The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 1: Model description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, R.; Martin, M. A.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

2011-09-01

We present the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to be used for simulations of large-scale ice sheet-shelf systems. It is derived from the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (Bueler and Brown, 2009). Velocities are calculated by superposition of two shallow stress balance approximations within the entire ice covered region: the shallow ice approximation (SIA) is dominant in grounded regions and accounts for shear deformation parallel to the geoid. The plug-flow type shallow shelf approximation (SSA) dominates the velocity field in ice shelf regions and serves as a basal sliding velocity in grounded regions. Ice streams can be identified diagnostically as regions with a significant contribution of membrane stresses to the local momentum balance. All lateral boundaries in PISM-PIK are free to evolve, including the grounding line and ice fronts. Ice shelf margins in particular are modeled using Neumann boundary conditions for the SSA equations, reflecting a hydrostatic stress imbalance along the vertical calving face. The ice front position is modeled using a subgrid-scale representation of calving front motion (Albrecht et al., 2011) and a physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates. The model is tested in experiments from the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP). A dynamic equilibrium simulation of Antarctica under present-day conditions is presented in Martin et al. (2011).

The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.

2015-12-01

Fluctuations in the mass of ice stored in Antarctica and Greenland are of considerable societal importance. The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise (IMBIE) is a joint-initiative of ESA and NASA aimed at producing a single estimate of the global sea level contribution to polar ice sheet losses. Within IMBIE, estimates of ice sheet mass balance are developed from a variety of satellite geodetic techniques using a common spatial and temporal reference frame and a common appreciation of the contributions due to external signals. The project brings together the laboratories and space agencies that have been instrumental in developing independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance to date. In its first phase, IMBIE involved 27 science teams, and delivered a first community assessment of ice sheet mass imbalance to replace 40 individual estimates. The project established that (i) there is good agreement between the three main satellite-based techniques for estimating ice sheet mass balance, (ii) combining satellite data sets leads to significant improvement in certainty, (iii) the polar ice sheets contributed 11 ± 4 mm to global sea levels between 1992 and 2012, and (iv) that combined ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have increased over time, rising from 10% of the global trend in the early 1990's to 30% in the late 2000's. Demand for an updated assessment has grown, and there are now new satellite missions, new geophysical corrections, new techniques, and new teams producing data. The period of overlap between independent satellite techniques has increased from 5 to 12 years, and the full period of satellite data over which an assessment can be performed has increased from 19 to 40 years. It is also clear that multiple satellite techniques are required to confidently separate mass changes associated with snowfall and ice dynamical imbalance - information that is of critical importance for climate modelling. This presentation outlines the approach for the second phase of IMBIE, including the project organisation, the work programme and schedule, the main science goals, and its current status, and reviews the recent and historical contributions that the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have made to global sea level rise.

The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 1: Model description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, R.; Martin, M. A.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

2010-08-01

We present the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to be used for simulations of large-scale ice sheet-shelf systems. It is derived from the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (Bueler and Brown, 2009). Velocities are calculated by superposition of two shallow stress balance approximations within the entire ice covered region: the shallow ice approximation (SIA) is dominant in grounded regions and accounts for shear deformation parallel to the geoid. The plug-flow type shallow shelf approximation (SSA) dominates the velocity field in ice shelf regions and serves as a basal sliding velocity in grounded regions. Ice streams naturally emerge through this approach and can be identified diagnostically as regions with a significant contribution of membrane stresses to the local momentum balance. All lateral boundaries in PISM-PIK are free to evolve, including the grounding line and ice fronts. Ice shelf margins in particular are modeled using Neumann boundary conditions for the SSA equations, reflecting a hydrostatic stress imbalance along the vertical calving face. The ice front position is modeled using a subgrid scale representation of calving front motion (Albrecht et al., 2010) and a physically motivated dynamic calving law based on horizontal spreading rates. The model is validated within the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP) and is used for a dynamic equilibrium simulation of Antarctica under present-day conditions in the second part of this paper (Martin et al., 2010).

LIVVkit 2: An extensible land ice verification and validation toolkit for comparing observations and models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, J. H.; Bennett, A. R.; Evans, K. J.; Fyke, J. G.; Vargo, L.; Price, S. F.; Hoffman, M. J.

2016-12-01

Accurate representation of ice sheets and glaciers are essential for robust predictions of arctic climate within Earth System models. Verification and Validation (V&V) is a set of techniques used to quantify the correctness and accuracy of a model, which builds developer/modeler confidence, and can be used to enhance the credibility of the model. Fundamentally, V&V is a continuous process because each model change requires a new round of V&V testing. The Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) development community is actively developing LIVVkit, the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit, which is designed to easily integrate into an ice-sheet model's development workflow (on both personal and high-performance computers) to provide continuous V&V testing.LIVVkit is a robust and extensible python package for V&V, which has components for both software V&V (construction and use) and model V&V (mathematics and physics). The model Verification component is used, for example, to verify model results against community intercomparisons such as ISMIP-HOM. The model validation component is used, for example, to generate a series of diagnostic plots showing the differences between model results against observations for variables such as thickness, surface elevation, basal topography, surface velocity, surface mass balance, etc. Because many different ice-sheet models are under active development, new validation datasets are becoming available, and new methods of analysing these models are actively being researched, LIVVkit includes a framework to easily extend the model V&V analyses by ice-sheet modelers. This allows modelers and developers to develop evaluations of parameters, implement changes, and quickly see how those changes effect the ice-sheet model and earth system model (when coupled). Furthermore, LIVVkit outputs a portable hierarchical website allowing evaluations to be easily shared, published, and analysed throughout the arctic and Earth system communities.

The Cryosphere Model Comparison Tool (CmCt): Ice Sheet Model Validation and Comparison Tool for Greenland and Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, E.; Nowicki, S.; Neumann, T.; Tyahla, L.; Saba, J. L.; Guerber, J. R.; Bonin, J. A.; DiMarzio, J. P.

2017-12-01

The Cryosphere model Comparison tool (CmCt) is a web based ice sheet model validation tool that is being developed by NASA to facilitate direct comparison between observational data and various ice sheet models. The CmCt allows the user to take advantage of several decades worth of observations from Greenland and Antarctica. Currently, the CmCt can be used to compare ice sheet models provided by the user with remotely sensed satellite data from ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry, GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite, and radar altimetry (ERS-1, ERS-2, and Envisat). One or more models can be uploaded through the CmCt website and compared with observational data, or compared to each other or other models. The CmCt calculates statistics on the differences between the model and observations, and other quantitative and qualitative metrics, which can be used to evaluate the different model simulations against the observations. The qualitative metrics consist of a range of visual outputs and the quantitative metrics consist of several whole-ice-sheet scalar values that can be used to assign an overall score to a particular simulation. The comparison results from CmCt are useful in quantifying improvements within a specific model (or within a class of models) as a result of differences in model dynamics (e.g., shallow vs. higher-order dynamics approximations), model physics (e.g., representations of ice sheet rheological or basal processes), or model resolution (mesh resolution and/or changes in the spatial resolution of input datasets). The framework and metrics could also be used for use as a model-to-model intercomparison tool, simply by swapping outputs from another model as the observational datasets. Future versions of the tool will include comparisons with other datasets that are of interest to the modeling community, such as ice velocity, ice thickness, and surface mass balance.

Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojian

The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water production from CMIP5 data with the model by assuming that the Greenland Ice Sheet is covered in black carbon (lowering the albedo) and perpetually covered by optically thick clouds (increasing long wave radiation). This upper bound roughly triples surface meltwater production, resulting in 30 cm of sea level rise by 2100. These model estimates, combined with prior research suggesting an additional 40-100 cm of sea level rise associated with dynamical discharge, suggest that the Greenland Ice Sheet is poised to contribute significantly to sea level rise in the coming century.

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haywood, Alan; Dowsett, Harry; Dolan, Aisling; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark; Hunter, Stephen; Lunt, Daniel; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-04-01

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate, and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilised for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilise state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land/ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

Trends in ice sheet mass balance, 1992 to 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.; Smith, B.; Velicogna, I.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Rignot, E. J.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Briggs, K.; Hogg, A.; Krinner, G.; Joughin, I. R.; Nowicki, S.; Payne, A. J.; Scambos, T.; Schlegel, N.; Moyano, G.; Konrad, H.

2017-12-01

The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise (IMBIE) is a community effort, jointly supported by ESA and NASA, that aims to provide a consensus estimate of ice sheet mass balance from satellite gravimetry, altimetry and mass budget assessments, on an annual basis. The project has five experiment groups, one for each of the satellite techniques and two others to analyse surface mass balance (SMB) and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The basic premise for the exercise is that individual ice sheet mass balance datasets are generated by project participants using common spatial and temporal domains to allow meaningful inter-comparison, and this controlled comparison in turn supports aggregation of the individual datasets over their full period. Participation is open to the full community, and the quality and consistency of submissions is regulated through a series of data standards and documentation requirements. The second phase of IMBIE commenced in 2015, with participant data submitted in 2016 and a combined estimate due for public release in 2017. Data from 48 participant groups were submitted to one of the three satellite mass balance technique groups or to the ancillary dataset groups. The individual mass balance estimates and ancillary datasets have been compared and combined within the respective groups. Following this, estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from the individual techniques were then compared and combined. The result is single estimates of ice sheet mass balance for Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula. The participants, methodology and results of the exercise will be presented in this paper.

Comparison of modelled runoff with observed proglacial discharge across the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, S.; Rennermalm, A.; van As, D.; Overeem, I.; Tedesco, M.; Mote, T. L.; Koenig, L.; Smith, L. C.; Hagedorn, B.; Sletten, R. S.; Mikkelsen, A. B.; Hasholt, B.; Hall, D. K.; Fettweis, X.; Pitcher, L. H.; Hubbard, A.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet surface ablation now dominates its total mass loss contributions to sea-level rise. Despite the increasing importance of Greenland's sea-level contribution, a quantitative inter-comparison between modeled and measured melt, runoff and discharge across multiple drainage basins is conspicuously lacking. Here we investigate the accuracy of model discharge estimates from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR v3.5.2) regional climate model by comparison with in situ proglacial river discharge measurements at three West Greenland drainage basins - North River (Thule), Watson River (Kangerlussuaq), and Naujat Kuat River (Nuuk). At each target catchment, we: 1) determine optimal drainage basin delineations; 2) assess primary drivers of melt; 3) evaluate MAR at daily, 5-, 10- and 20-day time scales; and 4) identify potential sources for model-observation discrepancies. Our results reveal that MAR resolves daily discharge variability poorly in the Nuuk and Thule basins (r2 = 0.4-0.5), but does capture variability over 5-, 10-, and 20-day means (r2 > 0.7). Model agreement with river flow data, though, is reduced during periods of peak discharge, particularly for the exceptional melt and discharge events of July 2012. Daily discharge is best captured by MAR across the Watson River basin, whilst there is lower correspondence between modeled and observed discharge at the Thule and Naujat Kuat River basins. We link the main source of model error to an underestimation of cloud cover, overestimation of surface albedo, and apparent warm bias in near-surface air temperatures. For future inter-comparison, we recommend using observations from catchments that have a self-contained and well-defined drainage area and an accurate discharge record over variable years coincident with a reliable automatic weather station record. Our study highlights the importance of improving MAR modeled surface albedo, cloud cover representation, and delay functions to reduce model error and to improve prediction of Greenland's future runoff contribution to global sea level rise.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, Andrew J.; Sedláček, Jan; Eby, Michael; Alexander, Kaitlin; Crespin, Elisabeth; Fichefet, Thierry; Philippon-Berthier, Gwenaëlle; Joos, Fortunat; Kawamiya, Michio; Matsumoto, Katsumi; Steinacher, Marco; Tachiiri, Kaoru; Tokos, Kathy; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2012-10-01

The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%-25% 5%-95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%-30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%-35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%-44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°-32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 40% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for the duration of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.

Results from ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1, two interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, X.; Galton-Fenzi, B.; Gwyther, D.; Jourdain, N.; Martin, D. F.; Nakayama, Y.; Seroussi, H. L.

2016-12-01

MISMIP+ (the third Marine Ice Sheet MIP), ISOMIP+ (the second Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP) and MISOMIP1 (the first Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean MIP) prescribe a set of idealized experiments for marine ice-sheet models, ocean models with ice-shelf cavities, and coupled ice sheet-ocean models, respectively. Here, we present results from ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1 experiments using several ocean-only and coupled ice sheet-ocean models. Among the ocean models, we show that differences in model behavior are significant enough that similar results can only be achieved by tuning model parameters (the heat- and salt-transfer coefficients across the sub-ice-shelf boundary layer) for each model. This tuning is constrained by a desired mean melt rate in quasi-steady state under specified forcing conditions, akin to tuning the models to match observed melt rates. We compare the evolution of ocean temperature transects, melt rate, friction velocity and thermal driving between ocean models for the five ISOMIP+ experiments (Ocean0-4), which have prescribed ice-shelf topography. We find that melt patterns differ between models based on the relative importance of overturning strength and vertical mixing of temperature even when the models have been tuned to achieve similar melt rates near the grounding line. For the two MISOMIP1 experiments (IceOcean1 without dynamic calving and IceOcean2 with a simple calving parameterization), we compare temperature transects, melt rate, ice-shelf topography and grounded area across models and for several model configurations. Consistent with preliminary results from MISMIP+, we find that for a given coupled model, the use of a Coulomb-limited basal friction parameterization below grounded ice and the application of dynamic calving both significantly increase the rate of grounding-line retreat, whereas the rate of retreat appears to be less sensitive to the ice stress approximation (shallow-shelf approximation, higher-order, etc.). We show that models with similar mean melt rates, stress approximations and basal friction parameterizations produce markedly different rates of grounding-line retreat, and we investigate possible sources of these disparities (e.g. differences in coupling strategy or melt distribution).

Agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project: Overview of model intercomparisons

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improvement of crop simulation models to better estimate growth and yield is one of the objectives of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The overall goal of AgMIP is to provide an assessment of crop model through rigorous intercomparisons and evaluate future clim...

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-03-01

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land-ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew;

PRISM4: Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping mid Piacenzian paleoenvironmental reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dowsett, H. J.; Dolan, A. M.; Rowley, D. B.; Moucha, R.; Forte, A. M.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Pound, M. J.; Salzmann, U.; Robinson, M. M.; Chandler, M. A.; Foley, K.; Haywood, A.

2016-12-01

Past Intervals in Earth history provide unique windows into conditions much different than those observed today. We investigated the paleoenvironments of a past warm interval in the mid Piacenzian ( 3 million years ago). The PRISM4 reconstruction contains twelve internally consistent and integrated data sets representing our best synoptic understanding of surface temperature, vegetation, soils, lakes, ice sheets, topography, and bathymetry. Starting points in the generation of our Piacenzian reconstruction are basic geochemical, faunal, floral, soil, cryospheric, topographic, bathymetric, sedimentologic, and stratigraphic data. Marine and terrestral temperature estimates are based upon multiple proxies (including faunal, floral, geochemical, and biomarker analyses). The reconstruction of Piacenzian global vegetation is based on the integration of paleobotanical data and BIOME4 model outputs. Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are derived from the previous PRISM3 and PLISMIP (Pliocene Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project) results, respectively. Paleogeography is based upon an initial ETOPO1 digital elevation model incorporating PRISM4 ice sheets, GIA, and adjustments due to mantle convection. Soils are determined through comparison of sedimentological and stratigraphic data with the BIOME reconstruction. Lakes are determined from stratigraphic and sedimentological data. Sea-level equivalent (+20 m) is estimated from the reduced volume of the PRISM4 ice sheets and is consistent with our PRISM4 paleogeography. While not an analog for future conditions, the PRISM4 conceptual reconstruction provides insights into processes that occurred in the past and can inform us about the future. We will discuss the use of these data as boundary conditions and verification for global climate model simulations of the Pliocene, aimed at improving our understanding of the climate system as we prepare for future changes.

Modelling the climate and ice sheets of the mid-Pliocene warm period: a test of model dependency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, Aisling; Haywood, Alan; Lunt, Daniel; Hill, Daniel

2010-05-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; c. 3.0 - 3.3 million years ago) has been the subject of a large number of published studies during the last decade. It is an interval in Earth history, where conditions were similar to those predicted by climate models for the end of the 21st Century. Not only is it important to increase our understanding of the climate dynamics in a warmer world, it is also important to determine exactly how well numerical models can retrodict a climate significantly different from the present day, in order to have confidence in them for predicting the future climate. Previous General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have indicated that MPWP mean annual surface temperatures were on average 2 to 3˚C warmer than the pre-industrial era. Coastal stratigraphy and benthic oxygen isotope records suggest that terrestrial ice volumes were reduced when compared to modern. Ice sheet modelling studies have supported this decrease in cryospheric extent. Generally speaking, both climate and ice sheet modelling studies have only used results from one numerical model when simulating the climate of the MPWP. However, recent projects such as PMIP (the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) have emphasised the need to explore the dependency of past climate predictions on the specific climate model which is used. Here we present a comparison of MPWP climatologies produced by three atmosphere only GCMs from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (GCMAM3, CAM3-CLM and HadAM3 respectively). We focus on the ability of the GCMs to simulate climate fields needed to drive an offline ice sheet model to assess whether there are any significant differences between the climatologies. By taking the different temperature and precipitation predictions simulated by the three models as a forcing, and adopting GCM-specific topography, we have used the British Antarctic Survey thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model (BASISM) to test the extent to which equilibrium state ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere are GCM dependent. Initial results which do not use GCM-specific topography suggest that employing different GCM climatologies with only small differences in surface air temperature and precipitation has a dramatic effect on the resultant Greenland ice sheet, where the end-member ice sheets vary from near modern to almost zero ice volume. As an extension of this analysis, we will also present results using a second ice sheet model (Glimmer), with a view to testing the degree to which end-member ice sheets are ice sheet model dependent, something which has not previously been addressed. Initially, BASISM and Glimmer will be internally optimised for performance, but we will also present a comparison where BASISM will be configured to the Glimmer model setup in a further test of ice sheet model dependency.

Sensitivity of grounding line dynamics to basal conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagliardini, O.; Brondex, J.; Chauveau, G.; Gillet-chaulet, F.; Durand, G.

2017-12-01

In the context of a warming climate, the dynamical contribution of Antarctica to future sea level rise is still tainted by high uncertainties. Among the processes entering these uncertainties is the link between basal hydrology, friction and grounding line dynamics. Recent works have shown how sensitive is the response of the grounding line retreat to the choice of the form of the friction law. Indeed, starting from the same initial state, grounding line retreat rates can range over almost two orders of magnitude depending on the friction law formulation.Here, we use a phenomenological law that depends on the water pressure and allows a continuous transition from a Weertman-type friction at low water pressure to a Coulomb-type friction at high water pressure. This friction law depends on two main parameters that control the Weertman and Coulomb regimes. The range of values for these two parameters is only weakly physically constrained, and it can be shown that, for a given basal shear stress, different couples of parameters can conduct to the same sliding velocity. In addition, we show that close to the grounding line where basal water pressure is high, determining these two parameters might conduct to an ill-posed inverse problem with no solution.The aim of this presentation is to discuss a methodology to guide the choice of the two friction parameters and explore the sensitivity of the grounding line dynamics to this initial choice. We present results obtained both on a synthetic configuration used by the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison exercise and for the Amundsen sea sector using the experiments proposed by InitMIP-Antarctica, the first exercise in a series of ISMIP6 ice-sheet model intercomparison activities.

RESULTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MERCURY MODEL INTER-COMPARISON STUDY (NAMMIS)

EPA Science Inventory

A North American Mercury Model Intercomparison Study (NAMMIS) has been conducted to build upon the findings from previous mercury model intercomparison in Europe. In the absence of mercury measurement networks sufficient for model evaluation, model developers continue to rely on...

Anisotropic mesh adaptation for marine ice-sheet modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Tavard, Laure; Merino, Nacho; Peyaud, Vincent; Brondex, Julien; Durand, Gael; Gagliardini, Olivier

2017-04-01

Improving forecasts of ice-sheets contribution to sea-level rise requires, amongst others, to correctly model the dynamics of the grounding line (GL), i.e. the line where the ice detaches from its underlying bed and goes afloat on the ocean. Many numerical studies, including the intercomparison exercises MISMIP and MISMIP3D, have shown that grid refinement in the GL vicinity is a key component to obtain reliable results. Improving model accuracy while maintaining the computational cost affordable has then been an important target for the development of marine icesheet models. Adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is a method where the accuracy of the solution is controlled by spatially adapting the mesh size. It has become popular in models using the finite element method as they naturally deal with unstructured meshes, but block-structured AMR has also been successfully applied to model GL dynamics. The main difficulty with AMR is to find efficient and reliable estimators of the numerical error to control the mesh size. Here, we use the estimator proposed by Frey and Alauzet (2015). Based on the interpolation error, it has been found effective in practice to control the numerical error, and has some flexibility, such as its ability to combine metrics for different variables, that makes it attractive. Routines to compute the anisotropic metric defining the mesh size have been implemented in the finite element ice flow model Elmer/Ice (Gagliardini et al., 2013). The mesh adaptation is performed using the freely available library MMG (Dapogny et al., 2014) called from Elmer/Ice. Using a setup based on the inter-comparison exercise MISMIP+ (Asay-Davis et al., 2016), we study the accuracy of the solution when the mesh is adapted using various variables (ice thickness, velocity, basal drag, …). We show that combining these variables allows to reduce the number of mesh nodes by more than one order of magnitude, for the same numerical accuracy, when compared to uniform mesh refinement. For transient solutions where the GL is moving, we have implemented an algorithm where the computation is reiterated allowing to anticipate the GL displacement and to adapt the mesh to the transient solution. We discuss the performance and robustness of this algorithm.

The agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation research activity for historical period model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural economic model groups around the...

Intercomparison of granular stress and turbulence models for unidirectional sheet flow applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chauchat, J.; Cheng, Z.; Hsu, T. J.

2016-12-01

The intergranular stresses are one of the key elements in two-phase sediment transport models. There are two main existing approaches, the kinetic theory of granular flows (Jenkins and Hanes, 1998; Hsu et al., 2004) and the phenomenological rheology such as the one proposed by Bagnold (Hanes and Bowen, 1985) or the μ(I) dense granular flow rheology (Revil-Baudard and Chauchat, 2013). Concerning the turbulent Reynolds stress, mixing length and k-ɛ turbulence models have been validated by previous studies (Revil-Baudard and Chauchat, 2013; Hsu et al., 2004). Recently, sedFoam was developed based on kinetic theory of granular flows and k-ɛ turbulence models (Cheng and Hsu, 2014). In this study, we further extended sedFoam by implementing the mixing length and the dense granular flow rheology by following Revil-Baudard and Chauchat (2013). This allows us to objectively compare the different combinations of intergranular stresses (kinetic theory or the dense granular flow rheology) and turbulence models (mixing length or k-ɛ) under unidirectional sheet flow conditions. We found that the calibrated mixing length and k-ɛ models predicts similar velocity and concentration profiles. The differences observed between the kinetic theory and the dense granular flow rheology requires further investigation. In particular, we hypothesize that the extended kinetic theory proposed by Berzi (2011) would probably improve the existing combination of the kinetic theory with a simple Coulomb frictional model in sedFoam. A semi-analytical solution proposed by Berzi and Fraccarollo(2013) for sediment transport rate and sheet layer thickness versus the Shields number is compared with the results obtained by using the dense granular flow rheology and the mixing length model. The results are similar which demonstrate that both the extended kinetic theory and the dense granular flow rheology can be used to model intergranular stresses under sheet flow conditions.

Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, Ruza; Gregoire, Lauren; Kageyama, Masa; Roche, Didier; Valdes, Paul; Burke, Andrea; Drummond, Rosemarie; Peltier, W. Richard; Tarasov, Lev

2016-04-01

The last deglaciation, which marked the transition between the last glacial and present interglacial periods, was punctuated by a series of rapid (centennial and decadal) climate changes. Numerical climate models are useful for investigating mechanisms that underpin the events, especially now that some of the complex models can be run for multiple millennia. We have set up a Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) working group to coordinate efforts to run transient simulations of the last deglaciation, and to facilitate the dissemination of expertise between modellers and those engaged with reconstructing the climate of the last 21 thousand years. Here, we present the design of a coordinated Core simulation over the period 21-9 thousand years before present (ka) with time varying orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and other geographical changes. A choice of two ice sheet reconstructions is given. Additional focussed simulations will also be coordinated on an ad-hoc basis by the working group, for example to investigate the effect of ice sheet and iceberg meltwater, and the uncertainty in other forcings. Some of these focussed simulations will concentrate on shorter durations around specific events to allow the more computationally expensive models to take part. Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., Kageyama, M., Roche, D. M., Valdes, P. J., Burke, A., Drummond, R., Peltier, W. R., and Tarasov, L.: Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 9045-9102, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-9045-2015, 2015.

Evaluation of the Surface Representation of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Zhao, Bin; Suarez, Max J.

2014-01-01

Simulated surface conditions of the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are examined for the contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). A surface parameterization that explicitly models surface processes including snow compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, and surface albedo is found to remedy an erroneous deficit in the annual net surface energy flux and provide an adequate representation of surface mass balance (SMB) in an evaluation using simulations at two spatial resolutions. The simulated 1980-2008 GrIS SMB average is 24.7+/-4.5 cm yr(- 1) water-equivalent (w.e.) at.5 degree model grid spacing, and 18.2+/-3.3 cm yr(- 1) w.e. for 2 degree grid spacing. The spatial variability and seasonal cycle of the simulation compare favorably to recent studies using regional climate models, while results from 2 degree integrations reproduce the primary features of the SMB field. In comparison to historical glaciological observations, the coarser resolution model overestimates accumulation in the southern areas of the GrIS, while the overall SMB is underestimated. These changes relate to the sensitivity of accumulation and melt to the resolution of topography. The GEOS-5 SMB fields contrast with available corresponding atmospheric models simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that only a few of the CMIP5 AGCMs examined provide significant summertime runoff, a dominant feature of the GrIS seasonal cycle. This is a condition that will need to be remedied if potential contributions to future eustatic change from polar ice sheets are to be examined with GCMs.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): Experimental Design and Boundary Conditions (Experiment 2)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Robinson, M. M.; Stoll, D. K.; Dolan, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M. A.

2011-01-01

The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilizes fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Robinson, M.M.; Stoll, D.K.; Dolan, A.M.; Lunt, D.J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M.A.

2011-01-01

The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere-only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilises fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

Variability in Annual and Average Mass Changes in Antarctica from 2004 to 2009 using Satellite Laser Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babonis, G. S.; Csatho, B. M.; Schenk, A. F.

2016-12-01

We present a new record of Antarctic ice thickness changes, reconstructed from ICESat laser altimetry observations, from 2004-2009, at over 100,000 locations across the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). This work generates elevation time series at ICESat groundtrack crossover regions on an observation-by-observation basis, with rigorous, quantified, error estimates using the SERAC approach (Schenk and Csatho, 2012). The results include average and annual elevation, volume and mass changes in Antarctica, fully corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and known intercampaign biases; and partitioned into contributions from surficial processes (e.g. firn densification) and ice dynamics. The modular flexibility of the SERAC framework allows for the assimilation of multiple ancillary datasets (e.g. GIA models, Intercampaign Bias Corrections, IBC), in a common framework, to calculate mass changes for several different combinations of GIA models and IBCs and to arrive at a measure of variability from these results. We are able to determine the effect these corrections have on annual and average volume and mass change calculations in Antarctica, and to explore how these differences vary between drainage basins and with elevation. As such, this contribution presents a method that compliments, and is consistent with, the 2012 Ice sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) results (Shepherd 2012). Additionally, this work will contribute to the 2016 IMBIE, which seeks to reconcile ice sheet mass changes from different observations,, including laser altimetry, using a different methodologies and ancillary datasets including GIA models, Firn Densification Models, and Intercampaign Bias Corrections.

Low-cost solar array project: Four absolute cavity radiometer (pyrheliometer) intercomparisons at New River, Arizona: Radiometer standards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estey, R. S.; Seaman, C. H.

1981-01-01

Four detailed intercomparisons were made for a number of models of cavity-type self-calibrating radiometers (pyrheliometers). Each intercomparison consisted of simultaneous readings of pyrheliometers at 30-second intervals in runs of 10 minutes, with at least 15 runs per intercomparison. Twenty-seven instruments were in at least one intercomparison, and five were in all four. Summarized results and all raw data are provided from the intercomparisons.

Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

1995-01-01

In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Dolan, A. M.; Rowley, D.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M. A.; Hunter, S. J.; Lunt, D. J.; Pound, M.;

Recent Changes in Ices Mass Balance of the Amundsen Sea Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutterley, T. C.; Velicogna, I.; Rignot, E. J.; Mouginot, J.; Flament, T.; van den Broeke, M. R.; van Wessem, M.; Reijmer, C.

2014-12-01

The glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) sector of West Antarctica were confirmed in the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) to be the dominant contributors to the current Antarctic ice mass loss, and recently recognized to be undergoing marine ice sheet instability. Here, we investigate their regional ice mass balance using a time series of satellite and airborne data combined with model output products from the Regional Atmospheric and Climate Model (RACMO). Our dataset includes laser altimetry from NASA's ICESat-1 satellite mission and from Operation IceBridge (OIB) airborne surveys, satellite radar altimetry data from ESA's Envisat mission, time-variable gravity data from NASA/DLR's GRACE mission, surface mass balance products from RACMO, ice velocity from a combination of international synthetic aperture radar satellites and ice thickness data from OIB. We find a record of ice mass balance for the ASE where all the analyzed techniques agree remarkably in magnitude and temporal variability. The mass loss of the region has been increasing continuously since 1992, with no indication of a slow down. The mass loss during the common period averaged 91 Gt/yr and accelerated 20 Gt/yr2. In 1992-2013, the ASE contributed 4.5 mm global sea level rise. Overall, our results demonstrate the synergy of multiple analysis techniques for examining Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance at the regional scale. This work was performed at UCI and JPL under a contract with NASA.

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

PubMed Central

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Müller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay; Neumann, Kathleen; Piontek, Franziska; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin; Stehfest, Elke; Yang, Hong; Jones, James W.

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. PMID:24344314

Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

2014-01-01

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

Antarctic glaciations under Pliocene climate conditions from numerical modeling and compilation of local field-based reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernales, Jorge; Rogozhina, Irina; Greve, Ralf

2014-05-01

The mid-Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million years before present) is the most recent period in Earth's history when temperatures and CO2 concentrations were likely sustainedly higher than pre-industrial values. Furthermore, the positions of the continents and their sea-land distributions had already reached their present configuration, sharing some similarities with today's patterns of ocean circulation and vegetation distributions. Although significant differences exist -such as a peak sea level that could have been 22 ± 10 m higher than it is today and sea surface temperatures particularly warmer at higher latitudes, mid-Pliocene has been identified as an ideal interval for studying the climate system under conditions similar to those projected for the end of this century. Among the sources of uncertainty in the projections, the response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to warmer-than-today conditions seems to play a central role. Therefore, a better understanding of AIS's behavior during periods like the mid-Pliocene will provide valuable information that could help improve future predictions. For this purpose, we have compiled a wide range of local field-based reconstructions of the ice-sheet margin from Pliocene sediments (with the inclusions of organic matters such as, for instance, diatoms or palynoflora, or ice rafted debris), geochemical records, volcanic ashes and rocks, and geomorphology, and designed numerical experiments of the AIS dynamics during the mid-Pliocene warm period using the large-scale polythermal ice sheet-shelf model SICOPOLIS (Greve, 1997 [1]; Sato and Greve, 2012 [2]). The model is run with a horizontal resolution of 40 × 40 km by the climatology obtained from the PlioMIP Atmosphere Ocean Global Circulation Model experiments (Dolan et al., 2012 [3]). Parameters of the AIS model (e.g. ice calving, sub-ice shelf and surface ice melt, basal sliding, etc.) have initially been estimated using ice-sheet simulations driven by the present-day climate and ocean conditions and calibrated against available remote-sensed and in-situ observations. In our Pliocene experiments, we employ alternative parameterizations of sub-ice shelf and ice surface melting processes to test the likelihood of numerous controversial theories and reconstructions arguing for or against significant retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet from the coasts (locally up to 450 km) in the mid-Pliocene. Finally, we assess the sensitivity of the modeled West Antarctic/Antarctic Peninsula ice geometry to the above parameters and emphasize a crucial role of surface mass balance model parameters in modeling the Pliocene ice sheet configuration in agreement with existing reconstructions on a regional scale. References [1] Greve, R. (1997). Application of a polythermal three-dimensional ice sheet model to the Greenland ice sheet: response to steady-state and transient climate scenarios. Journal of Climate, 10(5), 901-918. [2] Sato, T., and Greve, R. (2012). Sensitivity experiments for the Antarctic ice sheet with varied sub-ice-shelf melting rates. Annals of Glaciology, 53(60), 221-228. [3] Dolan, A. M., Koenig, S. J., Hill, D. J., Haywood, A. M., and DeConto, R. M. (2012). Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP)-experimental design. Geoscientific Model Development, 5(4), 963-974.

The projected demise of Barnes Ice Cap: Evidence of an unusually warm 21st century Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilbert, A.; Flowers, G. E.; Miller, G. H.; Refsnider, K. A.; Young, N. E.; Radić, V.

2017-03-01

As a remnant of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, Barnes Ice Cap owes its existence and present form in part to the climate of the last glacial period. The ice cap has been sustained in the present interglacial climate by its own topography through the mass balance-elevation feedback. A coupled mass balance and ice-flow model, forced by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model output, projects that the current ice cap will likely disappear in the next 300 years. For greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways of +2.6 to +8.5 Wm-2, the projected ice-cap survival times range from 150 to 530 years. Measured concentrations of cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be, 26Al, and 14C at sites exposed near the ice-cap margin suggest the pending disappearance of Barnes Ice Cap is very unusual in the last million years. The data and models together point to an exceptionally warm 21st century Arctic climate.

Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robock, Alan

2015-03-30

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates frommore » gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming.« less

INTERCOMPARISON STUDY OF ATMOSPHERIC MERCURY MODELS: 1. COMPARISON OF MODELS WITH SHORT-TERM MEASUREMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Five regional scale models with a horizontal domain covering the European continent and its surrounding seas, one hemispheric and one global scale model participated in an atmospheric mercury modelling intercomparison study. Model-predicted concentrations in ambient air were comp...

Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present (version 1) - PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Gregoire, Lauren J.; Kageyama, Masa; Roche, Didier M.; Valdes, Paul J.; Burke, Andrea; Drummond, Rosemarie; Peltier, W. Richard; Tarasov, Lev

2016-07-01

The last deglaciation, which marked the transition between the last glacial and present interglacial periods, was punctuated by a series of rapid (centennial and decadal) climate changes. Numerical climate models are useful for investigating mechanisms that underpin the climate change events, especially now that some of the complex models can be run for multiple millennia. We have set up a Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) working group to coordinate efforts to run transient simulations of the last deglaciation, and to facilitate the dissemination of expertise between modellers and those engaged with reconstructing the climate of the last 21 000 years. Here, we present the design of a coordinated Core experiment over the period 21-9 thousand years before present (ka) with time-varying orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, ice sheets and other geographical changes. A choice of two ice sheet reconstructions is given, and we make recommendations for prescribing ice meltwater (or not) in the Core experiment. Additional focussed simulations will also be coordinated on an ad hoc basis by the working group, for example to investigate more thoroughly the effect of ice meltwater on climate system evolution, and to examine the uncertainty in other forcings. Some of these focussed simulations will target shorter durations around specific events in order to understand them in more detail and allow for the more computationally expensive models to take part.

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework

PubMed Central

Warszawski, Lila; Frieler, Katja; Huber, Veronika; Piontek, Franziska; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schewe, Jacob

2014-01-01

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives and framework of the first, fast-tracked phase of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, based on global impact models, and provides an overview of the participating models, input data, and scenario set-up. PMID:24344316

Estimating near-road pollutant dispersion: a model inter-comparison

EPA Science Inventory

A model inter-comparison study to assess the abilities of steady-state Gaussian dispersion models to capture near-road pollutant dispersion has been carried out with four models (AERMOD, run with both the area-source and volume-source options to represent roadways, CALINE, versio...

MMAB Sea Ice Forecast Page

Science.gov Websites

verification statistics Grumbine, R. W., Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison, Weather and Forecasting, 13, 886-890, 1998. MMAB Note: Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison 1996 pdf ~47

The PMIP4 Contribution to CMIP6-Part 4: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum Experiments and PMIP4 Sensitivity Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kageyama, Masa; Albani, Samuel; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Hopcroft, Peter O.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Lambert, Fabrice; Marti, Olivier; Peltier, W. Richard; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves;

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kageyama, Masa; Albani, Samuel; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Hopcroft, Peter O.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Lambert, Fabrice; Marti, Olivier; Peltier, W. Richard; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Roche, Didier M.; Tarasov, Lev; Zhang, Xu; Brady, Esther C.; Haywood, Alan M.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Renssen, Hans; Tomas, Robert A.; Zhang, Qiong; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Cao, Jian; Li, Qiang; Lohmann, Gerrit; Ohgaito, Rumi; Shi, Xiaoxu; Volodin, Evgeny; Yoshida, Kohei; Zhang, Xiao; Zheng, Weipeng

2017-11-01

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MERCURY MODEL INTER-COMPARISON STUDY (NAMMIS)

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes the North American Mercury Model Inter-comparison Study (NAMMIS). The NAMMIS is an effort to apply atmospheric Hg models in a tightly constrained testing environment with a focus on North America. With each model using the same input data sets for initial co...

INTERCOMPARISON STUDY OF ATMOSPHERIC MERCURY MODELS: 2. MODELING RESULTS VS. LONG-TERM OBSERVATIONS AND COMPARISON OF COUNTRY ATMOSPHERIC BALANCES

EPA Science Inventory

Five regional scale models with a horizontal domain covering the European continent and its surrounding seas, two hemispheric and one global scale model participated in the atmospheric Hg modelling intercomparison study. The models were compared between each other and with availa...

An Analysis of Simulated Wet Deposition of Mercury from the North American Mercury Model Intercomparison Study

EPA Science Inventory

A previous intercomparison of atmospheric mercury models in North America has been extended to compare simulated and observed wet deposition of mercury. Three regional-scale atmospheric mercury models were tested; CMAQ, REMSAD and TEAM. These models were each employed using thr...

Climate model simulations of the mid-Pliocene: Earth's last great interval of global warmth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolan, A.M.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.

2012-01-01

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Workshop; Reston, Virginia, 2–4 August 2011 The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), supported by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) project and Powell Center, is an integral part of a third iteration of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). PlioMIP's aim is to systematically compare structurally different climate models. This is done in the context of the mid-Pliocene (~3.3–3.0 million years ago), a geological interval when the global annual mean temperature was similar to predictions for the next century.

Earth and environmental science in the 1980's: Part 1: Environmental data systems, supercomputer facilities and networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

Overview descriptions of on-line environmental data systems, supercomputer facilities, and networks are presented. Each description addresses the concepts of content, capability, and user access relevant to the point of view of potential utilization by the Earth and environmental science community. The information on similar systems or facilities is presented in parallel fashion to encourage and facilitate intercomparison. In addition, summary sheets are given for each description, and a summary table precedes each section.

Global Monsoon Change During the Last Glacial Maximum: A Multi-Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M.; Wang, B.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

Change of Global Monsoon (GM) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is investigated using results from the multi-model ensemble of 7 coupled climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The GM changes during LGM are identified by comparison of the results from the pre-industrial control run and the LGM run. The results show (1) The annual mean GM precipitation and GM domain are reduced by about 10% and 5%, respectively; (2) The monsoon intensity (demonstrated by the local summer-minus-winter precipitation) is also weakened over most monsoon regions except Australian monsoon; (3) The monsoon precipitation is reduced more during the local summer than winter; (4) Distinct from all other regional monsoons, the Australian monsoon is strengthened and the monsoon area is enlarged. Four major factors contribute to these changes. The lower greenhouse gas concentration and the presence of the ice sheets decrease air temperature and water vapor content, resulting in a general weakening of the GM precipitation and reduction of GM domain. The reduced hemispheric difference in seasonal variation of insolation may contribute to the weakened GM intensity. The changed land-ocean configuration in the vicinity of the Maritime Continent, along with the presence of the ice sheets and lower greenhouse gas concentration, result in strengthened land-ocean and North-South hemispheric thermal contrasts, leading to the unique strengthened Australian monsoon. Although some of the results are consistent with the proxy data, uncertainties remain in different models. More comparison is needed between proxy data and model experiments to better understand the changes of the GM during the LGM.

SimilarityExplorer: A visual inter-comparison tool for multifaceted climate data

Treesearch

J. Poco; A. Dasgupta; Y. Wei; W. Hargrove; C. Schwalm; R. Cook; E. Bertini; C. Silva

2014-01-01

Inter-comparison and similarity analysis to gauge consensus among multiple simulation models is a critical visualization problem for understanding climate change patterns. Climate models, specifically, Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBM) represent time and space variable ecosystem processes, for example, simulations of photosynthesis and respiration, using algorithms...

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.;

Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, Lauren; Schmidt, Anja; Toohey, Matthew; Carslaw, Ken S.; Mann, Graham W.; Sigl, Michael; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia; Zanchettin, Davide; Ball, William T.; Bekki, Slimane; Brooke, James S. A.; Dhomse, Sandip; Johnson, Colin; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Mills, Michael J.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Pope, James O.; Poulain, Virginie; Robock, Alan; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Tilmes, Simone; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Tummon, Fiona

2018-02-01

The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 year without a summer, and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic sulfate signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), five state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyse both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. The models simulate overall similar patterns of background sulfate deposition, although there are differences in regional details and magnitude. However, the volcanic sulfate deposition varies considerably between the models with differences in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kg km-2 and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kg km-2, as compared to the mean ice-core-derived estimates of roughly 50 kg km-2 for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results suggest that deriving relationships between sulfate deposited on ice sheets and atmospheric sulfate burdens from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.

Evaluation of Intercomparisons of Four Different Types of Model Simulating TWP-ICE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petch, Jon; Hill, Adrian; Davies, Laura; Fridlind, Ann; Jakob, Christian; Lin, Yanluan; Xie, Shaoecheng; Zhu, Ping

2013-01-01

Four model intercomparisons were run and evaluated using the TWP-ICE field campaign, each involving different types of atmospheric model. Here we highlight what can be learnt from having single-column model (SCM), cloud-resolving model (CRM), global atmosphere model (GAM) and limited-area model (LAM) intercomparisons all based around the same field campaign. We also make recommendations for anyone planning further large multi-model intercomparisons to ensure they are of maximum value to the model development community. CRMs tended to match observations better than other model types, although there were exceptions such as outgoing long-wave radiation. All SCMs grew large temperature and moisture biases and performed worse than other model types for many diagnostics. The GAMs produced a delayed and significantly reduced peak in domain-average rain rate when compared to the observations. While it was shown that this was in part due to the analysis used to drive these models, the LAMs were also driven by this analysis and did not have the problem to the same extent. Based on differences between the models with parametrized convection (SCMs and GAMs) and those without (CRMs and LAMs), we speculate that that having explicit convection helps to constrain liquid water whereas the ice contents are controlled more by the representation of the microphysics.

A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carmichael, Matthew J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Heinemann, Malte; Kiehl, Jeffrey; LeGrande, Allegra; Loptson, Claire A.; Roberts, Chris D.; Sagoo, Navjit; Shields, Christine

2016-01-01

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Intercomparison Between in situ and AVHRR Polar Pathfinder-Derived Surface Albedo over Greenland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stroeve, Julienne C.; Box, Jason E.; Fowler, Charles; Haran, Terence; Key, Jeffery

2001-01-01

The Advanced Very High Resolution (AVHRR) Polar Pathfinder Data (APP) provides the first long time series of consistent, calibrated surface albedo and surface temperature data for the polar regions. Validations of these products have consisted of individual studies that analyzed algorithm performance for limited regions and or time periods. This paper reports on comparisons made between the APP-derived surface albedo and that measured at fourteen automatic weather stations (AWS) around the Greenland ice sheet from January 1997 to August 1998. Results show that satellite-derived surface albedo values are on average 10% less than those measured by the AWS stations. However, the station measurements tend to be biased high by about 4% and thus the differences in absolute albedo may be less (e.g. 6%). In regions of the ice sheet where the albedo variability is small, such as the dry snow facies, the APP albedo uncertainty exceeds the natural variability. Further work is needed to improve the absolute accuracy of the APP-derived surface albedo. Even so, the data provide temporally and spatially consistent estimates of the Greenland ice sheet albedo.

The global gridded crop model intercomparison: Data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0)

DOE PAGES

Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; ...

2015-02-11

We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project consist of global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12–15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification ofmore » key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record.« less

The Program for climate Model diagnosis and Intercomparison: 20-th anniversary Symposium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Potter, Gerald L; Bader, David C; Riches, Michael

Twenty years ago, W. Lawrence (Larry) Gates approached the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Research (now the Office of Science) with a plan to coordinate the comparison and documentation of climate model differences. This effort would help improve our understanding of climate change through a systematic approach to model intercomparison. Early attempts at comparing results showed a surprisingly large range in control climate from such parameters as cloud cover, precipitation, and even atmospheric temperature. The DOE agreed to fund the effort at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), in part because of the existing computing environment andmore » because of a preexisting atmospheric science group that contained a wide variety of expertise. The project was named the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), and it has changed the international landscape of climate modeling over the past 20 years. In spring 2009 the DOE hosted a 1-day symposium to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of PCMDI and to honor its founder, Larry Gates. Through their personal experiences, the morning presenters painted an image of climate science in the 1970s and 1980s, that generated early support from the international community for model intercomparison, thereby bringing PCMDI into existence. Four talks covered Gates's early contributions to climate research at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the RAND Corporation, and Oregon State University through the founding of PCMDI to coordinate the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The speakers were, in order of presentation, Warren Washington [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)], Kelly Redmond (Western Regional Climate Center), George Boer (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis), and Lennart Bengtsson [University of Reading, former director of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)]. The afternoon session emphasized the scientific ideas that are the basis of PCMDI's success, summarizing their evolution and impact. Four speakers followed the various PCMDI-supported climate model intercomparison projects, beginning with early work on cloud representations in models, presented by Robert D. Cess (Distinguished Professor Emeritus, Stony Brook University), and then the latest Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Projects (CFMIPs) led by Sandrine Bony (Laboratoire de M'©t'©orologie Dynamique). Benjamin Santer (LLNL) presented a review of the climate change detection and attribution (D & A) work pioneered at PCMDI, and Gerald A. Meehl (NCAR) ended the day with a look toward the future of climate change research.« less

The Southern Ocean in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

PubMed Central

Meijers, A. J. S.

2014-01-01

The Southern Ocean is an important part of the global climate system, but its complex coupled nature makes both its present state and its response to projected future climate forcing difficult to model. Clear trends in wind, sea-ice extent and ocean properties emerged from multi-model intercomparison in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Here, we review recent analyses of the historical and projected wind, sea ice, circulation and bulk properties of the Southern Ocean in the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Improvements to the models include higher resolutions, more complex and better-tuned parametrizations of ocean mixing, and improved biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric chemistry. CMIP5 largely reproduces the findings of CMIP3, but with smaller inter-model spreads and biases. By the end of the twenty-first century, mid-latitude wind stresses increase and shift polewards. All water masses warm, and intermediate waters freshen, while bottom waters increase in salinity. Surface mixed layers shallow, warm and freshen, whereas sea ice decreases. The upper overturning circulation intensifies, whereas bottom water formation is reduced. Significant disagreement exists between models for the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength, for reasons that are as yet unclear. PMID:24891395

Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Potter, G. L.; Blanchet, J. P.; Boer, G. J.; Del Genio, A. D.

1990-01-01

The present study provides an intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. This intercomparison uses sea surface temperature change as a surrogate for climate change. The interpretation of cloud-climate interactions is given special attention. A roughly threefold variation in one measure of global climate sensitivity is found among the 19 models. The important conclusion is that most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depiction of cloud feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as reliable climate predictors. It is further emphazied that cloud feedback is the consequence of all interacting physical and dynamical processes in a general circulation model. The result of these processes is to produce changes in temperature, moisture distribution, and clouds which are integrated into the radiative response termed cloud feedback.

ARM/GCSS/SPARC TWP-ICE CRM Intercomparison Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fridlind, Ann; Ackerman, Andrew; Petch, Jon; Field, Paul; Hill, Adrian; McFarquhar, Greg; Xie, Shaocheng; Zhang, Minghua

2010-01-01

Specifications are provided for running a cloud-resolving model (CRM) and submitting results in a standardized format for inclusion in a n intercomparison study and archiving for public access. The simulated case study is based on measurements obtained during the 2006 Tropical Warm Pool - International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) led by the U. S. department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The modeling intercomparison study is based on objectives developed in concert with the Stratospheric Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) program and the GEWEX cloud system study (GCSS) program. The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is a core project of the World Climate Research PRogramme (WCRP).

Setting up a model intercomparison project for the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Valdes, P. J.; Roche, D. M.; Kageyama, M.

2014-12-01

The last deglaciation (~ 21-9 ka) presents a series of opportunities to study the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate changes and long-term trends in the Earth System. Most of the forcings are relatively well constrained and geological archives record responses over a range of timescales. Despite this, large uncertainties remain over the feedback loops that culminated in the collapse of the great Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, and a consensus has yet to be reached on the chains of events that led to rapid surface warming and cooling during this period.Climate models are powerful tools for quantitatively assessing these outstanding issues through their ability to temporally resolve cause and effect, as well as break down the contributions from different forcings. This is well demonstrated by pioneering work; for example by Liu et al. (2009), Roche et al. (2011), Gregoire et al. (2012) and Menviel et al. (2011). However, such work is not without challenges; model-geological data mismatches remain unsolved and it is difficult to compare results from different models with unique experiment designs. Therefore, we have established a multidisciplinary Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project working group to coordinate transient climate model simulations and geological archive compilations of the last deglaciation. Here, we present the plans and progress of the working group in its first phase of activity; the investigation of Heinrich Stadial 1 and the lead into the Bolling warming event. We describe the set-up of the core deglacial experiment, explain our approach for dealing with uncertain climate forcings and outline our solutions to challenges posed by this research. By defining a common experiment design, we have built a framework to include models of different speeds, complexities and resolution, maximising the reward of this varied approach. One of the next challenges is to compile transient proxy records and develop a methodology for dealing with uncertainty and error in model-geological data comparisons. Through this global and interdisciplinary initiative, we combine multi-proxy records with a suite of different modelling techniques to test hypotheses for abrupt climate changes and reconstruct the chain of events that deglaciated the Earth 21-9 ka.

Ice_Sheets_CCI: Essential Climate Variables for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsberg, R.; Sørensen, L. S.; Khan, A.; Aas, C.; Evansberget, D.; Adalsteinsdottir, G.; Mottram, R.; Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrøm, A.; Dall, J.; Kusk, A.; Merryman, J.; Hvidberg, C.; Khvorostovsky, K.; Nagler, T.; Rott, H.; Scharrer, M.; Shepard, A.; Ticconi, F.; Engdahl, M.

2012-04-01

As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (www.esa-cci.org) a long-term project "ice_sheets_cci" started January 1, 2012, in addition to the existing 11 projects already generating Essential Climate Variables (ECV) for the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The "ice_sheets_cci" goal is to generate a consistent, long-term and timely set of key climate parameters for the Greenland ice sheet, to maximize the impact of European satellite data on climate research, from missions such as ERS, Envisat and the future Sentinel satellites. The climate parameters to be provided, at first in a research context, and in the longer perspective by a routine production system, would be grids of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes from radar altimetry, ice velocity from repeat-pass SAR data, as well as time series of marine-terminating glacier calving front locations and grounding lines for floating-front glaciers. The ice_sheets_cci project will involve a broad interaction of the relevant cryosphere and climate communities, first through user consultations and specifications, and later in 2012 optional participation in "best" algorithm selection activities, where prototype climate parameter variables for selected regions and time frames will be produced and validated using an objective set of criteria ("Round-Robin intercomparison"). This comparative algorithm selection activity will be completely open, and we invite all interested scientific groups with relevant experience to participate. The results of the "Round Robin" exercise will form the algorithmic basis for the future ECV production system. First prototype results will be generated and validated by early 2014. The poster will show the planned outline of the project and some early prototype results.

Solid precipitation measurement intercomparison in Bismarck, North Dakota, from 1988 through 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Emerson, Douglas G.; Macek-Rowland, Kathleen M.

2009-01-01

A solid precipitation measurement intercomparison was recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and was initiated after approval by the ninth session of the Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation. The goal of the intercomparison was to assess national methods of measuring solid precipitation against methods whose accuracy and reliability were known. A field study was started in Bismarck, N. Dak., during the 1988-89 winter as part of the intercomparison. The last official field season of the WMO intercomparison was 1992-93; however, the Bismarck site continued to operate through the winter of 1996-97. Precipitation events at Bismarck were categorized as snow, mixed, or rain on the basis of descriptive notes recorded as part of the solid precipitation intercomparison. The rain events were not further analyzed in this study. Catch ratios (CRs) - the ratio of the precipitation catch at each gage to the true precipitation measurement (the corrected double fence intercomparison reference) - were calculated. Then, regression analysis was used to develop equations that model the snow and mixed precipitation CRs at each gage as functions of wind speed and temperature. Wind speed at the gages, functions of temperature, and upper air conditions (wind speed and air temperature at 700 millibars pressure) were used as possible explanatory variables in the multiple regression analysis done for this study. The CRs were modeled by using multiple regression analysis for the Tretyakov gage, national shielded gage, national unshielded gage, AeroChem gage, national gage with double fence, and national gage with Wyoming windshield. As in earlier studies by the WMO, wind speed and air temperature were found to influence the CR of the Tretyakov gage. However, in this study, the temperature variable represented the average upper air temperature over the duration of the event. The WMO did not use upper air conditions in its analysis. The national shielded and unshielded gages where found to be influenced by functions of wind speed only, as in other studies, but the upper air wind speed was used as an explanatory variable in this study. The AeroChem gage was not used in the WMO intercomparison study for 1987-93. The AeroChem gage had a highly varied CR at Bismarck, and a number of variables related to wind speed and temperature were used in the model for the CR. Despite extensive efforts to find a model for the national gage with double fence, no statistically significant regression model was found at the 0.05 level of statistical significance. The national gage with Wyoming windshield had a CR modeled by temperature and wind speed variables, and the regression relation had the highest coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.572) and adjusted coefficient of multiple determination (R2a = 0.476) of all of the models identified for any gage. Three of the gage CRs evaluated could be compared with those in the WMO intercomparison study for 1987-93. The WMO intercomparison had the advantage of a much larger dataset than this study. However, the data in this study represented a longer time period. Snow precipitation catch is highly varied depending on the equipment used and the weather conditions. Much of the variation is not accounted for in the WMO equations or in the equations developed in this study, particularly for unshielded gages. Extensive attempts at regression analysis were made with the mixed precipitation data, but it was concluded that the sample sizes were not large enough to model the CRs. However, the data could be used to test the WMO intercomparison equations. The mixed precipitation equations for the Tretyakov and national shielded gages are similar to those for snow in that they are more likely to underestimate precipitation when observed amounts were small and overestimate precipitation when observed amounts were relatively large. Mixed precipitation is underestimated by the WMO adjustment and t

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vives i Batlle, J.; Beresford, N. A.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of 90Sr, 131I and 137Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and whichmore » uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.« less

Future sea-level rise from tidewater and ice-shelf tributary glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schannwell, C.; Barrand, N. E.; Radic, V.

2016-12-01

Iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers contribute significant amounts to global sea-level rise (SLR) from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Owing to ongoing ice dynamical changes (collapse of buttressing ice shelves), these contributions have accelerated in recent years. As the AP is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, further ice dynamical adjustment (increased ice discharge) is expected over the next two centuries. Here the first regional SLR projection of the AP from both iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers in response to ice-shelf collapse is presented. The British Antarctic Survey Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Model (BAS-APISM), previously shown to be suitable for the unique topographic setting from the AP, is forced by temperature output from 13 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In response to the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5), simulations project contribution to SLR of 28±16 to 32±16 mm by 2300, partitioned approximately equally between contributions from tidewater glaciers and ice-shelf tributary glaciers. In the RCP4.5 scenario, sea-level rise projections to 2300 are dominated by tidewater glaciers ( ˜8-18 mm). In this cooler scenario, 2.4±1 mm is added to global sea levels from ice-shelf tributary drainage basins as fewer ice-shelves are projected to collapse. Sea-level projections from ice-shelf tributary glaciers are dominated by drainage basins feeding George VI Ice Shelf, accounting for ˜70% of simulated SLR. Combined total ice dynamical SLR projections to 2300 from the AP vary between 11±2 and 32±16 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), depending on the emission scenario used. These simulations suggest that omission of tidewater glaciers could lead to a substantial underestimation of the ice-sheet's contribution to regional SLR. Iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers contribute significant amounts to global sea-level rise (SLR) from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Owing to ongoing ice dynamical changes (collapse of buttressing ice shelves), these contributions have accelerated in recent years. As the AP is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, further ice dynamical adjustment (increased ice discharge) is expected over the next two centuries. Here the first regional SLR projection of the AP from both iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers in response to ice-shelf collapse is presented. The British Antarctic Survey Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Model (BAS-APISM), previously shown to be suitable for the unique topographic setting from the AP, is forced by temperature output from 13 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In response to the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5), simulations project contribution to SLR of 28±16 to 32±16 mm by 2300, partitioned approximately equally between contributions from tidewater glaciers and ice-shelf tributary glaciers. In the RCP4.5 scenario, sea-level rise projections to 2300 are dominated by tidewater glaciers ( ˜8-18 mm). In this cooler scenario, 2.4±1 mm is added to global sea levels from ice-shelf tributary drainage basins as fewer ice-shelves are projected to collapse. Sea-level projections from ice-shelf tributary glaciers are dominated by drainage basins feeding George VI Ice Shelf, accounting for ˜70% of simulated SLR. Combined total ice dynamical SLR projections to 2300 from the AP vary between 11±2 and 32±16 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), depending on the emission scenario used. These simulations suggest that omission of tidewater glaciers could lead to a substantial underestimation of the ice-sheet's contribution to regional SLR.

