Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event

Treesearch

Jamie M. Lydersen; Brandon M. Collins; Matthew L. Brooks; John R. Matchett; Kristen L. Shive; Nicholas A. Povak; Van R. Kane; Douglas F. Smith

2017-01-01

Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western U.S. Given this increase there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels...

Mitigation of Disasters Due to Severe Climate Events: from Policy to Practice,the West African Coastal Region Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ediang, Okuku

2016-07-01

The distributive pattern of disaster due to severe climate events over the coast of West Africa especially Nigeria was examined using yearly mean disaster due to severe climatic events for the period of 30 years (1981-2010) from the marine stations in the coastal region of Nigeria. Graphical and isohyetal analyses were used to look into the patter of severe weather events over the area considered and to see if the severe weather events is increasing or not in the coast of West Africa especially the Nigerian coast and how to mitigate ,were policy relating to severe weather events are discussed. The paper conclude that due to the nature of coast of West Africa and Nigeria in particular, it enjoys longer severe weather events season than dry during the wet season, it is common to observe periods of enhanced or suppressed convective activity to persist over the wide areas for somedays. This paper also contributes to the wealth of knowledge already existing on Indigenous people play major roles in preserving the ecosystem especially during severe weather events . This has resulted in the recent calls for the integration of indigenous knowledge systems into global knowledge system strategies. Until now, integrating local knowledge systems into severe weather events and climate change concerns is not a completely new idea. A comprehensive review of literature using electronic and non-electronic databases formed the methodology. The paper conclude also by drawing the attention that by targeting Promoting indigenous people's participation in severe weather events and climate change issues is an important initiative towards adaptation and sustainable development in Africa and around the world. It is increasingly realized that the global knowledge system has dominated research, policies and programmes that address current severe weather events and climate change's challenges,mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a climate driver for U.S. severe thunderstorm activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, M. J.; Timmer, R. P.; Allen, J. T.

2016-12-01

Different features of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), such as the Loop Current and warm-core rings, are found to influence monthly-to-seasonal severe weather occurrence in different regions of the United States (U.S.). The warmer (cooler) the GOM sea surface temperatures, the more (less) hail and tornadoes occur during March-May over the southern U.S. This pattern is reflected physically in boundary layer specific humidity and mixed-layer convective available potential energy, two large-scale atmospheric conditions favorable for severe weather occurrence. This relationship is complicated by interactions between the GOM and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but persists when analyzing ENSO neutral conditions. This suggests that the GOM can influence hail and tornado occurrence and provides another source of regional predictability for seasonal severe weather.

Initial Results of Coupling the Output of a Regional Weather Model and a Localized Computational Fluid Dynamics Model at the Atlantic City International Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; Rios, Manny; King, David; Decicco, Nicholas

2015-04-01

Wake Vortex Turbulence is the turbulence generated by an aircraft in flight. This turbulence is created by vortices at the tips of the wing that may decay slowly and persist for several minutes after creation. The strength, formation and lifetime of the turbulence and vortices are effected by many things including the weather. Here we present the preliminary results of an investigation of low level wind fields generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and an analysis of historical data. The simulations are used as inputs for the computational fluid dynamics model (OpenFoam) that will be used to investigate the effect of weather on wake turbulence. The initial results of the OpenFoam model are presented elsewhere. Presented here are the initial results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA''.

Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather

PubMed Central

Gilleland, Eric; Brown, Barbara G; Ammann, Caspar M

2013-01-01

Concurrently high values of the maximum potential wind speed of updrafts (Wmax) and 0–6 km wind shear (Shear) have been found to represent conducive environments for severe weather, which subsequently provides a way to study severe weather in future climates. Here, we employ a model for the product of these variables (WmSh) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research/United States National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis over North America conditioned on their having extreme energy in the spatial field in order to project the predominant spatial patterns of WmSh. The approach is based on the Heffernan and Tawn conditional extreme value model. Results suggest that this technique estimates the spatial behavior of WmSh well, which allows for exploring possible changes in the patterns over time. While the model enables a method for inferring the uncertainty in the patterns, such analysis is difficult with the currently available inference approach. A variation of the method is also explored to investigate how this type of model might be used to qualitatively understand how the spatial patterns of WmSh correspond to extreme river flow events. A case study for river flows from three rivers in northwestern Tennessee is studied, and it is found that advection of WmSh from the Gulf of Mexico prevails while elsewhere, WmSh is generally very low during such extreme events. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics published by JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24223482

Mining key elements for severe convection prediction based on CNN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ming; Pan, Ning; Zhang, Changan; Sha, Hongzhou; Zhang, Bolei; Liu, Liang; Zhang, Meng

2017-04-01

Severe convective weather is a kind of weather disasters accompanied by heavy rainfall, gust wind, hail, etc. Along with recent developments on remote sensing and numerical modeling, there are high-volume and long-term observational and modeling data accumulated to capture massive severe convective events over particular areas and time periods. With those high-volume and high-variety weather data, most of the existing studies and methods carry out the dynamical laws, cause analysis, potential rule study, and prediction enhancement by utilizing the governing equations from fluid dynamics and thermodynamics. In this study, a key-element mining method is proposed for severe convection prediction based on convolution neural network (CNN). It aims to identify the key areas and key elements from huge amounts of historical weather data including conventional measurements, weather radar, satellite, so as numerical modeling and/or reanalysis data. Under this manner, the machine-learning based method could help the human forecasters on their decision-making on operational weather forecasts on severe convective weathers by extracting key information from the real-time and historical weather big data. In this paper, it first utilizes computer vision technology to complete the data preprocessing work of the meteorological variables. Then, it utilizes the information such as radar map and expert knowledge to annotate all images automatically. And finally, by using CNN model, it cloud analyze and evaluate each weather elements (e.g., particular variables, patterns, features, etc.), and identify key areas of those critical weather elements, then help forecasters quickly screen out the key elements from huge amounts of observation data by current weather conditions. Based on the rich weather measurement and model data (up to 10 years) over Fujian province in China, where the severe convective weathers are very active during the summer months, experimental tests are conducted with the new machine-learning method via CNN models. Based on the analysis of those experimental results and case studies, the proposed new method have below benefits for the severe convection prediction: (1) helping forecasters to narrow down the scope of analysis and saves lead-time for those high-impact severe convection; (2) performing huge amount of weather big data by machine learning methods rather relying on traditional theory and knowledge, which provide new method to explore and quantify the severe convective weathers; (3) providing machine learning based end-to-end analysis and processing ability with considerable scalability on data volumes, and accomplishing the analysis work without human intervention.

Colluvial deposits as a possible weathering reservoir in uplifting mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carretier, Sébastien; Goddéris, Yves; Martinez, Javier; Reich, Martin; Martinod, Pierre

2018-03-01

The role of mountain uplift in the evolution of the global climate over geological times is controversial. At the heart of this debate is the capacity of rapid denudation to drive silicate weathering, which consumes CO2. Here we present the results of a 3-D model that couples erosion and weathering during mountain uplift, in which, for the first time, the weathered material is traced during its stochastic transport from the hillslopes to the mountain outlet. To explore the response of weathering fluxes to progressively cooler and drier climatic conditions, we run model simulations accounting for a decrease in temperature with or without modifications in the rainfall pattern based on a simple orographic model. At this stage, the model does not simulate the deep water circulation, the precipitation of secondary minerals, variations in the pH, below-ground pCO2, and the chemical affinity of the water in contact with minerals. Consequently, the predicted silicate weathering fluxes probably represent a maximum, although the predicted silicate weathering rates are within the range of silicate and total weathering rates estimated from field data. In all cases, the erosion rate increases during mountain uplift, which thins the regolith and produces a hump in the weathering rate evolution. This model thus predicts that the weathering outflux reaches a peak and then falls, consistent with predictions of previous 1-D models. By tracking the pathways of particles, the model can also consider how lateral river erosion drives mass wasting and the temporary storage of colluvial deposits on the valley sides. This reservoir is comprised of fresh material that has a residence time ranging from several years up to several thousand years. During this period, the weathering of colluvium appears to sustain the mountain weathering flux. The relative weathering contribution of colluvium depends on the area covered by regolith on the hillslopes. For mountains sparsely covered by regolith during cold periods, colluvium produces most of the simulated weathering flux for a large range of erosion parameters and precipitation rate patterns. In addition to other reservoirs such as deep fractured bedrock, colluvial deposits may help to maintain a substantial and constant weathering flux in rapidly uplifting mountains during cooling periods.

Spatial patterns of large natural fires in Sierra Nevada wilderness areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, B.M.; Kelly, M.; van Wagtendonk, J.W.; Stephens, S.L.

2007-01-01

The effects of fire on vegetation vary based on the properties and amount of existing biomass (or fuel) in a forest stand, weather conditions, and topography. Identifying controls over the spatial patterning of fire-induced vegetation change, or fire severity, is critical in understanding fire as a landscape scale process. We use gridded estimates of fire severity, derived from Landsat ETM+ imagery, to identify the biotic and abiotic factors contributing to the observed spatial patterns of fire severity in two large natural fires. Regression tree analysis indicates the importance of weather, topography, and vegetation variables in explaining fire severity patterns between the two fires. Relative humidity explained the highest proportion of total sum of squares throughout the Hoover fire (Yosemite National Park, 2001). The lowest fire severity corresponded with increased relative humidity. For the Williams fire (Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Parks, 2003) dominant vegetation type explains the highest proportion of sum of squares. Dominant vegetation was also important in determining fire severity throughout the Hoover fire. In both fires, forest stands that were dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) burned at highest severity, while red fir (Abies magnifica) stands corresponded with the lowest fire severities. There was evidence in both fires that lower wind speed corresponded with higher fire severity, although the highest fire severity in the Williams fire occurred during increased wind speed. Additionally, in the vegetation types that were associated with lower severity, burn severity was lowest when the time since last fire was fewer than 11 and 17 years for the Williams and Hoover fires, respectively. Based on the factors and patterns identified, managers can anticipate the effects of management ignited and naturally ignited fires at the forest stand and the landscape levels. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Whether the weather drives patterns of endemic amphibian chytridiomycosis: a pathogen proliferation approach.

PubMed

Murray, Kris A; Skerratt, Lee F; Garland, Stephen; Kriticos, Darren; McCallum, Hamish

2013-01-01

The pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis often exhibits strong seasonality in both prevalence and disease-associated mortality once it becomes endemic. One hypothesis that could explain this temporal pattern is that simple weather-driven pathogen proliferation (population growth) is a major driver of chytridiomycosis disease dynamics. Despite various elaborations of this hypothesis in the literature for explaining amphibian declines (e.g., the chytrid thermal-optimum hypothesis) it has not been formally tested on infection patterns in the wild. In this study we developed a simple process-based model to simulate the growth of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) under varying weather conditions to provide an a priori test of a weather-linked pathogen proliferation hypothesis for endemic chytridiomycosis. We found strong support for several predictions of the proliferation hypothesis when applied to our model species, Litoria pearsoniana, sampled across multiple sites and years: the weather-driven simulations of pathogen growth potential (represented as a growth index in the 30 days prior to sampling; GI30) were positively related to both the prevalence and intensity of Bd infections, which were themselves strongly and positively correlated. In addition, a machine-learning classifier achieved ~72% success in classifying positive qPCR results when utilising just three informative predictors 1) GI30, 2) frog body size and 3) rain on the day of sampling. Hence, while intrinsic traits of the individuals sampled (species, size, sex) and nuisance sampling variables (rainfall when sampling) influenced infection patterns obtained when sampling via qPCR, our results also strongly suggest that weather-linked pathogen proliferation plays a key role in the infection dynamics of endemic chytridiomycosis in our study system. Predictive applications of the model include surveillance design, outbreak preparedness and response, climate change scenario modelling and the interpretation of historical patterns of amphibian decline.

Weathering patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons contained in submerged Deepwater Horizon oil spill residues when re-exposed to sunlight.

PubMed

John, Gerald F; Han, Yuling; Clement, T Prabhakar

2016-12-15

The Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill event released a large amount of sweet crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). An unknown portion of this oil that arrived along the Alabama shoreline interacted with nearshore sediments and sank forming submerged oil mats (SOMs). A considerable amount of hydrocarbons, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), were trapped within these buried SOMs. Recent studies completed using the oil spill residues collected along the Alabama shoreline have shown that several PAHs, especially higher molecular weight PAHs (four or more aromatic rings), are slowly weathering compared to the weathering levels experienced by the oil when it was floating over the GOM. In this study we have hypothesized that the weathering rates of PAHs in SOMs have slowed down because the buried oil was isolated from direct exposure to sunlight, thus hindering the photodegradation pathway. We further hypothesized that re-exposing SOMs to sunlight can reactivate various weathering reactions. Also, SOMs contain 75-95% sand (by weight) and the entrapped sand could either block direct sunlight or form large oil agglomerates with very little exposed surface area; these processes could possibly interfere with weathering reactions. To test these hypotheses, we completed controlled experiments to study the weathering patterns of PAHs in a field recovered SOM sample after re-exposing it to sunlight. Our experimental results show that the weathering levels of several higher molecular weight PAHs have slowed down primarily due to the absence of sunlight-induced photodegradation reactions. The data also show that sand particles in SOM material could potentially interfere with photodegradation reactions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lydersen, Jamie M; Collins, Brandon M.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Matchett, John R.; Shive, Kristen L.; Povak, Nicholas A.; Kane, Van R.; Smith, Douglas F.

2017-01-01

Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western U.S. Given this increase there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels treatments (including wildfire), fire weather, vegetation and water balance on fire severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We did this at three different spatial scales to investigate whether the influences on fire severity changed across scales. Both fuels treatments and previous low to moderate severity wildfire reduced the prevalence of high severity fire. In general, areas without recent fuels treatments and areas that previously burned at high severity tended to have a greater proportion of high severity fire in the Rim Fire. Areas treated with prescribed fire, especially when combined with thinning, had the lowest proportions of high severity. Proportion of the landscape burned at high severity was most strongly influenced by fire weather and proportional area previously treated for fuels or burned by low to moderate severity wildfire. The proportion treated needed to effectively reduce the amount of high fire severity fire varied by spatial scale of analysis, with smaller spatial scales requiring a greater proportion treated to see an effect on fire severity. When moderate and high severity fire encountered a previously treated area, fire severity was significantly reduced in the treated area relative to the adjacent untreated area. Our results show that fuels treatments and low to moderate severity wildfire can reduce fire severity in a subsequent wildfire, even when burning under fire growth conditions. These results serve as further evidence that both fuels treatments and lower severity wildfire can increase forest resilience.

Assessment of CLIGEN precipitation and storm pattern generation under four precipitation depth categories in China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

CLIGEN (CLImate GENerator) is a widely used stochastic weather generator to simulate continuous daily precipitation and storm pattern information for hydrological and soil erosion models. Although CLIGEN has been tested in several regions in the world, thoroughly assessment before applying it to Chi...

A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Caballero, Rodrigo; Faranda, Davide

2017-04-01

Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We show that simple dynamical systems metrics can be used to identify sets of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns with similar spatial structure and temporal evolution on time scales of several days to a week. In regions where these patterns favor extreme weather, they afford a particularly good predictability of the extremes. We specifically test this technique on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, where it provides predictability of large-scale wintertime surface temperature extremes in Europe up to 1 week in advance.

Impact of the 1997-1998 El-Nino of Regional Hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lakshmi, Venkataraman; Susskind, Joel

1998-01-01

The 1997-1998 El-Nino brought with it a range of severe local-regional hydrological phenomena. Record high temperatures and extremely dry soil conditions in Texas is an example of this regional effect. The El-Nino and La-Nina change the continental weather patterns considerably. However, connections between continental weather anomalies and regional or local anomalies have not been established to a high degree of confidence. There are several unique features of the recent El-Nino and La-Nina. Due to the recognition of the present El-Nino well in advance, there have been several coupled model studies on global and regional scales. Secondly, there is a near real-time monitoring of the situation using data from satellite sensors, namely, SeaWIFS, TOVS, AVHRR and GOES. Both observations and modeling characterize the large scale features of this El-Nino fairly well. However the connection to the local and regional hydrological phenomenon still needs to be made. This paper will use satellite observations and analysis data to establish a relation between local hydrology and large scale weather patterns. This will be the first step in using satellite data to perform regional hydrological simulations of surface temperature and soil moisture.

Emergent insects, pathogens and drought shape changing patterns in oak decline in North America and Europe

Treesearch

Laurel J. Haavik; Sharon A. Billings; James M. Guldin; Fred M. Stephen

2015-01-01

Forest declines are well-studied phenomena. However, recent patterns suggest that the traditional sequence of events and factors involved in forest decline are changing. Several reports in recent decades involve emergent mortality agents, many of which are native insects and diseases. In addition, changing climate and weather patterns place increasing emphasis on root...

Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Britch, Seth C.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Reynolds, Curt A.; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

2014-01-01

We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused,10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

Recent weather extremes and impacts on agricultural production and vector-borne disease outbreak patterns.

PubMed

Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L; Britch, Seth C; Tucker, Compton J; Pak, Edwin W; Reynolds, Curt A; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J

2014-01-01

We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

Enhanced seasonal predictability of the summer mean temperature in Central Europe favored by new dominant weather patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, P.

2018-04-01

In this study two complementary approaches have been combined to estimate the reliability of the data-driven seasonal predictability of the meteorological summer mean temperature (T_{JJA}) over Europe. The developed model is based on linear regressions and uses early season predictors to estimate the target value T_{JJA}. We found for the Potsdam (Germany) climate station that the monthly standard deviations (σ) from January to April and the temperature mean ( m) in April are good predictors to describe T_{JJA} after 1990. However, before 1990 the model failed. The core region where this model works is the north-eastern part of Central Europe. We also analyzed long-term trends of monthly Hess/Brezowsky weather types as possible causes of the dynamical changes. In spring, a significant increase of the occurrences for two opposite weather patterns was found: Zonal Ridge across Central Europe (BM) and Trough over Central Europe (TRM). Both currently make up about 30% of the total alternating weather systems over Europe. Other weather types are predominantly decreasing or their trends are not significant. Thus, the predictability may be attributed to these two weather types where the difference between the two Z500 composite patterns is large. This also applies to the north-eastern part of Central Europe. Finally, the detected enhanced seasonal predictability over Europe is alarming, because severe side effects may occur. One of these are more frequent climate extremes in summer half-year.

STS-48 case study, 17-18 September 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atchison, Michael K.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Taylor, Gregory E.; Warburton, John D.

1992-01-01

Weather conditions are documented prior to and during the STS-48 attempted landing at the Shuttle Landing Facility at KSC on 18 Sep. 1991. Trends in meteorological data during 17 and 18 Sep. are examined along with their relationship to the overall weather pattern observed over the KSC region. The primary weather problems during the landing were the formation of showers within 10 nautical miles of the SLF and any ceiling less than 10,000 ft. The controlling factor of the weather was a high pressure ridge that was gradually weakening and moving off the northeast. As this occurred, the low level flow was switching from a easterly to a southeasterly direction. This change in wind direction was reflected by shower movement on the McGill radar and by trends in rawinsondes launched from the Cape. These rawinsondes also indicated that the boundary layers was becoming slightly more unstable several hours prior to the attempted landing which may have aided in the development of clouds and small isolated showers. Also, analyses of Doppler wind profiler and rawinsondes indicated a possible midlevel disturbance in the easterly flow pattern near 700 mb. This weak disturbance may have made the atmosphere a little more unstable early on 18 Sep. Finally, embedded within the southeasterly flow were several bands of low clouds. These clouds were rather difficult to see in unenhanced IR satellite imagery available to forecasters in real time. However, post analyses using several different enhancement curves, adapted from NESDIS, clearly reveals the presence of these clouds.

Extreme weather events and environmental contamination are associated with case-clusters of melioidosis in the Northern Territory of Australia.

PubMed

Cheng, Allen C; Jacups, Susan P; Gal, Daniel; Mayo, Mark; Currie, Bart J

2006-04-01

Melioidosis, the infection due to the environmental organism Burkholderia pseudomallei, is endemic to northern Australia and South East Asia. It is associated with exposure to mud and pooled surface water, but environmental determinants of this disease are poorly understood. We defined case-clusters in northern Australia, determined their contribution to the observed rate of melioidosis, and explored clinical features and associated environmental factors. Using geographical information systems data, we examined clustering of melioidosis cases in time and geographical space in the Top End of the Northern Territory of Australia between 1990 and 2002 using a scan statistic. DNA macrorestriction analysis, resolved by pulsed field gel electrophoresis, was performed on isolates from patients. We defined five case-clusters involving 27 patients that occurred within 7-28 days and/or a radius of 100-300 km. Clustered cases were associated with extreme weather events or environmental contamination; no difference in the clinical pattern of disease was noted from other patients not involved in clusters. Isolates from patients linked to environmental contamination were caused by isolates with similar DNA macrorestriction patterns, but isolates from patients linked to severe weather events had more diverse DNA macrorestriction patterns. Case-clusters of melioidosis where isolates exhibit diverse DNA macrorestriction patterns in our region are linked to extreme weather events and outbreaks where isolates are predominantly of the same DNA macrorestriction pattern are linked with contamination of an environmental source.

A predictive model for spotted wilt epidemics in peanut based on local weather conditions and the tomato spotted wilt virus risk index.

PubMed

Olatinwo, R O; Paz, J O; Brown, S L; Kemerait, R C; Culbreath, A K; Beasley, J P; Hoogenboom, G

2008-10-01

Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV), a member of the genus Tospovirus (family Bunyaviridae), is an important plant virus that causes severe damage to peanut (Arachis hypogaea) in the southeastern United States. Disease severity has been extremely variable in individual fields in Georgia, due to several factors including variability in weather patterns. A TSWV risk index has been developed by the University of Georgia to aid peanut growers with the assessment and avoidance of high risk situations. This study was conducted to examine the relationship between weather parameters and spotted wilt severity in peanut, and to develop a predictive model that integrates localized weather information into the risk index. On-farm survey data collected during 1999, 2002, 2004, and 2005 growing seasons, and derived weather variables during the same years were analyzed using nonlinear and multiple regression analyses. Meteorological data were obtained from the Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network. The best model explained 61% of the variation in spotted wilt severity (square root transformed) as a function of the interactions between the TSWV risk index, the average daily temperature in April (TavA), the average daily minimum temperature between March and April (TminMA), the accumulated rainfall in March (RainfallM), the accumulated rainfall in April (RainfallA), the number of rain days in April (RainDayA), evapotranspiration in April (EVTA), and the number of days from 1 January to the planting date (JulianDay). Integrating this weather-based model with the TSWV risk index may help peanut growers more effectively manage tomato spotted wilt disease.

Evaluation of Lightning Jumps as a Predictor of Severe Weather in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eck, Pamela

Severe weather events in the northeastern United States can be challenging to forecast, given how the evolution of deep convection can be influenced by complex terrain and the lack of quality observations in complex terrain. To supplement existing observations, this study explores using lightning to forecast severe convection in areas of complex terrain in the northeastern United States. A sudden increase in lightning flash rate by two standard deviations (2sigma), also known as a lightning jump, may be indicative of a strengthening updraft and an increased probability of severe weather. This study assesses the value of using lightning jumps to forecast severe weather during July 2015 in the northeastern United States. Total lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) is used to calculate lightning jumps using a 2sigma lightning jump algorithm with a minimum threshold of 5 flashes min-1. Lightning jumps are used to predict the occurrence of severe weather, as given by whether a Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather report occurred 45 min after a lightning jump in the same cell. Results indicate a high probability of detection (POD; 85%) and a high false alarm rate (FAR; 89%), suggesting that lightning jumps occur in sub-severe storms. The interaction between convection and complex terrain results in a locally enhanced updraft and an increased probability of severe weather. Thus, it is hypothesized that conditioning on an upslope variable may reduce the FAR. A random forest is introduced to objectively combine upslope flow, calculated using data from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), flash rate (FR), and flash rate changes with time (DFRDT). The random forest, a machine-learning algorithm, uses pattern recognition to predict a severe or non-severe classification based on the predictors. In addition to upslope flow, FR, and DFRDT, Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Level III radar data was also included as a predictor to compare its value to that of lightning data. Results indicate a high POD (82%), a low FAR (28%), and that lightning data and upslope flow data account for 39% and 32% of variable importance, respectively.

Whether the Weather Drives Patterns of Endemic Amphibian Chytridiomycosis: A Pathogen Proliferation Approach

PubMed Central

Murray, Kris A.; Skerratt, Lee F.; Garland, Stephen; Kriticos, Darren; McCallum, Hamish

2013-01-01

The pandemic amphibian disease chytridiomycosis often exhibits strong seasonality in both prevalence and disease-associated mortality once it becomes endemic. One hypothesis that could explain this temporal pattern is that simple weather-driven pathogen proliferation (population growth) is a major driver of chytridiomycosis disease dynamics. Despite various elaborations of this hypothesis in the literature for explaining amphibian declines (e.g., the chytrid thermal-optimum hypothesis) it has not been formally tested on infection patterns in the wild. In this study we developed a simple process-based model to simulate the growth of the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) under varying weather conditions to provide an a priori test of a weather-linked pathogen proliferation hypothesis for endemic chytridiomycosis. We found strong support for several predictions of the proliferation hypothesis when applied to our model species, Litoria pearsoniana, sampled across multiple sites and years: the weather-driven simulations of pathogen growth potential (represented as a growth index in the 30 days prior to sampling; GI30) were positively related to both the prevalence and intensity of Bd infections, which were themselves strongly and positively correlated. In addition, a machine-learning classifier achieved ∼72% success in classifying positive qPCR results when utilising just three informative predictors 1) GI30, 2) frog body size and 3) rain on the day of sampling. Hence, while intrinsic traits of the individuals sampled (species, size, sex) and nuisance sampling variables (rainfall when sampling) influenced infection patterns obtained when sampling via qPCR, our results also strongly suggest that weather-linked pathogen proliferation plays a key role in the infection dynamics of endemic chytridiomycosis in our study system. Predictive applications of the model include surveillance design, outbreak preparedness and response, climate change scenario modelling and the interpretation of historical patterns of amphibian decline. PMID:23613783

El Niño and human health.

PubMed Central

Kovats, R. S.

2000-01-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the best known example of quasi-periodic natural climate variability on the interannual time scale. It comprises changes in sea temperature in the Pacific Ocean (El Niño) and changes in atmospheric pressure across the Pacific Basin (the Southern Oscillation), together with resultant effects on world weather. El Niño events occur at intervals of 2-7 years. In certain countries around the Pacific and beyond, El Niño is associated with extreme weather conditions that can cause floods and drought. Globally it is linked to an increased impact of natural disasters. There is evidence that ENSO is associated with a heightened risk of certain vector-borne diseases in specific geographical areas where weather patterns are linked with the ENSO cycle and disease control is limited. This is particularly true for malaria, but associations are also suggested in respect of epidemics of other mosquito-borne and rodent-borne diseases that can be triggered by extreme weather conditions. Seasonal climate forecasts, predicting the likelihood of weather patterns several months in advance, can be used to provide early indicators of epidemic risk, particularly for malaria. Interdisciplinary research and cooperation are required in order to reduce vulnerability to climate variability and weather extremes. PMID:11019461

Identifying Patterns in the Weather of Europe for Source Term Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klampanos, Iraklis; Pappas, Charalambos; Andronopoulos, Spyros; Davvetas, Athanasios; Ikonomopoulos, Andreas; Karkaletsis, Vangelis

2017-04-01

During emergencies that involve the release of hazardous substances into the atmosphere the potential health effects on the human population and the environment are of primary concern. Such events have occurred in the past, most notably involving radioactive and toxic substances. Examples of radioactive release events include the Chernobyl accident in 1986, as well as the more recent Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. Often, the release of dangerous substances in the atmosphere is detected at locations different from the release origin. The objective of this work is the rapid estimation of such unknown sources shortly after the detection of dangerous substances in the atmosphere, with an initial focus on nuclear or radiological releases. Typically, after the detection of a radioactive substance in the atmosphere indicating the occurrence of an unknown release, the source location is estimated via inverse modelling. However, depending on factors such as the spatial resolution desired, traditional inverse modelling can be computationally time-consuming. This is especially true for cases where complex topography and weather conditions are involved and can therefore be problematic when timing is critical. Making use of machine learning techniques and the Big Data Europe platform1, our approach moves the bulk of the computation before any such event taking place, therefore allowing for rapid initial, albeit rougher, estimations regarding the source location. Our proposed approach is based on the automatic identification of weather patterns within the European continent. Identifying weather patterns has long been an active research field. Our case is differentiated by the fact that it focuses on plume dispersion patterns and these meteorological variables that affect dispersion the most. For a small set of recurrent weather patterns, we simulate hypothetical radioactive releases from a pre-known set of nuclear reactor locations and for different substance and temporal parameters, using the Java flavour of the Euratom-supported funded RODOS (Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support) system2 for off-site emergency management after nuclear accidents. Once dispersions have been pre-computed, and immediately after a detected release, the currently observed weather can be matched to the derived weather classes. Since each weather class corresponds to a different plume dispersion pattern, the closest classes to an unseen weather sample, say the current weather, are the most likely to lead us to the release origin. In addressing the above problem, we make use of multiple years of weather reanalysis data from NCAR's version3 of ECMWF's ERA-Interim4. To derive useful weather classes, we evaluate several algorithms, ranging from straightforward unsupervised clustering to more complex methods, including relevant neural-network algorithms, on multiple variables. Variables and feature sets, clustering algorithms and evaluation approaches are all dealt with and presented experimentally. The Big Data Europe platform allows for the implementation and execution of the above tasks in the cloud, in a scalable, robust and efficient way.

Factors influencing fire severity under moderate burning conditions in the Klamath Mountains, northern California, USA

Treesearch

Becky L. Estes; Eric E. Knapp; Carl N. Skinner; Jay D. Miller; Haiganoush K. Preisler

2017-01-01

Topography, weather, and fuels are known factors driving fire behavior, but the degree to which each contributes to the spatial pattern of fire severity under different conditions remains poorly understood. The variability in severity within the boundaries of the 2006 wildfires that burned in the Klamath Mountains, northern California, along with data on burn...

Recent Weather Extremes and Impacts on Agricultural Production and Vector-Borne Disease Outbreak Patterns

PubMed Central

Anyamba, Assaf; Small, Jennifer L.; Britch, Seth C.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Reynolds, Curt A.; Crutchfield, James; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

2014-01-01

We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010–2012 period. We utilized 2000–2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA's satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations. PMID:24658301

Climate change, extreme weather events, air pollution and respiratory health in Europe.

PubMed

De Sario, M; Katsouyanni, K; Michelozzi, P

2013-09-01

Due to climate change and other factors, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health both independently and synergistically with weather conditions; climate scenarios show Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions. European studies on heatwave episodes have consistently shown a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures, while the potential weather-air pollution interaction during wildfires and dust storms is unknown. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change, and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens, especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known; the health consequences vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases, and premature death. These multidimensional climate-pollution-allergen effects need to be taken into account in estimating both climate and air pollution-related respiratory effects, in order to set up adequate policy and public health actions to face both the current and future climate and pollution challenges.

Timing of seasonal migration in mule deer: effects of climate, plant phenology, and life-history characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monteith, Kevin L.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Stephenson, Thomas R.; Pierce, Beck M.; Conner, Mary M.; Klaver, Robert W.; Bowyer, R. Terry

2011-01-01

Phenological events of plants and animals are sensitive to climatic processes. Migration is a life-history event exhibited by most large herbivores living in seasonal environments, and is thought to occur in response to dynamics of forage and weather. Decisions regarding when to migrate, however, may be affected by differences in life-history characteristics of individuals. Long-term and intensive study of a population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, allowed us to document patterns of migration during 11 years that encompassed a wide array of environmental conditions. We used two new techniques to properly account for interval-censored data and disentangle effects of broad-scale climate, local weather patterns, and plant phenology on seasonal patterns of migration, while incorporating effects of individual life-history characteristics. Timing of autumn migration varied substantially among individual deer, but was associated with the severity of winter weather, and in particular, snow depth and cold temperatures. Migratory responses to winter weather, however, were affected by age, nutritional condition, and summer residency of individual females. Old females and those in good nutritional condition risked encountering severe weather by delaying autumn migration, and were thus risk-prone with respect to the potential loss of foraging opportunities in deep snow compared with young females and those in poor nutritional condition. Females that summered on the west side of the crest of the Sierra Nevada delayed autumn migration relative to east-side females, which supports the influence of the local environment on timing of migration. In contrast, timing of spring migration was unrelated to individual life-history characteristics, was nearly twice as synchronous as autumn migration, differed among years, was related to the southern oscillation index, and was influenced by absolute snow depth and advancing phenology of plants. Plasticity in timing of migration in response to climatic conditions and plant phenology may be an adaptive behavioral strategy, which should reduce the detrimental effects of trophic mismatches between resources and other life-history events of large herbivores. Failure to consider effects of nutrition and other life-history traits may cloud interpretation of phenological patterns of mammals and conceal relationships associated with climate change.

Patterns of Storm Injury and Tree Response

Treesearch

Kevin Smith; Walter Shortle; Kenneth Dudzik

2001-01-01

The ice storm of January 1998 in the northeastern United States and adjacent Canada was an extreme example of severe weather that injures trees every year. Broken branches, split branch forks, and snapped stems are all examples of storm injury.

A methodology to leverage cross-sectional accelerometry to capture weather's influence in active living research.

PubMed

Katapally, Tarun R; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2016-06-27

While active living interventions focus on modifying urban design and built environment, weather variation, a phenomenon that perennially interacts with these environmental factors, is consistently underexplored. This study's objective is to develop a methodology to link weather data with existing cross-sectional accelerometry data in capturing weather variation. Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear neighbourhoods. Thereafter, 137 Actical accelerometers were used to derive moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) data from 455 children in 25 sequential one-week cycles between April and June, 2010. This sequential deployment was necessary to overcome the difference in the ratio between the sample size and the number of accelerometers. A data linkage methodology was developed, where each accelerometry cycle was matched with localized (Saskatoon-specific) weather patterns derived from Environment Canada. Statistical analyses were conducted to depict the influence of urban design on MVPA and SB after factoring in localized weather patterns. Integration of cross-sectional accelerometry with localized weather patterns allowed the capture of weather variation during a single seasonal transition. Overall, during the transition from spring to summer in Saskatoon, MVPA increased and SB decreased during warmer days. After factoring in localized weather, a recurring observation was that children residing in fractured grid-pattern neighbourhoods accumulated significantly lower MVPA and higher SB. The proposed methodology could be utilized to link globally available cross-sectional accelerometry data with place-specific weather data to understand how built and social environmental factors interact with varying weather patterns in influencing active living.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts for Military Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C.

2013-05-01

Arid and semi-arid regions are experiencing some of the most adverse impacts of climate change with increased heat waves, droughts, and extreme weather. These events will likely exacerbate socioeconomic and political instabilities in regions where the United States has vital strategic interests and ongoing military operations. The Southwest U.S. is strategically important in that it houses some of the most spatially expansive and important military installations in the country. The majority of severe weather events in the Southwest occur in association with the North American monsoon system (NAMS), and current observational record has shown a 'wet gets wetter and dry gets drier' global monsoon precipitation trend. We seek to evaluate the warm season extreme weather projection in the Southwest U.S., and how the extremes can affect Department of Defense (DoD) military facilities in that region. A baseline methodology is being developed to select extreme warm season weather events based on historical sounding data and moisture surge observations from Gulf of California. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)-type high resolution simulations will be performed for the extreme events identified from Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations initiated from IPCC GCM and NCAR Reanalysis data in both climate control and climate change periods. The magnitude in extreme event changes will be analyzed, and the synoptic forcing patterns of the future severe thunderstorms will provide a guide line to assess if the military installations in the Southwest will become more or less susceptible to severe weather in the future.

Thresholds for soil cover and weathering in mountainous landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, Jean; Benjaram, Sarah

2017-04-01

The patterns of soil formation, weathering, and erosion shape terrestrial landscapes, forming the foundation on which ecosystems and human civilizations are built. Several fundamental questions remain regarding how soils evolve, especially in mountainous landscapes where tectonics and climate exert complex forcings on erosion and weathering. In these systems, quantifying weathering is made difficult by the fact that soil cover is discontinuous and heterogeneous. Therefore, studies that attempt to measure soil weathering in such systems face a difficult bias in measurements towards more weathered portions of the landscape. Here, we explore current understanding of erosion-weathering feedbacks, and present new data from mountain systems in Western Montana. Using field mapping, analysis of LiDAR and remotely sensed land-cover data, and soil chemical analyses, we measure soil cover and surface weathering intensity across multiple spatial scales, from the individual soil profile to a landscape perspective. Our data suggest that local emergence of bedrock cover at the surface marks a landscape transition from supply to kinetic weathering regimes in these systems, and highlights the importance of characterizing complex critical zone architecture in mountain landscapes. This work provides new insight into how landscape morphology and erosion may drive important thresholds for soil cover and weathering.

A diffusion climatology for Cape Canaveral, Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siler, R. K.

1980-01-01

The problem of toxic effluent released by a space shuttle launch on local plant and animal life is discussed. Based on several successive years of data, nine basic weather patterns were identified, and the probabilities of pattern occurrence, of onshore/alongshore cloud transport, of precipitation accompanying the latter, and of ground-level concentrations of hydrogen chloride were determined. Diurnal variations for the patterns were also investigated. Sketches showing probable movement of launch cloud exhaust and isobaric maps are presented.

Post-fire vegetation and fuel development influences fire severity patterns in reburns.

PubMed

Coppoletta, Michelle; Merriam, Kyle E; Collins, Brandon M

2016-04-01

In areas where fire regimes and forest structure have been dramatically altered, there is increasing concern that contemporary fires have the potential to set forests on a positive feedback trajectory with successive reburns, one in which extensive stand-replacing fire could promote more stand-replacing fire. Our study utilized an extensive set of field plots established following four fires that occurred between 2000 and 2010 in the northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA that were subsequently reburned in 2012. The information obtained from these field plots allowed for a unique set of analyses investigating the effect of vegetation, fuels, topography, fire weather, and forest management on reburn severity. We also examined the influence of initial fire severity and time since initial fire on influential predictors of reburn severity. Our results suggest that high- to moderate-severity fire in the initial fires led to an increase in standing snags and shrub vegetation, which in combination with severe fire weather promoted high-severity fire effects in the subsequent reburn. Although fire behavior is largely driven by weather, our study demonstrates that post-fire vegetation composition and structure are also important drivers of reburn severity. In the face of changing climatic regimes and increases in extreme fire weather, these results may provide managers with options to create more fire-resilient ecosystems. In areas where frequent high-severity fire is undesirable, management activities such as thinning, prescribed fire, or managed wildland fire can be used to moderate fire behavior not only prior to initial fires, but also before subsequent reburns.

Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Throughput

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yao

2017-01-01

Time-based flow management provides arrival aircraft schedules based on arrival airport conditions, airport capacity, required spacing, and weather conditions. In order to meet a scheduled time at which arrival aircraft can cross an airport arrival meter fix prior to entering the airport terminal airspace, air traffic controllers make regulations on air traffic. Severe weather may create an airport arrival bottleneck if one or more of airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by the weather and the arrival demand has not been reduced accordingly. Under these conditions, aircraft are frequently being put in holding patterns until they can be rerouted. A model that predicts the weather impacted meter fix throughput may help air traffic controllers direct arrival flows into the airport more efficiently, minimizing arrival meter fix congestion. This paper presents an analysis of air traffic flows across arrival meter fixes at the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). Several scenarios of weather impacted EWR arrival fix flows are described. Furthermore, multiple linear regression and regression tree ensemble learning approaches for translating multiple sector Weather Impacted Traffic Indexes (WITI) to EWR arrival meter fix throughputs are examined. These weather translation models are developed and validated using the EWR arrival flight and weather data for the period of April-September in 2014. This study also compares the performance of the regression tree ensemble with traditional multiple linear regression models for estimating the weather impacted throughputs at each of the EWR arrival meter fixes. For all meter fixes investigated, the results from the regression tree ensemble weather translation models show a stronger correlation between model outputs and observed meter fix throughputs than that produced from multiple linear regression method.

Chemical weathering and loess inputs to soils in New Zealand's Wairarapa region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukens, C. E.; Norton, K. P.

2017-12-01

Geochemical mass-balance approaches are commonly used in soils to evaluate patterns in chemical weathering. In conjuction with cosmogenic nuclide measurements of total denudation or soil production, mass-balance approaches have been used to constrain rates of chemical weathering across a variety of landscapes. Here we present geochemical data from a series of soil pits in the Wairarapa region of New Zealand's North Island, where rates of soil production equal rates of total denudation measured using 10Be at sites nearby (i.e., the landscape is in steady state). Soil density increases with depth, consistent with steady weathering over the average soil residence time. However, soil geochemistry indicates very little chemical weathering has occurred, and immobile elements (Zr, Ti, and V) are depleted in soils relative to bedrock. This is contrary to the expected observation, wherein immobile elements should be enriched in soils relative to parent bedrock as weathered mobile solutes are progressively removed from soil. Our geochemical measurements suggest contributions from an exernal source, which has a different chemical composition than the underlying bedrock. We hypothesize that loess constitutes a substantial influx of additional material, and use a mixing model to predict geochemical patterns within soil columns. We evaluate the relative contributions of several likely loess sources, including tephra from the nearby Taupo Volcanic Center, local loess deposits formed during glacial-interglacial transitions, and far-travelling Australian dust. Using an established mass-balance approach with multiple immobile elements, we calculate the fraction of mass in soils contributed by loess to be as much as 25%. Combined with 10Be-derived estimates of soil production, we calculate average loess fluxes up to 320 t/km2/yr, which are consistent with previous estimates of loess acculumation over the late Holocene. Accounting for loess input, we find that chemical weathering fluxes are remarkably low in these soils, which sit atop fractured graywacke that likely contributes very few weatherable primary minerals. The significant loess flux in this region may have important implications for estimates of total denudation and soil production, and must be accounted for to determine patterns in chemical weathering.

Microprocessors as a tool in determining correlation between sferics and tornado genesis. [Sferics = atmospheric electromagnetic radiation in the kilohertz to UHF range

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Witte, D.R.

1978-11-01

It is believed that sferics, a word that stands for atmospheric electromagnetic radiation, can be correlated to the genesis of tornadoes and severe weather. Sferics are generated by lightning and other atmospheric disturbances that are not yet entirely understood. The recording and analysis of the patterns in which sferic events occur, it is hoped, will lead to accurate real-time prediction of tornadoes and other severe weather. Collection of this data becomes cumbersome when correlation between at least two stations is necessary for triangulation; however, the advent of microprocessors has made the task of data collection and massaging inexpensive and manageable.

Physical Patterns Associated with 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Fernanda; Salem, Thomas

2012-02-01

The National Weather Service office in Memphis, Tennessee has aimed their efforts to improve severe tornado forecasting. Everything is not known about tornadogenesis, but one thing is: tornadoes tend to form within supercell thunderstorms. Hence, 27 April 2011 and 25 May 2011 were days when a Tornado Outbreak was expected to arise. Although 22 tornadoes struck the region on 27 April 2011, only 1 impacted the area on 25 May 2011. In order to understand both events, comparisons of their physical features were made. These parameters were studied using the Weather Event Simulator system and the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction database. This research concentrated on the Surface Frontal Analysis, NAM40 700mb Dew-Points, NAM80 250mb Wind Speed and NAM20 500mb Vorticity images as well as 0-6 km Shear, MUCAPE and VGP mesoscale patterns. As result of this research a Dry-Line ahead of a Cold Front, Dew-points 5C and higher, and high Vorticity values^ were synoptic patterns that influenced to the formation of supercell tornadoes. Finally, MUCAPE and VGP favored the possibility of tornadoes occurrence on 25 May 2011, but shear was the factor that made 27 April 2011 a day for a Tornado Outbreak weather event.

Severe haze in Hangzhou in winter 2013/14 and associated meteorological anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yini; Zhu, Zhiwei; Luo, Ling; Zhang, Jiwei

2018-03-01

Aerosol pollution over eastern China has worsened considerably in recent years, resulting in heavy haze weather with low visibility and poor air quality. The present study investigates the characteristics of haze weather in Hangzhou city, and aims to unravel the meteorological anomalies associated with the heavy haze that occurred over Hangzhou in winter 2013/14. On the interannual timescale, because of the neutral condition of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies during winter 2013/14, no significant circulation and convection anomalies were induced over East Asia, leading to a stable atmospheric condition favorable for haze weather in Hangzhou. Besides, the shift of the polar vortex, caused by changes in surface temperature and ice cover at high latitudes, induced a barotropic anomalous circulation dipole pattern. The southerly anomaly associated with this anomalous dipole pattern hindered the transportation of cold/clear air mass from Siberia to central-eastern China, leading to abnormal haze during winter 2013/14 in Hangzhou. On the intraseasonal timescale, an eastward-propagating mid-latitude Rossby wave train altered the meridional wind anomaly over East Asia, causing the intraseasonal variability of haze weather during 2013/14 in Hangzhou.

Application of Lidar and other profiling techniques to study the impact that Severe weather hazards have on the New York City built environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arend, Mark; Campmier, Mark; Fernandez, Aris; Moshary, Fred

2018-04-01

The complexity of urban boundary layer dynamics poses challenges to those responsible for the design and regulation of buildings and structures in the urban environment. Lidar systems in the New York City Metropolitan region have been used extensively to study urban boundary layer dynamics. These systems, in conjunction with other sensing platforms can provide an observatory to perform research and analysis of turbulent and inclement weather patterns of interest to developers and agencies.

A review of the effect of traffic and weather characteristics on road safety.

PubMed

Theofilatos, Athanasios; Yannis, George

2014-11-01

Taking into consideration the increasing availability of real-time traffic data and stimulated by the importance of proactive safety management, this paper attempts to provide a review of the effect of traffic and weather characteristics on road safety, identify the gaps and discuss the needs for further research. Despite the existence of generally mixed evidence on the effect of traffic parameters, a few patterns can be observed. For instance, traffic flow seems to have a non-linear relationship with accident rates, even though some studies suggest linear relationship with accidents. On the other hand, increased speed limits have found to have a straightforward positive relationship with accident occurrence. Regarding weather effects, the effect of precipitation is quite consistent and leads generally to increased accident frequency but does not seem to have a consistent effect on severity. The impact of other weather parameters on safety, such as visibility, wind speed and temperature is not found straightforward so far. The increasing use of real-time data not only makes easier to identify the safety impact of traffic and weather characteristics, but most importantly makes possible the identification of their combined effect. The more systematic use of these real-time data may address several of the research gaps identified in this research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

2011-01-01

This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Haile, Menghestab

2005-11-29

Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Niño events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term, impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Niño, the implications of weather patterns for the food security and vulnerability of rural communities have become more predictable and can be monitored effectively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how current advances in the understanding of climate variability, weather patterns and food security could contribute to improved humanitarian decision-making. The paper will propose new approaches for triggering humanitarian responses to weather-induced food crises.

Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Haile, Menghestab

2005-01-01

Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Niño events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Niño, the implications of weather patterns for the food security and vulnerability of rural communities have become more predictable and can be monitored effectively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how current advances in the understanding of climate variability, weather patterns and food security could contribute to improved humanitarian decision-making. The paper will propose new approaches for triggering humanitarian responses to weather-induced food crises. PMID:16433102

Will climate change affect weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin M.; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Nied, Manuela

2013-04-01

This study investigates the effects of anthropogenic climate change on weather types associated with flooding in the Elbe river basin. The study is based on an ensemble of 3 simulations with the ECHAM5 MPIOM coupled model forced with historical and SRES A1B greenhouse gas concentrations. Relevant weather types, occuring in association with recent flood events, are identified in the ERA40 reanalysis data set. The weather types are classified with the SANDRA cluster algorithm. Distributions of tropospheric humidity content, 500 hPa geopotential height and 500 hPa temperature over Europe are taken as input parameters. 8 (out of 40) weather types are found to be associated with flooding events in the Elbe river basin. The majority of these (6) typically occur during winter, while 2 are warm season patterns. Downscaling reveals characteristic precipitation anomalies associated with the individual patterns. The 8 flood relevant weather types are then identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. The effect of climate change on these patterns is investigated by comparing the last 30 years of the previous century to the last 30 years of the 21st century. According to the model the frequency of most patterns will not change. 5 patterns may experience a statistically significant increase in the mean precipitation over the catchment area and 4 patterns an increase in extreme precipitation. Persistence may slightly decrease for 2 patterns and remain unchanged for the others. Overall, this indicates a moderate increase in the risk for Elbe river flooding, related to changes in the weather patterns, in the coming decades.

Evaluating climate models: Should we use weather or climate observations?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oglesby, Robert J; Erickson III, David J

2009-12-01

Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their abilitymore » to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.« less

On the dual nature of lichen-induced rock surface weathering in contrasting micro-environments.

PubMed

Marques, Joana; Gonçalves, João; Oliveira, Cláudia; Favero-Longo, Sergio E; Paz-Bermúdez, Graciela; Almeida, Rubim; Prieto, Beatriz

2016-10-01

Contradictory evidence from biogeomorphological studies has increased the debate on the extent of lichen contribution to differential rock surface weathering in both natural and cultural settings. This study, undertaken in Côa Valley Archaeological Park, aimed at evaluating the effect of rock surface orientation on the weathering ability of dominant lichens. Hyphal penetration and oxalate formation at the lichen-rock interface were evaluated as proxies of physical and chemical weathering, respectively. A new protocol of pixel-based supervised image classification for the analysis of periodic acid-Schiff stained cross-sections of colonized schist revealed that hyphal spread of individual species was not influenced by surface orientation. However, hyphal spread was significantly higher in species dominant on northwest facing surfaces. An apparently opposite effect was noticed in terms of calcium oxalate accumulation at the lichen-rock interface; it was detected by Raman spectroscopy and complementary X-ray microdiffraction on southeast facing surfaces only. These results suggest that lichen-induced physical weathering may be most severe on northwest facing surfaces by means of an indirect effect of surface orientation on species abundance, and thus dependent on the species, whereas lichen-induced chemical weathering is apparently higher on southeast facing surfaces and dependent on micro-environmental conditions, giving only weak support to the hypothesis that lichens are responsible for the currently observed pattern of rock-art distribution in Côa Valley. Assumptions about the drivers of open-air rock-art distribution patterns elsewhere should also consider the micro-environmental controls of lichen-induced weathering, to avoid biased measures of lichen contribution to rock-art deterioration. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Severe Weather in a Changing Climate: Getting to Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Janssen, E.; Kunkel, K.

2011-12-01

Analyses of observation records from U.S. weather stations indicate there is an increasing trend over recent decades in certain types of severe weather, especially large precipitation events. Widespread changes in temperature extremes have been observed over the last 50 years. In particular, the number of heat waves globally (and some parts of the U.S.) has increased, and there have been widespread increases in the numbers of warm nights. Also, analyses show that we are now breaking twice as many heat records as cold records in the U.S. Since 1957, there has been an increase in the number of historically top 1% of heavy precipitation events across the U.S. Our new analyses of the repeat or reoccurrence frequencies of large precipitation storms are showing that such events are occurring more often than in the past. The pattern of precipitation change is one of increases generally at higher northern latitudes and drying in the tropics and subtropics over land. It needs to be recognized that every weather event that happens nowadays takes place in the context of the changes in the background climate system. So nothing is entirely "natural" anymore. It's a fallacy to think that individual events are caused entirely by any one thing, either natural variation or human-induced climate change. Every event is influenced by many factors. Human-induced climate change is now a factor in weather events. The changes occurring in precipitation are consistent with the analyses of our changing climate. For extreme precipitation, we know that more precipitation is falling in very heavy events. And we know key reasons why; warmer air holds more water vapor, and so when any given weather system moves through, the extra water dumps can lead to a heavy downpour. As the climate system continues to warm, models of the Earth's climate system indicate severe precipitation events will likely become more commonplace. Water vapor will continue to increase in the atmosphere along with the warming, and large precipitation events will likely increase in intensity and frequency. In the presentation, we will not only discuss the recent trends in severe weather and the projections of the impacts of climate change on severe weather in the future, but also specific examples of how this information is being used in developing and applying adaptation policies.

Development of thunderstorm monitoring technologies and algorithms by integration of radar, sensors, and satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adzhieva, Aida A.; Shapovalov, Vitaliy A.; Boldyreff, Anton S.

2017-10-01

In the context of rising the frequency of natural disasters and catastrophes humanity has to develop methods and tools to ensure safe living conditions. Effectiveness of preventive measures greatly depends on quality and lead time of the forecast of disastrous natural phenomena, which is based on the amount of knowledge about natural hazards, their causes, manifestations, and impact. To prevent them it is necessary to get complete and comprehensive information about the extent of spread and severity of natural processes that can act within a defined territory. For these purposes the High Mountain Geophysical Institute developed the automated workplace for mining, analysis and archiving of radar, satellite, lightning sensors information and terrestrial (automatic weather station) weather data. The combination and aggregation of data from different sources of meteorological data provides a more informativity of the system. Satellite data shows the global cloud region in visible and infrared ranges, but have an uncertainty in terms of weather events and large time interval between the two periods of measurements, which complicates the use of this information for very short range forecasts of weather phenomena. Radar and lightning sensors data provide the detection of weather phenomena and their localization on the background of the global pattern of cloudiness in the region and have a low period measurement of atmospheric phenomena (hail, thunderstorms, showers, squalls, tornadoes). The authors have developed the improved algorithms for recognition of dangerous weather phenomena, based on the complex analysis of incoming information using the mathematical apparatus of pattern recognition.

Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead.

PubMed

Greer, Amy; Ng, Victoria; Fisman, David

2008-03-11

Global climate change is inevitable--the combustion of fossil fuels has resulted in a buildup of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere, causing unprecedented changes to the earth's climate. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that North America will experience marked changes in weather patterns in coming decades, including warmer temperatures and increased rainfall, summertime droughts and extreme weather events (e.g., tornadoes and hurricanes). Although these events may have direct consequences for health (e.g., injuries and displacement of populations due to thermal stress), they are also likely to cause important changes in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases, including vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, water-and food-borne diseases and diseases with environmental reservoirs (e.g., endemic fungal diseases). Changes in weather patterns and ecosystems, and health consequences of climate change will probably be most severe in far northern regions (e.g., the Arctic). We provide an overview of the expected nature and direction of such changes, which pose current and future challenges to health care providers and public health agencies.

Climate change and infectious diseases in North America: the road ahead

PubMed Central

Greer, Amy; Ng, Victoria; Fisman, David

2008-01-01

Global climate change is inevitable — the combustion of fossil fuels has resulted in a buildup of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere, causing unprecedented changes to the earth's climate. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that North America will experience marked changes in weather patterns in coming decades, including warmer temperatures and increased rainfall, summertime droughts and extreme weather events (e.g., tornadoes and hurricanes). Although these events may have direct consequences for health (e.g., injuries and displacement of populations due to thermal stress), they are also likely to cause important changes in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases, including vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, water-and food-borne diseases and diseases with environmental reservoirs (e.g., endemic fungal diseases). Changes in weather patterns and ecosystems, and health consequences of climate change will probably be most severe in far northern regions (e.g., the Arctic). We provide an overview of the expected nature and direction of such changes, which pose current and future challenges to health care providers and public health agencies. PMID:18332386

Assessment of WRF Simulated Precipitation by Meteorological Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagenhoff, Brooke Anne

This study evaluated warm-season precipitation events in a multi-year (2007-2014) database of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations over the Northern Plains and Southern Great Plains. These WRF simulations were run daily in support of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) for operational forecasts. Evaluating model skill by synoptic pattern allows for an understanding of how model performance varies with particular atmospheric states and will aid forecasters with pattern recognition. To conduct this analysis, a competitive neural network known as the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) was used. SOMs allow the user to represent atmospheric patterns in an array of nodes that represent a continuum of synoptic categorizations. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data during the warm season (April-September) was used to perform the synoptic typing over the study domains. Simulated precipitation was evaluated against observations provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV precipitation analysis.

Seasonality in trauma admissions - Are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects?

PubMed

Røislien, Jo; Søvik, Signe; Eken, Torsten

2018-01-01

Trauma is a leading global cause of death, and predicting the burden of trauma admissions is vital for good planning of trauma care. Seasonality in trauma admissions has been found in several studies. Seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours, temperature and weather affect social and cultural practices but also individual neuroendocrine rhythms that may ultimately modify behaviour and potentially predispose to trauma. The aim of the present study was to explore to what extent the observed seasonality in daily trauma admissions could be explained by changes in daylight and weather variables throughout the year. Retrospective registry study on trauma admissions in the 10-year period 2001-2010 at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Norway, where the amount of daylight varies from less than 6 hours to almost 19 hours per day throughout the year. Daily number of admissions was analysed by fitting non-linear Poisson time series regression models, simultaneously adjusting for several layers of temporal patterns, including a non-linear long-term trend and both seasonal and weekly cyclic effects. Five daylight and weather variables were explored, including hours of daylight and amount of precipitation. Models were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). A regression model including daylight and weather variables significantly outperformed a traditional seasonality model in terms of AIC. A cyclic week effect was significant in all models. Daylight and weather variables are better predictors of seasonality in daily trauma admissions than mere information on day-of-year.

Ubiquitous Geo-Sensing for Context-Aware Analysis: Exploring Relationships between Environmental and Human Dynamics

PubMed Central

Sagl, Günther; Blaschke, Thomas; Beinat, Euro; Resch, Bernd

2012-01-01

Ubiquitous geo-sensing enables context-aware analyses of physical and social phenomena, i.e., analyzing one phenomenon in the context of another. Although such context-aware analysis can potentially enable a more holistic understanding of spatio-temporal processes, it is rarely documented in the scientific literature yet. In this paper we analyzed the collective human behavior in the context of the weather. We therefore explored the complex relationships between these two spatio-temporal phenomena to provide novel insights into the dynamics of urban systems. Aggregated mobile phone data, which served as a proxy for collective human behavior, was linked with the weather data from climate stations in the case study area, the city of Udine, Northern Italy. To identify and characterize potential patterns within the weather-human relationships, we developed a hybrid approach which integrates several spatio-temporal statistical analysis methods. Thereby we show that explanatory factor analysis, when applied to a number of meteorological variables, can be used to differentiate between normal and adverse weather conditions. Further, we measured the strength of the relationship between the ‘global’ adverse weather conditions and the spatially explicit effective variations in user-generated mobile network traffic for three distinct periods using the Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC). The analyses result in three spatially referenced maps of MICs which reveal interesting insights into collective human dynamics in the context of weather, but also initiate several new scientific challenges. PMID:23012571

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years.

PubMed

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-02-17

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-01-01

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China. PMID:28211465

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-04-01

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-02-01

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Deep Learning for Extreme Weather Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhat, M.; Racah, E.; Biard, J.; Liu, Y.; Mudigonda, M.; Kashinath, K.; Beckham, C.; Maharaj, T.; Kahou, S.; Pal, C.; O'Brien, T. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Kunkel, K.; Collins, W. D.

2017-12-01

We will present our latest results from the application of Deep Learning methods for detecting, localizing and segmenting extreme weather patterns in climate data. We have successfully applied supervised convolutional architectures for the binary classification tasks of detecting tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in centered, cropped patches. We have subsequently extended our architecture to a semi-supervised formulation, which is capable of learning a unified representation of multiple weather patterns, predicting bounding boxes and object categories, and has the capability to detect novel patterns (w/ few, or no labels). We will briefly present our efforts in scaling the semi-supervised architecture to 9600 nodes of the Cori supercomputer, obtaining 15PF performance. Time permitting, we will highlight our efforts in pixel-level segmentation of weather patterns.

Asynchronous vegetation phenology enhances winter body condition of a large mobile herbivore.

PubMed

Searle, Kate R; Rice, Mindy B; Anderson, Charles R; Bishop, Chad; Hobbs, N T

2015-10-01

Understanding how spatial and temporal heterogeneity influence ecological processes forms a central challenge in ecology. Individual responses to heterogeneity shape population dynamics, therefore understanding these responses is central to sustainable population management. Emerging evidence has shown that herbivores track heterogeneity in nutritional quality of vegetation by responding to phenological differences in plants. We quantified the benefits mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) accrue from accessing habitats with asynchronous plant phenology in northwest Colorado over 3 years. Our analysis examined both the direct physiological and indirect environmental effects of weather and vegetation phenology on mule deer winter body condition. We identified several important effects of annual weather patterns and topographical variables on vegetation phenology in the home ranges of mule deer. Crucially, temporal patterns of vegetation phenology were linked with differences in body condition, with deer tending to show poorer body condition in areas with less asynchronous vegetation green-up and later vegetation onset. The direct physiological effect of previous winter precipitation on mule deer body condition was much less important than the indirect effect mediated by vegetation phenology. Additionally, the influence of vegetation phenology on body fat was much stronger than that of overall vegetation productivity. In summary, changing annual weather patterns, particularly in relation to seasonal precipitation, have the potential to alter body condition of this important ungulate species during the critical winter period. This finding highlights the importance of maintaining large contiguous areas of spatially and temporally variable resources to allow animals to compensate behaviourally for changing climate-driven resource patterns.

