite of the emphasis on conducting inquiry consistent with the tenets of logical positivism, there have been no studies investigating the frequency and patterns of hypothesis testing in nursing research The sample was obtained from the journal Nursing Research which was the research journal with the highest circulation during the study period under study. All quantitative studies published during the two decades including briefs and historical studies were included in the analyses A retrospective design was used to select the sample. Five years from the 1980s and 1990s each were randomly selected from the journal, Nursing Research. Of the 582 studies, 517 met inclusion criteria. Findings suggest that there has been a decline in the use of hypothesis testing in the last decades of the 20th century. Further research is needed to identify the factors that influence the conduction of research with hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing in nursing research showed a steady decline from the 1980s to 1990s. Research purposes of explanation, and prediction/ control increased the likelihood of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing strengthens the quality of the quantitative studies, increases the generality of findings and provides dependable knowledge. This is particularly true for quantitative studies that aim to explore, explain and predict/control phenomena and/or test theories. The findings also have implications for doctoral programmes, research preparation of nurse-investigators, and theory testing.

Catch, bycatch and discards of the Galapagos Marine Reserve small-scale handline fishery

PubMed Central

Schuhbauer, Anna C.; Usseglio, Paolo; Heel, Lena C.; Salinas-de-León, Pelayo

2015-01-01

Fisheries bycatch is a significant marine conservation issue as valuable fish are wasted and protected species harmed with potential negative ecological and socio-economic consequences. Even though there are indications that the small-scale handline fishery of the Galapagos Marine Reserve has a low selectivity, information on its bycatch has never been published. We used onboard monitoring and interview data to assess the bycatch of the Galapagos handline fishery by estimating the bycatch ratio, determining species compositions of landings and bycatch, identifying fishers’ reasons for discarding certain individuals, and revealing historical trends in the bycatch ratio. The estimated bycatch ratio as a function of biomass of 0.40 and a diverse species composition of target catch and bycatch confirmed the low selectivity of this fishery. Most individuals were not landed for economic motivations, either because species (77.4%) or sizes (17.7%) are unmarketable or for regulatory reasons (5.9%). We found that bycatch contributes to growth overfishing of some target species because they are discarded or used as bait before reaching their first maturity. Moreover, over half of interviewees perceived a historical decrease in bycatch ratios that was explained by a diversification of the target catch due to the reduction in abundance of the traditionally most important target species. As some target species show signs of overfishing and to date there are no specific regulations for the finfish fishery species in place, we recommend the implementation of a series of management measures to protect critical life stages of overexploited species and to improve the selectivity of the Galapagos handline fishery. PMID:26082874

Genome-Wide Association Study of Piglet Uniformity and Farrowing Interval

PubMed Central

Wang, Yuan; Ding, Xiangdong; Tan, Zhen; Ning, Chao; Xing, Kai; Yang, Ting; Pan, Yongjie; Sun, Dongxiao; Wang, Chuduan

2017-01-01

Piglet uniformity (PU) and farrowing interval (FI) are important reproductive traits related to production and economic profits in the pig industry. However, the genetic architecture of the longitudinal trends of reproductive traits still remains elusive. Herein, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to detect potential genetic variation and candidate genes underlying the phenotypic records at different parities for PU and FI in a population of 884 Large White pigs. In total, 12 significant SNPs were detected on SSC1, 3, 4, 9, and 14, which collectively explained 1–1.79% of the phenotypic variance for PU from parity 1 to 4, and 2.58–4.11% for FI at different stages. Of these, seven SNPs were located within 16 QTL regions related to swine reproductive traits. One QTL region was associated with birth body weight (related to PU) and contained the peak SNP MARC0040730, and another was associated with plasma FSH concentration (related to FI) and contained the SNP MARC0031325. Finally, some positional candidate genes for PU and FI were identified because of their roles in prenatal skeletal muscle development, fetal energy substrate, pre-implantation, and the expression of mammary gland epithelium. Identification of novel variants and candidate genes will greatly advance our understanding of the genetic mechanisms of PU and FI, and suggest a specific opportunity for improving marker assisted selection or genomic selection in pigs. PMID:29234349

Uncertainty in detecting trend: a new criterion and its applications to global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-10-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.

Uncertainty in Detecting Trend: A New Criterion and Its Applications to Global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.

Decadal Record of Satellite Carbon Monoxide Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worden, Helen; Deeter, Merritt; Frankenberg, Christian; George, Maya; Nichitiu, Florian; Worden, John; Aben, Ilse; Bowman, Kevin; Clerbaux, Cathy; Coheur, Pierre-Francois; de Laat, Jos; Warner, Juying; Drummond, James; Edwards, David; Gille, John; Hurtmans, Daniel; Ming, Luo; Martinez-Alonso, Sara; Massie, Steven; Pfister, Gabriele