Radiance and Jacobian Intercomparison of Radiative Transfer Models Applied to HIRS and AMSU Channels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garand, L.; Turner, D. S.; Larocque, M.; Bates, J.; Boukabara, S.; Brunel, P.; Chevallier, F.; Deblonde, G.; Engelen, R.; Hollingshead, M.;

Radiance and Jacobian Intercomparison of Radiative Transfer Models Applied to HIRS and AMSU Channels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garand, L.; Turner, D. S.; Larocque, M.; Bates, J.; Boukabara, S.; Brunel, P.; Chevallier, F.; Deblonde, G.; Engelen, R.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The goals of this study are the evaluation of current fast radiative transfer models (RTMs) and line-by-line (LBL) models. The intercomparison focuses on the modeling of 11 representative sounding channels routinely used at numerical weather prediction centers: seven HIRS (High-resolution Infrared Sounder) and four AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) channels. Interest in this topic was evidenced by the participation of 24 scientists from 16 institutions. An ensemble of 42 diverse atmospheres was used and results compiled for 19 infrared models and 10 microwave models, including several LBL RTMs. For the first time, not only radiances, but also Jacobians (of temperature, water vapor, and ozone) were compared to various LBL models for many channels. In the infrared, LBL models typically agree to within 0.05-0.15 K (standard deviation) in terms of top-of-the-atmosphere brightness temperature (BT). Individual differences up to 0.5 K still exist, systematic in some channels, and linked to the type of atmosphere in others. The best fast models emulate LBL BTs to within 0.25 K, but no model achieves this desirable level of success for all channels. The ozone modeling is particularly challenging. In the microwave, fast models generally do quite well against the LBL model to which they were tuned. However significant differences were noted among LBL models. Extending the intercomparison to the Jacobians proved very useful in detecting subtle and more obvious modeling errors. In addition, total and single gas optical depths were calculated, which provided additional insight on the nature of differences. Recommendations for future intercomparisons are suggested.

A Bootstrap Algorithm for Mixture Models and Interval Data in Inter-Comparisons

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-07-01

parametric bootstrap. The present algorithm will be applied to a thermometric inter-comparison, where data cannot be assumed to be normally distributed. 2 Data...experimental methods, used in each laboratory) often imply that the statistical assumptions are not satisfied, as for example in several thermometric ...triangular). Indeed, in thermometric experiments these three probabilistic models can represent several common stochastic variabilities for

Antarctic Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Ice Sheet Mass Balance using GRACE: A Report from the Ice-sheet Mass Balance Exercise (IMBIE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivins, E. R.; Wahr, J. M.; Schrama, E. J.; Milne, G. A.; Barletta, V.; Horwath, M.; Whitehouse, P.

2012-12-01

In preparation for the Inter-govermental Panel on Climate Change: Assessment Report 5 (IPCC AR5), ESA and NASA have formed a committee of experts to perform a formal set of comparative experiments concerning space observations of ice sheet mass balance. This project began in August of 2011 and has now concluded with a report submitted for Science (Shepherd et al., 2012). The focus of the work conducted is to re-evaluate scientific reports on the mass balance of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). The most serious discrepancies have been reported for the AIS, amounting to as much as 0.9 mm/yr in discrepant sea level contribution. A direct method of determining the AIS is by space gravimetry. However, for this method to contribute to our understanding of sea level change, we require knowledge of present-day non-elastic vertical movements of bedrock in Antarctica. Quantifying the uncertainty and bias caused by lack of observational control on models of regional glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), was a major focus for our experiments. This regional process is the most problematic error source for GRACE-determinations of ice mass balance in Antarctica. While GIA likely dominates some large vertical motions in Antarctica that are now observed with GPS (Thomas et al., 2011, GRL), interpretations still require models. The reported uncertainty for space gravimetric (GRACE) based sea level sourcing is roughly 0.20 to 0.35 mm/yr. The uncertainty is also part of the error budget for mass balances derived from altimetry measurements, though at a much lower level. Analysis of the GRACE time series using CSR RL04 (2003.0-2010.10) for AIS mass balance reveals a small trend of order +1 to -24 Gt/yr without a GIA correction. Three periods were selected over which to perform inter-comparisons (see Table). One class of GIA models, that relies primarily on far field sea level reconstructions (e.g. ICE-5G), provide a GIA correction that places AIS mass imbalance (δM) as high as -160 Gt/yr. IMBIE used an average of new models IJ05_R2 and W12a for new corrections. This new class of models is constrained by a variety of Antarctic data sets (e.g. proxy reconstructions of past ice extent, GPS estimates of vertical land motion) and provides a correction that is approximately one half to one third of that obtained from the far-field based models. As a consequence, this newer class of models gives Antarctic ice mass balance of approximately -81 ± 33 Gt/yr, or 0.225 ± 0.092 mm/yr contribution to sea-level rise. The new class of GIA models for Antarctica enhances the value of all GRACE Follow-On mission data.Mass Balance of AIS δM (Gt/yr);

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario.

PubMed

Vives I Batlle, J; Beresford, N A; Beaugelin-Seiller, K; Bezhenar, R; Brown, J; Cheng, J-J; Ćujić, M; Dragović, S; Duffa, C; Fiévet, B; Hosseini, A; Jung, K T; Kamboj, S; Keum, D-K; Kryshev, A; LePoire, D; Maderich, V; Min, B-I; Periáñez, R; Sazykina, T; Suh, K-S; Yu, C; Wang, C; Heling, R

2016-03-01

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of (90)Sr, (131)I and (137)Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FACE-IT. A Science Gateway for Food Security Research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Montella, Raffaele; Kelly, David; Xiong, Wei

Progress in sustainability science is hindered by challenges in creating and managing complex data acquisition, processing, simulation, post-processing, and intercomparison pipelines. To address these challenges, we developed the Framework to Advance Climate, Economic, and Impact Investigations with Information Technology (FACE-IT) for crop and climate impact assessments. This integrated data processing and simulation framework enables data ingest from geospatial archives; data regridding, aggregation, and other processing prior to simulation; large-scale climate impact simulations with agricultural and other models, leveraging high-performance and cloud computing; and post-processing to produce aggregated yields and ensemble variables needed for statistics, for model intercomparison, and to connectmore » biophysical models to global and regional economic models. FACE-IT leverages the capabilities of the Globus Galaxies platform to enable the capture of workflows and outputs in well-defined, reusable, and comparable forms. We describe FACE-IT and applications within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy.« less

Models and Measurements Intercomparison 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Jae H. (Editor); Ko, Malcolm K. W. (Editor); Jackman, Charles H. (Editor); Plumb, R. Alan (Editor); Kaye, Jack A. (Editor); Sage, Karen H. (Editor)

1999-01-01

Models and Measurement Intercomparison II (MM II) summarizes the intercomparison of results from model simulations and observations of stratospheric species. Representatives from twenty-three modeling groups using twenty-nine models participated in these MM II exercises between 1996 and 1999. Twelve of the models were two- dimensional zonal-mean models while seventeen were three-dimensional models. This was an international effort as seven were from outside the United States. Six transport experiments and five chemistry experiments were designed for various models. Models participating in the transport experiments performed simulations of chemically inert tracers providing diagnostics for transport. The chemistry experiments involved simulating the distributions of chemically active trace cases including ozone. The model run conditions for dynamics and chemistry were prescribed in order to minimize the factors that caused differences in the models. The report includes a critical review of the results by the participants and a discussion of the causes of differences between modeled and measured results as well as between results from different models, A sizable effort went into preparation of the database of the observations. This included a new climatology for ozone. The report should help in evaluating the results from various predictive models for assessing humankind perturbations of the stratosphere.

Long History of IAM Comparisons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2015-04-23

Correspondence to editor: We agree with the editors that the assumptions behind models of all types, including integrated assessment models (IAMs), should be as transparent as possible. The editors were in error, however, when they implied that the IAM community is just “now emulating the efforts of climate researchers by instigating their own model inter-comparison projects (MIPs).” In fact, model comparisons for integrated assessment and climate models followed a remarkably similar trajectory. Early General Circulation Model (GCM) comparison efforts, evolved to the first Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP), which was initiated in the early 1990s. Atmospheric models evolved to coupledmore » atmosphere-ocean models (AOGCMs) and results from the first Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP1) become available about a decade later. Results of first energy model comparison exercise, conducted under the auspices of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum, were published in 1977. A summary of the first comparison focused on climate change was published in 1993. As energy models were coupled to simple economic and climate models to form IAMs, the first comparison exercise for IAMs (EMF-14) was initiated in 1994, and IAM comparison exercises have been on-going since this time.« less

New Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.; Kravitz, B.

2013-12-01

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) was designed to determine robust climate system model responses to Solar Radiation Management (SRM). While mitigation (reducing greenhouse gases emissions) is the most effective way of reducing future climate change, SRM (the deliberate modification of incoming solar radiation) has been proposed as a means of temporarily alleviating some of the effects of global warming. For society to make informed decisions as to whether SRM should ever be implemented, information is needed on the benefits, risks, and side effects, and GeoMIP seeks to aid in that endeavor. GeoMIP has organized four standardized climate model simulations involving reduction of insolation or increased amounts of stratospheric sulfate aerosols to counteract increasing greenhouse gases. Thirteen comprehensive atmosphere-ocean general circulation models have participated in the project so far. GeoMIP is a 'CMIP Coordinated Experiment' as part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and has been endorsed by SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate). GeoMIP has held three international workshops and has produced a number of recent journal articles. GeoMIP has found that if increasing greenhouse gases could be counteracted with insolation reduction, the global average temperature could be kept constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform. The tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without SRM. If SRM were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5-10 times the rates from gradual global warming. SRM combined with CO2 fertilization would have small impacts on rice production in China, but would increase maize production. SRM using stratospheric aerosols would reduce ozone and enhance surface UV-B radiation, but the details depend on the size distribution of the aerosols, and the complex interaction between upwelling of ozone-poor air in the tropics, suppression of the NOx cycle, and increases of surface area density. While GeoMIP has improved confidence in the expected climate effects of geoengineering in several key areas, it has also highlighted several important research gaps, such as the effects on terrestrial net primary productivity and the importance of the CO2 physiological effect in determining the hydrologic cycle response to geoengineering. Future efforts will endeavor to address these gaps, as well as encourage cooperation with the chemistry modeling communities, the impact assessment communities (including on agriculture and ecosystems), and other groups interested in model output. We are organizing new GeoMIP experiments that address the suggestion that SRM be implemented by marine cloud brightening, and are proposing that GeoMIP be an integral part of the design of the CMIP6 project.

A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Büchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Huber, Veronika; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda; Lehodey, Patrick; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Silva, Tiago; Stock, Charles A.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Underwood, Philip J.; Volkholz, Jan; Watson, James R.; Walker, Nicola D.

2018-04-01

Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

Intercomparison of Global Precipitation Products: The Third Precipitation Intercomparison Project (PIP-3)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Kidd, Christopher; Petty, Grant; Morrissey, Mark; Goodman, H. Michael; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A set of global, monthly rainfall products has been intercompared to understand the quality and utility of the estimates. The products include 25 observational (satellite-based), four model and two climatological products. The results of the intercomparison indicate a very large range (factor of two or three) of values when all products are considered. The range of values is reduced considerably when the set of observational products is limited to those considered quasi-standard. The model products do significantly poorer in the tropics, but are competitive with satellite-based fields in mid-latitudes over land. Over ocean, products are compared to frequency of precipitation from ship observations. The evaluation of the observational products point to merged data products (including rain gauge information) as providing the overall best results.

Did accelerated North American ice sheet melt contribute to the 8.2 ka cooling event ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matero, Ilkka S. O.; Gregoire, Lauren J.; Ivanović, Ruža F.; Tindall, Julia C.; Haywood, Alan M.

2016-04-01

The 8.2 ka event was an abrupt cooling of the Northern Hemisphere 8,200 years ago. It is an almost ideal case study to benchmark the sensitivity of climate models to freshening of the North Atlantic by ice sheet melt (Schmidt and LeGrande, 2005). The event is attributed to the outburst of North American proglacial lakes into the Labrador Sea, causing a slow-down in Atlantic overturning circulation and cooling of 1-2.5 °C around the N. Atlantic (Alley and Ágústsdóttir,2005). Climate models fail to simulate the ~150 year duration of the event when forced with a sudden (0.5 to 5 years) drainage of the lakes (Morrill et al., 2013a). This could be because of missing forcings. For example, the separation of ice sheet domes around the Hudson Bay is thought to have produced a pronounced acceleration in ice sheet melt through a saddle collapse mechanism around the time of the event (Gregoire et al., 2012). Here we investigate whether this century scale acceleration of melt contributed to the observed climatic perturbation, using the coupled Ocean-Atmosphere climate model HadCM3. We designed and ran a set of simulations with temporally variable ice melt scenarios based on a model of the North American ice sheet. The simulated magnitude and duration of the cold period is controlled by the duration and amount of freshwater introduced to the ocean. With a 100-200 year-long acceleration of ice melt up to a maximum of 0.61 Sv, we simulate 1-3 °C cooling in the North Atlantic and ~0.5-1 °C cooling in Continental Europe; which are similar in magnitude to the ~1-2 °C cooling estimated from records for these areas (Morrill et al., 2013b). Some of the observed features are however not reproduced in our experiments, such as the most pronounced cooling of ~6 °C observed in central Greenland (Alley and Ágústsdóttir, 2005). The results suggest that the ~150 year North Atlantic and European cooling could be caused by ~200 years of accelerated North American ice sheet melt. This forcing should therefore be taken into account in the setup of 8.2 ka simulations. References: Alley, R.B., Ágústsdóttir, A.M., 2005. The 8 k event: cause and consequences of a major Holocene abrupt climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (10-11),1123-1149. Gregoire, L. J., A. J. Payne, and P. J. Valdes (2012), Deglacial rapid sea level rises caused by ice-sheet saddle collapses, Nature, 487, 219-223. Morrill, C., A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner (2013a), Model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 ka, Clim. Past, 9, 955-968. Morrill, C., D. M. Anderson, B. A. Bauer, R. Buckner, E. P. Gille, W. S. Gross, M. Hartman, and A. Shah (2013b), Proxy benchmarks for inter-comparison of 8.2 ka simulations, Clim. Past, 9, 423-432. Schmidt, G. A., and A. N. LeGrande (2005), The Goldilocks abrupt climate change event, Quat. Sci. Rev., 24, 1109-1110.

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delincé, Jacques; Ciaian, Pavel; Witzke, Heinz-Peter

2015-01-01

The current paper investigates the long-term global impacts on crop productivity under different climate scenarios using the AgMIP approach (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The paper provides horizontal model intercomparison from 11 economic models as well as a more detailed analysis of the simulated effects from the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model to systematically compare its performance with other AgMIP models and specifically for the Chinese agriculture. CAPRI is a comparative static partial equilibrium model extensively used for medium and long-term economic and environmental policy impact applications. The results indicate that, at the global level, the climate change will cause an agricultural productivity decrease (between -2% and -15% by 2050), a food price increase (between 1.3% and 56%) and an expansion of cultivated area (between 1% and 4%) by 2050. The results for China indicate that the climate change effects tend to be smaller than the global impacts. The CAPRI-simulated effects are, in general, close to the median across all AgMIP models. Model intercomparison analyses reveal consistency in terms of direction of change to climate change but relatively strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of the effects between models.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science. Chapter 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Jones, James W.; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Antle, John M.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Mutter, Carolyn Z.

2015-01-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) was founded in 2010. Its mission is to improve substantially the characterization of world food security as affected by climate variability and change, and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. The objectives of AgMIP are to: Incorporate state-of-the-art climate, crop/livestock, and agricultural economic model improvements into coordinated multi-model regional and global assessments of future climate impacts and adaptation and other key aspects of the food system. Utilize multiple models, scenarios, locations, crops/livestock, and participants to explore uncertainty and the impact of data and methodological choices. Collaborate with regional experts in agronomy, animal sciences, economics, and climate to build a strong basis for model applications, addressing key climate related questions and sustainable intensification farming systems. Improve scientific and adaptive capacity in modeling for major agricultural regions in the developing and developed world, with a focus on vulnerable regions. Improve agricultural data and enhance data-sharing based on their intercomparison and evaluation using best scientific practices. Develop modeling frameworks to identify and evaluate promising adaptation technologies and policies and to prioritize strategies.

An evaluation of 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States as simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

David E. Rupp,

2016-05-05

The 20th century climate for the Southeastern United States and surrounding areas as simulated by global climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was evaluated. A suite of statistics that characterize various aspects of the regional climate was calculated from both model simulations and observation-based datasets. CMIP5 global climate models were ranked by their ability to reproduce the observed climate. Differences in the performance of the models between regions of the United States (the Southeastern and Northwestern United States) warrant a regional-scale assessment of CMIP5 models.

GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

2016-10-01

The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the "Grand Challenges" proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), "historical" simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.

PubMed

Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Frieler, Katja; Konzmann, Markus; Gerten, Dieter; Glotter, Michael; Flörke, Martina; Wada, Yoshihide; Best, Neil; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Folberth, Christian; Foster, Ian; Gosling, Simon N; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Khabarov, Nikolay; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Olin, Stefan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

The DeepMIP Contribution to PMIP4: Experimental Design for Model Simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Anagnostou, Eleni; Baatsen, Michiel L. J.; Caballero, Rodrigo; DeConto, Rob; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Donnadieu, Yannick; Evans, David; Feng, Ran;

Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, A. M.; Hill, D.J.; Dolan, A. M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Bragg, F.; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; Dowsett, H. J.; Jost, A.;

Regionally Optimized GRACE Processing and Inter-comparison on the Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohajerani, Y.; Velicogna, I.; Sutterley, T. C.; Rignot, E. J.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate, with a sea level contribution that changed from 0.08mm/yr from 1992 to 2001 to 0.4mm/yr from 2002 to 2011. While most of this contribution comes from West Antarctica, Totten Glacier has the largest discharge of ice in East Antarctica, with a sea level rise potential of 3.9 m. Furthermore, the drainage basin of Totten Glacier, along the neighboring Moscow University Glacier are below sea level, extending hundreds of kilometers inland. Therefore, obtaining regional estimates of both western and eastern Antarctic basins are of critical importance. The GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite has been providing mass balance time-series from geoid changes since 2002. Several mascon and harmonic GRACE solutions are available from different processing centers. Here, we evaluate the various solutions across the ice sheet and a new set of regionally optimized mascons to study the mass balance of Totten and Moscow University glaciers. We obtain a trend of -16.5±4.1Gt/yr with an acceleration of -2.0±1.8Gt/yr2 for the two glaciers for the period April 2002 to December 2016 using the Ivins et al (2013) GIA model (errors include leakage, GIA, and regression errors). We compare the results with the Mass Budget Method that combines ice discharge (D) and surface mass balance (SMB) from two models: 1) RACMO2.3, and 2) MAR3.6.4. MBM/RACMO2.3 shows the best agreement with the GRACE estimates. Within the common period from April 2002 to December 2015, the MBM/RACMO2.3 and MAR3.6.4 results are -15.6±1.8Gt/yr and -6.7±1.5Gt/yr respectively, while the GRACE time-series has a trend of -14.8±2.7 Gt/yr. We extend the study to the Getz Ice Shelf, the third largest ice shelf in West Antarctica after Ronne and Ross West ice shelves. We compare our gravity-derived mass estimates, the mass budget estimates, and the volume changes from altimetry data to compare the estimates and obtain a multi-sensor assessment of ice sheet mass balance.

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): Simulation design and preliminary results

DOE PAGES

Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Robock, Alan; Tilmes, S.; ...

2015-10-27

We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more long wave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale formore » those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. In conclusion, this is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.« less

The Fifth Calibration/Data Product Validation Panel Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

The minutes and associated documents prepared from presentations and meetings at the Fifth Calibration/Data Product Validation Panel meeting in Boulder, Colorado, April 8 - 10, 1992, are presented. Key issues include (1) statistical characterization of data sets: finding statistics that characterize key attributes of the data sets, and defining ways to characterize the comparisons among data sets; (2) selection of specific intercomparison exercises: selecting characteristic spatial and temporal regions for intercomparisons, and impact of validation exercises on the logistics of current and planned field campaigns and model runs; and (3) preparation of data sets for intercomparisons: characterization of assumptions, transportable data formats, labeling data files, content of data sets, and data storage and distribution (EOSDIS interface).

GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.

The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examinemore » (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.« less

IPRT polarized radiative transfer model intercomparison project - Three-dimensional test cases (phase B)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emde, Claudia; Barlakas, Vasileios; Cornet, Céline; Evans, Frank; Wang, Zhen; Labonotte, Laurent C.; Macke, Andreas; Mayer, Bernhard; Wendisch, Manfred

2018-04-01

Initially unpolarized solar radiation becomes polarized by scattering in the Earth's atmosphere. In particular molecular scattering (Rayleigh scattering) polarizes electromagnetic radiation, but also scattering of radiation at aerosols, cloud droplets (Mie scattering) and ice crystals polarizes. Each atmospheric constituent produces a characteristic polarization signal, thus spectro-polarimetric measurements are frequently employed for remote sensing of aerosol and cloud properties. Retrieval algorithms require efficient radiative transfer models. Usually, these apply the plane-parallel approximation (PPA), assuming that the atmosphere consists of horizontally homogeneous layers. This allows to solve the vector radiative transfer equation (VRTE) efficiently. For remote sensing applications, the radiance is considered constant over the instantaneous field-of-view of the instrument and each sensor element is treated independently in plane-parallel approximation, neglecting horizontal radiation transport between adjacent pixels (Independent Pixel Approximation, IPA). In order to estimate the errors due to the IPA approximation, three-dimensional (3D) vector radiative transfer models are required. So far, only a few such models exist. Therefore, the International Polarized Radiative Transfer (IPRT) working group of the International Radiation Commission (IRC) has initiated a model intercomparison project in order to provide benchmark results for polarized radiative transfer. The group has already performed an intercomparison for one-dimensional (1D) multi-layer test cases [phase A, 1]. This paper presents the continuation of the intercomparison project (phase B) for 2D and 3D test cases: a step cloud, a cubic cloud, and a more realistic scenario including a 3D cloud field generated by a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model and typical background aerosols. The commonly established benchmark results for 3D polarized radiative transfer are available at the IPRT website (http://www.meteo.physik.uni-muenchen.de/ iprt).

The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data

DOE PAGES

Wei, Yaxing; Liu, Shishi; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; ...

2014-12-05

Ecosystems are important and dynamic components of the global carbon cycle, and terrestrial biospheric models (TBMs) are crucial tools in further understanding of how terrestrial carbon is stored and exchanged with the atmosphere across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Improving TBM skills, and quantifying and reducing their estimation uncertainties, pose significant challenges. The Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) is a formal multi-scale and multi-model intercomparison effort set up to tackle these challenges. The MsTMIP protocol prescribes standardized environmental driver data that are shared among model teams to facilitate model model and model observation comparisons. Inmore » this article, we describe the global and North American environmental driver data sets prepared for the MsTMIP activity to both support their use in MsTMIP and make these data, along with the processes used in selecting/processing these data, accessible to a broader audience. Based on project needs and lessons learned from past model intercomparison activities, we compiled climate, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover change (LULCC), C3 / C4 grasses fractions, major crops, phenology and soil data into a standard format for global (0.5⁰ x 0.5⁰ resolution) and regional (North American: 0.25⁰ x 0.25⁰ resolution) simulations. In order to meet the needs of MsTMIP, improvements were made to several of the original environmental data sets, by improving the quality, and/or changing their spatial and temporal coverage, and resolution. The resulting standardized model driver data sets are being used by over 20 different models participating in MsTMIP. Lastly, the data are archived at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC, http://daac.ornl.gov) to provide long-term data management and distribution.« less

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

PubMed Central

Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Frieler, Katja; Konzmann, Markus; Gerten, Dieter; Glotter, Michael; Flörke, Martina; Wada, Yoshihide; Best, Neil; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M.; Folberth, Christian; Foster, Ian; Gosling, Simon N.; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Khabarov, Nikolay; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Olin, Stefan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required. PMID:24344283

BRDF Characterization and Calibration Inter-Comparison between Terra MODIS, Aqua MODIS, and S-NPP VIIRS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, Tiejun; Xiong, Xiaoxiong (Jack); Angal, Amit; Wu, Aisheng

2016-01-01

The inter-comparison of reflective solar bands (RSB) between Terra MODIS, Aqua MODIS, and SNPP VIIRS is very important for assessment of each instrument's calibration and to identify calibration improvements. One of the limitations of using their ground observations for the assessment is a lack of the simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNOs) over selected pseudo-invariant targets. In addition, their measurements over a selected Earth view target have significant difference in solar and view angles, and these differences magnify the effects of Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF). In this work, an inter-comparison technique using a semi-empirical BRDF model is developed for reflectance correction. BRDF characterization requires a broad coverage of solar and view angles in the measurements over selected pseudo-invariant targets. Reflectance measurements over Libya 1, 2, and 4 desert sites from both the Aqua and Terra MODIS are regressed to a BRDF model with an adjustable coefficient accounting for the calibration difference between the two instruments. The BRDF coefficients for three desert sites for MODIS bands 1 to 9 are derived and the wavelength dependencies are presented. The analysis and inter-comparison are for MODIS bands 1 to 9 and VIIRS moderate resolution radiometric bands (M bands) M1, M2, M4, M5, M7, M8, M10 and imaging bands (I bands) I1-I3. Results show that the ratios from different sites are in good agreement. The ratios between Terra and Aqua MODIS from year 2003 to 2014 are presented. The inter-comparison between MODIS and VIIRS are analyzed for year 2014.

Ozone Response to Aircraft Emissions: Sensitivity Studies with Two-dimensional Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Weisenstein, Debra; Jackman, Charles H.; Douglass, Anne R.; Bureske, K.; Weubbles, Donald J.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Brasseur, G.; Pyle, J.; Jones, Anna

1992-01-01

Our first intercomparison/assessment of the effects of a proposed high-speed civil transport (HSCT) fleet on the stratosphere is presented. These model calculations should be considered more as sensitivity studies, primarily designed to serve the following purposes: (1) to allow for intercomparison of model predictions; (2) to focus on the range of fleet operations and engine specifications giving minimal environmental impact; and (3) to provide the basis for future assessment studies. The basic scenarios were chosen to be as realistic as possible, using the information available on anticipated developments in technology. They are not to be interpreted as a commitment or goal for environmental acceptability.

PFLOTRAN-RepoTREND Source Term Comparison Summary.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frederick, Jennifer M.

Code inter-comparison studies are useful exercises to verify and benchmark independently developed software to ensure proper function, especially when the software is used to model high-consequence systems which cannot be physically tested in a fully representative environment. This summary describes the results of the first portion of the code inter-comparison between PFLOTRAN and RepoTREND, which compares the radionuclide source term used in a typical performance assessment.

Revisiting the PLUMBER Experiments from a Process-Diagnostics Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, G. S.; Ruddell, B. L.; Clark, M. P.; Nijssen, B.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2017-12-01

The PLUMBER benchmarking experiments [1] showed that some of the most sophisticated land models (CABLE, CH-TESSEL, COLA-SSiB, ISBA-SURFEX, JULES, Mosaic, Noah, ORCHIDEE) were outperformed - in simulations of half-hourly surface energy fluxes - by instantaneous, out-of-sample, and globally-stationary regressions with no state memory. One criticism of PLUMBER is that the benchmarking methodology was not derived formally, so that applying a similar methodology with different performance metrics can result in qualitatively different results. Another common criticism of model intercomparison projects in general is that they offer little insight into process-level deficiencies in the models, and therefore are of marginal value for helping to improve the models. We address both of these issues by proposing a formal benchmarking methodology that also yields a formal and quantitative method for process-level diagnostics. We apply this to the PLUMBER experiments to show that (1) the PLUMBER conclusions were generally correct - the models use only a fraction of the information available to them from met forcing data (<50% by our analysis), and (2) all of the land models investigated by PLUMBER have similar process-level error structures, and therefore together do not represent a meaningful sample of structural or epistemic uncertainty. We conclude by suggesting two ways to improve the experimental design of model intercomparison and/or model benchmarking studies like PLUMBER. First, PLUMBER did not report model parameter values, and it is necessary to know these values to separate parameter uncertainty from structural uncertainty. This is a first order requirement if we want to use intercomparison studies to provide feedback to model development. Second, technical documentation of land models is inadequate. Future model intercomparison projects should begin with a collaborative effort by model developers to document specific differences between model structures. This could be done in a reproducible way using a unified, process-flexible system like SUMMA [2]. [1] Best, M.J. et al. (2015) 'The plumbing of land surface models: benchmarking model performance', J. Hydrometeor. [2] Clark, M.P. et al. (2015) 'A unified approach for process-based hydrologic modeling: 1. Modeling concept', Water Resour. Res.

Two-Dimensional Intercomparison of Stratospheric Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H. (Editor); Seals, Robert K., Jr. (Editor); Prather, Michael J. (Editor)

1989-01-01

A detailed record is provided for the examination of fundamental differences in photochemistry and transport among atmospheric models. The results of 16 different modeling groups are presented for several model experiments.

The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika

A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standardmore » for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.« less

The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

DOE PAGES

Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika; ...

2016-09-23

A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standardmore » for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.« less

Future Directions in Simulating Solar Geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Robock, Alan; Boucher, Olivier

2014-08-05

Solar geoengineering is a proposed set of technologies to temporarily alleviate some of the consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) created a framework of geoengineering simulations in climate models that have been performed by modeling centers throughout the world (B. Kravitz et al., The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), Atmospheric Science Letters, 12(2), 162-167, doi:10.1002/asl.316, 2011). These experiments use state-of-the-art climate models to simulate solar geoengineering via uniform solar reduction, creation of stratospheric sulfate aerosol layers, or injecting sea spray into the marine boundary layer. GeoMIP has been quite successful in its mission ofmore » revealing robust features and key uncertainties of the modeled effects of solar geoengineering.« less

Water vapour intercomparison effort in the frame of HyMeX-SOP1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summa, Donato; Di Girolamo, Paolo; Stelitano, Dario; Cacciani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Chazette, Patrick; Ducrocq, Véronique; Nuret, Mathieu; Fourié, Nadia; Richard, Evelyne

2014-05-01

A water vapour intercomparison effort, involving airborne and ground-based water vapour lidar systems and mesoscale models, was carried out in the framework of the international HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) dedicated to the hydrological cycle and related high-impact events. Within HyMeX, a major field campaign was dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash flood events from 5 September to 6 November 2012. The 2 month field campaign took place over the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea and its surrounding coastal regions in France, Italy, and Spain. The main objective of this work is to provide accurate error estimates for the lidar systems i.e. the ground-based Raman lidar BASIL and the CNRS DIAL Leandre 2 on board the ATR42, as well as use BASIL data to validate mesoscale model results from the MESO NH and Arome WMED. The effort will benefit from the few dedicated ATR42 flights in the frame of the EUFAR Project "WaLiTemp". In the present work our attention was focused on two specific case studies: 13 September and 2 October in the altitude region 0.5 - 5.5 km. Comparisons between the ground-based Raman lidar BASIL and the airborne CNRS DIAL indicate a mean relative bias between the two sensors of 6.5%, while comparisons between BASIL and CNRS DIAL vs. the radiosondes indicate a bias of 2.6 and -3.5 %, respectively. The bias of BASIL vs. the ATR insitu sensor indicate a bias of -20.4 %. Specific attention will also be dedicated to the WALI/BASIL intercomparison effort which took place in Candillargues on 30 October 2012. Specific results from this intercomparison effort and from the intercomparison between BASIL and Meso-NH/AROME-WMed will be illustrated and discussed at the Conference.

Biogeochemical Protocols and Diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orr, James C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Bullister, John L.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Dutay, Jean-Claude; Graven, Heather;

Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, James C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Bullister, John L.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Doney, Scott C.; Dunne, John P.; Dutay, Jean-Claude; Graven, Heather; Griffies, Stephen M.; John, Jasmin G.; Joos, Fortunat; Levin, Ingeborg; Lindsay, Keith; Matear, Richard J.; McKinley, Galen A.; Mouchet, Anne; Oschlies, Andreas; Romanou, Anastasia; Schlitzer, Reiner; Tagliabue, Alessandro; Tanhua, Toste; Yool, Andrew

2017-06-01

The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948-2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols are founded on those from previous phases of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project. They have been merged and updated to reflect improvements concerning gas exchange, carbonate chemistry, and new data for initial conditions and atmospheric gas histories. Code is provided to facilitate their implementation.

Intercomparison of different operational oceanographic forecast products in the CMEMS IBI area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorente, Pablo; Sotillo, Marcos G.; Dabrowski, Tomasz; Amo-Baladrón, Arancha; Aznar, Roland; De Pascual, Alvaro; Levier, Bruno; Bowyer, Peter; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Salon, Stefano; Tonani, Marina; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique

2017-04-01

The development of skill assessment software packages and dedicated web applications is a relatively novel theme in operational oceanography. Within the CMEMS IBI-MFC, the quality of IBI (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland) forecast products is assessed by means of NARVAL (North Atlantic Regional VALidation) web-based tool. The validation of IBI against independent in situ and remote-sensing measurements is routinely conducted to evaluate model's veracity and prognostic capabilities. Noticeable efforts are in progress to define meaningful skill scores and statistical metrics to quantitatively assess the quality and reliability of the IBI model solution. Likewise, the IBI-MFC compares the IBI forecast products with other model solutions by setting up specific intercomparison exercises on overlapping areas at diverse timescales. In this context, NARVAL web tool already includes a specific module to evaluate strengths and weaknesses of IBI versus other CMEMS operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs). In particular, the IBI physical ocean solution is compared against the CMEMS MED and NWS OOFSs. These CMEMS regional services delivered for the Mediterranean and the North West Shelves include data assimilation schemes in their respective operational chains and generate analogous ocean forecast products to the IBI ones. A number of physical parameters (i.e. sea surface temperature, salinity and current velocities) are evaluated through NARVAL on a daily basis in the overlapping areas existing between these three regional systems. NARVAL is currently being updated in order to extend this intercomparison of ocean model parameters to the biogeochemical solutions provided by the aforementioned OOFSs. More specifically, the simulated chlorophyll concentration is evaluated over several subregions of particular concern by using as benchmark the CMEMS satellite-derived observational products. In addition to this IBI comparison against other regional CMEMS products on overlapping areas, a specific intercomparison between the CMEMS GLOBAL solution and the IBI (regional application dynamically embedded in the former) is conducted in order to check its consistency and ability to outperform the parent model solution. Particular emphasis is placed on the comparison of time-series at specified locations (class-2 metrics). The standardized validation methodology presented here is particularly useful and could encompass the intercomparison of the regional application (IBI) and other nested higher resolution models at coastal/shelf scales to quantify the added value of downscaling in local downstream approaches.

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package: Version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swales, Dustin J.; Pincus, Robert; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro

2018-01-01

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) gathers together a collection of observation proxies or satellite simulators that translate model-simulated cloud properties to synthetic observations as would be obtained by a range of satellite observing systems. This paper introduces COSP2, an evolution focusing on more explicit and consistent separation between host model, coupling infrastructure, and individual observing proxies. Revisions also enhance flexibility by allowing for model-specific representation of sub-grid-scale cloudiness, provide greater clarity by clearly separating tasks, support greater use of shared code and data including shared inputs across simulators, and follow more uniform software standards to simplify implementation across a wide range of platforms. The complete package including a testing suite is freely available.

SECOND LATIN AMERICAN INTERCOMPARISON ON INTERNAL DOSE ASSESSMENT.

PubMed

Rojo, A; Puerta, N; Gossio, S; Gómez Parada, I; Cruz Suarez, R; López, E; Medina, C; Lastra Boylan, J; Pinheiro Ramos, M; Mora Ramírez, E; Alves Dos Reis, A; Yánez, H; Rubio, J; Vironneau Janicek, L; Somarriba Vanegas, F; Puerta Ortiz, J; Salas Ramírez, M; López Bejerano, G; da Silva, T; Miri Oliveira, C; Terán, M; Alfaro, M; García, T; Angeles, A; Duré Romero, E; Farias de Lima, F

2016-09-01

Internal dosimetry intercomparisons are essential for the verification of applied models and the consistency of results'. To that aim, the First Regional Intercomparison was organised in 2005, and that results led to the Second Regional Intercomparison Exercise in 2013, which was organised in the frame of the RLA 9/066 and coordinated by Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear of Argentina. Four simulated cases covering intakes of (131)I, (137)Cs and Tritium were proposed. Ninteen centres from thirteen different countries participated in this exercise. This paper analyses the participants' results in this second exercise in order to test their skills and acquired knowledge, particularly in the application of the IDEAS Guidelines. It is important to highlight the increased number of countries that participated in this exercise compared with the first one and, furthermore, the improvement in the overall performance. The impact of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Projects since 2003 has led to a significant enhancement of internal dosimetry capabilities that strengthen the radiation protection of workers. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.;

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng

2017-01-01

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchicalmore » clustering approach.« less

Past and future weather-induced risk in crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, J. W.; Glotter, M.; Russo, T. A.; Sahoo, S.; Foster, I.; Benton, T.; Mueller, C.

2016-12-01

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather and may harm more people than any other consequence of climate change. Improvements in farming practices have dramatically increased crop productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation. We report here on a number of recent studies evaluating extreme event risk and impacts under historical and near future conditions, including studies conducted as part of the Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and the UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience.

The T-REX valley wind intercomparison project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmidli, J; Billings, B J; Burton, R

2008-08-07

An accurate simulation of the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer is very important, as the evolution of the boundary layer sets the stage for many weather phenomena, such as deep convection. Over mountain areas the evolution of the boundary layer is particularly complex, due to the nonlinear interaction between boundary layer turbulence and thermally-induced mesoscale wind systems, such as the slope and valley winds. As the horizontal resolution of operational forecasts progresses to finer and finer resolution, more and more of the thermally-induced mesoscale wind systems can be explicitly resolved, and it is very timely to document the currentmore » state-of-the-art of mesoscale models at simulating the coupled evolution of the mountain boundary layer and the valley wind system. In this paper we present an intercomparison of valley wind simulations for an idealized valley-plain configuration using eight state-of-the-art mesoscale models with a grid spacing of 1 km. Different sets of three-dimensional simulations are used to explore the effects of varying model dynamical cores and physical parameterizations. This intercomparison project was conducted as part of the Terrain-induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX; Grubisic et al., 2008).« less

Indoor and Outdoor Spectroradiometer Intercomparison for Spectral Irradiance Measurement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Habte, A.; Andreas, A.; Ottoson, L.

2014-05-01

This report details the global spectral irradiance intercomparison using spectroradiometers that was organized by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Solar Radiation Research Laboratory. The intercomparison was performed both indoors and outdoors on September 17, 2013. Five laboratories participated in the intercomparison using 10 spectroradiometers, and a coordinated measurement setup and a common platform were employed to compare spectral irradiances under both indoor and outdoor conditions. The intercomparison aimed to understand the performance of the different spectroradiometers and to share knowledge in making spectral irradiance measurements. This intercomparison was the first of its kind in the United States.

IPRT polarized radiative transfer model intercomparison project - Phase A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emde, Claudia; Barlakas, Vasileios; Cornet, Céline; Evans, Frank; Korkin, Sergey; Ota, Yoshifumi; Labonnote, Laurent C.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Macke, Andreas; Mayer, Bernhard; Wendisch, Manfred

2015-10-01

The polarization state of electromagnetic radiation scattered by atmospheric particles such as aerosols, cloud droplets, or ice crystals contains much more information about the optical and microphysical properties than the total intensity alone. For this reason an increasing number of polarimetric observations are performed from space, from the ground and from aircraft. Polarized radiative transfer models are required to interpret and analyse these measurements and to develop retrieval algorithms exploiting polarimetric observations. In the last years a large number of new codes have been developed, mostly for specific applications. Benchmark results are available for specific cases, but not for more sophisticated scenarios including polarized surface reflection and multi-layer atmospheres. The International Polarized Radiative Transfer (IPRT) working group of the International Radiation Commission (IRC) has initiated a model intercomparison project in order to fill this gap. This paper presents the results of the first phase A of the IPRT project which includes ten test cases, from simple setups with only one layer and Rayleigh scattering to rather sophisticated setups with a cloud embedded in a standard atmosphere above an ocean surface. All scenarios in the first phase A of the intercomparison project are for a one-dimensional plane-parallel model geometry. The commonly established benchmark results are available at the IPRT website.

Antarctic boundary layer parametrization in a general circulation model: 1-D simulations facing summer observations at Dome C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vignon, Etienne; Hourdin, Frédéric; Genthon, Christophe; Gallée, Hubert; Bazile, Eric; Lefebvre, Marie-Pierre; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Van de Wiel, Bas J. H.

2017-07-01

The parametrization of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is critical over the Antarctic Plateau for climate modelling since it affects the climatological temperature inversion and the negatively buoyant near-surface flow over the ice-sheet. This study challenges state-of-the-art parametrizations used in general circulation models to represent the clear-sky summertime diurnal cycle of the ABL at Dome C, Antarctic Plateau. The Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Zoom model is run in a 1-D configuration on the fourth Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges Project Atmospheric Boundary Layers Study case. Simulations are analyzed and compared to observations, giving insights into the sensitivity of one model that participates to the intercomparison exercise. Snow albedo and thermal inertia are calibrated leading to better surface temperatures. Using the so-called "thermal plume model" improves the momentum mixing in the diurnal ABL. In stable conditions, four turbulence schemes are tested. Best simulations are those in which the turbulence cuts off above 35 m in the middle of the night, highlighting the contribution of the longwave radiation in the ABL heat budget. However, the nocturnal surface layer is not stable enough to distinguish between surface fluxes computed with different stability functions. The absence of subsidence in the forcings and an underestimation of downward longwave radiation are identified to be likely responsible for a cold bias in the nocturnal ABL. Apart from model-specific improvements, the paper clarifies on which are the critical aspects to improve in general circulation models to correctly represent the summertime ABL over the Antarctic Plateau.

The Impact of Abrupt Suspension of Solar Radiation Management (Termination Effect) in Experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew; Haywood, J.; Alterskjaer, Kari

2013-09-11

We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentra- tions as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid rate of global-mean warming following termination, accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and in plant net primary productivity, and decreases in sea-ice cover. While there is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of warming, there is much less of an agreement regarding the patterns of changemore » in the other quantities.« less

Using Ecosystem Experiments to Improve Vegetation Models

DOE PAGES

Medlyn, Belinda; Zaehle, S; DeKauwe, Martin G.; ...

2015-05-21

Ecosystem responses to rising CO2 concentrations are a major source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Data from ecosystem-scale Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments provide a unique opportunity to reduce this uncertainty. The recent FACE Model–Data Synthesis project aimed to use the information gathered in two forest FACE experiments to assess and improve land ecosystem models. A new 'assumption-centred' model intercomparison approach was used, in which participating models were evaluated against experimental data based on the ways in which they represent key ecological processes. Identifying and evaluating the main assumptions caused differences among models, and the assumption-centered approach produced amore » clear roadmap for reducing model uncertainty. We explain this approach and summarize the resulting research agenda. We encourage the application of this approach in other model intercomparison projects to fundamentally improve predictive understanding of the Earth system.« less

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Assessment and characterization of forcing to enable feedback studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincus, R.; Stevens, B. B.; Forster, P.; Collins, W.; Ramaswamy, V.

2014-12-01

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Assessment and characterization of forcing to enable feedback studies An enormous amount of attention has been paid to the diversity of responses in the CMIP and other multi-model ensembles. This diversity is normally interpreted as a distribution in climate sensitivity driven by some distribution of feedback mechanisms. Identification of these feedbacks relies on precise identification of the forcing to which each model is subject, including distinguishing true error from model diversity. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) aims to disentangle the role of forcing from model sensitivity as determinants of varying climate model response by carefully characterizing the radiative forcing to which such models are subject and by coordinating experiments in which it is specified. RFMIP consists of four activities: 1) An assessment of accuracy in flux and forcing calculations for greenhouse gases under past, present, and future climates, using off-line radiative transfer calculations in specified atmospheres with climate model parameterizations and reference models 2) Characterization and assessment of model-specific historical forcing by anthropogenic aerosols, based on coordinated diagnostic output from climate models and off-line radiative transfer calculations with reference models 3) Characterization of model-specific effective radiative forcing, including contributions of model climatology and rapid adjustments, using coordinated climate model integrations and off-line radiative transfer calculations with a single fast model 4) Assessment of climate model response to precisely-characterized radiative forcing over the historical record, including efforts to infer true historical forcing from patterns of response, by direct specification of non-greenhouse-gas forcing in a series of coordinated climate model integrations This talk discusses the rationale for RFMIP, provides an overview of the four activities, and presents preliminary motivating results.

Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob

2017-04-01

The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models (http://shmip.bitbucket.org). Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations: Comparing chemistry-climate models and observations at northern midlatitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parrish, D. D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L.; Shindell, D. T.; Staehelin, J.; Derwent, R.; Cooper, O. R.; Tanimoto, H.; Volz-Thomas, A.; Gilge, S.; Scheel, H.-E.; Steinbacher, M.; Fröhlich, M.

2014-05-01

Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northern midlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NOx, an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

The Model Intercomparison Project on the Climatic Response to Volcanic Forcing (VolMIP): Experimental Design and Forcing Input Data for CMIP6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zanchettin, Davide; Khodri, Myriam; Timmreck, Claudia; Toohey, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Gerber, Edwin P.; Hegerl, Gabriele; Robock, Alan; Pausata, Francesco; Ball, William T.;

Inter-comparison of three-dimensional models of volcanic plumes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suzuki, Yujiro; Costa, Antonio; Cerminara, Matteo; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Herzog, Michael; Van Eaton, Alexa; Denby, Leif

2016-01-01

We performed an inter-comparison study of three-dimensional models of volcanic plumes. A set of common volcanological input parameters and meteorological conditions were provided for two kinds of eruptions, representing a weak and a strong eruption column. From the different models, we compared the maximum plume height, neutral buoyancy level (where plume density equals that of the atmosphere), and level of maximum radial spreading of the umbrella cloud. We also compared the vertical profiles of eruption column properties, integrated across cross-sections of the plume (integral variables). Although the models use different numerical procedures and treatments of subgrid turbulence and particle dynamics, the inter-comparison shows qualitatively consistent results. In the weak plume case (mass eruption rate 1.5 × 106 kg s− 1), the vertical profiles of plume properties (e.g., vertical velocity, temperature) are similar among models, especially in the buoyant plume region. Variability among the simulated maximum heights is ~ 20%, whereas neutral buoyancy level and level of maximum radial spreading vary by ~ 10%. Time-averaging of the three-dimensional (3D) flow fields indicates an effective entrainment coefficient around 0.1 in the buoyant plume region, with much lower values in the jet region, which is consistent with findings of small-scale laboratory experiments. On the other hand, the strong plume case (mass eruption rate 1.5 × 109 kg s− 1) shows greater variability in the vertical plume profiles predicted by the different models. Our analysis suggests that the unstable flow dynamics in the strong plume enhances differences in the formulation and numerical solution of the models. This is especially evident in the overshooting top of the plume, which extends a significant portion (~ 1/8) of the maximum plume height. Nonetheless, overall variability in the spreading level and neutral buoyancy level is ~ 20%, whereas that of maximum height is ~ 10%. This inter-comparison study has highlighted the different capabilities of 3D volcanic plume models, and identified key features of weak and strong plumes, including the roles of jet stability, entrainment efficiency, and particle non-equilibrium, which deserve future investigation in field, laboratory, and numerical studies.

DCMIP2016: a review of non-hydrostatic dynamical core design and intercomparison of participating models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullrich, Paul A.; Jablonowski, Christiane; Kent, James; Lauritzen, Peter H.; Nair, Ramachandran; Reed, Kevin A.; Zarzycki, Colin M.; Hall, David M.; Dazlich, Don; Heikes, Ross; Konor, Celal; Randall, David; Dubos, Thomas; Meurdesoif, Yann; Chen, Xi; Harris, Lucas; Kühnlein, Christian; Lee, Vivian; Qaddouri, Abdessamad; Girard, Claude; Giorgetta, Marco; Reinert, Daniel; Klemp, Joseph; Park, Sang-Hun; Skamarock, William; Miura, Hiroaki; Ohno, Tomoki; Yoshida, Ryuji; Walko, Robert; Reinecke, Alex; Viner, Kevin

2017-12-01

Atmospheric dynamical cores are a fundamental component of global atmospheric modeling systems and are responsible for capturing the dynamical behavior of the Earth's atmosphere via numerical integration of the Navier-Stokes equations. These systems have existed in one form or another for over half of a century, with the earliest discretizations having now evolved into a complex ecosystem of algorithms and computational strategies. In essence, no two dynamical cores are alike, and their individual successes suggest that no perfect model exists. To better understand modern dynamical cores, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of 11 non-hydrostatic dynamical cores, drawn from modeling centers and groups that participated in the 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) workshop and summer school. This review includes a choice of model grid, variable placement, vertical coordinate, prognostic equations, temporal discretization, and the diffusion, stabilization, filters, and fixers employed by each system.

A Comparison of Aircraft and Ground-Based Measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, During GTE PEM-West and MLOPEX 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, E.; Ridley, B.; Walega, J.; Greenberg, J.; Kok, G.; Staffelbach, T.; Schauffler, S.; Lind, J.; Huebler, G.; Norton, R.

1996-01-01

During October 19-20, 1991, one flight of the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM-West A) mission was conducted near Hawaii as an intercomparison with ground-based measurements of the Mauna Loa Observatory Photochemistry Experiment (MLOPEX 2) and the NOAA Climate Modeling and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL). Ozone, reactive nitrogen species, peroxides, hydrocarbons, and halogenated hydrocarbons were measured by investigators aboard the DC-8 aircraft and at the ground site. Lidar cross sections of ozone revealed a complex air mass structure near the island of Hawaii which was evidenced by large variation in some trace gas mixing ratios. This variation limited the time and spatial scales for direct measurement intercomparisons. Where differences occurred between measurements in the same air masses, the intercomparison suggested that biases for some trace gases was due to different calibration scales or, in some cases, instrumental or sampling biases. Relatively large uncertainties were associated with those trace gases present in the low parts per trillion by volume range. Trace gas correlations were used to expand the scope of the intercomparison to identify consistent trends between the different data sets.

Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty.

PubMed

Cheaib, Alissar; Badeau, Vincent; Boe, Julien; Chuine, Isabelle; Delire, Christine; Dufrêne, Eric; François, Christophe; Gritti, Emmanuel S; Legay, Myriam; Pagé, Christian; Thuiller, Wilfried; Viovy, Nicolas; Leadley, Paul

2012-06-01

Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche-based to process-based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO(2) impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Metrics for the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation: Toward Routine Benchmarks for Climate Models

DOE PAGES

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Doutriaux, Charles; ...

2016-06-08

In this paper, metrics are proposed—that is, a few summary statistics that condense large amounts of data from observations or model simulations—encapsulating the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Vector area averaging of Fourier amplitude and phase produces useful information in a reasonably small number of harmonic dial plots, a procedure familiar from atmospheric tide research. The metrics cover most of the globe but down-weight high-latitude wintertime ocean areas where baroclinic waves are most prominent. This enables intercomparison of a large number of climate models with observations and with each other. The diurnal cycle of precipitation has features not encountered in typicalmore » climate model intercomparisons, notably the absence of meaningful “average model” results that can be displayed in a single two-dimensional map. Displaying one map per model guides development of the metrics proposed here by making it clear that land and ocean areas must be averaged separately, but interpreting maps from all models becomes problematic as the size of a multimodel ensemble increases. Global diurnal metrics provide quick comparisons with observations and among models, using the most recent version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This includes, for the first time in CMIP, spatial resolutions comparable to global satellite observations. Finally, consistent with earlier studies of resolution versus parameterization of the diurnal cycle, the longstanding tendency of models to produce rainfall too early in the day persists in the high-resolution simulations, as expected if the error is due to subgrid-scale physics.« less

Metrics for the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation: Toward Routine Benchmarks for Climate Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Doutriaux, Charles

In this paper, metrics are proposed—that is, a few summary statistics that condense large amounts of data from observations or model simulations—encapsulating the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Vector area averaging of Fourier amplitude and phase produces useful information in a reasonably small number of harmonic dial plots, a procedure familiar from atmospheric tide research. The metrics cover most of the globe but down-weight high-latitude wintertime ocean areas where baroclinic waves are most prominent. This enables intercomparison of a large number of climate models with observations and with each other. The diurnal cycle of precipitation has features not encountered in typicalmore » climate model intercomparisons, notably the absence of meaningful “average model” results that can be displayed in a single two-dimensional map. Displaying one map per model guides development of the metrics proposed here by making it clear that land and ocean areas must be averaged separately, but interpreting maps from all models becomes problematic as the size of a multimodel ensemble increases. Global diurnal metrics provide quick comparisons with observations and among models, using the most recent version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This includes, for the first time in CMIP, spatial resolutions comparable to global satellite observations. Finally, consistent with earlier studies of resolution versus parameterization of the diurnal cycle, the longstanding tendency of models to produce rainfall too early in the day persists in the high-resolution simulations, as expected if the error is due to subgrid-scale physics.« less

46 CFR 160.060-1 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...-1: Sheet 1—Cutting Pattern and General Arrangement, Model AY. Sheet 2—Cutting Pattern and General Arrangement, Model CYM. Sheet 3—Cutting Pattern and General Arrangement, Model CYS. Sheet 4—Insert Pattern, Model AY. Sheet 5—Insert Pattern, Model CYM. Sheet 6—Insert Pattern, Model CYS. (c) Copies on file...

REGIONAL-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC MERCURY MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

This PowerPoint presentation gives a short synopsis of the state of the science of atmospheric mercury modeling, including a description of recent publications of model codes by EPA, a description of a recent mercury model intercomparison study, and a description of a synthesis p...

Using a Coupled Lake Model with WRF for Dynamical Downscaling

EPA Science Inventory

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to downscale a coarse reanalysis (National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project reanalysis, hereafter R2) as a proxy for a global climate model (GCM) to examine...

A New Paradigm for Diagnosing Contributions to Model Aerosol Forcing Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. L.; Feldman, D. R.; Freidenreich, S.; Paynter, D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Collins, W. D.; Pincus, R.

2017-12-01

A new paradigm in benchmark absorption-scattering radiative transfer is presented that enables both the globally averaged and spatially resolved testing of climate model radiation parameterizations in order to uncover persistent sources of biases in the aerosol instantaneous radiative effect (IRE). A proof of concept is demonstrated with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM4 and Community Earth System Model 1.2.2 climate models. Instead of prescribing atmospheric conditions and aerosols, as in prior intercomparisons, native snapshots of the atmospheric state and aerosol optical properties from the participating models are used as inputs to an accurate radiation solver to uncover model-relevant biases. These diagnostic results show that the models' aerosol IRE bias is of the same magnitude as the persistent range cited ( 1 W/m2) and also varies spatially and with intrinsic aerosol optical properties. The findings underscore the significance of native model error analysis and its dispositive ability to diagnose global biases, confirming its fundamental value for the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Progress and Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Recent progress and the current status of AgMIP will be presented, highlighting three areas of activity: preliminary results from crop pilot studies, outcomes from regional workshops, and emerging scientific challenges. AgMIP crop modeling efforts are being led by pilot studies, which have been established for wheat, maize, rice, and sugarcane. These crop-specific initiatives have proven instrumental in testing and contributing to AgMIP protocols, as well as creating preliminary results for aggregation and input to agricultural trade models. Regional workshops are being held to encourage collaborations and set research activities in motion for key agricultural areas. The first of these workshops was hosted by Embrapa and UNICAMP and held in Campinas, Brazil. Outcomes from this meeting have informed crop modeling research activities within South America, AgMIP protocols, and future regional workshops. Several scientific challenges have emerged and are currently being addressed by AgMIP researchers. Areas of particular interest include geospatial weather generation, ensemble methods for climate scenarios and crop models, spatial aggregation of field-scale yields to regional and global production, and characterization of future changes in climate variability.

GEOS observation systems intercomparison investigation results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berbert, J. H.

1974-01-01

The results of an investigation designed to determine the relative accuracy and precision of the different types of geodetic observation systems used by NASA is presented. A collocation technique was used to minimize the effects of uncertainties in the relative station locations and in the earth's gravity field model by installing accurate reference tracking systems close to the systems to be compared, and by precisely determining their relative survey. The Goddard laser and camera systems were shipped to selected sites, where they tracked the GEOS satellite simultaneously with other systems for an intercomparison observation.

Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

Long-Term Changes in Lower Tropospheric Baseline Ozone Concentrations:. [Comparing Chemistry-Climate Models and Observations at Northern Mid-Latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parrish, D. D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L.; Shindell, D. T.; Staehelin, J.; Derwent, R.; Cooper, O. R.; Tanimoto, H.; Volz-Thomas, A.;

Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. J.; Forster, P.; Richardson, T.; Myhre, G.; Pincus, R.

2016-12-01

The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack of radiative forcing information. This has made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is easier to diagnose than traditional radiative forcing in global climate models (GCMs) and is more representative of the ultimate climate response. Here we examine the different methods of computing ERF in two GCMs. We find that ERF computed from a fixed sea-surface temperature (SST) method (ERF_fSST) has much more certainty than regression-based methods. Thirty-year integrations are sufficient to reduce the standard error in global ERF to 0.05 Wm-2. For 2xCO2 ERF, 30 year integrations are needed to ensure that the signal is larger than the standard error over more than 90% of the globe. Within the ERF_fSST method there are various options for prescribing SSTs and sea-ice. We explore these and find that ERF is only weakly dependent on the methodological choices. Prescribing the monthly-averaged seasonally varying model's preindustrial climatology is recommended for its smaller random error and easier implementation. As part of CMIP6, the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) asks models to conduct 30-year ERF_fSST experiments using the model's own preindustrial climatology of SST and sea-ice. The Aerosol and Chemistry Model intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) will also mainly use this approach. We propose this as a standard method for diagnosing ERF in models and recommend that it be used across the climate modeling community to aid future comparisons.

Multi-Model Combination techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ajami, N K; Duan, Q; Gao, X

2005-04-11

This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multi-model Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniquesmore » affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.« less

A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) ...

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Senior, Catherine A.; Bellucci, Alessio; Bao, Qing; Chang, Ping; Corti, Susanna; Fučkar, Neven S.; Guemas, Virginie; von Hardenberg, Jost; Hazeleger, Wilco; Kodama, Chihiro; Koenigk, Torben; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mao, Jiafu; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Mizuta, Ryo; Nobre, Paulo; Satoh, Masaki; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Semmler, Tido; Small, Justin; von Storch, Jin-Song

2016-11-01

Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950-2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, "what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?", but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.

Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forster, Piers M.; Richardson, Thomas; Maycock, Amanda C.; Smith, Christopher J.; Samset, Bjorn H.; Myhre, Gunnar; Andrews, Timothy; Pincus, Robert; Schulz, Michael

2016-10-01

The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack of radiative forcing information. This has made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is easier to diagnose than traditional radiative forcing in global climate models (GCMs) and is more representative of the eventual temperature response. Here we examine the different methods of computing ERF in two GCMs. We find that ERF computed from a fixed sea surface temperature (SST) method (ERF_fSST) has much more certainty than regression based methods. Thirty year integrations are sufficient to reduce the 5-95% confidence interval in global ERF_fSST to 0.1 W m-2. For 2xCO2 ERF, 30 year integrations are needed to ensure that the signal is larger than the local confidence interval over more than 90% of the globe. Within the ERF_fSST method there are various options for prescribing SSTs and sea ice. We explore these and find that ERF is only weakly dependent on the methodological choices. Prescribing the monthly averaged seasonally varying model's preindustrial climatology is recommended for its smaller random error and easier implementation. As part of CMIP6, the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) asks models to conduct 30 year ERF_fSST experiments using the model's own preindustrial climatology of SST and sea ice. The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) will also mainly use this approach. We propose this as a standard method for diagnosing ERF and recommend that it be used across the climate modeling community to aid future comparisons.

GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison: Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teixeira, J.

2008-12-01

In this presentation I will discuss the role of the GEWEX Cloud Systems Study (GCSS) working groups in paving the way for substantial improvements in cloud parameterization in weather and climate models. The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI) is an extension of GCSS and is a different type of model evaluation where climate models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean transect from California to the equator. This approach aims at complementing the more traditional efforts in GCSS by providing a simple framework for the evaluation of models that encompasses several fundamental cloud regimes such as stratocumulus, shallow cumulus and deep cumulus, as well as the transitions between them. Currently twenty four climate and weather prediction models are participating in GPCI. We will present results of the comparison between models and recent satellite data. In particular, we will explore in detail the potential of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and CloudSat data for the evaluation of the representation of clouds and convection in climate models.

Validation of 131I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

PubMed Central

Zvonova, I.; Krajewski, P.; Berkovsky, V.; Ammann, M.; Duffa, C.; Filistovic, V.; Homma, T.; Kanyar, B.; Nedveckaite, T.; Simon, S.L.; Vlasov, O.; Webbe-Wood, D.

2009-01-01

Within the project “Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety” (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of 131I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of 137Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and 131I/137Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of 131I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of 131I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions. A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten. PMID:19783331

INTERCOMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE VEGETATION DATABASES FOR REGIONAL AIR QUALITY MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

Vegetation cover data are used to characterize several regional air quality modeling processes, including the calculation of heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes with the Mesoscale Meteorological Model (MM5) and the estimate of biogenic volatile organic compound and nitric oxide...

Climate model biases and statistical downscaling for application in hydrologic model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change impact studies use global climate model (GCM) simulations to define future temperature and precipitation. The best available bias-corrected GCM output was obtained from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). CMIP5 data (temperature and precipitation) are available in d...

A preliminary intercomparison between numerical upper wind forecasts and research aircraft measurements of jet streams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shapiro, M. A.

1982-01-01

During the past several years, research on the structure of extra-tropical jet streams has been carried out with direct measurements with instrumented research aircraft from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). These measurements have been used to describe the wind, temperature, turbulence and chemical characteristics of jet streams. A fundamental question is one of assessing the potential value of existing operational numerical forecast models for forecasting the meteorological conditions along commercial aviation flight routes so as to execute Minimum Flight Time tracks and thus obtain the maximum efficiency in aviation fuel consumption. As an initial attempt at resolving this question, the 12 hour forecast output from two models was expressed in terms of a common output format to ease their intercomparison. The chosen models were: (1) the Fine-Mesh Spectral hemispheric and (2) the Limited Area Fine Mesh (LFM) model.

A Methodological Inter-Comparison of Gridded Meteorological Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, A. J.; Clark, M. P.; Longman, R. J.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Arnold, J.

2017-12-01

Here we present a gridded meteorology inter-comparison using the state of Hawaíi as a testbed. This inter-comparison is motivated by two general goals: 1) the broad user community of gridded observation based meteorological fields should be aware of inter-product differences and the reasons they exist, which allows users to make informed choices on product selection to best meet their specific application(s); 2) we want to demonstrate the utility of inter-comparisons to meet the first goal, yet highlight that they are limited to mostly generic statements regarding attribution of differences that limits our understanding of these complex algorithms and obscures future research directions. Hawaíi is a useful testbed because it is a meteorologically complex region with well-known spatial features that are tied to specific physical processes (e.g. the trade wind inversion). From a practical standpoint, there are now several monthly climatological and daily precipitation and temperature datasets available that are being used for impact modeling. General conclusions that have emerged are: 1) differences in input station data significantly influence product differences; 2) prediction of precipitation occurrence is crucial across multiple metrics; 3) derived temperature statistics (e.g. diurnal temperature range) may have large spatial differences across products; and 4) attribution of differences to methodological choices is difficult and may limit the outcomes of these inter-comparisons, particularly from a development viewpoint. Thus, we want to continue to move the community towards frameworks that allow for multiple options throughout the product generation chain and allow for more systematic testing.

C4MIP - The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: experimental protocol for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Bopp, Laurent; Brovkin, Victor; Dunne, John; Graven, Heather; Hoffman, Forrest; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Jung, Martin; Kawamiya, Michio; Koven, Charlie; Pongratz, Julia; Raddatz, Thomas; Randerson, James T.; Zaehle, Sönke

2016-08-01

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks are potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate-carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This paper documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.

C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: Experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks aremore » potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO 2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate–carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO 2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This study documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.« less

C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: Experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Jones, Chris D.; Arora, Vivek; Friedlingstein, Pierre; ...

2016-08-25

Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic and robust analysis of results across many models, by reducing the influence of ad hoc differences in model set-up or experimental boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has grown significantly in scope with the design and documentation of individual simulations delegated to individual climate science communities. The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, and analysis of carbon cycle feedbacks and interactions in climate simulations. These feedbacks aremore » potentially large and play a leading-order contribution in determining the atmospheric composition in response to human emissions of CO 2 and in the setting of emissions targets to stabilize climate or avoid dangerous climate change. For over a decade, C4MIP has coordinated coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations, and in this paper we describe the C4MIP simulations that will be formally part of CMIP6. While the climate–carbon cycle community has created this experimental design, the simulations also fit within the wider CMIP activity, conform to some common standards including documentation and diagnostic requests, and are designed to complement the CMIP core experiments known as the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK). C4MIP has three key strands of scientific motivation and the requested simulations are designed to satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial and historical simulations (formally part of the common set of CMIP6 experiments) to enable model evaluation, (2) idealized coupled and partially coupled simulations with 1 % per year increases in CO 2 to enable diagnosis of feedback strength and its components, (3) future scenario simulations to project how the Earth system will respond to anthropogenic activity over the 21st century and beyond. This study documents in detail these simulations, explains their rationale and planned analysis, and describes how to set up and run the simulations. Particular attention is paid to boundary conditions, input data, and requested output diagnostics. It is important that modelling groups participating in C4MIP adhere as closely as possible to this experimental design.« less

Polar clouds and radiation in satellite observations, reanalyses, and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Van Tricht, Kristof; Lhermitte, Stef; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.

2017-04-01

Clouds play a pivotal role in the surface energy budget of the polar regions. Here we use two largely independent data sets of cloud and surface downwelling radiation observations derived by satellite remote sensing (2007-2010) to evaluate simulated clouds and radiation over both polar ice sheets and oceans in state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalyses (ERA-Interim and Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications-2) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model ensemble. First, we show that, compared to Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System-Energy Balanced and Filled, CloudSat-CALIPSO better represents cloud liquid and ice water path over high latitudes, owing to its recent explicit determination of cloud phase that will be part of its new R05 release. The reanalyses and climate models disagree widely on the amount of cloud liquid and ice in the polar regions. Compared to the observations, we find significant but inconsistent biases in the model simulations of cloud liquid and ice water, as well as in the downwelling radiation components. The CMIP5 models display a wide range of cloud characteristics of the polar regions, especially with regard to cloud liquid water, limiting the representativeness of the multimodel mean. A few CMIP5 models (CNRM, GISS, GFDL, and IPSL_CM5b) clearly outperform the others, which enhances credibility in their projected future cloud and radiation changes over high latitudes. Given the rapid changes in polar regions and global feedbacks involved, future climate model developments should target improved representation of polar clouds. To that end, remote sensing observations are crucial, in spite of large remaining observational uncertainties, which is evidenced by the substantial differences between the two data sets.

Impact of the GeoMIP G1 sunshade geoengineering experiment on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Yu; Moore, John C.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Ji, Duoying; Phipps, Steven J.; Lenton, Andrew; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Zhao, Liyun

2017-03-01

We analyze the multi-earth system model responses of ocean temperatures and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under an idealized solar radiation management scenario (G1) from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. All models simulate warming of the northern North Atlantic relative to no geoengineering, despite geoengineering substantially offsetting the increases in mean global ocean temperatures. Increases in the temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean at the surface (˜0.25 K) and at a depth of 500 m (˜0.10 K) are mainly due to a 10 Wm-2 reduction of total heat flux from ocean to atmosphere. Although the AMOC is slightly reduced under the solar dimming scenario, G1, relative to piControl, it is about 37% stronger than under abrupt4 × CO2 . The reduction of the AMOC under G1 is mainly a response to the heat flux change at the northern North Atlantic rather than to changes in the water flux and the wind stress. The AMOC transfers heat from tropics to high latitudes, helping to warm the high latitudes, and its strength is maintained under solar dimming rather than weakened by greenhouse gas forcing acting alone. Hence the relative reduction in high latitude ocean temperatures provided by solar radiation geoengineering, would tend to be counteracted by the correspondingly active AMOC circulation which furthermore transports warm surface waters towards the Greenland ice sheet, warming Arctic sea ice and permafrost.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;

Earth orientation from lunar laser ranging and an error analysis of polar motion services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickey, J. O.; Newhall, X. X.; Williams, J. G.

1985-01-01

Lunar laser ranging (LLR) data are obtained on the basis of the timing of laser pulses travelling from observatories on earth to retroreflectors placed on the moon's surface during the Apollo program. The modeling and analysis of the LLR data can provide valuable insights into earth's dynamics. The feasibility to model accurately the lunar orbit over the full 13-year observation span makes it possible to conduct relatively long-term studies of variations in the earth's rotation. A description is provided of general analysis techniques, and the calculation of universal time (UT1) from LLR is discussed. Attention is also given to a summary of intercomparisons with different techniques, polar motion results and intercomparisons, and a polar motion error analysis.

Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Forster, Piers M.; Richardson, Thomas; Maycock, Amanda C.; ...

2016-10-27

The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack of radiative forcing information. This has made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is easier to diagnose than traditional radiative forcing in global climate models (GCMs) and is more representative of the eventual temperature response. Here we examine the different methods of computing ERF in two GCMs. We find that ERF computed from a fixed sea surface temperature (SST) method (ERF_fSST) has much more certainty than regression based methods. Thirty year integrations are sufficient to reducemore » the 5–95% confidence interval in global ERF_fSST to 0.1Wm ~2. For 2xCO2 ERF, 30 year integrations are needed to ensure that the signal is larger than the local confidence interval over more than 90% of the globe. Within the ERF_fSST method there are various options for prescribing SSTs and sea ice. We explore these and find that ERF is only weakly dependent on the methodological choices. Prescribing the monthly averaged seasonally varying model’s preindustrial climatology is recommended for its smaller random error and easier implementation. As part of CMIP6, the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) asks models to conduct 30 year ERF_fSST experiments using the model’s own preindustrial climatology of SST and sea ice. The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) will also mainly use this approach. Lastly, we propose this as a standard method for diagnosing ERF and recommend that it be used across the climate modeling community to aid future comparisons.« less

Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forster, Piers M.; Richardson, Thomas; Maycock, Amanda C.

The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack of radiative forcing information. This has made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is easier to diagnose than traditional radiative forcing in global climate models (GCMs) and is more representative of the eventual temperature response. Here we examine the different methods of computing ERF in two GCMs. We find that ERF computed from a fixed sea surface temperature (SST) method (ERF_fSST) has much more certainty than regression based methods. Thirty year integrations are sufficient to reducemore » the 5–95% confidence interval in global ERF_fSST to 0.1Wm ~2. For 2xCO2 ERF, 30 year integrations are needed to ensure that the signal is larger than the local confidence interval over more than 90% of the globe. Within the ERF_fSST method there are various options for prescribing SSTs and sea ice. We explore these and find that ERF is only weakly dependent on the methodological choices. Prescribing the monthly averaged seasonally varying model’s preindustrial climatology is recommended for its smaller random error and easier implementation. As part of CMIP6, the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) asks models to conduct 30 year ERF_fSST experiments using the model’s own preindustrial climatology of SST and sea ice. The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) will also mainly use this approach. Lastly, we propose this as a standard method for diagnosing ERF and recommend that it be used across the climate modeling community to aid future comparisons.« less

Dose evaluation in criticality accidents using response of Panasonic TL personal dosemeters (UD-809/UD-802).

PubMed

Zeyrek, C T; Gündüz, H

2012-09-01

This study gives the results of dosimetry measurements carried out in the Silène reactor at Valduc (France) with neutron and photon personal thermoluminescence dosemeters (TLDs) in mixed neutron and gamma radiation fields, in the frame of the international accident dosimetry intercomparison programme in 2002. The intercomparison consisted of a series of three irradiation scenarios. The scenarios took place at the Valduc site (France) by using the Silène experimental reactor. For neutron and photon dosimetry, Panasonic model UD-809 and UD-802 personal TLDs were used together.

A New Paradigm for Diagnosing Contributions to Model Aerosol Forcing Error: Diagnosing Model Aerosol Forcing Error

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, A. L.; Feldman, D. R.; Freidenreich, S.

A new paradigm in benchmark absorption-scattering radiative transfer is presented that enables both the globally averaged and spatially resolved testing of climate model radiation parameterizations in order to uncover persistent sources of biases in the aerosol instantaneous radiative effect (IRE). A proof of concept is demonstrated with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM4 and Community Earth System Model 1.2.2 climate models. Instead of prescribing atmospheric conditions and aerosols, as in prior intercomparisons, native snapshots of the atmospheric state and aerosol optical properties from the participating models are used as inputs to an accurate radiation solver to uncover model-relevant biases. Thesemore » diagnostic results show that the models' aerosol IRE bias is of the same magnitude as the persistent range cited (~1 W/m 2) and also varies spatially and with intrinsic aerosol optical properties. The findings presented here underscore the significance of native model error analysis and its dispositive ability to diagnose global biases, confirming its fundamental value for the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project.« less

A New Paradigm for Diagnosing Contributions to Model Aerosol Forcing Error: Diagnosing Model Aerosol Forcing Error

DOE PAGES

Jones, A. L.; Feldman, D. R.; Freidenreich, S.; ...

2017-12-07

A new paradigm in benchmark absorption-scattering radiative transfer is presented that enables both the globally averaged and spatially resolved testing of climate model radiation parameterizations in order to uncover persistent sources of biases in the aerosol instantaneous radiative effect (IRE). A proof of concept is demonstrated with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM4 and Community Earth System Model 1.2.2 climate models. Instead of prescribing atmospheric conditions and aerosols, as in prior intercomparisons, native snapshots of the atmospheric state and aerosol optical properties from the participating models are used as inputs to an accurate radiation solver to uncover model-relevant biases. Thesemore » diagnostic results show that the models' aerosol IRE bias is of the same magnitude as the persistent range cited (~1 W/m 2) and also varies spatially and with intrinsic aerosol optical properties. The findings presented here underscore the significance of native model error analysis and its dispositive ability to diagnose global biases, confirming its fundamental value for the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project.« less

46 CFR 160.055-1 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

.... 160.055-IA: Sheet 1—Construction and Arrangement, Vinyl Dip Coated, Model 62, Adult. Sheet 2—Construction and Arrangement, Vinyl Dip Coated, Model 66, Child. Dwg. No. 160.055-IB: Sheet 1—Construction and Arrangement, Cloth Covered, Model 63, Adult. Sheet 2—Buoyant Inserts, Model 63. Sheet 3—Construction and...

The Joint Experiment for Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM): Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Inter-Comparison Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dingle Robertson, L.; Hosseini, M.; Davidson, A. M.; McNairn, H.

2017-12-01

The Joint Experiment for Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) is the research and development branch of GEOGLAM (Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring), a G20 initiative to improve the global monitoring of agriculture through the use of Earth Observation (EO) data and remote sensing. JECAM partners represent a diverse network of researchers collaborating towards a set of best practices and recommendations for global agricultural analysis using EO data, with well monitored test sites covering a wide range of agriculture types, cropping systems and climate regimes. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for crop inventory and condition monitoring offers many advantages particularly the ability to collect data under cloudy conditions. The JECAM SAR Inter-Comparison Experiment is a multi-year, multi-partner project that aims to compare global methods for (1) operational SAR & optical; multi-frequency SAR; and compact polarimetry methods for crop monitoring and inventory, and (2) the retrieval of Leaf Area Index (LAI) and biomass estimations using models such as the Water Cloud Model (WCM) employing single frequency SAR; multi-frequency SAR; and compact polarimetry. The results from these activities will be discussed along with an examination of the requirements of a global experiment including best-date determination for SAR data acquisition, pre-processing techniques, in situ data sharing, model development and statistical inter-comparison of the results.

Radiative-convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Allison A.; Reed, Kevin A.; Satoh, Masaki; Stevens, Bjorn; Bony, Sandrine; Ohno, Tomoki

2018-03-01

RCEMIP, an intercomparison of multiple types of models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), is proposed. RCE is an idealization of the climate system in which there is a balance between radiative cooling of the atmosphere and heating by convection. The scientific objectives of RCEMIP are three-fold. First, clouds and climate sensitivity will be investigated in the RCE setting. This includes determining how cloud fraction changes with warming and the role of self-aggregation of convection in climate sensitivity. Second, RCEMIP will quantify the dependence of the degree of convective aggregation and tropical circulation regimes on temperature. Finally, by providing a common baseline, RCEMIP will allow the robustness of the RCE state across the spectrum of models to be assessed, which is essential for interpreting the results found regarding clouds, climate sensitivity, and aggregation, and more generally, determining which features of tropical climate a RCE framework is useful for. A novel aspect and major advantage of RCEMIP is the accessibility of the RCE framework to a variety of models, including cloud-resolving models, general circulation models, global cloud-resolving models, single-column models, and large-eddy simulation models.

An overview of sensor calibration inter-comparison and applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xiong, Xiaoxiong; Cao, Changyong; Chander, Gyanesh

2010-01-01

Long-term climate data records (CDR) are often constructed using observations made by multiple Earth observing sensors over a broad range of spectra and a large scale in both time and space. These sensors can be of the same or different types operated on the same or different platforms. They can be developed and built with different technologies and are likely operated over different time spans. It has been known that the uncertainty of climate models and data records depends not only on the calibration quality (accuracy and stability) of individual sensors, but also on their calibration consistency across instruments and platforms. Therefore, sensor calibration inter-comparison and validation have become increasingly demanding and will continue to play an important role for a better understanding of the science product quality. This paper provides an overview of different methodologies, which have been successfully applied for sensor calibration inter-comparison. Specific examples using different sensors, including MODIS, AVHRR, and ETM+, are presented to illustrate the implementation of these methodologies.

OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffies, Stephen M.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Durack, Paul J.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Balaji, V.; Böning, Claus W.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Curchitser, Enrique; Deshayes, Julie; Drange, Helge; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Gleckler, Peter J.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Haak, Helmuth; Hallberg, Robert W.; Heimbach, Patrick; Hewitt, Helene T.; Holland, David M.; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Komuro, Yoshiki; Krasting, John P.; Large, William G.; Marsland, Simon J.; Masina, Simona; McDougall, Trevor J.; Nurser, A. J. George; Orr, James C.; Pirani, Anna; Qiao, Fangli; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Taylor, Karl E.; Treguier, Anne Marie; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Uotila, Petteri; Valdivieso, Maria; Wang, Qiang; Winton, Michael; Yeager, Stephen G.

2016-09-01

The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is an endorsed project in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses CMIP6 science questions, investigating the origins and consequences of systematic model biases. It does so by providing a framework for evaluating (including assessment of systematic biases), understanding, and improving ocean, sea-ice, tracer, and biogeochemical components of climate and earth system models contributing to CMIP6. Among the WCRP Grand Challenges in climate science (GCs), OMIP primarily contributes to the regional sea level change and near-term (climate/decadal) prediction GCs.OMIP provides (a) an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing; and (b) a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) detailing methods for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II (Interannual Forcing) have become the standard methods to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP, HighResMIP (High Resolution MIP), as well as the ocean/sea-ice OMIP simulations.

ISI-MIP: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, V.; Dahlemann, S.; Frieler, K.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

2013-12-01

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. The unique cross-sectoral scope of the project provides the opportunity to study cascading effects of impacts in interacting sectors and to identify regional 'hot spots' where multiple sectors experience extreme impacts. Another emphasis lies on the development of novel metrics to describe societal impacts of a warmer climate. We briefly outline the methodological framework, and then present selected results of the first, fast-tracked phase of ISI-MIP. The fast track brought together 35 global impact models internationally, spanning five sectors across human society and the natural world (agriculture, water, natural ecosystems, health and coastal infrastructure), and using the latest generation of global climate simulations (RCP projections from the CMIP5 archive) and socioeconomic drivers provided within the SSP process. We also introduce the second phase of the project, which will enlarge the scope of ISI-MIP by encompassing further impact sectors (e.g., forestry, fisheries, permafrost) and regional modeling approaches. The focus for the next round of simulations will be the validation and improvement of models based on historical observations and the analysis of variability and extreme events. Last but not least, we discuss the longer-term objective of ISI-MIP to initiate a coordinated, ongoing impact assessment process, driven by the entire impact community and in parallel with well-established climate model intercomparisons (CMIP).

INTERCOMPARISON OF OPTICAL REMOTE SENSING SYSTEMS FOR ROADSIDE MEASUREMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

The presentation describes results of an intercomparison of three optical remote sensing systems for measurements of nitric oxide emitted from passenger cars and light-duty trucks. The intercomparison included a standards comparison to establish comparability of standards, follo...

Validation of Modelled Ice Dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Historical Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, M. J.; Price, S. F.; Howat, I. M.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Tezaur, I.; Kennedy, J. H.; Lenaerts, J.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Neumann, T.; Nowicki, S.; Perego, M.; Saba, J. L.; Salinger, A.; Guerber, J. R.

2015-12-01

Although ice sheet models are used for sea level rise projections, the degree to which these models have been validated by observations is fairly limited, due in part to the limited duration of the satellite observation era and the long adjustment time scales of ice sheets. Here we describe a validation framework for the Greenland Ice Sheet applied to the Community Ice Sheet Model by forcing the model annually with flux anomalies at the major outlet glaciers (Enderlin et al., 2014, observed from Landsat/ASTER/Operation IceBridge) and surface mass balance (van Angelen et al., 2013, calculated from RACMO2) for the period 1991-2012. The ice sheet model output is compared to ice surface elevation observations from ICESat and ice sheet mass change observations from GRACE. Early results show promise for assessing the performance of different model configurations. Additionally, we explore the effect of ice sheet model resolution on validation skill.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiang, Baoqiang; Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.

The severity of the double Intertropical Convergence Zone (DI) problem in climate models can be measured by a tropical precipitation asymmetry index (PAI), indicating whether tropical precipitation favors the Northern Hemisphere or the Southern Hemisphere. Examination of 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models reveals that the PAI is tightly linked to the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) bias. As one of the factors determining the SST bias, the asymmetry of tropical net surface heat flux in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations is identified as a skillful predictor of the PAI change from an AMIP to a coupledmore » simulation, with an intermodel correlation of 0.90. Using tropical top-of-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes, the correlations are lower but still strong. However, the extratropical asymmetries of surface and TOA fluxes in AMIP simulations cannot serve as useful predictors of the PAI change. Furthermore, this study suggests that the largest source of the DI bias is from the tropics and from atmospheric models.« less

Benchmarking carbon-nitrogen interactions in Earth System Models to observations: An inter-comparison of nitrogen limitation in global land surface models with carbon and nitrogen cycles (CLM-CN and O-CN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R. Q.; Zaehle, S.; Templer, P. H.; Goodale, C. L.

2011-12-01

Predictions of climate change depend on accurately modeling the feedbacks among the carbon cycle, nitrogen cycle, and climate system. Several global land surface models have shown that nitrogen limitation determines how land carbon fluxes respond to rising CO2, nitrogen deposition, and climate change, thereby influencing predictions of climate change. However, the magnitude of the carbon-nitrogen-climate feedbacks varies considerably by model, leading to critical and timely questions of why they differ and how they compare to field observations. To address these questions, we initiated a model inter-comparison of spatial patterns and drivers of nitrogen limitation. The experiment assessed the regional consequences of sustained nitrogen additions in a set of 25-year global nitrogen fertilization simulations. The model experiments were designed to cover effects from small changes in nitrogen inputs associated with plausible increases in nitrogen deposition to large changes associated with field-based nitrogen fertilization experiments. The analyses of model simulations included assessing the geographically varying degree of nitrogen limitation on plant and soil carbon cycling and the mechanisms underlying model differences. Here, we present results from two global land-surface models (CLM-CN and O-CN) with differing approaches to modeling carbon-nitrogen interactions. The predictions from each model were compared to a set of globally distributed observational data that includes nitrogen fertilization experiments, 15N tracer studies, small catchment nitrogen input-output studies, and syntheses across nitrogen deposition gradients. Together these datasets test many aspects of carbon-nitrogen coupling and are able to differentiate between the two models. Overall, this study is the first to explicitly benchmark carbon and nitrogen interactions in Earth System Models using a range of observations and is a foundation for future inter-comparisons.

Intercomparison of TCCON and MUSICA Water Vapour Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, D.; Strong, K.; Deutscher, N. M.; Schneider, M.; Blumenstock, T.; Robinson, J.; Notholt, J.; Sherlock, V.; Griffith, D. W. T.; Barthlott, S.; García, O. E.; Smale, D.; Palm, M.; Jones, N. B.; Hase, F.; Kivi, R.; Ramos, Y. G.; Yoshimura, K.; Sepúlveda, E.; Gómez-Peláez, Á. J.; Gisi, M.; Kohlhepp, R.; Warneke, T.; Dohe, S.; Wiegele, A.; Christner, E.; Lejeune, B.; Demoulin, P.

2014-12-01

We present an intercomparison between the water vapour products from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and the MUlti-platform remote Sensing of Isotopologues for investigating the Cycle of Atmospheric water (MUSICA), two datasets from ground-based Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectrometers with good global representation. Where possible, comparisons to radiosondes are also included. The near-infrared TCCON measurements are optimized to provide precise monitoring of greenhouse gases for carbon cycle studies; however, TCCON's retrievals also produce water vapour products. The mid-infrared MUSICA products result from retrievals optimized to give precise and accurate information about H2O, HDO, and δD. The MUSICA water vapour products have been validated by extensive intercomparisons with H2O and δD in-situ measurements made from ground, radiosonde, and aircraft (Schneider et al. 2012, 2014), as well as by intercomparisons with satellite-based H2O and δD remote sensing measurements (Wiegele et al., 2014). This dataset provides a valuable reference point for other measurements of water vapour. This study is motivated by the limited intercomparisons performed for TCCON water vapour products and limited characterisation of their uncertainties. We compare MUSICA and TCCON products to assess the potential for TCCON measurements to contribute to studies of the water cycle, water vapour's role in climate and use as a tracer for atmospheric dynamics, and to evaluate the performance of climate models. The TCCON and MUSICA products result from measurements taken using the same FTIR instruments, enabling a comparison with constant instrumentation. The retrieval techniques differ, however, in their method and a priori information. We assess the impact of these differences and characterize the comparability of the TCCON and MUSICA datasets.

Global Intercomparison of 12 Land Surface Heat Flux Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jimenez, C.; Prigent, C.; Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.; McCabe, M. F.; Wood, E. F.; Rossow, W. B.; Balsamo, G.; Betts, A. K.; Dirmeyer, P. A.;

Seasonal ozone vertical profiles over North America using the AQMEII group of air quality models: model inter-comparison and stratospheric intrusion

EPA Science Inventory

This study utilizes simulations for the North American domain from four modeling groups that participated in the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3) to evaluate seasonal ozone vertical profiles simulated for the year 2010 against ozo...

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Arnell, Nigel W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Raes, Frank; Rapley, Chris; Smith, Mark Stafford; Cramer, Wolfgang; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher P. O.;

The Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP-2016): Results of the Supercell Test Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarzycki, C. M.; Reed, K. A.; Jablonowski, C.; Ullrich, P. A.; Kent, J.; Lauritzen, P. H.; Nair, R. D.

2016-12-01

The 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP-2016) assesses the modeling techniques for global climate and weather models and was recently held at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in conjunction with a two-week summer school. Over 12 different international modeling groups participated in DCMIP-2016 and focused on the evaluation of the newest non-hydrostatic dynamical core designs for future high-resolution weather and climate models. The paper highlights the results of the third DCMIP-2016 test case, which is an idealized supercell storm on a reduced-radius Earth. The supercell storm test permits the study of a non-hydrostatic moist flow field with strong vertical velocities and associated precipitation. This test assesses the behavior of global modeling systems at extremely high spatial resolution and is used in the development of next-generation numerical weather prediction capabilities. In this regime the effective grid spacing is very similar to the horizontal scale of convective plumes, emphasizing resolved non-hydrostatic dynamics. The supercell test case sheds light on the physics-dynamics interplay and highlights the impact of diffusion on model solutions.

Influence of the choice of gas-phase mechanism on predictions of key gaseous pollutants during the AQMEII phase-2 intercomparison

EPA Science Inventory

The formulations of tropospheric gas-phase chemistry (“mechanisms”)used in the regional-scale chemistry-transport models participating in theAir Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase2 are intercompared by the means of box model studies. Simulations ...

Field test to intercompare carbon monoxide, nitric oxide and hydroxyl instrumentation at Wallops Island, Virginia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, Gerald L.; Beck, Sherwin M.; Bendura, Richard J.

1987-01-01

Documentation of the first of three instrument intercomparisons conducted as part of NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment/Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (GTE/CITE-1) is given. This ground-based intercomparison was conducted during July 1983 at NASA Wallops Flight Facility. Instruments intercompared included one laser system and three grab-sample approaches for CO; two chemiluminescent systems and one laser-induced fluorescent (LIF) technique for NO; and two different LIF systems and a radiochemical tracer technique for OH. The major objectives of this intercomparison was to intercompare ambient measurements of CO, NO, and OH at a common site by using techniques of fundamentally different detection principles and to identify any major biases among the techniques prior to intercomparison on an aircraft platform. Included in the report are comprehensive discussions of workshop requirements, philosophies, and operations as well as intercomparison analyses and results. In addition, the large body of nonintercomparison data incorporated into the workshop measurements is summarized. The report is an important source document for those interested in conducting similar large and complex intercomparison tests as well as those interested in using the data base for purposes other than instrument intercomparison.

Intercomparison of Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems in the framework of GODAE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, F.

2009-04-01

One of the main benefits of the GODAE 10-year activity is the implementation of ocean forecasting systems in several countries. In 2008, several systems are operated routinely, at global or basin scale. Among them, the BLUElink (Australia), HYCOM (USA), MOVE/MRI.COM (Japan), Mercator (France), FOAM (United Kingdom), TOPAZ (Norway) and C-NOOFS (Canada) systems offered to demonstrate their operational feasibility by performing an intercomparison exercise during a three months period (February to April 2008). The objectives were: a) to show that operational ocean forecasting systems are operated routinely in different countries, and that they can interact; b) to perform in a similar way a scientific validation aimed to assess the quality of the ocean estimates, the performance, and forecasting capabilities of each system; and c) to learn from this intercomparison exercise to increase inter-operability and collaboration in real time. The intercomparison relies on the assessment strategy developed for the EU MERSEA project, where diagnostics over the global ocean have been revisited by the GODAE contributors. This approach, based on metrics, allow for each system: a) to verify if ocean estimates are consistent with the current general knowledge of the dynamics; and b) to evaluate the accuracy of delivered products, compared to space and in-situ observations. Using the same diagnostics also allows one to intercompare the results from each system consistently. Water masses and general circulation description by the different systems are consistent with WOA05 Levitus climatology. The large scale dynamics (tropical, subtropical and subpolar gyres ) are also correctly reproduced. At short scales, benefit of high resolution systems can be evidenced on the turbulent eddy field, in particular when compared to eddy kinetic energy deduced from satellite altimetry of drifter observations. Comparisons to high resolution SST products show some discrepancies on ocean surface representation, either due to model and forcing fields errors, or assimilation scheme efficiency. Comparisons to sea-ice satellite products also evidence discrepancies linked to model, forcing and assimilation strategies of each forecasting system. Key words: Intercomparison, ocean analysis, operational oceanography, system assessment, metrics, validation GODAE Intercomparison Team: L. Bertino (NERSC/Norway), G. Brassington (BMRC/Australia), E. Chassignet (FSU/USA), J. Cummings (NRL/USA), F. Davidson (DFO/Canda), M. Drévillon (CERFACS/France), P. Hacker (IPRC/USA), M. Kamachi (MRI/Japan), J.-M. Lellouche (CERFACS/France), K. A. Lisæter (NERSC/Norway), R. Mahdon (UKMO/UK), M. Martin (UKMO/UK), A. Ratsimandresy (DFO/Canada), and C. Regnier (Mercator Ocean/France)

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; ...

2016-11-22

Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relativelymore » few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950–2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. Lastly, HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, “what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?”, but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.« less

Accuracy of tretyakov precipitation gauge: Result of wmo intercomparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, Daqing; Goodison, Barry E.; Metcalfe, John R.; Golubev, Valentin S.; Elomaa, Esko; Gunther, Thilo; Bates, Roy; Pangburn, Timothy; Hanson, Clayton L.; Emerson, Douglas G.; Copaciu, Voilete; Milkovic, Janja

1995-01-01

The Tretyakov non-recording precipitation gauge has been used historically as the official precipitation measurement instrument in the Russian (formerly the USSR) climatic and hydrological station network and in a number of other European countries. From 1986 to 1993, the accuracy and performance of this gauge were evaluated during the WMO Solid Precipitation Measurement Intercomparison at 11 stations in Canada, the USA, Russia, Germany, Finland, Romania and Croatia. The double fence intercomparison reference (DFIR) was the reference standard used at all the Intercomparison stations in the Intercomparison. The Intercomparison data collected at the different sites are compatible with respect to the catch ratio (measured/DFIR) for the same gauge, when compared using mean wind speed at the height of the gauge orifice during the observation period.The Intercomparison data for the Tretyakov gauge were compiled from measurements made at these WMO intercomparison sites. These data represent a variety of climates, terrains and exposures. The effects of environmental factors, such as wind speed, wind direction, type of precipitation and temperature, on gauge catch ratios were investigated. Wind speed was found to be the most important factor determining the gauge catch and air temperature had a secondary effect when precipitation was classified into snow, mixed and rain. The results of the analysis of gauge catch ratio versus wind speed and temperature on a daily time step are presented for various types of precipitation. Independent checks of the correction equations against the DFIR have been conducted at those Intercomparison stations and a good agreement (difference less than 10%) has been obtained. The use of such adjustment procedures should significantly improve the accuracy and homogeneity of gauge-measured precipitation data over large regions of the former USSR and central Europe.

Using an SLR inversion to measure the mass balance of Greenland before and during GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonin, Jennifer

2016-04-01

The GRACE mission has done an admirable job of measuring large-scale mass changes over Greenland since its launch in 2002. However before that time, measurements of large-scale ice mass balance were few and far between, leading to a lack of baseline knowledge. High-quality Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) data existed a decade earlier, but normally has too low a spatial resolution to be used for this purpose. I demonstrate that a least squares inversion technique can reconstitute the SLR data and use it to measure ice loss over Greenland. To do so, I first simulate the problem by degrading today's GRACE data to a level comparable with SLR, then demonstrating that the inversion can re-localize Greenland's contribution to the low-resolution signal, giving an accurate time series of mass change over all of Greenland which compares well with the full-resolution GRACE estimates. I then utilize that method on the actual SLR data, resulting in an independent 1994-2014 time series of mass change over Greenland. I find favorable agreement between the pure-SLR inverted results and the 2012 Ice-sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) results, which are largely based on the "input-output" modeling method before GRACE's launch.

Operational overview of NASA GTE/CITE 1 airborne instrument intercomparisons - Carbon monoxide, nitric oxide, and hydroxyl instrumentation. [Global Tropospheric Experiment/Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beck, Sherwin M.; Bendura, Richard J.; Mcdougal, David S.; Hoell, James M., Jr.; Gregory, Gerald L.; Sachse, Glen W.; Hill, Gerald F.; Curfman, Howard J., Jr.; Torres, Arnold L.; Condon, Estelle P.

1987-01-01

An overview of the airborne intercomparisons of CO, NO, and OH instrumentation is presented in this first paper of the series on the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment/Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (GTE/CITE 1). This paper provides the reader with background information about several important characteristics of the project. These include the overall objectives and approach, the measurements taken, the intercomparison protocol, aircraft platform, profiles of each aircraft flight, and the participants. A synopsis of the overall results of the CO, NO, and OH instrument intercomparisons is also included. Companion papers discuss the detailed results of the CO and NO intercomparison tests as well as pertinent scientific findings.

Predicting the severity of spurious “double ITCZ” problem in CMIP5 coupled models from AMIP simulations [Tropical versus extratropical origins of the spurious 'double ITCZ' in coupled climate models

DOE PAGES

Xiang, Baoqiang; Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.; ...

2017-02-13

The severity of the double Intertropical Convergence Zone (DI) problem in climate models can be measured by a tropical precipitation asymmetry index (PAI), indicating whether tropical precipitation favors the Northern Hemisphere or the Southern Hemisphere. Examination of 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models reveals that the PAI is tightly linked to the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) bias. As one of the factors determining the SST bias, the asymmetry of tropical net surface heat flux in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations is identified as a skillful predictor of the PAI change from an AMIP to a coupledmore » simulation, with an intermodel correlation of 0.90. Using tropical top-of-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes, the correlations are lower but still strong. However, the extratropical asymmetries of surface and TOA fluxes in AMIP simulations cannot serve as useful predictors of the PAI change. Furthermore, this study suggests that the largest source of the DI bias is from the tropics and from atmospheric models.« less

Representation of the Great Lakes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briley, L.; Rood, R. B.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Great Lakes play a significant role in modifying regional temperatures and precipitation, and as the lakes change in response to a warming climate (i.e., warmer surface water temperatures, decreased ice cover, etc) lake-land-atmosphere dynamics are affected. Because the lakes modify regional weather and are a driver of regional climate change, understanding how they are represented in climate models is important to the reliability of model based information for the region. As part of the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments (GLISA) Ensemble project, a major effort is underway to evaluate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version (CMIP) 5 global climate models for how well they physically represent the Great Lakes and lake-effects. The CMIP models were chosen because they are a primary source of information in many products developed for decision making (i.e., National Climate Assessment, downscaled future climate projections, etc.), yet there is very little description of how well they represent the lakes. This presentation will describe the results of our investigation of if and how the Great Lakes are represented in the CMIP5 models.

Sensitivity tests to define the source apportionment performance criteria in the DeltaSA tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pernigotti, Denise; Belis, Claudio A.

2017-04-01

Identification and quantification of the contribution of emission sources to a given area is a key task for the design of abatement strategies. Moreover, European member states are obliged to report this kind of information for zones where the pollution levels exceed the limit values. At present, little is known about the performance and uncertainty of the variety of methodologies used for source apportionment and the comparability between the results of studies using different approaches. The source apportionment Delta (SA Delta) is a tool developed by the EC-JRC to support the particulate matter source apportionment modellers in the identification of sources (for factor analysis studies) and/or in the measure of their performance. The source identification is performed by the tool measuring the proximity of any user chemical profile to preloaded repository data (SPECIATE and SPECIEUROPE). The model performances criteria are based on standard statistical indexes calculated by comparing participants' source contribute estimates and their time series with preloaded references data. Those preloaded data refer to previous European SA intercomparison exercises: the first with real world data (22 participants), the second with synthetic data (25 participants) and the last with real world data which was also extended to Chemical Transport Models (38 receptor models and 4 CTMs). The references used for the model performances are 'true' (predefined by JRC) for the synthetic while they are calculated as ensemble average of the participants' results in real world intercomparisons. The candidates used for each source ensemble reference calculation were selected among participants results based on a number of consistency checks plus the similarity between their chemical profiles to the repository measured data. The estimation of the ensemble reference uncertainty is crucial in order to evaluate the users' performances against it. For this reason a sensitivity analysis on different methods to estimate the ensemble references' uncertainties was performed re-analyzing the synthetic intercomparison dataset, the only one where 'true' reference and ensemble reference contributions were both present. The Delta SA is now available on-line and will be presented, with a critical discussion of the sensitivity analysis on the ensemble reference uncertainty. In particular the grade of among participants mutual agreement on the presence of a certain source should be taken into account. Moreover also the importance of the synthetic intercomparisons in order to catch receptor models common biases will be stressed.

NASA Giovanni Portals for NLDAS/GLDAS Online Visualization, Analysis, and Intercomparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rui, Hualan; Teng, William L.; Vollmer, Bruce; Mocko, David M.; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Rodell, Matthew

2011-01-01

The North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are generating a series of land surface forcing (e.g., precipitation, surface meteorology, and radiation), state (e.g., soil moisture and temperature, and snow), and flux (e.g., evaporation and sensible heat flux) products, simulated by several land surface models. To date, NLDAS and GLDAS have generated more than 30 (1979 - present) and 60 (1948 - present) years of data, respectively. To further facilitate data accessibility and utilization, three new portals in the NASA Giovanni system have been made available for NLDAS and GLDAS online visualization, analysis, and intercomparison.

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinshausen, M.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Raper, S. C. B.

2011-02-01

Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.

Host Model Uncertainty in Aerosol Radiative Effects: the AeroCom Prescribed Experiment and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stier, Philip; Schutgens, Nick; Bian, Huisheng; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, Mian; Ghan, Steven; Huneeus, Nicolas; Kinne, Stefan; Lin, Guangxing; Myhre, Gunnar; Penner, Joyce; Randles, Cynthia; Samset, Bjorn; Schulz, Michael; Yu, Hongbin; Zhou, Cheng; Bellouin, Nicolas; Ma, Xiaoyan; Yu, Fangqun; Takemura, Toshihiko

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic and natural aerosol radiative effects are recognized to affect global and regional climate. Multi-model "diversity" in estimates of the aerosol radiative effect is often perceived as a measure of the uncertainty in modelling aerosol itself. However, current aerosol models vary considerably in model components relevant for the calculation of aerosol radiative forcings and feedbacks and the associated "host-model uncertainties" are generally convoluted with the actual uncertainty in aerosol modelling. In the AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study we systematically isolate and quantify host model uncertainties on aerosol forcing experiments through prescription of identical aerosol radiative properties in eleven participating models. Host model errors in aerosol radiative forcing are largest in regions of uncertain host model components, such as stratocumulus cloud decks or areas with poorly constrained surface albedos, such as sea ice. Our results demonstrate that host model uncertainties are an important component of aerosol forcing uncertainty that require further attention. However, uncertainties in aerosol radiative effects also include short-term and long-term feedback processes that will be systematically explored in future intercomparison studies. Here we will present an overview of the proposals for discussion and results from early scoping studies.

The Earth System (ES-DOC) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenslade, Mark; Murphy, Sylvia; Treshansky, Allyn; DeLuca, Cecilia; Guilyardi, Eric; Denvil, Sebastien

2014-05-01

ESSI1.3 New Paradigms, Modelling, and International Collaboration Strategies for Earth System Sciences Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) is an international project supplying tools & services in support of earth system documentation creation, analysis and dissemination. It is nurturing a sustainable standards based documentation eco-system that aims to become an integral part of the next generation of exa-scale dataset archives. ES-DOC leverages open source software and places end-user narratives at the heart of all it does. ES-DOC has initially focused upon nurturing the Earth System Model (ESM) documentation eco-system. Within this context ES-DOC leverages emerging documentation standards and supports the following projects: Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5); Dynamical Core Model Inter-comparison Project (DCMIP); National Climate Predictions and Projections Platforms Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop. This presentation will introduce the project to a wider audience and demonstrate the range of tools and services currently available for use. It will also demonstrate how international collaborative efforts are essential to the success of ES-DOC.

Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2017-08-01

The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

2009-01-01

This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model performance are considered and that all models are suitable to participate in further multi-model ensemble set-ups and land use change scenario investigations. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drivers of pluvial lake distributions in western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibarra, D. E.; Oster, J. L.; Winnick, M.; Caves, J. K.; Ritch, A. J.; Chamberlain, C. P.; Maher, K.

2016-12-01

The distribution of large inland lakes in western North America during the Plio-Pleistocene is intimately linked to the regional hydroclimate and moisture delivery dynamics. We investigate the climatological conditions driving terminal basin lakes in western North America during the mid-Pliocene warm period and the latest Pleistocene glacial maximum. Lacustrine deposits and geologic proxies suggest that lakes and wet conditions persisted during both warm and cold periods in the southwest, despite dramatically different global climate, ice sheet configuration and pCO2 levels. We use two complementary methods to quantify the hydroclimate drivers of terminal basin lake levels. First, a quantitative proxy-model comparison is conducted using compilations of geologic proxies and an ensemble of climate models. We utilize archived climate model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka, LGM) and mid-Pliocene (3.3 Ma) produced by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP and PlioMIP). Our proxy network is made up of stable isotope records from caves, soils and paleosols, lake deposits and shorelines, glacier chronologies, and packrat middens. Second, we forward model the spatial distribution of lakes in the region using a Budyko framework to constrain the water balance for terminally draining watersheds, and make quantitative comparisons to mapped lacustrine shorelines and outcrops. Cumulatively these two approaches suggest that reduced evaporation and moderate increases in precipitation, relative to modern, drove moderate to large pluvial lakes during the LGM in the Great Basin. In contrast, larger precipitation increases appear to be the primary driver of lake levels during the mid-Pliocene in the southwest, with this spatial difference suggesting a role for El Niño teleconnections. These results demonstrate that during past periods of global change patterns of `dry-gets-drier, wet-gets-wetter' do not hold true for western North America.

An intercomparison of three remote sensing-based energy balance models using large aperture scintillometer measurements over a wheat-corn production region

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This paper compares three remote sensing-based models for estimating evapotranspiration (ET), namely the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), the Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) model, and the surface Temperature-Vegetation index Triangle (TVT). The models used as input MODIS/TERRA products and gr...

Uranium adsorption on weathered schist - Intercomparison of modeling approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payne, T.E.; Davis, J.A.; Ochs, M.; Olin, M.; Tweed, C.J.

2004-01-01

Experimental data for uranium adsorption on a complex weathered rock were simulated by twelve modelling teams from eight countries using surface complexation (SC) models. This intercomparison was part of an international project to evaluate the present capabilities and limitations of SC models in representing sorption by geologic materials. The models were assessed in terms of their predictive ability, data requirements, number of optimised parameters, ability to simulate diverse chemical conditions and transferability to other substrates. A particular aim was to compare the generalised composite (GC) and component additivity (CA) approaches for modelling sorption by complex substrates. Both types of SC models showed a promising capability to simulate sorption data obtained across a range of chemical conditions. However, the models incorporated a wide variety of assumptions, particularly in terms of input parameters such as site densities and surface site types. Furthermore, the methods used to extrapolate the model simulations to different weathered rock samples collected at the same field site tended to be unsatisfactory. The outcome of this modelling exercise provides an overview of the present status of adsorption modelling in the context of radionuclide migration as practised in a number of countries worldwide.

Visualization tools for model/data comparisons and decision making during the Monterey Bay 2006 experiment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawlowski, L.; Kolber, D.; Godin, M.; Chavez, F. P.

2006-12-01

During summer 2006, almost 100 different oceanographic sensors have captured for more than one month the properties of the waters of the Californian Central Coast. Data were assimilated in quasi-real time by three hydrodynamical models to forecast the evolution of the local conditions such as currents, sea water temperature, salinity and to adapt accordingly the sampling strategy of the involved unmanned vehicles (AUV, gliders). Due to the high diversity of data and models (sources, file structures, time and spatial coverage, periodicity of sampling), the collected informations were first converted into a standardized format which allows one to quickly find and extract the relevant variables from the main data server of the experiment. Visualization softwares were developed to provide live maps of the latest locations of instruments, surface plots and vertical transects of currents, temperature and salinity from data and models. These products were mainly used for decision making, for model intercomparison and to evaluate the quality of the data assimilation process for each model. Plots were updated several times a day and automatically posted on an internet collaborative portal. Softwares were adaptive in regards of the availability of simulations and datasets from satellite, aircraft, robotic vehicles, research vessels, moorings, drifters Their modular structures allowed a quick implementation of new instruments during the experiment. Profiles from gliders and AUV served as references for intercomparisons between models for salinity and temperature. As simulations were not synchronized between models, the involved algorithm selected, for all gliders, relevant portions of their tracks to serve as references for model intercomparison. These portions were delimited to prioritize the comparison for each model between observations and nowcasts/hindcasts and also to evaluate the loss of forecasting capabilities with time. We provide here several examples of these graphical products for different situations we encountered during the experiment.

Reproduction of 20th century inter- to multi-decadel surface temperature variablilty in radiatively forced coupled climate models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 simulations of surface temperature were evaluated over the period 1902-1999 to assess their ability to reproduce historical temperature variability at 211 global locations. Model performance was evaluated using the running Mann Whitney-Z method, a technique th...

Toward Better Intraseasonal and Seasonal Prediction: Verification and Evaluation of the NOGAPS Model Forecasts

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

package developed by the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP), COSP (BODAS- SALCEDO et al. 2011). COSP will convert the model hydrometers ...and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution. J. Hydromet ., 5, 487-503. Kay, J. E. et al., 2012: Exposing global cloud biases in the

CGILS Phase 2 LES intercomparison of response of subtropical marine low cloud regimes to CO 2 quadrupling and a CMIP3 composite forcing change: Large eddy simulation of cloud feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blossey, Peter N.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Cheng, Anning

We extended Phase 1 of the CGILS large-eddy simulation (LES) intercomparison in order to understand if subtropical marine boundary-layer clouds respond to idealized climate perturbations consistently in six LES models. Here the responses to quadrupled carbon dioxide (“fast adjustment”) and to a composite climate perturbation representative of CMIP3 multimodel mean 2×CO 2 near-equilibrium conditions are analyzed. As in Phase 1, the LES is run to equilibrium using specified steady summertime forcings representative of three locations in the Northeast Pacific Ocean in shallow well-mixed stratocumulus, decoupled stratocumulus, and shallow cumulus cloud regimes. Our results are generally consistent with a single-LES studymore » of Bretherton et al. (2013) on which this intercomparison was based. Both quadrupled CO 2 and the composite climate perturbation result in less cloud and a shallower boundary layer for all models in well-mixed stratocumulus and for all but a single LES in decoupled stratocumulus and shallow cumulus, corroborating similar findings from global climate models (GCMs). For both perturbations, the amount of cloud reduction varies across the models, but there is less intermodel scatter than in GCMs. Furthermore, the cloud radiative effect changes are much larger in the stratocumulus-capped regimes than in the shallow cumulus regime, for which precipitation buffering may damp the cloud response. In the decoupled stratocumulus and cumulus regimes, both the CO 2 increase and CMIP3 perturbations reduce boundary-layer decoupling, due to the shallowing of inversion height.« less

CGILS Phase 2 LES intercomparison of response of subtropical marine low cloud regimes to CO 2 quadrupling and a CMIP3 composite forcing change: Large eddy simulation of cloud feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Blossey, Peter N.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Cheng, Anning; ...

2016-10-27

We extended Phase 1 of the CGILS large-eddy simulation (LES) intercomparison in order to understand if subtropical marine boundary-layer clouds respond to idealized climate perturbations consistently in six LES models. Here the responses to quadrupled carbon dioxide (“fast adjustment”) and to a composite climate perturbation representative of CMIP3 multimodel mean 2×CO 2 near-equilibrium conditions are analyzed. As in Phase 1, the LES is run to equilibrium using specified steady summertime forcings representative of three locations in the Northeast Pacific Ocean in shallow well-mixed stratocumulus, decoupled stratocumulus, and shallow cumulus cloud regimes. Our results are generally consistent with a single-LES studymore » of Bretherton et al. (2013) on which this intercomparison was based. Both quadrupled CO 2 and the composite climate perturbation result in less cloud and a shallower boundary layer for all models in well-mixed stratocumulus and for all but a single LES in decoupled stratocumulus and shallow cumulus, corroborating similar findings from global climate models (GCMs). For both perturbations, the amount of cloud reduction varies across the models, but there is less intermodel scatter than in GCMs. Furthermore, the cloud radiative effect changes are much larger in the stratocumulus-capped regimes than in the shallow cumulus regime, for which precipitation buffering may damp the cloud response. In the decoupled stratocumulus and cumulus regimes, both the CO 2 increase and CMIP3 perturbations reduce boundary-layer decoupling, due to the shallowing of inversion height.« less

Community Intercomparison Suite (CIS) v1.4.0: a tool for intercomparing models and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson-Parris, Duncan; Schutgens, Nick; Cook, Nicholas; Kipling, Zak; Kershaw, Philip; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Lawrence, Bryan; Stier, Philip

2016-09-01

The Community Intercomparison Suite (CIS) is an easy-to-use command-line tool which has been developed to allow the straightforward intercomparison of remote sensing, in situ and model data. While there are a number of tools available for working with climate model data, the large diversity of sources (and formats) of remote sensing and in situ measurements necessitated a novel software solution. Developed by a professional software company, CIS supports a large number of gridded and ungridded data sources "out-of-the-box", including climate model output in NetCDF or the UK Met Office pp file format, CloudSat, CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization), MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), Cloud and Aerosol CCI (Climate Change Initiative) level 2 satellite data and a number of in situ aircraft and ground station data sets. The open-source architecture also supports user-defined plugins to allow many other sources to be easily added. Many of the key operations required when comparing heterogenous data sets are provided by CIS, including subsetting, aggregating, collocating and plotting the data. Output data are written to CF-compliant NetCDF files to ensure interoperability with other tools and systems. The latest documentation, including a user manual and installation instructions, can be found on our website (http://cistools.net). Here, we describe the need which this tool fulfils, followed by descriptions of its main functionality (as at version 1.4.0) and plugin architecture which make it unique in the field.

Cloud-resolving model intercomparison of an MC3E squall line case: Part I-Convective updrafts: CRM Intercomparison of a Squall Line

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Jiwen; Han, Bin; Varble, Adam

A constrained model intercomparison study of a mid-latitude mesoscale squall line is performed using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km horizontal grid spacing with eight cloud microphysics schemes, to understand specific processes that lead to the large spread of simulated cloud and precipitation at cloud-resolving scales, with a focus of this paper on convective cores. Various observational data are employed to evaluate the baseline simulations. All simulations tend to produce a wider convective area than observed, but a much narrower stratiform area, with most bulk schemes overpredicting radar reflectivity. The magnitudes of the virtual potential temperature drop,more » pressure rise, and the peak wind speed associated with the passage of the gust front are significantly smaller compared with the observations, suggesting simulated cool pools are weaker. Simulations also overestimate the vertical velocity and Ze in convective cores as compared with observational retrievals. The modeled updraft velocity and precipitation have a significant spread across the eight schemes even in this strongly dynamically-driven system. The spread of updraft velocity is attributed to the combined effects of the low-level perturbation pressure gradient determined by cold pool intensity and buoyancy that is not necessarily well correlated to differences in latent heating among the simulations. Variability of updraft velocity between schemes is also related to differences in ice-related parameterizations, whereas precipitation variability increases in no-ice simulations because of scheme differences in collision-coalescence parameterizations.« less

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.; Bauer, Nico; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Chris D.; Kravitz, Ben; Muri, Helene; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention - deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO 2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO 2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emissionmore » scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO 2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO 2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>« less

Validation of individual and aggregate global flood hazard models for two major floods in Africa.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigg, M.; Bernhofen, M.; Whyman, C.

2017-12-01

A recent intercomparison of global flood hazard models undertaken by the Global Flood Partnership shows that there is an urgent requirement to undertake more validation of the models against flood observations. As part of the intercomparison, the aggregated model dataset resulting from the project was provided as open access data. We compare the individual and aggregated flood extent output from the six global models and test these against two major floods in the African Continent within the last decade, namely severe flooding on the Niger River in Nigeria in 2012, and on the Zambezi River in Mozambique in 2007. We test if aggregating different number and combination of models increases model fit to the observations compared with the individual model outputs. We present results that illustrate some of the challenges of comparing imperfect models with imperfect observations and also that of defining the probability of a real event in order to test standard model output probabilities. Finally, we propose a collective set of open access validation flood events, with associated observational data and descriptions that provide a standard set of tests across different climates and hydraulic conditions.

CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chengzhu; Xie, Shaocheng; Klein, Stephen A.; Ma, Hsi-yen; Tang, Shuaiqi; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Morcrette, Cyril J.; Petch, Jon

2018-03-01

All the weather and climate models participating in the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface project show a summertime surface air temperature (T2 m) warm bias in the region of the central United States. To understand the warm bias in long-term climate simulations, we assess the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, with long-term observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Southern Great Plains site. Quantities related to the surface energy and water budget, and large-scale circulation are analyzed to identify possible factors and plausible links involved in the warm bias. The systematic warm season bias is characterized by an overestimation of T2 m and underestimation of surface humidity, precipitation, and precipitable water. Accompanying the warm bias is an overestimation of absorbed solar radiation at the surface, which is due to a combination of insufficient cloud reflection and clear-sky shortwave absorption by water vapor and an underestimation in surface albedo. The bias in cloud is shown to contribute most to the radiation bias. The surface layer soil moisture impacts T2 m through its control on evaporative fraction. The error in evaporative fraction is another important contributor to T2 m. Similar sources of error are found in hindcast from other Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface studies. In Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations, biases in meridional wind velocity associated with the low-level jet and the 500 hPa vertical velocity may also relate to T2 m bias through their control on the surface energy and water budget.

Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Perrette, Mahé; Nicholls, Robert James; Tol, Richard S J; Marzeion, Ben; Fettweis, Xavier; Ionescu, Cezar; Levermann, Anders

2014-03-04

Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are assessed on a global scale taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in continental topography data, population data, protection strategies, socioeconomic development and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global mean and regional sea level was derived from four different climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, each combined with three land-ice scenarios based on the published range of contributions from ice sheets and glaciers. Without adaptation, 0.2-4.6% of global population is expected to be flooded annually in 2100 under 25-123 cm of global mean sea-level rise, with expected annual losses of 0.3-9.3% of global gross domestic product. Damages of this magnitude are very unlikely to be tolerated by society and adaptation will be widespread. The global costs of protecting the coast with dikes are significant with annual investment and maintenance costs of US$ 12-71 billion in 2100, but much smaller than the global cost of avoided damages even without accounting for indirect costs of damage to regional production supply. Flood damages by the end of this century are much more sensitive to the applied protection strategy than to variations in climate and socioeconomic scenarios as well as in physical data sources (topography and climate model). Our results emphasize the central role of long-term coastal adaptation strategies. These should also take into account that protecting large parts of the developed coast increases the risk of catastrophic consequences in the case of defense failure.

FDTD modeling of thin impedance sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luebbers, Raymond J.; Kunz, Karl S.

1991-01-01

Thin sheets of resistive or dielectric material are commonly encountered in radar cross section calculations. Analysis of such sheets is simplified by using sheet impedances. In this paper it is shown that sheet impedances can be modeled easily and accurately using Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) methods.

The Continuous Intercomparison of Radiation Codes (CIRC): Phase I Cases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Mlawer, Eli; Delamere, Jennifer; Shippert, Timothy; Turner, David D.; Miller, Mark A.; Minnis, Patrick; Clough, Shepard; Barker, Howard; Ellingson, Robert

2007-01-01

CIRC aspires to be the successor to ICRCCM (Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models). It is envisioned as an evolving and regularly updated reference source for GCM-type radiative transfer (RT) code evaluation with the principle goal to contribute in the improvement of RT parameterizations. CIRC is jointly endorsed by DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and the GEWEX Radiation Panel (GRP). CIRC's goal is to provide test cases for which GCM RT algorithms should be performing at their best, i.e, well characterized clear-sky and homogeneous, overcast cloudy cases. What distinguishes CIRC from previous intercomparisons is that its pool of cases is based on observed datasets. The bulk of atmospheric and surface input as well as radiative fluxes come from ARM observations as documented in the Broadband Heating Rate Profile (BBHRP) product. BBHRP also provides reference calculations from AER's RRTM RT algorithms that can be used to select the most optimal set of cases and to provide a first-order estimate of our ability to achieve radiative flux closure given the limitations in our knowledge of the atmospheric state.

An Intercomparison of the Deposition Models Used in the CASTNET and CAPMoN Networks

EPA Science Inventory

To assess long-term trends in atmospheric deposition, the U.S. operates the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) and Canada operates the Canadian Air and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CAPMoN). Both networks use modeled dry deposition velocities and measured atmospher...

An intercomparison of models used to simulate the short-range atmospheric dispersion of agricultural ammonia emissions

EPA Science Inventory

Ammonia emitted into the atmosphere from agricultural sources can have an impact on nearby sensitive ecosystems either through elevated ambient concentrations or dry/wet deposition to vegetation and soil surfaces. Short-range atmospheric dispersion models are often used to assess...

Composite Study Of Aerosol Long-Range Transport Events From East Asia And North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, X.; Waliser, D. E.; Guan, B.; Xavier, P.; Petch, J.; Klingaman, N. P.; Woolnough, S.

2011-12-01

While the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) exerts pronounced influences on global climate and weather systems, current general circulation models (GCMs) exhibit rather limited capability in representing this prominent tropical variability mode. Meanwhile, the fundamental physics of the MJO are still elusive. Given the central role of the diabatic heating for prevailing MJO theories and demands for reducing the model deficiencies in simulating the MJO, a global model inter-comparison project on diabatic processes and vertical heating structure associated with the MJO has been coordinated through a joint effort by the WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX YOTC MJO Task Force and GEWEX GASS Program. In this presentation, progress of this model inter-comparison project will be reported, with main focus on climate simulations from about 27 atmosphere-only and coupled GCMs. Vertical structures of heating and diabatic processes associated with the MJO based on multi-model simulations will be presented along with their reanalysis and satellite estimate counterparts. Key processes possibly responsible for a realistic simulation of the MJO, including moisture-convection interaction, gross moist stability, ocean coupling, and surface heat flux, will be discussed.

The Agriculture Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2010-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and world agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Historical period results will spur model improvement and interaction among major modeling groups, while future period results will lead directly to tests of adaptation and mitigation strategies across a range of scales. AgMIP will consist of a multi-scale impact assessment utilizing the latest methods for climate and agricultural scenario generation. Scenarios and modeling protocols will be distributed on the web, and multi-model results will be collated and analyzed to ensure the widest possible coverage of agricultural crops and regions. AgMIP will place regional changes in agricultural production in a global context that reflects new trading opportunities, imbalances, and shortages in world markets resulting from climate change and other driving forces for food supply. Such projections are essential inputs from the Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation (VIA) research community to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (AR5), now underway, and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. They will set the context for local-scale vulnerability and adaptation studies, supply test scenarios for national-scale development of trade policy instruments, provide critical information on changing supply and demand for water resources, and elucidate interactive effects of climate change and land use change. AgMIP will not only provide crucially-needed new global estimates of how climate change will affect food supply and hunger in the agricultural regions of the world, but it will also build the capabilities of developing countries to estimate how climate change will affect their supply and demand for food.

Comprehensive Australasian multicentre dosimetric intercomparison: issues, logistics and recommendations.

PubMed

Ebert, M A; Harrison, K M; Cornes, D; Howlett, S J; Joseph, D J; Kron, T; Hamilton, C S; Denham, J W

2009-02-01

The present paper describes the logistics of the 2004-2008 Australasian Level III Dosimetry Intercomparison. Dosimetric intercomparisons (or 'audits') can be used in radiotherapy to evaluate the accuracy and quality of radiation delivery. An intercomparison was undertaken in New Zealand and Australia to evaluate the feasibility and logistics of ongoing dosimetric intercomparisons that evaluate all steps in the radiotherapy treatment process, known as a 'Level III' intercomparison. The study commenced in 2002 with the establishment of a study team, definition of the study protocol, acquisition of appropriate equipment and recruitment of participating radiotherapy centres. Measurements were undertaken between October 2004 and March 2008, and included collation of data on time, costs and logistics of the study. Forty independent Australian and New Zealand radiotherapy centres agreed to participate. Measurement visits were made to 37 of these centres. Data is presented on the costs of the study and the level of support required. The study involved the participation of 16 staff at the study centre who invested over 4000 hours in the study, and of over 200 professionals at participating centres. Recommendations are provided for future phantom-based intercomparisons. It is hoped that the present paper will be of benefit to any centres or groups contemplating similar activities by identifying the processes involved in establishing the study, the potential hazards and pitfalls, and expected resource requirements.

Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Annual Report and Research Highlights 2011-2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.

2012-01-01

Over the last year, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has continued to advance our GEOS-5-based systems, updating products for both weather and climate applications. We contributed hindcasts and forecasts to the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of seasonal forecasts and the suite of decadal predictions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

Comparing crop growth and carbon budgets simulated across AmeriFlux agricultural sites using the community land model (CLM)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improving process-based crop models is needed to achieve high fidelity forecasts of regional energy, water, and carbon exchange. However, most state-of-the-art Land Surface Models (LSMs) assessed in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison project (CMIP5) simulated crops as simple C3 or...

Sensitivities of Greenland ice sheet volume inferred from an ice sheet adjoint model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbach, P.; Bugnion, V.

2009-04-01

We present a new and original approach to understanding the sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to key model parameters and environmental conditions. At the heart of this approach is the use of an adjoint ice sheet model. Since its introduction by MacAyeal (1992), the adjoint method has become widespread to fit ice stream models to the increasing number and diversity of satellite observations, and to estimate uncertain model parameters such as basal conditions. However, no attempt has been made to extend this method to comprehensive ice sheet models. As a first step toward the use of adjoints of comprehensive three-dimensional ice sheet models we have generated an adjoint of the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS of Greve (1997). The adjoint was generated by means of the automatic differentiation (AD) tool TAF. The AD tool generates exact source code representing the tangent linear and adjoint model of the nonlinear parent model provided. Model sensitivities are given by the partial derivatives of a scalar-valued model diagnostic with respect to the controls, and can be efficiently calculated via the adjoint. By way of example, we determine the sensitivity of the total Greenland ice volume to various control variables, such as spatial fields of basal flow parameters, surface and basal forcings, and initial conditions. Reliability of the adjoint was tested through finite-difference perturbation calculations for various control variables and perturbation regions. Besides confirming qualitative aspects of ice sheet sensitivities, such as expected regional variations, we detect regions where model sensitivities are seemingly unexpected or counter-intuitive, albeit ``real'' in the sense of actual model behavior. An example is inferred regions where sensitivities of ice sheet volume to basal sliding coefficient are positive, i.e. where a local increase in basal sliding parameter increases the ice sheet volume. Similarly, positive ice temperature sensitivities in certain parts of the ice sheet are found (in most regions it is negativ, i.e. an increase in temperature decreases ice sheet volume), the detection of which seems highly unlikely if only conventional perturbation experiments had been used. An effort to generate an efficient adjoint with the newly developed open-source AD tool OpenAD is also under way. Available adjoint code generation tools now open up a variety of novel model applications, notably with regard to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses and ice sheet state estimation or data assimilation.

Assessment and simulation of global terrestrial latent heat flux by synthesis of CMIP5 climate models and surface eddy covariance observations

Treesearch

Yunjun Yao; Shunlin Liang; Xianglan Li; Shaomin Liu; Jiquan Chen; Xiaotong Zhang; Kun Jia; Bo Jiang; Xianhong Xie; Simon Munier; Meng Liu; Jian Yu; Anders Lindroth; Andrej Varlagin; Antonio Raschi; Asko Noormets; Casimiro Pio; Georg Wohlfahrt; Ge Sun; Jean-Christophe Domec; Leonardo Montagnani; Magnus Lund; Moors Eddy; Peter D. Blanken; Thomas Grunwald; Sebastian Wolf; Vincenzo Magliulo

2016-01-01

The latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the globalhydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by a comparison...

FDTD modeling of thin impedance sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luebbers, Raymond; Kunz, Karl

1991-01-01

Thin sheets of resistive or dielectric material are commonly encountered in radar cross section calculations. Analysis of such sheets is simplified by using sheet impedances. It is shown that sheet impedances can be modeled easily and accurately using Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) methods. These sheets are characterized by a discontinuity in the tangential magnetic field on either side of the sheet but no discontinuity in tangential electric field. This continuity, or single valued behavior of the electric field, allows the sheet current to be expressed in terms of an impedance multiplying this electric field.

LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles reconstruct?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, K.; Sueyoshi, T.; Marchenko, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Walsh, J.; Bigelow, N.; Hendricks, A.; Yoshikawa, K.

2013-03-01

Global-scale frozen ground distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present-day (pre-industrial; 0 k) and the LGM (21 k). This direct method was then compared to the earlier indirect method, which categorizes the underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applied to both the PMIP2 (phase II) and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 k showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map, although the soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity among the models partly due to varying complexity of the implemented subsurface processes. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the multi-model analysis was 25.6 million km2 for LGM, in contrast to 12.7 million km2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally, frozen ground increased from 22.5 million km2 to 32.6 million km2. These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble-improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology-also compared better to previous knowledge derived from the geomorphological and geocryological evidences. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial, paleo-, and modern climates will advance our understanding of the functionality and variability of the frozen ground subsystem in the global eco-climate system.

Data assimilation and prognostic whole ice sheet modelling with the variationally derived, higher order, open source, and fully parallel ice sheet model VarGlaS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinkerhoff, D. J.; Johnson, J. V.

2013-07-01

We introduce a novel, higher order, finite element ice sheet model called VarGlaS (Variational Glacier Simulator), which is built on the finite element framework FEniCS. Contrary to standard procedure in ice sheet modelling, VarGlaS formulates ice sheet motion as the minimization of an energy functional, conferring advantages such as a consistent platform for making numerical approximations, a coherent relationship between motion and heat generation, and implicit boundary treatment. VarGlaS also solves the equations of enthalpy rather than temperature, avoiding the solution of a contact problem. Rather than include a lengthy model spin-up procedure, VarGlaS possesses an automated framework for model inversion. These capabilities are brought to bear on several benchmark problems in ice sheet modelling, as well as a 500 yr simulation of the Greenland ice sheet at high resolution. VarGlaS performs well in benchmarking experiments and, given a constant climate and a 100 yr relaxation period, predicts a mass evolution of the Greenland ice sheet that matches present-day observations of mass loss. VarGlaS predicts a thinning in the interior and thickening of the margins of the ice sheet.

Simulating Snow in Canadian Boreal Environments with CLASS for ESM-SnowMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Bartlett, P. A.; Derksen, C.; Ireson, A. M.; Essery, R.

2017-12-01

The ability of land surface schemes to provide realistic simulations of snow cover is necessary for accurate representation of energy and water balances in climate models. Historically, this has been particularly challenging in boreal forests, where poor treatment of both snow masking by forests and vegetation-snow interaction has resulted in biases in simulated albedo and snowpack properties, with subsequent effects on both regional temperatures and the snow albedo feedback in coupled simulations. The SnowMIP (Snow Model Intercomparison Project) series of experiments or `MIPs' was initiated in order to provide assessments of the performance of various snow- and land-surface-models at selected locations, in order to understand the primary factors affecting model performance. Here we present preliminary results of simulations conducted for the third such MIP, ESM-SnowMIP (Earth System Model - Snow Model Intercomparison Project), using the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) at boreal forest sites in central Saskatchewan. We assess the ability of our latest model version (CLASS 3.6.2) to simulate observed snowpack properties (snow water equivalent, density and depth) and above-canopy albedo over 13 winters. We also examine the sensitivity of these simulations to climate forcing at local and regional scales.

Spatial inter-comparison of Top-down emission inventories in European urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trombetti, Marco; Thunis, Philippe; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Clappier, Alain; Couvidat, Florian; Guevara, Marc; Kuenen, Jeroen; López-Aparicio, Susana

2018-01-01

This paper presents an inter-comparison of the main Top-down emission inventories currently used for air quality modelling studies at the European level. The comparison is developed for eleven European cities and compares the distribution of emissions of NOx, SO2, VOC and PPM2.5 from the road transport, residential combustion and industry sectors. The analysis shows that substantial differences in terms of total emissions, sectorial emission shares and spatial distribution exist between the datasets. The possible reasons in terms of downscaling approaches and choice of spatial proxies are analysed and recommendations are provided for each inventory in order to work towards the harmonisation of spatial downscaling and proxy calibration, in particular for policy purposes. The proposed methodology may be useful for the development of consistent and harmonised European-wide inventories with the aim of reducing the uncertainties in air quality modelling activities.

Inter-comparison of automatic rain gauges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nystuen, Jeffrey A.

1994-01-01

The Ocean Acoustics Division (OAD) of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), in cooperation with NOAA/NESDIS and NASA, has deployed six rain gauges for calibration and intercomparison purposes. These instruments include: (1) a weighing rain gauge, (2) a RM Young Model 50202 capacitance rain gauge, (3) a ScTI ORG-705 (long path) optical rain gauge, (4) a ScTI ORG-105 (mini-ORG) optical rain gauge, (5) a Belfort Model 382 tipping bucket rain gauge, and (6) a Distromet RD-69 disdrometer. The system has been running continuously since July 1993. During this time period, roughly 150 events with maximum rainfall rate over 10 mm/hr and 25 events with maximum rainfall rates over 100 mm/hr have been recorded. All rain gauge types have performed well, with intercorrelations 0.9 or higher. However, limitations for each type of rain gauge have been observed.

Modeling the effect of doping on the catalyst-assisted growth and field emission properties of plasma-grown graphene sheet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gupta, Neha; Sharma, Suresh C.; Sharma, Rinku

A theoretical model describing the effect of doping on the plasma-assisted catalytic growth of graphene sheet has been developed. The model accounts the charging rate of the graphene sheet, kinetics of all the plasma species, including the doping species, and the growth rate of graphene nuclei and graphene sheet due to surface diffusion, and accretion of ions on the catalyst nanoparticle. Using the model, it is observed that nitrogen and boron doping can strongly influence the growth and field emission properties of the graphene sheet. The results of the present investigation indicate that nitrogen doping results in reduced thickness andmore » shortened height of the graphene sheet; however, boron doping increases the thickness and height of the graphene sheet. The time evolutions of the charge on the graphene sheet and hydrocarbon number density for nitrogen and boron doped graphene sheet have also been examined. The field emission properties of the graphene sheet have been proposed on the basis of the results obtained. It is concluded that nitrogen doped graphene sheet exhibits better field emission characteristics as compared to undoped and boron doped graphene sheet. The results of the present investigation are consistent with the existing experimental observations.« less

Smoke and Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (SEMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larkin, N. K.; Raffuse, S.; Strand, T.; Solomon, R.; Sullivan, D.; Wheeler, N.

2008-12-01

Fire emissions and smoke impacts from wildland fire are a growing concern due to increasing fire season severity, dwindling tolerance of smoke by the public, tightening air quality regulations, and their role in climate change issues. Unfortunately, while a number of models and modeling system solutions are available to address these issues, the lack of quantitative information on the limitations and difference between smoke and emissions models impedes the use of these tools for real-world applications (JFSP, 2007). We describe a new, open-access project to directly address this issue, the open-access Smoke Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (SEMIP) and invite the community to participate. Preliminary work utilizing the modular BlueSky framework to directly compare fire location and size information, fuel loading amounts, fuel consumption rates, and fire emissions from a number of current models that has found model-to-model variability as high as two orders of magnitude for an individual fire. Fire emissions inventories also show significant variability on both regional and national scales that are dependant on the fire location information used (ground report vs. satellite), the fuel loading maps assumed, and the fire consumption models employed. SEMIP expands on this work and creates an open-access database of model results and observations with the goal of furthering model development and model prediction usability for real-world decision support.

Inter-comparison of source apportionment of PM10 using PMF and CMB in three sites nearby an industrial area in central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cesari, Daniela; Donateo, Antonio; Conte, Marianna; Contini, Daniele

2016-12-01

Receptor models (RMs), based on chemical composition of particulate matter (PM), such as Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF), represent useful tools for determining the impact of PM sources to air quality. This information is useful, especially in areas influenced by anthropogenic activities, to plan mitigation strategies for environmental management. Recent inter-comparison of source apportionment (SA) results showed that one of the difficulties in the comparison of estimated source contributions is the compatibility of the sources, i.e. the chemical profiles of factor/sources used in receptor models. This suggests that SA based on integration of several RMs could give more stable and reliable solutions with respect to a single model. The aim of this work was to perform inter-comparison of PMF (using PMF3.0 and PMF5.0 codes) and CMB outputs, focusing on both source chemical profiles and estimates of source contributions. The dataset included 347 daily PM10 samples collected in three sites in central Italy located near industrial emissions. Samples were chemically analysed for the concentrations of 21 chemical species (NH4+, Ca2 +, Mg2 +, Na+, K+, Mg2 +, SO42 -, NO3-, Cl-, Si, Al, Ti, V, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Br, EC, and OC) used as input of RMs. The approach identified 9 factor/sources: marine, traffic, resuspended dust, biomass burning, secondary sulphate, secondary nitrate, crustal, coal combustion power plant and harbour-industrial. Results showed that the application of constraints in PMF5.0 improved interpretability of profiles and comparability of estimated source contributions with stoichiometric calculations. The inter-comparison of PMF and CMB gave significant differences for secondary nitrate, biomass burning, and harbour-industrial sources, due to non-compatibility of these source profiles that have local specificities. When these site-dependent specificities were taken into account, optimising the input source profiles of CMB, a significant improvement in the comparison of the estimated source contributions with PMF was obtained.

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet.

PubMed

Price, Stephen F; Hoffman, Matthew J; Bonin, Jennifer A; Howat, Ian M; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P; Evans, Katherine J; Kennedy, Joseph H; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G; Tuminaro, Raymond S; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Nowicki, Sophie M J

2017-01-01

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and Description of Models, Simulations and Climate Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamarque, J.-F.; Shindell, D. T.; Naik, V.; Plummer, D.; Josse, B.; Righi, M.; Rumbold, S. T.; Schulz, M.; Skeie, R. B.; Strode, S.;

Airborne sulfur trace species intercomparison campaign: Sulfur dioxide, dimethylsulfide, hydrogen sulfide, carbon disulfide, and carbonyl sulfide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, Gerald L.; Hoell, James M., Jr.; Davis, Douglas D.

1991-01-01

Results from an airborne intercomparison of techniques to measure tropospheric levels of sulfur trace gases are presented. The intercomparison was part of the NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) and was conducted during the summer of 1989. The intercomparisons were conducted on the Wallops Electra aircraft during flights from Wallops Island, Virginia, and Natal, Brazil. Sulfur measurements intercompared included sulfur dioxide (SO2), dimethylsulfide (DMS), hydrogen sulfide (H2S), carbon disulfide (CS2), and carbonyl sulfide (OCS). Measurement techniques ranged from filter collection systems with post-flight analyses to mass spectrometer and gas chromatograph systems employing various methods for measuring and identifying the sulfur gases during flight. Sampling schedules for the techniques ranged from integrated collections over periods as long as 50 minutes to one- to three-minute samples every ten or fifteen minutes. Several of the techniques provided measurements of more than one sulfur gas. Instruments employing different detection principles were involved in each of the sulfur intercomparisons. Also included in the intercomparison measurement scenario were a host of supporting measurements (i.e., ozone, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, total sulfur, aerosols, etc.) for purposes of: (1) interpreting results (i.e., correlation of any noted instrument disagreement with the chemical composition of the measurement environment); and (2) providing supporting chemical data to meet CITE-3 science objectives of studying ozone/sulfur photochemistry, diurnal cycles, etc. The results of the intercomparison study are briefly discussed.

Methods for Validation and Intercomparison of Remote Sensing and In situ Ice Water Measurements: Case Studies from CRYSTAL-FACE and Model Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sayres, D.S.; Pittman, J. V.; Smith, J. B.; Weinstock, E. M.; Anderson, J. G.; Heymsfield, G.; Li, L.; Fridlind, A.; Ackerman, A. S.

2004-01-01

Remote sensing observations, such as those from AURA, are necessary to understand the role of cirrus in determining the radiative and humidity budgets of the upper troposphere. Using these measurements quantitatively requires comparisons with in situ measurements that have previously been validated. However, a direct comparison of remote and in situ measurements is difficult due to the requirement that the spatial and temporal overlap be sufficient in order to guarantee that both instruments are measuring the same air parcel. A difficult as this might be for gas phase intercomparisons, cloud inhomogeneities significantly exacerbate the problem for cloud ice water content measurements. The CRYSTAL-FACE mission provided an opportunity to assess how well such intercomparisons can be performed and to establish flight plans that will be necessary for validation of future satellite instruments. During CRYSTAL-FACE, remote and in situ instruments were placed on different aircraft (NASA's ER-2 and WB-59, and the two planes flew in tandem so that the in situ payload flew in the field of view of the remote instruments. We show here that, even with this type of careful flight planning, it is not always possible to guarantee that remote and in situ instruments are viewing the same air parcel. We use ice water data derived from the in situ Harvard Total Water (HV-TW) instrument, and the remote Goddard Cloud Radar System (CRS) and show that agreement between HV-TW and CRS is a strong function of the horizontal separation and the time delay between the aircraft transects. We also use a cloud model to simulate possible trajectories through a cloud and evaluate the use of statistical analysis in determining the agreement between the two instruments. This type of analysis should guide flight planning for future intercomparison efforts, whether for aircraft or satellite-borne instrumentation.

Atmospheric Ozone 1985. Assessment of our understanding of the processes controlling its present distribution and change, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Topics addressed include: assessment models; model predictions of ozone changes; ozone and temperature trends; trace gas effects on climate; kinetics and photchemical data base; spectroscopic data base (infrared to microwave); instrument intercomparisons and assessments; and monthly mean distribution of ozone and temperature.

Calculations of axisymmetric vortex sheet roll-up using a panel and a filament model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kantelis, J. P.; Widnall, S. E.

1986-01-01

A method for calculating the self-induced motion of a vortex sheet using discrete vortex elements is presented. Vortex panels and vortex filaments are used to simulate two-dimensional and axisymmetric vortex sheet roll-up. A straight forward application using vortex elements to simulate the motion of a disk of vorticity with an elliptic circulation distribution yields unsatisfactroy results where the vortex elements move in a chaotic manner. The difficulty is assumed to be due to the inability of a finite number of discrete vortex elements to model the singularity at the sheet edge and due to large velocity calculation errors which result from uneven sheet stretching. A model of the inner portion of the spiral is introduced to eliminate the difficulty with the sheet edge singularity. The model replaces the outermost portion of the sheet with a single vortex of equivalent circulation and a number of higher order terms which account for the asymmetry of the spiral. The resulting discrete vortex model is applied to both two-dimensional and axisymmetric sheets. The two-dimensional roll-up is compared to the solution for a semi-infinite sheet with good results.

A River Model Intercomparison Project in Preparation for SWOT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, C. H.; Andreadis, K.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Beighley, E.; Boone, A. A.; Yamazaki, D.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Fleischmann, A. S.; Collischonn, W.; Fisher, C. K.; Kim, H.; Biancamaria, S.

2017-12-01

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is currently scheduled to launch at the beginning of next decade. SWOT is expected to retrieve unprecedented measurements of water extent, elevation, and slope in the largest terrestrial water bodies. Such potential transformative information motivates the investigation of our ability to ingest the associated data into continental-scale models of terrestrial hydrology. In preparation for the expected SWOT observations, an inter-comparison of continental-scale river models is being performed. This comparison experiment focuses on four of the world's largest river basins: the Amazon, the Mississippi, the Niger, and the Saint-Lawrence. This ongoing project focuses on two main research questions: 1) How can we best prepare for the expected SWOT continental to global measurements before SWOT even flies?, and 2) What is the added value of including SWOT terrestrial measurements into global hydro models for enhancing our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the climate system? We present here the results of the second year of this project which now includes simulations from six numerical models of rivers over the Mississippi and sheds light on the implications of various modeling choices on simulation quality as well as on the potential impact of SWOT observations.

Solar irradiance reduction to counteract radiative forcing from a quadrupling of CO2: climate responses simulated by four earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, H.; Alterskjær, K.; Karam, D. Bou; Boucher, O.; Jones, A.; Kristjánsson, J. E.; Niemeier, U.; Schulz, M.; Aaheim, A.; Benduhn, F.; Lawrence, M.; Timmreck, C.

2012-06-01

In this study we compare the response of four state-of-the-art Earth system models to climate engineering under scenario G1 of two model intercomparison projects: GeoMIP (Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project) and IMPLICC (EU project "Implications and risks of engineering solar radiation to limit climate change"). In G1, the radiative forcing from an instantaneous quadrupling of the CO2 concentration, starting from the preindustrial level, is balanced by a reduction of the solar constant. Model responses to the two counteracting forcings in G1 are compared to the preindustrial climate in terms of global means and regional patterns and their robustness. While the global mean surface air temperature in G1 remains almost unchanged compared to the control simulation, the meridional temperature gradient is reduced in all models. Another robust response is the global reduction of precipitation with strong effects in particular over North and South America and northern Eurasia. In comparison to the climate response to a quadrupling of CO2 alone, the temperature responses are small in experiment G1. Precipitation responses are, however, in many regions of comparable magnitude but globally of opposite sign.

A panel method study of vortex sheets with special emphasis on sheets of axisymmetric geometry. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sugioka, I.; Widnall, S. E.

1985-01-01

The self induced evolution of a vortex sheet was simulated by modeling the sheet using an integration of discrete elements of vorticity. Replacing small sections of a vortex sheet by flat panels of constant vorticity is found to reproduce more accurately the initial conditions for the Lagrangian simulation technique than replacement by point vortices. The flat panel method for the vortex sheet was then extended to model axisymmetric vortex sheets. The local and far field velocities induced by the axisymmetric panels were obtained using matched asymptotic analysis, and some of the uncertainties involved in other models of the axisymmetric vortex sheet have been eliminated. One important result of this analysis is the determination of the proper choice of core size for a circular vortex filament which may replace a section of an axisymmetric vortex sheet. Roll-up of both two dimensional and axisymmetric vortex sheets was computed using the panel methods developed in the report.

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific objectives and experimental design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-01-01

Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

Quantitative assessment of AOD from 17 CMIP5 models based on satellite-derived AOD over India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Misra, Amit; Kanawade, Vijay P.; Tripathi, Sachchida Nand

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) values from 17 CMIP5 models are compared with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) derived AODs over India. The objective is to identify the cases of successful AOD simulation by CMIP5 models, considering satellite-derived AOD as a benchmark. Six years of AOD data (2000–2005) from MISR and MODIS are processed to create quality-assured gridded AOD maps over India, which are compared with corresponding maps of 17 CMIP5 models at the same grid resolution. Intercomparison of model and satellite data shows that model-AOD is better correlated with MISR-derived AOD than MODIS. The correlation between model-AOD andmore » MISR-AOD is used to segregate the models into three categories identifying their performance in simulating the AOD over India. Maps of correlation between model-AOD and MISR-/MODIS-AOD are generated to provide quantitative information about the intercomparison. The two sets of data are examined for different seasons and years to examine the seasonal and interannual variation in the correlation coefficients. In conclusion, latitudinal and longitudinal variations in AOD as simulated by models are also examined and compared with corresponding variations observed by satellites.« less

Quantitative assessment of AOD from 17 CMIP5 models based on satellite-derived AOD over India

DOE PAGES

Misra, Amit; Kanawade, Vijay P.; Tripathi, Sachchida Nand

2016-08-03

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) values from 17 CMIP5 models are compared with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) derived AODs over India. The objective is to identify the cases of successful AOD simulation by CMIP5 models, considering satellite-derived AOD as a benchmark. Six years of AOD data (2000–2005) from MISR and MODIS are processed to create quality-assured gridded AOD maps over India, which are compared with corresponding maps of 17 CMIP5 models at the same grid resolution. Intercomparison of model and satellite data shows that model-AOD is better correlated with MISR-derived AOD than MODIS. The correlation between model-AOD andmore » MISR-AOD is used to segregate the models into three categories identifying their performance in simulating the AOD over India. Maps of correlation between model-AOD and MISR-/MODIS-AOD are generated to provide quantitative information about the intercomparison. The two sets of data are examined for different seasons and years to examine the seasonal and interannual variation in the correlation coefficients. In conclusion, latitudinal and longitudinal variations in AOD as simulated by models are also examined and compared with corresponding variations observed by satellites.« less

Ice sheet climate modeling: past achievements, ongoing challenges, and future endeavors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenaerts, J.

2017-12-01

Fluctuations in surface mass balance (SMB) mask out a substantial portion of contemporary Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. That implies that we need accurate, consistent, and long-term SMB time series to isolate the mass loss signal. This in turn requires understanding of the processes driving SMB, and how they interplay. The primary controls on present-day ice sheet SMB are snowfall, which is regulated by large-scale atmospheric variability, and surface meltwater production at the ice sheet's edges, which is a complex result of atmosphere-surface interactions. Additionally, wind-driven snow redistribution and sublimation are large SMB contributors on the downslope areas of the ice sheets. Climate models provide an integrated framework to simulate all these individual ice sheet components. Recent developments in RACMO2, a regional climate model bound by atmospheric reanalyses, have focused on enhancing horizontal resolution, including blowing snow, snow albedo, and meltwater processes. Including these physics not only enhanced our understanding of the ice sheet climate system, but also enabled to obtain increasingly accurate estimates of ice sheet SMB. However, regional models are not suitable to capture the mutual interactions between ice sheet and the remainder of the global climate system in transient climates. To take that next step, global climate models are essential. In this talk, I will highlight our present work on improving ice sheet climate in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In particular, we focus on an improved representation of polar firn, ice sheet clouds, and precipitation. For this exercise, we extensively use field observations, remote sensing data, as well as RACMO2. Next, I will highlight how CESM is used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet SMB, its drivers, and past and present changes.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

2016-09-28

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.« less

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate amore » wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.« less

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-09-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017-2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018-2020 period.

Coupled ice sheet - climate simulations of the last glacial inception and last glacial maximum with a model of intermediate complexity that includes a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiquet, Aurélien; Roche, Didier M.

2017-04-01

Comprehensive fully coupled ice sheet - climate models allowing for multi-millenia transient simulations are becoming available. They represent powerful tools to investigate ice sheet - climate interactions during the repeated retreats and advances of continental ice sheets of the Pleistocene. However, in such models, most of the time, the spatial resolution of the ice sheet model is one order of magnitude lower than the one of the atmospheric model. As such, orography-induced precipitation is only poorly represented. In this work, we briefly present the most recent improvements of the ice sheet - climate coupling within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM. On the one hand, from the native atmospheric resolution (T21), we have included a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture at the ice sheet model resolution (40 km x 40 km). This downscaling accounts for feedbacks of sub-grid precipitation on large scale energy and water budgets. From the sub-grid atmospheric variables, we compute an ice sheet surface mass balance required by the ice sheet model. On the other hand, we also explicitly use oceanic temperatures to compute sub-shelf melting at a given depth. Based on palaeo evidences for rate of change of eustatic sea level, we discuss the capability of our new model to correctly simulate the last glacial inception ( 116 kaBP) and the ice volume of the last glacial maximum ( 21 kaBP). We show that the model performs well in certain areas (e.g. Canadian archipelago) but some model biases are consistent over time periods (e.g. Kara-Barents sector). We explore various model sensitivities (e.g. initial state, vegetation, albedo) and we discuss the importance of the downscaling of precipitation for ice nucleation over elevated area and for the surface mass balance of larger ice sheets.

Manufacture and calibration of optical supersmooth roughness artifacts for intercomparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ringel, Gabriele A.; Kratz, Frank; Schmitt, Dirk-Roger; Mangelsdorf, Juergen; Creuzet, Francois; Garratt, John D.

1995-09-01

Intercomparison roughness measurements have been carried out on supersmooth artifacts fabricated from BK7, fused silica, and Zerodur. The surface parameters were determined using the optical heterodyne profiler Z5500 (Zygo), a special prototype of the mechanical profiler Nanostep (Rank Taylor Hobson), and an Atomic Force Microscope (Park Scientific Instruments) with an improved acquisition technique. The intercomparison was performed after the range of collected spatial wavelengths for each instrument was adjusted using digital filtering techniques. It is demonstrated for different roughness ranges that the applied superpolishing techniques yield supersmooth artifacts which can be used for more intercomparisons. More than 100 samples were investigated. Criteria were developed to select artifacts from the sample stock.

A Description of Local Time Asymmetries in the Kronian Current Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nickerson, J. S.; Hansen, K. C.; Gombosi, T. I.

2012-12-01

Cassini observations imply that Saturn's magnetospheric current sheet is displaced northward above the rotational equator [C.S. Arridge et al., Warping of Saturn's magnetospheric and magnetotail current sheets, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, August 2008]. Arridge et al. show that this hinging of the current sheet above the equator occurs over the noon, midnight, and dawn local time sectors. They present an azimuthally independent model to describe this paraboloid-like geometry. We have used our global MHD model, BATS-R-US/SWMF, to study Saturn's magnetospheric current sheet under various solar wind dynamic pressure and solar zenith angle conditions. We show that under reasonable conditions the current sheet does take on the basic shape of the Arridge model in the noon, midnight, and dawn sectors. However, the hinging distance parameter used in the Arridge model is not a constant and does in fact vary in Saturn local time. We recommend that the Arridge model should be adjusted to account for this azimuthal dependence. Arridge et al. does not discuss the shape of the current sheet in the dusk sector due to an absence of data but does presume that the current sheet will assume the same geometry in this region. On the contrary, our model shows that this is not the case. On the dusk side the current sheet hinges (aggressively) southward and cannot be accounted for by the Arridge model. We will present results from our simulations showing the deviation from axisymmetry and the general behavior of the current sheet under different conditions.

Modelling the Climate - Greenland Ice Sheet Interaction in the Coupled Ice-sheet/Climate Model EC-EARTH - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Madsen, M. S.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Svendsen, S. H.; Adalgeirsdottir, G.

2014-12-01

Recent observations show that the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass with an increasing speed during the past decades. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. A fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS has recently been developed. The model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consists of the EC-EARTH, an atmosphere, ocean and sea ice model system, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The coupling of PISM includes a modified surface physical parameterization in EC-EARTH adapted to the land ice surface over glaciated regions in Greenland. The PISM ice sheet model is forced with the surface mass balance (SMB) directly computed inside the EC-EARTH atmospheric module and accounting for the precipitation, the surface evaporation, and the melting of snow and ice over land ice. PISM returns the simulated basal melt, ice discharge and ice cover (extent and thickness) as boundary conditions to EC-EARTH. This coupled system is mass and energy conserving without being constrained by any anomaly correction or flux adjustment, and hence is suitable for investigation of ice sheet - climate feedbacks. Three multi-century experiments for warm climate scenarios under (1) the RCP85 climate forcing, (2) an abrupt 4xCO2 and (3) an idealized 1% per year CO2 increase are performed using the coupled model system. The experiments are compared with their counterparts of the standard CMIP5 simulations (without the interactive ice sheet) to evaluate the performance of the coupled system and to quantify the GrIS feedbacks. In particular, the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under the warm climate and its impacts on the climate system are investigated. Freshwater fluxes from the Greenland ice sheet melt to the Arctic and North Atlantic basin and their influence on the ocean stratification and ocean circulation are analysed. The changes in the surface climate and the atmospheric circulation associated with the impact of the Greenland ice sheet changes are quantified. The interaction between the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea ice is also examined.

Investigation on the individual contributions of N-H...O=C and C-H...O=C interactions to the binding energies of beta-sheet models.

PubMed

Wang, Chang-Sheng; Sun, Chang-Liang

2010-04-15

In this article, the binding energies of 16 antiparallel and parallel beta-sheet models are estimated using the analytic potential energy function we proposed recently and the results are compared with those obtained from MP2, AMBER99, OPLSAA/L, and CHARMM27 calculations. The comparisons indicate that the analytic potential energy function can produce reasonable binding energies for beta-sheet models. Further comparisons suggest that the binding energy of the beta-sheet models might come mainly from dipole-dipole attractive and repulsive interactions and VDW interactions between the two strands. The dipole-dipole attractive and repulsive interactions are further obtained in this article. The total of N-H...H-N and C=O...O=C dipole-dipole repulsive interaction (the secondary electrostatic repulsive interaction) in the small ring of the antiparallel beta-sheet models is estimated to be about 6.0 kcal/mol. The individual N-H...O=C dipole-dipole attractive interaction is predicted to be -6.2 +/- 0.2 kcal/mol in the antiparallel beta-sheet models and -5.2 +/- 0.6 kcal/mol in the parallel beta-sheet models. The individual C(alpha)-H...O=C attractive interaction is -1.2 +/- 0.2 kcal/mol in the antiparallel beta-sheet models and -1.5 +/- 0.2 kcal/mol in the parallel beta-sheet models. These values are important in understanding the interactions at protein-protein interfaces and developing a more accurate force field for peptides and proteins. 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization

DOE PAGES

Eyring, Veronika; Bony, Sandrine; Meehl, Gerald A.; ...

2016-05-26

By coordinating the design and distribution of global climate model simulations of the past, current, and future climate, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become one of the foundational elements of climate science. However, the need to address an ever-expanding range of scientific questions arising from more and more research communities has made it necessary to revise the organization of CMIP. After a long and wide community consultation, a new and more federated structure has been put in place. It consists of three major elements: (1) a handful of common experiments, the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) andmore » CMIP historical simulations (1850–near present) that will maintain continuity and help document basic characteristics of models across different phases of CMIP; (2) common standards, coordination, infrastructure, and documentation that will facilitate the distribution of model outputs and the characterization of the model ensemble; and (3) an ensemble of CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) that will be specific to a particular phase of CMIP (now CMIP6) and that will build on the DECK and CMIP historical simulations to address a large range of specific questions and fill the scientific gaps of the previous CMIP phases. The DECK and CMIP historical simulations, together with the use of CMIP data standards, will be the entry cards for models participating in CMIP. Participation in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs by individual modelling groups will be at their own discretion and will depend on their scientific interests and priorities. With the Grand Science Challenges of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) as its scientific backdrop, CMIP6 will address three broad questions: – How does the Earth system respond to forcing? – What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? – How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? This CMIP6 overview paper presents the background and rationale for the new structure of CMIP, provides a detailed description of the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations, and includes a brief introduction to the 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs.« less

Metafitting: Weight optimization for least-squares fitting of PTTI data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Rob J.; Boulanger, J.-S.

1995-01-01

For precise time intercomparisons between a master frequency standard and a slave time scale, we have found it useful to quantitatively compare different fitting strategies by examining the standard uncertainty in time or average frequency. It is particularly useful when designing procedures which use intermittent intercomparisons, with some parameterized fit used to interpolate or extrapolate from the calibrating intercomparisons. We use the term 'metafitting' for the choices that are made before a fitting procedure is operationally adopted. We present methods for calculating the standard uncertainty for general, weighted least-squares fits and a method for optimizing these weights for a general noise model suitable for many PTTI applications. We present the results of the metafitting of procedures for the use of a regular schedule of (hypothetical) high-accuracy frequency calibration of a maser time scale. We have identified a cumulative series of improvements that give a significant reduction of the expected standard uncertainty, compared to the simplest procedure of resetting the maser synthesizer after each calibration. The metafitting improvements presented include the optimum choice of weights for the calibration runs, optimized over a period of a week or 10 days.

Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2016-12-01

Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few centuries to obtain robust estimates of the contribution of ice sheet melt to SLR.

A Statistical Model of the Magnetotail Neutral Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Sudong; Zhang, Tielong; Baumjohann, Wolfgang; Nakamura, Rumi; Ge, Yasong; Du, Aimin; Wang, Guoqiang; Lu, Quanming

2015-04-01

The neutral sheet of the magnetotail is characterized by weak magnetic field, strong cross tail current, and a reversal of the magnetic field direction across it. The dynamics of the earth's magnetosphere is greatly influenced by physical processes that occur near the neutral sheet. However, the exact position of the neutral sheet is variable in time. It is therefore essential to have a reliable estimate of the average position of the neutral sheet. Magnetic field data from ten years of Cluster, nineteen years of Geotail, four years of TC 1, and seven years of THEMIS observations have been incorporated to obtain a model of the magnetotail neutral sheet. All data in aberrated GSM (Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric) coordinate system are normalized to the same solar wind pressure condition. The shape and position of the neutral sheet, illustrated directly by the separator of positive and negative Bx on the YZ cross sections, are fitted with a displaced ellipse model. It is consistent with previous studies that the neutral sheet becomes curvier in the YZ cross section when the dipole tilt increases, yet our model shows the curviest neutral sheet compared with previous models. The new model reveals a hinging distance very close to 10 RE at a reference solar wind dynamic pressure of 2 nPa. We find that the earth dipole tilt angle not only affects the neutral sheet configuration in the YZ cross section but also in the XZ cross section. The neutral sheet becomes more tilting in the XZ cross section when the dipole tilt increases. The effect of an interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) penetration is studied, and an IMF By-related twisting of about 3° is found. Anticlockwise twisting of the neutral sheet is observed, looking along the downtail direction, for a positive IMF By, and clockwise twisting of the neutral sheet for a negative IMF By.

Invited Article: Radon and thoron intercomparison experiments for integrated monitors at NIRS, Japan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janik, M., E-mail: mirek@fml.nirs.go.jp; Ishikawa, T.; Omori, Y.

Inhalation of radon ({sup 222}Rn) and its short-lived decay products and of products of the thoron ({sup 220}Rn) series accounts for more than half of the effective dose from natural radiation sources. At this time, many countries have begun large-scale radon and thoron surveys and many different measurement methods and instruments are used in these studies. Consequently, it is necessary to improve and standardize technical methods of measurements and to verify quality assurance by intercomparisons between laboratories. Four international intercomparisons for passive integrating radon and thoron monitors were conducted at the NIRS (National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Japan). Radon exercisesmore » were carried out in the 24.4 m{sup 3} inner volume walk-in radon chamber that has systems to control radon concentration, temperature, and humidity. Moreover, the NIRS thoron chamber with a 150 dm{sup 3} inner volume was utilized to provide three thoron intercomparisons. At present, the NIRS is the only laboratory world-wide that has carried out periodic thoron intercomparison of passive monitors. Fifty laboratories from 26 countries participated in the radon intercomparison, using six types of detectors (charcoal, CR-39, LR 115, polycarbonate film, electret plate, and silicon photodiode). Eighteen laboratories from 12 countries participated in the thoron intercomparisons, using two etch-track types (CR-39 and polycarbonate) detectors. The tests were made under one to three different exposures to radon and thoron. The data presented in this paper indicated that the performance quality of laboratories for radon measurement has been gradually increasing. Results of thoron exercises showed that the quality for thoron measurements still needs further development and additional studies are needed to improve its measuring methods. The present paper provides a summary of all radon and thoron international intercomparisons done at NIRS from 2007 to date and it describes the present status on radon and thoron passive, one-time cycle monitors.« less

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H.; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G.; Tuminaro, Raymond S.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

2017-01-01

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of < 1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quanti- tative metricsmore » for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find 10 that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CMCT as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.« less

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

DOE PAGES

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; ...

2017-01-17

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quanti- tative metricsmore » for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find 10 that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CMCT as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.« less

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H.; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G.; Tuminaro, Raymond S.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

2018-01-01

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework – the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) – that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation. PMID:29697704

An Ice Sheet Model Validation Framework for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey R.; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.;

Assessing long-term hydrologic impact of climate change using ensemble approach and comparison with Global Gridded Model-A case study on Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Potential impacts of climate change on hydrologic components of Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed were assessed using climate datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Historical and future ensembles of downscaled precipitation an...

An inter-comparison of PM10 source apportionment using PCA and PMF receptor models in three European sites.

PubMed

Cesari, Daniela; Amato, F; Pandolfi, M; Alastuey, A; Querol, X; Contini, D

2016-08-01

Source apportionment of aerosol is an important approach to investigate aerosol formation and transformation processes as well as to assess appropriate mitigation strategies and to investigate causes of non-compliance with air quality standards (Directive 2008/50/CE). Receptor models (RMs) based on chemical composition of aerosol measured at specific sites are a useful, and widely used, tool to perform source apportionment. However, an analysis of available studies in the scientific literature reveals heterogeneities in the approaches used, in terms of "working variables" such as the number of samples in the dataset and the number of chemical species used as well as in the modeling tools used. In this work, an inter-comparison of PM10 source apportionment results obtained at three European measurement sites is presented, using two receptor models: principal component analysis coupled with multi-linear regression analysis (PCA-MLRA) and positive matrix factorization (PMF). The inter-comparison focuses on source identification, quantification of source contribution to PM10, robustness of the results, and how these are influenced by the number of chemical species available in the datasets. Results show very similar component/factor profiles identified by PCA and PMF, with some discrepancies in the number of factors. The PMF model appears to be more suitable to separate secondary sulfate and secondary nitrate with respect to PCA at least in the datasets analyzed. Further, some difficulties have been observed with PCA in separating industrial and heavy oil combustion contributions. Commonly at all sites, the crustal contributions found with PCA were larger than those found with PMF, and the secondary inorganic aerosol contributions found by PCA were lower than those found by PMF. Site-dependent differences were also observed for traffic and marine contributions. The inter-comparison of source apportionment performed on complete datasets (using the full range of available chemical species) and incomplete datasets (with reduced number of chemical species) allowed to investigate the sensitivity of source apportionment (SA) results to the working variables used in the RMs. Results show that, at both sites, the profiles and the contributions of the different sources calculated with PMF are comparable within the estimated uncertainties indicating a good stability and robustness of PMF results. In contrast, PCA outputs are more sensitive to the chemical species present in the datasets. In PCA, the crustal contributions are higher in the incomplete datasets and the traffic contributions are significantly lower for incomplete datasets.

Greenland Regional and Ice Sheet-wide Geometry Sensitivity to Boundary and Initial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, L. C.; Narayanan, S. H. K.; Greve, R.; Heimbach, P.

2017-12-01

Ice sheet and glacier model outputs require inputs from uncertainly known initial and boundary conditions, and other parameters. Conservation and constitutive equations formalize the relationship between model inputs and outputs, and the sensitivity of model-derived quantities of interest (e.g., ice sheet volume above floatation) to model variables can be obtained via the adjoint model of an ice sheet. We show how one particular ice sheet model, SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets), depends on these inputs through comprehensive adjoint-based sensitivity analyses. SICOPOLIS discretizes the shallow-ice and shallow-shelf approximations for ice flow, and is well-suited for paleo-studies of Greenland and Antarctica, among other computational domains. The adjoint model of SICOPOLIS was developed via algorithmic differentiation, facilitated by the source transformation tool OpenAD (developed at Argonne National Lab). While model sensitivity to various inputs can be computed by costly methods involving input perturbation simulations, the time-dependent adjoint model of SICOPOLIS delivers model sensitivities to initial and boundary conditions throughout time at lower cost. Here, we explore both the sensitivities of the Greenland Ice Sheet's entire and regional volumes to: initial ice thickness, precipitation, basal sliding, and geothermal flux over the Holocene epoch. Sensitivity studies such as described here are now accessible to the modeling community, based on the latest version of SICOPOLIS that has been adapted for OpenAD to generate correct and efficient adjoint code.

Benefits of Sharing Information: Supermodel Ensemble and Applications in South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, P. L.

2006-05-01

A model intercomparison program involving a large number of academic and operational institutions has been implemented in South America since 2003, motivated by the SALLJEX Intercomparison Program in 2003 (a research program focused on the identification of the role of the Andes low level jet moisture transport from the Amazon to the Plata basin) and the WMO/THORPEX (www.wmo.int/thorpex) goals to improve predictability through the proper combination of numerical weather forecasts. This program also explores the potential predictability associated with the combination of a large number of possible scenarios in the time scale of a few days to up to 15 days. Five academic institutions and five operational forecasting centers in several countries in South America, 1 academic institution in the USA, and the main global forecasting centers (NCEP, UKMO, ECMWF) agreed to provide numerical products based on operational and experimental models. The metric for model validation is concentrated on the fit of the forecast to surface observations. Meteorological data from airports, synoptic stations operated by national weather services, automatic data platforms maintained by different institutions, the PIRATA buoys etc are all collected through LDM/NCAR or direct transmission. Approximately 40 models outputs are available on a daily basis, twice a day. A simple procedure based on data assimilation principles was quite successful in combining the available forecasts in order to produce temperature, dew point, wind, pressure and precipitation forecasts at station points in S. America. The procedure is based on removing each model bias at the observational point and a weighted average based on the mean square error of the forecasts. The base period for estimating the bias and mean square error is of the order of 15 to 30 days. Products of the intercomparison model program and the optimal statistical combination of the available forecasts are public and available in real time (www.master.iag.usp.br/). Monitoring of the use of the products reveal a growing trend in the last year (reaching about 10.000 accesses per day in recent months). The intercomparison program provides a rich data set for educational products (real time use in Synoptic Meteorology and Numerical Weather Forecasting lectures), operational weather forecasts in national or regional weather centers and for research purposes. During the first phase of the program it was difficult to convince potential participants to share the information in the public homepage. However, as the system evolved, more and more institutions became associated with the program. The general opinion of the participants is that the system provides an unified metric for evaluation, a forum for discussion of the physical origin of the model forecast differences and therefore improvement of the quality of the numerical guidance.

Nonlinear Dynamics of Non-uniform Current-Vortex Sheets in Magnetohydrodynamic Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsuoka, C.; Nishihara, K.; Sano, T.

2017-04-01

A theoretical model is proposed to describe fully nonlinear dynamics of interfaces in two-dimensional MHD flows based on an idea of non-uniform current-vortex sheet. Application of vortex sheet model to MHD flows has a crucial difficulty because of non-conservative nature of magnetic tension. However, it is shown that when a magnetic field is initially parallel to an interface, the concept of vortex sheet can be extended to MHD flows (current-vortex sheet). Two-dimensional MHD flows are then described only by a one-dimensional Lagrange parameter on the sheet. It is also shown that bulk magnetic field and velocity can be calculated from their values on the sheet. The model is tested by MHD Richtmyer-Meshkov instability with sinusoidal vortex sheet strength. Two-dimensional ideal MHD simulations show that the nonlinear dynamics of a shocked interface with density stratification agrees fairly well with that for its corresponding potential flow. Numerical solutions of the model reproduce properly the results of the ideal MHD simulations, such as the roll-up of spike, exponential growth of magnetic field, and its saturation and oscillation. Nonlinear evolution of the interface is found to be determined by the Alfvén and Atwood numbers. Some of their dependence on the sheet dynamics and magnetic field amplification are discussed. It is shown by the model that the magnetic field amplification occurs locally associated with the nonlinear dynamics of the current-vortex sheet. We expect that our model can be applicable to a wide variety of MHD shear flows.

The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, H. E.; Jackson, D. R.; Bekki, S.; Bormann, N.; Errera, Q.; Geer, A. J.; Lahoz, W. A.; Rharmili, S.

2008-07-01

This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET) project. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL) and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II). The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in the intercomparison, but are discussed separately. The Met Office results highlight the pitfalls in humidity assimilation, and provide lessons that should be learnt by developers of stratospheric humidity assimilation systems. In particular, they underline the importance of the background error covariances in generating a realistic troposphere to mesosphere water vapour analysis.

Model Intercomparison of CCN-Limited Arctic Clouds During ASCOS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Robin; Dearden, Chris; Dimetrelos, Antonios; Eirund, Gesa; Possner, Anna; Raatikainen, Tomi; Loewe, Katharina; Hill, Adrian; Shipway, Ben; Connolly, Paul; Ekman, Annica; Hoose, Corinna; Laaksonen, Ari; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Kolmonen, Pekka; Saponaro, Giulia; Field, Paul; Carlsaw, Ken

2017-04-01

Future decreases in Arctic sea ice are expected to increase fluxes of aerosol and precursor gases from the open ocean surface within the Arctic. The resulting increase in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations would be expected to result in increased cloud albedo (Struthers et al, 2011), leading to potentially large changes in radiative forcings. However, Browse et al. (2014) have shown that these increases in condensable material could also result in the growth of existing particles to sizes where they are more efficiently removed by wet deposition in drizzling stratocumulus clouds, ultimately decreasing CCN concentrations in the high Arctic. Their study was limited in that it did not simulate alterations of dynamics or cloud properties due to either changes in heat and moisture fluxes following sea­-ice loss or changing aerosol concentrations. Taken together, these results show that significant uncertainties remain in trying to quantify aerosol­-cloud processes in the Arctic system. The current representation of these processes in global climate models is most likely insufficient to realistically simulate long­-term changes. In order to better understand the microphysical processes currently governing Arctic clouds, we perform a model intercomparison of summertime high Arctic (>80N) clouds observed during the 2008 ASCOS campaign. The intercomparison includes results from three large eddy simulation models (UCLALES-SALSA, COSMO-LES, and MIMICA) and three numerical weather prediction models (COSMO-NWP, WRF, and UM-CASIM). The results of these experiments will be used as a basis for sensitivity studies on the impact of sea-ice loss on Arctic clouds through changes in aerosol and precursor emissions as well as changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Browse, J., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14(14), 7543-7557, doi:10.5194/acp-14-7543-2014, 2014. Struthers, H., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11(7), 3459-3477, doi:10.5194/acp-11-3459-2011, 2011.

Quantifying Uncertainty in the Greenland Surface Mass Balance Elevation Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, T.

2015-12-01

As the shape of the Greenland ice sheet responds to changes in surface mass balance (SMB) and dynamics, it affects the surface mass balance through the atmospheric lapse rate and by altering atmospheric circulation patterns. Positive degree day models include simplified representations of this feedback, but it is difficult to simulate with state-of-the-art models because it requires coupling of regional climate models with dynamical ice sheet models, which is technically challenging. This difficulty, along with the high computational expense of regional climate models, also drastically limits opportunities for exploring the impact of modelling uncertainties on sea level projections. We present a parameterisation of the SMB-elevation feedback in the MAR regional climate model that provides a far easier and quicker estimate than atmosphere-ice sheet model coupling, which can be used with any ice sheet model. This allows us to use ensembles of different parameter values and ice sheet models to assess the effect of uncertainty in the feedback and ice sheet model structure on future sea level projections. We take a Bayesian approach to uncertainty in the feedback parameterisation, scoring the results from multiple possible "SMB lapse rates" according to how well they reproduce a MAR simulation with altered ice sheet topography. We test the impact of the resulting parameterisation on sea level projections using five ice sheet models forced by MAR (in turned forced by two different global climate models) under the emissions scenario A1B. The estimated additional sea level contribution due to the SMB-elevation feedback is 4.3% at 2100 (95% credibility interval 1.8-6.9%), and 9.6% at 2200 (3.6-16.0%).

Intermodel spread of the double-ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs tied to land surface temperature in AMIP GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wenyu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2017-08-01

Global climate models (GCMs) have long suffered from biases of excessive tropical precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The severity of the double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias, defined here as the interhemispheric difference in zonal mean tropical precipitation, varies strongly among models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Models with a more severe double-ITCZ bias feature warmer tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in the SH, coupled with weaker southeast trades. While previous studies focus on coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, here we show that the intermodel spread in the severity of the double-ITCZ bias is closely related to land surface temperature biases, which can be further traced back to those in the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. By perturbing land temperature in models, we demonstrate that cooler land can indeed lead to a more severe double-ITCZ bias by inducing the above coupled SST-trade wind pattern in the tropics. The response to land temperature can be consistently explained from both the dynamic and energetic perspectives. Although this intermodel spread from the land temperature variation does not account for the ensemble model mean double-ITCZ bias, identifying the land temperature effect provides insights into simulating a realistic ITCZ for the right reasons.

Next Generation Climate Change Experiments Needed to Advance Knowledge and for Assessment of CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Katzenberger, John; Arnott, James; Wright, Alyson

2014-10-30

The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Next generation climate change experiments needed to advance knowledge and for assessment of CMIP6,” on August 4-9, 2013 in Aspen, CO. Jerry Meehl (NCAR), Richard Moss (PNNL), and Karl Taylor (LLNL) served as co-chairs for the workshop which included the participation of 32 scientists representing most of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 160 participant days. In August 2013, AGCI gathered a high level meeting of representatives from major climate modeling centers around the world to assess achievements and lessons learned from the most recent generationmore » of coordinated modeling experiments known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – 5 (CMIP5) as well as to scope out the science questions and coordination structure desired for the next anticipated phase of modeling experiments called CMIP6. The workshop allowed for reflection on the coordination of the CMIP5 process as well as intercomparison of model results, such as were assessed in the most recent IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 1. For example, this slide from Masahiro Watanabe examines performance on a range of models capturing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).« less

Sensitivity of an Antarctic Ice Sheet Model to Sub-Ice-Shelf Melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipscomb, W. H.; Leguy, G.; Urban, N. M.; Berdahl, M.