Meteorological effects on the daily activity patterns of tabanid biting flies in northern Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Van Hennekeler, K; Jones, R E; Skerratt, L F; Muzari, M O; Fitzpatrick, L A

2011-03-01

Information on the daily activity patterns of tabanid flies is important in the development of strategies that decrease the risk of pathogens transmitted by them. In addition, this information is useful to maximize numbers of tabanids trapped during short-term studies and to target feeding behavior studies of certain tabanid species to their times of peak activity. The current study examined the effects of various meteorological factors on the daily activity patterns of common tropical species of tabanids in north Queensland. Each species studied responded differently to weather factors. Tabanus townsvilli Ricardo (Diptera: Tabanidae) was most active during late morning and early afternoon, whereas Pseudotabanus silvester (Bergroth) and Tabanus pallipennis Macquart were most active in the late afternoon. Tabanus dorsobimaculatus Macquart was most active in the morning and early afternoon. Data on daily activity patterns of tabanid flies indicates that in an area such as Townsville, North Queensland, where several species of tabanid are present concurrently in high numbers, the overlapping periods of high activity for these species indicate a high risk of pathogen transmission for most of the day (10.00-19.00 hours). Similarly, because each species responds differently to weather variables, only extreme weather conditions are likely to inhibit activity of all species. These data also indicate that for maximal results, trapping and feeding behavior studies should be tailored to the preferred activity period of the species under investigation. © 2010 The Authors. Medical and Veterinary Entomology © 2010 The Royal Entomological Society.

Ozone trends and their relationship to characteristic weather patterns.

PubMed

Austin, Elena; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent; Schwartz, Joel; Gold, Diane R; Koutrakis, Petros

2015-01-01

Local trends in ozone concentration may differ by meteorological conditions. Furthermore, the trends occurring at the extremes of the Ozone distribution are often not reported even though these may be very different than the trend observed at the mean or median and they may be more relevant to health outcomes. Classify days of observation over a 16-year period into broad categories that capture salient daily local weather characteristics. Determine the rate of change in mean and median O3 concentrations within these different categories to assess how concentration trends are impacted by daily weather. Further examine if trends vary for observations in the extremes of the O3 distribution. We used k-means clustering to categorize days of observation based on the maximum daily temperature, standard deviation of daily temperature, mean daily ground level wind speed, mean daily water vapor pressure and mean daily sea-level barometric pressure. The five cluster solution was determined to be the appropriate one based on cluster diagnostics and cluster interpretability. Trends in cluster frequency and pollution trends within clusters were modeled using Poisson regression with penalized splines as well as quantile regression. There were five characteristic groupings identified. The frequency of days with large standard deviations in hourly temperature decreased over the observation period, whereas the frequency of warmer days with smaller deviations in temperature increased. O3 trends were significantly different within the different weather groupings. Furthermore, the rate of O3 change for the 95th percentile and 5th percentile was significantly different than the rate of change of the median for several of the weather categories.We found that O3 trends vary between different characteristic local weather patterns. O3 trends were significantly different between the different weather groupings suggesting an important interaction between changes in prevailing weather conditions and O3 concentration.

Observation and modelling of urban dew

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Katrina

Despite its relevance to many aspects of urban climate and to several practical questions, urban dew has largely been ignored. Here, simple observations an out-of-doors scale model, and numerical simulation are used to investigate patterns of dewfall and surface moisture (dew + guttation) in urban environments. Observations and modelling were undertaken in Vancouver, B.C., primarily during the summers of 1993 and 1996. Surveys at several scales (0.02-25 km) show that the main controls on dew are weather, location and site configuration (geometry and surface materials). Weather effects are discussed using an empirical factor, FW . Maximum dew accumulation (up to ~ 0.2 mm per night) is seen on nights with moist air and high FW , i.e., cloudless conditions with light winds. Favoured sites are those with high Ysky and surfaces which cool rapidly after sunset, e.g., grass and well insulated roofs. A 1/8-scale model is designed, constructed, and run at an out-of-doors site to study dew patterns in an urban residential landscape which consists of house lots, a street and an open grassed park. The Internal Thermal Mass (ITM) approach is used to scale the thermal inertia of buildings. The model is validated using data from full-scale sites in Vancouver. Patterns in the model agree with those seen at the full-scale, i.e., dew distribution is governed by weather, site geometry and substrate conditions. Correlation is shown between Ysky and surface moisture accumulation. The feasibility of using a numerical model to simulate urban dew is investigated using a modified version of a rural dew model. Results for simple isolated surfaces-a deciduous tree leaf and an asphalt shingle roof-show promise, especially for built surfaces.

Severe Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forde, Evan B.

2004-01-01

Educating the public about safety issues related to severe weather is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) mission. This month's insert, Severe Weather, has been created by NOAA to help educate the public about hazardous weather conditions. The four types of severe weather highlighted in this poster are hurricanes,…

Severe Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forde, Evan B.

2004-01-01

Educating the public about safety issues related to severe weather is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) mission. This article deals with a poster entitled, "Severe Weather," that has been created by NOAA to help educate the public about hazardous weather conditions. The four types of severe weather highlighted in…

Mobility of rare earth element in hydrothermal process and weathering product: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lintjewas, L.; Setiawan, I.

2018-02-01

The Rare Earth Element (REE), consists of La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Pm, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, are important elements to be used as raw materials of advanced technology such as semiconductors, magnets, and lasers. The research of REE in Indonesia has not been done. Several researches were conducted on granitic rocks and weathering product such as Bangka, Sibolga, West Kalimantan, West Sulawesi and Papua. REE can be formed by hydrothermal processes such as Bayan Obo, South China. The REE study on active hydrothermal system (geothermal) in this case also has the potential to produce mineral deposits. The purpose of this review paper is to know the mobility of REE on hydrothermal process and weathering products. Mobility of REE in the hydrothermal process can change the distribution patterns and REE content such as Ce, Eu, La, Lu, Nd, Sm, and Y. Another process besides the hydrothermal is weathering process. REE mobility is influenced by weathering products, where the REE will experience residual and secondary enrichment processes in heavier minerals.

Effect of weather patterns on preweaning growth of beef calves in the Northern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Beef production records collected over a 76-year investigation into effects of linebreeding and selection of Hereford cattle, and concurrent weather records were used to assess effects of weather patterns on the growth of calves from birth to weaning. Data were simultaneously adjusted for trends in ...

The Influence of Weather Variation, Urban Design and Built Environment on Objectively Measured Sedentary Behaviour in Children.

PubMed

Katapally, Tarun Reddy; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2016-01-01

With emerging evidence indicating that independent of physical activity, sedentary behaviour (SB) can be detrimental to health, researchers are increasingly aiming to understand the influence of multiple contexts such as urban design and built environment on SB. However, weather variation, a factor that continuously interacts with all other environmental variables, has been consistently underexplored. This study investigated the influence of diverse environmental exposures (including weather variation, urban design and built environment) on SB in children. This cross-sectional observational study is part of an active living research initiative set in the Canadian prairie city of Saskatoon. Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified based on urban street design into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear types of neighbourhoods. Diverse environmental exposures were measured including, neighbourhood built environment, and neighbourhood and household socioeconomic environment. Actical accelerometers were deployed between April and June 2010 (spring-summer) to derive SB of 331 10-14 year old children in 25 one week cycles. Each cycle of accelerometry was conducted on a different cohort of children within the total sample. Accelerometer data were matched with localized weather patterns derived from Environment Canada weather data. Multilevel modeling using Hierarchical Linear and Non-linear Modeling software was conducted by factoring in weather variation to depict the influence of diverse environmental exposures on SB. Both weather variation and urban design played a significant role in SB. After factoring in weather variation, it was observed that children living in grid-pattern neighbourhoods closer to the city centre (with higher diversity of destinations) were less likely to be sedentary. This study demonstrates a methodology that could be replicated to integrate geography-specific weather patterns with existing cross-sectional accelerometry data to understand the influence of urban design and built environment on SB in children.

A Model Based Analysis of the Role of an Upper-Level Front and Stratospheric Intrusion in the Mack Lake Fire

Treesearch

Tarisa K. Zimet; Jonathan E. Martin

2003-01-01

Meteorological assessment of wildfire risk has traditionally involved identification of several synoptic types empirically determined to influence wildfire spread. Such weather types are characterized by identifiable synoptic-scale structures and processes. Schroeder et. al. (1964) identified four recognizable synoptic-scale patterns that contribute most frequently to...

Daily Weather and Children's Physical Activity Patterns.

PubMed

Remmers, Teun; Thijs, Carel; Timperio, Anna; Salmon, J O; Veitch, Jenny; Kremers, Stef P J; Ridgers, Nicola D

2017-05-01

Understanding how the weather affects physical activity (PA) may help in the design, analysis, and interpretation of future studies, especially when investigating PA across diverse meteorological settings and with long follow-up periods. The present longitudinal study first aims to examine the influence of daily weather elements on intraindividual PA patterns among primary school children across four seasons, reflecting day-to-day variation within each season. Second, we investigate whether the influence of weather elements differs by day of the week (weekdays vs weekends), gender, age, and body mass index. PA data were collected by ActiGraph accelerometers for 1 wk in each of four school terms that reflect each season in southeast Australia. PA data from 307 children (age range 8.7-12.8 yr) were matched to daily meteorological variables obtained from the Australian Government's Bureau of Meteorology (maximum temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, day length, and rainfall). Daily PA patterns and their association with weather elements were analyzed using multilevel linear mixed models. Temperature was the strongest predictor of moderate and vigorous PA, followed by solar radiation and humidity. The relation with temperature was curvilinear, showing optimum PA levels at temperatures between 20°C and 22°C. Associations between weather elements on PA did not differ by gender, child's age, or body mass index. This novel study focused on the influence of weather elements on intraindividual PA patterns in children. As weather influences cannot be controlled, knowledge of its effect on individual PA patterns may help in the design of future studies, interpretation of their results, and translation into PA promotion.

Forecast Tools for Alaska River Ice Breakup Timing and Severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, E. H.; Lindsey, S.; van Breukelen, C. M.; Thoman, R.

2016-12-01

Spring Breakup on the large interior rivers in Alaska means a time of nervous anticipation for many of the residents in the villages alongside those rivers. On the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers the record flood for most villages occurred as a result of ice jams that backed up water and dump truck sized ice floes into the village. Those floods can occur suddenly and can literally wipe out a village. The challenge is that with a limited observation network (3 automated USGS gages along the 1200 miles of the Yukon River flowing through Alaska) and the inherently transient nature of ice jam formation, prediction of the timing and severity of these events has been a tremendous challenge. Staff at the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center as well as the Alaska Region Climate Program Manager have been developing more quantitative tools to attempt to provide a longer lead time for villages to prepare for potentially devastating flooding. In the past, a very qualitative assessment of the primary drivers of Spring Breakup (snow pack, river ice thickness and forecast spring weather) have led to the successful identification of years when flood severity was likely to be elevated or significantly decreased. These qualitative assessments have also allowed the forecasting of the probability of either a thermal or a dynamic breakup. But there has continued to be a need for an objective tool that can handle weather patterns that border on the tails of the climatic distributions as well as the timing and flood potential from weather patterns that are closer to the median of the distribution. Over the past 8 years there have been a significant number of years with anomalous spring weather patterns including cold springs followed by rapid warmups leading to record flooding from ice jams during spring breakup (2009, 2013), record late breakup (2013), record early breakup (2016), record high snowfall (2012), record snowmelt and aufeis flooding (2015) and record low snowfall (2015). The need for improved tools that can handle these events over the full breadth of the distribution has never been greater. This talk will describe efforts to incorporate climate signals into the spring breakup outlook and show results of some temperature based indices as an indicator of breakup timing.

Optimizing Placement of Weather Stations: Exploring Objective Functions of Meaningful Combinations of Multiple Weather Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, A.; Dietterich, T.; Selker, J. S.

2017-12-01

Many regions of the world lack ground-based weather data due to inadequate or unreliable weather station networks. For example, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have unreliable, sparse networks of weather stations. The absence of these data can have consequences on weather forecasting, prediction of severe weather events, agricultural planning, and climate change monitoring. The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO.org) project seeks to address these problems by deploying and operating a large network of weather stations throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. To design the TAHMO network, we must determine where to place weather stations within each country. We should consider how we can create accurate spatio-temporal maps of weather data and how to balance the desired accuracy of each weather variable of interest (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, etc.). We can express this problem as a joint optimization of multiple weather variables, given a fixed number of weather stations. We use reanalysis data as the best representation of the "true" weather patterns that occur in the region of interest. For each possible combination of sites, we interpolate the reanalysis data between selected locations and calculate the mean average error between the reanalysis ("true") data and the interpolated data. In order to formulate our multi-variate optimization problem, we explore different methods of weighting each weather variable in our objective function. These methods include systematic variation of weights to determine which weather variables have the strongest influence on the network design, as well as combinations targeted for specific purposes. For example, we can use computed evapotranspiration as a metric that combines many weather variables in a way that is meaningful for agricultural and hydrological applications. We compare the errors of the weather station networks produced by each optimization problem formulation. We also compare these errors to those of manually designed weather station networks in West Africa, planned by the respective host-country's meteorological agency.

Isolating weather effects from seasonal activity patterns of a temperate North American Colubrid

Treesearch

Andrew D. George; Frank R. III Thompson; John Faaborg

2015-01-01

Forecasting the effects of climate change on threatened ecosystems and species will require an understanding of how weather influences processes that drive population dynamics. We have evaluated weather effects on activity patterns of western ratsnakes, a widespread predator of birds and small mammals in eastern North America. From 2010-2013 we radio-tracked 53...

Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

2010-05-01

Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations and ignition probability grids (1000 x 1000 m) built from historical fire data (1995-2007). The simulation outputs were then examined to understand relationships between burn probability and specific vegetation types and ignition sources. Wildfire threats to specific values of human interest were quantified to map landscape patterns of wildfire risk. The simulation outputs also allowed us to differentiate between areas of the landscape that were progenitors of fires versus "victims" of large fires. The results provided spatially explicit data on wildfire likelihood and intensity that can be used in a variety of strategic and tactical planning forums to mitigate wildfire threats to human and other values in the Mediterranean Basin.

A conditional approach to determining the effect of anthropogenic climate change on very rare events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Pall, Pardeep; Zarzycki, Colin; Stone, Daithi

2016-04-01

Probabilistic extreme event attribution is especially difficult for weather events that are caused by extremely rare large-scale meteorological patterns. Traditional modeling techniques have involved using ensembles of climate models, either fully coupled or with prescribed ocean and sea ice. Ensemble sizes for the latter case ranges from several 100 to tens of thousand. However, even if the simulations are constrained by the observed ocean state, the requisite large-scale meteorological pattern may not occur frequently enough or even at all in free running climate model simulations. We present a method to ensure that simulated events similar to the observed event are modeled with enough fidelity that robust statistics can be determined given the large scale meteorological conditions. By initializing suitably constrained short term ensemble hindcasts of both the actual weather system and a counterfactual weather system where the human interference in the climate system is removed, the human contribution to the magnitude of the event can be determined. However, the change (if any) in the probability of an event of the observed magnitude is conditional not only on the state of the ocean/sea ice system but also on the prescribed initial conditions determined by the causal large scale meteorological pattern. We will discuss the implications of this technique through two examples; the 2013 Colorado flood and the 2014 Typhoon Haiyan.

Weather patterns as a downscaling tool - evaluating their skill in stratifying local climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murawski, Aline; Bürger, Gerd; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

The use of a weather pattern based approach for downscaling of coarse, gridded atmospheric data, as usually obtained from the output of general circulation models (GCM), allows for investigating the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on fluxes and state variables of the hydrological cycle such as e.g. on runoff in large river catchments. Here we aim at attributing changes in high flows in the Rhine catchment to anthropogenic climate change. Therefore we run an objective classification scheme (simulated annealing and diversified randomisation - SANDRA, available from the cost733 classification software) on ERA20C reanalyses data and apply the established classification to GCMs from the CMIP5 project. After deriving weather pattern time series from GCM runs using forcing from all greenhouse gases (All-Hist) and using natural greenhouse gas forcing only (Nat-Hist), a weather generator will be employed to obtain climate data time series for the hydrological model. The parameters of the weather pattern classification (i.e. spatial extent, number of patterns, classification variables) need to be selected in a way that allows for good stratification of the meteorological variables that are of interest for the hydrological modelling. We evaluate the skill of the classification in stratifying meteorological data using a multi-variable approach. This allows for estimating the stratification skill for all meteorological variables together, not separately as usually done in existing similar work. The advantage of the multi-variable approach is to properly account for situations where e.g. two patterns are associated with similar mean daily temperature, but one pattern is dry while the other one is related to considerable amounts of precipitation. Thus, the separation of these two patterns would not be justified when considering temperature only, but is perfectly reasonable when accounting for precipitation as well. Besides that, the weather patterns derived from reanalyses data should be well represented in the All-Hist GCM runs in terms of e.g. frequency, seasonality, and persistence. In this contribution we show how to select the most appropriate weather pattern classification and how the classes derived from it are reflected in the GCMs.

Severe Weather Planning for Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Barbara McNaught; Strong, Christopher; Bunting, Bill

2008-01-01

Flash floods, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes occur with rapid onset and often no warning. Decisions must be made quickly and actions taken immediately. This paper provides tips for schools on: (1) Preparing for Severe Weather Emergencies; (2) Activating a Severe Weather Plan; (3) Severe Weather Plan Checklist; and (4) Periodic Drills and…

Large Scale Meteorological Pattern of Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuswanto, Heri; Grotjahn, Richard; Rachmi, Arinda; Suhermi, Novri; Oktania, Erma; Wijaya, Yosep

2014-05-01

Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) cause negative impacts socially, economically, and environmentally. Considering these facts, forecasting EWEs is crucial work. Indonesia has been identified as being among the countries most vulnerable to the risk of natural disasters, such as floods, heat waves, and droughts. Current forecasting of extreme events in Indonesia is carried out by interpreting synoptic maps for several fields without taking into account the link between the observed events in the 'target' area with remote conditions. This situation may cause misidentification of the event leading to an inaccurate prediction. Grotjahn and Faure (2008) compute composite maps from extreme events (including heat waves and intense rainfall) to help forecasters identify such events in model output. The composite maps show large scale meteorological patterns (LSMP) that occurred during historical EWEs. Some vital information about the EWEs can be acquired from studying such maps, in addition to providing forecaster guidance. Such maps have robust mid-latitude meteorological patterns (for Sacramento and California Central Valley, USA EWEs). We study the performance of the composite approach for tropical weather condition such as Indonesia. Initially, the composite maps are developed to identify and forecast the extreme weather events in Indramayu district- West Java, the main producer of rice in Indonesia and contributes to about 60% of the national total rice production. Studying extreme weather events happening in Indramayu is important since EWEs there affect national agricultural and fisheries activities. During a recent EWE more than a thousand houses in Indramayu suffered from serious flooding with each home more than one meter underwater. The flood also destroyed a thousand hectares of rice plantings in 5 regencies. Identifying the dates of extreme events is one of the most important steps and has to be carried out carefully. An approach has been applied to identify the dates involving observations from multiple sites (rain gauges). The approach combines the POT (Peaks Over Threshold) with 'declustering' of the data to approximate independence based on the autocorrelation structure of each rainfall series. The cross correlation among sites is considered also to develop the event's criteria yielding a rational choice of the extreme dates given the 'spotty' nature of the intense convection. Based on the identified dates, we are developing a supporting tool for forecasting extreme rainfall based on the corresponding large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The LSMPs methodology focuses on the larger-scale patterns that the model are better able to forecast, as those larger-scale patterns create the conditions fostering the local EWE. Bootstrap resampling method is applied to highlight the key features that statistically significant with the extreme events. Grotjahn, R., and G. Faure. 2008: Composite Predictor Maps of Extraordinary Weather Events in the Sacramento California Region. Weather and Forecasting. 23: 313-335.

Data Mining for Understanding and Impriving Decision-Making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao Xun; Sridhar, Banavar

2013-01-01

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions. The work reported in this paper is focused on ground delay programs. Data mining algorithms have the potential to develop associations between weather patterns and the corresponding ground delay program responses. If successful, they can be used to improve and standardize TFM decision resulting in better predictability of traffic flows on days with reliable weather forecasts. The approach here seeks to develop a set of data mining and machine learning models and apply them to historical archives of weather observations and forecasts and TFM initiatives to determine the extent to which the theory can predict and explain the observed traffic flow behaviors.

First report on Cretaceous paleoweathering rates in western Panthalassa: Evidence of global enhancement of continental weathering during OAE 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohta, T.

2013-12-01

Mid-Cretaceous is characterized by intensified oceanic anoxia (Oceanic Anoxic Events: OAEs) that raised global deposition of organic black shales. Several models have been proposed to explain the cause of the OAEs in conjunction with Cretaceous global warmth, active volcanism, sea-level changes and others. For example, Weissert et al. (1998) proposed a mechanism called 'weathering hypothesis'. In this model, the cause of the OAEs is explained in a following chain reaction, (1) global warmth and increase in atmospheric CO2 enhanced weathering of continental crust, (2) enhanced land weathering led excessive influx of nutrients from continents to oceans, (3) eutrophication enhanced primary productivity, (4) the excessive primary producers consumed dissolved oceanic oxygen that finally led to the OAEs. Several studies, in fact, revealed a causal relation between enhanced weathering and OAEs in northern Tethys region. However, it is necessary to collect worldwide information to unravel the global response of weathering hypothesis as a cause of OAEs. For such reason, the present contribution conducted measurements of the degree of hinterland paleoweathering during OAEs in northern Japan, for the purpose to provide a first report on the relation between continental weathering and OAEs in open ocean, the western Panthalassa Ocean. Aptian to Campanian forearc basin mudstones (Yezo Group) were analyzed by XRF and the degree of hinterland weathering was evaluated by geochemical weathering index (W index; Ohta and Arai, 2007). The W values obtained for the Yezo Group are 30~50, which is equivalent to the W values of recent soils developed in temperate mid-latitude climate. The W values show a fluctuation pattern that is concordant with the Cretaceous paleotemperature changes. This match indicates that the change in paleotemperature governed the weathering rates of East Asian continental crust. In addition, hinterland weathering rates show instantaneous increase during the OAE intervals. Specifically, a clear positive excursion of W value is recorded in the OAE 2 horizon. High-resolution analysis revealed that increase in weathering rate slightly predates the OAE 2, c.a. 100 to 500 ka before the onset of anoxia. Therefore, our results are consistent with the weathering hypothesis in two aspects. As assumed in weathering hypothesis, enhanced hinterland weathering is linked with the OAEs and hinterland weathering precedes the onset of OAEs. Furthermore, our data suggests that, as well as in Tethys Ocean, enhanced hinterland paleoweathering during OAEs also occurred in the open Panathalassa Ocean. This indicates that enhanced hinterland weathering was a global and pervasive event causing OAEs.

78 FR 78486 - Notice of Funding Availability for Resilience Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-26

... changes in development patterns, demographics, or climate change and extreme weather patterns. For the... located; or projected changes in development patterns, demographics, or extreme weather or other climate... climate-related disasters are a continuing threat. According to the ``Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Strategy...

Contributions of ignitions, fuels, and weather to the spatial patterns of burn probability of a boreal landscape

Treesearch

Marc-Andre Parisien; Sean A. Parks; Carol Miller; Meg A. Krawchuck; Mark Heathcott; Max A. Moritz

2011-01-01

The spatial pattern of fire observed across boreal landscapes is the outcome of complex interactions among components of the fire environment. We investigated how the naturally occurring patterns of ignitions, fuels, and weather generate spatial pattern of burn probability (BP) in a large and highly fireprone boreal landscape of western Canada, Wood Buffalo National...

Refining the cheatgrass-fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends.

PubMed

Pilliod, David S; Welty, Justin L; Arkle, Robert S

2017-10-01

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years' growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1-3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin; Arkle, Robert

2017-01-01

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years’ growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1–3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

Climate and weather influences on spatial temporal patterns of mountain pine beetle populations in Washington and Oregon

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

2012-01-01

Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in North America have drawn the attention of scientists, forest managers, and the public. There is strong evidence that climate change has contributed to the extent and severity of recent outbreaks. Scientists are interested in quantifying relationships between bark beetle population dynamics and trends in climate. Process...

Monitoring water use and crop condition in California vineyards at multiple scales using multi-sensor satellite data fusion

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent weather patterns have left California’s agricultural areas in severe drought. Given the reduced water availability in much of California it is critical to be able to measure water use and crop condition over large areas, but also in fine detail at scales of individual fields to support water...

Regional severe particle pollution and its association with synoptic weather patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Lei; Xie, Min; Gao, Da; Wang, Tijian; Fang, Dexian; Liu, Qian; Huang, Anning; Peng, Liwen

2017-11-01

Regional air pollution is significantly associated with dominant weather systems. In this study, the relationship between the particle pollution over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region and weather patterns is investigated. First, the pollution characteristics of particles in the YRD are studied using in situ monitoring data (PM2.5 and PM10) in 16 cities and Terra/MODIS AOD (aerosol optical depth) products collected from December 2013 to November 2014. The results show that the regional mean value of AOD is high in the YRD, with an annual mean value of 0.71±0.57. The annual mean particle concentrations in the cities of Jiangsu Province all exceed the national air quality standard. The pollution level is higher in inland areas, and the highest concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 are 79 and 130 µg m-3, respectively, in Nanjing. The PM2.5 : PM10 ratios are typically high, thus indicating that PM2.5 is the overwhelmingly dominant particle pollutant in the YRD. The wintertime peak of particle concentrations is tightly linked to the increased emissions during the heating season as well as adverse meteorological conditions. Second, based on NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data, synoptic weather classification is conducted and five typical synoptic patterns are objectively identified. Finally, the synthetic analysis of meteorological fields and backward trajectories are applied to further clarify how these patterns impact particle concentrations. It is demonstrated that air pollution is more or less influenced by high-pressure systems. The relative position of the YRD to the anti-cyclonic circulation exerts significant effects on the air quality of the YRD. The YRD is largely influenced by polluted air masses from the northern and the southern inland areas when it is located at the rear of the East Asian major trough. The significant downward motion of air masses results in stable weather conditions, thereby hindering the diffusion of air pollutants. Thus, this pattern is quite favorable for the accumulation of pollutants in the YRD, resulting in higher regional mean PM10 (116.5 ± 66.9 µg m-3), PM2.5 (75.9 ± 49.9 µg m-3), and AOD (0.74) values. Moreover, this pattern is also responsible for the occurrence of most large-scale regional PM2.5 (70.4 %) and PM10 (78.3 %) pollution episodes. High wind speed and clean marine air masses may also play important roles in the mitigation of pollution in the YRD. Especially when the clean marine air masses account for a large proportion of all trajectories (i.e., when the YRD is affected by the cyclonic system or oceanic circulation), the air in the YRD has a lesser chance of being polluted. The observed correlation between weather patterns and particle pollution can provide valuable insight into making decisions about pollution control and mitigation strategies.

Rare earth elements in weathering profiles and sediments of Minnesota: Implications for provenance studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morey, G.B.; Setterholm, D.R.

1997-01-01

The relative abundance of rare earth elements in sediments has been suggested as a tool for determining their source rocks. This correlation requires that weathering, erosion, and sedimentation do not alter the REE abundances, or do so in a predictable manner. We find that the rare earth elements are mobilized and fractionated by weathering, and that sediments derived from the weathered materials can display modifications of the original pattern of rare earth elements of some due to grain-size sorting of the weathered material. However, the REE distribution pattern of the provenance terrane can be recognized in the sediments.

The Influence of Weather Variation, Urban Design and Built Environment on Objectively Measured Sedentary Behaviour in Children

PubMed Central

Katapally, Tarun Reddy; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2016-01-01

With emerging evidence indicating that independent of physical activity, sedentary behaviour (SB) can be detrimental to health, researchers are increasingly aiming to understand the influence of multiple contexts such as urban design and built environment on SB. However, weather variation, a factor that continuously interacts with all other environmental variables, has been consistently underexplored. This study investigated the influence of diverse environmental exposures (including weather variation, urban design and built environment) on SB in children. This cross-sectional observational study is part of an active living research initiative set in the Canadian prairie city of Saskatoon. Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified based on urban street design into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear types of neighbourhoods. Diverse environmental exposures were measured including, neighbourhood built environment, and neighbourhood and household socioeconomic environment. Actical accelerometers were deployed between April and June 2010 (spring-summer) to derive SB of 331 10–14 year old children in 25 one week cycles. Each cycle of accelerometry was conducted on a different cohort of children within the total sample. Accelerometer data were matched with localized weather patterns derived from Environment Canada weather data. Multilevel modeling using Hierarchical Linear and Non-linear Modeling software was conducted by factoring in weather variation to depict the influence of diverse environmental exposures on SB. Both weather variation and urban design played a significant role in SB. After factoring in weather variation, it was observed that children living in grid-pattern neighbourhoods closer to the city centre (with higher diversity of destinations) were less likely to be sedentary. This study demonstrates a methodology that could be replicated to integrate geography-specific weather patterns with existing cross-sectional accelerometry data to understand the influence of urban design and built environment on SB in children. PMID:29546188

GOES-R Space Weather Data: Ensuring Access and Usability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilton, M.; Rowland, W. F.; Wilkinson, D. C.; Denig, W. F.; Darnel, J.; Kress, B. T.; Loto'aniu, P. T. M.; Machol, J. L.; Redmon, R. J.; Rodriguez, J. V.

2015-12-01

The upcoming Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite series, GOES-R, will provide critical space weather data. These data are used to prevent communication outages, mitigate the damage solar weather causes to satellites and power grids, and reduce astronaut radiation exposure. The space weather instruments aboard GOES-R will deliver an operational dataset of unprecedented breadth. However, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)—the organization that provides access to archived GOES-R data—has faced several challenges in delivering this information to customers in usable form. For instance, the GOES-R ground system was contracted to develop higher-level products for terrestrial data but not space weather data. Variations in GOES-R data file formats and archive locations have also threatened to create an inconsistent user experience. This presentation will examine the ways in which NCEI is making GOES-R space weather data more accessible and actionable for customers. These efforts include NCEI's development of high-level data products to meet the requirements of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center—a role NCEI has not previously played. In addition, NCEI is creating a demonstration system to show how these products can be produced in real-time. The organization is also examining customer usage of the GOES-NOP data access system and using these access patterns to drive decisions about the GOES-R user interface.

The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Li-Wei

2017-09-01

The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

Depth-Related Changes in Community Structure of Culturable Mineral Weathering Bacteria and in Weathering Patterns Caused by Them along Two Contrasting Soil Profiles

PubMed Central

Huang, Jing; Xi, Jun; Huang, Zhi; Wang, Qi; Zhang, Zhen-Dong

2014-01-01

Bacteria play important roles in mineral weathering and soil formation. However, few reports of mineral weathering bacteria inhabiting subsurfaces of soil profiles have been published, raising the question of whether the subsurface weathering bacteria are fundamentally distinct from those in surface communities. To address this question, we isolated and characterized mineral weathering bacteria from two contrasting soil profiles with respect to their role in the weathering pattern evolution, their place in the community structure, and their depth-related changes in these two soil profiles. The effectiveness and pattern of bacterial mineral weathering were different in the two profiles and among the horizons within the respective profiles. The abundance of highly effective mineral weathering bacteria in the Changshu profile was significantly greater in the deepest horizon than in the upper horizons, whereas in the Yanting profile it was significantly greater in the upper horizons than in the deeper horizons. Most of the mineral weathering bacteria from the upper horizons of the Changshu profile and from the deeper horizons of the Yanting profile significantly acidified the culture media in the mineral weathering process. The proportion of siderophore-producing bacteria in the Changshu profile was similar in all horizons except in the Bg2 horizon, whereas the proportion of siderophore-producing bacteria in the Yanting profile was higher in the upper horizons than in the deeper horizons. Both profiles existed in different highly depth-specific culturable mineral weathering community structures. The depth-related changes in culturable weathering communities were primarily attributable to minor bacterial groups rather than to a change in the major population structure. PMID:24077700

A Sounding-based Severe Weather Tool to Support Daily Operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H.; Roeder, William P.

2014-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Severe Weather Tool using 1500 UTC Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Soundings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III

2013-01-01

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

A Severe Weather Laboratory Exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate Class Using Active Learning Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grundstein, Andrew; Durkee, Joshua; Frye, John; Andersen, Theresa; Lieberman, Jordan

2011-01-01

This paper describes a new severe weather laboratory exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate class, appropriate for first and second year college students (including nonscience majors), that incorporates inquiry-based learning techniques. In the lab, students play the role of meteorologists making forecasts for severe weather. The…

Weathering Patterns of Forensic Biomarker Compounds and PAHs in Coastal Marsh Sediment Samples since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overton, E. B.; Meyer, B.; Miles, S.; Olson, G.; Adhikari, P. L.

2016-02-01

It has been well established that the composition of oil, when spilled into the marine environment, undergoes substantial changes caused by weathering. The general sequence of this compositional change begins with straight chain alkanes (the fastest to degrade), followed by low molecular weight branched and cyclic alkanes and, finally the aromatics. Most resistant to weathering are the higher molecular weight cyclic and branched alkanes (i.e., the "forensic biomarker compounds" such as the hopanes and steranes) and tri-aromatic ringed steroids. The composition of these biomarker compounds is particularly resistant to change because they are not affected by evaporative weathering, are not water soluble, and are not readily degraded by microbial and/or photo-oxidation. However, after extensive time in the environment, being subjected to numerous weathering factors, biomarker compositional patterns are beginning to exhibit significant changes. This presentation will describe the general weathering patterns of petroleum residues in sediment samples collected from marsh areas of coastal Louisiana over a five year period. Particular attention will focus on compositional changes that have been observed in the steranes and diasteranes compounds that traditionally have been considered the most resistant to compositional changes due to weathering.

A synoptic climatology for forest fires in the NE US and future implications for GCM simulations

Treesearch

Yan Qing; Ronald Sabo; Yiqiang Wu; J.Y. Zhu

1994-01-01

We studied surface-pressure patterns corresponding to reduced precipitation, high evaporation potential, and enhanced forest-fire danger for West Virginia, which experienced extensive forest-fire damage in November 1987. From five years of daily weather maps we identified eight weather patterns that describe distinctive flow situations throughout the year. Map patterns...

2009 weather and aeolian sand-transport data from the Colorado River corridor, Grand Canyon, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draut, Amy E.; Sondossi, Hoda A.; Dealy, Timothy P.; Hazel, Joseph E.; Fairley, Helen C.; Brown, Christopher R.

2010-01-01

This report presents measurements of weather parameters and aeolian sand transport made in 2009 near selected archeological sites in the Colorado River corridor through Grand Canyon, Ariz. The quantitative methods and data discussed here form a basis for monitoring ecosystem processes that affect archeological-site stability. Combined with forthcoming work to evaluate landscape evolution at nearby archeological sites, these data can be used to document the relation between physical processes, including weather and aeolian sand transport, and their effects on the physical integrity of archeological sites. Data collected in 2009 reveal event- and seasonal-scale variations in rainfall, wind, temperature, humidity, and barometric pressure. Broad seasonal changes in aeolian sediment flux are also apparent at most study sites. Differences in weather patterns between 2008 and 2009 included an earlier spring windy season, greater spring precipitation even though 2009 annual rainfall totals were in general substantially lower than in 2008, and earlier onset of the reduced diurnal barometric-pressure fluctuations commonly associated with summer monsoon conditions. Weather patterns in middle to late 2009 were apparently affected by a transition of the ENSO cycle from a neutral phase to the El Ni?o phase. The continuation of monitoring that began in 2007, and installation of additional equipment at several new sites in early 2008, allowed evaluation of the effects of the March 2008 high-flow experiment (HFE) on aeolian sand transport. As reported earlier, at 2 of the 9 sites studied, spring and summer winds in 2008 reworked the HFE sandbars to form new aeolian dunes, where sand moved inland toward larger, well-established dune fields. Observations in 2009 showed that farther inland migration of the dune at one of those two sites is likely inhibited by vegetation. At the other location, the new aeolian dune form was found to have moved 10 m inland toward older, well-established dunes during 2009, resulting in landward transport of several hundred cubic meters of new sand upslope and above the elevation reached by the peak HFE water level.

Sensitivity of WRF precipitation field to assimilation sources in northeastern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenzana, Jesús; Merino, Andrés; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Fernández-González, Sergio; Gascón, Estíbaliz; Hermida, Lucía; Sánchez, José Luis; López, Laura; Marcos, José Luis

2015-04-01

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) of precipitation is a challenge. Models predict precipitation after solving many physical processes. In particular, mesoscale NWP models have different parameterizations, such as microphysics, cumulus or radiation schemes. These facilitate, according to required spatial and temporal resolutions, precipitation fields with increasing reliability. Nevertheless, large uncertainties are inherent to precipitation forecasting. Consequently, assimilation methods are very important. The Atmospheric Physics Group at the University of León in Spain and the Castile and León Supercomputing Center carry out daily weather prediction based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, covering the entire Iberian Peninsula. Forecasts of severe precipitation affecting the Ebro Valley, in the southern Pyrenees range of northeastern Spain, are crucial in the decision-making process for managing reservoirs or initializing runoff models. These actions can avert floods and ensure uninterrupted economic activity in the area. We investigated a set of cases corresponding to intense or severe precipitation patterns, using a rain gauge network. Simulations were performed with a dual objective, i.e., to analyze forecast improvement using a specific assimilation method, and to study the sensitivity of model outputs to different types of assimilation data. A WRF forecast model initialized by an NCEP SST analysis was used as the control run. The assimilation was based on the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) developed by NOAA. The MADIS data used were METAR, maritime, ACARS, radiosonde, and satellite products. The results show forecast improvement using the suggested assimilation method, and differences in the accuracy of forecast precipitation patterns varied with the assimilation data source.

Analysis of Synoptic Weather Types and Its Influence on Precipitation in the Marmara Region (NW Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltaci, H.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Karaca, M.

2012-04-01

In this study, we investigated the relationship between synoptic weather types and rainfall patterns in the Marmara region, northwestern part of Turkey. For this purpose, the automated Lamb weather type classification method was applied to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily mean sea level pressure data for the period between 2001 and 2010. Ten synoptic weather types were found that represent the 90% of the synoptic patterns that affect the Marmara region. Based on the annual frequency analysis, mainly six synoptic weather types, 24% (NorthEast), 21% (North), 11% (South), 9% (SouthWest), 7% (Anticyclonic), 5% (Cyclonic), were found dominant in the region. Multiple comparison tests suggest that (i.e., Bonferroni test) northerly patterns (i.e., North and NorthEast) have statistically significantly higher percentages as compared to the southerly (i.e., South and SouthWest) and the rest of the patterns (i.e., Anticylonic and Cylonic). During winter months, N- and NE-patterns observed less frequently than the annual frequencies of them, 18% and 13% of the period, respectively. On the other hand, due to the formation of the low pressure center located over the central Mediterranean Sea, S- and SW-patterns were observed more frequently than their annual mean frequencies, 16% and 17%, respectively. During summer months, N- and NE-patterns become dominant in the region, and they constitute about three quarters of the period, 25% and 44%, respectively. The low pressure center located over central Anatolia and Black Sea brings moist and cool air to the region, preventing excessive heating during the summer season. Cyclonic patterns observed less frequent during the winter and fall months, about 3%. They become more frequent during the summer season, 9% as a result of the shifting of the subtropical jet stream to the south, and the seasonal movement of the Basra low pressure toward the inner and northern parts of the Anatolian peninsula. On the other hand, Anticyclonic patterns are more common in the fall season 11% due to the expansion of spatial extent of the anticyclone center located over the Caspian Sea. Daily precipitation records for the period of between 2001 and 2010 belong to 14 meteorological stations in the region were investigated to understand the influence of synoptic weather types on precipitation. Based on daily precipitation records, about one-third of the NE-patterns result in precipitation which is slightly larger than patterns from other directions. The corresponding values for SW-, N- and S-patterns are 29%, 25% and 25%, respectively. Northerly patterns (N and NE) causes more frequent precipitation on the northern and eastern parts of the region. On the other hand, southerly patterns (S and SW) are more influential and cause more frequent precipitation on the south and northwestern parts of the region. Therefore, frequency of synoptic weather types and daily precipitation records suggest that precipitation regimes are of a different nature in northern and southern parts of the Marmara region. Keywords Synoptic weather types; Marmara Region; Lamb classification; Rainfall patterns

Adverse weather conditions and fatal motor vehicle crashes in the United States, 1994-2012.

PubMed

Saha, Shubhayu; Schramm, Paul; Nolan, Amanda; Hess, Jeremy

2016-11-08

Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of injury mortality. Adverse weather and road conditions have the potential to affect the likelihood of motor vehicle fatalities through several pathways. However, there remains a dearth of assessments associating adverse weather conditions to fatal crashes in the United States. We assessed trends in motor vehicle fatalities associated with adverse weather and present spatial variation in fatality rates by state. We analyzed the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) datasets from 1994 to 2012 produced by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) that contains reported weather information for each fatal crash. For each year, we estimated the fatal crashes that were associated with adverse weather conditions. We stratified these fatalities by months to examine seasonal patterns. We calculated state-specific rates using annual vehicle miles traveled data for all fatalities and for those related to adverse weather to examine spatial variations in fatality rates. To investigate the role of adverse weather as an independent risk factor for fatal crashes, we calculated odds ratios for known risk factors (e.g., alcohol and drug use, no restraint use, poor driving records, poor light conditions, highway driving) to be reported along with adverse weather. Total and adverse weather-related fatalities decreased over 1994-2012. Adverse weather-related fatalities constituted about 16 % of total fatalities on average over the study period. On average, 65 % of adverse weather-related fatalities happened between November and April, with rain/wet conditions more frequently reported than snow/icy conditions. The spatial distribution of fatalities associated with adverse weather by state was different than the distribution of total fatalities. Involvement of alcohol or drugs, no restraint use, and speeding were less likely to co-occur with fatalities during adverse weather conditions. While adverse weather is reported for a large number of motor vehicle fatalities for the US, the type of adverse weather and the rate of associated fatality vary geographically. These fatalities may be addressed and potentially prevented by modifying speed limits during inclement weather, improving road surfacing, ice and snow removal, and providing transit alternatives, but the impact of potential interventions requires further research.

Arctic-midlatitude weather linkages in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin

2018-06-01

There is intense public interest in whether major Arctic changes can and will impact midlatitude weather such as cold air outbreaks on the central and east side of continents. Although there is progress in linkage research for eastern Asia, a clear gap is conformation for North America. We show two stationary temperature/geopotential height patterns where warmer Arctic temperatures have reinforced existing tropospheric jet stream wave amplitudes over North America: a Greenland/Baffin Block pattern during December 2010 and an Alaska Ridge pattern during December 2017. Even with continuing Arctic warming over the past decade, other recent eastern US winter months were less susceptible for an Arctic linkage: the jet stream was represented by either zonal flow, progressive weather systems, or unfavorable phasing of the long wave pattern. The present analysis lays the scientific controversy over the validity of linkages to the inherent intermittency of jet stream dynamics, which provides only an occasional bridge between Arctic thermodynamic forcing and extended midlatitude weather events.

Weather effects on the patterns of people's everyday activities: a study using GPS traces of mobile phone users.

PubMed

Horanont, Teerayut; Phithakkitnukoon, Santi; Leong, Tuck W; Sekimoto, Yoshihide; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

2013-01-01

This study explores the effects that the weather has on people's everyday activity patterns. Temperature, rainfall, and wind speed were used as weather parameters. People's daily activity patterns were inferred, such as place visited, the time this took place, the duration of the visit, based on the GPS location traces of their mobile phones overlaid upon Yellow Pages information. Our analysis of 31,855 mobile phone users allowed us to infer that people were more likely to stay longer at eateries or food outlets, and (to a lesser degree) at retail or shopping areas when the weather is very cold or when conditions are calm (non-windy). When compared to people's regular activity patterns, certain weather conditions affected people's movements and activities noticeably at different times of the day. On cold days, people's activities were found to be more diverse especially after 10AM, showing greatest variations between 2PM and 6PM. A similar trend is observed between 10AM and midnight on rainy days, with people's activities found to be most diverse on days with heaviest rainfalls or on days when the wind speed was stronger than 4 km/h, especially between 10AM-1AM. Finally, we observed that different geographical areas of a large metropolis were impacted differently by the weather. Using data of urban infrastructure to characterize areas, we found strong correlations between weather conditions upon people's accessibility to trains. This study sheds new light on the influence of weather conditions on human behavior, in particular the choice of daily activities and how mobile phone data can be used to investigate the influence of environmental factors on urban dynamics.

Weather Effects on the Patterns of People's Everyday Activities: A Study Using GPS Traces of Mobile Phone Users

PubMed Central

Leong, Tuck W.; Sekimoto, Yoshihide; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

2013-01-01

This study explores the effects that the weather has on people's everyday activity patterns. Temperature, rainfall, and wind speed were used as weather parameters. People's daily activity patterns were inferred, such as place visited, the time this took place, the duration of the visit, based on the GPS location traces of their mobile phones overlaid upon Yellow Pages information. Our analysis of 31,855 mobile phone users allowed us to infer that people were more likely to stay longer at eateries or food outlets, and (to a lesser degree) at retail or shopping areas when the weather is very cold or when conditions are calm (non-windy). When compared to people's regular activity patterns, certain weather conditions affected people's movements and activities noticeably at different times of the day. On cold days, people's activities were found to be more diverse especially after 10AM, showing greatest variations between 2PM and 6PM. A similar trend is observed between 10AM and midnight on rainy days, with people's activities found to be most diverse on days with heaviest rainfalls or on days when the wind speed was stronger than 4 km/h, especially between 10AM–1AM. Finally, we observed that different geographical areas of a large metropolis were impacted differently by the weather. Using data of urban infrastructure to characterize areas, we found strong correlations between weather conditions upon people's accessibility to trains. This study sheds new light on the influence of weather conditions on human behavior, in particular the choice of daily activities and how mobile phone data can be used to investigate the influence of environmental factors on urban dynamics. PMID:24367481

The sensitivity of snowfall to weather states over Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norin, Lars; Devasthale, Abhay; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.

2017-09-01

For a high-latitude country like Sweden snowfall is an important contributor to the regional water cycle. Furthermore, snowfall impacts surface properties, affects atmospheric thermodynamics, has implications for traffic and logistics management, disaster preparedness, and also impacts climate through changes in surface albedo and turbulent heat fluxes. For Sweden it has been shown that large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, or weather states, are important for precipitation variability. Although the link between atmospheric circulation patterns and precipitation has been investigated for rainfall there are no studies focused on the sensitivity of snowfall to weather states over Sweden.In this work we investigate the response of snowfall to eight selected weather states. These weather states consist of four dominant wind directions together with cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation patterns and enhanced positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The presented analysis is based on multiple data sources, such as ground-based radar measurements, satellite observations, spatially interpolated in situ observations, and reanalysis data. The data from these sources converge to underline the sensitivity of falling snow over Sweden to the different weather states.In this paper we examine both average snowfall intensities and snowfall accumulations associated with the different weather states. It is shown that, even though the heaviest snowfall intensities occur during conditions with winds from the south-west, the largest contribution to snowfall accumulation arrives with winds from the south-east. Large differences in snowfall due to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation are shown as well as a strong effect of cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation patterns. Satellite observations are used to reveal the vertical structures of snowfall during the different weather states.

Weather Fundamentals: Climate & Seasons. [Videotape].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1998

The videos in this educational series for grades 4-7, help students understand the science behind weather phenomena through dramatic live-action footage, vivid animated graphics, detailed weather maps, and hands-on experiments. This episode (23 minutes), describes weather patterns and cycles around the globe. The various types of climates around…

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela

2011-01-01

The goal of this task was to upgrade to the existing severe weather database by adding observations from the 2010 warm season, update the verification dataset with results from the 2010 warm season, use statistical logistic regression analysis on the database and develop a new forecast tool. The AMU analyzed 7 stability parameters that showed the possibility of providing guidance in forecasting severe weather, calculated verification statistics for the Total Threat Score (TTS), and calculated warm season verification statistics for the 2010 season. The AMU also performed statistical logistic regression analysis on the 22-year severe weather database. The results indicated that the logistic regression equation did not show an increase in skill over the previously developed TTS. The equation showed less accuracy than TTS at predicting severe weather, little ability to distinguish between severe and non-severe weather days, and worse standard categorical accuracy measures and skill scores over TTS.

Historical Time Series of Extreme Convective Weather in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurila, T. K.; Mäkelä, A.; Rauhala, J.; Olsson, T.; Jylhä, K.

2016-12-01

Thunderstorms, lightning, tornadoes, downbursts, large hail and heavy precipitation are well-known for their impacts to human life. In the high latitudes as in Finland, these hazardous warm season convective weather events are focused in the summer season, roughly from May to September with peak in the midsummer. The position of Finland between the maritime Atlantic and the continental Asian climate zones makes possible large variability in weather in general which reflects also to the occurrence of severe weather; the hot, moist and extremely unstable air masses sometimes reach Finland and makes possible for the occurrence of extreme and devastating weather events. Compared to lower latitudes, the Finnish climate of severe convection is "moderate" and contains a large year-to-year variation; however, behind the modest annual average is hidden the climate of severe weather events that practically every year cause large economical losses and sometimes even losses of life. Because of the increased vulnerability of our modern society, these episodes have gained recently plenty of interest. During the decades, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has collected observations and damage descriptions of severe weather episodes in Finland; thunderstorm days (1887-present), annual number of lightning flashes (1960-present), tornados (1796-present), large hail (1930-present), heavy rainfall (1922-present). The research findings show e.g. that a severe weather event may occur practically anywhere in the country, although in general the probability of occurrence is smaller in the Northern Finland. This study, funded by the Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power Plant Safety (SAFIR), combines the individual Finnish severe weather time series' and examines their trends, cross-correlation and correlations with other atmospheric parameters. Furthermore, a numerical weather model (HARMONIE) simulation is performed for a historical severe weather case for analyzing how well the present state-of-the-art models grasp these small-scale weather phenomena. Our results give important background for estimating the Finnish severe weather climate in the future.

Enhancing the hydrogeological landscape (HGL) characterisation of the Greater Launceston area (GLA) through better understanding of dolerite weathering, stream water properties and a revised landscape evolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Leah; Nicholson, Allan; Cook, Wayne; Sweeney, Margaret

2014-05-01

In the Greater Launceston Area (GLA) in northern Tasmania, Australia, there is a widespread urban salinity problem with severe impacts on urban/peri-urban infrastructure in localised areas. Salinity patterns in the landscape (elevated flux to waterways; salt efflorescence at the land surface) could be related to: the underlying rock type, the thickness of regolith materials and hence the volume of the salt store, the landforms present and the amount of water passing over and through the landscape. In northern Tasmania secondary mineralogy on dolerite typically includes formation of Fe/Ca smectite phases (e.g. nontronite, saponite) and Fe-Ti oxides/sesquioxides (e.g. hematite, goethite) with some primary phases (e.g. Ca-plagioclase feldspar, augite) weathering through to a suite dominated by kaolinite clay and Fe-Ti oxides/sesquioxides. Deeply weathered profiles in the GLA have weathered to the kaolintite-clay dominant mineralogy and in places there are gibbsite/beidellite/hematite/goethite bauxites developed. Most existing salinity mapping emphasises salt manifestation over paleo-estuarine sediments of the Paleogene Tamar-Esk River system, so incorporation of deeply weathered Jurassic dolerite materials into the salt budget considerably augments the estimated potential hazard. Rapid stream surveys provide a snapshot of stream electrical conductivity (EC) over the study area at regular intervals allowing a broad evaluation of salt flux patterns in surfaces waters. Higher EC readings were obtained from selected streams draining: deeply weathered dolerite profiles (0.37 1.86 dS/m) and deeply weathered Paleogene paleo-estuarine sediments (0.49 to 1.16 dS/m). Lower values were measured on up-faulted dolerite blocks (<0.10 dS/m); moderately weathered, high relief dolerite (<0.03 dS/m), and in incised streams flowing over a rocky dolerite substrate (<0.03 dS/m). The patterns of stream EC reflect the nature of the regolith materials the streams drain, and match mapped patterns for distribution of deeply weathered Jurassic dolerite and moderately to deeply weathered bedded paleo-estuarine sediments of the Paleogene Tamar-Esk river system, some Quaternary terrace deposits along the Tamar and Esk Rivers; and some Holocene estuarine sediments. Recent geomorphic mapping has enabled development of a more comprehensive and consistent landscape evolution model that builds on existing knowledge. This model describes the influence of a progressively incising Tamar-Esk river system in response to episodic lowering of the local base level, with multiple episodes of valley widening as the river system stabilised after incision. Successive lowering events dissected earlier landforms, but locally remnant surfaces are preserved that represent former fluvial plain and terrace features. These processes were partially controlled by the structural configuration and contrasting resistance of the underlying lithologies, influencing the planform geometries of the rivers, and consequently the potential to preserve paleo-fluvial features. Because the Tamar River is an estuarine system, some of the lowermost preserved surfaces are likely to reflect marine processes (e.g. 5-7m; 10-12m ASL). The geomorphic mapping was conducted independently of the hydrogeological landscape (HGL) characterisation in the GLA, but there is strong correlation between the areas identified as having elevated salinity hazard (HGL) and newly mapped remnant surfaces in this landscape. This work complements HGL research and supports development of an increasingly rigorous evidence-based framework for GLA salinity hazard management.

Using PBL to Prepare Educators and Emergency Managers to Plan for Severe Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stalker, Sarah L.; Cullen, Theresa A.; Kloesel, Kevin

2015-01-01

Within the past 10 years severe weather has been responsible for an annual average of 278 fatalities in the United States (National Weather Service, 2013). During severe weather special populations are populations of high concentrations of people that cannot respond quickly. Schools show both of these characteristics. The average lead time for…

A stability analysis of AVE-4 severe weather soundings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, D. L.

1982-01-01

The stability and vertical structure of an average severe storm sounding, consisting of both thermodynamic and wind vertical profiles, were investigated to determine if they could be distinguished from an average lag sounding taken 3 to 6 hours prior to severe weather occurrence. The term average is defined here to indicate the arithmetic mean of a parameter, as a function of altitude, determined from a large number of available observations taken either close to severe weather occurrence, or else more than 3 hours before it occurs. The investigative computations were also done to help determine if a severe storm forecast or index could possibly be used or developed. These mean vertical profiles of thermodynamic and wind parameters as a function of severity of the weather, determined from manually digitized radar (MDR) categories are presented. Profile differences and stability index differences are presented along with the development of the Johnson Lag Index (JLI) which is determined entirely upon environmental vertical parameter differences between conditions 3 hours prior to severe weather, and severe weather itself.

Motor vehicle-bicycle crashes in Beijing: irregular maneuvers, crash patterns, and injury severity.

PubMed

Yan, Xinping; Ma, Ming; Huang, Helai; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wu, Chaozhong

2011-09-01

This research presents a comprehensive analysis of motor vehicle-bicycle crashes using 4 years of reported crash data (2004-2007) in Beijing. The interrelationship of irregular maneuvers, crash patterns and bicyclist injury severity are investigated by controlling for a variety of risk factors related to bicyclist demographics, roadway geometric design, road environment, etc. Results show that different irregular maneuvers are correlated with a number of risk factors at different roadway locations such as the bicyclist age and gender, weather and traffic condition. Furthermore, angle collisions are the leading pattern of motor vehicle-bicycle crashes, and different irregular maneuvers may lead to some specific crash patterns such as head-on or rear-end crashes. Orthokinetic scrape is more likely to result in running over bicyclists, which may lead to more severe injury. Moreover, bicyclist injury severity level could be elevated by specific crash patterns and risk factors including head-on and angle collisions, occurrence of running over bicyclists, night without streetlight, roads without median/division, higher speed limit, heavy vehicle involvement and older bicyclists. This study suggests installation of median, division between roadway and bikeway, and improvement of illumination on road segments. Reduced speed limit is also recommended at roadway locations with high bicycle traffic volume. Furthermore, it may be necessary to develop safety campaigns aimed at male, teenage and older bicyclists. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extreme weather-year sequences have nonadditive effects on environmental nitrogen losses.

PubMed

Iqbal, Javed; Necpalova, Magdalena; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Anex, Robert P; Bourguignon, Marie; Herzmann, Daryl; Mitchell, David C; Sawyer, John E; Zhu, Qing; Castellano, Michael J

2018-01-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather years, characterized by abnormal precipitation and temperature, are increasing. In isolation, these years have disproportionately large effects on environmental N losses. However, the sequence of extreme weather years (e.g., wet-dry vs. dry-wet) may affect cumulative N losses. We calibrated and validated the DAYCENT ecosystem process model with a comprehensive set of biogeophysical measurements from a corn-soybean rotation managed at three N fertilizer inputs with and without a winter cover crop in Iowa, USA. Our objectives were to determine: (i) how 2-year sequences of extreme weather affect 2-year cumulative N losses across the crop rotation, and (ii) if N fertilizer management and the inclusion of a winter cover crop between corn and soybean mitigate the effect of extreme weather on N losses. Using historical weather (1951-2013), we created nine 2-year scenarios with all possible combinations of the driest ("dry"), wettest ("wet"), and average ("normal") weather years. We analyzed the effects of these scenarios following several consecutive years of relatively normal weather. Compared with the normal-normal 2-year weather scenario, 2-year extreme weather scenarios affected 2-year cumulative NO 3 - leaching (range: -93 to +290%) more than N 2 O emissions (range: -49 to +18%). The 2-year weather scenarios had nonadditive effects on N losses: compared with the normal-normal scenario, the dry-wet sequence decreased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions while the wet-dry sequence increased 2-year cumulative N 2 O emissions. Although dry weather decreased NO 3 - leaching and N 2 O emissions in isolation, 2-year cumulative N losses from the wet-dry scenario were greater than the dry-wet scenario. Cover crops reduced the effects of extreme weather on NO 3 - leaching but had a lesser effect on N 2 O emissions. As the frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase, these data suggest that the sequence of interannual weather patterns can be used to develop short-term mitigation strategies that manipulate N fertilizer and crop rotation to maximize crop N uptake while reducing environmental N losses. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The use of weather data to predict non-recurring traffic congestion

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-08-01

This project will demonstrate the quantitative relationship between weather patterns and surface traffic conditions. The aviation and maritime industries use weather measurements and predictions as a normal part of operations, and this can be extende...

Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

PubMed

Shao, Wanyun; Goidel, Kirby

2016-11-01

What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents' perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate-related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15- and 19-year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15- and 19-year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, "seeing is not believing." Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions-rather than objectively measured weather conditions-influence climate-related attitudes. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

New Data On The Cathodoluminescence Of White Marbles: Interpretation Of Peaks And Relationships To Weathering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Guinea, J.; Crespo-Feo, E.; Correcher, V.; Iordanidis, A.; Charalampides, G.; Karamitrou-Mentessidi, G.

This work focus on the Thermoluminescence (TL), the Spatially Resolved Spectral Cathodoluminescence (CL) and Raman spectroscopy (Raman) of white marble specimens collected from the archaeological park of Aiani (Greece) and from patterns of Iceland calcite and Macael marble for comparison purposes. The spectra CL were measured with a high sensitivity cathodoluminescence spectrometer MonoCL3 of Gatan (UK) attached to an FEI-ESEM microscope (CL-ESEM). The experimental set of spectra CL curves of Aiani white marbles suggest that the blue band is more resistant to weathering in comparison with the red band which drops down easily under weathering. The comparison among CL spectra of CaCO3 patterns give a slight difference between the small 330 nm peak, detected in marble and not observed in the monocrystal pattern of Iceland calcite. The Backscattering Electron Dispersed (BSED) images of the white marble are similar to the CL monochromatic plots at 330 nm which highlight the surfaces with remarkable clarity, suggesting a CL emission-defect associated to the marble crystal interfaces, such as protons or hydroxyls. Conversely, the 395 nm monochromatic mapping depicts a CL image emitting from bulk and not from interfaces attributable to point defects or cationic activators in Ca2+ positions. The blue band of the spectra luminescence of marble is composed by several peaks associated to very different types of luminescent defects. This statement is not inconsequential since in archaeological TL dating of marbles the regenerated luminescence in the blue region of the spectrum is a serious difficulty and further research on this topic is necessary.

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, Pardeep; Patricola, Christina; Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Paciorek, Christopher; Collins, William

2015-04-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during early September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico against the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods across the South Platte River basin impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall, we adapt an existing event attribution paradigm of modelling an 'event that was' for September 2013 and comparing it to a modelled 'event that might have been' for that same time but for the absence of historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. Specifically, we first perform 'event that was' simulations with the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 12 km resolution over North America, driven by NCEP2 re-analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the re-analysis to 'event that might have been conditions' by modifying atmospheric greenhouse gas and other pollutant concentrations, temperature, humidity, and winds, as well as sea ice coverage, and sea-surface temperatures - all according to estimates from global climate model simulations. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving re-analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible mechanisms responsible for heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013. Our model results suggests that, given an insignificant change in the pattern of large-scale driving weather, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour under anthropogenic climate warming leading to a substantial increase in the probability of heavy rainfall occurring over the South Platte River basin in September 2013.

Generation of High Resolution Water Vapour Fields from GPS Observations and Integration With ECMWF and MODIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, C.; Li, Z.; Penna, N. T.

2016-12-01

Precipitable water vapour (PWV) can be routinely retrieved from ground-based GPS arrays in all-weather conditions and also in real-time. But to provide dense spatial coverage maps, for example for calibrating SAR images, for correcting atmospheric effects in Network RTK GPS positioning and which may be used for numerical weather prediction, the pointwise GPS PWV measurements must be interpolated. Several previous interpolation studies have addressed the importance of the elevation dependency of water vapour, but it is often a challenge to separate elevation-dependent tropospheric delays from turbulent components. We present a tropospheric turbulence iterative decomposition model that decouples the total PWV into (i) a stratified component highly correlated with topography which therefore delineates the vertical troposphere profile, and (ii) a turbulent component resulting from disturbance processes (e.g., severe weather) in the troposphere which trigger uncertain patterns in space and time. We will demonstrate that the iterative decoupled interpolation model generates improved dense tropospheric water vapour fields compared with elevation dependent models, with similar accuracies obtained over both flat and mountainous terrain, as well as for both inland and coastal areas. We will also show that our GPS-based model may be enhanced with ECMWF zenith tropospheric delay and MODIS PWV, producing multi-data sources high temporal-spatial resolution PWV fields. These fields were applied to Sentinel-1 SAR interferograms over the Los Angeles region, for which a maximum noise reduction due to atmosphere artifacts reached 85%. The results reveal that the turbulent troposphere noise, especially those in a SAR image, often occupy more than 50% of the total zenith tropospheric delay and exert systematic, rather than random patterns.