2013-04-01

Atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) distributions are controlled by anthropogenic emissions, biomass burning, chemical production, transport and oxidation by reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH). Quantifying trends in CO is therefore important for understanding changes related to all of these contributions. Here we present a comprehensive record of satellite observations from 2000 through 2011 of total column CO using the available measurements from nadir-viewing thermal infrared instruments: MOPITT, AIRS, TES and IASI. We examine trends for CO in the Northern and Southern hemispheres along with regional trends for E. China, E. USA, Europe and India. Measurement and sampling methods for each of the instruments are discussed, and we show diagnostics for systematic errors in MOPITT trends. We find that all the satellite observations are consistent with a modest decreasing trend around -1%/year in total column CO over the Northern hemisphere for this time period. Decreasing trends in total CO column are observed for the United States, Europe and E. China with more than 2σ significance. For India, the trend is also decreasing, but smaller in magnitude and less significant. Decreasing trends in surface CO have also been observed from measurements in the U.S. and Europe. Although less information is available for surface CO in China, there is a decreasing trend reported for Beijing. Some of the interannual variability in the observations can be explained by global fire emissions, and there may be some evidence of the global financial crisis in late 2008 to early 2009. But the overall decrease needs further study to understand the implications for changes in anthropogenic emissions.

Selecting Trade Books for Elementary Science Units.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rop, Charles J.; Rop, Sheri K.

2001-01-01

Explains the importance of using well-chosen trade books for stimulating student interest and motivation in the natural world. Discusses how to assess and select trade books. Lists selected trade books on the life cycles of plants. (YDS)

Boltzmann, Darwin and Directionality theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demetrius, Lloyd A.

2013-09-01

Boltzmann’s statistical thermodynamics is a mathematical theory which relates the macroscopic properties of aggregates of interacting molecules with the laws of their interaction. The theory is based on the concept thermodynamic entropy, a statistical measure of the extent to which energy is spread throughout macroscopic matter. Macroscopic evolution of material aggregates is quantitatively explained in terms of the principle: Thermodynamic entropy increases as the composition of the aggregate changes under molecular collision. Darwin’s theory of evolution is a qualitative theory of the origin of species and the adaptation of populations to their environment. A central concept in the theory is fitness, a qualitative measure of the capacity of an organism to contribute to the ancestry of future generations. Macroscopic evolution of populations of living organisms can be qualitatively explained in terms of a neo-Darwinian principle: Fitness increases as the composition of the population changes under variation and natural selection. Directionality theory is a quantitative model of the Darwinian argument of evolution by variation and selection. This mathematical theory is based on the concept evolutionary entropy, a statistical measure which describes the rate at which an organism appropriates energy from the environment and reinvests this energy into survivorship and reproduction. According to directionality theory, microevolutionary dynamics, that is evolution by mutation and natural selection, can be quantitatively explained in terms of a directionality principle: Evolutionary entropy increases when the resources are diverse and of constant abundance; but decreases when the resource is singular and of variable abundance. This report reviews the analytical and empirical support for directionality theory, and invokes the microevolutionary dynamics of variation and selection to delineate the principles which govern macroevolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction. We also elucidate the relation between thermodynamic entropy, which pertains to the extent of energy spreading and sharing within inanimate matter, and evolutionary entropy, which refers to the rate of energy appropriation from the environment and allocation within living systems. We show that the entropic principle of thermodynamics is the limit as R→0, M→∞, (where R denote the resource production rate, and M denote population size) of the entropic principle of evolution. We exploit this relation between the thermodynamic and evolutionary tenets to propose a physico-chemical model of the transition from inanimate matter which is under thermodynamic selection, to living systems which are subject to evolutionary selection. Life history variation and the evolution of senescence The evolutionary dynamics of speciation and extinction Evolutionary trends in body size. The origin of sporadic forms of cancer and neurological diseases, and the evolution of cooperation are important recent applications of directionality theory. These applications, which draw from the medical sciences and sociobiology, appeal to methods which lie outside the formalism described in this report. A companion review, Demetrius and Gundlach (submitted for publication), gives an account of these applications.An important aspect of this report pertains to the connection between statistical mechanics and evolutionary theory and its implications towards understanding the processes which underlie the emergence of living systems from inanimate matter-a problem which has recently attracted considerable attention, Morowitz (1992), Eigen (1992), Dyson (2000), Pross (2012).The connection between the two disciplines can be addressed by appealing to certain extremal principles which are considered the mainstay of the respective theories.The extremal principle in statistical mechanics can be stated as follows:

Measurement of volatile organic chemicals at selected sites in California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Hanwant B.; Salas, L.; Viezee, W.; Sitton, B.; Ferek, R.

1992-01-01

Urban air concentrations of 24 selected volatile organic chemicals that may be potentially hazardous to human health and environment were measured during field experiments conducted at two California locations, at Houston, and at Denver. Chemicals measured included chlorofluorocarbons, halomethanes, haloethanes, halopropanes, chloroethylenes, and aromatic hydrocarbons. With emphasis on California sites, data from these studies are analyzed and interpreted with respect to variabilities in ambient air concentrations, diurnal changes, relation to prevailing meteorology, sources and trends. Except in a few instances, mean concentrations are typically between 0 and 5 ppb. Significant variabilities in atmospheric concentrations associated with intense sources and adverse meteorological conditions are shown to exist. In addition to short-term variability, there is evidence of systematic diurnal and seasonal trends. In some instances it is possible to detect declining trends resulting from the effectiveness of control strategies.