2017-12-01

Theory and observations suggest that marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet could retreat rapidly under ocean warming and increased melting beneath ice shelves. Numerical models of marine ice sheets vary widely in sensitivity, depending on grid resolution and the parameterization of key processes (e.g., calving and hydrofracture). Here we study the sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheet to ocean warming and sub-shelf melting in standalone simulations of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). Melt rates either are prescribed based on observations and high-resolution ocean model output, or are derived from a plume model forced by idealized ocean temperature profiles. In CISM, we vary the model resolution (between 1 and 8 km), Stokes approximation (shallow-shelf, depth-integrated higher-order, or 3D higher-order) and calving scheme to create an ensemble of plausible responses to sub-shelf melting. This work supports a broader goal of building statistical and reduced models that can translate large-scale Earth-system model projections to changes in Antarctic ocean temperatures and ice sheet discharge, thus better quantifying uncertainty in Antarctic-sourced sea-level rise.

Implementation of higher-order vertical finite elements in ISSM v4.13 for improved ice sheet flow modeling over paleoclimate timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuzzone, Joshua K.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Larour, Eric; Schlegel, Nicole; Seroussi, Helene

2018-05-01

Paleoclimate proxies are being used in conjunction with ice sheet modeling experiments to determine how the Greenland ice sheet responded to past changes, particularly during the last deglaciation. Although these comparisons have been a critical component in our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet sensitivity to past warming, they often rely on modeling experiments that favor minimizing computational expense over increased model physics. Over Paleoclimate timescales, simulating the thermal structure of the ice sheet has large implications on the modeled ice viscosity, which can feedback onto the basal sliding and ice flow. To accurately capture the thermal field, models often require a high number of vertical layers. This is not the case for the stress balance computation, however, where a high vertical resolution is not necessary. Consequently, since stress balance and thermal equations are generally performed on the same mesh, more time is spent on the stress balance computation than is otherwise necessary. For these reasons, running a higher-order ice sheet model (e.g., Blatter-Pattyn) over timescales equivalent to the paleoclimate record has not been possible without incurring a large computational expense. To mitigate this issue, we propose a method that can be implemented within ice sheet models, whereby the vertical interpolation along the z axis relies on higher-order polynomials, rather than the traditional linear interpolation. This method is tested within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) using quadratic and cubic finite elements for the vertical interpolation on an idealized case and a realistic Greenland configuration. A transient experiment for the ice thickness evolution of a single-dome ice sheet demonstrates improved accuracy using the higher-order vertical interpolation compared to models using the linear vertical interpolation, despite having fewer degrees of freedom. This method is also shown to improve a model's ability to capture sharp thermal gradients in an ice sheet particularly close to the bed, when compared to models using a linear vertical interpolation. This is corroborated in a thermal steady-state simulation of the Greenland ice sheet using a higher-order model. In general, we find that using a higher-order vertical interpolation decreases the need for a high number of vertical layers, while dramatically reducing model runtime for transient simulations. Results indicate that when using a higher-order vertical interpolation, runtimes for a transient ice sheet relaxation are upwards of 5 to 7 times faster than using a model which has a linear vertical interpolation, and this thus requires a higher number of vertical layers to achieve a similar result in simulated ice volume, basal temperature, and ice divide thickness. The findings suggest that this method will allow higher-order models to be used in studies investigating ice sheet behavior over paleoclimate timescales at a fraction of the computational cost than would otherwise be needed for a model using a linear vertical interpolation.

The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofverstrom, Marcus; Liakka, Johan

2018-04-01

Coupled climate-ice sheet simulations have been growing in popularity in recent years. Experiments of this type are however challenging as ice sheets evolve over multi-millennial timescales, which is beyond the practical integration limit of most Earth system models. A common method to increase model throughput is to trade resolution for computational efficiency (compromise accuracy for speed). Here we analyze how the resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) influences the simulation quality in a stand-alone ice sheet model. Four identical AGCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were run at different horizontal resolutions: T85 (1.4°), T42 (2.8°), T31 (3.8°), and T21 (5.6°). These simulations were subsequently used as forcing of an ice sheet model. While the T85 climate forcing reproduces the LGM ice sheets to a high accuracy, the intermediate resolution cases (T42 and T31) fail to build the Eurasian ice sheet. The T21 case fails in both Eurasia and North America. Sensitivity experiments using different surface mass balance parameterizations improve the simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet in the T42 case, but the compromise is a substantial ice buildup in Siberia. The T31 and T21 cases do not improve in the same way in Eurasia, though the latter simulates the continent-wide Laurentide ice sheet in North America. The difficulty to reproduce the LGM ice sheets in the T21 case is in broad agreement with previous studies using low-resolution atmospheric models, and is caused by a substantial deterioration of the model climate between the T31 and T21 resolutions. It is speculated that this deficiency may demonstrate a fundamental problem with using low-resolution atmospheric models in these types of experiments.

Intercomparison of three microwave/infrared high resolution line-by-line radiative transfer codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreier, Franz; Milz, Mathias; Buehler, Stefan A.; von Clarmann, Thomas

2018-05-01

An intercomparison of three line-by-line (lbl) codes developed independently for atmospheric radiative transfer and remote sensing - ARTS, GARLIC, and KOPRA - has been performed for a thermal infrared nadir sounding application assuming a HIRS-like (High resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder) setup. Radiances for the 19 HIRS infrared channels and a set of 42 atmospheric profiles from the "Garand dataset" have been computed. The mutual differences of the equivalent brightness temperatures are presented and possible causes of disagreement are discussed. In particular, the impact of path integration schemes and atmospheric layer discretization is assessed. When the continuum absorption contribution is ignored because of the different implementations, residuals are generally in the sub-Kelvin range and smaller than 0.1 K for some window channels (and all atmospheric models and lbl codes). None of the three codes turned out to be perfect for all channels and atmospheres. Remaining discrepancies are attributed to different lbl optimization techniques. Lbl codes seem to have reached a maturity in the implementation of radiative transfer that the choice of the underlying physical models (line shape models, continua etc) becomes increasingly relevant.

Forward Model Studies of Water Vapor Using Scanning Microwave Radiometers, Global Positioning System, and Radiosondes during the Cloudiness Intercomparison Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mattioli, Vinia; Westwater, Ed R.; Gutman, S.

2005-05-01

Brightness temperatures computed from five absorption models and radiosonde observations were analyzed by comparing them with measurements from three microwave radiometers at 23.8 and 31.4 GHz. Data were obtained during the Cloudiness Inter-Comparison experiment at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program's (ARM) site in North-Central Oklahoma in 2003. The radiometers were calibrated using two procedures, the so-called instantaneous ?tipcal? method and an automatic self-calibration algorithm. Measurements from the radiometers were in agreement, with less than a 0.4-K difference during clear skies, when the instantaneous method was applied. Brightness temperatures from the radiometer and the radiosonde showed anmore » agreement of less than 0.55 K when the most recent absorption models were considered. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) computed from the radiometers were also compared to the PWV derived from a Global Positioning System station that operates at the ARM site. The instruments agree to within 0.1 cm in PWV retrieval.« less

Intercomparison of three microwave/infrared high resolution line-by-line radiative transfer codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schreier, F.; Garcia, S. Gimeno; Milz, M.; Kottayil, A.; Höpfner, M.; von Clarmann, T.; Stiller, G.

2013-05-01

An intercomparison of three line-by-line (lbl) codes developed independently for atmospheric sounding - ARTS, GARLIC, and KOPRA - has been performed for a thermal infrared nadir sounding application assuming a HIRS-like (High resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder) setup. Radiances for the HIRS infrared channels and a set of 42 atmospheric profiles from the "Garand dataset" have been computed. Results of this intercomparison and a discussion of reasons of the observed differences are presented.

Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, Pepijn; Clark, Peter U.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Schmittner, Andreas; Weber, Michael E.

2017-01-01

Proxy-based indicators of past climate change show that current global climate models systematically underestimate Holocene-epoch climate variability on centennial to multi-millennial timescales, with the mismatch increasing for longer periods. Proposed explanations for the discrepancy include ocean-atmosphere coupling that is too weak in models, insufficient energy cascades from smaller to larger spatial and temporal scales, or that global climate models do not consider slow climate feedbacks related to the carbon cycle or interactions between ice sheets and climate. Such interactions, however, are known to have strongly affected centennial- to orbital-scale climate variability during past glaciations, and are likely to be important in future climate change. Here we show that fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge caused by relatively small changes in subsurface ocean temperature can amplify multi-centennial climate variability regionally and globally, suggesting that a dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet may have driven climate fluctuations during the Holocene. We analysed high-temporal-resolution records of iceberg-rafted debris derived from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and performed both high-spatial-resolution ice-sheet modelling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and multi-millennial global climate model simulations. Ice-sheet responses to decadal-scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long-term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.

A comparison of two finite element models of tidal hydrodynamics using a North Sea data set

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walters, R.A.; Werner, F.E.

1989-01-01

Using the region of the English Channel and the southern bight of the North Sea, we systematically compare the results of two independent finite element models of tidal hydrodynamics. The model intercomparison provides a means for increasing our understanding of the relevant physical processes in the region in question as well as a means for the evaluation of certain algorithmic procedures of the two models. ?? 1989.

Capabilities and performance of the new generation ice-sheet model Elmer/Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Gillet-chaulet, F.; Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Mallinen, M.; Martin, C.; Raback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Schäfer, M.; Thies, J.

2012-12-01

Since the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report, and its conclusion about the inability of ice-sheet flow models to forecast the current increase of polar ice sheet discharge and associated contribution to sea-level rise, a huge development effort has been undertaken by the glaciological community. All around the world, models have been improved and, interestingly, a significant number of new ice-sheet models have emerged. Among them, the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice (based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer) was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections of the future of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve dedicated local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger scale problems, earning the status of an ice-sheet model. In this presentation, we summarise the almost 10 years of development performed by different groups. We present the components already included in Elmer/Ice, its numerical performance, selected applications, as well as developments planed for the future.

Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new generation ice-sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Greve, R.; Malinen, M.; Martín, C.; Råback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Sacchettini, M.; Schäfer, M.; Seddik, H.; Thies, J.

2013-03-01

The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice-sheet flow models are unable to forecast the current increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea-level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice-flow models, and as a result, a significant number of new ice-sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger scale problems, earning the status of an ice-sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. We present the components already included in Elmer/Ice, its numerical performance, selected applications, as well as developments planned for the future.

A calving law for ice sheet models; Investigating the role of surface melt on dynamics of Greenland outlet glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nick, F. M.; van der Veen, C. J.; Vieli, A.

2008-12-01

alving of icebergs accounts for perhaps as much as half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We have formulated a calving model that can be readily incorporated into time-evolving numerical ice-flow models. Our model is based on downward penetration of water-filled surface crevasses and upward propagation of basal crevasses. A calving event occurs when the depth of the surface crevasse (which increases as melting progresses through the summer) reaches the height of the basal crevasse. Our numerical ice sheet model is able to reproduce observed seasonal changes of Greenland outlet glaciers, such as fluctuations in flow speed and terminus positions. We have applied the model to Helheim Glacier on the east coast, and Petermann Glacier in the northwest. Our model suggests that rapid retreat of the claving front is highly affected by the amplified calving rate due to increasing water level in surface crevasses during warmer summers. Our results show little response to seasonally enhanced basal lubrication from surface melt. This modeling study provides insights into the role of surface and basal hydrology to ice sheet dynamics and on how to incorporate calving in ice sheet models and therefore advances our ability to predict future ice sheet change.

An intercomparison of nitric oxide measurement techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoell, J. M., Jr.; Gregory, G. L.; Mcdougal, D. S.; Carroll, M. A.; Mcfarland, M.; Ridley, B. A.; Davis, D. D.; Bradshaw, J.; Rodgers, M. O.; Torres, A. L.

1985-01-01

Results from an intercomparison of techniques to measure tropospheric levels of nitric oxide (NO) are discussed. The intercomparison was part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Global Tropospheric Experiment and was conducted at Wallops Island, VA, in July 1983. Instruments intercompared included a laser-induced fluorescence system and two chemiluminescence instruments. The intercomparisons were performed with ambient air at NO mixing ratios ranging from 10 to 60 pptv and NO-enriched ambient air at mixing ratios from 20 to 170 pptv. All instruments sampled from a common manifold. The techniques exhibited a high degree of correlation among themselves and with changes in the NO mixing ratio. Agreement among the three techniques was placed at approximately + or - 30 percent. Within this level of agreement, no artifacts or species interferences were identified.

Three models intercomparison for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over Calabria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Federico, S.; Avolio, E.; Bellecci, C.; Colacino, M.; Lavagnini, A.; Accadia, C.; Mariani, S.; Casaioli, M.

2004-11-01

In the framework of the National Project “Sviluppo di distretti industriali per le Osservazioni della Terra” (Development of Industrial Districts for Earth Observations) funded by MIUR (Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca Scientifica --Italian Ministry of the University and Scientific Research) two operational mesoscale models were set-up for Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. Models are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) and MM5 (Mesoscale Modeling 5) that are run every day at Crati scrl to produce weather forecast over Calabria (http://www.crati.it). This paper reports model intercomparison for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast evaluated for a 20 month period from 1th October 2000 to 31th May 2002. In addition to RAMS and MM5 outputs, QBOLAM rainfall fields are available for the period selected and included in the comparison. This model runs operationally at “Agenzia per la Protezione dell'Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici”. Forecasts are verified comparing models outputs with raingauge data recorded by the regional meteorological network, which has 75 raingauges. Large-scale forcing is the same for all models considered and differences are due to physical/numerical parameterizations and horizontal resolutions. QPFs show differences between models. Largest differences are for BIA compared to the other considered scores. Performances decrease with increasing forecast time for RAMS and MM5, whilst QBOLAM scores better for second day forecast.

Quantifying the importance of model-to-model variability in integrated assessments of 21st century climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.; Calvin, K. V.

2016-12-01

The C4MIP and CMIP5 model intercomparison projects (MIPs) highlighted uncertainties in climate projections, driven to a large extent by interactions between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks. In addition, the importance of feedbacks between human (energy and economic) systems and natural (carbon and climate) systems is poorly understood, and not considered in the previous MIP protocols. The experiments conducted under the previous Integrated Earth System Model (iESM) project, which coupled a earth system model with an integrated assessment model (GCAM), found that the inclusion of climate feedbacks on the terrestrial system in an RCP4.5 scenario increased ecosystem productivity, resulting in declines in cropland extent and increases in bioenergy production and forest cover. As a follow-up to these studies and to further understand climate-carbon cycle interactions and feedbacks, we examined the robustness of these results by running a suite of GCAM-only experiments using changes in ecosystem productivity derived from both the CMIP5 archive and the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. In our results, the effects of climate on yield in an RCP8.5 scenario tended to be more positive than those of AgMIP, but more negative than those of the other CMIP models. We discuss these results and the implications of model-to-model variability for integrated coupling studies of the future earth system.

Groundwater flow and heat transport for systems undergoing freeze-thaw: Intercomparison of numerical simulators for 2D test cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grenier, Christophe; Anbergen, Hauke; Bense, Victor; Chanzy, Quentin; Coon, Ethan; Collier, Nathaniel; Costard, François; Ferry, Michel; Frampton, Andrew; Frederick, Jennifer; Gonçalvès, Julio; Holmén, Johann; Jost, Anne; Kokh, Samuel; Kurylyk, Barret; McKenzie, Jeffrey; Molson, John; Mouche, Emmanuel; Orgogozo, Laurent; Pannetier, Romain; Rivière, Agnès; Roux, Nicolas; Rühaak, Wolfram; Scheidegger, Johanna; Selroos, Jan-Olof; Therrien, René; Vidstrand, Patrik; Voss, Clifford

2018-04-01

In high-elevation, boreal and arctic regions, hydrological processes and associated water bodies can be strongly influenced by the distribution of permafrost. Recent field and modeling studies indicate that a fully-coupled multidimensional thermo-hydraulic approach is required to accurately model the evolution of these permafrost-impacted landscapes and groundwater systems. However, the relatively new and complex numerical codes being developed for coupled non-linear freeze-thaw systems require verification. This issue is addressed by means of an intercomparison of thirteen numerical codes for two-dimensional test cases with several performance metrics (PMs). These codes comprise a wide range of numerical approaches, spatial and temporal discretization strategies, and computational efficiencies. Results suggest that the codes provide robust results for the test cases considered and that minor discrepancies are explained by computational precision. However, larger discrepancies are observed for some PMs resulting from differences in the governing equations, discretization issues, or in the freezing curve used by some codes.

A Transient Initialization Routine of the Community Ice Sheet Model for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Laan, Larissa; van den Broeke, Michiel; Noël, Brice; van de Wal, Roderik

2017-04-01

The Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is to be applied in future simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet under a range of climate change scenarios, determining the sensitivity of the ice sheet to individual climatic forcings. In order to achieve reliable results regarding ice sheet stability and assess the probability of future occurrence of tipping points, a realistic initial ice sheet geometry is essential. The current work describes and evaluates the development of a transient initialization routine, using NGRIP 18O isotope data to create a temperature anomaly field. Based on the latter, surface mass balance components runoff and precipitation are perturbed for the past 125k years. The precipitation and runoff fields originate from a downscaled 1 km resolution version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 for the period 1961-1990. The result of the initialization routine is a present-day ice sheet with a transient memory of the last glacial-interglacial cycle, which will serve as the future runs' initial condition.

46 CFR 160.052-1 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., Model AP. Sheet 2—Cutting Pattern and General Arrangement, Model CPM. Sheet 3—Cutting Pattern and General Arrangement, Model CPS. Sheet 4—Insert Patterns. (c) Copies on file. The manufacturer shall keep a... Specifications and Standards may be purchased from the Business Service Center, General Services Administration...

Antarctic glacial history from numerical models and continental margin sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barker, P.F.; Barrett, P.J.; Cooper, A. K.; Huybrechts, P.

1999-01-01

The climate record of glacially transported sediments in prograded wedges around the Antarctic outer continental shelf, and their derivatives in continental rise drifts, may be combined to produce an Antarctic ice sheet history, using numerical models of ice sheet response to temperature and sea-level change. Examination of published models suggests several preliminary conclusions about ice sheet history. The ice sheet's present high sensitivity to sea-level change at short (orbital) periods was developed gradually as its size increased, replacing a declining sensitivity to temperature. Models suggest that the ice sheet grew abruptly to 40% (or possibly more) of its present size at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, mainly as a result of its own temperature sensitivity. A large but more gradual middle Miocene change was externally driven, probably by development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and Polar Front, provided that a few million years' delay can be explained. The Oligocene ice sheet varied considerably in size and areal extent, but the late Miocene ice sheet was more stable, though significantly warmer than today's. This difference probably relates to the confining effect of the Antarctic continental margin. Present-day numerical models of ice sheet development are sufficient to guide current sampling plans, but sea-ice formation, polar wander, basal topography and ice streaming can be identified as factors meriting additional modelling effort in the future.

Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM) Infrared (Clear-Sky) Line-by Line Radiative Fluxes (DB1002)

DOE Data Explorer

Arking, A.; Ridgeway, B.; Clough, T.; Iacono, M.; Fomin, B.; Trotsenko, A.; Freidenreich, S.; Schwarzkopf, D.

1994-01-01

The intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM) study was launched under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization and with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy to document differences in results obtained with various radiation codes and radiation parameterizations in general circulation models (GCMs). ICRCCM produced benchmark, longwave, line-by-line (LBL) fluxes that may be compared against each other and against models of lower spectral resolution. During ICRCCM, infrared fluxes and cooling rates for several standard model atmospheres with varying concentrations of water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone were calculated with LBL methods at resolutions of 0.01 cm-1 or higher. For comparison with other models, values were summed for the IR spectrum and given at intervals of 5 or 10 cm-1. This archive contains fluxes for ICRCCM-prescribed clear-sky cases. Radiative flux and cooling-rate profiles are given for specified atmospheric profiles for temperature, water vapor, and ozone-mixing ratios. The archive contains 328 files, including spectral summaries, formatted data files, and a variety of programs (i.e., C-shell scripts, FORTRAN codes, and IDL programs) to read, reformat, and display data. Collectively, these files require approximately 59 MB of disk space.

Decadal shifts of East Asian summer monsoon in a climate model free of explicit GHGs and aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Renping; Zhu, Jiang; Zheng, Fei

2016-12-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) experienced decadal transitions over the past few decades, and the associated "wetter-South-drier-North" shifts in rainfall patterns in China significantly affected the social and economic development in China. Two viewpoints stand out to explain these decadal shifts, regarding the shifts either a result of internal variability of climate system or that of external forcings (e.g. greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols). However, most climate models, for example, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-type simulations, fail to simulate the variation patterns, leaving the mechanisms responsible for these shifts still open to dispute. In this study, we conducted a successful simulation of these decadal transitions in a coupled model where we applied ocean data assimilation in the model free of explicit aerosols and GHGs forcing. The associated decadal shifts of the three-dimensional spatial structure in the 1990s, including the eastward retreat, the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the south-cool-north-warm pattern of the upper-level tropospheric temperature, were all well captured. Our simulation supports the argument that the variations of the oceanic fields are the dominant factor responsible for the EASM decadal transitions.

Decadal shifts of East Asian summer monsoon in a climate model free of explicit GHGs and aerosols

PubMed Central

Lin, Renping; Zhu, Jiang; Zheng, Fei

2016-01-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) experienced decadal transitions over the past few decades, and the associated "wetter-South-drier-North" shifts in rainfall patterns in China significantly affected the social and economic development in China. Two viewpoints stand out to explain these decadal shifts, regarding the shifts either a result of internal variability of climate system or that of external forcings (e.g. greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols). However, most climate models, for example, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-type simulations, fail to simulate the variation patterns, leaving the mechanisms responsible for these shifts still open to dispute. In this study, we conducted a successful simulation of these decadal transitions in a coupled model where we applied ocean data assimilation in the model free of explicit aerosols and GHGs forcing. The associated decadal shifts of the three-dimensional spatial structure in the 1990s, including the eastward retreat, the northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the south-cool-north-warm pattern of the upper-level tropospheric temperature, were all well captured. Our simulation supports the argument that the variations of the oceanic fields are the dominant factor responsible for the EASM decadal transitions. PMID:27934933

How well do simulated last glacial maximum tropical temperatures constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopcroft, Peter O.; Valdes, Paul J.

2015-07-01

Previous work demonstrated a significant correlation between tropical surface air temperature and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) phase 2 model simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM). This implies that reconstructed LGM cooling in this region could provide information about the climate system ECS value. We analyze results from new simulations of the LGM performed as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and PMIP phase 3. These results show no consistent relationship between the LGM tropical cooling and ECS. A radiative forcing and feedback analysis shows that a number of factors are responsible for this decoupling, some of which are related to vegetation and aerosol feedbacks. While several of the processes identified are LGM specific and do not impact on elevated CO2 simulations, this analysis demonstrates one area where the newer CMIP5 models behave in a qualitatively different manner compared with the older ensemble. The results imply that so-called Earth System components such as vegetation and aerosols can have a significant impact on the climate response in LGM simulations, and this should be taken into account in future analyses.

Intercomparison of land-surface parameterizations launched

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson-Sellers, A.; Dickinson, R. E.

One of the crucial tasks for climatic and hydrological scientists over the next several years will be validating land surface process parameterizations used in climate models. There is not, necessarily, a unique set of parameters to be used. Different scientists will want to attempt to capture processes through various methods “for example, Avissar and Verstraete, 1990”. Validation of some aspects of the available (and proposed) schemes' performance is clearly required. It would also be valuable to compare the behavior of the existing schemes [for example, Dickinson et al., 1991; Henderson-Sellers, 1992a].The WMO-CAS Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) and the Science Panel of the GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP) [for example, Chahine, 1992] have agreed to launch the joint WGNE/GCIP Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS). The principal goal of this project is to achieve greater understanding of the capabilities and potential applications of existing and new land-surface schemes in atmospheric models. It is not anticipated that a single “best” scheme will emerge. Rather, the aim is to explore alternative models in ways compatible with their authors' or exploiters' goals and to increase understanding of the characteristics of these models in the scientific community.

WCRP Task Team for the Intercomparison of Reanalyses (TIRA): Motivation and Progress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael

2017-01-01

Reanalyses have proven to be an important resource for weather and climate related research, as well as societal applications at large. Several centers have emerged to produce new atmospheric reanalyses in various forms every few years. In addition, land and ocean communities are producing disciplinary uncoupled reanalyses. Current research and development in reanalysis is directed at (1) extending the length of reanalyzed period and (2) use of coupled Earth system models for climate reanalysis. While WCRPs involvement in the reanalyses communities through its Data Advisory Council (WDAC) has been substantial, for example in organizing international conferences on reanalyses, a central team of reanalyses expertise is not in place in the WCRP structure. The differences among reanalyses and their inherent uncertainties are some of the most important questions for both users and developers of reanalyses. Therefore, a collaborative effort to systematically assess and intercompare reanalyses would be a logical progression that fills the needs of the community and contributes to the WCRP mission. The primary charge to the TIRA is to develop a reanalysis intercomparison project plan that will attain the following objectives.1)To foster understanding and estimation of uncertainties in reanalysis data by intercomparison and other means 2)To communicate new developments and best practices among the reanalyses producing centers 3)To enhance the understanding of data and assimilation issues and their impact on uncertainties, leading to improved reanalyses for climate assessment 4)To communicate the strengths and weaknesses of reanalyses, their fitness for purpose, and best practices in the use of reanalysis datasets by the scientific community. This presentation outlines the need for a task team on reanalyses, their intercomparison, the objectives of the team and progress thus far.

An Intercomparison of 2-D Models Within a Common Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Scott, Courtney J.; Jackman, Charles H.; Fleming, Eric L.; Considine, David B.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Connell, Peter S.; Rotman, Douglas A.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A model intercomparison among the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) 2-D model, the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D model, and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 2-D model allows us to separate differences due to model transport from those due to the model's chemical formulation. This is accomplished by constructing two hybrid models incorporating the transport parameters of the GSFC and LLNL models within the AER model framework. By comparing the results from the native models (AER and e.g. GSFC) with those from the hybrid model (e.g. AER chemistry with GSFC transport), differences due to chemistry and transport can be identified. For the analysis, we examined an inert tracer whose emission pattern is based on emission from a High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) fleet; distributions of trace species in the 2015 atmosphere; and the response of stratospheric ozone to an HSCT fleet. Differences in NO(y) in the upper stratosphere are found between models with identical transport, implying different model representations of atmospheric chemical processes. The response of O3 concentration to HSCT aircraft emissions differs in the models from both transport-dominated differences in the HSCT-induced perturbations of H2O and NO(y) as well as from differences in the model represent at ions of O3 chemical processes. The model formulations of cold polar processes are found to be the most significant factor in creating large differences in the calculated ozone perturbations

On the Reconstruction of Palaeo-Ice Sheets: Recent Advances and Future Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stokes, Chris R.; Tarasov, Lev; Blomdin, Robin; Cronin, Thomas M.; Fisher, Timothy G.; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Hattestrand, Clas; Heyman, Jacob; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.; Hughes, Anna L. C.;

On the reconstruction of palaeo-ice sheets: Recent advances and future challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stokes, Chris R.; Tarasov, Lev; Blomdin, Robin; Cronin, Thomas M.; Fisher, Timothy G.; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Hattestrand, Clas; Heyman, Jakob; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.; Hughes, Anna L. C.; Jakobsson, Martin; Kirchner, Nina; Livingstone, Stephen J.; Margold, Martin; Murton, Julian B.; Noormets, Riko; Peltier, W. Richard; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Piper, David J. W.; Preusser, Frank; Renssen, Hans; Roberts, David H.; Roche, Didier M.; Saint-Ange, Francky; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Teller, James T.

2015-01-01

Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus, the capability is developing to use all relevant palaeo-records to more strongly constrain deglacial (and to a lesser extent pre-LGM) ice sheet evolution. In working towards that goal, the accurate representation of uncertainties is required for both constraint data and model outputs. Close cooperation between modelling and data-gathering communities is essential to ensure this capability is realised and continues to progress.

A coronal magnetic field model with horizontal volume and sheet currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, Xuepu; Hoeksema, J. Todd

1994-01-01

When globally mapping the observed photospheric magnetic field into the corona, the interaction of the solar wind and magnetic field has been treated either by imposing source surface boundary conditions that tacitly require volume currents outside the source surface or by limiting the interaction to thin current sheets between oppositely directed field regions. Yet observations and numerical Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) calculations suggest the presence of non-force-free volume currents throughout the corona as well as thin current sheets in the neighborhoods of the interfaces between closed and open field lines or between oppositely directed open field lines surrounding coronal helmet-streamer structures. This work presents a model including both horizontal volume currents and streamer sheet currents. The present model builds on the magnetostatic equilibria developed by Bogdan and Low and the current-sheet modeling technique developed by Schatten. The calculation uses synoptic charts of the line-of-sight component of the photospheric magnetic field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory. Comparison of an MHD model with the calculated model results for the case of a dipole field and comparison of eclipse observations with calculations for CR 1647 (near solar minimum) show that this horizontal current-current-sheet model reproduces polar plumes and axes of corona streamers better than the source-surface model and reproduces polar plumes and axes of corona streamers better than the source-surface model and reproduces coro nal helmet structures better than the current-sheet model.

Intercomparison of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in stratiform orographic mixed-phase clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhlbauer, A.; Hashino, T.; Xue, L.; Teller, A.; Lohmann, U.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Geresdi, I.; Pan, Z.

2010-04-01

Anthropogenic aerosols serve as a source of both cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) and affect microphysical properties of clouds. Increasing aerosol number concentrations is hypothesized to retard the cloud droplet collision/coalescence and the riming in mixed-phase clouds, thereby decreasing orographic precipitation. This study presents results from a model intercomparison of 2-D simulations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in stratiform orographic mixed-phase clouds. The sensitivity of orographic precipitation to changes in the aerosol number concentrations is analyzed and compared for various dynamical and thermodynamical situations. Furthermore, the sensitivities of microphysical processes such as collision/coalescence, aggregation and riming to changes in the aerosol number concentrations are evaluated and compared. The participating models are the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling's (COSMO) model with bulk-microphysics, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with bin-microphysics and the University of Wisconsin modeling system (UWNMS) with a spectral ice-habit prediction microphysics scheme. All models are operated on a cloud-resolving scale with 2 km horizontal grid spacing. The results of the model intercomparison suggest that the sensitivity of orographic precipitation to aerosol modifications varies greatly from case to case and from model to model. Neither a precipitation decrease nor a precipitation increase is found robustly in all simulations. Qualitative robust results can only be found for a subset of the simulations but even then quantitative agreement is scarce. Estimates of the second indirect aerosol effect on orographic precipitation are found to range from -19% to 0% depending on the simulated case and the model. Similarly, riming is shown to decrease in some cases and models whereas it increases in others which implies that a decrease in riming with increasing aerosol load is not a robust result. Furthermore, it is found that neither a decrease in cloud droplet coalescence nor a decrease in riming necessarily implies a decrease in precipitation due to compensation effects by other microphysical pathways. The simulations suggest that mixed-phase conditions play an important role in reducing the overall susceptibility of clouds and precipitation with respect to changes in the aerosols number concentrations. As a consequence the indirect aerosol effect on precipitation is suggested to be less pronounced or even inverted in regions with high terrain (e.g., the Alps or Rocky Mountains) or in regions where mixed-phase microphysics climatologically plays an important role for orographic precipitation.

Modeling Primary Breakup: A Three-Dimensional Eulerian Level Set/Vortex Sheet Method for Two-Phase Interface Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herrmann, M.

2003-01-01

This paper is divided into four parts. First, the level set/vortex sheet method for three-dimensional two-phase interface dynamics is presented. Second, the LSS model for the primary breakup of turbulent liquid jets and sheets is outlined and all terms requiring subgrid modeling are identified. Then, preliminary three-dimensional results of the level set/vortex sheet method are presented and discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn and an outlook to future work is given.

Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions in Atmospheric Forecast Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-14

results also suggest that neglect of spectral skewness and drizzle drops as typically in calculating k [e.g., Pontikis and Hicks, 1992; Martin, et...Intercomparison among different numerical codes, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 261-278. 10 Pontikis , C., and E. Hicks (1992), Contribution to the

Intercomparison of retrospective radon detectors.

PubMed Central

Field, R W; Steck, D J; Parkhurst, M A; Mahaffey, J A; Alavanja, M C

1999-01-01

We performed both a laboratory and a field intercomparison of two novel glass-based retrospective radon detectors previously used in major radon case-control studies performed in Missouri and Iowa. The new detectors estimate retrospective residential radon exposure from the accumulation of a long-lived radon decay product, (210)Pb, in glass. The detectors use track registration material in direct contact with glass surfaces to measure the alpha-emission of a (210)Pb-decay product, (210)Po. The detector's track density generation rate (tracks per square centimeter per hour) is proportional to the surface alpha-activity. In the absence of other strong sources of alpha-emission in the glass, the implanted surface alpha-activity should be proportional to the accumulated (210)Po, and hence to the cumulative radon gas exposure. The goals of the intercomparison were to a) perform collocated measurements using two different glass-based retrospective radon detectors in a controlled laboratory environment to compare their relative response to implanted polonium in the absence of environmental variation, b) perform collocated measurements using two different retrospective radon progeny detectors in a variety of residential settings to compare their detection of glass-implanted polonium activities, and c) examine the correlation between track density rates and contemporary radon gas concentrations. The laboratory results suggested that the materials and methods used by the studies produced similar track densities in detectors exposed to the same implanted (210)Po activity. The field phase of the intercomparison found excellent agreement between the track density rates for the two types of retrospective detectors. The correlation between the track density rates and direct contemporary radon concentration measurements was relatively high, considering that no adjustments were performed to account for either the residential depositional environment or glass surface type. Preliminary comparisons of the models used to translate track rate densities to average long-term radon concentrations differ between the two studies. Further calibration of the retrospective detectors' models for interpretation of track rate density may allow the pooling of studies that use glass-based retrospective radon detectors to determine historic residential radon exposures. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 PMID:10545336

Intercomparison of retrospective radon detectors.

PubMed

Field, R W; Steck, D J; Parkhurst, M A; Mahaffey, J A; Alavanja, M C

1999-11-01

We performed both a laboratory and a field intercomparison of two novel glass-based retrospective radon detectors previously used in major radon case-control studies performed in Missouri and Iowa. The new detectors estimate retrospective residential radon exposure from the accumulation of a long-lived radon decay product, (210)Pb, in glass. The detectors use track registration material in direct contact with glass surfaces to measure the alpha-emission of a (210)Pb-decay product, (210)Po. The detector's track density generation rate (tracks per square centimeter per hour) is proportional to the surface alpha-activity. In the absence of other strong sources of alpha-emission in the glass, the implanted surface alpha-activity should be proportional to the accumulated (210)Po, and hence to the cumulative radon gas exposure. The goals of the intercomparison were to a) perform collocated measurements using two different glass-based retrospective radon detectors in a controlled laboratory environment to compare their relative response to implanted polonium in the absence of environmental variation, b) perform collocated measurements using two different retrospective radon progeny detectors in a variety of residential settings to compare their detection of glass-implanted polonium activities, and c) examine the correlation between track density rates and contemporary radon gas concentrations. The laboratory results suggested that the materials and methods used by the studies produced similar track densities in detectors exposed to the same implanted (210)Po activity. The field phase of the intercomparison found excellent agreement between the track density rates for the two types of retrospective detectors. The correlation between the track density rates and direct contemporary radon concentration measurements was relatively high, considering that no adjustments were performed to account for either the residential depositional environment or glass surface type. Preliminary comparisons of the models used to translate track rate densities to average long-term radon concentrations differ between the two studies. Further calibration of the retrospective detectors' models for interpretation of track rate density may allow the pooling of studies that use glass-based retrospective radon detectors to determine historic residential radon exposures.

GEO-LEO reflectance band inter-comparison with BRDF and atmospheric scattering corrections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Tiejun; Xiong, Xiaoxiong Jack; Keller, Graziela; Wu, Xiangqian

2017-09-01

The inter-comparison of the reflective solar bands between the instruments onboard a geostationary orbit satellite and onboard a low Earth orbit satellite is very helpful to assess their calibration consistency. GOES-R was launched on November 19, 2016 and Himawari 8 was launched October 7, 2014. Unlike the previous GOES instruments, the Advanced Baseline Imager on GOES-16 (GOES-R became GOES-16 after November 29 when it reached orbit) and the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on Himawari 8 have onboard calibrators for the reflective solar bands. The assessment of calibration is important for their product quality enhancement. MODIS and VIIRS, with their stringent calibration requirements and excellent on-orbit calibration performance, provide good references. The simultaneous nadir overpass (SNO) and ray-matching are widely used inter-comparison methods for reflective solar bands. In this work, the inter-comparisons are performed over a pseudo-invariant target. The use of stable and uniform calibration sites provides comparison with appropriate reflectance level, accurate adjustment for band spectral coverage difference, reduction of impact from pixel mismatching, and consistency of BRDF and atmospheric correction. The site in this work is a desert site in Australia (latitude -29.0 South; longitude 139.8 East). Due to the difference in solar and view angles, two corrections are applied to have comparable measurements. The first is the atmospheric scattering correction. The satellite sensor measurements are top of atmosphere reflectance. The scattering, especially Rayleigh scattering, should be removed allowing the ground reflectance to be derived. Secondly, the angle differences magnify the BRDF effect. The ground reflectance should be corrected to have comparable measurements. The atmospheric correction is performed using a vector version of the Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum modeling and BRDF correction is performed using a semi-empirical model. AHI band 1 (0.47μm) shows good matching with VIIRS band M3 with difference of 0.15%. AHI band 5 (1.69μm) shows largest difference in comparison with VIIRS M10.

AIRS Obs4MIPs V2 data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, B.

2017-12-01

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become a central element of national and international assessments of climate change. The CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6) model experiments will be the foundation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), scheduled for publication around 2021. To increase the fidelity of the IPCC AR6, the CMIP6 model experiments need rigorous evaluation. The "Observations for Model Intercomparison Projects" (Obs4MIPs) collects, organizes and publishes various well-established satellite data sets for CMIP model evaluation. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the NASA's temperature and humidity sounding system on the Aqua satellite, has provided over a decade-long high-quality tropospheric temperature and moisture sounding data. Under the current support of the NASA Data for Operation and Assessment (NDOA) program, we are generating and publishing the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2 data set including the monthly mean tropospheric air temperature, specific humidity, and relative humidity profiles from September 2002 to September 2016. This will provide the latest AIRS data in Obs4MIPs and assist the climate modeling community to better use the AIRS data for CMIP (including CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6) model evaluation. In this presentation, we will discuss the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2 data set and their possible use for CMIP6 climate model evaluation.

Constraining Centennial-Scale Ecosystem-Climate Interactions with a Pre-colonial Forest Reconstruction across the Upper Midwest and Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthes, J. H.; Dietze, M.; Fox, A. M.; Goring, S. J.; McLachlan, J. S.; Moore, D. J.; Poulter, B.; Quaife, T. L.; Schaefer, K. M.; Steinkamp, J.; Williams, J. W.

2014-12-01

Interactions between ecological systems and the atmosphere are the result of dynamic processes with system memories that persist from seconds to centuries. Adequately capturing long-term biosphere-atmosphere exchange within earth system models (ESMs) requires an accurate representation of changes in plant functional types (PFTs) through time and space, particularly at timescales associated with ecological succession. However, most model parameterization and development has occurred using datasets than span less than a decade. We tested the ability of ESMs to capture the ecological dynamics observed in paleoecological and historical data spanning the last millennium. Focusing on an area from the Upper Midwest to New England, we examined differences in the magnitude and spatial pattern of PFT distributions and ecotones between historic datasets and the CMIP5 inter-comparison project's large-scale ESMs. We then conducted a 1000-year model inter-comparison using six state-of-the-art biosphere models at sites that bridged regional temperature and precipitation gradients. The distribution of ecosystem characteristics in modeled climate space reveals widely disparate relationships between modeled climate and vegetation that led to large differences in long-term biosphere-atmosphere fluxes for this region. Model simulations revealed that both the interaction between climate and vegetation and the representation of ecosystem dynamics within models were important controls on biosphere-atmosphere exchange.

A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment designed for climate and chemistry models

DOE PAGES

Tilmes, S.; Mills, Mike; Niemeier, Ulrike; ...

2015-01-15

A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment "G4 specified stratospheric aerosols" (short name: G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments between 2020 and 2100. This stratospheric aerosol distribution, with a total burden of about 2 Tg S has been derived using the ECHAM5-HAM microphysical model, based on a continuous annualmore » tropical emission of 8 Tg SO₂ yr⁻¹. A ramp-up of geoengineering in 2020 and a ramp-down in 2070 over a period of 2 years are included in the distribution, while a background aerosol burden should be used for the last 3 decades of the experiment. The performance of this experiment using climate and chemistry models in a multi-model comparison framework will allow us to better understand the impact of geoengineering and its abrupt termination after 50 years in a changing environment. The zonal and monthly mean stratospheric aerosol input data set is available at https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/gcm/geomip-g4-specified-stratospheric-aerosol-data-set.« less

Evaluation and intercomparison of five major dry deposition ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dry deposition of various pollutants needs to be quantified in air quality monitoring networks as well as in chemical transport models. The inferential method is the most commonly used approach in which the dry deposition velocity (Vd) is empirically parameterized as a function of meteorological and biological conditions and pollutant species’ chemical properties. Earlier model intercomparison studies suggested that existing dry deposition algorithms produce quite different Vd values, e.g., up to a factor of 2 for monthly to annual average values for ozone, and sulfur and nitrogen species (Flechard et al., 2011; Schwede et al., 2011; Wu et al., 2011). To further evaluate model discrepancies using available flux data, this study compared the five dry deposition algorithms commonly used in North America and evaluated the models using five-year Vd(O3) and Vd(SO2) data generated from concentration gradient measurements above a temperate mixed forest in Canada. The five algorithms include: (1) the one used in the Canadian Air and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CAPMoN) and several Canadian air quality models based on Zhang et al. (2003), (2) the one used in the US Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) based on Meyers et al. (1998), (3) the one used in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model described in Pleim and Ran (2011), (4) the Noah land surface model coupled with a photosynthesis-based Gas Exchange Model (Noah-GEM) described in Wu et a

Intercomparison Project on Parameterizations of Large-Scale Dynamics for Simulations of Tropical Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobel, A. H.; Wang, S.; Bellon, G.; Sessions, S. L.; Woolnough, S.

2013-12-01

Parameterizations of large-scale dynamics have been developed in the past decade for studying the interaction between tropical convection and large-scale dynamics, based on our physical understanding of the tropical atmosphere. A principal advantage of these methods is that they offer a pathway to attack the key question of what controls large-scale variations of tropical deep convection. These methods have been used with both single column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) to study the interaction of deep convection with several kinds of environmental forcings. While much has been learned from these efforts, different groups' efforts are somewhat hard to compare. Different models, different versions of the large-scale parameterization methods, and experimental designs that differ in other ways are used. It is not obvious which choices are consequential to the scientific conclusions drawn and which are not. The methods have matured to the point that there is value in an intercomparison project. In this context, the Global Atmospheric Systems Study - Weak Temperature Gradient (GASS-WTG) project was proposed at the Pan-GASS meeting in September 2012. The weak temperature gradient approximation is one method to parameterize large-scale dynamics, and is used in the project name for historical reasons and simplicity, but another method, the damped gravity wave (DGW) method, will also be used in the project. The goal of the GASS-WTG project is to develop community understanding of the parameterization methods currently in use. Their strengths, weaknesses, and functionality in models with different physics and numerics will be explored in detail, and their utility to improve our understanding of tropical weather and climate phenomena will be further evaluated. This presentation will introduce the intercomparison project, including background, goals, and overview of the proposed experimental design. Interested groups will be invited to join (it will not be too late), and preliminary results will be presented.

Integrate Data into Scientific Workflows for Terrestrial Biosphere Model Evaluation through Brokers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Cook, R. B.; Du, F.; Dasgupta, A.; Poco, J.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Schwalm, C. R.; Boldrini, E.; Santoro, M.; Pearlman, J.; Pearlman, F.; Nativi, S.; Khalsa, S.

2013-12-01

Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) have become integral tools for extrapolating local observations and process-level understanding of land-atmosphere carbon exchange to larger regions. Model-model and model-observation intercomparisons are critical to understand the uncertainties within model outputs, to improve model skill, and to improve our understanding of land-atmosphere carbon exchange. The DataONE Exploration, Visualization, and Analysis (EVA) working group is evaluating TBMs using scientific workflows in UV-CDAT/VisTrails. This workflow-based approach promotes collaboration and improved tracking of evaluation provenance. But challenges still remain. The multi-scale and multi-discipline nature of TBMs makes it necessary to include diverse and distributed data resources in model evaluation. These include, among others, remote sensing data from NASA, flux tower observations from various organizations including DOE, and inventory data from US Forest Service. A key challenge is to make heterogeneous data from different organizations and disciplines discoverable and readily integrated for use in scientific workflows. This presentation introduces the brokering approach taken by the DataONE EVA to fill the gap between TBMs' evaluation scientific workflows and cross-organization and cross-discipline data resources. The DataONE EVA started the development of an Integrated Model Intercomparison Framework (IMIF) that leverages standards-based discovery and access brokers to dynamically discover, access, and transform (e.g. subset and resampling) diverse data products from DataONE, Earth System Grid (ESG), and other data repositories into a format that can be readily used by scientific workflows in UV-CDAT/VisTrails. The discovery and access brokers serve as an independent middleware that bridge existing data repositories and TBMs evaluation scientific workflows but introduce little overhead to either component. In the initial work, an OpenSearch-based discovery broker is leveraged to provide a consistent mechanism for data discovery. Standards-based data services, including Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Coverage Service (WCS) and THREDDS are leveraged to provide on-demand data access and transformations through the data access broker. To ease the adoption of broker services, a package of broker client VisTrails modules have been developed to be easily plugged into scientific workflows. The initial IMIF has been successfully tested in selected model evaluation scenarios involved in the NASA-funded Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP).

A new PUB-working group on SLope InterComparison Experiments (SLICE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, K.; Retter, M.; Freer, J.; Troch, P.; McDonnell, J.

2006-05-01

The International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) decade on Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) has the scientific goal to shift hydrology from calibration reliant models to new and rich understanding- based models. To support this, six PUB science themes have been developed under the PUB Science Steering group. Theme 1 covers basin inter-comparison and classification. The SLope InterComparison Experiment (SLICE) is a newly-formed working group aligned with theme 1. Its 2- year target is to promote the improved understanding of regional hydrological characteristics via hillslope inter- comparison studies and top-down analysis of data from hillslope experiments from around the world. It will further deliver the major building blocks of a catchment classification system. A first workshop of SLICE took place 26-28 September 2005 at the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, USA. 40 participants from seven countries were in attendance. The program consisted of keynote presentations on the state-of-the-art of hillslope hydrology, outlining a hillslope classification system, and through small group discussion, a focus on the following questions: a.) How can we capture flow path heterogeneity at the hillslope scale with residence time distributions? b.) Can networks help characterize hillslope subsurface systems? c.) What patterns are useful to characterize in a hillslope comparison context? d.) How does bedrock permeability condition hillslope response? e.) Can we actually observe pressure waves in the field and/or how likely are they to exist at the hillslope continuum scale? The poster presents an overview of the workshop outcomes and directions of future work.

Outreach/education interface for Cryosphere models using the Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larour, E. Y.; Halkides, D. J.; Romero, V.; Cheng, D. L.; Perez, G.

2014-12-01

In the past decade, great strides have been made in the development of models capable of projecting the future evolution of glaciers and the polar ice sheets in a changing climate. These models are now capable of replicating some of the trends apparent in satellite observations. However, because this field is just now maturing, very few efforts have been dedicated to adapting these capabilities to education. Technologies that have been used in outreach efforts in Atmospheric and Oceanic sciences still have not been extended to Cryospheric Science. We present a cutting-edge, technologically driven virtual laboratory, geared towards outreach and k-12 education, dedicated to the polar ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland, and their role as major contributors to sea level rise in coming decades. VISL (Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory) relies on state-of-the art Web GL rendering of polar ice sheets, Android/iPhone and web portability using Javascript, as well as C++ simulations (back-end) based on the Ice Sheet System Model, the NASA model for simulating the evolution of polar ice sheets. Using VISL, educators and students can have an immersive experience into the world of polar ice sheets, while at the same exercising the capabilities of a state-of-the-art climate model, all of it embedded into an education experience that follows the new STEM standards for education.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.

Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) Preparation for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denvil, S.; Murphy, S.; Greenslade, M. A.; Lawrence, B.; Guilyardi, E.; Pascoe, C.; Treshanksy, A.; Elkington, M.; Hibling, E.; Hassell, D.

2015-12-01

During the course of 2015 the Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) project began its preparations for CMIP6 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6) by further extending the ES-DOC tooling ecosystem in support of Earth System Model (ESM) documentation creation, search, viewing & comparison. The ES-DOC online questionnaire, the ES-DOC desktop notebook, and the ES-DOC python toolkit will serve as multiple complementary pathways to generating CMIP6 documentation. It is envisaged that institutes will leverage these tools at different points of the CMIP6 lifecycle. Institutes will be particularly interested to know that the documentation burden will be either streamlined or completely automated.As all the tools are tightly integrated with the ES-DOC web-service, institutes can be confident that the latency between documentation creation & publishing will be reduced to a minimum. Published documents will be viewable with the online ES-DOC Viewer (accessible via citable URL's). Model inter-comparison scenarios will be supported using the ES-DOC online Comparator tool. The Comparator is being extended to:• Support comparison of both Model descriptions & Simulation runs;• Greatly streamline the effort involved in compiling official tables.The entire ES-DOC ecosystem is open source and built upon open standards such as the Common Information Model (CIM) (versions 1 and 2).

An Intercomparison of Lidar Ozone and Temperature Measurements From the SOLVE Mission With Predicted Model Values

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burris, John; McGee, Thomas J.; Hoegy, Walt; Lait, Leslie; Sumnicht, Grant; Twigg, Larry; Heaps, William

2000-01-01

Temperature profiles acquired by Goddard Space Flight Center's AROTEL lidar during the SOLVE mission onboard NASA's DC-8 are compared with predicted values from several atmospheric models (DAO, NCEP and UKMO). The variability in the differences between measured and calculated temperature fields was approximately 5 K. Retrieved temperatures within the polar vortex showed large regions that were significantly colder than predicted by the atmospheric models.

Computer-aided light sheet flow visualization using photogrammetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stacy, Kathryn; Severance, Kurt; Childers, Brooks A.

1994-01-01

A computer-aided flow visualization process has been developed to analyze video images acquired from rotating and translating light sheet visualization systems. The computer process integrates a mathematical model for image reconstruction, advanced computer graphics concepts, and digital image processing to provide a quantitative and a visual analysis capability. The image reconstruction model, based on photogrammetry, uses knowledge of the camera and light sheet locations and orientations to project two-dimensional light sheet video images into three-dimensional space. A sophisticated computer visualization package, commonly used to analyze computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results, was chosen to interactively display the reconstructed light sheet images with the numerical surface geometry for the model or aircraft under study. The photogrammetric reconstruction technique and the image processing and computer graphics techniques and equipment are described. Results of the computer-aided process applied to both a wind tunnel translating light sheet experiment and an in-flight rotating light sheet experiment are presented. The capability to compare reconstructed experimental light sheet images with CFD solutions in the same graphics environment is also demonstrated.

Computer-Aided Light Sheet Flow Visualization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stacy, Kathryn; Severance, Kurt; Childers, Brooks A.

1993-01-01

A computer-aided flow visualization process has been developed to analyze video images acquired from rotating and translating light sheet visualization systems. The computer process integrates a mathematical model for image reconstruction, advanced computer graphics concepts, and digital image processing to provide a quantitative and visual analysis capability. The image reconstruction model, based on photogrammetry, uses knowledge of the camera and light sheet locations and orientations to project two-dimensional light sheet video images into three-dimensional space. A sophisticated computer visualization package, commonly used to analyze computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data sets, was chosen to interactively display the reconstructed light sheet images, along with the numerical surface geometry for the model or aircraft under study. A description is provided of the photogrammetric reconstruction technique, and the image processing and computer graphics techniques and equipment. Results of the computer aided process applied to both a wind tunnel translating light sheet experiment and an in-flight rotating light sheet experiment are presented. The capability to compare reconstructed experimental light sheet images and CFD solutions in the same graphics environment is also demonstrated.

Computer-aided light sheet flow visualization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stacy, Kathryn; Severance, Kurt; Childers, Brooks A.

1993-01-01

A computer-aided flow visualization process has been developed to analyze video images acquired from rotating and translating light sheet visualization systems. The computer process integrates a mathematical model for image reconstruction, advanced computer graphics concepts, and digital image processing to provide a quantitative and visual analysis capability. The image reconstruction model, based on photogrammetry, uses knowledge of the camera and light sheet locations and orientations to project two-dimensional light sheet video images into three-dimensional space. A sophisticated computer visualization package, commonly used to analyze computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data sets, was chosen to interactively display the reconstructed light sheet images, along with the numerical surface geometry for the model or aircraft under study. A description is provided of the photogrammetric reconstruction technique, and the image processing and computer graphics techniques and equipment. Results of the computer aided process applied to both a wind tunnel translating light sheet experiment and an in-flight rotating light sheet experiment are presented. The capability to compare reconstructed experimental light sheet images and CFD solutions in the same graphics environment is also demonstrated.

46 CFR 160.047-1 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., Models AK-1, and AF-1. Sheet 2, Rev. 2—Cutting Pattern and General Arrangement, Models CKM-1 and CFM-1. Sheet 3, Rev. 2—Cutting Pattern and General Arrangement, Models CKS-1 and CFS-1. Sheet 4, Rev. 1—Pad... Business Service Center, General Services Administration, Washington, DC 20407; (3) The military...

Multi-dimensional modelling of gas turbine combustion using a flame sheet model in KIVA II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, W. K.; Lai, M.-C.; Chue, T.-H.

1991-01-01

A flame sheet model for heat release is incorporated into a multi-dimensional fluid mechanical simulation for gas turbine application. The model assumes that the chemical reaction takes place in thin sheets compared to the length scale of mixing, which is valid for the primary combustion zone in a gas turbine combustor. In this paper, the details of the model are described and computational results are discussed.

Modelled Growth and Decay of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet Through the Last Glacial Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, S. J.; Banwell, A.

2015-12-01

The Cordilleran Ice Sheet in western North America had an enigmatic evolution during the last glacial cycle, developing out of sync with the larger Laurentide and global glaciation. The geological record suggests that the ice sheet emerged late, ca. 45 ka, growing to be a fully-established ice sheet in isotope stages 3 and 2 and deglaciating late in the glacial cycle. This has been a challenge to model, and is a paleoclimatic curiosity, because the western Cordillera of North America is heavily glacierized today, and one would intuitively expect it to act as an inception centre for the Pleistocene ice sheets. The region receives heavy precipitation, and modest cooling should induce large-scale glacier expansion. Indeed, a Cordilleran Ice Sheet quickly nucleates in isotope substage 5d in most ice sheet modeling studies to date, and is a resilient feature throughout the glaciation. The fact that a full-scale Cordilleran Ice Sheet did not develop until relatively late argues for either: (a) ice sheet models that have been inadequate in resolving the process of alpine-style glaciation, i.e., the coalescence of alpine icefields, or (b) a climatic history in western North America that deviated strongly from the hemispheric-scale cooling which drove the growth of the Laurentide and Scandinavian Ice Sheets, as recorded in Greenland. We argue that reasonable reconstructions of Cordilleran Ice Sheet growth and decay implicate a combination of these two considerations. Sufficient model resolution is required to capture the valley-bottom melt that suppresses icefield coalescence, while early-glacial cooling must have been modest in the Pacific sector of North America. We argue for a persistent warm, dry climate relative to that in eastern North America and the Atlantic sector, likely associated with positive feedbacks between atmospheric circulation and the nascent Laurentide Ice Sheet (i.e., peristent circulation patterns similar to those of 2014-2015). This must have been disrupted as the Laurentide thickened and advanced southward, allowing the Cordilleran Ice Sheet to emerge from numerous isolated icefield complexes.

Intercomparison of shortwave radiative transfer schemes in global aerosol modeling: results from the AeroCom Radiative Transfer Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randles, C. A.; Kinne, S.; Myhre, G.; Schulz, M.; Stier, P.; Fischer, J.; Doppler, L.; Highwood, E.; Ryder, C.; Harris, B.; Huttunen, J.; Ma, Y.; Pinker, R. T.; Mayer, B.; Neubauer, D.; Hitzenberger, R.; Oreopoulos, L.; Lee, D.; Pitari, G.; Di Genova, G.; Quaas, J.; Rose, Fred G.; Kato, S.; Rumbold, S. T.; Vardavas, I.; Hatzianastassiou, N.; Matsoukas, C.; Yu, H.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, H.; Lu, P.

2012-12-01

In this study we examine the performance of 31 global model radiative transfer schemes in cloud-free conditions with prescribed gaseous absorbers and no aerosols (Rayleigh atmosphere), with prescribed scattering-only aerosols, and with more absorbing aerosols. Results are compared to benchmark results from high-resolution, multi-angular line-by-line radiation models. For purely scattering aerosols, model bias relative to the line-by-line models in the top-of-the atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing ranges from roughly -10 to 20%, with over- and underestimates of radiative cooling at higher and lower sun elevation, respectively. Inter-model diversity (relative standard deviation) increases from ~10 to 15% as sun elevation increases. Inter-model diversity in atmospheric and surface forcing decreases with increased aerosol absorption, indicating that the treatment of multiple-scattering is more variable than aerosol absorption in the models considered. Aerosol radiative forcing results from multi-stream models are generally in better agreement with the line-by-line results than the simpler two-stream schemes. Considering radiative fluxes, model performance is generally the same or slightly better than results from previous radiation scheme intercomparisons. However, the inter-model diversity in aerosol radiative forcing remains large, primarily as a result of the treatment of multiple-scattering. Results indicate that global models that estimate aerosol radiative forcing with two-stream radiation schemes may be subject to persistent biases introduced by these schemes, particularly for regional aerosol forcing.