Funnel Beaker weather (6200-4900 cal BP) - reconstructed from the palaeolimnological record of synchronously deposited varves in northern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreibrodt, Stefan; Zahrer, Jürgen; Brauer, Achim

2013-04-01

Depositional patterns of synchronously deposited varves of Lake Belauer See and Lake Poggensee (northern Germany) were studied on thin sections under the microscope comparatively. Events and trends that occurred synchronously in the lake systems were detected and interpret as limnologic responses to supra-regional extrinsic (climate) drivers. The different thresholds of the compared lake systems implied by different lake size were utilized to infer about weather conditions. For Lake Belauer See microfacies types of sub-recent varves were proved to reflect responses of certain meteorological conditions (e.g. severity of winters). A short weather anomaly at around 5950 cal BP was detected. Cold summers of about 40 successive years (probably with sudden frost events) lead to breaks of the thermal summer stratification and the associated carbonate precipitation. Instead renewed blooms of planctic diatoms occurred. The subsequent interval of the Funnel Beaker Culture seems to have experienced a period with favorable wea¬ther conditions, with warm summers and not extra-ordinary severe winters. Between ca. 5400 and 5340 cal BP an interval with pronounced warm winters is indicated. The favorable weather conditions termina¬ted abruptly at around 5275 cal BP when the weather (in particular summers) became colder. The comparison of the sediment sequences also provides evidence for the asynchronic onset of anthropogenic activity in the catchment areas of the lakes. A significant increase of minerogenic matter (quartz grains) indication soil erosion in the lake catchment started at ca. 3850 cal BC in Lake Poggensee, and at ca. 3500 cal BC in Lake Belau. Cycles of minerogenic input have been detected with duration of 20-25 years. Whether these cycles could represent slash and burn cycles has to be studied further.

Seasonality and weather conditions jointly drive flight activity patterns of aquatic and terrestrial chironomids.

PubMed

Vebrová, Lucie; van Nieuwenhuijzen, Andre; Kolář, Vojtěch; Boukal, David S

2018-06-19

Chironomids, a major invertebrate taxon in many standing freshwaters, rely on adult flight to reach new suitable sites, yet the impact of weather conditions on their flight activity is little understood. We investigated diel and seasonal flight activity patterns of aquatic and terrestrial chironomids in a reclaimed sandpit area and analysed how weather conditions and seasonality influenced their total abundance and species composition. Air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and air pressure significantly affected total flight activity of both groups, but not in the same way. We identified an intermediate temperature and humidity optimum for the flight activity of terrestrial chironomids, which contrasted with weaker, timescale-dependent relationships in aquatic species. Flight activity of both groups further declined with wind speed and increased with air pressure. Observed flight patterns also varied in time on both daily and seasonal scale. Flight activity of both groups peaked in the evenings after accounting for weather conditions but, surprisingly, aquatic and terrestrial chironomids used partly alternating time windows for dispersal during the season. This may be driven by different seasonal trends of key environmental variables in larval habitats and hence implies that species phenologies and conditions experienced by chironomid larvae (and probably other aquatic insects with short-lived adults) influence adult flight patterns more than weather conditions. Our results provide detailed insights into the drivers of chironomid flight activity and highlight the methodological challenges arising from the inherent collinearity of weather characteristics and their diurnal and seasonal cycles.

Shift in fire-ecosystems and weather changes

Treesearch

Bongani Finiza

2013-01-01

During recent decades too much focus fell on fire suppression and fire engineering methods. Little attention has been given to understanding the shift in the changing fire weather resulting from the global change in weather patterns. Weather change have gradually changed the way vegetation cover respond to fire occurrence and brought about changes in fire behavior and...

Microprocessors as a tool in determining correlation between sferics and tornado genesis: an update

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Witte, D.R.

1980-09-01

Sferics - atmospheric electromagnetic radiation - can be directly correlated, it is believed, to the genesis of tornadoes and other severe weather. Sferics are generated by lightning and other atmospheric disturbances that are not yet entirely understood. The recording and analysis of the patterns in which sferics events occur, it is hoped, will lead to accurate real-time prediction of tornadoes and other severe weather. Collection of the tremendous amount of sferics data generated by one storm system becomes cumbersome when correlation between at least two stations is necessary for triangulation. Microprocessor-based computing systems have made the task of data collectionmore » and manipulation inexpensive and manageable. The original paper on this subject delivered at MAECON '78 dealt with hardware interfacing. Presented were hardware and software tradeoffs, as well as design and construction techniques to yield a cost effective system. This updated paper presents an overview of where the data comes from, how it is collected, and some current manipulation and interpretation techniques used.« less

An Analysis Framework Using Satellite Remote Sensing to Understand Landscape Patterns of High Severity Burns from Wildfires in Coastal Woodlands of California and Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potter, C. S.

2016-12-01

The central California coastal landscape has a history of frequent large wildfires that have threatened or destroyed many residential structures at the wildland interface. This study starts with the largest wildfires on the Central Coast over the past 30 years and analyzes the fraction and landscape patterns of high severity burned (HBS) areas from the Landsat-based Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) data base as a function of weather conditions and topographic variations. Results indicate that maximum temperatures at the time of fire and the previous 12 months of rainfall explained a significant portion of the variation in total area burned and the fraction of HBS area. Average patch size and aggregation metrics of HBS areas were included in the analysis framework. Within each burned area, the Landsat (30-meter resolution) differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), a continuous index of vegetation burn severity, was correlated against slope, aspect, and elevation to better understand landscape level-controls over HBS patches. The Landsat dNBR analysis framework is being extended next to the island of Sardinia, Italy for a comparison of Mediterranean climates and wildfire patterns since the mid-1980s.

A Study into the Impact of Physical Structures on the Runway Velocity Field at the Atlantic City International Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, David, Jr.; Manson, Russell; Trout, Joseph; Decicco, Nicholas; Rios, Manny

2015-04-01

Wake vortices are generated by airplanes in flight. These vortices decay slowly and may persist for several minutes after their creation. These vortices and associated smaller scale turbulent structures present a hazard to incoming flights. It is for this reason that incoming flights are timed to arrive after these vortices have dissipated. Local weather conditions, mainly prevailing winds, can affect the transport and evolution of these vortices; therefore, there is a need to fully understand localized wind patterns at the airport-sized mircoscale. Here we have undertaken a computational investigation into the impacts of localized wind flows and physical structures on the velocity field at Atlantic City International Airport. The simulations are undertaken in OpenFOAM, an open source computational fluid dynamics software package, using an optimized geometric mesh of the airport. Initial conditions for the simulations are based on historical data with the option to run simulations based on projected weather conditions imported from the Weather Research & Forcasting (WRF) Model. Sub-grid scale turbulence is modeled using a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) approach. The initial results gathered from the WRF Model simulations and historical weather data analysis are presented elsewhere.

On the linkage between Arctic sea ice and Mid-latitude weather pattern: the situation in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, S.; Zhang, Y.; Wu, Q.

2017-12-01

The influence of Arctic changes on the weather patterns in the highly populated mid-latitude is a complex and controversial topic with considerable uncertainties such as the low signal-to-noise, ill-suited metrics of circulation changes and the missing of dynamical understanding. In this study, the possible linkage between the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the wintertime weather patterns in East Asia is investigated by comparing groups of statistical and diagnostic analyses. Our study shows a robust relationship between the early autumn SIC in Barents, Kara, Laptev and East Siberia Sea and the energies of wintertime transient activities corresponding to the weather patterns over East Asia on inter-annual time scales. With the reduction of SIC in autumn, the wintertime synoptic (2-10 day) kinetic energy in the north of Eurasia decreases while the low-frequency (10-30 days) kinetic energy, which corresponds to persistent weather patterns, exhibits an evident and dominant increase over the north of Caspian Sea, Lake Baikal and the Ural Mountain. With the reduction of SIC, the intra-seasonal temperature fluctuations present coherent changes over a broader region as well, with significant increase of the low-frequency variability in the vast north of Tibet Plateau and East Asia. The changes of the low-frequency transient activities may be attributed to the slowly southward propagating wave energies from polar regions. However, no consistent stratosphere signals are found associated with such linkage on inter-annual time scales.

NASA GSFC's Role in the US Space Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simpson, James E.

2004-01-01

The paper discussss the GSFC research interests and how GSFC contributes to solve some of most basic questions Humans having been asking for thousands of years. How big is universe? How old is the universe? Will Humans and industrialization of the Earth change the climate significantly? Can Humans live in space? How does the Sun affect life on Earth? Goddard s role in Earth Science is very unique. We buy and build instruments that collect data about weather around the world. By flying those instruments on spacecraft, we have a unique vantage point to observe the weather patterns on a global scale. The best example is a satellite network called GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) which produces the weather pictures and videos you see on the nightly news and weather channel. Earth Science is another area of great interest to Goddard scientists and spacecraft designers. This photo of an oil fire in Iraq taken on March 2Ist of this year shows the down range effect pollution will have on entire region. Space Weather has become extremely important in the Space business. Satellites not only can become inoperable due to the occasional high level of radiation but astronauts can be exposed to dangerous levels of radiation. Space Weather is actually an issue when planning Extra Vehicular Activities (EVA). At Goddard, our operation of the Hubble Space Telescope has meant we have worked closely with several Shuttle crews over the years.

VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) Research Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greaves, J. R. (Editor)

1983-01-01

The VAS, an experimental instrument flown onboard Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), is capable of achieving mutlispectral imagery of atmospheric temperature, water vapor, and cloudiness patterns over short time intervals. In addition, this instrument provides an atmospheric sounding capability from geosynchronous orbit. The VAS demonstration is an effort for evaluating the VAS instrument's performance, and for demonstrating the capabilities of a VAS prototype system to provide useful geosynchronous satellite data for supporting weather forecasts and atmospheric research. The demonstration evaluates the performance of the VAS Instruments on GOES-4-5, and -6, develops research oriented and prototype/operational VAS data processing systems, determines the accuracy of certain basic and derived meteorological parameters that can be obtained from the VAS instrument, and assesses the utility of VAS derived information in analyzing severe weather situations.

Weather impacts on single-vehicle truck crash injury severity.

PubMed

Naik, Bhaven; Tung, Li-Wei; Zhao, Shanshan; Khattak, Aemal J

2016-09-01

The focus of this paper is on illustrating the feasibility of aggregating data from disparate sources to investigate the relationship between single-vehicle truck crash injury severity and detailed weather conditions. Specifically, this paper presents: (a) a methodology that combines detailed 15-min weather station data with crash and roadway data, and (b) an empirical investigation of the effects of weather on crash-related injury severities of single-vehicle truck crashes. Random parameters ordinal and multinomial regression models were used to investigate crash injury severity under different weather conditions, taking into account the individual unobserved heterogeneity. The adopted methodology allowed consideration of environmental, roadway, and climate-related variables in single-vehicle truck crash injury severity. Results showed that wind speed, rain, humidity, and air temperature were linked with single-vehicle truck crash injury severity. Greater recorded wind speed added to the severity of injuries in single-vehicle truck crashes in general. Rain and warmer air temperatures were linked to more severe crash injuries in single-vehicle truck crashes while higher levels of humidity were linked to less severe injuries. Random parameters ordered logit and multinomial logit, respectively, revealed some individual heterogeneity in the data and showed that integrating comprehensive weather data with crash data provided useful insights into factors associated with single-vehicle truck crash injury severity. The research provided a practical method that combined comprehensive 15-min weather station data with crash and roadway data, thereby providing useful insights into crash injury severity of single-vehicle trucks. Those insights are useful for future truck driver educational programs and for truck safety in different weather conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

Treesearch

Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

1964-01-01

Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

Dynamically Evolving Sectors for Convective Weather Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drew, Michael C.

2010-01-01

A new strategy for altering existing sector boundaries in response to blocking convective weather is presented. This method seeks to improve the reduced capacity of sectors directly affected by weather by moving boundaries in a direction that offers the greatest capacity improvement. The boundary deformations are shared by neighboring sectors within the region in a manner that preserves their shapes and sizes as much as possible. This reduces the controller workload involved with learning new sector designs. The algorithm that produces the altered sectors is based on a force-deflection mesh model that needs only nominal traffic patterns and the shape of the blocking weather for input. It does not require weather-affected traffic patterns that would have to be predicted by simulation. When compared to an existing optimal sector design method, the sectors produced by the new algorithm are more similar to the original sector shapes, resulting in sectors that may be more suitable for operational use because the change is not as drastic. Also, preliminary results show that this method produces sectors that can equitably distribute the workload of rerouted weather-affected traffic throughout the region where inclement weather is present. This is demonstrated by sector aircraft count distributions of simulated traffic in weather-affected regions.

Some Aspects of Forecasting Severe Thunderstorms during Cool-Season Return-Flow Episodes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, Steven J.

1992-08-01

Historically, the Gulf of Mexico has been considered a primary source of water vapor that influences the weather for much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Although severe thunderstorms and tornadoes occur most frequently during the spring and summer months, the periodic transport of Gulf moisture inland ahead of traveling baroclinic waves can result in significant severe-weather episodes during the cool season.To gain insight into the short-range skill in forecasting surface synoptic patterns associated with moisture return from the Gulf, operational numerical weather prediction models from the National Meteorological Center were examined. Sea level pressure fields from the Limited-Area Fine-Mesh Model (LFM), Nested Grid Model (NGM), and the aviation (AVN) run of the Global Spectral Model, valid 48 h after initial data time, were evaluated for three cool-season cases that preceded severe local storm outbreaks. The NGM and AVN provided useful guidance in forecasting the onset of return flow along the Gulf coast. There was a slight tendency for these models to be slightly slow in the development of return flow. In contrast the LFM typically overforecasts the occurrence of return flow and tends to `open the Gulf' from west to east too quickly.Although the low-level synoptic pattern may be forecast correctly, the overall prediction process is hampered by a data void over the Gulf. It is hypothesized that when the return-flow moisture is located over the Gulf, model forecasts of stability and the resultant operational severe local storm forecasts are less skillful compared to situations when the moisture has spread inland already. This hypothesis is tested by examining the performance of the initial second-day (day 2) severe thunderstorm outlook issued by the National Severe Storms Forecast Center during the Gulf of Mexico Experiment (GUFMEX) in early 1988.It has been found that characteristically different air masses were present along the Gulf coast prior to the issuance of outlooks that accurately predicted the occurrence of severe thunderstorms versus outlooks that did not verify well. Unstable air masses with ample low-level moisture were in place along the coast prior to the issuance of the `good' day 2 outlooks, whereas relatively dry, stable air masses were present before the issuance of `false-alarm' outlooks. In the latter cases, large errors in the NGM 48-h lifted-index predictions were located north of the Gulf coast.

Projecting Future Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest with High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Carrillo, C. M.

2014-12-01

Most severe weather during the North American monsoon in the Southwest U.S. occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. Our objective is to project how monsoon severe weather is changing due to anthropogenic global warming. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis (35 km grid spacing), generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model during the period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather events, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions of instability and precipitable water, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 24h at a convective-permitting scale (2 km grid spacing). Changes in the character of severe weather events within this period likely reflect long-term climate change driven by anthropogenic forcing. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring per the downscaled renalaysis and available observational data. The CMIP5 models we are downscaling (HadGEM and MPI-ECHAM6) will be included as part of North American CORDEX. The regional model experimental design for severe weather event projection reasonably accounts for the known operational forecast prerequisites for severe monsoon weather. The convective-permitting simulations show that monsoon convection appears to be reasonably well captured with the use of the dynamically downscaled reanalysis, in comparison to Stage IV precipitation data. The regional model tends to initiate convection too early, though correctly simulates the diurnal maximum in convection in the afternoon and subsequent westward propagation of thunderstorms. Projected changes in extreme event precipitation will be described in relation to the long-term changes in thermodynamic and dynamic forcing mechanisms for severe weather. Results from this project will be used for climate change impacts assessment for U.S. military installations in the region.

National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

MedlinePlus

... Education & Outreach About the SPC SPC FAQ About Tornadoes About Derechos Video Lecture Series WCM Page Enh. ... Convective/Tropical Weather Flooding Winter Weather Non-Precipitation Tornado Watch Tornado Warning* Severe Thunderstorm Watch Severe Thunderstorm ...

Analysis of Impact of Tropical Cyclone Blance on Rainfall at Kupang Region Based on Atmospheric Condition and Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roguna, S.; Saragih, I. J. A.; Siregar, P. S.; Julius, A. M.

2018-04-01

The Tropical Depression previously identified on March 3, 2017, at Arafuru Sea has grown to Tropical Cyclone Blance on March 5, 2017. The existence of Tropical Cyclone Blance gave impacts like increasing rainfall for some regions in Indonesia until March 7, 2017, such as Kupang. The increase of rainfall cannot be separated from the atmospheric dynamics related to convection processes and the formation of clouds. Analysis of weather parameters is made such as vorticity to observe vertical motion over the study area, vertical velocity to see the speed of lift force in the atmosphere, wind to see patterns of air mass distribution and rainfall to see the increase of rainfall compared to several days before the cyclone. Analysis of satellite imagery data is used as supporting analysis to see clouds imagery and movement direction of the cyclone. The results of weather parameters analysis show strong vorticity and lift force of air mass support the growth of Cumulonimbus clouds, cyclonic patterns on wind streamline and significant increase of rainfall compared to previous days. The results of satellite imagery analysis show the convective clouds over Kupang and surrounding areas when this phenomena and cyclone pattern moved down from Arafuru Sea towards the western part of Australia.

Trusted Spotter Network Austria - a new standard to utilize crowdsourced weather and impact observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krennert, Thomas; Kaltenberger, Rainer; Pistotnik, Georg; Holzer, Alois M.; Zeiler, Franz; Stampfl, Mathias

2018-05-01

Information from voluntary storm spotters has been an increasingly important part for the severe weather warning process at the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie and Geodynamik (ZAMG), Austria's National Weather Service, for almost 15 years. In 2010 a collaboration was formalized and an annual training was established to educate voluntary observers into Trusted Spotters. The return of this investment is a higher credibility of their observations after these spotters have undergone a basic meteorological training and have become aware of their responsibility. The European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) was included to this collaboration to adopt their successful quality control system of severe weather reports, which is employed in the European Severe Weather Database ESWD. That way, reports from Trusted Spotters automatically obtain a higher quality flag, which enables a faster processing by forecasters on duty for severe weather warnings, when time is a critical issue. The concept of combining training for voluntary storm spotters and a thorough quality management was recognized as a Best Practice Model by the European Meteorological Society. We propose to apply this concept also in other European countries and present its advancement into an even broader, pan-European approach. The European Weather Observer app EWOB, recently released by ESSL, provides a novel and easy-to-handle tool to submit weather and respective impact observations. We promote its use to provide better data and information for a further real-time improvement of severe weather warnings.

POPULATION SYNCHRONY WITHIN AND AMONG LEPIDOPTERA SPECIES IN RELATION TO WEATHER, PHYLOGENY, AND LARVEL PHENOLOGY

EPA Science Inventory

1. The population dynamics of native herbivore species in central Appalachian deciduous forests were studied by analysing patterns of synchrony among intra- and interspecific populations and weather. 2. Spatial synchrony of 10 Lepidoptera species and three weather variables (min...

Decay patterns of brick wall in atmospheric environment: a possible analogue to rock weathering?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prikryl, Richard; Weishauptová, Zuzana; Přikrylová, Jiřina; Jablonský, Jakub

2015-04-01

This study is focused on the decay of bricks exposed in enclosing wall of the Regional maternal hospital in Prague city centre (Czech Republic). The hospital, listed as a Czech architectural monument, has been constructed from locally produced bricks in neo-Gothic style in the period of 1867-1875. The bricks of the enclosing wall show sequence of decay patterns that resemble weathering forms observable on monuments built of natural stone. This study aims to study the observed decay patterns by means of in situ mapping and by analyses of decayed material (optical microscopy, SEM/EDS, X-ray diffraction, Hg-porosimetry, water soluble salts analysis) and to interpret them based on the phase composition and other properties of bricks. Finally, the decay patterns of studied brick wall are compared to known weathering sequences on porous rocks (both on natural outcrops and on artistic monuments).

Weather model performance on extreme rainfall events simulation's over Western Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, S. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Ferreira, J.; Nunes, J. P.; Kaiser, J. J.; Rocha, A.

2012-08-01

This study evaluates the performance of the WRF-ARW numerical weather model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed for the December month of 2009, during the Portugal Mainland rainy season. The heavy rainfall to extreme heavy rainfall periods were due to several low surface pressure's systems associated with frontal surfaces. The total amount of precipitation for December exceeded, in average, the climatological mean for the 1971-2000 time period in +89 mm, varying from 190 mm (south part of the country) to 1175 mm (north part of the country). Three model runs were conducted to assess possible improvements in model performance: (1) the WRF-ARW is forced with the initial fields from a global domain model (RunRef); (2) data assimilation for a specific location (RunObsN) is included; (3) nudging is used to adjust the analysis field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated against an observed hourly precipitation dataset of 15 rainfall stations using several statistical parameters. The WRF-ARW model reproduced well the temporal rainfall patterns but tended to overestimate precipitation amounts. The RunGridN simulation provided the best results but model performance of the other two runs was good too, so that the selected extreme rainfall episode was successfully reproduced.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfirerisk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in MIDDS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark M.

2010-01-01

The goal of this task was to upgrade the severe weather database from the previous phase by adding weather observations from the years 2004 - 2009, re-analyze the data to determine the important parameters, make adjustments to the index weights depending on the analysis results, and update the MIDDS GUI. The added data increased the period of record from 15 to 21 years. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. Four of the stability indices showed increased severe weather predication. The Total Threat Score (TTS) of the previous work was verified for the warm season of 2009 with very good skill. The TTS Probability of Detection (POD) was 88% and the False alarm rate (FAR) of 8%. Based on the results of the analyses, the MIDDS Severe Weather Worksheet GUI was updated to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters and synoptic-scale dynamics.

SSSNOW Project: Helping Make Science Cool for Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huff, Kenneth; Lange, Catherine

2010-01-01

In the atmosphere or on the ground, snow provides students with unique opportunities to discover winter weather patterns. Traditionally, when students study weather, it is limited to the collection of data one would see on a weather report. However, the interdisciplinary Students Synthesizing Snow data in Natural Objective Ways (SSSNOW) project…

Long-term patterns and short-term dynamics of stream solutes and suspended sediment in a rapidly weathering tropical watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanley, James B.; McDowell, William H.; Stallard, Robert F.

2011-07-01

The 326 ha Río Icacos watershed in the tropical wet forest of the Luquillo Mountains, northeastern Puerto Rico, is underlain by granodiorite bedrock with weathering rates among the highest in the world. We pooled stream chemistry and total suspended sediment (TSS) data sets from three discrete periods: 1983-1987, 1991-1997, and 2000-2008. During this period three major hurricanes crossed the site: Hugo in 1989, Hortense in 1996, and Georges in 1998. Stream chemistry reflects sea salt inputs (Na, Cl, and SO4), and high weathering rates of the granodiorite (Ca, Mg, Si, and alkalinity). During rainfall, stream composition shifts toward that of precipitation, diluting 90% or more in the largest storms, but maintains a biogeochemical watershed signal marked by elevated K and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. DOC exhibits an unusual "boomerang" pattern, initially increasing with flow but then decreasing at the highest flows as it becomes depleted and/or vigorous overland flow minimizes contact with watershed surfaces. TSS increased markedly with discharge (power function slope 1.54), reflecting the erosive power of large storms in a landslide-prone landscape. The relations of TSS and most solute concentrations with stream discharge were stable through time, suggesting minimal long-term effects from repeated hurricane disturbance. Nitrate concentration, however, increased about threefold in response to hurricanes then returned to baseline over several years following a pseudo first-order decay pattern. The combined data sets provide insight about important hydrologic pathways, a long-term perspective to assess response to hurricanes, and a framework to evaluate future climate change in tropical ecosystems.

Environmental tracers for elucidating the weathering process in a phosphogypsum disposal site: Implications for restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-López, Rafael; Nieto, José M.; de la Rosa, Jesús D.; Bolívar, Juan P.

2015-10-01

This study provides geochemical data with the aim of identifying and tracing the weathering of phosphogypsum wastes stack-piled directly on salt-marshes of the Tinto River (Estuary of Huelva, SW Spain). With that purpose, different types of highly-polluted acid solutions were collected in the stack. Connection between these solutions and the estuarine environment was studied by geochemical tracers, such as rare earth elements (REE) and their North American Shale Composite (NASC)-normalized patterns and Cl/Br ratios. Phosphogypsum-related wastewaters include process water stored on the surface, pore-water contained in the phosphogypsum profile and edge outflow water emerging from inside the stack. Edge outflow waters are produced by waterlogging at the contact between phosphogypsum and the nearly impermeable marsh surface and discharge directly into the estuary. Process water shows geochemical characteristics typical of phosphate fertilizers, i.e. REE patterns with an evident enrichment of heavy-REE (HREE) with respect to middle-REE (MREE) and light-REE (LREE). By contrast, REE patterns of deeper pore-water and edge outflows are identical to those of Tinto River estuary waters, with a clear enrichment of MREE relative to LREE and HREE denoting influence of acid mine drainage. Cl/Br ratios of these solutions are very close to that of seawater, which also supports its estuarine origin. These findings clearly show that process water is not chemically connected with edge outflows through pore-waters, as was previously believed. Phosphogypsum weathering likely occurs by an upward flow of seawater from the marsh because of overpressure and permeability differences. Several recommendations are put forward in this study to route restoration actions, such as developing treatment systems to improve the quality of the edge outflow waters before discharging to the receiving environment.

Long-term patterns and short-term dynamics of stream solutes and suspended sediment in a rapidly weathering tropical watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanley, James B.; McDowell, William H.; Stallard, Robert F.

2011-01-01

The 326 ha Río Icacos watershed in the tropical wet forest of the Luquillo Mountains, northeastern Puerto Rico, is underlain by granodiorite bedrock with weathering rates among the highest in the world. We pooled stream chemistry and total suspended sediment (TSS) data sets from three discrete periods: 1983-1987, 1991-1997, and 2000-2008. During this period three major hurricanes crossed the site: Hugo in 1989, Hortense in 1996, and Georges in 1998. Stream chemistry reflects sea salt inputs (Na, Cl, and SO4), and high weathering rates of the granodiorite (Ca, Mg, Si, and alkalinity). During rainfall, stream composition shifts toward that of precipitation, diluting 90% or more in the largest storms, but maintains a biogeochemical watershed signal marked by elevated K and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. DOC exhibits an unusual "boomerang" pattern, initially increasing with flow but then decreasing at the highest flows as it becomes depleted and/or vigorous overland flow minimizes contact with watershed surfaces. TSS increased markedly with discharge (power function slope 1.54), reflecting the erosive power of large storms in a landslide-prone landscape. The relations of TSS and most solute concentrations with stream discharge were stable through time, suggesting minimal long-term effects from repeated hurricane disturbance. Nitrate concentration, however, increased about threefold in response to hurricanes then returned to baseline over several years following a pseudo first-order decay pattern. The combined data sets provide insight about important hydrologic pathways, a long-term perspective to assess response to hurricanes, and a framework to evaluate future climate change in tropical ecosystems.

Long-term patterns and short-term dynamics of stream solutes and suspended sediment in a rapidly weathering tropical watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanley, J.B.; McDowell, W.H.; Stallard, R.F.

2011-01-01

The 326 ha R??o Icacos watershed in the tropical wet forest of the Luquillo Mountains, northeastern Puerto Rico, is underlain by granodiorite bedrock with weathering rates among the highest in the world. We pooled stream chemistry and total suspended sediment (TSS) data sets from three discrete periods: 1983-1987, 1991-1997, and 2000-2008. During this period three major hurricanes crossed the site: Hugo in 1989, Hortense in 1996, and Georges in 1998. Stream chemistry reflects sea salt inputs (Na, Cl, and SO4), and high weathering rates of the granodiorite (Ca, Mg, Si, and alkalinity). During rainfall, stream composition shifts toward that of precipitation, diluting 90% or more in the largest storms, but maintains a biogeochemical watershed signal marked by elevated K and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. DOC exhibits an unusual "boomerang" pattern, initially increasing with flow but then decreasing at the highest flows as it becomes depleted and/or vigorous overland flow minimizes contact with watershed surfaces. TSS increased markedly with discharge (power function slope 1.54), reflecting the erosive power of large storms in a landslide-prone landscape. The relations of TSS and most solute concentrations with stream discharge were stable through time, suggesting minimal long-term effects from repeated hurricane disturbance. Nitrate concentration, however, increased about threefold in response to hurricanes then returned to baseline over several years following a pseudo first-order decay pattern. The combined data sets provide insight about important hydrologic pathways, a long-term perspective to assess response to hurricanes, and a framework to evaluate future climate change in tropical ecosystems. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Frequency analyses for recent regional floods in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melcher, Nick B.; Martinez, Patsy G.; ,

1996-01-01

During 1993-95, significant floods that resulted in record-high river stages, loss of life, and significant property damage occurred in the United States. The floods were caused by unique global weather patterns that produced large amounts of rain over large areas. Standard methods for flood-frequency analyses may not adequately consider the probability of recurrence of these global weather patterns.

Evaluation of several finishes on severely weathered wood

Treesearch

R. Sam Williams; Peter Sotos; William Feist

1999-01-01

Alkyd-, oil-modified-latex-, and latex-based finishes were applied to severely weathered western redcedar and redwood boards that did not have any surface treatment to ameliorate the weathered surface prior to painting. Six finishes were evaluated annually for 11 years for cracking, flaking, erosion, mildew growth, discoloration, and general appearance. Low-solids-...

Constructing Data Albums for Significant Severe Weather Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, Ethan; Zavodsky, Bradley; Ramachandran, Rahul; Kulkarni, Ajinkya; Li, Xiang; Bakare, Rohan; Basyal, Sabin; Conover, Helen

2014-01-01

Data Albums provide a one-stop-shop combining datasets from NASA, NWS, online new sources, and social media. Data Albums will help meteorologists better understand severe weather events to improve predictive models. Developed a new ontology for severe weather based off current hurricane Data Album and selected relevant NASA datasets for inclusion.

Analyzing pedestrian crash injury severity under different weather conditions.

PubMed

Li, Duo; Ranjitkar, Prakash; Zhao, Yifei; Yi, Hui; Rashidi, Soroush

2017-05-19

Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users due to the lack of mass, speed, and protection compared to other types of road users. Adverse weather conditions may reduce road friction and visibility and thus increase crash risk. There is limited evidence and considerable discrepancy with regard to impacts of weather conditions on injury severity in the literature. This article investigated factors affecting pedestrian injury severity level under different weather conditions based on a publicly available accident database in Great Britain. Accident data from Great Britain that are publicly available through the STATS19 database were analyzed. Factors associated with pedestrian, driver, and environment were investigated using a novel approach that combines a classification and regression tree with random forest approach. Significant severity predictors under fine weather conditions from the models included speed limits, pedestrian age, light conditions, and vehicle maneuver. Under adverse weather conditions, the significant predictors were pedestrian age, vehicle maneuver, and speed limit. Elderly pedestrians are associated with higher pedestrian injury severities. Higher speed limits increase pedestrian injury severity. Based on the research findings, recommendations are provided to improve pedestrian safety.

Damage to southern Michigan conifers during the winter of 1976-77

Treesearch

Jonathan W. Wright; Donald DeHayes; Walter A. Lemmien

1977-01-01

In southern Michigan, the winter of 1976-1977 was marked by unseasonably cold weather in early December, prolonged cold weather in December and January, severe drought at the onset of cold weather, and by higher than average absolute minimum temperatures. Damage, presumably from the early December cold weather, was severe to southern seedlots of ponderosa pine,...

Rocks and Rain: orographic precipitation and the form of mountain ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roe, G. H.; Anders, A. M.; Durran, D. R.; Montgomery, D. R.; Hallet, B.

2005-12-01

In mountainous landscapes patterns of erosion reflect patterns of precipitation that are, in turn, controlled by the orography. Ultimately therefore, the feedbacks between orography and the climate it creates are responsible for the sculpting of mountain ranges. Key questions concerning these interactions are: 1) how robust are patterns of precipitation on geologic time scales? and 2) how do those patterns affect landscape form? Since climate is by definition the statistics of weather, there is tremendous information to be gleaned from how patterns of precipitation vary between different weather events. However up to now sparse measurements and computational limitations have hampered our knowledge of such variations. For the Olympics in Washington State, a characteristic midlatitude mountain range, we report results from a high-resolution, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model and a dense network of precipitation gauges. Down to scales around 10 km, the patterns of precipitation are remarkably robust both storm-by-storm and year-to-year, lending confidence that they are indeed persistent on the relevant time scales. Secondly, the consequences of the coupled interactions are presented using a landscape evolution model coupled with a simple model of orographic precipitation that is able to substantially reproduce the observed precipitation patterns.

Comparison Between GOES-12 Overshooting-Top Detections, WSR-88D Radar Reflectivity, and Severe Storm Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dworak, Richard; Bedka, Kristopher; Brunner, Jason; Feltz, Wayne

2012-01-01

Studies have found that convective storms with overshooting-top (OT) signatures in weather satellite imagery are often associated with hazardous weather, such as heavy rainfall, tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. An objective satellite-based OT detection product has been developed using 11-micrometer infrared window (IRW) channel brightness temperatures (BTs) for the upcoming R series of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) Advanced Baseline Imager. In this study, this method is applied to GOES-12 IRW data and the OT detections are compared with radar data, severe storm reports, and severe weather warnings over the eastern United States. The goals of this study are to 1) improve forecaster understanding of satellite OT signatures relative to commonly available radar products, 2) assess OT detection product accuracy, and 3) evaluate the utility of an OT detection product for diagnosing hazardous convective storms. The coevolution of radar-derived products and satellite OT signatures indicates that an OT often corresponds with the highest radar echo top and reflectivity maximum aloft. Validation of OT detections relative to composite reflectivity indicates an algorithm false-alarm ratio of 16%, with OTs within the coldest IRW BT range (less than 200 K) being the most accurate. A significant IRW BT minimum typically present with an OT is more often associated with heavy precipitation than a region with a spatially uniform BT. Severe weather was often associated with OT detections during the warm season (April September) and over the southern United States. The severe weather to OT relationship increased by 15% when GOES operated in rapid-scan mode, showing the importance of high temporal resolution for observing and detecting rapidly evolving cloud-top features. Comparison of the earliest OT detection associated with a severe weather report showed that 75% of the cases occur before severe weather and that 42% of collocated severe weather reports had either an OT detected before a severe weather warning or no warning issued at all. The relationships between satellite OT signatures, severe weather, and heavy rainfall shown in this paper suggest that 1) when an OT is detected, the particular storm is likely producing heavy rainfall and/or possibly severe weather; 2) an objective OT detection product can be used to increase situational awareness and forecaster confidence that a given storm is severe; and 3) this product may be particularly useful in regions with insufficient radar coverage.

The message, meteorology and myths of the historic West Coast winter flooding of 1861 - 62

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schick, L. J.

2012-12-01

The greatest known recorded flooding, ever to impact the West Coast of the United States, occurred during the winter of 1861-1862. In fact, the extraordinary flood flows on five major rivers, remain the record peaks to this day. The flooding was caused by a series of Pacific mid-latitude cyclones and several strong atmospheric rivers. The extreme rainy pattern initially strikes Oregon. The high water causes the flood of record on the Willamette River, with extensive devastation, wiping out several major towns along the river. Communications, food and supplies were cut off for much of the winter in Oregon.The intense wet weather, then redevelops, moves south and stalls - pummeling Northern California with major flooding. The runoff fills California's Central Valley with a huge inland lake. Sacramento is submerged, turned into what was described as a "frontier Venice". Flood damages eliminate a large part of the state's tax base.Finally the stormy pattern shifts into Southern California, producing major flooding. Most of lowland Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego Counties are flooded under several feet of water for weeks.The author researched limited weather data, historical accounts, maps and ship reports to reconstruct this series of storms and their effects along the West Coast. The extent and evolution of this series of flood events is unprecedented. Myths regarding the causes of this flooding are common, but its sheer magnitude is undisputable. This presentation will also demonstrate the nature and impacts of these consecutive major flood events, while revealing the lessons to be learned in light of advances in modern forecasting techniques.

A study of the connection between TV meteorologists and their viewers during severe weather broadcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, Daniel M.

After the devastating tornadoes in Joplin, MO and in the Deep South in 2011, it seemed appropriate to look at the impact that broadcast meteorologists (and their TV coverage) have on their viewers during severe weather events. Broadcast meteorologists play a vital role in the severe weather warning process and in persuading the public to take the appropriate actions during severe weather. This research was done by developing a survey that addressed the following questions: 1) Is the media doing everything they can persuade viewers to take shelter and protect themselves and their property?; 2) What do you do when a tornado warning is issued?; 3) Is there anything broadcast meteorologists can do or say that will make you take immediate action during severe weather? The survey was disseminated through television markets in Missouri. The goal of this research was to find new, improved and different ways of "connecting" with viewing during severe weather coverage. After looking at the results, we want to see if there are specific words, images or anything else a broadcaster can do that will trigger a response by viewers to take cover. It is my hope the results and analyses from this survey will provide broadcast meteorologists with new and improved techniques to connect with the public and to assist them in making an informed decision during severe weather events.

The use of weather surveillance radar and high-resolution three dimensional weather data to monitor a spruce budworm mass exodus flight

Treesearch

Yan Boulanger; Frédéric Fabry; Alamelu Kilambi; Deepa S. Pureswaran; Brian R. Sturtevant; Rémi Saint-Amant

2017-01-01

The likely spread of the current spruce budworm (SBW; Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak fromhigh to low density areas brings to the forefront a pressing need to understand its dispersal dynamics and to document mass exodus flights in relation to weather patterns. In this study, we used the weather surveillance radar of Val d'Irène in...

Variability of E. coli density and sources in an urban watershed.

PubMed

Wu, J; Rees, P; Dorner, S

2011-03-01

The objective of this study was to characterize the variability of Escherichia coli density and sources in an urban watershed, particularly to focus on the influences of weather and land use. E. coli as a microbial indicator was measured at fourteen sites in four wet weather events and four dry weather conditions in the upper Blackstone River watershed. The sources of E. coli were identified by ribotyping. The results showed that wet weather led to sharp increases of E. coli densities. Interestingly, an intense storm of short duration led to a higher E. coli density than a moderate storm of long duration (p<0.01). The ribotyping patterns revealed microbial sources were mainly attributed to humans and wildlife, but varied in different weather conditions and were associated with the patterns of land use. Human sources accounted for 24.43% in wet weather but only 9.09% in dry weather. In addition, human sources were more frequently observed in residential zones (>30% of the total sources), while wildlife sources were dominant in open land and forest zones (54%). The findings provide useful information for developing optimal management strategies aimed at reducing the level of pathogens in urban watersheds.

The weather diaries of a hunting and fishing estate in Connemara, Co. Galway, Ireland from 1898 to 1972

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hickey, Kieran

2017-04-01

A game diary from 1898-1917, fishing diary from 1899-1951 and daily work and weather diaries from 1933 -1972 have survived from the Fermoyle Lodge estate, Connemara, Co. Galway, Ireland. The diaries come from three generations of the Spellman family who retained their role as estate managers despite a number of changes in ownership over this time period. Using the information preserved in these volumes this paper will reconstruct the role of weather in the daily activities of this hunting and fishing estate. Severe weather generally only limited the numbers of days when hunting took place. In the case of fishing again severe weather could limit the number of days of fishing, however flood waters on the streams from the various small lakes on the estate improved fish runs during the spawning season which led to much improved fishing on the lakes. In addition different lakes were fished depending on the wind direction. The weather and especially severe weather played an important role in the general operation of the estate and the lives of the estate manager's family. This was especially true of severe weather, whether storms, flooding or cold in this relatively isolated location e.g. the cold spell of 1947 which is captured in the weather diaries.

On the role of snow cover ablation variability and synoptic-scale atmospheric forcings at the sub-basin scale within the Great Lakes watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suriano, Zachary J.

2018-02-01

Synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions play a critical role in determining the frequency and intensity of snow cover ablation in the mid-latitudes. Using a synoptic classification technique, distinct regional circulation patterns influencing the Great Lakes basin of North America are identified and examined in conjunction with daily snow ablation events from 1960 to 2009. This approach allows for the influence of each synoptic weather type on ablation to be examined independently and for the monthly and inter-annual frequencies of the weather types to be tracked over time. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of snow cover and the relatively large geographic extent of the Great Lakes basin, snow cover ablation events and the synoptic-scale patterns that cause them are examined for each of the Great Lakes watershed's five primary sub-basins to understand the regional complexities of snow cover ablation variability. Results indicate that while many synoptic weather patterns lead to ablation across the basins, they can be generally grouped into one of only a few primary patterns: southerly flow, high-pressure overhead, and rain-on-snow patterns. As expected, the patterns leading to ablation are not necessarily consistent between the five sub-basins due to the seasonality of snow cover and the spatial variability of temperature, moisture, wind, and incoming solar radiation associated with the particular synoptic weather types. Significant trends in the inter-annual frequency of ablation-inducing synoptic types do exist for some sub-basins, indicating a potential change in the hydrologic impact of these patterns over time.

Risk from drought and extreme heat in Russian wheat production and its relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Calanca, Pierluigi

2017-04-01

Russia has become one of the leading wheat exporters worldwide. Major breakdowns in Russian wheat production induced by extreme weather events are therefore of high significance not only for the domestic but also for the global market. Wheat production in south-western Russia, the main growing area, suffers in particular from the adverse effects of drought and heat waves. For this reason knowledge of the occurrence of this type of extreme events and of the processes that lead to adverse conditions is of paramount importance for risk management. The negative impacts of heat waves and drought are particularly severe when anomalous conditions persist in time. As an example, a blocking event in summer 2010 resulted in one of the warmest and worst drought conditions in Russia's recent history. The latter caused a decline in Russian wheat production by more than 30%, which in turn prompted the Russian government to issue an export ban that lasted until summer 2011. In view of this, the question of course arises of how much of the negative variations in Russian wheat production levels can be explained by blocking events and other features of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Specific questions are: how often are blocking events over Russia associated with extreme high temperatures and dry conditions? Which of the teleconnection patterns are correlated with drought and heat stress conditions in the area? Answering these questions can contribute to a develop strategies for agricultural risk management. In this contribution we present results of a study that aims at characterizing the occurrence of adverse weather conditions in south-western Russia in relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns such as East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, the Polar/Eurasia pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern. The analysis relies on weather data for 1980-2014 from 130 stations distributed across the wheat production area. The account for similarities in the occurrence of extreme heat, stations are clustered according to 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature. The results indicate that adverse conditions in the area are significantly correlated with the occurrence of blocking events and with the phase of some teleconnection patterns.

Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.

1997-12-31

The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially altermore » these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.« less

Adult proxy responses to a survey of children's dermal soil contact activities.

PubMed

Wong, E Y; Shirai, J H; Garlock, T J; Kissel, J C

2000-01-01

Contaminated site cleanup decisions may require estimation of dermal exposures to soil. Telephone surveys represent one means of obtaining relevant activity pattern data. The initial Soil Contact Survey (SCS-I), which primarily gathered information on the activities of adults, was conducted in 1996. Data describing adult behaviors have been previously reported. Results from a second Soil Contact Survey (SCS-II), performed in 1998-1999 and focused on children's activity patterns, are reported here. Telephone surveys were used to query a randomly selected sample of U.S. households. A randomly chosen child, under the age of 18 years, was targeted in each responding household having children. Play activities as well as bathing patterns were investigated to quantify total exposure time, defined as activity time plus delay until washing. Of 680 total survey respondents, 500 (73.5%) reported that their child played outdoors on bare dirt or mixed grass and dirt surfaces. Among these "players," the median reported play frequency was 7 days/week in warm weather and 3 days/week in cold weather. Median play duration was 3 h/day in warm weather and 1 h/day in cold weather. Hand washes were reported to occur a median of 4 times per day in both warm and cold weather months. Bath or shower median frequency was seven times per week in both warm and cold weather. Finally, based on clothing choice data gathered in SCS-I, a median of about 37% of total skin surface is estimated to be exposed during young children's warm weather outdoor play.

Prescribed burning weather in Minnesota.

Treesearch

Rodney W. Sando

1969-01-01

Describes the weather patterns in northern Minnesota as related to prescribed burning. The prevailing wind direction, average wind speed, most persistent wind direction, and average Buildup Index are considered in making recommendations.

Interaction effects between weather and space use on harvesting effort and patterns in red deer.

PubMed

Rivrud, Inger M; Meisingset, Erling L; Loe, Leif E; Mysterud, Atle

2014-12-01

Most cervid populations in Europe and North America are managed through selective harvesting, often with age- and sex-specific quotas, with a large influence on the population growth rate. Less well understood is how prevailing weather affects harvesting selectivity and off-take indirectly through changes in individual animal and hunter behavior. The behavior and movement patterns of hunters and their prey are expected to be influenced by weather conditions. Furthermore, habitat characteristics like habitat openness are also known to affect movement patterns and harvesting vulnerability, but how much such processes affect harvest composition has not been quantified. We use harvest data from red deer (Cervus elaphus) to investigate how weather and habitat characteristics affect behavioral decisions of red deer and their hunters throughout the hunting season. More specifically, we look at how sex and age class, temperature, precipitation, moon phase, and day of week affect the probability of being harvested on farmland (open habitat), hunter effort, and the overall harvest numbers. Moon phase and day of week were the strongest predictors of hunter effort and harvest numbers, with higher effort during full moon and weekends, and higher numbers during full moon. In general, the effect of fall weather conditions and habitat characteristics on harvest effort and numbers varied through the season. Yearlings showed the highest variation in the probability of being harvested on farmland through the season, but there was no effect of sex. Our study is among the first to highlight that weather may affect harvesting patterns and off-take indirectly through animal and hunter behavior, but the interaction effects of weather and space use on hunter behavior are complicated, and seem less important than hunter preference and quotas in determining hunter selection and harvest off-take. The consideration of hunter behavior is therefore key when forming management rules for sustainable harvesting.

Interaction effects between weather and space use on harvesting effort and patterns in red deer

PubMed Central

Rivrud, Inger M; Meisingset, Erling L; Loe, Leif E; Mysterud, Atle

2014-01-01

Most cervid populations in Europe and North America are managed through selective harvesting, often with age- and sex-specific quotas, with a large influence on the population growth rate. Less well understood is how prevailing weather affects harvesting selectivity and off-take indirectly through changes in individual animal and hunter behavior. The behavior and movement patterns of hunters and their prey are expected to be influenced by weather conditions. Furthermore, habitat characteristics like habitat openness are also known to affect movement patterns and harvesting vulnerability, but how much such processes affect harvest composition has not been quantified. We use harvest data from red deer (Cervus elaphus) to investigate how weather and habitat characteristics affect behavioral decisions of red deer and their hunters throughout the hunting season. More specifically, we look at how sex and age class, temperature, precipitation, moon phase, and day of week affect the probability of being harvested on farmland (open habitat), hunter effort, and the overall harvest numbers. Moon phase and day of week were the strongest predictors of hunter effort and harvest numbers, with higher effort during full moon and weekends, and higher numbers during full moon. In general, the effect of fall weather conditions and habitat characteristics on harvest effort and numbers varied through the season. Yearlings showed the highest variation in the probability of being harvested on farmland through the season, but there was no effect of sex. Our study is among the first to highlight that weather may affect harvesting patterns and off-take indirectly through animal and hunter behavior, but the interaction effects of weather and space use on hunter behavior are complicated, and seem less important than hunter preference and quotas in determining hunter selection and harvest off-take. The consideration of hunter behavior is therefore key when forming management rules for sustainable harvesting. PMID:25558369

Future monitoring of charged particle energy deposition into the upper atmosphere and comments on possible relationships between atmospheric phenomena and solar and/or geomagnetic activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, D. J.; Grubb, R. N.; Evans, D. S.; Sauer, H. H.

1975-01-01

Monitoring of earth's atmosphere was conducted for several years utilizing the ITOS series of low-altitude, polar-orbiting weather satellites. A space environment monitoring package was included in these satellites to perform measurements of a portion of earth's charged particle environment. The charged particle observations proposed for the low-altitude weather satellite TIROS N, are described which will provide the capability of routine monitoring of the instantaneous total energy deposition into the upper atmosphere by the precipitation of charged particles from higher altitudes. Such observations may be of use in future studies of the relationships between geomagnetic activity and atmospheric weather pattern developments. Estimates are given to assess the potential importance of this type of energy deposition. Discussion and examples are presented illustrating the importance of distinguishing between solar and geomagnetic activity as possible causative sources. Such differentiation is necessary because of the widely different spatial and time scales involved in the atmospheric energy input resulting from these various sources of activity.

Historic halo displays as weather indicator: Criteria and examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhäuser, Dagmar L.; Neuhäuser, Ralph

2016-04-01

There are numerous celestial signs reported in historic records, many of them refer to atmospheric ("sub-lunar") phenomena, such as ice halos and aurorae. In an interdisciplinary collaboration between astrophysics and cultural astronomy, we noticed that celestial observations including meteorological phenomena are often misinterpreted, mostly due to missing genuine criteria: especially ice crystal halos were recorded frequently in past centuries for religious reasons, but are mistaken nowadays often for other phenomena like aurorae. Ice halo displays yield clear information on humidity and temperature in certain atmospheric layers, and thereby indicate certain weather patterns. Ancient so-called rain makers used halo observations for weather forecast; e.g., a connection between certain halo displays and rain a few day later is statistically significant. Ice halos exist around sun and moon and are reported for both (they can stay for several days): many near, middle, and far eastern records from day- and night-time include such observations with high frequency. (Partly based on publications on halos by D.L. Neuhäuser & R. Neuhäuser, available at http://www.astro.uni-jena.de/index.php/terra-astronomy.html)

Seasonal temperature and precipitation regulate brook trout young-of-the-year abundance and population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kanno, Yoichiro; Pregler, Kasey C.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Hocking, Daniel; Wofford, John E.B.

2015-01-01

Our results indicate that YOY abundance is a key driver of brook trout population dynamics that is mediated by seasonal weather patterns. A reliable assessment of climate change impacts on brook trout needs to account for how alternations in seasonal weather patterns impact YOY abundance and how such relationships may differ across the range of brook trout distribution.

Evaluating the Large-Scale Environment of Extreme Events Using Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosilovich, M. G.; Schubert, S. D.; Koster, R. D.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Eichmann, A.

2014-12-01

Extreme conditions and events have always been a long standing concern in weather forecasting and national security. While some evidence indicates extreme weather will increase in global change scenarios, extremes are often related to the large scale atmospheric circulation, but also occurring infrequently. Reanalyses assimilate substantial amounts of weather data and a primary strength of reanalysis data is the representation of the large-scale atmospheric environment. In this effort, we link the occurrences of extreme events or climate indicators to the underlying regional and global weather patterns. Now, with greater than 3o years of data, reanalyses can include multiple cases of extreme events, and thereby identify commonality among the weather to better characterize the large-scale to global environment linked to the indicator or extreme event. Since these features are certainly regionally dependent, and also, the indicators of climate are continually being developed, we outline various methods to analyze the reanalysis data and the development of tools to support regional evaluation of the data. Here, we provide some examples of both individual case studies and composite studies of similar events. For example, we will compare the large scale environment for Northeastern US extreme precipitation with that of highest mean precipitation seasons. Likewise, southerly winds can shown to be a major contributor to very warm days in the Northeast winter. While most of our development has involved NASA's MERRA reanalysis, we are also looking forward to MERRA-2 which includes several new features that greatly improve the representation of weather and climate, especially for the regions and sectors involved in the National Climate Assessment.

Resolving biodegradation patterns of persistent saturated hydrocarbons in weathered oil samples from the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

PubMed

Gros, Jonas; Reddy, Christopher M; Aeppli, Christoph; Nelson, Robert K; Carmichael, Catherine A; Arey, J Samuel

2014-01-01

Biodegradation plays a major role in the natural attenuation of oil spills. However, limited information is available about biodegradation of different saturated hydrocarbon classes in surface environments, despite that oils are composed mostly of saturates, due to the limited ability of conventional gas chromatography (GC) to resolve this compound group. We studied eight weathered oil samples collected from four Gulf of Mexico beaches 12-19 months after the Deepwater Horizon disaster. Using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC × GC), we successfully separated, identified, and quantified several distinct saturates classes in these samples. We find that saturated hydrocarbons eluting after n-C22 dominate the GC-amenable fraction of these weathered samples. This compound group represented 8-10%, or 38-68 thousand metric tons, of the oil originally released from Macondo well. Saturates in the n-C22 to n-C29 elution range were found to be partly biodegraded, but to different relative extents, with ease of biodegradation decreasing in the following order: n-alkanes > methylalkanes and alkylcyclopentanes+alkylcyclohexanes > cyclic and acyclic isoprenoids. We developed a new quantitative index designed to characterize biodegradation of >n-C22 saturates. These results shed new light onto the environmental fate of these persistent, hydrophobic, and mostly overlooked compounds in the unresolved complex mixtures (UCM) of weathered oils.

Seasonal variability of atmospheric surface layer characteristics and weather pattern in Qatar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Dhrubajyoti; Cheng, Way Lee; Sadr, Reza

2016-11-01

Qatar's economy is based on oil and gas industry, which are mostly located in coastal regions. Therefore, better understanding of coastal weather, characteristics of surface layer and turbulence exchange processes is much needed. However, the turbulent atmospheric layer study in this region is severely limited. To support the broader aim and study long term precise wind information, a micro-meteorological field campaign has been carried out in a coastal location of north Qatar. The site is based on a 9 m tower, installed at Al Ghariya in the northern coast of Qatar, equipped with three sonic anemometers, temperature-humidity sensor, radiometer and a weather station. This study shows results based on the period August 2015 to July 2016. Various surface layer characteristics and modellings coefficients based on Monin Obukhov similarity theory is studied for the year and seasonal change is noted. Along with the seasonal variabilities of different weather parameters also observed. We hope this long term field observational study will be very much helpful for research community especially for modelers. In addition, two beach and shoreline monitoring cameras installed at the site could give first time information on waves and shoreline changes, and wind-wave interaction in Qatar. An Preliminary Analysis of Wind-Wave Interaction in Qatar in the Context of Changing Climate.

Anatomy of a system accident: the crash of Avianca Flight 052.

PubMed

Helmreich, R L

1994-01-01

On January 25, 1990, Avianca Flight 052 crashed after running out of fuel following a missed approach to New York's John F. Kennedy Airport. Weather was poor on the East Coast of the United States that day, and the flight had experienced several holding patterns enroute from Medellín, Colombia, to New York. The accident is analyzed in terms of Helmreich and Foushee's (1993) model of crew performance and Reason's (1990) model of latent pathogens in system operations.

Anatomy of a system accident: The crash of Avianca Flight 052

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helmreich, Robert L.

1994-01-01

On January 25, 1990, Avianca Flight 052 crashed after running out of fuel following a missed approach to New York's John F. Kennedy Airport. Weather was poor on the East Coast of the United States that day, and the flight had experienced several holding patterns enroute from Medellin, Colombia, to New York. The accident is analyzed in terms of Helmreich and Foushee's (1993) model of crew performance and Reason's (1990) model of latent pathogens in system operations.

A synoptic approach to weather conditions discloses a relationship with ambulatory blood pressure in hypertensives.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Orlandini, Simone; Maracchi, Giampiero; Gensini, Gian F; Modesti, Pietro A

2008-07-01

Higher blood pressure (BP) values in cold than in hot months has been documented in hypertensives. These changes may potentially contribute to the observed excess winter cardiovascular mortality. However, the association with weather has always been investigated by considering the relationship with a single variable rather than considering the combination of ground weather variables characterizing a specific weather pattern (air mass (AM)). We retrospectively investigate in Florence (Italy) the relationship between BP and specific AMs in hypertensive subjects (n = 540) referred to our Hypertension Unit for 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring during the period of the year characterized by the highest weather variability (winter). Five different winter daily AMs were classified according to the combination of ground weather data (air temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and direction). Multiple variable analysis selected the AM as a significant predictor of mean 24-h BP (P < 0.01 for diastolic BP (DBP) and P < 0.05 for systolic BP (SBP)), daytime DBP (P < 0.001) and nighttime BP (P < 0.01 for both SBP and DBP), with higher BP values observed in cyclonic (unstable, cloudy, and mild weather) than in anticyclonic (settled, cloudless, and cold weather) days. When the association with 2-day sequences of AMs was considered, an increase in ambulatory BP followed a sudden day-to-day change of weather pattern going from anticyclonic to cyclonic days. The weather considered as a combination of different weather variables may affect BP. The forecast of a sudden change of AM could provide important information helpful for hypertensives during winter.

Developing Custom Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni

2015-09-01

The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.

On the relationship between atmospheric rivers, weather types and floods in Galicia (NW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiras-Barca, Jorge; Lorenzo, Nieves; Taboada, Juan; Robles, Alba; Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo

2018-06-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - long and narrow structures of anomalously high water vapor flux located in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones - have been shown to be closely related to extreme precipitation and flooding. In this paper we analyze the connection between ARs and flooding in the northwestern Spanish region of Galicia under a variety of synoptic conditions represented by the so-called weather types, a classification of daily sea-level pressure patterns obtained by means of a simple scheme that adopts the subjective procedure of Lamb. Flood events are identified from official reports conducted by the Spanish emergency management agency (Protección Civil) from 1979 to 2010. Our results suggest that, although most flood events in Galicia do not coincide with the presence of an overhead AR, ARs are present in the majority of severe cases, particularly in coastal areas. Flood events associated with ARs are connected to cyclonic weather types with westerly and southwesterly flows, which occur mostly in winter months. The link between ARs and severe flooding is not very apparent in inland areas or during summer months, in which case heavy precipitation is usually not frontal in nature but rather convective. Nevertheless, our results show that, in general, the amount of precipitation in flood events in Galicia more than doubles when an AR is present.

Developing Custom Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interfaces in Southern Italy.

PubMed

Elia, Mario; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Lovreglio, Raffaella; Sanesi, Giovanni

2015-09-01

The dramatic increase of fire hazard in wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) has required more detailed fuel management programs to preserve ecosystem functions and human settlements. Designing effective fuel treatment strategies allows to achieve goals such as resilient landscapes, fire-adapted communities, and ecosystem response. Therefore, obtaining background information on forest fuel parameters and fuel accumulation patterns has become an important first step in planning fuel management interventions. Site-specific fuel inventory data enhance the accuracy of fuel management planning and help forest managers in fuel management decision-making. We have customized four fuel models for WUIs in southern Italy, starting from forest classes of land-cover use and adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. Furthermore, we provide a prediction of the potential fire behavior of our customized fuel models using FlamMap 5 under different weather conditions. The results suggest that fuel model IIIP (Mediterranean maquis) has the most severe fire potential for the 95th percentile weather conditions and the least severe potential fire behavior for the 85th percentile weather conditions. This study shows that it is possible to create customized fuel models directly from fuel inventory data. This achievement has broad implications for land managers, particularly forest managers of the Mediterranean landscape, an ecosystem that is susceptible not only to wildfires but also to the increasing human population and man-made infrastructures.

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jonas, Jayne L.; Buhl, Deborah A.; Symstad, Amy J.

2015-01-01

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess 1) the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, 2) how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and 3) which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six datasets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/14-1989.1

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management.

PubMed

Jonas, Jayne L; Buhl, Deborah A; Symstad, Amy J

2015-09-01

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six data sets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.

Metapopulation Structure and Dynamics of an Endangered Butterfly

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

the yearly variation of between-generation population change. We utilized weather data from the closest accessible NOAA weather station (43◦56′N/90◦49...patterns in the population dynamic, and tested for density-dependent growth and weather factors as potential explanatory factors of the yearly variation...followed a standard protocol including avoiding inclement weather con- ditions (Wilder 1999) and about 95% of the survey data were collected by a single

Recent improvement and projected worsening of weather in the United States.

PubMed

Egan, Patrick J; Mullin, Megan

2016-04-21

As climate change unfolds, weather systems in the United States have been shifting in patterns that vary across regions and seasons. Climate science research typically assesses these changes by examining individual weather indicators, such as temperature or precipitation, in isolation, and averaging their values across the spatial surface. As a result, little is known about population exposure to changes in weather and how people experience and evaluate these changes considered together. Here we show that in the United States from 1974 to 2013, the weather conditions experienced by the vast majority of the population improved. Using previous research on how weather affects local population growth to develop an index of people’s weather preferences, we find that 80% of Americans live in counties that are experiencing more pleasant weather than they did four decades ago. Virtually all Americans are now experiencing the much milder winters that they typically prefer, and these mild winters have not been offset by markedly more uncomfortable summers or other negative changes. Climate change models predict that this trend is temporary, however, because US summers will eventually warm more than winters. Under a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions proceed at an unabated rate (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we estimate that 88% of the US public will experience weather at the end of the century that is less preferable than weather in the recent past. Our results have implications for the public’s understanding of the climate change problem, which is shaped in part by experiences with local weather. Whereas weather patterns in recent decades have served as a poor source of motivation for Americans to demand a policy response to climate change, public concern may rise once people’s everyday experiences of climate change effects start to become less pleasant.