Variation in the annual unsatisfactory rates of selected pathogens and indicators in ready-to-eat food sampled from the point of sale or service in Wales, United Kingdom.

PubMed

Meldrum, R J; Garside, J; Mannion, P; Charles, D; Ellis, P

2012-12-01

The Welsh Food Microbiological Forum "shopping basket" survey is a long running, structured surveillance program examining ready-to-eat food randomly sampled from the point of sale or service in Wales, United Kingdom. The annual unsatisfactory rates for selected indicators and pathogens for 1998 through 2008 were examined. All the annual unsatisfactory rates for the selected pathogens were <0.5%, and no pattern with the annual rate was observed. There was also no discernible trend observed for the annual rates of Listeria spp. (not moncytogenes), with all rates <0.5%. However, there was a trend observed for Esherichia coli, with a decrease in rate between 1998 and 2003, rapid in the first few years, and then a gradual increase in rate up to 2008. It was concluded that there was no discernible pattern to the annual unsatisfactory rates for Listeria spp. (not monocytogenes), L. monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Bacillus cereus, but that a definite trend had been observed for E. coli.

Rate and Selectivity Control in Thioether and Alkene Oxidation with H 2 O 2 over Phosphonate-Modified Niobium(V)-Silica Catalysts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornburg, Nicholas E.; Notestein, Justin M.

Supported metal oxide catalysts are versatile materials for liquid-phase oxidations, including alkene epoxidation and thioether sulfoxidation with H2O2. Periodic trends in H2O2 activation was recently demonstrated for alkene epoxidation, highlighting Nb-SiO2 as a more active and selective catalyst than Ti-SiO2. Three representative catalysts are studied consisting of NbV, TiIV, and ZrIV on silica, each made through a molecular precursor approach that yields highly dispersed oxide sites, for thioanisole oxidation by H2O2. Initial rates trend Nb>Ti>>Zr, as for epoxidation, and Nb outperforms Ti for a number of other thioethers. In contrast, selectivity to sulfoxide vs. sulfone trends Ti>Nb>>Zr at all conversions.more » Modifying the Nb-SiO2 catalyst with phenylphosphonic acid does not completely remove sulfoxidation reactivity, as it did for photooxidation and epoxidation, and results in an unusual material active for sulfoxidation but neither epoxidation nor overoxidation to the sulfone.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Illera, S., E-mail: sillera@el.ub.edu; Prades, J. D.; Cirera, A.

The role of different charge transport mechanisms in Si/SiO{sub 2} structures has been studied. A theoretical model based on the Transfer Hamiltonian Formalism has been developed to explain experimental current trends in terms of three different elastic tunneling processes: (1) trap assisted tunneling; (2) transport through an intermediate quantum dot; and (3) direct tunneling between leads. In general, at low fields carrier transport is dominated by the quantum dots whereas, for moderate and high fields, transport through deep traps inherent to the SiO{sub 2} is the most relevant process. Besides, current trends in Si/SiO{sub 2} superlattice structure have been properlymore » reproduced.« less

Statistical analysis of financial returns for a multiagent order book model of asset trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Golke, Sebastian; Paul, Wolfgang; Schneider, Johannes J.

2007-07-01

We recently introduced a realistic order book model [T. Preis , Europhys. Lett. 75, 510 (2006)] which is able to generate the stylized facts of financial markets. We analyze this model in detail, explain the consequences of the use of different groups of traders, and focus on the foundation of a nontrivial Hurst exponent based on the introduction of a market trend. Our order book model supports the theoretical argument that a nontrivial Hurst exponent implies not necessarily long-term correlations. A coupling of the order placement depth to the market trend can produce fat tails, which can be described by a truncated Lévy distribution.

The redox state of iron in the matrix of CI, CM and metamorphosed CM chondrites by XANES spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, P.; De Andrade, V.; Orthous-Daunay, F.-R.; Veronesi, G.; Cotte, M.; Quirico, E.; Schmitt, B.

2012-12-01

Carbonaceous chondrites record the action of water at some point of their petrological history. These meteorites are usually connected to low albedo asteroid, which present visible/near-IR absorption explained by iron related absorption within phyllosilicates and oxides. In order to obtain quantitative insight into the mineralogy of iron-bearing phases, we have measured X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy at the iron K-edge of matrix from carbonaceous chondrites. This method enables to constrain the redox state and environment of iron in these meteorites. For this study, we selected seven CM chondrites and the CI Orgueil, expected to span a range of aqueous alteration degrees. Our analysis of the pre-edge features show that the redox state of Orgueil (CI) is dominated by octahedral Fe and that the Fe3+/(Fe3++Fe2+) atomic ratio is above 80%. Full-inversion of the spectra suggests that the iron budget is dominated by iron oxides, with additional contributions from phyllosilicate. In the case of the CM, the iron speciation appears different that in the case of Orgueil. Cronstedtite is identified from the inversion of the spectra, and suggested by the presence of significant amount of tetrahedral Fe3+. Within the CM chondrites, a trend of aqueous alteration appears presents, and which is roughly correlated to the scheme defined by Rubin et al. (2007). This trend is characterized by an increase in the amount of iron oxides. Two shock metamorphosed CM are present in our dataset (PCA 91008, WIS 91600). If WIS 91600 does not appear distinguishable, from the CM trend, in the case of PCA 91008, shock metamorphism did impact the pre-edge intensity and an increased amount of anhydrous silicates is found. Although the matrix was dehydrated, significant amount of Fe3+ is still present, providing a memory of the aqueous alteration.