Intercomparison of shortwave radiative transfer schemes in global aerosol modeling: results from the AeroCom Radiative Transfer Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randles, C. A.; Kinne, S.; Myhre, G.; Schulz, M.; Stier, P.; Fischer, J.; Doppler, L.; Highwood, E.; Ryder, C.; Harris, B.; Huttunen, J.; Ma, Y.; Pinker, R. T.; Mayer, B.; Neubauer, D.; Hitzenberger, R.; Oreopoulos, L.; Lee, D.; Pitari, G.; Di Genova, G.; Quaas, J.; Rose, F. G.; Kato, S.; Rumbold, S. T.; Vardavas, I.; Hatzianastassiou, N.; Matsoukas, C.; Yu, H.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, H.; Lu, P.

2013-03-01

In this study we examine the performance of 31 global model radiative transfer schemes in cloud-free conditions with prescribed gaseous absorbers and no aerosols (Rayleigh atmosphere), with prescribed scattering-only aerosols, and with more absorbing aerosols. Results are compared to benchmark results from high-resolution, multi-angular line-by-line radiation models. For purely scattering aerosols, model bias relative to the line-by-line models in the top-of-the atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing ranges from roughly -10 to 20%, with over- and underestimates of radiative cooling at lower and higher solar zenith angle, respectively. Inter-model diversity (relative standard deviation) increases from ~10 to 15% as solar zenith angle decreases. Inter-model diversity in atmospheric and surface forcing decreases with increased aerosol absorption, indicating that the treatment of multiple-scattering is more variable than aerosol absorption in the models considered. Aerosol radiative forcing results from multi-stream models are generally in better agreement with the line-by-line results than the simpler two-stream schemes. Considering radiative fluxes, model performance is generally the same or slightly better than results from previous radiation scheme intercomparisons. However, the inter-model diversity in aerosol radiative forcing remains large, primarily as a result of the treatment of multiple-scattering. Results indicate that global models that estimate aerosol radiative forcing with two-stream radiation schemes may be subject to persistent biases introduced by these schemes, particularly for regional aerosol forcing.

Intercomparison of Suspended Sediment Concentration Derived from Models, Measurements and Hyperspectral Imagery in a System of Shallow, Relatively Pristine Coastal Bays: A Preliminary Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

residence time (hours) Figure 4. Left side: residence time calculated for the VCR using particle tracking and a hydrodynamic model (FVCOM). Blue ...Coast Reserve (VCR’07) Multi-Sensor Campaign. Marine Geodesy 33, 53-75. Lawson, S.E., P.L. Wiberg, K.J. McGlathery, and D.C. Fugate , 2007. Wind

Maximum warming occurs about one decade after carbon dioxide emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

2014-12-01

There has been a long tradition of estimating the amount of climate change that would result from various carbon dioxide emission or concentration scenarios but there has been relatively little quantitative analysis of how long it takes to feel the consequences of an individual carbon dioxide emission. Using conjoined results of recent carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects, we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6 to 30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. To characterize the carbon cycle uncertainty associated with the global temperature response to a carbon dioxide emission today, we use fits to the time series of carbon dioxide concentrations from a CO2-impulse response function model intercomparison project's 15 ensemble members (1). To characterize both the uncertainty in climate sensitivity and in the thermal inertia of the climate system, we use fits to the time series of global temperature change from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5; 2) abrupt4xco2 experiment's 20 ensemble's members separating the effects of each uncertainty factors using one of two simple physical models for each CMIP5 climate model. This yields 6,000 possible combinations of these three factors using a standard convolution integral approach. Our results indicate that benefits of avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While the relevant time lags imposed by the climate system are substantially shorter than a human lifetime, they are substantially longer than the typical political election cycle, making the delay and its associated uncertainties both economically and politically significant. References: 1. Joos F et al. (2013) Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis. Atmos Chem Phys 13:2793-2825. 2. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2011) An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485-498.

Evaluation and intercomparison of five major dry deposition algorithms in North America

EPA Science Inventory

Dry deposition of various pollutants needs to be quantified in air quality monitoring networks as well as in chemical transport models. The inferential method is the most commonly used approach in which the dry deposition velocity (Vd) is empirically parameterized as a function o...

Intercomparison of 7 Planetary Boundary-Layer/Surface-Layer Physics Schemes over Complex Terrain for Battlefield Situational Awareness

DTIC Science & Technology

This study considers the performance of 7 of the Weather Research and Forecast model boundary-layer (BL) parameterization schemes in a complex...schemes performed best. The surface parameters, planetary BL structure, and vertical profiles are important for US Army Research Laboratory

Predicting maize phenology: Intercomparison of functions for developmental response to temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate prediction of phenological development in maize is fundamental to determining crop adaptation and yield potential. A number of thermal functions are used in crop models, but their relative precision in predicting maize development has not been quantified. The objectives of this study were t...

Reflecting on the challenges of building a rich interconnected metadata database to describe the experiments of phase six of the coupled climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6) for the Earth System Documentation Project (ES-DOC) and anticipating the opportunities that tooling and services based on rich metadata can provide.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascoe, C. L.

2017-12-01

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has coordinated climate model experiments involving multiple international modelling teams since 1995. This has led to a better understanding of past, present, and future climate. The 2017 sixth phase of the CMIP process (CMIP6) consists of a suite of common experiments, and 21 separate CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) making a total of 244 separate experiments. Precise descriptions of the suite of CMIP6 experiments have been captured in a Common Information Model (CIM) database by the Earth System Documentation Project (ES-DOC). The database contains descriptions of forcings, model configuration requirements, ensemble information and citation links, as well as text descriptions and information about the rationale for each experiment. The database was built from statements about the experiments found in the academic literature, the MIP submissions to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), WCRP summary tables and correspondence with the principle investigators for each MIP. The database was collated using spreadsheets which are archived in the ES-DOC Github repository and then rendered on the ES-DOC website. A diagramatic view of the workflow of building the database of experiment metadata for CMIP6 is shown in the attached figure.The CIM provides the formalism to collect detailed information from diverse sources in a standard way across all the CMIP6 MIPs. The ES-DOC documentation acts as a unified reference for CMIP6 information to be used both by data producers and consumers. This is especially important given the federated nature of the CMIP6 project. Because the CIM allows forcing constraints and other experiment attributes to be referred to by more than one experiment, we can streamline the process of collecting information from modelling groups about how they set up their models for each experiment. End users of the climate model archive will be able to ask questions enabled by the interconnectedness of the metadata such as "Which MIPs make use of experiment A?" and "Which experiments use forcing constraint B?".

Response of the Antarctic ice sheet to ocean forcing using the POPSICLES coupled ice sheet-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Price, S. F.; Cornford, S. L.; Maltrud, M. E.; Ng, E. G.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

We present the response of the continental Antarctic ice sheet to sub-shelf-melt forcing derived from POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period 1990 to 2010. Simulations are performed at 0.1 degree (~5 km) ocean resolution and ice sheet resolution as fine as 500 m using adaptive mesh refinement. A comparison of fully-coupled and comparable standalone ice-sheet model results demonstrates the importance of two-way coupling between the ice sheet and the ocean. The POPSICLES model couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), and the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012). BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement to fully resolve dynamically-important regions like grounding lines and employs a momentum balance similar to the vertically-integrated formulation of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009). Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests like MISMIP3D (Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). A companion presentation, "Present-day circum-Antarctic simulations using the POPSICLES coupled land ice-ocean model" in session C027 describes the ocean-model perspective of this work, while we focus on the response of the ice sheet and on details of the model. The figure shows the BISICLES-computed vertically-integrated ice velocity field about 1 month into a 20-year coupled Antarctic run. Groundling lines are shown in green.

Theoretical modeling of the plasma-assisted catalytic growth and field emission properties of graphene sheet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharma, Suresh C.; Gupta, Neha

2015-12-15

A theoretical modeling for the catalyst-assisted growth of graphene sheet in the presence of plasma has been investigated. It is observed that the plasma parameters can strongly affect the growth and field emission properties of graphene sheet. The model developed accounts for the charging rate of the graphene sheet; number density of electrons, ions, and neutral atoms; various elementary processes on the surface of the catalyst nanoparticle; surface diffusion and accretion of ions; and formation of carbon-clusters and large graphene islands. In our investigation, it is found that the thickness of the graphene sheet decreases with the plasma parameters, numbermore » density of hydrogen ions and RF power, and consequently, the field emission of electrons from the graphene sheet surface increases. The time evolution of the height of graphene sheet with ion density and sticking coefficient of carbon species has also been examined. Some of our theoretical results are in compliance with the experimental observations.« less

Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, A.; Xie, S. P.

2016-02-01

This study documents and investigates biases in simulating summer surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the continental U.S. in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate regression analyses are used to assess the relative importance of circulation and the land surface feedback at setting summer SAT over a 30-year period (1979-2008). In observations, regions of high SAT variability are closely associated with midtropospheric highs and subsidence, consistent with adiabatic theory (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004, Lau and Nath 2012). Preliminary analysis shows the majority of the AMIP models feature high SAT variability over the central U.S., displaced south and/or west of observed centers of action (COAs). SAT COAs in models tend to be concomitant with regions of high sensible heat flux variability, suggesting an excessive land surface feedback in these models modulate U.S. summer SAT. Additionally, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a role in forcing the leading EOF mode for summer SAT, in concert with internal atmospheric variability. There is evidence that models respond to different SST patterns than observed. Addressing issues with the bulk land surface feedback and the SST-forced component of atmospheric variability may be key to improving model skill in simulating summer SAT variability over the U.S.

RAMI4PILPS: An intercomparison of formulations for the partitioning of solar radiation in land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widlowski, J.-L.; Pinty, B.; Clerici, M.; Dai, Y.; de Kauwe, M.; De Ridder, K.; Kallel, A.; Kobayashi, H.; Lavergne, T.; Ni-Meister, W.; Olchev, A.; Quaife, T.; Wang, S.; Yang, W.; Yang, Y.; Yuan, H.

2011-06-01

Remotely sensed, multiannual data sets of shortwave radiative surface fluxes are now available for assimilation into land surface schemes (LSSs) of climate and/or numerical weather prediction models. The RAMI4PILPS suite of virtual experiments assesses the accuracy and consistency of the radiative transfer formulations that provide the magnitudes of absorbed, reflected, and transmitted shortwave radiative fluxes in LSSs. RAMI4PILPS evaluates models under perfectly controlled experimental conditions in order to eliminate uncertainties arising from an incomplete or erroneous knowledge of the structural, spectral and illumination related canopy characteristics typical for model comparison with in situ observations. More specifically, the shortwave radiation is separated into a visible and near-infrared spectral region, and the quality of the simulated radiative fluxes is evaluated by direct comparison with a 3-D Monte Carlo reference model identified during the third phase of the Radiation transfer Model Intercomparison (RAMI) exercise. The RAMI4PILPS setup thus allows to focus in particular on the numerical accuracy of shortwave radiative transfer formulations and to pinpoint to areas where future model improvements should concentrate. The impact of increasing degrees of structural and spectral subgrid variability on the simulated fluxes is documented and the relevance of any thus emerging biases with respect to gross primary production estimates and shortwave radiative forcings due to snow and fire events are investigated.

Satellite Derived Volcanic Ash Product Inter-Comparison in Support to SCOPE-Nowcasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddans, Richard; Thomas, Gareth; Pavolonis, Mike; Bojinski, Stephan

2016-04-01

In support of aeronautical meteorological services, WMO organized a satellite-based volcanic ash retrieval algorithm inter-comparison activity, to improve the consistency of quantitative volcanic ash products from satellites, under the Sustained, Coordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Nowcasting (SCOPEe Nowcasting) initiative (http:/ jwww.wmo.int/pagesjprogjsatjscopee nowcasting_en.php). The aims of the intercomparison were as follows: 1. Select cases (Sarychev Peak 2009, Eyjafyallajökull 2010, Grimsvötn 2011, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle 2011, Kirishimayama 2011, Kelut 2014), and quantify the differences between satellite-derived volcanic ash cloud properties derived from different techniques and sensors; 2. Establish a basic validation protocol for satellite-derived volcanic ash cloud properties; 3. Document the strengths and weaknesses of different remote sensing approaches as a function of satellite sensor; 4. Standardize the units and quality flags associated with volcanic cloud geophysical parameters; 5. Provide recommendations to Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) and other users on how to best to utilize quantitative satellite products in operations; 6. Create a "road map" for future volcanic ash related scientific developments and inter-comparison/validation activities that can also be applied to SO2 clouds and emergent volcanic clouds. Volcanic ash satellite remote sensing experts from operational and research organizations were encouraged to participate in the inter-comparison activity, to establish the plans for the inter-comparison and to submit data sets. RAL was contracted by EUMETSAT to perform a systematic inter-comparison of all submitted datasets and results were reported at the WMO International Volcanic Ash Inter-comparison Meeting to held on 29 June - 2 July 2015 in Madison, WI, USA (http:/ /cimss.ssec.wisc.edujmeetings/vol_ash14). 26 different data sets were submitted, from a range of passive imagers and spectrometers and these were inter-compared against each other and against validation data such as CALIPSO lidar, ground-based lidar and aircraft observations. Results of the comparison exercise will be presented together with the conclusions and recommendations arising from the activity.

Dynamic Antarctic ice sheet during the early to mid-Miocene

PubMed Central

DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David; Levy, Richard H.

2016-01-01

Geological data indicate that there were major variations in Antarctic ice sheet volume and extent during the early to mid-Miocene. Simulating such large-scale changes is problematic because of a strong hysteresis effect, which results in stability once the ice sheets have reached continental size. A relatively narrow range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations indicated by proxy records exacerbates this problem. Here, we are able to simulate large-scale variability of the early to mid-Miocene Antarctic ice sheet because of three developments in our modeling approach. (i) We use a climate–ice sheet coupling method utilizing a high-resolution atmospheric component to account for ice sheet–climate feedbacks. (ii) The ice sheet model includes recently proposed mechanisms for retreat into deep subglacial basins caused by ice-cliff failure and ice-shelf hydrofracture. (iii) We account for changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of the ice sheet by using isotope-enabled climate and ice sheet models. We compare our modeling results with ice-proximal records emerging from a sedimentological drill core from the Ross Sea (Andrill-2A) that is presented in a companion article. The variability in Antarctic ice volume that we simulate is equivalent to a seawater oxygen isotope signal of 0.52–0.66‰, or a sea level equivalent change of 30–36 m, for a range of atmospheric CO2 between 280 and 500 ppm and a changing astronomical configuration. This result represents a substantial advance in resolving the long-standing model data conflict of Miocene Antarctic ice sheet and sea level variability. PMID:26903645

Repair Mechanism of Osteochondral Defect Promoted by Bioengineered Chondrocyte Sheet

PubMed Central

Kamei, Naosuke; Adachi, Nobuo; Hamanishi, Michio; Kamei, Goki; Mahmoud, Elhussein Elbadry; Nakano, Tomohiro; Iwata, Takanori; Yamato, Masayuki; Okano, Teruo; Ochi, Mitsuo

2015-01-01

Cell sheet engineering has developed as a remarkable method for cell transplantation. In the field of cartilage regeneration, several studies previously reported that cartilage defects could be regenerated by transplantation of a chondrocyte sheet using cell sheet engineering. However, it remains unclear how such a thin cell sheet could repair a deep cartilage defect. We, therefore, focused on the mechanism of cartilage repair using cell sheet engineering in this study. Chondrocyte sheets and synovial cell sheets were fabricated using cell sheet engineering, and these allogenic cell sheets were transplanted to cover an osteochondral defect in a rat model. Macroscopic and histological evaluation was performed at 4 and 12 weeks after transplantation. Analysis of the gene expression of each cell sheet and of the regenerated tissue at 1 week after transplantation was performed. In addition, green fluorescent protein (GFP) transgenic rats were used as donors (transplanted chondrocyte sheets) or recipients (osteochondral defect models) to identify the cell origin of regenerated cartilage. Cartilage repair was significantly better in the group implanted with a chondrocyte sheet than in that with a synovial cell sheet. The results of gene expression analysis suggest that the possible factor contributing to cartilage repair might be TGFβ1. Cell tracking experiments using GFP transgenic rats showed that the regenerated cartilage was largely composed of cells derived from the transplanted chondrocyte sheets. PMID:25396711

Asymmetry of the Martian Current Sheet in a Multi-fluid MHD Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panoncillo, S. G.; Egan, H. L.; Dong, C.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Brain, D. A.; Jakosky, B. M.

2017-12-01

The solar wind carries interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) lines toward Mars, where they drape around the planet's conducting ionosphere, creating a current sheet behind the planet where the magnetic field has opposite polarity on either side. In its simplest form, the current sheet is often thought of as symmetric, extending behind the planet along the Mars-Sun line. Observations and model simulations, however, demonstrate that this idealized representation is only an approximation, and the actual scenario is much more complex. The current sheet can have 3D structure, move back and forth, and be situated dawnward or duskward of the Mars-Sun line. In this project, we utilized a library of global plasma model results for Mars consisting of a collection of multi-fluid MHD simulations where solar max/min, sub-solar longitude, and the orbital position of Mars are varied individually. The model includes Martian crustal fields, and was run for identical steady solar wind conditions. This library was created for the purpose of comparing model results to MAVEN data; we looked at the results of this model library to investigate current sheet asymmetries. By altering one variable at a time we were able to measure how these variables influence the location of the current sheet. We found that the current sheet is typically shifted toward the dusk side of the planet, and that modeled asymmetries are especially prevalent during solar min. Previous model studies that lack crustal fields have found that, for a Parker spiral IMF, the current sheet will shift dawnward, while our results typically show the opposite. This could expose certain limitations in the models used, or it could reveal an interaction between the solar wind and the plasma environment of Mars that has not yet been explored. MAVEN data may be compared to the model results to confirm the sense of the modeled asymmetry. These results help us to probe the physics controlling the Martian magnetotail and atmospheric escape from Mars.

Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

2017-10-01

Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Mark; Proshuntinsky, Andrew; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Nguyen, An T.; Lindsay, Ron; Haas, Christian; Zhang, Jinlun; Diansky, Nikolay; Kwok, Ron; Maslowski, Wieslaw;

An investigation of the astronomical theory of the ice ages using a simple climate-ice sheet model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollard, D.

1978-01-01

The astronomical theory of the Quaternary ice ages is incorporated into a simple climate model for global weather; important features of the model include the albedo feedback, topography and dynamics of the ice sheets. For various parameterizations of the orbital elements, the model yields realistic assessments of the northern ice sheet. Lack of a land-sea heat capacity contrast represents one of the chief difficulties of the model.

LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, K.; Sueyoshi, T.; Marchenko, S.; Romanovsky, V.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Walsh, J.; Bigelow, N.; Hendricks, A.; Yoshikawa, K.

2013-08-01

Here, global-scale frozen ground distribution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present day (pre-industrial; 0 kya) and the LGM (21 kya). This direct method was then compared to an earlier indirect method, which categorizes underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applying to both the PMIP2 (phase II) and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 kya showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map. The soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity around the border between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground among the models, partly due to varying subsurface processes, implementation, and settings. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the PMIP3 multi-model analysis through the direct (indirect) method was 26.0 (17.7) million km2 for LGM, in contrast to 15.1 (11.2) million km2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally frozen ground decreased from 34.5 (26.6) million km2 to 18.1 (16.0) million km2. These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but from other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble - improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology - also compared better to previous knowledge derived from geomorphological and geocryological evidence. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial, paleo-, and modern climates will advance our understanding of the functionality and variability of the frozen ground subsystem in the global eco-climate system.

How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

2017-12-01

Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non-stationary) relationship between lake surface temperature and air temperature. The data-model comparison helps partition the impacts of lake-specific processes such as energy balance, mixing, sedimentation and bioturbation. We provide new insight into the patterns, amplitudes, sensitivity, and mechanisms of African temperature change.

Presentations - Lande, Lauren and others, 2015 | Alaska Division of

Science.gov Websites

Details Title: A petrological model for emplacement of the ultramafic Ni-Cu-PGE Alpha complex, eastern , Newberry, R.J., and Twelker, Evan, 2015, A petrological model for emplacement of the ultramafic Ni-Cu-PGE Sheets Maps & Other Oversized Sheets Sheet 1 A petrological model for emplacement of the ultramafic

Dynamic Inland Propagation of Thinning Due to Ice Loss at the Margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Wei Li; Li, Jun J.; Zwally, H. Jay

2012-01-01

Mass-balance analysis of the Greenland ice sheet based on surface elevation changes observed by the European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS) (1992-2002) and Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) (2003-07) indicates that the strongly increased mass loss at lower elevations (<2000 m) of the ice sheet, as observed during 2003-07, appears to induce interior ice thinning at higher elevations. In this paper, we perform a perturbation experiment with a three-dimensional anisotropic ice-flow model (AIF model) to investigate this upstream propagation. Observed thinning rates in the regions below 2000m elevation are used as perturbation inputs. The model runs with perturbation for 10 years show that the extensive mass loss at the ice-sheet margins does in fact cause interior thinning on short timescales (i.e. decadal). The modeled pattern of thinning over the ice sheet agrees with the observations, which implies that the strong mass loss since the early 2000s at low elevations has had a dynamic impact on the entire ice sheet. The modeling results also suggest that even if the large mass loss at the margins stopped, the interior ice sheet would continue thinning for 300 years and would take thousands of years for full dynamic recovery.

Validating Cryosat-2 elevation estimates with airborne laser scanner data for the Greenland ice sheet, Austfonna and Devon ice caps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simonsen, Sebastian B.; Sandberg Sørensen, Louise; Nilsson, Johan; Helm, Veit; Langley, Kirsty A.; Forsberg, Rene; Hvidegaard, Sine M.; Skourup, Henriette

2015-04-01

The ESA CryoSat-2 satellite, launched in late 2010, carries a new type of radar altimeter especially designed for monitoring changes of sea and land ice. The radar signal might penetrate into the snow pack and the depth of the radar reflecting surface depends on the ratio between the surface and the volume backscatter, which is a function of several different properties such as snow density, crystal structure and surface roughness. In case of large volume scatter, the radar waveforms become broad and the determination of the range (surface elevation) becomes more difficult. Different algorithms (retrackers) are used for the range determination, and estimated surface penetration is highly dependent on the applied retracker. As part of the ESA-CryoVEx/CryoVal-Land Ice projects, DTU Space has gathered accurate airborne laser scanner elevation measurements. Sites on the Greenland ice sheet, Austfonna and Devon ice caps, has been surveyed repeatedly, aligned with Cryosat-2 ground tracks and surface experiments. Here, we utilize elevation estimates from available Cryosat-2 retrackers (ESA level-2 retracker, DTU retracker, etc.) and validate the elevation measurements against ESA-CryoVEx campaigns. A difference between laser and radar elevations is expected due to radar penetration issues, however an inter-comparison between retrackers will shed light on individual performances and biases. Additionally, the geo-location of the radar return will also be a determining factor for the precision. Ultimately, the use of multiple retrackers can provide information about subsurface conditions and utilize more of the waveform information than presently used in radar altimetry.

Sea-level response to abrupt ocean warming of Antarctic ice shelves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattyn, Frank

2016-04-01

Antarctica's contribution to global sea-level rise increases steadily. A fundamental question remains whether the ice discharge will lead to marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and collapse of certain sectors of the ice sheet or whether ice loss will increase linearly with the warming trends. Therefore, we employ a newly developed ice sheet model of the Antarctic ice sheet, called f.ETISh (fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model) to simulate ice sheet response to abrupt perturbations in ocean and atmospheric temperature. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid (SSA/SIA) ice sheet model including ice shelves. Although vertically integrated, thermomechanical coupling is ensured through a simplified representation of ice sheet thermodynamics based on an analytical solution of the vertical temperature profile, including strain heating and horizontal advection. The marine boundary is represented by a flux condition either coherent with power-law basal sliding (Pollard & Deconto (2012) based on Schoof (2007)) or according to Coulomb basal friction (Tsai et al., 2015), both taking into account ice-shelf buttressing. Model initialization is based on optimization of the basal friction field. Besides the traditional MISMIP tests, new tests with respect to MISI in plan-view models have been devised. The model is forced with stepwise ocean and atmosphere temperature perturbations. The former is based on a parametrised sub-shelf melt (limited to ice shelves), while the latter is based on present-day mass balance/surface temperature and corrected for elevation changes. Surface melting is introduced using a PDD model. Results show a general linear response in mass loss to ocean warming. Nonlinear response due to MISI occurs under specific conditions and is highly sensitive to the basal conditions near the grounding line, governed by both the initial conditions and the basal sliding/deformation model. The Coulomb friction model leads to significantly higher sensitivity compared to power-law sliding. On longer time scales, West-antarctic inter-basin connections favor nonlinear response.

Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived from Paleoclimate Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badgeley, J.; Steig, E. J.; Hakim, G. J.; Anderson, J.; Tardif, R.

2017-12-01

Modeling past ice-sheet behavior requires independent knowledge of past surface mass balance. Though models provide useful insight into ice-sheet response to climate forcing, if past climate is unknown, then ascertaining the rate and extent of past ice-sheet change is limited to geological and geophysical constraints. We use a novel data-assimilation framework developed under the Last Millennium Reanalysis Project (Hakim et al., 2016) to reconstruct past climate over ice sheets with the intent of creating an independent surface mass balance record for paleo ice-sheet modeling. Paleoclimate data assimilation combines the physics of climate models and the time series evidence of proxy records in an offline, ensemble-based approach. This framework allows for the assimilation of numerous proxy records and archive types while maintaining spatial consistency with known climate dynamics and physics captured by the models. In our reconstruction, we use the Community Climate System Model version 4, CMIP5 last millennium simulation (Taylor et al., 2012; Landrum et al., 2013) and a nearly complete database of ice core oxygen isotope records to reconstruct Holocene surface temperature and precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet on a decadal timescale. By applying a seasonality to this reconstruction (from the TraCE-21ka simulation; Liu et al., 2009), our reanalysis can be used in seasonally-based surface mass balance models. Here we discuss the methods behind our reanalysis and the performance of our reconstruction through prediction of unassimilated proxy records and comparison to paleoclimate reconstructions and reanalysis products.

Using paleoclimate data to improve models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, M. A.; Phipps, S. J.; Roberts, J. L.; White, D.

2016-12-01

Ice sheet models are the most descriptive tools available to simulate the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), including its contribution towards changes in global sea level. However, our knowledge of the dynamics of the coupled ice-ocean-lithosphere system is inevitably limited, in part due to a lack of observations. Furthemore, to build computationally efficient models that can be run for multiple millennia, it is necessary to use simplified descriptions of ice dynamics. Ice sheet modeling is therefore an inherently uncertain exercise. The past evolution of the AIS provides an opportunity to constrain the description of physical processes within ice sheet models and, therefore, to constrain our understanding of the role of the AIS in driving changes in global sea level. We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to demonstrate how paleoclimate data can improve our ability to predict the future evolution of the AIS. A large, perturbed-physics ensemble is generated, spanning uncertainty in the parameterizations of four key physical processes within ice sheet models: ice rheology, ice shelf calving, and the stress balances within ice sheets and ice shelves. A Latin hypercube approach is used to optimally sample the range of uncertainty in parameter values. This perturbed-physics ensemble is used to simulate the evolution of the AIS from the Last Glacial Maximum ( 21,000 years ago) to present. Paleoclimate records are then used to determine which ensemble members are the most realistic. This allows us to use data on past climates to directly constrain our understanding of the past contribution of the AIS towards changes in global sea level. Critically, it also allows us to determine which ensemble members are likely to generate the most realistic projections of the future evolution of the AIS.

International NMR-based Environmental Metabolomics Intercomparison Exercise

EPA Science Inventory

Several fundamental requirements must be met so that NMR-based metabolomics and the related technique of metabonomics can be formally adopted into environmental monitoring and chemical risk assessment. Here we report an intercomparison exercise which has evaluated the effectivene...

Equilibrium sensitivities of the Greenland ice sheet inferred from the adjoint of the three- dimensional thermo-mechanical model SICOPOLIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbach, P.; Bugnion, V.

2008-12-01

We present a new and original approach to understanding the sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to key model parameters and environmental conditions. At the heart of this approach is the use of an adjoint ice sheet model. MacAyeal (1992) introduced adjoints in the context of applying control theory to estimate basal sliding parameters (basal shear stress, basal friction) of an ice stream model which minimize a least-squares model vs. observation misfit. Since then, this method has become widespread to fit ice stream models to the increasing number and diversity of satellite observations, and to estimate uncertain model parameters. However, no attempt has been made to extend this method to comprehensive ice sheet models. Here, we present a first step toward moving beyond limiting the use of control theory to ice stream models. We have generated an adjoint of the three-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice sheet model SICOPOLIS of Greve (1997). The adjoint was generated using the automatic differentiation (AD) tool TAF. TAF generates exact source code representing the tangent linear and adjoint model of the parent model provided. Model sensitivities are given by the partial derivatives of a scalar-valued model diagnostic or "cost function" with respect to the controls, and can be efficiently calculated via the adjoint. An effort to generate an efficient adjoint with the newly developed open-source AD tool OpenAD is also under way. To gain insight into the adjoint solutions, we explore various cost functions, such as local and domain-integrated ice temperature, total ice volume or the velocity of ice at the margins of the ice sheet. Elements of our control space include initial cold ice temperatures, surface mass balance, as well as parameters such as appear in Glen's flow law, or in the surface degree-day or basal sliding parameterizations. Sensitivity maps provide a comprehensive view, and allow a quantification of where and to which variables the ice sheet model is most sensitive to. The model used in the present study includes simplifications in the model physics, parameterizations which rely on uncertain empirical constants, and is unable to capture fast ice streams. Nevertheless, as a proof-of-concept, this method can readily be extended to incorporate higher-order physics or parameterizations (or be applied to other models). It also opens the door to ice sheet state estimation: using the model's physics jointly with field and satellite observations to estimate a best estimate of the state of the ice sheets.

Introduction of the 2nd Phase of the Integrated Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kollet, Stefan; Maxwell, Reed; Dages, Cecile; Mouche, Emmanuel; Mugler, Claude; Paniconi, Claudio; Park, Young-Jin; Putti, Mario; Shen, Chaopeng; Stisen, Simon; Sudicky, Edward; Sulis, Mauro; Ji, Xinye

2015-04-01

The 2nd Phase of the Integrated Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project commenced in June 2013 with a workshop at Bonn University funded by the German Science Foundation and US National Science Foundation. Three test cases were defined and compared that are available online at www.hpsc-terrsys.de including a tilted v-catchment case; a case called superslab based on multiple slab-heterogeneities in the hydraulic conductivity along a hillslope; and the Borden site case, based on a published field experiment. The goal of this phase is to further interrogate the coupling of surface-subsurface flow implemented in various integrated hydrologic models; and to understand and quantify the impact of differences in the conceptual and technical implementations on the simulation results, which may constitute an additional source of uncertainty. The focus has been broadened considerably including e.g. saturated and unsaturated subsurface storages, saturated surface area, ponded surface storage in addition to discharge, and pressure/saturation profiles and cross-sections. Here, first results are presented and discussed demonstrating the conceptual and technical challenges in implementing essentially the same governing equations describing highly non-linear moisture redistribution processes and surface-groundwater interactions.

Studies in the parameterization of cloudiness in climate models and the analysis of radiation fields in general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

HARSHVARDHAN

1990-01-01

Broad-band parameterizations for atmospheric radiative transfer were developed for clear and cloudy skies. These were in the shortwave and longwave regions of the spectrum. These models were compared with other models in an international effort called ICRCCM (Intercomparison of Radiation Codes for Climate Models). The radiation package developed was used for simulations of a General Circulation Model (GCM). A synopsis is provided of the research accomplishments in the two areas separately. Details are available in the published literature.

Magneto-mechanical modeling of electrical steel sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, U.; Rasilo, P.; Martin, F.; Singh, D.; Daniel, L.; Belahcen, A.; Rekik, M.; Hubert, O.; Kouhia, R.; Arkkio, A.

2017-10-01

A simplified multiscale approach and a Helmholtz free energy based approach for modeling the magneto-mechanical behavior of electrical steel sheets are compared. The models are identified from uniaxial magneto-mechanical measurements of two different electrical steel sheets which show different magneto-elastic behavior. Comparison with the available measurement data of the materials shows that both models successfully model the magneto-mechanical behavior of one of the studied materials, whereas for the second material only the Helmholtz free energy based approach is successful.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yim, Bo; Yeh, Sang -Wook; Sohn, Byung -Ju

Observational evidence shows that the Walker circulation (WC) in the tropical Pacific has strengthened in recent decades. In this study, we examine the WC trend for 1979–2005 and its relationship with the precipitation associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using the sea surface temperature (SST)-constrained Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. All of the 29 models show a strengthening of the WC trend in response to an increase in the SST zonal gradient along the equator. Despite the same SST-constrained AMIP simulations, however, a large diversity ismore » found among the CMIP5 climate models in the magnitude of the WC trend. The relationship between the WC trend and precipitation anomalies (PRCPAs) associated with ENSO (ENSO-related PRCPAs) shows that the longitudinal position of the ENSO-related PRCPAs in the western tropical Pacific is closely related to the magnitude of the WC trend. Specifically, it is found that the strengthening of the WC trend is large (small) in the CMIP5 AMIP simulations in which the ENSO-related PRCPAs are located relatively westward (eastward) in the western tropical Pacific. Furthermore, the zonal shift of the ENSO-related precipitation in the western tropical Pacific, which is associated with the climatological mean precipitation in the tropical Pacific, could play an important role in modifying the WC trend in the CMIP5 climate models.« less

A benchmark study of the sea-level equation in GIA modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinec, Zdenek; Klemann, Volker; van der Wal, Wouter; Riva, Riccardo; Spada, Giorgio; Simon, Karen; Blank, Bas; Sun, Yu; Melini, Daniele; James, Tom; Bradley, Sarah

2017-04-01

The sea-level load in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is described by the so called sea-level equation (SLE), which represents the mass redistribution between ice sheets and oceans on a deforming earth. Various levels of complexity of SLE have been proposed in the past, ranging from a simple mean global sea level (the so-called eustatic sea level) to the load with a deforming ocean bottom, migrating coastlines and a changing shape of the geoid. Several approaches to solve the SLE have been derived, from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Despite various teams independently investigating GIA, there has been no systematic intercomparison amongst the solvers through which the methods may be validated. The goal of this paper is to present a series of benchmark experiments designed for testing and comparing numerical implementations of the SLE. Our approach starts with simple load cases even though the benchmark will not result in GIA predictions for a realistic loading scenario. In the longer term we aim for a benchmark with a realistic loading scenario, and also for benchmark solutions with rotational feedback. The current benchmark uses an earth model for which Love numbers have been computed and benchmarked in Spada et al (2011). In spite of the significant differences in the numerical methods employed, the test computations performed so far show a satisfactory agreement between the results provided by the participants. The differences found can often be attributed to the different approximations inherent to the various algorithms. Literature G. Spada, V. R. Barletta, V. Klemann, R. E. M. Riva, Z. Martinec, P. Gasperini, B. Lund, D. Wolf, L. L. A. Vermeersen, and M. A. King, 2011. A benchmark study for glacial isostatic adjustment codes. Geophys. J. Int. 185: 106-132 doi:10.1111/j.1365-

Agricultural response functions to changes in carbon, temperature, and water based on the C3MP data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, A.; Ruane, A. C.; Phillips, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Clarke, L.

2017-12-01

Agricultural yields vary depending on temperature, precipitation/irrigation conditions, fertilizer application, and CO2 concentration. The Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), conducted as a component of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), organized a sensitivity experiments across carbon-temperature-water (CTW) space across 1100 management conditions in 50+ countries, sampling 15 crop species and 20 crop models. Such coordinated sensitivity tests allow for the building of emulators of yield response to changes in CTW values, allowing rapid estimation of yield changes from the types of climate changes projected by the climate modeling community. The resulting emulator may be used to supply agricultural responses to climate change in any user-defined scenario, rather than the restriction to the RCPs in many past works. We present the resulting emulators built from the C3MP output data set for use in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) integrated assessment model that allows for the co-evolution of socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and agricultural sector ramifications. C3MP-based emulators may be of use in designing agricultural impact studies in other IAMs, and we place them in the context of past crop modeling efforts, including the Challinor et al. Meta-analysis, the AgMIP Wheat team results, the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) fast-track modeling results, and the MACSUR impact response surface results.

Preforming of polydioxanone sheets for orbital wall fractures - A technical note.

PubMed

Kruber, Daniel; Hierl, Thomas; Doerfler, Hans-Martin; Huempfner-Hierl, Heike; Krause, Matthias

2018-07-01

Polydioxanone (PDS) sheets are commonly used in the treatment of orbital wall fractures. A potential drawback of PDS is that it may be difficult to adapt to the anatomy of the orbital walls. Therefore a study was conceived to test the feasibility of preforming PDS sheets. PDS sheet material was water-heated and preformed using a template based on a statistical anatomical model. Then the deformed sheet was cooled, stored and compared to the original model to investigate post-deformation changes. PDS sheet material could easily be deformed using a mould. No significant post-cooling shape changes were noticed. PDS sheet material can be preformed into complex geometric shapes. This could be a benefit in the treatment of orbital wall fractures. Copyright © 2018 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The western Pacific monsoon in CMIP5 models: Model evaluation and projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Josephine R.; Colman, Robert A.; Moise, Aurel F.; Smith, Ian N.

2013-11-01

ability of 35 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to simulate the western Pacific (WP) monsoon is evaluated over four representative regions around Timor, New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Palau. Coupled model simulations are compared with atmosphere-only model simulations (with observed sea surface temperatures, SSTs) to determine the impact of SST biases on model performance. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulate the WP monsoon better than previous-generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models, but some systematic biases remain. The atmosphere-only models are better able to simulate the seasonal cycle of zonal winds than the coupled models, but display comparable biases in the rainfall. The CMIP5 models are able to capture features of interannual variability in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In climate projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, monsoon rainfall is increased over most of the WP monsoon domain, while wind changes are small. Widespread rainfall increases at low latitudes in the summer hemisphere appear robust as a large majority of models agree on the sign of the change. There is less agreement on rainfall changes in winter. Interannual variability of monsoon wet season rainfall is increased in a warmer climate, particularly over Palau, Timor and the Solomon Islands. A subset of the models showing greatest skill in the current climate confirms the overall projections, although showing markedly smaller rainfall increases in the western equatorial Pacific. The changes found here may have large impacts on Pacific island countries influenced by the WP monsoon.

PM 2.5 ORGANIC SPECIATION INTERCOMPARISON RESULTS

EPA Science Inventory

This abstract describes a poster on results to a laboratory intercomparison of organic aerosol speciation analysis to be presented at the 2006 International Aerosol Conference sponsored by the American Association for Aerosol Research in St. Paul, Minnesota on September 10-15. T...

Intercomparison of a 'Bottom-up' and 'Top-down' Modeling Paradigm for estimating carbon and latent heat fluxes over a variety of vegetative regimes across the U.S., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biophysical models intended for routine applications at a range of scales should attempt to balance the competing demands of generality and simplicity and be capable of realistically simulating the response of CO2 and energy fluxes to environmental and physiological forcings. At the same time they m...

Total ozone measurement: Intercomparison of prototype New Zealand filter instrument and Dobson spectrophotometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basher, R. E.

1978-01-01

A five month intercomparison showed that the total ozone amounts of a prototype narrowband interference filter instrument were 7% less than those of a Dobson instrument for an ozone range of 0.300 to 0.500 atm cm and for airmasses less than two. The 7% bias was within the intercomparison calibration uncertainty. An airmass dependence in the Dobson instrument made the bias relationship airmass-dependent but the filter instrument's ozone values were generally constant to 2% up to an airmass of four. Long term drift in the bias was negligible.

Fabrication and characterization of optical super-smooth surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, Dirk-Roger; Kratz, Frank; Ringel, Gabriele A.; Mangelsdorf, Juergen; Creuzet, Francois; Garratt, John D.

1995-08-01

Intercomparison roughness measurements have been carried out at supersmooth artefacts fabricated from BK7, fused silica, and Zerodur. The surface parameters were determined using a special prototype of the mechanical profiler Nanostep (Rank Taylor Hobson), the Optical Heterodyne Profiler Z5500 (Zygo), and an Atomic Force Microscope (Park Scientific) with an improved acquisition technique. The intercomparison was performed after the range of collected spatial wavelength for each instrument was adjusted using digital filtering techniques. It is demonstrated for different roughness ranges that are applied superpolishing techniques yield supersmooth artefacts which can be used for more intercomparisons.

Water vapour inter-comparison effort in the framework of the hydrological cycle in the mediterranean experiment - special observation period (hymex-sop1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summa, Donato; Di Girolamo, Paolo; Flamant, Cyrille; De Rosa, Benedetto; Cacciani, Marco; Stelitano, Dario

2018-04-01

Accurate measurements of the vertical profiles of water vapour are of paramount importance for most key areas of atmospheric sciences. A comprehensive inter-comparison between different remote sensing and in-situ sensors has been carried out in the frame work of the first Special Observing Period of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment for the purpose of obtaining accurate error estimates for these sensors. The inter-comparison involves a ground-based Raman lidar (BASIL), an airborne DIAL (LEANDRE2), a microwave radiometer, radiosondes and aircraft in-situ sensors.

Evaluation of the annual Canadian biodosimetry network intercomparisons

PubMed Central

Wilkins, Ruth C.; Beaton-Green, Lindsay A.; Lachapelle, Sylvie; Kutzner, Barbara C.; Ferrarotto, Catherine; Chauhan, Vinita; Marro, Leonora; Livingston, Gordon K.; Boulay Greene, Hillary; Flegal, Farrah N.

2015-01-01

Abstract Purpose: To evaluate the importance of annual intercomparisons for maintaining the capacity and capabilities of a well-established biodosimetry network in conjunction with assessing efficient and effective analysis methods for emergency response. Materials and methods: Annual intercomparisons were conducted between laboratories in the Canadian National Biological Dosimetry Response Plan. Intercomparisons were performed over a six-year period and comprised of the shipment of 10–12 irradiated, blinded blood samples for analysis by each of the participating laboratories. Dose estimates were determined by each laboratory using the dicentric chromosome assay (conventional and QuickScan scoring) and where possible the cytokinesis block micronucleus (CBMN) assay. Dose estimates were returned to the lead laboratory for evaluation and comparison. Results: Individual laboratories performed comparably from year to year with only slight fluctuations in performance. Dose estimates using the dicentric chromosome assay were accurate about 80% of the time and the QuickScan method for scoring the dicentric chromosome assay was proven to reduce the time of analysis without having a significant effect on the dose estimates. Although analysis with the CBMN assay was comparable to QuickScan scoring with respect to speed, the accuracy of the dose estimates was greatly reduced. Conclusions: Annual intercomparisons are necessary to maintain a network of laboratories for emergency response biodosimetry as they evoke confidence in their capabilities. PMID:25670072

Intercomparison of middle-atmospheric wind in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rüfenacht, Rolf; Baumgarten, Gerd; Hildebrand, Jens; Schranz, Franziska; Matthias, Vivien; Stober, Gunter; Lübken, Franz-Josef; Kämpfer, Niklaus

2018-04-01

Wind profile information throughout the entire upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (USLM) is important for the understanding of atmospheric dynamics but became available only recently, thanks to developments in remote sensing techniques and modelling approaches. However, as wind measurements from these altitudes are rare, such products have generally not yet been validated with (other) observations. This paper presents the first long-term intercomparison of wind observations in the USLM by co-located microwave radiometer and lidar instruments at Andenes, Norway (69.3° N, 16.0° E). Good correspondence has been found at all altitudes for both horizontal wind components for nighttime as well as daylight conditions. Biases are mostly within the random errors and do not exceed 5-10 m s-1, which is less than 10 % of the typically encountered wind speeds. Moreover, comparisons of the observations with the major reanalyses and models covering this altitude range are shown, in particular with the recently released ERA5, ECMWF's first reanalysis to cover the whole USLM region. The agreement between models and observations is very good in general, but temporally limited occurrences of pronounced discrepancies (up to 40 m s-1) exist. In the article's Appendix the possibility of obtaining nighttime wind information about the mesopause region by means of microwave radiometry is investigated.

The Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, S.; Greenslade, M. A.; Treshansky, A.; DeLuca, C.; Guilyardi, E.; Denvil, S.

2013-12-01

Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) is an international project supplying high quality tools and services in support of Earth system documentation creation, analysis and dissemination. It is nurturing a sustainable standards based documentation ecosystem that aims to become an integral part of the next generation of exa-scale dataset archives. ES-DOC leverages open source software, and applies a software development methodology that places end-user narratives at the heart of all it does. ES-DOC has initially focused upon nurturing the Earth System Model (ESM) documentation eco-system. Within this context ES-DOC leverages the emerging Common Information Model (CIM) metadata standard, which has supported the following projects: ** Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5); ** Dynamical Core Model Inter-comparison Project (DCMIP-2012); ** National Climate Predictions and Projections Platforms (NCPP) Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop (QED-2013). This presentation will introduce the project to a wider audience and will demonstrate the current production level capabilities of the eco-system: ** An ESM documentation Viewer embeddable into any website; ** An ESM Questionnaire configurable on a project by project basis; ** An ESM comparison tool reusable across projects; ** An ESM visualization tool reusable across projects; ** A search engine for speedily accessing published documentation; ** Libraries for streamlining document creation, validation and publishing pipelines.

The ASSET intercomparison of stratosphere and lower mesosphere humidity analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, H. E.; Jackson, D. R.; Bekki, S.; Bormann, N.; Errera, Q.; Geer, A. J.; Lahoz, W. A.; Rharmili, S.

2009-02-01

This paper presents results from the first detailed intercomparison of stratosphere-lower mesosphere water vapour analyses; it builds on earlier results from the EU funded framework V "Assimilation of ENVISAT Data" (ASSET) project. Stratospheric water vapour plays an important role in many key atmospheric processes and therefore an improved understanding of its daily variability is desirable. With the availability of high resolution, good quality Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) water vapour profiles, the ability of four different atmospheric models to assimilate these data is tested. MIPAS data have been assimilated over September 2003 into the models of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Belgian Institute for Space and Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), the French Service d'Aéronomie (SA-IPSL) and the UK Met Office. The resultant middle atmosphere humidity analyses are compared against independent satellite data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II). The MIPAS water vapour profiles are generally well assimilated in the ECMWF, BIRA-IASB and SA systems, producing stratosphere-mesosphere water vapour fields where the main features compare favourably with the independent observations. However, the models are less capable of assimilating the MIPAS data where water vapour values are locally extreme or in regions of strong humidity gradients, such as the southern hemisphere lower stratosphere polar vortex. Differences in the analyses can be attributed to the choice of humidity control variable, how the background error covariance matrix is generated, the model resolution and its complexity, the degree of quality control of the observations and the use of observations near the model boundaries. Due to the poor performance of the Met Office analyses the results are not included in the intercomparison, but are discussed separately. The Met Office results highlight the pitfalls in humidity assimilation, and provide lessons that should be learnt by developers of stratospheric humidity assimilation systems. In particular, they underline the importance of the background error covariances in generating a realistic troposphere to mesosphere water vapour analysis.

Complex Greenland outlet glacier flow captured

PubMed Central

Aschwanden, Andy; Fahnestock, Mark A.; Truffer, Martin

2016-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate due to increased surface melt and flow acceleration in outlet glaciers. Quantifying future dynamic contributions to sea level requires accurate portrayal of outlet glaciers in ice sheet simulations, but to date poor knowledge of subglacial topography and limited model resolution have prevented reproduction of complex spatial patterns of outlet flow. Here we combine a high-resolution ice-sheet model coupled to uniformly applied models of subglacial hydrology and basal sliding, and a new subglacial topography data set to simulate the flow of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Flow patterns of many outlet glaciers are well captured, illustrating fundamental commonalities in outlet glacier flow and highlighting the importance of efforts to map subglacial topography. Success in reproducing present day flow patterns shows the potential for prognostic modelling of ice sheets without the need for spatially varying parameters with uncertain time evolution. PMID:26830316

Troughs on Martian Ice Sheets: Analysis of Their Closure and Mass Balance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fountain, A.; Kargel, J.; Lewis, K.; MacAyeal, D.; Pfeffer, T.; Zwally, J.

2000-01-01

At the Copenhagen workshop on Martian polar processes, Ralf Greve commented that the flow regime surrounding scarps and troughs of the Martian polar ice sheets cannot be modeled using traditional "plan view" ice-sheet models. Such models are inadequate because they typically use reduced equations that embody certain simplifications applicable only to terrestrial ice sheets where the upper ice sheet surface is smooth. In response to this suggestion, we have constructed a 2-dimensional, time dependent "side view" (two spatial dimensions: one horizontal, one vertical) model of scarp closure that is designed to overcome the difficulties described by Greve. The purpose of the model is to evaluate the scales of stress variation and styles of flow closure so as to estimate errors that may be encountered by "plan view" models. We show that there may be avenues whereby the complications associated with scarp closure can be overcome in "plan view" models through appropriate parameterizations of 3-dimensional effects. Following this, we apply the flow model to simulate the evolution of a typical scarp on the North Polar Cap of Mars. Our simulations investigate: (a) the role of "radiation trapping" (see our companion abstract) in creating and maintaining "spiral-like" scarps on the ice sheet, (b) the consequences of different flowlaws and ice compositions on scarp evolution and, in particular, scarp age, and (c) the role of dust and debris in scarp evolution.

An intercomparison of available soil moisture estimates from thermal-infrared and passive microwave remote sensing and land-surface modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Remotely-sensed soil moisture studies have mainly focused on retrievals using active and passive microwave (MW) sensors whose measurements provided a direct relationship to soil moisture (SM). MW sensors present obvious advantages such as the ability to retrieve through non-precipitating cloud cover...

An intercomparison study of TSM, SEBS, and SEBAL using high-resolution imagery and lysimetric data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Over the past three decades, numerous remote sensing based ET mapping algorithms were developed. These algorithms provided a robust, economical, and efficient tool for ET estimations at field and regional scales. The Two Source Model (TSM), Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), and Surface Energy Ba...

Groundwater flow and heat transport for systems undergoing freeze-thaw: Intercomparison of numerical simulators for 2D test cases

DOE PAGES

Grenier, Christophe; Anbergen, Hauke; Bense, Victor; ...

2018-02-26

In high-elevation, boreal and arctic regions, hydrological processes and associated water bodies can be strongly influenced by the distribution of permafrost. Recent field and modeling studies indicate that a fully-coupled multidimensional thermo-hydraulic approach is required to accurately model the evolution of these permafrost-impacted landscapes and groundwater systems. However, the relatively new and complex numerical codes being developed for coupled non-linear freeze-thaw systems require verification. Here in this paper, this issue is addressed by means of an intercomparison of thirteen numerical codes for two-dimensional test cases with several performance metrics (PMs). These codes comprise a wide range of numerical approaches, spatialmore » and temporal discretization strategies, and computational efficiencies. Results suggest that the codes provide robust results for the test cases considered and that minor discrepancies are explained by computational precision. However, larger discrepancies are observed for some PMs resulting from differences in the governing equations, discretization issues, or in the freezing curve used by some codes.« less

Groundwater flow and heat transport for systems undergoing freeze-thaw: Intercomparison of numerical simulators for 2D test cases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grenier, Christophe; Anbergen, Hauke; Bense, Victor

In high-elevation, boreal and arctic regions, hydrological processes and associated water bodies can be strongly influenced by the distribution of permafrost. Recent field and modeling studies indicate that a fully-coupled multidimensional thermo-hydraulic approach is required to accurately model the evolution of these permafrost-impacted landscapes and groundwater systems. However, the relatively new and complex numerical codes being developed for coupled non-linear freeze-thaw systems require verification. Here in this paper, this issue is addressed by means of an intercomparison of thirteen numerical codes for two-dimensional test cases with several performance metrics (PMs). These codes comprise a wide range of numerical approaches, spatialmore » and temporal discretization strategies, and computational efficiencies. Results suggest that the codes provide robust results for the test cases considered and that minor discrepancies are explained by computational precision. However, larger discrepancies are observed for some PMs resulting from differences in the governing equations, discretization issues, or in the freezing curve used by some codes.« less

Translating hydrologically-relevant variables from the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS to the Greenland Analog Project hydrologic modeling domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallot, Dorothée; Applegate, Patrick; Pettersson, Rickard

2013-04-01

Projecting future climate and ice sheet development requires sophisticated models and extensive field observations. Given the present state of our knowledge, it is very difficult to say what will happen with certainty. Despite the ongoing increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the possibility that a new ice sheet might form over Scandinavia in the far distant future cannot be excluded. The growth of a new Scandinavian Ice Sheet would have important consequences for buried nuclear waste repositories. The Greenland Analogue Project, initiated by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB), is working to assess the effects of a possible future ice sheet on groundwater flow by studying a constrained domain in Western Greenland by field measurements (including deep bedrock drilling in front of the ice sheet) combined with numerical modeling. To address the needs of the GAP project, we interpolated results from an ensemble of ice sheet model runs to the smaller and more finely resolved modeling domain used in the GAP project's hydrologic modeling. Three runs have been chosen with three fairly different positive degree-day factors among those that reproduced the modern ice margin at the borehole position. The interpolated results describe changes in hydrologically-relevant variables over two time periods, 115 ka to 80 ka, and 20 ka to 1 ka. In the first of these time periods, the ice margin advances over the model domain; in the second time period, the ice margin retreats over the model domain. The spatially-and temporally dependent variables that we treated include the ice thickness, basal melting rate, surface mass balance, basal temperature, basal thermal regime (frozen or thawed), surface temperature, and basal water pressure. The melt flux is also calculated.

An advanced constitutive model in the sheet metal forming simulation: the Teodosiu microstructural model and the Cazacu Barlat yield criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, J. L.; Oliveira, M. C.; Menezes, L. F.

2004-06-01

Two constitutive models used to describe the plastic behavior of sheet metals in the numerical simulation of sheet metal forming process are studied: a recently proposed advanced constitutive model based on the Teodosiu microstructural model and the Cazacu Barlat yield criterion is compared with a more classical one, based on the Swift law and the Hill 1948 yield criterion. These constitutive models are implemented into DD3IMP, a finite element home code specifically developed to simulate sheet metal forming processes, which generically is a 3-D elastoplastic finite element code with an updated Lagrangian formulation, following a fully implicit time integration scheme, large elastoplastic strains and rotations. Solid finite elements and parametric surfaces are used to model the blank sheet and tool surfaces, respectively. Some details of the numerical implementation of the constitutive models are given. Finally, the theory is illustrated with the numerical simulation of the deep drawing of a cylindrical cup. The results show that the proposed advanced constitutive model predicts with more exactness the final shape (medium height and ears profile) of the formed part, as one can conclude from the comparison with the experimental results.

Using an extreme bony prominence anatomical model to examine the influence of bed sheet materials and bed making methods on the distribution of pressure on the support surface.

PubMed

Iuchi, Terumi; Nakajima, Yukari; Fukuda, Moriyoshi; Matsuo, Junko; Okamoto, Hiroyuki; Sanada, Hiromi; Sugama, Junko

2014-05-01

Bed sheets generate high surface tension across the support surface and increase pressure to the body through a process known as the hammock effect. Using an anatomical model and a loading device characterized by extreme bony prominences, the present study compared pressure distributions on support surfaces across different bed making methods and bed sheet materials to determine the factors that influence pressure distribution. The model was placed on a pressure mapping system (CONFORMat; NITTA Corp., Osaka, Japan), and interface pressure was measured. Bed sheet elasticity and friction between the support surface and the bed sheets were also measured. For maximum interface pressure, the relative values of the following methods were higher than those of the control method, which did not use any bed sheets: cotton sheets with hospital corners (1.28, p = 0.02), polyester with no corners (1.29, p = 0.01), cotton with no corners (1.31, p = 0.003), and fitted polyester sheets (1.35, p = 0.002). Stepwise multiple regression analysis indicated that maximum interface pressure was negatively correlated with bed sheet elasticity (R(2) = 0.74). A statistically significant negative correlation was observed between maximum interface pressure and immersion depth, which was measured using the loading device (r = -0.40 and p = 0.04). We found that several combinations of bed making methods and bed sheet materials induced maximum interface pressures greater than those observed for the control method. Bed sheet materials influenced maximum interface pressure, and bed sheet elasticity was particularly important in reducing maximum interface pressure. Copyright © 2014 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Laurentide Ice-Sheet Meltwater Sources to the Gulf of Mexico During the Last Deglaciation: Assessing Data Reconstructions Using Water Isotope Enabled Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vetter, L.; LeGrande, A. N.; Ullman, D. J.; Carlson, A. E.

2017-12-01

Sediment cores from the Gulf of Mexico show evidence of meltwater derived from the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the last deglaciation. Recent studies using geochemical measurements of individual foraminifera suggest changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of the meltwater as deglaciation proceeded. Here we use the water isotope enabled climate model simulations (NASA GISS ModelE-R) to investigate potential sources of meltwater within the ice sheet. We find that initial melting of the ice sheet from the southern margin contributed an oxygen isotope value reflecting a low-elevation, local precipitation source. As deglacial melting proceeded, meltwater delivered to the Gulf of Mexico had a more negative oxygen isotopic value, which the climate model simulates as being sourced from the high-elevation, high-latitude interior of the ice sheet. This study demonstrates the utility of combining stable isotope analyses with climate model simulations to investigate past changes in the hydrologic cycle.

The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, M. A.; Winkelmann, R.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

2010-08-01

We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated dynamic calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of streams in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.

Influence of temperature fluctuations on equilibrium
ice sheet volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bøgeholm Mikkelsen, Troels; Grinsted, Aslak; Ditlevsen, Peter

2018-01-01

Forecasting the future sea level relies on accurate modeling of the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to changing temperatures. The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has a nonlinear response to warming. Cold and warm anomalies of equal size do not cancel out and it is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual fluctuations in temperature. We find that the steady-state volume of an ice sheet is biased toward larger size if interannual temperature fluctuations are not taken into account in numerical modeling of the ice sheet. We illustrate this in a simple ice sheet model and find that the equilibrium ice volume is approximately 1 m SLE (meters sea level equivalent) smaller when the simple model is forced with fluctuating temperatures as opposed to a stable climate. It is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual temperature fluctuations when designing long experiments such as paleo-spin-ups. We show how the magnitude of the potential bias can be quantified statistically. For recent simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, we estimate the bias to be 30 Gt yr-1 (24-59 Gt yr-1, 95 % credibility) for a warming of 3 °C above preindustrial values, or 13 % (10-25, 95 % credibility) of the present-day rate of ice loss. Models of the Greenland Ice Sheet show a collapse threshold beyond which the ice sheet becomes unsustainable. The proximity of the threshold will be underestimated if temperature fluctuations are not taken into account. We estimate the bias to be 0.12 °C (0.10-0.18 °C, 95 % credibility) for a recent estimate of the threshold. In light of our findings it is important to gauge the extent to which this increased variability will influence the mass balance of the ice sheets.