The Behavior of Total Lightning Activity in Severe Florida Thunderstorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Earle; Boldi, Bob; Matlin, Anne; Weber, Mark; Hodanish, Steve; Sharp, Dave; Goodman, Steve; Raghavan, Ravi; Buechler, Dennis

1998-01-01

The development of a new observational system called LISDAD (Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display) has enabled a study of severe weather in central Florida. The total flash rates for storms verified to be severe are found to exceed 60 flashes/min, with some values reaching 500 flashes/min. Similar to earlier results for thunderstorm microbursts, the peak flash rate precedes the severe weather at the ground by 5-20 minutes. A distinguishing feature of severe storms is the presence of lightning "jumps"-abrupt increases in flash rate in advance of the maximum rate for the storm. ne systematic total lightning precursor to severe weather of all kinds-wind, hail, tornadoes-is interpreted in terms of the updraft that sows the seeds aloft for severe weather at the surface and simultaneously stimulates the ice microphysics that drives the lightning activity.

14 CFR 135.293 - Initial and recurrent pilot testing requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., high altitude weather; (7) Procedures for— (i) Recognizing and avoiding severe weather situations; (ii) Escaping from severe weather situations, in case of inadvertent encounters, including low-altitude windshear (except that rotorcraft pilots are not required to be tested on escaping from low-altitude...

14 CFR 135.293 - Initial and recurrent pilot testing requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., high altitude weather; (7) Procedures for— (i) Recognizing and avoiding severe weather situations; (ii) Escaping from severe weather situations, in case of inadvertent encounters, including low-altitude windshear (except that rotorcraft pilots are not required to be tested on escaping from low-altitude...

Locations Where Space Weather Energy Impacts the Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sojka, Jan J.

2017-11-01

In this review we consider aspects of space weather that can have a severe impact on the terrestrial atmosphere. We begin by identifying the pre-conditioning role of the Sun on the temperature and density of the upper atmosphere. This effect we define as "space climatology". Space weather effects are then defined as severe departures from this state of the atmospheric energy and density. Three specific forms of space weather are reviewed and we show that each generates severe space weather impacts. The three forms of space weather being considered are the solar photon flux (flares), particle precipitation (aurora), and electromagnetic Joule heating (magnetosphere-ionospheric (M-I) coupling). We provide an overview of the physical processes associated with each of these space weather forms. In each case a very specific altitude range exists over which the processes can most effectively impact the atmosphere. Our argument is that a severe change in the local atmosphere's state leads to atmospheric heating and other dynamic changes at locations beyond the input heat source region. All three space weather forms have their greatest atmospheric impact between 100 and 130 km. This altitude region comprises the transition between the atmosphere's mesosphere and thermosphere and is the ionosphere's E-region. This region is commonly referred to as the Space Atmosphere Interaction Region (SAIR). The SAIR also acts to insulate the lower atmosphere from the space weather impact of energy deposition. A similar space weather zone would be present in atmospheres of other planets and exoplanets.

Analysis of weather condition influencing fire regime in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, Valentina; Masala, Francesco; Salis, Michele; Sirca, Costantino; Spano, Donatella

2014-05-01

Fires have a crucial role within Mediterranean ecosystems, with both negative and positive impacts on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In addition, several authors are in agreement suggesting that, during the past decades, changes on fire patterns have occurred, especially in terms of fire-prone areas expansion and fire season lengthening. Climate and weather are two of the main controlling agents, directly and indirectly, of fire regime influencing vegetation productivity, causing water stress, igniting fires through lightning, or modulating fire behavior through wind. On the other hand, these relationships could be not warranted in areas where most ignitions are caused by people (Moreno et al. 2009). Specific analyses of the driving forces of fire regime across countries and scales are thus still required in order to better anticipate fire seasons and also to advance our knowledge of future fire regimes. The objective of this work was to improve our knowledge of the relative effects of several weather variables on forest fires in Italy for the period 1985-2008. Meteorological data were obtained through the MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) database, interpolated at 25x25 km scale. Fire data were provided by the JRC (Join Research Center) and the CFVA (Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale, Sardinia). A hierarchical cluster analysis, based on fire and weather data, allowed the identification of six homogeneous areas in terms of fire occurrence and climate (pyro-climatic areas). Two statistical techniques (linear and non-parametric models) were applied in order to assess if inter-annual variability in weather pattern and fire events had a significant trend. Then, through correlation analysis and multi-linear regression modeling, we investigated the influence of weather variables on fire activity across a range of time- and spatial-scales. The analysis revealed a general decrease of both number of fires and burned area, although not everywhere with the same magnitude. Overall, regression models where highly significant (p<0.001), and the explained variance ranged from 36% to 80% for fire number and from 37% to 76% for burned area, depending on pyro-climatic area. Moreover, our results contributed in determining the relative importance of climate variables acting at different timescales as control on intrinsic (i.e. flammability and moisture) and extrinsic (i.e. fuel amount and structure) characteristics of vegetation, thus strongly influencing fire occurrence. The good performance of our models, especially in the most fire affected pyro-climatic areas of Italy, and the better understanding of the main driver of fire variability gained through this work could be of great help for fire management among the different pyro-climatic areas.

Analysis of winter weather conditions and their potential impact on wind farm operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novakovskaia, E.; Treinish, L. A.; Praino, A.

2009-12-01

Severe weather conditions have two primary impacts on wind farm operations. The first relates to understanding potential damage to the turbines themselves and what actions are required to mitigate the effects. The second is recognizing what conditions may lead to a full or partial shutdown of the wind farm with sufficient lead time to determine the likely inability to meet energy generation committments. Ideally, wind forecasting suitable for wind farm operations should be of sufficient fidelity to resolve features within the boundary layer that lead to either damaging conditions or useful power generation. Given the complexity of the site-specific factors that effect the boundary layer at the scale of typical land-based wind farm locations such as topography, vegetation, land use, soil conditions, etc., which may vary with turbine design and layout within the farm, enabling reliable forecasts of too little or too much wind is challenging. A potential solution should involve continuous updates of alert triggering criteria through analysis of local wind patterns and probabilistic risk assessment for each location. To evaluate this idea, we utilize our operational mesoscale prediction system, dubbed “Deep Thunder”, developed at the IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center. In particular, we analyze winter-time near-surface winds in upstate New York, where four similar winds farms are located. Each of these farms were built at roughly the same time and utilize similar turbines. Given the relative uncertainty associated with numerical weather prediction at this scale, and the difference in risk assessment due to the two primary impacts of severe weather, probabilistic forecasts are a prerequisite. Hence, we have employed ensembles of weather scenarios, which are based on the NCAR WRF-ARW modelling system. The set of ensemble members was composed with variations in the choices of physics and parameterization schemes, and source of background fields for initial conditions with horizontal grid resolutions in the one to two km range. In addition, the vertical grid structure was defined to ensure at least ten levels within the boundary layer and two from the bottom to the top of the turbine. This approach enables us to estimate the variability of winds at the farms and how it is distributed over the region. Further, we analyze the potential differences in structural risks at these farms during the 2009 winter season, and whether such differences in wind and weather patterns should be considered in choice of turbine design, installation and operations. We believe that this methodology can be extended to provide an estimate for mean annual energy production at a wind farm with the potential to improve the quality of siting and layout.

Effective and efficient analysis of spatio-temporal data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhongnan

Spatio-temporal data mining, i.e., mining knowledge from large amount of spatio-temporal data, is a highly demanding field because huge amounts of spatio-temporal data have been collected in various applications, ranging from remote sensing, to geographical information systems (GIS), computer cartography, environmental assessment and planning, etc. The collection data far exceeded human's ability to analyze which make it crucial to develop analysis tools. Recent studies on data mining have extended to the scope of data mining from relational and transactional datasets to spatial and temporal datasets. Among the various forms of spatio-temporal data, remote sensing images play an important role, due to the growing wide-spreading of outer space satellites. In this dissertation, we proposed two approaches to analyze the remote sensing data. The first one is about applying association rules mining onto images processing. Each image was divided into a number of image blocks. We built a spatial relationship for these blocks during the dividing process. This made a large number of images into a spatio-temporal dataset since each image was shot in time-series. The second one implemented co-occurrence patterns discovery from these images. The generated patterns represent subsets of spatial features that are located together in space and time. A weather analysis is composed of individual analysis of several meteorological variables. These variables include temperature, pressure, dew point, wind, clouds, visibility and so on. Local-scale models provide detailed analysis and forecasts of meteorological phenomena ranging from a few kilometers to about 100 kilometers in size. When some of above meteorological variables have some special change tendency, some kind of severe weather will happen in most cases. Using the discovery of association rules, we found that some special meteorological variables' changing has tight relation with some severe weather situation that will happen very soon. This dissertation is composed of three parts: an introduction, some basic knowledges and relative works, and my own three contributions to the development of approaches for spatio-temporal data mining: DYSTAL algorithm, STARSI algorithm, and COSTCOP+ algorithm.

Characterizing severe weather potential in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Paul W.; Mote, Thomas L.

2018-04-01

Weakly forced thunderstorms (WFTs), short-lived convection forming in synoptically quiescent regimes, are a contemporary forecasting challenge. The convective environments that support severe WFTs are often similar to those that yield only non-severe WFTs and, additionally, only a small proportion of individual WFTs will ultimately produce severe weather. The purpose of this study is to better characterize the relative severe weather potential in these settings as a function of the convective environment. Thirty-one near-storm convective parameters for > 200 000 WFTs in the Southeastern United States are calculated from a high-resolution numerical forecasting model, the Rapid Refresh (RAP). For each parameter, the relative odds of WFT days with at least one severe weather event is assessed along a moving threshold. Parameters (and the values of them) that reliably separate severe-weather-supporting from non-severe WFT days are highlighted.Only two convective parameters, vertical totals (VTs) and total totals (TTs), appreciably differentiate severe-wind-supporting and severe-hail-supporting days from non-severe WFT days. When VTs exceeded values between 24.6 and 25.1 °C or TTs between 46.5 and 47.3 °C, odds of severe-wind days were roughly 5 × greater. Meanwhile, odds of severe-hail days became roughly 10 × greater when VTs exceeded 24.4-26.0 °C or TTs exceeded 46.3-49.2 °C. The stronger performance of VT and TT is partly attributed to the more accurate representation of these parameters in the numerical model. Under-reporting of severe weather and model error are posited to exacerbate the forecasting challenge by obscuring the subtle convective environmental differences enhancing storm severity.

Ensemble-based diagnosis of the large-scale processes associated with multiple high-impact weather events over North America during late October 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, B. J.; Bosart, L. F.; Keyser, D.

2013-12-01

During late October 2007, the interaction between a deep polar trough and Tropical Cyclone (TC) Kajiki off the eastern Asian coast perturbed the North Pacific jet stream and resulted in the development of a high-amplitude Rossby wave train extending into North America, contributing to three concurrent high-impact weather events in North America: wildfires in southern California associated with strong Santa Ana winds, a cold surge into eastern Mexico, and widespread heavy rainfall (~150 mm) in the south-central United States. Observational analysis indicates that these high-impact weather events were all dynamically linked with the development of a major high-latitude ridge over the eastern North Pacific and western North America and a deep trough over central North America. In this study, global operational ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) obtained from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive are used to characterize the medium-range predictability of the large-scale flow pattern associated with the three events and to diagnose the large-scale atmospheric processes favorable, or unfavorable, for the occurrence of the three events. Examination of the ECMWF forecasts leading up to the time period of the three high-impact weather events (~23-25 October 2007) indicates that ensemble spread (i.e., uncertainty) in the 500-hPa geopotential height field develops in connection with downstream baroclinic development (DBD) across the North Pacific, associated with the interaction between TC Kajiki and the polar trough along the eastern Asian coast, and subsequently moves downstream into North America, yielding considerable uncertainty with respect to the structure, amplitude, and position of the ridge-trough pattern over North America. Ensemble sensitivity analysis conducted for key sensible weather parameters corresponding to the three high-impact weather events, including relative humidity, temperature, and precipitation, demonstrates quantitatively that all three high-impact weather events are closely linked with the development of the ridge-trough pattern over North America. Moreover, results of this analysis indicate that the development of the ridge-trough pattern is modulated by DBD and cyclogenesis upstream over the central and eastern North Pacific. Specifically, ensemble members exhibiting less intense cyclogenesis and a more poleward cyclone track over the central and eastern North Pacific feature the development of a poleward-displaced ridge over the eastern North Pacific and western North America and a cut-off low over the Intermountain West, an unfavorable scenario for the occurrence the three high-impact weather events. Conversely, ensemble members exhibiting more intense cyclogenesis and a less poleward cyclone track feature persistent ridging along the western coast of North America and trough development over central North America, establishing a favorable flow pattern for the three high-impact weather events. Results demonstrate that relatively small initial differences in the large-scale flow pattern over the North Pacific among ensemble members can result in large uncertainty in the forecast downstream flow response over North America.

Forest fire weather in western Oregon and western Washington in 1957.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1957-01-01

Severity of 1957 fire weather west of the Cascade Range summit in Oregon and Washington was near the average of the previous 10 years. The season (April 1 through October 31) was slightly more severe than 1956 in western Oregon and about the same as 1956 in western Washington. Spring fire weather was near average severity in both western Washington and western Oregon....

Identifying when weather influences life-history traits of grazing herbivores.

PubMed

Sims, Michelle; Elston, David A; Larkham, Ann; Nussey, Daniel H; Albon, Steve D

2007-07-01

1. There is increasing evidence that density-independent weather effects influence life-history traits and hence the dynamics of populations of animals. Here, we present a novel statistical approach to estimate when such influences are strongest. The method is demonstrated by analyses investigating the timing of the influence of weather on the birth weight of sheep and deer. 2. The statistical technique allowed for the pattern of temporal correlation in the weather data enabling the effects of weather in many fine-scale time intervals to be investigated simultaneously. Thus, while previous studies have typically considered weather averaged across a single broad time interval during pregnancy, our approach enabled examination simultaneously of the relationships with weekly and fortnightly averages throughout the whole of pregnancy. 3. We detected a positive effect of temperature on the birth weight of deer, which is strongest in late pregnancy (mid-March to mid-April), and a negative effect of rainfall on the birthweight of sheep, which is strongest during mid-pregnancy (late January to early February). The possible mechanisms underlying these weather-birth weight relationships are discussed. 4. This study enhances our insight into the pattern of the timing of influence of weather on early development. The method is of much more general application and could provide valuable insights in other areas of ecology in which sequences of intercorrelated explanatory variables have been collected in space or in time.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Observation of severe weather activities by Doppler sounder array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, R. E.; Hung, R. J.

1975-01-01

A three-dimensional, nine-element, high-frequency CW Doppler sounder array has been used to detect ionospheric disturbances during periods of severe weather, particularly during periods with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. One typical disturbance recorded during a period of severe thunderstorm activity and one during a period of tornado activity have been chosen for analysis in this note. The observations indicate that wave-like disturbances possibly generated by the severe weather have wave periods in the range 2-8 min which place them in the infrasonic wave category.

The Early Years: Navigating Natural Disasters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ashbrook, Peggy

2016-01-01

Keeping track of the weather is especially important in communities where severe weather endangers property and lives. Science education may mean talking with children about scary or tragic events. Although teachers should not avoid teaching about severe weather events, they can be sensitive to students' fears and stress by first asking families…

COSMIC Payload in NCAR-NASPO GPS Satellite System for Severe Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai-Chen, C.

Severe weather, such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, outburst of cold air, etc., results in great disaster all the world. It is the mission for the scientists to design a warning system, to predict the severe weather systems and to reduce the damage of the society. In Taiwan, National Satellite Project Office (NSPO) initiated ROCSAT-3 program at 1997. She scheduled the Phase I conceptual design to determine the mission for observation weather system. Cooperating with National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSPO involved an international cooperation research and operation program to build a 32 GPS satellites system. NCAR will offer 24 GPS satellites. The total expanse will be US 100 millions. NSPO also provide US 80 millions for launching and system engineering operation. And NCAR will be responsible for Payload Control Center and Fiducial Network. The cooperative program contract has been signed by Taiwan National Science Council, Taipei Economic Cultural Office of United States and American Institute in Taiwan. One of the payload is COSMIC, Constellation Observation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate. It is a GPS meteorology instrument system. The system will observe the weather information, e. g. electron density profiles, horizontal and vertical TEC and CFT scintillation and communication outage maps. The mission is to obtain the weather data such as vertical temperature profiles, water vapor distribution and pressure distribution over the world for global weather forecasting, especially during the severe weather period. The COSMIC Conference held on November, 1998. The export license was also issued by Department of Commerce of Unites States at November, 1998. Recently, NSPO begun to train their scientists to investigate the system. Scientists simulate the observation data to combine the existing routine satellite infrared cloud maps, radar echo and synoptic weather analysis for severe weather forecasting. It is hopeful to provide more accurate weather analysis for forecasting and decreasing the damage of the disasters over the area concerned.

No evidence of the effect of extreme weather events on annual occurrence of four groups of ectothermic species.

PubMed

Malinowska, Agnieszka H; van Strien, Arco J; Verboom, Jana; WallisdeVries, Michiel F; Opdam, Paul

2014-01-01

Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics) across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i) trends in distribution patterns, (ii) the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii) the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity), or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat). Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest.

No Evidence of the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Annual Occurrence of Four Groups of Ectothermic Species

PubMed Central

Malinowska, Agnieszka H.; van Strien, Arco J.; Verboom, Jana; WallisdeVries, Michiel F.; Opdam, Paul

2014-01-01

Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics) across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i) trends in distribution patterns, (ii) the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii) the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity), or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat). Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest. PMID:25330414

NOAA: Strong El Niño sets the stage for 2015-2016 winter weather

Science.gov Websites

El Niño, among the strongest on record, is expected to influence weather and climate patterns this NOAA HOME WEATHER OCEANS FISHERIES CHARTING SATELLITES CLIMATE RESEARCH COASTS CAREERS National Temperature. Temperature - U.S. Winter Outlook: 2015-2016 (Credit: NOAA) Forecasters at NOAA's Climate

The dust cloud of the century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.

1983-02-01

The structure and composition of the dust cloud from the 4 April 1982 eruption of the El Chichon volcano in Chiapas state, Mexico, is examined and the possible effects of the dust cloud on the world's weather patterns are discussed. Observations of the cloud using a variety of methods are evaluated, including data from the GOES and NOAA-7 weather satellites, vertically pointing lidar measurements, the SME satellite, and the Nimbus-7 satellite. Studies of the gaseous and particulate composition of the cloud reveal the presence of large amounts of sulfuric acid particles, which have a long mean residence time in the atmosphere and have a large effect on the amount of solar radiation received at the earth's surface by scattering several percent of the radiation back to space. Estimates of the effect of this cloud on surface air temperature changes are presented based on findings from climate models.

Climate, Waterborne Disease, and Public Health in Eastern Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tirrell, Andrew

2013-04-01

As global temperatures rise, waterborne diseases have expanded their ranges northward. Exposure to new diseases is especially threatening to isolated communities, whose remote locations and lack of health resources and infrastructure leave them particularly vulnerable. For this project, a time series analysis of existing data will be used to assess temporal and spatial associations between long-term, seasonal and short-term weather variability, and waterborne infectious diseases in several Siberian communities. Building on these associations, we will generate estimates of future changes in infectious disease patterns based upon existing forecasts of climate change and likely increases in extreme weather events in eastern Russia. Finally, we will contemplate the public health implications of these findings and offer appropriate policy recommendations. One of our policy aims will be to identify easily measured water quality indicators that may serve as useful proxies for environmental health in rural, especially indigenous, communities.

Driver injury severity related to inclement weather at highway-rail grade crossings in the United States.

PubMed

Hao, Wei; Daniel, Janice

2016-01-01

Previous studies on crash modeling at highway-rail grade crossings were aimed at exploring the factors that are likely to increase the crash frequencies at highway-rail grade crossings. In recent years, modeling driver's injury severity at highway-rail grade crossings has received interest. Because there were substantial differences among different weather conditions for driver's injury severity, this study attempts to explore the impact of weather influence on driver injury at highway-rail grade crossing. Utilizing the most recent 10 years (2002-2011) of highway-rail grade crossing accident data, this study applied a mixed logit model to explore the determinants of driver injury severity under different weather conditions at highway-rail grade crossing. Analysis results indicate that drivers' injury severity at highway-rail grade crossings is strongly different for different weather conditions. It was found that the factors significantly impacting driver injury severity at highway-rail grade crossings include motor vehicle speed, train speed, driver's age, gender, area type, lighting condition, highway pavement, traffic volume, and time of day. The findings of this study indicate that crashes are more prevalent if vehicle drivers are driving at high speed or the oncoming trains are high speed. Hence, a reduction in speed limit during inclement weather conditions could be particularly effective in moderating injury severity, allowing more reaction time for last-minute maneuvering and braking in moments before impacts. In addition, inclement weather-related crashes were more likely to occur in open areas and highway-rail grade crossings without pavement and lighting. Paved highway-rail grade crossings with installation of lights could be particularly effective in moderating injury severity.

The efficacy of fuel treatment in mitigating property loss during wildfires: Insights from analysis of the severity of the catastrophic fires in 2009 in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Price, Owen F; Bradstock, Ross A

2012-12-30

Treatment of fuel (e.g. prescribed fire, logging) in fire-prone ecosystems is done to reduce risks to people and their property but effects require quantification, particularly under severe weather conditions when the destructive potential of fires on human infrastructure is maximised. We analysed the relative effects of fuel age (i.e. indicative of the effectiveness of prescribed fire) and logging on remotely sensed (SPOT imagery) severity of fires which occurred in eucalypt forests in Victoria, Australia in 2009. These fires burned under the most severe weather conditions recorded in Australia and caused large losses of life and property. Statistical models of the probability of contrasting extremes of severity (crown fire versus fire confined to the understorey) were developed based on effects of fuel age, logging, weather, topography and forest type. Weather was the primary influence on severity, though it was reduced at low fuel ages in Moderate but not Catastrophic, Very High or Low fire-weather conditions. Probability of crown fires was higher in recently logged areas than in areas logged decades before, indicating likely ineffectiveness as a fuel treatment. The results suggest that recently burnt areas (up to 5-10 years) may reduce the intensity of the fire but not sufficiently to increase the chance of effective suppression under severe weather conditions. Since house loss was most likely under these conditions (67%), effects of prescribed burning across landscapes on house loss are likely to be small when weather conditions are severe. Fuel treatments need to be located close to houses in order to effectively mitigate risk of loss. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C. L.; Chang, H. I.; Luong, T. M.; Lahmers, T.; Jares, M.; Mazon, J.; Carrillo, C. M.; Adams, D. K.

2015-12-01

The North American monsoon (NAM) is the principal driver of summer severe weather in the Southwest U.S. Monsoon convection typically initiates during daytime over the mountains and may organize into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Most monsoon-related severe weather occurs in association with organized convection, including microbursts, dust storms, flash flooding and lightning. A convective resolving grid spacing (on the kilometer scale) model is required to explicitly represent the physical characteristics of organized convection, for example the presence of leading convective lines and trailing stratiform precipitation regions. Our objective is to analyze how monsoon severe weather is changing in relation to anthropogenic climate change. We first consider a dynamically downscaled reanalysis during a historical period 1948-2010. Individual severe weather event days, identified by favorable thermodynamic conditions, are then simulated for short-term, numerical weather prediction-type simulations of 30h at a convective-permitting scale. Changes in modeled severe weather events indicate increases in precipitation intensity in association with long-term increases in atmospheric instability and moisture, particularly with organized convection downwind of mountain ranges. However, because the frequency of synoptic transients is decreasing during the monsoon, organized convection is less frequent and convective precipitation tends to be more phased locked to terrain. These types of modeled changes also similarly appear in observed CPC precipitation, when the severe weather event days are selected using historical radiosonde data. Next, we apply the identical model simulation and analysis procedures to several dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models for the period 1950-2100, to assess how monsoon severe weather may change in the future with respect to occurrence and intensity and if these changes correspond with what is already occurring in the historical record. The CMIP5 models we are downscaling (HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-LR) will be included as part of North American COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX). Results from this project will be used for climate change impacts assessment for U.S. military installations in the region.

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach.

PubMed

Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E; Verdery, Ashton M; Rindfuss, Ronald R; Walsh, Stephen J; Malanson, George P; Mucha, Peter J; Frizzelle, Brian G; McDaniel, Philip M; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

2016-09-01

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, 'normal' scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Entwisle, Barbara; Williams, Nathalie E.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Malanson, George P.; Mucha, Peter J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Heumann, Benjamin W.; Prasartkul, Pramote; Sawangdee, Yothin; Jampaklay, Aree

2016-01-01

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, ‘normal’ scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response. PMID:27594725

Context sensitive formulations of antenna pattern correction and side lobe compensation for NOSS/LAMMR real time processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, R. T.; Beaudet, P. R.

1981-01-01

Large antenna multi-channel microwave radiometer (LAMMR) software specifications were written for LAMMR ground processing. There is a need to determine more computationally-efficient antenna temperature correction methods in compensating side lobe contributions especially near continents, islands and weather fronts. One of the major conclusions was that the antenna pattern corrections (APC) processes did not accomplish the implied goals of compensating for the antenna side lobe influences on brightness temperature. A-priori knowledge of land/water locations was shown to be needed and had to be incorporated in a context sensitive APC process if the artifacts caused by land presence is to be avoided. The high temperatures in land regions can severely bias the lower ocean response.

Teaching through Trade Books: Forecasting Hazardous Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Royce, Christine Anne

2016-01-01

For students to know how to prepare for severe weather, they must first understand what types of weather they might experience in their location. Much of students' interactions with and learning about severe weather events will happen through printed text resources and video excerpts. Through the use of such resources, young students can begin to…

Assessing Individual Weather Risk-Taking and Its Role in Modeling Likelihood of Hurricane Evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, A. E.

2017-12-01

This research focuses upon measuring an individual's level of perceived risk of different severe and extreme weather conditions using a new self-report measure, the Weather Risk-Taking Scale (WRTS). For 32 severe and extreme situations in which people could perform an unsafe behavior (e. g., remaining outside with lightning striking close by, driving over roadways covered with water, not evacuating ahead of an approaching hurricane, etc.), people rated: 1.their likelihood of performing the behavior, 2. The perceived risk of performing the behavior, 3. the expected benefits of performing the behavior, and 4. whether the behavior has actually been performed in the past. Initial development research with the measure using 246 undergraduate students examined its psychometric properties and found that it was internally consistent (Cronbach's a ranged from .87 to .93 for the four scales) and that the scales possessed good temporal (test-retest) reliability (r's ranged from .84 to .91). A second regression study involving 86 undergraduate students found that taking weather risks was associated with having taken similar risks in one's past and with the personality trait of sensation-seeking. Being more attentive to the weather and perceiving its risks when it became extreme was associated with lower likelihoods of taking weather risks (overall regression model, R2adj = 0.60). A third study involving 334 people examined the contributions of weather risk perceptions and risk-taking in modeling the self-reported likelihood of complying with a recommended evacuation ahead of a hurricane. Here, higher perceptions of hurricane risks and lower perceived benefits of risk-taking along with fear of severe weather and hurricane personal self-efficacy ratings were all statistically significant contributors to the likelihood of evacuating ahead of a hurricane. Psychological rootedness and attachment to one's home also tend to predict lack of evacuation. This research highlights the contributions that a psychological approach can offer in understanding preparations for severe weather. This approach also suggests that a great deal of individual variation exists in weather-protective behaviors, which may explain in part why some people take weather-related risks despite receiving warnings for severe weather.

Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ossó, Albert; Sutton, Rowan; Shaffrey, Len; Dong, Buwen

2018-01-01

Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation––the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern––is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March–April can predict the SEA pattern in July–August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses show that the sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. The SEA pattern has a particularly strong influence on rainfall in the British Isles, which we find can also be predicted months ahead with a significant skill of 0.56. Our results have immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France and also suggest that current dynamical model forecast systems have large potential for improvement.

Controls on carbon storage and weathering in volcanic ash soils across a climate gradient on Mauna Kea, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kramer, M. G.; Chadwick, O.

2017-12-01

Volcanic ash soils retain the largest and most persistent soil carbon pools of any ecosystem. However, the mechanisms governing soil carbon accumulation and weathering during initial phases of weathering are not well understood. We examined soil organic matter dynamics and weathering across a high altitude (3563 - 3013 m) 20 ky climate gradient on Mauna Kea in Hawaii. Four elevation sites were selected ( 250-500 mm rainfall) which range from arid-periglacial to sites which contain a mix of shrubs and grasses. At each site, between 2-3 pits were dug and major diagnostic horizons down to bedrock (in-tact lava) were sampled. Soils were analyzed for particle size, organic C and N, soil pH, exchangeable cations, base saturation, NaF pH, phosphorous sorption and bulk elements. Mass loss and pedogenic metal accumulation (hydroxlamine Fe, Al and Si extractions) were used to measure extent of weathering, leaching, changes in soil mineralogy and carbon accumulation with the short-range-ordered (SRO) minerals. Reactive-phase (SRO) minerals show a general trend of increasing abundance through the soil depth profile with increasing rainfall. However carbon accumulation patterns across the climate gradient are largely decoupled from these trends. The results suggest that after 20ky, pedogenic processes have altered the nature and composition of the volcanic ash such that it is capable of retaining soil C even where organic acid influences from plant material and leaching from rainfall is severely limited. Comparisons with lower elevation soils on Mauna Kea and other moist mesic (2500mm rainfall) sites on Hawaii suggest that these soils have reached only between 1-15 % of their capacity to retain carbon. Our results suggest that in low rainfall and a cold climate, after 20ky, weathering has advanced but is decoupled from soil carbon accumulation patterns and the associated influence of vegetation on soil development. Changes in soil carbon composition and amount across the entire (250-2500mm rainfall) Mauna Kea climate gradient indicate that the rate of carbon supply to the subsoil (driven by coupling of rainfall above ground plant production) is a governing factor of forms and amount of soil organic matter accumulation, while soil mineralogy remained relatively uniform.

Food Security and Extreme Events: Evidence from Smallholder Farmers in Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saborio-Rodriguez, M.; Alpizar, F.; Harvey, C.; Martinez, R.; Vignola, R.; Viguera, B.; Capitan, T.

2016-12-01

Extreme weather events, which are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency due to climate change, are one of the main threats for smallholder farmers in Central America. Using a rich dataset from carefully selected subsistence farm households, we explore the determinants and severity of food insecurity resulting from extreme hydrometeorological hazards. In addition, we analyze farmerś coping strategies. Our analysis sheds light over food insecurity as an expression of vulnerability in a region that is expected to be increasingly exposed to extreme events and in a population already stressed by poverty and lack of opportunities. Regarding food insecurity, multivariate analyses indicate that education, having at least one migrant in the household, labor allocation, number of plots, and producing coffee are determinants of the probability of experiencing lack of food after an extreme weather event. Once the household is lacking food, the duration of the episode is related to access to credit, number of plots, producing coffee, ownership of land and gender of the head of the household. This results are in line with previous literature on the determinants of food insecurity in particular, and vulnerability, in general. Our dataset also allows us to analyze coping strategies. Households experiencing lack of food after an extreme weather event report mainly changes in their habits, as decreasing the amount of food consumed (54%) and modifying their diet (35%). A low proportion of household (between 10% and 15%, depending on the nature of the event) use their assets, by redirecting their savings, migrating, and selling items from the house. Asking money or food from family and friends or from an organization is reported for 4% of the households. This general results are connected to the specific coping strategies related to damages in crops, which are explored in detail. Our results indicate that there are patterns among the household experiencing lack of food after an extreme weather event. These patterns create opportunities for directing help, and preparing farmers in advance. The coping strategies used are precarious. Therefore, there is a need for rethinking policies that effectively help farmers to cope with extreme weather events with sustainable responses that reduce their vulnerability.

Weather and climate applications for rangeland restoration planning

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rangeland ecosystems generally have an arid or semi-arid climatology, and are characterized by relatively high variability in seasonal and annual patterns of precipitation. Weather variability during seedling establishment is universally acknowledged as a principal determinant of rangeland seeding...

The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Lang, Timothy J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Bailey, Jeffrey; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2016-01-01

The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

A framework for periodic outlier pattern detection in time-series sequences.

PubMed

Rasheed, Faraz; Alhajj, Reda

2014-05-01

Periodic pattern detection in time-ordered sequences is an important data mining task, which discovers in the time series all patterns that exhibit temporal regularities. Periodic pattern mining has a large number of applications in real life; it helps understanding the regular trend of the data along time, and enables the forecast and prediction of future events. An interesting related and vital problem that has not received enough attention is to discover outlier periodic patterns in a time series. Outlier patterns are defined as those which are different from the rest of the patterns; outliers are not noise. While noise does not belong to the data and it is mostly eliminated by preprocessing, outliers are actual instances in the data but have exceptional characteristics compared with the majority of the other instances. Outliers are unusual patterns that rarely occur, and, thus, have lesser support (frequency of appearance) in the data. Outlier patterns may hint toward discrepancy in the data such as fraudulent transactions, network intrusion, change in customer behavior, recession in the economy, epidemic and disease biomarkers, severe weather conditions like tornados, etc. We argue that detecting the periodicity of outlier patterns might be more important in many sequences than the periodicity of regular, more frequent patterns. In this paper, we present a robust and time efficient suffix tree-based algorithm capable of detecting the periodicity of outlier patterns in a time series by giving more significance to less frequent yet periodic patterns. Several experiments have been conducted using both real and synthetic data; all aspects of the proposed approach are compared with the existing algorithm InfoMiner; the reported results demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed approach.

Spatio-temporal atmospheric circulation variability around the Antarctic Peninsula based on hemispheric circulation modes and weather types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wachter, Paul; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Höppner, Kathrin

2017-04-01

Large parts of the Polar Regions are affected by a warming trend associated with substantial changes in the cryosphere. In Antarctica this positive trend pattern is most dominant in the western part of the continent and on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). An important driving mechanism of temperature variability and trends in this region is the atmospheric circulation. Changes in atmospheric circulation modes and frequencies of circulation types have major impacts on temperature characteristics at a certain station or region. We present results of a statistical downscaling study focused on AP temperature variability showing both results of large-scale atmospheric circulation modes and regional weather type classifications derived from monthly and daily gridded reanalysis data sets. In order to investigate spatial trends and variabilities of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we analyze spatio-temporally resolved SAM-pattern maps from 1979 to 2015. First results show dominant multi-annual to decadal pattern variabilities which can be directly linked to temperature variabilities at the Antarctic Peninsula. A sub-continental to regional view on the influence of atmospheric circulation on AP temperature variability is given by the analysis of weather type classifications (WTC). With this analysis we identify significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of highly temperature-relevant circulation patterns. The investigated characteristics of weather type frequencies can also be related to the identified changes of the SAM.

Identification of sewer pipes to be cleaned for reduction of CSO pollutant load.

PubMed

Nagaiwa, Akihiro; Settsu, Katsushi; Nakajima, Fumiyuki; Furumai, Hiroaki

2007-01-01

To reduce the CSO (Combined Sewer Overflow) pollutant discharge, one of the effective options is cleaning of sewer pipes before rainfall events. To maximize the efficiency, identification of pipes to be cleaned is necessary. In this study, we discussed the location of pipe deposit in dry weather in a combined sewer system using a distributed model and investigated the effect of pipe cleaning to reduce the pollutant load from the CSO. First we simulated the dry weather flow in a combined sewer system. The pipe deposit distribution in the network was estimated after 3 days of dry weather period. Several specific pipes with structural defect and upper end pipes tend to have an accumulation of deposit. Wet weather simulations were conducted with and without pipe cleaning in rainfall events with different patterns. The SS loads in CSO with and without the pipe cleaning were compared. The difference in the estimated loads was interpreted as the contribution of wash-off in the cleaned pipe. The effect of pipe cleaning on reduction of the CSO pollutant load was quantitatively evaluated (e.g. the cleaning of one specific pipe could reduce 22% of total CSO load). The CSO simulations containing pipe cleaning options revealed that identification of pipes with accumulated deposit using the distributed model is very useful and informative to evaluate the applicability of pipe cleaning option for CSO pollutant reduction.

Navy Tactical Applications Guide. Volume 7. Southern Hemisphere Weather Analysis and Forecast Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-10-01

R2). The 500-mb analysis (Fig. IB-22a) during the winter season. Several important differ - has been reanalyzed to fit the satellite image data. ences...EARI AIM 21 JV! so% +20 7 +818 +765 16 SURFACE 86072012Z One Ica us Figure IB-27a. FNOC Surface Analysis . 1200 GMT 20 July 19...and the high and is also shown by the 0000 GMT surface is not a result of the blocking pattern. The axis of the high analysis . The cloud vortex

The effects of daily weather variables on psychosis admissions to psychiatric hospitals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McWilliams, Stephen; Kinsella, Anthony; O'Callaghan, Eadbhard

2013-07-01

Several studies have noted seasonal variations in admission rates of patients with psychotic illnesses. However, the changeable daily meteorological patterns within seasons have never been examined in any great depth in the context of admission rates. A handful of small studies have posed interesting questions regarding a potential link between psychiatric admission rates and meteorological variables such as environmental temperature (especially heat waves) and sunshine. In this study, we used simple non-parametric testing and more complex ARIMA and time-series regression analysis to examine whether daily meteorological patterns (wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, rainfall, sunshine, sunlight and temperature) exert an influence on admission rates for psychotic disorders across 12 regions in Ireland. Although there were some weak but interesting trends for temperature, barometric pressure and sunshine, the meteorological patterns ultimately did not exert a clinically significant influence over admissions for psychosis. Further analysis is needed.

Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report - Extended Summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2009-01-01

The effects of space weather on modern technological systems are well documented in both the technical literature and popular accounts. Most often cited perhaps is the collapse within 90 seconds of northeastern Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid during the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, which left millions of people without electricity for up to 9 hours. This event exemplifies the dramatic impact that severe space weather can have on a technology upon which modern society critically depends. Nearly two decades have passed since the March 1989 event. During that time, awareness of the risks of severe space weather has increased among the affected industries, mitigation strategies have been developed, new sources of data have become available, new models of the space environment have been created, and a national space weather infrastructure has evolved to provide data, alerts, and forecasts to an increasing number of users. Now, 20 years later and approaching a new interval of increased solar activity, how well equipped are we to manage the effects of space weather? Have recent technological developments made our critical technologies more or less vulnerable? How well do we understand the broader societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events? Are our institutions prepared to cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina,' a rare, but according to the historical record, not inconceivable eventuality? On May 22 and 23, 2008, a one-and-a-half-day workshop held in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Space Studies Board brought together representatives of industry, the federal government, and the social science community to explore these and related questions. The key themes, ideas, and insights that emerged during the presentations and discussions are summarized in 'Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report' (The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2008), which was prepared by the Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A Workshop. The present document is an expanded summary of that report.

A Multiscale Analysis of Upstream Precursors associated with High Impact Severe Weather Events across the Upper Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metz, N. D.; Cordeira, J. M.

2014-12-01

Between 30 June and 1 July 2011, a heavy-rain-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurred over Lake Michigan. A second MCS subsequently occurred over Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin on 1 July 2011 resulting in more than 200 severe weather reports. The antecedent large-scale flow evolution was strongly influenced by early-season tropical cyclones (TCs) Haima and Meari in the western North Pacific. The recurvature and subsequent interaction of these TCs with the extratropical large-scale flow was associated with Rossby wave train (RWT) amplification on 22-26 June 2011 over the western North Pacific and dispersion across North America on 28-30 June 2011. The RWT dispersion was associated with trough (ridge) development over western (central) North America at the time of MCS development over the Midwestern United States. This evolution of the large-scale flow and attendant meso-synoptic scale forcing for ascent were particularly conducive to heavy rainfall and severe weather as a surface-based mixed layer over the Intermountain Western United States was advected eastward, transitioning to an elevated mixed layer (EML) over the Midwestern United States. These two MCSs serve as motivation for a climatology of EML days and their relationship to severe weather over the Midwestern United States. The climatology illustrates that severe weather reports near Minneapolis, MN during the summer are twice as numerous on EML days as compared to normal. The increase in severe weather reports are primarily driven by more large hail and severe wind, which account for 95% of all severe weather reports on EML days. A time-lagged composite analysis indicates that RWT amplification over the central North Pacific and RWT dispersion across the eastern North Pacific and North American, as occurred prior to the 30 June-1 July period, is a common upstream precursor to EML days over the Midwestern United States. These results suggest that investigations of far upstream precursors to RWT amplification and dispersion over the North Pacific may be particularly useful in better understanding warm-season severe weather outbreaks over North America.

77 FR 39647 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Reef Fish Fishery of the Gulf of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-05

...., local time, July 11, 2012. However, due to severe weather conditions in the central and northeastern..., the central and northeastern Gulf experienced severe weather conditions during the first 26 days of... less than projected. In addition to tropical storm Debby in late June, poor weather conditions...

78 FR 17178 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Shrimp Fishery Off the Southern...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-20

... waters close as a result of severe winter weather. Amendment 9 would also revise the overfished and... has been severely depleted by cold weather. Based on information from standardized assessments, if a... changes to the current regulatory text within Sec. 622.35(d), ``South Atlantic shrimp cold weather closure...

76 FR 16698 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Shrimp Fishery Off the Southern...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-25

... severely depleted by unusually cold weather conditions. DATES: The closure is effective March 22, 2011... shrimp spawning stock that has been severely depleted by cold weather. Consistent with those procedures... time and would potentially further harm the spawning stock that has been impacted due to cold weather...

Developing New Strategies for Coping with Weather: Work in Alaskan and Canadian Coastal Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkinson, D. E.

2014-12-01

A changing climate is manifested at ground level through the day to day weather. For all Northern residents - community, industrial, operational and response - the need to think about the weather is ever present. Northern residents, and in particular, indigenous community residents, fully understand implications of the weather, however, a comment that has been heard more often is that old ways of knowing are not as reliable as they once were. Weather patterns seem less consistent and subject to more rapid fluctuations. Compromised traditional ways of knowing puts those who need to travel or hunt at greater risk. One response to adapt to this emerging reality is to make greater use of western sources of information, such as weather data and charts provided by NOAA's National Weather Service or Environment Canada. The federal weather agencies have very large and complex forecasting regions to cover, and so one problem is that it can be difficult to provide perfectly tailored forecasts, that cover all possible problems, right down to the very local scale in the communities. Only those affected have a complete feel for their own concerns. Thus, key to a strategy to improve the utility of available weather information is a linking of local-scale manifestations of problematic weather to the larger-scale weather patterns. This is done in two ways: by direct consultation with Northern residents, and by installation of equipment to measure parameters of interest to residents, which are not already being measured. This talk will overview projects in coastal Alaska and Canada targeting this objective. The challenge of designing and conducting interviews, and then of harvesting relevant information, will be visited using examples from the three major contexts: coastal community, industrial, and operational. Examples of how local comments can be married to weather products will be presented.

A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003 -2012) and lessons learned.

PubMed

Ehelepola, N D B; Ariyaratne, Kusalika; Buddhadasa, W M N P; Ratnayake, Sunil; Wickramasinghe, Malani

2015-09-24

Weather variables affect dengue transmission. This study aimed to identify a dengue weather correlation pattern in Kandy, Sri Lanka, compare the results with results of similar studies, and establish ways for better control and prevention of dengue. We collected data on reported dengue cases in Kandy and mid-year population data from 2003 to 2012, and calculated weekly incidences. We obtained daily weather data from two weather stations and converted it into weekly data. We studied correlation patterns between dengue incidence and weather variables using the wavelet time series analysis, and then calculated cross-correlation coefficients to find magnitudes of correlations. We found a positive correlation between dengue incidence and rainfall in millimeters, the number of rainy and wet days, the minimum temperature, and the night and daytime, as well as average, humidity, mostly with a five- to seven-week lag. Additionally, we found correlations between dengue incidence and maximum and average temperatures, hours of sunshine, and wind, with longer lag periods. Dengue incidences showed a negative correlation with wind run. Our results showed that rainfall, temperature, humidity, hours of sunshine, and wind are correlated with local dengue incidence. We have suggested ways to improve dengue management routines and to control it in these times of global warming. We also noticed that the results of dengue weather correlation studies can vary depending on the data analysis.

Looking at Earth from Space: Teacher's Guide with Activities for Earth and Space Science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steele, Colleen (Editor); Steele, Colleen; Ryan, William F.

1995-01-01

The Maryland Pilot Earth Science and Technology Education Network (MAPS-NET) project was sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to enrich teacher preparation and classroom learning in the area of Earth system science. This publication includes a teacher's guide that replicates material taught during a graduate-level course of the project and activities developed by the teachers. The publication was developed to provide teachers with a comprehensive approach to using satellite imagery to enhance science education. The teacher's guide is divided into topical chapters and enables teachers to expand their knowledge of the atmosphere, common weather patterns, and remote sensing. Topics include: weather systems and satellite imagery including mid-latitude weather systems; wave motion and the general circulation; cyclonic disturbances and baroclinic instability; clouds; additional common weather patterns; satellite images and the internet; environmental satellites; orbits; and ground station set-up. Activities are listed by suggested grade level and include the following topics: using weather symbols; forecasting the weather; cloud families and identification; classification of cloud types through infrared Automatic Picture Transmission (APT) imagery; comparison of visible and infrared imagery; cold fronts; to ski or not to ski (imagery as a decision making tool), infrared and visible satellite images; thunderstorms; looping satellite images; hurricanes; intertropical convergence zone; and using weather satellite images to enhance a study of the Chesapeake Bay. A list of resources is also included.

Forest insects and climate change: long-term trends in herbivore damage.

PubMed

Klapwijk, Maartje J; Csóka, György; Hirka, Anikó; Björkman, Christer

2013-10-01

Long-term data sets, covering several decades, could help to reveal the effects of observed climate change on herbivore damage to plants. However, sufficiently long time series in ecology are scarce. The research presented here analyzes a long-term data set collected by the Hungarian Forest Research Institute over the period 1961-2009. The number of hectares with visible defoliation was estimated and documented for several forest insect pest species. This resulted in a unique time series that provides us with the opportunity to compare insect damage trends with trends in weather patterns. Data were analyzed for six lepidopteran species: Thaumetopoea processionea, Tortrix viridana, Rhyacionia buoliana, Malacosoma neustria, Euproctis chrysorrhoea, and Lymantria dispar. All these species exhibit outbreak dynamics in Hungary. Five of these species prefer deciduous tree species as their host plants, whereas R. buoliana is a specialist on Pinus spp. The data were analyzed using general linear models and generalized least squares regression in relation to mean monthly temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased considerably, especially over the last 25 years (+1.6°C), whereas precipitation exhibited no trend over the period. No change in weather variability over time was observed. There was increased damage caused by two species on deciduous trees. The area of damage attributed to R. buoliana decreased over the study period. There was no evidence of increased variability in damage. We conclude that species exhibiting a trend toward outbreak-level damage over a greater geographical area may be positively affected by changes in weather conditions coinciding with important life stages. Strong associations between the geographical extent of severe damage and monthly temperature and precipitation are difficult to confirm, studying the life-history traits of species could help to increase understanding of responses to climate change.

The research frontier and beyond: granitic terrains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Twidale, C. R.

1993-07-01

Investigations of granite forms and landscapes over the past two centuries suggest that many features, major and minor, are shaped by fracture-controlled subsurface weathering, and particularly moisture-driven alteration: in other words etch forms are especially well represented in granitic terrains. Commonly referred to as two stage forms, many are in reality multistage in origin, for the structural contrasts exploited by weathering and erosion that are essential to the mechanism originated as magmatic, thermal or tectonic events in the distant geological past. Fracture patterns are critical to landform and landscape development in granitic terrains, but other structural factors also come into play. Location with respect to water table and moisture contact are also important. Once exposed and comparatively dry, granite forms tend to stability; they are developed and diversified, and many are gradually destroyed as new, epigene, forms evolve, but many granite forms persist over long ages. Reinforcement effects frequently play a part in landform development. Several granite forms are convergent, i.e. features of similar morphology evolve under the influence of different processes, frequently in contrasted environments. On the other hand many landforms considered to be typical of granitic terrains are also developed in bedrock that is petrologically different but physically similar to granite; and in particular is subdivided by fractures of similar pattern and density. To date, most of the general statements concerning the evolution of granitic terrains have been based in work in the tropics but other climatic settings, and notably those of cold land, are now yielding significant results. Future research will extend and develop these avenues, but biotic factors, and particularly the role of bacteria, in such areas as weathering, will take on a new importance. Structural variations inherited from the magnetic, thermal and tectonic events to which granite bodies have been subjected will be more and more appreciated as offering explanations for a wide range of granite forms, major and minor, ancient and recent. In particular, investigations of rock strain, including gravitational loading, at a variety of scales, and especially as it influences fracture patterns and susceptibility to weathering, will assume a prime importance in the explanation of granitic landforms and landscapes. Finally, there as genuine hopes that the close dating of surfaces and weathering events will allow structural and process studies to be placed in their chronilogical contexts. New techniques and observations will prove important to advances in the understanding of granitic forms, but, as in other areas of geomorphological endeavour, fresh perceptions, different linkages and new ideas are critical.

Wet-weather urban discharges: implications from adopting the revised European Directive concerning the quality of bathing water.

PubMed

David, L M; Matos, J S

2005-01-01

Wet weather urban discharges are responsible for bathing water contamination. The proposal for a revised EU Directive concerning the quality of bathing water imposes significantly more stringent requirements for the management of bathing water quality, with particularly important repercussions on beaches subjected to short-term pollution incidents. The paper reviews the aspects from EU legislation most directly related to the problem of wet-weather discharges, placing special emphasis on the recent revision process of the Directive on bathing water quality, and evaluates the benefits of some potential solutions based on continuous modelling of a combined sewer system. Increasing the sewer system storage capacity or the STP hydraulic capacity may substantially reduce the untreated discharge volumes, but spill frequency reductions under 2 to 3 spill days per bathing season will hardly be achieved. Results show the severe strains that local rainfall patterns would place on compliance with the Commission's proposal for a revised Directive and highlight the importance of the changes introduced in the amended proposal recently approved by the Council, making it less prescriptive if adequate measures are adopted to prevent bathers' exposure to short-term pollution incidents.

Real-time, rapidly updating severe weather products for virtual globes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Travis M.; Lakshmanan, Valliappa

2011-01-01

It is critical that weather forecasters are able to put severe weather information from a variety of observational and modeling platforms into a geographic context so that warning information can be effectively conveyed to the public, emergency managers, and disaster response teams. The availability of standards for the specification and transport of virtual globe data products has made it possible to generate spatially precise, geo-referenced images and to distribute these centrally created products via a web server to a wide audience. In this paper, we describe the data and methods for enabling severe weather threat analysis information inside a KML framework. The method of creating severe weather diagnosis products that are generated and translating them to KML and image files is described. We illustrate some of the practical applications of these data when they are integrated into a virtual globe display. The availability of standards for interoperable virtual globe clients has not completely alleviated the need for custom solutions. We conclude by pointing out several of the limitations of the general-purpose virtual globe clients currently available.

The Effect of Weather Events on Truck Traffic Patterns Using Fixed and Mobile Traffic Sensors

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-12-20

Connected vehicle applications related to road weather management and enabling systems are being designed to collect and take advantage of connected vehicle data and information transmissions to increase situational awareness, improve roadway levels ...

Atmospheric turbulence triggers pronounced diel pattern in karst carbonate geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roland, M.; Serrano-Ortiz, P.; Kowalski, A. S.; Goddéris, Y.; Sánchez-Cañete, E. P.; Ciais, P.; Domingo, F.; Cuezva, S.; Sanchez-Moral, S.; Longdoz, B.; Yakir, D.; Van Grieken, R.; Schott, J.; Cardell, C.; Janssens, I. A.

2013-07-01

CO2 exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is key to understanding the feedbacks between climate change and the land surface. In regions with carbonaceous parent material, CO2 exchange patterns occur that cannot be explained by biological processes, such as disproportionate outgassing during the daytime or nighttime CO2 uptake during periods when all vegetation is senescent. Neither of these phenomena can be attributed to carbonate weathering reactions, since their CO2 exchange rates are too small. Soil ventilation induced by high atmospheric turbulence is found to explain atypical CO2 exchange between carbonaceous systems and the atmosphere. However, by strongly altering subsurface CO2 concentrations, ventilation can be expected to influence carbonate weathering rates. By imposing ventilation-driven CO2 outgassing in a carbonate weathering model, we show here that carbonate geochemistry is accelerated and does play a surprisingly large role in the observed CO2 exchange pattern of a semi-arid ecosystem. We found that by rapidly depleting soil CO2 during the daytime, ventilation disturbs soil carbonate equilibria and therefore strongly magnifies daytime carbonate precipitation and associated CO2 production. At night, ventilation ceases and the depleted CO2 concentrations increase steadily. Dissolution of carbonate is now enhanced, which consumes CO2 and largely compensates for the enhanced daytime carbonate precipitation. This is why only a relatively small effect on global carbonate weathering rates is to be expected. On the short term, however, ventilation has a drastic effect on synoptic carbonate weathering rates, resulting in a pronounced diel pattern that exacerbates the non-biological behavior of soil-atmosphere CO2 exchanges in dry regions with carbonate soils.

The association of weather and mortality in Bangladesh from 1983–2009

PubMed Central

Alam, Nurul; Begum, Dilruba; Streatfield, Peter Kim

2012-01-01

Introduction The association of weather and mortality have not been widely studied in subtropical monsoon regions, particularly in Bangladesh. This study aims to assess the association of weather and mortality (measured with temperature and rainfall), adjusting for time trend and seasonal patterns in Abhoynagar, Bangladesh. Material and methods A sample vital registration system (SVRS) was set up in 1982 to facilitate operational research in family planning and maternal and child health. SVRS provided data on death counts and population from 1983–2009. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department provided data on daily temperature and rainfall for the same period. Time series Poisson regression with cubic spline functions was used, allowing for over-dispersion, including lagged weather parameters, and adjusting for time trends and seasonal patterns. Analysis was carried out using R statistical software. Results Both weekly mean temperature and rainfall showed strong seasonal patterns. After adjusting for seasonal pattern and time trend, weekly mean temperatures (lag 0) below the 25th percentile and between the 25th and 75th percentiles were associated with increased mortality risk, particularly in females and adults aged 20–59 years by 2.3–2.4% for every 1°C decrease. Temperature above the 75th percentile did not increase the risk. Every 1 mm increase in rainfall up to 14 mm of weekly average rainfall over lag 0–4 weeks was associated with decreased mortality risks. Rainfall above 14 mm was associated with increased mortality risk. Conclusion The relationships between temperature, rainfall and mortality reveal the importance of understanding the current factors contributing to adaptation and acclimatization, and how these can be enhanced to reduce negative impacts from weather. PMID:23195512

Forecasting of hourly load by pattern recognition in a small area power system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dehdashti-Shahrokh, A.

1982-01-01

An intuitive, logical, simple and efficient method of forecasting hourly load in a small area power system is presented. A pattern recognition approach is used in developing the forecasting model. Pattern recognition techniques are powerful tools in the field of artificial intelligence (cybernetics) and simulate the way the human brain operates to make decisions. Pattern recognition is generally used in analysis of processes where the total physical nature behind the process variation is unkown but specific kinds of measurements explain their behavior. In this research basic multivariate analyses, in conjunction with pattern recognition techniques, are used to develop a linearmore » deterministic model to forecast hourly load. This method assumes that load patterns in the same geographical area are direct results of climatological changes (weather sensitive load), and have occurred in the past as a result of similar climatic conditions. The algorithm described in here searches for the best possible pattern from a seasonal library of load and weather data in forecasting hourly load. To accommodate the unpredictability of weather and the resulting load, the basic twenty-four load pattern was divided into eight three-hour intervals. This division was made to make the model adaptive to sudden climatic changes. The proposed method offers flexible lead times of one to twenty-four hours. The results of actual data testing had indicated that this proposed method is computationally efficient, highly adaptive, with acceptable data storage size and accuracy that is comparable to many other existing methods.« less

PREDICTION OF PEROMYSCUS MANICULATUS (DEER MOUSE) POPULATION DYNAMICS IN MONTANA, USA, USING SATELLITE-DRIVEN VEGETATION PRODUCTIVITY AND WEATHER DATA

PubMed Central

Loehman, Rachel A.; Elias, Joran; Douglass, Richard J.; Kuenzi, Amy J.; Mills, James N.; Wagoner, Kent

2013-01-01

Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000–06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated. PMID:22493110

Energy, Weatherization and Indoor Air Quality

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change presents many challenges, including the production of severe weather events. These events and efforts to minimize their effects through weatherization can adversely affect indoor environments.

Integrating interannual climate variability forecasts into weather-indexed crop insurance. The case of Malawi, Kenya and Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicarelli, M.; Giannini, A.; Osgood, D.

2009-12-01

In this study we explore the potential for re-insurance schemes built on regional climatic forecasts. We focus on micro-insurance contracts indexed on precipitation in 9 villages in Kenya, Tanzania (Eastern Africa) and Malawi (Southern Africa), and analyze the precipitation patterns and payouts resulting from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inability to manage future climate risk represents a “poverty trap” for several African regions. Weather shocks can potentially destabilize not only household, but also entire countries. Governments in drought-prone countries, donors and relief agencies are becoming aware of the importance to develop an ex-ante risk management framework for weather risk. Joint efforts to develop innovative mechanisms to spread and pool risk such as microinsurance and microcredit are currently being designed in several developing countries. While ENSO is an important component in modulating the rainfall regime in tropical Africa, the micro-insurance experiments currently under development to address drought risk among smallholder farmers in this region do not take into account ENSO monitoring or forecasting yet. ENSO forecasts could be integrated in the contracts and reinsurance schemes could be designed at the continental scale taking advantage of the different impact of ENSO on different regions. ENSO is associated to a bipolar precipitation pattern in Southern and Eastern Africa. La Niña years (i.e. Cold ENSO Episodes) are characterized by dry climate in Eastern Africa and wet climate in Southern Africa. During El Niño (or Warm Episode) the precipitation dipole is inverted, and Eastern Africa experiences increased probability for above normal rainfall (Halpert and Ropelewski, 1992, Journal of Climate). Our study represents the first exercise in trying to include ENSO forecasts in micro weather index insurance contract design. We analyzed the contracts payouts with respect to climate variability. In particular (i) we simulated possible payouts using historical precipitation data and analyzed the differences between years with different ENSO states from 1961 to 2005; (ii) we applied Monte Carlo methods to simulate precipitation distributions in each location and calculated the mean and variance of payouts associated to different ENSO states. The results obtained from historical precipitation data indicate that more abundant rainfall reduces payouts and the risk of loan default during La Niña in southern Kenya and Malawi, during El Niño in Tanzania. The results of the Monte Carlo simulations confirm our findings. Our results suggest that re-insurance schemes could be successfully designed to exploit the anti-correlation patterns related to interannual climate variability for different regions in Africa. Moreover, the exploratory framework presented can potentially be refined applied to other regions (e.g. Central and Latin America).

Precipitation variability of the Grand Canyon region, 1893 through 2009, and its implications for studying effects of gullying of Holocene terraces and associated archeological sites in Grand Canyon, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hereford, Richard; Bennett, Glenn E.; Fairley, Helen C.

2014-01-01

A daily precipitation dataset covering a large part of the American Southwest was compiled for online electronic distribution (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1006/). The dataset contains 10.8 million observations spanning January 1893 through January 2009 from 846 weather stations in six states and 13 climate divisions. In addition to processing the data for distribution, water-year totals and other statistical parameters were calculated for each station with more than 2 years of observations. Division-wide total precipitation, expressed as the average deviation from the individual station means of a climate division, shows that the region—including the Grand Canyon, Arizona, area—has been affected by alternating multidecadal episodes of drought and wet conditions. In addition to compiling and analyzing the long-term regional precipitation data, a second dataset consisting of high-temporal-resolution precipitation measurements collected between November 2003 and January 2009 from 10 localities along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon was compiled. An exploratory study of these high-temporal-resolution precipitation measurements suggests that on a daily basis precipitation patterns are generally similar to those at a long-term weather station in the canyon, which in turn resembles the patterns at other long-term stations on the canyon rims; however, precipitation amounts recorded by the individual inner canyon weather stations can vary substantially from station to station. Daily and seasonal rainfall patterns apparent in these data are not random. For example, the inner canyon record, although short and fragmented, reveals three episodes of widespread, heavy precipitation in late summer 2004, early winter 2005, and summer 2007. The 2004 event and several others had sufficient rainfall to initiate potentially pervasive erosion of the late Holocene terraces and related archeological features located along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon.

Analysis of weather patterns associated with air quality degradation and potential health impacts

EPA Science Inventory

Emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources into the atmosphere are determined in large measure by prevailing weather conditions through complex physical, dynamical and chemical processes. Air pollution episodes are characterized by degradation in air quality as reflected by...