Fall-related mortality in southern Sweden: a multiple cause of death analysis, 1998-2014.

PubMed

Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Rosengren, Björn E; Englund, Martin

2017-10-22

To investigate temporal trend in fall mortality among adults (aged ≥20 years) in southern Sweden using multiple cause of death data. We examined all death certificates (DCs, n=2 01 488) in adults recorded in the Skåne region during 1998-2014. We identified all fall deaths using International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes (W00-W19) and calculated the mortality rates by age and sex. Temporal trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression and associated causes were identified by age-adjusted and sex-adjusted observed/expected ratios. Falls were mentioned on 1.0% and selected as underlying cause in 0.7% of all DCs, with the highest frequency among those aged ≥70 years. The majority (75.6%) of fall deaths were coded as unspecified fall (ICD-10 code: W19) followed by falling on or from stairs/steps (7.7%, ICD-10 code: W10) and other falls on the same level (6.3%, ICD-10 code: W18). The mean age at fall deaths increased from 77.5 years in 1998-2002 to 82.9 years in 2010-2014 while for other deaths it increased from 78.5 to 79.8 years over the same period. The overall mean age-standardised rate of fall mortality was 8.3 and 4.0 per 1 00 000 person-years in men and women, respectively, and increased by 1.7% per year in men and 0.8% per year in women during 1998-2014. Head injury and diseases of the circulatory system were recorded as contributing cause on 48.7% of fall deaths. There is an increasing trend of deaths due to falls in southern Sweden. Further investigations are required to explain this observation particularly among elderly men. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Combining Feature Selection and Integration—A Neural Model for MT Motion Selectivity

PubMed Central

Beck, Cornelia; Neumann, Heiko

2011-01-01

Background The computation of pattern motion in visual area MT based on motion input from area V1 has been investigated in many experiments and models attempting to replicate the main mechanisms. Two different core conceptual approaches were developed to explain the findings. In integrationist models the key mechanism to achieve pattern selectivity is the nonlinear integration of V1 motion activity. In contrast, selectionist models focus on the motion computation at positions with 2D features. Methodology/Principal Findings Recent experiments revealed that neither of the two concepts alone is sufficient to explain all experimental data and that most of the existing models cannot account for the complex behaviour found. MT pattern selectivity changes over time for stimuli like type II plaids from vector average to the direction computed with an intersection of constraint rule or by feature tracking. Also, the spatial arrangement of the stimulus within the receptive field of a MT cell plays a crucial role. We propose a recurrent neural model showing how feature integration and selection can be combined into one common architecture to explain these findings. The key features of the model are the computation of 1D and 2D motion in model area V1 subpopulations that are integrated in model MT cells using feedforward and feedback processing. Our results are also in line with findings concerning the solution of the aperture problem. Conclusions/Significance We propose a new neural model for MT pattern computation and motion disambiguation that is based on a combination of feature selection and integration. The model can explain a range of recent neurophysiological findings including temporally dynamic behaviour. PMID:21814543

High-Contrast Imaging of Intermediate-Mass Giants with Long-Term Radial Velocity Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryu, Tsuguru; Sato, Bun'ei; Kuzuhara, Masayuki; Narita, Norio; Takahashi, Yasuhiro; Uyama, Taichi; Kudo, Tomoyuki; Kusakabe, Nobuhiko; Hashimoto, Jun; Omiya, Masashi;

Food crises, food regimes and food movements: rumblings of reform or tides of transformation?

PubMed

Holt Giménez, Eric; Shattuck, Annie

2011-01-01

This article addresses the potential for food movements to bring about substantive changes to the current global food system. After describing the current corporate food regime, we apply Karl Polanyi's 'double-movement' thesis on capitalism to explain the regime's trends of neoliberalism and reform. Using the global food crisis as a point of departure, we introduce a comparative analytical framework for different political and social trends within the corporate food regime and global food movements, characterizing them as 'Neoliberal', 'Reformist', 'Progressive', and 'Radical', respectively, and describe each trend based on its discourse, model, and key actors, approach to the food crisis, and key documents. After a discussion of class, political permeability, and tensions within the food movements, we suggest that the current food crisis offers opportunities for strategic alliances between Progressive and Radical trends within the food movement. We conclude that while the food crisis has brought a retrenchment of neoliberalization and weak calls for reform, the worldwide growth of food movements directly and indirectly challenge the legitimacy and hegemony of the corporate food regime. Regime change will require sustained pressure from a strong global food movement, built on durable alliances between Progressive and Radical trends.