Development of a Prediction Model Based on RBF Neural Network for Sheet Metal Fixture Locating Layout Design and Optimization.

PubMed

Wang, Zhongqi; Yang, Bo; Kang, Yonggang; Yang, Yuan

2016-01-01

Fixture plays an important part in constraining excessive sheet metal part deformation at machining, assembly, and measuring stages during the whole manufacturing process. However, it is still a difficult and nontrivial task to design and optimize sheet metal fixture locating layout at present because there is always no direct and explicit expression describing sheet metal fixture locating layout and responding deformation. To that end, an RBF neural network prediction model is proposed in this paper to assist design and optimization of sheet metal fixture locating layout. The RBF neural network model is constructed by training data set selected by uniform sampling and finite element simulation analysis. Finally, a case study is conducted to verify the proposed method.

Development of a Prediction Model Based on RBF Neural Network for Sheet Metal Fixture Locating Layout Design and Optimization

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhongqi; Yang, Bo; Kang, Yonggang; Yang, Yuan

2016-01-01

Fixture plays an important part in constraining excessive sheet metal part deformation at machining, assembly, and measuring stages during the whole manufacturing process. However, it is still a difficult and nontrivial task to design and optimize sheet metal fixture locating layout at present because there is always no direct and explicit expression describing sheet metal fixture locating layout and responding deformation. To that end, an RBF neural network prediction model is proposed in this paper to assist design and optimization of sheet metal fixture locating layout. The RBF neural network model is constructed by training data set selected by uniform sampling and finite element simulation analysis. Finally, a case study is conducted to verify the proposed method. PMID:27127499

Glaciological constraints on current ice mass changes from modelling the ice sheets over the glacial cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huybrechts, P.

2003-04-01

The evolution of continental ice sheets introduces a long time scale in the climate system. Large ice sheets have a memory of millenia, hence the present-day ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are still adjusting to climatic variations extending back to the last glacial period. This trend is separate from the direct response to mass-balance changes on decadal time scales and needs to be correctly accounted for when assessing current and future contributions to sea level. One way to obtain estimates of current ice mass changes is to model the past history of the ice sheets and their underlying beds over the glacial cycles. Such calculations assist to distinguish between the longer-term ice-dynamic evolution and short-term mass-balance changes when interpreting altimetry data, and are helpful to isolate the effects of postglacial rebound from gravity and altimetry trends. The presentation will discuss results obtained from 3-D thermomechanical ice-sheet/lithosphere/bedrock models applied to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. The simulations are forced by time-dependent boundary conditions derived from sediment and ice core records and are constrained by geomorphological and glacial-geological data of past ice sheet and sea-level stands. Current simulations suggest that the Greenland ice sheet is close to balance, while the Antarctic ice sheet is still losing mass, mainly due to incomplete grounding-line retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet since the LGM. The results indicate that altimetry trends are likely dominated by ice thickness changes but that the gravitational signal mainly reflects postglacial rebound.

Inter-comparison of Computer Codes for TRISO-based Fuel Micro-Modeling and Performance Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brian Boer; Chang Keun Jo; Wen Wu

2010-10-01

The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), the Deep Burn Pebble Bed Reactor (DB-PBR) and the Deep Burn Prismatic Block Reactor (DB-PMR) are all based on fuels that use TRISO particles as their fundamental constituent. The TRISO particle properties include very high durability in radiation environments, hence the designs reliance on the TRISO to form the principal barrier to radioactive materials release. This durability forms the basis for the selection of this fuel type for applications such as Deep Bun (DB), which require exposures up to four times those expected for light water reactors. It follows that the study and predictionmore » of the durability of TRISO particles must be carried as part of the safety and overall performance characterization of all the designs mentioned above. Such evaluations have been carried out independently by the performers of the DB project using independently developed codes. These codes, PASTA, PISA and COPA, incorporate models for stress analysis on the various layers of the TRISO particle (and of the intervening matrix material for some of them), model for fission products release and migration then accumulation within the SiC layer of the TRISO particle, just next to the layer, models for free oxygen and CO formation and migration to the same location, models for temperature field modeling within the various layers of the TRISO particle and models for the prediction of failure rates. All these models may be either internal to the code or external. This large number of models and the possibility of different constitutive data and model formulations and the possibility of a variety of solution techniques makes it highly unlikely that the model would give identical results in the modeling of identical situations. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of an inter-comparison between the codes and to identify areas of agreement and areas that need reconciliation. The inter-comparison has been carried out by the cooperating institutions using a set of pre-defined TRISO conditions (burnup levels, temperature or power levels, etc.) and the outcome will be tabulated in the full length paper. The areas of agreement will be pointed out and the areas that require further modeling or reconciliation will be shown. In general the agreement between the codes is good within less than one order of magnitude in the prediction of TRISO failure rates.« less

Inter-comparison of time series models of lake levels predicted by several modeling strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatibi, R.; Ghorbani, M. A.; Naghipour, L.; Jothiprakash, V.; Fathima, T. A.; Fazelifard, M. H.

2014-04-01

Five modeling strategies are employed to analyze water level time series of six lakes with different physical characteristics such as shape, size, altitude and range of variations. The models comprise chaos theory, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) - treated for seasonality and hence SARIMA, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Each is formulated on a different premise with different underlying assumptions. Chaos theory is elaborated in a greater detail as it is customary to identify the existence of chaotic signals by a number of techniques (e.g. average mutual information and false nearest neighbors) and future values are predicted using the Nonlinear Local Prediction (NLP) technique. This paper takes a critical view of past inter-comparison studies seeking a superior performance, against which it is reported that (i) the performances of all five modeling strategies vary from good to poor, hampering the recommendation of a clear-cut predictive model; (ii) the performances of the datasets of two cases are consistently better with all five modeling strategies; (iii) in other cases, their performances are poor but the results can still be fit-for-purpose; (iv) the simultaneous good performances of NLP and SARIMA pull their underlying assumptions to different ends, which cannot be reconciled. A number of arguments are presented including the culture of pluralism, according to which the various modeling strategies facilitate an insight into the data from different vantages.

Modeling North American Ice Sheet Response to Changes in Precession and Obliquity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabor, C.; Poulsen, C. J.; Pollard, D.

2012-12-01

Milankovitch theory proposes that changes in insolation due to orbital perturbations dictate the waxing and waning of the ice sheets (Hays et al., 1976). However, variations in solar forcing alone are insufficient to produce the glacial oscillations observed in the climate record. Non-linear feedbacks in the Earth system likely work in concert with the orbital cycles to produce a modified signal (e.g. Berger and Loutre, 1996), but the nature of these feedbacks remain poorly understood. To gain a better understand of the ice dynamics and climate feedbacks associated with changes in orbital configuration, we use a complex Earth system model consisting of the GENESIS GCM and land surface model (Pollard and Thompson, 1997), the Pennsylvania State University ice sheet model (Pollard and DeConto, 2009), and the BIOME vegetation model (Kaplan et al., 2001). We began this study by investigating ice sheet sensitivity to a range of commonly used ice sheet model parameters, including mass balance and albedo, to optimize simulations for Pleistocene orbital cycles. Our tests indicate that choice of mass balance and albedo parameterizations can lead to significant differences in ice sheet behavior and volume. For instance, use of an insolation-temperature mass balance scheme (van den Berg, 2008) allows for a larger ice sheet response to orbital changes than the commonly employed positive degree-day method. Inclusion of a large temperature dependent ice albedo, representing phenomena such as melt ponds and dirty ice, also enhances ice sheet sensitivity. Careful tuning of mass balance and albedo parameterizations can help alleviate the problem of insufficient ice sheet retreat during periods of high summer insolation (Horton and Poulsen, 2007) while still accurately replicating the modern climate. Using our optimized configuration, we conducted a series of experiments with idealized transient orbits in an asynchronous coupling scheme to investigate the influence of obliquity and precession on the Laurentide and Cordillera ice sheets of North America. Preliminary model results show that the ice sheet response to changes in obliquity are larger than for precession despite providing a smaller direct insolation variation in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. A combination of enhanced Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude temperature gradient and longer cycle duration allow for a larger ice sheet response to obliquity than would be expected from insolation forcing alone. Conversely, a shorter duration dampens the ice sheet response to precession. Nevertheless, the precession cycle does cause significant changes in ice volume, a feature not observed in the Early Pleistocene δ18O records (Raymo and Nisancioglu, 2003). Future work will examine the climate response to an idealized transient orbit that includes concurrent variations in obliquity, precession, and eccentricity.

Cloud-resolving model intercomparison of an MC3E squall line case: Part I-Convective updrafts: CRM Intercomparison of a Squall Line

DOE PAGES

Fan, Jiwen; Han, Bin; Varble, Adam; ...

2017-09-06

An intercomparison study of a midlatitude mesoscale squall line is performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 1 km horizontal grid spacing with eight different cloud microphysics schemes to investigate processes that contribute to the large variability in simulated cloud and precipitation properties. All simulations tend to produce a wider area of high radar reflectivity (Z e > 45 dBZ) than observed but a much narrower stratiform area. Furthermore, the magnitude of the virtual potential temperature drop associated with the gust front passage is similar in simulations and observations, while the pressure rise and peak wind speedmore » are smaller than observed, possibly suggesting that simulated cold pools are shallower than observed. Most of the microphysics schemes overestimate vertical velocity and Z e in convective updrafts as compared with observational retrievals. Simulated precipitation rates and updraft velocities have significant variability across the eight schemes, even in this strongly dynamically driven system. Differences in simulated updraft velocity correlate well with differences in simulated buoyancy and low-level vertical perturbation pressure gradient, which appears related to cold pool intensity that is controlled by the evaporation rate. Simulations with stronger updrafts have a more optimal convective state, with stronger cold pools, ambient low-level vertical wind shear, and rear-inflow jets. We found that updraft velocity variability between schemes is mainly controlled by differences in simulated ice-related processes, which impact the overall latent heating rate, whereas surface rainfall variability increases in no-ice simulations mainly because of scheme differences in collision-coalescence parameterizations.« less

Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bauer, Susanne

2015-02-09

We participated in a FASTER SCM intercomparison for which we ran our SCM for 3 years at the SGP to analyze statistics of the precipitation field (Song et al., 2013). An important feature of these simulations was the use of relaxation forcing to observed T, q, which decouples the model convection from the forcing and allows precipitation errors to emerge. Because the GISS cumulus parameterization includes a trigger that prevents convection until sufficient lifting is present, and because convection at the SGP is usually triggered by mesoscale motions that are not represented in the forcing when relaxation is applied, themore » duration of SCM precipitation is shorter than observed (Del Genio and Wolf, 2012) and thus its mean precipitation less than observed. However, its diurnal cycle phase is correct, and it is the only operational cumulus parameterization in the intercomparison that does not produce excessive warm season precipitation under weak large-scale forcing conditions.« less

Research on Al-alloy sheet forming formability during warm/hot sheet hydroforming based on elliptical warm bulging test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Gaoshen; Wu, Chuanyu; Gao, Zepu; Lang, Lihui; Alexandrov, Sergei

2018-05-01

An elliptical warm/hot sheet bulging test under different temperatures and pressure rates was carried out to predict Al-alloy sheet forming limit during warm/hot sheet hydroforming. Using relevant formulas of ultimate strain to calculate and dispose experimental data, forming limit curves (FLCS) in tension-tension state of strain (TTSS) area are obtained. Combining with the basic experimental data obtained by uniaxial tensile test under the equivalent condition with bulging test, complete forming limit diagrams (FLDS) of Al-alloy are established. Using a quadratic polynomial curve fitting method, material constants of fitting function are calculated and a prediction model equation for sheet metal forming limit is established, by which the corresponding forming limit curves in TTSS area can be obtained. The bulging test and fitting results indicated that the sheet metal FLCS obtained were very accurate. Also, the model equation can be used to instruct warm/hot sheet bulging test.

Ocean Tide Influences on the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padman, Laurie; Siegfried, Matthew R.; Fricker, Helen A.

2018-03-01

Ocean tides are the main source of high-frequency variability in the vertical and horizontal motion of ice sheets near their marine margins. Floating ice shelves, which occupy about three quarters of the perimeter of Antarctica and the termini of four outlet glaciers in northern Greenland, rise and fall in synchrony with the ocean tide. Lateral motion of floating and grounded portions of ice sheets near their marine margins can also include a tidal component. These tide-induced signals provide insight into the processes by which the oceans can affect ice sheet mass balance and dynamics. In this review, we summarize in situ and satellite-based measurements of the tidal response of ice shelves and grounded ice, and spatial variability of ocean tide heights and currents around the ice sheets. We review sensitivity of tide heights and currents as ocean geometry responds to variations in sea level, ice shelf thickness, and ice sheet mass and extent. We then describe coupled ice-ocean models and analytical glacier models that quantify the effect of ocean tides on lower-frequency ice sheet mass loss and motion. We suggest new observations and model developments to improve the representation of tides in coupled models that are used to predict future ice sheet mass loss and the associated contribution to sea level change. The most critical need is for new data to improve maps of bathymetry, ice shelf draft, spatial variability of the drag coefficient at the ice-ocean interface, and higher-resolution models with improved representation of tidal energy sinks.

Tissue-engineered thyroid cell sheet rescued hypothyroidism in rat models after receiving total thyroidectomy comparing with nontransplantation models.

PubMed

Arauchi, Ayumi; Shimizu, Tatsuya; Yamato, Masayuki; Obara, Takao; Okano, Teruo

2009-12-01

For hormonal deficiency caused by endocrine organ diseases, continuous oral hormone administration is indispensable to supplement the shortage of hormones. In this study, as a more effective therapy, we have tried to reconstruct the three-dimensional thyroid tissue by the cell sheet technology, a novel tissue engineering approach. The cell suspension obtained from rat thyroid gland was cultured on temperature-responsive culture dishes, from which confluent cells detach as a cell sheet simply by reducing temperature without any enzymatic treatment. The 8-week-old Lewis rats were exposed to total thyroidectomy as hypothyroidism models and received thyroid cell sheet transplantation 1 week after total thyroidectomy. Serum levels of free triiodothyronine (fT(3)) and free thyroxine (fT(4)) significantly decreased 1 week after total thyroidectomy. On the other hand, transplantation of the thyroid cell sheets was able to restore the thyroid function 1 week after the cell sheet transplantation, and improvement was maintained for 4 weeks. Moreover, morphological analyses showed typical thyroid follicle organization, and anti-thyroid-transcription-factor-1 antibody staining demonstrated the presence of follicle epithelial cells. The presence of functional microvessels was also detected within the engineered thyroid tissues. In conclusion, our results indicate that thyroid cell sheets transplanted in a model of total thyroidectomy can reorganize histologically to resemble a typical thyroid gland and restore thyroid function in vivo. In this study, we are the first to confirm that engineered thyroid tissue can repair hypothyroidism models in rats and, therefore, cell sheet transplantation of endocrine organs may be suitable for the therapy of hormonal deficiency.

An Imminent Revolution in Modeling Interactions of Ice Sheets With Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, T.

2008-12-01

Modeling continental ice sheets was inaugurated by meteorologists William Budd and Uwe Radok, with mathematician Richard Jenssen, in 1971. Their model calculated the thermal and mechanical regime using measured surface accumulation rates, temperatures, and elevations, and bed topography. This top-down approach delivered a basal thermal regime of temperatures or melting rates for an assumed basal geothermal heat flux. When Philippe Huybrechts and others incorporated time, largely unknownpast surface conditions had a major effect on present basal thermal conditions. This approach produced ice-sheet models with only a slow response to external forcing, whereas the glacial geological record and climate records from ice and ocean cores show that ice sheets can have rapid changes in size and shape independent of external forcing. These top-down models were wholly inadequate for reconstructing former ice sheets at the LGM for CLIMAP in 1981. Ice-sheet areas,elevations, and volumes provided the albedo, surface topography, and sea-surface area as input to climate models. A bottom-up model based on dated glacial geology was developed to provide the areal extent and basal thermal regime of ice sheets at the LGM. Basal thermal conditions determined ice-bed coupling and therefore the elevation of ice sheets. High convex ice surfaces for slow sheet flow lower about 20 percent when a frozen bed becomes thawed. As further basal melting drowns bedrock bumps that "pin" basal ice, the ice surface becomes concave in fast stream flow that ends as low floating ice shelves at marine ice margins. A revolution in modeling interactions between glaciation, climate, and sea level is driven by new Greenland and Antarctic data from Earth-orbiting satellites, airborne and surface traverses, and deep drilling. We anticipate continuous data acquisition of surface albedo, accumulation/ablation rates, elevations, velocities, and temperatures over a whole ice sheet, mapping basal thermal conditions by radar, seismic, and magnetic profiling, and direct measurement of basal conditions by deep drilling and coring into the ice and the bed. These data allow calculating the geothermal heat flux and mapping flow of basal meltwater from geothermal sources to sinks at the termini of ice streams, which discharge up to 90 percent of the ice. James Fastook has a preliminary solution of the full momentum equation needed to model ice streams. Douglas MacAyeal has pioneered modeling catastrophic ice-shelf disintegration that releases "armadas" of icebergs into the world ocean, to extract heat from ocean surface water and thereby reduce the critical ocean-to-atmosphere heat exchange that drives global climate. Ice sheets are the only component of Earth's climate machine that can destroy itself-- swiftly--and thereby radically and rapidly alter global climate and sea level.

Predicting pulsar scintillation from refractive plasma sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simard, Dana; Pen, Ue-Li

2018-07-01

The dynamic and secondary spectra of many pulsars show evidence for long-lived, aligned images of the pulsar that are stationary on a thin scattering sheet. One explanation for this phenomenon considers the effects of wave crests along sheets in the ionized interstellar medium, such as those due to Alfvén waves propagating along current sheets. If these sheets are closely aligned to our line of sight to the pulsar, high bending angles arise at the wave crests and a selection effect causes alignment of images produced at different crests, similar to grazing reflection off of a lake. Using geometric optics, we develop a simple parametrized model of these corrugated sheets that can be constrained with a single observation and that makes observable predictions for variations in the scintillation of the pulsar over time and frequency. This model reveals qualitative differences between lensing from overdense and underdense corrugated sheets: only if the sheet is overdense compared to the surrounding interstellar medium can the lensed images be brighter than the line-of-sight image to the pulsar, and the faint lensed images are closer to the pulsar at higher frequencies if the sheet is underdense, but at lower frequencies if the sheet is overdense.

Predicting Pulsar Scintillation from Refractive Plasma Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simard, Dana; Pen, Ue-Li

2018-05-01

The dynamic and secondary spectra of many pulsars show evidence for long-lived, aligned images of the pulsar that are stationary on a thin scattering sheet. One explanation for this phenomenon considers the effects of wave crests along sheets in the ionized interstellar medium, such as those due to Alfvén waves propagating along current sheets. If these sheets are closely aligned to our line-of-sight to the pulsar, high bending angles arise at the wave crests and a selection effect causes alignment of images produced at different crests, similar to grazing reflection off of a lake. Using geometric optics, we develop a simple parameterized model of these corrugated sheets that can be constrained with a single observation and that makes observable predictions for variations in the scintillation of the pulsar over time and frequency. This model reveals qualitative differences between lensing from overdense and underdense corrugated sheets: Only if the sheet is overdense compared to the surrounding interstellar medium can the lensed images be brighter than the line-of-sight image to the pulsar, and the faint lensed images are closer to the pulsar at higher frequencies if the sheet is underdense, but at lower frequencies if the sheet is overdense.

Intercomparison of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in stratiform orographic mixed-phase clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhlbauer, A.; Hashino, T.; Xue, L.; Teller, A.; Lohmann, U.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Geresdi, I.; Pan, Z.

2010-09-01

Anthropogenic aerosols serve as a source of both cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) and affect microphysical properties of clouds. Increasing aerosol number concentrations is hypothesized to retard the cloud droplet coalescence and the riming in mixed-phase clouds, thereby decreasing orographic precipitation. This study presents results from a model intercomparison of 2-D simulations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in stratiform orographic mixed-phase clouds. The sensitivity of orographic precipitation to changes in the aerosol number concentrations is analysed and compared for various dynamical and thermodynamical situations. Furthermore, the sensitivities of microphysical processes such as coalescence, aggregation, riming and diffusional growth to changes in the aerosol number concentrations are evaluated and compared. The participating numerical models are the model from the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) with bulk microphysics, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with bin microphysics and the University of Wisconsin modeling system (UWNMS) with a spectral ice habit prediction microphysics scheme. All models are operated on a cloud-resolving scale with 2 km horizontal grid spacing. The results of the model intercomparison suggest that the sensitivity of orographic precipitation to aerosol modifications varies greatly from case to case and from model to model. Neither a precipitation decrease nor a precipitation increase is found robustly in all simulations. Qualitative robust results can only be found for a subset of the simulations but even then quantitative agreement is scarce. Estimates of the aerosol effect on orographic precipitation are found to range from -19% to 0% depending on the simulated case and the model. Similarly, riming is shown to decrease in some cases and models whereas it increases in others, which implies that a decrease in riming with increasing aerosol load is not a robust result. Furthermore, it is found that neither a decrease in cloud droplet coalescence nor a decrease in riming necessarily implies a decrease in precipitation due to compensation effects by other microphysical pathways. The simulations suggest that mixed-phase conditions play an important role in buffering the effect of aerosol perturbations on cloud microphysics and reducing the overall susceptibility of clouds and precipitation to changes in the aerosol number concentrations. As a consequence the aerosol effect on precipitation is suggested to be less pronounced or even inverted in regions with high terrain (e.g., the Alps or Rocky Mountains) or in regions where mixed-phase microphysics is important for the climatology of orographic precipitation.

The use of platelet-rich fibrin combined with periodontal ligament and jaw bone mesenchymal stem cell sheets for periodontal tissue engineering.

PubMed

Wang, Zhong-Shan; Feng, Zhi-Hong; Wu, Guo-Feng; Bai, Shi-Zhu; Dong, Yan; Chen, Fa-Ming; Zhao, Yi-Min

2016-06-21

Periodontal regeneration involves the restoration of at least three unique tissues: cementum, periodontal ligament tissue (PDL) and alveolar bone tissue. Here, we first isolated human PDL stem cells (PDLSCs) and jaw bone mesenchymal stem cells (JBMSCs). These cells were then induced to form cell sheets using an ascorbic acid-rich approach, and the cell sheet properties, including morphology, thickness and gene expression profile, were compared. Platelet-rich fibrin (PRF) derived from human venous blood was then fabricated into bioabsorbable fibrin scaffolds containing various growth factors. Finally, the in vivo potential of a cell-material construct based on PDLSC sheets, PRF scaffolds and JBMSC sheets to form periodontal tissue was assessed in a nude mouse model. In this model, PDLSC sheet/PRF/JBMSC sheet composites were placed in a simulated periodontal space comprising human treated dentin matrix (TDM) and hydroxyapatite (HA)/tricalcium phosphate (TCP) frameworks. Eight weeks after implantation, the PDLSC sheets tended to develop into PDL-like tissues, while the JBMSC sheets tended to produce predominantly bone-like tissues. In addition, the PDLSC sheet/PRF/JBMSC sheet composites generated periodontal tissue-like structures containing PDL- and bone-like tissues. Further improvements in this cell transplantation design may have the potential to provide an effective approach for future periodontal tissue regeneration.

Incorporation of ice sheet models into an Earth system model: Focus on methodology of coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Nevecherja, Artiom

2018-03-01

Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we apply two different approaches for the incorporation of ice sheets into an ESM. Coupling of the Antarctic ice sheet model (AISM) to the AOGCM is accomplished via using procedures of resampling, interpolation and assigning to the AISM grid points annually averaged meanings of air surface temperature and precipitation fields generated by the AOGCM. Surface melting, which takes place mainly on the margins of the Antarctic peninsula and on ice shelves fringing the continent, is currently ignored. AISM returns anomalies of surface topography back to the AOGCM. To couple the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM) to the AOGCM, we use a simple buffer energy- and water-balance model (EWBM-G) to account for orographically-driven precipitation and other sub-grid AOGCM-generated quantities. The output of the EWBM-G consists of surface mass balance and air surface temperature to force the GrISM, and freshwater run-off to force thermohaline circulation in the oceanic block of the AOGCM. Because of a rather complex coupling procedure of GrIS compared to AIS, the paper mostly focuses on Greenland.

International intercomparison of measuring instruments for radon/thoron gas and radon short-lived daughter products in the NRPI Prague.

PubMed

Jílek, K; Hýža, M; Kotík, L; Thomas, J; Tomášek, L

2014-07-01

During the 7th European Conference on Protection Against Radon at Home and at Work held in the autumn of 2013 in Prague, the second intercomparison of measuring instruments for radon and its short-lived decay products and the first intercomparison of radon/thoron gas discriminative passive detectors in mix field of radon/thoron were organised by and held at the Natural Radiation Division of the National Radiation Protection Institute (NRPI) in Prague. In total, 14 laboratories from 11 different countries took part in the 2013 NRPI intercomparison. They submitted both continuous monitors for the measurement of radon gas and equivalent equilibrium radon concentration in a big NRPI chamber (48 m3) and sets of passive detectors including radon/thoron discriminative for the measurement of radon gas in the big chamber and thoron gas in a small thoron chamber (150 dm3). © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An intercomparison of carbon monoxide, nitric oxide, and hydroxyl measurement techniques - Overview of results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoell, J. M.; Gregory, G. L.; Carroll, M. A.; Mcfarland, M.; Ridley, B. A.; Davis, D. D.; Bradshaw, J.; Rodgers, M. O.; Torres, A. L.; Condon, E. P.

1984-01-01

Results from an intercomparison of methods to measure carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), and the hydroxyl radical (OH) are discussed. The intercomparison was conducted at Wallops Island, Virginia, in July 1983 and included a laser differential absorption and three grab sample/gas chromatograph methods for CO, a laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) and two chemiluminescence methods for NO, and two LIF methods and a radiocarbon tracer method for OH. The intercomparison was conducted as a field measurement program involving ambient measurements of CO (150-300 ppbv) and NO (10-180 pptv) from a common manifold with controlled injection of CO in incremental steps from 20 to 500 ppbv and NO in steps from 10 to 220 pptv. Only ambient measurements of OH were made. The agreement between the techniques was on the order of 14 percent for CO and 17 percent for NO. Hardware difficulties during the OH tests resulted in a data base with insufficient data and uncertanties too large to permit a meaningful intercomposition.

Operational overview of the NASA GTE/CITE 3 airborne instrument intercomparisons for sulfur dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, carbonyl sulfide, dimethyl sulfide, and carbon disulfide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoell, James M., Jr.; Davis, Douglas D.; Gregory, Gerald L.; Mcneal, Robert J.; Bendura, Richard J.; Drewry, Joseph W.; Barrick, John D.; Kirchhoff, Volker W. J. H.; Motta, Adauto G.; Navarro, Roger L.

1993-01-01

This paper reports the overall experimental design and gives a brief overview of results from the third airborne Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (CITE 3) mission conducted as part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Global Tropospheric Experiment. The primary objective of CITE 3 was to evaluate the capability of instrumentation for airborne measurements of ambient concentrations of SO2, H2S, CS, dimethyl sulfide, and carbonyl sulfide. Ancillary measurements augmented the intercomparison data in order to address the secondary objective of CITE 3 which was to address specific issues related to the budget and photochemistry of tropospheric sulfur species. The CITE 3 mission was conducted on NASA's Wallops Flight Center Electra aircraft and included a ground-based intercomparison of sulfur standards and intercomparison/sulfur science flights conducted from the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia, followed by flights from Natal, Brazil. Including the transit flights, CITE 3 included 16 flights encompassing approximately 96 flight hours.

A soil sampling intercomparison exercise for the ALMERA network.

PubMed

Belli, Maria; de Zorzi, Paolo; Sansone, Umberto; Shakhashiro, Abduhlghani; Gondin da Fonseca, Adelaide; Trinkl, Alexander; Benesch, Thomas

2009-11-01

Soil sampling and analysis for radionuclides after an accidental or routine release is a key factor for the dose calculation to members of the public, and for the establishment of possible countermeasures. The IAEA organized for selected laboratories of the ALMERA (Analytical Laboratories for the Measurement of Environmental Radioactivity) network a Soil Sampling Intercomparison Exercise (IAEA/SIE/01) with the objective of comparing soil sampling procedures used by different laboratories. The ALMERA network is a world-wide network of analytical laboratories located in IAEA member states capable of providing reliable and timely analysis of environmental samples in the event of an accidental or intentional release of radioactivity. Ten ALMERA laboratories were selected to participate in the sampling exercise. The soil sampling intercomparison exercise took place in November 2005 in an agricultural area qualified as a "reference site", aimed at assessing the uncertainties associated with soil sampling in agricultural, semi-natural, urban and contaminated environments and suitable for performing sampling intercomparison. In this paper, the laboratories sampling performance were evaluated.

A Historical Forcing Ice Sheet Model Validation Framework for Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, S. F.; Hoffman, M. J.; Howat, I. M.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Kalashnikova, I.; Neumann, T.; Nowicki, S.; Perego, M.; Salinger, A.

2014-12-01

We propose an ice sheet model testing and validation framework for Greenland for the years 2000 to the present. Following Perego et al. (2014), we start with a realistic ice sheet initial condition that is in quasi-equilibrium with climate forcing from the late 1990's. This initial condition is integrated forward in time while simultaneously applying (1) surface mass balance forcing (van Angelen et al., 2013) and (2) outlet glacier flux anomalies, defined using a new dataset of Greenland outlet glacier flux for the past decade (Enderlin et al., 2014). Modeled rates of mass and elevation change are compared directly to remote sensing observations obtained from GRACE and ICESat. Here, we present a detailed description of the proposed validation framework including the ice sheet model and model forcing approach, the model-to-observation comparison process, and initial results comparing model output and observations for the time period 2000-2013.

Representing grounding line migration in synchronous coupling between a marine ice sheet model and a z-coordinate ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D. N.; Snow, K.; Holland, P.; Jordan, J. R.; Campin, J.-M.; Heimbach, P.; Arthern, R.; Jenkins, A.

2018-05-01

Synchronous coupling is developed between an ice sheet model and a z-coordinate ocean model (the MITgcm). A previously-developed scheme to allow continuous vertical movement of the ice-ocean interface of a floating ice shelf ("vertical coupling") is built upon to allow continuous movement of the grounding line, or point of floatation of the ice sheet ("horizontal coupling"). Horizontal coupling is implemented through the maintenance of a thin layer of ocean ( ∼ 1 m) under grounded ice, which is inflated into the real ocean as the ice ungrounds. This is accomplished through a modification of the ocean model's nonlinear free surface evolution in a manner akin to a hydrological model in the presence of steep bathymetry. The coupled model is applied to a number of idealized geometries and shown to successfully represent ocean-forced marine ice sheet retreat while maintaining a continuous ocean circulation.

Challenges faced by ice sheet projections: lessons from the SeaRISE effort

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowicki, S.

2013-12-01

Projecting the future evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is a problem of enormous societal importance, as ice sheet influence our future sea levels. This crucial issue is however a non trivial task, as demonstrated by the Sea level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort: prescribing simple external forcings to a group of ice sheet models results in a spread in responses. Understanding the source of the diversity in the model results is therefore crucial in order to reduce the uncertainty in the projection. Just as in any future climate simulation, the analysis presented here demonstrates that the model spread in the SeaRISE effort is due to a number of factors. First is the problem of obtaining an initial configuration for the projection. The two commonly used methods, interglacial spin-up or data assimilation, have both advantages and drawbacks, and will affect the determination of fields that cannot be measured (such as basal slipperiness). Second is the uncertainty in actual observations, which includes but is not limited to surface mass balance, basal topography, ice thickness, and surface velocities. An additional issue with these observations is that they can be transient quantities which are not measured at the same time, but ice sheet models require them to be simultaneous. Third is the uncertainty in the models' physics and discretization, which is limited by our understanding (or lack of understanding) of crucial processes that often occur at subgrid scale relative to the resolution used by continental ice sheet models, and thus require parameterization. Grounding line migration and sliding laws are such an example. Fourth is the determination of the future forcing scenarios and their implementation as the external forcing. Unfortunately, as demonstrated in this analysis, all ice sheet models face these limitations to some degree, so that it is extremely difficult to identify a set of models and projections that should be trusted in preference to others. One model might be more suitable for assessing the impact of a warmer atmosphere because of its initialization procedure, but its deficiencies in capturing grounding line migration, for example, might make its projections for oceanic forcing unreliable. More work is thus required to evaluate individual ice sheet models' skills in projection, but this crucial and challenging task is left for future studies.

Exposure age and ice-sheet model constraints on Pliocene East Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.

PubMed

Yamane, Masako; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Obrochta, Stephen; Saito, Fuyuki; Moriwaki, Kiichi; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki

2015-04-24

The Late Pliocene epoch is a potential analogue for future climate in a warming world. Here we reconstruct Plio-Pleistocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) variability using cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages and model simulations to better understand ice sheet behaviour under such warm conditions. New and previously published exposure ages indicate interior-thickening during the Pliocene. An ice sheet model with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions also results in interior thickening and suggests that both the Wilkes Subglacial and Aurora Basins largely melted, offsetting increased ice volume. Considering contributions from West Antarctica and Greenland, this is consistent with the most recent IPCC AR5 estimate, which indicates that the Pliocene sea level likely did not exceed +20 m on Milankovitch timescales. The inception of colder climate since ∼3 Myr has increased the sea ice cover and inhibited active moisture transport to Antarctica, resulting in reduced ice sheet thickness, at least in coastal areas.

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff.

PubMed

Van Tricht, K; Lhermitte, S; Lenaerts, J T M; Gorodetskaya, I V; L'Ecuyer, T S; Noël, B; van den Broeke, M R; Turner, D D; van Lipzig, N P M

2016-01-12

The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m(-2). Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise.

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff

PubMed Central

Van Tricht, K.; Lhermitte, S.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Gorodetskaya, I. V.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Noël, B.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Turner, D. D.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.

2016-01-01

The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m−2. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise. PMID:26756470

Friction and lubrication modelling in sheet metal forming: Influence of lubrication amount, tool roughness and sheet coating on product quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hol, J.; Wiebenga, J. H.; Carleer, B.

2017-09-01

In the stamping of automotive parts, friction and lubrication play a key role in achieving high quality products. In the development process of new automotive parts, it is therefore crucial to accurately account for these effects in sheet metal forming simulations. This paper presents a selection of results considering friction and lubrication modelling in sheet metal forming simulations of a front fender product. For varying lubrication conditions, the front fender can either show wrinkling or fractures. The front fender is modelled using different lubrication amounts, tool roughness’s and sheet coatings to show the strong influence of friction on both part quality and the overall production stability. For this purpose, the TriboForm software is used in combination with the AutoForm software. The results demonstrate that the TriboForm software enables the simulation of friction behaviour for varying lubrication conditions, i.e. resulting in a generally applicable approach for friction characterization under industrial sheet metal forming process conditions.

Two-dimensional potential double layers and discrete auroras

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kan, J. R.; Lee, L. C.; Akasofu, S.-I.

1979-01-01

This paper is concerned with the formation of the acceleration region for electrons which produce the visible auroral arc and with the formation of the inverted V precipitation region. The former is embedded in the latter, and both are associated with field-aligned current sheets carried by plasma sheet electrons. It is shown that an electron current sheet driven from the plasma sheet into the ionosphere leads to the formation of a two-dimensional potential double layer. For a current sheet of a thickness less than the proton gyrodiameter solutions are obtained in which the field-aligned potential drop is distributed over a length much greater than the Debye length. For a current sheet of a thickness much greater than the proton gyrodiameter solutions are obtained in which the potential drop is confined to a distance on the order of the Debye length. The electric field in the two-dimensional double-layer model is the zeroth-order field inherent to the current sheet configuration, in contrast to those models in which the electric field is attributed to the first-order field due to current instabilities or turbulences. The maximum potential in the two-dimensional double-layer models is on the order of the thermal energy of plasma sheet protons, which ranges from 1 to 10 keV.

Worldwide multi-model intercomparison of clear-sky solar irradiance predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Cebecauer, Tomas

2017-06-01

Accurate modeling of solar radiation in the absence of clouds is highly important because solar power production peaks during cloud-free situations. The conventional validation approach of clear-sky solar radiation models relies on the comparison between model predictions and ground observations. Therefore, this approach is limited to locations with availability of high-quality ground observations, which are scarce worldwide. As a consequence, many areas of in-terest for, e.g., solar energy development, still remain sub-validated. Here, a worldwide inter-comparison of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) calculated by a number of appropriate clear-sky solar ra-diation models is proposed, without direct intervention of any weather or solar radiation ground-based observations. The model inputs are all gathered from atmospheric reanalyses covering the globe. The model predictions are compared to each other and only their relative disagreements are quantified. The largest differences between model predictions are found over central and northern Africa, the Middle East, and all over Asia. This coincides with areas of high aerosol optical depth and highly varying aerosol distribution size. Overall, the differences in modeled DNI are found about twice larger than for GHI. It is argued that the prevailing weather regimes (most importantly, aerosol conditions) over regions exhibiting substantial divergences are not adequately parameterized by all models. Further validation and scrutiny using conventional methods based on ground observations should be pursued in priority over those specific regions to correctly evaluate the performance of clear-sky models, and select those that can be recommended for solar concentrating applications in particular.

Refined Use of Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Snapshots to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions in the GOCART Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petrenko, Mariya; Kahn, Ralph; Chin, Mian; Limbacher, James

2017-01-01

Simulations of biomass burning (BB) emissions in global chemistry and aerosol transport models depend on external inventories, which provide location and strength of burning aerosol sources. Our previous work (Petrenko et al., 2012) shows that satellite snapshots of aerosol optical depth (AOD) near the emitted smoke plume can be used to constrain model-simulated AOD, and effectively, the assumed source strength. We now refine the satellite-snapshot method and investigate applying simple multiplicative emission correction factors for the widely used Global Fire Emission Database version 3 (GFEDv3) emission inventory can achieve regional-scale consistency between MODIS AOD snapshots and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The model and satellite AOD are compared over a set of more than 900 BB cases observed by the MODIS instrument during the 2004, and 2006-2008 biomass burning seasons. The AOD comparison presented here shows that regional discrepancies between the model and satellite are diverse around the globe yet quite consistent within most ecosystems. Additional analysis of including small fire emission correction shows the complimentary nature of correcting for source strength and adding missing sources, and also indicates that in some regions other factors may be significant in explaining model-satellite discrepancies. This work sets the stage for a larger intercomparison within the Aerosol Inter-comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) multi-model biomass burning experiment. We discuss here some of the other possible factors affecting the remaining discrepancies between model simulations and observations, but await comparisons with other AeroCom models to draw further conclusions.

Assessing doses to terrestrial wildlife at a radioactive waste disposal site: inter-comparison of modelling approaches.

PubMed

Johansen, M P; Barnett, C L; Beresford, N A; Brown, J E; Černe, M; Howard, B J; Kamboj, S; Keum, D-K; Smodiš, B; Twining, J R; Vandenhove, H; Vives i Batlle, J; Wood, M D; Yu, C

2012-06-15

Radiological doses to terrestrial wildlife were examined in this model inter-comparison study that emphasised factors causing variability in dose estimation. The study participants used varying modelling approaches and information sources to estimate dose rates and tissue concentrations for a range of biota types exposed to soil contamination at a shallow radionuclide waste burial site in Australia. Results indicated that the dominant factor causing variation in dose rate estimates (up to three orders of magnitude on mean total dose rates) was the soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides that included variation in transfer parameter values as well as transfer calculation methods. Additional variation was associated with other modelling factors including: how participants conceptualised and modelled the exposure configurations (two orders of magnitude); which progeny to include with the parent radionuclide (typically less than one order of magnitude); and dose calculation parameters, including radiation weighting factors and dose conversion coefficients (typically less than one order of magnitude). Probabilistic approaches to model parameterisation were used to encompass and describe variable model parameters and outcomes. The study confirms the need for continued evaluation of the underlying mechanisms governing soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides to improve estimation of dose rates to terrestrial wildlife. The exposure pathways and configurations available in most current codes are limited when considering instances where organisms access subsurface contamination through rooting, burrowing, or using different localised waste areas as part of their habitual routines. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ENSO-Related Precipitation and Its Statistical Relationship with the Walker Circulation Trend in CMIP5 AMIP Models

DOE PAGES

Yim, Bo; Yeh, Sang -Wook; Sohn, Byung -Ju

2016-01-29

Observational evidence shows that the Walker circulation (WC) in the tropical Pacific has strengthened in recent decades. In this study, we examine the WC trend for 1979–2005 and its relationship with the precipitation associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using the sea surface temperature (SST)-constrained Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. All of the 29 models show a strengthening of the WC trend in response to an increase in the SST zonal gradient along the equator. Despite the same SST-constrained AMIP simulations, however, a large diversity ismore » found among the CMIP5 climate models in the magnitude of the WC trend. The relationship between the WC trend and precipitation anomalies (PRCPAs) associated with ENSO (ENSO-related PRCPAs) shows that the longitudinal position of the ENSO-related PRCPAs in the western tropical Pacific is closely related to the magnitude of the WC trend. Specifically, it is found that the strengthening of the WC trend is large (small) in the CMIP5 AMIP simulations in which the ENSO-related PRCPAs are located relatively westward (eastward) in the western tropical Pacific. Furthermore, the zonal shift of the ENSO-related precipitation in the western tropical Pacific, which is associated with the climatological mean precipitation in the tropical Pacific, could play an important role in modifying the WC trend in the CMIP5 climate models.« less

‘Survival’: a simulation toolkit introducing a modular approach for radiobiological evaluations in ion beam therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manganaro, L.; Russo, G.; Bourhaleb, F.; Fausti, F.; Giordanengo, S.; Monaco, V.; Sacchi, R.; Vignati, A.; Cirio, R.; Attili, A.

2018-04-01

One major rationale for the application of heavy ion beams in tumour therapy is their increased relative biological effectiveness (RBE). The complex dependencies of the RBE on dose, biological endpoint, position in the field etc require the use of biophysical models in treatment planning and clinical analysis. This study aims to introduce a new software, named ‘Survival’, to facilitate the radiobiological computations needed in ion therapy. The simulation toolkit was written in C++ and it was developed with a modular architecture in order to easily incorporate different radiobiological models. The following models were successfully implemented: the local effect model (LEM, version I, II and III) and variants of the microdosimetric-kinetic model (MKM). Different numerical evaluation approaches were also implemented: Monte Carlo (MC) numerical methods and a set of faster analytical approximations. Among the possible applications, the toolkit was used to reproduce the RBE versus LET for different ions (proton, He, C, O, Ne) and different cell lines (CHO, HSG). Intercomparison between different models (LEM and MKM) and computational approaches (MC and fast approximations) were performed. The developed software could represent an important tool for the evaluation of the biological effectiveness of charged particles in ion beam therapy, in particular when coupled with treatment simulations. Its modular architecture facilitates benchmarking and inter-comparison between different models and evaluation approaches. The code is open source (GPL2 license) and available at https://github.com/batuff/Survival.

Intercomparison of terrestrial carbon fluxes and carbon use efficiency simulated by CMIP5 Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Su-Jong; Im, Jungho; Cha, Dong Hyun; Lee, Sanggyun

2017-12-01

This study compares historical simulations of the terrestrial carbon cycle produced by 10 Earth System Models (ESMs) that participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Using MODIS satellite estimates, this study validates the simulation of gross primary production (GPP), net primary production (NPP), and carbon use efficiency (CUE), which depend on plant function types (PFTs). The models show noticeable deficiencies compared to the MODIS data in the simulation of the spatial patterns of GPP and NPP and large differences among the simulations, although the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean provides a realistic global mean value and spatial distributions. The larger model spreads in GPP and NPP compared to those of surface temperature and precipitation suggest that the differences among simulations in terms of the terrestrial carbon cycle are largely due to uncertainties in the parameterization of terrestrial carbon fluxes by vegetation. The models also exhibit large spatial differences in their simulated CUE values and at locations where the dominant PFT changes, primarily due to differences in the parameterizations. While the MME-simulated CUE values show a strong dependence on surface temperatures, the observed CUE values from MODIS show greater complexity, as well as non-linear sensitivity. This leads to the overall underestimation of CUE using most of the PFTs incorporated into current ESMs. The results of this comparison suggest that more careful and extensive validation is needed to improve the terrestrial carbon cycle in terms of ecosystem-level processes.

Intercomparison of Martian Lower Atmosphere Simulated Using Different Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Natarajan, Murali; Fairlie, T. Duncan; Dwyer Cianciolo, Alicia; Smith, Michael D.

2015-01-01

We use the mesoscale modeling capability of Mars Weather Research and Forecasting (MarsWRF) model to study the sensitivity of the simulated Martian lower atmosphere to differences in the parameterization of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Characterization of the Martian atmosphere and realistic representation of processes such as mixing of tracers like dust depend on how well the model reproduces the evolution of the PBL structure. MarsWRF is based on the NCAR WRF model and it retains some of the PBL schemes available in the earth version. Published studies have examined the performance of different PBL schemes in NCAR WRF with the help of observations. Currently such assessments are not feasible for Martian atmospheric models due to lack of observations. It is of interest though to study the sensitivity of the model to PBL parameterization. Typically, for standard Martian atmospheric simulations, we have used the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) PBL scheme, which considers a correction term to the vertical gradients to incorporate nonlocal effects. For this study, we have also used two other parameterizations, a non-local closure scheme called Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme and a turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme called Mellor- Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) PBL scheme. We will present intercomparisons of the near surface temperature profiles, boundary layer heights, and wind obtained from the different simulations. We plan to use available temperature observations from Mini TES instrument onboard the rovers Spirit and Opportunity in evaluating the model results.

Radon intercomparisons at EML, January 1983 and February 1984

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisenne, I.M.; George, A.C.; Keller, H.W.

1985-02-01

This report summarizes the results of two radon measurement intercomparison exercises held at the Environmental Measurements Laboratory (EML) in January 1983 and February 1984. Nineteen organizations, including five US federal facilities, one national laboratory, two state laboratories, six universities, three private sector laboratories and two non-US facilities participated in these exercises. The results indicate good agreement among the participants at /sup 222/Rn concentration levels of 50 and 80 pCi.L/sup -1/. Improvements in the EML calibration facilities, and the participation of two US laboratories in a Nuclear Energy Agency intercomparison program are also discussed. 8 references, 6 figures, 8 tables.

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperber, Kenneth R.; Participating AMIP Modelling Groups

1999-05-01

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Participating AMIP Modelling Groups,; Sperber, Kenneth R.

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Diagnostic Studies With GLA Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salstein, David A.

1997-01-01

Assessments of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System (GEOS-1 DAS) regarding heating rates, energetics and angular momentum quantities were made. These diagnostics can be viewed as measures of climate variability. Comparisons with the NOAA/NCEP reanalysis system of momentum and energetics diagnostics are included. Water vapor and angular momentum are diagnosed in many models, including those of NASA, as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. Relevant preprints are included herein.

Galaxy Morphology From the UV to the FIR: An Intercomparison of Recent Observations From Space With New Radiative Transfer Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

(CIT), Barry Madore

1995-01-01

We will present the latest multiwavelength observations of spiral galaxies made from space and from the ground covering the electromagnetic spectrum from the far ultraviolet (ASTRO-2 UIT observations) through the optical, and out to the far infrared (IRAS). Comparisons with recent theoretical models for the radiative transfer of stellar light through a three-dimensional dusty galaxy will be presented.

An interactive web application for visualizing climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-01-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

An Interactive Web Application for Visualizing Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-05-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

Reconstructions of the Weichselian ice sheet, a comparative study of a thermo-mechanical approach to GIA driven models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Peter; Lund, Björn; Näslund, Jens-Ove; Fastook, James

2014-05-01

Observations of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) have been used both to study the mechanical properties of the Earth and to invert for Northern Hemisphere palaeo-ice-sheets. This is typically done by solving the sea-level equation using simplified scaling laws to control ice-sheet thickness. However, past ice-sheets can also be reconstructed based on thermo-mechanical modelling driven by palaeo-climate data, invoking simple analytical models to account for the Earth's response. Commonly, both approaches use dated geological markers to constrain the ice-sheet margin location. Irrespective of the approach, the resulting ice-sheet reconstruction depends on the earth response, although the interdependence between the ice model and the earth model differs and therefore the two types of reconstructions could provide complementary information on Earth properties. We compare a thermo-mechanical reconstruction of the Weichselian ice-sheet using the UMISM model (Näslund, 2010) to two GIA driven reconstructions, ANU (Lambeck et al., 2010) and ICE-5G (Peltier & Fairbanks, 2006), commonly used in GIA modelling. We evaluate the three reconstructions both in terms of ice-sheet configurations and predicted Fennoscandian surface deformation ICE-5G comprise the largest reconstructed ice-sheet whereas ANU and UMISM are more similar in volume and areal extent. Significant differences still exists between ANU and UMISM, especially during the final deglaciation phase. Prior to the final retreat of the ice-sheet, ICE-5G is displays a massive and more or less constant ice-sheet configuration, while both ANU and UMISM fluctuates with at times almost ice-free conditions, such as during MIS3. This results in ICE-5G being close to isostatic equilibrium at LGM, whereas ANU and UMISM are not. Hence, the pre-LGM evolution of the Weichselian ice-sheet needs to be considered in GIA studies. For example, perturbing the ANU or UMISM reconstructions we find that changes more recent than 36 kyr BP may change the predicted uplift velocities by more than 0.1 mm/yr, while changes more recent than 55 kyr BP may change the predicted uplift 10 kyr ago by more than 5 m. Despite their differences we find that all three reconstructions can equally well fit observations of the present day uplift in Fennoscandia, as well as the observed sea-level curve along the Ångerman river, Sweden, albeit with different optimal earth models. However, only for ANU can a single optimal earth model be determined as a bifurcation in the optimal viscosity arises from the generally faster present day rebound rates in ICE-5G and UMISM, resulting in a range of well-fitting earth models for the latter reconstructions. Studying models with a reasonable fit to observed present day uplift velocities we find general trends of over- and under-prediction, indicating that all three ice-sheet reconstructions need improvement. In general, all three reconstructions tend to over-predict the uplift rates in southwestern Fennoscandia, whereas over Finland ICE-5G generally over-predicts and ANU generally under-predicts the uplift rates. UMISM tend to under-predict the velocities over central to northern Sweden and similar trends can also be seen in ANU and ICE-5G.

Inconsistent Strategies to Spin up Models in CMIP5: Implications for Ocean Biogeochemical Model Performance Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seferian, Roland; Gehlen, Marion; Bopp, Laurent; Resplandy, Laure; Orr, James C.; Marti, Olivier; Dunne, John P.; Christian, James R.; Doney, Scott C.; Ilyina, Tatiana;

Uncertainty quantification of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulthuis, Kevin; Arnst, Maarten; Pattyn, Frank; Favier, Lionel

2017-04-01

Uncertainties in sea-level rise projections are mostly due to uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet predictions (IPCC AR5 report, 2013), because key parameters related to the current state of the Antarctic ice sheet (e.g. sub-ice-shelf melting) and future climate forcing are poorly constrained. Here, we propose to improve the predictions of Antarctic ice-sheet behaviour using new uncertainty quantification methods. As opposed to ensemble modelling (Bindschadler et al., 2013) which provides a rather limited view on input and output dispersion, new stochastic methods (Le Maître and Knio, 2010) can provide deeper insight into the impact of uncertainties on complex system behaviour. Such stochastic methods usually begin with deducing a probabilistic description of input parameter uncertainties from the available data. Then, the impact of these input parameter uncertainties on output quantities is assessed by estimating the probability distribution of the outputs by means of uncertainty propagation methods such as Monte Carlo methods or stochastic expansion methods. The use of such uncertainty propagation methods in glaciology may be computationally costly because of the high computational complexity of ice-sheet models. This challenge emphasises the importance of developing reliable and computationally efficient ice-sheet models such as the f.ETISh ice-sheet model (Pattyn, 2015), a new fast thermomechanical coupled ice sheet/ice shelf model capable of handling complex and critical processes such as the marine ice-sheet instability mechanism. Here, we apply these methods to investigate the role of uncertainties in sub-ice-shelf melting, calving rates and climate projections in assessing Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise for the next centuries using the f.ETISh model. We detail the methods and show results that provide nominal values and uncertainty bounds for future sea-level rise as a reflection of the impact of the input parameter uncertainties under consideration, as well as a ranking of the input parameter uncertainties in the order of the significance of their contribution to uncertainty in future sea-level rise. In addition, we discuss how limitations posed by the available information (poorly constrained data) pose challenges that motivate our current research.

PNNL Results from 2010 CALIBAN Criticality Accident Dosimeter Intercomparison Exercise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hill, Robin L.; Conrady, Matthew M.

2011-10-28

This document reports the results of the Hanford personnel nuclear accident dosimeter (PNAD) and fixed nuclear accident dosimeter (FNAD) during a criticality accident dosimeter intercomparison exercise at the CEA Valduc Center on September 20-23, 2010. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) participated in a criticality accident dosimeter intercomparison exercise at the Commissariat a Energie Atomique (CEA) Valduc Center near Dijon, France on September 20-23, 2010. The intercomparison exercise was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Nuclear Criticality Safety Program, with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory as the lead Laboratory. PNNL was one of six invited DOE Laboratory participants. The other participatingmore » Laboratories were: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Savannah River Site (SRS), the Y-12 National Security Complex at Oak Ridge, and Sandia National Laboratory (SNL). The goals of PNNL's participation in the intercomparison exercise were to test and validate the procedures and algorithm currently used for the Hanford personnel nuclear accident dosimeters (PNADs) on the metallic reactor, CALIBAN, to test exposures to PNADs from the side and from behind a phantom, and to test PNADs that were taken from a historical batch of Hanford PNADs that had varying degrees of degradation of the bare indium foil. Similar testing of the PNADs was done on the Valduc SILENE test reactor in 2009 (Hill and Conrady, 2010). The CALIBAN results are reported here.« less

Constraining the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes using satellite observations

DOE PAGES

Terai, C. R.; Klein, S. A.; Zelinka, M. D.

2016-08-26

The increase in cloud optical depth with warming at middle and high latitudes is a robust cloud feedback response found across all climate models. This study builds on results that suggest the optical depth response to temperature is timescale invariant for low-level clouds. The timescale invariance allows one to use satellite observations to constrain the models' optical depth feedbacks. Three passive-sensor satellite retrievals are compared against simulations from eight models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This study confirms that the low-cloud optical depth response is timescale invariant in the AMIPmore » simulations, generally at latitudes higher than 40°. Compared to satellite estimates, most models overestimate the increase in optical depth with warming at the monthly and interannual timescales. Many models also do not capture the increase in optical depth with estimated inversion strength that is found in all three satellite observations and in previous studies. The discrepancy between models and satellites exists in both hemispheres and in most months of the year. A simple replacement of the models' optical depth sensitivities with the satellites' sensitivities reduces the negative shortwave cloud feedback by at least 50% in the 40°–70°S latitude band and by at least 65% in the 40°–70°N latitude band. Furthermore, based on this analysis of satellite observations, we conclude that the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes is likely too negative in climate models.« less

The Software Architecture of Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, K. A.; Easterbrook, S. M.

2011-12-01

It has become common to compare and contrast the output of multiple global climate models (GCMs), such as in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). However, intercomparisons of the software architecture of GCMs are almost nonexistent. In this qualitative study of seven GCMs from Canada, the United States, and Europe, we attempt to fill this gap in research. We describe the various representations of the climate system as computer programs, and account for architectural differences between models. Most GCMs now practice component-based software engineering, where Earth system components (such as the atmosphere or land surface) are present as highly encapsulated sub-models. This architecture facilitates a mix-and-match approach to climate modelling that allows for convenient sharing of model components between institutions, but it also leads to difficulty when choosing where to draw the lines between systems that are not encapsulated in the real world, such as sea ice. We also examine different styles of couplers in GCMs, which manage interaction and data flow between components. Finally, we pay particular attention to the varying levels of complexity in GCMs, both between and within models. Many GCMs have some components that are significantly more complex than others, a phenomenon which can be explained by the respective institution's research goals as well as the origin of the model components. In conclusion, although some features of software architecture have been adopted by every GCM we examined, other features show a wide range of different design choices and strategies. These architectural differences may provide new insights into variability and spread between models.

Select strengths and biases of models in representing the Arctic winter boundary layer over sea ice: the Larcform 1 single column model intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pithan, Felix; Ackerman, Andrew; Angevine, Wayne M.; Hartung, Kerstin; Ickes, Luisa; Kelley, Maxwell; Medeiros, Brian; Sandu, Irina; Steeneveld, Gert-Jan; Sterk, H. A. M.; Svensson, Gunilla; Vaillancourt, Paul A.; Zadra, Ayrton

2016-09-01

Weather and climate models struggle to represent lower tropospheric temperature and moisture profiles and surface fluxes in Arctic winter, partly because they lack or misrepresent physical processes that are specific to high latitudes. Observations have revealed two preferred states of the Arctic winter boundary layer. In the cloudy state, cloud liquid water limits surface radiative cooling, and temperature inversions are weak and elevated. In the radiatively clear state, strong surface radiative cooling leads to the build-up of surface-based temperature inversions. Many large-scale models lack the cloudy state, and some substantially underestimate inversion strength in the clear state. Here, the transformation from a moist to a cold dry air mass is modeled using an idealized Lagrangian perspective. The trajectory includes both boundary layer states, and the single-column experiment is the first Lagrangian Arctic air formation experiment (Larcform 1) organized within GEWEX GASS (Global atmospheric system studies). The intercomparison reproduces the typical biases of large-scale models: some models lack the cloudy state of the boundary layer due to the representation of mixed-phase microphysics or to the interaction between micro- and macrophysics. In some models, high emissivities of ice clouds or the lack of an insulating snow layer prevent the build-up of surface-based inversions in the radiatively clear state. Models substantially disagree on the amount of cloud liquid water in the cloudy state and on turbulent heat fluxes under clear skies. Observations of air mass transformations including both boundary layer states would allow for a tighter constraint of model behavior.