Forecasting challenges during the severe weather outbreak in Central Europe on 25 June 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Púčik, Tomáš; Francová, Martina; Rýva, David; Kolář, Miroslav; Ronge, Lukáš

2011-06-01

On 25 June 2008, severe thunderstorms caused widespread damage and two fatalities in the Czech Republic. Significant features of the storms included numerous downbursts on a squall line that exhibited a bow echo reflectivity pattern, with sustained wind gusts over 32 m/s at several reporting stations. Moreover, a tornado and several downbursts of F2 intensity occurred within the convective system, collocated with the development of mesovortices within the larger scale bow echo. The extent of the event was sufficient to call it a derecho, as the windstorm had affected Eastern Germany, Southern Poland, Slovakia, Austria and Northern Hungary as well. Ahead of the squall line, several well-organized isolated cells occurred, exhibiting supercellular characteristics, both from a radar and visual perspective. These storms produced large hail and also isolated severe wind gusts. This paper deals mostly with the forecasting challenges that were experienced by the meteorologist on duty during the evolution of this convective scenario. The main challenge of the day was to identify the region that would be most affected by severe convection, especially as the numerical weather prediction failed to anticipate the extent and the progress of the derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Convective storms developed in an environment conducive to severe thunderstorms, with strong wind shear confined mostly to the lower half of the troposphere. These developments also were strongly influenced by mesoscale factors, especially a mesolow centered over Austria and its trough stretching to Eastern Bohemia. The paper demonstrates how careful mesoscale analysis could prove useful in dealing with such convective situations. Remote-sensing methods are also shown to be useful in such situations, especially when they can offer sufficient lead time to issue a warning, which is not always the case.

49 CFR 602.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... again in the geographic area in which the public transportation system is located; or projected changes in development patterns, demographics, or extreme weather or other climate patterns. Serious damage...

49 CFR 602.5 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... again in the geographic area in which the public transportation system is located; or projected changes in development patterns, demographics, or extreme weather or other climate patterns. Serious damage...

Severe weather study. [for evaluating dissemination of storm forecasts meteorological services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mills, C. J.

1973-01-01

Current methods of severe weather information dissemination and the impact of this information on the general public are studied. The study is based on the responses of the general public and the local broadcasters to a severe weather incident which occurred on August 14, 1972 in the Dane County-Madison Metropolitan area. The results of the study were somewhat startling. From the sample, for instance, it was found that 45% of the Dane County population was not aware of the severe thunderstorm warning. In this case this may or may not have been critical, but had the storm been extremely severe or had a tornado and flooding been associated with the storm, a large segment of the population would have been in great danger. What this study has shown, is that the real problem with the dissemination of severe weather information is not the lack of it, but the inability to transfer it in useful form to an overwhelming majority of the general public.

Biofortification (Se): Does it increase the content of phenolic compounds in virgin olive oil (VOO)?

PubMed Central

D’Amato, Roberto; Proietti, Primo; Onofri, Andrea; Regni, Luca; Esposto, Sonia; Servili, Maurizio; Businelli, Daniela; Selvaggini, Roberto

2017-01-01

Extra-Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO) is a fundamental component of the Mediterranean diet and it may contain several anti-oxidant substances, such as phenols. Previous research has shown that this food may be enriched in phenols by spraying a sodium-selenate solution (100 mg L-1 Se) onto the crop canopy before flowering. The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of this Se-fertilization before flowering (cv. Leccino) on the phenolic profile of EVOOs, and test to what extent such effects depend on the weather pattern, as observed in two contrasting experimental seasons (2013 and 2014). Results showed that Se-fertilisation enriched EVOOs both in selenium (up to 120 μg kg-1) and in phenols (up to 401 mg kg-1). This latter enrichment was related to an increase in PAL (L-Phenylalanine Ammonia-Lyase) activities and it was largely independent on the climatic pattern. Considering the phenolic profile, oleacein, ligustroside, aglycone and oleocanthal were the most affected compounds and were increased by 57, 50 and 32%, respectively. All these compounds, especially oleacein, have been shown to exert a relevant anti-oxidant activity, contributing both to the shelf-life of EVOOs and to positive effects on human health. It is suggested that Se-fertilisation of olive trees before flowering may be an interesting practice, particularly with poor cultivars and cold and rainy weather patterns, which would normally lead to the production of EVOOs with unfavourable phenolic profile. PMID:28448631

Atmospheric Diabatic Heating in Different Weather States and the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.; Zhang, Yuanchong; Tselioudis, George

2016-01-01

Analysis of multiple global satellite products identifies distinctive weather states of the atmosphere from the mesoscale pattern of cloud properties and quantifies the associated diabatic heating/cooling by radiative flux divergence, precipitation, and surface sensible heat flux. The results show that the forcing for the atmospheric general circulation is a very dynamic process, varying strongly at weather space-time scales, comprising relatively infrequent, strong heating events by ''stormy'' weather and more nearly continuous, weak cooling by ''fair'' weather. Such behavior undercuts the value of analyses of time-averaged energy exchanges in observations or numerical models. It is proposed that an analysis of the joint time-related variations of the global weather states and the general circulation on weather space-time scales might be used to establish useful ''feedback like'' relationships between cloud processes and the large-scale circulation.

Effects of weather on the abundance and distribution on populations of 103 breeding bird species across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allstadt, A. J.; Gorzo, J.; Bateman, B. L.; Heglund, P. J.; Pidgeon, A. M.; Thogmartin, W.; Vavrus, S. J.; Radeloff, V.

2016-12-01

Often, fewer birds are often observed in an area experiencing extreme weather, as local populations tend to leave an area (via out-migration or concentration in refugia) or experience a change in population size (via mortality or reduced fecundity). Further, weather patterns are often coherent over large areas so unsuitable weather may threaten large portions of an entire species range simultaneously. However, beyond a few iconic irruptive species, rarely have studies applied both the necessary scale and sensitivity required to assess avian population responses over entire species range. Here, we examined the effects of pre-breeding season weather on the distribution and abundances of 103 North American bird species from the late 1966-2010 using observed abundance records from the Breeding Bird Survey. We compared abundances with measures of drought and temperature over each species' range, and with three atmospheric teleconnections that describe large-scale circulation patterns influencing conditions on the ground. More than 90% of the species responded to at least one of our five weather variables. Grassland bird species tended to be most responsive to weather conditions and forest birds the least, though we found relations among all habitat types. For most species, the response was movement rather than large effects on the overall population size. Maps of these responses indicate that concentration and out-migration are both common strategies for coping with challenging weather conditions across a species range. The dynamic distribution of many bird species makes clear the need to account for temporal variability in conservation planning, as areas that are less important for a species' breeding success in most years may be very important in years with abnormal weather conditions.

Context-aware pattern discovery for moving object trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, Mohammad; Asghar Alesheikh, Ali; Kaffash Charandabi, Neda

2018-05-01

Movement of point objects are highly sensitive to the underlying situations and conditions during the movement, which are known as contexts. Analyzing movement patterns, while accounting the contextual information, helps to better understand how point objects behave in various contexts and how contexts affect their trajectories. One potential solution for discovering moving objects patterns is analyzing the similarities of their trajectories. This article, therefore, contextualizes the similarity measure of trajectories by not only their spatial footprints but also a notion of internal and external contexts. The dynamic time warping (DTW) method is employed to assess the multi-dimensional similarities of trajectories. Then, the results of similarity searches are utilized in discovering the relative movement patterns of the moving point objects. Several experiments are conducted on real datasets that were obtained from commercial airplanes and the weather information during the flights. The results yielded the robustness of DTW method in quantifying the commonalities of trajectories and discovering movement patterns with 80 % accuracy. Moreover, the results revealed the importance of exploiting contextual information because it can enhance and restrict movements.

Multi-Dimensional Pattern Discovery of Trajectories Using Contextual Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, M.; Alesheikh, A. A.

2017-10-01

Movement of point objects are highly sensitive to the underlying situations and conditions during the movement, which are known as contexts. Analyzing movement patterns, while accounting the contextual information, helps to better understand how point objects behave in various contexts and how contexts affect their trajectories. One potential solution for discovering moving objects patterns is analyzing the similarities of their trajectories. This article, therefore, contextualizes the similarity measure of trajectories by not only their spatial footprints but also a notion of internal and external contexts. The dynamic time warping (DTW) method is employed to assess the multi-dimensional similarities of trajectories. Then, the results of similarity searches are utilized in discovering the relative movement patterns of the moving point objects. Several experiments are conducted on real datasets that were obtained from commercial airplanes and the weather information during the flights. The results yielded the robustness of DTW method in quantifying the commonalities of trajectories and discovering movement patterns with 80 % accuracy. Moreover, the results revealed the importance of exploiting contextual information because it can enhance and restrict movements.

Severe weather as a spectacle: the Meteo-Show

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orbe, Iñaki; Gaztelumendi, Santiago

2017-06-01

In this work we focus on perhaps one of the worst journalist practice when dealing with severe weather, the Meteo-Show or the extended practice, especially in TV, for using weather and meteorology for spectacle. Journalism today has found weather information in a real goldmine in terms of audience due to the growing public interest in this matter. However, as it happens with other content, sensationalism and exaggeration have also reached weather information, primarily when episodes of adverse nature (snow, heavy rain, floods, etc.) are addressed. In this paper we look to identify the worst practices in weather communication through analysis of examples from real journalist work. We present some keys to understand this trend, highlighting the ingredients that are present in the worst Meteo-show.

[Climate change and hygienic assessment of weather conditions in Omsk and the Omsk Region].

PubMed

Gudinova, Zh V; Akimova, I S; Klochikhina, A V

2010-01-01

The paper deals with trends in climate change in the Omsk Region: the increases in average annual air temperatures and rainfall, which are attended by the higher number of abnormal weather events, as shown by the data of the Omsk Regional Board, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. There is information on weather severity in 2008: there was mild weather in spring and severe weather in winter, in January in particular. A survey of physicians has revealed that medical workers are concerned about climate problems and global warming and ascertained weather events mostly affecting the population's health. People worry most frequently about a drastic temperature drop or rise (as high as 71%), atmospheric pressure change (53%), and "when it is too hot in summer (47%).

Assessing Weather-Yield Relationships in Rice at Local Scale Using Data Mining Approaches

PubMed Central

Delerce, Sylvain; Dorado, Hugo; Grillon, Alexandre; Rebolledo, Maria Camila; Prager, Steven D.; Patiño, Victor Hugo; Garcés Varón, Gabriel; Jiménez, Daniel

2016-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability have become important issues for farmers, and climate change has been shown to increase them. Simultaneously farmers and agricultural organizations are increasingly collecting observational data about in situ crop performance. Agriculture thus needs new tools to cope with changing environmental conditions and to take advantage of these data. Data mining techniques make it possible to extract embedded knowledge associated with farmer experiences from these large observational datasets in order to identify best practices for adapting to climate variability. We introduce new approaches through a case study on irrigated and rainfed rice in Colombia. Preexisting observational datasets of commercial harvest records were combined with in situ daily weather series. Using Conditional Inference Forest and clustering techniques, we assessed the relationships between climatic factors and crop yield variability at the local scale for specific cultivars and growth stages. The analysis showed clear relationships in the various location-cultivar combinations, with climatic factors explaining 6 to 46% of spatiotemporal variability in yield, and with crop responses to weather being non-linear and cultivar-specific. Climatic factors affected cultivars differently during each stage of development. For instance, one cultivar was affected by high nighttime temperatures in the reproductive stage but responded positively to accumulated solar radiation during the ripening stage. Another was affected by high nighttime temperatures during both the vegetative and reproductive stages. Clustering of the weather patterns corresponding to individual cropping events revealed different groups of weather patterns for irrigated and rainfed systems with contrasting yield levels. Best-suited cultivars were identified for some weather patterns, making weather-site-specific recommendations possible. This study illustrates the potential of data mining for adding value to existing observational data in agriculture by allowing embedded knowledge to be quickly leveraged. It generates site-specific information on cultivar response to climatic factors and supports on-farm management decisions for adaptation to climate variability. PMID:27560980

Assessing Weather-Yield Relationships in Rice at Local Scale Using Data Mining Approaches.

PubMed

Delerce, Sylvain; Dorado, Hugo; Grillon, Alexandre; Rebolledo, Maria Camila; Prager, Steven D; Patiño, Victor Hugo; Garcés Varón, Gabriel; Jiménez, Daniel

2016-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability have become important issues for farmers, and climate change has been shown to increase them. Simultaneously farmers and agricultural organizations are increasingly collecting observational data about in situ crop performance. Agriculture thus needs new tools to cope with changing environmental conditions and to take advantage of these data. Data mining techniques make it possible to extract embedded knowledge associated with farmer experiences from these large observational datasets in order to identify best practices for adapting to climate variability. We introduce new approaches through a case study on irrigated and rainfed rice in Colombia. Preexisting observational datasets of commercial harvest records were combined with in situ daily weather series. Using Conditional Inference Forest and clustering techniques, we assessed the relationships between climatic factors and crop yield variability at the local scale for specific cultivars and growth stages. The analysis showed clear relationships in the various location-cultivar combinations, with climatic factors explaining 6 to 46% of spatiotemporal variability in yield, and with crop responses to weather being non-linear and cultivar-specific. Climatic factors affected cultivars differently during each stage of development. For instance, one cultivar was affected by high nighttime temperatures in the reproductive stage but responded positively to accumulated solar radiation during the ripening stage. Another was affected by high nighttime temperatures during both the vegetative and reproductive stages. Clustering of the weather patterns corresponding to individual cropping events revealed different groups of weather patterns for irrigated and rainfed systems with contrasting yield levels. Best-suited cultivars were identified for some weather patterns, making weather-site-specific recommendations possible. This study illustrates the potential of data mining for adding value to existing observational data in agriculture by allowing embedded knowledge to be quickly leveraged. It generates site-specific information on cultivar response to climatic factors and supports on-farm management decisions for adaptation to climate variability.

Weathered stony meteorites from Victoria Land, Antarctica, as possible guides to rock weathering on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gooding, J. L.

1984-01-01

Parallel studies of Martian geomorphic features and their analogs on Earth continue to be fruitful in deciphering the geologic history of Mars. In the context of rock weathering, the Earth-analog approach is admirably served by the study of meteorites recovered from ice sheets in Antarctica. The weathering environment of Victoria Land possesses several Mars-like attributes. Four of the five Antarctic meteorites being studied contain rust and EETA79005 further possesses a conspicuous, dark, weathering rind on one side. Secondary minerals (rust and salts) occur both on the surfaces and interiors of some of the samples and textural evidence indicates that such secondary mineralization contributed to physical weathering (by salt riving) of the rocks. Several different rust morphologies occur and emphasis is being placed on identifying the phase compositions of the various rust occurrances. A thorough understanding of terrestrial weathering features of the meteorites is a prerequisite for identifying possible Martian weathering features (if such features exist) that might be postulated to occur in some meteorites.

Helicopter-based emergency medical services for a sparsely populated region: A study of 42,500 dispatches.

PubMed

Østerås, Ø; Brattebø, G; Heltne, J-K

2016-05-01

The Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (HEMS) in Norway is operated day and night, despite challenging geography and weather. In Western Norway, three ambulance helicopters, with a rapid response car as an alternative, cover close to 1 million inhabitants in an area of 45,000 km(2) . Our objective was to assess patterns of emergency medical problems and treatments in HEMS in a geographically large, but sparsely populated region. Data from all HEMS dispatches during 2004-2013 were assessed retrospectively. Information was analyzed with respect to patient treatment and characteristics, in addition to variations in services use during the day, week, and seasons. A total of 42,456 dispatches were analyzed. One third of the patients encountered were severely ill or injured, and two thirds of these received advanced treatment. Median activation time and on-scene time in primary helicopter missions were 5 and 11 min, respectively. Most patients (95%) were reached within 45 min by helicopter or rapid response car. Patterns of use did not change. More than one third of all dispatches were declined or aborted, mostly due to no longer medical indication, bad weather conditions, or competing missions. One third of the patients encountered were severely ill or injured, and more than two thirds of these received advanced treatment. HEMS use did not change over the 10-year period, however HEMS use peaked during daytime, weekends, and the summer. More than one third of all dispatches were declined or aborted. © 2015 The Authors. Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica Foundation.

75 FR 20918 - Drawbridge Operation Regulations; Duluth Ship Canal, Duluth, MN

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-22

... salvage operations, vessels engaged in pilot duties, vessels seeking shelter from severe weather, and all... operations, vessels engaged in pilot duties, vessels seeking shelter from severe weather, and all commercial...

Weather severity index on a mule deer winter range. [Odocoileus hemionus hemionus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leckenby, D.A.; Adams, A.W.

1986-05-01

Temperature, wind, and snow conditions predictably affect the nutrition, behavior, distribution, productivity, and mortality of free-ranging cattle and big game in winter. Indexing of data obtained with commonly available weather instruments to reflect episodes of positive and negative energy balances of free-ranging ruminants could aid scheduling of feeding programs and planning of cover-forage manipulations. Such a weather severity index was developed and tested over 11 winters. Plausible levels of stress and episodes of relative severity were depicted during winters when mule deer exhibited low, moderate, and high mortality. The index curves mirrored over-winter declines of fat reserves probably sustained bymore » mule deer. Lesser weather severity was predicted and measured in a western juniper woodland than in an adjacent rabbitbrush steppe community in southcentral Oregon. 32 references, 3 figures, 2 tables.« less

A HIERARCHIAL STOCHASTIC MODEL OF LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND MULTIPLE STATION DAILY PRECIPITATION

EPA Science Inventory

A stochastic model of weather states and concurrent daily precipitation at multiple precipitation stations is described. our algorithms are invested for classification of daily weather states; k means, fuzzy clustering, principal components, and principal components coupled with ...

Silica Retention and Enrichment in Open-System Chemical Weathering on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yen, A. S.; Ming, D. W.; Gellert, R.; Clark, B. C.; Mittlefehldt, D. W.; Morris, R. V.; Thompson, L. M.; Berger, J.

2015-01-01

Chemical signatures of weathering are evident in the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) datasets from Gusev Crater, Meridiani Planum, and Gale Crater. Comparisons across the landing sites show consistent patterns indicating silica retention and/or enrichment in open-system aqueous alteration.

Are existing irrigation salinity leaching requirement guidelines overly conservative or obsolete?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water scarcity and increased frequency of drought, resulting from erratic weather attributable to climatic change or alterations in historical weather patterns, have caused greater scrutiny of irrigated agriculture’s demand on water resources. The traditional guidelines for the calculation of the c...

Recent weather extremes and impact agricultural production and vector-borne disease patterns

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010-2012 period. We utilized 2000-2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASA’s satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to ...

Thin film module development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jester, T.

1985-01-01

The design of ARCO Solar, Inc.'s Genesis G100 photovoltaic module was driven by several criteria, including environmental stability (both electrical and mechanical), consumer aesthetics, low materials costs, and manufacturing ease. The module circuitry is designed as a 12 volt battery charger, using monolithic patterning techniques on a glass superstrate. This patterning and interconnect method proves amenable to high volume, low cost production throughput, and the use of glass serves the dual role of handling ease and availability. The mechanical design of the module centers on environmental stability. Packaging of the glass superstrate circuit must provide good resistance to thermal and humidity exposure along with hi-pot insulation and hailstone impact resistance. The options considered are given. Ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) is chosen as the pottant material for its excellent weatherability.

A conceptual weather-type classification procedure for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, area

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.

1990-01-01

A simple method of weather-type classification, based on a conceptual model of pressure systems that pass through the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, area, has been developed. The only inputs required for the procedure are daily mean wind direction and cloud cover, which are used to index the relative position of pressure systems and fronts to Philadelphia.Daily mean wind-direction and cloud-cover data recorded at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from January 1954 through August 1988 were used to categorize daily weather conditions. The conceptual weather types reflect changes in daily air and dew-point temperatures, and changes in monthly mean temperature and monthly and annual precipitation. The weather-type classification produced by using the conceptual model was similar to a classification produced by using a multivariate statistical classification procedure. Even though the conceptual weather types are derived from a small amount of data, they appear to account for the variability of daily weather patterns sufficiently to describe distinct weather conditions for use in environmental analyses of weather-sensitive processes.

Investigating Anomalies in the Output Generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decicco, Nicholas; Trout, Joseph; Manson, J. Russell; Rios, Manny; King, David

2015-04-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is an advanced mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model comprised of two numerical cores, the Numerical Mesoscale Modeling (NMM) core, and the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) core. An investigation was done to determine the source of erroneous output generated by the NMM core. In particular were the appearance of zero values at regularly spaced grid cells in output fields and the NMM core's evident (mis)use of static geographic information at a resolution lower than the nesting level for which the core is performing computation. A brief discussion of the high-level modular architecture of the model is presented as well as methods utilized to identify the cause of these problems. Presented here are the initial results from a research grant, ``A Pilot Project to Investigate Wake Vortex Patterns and Weather Patterns at the Atlantic City Airport by the Richard Stockton College of NJ and the FAA''.

Spatial patterns and broad-scale weather cues of beech mast seeding in Europe.

PubMed

Vacchiano, Giorgio; Hacket-Pain, Andrew; Turco, Marco; Motta, Renzo; Maringer, Janet; Conedera, Marco; Drobyshev, Igor; Ascoli, Davide

2017-07-01

Mast seeding is a crucial population process in many tree species, but its spatio-temporal patterns and drivers at the continental scale remain unknown . Using a large dataset (8000 masting observations across Europe for years 1950-2014) we analysed the spatial pattern of masting across the entire geographical range of European beech, how it is influenced by precipitation, temperature and drought, and the temporal and spatial stability of masting-weather correlations. Beech masting exhibited a general distance-dependent synchronicity and a pattern structured in three broad geographical groups consistent with continental climate regimes. Spearman's correlations and logistic regression revealed a general pattern of beech masting correlating negatively with temperature in the summer 2 yr before masting, and positively with summer temperature 1 yr before masting (i.e. 2T model). The temperature difference between the two previous summers (DeltaT model) was also a good predictor. Moving correlation analysis applied to the longest eight chronologies (74-114 yr) revealed stable correlations between temperature and masting, confirming consistency in weather cues across space and time. These results confirm widespread dependency of masting on temperature and lend robustness to the attempts to reconstruct and predict mast years using temperature data. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Automated Flight Routing Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ng, Hok K.; Morando, Alex; Grabbe, Shon

2010-01-01

Airspace capacity reduction due to convective weather impedes air traffic flows and causes traffic congestion. This study presents an algorithm that reroutes flights in the presence of winds, enroute convective weather, and congested airspace based on stochastic dynamic programming. A stochastic disturbance model incorporates into the reroute design process the capacity uncertainty. A trajectory-based airspace demand model is employed for calculating current and future airspace demand. The optimal routes minimize the total expected traveling time, weather incursion, and induced congestion costs. They are compared to weather-avoidance routes calculated using deterministic dynamic programming. The stochastic reroutes have smaller deviation probability than the deterministic counterpart when both reroutes have similar total flight distance. The stochastic rerouting algorithm takes into account all convective weather fields with all severity levels while the deterministic algorithm only accounts for convective weather systems exceeding a specified level of severity. When the stochastic reroutes are compared to the actual flight routes, they have similar total flight time, and both have about 1% of travel time crossing congested enroute sectors on average. The actual flight routes induce slightly less traffic congestion than the stochastic reroutes but intercept more severe convective weather.

Severe weather phobia: an exploratory study.

PubMed

Westefeld, J S

1996-09-01

Eighty-one persons with an intense fear of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes were interviewed to learn more about the phenomenon of "severe weather phobia," a term introduced for the first time in this investigation. Possible causes and methods of treatment are discussed, as well as implications for future research.

Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

2017-04-01

The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

Forest fire weather in western Oregon and western Washington in 1956.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1956-01-01

The 1956 fire season will be remembered for the record number of lightning storms in nearly all parts of the area. In other respects, fire-weather severity was slightly below the average of the previous ten years. In western Oregon, fire weather over the entire season (April through October) was slightly less severe than in 1955, while in western Washington it was...

Biological and geophysical feedbacks with fire in the Earth system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archibald, S.; Lehmann, C. E. R.; Belcher, C. M.; Bond, W. J.; Bradstock, R. A.; Daniau, A.-L.; Dexter, K. G.; Forrestel, E. J.; Greve, M.; He, T.; Higgins, S. I.; Hoffmann, W. A.; Lamont, B. B.; McGlinn, D. J.; Moncrieff, G. R.; Osborne, C. P.; Pausas, J. G.; Price, O.; Ripley, B. S.; Rogers, B. M.; Schwilk, D. W.; Simon, M. F.; Turetsky, M. R.; Van der Werf, G. R.; Zanne, A. E.

2018-03-01

Roughly 3% of the Earth’s land surface burns annually, representing a critical exchange of energy and matter between the land and atmosphere via combustion. Fires range from slow smouldering peat fires, to low-intensity surface fires, to intense crown fires, depending on vegetation structure, fuel moisture, prevailing climate, and weather conditions. While the links between biogeochemistry, climate and fire are widely studied within Earth system science, these relationships are also mediated by fuels—namely plants and their litter—that are the product of evolutionary and ecological processes. Fire is a powerful selective force and, over their evolutionary history, plants have evolved traits that both tolerate and promote fire numerous times and across diverse clades. Here we outline a conceptual framework of how plant traits determine the flammability of ecosystems and interact with climate and weather to influence fire regimes. We explore how these evolutionary and ecological processes scale to impact biogeochemical and Earth system processes. Finally, we outline several research challenges that, when resolved, will improve our understanding of the role of plant evolution in mediating the fire feedbacks driving Earth system processes. Understanding current patterns of fire and vegetation, as well as patterns of fire over geological time, requires research that incorporates evolutionary biology, ecology, biogeography, and the biogeosciences.

Is countershading camouflage robust to lighting change due to weather?

PubMed

Penacchio, Olivier; Lovell, P George; Harris, Julie M

2018-02-01

Countershading is a pattern of coloration thought to have evolved in order to implement camouflage. By adopting a pattern of coloration that makes the surface facing towards the sun darker and the surface facing away from the sun lighter, the overall amount of light reflected off an animal can be made more uniformly bright. Countershading could hence contribute to visual camouflage by increasing background matching or reducing cues to shape. However, the usefulness of countershading is constrained by a particular pattern delivering 'optimal' camouflage only for very specific lighting conditions. In this study, we test the robustness of countershading camouflage to lighting change due to weather, using human participants as a 'generic' predator. In a simulated three-dimensional environment, we constructed an array of simple leaf-shaped items and a single ellipsoidal target 'prey'. We set these items in two light environments: strongly directional 'sunny' and more diffuse 'cloudy'. The target object was given the optimal pattern of countershading for one of these two environment types or displayed a uniform pattern. By measuring detection time and accuracy, we explored whether and how target detection depended on the match between the pattern of coloration on the target object and scene lighting. Detection times were longest when the countershading was appropriate to the illumination; incorrectly camouflaged targets were detected with a similar pattern of speed and accuracy to uniformly coloured targets. We conclude that structural changes in light environment, such as caused by differences in weather, do change the effectiveness of countershading camouflage.

Unusually cold and dry winters increase mortality in Australia.

PubMed

Huang, Cunrui; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Barnett, Adrian G

2015-01-01

Seasonal patterns in mortality have been recognised for decades, with a marked excess of deaths in winter, yet our understanding of the causes of this phenomenon is not yet complete. Research has shown that low and high temperatures are associated with increased mortality independently of season; however, the impact of unseasonal weather on mortality has been less studied. In this study, we aimed to determine if unseasonal patterns in weather were associated with unseasonal patterns in mortality. We obtained daily temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for five major Australian cities with a range of climates. We split the seasonal patterns in temperature, humidity and mortality into their stationary and non-stationary parts. A stationary seasonal pattern is consistent from year-to-year, and a non-stationary pattern varies from year-to-year. We used Poisson regression to investigate associations between unseasonal weather and an unusual number of deaths. We found that deaths rates in Australia were 20-30% higher in winter than summer. The seasonal pattern of mortality was non-stationary, with much larger peaks in some winters. Winters that were colder or drier than a typical winter had significantly increased death risks in most cities. Conversely summers that were warmer or more humid than average showed no increase in death risks. Better understanding the occurrence and cause of seasonal variations in mortality will help with disease prevention and save lives. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Groups Call for Better Protection From Climate Change and Severe Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellows, Jack

2008-11-01

With a newly elected U.S. president taking office in January, eight leading professional organizations in the field of weather and climate have called on the next administration and Congress to better protect the United States from severe weather and climate change. The groups' ``transition document,'' which was provided to John McCain and Barack Obama, includes five recommendations to reverse declining budgets and provide tools and information that local and regional decision makers need in trying to prepare for weather- and climate-related impacts. The organizations also have been collecting from the community names that the next president should consider for key weather- and climate-related leadership positions in his administration.

Efficient Ways to Learn Weather Radar Polarimetry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cao, Qing; Yeary, M. B.; Zhang, Guifu

2012-01-01

The U.S. weather radar network is currently being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Weather radar polarimetry is an interdisciplinary area of engineering and meteorology. This paper presents efficient ways to learn weather radar polarimetry through several basic and practical topics. These topics include: 1) hydrometeor scattering model…

Lateral weathering gradients in glaciated catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, K. J.; Bailey, S. W.; Ross, D. S.; Strahm, B. D.; Schreiber, M. E.

2016-12-01

Mineral dissolution and the distribution of weathering products are fundamental processes that drive development and habitability of the Earth's critical zone; yet, the spatial configuration of these processes in some systems is not well understood. Feedbacks between hydrologic flows and weathering fluxes are necessary to understanding how the critical zone develops. In upland glaciated catchments of the northeastern USA, primary mineral dissolution and the distribution of weathering products are spatially distinct and predictable over short distances. Hillslopes, where shallow soils force lateral hydrologic fluxes through accumulated organic matter, produce downslope gradients in mineral depletion, weathering product accumulation, soil development, and solute chemistry. We propose that linked gradients in hydrologic flow paths, soil depth, and vegetation lead to predictable differences in the location and extent of mineral dissolution in regolith (soil, subsoil, and rock fragments) and bedrock, and that headwater catchments within the upland glaciated northeast show a common architecture across hillslopes as a result. Examples of these patterns and processes will be illustrated using observations from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire where laterally distinct soils with strong morphological and biogeochemical gradients have been documented. Patterns in mineral depletion and product accumulation are essential in predicting how ecosystems will respond to stresses, disturbance, and management.

Classification of weather patterns to study the influence of meteorological characteristics on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Chia-Hua; Cheng, Fang-Yi

2016-11-01

Yunlin County is located in the central part of western Taiwan with major emissions from the Mailiao industrial park, the Taichung Power Plants and heavy traffic. In order to understand the influence of meteorological conditions on PM2.5 concentrations in Yunlin County, we applied a two-stage cluster analysis method using the daily averaged surface winds from four air quality monitoring stations in Yunlin County to classify the weather pattern. The study period includes 1095 days from Jan 2013 to December 2015. The classification results show that the low PM2.5 concentration occurs when the synoptic weather in Taiwan is affected by the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow. The high PM2.5 concentration occurs when Taiwan is under the influence of weak synoptic weather conditions and continental high-pressure peripheral circulation. A high PM2.5 event was studied and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model was performed. The result indicated that due to being blocked by the Central Mountain Range, Yunlin County, which is situated on the leeside of the mountains, exhibits low wind speed and strong subsidence behavior that favors PM2.5 accumulation.

Piloting and Evaluating a Workshop to Teach Georgia Teachers about Weather Science and Safety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Alan E.; Knox, John A.; Schneider, Pat

2015-01-01

A survey of 691 Georgia teachers suggested that their students generally were not prepared for severe weather. Teachers also were somewhat dissatisfied with the quality of the teaching resources on weather and weather safety. Only 46 (7%) of the teachers were aware of the American Red Cross Masters of Disaster (MoD) weather science and safety…

Efficient transfer of weather information to the pilot in flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcfarland, R. H.

1982-01-01

Efficient methods for providing weather information to the pilot in flight are summarized. Use of discrete communications channels in the aeronautical, VHF band or subcarriers in the VOR navigation band are considered the best possibilities. Data rates can be provided such that inputs to the ground based transmitters from 2400 band telephone lines are easily accommodated together with additional data. The crucial weather data considered for uplinking are identified as radar reflectivity patterns relating to precipitation, spherics data, hourly sequences, nowcasts, forecasts, cloud top heights with freezing and icing conditions, the critical weather map and satellite maps. NEXRAD, the ground based, Doppler weather radar which will produce an improved weather product also encourages use of an uplink to fully utilize its capability to improve air safety.

Proactive approach to transportation resource allocation under severe winter weather emergencies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

Severe winter weather dramatically reduces road transportation infrastructure : serviceability and decreases safety throughout Oklahoma. Although it has relatively mild winters : when compared with northern regions of the United States, Oklahoma has ...

Build an Emergency Preparedness Kit

MedlinePlus

... tire traction -Red or brightly- colored cloth -NOAA weather radio For more information on building emergency kits, ... and a flashlight with extra batteries. A NOAA weather radio warns the public of severe weather and ...

The use of normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events and their relation to Weather Types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Gimeno, L.; Nieto, R.; Añel, J. A.

2009-09-01

Several methods have been developed to rank meteorological events in terms of severity, social impact or economic impacts. These classifications are not always objective since they depend of several factors, for instance, the observation network is biased towards the densely populated urban areas against rural or oceanic areas. It is also very important to note that not all rare synoptic-scale meteorological events attract significant media attention. In this work we use a comprehensive method of classifying synoptic-scale events adapted from Hart and Grumm, 2001, to the European region (30N-60N, 30W-15E). The main motivation behind this method is that the more unusual the event (a cold outbreak, a heat wave, or a flood), for a given region, the higher ranked it must be. To do so, we use four basic meteorological variables (Height, Temperature, Wind and Specific Humidity) from NCEP reanalysis dataset over the range of 1000hPa to 200hPa at a daily basis from 1948 to 2004. The climatology used embraces the 1961-1990 period. For each variable, the analysis of raking climatological anomalies was computed taking into account the daily normalized departure from climatology at different levels. For each day (from 1948 to 2004) we have four anomaly measures, one for each variable, and another, a combined where the anomaly (total anomaly) is the average of the anomaly of the four variables. Results will be analyzed on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis. Seasonal trends and variability will also be shown. In addition, and given the extent of the database, the expected return periods associated with the anomalies are revealed. Moreover, we also use an automated version of the Lamb weather type (WT) classification scheme (Jones et al, 1993) adapted for the Galicia area (Northwestern corner of the Iberian Peninsula) by Lorenzo et al (2008) in order to compute the daily local circulation regimes in this area. By combining the corresponding daily WT with the five anomaly measures we can evaluate if there is any preferable WT responsible for high or low values of anomalies. Hart, R.E and R.H. Grumm (2001) Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events objectivily. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 2426-2442. Jones, P. D., M. Hulme, K. R. Briffa (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with anobjective classification scheme. International Journal of Climatology, 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., J.J. Taboada and L.Gimeno (2008). Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). International Journal of Climatology 28(11): 1493:1505 DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646.

AIAA Educator Academy: The Space Weather Balloon Module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longmier, B.; Henriquez, E.; Bering, E. A.; Slagle, E.

2013-12-01

Educator Academy is a K-12 STEM curriculum developed by the STEM K-12 Outreach Committee of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). Consisting of three independent curriculum modules, K-12 students participate in inquiry-based science and engineering challenges to improve critical thinking skills and enhance problem solving skills. The Space Weather Balloon Curriculum Module is designed for students in grades 9-12. Throughout this module, students learn and refine physics concepts as well as experimental research skills. Students participate in project-based learning that is experimental in nature. Students are engaged with the world around them as they collaborate to launch a high altitude balloon equipped with HD cameras.The program leaders launch high altitude weather balloons in collaboration with schools and students to teach physics concepts, experimental research skills, and to make space exploration accessible to students. A weather balloon lifts a specially designed payload package that is composed of HD cameras, GPS tracking devices, and other science equipment. The payload is constructed and attached to the balloon by the students with low-cost materials. The balloon and payload are launched with FAA clearance from a site chosen based on wind patterns and predicted landing locations. The balloon ascends over 2 hours to a maximum altitude of 100,000 feet where it bursts and allows the payload to slowly descend using a built-in parachute. The payload is located using the GPS device. In April 2012, the Space Weather Balloon team conducted a prototype field campaign near Fairbanks Alaska, sending several student-built experiments to an altitude of 30km, underneath several strong auroral displays. To better assist teachers in implementing one or more of these Curriculum Modules, teacher workshops are held to give teachers a hands-on look at how this curriculum is used in the classroom. And, to provide further support, teachers are each provided with an AIAA professional member as a mentor for themselves and/or their students. These curriculum modules, provided by AIAA are available to any K-12 teachers as well as EPO officers for use in formal or informal education settings.

Winter Weather Emergencies

MedlinePlus

Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

Detecting Nanophase Weathering Products with CheMin: Reference Intensity Ratios of Allophane, Aluminosilicate Gel, and Ferrihydrite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampe, E. B.; Bish, D. L.; Chipera, S. J.; Morris, R. V.; Achilles, C. N.; Ming, D W.; Blake, D. F.; Anderson, R. C.; Bristow, T. F.; Crisp, A.;

Positive lightning and severe weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, C.; Murphy, B.

2003-04-01

In recent years researchers have noticed that severe weather (tornados, hail and damaging winds) are closely related to the amount of positive lightning occurring in thunderstorms. On 4 July 1999, a severe derecho (wind storm) caused extensive damage to forested regions along the United States/Canada border, west of Lake Superior. There were 665,000 acres of forest destroyed in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW) in Minnesota and Quetico Provincial Park in Canada, with approximately 12.5 million trees blown down. This storm resulted in additional severe weather before and after the occurrence of the derecho, with continuous cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurring for more than 34 hours during its path across North America. At the time of the derecho the percentage of positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning measured by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) was greater than 70% for more than three hours, with peak values reaching 97% positive CG lightning. Such high ratios of +CG are rare, and may be useful indicators for short-term forecasts of severe weather.

Meteoalarm severe wind gust thresholds from uniform periods in ECA&D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijnant, I. L.

2010-09-01

The main aim of our work is to propose new thresholds for Meteoalarm severe weather warnings which are based on the local climate, specifically for the severe wind gust warnings because the variability of these thresholds is currently rather extreme and unrealistic. In order to achieve this we added validated wind data to the database of the European Climate Assessment and Database project (ECA&D) and analysed them. We also developed wind related indices for ECA&D in order to facilitate further research. Since 2007 most of the severe weather warnings issued by the National Weather Services in Europe can be found on one website: www.meteoalarm.eu. For the 30 participating countries colour codes (yellow, orange, red) are presented on a map of Europe to reflect the severity of the weather event and its possible impact. The thresholds used for these colour codes obviously depend on the type of severe weather, but should also reflect local climate (for example: identical heat waves will have a more significant impact in Sweden than in Spain). The current Meteoalarm guideline is to issue second level warnings (orange) 1-30 times a year and third level warnings (red) less than once a year (being the total number of warnings from a specific country for all of the different sorts of severe weather events in that year). There is no similar guideline for specific sorts of severe weather events and participating countries choose their own thresholds. As a result we see unrealistic differences in the frequency and thresholds of the warnings for neighbouring countries. New thresholds based on return values would reflect the local climate of each country and give a more uniform indication of the social impact. Additionally, without uniform definitions of severe weather it remains difficult to determine if severe weather in Europe is changing. ECA&D receives long series of daily data from 62 countries throughout Europe and the Mediterranean. So far we have 7 countries that provide us with wind data. Quality control and homogeneity tests are conducted on all data before analysis is carried out. For wind data the standard ECA&D homogeneity tests (SNHT, Pettitt, Buishand and Von Neuman Ratio) are performed on the wind gust factor (the ratio of the maximum daily gust to the daily average wind speed) and a relatively new test (Petrovic's ReDistribution Method) on wind direction data. For the Dutch data we compared the results of the homogeneity tests with the available meta-data. Inhomogeneous series are not corrected but the older part (before the most recent break) is excluded from further analysis.

Total Lightning as a Severe Weather Diagnostic in Strongly Baroclinic Systems in Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, E.; Boldi, B.; Matlin, A.; Weber, M.; Hodanish, S.; Sharp, D.; Goodman, Steven J.; Raghavan, R.; Buechler, Dennis

1998-01-01

The establishment of a consistent behavior of total lightning activity in severe convective storms has been challenged historically by the relative scarcity of these storms combined with the difficulties inherent in documenting the (dominant) intracloud component of total lightning. This situation has changed recently with the abundance of severe weather in central Florida during 1997-98, including the tornado outbreak of February 23, 1998, and with the development of the operational LISDAD system (Boldi et al, this conference) to document these cases. This paper is concerned primarily with the behavior of total lightning in severe weather during the dry season when the Florida atmosphere is most strongly baroclinic. It has been found that all three manifestations of severe weather (ie., hall, wind, tornadoes) are consistently preceded by rapid increases in total flash rate with values often in excess of 100 flashes/minute. Preliminary analysis suggests that this systematic electrical behavior observed in summertime 'pulse severe' storms (Hodanish et al, this conference) also pertains to the more strongly baroclinic, long-track tornadic storms (more common in Oklahoma), as evidenced by the February 23, 1998 outbreak case in central Florida exhibiting two long-tracking F3 tornadoes. The largest flash rates in severe weather anywhere occur in baroclinic conditions at midlatitude. The physical plausibility of flash rates in excess of 100 per minute will be assessed. We will also consider the differences in storm structure for high flash rate storms that are non-severe.

Extreme precipitation events and related weather patterns over Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

raheem Al-nassar, Ali; Sangrà, Pablo; Alarcón, Marta

2016-04-01

This study aims to investigate the extreme precipitation events and the associated weather phenomena in the Middle East and particularly in Iraq. For this purpose we used Baghdad daily precipitation records from the Iraqi Meteorological and Seismology Organization combined with ECMWF (ERA-Interim) reanalysis data for the period from January 2002 to December 2013. Extreme events were found statistically at the 90% percentile of the recorded precipitation, and were highly correlated with hydrological flooding in some cities of Iraq. We identified fifteen extreme precipitation events. The analysis of the corresponding weather patterns (500 hPa and 250 hPa geopotential and velocity field distribution) indicated that 5 events were related with cut off low causing the highest precipitation (180 mm), 3 events related with rex block (158 mm), 3 events related with jet streak occurrence (130 mm) and 4 events related with troughs (107 mm). . Five of these events caused flash floods and in particular one of them related with a rex block was the most dramatic heavy rain event in Iraq in 30 years. We investigated for each case the convective instability and dynamical forcing together with humidity sources. For convective instability we explored the distribution of the K index and SWEAT index. For dynamical forcing we analyzed at several levels Q vector, divergence, potential and relative vorticity advection and omega vertical velocity. Source of humidity was investigated through humidity and convergence of specific humidity distribution. One triggering factor of all the events is the advection and convergence of humidity from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. Therefore a necessary condition for extreme precipitation in Iraq is the advection and convergence of humidity from the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Our preliminary analysis also indicates that extreme precipitation events are primary dynamical forced playing convective instability a secondary role.

Data deluxe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlowicz, Michael

Several new web pages from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will allow scientists and nonscientists alike to view graphic displays of weather and space weather data from around the world. Users can select a region of the Earth and a time period to see plots and data sets of everything from severe storms to aurorae.The National Climate Data Center has made available weather data from 8000 stations around the world, 160 satellite images of hurricanes from the GOES satellites, and technical reports about weather events such as the East Coast blizzard of 1996. The web address is http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov.

Local weather conditions have complex effects on the growth of blue tit nestlings.

PubMed

Mainwaring, Mark C; Hartley, Ian R

2016-08-01

Adverse weather conditions are expected to result in impaired nestling development in birds, but empirical studies have provided equivocal support for such a relationship. This may be because the negative effects of adverse weather conditions are masked by parental effects. Globally, ambient temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds are all expected to increase in a changing climate and so there is a need for a better understanding of the relationship between weather conditions and nestling growth. Here, we describe a correlative study that examined the relationships between local temperatures, rainfall levels and wind speeds and the growth of individual blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) nestlings in relation to their hatching order and sex. We found that changes in a range of morphological characters were negatively related to both temperature and wind speed, but positively related to rainfall. These patterns were further influenced by the hatching order of the nestlings but not by nestling sex. This suggests that the predicted changes in local weather conditions may have complex effects on nestling growth, but that parents may be able to mitigate the adverse effects via adaptive parental effects. We therefore conclude that local weather conditions have complex effects on avian growth and the implications for patterns of avian growth in a changing climate are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

14 CFR Appendix D to Part 141 - Commercial Pilot Certification Course

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Board; (3) Basic aerodynamics and the principles of flight; (4) Meteorology, to include recognition of critical weather situations, windshear recognition and avoidance, and the use of aeronautical weather... pattern); and (iv) 3 hours in a gyroplane in preparation for the practical test within 60 days preceding...

14 CFR Appendix D to Part 141 - Commercial Pilot Certification Course

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Board; (3) Basic aerodynamics and the principles of flight; (4) Meteorology, to include recognition of critical weather situations, windshear recognition and avoidance, and the use of aeronautical weather... pattern); and (iv) 3 hours in a gyroplane in preparation for the practical test within 60 days preceding...

Potential climate change impacts on fire weather in the United States

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; Ying Tang; Lifeng Luo; Shiyuan Zhong; Julie Winkler; Xindi. Bian

2015-01-01

Researchers at Michigan State University and the Forest Service's Northern Research Station worked on a joint study to examine the possible effects of future global and regional climate change on the occurrence of fire-weather patterns often associated with extreme and erratic wildfire behavior in the United States.

Seasonal weather-related decision making for cattle production in the Northern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

High inter-annual variability of seasonal weather patterns can greatly affect forage and therefore livestock production in the Northern Great Plains. This variability can make it difficult for ranchers to set yearly stocking rates, particularly in advance of the grazing season. To better understand ...

NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard;

Concentration-discharge relationships reflect chemostatic characteristics of US catchments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Godsey, S.E.; Kirchner, J.W.; Clow, D.W.

2009-01-01

Concentration-discharge relationships have been widely used as clues to the hydrochemical processes that control runoff chemistry. Here we examine concentration-discharge relationships for solutes produced primarily by mineral weathering in 59 geochemically diverse US catchments. We show that these catchments exhibit nearly chemostatic behaviour; their stream concentrations of weathering products such as Ca, Mg, Na, and Si typically vary by factors of only 3 to 20 while discharge varies by several orders of magnitude. Similar patterns are observed at the inter-annual time scale. This behaviour implies that solute concentrations in stream water are not determined by simple dilution of a fixed solute flux by a variable flux of water, and that rates of solute production and/or mobilization must be nearly proportional to water fluxes, both on storm and inter-annual timescales. We compared these catchments' concentration-discharge relationships to the predictions of several simple hydrological and geochemical models. Most of these models can be forced to approximately fit the observed concentration-discharge relationships, but often only by assuming unrealistic or internally inconsistent parameter values. We propose a new model that also fits the data and may be more robust. We suggest possible tests of the new model for future studies. The relative stability of concentration under widely varying discharge may help make aquatic environments habitable. It also implies that fluxes of weathering solutes in streams, and thus fluxes of alkalinity to the oceans, are determined primarily by water fluxes. Thus, hydrology may be a major driver of the ocean-alkalinity feedback regulating climate change. Copyright ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ecology of West Nile virus across four European countries: empirical modelling of the Culex pipiens abundance dynamics as a function of weather.

PubMed

Groen, Thomas A; L'Ambert, Gregory; Bellini, Romeo; Chaskopoulou, Alexandra; Petric, Dusan; Zgomba, Marija; Marrama, Laurence; Bicout, Dominique J

2017-10-26

Culex pipiens is the major vector of West Nile virus in Europe, and is causing frequent outbreaks throughout the southern part of the continent. Proper empirical modelling of the population dynamics of this species can help in understanding West Nile virus epidemiology, optimizing vector surveillance and mosquito control efforts. But modelling results may differ from place to place. In this study we look at which type of models and weather variables can be consistently used across different locations. Weekly mosquito trap collections from eight functional units located in France, Greece, Italy and Serbia for several years were combined. Additionally, rainfall, relative humidity and temperature were recorded. Correlations between lagged weather conditions and Cx. pipiens dynamics were analysed. Also seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models were fitted to describe the temporal dynamics of Cx. pipiens and to check whether the weather variables could improve these models. Correlations were strongest between mean temperatures at short time lags, followed by relative humidity, most likely due to collinearity. Precipitation alone had weak correlations and inconsistent patterns across sites. SARIMA models could also make reasonable predictions, especially when longer time series of Cx. pipiens observations are available. Average temperature was a consistently good predictor across sites. When only short time series (~ < 4 years) of observations are available, average temperature can therefore be used to model Cx. pipiens dynamics. When longer time series (~ > 4 years) are available, SARIMAs can provide better statistical descriptions of Cx. pipiens dynamics, without the need for further weather variables. This suggests that density dependence is also an important determinant of Cx. pipiens dynamics.

Severe Weather Field Experience: An Undergraduate Field Course on Career Enhancement and Severe Convective Storms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Godfrey, Christopher M.; Barrett, Bradford S.; Godfrey, Elaine S.

2011-01-01

Undergraduate students acquire a deeper understanding of scientific principles through first-hand experience. To enhance the learning environment for atmospheric science majors, the University of North Carolina at Asheville has developed the severe weather field experience. Participants travel to Tornado Alley in the Great Plains to forecast and…

Data Mining for Understanding and Improving Decision-making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

2013-01-01

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions.

Impact of assimilating GOES imager clear-sky radiance with a rapid refresh assimilation system for convection-permitting forecast over Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chun; Liu, Zhiquan; Gao, Feng; Childs, Peter P.; Min, Jinzhong

2017-05-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imager data could provide a continuous image of the evolutionary pattern of severe weather phenomena with its high spatial and temporal resolution. The capability to assimilate the GOES imager radiances has been developed within the Weather Research and Forecasting model's data assimilation system. Compared to the benchmark experiment with no GOES imager data, the impact of assimilating GOES imager radiances on the analysis and forecast of convective process over Mexico in 7-10 March 2016 was assessed through analysis/forecast cycling experiments using rapid refresh assimilation system with hybrid-3DEnVar scheme. With GOES imager radiance assimilation, better analyses were obtained in terms of the humidity, temperature, and simulated water vapor channel brightness temperature distribution. Positive forecast impacts from assimilating GOES imager radiance were seen when verified against the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting observation, GOES imager observation, and Mexico station precipitation data.

Climate change and wildfire around southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimura, K.

2013-12-01

When the climate change in southern Africa is analyzed, the effects of rainfall by Inter Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) and cyclone are important. In this study, the rainfall patterns are analyzed with synoptic analysis. The southern limit of ITCZ is around the arid zone around Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. This zone has some effects of both ITCZ and extratropical cyclones by season. As well as this, the eastern part of this area has heavy rainfall by the cyclone from the Indian Ocean once in several years. In the other hand, a lot of wildfire occurs in this area. The main cause of the wildfire is anthropogenic misbehavior of the fire by the slash-and-burn agriculture. Recently we can find the wildfire detected with the satellite imagery like Terra/Aqua MODIS. We can compare the weather environment and the wildfire occurrence with Geographical Information System. We have tried making the fire weather index suitable for the southern African semi-arid area.

Nocturnal activity patterns of northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis) during the maternity season in West Virginia (USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, J.B.; Edwards, J.W.; Ford, W.M.

2011-01-01

Nocturnal activity patterns of northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis) at diurnal roost trees remain largely uninvestigated. For example, the influence of reproductive status, weather, and roost tree and surrounding habitat characteristics on timing of emergence, intra-night activity, and entrance at their roost trees is poorly known. We examined nocturnal activity patterns of northern myotis maternity colonies during pregnancy and lactation at diurnal roost trees situated in areas that were and were not subjected to recent prescribed fires at the Fernow Experimental Forest, West Virginia from 2007 to 2009. According to exit counts and acoustic data, northern myotis colony sizes were similar between reproductive periods and roost tree settings. However, intra-night activity patterns differed slightly between reproductive periods and roost trees in burned and non-burned areas. Weather variables poorly explained variation in activity patterns during pregnancy, but precipitation and temperature were negatively associated with activity patterns during lactation. ?? Museum and Institute of Zoology PAS.

Characterization of fire regime in Sardinia (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Mastinu, S.; Masala, F.; Sirca, C.; Spano, D.

2012-12-01

In the last decades, a number of Authors highlighted the crucial role of forest fires within Mediterranean ecosystems, with impacts both negative and positive on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In Sardinia (Italy), the second largest island of the Mediterranean Basin, forest fires are perceived as one of the main environmental and social problems, and data are showing that the situation is worsening especially within the rural-urban peripheries and the increasing number of very large forest fires. The need for information concerning forest fire regime has been pointed out by several Authors (e.g. Rollins et al., 2002), who also emphasized the importance of understanding the factors (such as weather/climate, socio-economic, and land use) that determine spatial and temporal fire patterns. These would be used not only as a baseline to predict the climate change effect on forest fires, but also as a fire management and mitigation strategy. The main aim of this paper is, thus, to analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) during the last three decades (1980-2010). For the analyzed period, fire statistics were provided by the Sardinian Forest Service (CFVA - Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale), while weather data for eight weather stations were obtained from the web site www.tutiempo.it. For each station, daily series of precipitation, mean, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were available. The present study firstly analyzed fire statistics (burned area and number of fires) according to the main fire regime characteristics (seasonality, fire return interval, fire incidence, fire size distribution). Then, fire and weather daily values were averaged to obtain monthly, seasonal and annual values, and a set of parametric and not parametric statistical tests were used to analyze the fire-weather relationships. Results showed a high inter- and intra-annual variability, also considering the different type of affected vegetation. As for other Mediterranean areas, a smaller number of large fires caused a high proportion of burned area. Land cover greatly influenced fire occurrence and fire size distribution across the landscape. Furthermore, fire activity (number of fires and area burned) showed significant correlations with weather variables, especially summer precipitation and wind, which seemed to drive the fire seasons and the fire propagation, respectively.

The effect of ambient exposure to PM2.5 on the transfusion usage of blood components and adverse transfusion reactions in the haze weather.

PubMed

Chang, Chih-Chun; Lin, Hui-Jung; Sun, Jen-Tang; Li, Pei-Yu; Lee, Tai-Chen; Su, Ming-Jang; Yen, Tzung-Hai; Chu, Fang-Yeh

2016-10-01

Accumulating evidence has shown that ambient exposure to PM 2.5 , especially in the haze weather, increased the risk of various diseases. However, the association of air pollution status with blood transfusion utilization and the prevalence and severity of adverse transfusion reactions remain to be clarified. The data of monthly transfusion usage of blood components, adverse transfusion reactions, as well as PM 2.5 and PM 10 levels from 2013 to 2015 were obtained. During the study interval, both PM 2.5 and PM 10 levels were significantly increased in the haze weather when compared with the non-haze weather. The utilization of total blood components per patient-month in the haze weather was prone to be increased when compared with that in the non-haze weather (13.28 ± 1.66 vs. 12.33 ± 1.30, p = 0.068). The usage of RBC products per patient-month in the haze weather was significantly increased when compared with that in the non-haze weather (4.39 ± 0.39 vs. 4.07 ± 0.30, p = 0.009). There was no obvious difference between the haze and non-haze weathers for the usage of platelet and plasma products per patient-month. Besides, no definite differences of the prevalence and severity of transfusion-associated adverse reaction were observed between the haze and non-haze weathers. Our study first indicated that transfusion utilization, particularly the RBC products, was significantly increased in the haze weather when compared with that in the non-haze weather. There was no obvious association of air pollution with the prevalence and severity of adverse transfusion reactions and further research is required. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute's severe storm nowcasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novak, Petr

2007-02-01

To satisfy requirements for operational severe weather monitoring and prediction, the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) has developed a severe storm nowcasting system which uses weather radar data as its primary data source. Previous CHMI studies identified two methods of radar echo prediction, which were then implemented during 2003 into the Czech weather radar network operational weather processor. The applications put into operations were the Continuity Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation (COTREC) algorithm, and an application that predicts future radar fields using the wind field derived from the geopotential at 700 hPa calculated from a local numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). To ensure timely delivery of the prediction products to the users, the forecasts are implemented into a web-based viewer (JSMeteoView) that has been developed by the CHMI Radar Department. At present, this viewer is used by all CHMI forecast offices for versatile visualization of radar and other meteorological data (Meteosat, lightning detection, NWP LAM output, SYNOP data) in the Internet/Intranet environment, and the viewer has detailed geographical navigation capabilities.

Crowdsourcing of weather observations at national meteorological and hydrological services in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krennert, Thomas; Pistotnik, Georg; Kaltenberger, Rainer; Csekits, Christian

2018-05-01

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) increase their efforts to deliver impact-based weather forecasts and warnings. At the same time, a desired increase in cost-efficiency prompts these services to automatize their weather station networks and to reduce the number of human observers, which leads to a lack of ground truth information about weather phenomena and their impact. A possible alternative is to encourage the general public to submit weather observations, which may include crucial information especially in high-impact situations. We wish to provide an overview of the state and properties of existing collaborations between NMHSs and voluntary weather observers or storm spotters across Europe. For that purpose, we performed a survey among 30 European NMHSs, from which 22 NMHSs returned our questionnaire. This study summarizes the most important findings and evaluates the use of crowdsourced information. 86 % of the surveyed NMHSs utilize information provided by the general public, 50 % have established official collaborations with spotter groups, and 18 % have formalized them. The observations are most commonly used for a real-time improvement of severe weather warnings, their verification, and an establishment of a climatology of severe weather events. The importance of these volunteered weather and impact observations has strongly risen over the past decade. We expect that this trend will continue and that storm spotters will become an essential part in severe weather warning, like they have been for decades in the United States of America. A rising number of incoming reports implies that quality management will become an increasing issue, and we finally discuss an idea how to handle this challenge.

Is countershading camouflage robust to lighting change due to weather?

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Countershading is a pattern of coloration thought to have evolved in order to implement camouflage. By adopting a pattern of coloration that makes the surface facing towards the sun darker and the surface facing away from the sun lighter, the overall amount of light reflected off an animal can be made more uniformly bright. Countershading could hence contribute to visual camouflage by increasing background matching or reducing cues to shape. However, the usefulness of countershading is constrained by a particular pattern delivering ‘optimal’ camouflage only for very specific lighting conditions. In this study, we test the robustness of countershading camouflage to lighting change due to weather, using human participants as a ‘generic’ predator. In a simulated three-dimensional environment, we constructed an array of simple leaf-shaped items and a single ellipsoidal target ‘prey’. We set these items in two light environments: strongly directional ‘sunny’ and more diffuse ‘cloudy’. The target object was given the optimal pattern of countershading for one of these two environment types or displayed a uniform pattern. By measuring detection time and accuracy, we explored whether and how target detection depended on the match between the pattern of coloration on the target object and scene lighting. Detection times were longest when the countershading was appropriate to the illumination; incorrectly camouflaged targets were detected with a similar pattern of speed and accuracy to uniformly coloured targets. We conclude that structural changes in light environment, such as caused by differences in weather, do change the effectiveness of countershading camouflage. PMID:29515822

Dimensions and dynamics of citizen observatories: The case of online amateur weather networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharesifard, Mohammad; Wehn, Uta; van der Zaag, Pieter

2016-04-01

Crowd-sourced environmental observations are being increasingly considered as having the potential to enhance the spatial and temporal resolution of current data streams from terrestrial and areal sensors. The rapid diffusion of ICTs during the past decades has facilitated the process of data collection and sharing by the general public (so-called citizen science) and has resulted in the formation of various online environmental citizen observatory networks. Online amateur weather networks are a particular example of such ICT-mediated citizen observatories as one of the oldest and most widely practiced citizen science activities. The objective of this paper is to introduce a conceptual framework that enables a systematic review of different dimensions of these mushrooming/expanding networks. These dimensions include the geographic scope and types of network participants; the network's establishment mechanism, revenue stream(s) and existing communication paradigm; efforts required by citizens and support offered by platform providers; and issues such as data accessibility, availability and quality. An in-depth understanding of these dimensions helps to analyze various dynamics such as interactions between different stakeholders, motivations to run these networks, sustainability of the platforms, data ownership and level of transparency of each network. This framework is then utilized to perform a critical and normative review of six existing online amateur weather networks based on publicly available data. The main findings of this analysis suggest that: (1) There are several key stakeholders such as emergency services and local authorities that are not (yet) engaged in these networks. (2) The revenue stream(s) of online amateur weather networks is one of the least discussed but most important dimensions that is crucial for the sustainability of these networks. (3) Although all of the networks included in this study have one or more explicit pattern of two-way communications, there is no sign (yet) of interactive information exchange among the triangle of weather observers, data aggregators and policy makers. KEYWORDS Citizen Science, Citizen Observatories, ICT-enabled citizen participation, online amateur weather networks

Severe weather detection by using Japanese Total Lightning Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobara, Yasuhide; Ishii, Hayato; Kumagai, Yuri; Liu, Charlie; Heckman, Stan; Price, Colin

2015-04-01

In this paper we demonstrate the preliminary results from the first Japanese Total Lightning Network. The University of Electro-Communications (UEC) recently deployed Earth Networks Total Lightning System over Japan to conduct various lightning research projects. Here we analyzed the total lightning data in relation with 10 severe events such as gust fronts and tornadoes occurred in 2014 in mainland Japan. For the analysis of these events, lightning jump algorithm was used to identify the increase of the flash rate in prior to the severe weather events. We found that lightning jumps associated with significant increasing lightning activities for total lightning and IC clearly indicate the severe weather occurrence than those for CGs.

A hybrid modulation for the dissemination of weather data to aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Akos, Dennis M.

1991-01-01

Ohio University is continuing to conduct research to improve its system for weather data dissemination to aircraft. The current experimental system transmit compressed weather radar reflectivity patterns from a ground based station to aircraft. Although an effective system, the limited frequency spectrum does not provide a channel for transmission. This introduces the idea of a hybrid modulation. The hybrid technique encodes weather data using phase modulation (PM) onto an existing aeronautical channel which employs amplitude modulation (AM) for voice signal transmission. Ideally, the two modulations are independent of one another. The planned implementation and basis of the system are the reviewed.