High-contrast Imaging of Intermediate-mass Giants with Long-term Radial Velocity Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Tsuguru; Sato, Bun'ei; Kuzuhara, Masayuki; Narita, Norio; Takahashi, Yasuhiro H.; Uyama, Taichi; Kudo, Tomoyuki; Kusakabe, Nobuhiko; Hashimoto, Jun; Omiya, Masashi; Harakawa, Hiroki; Abe, Lyu; Ando, Hiroyasu; Brandner, Wolfgang; Brandt, Timothy D.; Carson, Joseph C.; Currie, Thayne; Egner, Sebastian; Feldt, Markus; Goto, Miwa; Grady, Carol A.; Guyon, Olivier; Hayano, Yutaka; Hayashi, Masahiko; Hayashi, Saeko S.; Hełminiak, Krzysztof G.; Henning, Thomas; Hodapp, Klaus W.; Ida, Shigeru; Ishii, Miki; Itoh, Yoichi; Iye, Masanori; Izumiura, Hideyuki; Janson, Markus; Kambe, Eiji; Kandori, Ryo; Knapp, Gillian R.; Kokubo, Eiichiro; Kwon, Jungmi; Matsuo, Taro; Mayama, Satoshi; McElwain, Michael W.; Mede, Kyle; Miyama, Shoken; Morino, Jun-Ichi; Moro-Martin, Amaya; Nishimura, Tetsuo; Pyo, Tae-Soo; Serabyn, Eugene; Suenaga, Takuya; Suto, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Ryuji; Takami, Michihiro; Takato, Naruhisa; Takeda, Yoichi; Terada, Hiroshi; Thalmann, Christian; Turner, Edwin L.; Watanabe, Makoto; Wisniewski, John; Yamada, Toru; Yoshida, Michitoshi; Takami, Hideki; Usuda, Tomonori; Tamura, Motohide

2016-07-01

A radial velocity (RV) survey for intermediate-mass giants has been in operation for over a decade at Okayama Astrophysical Observatory (OAO). The OAO survey has revealed that some giants show long-term linear RV accelerations (RV trends), indicating the presence of outer companions. Direct-imaging observations can help clarify what objects generate these RV trends. We present the results of high-contrast imaging observations of six intermediate-mass giants with long-term RV trends using the Subaru Telescope and HiCIAO camera. We detected co-moving companions to γ Hya B ({0.61}-0.14+0.12{M}⊙ ), HD 5608 B (0.10+/- 0.01{M}⊙ ), and HD 109272 B (0.28+/- 0.06{M}⊙ ). For the remaining targets (ι Dra, 18 Del, and HD 14067), we exclude companions more massive than 30-60 M Jup at projected separations of 1″-7″. We examine whether these directly imaged companions or unidentified long-period companions can account for the RV trends observed around the six giants. We find that the Kozai mechanism can explain the high eccentricity of the inner planets ι Dra b, HD 5608 b, and HD 14067 b.

Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?

PubMed Central

Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang

2015-01-01

The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998–2013 (0.25 °C decade−1), compared with that during 1980–1997 (0.21 °C decade−1). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud–radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud–radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:26329678

[Prevalence of selected congenital anomalies in the Czech Republic: congenital anomalies of the central nervous system and gastrointestinal tract].