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

PubMed

Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M; Morse, Andrew P; Colón-González, Felipe J; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J

2014-03-04

Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

PubMed Central

Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Morse, Andrew P.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J.

2014-01-01

Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

Constraining the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes using satellite observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terai, C. R.; Klein, S. A.; Zelinka, M. D.

The increase in cloud optical depth with warming at middle and high latitudes is a robust cloud feedback response found across all climate models. This study builds on results that suggest the optical depth response to temperature is timescale invariant for low-level clouds. The timescale invariance allows one to use satellite observations to constrain the models' optical depth feedbacks. Three passive-sensor satellite retrievals are compared against simulations from eight models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This study confirms that the low-cloud optical depth response is timescale invariant in the AMIPmore » simulations, generally at latitudes higher than 40°. Compared to satellite estimates, most models overestimate the increase in optical depth with warming at the monthly and interannual timescales. Many models also do not capture the increase in optical depth with estimated inversion strength that is found in all three satellite observations and in previous studies. The discrepancy between models and satellites exists in both hemispheres and in most months of the year. A simple replacement of the models' optical depth sensitivities with the satellites' sensitivities reduces the negative shortwave cloud feedback by at least 50% in the 40°–70°S latitude band and by at least 65% in the 40°–70°N latitude band. Furthermore, based on this analysis of satellite observations, we conclude that the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes is likely too negative in climate models.« less

Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Sainan; Cornford, Stephen L.; Moore, John C.; Gladstone, Rupert; Zhao, Liyun

2017-11-01

Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM) to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ˜ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor) fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change.

PubMed

Gregory, J M; Huybrechts, P

2006-07-15

Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5+/-0.9K in Greenland and 3.1+/-0.8K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7m.

The impact of dynamic topography on the bedrock elevation and volume of the Pliocene Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austermann, Jacqueline; Pollard, David; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Moucha, Robert; Forte, Alessandro M.; DeConto, Robert M.

2015-04-01

Reconstructions of the Antarctic ice sheet over long timescales (i.e. Myrs) require estimates of bedrock elevation through time. Ice sheet models have accounted, with varying levels of sophistication, for changes in the bedrock elevation due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), but they have neglected other processes that may perturb topography. One notable example is dynamic topography, the deflection of the solid surface of the Earth due to convective flow within the mantle. Numerically predicted changes in dynamic topography have been used to correct paleo shorelines for this departure from eustasy, but the effect of such changes on ice sheet stability is unknown. In this study we use numerical predictions of time-varying dynamic topography to reconstruct bedrock elevation below the Antarctic ice sheet during the mid Pliocene warm period (~3 Ma). Moreover, we couple this reconstruction to a three-dimensional ice sheet model to explore the impact of dynamic topography on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet since the Pliocene. Our modeling indicates significant uplift in the area of the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) and the adjacent Wilkes basin. This predicted uplift, which is at the lower end of geological inferences of uplift of the TAM, implies a lower elevation of the basin in the Pliocene. Relative to simulations that do not include dynamic topography, the lower elevation leads to a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet volume and a more significant retreat of the grounding line in the Wilkes basin, both of which are consistent with offshore sediment core data. We conclude that reconstructions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene warm period should be based on bedrock elevation models that include the impact of both GIA and dynamic topography.

Using palaeoclimate data to improve models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phipps, Steven; King, Matt; Roberts, Jason; White, Duanne

2017-04-01

Ice sheet models are the most descriptive tools available to simulate the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), including its contribution towards changes in global sea level. However, our knowledge of the dynamics of the coupled ice-ocean-lithosphere system is inevitably limited, in part due to a lack of observations. Furthemore, to build computationally efficient models that can be run for multiple millennia, it is necessary to use simplified descriptions of ice dynamics. Ice sheet modelling is therefore an inherently uncertain exercise. The past evolution of the AIS provides an opportunity to constrain the description of physical processes within ice sheet models and, therefore, to constrain our understanding of the role of the AIS in driving changes in global sea level. We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to demonstrate how palaeoclimate data can improve our ability to predict the future evolution of the AIS. A 50-member perturbed-physics ensemble is generated, spanning uncertainty in the parameterisations of three key physical processes within the model: (i) the stress balance within the ice sheet, (ii) basal sliding and (iii) calving of ice shelves. A Latin hypercube approach is used to optimally sample the range of uncertainty in parameter values. This perturbed-physics ensemble is used to simulate the evolution of the AIS from the Last Glacial Maximum ( 21,000 years ago) to present. Palaeoclimate records are then used to determine which ensemble members are the most realistic. This allows us to use data on past climates to directly constrain our understanding of the past contribution of the AIS towards changes in global sea level. Critically, it also allows us to determine which ensemble members are likely to generate the most realistic projections of the future evolution of the AIS.

Exploring changes in vertical ice extent along the margin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in western Dronning Maud Land - initial results of the MAGIC-DML collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifton, N. A.; Newall, J. C.; Fredin, O.; Glasser, N. F.; Fabel, D.; Rogozhina, I.; Bernales, J.; Prange, M.; Sams, S.; Eisen, O.; Hättestrand, C.; Harbor, J.; Stroeven, A. P.

2017-12-01

Numerical ice sheet models constrained by theory and refined by comparisons with observational data are a central component of work to address the interactions between the cryosphere and changing climate, at a wide range of scales. Such models are tested and refined by comparing model predictions of past ice geometries with field-based reconstructions from geological, geomorphological, and ice core data. However, on the East Antarctic Ice sheet, there are few empirical data with which to reconstruct changes in ice sheet geometry in the Dronning Maud Land (DML) region. In addition, there is poor control on the regional climate history of the ice sheet margin, because ice core locations, where detailed reconstructions of climate history exist, are located on high inland domes. This leaves numerical models of regional glaciation history in this near-coastal area largely unconstrained. MAGIC-DML is an ongoing Swedish-US-Norwegian-German-UK collaboration with a focus on improving ice sheet models by combining advances in numerical modeling with filling critical data gaps that exist in our knowledge of the timing and pattern of ice surface changes on the western Dronning Maud Land margin. A combination of geomorphological mapping using remote sensing data, field investigations, cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating, and numerical ice-sheet modeling are being used in an iterative manner to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the glacial history of western Dronning Maud Land. We will present an overview of the project, as well as field observations and preliminary in situ cosmogenic nuclide measurements from the 2016/17 expedition.

High-resolution coupled ice sheet-ocean modeling using the POPSICLES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, E. G.; Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Price, S. F.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

It is expected that a primary driver of future change of the Antarctic ice sheet will be changes in submarine melting driven by incursions of warm ocean water into sub-ice shelf cavities. Correctly modeling this response on a continental scale will require high-resolution modeling of the coupled ice-ocean system. We describe the computational and modeling challenges in our simulations of the full Southern Ocean coupled to a continental-scale Antarctic ice sheet model at unprecedented spatial resolutions (0.1 degree for the ocean model and adaptive mesh refinement down to 500m in the ice sheet model). The POPSICLES model couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), with the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012) using a synchronous offline-coupling scheme. Part of the PISCEES SciDAC project and built on the Chombo framework, BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement to fully resolve dynamically-important regions like grounding lines and employs a momentum balance similar to the vertically-integrated formulation of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009). Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests like MISMIP3D (Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). For the POPSICLES Antarctic-Southern Ocean simulations, ice sheet and ocean models communicate at one-month coupling intervals.

Phenomenological Model of Current Sheet Canting in Pulsed Electromagnetic Accelerators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markusic, Thomas; Choueiri, E. Y.

2003-01-01

The phenomenon of current sheet canting in pulsed electromagnetic accelerators is the departure of the plasma sheet (that carries the current) from a plane that is perpendicular to the electrodes to one that is skewed, or tipped. Review of pulsed electromagnetic accelerator literature reveals that current sheet canting is a ubiquitous phenomenon - occurring in all of the standard accelerator geometries. Developing an understanding of current sheet canting is important because it can detract from the propellant sweeping capabilities of current sheets and, hence, negatively impact the overall efficiency of pulsed electromagnetic accelerators. In the present study, it is postulated that depletion of plasma near the anode, which results from axial density gradient induced diamagnetic drift, occurs during the early stages of the discharge, creating a density gradient normal to the anode, with a characteristic length on the order of the ion skin depth. Rapid penetration of the magnetic field through this region ensues, due to the Hall effect, leading to a canted current front ahead of the initial current conduction channel. In this model, once the current sheet reaches appreciable speeds, entrainment of stationary propellant replenishes plasma in the anode region, inhibiting further Hall-convective transport of the magnetic field; however, the previously established tilted current sheet remains at a fairly constant canting angle for the remainder of the discharge cycle, exerting a transverse J x B force which drives plasma toward the cathode and accumulates it there. This proposed sequence of events has been incorporated into a phenomenological model. The model predicts that canting can be reduced by using low atomic mass propellants with high propellant loading number density; the model results are shown to give qualitative agreement with experimentally measured canting angle mass dependence trends.

Extensive retreat and re-advance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Holocene.

PubMed

Kingslake, J; Scherer, R P; Albrecht, T; Coenen, J; Powell, R D; Reese, R; Stansell, N D; Tulaczyk, S; Wearing, M G; Whitehouse, P L

2018-06-01

To predict the future contributions of the Antarctic ice sheets to sea-level rise, numerical models use reconstructions of past ice-sheet retreat after the Last Glacial Maximum to tune model parameters 1 . Reconstructions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have assumed that it retreated progressively throughout the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years or so) 2-4 . Here we show, however, that over this period the grounding line of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (which marks the point at which it is no longer in contact with the ground and becomes a floating ice shelf) retreated several hundred kilometres inland of today's grounding line, before isostatic rebound caused it to re-advance to its present position. Our evidence includes, first, radiocarbon dating of sediment cores recovered from beneath the ice streams of the Ross Sea sector, indicating widespread Holocene marine exposure; and second, ice-penetrating radar observations of englacial structure in the Weddell Sea sector, indicating ice-shelf grounding. We explore the implications of these findings with an ice-sheet model. Modelled re-advance of the grounding line in the Holocene requires ice-shelf grounding caused by isostatic rebound. Our findings overturn the assumption of progressive retreat of the grounding line during the Holocene in West Antarctica, and corroborate previous suggestions of ice-sheet re-advance 5 . Rebound-driven stabilizing processes were apparently able to halt and reverse climate-initiated ice loss. Whether these processes can reverse present-day ice loss 6 on millennial timescales will depend on bedrock topography and mantle viscosity-parameters that are difficult to measure and to incorporate into ice-sheet models.

Interactive Ice Sheet Flowline Model for High School and College Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stearns, L. A.; Rezvanbehbahani, S.; Shankar, S.

2017-12-01

Teaching about climate and climate change is conceptually challenging. While teaching tools and lesson plans are rapidly evolving to help teachers and students improve their understanding of climate processes, there are very few tools targeting ice sheet and glacier dynamics. We have built an interactive ice sheet model that allows students to explore how Antarctic glaciers respond to different climate perturbations. Interactive models offer advantages that are hard to obtain in traditional classroom settings; users can systematically investigate hypothetical situations, explore the effects of modifying systems, and repeatedly observe how systems interrelate. As a result, this project provides a much-needed bridge between the data and models used by the scientific community and students in high school and college. We target our instructional and assessment activities to three high school and college students with the overall aim of increasing understanding of ice sheet dynamics and the different ways that ice sheets are impacted by climate change, while also improving their fundamental math skills.

Isochronal Ice Sheet Model: a New Approach to Tracer Transport by Explicitly Tracing Accumulation Layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Born, A.; Stocker, T. F.

2014-12-01

The long, high-resolution and largely undisturbed depositional record of polar ice sheets is one of the greatest resources in paleoclimate research. The vertical profile of isotopic and other geochemical tracers provides a full history of depositional and dynamical variations. Numerical simulations of this archive could afford great advances both in the interpretation of these tracers as well as to help improve ice sheet models themselves, as show successful implementations in oceanography and atmospheric dynamics. However, due to the slow advection velocities, tracer modeling in ice sheets is particularly prone to numerical diffusion, thwarting efforts that employ straightforward solutions. Previous attemps to circumvent this issue follow conceptually and computationally extensive approaches that augment traditional Eulerian models of ice flow with a semi-Lagrangian tracer scheme (e.g. Clarke et al., QSR, 2005). Here, we propose a new vertical discretization for ice sheet models that eliminates numerical diffusion entirely. Vertical motion through the model mesh is avoided by mimicking the real-world ice flow as a thinning of underlying layers (see figure). A new layer is added to the surface at equidistant time intervals (isochronally). Therefore, each layer is uniquely identified with an age. Horizontal motion follows the shallow ice approximation using an implicit numerical scheme. Vertical diffusion of heat which is physically desirable is also solved implicitly. A simulation of a two-dimensional section through the Greenland ice sheet will be discussed.

The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, M. A.; Winkelmann, R.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

2011-09-01

We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for bed topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and sub-shelf basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of sliding-dominated flow in stream-like features in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.

FIELD INTERCOMPARISON OF SULFATE DRY DEPOSITION MONITORING AND MEASUREMENT METHODS: PRELIMINARY RESULTS

EPA Science Inventory

The Illinois State Water Survey hosted a three-week field intercomparison of several sulfate dry deposition measurement techniques during September 81. The site was an 80-acre grass field in a rural area 14 km southwest of Champaign, IL. The vegetation consisted of mixed grasses ...

METHODS INTERCOMPARISON OF SAMPLERS FOR EPA'S NATIONAL PM 2.5 CHEMICAL SPECIATION NETWORK

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this sampler intercomparison field study is to determine the performance characteristics for the collection of the chemical components of PM2.5 by the chemical speciation monitors developed for the national PM2.5 network relative to each other, to the Federal R...

Applications of Computer Simulation Methods in Plastic Forming Technologies for Magnesium Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S. H.; Zheng, W. T.; Shang, Y. L.; Wu, X.; Palumbo, G.; Tricarico, L.

2007-05-01

Applications of computer simulation methods in plastic forming of magnesium alloy parts are discussed. As magnesium alloys possess very poor plastic formability at room temperature, various methods have been tried to improve the formability, for example, suitable rolling process and annealing procedures should be found to produce qualified magnesium alloy sheets, which have the reduced anisotropy and improved formability. The blank can be heated to a warm temperature or a hot temperature; a suitable temperature field is designed, tools should be heated or the punch should be cooled; suitable deformation speed should be found to ensure suitable strain rate range. Damage theory considering non-isothermal forming is established. Various modeling methods have been tried to consider above situations. The following situations for modeling the forming process of magnesium alloy sheets and tubes are dealt with: (1) modeling for predicting wrinkling and anisotropy of sheet warm forming; (2) damage theory used for predicting ruptures in sheet warm forming; (3) modeling for optimizing of blank shape and dimensions for sheet warm forming; (4) modeling in non-steady-state creep in hot metal gas forming of AZ31 tubes.

Ice sheets play important role in climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Peter U.; MacAyeal, Douglas R.; Andrews, John T.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

Ice sheets once were viewed as passive elements in the climate system enslaved to orbitally generated variations in solar radiation. Today, modeling results and new geologic records suggest that ice sheets actively participated in late-Pleistocene climate change, amplifying or driving significant variability at millennial as well as orbital timescales. Although large changes in global ice volume were ultimately caused by orbital variations (the Milankovitch hypothesis), once in existence, the former ice sheets behaved dynamically and strongly influenced regional and perhaps even global climate by altering atmospheric and oceanic circulation and temperature.Experiments with General Circulation Models (GCMs) yielded the first inklings of ice sheets' climatic significance. Manabe and Broccoli [1985], for example, found that the topographic and albedo effects of ice sheets alone explain much of the Northern Hemisphere cooling identified in paleoclimatic records of the last glacial maximum (˜21 ka).

Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

2013-12-01

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences from AgMIP Regional Teams, and from the project on Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest, are used to discuss how the RAPs procedures can be further developed and improved, and how RAPs can help engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results.

Summary of the SeaRISE Project's Experiments on Modeled Ice-Sheet Contributions to Future Sea Level: Linearities and Non-linearities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bindschadler, Robert

2013-04-01

The SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) project achieved ice-sheet model ensemble responses to a variety of prescribed changes to surface mass balance, basal sliding and ocean boundary melting. Greenland ice sheet models are more sensitive than Antarctic ice sheet models to likely atmospheric changes in surface mass balance, while Antarctic models are most sensitive to basal melting of its ice shelves. An experiment approximating the IPCC's RCP8.5 scenario produces first century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 7.3 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 17 cm, respectively. By 200 years, these projections increase to 53.2 and 23.4 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 57 cm. The considerable range among models was not only in the magnitude of ice lost, but also in the spatial pattern of response to identical forcing. Despite this variation, the response of any single model to a large range in the forcing intensity was remarkably linear in most cases. Additionally, the results of sensitivity experiments to single types of forcing (i.e., only one of the surface mass balance, or basal sliding, or ocean boundary melting) could be summed to accurately predict any model's result for an experiment when multiple forcings were applied simultaneously. This suggests a limited amount of feedback through the ice sheet's internal dynamics between these types of forcing over the time scale of a few centuries (SeaRISE experiments lasted 500 years).

Maritime Continent seasonal climate biases in AMIP experiments of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toh, Ying Ying; Turner, Andrew G.; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Holloway, Christopher E.

2018-02-01

The fidelity of 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating mean climate over the Maritime Continent in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment is evaluated in this study. The performance of AMIP models varies greatly in reproducing seasonal mean climate and the seasonal cycle. The multi-model mean has better skill at reproducing the observed mean climate than the individual models. The spatial pattern of 850 hPa wind is better simulated than the precipitation in all four seasons. We found that model horizontal resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Instead, a model's local Maritime Continent biases are somewhat related to its biases in the local Hadley circulation and global monsoon. The comparison with coupled models in CMIP5 shows that AMIP models generally performed better than coupled models in the simulation of the global monsoon and local Hadley circulation but less well at simulating the Maritime Continent annual cycle of precipitation. To characterize model systematic biases in the AMIP runs, we performed cluster analysis on Maritime Continent annual cycle precipitation. Our analysis resulted in two distinct clusters. Cluster I models are able to capture both the winter monsoon and summer monsoon shift, but they overestimate the precipitation; especially during the JJA and SON seasons. Cluster II models simulate weaker seasonal migration than observed, and the maximum rainfall position stays closer to the equator throughout the year. The tropics-wide properties of these clusters suggest a connection between the skill of simulating global properties of the monsoon circulation and the skill of simulating the regional scale of Maritime Continent precipitation.

Constructing superconductors by graphene Chern-Simons wormholes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capozziello, Salvatore; Pincak, Richard; Saridakis, Emmanuel N.

2018-03-01

We propose a new model which simulates the motion of free electrons in graphene by the evolution of strings on manifolds. In this model, molecules which constitute sheets of graphene are polygonal point-like structures which build (N + 1) -dimensional manifolds. By breaking the gravitational-analogue symmetry of graphene sheets, we show that two separated child sheets and a Chern-Simons bridge are produced giving rise to a wormhole. In this structure, free electrons are transmitted from one child sheet to the other producing superconductivity. An analogue between "effective gravitons" and "Cooper pairs" is found. In principle, this phenomenology provides the possibility to construct superconductor structures by using the analogue of cosmological models.

The use of platelet-rich fibrin combined with periodontal ligament and jaw bone mesenchymal stem cell sheets for periodontal tissue engineering

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhong-Shan; Feng, Zhi-Hong; Wu, Guo-Feng; Bai, Shi-Zhu; Dong, Yan; Chen, Fa-Ming; Zhao, Yi-Min

2016-01-01

Periodontal regeneration involves the restoration of at least three unique tissues: cementum, periodontal ligament tissue (PDL) and alveolar bone tissue. Here, we first isolated human PDL stem cells (PDLSCs) and jaw bone mesenchymal stem cells (JBMSCs). These cells were then induced to form cell sheets using an ascorbic acid-rich approach, and the cell sheet properties, including morphology, thickness and gene expression profile, were compared. Platelet-rich fibrin (PRF) derived from human venous blood was then fabricated into bioabsorbable fibrin scaffolds containing various growth factors. Finally, the in vivo potential of a cell-material construct based on PDLSC sheets, PRF scaffolds and JBMSC sheets to form periodontal tissue was assessed in a nude mouse model. In this model, PDLSC sheet/PRF/JBMSC sheet composites were placed in a simulated periodontal space comprising human treated dentin matrix (TDM) and hydroxyapatite (HA)/tricalcium phosphate (TCP) frameworks. Eight weeks after implantation, the PDLSC sheets tended to develop into PDL-like tissues, while the JBMSC sheets tended to produce predominantly bone-like tissues. In addition, the PDLSC sheet/PRF/JBMSC sheet composites generated periodontal tissue-like structures containing PDL- and bone-like tissues. Further improvements in this cell transplantation design may have the potential to provide an effective approach for future periodontal tissue regeneration. PMID:27324079

Free Wake Techniques for Rotor Aerodynamic Analylis. Volume 2: Vortex Sheet Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tanuwidjaja, A.

1982-01-01

Results of computations are presented using vortex sheets to model the wake and test the sensitivity of the solutions to various assumptions used in the development of the models. The complete codings are included.

Intercomparison of general circulation models for hot extrasolar planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polichtchouk, I.; Cho, J. Y.-K.; Watkins, C.; Thrastarson, H. Th.; Umurhan, O. M.; de la Torre Juárez, M.

2014-02-01

We compare five general circulation models (GCMs) which have been recently used to study hot extrasolar planet atmospheres (BOB, CAM, IGCM, MITgcm, and PEQMOD), under three test cases useful for assessing model convergence and accuracy. Such a broad, detailed intercomparison has not been performed thus far for extrasolar planets study. The models considered all solve the traditional primitive equations, but employ different numerical algorithms or grids (e.g., pseudospectral and finite volume, with the latter separately in longitude-latitude and ‘cubed-sphere’ grids). The test cases are chosen to cleanly address specific aspects of the behaviors typically reported in hot extrasolar planet simulations: (1) steady-state, (2) nonlinearly evolving baroclinic wave, and (3) response to fast timescale thermal relaxation. When initialized with a steady jet, all models maintain the steadiness, as they should-except MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid. A very good agreement is obtained for a baroclinic wave evolving from an initial instability in pseudospectral models (only). However, exact numerical convergence is still not achieved across the pseudospectral models: amplitudes and phases are observably different. When subject to a typical ‘hot-Jupiter’-like forcing, all five models show quantitatively different behavior-although qualitatively similar, time-variable, quadrupole-dominated flows are produced. Hence, as have been advocated in several past studies, specific quantitative predictions (such as the location of large vortices and hot regions) by GCMs should be viewed with caution. Overall, in the tests considered here, pseudospectral models in pressure coordinate (PEBOB and PEQMOD) perform the best and MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid performs the worst.

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation: 2. Comparison over nonuniform surface conditions

DOE PAGES

Daleu, C. L.; Plant, R. S.; Woolnough, S. J.; ...

2016-03-18

As part of an international intercomparison project, the weak temperature gradient (WTG) and damped gravity wave (DGW) methods are used to parameterize large-scale dynamics in a set of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and single column models (SCMs). The WTG or DGW method is implemented using a configuration that couples a model to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. We investigated the sensitivity of each model to changes in SST, given a fixed reference state. We performed a systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in different models, and a systematic comparison ofmore » the behavior of those models using the WTG method and the DGW method. The sensitivity to the SST depends on both the large-scale parameterization method and the choice of the cloud model. In general, SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. All CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show an increase of precipitation with SST, while SCMs show sensitivities which are not always monotonic. CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show a similar relationship between mean precipitation rate and column-relative humidity, while SCMs exhibit a much wider range of behaviors. DGW simulations produce large-scale velocity profiles which are smoother and less top-heavy compared to those produced by the WTG simulations. Lastly, these large-scale parameterization methods provide a useful tool to identify the impact of parameterization differences on model behavior in the presence of two-way feedback between convection and the large-scale circulation.« less

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large‐scale circulation: 2. Comparison over nonuniform surface conditions

PubMed Central

Plant, R. S.; Woolnough, S. J.; Sessions, S.; Herman, M. J.; Sobel, A.; Wang, S.; Kim, D.; Cheng, A.; Bellon, G.; Peyrille, P.; Ferry, F.; Siebesma, P.; van Ulft, L.

2016-01-01

Abstract As part of an international intercomparison project, the weak temperature gradient (WTG) and damped gravity wave (DGW) methods are used to parameterize large‐scale dynamics in a set of cloud‐resolving models (CRMs) and single column models (SCMs). The WTG or DGW method is implemented using a configuration that couples a model to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative‐convective equilibrium. We investigated the sensitivity of each model to changes in SST, given a fixed reference state. We performed a systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in different models, and a systematic comparison of the behavior of those models using the WTG method and the DGW method. The sensitivity to the SST depends on both the large‐scale parameterization method and the choice of the cloud model. In general, SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. All CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show an increase of precipitation with SST, while SCMs show sensitivities which are not always monotonic. CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show a similar relationship between mean precipitation rate and column‐relative humidity, while SCMs exhibit a much wider range of behaviors. DGW simulations produce large‐scale velocity profiles which are smoother and less top‐heavy compared to those produced by the WTG simulations. These large‐scale parameterization methods provide a useful tool to identify the impact of parameterization differences on model behavior in the presence of two‐way feedback between convection and the large‐scale circulation. PMID:27642501

The fourth radiation transfer model intercomparison (RAMI-IV): Proficiency testing of canopy reflectance models with ISO-13528

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widlowski, J.-L.; Pinty, B.; Lopatka, M.; Atzberger, C.; Buzica, D.; Chelle, M.; Disney, M.; Gastellu-Etchegorry, J.-P.; Gerboles, M.; Gobron, N.; Grau, E.; Huang, H.; Kallel, A.; Kobayashi, H.; Lewis, P. E.; Qin, W.; Schlerf, M.; Stuckens, J.; Xie, D.

2013-07-01

The radiation transfer model intercomparison (RAMI) activity aims at assessing the reliability of physics-based radiative transfer (RT) models under controlled experimental conditions. RAMI focuses on computer simulation models that mimic the interactions of radiation with plant canopies. These models are increasingly used in the development of satellite retrieval algorithms for terrestrial essential climate variables (ECVs). Rather than applying ad hoc performance metrics, RAMI-IV makes use of existing ISO standards to enhance the rigor of its protocols evaluating the quality of RT models. ISO-13528 was developed "to determine the performance of individual laboratories for specific tests or measurements." More specifically, it aims to guarantee that measurement results fall within specified tolerance criteria from a known reference. Of particular interest to RAMI is that ISO-13528 provides guidelines for comparisons where the true value of the target quantity is unknown. In those cases, "truth" must be replaced by a reliable "conventional reference value" to enable absolute performance tests. This contribution will show, for the first time, how the ISO-13528 standard developed by the chemical and physical measurement communities can be applied to proficiency testing of computer simulation models. Step by step, the pre-screening of data, the identification of reference solutions, and the choice of proficiency statistics will be discussed and illustrated with simulation results from the RAMI-IV "abstract canopy" scenarios. Detailed performance statistics of the participating RT models will be provided and the role of the accuracy of the reference solutions as well as the choice of the tolerance criteria will be highlighted.

The Plumbing of Land Surface Models: Is Poor Performance a Result of Methodology or Data Quality?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy J.; Or, Dani; Best, Martin J.; Johnson, Helen R.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Boone, Aaron; Cuntz, Matthais; Decharme, Bertrand;

Modeling Geoelectric Fields and Geomagnetically Induced Currents Around New Zealand to Explore GIC in the South Island's Electrical Transmission Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divett, T.; Ingham, M.; Beggan, C. D.; Richardson, G. S.; Rodger, C. J.; Thomson, A. W. P.; Dalzell, M.

2017-10-01

Transformers in New Zealand's South Island electrical transmission network have been impacted by geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) during geomagnetic storms. We explore the impact of GIC on this network by developing a thin-sheet conductance (TSC) model for the region, a geoelectric field model, and a GIC network model. (The TSC is composed of a thin-sheet conductance map with underlying layered resistivity structure.) Using modeling approaches that have been successfully used in the United Kingdom and Ireland, we applied a thin-sheet model to calculate the electric field as a function of magnetic field and ground conductance. We developed a TSC model based on magnetotelluric surveys, geology, and bathymetry, modified to account for offshore sediments. Using this representation, the thin sheet model gave good agreement with measured impedance vectors. Driven by a spatially uniform magnetic field variation, the thin-sheet model results in electric fields dominated by the ocean-land boundary with effects due to the deep ocean and steep terrain. There is a strong tendency for the electric field to align northwest-southeast, irrespective of the direction of the magnetic field. Applying this electric field to a GIC network model, we show that modeled GIC are dominated by northwest-southeast transmission lines rather than east-west lines usually assumed to dominate.

Inspiration & Insight - a tribute to Niels Reeh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlstrom, A. P.; Vieli, A.

2009-12-01

Niels Reeh was highly regarded for his contributions to glaciology, specifically through his rigorous combination of numerical modelling and field observations. In 1966 he began his work on the application of beam mechanics to floating glaciers and ice shelves and throughout his life, Niels retained a strong interest in modelling glacier dynamics. In the early 1980s Niels developed a 3D-model for ice sheets and in the late 1980s an advanced flow-line model. Niels Reeh also took part in the early ice-core drilling efforts in Greenland and later pioneered the concept of retrieving similar records from the surface of the ice-sheet margin. Mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets was another theme in Niels Reeh’s research, with a number of important contributions and insights still used when teaching the subject to students. Niels developed elegant models for ablation and snow densification, notable for their applicability in large-scale ice-sheet models and studied the impact of climate change on ice sheets and glaciers. Niels also took his interest in ice-dynamics and mass balance into remote sensing and worked successfully on methods to utilize radar and laser data from airborne surveys and satellites in glaciology. In this, he pioneered the combination of field experiments, satellite observations and numerical modelling to solve problems on the Greenland Ice Sheet. In this presentation we will attempt to provide an overview of Niels Reeh’s many-facetted career in acknowledgement of his contributions to the field of glaciology.

Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, Ben; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier; Robock, Alan; Rasch, Philip J.; Alterskjær, Kari; Karam, Diana Bou; Cole, Jason N. S.; Curry, Charles L.; Haywood, James M.; Irvine, Peter J.; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Andy; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Lunt, Daniel J.; Moore, John C.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, Michael; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting; Yoon, Jin-Ho

2013-08-01

geoengineering—deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth—has been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2 mm day-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.

Climate Model Response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier

2013-08-09

Solar geoengineering—deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth—has been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwisemore » occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2mmday-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.« less

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Haywood, Alan M.; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brierley, Chris; Crucifix, Michel; Dolan, Aisling; Fernandez-Donado, Laura; Fischer, Hubertus; Hopcroft, Peter O.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Lambert, Fabrice; Lunt, Daniel J.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Peltier, W. Richard; Phipps, Steven J.; Roche, Didier M.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Tarasov, Lev; Valdes, Paul J.; Zhang, Qiong; Zhou, Tianjun

2018-03-01

This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) - Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016).The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127 000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.

Ardnamurchan 3D cone-sheet architecture explained by a single elongate magma chamber

PubMed Central

Burchardt, Steffi; Troll, Valentin R.; Mathieu, Lucie; Emeleus, Henry C.; Donaldson, Colin H.

2013-01-01

The Palaeogene Ardnamurchan central igneous complex, NW Scotland, was a defining place for the development of the classic concepts of cone-sheet and ring-dyke emplacement and has thus fundamentally influenced our thinking on subvolcanic structures. We have used the available structural information on Ardnamurchan to project the underlying three-dimensional (3D) cone-sheet structure. Here we show that a single elongate magma chamber likely acted as the source of the cone-sheet swarm(s) instead of the traditionally accepted model of three successive centres. This proposal is supported by the ridge-like morphology of the Ardnamurchan volcano and is consistent with the depth and elongation of the gravity anomaly underlying the peninsula. Our model challenges the traditional model of cone-sheet emplacement at Ardnamurchan that involves successive but independent centres in favour of a more dynamical one that involves a single, but elongate and progressively evolving magma chamber system. PMID:24100542

Ardnamurchan 3D cone-sheet architecture explained by a single elongate magma chamber.

PubMed

Burchardt, Steffi; Troll, Valentin R; Mathieu, Lucie; Emeleus, Henry C; Donaldson, Colin H

2013-10-08

The Palaeogene Ardnamurchan central igneous complex, NW Scotland, was a defining place for the development of the classic concepts of cone-sheet and ring-dyke emplacement and has thus fundamentally influenced our thinking on subvolcanic structures. We have used the available structural information on Ardnamurchan to project the underlying three-dimensional (3D) cone-sheet structure. Here we show that a single elongate magma chamber likely acted as the source of the cone-sheet swarm(s) instead of the traditionally accepted model of three successive centres. This proposal is supported by the ridge-like morphology of the Ardnamurchan volcano and is consistent with the depth and elongation of the gravity anomaly underlying the peninsula. Our model challenges the traditional model of cone-sheet emplacement at Ardnamurchan that involves successive but independent centres in favour of a more dynamical one that involves a single, but elongate and progressively evolving magma chamber system.

Retrieving Ice Basal Motion Using the Hydrologically Coupled JPL/UCI Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khakbaz, B.; Morlighem, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.

2011-12-01

The study of basal sliding in ice sheets requires coupling ice-flow models with subglacial water flow. In fact, subglacial hydrology models can be used to model basal water-pressure explicitly and to generate basal sliding velocities. This study addresses the addition of a thin-film-based subglacial hydrologic module to the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) developed by JPL in collaboration with the University of California Irvine (UCI). The subglacial hydrology model follows the study of J. Johnson (2002) who assumed a non-arborscent distributed drainage system in the form of a thin film beneath ice sheets. The differential equation that arises from conservation of mass in the water system is solved numerically with the finite element method in order to obtain the spatial distribution of basal water over the study domain. The resulting sheet water thickness is then used to model the basal water-pressure and subsequently the basal sliding velocity. In this study, an introduction and preliminary results of the subglacial water flow and basal sliding velocity will be presented for the Pine Island Glacier west Antarctica.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) Program.

3D modelling of the Tejeda Caldera cone-sheet swarm, Gran Canaria, Canary Islands, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samrock, Lisa K.; Jensen, Max J.; Burchardt, Steffi; Troll, Valentin R.; Mattsson, Tobias; Geiger, Harri

2015-04-01

Cone-sheet swarms provide vital information on the interior of volcanic systems and their plumbing systems (e.g. Burchardt et al. 2013). This information is important for the interpretation of processes and dynamics of modern and ancient volcanic systems, and is therefore vital for assessing volcanic hazards and to reduce risks to modern society. To more realistically model cone-sheet emplacement an approximation of their 3D shape needs to be known. Most cone-sheet swarms are not sufficiently exposed laterally and/or vertically, however, which makes it difficult to determine the geometry of a cone-sheet swarm at depth, especially since different shapes (e.g. convex, straight or concave continuations) would produce a similar trace at the surface (cf. Burchardt et al. 2011, and references therein). The Miocene Tejeda Caldera on Gran Canaria, Canary Islands, Spain, hosts a cone-sheet swarm that was emplaced into volcaniclastic caldera infill at about 12.3-7.3 Ma (Schirnick et al. 1999). The dyke swarm displays over 1000 m of vertical exposure and more than 15 km of horizontal exposure, making it a superb locality to study the evolution of cone-sheet swarms in detail and to determine its actual geometry in 3D space. We have used structural data of Schirnick (1996) to model the geometry of the Tejeda cone-sheet in 3D, using the software Move® by Midland Valley Ltd. Based on previous 2D projections, Schirnick et al. (1999) suggested that the cone-sheet swarm is formed by a stack of parallel intrusive sheets which have a truncated dome geometry and form a concentric structure around a central axis, assuming straight sheet-intrusions. Our 3D model gives insight into the symmetries of the sheets and the overall geometry of the cone-sheet swarm below the surface. This visualization now allows to grasp the complexity of the Tejeda cone-sheet swarm at depth, particularly in relation to different possible cone-sheet geometries suggested in the literature (cf. Burchardt et al. 2011, and references therein), and we discuss the implications of this architecture for the feeding system of the Tejeda volcano and the associated temporal variations of cone-sheet emplacement. References: Burchardt, S., Tanner, D.C., Troll, V.R., Krumbholz, M., Gustafsson, L.E. (2011) Three-dimensional geometry of concentric intrusive sheet swarms in the Geitafell and the Dyrfjöll volcanoes, eastern Iceland. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 12(7): Q0AB09. Burchardt, S., Troll, V.R., Mathieu, L., Emeleus, H.C., Donaldson, C.H. (2013) Ardnamruchan 3D cone-sheet architecture explained by a single elongate magma chamber. Scientific Reports 3:2891. Schirnick, C. (1996) Formation of an intracaldera cone sheet dike swarm (Tejeda Caldera, Gran Canaria) (Dissertation). Christian-Albrechts-Universität, Kiel, Germany. Schirnick, C., van den Bogaard, P., Schmincke, H.-U. (1999) Cone-sheet formation and intrusive growth of an oceanic island - The Miocene Tejeda complex on Gran Canaria (Canary Islands). Geology, 27: 207-210.

The Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) Software Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenslade, M. A.; Murphy, S.; Treshansky, A.; DeLuca, C.; Guilyardi, E.; Denvil, S.

2013-12-01

Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) is an international project supplying high-quality tools & services in support of earth system documentation creation, analysis and dissemination. It is nurturing a sustainable standards based documentation eco-system that aims to become an integral part of the next generation of exa-scale dataset archives. ES-DOC leverages open source software, and applies a software development methodology that places end-user narratives at the heart of all it does. ES-DOC has initially focused upon nurturing the Earth System Model (ESM) documentation eco-system and currently supporting the following projects: * Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5); * Dynamical Core Model Inter-comparison Project (DCMIP); * National Climate Predictions and Projections Platforms Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop. This talk will demonstrate that ES-DOC implements a relatively mature software development process. Taking a pragmatic Agile process as inspiration, ES-DOC: * Iteratively develops and releases working software; * Captures user requirements via a narrative based approach; * Uses online collaboration tools (e.g. Earth System CoG) to manage progress; * Prototypes applications to validate their feasibility; * Leverages meta-programming techniques where appropriate; * Automates testing whenever sensibly feasible; * Streamlines complex deployments to a single command; * Extensively leverages GitHub and Pivotal Tracker; * Enforces strict separation of the UI from underlying API's; * Conducts code reviews.

Antarctic ice sheet thickness estimation using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method with single-station seismic ambient noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Peng; Li, Zhiwei; Li, Fei; Yang, Yuande; Hao, Weifeng; Bao, Feng

2018-03-01

We report on a successful application of the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (H / V) method, generally used to investigate the subsurface velocity structures of the shallow crust, to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet thickness for the first time. Using three-component, five-day long, seismic ambient noise records gathered from more than 60 temporary seismic stations located on the Antarctic ice sheet, the ice thickness measured at each station has comparable accuracy to the Bedmap2 database. Preliminary analysis revealed that 60 out of 65 seismic stations on the ice sheet obtained clear peak frequencies (f0) related to the ice sheet thickness in the H / V spectrum. Thus, assuming that the isotropic ice layer lies atop a high velocity half-space bedrock, the ice sheet thickness can be calculated by a simple approximation formula. About half of the calculated ice sheet thicknesses were consistent with the Bedmap2 ice thickness values. To further improve the reliability of ice thickness measurements, two-type models were built to fit the observed H / V spectrum through non-linear inversion. The two-type models represent the isotropic structures of single- and two-layer ice sheets, and the latter depicts the non-uniform, layered characteristics of the ice sheet widely distributed in Antarctica. The inversion results suggest that the ice thicknesses derived from the two-layer ice models were in good concurrence with the Bedmap2 ice thickness database, and that ice thickness differences between the two were within 300 m at almost all stations. Our results support previous finding that the Antarctic ice sheet is stratified. Extensive data processing indicates that the time length of seismic ambient noise records can be shortened to two hours for reliable ice sheet thickness estimation using the H / V method. This study extends the application fields of the H / V method and provides an effective and independent way to measure ice sheet thickness in Antarctica.

Inferring Ice Thickness from a Glacier Dynamics Model and Multiple Surface Datasets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Y.; Haran, M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have a major impact on future climate. For instance, ice sheet melt may contribute significantly to global sea level rise. Understanding the current state of WAIS is therefore of great interest. WAIS is drained by fast-flowing glaciers which are major contributors to ice loss. Hence, understanding the stability and dynamics of glaciers is critical for predicting the future of the ice sheet. Glacier dynamics are driven by the interplay between the topography, temperature and basal conditions beneath the ice. A glacier dynamics model describes the interactions between these processes. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that integrates multiple ice sheet surface data sets with a glacier dynamics model. Our approach allows us to (1) infer important parameters describing the glacier dynamics, (2) learn about ice sheet thickness, and (3) account for errors in the observations and the model. Because we have relatively dense and accurate ice thickness data from the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, we use these data to validate the proposed approach. The long-term goal of this work is to have a general model that may be used to study multiple glaciers in the Antarctic.

Computation of Incompressible Potential Flow over an Airfoil Using a High Order Aerodynamic Panel Method Based on Circular Arc Panels.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-08-01

Vortex Sheet Figure 4 - Properties of Singularity Sheets they may be used to model different types of flow. Transfer of boundary... Vortex Sheet Equivalence Singularity Behavior Using Green’s theorem it is clear that the problem of potential flow over a body can be modeled using ...that source, doublet, or vortex singularities can be used to model potential flow problems, and that the doublet and vortex singularities are

Assessing the formability of metallic sheets by means of localized and diffuse necking models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comşa, Dan-Sorin; Lǎzǎrescu, Lucian; Banabic, Dorel

2016-10-01

The main objective of the paper consists in elaborating a unified framework that allows the theoretical assessment of sheet metal formability. Hill's localized necking model and the Extended Maximum Force Criterion proposed by Mattiasson, Sigvant, and Larsson have been selected for this purpose. Both models are thoroughly described together with their solution procedures. A comparison of the theoretical predictions with experimental data referring to the formability of a DP600 steel sheet is also presented by the authors.

Observational support for the current sheet catastrophe model of substorm current disruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burkhart, G. R.; Lopez, R. E.; Dusenbery, P. B.; Speiser, T. W.

1992-01-01

The principles of the current sheet catastrophe models are briefly reviewed, and observations of some of the signatures predicted by the theory are presented. The data considered here include AMPTE/CCE observations of fifteen current sheet disruption events. According to the model proposed here, the root cause of the current disruption is some process, as yet unknown, that leads to an increase in the k sub A parameter. Possible causes for the increase in k sub A are discussed.

Buckling and stretching of thin viscous sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Kiely, Doireann; Breward, Chris; Griffiths, Ian; Howell, Peter; Lange, Ulrich

2016-11-01

Thin glass sheets are used in smartphone, battery and semiconductor technology, and may be manufactured by producing a relatively thick glass slab and subsequently redrawing it to a required thickness. The resulting sheets commonly possess undesired centerline ripples and thick edges. We present a mathematical model in which a viscous sheet undergoes redraw in the direction of gravity, and show that, in a sufficiently strong gravitational field, buckling is driven by compression in a region near the bottom of the sheet, and limited by viscous resistance to stretching of the sheet. We use asymptotic analysis in the thin-sheet, low-Reynolds-number limit to determine the centerline profile and growth rate of such a viscous sheet.

Improving Climate Literacy Using The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM): A Prototype Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory For Use In K-12 Classrooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halkides, D. J.; Larour, E. Y.; Perez, G.; Petrie, K.; Nguyen, L.

2013-12-01

Statistics indicate that most Americans learn what they will know about science within the confines of our public K-12 education system and the media. Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) aim to remedy science illiteracy and provide guidelines to exceed the Common Core State Standards that most U.S. state governments have adopted, by integrating disciplinary cores with crosscutting ideas and real life practices. In this vein, we present a prototype ';Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory' (I-Lab), geared to K-12 students, educators and interested members of the general public. I-Lab will allow users to perform experiments using a state-of-the-art dynamical ice sheet model and provide detailed downloadable lesson plans, which incorporate this model and are consistent with NGSS Physical Science criteria for different grade bands (K-2, 3-5, 6-8, and 9-12). The ultimate goal of this website is to improve public climate science literacy, especially in regards to the crucial role of the polar ice sheets in Earth's climate and sea level. The model used will be the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), an ice flow model developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and UC Irvine, that simulates the near-term evolution of polar ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and includes high spatial resolution capabilities and data assimilation to produce realistic simulations of ice sheet dynamics at the continental scale. Open sourced since 2011, ISSM is used in cutting edge cryosphere research around the globe. Thru I-Lab, students will be able to access ISSM using a simple, online graphical interface that can be launched from a web browser on a computer, tablet or smart phone. The interface will allow users to select different climate conditions and watch how the polar ice sheets evolve in time under those conditions. Lesson contents will include links to background material and activities that teach observation recording, concept articulation, hypothesis formulation and testing, and critical problem solving appropriate to grade level.

Ice stream activity scaled to ice sheet volume during Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation.

PubMed

Stokes, C R; Margold, M; Clark, C D; Tarasov, L

2016-02-18

The contribution of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to sea level has increased in recent decades, largely owing to the thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers and ice streams. This dynamic loss is a serious concern, with some modelling studies suggesting that the collapse of a major ice sheet could be imminent or potentially underway in West Antarctica, but others predicting a more limited response. A major problem is that observations used to initialize and calibrate models typically span only a few decades, and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves over longer timescales. This represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty when predicting the contributions of ice sheets to sea-level rise. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. Here we reconstruct the activity of 117 ice streams that operated at various times during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (from about 22,000 to 7,000 years ago) and show that as they activated and deactivated in different locations, their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter and their total discharge decreased. The underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but--at the ice-sheet scale--their drainage network adjusted and was linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings can be directly translated to modern ice sheets. However, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can accelerate ice-sheet deglaciation, we conclude that ice streams exerted progressively less influence on ice sheet mass balance during the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.

Looking beyond general metrics for model comparison - lessons from an international model intercomparison study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer-Euser, Tanja; Bouaziz, Laurène; De Niel, Jan; Brauer, Claudia; Dewals, Benjamin; Drogue, Gilles; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Grelier, Benjamin; Nossent, Jiri; Pereira, Fernando; Savenije, Hubert; Thirel, Guillaume; Willems, Patrick

2017-01-01

International collaboration between research institutes and universities is a promising way to reach consensus on hydrological model development. Although model comparison studies are very valuable for international cooperation, they do often not lead to very clear new insights regarding the relevance of the modelled processes. We hypothesise that this is partly caused by model complexity and the comparison methods used, which focus too much on a good overall performance instead of focusing on a variety of specific events. In this study, we use an approach that focuses on the evaluation of specific events and characteristics. Eight international research groups calibrated their hourly model on the Ourthe catchment in Belgium and carried out a validation in time for the Ourthe catchment and a validation in space for nested and neighbouring catchments. The same protocol was followed for each model and an ensemble of best-performing parameter sets was selected. Although the models showed similar performances based on general metrics (i.e. the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency), clear differences could be observed for specific events. We analysed the hydrographs of these specific events and conducted three types of statistical analyses on the entire time series: cumulative discharges, empirical extreme value distribution of the peak flows and flow duration curves for low flows. The results illustrate the relevance of including a very quick flow reservoir preceding the root zone storage to model peaks during low flows and including a slow reservoir in parallel with the fast reservoir to model the recession for the studied catchments. This intercomparison enhanced the understanding of the hydrological functioning of the catchment, in particular for low flows, and enabled to identify present knowledge gaps for other parts of the hydrograph. Above all, it helped to evaluate each model against a set of alternative models.

Analysis of precipitation teleconnections in CMIP models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.

2011-12-01

The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.

Sea-level and solid-Earth deformation feedbacks in ice sheet modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, Hannes; Sasgen, Ingo; Klemann, Volker; Thoma, Malte; Grosfeld, Klaus; Martinec, Zdeněk

2014-05-01

The interactions of ice sheets with the sea level and the solid Earth are important factors for the stability of the ice shelves and the tributary inland ice (e.g. Thomas and Bentley, 1978; Gomez et al, 2012). First, changes in ice extent and ice thickness induce viscoelastic deformation of the Earth surface and Earth's gravity field. In turn, global and local changes in sea level and bathymetry affect the grounding line and, subsequently, alter the ice dynamic behaviour. Here, we investigate these feedbacks for a synthetic ice sheet configuration as well as for the Antarctic ice sheet using a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet and shelf model, coupled to a viscoelastic solid-Earth and gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model. The respective ice sheet undergoes a forcing from rising sea level, warming ocean, and/or changing surface mass balance. The coupling is realized by exchanging ice thickness, Earth surface deformation and sea level periodically. We apply several sets of viscoelastic Earth parameters to our coupled model, e.g. simulating a low-viscous upper mantle present at the Antarctic Peninsula (Ivins et al., 2011). Special focus of our study lies on the evolution of Earth surface deformation and local sea level changes, as well as on the accompanying grounding line evolution. N. Gomez, D. Pollard, J. X. Mitrovica, P. Huybers, and P. U. Clark 2012. Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet-sea level model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F01013, doi:10.1029/2011JF002128. E. R. Ivins, M. M. Watkins, D.-N. Yuan, R. Dietrich, G. Casassa, and A. Rülke 2011. On-land ice loss and glacial isostatic adjustment at the Drake Passage: 2003-2009, J. Geophys. Res. 116, B02403, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007607 R. H. Thomas and C. R. Bentley 1978. A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Quaternary Research, 10 (2), pages 150-170, doi: 10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4.

Modelling large-scale ice-sheet-climate interactions at the last glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Browne, O. J. H.; Gregory, J. M.; Payne, A. J.; Ridley, J. K.; Rutt, I. C.

2010-05-01

In order to investigate the interactions between coevolving climate and ice-sheets on multimillenial timescales, a low-resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) has been coupled to a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model. We use the FAMOUS AOGCM, which is almost identical in formulation to the widely used HadCM3 AOGCM, but on account of its lower resolution (7.5° longitude × 5° latitude in the atmosphere, 3.75°× 2.5° in the ocean) it runs about ten times faster. We use the community ice-sheet model Glimmer at 20 km resolution, with the shallow ice approximation and an annual degree-day scheme for surface mass balance. With the FAMOUS-Glimmer coupled model, we have simulated the growth of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets at the last glacial inception, under constant orbital forcing and atmospheric composition for 116 ka BP. Ice grows in both regions, totalling 5.8 m of sea-level equivalent in 10 ka, slower than proxy records suggest. Positive climate feedbacks reinforce this growth at local scales (order hundreds of kilometres), where changes are an order of magnitude larger than on the global average. The albedo feedback (higher local albedo means a cooler climate) is important in the initial expansion of the ice-sheet area. The topography feedback (higher surface means a cooler climate) affects ice-sheet thickness and is not noticeable for the first 1 ka. These two feedbacks reinforce each other. Without them, the ice volume is ~90% less after 10 ka. In Laurentia, ice expands initially on the Canadian Arctic islands. The glaciation of the islands eventually cools the nearby mainland climate sufficiently to produce a positive mass balance there. Adjacent to the ice-sheets, cloud feedbacks tend to reduce the surface mass balance and restrain ice growth; this is an example of a local feedback whose simulation requires a model that includes detailed atmospheric physics.

Optimization of CO2 laser cutting parameters on Austenitic type Stainless steel sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parthiban, A.; Sathish, S.; Chandrasekaran, M.; Ravikumar, R.

2017-03-01

Thin AISI 316L stainless steel sheet widely used in sheet metal processing industries for specific applications. CO2 laser cutting is one of the most popular sheet metal cutting processes for cutting of sheets in different profile. In present work various cutting parameters such as laser power (2000 watts-4000 watts), cutting speed (3500mm/min - 5500 mm/min) and assist gas pressure (0.7 Mpa-0.9Mpa) for cutting of AISI 316L 2mm thickness stainless sheet. This experimentation was conducted based on Box-Behenken design. The aim of this work is to develop a mathematical model kerf width for straight and curved profile through response surface methodology. The developed mathematical models for straight and curved profile have been compared. The Quadratic models have the best agreement with experimental data, and also the shape of the profile a substantial role in achieving to minimize the kerf width. Finally the numerical optimization technique has been used to find out best optimum laser cutting parameter for both straight and curved profile cut.

The atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft. Report of the 1992 Models and Measurements Workshop. Volume 1: Workshop objectives and summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prather, Michael J. (Editor); Remsburg, Ellis E. (Editor)

1993-01-01

This Workshop on Stratospheric Models and Measurements (M&M) marks a significant expansion in the history of model intercomparisons. It provides a foundation for establishing the credibility of stratospheric models used in environmental assessments of chlorofluorocarbons, aircraft emissions, and climate-chemistry interactions. The core of the M&M comparisons involves the selection of observations of the current stratosphere (i.e., within the last 15 years): these data are believed to be accurate and representative of certain aspects of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics that the models should be able to simulate.

The atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft. Report of the 1992 Models and Measurements Workshop. Volume 2: Comparisons with global atmospheric measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prather, Michael J. (Editor); Remsberg, Ellis E. (Editor)

1993-01-01

This Workshop on Stratospheric Models and Measurements (M&M) marks a significant expansion in the history of model intercomparisons. It provides a foundation for establishing the credibility of stratospheric models used in environmental assessments of chlorofluorocarbons, aircraft emissions, and climate-chemistry interactions. The core of the M&M comparisons involves the selection of observations of the current stratosphere (i.e., within the last 15 years): these data are believed to be accurate and representative of certain aspects of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics that the models should be able to simulate.

The atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft. Report of the 1992 Models and Measurements Workshop. Volume 3: Special diagnostic studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prather, Michael J. (Editor); Remsberg, Ellis E. (Editor)

1993-01-01

This Workshop on Stratospheric Models and Measurements (M&M) marks a significant expansion in the history of model intercomparisons. It provides a foundation for establishing the credibility of stratospheric models used in environmental assessments of chlorofluorocarbons, aircraft emissions, and climate-chemistry interactions. The core of the M&M comparisons involves the selection of observations of the current stratosphere (i.e., within the last 15 years): these data are believed to be accurate and representative of certain aspects of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics that the models should be able to simulate.

International land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Package v002.00

DOE Data Explorer

Collier, Nathaniel [Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Hoffman, Forrest M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Mu, Mingquan [University of California, Irvine; Randerson, James T. [University of California, Irvine; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

2016-05-09

As a contribution to International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Project, we are providing new analysis approaches, benchmarking tools, and science leadership. The goal of ILAMB is to assess and improve the performance of land models through international cooperation and to inform the design of new measurement campaigns and field studies to reduce uncertainties associated with key biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. ILAMB is expected to be a primary analysis tool for CMIP6 and future model-data intercomparison experiments. This team has developed initial prototype benchmarking systems for ILAMB, which will be improved and extended to include ocean model metrics and diagnostics.

International land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Package v001.00

DOE Data Explorer

Mu, Mingquan [University of California, Irvine; Randerson, James T. [University of California, Irvine; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Hoffman, Forrest M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory

2016-05-02

As a contribution to International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Project, we are providing new analysis approaches, benchmarking tools, and science leadership. The goal of ILAMB is to assess and improve the performance of land models through international cooperation and to inform the design of new measurement campaigns and field studies to reduce uncertainties associated with key biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. ILAMB is expected to be a primary analysis tool for CMIP6 and future model-data intercomparison experiments. This team has developed initial prototype benchmarking systems for ILAMB, which will be improved and extended to include ocean model metrics and diagnostics.

The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB V1.0) Contribution to CMIP6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Kovats, R. Sari;

Assessment of malaria transmission changes in Africa, due to the climate impact of land use change using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 earth system models.

PubMed

Tompkins, Adrian M; Caporaso, Luca

2016-03-31

Using mathematical modelling tools, we assessed the potential for land use change (LUC) associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change low- and high-end emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) to impact malaria transmission in Africa. To drive a spatially explicit, dynamical malaria model, data from the four available earth system models (ESMs) that contributed to the LUC experiment of the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project are used. Despite the limited size of the ESM ensemble, stark differences in the assessment of how LUC can impact climate are revealed. In three out of four ESMs, the impact of LUC on precipitation and temperature over the next century is limited, resulting in no significant change in malaria transmission. However, in one ESM, LUC leads to increases in precipitation under scenario RCP2.6, and increases in temperature in areas of land use conversion to farmland under both scenarios. The result is a more intense transmission and longer transmission seasons in the southeast of the continent, most notably in Mozambique and southern Tanzania. In contrast, warming associated with LUC in the Sahel region reduces risk in this model, as temperatures are already above the 25-30°C threshold at which transmission peaks. The differences between the ESMs emphasise the uncertainty in such assessments. It is also recalled that the modelling framework is unable to adequately represent local-scale changes in climate due to LUC, which some field studies indicate could be significant.

Landfast ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howell, Stephen E. L.; Laliberté, Frédéric; Kwok, Ron; Derksen, Chris; King, Joshua

2016-07-01

Observed and modelled landfast ice thickness variability and trends spanning more than 5 decades within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) are summarized. The observed sites (Cambridge Bay, Resolute, Eureka and Alert) represent some of the Arctic's longest records of landfast ice thickness. Observed end-of-winter (maximum) trends of landfast ice thickness (1957-2014) were statistically significant at Cambridge Bay (-4.31 ± 1.4 cm decade-1), Eureka (-4.65 ± 1.7 cm decade-1) and Alert (-4.44 ± 1.6 cm -1) but not at Resolute. Over the 50+-year record, the ice thinned by ˜ 0.24-0.26 m at Cambridge Bay, Eureka and Alert with essentially negligible change at Resolute. Although statistically significant warming in spring and fall was present at all sites, only low correlations between temperature and maximum ice thickness were present; snow depth was found to be more strongly associated with the negative ice thickness trends. Comparison with multi-model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5), Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison (ORA-IP) and Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) show that although a subset of current generation models have a "reasonable" climatological representation of landfast ice thickness and distribution within the CAA, trends are unrealistic and far exceed observations by up to 2 orders of magnitude. ORA-IP models were found to have positive correlations between temperature and ice thickness over the CAA, a feature that is inconsistent with both observations and coupled models from CMIP5.

The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Sari Kovats, R.; Lotze, Heike K.; Mearns, Linda O.; Navarra, Antonio; Ojima, Dennis S.; Riahi, Keywan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Themessl, Matthias; Vincent, Katharine

2016-09-01

This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.