Recognize PM2.5 sources and emission patterns via high-density sensor network: An application case in Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ba, Yu tao; xian Liu, Bao; Sun, Feng; Wang, Li hua; Zhang, Da wei; Yin, Wen jun

2017-04-01

Beijing suffered severe air pollution during wintertime, 2016, with the unprecedented high level pollutants monitored. As the most dominant pollutant, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was measured via high-density sensor network (>1000 fixed monitors across 16000 km2 area). This campaign provided precise observations (spatial resolution ≈ 3 km, temporal resolution = 10 min, error of measure < 5 ug/m3) to track potential emission sources. In addition, these observations coupled with WRF-Chem model (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry) were analyzed to elucidate the effects of atmospheric transportations across regions, both horizontal and vertical, on emission patterns during this haze period. The results quantified the main cause of regional transport and local emission, and highlighted the importance of cross-region cooperation in anti-pollution campaigns.

Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

PubMed

Theofilatos, Athanasios

2017-06-01

The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Thresholds in Soil Mineral Weathering and Relation to Streamwater Chemistry in Glaciated Catchments of the Northeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, S. W.; Ross, D. S.

2015-12-01

Primary mineral dissolution (i.e. weathering) is a critical process in forested catchments as an important consumer of acidity and CO2, the principle source of nutrients such as Ca, K, and P, as well as the source of toxic cations such as Al. Two common limitations of weathering studies are inadequate determination of mineralogic composition and insufficient sampling depth to determine location and advancement of weathering reactions. We determined mineral stocks through EPMA mapping of Al, Ca, Fe, P, and Si content of soil samples and development of an image analysis routine that assigned mineral composition based on the content of these five elements. Portions of the classified maps were confirmed by optical petrography and full elemental analysis by SEM-EDS. Samples were analyzed for soil profiles >2m depth (~1.5m past the upper boundary of the "unweathered" C horizon). Study sites spanned a range of weatherability found in catchments in glaciated northeastern USA including Winnisook, NY (sandstone parent material, 100 ppm Ca), Hubbard Brook, NH (granite, 0.9% Ca), and Sleepers River, VT (calcareous granulite, 3.5% Ca). All profiles exhibited a weathering front, or threshold above which the most reactive minerals (calcite, apatite) have been depleted. However, in all cases this threshold was below the rooting zone, and in many profiles, it was well below the C horizon interface. Catchment scale Ca exports reflect this deeper weathering source while rooting zone exchangeable Ca was highly variable, probably reflecting spatial patterns of hydrologic flowpaths which bring deeper weathering products to the surface only in certain landscape positions. These results suggest that nutrient cycling and critical loads models, which assume that ecologically relevant weathering is confined to the rooting zone, need to be refined to account for deeper weathering and spatial patterns of lateral and upward hydrologic fluxes. Similarly, recovery from cultural acidification may be limited in portions of catchments where hydrologic connections do not provide a vehicle for weathering products to recharge the biologically active portion of the subsurface.

Lightning attachment patterns and flight conditions for storm hazards, 1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, B. D.; Keyser, G. L., Jr.; Deal, P. L.

1982-01-01

As part of the NASA Langley Research Center Storm Hazards Program, 69 thunderstorm pentrations were made in 1980 with an F-106B airplane in order to record direct strike lightning data and the associated flight conditions. Ground based weather radar measurements in conjunction with these penetrations were made by NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory in Oklahoma and by NASA Wallops Flight Center in Virginia. In 1980, the airplane received 10 direct lightning strikes; in addition, lightning transient data were recorded from 6 nearby flashes. Following each flight, the airplane was thoroughly inspected for evidence of lightning attachment, and the individual lightning attachment points were plotted on isometric projections of the airplane to identify swept flash patterns. This report presents pilot descriptions of the direct strikes to the airplane, shows the strike attachment patterns that were found, and discusses the implications of the patterns with respect to aircraft protection design. The flight conditions are also included. Finally, the lightning strike scenarios for three U.S. Air Force F-106A airplanes which were struck during routine operations are given in the appendix to this paper.

Aviation weather services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sprinkle, C. H.

1983-01-01

The primary responsibilities of the National Weather Service (NWS) are to: provide warnings of severe weather and flooding for the protection of life and property; provide public forecasts for land and adjacent ocean areas for planning and operation; and provide weather support for: production of food and fiber; management of water resources; production, distribution and use of energy; and efficient and safe air operations.

77 FR 53886 - February 2011 Southwest Cold Weather Event Follow-up Technical Conference; Notice of Technical...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-04

... Southwest Cold Weather Event Follow-up Technical Conference; Notice of Technical Conference Take notice that... August 16, 2011 Report on Outages and Curtailments During the Southwest Cold Weather Event of February 1... severe cold weather issues that led to rolling blackouts affecting over 4 million customers and natural...

Impact of Temperature Trends on Short-Term Energy Demand, The (Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement September 1999)

EIA Publications

1999-01-01

The past few years have witnessed unusually warm weather, as evidenced by both mild winters and hot summers. The analysis shows that the 30-year norms--the basis of weather-related energy demand projections--do not reflect the warming trend or its regional and seasonal patterns.

Forage and weather influence day versus nighttime cow behavior and calf weaning weights on rangeland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We determined the effects of two forage allowance levels (LOW vs. HIGH) and weather conditions on day- and nighttime movement patterns of young rangeland-raised cows. We also investigated whether calf weaning weights (WW, n = 42) were significantly related to their dams' post-calving movement patter...

Adjustment of relative humidity and temperature for differences in elevation.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1961-01-01

The variation of fire-weather elements in mountainous terrain is complex at any one time, and the patterns vary considerably with time. During periods of serious fire weather, this variation becomes important. Much information is obtainable by local interpretation of available forecasts and observations. Optimum use of available information requires some understanding...

Tropospheric Waves, Jet Streams, and United States Weather Patterns. Resource Paper No. 11.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harman, Jay R.

Intended as a supplement to undergraduate college geography courses, this resource paper reviews the mechanism by which surface weather features are linked with the mid-atmospheric circulation within the westerly wind belt. Specifically, vertical atmospheric motions associated with certain aspects of the upper tropospheric flow, including jet…

Socio-Economic Impacts of Space Weather and User Needs for Space Weather Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.

2017-12-01

The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) details the activities, outcomes, and timelines to build a "Space Weather Ready Nation." NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and Abt Associates are working together on two SWAP initiatives: (1) identifying, describing, and quantifying the socio-economic impacts of moderate and severe space weather; and (2) outreach to engineers and operators to better understand user requirements for space weather products and services. Both studies cover four technological sectors (electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and GNSS users) and rely heavily on industry input. Findings from both studies are essential for decreasing vulnerabilities and enhancing preparedness.

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array: Recent Results and Future Prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.; Boccippio, D.; Koshak, W.; Bailey, J.; Hall, J.; Bateman, M.; McCaul, E.; Buechler, D.

2002-01-01

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array became operational in November 2001 as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technologies into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather and the warning decision-making process. The LMA project is a collaboration among NASA scientists, National Weather Service (NWS) weather forecast offices (WFOs), emergency managers, and other partners. The time rate-of-change of storm characteristics and life-cycle trending are accomplished in real-time through the second generation Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (LISDAD II) system, initially developed in T997 through a collaboration among NASA/MSFC, MIT/Lincoln Lab and the Melbourne, FL WFO. LISDAD II is now a distributed decision support system with a JAVA-based display application that allows anyone, anywhere to track individual storm histories within the Tennessee Valley region of the southeastern U.S. Since the inauguration of the LMA there has been an abundance of severe weather. During 23-24 November 2001, a major tornado outbreak was monitored by LMA in its first data acquisition effort (36 tornadoes in Alabama). Since that time the LMA has collected a vast amount of data on hailstorms and damaging wind events, non-tornadic supercells, and ordinary non-severe thunderstorms. In this paper we provide an overview of LMA observations and discuss future prospects for improving the short-term forecasting of convective weather.

Constructing Data Albums for Significant Severe Weather Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, Ethan; Zavodsky, Bradley; Ramachandran, Rahul; Kulkarni, Ajinkya; Li, Xiang; Bakare, Rohan; Basyal, Sabin; Conover, Helen

2014-01-01

There is need in the research community for weather-related case studies to improve prediction of and recovery after convective thunderstorms that produce damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. One of the largest continuing challenges in any Earth Science investigation is the discovery of and access to useful science content from the increasingly large volumes of available Earth Science data. The Information Technology and Systems Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville has developed a software system called Noesis 2.0 that can be used to produce Data Albums for weather events relevant to NASA Earth Science researchers. Noesis is an Internet search tool that combines relevant storm research, pictures and videos of an event or event aftermath, web pages containing news reports and official storm summaries, background information about damage, injuries, and deaths, and NASA datasets from field campaigns and satellites into a "one-stop shop" database. The Data Album concept has been previously applied to hurricane cases from 2010 to present. The objective of this paper is to extend that Hurricane Data Album concept to focus on development of an ontology for significant severe weather to aid in selecting appropriate NASA datasets for inclusion in a severe weather Data Album. Recent severe weather events in Moore and El Reno, Oklahoma will be analyzed as an example of how these events can be incorporated into a Data Album.

Lightning swept-stroke attachment patterns and flight conditions for storm hazards 1981

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, B. D.

1984-01-01

As part of the NASA Langley Research Center Storm Hazards Program, 111 thunderstorm penetrations were made in 1981 with an F-106B airplane in order to record direct-strike lightning data and the associated flight conditions. Ground-based weather radar measurements in conjunction with these penetrations were made by NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory in Oklahoma and by NASA Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia. In 1981, the airplane received 10 direct lightning strikes; in addition, lightning transient data were recorded from 22 nearby flashes. Following each flight, the airplane was thoroughly inspected for evidence of lightning attachment, and the individual lightning attachment points were plotted on isometric projections of the airplane to identify swept-flash patterns. This report shows the strike attachment patterns that were found, and tabulates the flight conditions at the time of each lightning event. Finally, this paper contains a table in which the data in this report are cross-referenced with the previously published electromagnetic waveform data recorded onboard the airplane.

A Weather Radar Simulator for the Evaluation of Polarimetric Phased Array Performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Byrd, Andrew D.; Ivic, Igor R.; Palmer, Robert D.

A radar simulator capable of generating time series data for a polarimetric phased array weather radar has been designed and implemented. The received signals are composed from a high-resolution numerical prediction weather model. Thousands of scattering centers, each with an independent randomly generated Doppler spectrum, populate the field of view of the radar. The moments of the scattering center spectra are derived from the numerical weather model, and the scattering center positions are updated based on the three-dimensional wind field. In order to accurately emulate the effects of the system-induced cross-polar contamination, the array is modeled using a complete setmore » of dual-polarization radiation patterns. The simulator offers reconfigurable element patterns and positions as well as access to independent time series data for each element, resulting in easy implementation of any beamforming method. It also allows for arbitrary waveform designs and is able to model the effects of quantization on waveform performance. Simultaneous, alternating, quasi-simultaneous, and pulse-to-pulse phase coded modes of polarimetric signal transmission have been implemented. This framework allows for realistic emulation of the effects of cross-polar fields on weather observations, as well as the evaluation of possible techniques for the mitigation of those effects.« less

An analysis of high-impact, low-predictive skill severe weather events in the northeast U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Matthew T.

An objective evaluation of Storm Prediction Center slight risk convective outlooks, as well as a method to identify high-impact severe weather events with poor-predictive skill are presented in this study. The objectives are to assess severe weather forecast skill over the northeast U.S. relative to the continental U.S., build a climatology of high-impact, low-predictive skill events between 1980--2013, and investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic differences between severe weather events with low-predictive skill and high-predictive skill over the northeast U.S. Severe storm reports of hail, wind, and tornadoes are used to calculate skill scores including probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and threat scores (TS) for each convective outlook. Low predictive skill events are binned into low POD (type 1) and high FAR (type 2) categories to assess temporal variability of low-predictive skill events. Type 1 events were found to occur in every year of the dataset with an average of 6 events per year. Type 2 events occur less frequently and are more common in the earlier half of the study period. An event-centered composite analysis is performed on the low-predictive skill database using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis 0.5° gridded dataset to analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions prior to high-impact severe weather events with varying predictive skill. Deep-layer vertical shear between 1000--500 hPa is found to be a significant discriminator in slight risk forecast skill where high-impact events with less than 31-kt shear have lower threat scores than high-impact events with higher shear values. Case study analysis of type 1 events suggests the environment over which severe weather occurs is characterized by high downdraft convective available potential energy, steep low-level lapse rates, and high lifting condensation level heights that contribute to an elevated risk of severe wind.

Impact of Probabilistic Weather on Flight Routing Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheth, Kapil; Sridhar, Banavar; Mulfinger, Daniel

2006-01-01

Flight delays in the United States have been found to increase year after year, along with the increase in air traffic. During the four-month period from May through August of 2005, weather related delays accounted for roughly 70% of all reported delays, The current weather prediction in tactical (within 2 hours) timeframe is at manageable levels, however, the state of forecasting weather for strategic (2-6 hours) timeframe is still not dependable for long-term planning. In the absence of reliable severe weather forecasts, the decision-making for flights longer than two hours is challenging. This paper deals with an approach of using probabilistic weather prediction for Traffic Flow Management use, and a general method using this prediction for estimating expected values of flight length and delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). The current state-of-the-art convective weather forecasting is employed to aid the decision makers in arriving at decisions for traffic flow and flight planing. The six-agency effort working on the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) have considered weather-assimilated decision-making as one of the principal foci out of a list of eight. The weather Integrated Product Team has considered integrated weather information and improved aviation weather forecasts as two of the main efforts (Ref. 1, 2). Recently, research has focused on the concept of operations for strategic traffic flow management (Ref. 3) and how weather data can be integrated for improved decision-making for efficient traffic management initiatives (Ref. 4, 5). An overview of the weather data needs and benefits of various participants in the air traffic system along with available products can be found in Ref. 6. Previous work related to use of weather data in identifying and categorizing pilot intrusions into severe weather regions (Ref. 7, 8) has demonstrated a need for better forecasting in the strategic planning timeframes and moving towards a probabilistic description of weather (Ref. 9). This paper focuses on. specified probability in a local region for flight intrusion/deviation decision-making. The process uses a probabilistic weather description, implements that in a air traffic assessment system to study trajectories of aircraft crossing a cut-off probability contour. This value would be useful for meteorologists in creating optimum distribution profiles for severe weather, Once available, the expected values of flight path and aggregate delays are calculated for efficient operations. The current research, however, does not deal with the issue of multiple cell encounters, as well as echo tops, and will be a topic of future work.

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Colorado Floods in September 2013.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, P.; Patricola, C. M.; Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.

2015-12-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during the second week of September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico and eastern tropical Pacific towards the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods across the South Platte River basin impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. A recent study using observational-based re-analysis to drive the regional WRF model finds that, given very little change in the large-scale weather pattern, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour over northeast Colorado under anthropogenic climate warming, with a positive dynamical feedback drawing in moisture from further afield. This leads to a substantial increase in the magnitude and odds of heavy rainfall occurring over northeast Colorado during the rainy week of September 2013. Here we develop this work by including a hydrological modelling component in order to investigate any anthropogenic influence on the actual flood magnitude and occurrence across the South Platte basin during that time. We use WRF precipitation output from the aforementioned study - in both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic configurations for September 2013 - to drive the recently developed high-resolution WRF-Hydro model over the basin and generate river runoff. Thus by comparing changes in runoff under the anthropogenic / non-anthropogenic driving conditions we assess any influence on the magnitude and odds of flood occurrence. Integral to this, we test the sensitivity of our results to hydrological parameters, such as infiltration, base flow, and land use/cover.

Diagnosing Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, P.; Patricola, C. M.; Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

Unusually heavy rainfall occurred over the Colorado Front Range during early September 2013, with record or near-record totals recorded in several locations. It was associated predominantly with a stationary large-scale weather pattern (akin to the North American Monsoon, which occurs earlier in the year) that drove a strong plume of deep moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico against the Front Range foothills. The resulting floods impacted several thousands of people and many homes, roads, and businesses. To diagnose possible anthropogenic contributions to the odds of such heavy rainfall, we adapt an existing event attribution paradigm of modelling a 'world that was' for September 2013 and comparing it to a modelled 'world that might have been' for that same time but for the absence of historical anthropogenic drivers of climate. Specifically, we first perform 'world that was' simulations with the regional WRF model at 12 km resolution over North America, driven by NCEP2 re-analysis. We then re-simulate, having adjusted the re-analysis to 'world that might have been conditions' by modifying atmospheric greenhouse gas and other pollutant concentrations, temperature, humidity, and winds, as well as sea ice coverage, and sea-surface temperatures - all according to estimates from global climate model simulations. Thus our findings are highly conditional on the driving re-analysis and adjustments therein, but the setup allows us to elucidate possible mechanisms responsible for heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013. For example, preliminary analysis suggests that, given no change in the pattern of large-scale driving weather, there is an increase in atmospheric water vapour under anthropogenic climate warming leading to a substantial increase in the odds of heavy rainfall over the Front Range.

The Road Weather Bulletin : Road Weather Management Publications and Training Materials

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

This document summarizes results from the Road Weather Policy Forum held November 8-9, 2010 in Washington, D.C. The agenda outlines a research framework, broad research needs, and the various roles and responsibilities of several stakeholder sectors.

Forcing, properties, structure, and antecedent synoptic climatology of the Snake River Plain Convergence Zone of eastern Idaho: Analyses of observations and numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andretta, Thomas A.

The Snake River Plain Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a convergent shear zone generated by synoptic-scale post cold-frontal winds in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) interacting with the complex topography of eastern Idaho. The SPCZ produces clouds and occasional precipitation over time scales of 6--12 hours in a significant area of mesoscale dimensions (10--50 x 10 3 km2). This meso-beta-scale feature also contributes to the precipitation climatology in a semi-arid plain. The SPCZ is climatologically linked to the passage of synoptic-scale cold fronts and typically occurs in the fall and winter months with the highest frequencies in October, November, and January. The Snake River Plain of eastern Idaho is covered by a dense surface mesonetwork of towers with sensible weather measurements, single Doppler weather radar, regional soundings, and operational model sources. The ability of numerical weather prediction models to simulate the SPCZ depends on several factors: the accuracy of the large scale flow upstream of the zone, terrain resolution, grid scale, boundary layer parameterizations of stability, cumulus parameterizations, and microphysics schemes. This dissertation explores several of these issues with the aforementioned observations and with the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model simulations of selected SPCZ events. This dissertation first explains the conceptual models of the flow patterns related to the genesis of the SPCZ in light of other well-documented topographically-generated zones. The study then explores the links between the theoretical models and observations of the SPCZ in several episodes. With this foundation, the dissertation then tests several hypotheses relating to the horizontal and vertical zone structure, topographic sensitivity on the zone structure, and boundary layer evolution of the zone through the use of high resolution nested grid numerical simulations. The SPCZ consists of windward and leeward flow regimes in Idaho which form under low Froude number (stable blocked flow) in a post cold-frontal environment. The SPCZ is a weak baroclinic feature. The formation of the zone is independent of the vertical wind shear in the middle to upper troposphere. With a grid scale of 4 km, the WRF-ARW model adequately reproduces the post cold-frontal environment, windward and leeward convergence zones, relative vertical vorticity belts, and precipitation bands in several SPCZ cases. The vertical structure of the SPCZ reveals upright reflectivity towers with circulations that tilt slightly with height into the colder air aloft. Topographic sensitivity analyses of the SPCZ indicate that the terrain-driven circulations and resulting snow bands are more defined at the finer terrain scales. The ambient horizontal wind shear in the tributary valleys of the Central Mountains creates potential vorticity (PV) banners. The PV banner maintenance and strength are directly tied to the terrain resolution. An environment of convective instability sometimes occurs as a layer of air is lifted along the gentle elevation rise of the eastern Magic Valley and lower plain. An environment of inertial instability forms within the anticyclonic (negative) vorticity belts in the upper plain. Potential symmetric instability (PSI) may be released in a moist environment near the vorticity banners. The planetary boundary layer perturbed by the SPCZ inside the Snake River Plain is characterized by a deeper mixed layer with stronger vertical motions relative to a PBL in a sheltered valley outside the plain. Finally, a 10-year antecedent synoptic climatology of 78 SPCZ events reveals two pattern types: Type N (wet and warm) and Type S (dry and cold). The 40° N parallel divides these two synoptic patterns.

Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

PubMed

Harrison, Matthew T; Tardieu, François; Dong, Zhanshan; Messina, Carlos D; Hammer, Graeme L

2014-03-01

Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for studies examining genetic and physiological crop responses to environmental stresses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Identification of Abnormal System Noise Temperature Patterns in Deep Space Network Antennas Using Neural Network Trained Fuzzy Logic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Thomas; Pham, Timothy; Liao, Jason

2011-01-01

This paper presents the development of a fuzzy logic function trained by an artificial neural network to classify the system noise temperature (SNT) of antennas in the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN). The SNT data were classified into normal, marginal, and abnormal classes. The irregular SNT pattern was further correlated with link margin and weather data. A reasonably good correlation is detected among high SNT, low link margin and the effect of bad weather; however we also saw some unexpected non-correlations which merit further study in the future.

SALINITY AND SODICITY INTERACTIONS OF WEATHERED MINESOILS IN NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTH EASTERN ARIZONA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brent Musslewhite; Song Jin

2006-05-01

Weathering characteristics of minesoils and rooting patterns of key shrub and grass species were evaluated at sites reclaimed for 6 to 14 years from three surface coal mine operations in northwestern New Mexico and northeastern Arizona. Non-weathered minesoils were grouped into 11 classifications based on electrical conductivity (EC) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR). Comparisons of saturated paste extracts, from non-weathered and weathered minesoils show significant (p < 0.05) reductions in SAR levels and increased EC. Weathering increased the apparent stability of saline and sodic minesoils thereby reducing concerns of aggregate slaking and clay particle dispersion. Root density of four-wing saltbushmore » (Atriplex canascens), alkali sacaton (Sporobolus airoides), and Russian wildrye (Psathyrostachys junceus) were nominally affected by increasing EC and SAR levels in minesoil. Results suggest that saline and sodic minesoils can be successfully reclaimed when covered with topsoil and seeded with salt tolerant plant species.« less

A Bayesian hierarchical model with spatial variable selection: the effect of weather on insurance claims

PubMed Central

Scheel, Ida; Ferkingstad, Egil; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Haug, Ola; Hinnerichsen, Mikkel; Meze-Hausken, Elisabeth

2013-01-01

Climate change will affect the insurance industry. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach to explain and predict insurance losses due to weather events at a local geographic scale. The number of weather-related insurance claims is modelled by combining generalized linear models with spatially smoothed variable selection. Using Gibbs sampling and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, this model is fitted on daily weather and insurance data from each of the 319 municipalities which constitute southern and central Norway for the period 1997–2006. Precise out-of-sample predictions validate the model. Our results show interesting regional patterns in the effect of different weather covariates. In addition to being useful for insurance pricing, our model can be used for short-term predictions based on weather forecasts and for long-term predictions based on downscaled climate models. PMID:23396890

Silicon isotopes fractionation in meteoric chemical weathering and hydrothermal alteration systems of volcanic rocks (Mayotte)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basile-Doelsch, Isabelle; Puyraveau, Romain-Arnaud; Guihou, Abel; Haurine, Frederic; Deschamps, Pierre; rad, Setareh; Nehlig, Pierre

2017-04-01

Low temperature chemical weathering fractionates silicon (Si) isotopes while forming secondary silicates. The Si fractionation ranges of high temperature secondary phyllosilicates formed in hydrothermal alteration environments have not been investigated to date. Several parameters, including temperature, reaction rates, pH, ionic concentrations in solution, precipitation/dissolution series or kinetic versus equilibrium regime are not the same in hydrothermal alteration and surface weathering systems and may lead to different fractionation factors. In this work, we analyzed Si isotopes in these two types of alteration conditions in two profiles sampled on the volcanic island of Mayotte. In both profiles, Si-bearing secondary mineral was kaolinite. Both profiles showed 30Si depletion as a function of the degree of alteration but each with a distinct pattern. In the meteoric weathering profile, from the bottom to the top, a gradual decrease of the δ30Si from parent rock (-0.29 ± 0.13 ‰) towards the most weathered product (-2.05 ± 0.13 ‰) was observed. In the hydrothermal alteration profile, in which meteoric weathering was also superimposed at the top of the profile, an abrupt transition of the δ30Si was measured at the interface between parent-rock (-0.21 ± 0.11 ‰) and the altered products, with a minimum value of -3.06 ± 0.16 ‰˙ At the scale of Si-bearing secondary minerals, in the chemical weathering system, a Δ30Sikaol-parentrock of -1.9 ‰ was observed, in agreement with results in the literature. A low temperature kinetic fractionation 30ɛ of -2.29 ‰ was calculated using a simple steady state model. However, an unexpected Δ30Sikaol-parentrock of -2.85 ‰ was measured in the hydrothermal alteration site, pointing to possible mechanisms linked to dissolution/precipitation series and/or to ionic composition of the solution as the main controlling factors of fractionation in hydrothermal conditions. At the scale of the profiles, both δ30Si bulk rocks showed linear correlations with the SiO2:Al2O3 ratios, suggesting an alternative alteration index based on Si isotopic composition.

Divergence in Forest-Type Response to Climate and Weather: Evidence for Regional Links Between Forest-Type Evenness and Net Primary Productivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradford, J.B.

2011-01-01

Climate change is altering long-term climatic conditions and increasing the magnitude of weather fluctuations. Assessing the consequences of these changes for terrestrial ecosystems requires understanding how different vegetation types respond to climate and weather. This study examined 20 years of regional-scale remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) in forests of the northern Lake States to identify how the relationship between NPP and climate or weather differ among forest types, and if NPP patterns are influenced by landscape-scale evenness of forest-type abundance. These results underscore the positive relationship between temperature and NPP. Importantly, these results indicate significant differences among broadly defined forest types in response to both climate and weather. Essentially all weather variables that were strongly related to annual NPP displayed significant differences among forest types, suggesting complementarity in response to environmental fluctuations. In addition, this study found that forest-type evenness (within 8 ?? 8 km2 areas) is positively related to long-term NPP mean and negatively related to NPP variability, suggesting that NPP in pixels with greater forest-type evenness is both higher and more stable through time. This is landscape- to subcontinental-scale evidence of a relationship between primary productivity and one measure of biological diversity. These results imply that anthropogenic or natural processes that influence the proportional abundance of forest types within landscapes may influence long-term productivity patterns. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

Integrating K-means Clustering with Kernel Density Estimation for the Development of a Conditional Weather Generation Downscaling Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Ho, C.; Chang, L.

2011-12-01

In previous decades, the climate change caused by global warming increases the occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events. Water supply shortages caused by extreme events create great challenges for water resource management. To evaluate future climate variations, general circulation models (GCMs) are the most wildly known tools which shows possible weather conditions under pre-defined CO2 emission scenarios announced by IPCC. Because the study area of GCMs is the entire earth, the grid sizes of GCMs are much larger than the basin scale. To overcome the gap, a statistic downscaling technique can transform the regional scale weather factors into basin scale precipitations. The statistic downscaling technique can be divided into three categories include transfer function, weather generator and weather type. The first two categories describe the relationships between the weather factors and precipitations respectively based on deterministic algorithms, such as linear or nonlinear regression and ANN, and stochastic approaches, such as Markov chain theory and statistical distributions. In the weather type, the method has ability to cluster weather factors, which are high dimensional and continuous variables, into weather types, which are limited number of discrete states. In this study, the proposed downscaling model integrates the weather type, using the K-means clustering algorithm, and the weather generator, using the kernel density estimation. The study area is Shihmen basin in northern of Taiwan. In this study, the research process contains two steps, a calibration step and a synthesis step. Three sub-steps were used in the calibration step. First, weather factors, such as pressures, humidities and wind speeds, obtained from NCEP and the precipitations observed from rainfall stations were collected for downscaling. Second, the K-means clustering grouped the weather factors into four weather types. Third, the Markov chain transition matrixes and the conditional probability density function (PDF) of precipitations approximated by the kernel density estimation are calculated respectively for each weather types. In the synthesis step, 100 patterns of synthesis data are generated. First, the weather type of the n-th day are determined by the results of K-means clustering. The associated transition matrix and PDF of the weather type were also determined for the usage of the next sub-step in the synthesis process. Second, the precipitation condition, dry or wet, can be synthesized basing on the transition matrix. If the synthesized condition is dry, the quantity of precipitation is zero; otherwise, the quantity should be further determined in the third sub-step. Third, the quantity of the synthesized precipitation is assigned as the random variable of the PDF defined above. The synthesis efficiency compares the gap of the monthly mean curves and monthly standard deviation curves between the historical precipitation data and the 100 patterns of synthesis data.

Using fire-weather forecasts and local weather observations in predicting burning index for individual fire-danger stations.

Treesearch

Owen P. Cramer

1958-01-01

Any agency engaged in forest-fire control needs accurate weather forecasts and systematic procedures for making the best use of predicted and reported weather information. This study explores the practicability of using several tabular and graphical aids for converting area forecasts and local observations of relative humidity and wind speed into predicted values for...

Effect of weather on temporal pain patterns in patients with temporomandibular disorders and migraine.

PubMed

Cioffi, I; Farella, M; Chiodini, P; Ammendola, L; Capuozzo, R; Klain, C; Vollaro, S; Michelotti, A

2017-05-01

Patients with masticatory muscle pain and migraine typically report that the intensity of pain fluctuates over time and is affected by weather changes. Weather variables, such as ambient temperature and humidity, may vary significantly depending on whether the individual is outdoor or indoor. It is, therefore, important to assess these variables at the individual level using portable monitors, during everyday life. This study aimed to determine and compare the temporal patterns of pain in individuals affected with facial and head pain and to investigate its relation with weather changes. Eleven patients (27·3 ± 7·4 years) with chronic masticatory muscle pain (MP) and twenty (33·1 ± 8·7 years) with migraine headache (MH) were asked to report their current pain level on a visual analogue scale (VAS) every hour over fourteen consecutive days. The VAS scores were collected using portable data-loggers, which were also used to record temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity. VAS scores varied markedly over time in both groups. Pain VAS scores fluctuate less in the MP group than in the MH group, but their mean, minimum and maximum values were higher than those of migraine patients (all P < 0·05). Pain scores <2 cm were more common in the MH than in the MP group (P < 0·001). Perceived intensity of pain was negatively associated with atmospheric pressure in the MP group and positively associated with temperature and atmospheric in the MH group. Our results reveal that patients with masticatory muscle pain and patients with migraine present typical temporal pain patterns that are influenced in a different way by weather changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forecast and virtual weather driven plant disease risk modeling system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We describe a system in use and development that leverages public weather station data, several spatialized weather forecast types, leaf wetness estimation, generic plant disease models, and online statistical evaluation. Convergent technological developments in all these areas allow, with funding f...

Responses of Roadside Soil Cation Pools to Vehicular Emission Deposition in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, R.; Bain, D. J.; Jenerette, D.; Clarke, L. W.; Wilson, K.

2013-12-01

Roadside soils are heavily loaded with NO3- due to vehicular emissions. This deposition likely acidifies these soils, potentially mobilizing cationic species from soil exchange sites. Acidification driven mobilization is well documented in forest soils, but poorly understood in roadside soils. Metal concentrations in park and garden soils collected from Southern California were examined across gradients of soil chemistry, road network density, climate, and geology to examine cation mobilization effects. In our samples, soil pH is not clearly related to distance from the roadside or underlying geology. However, the depletion of several elements (Al, K) is clearly observed in near-road environments. These depletion trends occur despite contrary trends, including increased soil surface areas and soil organic matter in near-road environments. Additionally, inputs from the weathering of road building materials appear to affect soil chemistry. For example, soil Ca patterns remain relatively consistent relative to roads, suggesting Ca bearing weathering products replenish soil Ca pools in near-road areas. Simple mixing models constructed using elemental ratios are consistent with road material Ca source contributions. Observed near-road patterns in soil chemistry likely influence local ecological function, shifting plant communities and soil functions. Clear understanding of these shifts is essential to the effective use of green infrastructure and other strategies utilized to control road-sourced nutrients. This analytical framework can be applied globally as road networks continue to expand and affect larger ecosystems.

Climatic fluctuations and malaria transmission dynamics, prior to elimination, in Guna Yala, República de Panamá.

PubMed

Hurtado, Lisbeth Amarilis; Calzada, José E; Rigg, Chystrie A; Castillo, Milagros; Chaves, Luis Fernando

2018-02-20

Malaria has historically been entrenched in indigenous populations of the República de Panamá. This scenario occurs despite the fact that successful methods for malaria elimination were developed during the creation of the Panamá Canal. Today, most malaria cases in the República de Panamá affect the Gunas, an indigenous group, which mainly live in autonomous regions of eastern Panamá. Over recent decades several malaria outbreaks have affected the Gunas, and one hypothesis is that such outbreaks could have been exacerbated by climate change, especially by anomalous weather patterns driven by the EL Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monthly malaria cases in Guna Yala (1998-2016) were autocorrelated up to 2 months of lag, likely reflecting parasite transmission cycles between humans and mosquitoes, and cyclically for periods of 4 months that might reflect relapses of Plasmodium vivax, the dominant malaria parasite transmitted in Panamá. Moreover, malaria case number was positively associated (P < 0.05) with rainfall (7 months of lag), and negatively with the El Niño 4 index (15 months of lag) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI (8 months of lag), the sign and magnitude of these associations likely related to the impacts of weather patterns and vegetation on the ecology of Anopheles albimanus, the main malaria vector in Guna Yala. Interannual cycles, of approximately 4-year periods, in monthly malaria case numbers were associated with the El Niño 4 index, a climatic index associated with weather and vegetation dynamics in Guna Yala at seasonal and interannual time scales. The results showed that ENSO, rainfall and NDVI were associated with the number of malaria cases in Guna Yala during the study period. These results highlight the vulnerability of Guna populations to malaria, an infection sensitive to climate change, and call for further studies about weather impacts on malaria vector ecology, as well as the association of malaria vectors with Gunas paying attention to their socio-economic conditions of poverty and cultural differences as an ethnic minority.

Controls on carbon storage and weathering in volcanic soils across a high-elevation climate gradient on Mauna Kea, Hawaii.

PubMed

Kramer, Marc G; Chadwick, Oliver A

2016-09-01

Volcanic ash soils retain the largest and most persistent soil carbon pools of any ecosystem. However, the mechanisms governing soil carbon accumulation and weathering during initial phases of ecosystem development are not well understood. We examined soil organic matter dynamics and soil development across a high-altitude (3,560-3,030 m) 20-kyr climate gradient on Mauna Kea in Hawaii. Four elevation sites were selected (~250-500 mm rainfall), which range from sparsely vegetated to sites that contain a mix of shrubs and grasses. At each site, two or three pits were dug and major diagnostic horizons down to bedrock (intact lava) were sampled. Soils were analyzed for particle size, organic C and N, soil pH, exchangeable cations, base saturation, NaF pH, phosphorous sorption, and major elements. Mass loss and pedogenic metal accumulation (hydroxlamine Fe, Al, and Si extractions) were used to measure extent of weathering, leaching, changes in soil mineralogy and carbon accumulation. Reactive-phase (SRO) minerals show a general trend of increasing abundance with increasing rainfall. However carbon accumulation patterns across the climate gradient are largely decoupled from these trends. The results suggest that after 20 kyr, pedogenic processes have altered the nature and composition of the volcanic ash such that it is capable of retaining soil C even where organic acid influences from plant material and leaching from rainfall are severely limited. Carbon storage comparisons with lower-elevation soils on Mauna Kea and other moist mesic (2,500 mm rainfall) sites on Hawaii suggest that these soils have reached only between 1% and 15% of their capacity to retain carbon. Our results suggest that, after 20 kyr in low rainfall and a cold climate, weathering was decoupled from soil carbon accumulation patterns and the associated influence of vegetation on soil development. Overall, we conclude that the rate of carbon supply to the subsoil (driven by coupling of rainfall above ground plant production) is a governing factor of forms and amount of soil organic matter accumulation, while soil mineralogy remained relatively uniform. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark

2005-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit developed a forecast tool that provides an assessment of the likelihood of local convective severe weather for the day in order to enhance protection of personnel and material assets of the 45th Space Wing Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

Uncertainty Comparison of Visual Sensing in Adverse Weather Conditions†

PubMed Central

Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Chen, Lun-Chi; Tseng, Chien-Hao; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

2016-01-01

This paper focuses on flood-region detection using monitoring images. However, adverse weather affects the outcome of image segmentation methods. In this paper, we present an experimental comparison of an outdoor visual sensing system using region-growing methods with two different growing rules—namely, GrowCut and RegGro. For each growing rule, several tests on adverse weather and lens-stained scenes were performed, taking into account and analyzing different weather conditions with the outdoor visual sensing system. The influence of several weather conditions was analyzed, highlighting their effect on the outdoor visual sensing system with different growing rules. Furthermore, experimental errors and uncertainties obtained with the growing rules were compared. The segmentation accuracy of flood regions yielded by the GrowCut, RegGro, and hybrid methods was 75%, 85%, and 87.7%, respectively. PMID:27447642

76 FR 52229 - Establishment of Area Navigation Route Q-37; Texas

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-22

... route around potentially constrained airspace during convective weather events in west Texas. DATES... around potentially constrained airspace during convective weather events in west Texas. Additionally, the new route is being integrated into the existing severe weather national playbook routes to Houston, TX...

Observation of the degradation of three types of plastic pellets exposed to UV irradiation in three different environments.

PubMed

Cai, Liqi; Wang, Jundong; Peng, Jinping; Wu, Ziqing; Tan, Xiangling

2018-07-01

Plastic debris represents one of the most prevalent and persistent pollution problems in the marine environment. In particular, microplastics that are mainly degraded from larger plastic debris have become a growing environmental concern. However, studies on the degradation of plastics in the aquatic environment that hydrobios reside in have been limited, while several studies regarding the degradation of plastics have been conducted under outdoor or accelerated weathering conditions. Thus, observation of the degradation of three types of virgin plastic pellets exposed to UV irradiation in three different environments (i.e., simulated seawater, ultrapure water, and a waterless (air) condition) was carried out. Data on the changes in physical and chemical properties were collected. The FTIR spectra showed that hydroxyl groups and carbonyl groups developed in three types of weathered plastic pellets under the air and ultrapure water environmental conditions after 3months of UV irradiation, while only carbonyl groups were found in plastic pellets in the simulated seawater environment. In contrast, the Raman spectra showed no significant changes in the weathered plastic pellets, but there were different intensities of characteristic peaks after exposure to UV irradiation. In addition, SEM images illustrated that granular oxidation, cracks and flakes were common patterns during degradation, and the plastic pellets in the three different environments experienced different levels of chemical weathering. We suggest that further studies on the degradation processes of plastic debris are needed to predict the fate of plastic debris in the environment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of ignition location models on the burn patterns of simulated wildfires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Syphard, A.D.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Radeloff, V.C.

2011-01-01

Fire simulation studies that use models such as FARSITE often assume that ignition locations are distributed randomly, because spatially explicit information about actual ignition locations are difficult to obtain. However, many studies show that the spatial distribution of ignition locations, whether human-caused or natural, is non-random. Thus, predictions from fire simulations based on random ignitions may be unrealistic. However, the extent to which the assumption of ignition location affects the predictions of fire simulation models has never been systematically explored. Our goal was to assess the difference in fire simulations that are based on random versus non-random ignition location patterns. We conducted four sets of 6000 FARSITE simulations for the Santa Monica Mountains in California to quantify the influence of random and non-random ignition locations and normal and extreme weather conditions on fire size distributions and spatial patterns of burn probability. Under extreme weather conditions, fires were significantly larger for non-random ignitions compared to random ignitions (mean area of 344.5 ha and 230.1 ha, respectively), but burn probability maps were highly correlated (r = 0.83). Under normal weather, random ignitions produced significantly larger fires than non-random ignitions (17.5 ha and 13.3 ha, respectively), and the spatial correlations between burn probability maps were not high (r = 0.54), though the difference in the average burn probability was small. The results of the study suggest that the location of ignitions used in fire simulation models may substantially influence the spatial predictions of fire spread patterns. However, the spatial bias introduced by using a random ignition location model may be minimized if the fire simulations are conducted under extreme weather conditions when fire spread is greatest. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Identifying Hail Signatures in Satellite Imagery from the 9-10 August 2011 Severe Weather Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dryden, Rachel L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Cole, Tony A.; Bell, Jordan

2014-01-01

Severe thunderstorms can produce large hail that causes property damage, livestock fatalities, and crop failure. However, detailed storm surveys of hail damage conducted by the National Weather Service (NWS) are not required. Current gaps also exist between Storm Prediction Center (SPC) hail damage estimates and crop-insurance payouts. NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites can be used to support NWS damage assessments, particularly to crops during the growing season. The two-day severe weather event across western Nebraska and central Kansas during 9-10 August 2011 offers a case study for investigating hail damage signatures by examining changes in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from MODIS imagery. By analyzing hail damage swaths in satellite imagery, potential economic losses due to crop damage can be quantified and further improve the estimation of weather impacts on agriculture without significantly increasing manpower requirements.

Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation Intensities Associated with Tropical Cyclones and Disturbances in Indo-China Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revel, M.; Utsumi, N.; Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

Summer Monsoon precipitation provide support for the livelihood of the people of Southeast Asia where the population density is very high. Monsoon precipitation shows high variation in seasonal and yearly time scales affecting daily life of the people in the regions such Indo-China peninsula where most of the countries depend on agricultural economy. Predictability of seasonal extreme events such as flooding and droughts by different climatic conditions will enhance the ability to mitigate the risk of natural disasters in Indo-China peninsula. In addition lower tropospheric (850hPa) wind flow pattern is very useful in understanding the seasonal variability of Southeastern Asian Summer Monsoon. Furthermore summer monsoon in the Indo-China peninsula is strongly influenced by the local wind-terrain-precipitation interaction. Recently a set of Monsoon Indices has been developed by several researches, Indo China Monsoon Indices (ICMIs) as a representation of lower tropospheric wind flow patterns around Southeast Asian. On the other hand different precipitation providing weather systems vary according to the global position and local weather system. Responses of ICMIs to different precipitation providing weather systems may vary in temporal and spatial scales. Hence the seasonal responses of differentiated precipitation with ICMIs in Indo-China peninsula are being investigated. Objective detection methods are been adopted in order to identify the locations of tropical cyclones (TCs), and westward propagating disturbances (WDs) using a Japanese 25-year ReAnalysis data and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily data is differentiated into TCs, and WDs related precipitation. TCs contribute highly over the east coast of Indo China peninsula where WDs contributed all over land area of Indo-China peninsula but more towards Bay of Bengal. Correlations and regressions suggest that the indices which is calculated using the wind patterns, situated west of Indo-China peninsula tend to increase the moisture production to precipitation which is produced by seasonal winds and local convections. The increment of indices in the east of the peninsula tends withdraw the moisture of TCs and WDs related precipitation in Indo-China peninsula, as those originate from east of the peninsula.

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array: Recent Severe Storm Observations and Future Prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.; Koshak, W.; Bailey, J.; Hall, J.; McCaul, E.; Buechler, D.; Darden, C.; Burks, J.

2004-01-01

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array became operational in November 2001 as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technology into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather, principally within nearby National Weather Service forecast offices. Since the installation of the LMA, it has measured the total lightning activity of a large number of severe weather events, including three supercell tornado outbreaks, two supercell hailstorm events, and numerous microburst-producing storms and ordinary non-severe thunderstorms. The key components of evolving storm morphology examined are the time rate-of-change (temporal trending) of storm convective and precipitation characteristics that can be diagnosed in real-time using NEXRAD WSR-88D Doppler radar (echo growth and decay, precipitation structures and velocity features, outflow boundaries), LMA (total lightning flash rate and its trend) and National Lightning Detection Network (cloud-to- ground lightning, its polarity and trends). For example, in a transitional season supercell tornado outbreak, peak total flash rates for typical supercells in Tennessee reached 70-100/min, and increases in the total flash rate occurred during storm intensification as much as 20-25 min prior to at least some of the tornadoes. The most intense total flash rate measured during this outbreak (over 800 flashes/min) occurred in a storm in Alabama. In the case of a severe summertime pulse thunderstorm in North Alabama, the peak total flash rate reached 300/min, with a strong increase in total lightning evident some 9 min before damaging winds were observed at the surface. In this paper we provide a sampling of LMA observations and products during severe weather events to illustrate the capability of the system, and discuss the prospects for improving the short-term forecasting of convective weather using total lightning data.

National Space Weather Program Advances on Several Fronts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunzelman, Mark; Babcock, Michael

2008-10-01

The National Space Weather Program (NSWP; http://www.nswp.gov) is a U.S. federal government interagency initiative through the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology that was created to speed the improvement of space weather services for the nation. The Committee for Space Weather (CSW) under the NSWP has continued to advance the program on a number of fronts over the past 12 months.

Creating a Realistic Weather Environment for Motion-Based Piloted Flight Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniels, Taumi S.; Schaffner, Philip R.; Evans, Emory T.; Neece, Robert T.; Young, Steve D.

2012-01-01

A flight simulation environment is being enhanced to facilitate experiments that evaluate research prototypes of advanced onboard weather radar, hazard/integrity monitoring (HIM), and integrated alerting and notification (IAN) concepts in adverse weather conditions. The simulation environment uses weather data based on real weather events to support operational scenarios in a terminal area. A simulated atmospheric environment was realized by using numerical weather data sets. These were produced from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model hosted and run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). To align with the planned flight simulation experiment requirements, several HRRR data sets were acquired courtesy of NOAA. These data sets coincided with severe weather events at the Memphis International Airport (MEM) in Memphis, TN. In addition, representative flight tracks for approaches and departures at MEM were generated and used to develop and test simulations of (1) what onboard sensors such as the weather radar would observe; (2) what datalinks of weather information would provide; and (3) what atmospheric conditions the aircraft would experience (e.g. turbulence, winds, and icing). The simulation includes a weather radar display that provides weather and turbulence modes, derived from the modeled weather along the flight track. The radar capabilities and the pilots controls simulate current-generation commercial weather radar systems. Appropriate data-linked weather advisories (e.g., SIGMET) were derived from the HRRR weather models and provided to the pilot consistent with NextGen concepts of use for Aeronautical Information Service (AIS) and Meteorological (MET) data link products. The net result of this simulation development was the creation of an environment that supports investigations of new flight deck information systems, methods for incorporation of better weather information, and pilot interface and operational improvements for better aviation safety. This research is part of a larger effort at NASA to study the impact of the growing complexity of operations, information, and systems on crew decision-making and response effectiveness; and then to recommend methods for improving future designs.

Utilization of satellite imagery by in-flight aircraft. [for weather information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luers, J. K.

1976-01-01

Present and future utilization of satellite weather data by commercial aircraft while in flight was assessed. Weather information of interest to aviation that is available or will become available with future geostationary satellites includes the following: severe weather areas, jet stream location, weather observation at destination airport, fog areas, and vertical temperature profiles. Utilization of this information by in-flight aircraft is especially beneficial for flights over the oceans or over remote land areas where surface-based observations and communications are sparse and inadequate.

The more extreme nature of North American monsoon precipitation in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Luong, T. M.; Castro, C. L.; Lahmers, T. M.; Adams, D. K.; Ochoa-Moya, C.

2017-12-01

Most severe weather in the Southwestern United States occurs during the North American monsoon. This research examines how monsoon extreme weather events will change with respect to occurrence and intensity. A new technique to severe weather event projection has been developed, using convective perimitting regional atmospheric modeling of days with highest instabilty and atmospheric moisture. The guiding principle is to use a weather forecast based approach to climate change project, with a modeling paradigm in which organized convective structures and their behavior are explicitly physically represented in the simulation design. Of particular interest is the simulation of severe weather events caused by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which account for a greater proportion of monsoon rainfall downwind of the Mogollon Rim in Arizona, in the central and southwestern portions of the state. The convective-permitting model simulations are performed for identified severe weather event days for both historical and future climate projections, similar to an operational weather forecast. There have been significant long-term changes in atmospheric thermodynamic and dynamic conditions that have occurred over the past sixty years. Monsoon thunderstorms are tending to be more 'thermodynamically dominated' with less tendency to organize and propagate. Though there are tending to be a fewer number of strong, organized MCS-type convective events during the monsoon, when they do occur their associated precipitation is now tending to be more intense. The area of central and southwestern Arizona, corresponding to the area of the state most impacted by MCSs during the monsoon, appears to be a local hot spot where precipitation and downdraft winds are becoming more intense. These types of changes are very consistent with the historical observed precipitation data and model projections of historical and future climate, from dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models.

Short Term Exogenic Climate Change Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krahenbuhl, Daniel

Several short term exogenic forcings affecting Earth's climate are but recently identified. Lunar nutation periodicity has implications for numerical meteorological prediction. Abrupt shifts in solar wind bulk velocity, particle density, and polarity exhibit correlation with terrestrial hemispheric vorticity changes, cyclonic strengthening and the intensification of baroclinic disturbances. Galactic Cosmic ray induced tropospheric ionization modifies cloud microphysics, and modulates the global electric circuit. This dissertation is constructed around three research questions: (1): What are the biweekly declination effects of lunar gravitation upon the troposphere? (2): How do United States severe weather reports correlate with heliospheric current sheet crossings? and (3): How does cloud cover spatially and temporally vary with galactic cosmic rays? Study 1 findings show spatial consistency concerning lunar declination extremes upon Rossby longwaves. Due to the influence of Rossby longwaves on synoptic scale circulation, our results could theoretically extend numerical meteorological forecasting. Study 2 results indicate a preference for violent tornadoes to occur prior to a HCS crossing. Violent tornadoes (EF3+) are 10% more probable to occur near, and 4% less probable immediately after a HCS crossing. The distribution of hail and damaging wind reports do not mirror this pattern. Polarity is critical for the effect. Study 3 results confirm anticorrelation between solar flux and low-level marine-layer cloud cover, but indicate substantial regional variability between cloud cover altitude and GCRs. Ultimately, this dissertation serves to extend short term meteorological forecasting, enhance climatological modeling and through analysis of severe violent weather and heliospheric events, protect property and save lives.

Wacky Weather

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

2013-01-01

What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

Using Mesoscale Weather Model Output as Boundary Conditions for Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulations and Wind-Plant Aerodynamic Simulations (Presentation)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Churchfield, M. J.; Michalakes, J.; Vanderwende, B.

Wind plant aerodynamics are directly affected by the microscale weather, which is directly influenced by the mesoscale weather. Microscale weather refers to processes that occur within the atmospheric boundary layer with the largest scales being a few hundred meters to a few kilometers depending on the atmospheric stability of the boundary layer. Mesoscale weather refers to large weather patterns, such as weather fronts, with the largest scales being hundreds of kilometers wide. Sometimes microscale simulations that capture mesoscale-driven variations (changes in wind speed and direction over time or across the spatial extent of a wind plant) are important in windmore » plant analysis. In this paper, we present our preliminary work in coupling a mesoscale weather model with a microscale atmospheric large-eddy simulation model. The coupling is one-way beginning with the weather model and ending with a computational fluid dynamics solver using the weather model in coarse large-eddy simulation mode as an intermediary. We simulate one hour of daytime moderately convective microscale development driven by the mesoscale data, which are applied as initial and boundary conditions to the microscale domain, at a site in Iowa. We analyze the time and distance necessary for the smallest resolvable microscales to develop.« less

Capturing spatiotemporal variation in wildfires for improving postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessments: Chapter 20

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haas, Jessica R.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Tillery, Anne C.; Scott, Joe H.

2017-01-01

Wildfires can increase the frequency and magnitude of catastrophic debris flows. Integrated, proactive natural hazard assessment would therefore characterize landscapes based on the potential for the occurrence and interactions of wildfires and postwildfire debris flows. This chapter presents a new modeling effort that can quantify the variability surrounding a key input to postwildfire debris-flow modeling, the amount of watershed burned at moderate to high severity, in a prewildfire context. The use of stochastic wildfire simulation captures variability surrounding the timing and location of ignitions, fire weather patterns, and ultimately the spatial patterns of watershed area burned. Model results provide for enhanced estimates of postwildfire debris-flow hazard in a prewildfire context, and multiple hazard metrics are generated to characterize and contrast hazards across watersheds. Results can guide mitigation efforts by allowing planners to identify which factors may be contributing the most to the hazard rankings of watersheds.

Spatial variation in extreme winds predicts large wildfire locations in chaparral ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moritz, Max A.; Moody, Tadashi J.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Hughes, Mimi; Hall, Alex

2010-02-01

Fire plays a crucial role in many ecosystems, and a better understanding of different controls on fire activity is needed. Here we analyze spatial variation in fire danger during episodic wind events in coastal southern California, a densely populated Mediterranean-climate region. By reconstructing almost a decade of fire weather patterns through detailed simulations of Santa Ana winds, we produced the first high-resolution map of where these hot, dry winds are consistently most severe and which areas are relatively sheltered. We also analyzed over half a century of mapped fire history in chaparral ecosystems of the region, finding that our models successfully predict where the largest wildfires are most likely to occur. There is a surprising lack of information about extreme wind patterns worldwide, and more quantitative analyses of their spatial variation will be important for effective fire management and sustainable long-term urban development on fire-prone landscapes.

The use of ERTS-1 satellite data in Great Lakes mesometeorological studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyons, W. A. (Principal Investigator)

1972-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. In the original proposal, it was hoped that ERTS could, with its extremely high resolution and multispectral capability, detect many meteorological phenomena occurring at the low end of the mesoscale motion spectrum (1 - 100 km). This included convective cloud phenomena, internal wave patterns, air pollution, snow squalls, etc. For meteorologists, ERTS-1 has more than lived up to initial hopes. First-look inspection of images has produced a large number of truly remarkable finds. Some of the most significant are: (1) Images of Lake Ontario during late summer have revealed several extremely good examples of lake breeze frontal cloud patterns. (2) Detection of suspended particulates from Chicago-Gary industrial complex in the 50,000 to 150,000 tons/year category. (3) Inadvertant weather modification due to anthropogenic condensation and ice nuclei from urban areas.

Investigation of the effect of weather conditions on solar radiation in Brunei Darussalam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yazdani, M. G.; Salam, M. A.; Rahman, Q. M.

2016-11-01

The amount of solar radiation received on the earth's surface is known to be highly influenced by the weather conditions and the geography of a particular area. This paper presents some results of an investigation that was carried out to find the effects of weather patterns on the solar radiation in Brunei Darussalam, a small country that experiences equatorial climate due to its geographical location. Weather data were collected at a suitable location in the University Brunei Darussalam (UBD) and were compared with the available data provided by the Brunei Darussalam Meteorological Services (BDMS). It has been found that the solar radiation is directly proportional to the atmospheric temperature while it is inversely proportional to the relative humidity. It has also been found that wind speed has little influence on solar radiation. Functional relationships between the solar radiation and the atmospheric temperature, and between the solar radiation and the relative humidity have also been developed from the BDMS weather data. Finally, an artificial neural network (ANN) model has been developed for training and testing the solar radiation data with the inputs of temperature and relative humidity, and a coefficient of determination of around 99% was achieved. This set of data containing all the aforementioned results may serve as a guideline on the solar radiation pattern in the geographical areas around the equator.

Effects of television weather broadcasters on viewers during severe weather: To be or not to be on-screen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, Amanda Marie

An association was tested between the presence of a television weather broadcaster on-screen and viewers' likelihood to seek shelter, measured via risk perception and preventative behavior. Social networking websites were used to recruit respondents. Four clips of archived severe weather videos, one pair (on-screen and off-screen broadcaster) using the reflectivity product and another pair (on-screen and off-screen broadcaster) using velocity product, were presented to participants. Viewers' trust and weather salience were also quantified for additional interactions. A relationship between viewers' risk perception (preflectivity = 0.821, pvelocity = 0.625) and preventative behavior (preflectivity = 0.217, p velocity = 0.236) and the presence of the broadcaster on-screen was not found. The reflectivity product was associated with higher risk perception and preventative behavior scores than the velocity product (prp = 0.000, ppb = 0.000).

Using Predictive Analytics to Predict Power Outages from Severe Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanik, D. W.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Frediani, M. E.; Astitha, M.

2015-12-01

The distribution of reliable power is essential to businesses, public services, and our daily lives. With the growing abundance of data being collected and created by industry (i.e. outage data), government agencies (i.e. land cover), and academia (i.e. weather forecasts), we can begin to tackle problems that previously seemed too complex to solve. In this session, we will present newly developed tools to aid decision-support challenges at electric distribution utilities that must mitigate, prepare for, respond to and recover from severe weather. We will show a performance evaluation of outage predictive models built for Eversource Energy (formerly Connecticut Light & Power) for storms of all types (i.e. blizzards, thunderstorms and hurricanes) and magnitudes (from 20 to >15,000 outages). High resolution weather simulations (simulated with the Weather and Research Forecast Model) were joined with utility outage data to calibrate four types of models: a decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), boosted gradient tree (BT) and an ensemble (ENS) decision tree regression that combined predictions from DT, RF and BT. The study shows that the ENS model forced with weather, infrastructure and land cover data was superior to the other models we evaluated, especially in terms of predicting the spatial distribution of outages. This research has the potential to be used for other critical infrastructure systems (such as telecommunications, drinking water and gas distribution networks), and can be readily expanded to the entire New England region to facilitate better planning and coordination among decision-makers when severe weather strikes.

Influence of synoptic weather patterns on solar irradiance variability in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parding, Kajsa; Hinkelman, Laura; Liepert, Beate; Ackerman, Thomas; Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Asle Olseth, Jan

2014-05-01

Solar radiation is important for many aspects of existence on Earth, including the biosphere, the hydrological cycle, and creatures living on the planet. Previous studies have reported decadal trends in observational records of surface shortwave (SW) irradiance around the world, too strong to be caused by varying solar output. These observed decadal trends have been dubbed "solar dimming and brightening" and are believed to be related to changes in atmospheric aerosols and cloud cover. Because the observed solar variability coincides with qualitative air pollution histories, the dimming and brightening have become almost synonymous with shortwave attenuation by anthropogenic aerosols. However, there are indications that atmospheric circulation patterns have influenced the dimming and brightening in some regions, e.g., Alaska and Scandinavia. In this work, we focus on the role of atmospheric circulation patterns in modifying shortwave irradiance. An examination of European SW irradiance data from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) shows that while there are periods of predominantly decreasing (~1970-1985) and increasing (~1985-2007) SW irradiance, the changes are not spatially uniform within Europe and in a majority of locations not statistically significant. To establish a connection between weather patterns and sunshine, regression models of SW irradiance are fitted using a daily classification of European weather called Grosswetterlagen (GWL). The GWL reconstructions of shortwave irradiance represent the part of the solar variability that is related to large scale weather patterns, which should be effectively separated from the influence of varying anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The correlation (R) between observed and reconstruced SW irradiance is between 0.31 and 0.75, depending on station and season, all statistically significant (p<0.05, estimated with a bootstrap test). In central and eastern parts of Europe, the observed decadal SW variability is poorly represented by the GWL models, but in northern Europe, the GWL model recreates observed decadal solar variability well. This finding suggests that natural and/or anthropogenic variations in circulation patterns have influenced solar dimming and brightening to a higher degree in the north than in the rest of Europe.

Comparison of animated jet stream visualizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocke, Thomas; Hoffmann, Peter

2016-04-01

The visualization of 3D atmospheric phenomena in space and time is still a challenging problem. In particular, multiple solutions of animated jet stream visualizations have been produced in recent years, which were designed to visually analyze and communicate the jet and related impacts on weather circulation patterns and extreme weather events. This PICO integrates popular and new jet animation solutions and inter-compares them. The applied techniques (e.g. stream lines or line integral convolution) and parametrizations (color mapping, line lengths) are discussed with respect to visualization quality criteria and their suitability for certain visualization tasks (e.g. jet patterns and jet anomaly analysis, communicating its relevance for climate change).

Evaluation of cropping pattern in rainfed areas based on studies of pranata mangsa and weather dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaki, M. K.; Furi, N. T.; Syamsiyah, Jauhari; Sumani

2018-03-01

Weather dynamics such as the fifth time of the rainy season and drought are becoming more frequent. These conditions pose a significant impact on the strategies of cultivation such as cropping pattern and crop yields, especially in rainfed areas. One of the steps that can be taken is to return to local wisdom, such as pranata mangsa. This study aimed at analyzing the relationship of the variability of precipitation in rainfed areas with pranata mangsa and then to evaluate cropping patterns based on the result of the analysis. The study was conducted in rainfed areas of the District of Jumantono, Karanganyar Regency; and District of Teras and District of Ampel, Boyolali Regency in June until December 2014. The research method is a descriptive exploratory survey with purposive sampling based on moderate altitude (200-700 masl). The types of data that are used are primary and secondary. Data analysis was used correlation test. The results showed that precipitation in rainfed areas has a close relationship with paranata mangsa. These results explain that pranata mangsa still relevant to be used even though it has happened weather dynamics.