PubMed

Šípek, A; Gregor, V; Horáček, J; Šípek, A; Klaschka, J; Malý, M

2015-03-01

Analysis of the prevalence of selected congenital anomalies in the Czech Republic in 1994-2009. Retrospective epidemiological analysis of the postnatal and overall (including prenatally diagnosed cases) prevalence of congenital anomalies from the database of the National Registry of Congenital Anomalies of the Czech Republic. Data from the National Registry of Congenital Anomalies (NRCA) maintained by the Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic (IHIS CR) were used. The analysis was carried out for the entire Czech Republic, based on the data from 1994 to 2009. Additional data on prenatally diagnosed anomalies were obtained from medical genetics centres and laboratories in the Czech Republic. This study analyzed the postnatal and overall (including prenatally diagnosed cases) prevalence of congenital anomalies. More detailed analysis was carried out for the following diagnoses: anencephaly, spina bifida, encephalocoele, congenital hydrocephalus, omphalocoele, gastroschisis, oesophageal atresia and stenosis, anorectal anomalies, and diaphragmatic hernia. Prevalence trends were analysed using Poisson regression. In 2009, a total of 118 348 live births were recorded in the Czech Republic, 60 368 boys and 57 980 girls. Of this total, 4 653, i.e. 2 745 boys and 1 908 girls, were diagnosed with congenital anomalies. In 2007-2009, the total of life births with congenital anomalies ranged between 4.6 and 4.8 thousand per year. The respective ranges in this three-year period were in the order of 2.7 and 2.8 thousand per year for boys and 1.9 thousand per year for girls. The prevalence of postnatally diagnosed anencephaly was minimal, as most cases were diagnosed prenatally, and the data did not vary significantly. The prevalence of postnatally diagnosed cases remained at the same level. The effectiveness of the prenatal diagnosis of spina bifida increased and thus the prevalence of postnatally diagnosed cases decreased. The prevalence of prenatally diagnosed encephalocoele increased and that of postnatally diagnosed cases varied between years, with no clear trend. The prevalence of omphalocoele varied for both prenatally and postnatally diagnosed cases; nevertheless, the effectiveness of prenatal diagnosis of this defect increases. The prevalence of gastroschisis remained unchanged, but the number of live births with this diagnosis showed a non-significant upward trend. If the trend reflects the real situation, it could be a result of a changed approach to prenatal diagnosis due to advances in corrective surgery of this defect. The prevalence of live births with congenital hydrocephalus showed a downward trend in the second half of the period 1994-2009 thanks to the improved diagnosis. The prevalence rates of live births with congenital esophageal and anorectal anomalies were slightly increasing. The prevalence of congenital diaphragmatic hernia varied between years but the overall prevalence appeared to be slightly increasing. The prevalence of some congenital anomalies (spina bifida, omphalocoele, and congenital hydrocephalus) showed a downward trend over the study period 1994-2009, mainly as a result of effective prenatal diagnosis. The prevalence of other congenital anomalies such as anencephaly or encephalocoele remained unchanged in live births. As for anencephaly, postnatally diagnosed cases were rare as the prenatal diagnosis was close to 100 %. The trend in encephalocoele is explained by the low incidence of this diagnosis in the population. The third group of postnatally diagnosed congenital anomalies such as gastroschisis or esophageal and anorectal anomalies were on the rise. As for gastroschisis, the reason was the changed approach to prenatal diagnosis due to good prognosis of this operable defect. The prevalence of congenital esophageal and anorectal anomalies varied between years, with a slowly increasing trend, similarly to diaphragmatic hernia.

Optimization of selection for growth in Menz Sheep while minimizing inbreeding depression in fitness traits

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

The genetic trends in fitness (inbreeding, fertility and survival) of a closed nucleus flock of Menz sheep under selection during ten years for increased body weight were investigated to evaluate the consequences of selection for body weight on fitness. A mate selection tool was used to optimize in retrospect the actual selection and matings conducted over the project period to assess if the observed genetic gains in body weight could have been achieved with a reduced level of inbreeding. In the actual selection, the genetic trends for yearling weight, fertility of ewes and survival of lambs were 0.81 kg, –0.00026% and 0.016% per generation. The average inbreeding coefficient remained zero for the first few generations and then tended to increase over generations. The genetic gains achieved with the optimized retrospective selection and matings were highly comparable with the observed values, the correlation between the average breeding values of lambs born from the actual and optimized matings over the years being 0.99. However, the level of inbreeding with the optimized mate selections remained zero until late in the years of selection. Our results suggest that an optimal selection strategy that considers both genetic merits and coancestry of mates should be adopted to sustain the Menz sheep breeding program. PMID:23783076

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Winter, Lea R.; Gomez, Elaine; Yan, Binhang

CO 2 hydrogenation over Fe-modified Ni/CeO 2 catalysts was investigated in a batch reactor using time-resolved in situ FTIR spectroscopy. Low loading of Ni/CeO 2 was associated with high selectivity to CO over CH 4, while higher Ni loading improved CO 2 hydrogenation activity with a reduced CO selectivity. X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) analysis revealed Ni to be metallic for all catalysts including the CO-selective low loading 0.5% Ni catalyst, suggesting that the selectivity trend is due to structural rather than oxidation state effects. The loading amount of 1.5% Ni was selected for co-impregnation with Fe, based on themore » significant shift in product selectivity towards CH 4 for that loading amount, in order to shift the selectivity towards CO while maintaining high activity. Temperature programmed reduction (TPR) results indicated bimetallic interactions between Ni and Fe, and XANES analysis showed that about 70% of Fe in the bimetallic catalysts was oxidized. The Ni-Fe catalysts demonstrated improved selectivity towards CO without significantly compromising activity, coupling the high activity of Ni catalysts and the high CO selectivity of Fe. The general trends in Ni loading and bimetallic modification should guide efforts to develop non-precious metal catalysts for the selective production of CO by CO 2 hydrogenation.« less

Molecular origin of the selectivity differences between palladium and gold-palladium in benzyl alcohol oxidation: Different oxygen adsorption properties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Savara, Aditya Ashi; Chan-Thaw, Carine E.; Sutton, Jonathan E.

The same mechanism and microkinetic model used for benzyl alcohol oxidation over Pd/C was shown to apply to benzyl alcohol oxidation over AuPd/C. Almost all of the selectivity differences could be explained by a decrease in oxygen adsorption on AuPd. After isolating oxygen adsorption as being the origin of the selectivity differences, density functional theory was used to investigate the oxygen adsorption properties of a pure Pd surface, a pure Au surface, and an alloyed AuPd surface. Finally, the calculations showed that Au–Pd alloying decreased the oxygen adsorption properties relative to pure Pd, which explained the selectivity differences, consistent withmore » the microkinetic modeling.« less

Temporal changes in aquatic-invertebrate and fish assemblages in streams of the north-central and northeastern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennen, Jonathan G.; Sullivan, Daniel J.; May, Jason T.; Bell, Amanda H.; Beaulieu, Karen M.; Rice, Donald E.