CO2 Jets and Wind Patterns on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatcher, Chase; Aye, K.-Michael; Portyankina, Ganna

2017-10-01

In Martian winters, the poles get covered by a layer of transparent CO2 ice. In spring, sunlight causes substrate under the ice to heat up which sublimates CO2 under the ice. The accumulating gas eventually causes the ice above it to rupture and the CO2 and substrate mixture spews out like a geyser and settles back down on the surface. The shape, size, and alignment of the deposits on the surface as viewed by the HiRISE camera are related to physical processes like sublimation, weather, and wind on Mars. The jet deposits are identified by citizen scientists on a website called Planet Four. Users are shown sections of HiRISE images and asked to mark different surface features with different tools. The markings are averaged, filtered, and sorted to ensure that the data accurately represents the images. By analyzing trends in the change of different characteristics of these surface features over time, we conclude that different regions on Mars have different sublimation processes and different wind patterns. We also conclude that wind and weather patterns generally repeat from year to year, and that sediment deposits affect local weather as well.

A multi-site stochastic weather generator of daily precipitation and temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stochastic weather generators are used to generate time series of climate variables that have statistical properties similar to those of observed data. Most stochastic weather generators work for a single site, and can only generate climate data at a single point, or independent time series at sever...

7 CFR 1945.20 - Making EM loans available.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... weather condition or natural phenomenon has substantially affected farmers, causing qualifying severe... § 1945.6(c)(3)(iii) on the basis of the same unusual and adverse weather condition or natural phenomenon... chapter. (2) When a series of unusual and adverse weather conditions or natural phenomena occur in a...

Long-term variability of the thunderstorm and hail potential in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohr, Susanna; Kunz, Michael; Speidel, Johannes; Piper, David

2016-04-01

Severe thunderstorms and associated hazardous weather events such as hail frequently cause considerable damage to buildings, crops, and automobiles, resulting in large monetary costs in many parts of Europe and the world. To relate single extreme hail events to the historic context and to estimate their return periods and possible trends related to climate change, long-term statistics of hail events are required. Due to the local-scale nature of hail and a lack of suitable observation systems, however, hailstorms are not captured reliably and comprehensively for a long period of time. In view of this fact, different proxies (indirect climate data) obtained from sounding stations and regional climate models can be used to infer the probability and intensity of thunderstorms or hailstorms. In contrast to direct observational data, such proxies are available homogeneously over a long time period. The aim of the study is to investigate the potential for severe thunderstorms and their changes over past decades. Statistical analyses of sounding data show that the convective potential over the past 20 - 30 years has significantly increased over large parts of Central Europe, making severe thunderstorms more likely. A similar picture results from analyses of weather types that are most likely associated with damaging hailstorms. These weather patterns have increased, even if only slightly but nevertheless statistically significantly, in the time period from 1971 to 2000. To improve the diagnostics of hail events in regional climate models, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. The model is based on a combination of appropriate hail-relevant meteorological parameters. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index (PHI). Applied to a high-resolved reanalysis run for Europe driven by NCEP/NCAR1, long-term changes of the PHI for 60 years (1951-2010) show large annual and multiannual variability. The trends are mostly positive in the western parts and negative to the east. However, due to the large temporal variability, the trends are not significant at most of the grid points. Furthermore, it becomes clear that the environmental conditions that favor the formation of hailstorms prevail in larger areas. This finding suggests that, despite the local-scale nature of convective storms, the ambient conditions favoring these events are mainly controlled by large-scale circulation patterns and mechanisms. This result is important to estimate the convective potential of the atmosphere in case of single events.

Does Weather Matter? The Effect of Weather Patterns and Temporal Factors on Pediatric Orthopedic Trauma Volume

PubMed Central

Livingston, Kristin S.; Miller, Patricia E.; Lierhaus, Anneliese; Matheney, Travis H.; Mahan, Susan T.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Orthopaedists often speculate how weather and school schedule may influence pediatric orthopedic trauma volume, but few studies have examined this. This study aims to determine: how do weather patterns, day, month, season and public school schedule influence the daily frequency of pediatric orthopedic trauma consults and admissions? Methods: With IRB approval, orthopedic trauma data from a level 1 pediatric trauma center, including number of daily orthopedic trauma consults and admissions, were collected from July 2009 to March 2012. Historical weather data (high temperatures, precipitation and hours of daylight), along with local public school schedule data were collected for the same time period. Univariate and multivariate regression models were used to show the average number of orthopedic trauma consults and admissions as a function of weather and temporal variables. Results: High temperature, precipitation, month and day of the week significantly affected the number of daily consults and admissions. The number of consults and admissions increased by 1% for each degree increase in temperature (p=0.001 and p<0.001, respectively), and decreased by 21% for each inch of precipitation (p<0.001, p=0.006). Daily consults on snowy days decreased by an additional 16% compared to days with no precipitation. November had the lowest daily consult and admission rate, while September had the highest. Daily consult rate was lowest on Wednesdays and highest on Saturdays. Holiday schedule was not independently significant. Conclusion: Pediatric orthopedic trauma consultations and admissions are highly linked to temperature and precipitation, as well as day of the week and time of year. PMID:27990193

Does Weather Matter? The Effect of Weather Patterns and Temporal Factors on Pediatric Orthopedic Trauma Volume.

PubMed

Livingston, Kristin S; Miller, Patricia E; Lierhaus, Anneliese; Matheney, Travis H; Mahan, Susan T

2016-01-01

Orthopaedists often speculate how weather and school schedule may influence pediatric orthopedic trauma volume, but few studies have examined this. This study aims to determine: how do weather patterns, day, month, season and public school schedule influence the daily frequency of pediatric orthopedic trauma consults and admissions? With IRB approval, orthopedic trauma data from a level 1 pediatric trauma center, including number of daily orthopedic trauma consults and admissions, were collected from July 2009 to March 2012. Historical weather data (high temperatures, precipitation and hours of daylight), along with local public school schedule data were collected for the same time period. Univariate and multivariate regression models were used to show the average number of orthopedic trauma consults and admissions as a function of weather and temporal variables. High temperature, precipitation, month and day of the week significantly affected the number of daily consults and admissions. The number of consults and admissions increased by 1% for each degree increase in temperature (p=0.001 and p<0.001, respectively), and decreased by 21% for each inch of precipitation (p<0.001, p=0.006). Daily consults on snowy days decreased by an additional 16% compared to days with no precipitation. November had the lowest daily consult and admission rate, while September had the highest. Daily consult rate was lowest on Wednesdays and highest on Saturdays. Holiday schedule was not independently significant. Pediatric orthopedic trauma consultations and admissions are highly linked to temperature and precipitation, as well as day of the week and time of year.

Accumulation of atmospheric sulfur in some Costa Rican soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bern, Carleton R.; Townsend, Alan R.

2013-01-01

Sulfur is one of the macronutrient elements whose sources to terrestrial ecosystems should shift from dominance by rock-weathering to atmospheric deposition as soils and underlying substrate undergo progressive weathering and leaching. However, the nature and timing of this transition is not well known. We investigated sources of sulfur to tropical rain forests growing on basalt-derived soils in the Osa Peninsula region of Costa Rica. Sulfur sources were examined using stable isotope ratios (δ34S) and compared to chemical indices of soil development. The most weathered soils, and the forests they supported, are dominated by atmospheric sulfur, while a less weathered soil type contains both rock-derived and atmospheric sulfur. Patterns of increasing δ34S with increasing soil sulfur concentration across the landscape suggest atmospheric sulfur is accumulating, and little rock-derived sulfur has been retained. Soil sulfur, minus adsorbed sulfate, is correlated with carbon and nitrogen, implying that sulfur accumulation occurs as plants and microbes incorporate sulfur into organic matter. Only the lower depth increments of the more weathered soils contained significant adsorbed sulfate. The evidence suggests a pattern of soil development in which sulfur-bearing minerals in rock, such as sulfides, weather early relative to other minerals, and the released sulfate is leached away. Sulfur added via atmospheric deposition is retained as organic matter accumulates in the soil profile. Adsorbed sulfate accumulates later, driven by changes in soil chemistry and mineralogy. These aspects of sulfur behavior during pedogenesis in this environment may hasten the transition to dominance by atmospheric sources.

Assessing the vulnerability of the transportation industry of Ukraine to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khomenko, Inna

2017-04-01

Climate change will affect transportation primarily through increases in several types of weather and climate extremes. The impacts will vary by mode of transportation and region of the country, but they will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems. In the study impact of climate change on operation of road transport are analysed on the basis of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Data contains series of daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature, daily liquid (or mixed) and solid precipitation, daily mean relative humidity and daily mean and maximum wind speed, obtained for the period of 2011 to 2050 for 28 cities distributed evenly across Ukraine. Spatial and temporal distributions of meteorological variables are obtained. The statistic characteristics obtained were compared with the correspondent climate normals and highway-related temporal changeability is determined. Frequency of freezing rain, wet snow, very hot days, droughts, fogs, ice-covered ground, slippery wet ground, ice and snow slippery coat are investigated. Climate and economic risks to the road transport network are assessed. Maps of spatial distribution of risk assessment are obtained. The results obtained show typical weather pattern is changed and climate and weather extreme influencing on operation of road transport are more frequent for the both scenarios, but for the RCP 8.5 scenario hazard weather occurs more often. During the period of 2011-2050 significant climate warming (by 2-3°C) is registered. Extreme temperatures are observed more frequently. High temperatures bring on growth in frequency of wildfires and heat waves. Annual precipitation amount decreases, except the western mountain and northern regions, where precipitation amount increase on 35%. Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation can produce droughts in southern, eastern and central regions. But growth in precipitation in mountain region can cause flooding and landslides. Strong increase in mixed precipitation and significant reduction in ice and liquid precipitation take place for all territory of Ukraine. In the southern region ice precipitation is virtually vanished and observed only 2-3 days per year. Growth of mixed precipitation causes increase in severe weather events such as freezing precipitation, ice-covered ground and snow slippery coat.

The Future of Planetary Climate Modeling and Weather Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Del Genio, A. D.; Domagal-Goldman, S. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Kopparapu, R. K.; Schmidt, G. A.; Sohl, L. E.

2017-01-01

Modeling of planetary climate and weather has followed the development of tools for studying Earth, with lags of a few years. Early Earth climate studies were performed with 1-dimensionalradiative-convective models, which were soon fol-lowed by similar models for the climates of Mars and Venus and eventually by similar models for exoplan-ets. 3-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) became common in Earth science soon after and within several years were applied to the meteorology of Mars, but it was several decades before a GCM was used to simulate extrasolar planets. Recent trends in Earth weather and and climate modeling serve as a useful guide to how modeling of Solar System and exoplanet weather and climate will evolve in the coming decade.

Severe Weather Environments in Atmospheric Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A. T.; Kennedy, A. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric reanalyses combine historical observation data using a fixed assimilation scheme to achieve a dynamically coherent representation of the atmosphere. How well these reanalyses represent severe weather environments via proxies is poorly defined. To quantify the performance of reanalyses, a database of proximity soundings near severe storms from the Rapid Update Cycle 2 (RUC-2) model will be compared to a suite of reanalyses including: North American Reanalysis (NARR), European Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), 2nd Modern-Era Retrospective Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). A variety of severe weather parameters will be calculated from these soundings including: convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm relative helicity (SRH), supercell composite parameter (SCP), and significant tornado parameter (STP). These soundings will be generated using the SHARPpy python module, which is an open source tool used to calculate severe weather parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the NARR and JRA55 are significantly more skilled at producing accurate severe weather environments than the other reanalyses. The primary difference between these two reanalyses and the remaining reanalyses is a significant negative bias for thermodynamic parameters. To facilitate climatological studies, the scope of work will be expanded to compute these parameters for the entire domain and duration of select renalyses. Preliminary results from this effort will be presented and compared to observations at select locations. This dataset will be made pubically available to the larger scientific community, and details of this product will be provided.

MSFC Doppler Lidar Science experiments and operations plans for 1981 airborne test flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fichtl, G. H.; Bilbro, J. W.; Kaufman, J. W.

1981-01-01

The flight experiment and operations plans for the Doppler Lidar System (DLS) are provided. Application of DLS to the study of severe storms and local weather penomena is addressed. Test plans involve 66 hours of flight time. Plans also include ground based severe storm and local weather data acquisition.

Restoration of severely weathered wood

Treesearch

R. Sam Williams; Mark Knaebe

2000-01-01

Severely weathered window units were used to test various restoration methods and pretreatments. Sanded and unsanded units were pretreated with a consolidant or water repellent preservative, finished with an oil- or latex-based paint system, and exposed outdoors near Madison, WI, for five years. Pretreatments were applied to both window sashes (stiles and rails) and...

ClimateNet: A Machine Learning dataset for Climate Science Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhat, M.; Biard, J.; Ganguly, S.; Ames, S.; Kashinath, K.; Kim, S. K.; Kahou, S.; Maharaj, T.; Beckham, C.; O'Brien, T. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Williams, D. N.; Kunkel, K.; Collins, W. D.

2017-12-01

Deep Learning techniques have revolutionized commercial applications in Computer vision, speech recognition and control systems. The key for all of these developments was the creation of a curated, labeled dataset ImageNet, for enabling multiple research groups around the world to develop methods, benchmark performance and compete with each other. The success of Deep Learning can be largely attributed to the broad availability of this dataset. Our empirical investigations have revealed that Deep Learning is similarly poised to benefit the task of pattern detection in climate science. Unfortunately, labeled datasets, a key pre-requisite for training, are hard to find. Individual research groups are typically interested in specialized weather patterns, making it hard to unify, and share datasets across groups and institutions. In this work, we are proposing ClimateNet: a labeled dataset that provides labeled instances of extreme weather patterns, as well as associated raw fields in model and observational output. We develop a schema in NetCDF to enumerate weather pattern classes/types, store bounding boxes, and pixel-masks. We are also working on a TensorFlow implementation to natively import such NetCDF datasets, and are providing a reference convolutional architecture for binary classification tasks. Our hope is that researchers in Climate Science, as well as ML/DL, will be able to use (and extend) ClimateNet to make rapid progress in the application of Deep Learning for Climate Science research.

Investigations on the Possibilities of Monitoring Coastal Changes Including Shallow Under Water Areas with Uas Photo Bathmetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grenzdörffer, G. J.; Naumann, M.

2016-06-01

UAS become a very valuable tool for coastal morphology. Not only for mapping but also for change detection and a better understanding of processes along and across the shore. This contribution investigates the possibilities of UAS to determine the water depth in clear shallow waters by means of the so called "photo bathymetry". From the results of several test flights it became clear that three factors influence the ability and the accuracy of bathymetric sea floor measurements. Firstly, weather conditions. Sunny weather is not always good. Due to the high image resolution the sunlight gets focussed even in very small waves causing moving patterns on shallow grounds with high reflection properties, such as sand. This effect invisible under overcast weather conditions. Waves, may also introduce problems and mismatches. Secondly the quality and the accuracy of the georeferencing with SFM algorithms. As multi image key point matching will not work over water, the proposed approach will only work for projects closely to the coastline with enough control on the land. Thirdly the software used and the intensity of post processing and filtering. Refraction correction and the final interpolation of the point cloud into a DTM are the last steps. If everything is done appropriately, accuracies in the bathymetry in the range of 10 - 50 cm, depending on the water depth are possible.

Effects of atmospheric variability on energy utilization and conservation. [Space heating energy demand modeling; Program HEATLOAD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiter, E.R.; Johnson, G.R.; Somervell, W.L. Jr.

Research conducted between 1 July 1975 and 31 October 1976 is reported. A ''physical-adaptive'' model of the space-conditioning demand for energy and its response to changes in weather regimes was developed. This model includes parameters pertaining to engineering factors of building construction, to weather-related factors, and to socio-economic factors. Preliminary testing of several components of the model on the city of Greeley, Colorado, yielded most encouraging results. Other components, especially those pertaining to socio-economic factors, are still under development. Expansion of model applications to different types of structures and larger regions is presently underway. A CRT-display model for energy demandmore » within the conterminous United States also has passed preliminary tests. A major effort was expended to obtain disaggregated data on energy use from utility companies throughout the United States. The study of atmospheric variability revealed that the 22- to 26-day vacillation in the potential and kinetic energy modes of the Northern Hemisphere is related to the behavior of the planetary long-waves, and that the midwinter dip in zonal available potential energy is reflected in the development of blocking highs. Attempts to classify weather patterns over the eastern and central United States have proceeded satisfactorily to the point where testing of our method for longer time periods appears desirable.« less

Characteristics of cyclist crashes in Italy using latent class analysis and association rule mining

PubMed Central

De Angelis, Marco; Marín Puchades, Víctor; Fraboni, Federico; Pietrantoni, Luca

2017-01-01

The factors associated with severity of the bicycle crashes may differ across different bicycle crash patterns. Therefore, it is important to identify distinct bicycle crash patterns with homogeneous attributes. The current study aimed at identifying subgroups of bicycle crashes in Italy and analyzing separately the different bicycle crash types. The present study focused on bicycle crashes that occurred in Italy during the period between 2011 and 2013. We analyzed categorical indicators corresponding to the characteristics of infrastructure (road type, road signage, and location type), road user (i.e., opponent vehicle and cyclist’s maneuver, type of collision, age and gender of the cyclist), vehicle (type of opponent vehicle), and the environmental and time period variables (time of the day, day of the week, season, pavement condition, and weather). To identify homogenous subgroups of bicycle crashes, we used latent class analysis. Using latent class analysis, the bicycle crash data set was segmented into 19 classes, which represents 19 different bicycle crash types. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the association between class membership and severity of the bicycle crashes. Finally, association rules were conducted for each of the latent classes to uncover the factors associated with an increased likelihood of severity. Association rules highlighted different crash characteristics associated with an increased likelihood of severity for each of the 19 bicycle crash types. PMID:28158296

Objective Use of Climate Indices to Inform Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts in the Columbia River Basin - An Initial Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pytlak, E.; McManamon, A.; Hughes, S. P.; Van Der Zweep, R. A.; Butcher, P.; Karafotias, C.; Beckers, J.; Welles, E.

2016-12-01

Numerous studies have documented the impacts that large scale weather patterns and climate phenomenon like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific-North American (PNA) Pattern, and others can have on seasonal temperature and precipitation in the Columbia River Basin (CRB). While far from perfect in terms of seasonal predictability in specific locations, these intra-annual weather and climate signal do tilt the odds toward different temperature and precipitation outcomes, which in turn can have impacts on seasonal snowpacks, streamflows and water supply in large river basins like the CRB. We hypothesize that intraseasonal climate signals and long wave jet stream patterns can be objectively incorporated into what it is otherwise a climatology-based set of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts, and can increase the predictive skill and utility of these forecasts used for mid-range hydropower planning. The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) and Deltares have developed a subsampling-resampling method to incorporate climate mode information into the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts (Beckers, et al., 2016). Since 2015, BPA and Deltares USA have experimented with this method in pre-operational use, using five objective multivariate climate indices that appear to have the greatest predictive value for seasonal temperature and precipitation in the CRB. The indices are used to objectively select historical weather from about twenty analog years in the 66-year (1949-2015) historical ESP set. These twenty scenarios then serve as the starting point to generate monthly synthetic weather and streamflow time series to return to a set of 66 streamflow traces. Our poster will share initial results from the 2015 and 2016 water years, which included large swings in the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, persistent blocking jet stream patterns, and the development of a strong El Niño event. While the results are very preliminary and for only two seasons, there may be some value in incorporating objectively-identified climate signals into ESP-based streamflow forecasts.Beckers, J. V. L., Weerts, A. H., Tijdeman, E., and Welles, E.: ENSO-Conditioned Weather Resampling Method for Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-72, in review, 2016.

Optimizing Winter Wheat Resilience to Climate Change in Rain Fed Crop Systems of Turkey and Iran.

PubMed

Lopes, Marta S; Royo, Conxita; Alvaro, Fanny; Sanchez-Garcia, Miguel; Ozer, Emel; Ozdemir, Fatih; Karaman, Mehmet; Roustaii, Mozaffar; Jalal-Kamali, Mohammad R; Pequeno, Diego

2018-01-01

Erratic weather patterns associated with increased temperatures and decreasing rainfall pose unique challenges for wheat breeders playing a key part in the fight to ensure global food security. Within rain fed winter wheat areas of Turkey and Iran, unusual weather patterns may prevent attaining maximum potential increases in winter wheat genetic gains. This is primarily related to the fact that the yield ranking of tested genotypes may change from one year to the next. Changing weather patterns may interfere with the decisions breeders make about the ideotype(s) they should aim for during selection. To inform breeding decisions, this study aimed to optimize major traits by modeling different combinations of environments (locations and years) and by defining a probabilistic range of trait variations [phenology and plant height (PH)] that maximized grain yields (GYs; one wheat line with optimal heading and height is suggested for use as a testing line to aid selection calibration decisions). Research revealed that optimal phenology was highly related to the temperature and to rainfall at which winter wheat genotypes were exposed around heading time (20 days before and after heading). Specifically, later winter wheat genotypes were exposed to higher temperatures both before and after heading, increased rainfall at the vegetative stage, and reduced rainfall during grain filling compared to early genotypes. These variations in exposure to weather conditions resulted in shorter grain filling duration and lower GYs in long-duration genotypes. This research tested if diversity within species may increase resilience to erratic weather patterns. For the study, calculated production of a selection of five high yielding genotypes (if grown in five plots) was tested against monoculture (if only a single genotype grown in the same area) and revealed that a set of diverse genotypes with different phenologies and PHs was not beneficial. New strategies of progeny selection are discussed: narrow range of variation for phenology in families may facilitate the discovery and selection of new drought-resistant and avoidant wheat lines targeting specific locations.

Optimizing Winter Wheat Resilience to Climate Change in Rain Fed Crop Systems of Turkey and Iran

PubMed Central

Lopes, Marta S.; Royo, Conxita; Alvaro, Fanny; Sanchez-Garcia, Miguel; Ozer, Emel; Ozdemir, Fatih; Karaman, Mehmet; Roustaii, Mozaffar; Jalal-Kamali, Mohammad R.; Pequeno, Diego

2018-01-01

Erratic weather patterns associated with increased temperatures and decreasing rainfall pose unique challenges for wheat breeders playing a key part in the fight to ensure global food security. Within rain fed winter wheat areas of Turkey and Iran, unusual weather patterns may prevent attaining maximum potential increases in winter wheat genetic gains. This is primarily related to the fact that the yield ranking of tested genotypes may change from one year to the next. Changing weather patterns may interfere with the decisions breeders make about the ideotype(s) they should aim for during selection. To inform breeding decisions, this study aimed to optimize major traits by modeling different combinations of environments (locations and years) and by defining a probabilistic range of trait variations [phenology and plant height (PH)] that maximized grain yields (GYs; one wheat line with optimal heading and height is suggested for use as a testing line to aid selection calibration decisions). Research revealed that optimal phenology was highly related to the temperature and to rainfall at which winter wheat genotypes were exposed around heading time (20 days before and after heading). Specifically, later winter wheat genotypes were exposed to higher temperatures both before and after heading, increased rainfall at the vegetative stage, and reduced rainfall during grain filling compared to early genotypes. These variations in exposure to weather conditions resulted in shorter grain filling duration and lower GYs in long-duration genotypes. This research tested if diversity within species may increase resilience to erratic weather patterns. For the study, calculated production of a selection of five high yielding genotypes (if grown in five plots) was tested against monoculture (if only a single genotype grown in the same area) and revealed that a set of diverse genotypes with different phenologies and PHs was not beneficial. New strategies of progeny selection are discussed: narrow range of variation for phenology in families may facilitate the discovery and selection of new drought-resistant and avoidant wheat lines targeting specific locations. PMID:29765385

A long-lived tornado on 7 December 2010 in mainland Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belo-Pereira, Margarida; Andrade, Cristina; Pinto, Paulo

2017-03-01

On 7 December 2010 a long lived convective storm formed southwest of Lisbon in an instability line that developed in a very moist and unstable airmass, in the circulation of an extra-tropical cyclone propagating north-eastwards. This storm crossed the Lisbon district and spawned an F3 tornado a few dozens of kilometers to the northeast. Several parameters evaluating buoyancy, available moisture and vertical wind shear, were derived from Lisbon rawinsonde and ECMWF analyses, highlighting an environment that is favourable for tornadic development. The tornado touchdown occurred by 14:15 UTC, lasting for about 45 min and producing an exceptionally long damage path of around 54 km, according to the damage survey. It caused about 18 million Euros damage, > 40 injured people, but no fatalities. This storm had a very long lifetime of at least 5 h, intensified inland, sustained strong updrafts during, at least, 1 h and hold large hail cores as observed on radar. Exhibiting several supercell like features, it also produced intense lightning, with a predominance of cloud-to-ground flashes before the tornado touchdown and intra-cloud flashes during the tornado lifetime. Furthermore, in high resolution visible satellite imagery, a pattern of feeder clouds was identified one hour before tornadogenesis. This pattern has been associated to storm intensification and the onset of severe weather.

General-aviation's view of progress in the aviation weather system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundgren, Douglas J.

1988-01-01

For all its activity statistics, general-aviation is the most vulnerable to hazardous weather. Of concern to the general aviation industry are: (1) the slow pace of getting units of the Automated Weather Observation System (AWOS) to the field; (2) the efforts of the National Weather Service to withdraw from both the observation and dissemination roles of the aviation weather system; (3) the need for more observation points to improve the accuracy of terminal and area forecasts; (4) the need for improvements in all area forecasts, terminal forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts; (5) slow progress in cockpit weather displays; (6) the erosion of transcribed weather broadcasts (TWEB) and other deficiencies in weather information dissemination; (7) the need to push to make the Direct User Access Terminal (DUAT) a reality; and (7) the need to improve severe weather (thunderstorm) warning systems.

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

PubMed

Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

2016-03-01

The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. © 2015 APJPH.

Impact of nowcasting on the production and processing of agricultural crops. [in the US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dancer, W. S.; Tibbitts, T. W.

1973-01-01

The value was studied of improved weather information and weather forecasting to farmers, growers, and agricultural processing industries in the United States. The study was undertaken to identify the production and processing operations that could be improved with accurate and timely information on changing weather patterns. Estimates were then made of the potential savings that could be realized with accurate information about the prevailing weather and short term forecasts for up to 12 hours. This weather information has been termed nowcasting. The growing, marketing, and processing operations of the twenty most valuable crops in the United States were studied to determine those operations that are sensitive to short-term weather forecasting. Agricultural extension specialists, research scientists, growers, and representatives of processing industries were consulted and interviewed. The value of the crops included in this survey and their production levels are given. The total value for crops surveyed exceeds 24 billion dollars and represents more than 92 percent of total U.S. crop value.

Climate-soil Interactions: Global Change, Local Properties, and Ecological Sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change is predicted to alter historic patterns of precipitation and temperature in rangelands globally. Vegetation community response to altered weather patterns will be mediated at the site level by local-scale properties that govern ecological potential, including geology, topograph...

Synoptic and Mesoscale Climatologies of Severe Local Storms for the American Midwest.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, David Leslie

This study investigates the synoptic and mesoscale environments associated with severe local storms (SELS) in the heart of the American Midwest. This region includes west-central Illinois, most of Indiana, the extreme western counties of Ohio, and a small part of northeastern Kentucky. The primary objectives of this study are to determine the surface and middle-tropospheric synoptic circulation patterns and thermodynamic and kinematic environments associated with SELS event types (tornadoes, hail, severe straight -line winds), and to assess the degree to which the synoptic circulation patterns and meso-beta scale kinematic and thermodynamic climatology of the Midwest differ from that of the Great Plains. A secondary objective is to investigate the possible role that land-surface atmosphere interactions play in the spatial distribution of SELS. A new subjective synoptic typing scheme is developed and applied to determine the synoptic-scale circulation patterns associated with the occurrence of SELS event types. This scheme is based on a combination of surface and middle -tropospheric patterns. Thermodynamic and kinematic parameters are analyzed to determine meso-scale environments favorable for the development of SELS. Results indicate that key synoptic-scale circulation patterns, and specific ranges of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters are related to specific SELS event types. These circulation types and ranges of thermodynamic and kinematic parameters may be used to help improve the medium-range forecasting of severe local storms. Results of the secondary objective reveal that the spatial distribution of SELS events is clustered within the study region, and most occur under a negative climate division-level soil moisture gradient; that is, a drier upwind division than the division in which the event occurs. Moreover, the spatial distribution of SELS events is compared against a map of soil types and vegetation. The resulting distribution depicts a visual correlation between the primary soil and vegetative boundaries and clusters of SELS. This supports the likely role of meso-scale land-surface-atmosphere interactions in severe weather development for humid lowlands of the Midwest United States.

Field Studies Delve Into the Intricacies of Mountain Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernando, Harindra J. S.; Pardyjak, Eric R.

2013-09-01

Mountain meteorology, in particular weather prediction in complex (rugged) terrain, is emerging as an important topic for science and society. Large urban settlements such as Los Angeles, Hong Kong, and Rio de Janeiro have grown within or in the shadow of complex terrain, and managing the air quality of such cities requires a good understanding of the air flow patterns that spill off of mountains. On a daily time scale, the interconnected engineered and natural systems that sustain urban metabolism and quality of life are affected by weather [Fernando, 2010]. Further, recent military engagements in remote mountainous areas have heightened the need for better weather predictions—alpine warfare is considered to be one of the most dangerous types of combat.

The Granite Mountain Atmospheric Sciences Testbed (GMAST): A Facility for Long Term Complex Terrain Airflow Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zajic, D.; Pace, J. C.; Whiteman, C. D.; Hoch, S.

2011-12-01

This presentation describes a new facility at Dugway Proving Ground (DPG), Utah that can be used to study airflow over complex terrain, and to evaluate how airflow over a mountain barrier affects wind patterns over adjacent flatter terrain. DPG's primary mission is to conduct testing, training, and operational assessments of chemical and biological weapon systems. These operations require very precise weather forecasts. Most test operations at DPG are conducted on fairly flat test ranges having uniform surface cover, where airflow patterns are generally well-understood. However, the DPG test ranges are located alongside large, isolated mountains, most notably Granite Mountain, Camelback Mountain, and the Cedar Mountains. Airflows generated over, or influenced by, these mountains can affect wind patterns on the test ranges. The new facility, the Granite Mountain Atmospheric Sciences Testbed, or GMAST, is designed to facilitate studies of airflow interactions with topography. This facility will benefit DPG by improving understanding of how mountain airflows interact with the test range conditions. A core infrastructure of weather sensors around and on Granite Mountain has been developed including instrumented towers and remote sensors, along with automated data collection and archival systems. GMAST is expected to be in operation for a number of years and will provide a reference domain for mountain meteorology studies, with data useful for analysts, modelers and theoreticians. Visiting scientists are encouraged to collaborate with DPG personnel to utilize this valuable scientific resource and to add further equipment and scientific designs for both short-term and long-term atmospheric studies. Several of the upcoming MATERHORN (MountAin TERrain atmospHeric mOdeling and obseRvatioNs) project field tests will be conducted at DPG, giving an example of GMAST utilization and collaboration between DPG and visiting scientists.

Dispersal of suspended sediments in the turbid and highly stratified Red River plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Maren, D. S.; Hoekstra, P.

2005-03-01

The Red River, annually transporting 100 million tons of sediment, flows into a shallow shelf sea where it rapidly deposits most of its sediment on a prograding delta front. Oceanographic cruises were carried out in February-March and July-August 2000 to determine the vertical structure of the Ba Lat river plume and sediment transport patterns on the delta front. The surface waters in the coastal zone were strongly stratified with a low density and high sediment concentration during the larger part of the wet season, caused by low mixing rates of river plumes with ambient water. The river plume is advected to the south by a well-developed coastal current which originates from the river plumes that enter the Gulf of Tonkin North of the Ba Lat and are deflected southward by the Coriolis force. Sediment predominantly leaves the surface plume by settling from suspension and less by mixing of fresh and marine water. A one-dimensional model for plume deposition valid for fair weather conditions indicates that most sediment is deposited within 10 km and southward of the river mouth. Of prime importance for this depositional pattern is the phase relation between river outflow and tidal currents, in combination with the southward surface flow; alongshore advection is very low during outflow of the turbid river plume. The agreement of modeled plume sedimentation patterns with long-term bathymetric changes strongly suggests that fair weather depositional processes determine delta front development. This may be related to the fact that reworking of sediment mainly occurs several months after the peak deposition period; in the meantime sediment compaction and consolidation have increased the shear strength of deposited sediments.

Abrupt response of chemical weathering to Late Quaternary hydroclimate changes in northeast Africa

PubMed Central

Bastian, Luc; Revel, Marie; Bayon, Germain; Dufour, Aurélie; Vigier, Nathalie

2017-01-01

Chemical weathering of silicate rocks on continents acts as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and has played an important role in the evolution of the Earth’s climate. However, the magnitude and the nature of the links between weathering and climate are still under debate. In particular, the timescale over which chemical weathering may respond to climate change is yet to be constrained at the continental scale. Here we reconstruct the relationships between rainfall and chemical weathering in northeast Africa for the last 32,000 years. Using lithium isotopes and other geochemical proxies in the clay-size fraction of a marine sediment core from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we show that chemical weathering in the Nile Basin fluctuated in parallel with the monsoon-related climatic evolution of northeast Africa. We also evidence strongly reduced mineral alteration during centennial-scale regional drought episodes. Our findings indicate that silicate weathering may respond as quickly as physical erosion to abrupt hydroclimate reorganization on continents. Consequently, we anticipate that the forthcoming hydrological disturbances predicted for northeast Africa may have a major impact on chemical weathering patterns and soil resources in this region. PMID:28290474

Abrupt response of chemical weathering to Late Quaternary hydroclimate changes in northeast Africa.

PubMed

Bastian, Luc; Revel, Marie; Bayon, Germain; Dufour, Aurélie; Vigier, Nathalie

2017-03-14

Chemical weathering of silicate rocks on continents acts as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and has played an important role in the evolution of the Earth's climate. However, the magnitude and the nature of the links between weathering and climate are still under debate. In particular, the timescale over which chemical weathering may respond to climate change is yet to be constrained at the continental scale. Here we reconstruct the relationships between rainfall and chemical weathering in northeast Africa for the last 32,000 years. Using lithium isotopes and other geochemical proxies in the clay-size fraction of a marine sediment core from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we show that chemical weathering in the Nile Basin fluctuated in parallel with the monsoon-related climatic evolution of northeast Africa. We also evidence strongly reduced mineral alteration during centennial-scale regional drought episodes. Our findings indicate that silicate weathering may respond as quickly as physical erosion to abrupt hydroclimate reorganization on continents. Consequently, we anticipate that the forthcoming hydrological disturbances predicted for northeast Africa may have a major impact on chemical weathering patterns and soil resources in this region.

Basement Fracturing and Weathering On- and Offshore Norway - Genesis, Age, and Landscape Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knies, J.; van der Lelij, R.; Faust, J.; Scheiber, T.; Broenner, M.; Fredin, O.; Mueller, A.; Viola, G.

2014-12-01

Saprolite remnants onshore Scandinavia have been investigated only sporadically. The nature and age of the deeply weathered material thus remains only loosely constrained. The type and degree of weathering of in situ weathered soils are indicative of the environmental conditions during their formation. When external forcing changes, properties related to previous weathering conditions are usually preserved, for example in clay mineral assemblages. By constraining the age and rate of weathering onshore and by isotopically dating selected faults determined to be intimately linked to weathered basement blocks, the influence of climate development, brittle deformation and landscape processes on weathering can be quantified. The "BASE" project aims to establish a temporal and conceptual framework for brittle tectonics, weathering patterns and landscape evolution affecting the basement onshore and offshore Norway. We will study the formation of saprolite in pre-Quaternary times, the influence of deep weathering on landscape development and establish a conceptual structural template of the evolution of the brittle deformational features that are exposed on onshore (weathered) basement blocks. Moreover, saprolitic material may have been eroded and preserved along the Norwegian continental margin during Cenozoic times. By studying both the onshore remnants and offshore erosional products deposited during periods of extreme changes of climate and tectonic boundary conditions (e..g Miocene-Pliocene), new inferences on the timing and controlling mechanisms of denudation, and on the relevance of deep weathering on Late Cenozoic global cooling can be drawn.

Predicting motorcycle crash injury severity using weather data and alternative Bayesian multivariate crash frequency models.

PubMed

Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Sakrani, Taha; Dasu, Mohan; Zhou, Jiao

2017-11-01

Motorcycle crashes constitute a very high proportion of the overall motor vehicle fatalities in the United States, and many studies have examined the influential factors under various conditions. However, research on the impact of weather conditions on the motorcycle crash severity is not well documented. In this study, we examined the impact of weather conditions on motorcycle crash injuries at four different severity levels using San Francisco motorcycle crash injury data. Five models were developed using Full Bayesian formulation accounting for different correlations commonly seen in crash data and then compared for fitness and performance. Results indicate that the models with serial and severity variations of parameters had superior fit, and the capability of accurate crash prediction. The inferences from the parameter estimates from the five models were: an increase in the air temperature reduced the possibility of a fatal crash but had a reverse impact on crashes of other severity levels; humidity in air was not observed to have a predictable or strong impact on crashes; the occurrence of rainfall decreased the possibility of crashes for all severity levels. Transportation agencies might benefit from the research results to improve road safety by providing motorcyclists with information regarding the risk of certain crash severity levels for special weather conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fourth National Aeronautics and Space Administration Weather and Climate Program Science Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreins, E. R. (Editor)

1979-01-01

The NASA Weather and Climate Program has two major thrusts. The first involves the development of experimental and prototype operational satellite systems, sensors, and space facilities for monitoring and understanding the atmosphere. The second thrust involves basic scientific investigation aimed at studying the physical and chemical processes which control weather and climate. This fourth science review concentrated on the scientific research rather than the hardware development aspect of the program. These proceedings contain 65 papers covering the three general areas: severe storms and local weather research, global weather, and climate.

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms

PubMed Central

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-01-01

Introduction: This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Methods: Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. Results: Results indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Discussion: Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced. PMID:25685629

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms.

PubMed

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-12-22

This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. RESULTS indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced.

Rainwater as a chemical agent of geologic processes; a review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carroll, Dorothy

1962-01-01

Chemical analyses of the rainwater collected at several localities are given to show the variations of the principal constitutents. In rock weathering and soil-forming processes, the chemical composition of rainwater has an important effect which has been evaluated for only a few arid areas. In humid regions the important amounts of calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium added yearly by rain may be expected to influence the composition of the soil water and thereby the cations in the exchange positions of soil clay minerals. The acquisition of cations by clay minerals may slow down chemical weathering. The stability of soil clay minerals is influenced by the constant accession of cations from rainwater. Conversely, the clay minerals modify the amounts and kinds of cations that are leached out by drainage waters. The stability of micaceous minerals in soils may be partly due to accessions of K +1 ions from rainwater. The pH of rainwater in any area varies considerably and seems to form a seasonal and regional pattern. The recorded pH values range from 3.0 to 9.8.

Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barrett, Joe H., III; Short, David

2008-01-01

This report describes work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in predicting peak winds at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron requested the AMU develop a tool to help them forecast the speed and timing of the daily peak and average wind, from the surface to 300 ft on KSC/CCAFS during the cool season. Based on observations from the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network , Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) surface observations, and CCAFS sounding s from the cool season months of October 2002 to February 2007, the AMU created mul tiple linear regression equations to predict the timing and speed of the daily peak wind speed, as well as the background average wind speed. Several possible predictors were evaluated, including persistence , the temperature inversion depth and strength, wind speed at the top of the inversion, wind gust factor (ratio of peak wind speed to average wind speed), synoptic weather pattern, occurrence of precipitation at the SLF, and strongest wind in the lowest 3000 ft, 4000 ft, or 5000 ft.

Temporal and spatial structure in a daily wildfire-start data set from the western United States (198696)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartlein, P.J.; Hostetler, S.W.; Shafer, S.L.; Holman, J.O.; Solomon, A.M.

2008-01-01

The temporal and spatial structure of 332 404 daily fire-start records from the western United States for the period 1986 through 1996 is illustrated using several complimentary visualisation techniques. We supplement maps and time series plots with Hovmo??ller diagrams that reduce the spatial dimensionality of the daily data in order to reveal the underlying space?time structure. The mapped distributions of all lightning- and human-started fires during the 11-year interval show similar first-order patterns that reflect the broad-scale distribution of vegetation across the West and the annual cycle of climate. Lightning-started fires are concentrated in the summer half-year and occur in widespread outbreaks that last a few days and reflect coherent weather-related controls. In contrast, fires started by humans occur throughout the year and tend to be concentrated in regions surrounding large-population centres or intensive-agricultural areas. Although the primary controls of human-started fires are their location relative to burnable fuel and the level of human activity, spatially coherent, weather-related variations in their incidence can also be noted. ?? IAWF 2008.

Animal health aspects of adaptation to climate change: beating the heat and parasites in a warming Europe.

PubMed

Skuce, P J; Morgan, E R; van Dijk, J; Mitchell, M

2013-06-01

Weather patterns in northern European regions have changed noticeably over the past several decades, featuring warmer, wetter weather with more extreme events. The climate is projected to continue on this trajectory for the foreseeable future, even under the most modest warming scenarios. Such changes will have a significant impact on livestock farming, both directly through effects on the animals themselves, and indirectly through changing exposure to pests and pathogens. Adaptation options aimed at taking advantage of new opportunities and/or minimising the risks of negative impacts will, in themselves, have implications for animal health and welfare. In this review, we consider the potential consequences of future intensification of animal production, challenges associated with indoor and outdoor rearing of animals and aspects of animal transportation as key examples. We investigate the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the epidemiology of important livestock pathogens, with a particular focus on parasitic infections, and the likely animal health consequences associated with selected adaptation options. Finally, we attempt to identify key gaps in our knowledge and suggest future research priorities.

Fire occurrence prediction in the Mediterranean: Application to Southern France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papakosta, Panagiota; Öster, Jan; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel

2013-04-01

The areas that extend in the Mediterranean basin have a long fire history. The climatic conditions of wet winters and long hot drying summers support seasonal fire events, mainly ignited by humans. Extended land fragmentation hinders fire spread, but seasonal winds (e.g. Mistral in South France or Meltemia in Greece) can drive fire events to become uncontrollable fires with severe impacts to humans and the environment [1]. Prediction models in these areas should incorporate both natural and anthropogenic factors. Several indices have been developed worldwide to express fire weather conditions. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is currently adapted by many countries in Europe due to the easily observable input weather parameters (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation) and the easy-to-implement algorithms of the Canadian formulation describing fuel moisture relations [2],[3]. Human influence can be expressed directly by human presence (e.g. population density) or indirectly by proxy indicators (e.g. street density [4], land cover type). The random nature of fire occurrences and the uncertainties associated with the influencing factors motivate probabilistic prediction models. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model of fire occurrence probability under natural and anthropogenic influence in Southern France and to compare it with earlier developed predictions in other Mediterranean areas [5]. Fire occurrence is modeled as a Poisson process. Two interpolation methods (Kriging and Inverse Distance Weighting) are used to interpolate daily weather observations from weather stations to a 1 km² spatial grid and their results are compared. Poisson regression estimates the parameters of the model and the resulting daily predictions are provided in terms of maps displaying fire occurrence rates. The model is applied to the regions Provence-Alpes-Côtes D'Azur und Languedoc-Roussillon in the South of France. Weather data are obtained from the German and French Weather Services (Deutscher Wetterdienst and Météo-France). Historical fire events are taken from Prométhée database. Time series 2000-2010 are used as learning data and data from 2011 is used as the validation data. The resulting model can support real-time fire risk estimation for improved allocation of firefighting resources and planning of other mitigation actions. [1] Keeley, J.E.; Bond, W.J.; Bradstock, R.A.; Pausas, J.G.; Rundel, P.W. (2012): Fire in Mediterranean ecosystems: ecology, evolution and management. Cambridge University Press, New York, USA, pp.515 [2] Lawson, B.D.; Armitage, O.B. (2008): Weather Guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. [3] Van Wagner, C.E.; Pickett, T.L. (1985): Equations and FORTRAN Program for the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Forestry Technical Report 33. Canadian Forestry Service, Government of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada [4] Syphard, A.D.; Radeloff, V.C.; Keuler, N.S.; Taylor, R.S.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Stewart, S.I.; Clayton, M.K. (2008): Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 17, pp.602-613 [5] Papakosta, P.; Klein, F.; König, S.; Straub, D. (2012): Linking spatio-temporal data to the Fire Weather Index to estimate the probability of wildfire in the Mediterranean. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol.14, EGU2012-12737, EGU General Assembly 2012

Self-perceived weather sensitivity and joint pain in older people with osteoarthritis in six European countries: results from the European Project on OSteoArthritis (EPOSA)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background People with osteoarthritis (OA) frequently report that their joint pain is influenced by weather conditions. This study aimed to examine whether there are differences in perceived joint pain between older people with OA who reported to be weather-sensitive versus those who did not in six European countries with different climates and to identify characteristics of older persons with OA that are most predictive of perceived weather sensitivity. Methods Baseline data from the European Project on OSteoArthritis (EPOSA) were used. ACR classification criteria were used to determine OA. Participants with OA were asked about their perception of weather as influencing their pain. Using a two-week follow-up pain calendar, average self-reported joint pain was assessed (range: 0 (no pain)-10 (greatest pain intensity)). Linear regression analyses, logistic regression analyses and an independent t-test were used. Analyses were adjusted for several confounders. Results The majority of participants with OA (67.2%) perceived the weather as affecting their pain. Weather-sensitive participants reported more pain than non-weather-sensitive participants (M = 4.1, SD = 2.4 versus M = 3.1, SD = 2.4; p < 0.001). After adjusting for several confounding factors, the association between self-perceived weather sensitivity and joint pain remained present (B = 0.37, p = 0.03). Logistic regression analyses revealed that women and more anxious people were more likely to report weather sensitivity. Older people with OA from Southern Europe were more likely to indicate themselves as weather-sensitive persons than those from Northern Europe. Conclusions Weather (in)stability may have a greater impact on joint structures and pain perception in people from Southern Europe. The results emphasize the importance of considering weather sensitivity in daily life of older people with OA and may help to identify weather-sensitive older people with OA. PMID:24597710

Self-perceived weather sensitivity and joint pain in older people with osteoarthritis in six European countries: results from the European Project on OSteoArthritis (EPOSA).

PubMed

Timmermans, Erik J; van der Pas, Suzan; Schaap, Laura A; Sánchez-Martínez, Mercedes; Zambon, Sabina; Peter, Richard; Pedersen, Nancy L; Dennison, Elaine M; Denkinger, Michael; Castell, Maria Victoria; Siviero, Paola; Herbolsheimer, Florian; Edwards, Mark H; Otero, Angel; Deeg, Dorly J H

2014-03-05

People with osteoarthritis (OA) frequently report that their joint pain is influenced by weather conditions. This study aimed to examine whether there are differences in perceived joint pain between older people with OA who reported to be weather-sensitive versus those who did not in six European countries with different climates and to identify characteristics of older persons with OA that are most predictive of perceived weather sensitivity. Baseline data from the European Project on OSteoArthritis (EPOSA) were used. ACR classification criteria were used to determine OA. Participants with OA were asked about their perception of weather as influencing their pain. Using a two-week follow-up pain calendar, average self-reported joint pain was assessed (range: 0 (no pain)-10 (greatest pain intensity)). Linear regression analyses, logistic regression analyses and an independent t-test were used. Analyses were adjusted for several confounders. The majority of participants with OA (67.2%) perceived the weather as affecting their pain. Weather-sensitive participants reported more pain than non-weather-sensitive participants (M = 4.1, SD = 2.4 versus M = 3.1, SD = 2.4; p < 0.001). After adjusting for several confounding factors, the association between self-perceived weather sensitivity and joint pain remained present (B = 0.37, p = 0.03). Logistic regression analyses revealed that women and more anxious people were more likely to report weather sensitivity. Older people with OA from Southern Europe were more likely to indicate themselves as weather-sensitive persons than those from Northern Europe. Weather (in)stability may have a greater impact on joint structures and pain perception in people from Southern Europe. The results emphasize the importance of considering weather sensitivity in daily life of older people with OA and may help to identify weather-sensitive older people with OA.

Visualizing a possible atmospheric teleconnection associated with UK floods in autumn 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pall, P.; Bensema, K.; Stone, D.; Wehner, M. F.; Bethel, W.; Joy, K.

2012-12-01

Severe floods occurred across England and Wales during the record-wet autumn of the year 2000. Recently Pall et al. (2011) demonstrated that the risk of such floods occurring at that time substantially increased as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and that the synoptic weather system associated with the floods was a common but anomalously strong 'Scandinavia' atmospheric circulation pattern (a Rossby-wave-like train of tropospheric anomalies in geopotential height, extending from the subtropical Atlantic across Eurasia, with a cyclone over the UK and a strong anticyclone over Scandinavia). Blackburn and Hoskins (2001) suggest that this pattern was itself catalyzed by an anomalous upper-tropospheric flow of air: originating with an ascent of air due to convection over warm sea surface temperatures in the western Tropical Pacific, and ending in a descent of air over the Amazon in the proposed source region of the Scandinavia pattern. However, evidence for this so-called 'teleconnection' is not entirely clear in the idealised climate models they used. Here we use visualization techniques to search for this teleconnection in the simulations generated with the more comprehensive seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model of Pall et al. (2011) -- by identifying anomalous streamflow patterns and using the UV-CDAT software developed at Berkeley Lab to do so. Furthermore, since several thousand simulations were generated (in order to capture the rare flood event), totaling hundreds of GB in size, we use paralleisation techniques to perform this search efficiently.

Prevalence of weather sensitivity in Germany and Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackensen, Sylvia; Hoeppe, Peter; Maarouf, Abdel; Tourigny, Pierre; Nowak, Dennis

2005-01-01

Several studies have shown that atmospheric conditions can affect well-being or disease, and that some individuals seem to be more sensitive to weather than others. Since epidemiological data on the prevalence of weather-related health effects are lacking, two representative weather sensitivity (WS) surveys were conducted independently in Germany and Canada. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to identify the prevalence of WS in Germany and Canada, (2) to describe weather-related symptoms and the corresponding weather conditions, and (3) to compare the findings in the two countries. In Germany 1,064 citizens (age >16 years) were interviewed in January 2001, and in Canada 1,506 persons (age >18 years) were interviewed in January 1994. The results showed that 19.2% of the German population thought that weather affected their health “to a strong degree,” 35.3% that weather had “some influence on their health” (sum of both = 54.5% weather sensitive), whereas the remaining 45.5% did not consider that weather had an effect on their health status. In Canada 61% of the respondents considered themselves to be sensitive to the weather. The highest prevalence of WS (high + some influence) in Germans was found in the age group older than 60 years (68%), which was almost identical in the Canadian population (69%). The highest frequencies of weather-related symptoms were reported in Germany for stormy weather (30%) and when it became colder (29%). In Canada mainly cold weather (46%), dampness (21%) and rain (20%) were considered to affect health more than other weather types. The most frequent symptoms reported in Germany were headache/migraine (61%), lethargy (47%), sleep disturbances (46%), fatigue (42%), joint pain (40%), irritation (31%), depression (27%), vertigo (26%), concentration problems (26%) and scar pain (23%). Canadian weather-sensitive persons reported colds (29%), psychological effects (28%) and painful joints, muscles or arthritis (10%). In Germany 32% of the weather-sensitive subjects reported themselves to be unable to do their regular work because of weather-related symptoms at least once in the previous year, and 22% of them several times. Co-morbidity was significantly higher in weather-sensitive subjects both in Germany and Canada. These results clearly showed the important impact of WS on public health and the economy. These findings prompted us to start studies on the causal factors of weather-related health effects.

Assessing Potential Future Carbon Dynamics with Climate Change and Fire Management in a Mountainous Landscape on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, R. S.

2010-12-01

Forests of the mountainous landscapes of the maritime Pacific Northwestern USA may have high carbon sequestration potential via their high productivity and moderate to infrequent fire regimes. With climate change, there may be shifts in incidence and severity of fire, especially in the drier areas of the region, via changes to forest productivity and hydrology, and consequent effects to C sequestration and forest structure. To explore this issue, I assessed potential effects of fire management (little fire suppression/wildland fire management/highly effective fire suppression) under two climate change scenarios on future C sequestration dynamics (amounts and spatial pattern) in Olympic National Park, WA, over a 500-year simulation period. I used the simulation platform FireBGCv2, which contains a mechanistic, individual tree succession model, a spatially explicit climate-based biophysical model that uses daily weather data, and a spatially explicit fire model incorporating ignition, spread, and effects on ecosystem components. C sequestration patterns varied over time and spatial and temporal patterns differed somewhat depending on the climate change scenario applied and the fire management methods employed. Under the more extreme climate change scenario with little fire suppression, fires were most frequent and severe and C sequestration decreased. General trends were similar under the more moderate climate change scenario, as compared to current climate, but spatial patterns differed. Both climate change scenarios under highly effective fire suppression showed about 50% of starting total C after the initial transition phase, whereas with 10% fire suppression both scenarios exhibited about 10% of starting amounts. Areas of the landscape that served as refugia for older forest under increasing frequency of high severity fire were also hotspots for C sequestration in a landscape experiencing increasing frequency of disturbance with climate change.

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Extreme Space Weather Events: From Cradle to Grave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Pete; Baker, Dan; Liu, Ying D.; Verronen, Pekka; Singer, Howard; Güdel, Manuel

2018-02-01

Extreme space weather events, while rare, can have a substantial impact on our technologically-dependent society. And, although such events have only occasionally been observed, through careful analysis of a wealth of space-based and ground-based observations, historical records, and extrapolations from more moderate events, we have developed a basic picture of the components required to produce them. Several key issues, however, remain unresolved. For example, what limits are imposed on the maximum size of such events? What are the likely societal consequences of a so-called "100-year" solar storm? In this review, we summarize our current scientific understanding about extreme space weather events as we follow several examples from the Sun, through the solar corona and inner heliosphere, across the magnetospheric boundary, into the ionosphere and atmosphere, into the Earth's lithosphere, and, finally, its impact on man-made structures and activities, such as spacecraft, GPS signals, radio communication, and the electric power grid. We describe preliminary attempts to provide probabilistic forecasts of extreme space weather phenomena, and we conclude by identifying several key areas that must be addressed if we are better able to understand, and, ultimately, predict extreme space weather events.

Development of a fire weather index using meteorological observations within the Northeast United States

Treesearch

Michael J. Erickson; Joseph J. Charney; Brian A. Colle

2016-01-01

A fire weather index (FWI) is developed using wildfire occurrence data and Automated Surface Observing System weather observations within a subregion of the northeastern United States (NEUS) from 1999 to 2008. Average values of several meteorological variables, including near-surface temperature, relative humidity, dewpoint, wind speed, and cumulative daily...

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

2011-01-01

The AMU Team began four new tasks in this quarter: (1) began work to improve the AMU-developed tool that provides the launch weather officers information on peak wind speeds that helps them assess their launch commit criteria; (2) began updating lightning climatologies for airfields around central Florida. These climatologies help National Weather Service and Air Force forecasters determine the probability of lightning occurrence at these sites; (3) began a study for the 30th Weather Squadron at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California to determine if precursors can be found in weather observations to help the forecasters determine when they will get strong wind gusts in their northern towers; and (4) began work to update the AMU-developed severe weather tool with more data and possibly improve its performance using a new statistical technique. Include is a section of summaries and detail reporting on the quarterly tasks: (1) Peak Wind Tool for user Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (LCC), Phase IV, (2) Situational Lightning climatologies for Central Florida, Phase V, (3) Vandenberg AFB North Base Wind Study and (4) Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS).

Use of observational and model-derived fields and regime model output statistics in mesoscale forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forbes, G. S.; Pielke, R. A.

1985-01-01

Various empirical and statistical weather-forecasting studies which utilize stratification by weather regime are described. Objective classification was used to determine weather regime in some studies. In other cases the weather pattern was determined on the basis of a parameter representing the physical and dynamical processes relevant to the anticipated mesoscale phenomena, such as low level moisture convergence and convective precipitation, or the Froude number and the occurrence of cold-air damming. For mesoscale phenomena already in existence, new forecasting techniques were developed. The use of cloud models in operational forecasting is discussed. Models to calculate the spatial scales of forcings and resultant response for mesoscale systems are presented. The use of these models to represent the climatologically most prevalent systems, and to perform case-by-case simulations is reviewed. Operational implementation of mesoscale data into weather forecasts, using both actual simulation output and method-output statistics is discussed.

Student Workshops for Severe Weather Warning Decision Making using AWIPS-2 at the University of Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwink, A. B.; Morris, D.; Ware, P. J.; Ernst, S.; Holcomb, B.; Riley, S.; Hardy, J.; Mullens, S.; Bowlan, M.; Payne, C.; Bates, A.; Williams, B.

2016-12-01

For several years, employees at the Cooperative Institute of Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at the University of Oklahoma (OU) that are affiliated with Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) of the National Weather Service (NWS) provided training simulations to students from OU's School of Meteorology (SoM). These simulations focused on warning decision making using Dual-Pol radar data products in an AWIPS-1 environment. Building on these previous experiences, CIMMS/WDTD recently continued the collaboration with the SoM Oklahoma Weather Lab (OWL) by holding a warning decision workshop simulating a NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO) experience. The workshop took place in the WDTD AWIPS-2 computer laboratory with 25 AWIPS-2 workstations and the WES-2 Bridge (Weather Event Simulator) software which replayed AWIPS-2 data. Using the WES-2 Bridge and the WESSL-2 (WES Scripting Language) event display, this computer lab has the state-of-the-art ability to simulate severe weather events and recreate WFO warning operations. OWL Student forecasters attending the workshop worked in teams in a multi-player simulation of the Hastings, Nebraska WFO on May 6th, 2015, where thunderstorms across the service area produced large hail, damaging winds, and multiple tornadoes. This paper will discuss the design and goals of the WDTD/OWL workshop, as well as plans for holding similar workshops in the future.

Classifying Urban Space Types of Seoul using Time-series Heat Island map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, S.; KIM, H.; JE, M.

2017-12-01

In August 2016, the hottest heat occurred in Korea since the weather observation started in Korea. Due to climate changes, this heat phenomenon is expected to be severe more in the future. Thus, this study analyzed the heatwave occurred in 2016 with regard to Seoul from various angles to identify the characteristics of urban regions where the heat island phenomenon occurred. To do this, first, temperature data for two days on August 6 and 12 in 2016 when the hottest heatwave occurred were collected from 287 places of automatic weather stations (AWS) installed in Seoul and adjacent suburbs. The temperature distribution of Seoul was mapped using interpolation in every hour using the collected temperature data. Second, regions in Seoul were classified using statistical methods based on spatial characteristics such as land coverage, density, use type, and traffic volume in Seoul. Third, a daily pattern of change in temperature in the classified regions was depicted with a graph, and regions were re-classified based on the daily pattern of change in temperature. Finally, the characteristics of the classified regions were re-reviewed and then, heat island occurrence, continuation, and reduction measure by region type were discussed. The analysis results showed that a pattern of heatwave occurrence was exhibited differently by the classified region type. The results also showed that not only physical characteristics such as land coverage but also socioeconomic index such as population density and floating population that induced a traffic volume influenced the pattern of heatwave occurrence despite of the same land usage regions. This study not only classified urban climate regions by existing mean temperature and specific time-point temperature but also proposed a methodology that analyzed heat island phenomenon inside cities by using time-series temperature data in a day. Furthermore, this study enabled regional classification based on heat island characteristics to contribute to establishment of measure for each regional classification.

Development and Application of Syndromic Surveillance for Severe Weather Events Following Hurricane Sandy.

PubMed

Tsai, Stella; Hamby, Teresa; Chu, Alvin; Gleason, Jessie A; Goodrow, Gabrielle M; Gu, Hui; Lifshitz, Edward; Fagliano, Jerald A

2016-06-01

Following Hurricane Superstorm Sandy, the New Jersey Department of Health (NJDOH) developed indicators to enhance syndromic surveillance for extreme weather events in EpiCenter, an online system that collects and analyzes real-time chief complaint emergency department (ED) data and classifies each visit by indicator or syndrome. These severe weather indicators were finalized by using 2 steps: (1) key word inclusion by review of chief complaints from cases where diagnostic codes met selection criteria and (2) key word exclusion by evaluating cases with key words of interest that lacked selected diagnostic codes. Graphs compared 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods of 8 Hurricane Sandy-related severe weather event indicators against the same period in the following year. Spikes in overall ED visits were observed immediately after the hurricane for carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning, the 3 disrupted outpatient medical care indicators, asthma, and methadone-related substance use. Zip code level scan statistics indicated clusters of CO poisoning and increased medicine refill needs during the 2 weeks after Hurricane Sandy. CO poisoning clusters were identified in areas with power outages of 4 days or longer. This endeavor gave the NJDOH a clearer picture of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and yielded valuable state preparation information to monitor the effects of future severe weather events. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:463-471).

EFRs in the Rocky Mountain Research Station: Understanding patterns of forest growth, weather and disturbance [Chapter 2.8

Treesearch

G. Sam Foster; Todd Mower; Russell Graham; Theresa B. Jain

2014-01-01

How does forest growth integrate weather, insect and disease attach, management actions, and natural disturbance? Which of these has the most impact on forest growth, composition, structure, and change? These questions have animated the activities of scientists of the Rocky Mountain Research Station (RMRS) since its earliest days, and continue to animate our research...

Fire weather and likelihood: characterizing climate space for fire occurrence and extent in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Ashley E. Van Beusekom; William A. Gould; A. Carolina Monmany; Azad Henareh Khalyani; Maya Quiñones; Stephen J. Fain; Maria José Andrade-Núñez; Grizelle González

2018-01-01

Abstract Assessing the relationships between weather patterns and the likelihood of fire occurrence in the Caribbean has not been as central to climate change research as in temperate regions, due in part to the smaller extent of individual fires. However, the cumulative effect of small frequent fires can shape large landscapes, and fire-prone ecosystems are abundant...