2012-01-01

Many management agencies seek to evaluate temporal changes in aquatic assemblages at monitoring sites, but few have sites with ecological time series that are long enough for this purpose. Trends in aquatic-invertebrate and fish assemblage composition were assessed at 27 long-term monitoring sites in the north-central and northeastern United States. Temporal changes were identified using serial trend analysis. Sites with significant serial trends were further evaluated by relating explanatory environmental variables (e.g., streamflow, habitat, and water chemistry) to changes in assemblage composition. Significant trends were found at 19 of 27 study sites; however, differences in the sensitivity of the aquatic fauna to environmental stressors were identified. For example, significant trends in fish assemblages were found at more sites (15 of 27) than for aquatic-invertebrate assemblages (10 of 27 sites). In addition, trends in the invertebrate assemblage were most often explained by changes in streamflow processes (e.g., duration and magnitude of low- and high-flows, streamflow variability, and annual rates of change), whereas trends in the fish assemblage were more related to changes in water chemistry. Results illustrate the value of long-term monitoring for the purpose of assessing temporal trends in aquatic assemblages. The ability to detect trends in assemblage composition and to attribute these changes to environmental factors is necessary to understand mechanistic pathways and to further our understanding of how incremental anthropogenic alterations modify aquatic assemblages over time. Finally, this study's approach to trends analysis can be used to better inform the design of monitoring programs as well as support the ongoing management needs of stakeholders, water-resource agencies, and policy makers.

Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najibi, Nasser; Devineni, Naresh

2018-06-01

Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985-2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1-7, moderate: 8-20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. Results show that flood frequency and the tails of the flood duration (long duration) have increased at both the global and the latitudinal scales. In the tropics, floods have increased 4-fold since the 2000s. This increase is 2.5-fold in the north midlatitudes. However, much of the trend in frequency and duration of the floods can be placed within the long-term climate variability context since the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation were the main atmospheric teleconnections explaining this trend. There is no monotonic trend in the frequency of short-duration floods across all the global and latitudinal scales. There is a significant increasing trend in the annual median of flood durations globally and each latitudinal belt, and this trend is not related to these teleconnections. While the DFO data come with a certain level of epistemic uncertainty due to imprecision in the estimation of floods, overall, the analysis provides insights for understanding the frequency and persistence in hydrologic extremes and how they relate to changes in the climate, organization of global and local dynamical systems, and country-scale socioeconomic factors.

Is solar correction for long-term trend studies stable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

When calculating long-term trends in the ionosphere, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle (i.e. of solar activity) must be removed from data, because it is much stronger than the long-term trend. When a data series is analyzed for trend, usual approach is first to calculate from all data their dependence on solar activity and create an observational model of dependence on solar activity. Then the model data are subtracted from observations and trend is computed from residuals. This means that it is assumed that the solar activity dependence is stable over the whole data series period of time. But what happens if it is not the case? As an ionospheric parameter we consider foE from two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence with one correction for the whole period is complex. For yearly average values for both stations first foE is slightly decreasing in 1975-1990, then the trend levels off or a very little increase occurs in 1990-2005, and finally in 2006-2014 a remarkable decrease is observed. This does not seem to be physically plausible. However, when the solar correction is calculated separately for the three above periods, we obtain a smooth slightly negative trend which changes after the mid-1990 into no trend in coincidence with change of ozone trend. While solar corrections for the first two periods are similar (even though not equal), the solar activity dependence of foE in the third period (lower solar activity) is clearly different. Also foF2 trend revealed some effect of unstable solar correction. Thus the stability of solar correction should be carefully tested when calculating ionospheric trends. This could perhaps explain some of differences between the past published trend results.

CMS MDS 3.0 Section M Skin Conditions in Long-term Care: Pressure Ulcers, Skin Tears, and Moisture-Associated Skin Damage Data Update.

PubMed

Ayello, Elizabeth A

2017-09-01

The purpose of this learning activity is to provide information about the updates to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) MDS 3.0 Section M, Skin Conditions documentation in long-term care. This continuing education activity is intended for physicians, physician assistants, nurse practitioners, and nurses with an interest in skin and wound care. After participating in this educational activity, the participant should be better able to:1. Explain the use of the CMS MDS 3.0 tool for documenting skin problems in long-term care.2. Demonstrate examples of proper documentation for specific skin problems. This manuscript reviews some of the key parts of the October 2016 revised Long-term Care Resident Assessment Instrument manual for Minimum Data Set (MDS) 3.0 Section M Skin Conditions. It also reports the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid's publicly reported frequency data in long-term care for selected items on the MDS 3.0 Section M Skin Conditions. Percentages and trends of pressure ulcers/injuries, skin tears, and moisture-associated skin damage are assessed.

Ballistic food transport in toucans.

PubMed

Baussart, Sabine; Korsoun, Leonid; Libourel, Paul-Antoine; Bels, Vincent

2009-08-01

The basic mechanism of food transport in tetrapods is lingual-based. Neognathous birds use this mechanism for exploiting a large diversity of food resources, whereas paleognathous birds use cranioinertial mechanism with or without tongue involvement. Food transport in two neognathous species of toucans (Ramphastos toco and R. vitellinus) is defined as ballistic transport mechanism. Only one transport cycle is used for moving the food from the tip of the beak to the pharynx. The food is projected between jaws with similar initial velocity in both species. At the time of release, the angle between trajectory of food position and horizontal is higher in R. vitellinus with a shorter beak than in R. toco. The tongue never makes contact with the food nor is it used to expand the buccal cavity. Tongue movement is associated with throat expansion, permitting the food to reach the entrance of the esophagus at the end of the ballistic trajectory. Selection of large food items in the diet may explain the evolutionary trend of using ballistic transport in the feeding behavior of toucans, which plays a key role in ecology of tropical forest. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Understanding Muslim patients: cross-cultural dental hygiene care.

PubMed

Sirois, M L; Darby, M; Tolle, S

2013-05-01

Healthcare providers who understand the basic pillars of Islamic beliefs and common religious practices can apply these concepts, anticipate the needs of the Muslim patient and family, and attract Muslim patients to the practice. Cross cultural knowledge can motivate dental hygienists to adopt culturally acceptable behaviors, strengthen patient-provider relationships and optimize therapeutic outcomes. Trends in Muslim population growth, Islamic history and beliefs, modesty practices, healthcare beliefs, contraception, childbearing, childrearing, pilgrimage, dietary practices, dental care considerations and communication are explained. This paper reviews traditional Muslim beliefs and practices regarding lifestyle, customs, healthcare and religion as derived from the literature and study abroad experiences. Recommendations are offered on how to blend western healthcare with Islamic practices when making introductions, appointments, eye contact, and selecting a practitioner. The significance of fasting and how dental hygiene care can invalidate the fast are also discussed. The ultimate goal is for practitioners to be culturally competent in providing care to Muslim patients, while keeping in mind that beliefs and practices can vary widely within a culture. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Foreign currency rate forecasting using neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandya, Abhijit S.; Kondo, Tadashi; Talati, Amit; Jayadevappa, Suryaprasad

2000-03-01

Neural networks are increasingly being used as a forecasting tool in many forecasting problems. This paper discusses the application of neural networks in predicting daily foreign exchange rates between the USD, GBP as well as DEM. We approach the problem from a time-series analysis framework - where future exchange rates are forecasted solely using past exchange rates. This relies on the belief that the past prices and future prices are very close related, and interdependent. We present the result of training a neural network with historical USD-GBP data. The methodology used in explained, as well as the training process. We discuss the selection of inputs to the network, and present a comparison of using the actual exchange rates and the exchange rate differences as inputs. Price and rate differences are the preferred way of training neural network in financial applications. Results of both approaches are present together for comparison. We show that the network is able to learn the trends in the exchange rate movements correctly, and present the results of the prediction over several periods of time.

Seasonal prediction of winter haze days in the north central North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Zhicong; Wang, Huijun

2016-11-01

Recently, the winter (December-February) haze pollution over the north central North China Plain (NCP) has become severe. By treating the year-to-year increment as the predictand, two new statistical schemes were established using the multiple linear regression (MLR) and the generalized additive model (GAM). By analyzing the associated increment of atmospheric circulation, seven leading predictors were selected to predict the upcoming winter haze days over the NCP (WHDNCP). After cross validation, the root mean square error and explained variance of the MLR (GAM) prediction model was 3.39 (3.38) and 53 % (54 %), respectively. For the final predicted WHDNCP, both of these models could capture the interannual and interdecadal trends and the extremums successfully. Independent prediction tests for 2014 and 2015 also confirmed the good predictive skill of the new schemes. The predicted bias of the MLR (GAM) prediction model in 2014 and 2015 was 0.09 (-0.07) and -3.33 (-1.01), respectively. Compared to the MLR model, the GAM model had a higher predictive skill in reproducing the rapid and continuous increase of WHDNCP after 2010.

Social Accountable Medical Education: A concept analysis.

PubMed

Abdolmaleki, Mohammadreza; Yazdani, Shahram; Momeni, Sedigheh; Momtazmanesh, Nader

2017-07-01

Considering the pervasiveness of social accountable medical education concept around the world and the growing trend of literature in this regard as well as various interpretations made about this concept, we found it necessary to analyze the concept of social accountable medical education. In this study, the modified version of McKenna's approach to concept analysis was used to determine the concept, explain structures and substructures and determine the border concepts neighboring and against social accountability in medical education. By studying the selected sources,the components of the concept were obtained to identify it and express an analytic definition of social accountability in medical education system. Then, a model case with all attributes of the given concept and the contrary and related concepts were mentioned to determine the boundary between the main concept and auxiliary ones. According to the results of this study in the field of social accountability, the detailed and transparent analytical definition of social accountable medical education can be used in future studies as well as the function and evaluation of medical education system.