Wildland fire as a self-regulating mechanism: the role of previous burns and weather in limiting fire progression

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks; Lisa M. Holsinger; Carol Miller; Cara R. Nelson

2015-01-01

Theory suggests that natural fire regimes can result in landscapes that are both self-regulating and resilient to fire. For example, because fires consume fuel, they may create barriers to the spread of future fires, thereby regulating fire size. Top-down controls such as weather, however, can weaken this effect. While empirical examples demonstrating this pattern-...

76 FR 2762 - Proposed Information Collection (VAAR Clause 852.236.91, Special Notes) Activity: Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-14

... support claims for price adjustment due to delay in construction caused by severe weather. DATES: Written... facilities available to perform the work. The clause also requires contractors submitting a claim for price adjustment due to severe weather delay to provide climatologically data covering the period of the claim and...

Effects of weather conditions, light conditions, and road lighting on vehicle speed.

PubMed

Jägerbrand, Annika K; Sjöbergh, Jonas

2016-01-01

Light conditions are known to affect the number of vehicle accidents and fatalities but the relationship between light conditions and vehicle speed is not fully understood. This study examined whether vehicle speed on roads is higher in daylight and under road lighting than in darkness, and determined the combined effects of light conditions, posted speed limit and weather conditions on driving speed. The vehicle speed of passenger cars in different light conditions (daylight, twilight, darkness, artificial light) and different weather conditions (clear weather, rain, snow) was determined using traffic and weather data collected on an hourly basis for approximately 2 years (1 September 2012-31 May 2014) at 25 locations in Sweden (17 with road lighting and eight without). In total, the data included almost 60 million vehicle passes. The data were cleaned by removing June, July, and August, which have different traffic patterns than the rest of the year. Only data from the periods 10:00 A.M.-04:00 P.M. and 06:00 P.M.-10:00 P.M. were used, to remove traffic during rush hour and at night. Multivariate adaptive regression splines was used to evaluate the overall influence of independent variables on vehicle speed and nonparametric statistical testing was applied to test for speed differences between dark-daylight, dark-twilight, and twilight-daylight, on roads with and without road lighting. The results show that vehicle speed in general depends on several independent variables. Analyses of vehicle speed and speed differences between daylight, twilight and darkness, with and without road lighting, did not reveal any differences attributable to light conditions. However, vehicle speed decreased due to rain or snow and the decrease was higher on roads without road lighting than on roads with lighting. These results suggest that the strong association between traffic accidents and darkness or low light conditions could be explained by drivers failing to adjust their speed to the reduced visibility in dark conditions.

Global economic impacts of severe Space Weather.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulte In Den Baeumen, Hagen; Cairns, Iver

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) strong enough to create electromagnetic effects at latitudes below the auroral oval are frequent events, and could have substantial impacts on electric power transmission and telecommunication grids. Modern society’s heavy reliance on these domestic and international networks increases our susceptibility to such a severe Space Weather event. Using a new high-resolution model of the global economy we simulate the economic impact of large CMEs for 3 different planetary orientations. We account for the economic impacts within the countries directly affected as well as the post-disaster economic shock in partner economies through international trade. For the CMEs modeled the total global economic impacts would range from US 380 billion to US 1 trillion. Of this total economic shock 50 % would be felt in countries outside the zone of direct impact, leading to a loss in global GDP of 0.1 - 1 %. A severe Space Weather event could lead to global economic damages of the same order as other weather disasters, climate change, and extreme financial crisis.

Short-Term Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting Based on Sky Imaging and Pattern Recognition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodge, Brian S; Feng, Cong; Cui, Mingjian

Accurate short-term forecasting is crucial for solar integration in the power grid. In this paper, a classification forecasting framework based on pattern recognition is developed for 1-hour-ahead global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting. Three sets of models in the forecasting framework are trained by the data partitioned from the preprocessing analysis. The first two sets of models forecast GHI for the first four daylight hours of each day. Then the GHI values in the remaining hours are forecasted by an optimal machine learning model determined based on a weather pattern classification model in the third model set. The weather pattern ismore » determined by a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. The developed framework is validated by the GHI and sky imaging data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Results show that the developed short-term forecasting framework outperforms the persistence benchmark by 16% in terms of the normalized mean absolute error and 25% in terms of the normalized root mean square error.« less

Probability of US Heat Waves Affected by a Subseasonal Planetary Wave Pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, Haiyan; Branstator, Grant; Wang, Hailan; Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M.

2013-01-01

Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating.We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range.

Dynamical systems proxies of atmospheric predictability and mid-latitude extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Faranda, Davide; Caballero, Rodrigo; Yiou, Pascal

2017-04-01

Extreme weather ocurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. Many extremes (for e.g. storms, heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation) are tied to specific patterns of midlatitude atmospheric circulation. The ability to identify these patterns and use them to enhance the predictability of the extremes is therefore a topic of crucial societal and economic value. We propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We use two simple dynamical systems metrics - local dimension and persistence - to identify sets of similar large-scale atmospheric flow patterns which present a coherent temporal evolution. When these patterns correspond to weather extremes, they therefore afford a particularly good forward predictability. We specifically test this technique on European winter temperatures, whose variability largely depends on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region. We find that our dynamical systems approach provides predictability of large-scale temperature extremes up to one week in advance.

Utilizing TRMM to Analyze Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Patterns During El Nino Southern Oscillations and Their Effects upon Available Fresh Water for South Florida Agricultural Planning and Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooley, Clayton; Billiot, Amanda; Lee, Lucas; McKee, Jake

2010-01-01

Water is in high demand for farmers regardless of where you go. Unfortunately, farmers in southern Florida have fewer options for water supplies than public users and are often limited to using available supplies from surface and ground water sources which depend in part upon variable weather patterns. There is an interest by the agricultural community about the effect weather has on usable surface water, however, research into viable weather patterns during La Nina and El Nino has yet to be researched. Using rainfall accumulation data from NASA Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite, this project s purpose was to assess the influence of El Nino and La Nina Oscillations on sea breeze thunderstorm patterns, as well as general rainfall patterns during the summer season in South Florida. Through this research we were able to illustrate the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall accumulation for each oscillation in relation to major agricultural areas. The study period for this project is from 1998, when TRMM was first launched, to 2009. Since sea breezes in Florida typically occur in the months of May through October, these months were chosen to be the months of the study. During this time, there were five periods of El Nino and two periods of La Nina, with a neutral period separating each oscillation. In order to eliminate rainfall from systems other than sea breeze thunderstorms, only days that were conducive to the development of a sea breeze front were selected.

Optimum space shuttle launch times relative to natural environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, R. L.

1977-01-01

The probabilities of favorable and unfavorable weather conditions for launch and landing of the STS under different criteria were computed for every three hours on a yearly basis using 14 years of weather data. These temporal probability distributions were considered for three sets of weather criteria encompassing benign, moderate and severe weather conditions for both Kennedy Space Center and for Edwards Air Force Base. In addition, the conditional probabilities were computed for unfavorable weather conditions occurring after a delay which may or may not be due to weather conditions. Also for KSC, the probabilities of favorable landing conditions at various times after favorable launch conditions have prevailed. The probabilities were computed to indicate the significance of each weather element to the overall result.

Unpuzzling American Climate: New World Experience and the Foundations of a New Science.

PubMed

White, Sam

2015-09-01

In the early exploration and colonization of the Americas, Europeans encountered unfamiliar climates that challenged received ideas from classical geography. This experience drove innovative efforts to understand and explain patterns of weather and seasons in the New World. A close examination of three climatic puzzles (the habitability of the tropics, debates on the likelihood of a Northwest Passage, and the unexpectedly harsh weather in the first North American colonies) illustrates how sixteenth- and seventeenth-century observers made three intellectual breakthroughs: conceiving of climates as a distinct subject of inquiry, crossing the hitherto-separated disciplines of geography and meteorology, and developing new theories regarding the influence of prevailing winds on patterns of weather and seasons. While unquantified and unsystematic, these novel approaches promoted a new understanding of climates critical to the emergence of climate science. This study offers new insights into the foundations of climatology and the role of the New World in early modern science.

Modelling unsaturated/saturated flow in weathered profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireson, A. M.; Ali, M. A.; Van Der Kamp, G.

2016-12-01

Vertical weathering profiles are a common feature of many geological materials, where the fracture or macropore porosity decreases progressively below the ground surface. The weathered near surface zone (WNSZ) has an enhanced storage and permeability. When the water table is deep, the WNSZ can act to buffer recharge. When the water table is shallow, intersecting the WNSZ, transmissivity and lateral saturated flow, increase with increasing water table elevation. Such a situation exists in the glacial till dominated landscapes of the Canadian prairies, effectively resulting in dynamic patterns of subsurface connectivity. Using dual permeability hydraulic properties with vertically scaled macroporosity, we show how the WNSZ can be represented in models. The resulting model can be more parsimonious than an equivalent model with two or more discrete layers, and more physically realistic. We implement our model in PARFLOW-CLM, and apply the model to a field site in the Canadian prairies. We are able to convincingly simulate shallow groundwater dynamics, and spatio-temporal patterns of groundwater connectivity.

The relationship between wind power, electricity demand and winter weather patterns in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Hazel E.; Scaife, Adam A.; Hoskins, Brian J.; Brayshaw, David J.

2017-06-01

Wind power generation in Great Britain has increased markedly in recent years. However due to its intermittency its ability to provide power during periods of high electricity demand has been questioned. Here we characterise the winter relationship between electricity demand and the availability of wind power. Although a wide range of wind power capacity factors is seen for a given demand, the average capacity factor reduces by a third between low and high demand. However, during the highest demand average wind power increases again, due to strengthening easterly winds. The nature of the weather patterns affecting Great Britain are responsible for this relationship. High demand is driven by a range of high pressure weather types, each giving cold conditions, but variable wind power availability. Offshore wind power is sustained at higher levels and offers a more secure supply compared to that onshore. However, during high demand periods in Great Britain neighbouring countries may struggle to provide additional capacity due to concurrent low temperatures and low wind power availability.

Home Fires

MedlinePlus

... to the touch and lights that flicker. Portable Space Heaters Keep combustible objects at least three feet ... Radiological Dispersion Device Severe Weather Snowstorms & Extreme Cold Space Weather Thunderstorms & Lightning Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Ready. ...

Third Space Weather Summit Held for Industry and Government Agencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intriligator, Devrie S.

2009-12-01

The potential for space weather effects has been increasing significantly in recent years. For instance, in 2008 airlines flew about 8000 transpolar flights, which experience greater exposure to space weather than nontranspolar flights. This is up from 368 transpolar flights in 2000, and the number of such flights is expected to continue to grow. Transpolar flights are just one example of the diverse technologies susceptible to space weather effects identified by the National Research Council's Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (2008). To discuss issues related to the increasing need for reliable space weather information, experts from industry and government agencies met at the third summit of the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group (CSWIG) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), held 30 April 2009 during Space Weather Week (SWW), in Boulder, Colo.

[Influence of some weather factors and the geomagnetic activity on the development of severe cardiological pathologies].

PubMed

Ozheredov, V A; Breus, T K; Gurfinkel', Iu I; Revich, B A; Mitrofanova, T A

2010-01-01

The influence of weather factors (atmospheric pressure and temperature) and the geomagnetic activity on the development of severe cardiological pathologies has been studied using the daily data from two Moscow clinics, accumulated over a period of 12 and 7 years. It was shown that the most biotropic factors are variations of atmospheric temperature. The relative contribution of the geomagnetic activity to the development of diseases is only 20%; however, its action is combined with the effect of ordinary weather because both these factors affect the vascular tonus of humans.

MRO MARCI Weather Report for the week of 3 November 2008 - 9 November 2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

[figure removed for brevity, see original site]

The MARCI acquires a global view of the red planet and its weather patterns every day. Please click on the image above and play the Quicktime movie to see how the weather on Mars changed during this time.

As in previous weeks, notable dust activity continued on Mars this past week. Early in the week, several smaller dust storms were observed near the edge of the residual North Polar Cap. By mid-week, a series of large dust storms coalesced to cloak the southern mid-latitudes. Dust storm activity was also observed closer to the equator over Solis and east of Hesperia. The latter storm has already affected operations at the MER-A (Spirit) landing site in Gusev Crater. Despite relatively clear skies over the Phoenix landing site this past week, the dwindling incoming solar radiation at the landing site proved insufficient for continued operations. After several months of exciting discoveries, the Phoenix mission has officially ended. On a more positive note, the skies over MER-B (Opportunity) in Meridiani remained relatively clear throughout the week.

Earlier Mars Weather Reports are available at the [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Click on image for larger version of Reference Map

The image(s) and caption seen here are value-added products. MSSS personnel processed the images and wrote the caption information. While the image(s) are in the Public Domain, NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS requests that you credit the source of the image(s). Re-use of the caption text without credit is plagiarism. Please give the proper credit for use of the image(s) and/or caption.

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, manages the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington. Lockheed Martin Space Systems, Denver, is the prime contractor for the project and built the spacecraft. Malin Space Science Systems, San Diego, provided and operates the Context Camera and Mars Color Imager.

The Design and Evaluation of the Lighting Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (LISDAD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boldi, B.; Hodanish, S.; Sharp, D.; Williams, E.; Goodman, Steven; Raghavan, R.; Matlin, A.; Weber, M.

1998-01-01

The design and evaluation of the Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (LISDAD). The ultimate goal of the LISDAD system is to quantify the utility of total lightning information in short-term, severe-weather forecasting operations. To this end, scientists from NASA, NWS, and MIT organized an effort to study the relationship of lightning and severe-weather on a storm-by-storm, and even cell-by-cell basis for as many storms as possible near Melbourne, Florida. Melbourne was chosen as it offers a unique combination of high probability of severe weather and proximity to major relevant sensors - specifically: NASA's total lightning mapping system at Kennedy Space Center (the LDAR system at KSC); a NWS/NEXRAD radar (at Melbourne); and a prototype Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS, at Orlando), which obtains cloud-to-ground lightning Information from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), and also uses NSSL's Severe Storm Algorithm (NSSL/SSAP) to obtain information about various storm-cell parameters. To assist in realizing this project's goal, an interactive, real-time data processing system (the LISDAD system) has been developed that supports both operational short-term weather forecasting and post facto severe-storm research. Suggestions have been drawn from the operational users (NWS/Melbourne) in the design of the data display and its salient behavior. The initial concept for the users Graphical Situation Display (GSD) was simply to overlay radar data with lightning data, but as the association between rapid upward trends in the total lightning rate and severe weather became evident, the display was significantly redesigned. The focus changed to support the display of time series of storm-parameter data and the automatic recognition of cells that display rapid changes in the total-lightning flash rate. The latter is calculated by grouping discrete LDAR radiation sources into lightning flashes using a time-space association algorithm. Specifically, the GSD presents the user with the Composite Maximum Reflectivity obtained from the NWS/NEXRAD. Superimposed upon this background image are placed small black circles indicating the locations of storm cells identified by the NSSL/SSA. The circles become cyan if lightning is detected within the storm-cell; if the cell has lightning rates indicative of a severe-storm, the circle turns red. This paper will: (1) review the design of LISDAD system; (2) present some examples of its data display; and shown results of the lightning based severe-weather prediction algorithm.

A new-old approach for shallow landslide analysis and susceptibility zoning in fine-grained weathered soils of southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cascini, Leonardo; Ciurleo, Mariantonietta; Di Nocera, Silvio; Gullà, Giovanni

2015-07-01

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides involve several geo-environmental contexts and different types of soils. In clayey soils, they affect the most superficial layer, which is generally constituted by physically weathered soils characterised by a diffuse pattern of cracks. This type of landslide most commonly occurs in the form of multiple-occurrence landslide phenomena simultaneously involving large areas and thus has several consequences in terms of environmental and economic damage. Indeed, landslide susceptibility zoning is a relevant issue for land use planning and/or design purposes. This study proposes a multi-scale approach to reach this goal. The proposed approach is tested and validated over an area in southern Italy affected by widespread shallow landslides that can be classified as earth slides and earth slide-flows. Specifically, by moving from a small (1:100,000) to a medium scale (1:25,000), with the aid of heuristic and statistical methods, the approach identifies the main factors leading to landslide occurrence and effectively detects the areas potentially affected by these phenomena. Finally, at a larger scale (1:5000), deterministic methods, i.e., physically based models (TRIGRS and TRIGRS-unsaturated), allow quantitative landslide susceptibility assessment, starting from sample areas representative of those that can be affected by shallow landslides. Considering the reliability of the obtained results, the proposed approach seems useful for analysing other case studies in similar geological contexts.

Assessing Landscape Scale Wildfire Exposure for Highly Valued Resources in a Mediterranean Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcasena, Fermín J.; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella

2015-05-01

We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km2 located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

General weather conditions and precipitation contributing to the 2011 flooding in the Mississippi River and Red River of the North Basins, December 2010 through July 2011: Chapter B in 2011 floods of the central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vining, Kevin C.; Chase, Katherine J.; Loss, Gina R.

2013-01-01

Excessive precipitation produced severe flooding in the Mississippi River and Red River of the North Basins during spring and summer 2011. The 2011 flooding was caused by weather conditions that were affected in part by a La Niña climate pattern. During the 2010–11 climatological winter (December 2010–February 2011), several low pressure troughs from the Rocky Mountains into the Ohio River subbasin produced large amounts of precipitation. Precipitation was above normal to record amounts in parts of the Missouri River, Red River of the North, and upper Mississippi River subbasins, and mostly normal to below normal in the Ohio River and lower Mississippi River subbasins. During the 2011 climatological spring (March–May 2011), a large low pressure trough over the continental States and a high pressure ridge centered in the vicinity of the Gulf of Mexico combined to produce storms with copious precipitation along frontal boundaries across the Central States. Rain totals recorded during the April 18–28, 2011, precipitation event were more than 8 inches at several locations, while an impressive total of 16.15 inches was recorded at Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Several locations in the Missouri River subbasin had rainfall totals that were nearly one-third to one-half of their 1971–2000 normal annual amounts during a May 16–31, 2011, precipitation event. During June and July, thunderstorm development along frontal boundaries resulted in areas of heavy rain across the Missouri River, Red River of the North, and upper Mississippi River subbasins, while rainfall in the lower Mississippi River subbasin was mostly below normal.

27-day cycles in human mortality: Traute and Bernhard Düll

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halberg, F.; Düll-Pfaff, N.; Gumarova, L.; Zenchenko, T. A.; Schwartzkopff, O.; Freytag, E. M.; Freytag, J.; Cornelissen, G.

2013-04-01

This tribute to her parents by one co-author (NDP) is the fruit of a more than a decade-long search by the senior author (FH) for the details of the lives of Bernhard and Gertraud (''Traute'') Düll. These pioneers studied how space/terrestrial weather may differentially influence human mortality from various causes, the 27-day mortality pattern being different whether death was from cardiac or respiratory disease, or from suicide. FH is the translator of personal information about her parents provided by NDP in German. Figuratively, he also attempts to ''translate'' the Dülls' contribution in the context of the literature that had appeared before their work and after their deaths. Although the Dülls published in a then leading journal, among others (and FH had re-analyzed some of their work in a medical journal), they were unknown to academies or libraries (where FH had inquired about them). The Dülls thoroughly assembled death certificates to offer the most powerful evidence for an effect of solar activity reflected in human mortality, as did others before them. They went several steps further than their predecessors, however. They were the first to show possibly differential effects of space and/or Earth weather with respect to suicide and other deaths associated with the nervous and sensory systems vs. death from cardiac or respiratory disease as well as overall death by differences in the phase of a common 27-day cycle characterizing these mortality patterns. Furthermore, Bernhard Düll developed tests of human visual and auditory reaction time to study effects of weather and solar activity, publishing a book (his professorial dissertation) on the topic. His unpublished finding of an increased incidence of airplane crashes in association with higher solar activity was validated after his death, among others, by Tatiana Zenchenko and A. M. Merzlyi.

CALIOP-based Biomass Burning Smoke Plume Injection Height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Choi, H. D.; Fairlie, T. D.; Pouliot, G.; Baker, K. R.; Winker, D. M.; Trepte, C. R.; Szykman, J.

2017-12-01

Carbon and aerosols are cycled between terrestrial and atmosphere environments during fire events, and these emissions have strong feedbacks to near-field weather, air quality, and longer-term climate systems. Fire severity and burned area are under the control of weather and climate, and fire emissions have the potential to alter numerous land and atmospheric processes that, in turn, feedback to and interact with climate systems (e.g., changes in patterns of precipitation, black/brown carbon deposition on ice/snow, alteration in landscape and atmospheric/cloud albedo). If plume injection height is incorrectly estimated, then the transport and deposition of those emissions will also be incorrect. The heights to which smoke is injected governs short- or long-range transport, which influences surface pollution, cloud interaction (altered albedo), and modifies patterns of precipitation (cloud condensation nuclei). We are working with the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) science team and other stakeholder agencies, primarily the Environmental Protection Agency and regional partners, to generate a biomass burning (BB) plume injection height database using multiple platforms, sensors and models (CALIOP, MODIS, NOAA HMS, Langley Trajectory Model). These data have the capacity to provide enhanced smoke plume injection height parameterization in regional, national and international scientific and air quality models. Statistics that link fire behavior and weather to plume rise are crucial for verifying and enhancing plume rise parameterization in local-, regional- and global-scale models used for air quality, chemical transport and climate. Specifically, we will present: (1) a methodology that links BB injection height and CALIOP air parcels to specific fires; (2) the daily evolution of smoke plumes for specific fires; (3) plumes transport and deposited on the Greenland Ice Sheet; and (4) compare CALIOP-derived smoke plume injection to CMAQ modeled smoke plume injection. These results have the potential to provide value to national and international modeling communities (scientific and air quality) and to public land, fire, and air quality management and regulations communities.

27-day cycles in human mortality: Traute and Bernhard Düll

PubMed Central

Halberg, F.; Düll-Pfaff, N.; Gumarova, L.; Zenchenko, T. A.; Schwartzkopff, O.; Freytag, E. M.; Freytag, J.; Cornelissen, G.

2013-01-01

This tribute to her parents by one co-author (NDP) is the fruit of a more than a decade-long search by the senior author (FH) for the details of the lives of Bernhard and Gertraud (“Traute”) Düll. These pioneers studied how space/terrestrial weather may differentially influence human mortality from various causes, the 27-day mortality pattern being different whether death was from cardiac or respiratory disease, or from suicide. FH is the translator of personal information about her parents provided by NDP in German. Figuratively, he also attempts to “translate” the Dülls’ contribution in the context of the literature that had appeared before their work and after their deaths. Although the Dülls published in a then leading journal, among others (and FH had re-analyzed some of their work in a medical journal), they were unknown to academies or libraries (where FH had inquired about them). The Dülls thoroughly assembled death certificates to offer the most powerful evidence for an effect of solar activity reflected in human mortality, as did others before them. They went several steps further than their predecessors, however. They were the first to show possibly differential effects of space and/or Earth weather with respect to suicide and other deaths associated with the nervous and sensory systems vs. death from cardiac or respiratory disease as well as overall death by differences in the phase of a common 27-day cycle characterizing these mortality patterns. Furthermore, Bernhard Düll developed tests of human visual and auditory reaction time to study effects of weather and solar activity, publishing a book (his professorial dissertation) on the topic. His unpublished finding of an increased incidence of airplane crashes in association with higher solar activity was validated after his death, among others, by Tatiana Zenchenko and A. M. Merzlyi. PMID:24224144

Statistical characterization of spatial patterns of rainfall cells in extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacchi, Baldassare; Ranzi, Roberto; Borga, Marco

1996-11-01

The assumption of a particular type of distribution of rainfall cells in space is needed for the formulation of several space-time rainfall models. In this study, weather radar-derived rain rate maps are employed to evaluate different types of spatial organization of rainfall cells in storms through the use of distance functions and second-moment measures. In particular the spatial point patterns of the local maxima of rainfall intensity are compared to a completely spatially random (CSR) point process by applying an objective distance measure. For all the analyzed radar maps the CSR assumption is rejected, indicating that at the resolution of the observation considered, rainfall cells are clustered. Therefore a theoretical framework for evaluating and fitting alternative models to the CSR is needed. This paper shows how the "reduced second-moment measure" of the point pattern can be employed to estimate the parameters of a Neyman-Scott model and to evaluate the degree of adequacy to the experimental data. Some limitations of this theoretical framework, and also its effectiveness, in comparison to the use of scaling functions, are discussed.

Pattern recognition applied to infrared images for early alerts in fog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, Vincent; Marchetti, Mario; Dumoulin, Jean; Cord, Aurélien

2014-09-01

Fog conditions are the cause of severe car accidents in western countries because of the poor induced visibility. Its forecast and intensity are still very difficult to predict by weather services. Infrared cameras allow to detect and to identify objects in fog while visibility is too low for eye detection. Over the past years, the implementation of cost effective infrared cameras on some vehicles has enabled such detection. On the other hand pattern recognition algorithms based on Canny filters and Hough transformation are a common tool applied to images. Based on these facts, a joint research program between IFSTTAR and Cerema has been developed to study the benefit of infrared images obtained in a fog tunnel during its natural dissipation. Pattern recognition algorithms have been applied, specifically on road signs which shape is usually associated to a specific meaning (circular for a speed limit, triangle for an alert, …). It has been shown that road signs were detected early enough in images, with respect to images in the visible spectrum, to trigger useful alerts for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems.

Development of a Predictive Corrosion Model Using Locality-Specific Corrosion Indices

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-01

exposure data project in FY05, datasets from several other variables were needed. Specif- ically, historic data from weather stations was collected...from the weather agency closest to the sample exposure rack was collected. The distance from the weather station to the exposure rack was also noted...occurring within the first ½ mile or so of the coast. Often, the weather station will be somewhat further inland and not near the corrosion samples

The Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Weather Systems to the Warm-Season Precipitation in the United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritsch, J. M.; Kane, R. J.; Chelius, C. R.

1986-10-01

The contribution of precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems to the warm-season (April-September) rainfall in the United States is evaluated. Both Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC's) and other large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems that do not quite meet Maddox's criteria for being termed an MCC are included in the evaluation. The distribution and geographical limits of the precipitation from the convective weather systems are constructed for the warm seasons of 1982, a `normal' year, and 1983, a drought year. Precipitation characteristics of the systems are compared for the 2 years to determine how large-scale drought patterns affect their precipitation production.The frequency, precipitation characteristics and hydrologic ramifications of multiple occurrences, or series, of convective weather systems are presented and discussed. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the accumulated precipitation from a series of convective complexes is investigated and compared to that of Hurricane Alicia.It is found that mesoscale convective weather systems account for approximately 30% to 70% of the warm-season (April-September) precipitation over much of the region between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River. During the June through August period, their contribution is even larger. Moreover, series of convective weather systems are very likely the most prolific precipitation producer in the United States, rivaling and even exceeding that of hurricanes.Changes in the large-scale circulation patterns affected the seasonal precipitation from mesoscale convective weather systems by altering the precipitation characteristics of individual systems. In particular, for the drought period of 1983, the frequency of the convective systems remained nearly the same as in the `normal' year (1982); however, the average precipitation area and the average volumetric production significantly decreased. Nevertheless, the rainfall that was produced by mesoscale convective weather systems in the drought year accounted for most of the precipitation received during the critical crop growth period.It is concluded that mesoscale convective weather systems may be a crucial precipitation-producing deterrent to drought and an important mechanism for enhancing midsummer crop growth throughout the midwestern United States. Furthermore, because mesoscale convective weather systems account for such a large fraction of the warm-season precipitation, significant improvements in prediction of such systems would likely translate into significant improvements in quantitative precipitation forecast skill and corresponding improvements in hydrologic forecasts of runoff.

Linking Teleconnections and Iowa's Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, S. T.; Villarini, G.; Lavers, D. A.; Scoccimarro, E.

2013-12-01

In recent years Iowa and the U.S. Midwest has experienced both extreme drought and flood periods. With a drought in 2012 bounded by major floods in 2011 and 2013, the rapid progression from one extreme to the next is on the forefront of the public mind. Given that Iowa is a major agricultural state, extreme weather conditions can have severe socioeconomic consequences. In this research we investigate the large-scale climate processes that occurred concurrently and before a range of dry/wet and cold/hot periods to improve process understanding of these events. It is essential to understand the large-scale climate processes, as these can then provide valuable insight toward the development of long-term climate forecasts for Iowa. In this study monthly and seasonal surface temperature and precipitation over 1950-2012 across Iowa are used. Precipitation and surface temperature data are retrieved from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) Climate Group at Oregon State University. The large-scale atmospheric fields are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis 1 Project. Precipitation is stratified according to wet, normal, and dry conditions, while temperature according to hot, average, and cold periods. Different stratification criteria based on the precipitation and temperature distributions are examined. Mean sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperature composite maps for the northern hemisphere are then produced for the wet/dry conditions, and cold/hot conditions. Further analyses include correlation, anomalies, and assessment of large-scale planetary wave activity, shedding light on the differences and similarities among the opposite weather conditions. The results of this work will highlight regional weather patterns that are related to the climate over Iowa, providing valuable insight into the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of potentially extreme weather conditions over this area.

Codified Hashtags for Weather Warning on Twitter: an Italian Case Study

PubMed Central

Grasso, Valentina; Crisci, Alfonso

2016-01-01

Introduction: During emergencies increasing numbers of messages are shared through social media platforms becoming a primary source of information for lay people and emergency managers. For Twitter codified hashtagging is emerging as a practical way to coordinate messages during emergencies and quickly identify relevant information. This paper considers a case study on the use of codified hashtags concerning weather warning in Italy in three different regions. Methods: From November 3rd to December 2nd 2014, tweets identified by the 3 codified hashtags #allertameteoTOS, #allertameteoLIG and #allertameteoPIE were retrieved, collecting a total of 35,558 tweets published by 7361 unique tweets authors, with the aim to assess if codified hashtags could represent an effective way to align formal and informal sources of information during weather related emergencies. An auxiliary R-package was built to lead the analytics used in this study. Authors performed a manual coding of users, hashtags and content of messages of all Twitter data considered. Results: Content analysis showed that tweets were overwhelmingly related to situational updates, with a high percentage containing geo-location information. Communication patterns of different user types were discussed for the three contexts. In accordance with previous studies, individuals showed an active participation primarily functioning as information hub during the emergency. Discussion: In the proposed cases codified hashtags have proven to be an effective tool to convey useful information on Twitter by formal and informal sources. Where institutions supported the use of the predefined hashtag in communication activities, like in Tuscany, messages were very focused, with more than 90% of tweets being situational updates. In this perspective, use of codified hashtags may potentially improve the performance of systems for automatic information retrieval and processing during disasters. Keywords: social media, emergency management, Twitter, severe weather PMID:27500010

The influence from synoptic weather on the variation of air pollution and pollen exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grundström, Maria; Dahl, Åslög; Chen, Deliang; Pleijel, Håkan

2014-05-01

Exposure to elevated air pollution levels can make people more susceptible to allergies or result in more severe allergic reactions for people with an already pronounced sensitivity to pollen. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between urban air pollution (nitrogen oxides, ozone and particles) and airborne Betula pollen in Gothenburg, Sweden, during the pollen seasons for the years 2001-2012. Further, the influence from atmospheric weather pattern on pollen/pollution related risk, using Lamb Weather Types (LWT), was also considered. Daily LWTs were obtained by comparing the variation in atmospheric pressure from a 16 point grid over a given region on earth (scale ~1000km) and essentially describe the air mass movement for the region. They include two non-directional types, cyclonic (C) and anticyclonic (A) and eight directional types depending on the wind direction (N, NE, E... etc.). LWTs with dry and calm meteorological character e.g. limited precipitation and low to moderate wind speeds (A, NE, E, SE) were associated with strongly elevated air pollution and pollen levels where Betula was exceptionally high in LWTs NE and E. The co-variation between Betula pollen and ozone was strong and significant during situations with LWTs A, NE, E and SE. The most important conclusion from this study was that LWTs A, NE, E and SE were associated with high pollen and air pollution levels and can therefore be classified as high risk weather situations for combined air pollution and pollen exposure. Our study shows that LWTs have the potential to be developed into an objective tool for integrated air quality forecasting and a warning system for risk of high exposure situations.

Weather and Climate Monitoring Protocol, Channel Islands National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEachern, Kathryn; Power, Paula; Dye, Linda; Rudolph, Rocky

2008-01-01

Weather and climate are strong drivers of population dynamics, plant and animal spatial distributions, community interactions, and ecosystem states. Information on local weather and climate is crucial in interpreting trends and patterns in the natural environment for resource management, research, and visitor enjoyment. This document describes the weather and climate monitoring program at the Channel Islands National Park (fig. 1), initiated in the 1990s. Manual and automated stations, which continue to evolve as technology changes, are being used for this program. The document reviews the history of weather data collection on each of the five Channel Islands National Park islands, presents program administrative structure, and provides an overview of procedures for data collection, archival, retrieval, and reporting. This program overview is accompanied by the 'Channel Islands National Park Remote Automated Weather Station Field Handbook' and the 'Channel Islands National Park Ranger Weather Station Field Handbook'. These Handbooks are maintained separately at the Channel Island National Park as 'live documents' that are updated as needed to provide a current working manual of weather and climate monitoring procedures. They are available on request from the Weather Program Manager (Channel Islands National Park, 1901 Spinnaker Dr., Ventura, CA 93001; 805.658.5700). The two Field Handbooks describe in detail protocols for managing the four remote automated weather stations (RAWS) and the seven manual Ranger Weather Stations on the islands, including standard operating procedures for equipment maintenance and calibration; manufacturer operating manuals; data retrieval and archiving; metada collection and archival; and local, agency, and vendor contracts.

Interactive effects of prey and weather on golden eagle reproduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; McDonald, T.L.

1997-01-01

1. The reproduction of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos was studied in southwestern Idaho for 23 years, and the relationship between eagle reproduction and jackrabbit Lepus californicus abundance, weather factors, and their interactions, was modelled using general linear models. Backward elimination procedures were used to arrive at parsimonious models.2. The number of golden eagle pairs occupying nesting territories each year showed a significant decline through time that was unrelated to either annual rabbit abundance or winter severity. However, eagle hatching dates were significantly related to both winter severity and jackrabbit abundance. Eagles hatched earlier when jackrabbits were abundant, and they hatched later after severe winters.3. Jackrabbit abundance influenced the proportion of pairs that laid eggs, the proportion of pairs that were successful, mean brood size at fledging, and the number of young fledged per pair. Weather interacted with prey to influence eagle reproductive rates.4. Both jackrabbit abundance and winter severity were important in predicting the percentage of eagle pairs that laid eggs. Percentage laying was related positively to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to winter severity.5. The variables most useful in predicting percentage of laying pairs successful were rabbit abundance and the number of extremely hot days during brood-rearing. The number of hot days and rabbit abundance were also significant in a model predicting eagle brood size at fledging. Both success and brood size were positively related to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to the frequency of hot days in spring.6. Eagle reproduction was limited by rabbit abundance during approximately twothirds of the years studied. Weather influenced how severely eagle reproduction declined in those years.7. This study demonstrates that prey and weather can interact to limit a large raptor population's productivity. Smaller raptors could be affected more strongly, especially in colder or wetter climates.

Conveying Global Circulation Patterns in HDTV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardiner, N.; Janowiak, J.; Kinzler, R.; Trakinski, V.

2006-12-01

The American Museum of Natural History has partnered with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to educate general audiences about weather and climate using high definition video broadcasts built from half-hourly global mosaics of infrared (IR) data from five geostationary satellites. The dataset being featured was developed by NCEP to improve precipitation estimates from microwave data that have finer spatial resolution but poorer temporal coverage. The IR data span +/-60 degrees latitude and show circulation patterns at sufficient resolution to teach informal science center visitors about both weather and climate events and concepts. Design and editorial principles for this media program have been guided by lessons learned from production and annual updates of visualizations that cover eight themes in both biological and Earth system sciences. Two formative evaluations on two dates, including interviews and written surveys of 480 museum visitors ranging in age from 13 to over 60, helped refine the design and implementation of the weather and climate program and demonstrated that viewers understood the program's initial literacy objectives, including: (1) conveying the passage of time and currency of visualized data; (2) geographic relationships inherent to atmospheric circulation patterns; and (3) the authenticity of visualized data, i.e., their origin from earth-orbiting satellites. Surveys also indicated an interest and willingness to learn more about weather and climate principles and events. Expanded literacy goals guide ongoing, biweekly production and distribution of global cloud visualization pieces that reach combined audiences of approximately 10 million. Two more rounds of evaluation are planned over the next two years to assess the effectiveness of the media program in addressing these expanded literacy goals.

Skin histology and its role in heat dissipation in three pinniped species

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pinnipeds have a thick blubber layer and may have difficulty maintaining their body temperature during hot weather when on land. The skin is the main thermoregulatory conduit which emits excessive body heat. Methods Thorough evaluation of the skin histology in three pinniped species; the California sea lion-Zalophus californianus, the Pacific harbor seal-Phoca vitulina richardsi, and the Northern elephant seal-Mirounga angustirostris, was conducted to identify the presence, location and distribution of skin structures which contribute to thermoregulation. These structures included hair, adipose tissue, sweat glands, vasculature, and arteriovenous anastomoses (AVA). Thermal imaging was performed on live animals of the same species to correlate histological findings with thermal emission of the skin. Results The presence and distribution of skin structures directly relates to emissivity of the skin in all three species. Emissivity of skin in phocids (Pacific harbor and Northern elephant seals) follows a different pattern than skin in otariids (California sea lions). The flipper skin in phocids tends to be the most emissive region during hot weather and least emissive during cold weather. On the contrary in otariids, skin of the entire body has a tendency to be emissive during both hot and cold weather. Conclusion Heat dissipation of the skin directly relates to the presence and distribution of skin structures in all three species. Different skin thermal dissipation patterns were observed in phocid versus otariid seals. Observed thermal patterns can be used for proper understanding of optimum thermal needs of seals housed in research facilities, rescue centers and zoo exhibits. PMID:22889205

Titan's seasonal weather patterns, associated surface modification, and geological implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turtle, E. P.; Perry, J. E.; Barnes, J. W.; McEwen, A. S.; Barbara, J. M.; Del Genio, A. D.; Hayes, A. G.; West, R. A.; Lorenz, R. D.; Schaller, E. L.; Lunine, J. I.; Ray, T. L.; Lopes, R. M. C.; Stofan, E. R.

2013-09-01

Model predictions [e.g., 1-3] and observations [e.g., 4,5] illustrate changes in Titan's weather patterns related to the seasons (Fig. 1). In two cases, surface changes were documented following large cloud outbursts (Figs. 2, 3): the first in Arrakis Planitia at high southern latitudes in Fall 2004, during Titan's late southern summer [6]; and the second at lows southern latitudes in Concordia and Hetpet Regiones, Yalaing Terra (Fig. 3), and Adiri, in Fall 2010, just over a year after Titan's northern vernal equinox [4, 7, 8]. Not only do these storms demonstrate Titan's atmospheric conditions and processes, they also have important implications for Titan's surface process, its methane cycle, and its geologic history.

Adapting Buildings for Indoor Air Quality in a Changing Climate

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change presents many challenges, including the production of severe weather events. These events and efforts to minimize their effects through weatherization can adversely affect indoor environments.

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE PAGES

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.; ...

2015-11-17

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals.

PubMed

Paschalidou, A K; Kassomenos, P A; McGregor, G R

2017-11-15

Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimized circulation and weather type classifications relating large-scale atmospheric conditions to local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitnauer, C.; Beck, C.; Jacobeit, J.

2013-12-01

In the last decades the critical increase of the emission of air pollutants like nitrogen dioxide, sulfur oxides and particulate matter especially in urban areas has become a problem for the environment as well as human health. Several studies confirm a risk of high concentration episodes of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm (PM10) for the respiratory tract or cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore it is known that local meteorological and large scale atmospheric conditions are important influencing factors on local PM10 concentrations. With climate changing rapidly, these connections need to be better understood in order to provide estimates of climate change related consequences for air quality management purposes. For quantifying the link between large-scale atmospheric conditions and local PM10 concentrations circulation- and weather type classifications are used in a number of studies by using different statistical approaches. Thus far only few systematic attempts have been made to modify consisting or to develop new weather- and circulation type classifications in order to improve their ability to resolve local PM10 concentrations. In this contribution existing weather- and circulation type classifications, performed on daily 2.5 x 2.5 gridded parameters of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set, are optimized with regard to their discriminative power for local PM10 concentrations at 49 Bavarian measurement sites for the period 1980 to 2011. Most of the PM10 stations are situated in urban areas covering urban background, traffic and industry related pollution regimes. The range of regimes is extended by a few rural background stations. To characterize the correspondence between the PM10 measurements of the different stations by spatial patterns, a regionalization by an s-mode principal component analysis is realized on the high-pass filtered data. The optimization of the circulation- and weather types is implemented using two representative classification approaches, a k-means cluster analysis and an objective version of the Grosswetter types. They have been run with varying spatial and temporal settings as well as modified numbers of classes. As an evaluation metric for their performance several skill scores are used. Taking into account the outcome further attempts towards the optimization of circulation type classifications are made. These are varying meteorological input parameters (e.g. geopotential height, zonal and meridional wind, specific humidity, temperature) on several pressure levels (1000, 850 and 500 hPa) and combinations of these variables. All classification variants are again evaluated. Based on these analyses it is further intended to develop robust downscaling models for estimating possible future - climate change induced - variations of local PM10 concentrations in Bavaria from scenario runs of global CMIP5 climate models.

Cross-correlation map analyses show weather variation influences on mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, Michigan, 1989-2005.

PubMed

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Ionides, Edward L; Knepper, Randall G; Stanuszek, William W; Walker, Edward D; Wilson, Mark L

2012-07-01

Weather is important determinant of mosquito abundance that, in turn, influences vectorborne disease dynamics. In temperate regions, transmission generally is seasonal as mosquito abundance and behavior varies with temperature, precipitation, and other meteorological factors. We investigated how such factors affected species-specific mosquito abundance patterns in Saginaw County, MI, during a 17-yr period. Systematic sampling was undertaken at 22 trapping sites from May to September, during 1989-2005, for 19,228 trap-nights and 300,770 mosquitoes in total. Aedes vexans (Meigen), Culex pipiens L. and Culex restuans Theobald, the most abundant species, were analyzed. Weather data included local daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total precipitation, and average relative humidity. In addition to standard statistical methods, cross-correlation mapping was used to evaluate temporal associations with various lag periods between weather variables and species-specific mosquito abundances. Overall, the average number of mosquitoes was 4.90 per trap-night for Ae. vexans, 2.12 for Cx. pipiens, and 1.23 for Cx. restuans. Statistical analysis of the considerable temporal variability in species-specific abundances indicated that precipitation and relative humidity 1 wk prior were significantly positively associated with Ae. vexans, whereas elevated maximum temperature had a negative effect during summer. Cx. pipiens abundance was positively influenced by the preceding minimum temperature in the early season but negatively associated with precipitation during summer and with maximum temperature in July and August. Cx. restuans showed the least weather association, with only relative humidity 2-24 d prior being linked positively during late spring-early summer. The recently developed analytical method applied in this study could enhance our understanding of the influences of weather variability on mosquito population dynamics.

Sources and seasonal variation of PAHs in the sediments of drinking water reservoirs in Hong Kong and the Dongjiang River (China).

PubMed

Liang, Yan; Fung, Pui Ka; Tse, Man Fung; Hong, Hua Chang; Wong, Ming Hung

2008-11-01

The main objective of this study was to investigate occurrence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the sources of the drinking water supply of Hong Kong. The main emphasis was on the Dongjiang River in mainland China which is the major source, supplying 80% of the total consumption in Hong Kong (the remaining 20% is obtained from rain water). Sediments were collected from four sites along the Dongjiang River and four reservoirs in Hong Kong during both the dry and wet weather seasons. The concentrations of total PAHs in the sediments ranged between 36 and 539 microg/kg dry wt. The lower levels were detected at the upstream site on the Dongjiang River and at the reservoirs in Hong Kong (44-85 microg/kg dry wt), while the mid- and downstream sites on the Dongjiang River were more polluted (588-658 microg/kg dry wt). Examination of the PAH profiles revealed that the mid- and downstream sections of the Dongjiang River contained high percentages of 4,5,6-ring PAHs, similar to the amounts of atmospheric particulate matter and road dust collected during the dry weather season from the Pearl River Delta region as reported in the literature. Seasonal changes were revealed in the reservoirs of Hong Kong, with higher PAH levels in the wet weather season than in the dry weather season. For those reservoirs in Hong Kong that store water from the Dongjiang River, a distinct seasonal pattern was also observed, namely, that under dry weather season conditions the PAHs found in the sediments were primarily from petrogenic source, while under wet weather season conditions they were from pyrolytic sources. No such pattern was detected in the reservoirs which stored only rain water.

C3Winds: A Novel 3D Wind Observing System to Characterize Severe Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, M. A.; Wu, D. L.; Yee, J. H.; Boldt, J.; Demajistre, R.; Reynolds, E.; Tripoli, G. J.; Oman, L.; Prive, N.; Heidinger, A. K.; Wanzong, S.

2015-12-01

The CubeSat Constellation Cloud Winds (C3Winds) is a NASA Earth Venture Instrument (EV-I) concept with the primary objective to resolve high-resolution 3D dynamic structures of severe wind events. Rapid evolution of severe weather events highlights the need for high-resolution mesoscale wind observations. Yet mesoscale observations of severe weather dynamics are quite rare, especially over the ocean where extratropical and tropical cyclones (ETCs and TCs) can undergo explosive development. Measuring wind velocity at the mesoscale from space remains a great challenge, but is critically needed to understand and improve prediction of severe weather and tropical cyclones. Based on compact, visible/IR imagers and a mature stereoscopic technique, C3Winds has the capability to measure high-resolution (~2 km) cloud motion vectors and cloud geometric heights accurately by tracking cloud features from two formation-flying CubeSats, separated by 5-15 minutes. Complementary to lidar wind measurements from space, C3Winds will provide high-resolution wind fields needed for detailed investigations of severe wind events in occluded ETCs, rotational structures inside TC eyewalls, and ozone injections associated with tropopause folding events. Built upon mature imaging technologies and long history of stereoscopic remote sensing, C3Winds provides an innovative, cost-effective solution to global wind observations with the potential for increased diurnal sampling via CubeSat constellation.

Mapping fire probability and severity in a Mediterranean area using different weather and fuel moisture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arca, B.; Salis, M.; Bacciu, V.; Duce, P.; Pellizzaro, G.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.

2009-04-01

Although in many countries lightning is the main cause of ignition, in the Mediterranean Basin the forest fires are predominantly ignited by arson, or by human negligence. The fire season peaks coincide with extreme weather conditions (mainly strong winds, hot temperatures, low atmospheric water vapour content) and high tourist presence. Many works reported that in the Mediterranean Basin the projected impacts of climate change will cause greater weather variability and extreme weather conditions, with drier and hotter summers and heat waves. At long-term scale, climate changes could affect the fuel load and the dead/live fuel ratio, and therefore could change the vegetation flammability. At short-time scale, the increase of extreme weather events could directly affect fuel water status, and it could increase large fire occurrence. In this context, detecting the areas characterized by both high probability of large fire occurrence and high fire severity could represent an important component of the fire management planning. In this work we compared several fire probability and severity maps (fire occurrence, rate of spread, fireline intensity, flame length) obtained for a study area located in North Sardinia, Italy, using FlamMap simulator (USDA Forest Service, Missoula). FlamMap computes the potential fire behaviour characteristics over a defined landscape for given weather, wind and fuel moisture data. Different weather and fuel moisture scenarios were tested to predict the potential impact of climate changes on fire parameters. The study area, characterized by a mosaic of urban areas, protected areas, and other areas subject to anthropogenic disturbances, is mainly composed by fire-prone Mediterranean maquis. The input themes needed to run FlamMap were input as grid of 10 meters; the wind data, obtained using a computational fluid-dynamic model, were inserted as gridded file, with a resolution of 50 m. The analysis revealed high fire probability and severity in most of the areas, and therefore a high potential danger. The FlamMap outputs and the derived fire probability maps can be used in decision support systems for fire spread and behaviour and for fire danger assessment with actual and future fire regimes.

Resilient Grid Operational Strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pasqualini, Donatella

Extreme weather-related disturbances, such as hurricanes, are a leading cause of grid outages historically. Although physical asset hardening is perhaps the most common way to mitigate the impacts of severe weather, operational strategies may be deployed to limit the extent of societal and economic losses associated with weather-related physical damage.1 The purpose of this study is to examine bulk power-system operational strategies that can be deployed to mitigate the impact of severe weather disruptions caused by hurricanes, thereby increasing grid resilience to maintain continuity of critical infrastructure during extreme weather. To estimate the impacts of resilient grid operational strategies, Losmore » Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) developed a framework for hurricane probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). The probabilistic nature of this framework allows us to estimate the probability distribution of likely impacts, as opposed to the worst-case impacts. The project scope does not include strategies that are not operations related, such as transmission system hardening (e.g., undergrounding, transmission tower reinforcement and substation flood protection) and solutions in the distribution network.« less

Weather assessment and forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

Detection of Allophane on Mars Through Orbital and In-Situ Thermal-Infrared Spectroscopy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampe, E. B.; Kraft, M. D.; Sharp, T. G.; Golden, D. C.; Ming, Douglas W.

2011-01-01

We have collected laboratory thermal IR spectra of the mineraloid allophane and aluminosilicate gels. Using those spectra to model regional TES spectra, we suggest that several areas of Mars contain significant amounts of allophane-like weathering products. The presence of allophane on Mars indicates that 1) significant Al sources, such as feldspar or glass, were weathered; 2) weathering on Mars produced poorly-crystalline aluminosilicates, rather than easily identifiable crystalline minerals; and 3) some Martian weathering proceeded under moderate pH environments, suggesting acid weathering is not the only major alteration mechanism on Mars.

Breeding pond selection and movement patterns by eastern spadefoot toads (Scaphiopus holbrookii) in relation to weather and edaphic conditions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cathryn H. Greenberg; George W. Tanner

2004-08-31

Cathryn H. Greenberg and George W. Tanner. 2004. Breeding pond selection and movement patterns by eastern spadefoot toads (Scaphiopus holbrookii) in relation to weather and edaphic conditions. J. Herp. 38(4):569-577. Abstract: Eastern Spadefoot Toads (Scaphiopus holbrookii) require fish-free, isolated, ephemeral ponds for breeding but otherwise inhabit the surrounding uplands, commonly xeric longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) wiregrass (Aristida beyrichiana). Hence both pond and upland conditions can potentially affect their breeding biology, and population persistence. Hardwood invasion due to fire suppression in sandhills could alter upland and pond suitability by higher hardwood density and increased transpiration. In this paper we explore breedingmore » and neonatal emigration movements in relation to weather, hydrological conditions of ponds, and surrounding upland matrices. We use 9 years of data from continuous monitoring with drift fences and pitfall traps at 8 ephemeral ponds in 2 upland matrices: regularly-burned, savanna-like sandhills (n = 4), and hardwood-invaded sandhills (n = 4). Neither adult nor neonate captures differed between ponds within the 2 upland matrices, suggesting that they are tolerant of upland heterogeneity created by fire frequency. Explosive breeding occurred during 9 periods and in all seasons; adults were captured rarely otherwise. At a landscape-level rainfall, maximum change in barometric pressure, and an interaction between those 2 variables were significant predictors of explosive breeding. At a pond-level, rainfall, change in pond depth during the month prior to breeding, and days since a pond was last dry were significant predictors of adult captures. Transformation date, rather than weather, was associated with neonatal emigrations, which usually were complete within a week. Movement by first-captured adults and neonates was directional, but adult emigrations were apparently not always toward their origin. Our results suggest that Spadefoot Toads are highly adapted to breeding conditions and upland habitat heterogeneity created by weather patterns and fire frequency in Florida sandhills.« less

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vautard, Robert; Christidis, Nikolaos; Ciavarella, Andrew; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Bellprat, Omar; Christiansen, Bo; Colfescu, Ioana; Cowan, Tim; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Eden, Jonathan; Hauser, Mathias; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hempelmann, Nils; Klehmet, Katharina; Lott, Fraser; Nangini, Cathy; Orth, René; Radanovics, Sabine; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Stott, Peter; Tett, Simon; Wilcox, Laura; Yiou, Pascal

2018-04-01

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.

Development and Validation of a Weather-Based Model for Predicting Infection of Loquat Fruit by Fusicladium eriobotryae

PubMed Central

González-Domínguez, Elisa; Armengol, Josep; Rossi, Vittorio

2014-01-01

A mechanistic, dynamic model was developed to predict infection of loquat fruit by conidia of Fusicladium eriobotryae, the causal agent of loquat scab. The model simulates scab infection periods and their severity through the sub-processes of spore dispersal, infection, and latency (i.e., the state variables); change from one state to the following one depends on environmental conditions and on processes described by mathematical equations. Equations were developed using published data on F. eriobotryae mycelium growth, conidial germination, infection, and conidial dispersion pattern. The model was then validated by comparing model output with three independent data sets. The model accurately predicts the occurrence and severity of infection periods as well as the progress of loquat scab incidence on fruit (with concordance correlation coefficients >0.95). Model output agreed with expert assessment of the disease severity in seven loquat-growing seasons. Use of the model for scheduling fungicide applications in loquat orchards may help optimise scab management and reduce fungicide applications. PMID:25233340

Presenting Critical Space Weather Information to Customers and Stakeholders (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viereck, R. A.; Singer, H. J.; Murtagh, W. J.; Rutledge, B.

2013-12-01

Space weather involves changes in the near-Earth space environment that impact technological systems such as electric power, radio communication, satellite navigation (GPS), and satellite opeartions. As with terrestrial weather, there are several different kinds of space weather and each presents unique challenges to the impacted technologies and industries. But unlike terrestrial weather, many customers are not fully aware of space weather or how it impacts their systems. This issue is further complicated by the fact that the largest space weather events occur very infrequently with years going by without severe storms. Recent reports have estimated very large potential costs to the economy and to society if a geomagnetic storm were to cause major damage to the electric power transmission system. This issue has come to the attention of emergency managers and federal agencies including the office of the president. However, when considering space weather impacts, it is essential to also consider uncertainties in the frequency of events and the predicted impacts. The unique nature of space weather storms, the specialized technologies that are impacted by them, and the disparate groups and agencies that respond to space weather forecasts and alerts create many challenges to the task of communicating space weather information to the public. Many customers that receive forecasts and alerts are highly technical and knowledgeable about the subtleties of the space environment. Others know very little and require ongoing education and explanation about how a space weather storm will affect their systems. In addition, the current knowledge and understanding of the space environment that goes into forecasting storms is quite immature. It has only been within the last five years that physics-based models of the space environment have played important roles in predictions. Thus, the uncertainties in the forecasts are quite large. There is much that we don't know about space weather and this influences our forecasts. In this presentation, I will discuss the unique challenges that space weather forecasters face when explaining what we know and what we don't know about space weather events to customers and policy makers.

GRS evidence and the possibility of paleooceans on Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dohm, J.M.; Baker, V.R.; Boynton, W.V.; Fairen, A.G.; Ferris, J.C.; Finch, M.; Furfaro, R.; Hare, T.M.; Janes, D.M.; Kargel, J.S.; Karunatillake, S.; Keller, J.; Kerry, K.; Kim, K.J.; Komatsu, G.; Mahaney, W.C.; Schulze-Makuch, D.; Marinangeli, L.; Ori, G.G.; Ruiz, J.; Wheelock, S.J.

2009-01-01

The Gamma Ray Spectrometer (Mars Odyssey spacecraft) has revealed elemental distributions of potassium (K), thorium (Th), and iron (Fe) on Mars that require fractionation of K (and possibly Th and Fe) consistent with aqueous activity. This includes weathering, evolution of soils, and transport, sorting, and deposition, as well as with the location of first-order geomorphological demarcations identified as possible paleoocean boundaries. The element abundances occur in patterns consistent with weathering in situ and possible presence of relict or exhumed paleosols, deposition of weathered materials (salts and clastic minerals), and weathering/transport under neutral to acidic brines. The abundances are explained by hydrogeology consistent with the possibly overlapping alternatives of paleooceans and/or heterogeneous rock compositions from diverse provenances (e.g., differing igneous compositions). ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Science basis for changing forest structure to modify wildfire behavior and severity

Treesearch

Russell T. Graham; Sarah McCaffrey; Theresa B. Jain

2004-01-01

Fire, other disturbances, physical setting, weather, and climate shape the structure and function of forests throughout the Western United States. More than 80 years of fire research have shown that physical setting, fuels, and weather combine to determine wildfire intensity (the rate at which it consumes fuel) and severity (the effect fire has on vegetation, soils,...

A Comparison of Perturbed Initial Conditions and Multiphysics Ensembles in a Severe Weather Episode in Spain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tapiador, Francisco; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Angelis, Carlos F.; Martinez, Miguel A.; Cecilia Marcos; Antonio Rodriguez; Hou, Arthur; Jong Shi, Jain

2012-01-01

Ensembles of numerical model forecasts are of interest to operational early warning forecasters as the spread of the ensemble provides an indication of the uncertainty of the alerts, and the mean value is deemed to outperform the forecasts of the individual models. This paper explores two ensembles on a severe weather episode in Spain, aiming to ascertain the relative usefulness of each one. One ensemble uses sensible choices of physical parameterizations (precipitation microphysics, land surface physics, and cumulus physics) while the other follows a perturbed initial conditions approach. The results show that, depending on the parameterizations, large differences can be expected in terms of storm location, spatial structure of the precipitation field, and rain intensity. It is also found that the spread of the perturbed initial conditions ensemble is smaller than the dispersion due to physical parameterizations. This confirms that in severe weather situations operational forecasts should address moist physics deficiencies to realize the full benefits of the ensemble approach, in addition to optimizing initial conditions. The results also provide insights into differences in simulations arising from ensembles of weather models using several combinations of different physical parameterizations.

Win(d)-Win(d) Solutions for wind developers and bats

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hein, Cris; Schirmacher, Michael; Arnett, Ed

Bat Conservation International initiated a multi-year, pre-construction study in mid-summer 2009 to investigate patterns of bat activity and evaluate the use of acoustic monitoring to predict mortality of bats at the proposed Resolute Wind Energy Project (RWEP) in east-central Wyoming. The primary objectives of this study were to: (1) determine levels and patterns of activity for three phonic groups of bats (high-frequency emitting bats, low-frequency emitting bats, and hoary bats) using the proposed wind facility prior to construction of turbines; (2) determine if bat activity can be predicted based on weather patterns; correlate bat activity with weather variables; and (3)more » combine results from this study with those from similar efforts to determine if indices of pre-construction bat activity can be used to predict post-construction bat fatalities at proposed wind facilities. We report results from two years of pre-construction data collection.« less

Convective weather hazards in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, MN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blumenfeld, Kenneth A.

This dissertation investigates the frequency and intensity of severe convective storms, and their associated hazards, in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA), Minnesota. Using public severe weather reports databases and high spatial density rain gauge data, annual frequencies and return-periods are calculated for tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flood-inducing rainfall. The hypothesis that severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are less likely in the central TCMA than in surrounding areas also is examined, and techniques for estimating 100-year rainfall amounts are developed and discussed. This research finds that: (i) storms capable of significant damage somewhere within the TCMA recur annually (sometimes multiple times per year), while storms virtually certain to cause such damage recur every 2-3 years; (ii) though severe weather reports data are not amenable to classical comparative statistical testing, careful treatment of them suggests all types and intensity categories of severe convective weather have been and should continue to be approximately as common in the central TCMA as in surrounding areas; and (iii) applications of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics and areal analyses of rainfall data lead to significantly larger (25-50%) estimates of 100-year rainfall amounts in the TCMA and parts of Minnesota than those currently published and used for precipitation design. The growth of the TCMA, the popular sentiment that downtown areas somehow deter severe storms and tornadoes, and the prior underestimation of extreme rainfall thresholds for precipitation design, all act to enhance local susceptibility to hazards from severe convective storms.

Factoring in weather variation to capture the influence of urban design and built environment on globally recommended levels of moderate to vigorous physical activity in children

PubMed Central

Katapally, Tarun Reddy; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2015-01-01

Objectives In curbing physical inactivity, as behavioural interventions directed at individuals have not produced a population-level change, an ecological perspective called active living research has gained prominence. However, active living research consistently underexplores the role played by a perennial phenomenon encompassing all other environmental exposures—variation in weather. After factoring in weather variation, this study investigated the influence of diverse environmental exposures (including urban design and built environment) on the accumulation of globally recommended moderate to vigorous physical activity levels (MVPA) in children. Design This cross-sectional observational study is part of an active living initiative set in the Canadian prairie city of Saskatoon. As part of this study, Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified based on urban street design into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear types of neighbourhoods. Moreover, diverse environmental exposures were measured including, neighbourhood built environment, and neighbourhood and household socioeconomic environment. Actical accelerometers were deployed between April and June 2010 (spring-summer) to derive MVPA of 331 10–14-year-old children in 25 1-week cycles. Each cycle of accelerometry was conducted on a different cohort of children within the total sample and matched with weather data obtained from Environment Canada. Multilevel modelling using Hierarchical Linear and Non-linear Modelling software was conducted by factoring in weather variation to depict the influence of diverse environmental exposures on the accumulation of recommended MVPA. Results Urban design, including diversity of destinations within neighbourhoods played a significant role in the accumulation of MVPA. After factoring in weather variation, it was observed that children living in neighbourhoods closer to the city centre (with higher diversity of destinations) were more likely to accumulate recommended MVPA. Conclusions The findings indicate that after factoring in weather variation, certain types of urban design are more likely to be associated with MVPA accumulation. PMID:26621516